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Through games of Feb 10, 2016.


Radford

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:170.2
Current RPI:173
Expected SOS:177
Current SOS:175
Current Record:11-11
Expected Record:14-14
Current Conf Record:6-6
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-3
Current OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:91
Expected OOC SOS:42



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-11127.22.21%
16-12143.813.90%
15-13160.229.93%
14-14175.931.82%
13-15192.417.04%
12-16208.84.65%
11-17226.30.44%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Radford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Georgetown (70.3)BEA80-82W100%0.0
11-16VCU (37.4)A10A92-74L0%0.0
11-20Siena (100.5)MAACN62-76L0%0.0
11-21Prairie View A&M (343.7)SWACN56-64W100%0.0
11-24Penn St. (132.8)B10A74-86W100%0.0
11-30James Madison (84.4)CAAH68-70L0%0.0
12-3Liberty (262.3)BSthH56-52W100%0.0
12-6Coastal Carolina (156.3)BSthA63-58L0%0.0
12-9Virginia Tech (132.3)ACCH65-74L0%0.0
12-12Howard (297.1)MEACA91-92W100%0.0
12-19UNC Wilmington (62.0)CAAH69-67W100%0.0
12-22Chattanooga (41.8)SCA77-75L0%0.0
12-31High Point (197.5)BSthA77-60L0%0.0
1-6Charleston Southern (275.3)BSthH80-73W100%0.0
1-9Gardner Webb (210.9)BSthA83-61L0%0.0
1-14UNC Asheville (134.8)BSthH91-86W100%0.0
1-16Presbyterian (332.3)BSthA69-68L0%0.0
1-20Campbell (328.4)BSthH78-66W100%0.0
1-24Gardner Webb (210.9)BSthH69-59W100%0.0
1-27Longwood (319.3)BSthA81-90W100%0.0
1-30Winthrop (164.7)BSthA87-77L0%0.0
2-6Coastal Carolina (156.3)BSthH60-72L0%0.0
2-11UNC Asheville (134.8)BSthA0-025%-7.4
2-13Winthrop (164.7)BSthH0-055%1.4
2-18Liberty (262.3)BSthA0-057%1.8
2-20High Point (197.5)BSthH0-050%0.0
2-25Campbell (328.4)BSthA0-066%4.6
2-27Longwood (319.3)BSthH0-083%10.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Radford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Radford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Radford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RadfordBSth26.3526.4452.0453.011.081.59
LongwoodBSth2.974.5523.8126.24-1.56-2.16
UNC AshevilleBSth3.074.5568.1868.381.121.67
CampbellBSth3.134.5430.0030.71-1.25-1.75
WinthropBSth2.974.5463.1662.690.781.15
LibertyBSth3.094.5436.3637.65-0.84-1.12
Gardner WebbBSth5.204.5145.0047.34-0.52-0.24
High PointBSth3.014.5152.6356.000.160.54
Coastal CarolinaBSth5.194.5155.5656.630.580.60
Charleston SouthernBSth3.022.8625.0027.62-1.51-1.28
PresbyterianBSth3.082.8621.0523.95-1.78-1.49
UNC WilmingtonCAA2.421.9480.0076.231.451.02
GeorgetownBE2.381.8858.3354.600.400.17
VCUA102.371.8872.7373.191.080.87
James MadisonCAA2.331.8569.5768.440.910.68
Prairie View A&MSWAC2.321.819.5217.73-1.88-1.17
ChattanoogaSC2.271.7986.3686.161.651.29
HowardMEAC2.271.7938.1040.37-0.54-0.34
Penn St.B102.271.7952.1748.310.10-0.06
SienaMAAC2.271.7962.5062.910.570.46
Virginia TechACC2.271.7950.0047.160.00-0.10
FurmanSC0.360.2954.1754.080.030.02
William & MaryCAA0.260.2971.4369.840.110.12
DrexelCAA0.360.2913.6418.18-0.26-0.18
College of CharlestonCAA0.270.2763.6460.930.070.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.320.2628.5733.35-0.14-0.09
VMISC0.310.2615.0016.73-0.21-0.17
Western CarolinaSC0.160.2028.5731.30-0.07-0.07
East Tennessee St.SC0.210.1959.0959.370.040.04
ElonCAA0.200.1952.1750.420.010.00
RichmondA100.210.1956.5255.730.030.02
WoffordSC0.270.1743.4846.22-0.04-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.160.1759.0955.220.030.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.160.1719.0525.90-0.10-0.08
The CitadelSC0.210.1731.8230.05-0.08-0.07
North Carolina St.ACC0.160.1750.0049.050.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.190.1565.2264.230.060.04
George WashingtonA100.200.1575.0071.920.100.07
George MasonA100.150.1533.3333.70-0.05-0.05
WisconsinB100.240.1462.5056.960.060.02
HamptonMEAC0.110.1359.0961.310.020.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.110.1327.2731.06-0.05-0.05
TennesseeSEC0.150.1350.0048.130.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.150.1324.0024.17-0.08-0.07
Wake ForestACC0.160.1341.6739.91-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.150.1331.8232.69-0.05-0.04
DelawareCAA0.160.1321.7423.32-0.09-0.07
NortheasternCAA0.160.1345.8346.63-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.100.1365.2259.750.030.02
IowaB100.150.1282.6180.520.100.08
DukeACC0.190.1275.0071.800.090.05
HawaiiBW0.170.1084.2181.660.110.07
USC UpstateASun0.110.1022.7323.25-0.06-0.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.1038.1037.70-0.01-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1034.7840.89-0.03-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.1052.0050.230.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.100.1066.6765.220.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.1052.1754.140.000.01
UMBCAE0.100.1024.0026.33-0.05-0.05
TulaneAmer0.100.0936.0034.92-0.03-0.03
LamarSlnd0.090.0930.0029.28-0.04-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.0929.1733.74-0.04-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.0971.4369.430.040.04
Notre DameACC0.090.0970.8367.820.040.03
Florida St.ACC0.100.0969.5764.900.040.03
MarquetteBE0.100.0964.0057.920.030.01
RiderMAAC0.100.0940.0042.12-0.02-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.150.0945.4554.16-0.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.0924.0025.67-0.05-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.0915.0018.11-0.07-0.06
BryantNEC0.140.0925.0026.40-0.07-0.04
NebraskaB100.050.0952.0050.780.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0944.0045.35-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.140.0933.3334.01-0.05-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.140.0980.0081.160.080.05
NorthwesternB100.090.0964.0062.090.030.02
AuburnSEC0.110.0739.1335.44-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.110.0757.1455.290.020.01
AlabamaSEC0.060.0760.8755.970.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0740.0038.97-0.01-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0717.3920.66-0.04-0.04
Texas TechB120.060.0760.8755.300.010.01
ArmyPat0.100.0754.1754.290.010.01
LSUSEC0.100.0762.5059.050.030.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.0714.2924.86-0.07-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.100.0758.3359.960.020.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0626.0929.18-0.02-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.050.0660.8757.160.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0614.2920.65-0.04-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.050.0631.5831.74-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0645.8343.68-0.00-0.01
MaineAE0.050.0633.3333.13-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.100.0669.5769.040.040.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0643.4850.66-0.010.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0645.8342.32-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0672.2274.680.020.03
SamfordSC0.050.0641.6742.61-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0637.5043.37-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0675.0075.330.020.03
ClemsonACC0.100.0658.3358.370.020.01
East CarolinaAmer0.100.0641.6739.46-0.02-0.01
CornellIvy0.100.0642.1140.18-0.02-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0686.9682.150.040.04
IllinoisB100.050.0645.8344.11-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.090.0670.8368.000.040.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.0642.8646.35-0.01-0.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0640.9139.26-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.0629.1733.11-0.04-0.02
PurdueB100.100.0680.0077.960.060.03
RutgersB100.050.0621.7420.34-0.03-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0636.8442.89-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0640.0040.34-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0650.0054.190.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.090.0650.0051.190.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0620.0022.26-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.050.0661.9065.310.010.02
West VirginiaB120.090.0679.1778.060.050.03
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0629.1726.73-0.02-0.03
BucknellPat0.090.0652.1754.960.000.01
ButlerBE0.050.0670.8368.990.020.02
CreightonBE0.090.0664.0062.040.030.01
DavidsonA100.050.0661.9058.060.010.01
DuquesneA100.100.0660.8756.360.020.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0654.1754.110.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.090.0654.1751.980.010.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0660.8760.750.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.090.0642.8642.01-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.090.0621.7424.20-0.05-0.03
MarylandB100.090.0687.5083.690.070.04
Miami FLACC0.000.0682.6177.520.000.03
MichiganB100.090.0670.8366.720.040.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0680.0081.580.030.04
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0624.0024.57-0.05-0.03
PittsburghACC0.050.0672.7367.630.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0672.0069.150.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0636.3636.20-0.01-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0683.3381.320.060.04
Saint LouisA100.050.0634.7832.42-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.0640.9143.25-0.02-0.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0670.8368.100.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.090.0672.7370.400.040.02
St. John'sBE0.090.0625.0023.45-0.05-0.03
SyracuseACC0.090.0666.6762.560.030.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0687.5086.870.030.04
VirginiaACC0.090.0683.3378.470.060.03
XavierBE0.050.0687.5081.860.030.04
AkronMAC0.050.0382.6181.130.040.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0350.0053.000.000.00
StanfordP120.050.0350.0046.530.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0373.9176.740.030.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0356.5257.020.010.00
UMKCWAC0.050.0328.5732.73-0.02-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0333.3334.95-0.02-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0331.8236.14-0.02-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0325.0030.04-0.03-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0347.6249.35-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.039.0912.25-0.04-0.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0335.0038.52-0.02-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0321.7423.40-0.03-0.02
LipscombASun0.050.0325.0029.28-0.02-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0325.0033.20-0.03-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0365.2264.370.020.01
BaylorB120.050.0373.9168.480.020.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0340.9145.29-0.01-0.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0370.8367.980.020.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0371.4368.750.020.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0340.0045.48-0.01-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0339.1341.11-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.050.0345.8339.35-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0347.8350.01-0.000.00
Texas St.SB0.050.0336.8437.57-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0352.1755.090.000.00
AlbanyAE0.050.0376.0076.320.020.02
AmericanPat0.050.0329.1731.18-0.02-0.01
BrownIvy0.050.0331.5831.04-0.02-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0356.5257.000.010.00
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0372.0071.540.020.01
ColoradoP120.050.0369.5765.310.020.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0373.9172.580.020.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0340.0043.42-0.01-0.00
FordhamA100.050.0352.3850.750.000.00
IndianaB100.050.0379.1774.060.030.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0365.2260.580.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0319.0520.33-0.03-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0379.1776.070.030.02
Loyola MDPat0.050.0333.3335.16-0.02-0.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0325.0027.23-0.02-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0383.3378.400.030.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0365.2267.120.020.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0360.0055.540.010.00
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0356.5262.820.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0358.3357.220.000.00
UABCUSA0.050.0382.6179.390.030.02
VermontAE0.050.0352.0054.870.000.00