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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Presbyterian

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:347.0
Current RPI:347
Expected SOS:280
Current SOS:280
Current Record:3-25
Expected Record:3-25
Current Conf Record:1-18
Expected Conf Record:1-18
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-13
Current OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:300
Expected OOC SOS:234



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
3-25347.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Presbyterian.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Furman (96.0)SCH73-71W100%0.0
11-14UNC Greensboro (95.0)SCA61-42L0%0.0
11-19William & Mary (110.0)CAAA89-59L0%0.0
11-22VMI (329.0)SCH77-67W100%0.0
11-25Boise St. (72.0)MWCA82-56L0%0.0
11-28The Citadel (282.0)SCA97-83L0%0.0
12-6Tennessee (82.0)SECA90-50L0%0.0
12-13USC Upstate (229.0)ASunA76-48L0%0.0
12-22East Carolina (213.0)AmerA76-56L0%0.0
12-29Liberty (172.0)BSthH61-77L0%0.0
12-31Campbell (246.0)BSthA69-58L0%0.0
1-4Longwood (343.0)BSthA79-76L0%0.0
1-7Radford (227.0)BSthH63-76L0%0.0
1-11Winthrop (70.0)BSthA75-52L0%0.0
1-14High Point (236.0)BSthA77-44L0%0.0
1-19Charleston Southern (295.0)BSthH52-73L0%0.0
1-21Gardner Webb (186.0)BSthA78-61L0%0.0
1-26UNC Asheville (73.0)BSthH47-73L0%0.0
1-28Longwood (343.0)BSthH71-62W100%0.0
1-31Liberty (172.0)BSthA71-51L0%0.0
2-4Charleston Southern (295.0)BSthA71-65L0%0.0
2-9High Point (236.0)BSthH58-68L0%0.0
2-11Campbell (246.0)BSthH57-70L0%0.0
2-15UNC Asheville (73.0)BSthA89-48L0%0.0
2-18Gardner Webb (186.0)BSthH56-84L0%0.0
2-23Radford (227.0)BSthA59-57L0%0.0
2-25Winthrop (70.0)BSthH56-93L0%0.0
2-28Campbell (246.0)BSthA81-62L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Presbyterian's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Presbyterian's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Presbyterian.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PresbyterianBSth26.5126.517.767.76-22.40-22.40
CampbellBSth6.616.6139.2939.29-1.42-1.42
WinthropBSth4.854.8578.5778.572.772.77
Gardner WebbBSth4.794.7950.0050.000.000.00
RadfordBSth4.794.7935.7135.71-1.37-1.37
Charleston SouthernBSth4.794.7926.9226.92-2.21-2.21
UNC AshevilleBSth4.784.7867.8667.861.711.71
LibertyBSth4.754.7551.8551.850.180.18
High PointBSth4.694.6938.4638.46-1.08-1.08
LongwoodBSth4.664.6611.5411.54-3.59-3.59
VMISC2.232.2314.8114.81-1.57-1.57
FurmanSC2.212.2165.5265.520.680.68
UNC GreensboroSC2.182.1870.0070.000.870.87
The CitadelSC2.112.1127.5927.59-0.95-0.95
USC UpstateASun2.032.0344.4444.44-0.23-0.23
William & MaryCAA1.851.8550.0050.000.000.00
Boise St.MWC1.791.7960.7160.710.380.38
East CarolinaAmer1.791.7943.7543.75-0.22-0.22
TennesseeSEC1.791.7946.6746.67-0.12-0.12
Western CarolinaSC0.390.3923.3323.33-0.21-0.21
SamfordSC0.390.3953.1253.120.020.02
MercerSC0.330.3343.3343.33-0.04-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.300.3078.1278.120.170.17
GeorgiaSEC0.270.2756.2556.250.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.270.2758.6258.620.050.05
WoffordSC0.270.2743.3343.33-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.270.2727.5927.59-0.12-0.12
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.270.2784.3884.380.180.18
ElonCAA0.210.2153.3353.330.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.190.1968.7568.750.070.07
College of CharlestonCAA0.180.1872.7372.730.080.08
HamptonMEAC0.180.1842.8642.86-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.170.1788.2488.240.130.13
Morgan St.MEAC0.150.1544.8344.83-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.130.1336.0036.00-0.04-0.04
DrexelCAA0.130.1325.8125.81-0.06-0.06
James MadisonCAA0.130.1328.1228.12-0.05-0.05
AlabamaSEC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
NavyPat0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1255.8855.880.010.01
VCUA100.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
Georgia SouthernSB0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
HoustonAmer0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
DaytonA100.090.0976.6776.670.050.05
West VirginiaB120.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Air ForceMWC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Kansas St.B120.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
Wake ForestACC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
TempleAmer0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
ClemsonACC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
CreightonBE0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
DartmouthIvy0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
George MasonA100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.060.0619.3519.35-0.04-0.04
NJITASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Texas TechB120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
DelawareCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
HofstraCAA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
NevadaMWC0.060.0682.3582.350.040.04
New MexicoMWC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.060.0678.5778.570.040.04
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
AuburnSEC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
AkronMAC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
KansasB120.060.0687.5087.500.040.04
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Ohio St.B100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
PittsburghACC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
MississippiSEC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.063.333.33-0.05-0.05
VirginiaACC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
RichmondA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.030.0377.1477.140.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UMBCAE0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0396.9796.970.030.03
LSUSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01