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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


VMI

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:313.6
Current RPI:289
Expected SOS:239
Current SOS:216
Current Record:4-12
Expected Record:7-20
Current Conf Record:1-6
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-7
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:282
Expected OOC SOS:305



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-16243.80.23%
10-17262.01.11%
9-18278.15.53%
8-19294.815.14%
7-20309.726.95%
6-21322.129.66%
5-22331.517.01%
4-23338.34.36%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for VMI.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10North Carolina St. (96.3)ACCA102-67L0%0.0
11-14Duquesne (213.1)A10A77-61L0%0.0
11-18Presbyterian (324.6)BSthH78-58W100%0.0
11-25American (307.4)PatA69-64L0%0.0
11-28Charleston Southern (313.1)BSthA68-76W100%0.0
12-2Radford (135.1)BSthH50-63L0%0.0
12-5Davidson (82.5)A10A74-51L0%0.0
12-9Longwood (332.4)BSthH81-70W100%0.0
12-22VCU (128.6)A10A75-65L0%0.0
12-30Furman (89.4)SCH57-87L0%0.0
1-4Wofford (119.5)SCA92-53L0%0.0
1-6UNC Greensboro (116.2)SCH61-63L0%0.0
1-13East Tennessee St. (61.7)SCA89-48L0%0.0
1-15Western Carolina (223.5)SCA65-58L0%0.0
1-18Mercer (169.7)SCH56-62L0%0.0
1-20The Citadel (314.8)SCH88-81W100%0.0
1-24Wofford (119.5)SCH0-020%-9.6
1-27Chattanooga (287.0)SCA0-023%-8.3
1-29Samford (261.3)SCA0-019%-9.7
2-1UNC Greensboro (116.2)SCA0-05%-17.9
2-8Western Carolina (223.5)SCH0-049%-0.1
2-10East Tennessee St. (61.7)SCH0-07%-16.1
2-15Mercer (169.7)SCA0-04%-19.1
2-17The Citadel (314.8)SCA0-040%-2.9
2-20Furman (89.4)SCA0-04%-20.0
2-23Samford (261.3)SCH0-038%-3.3
2-25Chattanooga (287.0)SCH0-043%-1.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

VMI's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


VMI's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  VMI.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VMISC26.4326.4623.5323.10-13.99-14.23
UNC GreensboroSC3.854.8466.6765.361.281.49
ChattanoogaSC0.544.7422.2225.74-0.30-2.30
East Tennessee St.SC3.484.7476.4777.891.842.65
FurmanSC3.494.7464.7166.301.031.55
MercerSC3.484.7441.1851.71-0.610.16
SamfordSC0.544.7427.7829.80-0.24-1.92
Western CarolinaSC3.494.7435.2932.39-1.03-1.67
WoffordSC3.414.7466.6761.571.141.10
The CitadelSC3.494.7320.0017.46-2.10-3.08
PresbyterianBSth3.482.1531.2528.77-1.31-0.91
LongwoodBSth3.512.1218.7517.87-2.19-1.36
Charleston SouthernBSth3.482.1121.4329.87-1.99-0.85
RadfordBSth3.412.0658.8259.390.600.39
North Carolina St.ACC3.421.9966.6756.361.140.25
DavidsonA103.231.9556.2560.060.400.39
DuquesneA103.201.9168.4256.711.180.26
VCUA103.201.9157.8958.350.510.32
AmericanPat3.121.8522.2225.57-1.74-0.90
UNC AshevilleBSth0.740.5350.0055.650.000.06
High PointBSth0.480.4740.0047.86-0.10-0.02
LibertyBSth0.560.4052.9457.320.030.06
WinthropBSth0.360.3646.6758.78-0.020.06
CampbellBSth0.390.3443.7545.34-0.05-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.270.2741.1843.41-0.05-0.04
FordhamA100.330.2531.5829.06-0.12-0.10
North CarolinaACC0.280.2280.0075.050.170.11
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1970.0068.220.000.07
TennesseeSEC0.350.1972.2268.920.150.07
ClemsonACC0.250.1984.2173.210.170.09
George WashingtonA100.250.1845.0043.49-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.350.1655.5656.710.040.02
Virginia TechACC0.280.1668.4257.780.100.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.370.1627.7831.67-0.16-0.06
ElonCAA0.270.1652.6351.090.010.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.280.1622.2227.33-0.15-0.07
VirginiaACC0.350.1694.4485.440.310.11
MassachusettsA100.090.1650.0046.780.00-0.01
La SalleA100.240.1640.0042.72-0.05-0.02
RichmondA100.170.1531.5834.35-0.06-0.05
St. BonaventureA100.090.1566.6768.700.030.06
DaytonA100.160.1547.3750.95-0.010.00
Florida St.ACC0.200.1373.6869.610.100.05
CharlotteCUSA0.180.1323.5325.63-0.10-0.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.1310.5316.75-0.07-0.08
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.1316.6724.91-0.06-0.06
MemphisAmer0.090.1365.0058.490.030.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.170.1366.6773.240.060.06
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.1357.8953.190.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.180.1344.4441.15-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.260.1333.3337.22-0.09-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.1283.3381.410.000.08
George MasonA100.170.1245.0041.35-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.170.1247.3746.91-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.180.1025.0028.25-0.09-0.04
Ohio St.B100.180.1080.9576.520.110.05
DelawareCAA0.190.1047.3743.04-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.180.1036.8431.12-0.05-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.100.1052.6343.120.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.180.1031.5835.15-0.06-0.03
AkronMAC0.090.1047.0644.91-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.170.1029.4138.15-0.07-0.02
BucknellPat0.160.0961.9068.010.040.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.160.090.009.15-0.16-0.08
DukeACC0.170.0989.4785.190.130.07
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.090.0010.65-0.08-0.07
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0950.0051.650.000.00
MaristMAAC0.100.0721.0521.99-0.06-0.04
UMBCAE0.100.0758.8258.360.020.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.100.0727.7838.13-0.04-0.02
HarvardIvy0.100.0737.5046.63-0.02-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.100.0761.1151.900.020.00
Texas TechB120.100.0778.9571.810.060.03
St. Francis PANEC0.170.0652.9459.250.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.090.0668.4258.990.030.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0616.6724.290.00-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.0668.4264.200.000.02
ArmyPat0.080.0661.1160.530.020.01
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0650.0053.160.000.00
ButlerBE0.090.0666.6763.070.030.02
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0689.4785.520.070.05
ColgatePat0.080.0650.0051.040.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0666.6765.620.030.02
ColoradoP120.090.0660.0053.730.020.00
DetroitHorz0.090.0621.0525.98-0.05-0.03
DrexelCAA0.090.0630.0030.99-0.03-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0610.0019.62-0.07-0.04
Fort WayneSum0.090.0652.6351.700.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.090.0666.6765.360.030.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0666.6765.530.000.02
Holy CrossPat0.000.0626.3230.430.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0638.8943.43-0.02-0.01
KentuckySEC0.090.0673.6867.950.040.02
LafayettePat0.080.0622.2227.51-0.05-0.03
LehighPat0.080.0638.8944.75-0.02-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0677.7871.650.000.03
Loyola MDPat0.080.0622.2228.67-0.05-0.03
LSUSEC0.000.0661.1153.160.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0668.4263.640.000.02
MinnesotaB100.090.0663.6457.640.020.01
NavyPat0.080.0660.0055.160.020.01
NevadaMWC0.180.0685.7182.070.130.04
NortheasternCAA0.090.0663.1663.180.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0627.7834.50-0.04-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0652.9455.040.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0626.3231.520.00-0.02
TroySB0.090.0635.2942.76-0.03-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0661.1164.130.000.02
UCFAmer0.090.0668.4260.880.030.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0660.0062.030.020.02
ValparaisoMVC0.000.0650.0051.360.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.0661.1156.830.000.01
XavierBE0.090.0685.7180.080.060.04
CornellIvy0.170.0633.3333.36-0.06-0.02
MarquetteBE0.160.0668.4260.530.060.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.160.0615.7920.92-0.11-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.160.0650.0048.740.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.080.0663.1661.050.020.01
PittsburghACC0.080.0640.0030.87-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.160.0657.1460.400.020.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.0431.5832.72-0.04-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.100.0447.3745.87-0.01-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.100.0411.1117.96-0.08-0.02
Arizona St.P120.090.0378.9576.130.050.02
Chicago St.WAC0.090.030.003.12-0.09-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.090.0320.0032.26-0.06-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0370.0071.230.040.01
IllinoisB100.090.0347.3744.27-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0350.0051.480.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0380.0078.860.060.02
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0342.1132.48-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.090.0368.7563.960.030.01
HowardMEAC0.080.0310.5327.31-0.06-0.01
Kansas St.B120.080.0373.6862.720.040.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0342.1144.97-0.01-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0383.3384.230.060.02
UC DavisBW0.090.0358.8262.450.020.01
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0336.8435.55-0.02-0.01
WagnerNEC0.080.0364.7164.540.020.01
West VirginiaB120.080.0384.2178.170.060.02
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0342.8635.25-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.080.0380.0078.980.050.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0368.4255.060.000.00
BryantNEC0.080.039.5217.08-0.07-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0336.8444.12-0.02-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0333.3333.80-0.03-0.01
LamarSlnd0.080.0350.0054.850.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0377.7869.360.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0376.4769.020.000.01
MichiganB100.080.0375.0070.270.040.01
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0347.0652.51-0.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0378.9576.760.050.02
Penn St.B100.080.0361.9055.770.020.00
Seton HallBE0.080.0375.0067.890.040.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0352.6350.250.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0333.3335.19-0.03-0.01
StetsonASun0.080.0333.3336.92-0.03-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0368.4261.270.000.01
TexasB120.080.0363.1657.620.020.00
UMKCWAC0.080.0321.0524.71-0.05-0.02