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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Fairfield

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:299.0
Current RPI:299
Expected SOS:151
Current SOS:151
Current Record:7-24
Expected Record:7-24
Current Conf Record:5-16
Expected Conf Record:5-16
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-8
Current OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC RPI:234
Expected OOC SOS:25



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-24299.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fairfield.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Central Connecticut (342.0)NECN63-71W100%0.0
11-15Duke (6.0)ACCA109-59L0%0.0
11-21Wofford (47.0)SCH36-54L0%0.0
11-22Sam Houston St. (82.0)SlndH60-74L0%0.0
11-23South Dakota (213.0)SumH80-72W100%0.0
11-29Northeastern (86.0)CAAA57-48L0%0.0
12-1Bucknell (136.0)PatH66-72L0%0.0
12-5Manhattan (168.0)MAACH67-54W100%0.0
12-7Quinnipiac (226.0)MAACA52-56W100%0.0
12-20Belmont (105.0)OVCH61-73L0%0.0
12-22Albany (99.0)AEA77-66L0%0.0
12-28Loyola MD (270.0)PatN59-61L0%0.0
1-2Siena (261.0)MAACH67-68L0%0.0
1-5Rider (140.0)MAACH46-62L0%0.0
1-11Siena (261.0)MAACA67-79W100%0.0
1-13Iona (51.0)MAACA74-58L0%0.0
1-16Marist (317.0)MAACH60-54W100%0.0
1-18Monmouth (176.0)MAACA77-70L0%0.0
1-22Canisius (180.0)MAACH50-64L0%0.0
1-25Marist (317.0)MAACA73-67L0%0.0
1-30Monmouth (176.0)MAACH59-60L0%0.0
2-5Rider (140.0)MAACA54-52L0%0.0
2-7Saint Peter's (233.0)MAACA69-58L0%0.0
2-10Iona (51.0)MAACH57-72L0%0.0
2-13Quinnipiac (226.0)MAACH59-60L0%0.0
2-15Manhattan (168.0)MAACA79-70L0%0.0
2-19Niagara (287.0)MAACH53-55L0%0.0
2-21Saint Peter's (233.0)MAACH57-43W100%0.0
2-27Canisius (180.0)MAACA72-65L0%0.0
3-1Niagara (287.0)MAACA57-56L0%0.0
3-5Saint Peter's (233.0)MAACN63-33L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fairfield's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Fairfield's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Fairfield.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
FairfieldMAAC26.3926.3920.5320.53-15.56-15.56
Saint Peter'sMAAC5.865.8645.1645.16-0.57-0.57
ManhattanMAAC4.384.3860.0060.000.880.88
IonaMAAC4.374.3775.0075.002.192.19
SienaMAAC4.364.3634.4834.48-1.35-1.35
MonmouthMAAC4.324.3251.6151.610.140.14
MaristMAAC4.324.3220.0020.00-2.59-2.59
RiderMAAC4.294.2963.3363.331.141.14
NiagaraMAAC4.264.2621.4321.43-2.43-2.43
QuinnipiacMAAC4.264.2650.0050.000.000.00
CanisiusMAAC4.234.2350.0050.000.000.00
AlbanyAE1.801.8074.1974.190.870.87
BucknellPat1.791.7954.8454.840.170.17
WoffordSC1.741.7480.6580.651.071.07
Loyola MDPat1.721.7234.4834.48-0.53-0.53
Central ConnecticutNEC1.711.7116.6716.67-1.14-1.14
South DakotaSum1.671.6750.0050.000.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd1.661.6671.4371.430.710.71
NortheasternCAA1.661.6666.6766.670.550.55
DukeACC1.641.6487.5087.501.231.23
BelmontOVC1.611.6166.6766.670.540.54
HartfordAE0.310.3144.8344.83-0.03-0.03
LehighPat0.260.2651.7251.720.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.250.2541.3841.38-0.04-0.04
Holy CrossPat0.240.2444.8344.83-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.230.2353.1253.120.010.01
VermontAE0.210.2156.6756.670.030.03
CornellIvy0.200.2041.3841.38-0.04-0.04
PennIvy0.200.2032.1432.14-0.07-0.07
ArmyPat0.180.1848.2848.28-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.170.1731.2531.25-0.06-0.06
St. BonaventureA100.160.1658.0658.060.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
FordhamA100.150.1530.0030.00-0.06-0.06
WagnerNEC0.150.1531.0331.03-0.06-0.06
ColgatePat0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
MaineAE0.130.1310.0010.00-0.10-0.10
PittsburghACC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
NavyPat0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Tennessee St.OVC0.120.1210.3410.34-0.10-0.10
TowsonCAA0.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
ElonCAA0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
AmericanPat0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
UMBCAE0.100.1013.3313.33-0.08-0.08
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
BinghamtonAE0.100.1016.6716.67-0.07-0.07
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.06-0.06
VMISC0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
FurmanSC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.1065.5265.520.030.03
George MasonA100.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
BrownIvy0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
DrexelCAA0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0886.6786.670.060.06
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
UNLVMWC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
YaleIvy0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
St. John'sBE0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
DenverSum0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
IPFWSum0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
NJITind0.080.0856.0056.000.010.01
SyracuseACC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
StanfordP120.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
New HampshireAE0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
MarylandB100.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
West VirginiaB120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
HofstraCAA0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Notre DameACC0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Seton HallBE0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
DelawareCAA0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.060.0642.3142.31-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
UMKCWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
IUPUISum0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
MercerSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0527.2727.27-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0359.2659.260.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MichiganB100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
ClemsonACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
TempleAmer0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
VirginiaACC0.020.0290.6290.620.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.020.0291.1891.180.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.020.0274.0774.070.010.01
RichmondA100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00