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Through games of Feb 7, 2016.


Marshall

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:127.9
Current RPI:141
Expected SOS:98
Current SOS:116
Current Record:12-12
Expected Record:16-15
Current Conf Record:8-3
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-2
Current OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:182
Expected OOC SOS:9



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1281.21.04%
18-1394.27.26%
17-14109.021.00%
16-15125.431.96%
15-16141.925.90%
14-17157.510.92%
13-18170.41.74%
12-19183.60.17%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Marshall.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-19Tennessee (119.1)SECA84-74L0%0.0
11-24Morehead St. (162.3)OVCA85-61L0%0.0
11-27James Madison (82.6)CAAH75-89L0%0.0
12-1Ohio (108.9)MACA85-70L0%0.0
12-4Akron (35.0)MACH65-75L0%0.0
12-6James Madison (82.6)CAAA107-84L0%0.0
12-9Eastern Illinois (255.4)OVCH82-76W100%0.0
12-12Eastern Kentucky (197.1)OVCH96-72W100%0.0
12-14North Carolina Central (322.0)MEACH92-73W100%0.0
12-17West Virginia (8.7)B12N68-86L0%0.0
12-21Wyoming (179.4)MWCN82-90W100%0.0
12-22Grand Canyon (101.1)WACN81-85L0%0.0
12-27Maryland (5.9)B10A87-67L0%0.0
1-3Western Kentucky (173.5)CUSAH94-76W100%0.0
1-7Florida Atlantic (280.4)CUSAH90-67W100%0.0
1-9FIU (232.8)CUSAH99-81W100%0.0
1-14North Texas (300.7)CUSAA78-97W100%0.0
1-16Rice (292.4)CUSAA90-94W100%0.0
1-21Charlotte (237.2)CUSAA103-95L0%0.0
1-23Old Dominion (140.1)CUSAA75-78W100%0.0
1-28Middle Tennessee (78.9)CUSAH82-66W100%0.0
1-30UAB (87.4)CUSAH78-81L0%0.0
2-4UTEP (237.0)CUSAA112-108L0%0.0
2-6UTSA (341.8)CUSAA91-109W100%0.0
2-13Western Kentucky (173.5)CUSAA0-048%-0.6
2-18Charlotte (237.2)CUSAH0-077%8.2
2-20Old Dominion (140.1)CUSAH0-049%-0.3
2-25UAB (87.4)CUSAA0-026%-6.9
2-27Middle Tennessee (78.9)CUSAA0-034%-4.4
3-3Louisiana Tech (129.9)CUSAH0-062%3.5
3-5Southern Miss (298.0)CUSAH0-090%13.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Marshall's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Marshall's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Marshall.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MarshallCUSA26.2026.1850.9451.340.490.70
Western KentuckyCUSA2.603.9147.6247.79-0.12-0.17
UABCUSA2.563.8481.8278.891.632.22
CharlotteCUSA2.413.8331.8239.52-0.88-0.80
Old DominionCUSA2.413.8359.0965.340.441.18
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.553.8375.0072.231.281.70
James MadisonCAA4.263.2868.1867.321.551.14
FIUCUSA2.542.3342.8646.91-0.36-0.14
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.542.3323.8128.16-1.33-1.02
North TexasCUSA2.422.2735.0034.17-0.73-0.72
RiceCUSA2.422.2730.0030.78-0.97-0.87
Louisiana TechCUSA0.432.2571.4369.830.180.89
Southern MissCUSA0.422.2531.5832.81-0.16-0.77
UTEPCUSA2.472.2250.0050.280.000.01
UTSACUSA2.462.2214.2914.11-1.76-1.59
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.321.8154.1751.980.190.07
Morehead St.OVC2.171.7347.6250.52-0.100.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.221.7042.8645.21-0.32-0.16
West VirginiaB122.211.6981.8278.871.410.98
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.131.6726.3234.54-1.01-0.52
AkronMAC2.131.6780.9579.341.320.98
OhioMAC2.131.6760.0057.980.430.27
TennesseeSEC2.131.6445.4545.10-0.19-0.16
Grand CanyonWAC2.081.6181.8280.441.330.98
MarylandB102.081.6186.9683.131.541.07
WyomingMWC2.081.6145.4544.02-0.19-0.19
BelmontOVC0.230.2666.6766.540.080.08
Tennessee St.OVC0.280.2566.6762.620.090.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.320.2347.8350.15-0.010.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.180.2025.0024.36-0.09-0.10
Georgia St.SB0.140.1957.8956.100.020.02
ElonCAA0.270.1952.1750.420.010.00
Murray St.OVC0.190.1745.4549.70-0.02-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.240.1750.0051.170.000.00
AuburnSEC0.140.1640.9136.61-0.03-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.090.1659.0958.880.020.03
William & MaryCAA0.130.1671.4369.840.060.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.180.1517.3920.66-0.12-0.09
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.140.1431.8236.14-0.05-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.1468.1866.670.050.05
Ball St.MAC0.190.1463.6459.240.050.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.230.1465.2268.610.070.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.190.1440.9149.27-0.03-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.090.1431.8230.48-0.03-0.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.190.1463.1658.790.050.02
HofstraCAA0.220.1465.2264.220.070.04
NortheasternCAA0.130.1445.8346.66-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.130.1376.1973.400.070.06
East CarolinaAmer0.180.1343.4842.01-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.180.1354.5554.490.020.01
HoustonAmer0.190.1269.5766.510.070.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.140.1221.0523.58-0.08-0.06
Austin PeayOVC0.140.1237.5040.52-0.03-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.140.1213.6415.80-0.10-0.08
SouthernSWAC0.140.1265.0066.790.040.04
South AlabamaSB0.100.1233.3334.19-0.03-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.1129.1733.15-0.04-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.190.1159.0959.440.030.02
Indiana St.MVC0.140.1152.1751.960.010.00
ToledoMAC0.150.1159.0960.070.030.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.140.119.5213.52-0.12-0.08
TroySB0.090.1123.8126.67-0.05-0.05
SeattleWAC0.090.1147.6244.99-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.140.1154.1750.930.010.00
San Diego St.MWC0.140.1172.7372.030.060.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.140.1166.6770.540.050.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.140.1130.4335.11-0.06-0.03
VCUA100.090.1173.9173.900.050.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.1152.3847.040.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.100.1163.6459.440.030.02
Western MichiganMAC0.180.1133.3335.48-0.06-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.1163.6460.940.020.02
DelawareCAA0.090.1121.7423.32-0.05-0.06
DrexelCAA0.170.1113.6418.14-0.13-0.07
TowsonCAA0.090.1165.2259.750.030.02
MichiganB100.090.1169.5766.220.030.03
PurdueB100.090.1179.1776.550.050.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0935.0035.98-0.03-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.150.0916.6720.13-0.10-0.05
Green BayHorz0.140.0954.5556.000.010.01
IndianaB100.090.0979.1774.020.060.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.140.0956.5256.310.020.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.140.0933.3335.09-0.05-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0947.6252.67-0.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0966.6767.690.030.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.090.0933.3334.94-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.140.0850.0053.300.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.140.0814.2915.46-0.10-0.06
LouisvilleACC0.090.0882.6177.740.060.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0865.2266.160.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.0847.6252.07-0.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0861.9059.660.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0820.0026.74-0.03-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0852.3850.410.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.140.0872.0070.510.060.03
DavidsonA100.090.0860.0057.960.020.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.140.0821.7422.74-0.08-0.04
Ohio St.B100.090.0858.3354.160.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.130.0839.1341.12-0.03-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0845.8344.11-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.130.0840.0045.51-0.03-0.01
TexasB120.090.0869.5762.630.040.02
Virginia TechACC0.090.0854.1749.270.01-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.090.0852.1755.930.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.090.0854.1752.340.010.00
KentuckySEC0.090.0873.9171.550.040.03
Rhode IslandA100.090.0856.5256.610.010.01
TCUB120.090.0843.4837.22-0.01-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.100.0657.1459.470.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0627.7829.14-0.04-0.02
ClemsonACC0.100.0660.8760.240.020.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.0647.8348.91-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0660.8760.770.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.064.357.73-0.04-0.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0677.2776.860.030.03
UMKCWAC0.050.0628.5732.71-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.0640.9140.65-0.02-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0659.0953.030.010.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0636.8438.39-0.02-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.090.0645.4538.47-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0638.8945.66-0.01-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.050.0663.6462.530.010.01
CaliforniaP120.090.0665.2262.880.030.01
CreightonBE0.100.0662.5059.780.020.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0647.6245.85-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0621.7423.66-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.050.0663.6456.430.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.100.0669.5764.890.040.02
Montana St.BSky0.090.0640.9143.71-0.02-0.01
NevadaMWC0.090.0655.0054.530.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.090.0660.8763.000.020.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0625.0022.76-0.02-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.050.0680.9582.700.030.04
UC RiversideBW0.100.0645.8341.65-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0650.0055.200.000.01
XavierBE0.050.0691.3084.380.040.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0536.8441.44-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.090.0525.0029.27-0.05-0.02
Michigan St.B100.090.0583.3383.020.060.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0545.0049.39-0.01-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.090.0515.0015.35-0.06-0.04
Texas St.SB0.090.0538.8938.51-0.02-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0565.2259.020.000.01
StetsonASun0.090.0523.8127.69-0.05-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0530.0035.77-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0515.0022.36-0.06-0.03
George MasonA100.090.0534.7834.15-0.03-0.02
NorthwesternB100.090.0566.6763.420.030.01
RadfordBSth0.090.0550.0051.270.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.050.0520.0019.66-0.03-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0570.5975.550.020.03
USC UpstateASun0.050.0522.7323.25-0.02-0.03
WisconsinB100.040.0560.8755.840.010.01
NebraskaB100.090.0554.1751.810.010.00
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0526.0929.20-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.050.0572.7366.500.020.02
CampbellBSth0.050.0528.5729.65-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.090.0565.2266.090.030.02
FurmanSC0.050.0552.1753.310.000.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0573.9170.060.020.02
KansasB120.050.0581.8277.570.030.03
Kansas St.B120.090.0560.8758.470.020.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0581.8276.740.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0524.0024.57-0.02-0.03
OklahomaB120.050.0586.3682.100.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0547.8344.37-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0582.6178.890.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0586.3679.150.030.03
SyracuseACC0.050.0566.6762.560.020.01
Texas TechB120.050.0559.0953.120.010.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0533.3331.31-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0556.5260.000.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0565.2261.070.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0338.1040.73-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0338.1037.44-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0363.6462.140.000.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0376.1968.220.020.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0336.3633.47-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0333.3332.34-0.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0328.5731.36-0.02-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.050.0331.5837.72-0.02-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0320.8323.63-0.03-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0321.7424.67-0.03-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0330.0034.56-0.02-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0321.0527.82-0.03-0.01
DenverSum0.050.0354.1751.800.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0315.7920.03-0.00-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0352.6350.220.000.00
IdahoBSky0.050.0354.5554.930.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0356.2556.100.010.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0331.5831.96-0.02-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0357.8961.750.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0343.4842.62-0.01-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0314.2917.92-0.04-0.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0365.2267.140.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0354.1755.080.000.00
Oregon St.P120.050.0361.9056.420.010.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.039.0917.09-0.00-0.02
SamfordSC0.050.0339.1341.32-0.01-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0354.5550.110.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0371.4368.970.020.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0375.0071.500.020.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0345.4554.11-0.000.00
TulsaAmer0.050.0365.2261.450.020.01
UCFAmer0.050.0352.3845.700.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.050.0345.0046.77-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0323.8126.56-0.02-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.040.0373.9172.480.020.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0360.8760.730.010.01
IowaB100.040.0382.6180.580.030.02
LongwoodBSth0.040.0322.7324.97-0.02-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.040.0342.8641.97-0.01-0.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0326.0927.82-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.040.0382.6178.690.030.02
Penn St.B100.040.0350.0046.740.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.040.0372.2274.710.020.01
RiderMAAC0.040.0340.0042.11-0.01-0.00
RutgersB100.040.0321.7420.35-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.040.0350.0049.440.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0342.8650.41-0.010.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0386.9686.370.030.02
Washington St.P120.050.0336.3632.00-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.050.0352.1753.380.000.00
ButlerBE0.050.0369.5767.230.020.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0345.4547.57-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0378.2674.420.030.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0361.9056.690.010.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0352.1751.590.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0378.2676.810.030.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0321.7423.40-0.03-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0342.8646.34-0.01-0.00
LSUSEC0.000.0365.2260.270.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0334.7830.36-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0378.2678.050.030.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0382.6178.050.030.01