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Through games of Feb 6, 2016.


Detroit

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:208.5
Current RPI:208
Expected SOS:201
Current SOS:209
Current Record:10-11
Expected Record:12-15
Current Conf Record:6-6
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-2
Current OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:181
Expected OOC SOS:135



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-11146.30.06%
15-12160.51.51%
14-13178.012.33%
13-14196.531.77%
12-15215.635.34%
11-16236.116.34%
10-17258.62.64%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Detroit.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-20Pittsburgh (45.4)ACCA95-79L0%0.0
11-28Oral Roberts (151.4)SumA100-95L0%0.0
12-2Vanderbilt (53.3)SECA102-52L0%0.0
12-5Northeastern (148.7)CAAH76-73W100%0.0
12-9Toledo (147.3)MACH75-72W100%0.0
12-12Bowling Green (192.9)MACH95-80W100%0.0
12-19UCF (193.2)AmerH95-89W100%0.0
12-22Western Kentucky (174.2)CUSAA79-74L0%0.0
12-28Eastern Michigan (150.0)MACA88-73L0%0.0
1-2Youngstown St. (260.1)HorzH96-87W100%0.0
1-4Cleveland St. (274.7)HorzH88-80W100%0.0
1-8Illinois Chicago (347.2)HorzH87-69W100%0.0
1-10Valparaiso (36.9)HorzH74-92L0%0.0
1-16Oakland (113.2)HorzH82-86L0%0.0
1-18Wright St. (157.7)HorzA77-76L0%0.0
1-23Milwaukee (167.0)HorzA83-80L0%0.0
1-25Green Bay (162.5)HorzA115-108L0%0.0
1-29Northern Kentucky (245.6)HorzH83-91L0%0.0
1-31Wright St. (157.7)HorzH75-68W100%0.0
2-4Cleveland St. (274.7)HorzA63-71W100%0.0
2-6Youngstown St. (260.1)HorzA92-94W100%0.0
2-11Green Bay (162.5)HorzH0-049%-0.2
2-13Milwaukee (167.0)HorzH0-044%-1.6
2-16Northern Kentucky (245.6)HorzA0-047%-0.8
2-19Illinois Chicago (347.2)HorzA0-079%8.8
2-21Valparaiso (36.9)HorzA0-05%-18.1
2-26Oakland (113.2)HorzA0-014%-11.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Detroit's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Detroit's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Detroit.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DetroitHorz26.4426.4545.7845.86-2.23-2.19
OaklandHorz3.354.8166.6766.251.121.56
Cleveland St.Horz5.514.8023.8124.42-2.89-2.46
Youngstown St.Horz5.514.8033.3334.75-1.84-1.46
Wright St.Horz5.464.7757.1457.520.780.72
Green BayHorz3.184.7752.3854.570.150.44
Illinois ChicagoHorz3.174.765.266.98-2.84-4.09
Northern KentuckyHorz3.174.7630.0031.77-1.27-1.74
MilwaukeeHorz3.124.7457.1458.280.450.78
ValparaisoHorz3.134.7480.9581.951.943.03
ToledoMAC2.802.2761.9062.140.670.55
Bowling GreenMAC2.812.1155.0048.730.28-0.05
Eastern MichiganMAC2.492.0133.3339.21-0.83-0.43
UCFAmer2.441.9255.0047.300.24-0.10
NortheasternCAA2.381.8547.8348.26-0.10-0.06
Oral RobertsSum2.381.8536.3638.94-0.65-0.41
PittsburghACC2.381.8575.0067.081.190.63
VanderbiltSEC2.381.8554.5558.670.220.32
Western KentuckyCUSA2.381.8542.8644.37-0.34-0.21
Kent St.MAC0.440.3263.6459.380.120.06
Northern IllinoisMAC0.330.2963.1658.810.090.05
Central MichiganMAC0.280.2950.0051.170.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.440.2931.8230.48-0.16-0.11
AkronMAC0.270.2681.8280.040.170.15
Western MichiganMAC0.270.2533.3335.50-0.09-0.07
Ball St.MAC0.230.2363.6459.230.060.04
BelmontOVC0.270.2266.6766.540.090.07
BuffaloMAC0.180.1959.0958.900.030.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.270.1943.4842.63-0.04-0.03
South DakotaSum0.260.1941.6741.24-0.04-0.03
OhioMAC0.210.1961.9059.420.050.04
Chicago St.WAC0.160.194.357.73-0.14-0.16
Morehead St.OVC0.170.1650.0052.340.000.01
XavierBE0.210.1691.3084.380.180.11
Notre DameACC0.210.1669.5765.850.080.05
Western IllinoisSum0.110.1327.7829.14-0.05-0.06
DrakeMVC0.170.1321.7423.66-0.10-0.07
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1340.9143.55-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.160.1369.5766.200.060.04
LouisvilleACC0.170.1382.6177.730.110.07
DenverSum0.110.1354.1751.800.010.00
IPFWSum0.160.1370.8368.570.070.05
Missouri St.MVC0.160.1339.1337.74-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.160.1377.2776.850.080.07
DuquesneA100.160.1363.6456.370.040.02
Georgia TechACC0.110.1354.5552.810.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.160.1345.4549.71-0.01-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.160.1356.5256.620.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.1317.3920.65-0.07-0.07
WisconsinB100.110.1360.8755.860.020.01
PurdueB100.210.1379.1776.550.120.07
Michigan St.B100.160.1283.3383.010.110.08
KentuckySEC0.160.1273.9171.570.070.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.150.1228.0030.73-0.07-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.1013.6415.80-0.08-0.07
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.1056.5256.310.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.1029.1733.14-0.05-0.03
TulsaAmer0.110.1063.6459.960.030.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.160.1047.6252.06-0.010.00
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1052.1751.940.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.160.1047.3749.97-0.01-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.100.0969.5768.500.040.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.160.0922.7327.18-0.09-0.04
LipscombASun0.100.0925.0029.27-0.05-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.0971.4369.410.050.04
Stony BrookAE0.160.0980.9582.700.100.06
VirginiaACC0.100.0982.6178.050.070.05
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0961.9056.690.010.01
DePaulBE0.060.0734.7834.45-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.060.0747.8344.55-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0754.1750.940.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0740.9149.26-0.01-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0754.5550.110.010.00
West VirginiaB120.060.0782.6179.550.040.04
IUPUISum0.050.0740.0039.79-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.0763.6462.150.030.02
VermontAE0.110.0754.1757.520.010.01
FIUCUSA0.110.0640.9145.30-0.02-0.01
AmericanPat0.100.0630.4331.88-0.04-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.100.0628.5728.55-0.04-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.0623.8126.56-0.05-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0634.7840.92-0.02-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0670.8370.930.020.03
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0672.7372.450.030.03
DavidsonA100.110.0660.0057.950.020.01
East CarolinaAmer0.110.0645.4542.00-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0659.0959.440.010.01
George MasonA100.100.0634.7834.21-0.03-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.100.0657.8956.090.020.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0672.7368.020.000.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0659.0959.660.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0650.0051.170.000.00
MarylandB100.100.0687.5083.690.080.04
MemphisAmer0.060.0660.8760.800.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0626.0927.82-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.100.0625.0025.47-0.05-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0656.5262.780.010.02
OregonP120.050.0681.8278.150.030.04
Oregon St.P120.050.0661.9056.430.010.01
PacificWCC0.050.0625.0028.89-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.100.0641.6743.53-0.02-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0630.4331.18-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.110.0620.8320.12-0.07-0.04
StanfordP120.050.0650.0046.610.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.060.0666.6762.570.020.02
TempleAmer0.060.0663.6459.810.020.01
TulaneAmer0.060.0633.3332.33-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.050.0682.6179.430.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.060.0654.1749.290.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.100.0665.2260.280.030.01
South CarolinaSEC0.100.0686.3679.150.080.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.0631.8236.12-0.04-0.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0680.9575.490.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.0650.0049.100.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.050.0643.4840.60-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0663.6460.930.010.01
DelawareCAA0.100.0621.7423.31-0.06-0.03
DrexelCAA0.000.0613.6418.14-0.00-0.04
ElonCAA0.100.0652.1750.430.000.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0668.1865.290.020.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0665.2259.750.020.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.0676.1973.380.050.03
William & MaryCAA0.100.0671.4369.840.040.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0631.5831.81-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0636.8438.40-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0640.9136.61-0.01-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.0621.7424.68-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0652.3850.420.000.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0665.2266.080.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0672.0070.500.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0647.8346.87-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0678.2678.040.030.03
WashingtonP120.050.0665.2261.080.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0315.0022.35-0.04-0.02
North FloridaASun0.060.0365.2267.130.020.01
Penn St.B100.060.0350.0046.740.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.050.0360.8762.990.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0365.2268.610.020.01
OklahomaB120.050.0386.3682.100.040.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0347.8350.14-0.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0338.8945.64-0.01-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0330.4326.49-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0321.0527.81-0.03-0.01
ClemsonACC0.060.0360.8760.210.010.01
CornellIvy0.060.0342.1140.20-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.000.0373.9170.060.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0352.0050.260.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0352.3854.010.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.060.0369.5764.880.020.01
George WashingtonA100.060.0378.2674.360.030.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0371.4368.720.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0330.4335.11-0.02-0.01
MassachusettsA100.060.0340.9139.32-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0327.7834.49-0.03-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0382.6178.690.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0333.3332.99-0.02-0.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0328.5729.71-0.02-0.01
SMUAmer0.060.0390.4885.570.050.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0331.5831.99-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.060.0323.8127.69-0.03-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.060.0372.7371.610.030.01
UMBCAE0.060.0324.0026.41-0.03-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0328.5731.90-0.02-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0352.1751.930.000.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0313.6413.63-0.04-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0328.5731.37-0.02-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0354.1755.580.000.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0335.0038.53-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0325.0022.77-0.03-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0359.0953.030.010.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0352.1755.930.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0337.5040.51-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0372.7366.500.020.01
DaytonA100.050.0386.3682.350.040.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0345.4547.57-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.050.0381.8277.570.030.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0365.2259.020.020.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0340.9140.64-0.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0334.7830.36-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0326.0923.73-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.050.0369.5762.640.020.01
WoffordSC0.050.0340.9145.38-0.01-0.00