live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Bracket Busters - Blog


Through games of Mar 17, 2013.

Evansville

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:106.0
Current RPI:106
Expected SOS:102
Current SOS:102
Current Record:17-14
Expected Record:17-14
Current Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-2
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:128
Expected OOC SOS:135


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-14106.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Evansville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Notre Dame (35.0)BEA58-49L0%0.0
11-15Buffalo (215.0)MACH50-56L0%0.0
11-16Yale (198.0)IvyH66-56W100%0.0
11-17Western Illinois (122.0)SumH49-44W100%0.0
11-20Tennessee Tech (242.0)OVCA50-62W100%0.0
11-26Alabama A&M (329.0)SWACH72-46W100%0.0
12-1Colorado St. (18.0)MWCA79-72L0%0.0
12-5Miami OH (258.0)MACH94-68W100%0.0
12-8Murray St. (110.0)OVCH70-82L0%0.0
12-15Alabama St. (328.0)SWACH80-67W100%0.0
12-22Butler (22.0)A10A75-67L0%0.0
12-29Creighton (25.0)MVCA87-70L0%0.0
1-2Missouri St. (203.0)MVCH62-59W100%0.0
1-5Southern Illinois (192.0)MVCH85-68W100%0.0
1-9Northern Iowa (83.0)MVCA59-62W100%0.0
1-13Wichita St. (37.0)MVCH71-67W100%0.0
1-16Drake (143.0)MVCA83-69L0%0.0
1-19Indiana St. (74.0)MVCA72-62L0%0.0
1-23Bradley (190.0)MVCH66-56W100%0.0
1-26Illinois St. (117.0)MVCA67-62L0%0.0
1-29Northern Iowa (83.0)MVCH54-51W100%0.0
2-2Missouri St. (203.0)MVCA62-61L0%0.0
2-5Bradley (190.0)MVCA76-70L0%0.0
2-10Drake (143.0)MVCH84-78W100%0.0
2-13Southern Illinois (192.0)MVCA65-56L0%0.0
2-16Creighton (25.0)MVCH68-71L0%0.0
2-20Illinois St. (117.0)MVCH79-62W100%0.0
2-23Wright St. (129.0)HorzA58-70W100%0.0
2-27Wichita St. (37.0)MVCA56-59W100%0.0
3-2Indiana St. (74.0)MVCH84-68W100%0.0
3-8Indiana St. (74.0)MVCN50-51L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Evansville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Evansville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Evansville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
EvansvilleMVC26.3626.3654.4754.472.362.36
Indiana St.MVC5.695.6953.5753.570.410.41
CreightonMVC4.274.2778.1278.122.402.40
Wichita St.MVC4.244.2481.2581.252.652.65
Missouri St.MVC4.214.2127.5927.59-1.89-1.89
Illinois St.MVC4.194.1954.8454.840.410.41
DrakeMVC4.184.1844.8344.83-0.43-0.43
Southern IllinoisMVC4.164.1642.8642.86-0.59-0.59
BradleyMVC4.144.1450.0050.000.000.00
Northern IowaMVC4.134.1358.6258.620.710.71
Miami OHMAC1.741.7427.5927.59-0.78-0.78
BuffaloMAC1.721.7235.4835.48-0.50-0.50
Alabama A&MSWAC1.721.7232.1432.14-0.61-0.61
Alabama St.SWAC1.671.6730.0030.00-0.67-0.67
YaleIvy1.671.6742.8642.86-0.24-0.24
Western IllinoisSum1.671.6774.0774.070.800.80
Murray St.OVC1.641.6464.2964.290.470.47
Tennessee TechOVC1.641.6438.4638.46-0.38-0.38
Wright St.Horz1.641.6464.5264.520.480.48
ButlerA101.611.6175.0075.000.810.81
Colorado St.MWC1.611.6173.3373.330.750.75
Notre DameBE1.611.6172.7372.730.730.73
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.240.2435.4835.48-0.07-0.07
IUPUISum0.210.2113.3313.33-0.15-0.15
DetroitHorz0.200.2060.0060.000.040.04
LouisvilleBE0.200.2085.2985.290.140.14
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.200.2028.0028.00-0.09-0.09
Morehead St.OVC0.190.1941.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.190.1953.1253.120.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.180.1851.6151.610.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.180.1866.6766.670.060.06
Ball St.MAC0.180.1848.2848.28-0.01-0.01
St. Mary'sWCC0.180.1881.2581.250.110.11
TulsaCUSA0.170.1751.6151.610.010.01
GramblingSWAC0.160.160.000.00-0.16-0.16
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.160.1617.8617.86-0.10-0.10
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.160.1620.0020.00-0.09-0.09
Bowling GreenMAC0.160.1636.6736.67-0.04-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.160.1678.1278.120.090.09
Central MichiganMAC0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
DaytonA100.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
AkronMAC0.150.1580.6580.650.090.09
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
SouthernSWAC0.140.1468.9768.970.050.05
Austin PeayOVC0.130.1320.6920.69-0.08-0.08
Jackson St.SWAC0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
New Orleansind0.130.1318.1818.18-0.08-0.08
NevadaMWC0.130.1336.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Fresno St.MWC0.130.1332.1432.14-0.05-0.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
New MexicoMWC0.130.1385.2985.290.090.09
Kent St.MAC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
St. LouisA100.130.1381.8281.820.080.08
Northern ColoradoBSky0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
BelmontOVC0.120.1280.0080.000.070.07
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.120.1257.6957.690.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.110.1128.1228.12-0.05-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Iowa St.B120.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
OhioMAC0.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
ToledoMAC0.100.1053.5753.570.010.01
Utah St.WAC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
WyomingMWC0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
XavierA100.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.100.1053.5753.570.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.100.1065.5265.520.030.03
CaliforniaP120.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
IowaB100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1067.8667.860.040.04
George WashingtonA100.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
South DakotaSum0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Western KentuckySB0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.080.0859.2659.260.010.01
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
PennsylvaniaIvy0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
BrownIvy0.080.0844.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
DenverWAC0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
High PointBSth0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
IonaMAAC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Miami FLACC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
MississippiSEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
UCLAP120.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
WinthropBSth0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
South FloridaBE0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiBE0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
MarquetteBE0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Virginia CommonwealthA100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
AuburnSEC0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
OaklandSum0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0629.6329.63-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
George MasonCAA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MemphisCUSA0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
TroySB0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Chicago St.GWC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
TempleA100.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
NebraskaB100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
North TexasSB0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
RutgersBE0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southern MississippiCUSA0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
BryantNEC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCAA0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Middle TennesseeSB0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
MontanaBSky0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
North FloridaASun0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
WashingtonP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
IdahoWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
UtahP120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Virginia Military InstBSth0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
CharlotteA100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
DuquesneA100.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
ElonSC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
FordhamA100.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0293.7593.750.020.02
IllinoisB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
IndianaB100.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Brigham YoungWCC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
ConnecticutBE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0210.0010.00-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
MonmouthNEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
PittsburghBE0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
PurdueB100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
SyracuseBE0.020.0274.2974.290.010.01
VillanovaBE0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00