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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Yale

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:127.9
Current RPI:198
Expected SOS:175
Current SOS:120
Current Record:1-3
Expected Record:16-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-3
Current OOC Record:1-3
Expected OOC Record:7-8
Expected OOC RPI:106
Expected OOC SOS:93



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-525.70.03%
23-638.00.04%
22-743.70.39%
21-852.31.25%
20-963.13.77%
19-1076.17.06%
18-1189.711.38%
17-12106.615.62%
16-13123.918.55%
15-14142.616.33%
14-15162.412.39%
13-16183.57.23%
12-17203.73.57%
11-18224.91.69%
10-19244.80.54%
9-20263.20.12%
8-21297.50.02%
7-22286.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Yale.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Creighton (36.3)BEA92-76L0%0.0
11-12Wisconsin (36.5)B10A89-61L0%0.0
11-14South Carolina St. (317.2)MEACH86-54W100%0.0
11-17Albany (93.1)AEA80-72L0%0.0
11-22Alcorn St. (317.1)SWACA0-086%13.2
11-25Vermont (75.8)AEH0-048%-0.6
11-27Delaware (201.3)CAAA0-056%1.7
11-29Bryant (305.7)NECH0-092%17.1
12-2TCU (44.2)B12A0-012%-13.9
12-6Lehigh (189.6)PatA0-057%2.2
12-9St. Bonaventure (90.6)A10A0-031%-5.9
12-12Iona (89.3)MAACA0-038%-3.7
12-22Monmouth (75.4)MAACH0-058%2.5
12-30Kennesaw St. (294.0)ASunA0-076%8.4
1-6Georgia Tech (108.5)ACCA0-020%-10.2
1-12Brown (278.2)IvyH0-086%13.1
1-19Brown (278.2)IvyA0-072%7.1
1-26Harvard (130.4)IvyH0-059%2.8
1-27Dartmouth (281.7)IvyH0-085%12.4
2-2Princeton (162.6)IvyA0-043%-2.1
2-3Penn (191.6)IvyA0-050%0.0
2-9Columbia (192.2)IvyH0-071%6.8
2-10Cornell (281.3)IvyH0-085%12.7
2-16Dartmouth (281.7)IvyA0-070%6.4
2-17Harvard (130.4)IvyA0-039%-3.2
2-23Cornell (281.3)IvyA0-071%6.7
2-24Columbia (192.2)IvyA0-053%0.8
3-2Penn (191.6)IvyH0-069%6.0
3-3Princeton (162.6)IvyH0-063%3.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Yale's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Yale's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Yale.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
YaleIvy32.8126.3625.0060.94-16.415.77
DartmouthIvy0.004.320.0034.660.00-1.33
PrincetonIvy0.004.290.0051.340.000.12
CornellIvy0.004.2733.3335.710.00-1.22
PennIvy0.004.2733.3350.070.000.01
HarvardIvy0.004.2633.3354.500.000.38
ColumbiaIvy0.004.2633.3351.370.000.12
BrownIvy0.004.26100.0040.810.00-0.78
AlbanyAE12.502.00100.0071.5612.500.86
MonmouthMAAC0.001.9766.6760.360.000.41
VermontAE0.001.9566.6774.910.000.97
BryantNEC0.001.890.0030.980.00-0.72
LehighPat0.001.8266.6751.910.000.07
IonaMAAC2.081.8125.0059.68-1.040.35
DelawareCAA0.001.7950.0048.840.00-0.04
CreightonBE12.501.76100.0066.3012.500.57
Alcorn St.SWAC2.081.750.0038.02-2.08-0.42
St. BonaventureA100.001.7550.0053.910.000.14
WisconsinB1014.061.7550.0065.830.000.56
South Carolina St.MEAC14.581.750.0035.26-14.58-0.52
Georgia TechACC0.001.720.0056.760.000.23
Kennesaw St.ASun0.001.720.0031.660.00-0.63
TCUB120.001.72100.0060.230.000.35
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.2925.0032.490.00-0.10
UMass LowellAE0.000.2850.0042.730.00-0.04
SienaMAAC0.000.260.0037.060.00-0.07
LafayettePat0.000.260.0021.970.00-0.14
NortheasternCAA0.000.2550.0049.480.00-0.00
MaineAE0.000.250.0013.450.00-0.18
Stony BrookAE0.000.250.0047.400.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.2550.0052.870.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.2433.3346.330.00-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.2250.0050.310.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.2150.0051.840.000.01
New HampshireAE0.000.210.0048.110.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1966.6759.540.000.04
Boston CollegeACC1.560.1975.0045.290.78-0.02
VillanovaBE0.000.19100.0082.960.000.12
Holy CrossPat0.000.19100.0048.790.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.18100.0055.280.000.02
NorthwesternB102.080.1875.0055.041.040.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.1825.0038.080.00-0.04
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1866.6754.900.000.02
George WashingtonA100.000.1666.6745.880.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.160.0017.060.00-0.11
NJITASun0.000.1633.3333.210.00-0.05
ButlerBE0.000.1675.0052.360.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.1650.0073.230.000.07
Boston UniversityPat2.080.160.0047.69-2.08-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.160.0023.830.00-0.08
SyracuseACC0.000.15100.0062.240.000.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.150.0044.950.00-0.02
Notre DameACC0.000.15100.0073.730.000.07
HartfordAE0.000.1433.3326.430.00-0.07
VirginiaACC0.000.14100.0074.140.000.07
ArmyPat0.000.1350.0053.620.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.130.0038.210.00-0.03
ToledoMAC0.000.13100.0064.120.000.04
ProvidenceBE0.000.1375.0064.570.000.04
DuquesneA100.000.13100.0047.670.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.1275.0071.830.000.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.120.0021.590.00-0.07
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.1225.0040.490.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.1225.0045.730.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.120.0037.310.00-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.120.0030.910.00-0.05
HofstraCAA0.000.1275.0056.120.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.120.0061.460.000.03
BaylorB120.000.12100.0061.110.000.03
MarquetteBE0.000.1250.0050.870.000.00
RiderMAAC0.000.1266.6755.210.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1233.3348.640.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.000.120.0052.900.000.01
FordhamA100.000.1033.3336.170.00-0.03
MassachusettsA100.000.1050.0042.160.00-0.02
USCP120.000.10100.0073.190.000.05
ConnecticutAmer0.000.10100.0056.360.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.10100.0071.700.000.04
Penn St.B100.000.10100.0060.400.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0966.6762.150.000.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.090.0044.500.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0975.0051.210.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.09100.0074.500.000.05
WoffordSC0.000.090.0039.740.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.090.0046.080.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.090.0029.620.00-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.000.090.0039.010.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.090.0035.760.00-0.03
TempleAmer0.000.09100.0056.600.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.090.0050.360.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.090.0032.770.00-0.03
RichmondA100.000.090.0030.280.00-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.090.0035.450.00-0.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0950.0038.730.00-0.02
Texas TechB120.000.09100.0062.630.000.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0966.6768.790.000.03
St. John'sBE0.000.09100.0054.590.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.09100.0067.950.000.03
William & MaryCAA0.000.0933.3335.210.00-0.03
XavierBE2.080.09100.0078.992.080.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0022.840.00-0.05
UCLAP121.560.09100.0064.911.560.03
NebraskaB100.000.0966.6740.070.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0925.0047.800.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0933.3359.680.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.09100.0054.680.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.08100.0066.990.000.03
BYUWCC0.000.0766.6767.320.000.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0733.3338.050.00-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0750.0048.410.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0766.6768.320.000.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.07100.0088.360.000.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0022.610.00-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.060.0026.180.00-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0023.910.00-0.03
AuburnSEC0.000.0666.6750.670.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0666.6773.200.000.03
LipscombASun0.000.0633.3349.220.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0018.970.00-0.04
North FloridaASun0.000.060.0036.690.00-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0050.450.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0033.850.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0044.630.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0633.3333.620.00-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0035.610.00-0.02
AmericanPat0.000.060.0030.350.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.06100.0070.080.000.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0666.6753.390.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0650.0039.640.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0666.6749.990.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.06100.0061.010.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.06100.0068.200.000.02
MarylandB100.000.06100.0071.740.000.03
BradleyMVC0.000.0675.0048.770.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.000.0633.3331.290.00-0.02
DrexelCAA0.000.0633.3339.360.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0633.3350.840.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0058.070.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.060.0048.070.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.060.0031.810.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0028.770.00-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0042.850.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0025.140.00-0.03
TowsonCAA0.000.0650.0066.710.000.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0650.0050.360.000.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0633.3334.560.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0018.400.00-0.04
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0059.240.000.01
KansasB120.000.06100.0082.910.000.04
Kansas St.B120.000.06100.0062.930.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0650.0077.820.000.03
OklahomaB120.000.06100.0060.070.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0059.540.000.01
PurdueB100.000.06100.0085.360.000.04
TexasB120.000.06100.0063.830.000.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0666.6771.200.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0650.0050.670.000.00
RutgersB100.000.06100.0046.880.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.06100.0054.960.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.06100.0053.240.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.060.0036.070.00-0.02
WagnerNEC0.000.0666.6749.940.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0625.0035.000.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.03100.0064.470.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.03100.0046.080.00-0.00
MercerSC0.000.0375.0076.250.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0366.6763.220.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3347.970.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0333.3350.150.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0046.410.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.03100.0054.140.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.0350.0046.810.00-0.00
George MasonA100.000.0375.0048.930.00-0.00
VCUA100.000.0366.6766.590.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.030.0042.670.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0333.3335.310.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0333.3347.670.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.000.0350.0059.440.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0086.180.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0333.3335.150.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0366.6748.280.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0049.250.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0366.6746.830.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.03100.0070.960.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0333.3348.480.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.0016.000.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0333.3329.980.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.03100.0061.780.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.030.0056.560.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.03100.0071.560.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0366.6766.020.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.030.0055.380.000.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0375.0071.560.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.007.670.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.000.030.0044.830.00-0.00
IndianaB100.000.0333.3341.220.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.03100.0058.250.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.03100.0066.010.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0333.3346.880.00-0.00
MichiganB100.000.03100.0061.710.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.03100.0060.010.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.03100.0078.910.000.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0350.0050.570.000.00
Ohio St.B100.000.03100.0059.870.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.03100.0076.260.000.02
South DakotaSum0.000.0366.6767.630.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.030.0064.600.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.030.0045.040.00-0.00
DukeACC0.000.03100.0083.580.000.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0078.160.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0350.0036.640.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.03100.0048.350.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0350.0035.330.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0375.0061.940.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.030.0041.210.00-0.00