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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Denver

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:188.0
Current RPI:188
Expected SOS:193
Current SOS:193
Current Record:16-15
Expected Record:16-15
Current Conf Record:8-10
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-4
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:218
Expected OOC SOS:320



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-15188.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Denver.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Milwaukee (173.0)HorzN71-58L0%0.0
11-14Santa Clara (251.0)WCCA33-55W100%0.0
11-15Lipscomb (269.0)ASunN82-69W100%0.0
11-18Utah Valley (272.0)WACH75-62W100%0.0
11-25Idaho St. (256.0)BSkyH79-69W100%0.0
11-28South Alabama (240.0)SBH69-56W100%0.0
12-2Wyoming (187.0)MWCH52-68L0%0.0
12-5Air Force (226.0)MWCH59-61L0%0.0
12-9San Diego (302.0)WCCA47-59W100%0.0
12-13Weber St. (108.0)BSkyH69-68W100%0.0
12-16Northern Colorado (304.0)BSkyA77-81W100%0.0
12-20Eastern Washington (233.0)BSkyH58-74L0%0.0
12-22UC Riverside (267.0)BWA63-54L0%0.0
1-1South Dakota St. (29.0)SumA68-59L0%0.0
1-3North Dakota St. (120.0)SumA75-49L0%0.0
1-6Oral Roberts (148.0)SumH78-75W100%0.0
1-9IPFW (71.0)SumH64-65L0%0.0
1-14Western Illinois (262.0)SumA69-76W100%0.0
1-16IUPUI (189.0)SumA76-61L0%0.0
1-21Nebraska Omaha (144.0)SumH55-69L0%0.0
1-28South Dakota (197.0)SumH66-52W100%0.0
1-30South Dakota St. (29.0)SumH56-67L0%0.0
2-4IUPUI (189.0)SumH53-51W100%0.0
2-6Nebraska Omaha (144.0)SumA72-75W100%0.0
2-11Western Illinois (262.0)SumH60-63L0%0.0
2-13IPFW (71.0)SumA88-84L0%0.0
2-19Oral Roberts (148.0)SumA62-58L0%0.0
2-21South Dakota (197.0)SumA71-76W100%0.0
2-27North Dakota St. (120.0)SumH70-59W100%0.0
3-6Nebraska Omaha (144.0)SumN70-78W100%0.0
3-7South Dakota St. (29.0)SumA54-53L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Denver's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Denver's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Denver.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DenverSum26.5026.5050.3350.330.180.18
South Dakota St.Sum5.835.8375.0075.002.922.92
Nebraska OmahaSum5.715.7157.6957.690.880.88
North Dakota St.Sum4.324.3258.6258.620.740.74
IPFWSum4.224.2268.9768.971.601.60
South DakotaSum4.214.2142.8642.86-0.60-0.60
IUPUISum4.194.1937.9337.93-1.01-1.01
Oral RobertsSum4.184.1840.7440.74-0.77-0.77
Western IllinoisSum4.084.0827.2727.27-1.85-1.85
Weber St.BSky1.941.9476.6776.671.031.03
Northern ColoradoBSky1.881.8828.5728.57-0.81-0.81
Idaho St.BSky1.831.8350.0050.000.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky1.781.7848.2848.28-0.06-0.06
WyomingMWC1.751.7537.9337.93-0.42-0.42
Santa ClaraWCC1.751.7534.4834.48-0.54-0.54
MilwaukeeHorz1.721.7256.6756.670.230.23
UC RiversideBW1.671.6736.6736.67-0.44-0.44
Utah ValleyWAC1.671.6734.6234.62-0.51-0.51
Air ForceMWC1.671.6737.9337.93-0.40-0.40
San DiegoWCC1.671.6728.5728.57-0.71-0.71
LipscombASun1.671.6733.3333.33-0.56-0.56
South AlabamaSB1.661.6640.0040.00-0.33-0.33
Montana St.BSky0.360.3643.3343.33-0.05-0.05
North DakotaBSky0.320.3248.2848.28-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.300.3032.1432.14-0.11-0.11
Southern UtahBSky0.270.2714.2914.29-0.19-0.19
Utah St.MWC0.240.2448.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.240.2437.9337.93-0.06-0.06
Sacramento St.BSky0.240.2441.3841.38-0.04-0.04
MinnesotaB100.240.2425.8125.81-0.12-0.12
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.220.2239.2939.29-0.05-0.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.220.2210.7110.71-0.17-0.17
MontanaBSky0.210.2162.0762.070.050.05
UNLVMWC0.210.2151.6151.610.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.210.2156.6756.670.030.03
BYUWCC0.190.1968.7568.750.070.07
IdahoBSky0.190.1961.2961.290.040.04
UC DavisBW0.190.1932.1432.14-0.07-0.07
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.180.1855.1755.170.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.170.1767.7467.740.060.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.170.1772.4172.410.070.07
Missouri St.MVC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.160.1643.3343.33-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
San FranciscoWCC0.160.1648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.160.1621.4321.43-0.09-0.09
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.160.1628.5728.57-0.07-0.07
Austin PeayOVC0.160.1648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.140.1479.3179.310.080.08
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.140.1418.5218.52-0.09-0.09
Saint Mary'sWCC0.140.1483.8783.870.090.09
ColoradoP120.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
New MexicoMWC0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
PacificWCC0.140.1423.0823.08-0.07-0.07
Colorado St.MWC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
NevadaMWC0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
JacksonvilleASun0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Chicago St.WAC0.130.133.453.45-0.12-0.12
CreightonBE0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.120.1210.7110.71-0.09-0.09
SeattleWAC0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
PepperdineWCC0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
DetroitHorz0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
IllinoisB100.110.1144.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
ValparaisoHorz0.100.1080.0080.000.060.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Boise St.MWC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
UtahP120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
BelmontOVC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0821.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
TCUB120.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
IowaB100.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
FIUCUSA0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
OklahomaB120.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
TulsaAmer0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
IndianaB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Iowa St.B120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
NavyPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
NJITASun0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
PurdueB100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
RiceCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
UTSACUSA0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
UMBCAE0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
USCP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
DavidsonA100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0322.8622.86-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01