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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Northeastern

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:86.0
Current RPI:86
Expected SOS:180
Current SOS:180
Current Record:23-11
Expected Record:23-11
Current Conf Record:15-6
Expected Conf Record:15-6
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-4
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:86
Expected OOC SOS:158



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-1186.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northeastern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Boston University (198.0)PatN65-71W100%0.0
11-18Florida St. (110.0)ACCA73-76W100%0.0
11-22Navy (252.0)PatN68-44W100%0.0
11-23Manhattan (168.0)MAACN65-51W100%0.0
11-26Massachusetts (80.0)A10A79-54L0%0.0
11-29Fairfield (299.0)MAACH57-48W100%0.0
12-3Harvard (52.0)IvyA60-46L0%0.0
12-6Western Michigan (119.0)MACH81-69W100%0.0
12-17Cal Poly (199.0)BWN60-58L0%0.0
12-20Santa Clara (202.0)WCCA72-78W100%0.0
12-22Saint Mary's (68.0)WCCA72-68L0%0.0
12-31Richmond (56.0)A10A57-58W100%0.0
1-3Delaware (253.0)CAAA53-72W100%0.0
1-5UNC Wilmington (145.0)CAAH68-75L0%0.0
1-8James Madison (148.0)CAAA59-65W100%0.0
1-10Towson (281.0)CAAA49-52W100%0.0
1-14Hofstra (174.0)CAAH91-83W100%0.0
1-17College of Charleston (298.0)CAAH69-67W100%0.0
1-19Detroit (205.0)HorzH69-81L0%0.0
1-22James Madison (148.0)CAAH82-59W100%0.0
1-24William & Mary (93.0)CAAA78-62L0%0.0
1-28Drexel (243.0)CAAA65-60L0%0.0
1-31Elon (259.0)CAAH80-61W100%0.0
2-4Towson (281.0)CAAH69-62W100%0.0
2-7Delaware (253.0)CAAH68-73L0%0.0
2-12Hofstra (174.0)CAAA68-79W100%0.0
2-14UNC Wilmington (145.0)CAAA66-61L0%0.0
2-18William & Mary (93.0)CAAH75-64W100%0.0
2-21Drexel (243.0)CAAH83-73W100%0.0
2-26Elon (259.0)CAAA72-65L0%0.0
2-28College of Charleston (298.0)CAAA56-65W100%0.0
3-7Delaware (253.0)CAAN67-64W100%0.0
3-8UNC Wilmington (145.0)CAAN71-78W100%0.0
3-9William & Mary (93.0)CAAN61-72W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northeastern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northeastern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northeastern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NortheasternCAA26.5426.5470.6270.6210.9510.95
William & MaryCAA5.385.3862.9662.961.401.40
UNC WilmingtonCAA5.315.3155.5655.560.590.59
DelawareCAA5.295.2933.3333.33-1.76-1.76
College of CharlestonCAA3.983.9829.0329.03-1.67-1.67
HofstraCAA3.973.9764.5264.521.151.15
ElonCAA3.973.9741.3841.38-0.68-0.68
TowsonCAA3.923.9237.9337.93-0.95-0.95
James MadisonCAA3.923.9263.3363.331.051.05
DrexelCAA3.893.8937.0437.04-1.01-1.01
RichmondA101.611.6161.2961.290.360.36
Cal PolyBW1.591.5938.4638.46-0.37-0.37
NavyPat1.571.5740.0040.00-0.31-0.31
MassachusettsA101.571.5751.6151.610.050.05
ManhattanMAAC1.561.5661.2961.290.350.35
Santa ClaraWCC1.551.5541.3841.38-0.27-0.27
Saint Mary'sWCC1.551.5567.8667.860.550.55
Boston UniversityPat1.551.5542.8642.86-0.22-0.22
HarvardIvy1.521.5273.0873.080.700.70
FairfieldMAAC1.521.5223.3323.33-0.81-0.81
Florida St.ACC1.521.5253.1253.120.090.09
DetroitHorz1.471.4740.0040.00-0.29-0.29
Western MichiganMAC1.471.4760.0060.000.290.29
La SalleA100.230.2351.5251.520.010.01
ArmyPat0.200.2048.2848.28-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.190.1976.4776.470.100.10
DavidsonA100.190.1976.6776.670.100.10
Old DominionCUSA0.170.1777.4277.420.090.09
ColgatePat0.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.170.1747.0647.06-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.170.1758.0658.060.030.03
CampbellBSth0.160.1624.1424.14-0.08-0.08
MaristMAAC0.160.1621.8821.88-0.09-0.09
BYUWCC0.150.1571.8871.880.060.06
San DiegoWCC0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.150.1514.2914.29-0.11-0.11
Morgan St.MEAC0.140.1422.5822.58-0.08-0.08
High PointBSth0.140.1467.8667.860.050.05
MonmouthMAAC0.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
Miami FLACC0.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
George MasonA100.140.1426.6726.67-0.06-0.06
GonzagaWCC0.130.1393.9493.940.110.11
San FranciscoWCC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.120.1223.3323.33-0.07-0.07
LafayettePat0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
PacificWCC0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
BucknellPat0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
OhioMAC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
TempleAmer0.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
RiderMAAC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
VirginiaACC0.120.1290.6290.620.100.10
Rhode IslandA100.120.1270.0070.000.050.05
CanisiusMAAC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
SienaMAAC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.120.1216.1316.13-0.08-0.08
CornellIvy0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.100.1044.4444.44-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
LehighPat0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
VMISC0.100.1032.1432.14-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.100.1081.2581.250.060.06
HowardMEAC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
North CarolinaACC0.100.1068.5768.570.040.04
DukeACC0.090.0987.8887.880.070.07
Ball St.MAC0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0983.3383.330.060.06
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
FordhamA100.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
VCUA100.090.0974.2974.290.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
The CitadelSC0.090.0929.6329.63-0.04-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
YaleIvy0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
UC IrvineBW0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0725.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
RiceCUSA0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
StanfordP120.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
VillanovaBE0.070.0794.1294.120.060.06
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0723.0823.08-0.04-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
DaytonA100.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
AkronMAC0.070.0758.8258.820.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
North FloridaASun0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Notre DameACC0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
ProvidenceBE0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
George WashingtonA100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
RadfordBSth0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
LSUSEC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
PittsburghACC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
ClemsonACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
BrownIvy0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
UC DavisBW0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
UC RiversideBW0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
ColoradoP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
USCP120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
AlabamaSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.040.0441.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.040.0458.8258.820.010.01
FurmanSC0.040.0429.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.040.0453.3353.330.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.040.0434.3834.38-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.040.0424.1424.14-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.040.0440.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.040.0429.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.040.0464.5264.520.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.040.0431.0331.03-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.040.0471.8871.880.020.02
BryantNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
CaliforniaP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Washington St.P120.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
DrakeMVC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
MichiganB100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
OregonP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0272.4172.410.010.01
South DakotaSum0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0287.1087.100.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
IUPUISum0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0290.9190.910.020.02
RutgersB100.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00