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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Evansville

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:93.0
Current RPI:93
Expected SOS:181
Current SOS:181
Current Record:24-9
Expected Record:24-9
Current Conf Record:14-7
Expected Conf Record:14-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:57
Expected OOC SOS:223



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-993.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Evansville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Southeast Missouri St. (342.0)OVCH80-65W100%0.0
11-21Belmont (98.0)OVCH93-88W100%0.0
11-26Providence (40.0)BEN74-64L0%0.0
11-27Santa Clara (251.0)WCCN57-69W100%0.0
11-29UC Irvine (75.0)BWN75-56W100%0.0
12-1Alabama St. (265.0)SWACH88-56W100%0.0
12-5Murray St. (169.0)OVCA81-85W100%0.0
12-8Arkansas (133.0)SECA89-76L0%0.0
12-12Mississippi Valley St. (330.0)SWACH95-60W100%0.0
12-17Norfolk St. (225.0)MEACH84-70W100%0.0
12-20Fresno St. (66.0)MWCA77-85W100%0.0
12-22Alabama A&M (332.0)SWACH91-70W100%0.0
12-30Indiana St. (172.0)MVCH70-62W100%0.0
1-2Missouri St. (235.0)MVCA59-76W100%0.0
1-6Wichita St. (47.0)MVCA67-64L0%0.0
1-9Bradley (306.0)MVCH67-35W100%0.0
1-12Drake (325.0)MVCH84-65W100%0.0
1-15Illinois St. (114.0)MVCA55-66W100%0.0
1-19Loyola Chicago (239.0)MVCH74-66W100%0.0
1-24Indiana St. (172.0)MVCA82-65L0%0.0
1-28Southern Illinois (138.0)MVCA78-85W100%0.0
1-31Wichita St. (47.0)MVCH65-78L0%0.0
2-3Northern Iowa (70.0)MVCA57-54L0%0.0
2-6Missouri St. (235.0)MVCH83-64W100%0.0
2-11Illinois St. (114.0)MVCH60-70L0%0.0
2-14Loyola Chicago (239.0)MVCA73-74W100%0.0
2-17Drake (325.0)MVCA74-80W100%0.0
2-20Southern Illinois (138.0)MVCH83-71W100%0.0
2-23Bradley (306.0)MVCA55-67W100%0.0
2-27Northern Iowa (70.0)MVCH52-54L0%0.0
3-4Missouri St. (235.0)MVCN66-56W100%0.0
3-5Indiana St. (172.0)MVCN68-42W100%0.0
3-6Northern Iowa (70.0)MVCN54-56L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Evansville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Evansville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Evansville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
EvansvilleMVC26.5326.5372.2672.2611.8111.81
Northern IowaMVC5.525.5260.0060.001.101.10
Missouri St.MVC5.505.5042.8642.86-0.79-0.79
Indiana St.MVC5.495.4946.4346.43-0.39-0.39
Southern IllinoisMVC4.084.0873.3373.331.901.90
Wichita St.MVC4.074.0772.4172.411.821.82
Illinois St.MVC4.054.0555.1755.170.420.42
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.054.0548.2848.28-0.14-0.14
DrakeMVC4.024.0221.4321.43-2.30-2.30
BradleyMVC4.004.0013.7913.79-2.90-2.90
Southeast Missouri St.OVC1.741.7411.5411.54-1.34-1.34
Murray St.OVC1.721.7253.5753.570.120.12
Alabama A&MSWAC1.661.6637.0437.04-0.43-0.43
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.621.6223.5323.53-0.86-0.86
Alabama St.SWAC1.611.6142.8642.86-0.23-0.23
Norfolk St.MEAC1.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
BelmontOVC1.571.5765.5265.520.490.49
UC IrvineBW1.561.5674.1974.190.760.76
Santa ClaraWCC1.541.5434.4834.48-0.48-0.48
ArkansasSEC1.521.5248.3948.39-0.05-0.05
Fresno St.MWC1.521.5274.1974.190.730.73
ProvidenceBE1.521.5268.7568.750.570.57
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.230.2339.2939.29-0.05-0.05
ButlerBE0.220.2267.7467.740.080.08
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.200.2024.2424.24-0.10-0.10
SouthernSWAC0.200.2061.2961.290.050.05
ValparaisoHorz0.200.2080.0080.000.120.12
Saint LouisA100.200.2034.3834.38-0.06-0.06
TulsaAmer0.200.2064.5264.520.060.06
BYUWCC0.190.1968.7568.750.070.07
North TexasCUSA0.190.1933.3333.33-0.06-0.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.180.1821.4321.43-0.10-0.10
Morehead St.OVC0.180.1858.6258.620.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.180.1856.2556.250.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
NevadaMWC0.170.1756.6756.670.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.170.1746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.170.1714.2914.29-0.12-0.12
Jackson St.SWAC0.170.1753.1253.120.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.170.1753.1253.120.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.160.1648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.160.1620.6920.69-0.09-0.09
Tennessee St.OVC0.150.1564.2964.290.040.04
PepperdineWCC0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.150.1560.7160.710.030.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.150.1522.5822.58-0.08-0.08
Ball St.MAC0.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.150.1510.7110.71-0.12-0.12
IUPUISum0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.140.1475.7675.760.070.07
HawaiiBW0.140.1483.3383.330.090.09
Tennessee MartinOVC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
DePaulBE0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
ArizonaP120.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
UNLVMWC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
IowaB100.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
San DiegoWCC0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
PacificWCC0.100.1023.0823.08-0.05-0.05
PortlandWCC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
CreightonBE0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.080.0835.2935.29-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
LipscombASun0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.070.0780.6580.650.050.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0783.8783.870.050.05
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
HofstraCAA0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
MinnesotaB100.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
UC RiversideBW0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0722.2222.22-0.04-0.04
KentuckySEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0722.2222.22-0.04-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
MarquetteBE0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.070.0782.3582.350.040.04
RichmondA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0782.1482.140.040.04
VillanovaBE0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
Washington St.P120.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
UMKCWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MercerSC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
TowsonCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
USCP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
UtahP120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
UTSACUSA0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
VirginiaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0529.1729.17-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
LSUSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
OregonP120.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
UC DavisBW0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
XavierBE0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
MemphisAmer0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0318.5218.52-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.030.033.453.45-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
ElonCAA0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0262.8662.860.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0272.4172.410.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
KansasB120.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
LamarSlnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0220.8320.83-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
UCFAmer0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.020.0244.1244.12-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
NJITASun0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
RiderMAAC0.020.0239.3939.39-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0279.3179.310.010.01
NebraskaB100.020.0247.0647.06-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00