live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog

Below are projections for the end-of-season RPIs for all D1 basketball teams.


How does the RPI Forecast work?

Some numbers (e.g., 1-50 W-L, 51-100 W-L, etc.) are rounded and may not sum up to totals.

EXPECTED RPI RANK is the best estimate for an individual team of its end-of-season RPI Rank. Because they are expectations, they do not have to be 1, 2, 3, etc.
OVERALL is the one most likely overall outcome for all Division 1 teams if I am forced to rank teams 1, 2, 3, etc. It corresponds to the RPI Forecast number column and may not be the same as ranking the Expected RPI Rank column.

Tweet
Through games of Jan 16, 2017.


ExpectedRPISOSSOS RankCurrentProjected1-2526-5051-100101-200200+Non Conf ForecastsCurrentOver-
OverallRPI RankTeamConfForecastForecastForecastW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LRPISOSRPIRatedt-stat
77.3LouisvilleACC0.64880.6091115-324-74-54-15-18-03-012-12670.30.1
36.1BaylorB120.65400.6045215-124-64-35-16-16-13-012-01424.10.8
4953.1PittsburghACC0.57210.6012312-616-152-72-24-27-22-111-218313716.11.0
8285.3VanderbiltSEC0.54810.598948-914-171-61-44-55-23-06-78817510.30.4
8084.6NebraskaB100.54870.598158-813-161-53-53-54-22-15-610624638.61.6
1112.6VirginiaACC0.63470.5969613-323-74-53-16-15-04-010-2204618-5.4-0.9
46.7North CarolinaACC0.65060.5953716-325-65-34-17-13-15-011-2103311-4.3-0.9
67.1KansasB120.64970.5942817-125-64-34-17-18-02-011-282043.10.6
88.2ButlerBE0.64600.5916916-324-65-34-18-13-25-111-131235.21.0
911.1FloridaSEC0.63860.59101014-324-71-54-18-17-14-010-314956.11.1
4045.3Michigan St.B100.57980.59101112-718-132-63-25-44-14-08-570163510.30.6
1514.9DukeACC0.62940.59091214-423-84-54-15-16-04-012-195915-0.1-0.0
4450.5Wake ForestACC0.57450.58831310-716-141-81-34-27-14-09-322283020.51.2
142145.1TexasB120.51350.5874147-1011-201-61-63-53-33-06-718873164-18.9-0.7
2324.0XavierBE0.60940.58671513-521-102-62-16-26-14-010-31527213.00.3
25.0KentuckySEC0.65570.58621615-227-44-33-08-09-04-011-2738-3.0-0.8
5256.6Oklahoma St.B120.56960.5857179-716-141-72-34-25-24-010-2296058-1.4-0.1
2426.0MinnesotaB100.60580.58531815-422-91-34-37-37-12-012-16231412.01.3
8688.6GeorgetownBE0.54630.58431910-915-162-71-32-45-15-09-4733994-5.4-0.2
13.3VillanovaBE0.66280.58392018-128-36-23-08-16-05-013-052512.30.8
7275.5TennesseeSEC0.55480.5835218-815-150-81-24-35-25-07-510313696.50.3
144145.5OklahomaB120.51300.5812227-911-191-82-42-41-35-16-6187124147-1.5-0.1
8588.3StanfordP120.54670.5810239-814-150-71-32-36-25-07-43685632.31.3
4652.0GeorgiaSEC0.57310.58042410-617-131-50-24-39-23-08-46935439.00.5
2935.9TCUB120.59120.57952513-320-101-52-24-29-13-011-117912411.90.8
1615.1Florida St.ACC0.62880.57952616-224-75-33-15-15-15-012-127130105.10.7
3944.2ClemsonACC0.58070.57942711-618-122-63-25-24-24-010-23295422.20.1
6975.6IllinoisB100.55560.57792811-616-141-42-44-45-24-09-351404431.61.3
9192.8North Carolina St.ACC0.54350.57522912-616-151-71-33-37-24-011-2301035240.81.7
3844.2Iowa St.B120.58110.57333011-619-112-72-14-26-25-09-39116650-5.8-0.4
ExpectedRPISOSSOS RankCurrentProjected1-2526-5051-100101-200200+Non Conf ForecastsCurrentOver-
OverallRPI RankTeamConfForecastForecastForecastW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LRPISOSRPIRatedt-stat
1011.6ArizonaP120.63680.57263116-226-51-43-16-011-15-011-2132212-0.4-0.1
8890.3Penn St.B100.54490.57223211-716-151-52-42-47-33-08-5128856822.31.0
6572.0Ohio St.B100.55760.57123311-718-131-53-45-34-15-110-36711183-11.0-0.5
4146.3IndianaB100.57930.57083412-620-113-52-34-23-17-010-36612588-41.7-2.4
1212.8OregonP120.63440.56873515-225-52-23-17-29-15-010-2254213-0.2-0.0
2121.5Notre DameACC0.61430.56783616-224-73-53-14-17-06-011-255174201.50.2
149148.7LSUSEC0.51100.5666379-712-180-31-43-74-44-08-4462412622.70.9
7779.2ProvidenceBE0.55240.56633813-717-141-72-14-24-26-110-3611405128.21.3
6269.0MichiganB100.56000.56533912-618-131-43-44-35-15-010-36011478-9.0-0.4
124127.3Arizona St.P120.52350.5648409-914-170-71-32-34-36-17-61578711314.30.6
2223.5PurdueB100.61030.56404114-424-72-34-26-17-15-011-23511336-12.5-1.7
9596.5MississippiSEC0.54130.56384210-716-150-50-33-48-25-19-449214749.51.9
2527.8South CarolinaSEC0.60270.56244313-322-81-23-17-37-14-09-34570261.80.2
5964.9Seton HallBE0.56280.56224412-617-132-72-12-34-17-010-2501853925.91.2
103102.5SyracuseACC0.53760.56214511-816-152-62-24-24-35-08-5184183136-33.5-1.2
5054.7Miami FLACC0.57100.56174612-419-112-71-24-25-16-010-29527873-18.3-0.9
1313.7CreightonBE0.63180.56164717-125-54-32-17-18-05-012-01216267.71.4
121122.6Georgia TechACC0.52560.56074811-614-162-52-32-53-26-08-41652519131.61.3
154151.9St. John'sBE0.50940.5601499-1112-191-70-42-51-27-26-72232341447.90.4
9898.8Texas A&MSEC0.53980.5593509-716-140-61-33-34-27-08-48645980.80.0
198196.2Boston CollegeACC0.48540.5589519-911-200-61-43-54-43-27-624024718115.20.7
140141.5WashingtonP120.51510.5583528-913-171-61-41-43-47-07-5149144176-34.5-1.2
5763.5MarquetteBE0.56360.55805312-618-122-61-24-34-17-09-312922976-12.5-0.6
180183.3Washington St.P120.49230.5577548-810-190-60-21-45-55-16-520017517013.30.6
3439.7Rhode IslandA100.58580.55775511-620-101-21-34-48-26-08-4402948-8.3-0.6
1414.7West VirginiaB120.62960.55755615-226-54-13-15-28-16-012-14324225-10.3-1.7
128132.5ConnecticutAmer0.52040.5573576-1013-160-31-33-64-35-24-719763157-24.5-0.9
4852.9CaliforniaP120.57230.55705813-520-101-51-13-38-16-09-3777454-1.1-0.1
3337.9MarylandB100.58790.55605915-222-81-23-26-38-14-011-1331472215.91.2
3743.2NorthwesternB100.58170.55406015-421-101-43-35-27-06-011-241172412.20.1
ExpectedRPISOSSOS RankCurrentProjected1-2526-5051-100101-200200+Non Conf ForecastsCurrentOver-
OverallRPI RankTeamConfForecastForecastForecastW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LRPISOSRPIRatedt-stat
120120.3IowaB100.52700.55336111-816-151-42-43-43-27-08-51801921200.30.0
6371.7Kansas St.B120.55790.55326213-418-131-61-32-28-16-011-2582765318.70.8
2020.2WisconsinB100.61730.55156314-325-61-34-28-16-05-011-25222038-17.8-2.5
9998.6TempleAmer0.53960.55056410-916-152-31-22-34-58-19-438197226.61.2
233228.0DePaulBE0.46740.5502658-119-220-70-31-51-66-17-62632912217.00.4
277276.4Oregon St.P120.43900.5500663-144-260-50-40-51-72-43-9332277290-13.6-0.8
1715.2CincinnatiAmer0.62810.54986715-227-41-23-16-18-08-011-2192616-0.8-0.1
4348.0ArkansasSEC0.57730.54846813-421-100-42-15-29-25-011-21661408.00.5
6471.8Virginia TechACC0.55760.54686913-419-112-52-24-24-17-011-1753135714.80.7
117116.5Saint Joseph'sA100.52940.5454708-814-160-21-43-55-46-16-696589719.50.7
250249.4PepperdineWCC0.45520.5449714-136-230-40-10-43-93-43-824286263-13.6-0.6
2831.5DaytonA100.59600.54487212-422-70-12-26-27-17-08-35755283.50.4
3036.3VCUA100.58970.54367314-423-80-22-14-310-26-010-34778342.30.2
116114.9TulsaAmer0.53040.5432749-715-150-21-42-43-29-26-6155831086.90.3
3640.6USCP120.58410.54287516-323-82-51-13-110-27-013-0111572911.60.9
9799.0AlabamaSEC0.53980.54197610-617-130-41-34-36-26-07-51521107722.00.8
56.4GonzagaWCC0.64980.54157717-028-13-02-04-010-08-012-04419-2.6-0.9
102101.0New MexicoMWC0.53840.54107810-816-140-21-43-36-47-17-511175112-11.0-0.4
6874.2Texas TechB120.55580.54067913-420-112-42-22-26-38-012-192327659.20.4
2730.7SMUAmer0.59750.53998015-424-71-22-25-37-18-010-3398133-2.3-0.2
6673.6La SalleA100.55680.53848110-518-110-21-24-46-47-17-479376013.60.5
1919.5Saint Mary'sWCC0.61790.53648215-225-41-22-13-111-09-010-12465190.50.1
9394.2DavidsonA100.54290.5360839-716-130-32-32-35-38-17-476108105-10.8-0.4
4246.9HoustonAmer0.57750.53598413-521-91-22-13-27-39-09-36813461-14.1-0.9
1816.1UCLAP120.62610.53598518-128-33-22-05-09-08-013-02119917-0.9-0.2
165163.5Utah St.MWC0.50330.5349867-912-160-10-31-56-64-25-5173115197-33.5-1.1
254252.8MissouriSEC0.45290.5349875-118-220-40-31-72-65-25-7291248275-22.2-1.0
106109.7AuburnSEC0.53320.53348811-617-140-31-33-48-35-110-3481438128.71.1
118116.1ColoradoP120.52940.5332899-816-141-41-22-36-37-09-3901899620.10.8
158154.8George WashingtonA100.50770.5315909-915-160-21-43-55-57-18-514114514014.80.5
ExpectedRPISOSSOS RankCurrentProjected1-2526-5051-100101-200200+Non Conf ForecastsCurrentOver-
OverallRPI RankTeamConfForecastForecastForecastW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LRPISOSRPIRatedt-stat
169170.4RutgersB100.49910.53119110-813-170-31-61-62-29-010-211234115020.40.8
215214.1PacificWCC0.47540.5297927-1110-200-50-10-34-85-35-72361802059.10.4
155152.7Loyola MarymountWCC0.50930.5293938-813-150-40-20-35-38-26-4161177156-3.3-0.1
7175.2UtahP120.55490.52939410-518-101-51-12-26-28-07-313624182-6.8-0.3
5662.7BYUWCC0.56380.52809513-621-101-30-12-211-28-19-410814880-17.3-1.0
119119.3Mississippi St.SEC0.52790.52749612-417-131-21-23-65-27-09-31542801163.30.1
164161.0Santa ClaraWCC0.50430.5273979-914-160-50-11-34-68-25-7247201182-21.0-0.9
129133.2Colorado St.MWC0.52010.5261989-716-130-01-22-57-56-16-5175126162-28.8-1.0
187189.3San DiegoWCC0.48910.5260998-912-170-50-21-32-69-26-5183200191-1.7-0.1
104105.3MassachusettsA100.53570.524210011-718-130-01-22-57-48-110-3842088916.30.6
206206.7Western MichiganMAC0.47990.52371015-1011-180-20-21-44-66-43-8278135228-21.3-0.6
5460.2Boise St.MWC0.56640.523410210-519-90-11-12-29-46-16-411316363-2.8-0.1
9494.6St. BonaventureA100.54230.523110311-619-110-21-32-27-39-18-4126165100-5.4-0.2
225221.7Air ForceMWC0.47070.52271047-911-180-00-31-55-85-35-6244190225-3.3-0.1
204205.7Northern IowaMVC0.48000.52261055-1110-180-20-30-24-75-34-6164542032.70.1
8186.4Eastern MichiganMAC0.54830.52241067-616-110-00-22-26-47-24-5131119117-30.6-1.1
248248.4Oral RobertsSum0.45570.52231073-148-200-20-10-34-113-32-10227142471.40.0
270273.1Saint LouisA100.44100.52231085-128-230-10-40-72-85-35-829524524429.11.6
7880.0San Diego St.MWC0.55180.52221099-718-110-11-12-29-56-17-4100141101-21.0-0.9
184187.5San Jose St.MWC0.49010.52151107-711-160-10-21-35-85-25-417923115136.51.3
7576.9UCFAmer0.55410.520611113-420-100-31-13-25-410-19-311023679-2.1-0.1
115113.6RichmondA100.53070.520511211-618-120-11-42-36-38-16-62142261112.60.1
113111.9San FranciscoWCC0.53180.519911311-718-120-41-11-25-410-29-397210130-18.1-0.7
135137.9ToledoMAC0.51770.51961148-815-150-00-31-36-68-36-612549139-1.1-0.0
179182.7Coastal CarolinaSB0.49280.51911157-913-160-00-22-73-58-33-825597194-11.3-0.4
3236.6NevadaMWC0.58890.518611615-324-70-10-14-213-37-011-231154324.60.4
209206.3Indiana St.MVC0.47960.51841176-1111-181-00-40-34-66-55-61477118818.30.7
282281.3TulaneAmer0.43610.51791184-136-240-40-30-41-85-53-933030626813.30.8
245246.0FordhamA100.45700.51741196-1110-200-10-31-54-84-35-7266233253-7.0-0.3
156153.5Southern IllinoisMVC0.50870.517012010-815-150-20-41-26-58-36-61487912726.51.0
ExpectedRPISOSSOS RankCurrentProjected1-2526-5051-100101-200200+Non Conf ForecastsCurrentOver-
OverallRPI RankTeamConfForecastForecastForecastW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LRPISOSRPIRatedt-stat
175176.2BuffaloMAC0.49620.51661215-1012-170-20-21-43-57-44-7177104178-1.8-0.1
193194.6UNLVMWC0.48650.51611229-914-170-30-21-35-67-27-620920317717.60.6
3136.3Illinois St.MVC0.58910.515112313-423-60-01-12-111-39-17-46469279.30.9
9293.3MarshallCUSA0.54330.514912410-818-120-10-31-35-311-26-611952930.30.0
148148.4William & MaryCAA0.51150.51461256-812-140-30-21-35-37-34-514412311434.41.0
10099.1MemphisAmer0.53950.514612613-520-111-21-32-45-211-010-3105222118-18.9-0.8
224219.5Cleveland St.Horz0.47240.51421275-1310-190-20-11-43-86-53-82013420811.50.4
274274.8Western CarolinaSC0.44000.51421283-136-230-10-20-71-95-43-81593021856.82.8
197195.7EvansvilleMVC0.48560.51381298-913-160-21-41-13-68-47-410180202-6.3-0.2
196195.8PortlandWCC0.48580.51321308-812-160-40-10-24-68-36-5192218200-4.2-0.2
166164.5SienaMAAC0.50220.51291317-1114-170-10-12-55-78-33-821244184-19.5-0.6
139140.6TowsonCAA0.51570.51281329-916-140-10-32-26-47-47-51049412317.60.6
130134.6Fresno St.MWC0.51890.51151339-715-130-11-12-34-57-26-41663091313.60.1
269268.5DetroitHorz0.44390.51131343-147-220-10-11-42-104-61-103006625711.50.4
7476.1NortheasternCAA0.55450.510513512-619-110-12-12-17-68-37-57210692-15.9-0.7
133137.0WyomingMWC0.51830.510313610-616-130-00-31-38-57-28-38319410631.00.9
222217.4DuquesneA100.47360.51001379-913-180-21-31-43-78-27-622524420413.40.5
132135.7George MasonA100.51830.509013811-617-130-11-32-36-48-29-3134282148-12.3-0.5
2629.8UNC WilmingtonCAA0.59820.508413915-224-50-00-24-19-111-09-2269231-1.2-0.2
182184.2MercerSC0.49190.50811406-1113-160-10-21-64-68-24-71694717410.20.4
246247.8James MadisonCAA0.45610.50671415-139-210-10-20-44-95-51-11327215271-23.2-1.0
6773.1College of CharlestonCAA0.55630.505514214-421-90-21-22-27-311-18-4991375518.10.9
3539.8Middle TennesseeCUSA0.58460.504914314-325-50-01-13-19-211-19-328182316.81.6
243241.0BradleyMVC0.45970.50391447-1110-200-10-40-33-77-54-826020620932.01.4
5154.6UT ArlingtonSB0.57030.503714511-520-91-10-11-27-210-28-32357459.60.5
217215.6UMKCWAC0.47450.50261467-1111-170-30-00-23-78-45-92039918926.61.1
126131.6Georgia St.SB0.52100.50161478-716-120-11-11-34-69-25-512310110724.60.8
5359.2AkronMAC0.56680.501514813-322-80-20-02-18-211-29-3441564910.20.5
288284.3Chicago St.WAC0.43400.50101493-155-230-20-20-31-74-92-1226413925133.31.6
7074.8Arkansas St.SB0.55550.500915011-620-100-10-13-26-410-38-437936410.80.5
ExpectedRPISOSSOS RankCurrentProjected1-2526-5051-100101-200200+Non Conf ForecastsCurrentOver-
OverallRPI RankTeamConfForecastForecastForecastW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LRPISOSRPIRatedt-stat
188189.5HofstraCAA0.48870.50081518-1014-160-20-21-45-58-47-5138188193-3.5-0.1
105108.7IonaMAAC0.53390.500515210-819-120-11-12-17-49-47-45482119-10.3-0.4
4549.4VermontAE0.57450.500515314-523-70-10-11-210-212-09-5626862-12.6-1.0
263264.6MilwaukeeHorz0.44570.49971544-139-210-00-10-53-95-73-9239133278-13.4-0.5
101100.4Georgia SouthernSB0.53910.499115510-617-120-10-12-45-410-25-61211278515.40.6
261263.5MaristMAAC0.44670.49821566-139-220-10-20-32-107-53-823815524221.51.0
301298.4DrakeMVC0.42450.49791574-127-210-00-30-23-84-71-9347300327-28.6-1.4
258256.4Appalachian St.SB0.45040.49731584-109-180-10-11-52-65-63-6271290266-9.6-0.3
289284.3South FloridaAmer0.43380.49721596-109-200-30-20-42-76-46-5277334287-2.7-0.1
238235.8East CarolinaAmer0.46310.49701609-1013-180-30-41-52-410-28-520831722411.80.5
273274.3Louisiana MonroeSB0.44020.49671614-128-210-00-21-52-75-64-7276298300-25.7-1.0
251249.9Bowling GreenMAC0.45490.49631626-1011-190-10-10-33-108-45-7274269260-10.1-0.4
223219.3Morehead St.OVC0.47270.49591635-1111-160-10-10-42-68-42-928077246-26.7-0.8
5560.1MonmouthMAAC0.56550.495816414-523-80-10-13-18-413-18-334112591.10.1
7982.2PrincetonIvy0.55030.49571659-617-90-00-21-34-212-16-61029090-7.8-0.4
210209.0WoffordSC0.47820.49571664-1111-170-00-21-45-76-32-8265152220-11.0-0.4
5863.0ValparaisoHorz0.56330.495116714-423-70-21-02-18-313-19-35310566-3.0-0.2
234229.4ManhattanMAAC0.46660.49501687-1112-190-20-11-43-88-55-6171158230-0.6-0.0
170171.4ElonCAA0.49890.49471698-914-150-20-21-45-48-46-5170249179-7.6-0.3
112112.4Louisiana LafayetteSB0.53180.494517010-618-110-10-22-35-312-28-381261145-32.6-1.2
328322.8VMISC0.40410.49391712-124-230-10-10-41-93-71-8328182332-9.2-0.7
228224.6South AlabamaSB0.46920.49331727-912-170-00-21-43-68-45-62513022222.60.1
4750.7Wichita St.MVC0.57290.492317314-425-50-11-21-111-112-09-312424684-33.3-2.9
107110.7CanisiusMAAC0.53260.492317412-720-110-10-11-28-511-37-4981591028.70.4
239236.6QuinnipiacMAAC0.46270.49171757-1112-180-10-21-33-78-53-72722112333.60.1
230227.7Long Beach St.BW0.46800.49041764-1411-190-40-10-31-49-73-111761521611.70.4
283281.7DelawareCAA0.43550.48971775-128-210-10-21-52-85-65-621329725427.71.3
159155.4Wright St.Horz0.50740.489617810-716-130-00-01-35-710-37-4941611532.40.1
160156.0Nebraska OmahaSum0.50720.48931799-914-140-00-20-34-610-26-611613612432.01.1
8790.5OhioMAC0.54510.489118010-420-80-00-11-37-311-27-3117274141-50.5-1.8
ExpectedRPISOSSOS RankCurrentProjected1-2526-5051-100101-200200+Non Conf ForecastsCurrentOver-
OverallRPI RankTeamConfForecastForecastForecastW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LRPISOSRPIRatedt-stat
8991.3LehighPat0.54450.48881819-719-90-10-12-25-412-25-5745195-3.7-0.2
146147.0Green BayHorz0.51230.48821829-715-130-10-11-25-510-44-619620712522.00.8
264265.3South Dakota St.Sum0.44560.48801836-1210-190-00-10-33-106-55-8215170284-18.7-0.7
127131.9Loyola ChicagoMVC0.52060.488018411-618-110-00-31-26-410-28-3118283132-0.1-0.0
134136.4Old DominionCUSA0.51820.487918511-719-110-10-21-26-512-27-5145149142-5.6-0.2
291287.3CornellIvy0.43160.48781863-127-210-00-21-41-85-73-11283197288-0.7-0.0
123125.8North Dakota St.Sum0.52380.487718710-616-110-10-11-15-510-36-51151299926.80.9
6065.4ChattanoogaSC0.56190.487318812-421-70-10-02-38-311-07-35614674-8.6-0.5
260261.5Eastern KentuckyOVC0.44760.48721896-1210-190-10-11-32-77-75-81931282565.50.2
190190.9Utah ValleyWAC0.48830.48711906-912-140-10-11-22-68-55-7167184206-15.1-0.5
295290.5UC Santa BarbaraBW0.42910.48581912-127-200-20-20-11-66-81-102501127020.50.7
242241.6DrexelCAA0.45990.48571926-1110-190-10-20-52-78-45-72213152329.60.4
174175.2Saint Peter'sMAAC0.49700.48541938-815-150-10-11-25-69-54-6222259190-14.8-0.5
195195.9PennIvy0.48580.48511946-813-140-10-11-43-49-47-61501671869.90.3
125128.5UABCUSA0.52230.485019510-719-110-20-21-25-413-26-61811641217.50.3
151149.9FurmanSC0.51040.48501968-816-130-00-11-56-39-45-6168209166-16.1-0.6
189190.9Loyola MDPat0.48830.48471978-813-150-20-01-25-47-75-5877614347.91.6
267266.6North FloridaASun0.44430.48451983-138-190-10-10-31-67-71-1231813825214.60.6
173174.3Stony BrookAE0.49720.48431999-816-130-00-22-14-610-55-82322131677.30.3
203204.3Houston BaptistSlnd0.48080.48432004-911-140-00-20-23-48-61-621110226-21.7-0.6
7676.2Florida Gulf CoastASun0.55390.483820111-520-70-20-11-13-115-28-56362715.20.3
284281.5Miami OHMAC0.43530.48352026-910-190-00-10-43-97-55-6303332282-0.5-0.0
278276.7Youngstown St.Horz0.43880.48342036-129-200-00-11-42-86-74-72412582679.70.4
214213.6RadfordBSth0.47590.48342046-1012-160-20-22-32-39-63-71783619518.60.6
235229.6CharlotteCUSA0.46660.48342057-912-160-10-20-32-610-45-51952022236.60.2
143145.1AlbanyAE0.51310.48282069-917-130-10-21-14-612-38-6132196161-15.9-0.6
136138.6HarvardIvy0.51670.48262077-515-100-01-12-32-410-26-51461681380.60.0
199196.9TroySB0.48470.48182088-914-160-01-12-33-59-66-6235336212-15.1-0.5
167168.1FairfieldMAAC0.50090.48162098-716-130-00-11-34-611-35-4163272171-2.9-0.1
138140.3SamfordSC0.51590.481021011-617-120-20-11-35-412-27-410721712911.30.5
ExpectedRPISOSSOS RankCurrentProjected1-2526-5051-100101-200200+Non Conf ForecastsCurrentOver-
OverallRPI RankTeamConfForecastForecastForecastW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LRPISOSRPIRatedt-stat
205205.6IUPUISum0.48000.48082116-1112-160-00-21-33-68-54-8206232211-5.4-0.2
9091.6BucknellPat0.54360.480621213-622-90-10-11-36-314-18-589120103-11.4-0.6
153151.6Boston UniversityPat0.50970.48052139-817-120-00-02-44-511-34-7224142155-3.4-0.1
137140.0UNC GreensboroSC0.51600.480321411-518-100-10-13-24-410-26-416222712812.00.5
7374.8East Tennessee St.SC0.55470.480021512-422-70-10-21-18-313-08-380212115-40.2-2.2
191193.2Holy CrossPat0.48700.47962169-1015-160-10-20-43-511-46-71561531876.20.2
178181.2Northern IllinoisMAC0.49340.47922178-615-130-10-11-25-59-55-5248329201-19.8-0.6
221216.3Western KentuckyCUSA0.47390.47892189-1014-170-10-21-23-710-56-72343122142.30.1
271272.6McNeese St.Slnd0.44100.47892193-108-180-10-10-21-67-81-72303824824.60.8
285282.9Austin PeayOVC0.43460.47852204-138-200-00-20-22-76-92-1028212226220.90.9
318310.9MaineAE0.41550.47832214-157-230-10-20-32-95-93-1130427929812.90.8
152150.7Northern KentuckyHorz0.51030.478122210-717-120-10-11-23-413-47-4130260172-21.3-0.7
150149.3New HampshireAE0.51100.47802238-715-120-10-11-14-410-46-5135230163-13.7-0.5
171172.7Missouri St.MVC0.49820.478022411-717-130-00-30-25-412-38-41993261693.70.1
200196.8Kent St.MAC0.48450.47772258-816-140-00-11-35-79-37-5226337250-53.2-1.7
157155.0South DakotaSum0.50800.477422611-817-120-10-10-26-510-47-61532251469.00.3
177180.0Central MichiganMAC0.49420.47722279-616-130-00-11-46-69-38-313331614931.01.0
201200.9LibertyBSth0.48270.47722287-914-140-00-20-41-512-32-828688215-14.1-0.5
108111.3YaleIvy0.53260.47702298-617-90-10-11-34-211-27-51202041101.30.0
8487.0UNC AshevilleBSth0.54690.477023011-620-90-10-11-26-214-26-56564861.00.0
141142.4UC IrvineBW0.51470.47682319-918-120-20-20-32-216-45-9142431348.40.3
290285.9The CitadelSC0.43290.47682326-119-190-00-20-51-97-44-624928924045.92.2
122125.0Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.52460.47672338-716-100-10-11-23-312-36-6160239158-33.0-1.1
183185.6Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.49120.47672347-1215-160-20-20-31-314-52-112041717312.60.5
276275.7Central ArkansasSlnd0.43920.47662354-1410-210-20-10-32-58-111-123098426510.70.4
240237.1NavyPat0.46230.47632367-1013-160-00-00-43-79-54-72571792343.10.1
311307.0DartmouthIvy0.41810.47632373-116-210-00-10-32-74-93-10297270307-0.0-0.0
8386.0BelmontOVC0.54780.476123811-419-70-10-20-15-214-16-49313187-1.0-0.0
300296.5AmericanPat0.42560.47572394-139-200-10-10-41-78-83-8296198310-13.5-0.6
109111.2OaklandHorz0.53250.475724012-521-80-01-22-26-213-38-3137266137-25.8-1.1
ExpectedRPISOSSOS RankCurrentProjected1-2526-5051-100101-200200+Non Conf ForecastsCurrentOver-
OverallRPI RankTeamConfForecastForecastForecastW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LRPISOSRPIRatedt-stat
226223.1ArmyPat0.47040.47502417-1013-160-10-10-43-510-55-6185178241-17.9-0.6
114111.8Tennessee St.OVC0.53160.473624210-618-90-11-01-25-211-37-4781711092.80.1
303299.2NiagaraMAAC0.42380.47192435-149-220-00-11-34-94-103-8323339324-24.8-1.2
309304.8Florida AtlanticCUSA0.41940.47152443-117-200-00-21-31-65-92-7302240335-30.2-1.4
333325.3Idaho St.BSky0.39970.47072451-145-230-10-10-20-75-121-10311109336-10.7-0.6
281279.0UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.43700.47022466-129-190-00-10-31-88-75-9270299291-12.0-0.5
335326.4FIUCUSA0.39960.46982472-146-230-10-20-31-75-102-9334265347-20.6-1.6
247248.1UMass LowellAE0.45600.46982488-1112-180-00-20-23-78-75-9281307280-31.9-1.3
306304.0North TexasCUSA0.42000.46962494-119-190-00-20-21-98-64-630629529212.00.5
219216.5Illinois ChicagoHorz0.47410.46942508-814-150-00-10-33-811-35-6273325237-20.5-0.8
9697.9WinthropBSth0.54020.468525111-420-70-10-12-13-215-26-34272104-6.1-0.3
314307.9ColgatePat0.41740.46842523-157-230-10-00-41-75-111-11339287319-11.1-0.6
163161.1Grand CanyonWAC0.50480.468425311-718-110-30-01-23-214-39-6198281180-18.9-0.7
111112.0Fort WayneSum0.53220.468325411-519-80-11-21-15-312-28-382262122-10.0-0.4
208206.9Little RockSB0.47960.46822559-715-140-10-11-34-410-67-4189328219-12.1-0.4
161158.9Jacksonville St.OVC0.50570.467825610-816-130-00-21-32-412-46-714025313523.90.9
279276.4SeattleWAC0.43860.46772576-910-160-10-10-31-88-45-7275308299-22.6-0.8
322313.6LafayettePat0.41360.46752585-117-210-10-00-42-65-103-728526430112.60.9
255254.1Nicholls St.Slnd0.45180.46752595-910-170-10-10-22-58-93-61094816094.12.9
302297.0Incarnate WordSlnd0.42390.46692603-108-170-00-00-11-86-81-629396305-8.0-0.3
304299.2Tennessee TechOVC0.42370.46582615-139-200-00-10-42-87-82-11335305334-34.8-1.6
332326.3UTEPCUSA0.39980.46562623-137-220-00-20-41-76-91-10331186341-14.7-1.1
308304.6Western IllinoisSum0.41950.46552634-117-180-10-10-12-74-91-8345340321-16.4-0.8
232227.0ColumbiaIvy0.46770.46542646-712-140-00-10-42-69-45-7245303245-18.0-0.6
216214.9Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.47510.46512655-913-140-10-10-22-511-62-7269121276-61.1-1.8
218215.8LipscombASun0.47450.46432667-1013-150-10-00-41-313-65-9228235255-39.2-1.4
202203.1Gardner WebbBSth0.48150.46312677-914-140-00-21-42-311-44-6182181210-6.9-0.3
145146.5RiceCUSA0.51260.463026810-619-100-00-20-24-415-28-3122288168-21.5-0.9
287283.2BryantNEC0.43430.46232694-1411-190-20-10-12-49-122-1025453293-9.8-0.4
147147.6Weber St.BSky0.51190.46212707-617-90-00-00-24-412-43-6233195165-17.4-0.6
ExpectedRPISOSSOS RankCurrentProjected1-2526-5051-100101-200200+Non Conf ForecastsCurrentOver-
OverallRPI RankTeamConfForecastForecastForecastW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LRPISOSRPIRatedt-stat
176177.5DenverSum0.49570.461627111-717-120-00-00-25-711-48-5172311185-7.5-0.3
340336.4Southern MissCUSA0.38600.46152723-125-230-10-10-20-85-101-9348310338-1.6-0.2
324312.4UC RiversideBW0.41220.46132732-117-190-10-00-12-75-101-9308983120.40.0
168169.9UMBCAE0.49960.460927410-616-110-00-10-23-513-37-4158322183-13.1-0.5
307304.3Charleston SouthernBSth0.41960.46082752-127-190-10-10-41-47-91-7310224309-4.7-0.2
131135.8Louisiana TechCUSA0.51850.460527610-620-90-10-21-34-216-26-5186228196-60.2-2.4
227224.5NJITASun0.46940.46042777-1013-150-10-10-21-411-76-8194250231-6.5-0.2
211210.2Ball St.MAC0.47730.459627810-616-140-00-11-34-611-48-4231349243-32.8-1.1
326317.3SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.40960.45902794-137-210-00-10-32-65-114-8243252328-10.7-0.7
265265.8High PointBSth0.44540.45892805-1011-160-00-10-42-48-73-6253221269-3.2-0.1
181183.8RiderMAAC0.49200.458528111-717-140-00-01-33-612-57-4174347192-8.2-0.3
266265.8BrownIvy0.44510.45782828-812-160-10-10-32-610-57-725231823629.81.1
162159.8Sam Houston St.Slnd0.50480.45752839-617-100-10-10-12-314-55-48511813326.80.8
185188.2Tennessee MartinOVC0.48990.457528410-816-130-10-10-22-414-48-511421415236.21.3
207207.1New OrleansSlnd0.47960.45732856-713-130-00-20-22-411-52-621811715948.11.5
6165.6New Mexico St.WAC0.56140.457128615-223-40-00-01-18-314-111-27130467-1.4-0.1
327321.1LongwoodBSth0.40520.45672874-117-200-10-00-30-56-101-834327530417.11.1
192193.9Murray St.OVC0.48680.45592888-916-120-01-11-13-410-64-8279255199-5.1-0.2
244241.9Texas St.SB0.45920.45562898-713-150-01-11-22-59-75-5290350264-22.1-0.7
345342.6PresbyterianBSth0.37180.45522902-134-230-00-10-41-63-122-73172713393.60.7
110110.9Texas SouthernSWAC0.53240.45482919-921-100-40-11-11-319-24-95977040.92.3
172175.0MontanaBSky0.49720.453529210-919-120-10-10-23-616-35-82292231750.00.0
323313.7HartfordAE0.41280.45342936-139-220-00-10-22-97-105-10319345314-0.3-0.0
305302.3South Carolina St.MEAC0.42050.45292942-127-180-10-30-31-26-81-10190525844.31.7
280278.3BinghamtonAE0.43750.45282956-1011-170-00-20-22-89-66-6246346296-17.7-0.7
253251.8Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.45360.45222966-912-150-10-10-22-611-53-828716023813.80.5
272273.9Robert MorrisNEC0.44050.45182976-1312-190-10-00-32-410-114-921011626112.90.5
293289.3Montana St.BSky0.43030.45152985-1211-180-00-00-12-109-73-8312237333-43.7-1.8
256254.5Northern ColoradoBSky0.45170.45122995-1011-160-20-00-11-710-62-7219672495.50.2
237231.3USC UpstateASun0.46610.45073008-813-140-00-00-41-312-66-720229620724.30.9
ExpectedRPISOSSOS RankCurrentProjected1-2526-5051-100101-200200+Non Conf ForecastsCurrentOver-
OverallRPI RankTeamConfForecastForecastForecastW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LRPISOSRPIRatedt-stat
320309.7Cal PolyBW0.41440.45053013-128-200-00-10-22-77-103-92621913063.70.2
241239.7Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.46050.44893026-1013-150-10-10-21-512-71-92941072390.70.0
297292.9Kennesaw St.ASun0.42790.44813035-1210-180-00-10-41-58-94-10299320308-15.1-0.6
186188.9Eastern WashingtonBSky0.48970.44733049-717-120-10-10-12-614-46-512715015434.91.1
330324.5Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.40100.44633052-167-240-20-30-20-47-130-1330132329-4.5-0.3
213211.7Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.47650.44343066-714-120-10-10-11-313-74-4143243217-5.3-0.1
262264.0CampbellBSth0.44630.44243077-812-150-00-10-31-411-74-5256324273-9.0-0.4
292288.2UTSACUSA0.43060.44213087-911-180-00-10-23-68-93-8321323297-8.8-0.3
339335.3Southern UtahBSky0.38710.44103092-146-230-00-00-10-85-140-11349268337-1.7-0.2
316308.3Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.41630.44043105-1310-190-00-10-21-79-93-10338338311-2.7-0.1
294290.2Abilene ChristianSlnd0.42920.43923114-99-160-00-00-12-67-92-5289333331-40.8-1.5
337328.8Sacramento St.BSky0.39670.43893123-117-200-00-00-10-87-101-83362383262.80.2
317308.8HawaiiBW0.41570.43843136-912-160-10-10-21-312-85-7307257313-4.2-0.2
336327.4StetsonASun0.39770.43793144-128-200-00-00-30-47-135-93153423234.40.3
212212.4UC DavisBW0.47650.43793159-816-130-00-00-12-513-66-7191263213-0.6-0.0
344339.8Northern ArizonaBSky0.37880.43693163-146-240-00-00-11-106-132-10324285342-2.2-0.3
343339.4St. Francis NYNEC0.37910.43683173-156-240-10-00-20-56-161-11340256340-0.6-0.1
310303.1Northwestern St.Slnd0.41930.43563183-98-170-00-00-11-68-102-5261319325-21.9-0.8
299294.9Prairie View A&MSWAC0.42620.43463193-1411-190-20-10-31-49-101-11259562868.90.4
249248.7WagnerNEC0.45540.43393206-913-140-00-00-21-412-73-6205187279-30.3-1.1
275275.2IdahoBSky0.43940.43313215-912-150-00-00-11-810-63-62682842723.20.1
236229.5North DakotaBSky0.46620.43173226-714-110-00-00-13-610-52-5217173235-5.5-0.2
286282.0St. Francis PANEC0.43450.43153235-1112-160-00-00-20-411-92-8305254283-1.0-0.0
338329.4Coppin St.MEAC0.39540.43133244-147-220-00-20-40-57-110-133258931514.41.1
259259.0Eastern IllinoisOVC0.44940.43063257-913-140-00-00-12-511-86-5216344281-22.0-0.8
220217.1Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.47390.42973269-816-130-00-00-11-515-75-6220331259-41.9-1.3
331324.6HowardMEAC0.40060.42863272-148-210-00-20-20-68-101-12313102330-5.4-0.3
312306.2Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.41800.42863282-1410-190-00-10-30-610-81-1229210029412.20.6
298294.0Sacred HeartNEC0.42770.42593298-1113-180-10-00-01-512-115-82673012895.00.3
252251.1LamarSlnd0.45360.42523307-713-140-00-00-12-511-84-5258348274-22.9-0.7
ExpectedRPISOSSOS RankCurrentProjected1-2526-5051-100101-200200+Non Conf ForecastsCurrentOver-
OverallRPI RankTeamConfForecastForecastForecastW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LRPISOSRPIRatedt-stat
231227.3Portland St.BSky0.46780.42353317-614-120-00-00-03-511-64-41512932270.30.0
321310.4Cal St. FullertonBW0.41390.42303326-911-160-00-00-02-710-84-73223303028.40.4
319310.0Norfolk St.MEAC0.41460.42123333-1310-170-20-00-20-410-91-113201323037.00.3
342338.2Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.38010.41983343-147-230-00-00-20-87-120-12342176343-4.8-0.5
229226.7LIU BrooklynNEC0.46870.419633511-718-120-10-01-02-315-86-6207314229-2.3-0.1
313306.2Alcorn St.SWAC0.41770.41933363-1110-160-00-00-20-79-70-831450317-10.8-0.5
329322.3Delaware St.MEAC0.40390.41853373-149-200-00-10-12-47-131-123161933184.30.3
347346.8Central ConnecticutNEC0.35570.41813382-155-240-00-00-10-45-182-9341335348-1.2-0.4
334325.2Savannah St.MEAC0.39970.41743394-129-180-10-10-30-39-101-102981513223.20.2
315307.8HamptonMEAC0.41650.41343404-1110-160-00-00-21-410-91-10329169320-12.2-0.5
341337.5Alabama St.SWAC0.38210.41023413-138-210-00-10-20-58-131-10326216344-6.5-0.7
350348.7North Carolina A&TMEAC0.34280.41023420-174-250-10-00-10-64-170-13346267350-1.3-0.6
296292.1Jackson St.SWAC0.42860.40643435-1113-150-10-00-20-312-82-8284205295-2.9-0.1
257255.9JacksonvilleASun0.45120.40623449-714-130-00-00-21-213-98-5237351277-21.1-0.8
268267.5SouthernSWAC0.44430.40503456-1014-140-10-00-20-514-62-8288219285-17.5-0.7
325316.1Morgan St.MEAC0.40960.39423466-1013-150-00-10-10-412-102-103372733160.10.0
349348.3Florida A&MMEAC0.34600.39323472-145-220-10-00-10-35-170-11350286349-0.7-0.3
348346.6Bethune CookmanMEAC0.35520.39143482-147-210-00-00-20-47-151-113442923460.60.2
346343.3Grambling St.SWAC0.36810.39073494-128-200-10-00-10-38-142-8333321345-1.7-0.3
351350.4Alabama A&MSWAC0.32580.38833501-153-260-00-00-10-53-190-11351343351-0.6-0.5
194196.2North Carolina CentralMEAC0.48580.38453519-620-70-00-00-11-218-46-5139294198-1.8-0.1

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data and Jeff Sagarin for the use of "PREDICTOR" to generate probabilities.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: rpiforecast@gmail.com