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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Detroit

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:205.0
Current RPI:205
Expected SOS:145
Current SOS:145
Current Record:13-18
Expected Record:13-18
Current Conf Record:8-10
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-5
Current OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC RPI:154
Expected OOC SOS:50



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-18205.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Detroit.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Oregon (27.0)P12A83-66L0%0.0
11-20Michigan (81.0)B10A71-62L0%0.0
11-22South Alabama (275.0)SBH66-53W100%0.0
11-24Maryland Eastern Shore (195.0)MEACN69-55W100%0.0
11-25Toledo (79.0)MACA79-82W100%0.0
11-30Bowling Green (109.0)MACH63-64L0%0.0
12-6South Florida (273.0)AmerH67-57W100%0.0
12-13Wichita St. (17.0)MVCH68-77L0%0.0
12-17UCF (257.0)AmerA75-70L0%0.0
12-20Rhode Island (66.0)A10A69-55L0%0.0
12-23Arizona St. (102.0)P12A93-54L0%0.0
12-30Oral Roberts (163.0)SumH73-77L0%0.0
1-2Wright St. (264.0)HorzA70-57L0%0.0
1-4Milwaukee (206.0)HorzH83-67W100%0.0
1-10Oakland (155.0)HorzH74-54W100%0.0
1-14Illinois Chicago (297.0)HorzA68-69W100%0.0
1-17Green Bay (54.0)HorzH64-70L0%0.0
1-19Northeastern (86.0)CAAA69-81W100%0.0
1-23Cleveland St. (127.0)HorzA70-66L0%0.0
1-26Wright St. (264.0)HorzH53-64L0%0.0
1-29Youngstown St. (291.0)HorzH93-87W100%0.0
1-31Milwaukee (206.0)HorzA78-74L0%0.0
2-4Valparaiso (50.0)HorzA78-70L0%0.0
2-8Illinois Chicago (297.0)HorzH73-83L0%0.0
2-13Cleveland St. (127.0)HorzH66-65W100%0.0
2-15Oakland (155.0)HorzA83-78L0%0.0
2-18Green Bay (54.0)HorzA96-76L0%0.0
2-21Youngstown St. (291.0)HorzA70-83W100%0.0
2-25Valparaiso (50.0)HorzH63-60W100%0.0
3-3Youngstown St. (291.0)HorzH77-67W100%0.0
3-6Cleveland St. (127.0)HorzN70-53L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Detroit's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Detroit's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Detroit.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DetroitHorz26.4826.4841.6141.61-4.45-4.45
Cleveland St.Horz5.765.7651.8551.850.210.21
Youngstown St.Horz5.655.6530.7730.77-2.17-2.17
Illinois ChicagoHorz4.294.2923.3323.33-2.29-2.29
ValparaisoHorz4.234.2385.7185.713.023.02
Green BayHorz4.204.2071.4371.431.801.80
OaklandHorz4.174.1746.4346.43-0.30-0.30
Wright St.Horz4.174.1725.9325.93-2.01-2.01
MilwaukeeHorz4.124.1242.3142.31-0.63-0.63
Bowling GreenMAC1.801.8065.5265.520.560.56
ToledoMAC1.801.8062.5062.500.450.45
UCFAmer1.721.7235.7135.71-0.49-0.49
OregonP121.711.7171.8871.880.750.75
South FloridaAmer1.701.7026.6726.67-0.79-0.79
Oral RobertsSum1.671.6751.7251.720.060.06
Arizona St.P121.661.6651.6151.610.050.05
MichiganB101.641.6446.6746.67-0.11-0.11
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.611.6158.0658.060.260.26
NortheasternCAA1.611.6169.7069.700.640.64
Rhode IslandA101.611.6168.9768.970.610.61
South AlabamaSB1.611.6133.3333.33-0.54-0.54
Wichita St.MVC1.611.6186.6786.671.181.18
Eastern MichiganMAC0.290.2956.6756.670.040.04
Kent St.MAC0.240.2464.5264.520.070.07
Georgia St.SB0.210.2171.8871.880.090.09
ArizonaP120.200.2091.1891.180.170.17
South DakotaSum0.190.1948.3948.39-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
DrakeMVC0.190.1926.6726.67-0.09-0.09
Western IllinoisSum0.180.1823.0823.08-0.10-0.10
SMUAmer0.180.1881.2581.250.120.12
Chicago St.WAC0.180.1817.2417.24-0.12-0.12
Central MichiganMAC0.180.1871.4371.430.080.08
Ball St.MAC0.180.1820.6920.69-0.11-0.11
VCUA100.180.1874.2974.290.090.09
IUPUISum0.160.1632.2632.26-0.06-0.06
WisconsinB100.160.1691.1891.180.130.13
Illinois St.MVC0.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
EvansvilleMVC0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
UMKCWAC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
MemphisAmer0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.130.1370.9770.970.060.06
Arkansas Little RockSB0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.130.1375.7675.760.070.07
Southern IllinoisMVC0.130.1334.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Oregon St.P120.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
UtahP120.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
BelmontOVC0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
Western CarolinaSC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
DePaulBE0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
HoustonAmer0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
TempleAmer0.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
TulaneAmer0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.110.1148.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.110.1158.8258.820.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.110.1167.8667.860.040.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.1124.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Michigan St.B100.110.1167.6567.650.040.04
Missouri St.MVC0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
MarylandB100.100.1081.8281.820.070.07
AkronMAC0.100.1058.8258.820.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
BradleyMVC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
NorthwesternB100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
ColoradoP120.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
USCP120.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.080.0828.1228.12-0.04-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
George MasonA100.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
IonaMAAC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.080.0890.6290.620.070.07
George WashingtonA100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Miami FLACC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Saint LouisA100.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
OhioMAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
MassachusettsA100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
NJITind0.080.0856.0056.000.010.01
RichmondA100.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
CaliforniaP120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
StanfordP120.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
UCLAP120.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
WashingtonP120.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Washington St.P120.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
DelawareCAA0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
AuburnSEC0.060.0641.1841.18-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
FIUCUSA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
DenverSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
La SalleA100.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
MaineAE0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.050.0583.3383.330.040.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
NebraskaB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0590.9190.910.040.04
RutgersB100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Texas St.SB0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0594.1294.120.050.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0574.0774.070.020.02
NavyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0527.2727.27-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
IndianaB100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
IowaB100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
PurdueB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
ColgatePat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0375.8675.860.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UMBCAE0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01