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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


VMI

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:329.0
Current RPI:329
Expected SOS:170
Current SOS:170
Current Record:4-24
Expected Record:4-24
Current Conf Record:3-16
Expected Conf Record:3-16
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-5
Current OOC Record:1-8
Expected OOC Record:1-8
Expected OOC RPI:324
Expected OOC SOS:161



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
4-24329.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for VMI.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Richmond (80.0)A10A72-69L0%0.0
11-19Virginia Tech (48.0)ACCA88-72L0%0.0
11-22Presbyterian (347.0)BSthA77-67L0%0.0
11-26Campbell (246.0)BSthH53-67L0%0.0
11-30Radford (227.0)BSthA74-67L0%0.0
12-3Gardner Webb (186.0)BSthH68-86L0%0.0
12-10West Virginia (24.0)B12A90-55L0%0.0
12-13Charleston Southern (295.0)BSthH88-83W100%0.0
12-23Dayton (30.0)A10A92-56L0%0.0
12-31East Tennessee St. (55.0)SCA102-75L0%0.0
1-5Mercer (192.0)SCA68-50L0%0.0
1-7The Citadel (282.0)SCA79-74L0%0.0
1-12Western Carolina (271.0)SCH79-78W100%0.0
1-14UNC Greensboro (95.0)SCH82-91L0%0.0
1-19Wofford (190.0)SCA88-70L0%0.0
1-21Furman (96.0)SCA89-72L0%0.0
1-25Chattanooga (139.0)SCA64-80W100%0.0
1-28Samford (170.0)SCH67-69L0%0.0
2-2East Tennessee St. (55.0)SCH71-81L0%0.0
2-9Mercer (192.0)SCH51-81L0%0.0
2-11The Citadel (282.0)SCH101-78W100%0.0
2-13Furman (96.0)SCH52-80L0%0.0
2-15Chattanooga (139.0)SCH68-74L0%0.0
2-18Samford (170.0)SCA80-61L0%0.0
2-22Wofford (190.0)SCH63-81L0%0.0
2-25UNC Greensboro (95.0)SCA74-67L0%0.0
2-27Western Carolina (271.0)SCA81-68L0%0.0
3-3Samford (170.0)SCN79-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

VMI's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


VMI's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  VMI.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VMISC26.4626.4612.7012.70-19.74-19.74
SamfordSC6.456.4548.2848.28-0.22-0.22
East Tennessee St.SC4.804.8076.6776.672.562.56
UNC GreensboroSC4.784.7868.9768.971.811.81
The CitadelSC4.774.7728.5728.57-2.04-2.04
FurmanSC4.714.7160.7160.711.011.01
WoffordSC4.684.6839.2939.29-1.00-1.00
Western CarolinaSC4.654.6521.4321.43-2.66-2.66
MercerSC4.654.6539.2939.29-1.00-1.00
ChattanoogaSC4.624.6259.2659.260.860.86
CampbellBSth2.242.2443.3343.33-0.30-0.30
PresbyterianBSth2.232.237.417.41-1.90-1.90
RadfordBSth2.142.1437.9337.93-0.52-0.52
Gardner WebbBSth2.092.0951.7251.720.070.07
Charleston SouthernBSth2.052.0533.3333.33-0.68-0.68
Virginia TechACC1.881.8867.7467.740.670.67
West VirginiaB121.881.8875.7675.760.970.97
DaytonA101.871.8775.8675.860.970.97
RichmondA101.821.8261.2961.290.410.41
UNC AshevilleBSth0.510.5170.0070.000.200.20
WinthropBSth0.480.4880.0080.000.290.29
High PointBSth0.480.4842.8642.86-0.07-0.07
LibertyBSth0.450.4555.1755.170.050.05
LongwoodBSth0.340.3414.2914.29-0.24-0.24
DavidsonA100.170.1753.1253.120.010.01
Miami FLACC0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
Florida St.ACC0.170.1775.7675.760.090.09
Saint LouisA100.170.1736.3636.36-0.05-0.05
Wake ForestACC0.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
USC UpstateASun0.150.1546.4346.43-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
George MasonA100.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
VCUA100.140.1476.4776.470.080.08
FordhamA100.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
Iowa St.B120.140.1469.7069.700.050.05
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.120.1255.8855.880.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
College of CharlestonCAA0.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
StetsonASun0.120.1227.5927.59-0.05-0.05
La SalleA100.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
NavyPat0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
UMBCAE0.120.1257.1457.140.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.110.1184.3884.380.080.08
George WashingtonA100.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
TCUB120.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
Kansas St.B120.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0955.8855.880.010.01
AkronMAC0.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
ColgatePat0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
DuquesneA100.090.0931.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
MichiganB100.090.0968.5768.570.030.03
NebraskaB100.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
St. BonaventureA100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0828.1228.12-0.04-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0883.3383.330.060.06
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0837.0437.04-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Texas TechB120.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
TexasB120.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0636.0036.00-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
BradleyMVC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
FloridaSEC0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
LSUSEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
Ohio St.B100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
VermontAE0.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
HamptonMEAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
PittsburghACC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.063.333.33-0.05-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
DetroitHorz0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0629.4129.41-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
BaylorB120.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
OklahomaB120.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
SMUAmer0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
DukeACC0.030.0377.1477.140.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
MaineAE0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
IllinoisB100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
TempleAmer0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00