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Through games of Nov 21, 2014.


Colorado

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:47.7
Current RPI:68
Expected SOS:71
Current SOS:166
Current Record:2-0
Expected Record:19-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:2-0
Expected OOC Record:8-2
Expected OOC RPI:34
Expected OOC SOS:147



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-01.00.01%
27-13.50.02%
26-24.00.10%
25-37.10.38%
24-49.41.82%
23-513.74.00%
22-618.88.44%
21-725.812.83%
20-834.517.37%
19-945.518.00%
18-1058.015.02%
17-1172.110.78%
16-1289.06.43%
15-13108.43.14%
14-14124.71.06%
13-15144.70.39%
12-16169.30.18%
11-17178.00.01%
9-19235.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Colorado.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Drexel (256.6)CAAH65-48W100%0.0
11-17Auburn (151.6)SECH90-59W100%0.0
11-22Wyoming (135.4)MWCA0-065%4.5
11-25Air Force (198.7)MWCH0-090%15.4
11-30Lipscomb (247.5)ASunH0-095%20.0
12-3San Francisco (92.6)WCCH0-076%8.5
12-7Georgia (65.0)SECA0-045%-1.4
12-10Colorado St. (65.3)MWCH0-077%8.7
12-13Northern Colorado (252.5)BSkyH0-095%19.5
12-22DePaul (180.2)BEN0-081%10.7
1-2UCLA (55.7)P12H0-064%4.5
1-4USC (224.1)P12H0-094%18.5
1-7Utah (31.4)P12A0-031%-5.9
1-15Arizona (25.1)P12A0-033%-5.3
1-17Arizona St. (72.2)P12A0-047%-0.9
1-22Washington (98.0)P12H0-075%8.2
1-24Washington St. (220.6)P12H0-093%17.6
1-29USC (224.1)P12A0-083%11.3
1-31UCLA (55.7)P12A0-041%-2.7
2-7Utah (31.4)P12H0-054%1.3
2-12California (32.2)P12H0-054%1.2
2-15Stanford (36.8)P12H0-060%3.0
2-18Oregon (39.3)P12A0-037%-4.1
2-21Oregon St. (158.5)P12A0-064%4.3
2-26Arizona (25.1)P12H0-056%1.9
3-1Arizona St. (72.2)P12H0-070%6.3
3-5Washington (98.0)P12A0-053%1.0
3-7Washington St. (220.6)P12A0-081%10.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Colorado's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Colorado's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Colorado.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ColoradoP1232.2926.31100.0066.9032.298.89
UtahP120.004.4466.6771.340.001.89
USCP123.124.3450.0027.820.00-1.93
Arizona St.P120.004.31100.0059.640.000.83
UCLAP120.004.31100.0062.930.001.11
Washington St.P120.004.3133.3328.11-0.00-1.89
WashingtonP120.004.31100.0058.050.000.69
ArizonaP120.004.31100.0069.970.001.72
CaliforniaP120.002.7575.0074.150.001.33
Oregon St.P120.002.74100.0050.600.000.03
StanfordP120.002.74100.0069.300.001.06
OregonP120.002.71100.0070.950.001.14
Colorado St.MWC0.001.95100.0064.300.000.56
WyomingMWC0.001.94100.0056.900.000.27
Air ForceMWC0.001.8850.0046.690.00-0.12
DePaulBE0.001.85100.0038.480.00-0.43
Northern ColoradoBSky0.001.850.0049.17-0.00-0.03
AuburnSEC25.001.85100.0044.0825.00-0.22
DrexelCAA25.001.850.0035.59-25.00-0.53
GeorgiaSEC0.001.8566.6757.700.000.28
LipscombASun0.001.790.0042.91-0.00-0.25
San FranciscoWCC0.001.79100.0063.270.000.47
UNLVMWC0.000.3766.6746.160.00-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.320.0020.69-0.00-0.19
San Diego St.MWC0.000.32100.0082.150.000.20
GonzagaWCC0.000.28100.0086.950.000.21
New MexicoMWC0.000.2575.0062.010.000.06
Utah St.MWC0.000.22100.0064.330.000.06
NevadaMWC0.000.2250.0052.120.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.2233.3328.03-0.00-0.10
Portland St.BSky0.000.19100.0051.300.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.190.0024.76-0.00-0.10
MissouriSEC0.000.1966.6750.370.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.190.0032.99-0.00-0.06
Boise St.MWC0.000.16100.0065.850.000.05
MontanaBSky0.000.160.0049.81-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.16100.0061.420.000.04
BYUWCC0.000.16100.0069.310.000.06
UTEPCUSA0.000.16100.0069.630.000.06
AlabamaSEC0.000.15100.0055.900.000.02
KentuckySEC0.000.15100.0086.080.000.11
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1566.6764.990.000.05
StetsonASun0.000.130.0032.16-0.00-0.05
PacificWCC0.000.1350.0029.930.00-0.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1350.0047.150.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.000.13100.0043.140.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.130.0023.71-0.00-0.07
North DakotaBSky0.000.130.0043.21-0.00-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.1366.6748.270.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.13100.0048.390.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.130.0054.32-0.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.13100.0051.000.000.00
OklahomaB120.000.1350.0059.230.000.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.120.0038.57-0.00-0.03
MississippiSEC0.000.1266.6760.220.000.03
UC RiversideBW0.000.120.0027.23-0.00-0.06
MarquetteBE0.000.1250.0054.250.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.10100.0050.390.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.100.0027.11-0.00-0.04
DelawareCAA0.000.100.0033.61-0.00-0.03
IdahoBSky0.000.1050.0047.220.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.100.0028.50-0.00-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.100.0031.91-0.00-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.100.0037.20-0.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1033.3365.68-0.000.03
ArmyPat0.000.09100.0057.810.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0933.3363.09-0.000.02
TexasB120.000.09100.0084.130.000.06
DenverSum0.000.0950.0062.440.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.09100.0036.560.00-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0933.3344.98-0.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.090.0062.16-0.000.02
LSUSEC0.000.0966.6756.820.000.01
MichiganB100.000.09100.0066.870.000.03
Seton HallBE0.000.09100.0057.560.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0950.0055.220.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0950.0062.910.000.02
XavierBE0.000.09100.0076.430.000.05
Chicago St.WAC0.000.090.0027.18-0.00-0.04
DetroitHorz0.000.090.0055.45-0.000.01
LehighPat0.000.090.0035.69-0.00-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.070.0029.88-0.00-0.03
BelmontOVC0.000.0750.0072.160.000.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.07100.0071.730.000.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.070.0024.25-0.00-0.04
North FloridaASun0.000.070.0049.10-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0733.3338.27-0.00-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.07100.0050.220.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0725.0057.21-0.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0750.0040.300.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0766.6763.800.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.070.0032.47-0.00-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0766.6747.240.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0750.0035.570.00-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.07100.0069.720.000.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0733.3354.24-0.000.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0750.0046.900.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.07100.0070.600.000.03
Southern UtahBSky0.000.070.0024.22-0.00-0.03
TowsonCAA0.000.0766.6745.850.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0750.0040.180.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0750.0045.610.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.070.0054.47-0.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0625.0033.23-0.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0016.72-0.00-0.04
Texas TechB120.000.0650.0043.560.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0054.240.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.060.0028.13-0.00-0.03
SeattleWAC0.000.0633.3347.72-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0650.0033.930.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0633.3349.73-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.000.0650.0052.770.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0650.0038.240.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0666.6763.580.000.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.060.0062.15-0.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0074.210.000.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.060.0038.12-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0650.0041.690.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0054.180.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0055.810.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0666.6766.600.000.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0666.6766.420.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0064.920.000.02
KansasB120.000.0650.0060.200.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0633.3352.91-0.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz4.170.060.0033.64-4.17-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.060.0032.86-0.00-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.060.0035.31-0.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.060.0033.70-0.00-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0062.680.000.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0633.3349.18-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0052.280.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0044.000.00-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.06100.0029.380.00-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0650.0044.430.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0650.0066.020.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0067.360.000.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.06100.0084.100.000.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.060.0046.41-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.000.060.0036.43-0.00-0.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0650.0066.890.000.02
MarylandB100.000.06100.0063.680.000.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0027.72-0.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0366.6759.850.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0350.0054.170.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0375.0054.690.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0025.67-0.00-0.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0366.6766.940.000.01
La SalleA100.000.03100.0055.910.000.00
Miami FLACC3.120.03100.0073.203.120.02
Penn St.B100.000.0375.0045.210.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA103.120.0333.3333.43-1.04-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0350.0052.770.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.030.0027.74-0.00-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.030.0055.60-0.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.03100.0058.280.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.030.0058.17-0.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0015.85-0.00-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.03100.0057.620.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.03100.0053.870.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0333.3349.79-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0350.0055.680.000.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0350.0031.730.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0333.3344.93-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.03100.0075.400.000.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0031.68-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0333.3343.51-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.000.030.0028.82-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0034.26-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6777.370.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.03100.0052.690.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0065.630.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0333.3336.31-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0054.580.000.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0366.6755.230.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB4.170.030.0048.57-4.17-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.030.0048.03-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0048.22-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.03100.0045.530.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0333.3367.72-0.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.030.0036.84-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0045.55-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0038.27-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0333.3363.82-0.000.01
TroySB0.000.030.0046.30-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0366.6752.000.000.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0350.0056.600.000.00
WoffordSC0.000.0366.6774.980.000.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0040.22-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.030.0033.60-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0375.0070.210.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0081.110.000.02