live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Detroit

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:289.0
Current RPI:289
Expected SOS:165
Current SOS:165
Current Record:7-23
Expected Record:7-23
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-8
Current OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC RPI:321
Expected OOC SOS:133



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-23289.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Detroit.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14East Tennessee St. (55.0)SCA107-78L0%0.0
11-18Illinois (62.0)B10A89-69L0%0.0
11-20Florida St. (14.0)ACCA100-71L0%0.0
11-23New Hampshire (127.0)AEA86-70L0%0.0
11-26Manhattan (263.0)MAACH81-84L0%0.0
11-30Eastern Michigan (174.0)MACH61-87L0%0.0
12-3Murray St. (230.0)OVCA86-76L0%0.0
12-7Toledo (155.0)MACA73-65L0%0.0
12-10Bowling Green (225.0)MACA74-61L0%0.0
12-17Western Kentucky (226.0)CUSAH85-79W100%0.0
12-22Fort Wayne (178.0)SumH86-93L0%0.0
12-29Northern Kentucky (87.0)HorzH70-81L0%0.0
12-31Wright St. (115.0)HorzH72-85L0%0.0
1-6Illinois Chicago (249.0)HorzA78-64L0%0.0
1-8Valparaiso (71.0)HorzA81-74L0%0.0
1-13Oakland (109.0)HorzA88-93W100%0.0
1-16Youngstown St. (251.0)HorzH87-71W100%0.0
1-20Wright St. (115.0)HorzA106-88L0%0.0
1-22Northern Kentucky (87.0)HorzA101-87L0%0.0
1-27Milwaukee (256.0)HorzH69-73L0%0.0
1-29Green Bay (157.0)HorzH93-92W100%0.0
2-2Cleveland St. (260.0)HorzA90-73L0%0.0
2-4Youngstown St. (251.0)HorzA80-90W100%0.0
2-10Oakland (109.0)HorzH80-89L0%0.0
2-17Illinois Chicago (249.0)HorzH69-74L0%0.0
2-19Valparaiso (71.0)HorzH63-83L0%0.0
2-21Cleveland St. (260.0)HorzH91-83W100%0.0
2-24Milwaukee (256.0)HorzA74-81W100%0.0
2-26Green Bay (157.0)HorzA89-81L0%0.0
3-3Milwaukee (256.0)HorzH60-85L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Detroit's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Detroit's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Detroit.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DetroitHorz26.3926.3923.2423.24-14.12-14.12
MilwaukeeHorz6.066.0625.8125.81-2.93-2.93
Northern KentuckyHorz4.464.4666.6766.671.491.49
Youngstown St.Horz4.444.4436.6736.67-1.18-1.18
Illinois ChicagoHorz4.384.3837.9337.93-1.06-1.06
Green BayHorz4.374.3755.5655.560.490.49
Wright St.Horz4.354.3557.1457.140.620.62
OaklandHorz4.324.3275.0075.002.162.16
ValparaisoHorz4.324.3272.4172.411.941.94
Cleveland St.Horz4.294.2925.0025.00-2.15-2.15
ToledoMAC1.971.9748.3948.39-0.06-0.06
Bowling GreenMAC1.911.9136.6736.67-0.51-0.51
Murray St.OVC1.811.8143.3343.33-0.24-0.24
Eastern MichiganMAC1.751.7539.2939.29-0.37-0.37
IllinoisB101.741.7453.3353.330.120.12
East Tennessee St.SC1.741.7477.4277.420.950.95
Florida St.ACC1.721.7275.0075.000.860.86
ManhattanMAAC1.691.6929.0329.03-0.71-0.71
Fort WayneSum1.671.6755.5655.560.190.19
New HampshireAE1.671.6757.1457.140.240.24
Western KentuckyCUSA1.671.6748.3948.39-0.05-0.05
OhioMAC0.320.3263.3363.330.080.08
Central MichiganMAC0.280.2846.6746.67-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.250.2548.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.250.2530.0030.00-0.10-0.10
Kent St.MAC0.250.2561.7661.760.060.06
Northern IllinoisMAC0.220.2241.3841.38-0.04-0.04
AkronMAC0.220.2275.7675.760.110.11
Ball St.MAC0.220.2262.5062.500.050.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.210.2153.3353.330.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.190.1932.1432.14-0.07-0.07
South Dakota St.Sum0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
BelmontOVC0.180.1877.7877.780.100.10
Chicago St.WAC0.160.1610.3410.34-0.13-0.13
CanisiusMAAC0.160.1654.5554.550.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.160.1644.4444.44-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
Michigan St.B100.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
West VirginiaB120.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
Western IllinoisSum0.130.1323.0823.08-0.07-0.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.130.1387.8887.880.100.10
DePaulBE0.130.1328.1228.12-0.06-0.06
JacksonvilleASun0.130.1346.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
IUPUISum0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.120.1221.4321.43-0.07-0.07
VermontAE0.110.1184.8584.850.080.08
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.1117.8617.86-0.07-0.07
UMKCWAC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
Penn St.B100.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.110.1112.9012.90-0.08-0.08
BuffaloMAC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.110.1180.0080.000.060.06
UTSACUSA0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
NiagaraMAAC0.100.1030.3030.30-0.04-0.04
SamfordSC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
UMBCAE0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
WisconsinB100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
PurdueB100.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
AmericanPat0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
BYUWCC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
MichiganB100.080.0868.5768.570.030.03
TempleAmer0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
FIUCUSA0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
MarshallCUSA0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
MercerSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
IonaMAAC0.080.0864.7164.710.020.02
MemphisAmer0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
MontanaBSky0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
AlbanyAE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
MaineAE0.060.0619.3519.35-0.04-0.04
PacificWCC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
IndianaB100.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
DuquesneA100.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
NevadaMWC0.060.0682.3582.350.040.04
North DakotaBSky0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
North FloridaASun0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.056.906.90-0.05-0.05
Cal PolyBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
IowaB100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
VMISC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
DukeACC0.050.0577.1477.140.030.03
Miami FLACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
BryantNEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
SMUAmer0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00