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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Northeastern

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:222.0
Current RPI:222
Expected SOS:120
Current SOS:120
Current Record:11-21
Expected Record:11-21
Current Conf Record:8-10
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-5
Current OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC RPI:236
Expected OOC SOS:58



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-21222.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northeastern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Boston University (84.0)PatN72-69L0%0.0
11-13Stony Brook (165.0)AEA73-66L0%0.0
11-16Central Connecticut (293.0)NECH83-69W100%0.0
11-21Georgetown (69.0)BEN56-63W100%0.0
11-22Charlotte (151.0)CUSAN77-86L0%0.0
11-24Florida St. (54.0)ACCN62-60L0%0.0
11-29VCU (13.0)A10A79-66L0%0.0
12-4Harvard (46.0)IvyH64-72L0%0.0
12-7UAB (152.0)CUSAH69-74L0%0.0
12-15Fairfield (289.0)MAACA64-60L0%0.0
12-21Milwaukee (131.0)HorzN62-59W100%0.0
12-22Tulane (223.0)CUSAA65-62L0%0.0
12-31Richmond (75.0)A10H66-70L0%0.0
1-4Vanderbilt (120.0)SECA79-49L0%0.0
1-8UNC Wilmington (281.0)CAAH79-68W100%0.0
1-11Drexel (132.0)CAAA93-88L0%0.0
1-13College of Charleston (242.0)CAAH49-58L0%0.0
1-15James Madison (233.0)CAAA52-56W100%0.0
1-18Delaware (65.0)CAAH70-74L0%0.0
1-22Towson (95.0)CAAA54-57W100%0.0
1-25Hofstra (277.0)CAAA57-70W100%0.0
1-29James Madison (233.0)CAAH46-49L0%0.0
2-3Delaware (65.0)CAAA80-67L0%0.0
2-5Hofstra (277.0)CAAH81-73W100%0.0
2-8William & Mary (119.0)CAAH70-82L0%0.0
2-13UNC Wilmington (281.0)CAAA55-45L0%0.0
2-15College of Charleston (242.0)CAAA44-60W100%0.0
2-20Towson (95.0)CAAH70-79L0%0.0
2-22William & Mary (119.0)CAAA81-67L0%0.0
3-1Drexel (132.0)CAAH54-52W100%0.0
3-8Drexel (132.0)CAAN81-90W100%0.0
3-9Delaware (65.0)CAAN87-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northeastern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northeastern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northeastern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NortheasternCAA26.3926.3934.8134.81-8.02-8.02
DelawareCAA5.575.5770.9770.972.332.33
DrexelCAA5.435.4355.5655.560.600.60
HofstraCAA4.124.1232.2632.26-1.46-1.46
William & MaryCAA4.114.1158.6258.620.710.71
TowsonCAA4.024.0268.9768.971.531.53
James MadisonCAA4.024.0234.4834.48-1.25-1.25
College of CharlestonCAA4.004.0041.3841.38-0.69-0.69
UNC WilmingtonCAA3.963.9621.4321.43-2.27-2.27
RichmondA101.871.8756.2556.250.230.23
CharlotteCUSA1.721.7253.3353.330.110.11
VCUA101.711.7175.7675.760.880.88
TulaneCUSA1.661.6648.3948.39-0.05-0.05
UABCUSA1.641.6453.5753.570.120.12
MilwaukeeHorz1.611.6162.5062.500.400.40
Florida St.ACC1.611.6158.0658.060.260.26
Central ConnecticutNEC1.611.6135.7135.71-0.46-0.46
Boston UniversityPat1.591.5969.7069.700.630.63
FairfieldMAAC1.591.5919.3519.35-0.97-0.97
GeorgetownBE1.591.5956.6756.670.210.21
HarvardIvy1.591.5985.7185.711.131.13
Stony BrookAE1.591.5967.7467.740.560.56
VanderbiltSEC1.561.5646.6746.67-0.10-0.10
Old DominionCUSA0.280.2848.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.210.2133.3333.33-0.07-0.07
Southern MissCUSA0.180.1880.6580.650.110.11
MarshallCUSA0.180.1829.0329.03-0.08-0.08
DavidsonSC0.180.1861.2961.290.040.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.170.1731.0331.03-0.07-0.07
HartfordAE0.170.1751.5251.520.010.01
LibertyBSth0.170.1727.5927.59-0.08-0.08
Saint Joseph'sA100.170.1772.7372.730.080.08
HamptonMEAC0.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
VillanovaBE0.170.1787.5087.500.130.13
George WashingtonA100.160.1675.0075.000.080.08
RutgersAmer0.160.1634.3834.38-0.05-0.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.150.1593.1093.100.130.13
BryantNEC0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.150.1578.1278.120.080.08
VirginiaACC0.150.1582.3582.350.090.09
DetroitHorz0.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
ArmyPat0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
East CarolinaCUSA0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
ElonSC0.130.1355.1755.170.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
HowardMEAC0.130.1319.3519.35-0.08-0.08
UNC AshevilleBSth0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
New HampshireAE0.130.1317.2417.24-0.08-0.08
High PointBSth0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.130.1316.1316.13-0.09-0.09
Cleveland St.Horz0.130.1363.3363.330.030.03
MaristMAAC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.120.1277.7877.780.070.07
LouisvilleAmer0.120.1285.2985.290.090.09
ValparaisoHorz0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
FordhamA100.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.120.1278.5778.570.070.07
BelmontOVC0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
RiceCUSA0.100.1017.8617.86-0.07-0.07
AlabamaSEC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
The CitadelSC0.100.1013.7913.79-0.07-0.07
ProvidenceBE0.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
DePaulBE0.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
UMBCAE0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
NJITind0.100.1036.0036.00-0.03-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
NavyPat0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
MarylandACC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
SienaMAAC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
ColgatePat0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.090.0980.6580.650.060.06
Loyola MDPat0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.080.0851.8551.850.000.00
WagnerNEC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
YaleIvy0.080.0851.8551.850.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
CornellIvy0.080.083.703.70-0.07-0.07
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
ArizonaP120.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
BuffaloMAC0.080.0864.2964.290.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
UCLAP120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
LSUSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
TempleAmer0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
UTSACUSA0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
RiderMAAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
ButlerBE0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
WinthropBSth0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
WoffordSC0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
FloridaSEC0.070.0794.1294.120.060.06
AlbanyAE0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
MaineAE0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Wake ForestACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
BucknellPat0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
DaytonA100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
DuquesneA100.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
LafayettePat0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0570.3770.370.020.02
CampbellBSth0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Western KentuckySB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
FurmanSC0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
Seton HallBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VMIBSth0.050.0555.5655.560.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
XavierBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
MichiganB100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
BinghamtonAE0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.2121.21-0.03-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
UICHorz0.050.0513.7913.79-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SC0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
DukeACC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
IndianaB100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
SyracuseACC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.020.0281.2581.250.020.02
UCFAmer0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01