Marshall

Conference:	CUSA
Expected RPI:	87.0
Current RPI:	87
Expected SOS:	165
Current SOS:	165
Current Record:	23-10
Expected Record:	23-10
Current Conf Record:	15-6
Expected Conf Record:	15-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	16-1
Current OOC Record:	8-4
Expected OOC Record:	8-4
Expected OOC RPI:	133
Expected OOC SOS:	275

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
23-10	87.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Marshall.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Tennessee Martin (306.0)	OVC	H	102-91	W	100%
11-13	Southern (315.0)	SWAC	H	83-74	W	100%
11-16	Morehead St. (292.0)	OVC	A	86-83	L	0%
11-19	Illinois (181.0)	B10	A	91-74	L	0%
11-22	North Carolina Central (279.0)	MEAC	H	92-84	W	100%
11-29	William & Mary (94.0)	CAA	A	114-104	L	0%
12-2	Akron (227.0)	MAC	H	86-64	W	100%
12-5	Chattanooga (304.0)	SC	H	70-66	W	100%
12-9	Toledo (75.0)	MAC	A	87-93	W	100%
12-16	Ohio (204.0)	MAC	H	99-96	W	100%
12-19	Xavier (3.0)	BE	A	81-77	L	0%
12-22	Eastern Kentucky (271.0)	OVC	H	91-71	W	100%
12-28	Southern Miss (207.0)	CUSA	H	85-66	W	100%
12-30	Louisiana Tech (192.0)	CUSA	H	78-65	W	100%
1-6	Western Kentucky (39.0)	CUSA	H	87-112	L	0%
1-11	Charlotte (323.0)	CUSA	A	83-91	W	100%
1-13	Old Dominion (78.0)	CUSA	A	82-76	L	0%
1-18	Middle Tennessee (33.0)	CUSA	H	73-63	W	100%
1-20	UAB (155.0)	CUSA	H	86-78	W	100%
1-27	Western Kentucky (39.0)	CUSA	A	85-74	L	0%
2-1	UTSA (187.0)	CUSA	A	81-77	L	0%
2-3	UTEP (293.0)	CUSA	A	65-74	W	100%
2-8	FIU (295.0)	CUSA	H	76-66	W	100%
2-10	Florida Atlantic (275.0)	CUSA	H	79-68	W	100%
2-15	Rice (328.0)	CUSA	A	80-93	W	100%
2-17	North Texas (235.0)	CUSA	A	72-74	W	100%
2-22	Old Dominion (78.0)	CUSA	H	79-84	L	0%
2-24	Charlotte (323.0)	CUSA	H	103-75	W	100%
3-1	UAB (155.0)	CUSA	A	91-77	L	0%
3-3	Middle Tennessee (33.0)	CUSA	A	67-76	W	100%
3-8	UTSA (187.0)	CUSA	N	95-81	W	100%
3-9	Southern Miss (207.0)	CUSA	N	85-75	W	100%
3-10	Western Kentucky (39.0)	CUSA	N	66-67	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Marshall's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Marshall's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Marshall.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Marshall	CUSA	26.26	26.26	72.26	72.26	11.69	11.69
Western Kentucky	CUSA	5.35	5.35	70.00	70.00	2.14	2.14
UAB	CUSA	3.82	3.82	58.62	58.62	0.66	0.66
Old Dominion	CUSA	3.80	3.80	76.67	76.67	2.03	2.03
Southern Miss	CUSA	3.78	3.78	42.86	42.86	-0.54	-0.54
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	3.75	3.75	82.14	82.14	2.41	2.41
Charlotte	CUSA	3.69	3.69	19.23	19.23	-2.27	-2.27
UTSA	CUSA	3.68	3.68	53.57	53.57	0.26	0.26
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	2.31	2.31	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
FIU	CUSA	2.24	2.24	39.29	39.29	-0.48	-0.48
UTEP	CUSA	2.24	2.24	34.48	34.48	-0.70	-0.70
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	2.24	2.24	33.33	33.33	-0.75	-0.75
North Texas	CUSA	2.19	2.19	44.83	44.83	-0.23	-0.23
Rice	CUSA	2.19	2.19	17.86	17.86	-1.41	-1.41
Tennessee Martin	OVC	1.75	1.75	28.57	28.57	-0.75	-0.75
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	1.72	1.72	32.14	32.14	-0.61	-0.61
Ohio	MAC	1.68	1.68	44.83	44.83	-0.17	-0.17
Chattanooga	SC	1.67	1.67	26.67	26.67	-0.78	-0.78
Akron	MAC	1.66	1.66	43.33	43.33	-0.22	-0.22
Morehead St.	OVC	1.64	1.64	19.23	19.23	-1.01	-1.01
Toledo	MAC	1.61	1.61	68.75	68.75	0.61	0.61
Illinois	B10	1.59	1.59	40.00	40.00	-0.32	-0.32
North Carolina Central	MEAC	1.59	1.59	53.33	53.33	0.11	0.11
Southern	SWAC	1.59	1.59	43.33	43.33	-0.21	-0.21
William & Mary	CAA	1.56	1.56	57.14	57.14	0.22	0.22
Xavier	BE	1.54	1.54	84.38	84.38	1.06	1.06
Belmont	OVC	0.25	0.25	72.73	72.73	0.12	0.12
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.23	0.23	41.38	41.38	-0.04	-0.04
James Madison	CAA	0.23	0.23	29.03	29.03	-0.10	-0.10
Austin Peay	OVC	0.20	0.20	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.19	0.19	75.76	75.76	0.10	0.10
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.18	0.18	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.18	0.18	62.50	62.50	0.05	0.05
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.17	0.17	9.68	9.68	-0.14	-0.14
Miami OH	MAC	0.17	0.17	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.17	0.17	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.17	0.17	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.16	0.16	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.16	0.16	82.76	82.76	0.10	0.10
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.15	0.15	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Towson	CAA	0.15	0.15	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.15	0.15	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.14	0.14	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.14	0.14	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	CAA	0.13	0.13	77.42	77.42	0.07	0.07
Nebraska	B10	0.12	0.12	68.75	68.75	0.05	0.05
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.12	0.12	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Iowa	B10	0.12	0.12	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.12	0.12	12.50	12.50	-0.09	-0.09
Central Michigan	MAC	0.12	0.12	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.12	0.12	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Missouri St.	MVC	0.12	0.12	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.12	0.12	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.11	0.11	88.24	88.24	0.09	0.09
South Florida	Amer	0.11	0.11	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.11	0.11	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.11	0.11	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi	SEC	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Troy	SB	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.10	0.10	16.67	16.67	-0.06	-0.06
Richmond	A10	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Purdue	B10	0.09	0.09	82.35	82.35	0.06	0.06
Wright St.	Horz	0.09	0.09	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
High Point	BSth	0.08	0.08	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Elon	CAA	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Texas St.	SB	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
George Mason	A10	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.07	0.07	83.33	83.33	0.05	0.05
Princeton	Ivy	0.07	0.07	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
USC	P12	0.07	0.07	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	15.62	15.62	-0.05	-0.05
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.07	0.07	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Butler	BE	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Samford	SC	0.07	0.07	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.07	0.07	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
DePaul	BE	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.07	0.07	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
SMU	Amer	0.07	0.07	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
East Carolina	Amer	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UT Arlington	SB	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
UCF	Amer	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
UNLV	MWC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.05	30.77	30.77	-0.02	-0.02
Tulsa	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Appalachian St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.04	-0.04
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Memphis	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Mercer	SC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	Slnd	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
VMI	SC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.35	32.35	-0.02	-0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Temple	Amer	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
VCU	A10	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Creighton	BE	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
IUPUI	Horz	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
LSU	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	8.00	8.00	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
TCU	B12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.02	0.02	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.02	0.02	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Tulane	Amer	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Colorado	P12	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Cornell	Ivy	0.02	0.02	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas	B12	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Oakland	Horz	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Penn	Ivy	0.02	0.02	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	ACC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.00	0.00