Radford

Conference:	BSth
Expected RPI:	316.0
Current RPI:	316
Expected SOS:	334
Current SOS:	334
Current Record:	10-19
Expected Record:	10-19
Current Conf Record:	7-10
Expected Conf Record:	7-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-12
Current OOC Record:	3-9
Expected OOC Record:	3-9
Expected OOC RPI:	304
Expected OOC SOS:	303

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
10-19	316.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Radford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Wake Forest (170.0)	ACC	A	79-67	L	0%
11-16	Towson (157.0)	CAA	N	67-75	L	0%
11-17	Kennesaw St. (341.0)	ASun	N	58-67	W	100%
11-18	Eastern Kentucky (70.0)	OVC	A	83-75	L	0%
11-24	The Citadel (330.0)	SC	A	61-74	W	100%
11-28	Hampton (287.0)	MEAC	H	73-64	W	100%
12-4	Delaware (141.0)	CAA	A	68-59	L	0%
12-8	William & Mary (271.0)	CAA	H	55-60	L	0%
12-19	Charlotte (68.0)	A10	A	68-52	L	0%
12-22	West Virginia (146.0)	B12	A	72-62	L	0%
1-2	North Carolina A&T (213.0)	MEAC	A	81-77	L	0%
1-5	Charleston Southern (189.0)	BSth	H	74-81	L	0%
1-9	High Point (249.0)	BSth	H	59-54	W	100%
1-12	NC Asheville (217.0)	BSth	A	79-61	L	0%
1-16	Longwood (332.0)	BSth	H	82-72	W	100%
1-19	Gardner Webb (194.0)	BSth	A	51-52	W	100%
1-23	Campbell (289.0)	BSth	A	69-60	L	0%
1-26	Winthrop (269.0)	BSth	H	58-57	W	100%
1-30	Virginia Military Inst (302.0)	BSth	H	69-70	L	0%
2-2	Coastal Carolina (259.0)	BSth	A	62-52	L	0%
2-5	Liberty (288.0)	BSth	A	75-70	L	0%
2-9	Presbyterian (340.0)	BSth	H	76-65	W	100%
2-13	Virginia Military Inst (302.0)	BSth	A	79-82	W	100%
2-16	Longwood (332.0)	BSth	A	76-61	L	0%
2-19	Campbell (289.0)	BSth	H	66-72	L	0%
2-24	Siena (295.0)	MAAC	A	65-57	L	0%
2-27	High Point (249.0)	BSth	A	58-63	W	100%
3-2	Liberty (288.0)	BSth	H	56-73	L	0%
3-5	Winthrop (269.0)	BSth	N	58-60	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Radford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Radford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Radford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Radford	BSth	26.19	26.19	37.21	37.21	-6.70	-6.70
Liberty	BSth	4.32	4.32	33.33	33.33	-1.44	-1.44
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	4.26	4.26	38.46	38.46	-0.98	-0.98
High Point	BSth	4.26	4.26	57.69	57.69	0.66	0.66
Longwood	BSth	4.22	4.22	17.24	17.24	-2.77	-2.77
Campbell	BSth	4.21	4.21	32.14	32.14	-1.50	-1.50
Winthrop	BSth	4.10	4.10	38.46	38.46	-0.95	-0.95
Charleston Southern	BSth	2.61	2.61	55.56	55.56	0.29	0.29
Gardner Webb	BSth	2.53	2.53	62.07	62.07	0.61	0.61
Presbyterian	BSth	2.47	2.47	17.86	17.86	-1.59	-1.59
NC Asheville	BSth	2.46	2.46	42.86	42.86	-0.35	-0.35
Coastal Carolina	BSth	2.43	2.43	40.00	40.00	-0.49	-0.49
William & Mary	CAA	1.98	1.98	39.29	39.29	-0.42	-0.42
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	1.90	1.90	70.00	70.00	0.76	0.76
Towson	CAA	1.89	1.89	55.17	55.17	0.20	0.20
The Citadel	SC	1.87	1.87	22.22	22.22	-1.04	-1.04
Hampton	MEAC	1.82	1.82	46.67	46.67	-0.12	-0.12
Wake Forest	ACC	1.82	1.82	40.00	40.00	-0.36	-0.36
West Virginia	B12	1.81	1.81	38.71	38.71	-0.41	-0.41
Charlotte	A10	1.81	1.81	64.52	64.52	0.53	0.53
Delaware	CAA	1.81	1.81	56.25	56.25	0.23	0.23
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	1.81	1.81	51.52	51.52	0.05	0.05
Kennesaw St.	ASun	1.81	1.81	10.34	10.34	-1.43	-1.43
Siena	MAAC	1.72	1.72	22.58	22.58	-0.95	-0.95
James Madison	CAA	0.31	0.31	58.82	58.82	0.06	0.06
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.28	0.28	31.03	31.03	-0.11	-0.11
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.28	0.28	53.12	53.12	0.02	0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.21	0.21	38.71	38.71	-0.05	-0.05
Old Dominion	CAA	0.20	0.20	16.67	16.67	-0.13	-0.13
Northeastern	CAA	0.20	0.20	62.50	62.50	0.05	0.05
Georgia St.	CAA	0.20	0.20	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.20	0.20	19.35	19.35	-0.12	-0.12
Howard	MEAC	0.19	0.19	20.69	20.69	-0.11	-0.11
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.19	0.19	67.86	67.86	0.07	0.07
Richmond	A10	0.19	0.19	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.19	0.19	20.69	20.69	-0.11	-0.11
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.19	0.19	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
College of Charleston	SC	0.18	0.18	72.73	72.73	0.08	0.08
Wofford	SC	0.18	0.18	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Chattanooga	SC	0.18	0.18	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
Appalachian St.	SC	0.18	0.18	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.17	0.17	20.69	20.69	-0.10	-0.10
Marist	MAAC	0.17	0.17	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
George Mason	CAA	0.17	0.17	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
NC Greensboro	SC	0.15	0.15	24.14	24.14	-0.08	-0.08
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.14	0.14	76.47	76.47	0.08	0.08
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.14	0.14	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia Southern	SC	0.14	0.14	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.14	0.14	57.69	57.69	0.02	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.14	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.14	0.14	80.65	80.65	0.08	0.08
Iowa St.	B12	0.14	0.14	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.14	0.14	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.14	0.14	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Indiana St.	MVC	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.12	0.12	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Furman	SC	0.12	0.12	17.24	17.24	-0.08	-0.08
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.12	0.12	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.12	0.12	37.04	37.04	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Davidson	SC	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.11	0.11	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.11	0.11	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Rider	MAAC	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	22.58	22.58	-0.06	-0.06
Canisius	MAAC	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.11	0.11	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.11	0.11	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	14.29	14.29	-0.08	-0.08
Texas Tech	B12	0.11	0.11	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Elon	SC	0.09	0.09	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Ohio	MAC	0.09	0.09	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
George Washington	A10	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.09	0.09	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.09	0.09	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.09	0.09	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Mercer	ASun	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Robert Morris	NEC	0.09	0.09	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.08	0.08	93.75	93.75	0.07	0.07
Maryland	ACC	0.08	0.08	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Duke	ACC	0.08	0.08	84.38	84.38	0.06	0.06
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
La Salle	A10	0.08	0.08	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Boston University	AE	0.07	0.07	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
Army	Pat	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.06	0.06	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
Samford	SC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.06	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	70.37	70.37	0.02	0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Vermont	AE	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Boston College	ACC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.06	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Christian	B12	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	7.14	7.14	-0.05	-0.05
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Florida International	SB	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.02	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.02	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	28.00	28.00	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Albany	AE	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Butler	A10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Texas St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.03	0.03	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.03	0.03	35.71	35.71	-0.01	-0.01