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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Louisville

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:7.0
Current RPI:7
Expected SOS:2
Current SOS:2
Current Record:24-8
Expected Record:24-8
Current Conf Record:12-7
Expected Conf Record:12-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:2
Expected OOC SOS:5



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-87.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Evansville (188.0)MVCH78-47W100%0.0
11-14William & Mary (110.0)CAAH91-58W100%0.0
11-17Long Beach St. (214.0)BWH88-56W100%0.0
11-23Old Dominion (138.0)CUSAN62-68W100%0.0
11-24Wichita St. (32.0)MVCN62-52W100%0.0
11-25Baylor (11.0)B12N66-63L0%0.0
11-30Purdue (19.0)B10H71-64W100%0.0
12-3Grand Canyon (131.0)WACA70-79W100%0.0
12-7Southern Illinois (145.0)MVCH74-51W100%0.0
12-10Texas Southern (108.0)SWACH102-71W100%0.0
12-17Eastern Kentucky (247.0)OVCH87-56W100%0.0
12-21Kentucky (3.0)SECH73-70W100%0.0
12-28Virginia (18.0)ACCH53-61L0%0.0
12-31Indiana (79.0)B10N62-77W100%0.0
1-4Notre Dame (23.0)ACCA77-70L0%0.0
1-7Georgia Tech (105.0)ACCA50-65W100%0.0
1-11Pittsburgh (74.0)ACCH85-80W100%0.0
1-14Duke (6.0)ACCH78-69W100%0.0
1-19Clemson (69.0)ACCH92-60W100%0.0
1-21Florida St. (14.0)ACCA73-68L0%0.0
1-24Pittsburgh (74.0)ACCA51-106W100%0.0
1-29North Carolina St. (141.0)ACCH85-60W100%0.0
2-4Boston College (219.0)ACCA67-90W100%0.0
2-6Virginia (18.0)ACCA71-55L0%0.0
2-11Miami FL (41.0)ACCH71-66W100%0.0
2-13Syracuse (84.0)ACCA72-76W100%0.0
2-18Virginia Tech (48.0)ACCH94-90W100%0.0
2-22North Carolina (5.0)ACCA74-63L0%0.0
2-26Syracuse (84.0)ACCH88-68W100%0.0
3-1Wake Forest (38.0)ACCA88-81L0%0.0
3-4Notre Dame (23.0)ACCH71-64W100%0.0
3-9Duke (6.0)ACCN77-81L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Louisville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Louisville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LouisvilleACC26.0126.0175.3875.3813.2113.21
DukeACC3.783.7878.7978.792.182.18
Notre DameACC3.753.7575.0075.001.871.87
PittsburghACC3.733.7351.6151.610.120.12
VirginiaACC3.723.7266.6766.671.241.24
SyracuseACC3.653.6560.0060.000.730.73
North CarolinaACC2.302.3078.1278.121.291.29
Florida St.ACC2.202.2075.0075.001.101.10
Georgia TechACC2.182.1853.3353.330.150.15
Miami FLACC2.182.1867.7467.740.770.77
Virginia TechACC2.162.1670.9770.970.910.91
Boston CollegeACC2.162.1629.0329.03-0.91-0.91
ClemsonACC2.162.1654.8454.840.210.21
Wake ForestACC2.162.1658.0658.060.350.35
North Carolina St.ACC2.112.1148.3948.39-0.07-0.07
Wichita St.MVC1.691.6990.6290.621.371.37
Southern IllinoisMVC1.681.6851.6151.610.050.05
EvansvilleMVC1.661.6646.6746.67-0.11-0.11
PurdueB101.661.6680.6580.651.011.01
IndianaB101.641.6456.2556.250.200.20
William & MaryCAA1.631.6353.5753.570.120.12
Texas SouthernSWAC1.611.6169.7069.700.640.64
Long Beach St.BW1.611.6141.9441.94-0.26-0.26
Grand CanyonWAC1.611.6171.4371.430.690.69
Old DominionCUSA1.591.5963.3363.330.420.42
KentuckySEC1.591.5987.8887.881.201.20
BaylorB121.591.5976.6776.670.850.85
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.561.5635.7135.71-0.45-0.45
Penn St.B100.240.2445.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.220.2281.2581.250.140.14
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.200.2053.3353.330.010.01
IowaB100.190.1956.2556.250.020.02
Michigan St.B100.190.1957.5857.580.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.170.1733.3333.33-0.06-0.06
BradleyMVC0.170.1737.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Missouri St.MVC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.170.1744.8344.83-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.170.1773.5373.530.080.08
NorthwesternB100.170.1767.6567.650.060.06
KansasB120.170.1787.5087.500.120.12
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.160.1684.3884.380.110.11
Morehead St.OVC0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.150.1555.8855.880.020.02
DrakeMVC0.150.1520.6920.69-0.09-0.09
Alcorn St.SWAC0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
VillanovaBE0.140.1491.1891.180.120.12
FloridaSEC0.140.1475.0075.000.070.07
ElonCAA0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.120.1253.5753.570.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
RiceCUSA0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.120.1268.5768.570.040.04
LSUSEC0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.1017.8617.86-0.07-0.07
Kansas St.B120.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.100.1010.3410.34-0.08-0.08
SeattleWAC0.100.1037.0437.04-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
AuburnSEC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
OklahomaB120.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
HawaiiBW0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1021.8821.88-0.05-0.05
SouthernSWAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
IllinoisB100.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
MinnesotaB100.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
YaleIvy0.100.1060.7160.710.020.02
MarylandB100.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
TennesseeSEC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
Texas TechB120.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
VCUA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
TexasB120.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
RichmondA100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
St. John'sBE0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
TCUB120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
North FloridaASun0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0710.0010.00-0.06-0.06
UC IrvineBW0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
MississippiSEC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
RutgersB100.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.073.333.33-0.07-0.07
AlabamaSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
DuquesneA100.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Fort WayneSum0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
MaineAE0.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
UNLVMWC0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
BelmontOVC0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
LibertyBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
North TexasCUSA0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
DartmouthIvy0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
UTEPCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
DavidsonA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
BuffaloMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
SMUAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
BryantNEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
ToledoMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
HartfordAE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.020.0261.5461.540.010.01
MercerSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
NJITASun0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
The CitadelSC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
VMISC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
ButlerBE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
DetroitHorz0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
IonaMAAC0.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
SamfordSC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
TempleAmer0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
TulsaAmer0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
La SalleA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01