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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Radford

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:240.0
Current RPI:240
Expected SOS:348
Current SOS:348
Current Record:18-12
Expected Record:18-12
Current Conf Record:11-7
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-8
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:203
Expected OOC SOS:338



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-12240.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Radford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8George Washington (29.0)A10A76-54L0%0.0
11-11Chattanooga (243.0)SCH89-78W100%0.0
11-23Binghamton (325.0)AEA63-69W100%0.0
11-25Cornell (334.0)IvyA71-86W100%0.0
11-29Virginia Tech (246.0)ACCA81-56L0%0.0
12-7North Carolina A&T (336.0)MEACH72-52W100%0.0
12-16Santa Clara (210.0)WCCA75-62L0%0.0
12-18UNLV (108.0)MWCA81-62L0%0.0
12-22Sacred Heart (338.0)NECN78-94W100%0.0
12-23Florida Gulf Coast (146.0)ASunN64-63W100%0.0
1-2The Citadel (345.0)SCH76-59W100%0.0
1-4Hampton (204.0)MEACA87-60L0%0.0
1-8Liberty (311.0)BSthH72-63W100%0.0
1-10High Point (172.0)BSthA72-81W100%0.0
1-15VMI (211.0)BSthH88-101L0%0.0
1-18Longwood (337.0)BSthH93-76W100%0.0
1-22Campbell (316.0)BSthA65-63L0%0.0
1-25Coastal Carolina (196.0)BSthH61-69L0%0.0
1-29Winthrop (168.0)BSthA64-76W100%0.0
2-1Gardner Webb (241.0)BSthH72-73L0%0.0
2-5Charleston Southern (268.0)BSthA76-82W100%0.0
2-8Presbyterian (349.0)BSthA66-83W100%0.0
2-13UNC Asheville (201.0)BSthH102-92W100%0.0
2-15High Point (172.0)BSthH65-72L0%0.0
2-19Longwood (337.0)BSthA75-86W100%0.0
2-22VMI (211.0)BSthA88-76L0%0.0
2-26Campbell (316.0)BSthH82-78W100%0.0
3-1Liberty (311.0)BSthA83-87W100%0.0
3-5Presbyterian (349.0)BSthN78-73W100%0.0
3-7UNC Asheville (201.0)BSthN96-87L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Radford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Radford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Radford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RadfordBSth26.2626.2663.0163.016.846.84
VMIBSth4.144.1452.0052.000.170.17
LibertyBSth4.104.1029.6329.63-1.67-1.67
LongwoodBSth4.094.0915.3815.38-2.83-2.83
CampbellBSth4.074.0730.7730.77-1.56-1.56
High PointBSth4.064.0650.0050.000.000.00
PresbyterianBSth4.004.0014.2914.29-2.86-2.86
UNC AshevilleBSth4.004.0048.1548.15-0.15-0.15
WinthropBSth2.622.6258.6258.620.450.45
Gardner WebbBSth2.512.5148.2848.28-0.09-0.09
Coastal CarolinaBSth2.482.4858.6258.620.430.43
Charleston SouthernBSth2.442.4434.6234.62-0.75-0.75
The CitadelSC1.841.8414.2914.29-1.31-1.31
HamptonMEAC1.781.7858.6258.620.310.31
Virginia TechACC1.761.7626.6726.67-0.82-0.82
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.751.7526.6726.67-0.82-0.82
UNLVMWC1.721.7259.3859.380.320.32
Sacred HeartNEC1.721.7216.6716.67-1.15-1.15
Santa ClaraWCC1.721.7236.6736.67-0.46-0.46
BinghamtonAE1.701.7024.1424.14-0.88-0.88
ChattanoogaSC1.701.7053.5753.570.120.12
CornellIvy1.691.693.853.85-1.56-1.56
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.671.6764.5264.520.480.48
George WashingtonA101.671.6774.1974.190.810.81
WoffordSC0.320.3258.6258.620.050.05
Georgia SouthernSC0.320.3238.7138.71-0.07-0.07
Western CarolinaSC0.320.3251.6151.610.010.01
FurmanSC0.310.3125.9325.93-0.15-0.15
Appalachian St.SC0.260.2619.2319.23-0.16-0.16
UNC GreensboroSC0.260.2637.9337.93-0.06-0.06
William & MaryCAA0.210.2161.2961.290.050.05
East CarolinaCUSA0.210.2144.8344.83-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.210.2123.3323.33-0.11-0.11
BrownIvy0.180.1851.8551.850.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.170.1770.9770.970.070.07
Wake ForestACC0.170.1751.5251.520.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.170.1783.8783.870.110.11
Delaware St.MEAC0.170.1725.0025.00-0.08-0.08
SamfordSC0.170.1733.3333.33-0.06-0.06
HowardMEAC0.170.1719.3519.35-0.10-0.10
USC UpstateASun0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
DelawareCAA0.150.1573.5373.530.070.07
SyracuseACC0.150.1584.3884.380.100.10
Morgan St.MEAC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.140.1482.3582.350.090.09
South Carolina St.MEAC0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
HartfordAE0.140.1451.5251.520.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
VCUA100.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
DartmouthIvy0.120.1238.4638.46-0.03-0.03
ElonSC0.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.120.1270.3770.370.050.05
OhioMAC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
ClemsonACC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.1161.7661.760.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.1161.7661.760.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
Rhode IslandA100.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.110.1117.8617.86-0.07-0.07
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.1117.8617.86-0.07-0.07
Northern KentuckyASun0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Miami FLACC0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
YaleIvy0.090.0951.8551.850.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DavidsonSC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Notre DameACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
New HampshireAE0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
West VirginiaB120.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
UMBCAE0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
BryantNEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
PacificWCC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
MarylandACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
NevadaMWC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
MercerASun0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
StetsonASun0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
HarvardIvy0.060.0686.2186.210.040.04
PennIvy0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
GeorgetownBE0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Penn St.B100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0641.1841.18-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0693.1093.100.050.05
TCUB120.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
ColgatePat0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
IUPUISum0.060.0610.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
NavyPat0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
AlbanyAE0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
NebraskaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
North FloridaASun0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
SienaMAAC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
UCLAP120.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
LafayettePat0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
NJITind0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
PittsburghACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
RutgersAmer0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Arizona St.P120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
IllinoisB100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.033.573.57-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01