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Through games of Nov 26, 2014.


Colorado

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:82.5
Current RPI:54
Expected SOS:73
Current SOS:83
Current Record:3-1
Expected Record:17-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:3-1
Expected OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC RPI:77
Expected OOC SOS:141



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-49.00.02%
23-514.50.23%
22-620.11.06%
21-728.03.07%
20-838.06.85%
19-949.911.54%
18-1063.015.53%
17-1177.718.12%
16-1293.517.04%
15-13110.012.45%
14-14127.27.91%
13-15144.23.90%
12-16162.41.62%
11-17180.00.47%
10-18207.30.15%
9-19228.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Colorado.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Drexel (223.8)CAAH65-48W100%0.0
11-17Auburn (179.6)SECH90-59W100%0.0
11-22Wyoming (87.2)MWCA56-33L0%0.0
11-25Air Force (197.6)MWCH68-53W100%0.0
11-30Lipscomb (220.4)ASunH0-090%15.4
12-3San Francisco (97.6)WCCH0-067%5.4
12-7Georgia (76.4)SECA0-039%-3.3
12-10Colorado St. (54.8)MWCH0-064%4.2
12-13Northern Colorado (203.7)BSkyH0-089%14.4
12-22DePaul (219.9)BEN0-083%11.7
1-2UCLA (60.2)P12H0-053%1.0
1-4USC (227.7)P12H0-090%15.4
1-7Utah (26.4)P12A0-021%-9.9
1-15Arizona (17.9)P12A0-022%-9.3
1-17Arizona St. (107.6)P12A0-042%-2.4
1-22Washington (109.6)P12H0-070%6.1
1-24Washington St. (213.0)P12H0-088%14.1
1-29USC (227.7)P12A0-075%8.2
1-31UCLA (60.2)P12A0-030%-6.2
2-7Utah (26.4)P12H0-041%-2.7
2-12California (48.7)P12H0-050%-0.1
2-15Stanford (34.8)P12H0-045%-1.5
2-18Oregon (72.3)P12A0-035%-4.8
2-21Oregon St. (210.6)P12A0-063%3.9
2-26Arizona (17.9)P12H0-043%-2.1
3-1Arizona St. (107.6)P12H0-065%4.8
3-5Washington (109.6)P12A0-047%-1.0
3-7Washington St. (213.0)P12A0-072%6.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Colorado's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Colorado's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Colorado.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ColoradoP1231.1526.2975.0057.5115.573.95
UtahP120.004.4275.0073.760.002.10
USCP121.254.3350.0029.580.00-1.77
ArizonaP120.004.30100.0076.250.002.26
Arizona St.P120.004.3060.0053.580.000.31
WashingtonP120.004.30100.0056.230.000.54
Washington St.P120.004.3033.3330.27-0.00-1.70
UCLAP120.004.2980.0063.790.001.18
Oregon St.P121.252.7550.0042.960.00-0.39
CaliforniaP120.002.7380.0070.920.001.14
StanfordP120.002.7280.0071.520.001.17
OregonP120.002.7060.0062.980.000.70
WyomingMWC12.501.95100.0068.4912.500.72
Colorado St.MWC0.001.95100.0069.420.000.76
Air ForceMWC12.501.8850.0047.220.00-0.10
AuburnSEC12.501.8875.0038.846.25-0.42
Northern ColoradoBSky1.561.850.0053.87-1.560.14
DePaulBE0.001.8566.6726.770.00-0.86
DrexelCAA12.501.8525.0038.04-6.25-0.44
GeorgiaSEC0.001.8560.0056.830.000.25
LipscombASun0.001.790.0047.12-0.00-0.10
San FranciscoWCC0.001.7950.0059.930.000.35
San Diego St.MWC0.000.3883.3384.530.000.26
UNLVMWC0.000.3775.0051.700.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.320.0019.26-0.00-0.20
GonzagaWCC0.000.28100.0088.520.000.21
New MexicoMWC0.000.2560.0055.640.000.03
NevadaMWC0.000.2225.0043.39-0.00-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.000.2260.0055.090.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.2180.0058.430.000.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.2150.0025.330.00-0.10
Fresno St.MWC0.000.190.0023.00-0.00-0.10
Montana St.BSky0.000.190.0020.63-0.00-0.11
Portland St.BSky0.000.19100.0056.970.000.03
MissouriSEC0.000.1840.0036.41-0.00-0.05
Boise St.MWC0.000.1680.0062.960.000.04
MontanaBSky0.000.1633.3351.01-0.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1680.0074.900.000.08
UTEPCUSA0.000.15100.0072.490.000.07
BYUWCC0.000.1550.0067.000.000.05
KentuckySEC0.000.15100.0089.070.000.12
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1575.0068.260.000.05
StetsonASun1.560.130.0030.90-1.56-0.05
UC DavisBW0.000.13100.0053.380.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.1333.3351.34-0.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.130.0020.69-0.00-0.07
VanderbiltSEC0.000.13100.0053.810.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.1375.0064.910.000.04
PacificWCC0.000.1333.3331.37-0.00-0.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1333.3339.69-0.00-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.120.0056.00-0.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.1275.0049.940.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.120.0024.69-0.00-0.06
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1225.0033.19-0.00-0.04
MississippiSEC0.000.1275.0052.920.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.1250.0037.010.00-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.000.1266.6755.570.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1080.0071.650.000.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1033.3330.11-0.00-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1050.0071.940.000.04
IdahoBSky0.000.1033.3348.27-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.100.0024.87-0.00-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.090.0035.63-0.00-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.000.0950.0065.760.000.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0950.0036.120.00-0.03
DenverSum0.000.0950.0060.810.000.02
DelawareCAA0.000.090.0019.74-0.00-0.06
TexasB120.000.09100.0080.270.000.06
ArmyPat2.080.09100.0069.412.080.04
PortlandWCC0.000.09100.0051.720.000.00
Seton HallBE0.000.09100.0064.150.000.03
Penn St.B100.000.0983.3348.410.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0950.0073.640.000.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.09100.0045.580.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0950.0051.520.000.00
XavierBE0.000.09100.0077.810.000.05
LSUSEC0.000.0960.0055.990.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.090.0018.95-0.00-0.05
Kansas St.B120.000.0950.0046.630.00-0.01
LehighPat0.000.0920.0042.40-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0933.3338.74-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.0960.0058.400.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0975.0066.610.000.03
UC IrvineBW0.000.0933.3367.52-0.000.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.070.0030.92-0.00-0.03
BelmontOVC0.000.0780.0076.610.000.04
JacksonvilleASun0.000.070.0025.58-0.00-0.03
North FloridaASun0.000.0740.0052.52-0.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0725.0039.50-0.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0766.6751.210.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0725.0031.71-0.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0750.0050.040.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0720.0050.03-0.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0750.0045.290.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.070.0016.41-0.00-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0725.0047.86-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC1.560.060.0018.42-1.56-0.04
MercerSC0.000.0633.3354.15-0.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0640.0053.46-0.000.00
ElonCAA0.000.0640.0039.53-0.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0660.0068.220.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0680.0046.930.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0680.0066.690.000.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0625.0044.95-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0680.0057.990.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0666.6739.850.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0666.6747.140.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0675.0056.120.000.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0061.120.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0633.3329.25-0.00-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.0625.0037.52-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0616.6731.72-0.00-0.02
Texas TechB120.000.0675.0045.520.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.060.0062.99-0.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0633.3346.13-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0071.480.000.03
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0060.970.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0061.350.000.01
KansasB120.000.0666.6759.280.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0625.0051.07-0.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.060.0031.85-0.00-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0066.690.000.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0071.830.000.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0633.3354.73-0.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0058.520.000.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0650.0032.470.00-0.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0077.100.000.03
Wichita St.MVC0.000.06100.0084.900.000.04
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0079.750.000.04
FloridaSEC0.000.0650.0064.920.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz1.250.0620.0034.26-0.75-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0044.110.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0633.3335.63-0.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0660.0066.190.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0640.0038.08-0.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0650.0065.840.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0620.0031.47-0.00-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.0620.0039.02-0.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0640.0057.50-0.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0666.6773.440.000.03
MarylandB100.000.06100.0071.860.000.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0625.0036.66-0.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0616.6726.44-0.00-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0675.0051.040.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0025.37-0.00-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0366.6753.550.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0360.0067.690.000.01
The CitadelSC2.080.030.0028.78-2.08-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0325.0052.85-0.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0375.0064.180.000.01
CornellIvy1.250.0342.8640.94-0.18-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0380.0079.380.000.02
La SalleA100.000.03100.0056.620.000.00
Miami FLACC1.250.03100.0079.801.250.02
Saint Joseph'sA101.250.0360.0039.490.25-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0366.6750.870.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0325.0049.12-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.000.0325.0024.98-0.00-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0375.0068.330.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0038.94-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0375.0069.280.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.03100.0049.260.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0371.4357.180.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0024.09-0.00-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0320.0031.23-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0064.230.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0015.65-0.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0325.0048.11-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0350.0047.220.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.03100.0061.400.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0340.0038.45-0.00-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0350.0055.700.000.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0333.3330.44-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0350.0065.300.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0035.41-0.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.030.0043.61-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0050.770.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0375.0069.010.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.64-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0325.0039.67-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0083.600.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0065.110.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.250.0325.0051.72-0.620.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0366.6749.610.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.000.030.0038.82-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0040.80-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0340.0060.24-0.000.01
TulsaAmer1.250.0360.0055.460.250.00
VCUA100.000.0380.0073.080.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0333.3353.30-0.000.00
WoffordSC0.000.0380.0077.430.000.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0033.69-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0320.0038.42-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0380.0068.140.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0086.460.000.02