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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Evansville

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:205.3
Current RPI:205
Expected SOS:110
Current SOS:107
Current Record:2-4
Expected Record:12-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-2
Current OOC Record:2-4
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:200
Expected OOC SOS:86



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-965.00.02%
19-1073.20.05%
18-1190.40.29%
17-12109.90.72%
16-13125.62.71%
15-14143.45.87%
14-15162.510.50%
13-16181.416.08%
12-17201.518.02%
11-18220.417.68%
10-19238.713.56%
9-20256.18.26%
8-21270.94.10%
7-22285.91.47%
6-23297.00.51%
5-24313.20.14%
4-25324.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Evansville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Louisville (6.5)ACCA78-47L0%0.0
11-14Alcorn St. (320.5)SWACH82-59W100%0.0
11-19Morehead St. (211.9)OVCH69-56W100%0.0
11-25Toledo (153.9)MACN83-79L0%0.0
11-26UNC Wilmington (50.6)CAAN62-65L0%0.0
11-27Middle Tennessee (55.1)CUSAN66-55L0%0.0
12-3Boise St. (106.2)MWCH0-040%-2.9
12-6Bowling Green (217.3)MACH0-065%4.7
12-10Murray St. (139.5)OVCH0-050%-0.1
12-14Norfolk St. (309.4)MEACH0-086%13.0
12-17Austin Peay (212.5)OVCA0-053%0.8
12-29Illinois St. (74.7)MVCA0-015%-12.7
1-1Northern Iowa (99.9)MVCH0-034%-4.8
1-4Bradley (274.4)MVCH0-076%8.4
1-8Drake (306.7)MVCA0-062%3.6
1-11Missouri St. (124.0)MVCA0-020%-10.2
1-14Southern Illinois (157.0)MVCH0-055%1.4
1-17Wichita St. (34.2)MVCH0-07%-17.6
1-21Loyola Chicago (161.7)MVCA0-029%-6.7
1-25Northern Iowa (99.9)MVCA0-018%-11.0
1-29Illinois St. (74.7)MVCH0-029%-6.5
2-1Indiana St. (156.7)MVCA0-028%-7.1
2-4Missouri St. (124.0)MVCH0-037%-4.0
2-8Loyola Chicago (161.7)MVCH0-048%-0.5
2-11Southern Illinois (157.0)MVCA0-034%-4.8
2-14Drake (306.7)MVCH0-079%9.7
2-18Bradley (274.4)MVCA0-057%2.2
2-21Wichita St. (34.2)MVCA0-02%-23.8
2-25Indiana St. (156.7)MVCH0-047%-0.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Evansville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Evansville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Evansville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
EvansvilleMVC29.3626.4125.0036.36-14.68-7.20
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.044.5066.6753.900.350.35
Southern IllinoisMVC0.004.4750.0046.040.00-0.35
Wichita St.MVC0.604.4471.4385.370.263.14
Illinois St.MVC0.004.4350.0065.220.001.35
BradleyMVC0.004.4150.0028.990.00-1.85
Indiana St.MVC0.004.4033.3345.63-0.00-0.39
Missouri St.MVC0.004.4075.0064.470.001.28
DrakeMVC0.004.400.0020.66-0.00-2.58
Northern IowaMVC0.004.4040.0056.24-0.000.55
Murray St.OVC0.602.0042.8662.33-0.090.49
ToledoMAC10.221.9333.3348.64-3.41-0.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.001.8433.3343.95-0.00-0.22
Middle TennesseeCUSA10.221.8483.3372.086.810.81
LouisvilleACC8.331.8483.3375.155.560.93
Austin PeayOVC0.001.8240.0041.44-0.00-0.31
Norfolk St.MEAC0.001.810.0039.26-0.00-0.39
Morehead St.OVC8.331.7925.0043.54-4.17-0.23
Alcorn St.SWAC8.331.780.0033.68-8.33-0.58
UNC WilmingtonCAA9.521.7880.0076.385.710.94
Boise St.MWC0.001.7250.0058.950.000.31
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.3350.0038.430.00-0.08
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.2875.0054.320.000.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.2750.0043.490.00-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.000.2350.0052.330.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.690.2142.8646.78-0.10-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.2157.1440.590.00-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.2114.2937.52-0.00-0.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.2142.8645.30-0.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.190.0013.30-0.00-0.14
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1857.1447.320.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.600.1871.4355.750.260.02
BelmontOVC0.000.1540.0061.37-0.000.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.600.1583.3370.360.400.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.600.1550.0046.780.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1557.1467.020.000.05
Colorado St.MWC1.040.1583.3361.490.690.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1542.8634.17-0.00-0.05
DelawareCAA0.000.1540.0040.65-0.00-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.690.1416.6736.45-0.46-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.130.0042.55-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.130.0024.77-0.00-0.06
Fort WayneSum0.000.1366.6770.930.000.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1314.2928.66-0.00-0.05
New MexicoMWC0.000.1271.4358.670.000.02
XavierBE0.000.12100.0074.800.000.06
TCUB120.000.12100.0059.480.000.02
TulsaAmer0.000.1260.0039.200.00-0.03
UMKCWAC0.000.1271.4356.050.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.1260.0048.590.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.000.1280.0035.960.00-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.000.1260.0039.610.00-0.03
Iowa St.B120.000.1271.4368.970.000.05
George MasonA100.000.1257.1442.940.00-0.02
OklahomaB120.000.1283.3351.920.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.120.0027.77-0.00-0.05
Air ForceMWC0.000.1250.0042.710.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.120.0019.30-0.00-0.07
Utah St.MWC0.000.1250.0053.560.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1285.7174.430.000.06
MarshallCUSA0.830.1283.3359.600.560.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.1250.0033.010.00-0.04
MississippiSEC0.600.1271.4346.010.26-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.120.0017.30-0.00-0.08
NevadaMWC0.000.1275.0070.470.000.05
HofstraCAA0.000.1157.1440.550.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.1150.0051.820.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.1133.3326.75-0.00-0.05
LipscombASun0.830.0914.2933.07-0.60-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.830.0950.0052.140.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0971.4343.020.00-0.01
PurdueB100.600.0971.4374.450.260.04
South DakotaSum0.000.0957.1447.220.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.09100.0075.690.000.05
North CarolinaACC0.000.0985.7180.010.000.05
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0975.0074.990.000.04
ArkansasSEC0.000.0983.3362.840.000.02
DetroitHorz0.000.090.0019.51-0.00-0.05
Green BayHorz0.000.0933.3348.71-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.090.0034.23-0.00-0.03
WoffordSC0.000.090.0033.58-0.00-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0940.0037.44-0.00-0.02
PittsburghACC0.830.0985.7155.550.600.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0971.4350.570.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0962.5056.500.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0971.4349.590.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0983.3369.840.000.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.0940.0050.91-0.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0966.6756.360.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0950.0055.850.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0980.0068.320.000.03
Long Beach St.BW0.600.090.0039.35-0.60-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.600.0940.0055.44-0.120.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0714.2934.56-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.070.0024.25-0.00-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0728.5734.18-0.00-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0716.6732.62-0.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.0725.0056.92-0.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0650.0050.940.000.00
IUPUISum0.000.0628.5747.72-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0640.0067.95-0.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0657.1436.050.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0616.6731.91-0.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.060.0034.18-0.00-0.02
IowaB100.000.0642.8644.33-0.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0633.3353.29-0.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0024.19-0.00-0.03
IonaMAAC0.000.0660.0070.140.000.02
UC DavisBW0.000.0657.1448.410.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0666.6739.720.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0650.0056.260.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.690.0683.3380.700.460.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6737.09-0.00-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0657.1448.860.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0650.0050.290.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3333.15-0.00-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0650.0061.810.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0616.6734.31-0.00-0.02
StanfordP120.000.0675.0059.100.000.01
USCP120.000.06100.0075.380.000.03
Washington St.P120.000.0650.0036.820.00-0.02
IndianaB100.000.0683.3375.060.000.03
ElonCAA0.000.0683.3358.030.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0616.6733.69-0.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0620.0034.39-0.00-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.060.0028.15-0.00-0.03
LSUSEC0.000.0671.4349.770.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0650.0061.590.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0685.7165.670.000.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0612.5048.98-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0657.1448.240.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0683.3356.560.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0058.600.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0650.0054.490.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0657.1461.940.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0657.1464.940.000.02
DrexelCAA0.000.0642.8636.82-0.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0666.6753.460.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.600.0666.6765.810.200.02
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0075.010.000.03
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0082.550.000.04
SyracuseACC0.000.0666.6770.140.000.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0383.3363.610.000.01
San FranciscoWCC1.040.0383.3350.740.690.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0314.2929.15-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6751.460.000.00
BucknellPat0.000.0375.0067.660.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0018.22-0.00-0.02
DaytonA100.000.0366.6772.440.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0316.6736.35-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0023.46-0.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0038.26-0.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0316.6727.03-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.32-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0366.6775.370.000.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0342.8638.05-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0316.6743.29-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0314.2929.81-0.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3345.60-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.000.0371.4366.730.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0360.0057.170.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0333.3327.13-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0357.1469.300.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0325.0033.54-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0366.6751.090.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0385.7180.960.000.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0375.0047.510.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0360.0067.410.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.0350.0051.260.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0340.0030.80-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0383.3378.430.000.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0333.3336.31-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0385.7169.010.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0383.3361.150.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0350.0056.430.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0333.3323.33-0.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6770.740.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0325.0043.26-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0328.5728.46-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0385.7178.150.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.600.0342.8637.60-0.09-0.01
BaylorB120.600.03100.0074.460.600.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0027.250.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.0387.5078.680.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0385.7162.410.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0086.250.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0371.4365.740.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.920.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0371.4352.370.000.00