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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Villanova

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:1.9
Current RPI:2
Expected SOS:20
Current SOS:39
Current Record:18-1
Expected Record:28-3
Current Conf Record:5-1
Expected Conf Record:15-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:13-0
Expected OOC Record:13-0
Expected OOC RPI:2
Expected OOC SOS:50



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
30-11.09.55%
29-21.226.63%
28-31.631.55%
27-42.420.37%
26-53.79.11%
25-65.52.23%
24-78.10.50%
23-810.80.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Villanova.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Columbia (278.6)IvyH75-60W100%0.0
11-14Nicholls St. (200.2)SlndH113-77W100%0.0
11-17Lafayette (311.6)PatN104-57W100%0.0
11-22Western Kentucky (45.3)CUSAN66-58W100%0.0
11-23Tennessee (24.1)SECN85-76W100%0.0
11-24Northern Iowa (120.5)MVCN50-64W100%0.0
11-29Penn (172.9)IvyH90-62W100%0.0
12-2Saint Joseph's (150.4)A10A53-94W100%0.0
12-5Gonzaga (33.3)WCCN72-88W100%0.0
12-10La Salle (182.0)A10H77-68W100%0.0
12-13Temple (61.5)AmerA67-87W100%0.0
12-22Hofstra (105.8)CAAN71-95W100%0.0
12-27DePaul (187.0)BEA85-103W100%0.0
12-30Butler (37.4)BEA101-93L0%0.0
1-6Marquette (52.5)BEH100-90W100%0.0
1-10Xavier (6.3)BEH89-65W100%0.0
1-13St. John's (95.3)BEA71-78W100%0.0
1-17Georgetown (142.9)BEA56-88W100%0.0
1-20Connecticut (102.6)AmerA61-81W100%0.0
1-23Providence (44.5)BEH0-093%16.1
1-28Marquette (52.5)BEA0-078%8.6
2-1Creighton (29.6)BEH0-083%10.4
2-4Seton Hall (25.9)BEH0-088%13.0
2-7St. John's (95.3)BEH0-095%18.2
2-10Butler (37.4)BEH0-089%13.8
2-14Providence (44.5)BEA0-081%9.7
2-17Xavier (6.3)BEA0-062%3.2
2-21DePaul (187.0)BEH0-098%22.9
2-24Creighton (29.6)BEA0-064%4.0
2-28Seton Hall (25.9)BEA0-072%6.6
3-3Georgetown (142.9)BEH0-097%21.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Villanova's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Villanova's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Villanova.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VillanovaBE26.3526.3296.7792.2324.6522.23
XavierBE2.984.1190.0084.272.382.82
St. John'sBE2.984.1050.0044.990.00-0.41
CreightonBE0.334.1075.0073.850.161.96
ButlerBE2.904.0865.0063.600.871.11
ProvidenceBE0.334.0870.0063.730.131.12
Seton HallBE0.334.0875.0071.210.171.73
DePaulBE2.964.0844.4436.69-0.33-1.08
MarquetteBE2.904.0872.2264.091.291.15
GeorgetownBE2.974.0772.2257.971.320.65
PennIvy2.931.7868.7564.961.100.53
Saint Joseph'sA102.771.7752.9453.420.160.12
TempleAmer2.851.7555.5653.520.320.12
La SalleA102.781.7242.1144.11-0.44-0.20
ConnecticutAmer2.721.7055.5648.970.30-0.04
ColumbiaIvy2.781.6921.4333.54-1.59-0.56
GonzagaWCC2.631.6785.0086.041.841.20
Northern IowaMVC2.691.6647.0651.94-0.160.06
Western KentuckyCUSA2.711.6472.2273.251.210.76
LafayettePat2.711.6423.5328.48-1.43-0.71
Nicholls St.Slnd2.701.6453.3353.360.180.11
HofstraCAA2.631.6161.1161.620.580.37
TennesseeSEC2.631.6176.4771.311.390.69
PrincetonIvy0.370.2352.9460.220.020.05
Saint LouisA100.130.1847.3746.92-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.070.1883.3381.430.040.12
YaleIvy0.000.1741.1847.560.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.1750.0045.140.00-0.02
PurdueB100.270.1690.4888.370.220.12
UCFAmer0.210.1668.4260.860.080.03
Wichita St.Amer0.140.1678.9577.380.080.09
WisconsinB100.270.1650.0046.300.00-0.01
VCUA100.210.1660.0059.700.040.03
CincinnatiAmer0.130.1689.4785.550.100.11
MassachusettsA100.140.1650.0046.810.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.240.1533.3333.23-0.08-0.05
HarvardIvy0.070.1437.5046.69-0.02-0.01
DrexelCAA0.280.1430.0030.99-0.11-0.05
Stony BrookAE0.230.1436.8445.21-0.06-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.140.1330.0033.47-0.06-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.140.1366.6755.940.050.02
MonmouthMAAC0.220.1327.7841.03-0.10-0.02
NorthwesternB100.140.1355.0050.330.010.00
RiderMAAC0.130.1365.0065.320.040.04
George WashingtonA100.210.1345.0043.48-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.070.1378.9572.990.040.06
DartmouthIvy0.000.1221.4326.350.00-0.06
ArmyPat0.230.1261.1160.440.050.02
NavyPat0.240.1260.0055.160.050.01
ColgatePat0.230.1150.0051.030.000.00
MaineAE0.230.1110.5314.83-0.18-0.08
New OrleansSlnd0.070.1137.5045.24-0.02-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.115.8819.35-0.07-0.07
AmericanPat0.140.1126.3228.11-0.07-0.05
BucknellPat0.210.1161.9068.020.050.04
TulaneAmer0.220.1163.1657.890.060.02
HowardMEAC0.210.1110.5327.29-0.17-0.05
TowsonCAA0.210.1163.1665.970.060.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.140.1110.5316.75-0.11-0.07
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.1115.7920.91-0.05-0.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.140.1142.1144.96-0.02-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.150.1165.0054.670.050.01
George MasonA100.150.1145.0041.30-0.01-0.02
SMUAmer0.210.1170.0070.570.080.04
DaytonA100.220.1147.3750.94-0.010.00
RichmondA100.140.1131.5834.36-0.05-0.03
AuburnSEC0.280.1189.4777.000.220.06
Central ConnecticutNEC0.140.1152.3848.530.01-0.00
NebraskaB100.070.1166.6759.820.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.140.1142.1146.09-0.02-0.01
Arizona St.P120.130.1178.9576.130.080.06
BaylorB120.060.1161.1156.090.010.01
FordhamA100.140.1131.5829.06-0.05-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.130.1168.4263.650.050.03
PortlandWCC0.130.1127.7827.28-0.06-0.05
TulsaAmer0.140.1155.0053.320.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.070.1136.8435.57-0.02-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.130.1121.0523.51-0.08-0.06
Morehead St.OVC0.130.1023.5328.69-0.07-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.140.0844.4446.02-0.02-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.140.0870.0068.300.060.03
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0850.0053.260.000.01
Holy CrossPat0.140.0826.3230.49-0.07-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0812.5025.45-0.05-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.140.080.003.07-0.14-0.08
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0860.0062.030.010.02
North TexasCUSA0.070.0844.4446.65-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.140.089.5217.90-0.11-0.05
SyracuseACC0.140.0868.4261.230.050.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.150.080.009.09-0.15-0.07
Northern IllinoisMAC0.150.0841.1839.16-0.03-0.02
NJITASun0.070.0838.8942.61-0.02-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.140.0842.1146.00-0.02-0.01
LSUSEC0.070.0861.1153.170.020.01
MissouriSEC0.140.0866.6763.200.050.02
Old DominionCUSA0.140.0878.9576.750.080.04
South CarolinaSEC0.140.0861.1151.910.030.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.130.0816.6724.91-0.09-0.04
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0850.0050.860.000.00
Michigan St.B100.140.0885.0083.200.100.05
North DakotaBSky0.060.0829.4134.76-0.03-0.02
OregonP120.140.0865.0063.850.040.02
St. BonaventureA100.070.0866.6768.730.020.03
BelmontOVC0.070.0871.4374.660.030.04
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0842.1132.47-0.01-0.03
FurmanSC0.140.0866.6768.540.050.03
MemphisAmer0.140.0865.0058.540.040.01
Ohio St.B100.130.0880.9576.520.080.04
TexasB120.130.0863.1657.630.030.01
WashingtonP120.060.0870.0061.440.030.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.160.0635.0031.83-0.05-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0645.0049.29-0.01-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0628.5731.26-0.04-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.067.1414.82-0.07-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0652.9455.030.000.01
BradleyMVC0.070.0665.0057.880.020.01
DrakeMVC0.070.0655.0048.980.01-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0652.6347.520.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0647.3746.090.00-0.00
LehighPat0.070.0638.8944.75-0.02-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0678.9574.190.040.03
Loyola MDPat0.070.0622.2228.66-0.04-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.150.0655.0052.470.010.00
ValparaisoMVC0.070.0647.3748.77-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.160.0627.7827.10-0.07-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.140.067.6920.09-0.12-0.03
Iowa St.B120.070.0661.1147.220.02-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.150.0680.0075.060.090.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.150.0665.0056.340.040.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0666.6765.640.020.02
DelawareCAA0.070.0647.3743.02-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.070.0652.6351.080.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0633.3333.77-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.070.0625.0028.24-0.03-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0655.5656.740.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.070.0663.1663.220.020.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0622.2227.330.00-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.070.0664.7159.990.020.01
ClemsonACC0.140.0584.2173.240.090.03
ToledoMAC0.150.0566.6767.700.050.02
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0523.5325.64-0.04-0.03
DukeACC0.000.0589.4785.210.000.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0529.4133.93-0.03-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0570.0071.230.030.02
IllinoisB100.070.0547.3744.27-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.070.0560.0064.110.010.02
KentuckySEC0.070.0573.6867.970.030.02
Miami OHMAC0.070.0547.0641.41-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0572.2274.710.030.03
MississippiSEC0.000.0552.6345.860.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.070.0563.1661.020.020.01
Oregon St.P120.070.0557.8950.840.010.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0536.8432.760.00-0.02
UABCUSA0.070.0561.1164.130.020.02
UCLAP120.000.0565.0062.050.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0511.1118.000.00-0.03
VermontAE0.070.0575.0077.850.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.140.0568.4264.200.050.02
DavidsonA100.000.0558.8261.450.000.01
DuquesneA100.070.0570.0058.090.030.01
FloridaSEC0.060.0573.6871.560.030.02
MercerSC0.140.0544.4454.86-0.020.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0535.0026.120.00-0.03
BYUWCC0.000.0580.9576.240.000.03
ColoradoP120.060.0560.0053.720.010.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0577.7879.150.030.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0523.5332.570.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.060.0520.0041.73-0.04-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0557.8950.710.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.060.0544.4444.92-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0578.9569.790.000.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0527.7829.10-0.03-0.02
MarylandB100.060.0570.0065.250.030.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0563.6457.630.000.01
PacificWCC0.060.0545.0044.47-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.060.0510.5318.34-0.05-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.060.0558.8263.210.010.01
RutgersB100.000.0555.0046.690.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0590.4888.960.050.04
San DiegoWCC0.000.0563.1657.540.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0550.0048.730.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.130.0533.3332.94-0.04-0.02
Texas TechB120.000.0578.9571.810.000.02
UtahP120.060.0563.1659.710.020.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0564.7164.570.000.02
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0542.8635.24-0.01-0.02
AlbanyAE0.090.0371.4370.240.040.01
LongwoodBSth0.090.0316.6716.16-0.06-0.02
Penn St.B100.090.0361.9055.760.020.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0352.9452.650.000.00
IdahoBSky0.080.0364.7166.850.020.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0350.0054.890.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0383.3381.370.050.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0343.7549.130.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.080.0357.8954.500.010.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0380.0078.850.050.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.037.6923.28-0.07-0.02
UMBCAE0.080.0355.5655.540.010.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0345.0045.03-0.01-0.00
UNLVMWC0.070.0373.6865.260.030.01
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0338.8944.08-0.02-0.00
SienaMAAC0.070.0328.5729.94-0.03-0.01
UMKCWAC0.080.0321.0524.75-0.04-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0368.4258.980.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0344.4446.00-0.01-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0331.5832.72-0.03-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0335.2935.540.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0337.5037.680.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.070.0352.6343.110.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.070.0343.7549.23-0.01-0.00
LipscombASun0.070.0352.9459.340.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0352.6355.290.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0372.2258.920.000.00
OhioMAC0.070.0347.0648.41-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0311.1117.680.00-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0316.6724.45-0.05-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0341.1838.47-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0368.4263.960.030.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0333.3334.100.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0341.1839.650.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0342.1140.46-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.070.0347.3741.44-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.070.0368.4269.250.030.01
ArizonaP120.070.0380.0078.940.040.02
IUPUIHorz0.060.0327.7829.83-0.03-0.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0377.7870.480.040.01
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0358.8262.820.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.070.0350.0045.870.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0321.0544.26-0.04-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.060.0345.0045.49-0.01-0.00