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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Radford

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:227.0
Current RPI:227
Expected SOS:210
Current SOS:210
Current Record:12-18
Expected Record:12-18
Current Conf Record:9-11
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-5
Current OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:179
Expected OOC SOS:48



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-18227.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Radford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Wake Forest (38.0)ACCA80-59L0%0.0
11-20Akron (58.0)MACA88-41L0%0.0
11-22Mercer (192.0)SCA58-47L0%0.0
11-25Stetson (328.0)ASunN66-80W100%0.0
11-26Georgia Southern (121.0)SBN65-64L0%0.0
11-30VMI (329.0)SCH74-67W100%0.0
12-4North Carolina (5.0)ACCA95-50L0%0.0
12-10Elon (161.0)CAAH68-56W100%0.0
12-17UNC Wilmington (27.0)CAAA100-64L0%0.0
12-20West Virginia (24.0)B12A84-57L0%0.0
12-29UNC Asheville (73.0)BSthH80-77W100%0.0
12-31Winthrop (70.0)BSthA80-82W100%0.0
1-4Gardner Webb (186.0)BSthH59-70L0%0.0
1-7Presbyterian (347.0)BSthA63-76W100%0.0
1-11Charleston Southern (295.0)BSthA70-64L0%0.0
1-14Liberty (172.0)BSthH64-71L0%0.0
1-19Longwood (343.0)BSthA60-72W100%0.0
1-21High Point (236.0)BSthH58-61L0%0.0
1-26Campbell (246.0)BSthH61-78L0%0.0
1-28UNC Asheville (73.0)BSthA80-69L0%0.0
2-1Winthrop (70.0)BSthH65-81L0%0.0
2-4Liberty (172.0)BSthA57-54L0%0.0
2-9Charleston Southern (295.0)BSthH79-67W100%0.0
2-11High Point (236.0)BSthA68-69W100%0.0
2-15Gardner Webb (186.0)BSthA70-59L0%0.0
2-18Longwood (343.0)BSthH79-72W100%0.0
2-23Presbyterian (347.0)BSthH59-57W100%0.0
2-25Campbell (246.0)BSthA61-58L0%0.0
3-2Liberty (172.0)BSthN52-56W100%0.0
3-3Campbell (246.0)BSthN50-66L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Radford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Radford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Radford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RadfordBSth26.5826.5841.7941.79-4.36-4.36
CampbellBSth6.246.2439.2939.29-1.34-1.34
LibertyBSth5.975.9753.8553.850.460.46
WinthropBSth4.594.5982.1482.142.952.95
Gardner WebbBSth4.514.5150.0050.000.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth4.504.5030.7730.77-1.73-1.73
UNC AshevilleBSth4.474.4771.4371.431.921.92
PresbyterianBSth4.474.4711.5411.54-3.44-3.44
LongwoodBSth4.424.4215.3815.38-3.06-3.06
High PointBSth4.414.4142.3142.31-0.68-0.68
VMISC2.002.0014.8114.81-1.41-1.41
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.801.8083.8783.871.221.22
MercerSC1.781.7841.3841.38-0.31-0.31
Georgia SouthernSB1.781.7851.7251.720.060.06
ElonCAA1.771.7755.1755.170.180.18
StetsonASun1.751.7528.5728.57-0.75-0.75
AkronMAC1.721.7275.0075.000.860.86
West VirginiaB121.701.7075.7675.760.870.87
North CarolinaACC1.691.6978.1278.120.950.95
Wake ForestACC1.691.6958.0658.060.270.27
FurmanSC0.430.4363.3363.330.110.11
UNC GreensboroSC0.400.4070.9770.970.170.17
USC UpstateASun0.310.3146.4346.43-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.310.3151.7251.720.010.01
The CitadelSC0.280.2830.0030.00-0.11-0.11
Western CarolinaSC0.250.2523.3323.33-0.14-0.14
Virginia TechACC0.230.2368.7568.750.080.08
SamfordSC0.230.2353.1253.120.010.01
ClemsonACC0.190.1953.1253.120.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.170.1778.1278.120.100.10
DrexelCAA0.170.1725.8125.81-0.08-0.08
James MadisonCAA0.170.1728.1228.12-0.07-0.07
Florida St.ACC0.170.1775.7675.760.090.09
College of CharlestonCAA0.160.1672.7372.730.070.07
DukeACC0.160.1677.1477.140.080.08
Oklahoma St.B120.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.1476.6776.670.080.08
VCUA100.140.1476.4776.470.080.08
ChattanoogaSC0.140.1458.6258.620.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.140.1444.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
PittsburghACC0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.120.1236.0036.00-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.1121.8821.88-0.06-0.06
Ball St.MAC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Texas TechB120.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
HofstraCAA0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
KansasB120.100.1087.5087.500.080.08
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1028.1228.12-0.05-0.05
VirginiaACC0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
AlabamaSEC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
George MasonA100.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
HoustonAmer0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
LamarSlnd0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.090.0978.5778.570.050.05
UMass LowellAE0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.090.0976.6776.670.050.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
TennesseeSEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.080.0817.2417.24-0.06-0.06
South AlabamaSB0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
ColgatePat0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Miami FLACC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
Iowa St.B120.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
TexasB120.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
MaineAE0.060.0619.3519.35-0.04-0.04
NavyPat0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0655.8855.880.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
NJITASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
RichmondA100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
NebraskaB100.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Saint LouisA100.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
SMUAmer0.060.0688.2488.240.040.04
Air ForceMWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Notre DameACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
OklahomaB120.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
IowaB100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
BucknellPat0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0396.9796.970.020.02
HawaiiBW0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
TempleAmer0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
UMKCWAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00