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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Georgetown

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:25.0
Current RPI:25
Expected SOS:11
Current SOS:11
Current Record:21-10
Expected Record:21-10
Current Conf Record:13-8
Expected Conf Record:13-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:8-2
Expected OOC Record:8-2
Expected OOC RPI:19
Expected OOC SOS:12



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1025.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgetown.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15St. Francis NY (170.0)NECH83-62W100%0.0
11-18Texas A&M Corpus Chris (209.0)SlndH78-62W100%0.0
11-22Robert Morris (171.0)NECH80-66W100%0.0
11-26Florida (72.0)SECN66-65W100%0.0
11-27Wisconsin (4.0)B10N65-68L0%0.0
11-28Butler (31.0)BEN58-64L0%0.0
12-7Towson (281.0)CAAH78-46W100%0.0
12-10Kansas (2.0)B12H70-75L0%0.0
12-13Radford (154.0)BSthH76-49W100%0.0
12-20Charlotte (211.0)CUSAH81-78W100%0.0
12-27Indiana (61.0)B10N91-87W100%0.0
12-31Xavier (30.0)BEA70-53L0%0.0
1-3Creighton (151.0)BEH76-61W100%0.0
1-6Marquette (147.0)BEH65-59W100%0.0
1-10Providence (22.0)BEA60-57L0%0.0
1-13DePaul (197.0)BEA72-78W100%0.0
1-17Butler (31.0)BEH61-59W100%0.0
1-19Villanova (3.0)BEH78-58W100%0.0
1-24Marquette (147.0)BEA85-95W100%0.0
1-27Xavier (30.0)BEH53-66L0%0.0
1-31Creighton (151.0)BEA40-67W100%0.0
2-4Providence (22.0)BEH71-74L0%0.0
2-7Villanova (3.0)BEA69-53L0%0.0
2-10Seton Hall (97.0)BEA67-86W100%0.0
2-17St. John's (44.0)BEH79-57W100%0.0
2-21DePaul (197.0)BEH68-63W100%0.0
2-28St. John's (44.0)BEA81-70L0%0.0
3-3Butler (31.0)BEA54-60W100%0.0
3-7Seton Hall (97.0)BEH73-67W100%0.0
3-12Creighton (151.0)BEN60-55W100%0.0
3-13Xavier (30.0)BEN65-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgetown's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgetown's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgetown.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
GeorgetownBE26.5126.5164.9664.967.937.93
XavierBE5.865.8658.0658.060.950.95
ButlerBE5.835.8372.4172.412.612.61
CreightonBE5.785.7846.6746.67-0.39-0.39
VillanovaBE4.344.3496.8896.884.074.07
MarquetteBE4.294.2943.3343.33-0.57-0.57
ProvidenceBE4.274.2764.5264.521.241.24
DePaulBE4.244.2440.0040.00-0.85-0.85
Seton HallBE4.214.2155.1755.170.440.44
St. John'sBE4.214.2165.5265.521.311.31
IndianaB101.711.7162.5062.500.430.43
WisconsinB101.691.6990.9190.911.381.38
Robert MorrisNEC1.691.6959.3859.380.320.32
St. Francis NYNEC1.691.6968.7568.750.630.63
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.641.6458.6258.620.280.28
RadfordBSth1.641.6464.2964.290.470.47
KansasB121.641.6475.7675.760.840.84
FloridaSEC1.641.6450.0050.000.000.00
CharlotteCUSA1.611.6145.1645.16-0.16-0.16
TowsonCAA1.611.6136.6736.67-0.43-0.43
OklahomaB120.220.2268.7568.750.080.08
Long Beach St.BW0.190.1945.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.180.1825.0025.00-0.09-0.09
NJITind0.170.1756.0056.000.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
NorthwesternB100.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.170.1767.6567.650.060.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
RutgersB100.150.1531.2531.25-0.06-0.06
AlabamaSEC0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
KentuckySEC0.150.15100.00100.000.150.15
NebraskaB100.150.1541.9441.94-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.130.1363.6463.640.030.03
MaineAE0.130.1310.0010.00-0.10-0.10
Tennessee MartinOVC0.130.1357.1457.140.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.130.1368.9768.970.050.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.120.1286.6786.670.090.09
North CarolinaACC0.120.1268.5768.570.050.05
DelawareCAA0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
MinnesotaB100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.120.1216.1316.13-0.08-0.08
ChattanoogaSC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
Chicago St.WAC0.120.1217.2417.24-0.08-0.08
Miami FLACC0.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.120.1252.9452.940.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
BryantNEC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
MississippiSEC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
St. Francis PANEC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
WagnerNEC0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
MichiganB100.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.110.1130.7730.77-0.04-0.04
ElonCAA0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.106.906.90-0.09-0.09
SyracuseACC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
TCUB120.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
La SalleA100.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
LehighPat0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Penn St.B100.100.1052.9452.940.010.01
MarylandB100.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
UTEPCUSA0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
PurdueB100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
AuburnSEC0.100.1041.1841.18-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
IllinoisB100.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
WinthropBSth0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0872.4172.410.040.04
LibertyBSth0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
James MadisonCAA0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0827.2727.27-0.04-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
BelmontOVC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Loyola MDPat0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0775.8675.860.040.04
South DakotaSum0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
TulsaAmer0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
YaleIvy0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
IowaB100.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0765.5265.520.020.02
IUPUISum0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.070.0783.3383.330.050.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Iowa St.B120.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
High PointBSth0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.060.0628.1228.12-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0558.3358.330.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0593.9493.940.050.05
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
MercerSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
NevadaMWC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
TulaneAmer0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
BradleyMVC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
LamarSlnd0.050.0542.3142.31-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0518.7518.75-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
ColoradoP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
RiceCUSA0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
AlbanyAE0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
LSUSEC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
LafayettePat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
PennIvy0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
CampbellBSth0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
CornellIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
ArmyPat0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0244.4444.44-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
PittsburghACC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.020.0281.2581.250.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Green BayHorz0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
UNLVMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
UtahP120.020.0274.1974.190.010.01