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Through games of Feb 24, 2017.


VCU

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:22.1
Current RPI:24
Expected SOS:65
Current SOS:78
Current Record:23-5
Expected Record:25-6
Current Conf Record:13-2
Expected Conf Record:15-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:12-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:43
Expected OOC SOS:77



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-517.012.28%
25-620.543.81%
24-724.438.19%
23-830.95.71%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for VCU.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11UNC Asheville (67.7)BSthH80-65W100%0.0
11-15Liberty (160.0)BSthA59-64W100%0.0
11-18Binghamton (293.1)AEH81-42W100%0.0
11-23Baylor (8.2)B12N71-63L0%0.0
11-24St. John's (129.3)BEN69-75W100%0.0
11-25LSU (183.8)SECN74-85W100%0.0
11-29Princeton (53.4)IvyH81-70W100%0.0
12-3Illinois (65.1)B10N64-46L0%0.0
12-7Georgia Tech (94.2)ACCH73-76L0%0.0
12-10Old Dominion (126.3)CUSAA64-67W100%0.0
12-17Middle Tennessee (36.3)CUSAH80-77W100%0.0
12-22Louisiana Monroe (305.4)SBH78-65W100%0.0
12-27Howard (339.3)MEACH85-51W100%0.0
12-30George Mason (108.6)A10A64-73W100%0.0
1-4Duquesne (244.0)A10A87-94W100%0.0
1-7Massachusetts (186.9)A10H81-64W100%0.0
1-11George Washington (128.9)A10H85-55W100%0.0
1-14Davidson (113.6)A10A69-63L0%0.0
1-18Fordham (191.4)A10A69-67L0%0.0
1-22La Salle (108.0)A10H90-52W100%0.0
1-27Dayton (22.2)A10H73-68W100%0.0
2-1Richmond (98.5)A10H81-74W100%0.0
2-4St. Bonaventure (94.1)A10A77-83W100%0.0
2-8George Washington (128.9)A10A53-54W100%0.0
2-11Davidson (113.6)A10H74-60W100%0.0
2-14Saint Joseph's (169.9)A10H91-81W100%0.0
2-17Richmond (98.5)A10A73-84W100%0.0
2-22Saint Louis (256.9)A10H64-50W100%0.0
2-25Rhode Island (46.5)A10A0-042%-2.1
3-1Dayton (22.2)A10A0-034%-4.3
3-4George Mason (108.6)A10H0-084%10.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

VCU's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


VCU's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  VCU.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VCUA1026.1226.1181.4579.6616.4315.49
George WashingtonA104.133.8757.6956.240.640.48
RichmondA104.133.8764.0064.291.161.11
George MasonA102.343.8165.3865.230.721.16
DavidsonA104.133.8152.0051.350.170.10
DaytonA102.283.7684.6284.281.582.58
Rhode IslandA100.622.2966.6767.110.210.78
FordhamA102.342.2942.3142.02-0.36-0.36
Saint LouisA102.282.2633.3332.04-0.76-0.81
DuquesneA102.342.2637.0435.73-0.61-0.64
Saint Joseph'sA102.352.2438.4639.90-0.54-0.45
MassachusettsA102.252.2348.1547.70-0.08-0.10
St. BonaventureA102.282.2365.3865.620.700.70
La SalleA102.282.2056.0056.830.270.30
Old DominionCUSA1.981.8065.3866.310.610.59
LibertyBSth1.861.7061.5459.970.430.34
St. John'sBE1.881.7044.4443.45-0.21-0.22
HowardMEAC1.881.6920.0022.22-1.13-0.94
UNC AshevilleBSth1.821.6774.0774.320.880.81
PrincetonIvy1.851.6777.2778.171.010.94
LSUSEC1.821.6434.6232.87-0.56-0.56
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.821.6488.4688.391.401.26
BinghamtonAE1.821.6434.6236.13-0.56-0.45
BaylorB121.791.6180.7777.811.100.90
Georgia TechACC1.791.6153.8551.130.140.04
IllinoisB101.791.6153.8553.480.140.11
Louisiana MonroeSB1.791.6120.8322.50-1.04-0.89
Penn St.B100.260.2450.0048.670.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.230.2276.9277.640.120.12
HarvardIvy0.200.1968.1866.630.070.06
PennIvy0.180.1750.0051.610.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.160.1715.3815.99-0.11-0.11
Gardner WebbBSth0.160.1451.8551.860.010.01
UMBCAE0.160.1461.5460.470.040.03
KansasB120.160.1489.2987.850.130.10
MercerSC0.130.1440.7440.79-0.02-0.03
HoustonAmer0.100.1470.3769.140.040.05
CharlotteCUSA0.170.1444.0043.86-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.170.1460.0059.410.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.130.1459.2657.880.020.02
MarylandB100.170.1477.7876.970.090.07
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.170.130.003.37-0.17-0.13
James MadisonCAA0.130.1327.5928.31-0.06-0.06
Texas TechB120.170.1360.7159.310.040.03
GeorgiaSEC0.130.1355.5656.820.010.02
MississippiSEC0.160.1360.7159.880.040.03
TempleAmer0.160.1348.2850.62-0.010.00
UABCUSA0.130.1351.8553.240.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.150.1239.1339.38-0.03-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.070.1225.0023.78-0.04-0.06
CampbellBSth0.130.1138.4639.14-0.03-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.130.1128.0029.55-0.06-0.05
HartfordAE0.130.1130.0029.21-0.05-0.05
High PointBSth0.130.1146.1546.22-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.130.1111.5411.25-0.10-0.09
RadfordBSth0.130.1140.7440.82-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.140.1173.3373.730.070.05
HamptonMEAC0.140.1141.6743.50-0.02-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.130.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
FIUCUSA0.100.1115.3815.92-0.07-0.07
ClemsonACC0.130.1151.8553.670.000.01
MissouriSEC0.130.1125.9325.76-0.06-0.05
NorthwesternB100.100.1171.4368.340.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1153.5751.910.010.00
VMISC0.100.1116.0016.76-0.07-0.07
GeorgetownBE0.100.1150.0049.120.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1130.7733.73-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.130.1151.8553.540.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.1151.7249.530.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.130.1157.1455.800.020.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.1146.4346.32-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.130.1146.6747.98-0.01-0.00
VillanovaBE0.130.1189.6688.770.100.08
Florida St.ACC0.130.1178.5776.230.070.06
ProvidenceBE0.060.1060.7160.840.010.02
CornellIvy0.070.0924.0024.06-0.04-0.05
BrownIvy0.080.0940.0039.77-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.100.0866.6764.650.030.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.0874.0774.070.050.04
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0825.0027.75-0.03-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0825.9327.42-0.03-0.04
William & MaryCAA0.070.0850.0050.280.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.0872.4172.930.040.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0877.7878.000.040.05
Little RockSB0.100.0844.0043.40-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0842.3141.73-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.100.0882.1480.650.060.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.0875.0077.130.050.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0876.0076.570.040.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.0821.4321.22-0.06-0.05
St. Francis PANEC0.100.0844.4445.01-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.100.0864.2963.110.030.02
TexasB120.070.0835.7134.82-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.0859.2662.740.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.100.0832.1430.39-0.04-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0829.1729.18-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.100.0878.5778.530.060.05
North TexasCUSA0.100.0824.0025.26-0.05-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.100.0821.4321.43-0.06-0.05
RiceCUSA0.100.0865.3863.500.030.02
Southern MissCUSA0.100.0823.0822.45-0.05-0.04
ToledoMAC0.100.0850.0051.290.000.00
TowsonCAA0.070.0862.0761.420.020.02
West VirginiaB120.070.0878.5777.800.040.04
MarquetteBE0.100.0862.9661.410.030.02
Kansas St.B120.100.0860.7159.900.020.02
Michigan St.B100.060.0860.7158.900.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.0840.0040.93-0.02-0.01
SyracuseACC0.060.0858.6257.910.010.01
Miami FLACC0.100.0870.3767.230.040.03
XavierBE0.100.0864.2964.300.030.02
UCFAmer0.100.0864.2963.830.030.02
YaleIvy0.080.0656.5258.980.010.01
LehighPat0.070.0659.2660.170.010.01
LafayettePat0.070.0625.9325.63-0.03-0.03
AlbanyAE0.070.0658.6259.810.010.01
MaineAE0.030.0617.2417.48-0.02-0.04
New HampshireAE0.070.0657.6958.050.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.070.0660.7159.030.010.01
VermontAE0.070.0682.7682.940.040.04
FurmanSC0.060.0664.2964.510.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0669.2368.790.020.02
ArmyPat0.070.0639.2938.46-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.070.0653.5752.880.000.00
Arizona St.P120.070.0644.8343.70-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0669.2368.610.030.02
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0629.6329.38-0.01-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0646.1547.50-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0625.9326.04-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0620.0020.88-0.04-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0657.6955.370.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0650.0049.420.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0656.0055.930.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0657.1456.420.000.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0628.5728.97-0.01-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0689.2989.470.030.04
Texas St.SB0.040.0654.1753.200.000.00
ColgatePat0.060.0531.0332.74-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.060.0548.1549.03-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.070.0527.5927.07-0.03-0.03
IUPUISum0.070.0540.7441.11-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.060.0555.1754.740.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.070.0544.0042.78-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0520.0022.20-0.04-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.070.0575.0071.890.030.02
AuburnSEC0.070.0560.7159.640.010.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0580.0079.920.020.03
BradleyMVC0.030.0534.4834.78-0.01-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0551.8549.980.00-0.00
DukeACC0.030.0578.5776.180.020.03
FloridaSEC0.070.0582.1480.620.040.03
IowaB100.070.0553.5751.600.000.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0566.6764.760.010.02
Kent St.MAC0.030.0555.5655.060.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0570.3770.850.030.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0551.8550.690.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0550.0051.400.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0548.1547.59-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0575.0074.380.020.03
OklahomaB120.070.0533.3333.58-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0566.6765.160.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0530.7734.72-0.01-0.02
RutgersB100.030.0542.8642.31-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0558.3359.280.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.070.0548.0047.16-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.070.0559.2657.620.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0551.8552.290.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0551.8551.680.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0582.1482.160.040.03
UTEPCUSA0.030.0542.3143.40-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0538.4638.15-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.070.0544.4443.90-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0556.6756.420.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0550.0050.070.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0537.5042.40-0.02-0.01
KentuckySEC0.060.0582.1481.770.040.03
MinnesotaB100.060.0575.0073.550.030.02
PittsburghACC0.030.0553.5750.740.000.00
RiderMAAC0.060.0553.3353.360.000.00
TulaneAmer0.060.0518.5218.47-0.04-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0586.2186.340.050.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0522.2224.26-0.04-0.03
ButlerBE0.060.0578.5777.630.040.03
CreightonBE0.030.0577.7875.390.020.03
DePaulBE0.060.0532.1430.88-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.060.0562.9661.770.020.01
South FloridaAmer0.060.0525.9325.24-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.040.0328.0030.82-0.02-0.01
CaliforniaP120.040.0367.8666.460.010.01
HawaiiBW0.040.0348.0047.52-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.040.0383.3382.370.030.02
LamarSlnd0.030.0350.0052.020.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0339.2940.09-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0314.2918.11-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.030.0325.0025.07-0.02-0.01
BryantNEC0.040.0334.4836.16-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.040.0365.3866.650.010.01
ColoradoP120.040.0353.5753.850.000.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0335.7134.89-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.030.0353.5754.770.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.040.0337.5040.16-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.0045.05-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0346.1546.91-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.040.0327.2728.62-0.02-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0333.3334.36-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.040.0341.6739.81-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0328.0029.87-0.02-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.040.0350.0052.060.000.00
TroySB0.040.0353.8552.820.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0322.2222.74-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0352.1749.970.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.030.0348.1548.67-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0389.2987.810.000.02
DetroitHorz0.030.0325.0024.68-0.02-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0342.8643.65-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0337.0437.13-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0344.8345.02-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0382.1481.640.020.02
LipscombASun0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0357.1457.070.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0326.6726.21-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0344.4444.54-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0330.0030.54-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0364.2963.440.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0368.0068.590.010.01
OregonP120.030.0385.7185.950.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.030.0328.5728.29-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.030.0382.1480.800.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0343.3342.94-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0358.6258.370.010.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0370.3770.550.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0342.8644.04-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0357.6956.380.010.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.96-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0379.3178.670.000.02
VirginiaACC0.030.0366.6767.620.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0370.3769.240.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0378.5778.400.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.030.0362.9661.290.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0341.6741.96-0.01-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0311.5411.61-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0325.0026.70-0.02-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0346.1546.97-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0362.0761.150.010.01
PacificWCC0.030.0331.0331.58-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0355.5656.300.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0314.8115.42-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0348.2848.16-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0311.5412.95-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0360.7160.450.010.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0353.8554.280.000.00