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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Denver

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:232.0
Current RPI:232
Expected SOS:153
Current SOS:153
Current Record:12-18
Expected Record:12-18
Current Conf Record:6-11
Expected Conf Record:6-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-6
Current OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:168
Expected OOC SOS:72



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-18232.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Denver.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Idaho St. (343.0)BSkyH54-38W100%0.0
11-20Saint Mary's (68.0)WCCA78-62L0%0.0
11-23Coppin St. (311.0)MEACH80-54W100%0.0
11-26Belmont (105.0)OVCA78-57L0%0.0
11-30New Orleans (326.0)SlndH79-60W100%0.0
12-2Wyoming (71.0)MWCA68-42L0%0.0
12-6Texas A&M Corpus Chris (209.0)SlndA48-64W100%0.0
12-10Northern Iowa (14.0)MVCH55-65L0%0.0
12-13Stanford (59.0)P12A49-43L0%0.0
12-17Texas A&M Corpus Chris (209.0)SlndH83-73W100%0.0
12-19Colorado St. (29.0)MWCH84-85L0%0.0
12-21Bryant (189.0)NECH46-48L0%0.0
12-29Saint Joseph's (187.0)A10H77-73W100%0.0
1-2South Dakota St. (90.0)SumH76-69W100%0.0
1-4South Dakota (213.0)SumH69-74L0%0.0
1-8IPFW (215.0)SumA69-53L0%0.0
1-10IUPUI (260.0)SumA52-49L0%0.0
1-14Western Illinois (328.0)SumH68-54W100%0.0
1-21Oral Roberts (163.0)SumH73-66W100%0.0
1-24Nebraska Omaha (300.0)SumA80-69L0%0.0
1-29North Dakota St. (92.0)SumA61-54L0%0.0
1-31South Dakota St. (90.0)SumA69-39L0%0.0
2-7Nebraska Omaha (300.0)SumH88-74W100%0.0
2-12North Dakota St. (92.0)SumH69-73L0%0.0
2-14IUPUI (260.0)SumH53-54L0%0.0
2-19IPFW (215.0)SumH47-63L0%0.0
2-21Western Illinois (328.0)SumA46-59W100%0.0
2-25South Dakota (213.0)SumA48-66W100%0.0
2-28Oral Roberts (163.0)SumA60-57L0%0.0
3-7North Dakota St. (92.0)SumN61-50L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Denver's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Denver's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Denver.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DenverSum26.4726.4736.3636.36-7.22-7.22
North Dakota St.Sum5.915.9166.6766.671.971.97
South Dakota St.Sum4.454.4568.9768.971.691.69
South DakotaSum4.344.3448.2848.28-0.15-0.15
Oral RobertsSum4.334.3353.5753.570.310.31
IUPUISum4.254.2527.5927.59-1.91-1.91
IPFWSum4.234.2344.0044.00-0.51-0.51
Western IllinoisSum4.234.2325.0025.00-2.11-2.11
Nebraska OmahaSum4.194.1938.4638.46-0.97-0.97
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd3.433.4360.7160.710.730.73
New OrleansSlnd1.831.8332.0032.00-0.66-0.66
Idaho St.BSky1.721.7218.5218.52-1.08-1.08
Northern IowaMVC1.721.7290.6290.621.401.40
StanfordP121.721.7258.0658.060.280.28
Colorado St.MWC1.721.7280.6580.651.051.05
WyomingMWC1.721.7270.9770.970.720.72
BelmontOVC1.671.6766.6766.670.560.56
BryantNEC1.671.6750.0050.000.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC1.671.6724.1424.14-0.86-0.86
Saint Joseph'sA101.671.6743.3343.33-0.22-0.22
Saint Mary'sWCC1.671.6767.8667.860.600.60
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.250.2572.4172.410.110.11
North DakotaBSky0.250.2521.4321.43-0.14-0.14
Montana St.BSky0.250.2520.6920.69-0.15-0.15
IdahoBSky0.230.2339.2939.29-0.05-0.05
MontanaBSky0.220.2260.0060.000.040.04
AkronMAC0.200.2058.8258.820.040.04
Utah St.MWC0.190.1956.6756.670.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.190.1931.0331.03-0.07-0.07
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.180.1825.8125.81-0.09-0.09
Central ArkansasSlnd0.180.186.906.90-0.15-0.15
PacificWCC0.180.1832.1432.14-0.06-0.06
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.170.1786.6786.670.120.12
NevadaMWC0.160.1624.1424.14-0.08-0.08
MilwaukeeHorz0.160.1642.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.160.1660.7160.710.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
UNLVMWC0.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.160.1675.7675.760.080.08
Nicholls St.Slnd0.150.1526.9226.92-0.07-0.07
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Houston BaptistSlnd0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.140.1458.3358.330.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.140.1446.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
Saint LouisA100.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
New MexicoMWC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
BradleyMVC0.130.1325.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Fresno St.MWC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.120.1240.7440.74-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.120.1255.5655.560.010.01
PurdueB100.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
Weber St.BSky0.120.1239.2939.29-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
TexasB120.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
HowardMEAC0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.1175.8675.860.060.06
IowaB100.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
RichmondA100.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
UtahP120.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
DrakeMVC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.100.100.000.00-0.10-0.10
Cal PolyBW0.090.0940.7440.74-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0938.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
StetsonASun0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
LamarSlnd0.090.0942.3142.31-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.080.0893.9493.940.070.07
BYUWCC0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.06-0.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
WoffordSC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
VCUA100.080.0874.2974.290.040.04
CaliforniaP120.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
ColoradoP120.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0662.9662.960.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Kansas St.B120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0618.7518.75-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
OklahomaB120.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
RadfordBSth0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
TulsaAmer0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
UTSACUSA0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.056.906.90-0.05-0.05
OregonP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.04-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
FordhamA100.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
LipscombASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.050.0583.3383.330.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
Arizona St.P120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
UCLAP120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
USCP120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
IndianaB100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
IllinoisB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MichiganB100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
DavidsonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0374.0774.070.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
OhioMAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
VillanovaBE0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
YaleIvy0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0359.2659.260.000.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
SMUAmer0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01