Radford

Conference:	BSth
Expected RPI:	329.0
Current RPI:	329
Expected SOS:	240
Current SOS:	240
Current Record:	4-26
Expected Record:	4-26
Current Conf Record:	2-17
Expected Conf Record:	2-17
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	3-14
Current OOC Record:	2-9
Expected OOC Record:	2-9
Expected OOC RPI:	284
Expected OOC SOS:	109

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
4-26	329.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Radford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Delaware (153.0)	CAA	H	58-54	W	100%
11-14	Penn St. (161.0)	B10	A	62-46	L	0%
11-19	Long Island (80.0)	NEC	N	59-81	L	0%
11-20	Marist (223.0)	MAAC	N	47-60	L	0%
11-23	Kentucky (2.0)	SEC	A	88-40	L	0%
12-1	Charleston Southern (162.0)	BSth	A	83-73	L	0%
12-3	Presbyterian (245.0)	BSth	A	72-64	L	0%
12-6	Charlotte (167.0)	A10	H	49-57	L	0%
12-10	George Mason (82.0)	CAA	H	61-76	L	0%
12-17	Cincinnati (44.0)	BE	A	101-70	L	0%
12-20	Eastern Michigan (243.0)	MAC	H	48-52	L	0%
12-23	Maryland (105.0)	ACC	A	65-60	L	0%
12-31	Gardner Webb (293.0)	BSth	H	55-61	L	0%
1-2	NC Asheville (104.0)	BSth	H	56-66	L	0%
1-5	Winthrop (272.0)	BSth	A	70-54	L	0%
1-12	Liberty (283.0)	BSth	A	69-64	L	0%
1-14	Virginia Military Inst (259.0)	BSth	A	80-76	L	0%
1-17	High Point (268.0)	BSth	H	85-66	W	100%
1-19	Campbell (206.0)	BSth	H	65-73	L	0%
1-21	Coastal Carolina (182.0)	BSth	A	82-62	L	0%
1-26	Virginia Military Inst (259.0)	BSth	H	60-65	L	0%
1-28	Liberty (283.0)	BSth	H	65-67	L	0%
2-2	Winthrop (272.0)	BSth	H	63-77	L	0%
2-9	Gardner Webb (293.0)	BSth	A	54-58	W	100%
2-11	NC Asheville (104.0)	BSth	A	88-62	L	0%
2-14	High Point (268.0)	BSth	A	71-62	L	0%
2-18	Binghamton (344.0)	AE	H	64-59	W	100%
2-23	Presbyterian (245.0)	BSth	H	64-77	L	0%
2-25	Charleston Southern (162.0)	BSth	H	59-65	L	0%
2-27	Virginia Military Inst (259.0)	BSth	A	55-53	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Radford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Radford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Radford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Radford	BSth	26.40	26.40	11.27	11.27	-20.45	-20.45
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	5.98	5.98	40.74	40.74	-1.11	-1.11
NC Asheville	BSth	4.39	4.39	67.86	67.86	1.57	1.57
Winthrop	BSth	4.33	4.33	28.57	28.57	-1.85	-1.85
Charleston Southern	BSth	4.30	4.30	53.85	53.85	0.33	0.33
High Point	BSth	4.27	4.27	37.04	37.04	-1.11	-1.11
Liberty	BSth	4.25	4.25	33.33	33.33	-1.42	-1.42
Gardner Webb	BSth	4.25	4.25	32.14	32.14	-1.52	-1.52
Presbyterian	BSth	4.21	4.21	42.31	42.31	-0.65	-0.65
Coastal Carolina	BSth	2.72	2.72	56.00	56.00	0.33	0.33
Campbell	BSth	2.67	2.67	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	1.73	1.73	69.70	69.70	0.68	0.68
George Mason	CAA	1.72	1.72	71.88	71.88	0.75	0.75
Kentucky	SEC	1.72	1.72	93.94	93.94	1.51	1.51
Delaware	CAA	1.72	1.72	60.00	60.00	0.34	0.34
Penn St.	B10	1.72	1.72	35.48	35.48	-0.50	-0.50
Long Island	NEC	1.69	1.69	75.00	75.00	0.85	0.85
Marist	MAAC	1.69	1.69	41.94	41.94	-0.27	-0.27
Binghamton	AE	1.67	1.67	6.67	6.67	-1.44	-1.44
Charlotte	A10	1.67	1.67	41.38	41.38	-0.29	-0.29
Eastern Michigan	MAC	1.67	1.67	40.00	40.00	-0.33	-0.33
Maryland	ACC	1.67	1.67	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
William & Mary	CAA	0.25	0.25	16.13	16.13	-0.17	-0.17
Old Dominion	CAA	0.24	0.24	60.61	60.61	0.05	0.05
The Citadel	SC	0.23	0.23	14.29	14.29	-0.17	-0.17
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.21	0.21	32.26	32.26	-0.08	-0.08
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.17	0.17	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.17	0.17	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Clemson	ACC	0.17	0.17	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.17	0.17	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.16	0.16	13.33	13.33	-0.12	-0.12
Georgia St.	CAA	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Drexel	CAA	0.16	0.16	81.82	81.82	0.10	0.10
Indiana	B10	0.16	0.16	75.76	75.76	0.08	0.08
North Carolina	ACC	0.16	0.16	85.29	85.29	0.11	0.11
Hofstra	CAA	0.16	0.16	31.25	31.25	-0.06	-0.06
East Carolina	CUSA	0.14	0.14	40.74	40.74	-0.03	-0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.14	0.14	36.36	36.36	-0.04	-0.04
Purdue	B10	0.14	0.14	63.64	63.64	0.04	0.04
Virginia	ACC	0.13	0.13	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
Towson	CAA	0.13	0.13	3.12	3.12	-0.12	-0.12
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.13	0.13	16.13	16.13	-0.09	-0.09
Iona	MAAC	0.13	0.13	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Georgia	SEC	0.13	0.13	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.12	0.12	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Wofford	SC	0.12	0.12	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.12	0.12	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Army	Pat	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Duke	ACC	0.11	0.11	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	10.34	10.34	-0.09	-0.09
Air Force	MWC	0.11	0.11	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.11	0.11	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Western Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.11	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.11	0.11	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.11	0.11	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.11	0.11	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Cornell	Ivy	0.11	0.11	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Hartford	AE	0.11	0.11	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Albany	AE	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Vermont	AE	0.11	0.11	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Marquette	BE	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Tennessee	SEC	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.10	0.10	82.35	82.35	0.07	0.07
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.10	0.10	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.09	0.09	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.09	0.09	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
Florida St.	ACC	0.09	0.09	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Longwood	ind	0.08	0.08	22.22	22.22	-0.05	-0.05
Appalachian St.	SC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Drake	MVC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Marshall	CUSA	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Temple	A10	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Boston University	AE	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.08	0.08	13.79	13.79	-0.06	-0.06
Stony Brook	AE	0.08	0.08	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Chattanooga	SC	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Connecticut	BE	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Xavier	A10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Maine	AE	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Iowa	B10	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
South Florida	BE	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.08	0.08	93.94	93.94	0.07	0.07
Villanova	BE	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.07	0.07	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
St. John's	BE	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Furman	SC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.06	7.14	7.14	-0.05	-0.05
Wichita St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	83.87	83.87	0.04	0.04
Central Florida	CUSA	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	Horz	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Lipscomb	ASun	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.05	25.93	25.93	-0.03	-0.03
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.05	10.34	10.34	-0.04	-0.04
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	64.29	64.29	0.01	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Missouri	B12	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	34.62	34.62	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
DePaul	BE	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.02	0.02	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Portland	WCC	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00