live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Feb 10, 2016.


Villanova

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:3.7
Current RPI:3
Expected SOS:18
Current SOS:7
Current Record:21-3
Expected Record:27-4
Current Conf Record:11-1
Expected Conf Record:16-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:9-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:10
Expected OOC SOS:34



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-31.927.84%
27-43.243.38%
26-55.522.50%
25-68.25.56%
24-711.30.68%
23-818.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Villanova.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Fairleigh Dickinson (223.8)NECH91-54W100%0.0
11-17Nebraska (149.4)B10H87-63W100%0.0
11-20East Tennessee St. (124.0)SCH86-51W100%0.0
11-22Akron (33.2)MACH75-56W100%0.0
11-26Stanford (87.7)P12N59-45W100%0.0
11-27Georgia Tech (87.7)ACCN69-52W100%0.0
12-1Saint Joseph's (28.1)A10A72-86W100%0.0
12-7Oklahoma (3.4)B12N55-78L0%0.0
12-13La Salle (260.5)A10H76-47W100%0.0
12-19Virginia (5.8)ACCA86-75L0%0.0
12-22Delaware (275.6)CAAH78-48W100%0.0
12-28Penn (276.7)IvyH77-57W100%0.0
12-31Xavier (9.6)BEH95-64W100%0.0
1-2Creighton (80.1)BEA71-85W100%0.0
1-6Seton Hall (54.5)BEH72-63W100%0.0
1-10Butler (48.7)BEA55-60W100%0.0
1-13Marquette (115.6)BEH83-68W100%0.0
1-16Georgetown (70.3)BEA50-55W100%0.0
1-20Seton Hall (54.5)BEA71-72W100%0.0
1-24Providence (50.3)BEH76-82L0%0.0
1-31St. John's (232.4)BEA53-68W100%0.0
2-3Creighton (80.1)BEH83-58W100%0.0
2-6Providence (50.3)BEA60-72W100%0.0
2-9DePaul (167.1)BEA59-86W100%0.0
2-13St. John's (232.4)BEH0-099%27.4
2-17Temple (84.7)AmerA0-085%11.5
2-20Butler (48.7)BEH0-080%9.0
2-24Xavier (9.6)BEA0-055%1.4
2-27Marquette (115.6)BEA0-085%11.2
3-1DePaul (167.1)BEH0-098%22.5
3-5Georgetown (70.3)BEH0-090%14.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Villanova's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Villanova's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Villanova.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VillanovaBE26.3326.3186.8486.5719.4019.25
CreightonBE4.814.1369.5766.311.881.35
DePaulBE2.774.1034.7836.37-0.84-1.12
ButlerBE2.724.1073.9173.191.301.90
GeorgetownBE2.724.0858.3356.150.450.50
MarquetteBE2.734.0866.6761.390.910.93
ProvidenceBE4.684.0873.9170.482.241.67
Seton HallBE4.724.0777.2772.962.571.87
St. John'sBE2.684.0726.0925.10-1.28-2.03
XavierBE2.684.0791.3086.112.212.94
TempleAmer0.291.8163.6461.270.080.41
Saint Joseph'sA102.191.7386.9684.031.621.18
La SalleA102.181.7220.0021.09-1.31-1.00
PennIvy2.181.6941.1839.14-0.38-0.37
DelawareCAA2.131.6722.7324.16-1.16-0.86
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC2.131.6752.3853.830.100.13
Georgia TechACC2.171.6756.5253.710.280.12
StanfordP122.131.6752.6348.250.11-0.06
NebraskaB102.171.6654.1752.470.180.08
OklahomaB122.171.6686.3681.981.581.06
East Tennessee St.SC2.131.6461.9061.490.510.38
VirginiaACC2.131.6482.6177.721.390.91
AkronMAC2.081.6186.3683.931.521.09
RutgersB100.340.2421.7420.34-0.19-0.14
MassachusettsA100.260.2140.9139.26-0.05-0.05
FordhamA100.230.1952.3850.750.010.00
George WashingtonA100.220.1975.0071.920.110.08
Miami FLACC0.220.1982.6177.520.140.10
Rhode IslandA100.310.1958.3357.220.050.03
CincinnatiAmer0.130.1972.0071.540.060.08
WisconsinB100.170.1862.5056.960.040.03
WagnerNEC0.180.1763.6465.020.050.05
BrownIvy0.180.1631.5831.04-0.07-0.06
Arizona St.P120.180.1654.1751.670.010.01
BryantNEC0.170.1625.0026.40-0.09-0.08
SyracuseACC0.170.1666.6762.560.060.04
IndianaB100.170.1679.1774.060.100.08
IUPUISum0.170.1640.0039.76-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.200.1431.5831.74-0.07-0.05
DrexelCAA0.150.1413.6418.18-0.11-0.09
HarvardIvy0.190.1435.0038.52-0.06-0.03
DaytonA100.140.1486.9682.150.110.09
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.180.1476.1973.410.090.06
South FloridaAmer0.130.1420.0019.76-0.08-0.08
TennesseeSEC0.180.1350.0048.130.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.170.1329.1726.73-0.07-0.06
PrincetonIvy0.150.1172.2274.680.070.06
ColumbiaIvy0.090.1166.6765.220.030.03
TowsonCAA0.190.1165.2259.750.060.02
George MasonA100.140.1133.3333.70-0.05-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.140.1137.5043.37-0.03-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.140.119.0912.25-0.12-0.08
ArizonaP120.140.1179.1778.330.080.06
Green BayHorz0.190.1154.5556.010.020.01
The CitadelSC0.090.1131.8230.05-0.03-0.04
VMISC0.140.1115.0016.73-0.10-0.07
BradleyMVC0.180.1112.0011.96-0.13-0.08
BuffaloMAC0.130.1156.5257.000.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.090.1134.7833.05-0.03-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.090.1186.9680.370.060.07
Florida St.ACC0.090.1169.5764.900.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.130.1141.6739.91-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.090.114.357.72-0.08-0.09
ClemsonACC0.040.1158.3358.370.010.02
ConnecticutAmer0.040.1173.9172.580.020.05
LouisvilleACC0.090.1179.1776.070.050.06
NJITASun0.130.1154.1755.260.010.01
NorthwesternB100.090.1164.0062.090.020.03
Penn St.B100.040.1150.0046.760.00-0.01
PurdueB100.090.1180.0077.960.050.06
Virginia TechACC0.170.1152.0048.860.01-0.00
DukeACC0.090.1075.0071.800.040.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.110.0913.0413.56-0.08-0.06
LafayettePat0.150.0920.8321.68-0.09-0.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.0928.0030.70-0.05-0.03
CornellIvy0.040.0942.1140.18-0.01-0.02
CaliforniaP120.150.0865.2262.830.040.02
UtahP120.100.0870.8368.500.040.03
HofstraCAA0.090.0865.2264.230.030.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.140.0823.8126.56-0.08-0.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.130.0840.9143.25-0.02-0.01
TexasB120.100.0866.6762.210.030.02
USCP120.040.0878.2673.050.020.04
William & MaryCAA0.130.0871.4369.840.060.03
ArkansasSEC0.140.0850.0053.000.000.00
SamfordSC0.090.0841.6742.61-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.090.0843.4846.22-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.090.0860.8756.360.020.01
RiderMAAC0.130.0840.0042.12-0.03-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.040.0872.7370.400.020.03
VCUA100.140.0873.9174.060.070.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.090.0852.9452.060.010.00
Long Beach St.BW0.130.0845.4551.39-0.010.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0858.3359.360.010.02
West VirginiaB120.090.0879.1778.060.050.05
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0831.8232.69-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0865.2266.190.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.130.0859.0955.220.020.01
MichiganB100.090.0870.8366.720.040.03
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0824.0024.57-0.05-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.040.0883.3378.400.030.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.0814.2920.65-0.09-0.05
LSUSEC0.090.0862.5059.050.020.01
Notre DameACC0.090.0870.8367.820.040.03
PittsburghACC0.090.0872.7367.630.040.03
IllinoisB100.120.0845.8344.11-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.080.0882.6180.520.050.05
MarylandB100.080.0887.5083.690.060.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0829.1733.74-0.04-0.03
Michigan St.B100.120.0880.0081.580.070.05
YaleIvy0.060.0673.6874.680.030.03
WashingtonP120.060.0662.5060.110.010.01
ColoradoP120.100.0669.5765.310.040.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.090.0647.8348.87-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0640.0045.48-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.050.0682.6179.250.030.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0661.9056.450.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0634.7837.06-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0650.0049.490.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.050.0686.9682.900.040.04
Washington St.P120.050.0636.3631.98-0.01-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0686.9686.650.030.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0663.6460.930.010.01
ElonCAA0.050.0652.1750.420.000.00
FurmanSC0.050.0654.1754.080.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0670.8369.490.020.02
MercerSC0.050.0669.5769.040.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.090.0645.8346.63-0.01-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0627.2731.06-0.04-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0628.5731.30-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.050.0561.9058.060.010.01
RichmondA100.090.0556.5255.730.010.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0534.7832.42-0.00-0.02
IonaMAAC0.090.0560.8760.750.020.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.040.0590.4886.910.040.04
BaylorB120.050.0573.9168.480.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0550.0045.820.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0547.6249.35-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.040.0520.8323.19-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0541.6739.46-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0570.8367.980.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.040.055.007.22-0.04-0.05
Indiana St.MVC0.040.0550.0049.600.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.090.0570.8368.000.040.02
KansasB120.050.0582.6179.190.030.03
Kansas St.B120.090.0558.3356.290.020.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0565.2260.580.000.01
MississippiSEC0.090.0562.5058.920.020.01
Missouri St.MVC0.040.0537.5037.41-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.040.0543.4850.66-0.010.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0560.0057.640.010.01
OhioMAC0.050.0563.6461.480.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0545.8342.32-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.040.0517.3920.66-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.040.0515.0015.32-0.03-0.04
TCUB120.050.0545.8339.35-0.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.050.0560.8755.300.010.01
TroySB0.090.0523.8126.72-0.05-0.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0566.6764.730.000.02
UCFAmer0.000.0550.0044.680.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.040.0524.0026.33-0.02-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.040.0558.3359.960.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0573.9176.740.040.03
AlabamaSEC0.040.0560.8755.970.010.01
AuburnSEC0.040.0539.1335.44-0.01-0.02
MissouriSEC0.040.0533.3330.27-0.01-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.040.0533.3335.05-0.01-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.040.0545.4546.21-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.040.0556.5257.020.010.01
MinnesotaB100.040.0525.0027.23-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.040.0550.0049.050.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.040.0560.0055.540.010.01
TulaneAmer0.040.0536.0034.92-0.01-0.02
BelmontOVC0.040.0568.0066.660.010.02
CharlotteCUSA0.040.0534.7840.89-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0575.0076.190.040.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.040.0515.0018.11-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.080.0525.0026.74-0.04-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.040.0550.0054.190.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0545.8343.68-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.040.0533.3333.13-0.01-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.040.0580.0081.160.020.03
North TexasCUSA0.080.0533.3333.07-0.03-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.040.0525.0026.87-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.040.0550.0051.280.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.040.0523.8122.82-0.02-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0514.2924.86-0.06-0.03
StetsonASun0.040.0523.8127.73-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0545.4554.16-0.010.00
UTSACUSA0.080.0513.6413.63-0.06-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0527.7829.16-0.04-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.060.0320.8324.09-0.03-0.02
NavyPat0.060.0364.0064.480.020.01
ArmyPat0.050.0354.1754.290.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0347.6252.03-0.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0342.1145.67-0.01-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0385.7185.380.040.02
UCLAP120.000.0356.5253.270.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0352.0050.230.000.00
MaristMAAC0.050.0321.7424.20-0.03-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0350.0052.380.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0325.0033.20-0.02-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0365.2264.370.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0360.8757.160.010.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0331.8236.14-0.02-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0325.0030.04-0.02-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0321.7422.74-0.03-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0340.0043.42-0.01-0.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0384.2181.660.030.02
LehighPat0.040.0339.1342.82-0.01-0.00
LipscombASun0.050.0325.0029.28-0.02-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0350.0051.190.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0317.6529.03-0.03-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.040.0319.0525.90-0.03-0.01
OaklandHorz0.040.0368.0067.990.020.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0339.1341.11-0.01-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0352.1754.140.000.00
ToledoMAC0.050.0360.8762.080.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0342.8650.41-0.010.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.040.0335.0034.80-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.040.0324.0025.67-0.02-0.01
ColgatePat0.040.0343.4844.89-0.01-0.00
FloridaSEC0.040.0366.6766.330.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.040.0354.1750.990.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.040.0320.0022.26-0.02-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.040.0356.5262.820.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.040.039.0917.14-0.03-0.02