Northeastern

Conference:	CAA
Expected RPI:	162.8
Current RPI:	154
Expected SOS:	163
Current SOS:	145
Current Record:	11-12
Expected Record:	14-15
Current Conf Record:	7-6
Expected Conf Record:	10-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	1.01%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-3
Current OOC Record:	4-6
Expected OOC Record:	4-7
Expected OOC RPI:	130
Expected OOC SOS:	119

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-12	118.4	0.71%
16-13	131.4	7.37%
15-14	146.6	25.37%
14-15	163.9	37.46%
13-16	181.5	23.59%
12-17	197.7	5.27%
11-18	212.2	0.22%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northeastern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Boston University (165.8)	AE	A	74-82	W	100%	0.0
11-14	Massachusetts (75.6)	A10	A	83-67	L	0%	0.0
11-19	Southern Illinois (226.0)	MVC	H	64-57	W	100%	0.0
11-26	St. John's (153.5)	BE	A	64-78	W	100%	0.0
11-30	La Salle (68.4)	A10	A	68-51	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Old Dominion (124.4)	CAA	H	59-69	L	0%	0.0
12-6	Bradley (247.1)	MVC	A	79-68	L	0%	0.0
12-18	Princeton (116.3)	Ivy	H	62-71	L	0%	0.0
12-20	Louisiana Tech (202.9)	WAC	A	56-53	L	0%	0.0
12-22	North Carolina St. (60.4)	ACC	A	88-59	L	0%	0.0
12-30	Vermont (168.3)	AE	A	51-53	W	100%	0.0
1-2	Towson (304.6)	CAA	A	48-57	W	100%	0.0
1-4	NC Wilmington (206.4)	CAA	H	62-70	L	0%	0.0
1-7	James Madison (250.9)	CAA	A	56-68	W	100%	0.0
1-11	Hofstra (237.3)	CAA	A	62-64	W	100%	0.0
1-14	William & Mary (303.9)	CAA	H	64-50	W	100%	0.0
1-18	Georgia St. (123.3)	CAA	H	60-57	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Drexel (79.6)	CAA	A	71-53	L	0%	0.0
1-23	Old Dominion (124.4)	CAA	A	69-57	L	0%	0.0
1-25	Delaware (181.6)	CAA	H	62-61	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Hofstra (237.3)	CAA	H	58-51	W	100%	0.0
2-1	Drexel (79.6)	CAA	H	53-61	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Virginia Commonwealth (77.5)	CAA	A	59-56	L	0%	0.0
2-8	Georgia St. (123.3)	CAA	A	0-0		14%	-11.8
2-11	William & Mary (303.9)	CAA	A	0-0		74%	6.9
2-14	Towson (304.6)	CAA	H	0-0		95%	18.3
2-18	Stony Brook (149.6)	AE	H	0-0		50%	-0.0
2-22	George Mason (95.3)	CAA	H	0-0		40%	-2.8
2-25	Delaware (181.6)	CAA	A	0-0		35%	-4.1

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northeastern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Northeastern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Northeastern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Northeastern	CAA	26.31	26.23	52.29	52.13	1.21	1.12
Drexel	CAA	4.94	4.27	77.27	76.48	2.70	2.26
Towson	CAA	2.98	4.24	4.17	5.47	-2.73	-3.78
Delaware	CAA	2.88	4.24	50.00	52.02	0.00	0.17
William & Mary	CAA	2.80	4.19	13.04	13.44	-2.07	-3.06
Georgia St.	CAA	2.80	4.16	69.57	71.62	1.10	1.80
Hofstra	CAA	4.92	4.16	34.78	37.84	-1.50	-1.01
Old Dominion	CAA	4.83	4.16	56.52	55.42	0.63	0.45
James Madison	CAA	2.84	2.60	41.67	41.50	-0.47	-0.44
NC Wilmington	CAA	2.80	2.55	36.36	33.84	-0.76	-0.82
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	2.89	2.55	79.17	77.35	1.68	1.39
George Mason	CAA	0.76	2.52	76.00	72.90	0.39	1.15
Boston University	AE	2.44	1.99	52.00	55.63	0.10	0.22
Vermont	AE	2.39	1.95	64.00	65.97	0.67	0.62
La Salle	A10	2.40	1.95	69.57	67.79	0.94	0.69
Bradley	MVC	2.36	1.84	20.83	22.35	-1.38	-1.02
Massachusetts	A10	2.26	1.84	72.73	67.57	1.03	0.64
Stony Brook	AE	0.13	1.84	68.18	69.71	0.05	0.72
Princeton	Ivy	2.31	1.81	44.44	51.16	-0.26	0.04
St. John's	BE	2.22	1.78	45.45	41.58	-0.20	-0.30
Southern Illinois	MVC	2.26	1.78	36.36	33.25	-0.62	-0.60
North Carolina St.	ACC	2.23	1.75	69.57	63.34	0.87	0.47
Louisiana Tech	WAC	2.17	1.72	40.00	41.50	-0.43	-0.29
Binghamton	AE	0.30	0.29	0.00	4.04	-0.30	-0.26
Rhode Island	A10	0.31	0.28	20.83	20.61	-0.18	-0.17
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.17	0.26	13.04	14.47	-0.13	-0.18
New Hampshire	AE	0.13	0.23	33.33	37.75	-0.04	-0.06
Albany	AE	0.13	0.20	57.69	58.54	0.02	0.03
Hartford	AE	0.17	0.20	20.83	22.81	-0.10	-0.11
Liberty	BSth	0.18	0.20	27.27	27.33	-0.08	-0.09
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.18	0.20	62.50	61.43	0.04	0.05
Richmond	A10	0.22	0.20	50.00	48.48	0.00	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.15	0.18	36.84	41.47	-0.04	-0.03
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.19	0.18	54.55	56.80	0.02	0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.24	0.18	40.00	39.70	-0.05	-0.04
Maine	AE	0.13	0.18	47.62	48.01	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.18	0.17	21.74	25.63	-0.10	-0.08
Missouri St.	MVC	0.09	0.17	54.17	57.11	0.01	0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.22	0.17	62.50	62.42	0.06	0.04
Manhattan	MAAC	0.13	0.17	68.00	69.08	0.05	0.06
Virginia	ACC	0.18	0.17	81.82	76.80	0.11	0.09
George Washington	A10	0.22	0.17	34.78	32.05	-0.07	-0.06
Illinois St.	MVC	0.19	0.14	62.50	62.07	0.05	0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.09	0.14	34.78	37.18	-0.03	-0.04
Boston College	ACC	0.18	0.14	30.43	26.42	-0.07	-0.07
Temple	A10	0.09	0.14	77.27	75.07	0.05	0.07
Siena	MAAC	0.15	0.14	43.48	45.03	-0.02	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.18	0.14	45.83	45.52	-0.02	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.13	0.14	82.61	81.41	0.08	0.09
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.13	0.14	36.36	39.73	-0.04	-0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.17	0.14	79.17	80.14	0.10	0.08
Long Island	NEC	0.22	0.14	70.83	71.06	0.09	0.06
South Florida	BE	0.22	0.14	54.55	48.54	0.02	-0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.15	0.12	43.48	42.98	-0.02	-0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.08	0.12	90.48	87.91	0.07	0.09
Creighton	MVC	0.13	0.12	84.00	82.62	0.09	0.08
Drake	MVC	0.09	0.12	52.17	50.01	0.00	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.18	0.12	47.83	47.08	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.09	0.12	56.52	54.28	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.18	0.12	82.61	80.50	0.12	0.07
Bucknell	Pat	0.14	0.11	73.91	75.03	0.07	0.06
St. Louis	A10	0.14	0.11	77.27	77.70	0.07	0.06
Fairfield	MAAC	0.18	0.11	56.52	54.88	0.02	0.01
Missouri	B12	0.13	0.11	91.67	87.92	0.11	0.09
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.09	0.11	45.00	44.18	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.13	0.11	63.64	63.17	0.04	0.03
Columbia	Ivy	0.06	0.09	55.00	54.81	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.06	0.09	50.00	46.87	0.00	-0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.06	0.09	27.27	23.78	-0.03	-0.05
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.04	0.09	14.29	17.12	-0.03	-0.06
Yale	Ivy	0.10	0.09	72.22	63.23	0.04	0.02
Elon	SC	0.15	0.09	52.38	49.77	0.01	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.10	0.09	72.73	71.57	0.05	0.04
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	38.89	41.49	-0.02	-0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.10	0.09	80.95	76.42	0.06	0.05
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.09	8.70	13.12	-0.04	-0.06
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.10	0.09	44.44	45.20	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.14	0.09	82.61	84.58	0.09	0.06
Dayton	A10	0.09	0.09	60.87	60.96	0.02	0.02
Xavier	A10	0.09	0.09	65.22	63.69	0.03	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.14	0.09	47.83	43.63	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.13	0.09	34.78	34.46	-0.04	-0.03
Florida International	SB	0.05	0.09	33.33	37.11	-0.02	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.09	0.09	73.91	74.94	0.04	0.04
Niagara	MAAC	0.09	0.09	36.00	40.36	-0.03	-0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.13	0.09	21.74	22.75	-0.08	-0.05
Fordham	A10	0.09	0.08	40.91	34.45	-0.02	-0.03
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.13	0.08	56.52	57.14	0.02	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.08	60.00	59.09	0.01	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.09	0.08	59.09	56.38	0.02	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.13	0.08	44.44	41.65	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.09	0.08	66.67	63.50	0.03	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.08	39.13	42.16	-0.02	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.13	0.08	96.00	93.53	0.12	0.07
Michigan	B10	0.09	0.08	69.57	66.33	0.03	0.03
NC Greensboro	SC	0.09	0.08	34.78	33.38	-0.03	-0.03
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.13	0.08	56.52	55.97	0.02	0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.04	0.06	8.70	12.14	-0.03	-0.05
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.06	75.00	75.73	0.02	0.03
Fresno St.	WAC	0.05	0.06	39.13	44.46	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	WAC	0.05	0.06	57.14	53.02	0.01	0.00
Idaho	WAC	0.05	0.06	50.00	51.46	0.00	0.00
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.10	0.06	69.57	69.00	0.04	0.02
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.06	27.27	26.96	-0.02	-0.03
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.06	50.00	52.95	0.00	0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.10	0.06	45.45	47.09	-0.01	-0.00
Davidson	SC	0.09	0.06	77.27	77.37	0.05	0.03
Campbell	BSth	0.09	0.06	57.69	58.27	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.06	47.83	45.51	-0.00	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.09	0.06	60.87	53.44	0.02	0.00
North Dakota	GWC	0.04	0.06	33.33	41.30	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.10	0.06	76.19	70.71	0.05	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.06	50.00	51.75	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.06	42.86	43.11	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.06	30.00	34.18	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.09	0.06	69.57	70.42	0.04	0.02
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.06	21.74	21.75	-0.03	-0.03
Samford	SC	0.05	0.06	33.33	35.20	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	14.29	16.80	-0.03	-0.04
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.00	0.06	57.14	60.72	0.00	0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.06	54.55	57.71	0.00	0.01
Washington	P12	0.05	0.06	69.57	66.59	0.02	0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.09	0.06	34.78	34.75	-0.03	-0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.09	0.06	45.45	45.69	-0.01	-0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.09	0.06	50.00	49.46	0.00	-0.00
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.06	58.33	59.92	0.01	0.01
Belmont	ASun	0.04	0.06	70.83	73.74	0.02	0.03
Central Florida	CUSA	0.09	0.06	71.43	66.55	0.04	0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.06	69.57	65.37	0.02	0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.09	0.06	30.43	29.49	-0.03	-0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.04	0.06	42.11	49.86	-0.01	-0.00
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.06	47.83	42.19	-0.00	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.06	47.83	48.88	-0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.06	82.61	79.93	0.03	0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.06	80.95	77.45	0.03	0.03
Kansas	B12	0.04	0.06	78.26	78.42	0.02	0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.06	86.96	83.30	0.03	0.04
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.06	62.50	59.52	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.09	0.06	68.00	70.06	0.03	0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.04	0.06	65.22	63.65	0.01	0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.09	0.06	95.83	92.00	0.08	0.05
Texas	B12	0.09	0.06	62.50	62.20	0.02	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.09	0.06	34.78	37.27	-0.03	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.00	0.03	33.33	34.54	-0.00	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.00	0.03	63.64	57.79	0.00	0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.00	0.03	44.00	45.88	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.03	68.42	66.51	0.02	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.03	22.73	24.64	-0.03	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.18	0.02	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.03	43.48	44.26	-0.01	-0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.00	0.03	55.00	57.42	0.00	0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.00	0.03	27.78	29.77	-0.00	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.05	0.03	9.09	12.82	-0.04	-0.02
Furman	SC	0.05	0.03	45.45	47.20	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.41	0.02	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.03	8.70	8.99	-0.04	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.03	59.09	59.78	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.03	19.05	19.39	-0.03	-0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.03	5.26	7.29	-0.04	-0.03
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	55.00	54.45	0.01	0.00
Portland St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	42.86	45.93	-0.01	-0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.03	26.32	29.64	-0.02	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.03	27.78	29.51	-0.02	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.03	38.10	37.80	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.03	85.71	82.22	0.04	0.02
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.05	0.03	76.19	75.98	0.03	0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.03	38.10	40.84	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	40.91	42.97	-0.01	-0.00
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.03	33.33	38.39	-0.02	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.05	0.03	18.18	15.00	-0.03	-0.02
Akron	MAC	0.04	0.03	68.18	67.98	0.02	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.04	0.03	69.57	70.16	0.02	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.01
Army	Pat	0.05	0.03	40.91	41.68	-0.01	-0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.04	0.03	17.39	19.76	-0.03	-0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	62.35	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.04	0.03	50.00	52.04	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.04	0.03	71.43	69.05	0.02	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.00	0.03	61.90	67.29	0.00	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.03	79.17	74.20	0.03	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.00	0.03	18.18	19.91	-0.00	-0.02
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.00	0.03	78.26	74.29	0.00	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.04	0.03	34.78	33.44	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.03	80.00	76.67	0.03	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.04	0.03	34.78	35.19	-0.01	-0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.00	0.03	28.00	28.87	-0.00	-0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.03	68.18	67.72	0.02	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.03	42.11	45.89	-0.01	-0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.00	0.03	65.22	62.67	0.00	0.01
Providence	BE	0.05	0.03	52.00	48.78	0.00	-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.04	0.03	47.62	47.19	-0.00	-0.00
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	68.33	0.02	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.04	0.03	30.43	29.57	-0.02	-0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.03	50.00	45.20	0.00	-0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.03	19.05	24.60	-0.03	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.04	0.03	9.52	11.47	-0.04	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.04	0.03	40.91	39.81	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.00	0.03	54.55	56.78	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.88	0.02	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.00	0.03	56.52	55.22	0.00	0.00
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.03	66.67	65.98	0.02	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.04	0.03	75.00	74.01	0.02	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.04	0.03	56.52	57.20	0.01	0.00