Wofford

Conference:	SC
Expected RPI:	250.0
Current RPI:	250
Expected SOS:	255
Current SOS:	255
Current Record:	12-19
Expected Record:	12-19
Current Conf Record:	7-12
Expected Conf Record:	7-12
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-9
Current OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC RPI:	135
Expected OOC SOS:	138

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-19	250.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wofford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Colorado (38.0)	P12	A	74-59	L	0%
11-16	Ball St. (233.0)	MAC	A	66-61	L	0%
11-18	Ohio (67.0)	MAC	A	73-50	L	0%
11-20	Richmond (92.0)	A10	A	64-58	L	0%
11-23	Hampton (287.0)	MEAC	N	56-51	W	100%
11-24	NC Wilmington (301.0)	CAA	A	49-37	L	0%
11-28	Winthrop (269.0)	BSth	H	70-55	W	100%
12-5	Gardner Webb (194.0)	BSth	H	54-42	W	100%
12-8	Davidson (61.0)	SC	A	63-56	L	0%
12-18	Jacksonville (281.0)	ASun	A	52-94	W	100%
12-22	Xavier (87.0)	A10	A	55-56	W	100%
12-30	Virginia (76.0)	ACC	A	74-39	L	0%
1-4	Tulane (175.0)	CUSA	A	62-48	L	0%
1-8	Appalachian St. (265.0)	SC	H	49-50	L	0%
1-12	Georgia Southern (266.0)	SC	H	71-53	W	100%
1-14	Furman (343.0)	SC	A	69-65	L	0%
1-16	NC Greensboro (327.0)	SC	A	71-52	L	0%
1-19	Elon (174.0)	SC	A	68-61	L	0%
1-24	Furman (343.0)	SC	H	63-50	W	100%
1-26	College of Charleston (133.0)	SC	H	50-79	L	0%
1-31	The Citadel (330.0)	SC	A	69-63	L	0%
2-2	Davidson (61.0)	SC	H	57-68	L	0%
2-7	Elon (174.0)	SC	H	60-50	W	100%
2-9	NC Greensboro (327.0)	SC	H	59-50	W	100%
2-11	Western Carolina (243.0)	SC	A	57-56	L	0%
2-14	Samford (291.0)	SC	A	40-33	L	0%
2-16	Chattanooga (292.0)	SC	H	78-58	W	100%
2-21	Georgia Southern (266.0)	SC	A	47-53	W	100%
2-28	College of Charleston (133.0)	SC	A	55-50	L	0%
3-2	The Citadel (330.0)	SC	H	69-62	W	100%
3-8	Georgia Southern (266.0)	SC	N	44-60	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wofford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Wofford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Wofford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Wofford	SC	26.30	26.30	41.32	41.32	-4.56	-4.56
Georgia Southern	SC	5.58	5.58	39.29	39.29	-1.20	-1.20
Davidson	SC	4.18	4.18	76.67	76.67	2.23	2.23
College of Charleston	SC	4.14	4.14	70.97	70.97	1.73	1.73
Furman	SC	4.10	4.10	14.81	14.81	-2.89	-2.89
The Citadel	SC	4.01	4.01	19.23	19.23	-2.47	-2.47
NC Greensboro	SC	4.00	4.00	22.22	22.22	-2.22	-2.22
Elon	SC	4.00	4.00	64.29	64.29	1.14	1.14
Western Carolina	SC	2.52	2.52	36.67	36.67	-0.67	-0.67
Appalachian St.	SC	2.51	2.51	42.86	42.86	-0.36	-0.36
Samford	SC	2.45	2.45	30.00	30.00	-0.98	-0.98
Chattanooga	SC	2.44	2.44	37.93	37.93	-0.59	-0.59
NC Wilmington	CAA	1.79	1.79	28.57	28.57	-0.77	-0.77
Gardner Webb	BSth	1.78	1.78	62.07	62.07	0.43	0.43
Richmond	A10	1.77	1.77	54.84	54.84	0.17	0.17
Ohio	MAC	1.75	1.75	71.88	71.88	0.76	0.76
Hampton	MEAC	1.72	1.72	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
Winthrop	BSth	1.72	1.72	40.74	40.74	-0.32	-0.32
Jacksonville	ASun	1.67	1.67	41.38	41.38	-0.29	-0.29
Xavier	A10	1.64	1.64	56.67	56.67	0.22	0.22
Ball St.	MAC	1.64	1.64	46.43	46.43	-0.12	-0.12
Colorado	P12	1.61	1.61	64.52	64.52	0.47	0.47
Tulane	CUSA	1.61	1.61	54.84	54.84	0.16	0.16
Virginia	ACC	1.61	1.61	64.52	64.52	0.47	0.47
Presbyterian	BSth	0.25	0.25	17.24	17.24	-0.17	-0.17
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.25	0.25	57.14	57.14	0.04	0.04
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.21	0.21	40.62	40.62	-0.04	-0.04
Charlotte	A10	0.20	0.20	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
James Madison	CAA	0.19	0.19	58.82	58.82	0.03	0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.19	0.19	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.19	0.19	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.19	0.19	42.31	42.31	-0.03	-0.03
Radford	BSth	0.17	0.17	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.17	0.17	39.29	39.29	-0.04	-0.04
High Point	BSth	0.17	0.17	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.17	0.17	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.16	0.16	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Butler	A10	0.16	0.16	75.76	75.76	0.08	0.08
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.16	0.16	10.00	10.00	-0.13	-0.13
Old Dominion	CAA	0.15	0.15	16.67	16.67	-0.10	-0.10
Campbell	BSth	0.14	0.14	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Mercer	ASun	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
East Carolina	CUSA	0.14	0.14	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.13	0.13	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia St.	CAA	0.13	0.13	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.13	0.13	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.13	0.13	28.12	28.12	-0.06	-0.06
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.13	0.13	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.13	0.13	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Duke	ACC	0.13	0.13	84.38	84.38	0.09	0.09
Maryland	ACC	0.13	0.13	64.71	64.71	0.04	0.04
Memphis	CUSA	0.13	0.13	88.24	88.24	0.10	0.10
Columbia	Ivy	0.11	0.11	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.11	0.11	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.11	0.11	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.11	0.11	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.11	0.11	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.11	0.11	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
Howard	MEAC	0.10	0.10	20.69	20.69	-0.06	-0.06
Buffalo	MAC	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Towson	CAA	0.10	0.10	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	17.86	17.86	-0.07	-0.07
UAB	CUSA	0.10	0.10	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.10	0.10	80.65	80.65	0.06	0.06
Boston College	ACC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.08	0.08	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
Lipscomb	ASun	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.08	0.08	13.79	13.79	-0.06	-0.06
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.08	0.08	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Stetson	ASun	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.08	0.08	20.69	20.69	-0.05	-0.05
George Mason	CAA	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Kansas	B12	0.08	0.08	85.29	85.29	0.05	0.05
North Carolina	ACC	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Robert Morris	NEC	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona	P12	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Oregon St.	P12	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.07	0.07	85.29	85.29	0.05	0.05
Baylor	B12	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.06	0.06	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.05	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.05	59.26	59.26	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Temple	A10	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	7.14	7.14	-0.04	-0.04
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	93.75	93.75	0.04	0.04
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.05	0.05	79.31	79.31	0.03	0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.03	-0.03
IUPUI	Sum	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.03	0.03	35.71	35.71	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Pacific	BW	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Fresno St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	SB	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Southern California	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.02	0.02	80.00	80.00	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01