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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Wofford

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:61.4
Current RPI:38
Expected SOS:209
Current SOS:117
Current Record:7-2
Expected Record:22-7
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:15-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-2
Current OOC Record:7-2
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:22
Expected OOC SOS:34



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-220.00.01%
26-328.70.63%
25-434.44.65%
24-541.313.46%
23-649.723.02%
22-760.625.12%
21-872.917.80%
20-986.89.73%
19-10101.63.89%
18-11118.31.33%
17-12135.80.26%
16-13151.60.08%
15-14182.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wofford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Stanford (74.0)P12A74-59L0%0.0
11-18Iona (79.7)MAACH86-73W100%0.0
11-21Fairfield (246.9)MAACA36-54W100%0.0
11-22South Dakota (254.7)SumN72-68W100%0.0
11-23Sam Houston St. (104.2)SlndN53-64W100%0.0
11-29William & Mary (104.3)CAAA66-62L0%0.0
12-3Presbyterian (340.7)BSthH66-45W100%0.0
12-14North Carolina St. (40.3)ACCA54-55W100%0.0
12-17Charleston Southern (205.9)BSthH64-58W100%0.0
12-22West Virginia (25.6)B12A0-018%-10.8
12-31Duke (4.6)ACCA0-05%-19.4
1-3Samford (323.7)SCA0-086%12.9
1-5Chattanooga (206.7)SCA0-068%5.3
1-8VMI (270.2)SCH0-093%16.9
1-10Samford (323.7)SCH0-097%21.6
1-15The Citadel (315.9)SCA0-082%10.9
1-17Western Carolina (247.3)SCH0-089%14.7
1-22Furman (291.0)SCH0-095%19.6
1-24East Tennessee St. (130.3)SCH0-081%10.1
1-29UNC Greensboro (282.7)SCA0-076%8.4
1-31Mercer (245.5)SCH0-091%15.7
2-5East Tennessee St. (130.3)SCA0-055%1.4
2-7VMI (270.2)SCA0-076%8.2
2-12Chattanooga (206.7)SCH0-088%14.1
2-14Western Carolina (247.3)SCA0-069%5.9
2-19UNC Greensboro (282.7)SCH0-093%17.2
2-21The Citadel (315.9)SCH0-095%19.6
2-26Mercer (245.5)SCA0-072%6.9
2-28Furman (291.0)SCA0-082%10.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wofford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wofford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wofford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WoffordSC28.0126.4484.6281.6519.3916.73
VMISC0.004.5333.3341.09-0.00-0.81
The CitadelSC0.004.4916.6732.48-0.00-1.57
SamfordSC0.404.4833.3333.24-0.13-1.50
Western CarolinaSC0.404.4720.0042.99-0.24-0.63
UNC GreensboroSC0.404.4722.2239.47-0.22-0.94
FurmanSC0.004.4625.0031.05-0.00-1.69
ChattanoogaSC0.004.4444.4453.77-0.000.34
MercerSC0.004.4437.5044.23-0.00-0.51
East Tennessee St.SC0.004.4371.4366.410.001.45
PresbyterianBSth5.561.940.008.96-5.56-1.59
DukeACC1.051.91100.0086.871.051.41
Charleston SouthernBSth5.811.8850.0051.980.000.07
FairfieldMAAC6.161.8750.0041.110.00-0.33
West VirginiaB120.001.8290.0066.440.000.60
South DakotaSum6.561.8130.0040.36-2.62-0.35
North Carolina St.ACC5.951.8190.0066.254.760.59
Sam Houston St.Slnd6.121.7857.1476.850.870.96
StanfordP125.811.7871.4356.112.490.22
IonaMAAC5.561.7875.0074.752.780.88
William & MaryCAA5.561.7250.0055.090.000.18
Virginia TechACC0.000.2555.5638.130.00-0.06
High PointBSth0.400.2262.5056.410.100.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.2250.0044.900.00-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.2070.0071.630.000.09
Wake ForestACC0.560.2050.0038.000.00-0.05
LibertyBSth0.000.1925.0034.77-0.00-0.06
LongwoodBSth0.000.1920.0026.57-0.00-0.09
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.1957.1470.590.000.08
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1950.0053.700.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1914.2945.19-0.00-0.02
CampbellBSth0.000.1925.0044.59-0.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.000.1810.0018.61-0.00-0.11
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1836.3633.67-0.00-0.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1637.5050.40-0.000.00
WinthropBSth0.000.1628.5747.31-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.400.1650.0037.510.00-0.04
ElonCAA0.000.1537.5047.87-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.250.1550.0046.150.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.310.1444.4456.51-0.030.02
NavyPat0.000.1320.0021.58-0.00-0.07
RadfordBSth0.000.1350.0055.810.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1320.0034.08-0.00-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1250.0049.620.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.000.1277.7864.730.000.04
TCUB120.000.12100.0066.180.000.04
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1262.5059.510.000.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.400.1272.7367.750.180.04
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1155.5661.390.000.03
ManhattanMAAC0.310.1122.2237.50-0.17-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1114.2930.74-0.00-0.04
PittsburghACC0.000.1166.6752.340.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.310.1144.4449.65-0.03-0.00
RiderMAAC0.310.1150.0052.800.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1136.3647.13-0.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.1137.5051.81-0.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.400.100.0017.51-0.40-0.06
Morehead St.OVC0.400.1018.1846.16-0.25-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0972.7373.150.000.04
Colorado St.MWC0.000.09100.0078.050.000.05
Wright St.Horz0.400.0960.0057.600.080.01
DelawareCAA0.350.090.007.39-0.35-0.08
NortheasternCAA0.310.0966.6757.860.100.01
ArmyPat0.000.0977.7868.780.000.03
DrexelCAA0.000.0925.0037.13-0.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0975.0071.730.000.04
HofstraCAA0.250.0977.7878.540.140.05
RiceCUSA0.400.0916.6726.28-0.26-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.350.0977.7865.390.190.03
Western IllinoisSum0.400.0937.5031.95-0.10-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.250.0945.4544.07-0.02-0.01
UNLVMWC0.950.0975.0050.750.470.00
DenverSum0.350.0950.0054.230.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.310.0933.3349.71-0.10-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0925.0033.17-0.00-0.03
WisconsinB100.000.0990.9188.390.000.07
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.250.0920.0028.20-0.15-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.250.0910.0018.58-0.20-0.05
PurdueB100.250.0972.7363.730.110.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0850.0057.510.000.01
TexasB120.000.0890.0081.860.000.05
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0866.6742.100.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0866.6745.670.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0890.9171.890.000.04
SyracuseACC0.000.0866.6757.800.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.08100.0085.310.000.06
Air ForceMWC0.000.0757.1461.670.000.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0616.6719.68-0.00-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0637.5034.19-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0642.8655.64-0.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6766.340.000.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0620.0039.70-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0670.0060.790.000.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0614.2934.12-0.00-0.02
MarylandB100.000.0690.9167.660.000.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0644.4470.08-0.000.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0666.6777.690.000.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0625.0028.68-0.00-0.03
TowsonCAA0.000.0666.6751.430.000.00
UC DavisBW0.000.0685.7161.020.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0680.0069.620.000.03
VCUA100.000.0670.0071.420.000.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0637.5038.60-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0671.4363.410.000.02
IndianaB100.000.0680.0057.630.000.01
LSUSEC0.350.0680.0064.110.210.02
RichmondA100.650.0655.5657.090.070.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0666.6754.660.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.0680.0072.550.000.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0011.40-0.00-0.05
DartmouthIvy0.000.0644.4447.53-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0662.5071.290.000.03
IPFWSum0.000.0657.1456.900.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0620.0026.33-0.00-0.03
LipscombASun0.000.0625.0042.64-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0644.4445.64-0.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0650.0039.340.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0644.4455.75-0.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0655.5656.400.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0630.0031.57-0.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0644.4445.59-0.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.000.0650.0038.180.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0630.0039.44-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0690.0067.260.000.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0662.5054.970.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0630.0037.28-0.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0637.5064.43-0.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0675.0060.400.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0080.590.000.04
Arizona St.P120.000.0660.0053.820.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0622.2230.99-0.00-0.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0690.0066.690.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3345.28-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.0672.7357.280.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0622.2241.92-0.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.06100.0071.820.000.03
Washington St.P120.000.0640.0028.86-0.00-0.02
USCP120.000.0660.0036.120.00-0.02
BaylorB120.000.0690.0073.870.000.03
George MasonA100.000.0625.0025.93-0.00-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.0677.7851.350.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0688.8963.800.000.02
KansasB120.000.0688.8969.390.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0660.0037.220.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0085.330.000.04
Miami FLACC0.000.0690.0075.520.000.03
OklahomaB120.000.0677.7867.290.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0688.8963.660.000.02
Texas TechB120.000.0688.8955.910.000.01
MississippiSEC0.400.0370.0052.610.160.00
AmericanPat0.400.0360.0065.400.080.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.350.0366.6777.030.120.02
FloridaSEC0.400.0360.0064.930.080.01
HowardMEAC0.400.0330.0043.91-0.16-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0375.0074.340.000.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0325.0049.09-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0038.46-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0018.94-0.00-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0037.73-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0388.8981.310.000.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.030.0039.41-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0311.1144.04-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0362.5066.700.000.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.350.0337.5041.20-0.09-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.250.0310.0030.45-0.20-0.01
CreightonBE0.250.0372.7351.560.110.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0333.3334.28-0.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0325.0052.09-0.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.250.0322.2228.69-0.14-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.250.0333.3340.31-0.08-0.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0333.3348.89-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0320.0038.24-0.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0360.0062.970.000.01
BucknellPat0.310.0340.0036.29-0.06-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.0366.6767.300.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.310.0322.2230.85-0.17-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0366.6758.240.000.00
DePaulBE0.350.0360.0034.110.07-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.350.0325.0023.43-0.17-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0333.3327.70-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.0366.6758.060.000.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0377.7855.460.000.00
UtahP120.000.0377.7879.480.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.310.0377.7871.960.170.01
Boise St.MWC0.250.0375.0068.680.130.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0377.7869.190.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.310.0340.0046.73-0.06-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.310.0333.3332.85-0.10-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.250.0318.1844.62-0.16-0.00
LafayettePat0.000.0375.0069.820.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0325.0038.92-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0360.0055.630.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.310.0342.8636.79-0.04-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.250.0344.4444.78-0.03-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0387.5065.040.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0363.6455.600.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0360.0059.420.000.01