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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.

Evansville

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:151.0
Current RPI:151
Expected SOS:109
Current SOS:109
Current Record:15-15
Expected Record:15-15
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:62
Expected OOC SOS:145


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-15151.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Evansville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Arkansas St. (291.0)SBH77-63W100%0.0
11-13North Carolina Central (279.0)MEACH68-55W100%0.0
11-16Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)OVCH66-50W100%0.0
11-18Binghamton (320.0)AEH66-61W100%0.0
11-21Fresno St. (103.0)MWCN57-59W100%0.0
11-22Louisiana Tech (192.0)CUSAN61-63L0%0.0
11-29New Mexico (118.0)MWCA78-59L0%0.0
12-5Bowling Green (193.0)MACA76-91W100%0.0
12-9Canisius (124.0)MAACH65-58W100%0.0
12-16Austin Peay (164.0)OVCH78-74W100%0.0
12-20Duke (7.0)ACCA104-40L0%0.0
12-23Illinois St. (85.0)MVCH66-72L0%0.0
12-30Loyola Chicago (22.0)MVCA66-59L0%0.0
1-3Southern Illinois (100.0)MVCA65-63L0%0.0
1-6Bradley (105.0)MVCH68-44W100%0.0
1-10Missouri St. (136.0)MVCH64-55W100%0.0
1-13Drake (166.0)MVCA81-65L0%0.0
1-17Indiana St. (184.0)MVCH66-71L0%0.0
1-20Bradley (105.0)MVCA66-53L0%0.0
1-24Valparaiso (188.0)MVCA65-75W100%0.0
1-27Drake (166.0)MVCH77-73W100%0.0
1-31Northern Iowa (138.0)MVCH57-49W100%0.0
2-3Illinois St. (85.0)MVCA75-71L0%0.0
2-7Valparaiso (188.0)MVCH63-59W100%0.0
2-10Missouri St. (136.0)MVCA72-55L0%0.0
2-13Northern Iowa (138.0)MVCA47-41L0%0.0
2-18Loyola Chicago (22.0)MVCH66-76L0%0.0
2-21Indiana St. (184.0)MVCA58-53L0%0.0
2-24Southern Illinois (100.0)MVCH75-44W100%0.0
3-1Northern Iowa (138.0)MVCN50-60L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Evansville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Evansville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Evansville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
EvansvilleMVC26.4026.4047.4147.41-1.37-1.37
Northern IowaMVC5.915.9144.4444.44-0.66-0.66
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.444.4483.3383.332.962.96
Illinois St.MVC4.414.4150.0050.000.000.00
BradleyMVC4.384.3860.0060.000.880.88
Southern IllinoisMVC4.384.3860.0060.000.880.88
Missouri St.MVC4.364.3653.3353.330.290.29
DrakeMVC4.304.3048.2848.28-0.15-0.15
ValparaisoMVC4.304.3046.4346.43-0.31-0.31
Indiana St.MVC4.294.2933.3333.33-1.43-1.43
Southeast Missouri St.OVC1.911.9142.8642.86-0.27-0.27
Austin PeayOVC1.721.7255.1755.170.180.18
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.721.7253.3353.330.110.11
New MexicoMWC1.721.7253.1253.120.110.11
Fresno St.MWC1.721.7265.5265.520.530.53
Louisiana TechCUSA1.701.7046.6746.67-0.11-0.11
Arkansas St.SB1.671.6731.0331.03-0.63-0.63
BinghamtonAE1.671.6732.1432.14-0.60-0.60
Bowling GreenMAC1.671.6748.2848.28-0.06-0.06
CanisiusMAAC1.671.6767.7467.740.590.59
DukeACC1.671.6778.1278.120.940.94
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.220.2230.0030.00-0.09-0.09
Murray St.OVC0.220.2282.7682.760.140.14
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.190.1934.4834.48-0.06-0.06
Air ForceMWC0.190.1934.4834.48-0.06-0.06
UNLVMWC0.190.1960.6160.610.040.04
Chicago St.WAC0.190.193.333.33-0.18-0.18
Utah St.MWC0.190.1948.4848.48-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.190.1967.7467.740.070.07
WyomingMWC0.190.1959.3859.380.030.03
NevadaMWC0.180.1879.4179.410.110.11
Boise St.MWC0.180.1873.3373.330.090.09
Tennessee MartinOVC0.170.1727.5927.59-0.08-0.08
Western KentuckyCUSA0.160.1669.7069.700.060.06
Kent St.MAC0.160.1648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.160.1624.1424.14-0.08-0.08
Georgia SouthernSB0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.160.1671.4371.430.070.07
Colorado St.MWC0.160.1632.2632.26-0.06-0.06
San Jose St.MWC0.160.1610.3410.34-0.13-0.13
Ball St.MAC0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
OhioMAC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
IndianaB100.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
George MasonA100.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
ElonCAA0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Little RockSB0.110.1120.0020.00-0.06-0.06
SamfordSC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.1116.6716.67-0.07-0.07
South DakotaSum0.110.1173.3373.330.050.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.1180.0080.000.060.06
UTSACUSA0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.100.1071.8871.880.050.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.090.0914.2914.29-0.06-0.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0922.2222.22-0.05-0.05
BelmontOVC0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
AlbanyAE0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Iowa St.B120.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
VillanovaBE0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
XavierBE0.080.0884.8584.850.060.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.086.676.67-0.07-0.07
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
BuffaloMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
DrexelCAA0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Saint LouisA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
UMKCWAC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
ColoradoP120.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
AuburnSEC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
HartfordAE0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
MaineAE0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
New HampshireAE0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0644.4444.44-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.060.0682.3582.350.040.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
TroySB0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0515.6215.62-0.04-0.04
IowaB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0593.9493.940.050.05
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
BYUWCC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
IUPUIHorz0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
MaristMAAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0512.5012.50-0.04-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
WinthropBSth0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Notre DameACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
ArmyPat0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
CornellIvy0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.039.689.68-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0332.3532.35-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
OregonP120.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Wichita St.Amer0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
PacificWCC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.030.0379.4179.410.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
FurmanSC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Portland St.BSky0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
TCUB120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01