Northeastern

Conference:	CAA
Expected RPI:	55.0
Current RPI:	55
Expected SOS:	102
Current SOS:	102
Current Record:	22-10
Expected Record:	22-10
Current Conf Record:	16-5
Expected Conf Record:	16-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	13-1
Current OOC Record:	6-5
Expected OOC Record:	6-5
Expected OOC RPI:	40
Expected OOC SOS:	14

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
22-10	55.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northeastern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Boston University (212.0)	Pat	A	59-65	W	100%
11-17	Stanford (86.0)	P12	A	73-59	L	0%
11-19	Ohio St. (20.0)	B10	A	80-55	L	0%
11-24	Utah St. (152.0)	MWC	N	67-71	L	0%
11-25	Furman (97.0)	SC	N	67-78	L	0%
11-30	Harvard (117.0)	Ivy	H	77-61	W	100%
12-2	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	H	84-66	W	100%
12-5	Bucknell (80.0)	Pat	H	82-64	W	100%
12-9	Vermont (60.0)	AE	H	71-67	W	100%
12-18	Kent St. (154.0)	MAC	A	69-81	W	100%
12-20	St. Bonaventure (24.0)	A10	A	84-65	L	0%
12-30	James Madison (272.0)	CAA	A	70-81	W	100%
1-2	Hofstra (121.0)	CAA	H	70-71	L	0%
1-5	Elon (205.0)	CAA	H	72-60	W	100%
1-7	James Madison (272.0)	CAA	H	80-67	W	100%
1-11	College of Charleston (57.0)	CAA	A	82-66	L	0%
1-13	UNC Wilmington (245.0)	CAA	A	77-81	W	100%
1-18	William & Mary (94.0)	CAA	A	70-90	W	100%
1-20	Delaware (233.0)	CAA	H	76-64	W	100%
1-25	Hofstra (121.0)	CAA	A	67-81	W	100%
1-27	Drexel (242.0)	CAA	A	68-67	L	0%
2-1	College of Charleston (57.0)	CAA	H	64-69	L	0%
2-3	UNC Wilmington (245.0)	CAA	H	107-100	W	100%
2-8	Delaware (233.0)	CAA	A	67-70	W	100%
2-10	Towson (153.0)	CAA	A	62-77	W	100%
2-15	Drexel (242.0)	CAA	H	75-69	W	100%
2-17	William & Mary (94.0)	CAA	H	69-67	W	100%
2-22	Towson (153.0)	CAA	H	80-75	W	100%
2-24	Elon (205.0)	CAA	A	59-81	W	100%
3-4	Delaware (233.0)	CAA	N	74-50	W	100%
3-5	UNC Wilmington (245.0)	CAA	N	79-52	W	100%
3-6	College of Charleston (57.0)	CAA	N	83-76	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northeastern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Northeastern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Northeastern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Northeastern	CAA	26.58	26.58	70.67	70.67	10.99	10.99
College of Charleston	CAA	5.72	5.72	75.00	75.00	2.86	2.86
Delaware	CAA	5.69	5.69	42.86	42.86	-0.81	-0.81
UNC Wilmington	CAA	5.69	5.69	33.33	33.33	-1.90	-1.90
William & Mary	CAA	4.25	4.25	62.96	62.96	1.10	1.10
Drexel	CAA	4.23	4.23	36.67	36.67	-1.13	-1.13
Elon	CAA	4.23	4.23	42.86	42.86	-0.60	-0.60
Hofstra	CAA	4.18	4.18	60.71	60.71	0.89	0.89
Towson	CAA	4.15	4.15	57.14	57.14	0.59	0.59
James Madison	CAA	4.15	4.15	31.03	31.03	-1.57	-1.57
Cornell	Ivy	1.72	1.72	42.31	42.31	-0.26	-0.26
Boston University	Pat	1.71	1.71	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
Harvard	Ivy	1.70	1.70	58.62	58.62	0.29	0.29
Furman	SC	1.69	1.69	66.67	66.67	0.56	0.56
Bucknell	Pat	1.66	1.66	75.76	75.76	0.86	0.86
Ohio St.	B10	1.64	1.64	74.19	74.19	0.79	0.79
Vermont	AE	1.64	1.64	81.25	81.25	1.02	1.02
Stanford	P12	1.59	1.59	53.12	53.12	0.10	0.10
St. Bonaventure	A10	1.59	1.59	77.42	77.42	0.87	0.87
Kent St.	MAC	1.56	1.56	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Utah St.	MWC	1.56	1.56	46.88	46.88	-0.10	-0.10
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.26	0.26	77.42	77.42	0.14	0.14
Yale	Ivy	0.23	0.23	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Loyola MD	Pat	0.22	0.22	26.67	26.67	-0.10	-0.10
Richmond	A10	0.22	0.22	37.50	37.50	-0.06	-0.06
Siena	MAAC	0.20	0.20	25.00	25.00	-0.10	-0.10
Penn	Ivy	0.19	0.19	74.19	74.19	0.09	0.09
Lafayette	Pat	0.18	0.18	30.00	30.00	-0.07	-0.07
Navy	Pat	0.17	0.17	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Buffalo	MAC	0.17	0.17	75.76	75.76	0.09	0.09
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.16	0.16	78.12	78.12	0.09	0.09
Davidson	A10	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Western Carolina	SC	0.15	0.15	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Army	Pat	0.15	0.15	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Colgate	Pat	0.15	0.15	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
La Salle	A10	0.15	0.15	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Stony Brook	AE	0.15	0.15	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.13	0.13	23.08	23.08	-0.07	-0.07
Manhattan	MAAC	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.13	0.13	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	A10	0.13	0.13	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Radford	BSth	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Charlotte	CUSA	0.13	0.13	17.86	17.86	-0.08	-0.08
Valparaiso	MVC	0.13	0.13	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.13	0.13	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
Rhode Island	A10	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Holy Cross	Pat	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Lehigh	Pat	0.12	0.12	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
UMBC	AE	0.12	0.12	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
New Hampshire	AE	0.12	0.12	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Brown	Ivy	0.11	0.11	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
Columbia	Ivy	0.11	0.11	26.92	26.92	-0.05	-0.05
Princeton	Ivy	0.11	0.11	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Longwood	BSth	0.10	0.10	13.33	13.33	-0.08	-0.08
FIU	CUSA	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
UMass Lowell	AE	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.10	0.10	84.38	84.38	0.07	0.07
Rider	MAAC	0.10	0.10	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Bradley	MVC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.10	0.10	24.14	24.14	-0.05	-0.05
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Mercer	SC	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
American	Pat	0.10	0.10	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Albany	AE	0.10	0.10	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Maine	AE	0.10	0.10	13.33	13.33	-0.07	-0.07
Bowling Green	MAC	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
TCU	B12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
LSU	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Canisius	MAAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Dayton	A10	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	6.67	6.67	-0.07	-0.07
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Notre Dame	ACC	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	Amer	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Monmouth	MAAC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Appalachian St.	SB	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.07	0.07	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Weber St.	BSky	0.07	0.07	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.07	0.07	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.07	0.07	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	B10	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.07	0.07	71.43	71.43	0.03	0.03
Boise St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
California	P12	0.07	0.07	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
UCF	Amer	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Southern	SB	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Horz	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
UTSA	CUSA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
VMI	SC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Butler	BE	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Houston	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
NJIT	ASun	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Temple	Amer	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
VCU	A10	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Fresno St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Nevada	MWC	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Portland St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
San Jose St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	10.34	10.34	-0.04	-0.04
UNLV	MWC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
USC	P12	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	Amer	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.02	0.02	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.02	0.02	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.02	0.02	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.02	0.02	44.12	44.12	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
BYU	WCC	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Denver	Sum	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Montana	BSky	0.02	0.02	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Oregon	P12	0.02	0.02	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Pacific	WCC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Xavier	BE	0.02	0.02	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.02	0.02	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01