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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


VCU

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:22.0
Current RPI:22
Expected SOS:58
Current SOS:58
Current Record:26-8
Expected Record:26-8
Current Conf Record:16-5
Expected Conf Record:16-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:12-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:46
Expected OOC SOS:78



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-822.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for VCU.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11UNC Asheville (73.0)BSthH80-65W100%0.0
11-15Liberty (172.0)BSthA59-64W100%0.0
11-18Binghamton (311.0)AEH81-42W100%0.0
11-23Baylor (11.0)B12N71-63L0%0.0
11-24St. John's (140.0)BEN69-75W100%0.0
11-25LSU (193.0)SECN74-85W100%0.0
11-29Princeton (47.0)IvyH81-70W100%0.0
12-3Illinois (62.0)B10N64-46L0%0.0
12-7Georgia Tech (105.0)ACCH73-76L0%0.0
12-10Old Dominion (138.0)CUSAA64-67W100%0.0
12-17Middle Tennessee (34.0)CUSAH80-77W100%0.0
12-22Louisiana Monroe (298.0)SBH78-65W100%0.0
12-27Howard (337.0)MEACH85-51W100%0.0
12-30George Mason (103.0)A10A64-73W100%0.0
1-4Duquesne (267.0)A10A87-94W100%0.0
1-7Massachusetts (195.0)A10H81-64W100%0.0
1-11George Washington (102.0)A10H85-55W100%0.0
1-14Davidson (93.0)A10A69-63L0%0.0
1-18Fordham (215.0)A10A69-67L0%0.0
1-22La Salle (133.0)A10H90-52W100%0.0
1-27Dayton (30.0)A10H73-68W100%0.0
2-1Richmond (80.0)A10H81-74W100%0.0
2-4St. Bonaventure (91.0)A10A77-83W100%0.0
2-8George Washington (102.0)A10A53-54W100%0.0
2-11Davidson (93.0)A10H74-60W100%0.0
2-14Saint Joseph's (197.0)A10H91-81W100%0.0
2-17Richmond (80.0)A10A73-84W100%0.0
2-22Saint Louis (238.0)A10H64-50W100%0.0
2-25Rhode Island (31.0)A10A69-59L0%0.0
3-1Dayton (30.0)A10A79-72L0%0.0
3-4George Mason (103.0)A10H72-60W100%0.0
3-10George Mason (103.0)A10N71-60W100%0.0
3-11Richmond (80.0)A10N87-77W100%0.0
3-12Rhode Island (31.0)A10N63-70L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

VCU's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


VCU's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  VCU.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VCUA1026.2626.2677.0377.0314.1914.19
RichmondA105.085.0868.9768.971.931.93
George MasonA105.015.0165.5265.521.551.55
George WashingtonA103.703.7061.2961.290.840.84
DavidsonA103.683.6853.3353.330.250.25
Rhode IslandA103.643.6470.9770.971.531.53
DaytonA103.543.5478.5778.572.022.02
FordhamA102.212.2136.6736.67-0.59-0.59
Saint LouisA102.192.1937.5037.50-0.55-0.55
MassachusettsA102.162.1646.8846.88-0.14-0.14
St. BonaventureA102.142.1464.5264.520.620.62
Saint Joseph'sA102.122.1236.6736.67-0.56-0.56
DuquesneA102.122.1232.2632.26-0.75-0.75
La SalleA102.112.1151.7251.720.070.07
Old DominionCUSA1.681.6863.3363.330.450.45
LibertyBSth1.551.5557.1457.140.220.22
St. John'sBE1.541.5443.7543.75-0.19-0.19
HowardMEAC1.541.5425.8125.81-0.74-0.74
UNC AshevilleBSth1.521.5272.4172.410.680.68
PrincetonIvy1.521.5281.4881.480.960.96
LSUSEC1.491.4933.3333.33-0.50-0.50
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.491.4990.6290.621.211.21
BinghamtonAE1.491.4932.1432.14-0.53-0.53
BaylorB121.471.4776.6776.670.780.78
Georgia TechACC1.471.4750.0050.000.000.00
IllinoisB101.471.4753.3353.330.100.10
Louisiana MonroeSB1.471.4723.3323.33-0.78-0.78
Penn St.B100.230.2345.4545.45-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.200.2046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.190.1980.0080.000.120.12
LongwoodBSth0.170.1714.2914.29-0.12-0.12
HarvardIvy0.170.1761.5461.540.040.04
HoustonAmer0.160.1667.7467.740.060.06
James MadisonCAA0.160.1628.1228.12-0.07-0.07
UMBCAE0.140.1457.1457.140.020.02
Texas TechB120.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
MercerSC0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.140.1474.1974.190.070.07
MarshallCUSA0.140.1455.8855.880.020.02
RadfordBSth0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.120.1225.9325.93-0.06-0.06
BucknellPat0.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
AlabamaSEC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.120.1214.2914.29-0.08-0.08
KansasB120.120.1287.5087.500.090.09
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
MississippiSEC0.120.1260.6160.610.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
VillanovaBE0.120.1291.1891.180.090.09
GeorgetownBE0.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.113.333.33-0.11-0.11
UABCUSA0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
High PointBSth0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.100.1010.7110.71-0.08-0.08
ColumbiaIvy0.100.1038.4638.46-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
BrownIvy0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.100.1067.6567.650.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.090.0968.5768.570.030.03
FIUCUSA0.090.0917.2417.24-0.06-0.06
William & MaryCAA0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
Kansas St.B120.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
ClemsonACC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
MissouriSEC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0928.1228.12-0.04-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
TowsonCAA0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
SienaMAAC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
CornellIvy0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
NebraskaB100.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Texas St.SB0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
TexasB120.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
West VirginiaB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Little RockSB0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
RiceCUSA0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
SyracuseACC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
BradleyMVC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.070.0777.1477.140.040.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
ToledoMAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
MarquetteBE0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
BelmontOVC0.070.0777.7877.780.040.04
Holy CrossPat0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
LehighPat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
MaineAE0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
VermontAE0.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
LafayettePat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
IndianaB100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
PortlandWCC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
ArmyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
IowaB100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
OklahomaB120.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
IUPUISum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.8887.880.030.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.040.0420.0020.00-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.040.0474.1974.190.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.040.0485.2985.290.030.03
CreightonBE0.040.0472.7372.730.020.02
DePaulBE0.040.0428.1228.12-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.040.0425.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.040.0423.3323.33-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.040.0474.1974.190.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
LamarSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
BryantNEC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
ColoradoP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
DetroitHorz0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01
LipscombASun0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0236.0036.00-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
OregonP120.020.0284.8584.850.020.02
PurdueB100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
SeattleWAC0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
VirginiaACC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
WisconsinB100.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
AmericanPat0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0244.4444.44-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
WagnerNEC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00