live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Detroit

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:204.0
Current RPI:204
Expected SOS:207
Current SOS:207
Current Record:14-15
Expected Record:14-15
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:183
Expected OOC SOS:142



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-15204.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Detroit.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-20Pittsburgh (53.0)ACCA95-79L0%0.0
11-28Oral Roberts (148.0)SumA100-95L0%0.0
12-2Vanderbilt (63.0)SECA102-52L0%0.0
12-5Northeastern (109.0)CAAH76-73W100%0.0
12-9Toledo (182.0)MACH75-72W100%0.0
12-12Bowling Green (200.0)MACH95-80W100%0.0
12-19UCF (219.0)AmerH95-89W100%0.0
12-22Western Kentucky (153.0)CUSAA79-74L0%0.0
12-28Eastern Michigan (113.0)MACA88-73L0%0.0
1-2Youngstown St. (275.0)HorzH96-87W100%0.0
1-4Cleveland St. (278.0)HorzH88-80W100%0.0
1-8Illinois Chicago (346.0)HorzH87-69W100%0.0
1-10Valparaiso (49.0)HorzH74-92L0%0.0
1-16Oakland (116.0)HorzH82-86L0%0.0
1-18Wright St. (146.0)HorzA77-76L0%0.0
1-23Milwaukee (173.0)HorzA83-80L0%0.0
1-25Green Bay (112.0)HorzA115-108L0%0.0
1-29Northern Kentucky (296.0)HorzH83-91L0%0.0
1-31Wright St. (146.0)HorzH75-68W100%0.0
2-4Cleveland St. (278.0)HorzA63-71W100%0.0
2-6Youngstown St. (275.0)HorzA92-94W100%0.0
2-11Green Bay (112.0)HorzH85-86L0%0.0
2-13Milwaukee (173.0)HorzH80-66W100%0.0
2-16Northern Kentucky (296.0)HorzA68-74W100%0.0
2-19Illinois Chicago (346.0)HorzA72-83W100%0.0
2-21Valparaiso (49.0)HorzA90-74L0%0.0
2-26Oakland (116.0)HorzA108-97L0%0.0
3-5Youngstown St. (275.0)HorzH92-79W100%0.0
3-6Wright St. (146.0)HorzN82-72L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Detroit's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Detroit's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Detroit.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DetroitHorz26.5426.5447.9347.93-1.10-1.10
Wright St.Horz6.346.3460.0060.001.271.27
Youngstown St.Horz6.186.1833.3333.33-2.06-2.06
Green BayHorz4.754.7561.2961.291.071.07
OaklandHorz4.614.6163.3363.331.231.23
MilwaukeeHorz4.584.5858.6258.620.790.79
Cleveland St.Horz4.574.5725.0025.00-2.28-2.28
Illinois ChicagoHorz4.564.5611.5411.54-3.51-3.51
Northern KentuckyHorz4.544.5423.0823.08-2.44-2.44
ValparaisoHorz4.514.5178.5778.572.582.58
ToledoMAC2.152.1553.3353.330.140.14
Bowling GreenMAC2.002.0045.1645.16-0.19-0.19
Eastern MichiganMAC1.891.8946.4346.43-0.13-0.13
UCFAmer1.791.7941.3841.38-0.31-0.31
NortheasternCAA1.721.7254.8454.840.170.17
Oral RobertsSum1.721.7239.2939.29-0.37-0.37
PittsburghACC1.721.7263.3363.330.460.46
VanderbiltSEC1.721.7258.0658.060.280.28
Western KentuckyCUSA1.721.7248.3948.39-0.06-0.06
Kent St.MAC0.340.3458.0658.060.050.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.280.2858.6258.620.050.05
Central MichiganMAC0.280.2848.2848.28-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.280.2875.7675.760.140.14
Miami OHMAC0.270.2737.5037.50-0.07-0.07
Western MichiganMAC0.220.2236.6736.67-0.06-0.06
Ball St.MAC0.200.2058.0658.060.030.03
BelmontOVC0.200.2063.3363.330.050.05
South DakotaSum0.190.1940.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
BuffaloMAC0.170.1757.5857.580.030.03
OhioMAC0.170.1764.5264.520.050.05
XavierBE0.170.1784.3884.380.110.11
Chicago St.WAC0.160.163.453.45-0.15-0.15
MichiganB100.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.150.1577.4277.420.080.08
Morehead St.OVC0.140.1458.6258.620.020.02
PurdueB100.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
Robert MorrisNEC0.140.1431.2531.25-0.05-0.05
Murray St.OVC0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
KentuckySEC0.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
Western IllinoisSum0.120.1229.1729.17-0.05-0.05
IPFWSum0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
Missouri St.MVC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.120.1220.0020.00-0.07-0.07
DenverSum0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
Michigan St.B100.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
DuquesneA100.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.1121.4321.43-0.06-0.06
WisconsinB100.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0911.1111.11-0.07-0.07
TulsaAmer0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
AmericanPat0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0921.8821.88-0.05-0.05
TulaneAmer0.090.0935.2935.29-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
SyracuseACC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0822.5822.58-0.05-0.05
LipscombASun0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
VirginiaACC0.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0862.8662.860.020.02
Stony BrookAE0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
TennesseeSEC0.080.0844.1244.12-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
UABCUSA0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
George MasonA100.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
DePaulBE0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.060.0644.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
IUPUISum0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
IonaMAAC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
MarylandB100.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
MemphisAmer0.060.0655.8855.880.010.01
OregonP120.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Oregon St.P120.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
RiderMAAC0.060.0639.3939.39-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.060.0624.2424.24-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
FIUCUSA0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
VermontAE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
MinnesotaB100.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.060.0682.3582.350.040.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
PacificWCC0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Penn St.B100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
StetsonASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
CornellIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
DaytonA100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
UMBCAE0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00