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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Georgetown

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:169.0
Current RPI:169
Expected SOS:104
Current SOS:104
Current Record:15-15
Expected Record:15-15
Current Conf Record:5-14
Expected Conf Record:5-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:10-1
Expected OOC Record:10-1
Expected OOC RPI:179
Expected OOC SOS:351



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-15169.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgetown.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Jacksonville (286.0)ASunH73-57W100%0.0
11-15Mount St. Mary's (225.0)NECH102-68W100%0.0
11-18Maryland Eastern Shore (346.0)MEACH83-57W100%0.0
11-25Richmond (176.0)A10A76-82W100%0.0
11-28Maine (338.0)AEH76-55W100%0.0
12-3Coppin St. (343.0)MEACH76-60W100%0.0
12-7Howard (339.0)MEACH81-67W100%0.0
12-9North Carolina A&T (238.0)MEACH83-74W100%0.0
12-16Syracuse (45.0)ACCH79-86L0%0.0
12-20North Texas (235.0)CUSAH75-63W100%0.0
12-23Alabama A&M (350.0)SWACH89-49W100%0.0
12-27Butler (41.0)BEH89-91L0%0.0
12-30Marquette (58.0)BEA74-65L0%0.0
1-2DePaul (186.0)BEA81-90W100%0.0
1-6Creighton (44.0)BEH66-90L0%0.0
1-9St. John's (92.0)BEA66-69W100%0.0
1-13Seton Hall (31.0)BEA74-61L0%0.0
1-17Villanova (2.0)BEH56-88L0%0.0
1-20St. John's (92.0)BEH93-89W100%0.0
1-24DePaul (186.0)BEH73-74L0%0.0
1-27Creighton (44.0)BEA85-77L0%0.0
2-3Xavier (3.0)BEA96-91L0%0.0
2-6Providence (32.0)BEA73-69L0%0.0
2-10Seton Hall (31.0)BEH83-80W100%0.0
2-13Butler (41.0)BEA83-87W100%0.0
2-21Xavier (3.0)BEH77-89L0%0.0
2-24Providence (32.0)BEH69-74L0%0.0
2-26Marquette (58.0)BEH86-90L0%0.0
3-3Villanova (2.0)BEA97-73L0%0.0
3-7St. John's (92.0)BEN88-77L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgetown's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgetown's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgetown.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
GeorgetownBE26.3526.3543.5743.57-3.39-3.39
St. John'sBE5.875.8748.2848.28-0.20-0.20
ProvidenceBE4.374.3759.3859.380.820.82
VillanovaBE4.364.3687.5087.503.273.27
MarquetteBE4.344.3456.6756.670.580.58
XavierBE4.344.3483.8783.872.942.94
ButlerBE4.314.3161.2961.290.970.97
DePaulBE4.284.2834.4834.48-1.33-1.33
CreightonBE4.284.2862.0762.071.031.03
Seton HallBE4.264.2666.6766.671.421.42
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.851.8517.2417.24-1.21-1.21
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.831.8358.0658.060.300.30
HowardMEAC1.801.8026.6726.67-0.84-0.84
Coppin St.MEAC1.781.7816.1316.13-1.20-1.20
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.741.7455.1755.170.180.18
Alabama A&MSWAC1.721.7210.0010.00-1.38-1.38
JacksonvilleASun1.691.6939.2939.29-0.36-0.36
MaineAE1.671.6713.7913.79-1.21-1.21
North TexasCUSA1.671.6744.8344.83-0.17-0.17
RichmondA101.671.6738.7138.71-0.38-0.38
SyracuseACC1.671.6759.3859.380.310.31
Central ConnecticutNEC0.270.2743.7543.75-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.220.2253.3353.330.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.210.2151.6151.610.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.210.216.676.67-0.18-0.18
Sacred HeartNEC0.210.2130.0030.00-0.08-0.08
HamptonMEAC0.210.2151.6151.610.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.160.1626.6726.67-0.08-0.08
VermontAE0.160.1678.7978.790.090.09
Morgan St.MEAC0.160.1636.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.160.1643.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.160.1624.2424.24-0.08-0.08
NebraskaB100.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
VCUA100.160.1654.5554.550.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.150.1555.8855.880.020.02
Saint LouisA100.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.140.1428.5728.57-0.06-0.06
AmericanPat0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
GonzagaWCC0.130.1388.2488.240.100.10
George WashingtonA100.130.1345.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
USC UpstateASun0.110.1110.7110.71-0.09-0.09
NJITASun0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
WagnerNEC0.110.1170.0070.000.040.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
NorthwesternB100.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
Stony BrookAE0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
MarylandB100.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
DukeACC0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
IonaMAAC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
MassachusettsA100.100.1039.3939.39-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.100.1082.3582.350.070.07
WisconsinB100.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1088.2488.240.080.08
Wake ForestACC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1022.2222.22-0.06-0.06
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
LipscombASun0.090.0968.9768.970.030.03
North FloridaASun0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
UMBCAE0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
OhioMAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
OregonP120.080.0864.7164.710.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0844.1244.12-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
PittsburghACC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
MissouriSEC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
RutgersB100.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0826.9226.92-0.04-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
MinnesotaB100.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
La SalleA100.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
StetsonASun0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.060.0679.4179.410.030.03
AlbanyAE0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.060.069.689.68-0.04-0.04
FIUCUSA0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
FordhamA100.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0512.5012.50-0.04-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
YaleIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.053.333.33-0.05-0.05
DavidsonA100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
LSUSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.Amer0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
ClemsonACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
FurmanSC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Portland St.BSky0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0593.9493.940.040.04
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
BrownIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
LafayettePat0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
TempleAmer0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
WashingtonP120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
SamfordSC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0332.3532.35-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
NavyPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
ColgatePat0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
CornellIvy0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
KansasB120.030.0379.4179.410.010.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01