live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Nov 21, 2014.


Georgetown

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:46.3
Current RPI:156
Expected SOS:24
Current SOS:262
Current Record:2-0
Expected Record:18-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:2-0
Expected OOC Record:7-2
Expected OOC RPI:37
Expected OOC SOS:45



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-11.00.01%
25-22.50.02%
24-34.20.19%
23-45.60.98%
22-58.72.42%
21-612.85.40%
20-718.79.32%
19-826.014.16%
18-935.817.84%
17-1047.517.18%
16-1160.814.05%
15-1277.49.81%
14-1395.55.11%
13-14113.62.22%
12-15136.70.85%
11-16148.80.29%
10-17170.50.12%
9-18201.00.01%
8-19185.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgetown.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15St. Francis NY (210.6)NECH83-62W100%0.0
11-18Texas A&M Corpus Chris (228.3)SlndH78-62W100%0.0
11-22Robert Morris (278.5)NECH0-096%21.6
11-26Florida (33.8)SECN0-040%-3.1
12-7Towson (216.7)CAAH0-093%17.8
12-10Kansas (27.4)B12H0-056%1.9
12-13Radford (225.4)BSthH0-094%18.5
12-20Charlotte (63.4)CUSAH0-072%6.9
12-27Indiana (64.5)B10N0-050%-0.0
12-31Xavier (14.9)BEA0-026%-7.7
1-3Creighton (101.0)BEH0-074%7.8
1-6Marquette (105.8)BEH0-073%7.3
1-10Providence (45.4)BEA0-039%-3.3
1-13DePaul (180.2)BEA0-070%6.3
1-17Butler (106.7)BEH0-074%7.8
1-19Villanova (53.5)BEH0-061%3.2
1-24Marquette (105.8)BEA0-050%0.1
1-27Xavier (14.9)BEH0-048%-0.5
1-31Creighton (101.0)BEA0-052%0.7
2-4Providence (45.4)BEH0-063%3.8
2-7Villanova (53.5)BEA0-037%-3.9
2-10Seton Hall (78.6)BEA0-047%-0.8
2-17St. John's (111.7)BEH0-075%8.1
2-21DePaul (180.2)BEH0-087%13.4
2-28St. John's (111.7)BEA0-053%0.9
3-3Butler (106.7)BEA0-052%0.6
3-7Seton Hall (78.6)BEH0-070%6.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgetown's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgetown's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgetown.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
GeorgetownBE43.7526.43100.0061.2643.755.95
ButlerBE0.004.75100.0055.470.000.52
ProvidenceBE0.004.73100.0063.610.001.29
CreightonBE0.004.72100.0057.180.000.68
VillanovaBE0.004.72100.0068.530.001.75
St. John'sBE0.004.72100.0053.480.000.33
XavierBE0.004.72100.0077.440.002.59
DePaulBE0.004.72100.0039.000.00-1.04
MarquetteBE0.004.7150.0055.460.000.51
Seton HallBE0.004.71100.0058.800.000.83
IndianaB100.001.92100.0064.310.000.55
Robert MorrisNEC0.001.9233.3339.68-0.00-0.40
St. Francis NYNEC25.001.920.0056.84-25.000.26
FloridaSEC0.001.8866.6766.820.000.63
KansasB120.001.8850.0060.790.000.41
CharlotteCUSA0.001.85100.0071.480.000.80
RadfordBSth0.001.8533.3346.35-0.00-0.14
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd25.001.850.0055.43-25.000.20
TowsonCAA0.001.8566.6747.190.00-0.10
NJITind0.000.2233.3328.81-0.00-0.09
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.2250.0036.810.00-0.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.190.0032.86-0.00-0.07
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.190.0043.82-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.1666.6777.370.000.09
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.160.0035.33-0.00-0.05
RutgersB100.000.1650.0036.270.00-0.04
KentuckySEC0.000.16100.0086.080.000.11
DelawareCAA0.000.160.0033.61-0.00-0.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.130.0067.54-0.000.05
MaineAE0.000.130.0016.80-0.00-0.09
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1350.0035.880.00-0.04
BryantNEC0.000.1350.0054.540.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1333.3352.91-0.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1350.0036.850.00-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.000.130.0051.62-0.000.00
WagnerNEC0.000.130.0043.90-0.00-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.13100.0055.900.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.13100.0073.590.000.06
Chicago St.WAC0.000.130.0027.18-0.00-0.06
LehighPat0.000.130.0035.69-0.00-0.04
MississippiSEC0.000.1366.6760.220.000.03
OklahomaB120.000.1350.0059.230.000.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.13100.0070.600.000.05
SyracuseACC0.000.1375.0070.210.000.05
TempleAmer0.000.1266.6760.730.000.03
La SalleA100.000.12100.0055.910.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.12100.0046.320.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.12100.0073.200.000.06
LibertyBSth0.000.1050.0041.040.00-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1050.0049.490.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.100.0034.37-0.00-0.03
TCUB120.000.10100.0054.240.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1066.6757.590.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.10100.0052.690.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.100.0037.45-0.00-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.100.0020.87-0.00-0.06
James MadisonCAA0.000.1066.6747.240.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.10100.0081.110.000.06
AuburnSEC0.000.1066.6742.560.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.100.0054.47-0.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.1066.6750.370.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.10100.0066.050.000.03
TennesseeSEC0.000.1050.0044.000.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0950.0063.730.000.03
NorthwesternB100.000.09100.0043.710.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0950.0045.610.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0925.0057.21-0.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0950.0040.300.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0950.0056.300.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.09100.0053.060.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.0950.0057.440.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.09100.0065.630.000.03
NebraskaB100.000.09100.0051.030.000.00
NavyPat0.000.090.0032.22-0.00-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.070.0029.61-0.00-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.07100.0058.280.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0750.0062.440.000.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0766.6766.420.000.02
High PointBSth0.000.07100.0058.330.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.070.0025.67-0.00-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.070.0041.53-0.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0750.0021.230.00-0.04
PresbyterianBSth0.000.070.0033.43-0.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0750.0061.070.000.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0750.0056.600.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.070.0025.34-0.00-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.070.0038.98-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.07100.0058.420.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0750.0052.770.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0750.0035.570.00-0.02
NevadaMWC0.000.0750.0052.120.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.070.0043.21-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.070.0026.04-0.00-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.000.07100.0044.620.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.07100.0084.100.000.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.070.0023.20-0.00-0.03
UTSACUSA0.000.070.0028.13-0.00-0.03
LamarSlnd0.000.060.0033.17-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0015.85-0.00-0.04
BaylorB120.000.06100.0068.940.000.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0650.0072.160.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0064.850.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.06100.0068.420.000.02
DrakeMVC0.000.060.0028.82-0.00-0.03
DukeACC0.000.06100.0086.380.000.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.06100.0071.730.000.03
FordhamA100.000.060.0034.73-0.00-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0633.3336.31-0.00-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0650.0054.580.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0650.0051.340.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.06100.0061.270.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0633.3330.78-0.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0666.6755.230.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.060.0027.11-0.00-0.03
LafayettePat0.000.0666.6762.890.000.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0666.6738.520.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0666.6756.820.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.060.0033.64-0.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0650.0072.260.000.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0650.0028.860.00-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0633.3354.24-0.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0045.530.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0053.870.000.00
Oregon St.P120.000.06100.0050.080.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0666.6748.270.00-0.00
StanfordP120.000.06100.0068.290.000.02
TexasB120.000.06100.0084.130.000.04
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0666.6764.990.000.02
Texas TechB120.000.0650.0043.560.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0650.0033.930.00-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.06100.0048.390.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0068.580.000.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.060.0034.26-0.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0650.0059.350.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0650.0055.220.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0038.27-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0633.3346.82-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.060.0034.27-0.00-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.060.0034.26-0.00-0.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0666.6763.800.000.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0666.6751.090.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0625.0029.11-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0069.29-0.000.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.06100.0069.720.000.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.06100.0077.160.000.03
PennIvy0.000.060.0025.28-0.00-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0633.3333.43-0.00-0.02
South DakotaSum0.000.060.0036.84-0.00-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.06100.0029.380.00-0.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0666.6752.000.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0650.0040.180.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.06100.0074.770.000.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0650.0043.330.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0650.0031.730.00-0.02
Penn St.B100.000.0675.0045.210.00-0.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0650.0063.960.000.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.060.0039.15-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0650.0041.690.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0633.3338.39-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.06100.0063.680.000.02
MassachusettsA100.000.06100.0063.880.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0666.6771.300.000.03
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0069.430.000.02
PurdueB100.000.06100.0060.570.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0633.3363.09-0.000.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.030.0038.57-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0333.3344.98-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0030.14-0.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.030.0062.16-0.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0340.0041.64-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0034.15-0.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0045.64-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0035.31-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0053.20-0.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0350.0062.660.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.03100.0066.070.000.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0333.3358.87-0.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.030.0041.45-0.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.03100.0041.370.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0074.210.000.02
ArmyPat6.250.03100.0057.816.250.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0366.6759.850.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0333.3344.93-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0350.0060.970.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.03100.0075.400.000.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0333.3343.51-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.030.0051.78-0.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.030.0024.25-0.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.03100.0067.860.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0350.0062.510.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0036.560.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0048.22-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0366.6751.360.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0333.3363.82-0.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0054.32-0.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0366.6746.160.00-0.00
UtahP120.000.0366.6770.360.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0350.0041.490.00-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.030.0036.14-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.030.0015.68-0.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.030.0046.41-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0031.68-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.03100.0048.380.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.000.03100.0043.610.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0366.6768.330.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.030.0048.03-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0350.0052.770.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.030.0043.40-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.000.030.0035.60-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0069.630.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.03100.0061.420.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0350.0049.560.00-0.00
IowaB100.000.0350.0067.840.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0079.370.000.02
MichiganB100.000.03100.0066.870.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6751.250.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0333.3336.04-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0333.3367.72-0.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.030.0028.95-0.00-0.01