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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Colorado

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:116.0
Current RPI:116
Expected SOS:48
Current SOS:48
Current Record:15-17
Expected Record:15-17
Current Conf Record:8-12
Expected Conf Record:8-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:135
Expected OOC SOS:111



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-17116.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Colorado.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Drexel (243.0)CAAH65-48W100%0.0
11-17Auburn (129.0)SECH90-59W100%0.0
11-22Wyoming (71.0)MWCA56-33L0%0.0
11-25Air Force (240.0)MWCH68-53W100%0.0
11-30Lipscomb (271.0)ASunH84-75W100%0.0
12-3San Francisco (181.0)WCCH72-55W100%0.0
12-7Georgia (38.0)SECA64-57L0%0.0
12-10Colorado St. (29.0)MWCH60-62L0%0.0
12-13Northern Colorado (245.0)BSkyH93-68W100%0.0
12-22DePaul (197.0)BEN82-68W100%0.0
12-23George Washington (84.0)A10N50-53L0%0.0
12-25Hawaii (152.0)BWA69-66L0%0.0
1-2UCLA (48.0)P12H62-56W100%0.0
1-4USC (207.0)P12H86-65W100%0.0
1-7Utah (20.0)P12A74-49L0%0.0
1-15Arizona (5.0)P12A68-54L0%0.0
1-17Arizona St. (102.0)P12A78-72L0%0.0
1-22Washington (126.0)P12H50-52L0%0.0
1-24Washington St. (169.0)P12H90-58W100%0.0
1-29USC (207.0)P12A94-98W100%0.0
1-31UCLA (48.0)P12A72-59L0%0.0
2-7Utah (20.0)P12H51-79L0%0.0
2-12California (95.0)P12H61-68L0%0.0
2-15Stanford (59.0)P12H64-58W100%0.0
2-18Oregon (27.0)P12A73-60L0%0.0
2-21Oregon St. (133.0)P12A72-58L0%0.0
2-26Arizona (5.0)P12H54-82L0%0.0
3-1Arizona St. (102.0)P12H87-81W100%0.0
3-5Washington (126.0)P12A47-64W100%0.0
3-7Washington St. (169.0)P12A96-91L0%0.0
3-11Oregon St. (133.0)P12N71-78W100%0.0
3-12Oregon (27.0)P12N93-85L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Colorado's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Colorado's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Colorado.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ColoradoP1226.2326.2343.1843.18-3.58-3.58
OregonP124.014.0170.9770.971.681.68
Oregon St.P123.953.9553.5753.570.280.28
USCP123.933.9340.0040.00-0.79-0.79
ArizonaP123.933.9390.6290.623.203.20
UtahP123.933.9372.4172.411.761.76
UCLAP123.913.9161.2961.290.880.88
Arizona St.P123.863.8653.3353.330.260.26
WashingtonP123.843.8451.7251.720.130.13
Washington St.P123.843.8441.3841.38-0.66-0.66
StanfordP122.472.4761.2961.290.560.56
CaliforniaP122.472.4753.1253.120.150.15
Colorado St.MWC1.691.6980.6580.651.041.04
WyomingMWC1.691.6970.9770.970.710.71
AuburnSEC1.661.6642.4242.42-0.25-0.25
DePaulBE1.661.6638.7138.71-0.38-0.38
Air ForceMWC1.641.6442.8642.86-0.23-0.23
DrexelCAA1.611.6139.2939.29-0.35-0.35
Northern ColoradoBSky1.611.6148.1548.15-0.06-0.06
GeorgiaSEC1.611.6164.5264.520.470.47
HawaiiBW1.591.5959.3859.380.300.30
George WashingtonA101.591.5962.5062.500.400.40
San FranciscoWCC1.591.5943.3343.33-0.21-0.21
LipscombASun1.561.5640.7440.74-0.29-0.29
San Diego St.MWC0.350.3575.7675.760.180.18
UNLVMWC0.300.3053.1253.120.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.250.250.000.00-0.25-0.25
GonzagaWCC0.240.2493.9493.940.210.21
New MexicoMWC0.230.2348.3948.39-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.220.2256.6756.670.030.03
Utah St.MWC0.200.2056.6756.670.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.200.2023.3323.33-0.11-0.11
Boise St.MWC0.180.1874.1974.190.090.09
Portland St.BSky0.180.1848.1548.15-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.180.1879.3179.310.100.10
NevadaMWC0.180.1824.1424.14-0.09-0.09
Fresno St.MWC0.170.1743.3343.33-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.170.1768.7568.750.060.06
Long Beach St.BW0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.150.150.000.00-0.15-0.15
Montana St.BSky0.150.1520.6920.69-0.09-0.09
PacificWCC0.150.1532.1432.14-0.05-0.05
BYUWCC0.150.1571.8871.880.070.07
UC RiversideBW0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.140.1425.8125.81-0.07-0.07
Cal St. FullertonBW0.140.1424.1424.14-0.07-0.07
Texas A&MSEC0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
KentuckySEC0.140.14100.00100.000.140.14
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.140.1422.5822.58-0.08-0.08
MontanaBSky0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
StetsonASun0.110.1121.4321.43-0.06-0.06
North DakotaBSky0.110.1121.4321.43-0.06-0.06
PortlandWCC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
RiceCUSA0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Penn St.B100.100.1052.9452.940.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
OklahomaB120.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
San DiegoWCC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.100.1087.1087.100.070.07
MarquetteBE0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.100.1040.7440.74-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
DetroitHorz0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.090.0974.2974.290.050.05
LSUSEC0.090.0968.7568.750.040.04
MichiganB100.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0865.5265.520.030.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0827.2727.27-0.04-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
IdahoBSky0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
DelawareCAA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
ArmyPat0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
CreightonBE0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
XavierBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.056.906.90-0.05-0.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0518.7518.75-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
La SalleA100.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0562.9662.960.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
SeattleWAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
TulaneAmer0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ColgatePat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0574.0774.070.020.02
MarylandB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
MercerSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
VermontAE0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0594.1294.120.040.04
OhioMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
George MasonA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
RichmondA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
CornellIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
DrakeMVC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.020.0281.2581.250.020.02
South DakotaSum0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.020.0229.6329.63-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.020.0281.2581.250.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
NebraskaB100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
SyracuseACC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
UMBCAE0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.020.0290.6290.620.020.02
VMISC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.020.0291.1891.180.020.02
ClemsonACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0252.9452.940.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
TulsaAmer0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00