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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Louisville

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:3.0
Current RPI:3
Expected SOS:6
Current SOS:6
Current Record:29-5
Expected Record:29-5
Current Conf Record:17-4
Expected Conf Record:17-4
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:7
Expected OOC SOS:26



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-53.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Manhattan (183.0)MAACH79-51W100%0.0
11-15Samford (291.0)SCH80-54W100%0.0
11-18Miami OH (258.0)MACH80-39W100%0.0
11-22Northern Iowa (83.0)MVCN46-51W100%0.0
11-23Missouri (36.0)SECN84-61W100%0.0
11-24Duke (1.0)ACCN71-76L0%0.0
12-1Illinois St. (117.0)MVCH69-66W100%0.0
12-4College of Charleston (133.0)SCA38-80W100%0.0
12-8Missouri Kansas City (284.0)SumH99-47W100%0.0
12-15Memphis (12.0)CUSAA78-87W100%0.0
12-19Florida International (111.0)SBH79-55W100%0.0
12-22Western Kentucky (150.0)SBN78-55W100%0.0
12-29Kentucky (56.0)SECH80-77W100%0.0
1-2Providence (91.0)BEH80-62W100%0.0
1-9Seton Hall (138.0)BEA58-73W100%0.0
1-12South Florida (156.0)BEH64-38W100%0.0
1-14Connecticut (49.0)BEA58-73W100%0.0
1-19Syracuse (14.0)BEH68-70L0%0.0
1-22Villanova (52.0)BEA73-64L0%0.0
1-26Georgetown (11.0)BEA53-51L0%0.0
1-28Pittsburgh (44.0)BEH64-61W100%0.0
2-3Marquette (13.0)BEH70-51W100%0.0
2-6Rutgers (109.0)BEA48-68W100%0.0
2-9Notre Dame (35.0)BEA104-101L0%0.0
2-14St. John's (96.0)BEH72-58W100%0.0
2-17South Florida (156.0)BEA41-59W100%0.0
2-23Seton Hall (138.0)BEH79-61W100%0.0
2-27DePaul (204.0)BEA58-79W100%0.0
3-2Syracuse (14.0)BEA53-58W100%0.0
3-4Cincinnati (50.0)BEH67-51W100%0.0
3-9Notre Dame (35.0)BEH73-57W100%0.0
3-14Villanova (52.0)BEN74-55W100%0.0
3-15Notre Dame (35.0)BEN69-57W100%0.0
3-16Syracuse (14.0)BEN78-61W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Louisville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Louisville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LouisvilleBE26.1726.1786.1886.1818.9418.94
SyracuseBE5.015.0178.1278.122.822.82
Notre DameBE4.964.9677.4277.422.722.72
Seton HallBE3.583.5848.3948.39-0.12-0.12
VillanovaBE3.553.5560.0060.000.710.71
South FloridaBE3.513.5141.3841.38-0.61-0.61
GeorgetownBE2.142.1480.0080.001.291.29
MarquetteBE2.132.1376.6776.671.131.13
St. John'sBE2.132.1353.3353.330.140.14
RutgersBE2.132.1350.0050.000.000.00
ProvidenceBE2.122.1256.6756.670.280.28
CincinnatiBE2.112.1168.7568.750.790.79
DePaulBE2.112.1135.4835.48-0.61-0.61
PittsburghBE2.102.1077.4277.421.151.15
ConnecticutBE2.042.0468.9768.970.770.77
KentuckySEC1.601.6067.7467.740.570.57
Western KentuckySB1.561.5657.5857.580.240.24
SamfordSC1.561.5633.3333.33-0.52-0.52
Northern IowaMVC1.561.5656.6756.670.210.21
College of CharlestonSC1.541.5475.0075.000.770.77
Illinois St.MVC1.541.5456.2556.250.190.19
Florida InternationalSB1.541.5458.0658.060.250.25
MemphisCUSA1.521.5290.9190.911.241.24
Missouri Kansas CitySum1.521.5223.3323.33-0.81-0.81
DukeACC1.491.4983.8783.871.011.01
MissouriSEC1.491.4971.8871.880.650.65
ManhattanMAAC1.471.4745.1645.16-0.14-0.14
Miami OHMAC1.471.4727.5927.59-0.66-0.66
EvansvilleMVC0.180.1854.8454.840.020.02
MonmouthNEC0.170.1732.2632.26-0.06-0.06
Bowling GreenMAC0.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
BradleyMVC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Central FloridaCUSA0.140.1462.0762.070.030.03
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.140.1448.0048.00-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
VanderbiltSEC0.140.1448.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
TempleA100.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
ArkansasSEC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
Appalachian St.SC0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.120.1255.8855.880.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
ElonSC0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
St. Peter'sMAAC0.110.1130.0030.00-0.05-0.05
FloridaSEC0.110.1178.7978.790.070.07
TennesseeSEC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
DavidsonSC0.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
MississippiSEC0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
AuburnSEC0.110.1128.1228.12-0.05-0.05
AlabamaSEC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Middle TennesseeSB0.110.1184.8584.850.080.08
George WashingtonA100.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.110.1114.8114.81-0.08-0.08
NiagaraMAAC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
PurdueB100.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
ColgatePat0.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.110.1128.1228.12-0.05-0.05
CanisiusMAAC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.097.147.14-0.08-0.08
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
FordhamA100.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
NC GreensboroSC0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0968.7568.750.040.04
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0931.2531.25-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Stony BrookAE0.090.0976.6776.670.050.05
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
CreightonMVC0.090.0979.4179.410.050.05
DrakeMVC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.090.0917.2417.24-0.06-0.06
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
The CitadelSC0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
DelawareCAA0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
MarylandACC0.090.0964.7164.710.030.03
Loyola MDMAAC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Long IslandNEC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
UABCUSA0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
North TexasSB0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.090.0936.3636.36-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.090.0944.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Virginia CommonwealthA100.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Chicago St.GWC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0910.0010.00-0.07-0.07
PrincetonIvy0.090.0959.2659.260.020.02
Southern MississippiCUSA0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
BuffaloMAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.070.0753.5753.570.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
George MasonCAA0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
OhioMAC0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
OaklandSum0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
RiderMAAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
HarvardIvy0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
WashingtonP120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
IUPUISum0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
BaylorB120.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0738.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0752.9452.940.000.00
Brigham YoungWCC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
WagnerNEC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
AkronMAC0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Kent St.MAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.03-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
NC AshevilleBSth0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
WisconsinB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
VermontAE0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
PennsylvaniaIvy0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0565.5265.520.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0542.3142.31-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
LipscombASun0.040.0437.9337.93-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.040.0462.5062.500.010.01
North FloridaASun0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.040.0434.4834.48-0.01-0.01
XavierA100.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.040.0453.8553.850.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.040.0451.6151.610.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
GramblingSWAC0.020.020.000.00-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
Michigan St.B100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
New HampshireAE0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacNEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
AmericanPat0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityAE0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
BryantNEC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
ButlerA100.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
DenverWAC0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
IndianaB100.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
Kansas St.B120.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
LibertyBSth0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
St. Mary'sWCC0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Texas ArlingtonWAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Utah ValleyGWC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Arizona St.P120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Georgia St.CAA0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
HofstraCAA0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
LehighPat0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
MichiganB100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0285.1985.190.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
BucknellPat0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
CampbellBSth0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
DrexelCAA0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCAA0.020.0216.6716.67-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0228.0028.00-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Utah St.WAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
WyomingMWC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
HoustonCUSA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
RiceCUSA0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Southern MethodistCUSA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Texas El PasoCUSA0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00