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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Georgia

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:54.3
Current RPI:54
Expected SOS:26
Current SOS:30
Current Record:5-3
Expected Record:18-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:5-3
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:56
Expected OOC SOS:40



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-611.90.20%
23-715.00.55%
22-819.32.08%
21-924.46.10%
20-1030.612.01%
19-1138.917.70%
18-1249.619.91%
17-1361.817.36%
16-1476.012.25%
15-1591.37.20%
14-16107.03.25%
13-17122.20.92%
12-18139.10.36%
11-19161.00.07%
10-20158.00.02%
9-21178.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Georgia Tech (89.6)ACCA80-73L0%0.0
11-18Stony Brook (147.2)AEH80-70W100%0.0
11-21Troy (279.6)SBH82-60W100%0.0
11-23Florida Atlantic (175.4)CUSAH74-61W100%0.0
11-26Gonzaga (11.7)WCCN88-76L0%0.0
11-28Minnesota (52.8)B10N62-66L0%0.0
12-2Chattanooga (206.7)SCA55-86W100%0.0
12-7Colorado (66.2)P12H64-57W100%0.0
12-21Seton Hall (37.4)BEH0-062%3.5
12-27Mercer (245.5)SCH0-094%18.8
12-31Kansas St. (134.9)B12A0-057%2.1
1-3Norfolk St. (178.5)MEACH0-091%16.1
1-6Arkansas (42.2)SECH0-060%3.1
1-10LSU (67.0)SECA0-043%-2.0
1-14Vanderbilt (89.5)SECA0-042%-2.2
1-17Florida (39.0)SECH0-051%0.4
1-20Mississippi (98.8)SECH0-079%9.6
1-24Mississippi St. (214.6)SECA0-070%6.1
1-27Vanderbilt (89.5)SECH0-071%6.5
1-31South Carolina (43.8)SECA0-026%-7.5
2-3Kentucky (1.6)SECA0-03%-22.1
2-7Tennessee (131.3)SECH0-082%11.0
2-11Texas A&M (58.1)SECA0-037%-3.8
2-14Auburn (184.8)SECH0-089%14.4
2-17South Carolina (43.8)SECH0-054%1.3
2-21Alabama (83.6)SECA0-046%-1.2
2-25Mississippi (98.8)SECA0-053%0.8
2-28Missouri (178.6)SECH0-091%15.6
3-3Kentucky (1.6)SECH0-013%-13.4
3-7Auburn (184.8)SECA0-068%5.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
GeorgiaSEC28.0926.1259.3857.875.274.11
VanderbiltSEC0.003.9475.0061.630.000.92
KentuckySEC0.003.92100.0094.970.003.52
MississippiSEC0.523.9170.0053.890.210.30
AuburnSEC0.353.9144.4437.43-0.04-0.98
South CarolinaSEC0.003.9162.5064.600.001.14
TennesseeSEC0.002.3850.0047.140.00-0.14
AlabamaSEC0.002.3866.6754.680.000.22
Texas A&MSEC0.002.3677.7865.490.000.73
FloridaSEC0.002.3560.0065.470.000.73
ArkansasSEC0.002.3377.7873.040.001.07
LSUSEC0.002.3380.0064.350.000.67
MissouriSEC0.002.3344.4432.35-0.00-0.82
Mississippi St.SEC0.002.3350.0039.660.00-0.48
MercerSC0.001.8137.5043.77-0.00-0.23
ChattanoogaSC6.251.7250.0053.420.000.12
ColoradoP126.251.7275.0060.403.120.36
Georgia TechACC6.251.7275.0049.673.12-0.01
Kansas St.B120.001.7260.0037.040.00-0.45
Norfolk St.MEAC0.001.7250.0058.050.000.28
TroySB6.251.7240.0040.98-1.25-0.31
Seton HallBE0.001.7090.0068.260.000.62
Florida AtlanticCUSA6.251.6760.0054.741.250.16
GonzagaWCC6.251.6788.8990.624.861.35
MinnesotaB106.251.6775.0063.523.120.45
Stony BrookAE6.251.6737.5056.69-1.560.22
Western CarolinaSC0.350.2520.0041.46-0.21-0.04
BaylorB120.000.2290.0073.870.000.11
ClemsonACC0.000.2266.6745.670.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.310.1911.1144.62-0.24-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.690.1755.5649.500.08-0.00
UCLAP120.310.1772.7357.280.140.02
XavierBE0.000.1780.0070.960.000.07
Iowa St.B120.000.1788.8963.800.000.05
PurdueB100.000.1772.7363.730.000.05
KansasB120.000.1688.8969.390.000.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1544.4445.64-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.1430.0037.28-0.00-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1471.4363.890.000.04
FurmanSC0.000.1425.0029.59-0.00-0.06
ArizonaP120.310.14100.0080.590.310.09
LipscombASun0.350.1425.0042.64-0.17-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1488.8963.660.000.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.350.1457.1470.590.050.06
ProvidenceBE0.350.1472.7353.260.160.01
Wake ForestACC0.350.1450.0038.000.00-0.03
DaytonA100.000.1477.7870.120.000.05
North CarolinaACC0.000.1470.0071.630.000.06
Texas TechB120.000.1488.8955.910.000.02
TCUB120.000.14100.0066.180.000.04
MarshallCUSA0.000.1225.0038.92-0.00-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.350.1237.5034.19-0.09-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1242.8652.71-0.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.520.1242.8627.08-0.07-0.05
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1260.0064.610.000.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1255.5654.950.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.1260.0053.820.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.1133.3331.58-0.00-0.04
The CitadelSC0.350.1116.6730.84-0.23-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.1122.2237.75-0.00-0.03
VMISC0.000.1133.3339.22-0.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.1177.7876.240.000.06
Oregon St.P120.000.1177.7855.460.000.01
ButlerBE0.350.1180.0072.550.210.05
ColumbiaIvy0.350.1162.5064.770.090.03
MarquetteBE0.350.1155.5647.870.04-0.00
RutgersB100.000.1160.0035.070.00-0.03
St. John'sBE0.660.1187.5065.040.490.03
LouisvilleACC0.350.11100.0085.330.350.08
CreightonBE0.000.1172.7351.560.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1144.4447.53-0.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.1190.0081.860.000.07
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0933.3345.50-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0933.3345.28-0.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.09100.0071.820.000.04
Washington St.P120.310.0940.0028.86-0.06-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.090.0023.15-0.00-0.05
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0910.0018.58-0.00-0.05
DePaulBE0.000.0960.0034.110.00-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.350.0950.0053.850.000.01
HartfordAE0.000.0950.0051.050.000.00
MaineAE0.000.0911.1121.08-0.00-0.05
North FloridaASun0.000.0944.4456.91-0.000.01
UMBCAE0.350.0910.0020.91-0.28-0.05
Austin PeayOVC0.520.0822.2230.99-0.29-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0842.8655.64-0.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.350.0850.0049.620.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.350.0890.9188.390.280.06
PacificWCC0.000.0850.0038.180.00-0.02
OregonP120.000.0866.6758.060.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0860.0033.870.00-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0850.0040.880.00-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.080.0016.85-0.00-0.06
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0833.3342.19-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.350.0877.7869.190.190.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0840.0050.78-0.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0818.1828.02-0.00-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.0850.0037.510.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0866.6759.460.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0833.3334.28-0.00-0.03
YaleIvy0.000.0872.7367.180.000.03
OklahomaB120.000.0877.7867.290.000.03
SouthernSWAC0.350.080.0033.84-0.35-0.03
West VirginiaB120.000.0890.0066.940.000.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0642.8638.26-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0644.4451.04-0.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0666.6762.620.000.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0662.5071.290.000.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0036.67-0.00-0.02
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0050.330.000.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0616.6726.28-0.00-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0622.2240.44-0.00-0.01
USCP120.000.0660.0036.120.00-0.02
UtahP120.000.0677.7879.480.000.04
ElonCAA0.520.0637.5047.87-0.13-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.350.06100.0078.050.350.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.0642.8636.79-0.00-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0688.8981.310.000.04
AkronMAC0.000.0660.0056.560.000.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0633.3348.89-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0620.0034.08-0.00-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.060.0011.87-0.00-0.04
CornellIvy0.000.0655.5648.240.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0640.0050.32-0.000.00
HofstraCAA0.350.0677.7878.540.190.03
HowardMEAC0.000.0630.0043.91-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.350.0636.3633.67-0.09-0.02
New HampshireAE0.000.0657.1464.620.000.02
PrincetonIvy0.350.0627.2737.85-0.16-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0655.5654.360.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0614.2945.19-0.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0644.4457.85-0.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0014.79-0.00-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0618.1835.99-0.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0637.5037.96-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0636.3647.13-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0085.310.000.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0640.0046.73-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.000.0666.6767.300.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.0672.7365.930.000.02
IowaB100.000.0672.7362.590.000.01
La SalleA100.000.0650.0049.960.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0625.0023.43-0.00-0.03
NebraskaB100.000.0666.6743.780.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0681.8264.110.000.02
NorthwesternB100.350.0660.0040.620.07-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0690.9171.890.000.02
PennIvy0.000.0637.5033.00-0.00-0.02
Penn St.B100.000.0690.9153.850.000.00
PortlandWCC0.000.0666.6748.410.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0671.4357.100.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0654.5557.300.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0644.4444.78-0.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0056.800.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.350.0660.0064.620.070.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0082.080.000.04
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0687.5085.320.000.04
WinthropBSth0.000.0628.5747.31-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0675.0058.430.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0550.0044.900.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0537.5050.40-0.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0525.0049.09-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.000.0590.0075.520.000.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.050.0037.73-0.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0566.6752.340.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0550.0074.000.000.03
SMUAmer0.310.0570.0071.330.120.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0522.2241.92-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0575.0069.120.000.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0542.8649.98-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0536.3644.53-0.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0522.2228.69-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.520.030.0028.26-0.52-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.520.030.0017.51-0.52-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.520.0337.5038.60-0.13-0.01
HarvardIvy0.520.0385.7172.940.370.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0372.7367.750.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0018.94-0.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.520.0310.0027.42-0.42-0.01
UCFAmer0.520.0355.5634.940.06-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0366.6772.670.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0342.8637.65-0.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.350.0357.1461.670.050.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0390.0066.690.000.01
DrexelCAA0.350.0325.0037.13-0.17-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.350.0328.5757.26-0.150.00
StanfordP120.000.0375.0057.570.000.00
WyomingMWC0.350.0377.7873.370.190.01
AmericanPat0.000.0360.0065.400.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.350.0355.5661.390.040.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.0344.4447.53-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0012.36-0.00-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0370.0060.790.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.350.0333.3344.71-0.12-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.0333.3327.70-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0341.6744.33-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0344.4470.08-0.000.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.350.0325.0033.17-0.17-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.350.0330.0039.44-0.14-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0320.0029.81-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0337.5064.43-0.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.350.030.0031.74-0.35-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0366.6742.100.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0342.8638.75-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0087.140.000.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6766.340.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0366.6764.310.000.01
IndianaB100.000.0380.0057.630.000.00
IPFWSum0.350.0357.1456.900.050.00
MarylandB100.000.0390.9167.660.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0355.5659.990.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0355.5642.550.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0372.7373.150.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0310.0018.01-0.00-0.02
NevadaMWC0.000.0311.1125.02-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0370.0058.600.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0038.46-0.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.350.0325.0032.77-0.17-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0390.0084.680.000.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0344.4445.59-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.350.0362.5073.190.090.01
RiderMAAC0.350.0350.0052.800.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.310.0342.8642.32-0.04-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.310.0355.5640.500.03-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0337.5046.50-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.310.0311.1144.04-0.24-0.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6757.800.000.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0366.6751.430.000.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0387.5054.790.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0350.0053.700.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0355.5650.970.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0380.0069.620.000.01
VCUA100.000.0370.0071.420.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0355.5638.130.00-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0345.4544.07-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0333.3362.92-0.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0333.3332.09-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0350.0057.510.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0366.6772.340.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0340.0050.07-0.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0360.0055.630.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0344.4455.75-0.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0316.6727.56-0.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0333.3340.31-0.00-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0328.5742.17-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0357.1456.750.000.00