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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Wofford

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:153.0
Current RPI:153
Expected SOS:254
Current SOS:254
Current Record:17-12
Expected Record:17-12
Current Conf Record:14-5
Expected Conf Record:14-5
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-3
Current OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:103
Expected OOC SOS:16



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-12153.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wofford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Georgia (74.0)SECA72-52L0%0.0
11-16Iona (59.0)MAACA76-55L0%0.0
11-21Minnesota (50.0)B10A79-57L0%0.0
11-24High Point (172.0)BSthA66-56L0%0.0
12-4Gardner Webb (241.0)BSthA62-65W100%0.0
12-7William & Mary (119.0)CAAH60-63L0%0.0
12-14Saint Louis (27.0)A10A66-52L0%0.0
12-17VCU (13.0)A10A72-57L0%0.0
12-21Winthrop (168.0)BSthA56-62W100%0.0
12-30High Point (172.0)BSthH81-53W100%0.0
1-2Samford (313.0)SCA61-71W100%0.0
1-4Davidson (126.0)SCH63-78L0%0.0
1-9The Citadel (345.0)SCH79-75W100%0.0
1-11Chattanooga (243.0)SCA70-69L0%0.0
1-18Chattanooga (243.0)SCH57-71L0%0.0
1-20Western Carolina (221.0)SCH71-60W100%0.0
1-23Georgia Southern (303.0)SCA64-74W100%0.0
1-25Furman (339.0)SCA52-76W100%0.0
2-1Samford (313.0)SCH77-58W100%0.0
2-6Georgia Southern (303.0)SCH74-61W100%0.0
2-8The Citadel (345.0)SCA56-77W100%0.0
2-15Appalachian St. (335.0)SCA58-64W100%0.0
2-20Furman (339.0)SCH70-50W100%0.0
2-22Davidson (126.0)SCA59-49L0%0.0
2-27Elon (162.0)SCA59-63W100%0.0
3-1UNC Greensboro (301.0)SCH71-73L0%0.0
3-8The Citadel (345.0)SCN68-51W100%0.0
3-9Georgia Southern (303.0)SCN71-57W100%0.0
3-10Western Carolina (221.0)SCN56-53W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wofford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wofford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wofford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WoffordSC26.5426.5463.1263.126.966.96
Georgia SouthernSC6.046.0442.8642.86-0.86-0.86
The CitadelSC5.995.9915.3815.38-4.15-4.15
FurmanSC4.404.4028.0028.00-1.94-1.94
DavidsonSC4.394.3958.6258.620.760.76
Western CarolinaSC4.364.3655.1755.170.450.45
ChattanoogaSC4.304.3048.1548.15-0.16-0.16
SamfordSC4.284.2835.7135.71-1.22-1.22
High PointBSth3.593.5950.0050.000.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC2.722.7235.7135.71-0.78-0.78
Appalachian St.SC2.682.6820.0020.00-1.61-1.61
ElonSC2.622.6257.1457.140.370.37
Gardner WebbBSth2.022.0251.7251.720.070.07
WinthropBSth1.961.9658.6258.620.340.34
GeorgiaSEC1.961.9658.0658.060.320.32
VCUA101.811.8175.7675.760.930.93
William & MaryCAA1.791.7960.0060.000.360.36
Saint LouisA101.771.7780.0080.001.061.06
IonaMAAC1.721.7267.7467.740.610.61
MinnesotaB101.721.7258.0658.060.280.28
PresbyterianBSth0.530.5313.3313.33-0.39-0.39
CampbellBSth0.380.3832.1432.14-0.14-0.14
LibertyBSth0.360.3627.5927.59-0.16-0.16
VMIBSth0.360.3655.5655.560.040.04
RadfordBSth0.330.3360.0060.000.070.07
College of CharlestonCAA0.290.2941.9441.94-0.05-0.05
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.290.2960.0060.000.060.06
UNC AshevilleBSth0.260.2648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.230.2333.3333.33-0.08-0.08
LongwoodBSth0.210.2114.2914.29-0.15-0.15
Virginia TechACC0.200.2029.0329.03-0.09-0.09
James MadisonCAA0.180.1835.4835.48-0.05-0.05
TowsonCAA0.170.1767.7467.740.060.06
NiagaraMAAC0.170.1721.2121.21-0.10-0.10
Old DominionCUSA0.160.1648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.160.1657.5857.580.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.150.1570.9770.970.060.06
NebraskaB100.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.140.1413.7913.79-0.10-0.10
UABCUSA0.140.1455.1755.170.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
FordhamA100.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
DrexelCAA0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
DaytonA100.140.1469.7069.700.050.05
George WashingtonA100.130.1375.0075.000.070.07
ClemsonACC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.120.1293.1093.100.100.10
Wake ForestACC0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
DuquesneA100.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
Georgia St.SB0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Oral RobertsSlnd0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.110.11100.00100.000.110.11
CanisiusMAAC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
WisconsinB100.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
George MasonA100.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
ArmyPat0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
SyracuseACC0.090.0984.3884.380.060.06
IUPUISum0.090.0910.3410.34-0.07-0.07
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
NevadaMWC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0935.7135.71-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
StetsonASun0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
IndianaB100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
MaristMAAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Miami FLACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
MassachusettsA100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
MissouriSEC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
NorthwesternB100.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
Penn St.B100.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
CaliforniaP120.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
UC DavisBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0683.8783.870.040.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
RutgersAmer0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0634.6234.62-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
ColoradoP120.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
HofstraCAA0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
OregonP120.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
LSUSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
MississippiSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
KansasB120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
LehighPat0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
BelmontOVC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01