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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Wofford

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:47.0
Current RPI:47
Expected SOS:205
Current SOS:205
Current Record:26-6
Expected Record:26-6
Current Conf Record:19-2
Expected Conf Record:19-2
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:19-1
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:23
Expected OOC SOS:22



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-647.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wofford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Stanford (59.0)P12A74-59L0%0.0
11-18Iona (51.0)MAACH86-73W100%0.0
11-21Fairfield (299.0)MAACA36-54W100%0.0
11-22South Dakota (213.0)SumN72-68W100%0.0
11-23Sam Houston St. (82.0)SlndN53-64W100%0.0
11-29William & Mary (93.0)CAAA66-62L0%0.0
12-3Presbyterian (315.0)BSthH66-45W100%0.0
12-14North Carolina St. (39.0)ACCA54-55W100%0.0
12-17Charleston Southern (164.0)BSthH64-58W100%0.0
12-22West Virginia (24.0)B12A77-44L0%0.0
12-31Duke (6.0)ACCA84-55L0%0.0
1-3Samford (305.0)SCA65-68W100%0.0
1-5Chattanooga (112.0)SCA64-68W100%0.0
1-8VMI (286.0)SCH75-70W100%0.0
1-10Samford (305.0)SCH72-62W100%0.0
1-15The Citadel (327.0)SCA69-66L0%0.0
1-17Western Carolina (220.0)SCH62-43W100%0.0
1-22Furman (293.0)SCH74-49W100%0.0
1-24East Tennessee St. (192.0)SCH72-64W100%0.0
1-29UNC Greensboro (309.0)SCA42-58W100%0.0
1-31Mercer (212.0)SCH49-46W100%0.0
2-5East Tennessee St. (192.0)SCA64-74W100%0.0
2-7VMI (286.0)SCA62-65W100%0.0
2-12Chattanooga (112.0)SCH46-56L0%0.0
2-14Western Carolina (220.0)SCA55-75W100%0.0
2-19UNC Greensboro (309.0)SCH77-62W100%0.0
2-21The Citadel (327.0)SCH78-52W100%0.0
2-26Mercer (212.0)SCA72-76W100%0.0
2-28Furman (293.0)SCA60-62W100%0.0
3-7UNC Greensboro (309.0)SCN70-52W100%0.0
3-8Western Carolina (220.0)SCN73-61W100%0.0
3-9Furman (293.0)SCN67-64W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wofford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wofford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wofford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WoffordSC26.6226.6285.3385.3318.8118.81
FurmanSC5.835.8332.1432.14-2.08-2.08
Western CarolinaSC5.725.7248.1548.15-0.21-0.21
UNC GreensboroSC5.725.7229.6329.63-2.33-2.33
MercerSC4.264.2655.1755.170.440.44
VMISC4.254.2534.6234.62-1.31-1.31
The CitadelSC4.254.2528.0028.00-1.87-1.87
SamfordSC4.244.2441.3841.38-0.73-0.73
ChattanoogaSC4.204.2067.8667.861.501.50
East Tennessee St.SC4.204.2053.8553.850.320.32
PresbyterianBSth1.771.7722.2222.22-0.98-0.98
DukeACC1.761.7687.5087.501.321.32
Charleston SouthernBSth1.721.7261.5461.540.400.40
FairfieldMAAC1.681.6823.3323.33-0.90-0.90
North Carolina St.ACC1.661.6662.5062.500.420.42
West VirginiaB121.641.6470.9770.970.690.69
South DakotaSum1.641.6450.0050.000.000.00
IonaMAAC1.611.6178.7978.790.930.93
Sam Houston St.Slnd1.611.6175.0075.000.810.81
StanfordP121.611.6158.0658.060.260.26
William & MaryCAA1.561.5658.6258.620.270.27
LongwoodBSth0.250.2528.1228.12-0.11-0.11
High PointBSth0.220.2267.8667.860.080.08
Virginia TechACC0.210.2133.3333.33-0.07-0.07
College of CharlestonCAA0.210.2127.2727.27-0.10-0.10
North CarolinaACC0.200.2068.5768.570.070.07
UNC AshevilleBSth0.190.1942.8642.86-0.03-0.03
LibertyBSth0.190.1914.2914.29-0.14-0.14
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.190.1956.6756.670.020.02
ElonCAA0.180.1841.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.170.1740.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.170.1768.9768.970.060.06
CampbellBSth0.160.1624.1424.14-0.08-0.08
Gardner WebbBSth0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
MinnesotaB100.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.150.1526.6726.67-0.07-0.07
MaristMAAC0.150.1521.8821.88-0.09-0.09
MonmouthMAAC0.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
WinthropBSth0.140.1455.1755.170.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.130.1351.5251.520.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
TCUB120.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.120.1247.0647.06-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
SienaMAAC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
NavyPat0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.110.1162.0762.070.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
HofstraCAA0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.1065.5265.520.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.04-0.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
RiderMAAC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Notre DameACC0.090.0985.2985.290.070.07
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
Michigan St.B100.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0886.6786.670.060.06
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
ArmyPat0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
AlabamaSEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
IndianaB100.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
UNLVMWC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
DelawareCAA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
WisconsinB100.080.0891.1891.180.060.06
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
IPFWSum0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
UC DavisBW0.080.0879.3179.310.040.04
DrexelCAA0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
PurdueB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
BaylorB120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
TexasB120.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
WashingtonP120.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0758.8258.820.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
SyracuseACC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0790.6290.620.060.06
Air ForceMWC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
George WashingtonA100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
MarylandB100.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0675.8675.860.030.03
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
VCUA100.060.0674.2974.290.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0542.3142.31-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
LipscombASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
LSUSEC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
PacificWCC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ArizonaP120.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
Arizona St.P120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
CaliforniaP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
USCP120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Washington St.P120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
BucknellPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
ColoradoP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
TempleAmer0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
ToledoMAC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00