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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Marshall

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:87.0
Current RPI:87
Expected SOS:165
Current SOS:165
Current Record:23-10
Expected Record:23-10
Current Conf Record:15-6
Expected Conf Record:15-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-1
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:133
Expected OOC SOS:275



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-1087.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Marshall.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Tennessee Martin (306.0)OVCH102-91W100%0.0
11-13Southern (315.0)SWACH83-74W100%0.0
11-16Morehead St. (292.0)OVCA86-83L0%0.0
11-19Illinois (181.0)B10A91-74L0%0.0
11-22North Carolina Central (279.0)MEACH92-84W100%0.0
11-29William & Mary (94.0)CAAA114-104L0%0.0
12-2Akron (227.0)MACH86-64W100%0.0
12-5Chattanooga (304.0)SCH70-66W100%0.0
12-9Toledo (75.0)MACA87-93W100%0.0
12-16Ohio (204.0)MACH99-96W100%0.0
12-19Xavier (3.0)BEA81-77L0%0.0
12-22Eastern Kentucky (271.0)OVCH91-71W100%0.0
12-28Southern Miss (207.0)CUSAH85-66W100%0.0
12-30Louisiana Tech (192.0)CUSAH78-65W100%0.0
1-6Western Kentucky (39.0)CUSAH87-112L0%0.0
1-11Charlotte (323.0)CUSAA83-91W100%0.0
1-13Old Dominion (78.0)CUSAA82-76L0%0.0
1-18Middle Tennessee (33.0)CUSAH73-63W100%0.0
1-20UAB (155.0)CUSAH86-78W100%0.0
1-27Western Kentucky (39.0)CUSAA85-74L0%0.0
2-1UTSA (187.0)CUSAA81-77L0%0.0
2-3UTEP (293.0)CUSAA65-74W100%0.0
2-8FIU (295.0)CUSAH76-66W100%0.0
2-10Florida Atlantic (275.0)CUSAH79-68W100%0.0
2-15Rice (328.0)CUSAA80-93W100%0.0
2-17North Texas (235.0)CUSAA72-74W100%0.0
2-22Old Dominion (78.0)CUSAH79-84L0%0.0
2-24Charlotte (323.0)CUSAH103-75W100%0.0
3-1UAB (155.0)CUSAA91-77L0%0.0
3-3Middle Tennessee (33.0)CUSAA67-76W100%0.0
3-8UTSA (187.0)CUSAN95-81W100%0.0
3-9Southern Miss (207.0)CUSAN85-75W100%0.0
3-10Western Kentucky (39.0)CUSAN66-67W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Marshall's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Marshall's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Marshall.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MarshallCUSA26.2626.2672.2672.2611.6911.69
Western KentuckyCUSA5.355.3570.0070.002.142.14
UABCUSA3.823.8258.6258.620.660.66
Old DominionCUSA3.803.8076.6776.672.032.03
Southern MissCUSA3.783.7842.8642.86-0.54-0.54
Middle TennesseeCUSA3.753.7582.1482.142.412.41
CharlotteCUSA3.693.6919.2319.23-2.27-2.27
UTSACUSA3.683.6853.5753.570.260.26
Louisiana TechCUSA2.312.3150.0050.000.000.00
FIUCUSA2.242.2439.2939.29-0.48-0.48
UTEPCUSA2.242.2434.4834.48-0.70-0.70
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.242.2433.3333.33-0.75-0.75
North TexasCUSA2.192.1944.8344.83-0.23-0.23
RiceCUSA2.192.1917.8617.86-1.41-1.41
Tennessee MartinOVC1.751.7528.5728.57-0.75-0.75
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.721.7232.1432.14-0.61-0.61
OhioMAC1.681.6844.8344.83-0.17-0.17
ChattanoogaSC1.671.6726.6726.67-0.78-0.78
AkronMAC1.661.6643.3343.33-0.22-0.22
Morehead St.OVC1.641.6419.2319.23-1.01-1.01
ToledoMAC1.611.6168.7568.750.610.61
IllinoisB101.591.5940.0040.00-0.32-0.32
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.591.5953.3353.330.110.11
SouthernSWAC1.591.5943.3343.33-0.21-0.21
William & MaryCAA1.561.5657.1457.140.220.22
XavierBE1.541.5484.3884.381.061.06
BelmontOVC0.250.2572.7372.730.120.12
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.230.2341.3841.38-0.04-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.230.2329.0329.03-0.10-0.10
Austin PeayOVC0.200.2053.3353.330.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.190.1975.7675.760.100.10
Tennessee St.OVC0.180.1846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.180.1862.5062.500.050.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.170.179.689.68-0.14-0.14
Miami OHMAC0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.170.1746.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.170.1737.9337.93-0.04-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.160.1682.7682.760.100.10
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.150.1564.5264.520.040.04
TowsonCAA0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.150.1548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.140.1458.6258.620.020.02
WisconsinB100.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.130.1377.4277.420.070.07
NebraskaB100.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.120.1212.5012.50-0.09-0.09
Central MichiganMAC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Missouri St.MVC0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
VillanovaBE0.110.1188.2488.240.090.09
South FloridaAmer0.110.1131.2531.25-0.04-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
MississippiSEC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
TroySB0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
DaytonA100.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1016.6716.67-0.06-0.06
RichmondA100.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.090.0982.3582.350.060.06
Wright St.Horz0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
High PointBSth0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
George MasonA100.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0783.3383.330.050.05
PrincetonIvy0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
USCP120.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0715.6215.62-0.05-0.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
HowardMEAC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
ButlerBE0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
SamfordSC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
DePaulBE0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0760.7160.710.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
SMUAmer0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
St. John'sBE0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
UCFAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Miami FLACC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0532.0032.00-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.056.676.67-0.04-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Fort WayneSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
FurmanSC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
IndianaB100.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
MercerSC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Michigan St.B100.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
VMISC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0532.3532.35-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
TempleAmer0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
VCUA100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
CreightonBE0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
IUPUIHorz0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
HartfordAE0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
LSUSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.038.008.00-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
StetsonASun0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0312.5012.50-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Washington St.P120.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
DukeACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
MissouriSEC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
TulaneAmer0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Arizona St.P120.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
ColoradoP120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
CornellIvy0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
PennIvy0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
SyracuseACC0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00