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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Yale

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:147.0
Current RPI:147
Expected SOS:168
Current SOS:168
Current Record:14-13
Expected Record:14-13
Current Conf Record:9-5
Expected Conf Record:9-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-2
Current OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC RPI:191
Expected OOC SOS:165



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-13147.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Yale.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Central Connecticut (293.0)NECN77-93W100%0.0
11-11Connecticut (22.0)AmerA80-62L0%0.0
11-14Rutgers (192.0)AmerA72-71L0%0.0
11-19Sacred Heart (338.0)NECH80-65W100%0.0
11-23Mercer (81.0)ASunA81-54L0%0.0
11-26Lafayette (258.0)PatA76-79W100%0.0
11-30Hartford (234.0)AEA49-54W100%0.0
12-4Bryant (177.0)NECH64-72L0%0.0
12-7New Hampshire (340.0)AEH71-61W100%0.0
12-17Providence (40.0)BEA76-74L0%0.0
12-20Albany (185.0)AEA70-62L0%0.0
1-4Saint Louis (27.0)A10A75-55L0%0.0
1-8Vermont (101.0)AEH59-67L0%0.0
1-18Brown (229.0)IvyH74-67W100%0.0
1-25Brown (229.0)IvyA73-56L0%0.0
1-31Columbia (130.0)IvyH69-59W100%0.0
2-1Cornell (334.0)IvyH61-57W100%0.0
2-7Dartmouth (266.0)IvyA54-67W100%0.0
2-8Harvard (46.0)IvyA67-74W100%0.0
2-14Penn (284.0)IvyH69-54W100%0.0
2-15Princeton (122.0)IvyH66-65W100%0.0
2-21Cornell (334.0)IvyA65-82W100%0.0
2-23Columbia (130.0)IvyA62-46L0%0.0
2-28Princeton (122.0)IvyA57-46L0%0.0
3-1Penn (284.0)IvyA63-70W100%0.0
3-7Harvard (46.0)IvyH58-70L0%0.0
3-8Dartmouth (266.0)IvyH61-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Yale's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Yale's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Yale.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
YaleIvy26.3226.3255.2855.282.782.78
BrownIvy4.684.6852.0052.000.190.19
DartmouthIvy4.624.6237.5037.50-1.15-1.15
HarvardIvy4.604.6088.8988.893.583.58
PrincetonIvy4.564.5672.0072.002.012.01
PennIvy4.544.5430.7730.77-1.75-1.75
ColumbiaIvy4.524.5260.7160.710.970.97
CornellIvy4.504.504.004.00-4.14-4.14
New HampshireAE2.292.2917.8617.86-1.47-1.47
VermontAE2.282.2865.5265.520.710.71
BryantNEC2.242.2453.3353.330.150.15
HartfordAE2.172.1753.1253.120.140.14
Sacred HeartNEC2.132.1316.6716.67-1.42-1.42
AlbanyAE2.132.1354.8454.840.210.21
Central ConnecticutNEC2.102.1035.7135.71-0.60-0.60
LafayettePat2.022.0234.4834.48-0.63-0.63
RutgersAmer1.971.9732.2632.26-0.70-0.70
ConnecticutAmer1.971.9775.7675.761.021.02
ProvidenceBE1.951.9566.6766.670.650.65
MercerASun1.851.8573.3373.330.860.86
Saint LouisA101.851.8580.0080.001.111.11
UMass LowellAE0.440.4433.3333.33-0.15-0.15
BinghamtonAE0.430.4323.3323.33-0.23-0.23
Stony BrookAE0.430.4368.7568.750.160.16
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.370.3731.0331.03-0.14-0.14
MaineAE0.370.3717.8617.86-0.23-0.23
WagnerNEC0.310.3160.0060.000.060.06
St. Francis NYNEC0.280.2854.8454.840.030.03
Holy CrossPat0.270.2759.3859.380.050.05
UMBCAE0.270.2727.5927.59-0.12-0.12
LouisvilleAmer0.270.2785.2985.290.190.19
St. Francis PANEC0.220.2232.2632.26-0.08-0.08
BucknellPat0.220.2253.3353.330.010.01
ColgatePat0.220.2240.0040.00-0.04-0.04
NJITind0.220.2236.0036.00-0.06-0.06
St. John'sBE0.210.2162.5062.500.050.05
George MasonA100.190.1935.4835.48-0.06-0.06
AmericanPat0.190.1962.5062.500.050.05
Loyola MDPat0.190.1934.4834.48-0.06-0.06
Boston UniversityPat0.180.1870.5970.590.080.08
Robert MorrisNEC0.180.1861.7661.760.040.04
TempleAmer0.180.1829.0329.03-0.07-0.07
Seton HallBE0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.160.1641.9441.94-0.03-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.150.1531.0331.03-0.06-0.06
ArmyPat0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.150.1587.5087.500.110.11
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
La SalleA100.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.150.1522.5822.58-0.08-0.08
South FloridaAmer0.140.1437.5037.50-0.04-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.140.1414.2914.29-0.10-0.10
CincinnatiAmer0.140.1481.8281.820.090.09
MemphisAmer0.140.1470.9770.970.060.06
NiagaraMAAC0.130.1321.2121.21-0.08-0.08
Penn St.B100.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.130.1317.8617.86-0.09-0.09
PortlandWCC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
FordhamA100.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
ButlerBE0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.120.1243.7543.75-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
HoustonAmer0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
SMUAmer0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
UCFAmer0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
MaristMAAC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
HofstraCAA0.090.0930.3030.30-0.04-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0935.7135.71-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
MarquetteBE0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0921.8821.88-0.05-0.05
CreightonBE0.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
IllinoisB100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
IPFWSum0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
IowaB100.070.0761.2961.290.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
ColoradoP120.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.060.0677.7877.780.040.04
HowardMEAC0.060.0619.3519.35-0.04-0.04
TCUB120.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
ElonSC0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
IdahoWAC0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Michigan St.B100.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
LipscombASun0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
VCUA100.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
George WashingtonA100.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
MassachusettsA100.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
DePaulBE0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
MarylandACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
XavierBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
DukeACC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
OhioMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
WisconsinB100.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
WoffordSC0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
IndianaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
StanfordP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01