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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Villanova

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:4.0
Current RPI:4
Expected SOS:14
Current SOS:14
Current Record:29-5
Expected Record:29-5
Current Conf Record:18-3
Expected Conf Record:18-3
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:8-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:6
Expected OOC SOS:15



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-54.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Villanova.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Fairleigh Dickinson (205.0)NECH91-54W100%0.0
11-17Nebraska (165.0)B10H87-63W100%0.0
11-20East Tennessee St. (85.0)SCH86-51W100%0.0
11-22Akron (34.0)MACH75-56W100%0.0
11-26Stanford (86.0)P12N59-45W100%0.0
11-27Georgia Tech (69.0)ACCN69-52W100%0.0
12-1Saint Joseph's (22.0)A10A72-86W100%0.0
12-7Oklahoma (6.0)B12N55-78L0%0.0
12-13La Salle (232.0)A10H76-47W100%0.0
12-19Virginia (3.0)ACCA86-75L0%0.0
12-22Delaware (274.0)CAAH78-48W100%0.0
12-28Penn (283.0)IvyH77-57W100%0.0
12-31Xavier (7.0)BEH95-64W100%0.0
1-2Creighton (100.0)BEA71-85W100%0.0
1-6Seton Hall (19.0)BEH72-63W100%0.0
1-10Butler (57.0)BEA55-60W100%0.0
1-13Marquette (110.0)BEH83-68W100%0.0
1-16Georgetown (106.0)BEA50-55W100%0.0
1-20Seton Hall (19.0)BEA71-72W100%0.0
1-24Providence (40.0)BEH76-82L0%0.0
1-31St. John's (246.0)BEA53-68W100%0.0
2-3Creighton (100.0)BEH83-58W100%0.0
2-6Providence (40.0)BEA60-72W100%0.0
2-9DePaul (198.0)BEA59-86W100%0.0
2-13St. John's (246.0)BEH73-63W100%0.0
2-17Temple (60.0)AmerA67-83W100%0.0
2-20Butler (57.0)BEH77-67W100%0.0
2-24Xavier (7.0)BEA90-83L0%0.0
2-27Marquette (110.0)BEA79-89W100%0.0
3-1DePaul (198.0)BEH83-62W100%0.0
3-5Georgetown (106.0)BEH84-71W100%0.0
3-10Georgetown (106.0)BEN81-67W100%0.0
3-11Providence (40.0)BEN76-68W100%0.0
3-12Seton Hall (19.0)BEN67-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Villanova's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Villanova's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Villanova.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VillanovaBE26.4626.4685.4485.4418.7618.76
Seton HallBE5.335.3380.0080.003.203.20
GeorgetownBE5.285.2850.0050.000.000.00
ProvidenceBE5.285.2873.3373.332.472.47
CreightonBE3.923.9260.0060.000.780.78
XavierBE3.923.9286.6786.672.872.87
MarquetteBE3.903.9064.5264.521.131.13
DePaulBE3.903.9031.0331.03-1.48-1.48
ButlerBE3.893.8972.4172.411.751.75
St. John'sBE3.853.8524.1424.14-1.99-1.99
TempleAmer1.641.6467.7467.740.580.58
Saint Joseph'sA101.571.5781.8281.821.001.00
La SalleA101.561.5627.5927.59-0.70-0.70
PennIvy1.541.5438.4638.46-0.36-0.36
Georgia TechACC1.541.5459.3859.380.290.29
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.521.5256.6756.670.200.20
StanfordP121.521.5250.0050.000.000.00
DelawareCAA1.521.5224.1424.14-0.78-0.78
NebraskaB101.521.5248.4848.48-0.05-0.05
OklahomaB121.521.5277.4277.420.830.83
VirginiaACC1.521.5278.1278.120.850.85
East Tennessee St.SC1.491.4967.7467.740.530.53
AkronMAC1.471.4778.1278.120.830.83
RutgersB100.250.2519.3519.35-0.15-0.15
MassachusettsA100.210.2143.7543.75-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.200.2069.7069.700.080.08
WisconsinB100.200.2062.5062.500.050.05
BrownIvy0.190.1925.9325.93-0.09-0.09
WagnerNEC0.190.1967.7467.740.070.07
Miami FLACC0.180.1878.1278.120.100.10
BryantNEC0.180.1823.3323.33-0.10-0.10
Rhode IslandA100.180.1853.1253.120.010.01
FordhamA100.160.1655.1755.170.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
South FloridaAmer0.160.1624.2424.24-0.08-0.08
SyracuseACC0.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
DartmouthIvy0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
HarvardIvy0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.140.1476.6776.670.070.07
DaytonA100.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
IUPUISum0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
Boston CollegeACC0.140.1421.8821.88-0.08-0.08
ConnecticutAmer0.140.1470.5970.590.060.06
DrexelCAA0.120.1220.0020.00-0.07-0.07
ArizonaP120.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
TennesseeSEC0.110.1144.1244.12-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
BradleyMVC0.110.1112.9012.90-0.08-0.08
BuffaloMAC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
ClemsonACC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
DukeACC0.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
MarylandB100.110.1175.0075.000.060.06
ColumbiaIvy0.100.1065.5265.520.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.100.1077.7877.780.060.06
TowsonCAA0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1016.6716.67-0.06-0.06
George MasonA100.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0974.1974.190.050.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
VMISC0.090.0922.2222.22-0.05-0.05
DuquesneA100.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.090.093.453.45-0.09-0.09
Florida St.ACC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
RiderMAAC0.090.0939.3939.39-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
NorthwesternB100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Penn St.B100.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
PurdueB100.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
VCUA100.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.090.0982.3582.350.060.06
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
IllinoisB100.090.0944.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Michigan St.B100.090.0985.2985.290.060.06
WashingtonP120.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
CornellIvy0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
LafayettePat0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
UtahP120.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
HofstraCAA0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
CaliforniaP120.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
TexasB120.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
USCP120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0722.2222.22-0.04-0.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0756.0056.000.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
FurmanSC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Iowa St.B120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
MemphisAmer0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
MercerSC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
WoffordSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
MichiganB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
SamfordSC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Notre DameACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
PittsburghACC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
HartfordAE0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
RadfordBSth0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.070.0724.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
IowaB100.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
YaleIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
OregonP120.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
ElonCAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Washington St.P120.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
UMBCAE0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
KansasB120.050.0587.8887.880.030.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0513.3313.33-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0529.1729.17-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0535.2935.29-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.040.0425.8125.81-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.040.0463.3363.330.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.040.0448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.040.0448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.040.0414.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.040.0453.1253.120.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.040.0458.0658.060.010.01
MaineAE0.040.0426.6726.67-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.040.0448.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.040.0458.6258.620.010.01
OhioMAC0.040.0464.5264.520.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.040.0428.5728.57-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.040.0421.4321.43-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.040.0426.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.040.0460.6160.610.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.040.0432.2632.26-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
UCLAP120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
MaristMAAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0260.7160.710.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
LipscombASun0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
ToledoMAC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0222.8622.86-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0262.8662.860.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01