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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Georgetown

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:106.0
Current RPI:106
Expected SOS:23
Current SOS:23
Current Record:15-18
Expected Record:15-18
Current Conf Record:8-12
Expected Conf Record:8-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:128
Expected OOC SOS:50



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-18106.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgetown.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Radford (192.0)BSthH80-82L0%0.0
11-17Maryland (14.0)B10A75-71L0%0.0
11-20Wisconsin (43.0)B10N71-61W100%0.0
11-22Duke (20.0)ACCN86-84L0%0.0
11-28Bryant (320.0)NECH77-47W100%0.0
12-1Maryland Eastern Shore (307.0)MEACH68-49W100%0.0
12-5Syracuse (72.0)ACCH79-72W100%0.0
12-7Brown (312.0)IvyH74-57W100%0.0
12-12UNC Wilmington (45.0)CAAH87-82W100%0.0
12-15Monmouth (52.0)MAACH68-83L0%0.0
12-19UNC Asheville (137.0)BSthH73-79L0%0.0
12-22Charlotte (234.0)CUSAA59-62W100%0.0
12-30DePaul (198.0)BEA58-70W100%0.0
1-2Marquette (110.0)BEH80-70W100%0.0
1-5Creighton (100.0)BEA79-66L0%0.0
1-9DePaul (198.0)BEH74-63W100%0.0
1-13St. John's (246.0)BEA73-93W100%0.0
1-16Villanova (4.0)BEH50-55L0%0.0
1-19Xavier (7.0)BEA72-81W100%0.0
1-23Connecticut (32.0)AmerA68-62L0%0.0
1-26Creighton (100.0)BEH74-73W100%0.0
1-30Providence (40.0)BEH69-73L0%0.0
2-2Butler (57.0)BEA87-76L0%0.0
2-6Seton Hall (19.0)BEA69-61L0%0.0
2-8St. John's (246.0)BEH92-67W100%0.0
2-13Providence (40.0)BEA75-72L0%0.0
2-17Seton Hall (19.0)BEH64-72L0%0.0
2-20Xavier (7.0)BEH70-88L0%0.0
2-27Butler (57.0)BEH87-90L0%0.0
3-1Marquette (110.0)BEA88-87L0%0.0
3-5Villanova (4.0)BEA84-71L0%0.0
3-9DePaul (198.0)BEN70-53W100%0.0
3-10Villanova (4.0)BEN81-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgetown's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgetown's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgetown.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
GeorgetownBE26.4026.4041.9441.94-4.26-4.26
VillanovaBE5.445.4483.8783.873.693.69
DePaulBE5.345.3432.1432.14-1.91-1.91
ProvidenceBE4.054.0567.7467.741.441.44
Seton HallBE4.044.0474.1974.191.961.96
MarquetteBE4.004.0061.2961.290.900.90
XavierBE3.973.9786.6786.672.912.91
St. John'sBE3.943.9424.1424.14-2.04-2.04
CreightonBE3.923.9256.6756.670.520.52
ButlerBE3.923.9265.5265.521.221.22
SyracuseACC1.661.6661.2961.290.370.37
WisconsinB101.631.6364.5264.520.470.47
BryantNEC1.611.6124.1424.14-0.83-0.83
MarylandB101.611.6174.1974.190.780.78
RadfordBSth1.591.5946.4346.43-0.11-0.11
BrownIvy1.591.5926.9226.92-0.73-0.73
UNC AshevilleBSth1.571.5763.3363.330.420.42
DukeACC1.561.5668.7568.750.590.59
ConnecticutAmer1.561.5669.7069.700.620.62
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.541.5479.3179.310.900.90
CharlotteCUSA1.541.5443.7543.75-0.19-0.19
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.541.5430.0030.00-0.62-0.62
MonmouthMAAC1.521.5278.7978.790.870.87
RutgersB100.210.2119.3519.35-0.13-0.13
NebraskaB100.210.2147.0647.06-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.210.2165.6265.620.060.06
IndianaB100.190.1978.1278.120.110.11
MichiganB100.190.1963.6463.640.050.05
WagnerNEC0.170.1767.7467.740.060.06
Michigan St.B100.170.1785.2985.290.120.12
CincinnatiAmer0.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
CampbellBSth0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
PresbyterianBSth0.150.1528.5728.57-0.06-0.06
Penn St.B100.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
ElonCAA0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
PurdueB100.140.1476.4776.470.080.08
SienaMAAC0.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
IUPUISum0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
StanfordP120.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
RiderMAAC0.140.1439.3939.39-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
HarvardIvy0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
WinthropBSth0.130.1368.9768.970.050.05
PennIvy0.120.1237.0437.04-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
NiagaraMAAC0.120.1221.8821.88-0.07-0.07
Chicago St.WAC0.120.123.453.45-0.11-0.11
George WashingtonA100.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
PittsburghACC0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
DelawareCAA0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
IllinoisB100.120.1244.1244.12-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.120.1282.3582.350.080.08
Wake ForestACC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Boston CollegeACC0.120.1221.8821.88-0.07-0.07
Georgia TechACC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
VirginiaACC0.110.1178.7978.790.070.07
YaleIvy0.100.1077.7877.780.060.06
CornellIvy0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.100.1057.6957.690.020.02
High PointBSth0.100.1064.2964.290.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.1013.7913.79-0.07-0.07
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
DrexelCAA0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
MaineAE0.100.1026.6726.67-0.04-0.04
NJITASun0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Ohio St.B100.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Arizona St.P120.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
MassachusettsA100.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
USCP120.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
Notre DameACC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0979.4179.410.050.05
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0865.5265.520.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.080.0877.7877.780.040.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
HofstraCAA0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
New HampshireAE0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0722.2222.22-0.04-0.04
HowardMEAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.070.0787.1087.100.050.05
DrakeMVC0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0710.7110.71-0.06-0.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
MaristMAAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
SMUAmer0.070.0783.3383.330.050.05
The CitadelSC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0729.1729.17-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0762.8662.860.020.02
UTSACUSA0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
FurmanSC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
DaytonA100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
LouisvilleACC0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
RiceCUSA0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.070.0724.2424.24-0.04-0.04
AkronMAC0.070.0775.7675.760.030.03
IonaMAAC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
La SalleA100.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0556.0056.000.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
VMISC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
ArmyPat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
ArizonaP120.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
BelmontOVC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.9012.90-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
LSUSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.040.0442.4242.42-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.040.0470.9770.970.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.040.0430.0030.00-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.040.0435.2935.29-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.040.0464.5264.520.010.01
UCFAmer0.040.0440.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Kansas St.B120.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
LehighPat0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
DavidsonA100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
FIUCUSA0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
UtahP120.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
WashingtonP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
TexasB120.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
UCLAP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01