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Through games of Mar 11, 2012.


Illinois

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:92.0
Current RPI:92
Expected SOS:32
Current SOS:32
Current Record:17-15
Expected Record:17-15
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:46
Expected OOC SOS:135



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-1592.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Loyola Chicago (309.0)HorzH67-49W100%0.0
11-14SIU Edwardsville (300.0)OVCH66-46W100%0.0
11-17Lipscomb (225.0)ASunH79-64W100%0.0
11-22Richmond (127.0)A10N70-61W100%0.0
11-23Illinois St. (100.0)MVCN59-63W100%0.0
11-27Chicago St. (336.0)GWCH90-43W100%0.0
11-29Maryland (105.0)ACCA62-71W100%0.0
12-3Gonzaga (25.0)WCCH82-75W100%0.0
12-7St. Bonaventure (72.0)A10H48-43W100%0.0
12-11Coppin St. (276.0)MEACH80-63W100%0.0
12-17Nevada Las Vegas (21.0)MWCN48-64L0%0.0
12-19Cornell (181.0)IvyH64-60W100%0.0
12-22Missouri (10.0)B12N78-74L0%0.0
12-27Minnesota (89.0)B10H81-72W100%0.0
12-31Purdue (48.0)B10A75-60L0%0.0
1-4Northwestern (63.0)B10A56-57W100%0.0
1-7Nebraska (154.0)B10H59-54W100%0.0
1-10Ohio St. (7.0)B10H79-74W100%0.0
1-19Penn St. (161.0)B10A54-52L0%0.0
1-22Wisconsin (23.0)B10H63-67L0%0.0
1-28Minnesota (89.0)B10A77-72L0%0.0
1-31Michigan St. (4.0)B10H42-41W100%0.0
2-5Northwestern (63.0)B10H70-74L0%0.0
2-9Indiana (17.0)B10A84-71L0%0.0
2-12Michigan (14.0)B10A70-61L0%0.0
2-15Purdue (48.0)B10H62-67L0%0.0
2-18Nebraska (154.0)B10A80-57L0%0.0
2-21Ohio St. (7.0)B10A83-67L0%0.0
2-26Iowa (130.0)B10H65-54W100%0.0
3-1Michigan (14.0)B10H61-72L0%0.0
3-4Wisconsin (23.0)B10A70-56L0%0.0
3-8Iowa (130.0)B10N64-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IllinoisB1026.1926.1948.4648.46-0.81-0.81
Ohio St.B103.903.9081.2581.252.442.44
PurdueB103.883.8861.2961.290.880.88
IowaB103.883.8851.6151.610.130.13
MinnesotaB103.883.8858.0658.060.630.63
WisconsinB103.853.8570.9770.971.611.61
MichiganB103.843.8470.0070.001.541.54
NorthwesternB103.843.8458.6258.620.660.66
NebraskaB103.813.8139.2939.29-0.82-0.82
Michigan St.B102.482.4881.2581.251.551.55
Penn St.B102.372.3735.4835.48-0.69-0.69
IndianaB102.352.3575.0075.001.181.18
Chicago St.GWC1.691.6911.1111.11-1.32-1.32
Illinois St.MVC1.651.6562.5062.500.410.41
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC1.641.6433.3333.33-0.55-0.55
CornellIvy1.641.6442.3142.31-0.25-0.25
LipscombASun1.621.6241.3841.38-0.28-0.28
St. BonaventureA101.621.6266.6766.670.540.54
Coppin St.MEAC1.611.6140.0040.00-0.32-0.32
Nevada Las VegasMWC1.611.6174.1974.190.780.78
MarylandACC1.591.5954.8454.840.150.15
Loyola ChicagoHorz1.591.5921.4321.43-0.91-0.91
RichmondA101.591.5951.6151.610.050.05
GonzagaWCC1.591.5983.3383.331.061.06
MissouriB121.561.5687.8887.881.181.18
CreightonMVC0.250.2584.8584.850.170.17
BradleyMVC0.170.1721.8821.88-0.10-0.10
North CarolinaACC0.170.1785.2985.290.120.12
Iowa St.B120.170.1768.7568.750.060.06
DukeACC0.170.1781.8281.820.110.11
Saint Joseph'sA100.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.150.1525.0025.00-0.08-0.08
ButlerHorz0.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
XavierA100.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.140.1437.0437.04-0.04-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
Northern IllinoisMAC0.130.1313.7913.79-0.09-0.09
Wake ForestACC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
Southern CaliforniaP120.120.1218.7518.75-0.08-0.08
Wichita St.MVC0.120.1283.8783.870.080.08
Brigham YoungWCC0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.120.1229.6329.63-0.05-0.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.120.126.676.67-0.11-0.11
TempleA100.120.1277.4277.420.070.07
BaylorB120.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
Northern IowaMVC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.120.1236.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
BrownIvy0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
CharlotteA100.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.100.1070.0070.000.040.04
DePaulBE0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.100.1040.7440.74-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
Texas ChristianMWC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
BucknellPat0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
ValparaisoHorz0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
DuquesneA100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South Carolina UpstateASun0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
VirginiaACC0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
DaytonA100.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Notre DameBE0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.100.1078.1278.120.050.05
Miami FLACC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
DrakeMVC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
KansasB120.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
DetroitHorz0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
TowsonCAA0.080.083.123.12-0.07-0.07
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
OklahomaB120.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
St. Mary'sWCC0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
CampbellBSth0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
MemphisCUSA0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
MassachusettsA100.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0764.7164.710.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.070.0781.2581.250.050.05
UCLAP120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
WyomingMWC0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0739.3939.39-0.02-0.02
OaklandSum0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0723.0823.08-0.04-0.04
ClemsonACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
HarvardIvy0.060.0686.2186.210.040.04
PennsylvaniaIvy0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
YaleIvy0.060.0665.3865.380.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.060.0696.4396.430.050.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
Houston BaptistGWC0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
North DakotaGWC0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyGWC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
ToledoMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.050.0564.2964.290.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
AmericanPat0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
LehighPat0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
BelmontASun0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0528.0028.00-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.056.456.45-0.05-0.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
HawaiiWAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
St. LouisA100.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0594.1294.120.040.04
NC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
RutgersBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Old DominionCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
High PointBSth0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
St. Peter'sMAAC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
LamarSlnd0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MB120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Virginia Military InstBSth0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
ConnecticutBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.WAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityAE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
CincinnatiBE0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
FurmanSC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Longwoodind0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
SienaMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
DavidsonSC0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
Florida InternationalSB0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Long IslandNEC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
NC GreensboroSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NevadaWAC0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
SamfordSC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
South FloridaBE0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Texas El PasoCUSA0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.020.0282.3582.350.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.WAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.020.027.147.14-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00