Presbyterian

Conference:	BSth
Expected RPI:	340.0
Current RPI:	340
Expected SOS:	317
Current SOS:	317
Current Record:	5-24
Expected Record:	5-24
Current Conf Record:	4-13
Expected Conf Record:	4-13
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-15
Current OOC Record:	1-11
Expected OOC Record:	1-11
Expected OOC RPI:	338
Expected OOC SOS:	281

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
5-24	340.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Presbyterian.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Clemson (185.0)	ACC	A	77-44	L	0%
11-14	Georgia Tech (149.0)	ACC	A	52-38	L	0%
11-18	Creighton (25.0)	MVC	A	87-58	L	0%
11-20	Wisconsin (32.0)	B10	A	88-43	L	0%
11-23	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	N	55-89	L	0%
11-24	Florida A&M (331.0)	MEAC	N	55-69	L	0%
12-9	Furman (343.0)	SC	A	81-57	L	0%
12-15	Jacksonville St. (142.0)	OVC	H	59-66	L	0%
12-18	Tennessee (59.0)	SEC	A	78-62	L	0%
12-22	Appalachian St. (265.0)	SC	A	78-70	L	0%
12-29	South Carolina (222.0)	SEC	A	76-60	L	0%
1-5	Virginia Military Inst (302.0)	BSth	H	77-86	L	0%
1-9	Coastal Carolina (259.0)	BSth	A	61-43	L	0%
1-12	Campbell (289.0)	BSth	H	46-62	L	0%
1-16	Winthrop (269.0)	BSth	A	62-51	L	0%
1-19	Liberty (288.0)	BSth	H	68-60	W	100%
1-23	Charleston Southern (189.0)	BSth	H	59-79	L	0%
1-26	Longwood (332.0)	BSth	A	71-82	W	100%
1-30	NC Asheville (217.0)	BSth	H	74-77	L	0%
2-2	High Point (249.0)	BSth	A	78-68	L	0%
2-6	Gardner Webb (194.0)	BSth	H	57-54	W	100%
2-9	Radford (316.0)	BSth	A	76-65	L	0%
2-13	Coastal Carolina (259.0)	BSth	H	53-60	L	0%
2-16	Winthrop (269.0)	BSth	H	64-57	W	100%
2-19	Charleston Southern (189.0)	BSth	A	72-54	L	0%
2-23	The Citadel (330.0)	SC	H	68-65	W	100%
2-27	NC Asheville (217.0)	BSth	A	74-62	L	0%
3-2	Gardner Webb (194.0)	BSth	A	76-57	L	0%
3-5	Campbell (289.0)	BSth	N	81-73	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Presbyterian's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Presbyterian's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Presbyterian.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Presbyterian	BSth	26.22	26.22	15.70	15.70	-17.98	-17.98
Charleston Southern	BSth	4.29	4.29	53.85	53.85	0.33	0.33
Gardner Webb	BSth	4.26	4.26	60.71	60.71	0.91	0.91
NC Asheville	BSth	4.23	4.23	40.74	40.74	-0.78	-0.78
Winthrop	BSth	4.23	4.23	38.46	38.46	-0.98	-0.98
Coastal Carolina	BSth	4.19	4.19	37.50	37.50	-1.05	-1.05
Campbell	BSth	4.13	4.13	32.14	32.14	-1.48	-1.48
Liberty	BSth	2.60	2.60	38.71	38.71	-0.59	-0.59
Longwood	BSth	2.56	2.56	20.00	20.00	-1.53	-1.53
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	2.50	2.50	37.04	37.04	-0.65	-0.65
Radford	BSth	2.47	2.47	32.14	32.14	-0.88	-0.88
High Point	BSth	2.43	2.43	51.85	51.85	0.09	0.09
The Citadel	SC	2.05	2.05	22.22	22.22	-1.14	-1.14
Clemson	ACC	1.96	1.96	40.00	40.00	-0.39	-0.39
Appalachian St.	SC	1.93	1.93	42.86	42.86	-0.28	-0.28
Furman	SC	1.87	1.87	14.29	14.29	-1.34	-1.34
Georgia Tech	ACC	1.81	1.81	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	1.81	1.81	61.29	61.29	0.41	0.41
South Carolina	SEC	1.81	1.81	41.94	41.94	-0.29	-0.29
Jacksonville St.	OVC	1.78	1.78	56.00	56.00	0.21	0.21
Florida A&M	MEAC	1.78	1.78	17.86	17.86	-1.14	-1.14
Wisconsin	B10	1.78	1.78	66.67	66.67	0.59	0.59
Cornell	Ivy	1.78	1.78	37.93	37.93	-0.43	-0.43
Creighton	MVC	1.78	1.78	78.79	78.79	1.02	1.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.34	0.34	72.73	72.73	0.15	0.15
Western Carolina	SC	0.33	0.33	38.71	38.71	-0.07	-0.07
Wofford	SC	0.27	0.27	38.71	38.71	-0.06	-0.06
Davidson	SC	0.21	0.21	78.12	78.12	0.12	0.12
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.21	0.21	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.21	0.21	36.67	36.67	-0.06	-0.06
Elon	SC	0.21	0.21	63.33	63.33	0.06	0.06
Samford	SC	0.21	0.21	32.26	32.26	-0.07	-0.07
Ohio St.	B10	0.20	0.20	78.79	78.79	0.11	0.11
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.19	0.19	37.04	37.04	-0.05	-0.05
Georgia Southern	SC	0.18	0.18	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
NC Greensboro	SC	0.18	0.18	24.14	24.14	-0.09	-0.09
Wake Forest	ACC	0.17	0.17	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.17	0.17	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.17	0.17	70.59	70.59	0.07	0.07
Alabama	SEC	0.17	0.17	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Indiana St.	MVC	0.17	0.17	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.17	0.17	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.16	0.16	76.47	76.47	0.09	0.09
Virginia	ACC	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Boston University	AE	0.16	0.16	58.62	58.62	0.03	0.03
Akron	MAC	0.15	0.15	80.65	80.65	0.09	0.09
Charlotte	A10	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Austin Peay	OVC	0.15	0.15	20.69	20.69	-0.09	-0.09
Mississippi	SEC	0.15	0.15	76.47	76.47	0.08	0.08
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.15	0.15	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.15	0.15	28.12	28.12	-0.06	-0.06
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.14	0.14	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
East Carolina	CUSA	0.14	0.14	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.14	0.14	69.70	69.70	0.06	0.06
Arkansas	SEC	0.14	0.14	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.14	0.14	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois	B10	0.14	0.14	63.64	63.64	0.04	0.04
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.13	0.13	31.25	31.25	-0.05	-0.05
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.13	0.13	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.12	0.12	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Hampton	MEAC	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.12	0.12	67.86	67.86	0.04	0.04
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	14.29	14.29	-0.08	-0.08
Howard	MEAC	0.11	0.11	20.69	20.69	-0.07	-0.07
Boston College	ACC	0.11	0.11	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.11	0.11	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
Missouri	SEC	0.11	0.11	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Nebraska	B10	0.11	0.11	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.11	0.11	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Florida International	SB	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.09	0.09	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Western Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.09	0.09	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
Rider	MAAC	0.09	0.09	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.09	0.09	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.09	0.09	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.09	0.09	29.63	29.63	-0.03	-0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.09	0.09	93.75	93.75	0.07	0.07
Duke	ACC	0.08	0.08	84.38	84.38	0.06	0.06
Arizona St.	P12	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.08	0.08	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Kentucky	SEC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
California	P12	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Drake	MVC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.07	0.07	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Morehead St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
West Virginia	B12	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.06	0.06	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	70.37	70.37	0.02	0.02
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.06	0.06	59.26	59.26	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Yale	Ivy	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	10.00	10.00	-0.05	-0.05
Maryland	ACC	0.06	0.06	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.05	81.25	81.25	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.02	0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	28.00	28.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	7.14	7.14	-0.03	-0.03
Mercer	ASun	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	6.90	6.90	-0.02	-0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.02	0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	SB	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00