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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Bryant

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:341.0
Current RPI:341
Expected SOS:272
Current SOS:272
Current Record:3-28
Expected Record:3-28
Current Conf Record:2-16
Expected Conf Record:2-16
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-15
Current OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC RPI:326
Expected OOC SOS:226



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
3-28341.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bryant.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Georgia (79.0)SECA79-54L0%0.0
11-14North Carolina St. (64.0)ACCA95-72L0%0.0
11-18Navy (200.0)PatH71-79L0%0.0
11-21Rutgers (203.0)B10A83-54L0%0.0
11-24Hartford (198.0)AEA73-78W100%0.0
11-26Brown (298.0)IvyH67-81L0%0.0
11-29Yale (183.0)IvyA84-67L0%0.0
12-2New Hampshire (312.0)AEA75-59L0%0.0
12-6Albany (142.0)AEA84-68L0%0.0
12-9Memphis (106.0)AmerA90-72L0%0.0
12-11Louisville (38.0)ACCA102-59L0%0.0
12-17Siena (299.0)MAACH68-87L0%0.0
12-22Dartmouth (334.0)IvyA75-58L0%0.0
12-29Robert Morris (196.0)NECH54-68L0%0.0
12-31St. Francis PA (178.0)NECH82-86L0%0.0
1-4Mount St. Mary's (225.0)NECA96-80L0%0.0
1-6Sacred Heart (321.0)NECA74-79W100%0.0
1-11Wagner (109.0)NECH62-71L0%0.0
1-13Central Connecticut (263.0)NECA80-76L0%0.0
1-18LIU Brooklyn (232.0)NECA83-79L0%0.0
1-20St. Francis NY (276.0)NECA85-80L0%0.0
1-25Central Connecticut (263.0)NECH74-80L0%0.0
1-27Fairleigh Dickinson (254.0)NECH78-89L0%0.0
2-1St. Francis NY (276.0)NECH69-73L0%0.0
2-3LIU Brooklyn (232.0)NECH71-84L0%0.0
2-8Wagner (109.0)NECA96-76L0%0.0
2-10Mount St. Mary's (225.0)NECH79-77W100%0.0
2-15Robert Morris (196.0)NECA83-60L0%0.0
2-17St. Francis PA (178.0)NECA89-56L0%0.0
2-22Sacred Heart (321.0)NECH84-94L0%0.0
2-24Fairleigh Dickinson (254.0)NECA87-83L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bryant's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bryant's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bryant.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BryantNEC26.3026.3011.7211.72-20.13-20.13
LIU BrooklynNEC4.334.3348.3948.39-0.14-0.14
WagnerNEC4.254.2567.8667.861.521.52
Robert MorrisNEC4.244.2445.1645.16-0.41-0.41
Central ConnecticutNEC4.224.2240.0040.00-0.84-0.84
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC4.204.2033.3333.33-1.40-1.40
St. Francis NYNEC4.184.1833.3333.33-1.39-1.39
St. Francis PANEC4.154.1553.8553.850.320.32
Sacred HeartNEC4.134.1328.5728.57-1.77-1.77
Mount St. Mary'sNEC4.124.1253.5753.570.290.29
HartfordAE2.032.0360.0060.000.410.41
BrownIvy1.881.8836.0036.00-0.53-0.53
AlbanyAE1.851.8566.6766.670.620.62
DartmouthIvy1.841.8420.0020.00-1.10-1.10
New HampshireAE1.771.7725.0025.00-0.89-0.89
LouisvilleACC1.771.7759.3859.380.330.33
YaleIvy1.761.7648.2848.28-0.06-0.06
RutgersB101.741.7440.6240.62-0.33-0.33
SienaMAAC1.741.7422.5822.58-0.95-0.95
MemphisAmer1.691.6960.6160.610.360.36
North Carolina St.ACC1.691.6964.5264.520.490.49
NavyPat1.671.6760.0060.000.330.33
GeorgiaSEC1.611.6153.1253.120.100.10
UMass LowellAE0.400.4037.9337.93-0.10-0.10
Stony BrookAE0.350.3538.7138.71-0.08-0.08
MaineAE0.290.2913.3313.33-0.22-0.22
Holy CrossPat0.270.2738.7138.71-0.06-0.06
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.260.2643.7543.75-0.03-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.260.2631.0331.03-0.10-0.10
AmericanPat0.240.2420.0020.00-0.15-0.15
VermontAE0.240.2478.7978.790.140.14
Boston CollegeACC0.240.2455.8855.880.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.230.2342.8642.86-0.03-0.03
PennIvy0.230.2374.1974.190.110.11
ColumbiaIvy0.230.2326.9226.92-0.11-0.11
LehighPat0.220.2251.7251.720.010.01
Notre DameACC0.220.2257.5857.580.030.03
NJITASun0.210.2142.8642.86-0.03-0.03
UMBCAE0.190.1967.7467.740.070.07
FairfieldMAAC0.180.1851.5251.520.010.01
CornellIvy0.180.1840.7440.74-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.180.1856.6756.670.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.160.1636.3636.36-0.04-0.04
Loyola MDPat0.160.1626.6726.67-0.07-0.07
IonaMAAC0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
Seton HallBE0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
CanisiusMAAC0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.150.1515.6215.62-0.11-0.11
PittsburghACC0.150.1525.0025.00-0.08-0.08
RiderMAAC0.150.1570.9770.970.060.06
FordhamA100.130.1329.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Florida St.ACC0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
East CarolinaAmer0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
NorthwesternB100.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Penn St.B100.110.1161.7661.760.020.02
DuquesneA100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.100.1093.9493.940.090.09
Ohio St.B100.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
PurdueB100.100.1082.3582.350.060.06
TulaneAmer0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0884.8584.850.060.06
DenverSum0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
MarylandB100.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
ColgatePat0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
BucknellPat0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
FloridaSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Miami FLACC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0732.3532.35-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.070.0771.4371.430.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
IndianaB100.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
KentuckySEC0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Little RockSB0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
LSUSEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
South FloridaAmer0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
DaytonA100.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
North FloridaASun0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
WisconsinB100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
MinnesotaB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
TempleAmer0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
FurmanSC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0379.4179.410.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
VMISC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
George MasonA100.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0239.3939.39-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
MississippiSEC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0230.7730.77-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
HoustonAmer0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
MercerSC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
SamfordSC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
UABCUSA0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Wichita St.Amer0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01