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Through games of Nov 21, 2014.


Yale

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:110.8
Current RPI:205
Expected SOS:166
Current SOS:241
Current Record:1-1
Expected Record:17-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-3
Current OOC Record:1-1
Expected OOC Record:7-8
Expected OOC RPI:82
Expected OOC SOS:77



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-526.50.06%
23-631.80.29%
22-739.80.87%
21-848.52.82%
20-959.06.01%
19-1072.210.53%
18-1185.814.52%
17-12101.717.25%
16-13118.217.38%
15-14137.413.29%
14-15156.78.93%
13-16174.94.93%
12-17198.02.06%
11-18216.90.79%
10-19231.30.19%
9-20252.40.07%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Yale.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Quinnipiac (175.3)MAACA89-85L0%0.0
11-21Illinois Chicago (269.4)HorzN70-58W100%0.0
11-22Southern Illinois (172.8)MVCN0-058%2.5
11-23Kent St. (90.3)MACA0-034%-5.0
11-26Lafayette (123.1)PatH0-063%4.0
11-28Providence (45.4)BEA0-019%-10.8
11-30Hartford (289.9)AEH0-090%15.1
12-3Bryant (177.9)NECA0-054%1.3
12-5Connecticut (16.2)AmerA0-012%-14.4
12-8Florida (33.8)SECA0-012%-14.2
12-18Vermont (131.0)AEA0-041%-2.8
12-20Albany (149.1)AEH0-067%5.3
12-30Sacred Heart (302.5)NECA0-075%8.2
1-3Vanderbilt (149.5)SECA0-036%-4.5
1-9NJIT (306.5)indA0-080%10.3
1-17Brown (266.4)IvyA0-065%4.6
1-24Brown (266.4)IvyH0-084%11.8
1-30Columbia (133.3)IvyA0-039%-3.3
1-31Cornell (256.3)IvyA0-063%4.0
2-6Dartmouth (300.8)IvyH0-088%14.4
2-7Harvard (76.8)IvyH0-049%-0.3
2-13Penn (309.7)IvyA0-075%8.0
2-14Princeton (210.5)IvyA0-053%0.9
2-20Cornell (256.3)IvyH0-083%11.2
2-21Columbia (133.3)IvyH0-063%3.9
2-27Princeton (210.5)IvyH0-075%8.1
2-28Penn (309.7)IvyH0-090%15.1
3-6Harvard (76.8)IvyA0-027%-7.5
3-7Dartmouth (300.8)IvyA0-073%7.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Yale's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Yale's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Yale.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
YaleIvy35.4226.3362.5063.558.857.14
DartmouthIvy0.004.330.0034.46-0.00-1.35
BrownIvy0.004.2933.3339.37-0.00-0.91
PennIvy0.004.270.0025.85-0.00-2.06
HarvardIvy0.004.2650.0067.280.001.47
PrincetonIvy0.004.2333.3350.82-0.000.07
ColumbiaIvy0.004.2350.0061.930.001.01
CornellIvy0.004.2140.0042.75-0.00-0.61
VermontAE0.002.0350.0066.270.000.66
BryantNEC0.002.0350.0054.860.000.20
AlbanyAE0.001.9750.0065.060.000.59
HartfordAE0.001.9766.6739.680.00-0.41
LafayettePat0.001.9166.6763.850.000.53
Sacred HeartNEC0.001.9150.0037.260.00-0.49
NJITind0.001.8833.3329.20-0.00-0.78
ConnecticutAmer0.001.85100.0074.930.000.92
VanderbiltSEC0.001.85100.0047.820.00-0.08
ProvidenceBE0.001.82100.0062.050.000.44
QuinnipiacMAAC25.001.820.0054.10-25.000.15
FloridaSEC0.001.8166.6765.830.000.57
Southern IllinoisMVC0.001.7833.3351.71-0.000.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz25.001.7850.0037.610.00-0.44
Kent St.MAC0.001.78100.0067.920.000.64
UMass LowellAE0.000.4733.3331.34-0.00-0.17
Stony BrookAE0.000.4033.3363.09-0.000.11
New HampshireAE0.000.360.0041.70-0.00-0.06
MaineAE0.000.340.0016.80-0.00-0.23
BinghamtonAE0.000.330.0039.15-0.00-0.07
Holy CrossPat0.000.31100.0060.630.000.07
WagnerNEC0.000.300.0043.90-0.00-0.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.280.0026.04-0.00-0.13
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.2850.0036.810.00-0.07
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.270.0035.33-0.00-0.08
ColgatePat0.000.250.0036.43-0.00-0.07
UMBCAE0.000.220.0035.60-0.00-0.06
RiderMAAC0.000.2266.6751.360.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.220.0054.88-0.000.02
AmericanPat0.000.1966.6764.270.000.05
Loyola MDPat0.000.1966.6738.520.00-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1850.0028.860.00-0.08
SienaMAAC0.000.1833.3358.87-0.000.03
St. Francis PANEC0.000.180.0051.62-0.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.18100.0086.080.000.13
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1633.3357.87-0.000.02
BucknellPat0.000.1633.3346.82-0.00-0.01
LehighPat0.000.160.0035.69-0.00-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.000.15100.0057.010.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.15100.0067.360.000.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.150.0043.82-0.00-0.02
NavyPat0.000.150.0032.22-0.00-0.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1533.3338.44-0.00-0.03
George MasonA100.000.1325.0022.09-0.00-0.07
Penn St.B100.000.1275.0045.210.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.1266.6759.850.000.02
MaristMAAC0.000.120.0043.44-0.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1250.0059.350.000.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1250.0055.220.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.1266.6760.730.000.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1266.6764.990.000.04
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1250.0051.340.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.120.0038.29-0.00-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.120.0032.86-0.00-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1033.3343.51-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.100.0034.15-0.00-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1050.0049.560.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.10100.0065.750.000.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0950.0041.690.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.09100.0063.880.000.03
LipscombASun0.000.090.0041.45-0.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.090.0048.22-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0950.0041.490.00-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0933.3333.43-0.00-0.03
ArmyPat0.000.09100.0057.810.000.01
La SalleA106.250.09100.0055.916.250.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.09100.0045.530.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.09100.0043.710.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.090.0029.88-0.00-0.04
KansasB120.000.0950.0060.200.000.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0950.0054.250.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.09100.0052.280.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.09100.0053.060.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.09100.0066.070.000.03
AkronMAC0.000.0966.6763.580.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.09100.0055.900.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0933.3334.47-0.00-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0966.6757.590.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0966.6756.820.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0966.6760.220.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.09100.0036.560.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.0933.3367.72-0.000.03
TennesseeSEC0.000.0950.0044.000.00-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.090.0036.14-0.00-0.02
BradleyMVC0.000.090.0025.34-0.00-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.090.0027.72-0.00-0.04
DePaulBE4.170.09100.0037.804.17-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.09100.0064.920.000.03
Arizona St.P120.000.07100.0058.420.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.070.0034.26-0.00-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.07100.0069.720.000.03
VirginiaACC0.000.07100.0076.260.000.03
CaliforniaP120.000.0675.0073.240.000.03
HofstraCAA0.000.0666.6763.800.000.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.060.0041.53-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0650.0041.040.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.06100.0069.630.000.03
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0065.630.000.02
IPFWSum0.000.0650.0065.390.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.060.0032.47-0.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0650.0021.230.00-0.04
MercerSC0.000.0650.0052.770.000.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0633.3344.86-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0650.0050.390.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0675.0070.210.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0074.210.000.03
AuburnSEC0.000.0666.6742.560.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.060.0038.12-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0061.540.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0064.850.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0650.0054.170.000.00
DaytonA100.000.0666.6769.310.000.02
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0055.45-0.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.060.0034.69-0.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.000.060.0065.86-0.000.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0666.6766.940.000.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.060.0057.16-0.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.060.0065.36-0.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0650.0033.640.00-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.060.0033.64-0.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0666.6750.370.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.060.0033.70-0.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0650.0054.660.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.06100.0044.620.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0633.3363.82-0.000.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0650.0033.930.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0666.6752.000.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.06100.0045.610.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0666.6752.470.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0650.0052.540.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0069.430.000.02
RutgersB100.000.0650.0036.270.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0650.0056.300.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.06100.0073.200.000.03
DrakeMVC0.000.060.0028.82-0.00-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.06100.0063.410.000.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0650.0054.580.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.06100.0057.620.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.06100.0068.990.000.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.06100.0084.100.000.04
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0054.180.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0055.810.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0057.560.000.01
XavierBE0.000.06100.0076.430.000.03
DuquesneA100.000.030.0051.78-0.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0333.3359.35-0.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0325.0029.11-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.03100.0066.870.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0038.65-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.03100.0043.610.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0054.32-0.000.00
USCP120.000.0350.0026.710.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.03100.0068.580.000.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.030.0051.04-0.000.00
BaylorB120.000.03100.0068.940.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0045.780.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0325.0057.21-0.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0031.68-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0350.0062.440.000.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0086.380.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0050.900.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.03100.0052.690.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.030.0024.25-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.030.0027.11-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0350.0062.510.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0023.20-0.00-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0333.3347.78-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.03100.0050.080.000.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6751.250.000.00
PurdueB100.000.03100.0060.570.000.01
StanfordP120.000.03100.0068.290.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0350.0035.880.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.03100.0084.130.000.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.03100.0029.380.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0038.27-0.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0366.6746.160.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.030.0045.03-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum4.170.030.0034.57-4.17-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0055.380.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0350.0045.610.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0030.14-0.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0027.18-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0366.6747.240.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0072.260.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0034.37-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.03100.0073.590.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0035.17-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.030.0041.63-0.00-0.00