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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Yale

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:128.0
Current RPI:128
Expected SOS:206
Current SOS:206
Current Record:17-11
Expected Record:17-11
Current Conf Record:10-6
Expected Conf Record:10-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-2
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:128
Expected OOC SOS:236



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-11128.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Yale.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Washington (211.0)P12A90-98W100%0.0
11-17Lehigh (97.0)PatH89-81W100%0.0
11-20Virginia (18.0)ACCA62-38L0%0.0
11-22Pittsburgh (74.0)ACCA75-70L0%0.0
11-26Vermont (46.0)AEA67-65L0%0.0
11-30Bryant (285.0)NECA79-70L0%0.0
12-3Albany (129.0)AEH59-55W100%0.0
12-8Sacred Heart (304.0)NECA52-66W100%0.0
12-11Delaware (235.0)CAAH81-63W100%0.0
12-13Central Connecticut (344.0)NECH90-59W100%0.0
12-22Temple (137.0)AmerA83-77L0%0.0
1-2Hartford (327.0)AEH88-72W100%0.0
1-13Penn (203.0)IvyA60-68W100%0.0
1-14Princeton (47.0)IvyA66-58L0%0.0
1-20Brown (284.0)IvyA74-75W100%0.0
1-27Brown (284.0)IvyH85-75W100%0.0
2-3Columbia (262.0)IvyA78-87W100%0.0
2-5Cornell (270.0)IvyA71-78W100%0.0
2-10Dartmouth (305.0)IvyH73-64W100%0.0
2-11Harvard (143.0)IvyH67-75L0%0.0
2-17Princeton (47.0)IvyH52-71L0%0.0
2-19Penn (203.0)IvyH55-71L0%0.0
2-24Harvard (143.0)IvyA77-64L0%0.0
2-25Dartmouth (305.0)IvyA86-99W100%0.0
3-3Cornell (270.0)IvyH90-63W100%0.0
3-4Columbia (262.0)IvyH75-71W100%0.0
3-11Harvard (143.0)IvyN71-73W100%0.0
3-12Princeton (47.0)IvyN71-59L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Yale's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Yale's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Yale.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
YaleIvy26.5926.5963.2863.287.067.06
PrincetonIvy6.316.3176.0076.003.283.28
HarvardIvy6.266.2660.8760.871.361.36
PennIvy4.654.6546.1546.15-0.36-0.36
BrownIvy4.584.5842.3142.31-0.70-0.70
DartmouthIvy4.574.5728.0028.00-2.01-2.01
CornellIvy4.524.5226.9226.92-2.09-2.09
ColumbiaIvy4.514.5141.6741.67-0.75-0.75
AlbanyAE2.152.1562.5062.500.540.54
BryantNEC2.142.1433.3333.33-0.71-0.71
VermontAE2.092.0984.3884.381.441.44
Central ConnecticutNEC2.052.0521.4321.43-1.17-1.17
HartfordAE2.052.0529.0329.03-0.86-0.86
Sacred HeartNEC1.931.9341.9441.94-0.31-0.31
LehighPat1.881.8863.3363.330.500.50
PittsburghACC1.871.8746.8846.88-0.12-0.12
VirginiaACC1.871.8767.7467.740.660.66
TempleAmer1.851.8548.3948.39-0.06-0.06
DelawareCAA1.791.7936.6736.67-0.48-0.48
WashingtonP121.791.7930.0030.00-0.71-0.71
MaineAE0.420.4219.3519.35-0.26-0.26
Stony BrookAE0.350.3558.0658.060.060.06
New HampshireAE0.310.3158.6258.620.050.05
LafayettePat0.310.3127.5927.59-0.14-0.14
Robert MorrisNEC0.300.3042.4242.42-0.04-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.290.2910.0010.00-0.23-0.23
UMass LowellAE0.290.2933.3333.33-0.10-0.10
Boston CollegeACC0.280.2828.1228.12-0.12-0.12
LIU BrooklynNEC0.270.2761.2961.290.060.06
BinghamtonAE0.260.2631.0331.03-0.10-0.10
Saint Joseph'sA100.260.2635.4835.48-0.07-0.07
NortheasternCAA0.250.2548.3948.39-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.250.2548.3948.39-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.250.2529.0329.03-0.10-0.10
St. Francis PANEC0.230.2348.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.230.2355.8855.880.030.03
HoustonAmer0.220.2267.7467.740.080.08
Holy CrossPat0.220.2246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.210.2125.0025.00-0.11-0.11
HofstraCAA0.210.2145.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.190.1965.6265.620.060.06
QuinnipiacMAAC0.190.1932.2632.26-0.07-0.07
BucknellPat0.180.1876.4776.470.100.10
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.170.1734.4834.48-0.05-0.05
WagnerNEC0.170.1751.7251.720.010.01
HowardMEAC0.170.1725.0025.00-0.09-0.09
UMBCAE0.160.1657.1457.140.020.02
FordhamA100.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.160.1681.8281.820.100.10
FairfieldMAAC0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
CaliforniaP120.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
USCP120.150.1572.7372.730.070.07
DrexelCAA0.150.1525.8125.81-0.07-0.07
La SalleA100.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.150.1585.2985.290.100.10
SyracuseACC0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
StanfordP120.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
MassachusettsA100.130.1345.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
Seton HallBE0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
ArmyPat0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
UCFAmer0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
VillanovaBE0.120.1291.1891.180.100.10
ProvidenceBE0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
SienaMAAC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Notre DameACC0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
East CarolinaAmer0.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.110.1175.0075.000.050.05
North CarolinaACC0.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
SMUAmer0.110.1188.2488.240.080.08
BYUWCC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
VCUA100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0930.3030.30-0.04-0.04
NJITASun0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.090.0984.3884.380.060.06
ArizonaP120.090.0988.2488.240.070.07
South FloridaAmer0.080.0823.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Florida St.ACC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0767.8667.860.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0761.2961.290.010.01
George MasonA100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
WyomingMWC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
RutgersB100.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
ColoradoP120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
ElonCAA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.060.0696.9796.970.050.05
James MadisonCAA0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
TowsonCAA0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
UCLAP120.060.0687.8887.880.040.04
UtahP120.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Washington St.P120.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
TulaneAmer0.060.0619.3519.35-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
ClemsonACC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
DukeACC0.050.0577.1477.140.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
OregonP120.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Oregon St.P120.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
DePaulBE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TulsaAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ButlerBE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00