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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Detroit

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:297.3
Current RPI:292
Expected SOS:208
Current SOS:172
Current Record:4-15
Expected Record:8-21
Current Conf Record:2-6
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-8
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:240
Expected OOC SOS:47



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-16226.00.01%
12-17230.90.14%
11-18248.01.28%
10-19262.15.93%
9-20277.716.27%
8-21292.426.47%
7-22305.527.11%
6-23317.116.34%
5-24326.05.68%
4-25333.00.76%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Detroit.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Virginia Tech (82.6)ACCA111-79L0%0.0
11-18Seattle (199.6)WACN71-102L0%0.0
11-19Houston Baptist (334.4)SlndN109-116W100%0.0
11-22Saint Louis (176.5)A10A70-72W100%0.0
11-28Fort Wayne (189.6)SumA91-82L0%0.0
12-3UCLA (63.4)P12A106-73L0%0.0
12-6Toledo (70.4)MACH86-89L0%0.0
12-9Western Michigan (163.8)MACH79-87L0%0.0
12-16Michigan (37.6)B10N90-58L0%0.0
12-19East Tennessee St. (62.0)SCH73-81L0%0.0
12-22Murray St. (87.3)OVCH72-81L0%0.0
12-28Green Bay (325.1)HorzA95-83L0%0.0
12-30Milwaukee (242.2)HorzA87-79L0%0.0
1-5Wright St. (110.8)HorzH73-80L0%0.0
1-7Northern Kentucky (90.0)HorzH54-56L0%0.0
1-10Cleveland St. (322.4)HorzH85-84W100%0.0
1-12Youngstown St. (314.7)HorzH93-91W100%0.0
1-16IUPUI (300.2)HorzA81-66L0%0.0
1-20Oakland (137.4)HorzH86-92L0%0.0
1-26Wright St. (110.8)HorzA0-013%-12.4
1-28Northern Kentucky (90.0)HorzA0-05%-18.4
2-2IUPUI (300.2)HorzH0-061%3.0
2-4Illinois Chicago (259.5)HorzH0-047%-0.9
2-9Oakland (137.4)HorzA0-011%-13.6
2-14Cleveland St. (322.4)HorzA0-040%-2.7
2-16Youngstown St. (314.7)HorzA0-044%-1.6
2-19Illinois Chicago (259.5)HorzA0-025%-7.3
2-22Milwaukee (242.2)HorzH0-047%-0.8
2-24Green Bay (325.1)HorzH0-059%2.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Detroit's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Detroit's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Detroit.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DetroitHorz26.3326.4018.9524.75-16.35-13.33
OaklandHorz3.264.5060.0063.140.651.18
Cleveland St.Horz3.194.4721.0522.88-1.85-2.42
Wright St.Horz3.194.4766.6767.461.061.56
Northern KentuckyHorz3.184.4664.7171.340.941.90
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.614.4442.1144.68-0.10-0.47
MilwaukeeHorz3.194.4342.1144.90-0.50-0.45
Youngstown St.Horz3.034.4122.2223.18-1.69-2.36
Green BayHorz3.184.4021.0524.68-1.84-2.23
IUPUIHorz3.114.4023.5326.64-1.64-2.05
Western MichiganMAC2.971.9850.0050.530.000.02
ToledoMAC2.911.9664.7166.590.850.65
East Tennessee St.SC2.851.8876.4778.411.511.07
Fort WayneSum2.771.8750.0049.830.00-0.01
Saint LouisA102.921.8450.0048.540.00-0.05
Murray St.OVC2.771.8168.7575.021.040.91
Virginia TechACC2.781.7866.6756.330.930.23
MichiganB102.701.7575.0069.731.350.69
SeattleWAC2.701.7555.5652.820.300.10
UCLAP122.691.7563.1660.740.710.38
Houston BaptistSlnd2.701.756.2520.06-2.36-1.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.130.3041.1839.16-0.02-0.06
Kent St.MAC0.350.2344.4444.92-0.04-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.130.2346.6746.97-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.360.2171.4374.660.150.11
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.220.1929.4133.93-0.09-0.06
Western IllinoisSum0.210.1942.8635.24-0.03-0.06
Morehead St.OVC0.220.1923.5328.69-0.11-0.08
Ball St.MAC0.150.1861.1158.700.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.220.1847.0641.41-0.01-0.03
WisconsinB100.200.1850.0046.300.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.140.1878.9574.190.080.09
KentuckySEC0.280.1873.6867.970.130.06
AkronMAC0.290.1847.0644.91-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.270.1785.0083.200.190.11
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.220.1636.8432.76-0.06-0.06
South DakotaSum0.200.1573.6872.380.100.07
JacksonvilleASun0.200.1533.3333.77-0.07-0.05
Chicago St.WAC0.210.150.003.07-0.21-0.14
Central MichiganMAC0.140.1562.5058.690.030.03
Washington St.P120.210.1247.3741.44-0.01-0.02
PurdueB100.140.1290.4888.370.110.09
Delaware St.MEAC0.140.120.009.09-0.14-0.10
IndianaB100.200.1257.8950.710.030.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.1258.8249.760.01-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.130.1230.0032.52-0.05-0.04
DePaulBE0.070.1242.1134.31-0.01-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.1250.0051.640.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.140.1252.6343.110.01-0.02
SyracuseACC0.210.1168.4261.230.080.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0931.5832.72-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.140.0910.0019.63-0.11-0.06
StetsonASun0.140.0933.3336.93-0.05-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.150.0942.1143.51-0.02-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.150.0950.0051.380.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0947.3746.09-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0929.4133.20-0.03-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.140.0943.7540.93-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.070.0935.2942.76-0.02-0.01
CaliforniaP120.140.0936.8431.12-0.04-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.150.0972.2274.930.070.04
ButlerBE0.140.0966.6763.070.050.02
Southern MissCUSA0.130.0941.1838.47-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.200.0970.0061.440.080.02
The CitadelSC0.070.0918.7518.36-0.04-0.06
OhioMAC0.070.0947.0648.41-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.140.0937.5045.24-0.04-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.130.0989.4785.550.100.06
Oregon St.P120.140.0957.8950.840.020.00
RutgersB100.130.0955.0046.690.01-0.01
IowaB100.130.0947.6244.02-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.140.0884.2179.750.090.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.140.0821.0544.26-0.08-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0644.4446.000.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.070.0665.0057.880.020.01
DenverSum0.070.0633.3336.48-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.070.0680.9583.260.050.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0670.0068.220.030.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0625.0028.01-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0644.4450.31-0.010.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0672.2272.980.000.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0626.3231.50-0.04-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0657.8953.190.010.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0670.0071.230.030.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.067.6920.090.00-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0644.4446.02-0.01-0.00
IonaMAAC0.070.0660.0064.110.010.02
James MadisonCAA0.070.0625.0028.24-0.04-0.03
LamarSlnd0.080.0650.0054.890.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0628.5731.26-0.03-0.02
MemphisAmer0.070.0665.0058.540.020.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0672.2258.920.030.01
MissouriSEC0.070.0666.6763.200.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0683.3384.240.050.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0643.7549.13-0.01-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0668.4263.960.030.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.067.6923.280.00-0.03
UMBCAE0.070.0655.5655.540.010.01
UMKCWAC0.070.0621.0524.75-0.04-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0645.0045.03-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0666.6766.020.000.02
VermontAE0.070.0675.0077.850.040.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.150.0655.0052.470.010.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0645.0049.29-0.01-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.150.0670.0060.470.060.01
UC RiversideBW0.130.0617.6523.86-0.09-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0661.9063.140.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0622.2228.59-0.04-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.000.0621.4326.350.00-0.03
ElonCAA0.070.0652.6351.080.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0638.8944.08-0.02-0.01
FIUCUSA0.070.0635.2935.54-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.070.0666.6768.540.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0638.8940.78-0.02-0.01
Iowa St.B120.070.0661.1147.220.01-0.00
MercerSC0.070.0644.4454.86-0.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0670.0068.300.030.02
Montana St.BSky0.070.0650.0047.660.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0643.7554.110.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0658.8257.140.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0657.1460.410.010.01
SamfordSC0.070.0627.7832.66-0.03-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.150.0661.1151.910.030.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0668.7567.600.030.02
Utah St.MWC0.070.0645.0045.49-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0638.8935.37-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0668.4270.810.030.02
WoffordSC0.000.0668.7563.690.000.02
VMISC0.070.0625.0024.15-0.04-0.03
FordhamA100.070.0631.5829.06-0.03-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0627.7831.11-0.03-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0652.3848.530.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.070.0660.0053.720.010.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.069.5217.90-0.05-0.04
DaytonA100.000.0647.3750.940.000.00
DuquesneA100.070.0670.0058.090.030.01
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0642.1132.47-0.01-0.02
La SalleA100.070.0640.0042.69-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.060.0670.0065.250.030.02
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0657.1453.050.010.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0655.0050.330.000.00
Ohio St.B100.060.0680.9576.520.040.03
OregonP120.070.0665.0063.850.020.02
RichmondA100.070.0631.5834.36-0.03-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0666.6768.730.000.02
StanfordP120.070.0655.0050.370.010.00
USCP120.000.0671.4368.280.000.02
UtahP120.070.0663.1659.710.020.01
VCUA100.060.0660.0059.700.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.060.0680.0075.060.040.03
DukeACC0.000.0689.4785.210.000.04
LouisvilleACC0.070.0678.9569.790.040.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0677.7870.480.000.02
TowsonCAA0.060.0663.1665.970.020.02
VirginiaACC0.070.0694.7486.140.060.04
AuburnSEC0.080.0389.4777.000.060.02
LibertyBSth0.070.0350.0054.190.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0352.6355.290.000.00
MaristMAAC0.080.0321.0522.02-0.04-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0372.2274.710.030.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0335.2940.48-0.02-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0352.9452.650.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0338.8946.05-0.02-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0336.8444.11-0.02-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0316.6724.91-0.05-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.037.1414.820.00-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0368.4254.090.030.00
PortlandWCC0.070.0327.7827.28-0.03-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0390.4888.960.060.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0342.1146.09-0.01-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0352.9455.030.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0380.0078.850.000.02
Texas St.SB0.080.0357.8950.210.010.00
UTSACUSA0.080.0341.1839.65-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0336.8435.57-0.02-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0333.3337.23-0.03-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0366.6765.370.020.01
IdahoBSky0.080.0364.7166.850.020.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0327.7834.50-0.03-0.01
TulsaAmer0.080.0355.0053.320.010.00
XavierBE0.070.0385.7180.080.050.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0310.5316.75-0.05-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.0380.0078.940.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0378.9576.130.000.02
CampbellBSth0.070.0347.0647.41-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.070.0333.3333.23-0.02-0.01
CreightonBE0.070.0375.0070.700.030.01
DavidsonA100.070.0358.8261.450.010.01
George MasonA100.070.0345.0041.30-0.01-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0345.0043.480.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.070.0378.9572.990.040.01
IllinoisB100.060.0347.3744.27-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0338.8943.43-0.02-0.00
LSUSEC0.060.0361.1153.170.010.00
MarshallCUSA0.070.0368.4263.650.030.01
MassachusettsA100.070.0350.0046.810.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0363.6457.630.000.00
NebraskaB100.060.0366.6759.820.020.01
North FloridaASun0.060.0331.5835.15-0.02-0.01
PennIvy0.070.0364.7162.720.020.01
Penn St.B100.000.0361.9055.760.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.070.0383.3381.430.050.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0327.7831.71-0.03-0.01
TexasB120.060.0363.1657.630.020.00
UC IrvineBW0.070.0330.0039.93-0.03-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0365.0054.670.000.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0384.2173.240.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.070.0373.6869.640.030.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0315.7920.91-0.05-0.02
MississippiSEC0.070.0352.6345.860.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0355.5656.740.010.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0365.0056.340.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0363.1661.020.000.01
PittsburghACC0.070.0340.0030.87-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0327.7827.10-0.03-0.01
RadfordBSth0.070.0357.8958.850.010.00
Wake ForestACC0.070.0342.1140.46-0.01-0.01