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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Georgia

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:74.0
Current RPI:74
Expected SOS:64
Current SOS:64
Current Record:19-13
Expected Record:19-13
Current Conf Record:13-7
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:202
Expected OOC SOS:139



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1374.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Wofford (153.0)SCH72-52W100%0.0
11-15Georgia Tech (157.0)ACCH71-80L0%0.0
11-21Davidson (126.0)SCN94-82L0%0.0
11-22Temple (175.0)AmerN83-81L0%0.0
11-24Nebraska (48.0)B10N65-73L0%0.0
11-29Appalachian St. (335.0)SCH71-53W100%0.0
12-2Chattanooga (243.0)SCH87-56W100%0.0
12-14Lipscomb (209.0)ASunH84-75W100%0.0
12-19Gardner Webb (241.0)BSthH58-49W100%0.0
12-21Western Carolina (221.0)SCH65-63W100%0.0
12-28Colorado (34.0)P12A84-70L0%0.0
1-3George Washington (29.0)A10A73-55L0%0.0
1-8Missouri (49.0)SECA64-70W100%0.0
1-11Alabama (124.0)SECH66-58W100%0.0
1-14Florida (1.0)SECA72-50L0%0.0
1-18Arkansas (77.0)SECH66-61W100%0.0
1-22South Carolina (140.0)SECH97-76W100%0.0
1-25Kentucky (17.0)SECA79-54L0%0.0
1-29Vanderbilt (120.0)SECH54-59L0%0.0
2-1Auburn (169.0)SECA74-67L0%0.0
2-6LSU (83.0)SECH91-78W100%0.0
2-8Texas A&M (148.0)SECH62-50W100%0.0
2-12Mississippi St. (245.0)SECA55-75W100%0.0
2-15Mississippi (94.0)SECH61-60W100%0.0
2-18Tennessee (42.0)SECA67-48L0%0.0
2-22South Carolina (140.0)SECA56-73W100%0.0
2-25Missouri (49.0)SECH71-56W100%0.0
3-1Arkansas (77.0)SECA87-75L0%0.0
3-5Mississippi St. (245.0)SECH66-45W100%0.0
3-8LSU (83.0)SECA61-69W100%0.0
3-14Mississippi (94.0)SECN75-73W100%0.0
3-15Kentucky (17.0)SECN70-58L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
GeorgiaSEC26.1226.1257.6957.694.024.02
KentuckySEC3.853.8568.7568.751.441.44
MississippiSEC3.823.8261.2961.290.860.86
South CarolinaSEC3.783.7843.7543.75-0.47-0.47
Mississippi St.SEC3.773.7745.1645.16-0.37-0.37
LSUSEC3.773.7763.3363.331.011.01
ArkansasSEC3.773.7766.6766.671.261.26
MissouriSEC3.753.7570.9770.971.571.57
VanderbiltSEC2.312.3146.6746.67-0.15-0.15
FloridaSEC2.302.3093.9493.942.032.03
AlabamaSEC2.262.2640.0040.00-0.45-0.45
Texas A&MSEC2.262.2654.8454.840.220.22
TennesseeSEC2.232.2361.2961.290.500.50
AuburnSEC2.232.2344.8344.83-0.23-0.23
Western CarolinaSC1.781.7853.3353.330.120.12
WoffordSC1.771.7760.7160.710.380.38
ChattanoogaSC1.751.7553.5753.570.130.13
DavidsonSC1.721.7260.0060.000.340.34
Appalachian St.SC1.721.7220.0020.00-1.03-1.03
Gardner WebbBSth1.641.6451.7251.720.060.06
Georgia TechACC1.641.6446.8846.88-0.10-0.10
LipscombASun1.591.5950.0050.000.000.00
ColoradoP121.561.5666.6766.670.520.52
George WashingtonA101.561.5674.1974.190.760.76
NebraskaB101.561.5660.0060.000.310.31
TempleAmer1.561.5626.6726.67-0.73-0.73
The CitadelSC0.340.3413.7913.79-0.25-0.25
SamfordSC0.300.3033.3333.33-0.10-0.10
ElonSC0.260.2655.1755.170.030.03
ClemsonACC0.240.2462.5062.500.060.06
UNC GreensboroSC0.240.2437.9337.93-0.06-0.06
Georgia SouthernSC0.240.2438.7138.71-0.05-0.05
FurmanSC0.240.2425.9325.93-0.12-0.12
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.190.1930.7730.77-0.07-0.07
Kennesaw St.ASun0.150.1513.7913.79-0.11-0.11
USC UpstateASun0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
IllinoisB100.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
UCLAP120.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.1420.6920.69-0.08-0.08
High PointBSth0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
UABCUSA0.130.1355.1755.170.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.1361.7661.760.030.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
DukeACC0.120.1276.4776.470.070.07
NorthwesternB100.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
MassachusettsA100.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
MemphisAmer0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
BaylorB120.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
WinthropBSth0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.110.1113.3313.33-0.08-0.08
CincinnatiAmer0.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
East Tennessee St.ASun0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
MinnesotaB100.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
IUPUISum0.100.1010.3410.34-0.08-0.08
VCUA100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
XavierBE0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
BelmontOVC0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
LongwoodBSth0.100.1014.2914.29-0.07-0.07
Penn St.B100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
LouisvilleAmer0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.1034.6234.62-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
DaytonA100.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
CaliforniaP120.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
AkronMAC0.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
StetsonASun0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
RadfordBSth0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
Saint LouisA100.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
Ohio St.B100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
UCFAmer0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
RutgersAmer0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.070.07100.00100.000.070.07
NevadaMWC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
ButlerBE0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Miami FLACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
VirginiaACC0.070.0782.3582.350.050.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0725.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0730.3030.30-0.03-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
ProvidenceBE0.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
ArizonaP120.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
USCP120.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
VMIBSth0.050.0555.5655.560.010.01
MaineAE0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.2121.21-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
OklahomaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
MarylandACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Western KentuckySB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Washington St.P120.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01
HofstraCAA0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
PittsburghACC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
St. John'sBE0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
SyracuseACC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.020.0286.2186.210.020.02
Oregon St.P120.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
StanfordP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
WyomingMWC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00