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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


VMI

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:319.7
Current RPI:165
Expected SOS:295
Current SOS:101
Current Record:1-2
Expected Record:7-20
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-9
Current OOC Record:1-2
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:331
Expected OOC SOS:327



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-11159.50.02%
15-12192.70.07%
14-13213.70.13%
13-14236.50.39%
12-15253.61.70%
11-16274.83.69%
10-17289.58.08%
9-18305.113.46%
8-19317.719.03%
7-20327.519.75%
6-21335.416.68%
5-22341.110.42%
4-23344.84.60%
3-24347.81.57%
2-25348.80.36%
1-26349.80.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for VMI.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10North Carolina St. (131.2)ACCA102-67L0%0.0
11-14Duquesne (253.1)A10A77-61L0%0.0
11-18Presbyterian (343.3)BSthH78-58W100%0.0
11-25American (295.7)PatA0-033%-5.3
11-28Charleston Southern (287.3)BSthA0-036%-4.4
12-2Radford (222.3)BSthH0-039%-3.5
12-5Davidson (46.9)A10A0-02%-25.6
12-9Longwood (333.8)BSthH0-072%6.9
12-22VCU (92.7)A10A0-03%-23.4
12-30Furman (153.0)SCH0-021%-9.6
1-4Wofford (238.5)SCA0-018%-10.8
1-6UNC Greensboro (186.8)SCH0-024%-8.3
1-13East Tennessee St. (158.0)SCA0-010%-15.2
1-15Western Carolina (294.1)SCA0-039%-3.4
1-18Mercer (85.2)SCH0-09%-16.0
1-20The Citadel (292.5)SCH0-053%1.0
1-24Wofford (238.5)SCH0-034%-4.8
1-27Chattanooga (248.9)SCA0-023%-9.0
1-29Samford (209.6)SCA0-015%-12.2
2-1UNC Greensboro (186.8)SCA0-012%-14.3
2-8Western Carolina (294.1)SCH0-059%2.6
2-10East Tennessee St. (158.0)SCH0-022%-9.2
2-15Mercer (85.2)SCA0-03%-22.0
2-17The Citadel (292.5)SCA0-034%-5.0
2-20Furman (153.0)SCA0-010%-15.6
2-23Samford (209.6)SCH0-030%-6.2
2-25Chattanooga (248.9)SCH0-040%-3.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

VMI's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


VMI's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  VMI.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VMISC34.0326.4833.3326.81-11.34-12.28
UNC GreensboroSC0.004.860.0054.600.000.45
East Tennessee St.SC0.004.7633.3355.910.000.56
FurmanSC0.004.7650.0057.590.000.72
SamfordSC0.004.7633.3345.800.00-0.40
ChattanoogaSC0.004.760.0036.720.00-1.26
MercerSC0.004.7675.0074.900.002.37
Western CarolinaSC0.004.760.0019.080.00-2.94
WoffordSC0.004.760.0037.140.00-1.22
The CitadelSC0.004.7533.3328.310.00-2.06
PresbyterianBSth18.752.150.0016.61-18.75-1.44
LongwoodBSth0.002.120.0016.640.00-1.42
Charleston SouthernBSth2.082.1233.3334.15-0.69-0.67
RadfordBSth0.002.0650.0045.590.00-0.18
North Carolina St.ACC19.441.99100.0053.0719.440.12
DavidsonA100.001.95100.0068.990.000.74
DuquesneA1016.671.92100.0045.9316.67-0.16
VCUA100.001.9266.6765.480.000.59
AmericanPat0.001.850.0029.030.00-0.78
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.530.0064.600.000.16
High PointBSth0.000.4833.3347.540.00-0.02
LibertyBSth0.000.4033.3360.630.000.09
WinthropBSth0.000.370.0055.380.000.04
CampbellBSth0.000.340.0051.410.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.270.0043.690.00-0.03
FordhamA100.000.2633.3336.170.00-0.07
North CarolinaACC0.000.23100.0078.160.000.13
ClemsonACC0.000.19100.0054.960.000.02
George WashingtonA100.000.1966.6745.880.00-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.1775.0061.940.000.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.1766.6748.280.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.170.0034.040.00-0.05
TennesseeSEC2.780.16100.0048.352.78-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.16100.0074.140.000.08
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1650.0050.360.000.00
ElonCAA0.000.1633.3350.840.000.00
RichmondA100.000.160.0030.280.00-0.06
La SalleA100.000.1675.0051.210.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.1650.0042.160.00-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.1650.0054.450.000.01
DaytonA100.000.1666.6762.150.000.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.14100.0068.200.000.05
CharlotteCUSA0.000.130.0045.640.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.130.0028.720.00-0.06
Rhode IslandA100.000.1350.0073.230.000.06
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1350.0068.280.000.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.130.0031.380.00-0.05
MemphisAmer0.000.1350.0050.670.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1350.0039.640.00-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.1325.0035.000.00-0.04
George MasonA100.000.1375.0048.930.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.13100.0070.960.000.05
Saint LouisA100.000.1366.6753.390.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.100.0031.810.00-0.04
Ohio St.B100.000.10100.0059.870.000.02
DelawareCAA0.000.1050.0048.680.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.100.0057.520.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.100.0036.690.00-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1066.6759.540.000.02
BucknellPat0.000.100.0061.460.000.02
DukeACC0.000.10100.0083.580.000.06
New HampshireAE0.000.100.0048.110.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.090.0021.590.00-0.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.090.0018.970.00-0.06
MaristMAAC0.000.070.0023.830.00-0.04
NevadaMWC0.000.07100.0078.910.000.04
AkronMAC0.000.07100.0060.370.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.07100.0061.320.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.070.0026.180.00-0.03
CaliforniaP120.000.0766.6740.170.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.07100.0082.350.000.04
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0733.3347.670.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0766.6768.790.000.02
DrexelCAA0.000.0733.3339.360.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.070.0018.400.00-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.000.0750.0065.140.000.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0733.3354.200.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.070.0044.500.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0766.6749.100.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.000.07100.0071.700.000.03
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0775.0058.930.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0725.0050.070.000.00
Texas TechB120.000.07100.0062.630.000.02
UABCUSA0.000.07100.0078.750.000.04
UCFAmer0.000.07100.0061.780.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.07100.0071.560.000.03
WyomingMWC0.000.07100.0057.360.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0633.3359.680.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0022.610.00-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0071.180.000.03
ArmyPat0.000.0650.0053.620.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.060.0047.690.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.000.0675.0052.360.000.00
ColgatePat0.000.0650.0050.310.000.00
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0029.290.00-0.03
Fort WayneSum0.000.0666.6756.330.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.06100.0064.470.000.02
Holy CrossPat0.000.06100.0048.790.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.0675.0071.830.000.03
LafayettePat0.000.060.0021.970.00-0.04
LehighPat0.000.0666.6751.580.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.06100.0057.270.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.060.0038.210.00-0.02
LSUSEC0.000.06100.0046.080.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0650.0050.870.000.00
NavyPat0.000.0650.0052.870.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0650.0049.480.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0073.730.000.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0025.140.00-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.060.0044.130.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.0633.3346.410.00-0.00
ValparaisoMVC0.000.06100.0059.760.000.01
XavierBE0.000.06100.0078.990.000.04
CornellIvy0.000.0633.3334.680.00-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0666.6756.400.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0028.770.00-0.03
PittsburghACC0.000.0633.3334.560.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.060.0036.070.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0450.0052.380.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0433.3352.000.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.040.0039.010.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0350.0069.320.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0350.0043.710.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.000.03100.0062.760.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0333.3350.350.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0333.3334.490.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.03100.0075.130.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0059.240.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.03100.0069.350.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0366.6749.990.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0083.700.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0375.0045.290.00-0.00
BryantNEC2.080.030.0030.23-2.08-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.770.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0046.080.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.030.0029.620.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.03100.0062.930.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0066.990.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0074.500.000.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0325.0047.800.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0375.0072.950.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.03100.0060.400.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.03100.0067.950.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.03100.0062.240.000.01
TexasB120.000.03100.0063.830.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.030.0026.150.00-0.02
WagnerNEC0.000.0366.6749.940.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0366.6771.200.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.03100.0038.710.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.03100.0065.580.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.03100.0059.250.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC4.170.030.0030.91-4.17-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0333.3333.620.00-0.01