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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Marshall

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:276.0
Current RPI:276
Expected SOS:173
Current SOS:173
Current Record:9-22
Expected Record:9-22
Current Conf Record:5-13
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-4
Current OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:289
Expected OOC SOS:215



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-22276.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Marshall.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACH85-69W100%0.0
11-17Morehead St. (141.0)OVCA102-94L0%0.0
11-21Stephen F. Austin (52.0)SlndH73-80L0%0.0
11-23UNC Wilmington (281.0)CAAH96-78W100%0.0
11-26Western Kentucky (125.0)SBH74-64W100%0.0
11-30East Tennessee St. (206.0)ASunA88-78L0%0.0
12-5Vanderbilt (120.0)SECA69-67L0%0.0
12-7Penn St. (114.0)B10A90-77L0%0.0
12-14West Virginia (88.0)B12N64-74L0%0.0
12-21Arkansas St. (180.0)SBH82-83L0%0.0
12-30South Carolina (140.0)SECA92-65L0%0.0
1-2Akron (93.0)MACA59-58L0%0.0
1-5Presbyterian (349.0)BSthH77-49W100%0.0
1-9UTSA (306.0)CUSAA90-81L0%0.0
1-11UTEP (103.0)CUSAA66-56L0%0.0
1-16North Texas (195.0)CUSAH65-80L0%0.0
1-18Tulsa (73.0)CUSAH52-69L0%0.0
1-23Rice (299.0)CUSAA63-73W100%0.0
1-25Louisiana Tech (62.0)CUSAA98-77L0%0.0
1-30FIU (202.0)CUSAH80-68W100%0.0
2-1Florida Atlantic (270.0)CUSAH57-65L0%0.0
2-7Southern Miss (33.0)CUSAA60-57L0%0.0
2-9Tulane (223.0)CUSAA68-65L0%0.0
2-15Charlotte (151.0)CUSAA56-59W100%0.0
2-20UAB (152.0)CUSAH62-68L0%0.0
2-22Middle Tennessee (64.0)CUSAH53-56L0%0.0
2-27Old Dominion (170.0)CUSAA70-63L0%0.0
3-2East Carolina (216.0)CUSAH64-61W100%0.0
3-6Charlotte (151.0)CUSAH70-74L0%0.0
3-11Florida Atlantic (270.0)CUSAN59-63W100%0.0
3-12Old Dominion (170.0)CUSAN73-58L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Marshall's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Marshall's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Marshall.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MarshallCUSA25.9725.9726.6226.62-12.14-12.14
Old DominionCUSA3.793.7945.1645.16-0.37-0.37
CharlotteCUSA3.733.7355.1755.170.390.39
Florida AtlanticCUSA3.683.6825.0025.00-1.84-1.84
Louisiana TechCUSA2.202.2078.1278.121.241.24
East CarolinaCUSA2.192.1946.4346.43-0.16-0.16
Southern MissCUSA2.192.1980.0080.001.321.32
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.192.1970.0070.000.880.88
TulsaCUSA2.172.1762.5062.500.540.54
North TexasCUSA2.172.1742.8642.86-0.31-0.31
UTEPCUSA2.152.1566.6766.670.720.72
TulaneCUSA2.142.1448.3948.39-0.07-0.07
UABCUSA2.142.1453.5753.570.150.15
FIUCUSA2.142.1448.1548.15-0.08-0.08
UTSACUSA2.112.1119.2319.23-1.30-1.30
RiceCUSA2.112.1118.5218.52-1.33-1.33
South CarolinaSEC1.751.7539.3939.39-0.37-0.37
East Tennessee St.ASun1.741.7451.6151.610.060.06
Western KentuckySB1.741.7463.3363.330.470.47
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.741.7424.1424.14-0.90-0.90
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.691.6992.8692.861.451.45
West VirginiaB121.691.6951.6151.610.050.05
PresbyterianBSth1.691.6913.7913.79-1.22-1.22
AkronMAC1.691.6962.5062.500.420.42
Arkansas St.SB1.661.6655.1755.170.170.17
Morehead St.OVC1.661.6656.6756.670.220.22
South Carolina St.MEAC1.641.6425.9325.93-0.79-0.79
VanderbiltSEC1.641.6446.6746.67-0.11-0.11
Penn St.B101.611.6145.1645.16-0.16-0.16
Georgia St.SB0.320.3274.1974.190.150.15
Arkansas Little RockSB0.210.2143.3343.33-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.190.1928.5728.57-0.08-0.08
NortheasternCAA0.180.1834.3834.38-0.06-0.06
MississippiSEC0.180.1857.5857.580.030.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.160.1648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.160.1620.6920.69-0.09-0.09
TexasB120.160.1669.7069.700.060.06
Georgia SouthernSC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.160.1664.5264.520.050.05
Texas A&MSEC0.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.150.1541.9441.94-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.140.1425.8125.81-0.07-0.07
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.130.1324.0024.00-0.07-0.07
NebraskaB100.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.130.1348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
JacksonvilleASun0.130.1335.7135.71-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
Louisiana MonroeSB0.130.1334.6234.62-0.04-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Kansas St.B120.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
OklahomaB120.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
Murray St.OVC0.130.1359.2659.260.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.1116.6716.67-0.07-0.07
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.1183.8783.870.070.07
MichiganB100.110.1175.7675.760.050.05
SamfordSC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
HofstraCAA0.110.1130.3030.30-0.04-0.04
ElonSC0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.110.1181.2581.250.070.07
Oral RobertsSlnd0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
BelmontOVC0.100.1071.8871.880.050.05
LSUSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
LipscombASun0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
MissouriSEC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.100.1014.2914.29-0.07-0.07
FloridaSEC0.100.1094.1294.120.090.09
TCUB120.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
AuburnSEC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0953.5753.570.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0946.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0830.7730.77-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0814.8114.81-0.06-0.06
HarvardIvy0.080.0886.2186.210.060.06
LamarSlnd0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
CampbellBSth0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
James MadisonCAA0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
LouisvilleAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
DePaulBE0.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Appalachian St.SC0.080.0819.2319.23-0.05-0.05
DetroitHorz0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
MarylandACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
IowaB100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
KansasB120.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
North FloridaASun0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
MinnesotaB100.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
PurdueB100.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.070.0780.6580.650.050.05
BaylorB120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
OhioMAC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
VMIBSth0.050.0555.5655.560.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0570.3770.370.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
LibertyBSth0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
DavidsonSC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0546.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
DuquesneA100.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
MercerASun0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
IdahoWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RutgersAmer0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.2121.21-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
XavierBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
BucknellPat0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
ColgatePat0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
La SalleA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
WashingtonP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
CreightonBE0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Green BayHorz0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
UICHorz0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00