Denver

Conference:	Sum
Expected RPI:	224.0
Current RPI:	224
Expected SOS:	231
Current SOS:	231
Current Record:	13-15
Expected Record:	13-15
Current Conf Record:	9-7
Expected Conf Record:	9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-5
Current OOC Record:	4-8
Expected OOC Record:	4-8
Expected OOC RPI:	299
Expected OOC SOS:	290

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-15	224.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Denver.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	UC Irvine (119.0)	BW	H	69-83	L	0%
11-14	Colorado (82.0)	P12	A	89-62	L	0%
11-24	Florida Gulf Coast (172.0)	ASun	A	79-71	L	0%
11-25	St. Francis NY (276.0)	NEC	N	50-60	W	100%
11-26	Navy (200.0)	Pat	N	71-79	L	0%
11-29	Wyoming (98.0)	MWC	H	88-78	W	100%
12-2	Air Force (253.0)	MWC	H	59-61	L	0%
12-5	San Jose St. (314.0)	MWC	H	58-56	W	100%
12-9	USC Upstate (344.0)	ASun	H	84-69	W	100%
12-13	Northern Colorado (110.0)	BSky	A	83-63	L	0%
12-15	Stanford (86.0)	P12	A	75-62	L	0%
12-18	Montana St. (283.0)	BSky	A	79-65	L	0%
12-30	South Dakota (91.0)	Sum	A	82-71	L	0%
1-6	Fort Wayne (209.0)	Sum	H	63-82	L	0%
1-11	North Dakota St. (210.0)	Sum	A	61-67	W	100%
1-13	South Dakota St. (37.0)	Sum	A	94-72	L	0%
1-18	Nebraska Omaha (284.0)	Sum	A	86-80	L	0%
1-20	Oral Roberts (255.0)	Sum	A	64-73	W	100%
1-25	Western Illinois (302.0)	Sum	H	70-58	W	100%
1-27	South Dakota (91.0)	Sum	H	84-68	W	100%
2-3	Fort Wayne (209.0)	Sum	A	91-63	L	0%
2-8	South Dakota St. (37.0)	Sum	H	77-81	L	0%
2-10	North Dakota St. (210.0)	Sum	H	66-63	W	100%
2-14	Nebraska Omaha (284.0)	Sum	H	94-78	W	100%
2-18	Oral Roberts (255.0)	Sum	H	66-65	W	100%
2-24	Western Illinois (302.0)	Sum	A	52-89	W	100%
3-4	Oral Roberts (255.0)	Sum	N	90-88	W	100%
3-5	South Dakota (91.0)	Sum	N	76-58	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Denver's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Denver's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Denver.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Denver	Sum	26.55	26.55	45.83	45.83	-2.21	-2.21
South Dakota	Sum	6.37	6.37	74.07	74.07	3.07	3.07
Oral Roberts	Sum	6.21	6.21	32.00	32.00	-2.23	-2.23
South Dakota St.	Sum	4.77	4.77	78.57	78.57	2.73	2.73
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	4.61	4.61	22.22	22.22	-2.56	-2.56
North Dakota St.	Sum	4.58	4.58	44.44	44.44	-0.51	-0.51
Fort Wayne	Sum	4.52	4.52	46.15	46.15	-0.35	-0.35
Western Illinois	Sum	4.49	4.49	36.36	36.36	-1.23	-1.23
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	2.04	2.04	63.33	63.33	0.54	0.54
San Jose St.	MWC	2.02	2.02	10.71	10.71	-1.59	-1.59
Wyoming	MWC	2.00	2.00	61.29	61.29	0.45	0.45
Northern Colorado	BSky	1.99	1.99	60.00	60.00	0.40	0.40
Montana St.	BSky	1.97	1.97	34.48	34.48	-0.61	-0.61
Colorado	P12	1.93	1.93	51.61	51.61	0.06	0.06
Air Force	MWC	1.90	1.90	32.14	32.14	-0.68	-0.68
USC Upstate	ASun	1.87	1.87	11.11	11.11	-1.46	-1.46
Navy	Pat	1.85	1.85	60.00	60.00	0.37	0.37
UC Irvine	BW	1.85	1.85	46.88	46.88	-0.12	-0.12
St. Francis NY	NEC	1.84	1.84	39.29	39.29	-0.39	-0.39
Stanford	P12	1.81	1.81	53.12	53.12	0.11	0.11
North Dakota	BSky	0.33	0.33	33.33	33.33	-0.11	-0.11
Drake	MVC	0.33	0.33	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
UNLV	MWC	0.31	0.31	60.61	60.61	0.06	0.06
New Mexico	MWC	0.30	0.30	54.55	54.55	0.03	0.03
Montana	BSky	0.30	0.30	77.42	77.42	0.16	0.16
Missouri St.	MVC	0.28	0.28	53.12	53.12	0.02	0.02
UCLA	P12	0.25	0.25	65.62	65.62	0.08	0.08
Stetson	ASun	0.25	0.25	28.57	28.57	-0.11	-0.11
Utah St.	MWC	0.24	0.24	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.23	0.23	70.00	70.00	0.09	0.09
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.23	0.23	13.33	13.33	-0.17	-0.17
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.23	0.23	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.21	0.21	32.26	32.26	-0.07	-0.07
Arizona	P12	0.20	0.20	79.41	79.41	0.12	0.12
Bowling Green	MAC	0.18	0.18	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.18	0.18	27.59	27.59	-0.08	-0.08
Lipscomb	ASun	0.18	0.18	68.97	68.97	0.07	0.07
San Diego St.	MWC	0.18	0.18	67.74	67.74	0.06	0.06
Fresno St.	MWC	0.18	0.18	63.33	63.33	0.05	0.05
Nevada	MWC	0.18	0.18	79.41	79.41	0.10	0.10
USC	P12	0.17	0.17	67.65	67.65	0.06	0.06
Washington	P12	0.17	0.17	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Arizona St.	P12	0.16	0.16	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
Oakland	Horz	0.16	0.16	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.15	0.15	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
TCU	B12	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
North Florida	ASun	0.15	0.15	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.15	0.15	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
Boise St.	MWC	0.15	0.15	73.33	73.33	0.07	0.07
Kansas	B12	0.15	0.15	79.41	79.41	0.09	0.09
Miami OH	MAC	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.14	0.14	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
American	Pat	0.13	0.13	20.00	20.00	-0.08	-0.08
Minnesota	B10	0.13	0.13	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.12	0.12	16.13	16.13	-0.08	-0.08
Jacksonville	ASun	0.12	0.12	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.12	0.12	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
NJIT	ASun	0.12	0.12	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Army	Pat	0.12	0.12	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Utah	BSky	0.12	0.12	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Idaho St.	BSky	0.12	0.12	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.12	0.12	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.12	0.12	20.00	20.00	-0.07	-0.07
Weber St.	BSky	0.12	0.12	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.12	0.12	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Idaho	BSky	0.11	0.11	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
UC Davis	BW	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Washington St.	P12	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
California	P12	0.11	0.11	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Milwaukee	Horz	0.10	0.10	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.10	0.10	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Little Rock	SB	0.10	0.10	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.10	0.10	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.10	0.10	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Tulsa	Amer	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.09	0.09	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.09	0.09	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.09	0.09	9.68	9.68	-0.07	-0.07
Duke	ACC	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.09	0.09	16.67	16.67	-0.06	-0.06
Wichita St.	Amer	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Iowa	B10	0.09	0.09	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Pacific	WCC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Oregon St.	P12	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Utah	P12	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.08	0.08	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.08	0.08	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	BE	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Horz	0.07	0.07	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	6.67	6.67	-0.06	-0.06
Detroit	Horz	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.06	0.06	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Louisville	ACC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
UTEP	CUSA	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Wagner	NEC	0.06	0.06	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.06	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Boston University	Pat	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.06	0.06	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Colgate	Pat	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.06	0.06	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Loyola MD	Pat	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.06	0.06	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Creighton	BE	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	ACC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Texas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.03	0.03	26.92	26.92	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Penn	Ivy	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Mercer	SC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	44.12	44.12	-0.00	-0.00
Xavier	BE	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	83.33	83.33	0.02	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00