Villanova

Conference:	BE
Expected RPI:	2.0
Current RPI:	2
Expected SOS:	11
Current SOS:	11
Current Record:	30-4
Expected Record:	30-4
Current Conf Record:	17-4
Expected Conf Record:	17-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	4-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	10-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	3-0
Current OOC Record:	13-0
Expected OOC Record:	13-0
Expected OOC RPI:	1
Expected OOC SOS:	41

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
30-4	2.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Villanova.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Columbia (316.0)	Ivy	H	75-60	W	100%
11-14	Nicholls St. (145.0)	Slnd	H	113-77	W	100%
11-17	Lafayette (311.0)	Pat	N	104-57	W	100%
11-22	Western Kentucky (39.0)	CUSA	N	66-58	W	100%
11-23	Tennessee (8.0)	SEC	N	85-76	W	100%
11-24	Northern Iowa (138.0)	MVC	N	50-64	W	100%
11-29	Penn (112.0)	Ivy	H	90-62	W	100%
12-2	Saint Joseph's (147.0)	A10	A	53-94	W	100%
12-5	Gonzaga (21.0)	WCC	N	72-88	W	100%
12-10	La Salle (202.0)	A10	H	77-68	W	100%
12-13	Temple (52.0)	Amer	A	67-87	W	100%
12-22	Hofstra (121.0)	CAA	N	71-95	W	100%
12-27	DePaul (186.0)	BE	A	85-103	W	100%
12-30	Butler (41.0)	BE	A	101-93	L	0%
1-6	Marquette (58.0)	BE	H	100-90	W	100%
1-10	Xavier (3.0)	BE	H	89-65	W	100%
1-13	St. John's (92.0)	BE	A	71-78	W	100%
1-17	Georgetown (169.0)	BE	A	56-88	W	100%
1-20	Connecticut (123.0)	Amer	A	61-81	W	100%
1-23	Providence (32.0)	BE	H	89-69	W	100%
1-28	Marquette (58.0)	BE	A	82-85	W	100%
2-1	Creighton (44.0)	BE	H	98-78	W	100%
2-4	Seton Hall (31.0)	BE	H	92-76	W	100%
2-7	St. John's (92.0)	BE	H	75-79	L	0%
2-10	Butler (41.0)	BE	H	86-75	W	100%
2-14	Providence (32.0)	BE	A	76-71	L	0%
2-17	Xavier (3.0)	BE	A	79-95	W	100%
2-21	DePaul (186.0)	BE	H	93-62	W	100%
2-24	Creighton (44.0)	BE	A	89-83	L	0%
2-28	Seton Hall (31.0)	BE	A	68-69	W	100%
3-3	Georgetown (169.0)	BE	H	97-73	W	100%
3-8	Marquette (58.0)	BE	N	94-70	W	100%
3-9	Butler (41.0)	BE	N	87-68	W	100%
3-10	Providence (32.0)	BE	N	76-66	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Villanova's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Villanova's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Villanova.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Villanova	BE	26.47	26.47	90.00	90.00	21.18	21.18
Providence	BE	5.34	5.34	64.52	64.52	1.55	1.55
Butler	BE	5.29	5.29	63.33	63.33	1.41	1.41
Marquette	BE	5.28	5.28	65.52	65.52	1.64	1.64
Xavier	BE	3.95	3.95	90.32	90.32	3.19	3.19
St. John's	BE	3.93	3.93	46.67	46.67	-0.26	-0.26
Creighton	BE	3.89	3.89	65.52	65.52	1.21	1.21
Seton Hall	BE	3.88	3.88	70.00	70.00	1.55	1.55
DePaul	BE	3.88	3.88	37.93	37.93	-0.94	-0.94
Georgetown	BE	3.85	3.85	53.57	53.57	0.28	0.28
Penn	Ivy	1.62	1.62	76.67	76.67	0.86	0.86
Saint Joseph's	A10	1.61	1.61	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
Temple	Amer	1.59	1.59	54.84	54.84	0.15	0.15
La Salle	A10	1.56	1.56	41.94	41.94	-0.25	-0.25
Connecticut	Amer	1.54	1.54	45.16	45.16	-0.15	-0.15
Columbia	Ivy	1.54	1.54	28.00	28.00	-0.68	-0.68
Gonzaga	WCC	1.52	1.52	90.91	90.91	1.24	1.24
Northern Iowa	MVC	1.52	1.52	48.28	48.28	-0.05	-0.05
Western Kentucky	CUSA	1.50	1.50	71.88	71.88	0.65	0.65
Lafayette	Pat	1.49	1.49	31.03	31.03	-0.57	-0.57
Nicholls St.	Slnd	1.49	1.49	62.96	62.96	0.39	0.39
Hofstra	CAA	1.47	1.47	62.07	62.07	0.35	0.35
Tennessee	SEC	1.47	1.47	78.12	78.12	0.83	0.83
Princeton	Ivy	0.22	0.22	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.20	0.20	78.12	78.12	0.11	0.11
Saint Louis	A10	0.20	0.20	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	Amer	0.18	0.18	78.12	78.12	0.10	0.10
Purdue	B10	0.18	0.18	82.35	82.35	0.12	0.12
Massachusetts	A10	0.18	0.18	39.39	39.39	-0.04	-0.04
Yale	Ivy	0.18	0.18	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.17	0.17	38.46	38.46	-0.04	-0.04
VCU	A10	0.16	0.16	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.16	0.16	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.15	0.15	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
American	Pat	0.14	0.14	20.00	20.00	-0.09	-0.09
Stony Brook	AE	0.14	0.14	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
UCF	Amer	0.14	0.14	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Cincinnati	Amer	0.14	0.14	88.24	88.24	0.10	0.10
Georgia	SEC	0.14	0.14	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.14	0.14	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Rider	MAAC	0.13	0.13	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
Houston	Amer	0.13	0.13	78.79	78.79	0.08	0.08
Cornell	Ivy	0.13	0.13	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.12	0.12	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.12	0.12	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Tulane	Amer	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.12	0.12	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.12	0.12	10.71	10.71	-0.09	-0.09
Monmouth	MAAC	0.12	0.12	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
George Mason	A10	0.12	0.12	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.12	0.12	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
SMU	Amer	0.12	0.12	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.11	0.11	20.00	20.00	-0.07	-0.07
George Washington	A10	0.11	0.11	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.11	0.11	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Morehead St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	22.22	22.22	-0.06	-0.06
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.10	0.10	23.08	23.08	-0.06	-0.06
Army	Pat	0.10	0.10	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Navy	Pat	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Maine	AE	0.10	0.10	13.33	13.33	-0.07	-0.07
New Orleans	Slnd	0.10	0.10	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.10	9.68	9.68	-0.08	-0.08
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.10	0.10	16.67	16.67	-0.06	-0.06
Towson	CAA	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.09	0.09	73.53	73.53	0.04	0.04
Richmond	A10	0.09	0.09	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.09	0.09	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Dayton	A10	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	WAC	0.09	0.09	3.33	3.33	-0.09	-0.09
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.09	0.09	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Auburn	SEC	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.09	0.09	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Tulsa	Amer	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.09	0.09	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
LSU	SEC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.09	0.09	24.14	24.14	-0.05	-0.05
Arizona St.	P12	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.09	0.09	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Furman	SC	0.09	0.09	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.09	0.09	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Texas	B12	0.09	0.09	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.09	0.09	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Washington	P12	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.07	0.07	84.38	84.38	0.05	0.05
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.07	0.07	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Boston University	Pat	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	15.62	15.62	-0.05	-0.05
Holy Cross	Pat	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Syracuse	ACC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
UT Arlington	SB	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
North Texas	CUSA	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	6.67	6.67	-0.06	-0.06
Manhattan	MAAC	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
NJIT	ASun	0.07	0.07	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.07	0.07	87.88	87.88	0.05	0.05
Oregon	P12	0.07	0.07	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
North Dakota	BSky	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
East Carolina	Amer	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.07	0.07	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	Amer	0.07	0.07	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Vermont	AE	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Missouri	SEC	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.07	0.07	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Maryland	B10	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.07	0.07	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.07	0.07	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
BYU	WCC	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.05	0.05	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	8.00	8.00	-0.04	-0.04
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	CAA	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Elon	CAA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.05	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Loyola MD	Pat	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.05	0.05	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	ACC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Davidson	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Rutgers	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Mercer	SC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	CUSA	0.04	0.04	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado	P12	0.04	0.04	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.04	0.04	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.04	0.04	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.04	0.04	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.04	0.04	76.67	76.67	0.02	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.04	0.04	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.04	0.04	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.04	0.04	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Pacific	WCC	0.04	0.04	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.04	0.04	16.13	16.13	-0.03	-0.03
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.04	0.04	84.85	84.85	0.03	0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.04	0.04	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.04	0.04	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Albany	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Idaho	BSky	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
UMBC	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
UNLV	MWC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.02	0.02	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.02	0.02	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.02	0.02	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
High Point	BSth	0.02	0.02	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.02	0.02	17.24	17.24	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
IUPUI	Horz	0.02	0.02	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.02	0.02	44.12	44.12	-0.00	-0.00
Utah St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00