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Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


VCU

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:127.8
Current RPI:130
Expected SOS:118
Current SOS:104
Current Record:12-8
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:4-3
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-2
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:126
Expected OOC SOS:53



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-861.60.25%
22-973.01.99%
21-1086.67.76%
20-11101.816.62%
19-12118.624.66%
18-13136.523.50%
17-14154.715.45%
16-15172.37.12%
15-16188.82.18%
14-17203.40.42%
13-18216.50.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for VCU.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Grambling St. (287.3)SWACH94-65W100%0.0
11-13North Florida (242.2)ASunH95-85W100%0.0
11-17Virginia (3.8)ACCH67-76L0%0.0
11-20Marquette (52.9)BEN83-94L0%0.0
11-21California (190.8)P12N69-83W100%0.0
11-22Michigan (37.9)B10N68-60L0%0.0
11-28Appalachian St. (269.4)SBH85-72W100%0.0
12-2Old Dominion (74.5)CUSAH82-75W100%0.0
12-5Texas (43.7)B12H67-71L0%0.0
12-9Seton Hall (25.7)BEA90-67L0%0.0
12-16Bucknell (86.6)PatH85-79W100%0.0
12-19Winthrop (163.3)BSthH69-55W100%0.0
12-22VMI (315.2)SCH75-65W100%0.0
12-30Fordham (280.9)A10H76-63W100%0.0
1-3Saint Joseph's (150.4)A10A87-81L0%0.0
1-6La Salle (181.1)A10A74-80W100%0.0
1-9Duquesne (212.7)A10H78-67W100%0.0
1-12Dayton (111.7)A10A106-79L0%0.0
1-17Richmond (201.5)A10H52-67L0%0.0
1-20George Washington (199.0)A10H87-63W100%0.0
1-23Saint Louis (175.5)A10A0-052%0.6
1-27George Mason (225.0)A10A0-068%5.0
2-2Rhode Island (14.2)A10H0-033%-4.9
2-7Richmond (201.5)A10A0-059%2.5
2-10Dayton (111.7)A10H0-064%3.9
2-14Davidson (82.8)A10H0-049%-0.4
2-17George Washington (199.0)A10A0-062%3.3
2-21Massachusetts (198.4)A10A0-057%2.1
2-24St. Bonaventure (50.0)A10H0-048%-0.6
2-28George Mason (225.0)A10H0-085%11.4
3-3Fordham (280.9)A10A0-075%7.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

VCU's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


VCU's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  VCU.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VCUA1026.3226.1051.2255.080.642.65
RichmondA102.883.8627.7831.76-1.28-1.41
George WashingtonA102.703.8147.3745.16-0.14-0.37
George MasonA100.193.8145.0042.49-0.02-0.57
DaytonA102.763.7944.4449.72-0.31-0.02
FordhamA102.763.7633.3330.22-0.92-1.49
DavidsonA100.402.3658.8261.800.070.56
DuquesneA102.832.3173.6860.031.340.46
Rhode IslandA100.322.2883.3381.970.211.46
Saint Joseph'sA102.752.2847.0649.97-0.16-0.00
La SalleA102.752.2542.1144.11-0.43-0.27
MassachusettsA100.202.2550.0046.950.00-0.14
Saint LouisA100.192.2547.3746.90-0.01-0.14
St. BonaventureA100.202.2066.6769.320.070.85
Old DominionCUSA2.631.7283.3379.421.751.01
BucknellPat2.701.7265.0070.270.810.70
Seton HallBE2.571.6973.6866.841.220.57
VirginiaACC2.501.6794.4485.632.221.19
MichiganB102.631.6775.0069.791.310.66
VMISC2.561.6726.6725.07-1.20-0.83
MarquetteBE2.561.6666.6759.170.850.31
Appalachian St.SB2.501.6433.3337.52-0.83-0.41
North FloridaASun2.561.6433.3336.45-0.85-0.44
TexasB122.561.6463.1657.220.670.24
CaliforniaP122.501.6138.8932.18-0.56-0.57
Grambling St.SWAC2.501.6138.8945.55-0.56-0.14
WinthropBSth2.501.6153.3361.810.170.38
ProvidenceBE0.070.1970.0060.470.030.04
James MadisonCAA0.200.1625.0028.25-0.10-0.07
GeorgetownBE0.190.1668.4254.080.070.01
ButlerBE0.190.1666.6763.070.060.04
HarvardIvy0.200.1637.5046.70-0.05-0.01
VillanovaBE0.200.1694.7490.310.180.13
XavierBE0.190.1685.7180.060.140.09
AuburnSEC0.140.1489.4776.990.110.07
Miami FLACC0.190.1377.7870.410.110.05
VermontAE0.190.1375.0077.870.100.07
Florida St.ACC0.130.1373.6869.660.060.05
St. John'sBE0.130.1347.3742.16-0.01-0.02
West VirginiaB120.190.1380.0076.040.120.07
Holy CrossPat0.120.1330.0032.58-0.05-0.05
LouisvilleACC0.060.1378.9569.820.040.05
TempleAmer0.260.1352.6351.740.010.00
Penn St.B100.060.1361.9055.820.010.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.160.1225.0031.44-0.08-0.04
WoffordSC0.210.1268.7563.660.080.03
Western CarolinaSC0.140.1138.8935.38-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.140.1177.7879.160.080.07
AkronMAC0.130.1147.0644.92-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.200.1125.0026.03-0.10-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.190.1161.1158.710.040.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.190.1110.0019.62-0.16-0.07
Georgia St.SB0.130.1166.6765.550.040.03
North CarolinaACC0.180.1176.1972.570.100.05
HamptonMEAC0.190.1125.0043.18-0.10-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.190.1165.0054.600.060.01
MaineAE0.140.1110.5314.83-0.11-0.08
MarylandB100.120.1166.6763.130.040.03
PennIvy0.130.1164.7162.690.040.03
RutgersB100.190.1155.0046.650.02-0.01
CreightonBE0.130.1175.0070.720.060.04
DePaulBE0.070.1142.1134.30-0.01-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.1052.6355.280.000.01
Kansas St.B120.060.1075.0065.320.030.03
LafayettePat0.060.1022.2227.46-0.03-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.1033.3340.35-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.080.0916.6716.15-0.05-0.06
PresbyterianBSth0.160.0927.7827.11-0.07-0.04
RadfordBSth0.160.0957.8958.880.020.02
FurmanSC0.160.0966.6768.540.050.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0952.6358.610.000.02
CampbellBSth0.080.0947.0647.41-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.140.0968.7567.610.050.03
MercerSC0.140.0944.4454.87-0.020.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0957.8966.270.000.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.140.0815.7922.64-0.10-0.05
JacksonvilleASun0.130.0833.3333.76-0.04-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.140.0866.6755.900.050.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.140.0855.0052.480.010.00
LipscombASun0.130.0852.9459.380.010.02
NJITASun0.130.0838.8942.58-0.03-0.01
StetsonASun0.060.0833.3336.93-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.130.0835.2935.54-0.04-0.02
LSUSEC0.190.0861.1153.190.040.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.130.0872.2258.880.060.01
South AlabamaSB0.130.0850.0045.850.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0823.5325.63-0.03-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.130.0883.3381.420.090.05
Ohio St.B100.130.0881.8276.870.080.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.130.0810.0016.77-0.10-0.05
Georgia TechACC0.130.0852.6343.040.01-0.01
IowaB100.130.0847.6243.94-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0838.8943.36-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.130.0890.4888.390.100.06
Saint Mary'sWCC0.130.0890.4888.970.110.06
SeattleWAC0.130.0857.8954.500.020.01
SyracuseACC0.070.0868.4261.280.020.02
UABCUSA0.070.0861.1164.150.010.02
UCLAP120.130.0865.0062.050.040.02
Virginia TechACC0.070.0870.0060.400.030.02
Wake ForestACC0.130.0842.1140.46-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.140.0847.3741.43-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.130.0850.0046.270.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0866.6765.390.020.02
Iowa St.B120.190.0857.8946.220.03-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.130.0850.0050.860.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.0815.0020.28-0.09-0.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.080.0010.26-0.06-0.06
NorthwesternB100.060.0855.0050.370.010.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.130.0833.3335.21-0.04-0.02
WagnerNEC0.130.0864.7164.560.040.02
LehighPat0.130.0838.8944.74-0.03-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.190.0827.7841.03-0.08-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.130.0852.9460.230.010.02
TCUB120.060.0875.0067.830.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0817.6519.29-0.04-0.05
William & MaryCAA0.070.0864.7160.010.020.02
New HampshireAE0.130.0833.3340.10-0.04-0.02
Texas TechB120.130.0878.9571.750.070.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0638.8940.78-0.02-0.01
High PointBSth0.080.0643.7549.22-0.01-0.00
LibertyBSth0.080.0650.0054.180.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0622.2228.570.00-0.03
SamfordSC0.000.0627.7832.670.00-0.02
The CitadelSC0.080.0618.7518.37-0.05-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0616.6724.90-0.04-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.070.0611.1118.00-0.05-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.140.0665.0056.350.040.01
Michigan St.B100.130.0685.7183.760.090.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.130.0642.1144.98-0.02-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0627.7831.080.00-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0627.7838.120.00-0.01
Little RockSB0.000.0622.2225.190.00-0.03
NevadaMWC0.000.0685.7182.120.000.04
Texas St.SB0.070.0657.8950.210.010.00
TroySB0.070.0638.8944.43-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0660.0062.010.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.130.0526.6729.12-0.06-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.070.0533.3334.10-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0552.9452.250.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.060.0568.4259.020.020.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0517.6527.34-0.04-0.02
ArizonaP120.070.0580.0078.940.040.03
Arizona St.P120.070.0578.9576.160.040.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0533.3339.890.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0589.4785.550.050.04
DelawareCAA0.070.0547.3743.00-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.060.0521.0525.99-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0537.5037.67-0.02-0.01
HofstraCAA0.070.0557.8959.500.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0570.0068.210.030.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0540.0042.51-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0568.4263.610.020.01
Miami OHMAC0.070.0547.0641.38-0.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.130.0544.4446.66-0.01-0.00
OhioMAC0.070.0547.0648.43-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0557.8950.860.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0525.0039.91-0.03-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.070.0531.5840.82-0.02-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0541.1838.47-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.070.0555.0050.330.010.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0557.8953.220.010.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0520.0040.93-0.04-0.01
TulaneAmer0.070.0563.1657.870.020.01
UC RiversideBW0.130.0517.6523.84-0.08-0.03
USCP120.070.0571.4368.300.030.02
WashingtonP120.070.0570.0061.460.030.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0568.4270.820.020.02
Wichita St.Amer0.130.0578.9577.380.080.03
DukeACC0.060.0589.4785.240.050.04
IndianaB100.120.0560.0052.880.020.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0563.6457.610.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0557.1453.040.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.060.0563.1663.210.020.01
PittsburghACC0.060.0540.0030.88-0.01-0.02
SienaMAAC0.060.0528.5729.93-0.03-0.02
TowsonCAA0.130.0563.1665.980.030.02
VanderbiltSEC0.130.0536.8435.58-0.03-0.02
ArmyPat0.060.0561.1160.440.010.01
BaylorB120.060.0557.8953.280.010.00
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0550.0053.280.000.00
ColgatePat0.060.0550.0051.030.000.00
HowardMEAC0.060.0510.5326.29-0.05-0.02
KansasB120.060.0584.2179.760.040.03
Loyola MDPat0.060.0522.2228.66-0.03-0.02
NavyPat0.000.0560.0055.160.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0577.7868.030.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0568.4254.040.020.00
RiderMAAC0.060.0565.0065.330.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.130.0542.1146.09-0.02-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.0542.1139.930.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0566.6763.450.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0547.0654.680.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0345.0041.31-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0326.3230.45-0.04-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0346.6747.00-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.070.0373.6871.600.030.01
MissouriSEC0.070.0366.6763.150.020.01
BrownIvy0.000.0350.0045.130.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0366.6765.630.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0368.7564.010.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0360.0064.130.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0383.3384.250.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.070.0335.0026.13-0.02-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0322.2227.310.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0344.4446.01-0.01-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0350.0052.500.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0358.8249.740.01-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0372.2274.940.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.070.0323.5328.20-0.03-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.0356.2556.820.010.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0361.9063.170.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0345.0049.28-0.01-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0362.5058.710.010.00
Chicago St.WAC0.070.030.003.06-0.07-0.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0384.2173.180.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.0360.0053.720.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0342.1132.46-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0329.4133.93-0.03-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0338.8944.07-0.01-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0370.0071.220.030.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0378.9573.000.000.01
IllinoisB100.060.0345.0043.62-0.01-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0342.1145.98-0.01-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0344.4446.03-0.01-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0372.2274.730.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0370.5975.960.000.01
NebraskaB100.060.0363.6459.480.020.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0317.6534.76-0.04-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0341.1839.14-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0363.1661.000.000.01
OregonP120.000.0365.0063.810.000.01
Portland St.BSky0.070.0358.8263.210.010.01
RiceCUSA0.070.0311.1117.68-0.05-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0316.6724.44-0.05-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0358.8262.830.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0331.5836.43-0.02-0.01
South DakotaSum0.070.0373.6872.400.030.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0342.1143.500.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0352.9455.030.000.00
ToledoMAC0.070.0366.6767.670.020.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0345.0045.03-0.01-0.00
UtahP120.000.0363.1659.720.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0341.1839.660.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0341.1847.610.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.060.0368.4264.160.020.01
BYUWCC0.000.0380.9576.240.000.01
CornellIvy0.060.0333.3333.23-0.02-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.030.008.42-0.06-0.02
DrexelCAA0.060.0330.0030.97-0.03-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0323.5332.57-0.03-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.060.0380.9583.260.040.02
LamarSlnd0.060.0350.0054.900.000.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0352.6345.860.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0355.5657.250.010.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.037.1414.82-0.05-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0335.0031.820.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0357.1460.410.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0350.0048.730.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0361.1151.910.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.060.0336.8445.19-0.02-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0335.2940.46-0.02-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0333.3333.870.00-0.01