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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Colorado

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:82.0
Current RPI:82
Expected SOS:33
Current SOS:33
Current Record:17-15
Expected Record:17-15
Current Conf Record:9-11
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-1
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:87
Expected OOC SOS:102



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-1582.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Colorado.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Northern Colorado (110.0)BSkyH66-51W100%0.0
11-14Denver (224.0)SumH89-62W100%0.0
11-17Quinnipiac (277.0)MAACN70-69W100%0.0
11-18Drake (166.0)MVCN81-86W100%0.0
11-19Mercer (174.0)SCN79-70W100%0.0
11-26Air Force (253.0)MWCH81-69W100%0.0
12-2Colorado St. (234.0)MWCA72-63L0%0.0
12-6New Mexico (118.0)MWCH75-57W100%0.0
12-9Xavier (3.0)BEA96-69L0%0.0
12-12San Diego (143.0)WCCH59-69L0%0.0
12-15South Dakota St. (37.0)SumH112-103W100%0.0
12-22Iowa (157.0)B10N80-73L0%0.0
12-29Oregon St. (137.0)P12A76-57L0%0.0
12-31Oregon (72.0)P12A77-62L0%0.0
1-4Arizona St. (66.0)P12H90-81W100%0.0
1-6Arizona (13.0)P12H80-77W100%0.0
1-10USC (34.0)P12A70-58L0%0.0
1-13UCLA (36.0)P12A59-68W100%0.0
1-18Washington St. (179.0)P12H82-73W100%0.0
1-20Washington (71.0)P12H62-72L0%0.0
1-25Arizona (13.0)P12A80-71L0%0.0
1-27Arizona St. (66.0)P12A80-66L0%0.0
2-2Utah (59.0)P12H67-55W100%0.0
2-7California (216.0)P12H68-64W100%0.0
2-11Stanford (86.0)P12H64-56W100%0.0
2-15Washington St. (179.0)P12A73-69L0%0.0
2-17Washington (71.0)P12A82-59L0%0.0
2-21USC (34.0)P12H64-75L0%0.0
2-25UCLA (36.0)P12H80-76W100%0.0
3-3Utah (59.0)P12A64-54L0%0.0
3-7Arizona St. (66.0)P12N97-85W100%0.0
3-8Arizona (13.0)P12N83-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Colorado's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Colorado's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Colorado.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ColoradoP1226.3326.3350.8150.810.420.42
ArizonaP125.455.4580.6580.653.343.34
Arizona St.P125.345.3467.8667.861.911.91
UtahP123.923.9264.2964.291.121.12
USCP123.883.8865.6265.621.211.21
UCLAP123.853.8570.0070.001.541.54
WashingtonP123.793.7960.0060.000.760.76
Washington St.P123.783.7837.9337.93-0.91-0.91
OregonP122.562.5663.6463.640.700.70
StanfordP122.492.4956.2556.250.310.31
Oregon St.P122.482.4848.3948.39-0.08-0.08
CaliforniaP122.412.4126.6726.67-1.12-1.12
New MexicoMWC1.741.7456.2556.250.220.22
DenverSum1.691.6948.1548.15-0.06-0.06
Air ForceMWC1.691.6935.7135.71-0.48-0.48
Colorado St.MWC1.691.6930.0030.00-0.67-0.67
South Dakota St.Sum1.671.6782.7682.761.091.09
XavierBE1.641.6484.3884.381.131.13
IowaB101.611.6140.6240.62-0.30-0.30
DrakeMVC1.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky1.591.5963.3363.330.420.42
MercerSC1.561.5655.1755.170.160.16
QuinnipiacMAAC1.561.5637.5037.50-0.39-0.39
San DiegoWCC1.561.5655.1755.170.160.16
San Diego St.MWC0.330.3367.7467.740.120.12
UNLVMWC0.300.3060.6160.610.060.06
WyomingMWC0.280.2859.3859.380.050.05
South DakotaSum0.260.2673.3373.330.120.12
North Dakota St.Sum0.250.2541.3841.38-0.04-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.230.2324.1424.14-0.12-0.12
Utah St.MWC0.230.2348.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.220.2213.3313.33-0.16-0.16
San Jose St.MWC0.210.2110.3410.34-0.16-0.16
UC IrvineBW0.180.1848.4848.48-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.180.1841.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.180.1842.8642.86-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.170.1773.3373.330.080.08
Fresno St.MWC0.170.1763.3363.330.050.05
KansasB120.170.1779.4179.410.100.10
St. John'sBE0.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.170.1741.9441.94-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
UC DavisBW0.150.1566.6766.670.050.05
MontanaBSky0.150.1577.4277.420.080.08
New Mexico St.WAC0.140.1483.3383.330.100.10
Oral RobertsSum0.140.1428.5728.57-0.06-0.06
Western IllinoisSum0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
BYUWCC0.130.1370.5970.590.050.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.130.1384.8584.850.090.09
Kansas St.B120.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
SeattleWAC0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.120.1279.4179.410.070.07
ProvidenceBE0.120.1261.7661.760.030.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
SMUAmer0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Fort WayneSum0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
WoffordSC0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
NevadaMWC0.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
GonzagaWCC0.100.1088.2488.240.080.08
IdahoBSky0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
ButlerBE0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Portland St.BSky0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
CreightonBE0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
WisconsinB100.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.090.0955.8855.880.010.01
PurdueB100.090.0982.3582.350.060.06
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.088.008.00-0.06-0.06
PepperdineWCC0.080.0816.1316.13-0.05-0.05
North DakotaBSky0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
BradleyMVC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
Weber St.BSky0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
DrexelCAA0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
MinnesotaB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0788.2488.240.060.06
Virginia TechACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
MaristMAAC0.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Ohio St.B100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
RiderMAAC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
SienaMAAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
DePaulBE0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
OklahomaB120.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
UMBCAE0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
Texas St.SB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
FurmanSC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
HawaiiBW0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0512.5012.50-0.04-0.04
MissouriSEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
VMISC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.Amer0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
IUPUIHorz0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ValparaisoMVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.050.053.333.33-0.05-0.05
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
IllinoisB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MarylandB100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Penn St.B100.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
AkronMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0576.6776.670.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
NavyPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
UCFAmer0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Saint LouisA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
BaylorB120.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
BrownIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
George WashingtonA100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
HartfordAE0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
IonaMAAC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Iowa St.B120.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
MaineAE0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0239.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0271.4371.430.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
RutgersB100.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
UABCUSA0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
VermontAE0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0215.6215.62-0.02-0.02