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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Detroit

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:301.2
Current RPI:311
Expected SOS:144
Current SOS:146
Current Record:0-6
Expected Record:6-23
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-7
Current OOC Record:0-6
Expected OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC RPI:312
Expected OOC SOS:104



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-15166.00.01%
13-16178.30.03%
12-17195.50.15%
11-18215.40.68%
10-19234.41.89%
9-20253.34.61%
8-21271.79.39%
7-22286.615.27%
6-23300.819.47%
5-24312.320.01%
4-25321.615.31%
3-26329.58.86%
2-27335.13.46%
1-28339.60.76%
0-29344.10.09%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Detroit.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14East Tennessee St. (73.8)SCA107-78L0%0.0
11-18Illinois (134.7)B10A89-69L0%0.0
11-20Florida St. (50.8)ACCA100-71L0%0.0
11-23New Hampshire (156.1)AEA86-70L0%0.0
11-26Manhattan (234.2)MAACH81-84L0%0.0
11-30Eastern Michigan (101.7)MACH61-87L0%0.0
12-3Murray St. (139.5)OVCA0-09%-15.9
12-7Toledo (153.9)MACA0-014%-13.2
12-10Bowling Green (217.3)MACA0-018%-11.2
12-17Western Kentucky (248.0)CUSAH0-048%-0.7
12-22Fort Wayne (119.2)SumH0-017%-11.3
12-29Northern Kentucky (176.9)HorzH0-032%-5.5
12-31Wright St. (152.2)HorzH0-030%-6.4
1-6Illinois Chicago (223.1)HorzA0-018%-10.9
1-8Valparaiso (74.9)HorzA0-06%-19.0
1-13Oakland (89.5)HorzA0-04%-20.9
1-16Youngstown St. (237.6)HorzH0-047%-0.9
1-20Wright St. (152.2)HorzA0-015%-12.6
1-22Northern Kentucky (176.9)HorzA0-016%-11.7
1-27Milwaukee (251.6)HorzH0-050%0.0
1-29Green Bay (161.8)HorzH0-029%-6.5
2-2Cleveland St. (257.4)HorzA0-030%-6.2
2-4Youngstown St. (237.6)HorzA0-028%-7.1
2-10Oakland (89.5)HorzH0-011%-14.7
2-17Illinois Chicago (223.1)HorzH0-035%-4.7
2-19Valparaiso (74.9)HorzH0-014%-12.8
2-21Cleveland St. (257.4)HorzH0-050%0.0
2-24Milwaukee (251.6)HorzA0-030%-6.2
2-26Green Bay (161.8)HorzA0-014%-12.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Detroit's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Detroit's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Detroit.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DetroitHorz28.9726.390.0018.91-28.97-16.41
Green BayHorz0.004.4833.3346.53-0.00-0.31
Wright St.Horz0.004.4571.4354.120.000.37
MilwaukeeHorz0.694.4333.3331.25-0.23-1.66
Northern KentuckyHorz0.604.4250.0050.400.000.04
OaklandHorz0.004.4283.3377.390.002.42
Youngstown St.Horz0.004.4242.8635.74-0.00-1.26
ValparaisoHorz0.004.4085.7173.310.002.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.004.3916.6728.08-0.00-1.92
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.004.3950.0048.570.00-0.13
ToledoMAC0.002.0242.8649.11-0.00-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.001.9633.3342.31-0.00-0.30
Murray St.OVC0.001.8742.8660.83-0.000.41
IllinoisB108.931.8150.0040.680.00-0.34
Eastern MichiganMAC8.331.8140.0054.15-1.670.15
East Tennessee St.SC8.331.7880.0080.015.001.07
Florida St.ACC8.931.7883.3361.165.950.40
ManhattanMAAC8.331.7520.0036.13-5.00-0.49
Fort WayneSum0.001.7266.6770.480.000.71
New HampshireAE8.331.7240.0055.85-1.670.20
Western KentuckyCUSA0.001.7242.8633.57-0.00-0.57
Central MichiganMAC0.000.3066.6756.360.000.04
OhioMAC0.000.2980.0068.320.000.11
Miami OHMAC0.000.2750.0033.010.00-0.09
Western MichiganMAC0.000.2716.6736.45-0.00-0.07
Kent St.MAC0.000.2750.0051.820.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.2450.0052.330.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.2340.0061.37-0.000.05
Austin PeayOVC0.000.2140.0041.65-0.00-0.04
AkronMAC0.000.2183.3369.840.000.08
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.2142.8645.30-0.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.2166.6754.420.000.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.690.1814.2937.52-0.50-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1850.0043.490.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.180.0017.30-0.00-0.12
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1733.3341.52-0.00-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.600.1550.0038.430.00-0.03
West VirginiaB121.980.1583.3380.551.320.09
Michigan St.B100.000.1550.0061.590.000.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1485.7173.010.000.07
IUPUISum0.690.1228.5747.72-0.30-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.120.0019.30-0.00-0.08
Western IllinoisSum0.000.120.0022.69-0.00-0.07
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.1257.1440.590.00-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1275.0054.320.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1220.0041.93-0.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.1271.4356.050.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1225.0039.28-0.00-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.1240.0050.91-0.000.00
DePaulBE0.000.1280.0035.960.00-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1257.1459.480.000.02
KentuckySEC0.000.12100.0086.250.000.08
Penn St.B100.000.1262.5043.960.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.120.0023.26-0.00-0.06
WinthropBSth2.580.1260.0070.500.520.05
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1216.6727.03-0.00-0.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.690.1033.3348.73-0.23-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.1025.0040.81-0.00-0.02
VermontAE0.000.1062.5071.630.000.04
South DakotaSum0.000.0957.1447.220.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0916.6735.65-0.00-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0950.0046.670.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0933.3340.39-0.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.090.0038.35-0.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0985.7172.660.000.04
PurdueB100.000.0971.4374.450.000.04
WisconsinB100.000.0975.0073.840.000.04
Notre DameACC0.000.09100.0075.010.000.04
TempleAmer1.980.0971.4363.570.850.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0916.6733.69-0.00-0.03
SamfordSC0.000.0957.1455.810.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0928.5728.46-0.00-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.690.0950.0054.690.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0942.8646.78-0.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.0971.4368.660.000.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0933.3346.81-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0883.3359.600.000.02
IonaMAAC0.600.0860.0070.140.120.03
AlbanyAE0.000.0650.0060.380.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.0642.8640.94-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0633.3341.11-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0612.5022.55-0.00-0.04
MaineAE0.000.0616.6725.61-0.00-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0650.0061.810.000.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0616.6733.82-0.00-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.0680.0055.340.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0650.0066.170.000.02
IndianaB100.000.0683.3375.060.000.03
PittsburghACC0.690.0685.7155.550.500.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0666.6770.140.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0013.30-0.00-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0685.7168.390.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0616.6731.91-0.00-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0633.3335.92-0.00-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0650.0059.670.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0666.6769.810.000.02
DelawareCAA0.000.0640.0040.65-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.0637.5034.65-0.00-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0666.6751.460.000.00
ElonCAA0.000.0683.3358.030.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0666.6754.380.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0660.0067.410.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0650.0056.260.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0685.7155.890.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0650.0053.050.000.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0675.0070.470.000.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0666.6775.370.000.03
North DakotaBSky0.000.0633.3353.29-0.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0614.2931.71-0.00-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0657.1448.240.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0614.2928.15-0.00-0.03
PacificWCC0.000.0650.0049.010.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0683.3350.740.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.0683.3361.150.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0640.0027.05-0.00-0.03
UC DavisBW0.000.0657.1448.410.00-0.00
VMISC0.000.060.0021.15-0.00-0.03
WoffordSC0.000.060.0033.58-0.00-0.02
FurmanSC0.000.0620.0049.38-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0666.6758.420.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0616.6718.96-0.00-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0657.1447.320.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.690.0683.3377.170.460.03
FordhamA100.690.0657.1443.680.10-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0666.6756.020.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0018.22-0.00-0.04
IowaB100.000.0642.8644.33-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0685.7156.490.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0685.7159.740.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0671.4366.530.000.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0675.0064.960.000.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0614.2947.44-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0650.0062.460.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0671.4366.220.000.02
OregonP120.000.0671.4366.730.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0671.4370.330.000.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0637.5036.24-0.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.600.0685.7165.670.430.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0650.0045.920.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6737.09-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.600.0671.4350.570.260.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0666.6751.090.000.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0666.6753.460.000.00
DukeACC0.000.0687.5078.680.000.03
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0683.3362.080.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0642.8635.68-0.00-0.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0671.4365.740.000.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0671.4371.570.000.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0666.6765.810.000.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0616.6734.31-0.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0047.990.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0660.0052.760.000.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0628.5750.51-0.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0633.3323.33-0.00-0.03
UABCUSA0.000.0657.1461.940.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.690.0325.0053.29-0.350.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0383.3362.840.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0350.0053.530.000.00
BryantNEC0.000.0328.5750.20-0.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0023.47-0.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.690.0320.0048.38-0.42-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0342.8647.69-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.030.0039.35-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0024.77-0.00-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.690.0371.4356.280.300.00
SMUAmer0.690.0357.1469.300.100.01
StetsonASun0.000.0328.5728.26-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0371.4346.010.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0383.3370.360.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0314.2928.66-0.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0366.6772.440.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0371.4343.020.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0024.19-0.00-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0325.0034.47-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0385.7180.960.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.0350.0043.610.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0383.3344.770.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0046.780.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0340.0037.44-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0350.0056.430.000.00
VCUA100.000.0385.7178.150.000.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0314.2934.56-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0027.250.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.690.0375.0067.660.350.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.600.0325.0038.72-0.30-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0387.5075.320.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0320.0034.39-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0357.1444.160.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0366.6739.720.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.690.0357.1440.550.10-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0340.0067.95-0.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0385.7175.950.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0342.8637.25-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0385.7180.010.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.32-0.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0340.0030.80-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0385.7169.010.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0089.040.000.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0316.6729.36-0.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0371.4349.590.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0325.0043.26-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0082.550.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.920.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0371.4352.370.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.0357.1452.630.000.00