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Through games of Feb 5, 2016.


Bryant

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:312.7
Current RPI:315
Expected SOS:283
Current SOS:293
Current Record:6-17
Expected Record:8-22
Current Conf Record:4-7
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-13
Current OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC RPI:278
Expected OOC SOS:146



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-17256.00.01%
12-18262.70.41%
11-19278.03.26%
10-20293.512.50%
9-21306.425.74%
8-22317.431.70%
7-23326.121.15%
6-24332.65.22%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bryant.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Duke (20.3)ACCA113-75L0%0.0
11-20Prairie View A&M (345.4)SWACH71-58W100%0.0
11-21Siena (87.2)MAACH59-78L0%0.0
11-25Harvard (195.2)IvyA80-45L0%0.0
11-28Georgetown (68.9)BEA77-47L0%0.0
11-30New Hampshire (205.6)AEA75-67L0%0.0
12-2Yale (59.5)IvyA79-40L0%0.0
12-5Brown (288.3)IvyH68-76L0%0.0
12-8Army (209.5)PatH55-77L0%0.0
12-12Providence (41.1)BEA74-67L0%0.0
12-23Michigan (41.1)B10A96-60L0%0.0
12-31Dartmouth (290.3)IvyA60-62W100%0.0
1-2Central Connecticut (350.2)NECH88-72W100%0.0
1-4Fairleigh Dickinson (213.6)NECA80-85W100%0.0
1-7Wagner (197.3)NECA65-56L0%0.0
1-9Mount St. Mary's (225.9)NECA79-82W100%0.0
1-14St. Francis NY (289.6)NECH61-59W100%0.0
1-16LIU Brooklyn (274.6)NECH61-79L0%0.0
1-21St. Francis PA (239.3)NECH65-71L0%0.0
1-23Robert Morris (304.7)NECH54-65L0%0.0
1-28Central Connecticut (350.2)NECA78-67L0%0.0
1-30Sacred Heart (283.7)NECA72-71L0%0.0
2-4St. Francis PA (239.3)NECA63-57L0%0.0
2-6Robert Morris (304.7)NECA0-029%-6.2
2-11Fairleigh Dickinson (213.6)NECH0-040%-2.9
2-13Wagner (197.3)NECH0-028%-6.5
2-18Sacred Heart (283.7)NECH0-054%1.0
2-20Mount St. Mary's (225.9)NECH0-033%-4.9
2-25St. Francis NY (289.6)NECA0-022%-8.4
2-27LIU Brooklyn (274.6)NECA0-023%-8.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bryant's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bryant's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bryant.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BryantNEC26.3826.3728.5728.65-11.31-11.26
Central ConnecticutNEC4.964.3110.0011.12-3.97-3.35
LIU BrooklynNEC2.824.2847.6248.07-0.13-0.16
Sacred HeartNEC2.834.2828.5732.34-1.21-1.51
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC2.874.2755.0055.640.290.48
Mount St. Mary'sNEC2.774.2543.4847.77-0.36-0.19
Robert MorrisNEC2.824.2521.7425.65-1.59-2.07
St. Francis NYNEC2.774.2536.3641.78-0.76-0.70
St. Francis PANEC4.844.2442.1145.45-0.76-0.39
WagnerNEC2.764.2460.0061.600.550.98
BrownIvy2.551.9929.4129.21-1.05-0.83
YaleIvy2.491.9970.5972.751.030.91
DartmouthIvy2.391.9435.2933.24-0.70-0.65
HarvardIvy2.341.8833.3339.28-0.78-0.40
ProvidenceBE2.341.7877.2771.031.280.75
GeorgetownBE2.331.7854.5551.910.210.07
DukeACC2.331.7571.4368.921.000.66
New HampshireAE2.291.7350.0049.640.00-0.01
ArmyPat2.231.7352.3854.450.110.15
SienaMAAC2.221.6965.2266.200.680.55
MichiganB102.171.6771.4366.870.930.56
Prairie View A&MSWAC2.171.675.0014.49-1.96-1.18
PennIvy0.330.3635.2934.69-0.10-0.11
MaineAE0.430.3336.3635.58-0.12-0.09
HartfordAE0.420.3226.0926.47-0.20-0.15
PrincetonIvy0.230.3070.5974.500.090.15
ColumbiaIvy0.220.3065.0064.310.070.09
UMass LowellAE0.310.2933.3332.88-0.10-0.10
CornellIvy0.220.2744.4441.14-0.02-0.05
BinghamtonAE0.350.2622.7326.19-0.19-0.12
AmericanPat0.310.2631.8232.71-0.11-0.09
LehighPat0.300.2630.0036.08-0.12-0.07
AlbanyAE0.310.2373.9175.010.150.12
FairfieldMAAC0.270.2352.1752.980.010.01
LafayettePat0.250.2323.8125.26-0.13-0.11
Boston CollegeACC0.360.2331.8226.61-0.13-0.11
St. John'sBE0.190.2227.2724.41-0.09-0.11
Holy CrossPat0.270.2140.9139.70-0.05-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.300.2072.7372.440.140.09
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.250.2038.1041.92-0.06-0.03
Seton HallBE0.160.2072.7368.630.070.07
MarylandB100.250.2086.9681.770.180.12
Loyola MDPat0.190.2031.8234.36-0.07-0.06
BucknellPat0.230.1952.3856.770.010.03
VermontAE0.280.1856.5258.380.040.03
FordhamA100.200.1757.8954.300.030.01
NJITASun0.260.1752.1754.520.010.02
MonmouthMAAC0.240.1779.1780.770.140.10
VillanovaBE0.150.1786.3685.330.110.12
RutgersB100.200.1422.7320.68-0.11-0.08
MaristMAAC0.220.1419.0521.40-0.13-0.08
NiagaraMAAC0.200.1425.0025.48-0.10-0.07
RiderMAAC0.140.1441.6743.51-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.140.1490.9184.430.120.09
SMUAmer0.230.1290.4885.550.180.09
Boston UniversityPat0.160.1252.1754.400.010.01
TowsonCAA0.100.1263.6457.330.030.02
UMBCAE0.100.1220.8325.01-0.06-0.06
MassachusettsA100.150.1142.8639.84-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.150.1166.6758.760.050.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.090.1138.1037.53-0.02-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.050.1181.8277.490.030.06
ManhattanMAAC0.140.1145.0043.19-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1117.3921.76-0.06-0.06
WisconsinB100.140.1160.8755.900.030.01
ElonCAA0.140.1154.5553.020.010.01
ButlerBE0.140.1168.1866.490.050.04
CreightonBE0.140.1160.8759.050.030.02
DePaulBE0.140.1136.3634.95-0.04-0.03
MarquetteBE0.090.1165.2256.530.030.01
ColgatePat0.110.0942.8643.53-0.02-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.150.0927.2732.84-0.07-0.03
Notre DameACC0.150.0968.1863.720.060.02
IllinoisB100.160.0947.8344.51-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0966.6763.480.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.110.0841.6743.85-0.02-0.01
HofstraCAA0.090.0868.1865.420.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.0821.7424.60-0.06-0.04
Air ForceMWC0.090.0842.8635.05-0.01-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.0852.1749.340.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0858.3354.120.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0831.8233.75-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.140.0852.3853.620.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.060.0680.0082.460.030.04
DelawareCAA0.050.0622.7323.64-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.050.0636.3635.33-0.01-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.100.0666.6761.680.030.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0621.0529.16-0.03-0.02
TempleAmer0.050.0661.9058.420.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.110.0654.5555.990.010.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0642.8645.93-0.01-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0653.3355.180.000.01
NavyPat0.050.0665.2265.230.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0626.3236.93-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0647.3750.51-0.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0635.2944.50-0.02-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0626.3233.83-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0633.3334.18-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0616.6720.71-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.050.0681.8279.900.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0650.0056.540.000.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0631.8232.92-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0626.0927.81-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.100.0652.1751.560.000.00
North FloridaASun0.050.0668.1869.350.020.02
Penn St.B100.100.0647.8343.63-0.00-0.01
PurdueB100.050.0682.6178.230.030.03
Saint LouisA100.050.0638.1033.38-0.01-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0663.1666.150.010.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0647.6257.27-0.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.100.0536.3642.19-0.03-0.01
IndianaB100.100.0582.6177.370.060.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0582.6181.380.030.03
VCUA100.100.0577.2776.780.060.03
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0573.9173.090.020.02
FurmanSC0.050.0554.5553.780.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0560.0056.080.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0577.2776.130.020.03
IonaMAAC0.000.0559.0959.680.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0569.5768.670.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0563.6468.210.010.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.0586.3680.660.000.03
OaklandHorz0.050.0566.6767.310.020.02
SyracuseACC0.100.0566.6762.710.030.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0566.6765.410.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0545.4542.14-0.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.050.0568.1862.190.020.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0333.3333.55-0.02-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0328.5734.73-0.03-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0365.0067.510.020.01
LongwoodBSth0.060.0319.0522.35-0.04-0.02
StanfordP120.060.0352.6347.690.00-0.00
USCP120.060.0378.2673.130.030.01
AuburnSEC0.060.0342.8637.19-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.060.0369.5773.030.020.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0340.0042.53-0.01-0.00
KansasB120.060.0380.9577.000.040.02
NortheasternCAA0.060.0347.8348.69-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.060.0390.4884.890.050.02
WoffordSC0.060.0338.1043.35-0.01-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0342.8647.27-0.01-0.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0377.2771.670.030.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0350.0048.260.00-0.00
BaylorB120.050.0376.1967.350.030.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0310.0014.87-0.04-0.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0372.7368.010.020.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0355.5650.840.010.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0375.0072.220.030.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0330.0032.46-0.02-0.01
TCUB120.050.0345.4537.84-0.00-0.01
TexasB120.050.0368.1861.780.020.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0341.1840.28-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0333.3332.41-0.02-0.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0352.3857.440.000.00
ArizonaP120.050.0378.2677.230.030.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0357.1457.510.010.00
ClemsonACC0.050.0363.6462.340.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0373.9176.040.020.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0368.1863.250.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0336.8437.30-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0354.5552.750.000.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0372.7369.690.020.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0342.8651.33-0.010.00
Miami FLACC0.050.0380.9575.640.030.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0380.0070.290.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0370.0069.070.020.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0363.6465.480.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0375.0071.280.020.01
UtahP120.050.0372.7368.550.020.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0347.3749.38-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.000.0381.8276.020.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0352.1747.250.00-0.00