Wofford

Conference:	SC
Expected RPI:	173.4
Current RPI:	193
Expected SOS:	286
Current SOS:	320
Current Record:	13-9
Expected Record:	17-12
Current Conf Record:	8-4
Expected Conf Record:	11-7
Probability of Auto Bid:	12.09%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	12-7
Current OOC Record:	5-5
Expected OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC RPI:	183
Expected OOC SOS:	289

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
20-9	124.7	0.65%
19-10	138.7	6.06%
18-11	152.8	21.56%
17-12	169.8	32.67%
16-13	187.0	26.04%
15-14	204.3	10.48%
14-15	221.4	2.32%
13-16	238.4	0.21%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wofford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Georgia (132.0)	SEC	A	62-49	L	0%	0.0
11-19	Wisconsin (21.8)	B10	A	69-33	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Bradley (248.0)	MVC	A	66-70	W	100%	0.0
11-25	Missouri Kansas City (240.4)	Sum	N	64-58	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Prairie View A&M (281.7)	SWAC	N	49-56	W	100%	0.0
12-1	Davidson (64.0)	SC	H	69-72	L	0%	0.0
12-3	The Citadel (331.4)	SC	H	82-63	W	100%	0.0
12-6	Tulane (174.9)	CUSA	H	61-50	W	100%	0.0
12-18	Jacksonville (285.8)	ASun	H	63-57	W	100%	0.0
12-21	High Point (283.4)	BSth	A	87-79	L	0%	0.0
12-28	South Carolina (172.1)	SEC	A	57-45	L	0%	0.0
1-2	Wake Forest (171.6)	ACC	A	52-56	W	100%	0.0
1-5	College of Charleston (128.5)	SC	H	75-58	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Western Carolina (259.9)	SC	A	67-57	L	0%	0.0
1-12	Chattanooga (285.8)	SC	A	51-48	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Georgia Southern (228.1)	SC	H	88-63	W	100%	0.0
1-19	Appalachian St. (249.5)	SC	H	73-61	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Furman (230.9)	SC	A	72-79	W	100%	0.0
1-26	The Citadel (331.4)	SC	A	55-62	W	100%	0.0
1-28	College of Charleston (128.5)	SC	A	59-68	W	100%	0.0
1-30	Western Carolina (259.9)	SC	H	82-56	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Samford (254.7)	SC	H	61-66	L	0%	0.0
2-6	Davidson (64.0)	SC	A	0-0		14%	-11.8
2-9	Georgia Southern (228.1)	SC	A	0-0		57%	1.8
2-11	Appalachian St. (249.5)	SC	A	0-0		55%	1.2
2-15	Elon (223.5)	SC	H	0-0		81%	9.4
2-18	Charleston Southern (151.0)	BSth	A	0-0		33%	-4.9
2-21	NC Greensboro (256.3)	SC	A	0-0		68%	5.0
2-25	Furman (230.9)	SC	H	0-0		74%	7.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wofford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Wofford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Wofford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Wofford	SC	26.44	26.33	62.24	62.70	6.47	6.69
Furman	SC	3.10	4.38	50.00	51.69	0.00	0.15
The Citadel	SC	4.97	4.32	10.53	12.36	-3.92	-3.25
College of Charleston	SC	5.04	4.30	63.64	64.27	1.37	1.23
Georgia Southern	SC	3.00	4.28	42.11	42.93	-0.47	-0.61
Davidson	SC	2.95	4.26	75.00	75.52	1.48	2.17
Western Carolina	SC	5.02	4.26	33.33	36.30	-1.67	-1.17
Appalachian St.	SC	2.79	4.19	36.84	40.62	-0.73	-0.79
Samford	SC	2.96	2.63	30.00	32.77	-1.18	-0.91
Elon	SC	0.83	2.62	50.00	48.67	0.00	-0.07
Chattanooga	SC	2.90	2.60	23.81	32.61	-1.52	-0.90
NC Greensboro	SC	0.84	2.59	34.78	33.50	-0.25	-0.86
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.25	1.91	55.00	60.04	0.03	0.38
High Point	BSth	2.43	1.88	28.57	30.17	-1.04	-0.75
South Carolina	SEC	2.37	1.87	38.10	37.48	-0.56	-0.47
Georgia	SEC	2.33	1.85	42.86	39.17	-0.33	-0.40
Bradley	MVC	2.47	1.84	25.00	25.69	-1.23	-0.90
Wake Forest	ACC	2.38	1.82	50.00	45.16	0.00	-0.18
Jacksonville	ASun	2.38	1.82	18.18	22.78	-1.52	-0.99
Wisconsin	B10	2.37	1.78	73.91	73.11	1.13	0.82
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	2.37	1.78	31.82	32.88	-0.86	-0.61
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	2.27	1.72	36.84	42.30	-0.60	-0.27
Tulane	CUSA	2.27	1.72	65.00	60.76	0.68	0.37
Presbyterian	BSth	0.36	0.34	40.91	43.66	-0.07	-0.04
Tennessee	SEC	0.36	0.30	45.45	44.66	-0.03	-0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.36	0.27	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.25	0.25	72.22	71.97	0.11	0.11
Winthrop	BSth	0.20	0.22	34.78	34.61	-0.06	-0.07
Mercer	ASun	0.26	0.21	70.83	71.64	0.11	0.09
NC Asheville	BSth	0.30	0.21	68.18	67.64	0.11	0.08
Campbell	BSth	0.11	0.19	56.00	55.65	0.01	0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.20	0.19	34.78	38.77	-0.06	-0.04
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.16	0.19	52.38	52.86	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.21	0.18	86.96	83.16	0.15	0.12
Kentucky	SEC	0.26	0.18	95.83	92.57	0.24	0.15
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.16	0.18	69.57	65.87	0.06	0.06
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.16	0.16	45.00	44.15	-0.02	-0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.16	0.15	39.13	36.10	-0.03	-0.04
Massachusetts	A10	0.15	0.15	73.91	68.58	0.07	0.06
Wichita St.	MVC	0.09	0.15	82.61	80.42	0.06	0.09
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.20	0.15	70.83	64.42	0.08	0.04
Duke	ACC	0.10	0.15	86.36	83.09	0.08	0.10
Florida	SEC	0.20	0.14	82.61	77.63	0.13	0.08
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.13	8.70	13.10	-0.04	-0.10
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.11	0.13	38.10	37.86	-0.03	-0.03
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.13	31.82	31.31	-0.02	-0.05
East Carolina	CUSA	0.06	0.12	44.44	41.71	-0.01	-0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.16	0.12	56.52	48.81	0.02	-0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.12	65.00	60.02	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.10	0.12	72.73	71.71	0.04	0.05
Central Florida	CUSA	0.20	0.12	71.43	66.60	0.09	0.04
Richmond	A10	0.10	0.12	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.06	0.12	69.57	61.31	0.02	0.03
Purdue	B10	0.20	0.12	65.22	60.58	0.06	0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.16	0.12	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.15	0.12	8.70	11.67	-0.12	-0.09
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.11	0.12	39.13	42.12	-0.02	-0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.10	0.12	71.43	69.05	0.04	0.04
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.14	0.12	62.50	61.50	0.04	0.03
Georgia St.	CAA	0.11	0.10	66.67	69.69	0.04	0.04
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.10	27.27	27.21	-0.02	-0.04
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.10	55.00	54.80	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.11	0.10	60.87	59.76	0.02	0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.11	0.09	17.65	27.10	-0.07	-0.04
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.11	0.09	16.67	23.02	-0.07	-0.05
Southern	SWAC	0.11	0.09	45.00	46.13	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.09	19.05	21.29	-0.03	-0.05
Longwood	ind	0.16	0.09	30.00	27.84	-0.06	-0.04
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.16	0.09	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.16	0.09	73.91	68.43	0.07	0.03
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.15	0.09	52.38	57.86	0.01	0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.10	0.09	54.55	56.09	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.09	73.91	75.49	0.05	0.04
Alabama	SEC	0.15	0.09	68.18	69.10	0.06	0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.10	0.09	76.19	72.91	0.05	0.04
Nebraska	B10	0.14	0.08	52.38	46.68	0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.10	0.08	86.96	85.46	0.07	0.06
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.07	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.06	0.07	52.38	52.87	0.00	0.00
South Florida	BE	0.06	0.07	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.06	0.07	65.22	63.61	0.02	0.02
Army	Pat	0.11	0.06	40.91	41.72	-0.02	-0.01
Denver	SB	0.11	0.06	70.83	72.23	0.05	0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.11	0.06	40.00	40.18	-0.02	-0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.06	34.78	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.11	0.06	59.09	59.72	0.02	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.06	9.52	13.19	-0.04	-0.05
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	47.06	50.75	-0.00	0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	30.00	37.30	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	17.39	24.41	-0.04	-0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.06	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.06	0.06	15.00	15.73	-0.04	-0.04
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.06	47.62	44.63	-0.00	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	19.05	25.52	-0.04	-0.03
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.06	78.26	78.39	0.03	0.03
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.06	54.55	56.84	0.00	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.11	0.06	47.62	46.46	-0.01	-0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.06	43.48	43.31	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.11	0.06	31.82	42.13	-0.04	-0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.06	60.87	59.05	0.01	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.10	0.06	59.09	50.82	0.02	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.06	40.91	39.82	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.10	0.06	54.55	57.69	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.11	0.06	38.89	43.93	-0.02	-0.01
Belmont	ASun	0.10	0.06	69.57	73.28	0.04	0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.10	0.06	19.05	22.37	-0.06	-0.03
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.06	35.00	35.31	-0.01	-0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.10	0.06	34.78	35.50	-0.03	-0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.10	0.06	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.06	61.90	63.52	0.01	0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.06	45.83	46.68	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.10	0.06	30.00	31.54	-0.04	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.06	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.10	0.06	80.77	80.75	0.06	0.04
South Dakota	Sum	0.10	0.06	26.32	28.83	-0.05	-0.03
Southern Utah	Sum	0.10	0.06	45.45	44.30	-0.01	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.06	52.63	48.41	0.00	-0.00
Brigham Young	WCC	0.10	0.06	75.00	76.00	0.05	0.03
Indiana	B10	0.10	0.06	75.00	75.78	0.05	0.03
Nevada	WAC	0.10	0.06	80.95	76.42	0.06	0.03
Marquette	BE	0.10	0.06	79.17	75.98	0.06	0.03
North Dakota	GWC	0.09	0.06	33.33	41.31	-0.03	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.09	0.06	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.00	0.06	69.57	65.15	0.00	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.06	30.43	26.44	-0.02	-0.03
George Mason	CAA	0.09	0.06	76.00	72.50	0.05	0.03
Holy Cross	Pat	0.09	0.06	40.91	42.05	-0.02	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.00	0.06	59.09	57.28	0.00	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.09	0.06	78.26	72.66	0.05	0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.10	0.06	63.64	56.71	0.03	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.00	0.06	78.26	72.34	0.00	0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.09	0.06	45.45	46.99	-0.01	-0.00
Southern California	P12	0.10	0.06	25.00	25.13	-0.05	-0.03
Creighton	MVC	0.09	0.06	87.50	85.41	0.07	0.04
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.06	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.09	0.06	45.45	44.02	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.06	72.73	64.43	0.02	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.06	62.50	62.06	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.06	56.52	54.22	0.01	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.06	54.17	49.44	0.00	-0.00
Michigan	B10	0.09	0.06	72.73	66.81	0.04	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.06	54.17	57.20	0.00	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.06	41.67	38.67	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.09	0.06	34.78	32.06	-0.03	-0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.00	0.03	72.73	68.28	0.00	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.00	0.03	14.29	17.17	-0.00	-0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.03	36.36	38.48	-0.01	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.00	0.03	47.37	52.87	-0.00	0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	26.32	29.79	-0.03	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.00	0.03	85.71	78.05	0.00	0.02
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.05	0.03	76.19	75.94	0.03	0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.05	0.03	57.14	60.75	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.06	0.03	90.91	83.85	0.05	0.02
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	34.78	38.42	-0.02	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.03	20.00	19.96	-0.03	-0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.00	0.03	69.57	71.51	0.00	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	25.00	23.75	-0.03	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.06	0.03	69.57	64.53	0.02	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.03	33.33	33.82	-0.02	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.03	85.71	82.18	0.04	0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.01	0.05	0.03
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.03	19.05	24.61	-0.03	-0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.03	38.10	42.78	-0.01	-0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.03	17.39	19.81	-0.03	-0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.00	0.03	80.95	77.38	0.00	0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.00	0.03	83.33	84.76	0.00	0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.03	81.82	81.03	0.03	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.00	0.03	33.33	37.25	-0.00	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.00	0.03	4.00	5.26	-0.00	-0.03
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.00	0.03	80.00	78.06	0.00	0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.00	0.03	41.67	40.61	-0.00	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.03	30.43	31.43	-0.02	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.03	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
California	P12	0.05	0.03	75.00	74.61	0.03	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.47	0.02	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	62.65	0.02	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.03	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	35.29	39.85	-0.02	-0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.03	77.27	73.45	0.03	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	62.65	0.02	0.01
Providence	BE	0.05	0.03	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	10.00	14.93	-0.04	-0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.03	27.78	29.58	-0.02	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.03	31.82	25.98	-0.02	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.00	0.03	81.82	76.80	0.00	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.00
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.03	72.22	63.19	0.02	0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.03	30.43	29.50	-0.02	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.03	79.17	78.10	0.03	0.02
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.03	34.78	32.08	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.03	82.61	81.44	0.03	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.03	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.03	61.90	55.14	0.01	0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.03	35.00	39.38	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.03	56.52	57.72	0.01	0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.03	76.19	70.73	0.02	0.01