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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Evansville

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:214.0
Current RPI:214
Expected SOS:122
Current SOS:122
Current Record:12-19
Expected Record:12-19
Current Conf Record:7-13
Expected Conf Record:7-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-2
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:231
Expected OOC SOS:242



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-19214.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Evansville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12IUPUI (322.0)SumA78-84W100%0.0
11-18Mercer (81.0)ASunH89-76W100%0.0
11-20Valparaiso (184.0)HorzH100-92W100%0.0
11-26Indiana (102.0)B10A77-46L0%0.0
11-30Ohio (87.0)MACA81-59L0%0.0
12-4Murray St. (142.0)OVCA65-63L0%0.0
12-7Miami OH (161.0)MACH78-65W100%0.0
12-10Xavier (47.0)BEA63-60L0%0.0
12-14Jackson St. (296.0)SWACH51-57L0%0.0
12-21Butler (150.0)BEH59-68L0%0.0
12-28Grambling St. (348.0)SWACH96-61W100%0.0
1-1Drake (174.0)MVCA94-66L0%0.0
1-4Indiana St. (71.0)MVCH62-81L0%0.0
1-8Northern Iowa (109.0)MVCH53-80L0%0.0
1-11Southern Illinois (200.0)MVCA69-75W100%0.0
1-15Illinois St. (134.0)MVCA79-78L0%0.0
1-18Loyola Chicago (288.0)MVCH53-48W100%0.0
1-21Missouri St. (85.0)MVCA64-61L0%0.0
1-26Bradley (265.0)MVCH66-60W100%0.0
1-29Northern Iowa (109.0)MVCA95-81L0%0.0
2-1Wichita St. (4.0)MVCA81-67L0%0.0
2-5Missouri St. (85.0)MVCH54-66L0%0.0
2-9Bradley (265.0)MVCA83-66L0%0.0
2-12Illinois St. (134.0)MVCH104-98W100%0.0
2-16Wichita St. (4.0)MVCH68-84L0%0.0
2-19Indiana St. (71.0)MVCA59-54L0%0.0
2-22Southern Illinois (200.0)MVCH56-61L0%0.0
2-25Drake (174.0)MVCH61-48W100%0.0
3-1Loyola Chicago (288.0)MVCA72-75W100%0.0
3-6Drake (174.0)MVCN61-69W100%0.0
3-7Wichita St. (4.0)MVCN80-58L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Evansville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Evansville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Evansville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
EvansvilleMVC26.4926.4936.5036.50-7.15-7.15
Wichita St.MVC5.835.83100.00100.005.835.83
DrakeMVC5.745.7448.1548.15-0.21-0.21
Indiana St.MVC4.364.3665.5265.521.351.35
Southern IllinoisMVC4.324.3240.0040.00-0.86-0.86
Missouri St.MVC4.324.3258.6258.620.740.74
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.264.2631.0331.03-1.62-1.62
BradleyMVC4.244.2436.6736.67-1.13-1.13
Northern IowaMVC4.234.2346.4346.43-0.30-0.30
Illinois St.MVC4.214.2150.0050.000.000.00
OhioMAC1.801.8065.6265.620.560.56
IUPUISum1.801.8010.7110.71-1.41-1.41
Miami OHMAC1.761.7644.8344.83-0.18-0.18
Grambling St.SWAC1.741.7415.3815.38-1.21-1.21
Jackson St.SWAC1.701.7033.3333.33-0.57-0.57
XavierBE1.691.6961.2961.290.380.38
ValparaisoHorz1.691.6951.7251.720.060.06
Murray St.OVC1.691.6957.6957.690.260.26
MercerASun1.661.6676.6776.670.890.89
ButlerBE1.661.6641.3841.38-0.29-0.29
IndianaB101.611.6151.6151.610.050.05
DePaulBE0.260.2636.3636.36-0.07-0.07
MilwaukeeHorz0.240.2460.6160.610.050.05
Ball St.MAC0.230.2310.7110.71-0.18-0.18
UICHorz0.210.2113.7913.79-0.15-0.15
Saint LouisA100.200.2080.6580.650.120.12
Alabama A&MSWAC0.190.1942.8642.86-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.190.1953.1253.120.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.180.1813.7913.79-0.13-0.13
Western MichiganMAC0.180.1870.9770.970.080.08
Chicago St.WAC0.180.1836.6736.67-0.05-0.05
TulsaCUSA0.180.1863.6463.640.050.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.160.1657.1457.140.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.160.1631.0331.03-0.06-0.06
IPFWSum0.160.1667.7467.740.060.06
OaklandHorz0.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
Seton HallBE0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
Western KentuckySB0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
IllinoisB100.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.140.1432.1432.14-0.05-0.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.140.1448.1548.15-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
NorthwesternB100.130.1342.4242.42-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Kent St.MAC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.130.1378.7978.790.070.07
Central MichiganMAC0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
Bowling GreenMAC0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
AkronMAC0.130.1363.6463.640.030.03
Oral RobertsSlnd0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.1130.3030.30-0.04-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
VCUA100.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
Arizona St.P120.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
VirginiaACC0.110.1182.3582.350.070.07
GeorgetownBE0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
St. John'sBE0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
VillanovaBE0.100.1087.5087.500.080.08
Notre DameACC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.100.1064.2964.290.030.03
StetsonASun0.100.1022.5822.58-0.06-0.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1083.8783.870.070.07
AlabamaSEC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
DaytonA100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
LipscombASun0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
AlbanyAE0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
East Tennessee St.ASun0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
UMKCWAC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
North FloridaASun0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
BYUWCC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
DavidsonSC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0670.9770.970.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0678.5778.570.030.03
South DakotaSum0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
La SalleA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
MarylandACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0546.1546.15-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
UC DavisBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
MichiganB100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
NebraskaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
PacificWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
TCUB120.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
NJITind0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
OklahomaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
TexasB120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
YaleIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
SamfordSC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
USCP120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
WashingtonP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00