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Through games of Nov 26, 2014.


Marshall

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:190.7
Current RPI:193
Expected SOS:135
Current SOS:154
Current Record:2-2
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-3
Current OOC Record:2-2
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:206
Expected OOC SOS:133



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-862.00.05%
20-976.70.15%
19-1090.20.52%
18-11103.31.54%
17-12119.64.44%
16-13135.17.14%
15-14152.912.12%
14-15170.215.41%
13-16190.216.99%
12-17209.616.30%
11-18229.011.67%
10-19248.77.68%
9-20266.43.59%
8-21283.81.68%
7-22296.20.55%
6-23310.60.13%
5-24324.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Marshall.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Jacksonville St. (283.4)OVCH74-55W100%0.0
11-16Savannah St. (298.0)MEACH66-47W100%0.0
11-21Louisville (13.1)ACCA85-67L0%0.0
11-26Morehead St. (136.9)OVCH68-77L0%0.0
11-28Cleveland St. (147.4)HorzH0-051%0.5
12-1South Carolina (92.0)SECH0-033%-5.4
12-6Penn St. (130.4)B10H0-048%-0.5
12-14West Virginia (28.4)B12N0-013%-13.3
12-20Arkansas St. (278.4)SBA0-057%2.1
12-22Nevada (187.5)MWCA0-031%-5.8
12-30Akron (99.4)MACA0-022%-9.3
1-4Western Kentucky (192.4)CUSAA0-039%-3.3
1-8Old Dominion (79.5)CUSAH0-037%-3.9
1-10Charlotte (75.0)CUSAH0-036%-4.2
1-15FIU (208.3)CUSAA0-047%-1.0
1-17Florida Atlantic (245.7)CUSAA0-048%-0.6
1-22UTSA (296.9)CUSAH0-081%10.4
1-24UTEP (78.7)CUSAH0-038%-3.7
1-29Southern Miss (156.5)CUSAA0-036%-4.3
1-31Louisiana Tech (75.6)CUSAA0-017%-11.4
2-5Rice (260.3)CUSAH0-079%9.6
2-7North Texas (223.0)CUSAH0-073%7.2
2-14Western Kentucky (192.4)CUSAH0-063%3.9
2-19Middle Tennessee (168.8)CUSAA0-037%-4.1
2-21UAB (199.9)CUSAA0-042%-2.5
2-26FIU (208.3)CUSAH0-070%6.2
2-28Florida Atlantic (245.7)CUSAH0-071%6.6
3-5Old Dominion (79.5)CUSAA0-018%-11.0
3-7Charlotte (75.0)CUSAA0-017%-11.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Marshall's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Marshall's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Marshall.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MarshallCUSA30.1026.1737.5042.82-7.53-3.76
Western KentuckyCUSA0.004.2025.0041.23-0.00-0.74
CharlotteCUSA0.004.1860.0066.990.001.42
FIUCUSA0.004.1550.0043.060.00-0.58
Old DominionCUSA0.004.1280.0074.670.002.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.004.110.0038.82-0.00-0.92
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.002.4866.6749.120.00-0.04
UABCUSA0.002.4825.0039.79-0.00-0.51
North TexasCUSA0.002.4575.0039.240.00-0.53
RiceCUSA0.002.4533.3330.81-0.00-0.94
Louisiana TechCUSA1.042.4380.0071.450.621.04
UTEPCUSA0.002.40100.0072.890.001.10
UTSACUSA0.002.4033.3329.64-0.00-0.98
Southern MissCUSA0.002.3966.6750.370.000.02
LouisvilleACC15.311.94100.0078.4515.311.10
Jacksonville St.OVC13.751.8733.3332.84-4.58-0.64
Morehead St.OVC12.501.8420.0057.55-7.500.28
Cleveland St.Horz4.061.8125.0049.14-2.03-0.03
AkronMAC0.001.8160.0065.780.000.57
Savannah St.MEAC13.751.8150.0034.840.00-0.55
Penn St.B100.001.8183.3348.290.00-0.06
South CarolinaSEC0.001.8150.0050.960.000.03
Arkansas St.SB0.001.720.0034.52-0.00-0.53
NevadaMWC0.001.7225.0042.45-0.00-0.26
West VirginiaB120.001.72100.0069.150.000.66
Miami FLACC0.000.23100.0079.800.000.13
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.250.21100.0057.481.250.03
BelmontOVC0.000.2180.0076.610.000.11
LSUSEC0.000.2160.0055.990.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.200.0027.68-0.00-0.09
Georgia St.SB0.000.1560.0067.690.000.05
Murray St.OVC0.000.1533.3367.86-0.000.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.15100.0061.670.000.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.150.0025.37-0.00-0.07
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1525.0052.61-0.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.15100.0061.400.000.03
MinnesotaB101.250.1550.0055.290.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1260.0056.970.000.02
StetsonASun0.000.120.0030.90-0.00-0.05
South AlabamaSB0.000.120.0039.18-0.00-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.120.0030.92-0.00-0.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.120.0018.42-0.00-0.08
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1250.0051.010.000.00
ElonCAA0.000.1240.0039.53-0.00-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1250.0036.120.00-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.1266.6756.860.000.02
ToledoMAC0.000.1240.0060.24-0.000.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1250.0027.510.00-0.05
Ohio St.B100.000.11100.0074.750.000.06
JacksonvilleASun0.000.090.0025.58-0.00-0.05
Colorado St.MWC0.000.09100.0068.200.000.03
Texas St.SB0.000.0966.6746.630.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.090.0043.61-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0933.3357.92-0.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0920.0043.55-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0980.0058.430.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0933.3345.47-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0975.0052.920.000.01
UNLVMWC1.040.0975.0051.700.520.00
WinthropBSth1.250.0933.3353.30-0.420.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0975.0056.120.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0925.0051.72-0.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.09100.0079.750.000.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0925.0033.19-0.00-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0966.6741.320.00-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.090.0036.09-0.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.000.0975.0077.520.000.05
OaklandHorz0.000.0916.6726.44-0.00-0.04
TexasB120.000.09100.0080.270.000.05
ClemsonACC0.000.0960.0050.770.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0950.0064.230.000.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0914.2931.08-0.00-0.03
TCUB120.000.09100.0061.120.000.02
KentuckySEC0.000.09100.0089.070.000.07
VCUA100.000.0980.0073.080.000.04
IndianaB100.000.0980.0057.110.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0950.0046.630.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0975.0067.420.000.03
Texas TechB120.000.0975.0045.520.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.09100.0086.460.000.06
BaylorB120.000.09100.0070.110.000.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0975.0062.480.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.09100.0073.600.000.04
George MasonA100.000.0920.0021.73-0.00-0.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0966.6747.140.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.08100.0065.430.000.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0840.0053.46-0.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0875.0069.280.000.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.08100.0049.260.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0860.0036.000.00-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0625.0036.41-0.00-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0042.16-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0625.0035.38-0.00-0.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0666.6773.440.000.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0650.0071.940.000.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.060.0051.96-0.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0650.0032.470.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.0666.6740.010.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.000.0633.3329.54-0.00-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0620.0050.03-0.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0666.6750.220.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0018.95-0.00-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0625.0039.67-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.060.0023.00-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0066.35-0.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0660.0039.490.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0683.3384.530.000.04
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.0019.26-0.00-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0035.63-0.00-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0650.0065.760.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0660.0051.520.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0660.0055.090.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.06100.0069.580.000.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0650.0047.310.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0022.25-0.00-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0625.0047.86-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0680.0079.380.000.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.06100.0045.580.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0620.0036.68-0.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.64-0.00-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.060.0031.85-0.00-0.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0660.0037.550.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer1.040.06100.0061.081.040.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0660.0058.400.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0680.0071.650.000.03
HartfordAE0.000.0680.0051.800.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0620.0031.23-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0633.3330.11-0.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.060.0049.14-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0620.0034.26-0.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.060.0034.53-0.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0625.0044.18-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0044.110.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0666.6751.210.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0675.0055.290.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0650.0040.550.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0625.0051.07-0.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6739.87-0.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0683.3368.600.000.02
AmericanPat1.040.0666.6759.500.350.01
PresbyterianBSth1.040.060.0022.89-1.04-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0035.41-0.00-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0625.0026.31-0.00-0.03
CornellIvy0.000.0642.8640.94-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0036.14-0.00-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0625.0039.50-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0675.0064.180.000.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0640.0057.50-0.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0675.0066.110.000.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0625.0036.66-0.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0666.6751.430.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0650.0064.050.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0666.6753.510.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0640.0026.51-0.00-0.03
SyracuseACC0.000.0680.0068.140.000.02
USCP120.000.0650.0028.760.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0640.0038.08-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0666.6761.870.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0061.350.000.01
KansasB120.000.0666.6759.280.000.01
MarylandB100.000.06100.0071.860.000.02
OklahomaB120.000.0675.0064.910.000.02
RutgersB100.000.0650.0024.520.00-0.03
PittsburghACC0.000.0660.0057.880.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0366.6760.360.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0024.09-0.00-0.02
MercerSC0.000.0333.3354.15-0.000.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0350.0042.760.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0033.69-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0075.690.000.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.03100.0052.660.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0350.0040.810.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0037.52-0.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0060.350.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0320.0034.64-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0016.41-0.00-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0333.3350.63-0.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0031.47-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0380.0062.960.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0333.3335.63-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0380.0070.250.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0060.970.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0316.6745.77-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0325.0045.71-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0015.65-0.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0350.0050.040.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0360.0055.640.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0333.3330.18-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0325.0048.11-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.000.0333.3331.37-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.03100.0064.150.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0375.0055.330.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.030.0068.13-0.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0366.6739.850.00-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0325.0052.85-0.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC1.560.030.0032.51-1.56-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.030.0062.99-0.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0366.6758.830.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0350.0064.920.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0350.0068.710.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0340.0036.41-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0340.0052.52-0.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.030.0052.30-0.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0350.0058.990.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0068.260.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0053.810.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0340.0048.44-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0316.6731.72-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0333.3346.13-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.000.0333.3346.61-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0054.940.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0052.420.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0350.0047.220.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0048.64-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3335.00-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0360.0050.320.000.00
UMBCAE0.000.030.0027.57-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0333.3335.82-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0333.3338.74-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0375.0069.010.000.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0083.600.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.03100.0054.340.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0340.0038.71-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.030.0026.01-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0065.110.000.01
IowaB100.000.0366.6765.830.000.01
LafayettePat0.000.0360.0060.080.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0375.0066.610.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0375.0072.040.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0350.0052.150.000.00
NebraskaB100.000.0375.0053.300.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0383.3339.590.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0383.3369.220.000.01
VMISC0.000.0325.0036.44-0.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0366.6751.600.000.00
WoffordSC0.000.0380.0077.430.000.02