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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Marshall

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:128.0
Current RPI:128
Expected SOS:97
Current SOS:97
Current Record:17-16
Expected Record:17-16
Current Conf Record:13-7
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-2
Current OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:195
Expected OOC SOS:32



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-16128.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Marshall.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-19Tennessee (143.0)SECA84-74L0%0.0
11-24Morehead St. (127.0)OVCA85-61L0%0.0
11-27James Madison (103.0)CAAH75-89L0%0.0
12-1Ohio (81.0)MACA85-70L0%0.0
12-4Akron (34.0)MACH65-75L0%0.0
12-6James Madison (103.0)CAAA107-84L0%0.0
12-9Eastern Illinois (271.0)OVCH82-76W100%0.0
12-12Eastern Kentucky (211.0)OVCH96-72W100%0.0
12-14North Carolina Central (310.0)MEACH92-73W100%0.0
12-17West Virginia (10.0)B12N68-86L0%0.0
12-21Wyoming (187.0)MWCN82-90W100%0.0
12-22Grand Canyon (91.0)WACN81-85L0%0.0
12-27Maryland (14.0)B10A87-67L0%0.0
1-3Western Kentucky (153.0)CUSAH94-76W100%0.0
1-7Florida Atlantic (300.0)CUSAH90-67W100%0.0
1-9FIU (270.0)CUSAH99-81W100%0.0
1-14North Texas (295.0)CUSAA78-97W100%0.0
1-16Rice (279.0)CUSAA90-94W100%0.0
1-21Charlotte (234.0)CUSAA103-95L0%0.0
1-23Old Dominion (140.0)CUSAA75-78W100%0.0
1-28Middle Tennessee (78.0)CUSAH82-66W100%0.0
1-30UAB (88.0)CUSAH78-81L0%0.0
2-4UTEP (215.0)CUSAA112-108L0%0.0
2-6UTSA (347.0)CUSAA91-109W100%0.0
2-13Western Kentucky (153.0)CUSAA93-96W100%0.0
2-18Charlotte (234.0)CUSAH87-72W100%0.0
2-20Old Dominion (140.0)CUSAH82-65W100%0.0
2-25UAB (88.0)CUSAA95-91L0%0.0
2-27Middle Tennessee (78.0)CUSAA83-74L0%0.0
3-3Louisiana Tech (122.0)CUSAH94-97L0%0.0
3-5Southern Miss (314.0)CUSAH108-106W100%0.0
3-10UTEP (215.0)CUSAN87-85W100%0.0
3-11Middle Tennessee (78.0)CUSAN99-90L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Marshall's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Marshall's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Marshall.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MarshallCUSA26.2326.2351.7251.720.900.90
Middle TennesseeCUSA5.195.1971.4371.432.232.23
Western KentuckyCUSA3.823.8253.3353.330.250.25
Old DominionCUSA3.793.7966.6766.671.261.26
CharlotteCUSA3.713.7141.9441.94-0.60-0.60
UABCUSA3.683.6879.3179.312.162.16
UTEPCUSA3.623.6256.6756.670.480.48
James MadisonCAA3.083.0862.0762.070.740.74
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.312.3123.3323.33-1.23-1.23
FIUCUSA2.292.2937.9337.93-0.55-0.55
Louisiana TechCUSA2.202.2068.9768.970.830.83
North TexasCUSA2.192.1934.4834.48-0.68-0.68
RiceCUSA2.192.1934.4834.48-0.68-0.68
UTSACUSA2.152.1513.7913.79-1.56-1.56
Southern MissCUSA2.152.1526.9226.92-0.99-0.99
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.691.6948.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Morehead St.OVC1.621.6257.1457.140.230.23
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.591.5940.7440.74-0.29-0.29
West VirginiaB121.591.5975.7675.760.820.82
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.571.5735.7135.71-0.45-0.45
AkronMAC1.561.5675.0075.000.780.78
OhioMAC1.561.5663.3363.330.420.42
TennesseeSEC1.541.5442.4242.42-0.23-0.23
Grand CanyonWAC1.521.5278.5778.570.870.87
MarylandB101.521.5274.1974.190.730.73
WyomingMWC1.521.5241.3841.38-0.26-0.26
BelmontOVC0.250.2563.3363.330.070.07
Tennessee St.OVC0.250.2564.2964.290.070.07
Murray St.OVC0.230.2351.7251.720.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.230.2354.8454.840.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.190.1962.0762.070.050.05
AuburnSEC0.190.1935.4835.48-0.05-0.05
BuffaloMAC0.190.1957.5857.580.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.180.1820.6920.69-0.10-0.10
New Mexico St.WAC0.170.1767.7467.740.060.06
ElonCAA0.170.1746.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.170.1748.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.140.1458.6258.620.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.130.1321.4321.43-0.08-0.08
Tennessee TechOVC0.130.1360.7160.710.030.03
South AlabamaSB0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.120.1222.2222.22-0.07-0.07
Ball St.MAC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.120.1276.6776.670.070.07
HofstraCAA0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
NortheasternCAA0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
ToledoMAC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.120.1243.7543.75-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
RichmondA100.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.1111.1111.11-0.08-0.08
HoustonAmer0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
SouthernSWAC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
TroySB0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
SeattleWAC0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.100.1018.5218.52-0.06-0.06
San Diego St.MWC0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
DelawareCAA0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
DrexelCAA0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
TowsonCAA0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1016.6716.67-0.06-0.06
Kent St.MAC0.090.0958.0658.060.020.02
MichiganB100.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
PurdueB100.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
TCUB120.090.0936.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0872.4172.410.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0822.8622.86-0.04-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
Green BayHorz0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
Ohio St.B100.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Texas St.SB0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Michigan St.B100.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
Virginia TechACC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
TexasB120.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
NebraskaB100.070.0747.0647.06-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
KansasB120.070.0787.8887.880.050.05
OklahomaB120.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0529.1729.17-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.053.453.45-0.05-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
UNLVMWC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0582.1482.140.030.03
USC UpstateASun0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
StetsonASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Washington St.P120.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
XavierBE0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Miami FLACC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
SyracuseACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
BaylorB120.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
FloridaSEC0.040.0457.5857.580.010.01
Iowa St.B120.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
Kansas St.B120.040.0451.5251.520.000.00
LSUSEC0.040.0457.5857.580.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.040.0437.5037.50-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.040.0474.1974.190.020.02
Texas TechB120.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.040.0421.8821.88-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.040.0479.4179.410.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0335.2935.29-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
TulsaAmer0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
UCFAmer0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
IowaB100.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0282.3582.350.020.02
Penn St.B100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0239.3939.39-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
VillanovaBE0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
ArmyPat0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
ButlerBE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
VirginiaACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01