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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


VCU

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:135.0
Current RPI:135
Expected SOS:100
Current SOS:100
Current Record:18-15
Expected Record:18-15
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-1
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:102
Expected OOC SOS:36



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-15135.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for VCU.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Grambling St. (249.0)SWACH94-65W100%0.0
11-13North Florida (218.0)ASunH95-85W100%0.0
11-17Virginia (1.0)ACCH67-76L0%0.0
11-20Marquette (58.0)BEN83-94L0%0.0
11-21California (216.0)P12N69-83W100%0.0
11-22Michigan (12.0)B10N68-60L0%0.0
11-28Appalachian St. (250.0)SBH85-72W100%0.0
12-2Old Dominion (78.0)CUSAH82-75W100%0.0
12-5Texas (51.0)B12H67-71L0%0.0
12-9Seton Hall (31.0)BEA90-67L0%0.0
12-16Bucknell (80.0)PatH85-79W100%0.0
12-19Winthrop (173.0)BSthH69-55W100%0.0
12-22VMI (313.0)SCH75-65W100%0.0
12-30Fordham (290.0)A10H76-63W100%0.0
1-3Saint Joseph's (147.0)A10A87-81L0%0.0
1-6La Salle (202.0)A10A74-80W100%0.0
1-9Duquesne (259.0)A10H78-67W100%0.0
1-12Dayton (146.0)A10A106-79L0%0.0
1-17Richmond (176.0)A10H52-67L0%0.0
1-20George Washington (195.0)A10H87-63W100%0.0
1-23Saint Louis (148.0)A10A74-75W100%0.0
1-27George Mason (201.0)A10A76-84W100%0.0
2-2Rhode Island (19.0)A10H68-81L0%0.0
2-7Richmond (176.0)A10A77-76L0%0.0
2-10Dayton (146.0)A10H88-84W100%0.0
2-14Davidson (47.0)A10H63-74L0%0.0
2-17George Washington (195.0)A10A80-56L0%0.0
2-21Massachusetts (240.0)A10A78-82W100%0.0
2-24St. Bonaventure (24.0)A10H63-68L0%0.0
2-28George Mason (201.0)A10H80-81L0%0.0
3-3Fordham (290.0)A10A58-83W100%0.0
3-8Dayton (146.0)A10N77-72W100%0.0
3-9Rhode Island (19.0)A10N76-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

VCU's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


VCU's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  VCU.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VCUA1026.1726.1749.6849.68-0.17-0.17
DaytonA105.095.0946.4346.43-0.36-0.36
Rhode IslandA103.723.7276.6776.671.981.98
RichmondA103.693.6933.3333.33-1.23-1.23
George WashingtonA103.673.6745.1645.16-0.36-0.36
George MasonA103.643.6448.3948.39-0.12-0.12
FordhamA103.603.6031.0331.03-1.36-1.36
DavidsonA102.352.3564.5264.520.680.68
DuquesneA102.262.2651.6151.610.070.07
MassachusettsA102.252.2540.6240.62-0.42-0.42
Saint Joseph'sA102.252.2548.3948.39-0.07-0.07
Saint LouisA102.232.2351.6151.610.070.07
St. BonaventureA102.182.1877.4277.421.191.19
La SalleA102.182.1841.9441.94-0.35-0.35
Old DominionCUSA1.641.6480.6580.651.001.00
BucknellPat1.611.6175.7675.760.830.83
Seton HallBE1.611.6164.5264.520.470.47
VirginiaACC1.591.5993.7593.751.391.39
MichiganB101.561.5678.7978.790.900.90
MarquetteBE1.561.5658.0658.060.250.25
VMISC1.561.5625.9325.93-0.75-0.75
Appalachian St.SB1.541.5443.3343.33-0.21-0.21
North FloridaASun1.541.5437.9337.93-0.37-0.37
TexasB121.541.5456.2556.250.190.19
CaliforniaP121.521.5226.6726.67-0.71-0.71
Grambling St.SWAC1.521.5255.1755.170.160.16
WinthropBSth1.521.5259.2659.260.280.28
ProvidenceBE0.190.1961.7661.760.040.04
VillanovaBE0.170.1788.2488.240.130.13
ButlerBE0.170.1760.6160.610.040.04
AuburnSEC0.150.1578.1278.120.080.08
GeorgetownBE0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
HarvardIvy0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
XavierBE0.140.1484.8584.850.100.10
Holy CrossPat0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
AkronMAC0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
PennIvy0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
DePaulBE0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
St. John'sBE0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
Florida St.ACC0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
West VirginiaB120.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
VermontAE0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
TempleAmer0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.110.1171.4371.430.050.05
Penn St.B100.110.1161.7661.760.030.03
RadfordBSth0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.1071.8871.880.050.05
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
NJITASun0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.1084.8584.850.070.07
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1024.2424.24-0.05-0.05
WagnerNEC0.100.1070.0070.000.040.04
MaineAE0.100.1013.3313.33-0.07-0.07
AmericanPat0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
RutgersB100.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0955.8855.880.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
Iowa St.B120.090.0941.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
IowaB100.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
PurdueB100.090.0982.3582.350.060.06
LafayettePat0.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
FurmanSC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
The CitadelSC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
CampbellBSth0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0712.5012.50-0.06-0.06
StetsonASun0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
LipscombASun0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
SeattleWAC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
HofstraCAA0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Little RockSB0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
OhioMAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.079.689.68-0.06-0.06
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
LSUSEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
NevadaMWC0.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
UABCUSA0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.070.0787.8887.880.050.05
PrincetonIvy0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
TCUB120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0775.0075.000.030.03
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
SamfordSC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
USCP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
WashingtonP120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Wichita St.Amer0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
BrownIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
DukeACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
OklahomaB120.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.040.0441.3841.38-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
NebraskaB100.040.0468.7568.750.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
ColoradoP120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
OregonP120.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.023.333.33-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.026.676.67-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
HoustonAmer0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.020.0282.7682.760.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
YaleIvy0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
BYUWCC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
MississippiSEC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.028.008.00-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
IllinoisB100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01