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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Illinois

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:73.0
Current RPI:73
Expected SOS:65
Current SOS:65
Current Record:19-13
Expected Record:19-13
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:59
Expected OOC SOS:145



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1373.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Georgia Southern (113.0)SBH80-71W100%0.0
11-16Coppin St. (311.0)MEACH114-56W100%0.0
11-21Austin Peay (318.0)OVCH107-66W100%0.0
11-24Brown (248.0)IvyH89-68W100%0.0
11-27Indiana St. (190.0)MVCN62-88W100%0.0
11-28Baylor (10.0)B12N54-62W100%0.0
12-2Miami FL (65.0)ACCA70-61L0%0.0
12-6American (135.0)PatH70-55W100%0.0
12-9Villanova (3.0)BEN59-73L0%0.0
12-13Oregon (27.0)P12N70-77L0%0.0
12-17Hampton (251.0)MEACH73-55W100%0.0
12-20Missouri (218.0)SECN59-62W100%0.0
12-27Kennesaw St. (319.0)ASunH93-45W100%0.0
12-30Michigan (81.0)B10A73-65L0%0.0
1-3Ohio St. (41.0)B10A77-61L0%0.0
1-7Maryland (13.0)B10H64-57W100%0.0
1-11Nebraska (158.0)B10A53-43L0%0.0
1-14Northwestern (125.0)B10A67-72W100%0.0
1-18Indiana (61.0)B10H74-80L0%0.0
1-21Purdue (55.0)B10H66-57W100%0.0
1-24Minnesota (98.0)B10A79-71L0%0.0
1-31Penn St. (108.0)B10H60-58W100%0.0
2-3Rutgers (178.0)B10H66-54W100%0.0
2-7Michigan St. (23.0)B10A54-59W100%0.0
2-12Michigan (81.0)B10H64-52W100%0.0
2-15Wisconsin (4.0)B10A68-49L0%0.0
2-22Michigan St. (23.0)B10H53-60L0%0.0
2-25Iowa (43.0)B10A68-60L0%0.0
2-28Northwestern (125.0)B10H86-60W100%0.0
3-4Nebraska (158.0)B10H69-57W100%0.0
3-7Purdue (55.0)B10A63-58L0%0.0
3-12Michigan (81.0)B10N55-73L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IllinoisB1026.1326.1357.2657.263.793.79
MichiganB105.315.3146.4346.43-0.38-0.38
Michigan St.B103.783.7868.7568.751.421.42
NorthwesternB103.753.7550.0050.000.000.00
PurdueB103.703.7064.5264.521.081.08
NebraskaB103.653.6541.3841.38-0.63-0.63
WisconsinB102.342.3490.9190.911.911.91
Ohio St.B102.262.2668.7568.750.850.85
Penn St.B102.242.2454.5554.550.200.20
IndianaB102.232.2359.3859.380.420.42
MarylandB102.232.2384.3884.381.541.54
RutgersB102.212.2132.2632.26-0.79-0.79
IowaB102.212.2164.5264.520.640.64
MinnesotaB102.212.2151.6151.610.070.07
BrownIvy1.691.6939.2939.29-0.36-0.36
Coppin St.MEAC1.691.6924.1424.14-0.87-0.87
OregonP121.661.6671.8871.880.730.73
VillanovaBE1.641.6493.9493.941.441.44
HamptonMEAC1.641.6450.0050.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC1.621.6248.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Austin PeayOVC1.621.6222.2222.22-0.90-0.90
AmericanPat1.611.6153.1253.120.100.10
MissouriSEC1.611.6126.6726.67-0.75-0.75
BaylorB121.561.5674.1974.190.760.76
Georgia SouthernSB1.561.5670.3770.370.640.64
Kennesaw St.ASun1.561.5627.5927.59-0.70-0.70
Miami FLACC1.561.5662.5062.500.390.39
North FloridaASun0.200.2064.5264.520.060.06
SyracuseACC0.200.2058.0658.060.030.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.170.1739.2939.29-0.04-0.04
ArizonaP120.170.1791.1891.180.140.14
ButlerBE0.170.1768.7568.750.060.06
BucknellPat0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
Notre DameACC0.170.1785.2985.290.120.12
MarquetteBE0.160.1640.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.150.1548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.150.1522.5822.58-0.08-0.08
LipscombASun0.130.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.130.1363.3363.330.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.130.1390.9190.910.100.10
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
HowardMEAC0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.120.1256.0056.000.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
KansasB120.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
LouisvilleACC0.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.1010.3410.34-0.08-0.08
ElonCAA0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1075.8675.860.050.05
DetroitHorz0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.100.1081.2581.250.060.06
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.1026.9226.92-0.05-0.05
Florida St.ACC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
OklahomaB120.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
Iowa St.B120.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
CreightonBE0.100.1042.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0964.7164.710.030.03
LehighPat0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
NavyPat0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.090.0987.8887.880.070.07
GeorgetownBE0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Georgia St.SB0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
TroySB0.080.0829.6329.63-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0844.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
CornellIvy0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
PennIvy0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
IUPUISum0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
TexasB120.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
West VirginiaB120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
AkronMAC0.070.0758.8258.820.010.01
CaliforniaP120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0718.7518.75-0.05-0.05
North CarolinaACC0.070.0768.5768.570.030.03
VirginiaACC0.070.0790.6290.620.060.06
Arizona St.P120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
LafayettePat0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Seton HallBE0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
St. John'sBE0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
USCP120.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0574.0774.070.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
YaleIvy0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0586.6786.670.040.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
AuburnSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
HawaiiBW0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0558.3358.330.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Texas TechB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
ArmyPat0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
IPFWSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
UtahP120.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
WashingtonP120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Washington St.P120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
La SalleA100.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
TempleAmer0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
VCUA100.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
DenverSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
SeattleWAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0227.2727.27-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
High PointBSth0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
LamarSlnd0.020.0242.3142.31-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0230.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
ToledoMAC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
DelawareCAA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00