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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Georgetown

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:106.0
Current RPI:106
Expected SOS:29
Current SOS:29
Current Record:14-18
Expected Record:14-18
Current Conf Record:5-14
Expected Conf Record:5-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-1
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:68
Expected OOC SOS:43



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-18106.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgetown.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12USC Upstate (229.0)ASunH105-60W100%0.0
11-15Maryland (36.0)B10H75-76L0%0.0
11-17Arkansas St. (119.0)SBH72-78L0%0.0
11-21Oregon (9.0)P12N61-65W100%0.0
11-22Wisconsin (35.0)B10N57-73L0%0.0
11-23Oklahoma St. (39.0)B12N97-70L0%0.0
11-27Howard (337.0)MEACH85-72W100%0.0
11-30Coppin St. (336.0)MEACH96-44W100%0.0
12-4Elon (161.0)CAAH77-74W100%0.0
12-10La Salle (133.0)A10N93-78W100%0.0
12-17Syracuse (84.0)ACCA71-78W100%0.0
12-22UNC Greensboro (95.0)SCH78-56W100%0.0
12-28Marquette (60.0)BEA76-66L0%0.0
12-31Xavier (37.0)BEH76-81L0%0.0
1-4Providence (56.0)BEA76-70L0%0.0
1-7Butler (15.0)BEH76-85L0%0.0
1-9St. John's (140.0)BEH83-55W100%0.0
1-14Connecticut (118.0)AmerH72-69W100%0.0
1-16Providence (56.0)BEH56-74L0%0.0
1-22Xavier (37.0)BEA86-75L0%0.0
1-25Creighton (26.0)BEH71-51W100%0.0
1-28Butler (15.0)BEA81-85W100%0.0
1-31DePaul (239.0)BEA73-76W100%0.0
2-4Seton Hall (43.0)BEH66-68L0%0.0
2-7Villanova (1.0)BEA75-64L0%0.0
2-11Marquette (60.0)BEH80-62W100%0.0
2-19Creighton (26.0)BEA87-70L0%0.0
2-22DePaul (239.0)BEH65-67L0%0.0
2-25St. John's (140.0)BEA86-80L0%0.0
2-28Seton Hall (43.0)BEA62-59L0%0.0
3-4Villanova (1.0)BEH55-81L0%0.0
3-8St. John's (140.0)BEA74-73L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgetown's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgetown's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgetown.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
GeorgetownBE26.3126.3139.1939.19-5.69-5.69
St. John'sBE5.535.5340.0040.00-1.11-1.11
VillanovaBE4.144.1490.6290.623.363.36
CreightonBE4.114.1174.1974.191.991.99
XavierBE4.094.0959.3859.380.770.77
Seton HallBE4.044.0463.3363.331.081.08
MarquetteBE4.044.0462.0762.070.970.97
ProvidenceBE3.993.9960.0060.000.800.80
DePaulBE3.993.9926.6726.67-1.86-1.86
ButlerBE3.993.9975.8675.862.062.06
WisconsinB101.711.7172.7372.730.780.78
HowardMEAC1.691.6925.8125.81-0.82-0.82
SyracuseACC1.681.6858.0658.060.270.27
ConnecticutAmer1.641.6448.3948.39-0.05-0.05
MarylandB101.641.6473.3373.330.760.76
Oklahoma St.B121.611.6160.0060.000.320.32
Coppin St.MEAC1.611.6124.1424.14-0.83-0.83
La SalleA101.611.6151.7251.720.060.06
OregonP121.591.5987.5087.501.191.19
Arkansas St.SB1.561.5660.0060.000.310.31
ElonCAA1.561.5655.1755.170.160.16
UNC GreensboroSC1.561.5673.3373.330.730.73
USC UpstateASun1.561.5648.1548.15-0.06-0.06
NorthwesternB100.200.2067.6567.650.070.07
RutgersB100.190.1943.7543.75-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.190.1972.7372.730.090.09
UtahP120.170.1762.0762.070.040.04
TempleAmer0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.170.1785.2985.290.120.12
Ohio St.B100.170.1753.1253.120.010.01
MichiganB100.170.1768.5768.570.060.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.150.1526.6726.67-0.07-0.07
IndianaB100.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
VirginiaACC0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
Wake ForestACC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
DelawareCAA0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
FordhamA100.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
VCUA100.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
BaylorB120.120.1277.4277.420.070.07
CaliforniaP120.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Michigan St.B100.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
Penn St.B100.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.1022.5822.58-0.06-0.06
MassachusettsA100.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.103.333.33-0.09-0.09
South FloridaAmer0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
VermontAE0.100.1084.8584.850.070.07
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1017.8617.86-0.06-0.06
ArizonaP120.100.1088.2488.240.070.07
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
MemphisAmer0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
LehighPat0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
ClemsonACC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.1060.7160.710.020.02
StanfordP120.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.100.1026.6726.67-0.04-0.04
NebraskaB100.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
TulaneAmer0.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
UCFAmer0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Arizona St.P120.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
ColoradoP120.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
HofstraCAA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
TowsonCAA0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
Iowa St.B120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Kansas St.B120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
TCUB120.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
WoffordSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
IUPUISum0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0740.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
AkronMAC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
IllinoisB100.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
OklahomaB120.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0738.4638.46-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
WagnerNEC0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
PennIvy0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0710.3410.34-0.06-0.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Washington St.P120.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
NJITASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
AuburnSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ColgatePat0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
RichmondA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
DukeACC0.050.0577.1477.140.030.03
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
FurmanSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
TroySB0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
VMISC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
TulsaAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
BrownIvy0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
MaineAE0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0529.4129.41-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
UCLAP120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
USCP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
LafayettePat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
High PointBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
NavyPat0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
CornellIvy0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
HarvardIvy0.020.0261.5461.540.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
MontanaBSky0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UNLVMWC0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01