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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Georgetown

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:69.0
Current RPI:69
Expected SOS:18
Current SOS:18
Current Record:17-14
Expected Record:17-14
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-1
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:25
Expected OOC SOS:24



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-1469.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgetown.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Oregon (28.0)P12N75-82L0%0.0
11-13Wright St. (173.0)HorzH88-70W100%0.0
11-21Northeastern (222.0)CAAN56-63L0%0.0
11-22Kansas St. (51.0)B12N90-63W100%0.0
11-24VCU (13.0)A10N80-84W100%0.0
11-30Lipscomb (209.0)ASunH70-49W100%0.0
12-5High Point (172.0)BSthH80-45W100%0.0
12-7Colgate (256.0)PatH61-55W100%0.0
12-17Elon (162.0)SCH85-76W100%0.0
12-21Kansas (3.0)B12A86-64L0%0.0
12-28FIU (202.0)CUSAH92-57W100%0.0
12-31DePaul (154.0)BEH61-54W100%0.0
1-4St. John's (67.0)BEH77-60W100%0.0
1-8Providence (40.0)BEA70-52L0%0.0
1-11Butler (150.0)BEA67-70W100%0.0
1-15Xavier (47.0)BEA80-67L0%0.0
1-18Seton Hall (128.0)BEH57-67L0%0.0
1-20Marquette (92.0)BEH72-80L0%0.0
1-25Creighton (10.0)BEA76-63L0%0.0
1-27Villanova (5.0)BEH60-65L0%0.0
2-1Michigan St. (18.0)B10N64-60W100%0.0
2-3DePaul (154.0)BEA59-71W100%0.0
2-8Butler (150.0)BEH71-63W100%0.0
2-10Providence (40.0)BEH83-71W100%0.0
2-16St. John's (67.0)BEA82-60L0%0.0
2-20Seton Hall (128.0)BEA82-67L0%0.0
2-22Xavier (47.0)BEH74-52W100%0.0
2-27Marquette (92.0)BEA75-73L0%0.0
3-4Creighton (10.0)BEH75-63W100%0.0
3-8Villanova (5.0)BEA77-59L0%0.0
3-12DePaul (154.0)BEN56-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgetown's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgetown's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgetown.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
GeorgetownBE26.3326.3352.0052.001.051.05
DePaulBE5.715.7136.6736.67-1.52-1.52
CreightonBE4.244.2480.6580.652.602.60
Seton HallBE4.234.2346.8846.88-0.26-0.26
ProvidenceBE4.224.2268.7568.751.581.58
XavierBE4.174.1763.3363.331.111.11
VillanovaBE4.144.1486.6786.673.043.04
MarquetteBE4.124.1250.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE4.124.1263.3363.331.101.10
ButlerBE4.114.1146.4346.43-0.29-0.29
KansasB121.711.7171.8871.880.750.75
Wright St.Horz1.691.6958.0658.060.270.27
Kansas St.B121.661.6664.5264.520.480.48
VCUA101.641.6478.7978.790.940.94
NortheasternCAA1.641.6432.2632.26-0.58-0.58
ColgatePat1.611.6141.3841.38-0.28-0.28
ElonSC1.611.6157.1457.140.230.23
FIUCUSA1.611.6148.1548.15-0.06-0.06
High PointBSth1.611.6151.8551.850.060.06
LipscombASun1.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
Michigan St.B101.611.6178.7978.790.930.93
OregonP121.611.6170.9770.970.680.68
Arizona St.P120.220.2265.6265.620.070.07
TexasB120.200.2069.7069.700.080.08
George WashingtonA100.200.2075.0075.000.100.10
Oklahoma St.B120.180.1863.6463.640.050.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.170.1760.6160.610.040.04
OklahomaB120.170.1771.8871.880.070.07
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.160.1626.6726.67-0.07-0.07
SyracuseACC0.160.1684.3884.380.110.11
VanderbiltSEC0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
USCP120.150.1532.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Iowa St.B120.150.1578.7978.790.090.09
Oregon St.P120.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
IowaB100.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
WisconsinB100.150.1578.7978.790.090.09
Saint Joseph'sA100.150.1572.7372.730.070.07
NorthwesternB100.140.1442.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
DelawareCAA0.130.1373.5373.530.060.06
TowsonCAA0.130.1367.7467.740.040.04
FordhamA100.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.120.1214.8114.81-0.09-0.09
San Diego St.MWC0.120.1287.1087.100.090.09
Long Beach St.BW0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VMIBSth0.110.1155.5655.560.010.01
WoffordSC0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.110.1114.2914.29-0.08-0.08
CharlotteCUSA0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
TulaneCUSA0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
SamfordSC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.100.1010.7110.71-0.08-0.08
BucknellPat0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
DrexelCAA0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
MercerASun0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Southern MissCUSA0.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
Wake ForestACC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
NJITind0.100.1036.0036.00-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
OaklandHorz0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
BaylorB120.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
TCUB120.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Texas TechB120.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
MassachusettsA100.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.1014.8114.81-0.07-0.07
MonmouthMAAC0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
Penn St.B100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
RichmondA100.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
StetsonASun0.080.0822.5822.58-0.05-0.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
WinthropBSth0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
AmericanPat0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
NavyPat0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
BelmontOVC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
North FloridaASun0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
North DakotaBSky0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TulsaCUSA0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
PurdueB100.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
UCLAP120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
MaristMAAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
UMKCWAC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.070.07100.00100.000.070.07
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
IllinoisB100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
NebraskaB100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
KentuckySEC0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
MichiganB100.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Appalachian St.SC0.060.0619.2319.23-0.03-0.03
DavidsonSC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
ArmyPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
LehighPat0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0570.3770.370.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
HofstraCAA0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
UICHorz0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
IUPUISum0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
MississippiSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
PennIvy0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
WagnerNEC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.050.0551.8551.850.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
MarylandACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.2121.21-0.03-0.03
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
YaleIvy0.050.0551.8551.850.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
LouisvilleAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0393.1093.100.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.033.703.70-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
HarvardIvy0.030.0386.2186.210.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
TroySB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0294.1294.120.020.02
IonaMAAC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0234.6234.62-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.020.0281.2581.250.020.02
DaytonA100.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
DuquesneA100.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
PortlandWCC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
VirginiaACC0.020.0282.3582.350.020.02