Presbyterian

Conference:	BSth
Expected RPI:	319.0
Current RPI:	319
Expected SOS:	294
Current SOS:	294
Current Record:	8-21
Expected Record:	8-21
Current Conf Record:	4-15
Expected Conf Record:	4-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-11
Current OOC Record:	4-6
Expected OOC Record:	4-6
Expected OOC RPI:	238
Expected OOC SOS:	240

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
8-21	319.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Presbyterian.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Tennessee (8.0)	SEC	A	88-53	L	0%
11-16	North Carolina St. (64.0)	ACC	A	86-68	L	0%
11-18	VMI (313.0)	SC	A	78-58	L	0%
11-20	Charlotte (323.0)	CUSA	A	83-74	L	0%
11-23	Nicholls St. (145.0)	Slnd	N	76-64	L	0%
11-24	Chicago St. (335.0)	WAC	N	75-73	W	100%
11-28	UNC Greensboro (65.0)	SC	H	74-72	W	100%
12-2	North Carolina A&T (238.0)	MEAC	H	73-70	W	100%
12-5	South Carolina St. (331.0)	MEAC	H	88-77	W	100%
12-19	Virginia Tech (61.0)	ACC	A	63-55	L	0%
12-30	Radford (128.0)	BSth	H	62-78	L	0%
1-3	Longwood (337.0)	BSth	A	65-78	W	100%
1-6	Liberty (211.0)	BSth	A	60-48	L	0%
1-9	Campbell (267.0)	BSth	H	79-83	L	0%
1-12	UNC Asheville (130.0)	BSth	H	56-76	L	0%
1-15	High Point (273.0)	BSth	A	73-49	L	0%
1-18	Gardner Webb (244.0)	BSth	A	61-53	L	0%
1-21	Winthrop (173.0)	BSth	H	68-81	L	0%
1-24	Charleston Southern (261.0)	BSth	A	49-57	W	100%
1-27	Liberty (211.0)	BSth	H	66-81	L	0%
2-1	Longwood (337.0)	BSth	H	67-62	W	100%
2-3	UNC Asheville (130.0)	BSth	A	75-61	L	0%
2-7	Winthrop (173.0)	BSth	A	63-49	L	0%
2-10	Charleston Southern (261.0)	BSth	H	54-64	L	0%
2-15	High Point (273.0)	BSth	H	69-62	W	100%
2-18	Radford (128.0)	BSth	A	74-68	L	0%
2-22	Gardner Webb (244.0)	BSth	H	63-78	L	0%
2-24	Campbell (267.0)	BSth	A	72-56	L	0%
2-27	Charleston Southern (261.0)	BSth	A	68-51	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Presbyterian's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Presbyterian's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Presbyterian.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Presbyterian	BSth	26.50	26.50	26.77	26.77	-12.31	-12.31
Charleston Southern	BSth	6.25	6.25	40.00	40.00	-1.25	-1.25
Radford	BSth	4.72	4.72	60.00	60.00	0.94	0.94
Liberty	BSth	4.66	4.66	51.72	51.72	0.16	0.16
UNC Asheville	BSth	4.64	4.64	58.62	58.62	0.80	0.80
Longwood	BSth	4.63	4.63	14.29	14.29	-3.31	-3.31
Winthrop	BSth	4.59	4.59	53.85	53.85	0.35	0.35
High Point	BSth	4.56	4.56	40.00	40.00	-0.91	-0.91
Gardner Webb	BSth	4.51	4.51	33.33	33.33	-1.50	-1.50
Campbell	BSth	4.50	4.50	42.31	42.31	-0.69	-0.69
VMI	SC	2.01	2.01	22.22	22.22	-1.12	-1.12
UNC Greensboro	SC	1.98	1.98	80.00	80.00	1.19	1.19
North Carolina St.	ACC	1.96	1.96	64.52	64.52	0.57	0.57
South Carolina St.	MEAC	1.93	1.93	27.59	27.59	-0.87	-0.87
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	1.83	1.83	58.06	58.06	0.30	0.30
Virginia Tech	ACC	1.83	1.83	64.52	64.52	0.53	0.53
Tennessee	SEC	1.81	1.81	75.00	75.00	0.91	0.91
Charlotte	CUSA	1.79	1.79	14.81	14.81	-1.26	-1.26
Chicago St.	WAC	1.72	1.72	3.45	3.45	-1.61	-1.61
Nicholls St.	Slnd	1.72	1.72	59.26	59.26	0.32	0.32
The Citadel	SC	0.36	0.36	27.59	27.59	-0.16	-0.16
Furman	SC	0.29	0.29	67.74	67.74	0.10	0.10
USC Upstate	ASun	0.27	0.27	10.71	10.71	-0.21	-0.21
Wofford	SC	0.26	0.26	60.00	60.00	0.05	0.05
Western Carolina	SC	0.24	0.24	36.67	36.67	-0.06	-0.06
Wake Forest	ACC	0.22	0.22	35.48	35.48	-0.06	-0.06
Mercer	SC	0.20	0.20	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.17	0.17	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Hampton	MEAC	0.17	0.17	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.17	0.17	16.67	16.67	-0.11	-0.11
Clemson	ACC	0.16	0.16	71.88	71.88	0.07	0.07
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.16	0.16	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Davidson	A10	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Chattanooga	SC	0.15	0.15	25.81	25.81	-0.07	-0.07
Auburn	SEC	0.15	0.15	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
Florida St.	ACC	0.15	0.15	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.15	0.15	71.88	71.88	0.06	0.06
Jacksonville	ASun	0.14	0.14	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.14	0.14	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
Howard	MEAC	0.14	0.14	25.81	25.81	-0.07	-0.07
Notre Dame	ACC	0.14	0.14	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
College of Charleston	CAA	0.12	0.12	77.42	77.42	0.07	0.07
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.12	0.12	80.00	80.00	0.07	0.07
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.12	0.12	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.12	0.12	25.81	25.81	-0.06	-0.06
Samford	SC	0.12	0.12	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Georgia	SEC	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.11	0.11	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	6.67	6.67	-0.09	-0.09
Virginia	ACC	0.11	0.11	93.94	93.94	0.10	0.10
North Carolina	ACC	0.11	0.11	71.43	71.43	0.05	0.05
Kentucky	SEC	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.09	0.09	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.09	0.09	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Illinois St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
VCU	A10	0.09	0.09	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.09	0.09	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.09	0.09	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.09	0.09	10.71	10.71	-0.07	-0.07
Penn St.	B10	0.09	0.09	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Saint Louis	A10	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.09	0.09	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
UCF	Amer	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.09	0.09	83.33	83.33	0.06	0.06
Florida	SEC	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	15.62	15.62	-0.06	-0.06
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Elon	CAA	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Duke	ACC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Louisville	ACC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
FIU	CUSA	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
New Orleans	Slnd	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	8.00	8.00	-0.05	-0.05
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
UMBC	AE	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.06	0.06	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Maryland	B10	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.06	0.06	26.92	26.92	-0.03	-0.03
Cornell	Ivy	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Iowa	B10	0.06	0.06	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	SB	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Houston	Amer	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Monmouth	MAAC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.06	0.06	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.04	0.04
Nevada	MWC	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Idaho	BSky	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.02	0.02
North Texas	CUSA	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
UTEP	CUSA	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Oakland	Horz	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
LSU	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01