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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Illinois

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:134.7
Current RPI:135
Expected SOS:33
Current SOS:81
Current Record:4-3
Expected Record:13-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:4-3
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:134
Expected OOC SOS:41



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-820.00.01%
20-1036.80.11%
19-1148.50.40%
18-1259.01.17%
17-1371.33.27%
16-1485.16.45%
15-1599.310.50%
14-16114.415.28%
13-17130.118.04%
12-18146.917.10%
11-19164.513.62%
10-20181.98.03%
9-21200.74.01%
8-22216.71.51%
7-23232.70.38%
6-24245.70.09%
5-25277.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Southeast Missouri St. (266.5)OVCH81-62W100%0.0
11-13Northern Kentucky (176.9)HorzH79-64W100%0.0
11-18Detroit (301.2)HorzH89-69W100%0.0
11-21Winthrop (119.7)BSthH80-84L0%0.0
11-24West Virginia (16.0)B12N89-57L0%0.0
11-25Florida St. (50.8)ACCN61-72L0%0.0
11-29North Carolina St. (109.3)ACCH88-74W100%0.0
12-3VCU (31.1)A10N0-027%-7.5
12-6IUPUI (194.4)SumH0-076%8.5
12-10Central Michigan (157.8)MACH0-075%8.1
12-17BYU (66.1)WCCN0-036%-4.2
12-21Missouri (167.3)SECN0-052%0.5
12-27Maryland (99.7)B10A0-035%-4.7
1-1Ohio St. (30.8)B10H0-028%-7.1
1-7Indiana (20.3)B10A0-09%-16.0
1-11Michigan (45.6)B10H0-031%-6.1
1-14Maryland (99.7)B10H0-055%1.4
1-17Purdue (28.6)B10A0-09%-15.9
1-21Michigan (45.6)B10A0-015%-12.2
1-25Iowa (164.3)B10H0-059%2.6
1-28Penn St. (136.8)B10A0-043%-2.1
1-31Wisconsin (29.2)B10H0-021%-9.9
2-4Minnesota (46.1)B10H0-039%-3.4
2-7Northwestern (60.3)B10A0-018%-10.9
2-11Penn St. (136.8)B10H0-063%4.0
2-18Iowa (164.3)B10A0-038%-3.5
2-21Northwestern (60.3)B10H0-035%-4.7
2-26Nebraska (94.1)B10A0-034%-5.0
3-1Michigan St. (41.5)B10H0-031%-5.9
3-4Rutgers (182.4)B10A0-052%0.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IllinoisB1029.1226.1041.3836.92-5.02-6.83
NorthwesternB100.003.9171.4365.710.001.23
MichiganB100.003.9171.4365.800.001.23
IowaB100.003.9142.8643.84-0.00-0.48
MarylandB100.003.9085.7156.580.000.51
Penn St.B100.003.8862.5043.760.00-0.48
IndianaB100.002.3783.3374.540.001.16
RutgersB100.002.3783.3344.660.00-0.25
MinnesotaB100.512.3585.7165.830.360.74
PurdueB100.002.3471.4373.910.001.12
NebraskaB100.002.3450.0042.800.00-0.34
Ohio St.B100.002.2985.7172.670.001.04
Michigan St.B100.002.2950.0061.350.000.52
WisconsinB100.002.2975.0073.650.001.08
Northern KentuckyHorz7.141.7860.0054.011.430.14
Florida St.ACC8.451.7883.3361.165.630.40
IUPUISum0.001.7728.5748.60-0.00-0.05
DetroitHorz7.651.750.0020.20-7.65-1.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC7.141.7260.0039.851.43-0.35
West VirginiaB127.141.7080.0079.904.291.01
North Carolina St.ACC7.141.6983.3352.254.760.08
WinthropBSth7.651.6950.0069.370.000.66
BYUWCC0.001.6771.4368.830.000.63
Central MichiganMAC0.001.6766.6757.470.000.25
MissouriSEC0.001.6750.0045.840.00-0.14
VCUA100.001.6785.7178.310.000.94
Notre DameACC0.000.22100.0075.010.000.11
Green BayHorz0.000.2033.3348.71-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.1771.4355.750.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1742.8637.60-0.00-0.04
DaytonA100.000.1766.6772.440.000.07
HowardMEAC0.000.170.0038.26-0.00-0.04
PittsburghACC0.000.1685.7155.550.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.1666.6739.720.00-0.03
DukeACC0.000.1687.5078.680.000.09
TexasB120.000.1650.0036.240.00-0.04
VirginiaACC0.000.16100.0082.550.000.10
Miami OHMAC0.600.1450.0033.010.00-0.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1416.6730.27-0.00-0.06
OaklandHorz0.000.1483.3378.430.000.08
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1485.7174.430.000.07
Chicago St.WAC0.000.140.0017.30-0.00-0.09
Virginia TechACC0.000.1485.7162.920.000.04
Miami FLACC0.000.1471.4365.740.000.04
George WashingtonA100.000.1357.1444.160.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.600.130.0024.77-0.60-0.07
North CarolinaACC0.000.1385.7180.010.000.08
St. John'sBE0.000.1328.5733.92-0.00-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.000.1371.4352.370.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.1257.1440.590.00-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.600.120.0022.69-0.60-0.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1250.0043.490.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.600.1250.0055.850.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.1240.0050.71-0.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1250.0064.840.000.03
Austin PeayOVC0.600.1240.0041.65-0.12-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.000.1266.6770.930.000.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1150.0050.290.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1133.3333.15-0.00-0.04
ManhattanMAAC1.900.1133.3338.19-0.63-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1133.3348.73-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.000.1180.0035.960.00-0.03
MarquetteBE0.000.1171.4363.090.000.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.600.1114.2929.15-0.43-0.05
ClemsonACC0.000.1166.6753.460.000.01
KansasB120.000.1185.7176.170.000.06
UCLAP120.000.11100.0083.550.000.07
Kansas St.B120.000.1185.7155.890.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1183.3356.560.000.01
RichmondA100.000.1157.1448.600.00-0.00
BaylorB120.000.11100.0074.460.000.05
George MasonA100.000.1157.1442.940.00-0.02
Iowa St.B120.000.1171.4368.970.000.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1128.5730.29-0.00-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.000.1185.7175.950.000.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.600.1112.5048.98-0.45-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0920.0048.38-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.510.0925.0038.72-0.26-0.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0933.3336.31-0.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0942.8661.90-0.000.02
South DakotaSum0.000.0957.1447.220.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0950.0052.330.000.00
New HampshireAE1.900.0950.0057.480.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.090.0019.30-0.00-0.05
ToledoMAC0.000.0942.8650.36-0.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.600.0920.0041.93-0.36-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0914.2928.66-0.00-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0957.1447.320.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.510.0850.0045.410.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0833.3326.75-0.00-0.04
FurmanSC0.710.0820.0049.38-0.43-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0842.8645.30-0.00-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.600.0825.0024.28-0.30-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.600.0866.6775.370.200.04
Stony BrookAE0.000.0816.6733.82-0.00-0.03
CreightonBE0.510.08100.0076.650.510.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0866.6751.460.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0850.0035.230.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0883.3362.840.000.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0883.3355.200.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0850.0047.560.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0866.6766.100.000.03
DavidsonA100.000.0883.3368.880.000.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0816.6737.09-0.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.0871.4354.520.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.08100.0080.780.000.05
ButlerBE0.000.08100.0075.690.000.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0816.6736.35-0.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.0837.5034.65-0.00-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.080.0038.51-0.00-0.02
OklahomaB120.000.0883.3351.920.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0866.6770.140.000.03
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0033.54-0.00-0.02
High PointBSth0.000.0650.0051.260.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0625.0024.66-0.00-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0633.3327.13-0.00-0.03
DenverSum0.000.0633.3341.11-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0642.8646.78-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0675.0064.960.000.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0650.0061.810.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0614.2937.52-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0675.0054.320.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0633.3343.64-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0640.0050.91-0.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0616.6736.45-0.00-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0683.3370.360.000.02
UMKCWAC0.600.0671.4356.050.260.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0642.8634.17-0.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0038.35-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0666.6770.740.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0666.6756.020.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0616.6735.65-0.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0666.6751.090.000.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0671.4346.010.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0660.0052.760.000.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0650.0054.490.000.00
ArizonaP120.000.0585.7170.990.000.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0520.0034.22-0.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0587.5075.320.000.03
FordhamA100.000.0557.1443.680.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.05100.0086.250.000.04
LSUSEC0.000.0571.4349.770.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0525.0034.47-0.00-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0557.1448.860.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0550.0060.380.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0550.0027.250.00-0.02
BryantNEC0.000.0528.5750.20-0.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0585.7180.960.000.03
ColgatePat0.000.0520.0041.31-0.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.05100.0091.060.000.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0550.0056.260.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0514.2929.81-0.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.050.0034.23-0.00-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.050.0020.01-0.00-0.03
MemphisAmer0.000.0585.7159.740.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0525.0030.93-0.00-0.02
NJITASun0.000.0542.8650.32-0.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0533.3353.29-0.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0540.0057.49-0.000.01
PacificWCC0.000.0550.0049.010.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.000.0560.0057.170.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0525.0063.95-0.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.510.0550.0046.780.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.05100.0089.040.000.04
San DiegoWCC0.000.0528.5727.50-0.00-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0583.3350.740.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0537.5036.24-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.050.0024.19-0.00-0.03
SMUAmer0.000.0557.1469.300.000.02
StetsonASun0.000.0528.5728.26-0.00-0.02
TCUB120.000.05100.0059.480.000.01
TempleAmer1.110.0571.4363.570.470.01
Texas TechB120.000.0585.7163.780.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0550.0053.560.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0516.6718.96-0.00-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0533.3345.60-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0034.18-0.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0340.0061.37-0.000.01
BradleyMVC0.600.0350.0029.280.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0066.170.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0023.26-0.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0383.3369.840.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0024.25-0.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.600.0340.0040.65-0.12-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.600.0383.3380.700.400.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0350.0051.820.000.00
Little RockSB0.000.0360.0057.900.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0340.0067.95-0.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0350.0062.460.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0380.0068.320.000.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.030.0021.30-0.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.0325.0056.92-0.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0340.0055.44-0.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0013.30-0.00-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0340.0037.65-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0342.8636.82-0.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6754.380.000.00
HartfordAE0.000.0312.5022.55-0.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.000.0314.2933.07-0.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0371.4343.020.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0316.6727.03-0.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0340.0030.80-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0034.01-0.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0314.2926.81-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.03100.0074.800.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0320.0036.00-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0357.1436.050.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0385.7168.390.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.0342.8640.94-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0350.0053.530.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0350.0059.670.000.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0328.5739.44-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0371.4359.850.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0333.3338.76-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0018.22-0.00-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0383.3362.080.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0023.46-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0320.0034.39-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0350.0071.330.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0360.0067.410.000.01
IonaMAAC0.510.0360.0070.140.100.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.030.0042.55-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.000.0360.0051.780.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0383.3357.990.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0366.6761.340.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0320.0032.60-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.510.0366.6754.420.170.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0383.3359.600.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0383.3358.080.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0385.7173.010.000.01
MontanaBSky0.510.0314.2947.44-0.36-0.00
NavyPat0.000.0328.5743.62-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0342.8637.25-0.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0357.1448.240.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0366.6765.810.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0316.6732.62-0.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0371.4356.280.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0371.4370.330.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0047.990.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.000.0357.1455.810.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0350.0046.670.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0333.3323.33-0.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.510.0316.6729.36-0.34-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0325.0040.81-0.00-0.00
USCP120.000.03100.0075.380.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0357.1464.940.000.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0360.0058.950.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0083.120.000.02
VMISC0.000.030.0021.15-0.00-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.0320.0054.94-0.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0371.4386.030.000.02