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Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


Evansville

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:159.2
Current RPI:126
Expected SOS:96
Current SOS:89
Current Record:10-9
Expected Record:14-15
Current Conf Record:2-6
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:54
Expected OOC SOS:116



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-956.00.01%
19-1063.80.09%
18-1177.10.51%
17-1294.42.81%
16-13113.78.78%
15-14134.918.61%
14-15155.925.56%
13-16175.624.04%
12-17193.914.41%
11-18210.64.57%
10-19226.80.60%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Evansville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Arkansas St. (291.5)SBH77-63W100%0.0
11-13North Carolina Central (266.8)MEACH68-55W100%0.0
11-16Southeast Missouri St. (242.9)OVCH66-50W100%0.0
11-18Binghamton (282.6)AEH66-61W100%0.0
11-21Fresno St. (103.2)MWCN57-59W100%0.0
11-22Louisiana Tech (159.8)CUSAN61-63L0%0.0
11-29New Mexico (157.2)MWCA78-59L0%0.0
12-5Bowling Green (189.0)MACA76-91W100%0.0
12-9Canisius (125.5)MAACH65-58W100%0.0
12-16Austin Peay (213.9)OVCH78-74W100%0.0
12-20Duke (3.0)ACCA104-40L0%0.0
12-23Illinois St. (119.2)MVCH66-72L0%0.0
12-30Loyola Chicago (58.2)MVCA66-59L0%0.0
1-3Southern Illinois (126.1)MVCA65-63L0%0.0
1-6Bradley (123.5)MVCH68-44W100%0.0
1-10Missouri St. (57.8)MVCH64-55W100%0.0
1-13Drake (161.0)MVCA81-65L0%0.0
1-17Indiana St. (140.4)MVCH66-71L0%0.0
1-20Bradley (123.5)MVCA66-53L0%0.0
1-24Valparaiso (151.6)MVCA0-030%-5.8
1-27Drake (161.0)MVCH0-062%3.4
1-31Northern Iowa (120.9)MVCH0-042%-2.3
2-3Illinois St. (119.2)MVCA0-034%-4.7
2-7Valparaiso (151.6)MVCH0-052%0.6
2-10Missouri St. (57.8)MVCA0-017%-10.4
2-13Northern Iowa (120.9)MVCA0-022%-8.7
2-18Loyola Chicago (58.2)MVCH0-037%-3.7
2-21Indiana St. (140.4)MVCA0-029%-6.0
2-24Southern Illinois (126.1)MVCH0-052%0.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Evansville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Evansville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Evansville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
EvansvilleMVC26.4526.3949.3244.41-0.36-2.95
BradleyMVC5.604.4366.6758.451.870.75
Southern IllinoisMVC3.044.4352.6350.960.160.09
DrakeMVC3.044.4052.6347.550.16-0.22
Missouri St.MVC2.914.4073.6870.221.381.78
Illinois St.MVC3.184.3944.4443.34-0.35-0.59
Loyola ChicagoMVC3.044.3977.7873.651.692.08
ValparaisoMVC0.544.3947.3748.01-0.03-0.17
Indiana St.MVC2.974.3941.1843.01-0.52-0.61
Northern IowaMVC0.544.3944.4448.69-0.06-0.12
Southeast Missouri St.OVC3.131.9944.4445.05-0.35-0.20
New MexicoMWC2.701.7942.1146.80-0.43-0.11
Austin PeayOVC2.701.7847.0647.71-0.16-0.08
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.771.7850.0056.790.000.24
Fresno St.MWC2.701.7870.5965.801.110.56
Louisiana TechCUSA2.701.7550.0053.680.000.13
Arkansas St.SB2.631.7229.4132.19-1.08-0.61
BinghamtonAE2.631.7244.4441.36-0.29-0.30
Bowling GreenMAC2.631.7262.5051.520.660.05
CanisiusMAAC2.631.7265.0065.270.790.53
DukeACC2.631.7288.8984.752.051.20
Murray St.OVC0.200.2470.5975.960.080.12
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.210.2436.8432.75-0.05-0.08
NevadaMWC0.270.2185.7182.120.200.13
Boise St.MWC0.280.2178.9576.980.160.11
Tennessee MartinOVC0.220.1826.3231.48-0.11-0.07
UNLVMWC0.070.1873.6865.250.030.06
Western KentuckyCUSA0.280.1868.4270.820.100.07
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.270.1829.4133.93-0.11-0.06
Utah St.MWC0.070.1845.0045.47-0.01-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.070.1844.4444.91-0.01-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.270.1837.5031.78-0.07-0.06
Chicago St.WAC0.200.180.003.06-0.20-0.17
Colorado St.MWC0.140.1845.0041.31-0.01-0.03
WyomingMWC0.130.1861.1156.790.030.02
San Jose St.MWC0.210.1811.7612.80-0.16-0.13
Georgia SouthernSB0.270.1766.6765.390.090.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.270.1725.0028.02-0.14-0.08
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.220.1542.1145.98-0.03-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.070.1561.1158.710.020.03
San Diego St.MWC0.270.1558.8262.830.050.04
George MasonA100.290.1245.0041.29-0.03-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.140.1215.0020.28-0.10-0.07
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.1255.5657.250.010.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.220.1217.6534.76-0.14-0.04
OhioMAC0.070.1247.0648.43-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.150.1278.9576.770.090.06
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.1257.8953.220.020.01
Montana St.BSky0.280.1250.0047.650.00-0.01
IndianaB100.220.1260.0052.880.040.01
SamfordSC0.070.1227.7832.67-0.03-0.04
TulsaAmer0.140.1255.0053.330.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.1222.2227.31-0.04-0.05
SouthernSWAC0.210.1231.5840.82-0.08-0.02
ElonCAA0.210.1252.6351.090.010.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.1276.1972.570.000.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.140.1237.5037.67-0.03-0.03
Little RockSB0.200.1222.2225.19-0.11-0.06
MississippiSEC0.200.1252.6345.860.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.200.1241.1839.66-0.04-0.02
VermontAE0.130.1275.0077.870.070.07
Wright St.Horz0.140.1268.4269.260.050.05
South DakotaSum0.210.1273.6872.400.100.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1144.4450.31-0.010.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.1172.2272.970.060.05
Wake ForestACC0.140.1142.1140.46-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.150.090.008.42-0.15-0.08
HowardMEAC0.150.0910.5326.29-0.12-0.04
Green BayHorz0.150.0925.0027.93-0.08-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0970.0068.210.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.140.0944.4446.66-0.02-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0960.0062.010.010.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.210.0917.6519.29-0.14-0.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0931.5832.71-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.230.0947.0641.38-0.01-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0923.5328.71-0.04-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.070.0925.0043.18-0.03-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0965.0056.350.020.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.150.0946.6747.00-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.150.0957.8966.270.020.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.140.0983.3381.420.090.06
UMKCWAC0.140.0921.0524.76-0.08-0.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.210.0935.2940.46-0.06-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.200.0956.2557.430.030.01
UTEPCUSA0.140.0933.3334.10-0.05-0.03
AlbanyAE0.130.0971.4370.250.060.04
BuffaloMAC0.060.0972.2274.940.030.04
FloridaSEC0.140.0973.6871.600.070.04
DrexelCAA0.140.0930.0030.97-0.06-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.140.0938.8943.36-0.03-0.01
Saint LouisA100.140.0947.3746.93-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.130.0960.0053.720.030.01
LouisvilleACC0.070.0978.9569.820.040.03
ManhattanMAAC0.130.0950.0050.860.000.00
IllinoisB100.150.0645.0043.62-0.02-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.150.0668.4263.610.050.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.150.0633.3340.35-0.05-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.0617.6527.340.00-0.03
AuburnSEC0.070.0689.4776.990.060.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0657.8946.220.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0670.0070.610.000.03
VillanovaBE0.000.0694.7490.310.000.05
XavierBE0.000.0685.7180.060.000.04
BelmontOVC0.140.0671.4374.670.060.03
TroySB0.070.0638.8944.43-0.02-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.150.0652.9452.670.010.00
AkronMAC0.080.0647.0644.92-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0631.5836.230.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.070.0680.9576.240.040.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0625.0031.44-0.03-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0627.7838.120.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.070.0666.6765.550.020.02
HartfordAE0.070.0650.0045.930.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0626.6729.12-0.03-0.02
MaineAE0.070.0610.5314.83-0.05-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0672.2274.730.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0645.0047.06-0.01-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.060.0010.26-0.07-0.05
New HampshireAE0.070.0633.3340.10-0.02-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0641.1839.14-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0655.0050.370.000.00
PurdueB100.000.0690.4888.390.000.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0633.3332.960.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0661.1151.910.020.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0652.9455.030.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0641.1838.470.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.070.0636.8445.19-0.02-0.01
UABCUSA0.070.0661.1164.150.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.0617.6523.840.00-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.070.0633.3333.87-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.0655.5655.550.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.140.0633.3339.89-0.05-0.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0694.7486.110.070.04
RiceCUSA0.140.0611.1117.68-0.11-0.04
TexasB120.140.0665.0058.600.040.01
Texas St.SB0.140.0657.8950.210.020.00
DelawareCAA0.130.0647.3743.00-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.070.0670.0058.090.030.01
IowaB100.070.0647.6243.94-0.00-0.01
IUPUIHorz0.130.0627.7829.82-0.06-0.02
LamarSlnd0.070.0650.0054.900.000.01
MinnesotaB100.070.0663.6457.610.020.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.130.0683.3384.250.090.04
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0630.0032.54-0.03-0.02
WinthropBSth0.070.0650.0059.430.000.01
IonaMAAC0.130.0660.0064.130.030.02
MaristMAAC0.000.0621.0521.990.00-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0627.7841.03-0.03-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0657.1453.040.000.00
PittsburghACC0.140.0640.0030.88-0.03-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0635.0031.82-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.060.0665.0065.330.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0642.1146.09-0.01-0.00
SienaMAAC0.060.0628.5729.93-0.03-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0670.0060.400.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0350.0052.500.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.039.5217.86-0.06-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0310.0019.620.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0370.0071.220.030.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0328.5731.24-0.03-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0331.5836.430.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0326.3230.450.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0310.0016.77-0.06-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.070.0368.4264.160.030.01
Cal PolyBW0.070.0323.5328.20-0.04-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0329.4133.20-0.03-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0340.0043.34-0.01-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0368.4254.040.030.00
OregonP120.070.0365.0063.810.020.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0352.6358.610.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0336.8435.58-0.02-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.070.0368.4259.020.030.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0315.7922.64-0.05-0.02
ArmyPat0.070.0361.1160.440.020.01
CampbellBSth0.080.0347.0647.41-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0362.5058.710.020.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0323.5325.630.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0320.0023.33-0.04-0.02
ColgatePat0.070.0350.0051.030.000.00
CornellIvy0.070.0333.3333.23-0.02-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0335.2935.540.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.070.0352.6351.680.000.00
Kansas St.B120.070.0375.0065.320.030.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0340.0042.51-0.01-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.070.0322.2228.66-0.04-0.01
Penn St.B100.070.0361.9055.820.020.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0330.0033.48-0.03-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0350.0045.850.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.070.0335.0026.13-0.02-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0380.0078.870.040.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0366.6767.670.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.080.0311.1118.00-0.06-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0352.9452.250.000.00
Wichita St.Amer0.070.0378.9577.380.040.02
ArizonaP120.070.0380.0078.940.040.02
MarylandB100.070.0366.6763.130.020.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0325.0039.91-0.03-0.01
TCUB120.070.0375.0067.830.030.01
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0365.0054.600.020.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0384.2173.180.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0321.4326.34-0.04-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0338.8944.070.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.070.0373.6869.660.030.01
FurmanSC0.070.0366.6768.540.020.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0352.6343.040.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.070.0377.7870.410.040.01
Michigan St.B100.070.0385.7183.760.050.02
Notre DameACC0.000.0363.1661.000.000.01
PacificWCC0.060.0345.0044.49-0.01-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.070.0358.8263.210.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0357.1460.410.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.060.0366.6768.750.020.01
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0352.9459.250.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0347.3742.160.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0368.4261.280.000.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0366.6766.030.020.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0321.0523.52-0.04-0.01