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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Yale

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:183.0
Current RPI:183
Expected SOS:235
Current SOS:235
Current Record:15-15
Expected Record:15-15
Current Conf Record:9-6
Expected Conf Record:9-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-2
Current OOC Record:6-9
Expected OOC Record:6-9
Expected OOC RPI:196
Expected OOC SOS:214



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-15183.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Yale.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Creighton (44.0)BEA92-76L0%0.0
11-12Wisconsin (114.0)B10A89-61L0%0.0
11-14South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACH86-54W100%0.0
11-17Albany (142.0)AEA80-72L0%0.0
11-22Alcorn St. (348.0)SWACA73-87W100%0.0
11-25Vermont (60.0)AEH73-79L0%0.0
11-27Delaware (233.0)CAAA66-76W100%0.0
11-29Bryant (341.0)NECH84-67W100%0.0
12-2TCU (26.0)B12A92-66L0%0.0
12-6Lehigh (214.0)PatA77-86W100%0.0
12-9St. Bonaventure (24.0)A10A75-67L0%0.0
12-12Iona (107.0)MAACA83-67L0%0.0
12-22Monmouth (199.0)MAACH64-85L0%0.0
12-30Kennesaw St. (301.0)ASunA74-89W100%0.0
1-6Georgia Tech (161.0)ACCA74-60L0%0.0
1-12Brown (298.0)IvyH78-72W100%0.0
1-19Brown (298.0)IvyA81-80L0%0.0
1-26Harvard (117.0)IvyH52-54L0%0.0
1-27Dartmouth (334.0)IvyH74-64W100%0.0
2-2Princeton (226.0)IvyA76-73L0%0.0
2-3Penn (112.0)IvyA59-50L0%0.0
2-9Columbia (316.0)IvyH88-84W100%0.0
2-10Cornell (248.0)IvyH74-65W100%0.0
2-16Dartmouth (334.0)IvyA65-77W100%0.0
2-17Harvard (117.0)IvyA64-49L0%0.0
2-23Cornell (248.0)IvyA80-82W100%0.0
2-24Columbia (316.0)IvyA73-83W100%0.0
3-2Penn (112.0)IvyH80-79W100%0.0
3-3Princeton (226.0)IvyH94-90W100%0.0
3-10Penn (112.0)IvyA80-57L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Yale's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Yale's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Yale.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
YaleIvy26.3826.3856.1556.153.253.25
PennIvy5.825.8275.0075.002.912.91
HarvardIvy4.294.2953.5753.570.310.31
CornellIvy4.194.1944.0044.00-0.50-0.50
DartmouthIvy4.184.1825.0025.00-2.09-2.09
PrincetonIvy4.174.1742.3142.31-0.64-0.64
BrownIvy4.134.1337.5037.50-1.03-1.03
ColumbiaIvy4.134.1329.1729.17-1.72-1.72
AlbanyAE1.921.9266.6766.670.640.64
MonmouthMAAC1.911.9133.3333.33-0.64-0.64
VermontAE1.871.8778.1278.121.051.05
BryantNEC1.821.8210.0010.00-1.46-1.46
LehighPat1.751.7553.5753.570.130.13
IonaMAAC1.751.7559.3859.380.330.33
DelawareCAA1.731.7340.0040.00-0.35-0.35
St. BonaventureA101.721.7277.4277.420.940.94
CreightonBE1.701.7063.3363.330.450.45
WisconsinB101.691.6943.7543.75-0.21-0.21
Alcorn St.SWAC1.691.6925.9325.93-0.82-0.82
TCUB121.691.6964.5264.520.490.49
South Carolina St.MEAC1.691.6927.5927.59-0.76-0.76
Georgia TechACC1.671.6738.7138.71-0.38-0.38
Kennesaw St.ASun1.671.6729.6329.63-0.68-0.68
Stony BrookAE0.280.2838.7138.71-0.06-0.06
QuinnipiacMAAC0.270.2736.3636.36-0.07-0.07
LafayettePat0.260.2630.0030.00-0.10-0.10
MaineAE0.260.2613.3313.33-0.19-0.19
NavyPat0.260.2661.2961.290.060.06
UMass LowellAE0.260.2637.9337.93-0.06-0.06
NortheasternCAA0.250.2568.7568.750.090.09
Saint Joseph'sA100.250.2550.0050.000.000.00
SienaMAAC0.240.2425.0025.00-0.12-0.12
CanisiusMAAC0.220.2265.6265.620.070.07
ColgatePat0.210.2158.0658.060.030.03
FairfieldMAAC0.210.2151.5251.520.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.210.2155.8855.880.020.02
VillanovaBE0.200.2088.2488.240.150.15
New HampshireAE0.200.2027.5927.59-0.09-0.09
NiagaraMAAC0.190.1959.3859.380.040.04
ManhattanMAAC0.190.1945.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.170.1746.6746.67-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.170.1731.0331.03-0.06-0.06
Holy CrossPat0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.160.1643.7543.75-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.150.1513.3313.33-0.11-0.11
NJITASun0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.140.1419.3519.35-0.09-0.09
ProvidenceBE0.140.1461.7661.760.030.03
Notre DameACC0.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
ButlerBE0.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
ToledoMAC0.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
Rhode IslandA100.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
George WashingtonA100.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.140.1437.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.140.146.676.67-0.12-0.12
TowsonCAA0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
BaylorB120.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
VirginiaACC0.130.1393.9493.940.120.12
HartfordAE0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
UMBCAE0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
ArmyPat0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Central ConnecticutNEC0.120.1243.7543.75-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
HofstraCAA0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
BucknellPat0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
HowardMEAC0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
KentuckySEC0.110.1170.5970.590.040.04
DaytonA100.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
TempleAmer0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
MarquetteBE0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
RiderMAAC0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
RichmondA100.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
USCP120.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
USC UpstateASun0.090.0910.7110.71-0.07-0.07
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0944.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
Iowa St.B120.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0815.6215.62-0.06-0.06
FordhamA100.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
MassachusettsA100.080.0839.3939.39-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
MinnesotaB100.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
ElonCAA0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
UMKCWAC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
St. John'sBE0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.080.0884.8584.850.060.06
DavidsonA100.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Kansas St.B120.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
NebraskaB100.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
MarylandB100.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Michigan St.B100.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
AuburnSEC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
AkronMAC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.069.689.68-0.05-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
HawaiiBW0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
LipscombASun0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0612.5012.50-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
AmericanPat0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
KansasB120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
OklahomaB120.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TexasB120.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
PurdueB100.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
LSUSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
MercerSC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
DukeACC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
George MasonA100.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.033.333.33-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
IowaB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.030.0379.4179.410.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01