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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Marshall

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:112.7
Current RPI:78
Expected SOS:104
Current SOS:126
Current Record:5-2
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-2
Current OOC Record:5-2
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:80
Expected OOC SOS:33



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-620.70.03%
23-731.20.17%
22-838.30.50%
21-948.01.89%
20-1057.54.83%
19-1170.39.04%
18-1284.814.29%
17-13100.318.83%
16-14118.218.33%
15-15136.014.45%
14-16155.69.56%
13-17176.34.95%
12-18199.02.21%
11-19219.70.67%
10-20239.70.22%
9-21259.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Marshall.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12North Carolina Central (173.0)MEACH81-69W100%0.0
11-16Morehead St. (225.6)OVCH85-77W100%0.0
11-19Western Carolina (271.1)SCH98-63W100%0.0
11-21Jackson St. (301.7)SWACH71-61W100%0.0
11-25Ohio St. (39.3)B10A111-70L0%0.0
11-30Ohio (87.4)MACH98-88W100%0.0
12-3Eastern Kentucky (157.0)OVCA89-80L0%0.0
12-6Chattanooga (86.7)SCA0-025%-8.2
12-10Toledo (170.4)MACH0-064%4.3
12-17Akron (81.5)MACA0-024%-8.4
12-22Cincinnati (18.5)AmerA0-05%-19.3
12-28Pittsburgh (69.2)ACCA0-020%-10.2
12-31FIU (262.2)CUSAA0-058%2.5
1-2Florida Atlantic (280.5)CUSAA0-063%3.9
1-5Old Dominion (95.5)CUSAH0-048%-0.6
1-7Charlotte (177.6)CUSAH0-068%5.8
1-12Middle Tennessee (51.2)CUSAA0-022%-9.2
1-14UAB (139.7)CUSAA0-032%-5.7
1-21Western Kentucky (249.3)CUSAH0-079%9.8
1-26UTSA (307.7)CUSAH0-085%12.5
1-28UTEP (290.1)CUSAH0-082%10.8
2-2Southern Miss (326.2)CUSAA0-081%10.7
2-4Louisiana Tech (102.7)CUSAA0-025%-8.2
2-11Western Kentucky (249.3)CUSAA0-061%3.5
2-16UAB (139.7)CUSAH0-052%0.6
2-18Middle Tennessee (51.2)CUSAH0-040%-3.0
2-23Old Dominion (95.5)CUSAA0-028%-6.9
2-25Charlotte (177.6)CUSAA0-048%-0.5
3-2Rice (88.9)CUSAH0-047%-1.0
3-4North Texas (299.2)CUSAH0-087%13.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Marshall's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Marshall's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Marshall.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MarshallCUSA28.6126.1471.4355.8912.263.08
Western KentuckyCUSA0.454.0837.5035.46-0.11-1.19
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.004.0287.5076.760.002.15
Old DominionCUSA0.003.9771.4368.500.001.47
UABCUSA0.003.9650.0060.040.000.80
CharlotteCUSA0.003.9671.4352.220.000.18
RiceCUSA0.002.3975.0072.110.001.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.002.3816.6730.07-0.00-0.95
North TexasCUSA0.002.3633.3331.10-0.00-0.89
FIUCUSA0.002.3614.2935.81-0.00-0.67
Southern MissCUSA0.512.3325.0020.87-0.26-1.36
UTSACUSA0.002.3125.0030.06-0.00-0.92
Louisiana TechCUSA0.002.3050.0070.860.000.96
UTEPCUSA0.002.3020.0036.11-0.00-0.64
ToledoMAC0.001.8437.5048.33-0.00-0.06
Western CarolinaSC8.611.8133.3323.94-2.87-0.95
OhioMAC7.141.81100.0074.137.140.87
Ohio St.B108.671.7985.7167.576.200.63
Jackson St.SWAC8.611.7916.6745.20-5.74-0.17
Eastern KentuckyOVC7.141.7842.8649.09-1.02-0.03
AkronMAC0.001.7571.4368.730.000.66
North Carolina CentralMEAC8.611.7566.6774.272.870.85
Morehead St.OVC7.141.7520.0040.06-4.29-0.35
PittsburghACC0.601.7375.0048.140.30-0.06
ChattanoogaSC0.001.7271.4372.950.000.79
CincinnatiAmer0.001.6787.5081.950.001.07
BelmontOVC0.000.2350.0064.350.000.07
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.2050.0046.410.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.2016.6736.03-0.00-0.06
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.2028.5741.52-0.00-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.2050.0056.740.000.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.1785.7170.060.000.07
FurmanSC0.000.1733.3356.24-0.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.1757.1454.360.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.1733.3352.21-0.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.600.1525.0027.53-0.30-0.07
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1583.3379.850.000.09
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.150.0013.46-0.00-0.11
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.510.1542.8650.12-0.070.00
MercerSC0.000.1542.8647.76-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.600.1440.0058.82-0.120.03
Miami OHMAC0.000.1442.8630.92-0.00-0.06
SamfordSC0.000.1462.5056.520.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.1412.5030.68-0.00-0.06
Ball St.MAC0.000.1442.8647.11-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1442.8645.56-0.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1412.5033.65-0.00-0.05
MarylandB100.000.1487.5059.330.000.03
Georgia St.SB0.450.1450.0060.620.000.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.1487.5075.590.000.07
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1212.5037.99-0.00-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.120.0034.47-0.00-0.04
LSUSEC0.000.1271.4349.170.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.1216.6744.34-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.510.1277.7849.900.28-0.00
The CitadelSC0.000.1250.0030.350.00-0.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.1271.4356.260.000.01
VMISC0.000.120.0016.78-0.00-0.08
WoffordSC0.000.120.0034.81-0.00-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.1214.2931.28-0.00-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.000.1271.4357.970.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.1275.0054.490.000.01
Texas TechB120.450.1287.5062.040.330.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.120.0020.75-0.00-0.07
Murray St.OVC0.000.1250.0061.240.000.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1250.0066.300.000.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.120.0023.69-0.00-0.06
EvansvilleMVC0.600.1142.8644.71-0.09-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.1171.4356.250.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.1133.3336.74-0.00-0.03
MemphisAmer0.510.1175.0055.500.260.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1142.8638.17-0.00-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.450.1183.3377.100.300.06
VCUA100.000.1175.0073.060.000.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.11100.0089.330.000.09
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0975.0048.030.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0950.0041.990.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0975.0054.670.000.01
LipscombASun0.600.0912.5033.04-0.45-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0957.1471.940.000.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.090.0034.27-0.00-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.510.0916.6729.80-0.34-0.04
ElonCAA0.000.0971.4359.470.000.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0925.0031.41-0.00-0.03
Oregon St.P120.000.0925.0022.93-0.00-0.05
Miami FLACC0.510.0975.0066.100.260.03
TulaneAmer0.000.0912.5023.93-0.00-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0950.0046.240.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.510.0857.1442.530.07-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0857.1433.230.00-0.03
AuburnSEC0.450.0885.7157.450.320.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0825.0055.33-0.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0887.5081.960.000.05
NebraskaB100.000.0857.1444.890.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0862.5069.130.000.03
DetroitHorz0.000.080.0021.22-0.00-0.05
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0833.3339.61-0.00-0.02
Penn St.B100.000.0866.6746.420.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0866.6766.860.000.03
VirginiaACC0.450.0887.5078.510.330.05
Northern KentuckyHorz1.110.0657.1453.990.160.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0612.5030.39-0.00-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0625.0038.83-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0017.13-0.00-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0657.1450.080.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0035.95-0.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0642.8638.63-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0043.390.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0671.4363.170.000.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0687.5075.240.000.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0025.23-0.00-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0675.0070.180.000.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.600.0650.0058.040.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0644.4441.30-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0687.5065.250.000.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0620.0041.92-0.00-0.01
PurdueB100.600.0675.0075.340.300.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0642.8643.60-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0657.1459.280.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.06100.0078.850.000.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0666.6757.300.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.0644.4442.03-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.600.0657.1436.010.09-0.02
RutgersB100.000.0685.7145.370.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.510.0675.0066.410.260.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0642.8655.09-0.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0657.1467.260.000.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0020.55-0.00-0.03
George WashingtonA100.000.0655.5641.690.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0687.5075.860.000.03
MississippiSEC0.000.0675.0048.500.00-0.00
RichmondA100.000.0650.0048.210.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0637.5037.03-0.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.0657.1438.680.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0642.8653.19-0.000.00
TroySB0.000.0642.8636.19-0.00-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0633.3346.01-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.450.0516.6739.78-0.30-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0585.7178.280.000.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0542.8650.11-0.000.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0555.5658.610.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0587.5068.020.000.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0571.4366.700.000.02
TempleAmer0.000.0575.0064.920.000.02
UCFAmer0.000.0585.7176.240.000.03
UNLVMWC0.000.0562.5043.800.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.0557.1452.370.000.00
WisconsinB100.000.0577.7876.040.000.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0550.0038.050.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0360.0069.120.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0314.2932.19-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0371.4355.160.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0022.58-0.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0314.2942.67-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0350.0050.450.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0362.5043.220.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0371.4355.820.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0017.61-0.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0314.2938.26-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0018.64-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.12-0.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0375.0066.370.000.01
BaylorB120.000.03100.0076.590.000.02
BryantNEC0.600.0325.0047.82-0.30-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0328.5731.44-0.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.030.0019.67-0.00-0.02
DrexelCAA0.000.0350.0040.600.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0322.2226.33-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0357.1464.030.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0325.0030.23-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0316.6729.81-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0328.5732.62-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0362.5058.450.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0325.0035.09-0.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0312.5023.75-0.00-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0337.5031.23-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0340.0041.12-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0362.5067.390.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0357.1448.500.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.000.0314.2931.35-0.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.0350.0043.560.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0342.8641.51-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0385.7162.220.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0366.6761.550.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0076.630.000.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0366.6740.030.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0091.920.000.02
High PointBSth0.000.0342.8646.48-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0039.53-0.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.450.0312.5029.15-0.33-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0342.8645.44-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0325.0043.41-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.450.0337.5051.64-0.110.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0350.0041.540.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0371.4363.930.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0325.0034.40-0.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0350.0062.380.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0312.5034.79-0.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0328.5734.28-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0328.5728.24-0.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0375.0061.490.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0350.0054.070.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0385.7183.660.000.02
Green BayHorz0.000.0342.8651.95-0.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0371.4358.920.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0342.8645.30-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0362.5051.790.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0342.8661.11-0.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0357.1429.790.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0355.5646.970.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0074.440.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0371.4354.860.000.00
DukeACC0.000.0388.8978.400.000.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0333.3352.11-0.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.0362.5050.710.000.00
IndianaB100.000.0387.5074.490.000.01
IowaB100.000.0337.5037.74-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0371.4368.070.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0375.0066.460.000.01
NavyPat0.450.0325.0037.38-0.22-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0375.0051.040.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0375.0066.170.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0077.380.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.450.0375.0056.590.220.00
UCLAP120.000.03100.0086.690.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.990.000.01
XavierBE0.000.0387.5070.890.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.0342.8663.41-0.000.01