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Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


UMKC

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:261.9
Current RPI:253
Expected SOS:134
Current SOS:131
Current Record:4-15
Expected Record:7-21
Current Conf Record:1-4
Expected Conf Record:4-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-5
Current OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC RPI:252
Expected OOC SOS:107



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-17202.10.11%
10-18217.81.34%
9-19232.16.93%
8-20246.721.23%
7-21261.135.03%
6-22275.726.47%
5-23290.88.33%
4-24302.60.55%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UMKC.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Wichita St. (18.2)AmerA109-57L0%0.0
11-14Kansas St. (59.0)B12A72-51L0%0.0
11-16Loyola Chicago (58.2)MVCH56-66L0%0.0
11-20Manhattan (203.8)MAACN63-74W100%0.0
11-21Georgia Southern (118.0)SBN78-75L0%0.0
11-22Penn (173.5)IvyN68-65L0%0.0
11-26Tennessee Martin (301.1)OVCA55-65W100%0.0
11-30South Dakota (98.5)SumH63-82L0%0.0
12-6Southeast Missouri St. (242.9)OVCA91-87L0%0.0
12-9North Carolina St. (104.7)ACCA88-69L0%0.0
12-16Incarnate Word (338.0)SlndA77-73L0%0.0
12-19Central Michigan (146.9)MACH86-92L0%0.0
12-22South Dakota St. (65.8)SumH60-85L0%0.0
1-2USC Upstate (335.3)ASunA77-79W100%0.0
1-6UT Rio Grande Valley (227.1)WACH61-73L0%0.0
1-11Utah Valley (84.1)WACA95-59L0%0.0
1-13Seattle (199.9)WACA77-75L0%0.0
1-18Cal St. Bakersfield (216.6)WACH62-59W100%0.0
1-20Grand Canyon (148.5)WACH69-86L0%0.0
1-27New Mexico St. (43.2)WACH0-09%-14.9
2-1Grand Canyon (148.5)WACA0-06%-17.7
2-3Cal St. Bakersfield (216.6)WACA0-027%-6.9
2-8Seattle (199.9)WACH0-040%-2.7
2-10Utah Valley (84.1)WACH0-022%-8.6
2-15Chicago St. (336.6)WACH0-088%13.0
2-22UT Rio Grande Valley (227.1)WACA0-026%-7.0
2-24New Mexico St. (43.2)WACA0-03%-21.3
3-3Chicago St. (336.6)WACA0-072%6.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UMKC's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UMKC's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UMKC.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UMKCWAC26.3826.3423.1626.39-14.16-12.44
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC3.004.4331.2532.92-1.12-1.51
Chicago St.WAC0.294.350.001.82-0.29-4.19
Grand CanyonWAC2.774.3568.4269.291.021.68
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC2.924.3542.1141.93-0.46-0.70
SeattleWAC2.764.3455.5652.560.310.22
New Mexico St.WAC0.294.3483.3383.450.192.90
Utah ValleyWAC2.774.3464.7164.200.821.23
Georgia SouthernSB2.791.9264.7164.160.820.54
South Dakota St.Sum2.701.8870.5971.931.110.83
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.701.8838.8941.48-0.60-0.32
Central MichiganMAC2.711.8560.0057.180.540.27
South DakotaSum2.631.8572.2271.341.170.79
Kansas St.B122.771.8573.6864.171.310.52
Tennessee MartinOVC2.631.8527.7832.60-1.17-0.64
Wichita St.Amer2.701.8277.7876.601.500.97
USC UpstateASun2.701.8111.7618.70-2.06-1.14
Incarnate WordSlnd2.631.790.0016.60-2.63-1.19
Loyola ChicagoMVC2.631.7977.7873.281.460.83
ManhattanMAAC2.631.7952.6352.610.140.09
North Carolina St.ACC2.631.7963.1654.890.690.17
PennIvy2.631.7962.5061.360.660.41
Grambling St.SWAC0.270.2236.8444.03-0.07-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.220.2236.8432.75-0.06-0.07
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.130.207.6923.24-0.11-0.11
UC RiversideBW0.210.1917.6523.84-0.13-0.10
UC IrvineBW0.200.1930.0039.95-0.08-0.04
DrakeMVC0.140.1955.0048.980.01-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.140.1941.1839.14-0.03-0.04
BradleyMVC0.210.1865.0057.890.060.03
UTEPCUSA0.100.1733.3334.10-0.03-0.05
DenverSum0.220.1733.3336.47-0.07-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.240.1650.0051.390.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.210.1630.0032.54-0.08-0.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.140.1616.6724.90-0.09-0.08
IllinoisB100.140.1645.0043.62-0.01-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.280.1670.0068.290.110.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.270.1547.0654.68-0.020.01
Northern IowaMVC0.140.1544.4450.08-0.020.00
Notre DameACC0.140.1563.1661.000.040.03
Oklahoma St.B120.200.1568.4254.040.070.01
LamarSlnd0.180.1450.0054.900.000.01
IdahoBSky0.150.1464.7166.850.050.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.260.1443.7549.11-0.03-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.150.1356.2556.820.020.02
Fort WayneSum0.070.1352.6351.680.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.140.1325.0028.02-0.07-0.06
New MexicoMWC0.000.1345.0048.570.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.140.1344.4450.31-0.020.00
Western IllinoisSum0.140.1342.8635.22-0.02-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.210.1311.1115.30-0.17-0.09
Idaho St.BSky0.140.1343.7540.91-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.1390.4888.970.060.10
DukeACC0.210.1389.4785.240.160.09
San DiegoWCC0.070.1363.1657.530.020.02
BelmontOVC0.210.1371.4374.670.090.06
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1352.9452.250.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.140.1244.4446.01-0.02-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.140.1229.4133.93-0.06-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.1231.5832.71-0.05-0.04
Little RockSB0.140.1222.2225.19-0.08-0.06
Morehead St.OVC0.140.1223.5328.71-0.07-0.05
Murray St.OVC0.140.1270.5975.960.060.06
Texas St.SB0.070.1257.8950.210.010.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.1260.0062.010.010.03
Arkansas St.SB0.210.1227.7831.08-0.09-0.05
SMUAmer0.140.1270.0070.610.050.05
TulsaAmer0.200.1255.0053.330.020.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.1152.9452.670.000.01
UCLAP120.150.1065.0062.050.040.02
North DakotaBSky0.150.1029.4134.78-0.06-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.220.1058.8249.740.04-0.00
ArizonaP120.140.1080.0078.940.090.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.140.1038.8946.05-0.03-0.01
HoustonAmer0.240.1078.9573.000.140.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.1057.8966.270.020.03
JacksonvilleASun0.140.0933.3333.76-0.05-0.03
Miami FLACC0.070.0977.7870.410.040.04
IowaB100.070.0947.6243.94-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0970.0068.210.030.03
Kent St.MAC0.150.0944.4444.91-0.02-0.01
Saint LouisA100.140.0947.3746.93-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.160.0966.6767.670.050.03
CaliforniaP120.140.0936.8431.11-0.04-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0957.8953.220.010.01
Washington St.P120.140.0947.3741.43-0.01-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.140.0978.9576.980.080.05
EvansvilleMVC0.140.0952.6347.500.01-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.090.0010.26-0.14-0.07
Norfolk St.MEAC0.140.0917.6534.76-0.09-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.140.0955.0052.480.010.00
HarvardIvy0.070.0937.5046.70-0.02-0.01
MarquetteBE0.070.0968.4260.530.030.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.130.0933.3340.35-0.04-0.02
TowsonCAA0.220.0963.1665.980.060.03
KansasB120.140.0984.2179.760.100.05
TCUB120.140.0975.0067.830.070.03
Georgia TechACC0.070.0952.6343.040.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.070.0978.9569.820.040.04
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0927.7827.11-0.03-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.0957.1460.410.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.210.0938.8944.07-0.05-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.140.0927.7841.03-0.06-0.02
TempleAmer0.080.0952.6351.740.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.140.0942.1140.46-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.140.0957.8953.280.020.01
OklahomaB120.140.0977.7868.030.080.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.075.8819.390.00-0.05
New OrleansSlnd0.100.0737.5045.24-0.03-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.0780.0078.870.060.04
ArkansasSEC0.080.0768.4264.160.030.02
DelawareCAA0.080.0747.3743.00-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0766.6763.450.030.02
FloridaSEC0.170.0773.6871.600.080.03
BYUWCC0.070.0780.9576.240.050.03
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0745.0041.310.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0758.8261.440.000.02
HawaiiBW0.070.0768.7564.010.030.02
KentuckySEC0.070.0773.6868.040.030.02
LipscombASun0.000.0752.9459.380.000.01
NJITASun0.070.0738.8942.58-0.02-0.01
North FloridaASun0.070.0731.5835.15-0.03-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0725.0039.910.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.070.0733.3336.93-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.070.0758.8262.450.010.02
USCP120.000.0771.4368.300.000.02
UTSACUSA0.070.0741.1839.66-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.070.0756.2557.430.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.070.0672.2274.940.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.080.0661.1158.710.020.01
DetroitHorz0.070.0621.0525.99-0.04-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0646.6747.00-0.01-0.00
OhioMAC0.080.0647.0648.43-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.070.0627.7827.26-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.070.0670.0061.460.030.01
AkronMAC0.070.0647.0644.92-0.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.150.0650.0047.650.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.140.0625.0031.44-0.07-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0666.6755.900.020.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0650.0052.500.000.00
BrownIvy0.000.0650.0045.130.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0620.0032.24-0.05-0.02
CornellIvy0.080.0633.3333.23-0.03-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.0621.4326.340.00-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0610.0019.62-0.05-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.070.0666.6765.550.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.070.0625.0043.18-0.03-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0647.3746.09-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0644.4446.03-0.01-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.070.0616.6716.15-0.04-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.070.0644.4446.66-0.01-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0655.0050.370.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0661.9065.150.000.02
PrincetonIvy0.080.0652.9460.230.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0690.4888.390.000.05
RiceCUSA0.070.0611.1117.68-0.05-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.070.0650.0045.850.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.070.0647.3742.16-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.140.0635.2940.46-0.04-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0668.4263.970.020.02
TroySB0.070.0638.8944.43-0.02-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.0655.5655.550.000.01
ValparaisoMVC0.070.0647.3748.77-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.0650.0046.270.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.000.0641.1847.610.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.140.0631.5836.43-0.05-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0689.4785.550.000.04
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0652.6347.380.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0660.0064.130.000.02
MaristMAAC0.070.0621.0521.99-0.04-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0657.1453.040.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0635.0031.820.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.070.0665.0065.330.020.02
SienaMAAC0.070.0628.5729.93-0.03-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.0668.4260.830.000.01
ClemsonACC0.130.0684.2173.180.090.03
Iowa St.B120.070.0657.8946.220.01-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0676.1972.570.000.03
TexasB120.000.0665.0058.600.000.01
Texas TechB120.070.0678.9571.750.040.03
West VirginiaB120.070.0680.0076.040.040.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.0445.0049.28-0.01-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.100.0480.9583.260.060.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.0427.7829.10-0.04-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.100.0428.5731.24-0.04-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.047.1414.820.00-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0452.9455.030.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0315.7922.64-0.05-0.02
CampbellBSth0.070.0347.0647.41-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.070.0360.0053.720.010.00
CreightonBE0.070.0375.0070.720.040.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0338.8940.78-0.02-0.01
MinnesotaB100.070.0363.6457.610.020.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0352.6345.860.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0358.8257.130.010.00
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0311.7612.80-0.05-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0341.1838.47-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0352.6358.610.000.01
WyomingMWC0.070.0361.1156.790.020.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0321.0523.52-0.04-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.080.0323.5328.20-0.04-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0338.8943.36-0.02-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0347.0641.380.00-0.01
MichiganB100.080.0376.1970.800.040.01
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0337.5033.77-0.02-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0331.5836.23-0.03-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0333.3339.89-0.02-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0317.6519.29-0.04-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0322.2228.57-0.04-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.070.0327.7838.12-0.03-0.01
DaytonA100.080.0347.3750.94-0.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.030.008.42-0.08-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0377.7879.160.040.02
George MasonA100.070.0345.0041.29-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.080.0310.5326.29-0.06-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0342.1145.98-0.01-0.00
La SalleA100.080.0340.0042.69-0.02-0.00
LafayettePat0.080.0322.2227.46-0.04-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0383.3381.420.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0326.6729.120.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0352.6355.280.000.00
LSUSEC0.070.0361.1153.190.020.00
MarshallCUSA0.070.0368.4263.610.030.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0345.0047.06-0.01-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0372.2258.880.030.01
NavyPat0.080.0360.0055.160.020.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0051.640.000.00
SamfordSC0.070.0327.7832.67-0.03-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.070.0331.5840.82-0.03-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0322.2227.31-0.04-0.01
VillanovaBE0.080.0394.7490.310.070.02
Wright St.Horz0.070.0368.4269.260.030.01
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0361.9063.170.020.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0366.6765.630.020.01
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0342.1132.46-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.070.0331.5829.03-0.02-0.01
HofstraCAA0.070.0357.8959.500.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.070.0330.0032.58-0.03-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0365.0058.540.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0342.1146.09-0.01-0.00
Seton HallBE0.070.0375.0067.910.030.01
South FloridaAmer0.070.0335.0026.13-0.02-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0333.3335.21-0.02-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0363.1657.870.000.00
AmericanPat0.070.0325.0026.03-0.03-0.01
Arizona St.P120.070.0378.9576.160.040.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0365.0054.600.000.00
BryantNEC0.070.039.5217.12-0.05-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0373.6869.660.000.01
George WashingtonA100.070.0345.0043.49-0.01-0.00
Penn St.B100.070.0361.9055.820.020.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0340.0030.880.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0326.3230.45-0.03-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0368.4261.280.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.070.0372.2268.930.030.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0368.7567.610.020.01
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0336.8435.58-0.02-0.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0394.7486.110.060.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0370.0060.400.000.01
VMISC0.070.0325.0024.14-0.03-0.01