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Through games of Feb 12, 2016.


Wofford

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:179.1
Current RPI:184
Expected SOS:204
Current SOS:188
Current Record:11-13
Expected Record:14-15
Current Conf Record:9-4
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-3
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:287
Expected OOC SOS:207



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-13144.95.62%
15-14161.224.28%
14-15178.037.87%
13-16195.524.83%
12-17213.76.95%
11-18232.70.44%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wofford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Missouri (222.3)SECA83-74L0%0.0
11-18North Carolina (10.8)ACCA78-58L0%0.0
11-21Maryland Eastern Shore (274.6)MEACH73-63W100%0.0
11-24Columbia (123.0)IvyA70-59L0%0.0
11-28Presbyterian (335.9)BSthA58-68W100%0.0
12-1Georgia Tech (87.9)ACCA77-61L0%0.0
12-6Clemson (108.7)ACCA66-51L0%0.0
12-14Coastal Carolina (168.1)BSthH63-71L0%0.0
12-19Vanderbilt (53.1)SECA80-56L0%0.0
12-22Austin Peay (230.5)OVCA84-77L0%0.0
12-31Harvard (208.9)IvyA77-57L0%0.0
1-2UNC Greensboro (285.3)SCH87-76W100%0.0
1-5VMI (329.9)SCA61-65W100%0.0
1-9Samford (252.8)SCH69-64W100%0.0
1-11Chattanooga (46.4)SCH68-77L0%0.0
1-14The Citadel (307.1)SCA83-86W100%0.0
1-16Mercer (139.1)SCA70-69L0%0.0
1-23Furman (157.2)SCA63-62L0%0.0
1-28East Tennessee St. (118.9)SCH87-73W100%0.0
1-30Western Carolina (223.5)SCH85-66W100%0.0
2-4Chattanooga (46.4)SCA79-63L0%0.0
2-6Samford (252.8)SCA75-78W100%0.0
2-8VMI (329.9)SCH92-60W100%0.0
2-11Mercer (139.1)SCH79-70W100%0.0
2-13The Citadel (307.1)SCH0-091%14.4
2-15UNC Greensboro (285.3)SCA0-056%1.7
2-20Furman (157.2)SCH0-062%3.2
2-25Western Carolina (223.5)SCA0-051%0.1
2-27East Tennessee St. (118.9)SCA0-036%-3.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wofford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wofford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wofford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WoffordSC26.4426.4351.0453.600.551.91
FurmanSC3.034.4754.1753.340.250.30
SamfordSC4.934.4743.4844.77-0.64-0.47
The CitadelSC2.974.4631.8231.40-1.08-1.66
East Tennessee St.SC2.894.4663.6462.340.791.10
UNC GreensboroSC2.904.4627.2728.91-1.32-1.88
MercerSC4.884.4468.1868.381.771.63
Western CarolinaSC2.854.4333.3335.30-0.95-1.30
VMISC4.794.3921.0521.38-2.77-2.51
ChattanoogaSC4.784.3681.8282.463.042.83
PresbyterianBSth2.412.0125.0026.50-1.21-0.95
Georgia TechACC2.171.8752.1750.380.090.01
North CarolinaACC2.221.8482.6177.671.441.02
ClemsonACC2.181.8456.5256.980.280.26
ColumbiaIvy2.181.8266.6764.340.730.52
Austin PeayOVC2.211.8137.5040.80-0.55-0.33
Coastal CarolinaBSth2.181.7955.0055.900.220.21
HarvardIvy2.131.7835.0036.87-0.64-0.47
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.171.7830.4334.96-0.85-0.54
MissouriSEC2.171.7830.4327.95-0.85-0.79
VanderbiltSEC2.171.7856.5258.640.280.31
UNC AshevilleBSth0.230.3262.5063.450.060.08
Gardner WebbBSth0.330.2943.4845.20-0.04-0.03
CampbellBSth0.290.2731.8232.07-0.11-0.10
High PointBSth0.240.2657.1459.870.030.05
Wake ForestACC0.270.2141.6739.90-0.04-0.04
AuburnSEC0.270.2139.1335.44-0.06-0.06
PittsburghACC0.180.2072.7367.600.080.07
GeorgiaSEC0.260.2059.0955.160.050.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.180.2050.0048.970.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.190.1927.2727.81-0.09-0.09
NavyPat0.190.1964.0064.470.050.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.260.1825.0026.38-0.13-0.09
South CarolinaSEC0.180.1786.9680.430.130.11
Boston CollegeACC0.140.1729.1726.68-0.06-0.08
LouisvilleACC0.210.1779.1776.000.120.09
ArkansasSEC0.220.1750.0052.940.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.130.1750.0048.120.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.240.1652.1754.090.010.01
LibertyBSth0.140.1634.7836.54-0.04-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.140.1660.8758.910.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.220.1628.5733.29-0.10-0.05
Virginia TechACC0.230.1552.0048.910.01-0.00
IllinoisB100.180.1545.8344.06-0.01-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.210.1524.0024.16-0.11-0.08
Morehead St.OVC0.130.1552.1753.440.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.170.1565.2264.330.050.04
CornellIvy0.190.1540.0039.00-0.04-0.03
DaytonA100.170.1587.5083.730.130.10
DavidsonA100.180.1561.9058.180.040.02
Appalachian St.SB0.170.1525.0028.14-0.09-0.06
ButlerBE0.140.1370.8368.990.060.05
LongwoodBSth0.150.1321.7424.59-0.08-0.07
Ohio St.B100.190.1360.0055.570.040.01
USC UpstateASun0.140.1221.7422.42-0.08-0.07
BrownIvy0.100.1230.0030.54-0.04-0.05
CharlotteCUSA0.090.1237.5042.32-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.150.1230.0031.18-0.06-0.05
PennIvy0.100.1236.8437.30-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.050.1273.6875.880.020.06
YaleIvy0.050.1275.0075.100.020.06
IPFWSum0.130.1270.8368.650.050.05
HowardMEAC0.140.1236.3638.95-0.04-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.120.1276.1972.410.070.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.130.1225.0033.24-0.07-0.04
Kansas St.B120.180.1258.3356.290.030.01
TexasB120.170.1266.6762.200.060.03
TulaneAmer0.170.1236.0034.84-0.05-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.130.1166.6763.330.040.03
VirginiaACC0.090.1183.3378.460.060.06
DukeACC0.090.1175.0071.810.040.05
SyracuseACC0.130.1168.0064.070.050.03
Notre DameACC0.130.1170.8367.910.050.04
Texas A&MSEC0.090.1175.0075.350.040.06
WinthropBSth0.100.1066.6763.790.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0931.8236.13-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.130.0928.0030.50-0.06-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0929.1733.08-0.04-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0950.0049.320.00-0.00
TroySB0.120.0922.7324.37-0.07-0.05
FairfieldMAAC0.130.0954.1754.100.010.01
Green BayHorz0.090.0956.5257.690.010.01
VillanovaBE0.090.0987.5086.850.070.06
Western MichiganMAC0.130.0931.8232.68-0.05-0.03
NorthwesternB100.130.0964.0062.090.040.02
AlabamaSEC0.130.0860.8755.980.030.01
Miami FLACC0.090.0882.6177.600.060.05
FloridaSEC0.040.0866.6766.320.010.03
KentuckySEC0.090.0875.0072.620.040.04
MississippiSEC0.090.0862.5058.940.020.01
Penn St.B100.100.0750.0046.760.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.050.0643.4837.80-0.01-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0672.0071.570.020.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0654.5555.550.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0642.8641.32-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.090.0670.8367.960.040.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.0645.4549.06-0.01-0.00
StetsonASun0.050.0622.7327.37-0.02-0.03
ElonCAA0.050.0650.0050.080.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0647.8348.57-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.050.0650.0044.640.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.090.0643.4842.42-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0640.0040.34-0.02-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.040.0670.8370.130.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.069.0912.25-0.00-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0639.1341.06-0.02-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0625.0025.09-0.04-0.03
George MasonA100.090.0633.3333.62-0.03-0.02
IdahoBSky0.080.0656.5255.330.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.040.0619.0525.89-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.040.0642.3146.12-0.01-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.040.0647.8350.90-0.000.00
NebraskaB100.080.0652.0050.770.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.080.0631.8232.47-0.03-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0683.3381.270.060.04
South AlabamaSB0.080.0636.3636.29-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.040.0652.1754.140.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.040.0613.0415.26-0.03-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.040.0650.0050.500.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0677.2773.930.020.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.040.0616.6719.49-0.03-0.04
KansasB120.090.0682.6179.210.060.03
MarylandB100.090.0687.5083.680.070.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0638.1037.68-0.02-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.090.0682.6183.030.060.04
LSUSEC0.040.0662.5059.070.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0643.4843.76-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0385.0083.450.030.02
NevadaMWC0.050.0357.1455.350.010.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0364.0057.890.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0356.5255.820.010.00
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0356.0056.500.010.00
BryantNEC0.050.0324.0024.92-0.03-0.02
BYUWCC0.050.0368.0070.260.020.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0341.6739.59-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0348.0048.59-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.050.0386.9682.620.040.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0372.0069.130.020.01
VermontAE0.050.0352.0054.840.000.00
AmericanPat0.040.0329.1731.18-0.02-0.01
BelmontOVC0.040.0368.0066.640.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0352.1754.970.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.040.0328.5734.10-0.02-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.040.0314.2920.63-0.03-0.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0325.0024.91-0.02-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.040.0356.0052.860.010.00
HamptonMEAC0.040.0359.0961.290.010.01
IndianaB100.040.0380.0075.690.020.02
LehighPat0.050.0339.1342.83-0.01-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0345.4543.17-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.040.0380.0081.550.030.02
NJITASun0.050.0356.0055.640.010.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.040.0343.4850.67-0.010.00
North FloridaASun0.040.0362.5064.110.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.040.0327.2726.46-0.02-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.040.0358.3363.160.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0326.9228.60-0.02-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.040.0352.1751.840.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.040.0368.1865.190.020.01
UMBCAE0.040.0323.0825.89-0.02-0.01
MinnesotaB100.040.0325.0027.25-0.02-0.01
RutgersB100.040.0321.7420.33-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.040.0345.4554.18-0.000.00
UTSACUSA0.040.0313.0412.96-0.03-0.02
ArizonaP120.040.0380.0078.730.030.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.040.0324.0025.68-0.02-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.040.0340.9138.83-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.040.0373.9168.450.020.01
ColgatePat0.040.0343.4844.88-0.01-0.00
DetroitHorz0.040.0345.4543.88-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.040.0360.8756.270.010.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.040.0358.3358.580.010.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.040.0360.0057.680.010.00
Northern IowaMVC0.040.0356.0055.450.010.00
PurdueB100.040.0380.0077.900.030.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.040.0314.2924.87-0.03-0.01
St. John'sBE0.040.0325.0023.43-0.02-0.01
TempleAmer0.040.0365.2262.360.010.01
UCLAP120.040.0354.1752.980.000.00
VCUA100.040.0370.8371.030.020.01
XavierBE0.040.0387.5081.840.030.02