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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Georgetown

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:142.9
Current RPI:153
Expected SOS:95
Current SOS:210
Current Record:13-6
Expected Record:16-13
Current Conf Record:3-5
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-0
Current OOC Record:10-1
Expected OOC Record:10-1
Expected OOC RPI:182
Expected OOC SOS:351



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-855.70.03%
20-969.80.19%
19-1083.11.35%
18-1199.76.90%
17-12117.917.94%
16-13138.028.34%
15-14156.927.80%
14-15174.314.77%
13-16189.62.67%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgetown.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Jacksonville (301.6)ASunH73-57W100%0.0
11-15Mount St. Mary's (257.3)NECH102-68W100%0.0
11-18Maryland Eastern Shore (335.1)MEACH83-57W100%0.0
11-25Richmond (201.6)A10A76-82W100%0.0
11-28Maine (331.6)AEH76-55W100%0.0
12-3Coppin St. (342.5)MEACH76-60W100%0.0
12-7Howard (331.8)MEACH81-67W100%0.0
12-9North Carolina A&T (241.0)MEACH83-74W100%0.0
12-16Syracuse (44.3)ACCH79-86L0%0.0
12-20North Texas (217.4)CUSAH75-63W100%0.0
12-23Alabama A&M (348.6)SWACH89-49W100%0.0
12-27Butler (37.4)BEH89-91L0%0.0
12-30Marquette (52.5)BEA74-65L0%0.0
1-2DePaul (187.0)BEA81-90W100%0.0
1-6Creighton (29.6)BEH66-90L0%0.0
1-9St. John's (95.3)BEA66-69W100%0.0
1-13Seton Hall (25.9)BEA74-61L0%0.0
1-17Villanova (1.9)BEH56-88L0%0.0
1-20St. John's (95.3)BEH93-89W100%0.0
1-24DePaul (187.0)BEH0-067%5.0
1-27Creighton (29.6)BEA0-010%-14.0
2-3Xavier (6.3)BEA0-09%-14.7
2-6Providence (44.5)BEA0-023%-8.3
2-10Seton Hall (25.9)BEH0-033%-4.9
2-13Butler (37.4)BEA0-017%-10.6
2-21Xavier (6.3)BEH0-023%-8.3
2-24Providence (44.5)BEH0-043%-1.9
2-26Marquette (52.5)BEH0-039%-3.0
3-3Villanova (1.9)BEA0-03%-21.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgetown's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgetown's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgetown.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
GeorgetownBE26.4526.3460.0047.605.29-1.26
CreightonBE3.034.3873.6868.981.441.66
MarquetteBE2.974.3866.6759.150.990.80
DePaulBE3.044.3844.4435.59-0.34-1.26
ButlerBE2.974.3565.0061.110.890.97
ProvidenceBE0.474.3570.0060.030.190.87
Seton HallBE3.034.3573.6866.811.441.46
VillanovaBE2.974.3594.4489.742.643.46
XavierBE0.544.3585.7179.810.392.59
St. John'sBE5.534.3552.9445.170.33-0.42
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.771.9316.6721.66-1.85-1.09
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.841.9058.8258.770.500.33
HowardMEAC2.631.8711.1128.27-2.05-0.81
Coppin St.MEAC2.771.8410.0018.50-2.22-1.16
Mount St. Mary'sNEC2.761.8144.4446.57-0.31-0.12
Alabama A&MSWAC2.701.7811.1117.31-2.10-1.16
JacksonvilleASun2.701.7535.2935.07-0.80-0.52
MaineAE2.631.7211.1115.36-2.05-1.19
North TexasCUSA2.631.7247.0648.32-0.15-0.06
RichmondA102.631.7233.3335.55-0.88-0.50
SyracuseACC2.631.7266.6759.940.880.34
Central ConnecticutNEC0.480.2652.3848.530.02-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.280.2450.0052.460.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.130.2143.7554.11-0.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.140.200.009.09-0.14-0.17
Sacred HeartNEC0.280.2030.0033.47-0.11-0.07
South Carolina St.MEAC0.210.1827.7831.71-0.09-0.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.270.1729.4139.63-0.11-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.280.1750.0051.640.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.070.1720.0041.73-0.04-0.03
VCUA100.200.1760.0059.700.040.03
Boston CollegeACC0.140.1765.0054.670.040.02
Saint LouisA100.130.1747.3746.92-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.130.1510.0019.63-0.11-0.09
AmericanPat0.280.1526.3228.11-0.13-0.06
VermontAE0.210.1575.0077.850.100.08
NebraskaB100.280.1466.6759.820.090.03
George WashingtonA100.140.1445.0043.48-0.01-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.200.1480.9583.260.130.10
Rhode IslandA100.070.1483.3381.430.040.09
USC UpstateASun0.140.1211.1118.00-0.11-0.08
Kennesaw St.ASun0.140.1216.6724.91-0.09-0.06
NJITASun0.140.1238.8942.61-0.03-0.02
UABCUSA0.210.1261.1164.130.050.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.140.1218.7536.82-0.08-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.200.1227.7834.50-0.09-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.140.1223.5332.57-0.07-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.070.1236.8445.21-0.02-0.01
WagnerNEC0.140.1264.7164.570.040.03
Notre DameACC0.210.1263.1661.020.050.03
NorthwesternB100.140.1155.0050.330.010.00
MassachusettsA100.070.1150.0046.810.00-0.01
MarylandB100.200.1170.0065.250.080.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.140.1112.5025.45-0.10-0.06
Arizona St.P120.140.1178.9576.130.080.06
BaylorB120.070.1161.1156.090.010.01
PurdueB100.130.1190.4888.370.110.09
WisconsinB100.070.1150.0046.300.00-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.130.1121.0523.51-0.08-0.06
CincinnatiAmer0.130.1189.4785.550.100.08
ConnecticutAmer0.200.1152.6347.390.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.060.1123.5328.69-0.03-0.05
Northern IowaMVC0.070.1144.4450.08-0.010.00
RiderMAAC0.000.1165.0065.320.000.03
North FloridaASun0.140.0931.5835.15-0.05-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.140.0933.3334.10-0.05-0.03
DuquesneA100.140.0970.0058.090.060.01
Old DominionCUSA0.210.0978.9576.750.120.05
UMBCAE0.130.0955.5655.540.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.210.0968.4257.740.080.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.140.0960.0062.030.030.02
St. BonaventureA100.140.0966.6768.730.050.03
Georgia TechACC0.140.0952.6343.110.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.140.0920.0032.25-0.08-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.140.0936.8444.11-0.04-0.01
IndianaB100.140.0957.8950.710.020.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.140.0938.8943.43-0.03-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0968.4263.650.000.02
OhioMAC0.200.0947.0648.41-0.01-0.00
PennIvy0.140.0964.7162.720.040.02
PittsburghACC0.140.0940.0030.87-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.140.0978.9571.810.080.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0968.4270.810.030.04
DukeACC0.000.0989.4785.210.000.06
IonaMAAC0.210.0960.0064.110.040.02
OregonP120.130.0965.0063.850.040.02
La SalleA100.140.0840.0042.69-0.03-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.140.0842.1140.46-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.070.0878.9569.790.040.03
MinnesotaB100.070.0863.6457.630.020.01
RutgersB100.130.0855.0046.690.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0821.0544.26-0.04-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0657.8966.260.000.02
LipscombASun0.070.0652.9459.340.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.0633.3336.930.00-0.02
MichiganB100.140.0676.1970.740.070.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0665.0056.340.020.01
AlbanyAE0.070.0671.4370.240.030.02
BinghamtonAE0.070.0642.1139.94-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.070.069.5217.12-0.06-0.04
FIUCUSA0.000.0635.2935.540.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0637.5037.680.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.070.0650.0045.930.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.140.0650.0054.190.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0640.0042.52-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0633.3340.080.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.070.0611.1117.68-0.06-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0657.1460.410.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0633.3335.21-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0652.9459.250.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0633.3333.870.00-0.02
UTSACUSA0.070.0641.1839.65-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.140.0631.5829.06-0.05-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.140.0670.0068.220.060.02
ClemsonACC0.070.0684.2173.240.050.03
East CarolinaAmer0.140.0642.1132.47-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.140.0646.6746.97-0.01-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.140.0641.1838.47-0.03-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.070.060.003.07-0.07-0.05
DavidsonA100.070.0658.8261.450.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0629.4133.93-0.03-0.02
George MasonA100.000.0645.0041.300.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0666.6755.940.020.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.140.0670.0071.230.060.02
IllinoisB100.070.0647.3744.27-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0642.1146.00-0.01-0.00
LSUSEC0.070.0661.1153.170.020.00
Miami OHMAC0.070.0647.0641.41-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.070.0685.0083.200.050.04
MissouriSEC0.140.0666.6763.200.050.02
New OrleansSlnd0.140.0637.5045.24-0.03-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.070.0629.4134.76-0.03-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0641.1839.16-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.140.0657.8950.840.020.00
PortlandWCC0.070.0627.7827.28-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0636.8432.76-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.140.0668.4260.860.050.01
UCLAP120.070.0665.0062.050.020.01
Wichita St.Amer0.070.0678.9577.380.040.03
YaleIvy0.070.0641.1847.56-0.01-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0616.6724.26-0.05-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0630.0036.50-0.03-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0671.4374.660.000.03
BrownIvy0.000.0650.0045.140.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0660.0053.720.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0677.7879.150.000.03
FurmanSC0.060.0666.6768.540.020.02
HofstraCAA0.070.0657.8959.490.010.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0678.9572.990.000.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.065.8819.350.00-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.0644.4444.920.00-0.01
LafayettePat0.070.0622.2227.47-0.04-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0650.0050.860.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.060.0010.67-0.07-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0627.7841.03-0.03-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0650.0051.380.000.00
Ohio St.B100.060.0680.9576.520.040.03
Portland St.BSky0.060.0658.8263.210.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0621.0539.480.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0652.9460.220.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0642.1146.09-0.01-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.0627.7840.970.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.070.0652.6351.740.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.070.0672.2268.930.030.02
TexasB120.060.0663.1657.630.020.01
UtahP120.060.0663.1659.710.020.01
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0636.8435.57-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.070.0694.7486.140.060.04
WashingtonP120.000.0670.0061.440.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0642.8635.24-0.01-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0331.5832.72-0.03-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0338.8944.08-0.02-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0338.8940.78-0.02-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0345.0047.07-0.01-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0311.1115.29-0.06-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.070.0368.4269.250.030.01
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0327.7831.11-0.03-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0350.0053.260.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0323.5325.64-0.04-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.070.0321.4326.35-0.04-0.01
DrakeMVC0.070.0355.0048.980.01-0.00
HawaiiBW0.070.0368.7563.990.030.01
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0344.4446.02-0.01-0.00
Iowa St.B120.070.0361.1147.220.02-0.00
LamarSlnd0.070.0350.0054.890.000.00
LehighPat0.070.0338.8944.75-0.02-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0352.6355.290.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.070.0322.2228.66-0.04-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0328.5731.26-0.03-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0372.2274.710.000.01
OklahomaB120.070.0377.7867.910.040.01
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0327.7827.10-0.03-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0335.0031.83-0.02-0.01
RadfordBSth0.070.0357.8958.850.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.070.0363.1657.540.020.00
South AlabamaSB0.070.0350.0045.870.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.070.0335.0026.12-0.02-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0355.0052.470.010.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0335.2940.48-0.02-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0357.8953.190.010.00
The CitadelSC0.070.0318.7518.36-0.05-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0322.2227.33-0.04-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0345.0045.03-0.01-0.00
BucknellPat0.070.0361.9068.020.020.01
DaytonA100.070.0347.3750.94-0.000.00
DelawareCAA0.070.0347.3743.02-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.070.0325.0028.24-0.03-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0383.3381.370.050.02
AlabamaSEC0.070.0368.4258.980.030.00
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0344.4446.00-0.01-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.070.0372.2274.930.030.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0320.0023.34-0.04-0.01
ColgatePat0.070.0350.0051.030.000.00
CornellIvy0.070.0333.3333.23-0.02-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.070.0373.6869.640.030.01
Georgia St.SB0.070.0366.6765.520.020.01
KansasB120.070.0384.2179.750.050.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0377.7870.480.000.01
NavyPat0.060.0360.0055.160.010.00
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0357.1453.050.010.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0380.0075.060.000.01
OaklandHorz0.070.0361.9065.160.020.01
Penn St.B100.060.0361.9055.760.010.00
SamfordSC0.070.0327.7832.66-0.03-0.01
ToledoMAC0.070.0366.6767.700.020.01
West VirginiaB120.060.0384.2178.170.040.02
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0338.8935.37-0.02-0.01