Villanova

Conference:	BE
Expected RPI:	52.0
Current RPI:	52
Expected SOS:	22
Current SOS:	22
Current Record:	19-13
Expected Record:	19-13
Current Conf Record:	11-9
Expected Conf Record:	11-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-1
Current OOC Record:	8-4
Expected OOC Record:	8-4
Expected OOC RPI:	95
Expected OOC SOS:	157

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
19-13	52.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Villanova.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Marshall (208.0)	CUSA	H	80-68	W	100%
11-15	Purdue (136.0)	B10	N	81-89	W	100%
11-16	Alabama (60.0)	SEC	N	55-77	L	0%
11-20	Columbia (273.0)	Ivy	H	57-75	L	0%
11-25	La Salle (46.0)	A10	A	77-74	L	0%
12-1	Vanderbilt (120.0)	SEC	A	52-62	W	100%
12-5	Temple (42.0)	A10	H	61-76	L	0%
12-8	Pennsylvania (280.0)	Ivy	A	55-68	W	100%
12-11	Saint Joseph's (82.0)	A10	H	65-61	W	100%
12-16	Delaware (141.0)	CAA	H	75-65	W	100%
12-22	Monmouth (282.0)	NEC	A	56-83	W	100%
12-28	NJ Inst of Technology (300.0)	GWC	H	70-60	W	100%
1-2	St. John's (96.0)	BE	H	98-86	W	100%
1-9	South Florida (156.0)	BE	A	53-61	W	100%
1-12	Syracuse (14.0)	BE	A	72-61	L	0%
1-16	Pittsburgh (44.0)	BE	H	43-58	L	0%
1-19	Providence (91.0)	BE	A	69-66	L	0%
1-22	Louisville (3.0)	BE	H	73-64	W	100%
1-26	Syracuse (14.0)	BE	H	75-71	W	100%
1-30	Notre Dame (35.0)	BE	A	65-60	L	0%
2-3	Providence (91.0)	BE	H	52-55	L	0%
2-5	DePaul (204.0)	BE	A	71-94	W	100%
2-9	South Florida (156.0)	BE	H	68-40	W	100%
2-12	Cincinnati (50.0)	BE	A	68-50	L	0%
2-16	Connecticut (49.0)	BE	A	61-70	W	100%
2-18	Rutgers (109.0)	BE	H	71-63	W	100%
2-23	Marquette (13.0)	BE	H	60-56	W	100%
2-25	Seton Hall (138.0)	BE	A	66-65	L	0%
3-3	Pittsburgh (44.0)	BE	A	73-64	L	0%
3-6	Georgetown (11.0)	BE	H	67-57	W	100%
3-13	St. John's (96.0)	BE	A	53-66	W	100%
3-14	Louisville (3.0)	BE	N	74-55	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Villanova's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Villanova's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Villanova.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Villanova	BE	26.09	26.09	59.59	59.59	5.00	5.00
Syracuse	BE	3.88	3.88	75.76	75.76	2.00	2.00
Louisville	BE	3.78	3.78	87.50	87.50	2.83	2.83
Providence	BE	3.71	3.71	51.72	51.72	0.13	0.13
Pittsburgh	BE	3.70	3.70	73.33	73.33	1.73	1.73
St. John's	BE	3.69	3.69	55.17	55.17	0.38	0.38
South Florida	BE	3.68	3.68	41.38	41.38	-0.63	-0.63
Notre Dame	BE	2.34	2.34	72.73	72.73	1.06	1.06
Seton Hall	BE	2.30	2.30	43.75	43.75	-0.29	-0.29
Cincinnati	BE	2.27	2.27	65.62	65.62	0.71	0.71
Georgetown	BE	2.24	2.24	83.33	83.33	1.49	1.49
DePaul	BE	2.20	2.20	35.48	35.48	-0.64	-0.64
Marquette	BE	2.20	2.20	76.67	76.67	1.17	1.17
Rutgers	BE	2.19	2.19	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Connecticut	BE	2.17	2.17	68.97	68.97	0.82	0.82
Pennsylvania	Ivy	1.78	1.78	30.00	30.00	-0.71	-0.71
Delaware	CAA	1.71	1.71	59.38	59.38	0.32	0.32
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	1.71	1.71	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Temple	A10	1.71	1.71	70.97	70.97	0.72	0.72
Saint Joseph's	A10	1.66	1.66	60.00	60.00	0.33	0.33
La Salle	A10	1.66	1.66	68.97	68.97	0.63	0.63
Monmouth	NEC	1.63	1.63	33.33	33.33	-0.54	-0.54
Columbia	Ivy	1.61	1.61	36.00	36.00	-0.45	-0.45
Alabama	SEC	1.61	1.61	61.29	61.29	0.36	0.36
Vanderbilt	SEC	1.59	1.59	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Marshall	CUSA	1.59	1.59	40.00	40.00	-0.32	-0.32
Purdue	B10	1.59	1.59	48.39	48.39	-0.05	-0.05
Fordham	A10	0.28	0.28	22.58	22.58	-0.15	-0.15
Kentucky	SEC	0.19	0.19	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Brown	Ivy	0.18	0.18	44.44	44.44	-0.02	-0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.18	0.18	34.38	34.38	-0.06	-0.06
Princeton	Ivy	0.18	0.18	59.26	59.26	0.03	0.03
Butler	A10	0.18	0.18	75.76	75.76	0.09	0.09
Xavier	A10	0.17	0.17	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.17	0.17	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Harvard	Ivy	0.16	0.16	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Central Florida	CUSA	0.15	0.15	62.07	62.07	0.04	0.04
Massachusetts	A10	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Penn St.	B10	0.15	0.15	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
George Washington	A10	0.15	0.15	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.15	0.15	27.59	27.59	-0.07	-0.07
Duquesne	A10	0.15	0.15	26.67	26.67	-0.07	-0.07
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.15	0.15	31.25	31.25	-0.06	-0.06
Hofstra	CAA	0.15	0.15	19.35	19.35	-0.09	-0.09
Tennessee	SEC	0.15	0.15	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Wagner	NEC	0.14	0.14	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.14	0.14	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Yale	Ivy	0.14	0.14	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.13	0.13	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.13	0.13	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Holy Cross	Pat	0.13	0.13	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.13	0.13	76.47	76.47	0.07	0.07
Fairfield	MAAC	0.13	0.13	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.12	0.12	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.12	0.12	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.12	0.12	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.12	0.12	28.12	28.12	-0.05	-0.05
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.11	0.11	29.63	29.63	-0.05	-0.05
Chicago St.	GWC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Lafayette	Pat	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.10	0.10	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.10	0.10	7.14	7.14	-0.09	-0.09
Rider	MAAC	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.10	0.10	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Michigan	B10	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Mississippi	SEC	0.10	0.10	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.10	0.10	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Towson	CAA	0.10	0.10	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Memphis	CUSA	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.07	0.07
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.09	0.09	84.38	84.38	0.06	0.06
Missouri	SEC	0.09	0.09	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.09	0.09	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.08	0.08	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Bucknell	Pat	0.08	0.08	84.38	84.38	0.06	0.06
American	Pat	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
San Francisco	WCC	0.08	0.08	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.08	0.08	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Manhattan	MAAC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Bryant	NEC	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Bowling Green	MAC	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.07	0.07	23.33	23.33	-0.04	-0.04
Tulane	CUSA	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.07	0.07	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
Howard	MEAC	0.07	0.07	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
Indiana	B10	0.07	0.07	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Lehigh	Pat	0.07	0.07	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Northeastern	CAA	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.07	0.07	17.24	17.24	-0.05	-0.05
Oakland	Sum	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.07	0.07	10.00	10.00	-0.06	-0.06
William & Mary	CAA	0.07	0.07	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.07	0.07	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.07	0.07	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.07	0.07	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	ind	0.06	0.06	18.18	18.18	-0.04	-0.04
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.06	35.71	35.71	-0.02	-0.02
Army	Pat	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
New Hampshire	AE	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.05	6.90	6.90	-0.04	-0.04
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.05	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.05	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Florida International	SB	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.04	0.04	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.04	0.04	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Elon	SC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Boston University	AE	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	67.86	67.86	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Southern California	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.02	0.02	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.02	0.02	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.02	0.02	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Mercer	ASun	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.02	0.02	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.02	0.02	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.02	0.02	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	SC	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Maine	AE	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.02	0.02	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00