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Through games of Feb 21, 2017.


Radford

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:223.4
Current RPI:216
Expected SOS:207
Current SOS:165
Current Record:10-16
Expected Record:11-17
Current Conf Record:7-9
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-6
Current OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:181
Expected OOC SOS:41



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-16215.240.07%
11-17227.854.89%
10-18241.05.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Radford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Wake Forest (43.4)ACCA80-59L0%0.0
11-20Akron (56.0)MACA88-41L0%0.0
11-22Mercer (195.8)SCA58-47L0%0.0
11-25Stetson (331.0)ASunN66-80W100%0.0
11-26Georgia Southern (118.4)SBN65-64L0%0.0
11-30VMI (317.8)SCH74-67W100%0.0
12-4North Carolina (5.8)ACCA95-50L0%0.0
12-10Elon (134.4)CAAH68-56W100%0.0
12-17UNC Wilmington (37.2)CAAA100-64L0%0.0
12-20West Virginia (25.5)B12A84-57L0%0.0
12-29UNC Asheville (63.4)BSthH80-77W100%0.0
12-31Winthrop (82.1)BSthA80-82W100%0.0
1-4Gardner Webb (210.3)BSthH59-70L0%0.0
1-7Presbyterian (344.5)BSthA63-76W100%0.0
1-11Charleston Southern (300.8)BSthA70-64L0%0.0
1-14Liberty (162.4)BSthH64-71L0%0.0
1-19Longwood (340.6)BSthA60-72W100%0.0
1-21High Point (231.1)BSthH58-61L0%0.0
1-26Campbell (277.6)BSthH61-78L0%0.0
1-28UNC Asheville (63.4)BSthA80-69L0%0.0
2-1Winthrop (82.1)BSthH65-81L0%0.0
2-4Liberty (162.4)BSthA57-54L0%0.0
2-9Charleston Southern (300.8)BSthH79-67W100%0.0
2-11High Point (231.1)BSthA68-69W100%0.0
2-15Gardner Webb (210.3)BSthA70-59L0%0.0
2-18Longwood (340.6)BSthH79-72W100%0.0
2-23Presbyterian (344.5)BSthH0-091%14.6
2-25Campbell (277.6)BSthA0-044%-1.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Radford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Radford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Radford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RadfordBSth26.5026.4840.6842.68-4.94-3.88
CampbellBSth3.094.7137.5037.06-0.77-1.22
UNC AshevilleBSth4.814.6676.0075.632.502.39
Gardner WebbBSth4.804.6545.8345.81-0.40-0.39
PresbyterianBSth3.024.6512.5012.15-2.27-3.52
WinthropBSth4.824.6578.2679.532.732.74
Charleston SouthernBSth4.794.6427.2728.17-2.18-2.03
LibertyBSth4.764.6254.1754.360.400.40
High PointBSth4.794.6243.4844.88-0.63-0.47
LongwoodBSth4.754.6217.3917.48-3.10-3.00
VMISC2.262.1417.3918.38-1.48-1.35
UNC WilmingtonCAA2.031.9180.7780.851.251.18
Georgia SouthernSB2.071.9156.0053.770.250.14
MercerSC2.081.9140.0040.81-0.42-0.35
ElonCAA2.071.9157.6958.940.320.34
StetsonASun1.961.8530.7729.83-0.75-0.75
AkronMAC2.001.8576.9275.561.080.94
West VirginiaB121.961.8277.7877.031.090.98
North CarolinaACC1.961.8280.7778.721.211.04
Wake ForestACC1.961.8153.8553.360.150.12
FurmanSC0.490.4566.6765.370.160.14
UNC GreensboroSC0.370.4268.0066.670.130.14
USC UpstateASun0.300.3350.0049.750.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.270.2924.0024.47-0.14-0.15
Western CarolinaSC0.300.2819.2320.41-0.18-0.17
William & MaryCAA0.250.2552.0053.060.010.02
Virginia TechACC0.230.2370.3769.240.090.09
ClemsonACC0.260.2251.8553.690.010.02
GeorgiaSEC0.230.1953.8554.960.020.02
SamfordSC0.160.1953.8554.290.010.02
Florida St.ACC0.230.1978.5776.170.130.10
DrexelCAA0.220.1928.5729.06-0.09-0.08
James MadisonCAA0.220.1925.0026.38-0.11-0.09
East CarolinaAmer0.150.1646.4343.90-0.01-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.190.1676.9277.200.100.09
ChattanoogaSC0.150.1668.0068.630.050.06
Coastal CarolinaSB0.180.1546.1547.50-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.180.1571.4372.700.080.07
Oklahoma St.B120.140.1565.3863.380.040.04
PittsburghACC0.110.1555.5651.610.010.00
DukeACC0.140.1581.4878.450.090.08
North Carolina St.ACC0.180.1551.7249.540.01-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.160.1438.1038.33-0.04-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1344.0045.06-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.150.1341.6743.50-0.03-0.02
WoffordSC0.110.1342.3143.04-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.1373.0873.880.050.06
VCUA100.150.1381.4879.390.090.07
Texas TechB120.150.1260.7159.300.030.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.150.1237.5039.90-0.04-0.02
DelawareCAA0.110.1237.0435.10-0.03-0.04
HofstraCAA0.140.1242.8642.57-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.070.1250.0048.510.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.110.1264.2961.960.030.03
Kansas St.B120.140.1262.9661.620.040.03
KansasB120.140.1288.8987.370.110.09
VirginiaACC0.110.1266.6767.630.040.04
AlabamaSEC0.120.1061.5459.670.030.02
DaytonA100.120.1080.7779.400.070.06
George MasonA100.110.1062.9661.390.030.02
Ball St.MAC0.110.1062.9661.330.030.02
CreightonBE0.110.1080.7778.230.070.05
IllinoisB100.110.0955.5655.060.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.110.0934.4833.53-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.110.0956.0056.660.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.070.0953.8554.550.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.0940.7440.75-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.110.0916.0018.14-0.07-0.06
South AlabamaSB0.110.0944.0042.78-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.110.0953.5752.940.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.0914.2918.11-0.08-0.06
Western MichiganMAC0.110.0942.3143.65-0.02-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.110.0932.1430.40-0.04-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.040.0766.6766.150.010.02
ColgatePat0.040.0732.1433.17-0.01-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.080.0726.0925.96-0.04-0.03
MaineAE0.080.0717.2417.46-0.05-0.04
NavyPat0.080.0751.8551.700.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0764.0063.270.020.02
Saint LouisA100.080.0733.3331.01-0.03-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0742.3143.89-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0752.1753.600.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0751.8549.730.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.070.0669.2368.340.030.02
HowardMEAC0.070.0619.2321.46-0.05-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0650.0049.370.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.070.0647.8349.98-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.070.0655.5655.680.010.01
NebraskaB100.070.0644.0042.74-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.070.0629.6330.60-0.03-0.02
North FloridaASun0.070.0630.7732.11-0.03-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.070.0672.7374.030.030.03
SMUAmer0.070.0685.7185.550.050.05
UMass LowellAE0.070.0634.4834.58-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.080.0659.2660.030.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0620.0020.87-0.04-0.04
Air ForceMWC0.070.0632.0032.04-0.03-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0625.0027.77-0.04-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.040.0660.0059.390.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0656.0055.900.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0620.0021.77-0.04-0.03
Ohio St.B100.070.0653.5752.330.010.00
SienaMAAC0.070.0648.2848.54-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.070.0653.8552.830.010.00
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0641.6742.39-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0648.0047.39-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.070.0648.1549.49-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.070.0653.8552.620.010.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0640.7440.19-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.040.0650.0050.450.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.040.0655.5655.090.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.040.0630.7729.92-0.01-0.02
OhioMAC0.070.0668.0068.550.030.02
Georgia TechACC0.070.0655.5652.790.010.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0681.4879.740.000.03
Miami FLACC0.070.0670.3767.210.030.02
Notre DameACC0.070.0675.0074.360.040.03
SyracuseACC0.070.0657.1455.700.010.01
BaylorB120.030.0681.4878.550.020.03
Iowa St.B120.030.0666.6764.790.010.02
OklahomaB120.070.0633.3333.55-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.030.0661.5458.110.010.01
TexasB120.070.0635.7134.86-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.040.0320.0022.22-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.040.0360.0060.590.010.01
IowaB100.040.0353.5751.530.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.040.0314.8115.44-0.03-0.02
UCFAmer0.040.0362.9662.110.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0369.2368.600.000.01
AuburnSEC0.040.0360.7159.690.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.040.0325.0027.74-0.02-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.040.0329.6331.16-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.040.0342.8643.70-0.01-0.00
FloridaSEC0.040.0382.1480.660.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.040.0351.8552.210.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.040.0344.4443.17-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.040.0353.8554.910.000.00
Little RockSB0.000.0344.0043.42-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.040.0385.1985.420.030.02
MinnesotaB100.040.0374.0771.310.020.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.040.0357.1457.270.010.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.040.0333.3334.37-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.040.0326.9225.65-0.02-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.040.0361.5461.820.010.01
Texas St.SB0.040.0354.1753.200.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.040.0376.0076.540.020.02
AmericanPat0.040.0322.2222.15-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.040.0372.4173.570.020.01
Central MichiganMAC0.040.0353.8551.910.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.040.0325.9326.05-0.02-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.040.03100.0099.810.040.03
LSUSEC0.040.0333.3331.74-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.040.0353.8554.700.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.040.0330.7733.69-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.040.0371.4368.300.020.01
UC IrvineBW0.040.0353.8556.840.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.040.0340.0041.65-0.01-0.00
VillanovaBE0.040.0392.8691.340.030.02
XavierBE0.040.0366.6766.160.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.040.0332.1431.91-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.040.0348.0047.48-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.040.0382.1481.780.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.040.0340.7442.89-0.01-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.040.0382.7681.870.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0351.7253.710.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.040.0350.0049.410.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0362.9662.610.010.01
TempleAmer0.030.0350.0052.260.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.8552.810.000.00
TulaneAmer0.040.0318.5218.47-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.030.0348.0046.99-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.040.0381.4880.890.020.02