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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Presbyterian

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:315.0
Current RPI:315
Expected SOS:236
Current SOS:236
Current Record:6-22
Expected Record:6-22
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-9
Current OOC Record:0-9
Expected OOC Record:0-9
Expected OOC RPI:324
Expected OOC SOS:107



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
6-22315.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Presbyterian.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Duke (6.0)ACCA113-44L0%0.0
11-21American (135.0)PatN38-63L0%0.0
11-22Morehead St. (201.0)OVCN69-49L0%0.0
11-23Louisiana Tech (58.0)CUSAA76-48L0%0.0
12-3Wofford (47.0)SCA66-45L0%0.0
12-6UNC Greensboro (309.0)SCH53-55L0%0.0
12-16Samford (305.0)SCH71-81L0%0.0
12-20Tennessee Martin (177.0)OVCA77-60L0%0.0
12-27Virginia Tech (228.0)ACCA87-65L0%0.0
12-31Gardner Webb (146.0)BSthH64-81L0%0.0
1-3Liberty (347.0)BSthA58-62W100%0.0
1-8Winthrop (210.0)BSthH56-57L0%0.0
1-10Radford (154.0)BSthA95-82L0%0.0
1-14Longwood (316.0)BSthA67-71W100%0.0
1-17Charleston Southern (164.0)BSthH65-73L0%0.0
1-22Campbell (323.0)BSthH72-70W100%0.0
1-24Coastal Carolina (124.0)BSthA63-52L0%0.0
1-26High Point (89.0)BSthH54-63L0%0.0
1-31Longwood (316.0)BSthH67-71L0%0.0
2-3Campbell (323.0)BSthA66-53L0%0.0
2-6Liberty (347.0)BSthH69-61W100%0.0
2-12UNC Asheville (249.0)BSthA65-69W100%0.0
2-14Radford (154.0)BSthH56-62L0%0.0
2-18Charleston Southern (164.0)BSthA75-49L0%0.0
2-21High Point (89.0)BSthA67-58L0%0.0
2-26Coastal Carolina (124.0)BSthH80-69W100%0.0
2-28Winthrop (210.0)BSthA80-53L0%0.0
3-4Longwood (316.0)BSthN61-65L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Presbyterian's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Presbyterian's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Presbyterian.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PresbyterianBSth26.4526.4522.3922.39-14.61-14.61
LongwoodBSth6.426.4224.1424.14-3.32-3.32
WinthropBSth4.704.7051.8551.850.170.17
Charleston SouthernBSth4.634.6356.0056.000.560.56
Coastal CarolinaBSth4.624.6270.3770.371.881.88
RadfordBSth4.584.5859.2659.260.850.85
LibertyBSth4.584.5815.3815.38-3.17-3.17
CampbellBSth4.534.5322.2222.22-2.52-2.52
High PointBSth4.534.5365.3865.381.391.39
Gardner WebbBSth3.023.0251.7251.720.100.10
UNC AshevilleBSth2.952.9544.4444.44-0.33-0.33
UNC GreensboroSC2.102.1024.1424.14-1.09-1.09
WoffordSC2.032.0380.6580.651.241.24
SamfordSC2.022.0236.6736.67-0.54-0.54
Virginia TechACC1.941.9431.2531.25-0.73-0.73
Tennessee MartinOVC1.931.9355.5655.560.210.21
Morehead St.OVC1.901.9045.1645.16-0.18-0.18
Louisiana TechCUSA1.871.8774.1974.190.900.90
AmericanPat1.841.8450.0050.000.000.00
DukeACC1.841.8487.5087.501.381.38
FurmanSC0.320.3229.0329.03-0.13-0.13
Western CarolinaSC0.300.3043.3343.33-0.04-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.290.2950.0050.000.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.270.2759.3859.380.050.05
ChattanoogaSC0.230.2366.6766.670.080.08
ClemsonACC0.210.2151.6151.610.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.200.2060.6160.610.040.04
The CitadelSC0.200.2029.6329.63-0.08-0.08
VMISC0.200.2032.1432.14-0.07-0.07
Jacksonville St.OVC0.180.1834.4834.48-0.06-0.06
Miami OHMAC0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
MercerSC0.170.1751.6151.610.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.170.1740.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.160.166.906.90-0.13-0.13
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.160.1656.6756.670.020.02
Ohio St.B100.150.1569.7069.700.060.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.150.1538.4638.46-0.04-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.150.1551.5251.520.000.00
UABCUSA0.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
ColgatePat0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
MississippiSEC0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
RichmondA100.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
AuburnSEC0.120.1241.1841.18-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Austin PeayOVC0.120.1221.4321.43-0.07-0.07
Murray St.OVC0.120.1283.3383.330.080.08
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.120.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.110.1156.6756.670.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
North CarolinaACC0.110.1168.5768.570.040.04
Miami FLACC0.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
Notre DameACC0.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0927.2727.27-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.0958.6258.620.020.02
BelmontOVC0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0910.3410.34-0.07-0.07
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0935.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
DartmouthIvy0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
George WashingtonA100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
IowaB100.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
UMBCAE0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
PittsburghACC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
TempleAmer0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
ArmyPat0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
LehighPat0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
VirginiaACC0.080.0890.6290.620.070.07
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0781.2581.250.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
North FloridaASun0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
HowardMEAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
UCLAP120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
ElonCAA0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0652.9452.940.000.00
RiceCUSA0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
UTSACUSA0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
StanfordP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Loyola MDPat0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0341.9441.94-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ArizonaP120.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
IndianaB100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.9190.910.020.02
Penn St.B100.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0391.1891.180.020.02