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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Colorado

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:84.8
Current RPI:196
Expected SOS:83
Current SOS:274
Current Record:5-2
Expected Record:18-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:5-2
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:103
Expected OOC SOS:146



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-414.00.01%
25-522.20.08%
24-625.20.37%
23-730.61.30%
22-838.33.18%
21-947.57.10%
20-1057.512.03%
19-1168.716.50%
18-1281.618.00%
17-1395.916.01%
16-14109.612.29%
15-15125.67.37%
14-16142.33.69%
13-17160.31.43%
12-18177.90.50%
11-19197.50.13%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Colorado.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Sacramento St. (337.5)BSkyH90-53W100%0.0
11-14Seattle (250.2)WACH67-55W100%0.0
11-17Louisiana Monroe (242.9)SBH89-70W100%0.0
11-21Notre Dame (26.0)ACCN83-89L0%0.0
11-22Texas (135.5)B12N54-68W100%0.0
11-27Wofford (257.2)SCH75-60W100%0.0
11-30Colorado St. (89.8)MWCH58-72L0%0.0
12-3Portland (108.8)WCCA0-059%2.6
12-7Xavier (11.9)BEH0-034%-4.8
12-10BYU (66.1)WCCA0-041%-2.8
12-19Air Force (197.4)MWCA0-072%6.9
12-22Eastern Washington (219.8)BSkyH0-093%17.6
1-1Utah (80.8)P12A0-040%-3.2
1-5Arizona St. (165.8)P12A0-067%5.4
1-7Arizona (28.2)P12A0-028%-7.2
1-12UCLA (19.0)P12H0-032%-5.8
1-15USC (44.4)P12H0-051%0.2
1-18Washington (105.3)P12A0-045%-1.5
1-21Washington St. (196.7)P12A0-070%6.4
1-26Oregon St. (264.9)P12H0-091%16.4
1-28Oregon (50.4)P12H0-052%0.7
2-2Stanford (54.1)P12A0-040%-3.2
2-5California (68.2)P12A0-039%-3.4
2-9Washington (105.3)P12H0-065%4.7
2-12Washington St. (196.7)P12H0-085%12.6
2-16Oregon St. (264.9)P12A0-080%10.2
2-18Oregon (50.4)P12A0-032%-5.5
2-23Utah (80.8)P12H0-060%3.0
3-2Stanford (54.1)P12H0-060%3.0
3-4California (68.2)P12H0-059%2.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Colorado's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Colorado's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Colorado.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ColoradoP1229.4426.2558.6257.745.084.06
UtahP120.004.1475.0061.930.000.99
Oregon St.P120.004.1028.5724.45-0.00-2.10
StanfordP120.604.1075.0059.760.300.80
OregonP120.004.0771.4367.380.001.42
CaliforniaP120.004.0783.3364.520.001.18
WashingtonP120.004.0557.1453.190.000.26
Washington St.P120.004.0450.0037.910.00-0.98
UCLAP120.002.48100.0084.050.001.69
USCP120.002.48100.0076.280.001.30
ArizonaP120.002.4685.7170.940.001.03
Arizona St.P120.002.4657.1436.160.00-0.68
SeattleWAC8.371.8425.0044.34-4.18-0.21
Eastern WashingtonBSky1.311.8266.6753.050.440.11
PortlandWCC0.001.8060.0057.720.000.28
XavierBE0.001.76100.0075.110.000.88
Colorado St.MWC7.141.7580.0060.114.290.35
Sacramento St.BSky7.141.750.0022.11-7.14-0.98
BYUWCC0.001.7571.4368.980.000.66
Louisiana MonroeSB8.451.7325.0033.77-4.23-0.56
TexasB127.861.7260.0037.441.57-0.43
Notre DameACC7.861.70100.0074.187.860.82
Air ForceMWC0.001.7050.0043.230.00-0.23
WoffordSC7.141.670.0034.83-7.14-0.51
MontanaBSky0.000.2614.2947.44-0.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.2450.0062.460.000.06
San FranciscoWCC0.600.2383.3350.740.400.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.2360.0039.610.00-0.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.2160.0058.950.000.04
IdahoBSky0.000.2040.0050.88-0.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.2040.0037.44-0.00-0.05
Boise St.MWC0.000.2050.0058.980.000.04
San Diego St.MWC0.000.2075.0074.990.000.10
UNLVMWC0.000.2071.4349.590.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.000.2075.0070.470.000.08
TCUB120.000.19100.0059.480.000.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1937.5036.24-0.00-0.05
Long Beach St.BW0.000.190.0039.35-0.00-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.000.19100.0091.060.000.16
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1714.2928.15-0.00-0.08
Weber St.BSky0.000.1720.0054.94-0.000.02
WyomingMWC0.000.1760.0048.590.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.600.1750.0049.010.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.17100.0089.040.000.13
Seton HallBE0.000.1771.4354.520.000.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.1628.5727.50-0.00-0.07
Southern UtahBSky0.000.150.0023.26-0.00-0.08
New Mexico St.WAC0.600.1571.4368.100.260.05
UC DavisBW0.600.1557.1448.410.09-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.1516.6740.71-0.00-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.000.1525.0040.37-0.00-0.03
ButlerBE0.000.14100.0075.690.000.07
Utah St.MWC0.000.1450.0053.560.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.1485.7155.890.000.02
CreightonBE0.000.14100.0076.650.000.07
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1433.3345.60-0.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.1433.3335.92-0.00-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.000.1450.0035.230.00-0.04
BaylorB120.000.14100.0074.460.000.07
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.120.0018.22-0.00-0.08
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.1216.6732.62-0.00-0.04
UC RiversideBW0.000.120.0033.43-0.00-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1250.0059.670.000.02
Idaho St.BSky0.000.1214.2929.81-0.00-0.05
Miami FLACC0.000.1171.4365.740.000.04
New MexicoMWC0.000.1171.4358.670.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.710.1150.0051.820.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1116.6743.29-0.00-0.02
KansasB120.000.1185.7176.170.000.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.110.0024.19-0.00-0.06
GeorgetownBE0.000.1150.0047.560.00-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0925.0024.28-0.00-0.05
Chicago St.WAC0.510.090.0017.30-0.51-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0950.0056.260.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0933.3353.29-0.000.01
DenverSum0.600.0933.3341.11-0.20-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0966.6769.810.000.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.090.0033.44-0.00-0.03
The CitadelSC0.000.0940.0027.05-0.00-0.04
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0928.5739.44-0.00-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0925.0030.93-0.00-0.03
SMUAmer0.000.0957.1469.300.000.03
BryantNEC1.220.0828.5750.20-0.520.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.600.0857.1464.940.090.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.600.080.0032.39-0.60-0.03
ArmyPat0.000.0833.3345.58-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.600.0850.0056.430.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0866.6739.720.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0816.6730.02-0.00-0.03
NorthwesternB101.110.0871.4366.220.470.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.0866.6756.020.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0825.0063.95-0.000.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0850.0054.690.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0885.7174.430.000.04
VirginiaACC0.000.08100.0082.550.000.05
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0816.6736.45-0.00-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0866.6766.100.000.03
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0840.0057.49-0.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.08100.0083.120.000.05
UMKCWAC0.000.0671.4356.050.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0683.3380.700.000.04
FurmanSC0.000.0620.0049.38-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.000.0650.0053.050.000.00
SamfordSC0.000.0657.1455.810.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0666.6758.420.000.01
VMISC0.000.060.0021.15-0.00-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0616.6718.96-0.00-0.04
South DakotaSum0.000.0657.1447.220.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.600.0650.0043.610.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0685.7168.390.000.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0650.0045.410.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0660.0067.410.000.02
HarvardIvy0.000.060.0043.04-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0633.3346.81-0.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.000.0660.0057.900.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0666.6761.340.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0666.6754.420.000.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0043.310.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0675.0064.960.000.02
TroySB0.000.0633.3332.23-0.00-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0633.3338.76-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0640.0067.95-0.000.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0614.2937.52-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0625.0034.47-0.00-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0642.8634.17-0.00-0.02
YaleIvy0.000.0633.3364.14-0.000.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0666.6751.090.000.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0660.0043.970.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0671.4343.020.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0039.200.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0628.5728.46-0.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0550.0027.250.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0566.6753.460.000.00
DePaulBE0.000.0580.0035.960.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0585.7162.410.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0571.4368.970.000.02
KentuckySEC0.000.05100.0086.250.000.04
LouisvilleACC0.000.0585.7175.950.000.03
MichiganB100.000.0571.4366.530.000.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0550.0045.920.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.000.0583.3351.920.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0583.3356.560.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0571.4356.280.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0571.4374.450.000.03
St. John'sBE0.000.0528.5733.92-0.00-0.02
Texas TechB120.000.0585.7163.780.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0571.4352.370.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0583.3380.550.000.03
MarquetteBE0.000.0571.4363.090.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0024.25-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0024.77-0.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.710.0383.3374.620.480.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0325.0053.29-0.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0340.0041.65-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.710.0350.0029.280.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.710.0371.4349.770.31-0.00
VermontAE0.710.0362.5071.630.180.01
AkronMAC0.000.0383.3369.840.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0320.0036.00-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0375.0047.510.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0023.46-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0328.5734.18-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0357.1459.480.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0357.1447.320.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.600.030.0034.23-0.60-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0320.0041.93-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0350.0052.140.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0034.01-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0383.3361.150.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.710.0325.0056.71-0.360.00
StetsonASun0.000.0328.5728.26-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0385.7178.150.000.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0371.4386.030.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.0328.5730.63-0.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0366.6772.440.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0333.3348.73-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0383.3362.840.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0340.0050.91-0.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0314.2929.15-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0385.7180.960.000.02
ColgatePat0.000.0320.0041.31-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.000.0383.3368.880.000.01
DukeACC0.000.0387.5078.680.000.02
Fort WayneSum0.000.0366.6770.930.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6754.380.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.0357.1442.660.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.600.030.0037.92-0.60-0.01
IowaB100.510.0342.8644.33-0.07-0.00
LehighPat0.000.0333.3367.01-0.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.510.0333.3340.49-0.17-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0350.0061.590.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0385.7180.010.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.32-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0371.4350.570.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0061.810.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0385.7172.660.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0385.7155.550.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0342.8638.05-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0333.3326.75-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0360.0052.760.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6770.140.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0357.1467.020.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0314.2926.81-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0357.1461.940.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.920.000.01