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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Bryant

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:189.0
Current RPI:189
Expected SOS:227
Current SOS:227
Current Record:16-15
Expected Record:16-15
Current Conf Record:13-7
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-4
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:204
Expected OOC SOS:86



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-15189.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bryant.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Connecticut (77.0)AmerA66-53L0%0.0
11-20New Hampshire (193.0)AEH72-63W100%0.0
11-26Vermont (203.0)AEA73-47L0%0.0
11-30Akron (115.0)MACA72-66L0%0.0
12-3Yale (64.0)IvyH60-67L0%0.0
12-6Brown (248.0)IvyA69-62L0%0.0
12-9Army (235.0)PatA73-80W100%0.0
12-21Denver (232.0)SumA46-48W100%0.0
12-31Dartmouth (186.0)IvyH59-76L0%0.0
1-3LIU Brooklyn (256.0)NECA63-67W100%0.0
1-5St. Francis NY (170.0)NECA63-47L0%0.0
1-8St. Francis PA (179.0)NECH80-54W100%0.0
1-10Fairleigh Dickinson (312.0)NECH73-60W100%0.0
1-15Wagner (294.0)NECH81-73W100%0.0
1-17Central Connecticut (342.0)NECA54-70W100%0.0
1-20Harvard (52.0)IvyH57-66L0%0.0
1-22LIU Brooklyn (256.0)NECH74-69W100%0.0
1-24Sacred Heart (242.0)NECH66-83L0%0.0
1-29St. Francis PA (179.0)NECA75-68L0%0.0
1-31Robert Morris (171.0)NECA68-71W100%0.0
2-2Pittsburgh (76.0)ACCA72-67L0%0.0
2-5Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECH55-53W100%0.0
2-7Sacred Heart (242.0)NECA84-75L0%0.0
2-12Fairleigh Dickinson (312.0)NECA71-74W100%0.0
2-14Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECA75-68L0%0.0
2-19Wagner (294.0)NECA65-66W100%0.0
2-21Robert Morris (171.0)NECH70-76L0%0.0
2-26Central Connecticut (342.0)NECH77-69W100%0.0
2-28St. Francis NY (170.0)NECH61-51W100%0.0
3-4Sacred Heart (242.0)NECH91-85W100%0.0
3-7Robert Morris (171.0)NECA66-53L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bryant's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bryant's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bryant.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BryantNEC26.5026.5053.9053.902.072.07
Robert MorrisNEC5.855.8556.6756.670.780.78
Sacred HeartNEC5.825.8242.8642.86-0.83-0.83
St. Francis NYNEC4.394.3967.7467.741.561.56
LIU BrooklynNEC4.284.2842.8642.86-0.61-0.61
St. Francis PANEC4.274.2750.0050.000.000.00
WagnerNEC4.274.2733.3333.33-1.42-1.42
Central ConnecticutNEC4.234.2317.2417.24-2.77-2.77
Mount St. Mary'sNEC4.234.2350.0050.000.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC4.164.1626.9226.92-1.92-1.92
YaleIvy1.941.9465.5265.520.600.60
BrownIvy1.941.9435.7135.71-0.55-0.55
New HampshireAE1.911.9160.7160.710.410.41
DartmouthIvy1.841.8448.1548.15-0.07-0.07
HarvardIvy1.831.8373.0873.080.850.85
VermontAE1.811.8155.1755.170.190.19
ConnecticutAmer1.691.6957.5857.580.260.26
ArmyPat1.661.6650.0050.000.000.00
AkronMAC1.611.6157.5857.580.240.24
DenverSum1.611.6141.3841.38-0.28-0.28
PittsburghACC1.611.6154.8454.840.160.16
ColumbiaIvy0.410.4144.4444.44-0.05-0.05
LafayettePat0.350.3561.2961.290.080.08
HartfordAE0.320.3244.8344.83-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.280.2851.7251.720.010.01
PennIvy0.280.2832.1432.14-0.10-0.10
MaineAE0.280.2810.0010.00-0.22-0.22
RutgersB100.270.2731.2531.25-0.10-0.10
NJITind0.260.2656.0056.000.030.03
UMass LowellAE0.240.2439.2939.29-0.05-0.05
CornellIvy0.230.2341.3841.38-0.04-0.04
AlbanyAE0.220.2275.0075.000.110.11
Holy CrossPat0.220.2244.8344.83-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.210.2113.3313.33-0.16-0.16
AmericanPat0.190.1951.5251.520.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.190.1916.6716.67-0.13-0.13
Stony BrookAE0.190.1965.6265.620.060.06
CincinnatiAmer0.180.1868.7568.750.070.07
Saint Joseph'sA100.170.1741.9441.94-0.03-0.03
LehighPat0.160.1651.7251.720.010.01
ColgatePat0.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
DelawareCAA0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
MonmouthMAAC0.160.1654.5554.550.010.01
DuquesneA100.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
NavyPat0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.140.1485.2985.290.100.10
GeorgetownBE0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
ToledoMAC0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
Boston UniversityPat0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
TowsonCAA0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
BucknellPat0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
RiderMAAC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.1070.0070.000.040.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
TempleAmer0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
East CarolinaAmer0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
ClemsonACC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.100.1068.5768.570.040.04
Kent St.MAC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.0947.0647.06-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
USCP120.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Ohio St.B100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
TexasB120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
BradleyMVC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.070.0781.2581.250.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
VirginiaACC0.060.0690.6290.620.040.04
ProvidenceBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
ArizonaP120.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
FIUCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
FloridaSEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
VMISC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.9190.910.020.02
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
WyomingMWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
IndianaB100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0271.4371.430.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0227.2727.27-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0252.9452.940.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UCFAmer0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01