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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Louisville

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:7.2
Current RPI:14
Expected SOS:1
Current SOS:30
Current Record:7-1
Expected Record:23-8
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:7-1
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:3
Expected OOC SOS:2



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
30-11.00.04%
29-21.00.12%
28-31.11.02%
27-41.23.91%
26-51.68.76%
25-62.716.18%
24-74.519.75%
23-87.118.92%
22-910.515.27%
21-1014.29.22%
20-1118.54.51%
19-1223.51.72%
18-1330.20.50%
17-1436.40.07%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Evansville (187.7)MVCH78-47W100%0.0
11-14William & Mary (168.5)CAAH91-58W100%0.0
11-17Long Beach St. (199.9)BWH88-56W100%0.0
11-23Old Dominion (95.5)CUSAN62-68W100%0.0
11-24Wichita St. (33.4)MVCN62-52W100%0.0
11-25Baylor (8.1)B12N66-63L0%0.0
11-30Purdue (28.0)B10H71-64W100%0.0
12-3Grand Canyon (179.1)WACA70-79W100%0.0
12-7Southern Illinois (145.7)MVCH0-097%21.9
12-10Texas Southern (104.8)SWACH0-096%21.7
12-17Eastern Kentucky (157.0)OVCH0-098%24.9
12-21Kentucky (9.3)SECH0-054%1.1
12-28Virginia (8.6)ACCH0-053%0.9
12-31Indiana (20.4)B10N0-059%2.7
1-4Notre Dame (23.3)ACCA0-045%-1.5
1-7Georgia Tech (191.7)ACCA0-090%15.4
1-11Pittsburgh (69.2)ACCH0-090%15.5
1-14Duke (9.9)ACCH0-056%1.7
1-19Clemson (70.5)ACCH0-085%12.7
1-21Florida St. (40.7)ACCA0-061%3.4
1-24Pittsburgh (69.2)ACCA0-078%9.2
1-29North Carolina St. (109.7)ACCH0-092%17.2
2-4Boston College (233.9)ACCA0-095%19.3
2-6Virginia (8.6)ACCA0-033%-5.3
2-11Miami FL (46.9)ACCH0-075%8.2
2-13Syracuse (52.7)ACCA0-058%2.4
2-18Virginia Tech (66.6)ACCH0-084%12.0
2-22North Carolina (5.3)ACCA0-030%-6.4
2-26Syracuse (52.7)ACCH0-077%8.7
3-1Wake Forest (54.7)ACCA0-072%7.1
3-4Notre Dame (23.3)ACCH0-066%4.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Louisville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Louisville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LouisvilleACC28.3826.0485.2973.5820.0312.28
PittsburghACC0.003.7875.0051.460.000.11
Notre DameACC0.003.75100.0079.630.002.22
SyracuseACC0.003.7571.4369.040.001.43
VirginiaACC0.003.7587.5080.050.002.25
North CarolinaACC0.352.3087.5082.350.261.49
DukeACC0.972.2288.8979.530.751.31
Boston CollegeACC0.002.2257.1430.600.00-0.86
Georgia TechACC0.002.2257.1436.910.00-0.58
Virginia TechACC0.002.1985.7164.620.000.64
Florida St.ACC0.002.1987.5066.120.000.71
North Carolina St.ACC0.002.1775.0052.480.000.11
ClemsonACC0.002.1771.4356.250.000.27
Miami FLACC0.002.1775.0067.530.000.76
Wake ForestACC0.002.1775.0055.420.000.23
Wichita St.MVC6.601.7585.7189.704.711.39
Southern IllinoisMVC0.001.7557.1450.710.000.02
EvansvilleMVC6.251.7250.0046.310.00-0.13
PurdueB106.251.7285.7177.854.460.96
IndianaB100.001.6987.5075.610.000.87
Texas SouthernSWAC0.001.6750.0068.390.000.61
Long Beach St.BW6.641.670.0039.59-6.64-0.35
William & MaryCAA6.251.6740.0047.78-1.25-0.07
Old DominionCUSA6.251.6483.3370.404.170.67
BaylorB126.251.64100.0075.786.250.85
Grand CanyonWAC6.251.6450.0060.670.000.35
KentuckySEC0.001.6487.5084.010.001.11
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.001.6150.0052.590.000.08
Penn St.B100.450.2466.6746.420.15-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1971.4358.920.000.03
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1933.3352.84-0.000.01
IowaB100.000.1837.5037.74-0.00-0.05
Michigan St.B100.780.1855.5658.610.090.03
NorthwesternB100.000.1875.0066.170.000.06
BradleyMVC0.000.1642.8627.96-0.00-0.07
DrakeMVC0.000.160.0019.67-0.00-0.10
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1660.0067.760.000.06
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1642.8650.11-0.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1660.0058.590.000.03
Morehead St.OVC0.840.1616.6738.58-0.56-0.04
KansasB120.350.1687.5075.860.260.08
VillanovaBE0.390.16100.0084.840.390.11
WisconsinB100.000.1677.7876.040.000.08
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.450.1483.3377.100.300.08
Alcorn St.SWAC0.450.130.0034.27-0.45-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.000.1371.4354.860.000.01
LSUSEC0.840.1371.4349.170.36-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.390.130.0027.12-0.39-0.06
RiceCUSA0.000.1375.0071.470.000.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.1350.0056.740.000.02
FloridaSEC0.000.1387.5075.240.000.07
James MadisonCAA0.450.1112.5030.68-0.33-0.04
TowsonCAA0.450.1142.8653.19-0.060.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.450.1150.0041.990.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.1120.0022.75-0.00-0.06
SeattleWAC0.000.1116.6739.49-0.00-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.1185.7170.060.000.04
OklahomaB120.000.1171.4348.350.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.000.1185.7183.660.000.07
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1171.4354.310.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.110.0025.23-0.00-0.05
AuburnSEC0.390.1185.7157.450.280.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1157.1452.030.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.1125.0031.41-0.00-0.04
NebraskaB100.000.1157.1444.890.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.1140.0058.82-0.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.1187.5068.610.000.04
YaleIvy0.000.1142.8663.41-0.000.03
MichiganB100.000.1075.0066.460.000.03
MinnesotaB100.000.1087.5068.020.000.04
South CarolinaSEC0.000.10100.0078.850.000.06
TennesseeSEC0.000.1040.0041.12-0.00-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.1012.5029.71-0.00-0.04
IllinoisB100.000.1062.5050.710.000.00
MarylandB100.000.1087.5059.330.000.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0966.6761.550.000.02
ElonCAA0.000.0971.4359.470.000.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0962.5043.220.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0862.5069.130.000.03
Murray St.OVC0.000.0850.0061.240.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.350.0875.0070.180.170.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0825.0027.53-0.00-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0833.3336.74-0.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.080.0035.95-0.00-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0842.8641.51-0.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0887.5062.040.000.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.080.0032.52-0.00-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0837.5035.09-0.00-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.390.0850.0060.620.000.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0875.0054.670.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0871.4351.460.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0871.4368.070.000.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.390.0850.0058.040.000.01
TexasB120.000.0857.1438.680.00-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0871.4356.260.000.01
VCUA100.390.0875.0073.060.200.04
XavierBE0.390.0887.5070.890.290.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.080.0023.69-0.00-0.04
HawaiiBW0.000.0850.0050.450.000.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0887.5059.310.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.390.080.0034.47-0.39-0.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0875.0048.500.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0875.0056.590.000.01
RichmondA100.450.0850.0048.210.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0814.2926.74-0.00-0.04
TCUB120.000.08100.0061.680.000.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0814.2943.58-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.080.0020.75-0.00-0.05
North FloridaASun0.000.0812.5034.79-0.00-0.02
RutgersB100.000.0885.7145.370.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.450.0837.5037.03-0.11-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0866.6766.180.000.03
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0842.8654.90-0.000.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0871.4370.210.000.03
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0875.0070.620.000.03
DuquesneA100.000.0844.4442.03-0.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0650.0041.990.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0650.0040.600.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0650.0044.400.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.520.0633.3348.07-0.17-0.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0650.0064.350.000.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0642.8660.54-0.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0650.0046.410.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0662.5052.330.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0622.2221.23-0.00-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0666.6757.300.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.450.050.0017.13-0.45-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.450.0587.5076.230.330.03
ArizonaP120.000.0575.0068.370.000.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0525.0034.40-0.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.450.0544.4434.65-0.05-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0542.8638.63-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0528.5733.77-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0528.5742.90-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0585.7162.220.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.390.0571.4360.540.170.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0577.7849.900.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0516.6730.34-0.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.740.0557.1471.940.110.02
High PointBSth0.000.0542.8646.48-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0533.3330.44-0.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0522.2241.71-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0528.5723.78-0.00-0.03
UC DavisBW0.000.0550.0045.970.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0550.0054.070.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.050.0033.85-0.00-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0520.0035.47-0.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.050.0034.81-0.00-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0557.1451.790.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0585.7166.190.000.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0520.0037.65-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.450.050.0020.55-0.45-0.03
DavidsonA100.000.0571.4363.170.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0555.5641.690.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.0514.2924.15-0.00-0.03
RadfordBSth0.000.0528.5734.28-0.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0525.0020.78-0.00-0.03
TulaneAmer0.000.0512.5023.93-0.00-0.03
UCLAP120.350.05100.0086.690.350.04
UNLVMWC0.000.0562.5043.800.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.050.0013.46-0.00-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0512.5033.65-0.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0516.6729.80-0.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0562.5040.460.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0525.0047.82-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0528.5731.44-0.00-0.02
ColoradoP120.000.0575.0062.620.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0533.3339.61-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0528.5729.95-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0512.5037.99-0.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0571.4359.880.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0555.5647.890.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0537.5047.37-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.0542.8645.94-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.390.050.0017.61-0.39-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0542.8637.34-0.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0514.2931.28-0.00-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0557.1450.420.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0550.0046.240.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0533.3352.21-0.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0533.3352.11-0.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0575.0066.410.000.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0542.8655.09-0.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0566.6766.860.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.520.0371.4356.250.220.00
HamptonMEAC0.520.0314.2942.67-0.37-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.520.0333.3327.06-0.17-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0018.64-0.00-0.02
AlbanyAE0.450.0342.8661.11-0.060.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0342.8647.11-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.450.0342.8656.04-0.060.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0328.5741.52-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0357.1450.080.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0312.5029.15-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0342.8645.44-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.000.0337.5051.64-0.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0357.1459.280.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0360.0069.120.000.01
ToledoMAC0.450.0337.5047.91-0.11-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.350.0350.0043.560.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.000.0366.6766.340.000.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0325.0038.83-0.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0342.8642.62-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0314.2936.02-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0316.6744.34-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0350.0071.020.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0342.8647.76-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0311.1148.19-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0362.5058.450.000.00
OhioMAC0.000.0383.3371.480.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.390.030.0022.31-0.39-0.01
OregonP120.390.0375.0072.250.200.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0325.0022.93-0.00-0.01
PennIvy0.000.0333.3356.57-0.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0342.8633.23-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0325.0039.59-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0366.6758.060.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0350.0030.350.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.390.0350.0038.050.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0350.0059.920.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.0380.0054.540.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0325.0029.54-0.00-0.01
VMISC0.000.030.0016.78-0.00-0.02
WashingtonP120.350.0357.1452.370.050.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0328.5723.12-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0362.5051.790.000.00
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0074.440.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0337.5044.39-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0371.4373.040.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0387.5082.360.000.02
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0076.630.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0021.22-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0342.8643.60-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.0322.2226.33-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0320.0046.79-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0039.53-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0357.1464.030.000.01
La SalleA100.000.0366.6755.540.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0371.4363.930.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0375.0048.030.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0357.1442.530.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0325.0048.10-0.00-0.00
NJITASun0.390.0350.0049.780.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0048.810.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0337.5033.74-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0342.8645.30-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.000.0362.5056.520.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0055.33-0.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0328.5738.15-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0375.0064.920.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0322.2238.49-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0362.5067.390.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.390.0342.8650.06-0.060.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0385.7174.990.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.030.0016.68-0.00-0.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0350.0071.070.000.01