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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Yale

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:64.0
Current RPI:64
Expected SOS:122
Current SOS:122
Current Record:20-10
Expected Record:20-10
Current Conf Record:11-4
Expected Conf Record:11-4
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-1
Current OOC Record:9-6
Expected OOC Record:9-6
Expected OOC RPI:61
Expected OOC SOS:104



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1064.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Yale.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Quinnipiac (226.0)MAACA88-85L0%0.0
11-21Illinois Chicago (297.0)HorzN70-58W100%0.0
11-22Southern Illinois (278.0)MVCN46-53W100%0.0
11-23Kent St. (94.0)MACA59-66W100%0.0
11-26Lafayette (122.0)PatH82-60W100%0.0
11-28Providence (22.0)BEA72-66L0%0.0
11-30Hartford (244.0)AEH69-57W100%0.0
12-3Bryant (189.0)NECA60-67W100%0.0
12-5Connecticut (77.0)AmerA44-45W100%0.0
12-8Florida (72.0)SECA85-47L0%0.0
12-18Vermont (203.0)AEA56-57W100%0.0
12-20Albany (99.0)AEH60-64L0%0.0
12-30Sacred Heart (242.0)NECA64-70W100%0.0
1-3Vanderbilt (104.0)SECA79-74L0%0.0
1-9NJIT (159.0)indA78-71L0%0.0
1-17Brown (248.0)IvyA62-80W100%0.0
1-24Brown (248.0)IvyH69-65W100%0.0
1-30Columbia (196.0)IvyA59-63W100%0.0
1-31Cornell (227.0)IvyA57-65W100%0.0
2-6Dartmouth (186.0)IvyH81-66W100%0.0
2-7Harvard (52.0)IvyH50-52L0%0.0
2-13Penn (254.0)IvyA48-75W100%0.0
2-14Princeton (191.0)IvyA73-81W100%0.0
2-20Cornell (227.0)IvyH62-51W100%0.0
2-21Columbia (196.0)IvyH50-56L0%0.0
2-27Princeton (191.0)IvyH81-60W100%0.0
2-28Penn (254.0)IvyH55-50W100%0.0
3-6Harvard (52.0)IvyA52-62W100%0.0
3-7Dartmouth (186.0)IvyA59-58L0%0.0
3-14Harvard (52.0)IvyN51-53L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Yale's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Yale's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Yale.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
YaleIvy26.3926.3971.0571.0511.1111.11
HarvardIvy5.765.7675.0075.002.882.88
DartmouthIvy4.224.2250.0050.000.000.00
BrownIvy4.194.1940.7440.74-0.78-0.78
PennIvy4.164.1634.6234.62-1.28-1.28
PrincetonIvy4.144.1455.5655.560.460.46
ColumbiaIvy4.134.1344.0044.00-0.50-0.50
CornellIvy4.114.1144.4444.44-0.46-0.46
BryantNEC2.012.0153.3353.330.130.13
VermontAE1.981.9858.6258.620.340.34
AlbanyAE1.901.9074.1974.190.920.92
HartfordAE1.891.8946.4346.43-0.13-0.13
Sacred HeartNEC1.861.8646.6746.67-0.12-0.12
LafayettePat1.841.8463.3363.330.490.49
NJITind1.811.8154.1754.170.150.15
ConnecticutAmer1.781.7860.6160.610.380.38
VanderbiltSEC1.781.7856.6756.670.240.24
ProvidenceBE1.751.7565.6265.620.550.55
QuinnipiacMAAC1.751.7548.2848.28-0.06-0.06
FloridaSEC1.741.7446.8846.88-0.11-0.11
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.721.7225.8125.81-0.83-0.83
Southern IllinoisMVC1.721.7235.4835.48-0.50-0.50
Kent St.MAC1.721.7266.6766.670.570.57
UMass LowellAE0.430.4339.2939.29-0.09-0.09
Stony BrookAE0.430.4365.6265.620.130.13
New HampshireAE0.390.3958.6258.620.070.07
MaineAE0.350.3510.0010.00-0.28-0.28
Holy CrossPat0.320.3244.8344.83-0.03-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.310.3116.6716.67-0.20-0.20
WagnerNEC0.280.2831.0331.03-0.11-0.11
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.260.2647.0647.06-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.250.2525.0025.00-0.13-0.13
Central ConnecticutNEC0.250.2516.1316.13-0.17-0.17
UMBCAE0.230.2313.3313.33-0.17-0.17
ColgatePat0.230.2346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.200.2066.6766.670.070.07
RiderMAAC0.200.2065.6265.620.060.06
Boston UniversityPat0.200.2041.3841.38-0.03-0.03
AmericanPat0.200.2051.5251.520.010.01
KentuckySEC0.190.19100.00100.000.190.19
Loyola MDPat0.170.1736.6736.67-0.05-0.05
NiagaraMAAC0.170.1726.6726.67-0.08-0.08
VillanovaBE0.170.1794.1294.120.150.15
BucknellPat0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
SienaMAAC0.170.1735.4835.48-0.05-0.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.160.1657.5857.580.020.02
LehighPat0.140.1451.7251.720.000.00
MaristMAAC0.140.1421.8821.88-0.08-0.08
LIU BrooklynNEC0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
NavyPat0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
HoustonAmer0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.120.1252.9452.940.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
George MasonA100.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
La SalleA100.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
South CarolinaSEC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
TempleAmer0.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
AkronMAC0.110.1158.8258.820.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
SMUAmer0.100.1081.2581.250.060.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
VirginiaACC0.090.0990.6290.620.080.08
HowardMEAC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
MarquetteBE0.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
NorthwesternB100.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Saint LouisA100.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
ArmyPat0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
KansasB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0810.3410.34-0.06-0.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
BradleyMVC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Green BayHorz0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
Wright St.Horz0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
MississippiSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
DePaulBE0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
TulsaAmer0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
HofstraCAA0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
IPFWSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
MercerSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
CaliforniaP120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
DrexelCAA0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0658.3358.330.010.01
LibertyBSth0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.060.060.000.00-0.06-0.06
SyracuseACC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
IonaMAAC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Ball St.MAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
RutgersB100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
AuburnSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
DetroitHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0590.9190.910.040.04
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
West VirginiaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
DaytonA100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Miami FLACC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MichiganB100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
USCP120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
PurdueB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0227.2727.27-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
StanfordP120.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
TexasB120.020.0260.6160.610.010.01