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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Bryant

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:320.0
Current RPI:320
Expected SOS:283
Current SOS:283
Current Record:7-23
Expected Record:7-23
Current Conf Record:5-13
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-13
Current OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC RPI:280
Expected OOC SOS:138



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-23320.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bryant.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Duke (20.0)ACCA113-75L0%0.0
11-20Prairie View A&M (334.0)SWACH71-58W100%0.0
11-21Siena (104.0)MAACH59-78L0%0.0
11-25Harvard (193.0)IvyA80-45L0%0.0
11-28Georgetown (106.0)BEA77-47L0%0.0
11-30New Hampshire (177.0)AEA75-67L0%0.0
12-2Yale (44.0)IvyA79-40L0%0.0
12-5Brown (312.0)IvyH68-76L0%0.0
12-8Army (214.0)PatH55-77L0%0.0
12-12Providence (40.0)BEA74-67L0%0.0
12-23Michigan (56.0)B10A96-60L0%0.0
12-31Dartmouth (284.0)IvyA60-62W100%0.0
1-2Central Connecticut (351.0)NECH88-72W100%0.0
1-4Fairleigh Dickinson (205.0)NECA80-85W100%0.0
1-7Wagner (185.0)NECA65-56L0%0.0
1-9Mount St. Mary's (245.0)NECA79-82W100%0.0
1-14St. Francis NY (276.0)NECH61-59W100%0.0
1-16LIU Brooklyn (254.0)NECH61-79L0%0.0
1-21St. Francis PA (266.0)NECH65-71L0%0.0
1-23Robert Morris (291.0)NECH54-65L0%0.0
1-28Central Connecticut (351.0)NECA78-67L0%0.0
1-30Sacred Heart (258.0)NECA72-71L0%0.0
2-4St. Francis PA (266.0)NECA63-57L0%0.0
2-6Robert Morris (291.0)NECA89-71L0%0.0
2-11Fairleigh Dickinson (205.0)NECH77-91L0%0.0
2-13Wagner (185.0)NECH55-79L0%0.0
2-18Sacred Heart (258.0)NECH57-74L0%0.0
2-20Mount St. Mary's (245.0)NECH53-71L0%0.0
2-25St. Francis NY (276.0)NECA79-72L0%0.0
2-27LIU Brooklyn (254.0)NECA83-88W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bryant's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bryant's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bryant.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BryantNEC26.3126.3125.3425.34-12.97-12.97
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC4.394.3955.1755.170.450.45
WagnerNEC4.364.3665.5265.521.351.35
LIU BrooklynNEC4.344.3451.7251.720.150.15
Mount St. Mary'sNEC4.324.3241.9441.94-0.70-0.70
Sacred HeartNEC4.284.2835.7135.71-1.22-1.22
Robert MorrisNEC4.264.2626.6726.67-1.99-1.99
Central ConnecticutNEC4.264.2611.1111.11-3.31-3.31
St. Francis NYNEC4.254.2544.8344.83-0.44-0.44
St. Francis PANEC4.254.2537.0437.04-1.10-1.10
YaleIvy1.991.9976.9276.921.071.07
BrownIvy1.991.9923.0823.08-1.07-1.07
DartmouthIvy1.931.9334.6234.62-0.59-0.59
HarvardIvy1.881.8840.7440.74-0.35-0.35
ProvidenceBE1.781.7868.7568.750.670.67
GeorgetownBE1.771.7743.7543.75-0.22-0.22
DukeACC1.751.7568.7568.750.660.66
New HampshireAE1.731.7357.1457.140.250.25
ArmyPat1.721.7256.6756.670.230.23
SienaMAAC1.691.6962.5062.500.420.42
MichiganB101.671.6762.5062.500.420.42
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.671.6723.3323.33-0.89-0.89
PennIvy0.350.3537.0437.04-0.09-0.09
HartfordAE0.310.3128.1228.12-0.14-0.14
MaineAE0.310.3126.6726.67-0.15-0.15
PrincetonIvy0.300.3077.7877.780.170.17
ColumbiaIvy0.300.3065.5265.520.090.09
BinghamtonAE0.280.2826.6726.67-0.13-0.13
UMass LowellAE0.280.2835.7135.71-0.08-0.08
CornellIvy0.270.2733.3333.33-0.09-0.09
LehighPat0.240.2451.6151.610.010.01
AmericanPat0.240.2438.7138.71-0.06-0.06
Holy CrossPat0.230.2342.4242.42-0.03-0.03
AlbanyAE0.220.2274.1974.190.110.11
FairfieldMAAC0.220.2259.3859.380.040.04
Boston CollegeACC0.220.2221.8821.88-0.12-0.12
LafayettePat0.220.2220.0020.00-0.13-0.13
St. John'sBE0.210.2122.5822.58-0.11-0.11
VillanovaBE0.210.2185.2985.290.140.14
VermontAE0.200.2060.6160.610.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.190.1970.5970.590.080.08
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.190.1946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.190.1975.7675.760.100.10
MarylandB100.180.1875.0075.000.090.09
Loyola MDPat0.180.1830.0030.00-0.07-0.07
BucknellPat0.180.1855.1755.170.020.02
NJITASun0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
FordhamA100.160.1655.1755.170.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.160.1679.4179.410.090.09
MaristMAAC0.140.1423.3323.33-0.07-0.07
RutgersB100.140.1419.3519.35-0.08-0.08
NiagaraMAAC0.140.1421.8821.88-0.08-0.08
ManhattanMAAC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.130.1339.3939.39-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.130.1367.7467.740.040.04
DePaulBE0.130.1329.0329.03-0.05-0.05
XavierBE0.130.1384.3884.380.090.09
SMUAmer0.120.1283.3383.330.080.08
Boston UniversityPat0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
DuquesneA100.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
MassachusettsA100.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
UMBCAE0.110.1121.8821.88-0.06-0.06
NorthwesternB100.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.1122.8622.86-0.06-0.06
LouisvilleACC0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
WisconsinB100.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
CreightonBE0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
ElonCAA0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.080.0844.1244.12-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
IonaMAAC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Ohio St.B100.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
PurdueB100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Kent St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.060.0680.0080.000.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0556.0056.000.010.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
NavyPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
TempleAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
IowaB100.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
MinnesotaB100.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Penn St.B100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
SyracuseACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
USCP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
OklahomaB120.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
TCUB120.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0335.2935.29-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
ArizonaP120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
TexasB120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
UtahP120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00