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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Marshall

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:208.0
Current RPI:208
Expected SOS:127
Current SOS:127
Current Record:12-19
Expected Record:12-19
Current Conf Record:6-11
Expected Conf Record:6-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-3
Current OOC Record:6-8
Expected OOC Record:6-8
Expected OOC RPI:270
Expected OOC SOS:248



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-19208.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Marshall.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Longwood (332.0)BSthH81-47W100%0.0
11-11Villanova (52.0)BEA80-68L0%0.0
11-17South Dakota St. (62.0)SumN77-78L0%0.0
11-18Hofstra (325.0)CAAA103-100L0%0.0
11-24Nevada (171.0)MWCH89-82W100%0.0
11-28Morehead St. (172.0)OVCH70-67W100%0.0
12-1NC Wilmington (301.0)CAAH61-58W100%0.0
12-5West Virginia (146.0)B12N69-59L0%0.0
12-8Coppin St. (313.0)MEACH69-63W100%0.0
12-15Cincinnati (50.0)BEH56-72L0%0.0
12-19Savannah St. (166.0)MEACH64-48W100%0.0
12-22Kentucky (56.0)SECA82-54L0%0.0
1-2Delaware St. (263.0)MEACH51-53L0%0.0
1-5Ohio (67.0)MACA94-57L0%0.0
1-9Tulsa (127.0)CUSAH79-61W100%0.0
1-12Texas El Paso (95.0)CUSAA74-63L0%0.0
1-19East Carolina (100.0)CUSAH77-56W100%0.0
1-23Southern Mississippi (31.0)CUSAA102-46L0%0.0
1-26Memphis (12.0)CUSAA73-72L0%0.0
1-30Southern Methodist (219.0)CUSAH57-68L0%0.0
2-2Central Florida (103.0)CUSAH75-71W100%0.0
2-6Tulane (175.0)CUSAA91-75L0%0.0
2-9UAB (144.0)CUSAA75-61L0%0.0
2-13Rice (324.0)CUSAH71-70W100%0.0
2-16Memphis (12.0)CUSAH59-71L0%0.0
2-20Central Florida (103.0)CUSAA70-82W100%0.0
2-23UAB (144.0)CUSAH48-52L0%0.0
3-2Houston (197.0)CUSAA103-76L0%0.0
3-5Southern Mississippi (31.0)CUSAH88-84W100%0.0
3-9East Carolina (100.0)CUSAA86-79L0%0.0
3-13Tulane (175.0)CUSAN66-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Marshall's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Marshall's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Marshall.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MarshallCUSA26.1326.1332.5232.52-9.13-9.13
MemphisCUSA4.004.0087.5087.503.003.00
Southern MississippiCUSA3.993.9973.3373.331.861.86
UABCUSA3.923.9243.3343.33-0.52-0.52
Central FloridaCUSA3.853.8566.6766.671.281.28
East CarolinaCUSA3.843.8454.1754.170.320.32
TulaneCUSA3.833.8353.3353.330.260.26
TulsaCUSA2.302.3053.3353.330.150.15
Texas El PasoCUSA2.272.2754.8454.840.220.22
Southern MethodistCUSA2.272.2743.3343.33-0.30-0.30
HoustonCUSA2.242.2458.6258.620.390.39
RiceCUSA2.212.2114.2914.29-1.58-1.58
HofstraCAA1.771.7716.6716.67-1.18-1.18
Savannah St.MEAC1.691.6956.6756.670.230.23
NC WilmingtonCAA1.691.6932.1432.14-0.60-0.60
Morehead St.OVC1.691.6943.3343.33-0.23-0.23
OhioMAC1.691.6971.8871.880.740.74
Coppin St.MEAC1.661.6623.3323.33-0.89-0.89
Delaware St.MEAC1.641.6440.0040.00-0.33-0.33
KentuckySEC1.641.6464.5264.520.480.48
South Dakota St.Sum1.641.6470.0070.000.660.66
CincinnatiBE1.641.6465.6265.620.510.51
VillanovaBE1.641.6458.0658.060.260.26
LongwoodBSth1.611.6120.0020.00-0.97-0.97
NevadaMWC1.611.6137.9337.93-0.39-0.39
West VirginiaB121.611.6138.7138.71-0.36-0.36
Norfolk St.MEAC0.240.2465.6265.620.080.08
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.240.2437.5037.50-0.06-0.06
Georgia St.CAA0.220.2246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.210.2120.6920.69-0.12-0.12
HamptonMEAC0.210.2145.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Texas ChristianB120.210.2132.2632.26-0.07-0.07
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.200.207.147.14-0.18-0.18
CampbellBSth0.190.1936.6736.67-0.05-0.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.190.1920.6920.69-0.11-0.11
South FloridaBE0.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
DelawareCAA0.180.1857.5857.580.030.03
BelmontOVC0.160.1680.0080.000.090.09
NortheasternCAA0.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.150.1552.9452.940.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.150.1525.0025.00-0.07-0.07
LouisvilleBE0.150.1585.2985.290.100.10
Old DominionCAA0.140.1416.6716.67-0.09-0.09
TowsonCAA0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
FloridaSEC0.130.1378.7978.790.080.08
Middle TennesseeSB0.130.1384.8584.850.090.09
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1370.9770.970.050.05
OaklandSum0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
VanderbiltSEC0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PittsburghBE0.130.1375.0075.000.060.06
OklahomaB120.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
RutgersBE0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
DrexelCAA0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Chicago St.GWC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Long IslandNEC0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
PurdueB100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1067.8667.860.040.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1014.2914.29-0.07-0.07
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
WagnerNEC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.100.1071.4371.430.040.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
Virginia Military InstBSth0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
CreightonMVC0.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
LibertyBSth0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
GeorgetownBE0.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
AkronMAC0.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
Notre DameBE0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
ProvidenceBE0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
NC GreensboroSC0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
MassachusettsA100.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
George MasonCAA0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
NC AshevilleBSth0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
South DakotaSum0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
GramblingSWAC0.080.080.000.00-0.08-0.08
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
RadfordBSth0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
MarylandACC0.080.0864.7164.710.020.02
OregonP120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
MarquetteBE0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Seton HallBE0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
BaylorB120.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
St. John'sBE0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
SyracuseBE0.070.0774.2974.290.040.04
ConnecticutBE0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Loyola MDMAAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
MinnesotaB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
North FloridaASun0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Virginia CommonwealthA100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
LipscombASun0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
XavierA100.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Appalachian St.SC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
CharlotteA100.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Miami FLACC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
StetsonASun0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
DavidsonSC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Houston BaptistGWC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
TempleA100.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
RichmondA100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticSB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
MonmouthNEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
DenverWAC0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Kansas St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0514.8114.81-0.04-0.04
Louisiana TechWAC0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
PepperdineWCC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
TroySB0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
DePaulBE0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
HartfordAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
New Orleansind0.030.0318.1818.18-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
PacificBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.WAC0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
YaleIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
FurmanSC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
IowaB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0328.0028.00-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southern CaliforniaP120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
St. LouisA100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0385.1985.190.020.02
Texas St.WAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
DuquesneA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0393.7593.750.020.02
IdahoWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.030.0348.0048.00-0.00-0.00
PennsylvaniaIvy0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00