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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Illinois

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:62.0
Current RPI:62
Expected SOS:22
Current SOS:22
Current Record:17-14
Expected Record:17-14
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:48
Expected OOC SOS:46



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-1462.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Southeast Missouri St. (274.0)OVCH81-62W100%0.0
11-13Northern Kentucky (87.0)HorzH79-64W100%0.0
11-18Detroit (289.0)HorzH89-69W100%0.0
11-21Winthrop (70.0)BSthH80-84L0%0.0
11-24West Virginia (24.0)B12N89-57L0%0.0
11-25Florida St. (14.0)ACCN61-72L0%0.0
11-29North Carolina St. (141.0)ACCH88-74W100%0.0
12-3VCU (22.0)A10N64-46W100%0.0
12-6IUPUI (218.0)SumH85-77W100%0.0
12-10Central Michigan (216.0)MACH92-73W100%0.0
12-17BYU (65.0)WCCN75-73W100%0.0
12-21Missouri (257.0)SECN75-66W100%0.0
12-27Maryland (36.0)B10A84-59L0%0.0
1-1Ohio St. (90.0)B10H75-70W100%0.0
1-7Indiana (79.0)B10A96-80L0%0.0
1-11Michigan (25.0)B10H85-69W100%0.0
1-14Maryland (36.0)B10H56-62L0%0.0
1-17Purdue (19.0)B10A91-68L0%0.0
1-21Michigan (25.0)B10A66-57L0%0.0
1-25Iowa (81.0)B10H76-64W100%0.0
1-28Penn St. (101.0)B10A71-67L0%0.0
1-31Wisconsin (35.0)B10H43-57L0%0.0
2-4Minnesota (20.0)B10H59-68L0%0.0
2-7Northwestern (50.0)B10A61-68W100%0.0
2-11Penn St. (101.0)B10H70-83L0%0.0
2-18Iowa (81.0)B10A66-70W100%0.0
2-21Northwestern (50.0)B10H66-50W100%0.0
2-26Nebraska (107.0)B10A57-73W100%0.0
3-1Michigan St. (51.0)B10H73-70W100%0.0
3-4Rutgers (177.0)B10A62-59L0%0.0
3-9Michigan (25.0)B10N75-55L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IllinoisB1026.1126.1150.3650.360.190.19
MichiganB105.445.4468.7568.752.042.04
NorthwesternB103.883.8871.8871.881.701.70
MarylandB103.813.8172.4172.411.711.71
IowaB103.803.8060.0060.000.760.76
Penn St.B103.793.7941.9441.94-0.61-0.61
IndianaB102.372.3753.1253.120.150.15
WisconsinB102.372.3772.7372.731.081.08
RutgersB102.352.3541.9441.94-0.38-0.38
MinnesotaB102.352.3571.8871.881.031.03
PurdueB102.322.3277.4277.421.271.27
NebraskaB102.322.3237.9337.93-0.56-0.56
Michigan St.B102.302.3059.3859.380.430.43
Ohio St.B102.232.2354.8454.840.220.22
IUPUISum1.731.7341.3841.38-0.30-0.30
Northern KentuckyHorz1.721.7270.9770.970.720.72
Florida St.ACC1.721.7275.0075.000.860.86
DetroitHorz1.691.6924.1424.14-0.87-0.87
Southeast Missouri St.OVC1.661.6643.3343.33-0.22-0.22
West VirginiaB121.641.6475.7675.760.840.84
North Carolina St.ACC1.641.6448.3948.39-0.05-0.05
WinthropBSth1.641.6479.3179.310.960.96
BYUWCC1.611.6168.7568.750.600.60
Central MichiganMAC1.611.6148.2848.28-0.06-0.06
MissouriSEC1.611.6125.8125.81-0.78-0.78
VCUA101.611.6178.7978.790.930.93
Notre DameACC0.220.2273.5373.530.100.10
TexasB120.190.1933.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Green BayHorz0.180.1855.1755.170.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.180.1834.3834.38-0.06-0.06
Wright St.Horz0.180.1860.0060.000.040.04
HowardMEAC0.170.1725.0025.00-0.09-0.09
Virginia TechACC0.170.1768.7568.750.060.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.160.1629.4129.41-0.06-0.06
PittsburghACC0.150.1548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.150.1568.7568.750.060.06
DaytonA100.150.1576.6776.670.080.08
Georgia TechACC0.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
DukeACC0.150.1577.1477.140.080.08
Miami OHMAC0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
OaklandHorz0.130.1373.3373.330.060.06
ValparaisoHorz0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
ClemsonACC0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
Miami FLACC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Chicago St.WAC0.120.1210.3410.34-0.10-0.10
Kansas St.B120.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
RichmondA100.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
Wake ForestACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Iowa St.B120.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
St. John'sBE0.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.120.1287.8887.880.090.09
George WashingtonA100.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
George MasonA100.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.120.1221.8821.88-0.07-0.07
MarquetteBE0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.120.1255.8855.880.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Fort WayneSum0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.100.1023.0823.08-0.06-0.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.1017.8617.86-0.07-0.07
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.1070.0070.000.040.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.1044.4444.44-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
AuburnSEC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
KansasB120.100.1087.5087.500.070.07
DePaulBE0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
FurmanSC0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
BaylorB120.100.1077.4277.420.050.05
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
CampbellBSth0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
South DakotaSum0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
ToledoMAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0821.4321.43-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
CreightonBE0.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
PepperdineWCC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
Seton HallBE0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Saint LouisA100.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.070.0773.5373.530.040.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0787.5087.500.050.05
DavidsonA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
DuquesneA100.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
OklahomaB120.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DenverSum0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
High PointBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
NJITASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
AlbanyAE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
ColgatePat0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0596.9796.970.050.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
PacificWCC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.050.0578.5778.570.030.03
TempleAmer0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
BryantNEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Texas TechB120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
BelmontOVC0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
NavyPat0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
IonaMAAC0.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
USCP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02