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Through games of Nov 26, 2014.


Illinois

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:53.3
Current RPI:76
Expected SOS:47
Current SOS:242
Current Record:4-0
Expected Record:20-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:4-0
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:57
Expected OOC SOS:174



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-34.50.02%
26-46.20.20%
25-58.70.69%
24-612.22.16%
23-717.85.05%
22-824.69.40%
21-933.014.93%
20-1044.218.17%
19-1156.317.38%
18-1270.814.53%
17-1385.69.68%
16-14100.34.94%
15-15117.41.89%
14-16132.20.78%
13-17151.70.12%
12-18179.00.02%
11-19188.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Georgia Southern (196.3)SBH80-71W100%0.0
11-16Coppin St. (287.3)MEACH114-56W100%0.0
11-21Austin Peay (304.8)OVCH107-66W100%0.0
11-24Brown (251.5)IvyH89-68W100%0.0
11-27Indiana St. (185.9)MVCN0-086%13.2
12-2Miami FL (10.6)ACCA0-022%-9.1
12-6American (108.7)PatH0-087%13.6
12-9Villanova (24.7)BEN0-040%-3.0
12-13Oregon (72.3)P12H0-067%5.2
12-17Hampton (269.8)MEACH0-096%21.1
12-20Missouri (159.3)SECN0-079%9.6
12-27Kennesaw St. (304.6)ASunH0-099%26.2
12-30Michigan (41.5)B10A0-034%-5.0
1-3Ohio St. (33.4)B10A0-028%-7.1
1-7Maryland (43.9)B10H0-059%2.7
1-11Nebraska (80.9)B10A0-049%-0.4
1-14Northwestern (171.8)B10A0-077%8.7
1-18Indiana (90.4)B10H0-070%6.5
1-21Purdue (48.3)B10H0-058%2.3
1-24Minnesota (89.2)B10A0-047%-1.1
1-31Penn St. (130.4)B10H0-084%11.9
2-3Rutgers (231.6)B10H0-095%19.8
2-7Michigan St. (36.2)B10A0-029%-6.8
2-12Michigan (41.5)B10H0-057%2.2
2-15Wisconsin (5.6)B10A0-013%-13.5
2-22Michigan St. (36.2)B10H0-051%0.4
2-25Iowa (42.3)B10A0-031%-5.9
2-28Northwestern (171.8)B10H0-091%15.9
3-4Nebraska (80.9)B10H0-071%6.7
3-7Purdue (48.3)B10A0-034%-4.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IllinoisB1032.5026.13100.0062.7232.506.65
MichiganB100.004.0375.0067.510.001.41
NorthwesternB101.253.9883.3341.190.83-0.70
Michigan St.B100.003.9475.0072.930.001.81
PurdueB100.003.9283.3369.610.001.54
NebraskaB100.003.8975.0054.320.000.34
IowaB100.002.3766.6765.730.000.74
MarylandB100.002.34100.0072.890.001.07
MinnesotaB100.002.3450.0055.360.000.25
WisconsinB100.002.34100.0086.440.001.70
IndianaB100.002.3380.0058.030.000.37
Ohio St.B100.002.33100.0074.840.001.16
RutgersB100.002.3350.0025.200.00-1.16
Penn St.B100.002.2883.3349.480.00-0.02
BrownIvy12.501.8125.0039.42-6.25-0.38
Coppin St.MEAC12.501.780.0028.67-12.50-0.76
OregonP121.561.7560.0064.100.310.49
HamptonMEAC0.001.7516.6747.26-0.00-0.10
Indiana St.MVC2.811.7375.0044.801.41-0.18
Austin PeayOVC12.501.730.0032.11-12.50-0.62
AmericanPat0.001.7366.6761.110.000.38
VillanovaBE0.001.72100.0077.670.000.95
MissouriSEC0.001.7240.0036.93-0.00-0.45
Georgia SouthernSB12.501.67100.0053.0512.500.10
Kennesaw St.ASun0.001.6733.3331.14-0.00-0.63
Miami FLACC0.001.67100.0079.870.001.00
North FloridaASun0.000.2240.0052.52-0.000.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.2025.0039.50-0.00-0.04
SyracuseACC0.000.2080.0068.140.000.07
ButlerBE0.000.19100.0071.480.000.08
Notre DameACC1.560.1783.3369.221.040.06
BucknellPat0.000.1733.3335.82-0.00-0.05
LipscombASun0.000.150.0045.69-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1425.0039.67-0.00-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.14100.0052.420.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.1425.0045.71-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1416.6739.87-0.00-0.03
ArizonaP120.000.14100.0075.690.000.07
Northern IowaMVC0.000.14100.0077.900.000.08
LouisvilleACC0.000.14100.0079.150.000.08
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1266.6741.320.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.120.0034.83-0.00-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.120.0025.37-0.00-0.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1250.0040.810.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.1225.0048.11-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC1.560.1133.3335.00-0.52-0.03
CreightonBE0.000.11100.0060.970.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.1140.0038.71-0.00-0.03
DukeACC0.000.11100.0083.600.000.08
NJITind0.000.1120.0029.79-0.00-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.000.1166.6751.210.000.00
NavyPat0.000.1120.0029.93-0.00-0.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1140.0033.60-0.00-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.000.11100.0066.690.000.04
ElonCAA0.000.1140.0039.53-0.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.000.1150.0037.010.00-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.000.11100.0053.810.000.01
TroySB0.000.090.0043.61-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0950.0027.510.00-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.090.0036.09-0.00-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.090.0039.18-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.090.0035.63-0.00-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0940.0047.86-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.000.090.0030.90-0.00-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0925.0044.18-0.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0975.0068.330.000.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.09100.0060.350.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.09100.0057.480.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0975.0064.980.000.03
MississippiSEC0.000.0975.0052.920.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0942.8640.94-0.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.090.0036.14-0.00-0.02
PennIvy0.000.090.0023.29-0.00-0.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.090.0031.85-0.00-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0933.3359.02-0.000.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0914.2931.08-0.00-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.090.0027.68-0.00-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.090.0066.35-0.000.03
Holy CrossPat1.250.09100.0066.081.250.03
CaliforniaP120.000.0980.0070.250.000.03
DetroitHorz0.000.0960.0058.400.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0825.0034.11-0.00-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.080.0033.69-0.00-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0850.0047.310.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0816.6726.44-0.00-0.04
SMUAmer0.000.0850.0065.300.000.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.080.0040.80-0.00-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.080.0027.57-0.00-0.04
IUPUISum0.000.0840.0030.81-0.00-0.03
AkronMAC0.000.0860.0066.190.000.03
St. John'sBE0.000.08100.0058.520.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0860.0053.110.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.0820.0039.02-0.00-0.02
LehighPat0.000.0820.0042.40-0.00-0.01
USCP120.000.0850.0028.760.00-0.04
Seton HallBE0.000.08100.0064.150.000.02
XavierBE0.000.08100.0077.810.000.05
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0860.0067.390.000.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.08100.0061.350.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.08100.0049.260.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0840.0026.51-0.00-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.080.0015.65-0.00-0.06
North CarolinaACC0.000.0875.0067.420.000.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.08100.0065.430.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0860.0036.000.00-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0666.6750.220.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0660.0067.690.000.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0625.0051.72-0.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3357.92-0.000.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0666.6746.630.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0660.0051.520.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0633.3367.86-0.000.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.060.0034.53-0.00-0.02
FIUCUSA3.120.0650.0042.970.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA1.560.0625.0041.79-0.78-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0650.0029.060.00-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0022.25-0.00-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0061.080.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0625.0024.98-0.00-0.03
HarvardIvy0.000.0666.6773.440.000.03
HawaiiBW0.000.0671.4357.180.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0650.0064.230.000.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.06100.0052.660.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0650.0049.570.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0650.0050.040.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0625.0037.52-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.06100.0084.900.000.04
YaleIvy0.000.0680.0070.280.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0620.0031.47-0.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0018.42-0.00-0.04
New HampshireAE0.000.0633.3345.71-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC1.250.0620.0041.72-0.75-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0620.0042.29-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0616.6731.72-0.00-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0625.0047.86-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0680.0071.650.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0025.58-0.00-0.03
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0046.840.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0633.3339.69-0.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.060.0028.78-0.00-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.060.0030.79-0.00-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0660.0042.120.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0675.0077.520.000.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0650.0047.220.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0666.6751.600.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0079.750.000.03
ArmyPat0.000.06100.0069.410.000.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0660.0037.550.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0625.0053.31-0.000.00
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0089.070.000.04
LafayettePat0.000.0660.0060.080.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0640.0031.26-0.00-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.06100.0045.580.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0650.0042.760.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0625.0046.16-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0675.0068.260.000.02
UCLAP120.000.0680.0063.410.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.06100.0055.210.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0633.3329.54-0.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0560.0050.770.000.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0550.0064.920.000.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0575.0069.280.000.02
La SalleA100.000.05100.0056.620.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0550.0052.150.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.05100.0061.400.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0560.0050.320.000.00
VCUA100.000.0580.0073.080.000.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0540.0038.08-0.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.0550.0067.000.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.05100.0054.940.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.0566.6726.420.00-0.03
DrexelCAA0.000.0520.0036.68-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.050.0026.01-0.00-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0540.0057.50-0.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.050.0020.69-0.00-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.050.0024.09-0.00-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0520.0031.23-0.00-0.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0575.0062.480.000.01
IPFWSum0.000.0566.6762.950.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0550.0046.630.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0560.0057.880.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.05100.0073.600.000.03
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0566.6753.510.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0375.0055.330.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.0366.6740.010.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0380.0076.610.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0325.0031.71-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0036.120.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0333.3346.13-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.000.0333.3346.61-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0375.0069.010.000.01
DenverSum1.560.0350.0060.810.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0360.0068.220.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0380.0079.380.000.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0375.0046.370.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0380.0057.990.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.0380.0062.960.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0375.0064.180.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0325.0027.83-0.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0375.0066.110.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0333.3354.15-0.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0320.0034.26-0.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0333.3351.34-0.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0320.0050.03-0.000.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0325.0044.95-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0035.41-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0325.0040.45-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0366.6747.140.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0340.0048.44-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0350.0040.550.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0380.0058.430.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0333.3338.74-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0375.0060.100.000.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0333.3339.40-0.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0360.0056.970.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0380.0071.830.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0360.0055.990.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0325.0048.57-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0325.0036.66-0.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0375.0064.910.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0340.0038.45-0.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.03100.0056.970.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.0022.89-0.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0350.0051.520.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.030.0051.96-0.000.00
StanfordP120.000.0380.0070.970.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0350.0065.760.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0044.110.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0340.0060.24-0.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0333.3367.52-0.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0056.00-0.000.00
UtahP120.000.0375.0073.450.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0375.0055.290.000.00
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0034.56-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0340.0053.46-0.000.00
DelawareCAA0.000.030.0019.74-0.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.03100.0054.340.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0380.0074.900.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0340.0046.02-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.000.0375.0055.980.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0380.0046.930.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0325.0036.41-0.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0320.0022.02-0.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0350.0044.930.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0036.91-0.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0366.6755.570.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0360.0039.490.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.03100.0080.270.000.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.030.0028.63-0.00-0.01
VMISC0.000.0325.0036.44-0.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.030.0045.08-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0333.3353.30-0.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0366.6756.860.000.00