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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Buffalo

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:138.0
Current RPI:64
Expected SOS:123
Current SOS:29
Current Record:2-3
Expected Record:15-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-3
Current OOC Record:2-3
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:122
Expected OOC SOS:153



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-738.70.10%
21-845.90.39%
20-958.90.99%
19-1069.42.63%
18-1182.85.90%
17-1297.410.64%
16-13113.015.82%
15-14130.417.66%
14-15148.617.05%
13-16167.713.04%
12-17188.98.52%
11-18208.64.33%
10-19228.52.02%
9-20247.30.70%
8-21263.20.14%
7-22267.30.03%
6-23289.00.02%
5-24277.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Buffalo.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Niagara (304.2)MAACA66-76W100%0.0
11-14Xavier (11.9)BEA86-53L0%0.0
11-25Nevada (46.6)MWCN67-62L0%0.0
11-26Weber St. (175.7)BSkyN72-74W100%0.0
11-29Creighton (25.4)BEA93-72L0%0.0
12-3St. Bonaventure (61.9)A10A0-016%-12.1
12-7Pittsburgh (49.5)ACCA0-015%-12.6
12-10Coppin St. (342.9)MEACH0-097%22.3
12-17Canisius (211.7)MAACN0-065%4.7
12-21Robert Morris (246.0)NECN0-072%7.1
12-30Maine (310.8)AEH0-090%15.6
1-3Toledo (153.9)MACA0-041%-2.6
1-7Eastern Michigan (101.7)MACA0-031%-6.1
1-10Ohio (94.7)MACH0-048%-0.6
1-14Ball St. (212.5)MACH0-065%4.7
1-17Kent St. (205.9)MACA0-042%-2.4
1-21Western Michigan (212.4)MACH0-069%6.0
1-24Miami OH (271.3)MACA0-062%3.6
1-28Akron (74.5)MACA0-023%-8.9
1-31Central Michigan (157.8)MACH0-061%3.5
2-4Ball St. (212.5)MACA0-045%-1.4
2-7Northern Illinois (209.4)MACH0-065%4.7
2-11Bowling Green (217.3)MACA0-048%-0.6
2-14Central Michigan (157.8)MACA0-041%-2.7
2-18Miami OH (271.3)MACH0-079%9.8
2-21Kent St. (205.9)MACH0-063%3.8
2-25Akron (74.5)MACH0-041%-2.8
2-28Ohio (94.7)MACA0-029%-6.8
3-3Bowling Green (217.3)MACH0-068%5.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Buffalo's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Buffalo's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Buffalo.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BuffaloMAC28.8926.2652.1753.361.261.76
AkronMAC0.004.2883.3369.970.001.71
Kent St.MAC0.004.2550.0052.120.000.18
Miami OHMAC0.004.2550.0033.270.00-1.42
Bowling GreenMAC0.004.2533.3343.76-0.00-0.53
OhioMAC0.004.2280.0068.820.001.59
Ball St.MAC0.004.1950.0052.870.000.24
Central MichiganMAC0.004.1966.6756.920.000.58
Eastern MichiganMAC0.002.5850.0055.330.000.27
Western MichiganMAC0.002.5616.6736.65-0.00-0.68
ToledoMAC0.002.5542.8650.07-0.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.002.5542.8645.69-0.00-0.22
NiagaraMAAC10.001.8720.0027.93-6.00-0.82
Coppin St.MEAC0.001.840.0018.75-0.00-1.15
CreightonBE10.001.84100.0075.8510.000.95
St. BonaventureA100.001.8466.6770.280.000.75
CanisiusMAAC0.001.8133.3341.74-0.00-0.30
XavierBE10.001.78100.0073.9610.000.85
PittsburghACC0.001.7685.7154.560.000.16
MaineAE0.001.7216.6726.15-0.00-0.82
NevadaMWC10.001.7271.4369.494.290.67
Robert MorrisNEC0.001.7225.0039.67-0.00-0.36
Weber St.BSky10.001.7225.0057.05-5.000.24
IonaMAAC2.250.2660.0070.140.450.10
Green BayHorz0.000.2133.3348.71-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1814.2928.66-0.00-0.08
MarshallCUSA0.000.1883.3359.600.000.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1816.6730.27-0.00-0.07
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1742.8637.60-0.00-0.04
IUPUISum0.000.1528.5747.72-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.1571.4355.750.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.1450.0047.560.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.620.1483.3378.430.420.08
VillanovaBE0.000.14100.0083.120.000.09
ProvidenceBE0.000.1471.4356.280.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.1437.5034.65-0.00-0.04
DePaulBE0.000.1480.0035.960.00-0.04
MarquetteBE0.000.1471.4363.090.000.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.1416.6734.31-0.00-0.04
SienaMAAC0.000.1428.5750.51-0.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.1250.0062.460.000.03
PepperdineWCC1.000.1250.0035.230.00-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1233.3346.81-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.120.0019.51-0.00-0.07
BryantNEC0.000.1228.5750.20-0.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.1228.5734.18-0.00-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1216.6737.09-0.00-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.1250.0042.710.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.120.0038.35-0.00-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.000.1125.0024.66-0.00-0.06
Saint LouisA100.000.1133.3326.75-0.00-0.05
South DakotaSum0.000.1157.1447.220.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.11100.0075.690.000.06
San Jose St.MWC0.000.1140.0037.44-0.00-0.03
Seton HallBE0.000.1171.4354.520.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.1128.5733.92-0.00-0.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.1183.3357.990.000.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1183.3362.080.000.03
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1133.3338.19-0.00-0.03
MaristMAAC0.000.1142.8635.68-0.00-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1171.4371.570.000.05
RiderMAAC0.000.1150.0047.990.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1160.0052.760.000.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0940.0050.88-0.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0966.6751.460.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.090.0023.26-0.00-0.05
VermontAE0.000.0962.5071.630.000.04
Georgia TechACC0.000.0966.6739.720.00-0.02
Little RockSB0.000.0960.0057.900.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0966.6770.140.000.04
Utah St.MWC0.000.0950.0053.560.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.090.0034.18-0.00-0.03
MissouriSEC0.710.0950.0045.920.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0950.0054.690.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.090.0013.30-0.00-0.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0983.3377.170.000.05
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0985.7174.430.000.04
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0933.3340.39-0.00-0.02
George MasonA100.000.0957.1442.940.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0957.1448.240.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.710.0971.4356.050.310.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0950.0046.780.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0950.0058.980.000.02
ClemsonACC0.710.0966.6753.460.240.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0912.5048.98-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0950.0060.380.000.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0950.0029.280.00-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0985.7180.960.000.05
HartfordAE0.830.0912.5022.55-0.62-0.05
Oregon St.P120.620.0928.5723.76-0.27-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0840.0037.65-0.00-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0840.0043.86-0.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0816.6729.36-0.00-0.03
VirginiaACC0.000.08100.0082.550.000.05
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0614.2929.81-0.00-0.03
MontanaBSky0.000.0614.2947.44-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0633.3353.29-0.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0616.6740.71-0.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.0671.4368.660.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3333.15-0.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0058.600.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0625.0056.92-0.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0642.8634.17-0.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0620.0048.38-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0633.3348.73-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0657.1469.300.000.02
AmericanPat0.000.0616.6735.65-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0024.25-0.00-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0640.0041.65-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0616.6731.91-0.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0017.30-0.00-0.04
DelawareCAA0.000.0640.0040.65-0.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0666.6770.930.000.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0650.0045.410.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0091.060.000.05
IllinoisB100.000.0657.1442.660.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0650.0053.050.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0650.0052.140.000.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0633.3336.31-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.77-0.00-0.03
UCFAmer0.000.0683.3374.620.000.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0022.69-0.00-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.000.0640.0055.44-0.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0657.1440.550.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.0675.0061.040.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.0657.1452.630.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0666.6756.020.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0614.2934.56-0.00-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.0642.8640.94-0.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0666.6772.440.000.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0642.8646.78-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0683.3358.080.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0685.7173.010.000.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0024.77-0.00-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.000.0642.8661.90-0.000.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0650.0057.480.000.01
NJITASun0.000.0642.8650.32-0.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0614.2931.71-0.00-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0616.6733.82-0.00-0.02
TexasB120.000.0650.0036.240.00-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0625.0040.81-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.0680.0055.340.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.060.0033.58-0.00-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0650.0053.530.000.00
BrownIvy0.830.0650.0042.420.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.0687.5078.680.000.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.710.0671.4350.570.310.00
RichmondA100.000.0657.1448.600.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0685.7162.920.000.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0620.0034.22-0.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0660.0039.610.00-0.01
LehighPat0.710.0633.3367.01-0.240.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.0685.7175.950.000.03
New MexicoMWC0.000.0671.4358.670.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0685.7180.010.000.03
Northern IowaMVC1.430.0640.0057.49-0.290.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0642.8638.05-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0675.0074.990.000.03
TowsonCAA0.000.0650.0054.490.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0671.4349.590.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.000.0633.3353.85-0.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0671.4352.370.000.00
DenverSum0.000.0333.3341.11-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.030.0039.35-0.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0314.2928.15-0.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0325.0040.37-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.030.0021.30-0.00-0.02
StanfordP121.000.0375.0059.100.500.01
UC DavisBW1.000.0357.1448.410.14-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0360.0058.950.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0333.3335.92-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0316.6743.29-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.000.0383.3358.030.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0316.6733.69-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0350.0050.290.000.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0385.7165.670.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0366.6732.240.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0314.2929.15-0.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0328.5739.44-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0316.6736.35-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0023.46-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0350.0056.260.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0038.26-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.030.0028.15-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0320.0032.60-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.23-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.32-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0366.6775.370.000.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0024.19-0.00-0.02
UCLAP120.000.03100.0083.550.000.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0325.0043.26-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.000.0357.1436.050.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.0333.3345.58-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0342.8642.47-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0023.47-0.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0383.3368.880.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0387.5075.320.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0357.1443.680.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0357.1444.160.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0342.8647.69-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.000.0360.0051.780.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0366.6754.420.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.710.0333.3340.49-0.24-0.01
MississippiSEC0.710.0371.4346.010.31-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.0350.0043.610.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0019.30-0.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0371.4370.330.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0350.0056.430.000.00
VCUA100.000.0385.7178.150.000.02
Washington St.P120.710.0350.0036.820.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.710.0375.0073.840.360.01
BaylorB120.000.03100.0074.460.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0027.250.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0375.0067.660.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.0371.4359.850.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0383.3361.490.000.01
DrexelCAA0.830.0342.8636.82-0.12-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0385.7162.410.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0385.7155.890.000.00
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0086.250.000.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.620.0333.3345.60-0.21-0.00
MarylandB100.000.0385.7156.490.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.0371.4365.740.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0320.0041.93-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.710.0350.0061.810.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.830.0340.0030.80-0.17-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0075.010.000.01
PacificWCC0.620.0350.0049.010.00-0.00
PennIvy0.000.0340.0057.97-0.000.00
Penn St.B100.000.0362.5043.960.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0385.7169.010.000.01
RutgersB100.830.0383.3344.770.56-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.620.03100.0089.040.620.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.320.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0383.3370.360.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0033.44-0.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0360.0048.590.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.000.0333.3364.14-0.000.01