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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Colorado

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:34.0
Current RPI:34
Expected SOS:20
Current SOS:20
Current Record:23-11
Expected Record:23-11
Current Conf Record:12-9
Expected Conf Record:12-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:21
Expected OOC SOS:50



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-1134.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Colorado.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Baylor (30.0)B12N72-60L0%0.0
11-10Tennessee Martin (332.0)OVCH91-65W100%0.0
11-13Wyoming (135.0)MWCH63-58W100%0.0
11-16Jackson St. (296.0)SWACH94-70W100%0.0
11-18Arkansas St. (180.0)SBH93-70W100%0.0
11-21UC Santa Barbara (107.0)BWH76-68W100%0.0
11-24Harvard (46.0)IvyH70-62W100%0.0
11-30Air Force (251.0)MWCA57-81W100%0.0
12-3Colorado St. (182.0)MWCA62-67W100%0.0
12-7Kansas (3.0)B12H75-72W100%0.0
12-13Elon (162.0)SCH80-63W100%0.0
12-21Oklahoma St. (45.0)B12N73-78L0%0.0
12-28Georgia (74.0)SECH84-70W100%0.0
1-2Oregon St. (100.0)P12H64-58W100%0.0
1-5Oregon (28.0)P12H100-91W100%0.0
1-8Washington St. (224.0)P12A70-71W100%0.0
1-12Washington (104.0)P12A71-54L0%0.0
1-16UCLA (14.0)P12H56-69L0%0.0
1-18USC (176.0)P12H83-62W100%0.0
1-23Arizona (2.0)P12A69-57L0%0.0
1-25Arizona St. (44.0)P12A72-51L0%0.0
2-1Utah (80.0)P12H79-75W100%0.0
2-5Washington St. (224.0)P12H68-63W100%0.0
2-9Washington (104.0)P12H91-65W100%0.0
2-13UCLA (14.0)P12A92-74L0%0.0
2-16USC (176.0)P12A74-83W100%0.0
2-19Arizona St. (44.0)P12H61-52W100%0.0
2-22Arizona (2.0)P12H61-88L0%0.0
3-1Utah (80.0)P12A75-64L0%0.0
3-5Stanford (41.0)P12A56-59W100%0.0
3-8California (63.0)P12A66-65L0%0.0
3-12USC (176.0)P12N59-56W100%0.0
3-13California (63.0)P12N56-59W100%0.0
3-14Arizona (2.0)P12N63-43L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Colorado's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Colorado's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Colorado.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ColoradoP1226.3526.3566.4366.438.668.66
ArizonaP125.135.1387.1087.103.813.81
USCP125.035.0335.7135.71-1.44-1.44
UtahP123.813.8164.2964.291.091.09
UCLAP123.753.7575.0075.001.881.88
CaliforniaP123.753.7560.0060.000.750.75
WashingtonP123.643.6453.3353.330.240.24
Arizona St.P123.633.6366.6766.671.211.21
Washington St.P123.613.6132.1432.14-1.29-1.29
StanfordP122.442.4465.6265.620.760.76
OregonP122.342.3474.1974.191.131.13
Oregon St.P122.302.3053.3353.330.150.15
WyomingMWC1.651.6555.1755.170.170.17
Air ForceMWC1.591.5937.0437.04-0.41-0.41
KansasB121.581.5875.0075.000.790.79
Oklahoma St.B121.581.5862.5062.500.400.40
Colorado St.MWC1.571.5748.2848.28-0.05-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC1.571.5736.6736.67-0.42-0.42
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.561.5670.3770.370.640.64
BaylorB121.561.5665.6265.620.490.49
Arkansas St.SB1.541.5458.6258.620.270.27
Tennessee MartinOVC1.541.5421.4321.43-0.88-0.88
ElonSC1.471.4757.1457.140.210.21
GeorgiaSEC1.471.4761.2961.290.330.33
HarvardIvy1.471.4789.2989.291.161.16
UNLVMWC0.310.3160.6160.610.070.07
Utah St.MWC0.270.2754.8454.840.030.03
Fresno St.MWC0.270.2748.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.270.2743.7543.75-0.03-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.260.2687.1087.100.190.19
Long Beach St.BW0.230.2343.3343.33-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.230.2324.1424.14-0.12-0.12
NevadaMWC0.220.2246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.210.2165.6265.620.070.07
Cal PolyBW0.190.1936.6736.67-0.05-0.05
Iowa St.B120.180.1878.7978.790.100.10
Boise St.MWC0.180.1859.3859.380.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.160.1620.6920.69-0.10-0.10
OklahomaB120.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
TexasB120.160.1669.7069.700.060.06
DukeACC0.160.1676.4776.470.080.08
San Jose St.MWC0.150.1517.2417.24-0.10-0.10
UC DavisBW0.150.1524.1424.14-0.08-0.08
LamarSlnd0.150.1510.7110.71-0.12-0.12
New MexicoMWC0.150.1581.8281.820.090.09
DenverSum0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.140.1422.5822.58-0.08-0.08
Idaho St.BSky0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
DaytonA100.140.1469.7069.700.050.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.130.1355.1755.170.010.01
Kansas St.B120.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
West VirginiaB120.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
DrexelCAA0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.120.1214.8114.81-0.08-0.08
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.120.1230.3030.30-0.05-0.05
Georgia St.SB0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Texas St.SB0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
HowardMEAC0.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
UTEPCUSA0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
BYUWCC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
VillanovaBE0.090.0987.5087.500.070.07
Wake ForestACC0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
CreightonBE0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0941.1841.18-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
MissouriSEC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
OaklandHorz0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.090.0975.7675.760.040.04
UC RiversideBW0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
HawaiiBW0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
SamfordSC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SC0.070.0719.2319.23-0.05-0.05
DavidsonSC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
SeattleWAC0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0734.6234.62-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
MississippiSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
MemphisAmer0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
KentuckySEC0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
SyracuseACC0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
Weber St.BSky0.070.0760.7160.710.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
VMIBSth0.050.0555.5655.560.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.050.0551.8551.850.000.00
CornellIvy0.050.053.703.70-0.05-0.05
DartmouthIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
PennIvy0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0570.3770.370.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.050.0551.8551.850.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0546.1546.15-0.00-0.00
IdahoWAC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
LipscombASun0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
NebraskaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
TowsonCAA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
LSUSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Miami FLACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.050.053.573.57-0.04-0.04
UMBCAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0594.1294.120.040.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.040.0442.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
BryantNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
FordhamA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0224.0024.00-0.01-0.01
UICHorz0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0221.2121.21-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
SMUAmer0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
AkronMAC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
George WashingtonA100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
TempleAmer0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
IonaMAAC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01