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Through games of Mar 11, 2012.


Villanova

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:121.0
Current RPI:121
Expected SOS:12
Current SOS:12
Current Record:13-19
Expected Record:13-19
Current Conf Record:6-14
Expected Conf Record:6-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-1
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:86
Expected OOC SOS:32



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-19121.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Villanova.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Monmouth (236.0)NECH106-70W100%0.0
11-15La Salle (90.0)A10H76-69W100%0.0
11-18Delaware (153.0)CAAH79-69W100%0.0
11-24UC Riverside (253.0)BWN46-71W100%0.0
11-25St. Louis (31.0)A10N80-68L0%0.0
11-27Santa Clara (303.0)WCCN64-65L0%0.0
12-3Pennsylvania (98.0)IvyH73-65W100%0.0
12-6Missouri (10.0)B12N71-81L0%0.0
12-10Temple (19.0)A10A78-67L0%0.0
12-13Boston University (190.0)AEH68-43W100%0.0
12-17Saint Joseph's (69.0)A10A74-58L0%0.0
12-22American (142.0)PatH73-52W100%0.0
12-28West Virginia (57.0)BEA83-69L0%0.0
1-1Marquette (9.0)BEA81-77L0%0.0
1-5South Florida (52.0)BEH57-74L0%0.0
1-8DePaul (198.0)BEH87-71W100%0.0
1-11Syracuse (1.0)BEH66-79L0%0.0
1-14Cincinnati (44.0)BEA82-78L0%0.0
1-18Seton Hall (68.0)BEH84-76W100%0.0
1-21St. John's (159.0)BEA76-79W100%0.0
1-25Louisville (13.0)BEA84-74L0%0.0
1-28Marquette (9.0)BEH78-82L0%0.0
2-5Pittsburgh (96.0)BEA79-70L0%0.0
2-7Providence (156.0)BEH74-72W100%0.0
2-15South Florida (52.0)BEA65-51L0%0.0
2-18Notre Dame (39.0)BEH70-74L0%0.0
2-20Connecticut (32.0)BEH70-73L0%0.0
2-25Georgetown (15.0)BEA67-46L0%0.0
3-1Rutgers (163.0)BEA71-77W100%0.0
3-3Cincinnati (44.0)BEH68-72L0%0.0
3-6Rutgers (163.0)BEN49-70W100%0.0
3-7South Florida (52.0)BEN56-47L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Villanova's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Villanova's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Villanova.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VillanovaBE26.0726.0736.4336.43-7.08-7.08
South FloridaBE5.175.1755.1755.170.530.53
CincinnatiBE3.713.7168.7568.751.391.39
RutgersBE3.663.6646.6746.67-0.24-0.24
MarquetteBE3.653.6576.6776.671.951.95
PittsburghBE2.242.2450.0050.000.000.00
LouisvilleBE2.242.2473.5373.531.051.05
Notre DameBE2.242.2465.6265.620.700.70
GeorgetownBE2.212.2172.4172.410.990.99
Seton HallBE2.192.1964.5264.520.640.64
ProvidenceBE2.172.1748.3948.39-0.07-0.07
ConnecticutBE2.172.1759.3859.380.410.41
SyracuseBE2.162.1693.7593.751.891.89
St. John'sBE2.142.1441.9441.94-0.35-0.35
West VirginiaBE2.142.1458.0658.060.350.35
DePaulBE2.112.1140.0040.00-0.42-0.42
La SalleA101.791.7965.6265.620.560.56
Saint Joseph'sA101.761.7659.3859.380.330.33
TempleA101.731.7376.6776.670.920.92
PennsylvaniaIvy1.681.6863.3363.330.450.45
DelawareCAA1.661.6660.0060.000.330.33
St. LouisA101.661.6676.6776.670.880.88
Boston UniversityAE1.641.6451.6151.610.050.05
AmericanPat1.611.6166.6766.670.540.54
MonmouthNEC1.611.6138.7138.71-0.36-0.36
MissouriB121.591.5987.8887.881.201.20
Santa ClaraWCC1.561.5618.5218.52-0.98-0.98
UC RiversideBW1.561.5642.8642.86-0.22-0.22
RichmondA100.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
FordhamA100.200.2034.4834.48-0.06-0.06
XavierA100.190.1963.6463.640.050.05
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.170.1713.3313.33-0.13-0.13
MassachusettsA100.170.1766.6766.670.060.06
WagnerNEC0.150.1580.6580.650.090.09
LafayettePat0.150.1541.9441.94-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
VermontAE0.150.1567.6567.650.050.05
DuquesneA100.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Old DominionCAA0.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
HarvardIvy0.150.1586.2186.210.110.11
Rhode IslandA100.150.1522.5822.58-0.08-0.08
Robert MorrisNEC0.150.1570.5970.590.060.06
KansasB120.150.1581.8281.820.090.09
George WashingtonA100.150.1532.2632.26-0.05-0.05
OklahomaB120.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.130.1340.7440.74-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.120.1223.3323.33-0.07-0.07
DartmouthIvy0.120.1213.7913.79-0.09-0.09
NortheasternCAA0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.120.1227.5927.59-0.06-0.06
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.120.1282.3582.350.080.08
BucknellPat0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
CharlotteA100.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
AlbanyAE0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
TexasB120.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
PortlandWCC0.110.1120.0020.00-0.07-0.07
Cal PolyBW0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
LehighPat0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
Long Beach St.BW0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.100.103.123.12-0.09-0.09
HamptonMEAC0.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.100.1060.7160.710.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Florida AtlanticSB0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
MaristMAAC0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.100.107.147.14-0.08-0.08
St. Francis PANEC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
AuburnSEC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Louisiana St.SEC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.100.1070.0070.000.040.04
RiderMAAC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Penn St.B100.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1010.3410.34-0.08-0.08
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
BaylorB120.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0819.2319.23-0.05-0.05
PacificBW0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0864.2964.290.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
HowardMEAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
George MasonCAA0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
HofstraCAA0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
YaleIvy0.070.0765.3865.380.020.02
MemphisCUSA0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
ColgatePat0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
James MadisonCAA0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
QuinnipiacNEC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
WashingtonP120.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
New HampshireAE0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
William & MaryCAA0.070.0716.1316.13-0.05-0.05
BryantNEC0.070.076.676.67-0.06-0.06
FloridaSEC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
BinghamtonAE0.070.076.456.45-0.06-0.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.GWC0.070.0710.7110.71-0.06-0.06
RadfordBSth0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
Texas TechB120.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Kansas St.B120.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
Texas A&MB120.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Brigham YoungWCC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
PepperdineWCC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
St. Mary'sWCC0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
San Jose St.WAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Washington St.P120.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
UC DavisBW0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.CAA0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
NC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
MarylandACC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Long IslandNEC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0594.1294.120.040.04
Western KentuckySB0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
NevadaWAC0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.030.0318.7518.75-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Texas El PasoCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
NC GreensboroSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
DavidsonSC0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
AkronMAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Longwoodind0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
NorthwesternB100.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
St. Peter'sMAAC0.020.0216.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Central FloridaCUSA0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
CreightonMVC0.020.0284.8584.850.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
IonaMAAC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
NC AshevilleBSth0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
TulaneCUSA0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
TulsaCUSA0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Virginia Military InstBSth0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
IllinoisB100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.026.676.67-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
ButlerHorz0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
College of CharlestonSC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
LamarSlnd0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
OhioMAC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.026.906.90-0.02-0.02