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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Evansville

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:73.9
Current RPI:82
Expected SOS:137
Current SOS:159
Current Record:7-2
Expected Record:21-8
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-1
Current OOC Record:7-2
Expected OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC RPI:84
Expected OOC SOS:228



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-216.00.01%
26-322.90.20%
25-427.90.97%
24-535.23.39%
23-644.19.24%
22-754.317.35%
21-866.421.99%
20-980.220.47%
19-1094.714.68%
18-11110.37.31%
17-12127.32.93%
16-13144.01.12%
15-14160.50.25%
14-15175.80.06%
13-16196.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Evansville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-19Miami OH (274.9)MACA50-69W100%0.0
11-24Fresno St. (258.3)MWCN58-52W100%0.0
11-25Green Bay (43.7)HorzN62-64L0%0.0
11-26San Francisco (123.6)WCCN72-79W100%0.0
12-2Wright St. (112.2)HorzH86-78W100%0.0
12-6IUPUI (291.5)SumH89-62W100%0.0
12-9Belmont (125.7)OVCA62-65W100%0.0
12-13Murray St. (160.4)OVCH79-81L0%0.0
12-18Ohio (199.6)MACH81-69W100%0.0
12-21Alabama St. (228.8)SWACH0-088%14.1
12-28Coppin St. (335.0)MEACH0-099%28.9
1-1Northern Iowa (35.8)MVCH0-056%1.6
1-4Indiana St. (249.9)MVCA0-075%7.8
1-7Loyola Chicago (114.6)MVCH0-075%7.9
1-10Bradley (270.6)MVCA0-075%7.8
1-14Missouri St. (190.9)MVCA0-064%4.2
1-17Wichita St. (17.4)MVCH0-040%-3.0
1-21Loyola Chicago (114.6)MVCA0-047%-0.9
1-24Southern Illinois (203.5)MVCH0-085%12.3
1-27Indiana St. (249.9)MVCH0-092%16.5
1-31Drake (284.8)MVCA0-083%11.0
2-3Illinois St. (70.2)MVCA0-038%-3.5
2-7Bradley (270.6)MVCH0-092%16.5
2-10Missouri St. (190.9)MVCH0-086%12.9
2-14Southern Illinois (203.5)MVCA0-062%3.5
2-17Drake (284.8)MVCH0-095%19.8
2-22Wichita St. (17.4)MVCA0-016%-11.7
2-25Northern Iowa (35.8)MVCA0-027%-7.1
2-28Illinois St. (70.2)MVCH0-067%5.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Evansville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Evansville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Evansville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
EvansvilleMVC27.7226.4273.3369.9512.9410.54
DrakeMVC0.934.5020.0020.65-0.56-2.64
Southern IllinoisMVC0.004.4560.0051.150.000.10
Illinois St.MVC0.004.4466.6765.560.001.38
Indiana St.MVC0.284.4433.3334.04-0.09-1.42
Northern IowaMVC0.004.4290.0079.440.002.60
BradleyMVC0.004.4133.3333.23-0.00-1.48
Missouri St.MVC0.004.4137.5041.39-0.00-0.76
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.004.4071.4361.580.001.02
Wichita St.MVC0.004.4087.5086.380.003.20
Murray St.OVC5.561.9350.0060.380.000.40
Wright St.Horz6.391.8866.6759.742.130.37
BelmontOVC6.511.8566.6765.302.170.57
Green BayHorz5.561.8571.4377.652.381.02
IUPUISum5.561.8422.2227.24-3.09-0.84
Miami OHMAC5.831.8233.3329.48-1.94-0.75
OhioMAC5.831.8150.0039.570.00-0.38
Alabama St.SWAC0.001.7233.3365.06-0.000.52
Coppin St.MEAC0.001.720.0015.32-0.00-1.20
Fresno St.MWC5.561.7233.3330.87-1.85-0.66
San FranciscoWCC5.561.7255.5655.770.620.20
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.3118.1821.30-0.00-0.18
Kent St.MAC0.000.2471.4361.370.000.06
Saint LouisA100.000.2460.0033.870.00-0.08
ValparaisoHorz0.310.2280.0069.620.190.08
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.2171.4363.410.000.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.2133.3338.99-0.00-0.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.280.2175.0067.580.140.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.2144.4447.53-0.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.2122.2230.99-0.00-0.08
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.210.0016.85-0.00-0.14
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1918.1844.62-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.1944.4448.88-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1845.4544.07-0.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.1855.5659.990.000.04
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1844.4445.59-0.00-0.02
DenverSum0.280.1850.0054.230.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1633.3349.71-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.280.1688.8955.910.220.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.280.1533.3334.28-0.09-0.05
AkronMAC0.000.1560.0056.560.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.1585.7170.350.000.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.280.1542.8655.64-0.040.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1562.5066.700.000.05
North DakotaBSky0.000.1525.0032.77-0.00-0.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.150.0023.71-0.00-0.08
PortlandWCC0.310.1566.6748.410.10-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.280.1528.5736.95-0.12-0.04
VCUA100.280.1570.0071.420.110.06
IPFWSum0.280.1557.1456.900.040.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.710.130.0028.26-0.71-0.06
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1355.5638.600.00-0.03
OaklandHorz0.000.1330.0031.57-0.00-0.05
TulsaAmer0.000.1360.0056.800.000.02
Morehead St.OVC0.350.1218.1846.16-0.22-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1225.0023.43-0.00-0.07
Seton HallBE0.000.1290.0067.260.000.04
BuffaloMAC0.000.1275.0069.120.000.05
Colorado St.MWC0.000.12100.0078.050.000.07
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1262.5054.980.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1218.1835.99-0.00-0.03
DePaulBE0.000.1260.0034.110.00-0.04
Utah St.MWC0.000.1255.5650.970.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.280.1275.0058.430.140.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1162.5054.970.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.400.1020.0038.24-0.24-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.100.0031.74-0.00-0.04
UtahP120.000.1077.7879.480.000.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.020.0975.0071.730.510.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0942.8638.26-0.00-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.620.0962.5071.290.160.04
Southern UtahBSky0.280.0916.6727.56-0.19-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0950.0049.620.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0937.5031.95-0.00-0.03
HowardMEAC0.280.0930.0043.91-0.11-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.0980.0072.550.000.04
IllinoisB100.000.0972.7365.930.000.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.090.0023.15-0.00-0.05
Chicago St.WAC0.000.090.0011.40-0.00-0.07
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0950.0032.620.00-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.280.0937.5046.78-0.07-0.01
PacificWCC0.000.0950.0038.180.00-0.02
George MasonA100.000.0925.0025.93-0.00-0.04
UMKCWAC0.000.0922.2241.92-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.280.0960.0040.620.06-0.02
RichmondA100.000.0955.5657.090.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.280.0955.5638.130.03-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.070.008.88-0.00-0.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0710.0018.01-0.00-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.070.0039.41-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.070.0033.84-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0711.1144.62-0.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0616.6719.68-0.00-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.000.0666.6754.660.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0672.7373.150.000.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0636.3664.92-0.000.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0687.5054.790.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0642.8637.65-0.00-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.620.0637.5038.60-0.16-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0640.0046.73-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.560.0625.0042.64-0.28-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.590.0644.4445.64-0.07-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0650.0056.340.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0640.0028.86-0.00-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.590.0655.5649.500.07-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0660.0059.420.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.280.0620.0029.81-0.17-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0644.4470.08-0.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0690.0084.680.000.04
XavierBE0.590.0680.0070.960.350.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.0675.0068.680.000.02
BrownIvy0.000.0640.0033.79-0.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.0666.6767.300.000.02
Cal PolyBW0.560.0642.8638.75-0.08-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.0690.0090.940.000.05
IonaMAAC0.000.0666.6772.340.000.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0688.8963.800.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0660.0037.220.00-0.02
NevadaMWC0.000.0611.1125.02-0.00-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.000.0670.0058.600.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0688.8981.310.000.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0630.0039.44-0.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0671.4357.100.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0654.5557.300.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0670.0072.830.000.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.007.84-0.00-0.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0650.0040.880.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0066.180.000.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0625.0028.68-0.00-0.03
UABCUSA0.000.0630.0037.28-0.00-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0655.5654.950.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0628.5742.17-0.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0677.7873.370.000.03
IowaB100.000.0672.7362.590.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0644.4455.75-0.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0038.46-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0655.5656.400.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0644.4456.91-0.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0627.2738.97-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0666.6777.690.000.03
YaleIvy0.000.0672.7367.180.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0377.7871.960.000.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0337.5041.20-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.400.0337.5034.19-0.10-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6766.340.000.01
Miami FLACC0.350.0390.0075.520.280.02
St. BonaventureA100.400.0375.0065.410.200.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0350.0053.700.000.00
WisconsinB100.350.0390.9188.390.280.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0034.08-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.280.0336.3638.88-0.08-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.280.0342.8649.98-0.04-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0350.0057.510.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0344.4439.74-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.280.0344.4451.04-0.030.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0012.36-0.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0340.0050.32-0.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0377.7878.540.000.02
HoustonAmer0.310.0371.4348.860.13-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0341.6744.33-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.000.0355.5642.550.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0390.9171.890.000.01
OregonP120.000.0366.6758.060.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0318.1828.02-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0366.6751.430.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.280.0360.0064.620.060.01
Western CarolinaSC0.280.0320.0041.46-0.17-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0357.1461.670.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.280.0310.0030.45-0.22-0.01
CaliforniaP120.280.0390.0066.690.220.01
ColoradoP120.280.0366.6758.240.090.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.280.0366.6777.030.090.02
HawaiiBW0.280.0366.6754.830.090.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.280.0320.0039.70-0.17-0.01
MaristMAAC0.280.0310.0018.61-0.22-0.02
MontanaBSky0.280.0325.0052.09-0.140.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.280.0340.0050.78-0.060.00
Portland St.BSky0.280.0350.0041.830.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0050.750.000.00
DaytonA100.280.0377.7870.120.150.01
ElonCAA0.280.0337.5047.87-0.07-0.00
LibertyBSth0.280.0325.0034.77-0.14-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.280.0320.0026.57-0.17-0.01
PurdueB100.280.0372.7363.730.130.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0036.67-0.00-0.01