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Through games of Feb 4, 2016.


Georgetown

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:69.4
Current RPI:73
Expected SOS:13
Current SOS:26
Current Record:13-10
Expected Record:17-14
Current Conf Record:6-4
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:115
Expected OOC SOS:36



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1026.30.03%
20-1133.20.69%
19-1242.74.76%
18-1353.316.36%
17-1464.229.42%
16-1575.028.46%
15-1686.716.06%
14-1799.83.95%
13-18114.00.26%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgetown.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Radford (162.2)BSthH80-82L0%0.0
11-17Maryland (8.3)B10A75-71L0%0.0
11-20Wisconsin (61.5)B10N71-61W100%0.0
11-22Duke (20.4)ACCN86-84L0%0.0
11-28Bryant (313.1)NECH77-47W100%0.0
12-1Maryland Eastern Shore (278.2)MEACH68-49W100%0.0
12-5Syracuse (50.0)ACCH79-72W100%0.0
12-7Brown (295.6)IvyH74-57W100%0.0
12-12UNC Wilmington (66.2)CAAH87-82W100%0.0
12-15Monmouth (42.9)MAACH68-83L0%0.0
12-19UNC Asheville (139.6)BSthH73-79L0%0.0
12-22Charlotte (231.6)CUSAA59-62W100%0.0
12-30DePaul (165.8)BEA58-70W100%0.0
1-2Marquette (119.8)BEH80-70W100%0.0
1-5Creighton (92.6)BEA79-66L0%0.0
1-9DePaul (165.8)BEH74-63W100%0.0
1-13St. John's (224.6)BEA73-93W100%0.0
1-16Villanova (4.4)BEH50-55L0%0.0
1-19Xavier (7.5)BEA72-81W100%0.0
1-23Connecticut (38.4)AmerA68-62L0%0.0
1-26Creighton (92.6)BEH74-73W100%0.0
1-30Providence (41.3)BEH69-73L0%0.0
2-2Butler (54.1)BEA87-76L0%0.0
2-6Seton Hall (52.9)BEA0-031%-5.3
2-8St. John's (224.6)BEH0-092%15.3
2-13Providence (41.3)BEA0-035%-4.2
2-17Seton Hall (52.9)BEH0-055%1.3
2-20Xavier (7.5)BEH0-036%-3.9
2-27Butler (54.1)BEH0-045%-1.3
3-1Marquette (119.8)BEA0-052%0.5
3-5Villanova (4.4)BEA0-011%-13.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgetown's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgetown's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgetown.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
GeorgetownBE26.3326.3152.2950.231.210.12
ProvidenceBE2.774.1377.2771.231.511.75
MarquetteBE2.614.1068.1858.780.950.72
St. John'sBE2.654.1028.5725.87-1.14-1.98
CreightonBE4.694.0861.9059.681.120.79
VillanovaBE2.614.0885.7184.681.862.83
ButlerBE2.764.0766.6765.710.921.28
DePaulBE4.734.0740.0037.45-0.95-1.02
Seton HallBE0.634.0772.7369.490.291.59
XavierBE2.664.0795.2488.182.413.11
SyracuseACC2.421.7769.5764.800.950.52
WisconsinB102.311.7463.6457.770.630.27
BryantNEC2.331.7227.2728.54-1.06-0.74
MarylandB102.321.7286.3681.131.691.07
RadfordBSth2.281.7050.0051.890.000.06
BrownIvy2.271.6931.2530.86-0.85-0.65
UNC AshevilleBSth2.231.6761.9064.200.530.47
ConnecticutAmer2.271.6771.4371.540.970.72
DukeACC2.271.6771.4368.900.970.63
UNC WilmingtonCAA2.231.6478.9574.011.290.79
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.221.6428.5734.05-0.95-0.52
CharlotteCUSA2.221.6438.1043.59-0.53-0.21
MonmouthMAAC2.171.6177.2779.691.190.96
RutgersB100.290.2422.7320.68-0.16-0.14
MichiganB100.240.2172.7367.970.110.08
IndianaB100.290.2182.6177.360.190.12
WagnerNEC0.140.1961.9063.360.030.05
TempleAmer0.150.1861.9058.400.030.03
CampbellBSth0.200.1730.0030.38-0.08-0.07
ElonCAA0.250.1754.5553.030.020.01
SienaMAAC0.290.1665.2266.710.090.05
CincinnatiAmer0.150.1673.9173.090.070.07
PurdueB100.100.1682.6178.230.060.09
Michigan St.B100.190.1682.6181.380.120.10
IUPUISum0.190.1641.6740.25-0.03-0.03
NebraskaB100.190.1652.1751.550.010.00
DartmouthIvy0.050.1435.2933.93-0.01-0.05
HarvardIvy0.090.1438.8942.86-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.150.1426.3227.35-0.07-0.06
NiagaraMAAC0.160.1426.0926.65-0.08-0.06
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.110.1440.0042.55-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.250.1447.8343.65-0.01-0.02
NorthwesternB100.240.1366.6763.490.080.04
Florida St.ACC0.100.1368.1863.240.040.03
Miami FLACC0.190.1380.9575.610.120.07
Wake ForestACC0.140.1345.4542.13-0.01-0.02
IllinoisB100.090.1347.8344.51-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.090.1386.3680.670.070.08
RiderMAAC0.090.1339.1342.27-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.190.1390.4884.910.150.09
Boston CollegeACC0.140.1331.8226.63-0.05-0.06
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.100.1257.8957.330.020.02
LibertyBSth0.100.1231.8232.90-0.04-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.150.1219.0522.38-0.09-0.06
WinthropBSth0.100.1265.0063.360.030.03
DrexelCAA0.210.1114.2918.59-0.15-0.07
YaleIvy0.220.1170.5972.600.090.05
CornellIvy0.090.1147.0643.12-0.01-0.02
DelawareCAA0.160.1122.7323.65-0.09-0.06
PennIvy0.110.1131.2532.68-0.04-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.150.1157.1457.920.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.210.1113.6413.79-0.15-0.08
Rhode IslandA100.160.1154.5555.960.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.190.1147.6249.34-0.01-0.00
MaineAE0.160.1136.3635.58-0.04-0.03
George WashingtonA100.100.1177.2771.670.050.05
South CarolinaSEC0.150.1185.7176.020.110.06
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1134.7841.60-0.03-0.02
PittsburghACC0.090.1180.0070.310.060.04
Chicago St.WAC0.150.114.557.91-0.13-0.09
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1152.3853.800.000.01
NJITASun0.100.1152.1754.520.000.01
StanfordP120.150.1152.6347.730.01-0.00
USCP120.140.1178.2673.090.080.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.1147.6247.96-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.190.1158.3354.130.030.01
IowaB100.090.1081.8279.900.060.06
Arizona St.P120.140.1052.1750.250.010.00
Georgia TechACC0.140.1054.5552.770.010.01
MassachusettsA100.140.1042.8639.88-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.090.1030.0029.47-0.04-0.04
VirginiaACC0.090.1081.8276.020.060.05
James MadisonCAA0.110.0969.5768.670.040.03
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0968.4265.480.020.03
PrincetonIvy0.110.0968.7573.150.040.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.150.0925.0029.29-0.08-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.150.0942.8647.26-0.02-0.00
High PointBSth0.100.0957.8961.470.020.02
HowardMEAC0.100.0840.0042.58-0.02-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.150.0835.0036.61-0.05-0.02
New HampshireAE0.160.0852.6351.510.010.00
TennesseeSEC0.100.0850.0048.260.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.100.0845.4541.98-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.110.0819.0521.34-0.07-0.05
SMUAmer0.060.0890.4885.540.050.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.150.084.7614.00-0.13-0.06
MissouriSEC0.100.0836.3630.98-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.0838.1047.48-0.02-0.00
UMBCAE0.100.0820.8325.00-0.06-0.04
FurmanSC0.150.0854.5553.780.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.140.0840.9139.23-0.03-0.02
VCUA100.150.0877.2776.770.080.04
Virginia TechACC0.150.0852.1747.260.01-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0841.6746.85-0.02-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.140.0815.7922.52-0.10-0.04
FairfieldMAAC0.100.0854.5553.540.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.100.0854.5561.940.010.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.0881.8277.420.060.04
DaytonA100.100.0885.7181.210.070.05
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0842.8651.32-0.010.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.0831.8235.17-0.04-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0820.8320.11-0.00-0.05
The CitadelSC0.100.0835.0031.39-0.03-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.100.0847.8350.56-0.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0881.8277.490.000.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0852.1749.340.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.140.0868.1863.710.050.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.140.0847.6257.24-0.010.01
UTSACUSA0.090.0814.2913.98-0.07-0.06
Western IllinoisSum0.140.0827.7829.23-0.06-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0661.9059.920.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0668.1865.430.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0647.8348.71-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0663.6457.320.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0670.0069.350.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.0628.5734.73-0.05-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0610.0014.87-0.00-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0621.0529.17-0.03-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0647.6252.95-0.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.0570.0068.920.040.02
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0581.8281.000.060.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.0526.0930.34-0.05-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0557.1452.310.010.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.100.0590.0086.110.080.04
AuburnSEC0.050.0542.8637.22-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.058.709.78-0.00-0.04
DrakeMVC0.100.0522.7324.84-0.05-0.03
FordhamA100.050.0557.8954.300.010.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0560.0056.080.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.055.267.23-0.09-0.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0553.3355.190.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0554.5555.310.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0550.0050.870.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0528.5728.87-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0563.6456.050.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0540.9138.03-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0530.0032.46-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0525.0029.52-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0518.1822.84-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0515.7916.40-0.03-0.04
TroySB0.000.0520.0023.76-0.00-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.0962.730.010.01
VMISC0.050.0516.6718.98-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0576.1979.640.000.03
Wright St.Horz0.050.0554.5555.190.000.01
ArmyPat0.090.0554.5555.990.010.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0526.0927.82-0.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.050.0580.9579.160.030.03
ArizonaP120.050.0578.2677.230.030.03
BelmontOVC0.050.0569.5770.030.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0543.4845.72-0.01-0.00
ClemsonACC0.090.0563.6462.330.030.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0573.9176.040.020.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0516.6720.72-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.050.0526.0926.47-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0572.7368.010.020.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0557.1457.700.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0550.0056.530.000.01
La SalleA100.050.0521.0520.90-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.050.0563.6459.440.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0545.0043.24-0.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.100.0559.0958.570.020.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.090.0538.1037.49-0.02-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0525.0028.19-0.00-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0525.0022.59-0.02-0.03
StetsonASun0.050.0525.0029.75-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.100.0533.3332.42-0.03-0.02
TulsaAmer0.050.0563.6459.930.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0555.0047.190.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0350.0046.870.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.060.0340.9139.71-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0330.0034.84-0.02-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0335.0035.36-0.02-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0385.7184.560.040.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0325.0029.91-0.02-0.01
AmericanPat0.050.0331.8232.71-0.02-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0360.0061.320.000.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0359.0955.560.010.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0326.3236.92-0.02-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0331.5833.50-0.02-0.01
WoffordSC0.050.0338.1043.38-0.01-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0322.7323.38-0.03-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0352.1747.620.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0327.2730.42-0.02-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0357.1457.530.010.00
ColgatePat0.050.0342.8643.53-0.01-0.00
DavidsonA100.050.0357.8955.420.010.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0342.8645.93-0.01-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0323.8128.31-0.03-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0336.8437.31-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0377.2776.120.030.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0357.1457.880.010.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0372.7369.690.020.01
LehighPat0.050.0330.0036.11-0.02-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0375.0072.210.020.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0361.9062.050.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0338.1041.23-0.01-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.050.0344.4446.93-0.01-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0333.3333.65-0.02-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0370.0069.090.020.01
TexasB120.050.0368.1861.760.020.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0373.6870.400.020.01
UABCUSA0.050.0381.8278.320.030.01
UCLAP120.050.0356.5253.330.010.00
UMass LowellAE0.050.0333.3332.89-0.02-0.01
UtahP120.050.0372.7368.550.020.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0347.3749.37-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0350.0050.040.000.00
WashingtonP120.050.0368.1862.170.020.01