Fairfield

Conference:	MAAC
Expected RPI:	180.0
Current RPI:	180
Expected SOS:	192
Current SOS:	192
Current Record:	17-16
Expected Record:	17-16
Current Conf Record:	12-10
Expected Conf Record:	12-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-5
Current OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC RPI:	128
Expected OOC SOS:	54

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-16	180.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fairfield.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Penn (112.0)	Ivy	H	80-72	W	100%
11-14	Loyola MD (322.0)	Pat	H	64-52	W	100%
11-18	Purdue (9.0)	B10	A	106-64	L	0%
11-24	Jacksonville (286.0)	ASun	N	84-92	L	0%
11-25	Gardner Webb (244.0)	BSth	N	64-75	W	100%
11-26	Wright St. (99.0)	Horz	A	57-56	L	0%
12-1	Wagner (109.0)	NEC	A	78-76	L	0%
12-6	Houston (18.0)	Amer	A	88-66	L	0%
12-10	LIU Brooklyn (232.0)	NEC	A	72-76	W	100%
12-17	Old Dominion (78.0)	CUSA	H	77-82	L	0%
12-22	New Hampshire (312.0)	AE	H	78-68	W	100%
12-28	Saint Peter's (251.0)	MAAC	H	70-61	W	100%
12-30	Manhattan (228.0)	MAAC	A	61-58	L	0%
1-5	Rider (69.0)	MAAC	A	96-77	L	0%
1-7	Iona (107.0)	MAAC	A	84-65	L	0%
1-11	Manhattan (228.0)	MAAC	H	53-59	L	0%
1-13	Marist (324.0)	MAAC	A	95-89	L	0%
1-20	Niagara (163.0)	MAAC	H	104-85	W	100%
1-23	Rider (69.0)	MAAC	H	88-90	L	0%
1-27	Quinnipiac (277.0)	MAAC	N	75-70	L	0%
1-29	Iona (107.0)	MAAC	H	103-100	W	100%
2-2	Monmouth (199.0)	MAAC	A	78-79	W	100%
2-5	Siena (299.0)	MAAC	H	78-65	W	100%
2-10	Niagara (163.0)	MAAC	A	95-83	L	0%
2-12	Canisius (124.0)	MAAC	A	81-63	L	0%
2-15	Marist (324.0)	MAAC	H	83-79	W	100%
2-17	Quinnipiac (277.0)	MAAC	H	102-98	W	100%
2-21	Siena (299.0)	MAAC	A	69-70	W	100%
2-24	Monmouth (199.0)	MAAC	H	69-66	W	100%
3-1	Marist (324.0)	MAAC	N	71-57	W	100%
3-3	Niagara (163.0)	MAAC	N	77-90	W	100%
3-4	Quinnipiac (277.0)	MAAC	N	74-64	W	100%
3-5	Iona (107.0)	MAAC	N	83-71	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fairfield's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Fairfield's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Fairfield.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Fairfield	MAAC	26.55	26.55	51.82	51.82	0.97	0.97
Quinnipiac	MAAC	5.41	5.41	36.67	36.67	-1.44	-1.44
Iona	MAAC	5.38	5.38	60.00	60.00	1.08	1.08
Niagara	MAAC	5.38	5.38	62.07	62.07	1.30	1.30
Marist	MAAC	5.33	5.33	17.86	17.86	-3.43	-3.43
Manhattan	MAAC	4.00	4.00	41.38	41.38	-0.69	-0.69
Siena	MAAC	3.93	3.93	26.67	26.67	-1.83	-1.83
Rider	MAAC	3.91	3.91	68.97	68.97	1.48	1.48
Monmouth	MAAC	3.89	3.89	37.93	37.93	-0.94	-0.94
Saint Peter's	MAAC	2.66	2.66	45.16	45.16	-0.26	-0.26
Canisius	MAAC	2.53	2.53	64.52	64.52	0.74	0.74
Wagner	NEC	1.63	1.63	68.97	68.97	0.62	0.62
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	1.61	1.61	53.12	53.12	0.10	0.10
New Hampshire	AE	1.59	1.59	28.57	28.57	-0.68	-0.68
Wright St.	Horz	1.57	1.57	70.97	70.97	0.66	0.66
Gardner Webb	BSth	1.56	1.56	39.29	39.29	-0.34	-0.34
Jacksonville	ASun	1.56	1.56	35.71	35.71	-0.45	-0.45
Penn	Ivy	1.56	1.56	76.67	76.67	0.83	0.83
Houston	Amer	1.52	1.52	78.12	78.12	0.85	0.85
Loyola MD	Pat	1.52	1.52	27.59	27.59	-0.68	-0.68
Old Dominion	CUSA	1.52	1.52	77.42	77.42	0.83	0.83
Purdue	B10	1.52	1.52	81.82	81.82	0.96	0.96
Army	Pat	0.29	0.29	41.38	41.38	-0.05	-0.05
Hartford	AE	0.27	0.27	58.06	58.06	0.04	0.04
Holy Cross	Pat	0.24	0.24	38.71	38.71	-0.05	-0.05
Robert Morris	NEC	0.24	0.24	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Albany	AE	0.24	0.24	67.74	67.74	0.09	0.09
Lehigh	Pat	0.22	0.22	51.72	51.72	0.01	0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.21	0.21	38.46	38.46	-0.05	-0.05
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.21	0.21	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
UMass Lowell	AE	0.20	0.20	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Hofstra	CAA	0.19	0.19	60.00	60.00	0.04	0.04
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.19	0.19	23.08	23.08	-0.10	-0.10
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.19	0.19	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Yale	Ivy	0.19	0.19	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.17	0.17	73.53	73.53	0.08	0.08
Bryant	NEC	0.17	0.17	9.68	9.68	-0.14	-0.14
NJIT	ASun	0.17	0.17	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Vermont	AE	0.17	0.17	78.79	78.79	0.10	0.10
Lafayette	Pat	0.17	0.17	30.00	30.00	-0.07	-0.07
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.17	0.17	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.17	0.17	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Seton Hall	BE	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Liberty	BSth	0.14	0.14	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.14	0.14	32.35	32.35	-0.05	-0.05
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.14	0.14	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
Massachusetts	A10	0.14	0.14	39.39	39.39	-0.03	-0.03
Stetson	ASun	0.13	0.13	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Hampton	MEAC	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.12	0.12	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Towson	CAA	0.12	0.12	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.12	0.12	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.12	0.12	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.12	0.12	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Maine	AE	0.12	0.12	13.33	13.33	-0.09	-0.09
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.12	0.12	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Cornell	Ivy	0.12	0.12	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.12	0.12	26.92	26.92	-0.05	-0.05
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.12	0.12	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.12	0.12	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Minnesota	B10	0.12	0.12	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.10	0.10	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.10	0.10	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Binghamton	AE	0.10	0.10	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Princeton	Ivy	0.10	0.10	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Milwaukee	Horz	0.10	0.10	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	82.76	82.76	0.06	0.06
Nebraska	B10	0.10	0.10	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Memphis	Amer	0.10	0.10	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.09	0.09	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	Amer	0.09	0.09	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.09	0.09	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.09	0.09	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Wake Forest	ACC	0.09	0.09	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
USC Upstate	ASun	0.08	0.08	10.71	10.71	-0.06	-0.06
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.08	0.08	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Boston University	Pat	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.07	0.07	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
UMKC	WAC	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
West Virginia	B12	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
UCF	Amer	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	Amer	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.07	0.07	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Providence	BE	0.07	0.07	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Tulsa	Amer	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.07	0.07	9.68	9.68	-0.06	-0.06
BYU	WCC	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Green Bay	Horz	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
UT Arlington	SB	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.07	0.07	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Maryland	B10	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
IUPUI	Horz	0.07	0.07	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Louisville	ACC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado	P12	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
St. John's	BE	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Syracuse	ACC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.07	0.07	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Rutgers	B10	0.07	0.07	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
UMBC	AE	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	93.94	93.94	0.04	0.04
Xavier	BE	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.03	0.03
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Charlotte	CUSA	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
College of Charleston	CAA	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Elon	CAA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Oakland	Horz	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
East Carolina	Amer	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
SMU	Amer	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
South Florida	Amer	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.04	0.04	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Utah St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.02	0.02	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.02	0.02	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.02	0.02	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.02	0.02	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.02	0.02	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Pacific	WCC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.02	0.02	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Texas St.	SB	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
UTEP	CUSA	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
VCU	A10	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.02	0.02	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.02	0.02	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.02	0.02	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
LSU	SEC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	Slnd	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Louis	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arizona	P12	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Butler	BE	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.00	0.00
Chicago St.	WAC	0.02	0.02	3.33	3.33	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana	B10	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.02	0.02	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.02	0.02	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00