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Through games of Jan 29, 2015.


Evansville

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:77.6
Current RPI:72
Expected SOS:126
Current SOS:121
Current Record:15-5
Expected Record:20-9
Current Conf Record:6-3
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-1
Current OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC RPI:67
Expected OOC SOS:181



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-538.70.14%
23-646.62.10%
22-755.611.44%
21-866.828.41%
20-980.633.08%
19-1094.518.43%
18-11109.05.34%
17-12124.81.01%
16-13140.80.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Evansville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-19Miami OH (268.7)MACA50-69W100%0.0
11-24Fresno St. (220.7)MWCN58-52W100%0.0
11-25Green Bay (52.7)HorzN62-64L0%0.0
11-26San Francisco (186.7)WCCN72-79W100%0.0
12-2Wright St. (179.3)HorzH86-78W100%0.0
12-6IUPUI (219.2)SumH89-62W100%0.0
12-9Belmont (126.5)OVCA62-65W100%0.0
12-13Murray St. (68.9)OVCH79-81L0%0.0
12-18Ohio (210.5)MACH81-69W100%0.0
12-21Alabama St. (215.7)SWACH81-63W100%0.0
12-28Coppin St. (320.4)MEACH85-80W100%0.0
1-1Northern Iowa (21.7)MVCH52-49W100%0.0
1-4Indiana St. (188.5)MVCA79-75L0%0.0
1-7Loyola Chicago (124.4)MVCH70-71L0%0.0
1-10Bradley (279.7)MVCA56-66W100%0.0
1-14Missouri St. (220.1)MVCA54-56W100%0.0
1-17Wichita St. (13.5)MVCH41-61L0%0.0
1-21Loyola Chicago (124.4)MVCA56-65W100%0.0
1-24Southern Illinois (265.6)MVCH75-66W100%0.0
1-27Indiana St. (188.5)MVCH89-78W100%0.0
1-31Drake (263.0)MVCA0-082%10.0
2-3Illinois St. (84.6)MVCA0-030%-5.9
2-7Bradley (279.7)MVCH0-088%13.2
2-10Missouri St. (220.1)MVCH0-083%10.5
2-14Southern Illinois (265.6)MVCA0-065%4.4
2-17Drake (263.0)MVCH0-094%16.8
2-22Wichita St. (13.5)MVCA0-010%-14.1
2-25Northern Iowa (21.7)MVCA0-019%-9.8
2-28Illinois St. (84.6)MVCH0-054%1.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Evansville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Evansville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Evansville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
EvansvilleMVC26.5526.4070.4168.1010.849.56
DrakeMVC0.754.4920.0021.95-0.45-2.52
Southern IllinoisMVC3.194.4340.0038.25-0.64-1.04
Illinois St.MVC0.634.4360.0060.320.130.91
Indiana St.MVC5.384.4244.4443.50-0.60-0.58
BradleyMVC2.944.4030.0029.34-1.18-1.82
Northern IowaMVC3.004.4095.0088.212.703.36
Wichita St.MVC2.954.4089.4787.552.333.30
Loyola ChicagoMVC5.434.3958.8259.070.960.80
Missouri St.MVC2.874.3933.3336.25-0.96-1.21
Murray St.OVC2.621.9378.9580.911.521.19
Wright St.Horz2.761.8847.3748.39-0.15-0.06
BelmontOVC2.761.8568.4265.971.020.59
Green BayHorz2.561.8577.7877.141.421.00
IUPUISum2.631.8440.0042.42-0.53-0.28
Miami OHMAC2.561.8133.3331.58-0.85-0.67
OhioMAC2.561.8141.1836.73-0.45-0.48
Alabama St.SWAC2.501.7269.2370.180.960.70
Coppin St.MEAC2.501.7211.1120.51-1.94-1.02
Fresno St.MWC2.501.7244.4439.30-0.28-0.37
San FranciscoWCC2.501.7240.0043.25-0.50-0.23
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.320.3015.0017.49-0.22-0.19
Kent St.MAC0.260.2473.6866.850.120.08
Saint LouisA100.310.2342.1136.43-0.05-0.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.320.2155.0053.790.030.02
ValparaisoHorz0.190.2180.0079.210.110.12
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.190.2136.8437.34-0.05-0.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.270.2156.2557.210.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.250.2126.3226.56-0.12-0.10
Tennessee St.OVC0.240.2110.0013.32-0.20-0.15
Bowling GreenMAC0.130.2176.4771.500.070.09
Jackson St.SWAC0.220.1925.0037.81-0.11-0.05
DetroitHorz0.250.1842.8642.94-0.04-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.130.1833.3333.68-0.04-0.06
Oral RobertsSum0.190.1847.3749.64-0.01-0.00
DenverSum0.250.1842.8646.32-0.04-0.01
MemphisAmer0.250.1865.0061.640.070.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.120.1550.0053.360.000.01
Texas TechB120.260.1552.3840.090.01-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.190.1550.0058.100.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.190.1530.0030.15-0.08-0.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.1561.1160.450.010.03
North DakotaBSky0.150.1523.5330.64-0.08-0.06
Arkansas Little RockSB0.190.1536.8438.06-0.05-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.180.1538.8938.68-0.04-0.03
PortlandWCC0.120.1550.0049.080.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.070.1550.0042.580.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.070.1568.4263.670.020.04
VCUA100.120.1585.0082.080.090.09
Ball St.MAC0.250.1535.2935.88-0.07-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.130.1573.3372.480.060.07
IPFWSum0.130.1538.8941.67-0.03-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.220.1316.6721.98-0.15-0.07
Jacksonville St.OVC0.210.1333.3331.30-0.07-0.05
Morehead St.OVC0.130.1238.1045.39-0.03-0.01
OaklandHorz0.130.1240.0043.64-0.03-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.130.1268.4269.400.050.05
Colorado St.MWC0.070.1285.0081.560.050.08
TulsaAmer0.130.1278.9573.610.070.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.1220.0027.23-0.04-0.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.120.1223.8125.03-0.06-0.06
Seton HallBE0.060.1270.0063.270.030.03
Utah St.MWC0.070.1257.8955.970.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.190.1255.5658.500.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.180.1260.0057.770.040.02
Western MichiganMAC0.070.1261.1156.260.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.200.1268.4266.110.070.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.120.1166.6768.800.040.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.150.1025.0031.44-0.08-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.160.1028.5736.68-0.07-0.03
UtahP120.150.0978.9580.160.090.06
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0940.0042.37-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0931.2527.76-0.03-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.190.0965.0068.130.060.03
HowardMEAC0.130.0941.1844.45-0.02-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.200.0923.5328.20-0.10-0.04
ButlerBE0.190.0971.4370.710.080.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.190.0963.1667.460.050.03
IllinoisB100.190.0961.9060.260.050.02
George WashingtonA100.130.0976.1969.570.070.03
HawaiiBW0.120.0965.0059.020.040.02
PacificWCC0.130.0936.8433.24-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.130.095.2610.53-0.11-0.07
George MasonA100.120.0933.3332.71-0.04-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.130.0915.0023.65-0.09-0.05
UMKCWAC0.190.0930.0036.10-0.08-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.140.0941.1838.33-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.130.0950.0043.420.00-0.01
RichmondA100.120.0955.0056.930.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.130.0945.0037.40-0.01-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.070.006.61-0.09-0.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0710.0015.23-0.07-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0721.0533.18-0.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.090.0731.5844.68-0.03-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0745.0057.10-0.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.130.0635.2932.57-0.04-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0644.4449.87-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.130.0638.8941.89-0.03-0.01
Michigan St.B100.130.0666.6764.940.040.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.130.0655.0054.120.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0657.1462.470.010.02
TulaneAmer0.130.0660.0052.500.030.00
UTSACUSA0.130.0647.0645.70-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.070.0645.0036.05-0.01-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.130.0666.6766.030.040.02
East CarolinaAmer0.130.0633.3331.55-0.04-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0628.5732.25-0.03-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.130.0672.2277.830.060.03
Ohio St.B100.130.0677.2777.580.070.03
XavierBE0.120.0666.6765.800.040.02
AlabamaSEC0.060.0663.1658.770.020.01
BrownIvy0.130.0641.1837.58-0.02-0.01
BYUWCC0.120.0666.6767.920.040.02
Cal PolyBW0.130.0647.0649.32-0.01-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.060.0695.2494.640.050.05
IonaMAAC0.130.0671.4375.000.050.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0678.9569.330.000.02
NevadaMWC0.130.0623.5325.36-0.07-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.070.0665.0063.090.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0650.0061.990.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0680.0079.850.000.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0680.0074.250.040.03
San DiegoWCC0.060.0647.6246.47-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.130.0675.0075.670.070.03
San Jose St.MWC0.070.060.001.50-0.07-0.06
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0645.0040.47-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0645.0049.89-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0638.8943.58-0.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.070.0678.9573.800.040.03
ToledoMAC0.140.0660.0058.600.030.01
IowaB100.060.0665.0063.440.020.02
Kansas St.B120.060.0657.1446.770.01-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0636.8439.62-0.02-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0623.0835.91-0.03-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0663.1661.900.020.01
North FloridaASun0.060.0655.0060.480.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0652.3856.160.000.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0642.8644.87-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0682.3584.880.040.04
TCUB120.060.0670.0059.730.020.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0652.9447.000.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0657.8957.900.010.01
YaleIvy0.060.0664.7164.080.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.090.0380.0072.630.050.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.090.0327.7828.20-0.04-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0321.0530.44-0.04-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0331.5831.14-0.02-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0352.9452.600.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0357.8959.150.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0330.0029.63-0.03-0.01
FIUCUSA0.060.0341.1840.92-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.030.004.66-0.07-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.070.0340.0038.71-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.070.0363.6468.350.020.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0340.0037.07-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0354.5556.920.000.00
Miami FLACC0.070.0370.0066.140.030.01
MichiganB100.070.0360.0052.300.010.00
Notre DameACC0.070.0390.9185.820.050.02
OregonP120.070.0365.0058.650.020.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0316.6725.21-0.00-0.02
TowsonCAA0.070.0342.8639.21-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.060.0363.1663.410.020.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0340.0044.17-0.01-0.00
WisconsinB100.070.0390.0087.270.050.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0338.8937.19-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0342.1139.01-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0326.3236.41-0.03-0.01
CaliforniaP120.070.0357.1447.840.01-0.00
ColoradoP120.060.0355.0052.260.010.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0370.5973.350.020.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0338.4633.52-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.070.0310.0013.97-0.05-0.02
MontanaBSky0.060.0352.9455.910.000.00
NebraskaB100.070.0360.0049.440.01-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0342.1147.36-0.01-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.060.0347.0644.93-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.070.0361.1156.080.020.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0357.8956.390.010.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0355.0055.270.000.00
DaytonA100.070.0380.0077.330.040.02
ElonCAA0.070.0345.0042.60-0.01-0.00
LibertyBSth0.070.0311.1116.23-0.05-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.070.0320.0024.57-0.04-0.01
PurdueB100.060.0361.9058.660.010.00
South AlabamaSB0.060.0326.3229.19-0.03-0.01