Fairfield

Conference:	MAAC
Expected RPI:	138.4
Current RPI:	151
Expected SOS:	146
Current SOS:	152
Current Record:	12-10
Expected Record:	16-13
Current Conf Record:	7-4
Expected Conf Record:	10-7
Probability of Auto Bid:	10.32%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-1
Current OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC RPI:	135
Expected OOC SOS:	87

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
19-10	94.4	0.52%
18-11	106.7	5.80%
17-12	119.5	19.48%
16-13	133.6	32.80%
15-14	149.5	28.52%
14-15	167.8	10.98%
13-16	186.1	1.78%
12-17	201.1	0.11%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fairfield.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Quinnipiac (175.1)	NEC	N	60-72	W	100%	0.0
11-14	Providence (146.8)	BE	H	72-80	L	0%	0.0
11-17	Minnesota (68.5)	B10	A	67-57	L	0%	0.0
11-20	Holy Cross (226.1)	Pat	H	73-52	W	100%	0.0
11-24	Arizona St. (241.2)	P12	N	55-44	W	100%	0.0
11-25	Dayton (77.1)	A10	N	49-56	L	0%	0.0
11-27	Indiana St. (133.0)	MVC	N	72-66	L	0%	0.0
12-2	Niagara (208.7)	MAAC	A	75-79	W	100%	0.0
12-4	Canisius (322.0)	MAAC	A	59-68	W	100%	0.0
12-9	Old Dominion (126.1)	CAA	N	59-51	W	100%	0.0
12-11	New Hampshire (315.8)	AE	H	58-52	W	100%	0.0
12-22	Connecticut (27.1)	BE	A	79-71	L	0%	0.0
12-28	Drexel (79.2)	CAA	A	77-69	L	0%	0.0
1-1	Canisius (322.0)	MAAC	H	72-54	W	100%	0.0
1-6	Siena (226.0)	MAAC	A	73-60	L	0%	0.0
1-8	Manhattan (115.3)	MAAC	A	53-51	L	0%	0.0
1-13	Loyola MD (83.9)	MAAC	H	63-66	L	0%	0.0
1-16	Rider (213.8)	MAAC	H	61-52	W	100%	0.0
1-19	St. Peter's (280.4)	MAAC	A	63-75	W	100%	0.0
1-27	Iona (46.0)	MAAC	H	62-71	L	0%	0.0
1-29	Marist (276.6)	MAAC	H	81-53	W	100%	0.0
2-3	Niagara (208.7)	MAAC	H	77-69	W	100%	0.0
2-5	Siena (226.0)	MAAC	H	0-0		83%	10.2
2-9	Manhattan (115.3)	MAAC	H	0-0		56%	1.6
2-12	Loyola MD (83.9)	MAAC	A	0-0		36%	-3.9
2-15	St. Peter's (280.4)	MAAC	H	0-0		91%	14.6
2-20	Wisconsin Milwaukee (127.3)	Horz	A	0-0		33%	-4.9
2-24	Iona (46.0)	MAAC	A	0-0		16%	-10.8
2-26	Rider (213.8)	MAAC	A	0-0		61%	3.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fairfield's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Fairfield's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Fairfield.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Fairfield	MAAC	26.28	26.30	54.00	54.81	2.10	2.53
Niagara	MAAC	5.18	4.38	40.91	44.40	-0.94	-0.49
Rider	MAAC	2.91	4.35	39.13	39.82	-0.63	-0.88
Loyola MD	MAAC	3.06	4.34	76.19	72.82	1.60	1.98
St. Peter's	MAAC	3.01	4.34	22.73	26.02	-1.64	-2.08
Manhattan	MAAC	3.00	4.32	66.67	68.86	1.00	1.63
Iona	MAAC	3.05	4.31	78.26	79.26	1.72	2.52
Canisius	MAAC	5.13	4.31	19.05	21.27	-3.17	-2.48
Siena	MAAC	2.85	4.31	42.86	44.57	-0.41	-0.47
Marist	MAAC	3.01	2.68	36.36	34.62	-0.82	-0.82
New Hampshire	AE	2.47	1.87	36.84	40.06	-0.65	-0.37
Drexel	CAA	2.41	1.86	78.26	77.35	1.36	1.02
Minnesota	B10	2.42	1.84	68.18	60.02	0.88	0.37
Providence	BE	2.38	1.82	54.55	48.61	0.22	-0.05
Holy Cross	Pat	2.43	1.81	42.86	43.61	-0.35	-0.23
Connecticut	BE	2.32	1.78	66.67	62.75	0.77	0.45
Quinnipiac	NEC	2.37	1.78	59.09	59.19	0.43	0.33
Old Dominion	CAA	2.27	1.75	62.50	60.23	0.57	0.36
Dayton	A10	2.32	1.75	59.09	59.62	0.42	0.34
Indiana St.	MVC	2.32	1.75	54.55	52.59	0.21	0.09
Arizona St.	P12	2.27	1.72	31.82	32.52	-0.83	-0.60
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.00	1.72	56.52	57.38	0.00	0.25
Vermont	AE	0.36	0.32	60.00	62.49	0.07	0.08
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.25	0.29	13.64	16.35	-0.18	-0.20
Hartford	AE	0.36	0.27	17.39	20.97	-0.23	-0.16
Binghamton	AE	0.30	0.27	0.00	4.02	-0.30	-0.24
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.35	0.26	60.00	59.06	0.07	0.05
Hofstra	CAA	0.19	0.26	32.00	35.39	-0.07	-0.08
James Madison	CAA	0.24	0.23	40.00	40.18	-0.05	-0.04
Long Island	NEC	0.19	0.20	70.83	71.05	0.08	0.09
Buffalo	MAC	0.29	0.20	68.42	66.45	0.11	0.07
Towson	CAA	0.23	0.20	4.00	5.26	-0.21	-0.18
Albany	AE	0.11	0.18	60.00	60.42	0.02	0.04
Bucknell	Pat	0.20	0.18	73.91	75.00	0.10	0.09
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.20	0.18	26.09	28.60	-0.10	-0.08
Robert Morris	NEC	0.15	0.17	68.00	70.03	0.05	0.07
Seton Hall	BE	0.25	0.17	65.22	63.74	0.08	0.05
William & Mary	CAA	0.14	0.17	12.50	13.44	-0.11	-0.12
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.14	0.17	39.13	36.10	-0.03	-0.05
Syracuse	BE	0.14	0.17	95.83	92.01	0.13	0.14
Maine	AE	0.16	0.15	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Boston University	AE	0.11	0.15	48.00	51.88	-0.00	0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.21	0.15	30.43	29.50	-0.08	-0.06
Navy	Pat	0.15	0.15	9.52	13.19	-0.12	-0.11
Lehigh	Pat	0.20	0.15	73.91	74.91	0.10	0.07
Columbia	Ivy	0.20	0.14	55.00	54.80	0.02	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.19	0.14	62.50	61.50	0.05	0.03
Fordham	A10	0.10	0.14	40.91	34.50	-0.02	-0.04
Princeton	Ivy	0.15	0.14	47.37	52.87	-0.01	0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.19	0.14	21.74	22.76	-0.11	-0.08
DePaul	BE	0.10	0.14	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.02
South Florida	BE	0.20	0.14	54.55	48.60	0.02	-0.00
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.14	0.14	54.55	56.84	0.01	0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.18	0.14	76.00	72.50	0.10	0.06
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.21	0.12	44.00	45.89	-0.02	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.10	0.12	66.67	68.05	0.03	0.04
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.10	0.12	19.05	21.29	-0.06	-0.07
South Dakota	Sum	0.20	0.12	26.32	28.83	-0.09	-0.05
Massachusetts	A10	0.10	0.12	73.91	68.58	0.05	0.04
Kentucky	SEC	0.15	0.12	95.83	92.57	0.13	0.10
Wake Forest	ACC	0.15	0.12	47.83	43.66	-0.01	-0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.15	0.12	27.27	23.80	-0.07	-0.06
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.09	0.12	45.45	45.70	-0.01	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.15	0.12	8.70	12.13	-0.12	-0.09
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.14	0.11	62.50	62.49	0.04	0.03
Richmond	A10	0.09	0.11	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.19	0.11	47.83	48.56	-0.01	-0.00
Pittsburgh	BE	0.10	0.11	60.87	58.16	0.02	0.02
American	Pat	0.10	0.09	65.22	63.79	0.03	0.03
Army	Pat	0.10	0.09	40.91	41.72	-0.02	-0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.16	0.09	30.43	26.44	-0.06	-0.04
Butler	Horz	0.00	0.09	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.09	35.00	39.38	-0.01	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.10	0.09	24.00	24.86	-0.05	-0.04
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.00	0.09	81.82	80.43	0.00	0.05
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.10	0.09	42.11	49.81	-0.02	-0.00
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.09	34.78	32.08	-0.02	-0.03
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.09	30.00	30.06	-0.02	-0.04
Bryant	NEC	0.15	0.09	8.33	10.86	-0.12	-0.07
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.09	54.17	57.20	0.00	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.09	40.91	42.96	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.09	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.04
Nevada	WAC	0.05	0.09	80.95	76.42	0.03	0.05
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.09	76.19	72.91	0.03	0.04
Monmouth	NEC	0.10	0.09	28.00	28.91	-0.04	-0.04
Wisconsin	B10	0.00	0.09	75.00	73.97	0.00	0.04
Delaware	CAA	0.14	0.09	47.83	50.65	-0.01	0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.09	0.09	66.67	69.69	0.03	0.03
Notre Dame	BE	0.10	0.09	65.22	62.65	0.03	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.10	0.09	65.22	60.58	0.03	0.02
Southern California	P12	0.10	0.09	25.00	25.13	-0.05	-0.04
Fresno St.	WAC	0.09	0.08	39.13	44.52	-0.02	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.10	0.08	80.95	77.38	0.06	0.05
La Salle	A10	0.10	0.08	70.83	68.82	0.04	0.03
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.09	0.08	80.00	78.06	0.06	0.05
Howard	MEAC	0.09	0.08	18.18	22.22	-0.06	-0.05
Missouri	B12	0.14	0.08	91.30	87.18	0.12	0.06
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.14	0.08	73.91	75.49	0.07	0.04
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.11	0.06	14.29	17.17	-0.08	-0.04
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.06	43.48	42.95	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.10	0.06	72.22	63.19	0.04	0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.10	0.06	90.48	87.91	0.08	0.05
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.06	87.50	85.41	0.04	0.04
Detroit	Horz	0.00	0.06	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
Drake	MVC	0.10	0.06	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.10	0.06	45.45	44.02	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.06	36.36	39.72	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.06	39.13	42.12	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.06	62.50	62.06	0.01	0.01
Longwood	ind	0.10	0.06	30.00	27.84	-0.04	-0.03
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.10	0.06	8.70	8.99	-0.08	-0.05
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.10	0.06	34.78	35.20	-0.03	-0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.10	0.06	82.61	81.44	0.06	0.04
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.06	34.78	32.06	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.06	56.52	55.95	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.00	0.06	65.22	63.61	0.00	0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.10	0.06	82.61	80.42	0.06	0.04
Wright St.	Horz	0.00	0.06	41.67	40.61	-0.00	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.00	0.06	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.10	0.06	82.61	84.57	0.07	0.04
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.06	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.02
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.06	66.67	62.65	0.02	0.01
Denver	SB	0.05	0.06	70.83	72.23	0.02	0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.06	59.09	56.35	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.06	71.43	69.05	0.02	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.06	59.09	59.72	0.01	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.06	59.09	50.82	0.01	0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.10	0.06	77.27	77.67	0.05	0.03
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.05	0.06	76.19	75.94	0.03	0.03
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.06	54.55	56.79	0.00	0.01
Utah	P12	0.05	0.06	18.18	15.01	-0.03	-0.04
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.06	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
Washington	P12	0.05	0.06	69.57	66.54	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.06	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.10	0.06	71.43	66.60	0.04	0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.06	69.57	65.47	0.02	0.02
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.06	78.26	72.66	0.03	0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.06	61.90	63.52	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.10	0.06	20.83	20.60	-0.06	-0.03
Rutgers	BE	0.10	0.06	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.10	0.06	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.00	0.06	45.45	46.08	-0.00	-0.00
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.06	65.22	65.17	0.02	0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.06	66.67	60.80	0.02	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.06	82.61	77.63	0.03	0.03
Illinois	B10	0.10	0.06	72.73	64.43	0.04	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.06	75.00	75.78	0.02	0.03
Iowa	B10	0.10	0.06	54.17	49.44	0.01	-0.00
Mercer	ASun	0.09	0.06	70.83	71.64	0.04	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.00	0.06	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.00
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.06	33.33	38.38	-0.02	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.06	61.90	55.14	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.09	0.06	26.32	29.79	-0.04	-0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.03	58.33	59.98	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.03	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.00
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.00	0.03	43.48	44.25	-0.00	-0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.03	55.00	57.41	0.00	0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.03	42.86	41.13	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.03	33.33	34.47	-0.02	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.00	0.03	34.78	35.50	-0.00	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.00	0.03	5.26	7.30	-0.00	-0.03
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.03	8.70	13.10	-0.04	-0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.00	0.03	31.82	42.13	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.03	31.82	25.98	-0.02	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.87	0.02	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.03	68.18	69.10	0.02	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.15	0.02	0.01
California	P12	0.05	0.03	75.00	74.61	0.02	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.00	0.03	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Florida International	SB	0.05	0.03	33.33	37.16	-0.02	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	72.73	71.71	0.02	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.03	30.00	34.15	-0.02	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.03	63.64	56.71	0.01	0.00
Montana St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	45.00	41.76	-0.00	-0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	100.00	94.55	0.05	0.03
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.03	68.18	67.64	0.02	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.03	81.82	81.03	0.03	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	68.18	69.68	0.02	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.03	13.64	16.14	-0.04	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	64.53	0.02	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.03	63.64	63.16	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.03	31.82	33.83	-0.02	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.09	0.00	0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.03	85.71	82.18	0.04	0.02
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	68.29	0.02	0.01
Temple	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	75.06	0.03	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	44.66	-0.00	-0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.03	60.87	59.05	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.03	81.82	76.80	0.03	0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.03	52.63	48.41	0.00	-0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.03	34.78	34.61	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.03	35.00	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	28.57	34.20	-0.02	-0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.03	44.44	41.71	-0.01	-0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.03	19.05	22.37	-0.03	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.43	0.02	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.03	72.73	66.81	0.02	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.00	0.03	86.96	85.46	0.00	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.03	41.67	38.67	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.03	40.91	39.56	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.03	45.00	46.13	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.03	45.00	44.15	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.00