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Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


Northeastern

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:62.0
Current RPI:59
Expected SOS:159
Current SOS:158
Current Record:3-0
Expected Record:21-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-2
Current OOC Record:3-0
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:31
Expected OOC SOS:77



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-110.50.02%
28-212.30.11%
27-316.10.62%
26-421.92.13%
25-527.84.80%
24-633.99.43%
23-742.315.24%
22-851.917.19%
21-963.217.70%
20-1076.314.07%
19-1190.79.38%
18-12106.65.24%
17-13123.62.54%
16-14142.50.94%
15-15160.50.46%
14-16182.80.11%
13-17186.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northeastern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Boston University (117.4)PatN65-71W100%0.0
11-18Florida St. (130.3)ACCA73-76W100%0.0
11-22Navy (271.4)PatN68-44W100%0.0
11-26Massachusetts (50.9)A10A0-035%-4.5
11-29Fairfield (262.0)MAACH0-093%17.8
12-3Harvard (76.9)IvyA0-037%-4.0
12-6Western Michigan (127.8)MACH0-078%9.1
12-17Cal Poly (207.4)BWN0-078%9.4
12-20Santa Clara (167.4)WCCA0-054%1.3
12-22Saint Mary's (40.9)WCCA0-028%-7.1
12-31Richmond (51.7)A10A0-029%-6.5
1-3Delaware (278.2)CAAA0-079%9.6
1-5UNC Wilmington (163.9)CAAH0-083%11.4
1-8James Madison (233.3)CAAA0-071%6.5
1-10Towson (170.2)CAAA0-063%3.9
1-14Hofstra (137.4)CAAH0-076%8.3
1-17College of Charleston (127.4)CAAH0-071%6.5
1-19Detroit (139.0)HorzH0-073%7.2
1-22James Madison (233.3)CAAH0-087%13.7
1-24William & Mary (172.7)CAAA0-066%5.0
1-28Drexel (257.0)CAAA0-072%7.1
1-31Elon (231.7)CAAH0-087%13.8
2-4Towson (170.2)CAAH0-082%11.1
2-7Delaware (278.2)CAAH0-092%16.8
2-12Hofstra (137.4)CAAA0-054%1.2
2-14UNC Wilmington (163.9)CAAA0-064%4.2
2-18William & Mary (172.7)CAAH0-085%12.2
2-21Drexel (257.0)CAAH0-088%14.3
2-26Elon (231.7)CAAA0-071%6.6
2-28College of Charleston (127.4)CAAA0-048%-0.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northeastern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northeastern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northeastern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NortheasternCAA32.6426.39100.0075.2832.6413.35
James MadisonCAA0.004.2966.6748.300.00-0.15
TowsonCAA0.004.2975.0055.730.000.49
DelawareCAA0.004.290.0030.66-0.00-1.66
William & MaryCAA0.004.2766.6746.600.00-0.29
HofstraCAA0.004.2666.6764.710.001.25
College of CharlestonCAA0.004.2625.0057.51-0.000.64
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.004.2566.6750.490.000.04
ElonCAA0.004.2533.3342.78-0.00-0.61
DrexelCAA0.004.250.0033.23-0.00-1.42
RichmondA100.001.8166.6767.350.000.63
Cal PolyBW0.001.7950.0038.400.00-0.41
NavyPat16.671.780.0033.83-16.67-0.58
Saint Mary'sWCC0.001.76100.0071.820.000.77
Boston UniversityPat16.671.7650.0061.770.000.41
Santa ClaraWCC0.001.7650.0044.820.00-0.18
MassachusettsA100.001.7575.0060.260.000.36
HarvardIvy0.001.7250.0068.150.000.63
Florida St.ACC16.671.6950.0048.350.00-0.06
DetroitHorz0.001.6733.3355.51-0.000.18
FairfieldMAAC0.001.6725.0031.95-0.00-0.60
Western MichiganMAC0.001.67100.0056.000.000.20
La SalleA100.000.25100.0053.840.000.02
DavidsonA100.000.2050.0053.040.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.18100.0066.100.000.06
ColgatePat0.000.1733.3341.16-0.00-0.03
Miami FLACC0.000.17100.0073.530.000.08
CampbellBSth0.000.170.0030.19-0.00-0.07
St. BonaventureA100.000.1666.6752.550.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.16100.0087.190.000.12
PacificWCC0.000.1650.0029.910.00-0.06
San DiegoWCC0.000.1666.6748.330.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.16100.0062.040.000.04
Holy CrossPat0.000.15100.0063.360.000.04
BYUWCC0.000.15100.0070.030.000.06
PepperdineWCC0.000.15100.0050.830.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.15100.0080.090.000.09
BucknellPat0.000.1525.0035.71-0.00-0.04
Loyola MDPat0.000.1550.0031.980.00-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.140.0040.40-0.00-0.03
IonaMAAC0.000.1466.6766.670.000.05
High PointBSth0.000.1475.0055.790.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1450.0037.110.00-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC2.780.1433.3345.85-0.93-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.140.0035.36-0.00-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.000.1366.6760.610.000.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1233.3327.10-0.00-0.06
PortlandWCC0.000.12100.0051.660.000.00
AmericanPat0.000.1250.0054.620.000.01
LafayettePat0.000.1275.0064.270.000.03
LehighPat0.000.120.0036.87-0.00-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.120.0032.70-0.00-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.000.120.0036.36-0.00-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1250.0062.620.000.03
LibertyBSth0.000.1233.3335.41-0.00-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.000.12100.0070.030.000.05
MaristMAAC0.000.120.0034.55-0.00-0.04
DukeACC0.000.11100.0086.130.000.08
East CarolinaAmer0.000.110.0033.55-0.00-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1166.6754.020.000.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1150.0038.370.00-0.03
TempleAmer0.000.1150.0053.100.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.11100.0075.720.000.06
The CitadelSC0.000.110.0028.08-0.00-0.05
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1166.6758.230.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.11100.0056.240.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.11100.0046.040.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.110.0033.68-0.00-0.04
ManhattanMAAC2.780.1133.3357.45-0.930.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.11100.0059.190.000.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1033.3335.92-0.00-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1033.3353.79-0.000.01
PennIvy0.000.090.0025.60-0.00-0.05
UC IrvineBW0.000.0950.0063.070.000.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.090.0034.98-0.00-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.000.0966.6734.100.00-0.03
NorthwesternB100.000.09100.0042.120.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.090.0032.48-0.00-0.03
OhioMAC0.000.0950.0056.270.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.0975.0075.140.000.04
VMISC0.000.0933.3339.27-0.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0966.6767.200.000.03
HowardMEAC0.000.090.0035.51-0.00-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.09100.0073.290.000.04
LouisvilleACC0.000.09100.0078.630.000.05
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0950.0041.480.00-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0966.6763.960.000.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.090.0028.32-0.00-0.04
Notre DameACC2.080.08100.0074.622.080.04
ProvidenceBE4.860.08100.0069.674.860.03
DaytonA100.000.0866.6769.640.000.03
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0866.6756.650.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0875.0060.550.000.02
SienaMAAC0.000.0833.3359.64-0.000.02
FordhamA100.000.080.0035.11-0.00-0.02
George MasonA100.000.0825.0019.94-0.00-0.05
George WashingtonA100.000.0866.6776.510.000.04
RadfordBSth0.000.0833.3348.73-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.000.08100.0073.570.000.04
AkronMAC0.000.0666.6763.730.000.02
BrownIvy0.000.0625.0037.31-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0650.0044.170.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0046.020.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0640.0040.58-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0035.64-0.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0049.250.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0675.0054.790.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0045.990.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0625.0040.91-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0633.3364.19-0.000.02
UC DavisBW0.000.06100.0042.650.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.060.0028.19-0.00-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0055.87-0.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.0666.6762.540.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.06100.0056.330.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0061.500.000.01
Michigan St.B102.080.0666.6771.600.690.03
New HampshireAE0.000.060.0041.97-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0666.6760.720.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0675.0047.170.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0633.3327.11-0.00-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0650.0053.430.000.00
USCP120.000.0650.0027.780.00-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0633.3332.78-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3346.93-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.000.060.0067.49-0.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0625.0035.65-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0620.0026.89-0.00-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0620.0027.80-0.00-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.060.0033.14-0.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0666.6761.350.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0666.6749.590.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0666.6758.650.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0625.0035.61-0.00-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.060.0031.63-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0633.3344.56-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0625.0041.91-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0675.0071.090.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0065.270.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0039.36-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.06100.0046.730.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.06100.0058.780.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.060.0037.13-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.06100.0076.190.000.03
FurmanSC0.000.0633.3325.18-0.00-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0666.6768.980.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0062.070.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0633.3324.07-0.00-0.03
RiderMAAC0.000.0666.6751.290.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0032.69-0.00-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0666.6765.320.000.02
UMBCAE0.000.060.0036.19-0.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0067.570.000.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0533.3321.74-0.00-0.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0550.0051.120.000.00
DuquesneA100.000.05100.0052.610.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0533.3336.99-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.050.0025.03-0.00-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.050.0043.84-0.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0533.3322.74-0.00-0.03
Ohio St.B100.000.05100.0071.340.000.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0566.6750.790.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0550.0037.890.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.05100.0065.140.000.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0533.3364.76-0.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0566.6733.180.00-0.02
WagnerNEC0.000.050.0045.12-0.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0550.0041.630.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0350.0054.900.000.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0375.0069.830.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.030.0025.08-0.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.030.0033.08-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0350.0049.760.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.03100.0065.060.000.01
IPFWSum0.000.0350.0063.720.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.03100.0070.980.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0333.3346.76-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.030.0017.53-0.00-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0042.680.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0375.0057.480.000.00
VermontAE0.000.0333.3358.93-0.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0333.3327.58-0.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.030.0034.71-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0375.0063.040.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0055.850.000.00
DenverSum0.000.0350.0061.440.000.01
KentuckySEC2.780.03100.0085.632.780.02
MichiganB100.000.03100.0064.370.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0325.0066.02-0.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0333.3354.70-0.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0333.3349.42-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.000.03100.0071.440.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0333.3343.68-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0052.540.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0350.0034.510.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.03100.0085.100.000.02
AlbanyAE0.000.0333.3362.56-0.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0366.6773.760.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0366.6767.990.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.030.0042.57-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0350.0054.970.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.03100.0072.860.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.03100.0053.080.000.00
IUPUISum0.000.0350.0031.810.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0045.350.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6752.320.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.030.0047.13-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0072.420.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.030.0032.07-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0375.0068.160.000.01