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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Marshall

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:296.0
Current RPI:296
Expected SOS:178
Current SOS:178
Current Record:9-21
Expected Record:9-21
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-8
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:327
Expected OOC SOS:227



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-21296.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Marshall.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Jacksonville St. (304.0)OVCH74-55W100%0.0
11-16Savannah St. (331.0)MEACH66-47W100%0.0
11-21Louisville (21.0)ACCA85-67L0%0.0
11-26Morehead St. (201.0)OVCH68-77L0%0.0
11-28Cleveland St. (127.0)HorzH59-68L0%0.0
12-1South Carolina (91.0)SECH59-77L0%0.0
12-6Penn St. (108.0)B10H69-73L0%0.0
12-14West Virginia (24.0)B12N69-66L0%0.0
12-20Arkansas St. (277.0)SBA67-58L0%0.0
12-22Nevada (306.0)MWCA83-55L0%0.0
12-30Akron (115.0)MACA70-63L0%0.0
1-4Western Kentucky (117.0)CUSAA81-62L0%0.0
1-8Old Dominion (46.0)CUSAH51-72L0%0.0
1-10Charlotte (211.0)CUSAH72-77L0%0.0
1-15FIU (217.0)CUSAA66-62L0%0.0
1-17Florida Atlantic (303.0)CUSAA76-62L0%0.0
1-22UTSA (237.0)CUSAH68-82L0%0.0
1-24UTEP (78.0)CUSAH78-71W100%0.0
1-29Southern Miss (283.0)CUSAA54-69W100%0.0
1-31Louisiana Tech (58.0)CUSAA81-57L0%0.0
2-5Rice (247.0)CUSAH69-55W100%0.0
2-7North Texas (224.0)CUSAH80-73W100%0.0
2-14Western Kentucky (117.0)CUSAH87-82W100%0.0
2-19Middle Tennessee (138.0)CUSAA90-51L0%0.0
2-21UAB (130.0)CUSAA72-54L0%0.0
2-26FIU (217.0)CUSAH87-69W100%0.0
2-28Florida Atlantic (303.0)CUSAH79-63W100%0.0
3-5Old Dominion (46.0)CUSAA67-50L0%0.0
3-7Charlotte (211.0)CUSAA86-73L0%0.0
3-11Western Kentucky (117.0)CUSAN59-45L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Marshall's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Marshall's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Marshall.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MarshallCUSA26.2126.2124.6024.60-13.31-13.31
Western KentuckyCUSA5.715.7159.2659.261.061.06
FIUCUSA4.084.0844.8344.83-0.42-0.42
CharlotteCUSA4.084.0840.0040.00-0.82-0.82
Old DominionCUSA4.024.0275.8675.862.082.08
Florida AtlanticCUSA3.983.9824.0024.00-2.07-2.07
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.552.5551.5251.520.080.08
UABCUSA2.522.5253.1253.120.160.16
RiceCUSA2.412.4135.7135.71-0.69-0.69
UTEPCUSA2.392.3970.9770.971.001.00
Louisiana TechCUSA2.382.3874.1974.191.151.15
North TexasCUSA2.382.3842.8642.86-0.34-0.34
UTSACUSA2.362.3640.7440.74-0.44-0.44
Southern MissCUSA2.292.2926.9226.92-1.06-1.06
LouisvilleACC1.891.8974.1974.190.910.91
Jacksonville St.OVC1.801.8035.7135.71-0.51-0.51
Morehead St.OVC1.781.7845.1645.16-0.17-0.17
Cleveland St.Horz1.751.7551.7251.720.060.06
Savannah St.MEAC1.751.7525.0025.00-0.87-0.87
Penn St.B101.741.7451.5251.520.050.05
South CarolinaSEC1.741.7448.3948.39-0.06-0.06
AkronMAC1.741.7457.5857.580.260.26
Arkansas St.SB1.671.6733.3333.33-0.56-0.56
NevadaMWC1.671.6721.4321.43-0.95-0.95
West VirginiaB121.671.6770.9770.970.700.70
BelmontOVC0.220.2267.7467.740.080.08
Miami FLACC0.210.2163.6463.640.060.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.200.2060.7160.710.040.04
LSUSEC0.190.1968.7568.750.070.07
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.190.1923.3323.33-0.10-0.10
Murray St.OVC0.190.1983.3383.330.130.13
Bowling GreenMAC0.160.1666.6766.670.050.05
MinnesotaB100.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
GeorgiaSEC0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
Austin PeayOVC0.140.1421.4321.43-0.08-0.08
MississippiSEC0.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.130.1310.3410.34-0.11-0.11
UNC AshevilleBSth0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
StetsonASun0.120.1221.4321.43-0.07-0.07
South AlabamaSB0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
ElonCAA0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.110.1167.8667.860.040.04
UNLVMWC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.110.116.906.90-0.10-0.10
Tennessee MartinOVC0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
ToledoMAC0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
BaylorB120.100.1071.8871.880.050.05
North CarolinaACC0.100.1068.5768.570.040.04
Ohio St.B100.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Kent St.MAC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
TroySB0.090.0929.6329.63-0.04-0.04
Texas St.SB0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.090.0941.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Washington St.P120.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
Chicago St.WAC0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
DetroitHorz0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0883.3383.330.060.06
AlabamaSEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Green BayHorz0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
OaklandHorz0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.080.0874.2974.290.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Kansas St.B120.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Texas TechB120.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
VirginiaACC0.080.0890.6290.620.060.06
George MasonA100.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
IndianaB100.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
PurdueB100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0827.2727.27-0.04-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
KentuckySEC0.080.08100.00100.000.080.08
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
George WashingtonA100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.070.0791.1891.180.060.06
BuffaloMAC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.060.0674.0774.070.030.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
UCFAmer0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
LamarSlnd0.060.0642.3142.31-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0675.8675.860.030.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
San Jose St.MWC0.060.060.000.00-0.06-0.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
WyomingMWC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
IonaMAAC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
HartfordAE0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
RichmondA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
AmericanPat0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
SyracuseACC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
CornellIvy0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
MarylandB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
RutgersB100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
USCP120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0362.9662.960.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0318.7518.75-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
PacificWCC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0386.6786.670.020.02
TulaneAmer0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
LafayettePat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
VMISC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
WoffordSC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
BucknellPat0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0271.4371.430.010.01
DuquesneA100.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
FordhamA100.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
MichiganB100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02