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Through games of Dec 17, 2014.


Yale

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:68.3
Current RPI:36
Expected SOS:134
Current SOS:85
Current Record:7-3
Expected Record:19-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-3
Current OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC Record:10-5
Expected OOC RPI:43
Expected OOC SOS:118



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-421.20.04%
24-522.80.49%
23-627.91.97%
22-734.05.49%
21-842.011.11%
20-951.717.78%
19-1063.119.89%
18-1175.918.00%
17-1290.013.35%
16-13105.57.19%
15-14123.23.23%
14-15140.31.11%
13-16155.60.28%
12-17171.50.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Yale.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Quinnipiac (248.6)MAACA88-85L0%0.0
11-21Illinois Chicago (305.5)HorzN70-58W100%0.0
11-22Southern Illinois (204.3)MVCN46-53W100%0.0
11-23Kent St. (117.7)MACA59-66W100%0.0
11-26Lafayette (91.6)PatH82-60W100%0.0
11-28Providence (82.2)BEA72-66L0%0.0
11-30Hartford (213.4)AEH69-57W100%0.0
12-3Bryant (202.3)NECA60-67W100%0.0
12-5Connecticut (75.7)AmerA44-45W100%0.0
12-8Florida (39.8)SECA85-47L0%0.0
12-18Vermont (165.1)AEA0-048%-0.7
12-20Albany (224.6)AEH0-084%11.6
12-30Sacred Heart (155.6)NECA0-054%1.1
1-3Vanderbilt (87.7)SECA0-027%-7.1
1-9NJIT (236.7)indA0-068%5.5
1-17Brown (247.7)IvyA0-070%6.2
1-24Brown (247.7)IvyH0-090%15.0
1-30Columbia (99.0)IvyA0-033%-5.1
1-31Cornell (180.9)IvyA0-053%0.9
2-6Dartmouth (186.6)IvyH0-079%9.4
2-7Harvard (51.4)IvyH0-054%1.1
2-13Penn (272.2)IvyA0-068%5.5
2-14Princeton (239.3)IvyA0-060%3.0
2-20Cornell (180.9)IvyH0-079%9.7
2-21Columbia (99.0)IvyH0-062%3.7
2-27Princeton (239.3)IvyH0-084%11.7
2-28Penn (272.2)IvyH0-089%14.3
3-6Harvard (51.4)IvyA0-026%-7.7
3-7Dartmouth (186.6)IvyA0-052%0.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Yale's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Yale's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Yale.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
YaleIvy27.9026.3180.4371.4916.9811.31
DartmouthIvy0.254.3144.4448.43-0.03-0.14
BrownIvy0.584.2840.0034.87-0.12-1.29
PennIvy0.314.2537.5033.76-0.08-1.38
HarvardIvy0.004.2485.7173.990.002.03
PrincetonIvy0.314.2227.2738.49-0.14-0.97
ColumbiaIvy0.004.2162.5066.230.001.37
CornellIvy0.004.1955.5649.690.00-0.03
VermontAE0.922.0350.0060.160.000.41
BryantNEC5.362.0333.3348.92-1.79-0.04
AlbanyAE0.541.9733.3350.02-0.180.00
HartfordAE5.311.9755.5652.700.590.11
LafayettePat5.001.9185.7171.963.570.84
Sacred HeartNEC0.561.9050.0059.090.000.35
NJITind0.001.8836.3641.18-0.00-0.33
ConnecticutAmer5.361.8566.6758.151.790.30
VanderbiltSEC0.001.8475.0060.190.000.38
QuinnipiacMAAC5.251.8228.5743.96-2.25-0.22
ProvidenceBE5.001.8170.0051.312.000.05
FloridaSEC5.001.8155.5663.700.560.50
Southern IllinoisMVC5.581.7866.6751.361.860.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz5.611.7820.0022.47-3.36-0.98
Kent St.MAC5.481.7883.3363.593.650.48
UMass LowellAE0.000.4655.5654.600.000.04
Stony BrookAE0.230.4037.5055.05-0.060.04
New HampshireAE0.360.3657.1464.510.050.11
MaineAE0.000.3411.1121.17-0.00-0.20
BinghamtonAE0.230.330.0012.01-0.23-0.25
Holy CrossPat0.250.3157.1452.640.040.02
WagnerNEC0.310.3014.2933.80-0.22-0.10
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.310.2728.5741.30-0.13-0.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.250.2722.2231.12-0.14-0.10
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.250.2736.3647.27-0.07-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.2420.0042.80-0.00-0.04
UMBCAE0.000.2210.0021.05-0.00-0.13
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.2222.2240.77-0.00-0.04
RiderMAAC0.250.2145.4552.00-0.020.01
AmericanPat0.000.1860.0065.060.000.06
Loyola MDPat0.000.1833.3327.49-0.00-0.08
NiagaraMAAC0.250.1814.2931.11-0.18-0.07
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1850.0062.870.000.05
SienaMAAC0.310.1837.5051.47-0.080.01
KentuckySEC0.230.18100.0094.670.230.16
Boston UniversityPat0.310.1633.3341.58-0.10-0.03
BucknellPat0.000.1640.0036.15-0.00-0.04
LehighPat0.000.1642.8652.31-0.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.15100.0082.310.000.10
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.1525.0040.49-0.00-0.03
NavyPat0.230.1520.0021.41-0.14-0.09
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1550.0061.650.000.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.310.1530.0039.75-0.12-0.03
MaristMAAC0.000.1210.0018.78-0.00-0.08
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1244.4456.70-0.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.1290.9154.060.000.01
La SalleA100.310.1250.0049.770.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.1260.0053.790.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.1275.0069.340.000.05
George MasonA100.000.1225.0025.95-0.00-0.06
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1233.3332.85-0.00-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.580.1271.4359.600.250.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1237.5038.03-0.00-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1262.5064.360.000.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1277.7865.350.000.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1040.0046.88-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.230.1036.3644.37-0.06-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.1071.4348.780.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.230.0966.6741.940.08-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0960.0055.530.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0930.0044.01-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0955.5640.200.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.360.0977.7868.810.200.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0950.0033.280.00-0.03
MarquetteBE0.000.0955.5647.640.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0987.5064.520.000.03
AkronMAC0.360.0960.0056.780.070.01
FairfieldMAAC0.310.0944.4439.99-0.03-0.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0960.0040.460.00-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.360.0945.4544.47-0.03-0.01
KansasB120.250.0988.8969.540.190.03
Saint LouisA100.250.0960.0034.010.05-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.250.0922.2230.96-0.14-0.03
LipscombASun0.000.0925.0042.50-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0950.0056.370.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.230.0962.5073.580.060.04
Wake ForestACC0.000.0950.0038.030.00-0.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0933.3332.03-0.00-0.03
SMUAmer0.230.0970.0071.340.090.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.500.090.0016.94-0.50-0.06
DePaulBE0.230.0966.6738.970.08-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0966.6755.660.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0962.5059.460.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0950.0039.320.00-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0950.0046.160.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0877.7862.380.000.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0866.6752.510.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.250.0866.6759.320.080.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0760.0054.270.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0750.0052.290.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0766.6757.570.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.07100.0085.770.000.05
HofstraCAA0.000.0677.7878.200.000.04
IPFWSum0.000.0657.1456.730.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0655.5638.460.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0620.0026.68-0.00-0.03
MercerSC0.000.0637.5041.84-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0675.0064.990.000.02
West VirginiaB120.670.0690.0066.760.540.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0628.5736.94-0.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0675.0067.080.000.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0690.0066.470.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0637.5048.87-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.000.0644.4449.46-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0625.0037.61-0.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0675.0078.710.000.03
IllinoisB100.000.0672.7365.950.000.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0675.0074.350.000.03
IonaMAAC0.000.0666.6772.380.000.03
LibertyBSth0.000.0625.0035.05-0.00-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0622.2237.72-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0630.0028.35-0.00-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3334.56-0.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0630.0032.16-0.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0650.0037.520.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0039.62-0.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0650.0055.940.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0654.5557.610.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.007.87-0.00-0.05
SyracuseACC0.000.0666.6757.600.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0660.0059.520.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0666.6772.280.000.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0680.0069.840.000.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0655.5653.800.000.00
Notre DameACC0.230.0690.9171.750.190.03
DaytonA100.580.0677.7869.890.320.02
UCFAmer0.230.0655.5635.040.03-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0677.7869.420.000.02
DrakeMVC0.000.0620.0020.14-0.00-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0637.5038.59-0.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0675.0070.220.000.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0666.6764.900.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0655.5660.050.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0637.5040.12-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0690.0078.120.000.03
RutgersB100.000.0660.0034.930.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0650.0048.630.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0056.680.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0687.5085.210.000.04
TulaneAmer0.000.0687.5054.920.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0677.7871.830.000.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0644.4435.62-0.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0644.4431.65-0.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.000.0680.0072.470.000.02
CreightonBE0.000.0672.7351.600.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.230.0650.0037.400.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.250.0690.0075.760.200.03
Seton HallBE0.000.0688.8963.530.000.02
XavierBE0.000.0680.0071.020.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.0328.5731.25-0.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0340.0050.16-0.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0341.6744.37-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.000.0355.5642.690.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0037.67-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0350.0054.660.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0337.5064.54-0.000.01
USCP120.000.0360.0037.230.00-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.360.0342.8638.50-0.05-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0385.7170.330.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0350.0053.980.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0371.4363.540.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.360.0336.3633.75-0.10-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0023.23-0.00-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0355.5656.480.000.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0375.0049.720.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6752.270.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.230.0362.5066.710.060.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0337.5041.33-0.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0050.770.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.230.0337.5031.79-0.06-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0362.5055.120.000.00
BaylorB120.000.0390.0073.960.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0325.0044.80-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.250.030.0012.02-0.25-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.360.0350.0044.640.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.360.030.0014.70-0.36-0.02
DukeACC0.000.03100.0087.440.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0377.7851.090.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0370.0060.810.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0355.5661.640.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0038.50-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0390.0084.620.000.02
PurdueB100.000.0372.7363.690.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.250.030.0024.33-0.25-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.250.0344.4447.39-0.03-0.00
StanfordP120.000.0375.0058.750.000.01
TexasB120.360.0390.0081.760.290.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0322.2245.85-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.250.0310.0018.36-0.20-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.250.0333.3345.26-0.08-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.250.0370.0071.470.100.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.250.0311.1144.96-0.19-0.00
UABCUSA0.250.0333.3338.24-0.08-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.250.0357.1456.560.040.00