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Through games of Feb 12, 2016.


Yale

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:56.2
Current RPI:67
Expected SOS:174
Current SOS:175
Current Record:15-5
Expected Record:20-7
Current Conf Record:7-0
Expected Conf Record:12-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-0
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:85
Expected OOC SOS:182



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-537.69.97%
21-647.933.91%
20-759.134.75%
19-870.317.00%
18-983.63.80%
17-1097.50.54%
16-11119.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Yale.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Fairfield (173.8)MAACN70-57W100%0.0
11-16Sacred Heart (280.0)NECH99-77W100%0.0
11-19Lehigh (195.9)PatA67-79W100%0.0
11-22SMU (16.3)AmerA71-69L0%0.0
11-25Duke (17.5)ACCA80-61L0%0.0
11-29Albany (96.6)AEA88-54L0%0.0
12-2Bryant (320.9)NECH79-40W100%0.0
12-5Vermont (161.2)AEH72-54W100%0.0
12-9Illinois (157.1)B10A69-65L0%0.0
12-13USC (23.9)P12A68-56L0%0.0
12-30Central Connecticut (350.6)NECA42-62W100%0.0
1-2Hartford (319.5)AEA53-88W100%0.0
1-6NJIT (184.6)ASunH83-65W100%0.0
1-16Brown (294.7)IvyH77-68W100%0.0
1-22Brown (294.7)IvyA66-90W100%0.0
1-29Penn (278.4)IvyH81-58W100%0.0
1-30Princeton (48.1)IvyH79-75W100%0.0
2-5Columbia (123.0)IvyH86-72W100%0.0
2-6Cornell (213.4)IvyH83-52W100%0.0
2-12Dartmouth (294.2)IvyA65-75W100%0.0
2-13Harvard (208.9)IvyA0-072%6.2
2-19Princeton (48.1)IvyA0-038%-3.2
2-20Penn (278.4)IvyA0-084%10.6
2-26Harvard (208.9)IvyH0-088%12.9
2-27Dartmouth (294.2)IvyH0-095%18.1
3-4Cornell (213.4)IvyA0-088%12.9
3-5Columbia (123.0)IvyA0-062%3.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Yale's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Yale's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Yale.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
YaleIvy26.2326.3581.7182.2616.6417.00
DartmouthIvy2.954.6431.5833.49-1.09-1.53
ColumbiaIvy3.034.6271.4369.031.301.76
BrownIvy5.414.6133.3332.98-1.80-1.57
HarvardIvy0.604.5838.1040.59-0.14-0.86
PennIvy2.864.5438.8939.63-0.64-0.94
CornellIvy2.924.5442.1141.65-0.46-0.76
PrincetonIvy2.824.5177.7879.481.562.66
BryantNEC2.902.2125.0025.78-1.45-1.07
Central ConnecticutNEC2.892.1513.0413.74-2.14-1.56
VermontAE2.712.1154.1756.730.230.28
HartfordAE2.762.1125.0025.40-1.38-1.04
AlbanyAE2.762.0872.0072.861.220.95
Sacred HeartNEC2.702.0434.7837.60-0.82-0.51
FairfieldMAAC2.672.0256.5255.970.350.24
NJITASun2.601.9558.3357.630.430.30
SMUAmer2.631.9286.3682.341.911.24
LehighPat2.561.9240.9144.42-0.46-0.21
DukeACC2.551.8873.9170.871.220.79
IllinoisB102.501.8543.4842.20-0.33-0.29
USCP122.501.8573.9170.181.200.75
New HampshireAE0.490.3859.0956.880.090.05
Stony BrookAE0.430.3882.6183.030.280.25
LafayettePat0.400.3720.8321.68-0.23-0.21
Robert MorrisNEC0.430.3526.9228.60-0.20-0.15
BinghamtonAE0.430.3524.0026.42-0.22-0.17
MaineAE0.440.3532.0031.17-0.16-0.13
UMass LowellAE0.460.3537.5037.68-0.12-0.09
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.360.3043.4844.24-0.05-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.330.2941.6739.59-0.05-0.06
St. Francis PANEC0.410.2952.1751.840.020.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.410.2840.0043.49-0.08-0.04
MaristMAAC0.340.2621.7424.25-0.19-0.13
ProvidenceBE0.330.2672.0069.130.140.10
LIU BrooklynNEC0.270.2650.0051.280.000.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.270.2652.1753.740.010.02
SienaMAAC0.310.2565.3864.920.100.08
CanisiusMAAC0.230.2342.3144.49-0.04-0.03
BucknellPat0.280.2352.1754.970.010.02
NiagaraMAAC0.330.2223.0823.85-0.18-0.12
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.260.2242.3146.12-0.04-0.02
WagnerNEC0.260.2260.8762.520.060.06
UMBCAE0.250.2223.0825.89-0.13-0.10
Saint Joseph'sA100.190.2083.3381.270.130.13
HowardMEAC0.120.2036.3638.95-0.03-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.210.2056.0056.500.020.03
MonmouthMAAC0.270.1980.7781.890.170.12
QuinnipiacMAAC0.250.1934.7834.94-0.08-0.06
ColgatePat0.160.1743.4844.88-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.220.1638.4641.36-0.05-0.03
NorthwesternB100.160.1664.0062.090.050.04
NavyPat0.120.1364.0064.470.030.04
LipscombASun0.170.1328.0030.50-0.07-0.05
LongwoodBSth0.120.1321.7424.59-0.07-0.07
SyracuseACC0.170.1368.0064.070.060.04
WoffordSC0.060.1345.8348.12-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.230.1356.0052.860.030.01
StanfordP120.120.1347.6244.07-0.01-0.02
WashingtonP120.170.1362.5060.140.040.03
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1329.1726.68-0.04-0.06
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1370.8370.130.040.05
ManhattanMAAC0.160.1345.4543.17-0.01-0.02
North FloridaASun0.150.1262.5064.110.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.210.1220.0019.72-0.12-0.08
HamptonMEAC0.120.1059.0961.290.020.02
TempleAmer0.120.1065.2262.360.040.02
Georgia TechACC0.110.1054.1751.980.010.00
MarylandB100.070.1087.5083.680.050.07
Miami FLACC0.120.1082.6177.600.080.05
PittsburghACC0.060.1072.7367.600.030.03
ArmyPat0.100.1054.1754.290.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.160.1033.3335.19-0.05-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.050.1048.0048.59-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.0929.1733.75-0.05-0.03
PurdueB100.160.0980.0077.900.090.05
KentuckySEC0.150.0975.0072.620.080.04
RutgersB100.100.0921.7420.33-0.06-0.05
MichiganB100.160.0970.8366.750.070.03
LouisvilleACC0.100.0979.1776.000.060.05
North CarolinaACC0.050.0983.3378.390.030.05
IndianaB100.100.0980.0075.690.060.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.130.0731.8236.13-0.05-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0766.6767.660.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.079.0912.25-0.05-0.05
DrexelCAA0.070.0713.0416.41-0.05-0.05
George MasonA100.070.0733.3333.62-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.070.0719.0520.30-0.04-0.04
LibertyBSth0.070.0734.7836.54-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0743.4850.67-0.010.00
Rhode IslandA100.130.0756.0055.750.020.01
Seton HallBE0.060.0770.8368.090.030.02
VillanovaBE0.070.0787.5086.850.050.05
AmericanPat0.110.0729.1731.18-0.05-0.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0739.1335.44-0.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.0768.0070.260.000.03
KansasB120.000.0782.6179.210.000.04
MassachusettsA100.000.0743.4842.42-0.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0786.9682.620.000.04
DelawareCAA0.060.0625.0024.91-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0650.0052.880.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0647.8348.57-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.060.0658.3356.290.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.0625.0026.38-0.05-0.03
StetsonASun0.100.0622.7327.37-0.05-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.050.0621.7422.42-0.03-0.04
VirginiaACC0.050.0683.3378.460.040.04
Kent St.MAC0.100.0665.2260.710.030.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0672.0071.570.020.03
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0641.6739.50-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.110.0670.8367.980.050.02
IonaMAAC0.100.0660.8760.730.020.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0658.3359.310.010.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0636.0034.84-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.110.0666.6764.730.040.02
BuffaloMAC0.100.0654.1754.420.010.01
ColoradoP120.050.0670.8365.570.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.100.0645.4551.69-0.010.00
ArizonaP120.050.0680.0078.730.030.03
Arizona St.P120.100.0656.0053.630.010.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0625.0027.25-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.0650.0048.970.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.100.0670.8367.910.040.02
Ohio St.B100.100.0660.0055.570.020.01
OregonP120.050.0679.1777.220.030.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0663.6458.770.010.01
UCLAP120.100.0654.1752.980.010.00
UtahP120.050.0670.8368.530.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0641.6739.90-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.100.0634.7831.64-0.03-0.02
WisconsinB100.050.0662.5056.990.010.01
FordhamA100.050.0352.3850.690.000.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0366.6766.780.020.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0325.0023.43-0.03-0.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0362.5057.720.010.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0340.0043.21-0.01-0.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0366.6766.320.020.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.0379.1777.510.000.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0318.1821.06-0.03-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.039.0917.13-0.04-0.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0334.7832.39-0.02-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0345.0049.16-0.01-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0372.7370.390.020.01
TCUB120.050.0345.8339.36-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.050.0350.0044.640.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.050.0328.5734.10-0.02-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0331.8230.08-0.02-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0366.6764.780.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0383.3383.710.030.02
Chicago St.WAC0.050.034.357.71-0.05-0.03
ClemsonACC0.050.0358.3358.410.010.01
ElonCAA0.050.0350.0050.080.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0366.6763.330.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0342.8641.32-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.050.0356.5255.330.010.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.039.5210.67-0.04-0.02
IowaB100.050.0379.1778.890.030.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0370.8367.960.020.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0347.8351.93-0.000.00
Michigan St.B100.050.0380.0081.550.030.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0333.3330.27-0.02-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0352.0050.770.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.050.0358.3360.710.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0360.8759.830.010.01
Penn St.B100.000.0350.0046.760.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.050.0330.4328.20-0.02-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0316.6719.49-0.03-0.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0344.0043.56-0.01-0.00
UABCUSA0.050.0383.3379.820.030.02
Utah St.MWC0.050.0347.6249.27-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.050.0370.8371.030.020.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0352.0048.910.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0331.8234.54-0.02-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0373.9176.700.020.02
XavierBE0.050.0387.5081.840.040.02