live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Dec 19, 2014.


Radford

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:177.7
Current RPI:124
Expected SOS:309
Current SOS:212
Current Record:5-4
Expected Record:17-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-4
Current OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC RPI:127
Expected OOC SOS:225



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-569.80.06%
22-682.50.39%
21-799.21.72%
20-8113.74.29%
19-9131.110.08%
18-10149.315.85%
17-11168.319.94%
16-12188.319.09%
15-13209.314.10%
14-14230.38.85%
13-15249.53.80%
12-16268.71.38%
11-17283.60.37%
10-18301.00.07%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Radford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Richmond (86.4)A10A64-46L0%0.0
11-17James Madison (119.7)CAAA74-71L0%0.0
11-20Howard (277.7)MEACH61-52W100%0.0
11-26TCU (66.4)B12A74-50L0%0.0
11-28North Carolina A&T (332.2)MEACN57-65W100%0.0
11-29Texas A&M Corpus Chris (318.8)SlndA46-57W100%0.0
12-7Virginia Tech (213.1)ACCA66-68W100%0.0
12-13Georgetown (46.6)BEA76-49L0%0.0
12-19Siena (213.1)MAACH76-66W100%0.0
12-21Cornell (178.8)IvyH0-059%2.7
12-31UNC Asheville (225.1)BSthH0-066%4.9
1-3Longwood (317.0)BSthA0-067%5.0
1-8Gardner Webb (164.8)BSthA0-034%-4.7
1-10Presbyterian (341.9)BSthH0-097%21.7
1-15Campbell (226.2)BSthA0-042%-2.3
1-17Winthrop (265.9)BSthA0-044%-1.8
1-22High Point (157.4)BSthH0-067%5.2
1-24Liberty (320.4)BSthH0-082%10.6
1-28Charleston Southern (205.8)BSthA0-041%-2.7
1-31Winthrop (265.9)BSthH0-072%6.9
2-3High Point (157.4)BSthA0-038%-3.5
2-6Charleston Southern (205.8)BSthH0-070%6.0
2-11Longwood (317.0)BSthH0-088%13.7
2-14Presbyterian (341.9)BSthA0-087%13.0
2-16Coastal Carolina (138.2)BSthH0-048%-0.6
2-21UNC Asheville (225.1)BSthA0-037%-3.8
2-26Liberty (320.4)BSthA0-057%1.9
2-28Gardner Webb (164.8)BSthH0-063%4.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Radford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Radford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Radford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RadfordBSth27.6526.4367.5762.919.716.82
LongwoodBSth0.284.5820.0026.79-0.17-2.12
High PointBSth0.314.5762.5056.930.080.63
LibertyBSth0.314.5325.0035.39-0.15-1.32
PresbyterianBSth0.004.530.008.13-0.00-3.79
WinthropBSth0.004.5325.0044.78-0.00-0.47
Gardner WebbBSth0.004.5037.5050.55-0.000.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.004.5014.2944.84-0.00-0.46
Charleston SouthernBSth0.004.4942.8650.30-0.000.03
CampbellBSth0.282.8925.0044.08-0.14-0.34
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.002.8557.1471.150.001.20
James MadisonCAA5.861.9766.6759.531.950.38
Virginia TechACC5.561.9262.5039.911.39-0.39
RichmondA106.111.9150.0055.840.000.22
HowardMEAC6.101.8833.3345.09-2.03-0.18
CornellIvy0.001.8555.5648.430.00-0.06
GeorgetownBE5.901.8262.5058.151.480.30
North Carolina A&TMEAC5.831.820.0025.21-5.83-0.90
SienaMAAC5.561.8237.5050.65-1.390.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd5.861.8228.5729.65-2.51-0.74
TCUB125.561.79100.0065.825.560.57
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.2318.1827.79-0.00-0.10
ClemsonACC0.000.2360.0044.120.00-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.1922.2237.12-0.00-0.05
William & MaryCAA0.590.1857.1456.650.080.02
FurmanSC0.280.1622.2231.52-0.15-0.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.310.1618.1836.00-0.20-0.04
Ohio St.B100.510.1690.0084.460.410.11
Miami OHMAC0.310.1630.0028.56-0.12-0.07
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1650.0045.370.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1650.0053.800.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1471.4364.140.000.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1455.5637.870.00-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1420.0041.08-0.00-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.130.0017.19-0.00-0.09
WoffordSC0.000.1377.7875.790.000.07
MississippiSEC0.280.1370.0052.530.110.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.1320.0029.91-0.00-0.05
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1360.0063.510.000.04
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1366.6766.120.000.04
PrincetonIvy0.000.1333.3340.96-0.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.1390.0067.320.000.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1362.5067.130.000.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.1350.0038.230.00-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.310.1381.8264.670.200.04
Wake ForestACC0.000.1350.0038.520.00-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.540.1390.0081.790.430.08
DelawareCAA0.000.120.007.43-0.00-0.11
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.540.1238.4644.31-0.12-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.1254.5559.120.000.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.1250.0046.960.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.1266.6766.380.000.04
AuburnSEC0.000.1044.4435.91-0.00-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1020.0045.49-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.1033.3331.23-0.00-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.280.1037.5038.43-0.07-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.109.0929.87-0.00-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.310.1022.2240.60-0.17-0.02
DukeACC0.000.09100.0087.560.000.07
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0014.67-0.00-0.07
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0940.0046.66-0.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0945.4550.81-0.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0918.1831.71-0.00-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.090.0012.00-0.00-0.07
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.280.0944.4469.77-0.030.04
UMBCAE0.280.0910.0020.97-0.22-0.05
New OrleansSlnd0.280.0920.0046.54-0.17-0.01
ButlerBE0.310.0980.0072.370.190.04
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0955.5661.600.000.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0936.3647.58-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.860.0933.3332.70-0.29-0.03
ColgatePat0.280.0920.0043.07-0.17-0.01
FordhamA100.310.0928.5728.06-0.13-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.860.0910.0018.50-0.69-0.06
Saint LouisA100.580.0960.0033.900.12-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.280.0928.5737.33-0.12-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0987.5076.810.000.05
Miami FLACC0.280.0981.8266.320.180.03
DrexelCAA0.000.0925.0036.23-0.00-0.02
George MasonA100.000.0925.0026.38-0.00-0.04
KansasB120.310.0988.8969.210.240.03
St. BonaventureA100.310.0975.0065.210.150.03
SyracuseACC0.000.0966.6758.330.000.01
TowsonCAA0.310.0966.6751.280.100.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0966.6757.890.000.01
VirginiaACC0.280.09100.0085.760.280.06
West VirginiaB120.000.0990.0067.450.000.03
Colorado St.MWC0.000.07100.0078.490.000.04
MarylandB100.000.0790.9167.370.000.02
UABCUSA0.000.0730.0036.94-0.00-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0760.0057.640.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0760.0064.750.000.02
ArizonaP120.000.07100.0082.300.000.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0718.1838.45-0.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0766.6754.760.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0710.0018.22-0.00-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0772.7367.410.000.02
LSUSEC0.000.0780.0064.030.000.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0716.6737.98-0.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.0750.0057.210.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0772.7363.770.000.02
DenverSum0.690.0645.4554.26-0.060.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0620.0039.24-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0675.0074.680.000.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0073.610.000.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0666.6777.530.000.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0616.6719.31-0.00-0.04
BrownIvy0.000.0640.0033.52-0.00-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0662.5064.770.000.02
CreightonBE0.000.0675.0051.760.000.00
DePaulBE0.000.0660.0034.020.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0671.4363.270.000.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0644.4440.07-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0685.7172.890.000.03
IonaMAAC0.000.0666.6772.800.000.03
IowaB100.000.0672.7362.430.000.02
Loyola MDPat0.310.0633.3327.57-0.10-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0622.2237.84-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0610.0018.65-0.00-0.04
MarquetteBE0.000.0660.0049.590.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0644.4456.59-0.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0612.5029.32-0.00-0.03
PennIvy0.000.0637.5033.00-0.00-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.0672.7353.500.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.310.0644.4449.63-0.03-0.00
RiderMAAC0.310.0650.0053.130.000.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0688.8964.830.000.02
USC UpstateASun0.460.0660.0064.800.090.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0081.870.000.04
XavierBE0.000.0680.0070.970.000.03
YaleIvy0.000.0672.7366.650.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0645.4543.81-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.280.0628.5731.22-0.12-0.02
IUPUISum0.280.0620.0027.11-0.17-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.280.0625.0048.53-0.14-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.280.0675.0057.990.140.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.280.0650.0058.380.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.310.060.0035.39-0.31-0.02
UTSACUSA0.350.0642.8637.71-0.05-0.01
MassachusettsA100.310.0660.0055.280.060.01
Penn St.B100.310.0690.9153.570.250.00
BaylorB120.000.0690.0073.800.000.03
ElonCAA0.000.0637.5047.90-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0677.7878.860.000.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0688.8963.400.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0660.0037.150.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.620.0690.0078.440.490.03
OklahomaB120.000.0677.7867.320.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0688.8963.880.000.02
TexasB120.000.0690.0081.650.000.04
Texas TechB120.000.0690.0055.490.000.01
VCUA100.000.0670.0071.450.000.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0340.0049.77-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0333.3345.26-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.000.0372.7357.230.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0336.3638.89-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0320.0027.89-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0314.2933.59-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0018.32-0.00-0.02
NJITind0.000.0336.3641.21-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0036.84-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0023.36-0.00-0.02
AlbanyAE0.310.0333.3348.78-0.10-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.030.0011.87-0.00-0.02
BucknellPat0.000.0340.0036.30-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0377.7870.500.000.01
FloridaSEC0.310.0360.0064.140.060.01
IndianaB100.000.0380.0057.340.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.230.0375.0059.530.120.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.230.0333.3343.01-0.08-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.310.0330.0039.58-0.12-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0355.5654.330.000.00
VermontAE0.310.0344.4457.69-0.030.00
WisconsinB100.310.0390.9188.540.250.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.310.030.0028.67-0.31-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.310.0337.5034.46-0.08-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0366.6742.760.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0377.7869.970.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0377.7851.830.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.009.00-0.00-0.02
La SalleA100.000.0350.0049.930.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0085.970.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.280.0350.0039.610.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0370.0072.100.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0390.9172.430.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6752.850.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.280.030.0039.69-0.28-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0362.5073.430.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0355.5640.440.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0015.18-0.00-0.02
The CitadelSC0.000.0316.6730.30-0.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0380.0070.970.000.01
VMISC0.000.0333.3338.93-0.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.280.0340.0028.84-0.06-0.01