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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Radford

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:263.5
Current RPI:255
Expected SOS:213
Current SOS:230
Current Record:2-5
Expected Record:10-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-6
Current OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC RPI:234
Expected OOC SOS:47



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-10114.00.01%
17-1190.00.01%
16-12135.40.17%
15-13156.00.61%
14-14176.31.92%
13-15197.54.65%
12-16218.69.30%
11-17240.015.88%
10-18259.619.25%
9-19278.219.35%
8-20294.314.76%
7-21307.28.60%
6-22318.13.75%
5-23327.61.42%
4-24333.70.30%
3-25338.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Radford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Wake Forest (54.7)ACCA80-59L0%0.0
11-20Akron (81.5)MACA88-41L0%0.0
11-22Mercer (184.8)SCA58-47L0%0.0
11-25Stetson (319.1)ASunN66-80W100%0.0
11-26Georgia Southern (189.8)SBN65-64L0%0.0
11-30VMI (322.5)SCH74-67W100%0.0
12-4North Carolina (5.3)ACCA95-50L0%0.0
12-10Elon (126.5)CAAH0-024%-8.3
12-17UNC Wilmington (47.3)CAAA0-04%-21.1
12-20West Virginia (11.6)B12A0-00%-37.5
12-29UNC Asheville (97.3)BSthH0-026%-7.8
12-31Winthrop (111.3)BSthA0-010%-15.2
1-4Gardner Webb (192.4)BSthH0-038%-3.5
1-7Presbyterian (322.6)BSthA0-054%1.1
1-11Charleston Southern (265.9)BSthA0-035%-4.7
1-14Liberty (211.7)BSthH0-044%-1.8
1-19Longwood (332.7)BSthA0-056%1.7
1-21High Point (239.4)BSthH0-050%-0.1
1-26Campbell (295.2)BSthH0-063%3.9
1-28UNC Asheville (97.3)BSthA0-012%-14.1
2-1Winthrop (111.3)BSthH0-023%-8.9
2-4Liberty (211.7)BSthA0-025%-8.1
2-9Charleston Southern (265.9)BSthH0-055%1.6
2-11High Point (239.4)BSthA0-030%-6.4
2-15Gardner Webb (192.4)BSthA0-021%-9.8
2-18Longwood (332.7)BSthH0-075%8.0
2-23Presbyterian (322.6)BSthH0-073%7.4
2-25Campbell (295.2)BSthA0-042%-2.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Radford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Radford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Radford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RadfordBSth28.5326.4832.0035.07-10.27-7.90
CampbellBSth0.604.7142.8638.54-0.09-1.08
UNC AshevilleBSth0.004.6557.1466.230.001.51
Gardner WebbBSth0.604.6533.3350.70-0.200.07
High PointBSth0.004.6542.8645.41-0.00-0.43
PresbyterianBSth0.604.6433.3326.30-0.20-2.20
WinthropBSth0.004.6450.0070.090.001.87
Charleston SouthernBSth0.004.6420.0036.22-0.00-1.28
LibertyBSth0.004.6233.3346.73-0.00-0.30
LongwoodBSth0.004.6120.0020.75-0.00-2.70
VMISC7.142.140.0017.42-7.14-1.39
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.001.9883.3376.440.001.05
Georgia SouthernSB8.161.9133.3341.59-2.72-0.32
MercerSC8.161.9133.3345.89-2.72-0.16
ElonCAA0.001.9171.4358.900.000.34
StetsonASun7.141.8533.3329.28-2.38-0.77
AkronMAC8.161.8566.6767.872.720.66
West VirginiaB120.001.8285.7183.110.001.20
North CarolinaACC7.141.8285.7181.365.101.14
Wake ForestACC7.141.8171.4352.923.060.11
FurmanSC0.000.4533.3356.24-0.000.06
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.4171.4356.260.000.05
USC UpstateASun0.000.3344.4441.30-0.00-0.06
The CitadelSC0.510.2950.0030.350.00-0.11
Western CarolinaSC0.000.2828.5723.12-0.00-0.15
William & MaryCAA0.000.2533.3346.01-0.00-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.600.2285.7162.990.430.06
ClemsonACC0.000.2171.4354.860.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1957.1452.030.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.1962.5056.520.000.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.1987.5065.250.000.06
James MadisonCAA0.000.1912.5030.68-0.00-0.07
DrexelCAA0.000.1850.0040.600.00-0.03
East CarolinaAmer1.020.1677.7849.900.57-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1683.3379.850.000.09
ChattanoogaSC0.450.1671.4373.040.190.07
Coastal CarolinaSB0.450.1525.0038.83-0.22-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.450.1571.4354.310.190.01
PittsburghACC0.000.1575.0049.180.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.450.1566.6761.550.150.03
DukeACC0.000.1588.8978.400.000.08
North Carolina St.ACC0.510.1575.0051.040.260.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.1440.0054.54-0.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.1314.2942.67-0.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1314.2938.26-0.00-0.03
WoffordSC0.000.130.0034.81-0.00-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.1350.0056.740.000.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.510.1357.1471.940.070.06
VCUA100.000.1375.0073.060.000.06
Texas TechB120.000.1287.5062.040.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.1287.5059.310.000.02
DelawareCAA0.000.1250.0041.990.00-0.02
HofstraCAA0.000.1262.5043.220.00-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.1250.0044.400.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.1242.8653.19-0.000.01
KansasB120.000.1287.5075.860.000.06
VirginiaACC0.000.1287.5078.510.000.07
AlabamaSEC0.000.1057.1451.790.000.00
DaytonA100.000.1071.4373.490.000.05
Ball St.MAC0.000.1042.8647.11-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.510.10100.0076.630.510.05
George MasonA100.510.1062.5046.900.13-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0962.5050.710.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0925.0034.40-0.00-0.03
New HampshireAE0.000.0957.1458.840.000.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0940.0041.12-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0925.0030.23-0.00-0.04
FIUCUSA0.510.0914.2936.02-0.36-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.0971.4357.970.000.01
IndianaB100.450.0987.5074.490.330.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.090.0025.23-0.00-0.05
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0916.6736.03-0.00-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0957.1429.790.00-0.04
Boise St.MWC0.000.0742.8656.04-0.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.0712.5029.71-0.00-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.000.070.0020.55-0.00-0.04
MaineAE0.000.0714.2924.15-0.00-0.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0728.5723.78-0.00-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0733.3339.94-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0725.0055.33-0.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0685.7178.280.000.04
HowardMEAC0.000.0616.6744.34-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0657.1459.280.000.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0650.0041.540.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.000.0612.5033.04-0.00-0.02
NavyPat0.000.0625.0037.38-0.00-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.0657.1444.890.00-0.01
NJITASun0.000.0650.0049.780.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0657.1458.940.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0612.5034.79-0.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0625.0063.27-0.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.0666.6766.860.000.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0622.2238.49-0.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0650.0046.240.00-0.00
RichmondA101.040.0650.0048.210.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC1.020.0657.1448.500.15-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC1.020.060.0022.58-1.02-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0616.6729.80-0.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0628.5741.52-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0633.3352.21-0.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0650.0060.620.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0657.1454.360.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0671.4363.930.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0616.6729.81-0.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0642.8630.92-0.00-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0642.8645.56-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0683.3371.480.000.03
Ohio St.B100.000.0687.5068.610.000.02
SienaMAAC0.000.0637.5052.01-0.000.00
TroySB0.000.0642.8636.19-0.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0671.4351.460.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0637.5047.91-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.510.0671.4363.170.220.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0657.1436.010.00-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.0687.5075.590.000.03
Miami FLACC0.000.0675.0066.100.000.02
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0077.380.000.03
SyracuseACC0.000.0671.4366.700.000.02
BaylorB120.000.06100.0076.590.000.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0671.4368.070.000.02
OklahomaB120.000.0671.4348.350.00-0.00
TCUB120.000.06100.0061.680.000.01
TexasB120.000.0657.1438.680.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0314.2932.19-0.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0371.4370.210.000.01
IowaB100.000.0337.5037.74-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0350.0041.990.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.510.0385.7176.240.360.02
AmericanPat0.510.0314.2931.35-0.36-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0375.0066.370.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0385.7157.450.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0342.8641.51-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0371.4356.250.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0017.13-0.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.510.0387.5075.240.380.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0355.5647.890.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0091.920.000.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0342.8645.44-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.000.0366.6755.540.000.00
Little RockSB0.000.0366.6761.330.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0371.4354.860.000.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0387.5068.020.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0357.1450.420.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.510.030.0018.64-0.51-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0357.1433.230.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0350.0043.390.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0350.0054.070.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0362.5067.390.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.510.0342.8638.17-0.07-0.01
BucknellPat0.450.0366.6766.340.150.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0050.840.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0342.8644.71-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.000.0371.4349.170.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0387.5076.230.000.02
NorthwesternB100.450.0375.0066.170.220.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0371.4370.390.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.450.0320.0035.47-0.27-0.01
VillanovaBE0.450.03100.0084.840.450.02
XavierBE0.000.0387.5070.890.000.01
HawaiiBW0.450.0350.0050.450.000.00
KentuckySEC0.000.0387.5082.800.000.02
Long Beach St.BW0.450.030.0038.27-0.45-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0375.0070.620.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0311.1148.19-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0333.3352.84-0.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0357.1453.990.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.0375.0064.920.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.180.000.01
TulaneAmer0.450.0312.5023.93-0.33-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0362.5052.330.000.00
WisconsinB100.450.0377.7876.040.250.01