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Through games of Jan 20, 2017.


Bryant

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:292.0
Current RPI:300
Expected SOS:271
Current SOS:202
Current Record:4-15
Expected Record:10-20
Current Conf Record:2-5
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-12
Current OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC RPI:256
Expected OOC SOS:50



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-15209.70.10%
14-16226.90.83%
13-17243.74.65%
12-18261.512.04%
11-19278.921.63%
10-20295.624.91%
9-21309.720.62%
8-22321.010.31%
7-23329.23.96%
6-24335.40.87%
5-25339.10.07%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bryant.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Notre Dame (22.7)ACCA89-64L0%0.0
11-18Gonzaga (6.3)WCCA109-70L0%0.0
11-21Eastern Washington (183.0)BSkyA81-77L0%0.0
11-22Louisiana Monroe (275.6)SBN64-57W100%0.0
11-25Northwestern (43.1)B10A86-66L0%0.0
11-28Brown (268.5)IvyA91-90L0%0.0
11-30Yale (110.9)IvyH79-70W100%0.0
12-3Ohio (99.5)MACA79-53L0%0.0
12-6Navy (220.9)PatA76-74L0%0.0
12-10New Hampshire (147.6)AEH73-86L0%0.0
12-22Dartmouth (309.6)IvyH69-75L0%0.0
12-29St. Francis NY (341.1)NECA80-77L0%0.0
12-31LIU Brooklyn (221.9)NECA74-63L0%0.0
1-5Mount St. Mary's (178.8)NECH72-71W100%0.0
1-7Fairleigh Dickinson (227.3)NECA87-84L0%0.0
1-12Wagner (259.6)NECH77-66W100%0.0
1-14Sacred Heart (301.8)NECH110-112L0%0.0
1-16Harvard (139.0)IvyH65-70L0%0.0
1-19St. Francis PA (276.1)NECA75-61L0%0.0
1-21Robert Morris (266.4)NECA0-040%-2.7
1-25Central Connecticut (347.0)NECA0-068%5.1
1-28Fairleigh Dickinson (227.3)NECH0-056%1.8
2-2Mount St. Mary's (178.8)NECA0-026%-7.2
2-4Sacred Heart (301.8)NECA0-048%-0.5
2-9LIU Brooklyn (221.9)NECH0-054%1.1
2-11St. Francis NY (341.1)NECH0-080%9.4
2-16Robert Morris (266.4)NECH0-062%3.5
2-18St. Francis PA (276.1)NECH0-058%2.1
2-23Wagner (259.6)NECA0-030%-5.8
2-25Central Connecticut (347.0)NECH0-084%11.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bryant's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bryant's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bryant.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BryantNEC26.4926.3818.6732.63-16.60-9.16
Central ConnecticutNEC0.594.3011.1115.71-0.46-2.95
Sacred HeartNEC3.014.2836.8438.39-0.79-0.99
LIU BrooklynNEC3.024.2761.1159.910.670.85
St. Francis NYNEC3.004.2711.1117.69-2.33-2.76
Mount St. Mary'sNEC3.004.2542.1150.95-0.470.08
Robert MorrisNEC0.444.2535.0039.14-0.13-0.92
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC2.934.2437.5044.93-0.73-0.43
St. Francis PANEC2.984.2431.2542.05-1.12-0.67
WagnerNEC2.914.2340.0048.63-0.58-0.12
BrownIvy2.791.9743.7540.79-0.35-0.36
YaleIvy2.771.9764.2968.350.790.72
DartmouthIvy2.891.9415.3820.10-2.00-1.16
HarvardIvy2.731.8554.5559.960.250.37
NorthwesternB102.781.7277.7868.131.540.62
New HampshireAE2.731.7053.3356.560.180.22
Eastern WashingtonBSky2.701.6956.2558.840.340.30
Notre DameACC2.701.6983.3375.761.800.87
GonzagaWCC2.631.67100.0097.232.631.57
Louisiana MonroeSB2.631.6726.6729.41-1.23-0.69
NavyPat2.631.6741.1844.70-0.46-0.18
OhioMAC2.631.6764.2966.350.750.54
PennIvy0.240.3942.8647.98-0.03-0.02
HartfordAE0.390.3230.0028.54-0.16-0.14
UMass LowellAE0.220.2940.0040.47-0.04-0.06
ColumbiaIvy0.070.2846.1546.15-0.01-0.02
LehighPat0.300.2652.9463.420.020.07
CornellIvy0.000.2520.0024.53-0.00-0.13
PrincetonIvy0.170.2560.0066.110.030.08
MaineAE0.320.2420.0020.95-0.19-0.14
AmericanPat0.240.2127.7830.73-0.11-0.08
FordhamA100.250.2038.8935.26-0.06-0.06
Loyola MDPat0.280.1947.0646.22-0.02-0.01
AlbanyAE0.320.1852.6358.980.020.03
BinghamtonAE0.160.1835.2937.32-0.05-0.05
ProvidenceBE0.310.1865.0055.280.090.02
Holy CrossPat0.330.1850.0051.660.000.01
ArmyPat0.150.1738.8942.65-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.270.1747.3734.50-0.01-0.05
RutgersB100.150.1755.5642.900.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.080.1747.3741.47-0.00-0.03
VirginiaACC0.160.1782.3576.300.100.09
LafayettePat0.210.1729.4123.71-0.09-0.09
BucknellPat0.140.1670.0071.890.060.07
VermontAE0.370.1675.0077.360.190.09
Stony BrookAE0.240.1555.5654.430.030.01
FairfieldMAAC0.240.1547.0649.89-0.01-0.00
UMBCAE0.140.1462.5058.830.030.03
Boston UniversityPat0.220.1450.0053.030.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.220.1455.5656.750.020.02
MinnesotaB100.200.1478.9570.150.120.05
Seton HallBE0.080.1266.6758.230.030.02
Ohio St.B100.150.1263.1658.020.040.02
BuffaloMAC0.090.1137.5044.96-0.02-0.01
TowsonCAA0.080.1152.6354.610.000.01
SeattleWAC0.310.1140.0037.08-0.06-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.140.1147.3745.83-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.1168.7570.270.020.05
MassachusettsA100.190.1063.1660.390.050.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.160.0937.5044.55-0.04-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.170.0925.0023.83-0.09-0.05
CincinnatiAmer0.150.0988.8986.560.120.07
IonaMAAC0.170.0960.0063.140.030.02
NJITASun0.150.0938.8942.49-0.03-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.180.0963.1659.530.050.02
AkronMAC0.160.0983.3376.940.110.05
San FranciscoWCC0.150.0963.1660.550.040.02
NiagaraMAAC0.150.0926.3227.72-0.07-0.04
West VirginiaB120.150.0883.3380.700.100.05
ColgatePat0.140.0821.0527.27-0.08-0.04
ColoradoP120.230.0850.0052.890.000.00
TexasB120.230.0838.8935.38-0.05-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.090.0861.1147.020.02-0.00
ArizonaP120.140.0889.4784.510.110.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.150.0822.2225.60-0.08-0.04
Iowa St.B120.140.0864.7161.830.040.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0831.2538.34-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0868.4252.190.030.00
DePaulBE0.070.0842.1130.39-0.01-0.03
MichiganB100.070.0863.1658.150.020.01
PurdueB100.070.0878.9576.890.040.04
TempleAmer0.170.0650.0053.120.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0635.2941.77-0.02-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0675.0074.450.040.03
RiderMAAC0.080.0657.8952.960.010.00
WashingtonP120.160.0650.0043.390.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.170.0631.5829.24-0.06-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.170.0664.7167.120.050.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0635.2935.14-0.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0653.3356.530.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.090.0647.0648.10-0.01-0.00
LipscombASun0.080.0644.4450.48-0.010.00
MarquetteBE0.080.0666.6761.530.030.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0637.5034.55-0.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.080.0666.6762.870.030.02
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0652.9451.020.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0631.2536.88-0.03-0.02
PittsburghACC0.160.0663.1651.610.040.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.150.0642.1141.75-0.02-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0664.7165.930.020.02
BYUWCC0.000.0670.0068.710.000.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0662.5060.090.020.01
Georgia St.SB0.080.0653.3355.990.010.01
IdahoBSky0.080.0640.0044.98-0.02-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0612.5022.04-0.06-0.03
Little RockSB0.080.0656.2551.110.010.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0662.5062.710.020.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0647.0644.32-0.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.080.0650.0058.290.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.080.0633.3340.46-0.03-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0616.6720.43-0.05-0.03
PacificWCC0.070.0636.8435.66-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0688.8987.310.060.04
San DiegoWCC0.000.0650.0043.680.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0611.7618.03-0.00-0.04
Texas St.SB0.000.0653.3345.980.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.080.0650.0061.630.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.070.0622.2221.17-0.04-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.0611.1122.97-0.11-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0660.0061.270.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0623.0830.70-0.04-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0635.0036.31-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0660.0072.810.010.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0625.0031.85-0.03-0.02
St. John'sBE0.070.0645.0038.54-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0633.3333.28-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.070.0577.7870.290.040.02
Chicago St.WAC0.140.0516.6718.29-0.09-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.070.0589.4779.540.050.03
George MasonA100.070.0564.7156.510.020.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0526.6740.16-0.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.070.0542.1143.49-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0568.4264.610.000.02
IowaB100.140.0555.0049.300.01-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0577.7862.260.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.070.0584.2179.280.050.03
NebraskaB100.070.0547.0641.67-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0518.7535.73-0.04-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0572.2274.630.000.03
RichmondA100.000.0561.1157.870.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0552.6347.720.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.070.0561.1155.580.020.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0536.8433.59-0.00-0.02
IllinoisB100.000.0561.1153.360.000.00
George WashingtonA100.110.0352.6348.070.01-0.00
HoustonAmer0.110.0368.4268.060.040.01
HowardMEAC0.110.0312.5028.49-0.08-0.01
StanfordP120.110.0355.5648.060.01-0.00
DelawareCAA0.090.0333.3330.90-0.03-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0328.5734.62-0.04-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0353.3361.620.010.01
DetroitHorz0.080.0316.6723.07-0.05-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0361.1162.280.020.01
WinthropBSth0.080.0375.0075.420.040.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0364.7156.100.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0356.2551.810.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.0326.3232.63-0.04-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.090.0355.5660.070.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0326.3228.81-0.04-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0360.0053.460.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0362.5063.260.020.01
SouthernSWAC0.090.0337.5051.21-0.020.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0331.5833.34-0.03-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0352.9452.870.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0347.3745.06-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0328.5731.47-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0375.0074.870.040.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0343.7543.71-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0373.6869.690.030.01
DenverSum0.080.0357.8955.950.010.00
FloridaSEC0.070.0377.7874.930.040.01
FurmanSC0.070.0352.9458.360.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0325.0029.54-0.04-0.01
High PointBSth0.070.0337.5042.27-0.02-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0352.6352.920.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0335.2941.48-0.02-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0350.0057.040.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0364.7162.600.020.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0355.5656.000.010.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0325.0034.04-0.04-0.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0347.0640.46-0.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0357.1457.210.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0320.0024.21-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0358.8264.380.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0343.7541.41-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.070.0355.0054.820.010.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0340.0051.38-0.020.00
TennesseeSEC0.070.0347.0648.42-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.0347.0648.13-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0370.5964.080.030.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0340.0044.67-0.01-0.00
VCUA100.080.0373.6870.630.040.01
XavierBE0.080.0372.2267.680.030.01
ButlerBE0.070.0384.2178.340.050.02
ClemsonACC0.070.0361.1159.230.020.00
DaytonA100.070.0376.4776.940.040.01
DukeACC0.000.0377.7873.860.000.01
Fort WayneSum0.070.0364.7166.910.020.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0328.5741.77-0.03-0.00
IUPUISum0.070.0338.8943.16-0.02-0.00
MarylandB100.000.0388.8973.830.000.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0370.5960.550.030.01
Michigan St.B100.070.0363.1657.700.020.00
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0350.0052.970.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0384.2180.600.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.030.0014.44-0.07-0.02
Penn St.B100.070.0357.8949.820.01-0.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0357.8952.520.000.00
VillanovaBE0.070.0394.7489.270.060.02
Virginia TechACC0.070.0377.7862.530.040.01
WisconsinB100.000.0383.3381.320.000.02