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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Villanova

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:5.0
Current RPI:5
Expected SOS:32
Current SOS:32
Current Record:28-4
Expected Record:28-4
Current Conf Record:16-3
Expected Conf Record:16-3
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:5-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:10-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-0
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:10
Expected OOC SOS:56



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-45.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Villanova.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Lafayette (258.0)PatH75-59W100%0.0
11-13Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECH90-59W100%0.0
11-17Towson (95.0)CAAH78-44W100%0.0
11-22Delaware (65.0)CAAH84-80W100%0.0
11-28USC (176.0)P12N79-94W100%0.0
11-29Kansas (3.0)B12N63-59W100%0.0
11-30Iowa (56.0)B10N88-83W100%0.0
12-4Penn (284.0)IvyH77-54W100%0.0
12-7Saint Joseph's (32.0)A10A68-98W100%0.0
12-15La Salle (98.0)A10H73-52W100%0.0
12-21Rider (198.0)MAACH88-67W100%0.0
12-28Syracuse (16.0)ACCA78-62L0%0.0
12-31Butler (150.0)BEA73-76W100%0.0
1-5Providence (40.0)BEH91-61W100%0.0
1-8Seton Hall (128.0)BEA67-83W100%0.0
1-11St. John's (67.0)BEA67-74W100%0.0
1-18DePaul (154.0)BEH88-62W100%0.0
1-20Creighton (10.0)BEH68-96L0%0.0
1-25Marquette (92.0)BEA85-94W100%0.0
1-27Georgetown (69.0)BEA60-65W100%0.0
2-1Temple (175.0)AmerA74-90W100%0.0
2-3Xavier (47.0)BEH81-58W100%0.0
2-7Seton Hall (128.0)BEH70-53W100%0.0
2-12DePaul (154.0)BEA62-87W100%0.0
2-16Creighton (10.0)BEA101-80L0%0.0
2-18Providence (40.0)BEA79-82W100%0.0
2-22St. John's (67.0)BEH57-54W100%0.0
2-26Butler (150.0)BEH67-48W100%0.0
3-2Marquette (92.0)BEH73-56W100%0.0
3-6Xavier (47.0)BEA70-77W100%0.0
3-8Georgetown (69.0)BEH77-59W100%0.0
3-13Seton Hall (128.0)BEN63-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Villanova's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Villanova's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Villanova.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VillanovaBE26.3126.3187.8487.8419.9119.91
Seton HallBE5.595.5951.6151.610.180.18
ProvidenceBE4.144.1471.8871.881.811.81
CreightonBE4.114.1177.4277.422.262.26
XavierBE4.094.0966.6766.671.361.36
DePaulBE4.054.0538.7138.71-0.91-0.91
St. John'sBE4.014.0166.6766.671.341.34
GeorgetownBE4.014.0158.6258.620.690.69
ButlerBE4.014.0146.4346.43-0.29-0.29
MarquetteBE3.993.9956.6756.670.530.53
Saint Joseph'sA101.711.7175.0075.000.860.86
PennIvy1.711.7129.6329.63-0.70-0.70
La SalleA101.711.7150.0050.000.000.00
TempleAmer1.661.6630.0030.00-0.67-0.67
LafayettePat1.661.6634.4834.48-0.51-0.51
TowsonCAA1.661.6670.0070.000.660.66
IowaB101.641.6463.3363.330.440.44
KansasB121.641.6475.0075.000.820.82
DelawareCAA1.611.6175.7675.760.830.83
SyracuseACC1.611.6183.8783.871.091.09
USCP121.611.6133.3333.33-0.54-0.54
RiderMAAC1.591.5946.6746.67-0.11-0.11
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.561.5651.6151.610.050.05
WagnerNEC0.230.2360.0060.000.050.05
MonmouthMAAC0.220.2234.3834.38-0.07-0.07
NJITind0.170.1736.0036.00-0.05-0.05
George WashingtonA100.170.1775.0075.000.090.09
NortheasternCAA0.170.1734.3834.38-0.05-0.05
Arizona St.P120.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
Penn St.B100.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.150.1578.7978.790.090.09
MaristMAAC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.150.1521.2121.21-0.08-0.08
St. BonaventureA100.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.140.1431.0331.03-0.05-0.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.140.1431.0331.03-0.05-0.05
PrincetonIvy0.130.1370.3770.370.050.05
YaleIvy0.130.1351.8551.850.000.00
ColgatePat0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
BucknellPat0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
Michigan St.B100.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
NorthwesternB100.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
VCUA100.120.1276.4776.470.070.07
Robert MorrisNEC0.120.1261.7661.760.030.03
Ohio St.B100.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
CaliforniaP120.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
FordhamA100.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
DaytonA100.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
DrexelCAA0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
TexasB120.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
San Diego St.MWC0.120.1287.1087.100.090.09
HofstraCAA0.120.1230.3030.30-0.05-0.05
RutgersAmer0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
Rhode IslandA100.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
ColumbiaIvy0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.100.1038.4638.46-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
BrownIvy0.100.1051.8551.850.000.00
Washington St.P120.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.100.1010.7110.71-0.08-0.08
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
ColoradoP120.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
IonaMAAC0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
SienaMAAC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.100.1021.8821.88-0.05-0.05
Iowa St.B120.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.1014.8114.81-0.07-0.07
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
CornellIvy0.080.083.703.70-0.07-0.07
LehighPat0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
LSUSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
UCFAmer0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0716.1316.13-0.05-0.05
High PointBSth0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
MinnesotaB100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
DuquesneA100.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
New HampshireAE0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0778.5778.570.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
New MexicoMWC0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
RichmondA100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
BryantNEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
BaylorB120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Texas TechB120.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
MarylandACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
VermontAE0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
HarvardIvy0.060.0686.2186.210.040.04
Holy CrossPat0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
ElonSC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
IllinoisB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
LipscombASun0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
MichiganB100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
UMBCAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
UTEPCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
SamfordSC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0514.8114.81-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
TulsaCUSA0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
MaineAE0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
AlbanyAE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
HartfordAE0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0393.1093.100.020.02
Stony BrookAE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
WashingtonP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
VirginiaACC0.020.0282.3582.350.020.02
DenverSum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0294.1294.120.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0234.6234.62-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
LibertyBSth0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01