live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Louisville

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:21.0
Current RPI:21
Expected SOS:19
Current SOS:19
Current Record:24-8
Expected Record:24-8
Current Conf Record:12-7
Expected Conf Record:12-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:26
Expected OOC SOS:133



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-821.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Minnesota (98.0)B10N68-81W100%0.0
11-17Jacksonville St. (304.0)OVCH88-39W100%0.0
11-21Marshall (296.0)CUSAH85-67W100%0.0
11-24Savannah St. (331.0)MEACH87-26W100%0.0
11-26Cleveland St. (127.0)HorzH45-33W100%0.0
12-2Ohio St. (41.0)B10H64-55W100%0.0
12-5FIU (217.0)CUSAH82-57W100%0.0
12-9Indiana (61.0)B10N94-74W100%0.0
12-14UNC Wilmington (145.0)CAAH68-57W100%0.0
12-20Western Kentucky (117.0)CUSAA67-76W100%0.0
12-23Cal St. Northridge (282.0)BWH80-55W100%0.0
12-27Kentucky (1.0)SECH50-58L0%0.0
12-30Long Beach St. (111.0)BWH63-48W100%0.0
1-4Wake Forest (150.0)ACCA76-85W100%0.0
1-7Clemson (106.0)ACCH58-52W100%0.0
1-10North Carolina (11.0)ACCA72-71L0%0.0
1-13Virginia Tech (228.0)ACCH78-63W100%0.0
1-17Duke (6.0)ACCH52-63L0%0.0
1-25Pittsburgh (76.0)ACCA68-80W100%0.0
1-28Boston College (165.0)ACCA72-81W100%0.0
1-31North Carolina (11.0)ACCH78-68W100%0.0
2-3Miami FL (65.0)ACCA55-63W100%0.0
2-7Virginia (7.0)ACCA52-47L0%0.0
2-11Pittsburgh (76.0)ACCH69-56W100%0.0
2-14North Carolina St. (39.0)ACCH65-74L0%0.0
2-18Syracuse (69.0)ACCA69-59L0%0.0
2-21Miami FL (65.0)ACCH55-53W100%0.0
2-23Georgia Tech (153.0)ACCA51-52W100%0.0
2-28Florida St. (110.0)ACCA59-81W100%0.0
3-4Notre Dame (16.0)ACCH59-71L0%0.0
3-7Virginia (7.0)ACCH59-57W100%0.0
3-12North Carolina (11.0)ACCN70-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Louisville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Louisville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LouisvilleACC26.0626.0671.2371.2311.0711.07
North CarolinaACC5.295.2968.7568.751.981.98
VirginiaACC3.723.7293.3393.333.223.22
Miami FLACC3.683.6867.7467.741.301.30
PittsburghACC3.653.6560.0060.000.730.73
North Carolina St.ACC2.232.2359.3859.380.420.42
Notre DameACC2.232.2384.8584.851.551.55
Boston CollegeACC2.232.2341.9441.94-0.36-0.36
Florida St.ACC2.212.2153.1253.120.140.14
Virginia TechACC2.212.2134.3834.38-0.69-0.69
DukeACC2.182.1887.5087.501.631.63
Wake ForestACC2.162.1641.9441.94-0.35-0.35
Georgia TechACC2.162.1640.0040.00-0.43-0.43
SyracuseACC2.142.1456.6756.670.280.28
ClemsonACC2.112.1153.3353.330.140.14
MarshallCUSA1.771.7731.0331.03-0.67-0.67
Ohio St.B101.731.7371.8871.880.750.75
Western KentuckyCUSA1.721.7262.0762.070.410.41
Savannah St.MEAC1.711.7125.0025.00-0.86-0.86
IndianaB101.711.7162.5062.500.430.43
MinnesotaB101.711.7154.8454.840.170.17
Cleveland St.Horz1.691.6955.1755.170.170.17
FIUCUSA1.671.6746.6746.67-0.11-0.11
Jacksonville St.OVC1.641.6435.7135.71-0.47-0.47
Long Beach St.BW1.641.6446.6746.67-0.11-0.11
KentuckySEC1.631.63100.00100.001.631.63
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.611.6123.3323.33-0.86-0.86
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.591.5958.6258.620.270.27
CharlotteCUSA0.250.2543.7543.75-0.03-0.03
FloridaSEC0.230.2348.4848.48-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.210.2165.6265.620.070.07
UABCUSA0.200.2054.5554.550.020.02
RutgersB100.190.1931.2531.25-0.07-0.07
PurdueB100.190.1963.6463.640.050.05
HawaiiBW0.170.1760.6160.610.040.04
Penn St.B100.170.1752.9452.940.010.01
MarylandB100.170.1781.8281.820.110.11
Michigan St.B100.170.1767.6567.650.060.06
Old DominionCUSA0.160.1677.4277.420.090.09
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.150.1525.9325.93-0.07-0.07
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.150.1560.7160.710.030.03
DavidsonA100.140.1476.6776.670.080.08
ProvidenceBE0.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.130.1375.0075.000.060.06
OaklandHorz0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.130.1324.1424.14-0.07-0.07
UC DavisBW0.130.1379.3179.310.070.07
College of CharlestonCAA0.130.1327.2727.27-0.06-0.06
James MadisonCAA0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.120.1275.8675.860.060.06
MichiganB100.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.120.1291.1891.180.100.10
IllinoisB100.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.120.1226.6726.67-0.05-0.05
UCLAP120.120.1260.6160.610.020.02
WinthropBSth0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.106.906.90-0.09-0.09
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.1010.3410.34-0.08-0.08
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1052.9452.940.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
UTSACUSA0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
Kansas St.B120.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.100.1040.7440.74-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
DrexelCAA0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.100.1073.3373.330.050.05
San Diego St.MWC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
St. John'sBE0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
SamfordSC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
ButlerBE0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
BelmontOVC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
NevadaMWC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
ElonCAA0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
LSUSEC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
VCUA100.070.0774.2974.290.040.04
HowardMEAC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0765.5265.520.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.070.0758.8258.820.010.01
HarvardIvy0.070.0774.0774.070.040.04
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0741.1841.18-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.050.0583.3383.330.040.04
HamptonMEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0586.6786.670.040.04
USC UpstateASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
LibertyBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
ToledoMAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
VMISC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
SeattleWAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
BryantNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
DuquesneA100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
HartfordAE0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
FurmanSC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0362.9662.960.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
CornellIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
IPFWSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
VillanovaBE0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
WashingtonP120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
BucknellPat0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
MaineAE0.020.0210.0010.00-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
USCP120.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.020.0242.3142.31-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0218.7518.75-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0230.7730.77-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0290.9190.910.020.02
RadfordBSth0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01
StanfordP120.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
TempleAmer0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
UCFAmer0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0244.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.020.000.00-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
NavyPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00