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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Fairfield

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:164.8
Current RPI:186
Expected SOS:230
Current SOS:302
Current Record:5-3
Expected Record:16-13
Current Conf Record:1-1
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-4
Current OOC Record:4-2
Expected OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC RPI:161
Expected OOC SOS:264



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-558.00.02%
23-662.00.06%
22-774.20.47%
21-887.11.50%
20-9100.63.97%
19-10115.68.50%
18-11131.912.67%
17-12149.016.94%
16-13167.018.36%
15-14185.815.97%
14-15204.511.32%
13-16223.86.33%
12-17241.92.59%
11-18259.90.92%
10-19275.00.33%
9-20291.20.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fairfield.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Sacred Heart (310.2)NECH85-63W100%0.0
11-15Dartmouth (319.6)IvyA62-79W100%0.0
11-19Wagner (225.9)NECA64-70W100%0.0
11-23Loyola MD (202.1)PatA81-66L0%0.0
11-26Army (190.1)PatH75-74W100%0.0
12-1Rider (198.1)MAACA67-76W100%0.0
12-3Siena (144.9)MAACA80-73L0%0.0
12-6Bucknell (94.2)PatH64-75L0%0.0
12-18North Carolina St. (110.5)ACCA0-020%-10.3
12-21Boston College (233.5)ACCN0-054%1.2
12-30Penn (143.8)IvyA0-029%-6.5
1-2Iona (105.1)MAACH0-048%-0.7
1-5Manhattan (261.3)MAACA0-059%2.6
1-10Canisius (198.8)MAACH0-068%5.6
1-15Siena (144.9)MAACH0-056%1.7
1-17Saint Peter's (191.1)MAACH0-063%3.9
1-20Iona (105.1)MAACA0-028%-7.0
1-22Monmouth (66.9)MAACA0-021%-9.7
1-28Marist (246.8)MAACH0-080%10.1
1-31Manhattan (261.3)MAACH0-077%8.9
2-2Niagara (266.5)MAACH0-075%7.9
2-6Quinnipiac (254.3)MAACH0-076%8.4
2-9Marist (246.8)MAACA0-062%3.8
2-13Rider (198.1)MAACH0-066%4.9
2-17Quinnipiac (254.3)MAACA0-057%2.1
2-19Saint Peter's (191.1)MAACA0-042%-2.3
2-21Monmouth (66.9)MAACH0-039%-3.5
2-24Canisius (198.8)MAACA0-048%-0.7
2-26Niagara (266.5)MAACA0-056%1.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fairfield's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Fairfield's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Fairfield.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
FairfieldMAAC28.3126.3967.5057.759.914.09
MonmouthMAAC0.454.5277.7872.350.252.02
RiderMAAC7.044.5266.6753.122.350.28
MaristMAAC0.524.4944.4435.00-0.06-1.35
ManhattanMAAC0.314.4822.2232.00-0.17-1.61
SienaMAAC6.704.4825.0048.52-3.35-0.13
CanisiusMAAC0.004.4637.5044.58-0.00-0.48
IonaMAAC0.004.4657.1464.700.001.31
NiagaraMAAC0.004.4625.0035.80-0.00-1.27
QuinnipiacMAAC0.004.4528.5737.81-0.00-1.09
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.004.4557.1451.100.000.10
BucknellPat6.251.9666.6769.552.080.76
ArmyPat6.251.9050.0052.080.000.08
WagnerNEC6.701.8933.3354.68-2.230.18
DartmouthIvy6.251.870.0021.52-6.25-1.07
Loyola MDPat6.251.8433.3343.85-2.08-0.23
Sacred HeartNEC6.251.8250.0039.420.00-0.38
Boston CollegeACC0.521.8157.1429.220.07-0.75
North Carolina St.ACC0.001.8175.0050.000.00-0.00
PennIvy0.001.7933.3356.11-0.000.22
Holy CrossPat0.000.3737.5047.44-0.00-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.450.3512.5026.05-0.33-0.17
Boston UniversityPat0.000.3242.8655.07-0.000.03
BrownIvy0.000.3050.0043.770.00-0.04
LafayettePat0.000.2942.8635.40-0.00-0.09
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.450.2616.6739.99-0.30-0.05
DrexelCAA0.000.2650.0041.460.00-0.04
HartfordAE0.790.2622.2226.44-0.44-0.12
CornellIvy0.350.2428.5730.43-0.15-0.09
LIU BrooklynNEC0.450.2462.5052.400.110.01
ColumbiaIvy0.450.2142.8643.78-0.06-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.2120.0060.00-0.000.04
NavyPat0.000.2133.3338.56-0.00-0.05
AmericanPat0.450.2112.5028.64-0.33-0.09
VermontAE0.000.2062.5071.400.000.09
St. BonaventureA100.350.2075.0070.350.170.08
FordhamA100.790.2050.0041.640.00-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.310.1830.0045.49-0.12-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.450.1811.1149.12-0.35-0.00
ColgatePat0.000.1812.5030.11-0.00-0.07
LehighPat0.000.1837.5061.81-0.000.04
Notre DameACC0.450.17100.0076.970.450.09
AlbanyAE0.350.1742.8660.66-0.050.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.1788.8967.470.000.06
HarvardIvy0.000.1633.3349.39-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.000.1642.8663.63-0.000.04
BryantNEC0.000.1522.2246.51-0.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.1528.5727.38-0.00-0.07
UMass LowellAE0.790.1520.0035.15-0.48-0.04
HofstraCAA0.350.1455.5643.870.04-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.1487.5081.910.000.09
SyracuseACC0.000.1462.5062.080.000.03
Wake ForestACC0.310.1477.7855.180.170.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1233.3340.37-0.00-0.02
Miami FLACC0.000.1277.7866.740.000.04
TowsonCAA0.000.1142.8653.80-0.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.1133.3352.03-0.000.00
DelawareCAA0.000.1150.0041.700.00-0.02
DukeACC0.000.1190.0080.060.000.07
NevadaMWC0.000.1177.7871.770.000.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.660.110.0036.38-0.66-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1137.5038.08-0.00-0.03
MaineAE0.000.0914.2923.40-0.00-0.05
MassachusettsA100.450.0971.4358.170.190.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0925.0041.19-0.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.520.0966.6770.400.170.04
TempleAmer0.000.0975.0064.820.000.03
DuquesneA100.450.0940.0039.19-0.09-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0857.1436.370.00-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0885.7169.920.000.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.0885.7162.500.000.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.0650.0042.750.00-0.01
La SalleA100.310.0657.1456.540.040.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0677.7859.940.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0642.8645.34-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.450.06100.0076.540.450.03
Stony BrookAE0.450.0637.5043.19-0.11-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0662.5054.660.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0038.78-0.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.000.0611.1132.47-0.00-0.02
MarylandB100.000.0687.5059.030.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0092.200.000.05
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0642.8650.98-0.000.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0675.0054.480.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.350.060.0023.90-0.35-0.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0671.4354.560.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0628.5731.07-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0021.30-0.00-0.03
DrakeMVC0.000.060.0020.21-0.00-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0650.0050.980.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0657.1471.170.000.02
George WashingtonA100.350.0655.5642.150.04-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0642.8658.24-0.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.450.0614.2942.77-0.32-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0662.5060.090.000.01
KansasB120.350.0688.8977.470.270.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0625.0030.02-0.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0657.1454.200.000.00
KentuckySEC0.000.0687.5082.220.000.04
LouisvilleACC0.000.0687.5075.690.000.03
MemphisAmer0.000.0675.0056.270.000.01
NJITASun0.000.0644.4451.58-0.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0020.63-0.00-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.0633.3331.35-0.00-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.660.0616.6740.32-0.44-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0683.3371.500.000.02
PacificWCC0.000.0642.8645.98-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0675.0048.980.00-0.00
RichmondA100.310.0650.0048.500.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0687.5050.250.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.06100.0078.180.000.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0026.22-0.00-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.450.0657.1433.200.06-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0675.0055.480.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0033.71-0.00-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.350.0662.5071.850.090.02
VirginiaACC0.000.0688.8978.430.000.03
Weber St.BSky0.000.0616.6749.78-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0685.7183.250.000.04
WinthropBSth0.000.0650.0071.340.000.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0350.0064.910.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.450.0342.8644.90-0.06-0.00
George MasonA100.000.0362.5046.490.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.520.0320.0021.92-0.31-0.02
New HampshireAE0.000.0362.5062.120.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.520.0362.5066.500.130.01
UCFAmer0.000.0385.7175.800.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0084.740.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0357.1448.110.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.450.0375.0066.120.220.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.450.0312.5030.51-0.33-0.01
OregonP120.450.0375.0072.800.220.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0316.6730.09-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.350.0377.7870.290.190.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0385.7157.280.000.00
ButlerBE0.310.03100.0074.830.310.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0342.8643.55-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0366.6751.140.000.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0388.8956.710.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0371.4358.830.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.54-0.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0017.92-0.00-0.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0325.0048.70-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0342.8637.05-0.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.350.0333.3332.79-0.12-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.310.0355.5646.770.03-0.00