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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Georgia

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:38.0
Current RPI:38
Expected SOS:39
Current SOS:39
Current Record:21-11
Expected Record:21-11
Current Conf Record:12-8
Expected Conf Record:12-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:9-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:49
Expected OOC SOS:91



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1138.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Georgia Tech (153.0)ACCA80-73L0%0.0
11-18Stony Brook (107.0)AEH80-70W100%0.0
11-21Troy (313.0)SBH82-60W100%0.0
11-23Florida Atlantic (303.0)CUSAH74-61W100%0.0
11-26Gonzaga (8.0)WCCN88-76L0%0.0
11-28Minnesota (98.0)B10N62-66L0%0.0
12-2Chattanooga (112.0)SCA55-86W100%0.0
12-7Colorado (116.0)P12H64-57W100%0.0
12-21Seton Hall (97.0)BEH65-47W100%0.0
12-27Mercer (212.0)SCH86-77W100%0.0
12-31Kansas St. (100.0)B12A46-50W100%0.0
1-3Norfolk St. (167.0)MEACH63-50W100%0.0
1-6Arkansas (19.0)SECH75-79L0%0.0
1-10LSU (57.0)SECA87-84L0%0.0
1-14Vanderbilt (104.0)SECA67-70W100%0.0
1-17Florida (72.0)SECH73-61W100%0.0
1-20Mississippi (60.0)SECH69-64W100%0.0
1-24Mississippi St. (216.0)SECA66-72W100%0.0
1-27Vanderbilt (104.0)SECH70-62W100%0.0
1-31South Carolina (91.0)SECA67-50L0%0.0
2-3Kentucky (1.0)SECA69-58L0%0.0
2-7Tennessee (96.0)SECH56-53W100%0.0
2-11Texas A&M (67.0)SECA53-62W100%0.0
2-14Auburn (129.0)SECH68-69L0%0.0
2-17South Carolina (91.0)SECH58-64L0%0.0
2-21Alabama (85.0)SECA65-66W100%0.0
2-25Mississippi (60.0)SECA72-76W100%0.0
2-28Missouri (218.0)SECH68-44W100%0.0
3-3Kentucky (1.0)SECH64-72L0%0.0
3-7Auburn (129.0)SECA61-64W100%0.0
3-13South Carolina (91.0)SECN74-62W100%0.0
3-14Arkansas (19.0)SECN60-49L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
GeorgiaSEC26.1726.1763.8263.827.237.23
South CarolinaSEC5.315.3148.2848.28-0.18-0.18
ArkansasSEC3.833.8375.0075.001.911.91
KentuckySEC3.833.83100.00100.003.833.83
AuburnSEC3.813.8140.6240.62-0.71-0.71
MississippiSEC3.783.7866.6766.671.261.26
VanderbiltSEC3.733.7362.0762.070.900.90
TennesseeSEC2.392.3951.6151.610.080.08
FloridaSEC2.292.2950.0050.000.000.00
AlabamaSEC2.292.2956.6756.670.300.30
MissouriSEC2.282.2826.6726.67-1.07-1.07
Mississippi St.SEC2.262.2640.0040.00-0.45-0.45
Texas A&MSEC2.262.2666.6766.670.750.75
LSUSEC2.242.2467.7467.740.790.79
MercerSC1.691.6953.3353.330.110.11
ChattanoogaSC1.611.6168.9768.970.610.61
Georgia TechACC1.611.6136.6736.67-0.43-0.43
Norfolk St.MEAC1.611.6160.0060.000.320.32
Kansas St.B121.611.6148.3948.39-0.05-0.05
TroySB1.611.6130.7730.77-0.62-0.62
ColoradoP121.611.6148.3948.39-0.05-0.05
Seton HallBE1.591.5953.3353.330.110.11
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.561.5626.9226.92-0.72-0.72
GonzagaWCC1.561.5693.7593.751.371.37
MinnesotaB101.561.5651.6151.610.050.05
Stony BrookAE1.561.5667.7467.740.550.55
ClemsonACC0.240.2451.6151.610.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.230.2343.3343.33-0.03-0.03
BaylorB120.220.2271.8871.880.100.10
Iowa St.B120.190.1975.7675.760.100.10
FurmanSC0.180.1829.0329.03-0.07-0.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.170.1764.7164.710.050.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
PurdueB100.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
TCUB120.150.1554.5554.550.010.01
XavierBE0.150.1561.7661.760.030.03
DaytonA100.150.1575.7675.760.070.07
Wake ForestACC0.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
KansasB120.140.1476.4776.470.080.08
UABCUSA0.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.130.1352.9452.940.010.01
VMISC0.130.1332.1432.14-0.05-0.05
CharlotteCUSA0.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
LipscombASun0.130.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.130.1340.6240.62-0.02-0.02
RutgersB100.120.1231.2531.25-0.05-0.05
ArizonaP120.120.1291.1891.180.100.10
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.120.1268.9768.970.050.05
ProvidenceBE0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.120.1268.5768.570.040.04
Oregon St.P120.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.120.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.110.1125.9325.93-0.05-0.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
SamfordSC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.100.1029.6329.63-0.04-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
WoffordSC0.100.1081.2581.250.060.06
ButlerBE0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
Arizona St.P120.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
CreightonBE0.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
North FloridaASun0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
OregonP120.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
LouisvilleACC0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
San FranciscoWCC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.090.0944.4444.44-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0821.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0760.7160.710.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.070.0791.1891.180.060.06
DePaulBE0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0710.3410.34-0.06-0.06
Florida St.ACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
YaleIvy0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
HartfordAE0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.070.0710.0010.00-0.06-0.06
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
OklahomaB120.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
AkronMAC0.070.0758.8258.820.010.01
AlbanyAE0.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
BinghamtonAE0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
CornellIvy0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
WashingtonP120.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
West VirginiaB120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
PacificWCC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Washington St.P120.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0755.5655.560.010.01
BYUWCC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
PepperdineWCC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
SMUAmer0.070.0781.2581.250.040.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
South AlabamaSB0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
PennIvy0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0594.1294.120.040.04
VirginiaACC0.050.0590.6290.620.040.04
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0527.2727.27-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0572.4172.410.020.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
NebraskaB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
USCP120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0562.9662.960.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0374.0774.070.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
IPFWSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0318.7518.75-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0375.8675.860.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
BradleyMVC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
DrexelCAA0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
IndianaB100.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
MassachusettsA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
MichiganB100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
VCUA100.020.0274.2974.290.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
MemphisAmer0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00