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Through games of Jan 26, 2015.


Presbyterian

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:323.7
Current RPI:316
Expected SOS:234
Current SOS:233
Current Record:3-15
Expected Record:5-22
Current Conf Record:3-6
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-9
Current OOC Record:0-9
Expected OOC Record:0-9
Expected OOC RPI:336
Expected OOC SOS:150



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-18274.30.07%
8-19292.30.60%
7-20304.74.68%
6-21315.016.61%
5-22322.733.77%
4-23328.832.93%
3-24334.011.33%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Presbyterian.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Duke (6.8)ACCA113-44L0%0.0
11-21American (128.6)PatN38-63L0%0.0
11-22Morehead St. (219.0)OVCN69-49L0%0.0
11-23Louisiana Tech (81.0)CUSAA76-48L0%0.0
12-3Wofford (59.5)SCA66-45L0%0.0
12-6UNC Greensboro (324.6)SCH53-55L0%0.0
12-16Samford (312.8)SCH71-81L0%0.0
12-20Tennessee Martin (168.1)OVCA77-60L0%0.0
12-27Virginia Tech (216.3)ACCA87-65L0%0.0
12-31Gardner Webb (163.3)BSthH64-81L0%0.0
1-3Liberty (344.8)BSthA58-62W100%0.0
1-8Winthrop (247.3)BSthH56-57L0%0.0
1-10Radford (158.7)BSthA95-82L0%0.0
1-14Longwood (321.8)BSthA67-71W100%0.0
1-17Charleston Southern (175.6)BSthH65-73L0%0.0
1-22Campbell (284.6)BSthH72-70W100%0.0
1-24Coastal Carolina (141.0)BSthA63-52L0%0.0
1-26High Point (95.8)BSthH54-63L0%0.0
1-31Longwood (321.8)BSthH0-044%-1.6
2-3Campbell (284.6)BSthA0-013%-12.4
2-6Liberty (344.8)BSthH0-053%1.0
2-12UNC Asheville (232.1)BSthA0-08%-15.3
2-14Radford (158.7)BSthH0-018%-10.1
2-18Charleston Southern (175.6)BSthA0-08%-15.3
2-21High Point (95.8)BSthA0-05%-17.8
2-26Coastal Carolina (141.0)BSthH0-013%-12.3
2-28Winthrop (247.3)BSthA0-09%-14.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Presbyterian's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Presbyterian's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Presbyterian.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PresbyterianBSth26.3726.4418.8918.48-16.41-16.67
LongwoodBSth3.514.7422.2225.95-1.95-2.28
CampbellBSth3.414.7427.7832.82-1.52-1.63
LibertyBSth3.334.7212.5017.08-2.50-3.11
Charleston SouthernBSth3.324.7153.3352.090.220.20
High PointBSth3.424.6970.5966.771.411.57
RadfordBSth3.324.6958.8259.260.590.87
Coastal CarolinaBSth3.254.6566.6767.231.081.60
WinthropBSth3.244.6540.0044.13-0.65-0.55
Gardner WebbBSth3.343.0147.0650.10-0.200.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.652.9437.5044.04-0.16-0.35
UNC GreensboroSC2.992.1111.7619.22-2.29-1.30
WoffordSC3.062.0872.2273.051.360.96
SamfordSC3.152.0833.3333.92-1.05-0.67
Virginia TechACC2.942.0238.8933.24-0.65-0.68
Morehead St.OVC3.001.9531.5841.91-1.11-0.32
Tennessee MartinOVC2.921.9556.2556.260.370.24
Louisiana TechCUSA2.981.9572.2271.711.320.84
AmericanPat2.921.9152.6355.210.150.20
DukeACC2.851.9188.8983.212.221.27
East Tennessee St.SC0.370.3358.8259.040.070.06
FurmanSC0.450.3223.5328.57-0.24-0.14
Western CarolinaSC0.300.3036.8441.50-0.08-0.05
ChattanoogaSC0.300.2663.1662.110.080.06
James MadisonCAA0.300.2657.1458.270.040.04
ClemsonACC0.240.2357.8948.680.04-0.01
The CitadelSC0.290.2229.4131.63-0.12-0.08
VMISC0.290.2231.5837.64-0.11-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.240.2035.0031.74-0.07-0.07
North Carolina St.ACC0.310.1961.9060.140.070.04
MercerSC0.140.1947.3751.56-0.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.240.170.003.50-0.24-0.16
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.230.1755.5654.970.030.02
Ohio St.B100.220.1676.1976.820.120.09
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.140.1635.2935.00-0.04-0.05
Miami OHMAC0.230.1633.3330.07-0.08-0.06
Florida St.ACC0.160.1650.0044.160.00-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.140.1645.0040.37-0.01-0.03
SyracuseACC0.150.1566.6758.550.050.03
AuburnSEC0.170.1450.0040.050.00-0.03
MississippiSEC0.170.1463.1663.590.050.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.170.1416.6725.22-0.12-0.07
South Carolina St.MEAC0.170.1428.5732.31-0.07-0.05
RichmondA100.150.1352.6355.850.010.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.1327.7828.20-0.03-0.06
UABCUSA0.140.1347.3749.78-0.01-0.00
ColgatePat0.140.1340.0046.29-0.03-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.150.1280.9576.270.090.06
Louisiana MonroeSB0.150.1050.0051.400.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.1057.8956.170.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.070.1078.9580.780.040.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.150.1038.8940.47-0.03-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.150.1058.8262.350.030.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.150.1020.0027.23-0.09-0.04
BelmontOVC0.080.1063.1663.090.020.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.1052.9459.020.000.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.105.2610.55-0.00-0.08
Tennessee TechOVC0.150.1042.1145.63-0.02-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.150.1028.5733.12-0.06-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.150.1053.3353.310.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.150.1035.0034.43-0.05-0.03
ArmyPat0.140.0966.6762.800.050.02
TempleAmer0.220.0965.0062.240.060.02
PittsburghACC0.140.0963.1654.100.040.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0973.6870.410.030.04
Notre DameACC0.070.0990.4884.080.060.06
VirginiaACC0.070.09100.0093.900.070.08
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0789.4783.120.070.05
MarylandB100.090.0785.7177.400.060.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0722.2240.58-0.05-0.01
UCLAP120.090.0755.0052.110.010.00
Wright St.Horz0.090.0747.3748.02-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0735.2931.66-0.02-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0728.5736.64-0.03-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0726.3236.40-0.04-0.02
DelawareCAA0.080.0721.0522.39-0.05-0.04
HawaiiBW0.080.0763.1657.370.020.01
North FloridaASun0.080.0752.6360.370.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.080.0743.7542.93-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0755.0060.970.010.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0742.1151.57-0.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.150.0738.8943.44-0.03-0.01
CornellIvy0.080.0747.0648.23-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.080.0773.6868.210.040.02
HowardMEAC0.080.0741.1844.41-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0715.0023.69-0.05-0.03
SienaMAAC0.080.0742.1138.13-0.01-0.02
TCUB120.080.0773.6861.650.040.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0752.9447.070.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.150.0654.5556.830.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.140.0621.0521.30-0.08-0.04
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0678.9579.390.040.04
PurdueB100.140.0660.0056.760.030.01
Ball St.MAC0.070.0637.5037.43-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.070.0650.0050.930.000.00
DavidsonA100.070.0676.4776.600.040.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0644.4449.88-0.01-0.00
George WashingtonA100.070.0680.0071.460.040.03
IowaB100.070.0665.0063.260.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0640.0045.20-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.070.0615.0020.03-0.05-0.04
ElonCAA0.150.0647.3744.10-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0616.6723.18-0.05-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.150.0630.0029.56-0.06-0.03
StanfordP120.150.0673.6869.450.070.02
West VirginiaB120.150.0684.2175.010.100.03
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0638.8942.63-0.02-0.01
BucknellPat0.070.0650.0050.910.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.070.0641.1842.92-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.070.0655.5657.060.010.01
LehighPat0.070.0650.0052.030.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.070.0636.8433.26-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0657.8956.150.010.01
NavyPat0.000.0631.5832.87-0.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0625.0022.84-0.04-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.070.0663.1668.410.020.02
UTSACUSA0.070.0643.7543.13-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0650.0042.950.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0647.3742.90-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.150.0684.2177.800.100.03
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0452.9453.080.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0344.4443.27-0.01-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0321.0530.50-0.05-0.01
ButlerBE0.080.0371.4370.490.040.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0315.7918.55-0.06-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0357.8959.490.010.01
MarquetteBE0.080.0352.6346.710.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.080.0363.1651.390.020.00
ArizonaP120.080.0390.0087.170.060.02
IndianaB100.080.0375.0068.440.040.01
LSUSEC0.080.0378.9569.080.040.01
Seton HallBE0.080.0368.4260.870.030.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0373.6872.910.030.01
Green BayHorz0.070.0378.9577.920.040.02
IonaMAAC0.070.0371.4374.820.030.02
OaklandHorz0.070.0336.8442.19-0.02-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0370.5975.570.030.02
South DakotaSum0.070.0345.0047.77-0.01-0.00
UNLVMWC0.070.0352.6354.300.000.00
BrownIvy0.070.0341.1837.94-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0325.0028.11-0.03-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0353.3356.270.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0343.7540.86-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0342.8642.72-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.070.0340.0038.76-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.070.0361.9060.530.020.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0325.0037.78-0.04-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0325.0025.64-0.03-0.02
La SalleA100.070.0352.6352.940.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0347.0654.50-0.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0347.3749.70-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0314.2917.07-0.05-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.070.0335.2933.20-0.02-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0340.0048.18-0.01-0.00
RiceCUSA0.070.0326.6730.25-0.03-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.070.0331.5844.76-0.03-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0350.0055.540.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.070.0360.0065.760.010.01
UMKCWAC0.060.0331.5838.36-0.02-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0370.5967.540.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0325.0031.37-0.04-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0344.4441.02-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0361.1160.470.020.01
Michigan St.B100.070.0365.0063.970.020.01
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0390.0084.520.060.02
Penn St.B100.070.0365.0051.820.020.00
St. John'sBE0.070.0366.6760.500.020.01
ToledoMAC0.070.0357.8959.340.010.01
WisconsinB100.070.0390.0087.160.060.02