Yale

Conference:	Ivy
Expected RPI:	117.5
Current RPI:	111
Expected SOS:	217
Current SOS:	260
Current Record:	13-5
Expected Record:	16-10
Current Conf Record:	5-1
Expected Conf Record:	8-6
Probability of Auto Bid:	1.19%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-1
Current OOC Record:	8-4
Expected OOC Record:	8-4
Expected OOC RPI:	101
Expected OOC SOS:	276

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
21-5	58.0	0.01%
20-6	70.8	0.74%
19-7	82.7	4.49%
18-8	94.9	15.24%
17-9	108.3	27.34%
16-10	122.4	28.73%
15-11	138.9	16.96%
14-12	158.3	5.71%
13-13	179.2	0.77%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Yale.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Central Connecticut (236.3)	NEC	N	69-73	W	100%	0.0
11-15	Quinnipiac (175.1)	NEC	A	68-62	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Seton Hall (53.1)	BE	A	73-62	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Army (293.1)	Pat	A	75-84	W	100%	0.0
11-29	Hartford (328.5)	AE	A	69-74	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Vermont (173.1)	AE	H	68-52	W	100%	0.0
12-5	Sacred Heart (242.3)	NEC	A	71-73	W	100%	0.0
12-7	Bryant (334.0)	NEC	H	76-59	W	100%	0.0
12-18	Rhode Island (250.6)	A10	A	65-68	W	100%	0.0
12-29	Wake Forest (171.6)	ACC	A	72-71	L	0%	0.0
12-31	Florida (14.9)	SEC	A	90-70	L	0%	0.0
1-3	Holy Cross (226.1)	Pat	H	82-67	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Brown (305.2)	Ivy	H	68-64	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Brown (305.2)	Ivy	A	60-73	W	100%	0.0
1-27	Harvard (36.7)	Ivy	H	35-65	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Dartmouth (320.3)	Ivy	H	62-52	W	100%	0.0
2-3	Pennsylvania (113.9)	Ivy	H	60-53	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Princeton (117.6)	Ivy	H	58-54	W	100%	0.0
2-10	Cornell (178.3)	Ivy	A	0-0		41%	-2.6
2-11	Columbia (150.3)	Ivy	A	0-0		38%	-3.3
2-17	Dartmouth (320.3)	Ivy	A	0-0		68%	5.2
2-18	Harvard (36.7)	Ivy	A	0-0		10%	-14.2
2-24	Columbia (150.3)	Ivy	H	0-0		62%	3.5
2-25	Cornell (178.3)	Ivy	H	0-0		65%	4.1
3-2	Princeton (117.6)	Ivy	A	0-0		30%	-5.8
3-3	Pennsylvania (113.9)	Ivy	A	0-0		29%	-6.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Yale's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Yale's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Yale.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Yale	Ivy	26.24	26.32	76.25	69.17	13.78	10.09
Brown	Ivy	6.12	4.81	30.00	25.50	-2.45	-2.36
Dartmouth	Ivy	3.28	4.78	15.00	17.27	-2.29	-3.13
Harvard	Ivy	3.16	4.71	90.00	87.37	2.52	3.52
Columbia	Ivy	0.33	4.68	55.00	55.19	0.03	0.49
Pennsylvania	Ivy	2.98	4.66	57.14	58.32	0.43	0.77
Princeton	Ivy	2.97	4.64	50.00	54.24	0.00	0.39
Cornell	Ivy	0.27	4.64	36.84	40.98	-0.07	-0.84
Bryant	NEC	3.28	2.28	8.70	11.23	-2.71	-1.77
Holy Cross	Pat	3.09	2.26	42.86	43.61	-0.44	-0.29
Sacred Heart	NEC	3.27	2.25	45.83	47.41	-0.27	-0.12
Central Connecticut	NEC	3.25	2.25	47.62	47.39	-0.15	-0.12
Hartford	AE	3.26	2.18	18.18	21.71	-2.07	-1.23
Quinnipiac	NEC	3.12	2.18	54.55	55.62	0.28	0.25
Vermont	AE	3.09	2.16	62.50	64.57	0.77	0.63
Army	Pat	3.03	2.12	42.86	43.26	-0.43	-0.29
Rhode Island	A10	2.90	1.99	21.74	21.29	-1.64	-1.14
Seton Hall	BE	2.84	1.96	63.64	62.48	0.77	0.49
Wake Forest	ACC	2.84	1.96	45.45	41.72	-0.26	-0.32
Florida	SEC	2.78	1.92	81.82	76.89	1.77	1.03
American	Pat	0.31	0.37	65.22	63.79	0.10	0.10
Lafayette	Pat	0.32	0.37	43.48	42.95	-0.04	-0.05
Bucknell	Pat	0.33	0.34	73.91	75.00	0.16	0.17
Boston University	AE	0.36	0.33	48.00	51.88	-0.01	0.01
Albany	AE	0.37	0.33	60.00	60.42	0.07	0.07
Wagner	NEC	0.37	0.33	82.61	84.57	0.24	0.23
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.49	0.33	56.52	55.95	0.06	0.04
New Hampshire	AE	0.54	0.32	35.00	38.58	-0.16	-0.07
Robert Morris	NEC	0.30	0.32	68.00	70.03	0.11	0.13
Colgate	Pat	0.25	0.31	30.43	29.50	-0.10	-0.13
Stony Brook	AE	0.17	0.30	66.67	68.05	0.06	0.11
Long Island	NEC	0.29	0.29	70.83	71.05	0.12	0.12
Lehigh	Pat	0.31	0.27	73.91	74.91	0.15	0.14
Rutgers	BE	0.26	0.26	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.24	0.26	21.74	22.76	-0.13	-0.14
Monmouth	NEC	0.43	0.26	28.00	28.91	-0.19	-0.11
Boston College	ACC	0.36	0.26	30.43	26.44	-0.14	-0.12
Maine	AE	0.36	0.26	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.18	0.23	0.00	4.02	-0.18	-0.22
Connecticut	BE	0.25	0.23	68.18	63.99	0.09	0.07
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.29	0.23	8.70	12.13	-0.24	-0.17
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.30	0.23	26.09	28.60	-0.14	-0.10
Marist	MAAC	0.24	0.23	34.78	33.43	-0.07	-0.08
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.24	0.22	13.64	16.35	-0.18	-0.15
Elon	SC	0.14	0.20	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.26	0.20	72.73	71.71	0.12	0.09
Longwood	ind	0.32	0.20	30.00	27.84	-0.13	-0.09
La Salle	A10	0.31	0.19	70.83	68.82	0.13	0.07
Manhattan	MAAC	0.19	0.19	68.00	69.07	0.07	0.07
Providence	BE	0.37	0.19	56.52	50.27	0.05	0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.19	0.19	62.50	62.49	0.05	0.05
Navy	Pat	0.19	0.17	9.52	13.19	-0.15	-0.13
Rider	MAAC	0.20	0.16	37.50	38.52	-0.05	-0.04
Notre Dame	BE	0.24	0.16	65.22	62.65	0.07	0.04
Buffalo	MAC	0.07	0.14	68.42	66.45	0.03	0.05
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.07	0.13	59.09	57.76	0.01	0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.06	0.13	47.83	50.65	-0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.06	0.13	60.00	59.06	0.01	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.19	0.13	70.83	64.42	0.08	0.04
Niagara	MAAC	0.18	0.13	37.50	41.54	-0.05	-0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.18	0.13	71.43	66.60	0.08	0.04
Massachusetts	A10	0.18	0.13	73.91	68.58	0.09	0.05
Fordham	A10	0.12	0.13	40.91	34.50	-0.02	-0.04
Duke	ACC	0.12	0.13	86.36	83.09	0.09	0.08
Penn St.	B10	0.06	0.10	41.67	38.67	-0.01	-0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.06	0.10	59.09	50.82	0.01	0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.13	0.10	56.52	53.77	0.02	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.13	0.10	47.83	48.56	-0.01	-0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.13	0.10	45.45	45.55	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.12	0.10	34.78	32.08	-0.04	-0.03
Dayton	A10	0.18	0.10	60.87	60.96	0.04	0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.18	0.10	76.00	72.50	0.10	0.04
Pittsburgh	BE	0.06	0.09	60.87	58.16	0.01	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.17	0.09	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Villanova	BE	0.12	0.09	45.45	46.08	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.12	0.09	40.00	40.18	-0.02	-0.02
Temple	A10	0.12	0.09	77.27	75.06	0.07	0.05
Illinois	B10	0.00	0.07	72.73	64.43	0.00	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.07	0.07	79.17	78.10	0.04	0.04
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.07	0.07	19.05	22.37	-0.05	-0.04
Furman	SC	0.00	0.07	47.62	48.83	-0.00	-0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	45.45	46.99	-0.01	-0.00
North Texas	SB	0.00	0.07	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.12	0.07	54.55	54.30	0.01	0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.12	0.07	33.33	38.38	-0.04	-0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.12	0.07	61.90	55.14	0.03	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	28.57	34.20	-0.03	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.07	0.07	36.36	39.72	-0.02	-0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.07	0.07	35.00	35.31	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	ind	0.07	0.07	23.53	33.28	-0.04	-0.02
Utah	P12	0.07	0.07	18.18	15.01	-0.04	-0.05
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.06	0.07	21.74	24.58	-0.03	-0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.06	0.06	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.00	0.06	39.13	42.12	-0.00	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.13	0.06	54.17	49.44	0.01	-0.00
Arizona	P12	0.12	0.06	66.67	68.55	0.04	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.06	0.06	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.12	0.06	52.38	46.68	0.01	-0.00
South Florida	BE	0.12	0.06	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.12	0.06	95.83	92.01	0.11	0.05
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.12	0.06	56.52	55.20	0.02	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.06	0.06	76.19	76.76	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.00	0.06	95.83	92.57	0.00	0.05
South Carolina	SEC	0.12	0.06	40.91	39.56	-0.02	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.06	0.06	77.27	77.67	0.03	0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.06	0.06	45.45	44.66	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.06	0.06	54.55	56.79	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.06	0.06	69.57	65.87	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.06	0.06	45.45	41.20	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.03	47.37	42.16	-0.00	-0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.06	0.03	58.33	59.98	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.06	0.03	76.19	72.91	0.03	0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.06	0.03	40.91	43.66	-0.01	-0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.03	19.05	24.61	-0.04	-0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.06	0.03	9.52	11.44	-0.05	-0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.06	0.03	30.43	31.43	-0.02	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.00	0.03	69.57	65.47	0.00	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.06	0.03	34.78	38.77	-0.02	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.00	0.03	80.95	77.38	0.00	0.02
Georgia Southern	SC	0.06	0.03	40.00	41.30	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.06	0.03	31.82	32.75	-0.02	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.06	0.03	78.26	72.66	0.03	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.06	0.03	77.27	73.45	0.03	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.03	79.17	75.98	0.04	0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.06	0.03	70.83	71.64	0.03	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.00	0.03	65.00	60.02	0.00	0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.06	0.03	39.13	36.10	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.03	86.96	83.16	0.04	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.03	38.89	43.93	-0.01	-0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.03	85.71	78.05	0.04	0.02
Southern Utah	Sum	0.06	0.03	45.45	44.30	-0.01	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.00	0.03	43.48	40.28	-0.00	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.06	0.03	31.82	25.98	-0.02	-0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.06	0.03	0.00	5.37	-0.06	-0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.00	0.03	81.82	76.80	0.00	0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.06	0.03	80.00	78.06	0.04	0.02
West Virginia	BE	0.06	0.03	65.22	65.17	0.02	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.03	59.09	57.93	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.00	0.03	68.18	69.10	0.00	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.00	0.03	69.57	65.15	0.00	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.00	0.03	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.06	0.03	81.82	80.43	0.04	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.03	59.09	56.35	0.01	0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.06	0.03	66.67	69.69	0.02	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.03	36.36	38.48	-0.02	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.03	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.06	0.03	79.17	80.10	0.03	0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.03	19.05	25.52	-0.04	-0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.03	17.39	22.00	-0.04	-0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.06	0.03	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.06	0.03	59.09	57.28	0.01	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.06	0.03	63.64	56.71	0.02	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.06	0.03	78.26	72.34	0.03	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.03	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.03	45.83	46.68	-0.01	-0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.03	86.96	85.46	0.04	0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.06	0.03	60.00	58.29	0.01	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.03	31.82	31.31	-0.02	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.06	0.03	60.87	61.37	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.06	0.03	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.00
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.03	4.00	5.26	-0.05	-0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.03	40.91	39.82	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.03	41.67	40.61	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.00	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.00	0.01