live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Villanova

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:3.0
Current RPI:3
Expected SOS:22
Current SOS:22
Current Record:32-2
Expected Record:32-2
Current Conf Record:19-2
Expected Conf Record:19-2
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:8-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:13-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-0
Current OOC Record:13-0
Expected OOC Record:13-0
Expected OOC RPI:8
Expected OOC SOS:55



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
32-23.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Villanova.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Lehigh (175.0)PatN66-77W100%0.0
11-17Maryland Eastern Shore (195.0)MEACH81-44W100%0.0
11-20Bucknell (136.0)PatH72-65W100%0.0
11-24VCU (15.0)A10N53-77W100%0.0
11-25Michigan (81.0)B10N55-60W100%0.0
11-30Delaware (253.0)CAAH78-47W100%0.0
12-3La Salle (101.0)A10A70-84W100%0.0
12-6Saint Joseph's (187.0)A10H74-46W100%0.0
12-9Illinois (73.0)B10N59-73W100%0.0
12-14Temple (34.0)AmerH85-62W100%0.0
12-20Syracuse (69.0)ACCH82-77W100%0.0
12-23NJIT (159.0)indH92-67W100%0.0
12-31Butler (31.0)BEH67-55W100%0.0
1-3Seton Hall (97.0)BEA66-61L0%0.0
1-6St. John's (44.0)BEA72-90W100%0.0
1-10DePaul (197.0)BEH81-64W100%0.0
1-14Xavier (30.0)BEH88-75W100%0.0
1-17Penn (254.0)IvyA47-62W100%0.0
1-19Georgetown (25.0)BEA78-58L0%0.0
1-25Creighton (151.0)BEH71-50W100%0.0
1-31DePaul (197.0)BEA55-68W100%0.0
2-4Marquette (147.0)BEH70-52W100%0.0
2-7Georgetown (25.0)BEH69-53W100%0.0
2-11Providence (22.0)BEA68-74W100%0.0
2-14Butler (31.0)BEA65-68W100%0.0
2-16Seton Hall (97.0)BEH80-54W100%0.0
2-21Marquette (147.0)BEA76-87W100%0.0
2-24Providence (22.0)BEH89-61W100%0.0
2-28Xavier (30.0)BEA66-78W100%0.0
3-3Creighton (151.0)BEA72-76W100%0.0
3-7St. John's (44.0)BEH105-68W100%0.0
3-12Marquette (147.0)BEN84-49W100%0.0
3-13Providence (22.0)BEN63-61W100%0.0
3-14Xavier (30.0)BEN69-52W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Villanova's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Villanova's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Villanova.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VillanovaBE26.4726.4796.0596.0524.3824.38
XavierBE5.335.3367.7467.741.891.89
MarquetteBE5.315.3144.8344.83-0.55-0.55
ProvidenceBE5.285.2873.3373.332.472.47
GeorgetownBE3.963.9668.9768.971.501.50
St. John'sBE3.933.9368.9768.971.491.49
ButlerBE3.923.9273.3373.331.831.83
CreightonBE3.903.9045.1645.16-0.38-0.38
DePaulBE3.883.8840.0040.00-0.78-0.78
Seton HallBE3.873.8751.7251.720.130.13
NJITind1.631.6358.3358.330.270.27
MichiganB101.621.6250.0050.000.000.00
La SalleA101.591.5953.1253.120.100.10
Saint Joseph'sA101.581.5843.3343.33-0.21-0.21
BucknellPat1.571.5758.0658.060.250.25
TempleAmer1.571.5771.8871.880.690.69
LehighPat1.561.5653.5753.570.110.11
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.541.5458.0658.060.250.25
IllinoisB101.541.5461.2961.290.350.35
SyracuseACC1.541.5460.0060.000.310.31
VCUA101.541.5476.4776.470.820.82
PennIvy1.541.5433.3333.33-0.51-0.51
DelawareCAA1.491.4934.4834.48-0.46-0.46
NavyPat0.210.2138.7138.71-0.05-0.05
FordhamA100.200.2030.0030.00-0.08-0.08
MassachusettsA100.200.2053.1253.120.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.200.2045.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.190.1936.6736.67-0.05-0.05
AmericanPat0.190.1951.5251.520.010.01
WisconsinB100.190.1991.1891.180.150.15
George WashingtonA100.180.1863.6463.640.050.05
Rhode IslandA100.180.1870.0070.000.070.07
LafayettePat0.180.1861.2961.290.040.04
Holy CrossPat0.170.1744.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.160.1667.6567.650.060.06
St. BonaventureA100.160.1658.0658.060.030.03
MaineAE0.150.1510.0010.00-0.12-0.12
YaleIvy0.150.1566.6766.670.050.05
AlbanyAE0.150.1575.0075.000.070.07
Delaware St.MEAC0.150.1548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
ColgatePat0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.140.1437.9337.93-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
IndianaB100.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
NorthwesternB100.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.140.1469.7069.700.050.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.1457.1457.140.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
DavidsonA100.130.1376.6776.670.070.07
CincinnatiAmer0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
HamptonMEAC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
RutgersB100.120.1231.2531.25-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.120.1287.8887.880.090.09
Morgan St.MEAC0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Illinois St.MVC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
DaytonA100.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
RichmondA100.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.100.1044.4444.44-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Boston UniversityPat0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
DrexelCAA0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
MinnesotaB100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.090.0916.6716.67-0.06-0.06
Georgia TechACC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.090.0968.9768.970.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
TulaneAmer0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
Notre DameACC0.090.0985.2985.290.060.06
SMUAmer0.090.0981.2581.250.060.06
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0917.2417.24-0.06-0.06
OklahomaB120.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
TulsaAmer0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
George MasonA100.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Saint LouisA100.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
UMBCAE0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
CornellIvy0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
MaristMAAC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
HofstraCAA0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.070.0793.9493.940.060.06
StanfordP120.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
IowaB100.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0747.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.070.0768.5768.570.030.03
Penn St.B100.070.0752.9452.940.000.00
PurdueB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0739.2939.29-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
OregonP120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0775.8675.860.030.03
VirginiaACC0.070.0790.6290.620.050.05
BelmontOVC0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
KentuckySEC0.070.07100.00100.000.070.07
Stony BrookAE0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
AuburnSEC0.060.0641.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
IUPUISum0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0686.6786.670.050.05
UTEPCUSA0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0574.0774.070.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0527.2727.27-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
MercerSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
NevadaMWC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
DetroitHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.040.046.906.90-0.04-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.040.0458.8258.820.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.040.0451.7251.720.000.00
MemphisAmer0.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.040.0452.9452.940.000.00
MississippiSEC0.040.0462.5062.500.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.040.0441.3841.38-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.040.0448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.040.0425.0025.00-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.040.0437.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.040.0477.4277.420.020.02
ToledoMAC0.040.0460.6160.610.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
WagnerNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.020.0291.1891.180.020.02
CaliforniaP120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
ClemsonACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
DenverSum0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
VermontAE0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.026.906.90-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0290.9190.910.020.02