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Through games of Nov 25, 2014.


Denver

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:111.6
Current RPI:200
Expected SOS:195
Current SOS:272
Current Record:2-1
Expected Record:19-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-3
Current OOC Record:2-1
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:93
Expected OOC SOS:77



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-219.00.01%
26-332.70.03%
25-435.40.46%
24-544.01.71%
23-656.14.48%
22-767.79.04%
21-882.414.11%
20-998.517.42%
19-10114.418.06%
18-11132.414.82%
17-12150.110.27%
16-13170.55.71%
15-14190.42.35%
14-15209.71.00%
13-16231.50.37%
12-17253.10.10%
11-18274.00.04%
10-19286.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Denver.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Idaho St. (308.4)BSkyH54-38W100%0.0
11-20Saint Mary's (42.3)WCCA78-62L0%0.0
11-23Coppin St. (283.4)MEACH80-54W100%0.0
11-26Belmont (83.9)OVCA0-033%-5.4
11-30New Orleans (281.2)SlndH0-091%15.9
12-2Wyoming (87.6)MWCA0-029%-6.6
12-6Texas A&M Corpus Chris (242.0)SlndA0-068%5.5
12-10Northern Iowa (46.3)MVCH0-045%-1.6
12-13Stanford (32.1)P12A0-013%-13.4
12-17Texas A&M Corpus Chris (242.0)SlndH0-085%12.6
12-19Colorado St. (60.4)MWCH0-052%0.5
12-21Bryant (166.4)NECH0-078%9.4
12-29Saint Joseph's (206.9)A10H0-082%10.9
1-2South Dakota St. (160.6)SumH0-072%7.2
1-4South Dakota (253.3)SumH0-083%11.2
1-8IPFW (167.2)SumA0-047%-0.8
1-10IUPUI (264.2)SumA0-075%8.0
1-14Western Illinois (317.4)SumH0-093%17.4
1-21Oral Roberts (238.3)SumH0-083%11.6
1-24Nebraska Omaha (225.8)SumA0-060%3.0
1-29North Dakota St. (218.8)SumA0-063%4.0
1-31South Dakota St. (160.6)SumA0-050%-0.0
2-7Nebraska Omaha (225.8)SumH0-080%10.2
2-12North Dakota St. (218.8)SumH0-082%11.2
2-14IUPUI (264.2)SumH0-090%15.1
2-19IPFW (167.2)SumH0-070%6.3
2-21Western Illinois (317.4)SumA0-080%10.2
2-25South Dakota (253.3)SumA0-063%4.0
2-28Oral Roberts (238.3)SumA0-064%4.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Denver's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Denver's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Denver.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DenverSum32.6426.4866.6766.7910.888.89
South Dakota St.Sum0.004.4033.3354.36-0.000.38
South DakotaSum0.004.370.0039.27-0.00-0.94
IUPUISum0.004.3440.0032.18-0.00-1.55
Nebraska OmahaSum0.004.3450.0051.390.000.12
Oral RobertsSum0.004.3325.0037.44-0.00-1.09
IPFWSum0.004.3366.6763.480.001.17
North Dakota St.Sum0.004.3350.0047.700.00-0.20
Western IllinoisSum0.004.3225.0026.55-0.00-2.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.003.5233.3352.10-0.000.15
New OrleansSlnd0.001.850.0037.79-0.00-0.45
Idaho St.BSky16.671.790.0029.65-16.67-0.73
Northern IowaMVC0.001.79100.0074.660.000.88
WyomingMWC0.001.79100.0067.670.000.63
Colorado St.MWC0.001.78100.0066.240.000.58
StanfordP120.001.7880.0069.850.000.71
BelmontOVC0.001.7275.0072.100.000.76
BryantNEC0.001.7250.0056.350.000.22
Coppin St.MEAC16.671.720.0028.56-16.67-0.74
Saint Joseph'sA100.001.7260.0038.120.00-0.41
Saint Mary'sWCC16.671.72100.0070.4516.670.71
IdahoBSky0.000.2533.3348.77-0.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.250.0044.87-0.00-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.000.250.0021.79-0.00-0.14
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.2250.0065.510.000.07
MontanaBSky0.000.2233.3351.32-0.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.2250.0051.850.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.200.0028.11-0.00-0.09
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.200.0023.12-0.00-0.11
AkronMAC0.000.2060.0066.000.000.06
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.190.0067.43-0.000.07
NevadaMWC0.000.1825.0043.34-0.00-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.1875.0061.090.000.04
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1866.6762.900.000.05
UNLVMWC0.000.1875.0050.770.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.160.0031.74-0.00-0.06
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.160.0025.45-0.00-0.08
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.16100.0053.250.000.01
PacificWCC0.000.1633.3330.38-0.00-0.06
New Mexico St.WAC2.780.1640.0067.55-0.560.05
Saint LouisA100.000.1575.0047.410.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.1533.3345.79-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.150.0051.20-0.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1520.0038.11-0.00-0.04
New MexicoMWC2.780.1560.0056.280.560.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.15100.0060.830.000.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.140.0046.74-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.140.0031.72-0.00-0.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.140.0047.30-0.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.1350.0067.350.000.05
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1350.0065.470.000.04
Weber St.BSky0.000.1325.0054.27-0.000.01
PurdueB100.000.1280.0067.040.000.04
BradleyMVC0.000.1250.0030.030.00-0.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1240.0044.83-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.1225.0046.58-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.1280.0063.110.000.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.120.0039.00-0.00-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.000.120.0025.33-0.00-0.06
San Diego St.MWC0.000.12100.0087.570.000.09
San Jose St.MWC0.000.120.0019.30-0.00-0.07
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1266.6750.600.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.1225.0046.48-0.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.1266.6754.750.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.1225.0027.00-0.00-0.05
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1275.0044.920.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1225.0037.50-0.00-0.03
RichmondA100.000.1266.6766.740.000.04
LamarSlnd0.000.1025.0037.60-0.00-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.1075.0050.700.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.1050.0034.200.00-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.1020.0045.09-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.100.0032.89-0.00-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.000.100.0036.25-0.00-0.03
IowaB100.000.1060.0064.290.000.03
StetsonASun0.000.100.0032.66-0.00-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1040.0047.10-0.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.10100.0080.120.000.06
Oregon St.P120.000.0966.6744.530.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0920.0050.95-0.000.00
BYUWCC0.000.0966.6769.270.000.03
GonzagaWCC0.000.09100.0085.190.000.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0933.3326.91-0.00-0.04
UtahP120.000.0966.6772.710.000.04
CreightonBE0.000.09100.0060.560.000.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0940.0033.22-0.00-0.03
ColoradoP120.000.0975.0059.500.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0975.0070.310.000.04
VCUA100.000.0980.0073.820.000.04
Georgia St.SB0.000.0950.0067.050.000.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.090.0064.97-0.000.03
Washington St.P122.780.0933.3329.16-0.93-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0933.3337.42-0.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.090.0044.90-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0980.0076.700.000.05
CaliforniaP120.000.0975.0069.250.000.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.070.0066.91-0.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0733.3345.50-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0720.0031.41-0.00-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.000.0775.0056.430.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.07100.0049.350.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.070.0024.22-0.00-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0720.0026.30-0.00-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.0775.0064.740.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0750.0030.040.00-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0766.6750.750.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0775.0055.300.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0625.0033.31-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.0660.0059.230.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0057.240.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0625.0051.72-0.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0017.79-0.00-0.04
MissouriSEC0.000.0640.0036.72-0.00-0.02
OklahomaB120.000.0666.6756.850.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0675.0059.380.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0633.3328.79-0.00-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.0675.0064.660.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0019.97-0.00-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0633.3346.11-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0675.0073.980.000.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.06100.0079.080.000.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0625.0031.38-0.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0660.0057.210.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.060.0042.35-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0650.0037.650.00-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0620.0053.43-0.000.00
NebraskaB100.000.0675.0053.250.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0625.0047.03-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.000.06100.0050.900.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0666.6763.740.000.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0633.3340.34-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0625.0045.15-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0020.18-0.00-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0025.13-0.00-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0666.6744.670.00-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.06100.0030.140.00-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0666.6756.780.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0021.34-0.00-0.03
OregonP122.080.0660.0063.180.420.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0625.0040.73-0.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.060.0030.42-0.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0650.0041.110.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0633.3340.46-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0625.0043.52-0.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0633.3333.44-0.00-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.060.0050.30-0.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0625.0044.79-0.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.060.0043.63-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.06100.0083.950.000.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0640.0038.29-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0620.0022.51-0.00-0.03
VermontAE0.000.0633.3358.10-0.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0075.900.000.03
Arizona St.P120.000.0660.0054.250.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0633.3346.41-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.000.060.0026.74-0.00-0.03
La SalleA100.000.06100.0056.940.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0680.0060.610.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.06100.0060.980.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0038.65-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0675.0052.460.000.00
UCLAP120.000.06100.0065.220.000.02
USCP120.000.0650.0028.900.00-0.02
WashingtonP120.000.06100.0055.960.000.01
XavierBE0.000.06100.0079.400.000.03
IndianaB100.000.0480.0058.080.000.01
TCUB120.000.04100.0057.870.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0475.0067.070.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0032.36-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0030.80-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0058.780.000.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0366.6754.260.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.030.0034.82-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0051.400.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0340.0047.31-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0360.0066.760.000.01
IllinoisB102.080.03100.0065.712.080.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0314.2929.93-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0333.3353.13-0.000.00
MichiganB100.000.0375.0066.400.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0366.6749.540.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0333.3368.48-0.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0027.32-0.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.03100.0072.230.000.01
Notre DameACC2.080.0380.0071.451.250.01
OhioMAC0.000.0366.6752.600.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.03100.0048.940.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0350.0046.060.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0340.0033.07-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0035.72-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0325.0045.33-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0052.030.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0366.6741.550.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0380.0058.000.000.00
UC IrvineBW2.780.0333.3367.26-0.930.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0070.870.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.03100.0069.380.000.01
BrownIvy0.000.0320.0038.78-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0366.6774.280.000.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0333.3349.68-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0325.0048.23-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0350.0050.280.000.00
SMUAmer0.000.0340.0066.55-0.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0035.37-0.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0350.0031.510.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0375.0065.600.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0316.6731.76-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0350.0053.610.000.00
DaytonA100.000.0375.0071.680.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.030.0018.08-0.00-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.03100.0036.220.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0320.0035.41-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0084.950.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.03100.0055.470.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6772.650.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0340.0028.76-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.030.0031.98-0.00-0.01
PennIvy0.000.030.0025.91-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0360.0049.930.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0078.020.000.02