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Through games of Dec 17, 2014.


Detroit

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:152.9
Current RPI:161
Expected SOS:136
Current SOS:110
Current Record:4-5
Expected Record:14-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-3
Current OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC RPI:150
Expected OOC SOS:74



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-856.50.02%
20-963.50.29%
19-1078.21.21%
18-1189.83.77%
17-12104.88.18%
16-13121.414.46%
15-14138.918.41%
14-15157.520.16%
13-16177.216.36%
12-17196.79.72%
11-18217.04.83%
10-19238.61.88%
9-20257.50.55%
8-21273.30.14%
7-22300.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Detroit.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Oregon (95.4)P12A83-66L0%0.0
11-20Michigan (136.4)B10A71-62L0%0.0
11-22South Alabama (249.5)SBH66-53W100%0.0
11-24Maryland Eastern Shore (259.2)MEACN69-55W100%0.0
11-25Toledo (102.2)MACA79-82W100%0.0
11-30Bowling Green (95.0)MACH63-64L0%0.0
12-6South Florida (150.8)AmerH67-57W100%0.0
12-13Wichita St. (17.6)MVCH68-77L0%0.0
12-17UCF (250.2)AmerA75-70L0%0.0
12-20Rhode Island (61.4)A10A0-013%-13.3
12-23Arizona St. (94.9)P12A0-021%-9.6
12-30Oral Roberts (211.5)SumH0-079%9.7
1-2Wright St. (128.3)HorzA0-036%-4.2
1-4Milwaukee (259.4)HorzH0-081%10.4
1-10Oakland (229.8)HorzH0-080%10.0
1-14Illinois Chicago (305.5)HorzA0-068%5.5
1-17Green Bay (43.1)HorzH0-038%-3.5
1-19Northeastern (134.1)CAAA0-036%-4.3
1-23Cleveland St. (151.0)HorzA0-034%-4.8
1-26Wright St. (128.3)HorzH0-065%4.6
1-29Youngstown St. (213.1)HorzH0-077%8.6
1-31Milwaukee (259.4)HorzA0-055%1.6
2-4Valparaiso (100.6)HorzA0-026%-7.6
2-8Illinois Chicago (305.5)HorzH0-089%14.3
2-13Cleveland St. (151.0)HorzH0-063%4.0
2-15Oakland (229.8)HorzA0-054%1.2
2-18Green Bay (43.1)HorzA0-015%-12.2
2-21Youngstown St. (213.1)HorzA0-049%-0.2
2-25Valparaiso (100.6)HorzH0-054%1.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Detroit's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Detroit's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Detroit.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DetroitHorz28.0326.3643.9050.95-3.420.50
Cleveland St.Horz0.624.3737.5048.70-0.16-0.11
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.314.3418.1821.70-0.20-2.45
OaklandHorz0.284.3330.0032.11-0.11-1.55
MilwaukeeHorz0.004.3333.3334.77-0.00-1.32
Wright St.Horz0.354.3355.5654.140.040.36
ValparaisoHorz0.004.3080.0070.590.001.77
Youngstown St.Horz0.004.3045.4545.05-0.00-0.43
Green BayHorz0.004.3075.0079.140.002.50
ToledoMAC5.861.9066.6761.501.950.44
Bowling GreenMAC5.561.9071.4365.862.380.60
UCFAmer5.561.8450.0032.630.00-0.64
OregonP126.141.8462.5057.791.540.29
South FloridaAmer5.561.8257.1450.310.790.01
Oral RobertsSum0.001.7944.4445.66-0.00-0.16
Arizona St.P120.001.7860.0053.440.000.12
MichiganB105.861.7550.0040.650.00-0.33
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC5.561.7245.4545.84-0.51-0.14
NortheasternCAA0.001.7266.6757.350.000.25
Rhode IslandA100.001.7262.5073.080.000.80
South AlabamaSB5.561.720.0039.01-5.56-0.38
Wichita St.MVC5.561.7285.7184.643.971.19
Georgia St.SB0.000.2562.5071.700.000.11
Kent St.MAC0.000.2471.4361.390.000.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.310.2471.4363.540.130.06
DrakeMVC0.350.2220.0020.14-0.21-0.13
Chicago St.WAC0.280.210.0012.02-0.28-0.16
SMUAmer0.000.2170.0071.340.000.09
ArizonaP120.310.20100.0080.830.310.12
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1975.0070.220.000.08
South DakotaSum0.000.1820.0039.57-0.00-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1837.5038.59-0.00-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1822.2245.85-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.1837.5031.79-0.00-0.07
Ball St.MAC0.000.1828.5736.94-0.00-0.05
VCUA100.820.1770.0071.520.330.08
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1762.5055.120.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.1690.9188.430.000.12
MemphisAmer0.350.1555.5660.050.040.03
IUPUISum0.000.1520.0026.18-0.00-0.07
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1542.8652.07-0.000.01
TulsaAmer0.350.1560.0056.680.070.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.1530.0028.35-0.00-0.07
Central MichiganMAC0.000.1585.7170.330.000.06
Oregon St.P120.000.1475.0049.720.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1366.6764.900.000.04
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1337.5040.12-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.1242.8638.50-0.00-0.03
BradleyMVC0.000.1233.3332.03-0.00-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1271.4359.600.000.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1218.1846.19-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1260.0049.650.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.000.1260.0062.430.000.03
IPFWSum0.000.1257.1456.730.000.02
UMKCWAC0.000.1222.2242.15-0.00-0.02
DaytonA100.350.1277.7869.890.190.05
DePaulBE0.000.1266.6738.970.00-0.03
Ohio St.B100.000.1290.0084.620.000.08
HoustonAmer0.000.1271.4348.780.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.1260.0053.790.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.1287.5054.920.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.660.1260.0061.810.130.03
Michigan St.B100.000.1272.7373.120.000.05
NorthwesternB100.000.1260.0040.460.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.1260.0056.780.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.1270.0060.810.000.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1250.0033.280.00-0.04
MarylandB100.000.1290.9167.700.000.04
UtahP120.350.1277.7879.670.190.07
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1240.0046.88-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.560.0990.0075.760.440.05
Saint LouisA100.350.0960.0034.010.07-0.03
George MasonA100.000.0925.0025.95-0.00-0.04
MissouriSEC0.000.0944.4431.65-0.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.310.0960.0064.580.060.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0977.7869.420.000.04
BuffaloMAC0.000.0975.0069.340.000.03
FordhamA100.230.0928.5728.28-0.10-0.04
MassachusettsA100.000.0960.0055.530.000.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0925.0033.13-0.00-0.03
OhioMAC0.000.0950.0037.520.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.280.0930.0039.75-0.11-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0977.7865.350.000.03
AlabamaSEC0.690.0966.6755.660.230.01
RichmondA100.000.0950.0057.040.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0957.1456.210.000.01
IllinoisB100.310.0972.7365.950.140.03
Florida St.ACC0.310.0950.0037.400.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.280.0933.3345.72-0.09-0.01
NJITind0.310.0936.3640.81-0.08-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0918.1827.98-0.00-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0962.5066.710.000.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.310.0920.0034.02-0.19-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.310.090.0014.70-0.31-0.06
BucknellPat0.820.0940.0036.15-0.16-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0930.0044.01-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.0972.7357.410.000.01
USCP120.000.0960.0037.230.00-0.02
WashingtonP120.000.09100.0072.030.000.04
Washington St.P120.000.0940.0029.07-0.00-0.04
CaliforniaP120.000.0890.0066.470.000.03
ColoradoP120.000.0866.6757.580.000.01
HofstraCAA0.350.0877.7878.200.190.05
StanfordP120.000.0875.0058.750.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0675.0071.470.000.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0633.3332.85-0.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0690.0078.120.000.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.350.0636.3664.92-0.090.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0677.7871.830.000.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0620.0038.33-0.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0644.4435.62-0.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0636.3638.88-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0642.8650.31-0.000.00
DavidsonA100.310.0687.5077.040.230.03
DenverSum0.000.0650.0053.980.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0671.4364.070.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0642.8655.67-0.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0650.0054.660.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0636.3633.75-0.00-0.02
La SalleA100.000.0650.0049.770.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0620.0026.68-0.00-0.03
MaineAE0.000.0611.1121.17-0.00-0.04
MontanaBSky0.000.0625.0051.40-0.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0655.5661.640.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0644.4455.33-0.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0670.0058.440.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0655.5656.480.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0688.8963.230.000.02
PortlandWCC0.000.0666.6748.960.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0655.5640.200.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.060.0024.33-0.00-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0657.1454.700.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0622.2237.53-0.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.350.0688.8963.530.270.02
NebraskaB100.000.0666.6743.830.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.560.0650.0032.540.00-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0625.0023.97-0.00-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0611.1143.93-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0642.8632.44-0.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0666.6745.400.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0633.3339.12-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0636.3644.37-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0666.6772.380.000.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0688.8964.130.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0655.5638.460.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3345.26-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0085.210.000.04
MarshallCUSA0.000.0625.0038.24-0.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0666.6752.270.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0660.0034.930.00-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0644.4449.01-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0050.360.000.00
TroySB0.000.0633.3340.58-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0655.5654.760.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0085.770.000.04
YaleIvy0.000.0670.0064.820.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.0628.5731.25-0.00-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0650.0041.530.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0675.0064.990.000.02
PepperdineWCC0.560.0675.0058.890.280.01
VillanovaBE0.540.06100.0082.310.540.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0650.0044.640.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.060.008.74-0.00-0.05
DrexelCAA0.000.0625.0037.61-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0637.5048.14-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0685.7172.940.000.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0620.0037.19-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.230.0620.0021.41-0.14-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0620.0029.28-0.00-0.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0666.6751.310.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0650.0053.700.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0657.1456.560.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.350.030.0032.05-0.35-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0340.0033.85-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.310.0350.0052.290.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6766.690.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0377.7851.090.000.00
KansasB120.000.0388.8969.540.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0377.7867.330.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0372.7352.880.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.350.0344.4447.39-0.04-0.00
StetsonASun0.310.0311.1128.93-0.24-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0355.5654.600.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0328.5742.24-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.350.0355.5648.830.04-0.00
IndianaB100.000.0380.0057.470.000.00
IowaB100.000.0372.7362.590.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.560.0344.4444.99-0.06-0.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0377.7864.890.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.310.030.0019.58-0.31-0.02
Penn St.B100.000.0390.9154.060.000.00
PurdueB100.000.0372.7363.690.000.01
SyracuseACC0.310.0366.6757.600.100.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.310.0320.0028.69-0.19-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.350.0310.0041.11-0.28-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.350.0310.0018.36-0.28-0.02
MississippiSEC0.310.0366.6752.510.100.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.350.0381.8264.060.220.01
Portland St.BSky0.310.0357.1447.960.04-0.00
UABCUSA0.350.0333.3338.24-0.12-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0337.5046.91-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0337.5064.54-0.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0333.3341.58-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0342.8638.02-0.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.0320.0042.80-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.000.03100.0087.440.000.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0344.4439.99-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0012.28-0.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0340.0050.16-0.000.00
LehighPat0.000.0342.8652.31-0.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0322.2237.72-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0355.5647.640.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0325.0048.84-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.230.0337.5038.03-0.06-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0350.0056.370.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.230.030.0023.23-0.23-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.230.0344.4470.22-0.030.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.280.0340.0050.48-0.060.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0388.8981.120.000.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0371.4357.420.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.230.0350.0062.870.000.01
UMBCAE0.230.0310.0021.05-0.19-0.02
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0050.770.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.230.0355.5638.100.03-0.01