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Through games of Mar 11, 2012.


Louisville

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:13.0
Current RPI:13
Expected SOS:8
Current SOS:8
Current Record:26-9
Expected Record:26-9
Current Conf Record:14-8
Expected Conf Record:14-8
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:5
Expected OOC SOS:40



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-913.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Tennessee Martin (326.0)OVCH83-48W100%0.0
11-13Lamar (108.0)SlndH68-48W100%0.0
11-19Butler (113.0)HorzA53-69W100%0.0
11-22Arkansas St. (222.0)SBH54-27W100%0.0
11-25Ohio (47.0)MACH59-54W100%0.0
11-28Long Beach St. (34.0)BWH79-66W100%0.0
12-2Vanderbilt (18.0)SECH62-60W100%0.0
12-7IUPUI (211.0)SumH90-60W100%0.0
12-10Fairleigh Dickinson (330.0)NECH80-58W100%0.0
12-17Memphis (16.0)CUSAH95-87W100%0.0
12-20College of Charleston (122.0)SCH69-62W100%0.0
12-23Western Kentucky (189.0)SBH70-60W100%0.0
12-28Georgetown (15.0)BEH68-71L0%0.0
12-31Kentucky (2.0)SECA69-62L0%0.0
1-3St. John's (159.0)BEA58-73W100%0.0
1-7Notre Dame (39.0)BEH65-67L0%0.0
1-10Providence (156.0)BEA90-59L0%0.0
1-14DePaul (198.0)BEH76-59W100%0.0
1-16Marquette (9.0)BEA74-63L0%0.0
1-21Pittsburgh (96.0)BEA62-73W100%0.0
1-25Villanova (121.0)BEH84-74W100%0.0
1-28Seton Hall (68.0)BEA51-60W100%0.0
2-4Rutgers (163.0)BEH78-66W100%0.0
2-6Connecticut (32.0)BEH80-59W100%0.0
2-11West Virginia (57.0)BEA74-77W100%0.0
2-13Syracuse (1.0)BEH51-52L0%0.0
2-18DePaul (198.0)BEA82-90W100%0.0
2-23Cincinnati (44.0)BEA60-56L0%0.0
2-26Pittsburgh (96.0)BEH57-54W100%0.0
2-29South Florida (52.0)BEH51-58L0%0.0
3-3Syracuse (1.0)BEA58-49L0%0.0
3-7Seton Hall (68.0)BEN61-55W100%0.0
3-8Marquette (9.0)BEN71-84W100%0.0
3-9Notre Dame (39.0)BEN50-64W100%0.0
3-10Cincinnati (44.0)BEN44-50W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Louisville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Louisville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LouisvilleBE26.0826.0871.9071.9011.4211.42
CincinnatiBE3.463.4671.8871.881.511.51
PittsburghBE3.413.4154.8454.840.330.33
Seton HallBE3.413.4166.6766.671.141.14
MarquetteBE3.413.4180.0080.002.042.04
SyracuseBE3.413.4193.5593.552.972.97
Notre DameBE3.393.3967.7467.741.201.20
DePaulBE3.393.3941.3841.38-0.58-0.58
ConnecticutBE2.142.1462.5062.500.530.53
GeorgetownBE2.132.1372.4172.410.960.96
St. John'sBE2.072.0741.9441.94-0.33-0.33
ProvidenceBE2.052.0545.1645.16-0.20-0.20
VillanovaBE2.052.0541.9441.94-0.33-0.33
South FloridaBE2.052.0558.0658.060.330.33
RutgersBE2.032.0345.1645.16-0.20-0.20
West VirginiaBE2.022.0261.2961.290.460.46
KentuckySEC1.541.5493.9493.941.351.35
VanderbiltSEC1.541.5472.7372.730.700.70
Arkansas St.SB1.521.5240.6240.62-0.28-0.28
LamarSlnd1.521.5267.7467.740.540.54
OhioMAC1.501.5081.2581.250.940.94
Tennessee MartinOVC1.491.497.147.14-1.28-1.28
MemphisCUSA1.481.4878.7978.790.850.85
IUPUISum1.471.4741.3841.38-0.25-0.25
Western KentuckySB1.471.4746.8846.88-0.09-0.09
Long Beach St.BW1.471.4776.6776.670.780.78
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.451.4510.7110.71-1.14-1.14
ButlerHorz1.431.4359.3859.380.270.27
College of CharlestonSC1.431.4363.3363.330.380.38
TennesseeSEC0.210.2154.8454.840.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.190.1960.6160.610.040.04
GeorgiaSEC0.190.1946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.180.1858.0658.060.030.03
FloridaSEC0.170.1769.7069.700.070.07
MississippiSEC0.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
Louisiana St.SEC0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.140.1470.5970.590.060.06
Middle TennesseeSB0.130.1380.0080.000.080.08
AuburnSEC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
XavierA100.130.1363.6463.640.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.120.1239.2939.29-0.02-0.02
MonmouthNEC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
WagnerNEC0.110.1180.6580.650.070.07
Murray St.OVC0.110.1196.4396.430.110.11
AlbanyAE0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.110.1182.3582.350.070.07
Northwestern St.Slnd0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
Florida AtlanticSB0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
North TexasSB0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Central FloridaCUSA0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
South CarolinaSEC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Cal PolyBW0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0934.6234.62-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0923.0823.08-0.05-0.05
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Longwoodind0.090.0922.2222.22-0.05-0.05
BryantNEC0.090.096.676.67-0.08-0.08
Sacred HeartNEC0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0975.0075.000.040.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.GWC0.090.0910.7110.71-0.07-0.07
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
DenverSB0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
Florida InternationalSB0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
IndianaB100.090.0975.7675.760.040.04
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.070.0729.6329.63-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0781.8281.820.040.04
NC GreensboroSC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
St. Peter'sMAAC0.070.0716.1316.13-0.05-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
OaklandSum0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
UC DavisBW0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
UC IrvineBW0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0764.2964.290.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSC0.070.0746.4346.43-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
DavidsonSC0.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
Holy CrossPat0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NC AshevilleBSth0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.070.0761.2961.290.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
FordhamA100.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
MissouriB120.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
PennsylvaniaIvy0.070.0761.2961.290.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0732.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
MaineAE0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
StanfordP120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
TroySB0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Southern MississippiCUSA0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
BucknellPat0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0664.7164.710.020.02
TulaneCUSA0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
RadfordBSth0.060.0613.3313.33-0.05-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Long IslandNEC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0528.0028.00-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahSum0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
LehighPat0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
VermontAE0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.056.676.67-0.04-0.04
AmericanPat0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
ElonSC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
PacificBW0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
LafayettePat0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
George MasonCAA0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
DaytonA100.040.0462.5062.500.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.040.0425.8125.81-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.040.0426.6726.67-0.02-0.02
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.040.0413.3313.33-0.03-0.03
MercerASun0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.040.0430.7730.77-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.040.0458.0658.060.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.040.0457.1457.140.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.040.0420.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.040.0467.7467.740.020.02
WinthropBSth0.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.040.0472.7372.730.020.02
YaleIvy0.040.0465.3865.380.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.040.0485.2985.290.030.03
SamfordSC0.040.0432.1432.14-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.040.0457.5857.580.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.040.0448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.040.0458.0658.060.010.01
St. LouisA100.040.0477.4277.420.020.02
CharlotteA100.040.0443.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.040.0443.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCAA0.040.0460.6160.610.010.01
Penn St.B100.040.0437.5037.50-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.040.0448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.040.0426.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.040.0448.1548.15-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
George WashingtonA100.040.0432.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.040.0425.0025.00-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.040.0462.5062.500.010.01
MarylandACC0.040.0453.1253.120.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.040.0443.7543.75-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.040.0440.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Seattleind0.040.0437.5037.50-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.040.0410.3410.34-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
Virginia Military InstBSth0.040.0446.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.040.0448.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.040.0448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
PortlandWCC0.040.0420.0020.00-0.03-0.03
TulsaCUSA0.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.040.0434.4834.48-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.040.0440.7440.74-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.040.0448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.040.0446.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Texas El PasoCUSA0.040.0446.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacNEC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0232.0032.00-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
ClemsonACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0257.6957.690.000.00
CreightonMVC0.020.0284.8584.850.020.02
IdahoWAC0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
MontanaBSky0.020.0279.3179.310.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
BaylorB120.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityAE0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
BrownIvy0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
DukeACC0.020.0281.8281.820.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
Iowa St.B120.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
New HampshireAE0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.020.0260.7160.710.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
TempleA100.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
Texas A&MB120.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Texas ChristianMWC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Texas St.Slnd0.020.0234.6234.62-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.020.0216.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0238.4638.46-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.020.0286.2186.210.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0239.3939.39-0.00-0.00
BelmontASun0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
HoustonCUSA0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
MichiganB100.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
OregonP120.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Southern MethodistCUSA0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01