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Through games of Dec 17, 2014.


Georgetown

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:47.5
Current RPI:83
Expected SOS:6
Current SOS:49
Current Record:6-3
Expected Record:17-12
Current Conf Record:0-1
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:6-2
Expected OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC RPI:53
Expected OOC SOS:29



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-45.00.01%
24-57.60.05%
23-610.40.27%
22-713.61.19%
21-816.93.44%
20-921.67.44%
19-1027.713.79%
18-1135.518.75%
17-1245.819.35%
16-1358.216.04%
15-1472.110.26%
14-1587.35.70%
13-16102.42.59%
12-17119.80.83%
11-18137.50.24%
10-19157.00.03%
9-20168.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgetown.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15St. Francis NY (269.4)NECH83-62W100%0.0
11-18Texas A&M Corpus Chris (322.4)SlndH78-62W100%0.0
11-22Robert Morris (271.2)NECH80-66W100%0.0
11-26Florida (39.8)SECN66-65W100%0.0
11-27Wisconsin (5.7)B10N65-68L0%0.0
11-28Butler (25.7)BEN58-64L0%0.0
12-7Towson (195.8)CAAH78-46W100%0.0
12-10Kansas (7.5)B12H70-75L0%0.0
12-13Radford (196.0)BSthH76-49W100%0.0
12-20Charlotte (75.0)CUSAH0-077%8.7
12-27Indiana (79.7)B10N0-058%2.4
12-31Xavier (21.6)BEA0-026%-7.7
1-3Creighton (114.9)BEH0-081%10.3
1-6Marquette (100.6)BEH0-081%10.2
1-10Providence (82.2)BEA0-049%-0.3
1-13DePaul (169.7)BEA0-066%4.7
1-17Butler (25.7)BEH0-053%0.8
1-19Villanova (16.6)BEH0-047%-0.8
1-24Marquette (100.6)BEA0-055%1.4
1-27Xavier (21.6)BEH0-054%1.1
1-31Creighton (114.9)BEA0-055%1.5
2-4Providence (82.2)BEH0-076%8.5
2-7Villanova (16.6)BEA0-021%-9.6
2-10Seton Hall (46.8)BEA0-040%-3.1
2-17St. John's (44.7)BEH0-066%4.8
2-21DePaul (169.7)BEH0-087%13.5
2-28St. John's (44.7)BEA0-037%-4.0
3-3Butler (25.7)BEA0-025%-8.0
3-7Seton Hall (46.8)BEH0-069%5.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgetown's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgetown's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgetown.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
GeorgetownBE27.7126.4554.0555.162.252.73
ButlerBE5.566.1177.7872.293.092.72
MarquetteBE0.254.4455.5648.730.03-0.11
CreightonBE0.004.4172.7352.950.000.26
ProvidenceBE0.004.4172.7353.960.000.35
VillanovaBE0.004.41100.0083.440.002.95
XavierBE0.004.4180.0071.750.001.92
Seton HallBE0.004.4188.8964.800.001.30
St. John'sBE0.004.4187.5065.650.001.38
DePaulBE0.004.4066.6740.110.00-0.87
IndianaB100.001.8480.0057.990.000.29
WisconsinB105.561.8190.0088.044.441.38
Robert MorrisNEC5.561.7833.3341.12-1.85-0.32
St. Francis NYNEC5.561.7825.0042.17-2.78-0.28
RadfordBSth5.901.7557.1458.010.840.28
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd5.901.7528.5729.77-2.53-0.71
FloridaSEC5.861.7566.6767.031.950.60
KansasB125.831.7587.5068.534.380.65
CharlotteCUSA0.001.7255.5667.080.000.59
TowsonCAA5.561.7275.0053.082.780.11
OklahomaB120.530.2277.7867.330.290.08
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.2028.5741.30-0.00-0.04
NJITind0.310.2036.3640.81-0.08-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.590.2050.0046.160.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.1725.0040.49-0.00-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1737.5038.03-0.00-0.04
RutgersB100.310.1760.0034.930.06-0.05
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1740.0049.99-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.310.1772.7373.120.140.08
NorthwesternB100.280.1760.0040.460.06-0.03
George WashingtonA100.000.1466.6766.690.000.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.310.1422.2231.12-0.17-0.05
DelawareCAA0.000.140.008.74-0.00-0.12
MinnesotaB100.000.1477.7864.890.000.04
Ohio St.B100.000.1490.0084.620.000.10
MaineAE0.280.1411.1121.17-0.22-0.08
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1462.5066.710.000.05
ChattanoogaSC0.810.1444.4451.18-0.090.00
North CarolinaACC0.830.1470.0071.470.330.06
KentuckySEC0.310.14100.0094.670.310.12
Miami FLACC0.280.1490.0075.760.220.07
NebraskaB100.000.1466.6743.830.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1237.5050.07-0.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.1266.6777.710.000.06
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1266.6764.900.000.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.120.0012.02-0.00-0.09
LehighPat0.000.1242.8652.31-0.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.1128.5747.24-0.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1150.0058.660.000.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1150.0062.870.000.03
WagnerNEC0.000.1114.2933.80-0.00-0.04
La SalleA100.310.1150.0049.770.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.1171.4357.420.000.02
SyracuseACC0.000.1166.6757.600.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.310.1166.6755.660.100.01
TempleAmer0.310.1160.0053.790.060.01
IllinoisB100.000.1172.7365.950.000.04
MichiganB100.000.1155.5642.690.00-0.02
MississippiSEC0.000.1166.6752.510.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.1142.8636.42-0.00-0.03
Penn St.B100.000.1190.9154.060.000.01
LibertyBSth0.310.0925.0035.05-0.15-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.000.090.0038.50-0.00-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0914.2945.52-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.350.0970.0060.810.140.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.250.0933.3334.56-0.08-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.090.0017.71-0.00-0.06
TCUB120.350.09100.0066.280.350.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.310.0920.0037.19-0.19-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0950.0044.640.00-0.01
DukeACC0.250.09100.0087.440.250.06
ElonCAA0.000.0937.5048.14-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0962.5059.460.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0977.7851.090.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.280.0957.1456.560.040.01
NavyPat0.000.0820.0021.41-0.00-0.05
AuburnSEC0.000.0844.4435.62-0.00-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0860.0062.430.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0850.0037.400.00-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.280.0833.3332.85-0.09-0.03
IowaB100.000.0872.7362.590.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.280.0836.3633.75-0.08-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.280.0833.3327.49-0.09-0.04
MarylandB100.000.0890.9167.700.000.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0844.4444.99-0.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0844.4431.65-0.00-0.03
PurdueB100.000.0872.7363.690.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.310.0862.5073.580.080.04
UABCUSA0.530.0833.3338.24-0.18-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0866.6772.280.000.04
YaleIvy0.280.0870.0064.820.110.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0616.6719.82-0.00-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0642.8650.31-0.000.00
DenverSum0.690.0650.0053.980.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.0662.5056.250.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0620.0038.66-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0675.0074.350.000.03
LongwoodBSth0.000.0620.0026.68-0.00-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.008.71-0.00-0.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0074.090.000.03
WinthropBSth0.000.0628.5747.18-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.620.0633.3332.03-0.21-0.02
ColoradoP120.000.0666.6757.580.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0620.0020.14-0.00-0.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0618.1821.69-0.00-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0650.0033.280.00-0.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0675.0049.720.00-0.00
StanfordP120.000.0675.0058.750.000.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0614.2934.33-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.350.0610.0018.04-0.28-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.250.060.0019.58-0.25-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.350.060.0023.23-0.35-0.03
UTSACUSA0.350.0642.8637.04-0.05-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0032.05-0.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0660.0054.270.000.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0625.0037.61-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0628.5728.28-0.00-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.0690.0091.070.000.05
HofstraCAA0.000.0677.7878.200.000.03
MercerSC0.000.0637.5041.84-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.310.0644.4456.70-0.030.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0644.4455.33-0.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0612.5024.75-0.00-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0614.2931.11-0.00-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.0625.0032.64-0.00-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0666.6757.570.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0636.3647.27-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0650.0048.630.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0687.5054.920.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0650.0053.700.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0687.5085.210.000.04
BuffaloMAC0.280.0675.0069.340.140.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0650.0052.290.000.00
LafayettePat0.280.0675.0069.390.140.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.560.0633.3345.26-0.19-0.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0633.3348.85-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.000.0690.0073.960.000.03
BinghamtonAE0.000.060.0012.01-0.00-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0666.6741.940.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0640.0033.85-0.00-0.02
BucknellPat0.000.0640.0036.15-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0677.7869.420.000.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0633.3339.12-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0675.0071.470.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0688.8964.130.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.0620.0026.18-0.00-0.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0660.0037.340.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0677.7862.380.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0625.0038.24-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0641.6744.37-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0660.0055.530.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0655.5661.640.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0644.4470.22-0.000.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0640.0050.48-0.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0690.9171.750.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0688.8963.230.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0688.8981.120.000.03
PennIvy0.000.0637.5032.89-0.00-0.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0616.6725.04-0.00-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0655.5640.200.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0654.5557.610.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0662.5064.360.000.02
South DakotaSum0.000.0620.0039.57-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0637.5055.05-0.000.01
TexasB120.000.0690.0081.760.000.04
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0677.7865.350.000.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0637.5041.33-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.280.0611.1144.96-0.22-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0688.8955.730.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0056.680.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0675.0060.600.000.01
VCUA100.000.0670.0071.520.000.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0690.0066.760.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0655.5648.830.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0336.3638.88-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0320.0028.69-0.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0325.0044.80-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0366.6770.610.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0355.5648.590.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.350.0330.0044.01-0.14-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0325.0048.84-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0037.61-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.350.0350.0057.040.000.00
Saint LouisA100.350.0360.0034.010.07-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0337.5051.47-0.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0311.1143.93-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.350.0355.5638.100.04-0.01
ArmyPat0.310.0377.7868.810.170.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.310.0320.0034.02-0.19-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0366.6745.400.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0362.5065.190.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.310.030.0014.70-0.31-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.310.0340.0046.88-0.06-0.00
DuquesneA100.280.0328.5731.25-0.12-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.310.0350.0056.370.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.310.030.0016.94-0.31-0.02
ToledoMAC0.280.0360.0059.520.060.01
UMBCAE0.310.0310.0021.05-0.25-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.280.0345.4544.47-0.03-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0342.8632.44-0.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0377.7871.830.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.250.0375.0068.510.130.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0390.0066.470.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0357.1456.210.000.00
DavidsonA100.000.0387.5077.040.000.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6776.500.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0350.0054.660.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0336.3644.37-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.250.0375.0078.710.130.02
JacksonvilleASun0.280.0310.0018.36-0.22-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0371.4361.390.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0370.0066.610.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0085.210.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0350.0039.320.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.250.0325.0033.13-0.13-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6752.270.000.00
RiderMAAC0.310.0345.4552.00-0.030.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0318.1827.98-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0370.0071.340.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0350.0032.540.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.310.0337.5064.54-0.080.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0322.2237.53-0.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0050.770.000.00
UtahP120.310.0377.7879.670.170.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0350.0038.030.00-0.01