Bryant

Conference:	NEC
Expected RPI:	158.0
Current RPI:	158
Expected SOS:	252
Current SOS:	252
Current Record:	19-11
Expected Record:	19-11
Current Conf Record:	12-7
Expected Conf Record:	12-7
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	8-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-2
Current OOC Record:	7-4
Expected OOC Record:	7-4
Expected OOC RPI:	149
Expected OOC SOS:	280

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
19-11	158.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bryant.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Indiana (8.0)	B10	A	97-54	L	0%
11-12	Providence (91.0)	BE	A	81-49	L	0%
11-17	New Hampshire (293.0)	AE	H	76-64	W	100%
11-21	Brown (241.0)	Ivy	A	61-68	W	100%
11-25	Boston College (113.0)	ACC	A	54-56	W	100%
12-1	Army (205.0)	Pat	H	70-59	W	100%
12-5	Yale (198.0)	Ivy	H	62-64	L	0%
12-8	Binghamton (336.0)	AE	H	78-56	W	100%
12-10	Navy (308.0)	Pat	A	69-59	L	0%
12-22	Dartmouth (294.0)	Ivy	H	79-66	W	100%
12-29	Lehigh (107.0)	Pat	A	79-80	W	100%
1-3	Robert Morris (132.0)	NEC	A	77-84	W	100%
1-5	St. Francis PA (322.0)	NEC	A	58-78	W	100%
1-10	Quinnipiac (191.0)	NEC	H	103-95	W	100%
1-12	Central Connecticut (200.0)	NEC	A	62-69	W	100%
1-17	Mount St. Mary's (121.0)	NEC	H	79-78	W	100%
1-19	Wagner (126.0)	NEC	H	82-59	W	100%
1-24	Sacred Heart (253.0)	NEC	A	87-76	L	0%
1-26	Long Island (179.0)	NEC	H	78-79	L	0%
1-31	Fairleigh Dickinson (299.0)	NEC	A	63-78	W	100%
2-2	Monmouth (282.0)	NEC	A	62-77	W	100%
2-7	St. Francis NY (207.0)	NEC	H	84-77	W	100%
2-14	Mount St. Mary's (121.0)	NEC	A	84-70	L	0%
2-16	Wagner (126.0)	NEC	A	89-75	L	0%
2-21	Central Connecticut (200.0)	NEC	H	88-67	W	100%
2-23	Quinnipiac (191.0)	NEC	A	69-58	L	0%
2-25	Sacred Heart (253.0)	NEC	H	84-68	W	100%
2-28	Robert Morris (132.0)	NEC	H	75-77	L	0%
3-2	St. Francis PA (322.0)	NEC	H	85-60	W	100%
3-6	Mount St. Mary's (121.0)	NEC	H	69-75	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bryant's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Bryant's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Bryant.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Bryant	NEC	26.31	26.31	64.49	64.49	7.63	7.63
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	5.81	5.81	55.17	55.17	0.60	0.60
Central Connecticut	NEC	4.28	4.28	46.43	46.43	-0.31	-0.31
Robert Morris	NEC	4.21	4.21	70.97	70.97	1.77	1.77
Sacred Heart	NEC	4.15	4.15	29.63	29.63	-1.69	-1.69
Quinnipiac	NEC	4.12	4.12	48.28	48.28	-0.14	-0.14
Wagner	NEC	4.11	4.11	62.07	62.07	0.99	0.99
St. Francis PA	NEC	4.09	4.09	18.52	18.52	-2.57	-2.57
Long Island	NEC	2.67	2.67	59.38	59.38	0.50	0.50
St. Francis NY	NEC	2.61	2.61	41.38	41.38	-0.45	-0.45
Monmouth	NEC	2.53	2.53	33.33	33.33	-0.84	-0.84
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	2.50	2.50	23.33	23.33	-1.33	-1.33
Lehigh	Pat	2.02	2.02	71.43	71.43	0.87	0.87
Brown	Ivy	2.01	2.01	46.15	46.15	-0.15	-0.15
Binghamton	AE	1.92	1.92	7.14	7.14	-1.64	-1.64
Navy	Pat	1.91	1.91	20.69	20.69	-1.12	-1.12
Yale	Ivy	1.91	1.91	39.29	39.29	-0.41	-0.41
Army	Pat	1.90	1.90	51.72	51.72	0.07	0.07
New Hampshire	AE	1.90	1.90	29.63	29.63	-0.77	-0.77
Dartmouth	Ivy	1.87	1.87	30.77	30.77	-0.72	-0.72
Indiana	B10	1.80	1.80	81.25	81.25	1.13	1.13
Boston College	ACC	1.78	1.78	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Providence	BE	1.72	1.72	53.33	53.33	0.11	0.11
Colgate	Pat	0.45	0.45	34.38	34.38	-0.14	-0.14
Lafayette	Pat	0.44	0.44	54.55	54.55	0.04	0.04
Hartford	AE	0.42	0.42	56.67	56.67	0.06	0.06
American	Pat	0.39	0.39	33.33	33.33	-0.13	-0.13
Holy Cross	Pat	0.37	0.37	40.00	40.00	-0.07	-0.07
Bucknell	Pat	0.31	0.31	84.38	84.38	0.21	0.21
Albany	AE	0.31	0.31	70.59	70.59	0.13	0.13
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.29	0.29	29.03	29.03	-0.12	-0.12
Stony Brook	AE	0.29	0.29	76.67	76.67	0.15	0.15
Vermont	AE	0.29	0.29	65.62	65.62	0.09	0.09
Cornell	Ivy	0.27	0.27	40.00	40.00	-0.05	-0.05
Maine	AE	0.26	0.26	34.48	34.48	-0.08	-0.08
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.25	0.25	23.33	23.33	-0.13	-0.13
Princeton	Ivy	0.23	0.23	59.26	59.26	0.04	0.04
Columbia	Ivy	0.23	0.23	38.46	38.46	-0.05	-0.05
Penn St.	B10	0.22	0.22	32.26	32.26	-0.08	-0.08
Harvard	Ivy	0.21	0.21	66.67	66.67	0.07	0.07
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.19	0.19	30.00	30.00	-0.08	-0.08
Syracuse	BE	0.19	0.19	74.29	74.29	0.09	0.09
Boston University	AE	0.17	0.17	58.62	58.62	0.03	0.03
Notre Dame	BE	0.14	0.14	73.53	73.53	0.07	0.07
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.14	0.14	48.00	48.00	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.14	0.14	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
George Washington	A10	0.14	0.14	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.13	0.13	75.00	75.00	0.07	0.07
Georgetown	BE	0.13	0.13	80.65	80.65	0.08	0.08
La Salle	A10	0.11	0.11	70.00	70.00	0.05	0.05
Fairfield	MAAC	0.11	0.11	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Fordham	A10	0.11	0.11	22.58	22.58	-0.06	-0.06
Hofstra	CAA	0.11	0.11	19.35	19.35	-0.06	-0.06
Hampton	MEAC	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.10	0.10	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Villanova	BE	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Seton Hall	BE	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Longwood	BSth	0.06	0.06	19.35	19.35	-0.04	-0.04
Rhode Island	A10	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.03	0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Elon	SC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	SB	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
St. Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	81.25	81.25	0.02	0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Texas Christian	B12	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
South Florida	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Butler	A10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Florida International	SB	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00