Evansville

Conference:	MVC
Expected RPI:	131.0
Current RPI:	131
Expected SOS:	84
Current SOS:	84
Current Record:	15-15
Expected Record:	15-15
Current Conf Record:	10-10
Expected Conf Record:	10-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-2
Current OOC Record:	5-5
Expected OOC Record:	5-5
Expected OOC RPI:	201
Expected OOC SOS:	169

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
15-15	131.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Evansville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Butler (113.0)	Horz	H	80-77	W	100%
11-16	Indiana (17.0)	B10	H	73-94	L	0%
11-23	Illinois Chicago (297.0)	Horz	A	79-75	L	0%
11-29	Alabama St. (308.0)	SWAC	H	62-55	W	100%
12-3	Texas Christian (114.0)	MWC	H	68-70	L	0%
12-6	North Carolina (3.0)	ACC	A	97-48	L	0%
12-10	North Carolina A&T (289.0)	MEAC	H	86-65	W	100%
12-17	Tennessee Tech (138.0)	OVC	H	70-72	L	0%
12-20	Miami OH (247.0)	MAC	A	75-77	W	100%
12-29	Southern Illinois (255.0)	MVC	H	78-60	W	100%
1-1	Northern Iowa (73.0)	MVC	A	65-76	W	100%
1-4	Wichita St. (12.0)	MVC	H	66-67	L	0%
1-7	Illinois St. (100.0)	MVC	A	75-73	L	0%
1-10	Indiana St. (129.0)	MVC	A	80-78	L	0%
1-13	Drake (133.0)	MVC	H	60-69	L	0%
1-15	Missouri St. (123.0)	MVC	A	82-87	W	100%
1-18	Bradley (265.0)	MVC	H	90-67	W	100%
1-21	Illinois St. (100.0)	MVC	H	79-71	W	100%
1-25	Wichita St. (12.0)	MVC	A	86-74	L	0%
1-29	Indiana St. (129.0)	MVC	H	81-90	L	0%
2-1	Bradley (265.0)	MVC	A	62-92	W	100%
2-4	Southern Illinois (255.0)	MVC	A	53-52	L	0%
2-7	Creighton (24.0)	MVC	H	65-57	W	100%
2-12	Drake (133.0)	MVC	A	78-54	L	0%
2-15	Northern Iowa (73.0)	MVC	H	63-62	W	100%
2-18	Western Illinois (150.0)	Sum	H	68-45	W	100%
2-21	Creighton (24.0)	MVC	A	93-92	L	0%
2-25	Missouri St. (123.0)	MVC	H	75-70	W	100%
3-2	Missouri St. (123.0)	MVC	N	72-64	W	100%
3-3	Creighton (24.0)	MVC	N	71-99	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Evansville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Evansville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Evansville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Evansville	MVC	26.49	26.49	47.01	47.01	-1.58	-1.58
Creighton	MVC	6.04	6.04	86.67	86.67	4.43	4.43
Missouri St.	MVC	5.90	5.90	53.57	53.57	0.42	0.42
Illinois St.	MVC	4.47	4.47	61.29	61.29	1.01	1.01
Indiana St.	MVC	4.42	4.42	51.72	51.72	0.15	0.15
Drake	MVC	4.41	4.41	48.28	48.28	-0.15	-0.15
Wichita St.	MVC	4.39	4.39	82.76	82.76	2.88	2.88
Bradley	MVC	4.34	4.34	23.33	23.33	-2.32	-2.32
Northern Iowa	MVC	4.34	4.34	62.07	62.07	1.05	1.05
Southern Illinois	MVC	4.34	4.34	25.00	25.00	-2.17	-2.17
Butler	Horz	1.81	1.81	59.38	59.38	0.34	0.34
Illinois Chicago	Horz	1.75	1.75	22.22	22.22	-0.97	-0.97
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	1.74	1.74	32.14	32.14	-0.62	-0.62
Western Illinois	Sum	1.70	1.70	51.85	51.85	0.06	0.06
Indiana	B10	1.69	1.69	75.00	75.00	0.85	0.85
Alabama St.	SWAC	1.67	1.67	35.71	35.71	-0.48	-0.48
Miami OH	MAC	1.67	1.67	28.57	28.57	-0.71	-0.71
North Carolina	ACC	1.67	1.67	84.85	84.85	1.16	1.16
Tennessee Tech	OVC	1.67	1.67	55.17	55.17	0.17	0.17
Texas Christian	MWC	1.67	1.67	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Chicago St.	GWC	0.26	0.26	10.71	10.71	-0.21	-0.21
Iowa	B10	0.26	0.26	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.24	0.24	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.22	0.22	58.06	58.06	0.04	0.04
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.17	0.17	81.82	81.82	0.11	0.11
Wright St.	Horz	0.16	0.16	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.16	0.16	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.16	0.16	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.16	0.16	83.33	83.33	0.11	0.11
Boise St.	MWC	0.16	0.16	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.16	0.16	20.69	20.69	-0.10	-0.10
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.16	0.16	32.00	32.00	-0.06	-0.06
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.14	0.14	37.04	37.04	-0.04	-0.04
Ohio	MAC	0.14	0.14	78.79	78.79	0.08	0.08
Detroit	Horz	0.14	0.14	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.14	0.14	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.14	0.14	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.14	0.14	81.25	81.25	0.09	0.09
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.14	0.14	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.14	0.14	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Old Dominion	CAA	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.13	0.13	75.00	75.00	0.07	0.07
Nevada	WAC	0.13	0.13	80.00	80.00	0.08	0.08
Michigan	B10	0.13	0.13	71.88	71.88	0.06	0.06
San Diego St.	MWC	0.13	0.13	77.42	77.42	0.07	0.07
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.13	0.13	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.13	0.13	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
UAB	CUSA	0.13	0.13	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.13	0.13	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.13	0.13	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.11	0.11	13.79	13.79	-0.08	-0.08
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.11	0.11	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
North Dakota	GWC	0.11	0.11	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.11	0.11	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
Oakland	Sum	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.11	0.11	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Xavier	A10	0.11	0.11	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.11	0.11	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.11	0.11	6.67	6.67	-0.09	-0.09
West Virginia	BE	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Northeastern	CAA	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.11	0.11	62.07	62.07	0.03	0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.11	0.11	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.11	0.11	10.71	10.71	-0.08	-0.08
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Morehead St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.11	0.11	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.10	0.10	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.10	0.10	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.10	0.10	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.09	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Dayton	A10	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Akron	MAC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Grambling	SWAC	0.09	0.09	14.29	14.29	-0.06	-0.06
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
Western Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	96.43	96.43	0.08	0.08
Howard	MEAC	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Arkansas St.	SB	0.08	0.08	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Ohio St.	B10	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Lipscomb	ASun	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.08	0.08	25.93	25.93	-0.04	-0.04
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Purdue	B10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Maryland	ACC	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.00	28.00	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Utah	Sum	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	19.23	19.23	-0.04	-0.04
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.06	64.29	64.29	0.02	0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	10.34	10.34	-0.05	-0.05
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.05	0.05	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.05	0.05	19.23	19.23	-0.03	-0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.05	30.77	30.77	-0.02	-0.02
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Temple	A10	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Fresno St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	94.12	94.12	0.04	0.04
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Belmont	ASun	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Florida International	SB	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	WAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	16.13	16.13	-0.02	-0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Southern California	P12	0.03	0.03	18.75	18.75	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	6.90	6.90	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	SC	0.02	0.02	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.02	0.02	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00