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Through games of Feb 8, 2016.


Northeastern

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:148.7
Current RPI:144
Expected SOS:110
Current SOS:98
Current Record:11-13
Expected Record:14-16
Current Conf Record:4-8
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-3
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:100
Expected OOC SOS:145



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-13105.80.86%
16-14119.87.18%
15-15134.723.74%
14-16148.835.70%
13-17162.524.36%
12-18176.07.43%
11-19189.20.72%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northeastern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Boston University (192.6)PatA84-87W100%0.0
11-20Florida Atlantic (280.0)CUSAN60-58W100%0.0
11-21Lipscomb (273.8)ASunN67-79W100%0.0
11-22Miami OH (232.8)MACA67-61L0%0.0
11-27Miami FL (12.8)ACCA77-78W100%0.0
12-2Harvard (214.2)IvyH80-71W100%0.0
12-5Detroit (209.2)HorzA76-73L0%0.0
12-7Western Michigan (204.4)MACA87-86L0%0.0
12-12Stony Brook (45.5)AEH75-62W100%0.0
12-19Michigan St. (17.7)B10H58-78L0%0.0
12-22Vermont (161.8)AEH77-65W100%0.0
12-29North Carolina St. (116.4)ACCA72-66L0%0.0
12-31Elon (137.9)CAAA79-86W100%0.0
1-2UNC Wilmington (60.7)CAAA63-65W100%0.0
1-7Delaware (274.3)CAAH88-56W100%0.0
1-9William & Mary (40.6)CAAA78-60L0%0.0
1-14James Madison (82.6)CAAH63-75L0%0.0
1-16Delaware (274.3)CAAA60-69W100%0.0
1-21Hofstra (74.6)CAAH92-96L0%0.0
1-23Towson (154.8)CAAH72-79L0%0.0
1-28College of Charleston (94.7)CAAA68-61L0%0.0
1-30Elon (137.9)CAAH67-71L0%0.0
2-4William & Mary (40.6)CAAH77-86L0%0.0
2-6UNC Wilmington (60.7)CAAH73-90L0%0.0
2-11Towson (154.8)CAAA0-044%-1.5
2-13Drexel (265.3)CAAH0-084%11.0
2-18James Madison (82.6)CAAA0-022%-8.4
2-21Hofstra (74.6)CAAA0-027%-6.6
2-25College of Charleston (94.7)CAAH0-055%1.5
2-27Drexel (265.3)CAAA0-066%4.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northeastern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northeastern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northeastern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NortheasternCAA26.5026.4045.9747.98-2.14-1.06
HofstraCAA2.834.3363.6462.560.771.09
James MadisonCAA2.794.3169.5768.111.091.56
College of CharlestonCAA2.794.3061.9060.060.660.86
UNC WilmingtonCAA4.774.2978.9575.282.762.17
William & MaryCAA4.814.2968.4267.441.771.50
DelawareCAA4.884.2723.8125.05-2.56-2.13
ElonCAA4.734.2752.3850.450.230.04
TowsonCAA2.744.2763.6458.410.750.72
DrexelCAA0.754.2713.6417.62-0.55-2.77
Western MichiganMAC2.231.8130.0033.16-0.89-0.61
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.261.8123.8128.16-1.19-0.79
Stony BrookAE2.171.7885.7185.811.551.27
VermontAE2.181.7654.1756.760.180.24
North Carolina St.ACC2.231.7647.8347.39-0.10-0.09
Miami FLACC2.171.7585.7179.401.551.03
Miami OHMAC2.171.7528.5728.07-0.93-0.77
LipscombASun2.181.7226.0930.32-1.04-0.68
HarvardIvy2.171.7236.8439.91-0.57-0.35
Boston UniversityPat2.141.7056.5257.490.280.25
Michigan St.B102.131.7082.6182.461.391.10
DetroitHorz2.081.6745.0043.76-0.21-0.21
East CarolinaAmer0.240.2143.4842.00-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.140.2020.0020.45-0.08-0.12
Florida St.ACC0.230.2069.5764.850.090.06
UMBCAE0.130.1724.0026.33-0.07-0.08
BinghamtonAE0.220.1720.8324.10-0.13-0.09
Eastern MichiganMAC0.230.1736.8441.40-0.06-0.03
FIUCUSA0.180.1740.9145.29-0.03-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.230.1759.0958.870.040.03
Boston CollegeACC0.230.1730.4326.54-0.09-0.08
High PointBSth0.140.1555.0057.480.010.02
ColumbiaIvy0.190.1566.6765.220.060.05
Central MichiganMAC0.150.1550.0051.190.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.190.1572.2274.700.080.07
South CarolinaSEC0.090.1586.3679.140.060.08
AlbanyAE0.170.1576.0076.300.090.08
New HampshireAE0.130.1557.1453.980.020.01
UMass LowellAE0.220.1534.7835.64-0.07-0.04
VirginiaACC0.150.1482.6178.070.100.08
Bowling GreenMAC0.190.1452.3847.040.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.150.1459.0960.100.030.03
Loyola MDPat0.140.1434.7837.17-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.130.1450.0051.180.000.00
DukeACC0.220.1475.0071.700.110.06
CampbellBSth0.150.1228.5729.64-0.06-0.05
PennIvy0.050.1238.8937.62-0.01-0.03
HartfordAE0.140.1225.0026.76-0.07-0.05
MaineAE0.130.1233.3333.12-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.140.1250.0051.290.000.00
IonaMAAC0.090.1260.8760.760.020.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.1265.2266.170.030.04
NJITASun0.180.1254.1755.240.010.01
NavyPat0.130.1262.5062.390.030.03
BradleyMVC0.140.1112.5012.85-0.10-0.09
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.140.1150.0051.900.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.130.1121.7423.39-0.08-0.06
Sacred HeartNEC0.090.1134.7837.06-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.190.1134.7840.93-0.06-0.02
Notre DameACC0.090.1170.8367.730.040.04
Penn St.B100.040.1150.0046.710.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.140.1181.8280.030.090.07
Ball St.MAC0.150.1163.6459.220.040.02
George MasonA100.090.1134.7834.14-0.03-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.100.1163.6459.460.030.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.130.1140.0045.50-0.03-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.180.1120.0019.67-0.11-0.07
SyracuseACC0.140.1166.6762.580.050.03
MichiganB100.180.1169.5766.240.070.04
HowardMEAC0.150.0936.3638.93-0.04-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.150.0952.0050.240.010.00
LibertyBSth0.150.0934.7836.50-0.05-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0959.0959.640.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.150.0956.5262.790.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.150.0956.5260.010.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.140.0945.4546.27-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.150.0986.3682.380.110.06
Wright St.Horz0.150.0956.5257.000.020.01
OaklandHorz0.090.0968.0067.980.030.03
San DiegoWCC0.050.0931.8229.13-0.02-0.04
UCFAmer0.140.0952.3845.690.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.150.0931.5831.76-0.05-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0952.1754.150.000.01
YaleIvy0.040.0973.6874.680.020.04
AmericanPat0.090.0930.4331.91-0.04-0.03
LehighPat0.130.0936.3639.78-0.04-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0939.1341.12-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.090.0965.2260.250.030.02
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0950.0049.850.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.090.0976.1968.210.050.03
Holy CrossPat0.100.0939.1338.33-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0944.0045.27-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.130.0922.7324.79-0.07-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.0963.1658.810.030.02
SienaMAAC0.090.0964.0064.140.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.090.0971.4368.950.040.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.130.0827.2731.06-0.06-0.03
OhioMAC0.050.0861.9059.450.010.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0847.8350.14-0.000.00
BucknellPat0.090.0854.5558.170.010.01
FloridaSEC0.130.0865.2266.070.040.03
Virginia TechACC0.040.0854.1749.230.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.040.0882.6178.660.030.05
Wake ForestACC0.090.0843.4840.57-0.01-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.090.0879.1776.080.050.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.0621.7422.73-0.06-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.0659.0959.350.020.01
GeorgetownBE0.100.0656.0052.770.010.00
Green BayHorz0.050.0654.5556.000.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.100.0659.0961.320.020.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.065.007.23-0.04-0.05
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0633.3335.08-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.100.0628.5732.70-0.04-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.100.0633.3334.94-0.03-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0681.8283.040.030.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.0630.4332.36-0.04-0.02
BrownIvy0.000.0631.5831.08-0.00-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0660.0060.100.010.01
CornellIvy0.050.0642.1140.18-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.050.0660.0057.950.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0679.1780.720.000.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0682.6178.890.000.03
The CitadelSC0.050.0631.8230.06-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0628.5731.26-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.100.0640.9139.35-0.02-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0628.5733.37-0.04-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0626.0929.19-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.090.0666.6766.540.030.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0614.2920.64-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.069.0912.25-0.07-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.040.0647.6252.07-0.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0652.1751.960.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0671.4369.420.020.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0665.2259.020.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0619.0525.89-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.040.0665.2267.160.010.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0645.8342.26-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.040.0623.8127.69-0.02-0.03
TempleAmer0.090.0663.6459.840.020.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0676.1972.290.050.03
UABCUSA0.050.0682.6179.410.030.03
USC UpstateASun0.090.0622.7323.24-0.05-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.050.0652.1751.940.000.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0613.6413.62-0.03-0.04
VillanovaBE0.090.0686.9686.360.070.04
KansasB120.100.0681.8277.600.060.03
ProvidenceBE0.100.0675.0070.940.050.02
IPFWSum0.100.0670.8368.570.040.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0668.1866.690.030.02
ArmyPat0.040.0654.1754.570.000.01
ColgatePat0.040.0643.4844.80-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.090.0621.7422.99-0.05-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.090.0636.3636.08-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.040.0654.5554.490.000.00
West VirginiaB120.040.0682.6179.560.030.03
ClemsonACC0.050.0558.3358.410.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.090.0552.1751.630.000.00
IUPUISum0.090.0540.0039.79-0.02-0.01
NebraskaB100.090.0554.1751.850.010.00
PurdueB100.040.0579.1776.510.020.03
IowaB100.090.0582.6180.590.060.03
Ohio St.B100.000.0558.3354.120.000.00
RutgersB100.040.0521.7420.35-0.02-0.03
WisconsinB100.040.0560.8755.840.010.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0340.9136.60-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.050.0325.0026.39-0.03-0.01
BYUWCC0.050.0366.6769.510.020.01
OklahomaB120.050.0386.9682.610.040.02
WoffordSC0.050.0343.4846.23-0.01-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.040.0337.5040.54-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.040.0386.9686.690.030.02
DenverSum0.040.0354.1751.800.000.00
DePaulBE0.050.0334.7834.54-0.02-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0371.4368.720.020.01
MercerSC0.050.0369.5769.090.020.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0333.3333.02-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0328.5729.68-0.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.040.0330.4331.18-0.02-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0331.5831.99-0.02-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0372.2275.580.020.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0347.8346.89-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.040.0366.6762.630.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0369.5767.170.020.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0350.0054.210.000.00
KentuckySEC0.040.0373.9171.560.020.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0357.8961.750.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0340.9140.65-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.040.0324.0024.50-0.02-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.040.0342.8650.39-0.010.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0314.2915.45-0.03-0.02
UtahP120.050.0369.5767.490.020.01
XavierBE0.050.0391.3084.340.040.02
Arizona St.P120.040.0354.1751.640.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.040.0324.0025.69-0.02-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.040.0363.6462.530.010.01
IllinoisB100.040.0345.8344.12-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.000.0379.1774.020.000.01
MarylandB100.040.0387.5083.700.030.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.040.0329.1733.74-0.02-0.01
MinnesotaB100.040.0326.0927.81-0.02-0.01
MissouriSEC0.040.0334.7830.38-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.040.0366.6763.440.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.040.0333.3334.19-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.040.0365.0063.440.010.01