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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Denver

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:270.4
Current RPI:259
Expected SOS:298
Current SOS:262
Current Record:2-4
Expected Record:12-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-7
Current OOC Record:2-4
Expected OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC RPI:263
Expected OOC SOS:298



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-8121.00.01%
20-9127.00.03%
19-10150.20.06%
18-11159.10.33%
17-12180.01.36%
16-13199.73.10%
15-14218.06.88%
14-15237.911.30%
13-16255.315.70%
12-17273.118.85%
11-18288.117.36%
10-19301.812.17%
9-20313.37.72%
8-21323.03.62%
7-22330.81.13%
6-23337.40.32%
5-24341.80.04%
4-25345.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Denver.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Jacksonville (208.9)ASunH84-92L0%0.0
11-17San Jose St. (205.1)MWCA69-74W100%0.0
11-23Utah Valley (129.4)WACH85-88L0%0.0
11-26Eastern Washington (219.8)BSkyA85-80L0%0.0
11-27Sacramento St. (337.5)BSkyN61-72W100%0.0
11-30Wyoming (182.2)MWCA82-70L0%0.0
12-3Weber St. (175.7)BSkyA0-026%-7.8
12-7Texas A&M (42.0)SECA0-04%-21.7
12-10Air Force (197.4)MWCA0-027%-7.5
12-13South Alabama (126.4)SBA0-023%-8.9
12-17Northern Colorado (274.9)BSkyH0-067%5.3
12-19Arkansas Pine Bluff (334.8)SWACH0-089%15.0
12-22UC Riverside (291.2)BWH0-068%5.5
12-28Oral Roberts (305.9)SumH0-073%7.3
1-4South Dakota (218.7)SumH0-056%1.8
1-7Fort Wayne (119.2)SumA0-015%-12.2
1-11Western Illinois (333.0)SumH0-075%8.3
1-14North Dakota St. (130.6)SumH0-038%-3.7
1-18Nebraska Omaha (183.8)SumA0-026%-7.6
1-21IUPUI (194.4)SumA0-027%-7.5
1-25South Dakota St. (254.3)SumH0-056%1.7
1-28South Dakota (218.7)SumA0-036%-4.4
1-31Oral Roberts (305.9)SumA0-054%1.1
2-4Fort Wayne (119.2)SumH0-031%-6.0
2-11North Dakota St. (130.6)SumA0-020%-9.9
2-14Western Illinois (333.0)SumA0-057%2.1
2-19IUPUI (194.4)SumH0-046%-1.3
2-22Nebraska Omaha (183.8)SumH0-045%-1.4
2-25South Dakota St. (254.3)SumA0-035%-4.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Denver's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Denver's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Denver.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DenverSum29.4826.4037.5041.83-7.37-4.32
South DakotaSum0.004.3657.1446.700.00-0.29
South Dakota St.Sum0.834.3614.2936.25-0.60-1.20
IUPUISum0.004.3328.5746.48-0.00-0.30
Nebraska OmahaSum0.004.3333.3347.53-0.00-0.21
Oral RobertsSum0.004.330.0017.95-0.00-2.77
Fort WayneSum0.004.3266.6770.460.001.77
North Dakota St.Sum0.004.3250.0061.090.000.96
Western IllinoisSum0.004.310.0021.72-0.00-2.44
Northern ColoradoBSky0.001.9116.6741.01-0.00-0.34
Weber St.BSky0.001.9120.0054.19-0.000.16
Sacramento St.BSky8.331.910.0022.11-8.33-1.06
WyomingMWC8.331.9150.0046.690.00-0.13
Air ForceMWC0.601.8850.0041.610.00-0.32
Eastern WashingtonBSky8.331.8560.0049.731.67-0.01
San Jose St.MWC8.331.8550.0038.880.00-0.41
UC RiversideBW0.001.790.0033.47-0.00-0.59
Utah ValleyWAC8.331.7950.0057.310.000.26
JacksonvilleASun8.331.7850.0057.920.000.28
South AlabamaSB0.601.7683.3360.580.400.37
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.001.720.0024.72-0.00-0.87
Texas A&MSEC0.001.7266.6765.050.000.52
MontanaBSky0.830.4714.2947.44-0.60-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.4050.0062.460.000.10
North DakotaBSky0.000.3533.3353.29-0.000.02
IdahoBSky0.830.3440.0050.88-0.170.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.310.0023.26-0.00-0.17
UC DavisBW0.690.2657.1448.410.10-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.830.2514.2929.81-0.60-0.10
UNLVMWC0.000.2571.4349.590.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.2571.4356.050.000.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.2214.2928.15-0.00-0.10
Utah St.MWC0.000.2250.0053.560.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.1950.0033.010.00-0.07
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1916.6730.02-0.00-0.08
Portland St.BSky0.000.1925.0040.37-0.00-0.04
StetsonASun0.000.1928.5728.26-0.00-0.08
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1983.3361.490.000.04
UC IrvineBW0.000.1950.0054.690.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.1983.3362.840.000.05
Boise St.MWC0.000.1850.0058.980.000.03
Fresno St.MWC0.000.1860.0039.610.00-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1750.0043.490.00-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.600.1633.3333.15-0.20-0.05
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1675.0064.960.000.05
SeattleWAC0.690.1520.0042.63-0.42-0.02
NevadaMWC0.000.1575.0070.470.000.06
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1575.0074.990.000.08
New MexicoMWC0.000.1571.4358.670.000.03
Little RockSB0.000.1560.0057.900.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.140.0017.30-0.00-0.09
Kansas St.B120.000.1385.7155.890.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1350.0056.260.000.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.130.0033.44-0.00-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.000.1340.0041.65-0.00-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1350.0066.170.000.04
PortlandWCC0.830.1260.0057.170.170.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1285.7168.390.000.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.1250.0055.850.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.120.0024.77-0.00-0.06
MississippiSEC0.000.1271.4346.010.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.120.0021.30-0.00-0.07
AmericanPat0.000.1016.6735.65-0.00-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1037.5036.24-0.00-0.03
Washington St.P121.670.1050.0036.820.00-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1071.4368.100.000.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.600.100.0024.32-0.60-0.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1016.6743.29-0.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.1050.0050.940.000.00
XavierBE0.000.09100.0074.800.000.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0942.8646.78-0.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0983.3351.920.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.830.09100.0091.060.830.08
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0933.3343.64-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.690.0971.4359.850.300.02
NebraskaB100.690.0950.0043.610.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.690.0971.4366.220.300.03
USCP120.000.09100.0075.380.000.05
CaliforniaP120.830.0983.3363.610.560.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0940.0057.49-0.000.01
TroySB0.000.0933.3332.23-0.00-0.03
PurdueB100.000.0771.4374.450.000.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0750.0038.430.00-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0733.3335.92-0.00-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0750.0059.670.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.070.0039.35-0.00-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0725.0024.28-0.00-0.03
UtahP120.000.0775.0061.040.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0728.5728.46-0.00-0.03
BYUWCC0.830.0771.4368.660.360.02
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0019.51-0.00-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0650.0071.330.000.03
High PointBSth0.000.0650.0051.260.000.00
IndianaB100.000.0683.3375.060.000.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0628.5730.29-0.00-0.03
LipscombASun0.000.0614.2933.07-0.00-0.02
NavyPat0.000.0628.5743.62-0.00-0.01
NJITASun0.000.0642.8650.32-0.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0614.2931.71-0.00-0.02
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0075.010.000.03
UMass LowellAE0.000.0625.0040.81-0.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0666.6758.420.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0633.3338.20-0.00-0.02
PacificWCC1.530.0650.0049.010.00-0.00
UCLAP120.000.06100.0083.550.000.04
FIUCUSA0.600.0616.6733.69-0.40-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0023.46-0.00-0.03
San FranciscoWCC1.390.0683.3350.740.930.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.600.0642.8637.60-0.09-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0650.0052.330.000.00
BaylorB120.000.06100.0074.460.000.03
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0076.650.000.03
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0038.26-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0657.1442.660.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0642.8644.33-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0671.4368.970.000.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0666.6754.420.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0671.4363.090.000.02
MichiganB100.000.0671.4366.530.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0650.0061.590.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0683.3378.430.000.04
PittsburghACC0.000.0685.7155.550.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0685.7169.010.000.02
RichmondA100.000.0657.1448.600.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0657.1440.590.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0039.200.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.0685.7170.990.000.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.77-0.00-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0683.3380.700.000.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0650.0045.410.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0660.0067.410.000.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0657.1440.550.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0683.3376.370.000.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.0650.0051.820.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0642.8661.90-0.000.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0043.310.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0657.1464.940.000.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0671.4386.030.000.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0013.30-0.00-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0614.2934.56-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.39-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0628.5734.18-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.060.0042.55-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0086.250.000.04
LSUSEC0.000.0671.4349.770.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0650.0045.920.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0616.6732.62-0.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.0625.0056.92-0.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0657.1467.020.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0657.1448.860.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0325.0053.29-0.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0316.6731.91-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0375.0067.660.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0340.0050.91-0.000.00
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0075.690.000.02
DavidsonA100.000.0383.3368.880.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0360.0070.140.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0342.8635.68-0.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0350.0035.230.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0342.8638.05-0.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.830.03100.0089.040.830.02
StanfordP120.000.0375.0059.100.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0328.5730.63-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.0380.0035.960.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0383.3369.840.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0320.0036.00-0.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.0333.3345.58-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.690.0328.5750.20-0.300.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0328.5739.44-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0375.0047.510.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0366.6761.340.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0320.0032.60-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0385.7173.010.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0320.0041.93-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0350.0052.140.000.00
SamfordSC0.000.0357.1455.810.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0333.3323.33-0.00-0.02
TexasB120.690.0350.0036.240.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0366.6756.020.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0383.3355.200.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0366.6756.360.000.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0387.5075.320.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0357.1444.160.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6754.380.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0371.4343.020.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0034.01-0.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0383.3356.560.000.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0328.5750.51-0.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0080.780.000.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0340.0043.86-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0325.0034.47-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.320.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.03100.0069.770.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0357.1461.940.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.920.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0383.3380.550.000.02