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Through games of Feb 12, 2016.


Presbyterian

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:335.9
Current RPI:338
Expected SOS:319
Current SOS:317
Current Record:5-16
Expected Record:7-19
Current Conf Record:3-10
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-8
Current OOC Record:2-6
Expected OOC Record:2-6
Expected OOC RPI:337
Expected OOC SOS:312



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-16298.70.27%
9-17310.73.10%
8-18324.114.89%
7-19334.834.39%
6-20341.234.95%
5-21345.112.39%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Presbyterian.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Furman (157.2)SCA63-53L0%0.0
11-16USC Upstate (327.3)ASunH74-73W100%0.0
11-21The Citadel (307.1)SCH95-79W100%0.0
11-24VMI (329.9)SCA76-61L0%0.0
11-28Wofford (179.1)SCH58-68L0%0.0
12-2Gardner Webb (221.4)BSthH76-87L0%0.0
12-5Winthrop (161.5)BSthA74-70L0%0.0
12-15Clemson (108.7)ACCA69-41L0%0.0
12-22Richmond (104.8)A10A74-44L0%0.0
12-27Marquette (117.6)BEA84-66L0%0.0
1-2Campbell (323.3)BSthA63-70W100%0.0
1-6Longwood (320.4)BSthH78-65W100%0.0
1-9High Point (189.0)BSthA82-66L0%0.0
1-14Coastal Carolina (168.1)BSthA87-58L0%0.0
1-16Radford (159.3)BSthH69-68W100%0.0
1-20Charleston Southern (274.0)BSthH72-73L0%0.0
1-23UNC Asheville (150.3)BSthA67-55L0%0.0
1-30Liberty (264.2)BSthH61-65L0%0.0
2-3Coastal Carolina (168.1)BSthH66-69L0%0.0
2-6Gardner Webb (221.4)BSthA69-66L0%0.0
2-11Charleston Southern (274.0)BSthA77-63L0%0.0
2-13Campbell (323.3)BSthH0-060%2.6
2-18UNC Asheville (150.3)BSthH0-021%-8.8
2-20Liberty (264.2)BSthA0-027%-6.5
2-25Longwood (320.4)BSthA0-033%-4.8
2-27High Point (189.0)BSthH0-022%-8.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Presbyterian's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Presbyterian's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Presbyterian.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PresbyterianBSth26.4326.4921.8423.41-14.89-14.09
Gardner WebbBSth5.624.9638.1040.82-1.34-0.91
CampbellBSth3.454.9233.3333.06-1.15-1.67
UNC AshevilleBSth3.344.8960.8761.440.731.12
Charleston SouthernBSth5.514.8920.0021.79-3.31-2.76
LibertyBSth3.304.8931.8232.72-1.20-1.69
LongwoodBSth3.244.8822.7323.91-1.77-2.55
Coastal CarolinaBSth5.564.8852.6353.990.290.39
High PointBSth3.294.8555.0057.440.330.72
WinthropBSth3.293.1165.0062.340.990.77
RadfordBSth3.293.0854.5556.090.300.37
FurmanSC2.852.3454.1752.800.240.13
VMISC2.782.2715.0016.32-1.95-1.53
WoffordSC2.762.2443.4846.27-0.36-0.17
The CitadelSC2.692.2431.8230.58-0.98-0.87
USC UpstateASun2.542.0322.7323.28-1.38-1.08
ClemsonACC2.481.9956.5256.980.320.28
RichmondA102.431.9954.5554.300.220.17
MarquetteBE2.381.9262.5056.490.600.25
East Tennessee St.SC0.420.4260.8760.240.090.09
Western CarolinaSC0.370.4231.8234.54-0.13-0.13
UNC GreensboroSC0.370.3526.0928.41-0.18-0.15
MercerSC0.310.2866.6767.110.100.10
SamfordSC0.350.2840.0041.68-0.07-0.05
ChattanoogaSC0.350.2783.3383.710.230.18
College of CharlestonCAA0.220.1960.8758.910.050.03
StetsonASun0.200.1722.7327.37-0.11-0.08
VCUA100.160.1770.8371.030.060.07
GeorgetownBE0.150.1756.0052.860.020.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.110.1519.0525.89-0.07-0.07
GeorgiaSEC0.160.1459.0955.160.030.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.1450.0048.970.00-0.00
NavyPat0.210.1464.0064.470.060.04
DrexelCAA0.110.1413.0416.41-0.08-0.10
William & MaryCAA0.110.1468.1867.120.040.05
CharlotteCUSA0.150.1437.5042.32-0.04-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.210.1441.6739.90-0.04-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.150.1450.0048.120.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.210.1466.6763.330.070.04
George WashingtonA100.160.1475.0071.980.080.06
ButlerBE0.160.1370.8368.990.070.05
George MasonA100.100.1333.3333.62-0.03-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.170.1128.5733.29-0.07-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.110.1177.2773.930.060.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.160.1142.8641.32-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.110.1160.8755.310.020.01
Virginia TechACC0.160.1052.0048.910.01-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.150.1058.3359.970.030.02
Texas A&MSEC0.100.1075.0075.350.050.05
IowaB100.150.1079.1778.890.090.06
LSUSEC0.150.1062.5059.070.040.02
Appalachian St.SB0.100.1025.0028.14-0.05-0.04
ColumbiaIvy0.100.1068.1865.570.040.03
Notre DameACC0.100.1070.8367.910.040.04
MaineAE0.100.1032.0031.17-0.04-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.050.1054.1751.980.000.00
AuburnSEC0.110.0839.1335.44-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.110.0885.0083.450.080.05
NevadaMWC0.110.0857.1455.350.020.01
AkronMAC0.110.0782.6181.130.070.05
ArkansasSEC0.110.0750.0052.940.000.00
RiderMAAC0.110.0738.4641.36-0.02-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0738.1037.68-0.01-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0716.6719.49-0.04-0.05
StanfordP120.110.0747.6244.07-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.110.0773.9176.700.050.04
Wright St.Horz0.110.0754.1753.810.010.01
Penn St.B100.110.0750.0046.760.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.100.0754.1754.290.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.0750.0052.880.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0747.8348.57-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.0725.0026.38-0.05-0.03
LipscombASun0.100.0728.0030.50-0.05-0.03
NJITASun0.050.0756.0055.640.010.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0762.5064.110.010.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.0714.2924.87-0.07-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.110.0760.8755.980.020.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0760.8757.170.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0730.0031.18-0.02-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0750.0049.320.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.050.0750.0050.080.000.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0730.0029.17-0.02-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0745.8343.78-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0768.1867.730.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0745.8342.30-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0773.6875.880.020.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0752.1754.140.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0740.0043.49-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0736.0034.84-0.01-0.02
UMBCAE0.050.0723.0825.89-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0731.8232.68-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.0731.8236.13-0.04-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.100.0772.0071.330.050.03
DaytonA100.050.0787.5083.730.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.100.0783.3378.390.070.04
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0629.1726.68-0.00-0.03
DavidsonA100.050.0661.9058.180.010.01
FordhamA100.050.0652.3850.690.000.00
MassachusettsA100.100.0643.4842.42-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0683.3378.460.030.04
CreightonBE0.000.0664.0062.070.000.01
DePaulBE0.050.0633.3334.02-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.100.0672.0069.130.040.02
Seton HallBE0.100.0670.8368.090.040.02
St. John'sBE0.100.0625.0023.43-0.05-0.03
VillanovaBE0.050.0687.5086.850.040.05
XavierBE0.100.0687.5081.840.070.04
Ohio St.B100.060.0460.0055.570.010.00
HamptonMEAC0.060.0459.0961.290.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0424.0024.16-0.03-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0454.5552.530.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0441.6739.50-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0429.1733.08-0.02-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0483.3379.820.030.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0428.5732.73-0.02-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0343.4837.80-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0336.3638.95-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.039.0917.13-0.04-0.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0365.3864.920.020.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0340.0042.85-0.01-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0370.8370.130.020.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0338.1039.12-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0329.1733.75-0.02-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0333.3330.27-0.02-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0342.3146.12-0.01-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0376.1972.410.020.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0366.6764.780.020.01
DukeACC0.050.0375.0071.810.020.01
DuquesneA100.000.0360.8756.270.000.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0366.6766.320.020.01
La SalleA100.050.0319.0520.30-0.03-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0379.1776.000.030.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0382.6177.600.030.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0325.0027.25-0.02-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0325.0033.24-0.02-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0356.0055.450.010.00
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0358.3363.160.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0372.7367.600.020.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0356.0055.750.010.00
RutgersB100.050.0321.7420.33-0.03-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0383.3381.270.030.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0334.7832.39-0.02-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0386.9680.430.040.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0372.7370.390.020.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0368.0064.070.020.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0345.4554.18-0.000.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0313.0412.96-0.04-0.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0379.1778.100.030.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0356.0053.630.010.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0368.0066.640.020.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.034.357.71-0.04-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0315.0018.12-0.03-0.02
IUPUISum0.050.0338.4638.50-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0350.0054.220.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0323.8122.85-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.050.0362.5056.990.010.00