Detroit

Conference:	Horz
Expected RPI:	63.0
Current RPI:	63
Expected SOS:	99
Current SOS:	99
Current Record:	18-12
Expected Record:	18-12
Current Conf Record:	12-5
Expected Conf Record:	12-5
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	10-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-1
Current OOC Record:	6-7
Expected OOC Record:	6-7
Expected OOC RPI:	82
Expected OOC SOS:	22

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
18-12	63.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Detroit.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-13	St. John's (96.0)	BE	A	77-74	L	0%
11-17	Drake (143.0)	MVC	H	85-79	W	100%
11-24	Miami FL (4.0)	ACC	A	77-62	L	0%
11-27	Bowling Green (274.0)	MAC	A	70-65	L	0%
12-1	Pittsburgh (44.0)	BE	A	74-61	L	0%
12-5	Toledo (193.0)	MAC	H	79-73	W	100%
12-10	Alabama St. (328.0)	SWAC	H	81-68	W	100%
12-15	Akron (43.0)	MAC	H	80-73	W	100%
12-17	Syracuse (14.0)	BE	A	72-68	L	0%
12-19	Alcorn St. (311.0)	SWAC	A	58-74	W	100%
12-30	Canisius (112.0)	MAAC	H	83-78	W	100%
1-3	Wisconsin Milwaukee (307.0)	Horz	H	74-59	W	100%
1-5	Wisconsin Green Bay (160.0)	Horz	H	84-76	W	100%
1-10	Youngstown St. (188.0)	Horz	A	60-101	W	100%
1-12	Cleveland St. (199.0)	Horz	A	74-62	L	0%
1-17	Valparaiso (58.0)	Horz	H	88-89	L	0%
1-19	Illinois Chicago (169.0)	Horz	H	98-47	W	100%
1-21	Wright St. (129.0)	Horz	H	62-64	L	0%
1-26	Loyola Chicago (223.0)	Horz	A	63-75	W	100%
1-30	Wright St. (129.0)	Horz	A	76-83	W	100%
2-1	Youngstown St. (188.0)	Horz	H	88-77	W	100%
2-7	Wisconsin Milwaukee (307.0)	Horz	A	74-82	W	100%
2-9	Wisconsin Green Bay (160.0)	Horz	A	68-59	L	0%
2-12	Cleveland St. (199.0)	Horz	H	92-62	W	100%
2-16	Valparaiso (58.0)	Horz	A	74-84	W	100%
2-23	Wichita St. (37.0)	MVC	A	94-79	L	0%
2-26	Loyola Chicago (223.0)	Horz	H	76-75	W	100%
2-28	Temple (42.0)	A10	A	83-78	L	0%
3-2	Illinois Chicago (169.0)	Horz	A	67-79	W	100%
3-9	Wright St. (129.0)	Horz	N	54-56	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Detroit's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Detroit's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Detroit.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Detroit	Horz	26.35	26.35	64.06	64.06	7.41	7.41
Wright St.	Horz	5.91	5.91	62.07	62.07	1.43	1.43
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	4.34	4.34	53.33	53.33	0.29	0.29
Youngstown St.	Horz	4.30	4.30	51.85	51.85	0.16	0.16
Illinois Chicago	Horz	4.29	4.29	55.17	55.17	0.44	0.44
Valparaiso	Horz	4.28	4.28	80.00	80.00	2.57	2.57
Cleveland St.	Horz	4.28	4.28	37.04	37.04	-1.11	-1.11
Loyola Chicago	Horz	4.23	4.23	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	4.20	4.20	21.43	21.43	-2.40	-2.40
Bowling Green	MAC	1.97	1.97	34.48	34.48	-0.61	-0.61
Toledo	MAC	1.89	1.89	55.56	55.56	0.21	0.21
Syracuse	BE	1.82	1.82	73.53	73.53	0.86	0.86
Akron	MAC	1.81	1.81	83.33	83.33	1.21	1.21
Alcorn St.	SWAC	1.80	1.80	29.03	29.03	-0.75	-0.75
Temple	A10	1.77	1.77	70.97	70.97	0.74	0.74
Drake	MVC	1.77	1.77	46.67	46.67	-0.12	-0.12
Canisius	MAAC	1.74	1.74	60.00	60.00	0.35	0.35
Pittsburgh	BE	1.74	1.74	74.19	74.19	0.84	0.84
Wichita St.	MVC	1.72	1.72	75.76	75.76	0.89	0.89
Alabama St.	SWAC	1.72	1.72	30.00	30.00	-0.69	-0.69
St. John's	BE	1.72	1.72	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	1.67	1.67	81.25	81.25	1.04	1.04
Kent St.	MAC	0.41	0.41	59.38	59.38	0.08	0.08
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.33	0.33	13.79	13.79	-0.24	-0.24
Miami OH	MAC	0.30	0.30	26.67	26.67	-0.14	-0.14
DePaul	BE	0.27	0.27	34.38	34.38	-0.08	-0.08
Central Michigan	MAC	0.25	0.25	33.33	33.33	-0.08	-0.08
Buffalo	MAC	0.25	0.25	37.50	37.50	-0.06	-0.06
South Florida	BE	0.22	0.22	38.71	38.71	-0.05	-0.05
Chicago St.	GWC	0.22	0.22	25.00	25.00	-0.11	-0.11
Evansville	MVC	0.21	0.21	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.19	0.19	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.19	0.19	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.18	0.18	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.18	0.18	79.41	79.41	0.11	0.11
Cincinnati	BE	0.18	0.18	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
Villanova	BE	0.18	0.18	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.18	0.18	29.03	29.03	-0.08	-0.08
Ball St.	MAC	0.17	0.17	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.17	0.17	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Ohio	MAC	0.17	0.17	72.73	72.73	0.08	0.08
Grambling	SWAC	0.16	0.16	0.00	0.00	-0.16	-0.16
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.16	0.16	37.04	37.04	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.15	0.15	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Marquette	BE	0.15	0.15	74.19	74.19	0.07	0.07
Georgetown	BE	0.15	0.15	80.65	80.65	0.09	0.09
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.14	0.14	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.14	0.14	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
IUPUI	Sum	0.14	0.14	13.33	13.33	-0.10	-0.10
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.13	0.13	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Iona	MAAC	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.13	0.13	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Idaho	WAC	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Indiana St.	MVC	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.13	0.13	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.12	0.12	85.29	85.29	0.09	0.09
Western Illinois	Sum	0.11	0.11	71.43	71.43	0.05	0.05
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.11	0.11	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.11	0.11	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Fairfield	MAAC	0.11	0.11	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.11	0.11	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Michigan St.	B10	0.11	0.11	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.11	0.11	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Wisconsin	B10	0.11	0.11	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.11	0.11	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	17.86	17.86	-0.07	-0.07
New Mexico	MWC	0.11	0.11	85.29	85.29	0.07	0.07
Southern	SWAC	0.11	0.11	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Notre Dame	BE	0.10	0.10	73.53	73.53	0.05	0.05
Rutgers	BE	0.10	0.10	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Providence	BE	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.09	0.09	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Samford	SC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
George Washington	A10	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
South Carolina	SEC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.08	0.08	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Jacksonville	ASun	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.08	0.08	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Murray St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Nevada	MWC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.08	0.08	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
Idaho St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	17.24	17.24	-0.05	-0.05
Morehead St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.08	0.08	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Oakland	Sum	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Utah	P12	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Duke	ACC	0.08	0.08	84.38	84.38	0.05	0.05
Boston College	ACC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Davidson	SC	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Furman	SC	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.06	7.14	7.14	-0.05	-0.05
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.05	0.05	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.05	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Utah	BSky	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.05	59.26	59.26	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
New Orleans	ind	0.03	0.03	18.18	18.18	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota	BSky	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Boston University	AE	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
California	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.31	42.31	-0.00	-0.00
College of Charleston	SC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.03	0.03	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	81.25	81.25	0.02	0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Butler	A10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.00	10.00	-0.02	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.02	0.02	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.02	0.02	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.02	0.02	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Monmouth	NEC	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01