Denver

Conference:	SB
Expected RPI:	91.3
Current RPI:	88
Expected SOS:	184
Current SOS:	148
Current Record:	17-7
Expected Record:	21-8
Current Conf Record:	7-4
Expected Conf Record:	11-5
Probability of Auto Bid:	27.59%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	12-1
Current OOC Record:	10-3
Expected OOC Record:	10-3
Expected OOC RPI:	39
Expected OOC SOS:	70

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
22-7	77.7	29.16%
21-8	90.4	43.05%
20-9	103.7	22.28%
19-10	118.3	4.96%
18-11	134.8	0.52%
17-12	158.0	0.02%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Denver.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Portland St. (207.8)	BSky	H	69-61	W	100%	0.0
11-14	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (314.7)	Slnd	A	58-65	W	100%	0.0
11-17	Southern Mississippi (15.8)	CUSA	H	59-52	W	100%	0.0
11-23	St. Mary's (16.3)	WCC	H	70-58	W	100%	0.0
11-26	California (42.4)	P12	A	80-59	L	0%	0.0
11-30	Utah St. (132.3)	WAC	A	54-67	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Texas Southern (244.5)	SWAC	H	62-46	W	100%	0.0
12-7	Iona (46.0)	MAAC	H	78-80	L	0%	0.0
12-14	Northern Colorado (251.5)	BSky	A	65-71	W	100%	0.0
12-17	Boise St. (176.5)	MWC	H	79-62	W	100%	0.0
12-19	Wyoming (55.5)	MWC	H	57-46	W	100%	0.0
12-22	The Citadel (331.4)	SC	H	70-58	W	100%	0.0
12-29	Troy (274.9)	SB	H	79-62	W	100%	0.0
12-31	Arkansas Little Rock (187.7)	SB	H	59-66	L	0%	0.0
1-5	Arkansas St. (228.9)	SB	A	50-53	W	100%	0.0
1-7	South Alabama (196.0)	SB	A	50-67	W	100%	0.0
1-11	Colorado St. (33.3)	MWC	A	79-75	L	0%	0.0
1-15	Western Kentucky (240.2)	SB	H	78-65	W	100%	0.0
1-19	Louisiana Monroe (323.3)	SB	A	48-63	W	100%	0.0
1-21	North Texas (203.3)	SB	A	75-74	L	0%	0.0
1-26	Arkansas St. (228.9)	SB	H	66-52	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Arkansas Little Rock (187.7)	SB	A	64-57	L	0%	0.0
2-2	Louisiana Lafayette (159.3)	SB	A	72-71	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Middle Tennessee (49.6)	SB	H	75-60	W	100%	0.0
2-9	Florida Atlantic (179.8)	SB	A	0-0		63%	3.5
2-11	Florida International (212.8)	SB	A	0-0		69%	5.5
2-16	Louisiana Lafayette (159.3)	SB	H	0-0		83%	10.3
2-18	Louisiana Monroe (323.3)	SB	H	0-0		98%	22.0
2-26	North Texas (203.3)	SB	H	0-0		82%	10.1

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Denver's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Denver's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Denver.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Denver	SB	26.31	26.19	72.12	73.24	11.64	12.17
Arkansas St.	SB	4.54	4.13	40.91	41.06	-0.83	-0.74
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	4.53	4.13	38.10	40.12	-1.08	-0.82
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	2.55	4.13	52.17	54.46	0.11	0.37
Louisiana Monroe	SB	2.63	4.12	9.09	9.60	-2.15	-3.33
North Texas	SB	2.62	4.11	47.37	49.27	-0.14	-0.06
South Alabama	SB	2.60	2.40	55.00	54.99	0.26	0.24
Middle Tennessee	SB	2.46	2.35	86.96	87.79	1.82	1.77
Western Kentucky	SB	2.41	2.35	36.36	35.71	-0.66	-0.67
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.45	2.34	36.36	39.80	-0.12	-0.48
Florida International	SB	0.37	2.34	33.33	37.41	-0.12	-0.59
Troy	SB	2.46	2.34	30.00	31.38	-0.98	-0.87
Colorado St.	MWC	2.33	1.94	65.00	59.35	0.70	0.36
Wyoming	MWC	2.28	1.91	80.00	73.35	1.37	0.89
Boise St.	MWC	2.18	1.85	45.00	42.65	-0.22	-0.27
Northern Colorado	BSky	2.23	1.85	31.58	32.80	-0.82	-0.64
Portland St.	BSky	2.19	1.82	45.00	47.49	-0.22	-0.09
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	2.18	1.79	90.00	85.12	1.75	1.26
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	2.18	1.79	19.05	21.86	-1.35	-1.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	2.13	1.75	33.33	43.58	-0.71	-0.23
Utah St.	WAC	2.13	1.75	52.17	54.75	0.09	0.17
California	P12	2.08	1.72	73.91	73.76	1.00	0.82
Iona	MAAC	2.08	1.72	78.26	79.42	1.18	1.01
St. Mary's	WCC	2.08	1.72	95.24	90.99	1.88	1.41
The Citadel	SC	2.08	1.72	10.00	11.88	-1.67	-1.31
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.24	0.27	82.61	81.44	0.15	0.17
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.33	0.27	42.86	43.45	-0.05	-0.04
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.24	0.25	78.26	72.34	0.14	0.11
Idaho St.	BSky	0.35	0.25	33.33	33.88	-0.12	-0.08
Seattle	ind	0.31	0.23	23.53	33.28	-0.16	-0.08
Weber St.	BSky	0.29	0.22	80.00	76.84	0.17	0.12
San Diego St.	MWC	0.19	0.21	85.71	78.05	0.14	0.12
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.18	0.21	25.00	23.75	-0.09	-0.11
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.27	0.21	55.00	54.48	0.03	0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.25	0.19	13.64	16.14	-0.18	-0.13
Air Force	MWC	0.15	0.18	47.37	42.16	-0.01	-0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.15	0.18	81.82	81.03	0.09	0.11
Texas Christian	MWC	0.15	0.18	57.14	49.54	0.02	-0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.19	0.18	19.05	25.52	-0.12	-0.09
Mississippi	SEC	0.18	0.18	63.64	56.71	0.05	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.27	0.18	54.17	57.20	0.02	0.03
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.20	0.16	59.09	57.28	0.04	0.02
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.15	0.16	40.91	44.03	-0.03	-0.02
Montana	BSky	0.20	0.16	70.00	73.28	0.08	0.07
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.14	0.16	59.09	57.76	0.03	0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.19	0.16	40.91	39.82	-0.03	-0.03
Indiana St.	MVC	0.14	0.15	56.52	54.22	0.02	0.01
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.14	0.15	76.19	75.94	0.07	0.08
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.19	0.15	69.57	68.90	0.08	0.06
Murray St.	OVC	0.18	0.15	100.00	94.55	0.18	0.13
Colorado	P12	0.19	0.15	66.67	62.65	0.06	0.04
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.18	0.15	41.18	42.61	-0.03	-0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.17	0.15	71.43	69.05	0.07	0.06
Lamar	Slnd	0.18	0.15	61.90	67.23	0.04	0.05
Austin Peay	OVC	0.22	0.14	33.33	35.97	-0.07	-0.04
Texas Tech	B12	0.15	0.13	31.82	25.98	-0.05	-0.06
Montana St.	BSky	0.15	0.13	45.00	41.76	-0.02	-0.02
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.10	0.13	30.00	33.20	-0.04	-0.04
Grambling	SWAC	0.10	0.12	15.00	15.73	-0.07	-0.08
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.10	0.12	26.32	29.79	-0.05	-0.05
Portland	WCC	0.10	0.12	21.74	21.70	-0.05	-0.07
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.15	0.12	57.14	60.75	0.02	0.03
Utah Valley	GWC	0.19	0.12	54.55	57.69	0.02	0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.09	0.12	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.15	0.12	16.67	23.02	-0.10	-0.06
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.14	0.12	27.78	29.58	-0.06	-0.05
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.14	0.12	38.10	37.86	-0.03	-0.03
Fresno St.	WAC	0.19	0.12	39.13	44.52	-0.04	-0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.09	0.12	47.62	51.08	-0.00	0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.09	0.12	71.43	66.60	0.04	0.04
Tulsa	CUSA	0.14	0.12	60.87	59.05	0.03	0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.18	0.12	34.78	35.50	-0.06	-0.03
Georgia Southern	SC	0.10	0.10	40.00	41.30	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Utah	Sum	0.14	0.10	45.45	44.30	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.15	0.09	62.50	61.50	0.04	0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.14	0.09	33.33	33.82	-0.05	-0.03
Furman	SC	0.14	0.09	47.62	48.83	-0.01	-0.00
NC Greensboro	SC	0.14	0.09	34.78	33.46	-0.04	-0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.09	0.09	45.45	44.66	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	ASun	0.14	0.09	69.57	73.28	0.05	0.04
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.09	0.09	80.77	80.75	0.06	0.06
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.09	17.65	27.10	-0.06	-0.04
Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.09	45.00	46.13	-0.01	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.14	0.09	75.00	76.00	0.07	0.05
Texas A&M	B12	0.09	0.09	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.09	0.09	65.00	66.70	0.03	0.03
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.09	30.00	37.30	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.09	17.39	24.41	-0.03	-0.05
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.09	47.06	50.75	-0.00	0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.14	0.09	35.00	35.26	-0.04	-0.03
Manhattan	MAAC	0.14	0.09	68.00	69.07	0.05	0.03
Siena	MAAC	0.09	0.09	45.45	45.55	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.14	0.09	40.91	38.38	-0.03	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.09	0.09	59.09	59.72	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.14	0.09	76.19	72.91	0.07	0.04
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.14	0.09	56.52	57.72	0.02	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.13	0.09	78.26	72.66	0.07	0.04
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.13	0.09	4.35	9.66	-0.12	-0.07
Oregon	P12	0.09	0.09	69.57	64.53	0.04	0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.09	0.09	63.64	63.16	0.03	0.02
Stanford	P12	0.09	0.09	69.57	68.29	0.04	0.03
Utah	P12	0.09	0.09	18.18	15.01	-0.06	-0.06
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.09	0.09	27.78	29.87	-0.04	-0.03
Nevada	WAC	0.09	0.09	80.95	76.42	0.05	0.05
St. Louis	A10	0.13	0.09	77.27	77.67	0.07	0.05
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.09	0.09	21.74	24.58	-0.05	-0.04
UCLA	P12	0.09	0.09	54.55	56.79	0.01	0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.09	0.09	27.27	26.95	-0.04	-0.04
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.07	55.00	54.80	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.10	0.07	52.38	52.86	0.00	0.00
Texas	B12	0.05	0.07	60.87	61.37	0.01	0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.07	34.78	37.24	-0.02	-0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.06	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.05	0.06	72.22	71.97	0.02	0.03
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.06	58.33	59.98	0.01	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.06	76.19	76.76	0.03	0.03
Elon	SC	0.10	0.06	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Wofford	SC	0.10	0.06	59.09	57.93	0.02	0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.00	0.06	76.00	72.50	0.00	0.03
Georgia St.	CAA	0.00	0.06	66.67	69.69	0.00	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.06	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.06	81.82	81.49	0.03	0.04
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.10	0.06	20.00	19.96	-0.06	-0.04
Pepperdine	WCC	0.09	0.06	31.82	33.83	-0.03	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.06	28.57	26.30	-0.02	-0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.04	0.06	59.09	50.82	0.01	0.00
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.06	54.55	48.60	0.00	-0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.06	43.48	43.31	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.09	0.06	90.91	83.85	0.08	0.04
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.09	0.06	38.10	42.78	-0.02	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.04	0.06	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.09	0.06	8.70	11.67	-0.08	-0.05
Duquesne	A10	0.04	0.06	59.09	56.35	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.10	0.06	44.44	41.71	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.04	0.06	25.00	28.52	-0.02	-0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.09	0.06	62.50	62.06	0.02	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.09	0.06	95.83	92.57	0.08	0.05
Memphis	CUSA	0.10	0.06	69.57	71.51	0.04	0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.04	0.06	61.90	63.52	0.01	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.04	0.06	68.00	70.03	0.02	0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.09	0.06	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.09	0.06	80.00	78.06	0.05	0.03
Washington	P12	0.04	0.06	69.57	66.54	0.02	0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.06	47.62	44.63	-0.00	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.06	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.09	0.06	62.50	62.49	0.02	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.09	0.06	30.43	31.43	-0.04	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.09	0.06	17.39	19.81	-0.06	-0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.04	0.06	54.55	54.30	0.00	0.00
Hawaii	WAC	0.04	0.06	57.14	53.12	0.01	0.00
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.04	0.06	77.27	73.45	0.02	0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.04	0.06	34.78	33.43	-0.01	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.06	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.09	0.06	37.50	41.54	-0.02	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.09	0.06	81.82	77.20	0.06	0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.09	0.06	35.00	40.78	-0.03	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.04	0.06	37.50	38.52	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.09	0.06	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.09	0.06	60.00	59.06	0.02	0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.05	0.06	22.22	27.62	-0.03	-0.03
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.04	0.06	55.56	58.01	0.00	0.01
Southern California	P12	0.04	0.06	25.00	25.13	-0.02	-0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	72.73	71.71	0.02	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.43	0.02	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.03	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.03	30.00	34.15	-0.02	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.00	0.03	35.00	39.29	-0.00	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.05	0.03	40.91	41.72	-0.01	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.03	55.00	60.33	0.00	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.00	0.03	27.27	35.02	-0.00	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.00	0.03	60.87	60.96	0.00	0.01
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.03	31.82	32.75	-0.02	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.03	40.00	40.18	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.05	0.03	33.33	35.26	-0.02	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.03	45.00	44.15	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.00	0.03	56.52	55.20	0.00	0.00
American	Pat	0.00	0.03	65.22	63.79	0.00	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.03	24.00	24.86	-0.03	-0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.05	0.03	47.83	47.87	-0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.05	0.03	21.05	22.46	-0.03	-0.02
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.03	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.36	83.09	0.04	0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.00	0.03	90.48	87.91	0.00	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.03	54.17	49.44	0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	34.78	38.42	-0.02	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.00	0.03	78.26	78.39	0.00	0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.05	0.03	71.43	73.35	0.02	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.00	0.03	65.00	60.02	0.00	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.03	33.33	37.25	-0.02	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.03	5.26	7.30	-0.04	-0.03
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.03	26.32	28.83	-0.02	-0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.03	35.00	39.38	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.04	0.03	68.18	67.91	0.02	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.03	34.78	32.06	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.03	61.90	58.59	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.04	0.03	69.57	65.87	0.02	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.15	0.02	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.03	55.00	57.41	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.00	0.03	28.57	34.20	-0.00	-0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.04	0.03	70.83	71.05	0.02	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.03	61.90	55.14	0.01	0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.03	45.45	40.70	-0.00	-0.01
Pacific	BW	0.04	0.03	35.00	37.47	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.04	0.03	65.22	60.58	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.04	0.03	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.00	0.03	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.04	0.03	60.00	62.49	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	65.17	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.04	0.03	40.91	42.96	-0.01	-0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.04	0.03	82.61	80.42	0.03	0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.04	0.03	12.50	13.44	-0.03	-0.02
Arizona	P12	0.04	0.03	66.67	68.55	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.04	0.03	34.78	32.08	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.04	0.03	45.45	41.20	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri	B12	0.04	0.03	91.30	87.18	0.04	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.04	0.03	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00