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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Evansville

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:118.0
Current RPI:118
Expected SOS:131
Current SOS:131
Current Record:18-12
Expected Record:18-12
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-2
Current OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC RPI:68
Expected OOC SOS:199



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-12118.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Evansville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-19Miami OH (229.0)MACA50-69W100%0.0
11-24Fresno St. (182.0)MWCN58-52W100%0.0
11-25Green Bay (54.0)HorzN62-64L0%0.0
11-26San Francisco (181.0)WCCN72-79W100%0.0
12-2Wright St. (264.0)HorzH86-78W100%0.0
12-6IUPUI (260.0)SumH89-62W100%0.0
12-9Belmont (105.0)OVCA62-65W100%0.0
12-13Murray St. (63.0)OVCH79-81L0%0.0
12-18Ohio (231.0)MACH81-69W100%0.0
12-21Alabama St. (258.0)SWACH81-63W100%0.0
12-28Coppin St. (311.0)MEACH85-80W100%0.0
1-1Northern Iowa (14.0)MVCH52-49W100%0.0
1-4Indiana St. (190.0)MVCA79-75L0%0.0
1-7Loyola Chicago (123.0)MVCH70-71L0%0.0
1-10Bradley (288.0)MVCA56-66W100%0.0
1-14Missouri St. (246.0)MVCA54-56W100%0.0
1-17Wichita St. (17.0)MVCH41-61L0%0.0
1-21Loyola Chicago (123.0)MVCA56-65W100%0.0
1-24Southern Illinois (278.0)MVCH75-66W100%0.0
1-27Indiana St. (190.0)MVCH89-78W100%0.0
1-31Drake (269.0)MVCA70-65L0%0.0
2-3Illinois St. (62.0)MVCA77-51L0%0.0
2-7Bradley (288.0)MVCH53-56L0%0.0
2-10Missouri St. (246.0)MVCH73-66W100%0.0
2-14Southern Illinois (278.0)MVCA64-72W100%0.0
2-17Drake (269.0)MVCH61-52W100%0.0
2-22Wichita St. (17.0)MVCA62-43L0%0.0
2-25Northern Iowa (14.0)MVCA68-57L0%0.0
2-28Illinois St. (62.0)MVCH67-69L0%0.0
3-6Illinois St. (62.0)MVCN71-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Evansville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Evansville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Evansville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
EvansvilleMVC26.4126.4157.7557.754.094.09
Illinois St.MVC6.006.0058.6258.621.031.03
Northern IowaMVC4.444.4493.5593.553.873.87
Southern IllinoisMVC4.394.3936.6736.67-1.17-1.17
DrakeMVC4.384.3825.0025.00-2.19-2.19
Wichita St.MVC4.384.3886.2186.213.173.17
BradleyMVC4.364.3623.3323.33-2.32-2.32
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.354.3557.1457.140.620.62
Indiana St.MVC4.334.3346.4346.43-0.31-0.31
Missouri St.MVC4.294.2933.3333.33-1.43-1.43
Murray St.OVC1.911.9182.7682.761.251.25
BelmontOVC1.811.8170.0070.000.720.72
Wright St.Horz1.801.8032.1432.14-0.64-0.64
Green BayHorz1.781.7872.4172.410.800.80
IUPUISum1.781.7833.3333.33-0.59-0.59
Miami OHMAC1.751.7540.0040.00-0.35-0.35
OhioMAC1.751.7534.4834.48-0.54-0.54
Alabama St.SWAC1.671.6765.3865.380.510.51
Coppin St.MEAC1.671.6724.1424.14-0.86-0.86
Fresno St.MWC1.671.6744.8344.83-0.17-0.17
San FranciscoWCC1.671.6743.3343.33-0.22-0.22
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.330.3325.0025.00-0.16-0.16
ValparaisoHorz0.220.2283.3383.330.150.15
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.220.2251.7251.720.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.220.2256.6756.670.030.03
Kent St.MAC0.220.2264.5264.520.060.06
Saint LouisA100.210.2132.2632.26-0.08-0.08
Oral RobertsSum0.200.2053.3353.330.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.190.1966.6766.670.060.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.190.1939.2939.29-0.04-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.190.1927.5927.59-0.09-0.09
Austin PeayOVC0.190.1921.4321.43-0.11-0.11
Tennessee St.OVC0.190.1910.3410.34-0.15-0.15
Jackson St.SWAC0.170.1734.3834.38-0.05-0.05
DetroitHorz0.170.1741.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.160.1660.7160.710.030.03
DePaulBE0.160.1637.5037.50-0.04-0.04
MemphisAmer0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.160.1657.1457.140.020.02
DenverSum0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
IPFWSum0.160.1648.1548.15-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.160.1674.2974.290.080.08
Colorado St.MWC0.140.1481.2581.250.090.09
Texas TechB120.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
AkronMAC0.140.1458.8258.820.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.140.1420.6920.69-0.08-0.08
Morehead St.OVC0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.140.1421.4321.43-0.08-0.08
Central MichiganMAC0.130.1371.4371.430.060.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.130.1338.4638.46-0.03-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
Seton HallBE0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.1216.6716.67-0.08-0.08
OaklandHorz0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
Boise St.MWC0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
BuffaloMAC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
PacificWCC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0918.7518.75-0.06-0.06
SouthernSWAC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0823.0823.08-0.05-0.05
IllinoisB100.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
ButlerBE0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0865.5265.520.030.03
Georgia St.SB0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
HowardMEAC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0875.8675.860.040.04
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.080.0893.9493.940.070.07
HawaiiBW0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
George MasonA100.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
UABCUSA0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.060.000.00-0.06-0.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0664.7164.710.020.02
Washington St.P120.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Iowa St.B120.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Michigan St.B100.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
NevadaMWC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
San Jose St.MWC0.060.060.000.00-0.06-0.06
TulaneAmer0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
BYUWCC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
LipscombASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
YaleIvy0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0586.6786.670.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
OregonP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
ColoradoP120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
ElonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01