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Through games of Nov 21, 2014.


Radford

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:225.4
Current RPI:272
Expected SOS:229
Current SOS:269
Current Record:1-2
Expected Record:12-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-5
Current OOC Record:1-2
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:266
Expected OOC SOS:243



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-649.00.01%
20-767.40.05%
19-887.90.10%
18-9101.90.62%
17-10121.61.56%
16-11142.43.69%
15-12165.18.06%
14-13186.312.58%
13-14208.316.56%
12-15229.117.81%
11-16250.316.11%
10-17270.710.94%
9-18288.86.73%
8-19304.93.39%
7-20317.41.31%
6-21329.90.40%
5-22333.70.07%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Radford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Richmond (76.8)A10A64-46L0%0.0
11-17James Madison (240.3)CAAA74-71L0%0.0
11-20Howard (311.0)MEACH61-52W100%0.0
11-26TCU (162.7)B12A0-015%-12.6
11-28North Carolina A&T (329.4)MEACN0-077%9.1
12-7Virginia Tech (184.3)ACCA0-023%-9.1
12-13Georgetown (46.3)BEA0-06%-18.5
12-19Siena (134.9)MAACH0-040%-3.0
12-21Cornell (256.3)IvyH0-062%3.7
12-31UNC Asheville (194.2)BSthH0-058%2.3
1-3Longwood (327.3)BSthA0-070%6.4
1-8Gardner Webb (98.3)BSthA0-019%-10.4
1-10Presbyterian (268.2)BSthH0-074%7.6
1-15Campbell (289.7)BSthA0-055%1.6
1-17Winthrop (180.6)BSthA0-030%-6.3
1-22High Point (136.0)BSthH0-050%0.1
1-24Liberty (279.6)BSthH0-071%6.8
1-28Charleston Southern (138.5)BSthA0-026%-7.5
1-31Winthrop (180.6)BSthH0-053%0.9
2-3High Point (136.0)BSthA0-028%-7.1
2-6Charleston Southern (138.5)BSthH0-049%-0.4
2-11Longwood (327.3)BSthH0-087%13.6
2-14Presbyterian (268.2)BSthA0-051%0.4
2-16Coastal Carolina (139.1)BSthH0-044%-1.9
2-21UNC Asheville (194.2)BSthA0-034%-4.8
2-26Liberty (279.6)BSthA0-049%-0.4
2-28Gardner Webb (98.3)BSthH0-040%-3.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Radford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Radford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Radford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RadfordBSth34.7226.4833.3345.83-11.57-2.21
LongwoodBSth2.784.7650.0021.230.00-2.74
High PointBSth0.004.75100.0058.110.000.77
WinthropBSth0.004.7150.0056.430.000.61
PresbyterianBSth0.004.710.0033.11-0.00-1.59
LibertyBSth0.004.7150.0041.130.00-0.84
UNC AshevilleBSth0.004.6850.0049.120.00-0.08
Charleston SouthernBSth0.004.68100.0057.940.000.74
Gardner WebbBSth0.004.6866.6766.060.001.50
CampbellBSth0.003.010.0029.59-0.00-1.23
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.002.970.0062.40-0.000.74
James MadisonCAA16.672.0550.0045.480.00-0.19
Virginia TechACC0.001.99100.0040.130.00-0.39
RichmondA1016.671.980.0061.41-16.670.45
HowardMEAC16.671.950.0035.42-16.67-0.57
CornellIvy0.001.9240.0041.78-0.00-0.32
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.001.880.0023.23-0.00-1.01
SienaMAAC0.001.8833.3358.83-0.000.33
GeorgetownBE0.001.85100.0063.800.000.51
TCUB120.001.85100.0053.170.000.12
ClemsonACC0.000.2433.3344.93-0.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.2433.3336.04-0.00-0.07
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.200.0028.95-0.00-0.08
William & MaryCAA2.780.1950.0045.610.00-0.02
FurmanSC0.000.1850.0025.820.00-0.09
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1725.0057.21-0.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.16100.0073.590.000.08
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1650.0040.180.00-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.140.0048.48-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.140.0032.47-0.00-0.05
Western CarolinaSC0.000.140.0045.03-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.140.0031.91-0.00-0.05
WoffordSC0.000.1466.6774.980.000.07
MississippiSEC0.000.1466.6760.220.000.03
CharlotteCUSA0.000.14100.0070.040.000.06
PrincetonIvy0.000.1433.3349.73-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1450.0055.220.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.1450.0033.640.00-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.1350.0056.300.000.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1350.0035.880.00-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.13100.0059.140.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.1350.0041.490.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.130.0033.61-0.00-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1325.0029.11-0.00-0.05
DartmouthIvy0.000.130.0033.39-0.00-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.130.0048.22-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.1266.6777.370.000.07
AuburnSEC0.000.1166.6742.560.00-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.110.0020.87-0.00-0.06
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.110.0054.88-0.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.100.0033.60-0.00-0.03
SamfordSC0.000.1033.3332.57-0.00-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.100.0034.69-0.00-0.03
DukeACC0.000.10100.0086.380.000.07
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.100.0046.41-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.100.0031.68-0.00-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1033.3343.51-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.100.0016.72-0.00-0.07
HamptonMEAC0.000.1033.3359.35-0.000.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.100.0069.29-0.000.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.100.0037.45-0.00-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.10100.0057.010.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.100.0026.04-0.00-0.05
UMBCAE0.000.100.0035.60-0.00-0.03
KansasB120.000.1050.0060.200.000.02
ColgatePat0.000.100.0036.43-0.00-0.03
FordhamA100.000.090.0034.73-0.00-0.03
Miami FLACC2.780.09100.0073.202.780.04
SyracuseACC0.000.0975.0070.210.000.04
TowsonCAA0.000.0966.6745.850.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.090.0038.12-0.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.09100.0048.380.00-0.00
George MasonA100.000.0925.0022.09-0.00-0.05
West VirginiaB120.000.09100.0068.580.000.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.0950.0050.390.000.00
VirginiaACC2.780.09100.0076.262.780.05
NortheasternCAA0.000.09100.0069.720.000.04
ArizonaP120.000.07100.0068.970.000.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.070.0024.25-0.00-0.04
LSUSEC0.000.0766.6756.820.000.01
PurdueB100.000.07100.0060.570.000.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.07100.0062.840.000.02
MarylandB100.000.07100.0063.680.000.02
North FloridaASun0.000.070.0049.10-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.070.0041.45-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.070.0043.40-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0750.0052.540.000.00
AmericanPat0.000.0766.6764.270.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0725.0033.23-0.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.000.07100.0054.180.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.07100.0055.810.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.07100.0037.800.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0775.0054.690.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0766.6768.330.000.03
MarquetteBE0.000.0750.0054.250.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.070.0054.04-0.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.07100.0062.680.000.02
Seton HallBE0.000.07100.0057.560.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.07100.0052.280.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.07100.0067.360.000.02
XavierBE0.000.07100.0076.430.000.04
BrownIvy0.000.0733.3338.39-0.00-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0750.0060.970.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0750.0066.890.000.02
PennIvy0.000.070.0025.28-0.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.07100.0050.220.000.00
YaleIvy0.000.0750.0057.440.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0666.6738.520.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.060.0025.34-0.00-0.03
Penn St.B100.000.0675.0045.210.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0050.900.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0633.3334.47-0.00-0.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0666.6766.940.000.02
IowaB100.000.0650.0067.840.000.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.060.0057.16-0.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.060.0043.44-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0650.0059.350.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0650.0028.860.00-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0650.0055.680.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0666.6751.360.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.060.0036.14-0.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.060.0051.78-0.000.00
IUPUISum0.000.0633.3330.78-0.00-0.02
Old DominionCUSA4.170.06100.0077.164.170.03
PepperdineWCC0.000.06100.0051.000.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0650.0036.850.00-0.02
Saint LouisA100.000.06100.0066.070.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0038.65-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.06100.0063.880.000.02
BaylorB120.000.06100.0068.940.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.06100.0061.270.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0666.6755.230.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0650.0059.230.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0053.870.000.00
TexasB120.000.06100.0084.130.000.04
Texas TechB120.000.0650.0043.560.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.06100.0068.990.000.02
DrexelCAA0.000.060.0034.27-0.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0650.0040.300.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0666.6763.800.000.02
VCUA100.000.06100.0074.770.000.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0450.0062.510.000.01
UCLAP120.000.04100.0061.850.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0366.6766.600.000.01
IndianaB100.000.03100.0063.850.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0333.3338.44-0.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.030.0053.38-0.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.030.0039.15-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0366.6759.850.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.03100.0067.860.000.01
NJITind0.000.0333.3328.81-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0333.3338.27-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0035.17-0.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0333.3331.34-0.00-0.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0350.0063.960.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.0333.3346.82-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.000.0350.0066.020.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0038.98-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.030.0015.68-0.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0041.690.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.03100.0052.690.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0023.71-0.00-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0079.370.000.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0045.64-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0015.85-0.00-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0034.37-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0066.050.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0069.430.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6751.250.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.030.0038.83-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0027.72-0.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.030.0027.74-0.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.030.0028.13-0.00-0.01
VMISC0.000.0350.0043.730.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.000.0333.3327.05-0.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0366.6769.310.000.01
La SalleA100.000.03100.0055.910.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0053.060.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0333.3333.43-0.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0366.6752.470.000.00