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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Yale

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:103.3
Current RPI:99
Expected SOS:192
Current SOS:42
Current Record:2-4
Expected Record:17-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-3
Current OOC Record:2-4
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:91
Expected OOC SOS:85



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-431.20.05%
21-539.80.84%
20-651.03.67%
19-762.89.87%
18-878.018.02%
17-994.121.48%
16-10112.320.36%
15-11131.713.69%
14-12152.77.48%
13-13175.23.25%
12-14198.91.02%
11-15223.10.23%
10-16272.30.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Yale.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Washington (105.3)P12A90-98W100%0.0
11-17Lehigh (83.7)PatH89-81W100%0.0
11-20Virginia (4.7)ACCA62-38L0%0.0
11-22Pittsburgh (49.5)ACCA75-70L0%0.0
11-26Vermont (91.3)AEA67-65L0%0.0
11-30Bryant (194.6)NECA79-70L0%0.0
12-3Albany (156.7)AEH0-077%8.7
12-8Sacred Heart (299.9)NECA0-086%12.7
12-11Delaware (225.1)CAAH0-084%12.0
12-13Central Connecticut (293.0)NECH0-093%17.4
12-22Temple (58.9)AmerA0-029%-6.6
1-2Hartford (335.7)AEH0-096%21.0
1-13Penn (138.5)IvyA0-047%-1.0
1-14Princeton (95.0)IvyA0-037%-3.9
1-20Brown (272.3)IvyA0-075%8.1
1-27Brown (272.3)IvyH0-088%14.3
2-3Columbia (253.3)IvyA0-070%6.3
2-4Cornell (260.9)IvyA0-077%8.7
2-10Dartmouth (310.5)IvyH0-093%17.3
2-11Harvard (224.3)IvyH0-077%8.9
2-17Princeton (95.0)IvyH0-058%2.3
2-19Penn (138.5)IvyH0-067%5.2
2-24Harvard (224.3)IvyA0-059%2.8
2-25Dartmouth (310.5)IvyA0-082%11.1
3-3Cornell (260.9)IvyH0-089%14.9
3-4Columbia (253.3)IvyH0-085%12.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Yale's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Yale's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Yale.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
YaleIvy28.6026.4045.4568.17-2.609.59
BrownIvy0.604.8250.0044.280.00-0.55
DartmouthIvy0.004.810.0024.34-0.00-2.47
PennIvy0.004.7840.0059.14-0.000.87
HarvardIvy0.004.770.0044.01-0.00-0.57
CornellIvy0.004.7528.5731.72-0.00-1.74
PrincetonIvy0.694.7525.0064.91-0.351.42
ColumbiaIvy0.004.7442.8644.14-0.00-0.56
BryantNEC8.332.2716.6748.48-5.56-0.07
AlbanyAE0.002.2650.0061.660.000.53
Central ConnecticutNEC0.002.2240.0038.73-0.00-0.50
VermontAE8.332.2057.1470.651.190.91
HartfordAE0.002.1912.5023.17-0.00-1.17
Sacred HeartNEC0.002.0842.8638.84-0.00-0.47
LehighPat8.332.0040.0069.49-1.670.78
TempleAmer0.001.9971.4363.330.000.53
PittsburghACC8.331.9983.3354.075.560.16
VirginiaACC8.331.99100.0081.948.331.27
DelawareCAA0.001.9240.0041.53-0.00-0.33
WashingtonP128.331.9266.6754.442.780.17
MaineAE0.000.4416.6725.61-0.00-0.21
Stony BrookAE0.000.3716.6733.82-0.00-0.12
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.3325.0039.28-0.00-0.07
UMass LowellAE0.000.3325.0040.81-0.00-0.06
St. Francis NYNEC0.600.3316.6729.36-0.40-0.13
New HampshireAE0.000.3250.0057.480.000.05
LafayettePat0.000.3233.3331.87-0.00-0.11
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.2983.3357.990.000.05
BinghamtonAE0.000.2942.8640.94-0.00-0.05
NavyPat0.000.2828.5743.62-0.00-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.000.2750.0027.250.00-0.12
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.2550.0046.780.00-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.2557.1448.240.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.2520.0041.31-0.00-0.04
MaristMAAC0.520.2442.8635.68-0.07-0.07
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.2312.5048.98-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.2340.0043.86-0.00-0.03
HoustonAmer0.520.2183.3376.370.350.11
Holy CrossPat0.000.2142.8647.69-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.2171.4365.740.000.07
QuinnipiacMAAC0.520.2116.6734.31-0.35-0.06
HofstraCAA0.520.2057.1440.550.07-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1920.0034.22-0.00-0.06
WagnerNEC0.000.1933.3353.85-0.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.1980.0055.340.000.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1783.3362.080.000.04
La SalleA100.690.1760.0051.780.140.01
DrexelCAA0.000.1742.8636.82-0.00-0.04
SyracuseACC0.000.1766.6770.140.000.07
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1685.7180.960.000.10
HowardMEAC0.000.150.0038.26-0.00-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1571.4371.570.000.06
ArmyPat0.000.1433.3345.58-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.1475.0067.660.000.05
FordhamA100.000.1457.1443.680.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.1471.4354.520.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.1471.4370.330.000.06
CaliforniaP120.000.1483.3363.610.000.04
SienaMAAC0.000.1428.5750.51-0.000.00
USCP120.000.14100.0075.380.000.07
VillanovaBE0.000.13100.0083.120.000.09
UCFAmer0.000.1383.3374.620.000.07
ProvidenceBE1.120.1371.4356.280.480.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.1385.7175.950.000.07
North CarolinaACC0.000.1385.7180.010.000.08
SMUAmer0.600.1357.1469.300.090.05
StanfordP120.000.1175.0059.100.000.02
George WashingtonA100.000.1157.1444.160.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.1183.3358.080.000.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.1133.3335.92-0.00-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1016.6727.03-0.00-0.05
NJITASun0.000.1042.8650.32-0.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.1066.6732.240.00-0.03
ArizonaP120.000.1085.7170.990.000.04
Notre DameACC0.600.10100.0075.010.600.05
Virginia TechACC0.000.1085.7162.920.000.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0975.0047.510.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0985.7162.410.000.02
BYUWCC0.000.0771.4368.660.000.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.070.0034.18-0.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0750.0050.940.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0740.0050.71-0.000.00
VCUA100.000.0785.7178.150.000.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0750.0059.670.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0757.1442.940.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0725.0024.66-0.00-0.04
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0766.6765.810.000.02
TroySB0.000.0733.3332.23-0.00-0.03
WyomingMWC0.000.0760.0048.590.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.000.0716.6735.65-0.00-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0750.0053.530.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.0733.3340.49-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0716.6737.09-0.00-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0762.5056.500.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0783.3358.030.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.070.0028.15-0.00-0.03
TowsonCAA0.000.0750.0054.490.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0783.3377.170.000.04
William & MaryCAA0.000.0740.0055.44-0.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.0637.5034.65-0.00-0.02
RutgersB100.000.0683.3344.770.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0657.1436.050.00-0.02
ColoradoP120.000.0671.4359.850.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.600.06100.0091.060.600.05
TCUB121.190.06100.0059.481.190.01
UCLAP120.000.06100.0083.550.000.04
UtahP120.000.0675.0061.040.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0650.0036.820.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0666.6753.460.000.00
DukeACC0.000.0687.5078.680.000.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.600.0650.0055.850.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0666.6739.720.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0671.4350.570.000.00
Penn St.B100.000.0662.5043.960.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0671.4352.370.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0683.3380.550.000.04
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0633.3338.76-0.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0685.7159.740.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0614.2926.81-0.00-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.690.0385.7168.390.500.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.690.0371.4343.020.30-0.00
XavierBE0.690.03100.0074.800.690.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0340.0041.65-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0350.0029.280.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0316.6736.35-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0360.0070.140.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0350.0033.010.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0350.0052.140.000.00
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0075.690.000.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.600.0316.6730.02-0.40-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0333.3341.52-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.600.0366.6751.460.200.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.600.0328.5734.18-0.26-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0350.0056.260.000.00
IowaB100.600.0342.8644.33-0.09-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.600.030.0039.35-0.60-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.600.0320.0032.60-0.36-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0375.0070.470.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.600.0314.2928.15-0.43-0.01
NorthwesternB100.600.0371.4366.220.260.01
OhioMAC0.000.0380.0068.320.000.01
Ohio St.B100.600.0385.7172.660.430.01
OregonP120.000.0371.4366.730.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0328.5723.76-0.00-0.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0320.0042.63-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.520.03100.0080.780.520.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.600.0366.6758.420.200.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.600.0342.8634.17-0.09-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6736.45-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.520.030.0033.58-0.52-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0320.0036.00-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0340.0050.91-0.000.00
DavidsonA100.000.0383.3368.880.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.0380.0035.960.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.600.0320.0048.38-0.36-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0333.3338.19-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.600.0371.4363.090.260.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0383.3359.600.000.01
MarylandB100.600.0385.7156.490.430.00
Morehead St.OVC0.600.0320.0041.93-0.36-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0333.3348.73-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0038.35-0.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0340.0030.80-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0316.6740.71-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0385.7169.010.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0047.990.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0337.5036.24-0.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0360.0039.200.00-0.01