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Through games of Nov 25, 2014.


Georgetown

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:63.9
Current RPI:73
Expected SOS:7
Current SOS:214
Current Record:3-0
Expected Record:15-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:3-0
Expected OOC Record:7-2
Expected OOC RPI:55
Expected OOC SOS:30



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-43.80.05%
22-57.20.23%
21-610.00.91%
20-715.22.55%
19-822.35.01%
18-930.59.71%
17-1040.114.08%
16-1153.318.07%
15-1267.716.42%
14-1383.514.85%
13-1499.89.26%
12-15117.45.33%
11-16134.22.32%
10-17151.40.98%
9-18174.60.18%
8-19189.00.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgetown.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15St. Francis NY (241.7)NECH83-62W100%0.0
11-18Texas A&M Corpus Chris (242.0)SlndH78-62W100%0.0
11-22Robert Morris (258.1)NECH80-66W100%0.0
11-26Florida (23.1)SECN0-028%-7.2
12-7Towson (153.7)CAAH0-084%12.2
12-10Kansas (25.5)B12H0-048%-0.7
12-13Radford (204.8)BSthH0-089%15.0
12-20Charlotte (70.3)CUSAH0-065%4.5
12-27Indiana (88.9)B10N0-048%-0.7
12-31Xavier (11.8)BEA0-017%-11.3
1-3Creighton (78.1)BEH0-063%3.9
1-6Marquette (172.6)BEH0-080%10.1
1-10Providence (27.4)BEA0-027%-7.5
1-13DePaul (179.8)BEA0-065%4.5
1-17Butler (85.5)BEH0-063%3.9
1-19Villanova (25.3)BEH0-041%-2.7
1-24Marquette (172.6)BEA0-060%3.0
1-27Xavier (11.8)BEH0-037%-4.1
1-31Creighton (78.1)BEA0-039%-3.3
2-4Providence (27.4)BEH0-049%-0.3
2-7Villanova (25.3)BEA0-021%-9.8
2-10Seton Hall (42.1)BEA0-032%-5.5
2-17St. John's (108.5)BEH0-068%5.7
2-21DePaul (179.8)BEH0-084%11.7
2-28St. John's (108.5)BEA0-045%-1.5
3-3Butler (85.5)BEA0-039%-3.3
3-7Seton Hall (42.1)BEH0-056%1.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgetown's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgetown's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgetown.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
GeorgetownBE31.9426.42100.0052.3631.941.25
ButlerBE0.004.73100.0059.500.000.90
ProvidenceBE0.004.71100.0069.560.001.84
VillanovaBE0.004.71100.0078.630.002.70
CreightonBE0.004.71100.0061.380.001.07
Seton HallBE0.004.71100.0066.300.001.53
DePaulBE0.004.70100.0036.990.00-1.22
St. John'sBE0.004.70100.0052.670.000.25
XavierBE0.004.70100.0079.870.002.81
MarquetteBE0.004.7050.0038.230.00-1.11
IndianaB100.001.9280.0058.270.000.32
Robert MorrisNEC16.671.9233.3345.08-5.56-0.19
St. Francis NYNEC16.671.920.0052.09-16.670.08
FloridaSEC0.001.8866.6771.520.000.81
KansasB120.001.8866.6761.100.000.42
CharlotteCUSA0.001.8560.0069.350.000.72
RadfordBSth0.001.8533.3353.91-0.000.14
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd16.671.8550.0051.910.000.07
TowsonCAA0.001.8580.0059.470.000.35
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.2233.3337.42-0.00-0.06
NJITind0.000.2220.0028.08-0.00-0.10
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.190.0044.90-0.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1933.3340.46-0.00-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.160.0030.42-0.00-0.06
KentuckySEC0.000.16100.0089.550.000.12
George WashingtonA100.000.1666.6772.650.000.07
DelawareCAA0.000.150.0018.08-0.00-0.10
RutgersB102.080.1550.0024.400.00-0.08
Miami FLACC0.000.15100.0081.280.000.09
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.130.0067.43-0.000.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1340.0058.90-0.000.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1366.6741.550.00-0.02
BryantNEC0.000.1350.0055.150.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1325.0052.70-0.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1333.3333.44-0.00-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1325.0044.79-0.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.130.0043.63-0.00-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.1380.0058.990.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.13100.0074.680.000.06
Chicago St.WAC0.000.130.0019.97-0.00-0.08
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1350.0065.470.000.04
MaineAE0.000.130.0017.58-0.00-0.08
MississippiSEC0.000.1375.0052.730.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.1366.6756.850.000.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.13100.0071.500.000.05
LehighPat0.000.120.0035.78-0.00-0.04
SyracuseACC0.000.1280.0067.890.000.04
TempleAmer0.000.1260.0049.930.00-0.00
La SalleA102.080.12100.0056.942.080.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.1266.6739.910.00-0.02
LibertyBSth0.000.1025.0029.87-0.00-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.000.100.0036.60-0.00-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1033.3350.48-0.000.00
TCUB120.000.10100.0057.870.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.100.0039.00-0.00-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.100.0023.12-0.00-0.05
James MadisonCAA0.000.1075.0047.770.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.10100.0049.350.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.10100.0084.260.000.07
AuburnSEC0.000.1050.0035.490.00-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.000.100.0046.09-0.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.1040.0036.72-0.00-0.03
North CarolinaACC2.080.10100.0069.872.080.04
TennesseeSEC0.000.1050.0043.100.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0966.6759.490.000.02
NorthwesternB100.000.09100.0043.950.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0975.0055.820.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0975.0056.430.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0940.0039.52-0.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.09100.0060.980.000.02
YaleIvy0.000.0975.0065.600.000.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0940.0052.47-0.000.00
ElonCAA0.000.0950.0043.080.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0975.0053.250.000.01
NavyPat0.000.0920.0031.41-0.00-0.03
IllinoisB100.000.09100.0065.710.000.03
MichiganB100.000.0975.0066.400.000.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.070.0031.74-0.00-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0766.6754.260.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0766.6766.590.000.02
High PointBSth0.000.0775.0056.990.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.070.0025.45-0.00-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.07100.0053.250.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0725.0020.71-0.00-0.04
PresbyterianBSth0.000.070.0022.61-0.00-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0750.0065.510.000.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0733.3354.56-0.000.01
BradleyMVC4.860.0750.0030.030.00-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.070.0032.72-0.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0760.0054.250.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0750.0049.860.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.070.0044.87-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0625.0037.60-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0017.79-0.00-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0027.32-0.00-0.03
UTSACUSA0.000.0633.3328.79-0.00-0.03
BaylorB120.000.06100.0070.500.000.03
BelmontOVC0.000.0675.0071.930.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0059.140.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.0675.0059.500.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0625.0027.00-0.00-0.03
DukeACC0.000.06100.0084.950.000.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.06100.0079.080.000.04
FordhamA100.000.060.0026.74-0.00-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0620.0031.41-0.00-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0675.0044.920.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0675.0063.470.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.0640.0031.23-0.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0660.0057.210.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0620.0026.30-0.00-0.03
LafayettePat2.080.0675.0065.571.040.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0640.0028.76-0.00-0.03
LSUSEC0.000.0660.0056.190.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0625.0037.50-0.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0633.3368.48-0.000.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0633.3329.06-0.00-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0620.0050.95-0.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0044.550.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0055.110.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0666.6744.530.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0675.0050.700.000.00
StanfordP120.000.0680.0070.420.000.03
TexasB120.000.06100.0080.120.000.04
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0675.0067.070.000.02
Texas TechB120.000.0675.0045.460.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0666.6738.430.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.06100.0052.850.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0070.280.000.03
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0650.0053.310.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.060.0038.35-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0640.0050.32-0.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0038.95-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0620.0035.41-0.00-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.060.0034.82-0.00-0.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0660.0066.760.000.02
MercerSC0.000.0633.3353.13-0.000.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0625.0043.34-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0064.97-0.000.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.06100.0072.230.000.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0620.0042.26-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.060.0038.43-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0675.0054.260.000.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.06100.0030.140.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0675.0059.380.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0666.6747.140.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.06100.0083.950.000.04
AlbanyAE0.000.0633.3361.54-0.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.060.0024.20-0.00-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0640.0038.71-0.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0620.0038.78-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0633.3336.66-0.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0666.6749.780.00-0.00
MarylandB100.000.06100.0072.100.000.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0614.2929.93-0.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0680.0060.610.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0675.0072.430.000.03
Notre DameACC0.000.0680.0071.450.000.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0680.0074.570.000.03
PennIvy0.000.060.0025.91-0.00-0.03
Penn St.B100.000.0683.3348.030.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.0680.0067.040.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0633.3330.02-0.00-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0660.0037.460.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0650.0066.080.000.02
VCUA100.000.0680.0073.820.000.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0625.0040.73-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0325.0033.31-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0340.0044.83-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0031.79-0.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.030.0066.25-0.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0333.3336.17-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0325.0046.48-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0046.74-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0031.72-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0047.30-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.000.0366.6766.740.000.01
Saint LouisA102.780.0375.0047.411.39-0.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0333.3359.03-0.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.030.0028.11-0.00-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0350.0031.510.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0081.020.000.02
ArmyPat2.080.03100.0069.382.080.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0375.0064.660.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0052.120.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0375.0064.500.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0375.0070.310.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0333.3346.11-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.03100.0055.470.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.030.0024.22-0.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0375.0064.740.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0350.0064.410.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0047.350.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0325.0047.03-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0047.880.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0340.0060.63-0.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0057.70-0.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0050.770.000.00
UtahP120.000.0366.6772.710.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0360.0047.180.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0340.0038.29-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0030.80-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.54-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.030.0028.76-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0350.0025.530.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0350.0053.610.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0375.0073.980.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0350.0043.100.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0340.0047.31-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.000.0360.0064.290.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0380.0070.940.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0079.500.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0366.6749.540.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0350.0050.280.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0340.0033.07-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0340.0066.55-0.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0366.6750.750.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.0333.3344.17-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.030.0028.01-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0070.870.000.01