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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Radford

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:154.0
Current RPI:154
Expected SOS:273
Current SOS:273
Current Record:18-11
Expected Record:18-11
Current Conf Record:12-7
Expected Conf Record:12-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-4
Current OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC RPI:108
Expected OOC SOS:220



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-11154.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Radford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Richmond (56.0)A10A64-46L0%0.0
11-17James Madison (148.0)CAAA74-71L0%0.0
11-20Howard (255.0)MEACH61-52W100%0.0
11-26TCU (131.0)B12A74-50L0%0.0
11-28North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACN57-65W100%0.0
11-29Texas A&M Corpus Chris (209.0)SlndA46-57W100%0.0
12-7Virginia Tech (228.0)ACCA66-68W100%0.0
12-13Georgetown (25.0)BEA76-49L0%0.0
12-19Siena (261.0)MAACH76-66W100%0.0
12-21Cornell (227.0)IvyH74-61W100%0.0
12-31UNC Asheville (249.0)BSthH60-62L0%0.0
1-3Longwood (316.0)BSthA90-79L0%0.0
1-8Gardner Webb (146.0)BSthA88-85L0%0.0
1-10Presbyterian (315.0)BSthH95-82W100%0.0
1-15Campbell (323.0)BSthA55-72W100%0.0
1-17Winthrop (210.0)BSthA77-85W100%0.0
1-22High Point (89.0)BSthH73-66W100%0.0
1-24Liberty (347.0)BSthH84-76W100%0.0
1-28Charleston Southern (164.0)BSthA77-84W100%0.0
1-31Winthrop (210.0)BSthH73-66W100%0.0
2-3High Point (89.0)BSthA64-67W100%0.0
2-6Charleston Southern (164.0)BSthH71-79L0%0.0
2-11Longwood (316.0)BSthH80-75W100%0.0
2-14Presbyterian (315.0)BSthA56-62W100%0.0
2-16Coastal Carolina (124.0)BSthH59-65L0%0.0
2-21UNC Asheville (249.0)BSthA68-75W100%0.0
2-26Liberty (347.0)BSthA80-69L0%0.0
2-28Gardner Webb (146.0)BSthH72-62W100%0.0
3-6Winthrop (210.0)BSthN66-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Radford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Radford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Radford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RadfordBSth26.4526.4565.1965.198.038.03
WinthropBSth6.126.1257.6957.690.940.94
LongwoodBSth4.634.6326.6726.67-2.16-2.16
Gardner WebbBSth4.474.4753.5753.570.320.32
High PointBSth4.464.4673.0873.082.062.06
LibertyBSth4.434.4311.5411.54-3.41-3.41
UNC AshevilleBSth4.434.4342.3142.31-0.68-0.68
PresbyterianBSth4.434.4323.0823.08-2.38-2.38
Charleston SouthernBSth4.364.3660.0060.000.870.87
Coastal CarolinaBSth2.922.9267.8667.861.041.04
CampbellBSth2.842.8425.0025.00-1.42-1.42
James MadisonCAA1.901.9058.0658.060.310.31
Virginia TechACC1.851.8534.3834.38-0.58-0.58
RichmondA101.841.8458.0658.060.300.30
HowardMEAC1.811.8146.4346.43-0.13-0.13
CornellIvy1.781.7842.8642.86-0.25-0.25
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.751.7524.1424.14-0.91-0.91
SienaMAAC1.751.7536.6736.67-0.47-0.47
GeorgetownBE1.751.7566.6766.670.580.58
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.751.7558.6258.620.300.30
TCUB121.721.7253.1253.120.110.11
Savannah St.MEAC0.270.2724.1424.14-0.14-0.14
ClemsonACC0.230.2351.6151.610.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.180.1826.6726.67-0.08-0.08
William & MaryCAA0.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.150.1534.4834.48-0.05-0.05
Ohio St.B100.150.1569.7069.700.060.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.150.1522.5822.58-0.08-0.08
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
FurmanSC0.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Miami OHMAC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.140.1427.2727.27-0.06-0.06
Wake ForestACC0.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.130.1381.2581.250.080.08
Central ArkansasSlnd0.120.126.906.90-0.11-0.11
PrincetonIvy0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
MississippiSEC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
AuburnSEC0.120.1241.1841.18-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.120.1243.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1260.6160.610.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
DelawareCAA0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.120.1257.1457.140.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.110.1177.4277.420.060.06
Seton HallBE0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.110.1130.7730.77-0.04-0.04
Miami FLACC0.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
George WashingtonA100.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
KansasB120.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
SamfordSC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
MarylandB100.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.090.0987.8887.880.070.07
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0930.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.096.906.90-0.08-0.08
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0975.8675.860.050.05
ColgatePat0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0972.4172.410.040.04
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.0947.0647.06-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Saint LouisA100.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
DrexelCAA0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
UMBCAE0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
BradleyMVC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0818.7518.75-0.05-0.05
ButlerBE0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
CreightonBE0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
XavierBE0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
SyracuseACC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
TowsonCAA0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
HofstraCAA0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
VCUA100.080.0874.2974.290.040.04
VirginiaACC0.080.0890.6290.620.060.06
West VirginiaB120.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Kansas St.B120.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
UABCUSA0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
BrownIvy0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0644.4444.44-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.060.0674.0774.070.030.03
PennIvy0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.060.0691.1891.180.050.05
DenverSum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0658.3358.330.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
PurdueB100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0686.6786.670.040.04
USC UpstateASun0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
DuquesneA100.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
IUPUISum0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.060.0652.9452.940.000.00
DePaulBE0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
MaristMAAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
RiderMAAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
St. John'sBE0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
VillanovaBE0.060.0694.1294.120.050.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
ElonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0590.9190.910.040.04
BaylorB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
OklahomaB120.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
NJITind0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
AlbanyAE0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
BucknellPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
PittsburghACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00