Denver

Conference:	WAC
Expected RPI:	64.0
Current RPI:	64
Expected SOS:	134
Current SOS:	134
Current Record:	21-9
Expected Record:	21-9
Current Conf Record:	16-3
Expected Conf Record:	16-3
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-1
Current OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC RPI:	161
Expected OOC SOS:	83

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
21-9	64.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Denver.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Iona (98.0)	MAAC	A	65-58	L	0%
11-14	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (323.0)	Slnd	H	68-51	W	100%
11-16	California (54.0)	P12	H	61-72	L	0%
11-21	Colorado St. (18.0)	MWC	H	53-60	L	0%
11-27	Southern Mississippi (31.0)	CUSA	A	61-50	L	0%
12-2	Stanford (77.0)	P12	A	71-58	L	0%
12-5	Mercer (137.0)	ASun	H	69-40	W	100%
12-15	Nebraska Omaha (285.0)	Sum	H	82-47	W	100%
12-18	Wyoming (75.0)	MWC	A	71-61	L	0%
12-21	Southern Utah (314.0)	BSky	H	72-47	W	100%
12-29	Louisiana Tech (53.0)	WAC	A	68-60	L	0%
12-31	Texas Arlington (119.0)	WAC	A	35-50	W	100%
1-3	Texas St. (272.0)	WAC	H	64-53	W	100%
1-6	Texas San Antonio (260.0)	WAC	H	75-50	W	100%
1-10	Idaho (195.0)	WAC	A	49-55	W	100%
1-12	Seattle (303.0)	WAC	A	51-64	W	100%
1-17	San Jose St. (261.0)	WAC	H	73-37	W	100%
1-19	Utah St. (108.0)	WAC	H	68-57	W	100%
1-23	New Mexico St. (55.0)	WAC	A	53-42	L	0%
1-31	Texas San Antonio (260.0)	WAC	A	57-71	W	100%
2-2	Texas St. (272.0)	WAC	A	64-79	W	100%
2-7	Seattle (303.0)	WAC	H	72-55	W	100%
2-9	Idaho (195.0)	WAC	H	74-58	W	100%
2-14	Utah St. (108.0)	WAC	A	60-63	W	100%
2-16	San Jose St. (261.0)	WAC	A	41-62	W	100%
2-23	Northern Iowa (83.0)	MVC	A	57-63	W	100%
3-2	New Mexico St. (55.0)	WAC	H	66-60	W	100%
3-7	Texas Arlington (119.0)	WAC	H	84-55	W	100%
3-9	Louisiana Tech (53.0)	WAC	H	78-54	W	100%
3-14	Texas St. (272.0)	WAC	N	68-72	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Denver's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Denver's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Denver.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Denver	WAC	26.40	26.40	71.97	71.97	11.60	11.60
Texas St.	WAC	5.98	5.98	33.33	33.33	-1.99	-1.99
New Mexico St.	WAC	4.47	4.47	70.97	70.97	1.88	1.88
Texas Arlington	WAC	4.42	4.42	63.33	63.33	1.18	1.18
Texas San Antonio	WAC	4.39	4.39	33.33	33.33	-1.46	-1.46
Seattle	WAC	4.35	4.35	25.93	25.93	-2.09	-2.09
Utah St.	WAC	4.33	4.33	71.43	71.43	1.86	1.86
Louisiana Tech	WAC	4.33	4.33	82.76	82.76	2.84	2.84
Idaho	WAC	4.30	4.30	40.74	40.74	-0.80	-0.80
San Jose St.	WAC	4.24	4.24	30.77	30.77	-1.63	-1.63
Stanford	P12	1.80	1.80	54.84	54.84	0.17	0.17
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	1.77	1.77	18.52	18.52	-1.12	-1.12
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	1.77	1.77	70.97	70.97	0.74	0.74
Colorado St.	MWC	1.72	1.72	73.33	73.33	0.80	0.80
Wyoming	MWC	1.72	1.72	55.17	55.17	0.18	0.18
California	P12	1.72	1.72	63.33	63.33	0.46	0.46
Northern Iowa	MVC	1.69	1.69	56.67	56.67	0.23	0.23
Iona	MAAC	1.67	1.67	59.38	59.38	0.31	0.31
Mercer	ASun	1.67	1.67	67.74	67.74	0.59	0.59
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	1.67	1.67	35.71	35.71	-0.48	-0.48
Southern Utah	BSky	1.67	1.67	32.14	32.14	-0.60	-0.60
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.35	0.35	38.46	38.46	-0.08	-0.08
New Mexico	MWC	0.32	0.32	85.29	85.29	0.23	0.23
Boise St.	MWC	0.28	0.28	65.52	65.52	0.09	0.09
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.24	0.24	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.21	0.21	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Utah	P12	0.21	0.21	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
UC Davis	BW	0.20	0.20	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.19	0.19	72.73	72.73	0.09	0.09
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.18	0.18	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.17	0.17	39.29	39.29	-0.04	-0.04
Weber St.	BSky	0.17	0.17	80.00	80.00	0.10	0.10
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.17	0.17	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
Idaho St.	BSky	0.17	0.17	17.24	17.24	-0.11	-0.11
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.17	0.17	30.00	30.00	-0.07	-0.07
Nevada	MWC	0.17	0.17	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Illinois St.	MVC	0.16	0.16	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.16	0.16	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Colorado	P12	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Oregon	P12	0.16	0.16	76.47	76.47	0.08	0.08
Oregon St.	P12	0.16	0.16	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Montana	BSky	0.14	0.14	79.31	79.31	0.08	0.08
North Dakota	BSky	0.14	0.14	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.14	0.14	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Washington	P12	0.14	0.14	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.14	0.14	32.14	32.14	-0.05	-0.05
Lamar	Slnd	0.14	0.14	9.68	9.68	-0.11	-0.11
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.14	0.14	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
New Orleans	ind	0.12	0.12	18.18	18.18	-0.08	-0.08
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.12	0.12	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.12	0.12	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.12	0.12	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	70.37	70.37	0.05	0.05
Washington St.	P12	0.11	0.11	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.11	0.11	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Southern California	P12	0.11	0.11	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.11	0.11	73.53	73.53	0.05	0.05
Memphis	CUSA	0.11	0.11	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Missouri St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Northwestern	B10	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.09	0.09	13.79	13.79	-0.06	-0.06
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.09	0.09	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.09	0.09	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.08	0.08	81.25	81.25	0.05	0.05
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Oklahoma	B12	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Drake	MVC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.08	0.08	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Indiana St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Arizona St.	P12	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Lipscomb	ASun	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Fordham	A10	0.08	0.08	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.08	0.08	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
UC Riverside	BW	0.08	0.08	14.29	14.29	-0.05	-0.05
Canisius	MAAC	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	85.19	85.19	0.04	0.04
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Chicago St.	GWC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.06	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Portland St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.06	35.71	35.71	-0.02	-0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	14.81	14.81	-0.04	-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.05	0.05	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.05	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.05	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	10.00	10.00	-0.04	-0.04
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.03	0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	93.75	93.75	0.03	0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Christian	B12	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	67.86	67.86	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Pacific	BW	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.03	-0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00