Radford

Conference:	BSth
Expected RPI:	128.0
Current RPI:	128
Expected SOS:	249
Current SOS:	249
Current Record:	20-12
Expected Record:	20-12
Current Conf Record:	15-6
Expected Conf Record:	15-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	16-5
Current OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC RPI:	119
Expected OOC SOS:	135

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
20-12	128.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Radford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Ohio St. (20.0)	B10	A	82-72	L	0%
11-15	East Carolina (274.0)	Amer	A	66-73	W	100%
11-22	Elon (205.0)	CAA	A	77-74	L	0%
11-25	James Madison (272.0)	CAA	H	69-68	W	100%
11-28	Vanderbilt (132.0)	SEC	A	74-62	L	0%
12-2	VMI (313.0)	SC	A	50-63	W	100%
12-6	Virginia Tech (61.0)	ACC	A	95-68	L	0%
12-17	Nevada (17.0)	MWC	A	77-62	L	0%
12-19	San Francisco (139.0)	WCC	A	52-41	L	0%
12-22	North Carolina A&T (238.0)	MEAC	N	66-60	W	100%
12-23	UC Davis (102.0)	BW	N	62-72	W	100%
12-30	Presbyterian (319.0)	BSth	A	62-78	W	100%
1-3	Winthrop (173.0)	BSth	H	85-79	W	100%
1-6	UNC Asheville (130.0)	BSth	H	90-70	W	100%
1-9	Charleston Southern (261.0)	BSth	A	61-64	W	100%
1-12	Gardner Webb (244.0)	BSth	A	59-54	L	0%
1-15	Liberty (211.0)	BSth	H	59-57	W	100%
1-18	Longwood (337.0)	BSth	H	70-63	W	100%
1-21	Campbell (267.0)	BSth	A	59-56	L	0%
1-24	High Point (273.0)	BSth	A	76-78	W	100%
1-27	Charleston Southern (261.0)	BSth	H	81-84	L	0%
2-1	Gardner Webb (244.0)	BSth	H	70-66	W	100%
2-3	Winthrop (173.0)	BSth	A	75-57	L	0%
2-7	High Point (273.0)	BSth	H	60-61	L	0%
2-10	UNC Asheville (130.0)	BSth	A	66-64	L	0%
2-15	Campbell (267.0)	BSth	H	72-53	W	100%
2-18	Presbyterian (319.0)	BSth	H	74-68	W	100%
2-22	Liberty (211.0)	BSth	A	50-63	W	100%
2-24	Longwood (337.0)	BSth	A	47-70	W	100%
3-1	Longwood (337.0)	BSth	N	59-53	W	100%
3-2	Winthrop (173.0)	BSth	N	61-52	W	100%
3-4	Liberty (211.0)	BSth	H	55-52	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Radford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Radford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Radford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Radford	BSth	26.64	26.64	68.57	68.57	9.90	9.90
Liberty	BSth	5.77	5.77	60.71	60.71	1.24	1.24
Longwood	BSth	5.75	5.75	14.81	14.81	-4.04	-4.04
Winthrop	BSth	5.70	5.70	60.00	60.00	1.14	1.14
UNC Asheville	BSth	4.31	4.31	62.07	62.07	1.04	1.04
Presbyterian	BSth	4.28	4.28	29.63	29.63	-1.74	-1.74
Charleston Southern	BSth	4.28	4.28	42.31	42.31	-0.66	-0.66
Campbell	BSth	4.25	4.25	46.15	46.15	-0.33	-0.33
Gardner Webb	BSth	4.23	4.23	37.04	37.04	-1.10	-1.10
High Point	BSth	4.22	4.22	40.00	40.00	-0.84	-0.84
VMI	SC	1.75	1.75	25.93	25.93	-0.84	-0.84
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	1.67	1.67	58.06	58.06	0.27	0.27
East Carolina	Amer	1.64	1.64	34.48	34.48	-0.51	-0.51
Virginia Tech	ACC	1.64	1.64	64.52	64.52	0.48	0.48
James Madison	CAA	1.61	1.61	30.00	30.00	-0.65	-0.65
Nevada	MWC	1.61	1.61	78.79	78.79	0.93	0.93
Elon	CAA	1.61	1.61	37.93	37.93	-0.39	-0.39
Vanderbilt	SEC	1.61	1.61	35.48	35.48	-0.47	-0.47
San Francisco	WCC	1.61	1.61	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
UC Davis	BW	1.61	1.61	68.97	68.97	0.61	0.61
Ohio St.	B10	1.56	1.56	74.19	74.19	0.76	0.76
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.34	0.34	77.42	77.42	0.19	0.19
The Citadel	SC	0.30	0.30	27.59	27.59	-0.13	-0.13
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.22	0.22	26.67	26.67	-0.10	-0.10
Furman	SC	0.22	0.22	67.74	67.74	0.08	0.08
USC Upstate	ASun	0.22	0.22	10.71	10.71	-0.17	-0.17
Delaware	CAA	0.21	0.21	38.71	38.71	-0.05	-0.05
William & Mary	CAA	0.18	0.18	58.62	58.62	0.03	0.03
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.18	0.18	30.00	30.00	-0.07	-0.07
Western Carolina	SC	0.16	0.16	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Wofford	SC	0.16	0.16	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Charlotte	CUSA	0.16	0.16	17.86	17.86	-0.10	-0.10
Auburn	SEC	0.16	0.16	78.12	78.12	0.09	0.09
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Tennessee	SEC	0.16	0.16	75.76	75.76	0.08	0.08
College of Charleston	CAA	0.16	0.16	77.42	77.42	0.09	0.09
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.16	0.16	25.81	25.81	-0.08	-0.08
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.15	0.15	16.67	16.67	-0.10	-0.10
Pacific	WCC	0.15	0.15	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.13	0.13	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Mercer	SC	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.13	0.13	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Penn St.	B10	0.13	0.13	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Florida	SEC	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.13	0.13	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Houston	Amer	0.13	0.13	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Arizona St.	P12	0.13	0.13	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Northeastern	CAA	0.13	0.13	68.75	68.75	0.05	0.05
Howard	MEAC	0.12	0.12	25.81	25.81	-0.06	-0.06
Clemson	ACC	0.12	0.12	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
VCU	A10	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Davidson	A10	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
UCF	Amer	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.10	0.10	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Illinois	B10	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.10	0.10	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.10	0.10	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Towson	CAA	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.10	0.10	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	6.67	6.67	-0.09	-0.09
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.10	0.10	84.85	84.85	0.07	0.07
Gonzaga	WCC	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.07	0.07
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Florida St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Saint Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	B10	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.08	0.08	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.08	0.08	26.92	26.92	-0.04	-0.04
Cornell	Ivy	0.08	0.08	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
South Florida	Amer	0.08	0.08	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
UC Riverside	BW	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Duquesne	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.08	0.08	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	SB	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.08	0.08	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.08	0.08	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Rutgers	B10	0.07	0.07	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Iowa	B10	0.07	0.07	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.07	0.07	93.94	93.94	0.06	0.06
Santa Clara	WCC	0.07	0.07	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
UNLV	MWC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.06	0.06	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Samford	SC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Chicago St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	3.33	3.33	-0.05	-0.05
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Connecticut	Amer	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
SMU	Amer	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Tulane	Amer	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	15.62	15.62	-0.03	-0.03
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	MAAC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
BYU	WCC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
LSU	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Notre Dame	ACC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.03	-0.03
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
TCU	B12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
Fresno St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
San Jose St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	10.34	10.34	-0.04	-0.04
Utah St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Boston University	Pat	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Temple	Amer	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Utah Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
George Mason	A10	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.02	0.02	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.02	0.02	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Butler	BE	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.02	0.02	24.24	24.24	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.02	0.02	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.02	0.02	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri	SEC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	22.22	22.22	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.02	0.02	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	ACC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.02	0.02	44.12	44.12	-0.00	-0.00
USC	P12	0.02	0.02	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho	BSky	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.02	0.02	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01