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Through games of Feb 8, 2016.


Illinois

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:156.8
Current RPI:140
Expected SOS:71
Current SOS:56
Current Record:11-13
Expected Record:14-17
Current Conf Record:3-8
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:130
Expected OOC SOS:90



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1399.00.02%
17-14110.00.50%
16-15123.03.58%
15-16138.316.02%
14-17152.735.57%
13-18166.532.59%
12-19179.510.81%
11-20191.90.90%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13North Florida (137.0)ASunH81-93L0%0.0
11-15North Dakota St. (114.4)SumH80-74W100%0.0
11-18Providence (45.4)BEA60-59L0%0.0
11-21Chattanooga (40.2)SCH77-81L0%0.0
11-23Chicago St. (343.8)WACH82-79W100%0.0
11-27UAB (88.2)CUSAN72-58W100%0.0
11-28Iowa St. (17.1)B12N73-84L0%0.0
12-2Notre Dame (34.4)ACCH79-84L0%0.0
12-5Western Carolina (240.5)SCH80-68W100%0.0
12-9Yale (55.5)IvyH69-65W100%0.0
12-12Illinois Chicago (347.1)HorzN83-79W100%0.0
12-19South Dakota (191.6)SumH91-79W100%0.0
12-23Missouri (218.0)SECN63-68W100%0.0
12-30Michigan (47.8)B10H68-78L0%0.0
1-3Ohio St. (96.3)B10A75-73L0%0.0
1-7Michigan St. (17.7)B10A79-54L0%0.0
1-10Purdue (17.8)B10H84-70W100%0.0
1-16Nebraska (145.2)B10H67-78L0%0.0
1-19Indiana (39.1)B10A103-69L0%0.0
1-23Minnesota (244.7)B10A71-76W100%0.0
1-28Ohio St. (96.3)B10H63-68L0%0.0
1-31Wisconsin (63.5)B10H55-63L0%0.0
2-3Rutgers (281.2)B10A101-110W100%0.0
2-7Iowa (7.4)B10H65-77L0%0.0
2-13Northwestern (112.5)B10A0-022%-8.2
2-16Rutgers (281.2)B10H0-090%13.8
2-21Wisconsin (63.5)B10A0-018%-10.1
2-25Indiana (39.1)B10H0-018%-9.8
2-28Minnesota (244.7)B10H0-072%6.4
3-3Maryland (6.0)B10A0-06%-16.9
3-6Penn St. (130.7)B10A0-041%-2.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IllinoisB1026.1826.1039.1739.21-5.67-5.63
MinnesotaB102.523.8627.2728.80-1.15-1.64
IndianaB102.533.8378.2672.871.431.75
RutgersB102.523.8022.7321.44-1.38-2.17
Ohio St.B104.393.7854.5550.960.400.07
WisconsinB102.393.7859.0953.400.430.26
NorthwesternB100.492.3066.6762.980.160.60
Michigan St.B102.442.3082.6182.461.591.49
IowaB102.482.2781.8279.921.581.36
NebraskaB102.442.2552.1750.250.110.01
MarylandB100.482.2487.5083.350.361.50
MichiganB102.392.2268.1865.080.870.67
PurdueB102.492.2282.6179.061.621.29
Penn St.B100.442.1950.0046.310.00-0.16
Iowa St.B122.271.7372.7369.051.030.66
South DakotaSum2.181.7243.4842.71-0.28-0.25
Chicago St.WAC2.171.724.558.02-1.98-1.44
ChattanoogaSC2.181.7086.3686.191.581.23
North Dakota St.Sum2.171.6966.6764.450.720.49
Notre DameACC2.171.6969.5766.620.850.56
Western CarolinaSC2.131.6730.0032.42-0.85-0.59
MissouriSEC2.081.6436.3631.39-0.57-0.61
ProvidenceBE2.131.6473.9169.981.020.65
Illinois ChicagoHorz2.081.615.267.51-1.86-1.37
North FloridaASun2.081.6163.6465.940.570.51
UABCUSA2.081.6186.3682.141.521.04
YaleIvy2.081.6177.7877.551.160.89
Western IllinoisSum0.280.2527.7829.14-0.12-0.10
MilwaukeeHorz0.230.2259.0959.640.040.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.220.1956.5256.320.030.02
CreightonBE0.180.1862.5059.800.040.04
MercerSC0.230.1769.5769.090.090.06
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.1777.2776.870.070.09
UMKCWAC0.180.1728.5732.70-0.08-0.06
IPFWSum0.220.1770.8368.570.090.06
Northern IllinoisMAC0.270.1663.1658.810.070.03
VMISC0.190.1615.0016.70-0.13-0.11
DePaulBE0.140.1634.7834.54-0.04-0.05
MarquetteBE0.180.1662.5056.200.040.02
Wake ForestACC0.130.1643.4840.57-0.02-0.03
St. John'sBE0.130.1625.0023.34-0.07-0.08
SamfordSC0.140.1441.6742.60-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.190.1443.4846.23-0.02-0.01
Green BayHorz0.140.1454.5556.000.010.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.180.1430.4332.36-0.07-0.05
IUPUISum0.130.1440.0039.79-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.130.1421.7423.39-0.08-0.07
ClemsonACC0.130.1358.3358.410.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.170.1330.4326.54-0.07-0.06
GeorgetownBE0.090.1356.0052.770.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.090.1259.0959.350.020.02
FurmanSC0.140.1254.1754.070.010.01
The CitadelSC0.140.1231.8230.06-0.05-0.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.140.1227.2731.06-0.07-0.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.140.1214.2915.45-0.10-0.08
OaklandHorz0.140.1168.0067.980.050.04
NJITASun0.140.1154.1755.240.010.01
DenverSum0.090.1154.1751.800.010.00
Oral RobertsSum0.180.1139.1341.12-0.04-0.02
DukeACC0.140.1175.0071.700.070.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.1142.8646.36-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.090.1134.7835.64-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.130.1160.8758.370.030.02
ConnecticutAmer0.130.1173.9172.490.060.05
Oklahoma St.B120.090.1145.8342.26-0.01-0.02
Seton HallBE0.090.1173.9169.840.040.04
TempleAmer0.090.1163.6459.840.020.02
Texas TechB120.090.1159.0953.170.020.01
Virginia TechACC0.130.1154.1749.230.01-0.00
XavierBE0.130.1091.3084.340.110.07
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.180.1024.0025.69-0.09-0.05
OklahomaB120.140.1086.9682.610.100.07
ValparaisoHorz0.150.0981.8283.040.100.06
Wright St.Horz0.100.0956.5257.000.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.0921.7422.73-0.06-0.05
Northern KentuckyHorz0.100.0933.3335.08-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.050.0972.2274.700.020.04
LipscombASun0.090.0925.0029.27-0.05-0.04
BrownIvy0.150.0931.5831.08-0.06-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0966.6765.220.020.03
HarvardIvy0.040.0935.0038.49-0.01-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.130.0966.6767.690.040.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.130.0947.6252.07-0.010.00
HartfordAE0.140.0825.0026.76-0.07-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.140.0828.5733.37-0.06-0.03
DaytonA100.140.0886.3682.380.100.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.140.0825.0024.35-0.07-0.04
SeattleWAC0.140.0847.6245.00-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.090.0822.7323.24-0.05-0.05
Illinois St.MVC0.100.0854.1750.940.010.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.0813.0413.55-0.07-0.06
BryantNEC0.140.0825.0026.39-0.07-0.04
FIUCUSA0.090.0840.9145.29-0.02-0.01
PittsburghACC0.140.0876.1968.210.070.03
LouisvilleACC0.090.0879.1776.080.050.04
ArkansasSEC0.090.0852.1755.940.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0837.5040.54-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.140.0870.8370.840.060.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0836.8441.40-0.02-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.140.0861.9056.690.030.01
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0850.0052.350.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.090.0847.3749.98-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0886.3679.140.070.05
VCUA100.090.0873.9173.910.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.050.0850.0051.180.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.090.0879.1780.720.050.05
UNLVMWC0.090.0850.0055.190.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0822.7327.19-0.05-0.04
George WashingtonA100.050.0878.2674.430.030.04
HowardMEAC0.090.0836.3638.93-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.090.0881.8276.750.060.04
North CarolinaACC0.040.0882.6178.660.030.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0850.0049.090.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0871.4368.720.040.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0829.1733.74-0.04-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0840.0045.50-0.02-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.090.0856.5256.630.010.01
SyracuseACC0.090.0866.6762.580.030.02
TexasB120.090.0866.6762.220.030.02
VirginiaACC0.130.0882.6178.070.080.04
ButlerBE0.130.0869.5767.170.050.03
FloridaSEC0.090.0865.2266.070.030.03
KansasB120.090.0881.8277.600.060.04
KentuckySEC0.130.0873.9171.560.060.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.089.0917.12-0.07-0.05
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0878.2678.050.050.04
VillanovaBE0.130.0886.9686.360.100.06
DartmouthIvy0.000.0631.5831.76-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0647.6245.85-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.050.0638.8937.62-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.050.0642.1140.18-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0682.6181.140.030.04
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0650.0049.850.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0665.2268.620.010.02
StetsonASun0.090.0623.8127.69-0.05-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0633.3334.94-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.100.0621.7423.66-0.06-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.0643.4842.62-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.100.0690.9186.160.080.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.090.0652.3854.010.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0654.1754.120.000.00
LehighPat0.100.0636.3639.78-0.03-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0634.7837.06-0.02-0.01
VermontAE0.100.0652.0054.870.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0631.5831.99-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0668.1866.690.030.02
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0542.8639.19-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.050.0565.2260.250.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0529.1733.14-0.04-0.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0550.0051.290.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0521.0527.79-0.03-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0534.7840.93-0.03-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0550.0051.900.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0569.5764.850.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.040.0552.1751.630.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0571.4369.420.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0539.1337.73-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.040.0550.0049.450.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0545.4546.27-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.090.0559.0953.040.020.00
AuburnSEC0.090.0540.9136.60-0.02-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0514.2920.64-0.06-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.059.0912.25-0.07-0.04
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0556.5262.790.010.01
RiderMAAC0.040.0540.0042.12-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.090.0545.4538.46-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.040.0540.0040.30-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.090.0579.1778.350.050.03
BaylorB120.050.0572.7366.460.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0569.5765.360.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.040.0540.9143.53-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.0515.0018.08-0.06-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.040.0517.6529.21-0.03-0.02
MemphisAmer0.090.0560.8760.780.020.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0565.2259.020.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.040.0520.0022.32-0.03-0.03
SienaMAAC0.050.0564.0064.140.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0552.1754.150.000.00
TCUB120.050.0545.8339.31-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.040.0547.8346.89-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0576.1972.290.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0566.6770.550.030.02
VanderbiltSEC0.040.0556.5260.010.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0582.6179.560.030.03
AlbanyAE0.050.0376.0076.300.030.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0354.5550.100.000.00
UCFAmer0.050.0352.3845.690.00-0.00
USCP120.050.0378.2673.050.030.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0363.6459.220.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0363.6460.930.010.01
DavidsonA100.050.0360.0057.950.010.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0325.0025.09-0.02-0.01
High PointBSth0.050.0355.0057.480.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0345.0046.12-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.050.0357.8962.300.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0340.9143.71-0.01-0.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0336.3633.47-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0337.5043.36-0.01-0.00
UC DavisBW0.050.0340.0036.76-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0365.2266.170.020.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0345.0046.78-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.040.0328.5728.54-0.02-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.040.0342.1145.70-0.01-0.00
ElonCAA0.050.0352.1750.420.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0345.4547.56-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.050.0357.8956.080.010.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0350.0049.770.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.040.0334.7836.50-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0333.3333.02-0.02-0.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0328.5729.68-0.02-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0320.0019.67-0.03-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0372.2275.580.020.01
Stony BrookAE0.040.0381.8282.630.030.02
TroySB0.050.0323.8126.67-0.02-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0352.1751.940.000.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0313.6413.62-0.03-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0372.7376.360.020.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.040.0335.0034.72-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.040.0320.8324.10-0.03-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.040.0363.6462.530.010.01
BucknellPat0.000.0354.5558.170.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.050.0359.0958.870.010.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0344.0045.27-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0313.6418.14-0.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.0363.6456.440.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.040.0375.0076.230.020.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.040.0352.9452.160.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0363.6459.460.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.0334.7837.17-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.040.0340.9139.35-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0340.9140.65-0.01-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.040.0360.8763.000.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0327.7834.19-0.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.040.0345.8346.64-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0354.1755.070.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0338.1037.70-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0317.3920.66-0.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.040.0315.0026.98-0.03-0.01