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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Northeastern

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:167.3
Current RPI:176
Expected SOS:164
Current SOS:257
Current Record:4-3
Expected Record:14-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-5
Current OOC Record:4-3
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:149
Expected OOC SOS:192



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-747.50.02%
22-857.00.04%
21-965.40.22%
20-1078.40.80%
19-1187.41.93%
18-12104.75.15%
17-13119.88.82%
16-14137.014.19%
15-15154.417.57%
14-16173.917.76%
13-17194.114.68%
12-18213.69.91%
11-19233.45.55%
10-20253.52.26%
9-21270.90.75%
8-22285.80.25%
7-23305.20.08%
6-24317.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northeastern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Boston University (172.4)PatH87-77W100%0.0
11-14Connecticut (143.2)AmerA61-64W100%0.0
11-18Boston University (172.4)PatA65-63L0%0.0
11-19LIU Brooklyn (214.2)NECN78-74L0%0.0
11-20Maine (310.8)AEH80-72W100%0.0
11-27Kent St. (205.9)MACH73-70W100%0.0
11-30Cornell (260.9)IvyA80-77L0%0.0
12-3Stony Brook (298.6)AEA0-065%4.5
12-6Harvard (224.3)IvyA0-039%-3.3
12-10Vermont (91.3)AEA0-025%-8.1
12-18Michigan St. (41.5)B10A0-06%-18.2
12-20Oakland (89.5)HorzA0-016%-11.9
12-31William & Mary (121.0)CAAH0-051%0.2
1-2Drexel (245.8)CAAA0-054%1.2
1-5Delaware (225.1)CAAH0-069%6.0
1-7James Madison (268.0)CAAH0-074%7.7
1-12Drexel (245.8)CAAH0-073%7.4
1-14Towson (160.8)CAAA0-034%-4.9
1-19Delaware (225.1)CAAA0-049%-0.2
1-21Hofstra (237.3)CAAA0-053%1.1
1-26Elon (136.0)CAAH0-055%1.6
1-28Towson (160.8)CAAH0-054%1.3
2-2William & Mary (121.0)CAAA0-031%-6.0
2-4James Madison (268.0)CAAA0-055%1.5
2-9College of Charleston (141.6)CAAA0-034%-5.0
2-11Hofstra (237.3)CAAH0-073%7.2
2-16UNC Wilmington (50.6)CAAH0-031%-5.8
2-18College of Charleston (141.6)CAAH0-054%1.1
2-23Elon (136.0)CAAA0-035%-4.6
2-25UNC Wilmington (50.6)CAAA0-016%-12.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northeastern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northeastern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northeastern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NortheasternCAA30.2726.4259.2651.805.610.95
HofstraCAA0.004.3057.1440.810.00-0.79
TowsonCAA0.004.2750.0054.410.000.38
College of CharlestonCAA0.004.2462.5056.520.000.55
DrexelCAA0.004.2442.8636.86-0.00-1.12
James MadisonCAA0.004.240.0027.62-0.00-1.90
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.004.2483.3377.230.002.31
DelawareCAA0.004.2440.0040.63-0.00-0.79
ElonCAA0.004.2483.3358.260.000.70
William & MaryCAA0.004.2340.0055.13-0.000.43
Boston UniversityPat16.073.4250.0053.790.000.26
Stony BrookAE0.001.8916.6733.77-0.00-0.61
VermontAE0.001.8762.5071.510.000.80
MaineAE8.931.8620.0026.49-5.36-0.88
HarvardIvy0.001.760.0042.30-0.00-0.27
LIU BrooklynNEC8.931.7580.0056.545.360.23
CornellIvy7.141.7316.6727.96-4.76-0.76
ConnecticutAmer8.331.7240.0040.14-1.67-0.34
Michigan St.B100.001.7050.0060.530.000.36
OaklandHorz0.001.6983.3378.230.000.96
Kent St.MAC7.141.6760.0053.601.430.12
UMass LowellAE0.600.2825.0040.81-0.30-0.05
UMBCAE0.000.2880.0055.340.000.03
HartfordAE0.600.2512.5022.55-0.45-0.14
ColumbiaIvy0.000.2442.8642.47-0.00-0.04
Loyola MDPat0.600.2333.3340.49-0.20-0.04
New HampshireAE0.000.2350.0057.480.000.03
YaleIvy0.000.2133.3364.14-0.000.06
DartmouthIvy0.000.210.0023.47-0.00-0.11
LafayettePat0.510.2033.3331.87-0.17-0.07
AlbanyAE0.000.2050.0060.380.000.04
BinghamtonAE0.510.2042.8640.94-0.07-0.04
BrownIvy0.000.1850.0042.420.00-0.03
PennIvy0.000.1840.0057.97-0.000.03
Holy CrossPat0.000.1842.8647.69-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.1787.5078.680.000.10
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1766.6765.810.000.05
South FloridaAmer0.000.1766.6732.240.00-0.06
NavyPat0.000.1728.5743.62-0.00-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1775.0047.510.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1716.6736.45-0.00-0.05
HoustonAmer0.510.1583.3376.370.340.08
ColgatePat0.510.1520.0041.31-0.31-0.03
LehighPat0.000.1433.3367.01-0.000.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1425.0039.28-0.00-0.03
George MasonA100.600.1457.1442.940.09-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.1325.0063.95-0.000.04
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1250.0027.250.00-0.05
SyracuseACC0.000.1266.6770.140.000.05
AmericanPat0.000.1116.6735.65-0.00-0.03
ArmyPat0.000.1133.3345.58-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.1175.0067.660.000.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1150.0050.290.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.1150.0052.140.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC1.190.1160.0052.760.240.01
SienaMAAC0.510.1128.5750.51-0.220.00
BradleyMVC0.000.1150.0029.280.00-0.05
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1166.6751.090.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.1160.0070.140.000.05
La SalleA100.000.1160.0051.780.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.1150.0033.010.00-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1142.8645.30-0.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.1133.3336.31-0.00-0.03
UCFAmer0.000.1183.3374.620.000.06
MarylandB100.000.1185.7156.490.000.01
RutgersB100.000.1183.3344.770.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1120.0034.22-0.00-0.04
High PointBSth0.000.1150.0051.260.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1116.6727.03-0.00-0.05
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.1116.6734.31-0.00-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1142.8638.05-0.00-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.1166.6770.740.000.05
ToledoMAC0.000.1142.8650.36-0.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.090.0034.18-0.00-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0966.6756.360.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0928.5750.20-0.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.510.0971.4371.570.220.04
GeorgetownBE0.000.0950.0047.560.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.600.0916.6730.27-0.40-0.03
MaristMAAC0.000.0942.8635.68-0.00-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0971.4355.750.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0842.8637.60-0.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0833.3343.64-0.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0875.0070.470.000.03
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0840.0043.86-0.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.600.0833.3353.85-0.200.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0840.0050.91-0.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.600.0840.0037.65-0.12-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.600.0825.0024.66-0.30-0.04
South DakotaSum0.600.0857.1447.220.09-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0885.7172.660.000.04
KentuckySEC0.000.08100.0086.250.000.06
MinnesotaB100.000.0885.7165.670.000.03
LibertyBSth0.000.0640.0050.71-0.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0685.7175.950.000.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0633.3327.13-0.00-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.0671.4370.330.000.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0024.19-0.00-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0640.0041.65-0.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0633.3335.92-0.00-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0633.3341.52-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0685.7180.960.000.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0616.6736.35-0.00-0.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0616.6733.69-0.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.000.0633.3348.71-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0685.7159.740.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3333.15-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0671.4350.570.000.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0671.4354.520.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0657.1469.300.000.02
TempleAmer0.000.0671.4363.570.000.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0650.0064.840.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0685.7174.430.000.03
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0019.51-0.00-0.04
NJITASun0.000.0642.8650.32-0.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0019.30-0.00-0.03
AkronMAC0.000.0683.3369.840.000.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0620.0036.00-0.00-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.0650.0058.980.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0033.54-0.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0666.6753.460.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0628.5739.44-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0018.22-0.00-0.04
DavidsonA100.000.0683.3368.880.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0683.3380.700.000.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0642.8646.78-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0650.0055.850.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0633.3340.39-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0620.0034.39-0.00-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0666.6761.340.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0671.4349.770.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0633.3338.19-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0685.7173.010.000.03
Montana St.BSky0.000.0650.0062.460.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6737.09-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0612.5048.98-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0640.0030.80-0.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0680.0068.320.000.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.0671.4356.280.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0685.7169.010.000.02
RichmondA100.000.0657.1448.600.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0047.990.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0650.0046.780.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0657.1467.020.000.02
The CitadelSC0.000.0640.0027.05-0.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.0633.3338.20-0.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0083.120.000.04
Wake ForestACC0.000.0671.4352.370.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0616.6718.96-0.00-0.03
WoffordSC0.600.060.0033.58-0.60-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0616.6729.36-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.600.050.0024.77-0.60-0.03
St. John'sBE0.000.0528.5733.92-0.00-0.02
MichiganB100.000.0571.4366.530.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.0550.0043.610.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0571.4374.450.000.03
FordhamA100.000.0357.1443.680.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0357.1444.160.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0038.26-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0383.3358.080.000.01
StanfordP120.000.0375.0059.100.000.01
TroySB0.000.0333.3332.23-0.00-0.01
USCP120.000.03100.0075.380.000.02
WyomingMWC0.000.0360.0048.590.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0383.3355.200.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0017.30-0.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6754.380.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.600.0333.3345.60-0.20-0.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0314.2931.71-0.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.600.0383.3356.560.400.00
OregonP120.600.0371.4366.730.260.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0023.26-0.00-0.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0314.2926.81-0.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0360.0039.200.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0357.1448.410.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0350.0052.330.000.00
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0075.690.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0328.5734.18-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.030.0037.92-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0366.6775.370.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0328.5723.76-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0080.780.000.02
TexasB120.000.0350.0036.240.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.600.0385.7162.920.430.01
ArizonaP120.000.0385.7170.990.000.01
BaylorB120.000.03100.0074.460.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0350.0071.330.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.0357.1442.660.00-0.00
IndianaB100.000.0383.3375.060.000.01
IowaB100.000.0342.8644.33-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0371.4366.220.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0362.5043.960.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0314.2928.66-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0371.4386.030.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.0375.0073.840.000.01