Presbyterian

Conference:	BSth
Expected RPI:	253.5
Current RPI:	246
Expected SOS:	280
Current SOS:	226
Current Record:	9-13
Expected Record:	12-16
Current Conf Record:	4-9
Expected Conf Record:	7-11
Probability of Auto Bid:	1.08%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-7
Current OOC Record:	5-4
Expected OOC Record:	5-5
Expected OOC RPI:	143
Expected OOC SOS:	197

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
15-13	210.1	1.97%
14-14	225.9	11.20%
13-15	241.8	27.99%
12-16	258.2	33.10%
11-17	272.4	19.44%
10-18	284.4	5.54%
9-19	293.5	0.75%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Presbyterian.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-12	Duke (4.2)	ACC	A	96-55	L	0%	0.0
11-14	Eastern Kentucky (207.4)	OVC	H	78-50	W	100%	0.0
11-17	Western Carolina (259.9)	SC	H	73-80	L	0%	0.0
11-19	Cincinnati (89.8)	BE	A	54-56	W	100%	0.0
11-21	Davidson (64.0)	SC	A	68-54	L	0%	0.0
12-1	Winthrop (269.0)	BSth	H	56-59	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Radford (335.2)	BSth	H	72-64	W	100%	0.0
12-13	South Carolina (172.1)	SEC	A	66-58	L	0%	0.0
12-20	Furman (230.9)	SC	H	75-71	W	100%	0.0
12-22	Navy (318.8)	Pat	H	58-42	W	100%	0.0
12-28	Army (293.1)	Pat	H	71-64	W	100%	0.0
12-31	Virginia Military Inst (264.1)	BSth	A	78-70	L	0%	0.0
1-2	Liberty (309.6)	BSth	A	56-63	W	100%	0.0
1-5	High Point (283.4)	BSth	H	57-63	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Campbell (174.5)	BSth	H	65-77	L	0%	0.0
1-12	Charleston Southern (151.0)	BSth	A	65-58	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Coastal Carolina (116.0)	BSth	A	81-63	L	0%	0.0
1-21	NC Asheville (115.4)	BSth	H	58-66	L	0%	0.0
1-26	Coastal Carolina (116.0)	BSth	H	49-52	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Charleston Southern (151.0)	BSth	H	64-75	L	0%	0.0
2-2	High Point (283.4)	BSth	A	62-65	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Campbell (174.5)	BSth	A	67-69	W	100%	0.0
2-9	Virginia Military Inst (264.1)	BSth	H	0-0		69%	5.4
2-11	Liberty (309.6)	BSth	H	0-0		77%	8.0
2-14	Winthrop (269.0)	BSth	A	0-0		40%	-2.7
2-18	Jacksonville St. (252.5)	OVC	A	0-0		37%	-3.6
2-23	Radford (335.2)	BSth	A	0-0		63%	3.6
2-25	Gardner Webb (270.8)	BSth	A	0-0		37%	-3.8

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Presbyterian's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Presbyterian's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Presbyterian.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Presbyterian	BSth	26.59	26.42	39.09	43.53	-5.80	-3.42
Liberty	BSth	3.11	4.55	28.57	28.41	-1.33	-1.97
Radford	BSth	3.12	4.52	9.09	12.70	-2.56	-3.37
Charleston Southern	BSth	5.34	4.51	50.00	57.02	0.00	0.63
Winthrop	BSth	3.10	4.51	31.82	31.12	-1.13	-1.70
Campbell	BSth	5.31	4.50	56.52	56.05	0.69	0.54
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	3.06	4.48	42.11	42.37	-0.48	-0.68
High Point	BSth	5.24	4.48	30.00	31.37	-2.09	-1.67
Coastal Carolina	BSth	5.18	4.48	68.75	69.54	1.94	1.75
NC Asheville	BSth	3.27	2.86	66.67	66.39	1.09	0.94
Gardner Webb	BSth	1.06	2.84	34.78	37.89	-0.32	-0.69
Western Carolina	SC	2.48	1.95	31.82	35.00	-0.90	-0.58
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	2.37	1.95	52.17	53.58	0.10	0.14
Davidson	SC	2.48	1.91	75.00	75.90	1.24	0.99
Furman	SC	2.43	1.91	50.00	50.70	0.00	0.03
Cincinnati	BE	2.32	1.88	72.73	67.66	1.06	0.66
Army	Pat	2.33	1.85	42.86	43.26	-0.33	-0.25
Navy	Pat	2.32	1.85	10.00	13.69	-1.86	-1.34
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.10	1.85	34.78	37.51	-0.03	-0.46
Duke	ACC	2.33	1.82	85.71	82.53	1.66	1.18
South Carolina	SEC	2.32	1.82	38.10	37.48	-0.55	-0.45
The Citadel	SC	0.61	0.47	9.52	11.44	-0.50	-0.36
Wofford	SC	0.36	0.36	59.09	57.93	0.07	0.06
College of Charleston	SC	0.45	0.33	58.33	59.98	0.08	0.07
Appalachian St.	SC	0.25	0.28	35.00	39.29	-0.07	-0.06
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.15	0.26	60.87	59.76	0.03	0.05
Clemson	ACC	0.33	0.26	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.15	0.23	12.50	13.44	-0.11	-0.17
Lehigh	Pat	0.20	0.22	73.91	74.91	0.10	0.11
Georgia Southern	SC	0.20	0.19	40.00	41.30	-0.04	-0.03
Elon	SC	0.21	0.19	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.21	0.19	27.27	35.02	-0.09	-0.06
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.25	0.19	39.13	36.10	-0.05	-0.05
Georgia	SEC	0.15	0.19	45.45	41.20	-0.01	-0.03
Longwood	ind	0.21	0.16	30.00	27.84	-0.08	-0.07
East Carolina	CUSA	0.22	0.16	44.44	41.71	-0.02	-0.03
Samford	SC	0.10	0.16	33.33	35.26	-0.03	-0.05
NC Greensboro	SC	0.26	0.16	34.78	33.46	-0.08	-0.05
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.15	0.16	56.52	53.10	0.02	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.15	0.15	47.83	43.66	-0.01	-0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.19	0.15	70.83	64.42	0.08	0.04
Stetson	ASun	0.23	0.14	31.82	31.31	-0.08	-0.05
American	Pat	0.11	0.13	65.22	63.79	0.03	0.04
Bucknell	Pat	0.16	0.13	73.91	75.00	0.08	0.06
Colgate	Pat	0.11	0.13	30.43	29.50	-0.04	-0.05
Hampton	MEAC	0.15	0.13	36.36	38.48	-0.04	-0.03
Holy Cross	Pat	0.11	0.13	40.91	42.05	-0.02	-0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.16	0.13	43.48	42.95	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.16	0.13	86.96	85.46	0.12	0.09
Marshall	CUSA	0.15	0.13	59.09	59.72	0.03	0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.10	0.13	54.55	56.09	0.01	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.17	0.13	72.73	71.71	0.08	0.05
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.13	45.45	46.99	-0.00	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.13	26.32	29.71	-0.02	-0.05
Tennessee	SEC	0.10	0.12	45.45	44.66	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.12	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.06
Kentucky	SEC	0.15	0.12	95.83	92.57	0.14	0.10
North Carolina	ACC	0.10	0.12	86.96	83.16	0.08	0.08
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.12	55.00	54.48	0.00	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.10	0.12	59.09	50.82	0.02	0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.18	0.12	25.00	28.52	-0.09	-0.05
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.14	0.12	56.52	55.20	0.02	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.13	0.10	59.09	57.28	0.02	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.11	0.10	47.37	42.16	-0.01	-0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.11	0.10	82.61	80.42	0.07	0.06
Pittsburgh	BE	0.11	0.10	60.87	58.16	0.02	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.15	0.10	65.22	60.58	0.05	0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.10	0.10	17.39	22.00	-0.07	-0.05
Richmond	A10	0.11	0.10	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.09	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.09	4.35	9.66	-0.04	-0.08
Austin Peay	OVC	0.09	0.09	33.33	35.97	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.09	33.33	34.47	-0.02	-0.03
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.09	0.00	4.02	-0.05	-0.09
Charlotte	A10	0.10	0.09	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.10	0.09	34.78	33.43	-0.03	-0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.10	0.09	81.82	76.80	0.06	0.05
Western Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.09	40.91	42.96	-0.02	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.11	0.09	69.57	65.87	0.04	0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.09	10.00	14.93	-0.04	-0.06
Chicago St.	GWC	0.14	0.09	4.76	9.95	-0.13	-0.07
St. John's	BE	0.10	0.09	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.02
Florida International	SB	0.13	0.07	33.33	37.16	-0.04	-0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.11	0.07	72.73	68.28	0.05	0.03
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.06	0.07	13.64	16.35	-0.04	-0.05
Old Dominion	CAA	0.06	0.07	60.00	58.29	0.01	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.10	0.07	71.43	66.60	0.04	0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.11	0.07	70.83	71.64	0.05	0.03
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.00	0.07	47.06	50.75	-0.00	0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.06	61.90	58.59	0.01	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.10	0.06	68.18	69.68	0.04	0.03
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.06	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.06	79.17	78.10	0.03	0.04
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.06	66.67	69.69	0.02	0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.00	0.06	25.00	37.58	-0.00	-0.02
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.06	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.06	100.00	94.55	0.05	0.06
Connecticut	BE	0.10	0.06	68.18	63.99	0.04	0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	35.29	39.85	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.06	47.83	50.65	-0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.06	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.06	76.00	72.50	0.03	0.03
Long Island	NEC	0.05	0.06	70.83	71.05	0.02	0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.06	41.67	38.67	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.06	30.00	37.30	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.06	17.39	24.41	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.06	66.67	60.80	0.02	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.11	0.06	78.26	78.39	0.06	0.03
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.11	0.06	54.55	56.84	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.06	69.57	65.15	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.06	78.26	72.34	0.03	0.03
Creighton	MVC	0.09	0.06	87.50	85.41	0.07	0.04
Florida	SEC	0.10	0.06	82.61	77.63	0.07	0.03
Iowa	B10	0.09	0.06	54.17	49.44	0.01	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.09	0.06	33.33	37.25	-0.03	-0.02
Providence	BE	0.05	0.06	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.06	45.45	46.08	-0.00	-0.00
Albany	AE	0.05	0.03	60.00	60.42	0.01	0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.03	55.00	54.80	0.01	0.00
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.03	19.05	21.29	-0.03	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.03	20.00	19.96	-0.03	-0.02
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.03	91.30	87.18	0.04	0.02
Monmouth	NEC	0.05	0.03	28.00	28.91	-0.02	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.03	26.09	28.60	-0.03	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.00	0.03	81.82	77.20	0.00	0.02
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	57.15	0.01	0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.03	45.45	45.55	-0.00	-0.00
Utah	P12	0.05	0.03	18.18	15.01	-0.03	-0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.03	34.78	34.48	-0.02	-0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.03	8.33	10.86	-0.04	-0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	45.70	-0.00	-0.00
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.03	14.29	17.17	-0.04	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.03	70.83	68.82	0.02	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.58	0.03	0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.03	33.33	38.38	-0.02	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.00	0.03	45.00	46.13	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	55.95	0.01	0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.03	19.05	24.61	-0.03	-0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.00	0.03	80.00	76.84	0.00	0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.03	72.22	63.19	0.02	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.03	24.00	24.86	-0.03	-0.02
Butler	Horz	0.00	0.03	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.03	19.05	22.37	-0.03	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.00	0.03	75.00	75.78	0.00	0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.43	0.02	0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.00	0.03	35.00	35.31	-0.00	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.03	71.43	69.05	0.02	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.00	0.03	43.48	43.82	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.03	38.89	43.93	-0.01	-0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.03	30.00	31.54	-0.02	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.03	62.50	61.50	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.00	0.03	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.03	68.18	69.10	0.02	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.03	63.64	56.71	0.01	0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.03	27.78	29.58	-0.02	-0.01
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.03	25.00	25.13	-0.03	-0.01
Belmont	ASun	0.05	0.03	69.57	73.28	0.02	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.00	0.03	30.43	26.44	-0.00	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.03	80.95	77.38	0.03	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	39.13	42.12	-0.01	-0.00
Louisville	BE	0.00	0.03	78.26	72.66	0.00	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.00	0.03	65.00	60.02	0.00	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.03	30.00	34.15	-0.02	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.03	72.73	66.81	0.02	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.03	76.19	72.91	0.03	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	62.65	0.02	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.03	59.09	54.70	0.01	0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.00	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.00	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.00	0.03	54.55	48.60	0.00	-0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.01	0.05	0.02
Temple	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	75.06	0.03	0.01
Washington	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	66.54	0.02	0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	65.17	0.02	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	41.67	40.61	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.01