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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Marshall

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:112.0
Current RPI:112
Expected SOS:123
Current SOS:123
Current Record:19-15
Expected Record:19-15
Current Conf Record:13-9
Expected Conf Record:13-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-4
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:137
Expected OOC SOS:91



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-15112.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Marshall.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12North Carolina Central (199.0)MEACH81-69W100%0.0
11-16Morehead St. (200.0)OVCH85-77W100%0.0
11-19Western Carolina (271.0)SCH98-63W100%0.0
11-21Jackson St. (323.0)SWACH71-61W100%0.0
11-25Ohio St. (90.0)B10A111-70L0%0.0
11-30Ohio (117.0)MACH98-88W100%0.0
12-3Eastern Kentucky (247.0)OVCA89-80L0%0.0
12-6Chattanooga (139.0)SCA96-85L0%0.0
12-10Toledo (155.0)MACH111-105W100%0.0
12-17Akron (58.0)MACA99-88L0%0.0
12-22Cincinnati (12.0)AmerA93-91L0%0.0
12-28Pittsburgh (74.0)ACCA112-106L0%0.0
12-31FIU (338.0)CUSAA70-94W100%0.0
1-2Florida Atlantic (281.0)CUSAA72-89W100%0.0
1-5Old Dominion (138.0)CUSAH90-86W100%0.0
1-7Charlotte (240.0)CUSAH110-93W100%0.0
1-12Middle Tennessee (34.0)CUSAA69-57L0%0.0
1-14UAB (201.0)CUSAA94-78L0%0.0
1-21Western Kentucky (226.0)CUSAH94-80W100%0.0
1-26UTSA (264.0)CUSAH92-71W100%0.0
1-28UTEP (222.0)CUSAH68-91L0%0.0
2-2Southern Miss (331.0)CUSAA91-76L0%0.0
2-4Louisiana Tech (116.0)CUSAA94-90L0%0.0
2-11Western Kentucky (226.0)CUSAA79-84W100%0.0
2-16UAB (201.0)CUSAH74-59W100%0.0
2-18Middle Tennessee (34.0)CUSAH86-97L0%0.0
2-23Old Dominion (138.0)CUSAA86-65L0%0.0
2-25Charlotte (240.0)CUSAA89-93W100%0.0
3-2Rice (167.0)CUSAH88-89L0%0.0
3-4North Texas (339.0)CUSAH106-104W100%0.0
3-8Florida Atlantic (281.0)CUSAN89-74W100%0.0
3-9Old Dominion (138.0)CUSAN63-64W100%0.0
3-10Louisiana Tech (116.0)CUSAN77-93W100%0.0
3-11Middle Tennessee (34.0)CUSAN83-72L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Marshall's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Marshall's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Marshall.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MarshallCUSA26.3426.3457.2557.253.823.82
Middle TennesseeCUSA5.145.1486.6786.673.773.77
Old DominionCUSA5.025.0264.2964.291.431.43
Western KentuckyCUSA3.733.7350.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA3.713.7150.0050.000.000.00
CharlotteCUSA3.633.6344.4444.44-0.40-0.40
Florida AtlanticCUSA3.633.6330.7730.77-1.39-1.39
Louisiana TechCUSA3.593.5968.9768.971.361.36
RiceCUSA2.272.2763.3363.330.600.60
UTSACUSA2.262.2640.0040.00-0.45-0.45
UTEPCUSA2.242.2443.3343.33-0.30-0.30
North TexasCUSA2.192.1922.2222.22-1.22-1.22
FIUCUSA2.192.1917.8617.86-1.41-1.41
Southern MissCUSA2.172.1721.4321.43-1.24-1.24
ToledoMAC1.681.6851.6151.610.050.05
OhioMAC1.611.6165.5265.520.500.50
Ohio St.B101.601.6051.6151.610.050.05
Western CarolinaSC1.591.5924.1424.14-0.82-0.82
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.571.5732.1432.14-0.56-0.56
Jackson St.SWAC1.571.5742.8642.86-0.22-0.22
Morehead St.OVC1.541.5444.4444.44-0.17-0.17
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.541.5475.8675.860.800.80
AkronMAC1.541.5475.0075.000.770.77
PittsburghACC1.521.5246.8846.88-0.10-0.10
ChattanoogaSC1.521.5257.1457.140.220.22
CincinnatiAmer1.471.4784.8584.851.021.02
BelmontOVC0.220.2277.7877.780.120.12
Kent St.MAC0.190.1961.7661.760.040.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.180.1841.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.170.1753.5753.570.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.170.1737.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.160.1648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.150.1563.3363.330.040.04
James MadisonCAA0.150.1528.1228.12-0.06-0.06
Murray St.OVC0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.140.1423.3323.33-0.08-0.08
LouisvilleACC0.140.1475.0075.000.070.07
Ball St.MAC0.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
BuffaloMAC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
VCUA100.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
Tennessee TechOVC0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.130.1376.6776.670.070.07
WoffordSC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.126.906.90-0.11-0.11
MercerSC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
SamfordSC0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
LSUSEC0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
HowardMEAC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
MarylandB100.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
Northern IllinoisMAC0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
EvansvilleMVC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.120.1284.3884.380.080.08
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.1017.8617.86-0.07-0.07
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
VMISC0.100.1014.2914.29-0.07-0.07
Miami FLACC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Texas TechB120.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.100.1032.1432.14-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1067.6567.650.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.093.333.33-0.09-0.09
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
NebraskaB100.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0955.8855.880.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.090.0987.5087.500.070.07
VirginiaACC0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.090.0988.2488.240.070.07
HawaiiBW0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
ElonCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Oregon St.P120.070.0712.9012.90-0.06-0.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
RutgersB100.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
RichmondA100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
St. John'sBE0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
MissouriSEC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
DetroitHorz0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
TulaneAmer0.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
Penn St.B100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
TulsaAmer0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
DavidsonA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.030.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.040.0434.4834.48-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
HoustonAmer0.040.0467.7467.740.020.02
TempleAmer0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
UCFAmer0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
BaylorB120.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
StetsonASun0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0219.2319.23-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0229.4129.41-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0232.0032.00-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
Green BayHorz0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
IllinoisB100.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
IndianaB100.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
IowaB100.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
MichiganB100.020.0268.5768.570.010.01
NavyPat0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
CreightonBE0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
DukeACC0.020.0277.1477.140.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0296.9796.970.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
YaleIvy0.020.0260.7160.710.000.00
AlbanyAE0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
BrownIvy0.020.0239.2939.29-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Iowa St.B120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
XavierBE0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01