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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Wofford

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:244.6
Current RPI:300
Expected SOS:176
Current SOS:109
Current Record:0-6
Expected Record:10-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-5
Current OOC Record:0-6
Expected OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC RPI:309
Expected OOC SOS:167



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1089.00.01%
17-1199.00.04%
16-12118.30.15%
15-13140.70.72%
14-14157.91.98%
13-15178.64.91%
12-16199.110.89%
11-17220.516.14%
10-18241.419.39%
9-19261.118.33%
8-20278.514.00%
7-21294.58.02%
6-22308.33.62%
5-23318.61.40%
4-24327.60.31%
3-25335.60.07%
2-26333.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wofford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12LSU (101.1)SECA91-69L0%0.0
11-21Vermont (84.2)AEN59-60L0%0.0
11-22Bradley (282.0)MVCN70-62L0%0.0
11-23Kent St. (195.3)MACN66-59L0%0.0
11-27Colorado (75.1)P12A75-60L0%0.0
12-3Miami FL (42.1)ACCA74-57L0%0.0
12-10TCU (48.5)B12A0-05%-19.5
12-15Austin Peay (230.6)OVCH0-067%5.4
12-19Coastal Carolina (218.5)SBA0-035%-4.6
12-22Georgia Tech (192.1)ACCA0-023%-8.9
12-31Mercer (185.3)SCH0-054%1.1
1-2The Citadel (299.0)SCH0-083%11.2
1-5Chattanooga (78.8)SCA0-013%-13.3
1-7Samford (165.0)SCA0-031%-6.1
1-14Furman (140.5)SCH0-042%-2.3
1-19VMI (322.2)SCH0-084%11.8
1-22East Tennessee St. (67.5)SCA0-09%-15.9
1-25UNC Greensboro (173.7)SCH0-051%0.4
1-28Western Carolina (271.5)SCA0-068%5.6
2-2The Citadel (299.0)SCA0-066%5.0
2-4Mercer (185.3)SCA0-033%-5.2
2-6East Tennessee St. (67.5)SCH0-021%-9.7
2-9Samford (165.0)SCH0-051%0.2
2-11Chattanooga (78.8)SCH0-028%-7.0
2-15UNC Greensboro (173.7)SCA0-031%-5.8
2-18Western Carolina (271.5)SCH0-084%11.8
2-22VMI (322.2)SCA0-068%5.6
2-25Furman (140.5)SCA0-024%-8.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wofford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wofford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wofford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WoffordSC28.2226.430.0036.72-28.22-7.02
Western CarolinaSC0.464.6128.5722.93-0.20-2.50
ChattanoogaSC0.004.6175.0074.220.002.23
East Tennessee St.SC0.004.5883.3379.550.002.71
FurmanSC0.004.5842.8656.83-0.000.63
MercerSC0.004.5842.8647.02-0.00-0.27
SamfordSC0.004.5862.5056.310.000.58
The CitadelSC0.004.5750.0030.670.00-1.77
UNC GreensboroSC0.004.5771.4355.340.000.49
VMISC0.004.570.0015.95-0.00-3.11
Miami FLACC8.331.8875.0065.594.170.59
Coastal CarolinaSB0.001.8525.0038.05-0.00-0.44
BradleyMVC8.331.8228.5723.18-3.57-0.97
Georgia TechACC0.001.8257.1434.970.00-0.55
TCUB120.001.82100.0059.790.000.36
Austin PeayOVC0.001.7933.3336.83-0.00-0.47
ColoradoP128.331.7971.4361.153.570.40
Kent St.MAC8.331.7950.0052.620.000.09
LSUSEC8.331.7966.6745.892.78-0.15
VermontAE8.331.7957.1470.411.190.73
PresbyterianBSth0.000.2628.5724.39-0.00-0.13
Virginia TechACC0.000.2285.7162.500.000.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.2262.5071.850.000.10
CampbellBSth0.000.1942.8639.64-0.00-0.04
West VirginiaB120.000.1985.7183.250.000.12
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1950.0045.920.00-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1966.6761.690.000.04
TennesseeSEC0.000.1850.0044.700.00-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.1877.7855.180.000.02
AuburnSEC0.000.1885.7157.280.000.03
DaytonA100.000.1671.4373.270.000.07
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1675.0066.120.000.05
Iowa St.B120.460.1575.0071.330.230.07
ClemsonACC0.000.1571.4354.560.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.1588.8967.470.000.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1333.3351.98-0.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.1328.5734.49-0.00-0.04
High PointBSth0.000.1337.5044.87-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1325.0030.02-0.00-0.05
LibertyBSth0.000.1328.5746.79-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.1362.5053.550.000.01
NavyPat0.000.1333.3338.56-0.00-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.520.1216.6729.83-0.35-0.05
North CarolinaACC0.000.1287.5081.910.000.08
UMBCAE0.000.1280.0054.190.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.1288.8978.430.000.07
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1225.0027.74-0.00-0.05
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1216.6730.09-0.00-0.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1242.8643.55-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.1262.5074.160.000.06
AkronMAC0.000.1271.4368.930.000.05
FloridaSEC0.460.1277.7872.930.260.06
George MasonA101.120.1262.5046.490.28-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1257.1451.810.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1275.0047.520.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1275.0050.980.000.00
Notre DameACC0.520.12100.0076.970.520.06
TexasB120.520.1250.0038.730.00-0.03
WashingtonP120.000.1257.1452.140.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0955.5637.870.00-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.520.0957.1449.640.07-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.090.0020.63-0.00-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.520.0942.8638.35-0.07-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0955.5646.770.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0916.6738.87-0.00-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.0971.4357.210.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0987.5069.040.000.03
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0950.0045.130.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0937.5028.47-0.00-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.460.090.0026.22-0.46-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0962.5067.590.000.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.0957.1451.740.000.00
DukeACC0.000.0990.0080.060.000.05
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0960.0067.820.000.03
OhioMAC0.000.0983.3371.500.000.04
Oregon St.P120.000.0925.0023.62-0.00-0.05
StanfordP120.460.0966.6758.600.150.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0962.5062.080.000.02
Texas TechB120.000.0987.5061.660.000.02
Wichita St.MVC0.600.0977.7886.650.330.07
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0720.0038.50-0.00-0.02
RichmondA100.000.0750.0048.500.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0612.5030.51-0.00-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.0612.5030.11-0.00-0.03
Fort WayneSum0.000.0662.5070.890.000.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.0655.5647.600.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0650.0060.950.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0657.1459.020.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0650.0042.770.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0625.0026.46-0.00-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0675.0055.480.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0644.4441.55-0.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.520.0650.0041.700.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0612.5031.01-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0687.5082.440.000.04
DavidsonA100.000.0671.4362.990.000.02
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0021.30-0.00-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0670.0050.010.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0022.47-0.00-0.03
FordhamA100.000.0650.0041.640.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0650.0061.350.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0614.2943.08-0.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0657.1456.540.000.01
Little RockSB0.000.0666.6761.400.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0677.7864.250.000.02
MichiganB100.000.0677.7865.840.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0637.5037.96-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0675.0069.680.000.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0642.8637.05-0.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0677.7862.010.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0625.0023.99-0.00-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.000.0637.5031.15-0.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0019.08-0.00-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0625.0040.17-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0044.180.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0650.0059.840.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0644.4453.29-0.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0683.3377.290.000.03
WinthropBSth0.000.0650.0071.340.000.03
BYUWCC0.000.0662.5067.080.000.02
AlbanyAE0.000.0642.8660.66-0.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.520.0650.0050.170.000.00
BaylorB120.000.06100.0076.070.000.03
BinghamtonAE0.000.0650.0042.750.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0657.1429.760.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0625.0040.78-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0633.3352.03-0.000.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0687.5064.760.000.02
DrakeMVC0.000.060.0020.21-0.00-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0650.0056.080.000.01
HartfordAE0.000.0622.2226.44-0.00-0.03
HofstraCAA1.040.0655.5643.870.12-0.01
HoustonAmer1.120.0675.0075.180.560.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0642.8650.98-0.000.00
KansasB120.000.0688.8977.470.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0688.8956.710.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0687.5075.690.000.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0671.4358.830.000.01
MaineAE0.000.0614.2923.40-0.00-0.03
MississippiSEC0.000.0675.0047.990.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0660.0058.900.000.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0662.5062.120.000.01
North FloridaASun1.060.0612.5034.49-0.79-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.600.0644.4443.25-0.07-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0642.8645.50-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0633.3352.49-0.000.00
OklahomaB120.000.0671.4348.030.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0671.4354.010.000.00
OregonP120.000.0675.0072.800.000.03
PittsburghACC0.000.0675.0048.980.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.520.06100.0078.180.520.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0657.1449.420.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0637.5043.19-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0671.4365.470.000.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0650.0066.380.000.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0637.5047.57-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0620.0035.15-0.00-0.02
UtahP120.000.0680.0058.220.000.01
VCUA100.600.0675.0072.930.300.03
Washington St.P120.000.0642.8629.20-0.00-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0357.1464.500.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0050.980.000.00
IndianaB100.000.0387.5074.510.000.02
LipscombASun0.000.0311.1132.47-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0357.1453.860.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0385.7169.920.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0337.5035.03-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0017.16-0.00-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0371.4363.080.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0025.31-0.00-0.02
TroySB0.000.0342.8636.07-0.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0357.1448.110.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0312.5033.31-0.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.29-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.0377.7870.290.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0074.830.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0375.0058.720.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0320.0022.08-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.600.0328.5731.07-0.26-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.520.0371.4360.090.220.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0342.8643.78-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0020.72-0.00-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0371.4355.680.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0328.5738.92-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0355.5642.150.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.600.0325.0031.76-0.30-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0333.3349.39-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.0387.5082.220.000.02
MaristMAAC0.520.0344.4434.60-0.06-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.600.030.0025.17-0.60-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0362.5044.840.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.520.0377.7871.770.290.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0325.0035.75-0.00-0.01
NJITASun0.000.0344.4451.58-0.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.600.0362.5066.500.150.01
PennIvy0.460.0333.3356.66-0.150.00
Penn St.B100.000.0366.6746.170.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.520.0357.1450.730.070.00
ProvidenceBE0.520.0377.7859.940.290.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.520.0328.5737.54-0.22-0.01
RutgersB100.460.0387.5050.250.350.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.520.030.0022.30-0.52-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0057.950.000.00
SeattleWAC0.520.0316.6738.83-0.35-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0333.3350.05-0.000.00
SMUAmer0.000.0366.6766.650.000.01
South DakotaSum0.600.0350.0046.820.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.0340.0058.88-0.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.600.0320.0017.37-0.36-0.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0312.5023.82-0.00-0.02
UCLAP120.000.03100.0086.650.000.02
UNLVMWC0.000.0362.5042.780.00-0.00
USCP120.000.03100.0076.400.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6735.90-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0362.5052.060.000.00
XavierBE0.000.0387.5070.880.000.01
YaleIvy0.520.0342.8663.63-0.070.01