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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Northeastern

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:109.0
Current RPI:109
Expected SOS:92
Current SOS:92
Current Record:17-15
Expected Record:17-15
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-2
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:88
Expected OOC SOS:107



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-15109.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northeastern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Boston University (196.0)PatA84-87W100%0.0
11-20Florida Atlantic (300.0)CUSAN60-58W100%0.0
11-21Lipscomb (269.0)ASunN67-79W100%0.0
11-22Miami OH (195.0)MACA67-61L0%0.0
11-27Miami FL (9.0)ACCA77-78W100%0.0
12-2Harvard (193.0)IvyH80-71W100%0.0
12-5Detroit (204.0)HorzA76-73L0%0.0
12-7Western Michigan (202.0)MACA87-86L0%0.0
12-12Stony Brook (59.0)AEH75-62W100%0.0
12-19Michigan St. (12.0)B10H58-78L0%0.0
12-22Vermont (126.0)AEH77-65W100%0.0
12-29North Carolina St. (123.0)ACCA72-66L0%0.0
12-31Elon (160.0)CAAA79-86W100%0.0
1-2UNC Wilmington (45.0)CAAA63-65W100%0.0
1-7Delaware (274.0)CAAH88-56W100%0.0
1-9William & Mary (67.0)CAAA78-60L0%0.0
1-14James Madison (103.0)CAAH63-75L0%0.0
1-16Delaware (274.0)CAAA60-69W100%0.0
1-21Hofstra (54.0)CAAH92-96L0%0.0
1-23Towson (150.0)CAAH72-79L0%0.0
1-28College of Charleston (135.0)CAAA68-61L0%0.0
1-30Elon (160.0)CAAH67-71L0%0.0
2-4William & Mary (67.0)CAAH77-86L0%0.0
2-6UNC Wilmington (45.0)CAAH73-90L0%0.0
2-11Towson (150.0)CAAA44-47W100%0.0
2-13Drexel (247.0)CAAH70-60W100%0.0
2-18James Madison (103.0)CAAA94-95W100%0.0
2-21Hofstra (54.0)CAAA65-60L0%0.0
2-25College of Charleston (135.0)CAAH58-57W100%0.0
2-27Drexel (247.0)CAAA59-61W100%0.0
3-5Towson (150.0)CAAN60-71W100%0.0
3-6UNC Wilmington (45.0)CAAN73-70L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northeastern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northeastern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northeastern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NortheasternCAA26.4926.4954.2754.272.262.26
UNC WilmingtonCAA5.695.6977.7877.783.163.16
TowsonCAA5.575.5762.9662.961.441.44
HofstraCAA4.304.3070.0070.001.721.72
College of CharlestonCAA4.214.2153.5753.570.300.30
William & MaryCAA4.184.1859.2659.260.770.77
DrexelCAA4.164.1621.4321.43-2.38-2.38
James MadisonCAA4.144.1465.5265.521.281.28
DelawareCAA4.114.1125.0025.00-2.05-2.05
ElonCAA4.114.1146.4346.43-0.29-0.29
Western MichiganMAC1.721.7234.4834.48-0.53-0.53
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.681.6823.3323.33-0.90-0.90
Stony BrookAE1.681.6882.7682.761.101.10
VermontAE1.671.6762.5062.500.420.42
North Carolina St.ACC1.641.6446.8846.88-0.10-0.10
Miami OHMAC1.641.6435.4835.48-0.48-0.48
Miami FLACC1.641.6480.6580.651.001.00
LipscombASun1.611.6133.3333.33-0.54-0.54
HarvardIvy1.611.6144.4444.44-0.18-0.18
Boston UniversityPat1.591.5956.6756.670.210.21
Michigan St.B101.591.5984.8584.851.111.11
DetroitHorz1.561.5646.4346.43-0.11-0.11
East CarolinaAmer0.210.2137.5037.50-0.05-0.05
UMBCAE0.200.2021.8821.88-0.11-0.11
La SalleA100.200.2026.6726.67-0.09-0.09
BuffaloMAC0.180.1857.5857.580.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
Loyola MDPat0.150.1530.0030.00-0.06-0.06
FIUCUSA0.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.150.1521.8821.88-0.08-0.08
VirginiaACC0.150.1578.7978.790.090.09
Eastern MichiganMAC0.150.1548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.150.1558.6258.620.030.03
BinghamtonAE0.150.1526.6726.67-0.07-0.07
DukeACC0.150.1569.7069.700.060.06
ColumbiaIvy0.130.1365.5265.520.040.04
PrincetonIvy0.130.1377.7877.780.070.07
Central MichiganMAC0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.130.1312.9012.90-0.10-0.10
CampbellBSth0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
High PointBSth0.130.1364.2964.290.040.04
George MasonA100.130.1334.3834.38-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
MarshallCUSA0.130.1351.5251.520.000.00
HartfordAE0.130.1328.1228.12-0.05-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
AlbanyAE0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
UMass LowellAE0.120.1235.7135.71-0.04-0.04
MaineAE0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
PennIvy0.110.1137.0437.04-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1062.8662.860.030.03
IonaMAAC0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.100.1024.2424.24-0.05-0.05
Kent St.MAC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
SyracuseACC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
AkronMAC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
MichiganB100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Notre DameACC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Penn St.B100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
LibertyBSth0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
YaleIvy0.080.0877.7877.780.040.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
UMKCWAC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
UCFAmer0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
LehighPat0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
LSUSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
MaristMAAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
UTSACUSA0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
PittsburghACC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
OhioMAC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
BucknellPat0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.070.0782.3582.350.050.05
FloridaSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
PurdueB100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Ohio St.B100.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
BrownIvy0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
MassachusettsA100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
DavidsonA100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
TempleAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
The CitadelSC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
ProvidenceBE0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
IPFWSum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
ArmyPat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
ColgatePat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
LafayettePat0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
USC UpstateASun0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
IUPUISum0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
MarylandB100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
RutgersB100.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0382.1482.140.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
DenverSum0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
ButlerBE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.020.0218.5218.52-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
XavierBE0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
Arizona St.P120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
WinthropBSth0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
IllinoisB100.020.0244.1244.12-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01