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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Illinois

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:149.0
Current RPI:149
Expected SOS:63
Current SOS:63
Current Record:15-19
Expected Record:15-19
Current Conf Record:7-14
Expected Conf Record:7-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:130
Expected OOC SOS:91



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-19149.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13North Florida (161.0)ASunH81-93L0%0.0
11-15North Dakota St. (120.0)SumH80-74W100%0.0
11-18Providence (40.0)BEA60-59L0%0.0
11-21Chattanooga (50.0)SCH77-81L0%0.0
11-23Chicago St. (348.0)WACH82-79W100%0.0
11-27UAB (88.0)CUSAN72-58W100%0.0
11-28Iowa St. (23.0)B12N73-84L0%0.0
12-2Notre Dame (31.0)ACCH79-84L0%0.0
12-5Western Carolina (166.0)SCH80-68W100%0.0
12-9Yale (44.0)IvyH69-65W100%0.0
12-12Illinois Chicago (346.0)HorzN83-79W100%0.0
12-19South Dakota (197.0)SumH91-79W100%0.0
12-23Missouri (222.0)SECN63-68W100%0.0
12-30Michigan (56.0)B10H68-78L0%0.0
1-3Ohio St. (74.0)B10A75-73L0%0.0
1-7Michigan St. (12.0)B10A79-54L0%0.0
1-10Purdue (15.0)B10H84-70W100%0.0
1-16Nebraska (165.0)B10H67-78L0%0.0
1-19Indiana (24.0)B10A103-69L0%0.0
1-23Minnesota (257.0)B10A71-76W100%0.0
1-28Ohio St. (74.0)B10H63-68L0%0.0
1-31Wisconsin (43.0)B10H55-63L0%0.0
2-3Rutgers (294.0)B10A101-110W100%0.0
2-7Iowa (28.0)B10H65-77L0%0.0
2-13Northwestern (115.0)B10A58-56L0%0.0
2-16Rutgers (294.0)B10H82-66W100%0.0
2-21Wisconsin (43.0)B10A69-60L0%0.0
2-25Indiana (24.0)B10H47-74L0%0.0
2-28Minnesota (257.0)B10H84-71W100%0.0
3-3Maryland (14.0)B10A81-55L0%0.0
3-6Penn St. (125.0)B10A86-79L0%0.0
3-9Minnesota (257.0)B10N85-52W100%0.0
3-10Iowa (28.0)B10N66-68W100%0.0
3-11Purdue (15.0)B10N89-58L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IllinoisB1026.2126.2139.3839.38-5.57-5.57
MinnesotaB105.015.0128.5728.57-2.15-2.15
IndianaB103.613.6176.6776.671.921.92
PurdueB103.583.5878.1278.122.022.02
IowaB103.583.5868.9768.971.361.36
RutgersB103.553.5520.6920.69-2.08-2.08
Ohio St.B103.543.5458.0658.060.570.57
WisconsinB103.533.5360.0060.000.710.71
Michigan St.B102.272.2784.8584.851.581.58
MichiganB102.252.2562.5062.500.560.56
NebraskaB102.232.2345.4545.45-0.20-0.20
NorthwesternB102.182.1861.2961.290.490.49
MarylandB102.152.1574.1974.191.041.04
Penn St.B102.112.1148.3948.39-0.07-0.07
Iowa St.B121.591.5964.5264.520.460.46
South DakotaSum1.591.5941.3841.38-0.27-0.27
Chicago St.WAC1.591.593.573.57-1.47-1.47
ChattanoogaSC1.571.5783.8783.871.061.06
Notre DameACC1.561.5664.5264.520.450.45
North Dakota St.Sum1.541.5460.0060.000.310.31
Western CarolinaSC1.541.5444.8344.83-0.16-0.16
MissouriSEC1.491.4933.3333.33-0.50-0.50
ProvidenceBE1.491.4968.7568.750.560.56
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.471.4711.1111.11-1.14-1.14
North FloridaASun1.471.4762.0762.070.350.35
UABCUSA1.471.4783.3383.330.980.98
YaleIvy1.471.4780.7780.770.900.90
Western IllinoisSum0.240.2429.1729.17-0.10-0.10
MilwaukeeHorz0.220.2258.0658.060.040.04
UMKCWAC0.190.1932.1432.14-0.07-0.07
Nebraska OmahaSum0.190.1955.1755.170.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.190.1977.4277.420.100.10
IPFWSum0.190.1970.9770.970.080.08
IUPUISum0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
MarquetteBE0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
VMISC0.160.1622.2222.22-0.09-0.09
CreightonBE0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.140.1458.6258.620.020.02
WoffordSC0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
ClemsonACC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.140.1430.0030.00-0.06-0.06
SamfordSC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
MercerSC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
St. John'sBE0.140.1422.5822.58-0.08-0.08
Green BayHorz0.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
DukeACC0.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.120.1231.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Texas TechB120.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
OklahomaB120.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
GeorgetownBE0.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.110.1121.8821.88-0.06-0.06
ButlerBE0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.100.1072.4172.410.050.05
OaklandHorz0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.100.1018.5218.52-0.06-0.06
NJITASun0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
DenverSum0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
The CitadelSC0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
Kansas St.B120.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.090.0935.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Seton HallBE0.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
North CarolinaACC0.090.0982.3582.350.060.06
PittsburghACC0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
HowardMEAC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
XavierBE0.090.0984.3884.380.060.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0924.2424.24-0.05-0.05
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
FloridaSEC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
VillanovaBE0.090.0985.2985.290.060.06
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0865.5265.520.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.080.0877.7877.780.040.04
BrownIvy0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
HarvardIvy0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
SeattleWAC0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
LipscombASun0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
FIUCUSA0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
BryantNEC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
VermontAE0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
UNLVMWC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
VCUA100.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
George WashingtonA100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0760.7160.710.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
North DakotaBSky0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
TexasB120.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
KansasB120.070.0787.8887.880.050.05
Miami FLACC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0762.8662.860.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
CornellIvy0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ArizonaP120.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0576.6776.670.020.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.040.0422.8622.86-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.040.0440.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.040.0414.2914.29-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.040.0455.8855.880.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.040.0468.7568.750.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.040.0416.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.040.0456.0056.000.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.040.0453.1253.120.000.00
AlbanyAE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
USCP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
DavidsonA100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0282.1482.140.020.02
TroySB0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
UTSACUSA0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
LibertyBSth0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
ElonCAA0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01