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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Detroit

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:230.0
Current RPI:230
Expected SOS:160
Current SOS:160
Current Record:11-19
Expected Record:11-19
Current Conf Record:6-11
Expected Conf Record:6-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-2
Current OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC RPI:204
Expected OOC SOS:164



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-19230.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Detroit.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8South Alabama (280.0)SBA74-58L0%0.0
11-14Connecticut (22.0)AmerA101-55L0%0.0
11-19James Madison (233.0)CAAA67-71W100%0.0
11-22Florida Atlantic (270.0)CUSAH77-44W100%0.0
11-23Toledo (38.0)MACH78-80L0%0.0
11-24Stony Brook (165.0)AEH102-104L0%0.0
11-30South Florida (232.0)AmerA60-65W100%0.0
12-4Toledo (38.0)MACA91-75L0%0.0
12-8Rhode Island (155.0)A10H70-68W100%0.0
12-14North Carolina St. (55.0)ACCA82-79L0%0.0
12-18Akron (93.0)MACA79-60L0%0.0
12-22Bowling Green (194.0)MACA64-62L0%0.0
12-30Bethune Cookman (343.0)MEACH73-53W100%0.0
1-4Wright St. (173.0)HorzH58-53W100%0.0
1-8Cleveland St. (91.0)HorzA73-63L0%0.0
1-11Oakland (181.0)HorzH69-77L0%0.0
1-15Valparaiso (184.0)HorzH70-78L0%0.0
1-18Youngstown St. (237.0)HorzA77-63L0%0.0
1-24Milwaukee (131.0)HorzA54-73W100%0.0
1-26Green Bay (58.0)HorzA62-52L0%0.0
1-29UIC (315.0)HorzH74-68W100%0.0
1-31Cleveland St. (91.0)HorzH78-86L0%0.0
2-7Valparaiso (184.0)HorzA57-59W100%0.0
2-9Youngstown St. (237.0)HorzH83-81W100%0.0
2-14Oakland (181.0)HorzA83-82L0%0.0
2-18UIC (315.0)HorzA59-65W100%0.0
2-21Wright St. (173.0)HorzA65-61L0%0.0
2-27Milwaukee (131.0)HorzH62-68L0%0.0
3-1Green Bay (58.0)HorzH66-75L0%0.0
3-4Milwaukee (131.0)HorzA83-73L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Detroit's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Detroit's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Detroit.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DetroitHorz26.4126.4138.4138.41-6.12-6.12
MilwaukeeHorz5.985.9860.0060.001.201.20
Wright St.Horz4.414.4156.6756.670.590.59
ValparaisoHorz4.324.3250.0050.000.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz4.294.2960.7160.710.920.92
OaklandHorz4.274.2731.0331.03-1.62-1.62
Youngstown St.Horz4.244.2440.7440.74-0.78-0.78
Green BayHorz4.224.2276.0076.002.202.20
UICHorz4.214.2114.8114.81-2.96-2.96
ToledoMAC3.523.5280.0080.002.112.11
Bowling GreenMAC1.901.9033.3333.33-0.63-0.63
AkronMAC1.861.8662.5062.500.460.46
James MadisonCAA1.801.8036.6736.67-0.48-0.48
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.781.7817.2417.24-1.16-1.16
South FloridaAmer1.771.7738.7138.71-0.40-0.40
Stony BrookAE1.751.7567.7467.740.620.62
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.741.7427.5927.59-0.78-0.78
ConnecticutAmer1.721.7275.7675.760.890.89
South AlabamaSB1.721.7225.9325.93-0.83-0.83
North Carolina St.ACC1.671.6760.6160.610.350.35
Rhode IslandA101.671.6743.3343.33-0.22-0.22
Eastern MichiganMAC0.430.4356.2556.250.050.05
OhioMAC0.340.3466.6766.670.110.11
Ball St.MAC0.320.3210.7110.71-0.25-0.25
Northern IllinoisMAC0.310.3145.1645.16-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.290.2970.9770.970.120.12
Kent St.MAC0.270.2748.3948.39-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.270.2737.9337.93-0.06-0.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.220.2261.7661.760.050.05
Miami OHMAC0.210.2143.3343.33-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.190.1971.8871.880.080.08
UMKCWAC0.190.1934.4834.48-0.06-0.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.170.1732.1432.14-0.06-0.06
WisconsinB100.160.1678.7978.790.090.09
Tennessee TechOVC0.160.1648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.160.1664.2964.290.040.04
Central MichiganMAC0.160.1627.5927.59-0.07-0.07
DePaulBE0.160.1636.3636.36-0.04-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.160.1634.3834.38-0.05-0.05
CincinnatiAmer0.150.1581.8281.820.100.10
FIUCUSA0.140.1446.4346.43-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.140.1475.0075.000.070.07
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.130.1325.8125.81-0.07-0.07
Florida A&MMEAC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.130.1329.0329.03-0.06-0.06
MaineAE0.130.1317.8617.86-0.08-0.08
Boston CollegeACC0.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
RutgersAmer0.130.1334.3834.38-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleAmer0.130.1385.2985.290.090.09
MemphisAmer0.130.1370.9770.970.050.05
South DakotaSum0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.110.1186.2186.210.080.08
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
VirginiaACC0.110.1182.3582.350.070.07
IllinoisB100.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
DrexelCAA0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Saint LouisA100.110.1180.6580.650.070.07
Western CarolinaSC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
PittsburghACC0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
San Jose St.MWC0.100.1017.2417.24-0.07-0.07
BradleyMVC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
TempleAmer0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
TulsaCUSA0.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
Western KentuckySB0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
GonzagaWCC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
NorthwesternB100.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0814.8114.81-0.06-0.06
StetsonASun0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0883.8783.870.050.05
George MasonA100.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
New HampshireAE0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
UMass LowellAE0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
AlbanyAE0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
HartfordAE0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
DukeACC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
MarylandACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
DavidsonSC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Miami FLACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0634.6234.62-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
RiceCUSA0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
St. John'sBE0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
WagnerNEC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
KentuckySEC0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Murray St.OVC0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
FordhamA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Michigan St.B100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
UCLAP120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
KansasB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
UMBCAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
VMIBSth0.050.0555.5655.560.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
TexasB120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ElonSC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
BrownIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
DuquesneA100.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
High PointBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
IPFWSum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0393.1093.100.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
XavierBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
CornellIvy0.030.033.703.70-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Appalachian St.SC0.020.0219.2319.23-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
CampbellBSth0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0294.1294.120.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Notre DameACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
YaleIvy0.020.0251.8551.850.000.00