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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Northeastern

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:136.0
Current RPI:136
Expected SOS:119
Current SOS:119
Current Record:15-16
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-4
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:51
Expected OOC SOS:86



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-16136.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northeastern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Boston University (187.0)PatH87-77W100%0.0
11-14Connecticut (118.0)AmerA61-64W100%0.0
11-18Boston University (187.0)PatA65-63L0%0.0
11-19LIU Brooklyn (224.0)NECN78-74L0%0.0
11-20Maine (322.0)AEN80-72W100%0.0
11-27Kent St. (142.0)MACH73-70W100%0.0
11-30Cornell (270.0)IvyA80-77L0%0.0
12-3Stony Brook (176.0)AEA77-75L0%0.0
12-6Harvard (143.0)IvyA86-80L0%0.0
12-10Vermont (46.0)AEA57-59W100%0.0
12-18Michigan St. (51.0)B10A73-81W100%0.0
12-20Oakland (109.0)HorzA59-61W100%0.0
12-31William & Mary (110.0)CAAH84-64W100%0.0
1-2Drexel (308.0)CAAA70-75W100%0.0
1-5Delaware (235.0)CAAH90-54W100%0.0
1-7James Madison (255.0)CAAH64-54W100%0.0
1-12Drexel (308.0)CAAH92-75W100%0.0
1-14Towson (88.0)CAAA74-67L0%0.0
1-19Delaware (235.0)CAAA69-62L0%0.0
1-21Hofstra (196.0)CAAA78-73L0%0.0
1-26Elon (161.0)CAAH49-51L0%0.0
1-28Towson (88.0)CAAH69-62W100%0.0
2-2William & Mary (110.0)CAAA94-69L0%0.0
2-4James Madison (255.0)CAAA73-69L0%0.0
2-9College of Charleston (64.0)CAAA72-73W100%0.0
2-11Hofstra (196.0)CAAH64-74L0%0.0
2-16UNC Wilmington (27.0)CAAH65-66L0%0.0
2-18College of Charleston (64.0)CAAH71-85L0%0.0
2-23Elon (161.0)CAAA104-105W100%0.0
2-25UNC Wilmington (27.0)CAAA74-65L0%0.0
3-4Towson (88.0)CAAN82-54L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northeastern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northeastern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northeastern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NortheasternCAA26.4226.4252.4552.451.291.29
TowsonCAA5.745.7458.6258.620.990.99
College of CharlestonCAA4.294.2974.1974.192.072.07
UNC WilmingtonCAA4.264.2683.3383.332.842.84
James MadisonCAA4.214.2126.6726.67-1.96-1.96
HofstraCAA4.214.2141.3841.38-0.73-0.73
DelawareCAA4.214.2134.4834.48-1.31-1.31
William & MaryCAA4.204.2051.8551.850.160.16
ElonCAA4.164.1653.5753.570.300.30
DrexelCAA4.154.1527.5927.59-1.86-1.86
Boston UniversityPat3.303.3055.1755.170.340.34
Stony BrookAE1.841.8456.6756.670.250.25
VermontAE1.831.8387.5087.501.371.37
MaineAE1.821.8220.0020.00-1.09-1.09
HarvardIvy1.691.6960.0060.000.340.34
LIU BrooklynNEC1.691.6960.0060.000.340.34
CornellIvy1.671.6722.2222.22-0.93-0.93
ConnecticutAmer1.661.6648.3948.39-0.05-0.05
Michigan St.B101.641.6459.3859.380.310.31
OaklandHorz1.641.6475.8675.860.850.85
Kent St.MAC1.611.6163.6463.640.440.44
Loyola MDPat0.280.2846.6746.67-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.280.2857.1457.140.040.04
UMass LowellAE0.260.2633.3333.33-0.09-0.09
AlbanyAE0.230.2360.6160.610.050.05
HartfordAE0.230.2328.1228.12-0.10-0.10
New HampshireAE0.230.2358.6258.620.040.04
YaleIvy0.230.2360.7160.710.050.05
ColumbiaIvy0.220.2238.4638.46-0.05-0.05
BinghamtonAE0.210.2131.0331.03-0.08-0.08
DartmouthIvy0.200.2025.9325.93-0.09-0.09
LafayettePat0.180.1827.5927.59-0.08-0.08
LehighPat0.180.1861.2961.290.040.04
Old DominionCUSA0.180.1861.2961.290.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.180.1823.3323.33-0.10-0.10
Robert MorrisNEC0.180.1842.4242.42-0.03-0.03
BrownIvy0.170.1739.2939.29-0.04-0.04
PennIvy0.170.1746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.160.1667.7467.740.060.06
DukeACC0.160.1677.1477.140.090.09
NavyPat0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.150.1545.4545.45-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.130.1329.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Boston CollegeACC0.130.1328.1228.12-0.06-0.06
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
IonaMAAC0.130.1364.7164.710.040.04
MarylandB100.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
PrincetonIvy0.120.1278.5778.570.070.07
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
SienaMAAC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
ArmyPat0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
BucknellPat0.100.1076.4776.470.060.06
La SalleA100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.100.1082.3582.350.070.07
QuinnipiacMAAC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
RutgersB100.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.100.1030.3030.30-0.04-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
MinnesotaB100.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
UCFAmer0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
ToledoMAC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
BryantNEC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
GeorgetownBE0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
WagnerNEC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
KentuckySEC0.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
MaristMAAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.080.0814.2914.29-0.05-0.05
South DakotaSum0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
AkronMAC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
OhioMAC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
LibertyBSth0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Green BayHorz0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0529.4129.41-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Montana St.BSky0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
TempleAmer0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
NJITASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
LSUSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
NebraskaB100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
The CitadelSC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.030.0358.8258.820.010.01
USCP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
OregonP120.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
TulaneAmer0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
BaylorB120.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
ButlerBE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
IllinoisB100.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
IndianaB100.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
IowaB100.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
NorthwesternB100.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
WisconsinB100.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01