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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Northeastern

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:55.0
Current RPI:55
Expected SOS:102
Current SOS:102
Current Record:22-10
Expected Record:22-10
Current Conf Record:16-5
Expected Conf Record:16-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-1
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:40
Expected OOC SOS:14



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-1055.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northeastern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Boston University (212.0)PatA59-65W100%0.0
11-17Stanford (86.0)P12A73-59L0%0.0
11-19Ohio St. (20.0)B10A80-55L0%0.0
11-24Utah St. (152.0)MWCN67-71L0%0.0
11-25Furman (97.0)SCN67-78L0%0.0
11-30Harvard (117.0)IvyH77-61W100%0.0
12-2Cornell (248.0)IvyH84-66W100%0.0
12-5Bucknell (80.0)PatH82-64W100%0.0
12-9Vermont (60.0)AEH71-67W100%0.0
12-18Kent St. (154.0)MACA69-81W100%0.0
12-20St. Bonaventure (24.0)A10A84-65L0%0.0
12-30James Madison (272.0)CAAA70-81W100%0.0
1-2Hofstra (121.0)CAAH70-71L0%0.0
1-5Elon (205.0)CAAH72-60W100%0.0
1-7James Madison (272.0)CAAH80-67W100%0.0
1-11College of Charleston (57.0)CAAA82-66L0%0.0
1-13UNC Wilmington (245.0)CAAA77-81W100%0.0
1-18William & Mary (94.0)CAAA70-90W100%0.0
1-20Delaware (233.0)CAAH76-64W100%0.0
1-25Hofstra (121.0)CAAA67-81W100%0.0
1-27Drexel (242.0)CAAA68-67L0%0.0
2-1College of Charleston (57.0)CAAH64-69L0%0.0
2-3UNC Wilmington (245.0)CAAH107-100W100%0.0
2-8Delaware (233.0)CAAA67-70W100%0.0
2-10Towson (153.0)CAAA62-77W100%0.0
2-15Drexel (242.0)CAAH75-69W100%0.0
2-17William & Mary (94.0)CAAH69-67W100%0.0
2-22Towson (153.0)CAAH80-75W100%0.0
2-24Elon (205.0)CAAA59-81W100%0.0
3-4Delaware (233.0)CAAN74-50W100%0.0
3-5UNC Wilmington (245.0)CAAN79-52W100%0.0
3-6College of Charleston (57.0)CAAN83-76L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northeastern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northeastern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northeastern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NortheasternCAA26.5826.5870.6770.6710.9910.99
College of CharlestonCAA5.725.7275.0075.002.862.86
DelawareCAA5.695.6942.8642.86-0.81-0.81
UNC WilmingtonCAA5.695.6933.3333.33-1.90-1.90
William & MaryCAA4.254.2562.9662.961.101.10
DrexelCAA4.234.2336.6736.67-1.13-1.13
ElonCAA4.234.2342.8642.86-0.60-0.60
HofstraCAA4.184.1860.7160.710.890.89
TowsonCAA4.154.1557.1457.140.590.59
James MadisonCAA4.154.1531.0331.03-1.57-1.57
CornellIvy1.721.7242.3142.31-0.26-0.26
Boston UniversityPat1.711.7148.2848.28-0.06-0.06
HarvardIvy1.701.7058.6258.620.290.29
FurmanSC1.691.6966.6766.670.560.56
BucknellPat1.661.6675.7675.760.860.86
Ohio St.B101.641.6474.1974.190.790.79
VermontAE1.641.6481.2581.251.021.02
StanfordP121.591.5953.1253.120.100.10
St. BonaventureA101.591.5977.4277.420.870.87
Kent St.MAC1.561.5650.0050.000.000.00
Utah St.MWC1.561.5646.8846.88-0.10-0.10
UNC GreensboroSC0.260.2677.4277.420.140.14
YaleIvy0.230.2350.0050.000.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.220.2226.6726.67-0.10-0.10
RichmondA100.220.2237.5037.50-0.06-0.06
SienaMAAC0.200.2025.0025.00-0.10-0.10
PennIvy0.190.1974.1974.190.090.09
LafayettePat0.180.1830.0030.00-0.07-0.07
NavyPat0.170.1761.2961.290.040.04
BuffaloMAC0.170.1775.7675.760.090.09
Old DominionCUSA0.160.1678.1278.120.090.09
DavidsonA100.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
Western CarolinaSC0.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
ArmyPat0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
ColgatePat0.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
La SalleA100.150.1540.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.130.1323.0823.08-0.07-0.07
ManhattanMAAC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.130.1340.7440.74-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.130.1317.8617.86-0.08-0.08
ValparaisoMVC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
Rhode IslandA100.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
Holy CrossPat0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
LehighPat0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
UMBCAE0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
New HampshireAE0.120.1227.5927.59-0.05-0.05
BrownIvy0.110.1138.4638.46-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.110.1126.9226.92-0.05-0.05
PrincetonIvy0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.100.1013.3313.33-0.08-0.08
FIUCUSA0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
RiderMAAC0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
BradleyMVC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Coastal CarolinaSB0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
AmericanPat0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
AlbanyAE0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
MaineAE0.100.1013.3313.33-0.07-0.07
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.090.0958.0658.060.020.02
AuburnSEC0.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
TCUB120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
CampbellBSth0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
LSUSEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
DukeACC0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
ClemsonACC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
DaytonA100.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.086.676.67-0.07-0.07
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Notre DameACC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Wichita St.Amer0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
Weber St.BSky0.070.0760.7160.710.020.02
Penn St.B100.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.070.0771.4371.430.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
CaliforniaP120.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
UCLAP120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
FordhamA100.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
VMISC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
ButlerBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
IndianaB100.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
IowaB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
NJITASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TempleAmer0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
VCUA100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
HartfordAE0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0512.5012.50-0.04-0.04
NevadaMWC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
USCP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
IllinoisB100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
NebraskaB100.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.020.0282.3582.350.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0244.1244.12-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0232.3532.35-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
DenverSum0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
KansasB120.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
MontanaBSky0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
PacificWCC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
XavierBE0.020.0284.8584.850.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01