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Through games of Feb 7, 2016.


Fairfield

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:170.0
Current RPI:164
Expected SOS:186
Current SOS:158
Current Record:13-11
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:7-7
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-5
Current OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC RPI:101
Expected OOC SOS:100



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-11129.41.84%
18-12144.211.83%
17-13159.227.50%
16-14173.232.93%
15-15187.819.73%
14-16203.95.56%
13-17220.00.60%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fairfield.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Yale (55.6)IvyN70-57L0%0.0
11-15North Carolina (10.8)ACCA92-65L0%0.0
11-18Northwestern (114.5)B10A79-72L0%0.0
11-21Sacred Heart (275.0)NECH83-79W100%0.0
11-24Maryland Eastern Shore (267.6)MEACA74-113W100%0.0
11-27Columbia (125.6)IvyH82-81W100%0.0
12-1Iona (124.5)MAACA101-77L0%0.0
12-4Rider (226.7)MAACH74-70W100%0.0
12-18Wagner (191.0)NECH64-76L0%0.0
12-22Loyola MD (231.0)PatH94-88W100%0.0
12-27Bucknell (168.4)PatA91-101W100%0.0
1-2Manhattan (226.6)MAACA72-66L0%0.0
1-4Dartmouth (290.6)IvyH97-85W100%0.0
1-7Siena (100.1)MAACA91-76L0%0.0
1-9Rider (226.7)MAACA64-69W100%0.0
1-11Monmouth (41.5)MAACH74-86L0%0.0
1-15Niagara (308.0)MAACH73-68W100%0.0
1-19Saint Peter's (228.2)MAACH71-77L0%0.0
1-22Marist (312.2)MAACA76-88W100%0.0
1-24Iona (124.5)MAACH98-91W100%0.0
1-29Canisius (216.9)MAACH84-77W100%0.0
2-1Quinnipiac (267.5)MAACH59-64L0%0.0
2-5Monmouth (41.5)MAACA91-67L0%0.0
2-7Manhattan (226.6)MAACH80-70W100%0.0
2-13Quinnipiac (267.5)MAACA0-054%1.2
2-15Marist (312.2)MAACH0-083%10.3
2-18Canisius (216.9)MAACA0-039%-2.9
2-20Niagara (308.0)MAACA0-062%3.4
2-24Siena (100.1)MAACH0-041%-2.5
2-27Saint Peter's (228.2)MAACA0-044%-1.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fairfield's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Fairfield's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Fairfield.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
FairfieldMAAC26.4726.4151.8953.841.002.03
SienaMAAC3.004.4062.5063.050.751.15
CanisiusMAAC3.054.3845.8346.35-0.25-0.32
MonmouthMAAC4.814.3877.2779.432.622.58
RiderMAAC4.914.3843.4845.01-0.64-0.44
MaristMAAC2.904.3723.8125.93-1.52-2.10
QuinnipiacMAAC2.824.3735.0034.82-0.84-1.33
NiagaraMAAC2.954.3525.0024.95-1.48-2.18
IonaMAAC4.894.3461.9061.521.161.00
ManhattanMAAC4.824.3342.1141.36-0.76-0.75
Saint Peter'sMAAC2.784.2835.0039.17-0.83-0.93
ColumbiaIvy2.431.9470.0067.540.970.68
DartmouthIvy2.221.9033.3333.01-0.74-0.64
BucknellPat2.321.8757.1460.290.330.38
Sacred HeartNEC2.331.8436.3638.39-0.63-0.43
WagnerNEC2.341.8361.9063.730.560.50
YaleIvy2.181.8172.2273.670.970.86
Loyola MDPat2.221.8136.3638.48-0.60-0.42
NorthwesternB102.271.7865.2262.200.690.43
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.131.7031.8236.36-0.78-0.46
North CarolinaACC2.131.6981.8277.981.350.95
CornellIvy0.430.4042.1140.16-0.07-0.08
BrownIvy0.300.3531.5831.05-0.11-0.13
PrincetonIvy0.290.3272.2274.710.130.16
HartfordAE0.380.3126.0926.50-0.18-0.15
VermontAE0.290.2854.1757.520.020.04
Holy CrossPat0.280.2639.1338.34-0.06-0.06
AlbanyAE0.240.2575.0075.850.120.13
St. Francis NYNEC0.330.2437.5043.37-0.08-0.03
BryantNEC0.240.2325.0026.37-0.12-0.11
LehighPat0.280.2333.3337.25-0.09-0.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.280.2347.8348.91-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.320.2352.1753.380.010.02
Boston UniversityPat0.180.2354.1755.570.020.03
LafayettePat0.230.2122.7324.04-0.13-0.11
Morgan St.MEAC0.280.2020.0026.74-0.17-0.09
St. BonaventureA100.170.1971.4368.970.070.07
HarvardIvy0.160.1835.0038.52-0.05-0.04
PennIvy0.110.1838.8937.66-0.02-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.140.1850.0051.910.000.01
AmericanPat0.230.1830.4331.89-0.09-0.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.230.1840.0045.51-0.05-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.190.1828.0030.73-0.08-0.07
MarylandB100.260.1687.5083.690.200.11
Central ConnecticutNEC0.150.1513.0413.54-0.11-0.11
St. Francis PANEC0.140.1550.0049.440.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.190.1421.7423.32-0.11-0.08
DukeACC0.100.1473.9170.040.050.06
USCP120.230.1478.2673.060.130.06
Penn St.B100.130.1450.0046.740.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.130.1465.2264.220.040.04
Seton HallBE0.150.1273.9169.830.070.05
MaineAE0.150.1234.7834.00-0.05-0.04
ColgatePat0.090.1245.4546.10-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.090.1262.5062.450.020.03
Oregon St.P120.140.1161.9056.420.030.01
DrexelCAA0.180.1113.6418.14-0.13-0.07
Kent St.MAC0.090.1163.6459.440.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.170.1156.5256.610.020.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.140.1182.6178.890.090.06
George MasonA100.150.0934.7834.15-0.04-0.03
HowardMEAC0.090.0938.1040.73-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0925.0033.21-0.05-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.140.0931.8232.67-0.05-0.03
Kansas St.B120.140.0860.8758.470.030.01
WoffordSC0.140.0840.9145.38-0.03-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0850.0049.090.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.090.0826.0923.72-0.04-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.130.0854.1752.340.010.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0829.1733.15-0.04-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0856.5262.780.010.02
Notre DameACC0.130.0869.5765.850.050.03
RutgersB100.090.0821.7420.35-0.05-0.05
UCLAP120.130.0856.5253.240.020.01
WisconsinB100.090.0860.8755.840.020.01
LongwoodBSth0.100.0622.7324.97-0.06-0.03
NJITASun0.100.0654.1755.250.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.0652.0050.250.000.00
FordhamA100.100.0655.0052.290.010.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0678.2674.420.030.03
MemphisAmer0.100.0660.8760.770.020.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.0685.7185.390.070.04
IllinoisB100.050.0645.8344.11-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.090.0681.8280.030.060.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.069.5213.52-0.00-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0650.0049.860.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0650.0053.300.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.090.0680.9582.700.060.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0645.4554.11-0.010.00
TowsonCAA0.090.0665.2259.750.030.01
TulsaAmer0.090.0665.2261.450.030.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.090.0642.8650.41-0.010.00
UMBCAE0.090.0624.0026.41-0.05-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0681.8283.040.060.04
Wake ForestACC0.090.0643.4840.61-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.090.0683.3383.020.060.04
MissouriSEC0.090.0634.7830.36-0.03-0.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0676.1968.220.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0530.4326.50-0.02-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.040.0559.0958.880.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0523.8126.56-0.04-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0521.7422.74-0.05-0.03
DaytonA100.090.0586.3682.380.060.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0552.6350.220.000.00
La SalleA100.080.0520.0020.45-0.05-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.040.0542.8646.34-0.01-0.00
MinnesotaB100.090.0526.0927.82-0.04-0.02
NebraskaB100.040.0554.1751.810.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.040.0514.2917.92-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.040.0558.3354.160.010.00
ProvidenceBE0.080.0575.0070.940.040.02
RadfordBSth0.040.0550.0051.270.000.00
SyracuseACC0.050.0566.6762.560.020.01
Virginia TechACC0.090.0554.1749.270.01-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.040.0530.4332.35-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0366.6767.690.020.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0355.0053.180.010.00
SMUAmer0.050.0390.9186.130.040.02
StanfordP120.050.0350.0046.610.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0331.8236.14-0.02-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0373.9172.480.020.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0315.0022.36-0.03-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0357.1459.470.010.01
KansasB120.050.0381.8277.570.030.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0340.9149.27-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0335.0035.98-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0366.6762.620.020.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0326.0929.20-0.02-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.040.034.357.73-0.04-0.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0360.8760.240.010.01
DavidsonA100.050.0360.0057.960.010.00
DePaulBE0.040.0334.7834.45-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0369.5764.890.020.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0352.1751.590.000.00
IndianaB100.040.0379.1774.020.030.01
IowaB100.040.0382.6180.580.030.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0382.6177.740.030.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0381.8276.740.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0369.5766.220.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.040.0316.6720.13-0.03-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.040.0327.7834.50-0.02-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0354.1755.080.000.00
PurdueB100.000.0379.1776.550.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.040.0317.3920.66-0.03-0.02
TempleAmer0.050.0363.6459.840.010.01
TexasB120.050.0369.5762.630.020.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0333.3332.34-0.02-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0328.5731.89-0.02-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.0382.6178.050.000.02