Detroit

Conference:	Horz
Expected RPI:	181.7
Current RPI:	191
Expected SOS:	166
Current SOS:	189
Current Record:	11-12
Expected Record:	14-15
Current Conf Record:	7-6
Expected Conf Record:	9-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	3.38%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-2
Current OOC Record:	4-6
Expected OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC RPI:	210
Expected OOC SOS:	161

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-12	133.6	1.40%
16-13	149.5	10.86%
15-14	167.5	28.28%
14-15	186.1	33.71%
13-16	203.6	19.58%
12-17	219.8	5.63%
11-18	236.2	0.53%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Detroit.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-14	Notre Dame (66.5)	BE	A	59-53	L	0%	0.0
11-21	George Washington (196.4)	A10	N	86-73	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Bowling Green (155.1)	MAC	A	67-61	L	0%	0.0
11-23	Austin Peay (200.2)	OVC	N	94-93	W	100%	0.0
11-26	Akron (49.0)	MAC	A	81-63	L	0%	0.0
12-1	Youngstown St. (163.1)	Horz	H	61-64	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Cleveland St. (52.0)	Horz	H	61-66	L	0%	0.0
12-5	St. John's (151.1)	BE	H	69-63	W	100%	0.0
12-8	Western Michigan (174.1)	MAC	H	92-81	W	100%	0.0
12-11	Alabama (30.4)	SEC	A	62-54	L	0%	0.0
12-17	Mississippi St. (41.7)	SEC	H	75-80	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Alabama St. (301.5)	SWAC	H	80-56	W	100%	0.0
12-29	Illinois Chicago (290.5)	Horz	A	63-59	L	0%	0.0
12-31	Loyola Chicago (310.1)	Horz	A	54-65	W	100%	0.0
1-6	Valparaiso (102.8)	Horz	H	71-73	L	0%	0.0
1-8	Butler (143.2)	Horz	H	76-65	W	100%	0.0
1-12	Wisconsin Green Bay (187.0)	Horz	A	73-80	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Wisconsin Milwaukee (127.3)	Horz	A	84-74	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Wright St. (216.3)	Horz	H	69-53	W	100%	0.0
1-25	Loyola Chicago (310.1)	Horz	H	67-52	W	100%	0.0
1-27	Illinois Chicago (290.5)	Horz	H	70-66	W	100%	0.0
2-2	Valparaiso (102.8)	Horz	A	78-73	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Butler (143.2)	Horz	A	61-65	W	100%	0.0
2-10	Wisconsin Milwaukee (127.3)	Horz	H	0-0		54%	1.1
2-12	Wisconsin Green Bay (187.0)	Horz	H	0-0		71%	6.0
2-15	Wright St. (216.3)	Horz	A	0-0		55%	1.5
2-18	James Madison (251.6)	CAA	H	0-0		80%	9.0
2-23	Cleveland St. (52.0)	Horz	A	0-0		18%	-10.2
2-25	Youngstown St. (163.1)	Horz	A	0-0		44%	-1.6

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Detroit's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Detroit's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Detroit.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Detroit	Horz	26.53	26.40	46.53	48.11	-1.84	-1.00
Valparaiso	Horz	5.15	4.48	61.90	60.92	1.23	0.98
Youngstown St.	Horz	3.02	4.47	47.37	49.42	-0.16	-0.05
Cleveland St.	Horz	2.98	4.45	80.95	79.66	1.84	2.64
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	3.12	4.45	54.55	56.59	0.28	0.59
Butler	Horz	5.05	4.42	54.55	54.43	0.46	0.39
Wright St.	Horz	3.17	4.42	43.48	41.92	-0.41	-0.71
Loyola Chicago	Horz	4.99	4.41	21.05	22.93	-2.89	-2.39
Illinois Chicago	Horz	4.99	4.41	27.78	28.46	-2.22	-1.90
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	3.00	4.41	36.84	41.37	-0.79	-0.76
Akron	MAC	2.47	2.02	66.67	66.80	0.82	0.68
Bowling Green	MAC	2.46	1.93	45.00	47.00	-0.25	-0.12
Austin Peay	OVC	2.27	1.85	34.78	37.21	-0.69	-0.47
Western Michigan	MAC	2.27	1.84	42.86	44.44	-0.32	-0.20
George Washington	A10	2.27	1.81	31.82	29.74	-0.83	-0.73
Mississippi St.	SEC	2.27	1.81	77.27	71.41	1.24	0.78
Alabama	SEC	2.22	1.78	66.67	68.03	0.74	0.64
James Madison	CAA	0.05	1.75	40.00	40.84	-0.01	-0.32
Notre Dame	BE	2.17	1.75	63.64	61.41	0.59	0.40
St. John's	BE	2.17	1.75	45.45	41.62	-0.20	-0.29
Alabama St.	SWAC	2.17	1.72	31.58	38.68	-0.80	-0.39
Toledo	MAC	0.41	0.36	38.10	40.81	-0.10	-0.07
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.35	0.30	5.26	7.30	-0.31	-0.26
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.26	0.24	40.91	38.38	-0.05	-0.06
Duquesne	A10	0.30	0.24	59.09	56.35	0.05	0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.30	0.24	28.57	34.20	-0.13	-0.07
Kent St.	MAC	0.20	0.23	71.43	69.05	0.09	0.09
Buffalo	MAC	0.16	0.21	68.42	66.45	0.06	0.07
DePaul	BE	0.20	0.20	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.03
Miami OH	MAC	0.20	0.20	30.00	34.15	-0.08	-0.06
Ohio	MAC	0.20	0.20	81.82	77.20	0.12	0.11
Marquette	BE	0.20	0.18	79.17	75.98	0.11	0.09
Ball St.	MAC	0.19	0.17	55.00	57.41	0.02	0.03
Cincinnati	BE	0.19	0.17	69.57	65.47	0.08	0.05
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.15	0.15	33.33	34.47	-0.05	-0.05
Evansville	MVC	0.25	0.15	45.45	44.02	-0.02	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.10	0.15	68.00	70.03	0.04	0.06
West Virginia	BE	0.14	0.14	65.22	65.17	0.04	0.04
Wisconsin	B10	0.10	0.12	75.00	73.97	0.05	0.06
Dayton	A10	0.16	0.12	60.87	60.96	0.03	0.03
Idaho	WAC	0.10	0.12	47.62	51.08	-0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.12	56.52	54.22	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.12	31.82	42.13	-0.04	-0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.10	0.12	19.05	25.52	-0.06	-0.06
Kansas St.	B12	0.20	0.12	72.73	68.28	0.09	0.04
IUPUI	Sum	0.14	0.12	34.78	35.50	-0.04	-0.03
Fordham	A10	0.20	0.12	40.91	34.50	-0.04	-0.04
Oakland	Sum	0.19	0.12	48.00	50.21	-0.01	0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.14	0.12	86.96	85.46	0.10	0.08
Arizona	P12	0.19	0.12	66.67	68.55	0.06	0.04
Charlotte	A10	0.09	0.11	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.19	0.11	65.22	60.58	0.06	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.15	0.11	45.45	41.20	-0.01	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.09	0.11	82.61	77.63	0.06	0.06
Gonzaga	WCC	0.19	0.11	81.82	81.49	0.12	0.07
Rhode Island	A10	0.10	0.11	20.83	20.60	-0.06	-0.07
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.15	0.11	69.57	65.87	0.06	0.04
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.15	0.11	80.00	78.06	0.09	0.06
Arkansas	SEC	0.10	0.11	69.57	65.15	0.04	0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.11	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.00	0.11	79.17	78.10	0.00	0.06
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.11	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.03
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.10	0.11	59.09	57.28	0.02	0.02
Louisville	BE	0.19	0.11	78.26	72.66	0.10	0.05
Mississippi	SEC	0.10	0.11	63.64	56.71	0.03	0.02
South Florida	BE	0.14	0.11	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.10	0.11	80.95	77.38	0.06	0.06
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.09	61.90	63.52	0.01	0.03
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.09	17.65	27.10	-0.07	-0.04
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.10	0.09	17.39	24.41	-0.07	-0.05
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.09	24.00	24.86	-0.02	-0.05
Canisius	MAAC	0.10	0.09	17.39	19.81	-0.07	-0.05
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.16	0.09	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.10	0.09	76.19	72.91	0.05	0.04
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.09	45.45	46.99	-0.00	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.10	0.09	77.27	75.06	0.06	0.04
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.14	0.09	83.33	84.76	0.09	0.06
North Florida	ASun	0.09	0.09	45.83	46.68	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.10	0.09	60.00	59.06	0.02	0.02
Xavier	A10	0.14	0.09	65.22	63.74	0.04	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.14	0.09	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.14	0.09	75.00	75.78	0.07	0.04
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.09	70.83	68.82	0.02	0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.10	0.09	26.32	29.79	-0.05	-0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.09	0.09	45.45	44.66	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.09	0.09	4.35	9.66	-0.08	-0.07
Kentucky	SEC	0.10	0.08	95.83	92.57	0.09	0.07
Syracuse	BE	0.14	0.08	95.83	92.01	0.13	0.07
Connecticut	BE	0.14	0.08	68.18	63.99	0.05	0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.08	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.08	12.50	13.44	-0.04	-0.06
Oregon St.	P12	0.11	0.06	63.64	63.16	0.03	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.06	41.67	38.67	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.05	0.06	33.33	35.26	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.06	21.74	22.76	-0.03	-0.03
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.06	42.86	39.66	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.06	81.82	76.80	0.03	0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.11	0.06	52.63	48.41	0.01	-0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.06	76.19	70.73	0.03	0.03
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.06	16.67	23.02	-0.04	-0.03
Chicago St.	GWC	0.10	0.06	4.76	9.95	-0.09	-0.05
Furman	SC	0.10	0.06	47.62	48.83	-0.00	-0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.06	15.00	15.73	-0.04	-0.04
Illinois	B10	0.10	0.06	72.73	64.43	0.05	0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.06	35.00	40.78	-0.02	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.06	45.00	46.13	-0.01	-0.00
Florida International	SB	0.11	0.06	33.33	37.16	-0.04	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.10	0.06	34.78	38.42	-0.03	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.10	0.06	59.09	59.72	0.02	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.10	0.06	77.27	77.67	0.06	0.03
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.06	43.48	44.25	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.00	0.06	54.55	54.30	0.00	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.09	0.06	40.00	41.30	-0.02	-0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.09	0.06	35.00	35.31	-0.03	-0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.00	0.06	59.09	57.76	0.00	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.06	62.50	61.50	0.01	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.10	0.06	55.00	54.48	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.06	47.37	42.16	-0.00	-0.01
Belmont	ASun	0.05	0.06	69.57	73.28	0.02	0.03
Boston University	AE	0.05	0.06	48.00	51.88	-0.00	0.00
California	P12	0.09	0.06	75.00	74.61	0.05	0.03
Chattanooga	SC	0.09	0.06	27.27	35.02	-0.04	-0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.09	0.06	34.78	38.77	-0.03	-0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.00	0.06	34.78	35.20	-0.00	-0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.06	100.00	94.55	0.05	0.05
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.06	80.77	80.75	0.03	0.04
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.09	0.06	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.06	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.00
Stanford	P12	0.09	0.06	69.57	68.29	0.04	0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.09	0.06	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.09	0.06	35.29	39.85	-0.03	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.10	0.06	86.36	83.09	0.07	0.04
Maryland	ACC	0.10	0.06	59.09	50.82	0.02	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.06	40.91	39.56	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.00	0.06	76.00	72.50	0.00	0.03
Georgia St.	CAA	0.00	0.06	66.67	69.69	0.00	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.06	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.00	0.06	60.00	58.29	0.00	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.06	60.87	58.16	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.05	0.06	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.06	65.22	63.74	0.01	0.02
Texas A&M	B12	0.09	0.06	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.00
Towson	CAA	0.00	0.06	4.00	5.26	-0.00	-0.05
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.06	45.45	46.08	-0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.03	47.06	50.75	-0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.03	18.18	22.22	-0.03	-0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.05	0.03	57.14	60.75	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.03	34.78	34.48	-0.02	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.03	37.50	38.33	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	62.65	0.02	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.03	19.05	22.37	-0.03	-0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	39.13	42.12	-0.01	-0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.03	90.48	87.91	0.04	0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.03	79.17	80.10	0.03	0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.03	17.39	22.00	-0.03	-0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.03	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.00
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.03	77.27	73.45	0.03	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.03	20.00	19.96	-0.03	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.58	0.02	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.03	69.57	71.51	0.02	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.03	33.33	37.25	-0.02	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.03	45.45	40.70	-0.00	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.00	0.03	62.50	62.49	0.00	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.03	26.32	29.71	-0.02	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.03	73.91	75.49	0.02	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.03	34.78	32.06	-0.02	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.03	60.87	59.76	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.03	40.91	39.82	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	82.61	80.42	0.03	0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.03	34.78	34.61	-0.02	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.03	90.91	83.85	0.04	0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.03	8.33	10.86	-0.04	-0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.03	14.29	17.17	-0.03	-0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.00	0.03	47.83	50.65	-0.00	0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.00	0.03	52.38	52.86	0.00	0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.03	36.36	39.72	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.00	0.03	36.36	38.48	-0.00	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.03	73.91	74.91	0.02	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.03	8.70	8.99	-0.04	-0.02
Maine	AE	0.05	0.03	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.05	0.03	13.64	16.35	-0.03	-0.02
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.03	91.30	87.18	0.04	0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.00	0.03	39.13	36.10	-0.00	-0.01
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.00	0.03	54.55	56.84	0.00	0.00
Rider	MAAC	0.00	0.03	37.50	38.52	-0.00	-0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.03	44.00	45.89	-0.01	-0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.03	52.38	52.87	0.00	0.00
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	55.95	0.01	0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.00	0.03	31.82	31.31	-0.00	-0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.03	19.05	24.61	-0.03	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.00	0.03	9.52	11.44	-0.00	-0.02
Troy	SB	0.05	0.03	28.57	30.17	-0.02	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.00	0.03	54.55	56.79	0.00	0.00
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00