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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Radford

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:192.0
Current RPI:192
Expected SOS:186
Current SOS:186
Current Record:14-15
Expected Record:14-15
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-4
Current OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:95
Expected OOC SOS:42



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-15192.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Radford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Georgetown (106.0)BEA80-82W100%0.0
11-16VCU (37.0)A10A92-74L0%0.0
11-20Siena (104.0)MAACN62-76L0%0.0
11-21Prairie View A&M (334.0)SWACN56-64W100%0.0
11-24Penn St. (125.0)B10A74-86W100%0.0
11-30James Madison (103.0)CAAH68-70L0%0.0
12-3Liberty (264.0)BSthH56-52W100%0.0
12-6Coastal Carolina (164.0)BSthA63-58L0%0.0
12-9Virginia Tech (89.0)ACCH65-74L0%0.0
12-12Howard (328.0)MEACA91-92W100%0.0
12-19UNC Wilmington (45.0)CAAH69-67W100%0.0
12-22Chattanooga (50.0)SCA77-75L0%0.0
12-31High Point (158.0)BSthA77-60L0%0.0
1-6Charleston Southern (298.0)BSthH80-73W100%0.0
1-9Gardner Webb (210.0)BSthA83-61L0%0.0
1-14UNC Asheville (137.0)BSthH91-86W100%0.0
1-16Presbyterian (319.0)BSthA69-68L0%0.0
1-20Campbell (308.0)BSthH78-66W100%0.0
1-24Gardner Webb (210.0)BSthH69-59W100%0.0
1-27Longwood (323.0)BSthA81-90W100%0.0
1-30Winthrop (130.0)BSthA87-77L0%0.0
2-6Coastal Carolina (164.0)BSthH60-72L0%0.0
2-11UNC Asheville (137.0)BSthA59-60W100%0.0
2-13Winthrop (130.0)BSthH84-86L0%0.0
2-18Liberty (264.0)BSthA67-69W100%0.0
2-20High Point (158.0)BSthH72-75L0%0.0
2-25Campbell (308.0)BSthA56-60W100%0.0
2-27Longwood (323.0)BSthH81-92L0%0.0
3-3Presbyterian (319.0)BSthN64-65L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Radford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Radford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Radford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RadfordBSth26.3926.3949.6649.66-0.18-0.18
UNC AshevilleBSth4.574.5768.9768.971.731.73
Gardner WebbBSth4.564.5646.4346.43-0.33-0.33
WinthropBSth4.534.5366.6766.671.511.51
LongwoodBSth4.484.4821.4321.43-2.56-2.56
PresbyterianBSth4.474.4723.0823.08-2.41-2.41
High PointBSth4.474.4761.5461.541.031.03
CampbellBSth4.444.4436.0036.00-1.24-1.24
LibertyBSth4.434.4337.0437.04-1.15-1.15
Coastal CarolinaBSth4.414.4154.1754.170.370.37
Charleston SouthernBSth2.812.8123.0823.08-1.51-1.51
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.871.8779.3179.311.101.10
VCUA101.811.8169.7069.700.710.71
GeorgetownBE1.811.8146.8846.88-0.11-0.11
James MadisonCAA1.781.7863.3363.330.480.48
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.751.7523.3323.33-0.93-0.93
ChattanoogaSC1.721.7283.8783.871.171.17
HowardMEAC1.721.7234.4834.48-0.54-0.54
Penn St.B101.721.7251.6151.610.060.06
SienaMAAC1.721.7262.5062.500.430.43
Virginia TechACC1.721.7256.2556.250.220.22
William & MaryCAA0.290.2962.0762.070.070.07
VMISC0.290.2922.2222.22-0.16-0.16
FurmanSC0.290.2951.6151.610.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.270.2753.3353.330.020.02
DrexelCAA0.260.2620.0020.00-0.15-0.15
Alabama St.SWAC0.230.2341.3841.38-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.200.2043.3343.33-0.03-0.03
RichmondA100.200.2050.0050.000.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.200.2065.6265.620.060.06
WoffordSC0.180.1843.3343.33-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.180.1824.1424.14-0.09-0.09
ElonCAA0.170.1746.6746.67-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.170.1771.8871.880.070.07
Morgan St.MEAC0.150.1526.6726.67-0.07-0.07
GeorgiaSEC0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.150.1548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
George MasonA100.140.1434.3834.38-0.04-0.04
George WashingtonA100.140.1469.7069.700.050.05
WisconsinB100.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
USC UpstateASun0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Wake ForestACC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
Western MichiganMAC0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
DelawareCAA0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
TennesseeSEC0.110.1144.1244.12-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.07-0.07
IowaB100.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
DePaulBE0.110.1129.0329.03-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
HawaiiBW0.100.1083.3383.330.060.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
TulaneAmer0.090.0935.2935.29-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.090.0965.5265.520.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
UMBCAE0.090.0921.8821.88-0.05-0.05
LamarSlnd0.090.0926.9226.92-0.04-0.04
Notre DameACC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
RiderMAAC0.080.0839.3939.39-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
NebraskaB100.080.0847.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
SamfordSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
MassachusettsA100.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0879.4179.410.050.05
IonaMAAC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
VillanovaBE0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0879.4179.410.050.05
DavidsonA100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
AuburnSEC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Texas TechB120.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
MaineAE0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
RutgersB100.060.0619.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0622.8622.86-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
CornellIvy0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
IllinoisB100.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
MercerSC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Ohio St.B100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
BucknellPat0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
MarylandB100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
DaytonA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
St. John'sBE0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
SyracuseACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
XavierBE0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
StanfordP120.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0374.1974.190.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
LipscombASun0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
BrownIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
UABCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
VermontAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
FordhamA100.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
La SalleA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0362.8662.860.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00