live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Dec 16, 2014.


Northeastern

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:118.3
Current RPI:61
Expected SOS:186
Current SOS:167
Current Record:6-2
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-2
Current OOC Record:6-2
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:92
Expected OOC SOS:243



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-426.00.01%
26-534.00.06%
25-644.20.26%
24-752.31.13%
23-861.13.18%
22-973.26.83%
21-1085.712.38%
20-11100.216.80%
19-12115.717.84%
18-13131.716.52%
17-14149.312.77%
16-15167.57.17%
15-16184.93.40%
14-17203.11.20%
13-18222.50.33%
12-19237.90.11%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northeastern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Boston University (203.8)PatN65-71W100%0.0
11-18Florida St. (228.9)ACCA73-76W100%0.0
11-22Navy (323.1)PatN68-44W100%0.0
11-23Manhattan (289.5)MAACN65-51W100%0.0
11-26Massachusetts (90.0)A10A79-54L0%0.0
11-29Fairfield (244.3)MAACH57-48W100%0.0
12-3Harvard (46.0)IvyA60-46L0%0.0
12-6Western Michigan (121.1)MACH81-69W100%0.0
12-17Cal Poly (266.0)BWN0-075%8.1
12-20Santa Clara (196.4)WCCA0-048%-0.7
12-22Saint Mary's (116.8)WCCA0-031%-5.9
12-31Richmond (92.2)A10A0-027%-7.4
1-3Delaware (332.6)CAAA0-087%13.2
1-5UNC Wilmington (95.7)CAAH0-061%3.2
1-8James Madison (158.0)CAAA0-047%-0.8
1-10Towson (194.4)CAAA0-053%0.8
1-14Hofstra (70.8)CAAH0-043%-2.1
1-17College of Charleston (176.7)CAAH0-074%7.7
1-19Detroit (131.7)HorzH0-064%4.2
1-22James Madison (158.0)CAAH0-076%8.2
1-24William & Mary (105.9)CAAA0-033%-5.2
1-28Drexel (224.2)CAAA0-051%0.4
1-31Elon (185.8)CAAH0-073%7.2
2-4Towson (194.4)CAAH0-080%9.8
2-7Delaware (332.6)CAAH0-097%22.2
2-12Hofstra (70.8)CAAA0-017%-11.1
2-14UNC Wilmington (95.7)CAAA0-031%-5.8
2-18William & Mary (105.9)CAAH0-063%3.8
2-21Drexel (224.2)CAAH0-079%9.3
2-26Elon (185.8)CAAA0-044%-1.7
2-28College of Charleston (176.7)CAAA0-046%-1.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northeastern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northeastern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northeastern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NortheasternCAA27.8926.3682.3564.8718.057.84
James MadisonCAA0.004.1466.6754.280.000.35
TowsonCAA0.004.1466.6752.640.000.22
DelawareCAA0.004.140.008.22-0.00-3.46
William & MaryCAA0.004.1257.1456.570.000.54
College of CharlestonCAA0.004.1150.0045.920.00-0.34
HofstraCAA0.004.1177.7878.080.002.31
ElonCAA0.004.1137.5049.32-0.00-0.06
DrexelCAA0.004.1025.0037.47-0.00-1.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.004.1040.0058.84-0.000.73
RichmondA100.001.7550.0055.620.000.20
Cal PolyBW0.001.7333.3332.75-0.00-0.60
NavyPat6.251.7222.2221.92-3.47-0.97
MassachusettsA107.431.7255.5653.570.830.12
ManhattanMAAC7.261.7228.5738.33-3.11-0.40
Saint Mary'sWCC0.001.7071.4356.440.000.22
Santa ClaraWCC0.001.7050.0041.050.00-0.30
Boston UniversityPat6.701.7037.5043.64-1.67-0.22
FairfieldMAAC6.641.6750.0041.980.00-0.27
HarvardIvy6.911.6783.3372.654.610.76
Florida St.ACC6.951.6750.0034.240.00-0.53
DetroitHorz0.001.6150.0054.050.000.13
Western MichiganMAC6.251.6171.4356.992.680.23
La SalleA100.000.2450.0049.920.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.1966.6772.270.000.09
DavidsonA100.000.1987.5076.910.000.10
San DiegoWCC0.780.1754.5557.870.070.03
ArmyPat0.000.1777.7869.100.000.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1720.0037.42-0.00-0.04
ColgatePat0.000.1720.0042.53-0.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.390.1610.0018.60-0.31-0.10
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1644.4456.62-0.000.02
CampbellBSth0.000.1614.2944.11-0.00-0.02
Miami FLACC0.000.1690.0075.840.000.08
St. BonaventureA100.000.1675.0064.650.000.05
George MasonA100.390.1625.0025.93-0.20-0.08
GonzagaWCC0.000.1590.0091.020.000.12
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1544.4449.60-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.450.1457.1452.850.060.01
PacificWCC0.390.1442.8638.51-0.06-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1487.5080.890.000.09
BYUWCC0.000.1466.6767.890.000.05
PepperdineWCC0.000.1471.4360.450.000.03
BucknellPat0.350.1440.0036.16-0.07-0.04
Loyola MDPat0.000.1433.3326.81-0.00-0.06
QuinnipiacMAAC0.690.1437.5046.01-0.17-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.1445.4551.71-0.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.350.1436.3647.60-0.09-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.1462.5055.430.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1455.5639.850.00-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.310.1450.0061.890.000.03
SienaMAAC0.310.1437.5051.38-0.080.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.1362.5072.760.000.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.350.1350.0056.650.000.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.350.1322.2230.95-0.19-0.05
CornellIvy0.000.1255.5648.540.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.1275.0069.770.000.05
PortlandWCC0.000.1275.0049.190.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1228.5722.66-0.00-0.06
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1162.5064.640.000.03
AmericanPat0.000.1160.0065.090.000.03
LafayettePat0.000.1175.0069.750.000.04
LehighPat0.000.1142.8651.80-0.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.1128.5732.96-0.00-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.1122.2238.58-0.00-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.1133.3347.31-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1137.5037.27-0.00-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1128.5741.09-0.00-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1114.2932.16-0.00-0.04
TempleAmer0.000.1160.0054.040.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.11100.0086.080.000.08
DukeACC0.350.11100.0087.520.350.08
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1155.5665.940.000.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1180.0069.650.000.04
South FloridaAmer0.000.1150.0048.280.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.660.1116.6729.59-0.44-0.04
FordhamA100.000.1128.5727.72-0.00-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.110.0014.53-0.00-0.08
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1080.0063.530.000.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0936.3639.31-0.00-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.390.0940.0050.27-0.080.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0937.5046.90-0.00-0.01
PennIvy0.310.0937.5032.38-0.08-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.450.0950.0051.980.000.00
WoffordSC0.350.0975.0077.280.170.05
OhioMAC0.000.0950.0037.020.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0960.0064.780.000.03
HowardMEAC0.000.0933.3343.17-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0970.0071.650.000.04
ToledoMAC0.000.0955.5655.960.000.01
VMISC0.310.0933.3338.85-0.10-0.02
BinghamtonAE1.050.080.0011.93-1.05-0.06
Miami OHMAC0.000.0822.2227.10-0.00-0.04
NorthwesternB100.000.0866.6744.720.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.390.0830.0031.51-0.16-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.08100.0085.390.000.06
Boston CollegeACC0.310.0866.6741.850.10-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0850.0061.230.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0877.7869.570.000.03
Notre DameACC0.970.0890.9171.250.800.03
PittsburghACC0.000.0862.5053.840.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.660.0872.7352.480.300.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0866.6766.860.000.03
LSUSEC0.310.0877.7861.940.170.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0850.0054.960.000.01
VCUA100.000.0870.0071.110.000.03
BrownIvy0.000.0640.0034.21-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0622.2230.22-0.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.0644.4447.41-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0666.6753.390.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0627.2737.98-0.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0685.7161.820.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0642.8644.92-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0637.5064.38-0.000.02
YaleIvy0.000.0670.0064.560.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0616.6725.01-0.00-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0637.5031.71-0.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0660.0053.940.000.00
AkronMAC0.000.0660.0056.480.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0683.3363.180.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.0666.6757.220.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0683.3366.520.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0677.7864.850.000.02
New HampshireAE0.350.0657.1464.630.050.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0650.0033.140.00-0.02
Penn St.B100.000.0690.9154.340.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.390.060.007.95-0.39-0.05
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0650.0032.740.00-0.02
USCP120.000.0660.0037.100.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0675.0066.870.000.02
Michigan St.B100.310.0670.0070.960.120.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0611.1129.23-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0637.5048.43-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0633.3340.42-0.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0671.4377.180.000.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0620.0020.84-0.00-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0630.0028.28-0.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.310.0641.6743.24-0.05-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3334.02-0.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0644.4431.46-0.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0633.3343.11-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0671.4361.160.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0082.270.000.04
Wright St.Horz0.000.0655.5653.100.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0650.0051.120.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.050.0039.43-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.350.0550.0030.140.00-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0566.6755.560.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0520.0033.87-0.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0566.6759.740.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.0510.0021.35-0.00-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0542.8633.13-0.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0566.6745.880.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0557.1456.000.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.0533.3338.84-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0525.0029.22-0.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0542.8656.16-0.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0510.0040.34-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.050.0013.85-0.00-0.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0525.0040.22-0.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0522.2227.64-0.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0588.8984.020.000.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0550.0057.760.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0555.5631.620.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0522.2236.43-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0537.5054.91-0.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0577.7866.040.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0555.5638.250.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0514.2933.61-0.00-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0550.0037.860.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0590.0067.550.000.02
BryantNEC0.000.0328.5746.92-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0390.0065.960.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0330.0028.54-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0340.0044.19-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.450.0383.3358.570.300.01
IPFWSum0.000.0357.1456.130.000.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0312.5024.45-0.00-0.02
VermontAE0.450.0350.0060.040.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0375.0067.800.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.0372.7351.370.000.00
DenverSum0.000.0344.4455.06-0.000.00
DrakeMVC0.390.0320.0020.57-0.23-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0371.4360.170.000.01
KentuckySEC0.350.03100.0094.460.350.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0340.0065.07-0.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0340.0049.29-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0387.5064.670.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0357.1445.530.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.350.0355.5654.360.040.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0350.0053.970.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.0340.0028.86-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.0355.5642.720.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0344.4444.67-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.000.0362.5057.800.000.00
RutgersB100.390.0360.0035.390.08-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.310.0342.8655.87-0.040.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0387.5085.930.000.02
AlbanyAE0.000.0333.3348.50-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0360.0062.380.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.350.0350.0074.020.000.01
South DakotaSum0.350.0320.0040.86-0.21-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.350.0350.0046.750.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.310.0375.0070.980.160.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0377.7851.200.000.00
IUPUISum0.000.0320.0026.66-0.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0357.1447.630.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.350.0366.6742.930.12-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0390.0079.360.000.02
StetsonASun0.000.0311.1129.36-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6757.080.000.00