Yale

Conference:	Ivy
Expected RPI:	183.0
Current RPI:	183
Expected SOS:	235
Current SOS:	235
Current Record:	15-15
Expected Record:	15-15
Current Conf Record:	9-6
Expected Conf Record:	9-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	14-2
Current OOC Record:	6-9
Expected OOC Record:	6-9
Expected OOC RPI:	196
Expected OOC SOS:	214

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
15-15	183.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Yale.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Creighton (44.0)	BE	A	92-76	L	0%
11-12	Wisconsin (114.0)	B10	A	89-61	L	0%
11-14	South Carolina St. (331.0)	MEAC	H	86-54	W	100%
11-17	Albany (142.0)	AE	A	80-72	L	0%
11-22	Alcorn St. (348.0)	SWAC	A	73-87	W	100%
11-25	Vermont (60.0)	AE	H	73-79	L	0%
11-27	Delaware (233.0)	CAA	A	66-76	W	100%
11-29	Bryant (341.0)	NEC	H	84-67	W	100%
12-2	TCU (26.0)	B12	A	92-66	L	0%
12-6	Lehigh (214.0)	Pat	A	77-86	W	100%
12-9	St. Bonaventure (24.0)	A10	A	75-67	L	0%
12-12	Iona (107.0)	MAAC	A	83-67	L	0%
12-22	Monmouth (199.0)	MAAC	H	64-85	L	0%
12-30	Kennesaw St. (301.0)	ASun	A	74-89	W	100%
1-6	Georgia Tech (161.0)	ACC	A	74-60	L	0%
1-12	Brown (298.0)	Ivy	H	78-72	W	100%
1-19	Brown (298.0)	Ivy	A	81-80	L	0%
1-26	Harvard (117.0)	Ivy	H	52-54	L	0%
1-27	Dartmouth (334.0)	Ivy	H	74-64	W	100%
2-2	Princeton (226.0)	Ivy	A	76-73	L	0%
2-3	Penn (112.0)	Ivy	A	59-50	L	0%
2-9	Columbia (316.0)	Ivy	H	88-84	W	100%
2-10	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	H	74-65	W	100%
2-16	Dartmouth (334.0)	Ivy	A	65-77	W	100%
2-17	Harvard (117.0)	Ivy	A	64-49	L	0%
2-23	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	A	80-82	W	100%
2-24	Columbia (316.0)	Ivy	A	73-83	W	100%
3-2	Penn (112.0)	Ivy	H	80-79	W	100%
3-3	Princeton (226.0)	Ivy	H	94-90	W	100%
3-10	Penn (112.0)	Ivy	A	80-57	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Yale's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Yale's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Yale.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Yale	Ivy	26.38	26.38	56.15	56.15	3.25	3.25
Penn	Ivy	5.82	5.82	75.00	75.00	2.91	2.91
Harvard	Ivy	4.29	4.29	53.57	53.57	0.31	0.31
Cornell	Ivy	4.19	4.19	44.00	44.00	-0.50	-0.50
Dartmouth	Ivy	4.18	4.18	25.00	25.00	-2.09	-2.09
Princeton	Ivy	4.17	4.17	42.31	42.31	-0.64	-0.64
Brown	Ivy	4.13	4.13	37.50	37.50	-1.03	-1.03
Columbia	Ivy	4.13	4.13	29.17	29.17	-1.72	-1.72
Albany	AE	1.92	1.92	66.67	66.67	0.64	0.64
Monmouth	MAAC	1.91	1.91	33.33	33.33	-0.64	-0.64
Vermont	AE	1.87	1.87	78.12	78.12	1.05	1.05
Bryant	NEC	1.82	1.82	10.00	10.00	-1.46	-1.46
Lehigh	Pat	1.75	1.75	53.57	53.57	0.13	0.13
Iona	MAAC	1.75	1.75	59.38	59.38	0.33	0.33
Delaware	CAA	1.73	1.73	40.00	40.00	-0.35	-0.35
St. Bonaventure	A10	1.72	1.72	77.42	77.42	0.94	0.94
Creighton	BE	1.70	1.70	63.33	63.33	0.45	0.45
Wisconsin	B10	1.69	1.69	43.75	43.75	-0.21	-0.21
Alcorn St.	SWAC	1.69	1.69	25.93	25.93	-0.82	-0.82
TCU	B12	1.69	1.69	64.52	64.52	0.49	0.49
South Carolina St.	MEAC	1.69	1.69	27.59	27.59	-0.76	-0.76
Georgia Tech	ACC	1.67	1.67	38.71	38.71	-0.38	-0.38
Kennesaw St.	ASun	1.67	1.67	29.63	29.63	-0.68	-0.68
Stony Brook	AE	0.28	0.28	38.71	38.71	-0.06	-0.06
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.27	0.27	36.36	36.36	-0.07	-0.07
Lafayette	Pat	0.26	0.26	30.00	30.00	-0.10	-0.10
Maine	AE	0.26	0.26	13.33	13.33	-0.19	-0.19
Navy	Pat	0.26	0.26	61.29	61.29	0.06	0.06
UMass Lowell	AE	0.26	0.26	37.93	37.93	-0.06	-0.06
Northeastern	CAA	0.25	0.25	68.75	68.75	0.09	0.09
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.25	0.25	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.24	0.24	25.00	25.00	-0.12	-0.12
Canisius	MAAC	0.22	0.22	65.62	65.62	0.07	0.07
Colgate	Pat	0.21	0.21	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.21	0.21	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.21	0.21	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.20	0.20	88.24	88.24	0.15	0.15
New Hampshire	AE	0.20	0.20	27.59	27.59	-0.09	-0.09
Niagara	MAAC	0.19	0.19	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
Manhattan	MAAC	0.19	0.19	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Boston University	Pat	0.17	0.17	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.17	0.17	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.17	0.17	31.03	31.03	-0.06	-0.06
Holy Cross	Pat	0.17	0.17	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.16	0.16	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Longwood	BSth	0.15	0.15	13.33	13.33	-0.11	-0.11
NJIT	ASun	0.15	0.15	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.14	0.14	19.35	19.35	-0.09	-0.09
Providence	BE	0.14	0.14	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Notre Dame	ACC	0.14	0.14	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Butler	BE	0.14	0.14	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Toledo	MAC	0.14	0.14	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Rhode Island	A10	0.14	0.14	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
George Washington	A10	0.14	0.14	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.14	0.14	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.14	0.14	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.14	0.14	6.67	6.67	-0.12	-0.12
Towson	CAA	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.13	0.13	93.94	93.94	0.12	0.12
Hartford	AE	0.13	0.13	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
UMBC	AE	0.13	0.13	67.74	67.74	0.05	0.05
Army	Pat	0.12	0.12	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola MD	Pat	0.12	0.12	26.67	26.67	-0.06	-0.06
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.12	0.12	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.12	0.12	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.12	0.12	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.12	0.12	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Jacksonville	ASun	0.12	0.12	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.11	0.11	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.11	0.11	73.53	73.53	0.05	0.05
Howard	MEAC	0.11	0.11	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Kentucky	SEC	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Dayton	A10	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.11	0.11	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
UCLA	P12	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Temple	Amer	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.10	0.10	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Richmond	A10	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Connecticut	Amer	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.09	0.09	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.09	0.09	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
USC	P12	0.09	0.09	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
USC Upstate	ASun	0.09	0.09	10.71	10.71	-0.07	-0.07
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.09	0.09	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.09	0.09	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.08	0.08	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	15.62	15.62	-0.06	-0.06
Fordham	A10	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.08	0.08	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Wofford	SC	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
College of Charleston	CAA	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Minnesota	B10	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Elon	CAA	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
UMKC	WAC	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Louisville	ACC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.08	0.08	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Xavier	BE	0.08	0.08	84.85	84.85	0.06	0.06
Davidson	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Maryland	B10	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.08	0.08	87.88	87.88	0.06	0.06
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	9.68	9.68	-0.05	-0.05
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
BYU	WCC	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.06	0.06	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
American	Pat	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.06	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
Georgia Southern	SB	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
LSU	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Mercer	SC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Tulane	Amer	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
UCF	Amer	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
North Dakota	BSky	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
George Mason	A10	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
SMU	Amer	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
VCU	A10	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	3.33	3.33	-0.02	-0.02
Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01