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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Villanova

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:5.3
Current RPI:4
Expected SOS:14
Current SOS:22
Current Record:8-0
Expected Record:26-5
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:8-0
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:2
Expected OOC SOS:14



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
31-01.10.31%
30-11.12.67%
29-21.48.14%
28-31.915.50%
27-43.020.48%
26-54.821.04%
25-67.315.99%
24-710.69.35%
23-814.34.36%
22-918.21.58%
21-1024.10.40%
20-1129.00.14%
19-1238.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Villanova.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Lafayette (285.6)PatH88-48W100%0.0
11-14Purdue (28.0)B10A76-79W100%0.0
11-17Western Michigan (219.9)MACN76-65W100%0.0
11-18Wake Forest (54.7)ACCN77-96W100%0.0
11-20UCF (45.0)AmerN57-67W100%0.0
11-23College of Charleston (115.6)CAAH63-47W100%0.0
11-29Penn (143.1)IvyA57-82W100%0.0
12-3Saint Joseph's (127.9)A10H88-57W100%0.0
12-6La Salle (94.8)A10N0-092%17.2
12-10Notre Dame (23.3)ACCN0-061%3.2
12-13Temple (54.0)AmerH0-091%16.3
12-21American (290.4)PatH0-0100%32.8
12-28DePaul (205.8)BEH0-098%25.4
12-31Creighton (23.9)BEA0-058%2.4
1-4Butler (15.8)BEA0-057%2.2
1-7Marquette (46.7)BEH0-081%10.4
1-10Xavier (15.9)BEH0-077%8.7
1-14St. John's (151.8)BEA0-087%13.6
1-16Seton Hall (75.4)BEH0-089%15.0
1-21Providence (74.5)BEH0-091%16.1
1-24Marquette (46.7)BEA0-063%4.1
1-29Virginia (8.6)ACCH0-058%2.5
2-1Providence (74.5)BEA0-079%9.9
2-4St. John's (151.8)BEH0-095%19.9
2-7Georgetown (97.1)BEH0-091%16.0
2-11Xavier (15.9)BEA0-058%2.5
2-13DePaul (205.8)BEA0-094%19.2
2-18Seton Hall (75.4)BEA0-077%8.7
2-22Butler (15.8)BEH0-076%8.5
2-25Creighton (23.9)BEH0-076%8.7
3-4Georgetown (97.1)BEA0-079%9.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Villanova's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Villanova's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Villanova.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VillanovaBE28.5826.31100.0084.6828.5818.25
GeorgetownBE0.004.1055.5650.160.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.004.1075.0059.480.000.78
XavierBE0.004.1087.5073.530.001.93
DePaulBE0.004.1066.6737.710.00-1.01
St. John'sBE0.004.0837.5038.97-0.00-0.90
ButlerBE0.004.07100.0077.380.002.23
MarquetteBE0.004.0775.0069.150.001.56
CreightonBE0.004.07100.0079.760.002.42
Seton HallBE0.004.0771.4357.240.000.59
TempleAmer0.971.8075.0066.790.480.61
La SalleA100.001.7766.6757.260.000.26
Saint Joseph'sA106.251.7550.0046.860.00-0.11
PennIvy6.251.7540.0058.75-1.250.31
Wake ForestACC6.601.7485.7156.374.710.22
LafayettePat6.251.7340.0034.59-1.25-0.53
UCFAmer6.601.72100.0078.876.600.99
VirginiaACC0.001.7287.5079.780.001.02
Notre DameACC0.001.69100.0078.640.000.97
AmericanPat0.001.6714.2932.46-0.00-0.59
College of CharlestonCAA7.091.6775.0063.673.540.46
PurdueB106.251.6485.7177.854.460.91
Western MichiganMAC6.251.6120.0037.32-3.75-0.41
BucknellPat0.390.2266.6766.340.130.07
MassachusettsA100.450.2171.4358.600.190.04
NorthwesternB100.390.2175.0066.170.200.07
CincinnatiAmer0.000.2187.5082.360.000.14
LehighPat0.000.1942.8666.67-0.000.06
Loyola MDPat0.000.1942.8645.94-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.450.1975.0051.040.220.00
WisconsinB100.000.1977.7876.040.000.10
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1857.1429.790.00-0.07
SyracuseACC0.000.1871.4366.700.000.06
NavyPat0.870.1725.0037.38-0.43-0.04
DrexelCAA0.520.1750.0040.600.00-0.03
FordhamA100.000.1650.0041.310.00-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.1662.5069.130.000.06
PittsburghACC0.000.1675.0049.180.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1677.7849.900.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.1671.4354.860.000.02
IowaB100.000.1637.5037.74-0.00-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.390.1687.5075.590.290.08
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1633.3339.61-0.00-0.03
MemphisAmer0.000.1675.0055.500.000.02
ColumbiaIvy0.450.1442.8642.62-0.06-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.1412.5029.71-0.00-0.06
AkronMAC0.000.1471.4368.980.000.05
DelawareCAA0.000.1450.0041.990.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.1316.6744.34-0.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.1333.3352.21-0.000.01
RutgersB100.000.1385.7145.370.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.1387.5065.250.000.04
TulaneAmer0.000.1312.5023.93-0.00-0.07
PrincetonIvy0.520.1225.0063.27-0.260.03
ArmyPat0.000.1142.8650.09-0.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1142.8654.90-0.000.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.1137.5047.37-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.1142.8663.41-0.000.03
BrownIvy0.000.1155.5646.970.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.520.1122.2241.71-0.29-0.02
Miami FLACC0.520.1175.0066.100.260.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1114.2926.74-0.00-0.05
George WashingtonA100.000.1155.5641.690.00-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1150.0046.240.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.1175.0073.060.000.05
DukeACC0.000.1188.8978.400.000.06
North CarolinaACC0.000.1187.5081.960.000.07
Virginia TechACC0.000.1185.7162.990.000.03
New HampshireAE0.000.1157.1458.840.000.02
MarylandB100.000.1187.5059.330.000.02
ElonCAA0.000.1171.4359.470.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.1157.1436.010.00-0.03
IndianaB100.000.1187.5074.490.000.05
South FloridaAmer0.000.1157.1433.230.00-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.1171.4356.260.000.01
UtahP120.000.1175.0059.790.000.02
VermontAE0.000.1162.5071.320.000.05
Ohio St.B100.000.1087.5068.610.000.04
Michigan St.B100.000.1055.5658.610.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1033.3352.84-0.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.1066.6746.420.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.520.0928.5729.95-0.22-0.04
George MasonA100.000.0862.5046.900.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.520.0833.3332.92-0.17-0.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0828.5723.78-0.00-0.04
ToledoMAC0.450.0837.5047.91-0.11-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.520.0812.5030.39-0.39-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.000.0812.5030.68-0.00-0.03
RichmondA100.390.0850.0048.210.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0871.4370.390.000.03
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0833.3339.94-0.00-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.520.0883.3377.100.350.04
DavidsonA100.350.0871.4363.170.150.02
NJITASun0.910.0850.0049.780.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0828.5723.12-0.00-0.04
CaliforniaP120.000.0885.7162.220.000.02
MississippiSEC0.450.0875.0048.500.22-0.00
WagnerNEC0.000.0833.3354.47-0.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0862.5040.460.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0820.0022.75-0.00-0.04
HoustonAmer0.000.0885.7178.280.000.05
MichiganB100.000.0875.0066.460.000.03
NebraskaB100.000.0857.1444.890.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.080.0035.95-0.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0850.0038.050.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0814.2932.19-0.00-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0825.0031.41-0.00-0.03
SMUAmer0.000.0866.6766.860.000.03
USC UpstateASun0.350.0844.4441.30-0.04-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0875.0062.620.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0887.5068.020.000.03
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0020.55-0.00-0.04
HarvardIvy0.000.0620.0046.79-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0642.8647.11-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0671.4356.250.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0650.0056.740.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0642.8645.56-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.000.0683.3371.480.000.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.520.0557.1450.420.070.00
Boise St.MWC0.870.0542.8656.04-0.120.01
DaytonA100.000.0571.4373.490.000.03
DuquesneA100.000.0544.4442.03-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.050.0034.47-0.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0542.8630.92-0.00-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.910.0520.0035.47-0.55-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0528.5731.44-0.00-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.050.0016.68-0.00-0.04
ArizonaP120.000.0575.0068.370.000.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.740.0525.0038.83-0.37-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.050.0019.67-0.00-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0566.6740.030.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0557.1452.030.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0562.5043.220.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.050.0039.53-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0542.8645.44-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0542.8650.11-0.000.00
IUPUISum0.000.0537.5051.64-0.000.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0550.0041.540.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0571.4349.170.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0528.5732.62-0.00-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0560.0058.590.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0550.0044.400.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0516.6739.20-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0550.0041.990.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0542.8638.63-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0542.8653.19-0.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0533.3346.01-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.000.0566.6754.050.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0516.6739.78-0.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0587.5075.240.000.03
HawaiiBW0.000.0550.0050.450.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0520.0021.80-0.00-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.000.050.0022.31-0.00-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0528.5736.95-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.05100.0078.850.000.03
StanfordP120.000.0566.6758.060.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0562.5052.330.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.0542.8628.98-0.00-0.02
SeattleWAC0.450.0516.6739.49-0.30-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0585.7183.660.000.04
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0575.0066.370.000.02
BaylorB120.000.05100.0076.590.000.03
BinghamtonAE0.000.0550.0043.560.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0528.5742.90-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.050.0017.13-0.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0512.5037.99-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0571.4355.160.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0571.4355.820.000.01
MaineAE0.000.0514.2924.15-0.00-0.03
MissouriSEC0.000.0557.1442.530.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0557.1458.940.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0571.4354.310.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0571.4368.050.000.02
OregonP120.000.0575.0072.250.000.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0371.4359.880.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0337.5033.74-0.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0013.46-0.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0328.5741.52-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0357.1471.940.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0357.1454.360.000.00
MercerSC0.000.0342.8647.76-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.520.0385.7177.150.370.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.180.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0350.0066.300.000.01
UCLAP120.000.03100.0086.690.000.02
WashingtonP120.000.0357.1452.370.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0342.8638.17-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0371.4351.460.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0360.0067.760.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.450.0371.4358.920.190.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.450.0375.0048.030.22-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.450.0342.8637.34-0.06-0.01
RadfordBSth0.390.0328.5734.28-0.17-0.01
StetsonASun0.450.0328.5728.24-0.19-0.01
The CitadelSC0.350.0350.0030.350.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.390.0385.7157.450.280.00
BryantNEC0.000.0325.0047.82-0.00-0.00
Fort WayneSum0.000.0371.4370.210.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.390.0350.0060.620.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.0362.5050.710.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0325.0034.40-0.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.390.030.0017.61-0.39-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.390.0316.6738.58-0.26-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0020.75-0.00-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.390.0342.8650.06-0.060.00