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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Georgia

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:132.0
Current RPI:126
Expected SOS:19
Current SOS:31
Current Record:10-12
Expected Record:12-18
Current Conf Record:1-7
Expected Conf Record:3-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.09%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:9-5
Expected OOC Record:9-5
Expected OOC RPI:90
Expected OOC SOS:65



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-1364.20.04%
16-1481.40.45%
15-1595.93.57%
14-16108.913.04%
13-17122.326.82%
12-18136.831.90%
11-19152.119.54%
10-20168.64.63%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Wofford (173.4)SCH62-49W100%0.0
11-13Bowling Green (155.1)MACH63-54W100%0.0
11-16South Dakota St. (55.2)SumH72-61W100%0.0
11-21California (42.4)P12N46-70L0%0.0
11-22Notre Dame (66.5)BEN61-57W100%0.0
11-25Xavier (55.8)A10A70-56L0%0.0
11-28Colorado (75.2)P12A70-68L0%0.0
12-2Cincinnati (89.8)BEH51-57L0%0.0
12-7Georgia Tech (164.1)ACCH56-68L0%0.0
12-17Southern California (232.8)P12A59-63W100%0.0
12-20Mercer (98.0)ASunH72-58W100%0.0
12-23Furman (230.9)SCH64-50W100%0.0
12-27Winthrop (269.0)BSthH92-86W100%0.0
12-30Delaware St. (279.9)MEACH58-51W100%0.0
1-7Alabama (30.4)SECH59-74L0%0.0
1-10Florida (14.9)SECA70-48L0%0.0
1-14Vanderbilt (31.5)SECA77-66L0%0.0
1-18Tennessee (136.4)SECH57-53W100%0.0
1-21Mississippi (70.0)SECH63-66L0%0.0
1-24Kentucky (4.3)SECH44-57L0%0.0
2-1Auburn (147.6)SECA59-51L0%0.0
2-4Tennessee (136.4)SECA73-62L0%0.0
2-8Arkansas (65.9)SECH0-043%-1.8
2-11Mississippi St. (41.7)SECA0-018%-9.9
2-15South Carolina (172.1)SECA0-039%-3.0
2-19Vanderbilt (31.5)SECH0-029%-5.9
2-22Louisiana St. (85.2)SECA0-024%-7.8
2-25Florida (14.9)SECH0-017%-10.6
3-1Kentucky (4.3)SECA0-02%-22.4
3-3South Carolina (172.1)SECH0-064%3.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
GeorgiaSEC26.2226.1138.3035.37-6.14-7.64
South CarolinaSEC0.493.9940.9138.92-0.09-0.88
VanderbiltSEC2.583.9668.1864.530.941.15
FloridaSEC2.483.9481.8276.671.582.10
KentuckySEC2.583.9495.6592.132.363.32
TennesseeSEC4.793.9345.0044.28-0.48-0.45
AlabamaSEC2.472.2466.6768.030.820.81
Louisiana St.SEC0.302.2459.0956.620.050.30
ArkansasSEC0.252.2269.5765.440.100.68
Mississippi St.SEC0.352.2278.2672.020.200.98
AuburnSEC2.522.2154.5547.050.23-0.13
MississippiSEC2.422.2161.9055.220.580.23
Southern CaliforniaP122.371.8126.0925.97-1.14-0.87
WoffordSC2.331.7861.9059.990.550.36
Georgia TechACC2.441.7836.3640.13-0.67-0.35
CaliforniaP122.371.7873.9173.761.140.85
MercerASun2.431.7573.9174.111.160.85
FurmanSC2.371.7550.0050.700.000.02
ColoradoP122.371.7565.0061.260.710.39
XavierA102.371.7563.6462.490.650.44
Notre DameBE2.391.7368.1864.740.870.51
CincinnatiBE2.371.7268.1864.320.860.49
Delaware St.MEAC2.371.7237.5041.44-0.59-0.29
South Dakota St.Sum2.321.6977.2778.191.270.96
Bowling GreenMAC2.271.6750.0050.570.000.02
WinthropBSth2.271.6736.3635.89-0.62-0.47
JacksonvilleASun0.300.2317.3922.00-0.20-0.13
ArizonaP120.200.2266.6768.550.070.08
MarquetteBE0.200.2279.1775.980.120.11
ChattanoogaSC0.250.2027.2735.02-0.11-0.06
OregonP120.200.1969.5764.530.080.06
Oregon St.P120.200.1963.6463.160.050.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.150.1950.0058.160.000.03
College of CharlestonSC0.310.1758.3359.980.050.03
The CitadelSC0.310.179.5211.44-0.25-0.13
Western CarolinaSC0.160.1734.7837.24-0.05-0.04
DavidsonSC0.210.1776.1976.760.110.09
PresbyterianBSth0.150.1740.9143.66-0.03-0.02
ClemsonACC0.150.1750.0048.360.00-0.01
OaklandSum0.250.1748.0050.21-0.010.00
StanfordP120.150.1769.5768.290.060.06
Miami OHMAC0.200.1730.0034.15-0.08-0.05
North FloridaASun0.200.1645.8346.68-0.02-0.01
ConnecticutBE0.250.1668.1863.990.090.05
RutgersBE0.150.1650.0046.810.00-0.01
LouisvilleBE0.150.1678.2672.660.080.07
Appalachian St.SC0.110.1535.0039.29-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSC0.160.1540.0041.30-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.170.1470.8364.420.070.04
SamfordSC0.150.1433.3335.26-0.05-0.04
Arizona St.P120.150.1430.4331.43-0.06-0.05
RadfordBSth0.200.148.7013.10-0.16-0.10
UtahP120.150.1418.1815.01-0.09-0.10
MarylandACC0.200.1459.0950.820.040.00
WashingtonP120.200.1469.5766.540.080.05
MemphisCUSA0.260.1469.5771.510.100.06
South Carolina UpstateASun0.090.1454.5556.090.010.02
UCLAP120.150.1454.5556.790.010.02
North CarolinaACC0.100.1486.9683.160.070.09
St. John'sBE0.100.1343.4840.28-0.01-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1225.0037.58-0.05-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.210.1240.9142.96-0.04-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.120.1250.0051.730.000.00
George WashingtonA100.220.1234.7832.08-0.07-0.04
ElonSC0.050.1250.0047.590.00-0.01
NC GreensboroSC0.160.1234.7833.46-0.05-0.04
NC AshevilleBSth0.150.1268.1867.640.060.04
Austin PeayOVC0.200.1133.3335.97-0.07-0.03
DaytonA100.150.1160.8760.960.030.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.150.1152.3852.860.010.01
Washington St.P120.150.1150.0048.170.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.160.1147.8349.03-0.01-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.150.118.708.99-0.13-0.09
Florida St.ACC0.150.1172.7371.710.070.05
Ohio St.B100.050.1186.9685.460.040.08
PittsburghBE0.200.1160.8758.160.040.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.1156.5250.270.000.00
Seton HallBE0.150.1165.2263.740.040.03
StetsonASun0.140.1131.8231.31-0.05-0.04
SyracuseBE0.150.1195.8392.010.140.09
West VirginiaBE0.050.1165.2265.170.020.03
HowardMEAC0.120.0918.1822.22-0.08-0.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.0934.7838.77-0.03-0.02
High PointBSth0.150.0931.8232.75-0.05-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.170.0919.0522.37-0.10-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0910.0014.93-0.00-0.06
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0956.5253.100.010.01
Western KentuckySB0.110.0934.7834.48-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.050.0968.4266.450.020.03
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.100.0934.7835.20-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.100.0981.8276.800.060.05
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.150.0935.0035.31-0.04-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.150.0980.7780.750.090.05
AkronMAC0.050.0868.1867.910.020.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0847.8343.66-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.150.0826.3229.79-0.07-0.03
DukeACC0.150.0886.3683.090.110.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.088.7011.67-0.08-0.06
CharlotteA100.050.0850.0049.450.00-0.00
GramblingSWAC0.050.0815.0015.73-0.04-0.06
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0827.7829.58-0.00-0.03
Middle TennesseeSB0.100.0883.3384.760.070.06
Penn St.B100.100.0841.6738.67-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.100.0850.0042.830.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.100.0880.9577.380.060.04
MissouriB120.140.0891.3087.180.120.06
South FloridaBE0.100.0854.5548.600.01-0.00
IndianaB100.100.0875.0075.780.050.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.0819.0525.52-0.06-0.04
KansasB120.090.0878.2678.390.050.05
Texas A&MB120.050.0852.3846.150.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0845.4546.08-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.100.0841.6740.61-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0636.3638.48-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.0620.0019.96-0.08-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0668.1869.680.020.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.120.0638.1042.78-0.03-0.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0656.0055.650.010.01
LibertyBSth0.100.0627.2727.21-0.04-0.03
Virginia Military InstBSth0.100.0645.0044.15-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0655.0060.330.000.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0672.2271.970.000.03
DrakeMVC0.100.0652.1750.090.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.110.0682.6180.420.070.04
IUPUISum0.050.0634.7835.50-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0671.4369.050.020.02
North DakotaGWC0.100.0633.3341.31-0.03-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0661.9063.520.010.02
OhioMAC0.050.0681.8277.200.030.03
South DakotaSum0.050.0626.3228.83-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahSum0.100.0645.4544.30-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0652.6348.410.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0631.8242.13-0.02-0.01
DuquesneA100.100.0659.0956.350.020.01
NiagaraMAAC0.100.0637.5041.54-0.02-0.01
TempleA100.050.0677.2775.060.030.03
TulaneCUSA0.100.0661.9058.590.020.01
MinnesotaB100.100.0669.5761.310.040.01
NebraskaB100.100.0652.3846.680.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.0617.6527.10-0.07-0.03
BelmontASun0.050.0669.5773.280.020.03
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0630.4326.44-0.02-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0650.0048.900.00-0.00
FordhamA100.100.0640.9134.50-0.02-0.02
HawaiiWAC0.100.0657.1453.120.010.00
LipscombASun0.050.0643.4843.82-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.100.0671.4373.350.040.03
Miami FLACC0.100.0665.0060.020.030.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0625.0023.75-0.02-0.03
NorthwesternB100.050.0661.9055.140.010.01
PurdueB100.100.0665.2260.580.030.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.0662.5062.490.020.01
St. LouisA100.050.0677.2777.670.030.03
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.100.0680.0078.060.060.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.0517.3924.41-0.06-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.100.0581.8281.490.060.03
HoustonCUSA0.000.0547.6244.63-0.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.100.0541.1842.61-0.02-0.01
North TexasSB0.000.0550.0050.010.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0552.3857.860.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0552.3852.870.000.00
Texas ChristianMWC0.100.0557.1449.540.01-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0535.0035.26-0.01-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0543.4844.25-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0573.9175.000.020.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0581.8280.430.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0556.5254.220.010.00
LafayettePat0.050.0543.4842.95-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0561.9067.230.010.02
Longwoodind0.050.0530.0027.84-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDMAAC0.050.0577.2773.450.030.03
MaristMAAC0.050.0534.7833.43-0.01-0.02
MonmouthNEC0.050.0528.0028.91-0.02-0.02
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.090.0582.6181.440.060.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0555.0054.480.000.00
OklahomaB120.050.0559.0954.700.010.01
Old DominionCAA0.050.0560.0058.290.010.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0521.7421.70-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.050.0537.5038.52-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0585.7178.050.070.03
UABCUSA0.050.0540.9139.82-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.050.0572.2263.190.020.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.0342.1149.81-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.070.0347.8350.65-0.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0333.3337.25-0.02-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0338.8943.93-0.01-0.00
WagnerNEC0.070.0382.6184.570.040.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0355.0054.800.010.00
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.050.0319.0521.29-0.03-0.02
NC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0339.1336.10-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0347.3742.16-0.00-0.00
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.050.0347.8347.87-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0366.6760.800.020.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0379.1778.100.030.02
Fresno St.WAC0.050.0339.1344.52-0.01-0.00
WyomingMWC0.050.0376.1970.730.030.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0355.0057.410.000.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0324.0024.86-0.03-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0328.5734.20-0.02-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0340.9138.38-0.01-0.01
Florida InternationalSB0.050.0333.3337.16-0.02-0.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0376.1972.910.030.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0345.4546.99-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.035.267.30-0.05-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0335.0040.78-0.02-0.01
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.050.0357.1460.750.010.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0338.1040.81-0.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0365.2263.610.020.01
WisconsinB100.050.0375.0073.970.030.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0342.8641.13-0.00-0.00
ButlerHorz0.050.0350.0050.800.000.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0372.7368.280.020.01
La SalleA100.050.0370.8368.820.020.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0354.1754.750.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0373.9168.580.000.01
NavyPat0.050.039.5213.19-0.04-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0345.4540.70-0.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0320.8320.60-0.00-0.02
RichmondA100.000.0350.0048.490.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0345.4545.55-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0334.7832.06-0.02-0.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.050.0338.1037.86-0.01-0.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.050.0385.7182.180.040.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0360.0059.060.010.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.050.0343.4843.31-0.01-0.00
TulsaCUSA0.050.0360.8759.050.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0356.5255.200.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0330.0037.30-0.02-0.01
BaylorB120.000.0390.9183.850.000.02
BryantNEC0.050.038.3310.86-0.04-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.050.0350.0056.760.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0321.0522.46-0.03-0.01
Chicago St.GWC0.050.034.769.95-0.04-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.050.0314.2917.17-0.04-0.02
DenverSB0.050.0370.8372.230.020.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.000.0336.3639.72-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0334.7838.42-0.02-0.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.000.0342.8643.45-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.050.0350.0049.730.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0359.0959.720.010.01
MichiganB100.000.0372.7366.810.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0381.8281.030.030.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0344.0045.89-0.01-0.00
San Jose St.WAC0.050.0327.2726.95-0.02-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.034.359.66-0.00-0.02
TroySB0.000.0328.5730.17-0.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0342.8639.66-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0355.5658.010.010.00
Utah St.WAC0.000.0350.0052.930.000.00
Utah ValleyGWC0.000.0354.5557.690.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.050.0380.0076.840.030.01