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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Colorado

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:99.0
Current RPI:99
Expected SOS:86
Current SOS:86
Current Record:18-14
Expected Record:18-14
Current Conf Record:9-11
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:90
Expected OOC SOS:193



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1499.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Colorado.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Sacramento St. (293.0)BSkyH90-53W100%0.0
11-14Seattle (287.0)WACH67-55W100%0.0
11-17Louisiana Monroe (298.0)SBH89-70W100%0.0
11-21Notre Dame (23.0)ACCN83-89L0%0.0
11-22Texas (156.0)B12N54-68W100%0.0
11-27Wofford (190.0)SCH75-60W100%0.0
11-30Colorado St. (66.0)MWCH58-72L0%0.0
12-3Portland (233.0)WCCA63-76W100%0.0
12-7Xavier (37.0)BEH68-66W100%0.0
12-10BYU (65.0)WCCA79-71L0%0.0
12-19Air Force (250.0)MWCA68-75W100%0.0
12-22Eastern Washington (148.0)BSkyH76-68W100%0.0
1-1Utah (83.0)P12A76-60L0%0.0
1-5Arizona St. (125.0)P12A78-77L0%0.0
1-7Arizona (2.0)P12A82-73L0%0.0
1-12UCLA (16.0)P12H89-104L0%0.0
1-15USC (40.0)P12H68-71L0%0.0
1-18Washington (211.0)P12A85-83L0%0.0
1-21Washington St. (159.0)P12A91-89L0%0.0
1-26Oregon St. (280.0)P12H85-78W100%0.0
1-28Oregon (9.0)P12H74-65W100%0.0
2-2Stanford (100.0)P12A74-81W100%0.0
2-5California (53.0)P12A77-66L0%0.0
2-9Washington (211.0)P12H81-66W100%0.0
2-12Washington St. (159.0)P12H81-49W100%0.0
2-16Oregon St. (280.0)P12A52-60W100%0.0
2-18Oregon (9.0)P12A101-73L0%0.0
2-23Utah (83.0)P12H81-86L0%0.0
3-2Stanford (100.0)P12H91-72W100%0.0
3-4California (53.0)P12H54-46W100%0.0
3-8Washington St. (159.0)P12N73-63W100%0.0
3-9Arizona (2.0)P12N92-78L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Colorado's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Colorado's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Colorado.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ColoradoP1226.3026.3054.4154.412.322.32
Washington St.P125.355.3540.7440.74-0.99-0.99
CaliforniaP124.004.0064.5264.521.161.16
UtahP123.963.9659.2659.260.730.73
ArizonaP123.953.9587.5087.502.962.96
OregonP123.943.9487.1087.102.922.92
Oregon St.P123.893.8913.7913.79-2.82-2.82
StanfordP123.893.8946.4346.43-0.28-0.28
WashingtonP123.873.8727.5927.59-1.74-1.74
Arizona St.P122.462.4643.7543.75-0.31-0.31
USCP122.452.4571.8871.881.071.07
UCLAP122.452.4587.5087.501.841.84
Eastern WashingtonBSky1.721.7266.6766.670.570.57
SeattleWAC1.711.7138.4638.46-0.39-0.39
Sacramento St.BSky1.691.6939.2939.29-0.36-0.36
PortlandWCC1.681.6830.0030.00-0.67-0.67
Colorado St.MWC1.661.6664.5264.520.480.48
XavierBE1.641.6463.6463.640.450.45
BYUWCC1.641.6465.6265.620.510.51
Louisiana MonroeSB1.621.6223.3323.33-0.86-0.86
TexasB121.611.6134.3834.38-0.50-0.50
Air ForceMWC1.611.6133.3333.33-0.54-0.54
Notre DameACC1.591.5972.7372.730.720.72
WoffordSC1.561.5644.8344.83-0.16-0.16
MontanaBSky0.250.2550.0050.000.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.240.2442.8642.86-0.03-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.240.2446.6746.67-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
IdahoBSky0.210.2155.1755.170.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.200.2061.2961.290.050.05
San Jose St.MWC0.200.2042.8642.86-0.03-0.03
NevadaMWC0.200.2082.3582.350.130.13
Saint Mary'sWCC0.200.2087.5087.500.150.15
Fresno St.MWC0.200.2060.0060.000.040.04
WyomingMWC0.200.2053.3353.330.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.190.1956.2556.250.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.190.1996.9796.970.180.18
Weber St.BSky0.180.1856.6756.670.020.02
TCUB120.170.1754.5554.550.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.170.1740.6240.62-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.170.1772.7372.730.080.08
San DiegoWCC0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
UNLVMWC0.170.1734.3834.38-0.05-0.05
ButlerBE0.170.1774.1974.190.080.08
Northern ArizonaBSky0.150.1525.8125.81-0.07-0.07
Kansas St.B120.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
PacificWCC0.150.1531.2531.25-0.06-0.06
Boise St.MWC0.150.1562.0762.070.040.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.150.1548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
Southern UtahBSky0.130.1312.9012.90-0.10-0.10
New Mexico St.WAC0.130.1383.3383.330.090.09
UC DavisBW0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
Idaho St.BSky0.130.1313.3313.33-0.09-0.09
Portland St.BSky0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.130.1367.8667.860.050.05
Utah St.MWC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
PepperdineWCC0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
New MexicoMWC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
BaylorB120.120.1277.4277.420.060.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
ChattanoogaSC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
UC RiversideBW0.100.1022.2222.22-0.06-0.06
New OrleansSlnd0.100.1060.7160.710.020.02
Miami FLACC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
KansasB120.100.1087.5087.500.070.07
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1040.7440.74-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
VirginiaACC0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.080.0810.3410.34-0.06-0.06
North DakotaBSky0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
DenverSum0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0818.5218.52-0.05-0.05
SMUAmer0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
The CitadelSC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Texas St.SB0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
NorthwesternB100.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.070.0778.5778.570.040.04
Texas TechB120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
West VirginiaB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
MissouriSEC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.070.0791.1891.180.060.06
UMKCWAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
FurmanSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0561.5461.540.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
VMISC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
NebraskaB100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TulsaAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TroySB0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
MichiganB100.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
OklahomaB120.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
DukeACC0.050.0577.1477.140.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
IllinoisB100.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0232.0032.00-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Ohio St.B100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Saint LouisA100.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
ColgatePat0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
IowaB100.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
LehighPat0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.023.333.33-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0260.7160.710.000.00
PittsburghACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
SyracuseACC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01