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Through games of Nov 24, 2014.


Evansville

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:102.2
Current RPI:62
Expected SOS:133
Current SOS:167
Current Record:2-0
Expected Record:17-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-2
Current OOC Record:2-0
Expected OOC Record:7-2
Expected OOC RPI:78
Expected OOC SOS:163



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-113.00.01%
25-214.00.03%
24-319.10.14%
23-422.30.49%
22-533.11.45%
21-643.33.91%
20-756.17.81%
19-869.013.21%
18-985.517.23%
17-10102.918.42%
16-11121.015.77%
15-12139.910.46%
14-13159.16.22%
13-14179.33.06%
12-15197.01.27%
11-16216.00.40%
10-17240.90.09%
9-18260.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Evansville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-19Miami OH (245.7)MACA50-69W100%0.0
11-24Fresno St. (213.5)MWCN58-52W100%0.0
12-2Wright St. (131.9)HorzH0-068%5.6
12-6IUPUI (246.6)SumH0-088%14.0
12-9Belmont (82.5)OVCA0-033%-5.4
12-13Murray St. (130.8)OVCH0-062%3.6
12-18Ohio (114.5)MACH0-066%4.9
12-21Alabama St. (216.1)SWACH0-081%10.5
12-28Coppin St. (271.6)MEACH0-093%17.6
1-1Northern Iowa (60.2)MVCH0-049%-0.3
1-4Indiana St. (174.5)MVCA0-053%0.9
1-7Loyola Chicago (228.7)MVCH0-082%11.0
1-10Bradley (281.1)MVCA0-076%8.4
1-14Missouri St. (136.8)MVCA0-044%-1.9
1-17Wichita St. (16.7)MVCH0-028%-7.2
1-21Loyola Chicago (228.7)MVCA0-062%3.8
1-24Southern Illinois (177.8)MVCH0-073%7.5
1-27Indiana St. (174.5)MVCH0-075%8.1
1-31Drake (265.4)MVCA0-072%6.9
2-3Illinois St. (71.4)MVCA0-028%-7.2
2-7Bradley (281.1)MVCH0-090%15.6
2-10Missouri St. (136.8)MVCH0-067%5.3
2-14Southern Illinois (177.8)MVCA0-051%0.3
2-17Drake (265.4)MVCH0-088%14.1
2-22Wichita St. (16.7)MVCA0-012%-14.3
2-25Northern Iowa (60.2)MVCA0-027%-7.5
2-28Illinois St. (71.4)MVCH0-050%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Evansville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Evansville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Evansville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
EvansvilleMVC33.3326.48100.0061.6333.336.16
DrakeMVC0.004.820.0025.68-0.00-2.35
Southern IllinoisMVC0.004.8040.0051.51-0.000.15
Illinois St.MVC0.004.7950.0066.380.001.57
Indiana St.MVC0.004.7875.0048.250.00-0.17
Northern IowaMVC0.004.76100.0071.900.002.08
BradleyMVC0.004.7533.3323.42-0.00-2.53
Missouri St.MVC0.004.7550.0053.010.000.29
Wichita St.MVC0.004.75100.0084.400.003.27
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.004.750.0040.17-0.00-0.93
Murray St.OVC0.002.0733.3369.76-0.000.82
BelmontOVC0.001.9975.0072.150.000.88
IUPUISum0.001.9850.0034.770.00-0.60
Miami OHMAC25.001.95100.0033.6425.00-0.64
Wright St.Horz0.001.9566.6758.280.000.32
OhioMAC0.001.9550.0056.450.000.25
Alabama St.SWAC0.001.850.0066.34-0.000.61
Coppin St.MEAC0.001.850.0029.87-0.00-0.75
Fresno St.MWC25.001.850.0032.69-25.00-0.64
Kent St.MAC0.000.2675.0066.130.000.08
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.2620.0034.54-0.00-0.08
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.23100.0050.790.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.230.0037.06-0.00-0.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.2333.3343.01-0.00-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.23100.0058.710.000.04
Austin PeayOVC0.000.230.0033.26-0.00-0.08
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.220.0027.43-0.00-0.10
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.2125.0040.65-0.00-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.000.2033.3348.25-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.2066.6757.060.000.03
DenverSum0.000.1966.6764.880.000.06
Texas TechB120.000.1766.6745.370.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.17100.0053.170.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.1775.0069.590.000.06
North DakotaBSky0.000.160.0043.39-0.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.1633.3346.31-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.16100.0060.950.000.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1650.0032.210.00-0.06
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1675.0055.490.000.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.160.0032.95-0.00-0.05
VCUA100.000.1675.0067.590.000.06
IPFWSum0.000.1666.6760.760.000.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.140.0031.92-0.00-0.05
Colorado St.MWC0.000.14100.0064.710.000.04
TulsaAmer0.000.1475.0058.430.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.140.0033.20-0.00-0.05
DetroitHorz0.000.1350.0054.870.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.1350.0066.640.000.04
BuffaloMAC0.000.1366.6759.480.000.03
Seton HallBE0.000.13100.0065.090.000.04
Utah St.MWC0.000.1375.0060.930.000.03
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1366.6753.220.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.130.0041.06-0.00-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1340.0038.36-0.00-0.03
Green BayHorz0.000.1350.0068.360.000.05
DePaulBE0.000.13100.0036.280.00-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1333.3350.01-0.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1120.0029.26-0.00-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.110.0043.12-0.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.1166.6772.280.000.05
Southern UtahBSky4.170.100.0019.76-4.17-0.06
UC IrvineBW0.000.1033.3367.83-0.000.04
ButlerBE0.000.10100.0059.940.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.10100.0065.880.000.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1020.0053.69-0.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.100.0022.66-0.00-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1066.6745.370.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.1033.3333.50-0.00-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.10100.0043.380.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.1025.0046.39-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.100.0038.25-0.00-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1025.0035.54-0.00-0.03
George MasonA100.000.1020.0021.70-0.00-0.05
PortlandWCC0.000.10100.0051.040.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0966.6766.030.000.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.070.0020.03-0.00-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.070.0016.93-0.00-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.070.0040.20-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.070.0039.51-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.070.0038.56-0.00-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.070.0030.13-0.00-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.0775.0058.190.000.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0766.6750.930.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.0775.0063.510.000.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0733.3326.24-0.00-0.03
Michigan St.B100.000.0775.0073.300.000.03
NevadaMWC0.000.0725.0042.95-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0760.0056.230.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0740.0066.65-0.000.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.07100.0084.910.000.05
San Jose St.MWC0.000.070.0018.96-0.00-0.04
TulaneAmer0.000.0750.0035.290.00-0.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0750.0037.390.00-0.02
WyomingMWC0.000.07100.0066.880.000.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0750.0065.370.000.02
BrownIvy0.000.0720.0037.46-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0733.3346.01-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0733.3344.26-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0775.0073.930.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0775.0057.780.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.070.0043.29-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0750.0045.420.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0733.3347.25-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.070.0029.78-0.00-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0725.0042.83-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.07100.0057.580.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0750.0063.110.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0775.0056.390.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0733.3343.21-0.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC4.170.0766.6756.001.390.01
Ohio St.B100.000.06100.0073.810.000.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0069.16-0.000.02
XavierBE0.000.06100.0080.240.000.04
IowaB100.000.0660.0064.030.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.06100.0067.390.000.02
North FloridaASun0.000.060.0044.98-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0680.0074.980.000.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.060.0065.66-0.000.02
UABCUSA0.000.0633.3342.50-0.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0666.6733.810.00-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.0625.0053.38-0.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0022.57-0.00-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0666.6746.410.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0034.80-0.00-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0650.0043.250.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.060.0036.85-0.00-0.02
YaleIvy0.000.0675.0069.180.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.04100.0074.590.000.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.04100.0031.710.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0045.710.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0350.0026.270.00-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0350.0034.540.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0320.0035.87-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0375.0068.180.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.03100.0074.040.000.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6774.460.000.02
Northern ArizonaBSky4.170.0325.0057.73-2.080.01
PacificWCC0.000.0333.3332.25-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6753.410.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0366.6747.180.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0051.180.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0325.0039.30-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0333.3334.36-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0350.0055.640.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0375.0070.270.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0340.0033.57-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0350.0043.570.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0021.49-0.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0320.0044.69-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0375.0066.800.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.03100.0063.820.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0316.6730.01-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.03100.0070.020.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0380.0072.950.000.02
OregonP120.000.0375.0068.720.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0340.0034.21-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0034.67-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0380.0059.570.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0366.6753.640.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0333.3354.64-0.000.00
DaytonA100.000.0375.0072.970.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0333.3341.47-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth4.170.0333.3335.09-1.39-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0325.0020.27-0.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.000.03100.0041.460.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0333.3363.19-0.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0375.0062.270.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0039.32-0.00-0.01