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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Evansville

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:188.0
Current RPI:188
Expected SOS:110
Current SOS:110
Current Record:14-17
Expected Record:14-17
Current Conf Record:7-13
Expected Conf Record:7-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-5
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:81
Expected OOC SOS:51



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-17188.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Evansville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Louisville (7.0)ACCA78-47L0%0.0
11-14Alcorn St. (228.0)SWACH82-59W100%0.0
11-19Morehead St. (200.0)OVCH69-56W100%0.0
11-25Toledo (155.0)MACN83-79L0%0.0
11-26UNC Wilmington (27.0)CAAN62-65L0%0.0
11-27Middle Tennessee (34.0)CUSAN66-55L0%0.0
12-3Boise St. (72.0)MWCH72-67W100%0.0
12-6Bowling Green (225.0)MACH69-66W100%0.0
12-10Murray St. (230.0)OVCH78-46W100%0.0
12-14Norfolk St. (254.0)MEACH85-66W100%0.0
12-17Austin Peay (261.0)OVCA69-77W100%0.0
12-29Illinois St. (33.0)MVCA62-50L0%0.0
1-1Northern Iowa (163.0)MVCH70-58W100%0.0
1-4Bradley (220.0)MVCH63-74L0%0.0
1-8Drake (314.0)MVCA88-76L0%0.0
1-11Missouri St. (210.0)MVCA55-51L0%0.0
1-14Southern Illinois (145.0)MVCH61-73L0%0.0
1-17Wichita St. (32.0)MVCH65-82L0%0.0
1-21Loyola Chicago (182.0)MVCA67-61L0%0.0
1-25Northern Iowa (163.0)MVCA61-54L0%0.0
1-29Illinois St. (33.0)MVCH59-69L0%0.0
2-1Indiana St. (234.0)MVCA85-84L0%0.0
2-4Missouri St. (210.0)MVCH74-66W100%0.0
2-8Loyola Chicago (182.0)MVCH60-58W100%0.0
2-11Southern Illinois (145.0)MVCA70-75W100%0.0
2-14Drake (314.0)MVCH87-70W100%0.0
2-18Bradley (220.0)MVCA84-72L0%0.0
2-21Wichita St. (32.0)MVCA109-83L0%0.0
2-25Indiana St. (234.0)MVCH65-63W100%0.0
3-2Indiana St. (234.0)MVCN83-72W100%0.0
3-3Illinois St. (33.0)MVCN80-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Evansville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Evansville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Evansville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
EvansvilleMVC26.4926.4940.9440.94-4.80-4.80
Illinois St.MVC5.865.8679.3179.313.433.43
Indiana St.MVC5.725.7233.3333.33-1.91-1.91
Wichita St.MVC4.374.3787.1087.103.243.24
Southern IllinoisMVC4.354.3550.0050.000.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.294.2953.5753.570.310.31
BradleyMVC4.274.2733.3333.33-1.42-1.42
Missouri St.MVC4.274.2750.0050.000.000.00
DrakeMVC4.214.2118.5218.52-2.65-2.65
Northern IowaMVC4.214.2144.4444.44-0.47-0.47
Murray St.OVC1.901.9046.6746.67-0.13-0.13
ToledoMAC1.821.8248.3948.39-0.06-0.06
Bowling GreenMAC1.741.7440.0040.00-0.35-0.35
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.711.7187.5087.501.291.29
LouisvilleACC1.711.7174.1974.190.830.83
Austin PeayOVC1.691.6933.3333.33-0.56-0.56
Morehead St.OVC1.691.6944.4444.44-0.19-0.19
Norfolk St.MEAC1.691.6950.0050.000.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC1.671.6753.5753.570.120.12
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.661.6683.8783.871.131.13
Boise St.MWC1.611.6164.2964.290.460.46
Tennessee MartinOVC0.290.2961.2961.290.070.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.290.2941.9441.94-0.05-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.270.2744.4444.44-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.240.2441.3841.38-0.04-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.230.2362.5062.500.060.06
TulsaAmer0.200.2046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.190.1934.4834.48-0.06-0.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.190.1917.8617.86-0.12-0.12
South Dakota St.Sum0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.160.1667.6567.650.060.06
Western KentuckyCUSA0.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.160.166.906.90-0.14-0.14
DePaulBE0.160.1628.1228.12-0.07-0.07
Wright St.Horz0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
DelawareCAA0.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.1421.8821.88-0.08-0.08
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
BelmontOVC0.140.1477.7877.780.080.08
Tennessee St.OVC0.140.1453.5753.570.010.01
Iowa St.B120.140.1469.7069.700.050.05
Utah St.MWC0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.130.1357.1457.140.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
New MexicoMWC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
Western MichiganMAC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.130.1355.8855.880.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
TCUB120.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
XavierBE0.110.1161.7661.760.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
UMKCWAC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
Miami OHMAC0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Air ForceMWC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
George MasonA100.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
NevadaMWC0.110.1182.3582.350.070.07
OklahomaB120.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
San FranciscoWCC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
OhioMAC0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
MississippiSEC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.100.1010.3410.34-0.08-0.08
HofstraCAA0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Saint LouisA100.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
StanfordP120.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
ArkansasSEC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
PittsburghACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
BuffaloMAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
DetroitHorz0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Green BayHorz0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.060.0664.7164.710.020.02
IowaB100.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
IndianaB100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0529.4129.41-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.050.0577.1477.140.030.03
ElonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
USCP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
BucknellPat0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.020.0276.4776.470.010.01