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Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


Georgia

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:86.1
Current RPI:73
Expected SOS:38
Current SOS:27
Current Record:13-9
Expected Record:16-13
Current Conf Record:6-5
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:76
Expected OOC SOS:13



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-931.40.19%
19-1043.41.76%
18-1157.28.40%
17-1270.723.44%
16-1384.632.24%
15-14101.823.97%
14-15120.58.79%
13-16140.11.20%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Chattanooga (46.3)SCH90-92L0%0.0
11-20Murray St. (180.2)OVCH63-52W100%0.0
11-25High Point (189.2)BSthH49-46W100%0.0
11-28Seton Hall (55.2)BEA69-62L0%0.0
12-1Oakland (122.4)HorzH86-82W100%0.0
12-4Kansas St. (70.2)B12H66-68L0%0.0
12-8Winthrop (161.3)BSthH74-64W100%0.0
12-19Georgia Tech (87.1)ACCH75-61W100%0.0
12-22Clemson (108.3)ACCH71-48W100%0.0
12-29Robert Morris (306.3)NECH79-67W100%0.0
1-2Florida (23.5)SECA77-63L0%0.0
1-6Missouri (222.4)SECH77-59W100%0.0
1-9Mississippi (113.8)SECA72-71L0%0.0
1-13Tennessee (112.5)SECH81-72W100%0.0
1-16Texas A&M (27.5)SECH45-79L0%0.0
1-20Missouri (222.4)SECA57-60W100%0.0
1-23Arkansas (106.1)SECH76-73W100%0.0
1-26LSU (86.5)SECA89-85L0%0.0
1-30Baylor (25.7)B12A83-73L0%0.0
2-2South Carolina (39.1)SECH69-56W100%0.0
2-6Auburn (167.3)SECH65-55W100%0.0
2-9Kentucky (17.0)SECA82-48L0%0.0
2-13Mississippi St. (162.2)SECA0-038%-3.3
2-16Florida (23.5)SECH0-035%-4.3
2-20Vanderbilt (53.4)SECA0-014%-11.8
2-24Auburn (167.3)SECA0-060%2.8
2-27Mississippi (113.8)SECH0-065%4.1
3-3South Carolina (39.1)SECA0-024%-7.6
3-5Alabama (69.6)SECH0-064%3.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
GeorgiaSEC26.1526.1152.4450.431.280.22
MississippiSEC2.754.1560.8758.330.600.69
MissouriSEC4.884.1036.3632.36-1.33-1.44
South CarolinaSEC2.654.0790.9183.462.172.72
FloridaSEC2.654.0465.2265.190.811.23
AuburnSEC2.704.0440.9136.56-0.49-1.08
AlabamaSEC0.582.4660.8756.670.130.33
TennesseeSEC2.662.4352.1749.730.12-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.572.4358.3359.100.100.44
Texas A&MSEC2.752.4373.9174.521.321.19
Mississippi St.SEC0.522.4043.4843.14-0.07-0.33
ArkansasSEC2.702.4052.1754.710.120.23
KentuckySEC2.652.3773.9171.701.271.03
LSUSEC2.612.3760.8757.710.570.37
Kansas St.B122.561.9256.5254.840.330.19
ClemsonACC2.321.8760.8760.410.500.39
Georgia TechACC2.371.8456.5253.730.310.14
BaylorB122.411.8472.7367.361.100.64
WinthropBSth2.331.8270.0066.330.930.59
High PointBSth2.331.7960.0062.260.470.44
Seton HallBE2.321.7869.5766.980.910.60
OaklandHorz2.321.7568.0067.690.830.62
Robert MorrisNEC2.321.7528.0029.56-1.02-0.72
ChattanoogaSC2.271.7282.6183.111.481.14
Murray St.OVC2.271.7250.0052.850.000.10
Oklahoma St.B120.240.2345.8342.30-0.02-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.300.2150.0048.950.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.200.2060.8755.310.040.02
WoffordSC0.280.2045.8348.12-0.02-0.01
XavierBE0.190.2087.5081.850.140.13
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.210.1957.1457.670.030.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.260.1843.4845.21-0.03-0.02
Iowa St.B120.190.1770.8367.970.080.06
Florida St.ACC0.140.1766.6763.300.050.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.190.1717.6526.67-0.13-0.08
KansasB120.140.1782.6179.200.090.10
TexasB120.140.1766.6762.200.050.04
West VirginiaB120.190.1779.1778.100.110.09
RadfordBSth0.160.1652.1754.100.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.210.1627.2727.80-0.10-0.07
UNC AshevilleBSth0.200.1662.5063.450.050.04
Western CarolinaSC0.200.1531.8234.54-0.07-0.05
MercerSC0.190.1566.6767.110.060.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.150.1542.8641.34-0.02-0.03
St. John'sBE0.100.1425.0023.45-0.05-0.08
OklahomaB120.190.1486.9682.620.140.09
TCUB120.100.1445.8339.36-0.01-0.03
Miami FLACC0.140.1482.6177.580.090.08
Wake ForestACC0.190.1441.6739.90-0.03-0.03
LibertyBSth0.220.1334.7836.53-0.07-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.160.1321.7424.60-0.09-0.07
PresbyterianBSth0.160.1323.8125.49-0.08-0.06
Jacksonville St.OVC0.150.1224.0024.16-0.08-0.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.1213.0415.26-0.07-0.08
Tennessee TechOVC0.190.1265.2264.340.060.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.140.1260.8760.240.030.02
Wright St.Horz0.140.1254.1753.810.010.01
DaytonA100.090.1286.9682.160.070.07
DePaulBE0.100.1133.3334.02-0.03-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.140.1120.0019.73-0.09-0.07
MemphisAmer0.100.1158.3359.310.020.02
Notre DameACC0.090.1170.8367.930.040.04
VirginiaACC0.140.1183.3378.460.090.06
LouisvilleACC0.140.1179.1775.990.080.06
CampbellBSth0.110.1031.8232.08-0.04-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.100.0926.0928.41-0.05-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0950.0050.500.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0940.0042.85-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.100.0913.0416.42-0.08-0.06
USC UpstateASun0.150.0921.7422.42-0.08-0.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.0968.1867.730.040.03
LipscombASun0.100.0928.0030.49-0.04-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.140.0960.8762.470.030.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0925.0026.38-0.05-0.04
IllinoisB100.140.0945.8344.07-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0943.4850.64-0.010.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.0945.4554.18-0.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0929.1726.69-0.00-0.04
ButlerBE0.090.0970.8369.000.040.03
MarquetteBE0.140.0964.0057.890.040.01
Oral RobertsSum0.100.0941.6742.39-0.02-0.01
VillanovaBE0.140.0987.5086.850.110.06
DukeACC0.140.0875.0071.840.070.04
North CarolinaACC0.140.0883.3378.380.090.05
SyracuseACC0.140.0868.0064.090.050.02
Arkansas St.SB0.140.0840.9138.82-0.03-0.02
BradleyMVC0.090.0812.0011.95-0.07-0.06
MassachusettsA100.090.0843.4842.40-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.090.0872.7367.600.040.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.140.0838.1037.67-0.03-0.02
TroySB0.090.0822.7324.38-0.05-0.04
WagnerNEC0.090.0860.8762.520.020.02
DetroitHorz0.040.0845.4543.87-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0850.0052.870.000.00
Green BayHorz0.090.0856.5257.700.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.140.0829.1733.75-0.06-0.03
Michigan St.B100.090.0880.0081.560.050.05
PurdueB100.050.0880.0077.910.030.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.130.0830.4332.26-0.05-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.0628.5733.30-0.04-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0639.1341.05-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.0616.6719.49-0.07-0.04
FurmanSC0.090.0656.0054.430.010.01
SamfordSC0.050.0640.0041.68-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.090.0630.4329.49-0.04-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.0650.0049.320.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.100.0672.0073.080.040.03
HoustonAmer0.100.0670.8367.980.040.02
Illinois St.MVC0.100.0656.0054.080.010.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0673.0872.610.040.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.0668.1865.170.040.02
ColoradoP120.050.0670.8365.580.020.02
CreightonBE0.090.0664.0062.070.030.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0656.0052.870.010.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0635.0038.57-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0685.0083.440.030.04
HofstraCAA0.050.0666.6766.770.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.050.0658.3360.710.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0625.0033.23-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.050.0679.1777.200.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.050.0672.0069.130.020.02
RutgersB100.090.0621.7420.34-0.05-0.03
TulsaAmer0.050.0666.6764.700.020.02
UABCUSA0.050.0683.3379.820.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0673.9176.700.020.03
George WashingtonA100.090.0675.0071.960.050.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0665.2268.600.030.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0661.9065.330.010.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0636.0034.84-0.01-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.090.0652.0048.920.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.090.0679.1778.290.060.03
Arizona St.P120.090.0654.1751.700.010.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0624.0025.68-0.05-0.03
BryantNEC0.090.0624.0024.92-0.05-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.0612.5013.27-0.07-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.0621.7422.75-0.05-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0654.5552.530.010.00
ColumbiaIvy0.090.0666.6765.240.030.02
DuquesneA100.090.0660.8756.270.020.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.040.0652.1753.720.000.00
George MasonA100.050.0633.3333.63-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.050.0655.0053.670.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.090.0679.1777.510.060.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.040.069.5210.67-0.04-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0647.8348.57-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.040.0650.0051.280.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0672.7370.520.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0642.3146.12-0.01-0.00
NavyPat0.050.0664.0064.460.010.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0658.3358.580.020.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0629.1733.11-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.090.0662.5064.120.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0660.0057.650.020.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.090.0631.8235.12-0.03-0.02
NorthwesternB100.090.0664.0062.090.030.01
RichmondA100.050.0656.5255.820.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.040.0633.3336.31-0.01-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0683.3381.280.030.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0614.2924.90-0.07-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.040.0640.0043.49-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0652.1751.830.000.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0662.5057.730.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.040.0682.6183.030.030.04
VermontAE0.050.0652.0054.860.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0359.0961.280.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0319.0525.90-0.03-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0368.1867.110.020.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0336.8442.88-0.01-0.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0368.0066.640.020.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0352.1753.440.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0358.3360.900.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0366.6769.750.020.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0345.4549.05-0.00-0.00
VMISC0.000.0319.0519.67-0.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.050.0331.5831.68-0.02-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0354.5555.550.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0350.0054.180.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0347.8351.92-0.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0360.0062.250.000.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0325.0027.26-0.02-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0337.5037.41-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0327.2726.45-0.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.039.0917.14-0.04-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0340.9143.32-0.01-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0330.0031.76-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0372.2275.600.020.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0328.5732.75-0.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0313.0412.96-0.03-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.040.0335.0034.83-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.040.0343.4837.80-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.050.0382.6181.140.030.02
AlbanyAE0.050.0373.0873.780.020.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.040.0340.0040.34-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.050.0329.1731.19-0.02-0.01
ArmyPat0.050.0354.1754.290.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.040.0324.0026.44-0.02-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0356.0056.510.010.00
BucknellPat0.040.0352.1754.940.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.050.0328.5734.11-0.02-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.040.034.357.72-0.04-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.040.0372.0071.570.020.01
ColgatePat0.050.0343.4844.90-0.01-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0360.8758.900.010.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0314.2920.64-0.03-0.02
CornellIvy0.050.0342.1140.24-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.040.0340.0043.39-0.01-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0326.0927.89-0.02-0.01
LehighPat0.040.0339.1342.83-0.01-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0350.0051.110.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0322.2231.22-0.03-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.040.0320.0022.25-0.03-0.02
NebraskaB100.050.0352.0050.760.000.00
NJITASun0.050.0356.0055.640.010.00
North DakotaBSky0.050.0345.0048.13-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0360.0055.560.010.00
PennIvy0.040.0338.8937.69-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0334.7832.39-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0336.3636.29-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0352.1754.130.000.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0344.0043.56-0.01-0.00
StanfordP120.050.0347.6244.06-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0382.6183.010.000.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0376.1972.370.020.01
ToledoMAC0.040.0360.8762.080.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0356.5253.400.010.00
VCUA100.050.0370.8371.050.020.01
WashingtonP120.040.0362.5060.140.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0331.8232.68-0.00-0.01