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Through games of Dec 16, 2014.


Illinois

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:46.3
Current RPI:58
Expected SOS:56
Current SOS:58
Current Record:7-3
Expected Record:21-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:65
Expected OOC SOS:149



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-413.50.02%
26-511.20.16%
25-615.81.06%
24-719.33.68%
23-824.29.91%
22-930.516.41%
21-1038.921.40%
20-1149.219.99%
19-1262.415.16%
18-1376.17.61%
17-1493.13.22%
16-15110.20.98%
15-16126.60.35%
14-17152.80.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Georgia Southern (127.1)SBH80-71W100%0.0
11-16Coppin St. (335.6)MEACH114-56W100%0.0
11-21Austin Peay (295.4)OVCH107-66W100%0.0
11-24Brown (245.2)IvyH89-68W100%0.0
11-27Indiana St. (240.2)MVCN62-88W100%0.0
11-28Baylor (9.7)B12N54-62W100%0.0
12-2Miami FL (23.0)ACCA70-61L0%0.0
12-6American (98.4)PatH70-55W100%0.0
12-9Villanova (16.8)BEN59-73L0%0.0
12-13Oregon (103.7)P12N70-77L0%0.0
12-17Hampton (250.6)MEACH0-097%22.0
12-20Missouri (178.1)SECN0-088%13.9
12-27Kennesaw St. (313.9)ASunH0-099%29.6
12-30Michigan (132.7)B10A0-064%4.2
1-3Ohio St. (12.1)B10A0-015%-12.4
1-7Maryland (45.6)B10H0-071%6.7
1-11Nebraska (113.5)B10A0-064%4.2
1-14Northwestern (143.6)B10A0-068%5.5
1-18Indiana (78.8)B10H0-077%8.6
1-21Purdue (60.3)B10H0-066%4.8
1-24Minnesota (49.5)B10A0-039%-3.4
1-31Penn St. (94.7)B10H0-088%13.8
2-3Rutgers (157.4)B10H0-094%18.9
2-7Michigan St. (32.0)B10A0-028%-6.9
2-12Michigan (132.7)B10H0-087%13.1
2-15Wisconsin (5.7)B10A0-010%-15.2
2-22Michigan St. (32.0)B10H0-057%2.0
2-25Iowa (46.8)B10A0-036%-4.2
2-28Northwestern (143.6)B10H0-089%14.5
3-4Nebraska (113.5)B10H0-087%13.2
3-7Purdue (60.3)B10A0-036%-4.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IllinoisB1027.9226.1165.7965.568.828.12
MichiganB100.563.8955.5644.050.06-0.46
NorthwesternB100.253.8466.6746.320.08-0.28
Michigan St.B100.003.8170.0071.880.001.67
PurdueB100.003.7872.7364.400.001.09
NebraskaB100.003.7566.6744.340.00-0.42
IowaB100.002.2872.7362.610.000.58
WisconsinB100.002.2590.9188.240.001.72
MarylandB100.002.2590.9169.230.000.87
MinnesotaB100.002.2577.7864.970.000.67
Ohio St.B100.002.2588.8983.980.001.53
RutgersB100.002.2560.0036.390.00-0.61
IndianaB100.002.2580.0058.700.000.39
Penn St.B100.002.2090.9155.750.000.25
BrownIvy5.811.7544.4435.43-0.65-0.51
Coppin St.MEAC5.311.720.0015.07-5.31-1.20
OregonP125.281.7057.1456.350.750.22
HamptonMEAC0.531.6944.4451.45-0.060.05
Indiana St.MVC5.531.6737.5035.70-1.38-0.48
AmericanPat5.251.6766.6767.341.750.58
Austin PeayOVC5.531.6725.0032.98-2.76-0.57
VillanovaBE5.001.67100.0081.685.001.06
MissouriSEC0.001.6644.4432.13-0.00-0.59
BaylorB125.001.61100.0077.665.000.89
Georgia SouthernSB5.001.6175.0066.692.500.54
Kennesaw St.ASun0.001.6130.0029.27-0.00-0.67
Miami FLACC5.001.6188.8975.043.890.81
North FloridaASun0.000.2150.0061.230.000.05
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1925.0033.31-0.00-0.06
SyracuseACC0.000.1966.6757.080.000.03
ButlerBE0.280.1980.0072.430.170.08
BucknellPat0.250.1640.0036.16-0.05-0.04
Notre DameACC0.280.1690.9171.250.230.07
MarquetteBE0.000.1655.5647.220.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1433.3340.42-0.00-0.03
LipscombASun0.280.1425.0042.82-0.14-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.280.1450.0056.650.000.02
HowardMEAC0.250.1433.3343.17-0.08-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1420.0037.42-0.00-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.1483.3366.520.000.05
ArizonaP120.000.14100.0080.930.000.08
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1390.0079.360.000.08
VanderbiltSEC0.280.1375.0060.540.140.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.13100.0085.390.000.09
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1271.4367.660.000.04
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1120.0033.83-0.00-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.110.0017.65-0.00-0.07
CreightonBE0.000.1172.7351.370.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.1144.4433.13-0.00-0.04
NJITind0.000.1136.3641.92-0.00-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.1166.6765.150.000.03
SamfordSC0.280.1133.3331.09-0.09-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.250.1118.1827.73-0.16-0.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1166.6754.790.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.1137.5048.77-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.000.1177.7868.030.000.04
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1188.8964.140.000.03
ProvidenceBE0.250.1172.7352.480.110.01
KansasB120.000.1188.8969.900.000.04
Kansas St.B120.000.1160.0038.270.00-0.02
NavyPat0.000.1120.0021.16-0.00-0.06
Iowa St.B120.000.1188.8964.670.000.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.280.1011.1145.10-0.22-0.01
DukeACC0.000.10100.0087.520.000.08
GeorgetownBE0.000.1066.6759.740.000.02
TroySB0.280.0933.3341.99-0.09-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0942.8633.13-0.00-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.250.090.0039.43-0.25-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.500.0922.2236.43-0.28-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0911.1129.36-0.00-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0933.3339.81-0.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0962.5072.760.000.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0844.4447.24-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0875.0070.380.000.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.280.0860.0050.220.060.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0842.8655.73-0.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.250.0841.6743.24-0.04-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.080.0022.93-0.00-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0844.4469.77-0.000.03
MississippiSEC0.310.0866.6751.450.100.00
ColumbiaIvy0.250.0862.5064.640.060.02
DetroitHorz0.310.0850.0053.430.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.250.0820.0047.17-0.15-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.080.0032.62-0.00-0.03
CornellIvy0.000.0855.5648.540.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.0844.4447.41-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.080.0019.38-0.00-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0855.5656.150.000.01
PennIvy0.000.0837.5032.38-0.00-0.03
SMUAmer0.000.0866.6770.530.000.03
Holy CrossPat0.250.0857.1452.850.040.00
AkronMAC0.250.0860.0056.480.050.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0890.0065.960.000.03
UMBCAE0.000.0810.0021.35-0.00-0.05
Texas A&MSEC0.280.0877.7866.040.150.03
IUPUISum0.280.0820.0026.66-0.17-0.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0850.0057.760.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0860.0053.940.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.0820.0042.53-0.00-0.01
LehighPat0.250.0842.8651.80-0.040.00
TexasB120.000.0890.0081.780.000.05
USCP120.000.0860.0037.100.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0887.5064.670.000.02
XavierBE0.000.0880.0071.140.000.03
CharlotteCUSA0.500.0855.5665.940.060.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.0870.0071.650.000.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0880.0063.530.000.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0830.0031.51-0.00-0.03
Seton HallBE0.000.0888.8964.060.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.08100.0086.080.000.06
Georgia TechACC0.000.0877.7851.200.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0822.2227.10-0.00-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0810.0018.39-0.00-0.05
Virginia TechACC0.000.0855.5638.250.00-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0642.8639.29-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0671.4372.840.000.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0642.8652.83-0.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3347.11-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0660.0047.810.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0655.5655.850.000.01
FIUCUSA0.500.0650.0054.480.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0015.96-0.00-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0675.0065.380.000.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0666.6753.390.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0666.6773.810.000.03
Murray St.OVC0.000.0650.0058.490.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0637.5051.76-0.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.060.0023.06-0.00-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0620.0033.87-0.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0013.10-0.00-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.560.0662.5078.030.140.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.280.0650.0049.220.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0633.3332.65-0.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.000.0620.0020.57-0.00-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0675.0070.980.000.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0685.7173.700.000.03
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0662.5065.100.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0013.85-0.00-0.04
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0642.8638.69-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0627.2737.98-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0687.5085.930.000.04
YaleIvy0.000.0670.0064.560.000.02
MemphisAmer0.560.0550.0059.030.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.530.050.0038.78-0.53-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0522.2242.30-0.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0522.2230.95-0.00-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0544.4450.93-0.000.00
New HampshireAE0.000.0557.1464.630.000.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0550.0033.140.00-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.250.0536.3647.60-0.07-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0555.5654.360.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0577.7871.340.000.02
ArmyPat0.000.0577.7869.100.000.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0537.5032.05-0.00-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0533.3342.09-0.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0562.5059.380.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.05100.0094.460.000.05
LafayettePat0.000.0575.0069.750.000.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0533.3326.81-0.00-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0557.1447.630.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0575.0050.490.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.280.0562.5064.900.070.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.050.0034.13-0.00-0.02
TCUB120.000.05100.0067.440.000.02
Texas TechB120.000.0587.5047.890.00-0.00
UCLAP120.000.0572.7357.470.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.05100.0070.570.000.02
Washington St.P120.000.0540.0028.86-0.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0590.0067.550.000.02
FloridaSEC0.250.0560.0064.780.050.02
La SalleA100.500.0550.0049.920.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.250.0542.8655.87-0.040.01
TempleAmer0.500.0560.0054.040.100.00
VCUA100.560.0570.0071.110.230.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0550.0037.860.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0511.1130.96-0.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0566.6741.850.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.0566.6767.890.000.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0566.6745.880.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.000.0566.6739.030.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.250.0525.0037.29-0.13-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0528.5727.72-0.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0542.8656.16-0.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0566.6766.860.000.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.050.0011.08-0.00-0.04
Green BayHorz0.250.0571.4377.180.110.03
IPFWSum0.000.0557.1456.130.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0544.4456.62-0.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0562.5053.840.000.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0545.4551.71-0.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0550.0041.450.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0516.6729.59-0.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0583.3363.180.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0520.0039.53-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0520.0020.84-0.00-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0562.5054.950.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.500.0350.0048.280.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.500.0350.0030.140.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0360.0062.380.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.280.0357.1456.000.040.00
DenverSum0.280.0344.4455.06-0.030.00
HofstraCAA0.280.0377.7877.550.150.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0355.5639.260.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0050.190.000.00
TowsonCAA0.280.0366.6751.390.090.00
Ball St.MAC0.280.0333.3347.31-0.09-0.00
BryantNEC0.250.0328.5746.92-0.11-0.00
IonaMAAC0.280.0366.6772.270.090.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0371.4360.170.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0337.5041.09-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0340.0049.29-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.280.0355.5631.620.03-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0350.0051.120.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0366.6755.560.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0322.2230.22-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0366.6757.220.000.00
FurmanSC0.000.0325.0029.22-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.250.0370.0066.510.100.01
LSUSEC0.000.0377.7861.940.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.280.0325.0049.05-0.14-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0337.5037.71-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0340.0065.07-0.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0325.0033.19-0.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0344.4444.67-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.310.0357.1447.350.04-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.250.030.009.06-0.25-0.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0337.5045.72-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.000.0371.4361.160.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0337.5054.91-0.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0357.1445.530.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.310.0355.5655.960.030.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0337.5046.90-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0337.5064.38-0.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0340.0058.50-0.000.00
UtahP120.000.0377.7880.520.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0380.0069.650.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0322.2245.74-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.0375.0067.800.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0375.0069.770.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0314.2944.11-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0350.0045.540.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.250.030.008.21-0.25-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.0333.3338.84-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6776.390.000.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0328.5741.09-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0340.0044.19-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.000.0362.5055.430.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0366.6753.260.000.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0314.2932.21-0.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0322.2227.64-0.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0325.0037.01-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0325.0038.94-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0333.3334.02-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0039.09-0.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0371.4360.450.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.250.0355.5639.850.03-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0325.0047.42-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.000.0333.3338.27-0.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0322.2238.58-0.00-0.01
VMISC0.000.0333.3338.85-0.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0314.2933.61-0.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0333.3351.71-0.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0355.5653.100.000.00