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Through games of Nov 25, 2014.


Bryant

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:166.4
Current RPI:111
Expected SOS:233
Current SOS:94
Current Record:1-1
Expected Record:16-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-6
Current OOC Record:1-1
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:131
Expected OOC SOS:27



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-553.30.06%
23-657.60.14%
22-770.80.66%
21-885.01.75%
20-998.84.22%
19-10114.37.82%
18-11129.712.00%
17-12146.115.72%
16-13164.216.43%
15-14184.015.65%
14-15203.111.46%
13-16223.37.10%
12-17244.54.25%
11-18262.61.82%
10-19278.30.65%
9-20296.30.21%
8-21303.80.04%
7-22331.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bryant.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Connecticut (24.9)AmerA66-53L0%0.0
11-20New Hampshire (238.3)AEH72-63W100%0.0
11-26Vermont (161.9)AEA0-033%-5.3
11-30Akron (94.2)MACA0-019%-10.5
12-3Yale (74.8)IvyH0-038%-3.5
12-6Brown (243.5)IvyA0-047%-1.0
12-9Army (124.1)PatA0-027%-7.4
12-21Denver (111.6)SumA0-022%-9.4
12-31Dartmouth (275.1)IvyH0-075%8.3
1-3LIU Brooklyn (272.6)NECA0-053%1.0
1-5St. Francis NY (241.7)NECA0-044%-1.7
1-8St. Francis PA (253.6)NECH0-074%7.9
1-10Fairleigh Dickinson (290.8)NECH0-081%10.7
1-15Wagner (246.4)NECH0-074%7.8
1-17Central Connecticut (319.9)NECA0-065%4.7
1-20Harvard (53.1)IvyH0-025%-7.9
1-22LIU Brooklyn (272.6)NECH0-075%8.2
1-24Sacred Heart (305.7)NECH0-084%12.1
1-29St. Francis PA (253.6)NECA0-052%0.7
1-31Robert Morris (258.1)NECA0-053%1.0
2-2Pittsburgh (101.0)ACCA0-014%-12.7
2-5Mount St. Mary's (261.9)NECH0-078%9.1
2-7Sacred Heart (305.7)NECA0-066%5.0
2-12Fairleigh Dickinson (290.8)NECA0-061%3.5
2-14Mount St. Mary's (261.9)NECA0-056%1.9
2-19Wagner (246.4)NECA0-052%0.6
2-21Robert Morris (258.1)NECH0-075%8.1
2-26Central Connecticut (319.9)NECH0-084%11.9
2-28St. Francis NY (241.7)NECH0-068%5.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bryant's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bryant's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bryant.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BryantNEC32.2926.4150.0058.160.004.31
Sacred HeartNEC0.004.5033.3334.06-0.00-1.43
Central ConnecticutNEC0.004.470.0030.76-0.00-1.72
LIU BrooklynNEC0.004.460.0045.58-0.00-0.39
St. Francis NYNEC0.004.430.0050.77-0.000.07
WagnerNEC0.004.430.0044.14-0.00-0.52
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.004.4033.3341.00-0.00-0.79
Robert MorrisNEC0.004.4025.0044.09-0.00-0.52
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.004.4033.3338.09-0.00-1.05
St. Francis PANEC0.004.4025.0045.42-0.00-0.40
BrownIvy0.002.0620.0038.25-0.00-0.48
YaleIvy0.002.0375.0065.740.000.64
New HampshireAE25.002.0250.0051.590.000.06
DartmouthIvy0.001.970.0036.69-0.00-0.53
VermontAE0.001.9433.3357.77-0.000.30
HarvardIvy0.001.9466.6774.270.000.94
ConnecticutAmer25.001.8166.6769.288.330.70
ArmyPat0.001.78100.0069.240.000.69
AkronMAC0.001.7260.0065.480.000.53
DenverSum0.001.7266.6766.160.000.56
PittsburghACC0.001.7250.0049.070.00-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.000.4675.0064.500.000.13
LafayettePat0.000.3375.0065.570.000.10
PennIvy0.000.310.0025.91-0.00-0.15
PrincetonIvy0.000.3125.0039.42-0.00-0.07
MaineAE0.000.310.0017.58-0.00-0.20
HartfordAE0.000.3080.0051.980.000.01
NJITind0.000.3020.0028.08-0.00-0.13
RutgersB100.000.2750.0024.400.00-0.14
CornellIvy0.000.2533.3336.17-0.00-0.07
UMass LowellAE0.000.2460.0042.550.00-0.04
AlbanyAE0.000.2233.3361.54-0.000.05
BinghamtonAE0.000.220.0024.20-0.00-0.11
AmericanPat0.000.2160.0057.160.000.03
Holy CrossPat0.000.21100.0066.730.000.07
UMBCAE0.000.210.0028.76-0.00-0.09
Stony BrookAE0.000.1850.0066.080.000.06
LehighPat0.000.180.0035.78-0.00-0.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1860.0037.460.00-0.05
CincinnatiAmer0.000.18100.0059.140.000.03
HofstraCAA0.000.1860.0066.760.000.06
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1850.0053.310.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.150.0018.08-0.00-0.10
ColgatePat0.000.1525.0039.71-0.00-0.03
DuquesneA100.000.15100.0055.470.000.02
Notre DameACC0.000.1580.0071.450.000.06
Boston UniversityPat4.170.1325.0055.20-2.080.01
NavyPat0.000.1220.0031.41-0.00-0.05
Boston CollegeACC4.170.1240.0038.71-0.83-0.03
BucknellPat0.000.1233.3336.66-0.00-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.000.1240.0028.76-0.00-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1214.2929.93-0.00-0.05
St. John'sBE0.000.12100.0052.030.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.12100.0057.240.000.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.1225.0047.03-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.12100.0072.100.000.05
RiderMAAC0.000.1250.0047.880.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.000.1280.0058.000.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.1275.0064.660.000.03
TempleAmer0.000.1260.0049.930.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.1240.0060.63-0.000.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1133.3333.84-0.00-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.090.0038.35-0.00-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0920.0042.26-0.00-0.01
USCP120.000.0950.0028.900.00-0.04
TexasB120.000.09100.0080.120.000.05
IPFWSum0.000.0966.6761.780.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0966.6753.920.000.01
DukeACC0.000.09100.0084.950.000.06
ClemsonACC0.000.0960.0052.120.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.09100.0069.870.000.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0950.0046.130.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0960.0047.180.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0925.0025.51-0.00-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0027.54-0.00-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.000.0975.0064.740.000.03
HoustonAmer0.000.0666.6760.350.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0075.610.000.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0069.080.000.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0650.0055.650.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0044.550.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0683.3348.030.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0675.0052.460.000.00
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0075.900.000.03
BradleyMVC0.000.0650.0030.030.00-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.060.0046.09-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0633.3346.11-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0650.0043.100.00-0.01
IUPUISum0.000.0640.0031.23-0.00-0.02
La SalleA100.000.06100.0056.940.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0625.0029.87-0.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0650.0049.860.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0680.0074.570.000.03
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0625.0036.61-0.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0065.620.000.02
South DakotaSum0.000.060.0038.43-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0633.3353.25-0.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0633.3349.98-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0640.0038.29-0.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0666.6771.550.000.03
StanfordP120.000.0680.0070.420.000.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0062.250.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.060.0031.79-0.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0640.0039.52-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0675.0047.770.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0079.500.000.03
MemphisAmer0.000.0650.0067.350.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.06100.0081.280.000.04
Miami OHMAC0.000.0650.0030.040.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0666.6752.600.000.00
Ohio St.B100.000.06100.0074.680.000.03
SMUAmer0.000.0640.0066.55-0.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0675.0054.260.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0680.0067.890.000.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0666.6738.430.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0675.0059.380.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0620.0030.80-0.00-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0640.0033.22-0.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0360.0054.250.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0340.0047.31-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0380.0060.610.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.03100.0072.230.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0333.3345.79-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0032.36-0.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0366.6755.870.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0065.710.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0375.0044.920.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0325.0031.38-0.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0325.0020.71-0.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.000.030.0031.98-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0333.3353.13-0.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.03100.0043.950.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0060.980.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0375.0047.410.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0333.3359.03-0.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0057.70-0.000.00
VMISC0.000.0333.3338.23-0.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0375.0071.930.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0065.600.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.030.0028.60-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0320.0031.41-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0036.60-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0073.990.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0071.500.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0340.0047.10-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0052.850.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0067.780.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0316.6731.76-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0333.3346.41-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0053.790.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA3.120.0340.0052.47-0.620.00
DaytonA103.120.0375.0071.681.560.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0051.400.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.03100.0079.080.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.03100.0049.350.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0366.6754.720.000.00
IndianaB100.000.0380.0058.080.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0325.0049.91-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0366.6749.780.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0366.6749.540.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0333.3329.06-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0061.980.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0320.0029.38-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0340.0040.15-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.03100.0087.570.000.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0340.0050.32-0.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.03100.0048.890.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0350.0031.510.00-0.01
West VirginiaB123.120.03100.0070.283.120.01