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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Colorado

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:35.0
Current RPI:35
Expected SOS:39
Current SOS:39
Current Record:21-11
Expected Record:21-11
Current Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:45
Expected OOC SOS:133



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1135.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Colorado.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Iowa St. (23.0)B12N68-62L0%0.0
11-17Auburn (175.0)SECA84-91W100%0.0
11-20Portland (249.0)WCCH85-63W100%0.0
11-22Nebraska Omaha (144.0)SumH87-82W100%0.0
11-25Air Force (226.0)MWCH81-70W100%0.0
11-29Northern Colorado (304.0)BSkyH82-52W100%0.0
12-6Colorado St. (181.0)MWCA77-88W100%0.0
12-12BYU (76.0)WCCH92-83W100%0.0
12-18Nicholls St. (313.0)SlndH85-68W100%0.0
12-19Hampton (155.0)MEACH95-53W100%0.0
12-22Penn St. (125.0)B10N71-70W100%0.0
12-23SMU (13.0)AmerN66-70L0%0.0
1-1California (16.0)P12A79-65L0%0.0
1-3Stanford (86.0)P12A55-56W100%0.0
1-8Utah (8.0)P12H54-56L0%0.0
1-13Oregon St. (33.0)P12H71-54W100%0.0
1-17Oregon (2.0)P12H91-87W100%0.0
1-20Washington (83.0)P12A95-83L0%0.0
1-23Washington St. (212.0)P12A70-75W100%0.0
1-27Stanford (86.0)P12H91-75W100%0.0
1-31California (16.0)P12H70-62W100%0.0
2-4Oregon (2.0)P12A76-56L0%0.0
2-6Oregon St. (33.0)P12A60-56L0%0.0
2-11Washington St. (212.0)P12H88-81W100%0.0
2-13Washington (83.0)P12H81-80W100%0.0
2-17USC (51.0)P12A79-72L0%0.0
2-20UCLA (102.0)P12A77-53L0%0.0
2-24Arizona (26.0)P12H75-72W100%0.0
2-28Arizona St. (99.0)P12H79-69W100%0.0
3-5Utah (8.0)P12A57-55L0%0.0
3-9Washington St. (212.0)P12N80-56W100%0.0
3-10Arizona (26.0)P12N82-78L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Colorado's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Colorado's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Colorado.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ColoradoP1226.3026.3065.8765.878.358.35
Washington St.P125.325.3229.6329.63-2.17-2.17
UtahP124.044.0474.1974.191.961.96
OregonP123.963.9683.8783.872.692.69
CaliforniaP123.943.9470.9770.971.651.65
ArizonaP123.923.9277.4277.422.152.15
WashingtonP123.923.9256.6756.670.520.52
StanfordP123.913.9151.8551.850.140.14
Oregon St.P123.883.8860.7160.710.830.83
USCP122.432.4362.5062.500.610.61
Arizona St.P122.412.4148.3948.39-0.08-0.08
UCLAP122.382.3845.1645.16-0.23-0.23
SMUAmer1.671.6782.7682.761.091.09
Colorado St.MWC1.671.6751.6151.610.050.05
BYUWCC1.661.6670.9770.970.700.70
PortlandWCC1.641.6436.6736.67-0.44-0.44
Nicholls St.Slnd1.611.6126.6726.67-0.75-0.75
Northern ColoradoBSky1.611.6128.5728.57-0.69-0.69
HamptonMEAC1.611.6168.9768.970.610.61
Air ForceMWC1.611.6141.3841.38-0.28-0.28
Nebraska OmahaSum1.591.5957.1457.140.230.23
AuburnSEC1.561.5636.6736.67-0.42-0.42
Iowa St.B121.561.5664.5264.520.450.45
Penn St.B101.561.5651.6151.610.050.05
GonzagaWCC0.370.3778.1278.120.210.21
UNLVMWC0.270.2751.6151.610.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.270.2760.0060.000.050.05
New MexicoMWC0.250.2553.1253.120.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.220.2256.6756.670.030.03
Idaho St.BSky0.200.2048.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.200.2083.8783.870.140.14
TexasB120.200.2062.5062.500.050.05
Fresno St.MWC0.200.2071.8871.880.090.09
San Diego St.MWC0.190.1971.8871.880.090.09
Northern ArizonaBSky0.180.1810.7110.71-0.14-0.14
Loyola MarymountWCC0.180.1843.3343.33-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.180.1840.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.170.1733.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Long Beach St.BW0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
Portland St.BSky0.160.1637.9337.93-0.04-0.04
IdahoBSky0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
NevadaMWC0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
KansasB120.150.1587.8887.880.120.12
Northern IowaMVC0.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
OklahomaB120.150.1578.1278.120.090.09
Savannah St.MEAC0.150.1548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.150.1523.0823.08-0.08-0.08
DenverSum0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.130.1328.5728.57-0.05-0.05
San Jose St.MWC0.130.1321.4321.43-0.07-0.07
Utah St.MWC0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
TCUB120.120.1236.3636.36-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.120.1220.8320.83-0.07-0.07
San DiegoWCC0.120.1227.5927.59-0.06-0.06
TulsaAmer0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Weber St.BSky0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
MontanaBSky0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
IPFWSum0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.100.1026.9226.92-0.05-0.05
MissouriSEC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1016.6716.67-0.07-0.07
East CarolinaAmer0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.100.1080.0080.000.060.06
San FranciscoWCC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
AlabamaSEC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.100.1056.0056.000.010.01
BaylorB120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
SeattleWAC0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
DePaulBE0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Texas St.SB0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
MemphisAmer0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.080.0844.1244.12-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Ohio St.B100.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
KentuckySEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
TempleAmer0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
IowaB100.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Kansas St.B120.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
OaklandHorz0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Green BayHorz0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
IUPUISum0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0529.1729.17-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
TulaneAmer0.050.0535.2935.29-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
UC DavisBW0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0522.8622.86-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
YaleIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0582.1482.140.030.03
XavierBE0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
BelmontOVC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
PennIvy0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Cal PolyBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
DavidsonA100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
DukeACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Miami FLACC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
NavyPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
MercerSC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0272.4172.410.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.020.023.453.45-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
DrexelCAA0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
IndianaB100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
MarquetteBE0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
MarylandB100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0282.3582.350.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
VMISC0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
LafayettePat0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01