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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Georgia

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:140.0
Current RPI:140
Expected SOS:68
Current SOS:68
Current Record:15-17
Expected Record:15-17
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:225
Expected OOC SOS:127



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-17140.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Jacksonville (281.0)ASunH68-62W100%0.0
11-12Youngstown St. (188.0)HorzH56-68L0%0.0
11-15Southern Mississippi (31.0)CUSAH60-62L0%0.0
11-19Indiana (8.0)B10N53-66L0%0.0
11-20UCLA (26.0)P12N60-56L0%0.0
11-23East Tennessee St. (275.0)ASunH54-38W100%0.0
11-30South Florida (156.0)BEA64-53L0%0.0
12-4Georgia Tech (149.0)ACCA62-54L0%0.0
12-15Iona (98.0)MAACH78-81L0%0.0
12-18Mercer (137.0)ASunH58-49W100%0.0
12-22Southern California (118.0)P12H64-56W100%0.0
12-29Florida A&M (331.0)MEACH82-73W100%0.0
1-4George Washington (147.0)A10H52-41W100%0.0
1-9Florida (7.0)SECA77-44L0%0.0
1-12Mississippi St. (232.0)SECH61-72L0%0.0
1-16Missouri (36.0)SECA79-62L0%0.0
1-19Louisiana St. (86.0)SECH67-58W100%0.0
1-23Florida (7.0)SECH47-64L0%0.0
1-26Texas A&M (102.0)SECA52-59W100%0.0
1-30Auburn (252.0)SECH57-49W100%0.0
2-2South Carolina (222.0)SECA56-67W100%0.0
2-6Tennessee (59.0)SECA62-68W100%0.0
2-9Texas A&M (102.0)SECH52-46W100%0.0
2-12Alabama (60.0)SECH45-52L0%0.0
2-16Mississippi (47.0)SECA84-74L0%0.0
2-21Arkansas (89.0)SECA62-60L0%0.0
2-23South Carolina (222.0)SECH62-54W100%0.0
2-27Vanderbilt (120.0)SECA63-62L0%0.0
3-2Tennessee (59.0)SECH78-68W100%0.0
3-7Kentucky (56.0)SECH72-62W100%0.0
3-9Alabama (60.0)SECA61-58L0%0.0
3-14Louisiana St. (86.0)SECN63-68L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
GeorgiaSEC26.0826.0841.3041.30-4.54-4.54
AlabamaSEC3.803.8060.0060.000.760.76
Louisiana St.SEC3.773.7762.0762.070.910.91
FloridaSEC3.763.7677.4277.422.062.06
TennesseeSEC3.733.7366.6766.671.241.24
South CarolinaSEC3.713.7146.6746.67-0.25-0.25
Texas A&MSEC3.713.7158.0658.060.600.60
Mississippi St.SEC2.312.3129.0329.03-0.97-0.97
MississippiSEC2.292.2975.7675.761.181.18
MissouriSEC2.292.2968.7568.750.860.86
VanderbiltSEC2.242.2446.8846.88-0.14-0.14
ArkansasSEC2.212.2158.0658.060.360.36
KentuckySEC2.212.2167.7467.740.790.79
AuburnSEC2.192.1929.0329.03-0.92-0.92
JacksonvilleASun1.731.7341.3841.38-0.30-0.30
MercerASun1.711.7167.7467.740.610.61
East Tennessee St.ASun1.691.6930.0030.00-0.67-0.67
UCLAP121.641.6472.7372.730.740.74
Youngstown St.Horz1.611.6146.4346.43-0.12-0.12
Southern CaliforniaP121.611.6145.1645.16-0.16-0.16
George WashingtonA101.591.5944.8344.83-0.16-0.16
South FloridaBE1.591.5936.6736.67-0.42-0.42
IndianaB101.591.5981.2581.250.990.99
Florida A&MMEAC1.591.5921.4321.43-0.91-0.91
Georgia TechACC1.561.5650.0050.000.000.00
IonaMAAC1.561.5659.3859.380.290.29
Southern MississippiCUSA1.561.5670.9770.970.660.66
StetsonASun0.230.2346.6746.67-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.220.2237.9337.93-0.05-0.05
ArizonaP120.210.2178.1278.120.120.12
South Carolina UpstateASun0.200.2045.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.200.2010.0010.00-0.16-0.16
MarquetteBE0.200.2074.1974.190.100.10
North FloridaASun0.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.180.1868.7568.750.070.07
Central FloridaCUSA0.170.1762.0762.070.040.04
Arizona St.P120.170.1763.6463.640.050.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.150.1514.2914.29-0.11-0.11
Northern KentuckyASun0.150.1540.7440.74-0.03-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.150.1517.2417.24-0.10-0.10
ManhattanMAAC0.150.1543.7543.75-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
Washington St.P120.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
ClemsonACC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Virginia CommonwealthA100.120.1276.4776.470.070.07
DaytonA100.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
VillanovaBE0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
RiderMAAC0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.120.1270.3770.370.050.05
MemphisCUSA0.120.1288.2488.240.090.09
Florida St.ACC0.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.120.1280.6580.650.070.07
CaliforniaP120.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
WisconsinB100.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
StanfordP120.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.100.1058.8258.820.020.02
MassachusettsA100.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Seton HallBE0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
VirginiaACC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
HoustonCUSA0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
XavierA100.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
LouisvilleBE0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
Wake ForestACC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
RutgersBE0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Houston BaptistGWC0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
OaklandSum0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Oregon St.P120.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
OregonP120.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Middle TennesseeSB0.090.0984.8584.850.070.07
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0852.9452.940.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Miami FLACC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Texas TechB120.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
Notre DameBE0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
CincinnatiBE0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
St. John'sBE0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
ButlerA100.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Kansas St.B120.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
St. LouisA100.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
MarshallCUSA0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
DenverWAC0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
TexasB120.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
UtahP120.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
MichiganB100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
MinnesotaB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
OklahomaB120.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
TroySB0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
MaristMAAC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
DuquesneA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.057.147.14-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
ConnecticutBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
George MasonCAA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
MarylandACC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
RiceCUSA0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
SyracuseBE0.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0553.8553.850.000.00
ElonSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
GramblingSWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
LamarSlnd0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
NC AshevilleBSth0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticSB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
ArmyPat0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
IowaB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Penn St.B100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
St. Peter'sMAAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0585.1985.190.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
YaleIvy0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Florida InternationalSB0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
CharlotteA100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
TempleA100.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
PittsburghBE0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
St. Mary'sWCC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
The CitadelSC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
BaylorB120.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonSC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.CAA0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Long IslandNEC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
New Orleansind0.020.0218.1818.18-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
SamfordSC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Texas San AntonioWAC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckySB0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
WinthropBSth0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
BucknellPat0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
DavidsonSC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacNEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0228.0028.00-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0242.3142.31-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01