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Through games of Jan 31, 2015.


Marshall

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:296.5
Current RPI:298
Expected SOS:152
Current SOS:150
Current Record:4-16
Expected Record:7-22
Current Conf Record:2-7
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-7
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:318
Expected OOC SOS:205



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-17222.70.03%
11-18238.40.61%
10-19256.93.29%
9-20274.411.78%
8-21289.424.36%
7-22300.929.50%
6-23309.921.45%
5-24316.47.79%
4-25322.01.18%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Marshall.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Jacksonville St. (313.2)OVCH74-55W100%0.0
11-16Savannah St. (331.3)MEACH66-47W100%0.0
11-21Louisville (13.0)ACCA85-67L0%0.0
11-26Morehead St. (222.2)OVCH68-77L0%0.0
11-28Cleveland St. (123.6)HorzH59-68L0%0.0
12-1South Carolina (77.5)SECH59-77L0%0.0
12-6Penn St. (111.1)B10H69-73L0%0.0
12-14West Virginia (19.6)B12N69-66L0%0.0
12-20Arkansas St. (268.0)SBA67-58L0%0.0
12-22Nevada (292.8)MWCA83-55L0%0.0
12-30Akron (96.4)MACA70-63L0%0.0
1-4Western Kentucky (80.3)CUSAA81-62L0%0.0
1-8Old Dominion (43.0)CUSAH51-72L0%0.0
1-10Charlotte (172.1)CUSAH72-77L0%0.0
1-15FIU (197.9)CUSAA66-62L0%0.0
1-17Florida Atlantic (237.4)CUSAA76-62L0%0.0
1-22UTSA (246.2)CUSAH68-82L0%0.0
1-24UTEP (84.8)CUSAH78-71W100%0.0
1-29Southern Miss (305.6)CUSAA54-69W100%0.0
1-31Louisiana Tech (75.0)CUSAA81-57L0%0.0
2-5Rice (289.5)CUSAH0-060%2.8
2-7North Texas (264.8)CUSAH0-063%3.5
2-14Western Kentucky (80.3)CUSAH0-031%-5.6
2-19Middle Tennessee (157.8)CUSAA0-021%-8.8
2-21UAB (158.7)CUSAA0-019%-9.7
2-26FIU (197.9)CUSAH0-054%1.2
2-28Florida Atlantic (237.4)CUSAH0-054%1.1
3-5Old Dominion (43.0)CUSAA0-06%-17.5
3-7Charlotte (172.1)CUSAA0-014%-12.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Marshall's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Marshall's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Marshall.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MarshallCUSA26.2726.1717.0221.06-17.32-15.15
Western KentuckyCUSA3.084.2066.6765.281.031.28
CharlotteCUSA2.904.1840.0046.22-0.58-0.32
Old DominionCUSA2.774.1180.0078.891.662.38
FIUCUSA2.824.0841.1843.00-0.50-0.57
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.754.0533.3338.39-0.92-0.94
UABCUSA0.582.4947.6250.77-0.030.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.592.4952.3852.390.030.12
North TexasCUSA0.382.4438.8934.81-0.08-0.74
RiceCUSA0.382.4423.5325.33-0.20-1.20
Louisiana TechCUSA2.822.4275.0073.611.411.14
UTEPCUSA2.762.3970.0071.631.111.04
UTSACUSA2.752.3941.1841.10-0.49-0.43
Southern MissCUSA2.752.3823.5320.74-1.46-1.39
LouisvilleACC2.821.9485.0079.691.971.15
Jacksonville St.OVC2.741.8733.3330.95-0.91-0.71
Morehead St.OVC2.621.8433.3341.11-0.87-0.33
Cleveland St.Horz2.681.8150.0054.270.000.15
Savannah St.MEAC2.681.8116.6724.02-1.78-0.94
AkronMAC2.621.8168.4265.000.970.54
Penn St.B102.621.8161.9052.260.620.08
South CarolinaSEC2.621.8150.0051.820.000.07
Arkansas St.SB2.501.7236.8437.22-0.66-0.44
NevadaMWC2.501.7217.6522.50-1.62-0.95
West VirginiaB122.501.7285.0074.931.750.86
Miami FLACC0.250.2370.0065.890.100.07
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.260.2252.6360.480.010.05
BelmontOVC0.120.2166.6764.950.040.06
LSUSEC0.320.2176.1967.840.170.07
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.260.2019.0525.57-0.16-0.10
Georgia St.SB0.250.1566.6769.040.080.06
Murray St.OVC0.180.1580.9581.980.110.10
Bowling GreenMAC0.250.1572.2268.690.110.06
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.1514.2914.78-0.04-0.10
MinnesotaB100.180.1559.0955.340.030.02
Oklahoma St.B120.070.1465.0059.110.020.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.180.1444.4448.67-0.02-0.00
StetsonASun0.150.1321.0524.70-0.09-0.06
GeorgiaSEC0.140.1370.0064.270.060.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.120.003.52-0.07-0.11
Georgia SouthernSB0.130.1275.0072.790.070.06
South AlabamaSB0.130.1225.0028.45-0.07-0.05
ElonCAA0.140.1242.8641.77-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.180.1225.0024.39-0.09-0.06
Wright St.Horz0.130.1245.0046.64-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.1238.1040.95-0.01-0.02
ToledoMAC0.180.1261.9060.170.040.02
Appalachian St.SB0.180.1242.1138.99-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.120.1177.2777.460.060.06
JacksonvilleASun0.130.1019.0518.75-0.08-0.06
Texas St.SB0.130.0941.1843.77-0.02-0.01
TroySB0.130.0933.3333.42-0.04-0.03
Washington St.P120.130.0947.6239.12-0.01-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.140.0931.5831.34-0.05-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.140.0960.0059.190.030.02
Air ForceMWC0.130.0936.8436.52-0.03-0.02
MississippiSEC0.130.0966.6764.710.040.03
UNLVMWC0.200.0957.1455.960.030.01
WinthropBSth0.190.0944.4450.36-0.020.00
Colorado St.MWC0.130.0985.7182.060.090.06
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.120.0947.3754.12-0.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0955.5654.050.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0976.1971.460.000.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.180.0957.8960.230.030.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.130.0923.8134.41-0.07-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.060.0963.1667.030.020.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.170.0957.1454.710.020.01
Green BayHorz0.120.0975.0075.520.060.05
OaklandHorz0.180.0940.0043.84-0.04-0.01
ClemsonACC0.190.0961.9054.070.050.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.0956.5257.100.020.01
TCUB120.190.0966.6758.520.060.01
TexasB120.060.0966.6764.990.020.03
KentuckySEC0.130.09100.0098.420.130.08
VCUA100.120.0980.9579.010.070.05
IndianaB100.180.0972.7366.680.080.03
Kansas St.B120.130.0954.5546.520.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.120.0950.0039.860.00-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0961.9062.150.010.02
Kent St.MAC0.060.0970.0064.720.020.03
BaylorB120.070.0975.0071.710.030.04
Iowa St.B120.130.0980.0070.910.080.04
VirginiaACC0.060.0995.0091.130.050.07
George MasonA100.120.0931.5830.42-0.04-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.120.0955.0053.850.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.0860.8757.630.030.01
North CarolinaACC0.120.0877.2774.970.060.04
WisconsinB100.060.0890.4888.270.050.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.120.0826.0929.52-0.06-0.03
George WashingtonA100.120.0872.7368.500.050.03
Georgia TechACC0.060.0847.6245.06-0.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.180.0842.8636.75-0.03-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0733.3331.17-0.03-0.02
HarvardIvy0.080.0768.7569.630.030.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0759.0962.480.010.02
UCFAmer0.080.0740.0039.33-0.02-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.140.0626.3228.59-0.07-0.03
LamarSlnd0.060.0641.1838.51-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0625.0035.18-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0635.0037.26-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0610.0014.17-0.05-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0642.1147.26-0.01-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0665.0068.010.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.140.0640.0037.61-0.03-0.02
HartfordAE0.070.0647.6248.60-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0627.2727.43-0.03-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0638.1038.01-0.02-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0668.4275.790.020.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0645.0042.78-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0676.1976.490.000.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.001.43-0.00-0.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0631.8234.59-0.00-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.070.0659.0963.450.010.02
USC UpstateASun0.070.0665.0066.400.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0655.0054.480.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.070.0655.0055.140.010.01
WyomingMWC0.070.0680.0073.740.040.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.0663.1661.830.030.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0645.0049.35-0.01-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.120.060.003.31-0.12-0.06
IonaMAAC0.060.0672.7375.260.030.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0645.0037.75-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.130.0635.0034.77-0.04-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0610.0019.57-0.05-0.04
CreightonBE0.000.0643.4838.74-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0613.3317.04-0.04-0.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0614.2917.22-0.04-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0633.3332.33-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.0636.8437.56-0.03-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.0640.0039.51-0.02-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.070.0665.0055.020.020.01
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0680.9579.380.040.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0633.3333.58-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.060.0640.9140.80-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.130.0647.6253.91-0.010.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0619.0526.06-0.04-0.03
PurdueB100.120.0663.6460.040.030.01
AmericanPat0.120.0652.3854.050.010.00
AuburnSEC0.070.0645.0037.85-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0675.0073.880.030.03
FloridaSEC0.070.0657.1456.520.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.120.0615.7915.85-0.08-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.120.0635.2930.55-0.04-0.02
CornellIvy0.120.0647.3747.37-0.01-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.110.0644.4446.70-0.01-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.120.0635.0039.94-0.03-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0670.0068.150.000.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0661.9060.960.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0652.6353.920.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0635.0032.55-0.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0647.6251.62-0.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.120.0652.3861.790.010.01
OhioMAC0.000.0636.8435.46-0.00-0.02
RichmondA100.060.0657.1460.410.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0635.0045.71-0.02-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.130.0657.8955.720.020.01
SyracuseACC0.060.0666.6758.780.020.01
USCP120.120.0645.0038.92-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.120.0645.0040.95-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.060.0672.2273.480.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.060.0671.4367.480.030.02
KansasB120.000.0685.7177.830.000.03
MarylandB100.000.0681.8276.540.000.03
OklahomaB120.060.0666.6768.000.020.02
PittsburghACC0.060.0661.9055.030.010.01
RutgersB100.110.0643.4836.37-0.01-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0340.0037.11-0.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0335.7133.63-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0355.0056.280.010.00
MercerSC0.000.0347.6252.00-0.000.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0365.0059.830.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.070.0373.6869.970.030.01
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0322.2225.53-0.04-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0350.0047.440.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0325.0031.77-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0368.4269.350.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.070.0344.4448.13-0.01-0.00
CaliforniaP120.070.0357.1447.870.01-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.070.0338.1038.64-0.02-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0344.4446.08-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0314.2918.51-0.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0335.0037.17-0.02-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0366.6763.050.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0315.0019.83-0.04-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0359.0962.580.010.01
PacificWCC0.070.0335.0030.78-0.02-0.01
Seton HallBE0.070.0371.4365.190.030.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0383.3384.640.000.02
TulaneAmer0.070.0357.1451.350.010.00
Weber St.BSky0.070.0336.8442.01-0.02-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0323.5329.22-0.03-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0360.0065.370.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0357.8958.650.010.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0361.9061.480.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0330.0028.64-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.070.0352.3857.760.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0350.0054.030.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0336.3640.39-0.02-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0066.870.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0350.0051.140.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0342.8645.64-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0315.7921.13-0.04-0.02
ArizonaP120.060.0390.9188.590.050.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0331.8237.46-0.02-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.060.0333.3333.68-0.02-0.01
BryantNEC0.060.0350.0050.410.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0375.0072.090.030.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0358.8258.130.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0361.5465.360.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0338.8936.88-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0343.7551.40-0.010.00
PrincetonIvy0.060.0344.4443.51-0.01-0.00
SamfordSC0.060.0339.1337.63-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0328.5731.94-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0321.0537.92-0.03-0.01
TempleAmer0.060.0368.1865.090.020.01
UCLAP120.000.0359.0957.470.000.00
UMBCAE0.060.0314.2917.14-0.04-0.02
WashingtonP120.060.0370.0062.930.020.01
XavierBE0.060.0363.6464.030.020.01
BucknellPat0.060.0350.0050.450.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0322.7325.26-0.03-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0357.8959.320.010.01
DukeACC0.060.0385.7184.620.040.02
DuquesneA100.060.0331.5828.68-0.02-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0352.3845.640.00-0.00
FordhamA100.060.0323.5324.33-0.03-0.01
IllinoisB100.060.0363.6460.730.020.01
IowaB100.000.0361.9062.540.000.01
LafayettePat0.060.0360.0061.330.010.01
MichiganB100.060.0360.0052.430.010.00
Michigan St.B100.060.0366.6764.960.020.01
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0354.5555.020.010.00
NebraskaB100.000.0357.1448.260.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0347.6242.03-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0386.9682.950.000.02
VMISC0.060.0330.0034.92-0.02-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.060.0345.4539.76-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.060.0376.1975.610.030.01