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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Presbyterian

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:322.6
Current RPI:330
Expected SOS:305
Current SOS:339
Current Record:2-4
Expected Record:7-20
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-10
Current OOC Record:2-4
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:317
Expected OOC SOS:321



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-12191.00.01%
14-13206.10.08%
13-14233.40.31%
12-15252.31.04%
11-16273.22.74%
10-17291.76.89%
9-18306.913.13%
8-19319.419.33%
7-20328.920.93%
6-21336.018.22%
5-22341.311.47%
4-23344.74.68%
3-24347.10.97%
2-25348.70.19%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Presbyterian.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Furman (147.4)SCH73-71W100%0.0
11-14UNC Greensboro (171.8)SCA61-42L0%0.0
11-19William & Mary (168.5)CAAA89-59L0%0.0
11-22VMI (322.5)SCH77-67W100%0.0
11-25Boise St. (113.1)MWCA82-56L0%0.0
11-28The Citadel (299.9)SCA97-83L0%0.0
12-6Tennessee (130.0)SECA0-03%-22.7
12-13USC Upstate (263.9)ASunA0-023%-8.8
12-22East Carolina (174.1)AmerA0-06%-18.2
12-29Liberty (211.7)BSthH0-031%-6.1
12-31Campbell (295.2)BSthA0-029%-6.6
1-4Longwood (332.7)BSthA0-041%-2.6
1-7Radford (263.5)BSthH0-046%-1.1
1-11Winthrop (111.3)BSthA0-05%-19.4
1-14High Point (239.4)BSthA0-019%-10.7
1-19Charleston Southern (265.9)BSthH0-041%-2.6
1-21Gardner Webb (192.4)BSthA0-012%-14.1
1-26UNC Asheville (97.3)BSthH0-016%-12.1
1-28Longwood (332.7)BSthH0-062%3.7
1-31Liberty (211.7)BSthA0-015%-12.4
2-4Charleston Southern (265.9)BSthA0-023%-8.9
2-9High Point (239.4)BSthH0-036%-4.4
2-11Campbell (295.2)BSthH0-049%-0.3
2-15UNC Asheville (97.3)BSthA0-06%-18.4
2-18Gardner Webb (192.4)BSthH0-026%-7.8
2-23Radford (263.5)BSthA0-027%-7.4
2-25Winthrop (111.3)BSthH0-014%-13.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Presbyterian's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Presbyterian's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Presbyterian.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PresbyterianBSth28.7926.5033.3326.94-9.60-12.22
UNC AshevilleBSth0.694.8957.1465.650.101.53
LibertyBSth1.294.8833.3345.83-0.43-0.41
CampbellBSth1.224.8842.8637.46-0.17-1.22
Gardner WebbBSth0.694.8533.3349.88-0.23-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.004.8420.0035.13-0.00-1.44
RadfordBSth0.694.8228.5732.03-0.30-1.73
High PointBSth0.604.8242.8644.46-0.09-0.53
WinthropBSth0.694.8150.0069.520.001.88
LongwoodBSth0.004.7820.0019.68-0.00-2.90
VMISC8.332.320.0017.42-8.33-1.51
FurmanSC8.332.3240.0058.25-1.670.38
UNC GreensboroSC8.332.2566.6754.642.780.21
The CitadelSC8.332.1542.8627.77-1.19-0.96
USC UpstateASun0.522.0944.4439.93-0.06-0.42
William & MaryCAA8.331.9220.0043.94-5.00-0.23
Boise St.MWC8.331.8533.3354.47-2.780.17
East CarolinaAmer0.001.8577.7848.450.00-0.06
TennesseeSEC0.001.8540.0039.20-0.00-0.40
Western CarolinaSC0.000.3928.5723.12-0.00-0.21
MercerSC0.000.3642.8647.76-0.00-0.02
SamfordSC0.000.3362.5056.520.000.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.3083.3377.100.000.16
ChattanoogaSC0.000.3071.4373.040.000.14
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.3083.3379.850.000.18
StetsonASun0.520.2728.5728.24-0.22-0.12
WoffordSC0.000.260.0034.81-0.00-0.08
GeorgiaSEC0.690.2657.1452.030.100.01
Virginia TechACC0.690.2085.7162.990.500.05
HamptonMEAC0.690.2014.2942.67-0.50-0.03
ElonCAA0.000.2071.4359.470.000.04
College of CharlestonCAA1.120.2066.6761.550.370.05
SMUAmer0.600.1666.6766.860.200.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.1440.0054.54-0.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.1487.5065.250.000.04
James MadisonCAA0.000.1412.5030.68-0.00-0.05
AlabamaSEC0.000.1457.1451.790.000.00
ColgatePat0.520.1412.5029.71-0.39-0.06
DrexelCAA0.000.1350.0040.600.00-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1342.8643.60-0.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1314.2938.26-0.00-0.03
NavyPat1.290.1325.0037.38-0.64-0.03
VCUA100.000.1375.0073.060.000.06
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1350.0046.240.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.1385.7178.280.000.07
DaytonA100.000.1071.4373.490.000.05
West VirginiaB120.000.1085.7183.660.000.07
LipscombASun0.000.1012.5033.04-0.00-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.600.1057.1458.940.090.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.1075.0054.490.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.1087.5059.310.000.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.1087.5081.960.000.06
Air ForceMWC0.000.0957.1448.500.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.600.0975.0048.030.30-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0742.8647.11-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.000.07100.0076.630.000.04
DartmouthIvy0.000.070.0020.55-0.00-0.04
DelawareCAA0.000.0750.0041.990.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0757.1471.940.000.03
George MasonA100.000.0762.5046.900.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0762.5043.220.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0762.5050.710.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0757.1459.280.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0725.0030.23-0.00-0.03
MaineAE0.000.0714.2924.15-0.00-0.04
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0725.0034.40-0.00-0.02
New HampshireAE0.000.0757.1458.840.000.01
NJITASun0.000.0750.0049.780.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0712.5034.79-0.00-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0750.0044.400.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0771.4354.310.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0728.5723.78-0.00-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0733.3339.94-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0725.0055.33-0.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0787.5062.040.000.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0742.8653.19-0.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0755.5647.890.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0771.4368.980.000.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0771.4354.860.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0750.0056.740.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0716.6744.34-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0787.5074.490.000.03
LamarSlnd0.000.0750.0041.540.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.070.0025.23-0.00-0.03
NebraskaB100.000.0757.1444.890.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0775.0049.180.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0725.0063.27-0.000.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0722.2238.49-0.00-0.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0785.7157.450.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0671.4351.460.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0625.0038.83-0.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0671.4360.540.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0666.6740.030.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0687.5075.860.000.03
NevadaMWC0.000.0677.7871.970.000.03
New MexicoMWC0.000.0662.5058.450.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0687.5068.610.000.02
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0650.0041.490.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0637.5052.01-0.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0642.8650.06-0.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.0666.6754.050.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.600.060.0020.75-0.60-0.04
VirginiaACC0.600.0687.5078.510.450.04
OregonP120.600.0675.0072.250.300.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0625.0027.53-0.00-0.03
KentuckySEC0.000.0687.5082.800.000.04
MississippiSEC0.000.0675.0048.500.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.06100.0078.850.000.04
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0633.3339.61-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0657.1433.230.00-0.02
TempleAmer0.000.0675.0064.920.000.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0612.5023.93-0.00-0.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0650.0038.050.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0685.7176.240.000.03
Central MichiganMAC0.690.0371.4356.250.300.00
DukeACC0.690.0388.8978.400.540.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0350.0046.410.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.690.0387.5075.590.520.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0371.4368.050.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0362.5069.130.000.01
RichmondA100.690.0350.0048.210.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0018.64-0.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0362.5052.330.000.00
Arizona St.P120.520.0362.5040.460.13-0.01
Iowa St.B120.520.0371.4368.070.220.01
UMBCAE0.000.0380.0054.540.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0328.5742.90-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.600.0342.8644.71-0.09-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0312.5029.15-0.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3346.38-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.000.0375.0066.460.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0350.0054.070.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0360.0069.120.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.12-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.690.0350.0059.920.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0362.5043.800.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.600.0316.6736.03-0.40-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0316.6729.80-0.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0385.7166.190.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0387.5075.240.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0357.1436.010.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0091.920.000.03
LSUSEC0.000.0371.4349.170.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0357.1442.530.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.180.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.0377.7876.040.000.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0387.5082.360.000.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0022.58-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0325.0031.41-0.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0375.0055.500.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0357.1471.520.000.01