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Through games of Feb 6, 2016.


Denver

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:200.4
Current RPI:195
Expected SOS:226
Current SOS:229
Current Record:13-11
Expected Record:15-14
Current Conf Record:5-6
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-3
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:223
Expected OOC SOS:330



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-11158.30.63%
17-12171.97.28%
16-13186.123.07%
15-14200.437.37%
14-15215.325.61%
13-16230.76.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Denver.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Milwaukee (167.0)HorzN71-58L0%0.0
11-14Santa Clara (263.6)WCCA33-55W100%0.0
11-15Lipscomb (275.0)ASunN82-69W100%0.0
11-18Utah Valley (257.3)WACH75-62W100%0.0
11-25Idaho St. (272.2)BSkyH79-69W100%0.0
11-28South Alabama (256.6)SBH69-56W100%0.0
12-2Wyoming (179.0)MWCH52-68L0%0.0
12-5Air Force (232.6)MWCH59-61L0%0.0
12-9San Diego (289.0)WCCA47-59W100%0.0
12-13Weber St. (138.6)BSkyH69-68W100%0.0
12-16Northern Colorado (311.7)BSkyA77-81W100%0.0
12-20Eastern Washington (208.4)BSkyH58-74L0%0.0
12-22UC Riverside (263.8)BWA63-54L0%0.0
1-1South Dakota St. (41.0)SumA68-59L0%0.0
1-3North Dakota St. (114.4)SumA75-49L0%0.0
1-6Oral Roberts (151.4)SumH78-75W100%0.0
1-9IPFW (83.6)SumH64-65L0%0.0
1-14Western Illinois (259.5)SumA69-76W100%0.0
1-16IUPUI (179.8)SumA76-61L0%0.0
1-21Nebraska Omaha (136.2)SumH55-69L0%0.0
1-28South Dakota (191.3)SumH66-52W100%0.0
1-30South Dakota St. (41.0)SumH56-67L0%0.0
2-4IUPUI (179.8)SumH53-51W100%0.0
2-6Nebraska Omaha (136.2)SumA72-75W100%0.0
2-11Western Illinois (259.5)SumH0-066%4.6
2-13IPFW (83.6)SumA0-024%-7.7
2-19Oral Roberts (151.4)SumA0-032%-5.2
2-21South Dakota (191.3)SumA0-038%-3.3
2-27North Dakota St. (114.4)SumH0-042%-2.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Denver's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Denver's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Denver.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DenverSum26.4026.3850.8349.730.44-0.14
South DakotaSum2.824.3843.4842.01-0.37-0.70
South Dakota St.Sum4.774.3875.0075.072.382.19
Nebraska OmahaSum4.784.3757.1456.800.680.59
IUPUISum4.794.3539.1339.07-1.04-0.95
North Dakota St.Sum2.684.3461.9060.850.640.94
IPFWSum2.684.3269.5767.131.051.48
Oral RobertsSum2.684.3140.9141.65-0.49-0.72
Western IllinoisSum2.714.2929.4130.26-1.11-1.69
Weber St.BSky2.532.0368.4271.830.930.89
Northern ColoradoBSky2.482.0030.0027.96-0.99-0.88
Idaho St.BSky2.381.9747.3747.85-0.13-0.09
Eastern WashingtonBSky2.181.9150.0052.300.000.09
Santa ClaraWCC2.261.8731.8232.29-0.82-0.66
WyomingMWC2.271.8540.9140.45-0.41-0.35
MilwaukeeHorz2.221.8457.1458.190.320.30
Utah ValleyWAC2.191.7935.0036.34-0.66-0.49
UC RiversideBW2.181.7843.4839.64-0.28-0.37
Air ForceMWC2.171.7842.8636.28-0.31-0.49
LipscombASun2.181.7826.0930.31-1.04-0.70
San DiegoWCC2.131.7833.3330.22-0.71-0.71
South AlabamaSB2.171.7835.0035.41-0.65-0.52
Montana St.BSky0.380.3740.9143.72-0.07-0.05
North DakotaBSky0.350.3147.3749.97-0.02-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.390.3115.0015.36-0.27-0.21
Sacramento St.BSky0.200.2742.1145.73-0.03-0.02
UMKCWAC0.280.2528.5732.71-0.12-0.09
Utah St.MWC0.290.2545.0046.77-0.03-0.02
MontanaBSky0.150.2257.8962.290.020.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.250.2210.0013.12-0.20-0.16
Portland St.BSky0.150.2231.5837.72-0.06-0.05
UC DavisBW0.280.2140.0036.78-0.06-0.06
MinnesotaB100.280.2126.0927.82-0.13-0.09
UNLVMWC0.180.2150.0055.190.000.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.210.2140.9143.55-0.04-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.240.1965.2268.610.070.07
BYUWCC0.150.1866.6769.500.050.07
IdahoBSky0.100.1854.5554.930.010.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.180.1866.6767.680.060.07
PortlandWCC0.240.1840.0038.50-0.05-0.04
Missouri St.MVC0.170.1839.1337.74-0.04-0.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.190.1842.8650.39-0.030.00
San FranciscoWCC0.230.1854.5550.110.020.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.180.1847.6252.06-0.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.180.1837.5040.51-0.04-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.230.1825.0022.77-0.12-0.10
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.230.1828.5728.55-0.10-0.08
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.200.1614.2915.47-0.14-0.11
Saint Mary'sWCC0.190.1585.7185.390.140.11
PacificWCC0.190.1525.0028.89-0.09-0.06
New MexicoMWC0.140.1560.8762.990.030.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.180.1539.1338.57-0.04-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.140.1552.3850.420.010.00
NevadaMWC0.180.1555.0054.530.020.01
Miami OHMAC0.170.1531.8230.48-0.06-0.06
Chicago St.WAC0.110.144.357.73-0.10-0.12
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.110.135.007.24-0.09-0.11
CreightonBE0.140.1362.5059.780.040.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.140.1382.6181.140.090.08
SeattleWAC0.150.1347.6244.99-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.190.1269.5765.300.070.04
Arkansas St.SB0.150.1242.8639.18-0.02-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.140.1221.7422.74-0.08-0.07
DetroitHorz0.090.1247.6245.86-0.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.140.1278.2676.870.080.07
IllinoisB100.090.1247.8344.55-0.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.140.1256.5257.280.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.090.1272.7372.030.040.05
Fresno St.MWC0.090.1261.9059.650.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.090.1250.0049.850.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.090.1223.8127.69-0.05-0.05
ValparaisoHorz0.090.1281.8283.030.060.08
Wright St.Horz0.140.1256.5257.000.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.090.1230.0034.56-0.03-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.130.1257.8956.090.020.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.130.1221.7423.40-0.07-0.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.110.1043.4842.63-0.01-0.02
WisconsinB100.110.1060.8755.860.020.01
LSUSEC0.090.0965.2260.280.030.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.140.0971.4369.410.060.04
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0986.3679.150.060.05
SouthernSWAC0.140.0965.0066.790.040.03
Southern MissCUSA0.100.0931.5831.99-0.04-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.140.0952.6350.230.010.00
UtahP120.100.0972.7368.540.040.03
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0933.3335.50-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.140.0966.6766.540.050.03
Boise St.MWC0.090.0963.6462.520.030.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0917.3920.65-0.06-0.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.130.0935.0032.28-0.04-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.130.0952.1751.940.010.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.0950.0049.100.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.090.0972.7371.610.040.04
IowaB100.060.0781.8280.120.040.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0636.8441.46-0.02-0.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0640.9145.30-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0654.1750.940.010.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0673.9170.070.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0669.5768.500.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.0640.9140.64-0.02-0.01
MissouriSEC0.090.0634.7830.36-0.03-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0629.1733.14-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.050.0686.3682.100.030.04
TCUB120.090.0643.4837.22-0.01-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0647.8350.14-0.000.00
Texas TechB120.090.0659.0953.130.020.00
TulsaAmer0.050.0663.6459.960.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.100.0650.0051.170.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.100.0645.4549.71-0.01-0.00
LamarSlnd0.100.0631.5831.96-0.04-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0626.0929.20-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.100.0690.4886.860.080.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0640.0039.00-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0654.5556.010.000.01
IndianaB100.040.0679.1774.030.030.03
Kansas St.B120.040.0660.8758.450.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0657.8961.750.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0642.8646.34-0.01-0.00
NavyPat0.040.0662.5062.440.010.01
NJITASun0.090.0654.1755.260.010.01
North FloridaASun0.040.0665.2267.130.010.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.040.0663.1658.810.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.090.0633.3335.08-0.03-0.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0668.0067.970.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0668.1866.670.030.02
Texas St.SB0.050.0638.8938.51-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0623.8126.69-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.040.0628.5731.90-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.090.0622.7323.25-0.05-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0666.6770.540.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0630.4332.35-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.090.0628.5729.71-0.04-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.080.0663.6459.230.020.01
ButlerBE0.080.0669.5767.220.030.02
HawaiiBW0.040.0684.2181.680.030.04
Long Beach St.BW0.040.0645.4551.34-0.000.00
MarquetteBE0.080.0662.5056.260.020.01
MemphisAmer0.080.0660.8760.800.020.01
PurdueB100.080.0679.1776.550.050.03
LouisvilleACC0.050.0382.6177.730.030.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0376.1973.380.030.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0313.6413.63-0.04-0.02
DavidsonA100.050.0360.0057.950.010.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0321.7423.66-0.03-0.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0313.6418.14-0.03-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0325.0024.37-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.050.0381.8277.570.030.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0376.1968.220.030.01
UMBCAE0.050.0324.0026.41-0.03-0.01
USCP120.050.0378.2673.060.030.01
Washington St.P120.050.0336.3632.01-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0328.5731.37-0.02-0.01
AkronMAC0.040.0381.8280.040.030.02
ArizonaP120.050.0379.1778.310.030.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0320.8323.63-0.03-0.02
ArmyPat0.050.0352.1753.360.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0330.4326.49-0.02-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0365.2262.900.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.040.0386.3685.030.030.02
DuquesneA100.050.0363.6456.370.010.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0375.0076.230.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0322.7327.18-0.02-0.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0372.7368.020.020.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0350.0051.170.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0316.6720.14-0.03-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.040.0345.8346.65-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0369.5765.850.020.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0358.3354.170.010.00
PrincetonIvy0.040.0372.2274.710.020.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0328.0030.73-0.02-0.01
SamfordSC0.050.0339.1341.32-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0372.0070.500.020.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.040.0366.6762.630.010.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0333.3331.30-0.02-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.040.0331.5831.81-0.02-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.040.039.5213.53-0.04-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.040.0320.0026.76-0.03-0.01
OhioMAC0.040.0361.9059.420.010.01