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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Wofford

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:199.0
Current RPI:199
Expected SOS:194
Current SOS:194
Current Record:13-17
Expected Record:13-17
Current Conf Record:11-8
Expected Conf Record:11-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-2
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:272
Expected OOC SOS:177



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-17199.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wofford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Missouri (222.0)SECA83-74L0%0.0
11-18North Carolina (5.0)ACCA78-58L0%0.0
11-21Maryland Eastern Shore (307.0)MEACH73-63W100%0.0
11-24Columbia (132.0)IvyA70-59L0%0.0
11-28Presbyterian (319.0)BSthA58-68W100%0.0
12-1Georgia Tech (69.0)ACCA77-61L0%0.0
12-6Clemson (131.0)ACCA66-51L0%0.0
12-14Coastal Carolina (164.0)BSthH63-71L0%0.0
12-19Vanderbilt (63.0)SECA80-56L0%0.0
12-22Austin Peay (184.0)OVCA84-77L0%0.0
12-31Harvard (193.0)IvyA77-57L0%0.0
1-2UNC Greensboro (237.0)SCH87-76W100%0.0
1-5VMI (316.0)SCA61-65W100%0.0
1-9Samford (252.0)SCH69-64W100%0.0
1-11Chattanooga (50.0)SCH68-77L0%0.0
1-14The Citadel (322.0)SCA83-86W100%0.0
1-16Mercer (194.0)SCA70-69L0%0.0
1-23Furman (167.0)SCA63-62L0%0.0
1-28East Tennessee St. (85.0)SCH87-73W100%0.0
1-30Western Carolina (166.0)SCH85-66W100%0.0
2-4Chattanooga (50.0)SCA79-63L0%0.0
2-6Samford (252.0)SCA75-78W100%0.0
2-8VMI (316.0)SCH92-60W100%0.0
2-11Mercer (194.0)SCH79-70W100%0.0
2-13The Citadel (322.0)SCH99-89W100%0.0
2-15UNC Greensboro (237.0)SCA65-61L0%0.0
2-20Furman (167.0)SCH77-73W100%0.0
2-25Western Carolina (166.0)SCA53-48L0%0.0
2-27East Tennessee St. (85.0)SCA71-66L0%0.0
3-5Western Carolina (166.0)SCN83-88L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wofford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wofford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wofford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WoffordSC26.4426.4447.4147.41-1.37-1.37
Western CarolinaSC5.945.9440.7440.74-1.10-1.10
ChattanoogaSC4.474.4783.3383.332.982.98
East Tennessee St.SC4.464.4666.6766.671.491.49
FurmanSC4.424.4251.7251.720.150.15
SamfordSC4.424.4241.3841.38-0.76-0.76
MercerSC4.394.3955.1755.170.450.45
The CitadelSC4.354.3525.9325.93-2.10-2.10
UNC GreensboroSC4.354.3537.0437.04-1.13-1.13
VMISC4.344.3424.0024.00-2.26-2.26
PresbyterianBSth1.931.9329.6329.63-0.79-0.79
Georgia TechACC1.821.8256.2556.250.230.23
ClemsonACC1.801.8053.3353.330.120.12
North CarolinaACC1.781.7881.8281.821.131.13
ColumbiaIvy1.751.7564.2964.290.500.50
Austin PeayOVC1.751.7546.8846.88-0.11-0.11
Coastal CarolinaBSth1.731.7356.0056.000.210.21
HarvardIvy1.721.7240.7440.74-0.32-0.32
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.721.7230.0030.00-0.69-0.69
MissouriSEC1.721.7230.0030.00-0.69-0.69
VanderbiltSEC1.721.7258.0658.060.280.28
UNC AshevilleBSth0.310.3164.5264.520.090.09
Gardner WebbBSth0.300.3046.6746.67-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.260.2664.2964.290.080.08
CampbellBSth0.240.2433.3333.33-0.08-0.08
PittsburghACC0.240.2464.5264.520.070.07
AuburnSEC0.190.1935.4835.48-0.06-0.06
Wake ForestACC0.190.1935.4835.48-0.06-0.06
South CarolinaSEC0.190.1974.1974.190.090.09
North Carolina St.ACC0.190.1948.4848.48-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.180.1859.3859.380.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.180.1844.1244.12-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.180.1822.2222.22-0.10-0.10
RadfordBSth0.180.1848.2848.28-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
IllinoisB100.160.1644.1244.12-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
Morehead St.OVC0.160.1658.6258.620.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.160.1631.0331.03-0.06-0.06
ArkansasSEC0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.160.1621.8821.88-0.09-0.09
LouisvilleACC0.160.1674.1974.190.080.08
Tennessee TechOVC0.150.1560.7160.710.030.03
VirginiaACC0.150.1578.7978.790.090.09
LibertyBSth0.150.1534.4834.48-0.05-0.05
CornellIvy0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Virginia TechACC0.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.130.1329.0329.03-0.06-0.06
DaytonA100.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
Jacksonville St.OVC0.130.1320.6920.69-0.08-0.08
Notre DameACC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
WinthropBSth0.120.1268.9768.970.050.05
LongwoodBSth0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
ButlerBE0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
BrownIvy0.120.1225.9325.93-0.06-0.06
DartmouthIvy0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
PennIvy0.120.1237.0437.04-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.120.1277.7877.780.060.06
YaleIvy0.120.1277.7877.780.060.06
Ohio St.B100.120.1260.6160.610.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
HowardMEAC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
Kansas St.B120.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
TexasB120.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.1076.6776.670.060.06
Florida St.ACC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
TulaneAmer0.100.1035.2935.29-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
SyracuseACC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
NorthwesternB100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
MississippiSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
FloridaSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
KentuckySEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
LipscombASun0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
Miami FLACC0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Penn St.B100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.060.0687.8887.880.040.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0679.4179.410.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
George MasonA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
IdahoBSky0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
LSUSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
MarylandB100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
BelmontOVC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0511.1111.11-0.04-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
NevadaMWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
BryantNEC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
OklahomaB120.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
BucknellPat0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
NJITASun0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
MinnesotaB100.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0362.8662.860.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UMBCAE0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
BaylorB120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
TempleAmer0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
UCLAP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00