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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


UMKC

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:256.0
Current RPI:256
Expected SOS:131
Current SOS:131
Current Record:8-21
Expected Record:8-21
Current Conf Record:5-10
Expected Conf Record:5-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-5
Current OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC RPI:240
Expected OOC SOS:99



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-21256.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UMKC.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Wichita St. (16.0)AmerA109-57L0%0.0
11-14Kansas St. (53.0)B12A72-51L0%0.0
11-16Loyola Chicago (22.0)MVCH56-66L0%0.0
11-20Manhattan (228.0)MAACN63-74W100%0.0
11-21Georgia Southern (140.0)SBN78-75L0%0.0
11-22Penn (112.0)IvyN68-65L0%0.0
11-26Tennessee Martin (306.0)OVCA55-65W100%0.0
11-30South Dakota (91.0)SumH63-82L0%0.0
12-6Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)OVCA91-87L0%0.0
12-9North Carolina St. (64.0)ACCA88-69L0%0.0
12-16Incarnate Word (347.0)SlndA77-73L0%0.0
12-19Central Michigan (167.0)MACH86-92L0%0.0
12-22South Dakota St. (37.0)SumH60-85L0%0.0
1-2USC Upstate (344.0)ASunA77-79W100%0.0
1-6UT Rio Grande Valley (229.0)WACH61-73L0%0.0
1-11Utah Valley (83.0)WACA95-59L0%0.0
1-13Seattle (165.0)WACA77-75L0%0.0
1-18Cal St. Bakersfield (220.0)WACH62-59W100%0.0
1-20Grand Canyon (156.0)WACH69-86L0%0.0
1-27New Mexico St. (35.0)WACH48-73L0%0.0
2-1Grand Canyon (156.0)WACA79-62L0%0.0
2-3Cal St. Bakersfield (220.0)WACA81-58L0%0.0
2-8Seattle (165.0)WACH74-67W100%0.0
2-10Utah Valley (83.0)WACH77-70W100%0.0
2-15Chicago St. (335.0)WACH76-67W100%0.0
2-22UT Rio Grande Valley (229.0)WACA59-83W100%0.0
2-24New Mexico St. (35.0)WACA82-58L0%0.0
3-3Chicago St. (335.0)WACA96-82L0%0.0
3-8Grand Canyon (156.0)WACN77-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UMKC's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UMKC's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UMKC.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UMKCWAC26.3526.3528.1528.15-11.52-11.52
Grand CanyonWAC6.006.0062.0762.071.451.45
New Mexico St.WAC4.404.4082.1482.142.832.83
Utah ValleyWAC4.344.3466.6766.671.451.45
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC4.334.3332.0032.00-1.56-1.56
SeattleWAC4.324.3257.1457.140.620.62
Chicago St.WAC4.264.260.000.00-4.26-4.26
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC4.264.2642.8642.86-0.61-0.61
Georgia SouthernSB1.851.8560.0060.000.370.37
South Dakota St.Sum1.841.8479.3179.311.081.08
South DakotaSum1.811.8172.4172.410.810.81
Southeast Missouri St.OVC1.811.8139.2939.29-0.39-0.39
Central MichiganMAC1.791.7951.7251.720.060.06
Kansas St.B121.781.7865.6265.620.560.56
Tennessee MartinOVC1.781.7828.5728.57-0.76-0.76
Wichita St.Amer1.751.7577.4277.420.960.96
USC UpstateASun1.751.7511.1111.11-1.36-1.36
Incarnate WordSlnd1.721.728.708.70-1.42-1.42
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.721.7283.8783.871.171.17
ManhattanMAAC1.721.7246.6746.67-0.11-0.11
North Carolina St.ACC1.721.7264.5264.520.500.50
PennIvy1.721.7273.3373.330.800.80
Grambling St.SWAC0.220.2253.3353.330.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.210.2130.0030.00-0.08-0.08
UC RiversideBW0.200.2024.1424.14-0.10-0.10
BradleyMVC0.200.2059.3859.380.040.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.190.1930.7730.77-0.07-0.07
DenverSum0.170.1746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.170.1736.6736.67-0.05-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.170.1751.6151.610.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.170.1748.4848.48-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.170.1748.3948.39-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.170.1741.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.170.1746.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.150.1560.7160.710.030.03
UTEPCUSA0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.150.1528.5728.57-0.06-0.06
Nebraska OmahaSum0.140.1424.1424.14-0.07-0.07
North Dakota St.Sum0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Oral RobertsSum0.140.1428.5728.57-0.06-0.06
Notre DameACC0.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
Little RockSB0.140.1420.0020.00-0.08-0.08
LamarSlnd0.140.1453.5753.570.010.01
IdahoBSky0.130.1368.9768.970.050.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Morehead St.OVC0.120.1222.2222.22-0.07-0.07
Murray St.OVC0.120.1282.7682.760.080.08
Northern ArizonaBSky0.120.1213.3313.33-0.09-0.09
Bowling GreenMAC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
Idaho St.BSky0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
DukeACC0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
Fort WayneSum0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.110.1184.8584.850.080.08
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Texas St.SB0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
SMUAmer0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
HarvardIvy0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
TulsaAmer0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.110.1173.3373.330.050.05
LouisvilleACC0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.1112.5012.50-0.08-0.08
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.110.1179.4179.410.060.06
TCUB120.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.1044.4444.44-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
ArizonaP120.090.0979.4179.410.050.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Saint LouisA100.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.090.0975.7675.760.040.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
IowaB100.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
CaliforniaP120.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Miami FLACC0.080.0870.9770.970.040.04
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Washington St.P120.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
IonaMAAC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
YaleIvy0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
St. John'sBE0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
OklahomaB120.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0710.7110.71-0.06-0.06
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0780.0080.000.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
DelawareCAA0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
FloridaSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
LipscombASun0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
NJITASun0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
BYUWCC0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
HawaiiBW0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
KentuckySEC0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
UTSACUSA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
AkronMAC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
DetroitHorz0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
OhioMAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.060.0682.3582.350.040.04
RiceCUSA0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
UMBCAE0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
USCP120.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
WashingtonP120.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
WisconsinB100.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
BrownIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.060.0619.3519.35-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
SienaMAAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
ClemsonACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
UCFAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ValparaisoMVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.040.0488.2488.240.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.040.0432.0032.00-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.040.048.008.00-0.03-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.040.0463.3363.330.010.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
MississippiSEC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.036.676.67-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
FordhamA100.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
NavyPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
BryantNEC0.030.039.689.68-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0393.9493.940.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
VMISC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01