Marshall

Conference:	CUSA
Expected RPI:	43.0
Current RPI:	43
Expected SOS:	23
Current SOS:	23
Current Record:	20-13
Expected Record:	20-13
Current Conf Record:	12-8
Expected Conf Record:	12-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-0
Current OOC Record:	8-5
Expected OOC Record:	8-5
Expected OOC RPI:	52
Expected OOC SOS:	9

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
20-13	43.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Marshall.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Alabama St. (308.0)	SWAC	H	67-49	W	100%
11-13	Jacksonville St. (216.0)	OVC	H	58-44	W	100%
11-19	Northwestern St. (217.0)	Slnd	H	83-61	W	100%
11-22	NC Wilmington (214.0)	CAA	A	64-69	W	100%
11-25	Cincinnati (44.0)	BE	A	69-73	W	100%
11-30	Ohio (47.0)	MAC	H	68-70	L	0%
12-6	Syracuse (1.0)	BE	A	62-56	L	0%
12-11	Iona (40.0)	MAAC	H	82-63	W	100%
12-17	High Point (268.0)	BSth	H	79-59	W	100%
12-19	Belmont (58.0)	ASun	H	87-86	W	100%
12-29	Belmont (58.0)	ASun	A	79-74	L	0%
1-1	Akron (55.0)	MAC	H	51-67	L	0%
1-4	Texas El Paso (147.0)	CUSA	H	76-60	W	100%
1-7	Rice (171.0)	CUSA	A	61-63	W	100%
1-11	UAB (112.0)	CUSA	A	59-61	W	100%
1-14	Central Florida (54.0)	CUSA	H	65-64	W	100%
1-18	West Virginia (57.0)	BE	N	62-78	L	0%
1-21	Southern Mississippi (20.0)	CUSA	A	67-63	L	0%
1-25	UAB (112.0)	CUSA	H	49-56	L	0%
1-28	Memphis (16.0)	CUSA	A	83-76	L	0%
2-1	Tulane (250.0)	CUSA	H	63-44	W	100%
2-4	Tulsa (120.0)	CUSA	A	79-70	L	0%
2-8	Central Florida (54.0)	CUSA	A	67-60	L	0%
2-11	East Carolina (164.0)	CUSA	H	78-68	W	100%
2-18	Southern Methodist (212.0)	CUSA	A	68-73	W	100%
2-22	Houston (221.0)	CUSA	H	66-58	W	100%
2-25	Memphis (16.0)	CUSA	H	67-87	L	0%
2-29	East Carolina (164.0)	CUSA	A	69-68	L	0%
3-3	Southern Mississippi (20.0)	CUSA	H	79-75	W	100%
3-7	Southern Methodist (212.0)	CUSA	N	74-56	W	100%
3-8	Tulsa (120.0)	CUSA	N	100-105	W	100%
3-9	Southern Mississippi (20.0)	CUSA	N	62-73	W	100%
3-10	Memphis (16.0)	CUSA	A	83-57	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Marshall's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Marshall's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Marshall.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Marshall	CUSA	26.39	26.39	60.14	60.14	5.35	5.35
Memphis	CUSA	5.32	5.32	74.19	74.19	2.58	2.58
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	5.25	5.25	78.57	78.57	3.00	3.00
Central Florida	CUSA	3.86	3.86	67.86	67.86	1.38	1.38
East Carolina	CUSA	3.81	3.81	40.00	40.00	-0.76	-0.76
UAB	CUSA	3.80	3.80	48.28	48.28	-0.13	-0.13
Tulsa	CUSA	3.63	3.63	55.17	55.17	0.38	0.38
Southern Methodist	CUSA	3.63	3.63	39.29	39.29	-0.78	-0.78
Belmont	ASun	3.10	3.10	80.65	80.65	1.90	1.90
Texas El Paso	CUSA	2.26	2.26	48.39	48.39	-0.07	-0.07
Tulane	CUSA	2.26	2.26	46.43	46.43	-0.16	-0.16
Rice	CUSA	2.22	2.22	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Houston	CUSA	2.19	2.19	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	1.66	1.66	72.73	72.73	0.76	0.76
Jacksonville St.	OVC	1.62	1.62	44.83	44.83	-0.17	-0.17
Syracuse	BE	1.61	1.61	93.75	93.75	1.41	1.41
Akron	MAC	1.61	1.61	64.52	64.52	0.47	0.47
Alabama St.	SWAC	1.59	1.59	35.71	35.71	-0.45	-0.45
Northwestern St.	Slnd	1.59	1.59	46.43	46.43	-0.11	-0.11
Ohio	MAC	1.59	1.59	78.12	78.12	0.89	0.89
West Virginia	BE	1.58	1.58	58.06	58.06	0.26	0.26
High Point	BSth	1.57	1.57	39.29	39.29	-0.34	-0.34
Iona	MAAC	1.52	1.52	80.65	80.65	0.93	0.93
NC Wilmington	CAA	1.52	1.52	33.33	33.33	-0.51	-0.51
Georgetown	BE	0.22	0.22	73.33	73.33	0.10	0.10
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.22	0.22	33.33	33.33	-0.07	-0.07
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.22	0.22	20.00	20.00	-0.13	-0.13
Murray St.	OVC	0.21	0.21	96.43	96.43	0.20	0.20
Austin Peay	OVC	0.21	0.21	35.48	35.48	-0.06	-0.06
Louisville	BE	0.20	0.20	74.29	74.29	0.10	0.10
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.19	0.19	72.73	72.73	0.09	0.09
Kent St.	MAC	0.19	0.19	64.52	64.52	0.06	0.06
Connecticut	BE	0.19	0.19	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.19	0.19	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.19	0.19	26.67	26.67	-0.09	-0.09
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.18	0.18	25.00	25.00	-0.09	-0.09
Colorado St.	MWC	0.17	0.17	63.33	63.33	0.05	0.05
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.16	0.16	80.00	80.00	0.10	0.10
Miami OH	MAC	0.16	0.16	27.59	27.59	-0.07	-0.07
Campbell	BSth	0.16	0.16	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.16	0.16	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Old Dominion	CAA	0.16	0.16	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Southern	SWAC	0.15	0.15	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.15	0.15	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.15	0.15	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.15	0.15	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.15	0.15	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.14	0.14	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Stetson	ASun	0.14	0.14	28.57	28.57	-0.06	-0.06
South Florida	BE	0.14	0.14	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Mercer	ASun	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.14	0.14	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.13	0.13	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Tennessee	SEC	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.13	0.13	19.23	19.23	-0.08	-0.08
Mississippi	SEC	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.12	0.12	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
Charlotte	A10	0.12	0.12	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.12	0.12	6.90	6.90	-0.11	-0.11
Arizona St.	P12	0.12	0.12	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
South Alabama	SB	0.12	0.12	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.12	0.12	82.35	82.35	0.08	0.08
Buffalo	MAC	0.12	0.12	64.29	64.29	0.03	0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.11	0.11	6.67	6.67	-0.10	-0.10
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.11	0.11	57.69	57.69	0.02	0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.10	0.10	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.10	0.10	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
NC Asheville	BSth	0.10	0.10	70.00	70.00	0.04	0.04
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.10	0.10	34.62	34.62	-0.03	-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.10	0.10	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.10	0.10	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
Creighton	MVC	0.10	0.10	84.85	84.85	0.07	0.07
Wichita St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	83.87	83.87	0.07	0.07
Denver	SB	0.10	0.10	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Troy	SB	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Manhattan	MAAC	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.09	0.09	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.09	0.09	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.09	0.09	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.09	0.09	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
St. John's	BE	0.09	0.09	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Villanova	BE	0.09	0.09	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.09	0.09	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Xavier	A10	0.09	0.09	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.08	0.08	14.29	14.29	-0.06	-0.06
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Texas St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	34.62	34.62	-0.02	-0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.07	0.07	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Oklahoma	B12	0.07	0.07	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Radford	BSth	0.07	0.07	13.33	13.33	-0.05	-0.05
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.07	0.07	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.07	0.07	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.07	0.07	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.07	0.07	16.13	16.13	-0.05	-0.05
Florida	SEC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
George Washington	A10	0.07	0.07	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.07	0.07	3.12	3.12	-0.07	-0.07
Western Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Appalachian St.	SC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
NC Greensboro	SC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Fresno St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.05	86.21	86.21	0.04	0.04
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.03	-0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.03	-0.03
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida International	SB	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.93	25.93	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Missouri	B12	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	7.14	7.14	-0.02	-0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	78.57	78.57	0.01	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.02	0.02	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.02	0.02	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Baylor	B12	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Long Island	NEC	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.02	0.02	80.00	80.00	0.01	0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Vermont	AE	0.02	0.02	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Albany	AE	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.02	0.02	39.39	39.39	-0.00	-0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.02	0.02	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00