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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Northeastern

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:79.5
Current RPI:78
Expected SOS:113
Current SOS:119
Current Record:12-7
Expected Record:18-11
Current Conf Record:6-2
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:66
Expected OOC SOS:36



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-741.00.85%
21-849.25.22%
20-958.415.71%
19-1068.825.46%
18-1181.825.39%
17-1297.317.04%
16-13115.77.70%
15-14134.92.15%
14-15154.00.44%
13-16170.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northeastern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Boston University (199.1)PatA59-65W100%0.0
11-17Stanford (89.2)P12A73-59L0%0.0
11-19Ohio St. (21.1)B10A80-55L0%0.0
11-24Utah St. (167.9)MWCN67-71L0%0.0
11-25Furman (87.9)SCN67-78L0%0.0
11-30Harvard (178.0)IvyH77-61W100%0.0
12-2Cornell (280.4)IvyH84-66W100%0.0
12-5Bucknell (85.1)PatH82-64W100%0.0
12-9Vermont (55.0)AEH71-67W100%0.0
12-18Kent St. (185.1)MACA69-81W100%0.0
12-20St. Bonaventure (49.7)A10A84-65L0%0.0
12-30James Madison (278.3)CAAA70-81W100%0.0
1-2Hofstra (105.8)CAAH70-71L0%0.0
1-5Elon (143.4)CAAH72-60W100%0.0
1-7James Madison (278.3)CAAH80-67W100%0.0
1-11College of Charleston (108.4)CAAA82-66L0%0.0
1-13UNC Wilmington (261.9)CAAA77-81W100%0.0
1-18William & Mary (95.1)CAAA70-90W100%0.0
1-20Delaware (224.8)CAAH76-64W100%0.0
1-25Hofstra (105.8)CAAA0-045%-1.5
1-27Drexel (271.0)CAAA0-071%6.2
2-1College of Charleston (108.4)CAAH0-063%3.7
2-3UNC Wilmington (261.9)CAAH0-085%11.3
2-8Delaware (224.8)CAAA0-067%5.0
2-10Towson (90.1)CAAA0-033%-4.8
2-15Drexel (271.0)CAAH0-087%12.6
2-17William & Mary (95.1)CAAH0-072%6.5
2-22Towson (90.1)CAAH0-056%1.6
2-24Elon (143.4)CAAA0-055%1.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northeastern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northeastern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northeastern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NortheasternCAA26.4826.4065.8865.358.418.11
ElonCAA3.204.4755.5653.190.360.28
DelawareCAA3.224.4450.0044.990.00-0.45
UNC WilmingtonCAA2.994.4323.5328.84-1.58-1.88
William & MaryCAA3.174.4368.7563.671.191.21
DrexelCAA0.564.4130.0031.71-0.23-1.61
James MadisonCAA5.634.4127.7830.25-2.50-1.74
HofstraCAA3.054.4155.5658.140.340.72
TowsonCAA0.514.4163.1666.740.131.48
College of CharlestonCAA2.914.4064.7165.420.861.36
Boston UniversityPat2.851.8752.9455.240.170.20
HarvardIvy2.771.8540.0048.42-0.55-0.06
CornellIvy2.701.8535.7134.56-0.77-0.57
FurmanSC2.771.8564.7167.420.820.64
Ohio St.B102.771.8280.0075.741.660.93
BucknellPat2.771.8165.0070.280.830.74
VermontAE2.851.8178.9580.541.651.11
St. BonaventureA102.701.7564.7167.650.790.62
StanfordP122.691.7552.6348.720.14-0.04
Kent St.MAC2.631.7247.0646.47-0.15-0.12
Utah St.MWC2.631.7242.1143.61-0.42-0.22
YaleIvy0.210.2441.1847.56-0.04-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.210.2468.7567.600.080.08
Loyola MDPat0.140.2322.2228.66-0.08-0.10
LafayettePat0.150.2122.2227.47-0.08-0.09
SienaMAAC0.340.2128.5729.94-0.15-0.08
RichmondA100.330.2031.5834.36-0.12-0.06
PennIvy0.090.1964.7162.720.030.05
Old DominionCUSA0.210.1878.9576.750.120.10
ArmyPat0.210.1861.1160.440.050.04
NavyPat0.140.1860.0055.160.030.02
La SalleA100.060.1740.0042.69-0.01-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.230.1621.4326.35-0.13-0.07
ColgatePat0.220.1550.0051.030.000.00
George MasonA100.210.1545.0041.30-0.02-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.150.1550.0050.860.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.220.1526.3230.49-0.10-0.06
New HampshireAE0.280.1533.3340.08-0.09-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.140.1572.2274.930.060.07
RadfordBSth0.260.1457.8958.850.040.03
Stony BrookAE0.200.1436.8445.21-0.05-0.01
The CitadelSC0.270.1418.7518.36-0.17-0.09
BrownIvy0.000.1350.0045.140.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.090.1320.0032.25-0.05-0.05
PrincetonIvy0.090.1352.9460.220.010.03
High PointBSth0.150.1343.7549.23-0.02-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.230.1233.3333.87-0.08-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.070.1238.8935.37-0.02-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.200.1223.5325.64-0.11-0.06
DavidsonA100.150.1258.8261.450.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.150.1283.3381.430.100.07
ValparaisoMVC0.210.1247.3748.77-0.01-0.00
AmericanPat0.140.1226.3228.11-0.06-0.05
LehighPat0.140.1238.8944.75-0.03-0.01
AlbanyAE0.150.1271.4370.240.060.05
FIUCUSA0.200.1235.2935.54-0.06-0.03
MercerSC0.070.1244.4454.86-0.010.01
RiderMAAC0.070.1265.0065.320.020.04
UMBCAE0.070.1255.5655.540.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.220.1250.0051.640.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.1158.8249.760.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.160.0989.4777.000.120.05
LongwoodBSth0.160.0916.6716.16-0.10-0.06
TCUB120.150.0973.6865.600.070.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.150.0927.7831.71-0.06-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.090.0942.1139.94-0.01-0.02
DuquesneA100.090.0970.0058.090.040.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.140.0927.7838.14-0.06-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.150.0978.9574.190.080.04
WoffordSC0.160.0968.7563.690.060.02
Cal PolyBW0.140.0923.5328.21-0.07-0.04
DukeACC0.140.0989.4785.210.110.06
MaineAE0.140.0910.5314.83-0.11-0.06
BradleyMVC0.140.0965.0057.880.040.01
CanisiusMAAC0.140.0961.9063.140.030.02
DaytonA100.140.0947.3750.94-0.010.00
ClemsonACC0.130.0984.2173.240.090.04
MonmouthMAAC0.130.0927.7841.03-0.06-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.200.0966.6773.210.070.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0935.0031.83-0.02-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.200.0956.2557.400.020.01
Appalachian St.SB0.190.0933.3337.23-0.06-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.060.0961.1158.700.010.01
FloridaSEC0.200.0973.6871.560.090.04
Miami OHMAC0.140.0947.0641.41-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0957.1460.410.010.02
MarylandB100.200.0870.0065.250.080.03
North CarolinaACC0.190.0880.0075.060.110.04
HamptonMEAC0.080.0620.0041.73-0.05-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.080.0668.4263.650.030.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0627.7834.50-0.03-0.02
UCFAmer0.080.0668.4260.860.030.01
NiagaraMAAC0.160.0657.1453.050.020.00
SyracuseACC0.160.0668.4261.230.060.01
ToledoMAC0.160.0666.6767.700.050.02
CampbellBSth0.070.0647.0647.41-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0642.1132.47-0.01-0.02
HowardMEAC0.070.0610.5327.29-0.06-0.03
LSUSEC0.070.0661.1153.170.020.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0644.4450.31-0.010.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0643.7549.13-0.01-0.00
Wichita St.Amer0.070.0678.9577.380.040.03
FordhamA100.160.0631.5829.06-0.06-0.02
George WashingtonA100.080.0645.0043.48-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.150.0673.6867.970.070.02
MassachusettsA100.160.0650.0046.810.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0629.4133.20-0.03-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0622.2228.59-0.04-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.060.009.09-0.07-0.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0677.7879.150.040.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0637.5037.680.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0666.6765.370.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0644.4446.02-0.01-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0616.6724.91-0.05-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0645.0047.07-0.01-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0629.4139.630.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.070.0663.1661.020.020.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0661.9065.160.000.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0640.0030.870.00-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0642.1146.09-0.01-0.00
SamfordSC0.070.0627.7832.66-0.03-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.070.0635.0026.12-0.02-0.03
VillanovaBE0.070.0694.7490.310.060.05
VMISC0.070.0625.0024.15-0.04-0.03
MinnesotaB100.140.0663.6457.630.040.01
ButlerBE0.140.0666.6763.070.050.02
AkronMAC0.000.0647.0644.910.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.070.0678.9576.990.040.03
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0662.5058.690.020.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0655.0048.980.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0666.6763.420.020.02
HartfordAE0.070.0650.0045.930.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0678.9572.990.000.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.060.0010.67-0.14-0.05
NevadaMWC0.070.0685.7182.090.050.04
New MexicoMWC0.000.0645.0048.560.00-0.00
NJITASun0.000.0638.8942.610.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.070.0647.0648.41-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0647.3746.920.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0611.7612.81-0.05-0.04
TempleAmer0.000.0652.6351.740.000.00
UNLVMWC0.070.0673.6865.260.030.02
UTSACUSA0.130.0641.1839.65-0.02-0.01
WyomingMWC0.070.0661.1156.830.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.140.0621.0523.51-0.08-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.0637.5031.760.00-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.130.0680.9583.260.080.04
Oregon St.P120.070.0657.8950.840.010.00
Portland St.BSky0.130.0658.8263.210.020.01
UtahP120.070.0663.1659.710.020.01
VCUA100.060.0660.0059.700.010.01
ArizonaP120.070.0680.0078.940.040.03
Arizona St.P120.070.0678.9576.130.040.03
CaliforniaP120.070.0636.8431.12-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.000.0657.8950.710.000.00
IowaB100.060.0647.6244.02-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.060.0676.1970.740.030.02
Penn St.B100.000.0661.9055.760.000.01
RutgersB100.060.0655.0046.690.01-0.00
UCLAP120.070.0665.0062.050.020.01
USCP120.070.0671.4368.280.030.02
WashingtonP120.070.0670.0061.440.030.01
Washington St.P120.070.0647.3741.44-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0350.0052.460.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0356.2556.830.010.00
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0352.6347.390.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.070.0377.7870.480.040.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0390.4888.960.070.02
TennesseeSEC0.070.0372.2268.930.030.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0357.8953.190.010.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0352.6358.590.000.01
WinthropBSth0.070.0350.0059.450.000.01
BYUWCC0.070.0380.9576.240.040.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0320.0023.34-0.04-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0345.0041.33-0.01-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0346.6746.970.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0338.8943.43-0.02-0.00
MarquetteBE0.070.0368.4260.550.020.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0315.7920.91-0.05-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.070.0350.0047.660.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0318.7536.82-0.05-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0341.1839.16-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0358.8262.820.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0352.9455.030.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.070.0330.0039.93-0.03-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0352.9452.230.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.070.0368.4269.250.030.01
XavierBE0.070.0385.7180.080.050.02
ArkansasSEC0.060.0368.4264.200.020.01
ColoradoP120.000.0360.0053.720.000.00
DenverSum0.070.0333.3336.48-0.02-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0338.8946.05-0.01-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0347.3744.270.00-0.00
KansasB120.070.0384.2179.750.050.02
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0340.0043.35-0.01-0.00
Michigan St.B100.060.0385.0083.200.040.02
MontanaBSky0.070.0370.5973.150.030.01
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6759.820.000.01
NorthwesternB100.060.0355.0050.330.010.00
OregonP120.000.0365.0063.850.000.01
PacificWCC0.070.0345.0044.47-0.01-0.00
PurdueB100.000.0390.4888.370.000.02
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0350.0048.730.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0321.0544.26-0.04-0.00
WisconsinB100.060.0350.0046.300.00-0.00