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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Presbyterian

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:349.0
Current RPI:349
Expected SOS:343
Current SOS:343
Current Record:4-26
Expected Record:4-26
Current Conf Record:2-15
Expected Conf Record:2-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-16
Current OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC RPI:349
Expected OOC SOS:349



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
4-26349.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Presbyterian.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Georgia Tech (157.0)ACCA88-57L0%0.0
11-12The Citadel (345.0)SCA82-68L0%0.0
11-15Wake Forest (113.0)ACCA69-48L0%0.0
11-21Old Dominion (170.0)CUSAA69-51L0%0.0
11-23West Virginia (88.0)B12A88-55L0%0.0
11-26Bowling Green (194.0)MACN67-45L0%0.0
11-27Georgia Southern (303.0)SCN66-76L0%0.0
12-3UNC Greensboro (301.0)SCA66-87W100%0.0
12-7Furman (339.0)SCH59-74L0%0.0
12-16Tennessee Martin (332.0)OVCH70-73L0%0.0
12-18Appalachian St. (335.0)SCH74-69W100%0.0
12-30Samford (313.0)SCA71-59L0%0.0
1-5Marshall (276.0)CUSAA77-49L0%0.0
1-8Winthrop (168.0)BSthH67-71L0%0.0
1-11UNC Asheville (201.0)BSthA84-70L0%0.0
1-15Charleston Southern (268.0)BSthA95-58L0%0.0
1-18Gardner Webb (241.0)BSthH58-67L0%0.0
1-22Coastal Carolina (196.0)BSthH72-84L0%0.0
1-25Liberty (311.0)BSthA65-53L0%0.0
1-28High Point (172.0)BSthH74-81L0%0.0
1-31VMI (211.0)BSthA107-93L0%0.0
2-5Longwood (337.0)BSthH77-62W100%0.0
2-8Radford (240.0)BSthH66-83L0%0.0
2-12Campbell (316.0)BSthA77-66L0%0.0
2-15UNC Asheville (201.0)BSthH72-71W100%0.0
2-19Gardner Webb (241.0)BSthA79-70L0%0.0
2-22Charleston Southern (268.0)BSthH47-86L0%0.0
2-26Coastal Carolina (196.0)BSthA70-51L0%0.0
3-1Winthrop (168.0)BSthA82-60L0%0.0
3-5Radford (240.0)BSthN78-73L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Presbyterian's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Presbyterian's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Presbyterian.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PresbyterianBSth26.1926.1912.1212.12-19.84-19.84
WinthropBSth4.204.2053.5753.570.300.30
Coastal CarolinaBSth4.154.1557.1457.140.590.59
Gardner WebbBSth4.124.1246.4346.43-0.29-0.29
UNC AshevilleBSth4.114.1148.1548.15-0.15-0.15
Charleston SouthernBSth4.074.0728.0028.00-1.79-1.79
RadfordBSth4.004.0057.1457.140.570.57
VMIBSth2.462.4653.8553.850.190.19
CampbellBSth2.452.4529.6329.63-1.00-1.00
LibertyBSth2.392.3925.0025.00-1.20-1.20
High PointBSth2.392.3948.1548.15-0.09-0.09
LongwoodBSth2.362.3614.8114.81-1.66-1.66
The CitadelSC2.102.1010.7110.71-1.65-1.65
Georgia SouthernSC2.042.0436.6736.67-0.55-0.55
Appalachian St.SC2.012.0120.0020.00-1.20-1.20
FurmanSC2.012.0123.0823.08-1.08-1.08
UNC GreensboroSC1.961.9639.2939.29-0.42-0.42
SamfordSC1.941.9431.0331.03-0.73-0.73
Wake ForestACC1.781.7850.0050.000.000.00
Old DominionCUSA1.771.7746.8846.88-0.11-0.11
West VirginiaB121.751.7551.6151.610.060.06
MarshallCUSA1.741.7426.6726.67-0.81-0.81
Tennessee MartinOVC1.691.6917.8617.86-1.09-1.09
Georgia TechACC1.691.6946.8846.88-0.11-0.11
Bowling GreenMAC1.671.6733.3333.33-0.56-0.56
WoffordSC0.520.5258.6258.620.090.09
Western CarolinaSC0.500.5051.6151.610.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.380.3851.7251.720.010.01
ElonSC0.320.3255.1755.170.030.03
DavidsonSC0.320.3261.2961.290.070.07
Virginia TechACC0.280.2829.0329.03-0.12-0.12
ClemsonACC0.240.2462.5062.500.060.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.230.2323.3323.33-0.12-0.12
East CarolinaCUSA0.220.2244.8344.83-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.210.2176.4776.470.110.11
CharlotteCUSA0.190.1954.8454.840.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.170.1761.7661.760.040.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.160.1625.0025.00-0.08-0.08
DelawareCAA0.150.1573.5373.530.070.07
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.140.1483.8783.870.100.10
College of CharlestonCAA0.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
Florida St.ACC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.140.1425.8125.81-0.07-0.07
AkronMAC0.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
East Tennessee St.ASun0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
BaylorB120.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
USC UpstateASun0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
XavierBE0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.100.1071.8871.880.050.05
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Notre DameACC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0893.1093.100.070.07
UNLVMWC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.080.0859.2659.260.020.02
TCUB120.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
MissouriSEC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Western KentuckySB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
DaytonA100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
MississippiSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
VCUA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
SyracuseACC0.080.0884.3884.380.060.06
VirginiaACC0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
UABCUSA0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
TexasB120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Miami FLACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
TulaneCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
KansasB120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
PittsburghACC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
AlabamaSEC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0624.0024.00-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
DuquesneA100.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Penn St.B100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0641.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.060.063.703.70-0.05-0.05
George WashingtonA100.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
IUPUISum0.060.0610.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
MinnesotaB100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
NorthwesternB100.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0616.1316.13-0.04-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
St. John'sBE0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0564.2964.290.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
FIUCUSA0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
TulsaCUSA0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
OklahomaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
FordhamA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
RutgersAmer0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0334.6234.62-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
USCP120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01