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Through games of Feb 22, 2017.


UMKC

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:182.1
Current RPI:186
Expected SOS:144
Current SOS:148
Current Record:12-13
Expected Record:13-15
Current Conf Record:7-4
Expected Conf Record:8-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-3
Current OOC Record:5-9
Expected OOC Record:5-9
Expected OOC RPI:204
Expected OOC SOS:89



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-13142.52.87%
14-14165.224.97%
13-15185.656.99%
12-16204.315.17%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UMKC.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Creighton (25.4)BEA89-82L0%0.0
11-15Drake (301.3)MVCH68-62W100%0.0
11-19Bowling Green (222.6)MACA69-71W100%0.0
11-20Murray St. (228.4)OVCN85-74W100%0.0
11-21Green Bay (132.9)HorzN95-77L0%0.0
11-28Southeast Missouri St. (284.7)OVCH86-75W100%0.0
11-30South Dakota (122.8)SumH84-82W100%0.0
12-3South Dakota St. (206.9)SumA77-68L0%0.0
12-6Kansas (2.3)B12A105-62L0%0.0
12-15Nebraska Omaha (156.3)SumH75-80L0%0.0
12-17West Virginia (25.2)B12A112-67L0%0.0
12-20Tennessee Martin (174.7)OVCH66-77L0%0.0
12-29Mississippi St. (143.0)SECA77-54L0%0.0
1-2USC Upstate (216.4)ASunH75-84L0%0.0
1-5New Mexico St. (56.2)WACH64-77L0%0.0
1-7UT Rio Grande Valley (300.9)WACH83-79W100%0.0
1-12Seattle (287.0)WACA68-84W100%0.0
1-14Utah Valley (231.1)WACA86-76L0%0.0
1-21New Mexico St. (56.2)WACA94-71L0%0.0
1-26Grand Canyon (149.6)WACH83-77W100%0.0
1-28Cal St. Bakersfield (77.9)WACH63-74L0%0.0
2-4UT Rio Grande Valley (300.9)WACA60-73W100%0.0
2-9Utah Valley (231.1)WACH84-76W100%0.0
2-11Seattle (287.0)WACH102-72W100%0.0
2-18Chicago St. (314.1)WACH84-65W100%0.0
2-23Cal St. Bakersfield (77.9)WACA0-015%-11.1
2-25Grand Canyon (149.6)WACA0-025%-7.4
3-4Chicago St. (314.1)WACA0-076%7.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UMKC's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UMKC's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UMKC.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UMKCWAC26.3226.3545.0546.62-2.61-1.78
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC4.584.4330.4330.55-1.79-1.72
Chicago St.WAC2.794.4012.5011.80-2.10-3.36
Grand CanyonWAC2.764.3768.0067.470.991.53
New Mexico St.WAC4.504.3681.8282.812.862.86
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC2.754.3668.1869.641.001.71
SeattleWAC4.494.3642.8640.97-0.64-0.79
Utah ValleyWAC4.494.3633.3335.51-1.50-1.26
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.232.0442.3143.67-0.34-0.26
Murray St.OVC2.192.0048.0048.21-0.09-0.07
South Dakota St.Sum2.221.9740.7441.30-0.41-0.34
Tennessee MartinOVC2.191.9757.6958.310.340.33
South DakotaSum2.221.9765.3865.060.680.59
Nebraska OmahaSum2.151.9150.0050.030.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC2.111.8842.3141.57-0.33-0.32
Green BayHorz2.081.8556.0056.750.250.25
DrakeMVC2.071.8523.0824.32-1.12-0.95
KansasB122.071.8488.8987.431.611.38
West VirginiaB122.071.8477.7877.061.151.00
CreightonBE2.001.7976.9274.541.080.88
Mississippi St.SEC2.001.7950.0048.990.00-0.04
USC UpstateASun2.001.7948.0047.82-0.08-0.08
Western IllinoisSum0.260.2826.0925.92-0.12-0.14
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.300.2814.8115.43-0.21-0.19
DenverSum0.270.2657.1456.680.040.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.210.2412.5014.87-0.16-0.17
Oral RobertsSum0.260.2221.4321.43-0.15-0.12
North FloridaASun0.200.2030.7732.11-0.08-0.07
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.200.1914.2918.10-0.14-0.12
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.160.1944.4443.17-0.02-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.190.1951.7250.330.010.00
Austin PeayOVC0.150.1930.7730.10-0.06-0.07
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.230.1946.1546.96-0.02-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.220.1960.0060.590.040.04
IUPUISum0.180.1938.4639.08-0.04-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.180.1965.3864.780.060.06
DePaulBE0.190.1932.1430.89-0.07-0.07
Iowa St.B120.180.1866.6764.750.060.05
Kansas St.B120.220.1860.7159.890.050.04
UC DavisBW0.210.1756.0055.930.030.02
Wright St.Horz0.160.1662.9662.450.040.04
UTEPCUSA0.200.1640.0041.64-0.04-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.160.1622.2224.27-0.09-0.08
BradleyMVC0.110.1634.4834.78-0.04-0.05
Central MichiganMAC0.150.1653.8551.910.010.01
OaklandHorz0.120.1674.0773.500.060.07
MississippiSEC0.190.1560.7159.870.040.03
BYUWCC0.130.1465.5264.140.040.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.170.1464.0065.600.050.04
UTSACUSA0.170.1436.0035.97-0.05-0.04
Notre DameACC0.130.1375.0074.370.060.06
Portland St.BSky0.120.1340.9144.15-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.170.1357.1456.440.020.02
ArizonaP120.080.1389.2987.680.060.10
UC RiversideBW0.130.1326.0928.38-0.06-0.06
UC IrvineBW0.150.1351.8554.430.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.160.1360.8762.050.030.03
ValparaisoHorz0.120.1378.5777.380.070.07
Jacksonville St.OVC0.150.1351.8551.270.010.00
Illinois St.MVC0.150.1382.1481.630.100.08
Southern IllinoisMVC0.150.1348.2848.17-0.01-0.00
DetroitHorz0.110.1322.2222.38-0.06-0.07
EvansvilleMVC0.150.1342.8643.65-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.120.1381.4880.840.070.08
Northern KentuckyHorz0.150.1262.9662.600.040.03
Morehead St.OVC0.150.1244.0046.00-0.02-0.01
BaylorB120.110.1281.4878.550.070.07
OklahomaB120.110.1233.3333.59-0.04-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.110.1266.6765.160.040.03
TCUB120.110.1259.2657.620.020.02
Texas TechB120.140.1260.7159.310.030.02
TexasB120.110.1235.7134.84-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.080.1057.6957.750.010.02
GonzagaWCC0.120.10100.0099.810.120.10
UCFAmer0.120.1064.2963.820.040.03
Washington St.P120.120.1042.3139.94-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.120.1020.0022.21-0.07-0.05
Arizona St.P120.120.1046.4344.09-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.120.1053.5751.590.010.00
Long Beach St.BW0.120.0940.7442.89-0.02-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.110.0925.0026.71-0.06-0.04
HoustonAmer0.120.0970.3769.130.050.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.110.0925.0026.25-0.06-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.110.0948.1547.59-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.120.0929.6329.44-0.05-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.110.0986.2186.330.080.07
BelmontOVC0.110.0980.0079.920.070.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.0929.6331.16-0.05-0.04
Montana St.BSky0.110.0946.1546.03-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.0957.6956.380.020.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.0937.0436.81-0.03-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.110.0961.5459.750.030.02
GeorgetownBE0.110.0950.0049.130.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.110.0948.1549.49-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.070.0978.5776.170.040.05
Kent St.MAC0.070.0955.5655.100.010.01
KentuckySEC0.110.0982.1481.760.070.06
NebraskaB100.110.0944.0042.70-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.110.0977.7876.390.060.05
BuffaloMAC0.070.0950.0050.440.000.00
ColoradoP120.090.0755.5655.660.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.040.0726.0925.97-0.02-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.090.0716.0016.87-0.06-0.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.0720.0021.74-0.05-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.040.0763.6464.970.010.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.040.0723.0823.14-0.02-0.04
SMUAmer0.040.0785.7185.540.030.05
Southern UtahBSky0.090.0712.0013.36-0.07-0.05
UtahP120.090.0760.0060.170.020.01
Utah St.MWC0.090.0742.3143.98-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.090.0733.3332.52-0.03-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.090.0760.8760.770.020.01
Air ForceMWC0.080.0734.6233.56-0.03-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0765.3864.150.030.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0773.0873.880.040.03
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0750.0049.370.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0740.7440.75-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.080.0755.5655.680.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0734.7833.41-0.03-0.02
NJITASun0.040.0729.6330.60-0.02-0.03
SamfordSC0.080.0755.5656.300.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.080.0740.7440.12-0.02-0.01
StetsonASun0.080.0729.6328.76-0.03-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.0650.0049.820.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0637.5040.16-0.02-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0635.7135.66-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.080.0650.0052.050.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0657.1457.070.010.01
MemphisAmer0.080.0666.6763.170.030.02
NorthwesternB100.040.0671.4368.340.020.02
Saint LouisA100.040.0632.1431.02-0.01-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0610.7111.38-0.06-0.05
Texas St.SB0.080.0654.1753.210.010.00
TroySB0.040.0653.8552.820.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0632.1431.91-0.03-0.02
AuburnSEC0.080.0660.7159.670.020.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0674.0773.870.040.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.064.005.36-0.07-0.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0637.5039.90-0.02-0.01
AlbanyAE0.040.0658.6259.810.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.040.0652.1749.960.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.040.0625.0027.75-0.02-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.040.0625.9326.05-0.02-0.03
IdahoBSky0.070.0647.8350.77-0.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.040.0678.5778.520.020.04
MaristMAAC0.040.0624.1424.50-0.02-0.03
Penn St.B100.040.0650.0048.740.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.040.0657.6958.100.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0677.7877.990.040.03
IllinoisB100.070.0655.5655.020.010.01
IndianaB100.070.0653.5752.940.010.00
Ball St.MAC0.070.0662.9661.340.020.01
ButlerBE0.070.0678.5777.620.040.03
LSUSEC0.040.0633.3331.80-0.01-0.02
MarquetteBE0.040.0662.9661.410.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.040.0630.7729.92-0.01-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0646.1546.92-0.01-0.00
OhioMAC0.070.0668.0068.550.030.02
ProvidenceBE0.070.0660.7160.840.020.01
Seton HallBE0.070.0662.9661.760.020.01
South CarolinaSEC0.040.0670.3770.540.020.02
St. John'sBE0.040.0642.8642.05-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.070.0651.8552.250.000.00
VillanovaBE0.040.0689.6688.760.030.05
XavierBE0.070.0664.2964.300.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0653.8554.930.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0651.8551.660.000.00
CampbellBSth0.040.0340.0040.08-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.040.0329.1729.85-0.02-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.040.0341.6742.37-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.040.0331.0332.74-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.040.0371.4372.700.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.040.0312.0011.56-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.040.0323.0822.08-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.040.0362.0762.320.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.040.0337.5042.38-0.01-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.040.0385.1985.420.030.02
PacificWCC0.040.0332.1432.21-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.040.0353.5750.750.000.00
RiceCUSA0.040.0364.0063.500.010.01
USCP120.040.0377.7875.870.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.040.0369.2368.600.010.01
CaliforniaP120.040.0366.6766.210.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.040.0358.6258.690.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.040.0327.5928.17-0.02-0.01
CornellIvy0.040.0325.0025.31-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.040.0335.7134.58-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0330.4331.13-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.040.0342.8642.57-0.01-0.00
MontanaBSky0.040.0350.0050.340.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.040.0334.7836.95-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.040.0353.8553.510.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.040.0375.0071.920.020.01
Boise St.MWC0.040.0364.0064.920.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.040.0388.8987.450.030.02
FloridaSEC0.040.0382.1480.600.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.040.0360.0059.400.010.01
LehighPat0.040.0359.2660.160.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.040.0316.0016.19-0.03-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.040.0348.1549.03-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.040.0325.9325.77-0.02-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.040.0344.0045.06-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.040.0351.7249.530.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.040.0348.0047.41-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.040.0327.2728.66-0.02-0.01
Oregon St.P120.040.0314.2913.58-0.03-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.040.0350.0046.860.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.040.0324.0022.54-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0353.5751.920.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.040.0342.3143.63-0.01-0.00
DavidsonA100.040.0353.8552.600.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.040.0333.3332.68-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.040.0351.7253.710.000.00
New HampshireAE0.040.0357.6958.050.010.00
RadfordBSth0.040.0338.4640.55-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.040.0348.2848.54-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.040.0350.0047.370.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.040.0348.2850.61-0.000.00
UABCUSA0.040.0351.8553.220.000.00
UNLVMWC0.040.0335.7134.80-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.040.0366.6767.600.010.01
VMISC0.040.0316.0016.75-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.040.0322.2222.75-0.02-0.02