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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Fairfield

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:289.0
Current RPI:289
Expected SOS:154
Current SOS:154
Current Record:7-25
Expected Record:7-25
Current Conf Record:4-17
Expected Conf Record:4-17
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-8
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:225
Expected OOC SOS:81



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-25289.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fairfield.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Sacred Heart (338.0)NECH67-54W100%0.0
11-13Hartford (234.0)AEH53-63L0%0.0
11-16Loyola MD (274.0)PatA59-52L0%0.0
11-20Holy Cross (127.0)PatH49-63L0%0.0
11-23Louisville (19.0)AmerN57-71L0%0.0
11-24Richmond (75.0)A10N47-68L0%0.0
11-29Providence (40.0)BEA78-69L0%0.0
12-6Quinnipiac (105.0)MAACA83-79L0%0.0
12-8Iona (59.0)MAACH72-83L0%0.0
12-15Northeastern (222.0)CAAH64-60W100%0.0
12-21Green Bay (58.0)HorzA74-58L0%0.0
12-28Bucknell (167.0)PatA64-73W100%0.0
1-2Marist (250.0)MAACA75-56L0%0.0
1-4Manhattan (60.0)MAACA83-57L0%0.0
1-8Saint Peter's (231.0)MAACH55-56L0%0.0
1-10Iona (59.0)MAACA84-75L0%0.0
1-16Niagara (302.0)MAACH63-67L0%0.0
1-18Manhattan (60.0)MAACH71-67W100%0.0
1-20Belmont (57.0)OVCA62-53L0%0.0
1-23Monmouth (292.0)MAACA63-60L0%0.0
1-26Siena (193.0)MAACH56-64L0%0.0
2-1Canisius (96.0)MAACH58-84L0%0.0
2-3Rider (198.0)MAACA73-65L0%0.0
2-7Monmouth (292.0)MAACH60-56W100%0.0
2-10Siena (193.0)MAACA77-75L0%0.0
2-13Quinnipiac (105.0)MAACH72-80L0%0.0
2-15Rider (198.0)MAACH62-71L0%0.0
2-20Niagara (302.0)MAACA66-72W100%0.0
2-22Canisius (96.0)MAACA90-78L0%0.0
2-25Saint Peter's (231.0)MAACA63-62L0%0.0
2-28Marist (250.0)MAACH78-74W100%0.0
3-6Saint Peter's (231.0)MAACN65-62L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fairfield's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Fairfield's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Fairfield.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
FairfieldMAAC26.3926.3919.8619.86-15.90-15.90
Saint Peter'sMAAC5.655.6539.2939.29-1.21-1.21
ManhattanMAAC4.244.2480.0080.002.542.54
IonaMAAC4.214.2166.6766.671.401.40
CanisiusMAAC4.194.1963.3363.331.121.12
QuinnipiacMAAC4.184.1862.0762.071.011.01
NiagaraMAAC4.174.1719.3519.35-2.55-2.55
RiderMAAC4.164.1641.3841.38-0.72-0.72
MaristMAAC4.164.1637.9337.93-1.00-1.00
MonmouthMAAC4.114.1133.3333.33-1.37-1.37
SienaMAAC4.114.1143.3343.33-0.55-0.55
Holy CrossPat1.811.8158.0658.060.290.29
HartfordAE1.791.7950.0050.000.000.00
BucknellPat1.721.7255.1755.170.180.18
Loyola MDPat1.661.6632.1432.14-0.59-0.59
ProvidenceBE1.611.6166.6766.670.540.54
RichmondA101.611.6156.2556.250.200.20
BelmontOVC1.611.6170.9770.970.680.68
Sacred HeartNEC1.611.6116.6716.67-1.07-1.07
LouisvilleAmer1.591.5984.8584.851.111.11
NortheasternCAA1.591.5935.4835.48-0.46-0.46
Green BayHorz1.561.5676.9276.920.840.84
HofstraCAA0.320.3230.3030.30-0.12-0.12
Boston UniversityPat0.310.3170.5970.590.130.13
LehighPat0.310.3143.7543.75-0.04-0.04
AlbanyAE0.250.2556.2556.250.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.240.2453.1253.120.020.02
Seton HallBE0.240.2450.0050.000.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.220.2223.3323.33-0.12-0.12
FordhamA100.220.2232.2632.26-0.08-0.08
La SalleA100.220.2248.3948.39-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.210.2133.3333.33-0.07-0.07
PennIvy0.200.2028.5728.57-0.08-0.08
ArmyPat0.180.1846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.180.1862.5062.500.040.04
CornellIvy0.170.173.703.70-0.16-0.16
Stony BrookAE0.170.1768.7568.750.060.06
VermontAE0.170.1766.6766.670.060.06
ColgatePat0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
NavyPat0.150.1527.5927.59-0.07-0.07
Saint Joseph'sA100.150.1572.7372.730.070.07
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.150.1531.0331.03-0.06-0.06
WagnerNEC0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
Kent St.MAC0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.150.1534.4834.48-0.05-0.05
PurdueB100.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.150.1564.2964.290.040.04
St. John'sBE0.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
HamptonMEAC0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.120.1217.8617.86-0.08-0.08
VCUA100.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
RutgersAmer0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
ElonSC0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
New HampshireAE0.100.1017.2417.24-0.06-0.06
DelawareCAA0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
VillanovaBE0.100.1087.5087.500.070.07
DaytonA100.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
BrownIvy0.100.1051.8551.850.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
MemphisAmer0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
HarvardIvy0.080.0886.2186.210.060.06
South DakotaSum0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Penn St.B100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
MarylandACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
DrexelCAA0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
George MasonA100.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
James MadisonCAA0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
YaleIvy0.070.0751.8551.850.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
KentuckySEC0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
CreightonBE0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
HoustonAmer0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
DetroitHorz0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
UICHorz0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
OaklandHorz0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0578.5778.570.030.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
LipscombASun0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
NevadaMWC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
TowsonCAA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
WoffordSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
DavidsonSC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
DePaulBE0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
WisconsinB100.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Miami FLACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
StanfordP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
DenverSum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
MichiganB100.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
NJITind0.020.0236.0036.00-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0294.1294.120.020.02
MinnesotaB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
OhioMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
WashingtonP120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
FIUCUSA0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
UMKCWAC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01