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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Illinois

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:70.0
Current RPI:70
Expected SOS:40
Current SOS:40
Current Record:19-14
Expected Record:19-14
Current Conf Record:8-12
Expected Conf Record:8-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:54
Expected OOC SOS:207



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1470.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Alabama St. (254.0)SWACH80-63W100%0.0
11-10Jacksonville St. (317.0)OVCH86-62W100%0.0
11-13Valparaiso (184.0)HorzH64-52W100%0.0
11-17Bradley (265.0)MVCH81-55W100%0.0
11-22Chicago St. (259.0)WACH77-53W100%0.0
11-26UNLV (108.0)MWCA59-61W100%0.0
11-29IPFW (115.0)SumH57-55W100%0.0
12-3Georgia Tech (157.0)ACCA67-64L0%0.0
12-8Auburn (169.0)SECN62-81W100%0.0
12-10Dartmouth (266.0)IvyH72-65W100%0.0
12-14Oregon (28.0)P12N71-64L0%0.0
12-21Missouri (49.0)SECN64-65W100%0.0
12-28UIC (315.0)HorzN74-60W100%0.0
12-31Indiana (102.0)B10H83-80W100%0.0
1-4Penn St. (114.0)B10H75-55W100%0.0
1-8Wisconsin (6.0)B10A95-70L0%0.0
1-12Northwestern (123.0)B10A49-43L0%0.0
1-15Purdue (145.0)B10H58-66L0%0.0
1-18Michigan St. (18.0)B10H62-78L0%0.0
1-23Ohio St. (24.0)B10A62-55L0%0.0
1-26Indiana (102.0)B10A56-46L0%0.0
2-1Iowa (56.0)B10H74-81L0%0.0
2-4Wisconsin (6.0)B10H63-75L0%0.0
2-9Penn St. (114.0)B10A55-60W100%0.0
2-12Nebraska (48.0)B10A67-58L0%0.0
2-15Ohio St. (24.0)B10H39-48L0%0.0
2-19Minnesota (50.0)B10A49-62W100%0.0
2-26Nebraska (48.0)B10H60-49W100%0.0
3-1Michigan St. (18.0)B10A46-53W100%0.0
3-4Michigan (11.0)B10H53-84L0%0.0
3-8Iowa (56.0)B10A63-66W100%0.0
3-13Indiana (102.0)B10N54-64W100%0.0
3-14Michigan (11.0)B10N64-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IllinoisB1026.2626.2654.8454.842.542.54
IndianaB105.225.2255.1755.170.540.54
Michigan St.B103.853.8578.1278.122.162.16
MichiganB103.853.8574.1974.191.861.86
Ohio St.B103.813.8171.8871.881.671.67
WisconsinB103.763.7677.4277.422.062.06
NebraskaB103.753.7562.0762.070.900.90
Penn St.B103.733.7350.0050.000.000.00
IowaB103.703.7062.0762.070.890.89
NorthwesternB102.412.4140.6240.62-0.45-0.45
MinnesotaB102.332.3361.2961.290.530.53
PurdueB102.282.2845.1645.16-0.22-0.22
Chicago St.WAC1.661.6637.9337.93-0.40-0.40
Jacksonville St.OVC1.651.6528.5728.57-0.71-0.71
BradleyMVC1.621.6238.7138.71-0.37-0.37
UICHorz1.611.6114.2914.29-1.15-1.15
ValparaisoHorz1.591.5951.7251.720.050.05
Alabama St.SWAC1.591.5959.2659.260.290.29
IPFWSum1.571.5770.0070.000.630.63
DartmouthIvy1.571.5740.0040.00-0.31-0.31
AuburnSEC1.561.5648.2848.28-0.05-0.05
MissouriSEC1.561.5668.7568.750.590.59
Georgia TechACC1.521.5246.8846.88-0.09-0.09
OregonP121.521.5270.9770.970.640.64
UNLVMWC1.521.5262.5062.500.380.38
MilwaukeeHorz0.220.2260.6160.610.050.05
OaklandHorz0.220.2235.4835.48-0.06-0.06
Notre DameACC0.210.2146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.170.1777.7877.780.100.10
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.170.1732.1432.14-0.06-0.06
North FloridaASun0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.150.1528.5728.57-0.07-0.07
St. John'sBE0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.140.1448.1548.15-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
IUPUISum0.140.1410.3410.34-0.11-0.11
FloridaSEC0.140.1494.1294.120.130.13
MississippiSEC0.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.120.1225.9325.93-0.06-0.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
DrakeMVC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
Florida St.ACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.120.1213.7913.79-0.09-0.09
WashingtonP120.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.120.1278.5778.570.070.07
Boston CollegeACC0.120.1222.5822.58-0.06-0.06
SyracuseACC0.120.1284.3884.380.080.08
UCLAP120.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
ArizonaP120.120.1288.2488.240.090.09
Alcorn St.SWAC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.110.1170.3770.370.040.04
ColumbiaIvy0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
DetroitHorz0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1030.3030.30-0.04-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1041.1841.18-0.02-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1042.4242.42-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.1046.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Arizona St.P120.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
KentuckySEC0.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
StanfordP120.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
West VirginiaB120.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
DukeACC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
MarquetteBE0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
WyomingMWC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
BrownIvy0.080.0851.8551.850.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.080.0859.2659.260.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.080.0814.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
CreightonBE0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
BryantNEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
WagnerNEC0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Saint LouisA100.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Oregon St.P120.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
SamfordSC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Washington St.P120.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
OhioMAC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0787.1087.100.050.05
VirginiaACC0.070.0782.3582.350.040.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MarylandACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.060.063.703.70-0.05-0.05
HarvardIvy0.060.0686.2186.210.040.04
YaleIvy0.060.0651.8551.850.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.8114.81-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0546.1546.15-0.00-0.00
IdahoWAC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
SeattleWAC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
DenverSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
UABCUSA0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
XavierBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
DePaulBE0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
LSUSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
DaytonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
BucknellPat0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
DuquesneA100.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
La SalleA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
PacificWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
USCP120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
Air ForceMWC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0514.8114.81-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Oral RobertsSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
AmericanPat0.040.0462.5062.500.010.01
DelawareCAA0.040.0473.5373.530.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.040.0434.6234.62-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.040.0425.9325.93-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.040.0471.8871.880.020.02
TexasB120.040.0469.7069.700.020.02
HartfordAE0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
MaineAE0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
TroySB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
ColoradoP120.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
LehighPat0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
RichmondA100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
RiderMAAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
UtahP120.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
WoffordSC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0216.1316.13-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0230.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.020.023.573.57-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00