Colorado

Conference:	P12
Expected RPI:	38.0
Current RPI:	38
Expected SOS:	24
Current SOS:	24
Current Record:	21-11
Expected Record:	21-11
Current Conf Record:	11-9
Expected Conf Record:	11-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	10-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	2-0
Current OOC Record:	10-2
Expected OOC Record:	10-2
Expected OOC RPI:	13
Expected OOC SOS:	37

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
21-11	38.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Colorado.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Wofford (250.0)	SC	H	74-59	W	100%
11-15	Dayton (114.0)	A10	N	67-57	W	100%
11-16	Baylor (71.0)	B12	N	58-60	W	100%
11-18	Murray St. (110.0)	OVC	N	74-81	W	100%
11-25	Air Force (80.0)	MWC	H	89-74	W	100%
11-27	Texas Southern (184.0)	SWAC	H	85-80	W	100%
12-1	Wyoming (75.0)	MWC	A	76-69	L	0%
12-5	Colorado St. (18.0)	MWC	H	70-61	W	100%
12-8	Kansas (5.0)	B12	A	90-54	L	0%
12-12	Fresno St. (135.0)	MWC	A	43-50	W	100%
12-21	Northern Arizona (255.0)	BSky	H	98-51	W	100%
12-29	Hartford (187.0)	AE	H	80-52	W	100%
1-3	Arizona (16.0)	P12	A	92-83	L	0%
1-6	Arizona St. (90.0)	P12	A	65-56	L	0%
1-10	Southern California (118.0)	P12	H	66-60	W	100%
1-12	UCLA (26.0)	P12	H	75-78	L	0%
1-16	Washington (88.0)	P12	A	64-54	L	0%
1-19	Washington St. (196.0)	P12	A	49-58	W	100%
1-24	Stanford (77.0)	P12	H	75-54	W	100%
1-27	California (54.0)	P12	H	81-71	W	100%
2-2	Utah (161.0)	P12	A	58-55	L	0%
2-7	Oregon (48.0)	P12	A	47-48	W	100%
2-10	Oregon St. (181.0)	P12	A	68-72	W	100%
2-14	Arizona (16.0)	P12	H	71-58	W	100%
2-16	Arizona St. (90.0)	P12	H	62-63	L	0%
2-21	Utah (161.0)	P12	H	60-50	W	100%
2-27	Stanford (77.0)	P12	A	63-65	W	100%
3-2	California (54.0)	P12	A	62-46	L	0%
3-7	Oregon (48.0)	P12	H	76-53	W	100%
3-9	Oregon St. (181.0)	P12	H	58-64	L	0%
3-13	Oregon St. (181.0)	P12	N	74-68	W	100%
3-14	Arizona (16.0)	P12	N	79-69	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Colorado's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Colorado's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Colorado.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Colorado	P12	26.33	26.33	65.94	65.94	8.39	8.39
Oregon St.	P12	5.37	5.37	44.83	44.83	-0.56	-0.56
Arizona	P12	5.34	5.34	79.31	79.31	3.13	3.13
Utah	P12	4.02	4.02	41.38	41.38	-0.69	-0.69
Oregon	P12	3.96	3.96	81.25	81.25	2.47	2.47
Arizona St.	P12	3.88	3.88	61.29	61.29	0.88	0.88
Stanford	P12	3.88	3.88	60.00	60.00	0.78	0.78
California	P12	3.88	3.88	65.52	65.52	1.20	1.20
UCLA	P12	2.51	2.51	72.73	72.73	1.14	1.14
Washington	P12	2.43	2.43	53.12	53.12	0.15	0.15
Washington St.	P12	2.41	2.41	41.94	41.94	-0.39	-0.39
Southern California	P12	2.39	2.39	45.16	45.16	-0.23	-0.23
Fresno St.	MWC	1.79	1.79	33.33	33.33	-0.60	-0.60
Colorado St.	MWC	1.78	1.78	76.67	76.67	0.95	0.95
Wyoming	MWC	1.72	1.72	55.17	55.17	0.18	0.18
Air Force	MWC	1.72	1.72	55.56	55.56	0.19	0.19
Kansas	B12	1.71	1.71	84.85	84.85	1.19	1.19
Northern Arizona	BSky	1.68	1.68	35.48	35.48	-0.49	-0.49
Dayton	A10	1.61	1.61	56.67	56.67	0.22	0.22
Hartford	AE	1.61	1.61	58.62	58.62	0.28	0.28
Baylor	B12	1.61	1.61	56.67	56.67	0.21	0.21
Murray St.	OVC	1.59	1.59	67.86	67.86	0.57	0.57
Texas Southern	SWAC	1.56	1.56	56.67	56.67	0.21	0.21
Wofford	SC	1.56	1.56	40.00	40.00	-0.31	-0.31
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.39	0.39	72.73	72.73	0.18	0.18
San Diego St.	MWC	0.36	0.36	66.67	66.67	0.12	0.12
Nevada	MWC	0.31	0.31	36.67	36.67	-0.08	-0.08
Boise St.	MWC	0.29	0.29	65.52	65.52	0.09	0.09
New Mexico	MWC	0.26	0.26	85.29	85.29	0.19	0.19
Texas Tech	B12	0.24	0.24	35.48	35.48	-0.07	-0.07
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.20	0.20	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.18	0.18	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Texas	B12	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Idaho St.	BSky	0.17	0.17	17.24	17.24	-0.11	-0.11
Portland St.	BSky	0.17	0.17	23.08	23.08	-0.09	-0.09
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.15	0.15	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Denver	WAC	0.15	0.15	70.00	70.00	0.06	0.06
Montana St.	BSky	0.15	0.15	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.15	0.15	44.44	44.44	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.14	0.14	78.79	78.79	0.08	0.08
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.14	0.14	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.13	0.13	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.13	0.13	80.00	80.00	0.08	0.08
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Grambling	SWAC	0.12	0.12	0.00	0.00	-0.12	-0.12
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.12	0.12	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.12	0.12	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.12	0.12	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.10	0.10	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Richmond	A10	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.10	0.10	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	28.12	28.12	-0.04	-0.04
Northwestern	B10	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.10	0.10	80.00	80.00	0.06	0.06
Creighton	MVC	0.10	0.10	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Texas Christian	B12	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
West Virginia	B12	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.08	0.08	14.29	14.29	-0.06	-0.06
Pacific	BW	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.08	0.08	21.43	21.43	-0.04	-0.04
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.08	0.08	23.33	23.33	-0.04	-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Albany	AE	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
College of Charleston	SC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Georgia Southern	SC	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Xavier	A10	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.07	0.07	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.07	0.07	79.31	79.31	0.04	0.04
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.07	0.07	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Clemson	ACC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.07	0.07	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.07	0.07	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.07	0.07	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
Miami FL	ACC	0.07	0.07	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Minnesota	B10	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.07	0.07	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.07	0.07	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.07	0.07	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
St. Louis	A10	0.07	0.07	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Missouri	SEC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Nebraska	B10	0.07	0.07	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	28.00	28.00	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.05	6.90	6.90	-0.04	-0.04
Boston University	AE	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Maine	AE	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.05	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Butler	A10	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Elon	SC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
NC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Texas St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	93.75	93.75	0.04	0.04
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
North Dakota	BSky	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Temple	A10	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.05	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
New Orleans	ind	0.03	0.03	18.18	18.18	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	67.86	67.86	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Florida International	SB	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Idaho	WAC	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.02	0.02	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.02	0.02	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.02	0.02	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.02	0.02	35.71	35.71	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
American	Pat	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.02	0.02	58.82	58.82	0.00	0.00
San Jose St.	WAC	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01