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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Georgetown

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:104.0
Current RPI:167
Expected SOS:24
Current SOS:113
Current Record:4-4
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:148
Expected OOC SOS:75



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-826.00.01%
22-929.20.05%
21-1031.70.27%
20-1139.10.76%
19-1249.82.31%
18-1359.95.57%
17-1472.310.34%
16-1585.216.25%
15-1698.519.13%
14-17113.417.80%
13-18128.113.68%
12-19144.08.03%
11-20159.83.87%
10-21177.81.42%
9-22195.60.44%
8-23202.80.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgetown.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12USC Upstate (277.8)ASunH105-60W100%0.0
11-15Maryland (99.7)B10H75-76L0%0.0
11-17Arkansas St. (68.6)SBH72-78L0%0.0
11-21Oregon (50.4)P12N61-65W100%0.0
11-22Wisconsin (29.2)B10N57-73L0%0.0
11-23Oklahoma St. (58.3)B12N97-70L0%0.0
11-27Howard (291.2)MEACH85-72W100%0.0
11-30Coppin St. (342.9)MEACH96-44W100%0.0
12-4Elon (136.0)CAAH0-084%11.8
12-10La Salle (107.7)A10N0-067%5.3
12-17Syracuse (39.6)ACCA0-018%-10.9
12-22UNC Greensboro (159.8)SCH0-084%12.1
12-28Marquette (60.1)BEA0-026%-7.7
12-31Xavier (11.9)BEH0-033%-5.2
1-4Providence (75.1)BEA0-039%-3.3
1-7Butler (14.7)BEH0-034%-4.8
1-9St. John's (167.9)BEH0-075%8.1
1-14Connecticut (143.2)AmerH0-077%8.9
1-16Providence (75.1)BEH0-060%2.9
1-22Xavier (11.9)BEA0-017%-11.4
1-25Creighton (25.4)BEH0-036%-4.3
1-28Butler (14.7)BEA0-018%-11.0
1-31DePaul (206.1)BEA0-071%6.5
2-4Seton Hall (76.8)BEH0-057%2.2
2-7Villanova (7.4)BEA0-011%-14.9
2-11Marquette (60.1)BEH0-045%-1.5
2-19Creighton (25.4)BEA0-019%-10.4
2-22DePaul (206.1)BEH0-085%12.7
2-25St. John's (167.9)BEA0-056%1.9
2-28Seton Hall (76.8)BEA0-037%-4.0
3-4Villanova (7.4)BEH0-023%-8.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgetown's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgetown's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgetown.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
GeorgetownBE28.7926.3136.8442.39-7.58-4.00
MarquetteBE0.624.1371.4363.000.271.07
VillanovaBE0.004.10100.0083.130.002.72
St. John'sBE0.004.1028.5733.90-0.00-1.32
CreightonBE0.394.10100.0076.960.392.21
ProvidenceBE0.004.0871.4356.670.000.54
XavierBE0.004.08100.0074.790.002.02
ButlerBE0.004.07100.0075.820.002.10
DePaulBE0.004.0780.0036.950.00-1.06
Seton HallBE0.004.0771.4354.640.000.38
WisconsinB106.251.7771.4372.972.680.81
HowardMEAC6.251.720.0039.63-6.25-0.36
SyracuseACC0.391.7266.6769.750.130.68
MarylandB106.251.6983.3354.994.170.17
ConnecticutAmer0.971.6933.3339.32-0.32-0.36
Oklahoma St.B126.251.6780.0055.073.750.17
La SalleA100.001.6660.0052.450.000.08
Coppin St.MEAC6.251.640.0018.87-6.25-1.02
OregonP126.251.6483.3369.034.170.62
Arkansas St.SB6.251.6183.3367.304.170.56
ElonCAA0.001.6183.3359.520.000.31
UNC GreensboroSC0.001.6166.6760.010.000.32
USC UpstateASun6.251.6140.0039.67-1.25-0.33
RutgersB100.000.2183.3344.770.00-0.02
TempleAmer0.000.1971.4363.570.000.05
UtahP120.390.1975.0061.040.200.04
Ohio St.B100.000.1985.7172.660.000.08
MinnesotaB100.000.1885.7165.670.000.06
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1685.7180.960.000.10
MichiganB100.620.1671.4366.530.270.05
NorthwesternB100.000.1671.4366.220.000.05
VirginiaACC0.000.16100.0082.550.000.10
Wake ForestACC0.000.1671.4352.370.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.520.1462.5056.500.130.02
DelawareCAA0.000.1440.0040.65-0.00-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1416.6731.91-0.00-0.05
BuffaloMAC0.000.1340.0050.91-0.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.910.1314.2929.15-0.65-0.06
IowaB100.000.1342.8644.33-0.00-0.02
BaylorB120.450.13100.0074.460.450.06
IndianaB100.000.1383.3375.060.000.07
PittsburghACC0.450.1385.7155.550.320.01
North FloridaASun0.000.1114.2931.71-0.00-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.110.0024.32-0.00-0.06
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1116.6718.96-0.00-0.07
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.110.0023.46-0.00-0.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.110.0027.77-0.00-0.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.110.0038.35-0.00-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.450.1150.0061.810.000.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1116.6736.35-0.00-0.03
FordhamA100.000.1157.1443.680.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.1183.3358.080.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.1185.7159.740.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.1171.4370.330.000.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1150.0046.780.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.1183.3374.620.000.05
VCUA100.000.1185.7178.150.000.06
CaliforniaP120.000.1183.3363.610.000.03
StanfordP120.000.1175.0059.100.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1157.1448.860.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.450.1116.6735.65-0.30-0.03
LehighPat0.450.1133.3367.01-0.150.04
NebraskaB100.000.1150.0043.610.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.1166.6753.460.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.1171.4359.850.000.02
VermontAE0.000.1162.5071.630.000.05
Michigan St.B100.000.1050.0061.590.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.1062.5043.960.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.1071.4374.450.000.05
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1050.0027.250.00-0.05
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1040.0057.49-0.000.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0950.0071.330.000.04
The CitadelSC0.000.0940.0027.05-0.00-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.520.0950.0064.840.000.03
MercerSC0.000.0950.0053.050.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.520.0866.6751.090.170.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0857.1447.320.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.450.0866.6769.810.150.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.0866.6756.020.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0871.4356.050.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0842.8636.82-0.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.080.0034.18-0.00-0.03
HofstraCAA0.390.0857.1440.550.06-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.080.0034.23-0.00-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0816.6737.09-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0866.6775.370.000.04
NortheasternCAA0.000.0857.1448.240.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0866.6732.240.00-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.080.0024.19-0.00-0.04
TowsonCAA0.450.0850.0054.490.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.0883.3369.840.000.03
BucknellPat0.000.0875.0067.660.000.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.390.0828.5739.44-0.17-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0842.8642.47-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0850.0050.290.000.00
IUPUISum0.620.0828.5747.72-0.27-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0820.0032.60-0.00-0.03
ArizonaP120.000.0885.7170.990.000.03
Arizona St.P120.000.0857.1436.050.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0860.0039.610.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.450.0885.7155.890.320.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.450.0857.1440.590.06-0.02
TCUB120.000.08100.0059.480.000.02
Washington St.P120.000.0850.0036.820.00-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0866.6765.810.000.03
PennIvy0.000.0840.0057.97-0.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0814.2926.81-0.00-0.04
WagnerNEC0.000.0833.3353.85-0.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.390.080.0017.30-0.39-0.05
IllinoisB100.000.0857.1442.660.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0871.4350.570.000.00
OklahomaB120.000.0883.3351.920.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.08100.0080.780.000.05
North CarolinaACC0.910.0885.7180.010.650.05
Notre DameACC0.000.08100.0075.010.000.04
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0657.1459.480.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0628.5730.29-0.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.000.0614.2933.07-0.00-0.02
NJITASun0.000.0642.8650.32-0.000.00
StetsonASun0.000.0628.5728.26-0.00-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0633.3327.13-0.00-0.03
AuburnSEC0.520.0683.3355.200.350.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0683.3380.700.000.04
FurmanSC0.000.0620.0049.38-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.000.0657.1455.810.000.01
VMISC0.000.060.0021.15-0.00-0.03
WoffordSC0.000.060.0033.58-0.00-0.02
CampbellBSth0.520.0625.0033.54-0.26-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.0620.0041.31-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0675.0047.510.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0657.1444.160.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0683.3376.370.000.03
James MadisonCAA0.000.060.0028.15-0.00-0.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0633.3326.75-0.00-0.03
SMUAmer0.000.0657.1469.300.000.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0683.3377.170.000.03
William & MaryCAA0.000.0640.0055.44-0.000.01
RichmondA100.450.0557.1448.600.06-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0560.0052.760.000.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0560.0039.200.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.840.0585.7174.430.600.03
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0550.0053.530.000.00
DukeACC0.000.0587.5078.680.000.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0520.0036.00-0.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.890.0533.3345.58-0.30-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0540.0037.65-0.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.050.0021.30-0.00-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0520.0034.22-0.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0587.5075.320.000.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0566.6754.380.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0550.0050.940.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.050.0038.51-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0533.3346.81-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0571.4368.970.000.02
KansasB120.000.0585.7176.170.000.03
LamarSlnd0.000.0560.0043.970.00-0.01
Little RockSB0.000.0560.0057.900.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0525.0024.66-0.00-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0566.6761.340.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0533.3340.49-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0533.3333.15-0.00-0.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0571.4346.010.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0575.0064.960.000.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0516.6740.71-0.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.050.0019.30-0.00-0.03
Oregon St.P120.000.0528.5723.76-0.00-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0516.6734.31-0.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0525.0039.28-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0583.3361.150.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0550.0038.430.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0540.0043.86-0.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.0550.0036.240.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0585.7163.780.000.01
TroySB0.000.0533.3332.23-0.00-0.02
UCLAP120.000.05100.0083.550.000.04
USCP120.000.05100.0075.380.000.03
West VirginiaB120.000.0583.3380.550.000.03
WyomingMWC0.000.0560.0048.590.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.840.0525.0034.47-0.42-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.0542.8640.94-0.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0550.0042.420.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0516.6743.29-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0566.6751.460.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0566.6739.720.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0528.5734.18-0.00-0.02
LafayettePat0.000.0533.3331.87-0.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0583.3357.990.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0585.7175.950.000.03
MaineAE0.000.0516.6725.61-0.00-0.03
MissouriSEC0.000.0550.0045.920.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.000.0550.0057.480.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0516.6729.36-0.00-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0516.6736.45-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.520.0325.0038.72-0.26-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.0350.0051.260.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0340.0050.71-0.000.00
NavyPat0.000.0328.5743.62-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.390.0350.0052.330.000.00
BYUWCC0.390.0371.4368.660.170.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0333.3335.92-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0383.3368.880.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0366.6772.440.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.0337.5034.65-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0316.6733.69-0.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.620.0320.0048.38-0.38-0.00
George MasonA100.000.0357.1442.940.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.390.0350.0056.260.000.00
HarvardIvy0.000.030.0043.04-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3345.60-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0312.5048.98-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.30-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0333.3336.31-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6770.740.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0357.1467.020.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0383.3362.840.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0024.25-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.450.0350.0058.980.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.450.0316.6730.27-0.30-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0350.0045.410.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0360.0067.410.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0314.2947.44-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.520.0325.0030.93-0.26-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.450.0316.6733.82-0.30-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.320.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.03100.0069.770.000.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0350.0043.310.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0371.4349.590.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0357.1464.940.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.0357.1452.630.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0371.4386.030.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.0328.5730.63-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0055.850.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0385.7162.410.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0333.3348.71-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0342.8647.69-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0314.2929.81-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0371.4365.740.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0371.4371.570.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.390.0316.6732.62-0.26-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.920.000.01