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Through games of Dec 21, 2014.


Louisville

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:8.2
Current RPI:9
Expected SOS:12
Current SOS:54
Current Record:10-0
Expected Record:26-5
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:10-0
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:12
Expected OOC SOS:60



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
31-01.20.24%
30-11.81.33%
29-22.75.47%
28-33.913.92%
27-45.721.96%
26-58.023.46%
25-610.717.83%
24-713.710.26%
23-817.64.02%
22-922.31.14%
21-1028.00.28%
20-1133.20.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Minnesota (39.4)B10N68-81W100%0.0
11-17Jacksonville St. (271.5)OVCH88-39W100%0.0
11-21Marshall (232.1)CUSAH85-67W100%0.0
11-24Savannah St. (319.1)MEACH87-26W100%0.0
11-26Cleveland St. (131.7)HorzH45-33W100%0.0
12-2Ohio St. (14.3)B10H64-55W100%0.0
12-5FIU (180.9)CUSAH82-57W100%0.0
12-9Indiana (56.9)B10N94-74W100%0.0
12-14UNC Wilmington (113.9)CAAH68-57W100%0.0
12-20Western Kentucky (144.2)CUSAA67-76W100%0.0
12-23Cal St. Northridge (306.1)BWH0-0100%33.5
12-27Kentucky (1.3)SECH0-035%-4.6
12-30Long Beach St. (86.2)BWH0-096%20.5
1-4Wake Forest (155.5)ACCA0-088%14.0
1-7Clemson (165.0)ACCH0-098%23.4
1-10North Carolina (10.2)ACCA0-041%-2.7
1-13Virginia Tech (205.5)ACCH0-099%25.8
1-17Duke (4.7)ACCH0-061%3.2
1-25Pittsburgh (113.7)ACCA0-085%11.8
1-28Boston College (175.5)ACCA0-091%15.9
1-31North Carolina (10.2)ACCH0-069%5.9
2-3Miami FL (42.8)ACCA0-069%5.9
2-7Virginia (4.5)ACCA0-027%-7.2
2-11Pittsburgh (113.7)ACCH0-096%20.4
2-14North Carolina St. (50.0)ACCH0-090%14.7
2-18Syracuse (74.5)ACCA0-072%6.9
2-21Miami FL (42.8)ACCH0-089%14.5
2-23Georgia Tech (76.2)ACCA0-082%10.8
2-28Florida St. (189.3)ACCA0-091%15.6
3-4Notre Dame (51.1)ACCH0-081%10.4
3-7Virginia (4.5)ACCH0-055%1.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Louisville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Louisville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LouisvilleACC27.5726.04100.0082.4927.5716.92
North CarolinaACC0.233.7872.7376.550.102.01
Miami FLACC0.233.7581.8269.190.141.44
PittsburghACC0.233.7570.0055.220.090.39
VirginiaACC0.253.75100.0092.150.253.16
Wake ForestACC0.252.2245.4538.50-0.02-0.51
North Carolina St.ACC0.002.2275.0062.850.000.57
SyracuseACC0.002.2260.0058.780.000.39
Virginia TechACC0.002.2260.0039.570.00-0.46
Florida St.ACC0.002.2254.5542.750.00-0.32
Boston CollegeACC0.002.2160.0039.810.00-0.45
DukeACC0.002.19100.0088.330.001.68
Georgia TechACC0.002.1980.0055.070.000.22
Notre DameACC0.002.1791.6778.520.001.24
ClemsonACC0.002.1660.0045.310.00-0.20
MarshallCUSA5.731.8125.0037.86-2.86-0.44
Savannah St.MEAC6.011.7720.0028.27-3.60-0.77
IndianaB105.231.7790.0065.144.180.54
Cleveland St.Horz5.761.7544.4453.80-0.640.13
Western KentuckyCUSA5.251.7555.5653.720.580.13
MinnesotaB105.251.7588.8970.554.080.72
Ohio St.B105.001.7490.0084.884.001.22
FIUCUSA5.001.7344.4448.76-0.56-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC5.761.7055.5638.850.64-0.38
Long Beach St.BW0.001.6936.3652.26-0.000.08
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.001.6718.1823.70-0.00-0.88
KentuckySEC0.001.66100.0097.270.001.57
UNC WilmingtonCAA5.001.6466.6757.331.670.24
CharlotteCUSA0.000.2754.5564.030.000.08
PurdueB100.000.2166.6759.240.000.04
IowaB100.000.2166.6759.170.000.04
FloridaSEC0.000.2163.6464.970.000.06
Penn St.B100.280.1991.6755.080.230.02
RutgersB100.000.1954.5532.610.00-0.06
Old DominionCUSA0.360.1790.0082.040.290.11
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1742.8648.12-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.1630.0035.75-0.00-0.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.230.1650.0068.830.000.06
HawaiiBW0.000.1666.6754.450.000.01
MarylandB100.000.1691.6772.610.000.07
Michigan St.B100.000.1666.6766.950.000.05
ProvidenceBE0.000.1675.0057.450.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.230.1463.6456.310.060.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1472.7367.570.000.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.250.1436.3637.27-0.07-0.03
DavidsonA100.360.1388.8976.830.280.07
OaklandHorz0.000.1327.2732.26-0.00-0.05
NebraskaB100.000.1366.6744.010.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.1390.9188.760.000.10
IllinoisB100.000.1375.0065.050.000.04
MichiganB100.000.1350.0040.340.00-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.110.0011.84-0.00-0.09
WinthropBSth0.700.1125.0044.51-0.35-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1154.5548.910.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.1127.2735.54-0.00-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1145.4545.06-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.1122.2236.02-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.1150.0071.160.000.05
William & MaryCAA0.000.1157.1457.190.000.02
Morehead St.OVC0.510.1116.6737.43-0.34-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.250.1160.0057.740.050.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.110.0014.49-0.00-0.08
Kansas St.B120.230.1163.6440.220.06-0.02
Green BayHorz0.000.1177.7878.340.000.06
Cal PolyBW0.000.1137.5041.68-0.00-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.1187.5067.460.000.04
UC IrvineBW0.000.1144.4448.17-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.1150.0042.770.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.1137.5064.62-0.000.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.580.1120.0034.83-0.35-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.280.1166.6765.440.090.03
West VirginiaB120.280.1190.9170.260.230.04
GeorgiaSEC0.250.1166.6763.320.080.03
NorthwesternB100.000.1163.6442.700.00-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1172.7372.880.000.05
St. John'sBE0.250.1188.8965.680.190.03
SamfordSC0.000.1038.4634.30-0.00-0.03
UCLAP120.000.1066.6754.590.000.01
BelmontOVC0.250.0863.6464.930.070.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.0850.0041.130.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0816.6726.53-0.00-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0837.5027.75-0.00-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.000.0863.6472.270.000.04
UTSACUSA0.000.0837.5035.62-0.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0844.4451.04-0.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0870.0076.570.000.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.230.080.0023.75-0.23-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.000.0870.0059.740.000.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0854.5559.550.000.02
LSUSEC0.000.0880.0063.750.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0816.6735.21-0.00-0.02
NevadaMWC0.000.0811.1125.40-0.00-0.04
VCUA100.000.0872.7376.010.000.04
East CarolinaAmer0.360.0833.3338.20-0.12-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0830.0043.77-0.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.250.080.0028.78-0.25-0.03
HarvardIvy0.000.0875.0063.910.000.02
AkronMAC0.000.0860.0056.450.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.250.0877.7869.870.140.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.0880.0072.430.000.04
MassachusettsA100.000.0854.5551.400.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0830.0038.92-0.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.230.0872.7368.580.100.03
Holy CrossPat0.000.0850.0049.140.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0830.0037.19-0.00-0.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0660.0047.200.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.000.060.008.46-0.00-0.05
Austin PeayOVC0.250.0620.0029.06-0.15-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.500.0675.0067.220.250.02
Murray St.OVC0.250.0660.0064.830.050.02
DetroitHorz0.000.0640.0047.83-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0640.0042.88-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0618.1820.68-0.00-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0630.0030.65-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0644.4449.08-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0681.8272.960.000.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0645.4543.17-0.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.230.0525.0043.91-0.11-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.250.050.0011.31-0.25-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.050.0013.95-0.00-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0536.3646.70-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0550.0051.710.000.00
LibertyBSth0.360.0525.0035.29-0.18-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0538.4644.44-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.250.0570.0052.340.100.00
TulaneAmer0.230.0588.8956.070.180.01
VMISC0.360.0533.3338.75-0.12-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.250.0563.6467.200.070.02
Western CarolinaSC0.250.0527.2743.96-0.11-0.01
HartfordAE0.250.0554.5553.240.020.00
IonaMAAC0.250.0560.0069.180.050.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0510.0018.51-0.00-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.250.0533.3328.70-0.08-0.02
StetsonASun0.250.0510.0026.86-0.20-0.02
ToledoMAC0.250.0563.6461.500.070.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.250.0512.5039.50-0.19-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0580.0069.340.000.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0566.6765.780.000.02
La SalleA100.000.0554.5553.370.000.00
SeattleWAC0.250.0540.0046.92-0.05-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0566.6778.090.000.03
XavierBE0.000.0572.7367.750.000.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0533.3338.71-0.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0550.0039.580.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.050.0010.55-0.00-0.04
FurmanSC0.000.0522.2231.93-0.00-0.02
High PointBSth0.230.0566.6761.820.080.01
MarquetteBE0.230.0560.0049.390.05-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0520.0026.61-0.00-0.02
TexasB120.000.0590.9180.170.000.03
UMass LowellAE0.230.0550.0050.260.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0566.6758.480.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0570.0052.050.000.00
BryantNEC0.000.0537.5050.46-0.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0542.8649.17-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.230.0520.0043.19-0.14-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.0537.5033.78-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.230.0536.3645.36-0.06-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0530.0028.63-0.00-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0544.4437.49-0.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0540.0032.37-0.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0533.3340.88-0.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0512.5029.75-0.00-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.050.008.70-0.00-0.04
RichmondA100.000.0560.0057.960.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.050.0032.85-0.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0540.0041.10-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0577.7865.410.000.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0555.5646.470.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0514.2931.52-0.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.0577.7875.500.000.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0318.1830.67-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0342.8637.93-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.250.0360.0042.970.05-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.250.0340.0055.83-0.050.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0055.800.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.250.0328.5761.90-0.110.01
Arkansas St.SB0.280.0342.8649.26-0.04-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.250.0350.0048.150.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.250.0366.6762.820.080.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.250.0333.3344.93-0.08-0.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0360.0061.850.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.250.0337.5056.99-0.060.00
San FranciscoWCC0.250.0345.4552.17-0.020.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0312.5026.95-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0340.0046.04-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0366.6764.890.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.250.0337.5031.93-0.06-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0082.820.000.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0337.5035.77-0.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.0370.0068.400.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0337.5049.96-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.000.0350.0054.440.000.00
MaineAE0.000.0310.0022.40-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.039.0915.53-0.00-0.02
New HampshireAE0.000.0350.0060.240.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0372.7361.760.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.250.0325.0034.43-0.13-0.01
OregonP120.000.0370.0057.400.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0366.6755.760.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.0350.0042.750.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0366.6773.340.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0052.960.000.00
South DakotaSum0.000.0333.3343.01-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.250.030.0034.55-0.25-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0333.3334.44-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.250.0318.1825.24-0.16-0.01
USCP120.000.0363.6440.160.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0075.560.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0355.5652.210.000.00
ArmyPat0.000.0380.0067.350.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0377.7872.900.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0330.0041.58-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.000.0340.0037.24-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0377.7871.240.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0390.9168.430.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0370.0064.920.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0366.6769.260.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0350.0058.340.000.00
CornellIvy0.000.0350.0046.480.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.230.0360.0076.800.050.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0340.0037.46-0.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0337.5039.38-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0370.0059.760.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.009.03-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0316.6743.50-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.000.0390.0071.080.000.01
LamarSlnd0.230.0314.2936.23-0.16-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0330.0028.28-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.230.039.0917.38-0.19-0.02
NavyPat0.000.0320.0022.49-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0320.0046.45-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0018.31-0.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.0350.0057.910.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8633.60-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0390.9183.170.000.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0333.3341.93-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0360.0062.090.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.230.0355.5660.570.030.01
SMUAmer0.230.0372.7375.960.100.01
StanfordP120.000.0366.6758.210.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.0363.6456.720.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0370.0061.360.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.230.0320.0053.25-0.140.00
UCFAmer0.000.0355.5635.910.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0355.5656.250.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0083.420.000.02