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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Yale

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:203.6
Current RPI:205
Expected SOS:244
Current SOS:230
Current Record:7-10
Expected Record:14-15
Current Conf Record:1-1
Expected Conf Record:8-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-3
Current OOC Record:6-9
Expected OOC Record:6-9
Expected OOC RPI:188
Expected OOC SOS:205



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-10111.10.07%
18-11130.80.56%
17-12148.63.22%
16-13166.59.84%
15-14183.918.94%
14-15200.824.34%
13-16216.622.01%
12-17231.913.16%
11-18246.35.84%
10-19262.11.68%
9-20274.60.29%
8-21278.20.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Yale.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Creighton (29.1)BEA92-76L0%0.0
11-12Wisconsin (130.2)B10A89-61L0%0.0
11-14South Carolina St. (325.8)MEACH86-54W100%0.0
11-17Albany (131.7)AEA80-72L0%0.0
11-22Alcorn St. (342.9)SWACA73-87W100%0.0
11-25Vermont (57.0)AEH73-79L0%0.0
11-27Delaware (224.8)CAAA66-76W100%0.0
11-29Bryant (330.8)NECH84-67W100%0.0
12-2TCU (28.3)B12A92-66L0%0.0
12-6Lehigh (237.9)PatA77-86W100%0.0
12-9St. Bonaventure (50.3)A10A75-67L0%0.0
12-12Iona (82.3)MAACA83-67L0%0.0
12-22Monmouth (175.3)MAACH64-85L0%0.0
12-30Kennesaw St. (313.7)ASunA74-89W100%0.0
1-6Georgia Tech (145.6)ACCA74-60L0%0.0
1-12Brown (261.3)IvyH78-72W100%0.0
1-19Brown (261.3)IvyA81-80L0%0.0
1-26Harvard (180.6)IvyH0-058%2.3
1-27Dartmouth (320.7)IvyH0-084%10.9
2-2Princeton (141.3)IvyA0-026%-7.2
2-3Penn (173.5)IvyA0-034%-4.6
2-9Columbia (278.8)IvyH0-071%6.2
2-10Cornell (278.9)IvyH0-084%11.2
2-16Dartmouth (320.7)IvyA0-066%4.5
2-17Harvard (180.6)IvyA0-036%-4.1
2-23Cornell (278.9)IvyA0-067%4.8
2-24Columbia (278.8)IvyA0-049%-0.2
3-2Penn (173.5)IvyH0-057%1.8
3-3Princeton (141.3)IvyH0-047%-0.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Yale's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Yale's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Yale.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
YaleIvy26.6026.3349.3352.61-0.351.37
DartmouthIvy0.224.3021.4326.28-0.13-2.04
PrincetonIvy0.164.2852.9460.020.010.86
PennIvy0.084.2564.7163.380.021.14
HarvardIvy0.084.2537.5046.13-0.02-0.33
CornellIvy0.084.2433.3334.10-0.03-1.35
ColumbiaIvy0.074.2420.0031.64-0.04-1.56
BrownIvy5.954.2450.0044.730.00-0.45
AlbanyAE3.172.0068.4266.951.170.68
MonmouthMAAC3.171.9623.5338.85-1.68-0.44
VermontAE3.021.9472.2276.331.341.02
BryantNEC3.221.8910.0017.65-2.58-1.22
LehighPat3.021.8141.1846.41-0.53-0.13
IonaMAAC3.101.8161.1165.740.690.57
DelawareCAA2.941.7950.0044.580.00-0.19
St. BonaventureA103.101.7864.7167.620.910.63
CreightonBE3.031.7673.6869.681.440.69
WisconsinB103.021.7547.3744.47-0.16-0.19
Alcorn St.SWAC3.011.7513.3326.45-2.21-0.83
TCUB123.021.7572.2264.451.340.51
South Carolina St.MEAC3.011.7529.4132.80-1.24-0.60
Georgia TechACC2.941.7250.0041.220.00-0.30
Kennesaw St.ASun2.941.7217.6525.87-1.90-0.83
QuinnipiacMAAC0.370.2931.5830.00-0.14-0.11
UMass LowellAE0.430.2829.4130.67-0.18-0.11
SienaMAAC0.460.2630.0031.69-0.18-0.10
LafayettePat0.080.2522.2227.51-0.05-0.11
MaineAE0.150.2510.5314.86-0.12-0.17
Stony BrookAE0.360.2538.8946.68-0.08-0.02
NavyPat0.230.2460.0055.160.050.03
NortheasternCAA0.240.2463.1663.180.060.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.2450.0051.650.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.310.2460.0060.340.060.05
ColgatePat0.160.2250.0051.040.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.240.2157.1453.220.030.01
New HampshireAE0.220.2129.4138.15-0.09-0.05
Boston CollegeACC0.080.1968.4255.060.030.02
VillanovaBE0.000.1894.7490.310.000.15
BinghamtonAE0.070.1844.4442.74-0.01-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.230.1826.3230.43-0.11-0.07
NorthwesternB100.360.1855.0050.370.040.00
ManhattanMAAC0.080.1847.3748.17-0.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.080.1738.8944.14-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.080.1617.6517.23-0.05-0.11
NJITASun0.290.1638.8942.60-0.06-0.02
MaristMAAC0.290.1521.0521.99-0.17-0.09
Rhode IslandA100.370.1583.3381.410.250.10
Boston UniversityPat0.160.1550.0053.160.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.1545.0043.490.00-0.02
Notre DameACC0.230.1563.1661.050.060.03
SyracuseACC0.160.1568.4261.270.060.03
ButlerBE0.160.1566.6763.070.050.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.1523.5332.62-0.04-0.05
BaylorB120.320.1461.1156.090.070.02
VirginiaACC0.310.1494.4485.440.280.10
HartfordAE0.140.1452.6346.880.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.080.1361.1160.530.020.03
Loyola MDPat0.000.1322.2228.670.00-0.05
ToledoMAC0.000.1366.6767.690.000.04
DuquesneA100.000.1270.0058.100.000.02
ProvidenceBE0.360.1270.0060.460.140.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.280.1252.3848.520.01-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.280.1240.0042.57-0.06-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.1230.0033.49-0.03-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.280.1233.3335.19-0.09-0.04
HofstraCAA0.240.1257.8959.470.040.02
BucknellPat0.240.1261.9068.010.060.04
KentuckySEC0.160.1273.6867.950.080.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.160.120.009.15-0.16-0.10
TowsonCAA0.000.1263.1666.000.000.04
RiderMAAC0.080.1165.0065.370.020.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.160.1144.4448.91-0.02-0.00
UMBCAE0.080.1158.8258.360.010.02
UCLAP120.310.1165.0062.040.090.03
MarquetteBE0.150.1168.4260.530.060.02
ConnecticutAmer0.080.1052.6347.390.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.070.0961.9055.770.020.01
JacksonvilleASun0.160.0933.3333.80-0.05-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.170.0938.8943.43-0.04-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.070.0911.1117.96-0.06-0.06
USCP120.080.0971.4368.300.040.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.170.0936.8444.12-0.04-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.170.0921.0544.26-0.10-0.01
FordhamA100.080.0931.5829.06-0.03-0.04
MassachusettsA100.080.0950.0046.780.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.240.0950.0052.440.000.00
Miami FLACC0.080.0976.4769.020.040.03
MinnesotaB100.000.0963.6457.640.000.01
WoffordSC0.080.0968.7563.620.030.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.160.0966.6765.620.050.03
HowardMEAC0.080.0910.5327.31-0.06-0.04
DaytonA100.080.0947.3750.95-0.000.00
La SalleA100.000.0940.0042.720.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.170.0961.1147.260.04-0.00
Texas TechB120.080.0978.9571.810.050.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.099.5217.94-0.06-0.06
TempleAmer0.070.0952.6351.730.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.150.0964.7159.980.050.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.240.0915.7920.92-0.16-0.05
RichmondA100.150.0931.5834.35-0.06-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.150.0942.1144.97-0.02-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.150.0952.9459.250.010.02
Seton HallBE0.230.0975.0067.890.110.03
St. John'sBE0.150.0947.3742.18-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.150.0968.4257.770.060.01
XavierBE0.150.0985.7180.080.110.05
LouisvilleACC0.140.0877.7869.360.080.03
NebraskaB100.150.0866.6759.780.050.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0789.4777.030.000.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0742.1145.970.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.0610.5316.75-0.07-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0616.6724.290.00-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0630.0036.48-0.04-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0657.8966.250.010.02
LipscombASun0.080.0652.9459.360.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.060.0010.65-0.09-0.05
North FloridaASun0.080.0631.5835.15-0.03-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0621.0539.47-0.05-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0627.7840.970.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.080.0633.3336.92-0.03-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.170.0645.0049.27-0.02-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0647.0644.910.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.080.0626.3228.14-0.04-0.03
BYUWCC0.000.0680.9576.230.000.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.0623.5328.210.00-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0656.2556.810.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0668.7563.960.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0672.2274.700.000.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0690.4888.940.000.05
Florida St.ACC0.080.0673.6869.610.040.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.160.0657.8953.190.030.00
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0636.8435.55-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.080.0630.0030.99-0.03-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0652.6351.090.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0620.0041.760.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.080.0625.0028.25-0.04-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0618.7536.76-0.05-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0641.1839.130.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0627.7834.500.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0621.0524.710.00-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.150.0622.2227.33-0.09-0.03
PittsburghACC0.160.0640.0030.87-0.03-0.02
BradleyMVC0.150.0665.0057.870.050.01
BuffaloMAC0.160.0672.2274.900.070.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0610.0019.62-0.06-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.150.0627.7838.13-0.07-0.01
DavidsonA100.080.0658.8261.440.010.01
DePaulBE0.000.0642.1134.320.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.070.0668.4254.090.030.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.150.0666.6773.240.050.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0647.3746.910.00-0.00
MarylandB100.080.0670.0065.320.030.02
MemphisAmer0.140.0665.0058.490.040.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0684.2173.210.000.03
GeorgiaSEC0.150.0666.6755.930.050.01
IllinoisB100.070.0647.3744.27-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.080.0684.2179.740.050.03
Kansas St.B120.080.0673.6862.720.040.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0685.0083.180.000.04
OklahomaB120.150.0677.7867.900.090.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0668.4254.090.000.00
PurdueB100.070.0690.4888.380.060.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0657.1460.400.010.01
RutgersB100.140.0657.8947.140.02-0.00
TexasB120.080.0663.1657.620.020.01
WagnerNEC0.070.0664.7164.540.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0644.4441.150.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0684.2178.170.000.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0366.6765.360.030.01
LSUSEC0.090.0361.1153.160.020.00
MercerSC0.080.0344.4454.89-0.010.00
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0347.0652.51-0.010.00
SamfordSC0.080.0327.7832.66-0.04-0.01
SeattleWAC0.080.0357.8954.500.010.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0335.2940.48-0.02-0.01
TulaneAmer0.090.0363.1657.900.020.01
WashingtonP120.080.0370.0061.440.030.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0329.4133.22-0.03-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0320.0028.72-0.05-0.01
FurmanSC0.080.0366.6768.500.030.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0329.4139.620.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0355.5656.710.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0343.7554.090.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0329.4127.74-0.03-0.01
UCFAmer0.080.0368.4260.880.030.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0368.7567.640.030.01
WinthropBSth0.080.0346.6758.78-0.010.01
George MasonA100.000.0345.0041.350.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.070.0380.9583.260.050.02
Kent St.MAC0.070.0344.4444.86-0.01-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.070.0329.4134.76-0.03-0.01
OhioMAC0.080.0347.0648.44-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0336.8432.79-0.02-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0350.0055.650.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0360.0062.030.010.01
VCUA100.000.0360.0059.690.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.080.0356.2557.400.010.00
BelmontOVC0.080.0371.4374.650.030.01
Chicago St.WAC0.070.030.003.12-0.07-0.03
DukeACC0.000.0389.4785.190.000.02
Green BayHorz0.070.0325.0027.94-0.04-0.01
IndianaB100.070.0357.8950.680.010.00
IowaB100.000.0347.6244.030.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0326.6729.04-0.04-0.01
MichiganB100.000.0375.0070.270.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0345.0047.05-0.01-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0325.0028.02-0.04-0.01
NevadaMWC0.080.0385.7182.070.060.02
New MexicoMWC0.080.0345.0048.56-0.01-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.080.0380.0075.050.050.01
North TexasCUSA0.080.0344.4446.64-0.01-0.00
Ohio St.B100.070.0380.9576.520.050.01
SMUAmer0.080.0370.0070.630.030.01
South DakotaSum0.080.0373.6872.360.040.01
TennesseeSEC0.080.0372.2268.920.030.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0345.0045.02-0.01-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0368.4257.780.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0368.4270.810.030.01
Wright St.Horz0.080.0368.4269.240.030.01