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Through games of Feb 9, 2016.


Louisville

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:18.3
Current RPI:27
Expected SOS:39
Current SOS:78
Current Record:19-5
Expected Record:24-7
Current Conf Record:8-3
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:46
Expected OOC SOS:197



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-58.23.89%
25-611.517.74%
24-715.531.78%
23-820.028.35%
22-926.114.28%
21-1037.63.35%
20-1152.00.58%
19-1261.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Samford (249.0)SCH86-45W100%0.0
11-17Hartford (313.4)AEH87-52W100%0.0
11-21North Florida (136.9)ASunH89-61W100%0.0
11-24St. Francis NY (282.9)NECH85-41W100%0.0
11-28Saint Louis (201.0)A10N77-57W100%0.0
12-2Michigan St. (19.0)B10A71-67L0%0.0
12-5Grand Canyon (101.3)WACH111-63W100%0.0
12-12Eastern Michigan (144.0)MACH86-53W100%0.0
12-16Kennesaw St. (293.8)ASunH94-57W100%0.0
12-19Western Kentucky (176.7)CUSAH78-56W100%0.0
12-22UMKC (273.9)WACH75-47W100%0.0
12-23Utah Valley (257.7)WACH98-68W100%0.0
12-26Kentucky (17.5)SECA75-73L0%0.0
1-3Wake Forest (127.3)ACCH65-57W100%0.0
1-7North Carolina St. (116.4)ACCA72-77W100%0.0
1-10Clemson (109.8)ACCA66-62L0%0.0
1-14Pittsburgh (47.2)ACCH59-41W100%0.0
1-20Florida St. (46.5)ACCH84-65W100%0.0
1-23Georgia Tech (89.9)ACCA71-75W100%0.0
1-27Virginia Tech (131.8)ACCA83-91W100%0.0
1-30Virginia (5.9)ACCH47-63L0%0.0
2-1North Carolina (11.3)ACCH71-65W100%0.0
2-6Boston College (233.1)ACCH79-47W100%0.0
2-8Duke (18.0)ACCA72-65L0%0.0
2-13Notre Dame (34.1)ACCA0-061%3.1
2-17Syracuse (53.3)ACCH0-086%11.9
2-20Duke (18.0)ACCH0-068%5.1
2-24Pittsburgh (47.2)ACCA0-061%3.1
2-27Miami FL (11.4)ACCA0-048%-0.6
3-1Georgia Tech (89.9)ACCH0-089%13.6
3-5Virginia (5.9)ACCA0-044%-1.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Louisville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Louisville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LouisvilleACC26.0826.0678.8976.6015.0713.87
Georgia TechACC2.353.7654.5554.700.210.35
DukeACC2.433.7673.9172.211.161.67
PittsburghACC2.393.7576.1971.211.251.59
VirginiaACC2.443.7382.6178.501.592.13
Virginia TechACC2.482.2354.1750.490.210.02
Boston CollegeACC2.432.2230.4327.63-0.95-0.99
ClemsonACC2.442.2256.5256.870.320.31
SyracuseACC0.402.2066.6764.160.130.62
Miami FLACC0.402.2082.6178.390.261.25
North Carolina St.ACC2.482.2052.1750.730.110.03
Notre DameACC0.442.2070.8368.800.180.83
North CarolinaACC2.432.1986.9681.011.801.36
Wake ForestACC2.392.1945.4541.86-0.22-0.36
Florida St.ACC2.482.1772.7367.131.130.74
North FloridaASun2.311.7868.1869.610.840.70
Grand CanyonWAC2.181.7486.3684.131.591.19
UMKCWAC2.181.7330.0034.04-0.87-0.55
Utah ValleyWAC2.181.7335.0036.35-0.65-0.47
St. Francis NYNEC2.261.7239.1344.87-0.49-0.18
Kennesaw St.ASun2.171.7022.7324.27-1.18-0.87
HartfordAE2.221.7026.0927.68-1.06-0.76
Saint LouisA102.221.7038.1034.70-0.53-0.52
Michigan St.B102.181.6779.1780.981.271.03
Eastern MichiganMAC2.171.6742.1145.11-0.34-0.16
KentuckySEC2.131.6673.9171.701.020.72
SamfordSC2.131.6443.4844.12-0.28-0.19
Western KentuckyCUSA2.081.6147.6247.89-0.10-0.07
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.280.2414.2915.46-0.20-0.16
VCUA100.230.2173.9173.970.110.10
DuquesneA100.230.1960.8756.430.050.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.190.1866.6767.700.060.06
Chicago St.WAC0.140.184.357.72-0.13-0.15
New Mexico St.WAC0.240.1865.2268.600.070.07
SeattleWAC0.190.1847.6244.99-0.01-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.230.1722.7323.24-0.12-0.09
NJITASun0.220.1754.1755.280.020.02
LSUSEC0.220.1665.2260.260.070.03
IndianaB100.130.1679.1774.040.080.08
WoffordSC0.220.1643.4846.22-0.03-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.140.1450.0049.830.00-0.00
IowaB100.180.1482.6180.550.120.08
AlabamaSEC0.130.1359.0953.250.020.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.180.1327.2731.05-0.08-0.05
ArkansasSEC0.180.1350.0053.100.000.01
CornellIvy0.090.1342.1140.21-0.01-0.03
FloridaSEC0.130.1366.6766.320.040.04
Ohio St.B100.090.1360.0055.500.020.01
Central MichiganMAC0.200.1247.6249.35-0.01-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.100.1265.2260.590.030.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.1247.6252.05-0.010.00
LipscombASun0.090.1225.0029.30-0.05-0.05
StetsonASun0.140.1223.8127.67-0.07-0.05
DetroitHorz0.150.1147.6245.85-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.150.1156.5256.990.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.090.1128.5731.30-0.04-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.140.1143.4843.78-0.02-0.01
OaklandHorz0.140.1168.0067.980.050.04
West VirginiaB120.130.1179.1778.090.080.06
CharlotteCUSA0.050.1134.7840.91-0.01-0.02
DavidsonA100.140.1160.0057.940.030.02
Stony BrookAE0.130.1181.8282.630.090.07
Penn St.B100.140.1150.0046.740.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.090.1159.0959.420.020.02
George MasonA100.090.1133.3333.68-0.03-0.04
ElonCAA0.090.1152.1750.420.000.00
AlbanyAE0.130.1176.0076.310.070.06
Central ConnecticutNEC0.130.1113.0413.55-0.10-0.08
UMass LowellAE0.130.1134.7835.65-0.04-0.03
BryantNEC0.090.1125.0026.39-0.04-0.05
Long Beach St.BW0.090.1145.4551.34-0.010.00
RutgersB100.130.1121.7420.37-0.07-0.06
VillanovaBE0.090.1187.5086.910.070.08
GeorgiaSEC0.130.1059.0955.300.020.01
TennesseeSEC0.090.1050.0048.130.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.150.0956.5256.320.020.01
UTSACUSA0.140.0913.6413.63-0.10-0.06
Florida A&MMEAC0.130.0925.0025.08-0.07-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0886.9686.660.070.06
MarshallCUSA0.090.0850.0051.210.000.00
MercerSC0.130.0869.5769.020.050.03
MinnesotaB100.130.0826.0927.79-0.06-0.04
VermontAE0.100.0852.0054.860.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.090.0847.6249.40-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.090.0886.9682.300.070.05
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0850.0052.370.000.00
IllinoisB100.090.0845.8344.13-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0829.1733.74-0.04-0.03
PurdueB100.090.0880.0077.930.050.05
UABCUSA0.090.0882.6179.370.060.05
VMISC0.090.0815.0016.72-0.06-0.05
Arizona St.P120.130.0854.1751.690.010.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.130.0822.7327.22-0.07-0.04
NebraskaB100.090.0854.1751.880.010.00
George WashingtonA100.090.0878.2674.410.050.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.130.0834.7837.05-0.04-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.040.0850.0049.460.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.090.0824.0026.33-0.05-0.04
BinghamtonAE0.090.0820.8324.09-0.05-0.04
LehighPat0.040.0836.3639.78-0.01-0.02
MaineAE0.090.0833.3333.13-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.090.0857.1453.990.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0871.4368.940.020.03
William & MaryCAA0.090.0871.4369.830.040.03
NortheasternCAA0.090.0845.8346.64-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.130.0875.0070.990.060.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0814.2924.89-0.06-0.04
UCLAP120.130.0856.5253.270.020.01
UtahP120.040.0869.5767.500.020.03
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0856.5259.860.010.02
YaleIvy0.090.0873.6874.680.040.04
ColgatePat0.050.0843.4844.80-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.040.0856.0052.830.010.00
NorthwesternB100.130.0864.0062.060.040.02
TulaneAmer0.090.0833.3332.36-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.040.0860.8755.830.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.0676.1973.420.050.03
Ball St.MAC0.050.0660.8757.190.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0660.0057.610.010.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0660.8762.040.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0631.8232.69-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.100.0620.8323.21-0.06-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.0647.8350.19-0.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.050.0640.9143.71-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0663.6461.420.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0637.5040.54-0.02-0.01
BelmontOVC0.090.0666.6766.540.030.02
FIUCUSA0.090.0640.9145.30-0.02-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0617.3920.65-0.06-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0625.0030.01-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0652.3854.080.000.00
FurmanSC0.090.0654.1754.060.010.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0671.4369.410.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.090.0633.3333.04-0.03-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0656.5262.790.010.01
The CitadelSC0.090.0631.8230.06-0.03-0.02
IUPUISum0.090.0540.0039.81-0.02-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.0536.8442.89-0.02-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0552.1751.910.000.00
XavierBE0.090.0587.5081.810.070.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0552.0050.250.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0525.0024.33-0.04-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.090.0533.3334.22-0.03-0.02
TexasB120.090.0566.6762.200.030.01
BradleyMVC0.040.0512.5012.90-0.03-0.04
CaliforniaP120.040.0565.2262.830.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.0550.0051.920.000.00
La SalleA100.000.0520.0020.46-0.00-0.03
LibertyBSth0.040.0534.7836.50-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.040.0547.8348.87-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.090.0540.9139.33-0.02-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.040.0519.0525.89-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.040.0540.0045.50-0.01-0.00
RichmondA100.050.0554.5554.470.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.040.0528.0030.73-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.0540.9143.29-0.02-0.01
WagnerNEC0.090.0563.6465.020.020.02
BucknellPat0.090.0554.5558.160.010.01
FordhamA100.040.0555.0052.190.000.00
Kansas St.B120.090.0560.8758.300.020.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.040.0582.6178.910.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.040.0586.3679.110.030.03
St. John'sBE0.040.0525.0023.40-0.02-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.040.0545.4554.14-0.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0524.0025.67-0.04-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.040.0540.0038.98-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0554.5556.020.000.01
KansasB120.090.0582.6179.190.060.03
MarylandB100.090.0587.5083.700.060.04
MichiganB100.090.0569.5766.220.030.02
MissouriSEC0.090.0534.7830.33-0.03-0.02
SienaMAAC0.040.0564.0064.140.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.090.0520.0019.68-0.05-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0578.2677.860.000.03
BYUWCC0.050.0366.6769.490.020.01
DenverSum0.050.0354.1751.790.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0345.0046.13-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0345.8342.26-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0385.7185.380.040.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0341.6741.23-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0377.2776.870.030.02
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0315.0015.34-0.03-0.02
UC DavisBW0.050.0340.0036.76-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0365.0069.240.010.01
AkronMAC0.050.0382.6181.140.030.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0350.0045.840.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0314.2920.67-0.04-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0334.7833.09-0.02-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0340.0040.31-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0331.8236.14-0.02-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.039.0912.24-0.04-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0359.0961.320.010.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0369.5766.580.020.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0320.0022.32-0.03-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.050.0331.5837.70-0.02-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0372.7372.110.020.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0361.9065.300.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0366.6762.650.020.01
IdahoBSky0.040.0354.5554.950.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0371.4368.760.000.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0328.5729.66-0.02-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0331.5832.01-0.00-0.01
TroySB0.040.0323.8126.71-0.02-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0352.1751.920.000.00
ButlerBE0.000.0369.5767.150.000.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0323.8126.56-0.02-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0360.0060.080.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0363.6460.920.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.040.0331.5831.75-0.02-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0333.3334.01-0.02-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0365.2264.220.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.040.0339.1338.31-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.040.0321.7423.00-0.02-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0357.8961.740.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0343.4842.66-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.040.0342.8642.05-0.01-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0359.0959.630.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0380.0081.160.000.02
NiagaraMAAC0.040.0324.0024.55-0.02-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0318.1821.15-0.03-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.040.0325.0033.22-0.02-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.040.0325.0026.86-0.02-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0372.2274.700.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.040.0336.3636.15-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0358.3357.170.010.00
RiderMAAC0.040.0340.0042.11-0.01-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0372.0070.540.020.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0373.9176.720.020.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0330.4332.36-0.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.040.0328.5733.36-0.02-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.040.0326.0929.17-0.02-0.01
AuburnSEC0.040.0339.1335.43-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.040.0363.6462.590.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.040.0354.1755.600.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0373.9172.480.000.01
DelawareCAA0.040.0321.7423.34-0.02-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.040.0354.1754.140.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.040.0315.0018.09-0.03-0.02
HarvardIvy0.040.0335.0038.50-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.040.0355.0057.460.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.040.0354.1750.940.000.00
Iowa St.B120.040.0373.9170.050.020.01
LamarSlnd0.040.0330.0029.27-0.02-0.01
MississippiSEC0.040.0362.5058.930.010.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.040.0329.1733.12-0.02-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.040.0354.1755.020.000.00
RadfordBSth0.040.0350.0051.300.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.040.0330.4331.20-0.02-0.01
TempleAmer0.040.0363.6459.810.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.040.0372.7371.650.020.01
WinthropBSth0.040.0365.0063.410.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.040.0356.5257.010.010.00