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Through games of Dec 19, 2014.


Fairfield

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:247.9
Current RPI:220
Expected SOS:194
Current SOS:192
Current Record:4-5
Expected Record:12-18
Current Conf Record:2-0
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-7
Current OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:246
Expected OOC SOS:128



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-10116.30.03%
19-11131.80.08%
18-12143.90.28%
17-13160.31.02%
16-14177.22.82%
15-15196.07.12%
14-16214.012.01%
13-17232.517.17%
12-18249.918.72%
11-19266.917.39%
10-20282.412.20%
9-21295.47.05%
8-22305.92.83%
7-23313.81.05%
6-24323.10.21%
5-25328.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fairfield.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Central Connecticut (310.8)NECN63-71W100%0.0
11-15Duke (4.5)ACCA109-59L0%0.0
11-21Wofford (62.8)SCH36-54L0%0.0
11-22Sam Houston St. (105.2)SlndH60-74L0%0.0
11-23South Dakota (255.2)SumH80-72W100%0.0
11-29Northeastern (133.4)CAAA57-48L0%0.0
12-1Bucknell (257.4)PatH66-72L0%0.0
12-5Manhattan (286.4)MAACH67-54W100%0.0
12-7Quinnipiac (228.3)MAACA52-56W100%0.0
12-20Belmont (132.6)OVCH0-038%-3.6
12-22Albany (226.3)AEA0-024%-8.2
12-28Loyola MD (294.6)PatN0-065%4.6
1-2Siena (213.1)MAACH0-048%-0.6
1-5Rider (186.5)MAACH0-048%-0.5
1-11Siena (213.1)MAACA0-021%-9.3
1-13Iona (80.3)MAACA0-07%-17.0
1-16Marist (329.3)MAACH0-079%9.6
1-18Monmouth (176.5)MAACA0-017%-11.3
1-22Canisius (127.5)MAACH0-039%-3.1
1-25Marist (329.3)MAACA0-053%0.8
1-30Monmouth (176.5)MAACH0-041%-2.5
2-2Iona (80.3)MAACH0-024%-8.3
2-5Rider (186.5)MAACA0-022%-9.2
2-7Saint Peter's (222.8)MAACA0-020%-9.7
2-13Quinnipiac (228.3)MAACH0-051%0.3
2-15Manhattan (286.4)MAACA0-030%-6.2
2-19Niagara (281.4)MAACH0-070%6.0
2-21Saint Peter's (222.8)MAACH0-047%-1.0
2-27Canisius (127.5)MAACA0-016%-11.9
3-1Niagara (281.4)MAACA0-041%-2.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fairfield's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Fairfield's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Fairfield.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
FairfieldMAAC27.7026.4040.0037.98-5.54-6.35
SienaMAAC0.314.4233.3347.68-0.10-0.20
IonaMAAC0.314.3766.6772.000.101.92
MonmouthMAAC0.314.3744.4455.60-0.030.49
RiderMAAC0.314.3750.0052.310.000.20
MaristMAAC0.594.3710.0017.56-0.47-2.83
NiagaraMAAC0.004.3612.5028.18-0.00-1.90
QuinnipiacMAAC5.564.3650.0051.490.000.13
ManhattanMAAC5.864.3625.0038.05-2.93-1.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.004.3436.3646.28-0.00-0.32
CanisiusMAAC0.004.3355.5660.800.000.94
AlbanyAE0.591.8733.3347.82-0.20-0.08
BucknellPat5.561.8733.3334.11-1.85-0.59
WoffordSC6.161.8175.0074.933.080.90
Loyola MDPat0.001.7833.3327.31-0.00-0.81
Central ConnecticutNEC5.561.7725.0031.51-2.78-0.66
South DakotaSum6.211.7330.0040.14-2.48-0.34
NortheasternCAA5.861.7262.5056.481.470.22
Sam Houston St.Slnd6.121.7242.8672.60-0.870.78
DukeACC5.561.70100.0087.145.561.26
BelmontOVC0.001.6760.0061.960.000.40
HartfordAE0.620.3150.0050.810.000.00
LehighPat0.310.2837.5047.68-0.08-0.01
MassachusettsA100.620.2560.0055.280.120.03
Boston UniversityPat0.620.2533.3342.54-0.21-0.04
VermontAE0.310.2344.4457.69-0.030.04
PennIvy0.000.2237.5033.00-0.00-0.07
Holy CrossPat0.000.2057.1453.100.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.2055.5648.170.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.280.2077.7868.880.150.07
St. BonaventureA100.000.1775.0065.210.000.05
FordhamA100.000.1728.5728.06-0.00-0.07
RutgersB100.310.1660.0034.920.06-0.05
WagnerNEC0.000.1614.2933.57-0.00-0.05
Stony BrookAE0.000.1433.3355.14-0.000.01
PittsburghACC0.310.1466.6752.850.100.01
ColgatePat0.000.1420.0043.07-0.00-0.02
NavyPat0.310.1420.0021.61-0.19-0.08
ElonCAA0.280.1437.5047.90-0.07-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.1450.0038.520.00-0.03
TowsonCAA0.310.1366.6751.280.100.00
BinghamtonAE0.310.110.0011.87-0.31-0.09
BuffaloMAC0.000.1177.7870.500.000.05
MaineAE0.000.1111.1121.27-0.00-0.07
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.110.0015.18-0.00-0.08
UMBCAE0.310.1110.0020.97-0.25-0.07
AmericanPat0.000.1160.0064.750.000.03
LafayettePat0.000.1175.0070.210.000.05
VMISC0.000.1133.3338.93-0.00-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.620.1150.0038.230.00-0.03
George MasonA100.310.1125.0026.38-0.15-0.05
La SalleA100.310.1150.0049.930.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1118.1836.00-0.00-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.280.1137.5038.31-0.07-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1177.7869.590.000.04
DrexelCAA0.000.1125.0036.23-0.00-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1128.5741.46-0.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.1133.3340.96-0.00-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1122.2240.60-0.00-0.02
UNLVMWC0.600.0975.0049.970.30-0.00
DenverSum0.000.0945.4554.26-0.000.01
YaleIvy0.310.0972.7366.650.140.03
FurmanSC0.280.0822.2231.52-0.15-0.03
NJITind0.000.0836.3641.21-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0888.8964.830.000.03
StanfordP120.840.0875.0057.490.420.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0855.5640.440.00-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0850.0062.120.000.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0866.6758.330.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0890.0067.450.000.03
William & MaryCAA0.310.0857.1456.650.040.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0866.6742.760.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.310.0818.1831.71-0.20-0.03
BrownIvy0.000.0840.0033.52-0.00-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.0877.7851.830.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0877.7878.860.000.05
MarylandB100.310.0890.9167.370.250.03
Michigan St.B100.280.0872.7373.190.130.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0850.0040.680.00-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0616.6719.31-0.00-0.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0017.19-0.00-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0620.0039.24-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0614.2933.59-0.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0666.6777.530.000.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0625.0028.59-0.00-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0650.0068.680.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0655.5637.870.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.000.0622.2238.12-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0616.6737.98-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0644.4449.69-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0660.0057.640.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.0680.0072.370.000.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0633.3345.98-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0640.0049.77-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.000.0687.5076.810.000.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0671.4364.140.000.02
IPFWSum0.000.0657.1456.380.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0620.0027.11-0.00-0.03
MercerSC0.000.0644.4444.53-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0644.4455.60-0.000.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0657.1464.570.000.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0655.5656.260.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0644.4445.51-0.00-0.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0677.7855.570.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0655.5659.230.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0633.3331.23-0.00-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0666.6755.450.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0616.6730.30-0.00-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0655.5654.330.000.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0622.2242.00-0.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0622.2237.12-0.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0620.0041.08-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0637.5031.81-0.00-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.280.0662.5064.770.070.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.310.0681.8264.670.200.02
PresbyterianBSth0.590.060.008.14-0.59-0.05
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0630.0029.59-0.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0666.6754.760.000.01
ToledoMAC0.280.0560.0058.890.060.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0577.7871.770.000.02
BryantNEC0.000.0528.5746.99-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0533.3349.72-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0550.0045.370.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.280.0550.0057.700.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.050.007.43-0.00-0.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0540.0046.66-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0533.3333.03-0.00-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0570.0060.840.000.01
KansasB120.000.0588.8969.210.000.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0533.3344.60-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0554.5559.120.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0570.0072.100.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0542.8636.96-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0590.9172.430.000.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0530.0039.58-0.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0550.0058.380.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0590.0067.320.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.0570.0071.300.000.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0550.0053.800.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.350.0360.0075.470.070.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0375.0074.680.000.02
LSUSEC0.350.0380.0064.030.210.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0325.0048.53-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0320.0046.54-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0018.32-0.00-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0036.84-0.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.030.0039.69-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0320.0045.49-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.350.0377.7865.880.190.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.350.0333.3341.24-0.12-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0322.2230.55-0.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0333.3339.29-0.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0377.7871.170.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0350.0047.740.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0355.5661.910.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0342.8637.74-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0023.36-0.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0344.4446.81-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0362.5067.130.000.01
VCUA100.000.0370.0071.450.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0355.5649.770.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.250.039.0929.87-0.21-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.250.0320.0027.89-0.15-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.310.0342.8649.88-0.04-0.00
CreightonBE0.250.0375.0051.760.130.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0333.3334.61-0.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0325.0051.83-0.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.250.0322.2228.76-0.14-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0372.7353.500.000.00
Texas TechB120.000.0390.0055.490.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.250.0333.3340.82-0.08-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.250.0345.4543.81-0.02-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.280.0338.4644.31-0.06-0.00
MichiganB100.280.0355.5642.460.03-0.00
Penn St.B100.280.0390.9153.570.230.00
VillanovaBE0.280.03100.0081.870.280.02
Cal PolyBW0.310.0342.8638.86-0.04-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0044.120.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.000.0344.4448.82-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.310.0337.5038.43-0.08-0.01
HarvardIvy0.310.0385.7172.890.220.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0085.970.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0381.8266.320.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0355.5657.270.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0362.5057.080.000.00
TempleAmer0.280.0363.6455.560.080.00
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0085.760.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0355.5638.620.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.310.0362.5055.010.080.00
WisconsinB100.280.0390.9188.540.230.02