VMI

Conference:	SC
Expected RPI:	313.0
Current RPI:	313
Expected SOS:	259
Current SOS:	259
Current Record:	7-21
Expected Record:	7-21
Current Conf Record:	4-15
Expected Conf Record:	4-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-7
Current OOC Record:	3-6
Expected OOC Record:	3-6
Expected OOC RPI:	273
Expected OOC SOS:	300

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
7-21	313.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for VMI.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	North Carolina St. (64.0)	ACC	A	102-67	L	0%
11-14	Duquesne (259.0)	A10	A	77-61	L	0%
11-18	Presbyterian (319.0)	BSth	H	78-58	W	100%
11-25	American (336.0)	Pat	A	69-64	L	0%
11-28	Charleston Southern (261.0)	BSth	A	68-76	W	100%
12-2	Radford (128.0)	BSth	H	50-63	L	0%
12-5	Davidson (47.0)	A10	A	74-51	L	0%
12-9	Longwood (337.0)	BSth	H	81-70	W	100%
12-22	VCU (135.0)	A10	A	75-65	L	0%
12-30	Furman (97.0)	SC	H	57-87	L	0%
1-4	Wofford (129.0)	SC	A	92-53	L	0%
1-6	UNC Greensboro (65.0)	SC	H	61-63	L	0%
1-13	East Tennessee St. (93.0)	SC	A	89-48	L	0%
1-15	Western Carolina (215.0)	SC	A	65-58	L	0%
1-18	Mercer (174.0)	SC	H	56-62	L	0%
1-20	The Citadel (281.0)	SC	H	88-81	W	100%
1-24	Wofford (129.0)	SC	H	46-63	L	0%
1-27	Chattanooga (304.0)	SC	A	69-70	W	100%
1-29	Samford (296.0)	SC	A	93-79	L	0%
2-1	UNC Greensboro (65.0)	SC	A	73-51	L	0%
2-8	Western Carolina (215.0)	SC	H	60-72	L	0%
2-10	East Tennessee St. (93.0)	SC	H	56-70	L	0%
2-15	Mercer (174.0)	SC	A	82-58	L	0%
2-17	The Citadel (281.0)	SC	A	71-75	W	100%
2-20	Furman (97.0)	SC	A	76-54	L	0%
2-23	Samford (296.0)	SC	H	82-89	L	0%
2-25	Chattanooga (304.0)	SC	H	68-65	W	100%
3-2	The Citadel (281.0)	SC	N	78-70	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

VMI's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

VMI's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against VMI.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
VMI	SC	26.47	26.47	25.38	25.38	-13.03	-13.03
The Citadel	SC	6.35	6.35	26.92	26.92	-2.93	-2.93
UNC Greensboro	SC	4.87	4.87	75.86	75.86	2.52	2.52
East Tennessee St.	SC	4.75	4.75	70.00	70.00	1.90	1.90
Chattanooga	SC	4.69	4.69	27.59	27.59	-2.10	-2.10
Furman	SC	4.69	4.69	65.52	65.52	1.46	1.46
Wofford	SC	4.69	4.69	57.14	57.14	0.67	0.67
Mercer	SC	4.63	4.63	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Samford	SC	4.63	4.63	21.43	21.43	-2.64	-2.64
Western Carolina	SC	4.63	4.63	32.14	32.14	-1.65	-1.65
Presbyterian	BSth	2.08	2.08	28.57	28.57	-0.89	-0.89
Longwood	BSth	2.05	2.05	13.79	13.79	-1.49	-1.49
Charleston Southern	BSth	2.05	2.05	44.44	44.44	-0.23	-0.23
Radford	BSth	2.00	2.00	61.29	61.29	0.45	0.45
North Carolina St.	ACC	1.91	1.91	64.52	64.52	0.55	0.55
Davidson	A10	1.87	1.87	64.52	64.52	0.54	0.54
VCU	A10	1.84	1.84	53.12	53.12	0.12	0.12
Duquesne	A10	1.84	1.84	48.39	48.39	-0.06	-0.06
American	Pat	1.79	1.79	17.24	17.24	-1.17	-1.17
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.51	0.51	61.29	61.29	0.11	0.11
High Point	BSth	0.48	0.48	40.74	40.74	-0.09	-0.09
Liberty	BSth	0.39	0.39	54.84	54.84	0.04	0.04
Winthrop	BSth	0.35	0.35	57.14	57.14	0.05	0.05
Campbell	BSth	0.33	0.33	46.43	46.43	-0.02	-0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.24	0.24	37.93	37.93	-0.06	-0.06
Fordham	A10	0.22	0.22	29.03	29.03	-0.09	-0.09
North Carolina	ACC	0.20	0.20	71.43	71.43	0.09	0.09
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.18	0.18	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.18	0.18	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Tennessee	SEC	0.18	0.18	75.76	75.76	0.09	0.09
Clemson	ACC	0.17	0.17	71.88	71.88	0.08	0.08
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.17	0.17	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.17	0.17	78.12	78.12	0.09	0.09
George Washington	A10	0.17	0.17	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.17	0.17	78.12	78.12	0.09	0.09
Richmond	A10	0.17	0.17	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Dayton	A10	0.16	0.16	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.15	0.15	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.15	0.15	26.67	26.67	-0.07	-0.07
Elon	CAA	0.14	0.14	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.14	0.14	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
Massachusetts	A10	0.14	0.14	39.39	39.39	-0.03	-0.03
La Salle	A10	0.14	0.14	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.14	0.14	93.94	93.94	0.12	0.12
Saint Louis	A10	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.12	0.12	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Ohio St.	B10	0.12	0.12	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.12	0.12	9.68	9.68	-0.10	-0.10
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.12	0.12	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Memphis	Amer	0.12	0.12	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Charlotte	CUSA	0.12	0.12	17.86	17.86	-0.07	-0.07
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.11	0.11	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.11	0.11	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
George Mason	A10	0.11	0.11	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.09	0.09	19.35	19.35	-0.06	-0.06
UMBC	AE	0.09	0.09	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.09	0.09	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	12.50	12.50	-0.07	-0.07
Delaware	CAA	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.09	0.09	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Bucknell	Pat	0.09	0.09	73.53	73.53	0.04	0.04
California	P12	0.09	0.09	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
North Florida	ASun	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Akron	MAC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	6.67	6.67	-0.07	-0.07
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.06	0.06	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Army	Pat	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Boston University	Pat	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	Amer	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	CAA	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Colorado	P12	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Harvard	Ivy	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.06	0.06	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.06	0.06	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Loyola MD	Pat	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
LSU	SEC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
UCF	Amer	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Butler	BE	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.06	0.06	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SB	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Nevada	MWC	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Notre Dame	ACC	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	BE	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
USC Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.03	-0.03
Chicago St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	3.33	3.33	-0.03	-0.03
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.03	0.03	26.92	26.92	-0.01	-0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
East Carolina	Amer	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	83.33	83.33	0.02	0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00