Detroit

Conference:	Horz
Expected RPI:	318.0
Current RPI:	318
Expected SOS:	209
Current SOS:	209
Current Record:	6-24
Expected Record:	6-24
Current Conf Record:	4-15
Expected Conf Record:	4-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-10
Current OOC Record:	2-9
Expected OOC Record:	2-9
Expected OOC RPI:	228
Expected OOC SOS:	38

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
6-24	318.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Detroit.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Virginia Tech (61.0)	ACC	A	111-79	L	0%
11-18	Seattle (165.0)	WAC	N	71-102	L	0%
11-19	Houston Baptist (345.0)	Slnd	N	109-116	W	100%
11-22	Saint Louis (148.0)	A10	A	70-72	W	100%
11-28	Fort Wayne (209.0)	Sum	A	91-82	L	0%
12-3	UCLA (36.0)	P12	A	106-73	L	0%
12-6	Toledo (75.0)	MAC	H	86-89	L	0%
12-9	Western Michigan (177.0)	MAC	H	79-87	L	0%
12-16	Michigan (12.0)	B10	N	90-58	L	0%
12-19	East Tennessee St. (93.0)	SC	H	73-81	L	0%
12-22	Murray St. (48.0)	OVC	H	72-81	L	0%
12-28	Green Bay (303.0)	Horz	A	95-83	L	0%
12-30	Milwaukee (231.0)	Horz	A	87-79	L	0%
1-5	Wright St. (99.0)	Horz	H	73-80	L	0%
1-7	Northern Kentucky (115.0)	Horz	H	54-56	L	0%
1-10	Cleveland St. (282.0)	Horz	H	85-84	W	100%
1-12	Youngstown St. (329.0)	Horz	H	93-91	W	100%
1-16	IUPUI (294.0)	Horz	A	81-66	L	0%
1-20	Oakland (182.0)	Horz	H	86-92	L	0%
1-26	Wright St. (99.0)	Horz	A	87-55	L	0%
1-28	Northern Kentucky (115.0)	Horz	A	72-44	L	0%
2-2	IUPUI (294.0)	Horz	H	74-60	W	100%
2-4	Illinois Chicago (236.0)	Horz	H	69-78	L	0%
2-9	Oakland (182.0)	Horz	A	87-78	L	0%
2-14	Cleveland St. (282.0)	Horz	A	75-72	L	0%
2-16	Youngstown St. (329.0)	Horz	A	84-94	W	100%
2-19	Illinois Chicago (236.0)	Horz	A	94-87	L	0%
2-22	Milwaukee (231.0)	Horz	H	49-72	L	0%
2-24	Green Bay (303.0)	Horz	H	97-107	L	0%
3-2	Green Bay (303.0)	Horz	N	81-93	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Detroit's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Detroit's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Detroit.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Detroit	Horz	26.41	26.41	19.18	19.18	-16.28	-16.28
Green Bay	Horz	5.92	5.92	25.93	25.93	-2.85	-2.85
Cleveland St.	Horz	4.54	4.54	31.25	31.25	-1.70	-1.70
Wright St.	Horz	4.50	4.50	70.00	70.00	1.80	1.80
Oakland	Horz	4.46	4.46	54.84	54.84	0.43	0.43
Milwaukee	Horz	4.39	4.39	44.83	44.83	-0.45	-0.45
Northern Kentucky	Horz	4.35	4.35	66.67	66.67	1.45	1.45
Illinois Chicago	Horz	4.34	4.34	46.43	46.43	-0.31	-0.31
Youngstown St.	Horz	4.30	4.30	21.43	21.43	-2.46	-2.46
IUPUI	Horz	4.30	4.30	30.77	30.77	-1.65	-1.65
Western Michigan	MAC	1.90	1.90	48.28	48.28	-0.07	-0.07
Toledo	MAC	1.87	1.87	65.62	65.62	0.59	0.59
East Tennessee St.	SC	1.81	1.81	70.97	70.97	0.76	0.76
Fort Wayne	Sum	1.80	1.80	48.15	48.15	-0.07	-0.07
Saint Louis	A10	1.78	1.78	51.61	51.61	0.06	0.06
Murray St.	OVC	1.74	1.74	82.14	82.14	1.12	1.12
Virginia Tech	ACC	1.72	1.72	64.52	64.52	0.50	0.50
Houston Baptist	Slnd	1.69	1.69	11.11	11.11	-1.32	-1.32
Michigan	B10	1.69	1.69	78.79	78.79	0.97	0.97
Seattle	WAC	1.69	1.69	55.17	55.17	0.18	0.18
UCLA	P12	1.69	1.69	64.52	64.52	0.49	0.49
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.30	0.30	36.67	36.67	-0.08	-0.08
Belmont	OVC	0.25	0.25	72.73	72.73	0.11	0.11
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.23	0.23	58.62	58.62	0.04	0.04
Kent St.	MAC	0.21	0.21	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.20	0.20	34.48	34.48	-0.06	-0.06
Miami OH	MAC	0.19	0.19	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.19	0.19	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
Akron	MAC	0.18	0.18	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.18	0.18	87.88	87.88	0.14	0.14
Western Illinois	Sum	0.17	0.17	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Morehead St.	OVC	0.17	0.17	22.22	22.22	-0.10	-0.10
Ball St.	MAC	0.17	0.17	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.16	0.16	70.59	70.59	0.07	0.07
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.16	0.16	84.38	84.38	0.11	0.11
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.15	0.15	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
South Dakota	Sum	0.14	0.14	73.33	73.33	0.07	0.07
Bowling Green	MAC	0.14	0.14	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	WAC	0.13	0.13	3.33	3.33	-0.12	-0.12
Purdue	B10	0.13	0.13	82.35	82.35	0.09	0.09
Central Michigan	MAC	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Washington St.	P12	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Stetson	ASun	0.11	0.11	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.11	0.11	24.24	24.24	-0.06	-0.06
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	6.67	6.67	-0.10	-0.10
DePaul	BE	0.11	0.11	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.11	0.11	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Indiana	B10	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.11	0.11	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Syracuse	ACC	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.10	0.10	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.09	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.09	0.09	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Missouri	SEC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	83.33	83.33	0.06	0.06
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	BE	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Troy	SB	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	Slnd	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
California	P12	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Washington	P12	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Furman	SC	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P12	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Kansas	B12	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Rutgers	B10	0.07	0.07	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Denver	Sum	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.06	0.06	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	30.77	30.77	-0.02	-0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	Amer	0.06	0.06	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
UMBC	AE	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Vermont	AE	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Providence	BE	0.06	0.06	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.06	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Utah St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Utah Valley	WAC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Elon	CAA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Davidson	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Mercer	SC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Notre Dame	ACC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
USC	P12	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	93.94	93.94	0.05	0.05
VMI	SC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
VCU	A10	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	15.62	15.62	-0.03	-0.03
East Carolina	Amer	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	8.00	8.00	-0.03	-0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Texas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
UTSA	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.02	0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Appalachian St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Idaho	BSky	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Tulsa	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Creighton	BE	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
George Mason	A10	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Southern	SB	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Houston	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	BE	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Penn	Ivy	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.02	0.02	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
LSU	SEC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.02	0.02	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00