The results on this page EXCLUDE CONFERNCE TOURNAMENT FORECASTS and are UPDATED DAILY

New! For the weekly updated Louisville page with conference tournament forecasts, click here.

Through games of Feb 7, 2010.

Louisville

Conference:		BE
Expected RPI:		36.4
Current RPI:		42
Expected SOS:		3
Current SOS:		5
Current Record:		15-8
Expected Record:		19-12
Current Conf Record:		6-4
Expected Conf Record:		10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:		1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:		1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:		6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:		10-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:		2-0
Current OOC Record:		9-4
Expected OOC Record:		9-4
Expected OOC RPI:		43
Expected OOC SOS:		20

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
23-8	10.3	0.26%
22-9	14.4	3.13%
21-10	20.2	12.62%
20-11	28.1	25.93%
19-12	38.0	30.09%
18-13	48.6	19.39%
17-14	58.7	7.10%
16-15	69.9	1.39%
15-16	84.0	0.08%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-17	Arkansas (126.3)	SEC	N	96-66	W	100%	0.0
11-21	East Tennessee St. (138.0)	ASun	H	69-56	W	100%	0.0
11-22	Morgan St. (106.3)	MEAC	H	90-81	W	100%	0.0
11-23	Appalachian St. (134.5)	SC	H	80-53	W	100%	0.0
11-28	Nevada Las Vegas (32.4)	MWC	A	71-76	L	0%	0.0
12-2	Stetson (331.2)	ASun	H	80-48	W	100%	0.0
12-5	Charlotte (47.1)	A10	H	65-87	L	0%	0.0
12-12	Western Carolina (101.2)	SC	H	83-91	L	0%	0.0
12-16	Oral Roberts (122.0)	Sum	H	94-57	W	100%	0.0
12-19	Western Kentucky (159.1)	SB	H	102-75	W	100%	0.0
12-23	Louisiana Lafayette (203.7)	SB	H	84-69	W	100%	0.0
12-27	Radford (173.0)	BSth	H	79-53	W	100%	0.0
12-30	South Florida (64.9)	BE	H	73-52	W	100%	0.0
1-2	Kentucky (6.1)	SEC	A	62-71	L	0%	0.0
1-6	Providence (98.2)	BE	A	92-70	W	100%	0.0
1-9	St. John's (101.2)	BE	H	75-68	W	100%	0.0
1-11	Villanova (6.2)	BE	H	84-92	L	0%	0.0
1-16	Pittsburgh (26.0)	BE	A	77-82	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Seton Hall (72.6)	BE	A	77-80	L	0%	0.0
1-24	Cincinnati (61.1)	BE	H	68-60	W	100%	0.0
1-30	West Virginia (3.9)	BE	A	74-77	L	0%	0.0
2-1	Connecticut (54.2)	BE	H	82-69	W	100%	0.0
2-6	Rutgers (161.8)	BE	H	76-60	W	100%	0.0
2-11	St. John's (101.2)	BE	A	0-0		64%	3.9
2-14	Syracuse (3.0)	BE	A	0-0		17%	-10.2
2-17	Notre Dame (75.1)	BE	H	0-0		80%	9.3
2-20	DePaul (180.2)	BE	A	0-0		82%	9.9
2-23	Georgetown (8.9)	BE	H	0-0		60%	2.7
2-28	Connecticut (54.2)	BE	A	0-0		46%	-1.0
3-2	Marquette (55.4)	BE	A	0-0		32%	-5.0
3-6	Syracuse (3.0)	BE	H	0-0		42%	-2.2

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Sorted by , Current Weight, End-Of-Season Weight, Current Help Index, Expected Help Index, and then Alphabetically.

Weights are percentages.

Louisville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Louisville.

Help Ind is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

BY CURRENT WEIGHT: (top)

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Help	Exp Help
Louisville	BE	26.12	26.00	58.62	58.54	4.50	4.44
Pittsburgh	BE	2.52	2.18	72.73	69.83	1.14	0.86
Cincinnati	BE	2.51	2.17	63.64	57.45	0.68	0.32
Seton Hall	BE	2.51	2.15	55.00	55.95	0.25	0.26
St. John's	BE	2.51	3.71	57.14	51.48	0.36	0.11
Connecticut	BE	2.46	3.73	63.64	58.53	0.67	0.64
South Florida	BE	2.46	2.15	68.18	64.32	0.90	0.61
Rutgers	BE	2.46	2.15	50.00	44.37	0.00	-0.24
East Tennessee St.	ASun	2.42	1.75	52.17	55.60	0.11	0.20
West Virginia	BE	2.42	2.15	85.71	81.58	1.73	1.36
Appalachian St.	SC	2.42	1.75	57.89	62.38	0.38	0.43
Providence	BE	2.41	2.17	54.55	48.23	0.22	-0.08
Arkansas	SEC	2.37	1.72	54.55	50.09	0.22	0.00
Villanova	BE	2.32	2.15	90.48	81.91	1.88	1.37
Morgan St.	MEAC	2.32	1.69	73.91	76.11	1.11	0.88
Western Carolina	SC	2.28	1.67	70.00	68.38	0.91	0.61
Kentucky	SEC	2.27	1.69	95.45	88.29	2.06	1.29
Stetson	ASun	2.26	1.67	15.00	16.25	-1.59	-1.13
Western Kentucky	SB	2.23	1.64	56.52	57.86	0.29	0.26
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	2.22	1.64	50.00	50.47	0.00	0.02
Charlotte	A10	2.17	1.61	77.27	70.75	1.19	0.67
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	2.17	1.61	80.95	80.22	1.35	0.97
Oral Roberts	Sum	2.17	1.61	56.52	60.57	0.28	0.34
Radford	BSth	2.17	1.61	55.00	58.39	0.22	0.27
Notre Dame	BE	0.43	2.17	70.83	64.85	0.18	0.65
Georgetown	BE	0.39	2.17	77.27	74.54	0.21	1.07
Syracuse	BE	0.34	3.71	95.83	92.83	0.31	3.18
Marquette	BE	0.34	2.15	65.22	66.04	0.10	0.69
DePaul	BE	0.29	2.17	34.78	34.43	-0.09	-0.68
Campbell	ASun	0.25	0.17	57.14	58.76	0.04	0.03
NC Asheville	BSth	0.25	0.14	33.33	37.71	-0.08	-0.03
Mercer	ASun	0.24	0.17	42.86	42.46	-0.03	-0.03
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.20	0.12	20.00	23.58	-0.12	-0.06
Winthrop	BSth	0.20	0.14	52.38	54.80	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.20	0.14	50.00	49.78	0.00	-0.00
Temple	A10	0.20	0.16	79.17	77.57	0.12	0.09
Duke	ACC	0.20	0.19	82.61	82.33	0.13	0.12
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.19	0.14	29.17	28.85	-0.08	-0.06
Florida	SEC	0.19	0.19	73.91	67.72	0.09	0.07
Texas	B12	0.19	0.13	82.61	78.76	0.13	0.08
Mississippi	SEC	0.19	0.13	73.91	72.52	0.09	0.06
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.19	0.19	39.13	35.38	-0.04	-0.05
Lipscomb	ASun	0.19	0.14	52.17	56.48	0.01	0.02
Georgia Southern	SC	0.16	0.12	17.39	20.11	-0.10	-0.07
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.16	0.09	21.05	22.43	-0.09	-0.05
Davidson	SC	0.15	0.14	47.62	50.81	-0.01	0.00
Elon	SC	0.15	0.14	19.05	23.26	-0.09	-0.08
Wofford	SC	0.15	0.08	66.67	67.94	0.05	0.03
Chattanooga	SC	0.15	0.14	47.83	46.11	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.15	0.11	23.81	28.38	-0.08	-0.05
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.15	0.14	43.48	39.42	-0.02	-0.03
Long Island	NEC	0.15	0.11	39.13	41.53	-0.03	-0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.15	0.14	18.18	21.04	-0.09	-0.08
Massachusetts	A10	0.15	0.08	31.82	31.64	-0.05	-0.03
Fordham	A10	0.15	0.11	9.52	8.87	-0.12	-0.09
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.14	0.14	45.45	47.48	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.14	0.08	70.59	72.98	0.06	0.04
Drexel	CAA	0.14	0.08	56.00	55.91	0.02	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.14	0.13	47.62	45.44	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.14	0.13	45.83	47.77	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	ASun	0.14	0.11	60.00	63.83	0.03	0.03
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.14	0.08	52.17	54.94	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.14	0.08	47.62	50.38	-0.01	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.14	0.13	69.57	68.48	0.05	0.05
South Carolina	SEC	0.14	0.13	59.09	54.41	0.03	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.14	0.08	82.61	78.56	0.09	0.05
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.14	0.16	76.19	73.20	0.07	0.07
Furman	SC	0.11	0.06	42.86	41.05	-0.02	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.11	0.12	21.74	24.84	-0.06	-0.06
Samford	SC	0.11	0.12	28.57	31.03	-0.05	-0.04
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.08	72.73	71.91	0.05	0.04
The Citadel	SC	0.10	0.08	45.45	45.80	-0.01	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.10	0.09	40.00	40.09	-0.02	-0.02
High Point	BSth	0.10	0.06	42.86	44.37	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.10	0.06	47.83	44.73	-0.00	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.10	0.06	55.56	55.85	0.01	0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.10	0.09	30.43	32.32	-0.04	-0.03
Cornell	Ivy	0.10	0.13	85.71	85.57	0.07	0.10
George Mason	CAA	0.10	0.06	62.50	57.74	0.03	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.10	0.13	66.67	64.02	0.03	0.04
Binghamton	AE	0.10	0.05	39.13	38.63	-0.02	-0.01
Hartford	AE	0.10	0.05	30.43	32.48	-0.04	-0.02
Monmouth	NEC	0.10	0.05	41.67	42.69	-0.02	-0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.10	0.05	22.22	27.56	-0.06	-0.02
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.10	0.05	58.33	58.93	0.02	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.10	0.08	68.18	66.65	0.04	0.03
Brigham Young	MWC	0.10	0.06	87.50	87.42	0.07	0.04
Centenary	Sum	0.10	0.11	27.27	27.20	-0.04	-0.05
College of Charleston	SC	0.10	0.08	66.67	65.62	0.03	0.03
Denver	SB	0.10	0.09	60.87	59.58	0.02	0.02
Florida International	SB	0.10	0.08	24.00	23.74	-0.05	-0.04
Jacksonville	ASun	0.10	0.11	56.52	59.89	0.01	0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.10	0.09	36.36	36.18	-0.03	-0.02
New Orleans	SB	0.10	0.06	22.73	22.86	-0.05	-0.03
North Florida	ASun	0.10	0.17	43.48	45.31	-0.01	-0.02
North Texas	SB	0.10	0.09	61.90	63.69	0.02	0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.10	0.08	31.82	29.58	-0.04	-0.03
Brown	Ivy	0.10	0.08	23.81	27.31	-0.05	-0.04
Bryant	ind	0.10	0.08	0.00	4.18	-0.10	-0.07
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.10	0.05	45.45	46.81	-0.01	-0.00
La Salle	A10	0.10	0.05	47.83	46.36	-0.00	-0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.10	0.08	42.86	45.66	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.10	0.05	71.43	67.85	0.04	0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.10	0.05	45.00	43.95	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.10	0.13	40.00	42.64	-0.02	-0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.09	0.08	11.11	20.93	-0.07	-0.04
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.09	0.05	50.00	51.56	0.00	0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.09	0.08	87.50	83.52	0.07	0.06
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.09	0.05	54.55	54.05	0.01	0.00
Southern Utah	Sum	0.09	0.08	19.05	20.55	-0.06	-0.05
Alabama	SEC	0.09	0.10	56.52	54.14	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.09	0.08	45.45	42.62	-0.01	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.09	0.10	47.62	44.47	-0.00	-0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.09	0.13	27.27	31.08	-0.04	-0.05
George Washington	A10	0.09	0.08	54.55	55.07	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.09	0.05	40.91	34.84	-0.02	-0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.09	0.08	72.00	70.73	0.04	0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.09	0.08	69.57	70.29	0.04	0.03
Miami OH	MAC	0.09	0.05	43.48	47.68	-0.01	-0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.09	0.10	56.52	51.96	0.01	0.00
Rider	MAAC	0.09	0.05	52.00	49.34	0.00	-0.00
Vermont	AE	0.09	0.05	68.00	67.20	0.03	0.02
Xavier	A10	0.09	0.11	69.57	71.43	0.04	0.05
Yale	Ivy	0.09	0.05	36.36	38.12	-0.03	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.09	0.05	76.19	72.73	0.05	0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.09	0.07	47.06	50.65	-0.01	0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.09	0.05	65.22	64.71	0.03	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.09	0.05	31.82	42.24	-0.03	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.09	0.05	68.18	67.88	0.03	0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.09	0.11	47.83	47.55	-0.00	-0.01
Stanford	P10	0.09	0.05	43.48	43.10	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.09	0.16	81.82	75.66	0.06	0.08
Virginia	ACC	0.09	0.05	66.67	57.29	0.03	0.01
Winston Salem St.	ind	0.09	0.08	29.41	29.63	-0.04	-0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.09	0.05	19.05	22.94	-0.06	-0.03
Indiana St.	MVC	0.09	0.05	56.52	54.46	0.01	0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.09	0.05	42.86	45.31	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.09	0.08	86.96	85.47	0.07	0.05
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.05	33.33	33.96	-0.03	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.09	0.11	66.67	69.41	0.03	0.04
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.05	50.00	50.91	0.00	0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.11	57.14	57.10	0.01	0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.03	52.17	50.21	0.00	0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.03	69.57	66.88	0.02	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.05	0.06	80.95	82.07	0.03	0.04
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.06	73.91	69.49	0.02	0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.03	43.48	39.98	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.03	95.65	91.32	0.05	0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.03	47.62	44.73	-0.00	-0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.09	42.86	41.51	-0.01	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	26.32	31.51	-0.02	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.03	68.18	62.73	0.02	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.09	12.50	15.31	-0.04	-0.06
Savannah St.	ind	0.05	0.09	30.00	31.19	-0.02	-0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	81.82	72.57	0.03	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.06	35.00	30.59	-0.01	-0.02
Arizona	P10	0.05	0.03	52.17	53.65	0.00	0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.06	59.09	52.85	0.01	0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.03	26.09	26.91	-0.02	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.03	33.33	33.00	-0.02	-0.01
Hawaii	WAC	0.05	0.03	36.36	33.80	-0.01	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.03	26.09	31.05	-0.02	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.03	81.82	79.60	0.03	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.03	66.67	65.54	0.02	0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.05	0.03	57.14	60.54	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.03	75.00	73.72	0.02	0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.03	16.67	19.94	-0.03	-0.02
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.03	61.90	65.68	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.03	86.36	81.80	0.04	0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.08	39.13	36.57	-0.01	-0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.06	66.67	67.74	0.02	0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.03	33.33	34.27	-0.02	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	83.33	81.25	0.03	0.03
Southern California	P10	0.05	0.03	60.87	59.61	0.01	0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.05	68.18	68.72	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.03	72.73	66.85	0.02	0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.06	40.91	38.27	-0.01	-0.01
Utah	MWC	0.05	0.06	45.45	44.32	-0.00	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	61.90	65.04	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.06	33.33	30.72	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	39.38	-0.02	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	0.00	5.15	-0.05	-0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	52.17	55.04	0.00	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.03	52.17	48.76	0.00	-0.00
Boston University	AE	0.05	0.05	54.17	57.70	0.00	0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.05	37.50	39.23	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.05	0.03	22.73	21.40	-0.03	-0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	52.29	0.00	0.00
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.03	20.00	21.94	-0.03	-0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	72.73	68.13	0.02	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.03	81.82	83.61	0.03	0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.08	73.68	75.41	0.02	0.04
Maine	AE	0.05	0.10	63.64	61.86	0.01	0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.03	4.17	4.73	-0.04	-0.02
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.08	45.45	44.00	-0.00	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	22.73	27.28	-0.03	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	66.67	64.62	0.02	0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.05	39.13	47.65	-0.01	-0.00
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.03	35.00	38.23	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.03	66.67	68.11	0.02	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.96	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.03	59.09	51.13	0.01	0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.05	72.00	73.54	0.02	0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.03	47.06	53.78	-0.00	0.00
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.03	70.59	70.98	0.02	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	86.36	81.50	0.03	0.03
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	75.00	71.23	0.02	0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.03	33.33	33.43	-0.02	-0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.03	31.82	32.31	-0.02	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	61.90	56.12	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.03	68.42	67.04	0.02	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.03	45.00	54.19	-0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.03	8.70	10.09	-0.04	-0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	79.17	77.30	0.03	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	28.57	27.72	-0.02	-0.01
Albany	AE	0.05	0.08	23.08	25.77	-0.02	-0.04
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.05	0.03	39.13	43.30	-0.01	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.03	22.73	22.60	-0.02	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.02	25.00	26.64	-0.02	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.05	0.08	65.22	67.00	0.01	0.03
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.02	33.33	35.33	-0.02	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.08	27.27	29.40	-0.02	-0.03
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.05	0.02	8.70	11.46	-0.04	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.02	63.64	64.66	0.01	0.01
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.03	73.91	70.60	0.02	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.05	38.10	38.08	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	23.81	27.28	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	34.68	-0.02	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	52.94	56.30	0.00	0.01
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.02	22.73	23.47	-0.02	-0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.03	77.27	70.93	0.02	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.03	76.19	71.14	0.02	0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.05	30.00	31.79	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.99	0.00	0.00
American	Pat	0.00	0.05	30.43	32.39	-0.00	-0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.00	0.02	55.00	53.61	0.00	0.00
Butler	Horz	0.00	0.03	83.33	83.91	0.00	0.02
California	P10	0.00	0.05	65.22	68.42	0.00	0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.00	0.08	40.00	39.13	-0.00	-0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.00	0.03	56.52	58.43	0.00	0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.00	0.03	23.53	25.88	-0.00	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.00	0.03	47.62	50.82	-0.00	0.00
Idaho St.	BSky	0.00	0.03	19.05	24.00	-0.00	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.00	0.03	22.73	22.57	-0.00	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.00	0.03	60.87	59.16	0.00	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.00	0.03	47.83	44.39	-0.00	-0.00
Memphis	CUSA	0.00	0.05	69.57	69.99	0.00	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.00	0.03	58.33	54.32	0.00	0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.00	0.03	91.30	88.21	0.00	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.00	0.03	69.57	67.93	0.00	0.01
South Dakota	GWC	0.00	0.03	50.00	60.53	0.00	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.00	0.05	43.48	43.78	-0.00	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.00	0.03	30.43	30.27	-0.00	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.00	0.03	45.45	44.03	-0.00	-0.00
Texas St.	Slnd	0.00	0.03	36.84	36.82	-0.00	-0.01
UCLA	P10	0.00	0.03	47.83	43.79	-0.00	-0.00
Washington	P10	0.00	0.03	69.57	68.86	0.00	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.00	0.03	78.26	78.92	0.00	0.02

BY END-OF-SEASON WEIGHT: (top)

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Help	Exp Help
Louisville	BE	26.12	26.00	58.62	58.54	4.50	4.44
Connecticut	BE	2.46	3.73	63.64	58.53	0.67	0.64
Syracuse	BE	0.34	3.71	95.83	92.83	0.31	3.18
St. John's	BE	2.51	3.71	57.14	51.48	0.36	0.11
Pittsburgh	BE	2.52	2.18	72.73	69.83	1.14	0.86
DePaul	BE	0.29	2.17	34.78	34.43	-0.09	-0.68
Notre Dame	BE	0.43	2.17	70.83	64.85	0.18	0.65
Providence	BE	2.41	2.17	54.55	48.23	0.22	-0.08
Cincinnati	BE	2.51	2.17	63.64	57.45	0.68	0.32
Georgetown	BE	0.39	2.17	77.27	74.54	0.21	1.07
Rutgers	BE	2.46	2.15	50.00	44.37	0.00	-0.24
Villanova	BE	2.32	2.15	90.48	81.91	1.88	1.37
West Virginia	BE	2.42	2.15	85.71	81.58	1.73	1.36
Marquette	BE	0.34	2.15	65.22	66.04	0.10	0.69
South Florida	BE	2.46	2.15	68.18	64.32	0.90	0.61
Seton Hall	BE	2.51	2.15	55.00	55.95	0.25	0.26
East Tennessee St.	ASun	2.42	1.75	52.17	55.60	0.11	0.20
Appalachian St.	SC	2.42	1.75	57.89	62.38	0.38	0.43
Arkansas	SEC	2.37	1.72	54.55	50.09	0.22	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	2.32	1.69	73.91	76.11	1.11	0.88
Kentucky	SEC	2.27	1.69	95.45	88.29	2.06	1.29
Western Carolina	SC	2.28	1.67	70.00	68.38	0.91	0.61
Stetson	ASun	2.26	1.67	15.00	16.25	-1.59	-1.13
Western Kentucky	SB	2.23	1.64	56.52	57.86	0.29	0.26
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	2.22	1.64	50.00	50.47	0.00	0.02
Charlotte	A10	2.17	1.61	77.27	70.75	1.19	0.67
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	2.17	1.61	80.95	80.22	1.35	0.97
Oral Roberts	Sum	2.17	1.61	56.52	60.57	0.28	0.34
Radford	BSth	2.17	1.61	55.00	58.39	0.22	0.27
Duke	ACC	0.20	0.19	82.61	82.33	0.13	0.12
Florida	SEC	0.19	0.19	73.91	67.72	0.09	0.07
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.19	0.19	39.13	35.38	-0.04	-0.05
Campbell	ASun	0.25	0.17	57.14	58.76	0.04	0.03
Mercer	ASun	0.24	0.17	42.86	42.46	-0.03	-0.03
North Florida	ASun	0.10	0.17	43.48	45.31	-0.01	-0.02
Temple	A10	0.20	0.16	79.17	77.57	0.12	0.09
Tennessee	SEC	0.09	0.16	81.82	75.66	0.06	0.08
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.14	0.16	76.19	73.20	0.07	0.07
Winthrop	BSth	0.20	0.14	52.38	54.80	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.15	0.14	47.83	46.11	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	SC	0.15	0.14	47.62	50.81	-0.01	0.00
Elon	SC	0.15	0.14	19.05	23.26	-0.09	-0.08
NC Asheville	BSth	0.25	0.14	33.33	37.71	-0.08	-0.03
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.15	0.14	18.18	21.04	-0.09	-0.08
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.19	0.14	29.17	28.85	-0.08	-0.06
Lipscomb	ASun	0.19	0.14	52.17	56.48	0.01	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.15	0.14	43.48	39.42	-0.02	-0.03
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.14	0.14	45.45	47.48	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.20	0.14	50.00	49.78	0.00	-0.00
Cornell	Ivy	0.10	0.13	85.71	85.57	0.07	0.10
Texas	B12	0.19	0.13	82.61	78.76	0.13	0.08
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.10	0.13	40.00	42.64	-0.02	-0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.14	0.13	45.83	47.77	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.14	0.13	47.62	45.44	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.19	0.13	73.91	72.52	0.09	0.06
Robert Morris	NEC	0.10	0.13	66.67	64.02	0.03	0.04
Colgate	Pat	0.09	0.13	27.27	31.08	-0.04	-0.05
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.14	0.13	69.57	68.48	0.05	0.05
South Carolina	SEC	0.14	0.13	59.09	54.41	0.03	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.20	0.12	20.00	23.58	-0.12	-0.06
Georgia Southern	SC	0.16	0.12	17.39	20.11	-0.10	-0.07
NC Greensboro	SC	0.11	0.12	21.74	24.84	-0.06	-0.06
Samford	SC	0.11	0.12	28.57	31.03	-0.05	-0.04
Belmont	ASun	0.14	0.11	60.00	63.83	0.03	0.03
Jacksonville	ASun	0.10	0.11	56.52	59.89	0.01	0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.15	0.11	23.81	28.38	-0.08	-0.05
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.11	57.14	57.10	0.01	0.02
Centenary	Sum	0.10	0.11	27.27	27.20	-0.04	-0.05
South Alabama	SB	0.09	0.11	47.83	47.55	-0.00	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.15	0.11	9.52	8.87	-0.12	-0.09
Xavier	A10	0.09	0.11	69.57	71.43	0.04	0.05
Long Island	NEC	0.15	0.11	39.13	41.53	-0.03	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.09	0.11	66.67	69.41	0.03	0.04
Alabama	SEC	0.09	0.10	56.52	54.14	0.01	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.09	0.10	47.62	44.47	-0.00	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.09	0.10	56.52	51.96	0.01	0.00
Maine	AE	0.05	0.10	63.64	61.86	0.01	0.02
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.10	0.09	40.00	40.09	-0.02	-0.02
Savannah St.	ind	0.05	0.09	30.00	31.19	-0.02	-0.03
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.16	0.09	21.05	22.43	-0.09	-0.05
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.09	12.50	15.31	-0.04	-0.06
Denver	SB	0.10	0.09	60.87	59.58	0.02	0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.09	42.86	41.51	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.10	0.09	36.36	36.18	-0.03	-0.02
North Texas	SB	0.10	0.09	61.90	63.69	0.02	0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.10	0.09	30.43	32.32	-0.04	-0.03
College of Charleston	SC	0.10	0.08	66.67	65.62	0.03	0.03
The Citadel	SC	0.10	0.08	45.45	45.80	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.10	0.08	31.82	29.58	-0.04	-0.03
Wofford	SC	0.15	0.08	66.67	67.94	0.05	0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.14	0.08	70.59	72.98	0.06	0.04
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.08	72.73	71.91	0.05	0.04
New Mexico	MWC	0.09	0.08	87.50	83.52	0.07	0.06
Florida International	SB	0.10	0.08	24.00	23.74	-0.05	-0.04
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.14	0.08	52.17	54.94	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.14	0.08	47.62	50.38	-0.01	0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.10	0.08	68.18	66.65	0.04	0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.09	0.08	69.57	70.29	0.04	0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.15	0.08	31.82	31.64	-0.05	-0.03
Southern Utah	Sum	0.09	0.08	19.05	20.55	-0.06	-0.05
Brown	Ivy	0.10	0.08	23.81	27.31	-0.05	-0.04
Bryant	ind	0.10	0.08	0.00	4.18	-0.10	-0.07
George Washington	A10	0.09	0.08	54.55	55.07	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.08	39.13	36.57	-0.01	-0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.08	73.68	75.41	0.02	0.04
Drexel	CAA	0.14	0.08	56.00	55.91	0.02	0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.05	0.08	65.22	67.00	0.01	0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.14	0.08	82.61	78.56	0.09	0.05
Columbia	Ivy	0.00	0.08	40.00	39.13	-0.00	-0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.09	0.08	72.00	70.73	0.04	0.03
Long Beach St.	BW	0.10	0.08	42.86	45.66	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.08	45.45	44.00	-0.00	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.09	0.08	45.45	42.62	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.09	0.08	86.96	85.47	0.07	0.05
Albany	AE	0.05	0.08	23.08	25.77	-0.02	-0.04
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.09	0.08	11.11	20.93	-0.07	-0.04
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.08	27.27	29.40	-0.02	-0.03
Winston Salem St.	ind	0.09	0.08	29.41	29.63	-0.04	-0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.09	0.07	47.06	50.65	-0.01	0.00
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.05	0.06	80.95	82.07	0.03	0.04
High Point	BSth	0.10	0.06	42.86	44.37	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.10	0.06	55.56	55.85	0.01	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.10	0.06	47.83	44.73	-0.00	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.11	0.06	42.86	41.05	-0.02	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.06	73.91	69.49	0.02	0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.10	0.06	62.50	57.74	0.03	0.01
New Orleans	SB	0.10	0.06	22.73	22.86	-0.05	-0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.06	35.00	30.59	-0.01	-0.02
Brigham Young	MWC	0.10	0.06	87.50	87.42	0.07	0.04
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.06	59.09	52.85	0.01	0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.06	66.67	67.74	0.02	0.02
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.06	40.91	38.27	-0.01	-0.01
Utah	MWC	0.05	0.06	45.45	44.32	-0.00	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.06	33.33	30.72	-0.02	-0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.10	0.05	39.13	38.63	-0.02	-0.01
American	Pat	0.00	0.05	30.43	32.39	-0.00	-0.02
Monmouth	NEC	0.10	0.05	41.67	42.69	-0.02	-0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.10	0.05	22.22	27.56	-0.06	-0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.05	72.00	73.54	0.02	0.03
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.10	0.05	45.00	43.95	-0.01	-0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.10	0.05	58.33	58.93	0.02	0.01
Hartford	AE	0.10	0.05	30.43	32.48	-0.04	-0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.05	39.13	47.65	-0.01	-0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.09	0.05	54.55	54.05	0.01	0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.09	0.05	42.86	45.31	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.10	0.05	47.83	46.36	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.10	0.05	71.43	67.85	0.04	0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.05	38.10	38.08	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.05	33.33	33.96	-0.03	-0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	86.36	81.50	0.03	0.03
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	75.00	71.23	0.02	0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	83.33	81.25	0.03	0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.05	50.00	50.91	0.00	0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.05	68.18	68.72	0.02	0.02
Vermont	AE	0.09	0.05	68.00	67.20	0.03	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.09	0.05	66.67	57.29	0.03	0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.05	30.00	31.79	-0.02	-0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.09	0.05	36.36	38.12	-0.03	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	39.38	-0.02	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	52.17	55.04	0.00	0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.05	37.50	39.23	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.10	0.05	45.45	46.81	-0.01	-0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.09	0.05	56.52	54.46	0.01	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.09	0.05	43.48	47.68	-0.01	-0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.09	0.05	68.18	67.88	0.03	0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.09	0.05	52.00	49.34	0.00	-0.00