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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Marshall

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:101.3
Current RPI:96
Expected SOS:152
Current SOS:160
Current Record:13-6
Expected Record:19-11
Current Conf Record:5-2
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-3
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:121
Expected OOC SOS:239



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-643.10.07%
23-751.80.51%
22-859.23.56%
21-969.911.64%
20-1083.422.81%
19-11100.127.33%
18-12119.420.76%
17-13140.710.02%
16-14162.12.78%
15-15182.30.46%
14-16207.20.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Marshall.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Tennessee Martin (301.8)OVCH102-91W100%0.0
11-13Southern (302.8)SWACH83-74W100%0.0
11-16Morehead St. (262.1)OVCA86-83L0%0.0
11-19Illinois (161.2)B10A91-74L0%0.0
11-22North Carolina Central (268.4)MEACH92-84W100%0.0
11-29William & Mary (95.1)CAAA114-104L0%0.0
12-2Akron (213.5)MACH86-64W100%0.0
12-5Chattanooga (287.0)SCH70-66W100%0.0
12-9Toledo (70.4)MACA87-93W100%0.0
12-16Ohio (173.1)MACH99-96W100%0.0
12-19Xavier (6.3)BEA81-77L0%0.0
12-22Eastern Kentucky (270.1)OVCH91-71W100%0.0
12-28Southern Miss (223.2)CUSAH85-66W100%0.0
12-30Louisiana Tech (159.7)CUSAH78-65W100%0.0
1-6Western Kentucky (45.3)CUSAH87-112L0%0.0
1-11Charlotte (301.7)CUSAA83-91W100%0.0
1-13Old Dominion (73.6)CUSAA82-76L0%0.0
1-18Middle Tennessee (32.7)CUSAH73-63W100%0.0
1-20UAB (126.6)CUSAH86-78W100%0.0
1-27Western Kentucky (45.3)CUSAA0-021%-9.2
2-1UTSA (248.7)CUSAA0-056%1.7
2-3UTEP (283.4)CUSAA0-060%2.9
2-8FIU (287.9)CUSAH0-085%11.3
2-10Florida Atlantic (239.8)CUSAH0-085%11.3
2-15Rice (321.9)CUSAA0-075%7.6
2-17North Texas (217.4)CUSAA0-055%1.3
2-22Old Dominion (73.6)CUSAH0-043%-2.1
2-24Charlotte (301.7)CUSAH0-087%12.5
3-1UAB (126.6)CUSAA0-026%-7.3
3-3Middle Tennessee (32.7)CUSAA0-018%-10.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Marshall's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Marshall's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Marshall.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MarshallCUSA26.3926.1568.1265.599.568.15
Western KentuckyCUSA3.224.0966.6769.461.071.59
Old DominionCUSA2.864.0177.7876.611.592.13
UABCUSA2.994.0064.7166.130.881.29
CharlotteCUSA2.844.0025.0027.11-1.42-1.83
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.923.9776.4777.221.552.16
Louisiana TechCUSA2.852.3655.5657.260.320.34
FIUCUSA0.292.3635.2936.28-0.09-0.65
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.292.3637.5038.54-0.07-0.54
Southern MissCUSA2.852.3643.7539.95-0.36-0.47
RiceCUSA0.362.3411.1117.43-0.28-1.52
North TexasCUSA0.292.3144.4446.70-0.03-0.15
UTEPCUSA0.152.3133.3333.91-0.05-0.74
UTSACUSA0.152.3041.1839.49-0.03-0.48
Tennessee MartinOVC3.151.9327.7832.63-1.40-0.67
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.771.8733.3333.89-0.92-0.60
ChattanoogaSC2.931.8423.5329.61-1.55-0.75
AkronMAC2.851.8450.0046.510.00-0.13
OhioMAC2.771.8450.0050.140.000.01
Morehead St.OVC2.761.8118.7525.94-1.73-0.87
ToledoMAC2.791.7870.5970.041.150.71
IllinoisB102.861.7644.4442.35-0.32-0.27
SouthernSWAC2.851.7529.4142.44-1.17-0.27
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.841.7546.6756.19-0.190.22
William & MaryCAA2.701.7262.5058.450.680.29
XavierBE2.711.7085.0079.411.901.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.380.2742.1143.51-0.06-0.03
BelmontOVC0.210.2671.4374.660.090.13
James MadisonCAA0.300.2425.0028.24-0.15-0.10
Jacksonville St.OVC0.440.2170.0068.220.180.07
Tennessee St.OVC0.140.2135.2940.48-0.04-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.210.2044.4446.00-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.220.2072.2274.930.100.10
Bowling GreenMAC0.150.2058.8249.760.03-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.370.1857.8953.190.060.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.150.1857.8966.260.020.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.230.1710.5316.75-0.18-0.12
Murray St.OVC0.140.1770.5975.950.060.09
Kent St.MAC0.210.1744.4444.92-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.220.1744.4446.02-0.02-0.01
TowsonCAA0.150.1563.1665.970.040.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.150.1441.1839.16-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.220.140.0010.67-0.22-0.11
Miami OHMAC0.000.1447.0641.410.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.150.1462.5058.690.040.02
Ball St.MAC0.080.1461.1158.700.020.02
WisconsinB100.200.1450.0046.300.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.1266.6765.640.030.04
South FloridaAmer0.080.1235.0026.12-0.02-0.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.1215.7920.91-0.05-0.07
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.220.1229.4133.93-0.09-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.220.1236.8432.76-0.06-0.04
Missouri St.MVC0.140.1270.0068.300.060.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.220.1218.7536.82-0.14-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.220.1116.6724.26-0.14-0.06
AuburnSEC0.150.1189.4777.000.120.06
MississippiSEC0.140.1152.6345.860.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.220.1121.0539.48-0.13-0.02
NebraskaB100.070.1166.6759.820.020.02
IowaB100.220.1147.6244.02-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.220.1138.8943.43-0.05-0.01
DaytonA100.220.1147.3750.94-0.010.00
RichmondA100.140.1131.5834.36-0.05-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.150.1152.9452.230.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.150.1146.6746.97-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.130.1194.7490.310.120.09
ElonCAA0.080.0952.6351.080.000.00
George MasonA100.230.0945.0041.30-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.080.0910.5327.29-0.06-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0950.0052.460.000.00
High PointBSth0.150.0943.7549.23-0.02-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.140.0920.0041.73-0.08-0.01
TroySB0.150.0935.2942.76-0.04-0.01
DavidsonA100.150.0958.8261.450.030.02
Wake ForestACC0.150.0942.1140.46-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.140.0930.0036.50-0.06-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0936.8444.11-0.02-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.140.0933.3333.77-0.05-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.150.0952.9460.220.010.02
USCP120.150.0971.4368.280.060.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0983.3384.240.050.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.150.0921.0544.26-0.08-0.01
ButlerBE0.140.0866.6763.070.050.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.140.0877.7879.150.080.05
PurdueB100.070.0890.4888.370.060.06
Wright St.Horz0.140.0868.4269.250.050.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.0868.4254.070.000.01
DePaulBE0.130.0842.1134.31-0.02-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.150.0645.0049.29-0.02-0.00
DelawareCAA0.080.0647.3743.02-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.060.009.09-0.08-0.05
DrexelCAA0.080.0630.0030.99-0.03-0.02
HofstraCAA0.080.0657.8959.490.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0655.5656.740.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.080.0663.1663.220.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0627.7834.50-0.03-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0622.2227.330.00-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.080.0650.0045.870.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0627.7831.11-0.03-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.160.069.5217.90-0.13-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.150.0652.6347.520.01-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0610.0019.63-0.06-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0628.5731.26-0.04-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.150.0672.2258.920.070.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.150.0666.6773.210.050.03
Texas TechB120.000.0678.9571.810.000.03
UCFAmer0.150.0668.4260.860.060.01
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0642.1132.47-0.01-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0668.4254.090.030.00
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0627.7827.10-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.150.0670.0071.230.060.02
MichiganB100.150.0676.1970.740.080.02
MinnesotaB100.070.0663.6457.630.020.01
Ohio St.B100.080.0680.9576.520.050.03
OklahomaB120.000.0677.7867.910.000.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0661.1151.910.000.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0657.8950.210.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.0612.5025.450.00-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0633.3337.23-0.03-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.150.0652.6351.690.010.00
FurmanSC0.070.0666.6768.540.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.070.0666.6765.520.020.02
MemphisAmer0.070.0665.0058.540.020.01
MercerSC0.070.0644.4454.86-0.010.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0677.7870.480.040.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0645.0048.560.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0637.5045.24-0.02-0.01
SamfordSC0.070.0627.7832.66-0.03-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0680.0078.850.040.03
The CitadelSC0.070.0618.7518.36-0.05-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0668.7567.600.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0660.0062.030.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0645.0045.030.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0636.8435.57-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.000.0625.0024.150.00-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0638.8935.37-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.070.0668.7563.690.030.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.150.0620.0023.34-0.09-0.03
MarylandB100.150.0670.0065.250.060.02
UNLVMWC0.070.0673.6865.260.030.02
BaylorB120.140.0661.1156.090.030.01
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0638.8944.08-0.02-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0657.8950.710.000.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0685.0083.200.000.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0650.0051.380.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0655.0046.690.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.070.0670.0070.570.030.02
TempleAmer0.070.0652.6351.740.000.00
VCUA100.070.0660.0059.700.010.01
CreightonBE0.060.0575.0070.700.030.02
MarquetteBE0.060.0568.4260.550.020.01
ProvidenceBE0.060.0570.0060.470.030.01
Seton HallBE0.060.0575.0067.890.030.02
St. John'sBE0.060.0547.3742.16-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.080.0373.6869.640.040.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0342.1146.00-0.01-0.00
IUPUIHorz0.080.0327.7829.83-0.03-0.01
LipscombASun0.080.0352.9459.340.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0329.4139.63-0.03-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0358.8257.140.010.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0327.7831.710.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.080.0373.6872.380.040.01
TCUB120.080.0373.6865.600.040.01
Virginia TechACC0.080.0368.4257.740.030.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0321.0523.51-0.04-0.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0365.0057.880.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0327.7838.140.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0350.0045.930.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.035.8819.350.00-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0345.0047.070.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0331.5835.150.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0333.3336.930.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.037.6923.280.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0355.0053.320.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0366.6766.020.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.070.0368.4258.980.030.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0378.9576.990.000.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0325.0031.45-0.03-0.01
ClemsonACC0.080.0384.2173.240.050.01
DukeACC0.070.0389.4785.210.060.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0338.8946.05-0.02-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0352.6343.110.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.037.6920.090.00-0.02
IonaMAAC0.080.0360.0064.110.020.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0350.0054.890.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0383.3381.370.050.02
LSUSEC0.070.0361.1153.170.020.00
Montana St.BSky0.070.0350.0047.660.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0342.1144.96-0.01-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0344.4450.310.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.037.1414.820.00-0.02
Oregon St.P120.070.0357.8950.840.010.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0363.1657.540.000.00
TexasB120.070.0363.1657.630.020.00
TulaneAmer0.070.0363.1657.890.020.00
UMKCWAC0.070.0321.0524.75-0.04-0.01
Washington St.P120.000.0347.3741.440.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.070.0361.1156.830.020.00
CornellIvy0.070.0333.3333.23-0.02-0.01
DetroitHorz0.070.0321.0525.97-0.04-0.01
KansasB120.070.0384.2179.750.050.02
LongwoodBSth0.070.0316.6716.16-0.05-0.02
MissouriSEC0.070.0366.6763.200.020.01
NorthwesternB100.070.0355.0050.330.010.00
OaklandHorz0.070.0361.9065.160.020.01
PennIvy0.070.0364.7162.720.020.01
Penn St.B100.000.0361.9055.760.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0350.0051.640.000.00
SyracuseACC0.070.0368.4261.230.030.01
Arizona St.P120.060.0378.9576.130.040.01
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0389.4785.550.050.02
ColoradoP120.060.0360.0053.720.010.00
George WashingtonA100.060.0345.0043.48-0.01-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0344.4450.08-0.010.00
RiderMAAC0.060.0365.0065.320.020.01