live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Nov 20, 2014.


Buffalo

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:82.2
Current RPI:63
Expected SOS:121
Current SOS:93
Current Record:2-1
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-3
Current OOC Record:2-1
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:62
Expected OOC SOS:170



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-37.00.01%
27-414.00.09%
26-517.10.23%
25-621.90.84%
24-729.42.11%
23-836.25.34%
22-945.18.70%
21-1055.612.28%
20-1167.416.14%
19-1281.816.96%
18-1396.914.48%
17-14113.810.57%
16-15131.86.37%
15-16149.53.62%
14-17169.41.40%
13-18186.30.63%
12-19209.60.17%
11-20215.00.02%
10-21233.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Buffalo.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14South Dakota St. (170.7)SumH69-67W100%0.0
11-16Kentucky (4.1)SECA71-52L0%0.0
11-18UT Arlington (149.9)SBA68-74W100%0.0
11-21Montana St. (309.7)BSkyH0-092%17.2
11-25Grand Canyon (249.9)WACA0-061%3.4
11-29Canisius (124.1)MAACN0-057%2.2
12-3St. Bonaventure (148.7)A10A0-041%-2.8
12-7Robert Morris (275.1)NECA0-073%7.2
12-16Drexel (233.9)CAAH0-080%10.0
12-19Niagara (288.0)MAACH0-090%15.5
12-28Wisconsin (5.8)B10A0-05%-20.2
12-30Binghamton (268.9)AEA0-070%6.4
1-3Cornell (258.9)IvyH0-085%12.6
1-7Miami OH (238.8)MACA0-066%5.1
1-10Western Michigan (121.6)MACA0-043%-2.1
1-14Northern Illinois (209.2)MACH0-079%9.9
1-17Miami OH (238.8)MACH0-085%12.3
1-21Central Michigan (225.2)MACA0-063%4.1
1-24Ohio (126.0)MACA0-043%-2.0
1-27Western Michigan (121.6)MACH0-066%5.1
1-31Kent St. (126.6)MACH0-067%5.2
2-4Ball St. (248.8)MACA0-067%5.3
2-7Akron (84.2)MACA0-033%-5.4
2-10Toledo (81.8)MACH0-058%2.5
2-14Central Michigan (225.2)MACH0-083%11.3
2-18Eastern Michigan (173.1)MACA0-052%0.5
2-21Bowling Green (98.2)MACA0-039%-3.4
2-24Akron (84.2)MACH0-056%1.8
2-28Kent St. (126.6)MACA0-043%-2.0
3-3Ohio (126.0)MACH0-067%5.2
3-6Bowling Green (98.2)MACH0-062%3.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Buffalo's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Buffalo's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Buffalo.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BuffaloMAC34.7226.3176.9264.8918.707.83
OhioMAC0.004.0550.0056.110.000.49
AkronMAC0.004.02100.0070.790.001.67
Miami OHMAC0.003.9950.0035.060.00-1.19
Kent St.MAC0.003.99100.0059.940.000.79
Bowling GreenMAC0.003.98100.0063.930.001.11
Central MichiganMAC0.003.95100.0042.240.00-0.61
Western MichiganMAC0.003.93100.0057.310.000.57
ToledoMAC0.002.4750.0064.000.000.69
Ball St.MAC0.002.440.0036.35-0.00-0.67
Eastern MichiganMAC0.002.44100.0050.570.000.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.002.44100.0047.070.00-0.14
Grand CanyonWAC5.561.7633.3351.04-1.850.04
St. BonaventureA100.001.7650.0050.010.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.001.73100.0059.060.000.31
NiagaraMAAC0.001.7050.0029.790.00-0.69
KentuckySEC16.671.70100.0084.7816.671.18
Montana St.BSky0.001.690.0024.37-0.00-0.87
UT ArlingtonSB16.671.69100.0057.1616.670.24
BinghamtonAE0.001.670.0038.54-0.00-0.38
CornellIvy0.001.6750.0041.820.00-0.27
Robert MorrisNEC0.001.6433.3338.26-0.00-0.39
DrexelCAA0.001.610.0038.77-0.00-0.36
South Dakota St.Sum16.671.610.0051.19-16.670.04
WisconsinB100.001.61100.0081.340.001.01
NorthwesternB100.000.24100.0044.320.00-0.03
DaytonA100.000.20100.0072.390.000.09
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.200.0058.38-0.000.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.180.0036.60-0.00-0.05
SienaMAAC0.000.1733.3359.54-0.000.03
UMKCWAC0.000.1750.0059.510.000.03
Penn St.B100.000.1466.6746.550.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.1450.0058.740.000.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.140.0026.72-0.00-0.07
IdahoBSky4.170.1450.0047.210.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.140.0026.57-0.00-0.07
ManhattanMAAC0.000.140.0057.31-0.000.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.12100.0068.990.000.05
BradleyMVC2.780.120.0025.25-2.78-0.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1250.0039.830.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.000.120.0029.13-0.00-0.05
New HampshireAE0.000.120.0039.66-0.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.120.0034.44-0.00-0.04
DelawareCAA0.000.120.0042.76-0.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.1250.0038.380.00-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1233.3334.62-0.00-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.000.120.0033.87-0.00-0.04
PennIvy0.000.120.0025.99-0.00-0.06
Appalachian St.SB0.000.120.0015.48-0.00-0.08
EvansvilleMVC0.000.12100.0063.340.000.03
YaleIvy0.000.120.0054.91-0.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.120.0035.57-0.00-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.120.0033.91-0.00-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.000.110.0017.64-0.00-0.07
BryantNEC0.000.1150.0051.350.000.00
IPFWSum0.000.11100.0063.800.000.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.1150.0053.110.000.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.110.0050.29-0.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1150.0043.770.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.110.0043.95-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.110.0051.39-0.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.1150.0055.360.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.1150.0050.840.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.11100.0028.940.00-0.05
Idaho St.BSky0.000.110.0033.58-0.00-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.000.110.0045.27-0.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.090.0045.95-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0966.6743.460.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.09100.0071.680.000.04
George WashingtonA100.000.09100.0071.490.000.04
HarvardIvy0.000.0950.0067.810.000.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0029.01-0.00-0.04
UMass LowellAE0.000.0933.3331.05-0.00-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0933.3333.86-0.00-0.03
IUPUISum0.000.0933.3328.81-0.00-0.04
MaineAE0.000.090.0022.72-0.00-0.05
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0950.0061.730.000.02
AlbanyAE0.000.0950.0064.020.000.02
HartfordAE0.000.0966.6738.100.00-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0950.0063.340.000.02
VermontAE0.000.0950.0066.190.000.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0850.0051.650.000.00
South DakotaSum0.000.080.0035.01-0.00-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.080.0030.93-0.00-0.03
IowaB100.000.0866.6773.790.000.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.080.0032.90-0.00-0.03
DuquesneA100.000.080.0051.69-0.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0850.0040.830.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.08100.0063.480.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.08100.0073.880.000.04
North DakotaBSky0.000.080.0039.05-0.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.080.0024.28-0.00-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0850.0043.010.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0866.6757.950.000.01
KansasB122.780.0850.0060.040.000.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.080.0059.82-0.000.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.070.0033.78-0.00-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0633.3357.17-0.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0650.0061.290.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.060.0046.51-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.000.0650.0030.220.00-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0666.6749.560.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0650.0045.250.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0650.0046.350.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0049.85-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0650.0071.660.000.03
BrownIvy0.000.0633.3338.98-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0633.3350.49-0.000.00
La SalleA100.000.06100.0056.340.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.060.0036.81-0.00-0.02
George MasonA100.000.0633.3324.67-0.00-0.03
MichiganB100.000.06100.0067.240.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0650.0066.390.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0038.55-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0650.0062.850.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0053.31-0.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.060.0034.11-0.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.06100.0041.770.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.060.0049.27-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0650.0035.720.00-0.02
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0070.180.000.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0650.0055.890.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.06100.0044.020.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.060.0041.47-0.00-0.01
USCP120.000.0633.3326.65-0.00-0.03
UtahP120.000.0650.0063.450.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0650.0046.460.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.060.0047.13-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.06100.0068.930.000.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.060.0028.57-0.00-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.060.0046.79-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.060.0055.69-0.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.06100.0049.500.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0650.0035.120.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.060.0044.88-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.060.0060.93-0.000.01
IndianaB100.000.06100.0064.540.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.060.0031.29-0.00-0.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0650.0043.990.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.060.0043.54-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.060.0058.87-0.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.06100.0051.730.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.060.0034.17-0.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0650.0062.330.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.06100.0051.780.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0633.3364.95-0.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0024.25-0.00-0.03
PittsburghACC0.000.06100.0057.350.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0650.0061.220.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0650.0037.010.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0650.0053.850.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0039.05-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0650.0060.330.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.060.0055.09-0.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.060.0048.12-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.000.06100.0055.450.000.01
TroySB0.000.060.0044.62-0.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.060.0044.27-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0550.0055.200.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.05100.0062.990.000.01
DukeACC0.000.05100.0085.060.000.04
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0533.3338.23-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.05100.0076.230.000.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.05100.0067.660.000.02
TexasB120.000.05100.0084.350.000.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.05100.0059.190.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.050.0049.48-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0533.3351.93-0.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.050.0047.69-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.000.05100.0055.290.000.01
UCLAP120.000.05100.0064.410.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.05100.0056.850.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0550.0068.630.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0550.0054.530.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0566.6753.710.000.00
ColoradoP120.000.03100.0068.310.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0068.310.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0350.0053.410.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0032.81-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0366.6739.300.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.03100.0056.370.000.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0333.3343.60-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6770.630.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.030.0036.86-0.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.03100.0058.890.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0366.6741.230.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.03100.0039.730.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0021.31-0.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0063.68-0.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0350.0052.180.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0016.22-0.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0067.300.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.03100.0080.040.000.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.03100.0063.690.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0350.0052.080.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.030.0031.05-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.03100.0065.680.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.03100.0078.150.000.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0350.0046.570.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0019.35-0.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.030.0036.83-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0065.390.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.030.0066.43-0.000.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.03100.0061.790.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0025.74-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0060.930.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.030.0041.07-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0333.3335.35-0.00-0.01
LafayettePat0.000.0366.6764.300.000.01
LehighPat0.000.030.0039.97-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0350.0054.560.000.00
MarylandB100.000.03100.0067.780.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0325.0030.26-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.030.0031.43-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0366.6761.240.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0035.44-0.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.03100.0061.020.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0053.320.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0350.0034.150.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0053.570.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.030.0041.28-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0350.0064.340.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.0333.3347.64-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0333.3345.60-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.000.03100.0064.920.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.03100.0049.930.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.03100.0051.640.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0350.0046.970.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0074.610.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0350.0037.190.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0062.600.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0077.610.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.03100.0063.440.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0366.6760.300.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0036.790.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0043.860.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0350.0059.620.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0048.650.00-0.00