Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Bracket Busters - Blog

Below are projections for the end-of-season RPIs for all D1 basketball teams.

How does the RPI Forecast work?

Some numbers (e.g., 1-50 W-L, 51-100 W-L, etc.) are rounded and may not sum up to totals.

EXPECTED RPI RANK is the best estimate for an individual team of its end-of-season RPI Rank. Because they are expectations, they do not have to be 1, 2, 3, etc.
OVERALL is the one most likely overall outcome for all Division 1 teams if I am forced to rank teams 1, 2, 3, etc. It corresponds to the RPI Forecast number column and may not be the same as ranking the Expected RPI Rank column.

New! For Simulations INCLUDING CONFERENCE TOURNAMENTS, click here (updated at least weekly)

Through games of Feb 7, 2010.


ExpectedRPISOSSOS RankCurrentProjected1-2526-5051-100101-200200+Non Conf ForecastsCurrentOver-
OverallRPI RankTeamConfForecastForecastForecastW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LRPISOSRPIRatedt-stat
88.9GeorgetownBE0.63840.6088117-521-85-42-25-25-04-010-151580.90.2
43.9West VirginiaBE0.66010.6030219-325-54-34-18-17-02-011-12254-0.1-0.1
3636.4LouisvilleBE0.59800.6022315-819-121-61-26-310-12-09-4432042-5.6-0.4
5454.2ConnecticutBE0.58010.6010414-918-132-61-26-36-22-010-3161257-2.8-0.2
77.0Kansas St.B120.64470.6010518-423-64-23-23-110-03-012-13197-0.0-0.0
33.7DukeACC0.66020.5960619-426-52-36-18-16-13-013-292730.70.4
1923.3Texas A&MB120.61330.5957716-619-102-63-24-25-05-010-33348194.30.4
6161.1CincinnatiBE0.57310.5880814-917-132-52-44-45-14-09-33143565.10.4
23.0SyracuseBE0.66450.5875923-128-34-14-110-06-04-013-013921.00.6
11.8KansasB120.67270.58681022-128-35-24-16-011-03-014-164010.80.6
2224.1CaliforniaP100.61100.58581115-821-90-30-16-312-22-08-411126-1.9-0.2
2626.0PittsburghBE0.60910.58491217-622-92-42-16-38-13-111-22555224.00.4
2425.2Georgia TechACC0.61040.58401316-620-92-23-35-34-15-011-227117250.20.0
8483.6North CarolinaACC0.55320.58401413-1016-151-72-34-34-15-011-45687785.60.4
5554.4Texas TechB120.57980.58401515-718-121-72-33-26-16-012-215943222.41.5
97101.8GeorgiaSEC0.53970.58381610-1113-163-41-42-62-35-08-588758912.80.6
66.2VillanovaBE0.64870.58181720-225-53-44-17-16-04-011-11714951.20.4
7679.8OklahomaB120.55610.58151813-915-152-52-43-24-24-19-595141718.80.6
1014.8TennesseeSEC0.62550.58121918-423-72-32-16-27-15-012-2134117-2.2-0.3
3335.5MarylandACC0.59860.57892015-620-91-42-25-35-06-09-49814344-8.5-0.7
133136.4ColoradoB120.51840.5782219-1211-171-61-41-44-35-17-5148187149-12.6-0.6
7274.3South CarolinaSEC0.56100.57692213-916-142-51-33-46-25-09-58790704.30.3
9498.2ProvidenceBE0.54140.57692312-1114-161-61-32-74-15-08-4101167104-5.8-0.4
2023.2BaylorB120.61300.57682416-521-82-43-17-14-25-012-12115128-4.8-0.4
1821.8VanderbiltSEC0.61470.57632516-521-82-23-16-36-25-010-34480183.80.4
4847.7Oklahoma St.B120.58660.57592616-719-112-51-22-39-15-012-229146398.70.7
3737.6ClemsonACC0.59640.57592716-720-102-42-25-35-16-012-24114240-2.4-0.2
2325.2Wake ForestACC0.61040.57352816-520-81-34-25-34-16-010-237123169.20.8
96101.2St. John'sBE0.54000.57192912-1015-151-62-33-44-25-010-2391159110.20.5
8081.7ArizonaP100.55450.57153012-1116-141-31-34-48-33-16-69786714.71.1
ExpectedRPISOSSOS RankCurrentProjected1-2526-5051-100101-200200+Non Conf ForecastsCurrentOver-
OverallRPI RankTeamConfForecastForecastForecastW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LRPISOSRPIRatedt-stat
7072.6Seton HallBE0.56280.57043112-917-121-62-23-45-17-09-260194648.60.6
912.3WisconsinB100.62920.56883218-524-63-22-26-15-17-010-2224493.30.6
104106.8Boston CollegeACC0.53590.56883312-1115-150-51-44-44-35-09-51532051033.80.2
1315.2TexasB120.62430.56753419-424-73-34-26-27-06-014-11916821-5.8-0.8
56.1KentuckySEC0.64930.56713522-127-42-13-08-211-04-015-088860.10.0
2726.6XavierA100.60820.56353616-721-91-43-33-18-06-08-6511427-0.4-0.0
181180.2DePaulBE0.49340.5634378-1510-201-61-31-73-24-27-514017115228.21.5
123126.3ArkansasSEC0.52390.56323812-1115-160-41-33-45-35-17-81896611313.30.7
195199.8IowaB100.48200.5631398-1610-210-60-40-73-46-06-7191921918.80.6
108110.1Iowa St.B120.53350.56294013-1016-150-91-31-37-17-011-4106218114-3.9-0.2
2832.1DaytonA100.60220.56284116-622-81-53-21-012-24-011-3182133-0.9-0.1
4039.0MissouriB120.59510.56274217-622-93-52-23-18-26-012-35719847-8.0-0.6
5150.5FloridaSEC0.58350.56154317-621-102-62-24-17-06-112-372154482.50.2
4141.5Florida St.ACC0.59260.55974417-621-92-22-35-36-16-012-24221143-1.5-0.1
6664.9South FloridaBE0.56950.55964515-819-112-31-25-56-15-010-2581975014.91.2
5655.4MarquetteBE0.57930.55924615-820-102-52-15-25-26-09-39320261-5.6-0.4
7476.5IllinoisB100.55910.55894716-818-132-42-32-24-38-08-5125108733.50.3
209206.5WyomingMWC0.47830.5585487-149-190-61-31-13-64-45-7185712015.50.4
1214.9PurdueB100.62450.55784919-325-54-22-24-28-07-012-0772113.90.6
5961.2MinnesotaB100.57330.55595014-819-112-41-22-37-17-19-3486862-0.8-0.1
166161.8RutgersBE0.50380.55585111-1213-170-60-33-65-35-09-310522912239.82.0
149146.7UCLAP100.51260.55555211-1213-171-31-13-84-54-15-71884713610.70.6
2123.6Michigan St.B100.61200.55545319-524-72-32-16-26-18-010-346118149.61.0
141143.6MichiganB100.51430.55375410-1213-160-51-22-54-36-16-5155130145-1.4-0.1
5050.4WashingtonP100.58390.55315516-721-91-21-15-48-35-010-2203455-4.6-0.4
6464.6NevadaWAC0.57040.55275612-918-110-20-34-37-36-07-6643374-9.4-0.6
9192.0VirginiaACC0.54660.55265714-717-121-32-33-35-35-19-416027794-2.0-0.1
7375.1Notre DameBE0.56030.55265817-720-111-31-25-46-26-111-2842476015.11.1
102106.5AlabamaSEC0.53600.55255913-1016-141-51-32-34-29-010-4901131051.50.1
2524.9TempleA100.61000.55236019-524-73-33-22-110-27-012-32837231.90.2
ExpectedRPISOSSOS RankCurrentProjected1-2526-5051-100101-200200+Non Conf ForecastsCurrentOver-
OverallRPI RankTeamConfForecastForecastForecastW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LRPISOSRPIRatedt-stat
4342.6MississippiSEC0.59130.55156117-622-81-41-14-28-18-012-22485366.60.6
1114.3New MexicoMWC0.62470.54976221-326-53-13-24-18-18-014-11054104.30.9
4949.2NortheasternCAA0.58520.54876316-820-100-14-23-24-49-06-659354-4.8-0.5
124127.1NebraskaB120.52360.54856413-1016-150-71-33-23-48-012-3822801261.10.1
177177.5Saint Joseph'sA100.49530.5479659-1411-190-51-41-24-74-16-8138381716.50.3
7881.0Southern CaliforniaP100.55540.54766614-918-122-23-13-25-55-18-47559792.00.1
3838.1RichmondA100.59590.54756718-622-91-24-32-38-17-011-43658317.10.7
115115.5BradleyMVC0.53040.54726812-1115-140-20-24-45-65-06-51611021114.50.2
169163.8AuburnSEC0.50290.54726910-1213-170-30-32-64-47-18-61561661549.80.5
192194.2MassachusettsA100.48550.5470707-159-200-40-41-34-84-15-8166601895.20.3
4544.0San Diego St.MWC0.58970.54637114-719-91-31-21-19-27-19-335104413.00.3
8282.7New Mexico St.WAC0.55370.54577213-816-130-21-32-35-48-16-711053775.70.4
214209.9Penn St.B100.47620.5451738-1510-200-60-31-63-35-38-4165290227-17.1-1.0
176174.6Texas ChristianMWC0.49690.5449749-1311-180-40-40-42-58-06-7179155176-1.4-0.1
210206.6IndianaB100.47810.5437759-1310-201-61-31-52-56-16-6241240221-14.4-0.9
3938.1Ohio St.B100.59570.54357618-623-83-42-13-25-110-010-355148380.10.0
110110.7North Carolina St.ACC0.53340.54297714-1017-141-22-43-74-17-012-31032761091.70.1
9291.9Indiana St.MVC0.54630.54287813-1016-130-20-22-311-53-27-4661208110.90.7
1720.7Rhode IslandA100.61530.54227919-324-51-23-24-012-15-012-1430128.71.1
1517.9ButlerHorz0.61890.54178020-425-51-12-23-113-06-08-4325152.90.5
3435.4Old DominionCAA0.59830.54108118-723-81-12-44-25-112-08-5307350.40.0
6765.5MemphisCUSA0.56900.53998216-722-90-31-24-17-210-110-51087480-14.5-1.3
122123.3CreightonMVC0.52550.53988312-1215-150-31-22-46-56-06-6197159127-3.7-0.2
224220.8Louisiana St.SEC0.46970.5389849-1411-190-30-41-73-66-09-51632072128.80.5
168162.8UtahMWC0.50340.53868510-1213-171-42-31-44-46-37-7204179178-15.2-0.8
3033.6Utah St.WAC0.60000.53828617-623-71-01-26-37-28-010-4526751-17.4-1.7
120123.2DuquesneA100.52580.53828711-1114-150-40-50-27-47-08-5791059528.21.3
145144.7Cleveland St.Horz0.51360.53828810-1214-150-50-21-35-66-03-82111612816.70.8
231226.0DelawareCAA0.46620.5377896-178-210-20-60-43-54-54-81624221511.00.7
136138.5La SalleA100.51720.53779011-1214-160-50-40-36-38-18-610910312315.50.8
ExpectedRPISOSSOS RankCurrentProjected1-2526-5051-100101-200200+Non Conf ForecastsCurrentOver-
OverallRPI RankTeamConfForecastForecastForecastW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LRPISOSRPIRatedt-stat
175173.0StanfordP100.49750.53759110-1313-170-20-33-74-46-16-618615815518.00.8
154152.1OregonP100.50940.53749212-1015-150-11-34-65-45-18-41191381466.10.3
6971.5Arizona St.P100.56350.53699316-821-100-41-23-39-28-010-37012476-4.5-0.4
2932.4Nevada Las VegasMWC0.60160.53689418-423-63-22-14-16-29-011-249153302.40.3
300296.2FordhamA100.41800.5361952-192-260-50-40-21-91-62-102941912951.20.1
4747.1CharlotteA100.58680.53569618-522-81-53-31-08-19-010-469165461.10.1
236235.8Air ForceMWC0.45960.5340977-138-190-40-30-32-76-16-5201236241-5.2-0.4
112113.5Colorado St.MWC0.53200.53399813-915-140-40-31-26-58-08-51122019815.50.8
235234.4HawaiiWAC0.46070.5338998-1410-190-30-41-52-67-27-6202126238-3.6-0.2
5756.7William & MaryCAA0.57780.532810015-719-101-03-32-35-19-28-31222524.70.4
3134.4UABCUSA0.59940.532710119-424-61-01-15-48-19-012-22398295.40.5
6564.8Mississippi St.SEC0.56980.531810216-721-101-22-23-28-47-012-36821469-4.2-0.3
244243.1East CarolinaCUSA0.45470.53141034-166-210-30-40-51-65-33-81773222419.11.3
5857.5Kent St.MAC0.57670.529810416-721-90-11-22-211-47-19-5502865-7.5-0.7
121124.0St. LouisA100.52580.529110513-816-131-22-31-37-46-18-517121711014.00.6
132135.6Miami OHMAC0.51870.529110610-1314-160-30-22-35-57-24-10226501296.60.3
1415.9Brigham YoungMWC0.62210.528110721-327-41-23-26-09-09-014-12618320-4.1-0.7
5353.5Texas El PasoCUSA0.58090.527510817-522-70-12-25-36-29-09-412416359-5.5-0.5
1619.0Northern IowaMVC0.61780.527310921-226-30-02-15-112-16-010-154212136.00.8
6363.1TulsaCUSA0.57150.525711017-521-90-11-23-47-110-010-492162630.10.0
179179.5DrakeMVC0.49400.525611111-1413-180-21-22-54-76-35-8248257182-2.5-0.1
9090.7Miami FLACC0.54740.525411215-718-111-22-34-42-210-013-061343828.70.5
220217.4NC WilmingtonCAA0.47160.52451137-169-200-10-51-52-76-34-81961122143.40.2
4443.2Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.59090.524311417-522-61-03-23-24-211-09-1146253-9.8-1.0
144144.5HoustonCUSA0.51370.522811510-1115-140-01-23-65-46-27-6170133158-13.5-0.6
226222.5San FranciscoWCC0.46860.52111167-159-180-11-30-52-66-43-1026210020517.51.1
3535.5GonzagaWCC0.59820.520311718-424-51-22-16-04-012-112-340452411.51.3
8182.0MarshallCUSA0.55450.520211814-718-100-20-31-37-210-19-34710686-4.0-0.3
150147.7OhioMAC0.51210.519911911-1115-150-10-11-47-77-28-69963161-13.3-0.6
138139.7Long Beach St.BW0.51660.51971209-1213-150-41-10-15-37-64-8764143-3.3-0.1
ExpectedRPISOSSOS RankCurrentProjected1-2526-5051-100101-200200+Non Conf ForecastsCurrentOver-
OverallRPI RankTeamConfForecastForecastForecastW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LRPISOSRPIRatedt-stat
8685.5Missouri St.MVC0.55140.519612116-819-110-20-24-28-58-011-153251850.50.0
140141.9San Jose St.WAC0.51530.519612211-1114-150-00-32-43-48-47-612821011922.90.9
101105.7DrexelCAA0.53650.518112314-1117-140-32-31-24-410-25-815797969.70.6
193197.3Southern MethodistCUSA0.48370.51781249-1112-160-10-42-62-38-25-7264228199-1.7-0.1
165160.9Fresno St.WAC0.50420.517412511-1215-160-10-32-44-48-38-7193219177-16.1-0.8
109111.0Washington St.P100.53350.516812614-817-120-20-33-35-49-09-26727510110.00.5
129133.6Southern IllinoisMVC0.51990.516612712-1015-130-20-23-35-58-08-2116312134-0.4-0.0
4646.3Wichita St.MVC0.58770.516512819-523-71-21-14-19-38-010-273274379.30.9
8584.3PortlandWCC0.55220.516412913-818-90-11-41-25-211-18-59473831.30.1
8788.9NorthwesternB100.54890.516313016-721-101-40-23-26-111-112-1632886622.91.5
223220.8Santa ClaraWCC0.46980.51631318-1610-190-00-60-43-47-56-919010921010.80.9
229225.4San DiegoWCC0.46680.51621328-1610-190-10-41-52-46-56-9199111230-4.6-0.4
200202.8Oregon St.P100.48040.516013310-1212-180-10-22-66-63-36-62322991966.80.4
153149.2IdahoWAC0.51100.51561349-1114-140-00-22-64-47-37-5113233173-23.8-1.0
184184.1St. BonaventureA100.49130.51511358-1212-160-31-30-44-77-06-6145157186-1.9-0.1
3234.4SienaMAAC0.59930.514513620-424-60-31-13-111-19-07-59186340.40.1
111111.9Southern MississippiCUSA0.53290.514113710-815-110-10-31-44-110-26-41152231065.90.3
6262.2Virginia TechACC0.57200.514013818-422-81-32-25-35-19-013-185344584.20.3
277276.1EvansvilleMVC0.43180.51291395-176-220-20-20-51-125-16-4239334292-15.9-1.2
4242.1St. Mary'sWCC0.59180.512914020-324-40-12-23-14-013-012-2346545-2.9-0.4
130134.2BuffaloMAC0.51950.512314111-914-130-10-11-26-87-26-5961161322.20.1
117121.6Western MichiganMAC0.52710.510614212-1016-130-11-12-34-68-37-671291174.60.2
258263.1NC GreensboroSC0.44080.51001435-187-220-20-30-51-76-51-102431724815.11.1
160158.8DavidsonSC0.50570.509914410-1114-140-20-21-43-410-23-722435166-7.2-0.3
7980.8Weber St.BSky0.55510.508114513-817-90-20-21-15-310-14-61171884-3.2-0.2
7779.9IonaMAAC0.55590.507814618-722-90-10-42-210-210-19-48112987-7.1-0.6
170167.6ValparaisoHorz0.50100.50761479-1312-160-30-10-36-66-32-82351801643.60.2
191192.9Central FloridaCUSA0.48610.507614810-1113-160-00-30-84-48-17-616718217022.91.2
118120.9Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.52700.507014914-917-121-20-12-25-78-07-4111136121-0.1-0.0
178177.3HofstraCAA0.49510.506715011-1314-160-10-41-53-511-17-5133128179-1.7-0.1
ExpectedRPISOSSOS RankCurrentProjected1-2526-5051-100101-200200+Non Conf ForecastsCurrentOver-
OverallRPI RankTeamConfForecastForecastForecastW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LRPISOSRPIRatedt-stat
134136.9George WashingtonA100.51780.506615112-1016-130-20-41-26-48-110-31233091351.90.1
125129.7Austin PeayOVC0.52210.505315212-1116-130-20-11-45-510-25-61222411613.70.7
256257.4Youngstown St.Horz0.44460.50511536-157-200-30-10-33-115-24-51641742507.40.5
264266.4Arkansas Little RockSB0.43800.50491545-168-190-00-10-54-83-62-7209112624.40.2
252255.7TulaneCUSA0.44600.50481557-159-200-10-30-62-66-55-82492202532.70.2
128132.8George MasonCAA0.52030.504615615-917-130-21-41-24-311-26-62081601302.80.1
8382.9Wright St.Horz0.55360.504315715-920-100-20-21-210-58-08-47715297-14.1-1.1
106108.0Illinois St.MVC0.53540.503015816-819-110-21-12-38-59-010-2141332124-16.0-0.8
162159.5RiderMAAC0.50550.502915913-1215-160-10-21-45-89-17-61291781518.50.5
135138.0East Tennessee St.ASun0.51740.499916012-1216-140-10-11-25-510-43-71142147-9.0-0.5
333330.1MaristMAAC0.38380.49951611-231-280-00-20-30-151-80-11341278335-4.9-0.9
301296.7Georgia SouthernSC0.41680.49921624-196-230-00-11-53-102-81-103151502897.70.5
7172.6OaklandSum0.56220.498816316-820-90-40-01-15-215-14-710410684.60.5
324323.0ToledoMAC0.39240.49861642-213-270-10-10-50-133-72-122991453167.00.9
6061.3Louisiana TechWAC0.57310.498616519-423-80-11-13-38-211-012-36528672-10.7-1.0
298293.2Illinois ChicagoHorz0.41980.49771665-176-220-30-00-32-134-33-7270244299-5.8-0.4
285283.4PepperdineWCC0.42690.49611676-167-210-00-30-42-65-73-11307256294-10.6-0.7
163160.4Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.50480.495316811-1115-140-30-11-25-88-17-41272261600.40.0
234231.8Georgia St.CAA0.46230.49521699-1512-180-00-50-33-59-56-6216269239-7.2-0.4
113113.3AkronMAC0.53160.495217016-720-100-10-21-210-59-19-5151204133-19.7-1.0
158157.5NiagaraMAAC0.50660.495117113-1216-150-00-11-37-97-27-6159231159-1.5-0.1
275275.5Idaho St.BSky0.43220.49501724-176-210-10-11-61-85-52-92591012696.50.4
296293.2Eastern WashingtonBSky0.42000.49491734-185-230-10-10-61-64-92-10261110302-8.8-0.7
9395.2Morehead St.OVC0.54370.494617415-719-90-10-11-45-213-13-612013107-11.8-0.8
241240.2ManhattanMAAC0.45670.49441758-1610-190-10-20-43-107-26-5175246246-5.8-0.4
8990.2College of CharlestonSC0.54780.494117616-820-100-10-11-15-613-25-713451882.20.1
215210.1Portland St.BSky0.47610.49341778-1311-170-00-12-52-68-53-920699217-6.9-0.3
119122.0Oral RobertsSum0.52630.492717813-1118-121-11-10-62-213-24-8143311184.00.2
161159.1Western KentuckySB0.50560.490917913-1117-141-00-12-25-810-37-613679172-12.9-0.6
207205.0Loyola MarymountWCC0.47920.489418011-1213-160-00-42-41-39-68-7173239209-4.0-0.2
ExpectedRPISOSSOS RankCurrentProjected1-2526-5051-100101-200200+Non Conf ForecastsCurrentOver-
OverallRPI RankTeamConfForecastForecastForecastW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LRPISOSRPIRatedt-stat
107108.8FairfieldMAAC0.53460.488918116-719-100-10-21-26-412-17-4107267115-6.2-0.3
194197.1Bowling GreenMAC0.48340.488418210-1113-150-10-11-14-107-27-518328118512.10.6
279276.7Tennessee St.OVC0.43140.48831835-207-240-10-10-52-96-83-102371372715.70.4
295292.1TowsonCAA0.42060.48821845-177-210-10-40-31-85-63-82902532911.10.1
146145.1Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.51340.48801859-1014-130-10-20-42-212-43-8217121180-34.9-1.4
185184.8Loyola ChicagoHorz0.49090.487618611-1013-140-30-01-15-87-17-274270188-3.2-0.2
262266.3BrownIvy0.43850.48731875-168-210-10-30-61-47-84-11246172268-1.7-0.1
255257.2SamfordSC0.44490.48691886-158-190-10-20-51-77-43-6195832543.20.2
198202.4Tennessee TechOVC0.48080.485718910-1212-160-10-00-62-410-44-615410719012.40.7
155152.4Boston UniversityAE0.50930.484819013-1117-120-21-10-23-613-16-717264162-9.6-0.6
218214.0Boise St.WAC0.47370.484819110-1214-160-00-21-65-48-310-4174338222-8.0-0.4
199202.7CanisiusMAAC0.48040.484419211-1414-160-00-21-25-97-46-62233051975.70.4
147145.2St. Peter'sMAAC0.51310.484419314-1017-120-00-21-28-38-46-52203071423.20.2
302297.7PennsylvaniaIvy0.41610.48371943-156-220-30-10-30-65-91-13328222306-8.3-0.7
7579.9Sam Houston St.Slnd0.55630.483319512-518-70-10-00-17-311-24-514989754.90.3
173170.2TroySB0.49940.482719610-1113-130-00-10-26-57-42-6210781673.20.2
187186.5Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.48980.48211979-1414-150-20-20-13-511-54-819477193-6.5-0.4
284282.7ElonSC0.42710.48181984-177-220-10-10-42-85-92-92711612739.70.6
131134.5Appalachian St.SC0.51920.481519911-917-110-10-12-16-48-55-5102461259.50.4
212209.3The CitadelSC0.47680.481520010-1213-150-20-10-42-410-44-6184127219-9.7-0.5
289286.4Florida InternationalSB0.42460.48142016-197-230-00-10-42-105-82-102872032779.40.8
5252.1CornellIvy0.58220.481120218-325-40-20-03-28-014-012-345139493.10.4
293288.1RiceCUSA0.42360.48102037-159-200-10-20-51-78-56-72442632862.10.2
152148.7DenverSB0.51160.480920414-917-120-10-01-25-512-47-480521480.70.0
105106.7IUPUISum0.53560.480420515-819-100-10-01-45-313-25-613756108-1.3-0.1
267269.0Holy CrossPat0.43680.48012066-179-200-10-10-21-108-73-12275156278-9.0-0.5
238237.3BinghamtonAE0.45890.47942079-1411-180-10-10-23-118-43-102571322352.30.2
180179.5Loyola MDMAAC0.49370.478820812-1215-140-10-21-35-610-28-3118318184-4.5-0.3
222219.8ChattanoogaSC0.47000.478620911-1213-160-10-21-44-38-66-5144140220-0.2-0.0
247246.7NC AshevilleBSth0.45220.47862107-1410-160-20-10-22-68-60-8267623313.70.9
ExpectedRPISOSSOS RankCurrentProjected1-2526-5051-100101-200200+Non Conf ForecastsCurrentOver-
OverallRPI RankTeamConfForecastForecastForecastW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LRPISOSRPIRatedt-stat
143144.6UC Santa BarbaraBW0.51370.478421112-816-100-10-11-13-311-44-61821221386.60.3
246244.2James MadisonCAA0.45380.478021210-1312-180-01-51-41-69-48-5203346245-0.8-0.0
249250.0Northern IllinoisMAC0.44990.47712138-1411-180-10-10-42-89-44-92652492446.00.4
167162.9DetroitHorz0.50350.476621413-1018-120-20-10-210-58-38-4180321174-11.1-0.6
326323.6DartmouthIvy0.39130.47642153-165-220-00-10-30-85-103-103062343203.60.4
230225.5Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.46630.47632169-1413-180-10-10-15-99-66-9214177229-3.5-0.2
304298.7South Carolina UpstateASun0.41540.47622174-186-230-00-10-21-116-80-931969304-5.3-0.4
95100.2WoffordSC0.54030.476021816-820-100-10-12-43-315-17-586119102-1.8-0.1
318316.8Southern UtahSum0.39900.47582194-176-210-00-10-40-65-92-725682318-1.2-0.1
190192.5Montana St.BSky0.48650.475422010-1113-130-00-01-54-48-44-6228215195-2.5-0.1
202204.1Northern ArizonaBSky0.47980.47522219-1111-140-10-10-51-510-24-516819618717.10.9
171167.5Arkansas St.SB0.50080.474822212-915-120-00-10-36-410-33-624718915710.50.5
339335.4Tennessee MartinOVC0.37390.47472231-192-250-00-10-50-82-100-8332164337-1.6-0.3
98101.2Western CarolinaSC0.53970.473522415-619-90-11-12-15-312-37-33857938.20.5
197201.1Florida AtlanticSB0.48110.473122510-1213-140-00-10-24-79-42-7276208203-1.9-0.1
297292.0Nicholls St.Slnd0.42000.47292264-147-180-10-00-31-76-71-826970296-4.0-0.2
114115.6PacificBW0.53050.472722715-720-100-11-22-13-415-29-51311691123.60.2
127131.4Eastern KentuckyOVC0.52110.472422815-819-100-10-11-34-314-27-4132192139-7.6-0.4
186186.3Central MichiganMAC0.49010.472222910-1015-130-10-01-33-710-35-72252591815.30.2
331329.0SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.38520.47152302-212-240-10-00-41-52-132-19325268331-2.0-0.3
299293.1AlbanyAE0.41960.47152316-208-230-10-10-22-116-85-10231176300-6.9-0.5
303298.6Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.41570.47062326-167-220-00-00-51-107-62-8272185301-2.4-0.2
282278.3Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.43020.47052338-1610-210-10-10-21-89-94-1129120926018.31.2
201203.7Louisiana LafayetteSB0.48030.470523410-1113-140-00-11-15-67-62-7284262234-30.3-1.4
213210.1Ball St.MAC0.47620.470323511-1014-140-30-21-16-37-56-623625019218.10.9
99102.5MontanaBSky0.53840.470223615-718-80-00-11-25-311-27-3831951002.50.2
174173.0RadfordBSth0.49750.470023711-1015-120-20-10-14-211-63-622226175-2.0-0.1
328326.0PresbyterianBSth0.38860.46912383-215-250-10-30-40-75-121-11278763233.00.3
205204.6South Dakota St.Sum0.47930.469123911-1114-130-10-00-42-411-42-7274147211-6.4-0.4
233230.3MercerASun0.46350.46902409-1212-160-10-20-24-68-52-623481240-9.7-0.5
ExpectedRPISOSSOS RankCurrentProjected1-2526-5051-100101-200200+Non Conf ForecastsCurrentOver-
OverallRPI RankTeamConfForecastForecastForecastW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LRPISOSRPIRatedt-stat
248250.1ColumbiaIvy0.44990.46902418-1211-170-10-10-31-610-66-82272482473.10.2
142143.2JacksonvilleASun0.51430.468024213-1017-120-10-20-24-413-44-5121841376.20.3
139139.8BelmontASun0.51630.468024315-1019-110-10-10-26-313-55-513596144-4.2-0.3
188188.1Middle TennesseeSB0.48910.467624412-1116-130-20-10-15-611-34-7254186194-5.9-0.3
294292.2CentenarySum0.42060.46742456-167-200-00-10-61-47-83-62181442848.20.6
254256.5Texas St.Slnd0.44520.46702467-1210-160-10-00-32-77-62-8331285261-4.5-0.2
8889.5HarvardIvy0.54800.466824714-520-70-10-11-23-215-110-36221692-2.5-0.2
217213.6Eastern MichiganMAC0.47400.466724810-1113-150-00-11-24-68-56-6192279216-2.4-0.1
216212.6Cal St. FullertonBW0.47440.46542499-1113-140-00-11-24-48-65-62072252084.60.2
240239.8LamarSlnd0.45690.464825010-1113-150-00-00-33-69-65-72632652363.80.2
225221.2South AlabamaSB0.46910.464625111-1213-150-01-11-13-99-36-41692642183.20.2
269269.1North Dakota St.Sum0.43640.46412527-149-170-00-10-31-88-51-7296188285-15.9-1.1
228223.8North FloridaASun0.46770.463925310-1313-160-00-00-33-810-44-514613120617.81.1
310308.9Gardner WebbBSth0.40670.46362544-166-200-20-10-20-66-90-83034928820.91.6
253255.8YaleIvy0.44580.46252558-1411-190-00-20-40-811-55-11279296272-16.2-1.1
260264.2UC RiversideBW0.43990.46252567-1410-170-10-10-23-67-85-62292432586.20.4
261265.2Jacksonville St.OVC0.43940.46252578-1311-160-00-10-42-59-53-63233042632.20.1
221217.6Eastern IllinoisOVC0.47140.462525810-1113-140-00-00-42-711-35-420528320215.60.8
270269.6Louisiana MonroeSB0.43630.46212598-1410-170-00-01-33-96-63-625525525514.60.9
335331.2StetsonASun0.38170.46162603-184-230-00-20-21-83-110-73301733256.21.0
292287.6Sacramento St.BSky0.42400.45992617-168-200-00-00-51-77-84-8253306303-15.4-1.2
182181.1WinthropBSth0.49300.457326211-1015-120-00-10-31-513-32-723395183-1.9-0.1
317316.7Virginia Military InstBSth0.39910.45722634-155-190-00-10-20-75-91-525136321-4.3-0.3
286284.9HartfordAE0.42580.45662647-169-200-20-00-11-109-72-113382822831.90.1
116120.1PrincetonIvy0.52760.456526512-519-80-10-12-12-315-18-51582911200.10.0
157154.9MaineAE0.50830.455826614-817-110-10-01-14-513-47-513023014113.90.8
251252.2LibertyBSth0.44840.45572679-1211-160-00-20-21-710-52-72601142493.20.2
265267.9North Carolina A&TMEAC0.43730.45572685-1510-180-10-10-51-38-92-10288125275-7.1-0.4
6868.0Murray St.OVC0.56670.455026920-325-40-10-11-17-116-06-37818190-22.0-2.6
227222.4Seattleind0.46840.454827011-1315-160-00-11-43-511-614-162192722139.40.5
ExpectedRPISOSSOS RankCurrentProjected1-2526-5051-100101-200200+Non Conf ForecastsCurrentOver-
OverallRPI RankTeamConfForecastForecastForecastW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LRPISOSRPIRatedt-stat
211207.7Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.47750.45462717-1414-150-20-20-30-513-40-112839237-29.3-1.5
291286.8Longwoodind0.42400.45422725-168-190-10-30-31-27-105-1726817525630.81.7
323322.0Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.39290.45382735-176-230-00-20-11-75-136-21311284333-11.0-1.1
156153.8Robert MorrisNEC0.50860.453627416-820-110-20-10-14-415-46-8213206156-2.2-0.1
272272.8Cal PolyBW0.43410.45332758-1410-190-10-10-12-68-103-1031331425913.80.8
274273.4New HampshireAE0.43330.45312767-1310-170-10-10-12-88-64-7258266297-23.6-1.2
288285.3UC DavisBW0.42530.45282777-139-190-00-00-11-98-92-103213202805.30.3
287285.0McNeese St.Slnd0.42530.45282785-149-180-00-10-31-47-102-9298242287-2.0-0.1
306306.0ColgatePat0.40900.45222796-169-190-10-00-11-88-104-10309293314-8.0-0.6
183183.0Texas San AntonioSlnd0.49200.451828010-815-110-00-10-23-412-47-3126301204-21.0-0.9
330326.2Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.38790.45162813-226-250-10-10-40-66-121-1830891330-3.8-0.4
159158.4North TexasSB0.50590.450828213-817-100-10-10-04-413-46-3892211508.40.4
327324.6New OrleansSB0.39020.45072835-176-210-00-00-11-126-83-6305337332-7.4-0.8
311309.1Norfolk St.MEAC0.40620.45002845-168-210-10-10-31-47-122-11317170315-5.9-0.4
243241.9IUPU Fort WayneSum0.45560.45002859-1212-150-20-10-32-410-54-5230271242-0.1-0.0
325323.2WagnerNEC0.39190.44942864-217-240-10-00-11-85-153-11326310329-5.8-0.7
257258.2Long IslandNEC0.44430.44922879-1412-170-00-00-33-59-94-9280258266-7.8-0.5
313312.5St. Francis PANEC0.40330.44912887-169-200-00-10-21-78-103-93142543102.50.2
189190.8CampbellASun0.48720.448628912-916-110-00-00-13-612-43-4238252198-7.2-0.4
196201.5LipscombASun0.48120.448329012-1116-120-10-10-25-311-52-63102892001.50.1
100103.7Northern ColoradoBSky0.53760.447529119-523-60-00-02-26-214-211-2100316994.70.4
345344.6Bryantind0.34390.44732920-241-290-00-00-30-61-191-29342303345-0.4-0.2
263266.7FurmanSC0.43810.44712939-1211-160-00-10-41-59-64-5252319270-3.3-0.2
259264.4Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.44000.44692948-911-140-10-10-22-49-64-5289341265-0.6-0.0
103106.3Morgan St.MEAC0.53590.446329517-724-90-10-10-23-422-19-8139199131-24.7-1.9
148145.4VermontAE0.51310.444429617-821-100-00-00-28-413-410-5150294163-17.6-1.1
280277.0UC IrvineBW0.43100.44402978-1412-170-10-00-13-89-86-726632826413.00.7
273273.8Kennesaw St.ASun0.43340.444029810-1311-180-10-00-11-1010-53-6293311279-5.2-0.4
206204.5Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.47920.44392999-914-110-00-00-21-512-44-5215235223-18.5-0.8
312311.3Florida Gulf CoastASun0.40470.44283007-178-210-10-00-12-86-113-6281315313-1.7-0.2
ExpectedRPISOSSOS RankCurrentProjected1-2526-5051-100101-200200+Non Conf ForecastsCurrentOver-
OverallRPI RankTeamConfForecastForecastForecastW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LRPISOSRPIRatedt-stat
239236.6Delaware St.MEAC0.45860.44223018-912-120-00-10-21-511-42-62851352324.60.2
164160.8LehighPat0.50480.441830215-819-100-00-10-02-317-59-6178302168-7.2-0.3
266268.6Charleston SouthernBSth0.43690.44163038-1210-150-00-10-22-58-72-5240190274-5.4-0.3
320318.5Central ArkansasSlnd0.39660.44153044-156-200-10-00-31-46-113-7273297328-9.5-0.7
329325.5Florida A&MMEAC0.38820.44103054-177-220-10-20-10-67-132-11318224326-0.5-0.0
314313.9HowardMEAC0.40190.44063066-188-230-00-10-10-88-121-143352003085.90.5
319316.9Northwestern St.Slnd0.39840.44003074-137-180-10-10-20-56-102-7316308324-7.1-0.5
278276.3BucknellPat0.43150.43973089-1512-180-00-10-22-510-95-11304326282-5.7-0.3
346345.0Alcorn St.SWAC0.34120.43923090-232-290-10-20-20-52-190-13320613432.01.0
283279.4Missouri Kansas CitySum0.42940.43903108-1310-170-00-10-30-510-64-5250330293-13.6-0.9
316314.2Winston Salem St.ind0.40060.43883115-128-180-10-20-20-48-107-1830030029024.21.6
341339.8MD Baltimore CountyAE0.36280.43833122-213-260-00-00-11-102-141-12344340340-0.2-0.1
268269.1NavyPat0.43670.437531311-1213-160-00-00-23-610-86-9295327276-6.9-0.4
208205.9Texas SouthernSWAC0.47840.43753149-1115-130-00-10-32-413-52-822123228-22.1-1.2
307306.9AmericanPat0.40820.43743157-169-200-10-10-12-58-123-12340336312-5.1-0.4
315313.8Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.40190.43733166-169-210-00-00-40-59-122-123272603076.80.5
151148.3Stony BrookAE0.51170.436631715-719-90-10-00-15-314-47-5187322153-4.7-0.2
281277.8MonmouthNEC0.43060.435531810-1413-170-00-00-13-810-86-8292335298-20.2-1.3
308307.7Western IllinoisSum0.40780.43533196-148-180-10-00-40-48-94-4242339309-1.3-0.1
203203.7LafayettePat0.47980.434532014-917-120-10-00-01-516-69-6200324207-3.3-0.2
337332.1Coppin St.MEAC0.37800.43423212-165-210-10-10-21-44-133-7277261338-5.9-0.7
172170.0Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.49940.433732213-617-90-00-10-22-216-37-31422871655.00.2
204204.0ArmyPat0.47950.432132312-916-110-00-01-12-413-69-4152325225-21.0-1.0
245244.3Jackson St.SWAC0.45400.428332410-1114-150-10-10-20-614-51-1029793252-7.7-0.4
321319.2Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.39600.42813255-178-220-00-10-20-78-120-12337134322-2.8-0.2
232229.3Bethune CookmanMEAC0.46400.427832611-915-130-00-20-20-315-66-6198241243-13.7-0.7
137138.6QuinnipiacNEC0.51690.426032716-721-80-10-00-02-419-38-5181333169-30.4-1.8
219214.2South Carolina St.MEAC0.47350.42413289-815-110-00-10-20-214-64-6212273226-11.8-0.6
276275.6St. Francis NYNEC0.43200.423732910-1313-160-10-00-12-611-95-8302342281-5.4-0.4
271269.4High PointBSth0.43610.42283309-1212-150-10-00-12-510-83-62823312672.40.1
ExpectedRPISOSSOS RankCurrentProjected1-2526-5051-100101-200200+Non Conf ForecastsCurrentOver-
OverallRPI RankTeamConfForecastForecastForecastW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LRPISOSRPIRatedt-stat
290286.6HamptonMEAC0.42430.42033317-1513-170-00-10-40-312-104-10286298305-18.4-1.1
242240.9Sacred HeartNEC0.45620.420033212-1116-130-10-00-02-514-79-4176345257-16.1-0.9
347345.5North Carolina Centralind0.33740.41913331-203-230-00-00-40-42-161-20345313347-1.5-0.8
322321.8Savannah St.ind0.39360.41803346-147-150-10-10-00-57-75-13301292327-5.2-0.5
126129.1Coastal CarolinaBSth0.52210.417333517-422-50-10-02-02-219-27-2147329140-10.9-0.8
336331.1North DakotaGWC0.38050.41143363-168-190-10-10-10-47-122-1333323231120.12.4
343342.8SouthernSWAC0.35120.40853374-176-230-20-10-10-46-152-9322227344-1.2-0.4
338333.3NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.37530.40663384-147-190-00-00-20-67-102-12324237334-0.7-0.1
309307.7Central ConnecticutNEC0.40720.40433399-1412-170-00-00-10-512-115-8339347319-11.3-0.8
237236.2South DakotaGWC0.45940.40133409-915-100-10-10-31-214-35-82452132315.20.4
250250.9Prairie View A&MSWAC0.44890.40083418-913-120-10-10-21-113-61-6329184251-0.1-0.0
305302.5Alabama St.SWAC0.41180.40083426-1210-160-00-10-01-59-90-8346245317-14.5-0.9
344342.9Chicago St.GWC0.35070.39823434-166-210-00-00-20-56-142-13336295346-3.1-1.1
340338.6GramblingSWAC0.36500.39623444-136-190-10-00-10-36-131-6312238341-2.4-0.4
342342.5Houston BaptistGWC0.35220.39503455-177-230-00-00-10-57-161-173473233420.50.2
332327.5Alabama A&MSWAC0.38430.38813464-108-140-00-10-10-38-90-4343193336-8.5-0.7
334329.2Utah ValleyGWC0.38230.38253477-1210-150-10-10-10-110-113-10334317339-9.8-0.9

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data and Jeff Sagarin for the use of "PREDICTOR" to generate probabilities.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com