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Through games of Nov 24, 2014.


Georgia

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:76.9
Current RPI:149
Expected SOS:47
Current SOS:232
Current Record:3-1
Expected Record:16-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:3-1
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:56
Expected OOC SOS:47



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-44.00.01%
24-55.00.02%
23-613.60.20%
22-718.50.83%
21-823.92.19%
20-931.55.12%
19-1041.49.31%
18-1153.014.68%
17-1266.217.85%
16-1381.017.81%
15-1497.714.14%
14-15115.09.41%
13-16132.95.05%
12-17150.92.35%
11-18170.20.68%
10-19185.40.28%
9-20198.50.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Georgia Tech (91.5)ACCA80-73L0%0.0
11-18Stony Brook (105.4)AEH80-70W100%0.0
11-21Troy (243.4)SBH82-60W100%0.0
11-23Florida Atlantic (252.0)CUSAH74-61W100%0.0
11-26Gonzaga (15.9)WCCN0-021%-9.7
12-2Chattanooga (240.3)SCA0-078%9.2
12-7Colorado (94.9)P12H0-063%4.0
12-21Seton Hall (43.6)BEH0-056%1.7
12-27Mercer (207.1)SCH0-089%14.6
12-31Kansas St. (72.8)B12A0-034%-4.9
1-3Norfolk St. (233.2)MEACH0-092%16.9
1-6Arkansas (31.5)SECH0-045%-1.5
1-10LSU (90.6)SECA0-041%-2.6
1-14Vanderbilt (132.6)SECA0-050%-0.1
1-17Florida (30.5)SECH0-042%-2.4
1-20Mississippi (84.5)SECH0-064%4.4
1-24Mississippi St. (176.2)SECA0-060%3.1
1-27Vanderbilt (132.6)SECH0-072%7.1
1-31South Carolina (103.6)SECA0-040%-3.1
2-3Kentucky (3.2)SECA0-07%-17.7
2-7Tennessee (172.1)SECH0-079%9.6
2-11Texas A&M (43.9)SECA0-027%-7.5
2-14Auburn (208.9)SECH0-086%12.9
2-17South Carolina (103.6)SECH0-063%4.1
2-21Alabama (67.9)SECA0-036%-4.2
2-25Mississippi (84.5)SECA0-041%-2.8
2-28Missouri (134.2)SECH0-073%7.4
3-3Kentucky (3.2)SECH0-019%-10.5
3-7Auburn (208.9)SECA0-068%5.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
GeorgiaSEC34.3826.1575.0054.6117.192.41
VanderbiltSEC0.004.10100.0051.710.000.14
KentuckySEC0.004.07100.0088.050.003.09
MississippiSEC3.124.0675.0056.241.560.51
AuburnSEC0.004.0650.0033.340.00-1.35
South CarolinaSEC0.004.0640.0050.12-0.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.002.4850.0042.330.00-0.38
AlabamaSEC0.002.4875.0058.000.000.40
Texas A&MSEC0.002.4675.0069.040.000.94
FloridaSEC0.002.4566.6769.040.000.93
ArkansasSEC0.002.43100.0075.240.001.23
LSUSEC0.002.4360.0056.210.000.30
Mississippi St.SEC0.002.43100.0047.680.00-0.11
MissouriSEC0.002.4250.0043.660.00-0.31
MercerSC0.001.8733.3354.35-0.000.16
ChattanoogaSC0.001.790.0047.80-0.00-0.08
Kansas St.B120.001.7875.0057.500.000.27
ColoradoP120.001.7866.6757.480.000.27
Georgia TechACC12.501.78100.0050.1312.500.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.001.7833.3348.70-0.00-0.05
TroySB12.501.780.0046.46-12.50-0.13
Seton HallBE0.001.76100.0065.800.000.55
Florida AtlanticCUSA12.501.720.0037.57-12.50-0.43
GonzagaWCC0.001.72100.0086.260.001.25
Stony BrookAE12.501.7250.0067.530.000.60
Western CarolinaSC0.000.2433.3354.64-0.000.02
BaylorB120.000.24100.0070.100.000.10
ClemsonACC0.000.2460.0051.710.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.210.0038.56-0.00-0.05
UCLAP120.000.18100.0064.700.000.05
Iowa St.B120.000.18100.0067.390.000.06
XavierBE0.000.18100.0080.240.000.11
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1666.6757.950.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1550.0045.420.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1533.3343.21-0.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.000.150.0043.29-0.00-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.15100.0055.770.000.02
Texas TechB120.000.1566.6745.370.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.1475.0072.970.000.07
KansasB120.000.1466.6758.820.000.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.14100.0071.170.000.06
FurmanSC0.000.1333.3323.97-0.00-0.07
SamfordSC0.000.1340.0039.62-0.00-0.03
The CitadelSC0.000.130.0026.64-0.00-0.06
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.130.0028.12-0.00-0.05
VMISC0.000.1333.3337.04-0.00-0.03
WoffordSC0.000.1380.0076.960.000.07
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1250.0026.270.00-0.06
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.120.0039.88-0.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.1266.6751.200.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.1233.3342.50-0.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1275.0065.610.000.04
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1250.0054.250.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.12100.0074.960.000.06
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1275.0056.390.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.1260.0045.520.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.12100.0059.940.000.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.12100.0070.800.000.05
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.120.0066.25-0.000.04
TCUB120.000.12100.0057.580.000.02
ColumbiaIvy2.080.1266.6765.570.690.04
TexasB120.000.12100.0079.170.000.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1233.3343.01-0.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.11100.0060.130.000.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.090.0040.87-0.00-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0950.0062.790.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.090.0023.63-0.00-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0966.6745.370.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.09100.0056.070.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0933.3328.67-0.00-0.04
Arizona St.P120.000.0975.0056.870.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0925.0042.98-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.090.0022.66-0.00-0.05
San FranciscoWCC0.000.09100.0062.840.000.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0933.3340.57-0.00-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.090.0027.43-0.00-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.000.090.0033.26-0.00-0.03
North FloridaASun0.000.090.0044.98-0.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0966.6758.810.000.02
PurdueB100.000.0975.0062.270.000.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0966.6757.060.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.0975.0069.180.000.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0940.0034.21-0.00-0.03
DePaulBE0.000.09100.0036.280.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0950.0035.180.00-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0925.0057.73-0.000.01
OregonP120.000.0975.0068.720.000.03
HartfordAE0.000.0975.0040.470.00-0.02
RutgersB100.000.0966.6735.400.00-0.03
MaineAE0.000.090.0017.71-0.00-0.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.09100.0060.950.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0925.0035.54-0.00-0.03
West VirginiaB120.000.09100.0070.420.000.04
GeorgetownBE0.000.09100.0061.740.000.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0933.3360.92-0.000.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.09100.0081.370.000.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0666.6750.930.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0650.0043.570.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0650.0050.520.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0633.3363.19-0.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0633.3327.72-0.00-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0039.32-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0666.6748.390.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0625.0039.30-0.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0064.710.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0620.0025.79-0.00-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.060.0055.84-0.000.01
ElonCAA2.080.0633.3341.47-0.69-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0029.05-0.00-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.0620.0044.69-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0038.25-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.060.0041.06-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0060.870.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0680.0072.950.000.03
USCP120.000.0640.0028.54-0.00-0.03
UtahP120.000.0666.6772.280.000.03
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0074.230.000.03
HofstraCAA2.080.0675.0066.801.040.02
Miami FLACC0.000.06100.0078.600.000.03
Oregon St.P120.000.0666.6745.890.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0625.0040.14-0.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0666.6753.640.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0666.6738.720.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0680.0074.980.000.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0633.3340.10-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0675.0069.590.000.02
AlbanyAE0.000.0633.3364.13-0.000.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.060.0029.07-0.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.0666.6768.540.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.0633.3337.47-0.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0633.3326.24-0.00-0.03
PacificWCC0.000.0633.3332.25-0.00-0.02
PennIvy0.000.060.0024.67-0.00-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.000.0666.6756.000.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.06100.0051.040.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0071.470.000.03
San DiegoWCC0.000.0675.0050.400.000.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0675.0058.430.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.060.0038.08-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0625.0046.39-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0633.3349.79-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.000.0633.3358.52-0.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0633.3354.48-0.000.01
New HampshireAE0.000.060.0041.46-0.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0660.0041.560.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0633.3344.26-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0666.6751.260.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.06100.0084.110.000.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.060.0045.64-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0650.0069.360.000.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0650.0055.640.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0039.51-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0051.940.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0073.380.000.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0640.0053.80-0.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0640.0059.10-0.000.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.060.0053.97-0.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0064.210.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0666.6759.480.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0650.0050.880.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.060.0021.27-0.00-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0031.92-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0021.40-0.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0034.81-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.030.0031.81-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy2.080.0350.0067.730.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0380.0072.030.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0029.60-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.030.0033.27-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.03100.0047.530.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0070.270.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0350.0037.390.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0045.710.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC2.080.030.0043.12-2.08-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0340.0038.53-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0375.0068.180.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0320.0035.62-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0085.500.000.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0021.49-0.00-0.02
IPFWSum2.080.0366.6760.760.690.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0375.0047.460.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0316.6730.01-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0069.16-0.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.030.0050.64-0.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0333.3339.78-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.03100.0041.460.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6751.570.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0325.0042.83-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0034.67-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0375.0069.760.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0375.0065.950.000.01
VCUA100.000.0375.0067.590.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0366.6733.810.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0084.620.000.02
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0066.880.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0360.0057.920.000.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0333.3322.95-0.00-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0350.0034.540.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0366.6756.820.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0058.760.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0375.0070.270.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0065.880.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.030.0045.75-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0325.0052.91-0.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.0350.0032.050.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0350.0066.640.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0016.93-0.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0366.6746.410.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0333.3348.25-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0350.0045.970.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0037.880.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.030.0029.61-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0019.76-0.00-0.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0380.0059.570.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0350.0035.290.00-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0375.0060.930.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0375.0055.490.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0366.6746.440.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6774.460.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0066.020.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0325.0042.95-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0360.0056.230.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0034.80-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.030.0028.50-0.00-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0340.0038.36-0.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.030.0064.44-0.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0375.0073.930.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0380.0061.930.000.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0366.6749.970.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0325.0053.38-0.000.00