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Through games of Feb 22, 2017.


VMI

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:320.7
Current RPI:325
Expected SOS:171
Current SOS:164
Current Record:4-21
Expected Record:5-22
Current Conf Record:3-13
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-8
Current OOC Record:1-8
Expected OOC Record:1-8
Expected OOC RPI:327
Expected OOC SOS:191



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
6-21296.63.14%
5-22315.345.73%
4-23327.151.13%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for VMI.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Richmond (100.4)A10A72-69L0%0.0
11-19Virginia Tech (45.3)ACCA88-72L0%0.0
11-22Presbyterian (344.8)BSthA77-67L0%0.0
11-26Campbell (278.0)BSthH53-67L0%0.0
11-30Radford (224.2)BSthA74-67L0%0.0
12-3Gardner Webb (211.6)BSthH68-86L0%0.0
12-10West Virginia (25.2)B12A90-55L0%0.0
12-13Charleston Southern (302.4)BSthH88-83W100%0.0
12-23Dayton (23.6)A10A92-56L0%0.0
12-31East Tennessee St. (63.5)SCA102-75L0%0.0
1-5Mercer (204.6)SCA68-50L0%0.0
1-7The Citadel (317.6)SCA79-74L0%0.0
1-12Western Carolina (261.7)SCH79-78W100%0.0
1-14UNC Greensboro (112.4)SCH82-91L0%0.0
1-19Wofford (194.0)SCA88-70L0%0.0
1-21Furman (99.8)SCA89-72L0%0.0
1-25Chattanooga (96.4)SCA64-80W100%0.0
1-28Samford (159.5)SCH67-69L0%0.0
2-2East Tennessee St. (63.5)SCH71-81L0%0.0
2-9Mercer (204.6)SCH51-81L0%0.0
2-11The Citadel (317.6)SCH101-78W100%0.0
2-13Furman (99.8)SCH52-80L0%0.0
2-15Chattanooga (96.4)SCH68-74L0%0.0
2-18Samford (159.5)SCA80-61L0%0.0
2-22Wofford (194.0)SCH63-81L0%0.0
2-25UNC Greensboro (112.4)SCA0-08%-15.3
2-27Western Carolina (261.7)SCA0-045%-1.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

VMI's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


VMI's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  VMI.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VMISC26.4726.4613.9115.98-19.10-18.01
The CitadelSC5.014.8420.8319.94-2.92-2.91
FurmanSC5.064.8161.5461.881.171.14
SamfordSC4.934.7852.0053.070.200.29
MercerSC4.934.7836.0036.40-1.38-1.30
East Tennessee St.SC5.014.7876.0076.362.602.52
Western CarolinaSC3.084.7723.0822.39-1.66-2.64
UNC GreensboroSC3.084.7768.0066.691.111.59
ChattanoogaSC4.894.7466.6767.931.631.70
WoffordSC4.974.7440.0039.59-0.99-0.99
PresbyterianBSth2.472.328.338.16-2.05-1.94
CampbellBSth2.432.2537.5037.78-0.61-0.55
RadfordBSth2.352.2236.0038.35-0.66-0.52
Gardner WebbBSth2.392.1948.0047.80-0.10-0.10
Charleston SouthernBSth2.352.1530.4331.04-0.92-0.82
Virginia TechACC2.121.9569.2368.180.810.71
West VirginiaB122.081.9577.7877.061.151.05
DaytonA102.111.9580.0078.701.271.12
RichmondA102.041.8857.6958.550.310.32
UNC AshevilleBSth0.510.5374.0773.870.240.26
High PointBSth0.430.5044.0045.26-0.05-0.05
LibertyBSth0.510.4757.6957.630.080.07
WinthropBSth0.430.4476.0077.350.220.24
LongwoodBSth0.360.3416.0016.19-0.24-0.23
Miami FLACC0.150.1970.3767.240.060.07
USC UpstateASun0.200.1750.0049.750.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.190.1651.8552.250.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.110.1657.1455.800.020.02
Saint LouisA100.150.1632.1431.02-0.05-0.06
VirginiaACC0.150.1666.6767.600.050.06
DavidsonA100.150.1653.8552.600.010.01
FordhamA100.150.1644.4444.02-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.190.1662.9661.470.050.04
StetsonASun0.160.1329.6328.76-0.06-0.06
GeorgiaSEC0.150.1353.8554.930.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.150.1346.1547.50-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.150.1381.4881.510.100.08
Florida St.ACC0.150.1378.5776.210.090.07
North CarolinaACC0.150.1382.1480.660.100.08
College of CharlestonCAA0.110.1371.4372.700.050.06
Jacksonville St.OVC0.150.1351.8551.270.010.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.150.1340.7440.75-0.03-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.110.1353.8554.710.010.01
NavyPat0.110.1350.0048.770.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.150.1361.5460.470.030.03
La SalleA100.150.1353.8554.810.010.01
Iowa St.B120.110.1366.6764.750.040.04
TCUB120.110.1359.2657.620.020.02
ClemsonACC0.150.1351.8553.680.010.01
VCUA100.110.1382.1479.370.070.07
ColgatePat0.120.1031.0332.74-0.04-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.110.1046.4343.89-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1030.7730.10-0.04-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1053.5751.920.010.00
Georgia TechACC0.110.1055.5652.750.010.01
AkronMAC0.110.1077.7876.390.060.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.110.1057.6955.370.020.01
NebraskaB100.110.1044.0042.70-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.110.0935.7134.58-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.110.0964.2963.090.030.02
Rhode IslandA100.110.0966.6766.780.040.03
St. BonaventureA100.110.0962.9663.390.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.110.0966.6765.160.040.03
George WashingtonA100.070.0951.8551.210.000.00
Kansas St.B120.110.0960.7159.890.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0932.1430.40-0.03-0.04
Texas TechB120.110.0960.7159.310.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0736.3636.47-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.080.0761.5459.750.020.01
Arizona St.P120.080.0746.4344.09-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0769.2368.600.030.02
BradleyMVC0.070.0734.4834.78-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0727.5928.17-0.03-0.03
ColoradoP120.070.0755.5655.660.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.040.0750.0049.130.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.070.0755.5655.100.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0720.0021.74-0.05-0.04
LSUSEC0.070.0733.3331.80-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.040.070.003.38-0.04-0.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.040.0765.3864.780.010.02
VermontAE0.070.0782.7682.940.050.04
HamptonMEAC0.080.0641.6743.49-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.080.0653.5750.750.010.00
Appalachian St.SB0.040.0625.0027.77-0.02-0.03
AuburnSEC0.070.0660.7159.670.020.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0620.0022.21-0.04-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0688.8987.450.060.05
DetroitHorz0.070.0622.2222.38-0.04-0.04
FloridaSEC0.070.0682.1480.600.050.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0620.0020.88-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.040.0637.5042.38-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.040.0662.9661.410.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0625.0026.25-0.04-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0651.8550.690.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0644.0046.00-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0683.3384.080.050.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0634.7833.41-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.040.0675.0077.120.020.03
Ohio St.B100.040.0653.5752.340.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.070.0640.7440.12-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0633.3334.37-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.070.0644.0042.77-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0628.0029.86-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0642.8643.32-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0637.0436.81-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.070.0651.8553.220.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.070.0651.8554.430.000.01
MassachusettsA100.040.0648.1547.57-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.080.0657.1456.440.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0637.0438.57-0.02-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0651.8551.660.000.00
BaylorB120.040.0681.4878.550.020.03
KansasB120.070.0689.2987.840.060.05
OklahomaB120.070.0633.3333.59-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.070.0635.7134.84-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.040.0364.0064.920.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.040.0344.0045.06-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.040.0352.0053.050.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.040.0337.5039.90-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.040.0355.5656.900.000.00
HowardMEAC0.040.0319.2321.44-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.040.0385.7185.540.030.02
NorthwesternB100.040.0371.4368.340.020.01
PortlandWCC0.040.0329.6329.44-0.02-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.040.0388.8989.350.030.03
BucknellPat0.040.0373.3373.730.020.01
DukeACC0.040.0378.5776.170.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.040.0325.0026.38-0.02-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.040.0378.5778.520.020.02
MaineAE0.040.0317.2417.48-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.040.0377.7876.990.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.040.0330.7733.71-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.040.0360.7159.870.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.040.0351.7249.530.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.040.0375.0074.370.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.040.0361.5462.870.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.040.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.040.0337.9339.64-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.040.0358.6257.910.010.00
IllinoisB100.040.0355.5655.020.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.040.0333.3332.68-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.040.0314.2918.10-0.03-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.040.0351.7253.710.000.00
New HampshireAE0.040.0357.6958.050.010.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.040.0362.9662.600.010.01
TempleAmer0.040.0348.2850.61-0.000.00
UMKCWAC0.040.0348.0046.99-0.00-0.00