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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Louisville

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:19.0
Current RPI:19
Expected SOS:80
Current SOS:80
Current Record:29-5
Expected Record:29-5
Current Conf Record:18-3
Expected Conf Record:18-3
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:42
Expected OOC SOS:149



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-519.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9College of Charleston (242.0)CAAH70-48W100%0.0
11-12Hofstra (277.0)CAAH97-69W100%0.0
11-15Cornell (334.0)IvyH99-54W100%0.0
11-19Hartford (234.0)AEH87-48W100%0.0
11-23Fairfield (289.0)MAACN57-71W100%0.0
11-24North Carolina (25.0)ACCN84-93L0%0.0
11-29Southern Miss (33.0)CUSAH69-38W100%0.0
12-4UMKC (248.0)WACH90-62W100%0.0
12-7Louisiana Lafayette (90.0)SBH113-74W100%0.0
12-14Western Kentucky (125.0)SBH79-63W100%0.0
12-17Missouri St. (85.0)MVCH90-60W100%0.0
12-21FIU (202.0)CUSAA56-85W100%0.0
12-28Kentucky (17.0)SECA73-66L0%0.0
12-31UCF (220.0)AmerA65-90W100%0.0
1-4Rutgers (192.0)AmerA76-83W100%0.0
1-9Memphis (37.0)AmerH67-73L0%0.0
1-12SMU (53.0)AmerH71-63W100%0.0
1-16Houston (143.0)AmerH91-52W100%0.0
1-18Connecticut (22.0)AmerA64-76W100%0.0
1-22South Florida (232.0)AmerA47-86W100%0.0
1-30Cincinnati (21.0)AmerH66-69L0%0.0
2-1UCF (220.0)AmerH87-70W100%0.0
2-5Houston (143.0)AmerA62-77W100%0.0
2-14Temple (175.0)AmerA58-82W100%0.0
2-16Rutgers (192.0)AmerH102-54W100%0.0
2-18South Florida (232.0)AmerH80-54W100%0.0
2-22Cincinnati (21.0)AmerA57-58W100%0.0
2-27Temple (175.0)AmerH88-66W100%0.0
3-1Memphis (37.0)AmerA72-66L0%0.0
3-5SMU (53.0)AmerA71-84W100%0.0
3-8Connecticut (22.0)AmerH81-48W100%0.0
3-13Rutgers (192.0)AmerN92-31W100%0.0
3-14Houston (143.0)AmerN94-65W100%0.0
3-15Connecticut (22.0)AmerN71-61W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Louisville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Louisville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LouisvilleAmer26.4826.4883.9783.9717.9917.99
ConnecticutAmer5.345.3483.8783.873.623.62
HoustonAmer5.315.3156.6756.670.710.71
RutgersAmer5.295.2937.9337.93-1.28-1.28
CincinnatiAmer3.933.9383.8783.872.662.66
SMUAmer3.903.9076.6776.672.082.08
UCFAmer3.903.9040.7440.74-0.72-0.72
South FloridaAmer3.883.8840.0040.00-0.78-0.78
MemphisAmer3.883.8868.9768.971.471.47
TempleAmer3.863.8631.0331.03-1.47-1.47
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.611.6166.6766.670.540.54
HofstraCAA1.591.5931.2531.25-0.59-0.59
Western KentuckySB1.571.5763.3363.330.420.42
Southern MissCUSA1.521.5283.3383.331.011.01
HartfordAE1.521.5253.1253.120.090.09
College of CharlestonCAA1.521.5243.3343.33-0.20-0.20
FIUCUSA1.491.4948.1548.15-0.06-0.06
KentuckySEC1.491.4969.7069.700.590.59
FairfieldMAAC1.491.4922.5822.58-0.82-0.82
North CarolinaACC1.491.4970.9770.970.630.63
CornellIvy1.471.473.853.85-1.36-1.36
Missouri St.MVC1.471.4763.3363.330.390.39
UMKCWAC1.471.4735.7135.71-0.42-0.42
YaleIvy0.210.2151.8551.850.010.01
Texas St.SB0.210.2120.6920.69-0.12-0.12
UABCUSA0.190.1955.1755.170.020.02
DrexelCAA0.180.1853.3353.330.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.180.1861.2961.290.040.04
FloridaSEC0.180.1894.1294.120.160.16
Georgia St.SB0.170.1774.1974.190.080.08
Arkansas Little RockSB0.170.1743.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.160.1625.8125.81-0.08-0.08
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.160.1623.3323.33-0.09-0.09
Texas A&MSEC0.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
SienaMAAC0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.140.1419.3519.35-0.09-0.09
Florida A&MMEAC0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.140.1431.0331.03-0.05-0.05
StanfordP120.130.1363.6463.640.040.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
PrincetonIvy0.120.1270.3770.370.050.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.120.1216.6716.67-0.08-0.08
StetsonASun0.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
HarvardIvy0.120.1286.2186.210.090.09
South AlabamaSB0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.120.1217.8617.86-0.08-0.08
UTSACUSA0.120.1222.2222.22-0.06-0.06
Loyola MDPat0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.110.1134.3834.38-0.04-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
DelawareCAA0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
ArkansasSEC0.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
LSUSEC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
DetroitHorz0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
MaineAE0.110.1117.8617.86-0.07-0.07
PennIvy0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
TulaneCUSA0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.0934.6234.62-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.090.0931.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.090.09100.00100.000.090.09
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Stony BrookAE0.090.0968.7568.750.040.04
BradleyMVC0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.090.0982.3582.350.060.06
James MadisonCAA0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.090.0975.0075.000.050.05
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
PittsburghACC0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
BelmontOVC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
MarylandACC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
WashingtonP120.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.080.0838.4638.46-0.02-0.02
IdahoWAC0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Notre DameACC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
ClemsonACC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
TexasB120.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
La SalleA100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
RichmondA100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0716.1316.13-0.05-0.05
MississippiSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0717.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0753.5753.570.000.00
Texas TechB120.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0670.5970.590.030.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
BrownIvy0.050.0551.8551.850.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0546.1546.15-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
SeattleWAC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0546.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
DavidsonSC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UICHorz0.050.0513.7913.79-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.2121.21-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
BaylorB120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.040.0476.4776.470.020.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.040.0430.0030.00-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.040.0467.6567.650.020.02
AlbanyAE0.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
Appalachian St.SC0.040.0419.2319.23-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.040.0432.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.040.0434.4834.48-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
New HampshireAE0.040.0417.2417.24-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.040.0481.8281.820.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.040.0483.8783.870.030.03
UMBCAE0.040.0427.5927.59-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
VermontAE0.040.0466.6766.670.010.01
XavierBE0.040.0462.5062.500.010.01
ColgatePat0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
CreightonBE0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0214.8114.81-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0214.8114.81-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0278.5778.570.010.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0287.1087.100.020.02
The CitadelSC0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.020.0236.0036.00-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00