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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Louisville

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:17.0
Current RPI:17
Expected SOS:36
Current SOS:36
Current Record:23-8
Expected Record:23-8
Current Conf Record:12-6
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:8-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:39
Expected OOC SOS:168



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-817.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Samford (252.0)SCH86-45W100%0.0
11-17Hartford (292.0)AEH87-52W100%0.0
11-21North Florida (161.0)ASunH89-61W100%0.0
11-24St. Francis NY (276.0)NECH85-41W100%0.0
11-28Saint Louis (206.0)A10N77-57W100%0.0
12-2Michigan St. (12.0)B10A71-67L0%0.0
12-5Grand Canyon (91.0)WACH111-63W100%0.0
12-12Eastern Michigan (113.0)MACH86-53W100%0.0
12-16Kennesaw St. (263.0)ASunH94-57W100%0.0
12-19Western Kentucky (153.0)CUSAH78-56W100%0.0
12-22UMKC (286.0)WACH75-47W100%0.0
12-23Utah Valley (272.0)WACH98-68W100%0.0
12-26Kentucky (11.0)SECA75-73L0%0.0
1-3Wake Forest (159.0)ACCH65-57W100%0.0
1-7North Carolina St. (123.0)ACCA72-77W100%0.0
1-10Clemson (131.0)ACCA66-62L0%0.0
1-14Pittsburgh (53.0)ACCH59-41W100%0.0
1-20Florida St. (82.0)ACCH84-65W100%0.0
1-23Georgia Tech (69.0)ACCA71-75W100%0.0
1-27Virginia Tech (89.0)ACCA83-91W100%0.0
1-30Virginia (3.0)ACCH47-63L0%0.0
2-1North Carolina (5.0)ACCH71-65W100%0.0
2-6Boston College (250.0)ACCH79-47W100%0.0
2-8Duke (20.0)ACCA72-65L0%0.0
2-13Notre Dame (31.0)ACCA71-66L0%0.0
2-17Syracuse (72.0)ACCH72-58W100%0.0
2-20Duke (20.0)ACCH71-64W100%0.0
2-24Pittsburgh (53.0)ACCA60-67W100%0.0
2-27Miami FL (9.0)ACCA73-65L0%0.0
3-1Georgia Tech (69.0)ACCH56-53W100%0.0
3-5Virginia (3.0)ACCA68-46L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Louisville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Louisville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LouisvilleACC25.9925.9975.6575.6513.3413.34
Georgia TechACC3.803.8061.2961.290.860.86
VirginiaACC3.803.8077.4277.422.082.08
DukeACC3.773.7770.9770.971.581.58
PittsburghACC3.773.7768.9768.971.431.43
North CarolinaACC2.292.2984.8584.851.591.59
Virginia TechACC2.242.2459.3859.380.420.42
North Carolina St.ACC2.242.2450.0050.000.000.00
Notre DameACC2.232.2364.5264.520.650.65
Miami FLACC2.232.2377.4277.421.231.23
ClemsonACC2.232.2353.3353.330.150.15
SyracuseACC2.222.2261.2961.290.500.50
Boston CollegeACC2.212.2122.5822.58-1.21-1.21
Florida St.ACC2.192.1961.2961.290.490.49
Wake ForestACC2.182.1836.6736.67-0.58-0.58
North FloridaASun1.771.7765.5265.520.550.55
UMKCWAC1.761.7633.3333.33-0.59-0.59
Utah ValleyWAC1.751.7534.6234.62-0.54-0.54
Grand CanyonWAC1.731.7382.1482.141.111.11
St. Francis NYNEC1.721.7246.6746.67-0.11-0.11
Kennesaw St.ASun1.691.6932.1432.14-0.60-0.60
HartfordAE1.691.6929.0329.03-0.71-0.71
Saint LouisA101.691.6935.4835.48-0.49-0.49
Michigan St.B101.671.6784.8584.851.161.16
Eastern MichiganMAC1.661.6650.0050.000.000.00
KentuckySEC1.661.6675.7675.760.860.86
SamfordSC1.641.6440.0040.00-0.33-0.33
Western KentuckyCUSA1.611.6151.6151.610.050.05
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.230.2318.5218.52-0.14-0.14
New Mexico St.WAC0.200.2067.7467.740.070.07
VCUA100.200.2070.5970.590.080.08
USC UpstateASun0.190.1925.0025.00-0.10-0.10
DuquesneA100.180.1848.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.170.1772.4172.410.080.08
Chicago St.WAC0.170.173.453.45-0.16-0.16
SeattleWAC0.170.1742.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.160.1655.1755.170.020.02
NJITASun0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
LSUSEC0.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
IndianaB100.150.1578.1278.120.090.09
WoffordSC0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
Ohio St.B100.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.130.1367.7467.740.040.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.130.1380.0080.000.080.08
ArkansasSEC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
AlbanyAE0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
George MasonA100.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
FloridaSEC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
LipscombASun0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Central MichiganMAC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.110.1184.3884.380.070.07
DetroitHorz0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.100.1022.2222.22-0.06-0.06
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.1013.7913.79-0.07-0.07
ElonCAA0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
DavidsonA100.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
BryantNEC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Penn St.B100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
OaklandHorz0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
UABCUSA0.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
PurdueB100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
RutgersB100.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
George WashingtonA100.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Long Beach St.BW0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
VillanovaBE0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
TennesseeSEC0.100.1044.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
ToledoMAC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
UTSACUSA0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
MercerSC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
VermontAE0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UMBCAE0.080.0821.8821.88-0.04-0.04
Arizona St.P120.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.080.0844.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
MaineAE0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
New HampshireAE0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0862.8662.860.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
NebraskaB100.070.0747.0647.06-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
ColgatePat0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
UtahP120.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
YaleIvy0.070.0777.7877.780.040.04
UCLAP120.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
WisconsinB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
TulaneAmer0.070.0735.2935.29-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
MarylandB100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0683.8783.870.040.04
AkronMAC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
OhioMAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
FurmanSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
WagnerNEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
LibertyBSth0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
XavierBE0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
BucknellPat0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
CaliforniaP120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0524.2424.24-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
BYUWCC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0322.8622.86-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
IdahoBSky0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
LafayettePat0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0379.4179.410.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01
Iowa St.B120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
LamarSlnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
MississippiSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
TempleAmer0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01