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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Wofford

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:190.0
Current RPI:190
Expected SOS:144
Current SOS:144
Current Record:13-17
Expected Record:13-17
Current Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-3
Current OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC RPI:251
Expected OOC SOS:109



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-17190.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wofford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12LSU (193.0)SECA91-69L0%0.0
11-21Vermont (46.0)AEN59-60L0%0.0
11-22Bradley (220.0)MVCN70-62L0%0.0
11-23Kent St. (142.0)MACN66-59L0%0.0
11-27Colorado (99.0)P12A75-60L0%0.0
12-3Miami FL (41.0)ACCN74-57L0%0.0
12-10TCU (67.0)B12A72-63L0%0.0
12-15Austin Peay (261.0)OVCH96-77W100%0.0
12-19Coastal Carolina (183.0)SBA74-75W100%0.0
12-22Georgia Tech (105.0)ACCA76-72L0%0.0
12-31Mercer (192.0)SCH88-71W100%0.0
1-2The Citadel (282.0)SCH103-104L0%0.0
1-5Chattanooga (139.0)SCA77-66L0%0.0
1-8Samford (170.0)SCA91-89L0%0.0
1-14Furman (96.0)SCH67-58W100%0.0
1-19VMI (329.0)SCH88-70W100%0.0
1-22East Tennessee St. (55.0)SCA79-72L0%0.0
1-25UNC Greensboro (95.0)SCH93-74W100%0.0
1-28Western Carolina (271.0)SCA68-62L0%0.0
2-2The Citadel (282.0)SCA90-100W100%0.0
2-4Mercer (192.0)SCA62-65W100%0.0
2-6East Tennessee St. (55.0)SCH79-76W100%0.0
2-9Samford (170.0)SCH131-127W100%0.0
2-11Chattanooga (139.0)SCH65-73L0%0.0
2-15UNC Greensboro (95.0)SCA74-55L0%0.0
2-18Western Carolina (271.0)SCH84-56W100%0.0
2-22VMI (329.0)SCA63-81W100%0.0
2-25Furman (96.0)SCA78-69L0%0.0
3-4Chattanooga (139.0)SCN67-79W100%0.0
3-5UNC Greensboro (95.0)SCN77-73L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wofford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wofford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wofford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WoffordSC26.5426.5445.2445.24-2.53-2.53
UNC GreensboroSC6.056.0571.4371.432.592.59
ChattanoogaSC5.965.9657.6957.690.920.92
East Tennessee St.SC4.524.5280.0080.002.712.71
SamfordSC4.504.5053.3353.330.300.30
The CitadelSC4.464.4628.5728.57-1.91-1.91
Western CarolinaSC4.414.4121.4321.43-2.52-2.52
FurmanSC4.384.3864.2964.291.251.25
MercerSC4.384.3846.4346.43-0.31-0.31
VMISC4.374.3715.3815.38-3.03-3.03
Coastal CarolinaSB1.751.7546.6746.67-0.12-0.12
Miami FLACC1.751.7564.5264.520.510.51
Georgia TechACC1.691.6950.0050.000.000.00
TCUB121.691.6953.1253.120.110.11
BradleyMVC1.691.6935.4835.48-0.49-0.49
Austin PeayOVC1.671.6733.3333.33-0.56-0.56
ColoradoP121.671.6754.8454.840.160.16
Kent St.MAC1.671.6760.6160.610.350.35
LSUSEC1.671.6730.0030.00-0.67-0.67
VermontAE1.671.6784.3884.381.151.15
PresbyterianBSth0.250.2510.7110.71-0.20-0.20
UNC AshevilleBSth0.220.2270.0070.000.090.09
Virginia TechACC0.190.1968.7568.750.070.07
Jacksonville St.OVC0.190.1956.2556.250.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.190.1948.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.190.1959.3859.380.040.04
CampbellBSth0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.170.1776.4776.470.090.09
Arkansas St.SB0.170.1761.2961.290.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.170.1778.7978.790.100.10
College of CharlestonCAA0.160.1672.7372.730.070.07
AuburnSEC0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
Iowa St.B120.160.1669.7069.700.060.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.140.1455.8855.880.020.02
DaytonA100.140.1476.6776.670.080.08
Louisiana MonroeSB0.140.1422.5822.58-0.08-0.08
High PointBSth0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.140.1455.1755.170.010.01
NavyPat0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
VirginiaACC0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.130.1375.7675.760.070.07
AkronMAC0.130.1375.7675.760.070.07
Gardner WebbBSth0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
RadfordBSth0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.110.1155.8855.880.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
GeorgiaSEC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.1173.3373.330.050.05
FloridaSEC0.110.1175.0075.000.050.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.113.333.33-0.10-0.10
UT ArlingtonSB0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
George MasonA100.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
UMBCAE0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Notre DameACC0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
Wichita St.MVC0.110.1187.8887.880.080.08
WashingtonP120.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
TexasB120.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0944.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
PittsburghACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.080.0877.1477.140.040.04
Miami OHMAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
StanfordP120.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
Oregon St.P120.080.0812.9012.90-0.06-0.06
AlbanyAE0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
KansasB120.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
MaineAE0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
New HampshireAE0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
OklahomaB120.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
DelawareCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
MarquetteBE0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
MichiganB100.060.0668.5768.570.020.02
Ohio St.B100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
StetsonASun0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.060.0680.0080.000.030.03
Georgia St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Texas St.SB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
MississippiSEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0529.4129.41-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
UtahP120.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
BinghamtonAE0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
BelmontOVC0.030.0377.7877.780.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
LipscombASun0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
PennIvy0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
USCP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0361.5461.540.010.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
SMUAmer0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
UNLVMWC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00