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Through games of Mar 11, 2012.

Georgetown

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:15.0
Current RPI:15
Expected SOS:14
Current SOS:14
Current Record:22-8
Expected Record:22-8
Current Conf Record:13-7
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:9-1
Expected OOC Record:9-1
Expected OOC RPI:7
Expected OOC SOS:25


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-815.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgetown.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Savannah St. (191.0)MEACH83-54W100%0.0
11-14NC Greensboro (231.0)SCH86-45W100%0.0
11-21Kansas (6.0)B12N67-63L0%0.0
11-23Memphis (16.0)CUSAN91-88W100%0.0
11-28IUPUI (211.0)SumH81-58W100%0.0
12-1Alabama (36.0)SECA55-57W100%0.0
12-3NJ Inst of Technology (304.0)GWCH84-44W100%0.0
12-10Howard (284.0)MEACH62-48W100%0.0
12-17American (142.0)PatH81-55W100%0.0
12-22Memphis (16.0)CUSAH70-59W100%0.0
12-28Louisville (13.0)BEA68-71W100%0.0
12-31Providence (156.0)BEH49-40W100%0.0
1-4Marquette (9.0)BEH73-70W100%0.0
1-7West Virginia (57.0)BEA74-62L0%0.0
1-9Cincinnati (44.0)BEH64-68L0%0.0
1-15St. John's (159.0)BEA49-69W100%0.0
1-17DePaul (198.0)BEA75-83W100%0.0
1-21Rutgers (163.0)BEH52-50W100%0.0
1-28Pittsburgh (96.0)BEA72-60L0%0.0
2-1Connecticut (32.0)BEH58-44W100%0.0
2-4South Florida (52.0)BEH75-45W100%0.0
2-8Syracuse (1.0)BEA64-61L0%0.0
2-12St. John's (159.0)BEH71-61W100%0.0
2-18Providence (156.0)BEA53-63W100%0.0
2-21Seton Hall (68.0)BEA73-55L0%0.0
2-25Villanova (121.0)BEH67-46W100%0.0
2-27Notre Dame (39.0)BEH59-41W100%0.0
3-3Marquette (9.0)BEA83-69L0%0.0
3-7Pittsburgh (96.0)BEN64-52W100%0.0
3-8Cincinnati (44.0)BEN72-70L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgetown's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgetown's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgetown.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
GeorgetownBE26.0826.0873.7773.7712.4012.40
CincinnatiBE3.983.9868.7568.751.491.49
PittsburghBE3.923.9251.6151.610.130.13
St. John'sBE3.923.9243.3343.33-0.52-0.52
MarquetteBE3.893.8980.0080.002.342.34
ProvidenceBE3.873.8750.0050.000.000.00
MemphisCUSA3.363.3681.2581.252.102.10
LouisvilleBE2.492.4976.4776.471.321.32
VillanovaBE2.362.3641.9441.94-0.38-0.38
South FloridaBE2.362.3661.2961.290.530.53
Seton HallBE2.342.3461.2961.290.530.53
SyracuseBE2.332.3393.7593.752.042.04
ConnecticutBE2.312.3162.5062.500.580.58
RutgersBE2.292.2945.1645.16-0.22-0.22
Notre DameBE2.282.2868.7568.750.860.86
West VirginiaBE2.282.2858.0658.060.370.37
DePaulBE2.282.2840.0040.00-0.46-0.46
HowardMEAC1.751.7531.0331.03-0.66-0.66
AmericanPat1.721.7266.6766.670.570.57
KansasB121.721.7281.2581.251.081.08
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC1.721.7240.7440.74-0.32-0.32
Savannah St.MEAC1.691.6965.5265.520.530.53
IUPUISum1.691.6941.3841.38-0.29-0.29
AlabamaSEC1.671.6767.7467.740.590.59
NC GreensboroSC1.671.6740.0040.00-0.33-0.33
MarshallCUSA0.250.2560.6160.610.050.05
TennesseeSEC0.230.2354.8454.840.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.190.1975.0075.000.090.09
Central FloridaCUSA0.170.1766.6766.670.060.06
HamptonMEAC0.160.1636.3636.36-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.160.1625.8125.81-0.08-0.08
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.140.1431.0331.03-0.05-0.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Chicago St.GWC0.140.1410.7110.71-0.11-0.11
South Carolina St.MEAC0.130.1310.3410.34-0.11-0.11
LehighPat0.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
Holy CrossPat0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
MississippiSEC0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
Kansas St.B120.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
Louisiana St.SEC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Miami FLACC0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Texas A&MB120.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.130.1394.1294.120.110.11
Oklahoma St.B120.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.120.1240.7440.74-0.02-0.02
Southern MississippiCUSA0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
North DakotaGWC0.110.1148.1548.15-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.06-0.06
ColgatePat0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.1138.4638.46-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.110.1110.3410.34-0.08-0.08
ArkansasSEC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.110.1113.3313.33-0.08-0.08
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.110.1182.3582.350.070.07
DukeACC0.100.1081.8281.820.070.07
AuburnSEC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
FloridaSEC0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
DetroitHorz0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Iowa St.B120.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
BaylorB120.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
MissouriB120.100.1088.2488.240.080.08
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
OklahomaB120.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
Texas El PasoCUSA0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
XavierA100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Houston BaptistGWC0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Utah ValleyGWC0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
Longwoodind0.090.0922.2222.22-0.05-0.05
LafayettePat0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
OaklandSum0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Appalachian St.SC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.080.0816.1316.13-0.05-0.05
WisconsinB100.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
RichmondA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
BucknellPat0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
BrownIvy0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
RiderMAAC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
College of CharlestonSC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Texas TechB120.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
BryantNEC0.080.086.676.67-0.07-0.07
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
FordhamA100.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
La SalleA100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
PennsylvaniaIvy0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
AlbanyAE0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
WagnerNEC0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
TulaneCUSA0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.060.0629.6329.63-0.02-0.02
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
South DakotaSum0.060.0628.0028.00-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahSum0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
ElonSC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.050.057.147.14-0.05-0.05
SamfordSC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
DavidsonSC0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.053.123.12-0.05-0.05
ArizonaP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
MonmouthNEC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
WashingtonP120.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
ButlerHorz0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Western KentuckySB0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
MarylandACC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MaineAE0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BelmontASun0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
CharlotteA100.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HoustonCUSA0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.050.0596.4396.430.050.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
RiceCUSA0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Southern MethodistCUSA0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Long IslandNEC0.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
MassachusettsA100.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
StetsonASun0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
CornellIvy0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeSB0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
MinnesotaB100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacNEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
WoffordSC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
AkronMAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityAE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
MercerASun0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Penn St.B100.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
St. LouisA100.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
St. Peter'sMAAC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
TempleA100.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
YaleIvy0.030.0365.3865.380.010.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
HarvardIvy0.030.0386.2186.210.020.02
NC AshevilleBSth0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0379.4179.410.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.030.0318.7518.75-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0239.3939.39-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
OhioMAC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.026.906.90-0.02-0.02