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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Bryant

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:177.0
Current RPI:177
Expected SOS:240
Current SOS:240
Current Record:17-14
Expected Record:17-14
Current Conf Record:10-7
Expected Conf Record:10-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-4
Current OOC Record:7-7
Expected OOC Record:7-7
Expected OOC RPI:111
Expected OOC SOS:97



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-14177.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bryant.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Gonzaga (20.0)WCCA100-76L0%0.0
11-13Dartmouth (266.0)IvyA77-87W100%0.0
11-16Vermont (101.0)AEH87-64W100%0.0
11-20Harvard (46.0)IvyA86-68L0%0.0
11-24New Hampshire (340.0)AEA55-60W100%0.0
11-27Brown (229.0)IvyH70-67W100%0.0
12-4Yale (147.0)IvyA64-72W100%0.0
12-7North Dakota St. (35.0)SumH62-66L0%0.0
12-9Notre Dame (136.0)ACCA70-59L0%0.0
12-11Ohio St. (24.0)B10A86-48L0%0.0
12-14Navy (321.0)PatH90-80W100%0.0
12-21Delaware (65.0)CAAN108-107L0%0.0
12-28Binghamton (325.0)AEA67-62L0%0.0
12-30Lehigh (236.0)PatH70-68W100%0.0
1-9St. Francis PA (298.0)NECH77-67W100%0.0
1-11Robert Morris (129.0)NECH67-71L0%0.0
1-16Sacred Heart (338.0)NECH85-70W100%0.0
1-18Fairleigh Dickinson (269.0)NECA68-95W100%0.0
1-23LIU Brooklyn (297.0)NECH87-79W100%0.0
1-25St. Francis NY (190.0)NECH83-79W100%0.0
1-30Robert Morris (129.0)NECA79-76L0%0.0
2-2Sacred Heart (338.0)NECA67-76W100%0.0
2-6Central Connecticut (293.0)NECA68-79W100%0.0
2-8Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECH78-75W100%0.0
2-16Wagner (218.0)NECA73-61L0%0.0
2-20Fairleigh Dickinson (269.0)NECH52-63L0%0.0
2-22Central Connecticut (293.0)NECH68-65W100%0.0
2-24Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECA88-73L0%0.0
2-27St. Francis NY (190.0)NECA62-59L0%0.0
3-1LIU Brooklyn (297.0)NECA62-81W100%0.0
3-5St. Francis PA (298.0)NECH54-55L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bryant's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bryant's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bryant.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BryantNEC26.2526.2556.8356.833.593.59
Robert MorrisNEC4.104.1059.3859.380.770.77
Mount St. Mary'sNEC4.074.0750.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis PANEC4.074.0731.0331.03-1.54-1.54
Central ConnecticutNEC4.054.0537.0437.04-1.05-1.05
Sacred HeartNEC4.024.0217.2417.24-2.64-2.64
St. Francis NYNEC3.993.9955.1755.170.410.41
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC3.953.9529.6329.63-1.61-1.61
LIU BrooklynNEC3.933.9333.3333.33-1.31-1.31
WagnerNEC2.542.5458.6258.620.440.44
BrownIvy1.951.9553.8553.850.150.15
YaleIvy1.951.9553.8553.850.150.15
New HampshireAE1.951.9517.8617.86-1.25-1.25
VermontAE1.871.8768.9768.970.710.71
DartmouthIvy1.841.8440.0040.00-0.37-0.37
BinghamtonAE1.831.8320.6920.69-1.07-1.07
LehighPat1.831.8345.1645.16-0.18-0.18
HarvardIvy1.821.8285.7185.711.301.30
Ohio St.B101.751.7572.7372.730.790.79
NavyPat1.741.7428.5728.57-0.75-0.75
DelawareCAA1.741.7472.7372.730.790.79
Notre DameACC1.691.6945.1645.16-0.16-0.16
North Dakota St.Sum1.691.6977.7877.780.940.94
GonzagaWCC1.611.6181.2581.251.011.01
HartfordAE0.410.4151.5251.520.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.340.3460.0060.000.070.07
CornellIvy0.340.343.703.70-0.32-0.32
LafayettePat0.310.3133.3333.33-0.10-0.10
UMBCAE0.290.2927.5927.59-0.13-0.13
PrincetonIvy0.290.2970.3770.370.120.12
HofstraCAA0.290.2930.3030.30-0.11-0.11
Stony BrookAE0.270.2768.7568.750.100.10
PennIvy0.260.2628.5728.57-0.11-0.11
AmericanPat0.260.2662.5062.500.070.07
AlbanyAE0.250.2556.2556.250.030.03
NJITind0.240.2436.0036.00-0.07-0.07
Holy CrossPat0.240.2459.3859.380.040.04
UMass LowellAE0.220.2233.3333.33-0.07-0.07
ColgatePat0.210.2140.0040.00-0.04-0.04
BucknellPat0.210.2153.3353.330.010.01
ArmyPat0.210.2146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.190.1917.8617.86-0.12-0.12
Boston UniversityPat0.190.1970.5970.590.080.08
Loyola MDPat0.180.1834.4834.48-0.06-0.06
Santa ClaraWCC0.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
DenverSum0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
FordhamA100.160.1632.2632.26-0.06-0.06
NortheasternCAA0.150.1534.3834.38-0.05-0.05
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
Boston CollegeACC0.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
DaytonA100.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
IowaB100.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
DuquesneA100.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
BYUWCC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
IPFWSum0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
Seton HallBE0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
SyracuseACC0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
DrexelCAA0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Michigan St.B100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
ProvidenceBE0.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
RutgersAmer0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
IllinoisB100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
VirginiaACC0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Miami FLACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
West VirginiaB120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.070.0764.2964.290.020.02
VillanovaBE0.070.0787.5087.500.060.06
MinnesotaB100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
NebraskaB100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
St. John'sBE0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.060.0688.2488.240.040.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
TempleAmer0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
StetsonASun0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Texas TechB120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
MarylandACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
MichiganB100.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MercerASun0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.2121.21-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0377.7877.780.020.02
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
La SalleA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
MemphisAmer0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
LibertyBSth0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0234.6234.62-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
RichmondA100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
WisconsinB100.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
WyomingMWC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00