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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.

Georgetown

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:11.0
Current RPI:11
Expected SOS:16
Current SOS:16
Current Record:25-6
Expected Record:25-6
Current Conf Record:15-5
Expected Conf Record:15-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:10-1
Expected OOC Record:10-1
Expected OOC RPI:33
Expected OOC SOS:164


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-611.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgetown.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Duquesne (229.0)A10H61-55W100%0.0
11-14Liberty (288.0)BSthH68-59W100%0.0
11-19UCLA (26.0)P12N78-70W100%0.0
11-20Indiana (8.0)B10N72-82L0%0.0
11-24Mount St. Mary's (121.0)NECH72-50W100%0.0
11-30Tennessee (59.0)SECH37-36W100%0.0
12-4Texas (116.0)B12N64-41W100%0.0
12-8Towson (157.0)CAAH46-40W100%0.0
12-10Longwood (332.0)BSthH89-53W100%0.0
12-15Western Carolina (243.0)SCH81-68W100%0.0
12-22American (278.0)PatH65-48W100%0.0
1-5Marquette (13.0)BEA49-48L0%0.0
1-8Pittsburgh (44.0)BEH45-73L0%0.0
1-12St. John's (96.0)BEA51-67W100%0.0
1-16Providence (91.0)BEH74-65W100%0.0
1-19South Florida (156.0)BEA61-58L0%0.0
1-21Notre Dame (35.0)BEA47-63W100%0.0
1-26Louisville (3.0)BEH53-51W100%0.0
1-30Seton Hall (138.0)BEH74-52W100%0.0
2-2St. John's (96.0)BEH68-56W100%0.0
2-9Rutgers (109.0)BEA63-69W100%0.0
2-11Marquette (13.0)BEH63-55W100%0.0
2-15Cincinnati (50.0)BEA55-62W100%0.0
2-20DePaul (204.0)BEH90-66W100%0.0
2-23Syracuse (14.0)BEA46-57W100%0.0
2-27Connecticut (49.0)BEA78-79W100%0.0
3-2Rutgers (109.0)BEH64-51W100%0.0
3-6Villanova (52.0)BEA67-57L0%0.0
3-9Syracuse (14.0)BEH61-39W100%0.0
3-14Cincinnati (50.0)BEN62-43W100%0.0
3-15Syracuse (14.0)BEN55-58L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgetown's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgetown's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgetown.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
GeorgetownBE26.1326.1380.1580.1515.7515.75
SyracuseBE5.425.4278.1278.123.053.05
RutgersBE3.853.8551.7251.720.130.13
CincinnatiBE3.833.8370.9770.971.611.61
St. John'sBE3.803.8055.1755.170.390.39
MarquetteBE3.773.7775.8675.861.951.95
Notre DameBE2.372.3775.7675.761.221.22
Seton HallBE2.362.3646.8846.88-0.15-0.15
PittsburghBE2.362.3674.1974.191.141.14
LouisvilleBE2.352.3587.8887.881.781.78
VillanovaBE2.312.3158.0658.060.370.37
ProvidenceBE2.282.2856.6756.670.300.30
DePaulBE2.272.2735.4835.48-0.66-0.66
South FloridaBE2.242.2436.6736.67-0.60-0.60
ConnecticutBE2.212.2168.9768.970.840.84
LibertyBSth1.691.6938.7138.71-0.38-0.38
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.691.6958.0658.060.270.27
LongwoodBSth1.691.6920.0020.00-1.01-1.01
Western CarolinaSC1.661.6640.0040.00-0.33-0.33
TennesseeSEC1.641.6464.5264.520.480.48
AmericanPat1.641.6434.4834.48-0.51-0.51
DuquesneA101.641.6427.5927.59-0.73-0.73
IndianaB101.641.6481.2581.251.021.02
UCLAP121.641.6475.7675.760.840.84
TexasB121.641.6451.6151.610.050.05
TowsonCAA1.611.6158.6258.620.280.28
NC AshevilleBSth0.210.2144.8344.83-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.200.2034.3834.38-0.06-0.06
MonmouthNEC0.170.1732.2632.26-0.06-0.06
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.160.1623.3323.33-0.08-0.08
HowardMEAC0.160.1620.6920.69-0.09-0.09
College of CharlestonSC0.150.1572.7372.730.070.07
Mississippi St.SEC0.150.1531.2531.25-0.06-0.06
CampbellBSth0.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
TempleA100.150.1571.8871.880.060.06
DetroitHorz0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
RadfordBSth0.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.137.147.14-0.11-0.11
Virginia Military InstBSth0.130.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.130.1348.0048.00-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.130.1353.5753.570.010.01
BryantNEC0.130.1363.3363.330.030.03
Southern CaliforniaP120.120.1243.7543.75-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.120.1259.2659.260.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
WagnerNEC0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.100.1058.8258.820.020.02
DelawareCAA0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
NC GreensboroSC0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
ButlerA100.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
BaylorB120.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.100.1042.3142.31-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Louisiana St.SEC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.1010.0010.00-0.08-0.08
Michigan St.B100.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
XavierA100.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
WisconsinB100.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Long IslandNEC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Iowa St.B120.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
WashingtonP120.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
KentuckySEC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
PurdueB100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
OregonP120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
CanisiusMAAC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
ArmyPat0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
George MasonCAA0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Georgia St.CAA0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
NavyPat0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
QuinnipiacNEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
MassachusettsA100.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
West VirginiaB120.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
IonaMAAC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
St. Peter'sMAAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
MinnesotaB100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
SamfordSC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
Texas ChristianB120.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckySB0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
IllinoisB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0752.9452.940.000.00
MissouriSEC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
ArizonaP120.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
DrexelCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
LafayettePat0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
NC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
CornellIvy0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Virginia CommonwealthA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Loyola MDMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
RichmondA100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Boston UniversityAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DavidsonSC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
ElonSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Florida AtlanticSB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
OaklandSum0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Chicago St.GWC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
MemphisCUSA0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
UC IrvineBW0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
IowaB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
StanfordP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
CharlotteA100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
New Orleansind0.030.0318.1818.18-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Old DominionCAA0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
St. LouisA100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
CreightonMVC0.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
PennsylvaniaIvy0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Southern MississippiCUSA0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Texas ArlingtonWAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Texas St.WAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Brigham YoungWCC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
DukeACC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Florida InternationalSB0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00