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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Denver

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:139.0
Current RPI:139
Expected SOS:118
Current SOS:118
Current Record:15-15
Expected Record:15-15
Current Conf Record:9-7
Expected Conf Record:9-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-2
Current OOC Record:6-8
Expected OOC Record:6-8
Expected OOC RPI:126
Expected OOC SOS:31



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-15139.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Denver.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12California (63.0)P12A77-50L0%0.0
11-17Stanford (41.0)P12H57-66L0%0.0
11-28Harvard (46.0)IvyN68-60L0%0.0
11-29Pepperdine (159.0)WCCN56-68L0%0.0
12-3Southern (171.0)SWACH75-74W100%0.0
12-7Mercer (81.0)ASunA64-63L0%0.0
12-11Colorado St. (182.0)MWCA70-80W100%0.0
12-15Wyoming (135.0)MWCH64-61W100%0.0
12-17Belmont (57.0)OVCH90-62W100%0.0
12-21UC Irvine (111.0)BWH50-63L0%0.0
12-28Alcorn St. (314.0)SWACN67-49W100%0.0
12-29UTEP (103.0)CUSAA60-54L0%0.0
12-31St. Francis PA (298.0)NECH83-61W100%0.0
1-4Saint Joseph's (32.0)A10A53-52L0%0.0
1-11South Dakota (255.0)SumA59-54L0%0.0
1-16IPFW (115.0)SumH64-67L0%0.0
1-18IUPUI (322.0)SumH66-45W100%0.0
1-23Nebraska Omaha (219.0)SumA60-74W100%0.0
1-25Western Illinois (290.0)SumA55-67W100%0.0
1-30South Dakota St. (138.0)SumH73-74L0%0.0
2-1North Dakota St. (35.0)SumH67-63W100%0.0
2-8South Dakota (255.0)SumH75-67W100%0.0
2-13IUPUI (322.0)SumA59-49L0%0.0
2-15IPFW (115.0)SumA62-73W100%0.0
2-20Western Illinois (290.0)SumH75-67W100%0.0
2-22Nebraska Omaha (219.0)SumH72-60W100%0.0
2-27South Dakota St. (138.0)SumA78-69L0%0.0
3-1North Dakota St. (35.0)SumA78-68L0%0.0
3-9South Dakota (255.0)SumN55-71W100%0.0
3-10North Dakota St. (35.0)SumN83-48L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Denver's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Denver's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Denver.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DenverSum26.5126.5149.2449.24-0.40-0.40
North Dakota St.Sum5.835.8380.0080.003.503.50
South DakotaSum5.825.8233.3333.33-1.94-1.94
IPFWSum4.384.3868.9768.971.661.66
South Dakota St.Sum4.334.3353.8553.850.330.33
Western IllinoisSum4.284.2828.0028.00-1.88-1.88
IUPUISum4.224.227.417.41-3.60-3.60
Nebraska OmahaSum4.164.1652.0052.000.170.17
WyomingMWC1.911.9155.1755.170.200.20
Alcorn St.SWAC1.811.8133.3333.33-0.60-0.60
StanfordP121.781.7862.5062.500.440.44
UTEPCUSA1.761.7666.6766.670.590.59
Colorado St.MWC1.751.7548.2848.28-0.06-0.06
CaliforniaP121.741.7458.0658.060.280.28
BelmontOVC1.731.7374.1974.190.840.84
SouthernSWAC1.731.7357.1457.140.250.25
UC IrvineBW1.721.7264.5264.520.500.50
MercerASun1.701.7073.3373.330.790.79
PepperdineWCC1.691.6944.8344.83-0.18-0.18
HarvardIvy1.671.6785.7185.711.191.19
Saint Joseph'sA101.671.6771.8871.880.730.73
St. Francis PANEC1.671.6733.3333.33-0.56-0.56
Utah ValleyWAC0.270.2762.0762.070.060.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.210.2157.1457.140.030.03
Washington St.P120.210.2130.0030.00-0.08-0.08
Air ForceMWC0.200.2035.7135.71-0.06-0.06
Saint Mary'sWCC0.200.2065.6265.620.060.06
Utah St.MWC0.200.2054.8454.840.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.200.2067.8667.860.070.07
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.200.2032.1432.14-0.07-0.07
DaytonA100.180.1869.7069.700.070.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.170.1730.3030.30-0.07-0.07
UNLVMWC0.170.1760.6160.610.040.04
BryantNEC0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
NevadaMWC0.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.170.1758.0658.060.030.03
Fresno St.MWC0.160.1648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.160.1667.6567.650.060.06
Arizona St.P120.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
Green BayHorz0.150.1577.7877.780.080.08
North DakotaBSky0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.140.1480.6580.650.090.09
Texas SouthernSWAC0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.140.1417.2417.24-0.09-0.09
Indiana St.MVC0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.130.1370.9770.970.060.06
ArizonaP120.130.1388.2488.240.100.10
WashingtonP120.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
UCLAP120.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
South Carolina St.MEAC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
MinnesotaB100.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
UMKCWAC0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
DrakeMVC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.120.1214.8114.81-0.08-0.08
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.120.1220.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Loyola MarymountWCC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.110.1162.0762.070.030.03
BradleyMVC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.110.1138.4638.46-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.1113.7913.79-0.08-0.08
UC RiversideBW0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
LipscombASun0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
USCP120.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Kansas St.B120.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Texas St.SB0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
Notre DameACC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
IowaB100.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
HowardMEAC0.090.0919.3519.35-0.05-0.05
LehighPat0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
CornellIvy0.080.083.703.70-0.08-0.08
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.080.0851.8551.850.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
NorthwesternB100.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.080.0828.5728.57-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
CreightonBE0.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
FordhamA100.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
BYUWCC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
UC DavisBW0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
VCUA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0624.0024.00-0.03-0.03
IdahoWAC0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
MontanaBSky0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
Texas TechB120.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.060.0651.8551.850.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
MissouriSEC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0683.8783.870.040.04
PrincetonIvy0.060.0670.3770.370.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
RiceCUSA0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
TulaneCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
PortlandWCC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
VermontAE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
StetsonASun0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
WagnerNEC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
DuquesneA100.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.030.0394.1294.120.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
ColgatePat0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
NavyPat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
TexasB120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0359.2659.260.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.033.573.57-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
SienaMAAC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02