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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Denver

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:207.0
Current RPI:207
Expected SOS:290
Current SOS:290
Current Record:16-14
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:8-9
Expected Conf Record:8-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-3
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:186
Expected OOC SOS:323



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-14207.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Denver.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Jacksonville (291.0)ASunH84-92L0%0.0
11-17San Jose St. (191.0)MWCA69-74W100%0.0
11-23Utah Valley (206.0)WACH85-88L0%0.0
11-26Eastern Washington (148.0)BSkyA85-80L0%0.0
11-27Sacramento St. (293.0)BSkyN61-72W100%0.0
11-30Wyoming (152.0)MWCA82-70L0%0.0
12-3Weber St. (185.0)BSkyA55-57W100%0.0
12-7Texas A&M (92.0)SECA80-58L0%0.0
12-10Air Force (250.0)MWCA65-77W100%0.0
12-13South Alabama (231.0)SBA51-64W100%0.0
12-17Northern Colorado (286.0)BSkyH73-70W100%0.0
12-19Arkansas Pine Bluff (345.0)SWACH74-52W100%0.0
12-22UC Riverside (330.0)BWH73-55W100%0.0
12-28Oral Roberts (292.0)SumH77-73W100%0.0
1-4South Dakota (123.0)SumH69-75L0%0.0
1-7Fort Wayne (178.0)SumA87-83L0%0.0
1-11Western Illinois (325.0)SumH84-70W100%0.0
1-14North Dakota St. (111.0)SumH79-55W100%0.0
1-18Nebraska Omaha (132.0)SumA97-88L0%0.0
1-21IUPUI (218.0)SumA74-78W100%0.0
1-25South Dakota St. (160.0)SumH91-82W100%0.0
1-28South Dakota (123.0)SumA88-83L0%0.0
1-31Oral Roberts (292.0)SumA69-93W100%0.0
2-4Fort Wayne (178.0)SumH76-73W100%0.0
2-11North Dakota St. (111.0)SumA81-63L0%0.0
2-14Western Illinois (325.0)SumA72-78W100%0.0
2-19IUPUI (218.0)SumH72-83L0%0.0
2-22Nebraska Omaha (132.0)SumH83-84L0%0.0
2-25South Dakota St. (160.0)SumA88-64L0%0.0
3-5South Dakota St. (160.0)SumA83-73L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Denver's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Denver's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Denver.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DenverSum26.4226.4255.7155.713.023.02
South Dakota St.Sum5.955.9548.2848.28-0.21-0.21
Nebraska OmahaSum4.394.3951.7251.720.150.15
South DakotaSum4.364.3662.0762.071.051.05
IUPUISum4.304.3039.2939.29-0.92-0.92
North Dakota St.Sum4.244.2461.5461.540.980.98
Fort WayneSum4.244.2457.6957.690.650.65
Western IllinoisSum4.234.2325.0025.00-2.11-2.11
Oral RobertsSum4.184.1823.0823.08-2.25-2.25
WyomingMWC1.881.8851.7251.720.060.06
Weber St.BSky1.871.8758.6258.620.320.32
Sacramento St.BSky1.861.8639.2939.29-0.40-0.40
Air ForceMWC1.841.8433.3333.33-0.61-0.61
Eastern WashingtonBSky1.841.8463.3363.330.490.49
Northern ColoradoBSky1.841.8434.6234.62-0.57-0.57
San Jose St.MWC1.781.7844.4444.44-0.20-0.20
UC RiversideBW1.731.7323.0823.08-0.93-0.93
Utah ValleyWAC1.731.7340.7440.74-0.32-0.32
JacksonvilleASun1.721.7244.4444.44-0.19-0.19
South AlabamaSB1.701.7041.3841.38-0.29-0.29
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.671.6720.6920.69-0.98-0.98
Texas A&MSEC1.671.6750.0050.000.000.00
MontanaBSky0.430.4350.0050.000.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.360.3646.6746.67-0.02-0.02
IdahoBSky0.350.3555.1755.170.040.04
North DakotaBSky0.350.3567.8667.860.120.12
Southern UtahBSky0.310.3112.9012.90-0.23-0.23
Idaho St.BSky0.260.2613.3313.33-0.19-0.19
UC IrvineBW0.250.2557.5857.580.040.04
UMKCWAC0.250.2546.6746.67-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.230.2362.5062.500.060.06
UNLVMWC0.230.2334.3834.38-0.07-0.07
Utah St.MWC0.230.2343.3343.33-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.200.2025.8125.81-0.10-0.10
Colorado St.MWC0.200.2065.6265.620.060.06
Miami OHMAC0.180.1830.0030.00-0.07-0.07
Portland St.BSky0.170.1742.8642.86-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.170.1727.5927.59-0.08-0.08
ArkansasSEC0.170.1773.5373.530.080.08
MilwaukeeHorz0.170.1729.4129.41-0.07-0.07
SeattleWAC0.170.1737.0437.04-0.04-0.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.170.1751.7251.720.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.170.1762.0762.070.040.04
Fresno St.MWC0.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.160.1644.4444.44-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Little RockSB0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.140.1482.3582.350.090.09
San Diego St.MWC0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
DrakeMVC0.130.1320.6920.69-0.08-0.08
Chicago St.WAC0.120.1210.3410.34-0.10-0.10
Austin PeayOVC0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.120.1268.9768.970.040.04
Kansas St.B120.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.120.1218.5218.52-0.07-0.07
Arkansas St.SB0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
Illinois St.MVC0.120.1281.2581.250.070.07
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.120.1221.8821.88-0.06-0.06
PortlandWCC0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
MississippiSEC0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
USCP120.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
CaliforniaP120.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
AmericanPat0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
OklahomaB120.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
HawaiiBW0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0967.8667.860.030.03
North FloridaASun0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.093.333.33-0.08-0.08
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.090.0935.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Washington St.P120.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0983.3383.330.060.06
XavierBE0.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.080.0896.9796.970.080.08
TroySB0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
ColoradoP120.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
NebraskaB100.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
Murray St.OVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
PurdueB100.060.0678.1278.120.040.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
BaylorB120.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
CreightonBE0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
DetroitHorz0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
High PointBSth0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Michigan St.B100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
NavyPat0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NJITASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
OaklandHorz0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
RichmondA100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
TulsaAmer0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.060.0688.2488.240.040.04
UCLAP120.060.0687.8887.880.040.04
BYUWCC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
FIUCUSA0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
MichiganB100.060.0668.5768.570.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
Texas St.SB0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
HofstraCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
IowaB100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
LSUSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
BucknellPat0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
ButlerBE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
SienaMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
ArmyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
BryantNEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01