Yale

Conference:	Ivy
Expected RPI:	198.0
Current RPI:	198
Expected SOS:	174
Current SOS:	174
Current Record:	12-17
Expected Record:	12-17
Current Conf Record:	8-6
Expected Conf Record:	8-6
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-6
Current OOC Record:	4-11
Expected OOC Record:	4-11
Expected OOC RPI:	208
Expected OOC SOS:	91

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-17	198.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Yale.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Sacred Heart (253.0)	NEC	N	85-82	L	0%
11-12	Saint Joseph's (82.0)	A10	A	61-35	L	0%
11-16	Evansville (106.0)	MVC	A	66-56	L	0%
11-17	Buffalo (215.0)	MAC	N	63-59	W	100%
11-18	Western Illinois (122.0)	Sum	N	59-47	L	0%
11-21	Vermont (134.0)	AE	A	65-52	L	0%
11-24	Army (205.0)	Pat	H	86-83	W	100%
11-29	Hartford (187.0)	AE	H	51-60	L	0%
12-5	Bryant (158.0)	NEC	A	62-64	W	100%
12-8	New Hampshire (293.0)	AE	A	64-56	L	0%
12-28	Nevada (171.0)	MWC	A	85-75	L	0%
12-30	St. Mary's (29.0)	WCC	A	78-62	L	0%
1-1	Iowa St. (41.0)	B12	A	80-70	L	0%
1-4	Holy Cross (251.0)	Pat	A	54-61	W	100%
1-6	Florida (7.0)	SEC	H	58-79	L	0%
1-19	Brown (241.0)	Ivy	A	65-51	L	0%
1-26	Brown (241.0)	Ivy	H	76-64	W	100%
2-1	Harvard (93.0)	Ivy	A	67-64	L	0%
2-2	Dartmouth (294.0)	Ivy	A	71-62	L	0%
2-8	Pennsylvania (280.0)	Ivy	A	59-68	W	100%
2-9	Princeton (124.0)	Ivy	A	65-69	W	100%
2-15	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	H	61-68	L	0%
2-16	Columbia (273.0)	Ivy	H	75-56	W	100%
2-22	Dartmouth (294.0)	Ivy	H	78-67	W	100%
2-23	Harvard (93.0)	Ivy	H	66-72	L	0%
3-1	Columbia (273.0)	Ivy	A	59-46	L	0%
3-2	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	A	70-79	W	100%
3-8	Princeton (124.0)	Ivy	H	71-66	W	100%
3-9	Pennsylvania (280.0)	Ivy	H	79-65	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Yale's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Yale's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Yale.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Yale	Ivy	26.29	26.29	44.96	44.96	-2.65	-2.65
Dartmouth	Ivy	4.33	4.33	28.00	28.00	-1.91	-1.91
Harvard	Ivy	4.30	4.30	64.00	64.00	1.20	1.20
Brown	Ivy	4.28	4.28	44.00	44.00	-0.51	-0.51
Columbia	Ivy	4.24	4.24	37.50	37.50	-1.06	-1.06
Pennsylvania	Ivy	4.23	4.23	31.03	31.03	-1.61	-1.61
Princeton	Ivy	4.22	4.22	64.00	64.00	1.18	1.18
Cornell	Ivy	4.20	4.20	39.29	39.29	-0.90	-0.90
Holy Cross	Pat	2.06	2.06	41.38	41.38	-0.36	-0.36
New Hampshire	AE	2.05	2.05	25.93	25.93	-0.99	-0.99
Vermont	AE	2.00	2.00	64.52	64.52	0.58	0.58
Bryant	NEC	1.97	1.97	65.52	65.52	0.61	0.61
Army	Pat	1.94	1.94	51.72	51.72	0.07	0.07
Sacred Heart	NEC	1.90	1.90	28.57	28.57	-0.82	-0.82
Hartford	AE	1.90	1.90	55.17	55.17	0.20	0.20
Buffalo	MAC	1.85	1.85	38.71	38.71	-0.42	-0.42
Saint Joseph's	A10	1.84	1.84	56.67	56.67	0.25	0.25
St. Mary's	WCC	1.79	1.79	80.65	80.65	1.10	1.10
Evansville	MVC	1.78	1.78	53.33	53.33	0.12	0.12
Western Illinois	Sum	1.78	1.78	70.37	70.37	0.72	0.72
Florida	SEC	1.72	1.72	78.12	78.12	0.97	0.97
Iowa St.	B12	1.72	1.72	65.62	65.62	0.54	0.54
Nevada	MWC	1.72	1.72	34.48	34.48	-0.54	-0.54
Binghamton	AE	0.41	0.41	6.90	6.90	-0.35	-0.35
Bucknell	Pat	0.40	0.40	84.38	84.38	0.27	0.27
Maine	AE	0.36	0.36	34.48	34.48	-0.11	-0.11
Colgate	Pat	0.33	0.33	34.38	34.38	-0.10	-0.10
American	Pat	0.30	0.30	33.33	33.33	-0.10	-0.10
Boston University	AE	0.29	0.29	58.62	58.62	0.05	0.05
Lafayette	Pat	0.29	0.29	54.55	54.55	0.03	0.03
Stony Brook	AE	0.29	0.29	76.67	76.67	0.15	0.15
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.28	0.28	23.33	23.33	-0.15	-0.15
Albany	AE	0.26	0.26	70.59	70.59	0.11	0.11
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.24	0.24	43.33	43.33	-0.03	-0.03
Fordham	A10	0.24	0.24	22.58	22.58	-0.13	-0.13
Lehigh	Pat	0.23	0.23	68.97	68.97	0.09	0.09
Boston College	ACC	0.22	0.22	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.21	0.21	61.29	61.29	0.05	0.05
Elon	SC	0.19	0.19	63.33	63.33	0.05	0.05
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.18	0.18	40.00	40.00	-0.04	-0.04
San Francisco	WCC	0.18	0.18	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.17	0.17	17.24	17.24	-0.11	-0.11
Drexel	CAA	0.17	0.17	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.17	0.17	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.16	0.16	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Long Island	NEC	0.15	0.15	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.15	0.15	63.64	63.64	0.04	0.04
Villanova	BE	0.15	0.15	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.15	0.15	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.15	0.15	27.59	27.59	-0.07	-0.07
Kent St.	MAC	0.14	0.14	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.14	0.14	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Navy	Pat	0.14	0.14	23.33	23.33	-0.08	-0.08
La Salle	A10	0.14	0.14	70.00	70.00	0.06	0.06
Drake	MVC	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.12	0.12	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Connecticut	BE	0.12	0.12	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Longwood	BSth	0.12	0.12	19.35	19.35	-0.07	-0.07
Providence	BE	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.12	0.12	73.53	73.53	0.06	0.06
Akron	MAC	0.12	0.12	80.65	80.65	0.07	0.07
Robert Morris	NEC	0.12	0.12	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.12	0.12	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.12	0.12	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.11	0.11	22.58	22.58	-0.06	-0.06
Air Force	MWC	0.11	0.11	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.11	0.11	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Butler	A10	0.11	0.11	75.76	75.76	0.06	0.06
Delaware	CAA	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.11	0.11	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Temple	A10	0.11	0.11	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Rutgers	BE	0.09	0.09	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.09	0.09	13.79	13.79	-0.07	-0.07
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.09	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
South Dakota	Sum	0.09	0.09	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Massachusetts	A10	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Northeastern	CAA	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.09	0.09	22.58	22.58	-0.05	-0.05
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.09	0.09	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.09	0.09	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Western Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.08	0.08	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.08	0.08	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Pacific	BW	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Florida St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.08	0.08	93.75	93.75	0.07	0.07
San Diego	WCC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Kansas	B12	0.08	0.08	85.29	85.29	0.06	0.06
Oklahoma	B12	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Furman	SC	0.07	0.07	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
California	P12	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
Northwestern	B10	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.06	0.06	74.29	74.29	0.03	0.03
IUPUI	Sum	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.05	-0.05
Oakland	Sum	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.06	28.00	28.00	-0.03	-0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Monmouth	NEC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.06	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Fresno St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Presbyterian	BSth	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.06	0.06	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Wichita St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Xavier	A10	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Christian	B12	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.02	0.02
Southern Utah	BSky	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Utah St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01