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Through games of Feb 6, 2016.


Colorado

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:45.6
Current RPI:25
Expected SOS:45
Current SOS:33
Current Record:16-7
Expected Record:20-10
Current Conf Record:6-5
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:49
Expected OOC SOS:150



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-716.90.59%
22-821.64.37%
21-928.216.81%
20-1039.431.17%
19-1152.628.66%
18-1264.914.41%
17-1377.93.72%
16-1490.00.26%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Colorado.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Iowa St. (17.2)B12N68-62L0%0.0
11-17Auburn (158.9)SECA84-91W100%0.0
11-20Portland (241.6)WCCH85-63W100%0.0
11-22Nebraska Omaha (136.2)SumH87-82W100%0.0
11-25Air Force (232.6)MWCH81-70W100%0.0
11-29Northern Colorado (311.7)BSkyH82-52W100%0.0
12-6Colorado St. (181.1)MWCA77-88W100%0.0
12-12BYU (72.5)WCCH92-83W100%0.0
12-18Nicholls St. (330.8)SlndH85-68W100%0.0
12-19Hampton (201.8)MEACH95-53W100%0.0
12-22Penn St. (131.5)B10N71-70W100%0.0
12-23SMU (12.6)AmerN66-70L0%0.0
1-1California (41.7)P12A79-65L0%0.0
1-3Stanford (86.0)P12A55-56W100%0.0
1-8Utah (27.9)P12H54-56L0%0.0
1-13Oregon St. (58.2)P12H71-54W100%0.0
1-17Oregon (6.7)P12H91-87W100%0.0
1-20Washington (62.3)P12A95-83L0%0.0
1-23Washington St. (184.1)P12A70-75W100%0.0
1-27Stanford (86.0)P12H91-75W100%0.0
1-31California (41.7)P12H70-62W100%0.0
2-4Oregon (6.7)P12A76-56L0%0.0
2-6Oregon St. (58.2)P12A60-56L0%0.0
2-11Washington St. (184.1)P12H0-087%12.4
2-13Washington (62.3)P12H0-066%4.5
2-17USC (20.6)P12A0-027%-6.6
2-20UCLA (70.9)P12A0-042%-2.3
2-24Arizona (26.0)P12H0-038%-3.3
2-28Arizona St. (79.7)P12H0-067%4.8
3-5Utah (27.9)P12A0-032%-5.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Colorado's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Colorado's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Colorado.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ColoradoP1226.5426.2469.4764.2810.347.50
UtahP123.034.1571.4367.441.301.45
StanfordP124.894.0855.5650.190.540.02
CaliforniaP124.874.0766.6763.791.621.12
OregonP124.704.0685.0080.163.292.45
Oregon St.P124.754.0663.1656.921.250.56
WashingtonP122.274.0063.6460.650.620.85
Washington St.P122.274.0038.1033.91-0.54-1.29
UCLAP120.402.4556.5253.080.050.15
USCP120.402.4578.2673.070.221.13
ArizonaP120.602.4579.1778.860.351.41
Arizona St.P120.602.4554.1752.270.050.11
SMUAmer2.391.7990.0085.071.911.25
Colorado St.MWC2.321.7855.0052.220.230.08
BYUWCC2.271.7869.5771.900.890.78
PortlandWCC2.271.7541.6739.83-0.38-0.36
Nicholls St.Slnd2.281.7315.0018.55-1.59-1.09
Northern ColoradoBSky2.271.7330.0027.96-0.91-0.76
Air ForceMWC2.231.7247.6239.85-0.11-0.35
HamptonMEAC2.281.7260.0061.740.460.40
Nebraska OmahaSum2.231.7059.0958.400.400.28
AuburnSEC2.171.6742.8637.88-0.31-0.40
Iowa St.B122.171.6772.7369.070.990.64
Penn St.B102.171.6752.1748.290.09-0.06
GonzagaWCC0.190.3178.2676.870.100.16
New MexicoMWC0.250.2560.8762.990.050.07
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.290.2542.8650.39-0.040.00
UNLVMWC0.200.2550.0055.190.000.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.340.2285.7185.390.240.16
TexasB120.250.2269.5762.640.100.06
San Diego St.MWC0.300.2272.7372.030.140.10
Boise St.MWC0.240.2263.6462.520.070.06
Idaho St.BSky0.250.2045.0046.14-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.330.2039.1338.57-0.07-0.05
WyomingMWC0.290.2043.4842.51-0.04-0.03
NevadaMWC0.200.1755.0054.530.020.02
KansasB120.200.1781.8277.570.130.09
Fresno St.MWC0.150.1761.9059.650.040.03
Long Beach St.BW0.200.1745.4551.34-0.020.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.150.1410.0013.12-0.12-0.11
Sacramento St.BSky0.150.1442.1145.73-0.02-0.01
IdahoBSky0.100.1454.5554.930.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.190.1435.0032.28-0.06-0.05
Utah St.MWC0.150.1445.0046.77-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.200.1435.0035.99-0.06-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.190.1454.1755.090.020.01
PacificWCC0.130.1425.0028.89-0.07-0.06
PepperdineWCC0.180.1456.5257.280.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.040.1431.8229.14-0.02-0.06
Santa ClaraWCC0.130.1430.4331.18-0.05-0.05
TCUB120.150.1443.4837.22-0.02-0.04
DenverSum0.200.1254.1751.800.020.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.129.5213.53-0.04-0.09
IPFWSum0.100.1270.8368.570.040.04
MontanaBSky0.100.1257.8962.290.020.03
TulsaAmer0.160.1263.6459.960.040.02
ValparaisoHorz0.200.1281.8283.030.130.08
Weber St.BSky0.190.1265.0069.270.060.04
Portland St.BSky0.090.1231.5837.72-0.03-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.200.1125.0022.77-0.10-0.06
RiceCUSA0.200.1128.5729.71-0.08-0.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.1118.7526.45-0.06-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.190.1115.0022.35-0.14-0.06
Incarnate WordSlnd0.150.1156.2556.100.020.01
OklahomaB120.140.1186.3682.100.100.07
AlabamaSEC0.150.1159.0953.030.030.01
San FranciscoWCC0.130.1154.5550.110.010.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.200.1145.0049.37-0.02-0.00
BaylorB120.150.1172.7366.500.070.04
East CarolinaAmer0.150.1145.4542.00-0.01-0.02
SeattleWAC0.140.1147.6244.99-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.100.1159.0953.130.020.01
Montana St.BSky0.100.0940.9143.72-0.02-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.110.0952.1755.930.000.01
DePaulBE0.150.0934.7834.45-0.05-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0963.6462.150.030.02
UTEPCUSA0.100.0952.1751.930.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.100.0915.0015.36-0.07-0.06
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.150.0931.5831.81-0.05-0.03
MissouriSEC0.100.0834.7830.36-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0817.6529.25-0.03-0.04
HoustonAmer0.160.0872.7368.020.070.03
MemphisAmer0.100.0860.8760.800.020.02
OaklandHorz0.100.0868.0067.970.040.03
TempleAmer0.100.0863.6459.810.030.02
Kansas St.B120.100.0860.8758.450.020.01
CincinnatiAmer0.100.0870.8370.930.040.03
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0872.7376.350.020.04
MichiganB100.140.0869.5766.200.060.03
Oklahoma St.B120.100.0847.8344.37-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0873.9171.570.020.04
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0878.2678.040.030.05
IowaB100.090.0881.8280.120.060.05
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0879.1780.780.000.05
HowardMEAC0.000.0638.1040.73-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0620.0026.76-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0640.9149.26-0.01-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.0682.6181.140.060.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.110.0623.8126.56-0.06-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.110.0631.5831.77-0.04-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0652.3854.010.000.00
Green BayHorz0.110.0654.5556.010.010.01
IonaMAAC0.100.0659.0959.660.020.01
IUPUISum0.050.0640.0039.79-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0647.3749.97-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0639.1341.12-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.100.0638.1037.49-0.02-0.01
South DakotaSum0.090.0641.6741.24-0.02-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0677.2776.850.030.03
VillanovaBE0.110.0686.9686.370.080.04
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0627.7829.14-0.04-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.0642.8646.34-0.01-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0640.9140.64-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0621.0527.81-0.03-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0627.7834.49-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0615.0027.27-0.00-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0645.4554.10-0.000.00
Texas St.SB0.050.0638.8938.51-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0636.8441.46-0.02-0.01
MinnesotaB100.090.0626.0927.82-0.04-0.03
HawaiiBW0.100.0684.2181.680.070.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0616.6720.14-0.06-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0672.0070.500.040.02
UC DavisBW0.090.0640.0036.78-0.02-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.100.0641.6743.87-0.02-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0652.6350.230.000.00
Ohio St.B100.090.0658.3354.170.020.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0670.5975.550.000.03
Arkansas St.SB0.100.0642.8639.18-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0634.7840.92-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0672.7372.450.000.02
DukeACC0.050.0673.9170.060.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0661.9056.690.010.01
HarvardIvy0.090.0635.0038.53-0.03-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.0647.6252.67-0.000.00
Miami FLACC0.050.0680.9575.490.030.03
MississippiSEC0.050.0665.2259.020.020.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0640.0045.51-0.01-0.00
NavyPat0.100.0662.5062.440.020.01
PennIvy0.050.0638.8937.66-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0620.8320.12-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.050.0647.8346.87-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.050.0633.3332.33-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.100.0672.7371.610.040.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0656.5260.000.010.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0566.6766.540.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.100.0563.6459.380.030.01
XavierBE0.050.0591.3084.380.040.04
YaleIvy0.050.0573.6874.620.020.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.0530.0034.56-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0528.5728.55-0.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.090.0560.0057.950.020.01
IllinoisB100.050.0547.8344.55-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0583.3383.010.030.04
NebraskaB100.000.0554.1751.820.000.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0566.6763.430.020.01
RichmondA100.090.0554.5554.550.010.00
VirginiaACC0.090.0582.6178.050.060.03
West VirginiaB120.050.0582.6179.550.030.03
AmericanPat0.050.0330.4331.88-0.02-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0326.0929.20-0.02-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0331.8236.12-0.02-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0321.0523.59-0.03-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0330.4335.11-0.02-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0329.1733.14-0.02-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0325.0033.22-0.03-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0372.2274.710.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0350.0053.300.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.050.0371.4369.840.020.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0365.0063.440.020.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0337.5040.51-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0340.9143.55-0.01-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0325.0024.37-0.03-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0365.0066.790.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0345.8341.66-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.050.0324.0026.41-0.03-0.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0328.5732.71-0.02-0.01
ArmyPat0.050.0352.1753.360.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0369.5764.880.020.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0331.5831.96-0.02-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0365.2268.610.020.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0333.3332.99-0.02-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0328.0030.73-0.02-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0368.1866.670.020.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0375.0071.510.030.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0333.3331.30-0.02-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0322.7323.25-0.03-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.040.0336.8438.40-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.050.0331.5831.01-0.02-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0350.0051.170.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0360.0060.080.010.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0365.2266.080.020.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0340.0039.00-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.050.0365.2260.280.020.01
MercerSC0.050.0372.7370.750.020.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0371.4369.410.020.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0355.0053.160.010.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0386.3679.150.040.02
UABCUSA0.050.0382.6179.430.030.02
UCFAmer0.050.0352.3845.670.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0333.3334.94-0.02-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0320.8323.63-0.03-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0330.4326.49-0.02-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0312.5012.85-0.00-0.02
BucknellPat0.050.0354.5558.150.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.050.0359.0958.900.010.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0366.6767.680.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0386.3685.030.030.02
Chicago St.WAC0.050.034.357.73-0.04-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.0362.5059.780.000.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0313.6418.14-0.03-0.02
DuquesneA100.050.0363.6456.370.010.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0378.2674.360.030.01
IndianaB100.050.0379.1774.030.030.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0321.7423.40-0.00-0.01
LafayettePat0.000.0322.7324.04-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0357.8961.750.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0362.5056.260.000.00
MarylandB100.050.0387.5083.690.030.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.0382.6178.690.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0350.0049.100.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0375.0070.940.000.01
PurdueB100.050.0379.1776.550.030.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0350.0051.290.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0321.7420.35-0.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0317.3920.65-0.00-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0354.1749.290.00-0.00
VMISC0.050.0315.7917.42-0.03-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0343.4840.60-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.050.0360.8755.860.010.00