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Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


Evansville

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:89.7
Current RPI:93
Expected SOS:186
Current SOS:178
Current Record:18-7
Expected Record:22-8
Current Conf Record:8-5
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:63
Expected OOC SOS:233



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-775.728.57%
22-887.942.65%
21-9102.422.49%
20-10118.25.58%
19-11133.30.66%
18-12147.80.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Evansville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Southeast Missouri St. (333.7)OVCH80-65W100%0.0
11-21Belmont (82.0)OVCH93-88W100%0.0
11-26Providence (50.6)BEN74-64L0%0.0
11-27Santa Clara (261.6)WCCN57-69W100%0.0
11-29UC Irvine (75.7)BWN75-56W100%0.0
12-1Alabama St. (305.5)SWACH88-56W100%0.0
12-5Murray St. (180.2)OVCA81-85W100%0.0
12-8Arkansas (106.1)SECA89-76L0%0.0
12-12Mississippi Valley St. (324.2)SWACH95-60W100%0.0
12-17Norfolk St. (207.6)MEACH84-70W100%0.0
12-20Fresno St. (115.1)MWCA77-85W100%0.0
12-22Alabama A&M (307.0)SWACH91-70W100%0.0
12-30Indiana St. (159.2)MVCH70-62W100%0.0
1-2Missouri St. (235.3)MVCA59-76W100%0.0
1-6Wichita St. (35.2)MVCA67-64L0%0.0
1-9Bradley (307.7)MVCH67-35W100%0.0
1-12Drake (302.9)MVCH84-65W100%0.0
1-15Illinois St. (111.2)MVCA55-66W100%0.0
1-19Loyola Chicago (231.8)MVCH74-66W100%0.0
1-24Indiana St. (159.2)MVCA82-65L0%0.0
1-28Southern Illinois (131.3)MVCA78-85W100%0.0
1-31Wichita St. (35.2)MVCH65-78L0%0.0
2-3Northern Iowa (113.1)MVCA57-54L0%0.0
2-6Missouri St. (235.3)MVCH83-64W100%0.0
2-11Illinois St. (111.2)MVCH60-70L0%0.0
2-14Loyola Chicago (231.8)MVCA0-071%6.2
2-17Drake (302.9)MVCA0-082%9.9
2-20Southern Illinois (131.3)MVCH0-078%8.2
2-23Bradley (307.7)MVCA0-094%16.7
2-27Northern Iowa (113.1)MVCH0-067%4.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Evansville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Evansville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Evansville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
EvansvilleMVC26.3926.3771.5673.2311.3812.25
Southern IllinoisMVC2.844.3176.0076.841.472.31
Illinois St.MVC4.674.2756.5254.370.610.37
Missouri St.MVC4.664.2740.9140.18-0.85-0.84
Indiana St.MVC4.624.2750.0049.440.00-0.05
BradleyMVC2.754.2412.5012.58-2.06-3.17
Northern IowaMVC2.704.2454.1754.680.220.40
DrakeMVC2.784.2421.7424.34-1.57-2.18
Loyola ChicagoMVC2.744.2447.8345.97-0.12-0.34
Wichita St.MVC4.574.2371.4374.901.962.11
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.261.9013.6415.85-1.64-1.30
Murray St.OVC2.251.9050.0052.850.000.11
Alabama A&MSWAC2.211.8438.8944.59-0.49-0.20
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.201.7920.8322.97-1.28-0.97
Alabama St.SWAC2.131.7830.0034.53-0.85-0.55
Norfolk St.MEAC2.131.7545.4552.45-0.190.09
BelmontOVC2.091.7370.8369.020.870.66
UC IrvineBW2.091.7272.7372.440.950.77
Santa ClaraWCC2.041.6934.7833.19-0.62-0.57
ArkansasSEC2.001.6747.8351.37-0.090.05
Fresno St.MWC2.001.6766.6763.750.670.46
ProvidenceBE2.001.6770.8368.100.830.60
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.210.2139.1341.05-0.05-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.210.2116.6719.49-0.14-0.13
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.280.2024.0025.68-0.15-0.10
NevadaMWC0.220.2057.1455.360.030.02
Saint LouisA100.260.2034.7832.39-0.08-0.07
SouthernSWAC0.180.2061.9065.330.040.06
North TexasCUSA0.160.1931.8232.46-0.06-0.07
Jacksonville St.OVC0.270.1824.0024.16-0.14-0.09
Western KentuckyCUSA0.220.1845.4546.08-0.02-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.140.1840.0040.34-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.140.1815.0018.13-0.10-0.11
Jackson St.SWAC0.140.1850.0054.180.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.140.189.0917.14-0.11-0.12
Texas SouthernSWAC0.140.1845.4554.18-0.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.210.1752.1753.440.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.210.1768.1865.170.080.05
PepperdineWCC0.170.1758.3360.900.030.04
TulsaAmer0.250.1766.6764.700.080.05
ValparaisoHorz0.250.1782.6183.030.160.11
Tennessee TechOVC0.210.1765.2264.340.060.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.160.179.5210.67-0.13-0.13
New MexicoMWC0.130.1758.3360.710.020.04
Seton HallBE0.170.1770.8368.080.070.06
ButlerBE0.250.1770.8369.000.100.06
BYUWCC0.160.1768.0070.260.060.07
Austin PeayOVC0.130.1540.0042.85-0.03-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.170.1550.0050.500.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.180.1560.8757.130.040.02
Utah St.MWC0.130.1447.6249.28-0.01-0.00
DePaulBE0.130.1433.3334.02-0.04-0.04
ArizonaP120.170.1479.1778.290.100.08
Air ForceMWC0.120.1443.4837.80-0.02-0.03
HawaiiBW0.120.1485.0083.440.090.09
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.130.1250.0049.320.00-0.00
IowaB100.130.1279.1778.880.080.07
UNLVMWC0.180.1252.1755.070.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.130.1241.6741.18-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.130.1260.8755.980.030.01
IUPUISum0.170.1138.4638.50-0.04-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.170.1141.6742.39-0.03-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.120.1130.4328.20-0.05-0.05
ToledoMAC0.080.1160.8762.080.020.03
WyomingMWC0.130.1143.4842.54-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.130.1123.8125.99-0.07-0.05
MississippiSEC0.080.1162.5058.940.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.170.1169.5770.090.070.05
Boise St.MWC0.130.1160.8760.440.030.02
CreightonBE0.080.1164.0062.070.020.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.170.1143.4843.77-0.02-0.01
PortlandWCC0.120.1138.4638.04-0.03-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.080.1145.0048.13-0.01-0.00
TCUB120.120.1145.8339.36-0.01-0.02
TulaneAmer0.090.0936.0034.84-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0950.0045.770.00-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.090.0966.6769.750.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.130.0927.2727.80-0.06-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0921.7422.75-0.05-0.05
LipscombASun0.120.0928.0030.49-0.05-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.130.0952.1749.150.01-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.130.0923.8122.86-0.07-0.05
UABCUSA0.130.0983.3379.820.090.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.090.0981.8281.780.050.05
Cal PolyBW0.090.0828.5734.11-0.04-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.040.0854.5552.530.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.090.0845.8341.63-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.130.0829.1726.69-0.05-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0825.0025.08-0.04-0.04
MarquetteBE0.120.0864.0057.890.030.01
UTEPCUSA0.080.0854.1754.200.010.01
KentuckySEC0.120.0875.0072.610.060.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0845.0049.27-0.01-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0668.1867.730.030.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0660.8762.470.020.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.090.0631.8235.12-0.03-0.02
USCP120.090.0678.2673.130.050.03
UtahP120.090.0670.8368.520.040.02
DaytonA100.090.0686.9682.160.060.04
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0659.0955.160.020.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.040.0635.0034.83-0.01-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.040.0614.2920.64-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.069.0912.26-0.04-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.080.0679.1777.510.050.03
HamptonMEAC0.040.0659.0961.280.010.01
HofstraCAA0.080.0666.6766.770.030.02
HowardMEAC0.040.0636.3638.97-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.080.0625.0027.26-0.04-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0619.0525.90-0.00-0.03
Notre DameACC0.040.0670.8367.930.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0645.8342.30-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.040.0628.5732.75-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.040.0662.5063.450.010.02
UTSACUSA0.040.0613.0412.96-0.03-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.040.0631.5832.04-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.090.0666.6767.110.030.02
OregonP120.090.0679.1777.200.050.03
South CarolinaSEC0.040.0686.9680.420.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.040.0631.8230.08-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.040.0625.0024.93-0.02-0.03
George MasonA100.040.0633.3333.63-0.01-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0650.0049.760.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.040.0670.8367.970.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.040.0647.8351.92-0.000.00
MarylandB100.080.0687.5083.660.060.04
New OrleansSlnd0.040.0626.3232.40-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.040.0683.3378.380.030.03
RichmondA100.040.0656.5255.820.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0683.3381.280.050.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0673.9174.640.040.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.040.0672.2275.600.020.03
TowsonCAA0.040.0662.5057.730.010.01
UC DavisBW0.040.0638.1035.34-0.01-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.090.0645.4551.69-0.010.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.040.0668.1871.350.010.02
VirginiaACC0.040.0683.3378.460.030.03
Washington St.P120.040.0634.7831.64-0.01-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.040.0633.3330.63-0.01-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0525.0033.23-0.04-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0565.2268.600.030.02
GeorgetownBE0.040.0556.0052.870.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.040.0565.2260.600.010.01
LSUSEC0.040.0562.5059.080.010.01
MissouriSEC0.040.0533.3330.28-0.01-0.02
OaklandHorz0.040.0565.3865.510.010.02
St. John'sBE0.040.0525.0023.45-0.02-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.040.0550.0048.130.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0575.0075.340.040.03
VillanovaBE0.080.0587.5086.850.060.04
XavierBE0.040.0587.5081.850.030.03
HoustonAmer0.040.0370.8367.980.020.01
MemphisAmer0.040.0358.3359.310.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.040.0314.2915.44-0.03-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.040.0354.1753.810.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0383.3383.710.030.02
Chicago St.WAC0.050.034.357.72-0.04-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0357.1457.670.010.00
ElonCAA0.050.0350.0050.070.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0352.0048.920.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.050.0366.6763.780.020.01
Arizona St.P120.040.0354.1751.700.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.040.0331.8236.11-0.02-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0366.6767.670.020.01
CincinnatiAmer0.040.0372.0071.570.020.01
DenverSum0.040.0352.0049.300.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.040.0325.0026.38-0.02-0.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0330.0029.13-0.02-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.040.0329.1733.75-0.02-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.040.0329.1733.11-0.02-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.040.039.5212.09-0.04-0.02
OhioMAC0.040.0363.6461.470.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.040.0358.3363.180.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.040.0372.2274.700.020.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0327.2728.16-0.02-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.040.0338.1037.67-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.040.0336.3636.29-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.040.0352.1754.130.000.00
KansasB120.040.0382.6179.200.030.02
UCFAmer0.040.0350.0044.650.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.040.0382.6181.140.030.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0339.1335.45-0.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.040.0331.5831.01-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.040.0324.0024.92-0.02-0.01
FloridaSEC0.040.0366.6766.320.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.040.0354.1752.000.000.00
HartfordAE0.040.0324.0024.55-0.02-0.01
HarvardIvy0.040.0335.0038.57-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.040.0345.8344.07-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.040.0343.4842.40-0.01-0.00
Michigan St.B100.040.0380.0081.560.020.02
NJITASun0.040.0356.0055.640.000.00
North FloridaASun0.040.0362.5064.120.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.040.0317.6526.67-0.03-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.040.0358.3357.250.010.00
RiderMAAC0.040.0340.0042.04-0.01-0.00
StanfordP120.040.0347.6244.06-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.040.0360.8755.310.010.00
VanderbiltSEC0.040.0358.3359.970.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.040.0341.6739.90-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.040.0360.8756.270.010.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.040.0382.6181.130.030.02
NebraskaB100.040.0352.0050.760.000.00
NorthwesternB100.040.0364.0062.090.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.040.0326.9228.60-0.02-0.01
SeattleWAC0.040.0347.6245.02-0.00-0.00