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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


UMKC

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:184.0
Current RPI:184
Expected SOS:145
Current SOS:145
Current Record:14-16
Expected Record:14-16
Current Conf Record:9-7
Expected Conf Record:9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-2
Current OOC Record:5-9
Expected OOC Record:5-9
Expected OOC RPI:201
Expected OOC SOS:93



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-16184.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UMKC.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Creighton (26.0)BEA89-82L0%0.0
11-15Drake (314.0)MVCH68-62W100%0.0
11-19Bowling Green (225.0)MACA69-71W100%0.0
11-20Murray St. (230.0)OVCN85-74W100%0.0
11-21Green Bay (157.0)HorzN95-77L0%0.0
11-28Southeast Missouri St. (274.0)OVCH86-75W100%0.0
11-30South Dakota (123.0)SumH84-82W100%0.0
12-3South Dakota St. (160.0)SumA77-68L0%0.0
12-6Kansas (4.0)B12A105-62L0%0.0
12-15Nebraska Omaha (132.0)SumH75-80L0%0.0
12-17West Virginia (24.0)B12A112-67L0%0.0
12-20Tennessee Martin (164.0)OVCH66-77L0%0.0
12-29Mississippi St. (150.0)SECA77-54L0%0.0
1-2USC Upstate (229.0)ASunH75-84L0%0.0
1-5New Mexico St. (59.0)WACH64-77L0%0.0
1-7UT Rio Grande Valley (319.0)WACH83-79W100%0.0
1-12Seattle (287.0)WACA68-84W100%0.0
1-14Utah Valley (206.0)WACA86-76L0%0.0
1-21New Mexico St. (59.0)WACA94-71L0%0.0
1-26Grand Canyon (131.0)WACH83-77W100%0.0
1-28Cal St. Bakersfield (75.0)WACH63-74L0%0.0
2-4UT Rio Grande Valley (319.0)WACA60-73W100%0.0
2-9Utah Valley (206.0)WACH84-76W100%0.0
2-11Seattle (287.0)WACH102-72W100%0.0
2-18Chicago St. (318.0)WACH84-65W100%0.0
2-23Cal St. Bakersfield (75.0)WACA71-62L0%0.0
2-25Grand Canyon (131.0)WACA84-77L0%0.0
3-4Chicago St. (318.0)WACA82-87W100%0.0
3-9UT Rio Grande Valley (319.0)WACN82-78W100%0.0
3-10New Mexico St. (59.0)WACN78-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UMKC's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UMKC's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UMKC.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UMKCWAC26.4826.4846.2746.27-1.98-1.98
New Mexico St.WAC5.885.8881.4881.483.703.70
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC5.815.8126.9226.92-2.68-2.68
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC4.294.2965.3865.381.321.32
Utah ValleyWAC4.274.2742.3142.31-0.66-0.66
Chicago St.WAC4.264.2611.1111.11-3.31-3.31
SeattleWAC4.204.2040.0040.00-0.84-0.84
Grand CanyonWAC4.154.1570.3770.371.691.69
Southeast Missouri St.OVC1.921.9243.3343.33-0.26-0.26
Tennessee MartinOVC1.891.8960.0060.000.380.38
South Dakota St.Sum1.881.8848.3948.39-0.06-0.06
Murray St.OVC1.881.8846.6746.67-0.13-0.13
South DakotaSum1.851.8566.6766.670.620.62
Nebraska OmahaSum1.801.8053.3353.330.120.12
Bowling GreenMAC1.751.7540.0040.00-0.35-0.35
Green BayHorz1.721.7253.5753.570.120.12
DrakeMVC1.721.7221.4321.43-0.98-0.98
West VirginiaB121.721.7275.7675.760.890.89
KansasB121.721.7287.1087.101.271.27
CreightonBE1.671.6771.8871.880.730.73
Mississippi St.SEC1.671.6748.3948.39-0.05-0.05
USC UpstateASun1.671.6744.4444.44-0.19-0.19
Western IllinoisSum0.270.2723.0823.08-0.15-0.15
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.250.2517.8617.86-0.16-0.16
DenverSum0.250.2553.3353.330.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.210.2118.5218.52-0.13-0.13
North FloridaASun0.210.2136.6736.67-0.05-0.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.200.2041.9441.94-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.190.1945.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.190.1957.1457.140.030.03
IUPUISum0.190.1940.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.180.1821.4321.43-0.11-0.11
Iowa St.B120.180.1869.7069.700.070.07
Kansas St.B120.180.1860.6160.610.040.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.170.1721.8821.88-0.10-0.10
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.170.1760.7160.710.040.04
BradleyMVC0.170.1737.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Missouri St.MVC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
DePaulBE0.160.1628.1228.12-0.07-0.07
Austin PeayOVC0.160.1632.1432.14-0.06-0.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.160.1644.4444.44-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.160.1660.7160.710.030.03
UC DavisBW0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.150.1520.0020.00-0.09-0.09
Portland St.BSky0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.140.1473.3373.330.070.07
UC IrvineBW0.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
TCUB120.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
TexasB120.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
Notre DameACC0.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
BYUWCC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
UTSACUSA0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.120.1288.2488.240.090.09
UC RiversideBW0.120.1222.2222.22-0.06-0.06
ValparaisoHorz0.110.1174.1974.190.060.06
HoustonAmer0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
IowaB100.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
PortlandWCC0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
WisconsinB100.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
DetroitHorz0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
EvansvilleMVC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.110.1181.2581.250.070.07
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
ToledoMAC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
Arizona St.P120.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.1153.5753.570.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
BaylorB120.100.1077.4277.420.060.06
OklahomaB120.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Texas TechB120.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
UCFAmer0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.090.0996.9796.970.080.08
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
MemphisAmer0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.0910.0010.00-0.07-0.07
Texas St.SB0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
Washington St.P120.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.080.0877.1477.140.050.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0829.4129.41-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
Air ForceMWC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0837.0437.04-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.080.0877.7877.780.040.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
BuffaloMAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
KentuckySEC0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
NebraskaB100.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
VillanovaBE0.080.0891.1891.180.060.06
XavierBE0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
ColoradoP120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0612.9012.90-0.05-0.05
WashingtonP120.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
NJITASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.060.0688.2488.240.050.05
StetsonASun0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
UtahP120.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
AlbanyAE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
MaristMAAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
Penn St.B100.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
TroySB0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.056.906.90-0.05-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
IdahoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
CornellIvy0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
MontanaBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
USCP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
LehighPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
New HampshireAE0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
RadfordBSth0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
VirginiaACC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
VMISC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01