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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Georgia

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:71.7
Current RPI:102
Expected SOS:20
Current SOS:55
Current Record:4-3
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:4-3
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:77
Expected OOC SOS:37



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-817.10.24%
21-921.20.70%
20-1026.32.40%
19-1133.45.25%
18-1241.810.12%
17-1352.014.53%
16-1463.318.48%
15-1576.617.71%
14-1691.113.91%
13-17106.09.24%
12-18122.84.89%
11-19139.51.88%
10-20156.10.46%
9-21169.60.16%
8-22186.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Clemson (70.5)ACCA74-64L0%0.0
11-14UNC Asheville (97.3)BSthH60-46W100%0.0
11-17Furman (147.4)SCH84-78W100%0.0
11-21George Washington (189.2)A10N73-81W100%0.0
11-22Kansas (7.6)B12N65-54L0%0.0
11-25Gardner Webb (192.4)BSthH77-59W100%0.0
12-4Marquette (46.7)BEH79-89L0%0.0
12-14Louisiana Lafayette (101.3)SBH0-077%8.9
12-17Charleston Southern (265.9)BSthH0-096%20.6
12-20Georgia Tech (191.7)ACCA0-064%4.2
12-23Oakland (95.3)HorzA0-047%-0.8
12-29Auburn (88.3)SECA0-046%-1.1
1-4South Carolina (19.4)SECH0-039%-3.4
1-7Missouri (183.4)SECH0-077%9.0
1-11Mississippi (120.3)SECA0-056%1.8
1-14Florida (9.5)SECA0-016%-12.0
1-17Vanderbilt (79.2)SECH0-062%3.8
1-21Texas A&M (42.8)SECA0-025%-8.0
1-25Alabama (122.0)SECH0-066%4.9
1-28Texas (118.9)B12H0-065%4.5
1-31Kentucky (9.3)SECA0-09%-16.4
2-4South Carolina (19.4)SECA0-021%-9.7
2-7Florida (9.5)SECH0-032%-5.7
2-11Tennessee (130.0)SECA0-052%0.6
2-14Mississippi St. (152.0)SECH0-078%9.4
2-18Kentucky (9.3)SECH0-020%-10.1
2-23Alabama (122.0)SECA0-045%-1.4
2-25LSU (93.4)SECH0-070%6.4
3-1Auburn (88.3)SECH0-067%5.2
3-4Arkansas (43.1)SECA0-031%-6.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
GeorgiaSEC28.5026.1148.2849.28-0.98-0.37
AlabamaSEC0.003.9957.1452.320.000.19
FloridaSEC0.003.9387.5075.180.001.98
KentuckySEC0.003.9387.5082.590.002.56
South CarolinaSEC0.003.93100.0079.480.002.32
AuburnSEC0.003.9185.7158.410.000.66
TennesseeSEC0.002.3540.0040.88-0.00-0.43
VanderbiltSEC0.452.3550.0046.520.00-0.16
MississippiSEC0.002.3275.0048.660.00-0.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.002.3275.0048.940.00-0.05
ArkansasSEC0.002.3285.7166.100.000.75
LSUSEC0.002.3271.4349.850.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.002.3257.1443.220.00-0.31
Texas A&MSEC0.002.2966.6765.890.000.73
UNC AshevilleBSth8.181.8566.6769.662.730.73
Charleston SouthernBSth0.001.8420.0038.98-0.00-0.41
ClemsonACC7.141.8366.6753.302.380.12
Gardner WebbBSth7.141.8240.0054.04-1.430.15
KansasB127.651.8085.7175.065.470.90
TexasB120.001.8057.1438.790.00-0.40
Georgia TechACC0.001.7557.1435.990.00-0.49
FurmanSC7.651.7340.0058.25-1.530.28
MarquetteBE7.141.6971.4365.253.060.52
George WashingtonA107.141.6762.5043.081.79-0.23
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.001.6771.4365.400.000.51
OaklandHorz0.001.6785.7178.020.000.93
OklahomaB120.510.2471.4348.350.22-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.600.2433.3327.06-0.20-0.11
High PointBSth0.510.2442.8646.48-0.07-0.02
LibertyBSth0.000.2133.3348.07-0.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.600.2150.0071.070.000.09
Florida St.ACC0.400.2087.5065.250.300.06
MercerSC0.000.1942.8647.76-0.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.1987.5062.040.000.05
CampbellBSth0.000.1842.8639.20-0.00-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.000.1820.0021.80-0.00-0.10
RadfordBSth0.000.1828.5734.28-0.00-0.06
USC UpstateASun0.510.1744.4441.30-0.06-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.1785.7162.990.000.04
Coastal CarolinaSB0.510.1725.0038.83-0.26-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1785.7174.990.000.08
Kansas St.B120.000.1787.5059.310.000.03
Seton HallBE0.000.1671.4354.560.000.02
UABCUSA1.440.1650.0059.920.000.03
North FloridaASun0.000.1612.5034.79-0.00-0.05
TCUB120.000.16100.0061.680.000.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.140.0027.12-0.00-0.06
Georgia St.SB0.000.1450.0060.620.000.03
MichiganB100.450.1475.0066.460.220.05
SyracuseACC0.000.1471.4366.700.000.05
VCUA100.510.1475.0073.060.260.06
North CarolinaACC0.000.1487.5081.960.000.09
DavidsonA100.510.1471.4363.170.220.04
DukeACC0.450.1488.8978.400.350.08
Miami FLACC0.000.1475.0066.100.000.04
West VirginiaB120.000.1485.7183.660.000.09
BaylorB120.000.13100.0076.590.000.07
Iowa St.B120.000.1371.4368.070.000.05
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1371.4354.310.000.01
VMISC0.600.120.0016.78-0.60-0.08
Western CarolinaSC0.450.1128.5723.12-0.19-0.06
PittsburghACC1.040.1175.0049.180.52-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1175.0066.370.000.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1183.3379.850.000.07
WoffordSC0.000.110.0034.81-0.00-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.000.1171.4373.040.000.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1128.5731.44-0.00-0.04
Little RockSB0.000.1166.6761.330.000.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1162.5067.390.000.04
Wake ForestACC0.000.1175.0054.490.000.01
XavierBE0.510.1187.5070.890.380.05
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1157.1429.790.00-0.04
DaytonA100.000.1171.4373.490.000.05
LouisvilleACC0.000.1187.5075.590.000.06
DuquesneA100.000.1144.4442.03-0.00-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0971.4356.260.000.01
HowardMEAC1.040.0816.6744.34-0.69-0.01
NebraskaB100.510.0857.1444.890.07-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0816.6729.81-0.00-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0825.0027.53-0.00-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0850.0071.020.000.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0875.0051.040.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0820.0041.92-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.08100.0077.380.000.05
OregonP120.000.0875.0072.250.000.04
Michigan St.B100.000.0855.5658.610.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0887.5068.020.000.03
SienaMAAC1.350.0837.5052.01-0.340.00
ButlerBE0.000.08100.0074.440.000.04
CreightonBE0.000.08100.0076.630.000.04
MemphisAmer0.000.0875.0055.500.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0828.5723.78-0.00-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.400.0857.1433.230.06-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.000.08100.0091.920.000.07
UCLAP120.000.08100.0086.690.000.06
BelmontOVC0.000.0850.0064.350.000.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0871.4370.390.000.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0825.0055.33-0.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0875.0054.670.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0640.0054.54-0.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0021.22-0.00-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0642.8643.60-0.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0642.8651.95-0.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0642.8645.44-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0628.5732.62-0.00-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0657.1453.990.000.00
SamfordSC0.000.0662.5056.520.000.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0043.390.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0650.0030.350.00-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0662.5051.790.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0642.8638.17-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0616.6729.80-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0650.0066.300.000.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0022.31-0.00-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.0671.4357.970.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.0675.0068.370.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0642.8647.11-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0614.2936.02-0.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0655.5647.890.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0637.5047.37-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.000.0612.5033.04-0.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0675.0070.620.000.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0657.1471.520.000.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.0675.0056.590.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0625.0020.78-0.00-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0633.3339.94-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0637.5037.03-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0628.5728.24-0.00-0.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0612.5023.93-0.00-0.03
VermontAE0.000.0662.5071.320.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0084.840.000.04
VirginiaACC0.000.0687.5078.510.000.03
WisconsinB100.000.0677.7876.040.000.03
DePaulBE0.000.0666.6735.430.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0585.7178.280.000.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.050.0035.95-0.00-0.02
Penn St.B100.400.0566.6746.420.13-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0550.0058.040.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.0585.7176.240.000.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0562.5052.330.000.00
Arizona St.P120.000.0562.5040.460.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0537.5044.39-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0571.4351.460.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0533.3339.61-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0550.0050.840.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0557.1471.940.000.02
George MasonA100.000.0562.5046.900.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0562.5043.220.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.450.050.0038.27-0.45-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0571.4358.600.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0587.5076.230.000.03
PurdueB100.000.0575.0075.340.000.03
RichmondA100.000.0550.0048.210.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0542.8645.30-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.600.0350.0056.740.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0314.2942.67-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.600.0366.6766.860.200.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0328.5741.52-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0320.0022.75-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0312.5037.99-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0371.4359.470.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0312.5030.68-0.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0017.61-0.00-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.0350.0062.380.000.01
NavyPat0.600.0325.0037.38-0.30-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0377.7871.970.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0340.0041.93-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0342.8637.34-0.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0350.0044.400.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0387.5068.610.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0342.8633.23-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0322.2241.71-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0024.64-0.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.0342.8636.19-0.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0350.0045.970.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6736.03-0.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0013.46-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0034.27-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0314.2931.35-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0342.8656.04-0.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0328.5742.90-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0366.6761.550.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.510.030.0017.13-0.51-0.02
DenverSum0.000.0342.8645.01-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0357.1450.080.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0366.6740.030.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.450.030.0039.53-0.45-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0362.5050.710.000.00
IUPUISum0.450.0337.5051.64-0.110.00
LehighPat0.000.0342.8666.67-0.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0342.8630.92-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0316.6738.58-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0020.75-0.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0383.3371.480.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0371.4368.050.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0325.0022.93-0.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0350.0041.990.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.0340.0058.82-0.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0375.0061.490.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0383.3377.100.000.02
USCP120.000.03100.0076.680.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0320.0035.47-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0337.5035.09-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0375.0086.710.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.400.030.0023.69-0.40-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0333.3336.74-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0342.8627.96-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0366.6766.340.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.0375.0062.620.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0371.4355.160.000.00
FordhamA100.000.0350.0041.310.00-0.00
Fort WayneSum0.000.0371.4370.210.000.01
HarvardIvy0.400.0320.0046.79-0.24-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0325.0043.41-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.450.0387.5074.490.330.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0357.1454.360.000.00
La SalleA100.000.0366.6755.540.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.400.030.0034.47-0.40-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0325.0048.10-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0311.1148.19-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0061.240.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0357.1458.940.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0375.0066.170.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0362.5069.130.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0333.3332.35-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0357.1449.130.00-0.00
StanfordP120.450.0366.6758.060.150.00
TempleAmer0.000.0375.0064.920.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0385.7170.060.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0362.5043.800.00-0.00