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Through games of Nov 27, 2014.


Villanova

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:27.3
Current RPI:21
Expected SOS:59
Current SOS:88
Current Record:5-0
Expected Record:24-7
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:5-0
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:38
Expected OOC SOS:205



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
30-13.50.06%
29-24.50.41%
28-36.11.78%
27-48.55.15%
26-511.810.04%
25-616.115.39%
24-721.718.83%
23-828.218.00%
22-936.414.19%
21-1046.28.87%
20-1157.64.57%
19-1269.71.95%
18-1382.50.65%
17-1495.80.08%
16-1598.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Villanova.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Lehigh (212.0)PatN66-77W100%0.0
11-17Maryland Eastern Shore (321.6)MEACH81-44W100%0.0
11-20Bucknell (233.1)PatH72-65W100%0.0
11-24VCU (24.0)A10N53-77W100%0.0
11-25Michigan (42.6)B10N55-60W100%0.0
11-30Delaware (312.4)CAAH0-099%28.8
12-3La Salle (99.2)A10A0-072%7.1
12-6Saint Joseph's (205.7)A10H0-096%21.1
12-9Illinois (44.9)B10N0-056%1.9
12-14Temple (136.3)AmerH0-091%16.4
12-20Syracuse (34.5)ACCH0-062%3.8
12-23NJIT (291.7)indH0-099%27.2
12-31Butler (32.4)BEH0-064%4.3
1-3Seton Hall (47.9)BEA0-053%1.0
1-6St. John's (84.3)BEA0-060%3.0
1-10DePaul (222.3)BEH0-096%21.3
1-14Xavier (11.5)BEH0-056%1.9
1-17Penn (317.0)IvyA0-096%20.4
1-19Georgetown (37.0)BEA0-049%-0.4
1-25Creighton (67.3)BEH0-078%9.1
1-31DePaul (222.3)BEA0-088%14.1
2-4Marquette (150.0)BEH0-090%15.6
2-7Georgetown (37.0)BEH0-072%6.8
2-11Providence (33.7)BEA0-047%-0.8
2-14Butler (32.4)BEA0-040%-2.9
2-16Seton Hall (47.9)BEH0-075%8.2
2-21Marquette (150.0)BEA0-076%8.4
2-24Providence (33.7)BEH0-070%6.4
2-28Xavier (11.5)BEA0-033%-5.3
3-3Creighton (67.3)BEA0-056%1.9
3-7St. John's (84.3)BEH0-080%10.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Villanova's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Villanova's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Villanova.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VillanovaBE29.8026.35100.0075.4429.8013.41
St. John'sBE0.004.16100.0058.360.000.70
DePaulBE1.004.1366.6726.800.33-1.92
MarquetteBE0.004.1360.0041.760.00-0.68
ProvidenceBE0.004.11100.0067.630.001.45
ButlerBE0.004.1180.0073.090.001.90
CreightonBE0.004.11100.0063.530.001.11
Seton HallBE0.004.11100.0065.080.001.24
XavierBE0.004.11100.0080.450.002.50
GeorgetownBE0.004.1080.0065.190.001.25
NJITind0.001.7820.0031.32-0.00-0.66
MichiganB1010.831.75100.0068.4210.830.65
La SalleA100.001.75100.0057.910.000.28
Saint Joseph'sA100.001.7550.0037.710.00-0.43
BucknellPat11.961.7240.0036.99-2.39-0.45
TempleAmer0.001.7260.0051.870.000.06
LehighPat10.001.7225.0043.37-5.00-0.23
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC11.831.7016.6731.89-7.89-0.62
SyracuseACC0.001.7080.0068.960.000.64
PennIvy0.001.690.0024.23-0.00-0.87
VCUA1010.711.69100.0075.8310.710.87
IllinoisB100.001.67100.0068.520.000.62
DelawareCAA0.001.640.0020.20-0.00-0.98
NavyPat0.000.2220.0030.56-0.00-0.08
Loyola MDPat0.000.2240.0031.76-0.00-0.08
FordhamA100.000.220.0026.23-0.00-0.10
George WashingtonA100.000.2275.0069.240.000.08
AmericanPat0.000.1966.6759.540.000.04
MassachusettsA100.000.1983.3366.830.000.06
Rhode IslandA100.000.1966.6756.430.000.02
LafayettePat0.000.1760.0061.400.000.04
MaineAE0.000.170.0019.84-0.00-0.10
WisconsinB100.000.17100.0087.590.000.13
Holy CrossPat0.000.17100.0064.010.000.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.170.0044.60-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1725.0039.20-0.00-0.04
TowsonCAA0.000.1780.0057.880.000.03
IndianaB100.000.1780.0056.380.000.02
ColgatePat0.000.1620.0039.05-0.00-0.04
NorthwesternB100.000.1683.3338.760.00-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.000.1675.0052.070.000.01
AlbanyAE0.000.1450.0063.340.000.04
YaleIvy0.000.1480.0070.930.000.06
Ohio St.B100.000.14100.0074.590.000.07
ArmyPat0.000.14100.0069.590.000.05
DuquesneA100.000.14100.0053.990.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1466.6741.200.00-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1440.0054.55-0.000.01
BrownIvy0.000.1416.6730.56-0.00-0.05
RutgersB100.000.1450.0024.450.00-0.07
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1450.0064.460.000.04
NebraskaB100.000.1475.0052.330.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.13100.0062.000.000.03
DukeACC0.000.13100.0083.320.000.09
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.120.0052.73-0.000.01
ColumbiaIvy1.000.1175.0065.610.500.04
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1125.0053.47-0.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.1116.6745.35-0.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1133.3338.66-0.00-0.03
MinnesotaB100.000.1150.0055.020.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1116.6739.60-0.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.110.0018.96-0.00-0.07
DrexelCAA0.000.1120.0036.57-0.00-0.03
Michigan St.B100.000.1180.0074.350.000.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.11100.0071.260.000.05
TulaneAmer0.000.1166.6739.850.00-0.02
OklahomaB120.000.1180.0070.540.000.04
DaytonA100.000.1175.0071.300.000.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1133.3329.78-0.00-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.550.1125.0036.14-0.77-0.03
George MasonA100.000.1120.0022.17-0.00-0.06
RichmondA100.000.1150.0063.970.000.03
Saint LouisA100.000.1175.0046.860.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.1175.0055.470.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.1166.6764.030.000.03
TulsaAmer0.000.1160.0055.660.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.10100.0078.880.000.06
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1040.0038.03-0.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.090.0036.65-0.00-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.710.0925.0045.71-0.36-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.090.0027.48-0.00-0.04
Arizona St.P120.000.0960.0053.400.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0933.3347.83-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0833.3330.24-0.00-0.03
HowardMEAC0.000.0825.0045.04-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0842.8641.73-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0875.0044.850.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0875.0062.620.000.02
StanfordP120.000.0880.0071.340.000.04
MaristMAAC0.830.0820.0034.06-0.50-0.03
HofstraCAA0.000.0860.0068.830.000.03
MissouriSEC0.000.0840.0036.39-0.00-0.02
Penn St.B100.000.0883.3348.340.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.0883.3368.400.000.03
BinghamtonAE0.000.080.0023.09-0.00-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.080.0028.02-0.00-0.04
IowaB100.000.0866.6765.220.000.02
OregonP122.250.0860.0063.290.450.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0860.0040.420.00-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0820.0040.88-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0850.0065.590.000.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0880.0075.550.000.04
North CarolinaACC0.000.0880.0074.090.000.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.080.0067.79-0.000.03
TennesseeSEC1.000.0866.6746.480.33-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.08100.0073.330.000.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.0840.0038.97-0.00-0.02
Notre DameACC0.000.0883.3369.110.000.03
Virginia TechACC0.710.0860.0035.980.14-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0660.0041.750.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0032.17-0.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0660.0067.380.000.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0660.0062.400.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0666.6773.130.000.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0650.0050.720.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0633.3351.25-0.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0620.0037.69-0.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0625.0046.52-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC1.000.0640.0043.47-0.20-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0633.3352.29-0.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0650.0056.120.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0680.0058.550.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0660.0037.710.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0640.0053.54-0.000.00
ColoradoP120.000.0675.0060.510.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0625.0023.91-0.00-0.03
ElonCAA0.000.0640.0039.26-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0680.0072.320.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0620.0031.46-0.00-0.02
IUPUISum0.000.0640.0030.22-0.00-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0680.0046.880.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0620.0034.53-0.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0633.3367.57-0.000.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0680.0067.100.000.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0620.0050.32-0.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0650.0047.680.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0650.0042.750.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0660.0050.240.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0625.0068.20-0.000.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0666.6747.100.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0675.0055.000.000.01
MarylandB100.000.05100.0071.310.000.02
DetroitHorz1.960.0560.0059.160.390.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0540.0054.85-0.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0540.0058.41-0.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0560.0056.890.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0550.0054.380.000.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0525.0043.15-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.05100.0083.180.000.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.050.0022.17-0.00-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.050.0035.88-0.00-0.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0575.0053.040.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0575.0039.180.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.050.0038.79-0.00-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0550.0032.470.00-0.02
ToledoMAC1.830.0540.0060.45-0.370.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0566.6751.440.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0575.0069.780.000.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0525.0035.86-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.05100.0089.470.000.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0580.0072.400.000.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0580.0074.880.000.03
PittsburghACC0.000.0560.0057.910.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.050.0036.81-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0560.0068.620.000.02
UCFAmer0.000.0566.6741.780.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.030.0030.72-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0040.20-0.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC1.000.0350.0052.810.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0350.0052.540.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0053.730.000.00
WagnerNEC0.000.030.0044.93-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0076.220.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0333.3334.34-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0320.0038.45-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0052.530.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0320.0029.36-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0030.59-0.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0320.0039.02-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0350.0060.380.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0340.0032.81-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0350.0051.380.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0088.610.000.02
SienaMAAC0.000.0333.3361.73-0.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0350.0064.890.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0340.0045.07-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0031.24-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0380.0070.550.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0050.620.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0325.0049.53-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0366.6758.150.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0019.02-0.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0366.6760.700.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0078.390.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0333.3360.46-0.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0325.0047.85-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0028.59-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0064.840.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0077.870.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0340.0033.19-0.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0051.700.000.00