Bryant

Conference:	NEC
Expected RPI:	334.0
Current RPI:	340
Expected SOS:	260
Current SOS:	271
Current Record:	2-22
Expected Record:	3-27
Current Conf Record:	1-11
Expected Conf Record:	2-16
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	3-13
Current OOC Record:	1-11
Expected OOC Record:	1-11
Expected OOC RPI:	336
Expected OOC SOS:	273

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
7-23	305.0	0.06%
6-24	314.2	1.07%
5-25	323.7	8.24%
4-26	331.3	27.93%
3-27	335.9	41.22%
2-28	338.9	21.47%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bryant.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	San Diego St. (26.6)	MWC	A	75-63	L	0%	0.0
11-12	UC Davis (342.2)	BW	N	63-70	W	100%	0.0
11-13	Southern Utah (231.1)	Sum	N	95-78	L	0%	0.0
11-19	Dartmouth (320.3)	Ivy	A	66-62	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Army (293.1)	Pat	A	69-65	L	0%	0.0
11-27	Notre Dame (66.5)	BE	A	84-59	L	0%	0.0
12-1	Central Connecticut (236.3)	NEC	H	51-83	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Quinnipiac (175.1)	NEC	A	83-72	L	0%	0.0
12-7	Yale (117.5)	Ivy	A	76-59	L	0%	0.0
12-10	Providence (146.8)	BE	A	72-61	L	0%	0.0
12-18	Boston College (248.2)	ACC	A	75-55	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Arizona (75.8)	P12	A	100-60	L	0%	0.0
12-31	Lehigh (109.7)	Pat	H	55-72	L	0%	0.0
1-5	Robert Morris (111.2)	NEC	H	53-84	L	0%	0.0
1-7	St. Francis PA (303.9)	NEC	H	59-56	W	100%	0.0
1-12	Wagner (83.5)	NEC	A	78-61	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Mount St. Mary's (291.1)	NEC	A	64-60	L	0%	0.0
1-19	Central Connecticut (236.3)	NEC	A	69-51	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Quinnipiac (175.1)	NEC	H	71-78	L	0%	0.0
1-23	Brown (305.2)	Ivy	H	60-67	L	0%	0.0
1-26	Fairleigh Dickinson (323.4)	NEC	H	63-66	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Monmouth (275.8)	NEC	H	68-78	L	0%	0.0
2-2	Long Island (107.1)	NEC	A	75-70	L	0%	0.0
2-4	St. Francis NY (188.7)	NEC	A	80-67	L	0%	0.0
2-8	Sacred Heart (242.3)	NEC	H	0-0		30%	-5.6
2-11	Sacred Heart (242.3)	NEC	A	0-0		13%	-12.3
2-16	St. Francis PA (303.9)	NEC	A	0-0		28%	-6.5
2-18	Robert Morris (111.2)	NEC	A	0-0		3%	-20.3
2-23	Wagner (83.5)	NEC	H	0-0		5%	-18.0
2-25	Mount St. Mary's (291.1)	NEC	H	0-0		47%	-0.9

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bryant's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Bryant's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Bryant.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Bryant	NEC	26.30	26.25	7.69	10.21	-22.25	-20.89
Central Connecticut	NEC	4.67	4.21	40.00	41.52	-0.93	-0.71
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.92	4.19	44.00	43.65	-0.11	-0.53
Quinnipiac	NEC	4.62	4.13	52.38	53.98	0.22	0.33
St. Francis PA	NEC	2.67	4.09	22.73	21.76	-1.45	-2.31
Robert Morris	NEC	2.62	4.07	66.67	68.07	0.87	1.47
Wagner	NEC	2.67	4.04	81.82	83.61	1.70	2.72
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	2.62	4.01	22.73	25.05	-1.43	-2.00
St. Francis NY	NEC	2.72	2.51	54.55	54.37	0.25	0.22
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	2.71	2.51	4.55	9.00	-2.47	-2.06
Monmouth	NEC	2.67	2.49	25.00	26.54	-1.33	-1.17
Long Island	NEC	2.62	2.46	69.57	70.05	1.03	0.99
Brown	Ivy	2.48	1.98	23.81	21.17	-1.30	-1.14
Yale	Ivy	2.46	1.98	70.59	61.72	1.01	0.46
Lehigh	Pat	2.36	1.93	72.73	74.02	1.07	0.93
Army	Pat	2.38	1.87	38.10	39.56	-0.57	-0.39
Dartmouth	Ivy	2.28	1.84	10.00	14.22	-1.82	-1.32
Providence	BE	2.22	1.78	54.55	48.61	0.20	-0.05
Notre Dame	BE	2.13	1.78	63.64	61.41	0.58	0.41
UC Davis	BW	2.23	1.76	0.00	5.56	-2.23	-1.56
Southern Utah	Sum	2.23	1.75	42.86	42.16	-0.32	-0.27
San Diego St.	MWC	2.22	1.75	85.00	77.24	1.56	0.96
Boston College	ACC	2.13	1.75	27.27	23.90	-0.97	-0.91
Arizona	P12	2.13	1.70	65.22	67.51	0.65	0.59
Lafayette	Pat	0.36	0.40	43.48	42.95	-0.05	-0.06
American	Pat	0.32	0.32	65.22	63.79	0.10	0.09
Colgate	Pat	0.32	0.29	30.43	29.50	-0.13	-0.12
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.19	0.29	54.55	56.84	0.02	0.04
Hartford	AE	0.34	0.29	17.39	20.97	-0.22	-0.17
Holy Cross	Pat	0.34	0.29	40.91	42.05	-0.06	-0.05
Navy	Pat	0.27	0.26	9.52	13.19	-0.22	-0.19
Princeton	Ivy	0.15	0.23	47.37	52.87	-0.01	0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.14	0.23	55.00	54.80	0.01	0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.29	0.23	90.48	87.91	0.24	0.18
Pittsburgh	BE	0.22	0.22	60.87	58.16	0.05	0.04
Cornell	Ivy	0.09	0.21	36.84	41.45	-0.02	-0.04
Bucknell	Pat	0.23	0.20	73.91	75.00	0.11	0.10
Albany	AE	0.27	0.20	60.00	60.42	0.05	0.04
Rutgers	BE	0.18	0.19	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.01
Vermont	AE	0.29	0.17	60.00	62.49	0.06	0.04
Niagara	MAAC	0.23	0.17	37.50	41.54	-0.06	-0.03
New Hampshire	AE	0.19	0.16	35.00	38.58	-0.06	-0.04
Air Force	MWC	0.14	0.15	47.37	42.16	-0.01	-0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.19	0.15	42.86	39.66	-0.03	-0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.23	0.14	73.91	68.58	0.11	0.05
La Salle	A10	0.18	0.14	70.83	68.82	0.08	0.05
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.18	0.14	21.74	24.58	-0.10	-0.07
Connecticut	BE	0.14	0.14	68.18	63.99	0.05	0.04
St. John's	BE	0.18	0.14	43.48	40.28	-0.02	-0.03
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.18	0.12	33.33	38.38	-0.06	-0.03
Longwood	ind	0.19	0.12	30.00	27.84	-0.08	-0.05
Seton Hall	BE	0.19	0.11	65.22	63.74	0.06	0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.20	0.11	20.83	20.60	-0.11	-0.07
Hofstra	CAA	0.13	0.11	32.00	35.39	-0.05	-0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.13	0.11	41.67	38.67	-0.02	-0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.09	0.11	59.09	50.82	0.02	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.14	0.11	79.17	75.98	0.08	0.06
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.09	0.11	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.09	0.11	66.67	68.05	0.03	0.04
Hampton	MEAC	0.04	0.11	36.36	38.48	-0.01	-0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.14	0.09	35.00	35.31	-0.04	-0.03
Oakland	Sum	0.09	0.09	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.14	0.09	76.19	72.91	0.07	0.04
Wake Forest	ACC	0.10	0.09	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.09	0.09	81.82	81.03	0.06	0.05
Long Beach St.	BW	0.10	0.09	71.43	73.35	0.04	0.04
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.10	0.09	55.56	58.01	0.01	0.01
Boston University	AE	0.14	0.09	48.00	51.88	-0.01	0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.09	0.08	35.29	39.85	-0.03	-0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.14	0.08	54.55	54.30	0.01	0.01
Southern California	P12	0.09	0.08	25.00	25.13	-0.05	-0.04
Louisville	BE	0.14	0.08	78.26	72.66	0.08	0.04
UCLA	P12	0.09	0.08	54.55	56.79	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.08	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.09	0.08	59.09	56.35	0.02	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.08	80.95	77.38	0.03	0.04
Rider	MAAC	0.08	0.08	37.50	38.52	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	BE	0.09	0.08	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.14	0.08	95.83	92.01	0.12	0.07
Villanova	BE	0.04	0.08	45.45	46.08	-0.00	-0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.00	0.08	65.22	65.17	0.00	0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.05	0.06	34.78	35.50	-0.01	-0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.09	0.06	34.78	35.20	-0.03	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.06	61.90	63.52	0.02	0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.06	80.77	80.75	0.03	0.04
South Dakota	Sum	0.09	0.06	26.32	28.83	-0.04	-0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.06	73.91	75.49	0.05	0.03
Troy	SB	0.09	0.06	28.57	30.17	-0.04	-0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.06	52.63	48.41	0.00	-0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.06	42.86	41.13	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.06	66.67	60.80	0.02	0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.09	0.06	13.64	16.35	-0.07	-0.04
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.06	82.61	81.44	0.03	0.04
Northwestern	B10	0.09	0.06	61.90	55.14	0.02	0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.06	57.14	49.54	0.01	-0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.06	76.19	70.73	0.03	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.10	0.06	82.61	77.63	0.07	0.03
Elon	SC	0.10	0.06	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.06	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.05	0.06	65.00	66.70	0.01	0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.05	0.06	21.05	22.46	-0.03	-0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.06	79.17	78.10	0.03	0.03
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.06	77.27	73.45	0.02	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.06	69.57	61.31	0.02	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.06	38.89	43.93	-0.01	-0.01
Pacific	BW	0.05	0.06	35.00	37.47	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.06	28.57	26.30	-0.02	-0.03
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.06	45.45	45.55	-0.00	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.06	60.00	59.06	0.01	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.10	0.06	35.00	35.26	-0.03	-0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.06	80.00	78.06	0.03	0.03
California	P12	0.09	0.06	75.00	74.61	0.05	0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.09	0.06	68.18	69.68	0.03	0.02
Fordham	A10	0.09	0.06	40.91	34.50	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.09	0.06	73.91	68.43	0.04	0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.04	0.06	13.64	16.14	-0.03	-0.04
Stanford	P12	0.09	0.06	69.57	68.29	0.04	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.06	39.13	42.12	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.06	65.00	60.02	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.09	0.06	70.83	64.42	0.04	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.09	0.05	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.09	0.05	76.00	72.50	0.05	0.02
Maine	AE	0.09	0.05	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.09	0.05	86.96	83.16	0.06	0.04
Arizona St.	P12	0.04	0.05	30.43	31.43	-0.02	-0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	69.57	65.47	0.02	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.04	0.05	81.82	80.43	0.03	0.03
Colorado	P12	0.04	0.05	66.67	62.65	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.00	0.05	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.09	0.05	81.82	81.49	0.06	0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.04	0.05	40.00	40.18	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.00	0.05	43.48	43.82	-0.00	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.04	0.05	54.17	54.75	0.00	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.04	0.05	69.57	71.51	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.04	0.05	81.82	77.20	0.03	0.03
Richmond	A10	0.00	0.05	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Utah	P12	0.04	0.05	18.18	15.01	-0.03	-0.04
Washington	P12	0.04	0.05	69.57	66.54	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.04	0.05	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	80.00	76.84	0.03	0.02
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.03	90.91	83.85	0.04	0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.03	0.00	4.02	-0.05	-0.03
Chicago St.	GWC	0.05	0.03	4.76	9.95	-0.04	-0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.03	87.50	85.41	0.04	0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.03	34.78	33.43	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.03	40.91	43.66	-0.01	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.03	33.33	33.82	-0.02	-0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.03	19.05	24.61	-0.03	-0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.03	9.52	11.44	-0.04	-0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	28.57	34.20	-0.02	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.03	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.05	0.03	40.91	44.03	-0.01	-0.00
Hawaii	WAC	0.05	0.03	57.14	53.12	0.01	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.03	18.18	22.22	-0.03	-0.02
Idaho	WAC	0.05	0.03	47.62	51.08	-0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.03	27.27	27.21	-0.02	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.03	20.00	19.96	-0.03	-0.02
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	30.00	33.20	-0.02	-0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.03	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.00
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	27.27	26.95	-0.02	-0.01
Seattle	ind	0.00	0.03	23.53	33.28	-0.00	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.03	12.50	13.44	-0.03	-0.02
Duke	ACC	0.00	0.03	86.36	83.09	0.00	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.00	0.03	72.73	71.71	0.00	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.04	0.03	79.17	80.10	0.03	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.03	54.17	49.44	0.00	-0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.03	68.00	69.07	0.02	0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.04	0.03	60.00	58.29	0.01	0.00
Radford	BSth	0.04	0.03	8.70	13.10	-0.04	-0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	77.67	0.02	0.02
Texas St.	Slnd	0.04	0.03	22.22	27.62	-0.02	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.03	81.82	76.80	0.03	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.04	0.03	55.00	57.41	0.00	0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.03	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.03	19.05	22.37	-0.03	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	41.20	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.03	75.00	75.78	0.02	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.04	0.03	78.26	72.34	0.02	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.00
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.03	91.30	87.18	0.04	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.04	0.03	69.57	68.90	0.02	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.03	62.50	61.50	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.04	0.03	69.57	64.53	0.02	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.04	0.03	63.64	63.16	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	26.32	29.79	-0.02	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.03	40.91	39.56	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.03	45.00	46.13	-0.00	-0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.04	0.03	65.22	63.61	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.04	0.03	69.57	65.87	0.02	0.01