Buffalo

Conference:	MAC
Expected RPI:	70.7
Current RPI:	90
Expected SOS:	124
Current SOS:	156
Current Record:	13-6
Expected Record:	18-9
Current Conf Record:	7-2
Expected Conf Record:	12-4
Probability of Auto Bid:	21.84%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-1
Current OOC Record:	6-4
Expected OOC Record:	6-5
Expected OOC RPI:	93
Expected OOC SOS:	111

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
21-6	35.7	1.37%
20-7	44.3	8.82%
19-8	55.4	22.80%
18-9	68.5	31.32%
17-10	84.0	23.64%
16-11	99.2	9.47%
15-12	113.6	2.21%
14-13	130.6	0.36%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Buffalo.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	St. Peter's (280.4)	MAAC	H	72-65	W	100%	0.0
11-16	Cornell (178.3)	Ivy	H	68-59	W	100%	0.0
11-19	Princeton (117.6)	Ivy	A	61-53	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Canisius (322.0)	MAAC	H	94-59	W	100%	0.0
11-30	Dayton (77.1)	A10	A	55-84	W	100%	0.0
12-3	St. Bonaventure (93.8)	A10	H	60-66	L	0%	0.0
12-7	Niagara (208.7)	MAAC	A	74-82	W	100%	0.0
12-10	Youngstown St. (163.1)	Horz	H	80-72	W	100%	0.0
12-20	Brigham Young (44.9)	WCC	A	93-78	L	0%	0.0
12-28	Temple (24.4)	A10	A	87-85	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Kent St. (84.8)	MAC	H	66-65	W	100%	0.0
1-11	Ohio (63.5)	MAC	A	60-52	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Miami OH (210.4)	MAC	A	52-51	L	0%	0.0
1-18	Akron (49.0)	MAC	H	82-70	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Bowling Green (155.1)	MAC	A	66-68	W	100%	0.0
1-24	Eastern Michigan (246.9)	MAC	H	65-47	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Northern Illinois (337.4)	MAC	A	59-74	W	100%	0.0
2-1	Ball St. (222.5)	MAC	H	73-57	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Toledo (277.2)	MAC	A	65-72	W	100%	0.0
2-8	Central Michigan (271.4)	MAC	A	0-0		78%	8.5
2-11	Western Michigan (174.1)	MAC	H	0-0		85%	11.4
2-14	Kent St. (84.8)	MAC	A	0-0		43%	-1.8
2-18	South Dakota St. (55.2)	Sum	A	0-0		34%	-4.6
2-22	Ohio (63.5)	MAC	H	0-0		62%	3.3
2-25	Miami OH (210.4)	MAC	H	0-0		85%	11.2
2-29	Akron (49.0)	MAC	A	0-0		33%	-5.0
3-3	Bowling Green (155.1)	MAC	H	0-0		75%	7.2

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Buffalo's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Buffalo's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Buffalo.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Buffalo	MAC	26.18	26.18	72.84	69.97	11.96	10.45
Akron	MAC	3.14	4.44	71.43	70.35	1.34	1.81
Bowling Green	MAC	3.07	4.43	50.00	51.50	0.00	0.13
Kent St.	MAC	3.07	4.43	75.00	72.07	1.53	1.96
Miami OH	MAC	3.12	4.43	26.32	32.34	-1.48	-1.56
Ohio	MAC	3.02	4.41	80.95	77.78	1.87	2.45
Toledo	MAC	3.14	2.56	40.00	42.26	-0.63	-0.40
Western Michigan	MAC	0.57	2.56	40.91	43.93	-0.10	-0.31
Central Michigan	MAC	0.56	2.52	28.57	34.64	-0.24	-0.77
Eastern Michigan	MAC	3.02	2.49	42.86	39.71	-0.43	-0.51
Ball St.	MAC	3.01	2.49	57.89	59.54	0.48	0.47
Northern Illinois	MAC	3.00	2.49	5.56	7.58	-2.67	-2.11
Temple	A10	2.81	2.07	76.19	74.20	1.47	1.00
Niagara	MAAC	2.81	2.04	39.13	42.92	-0.61	-0.29
St. Peter's	MAAC	2.86	2.04	22.73	25.43	-1.56	-1.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	2.87	2.01	57.89	57.55	0.45	0.30
Canisius	MAAC	2.87	2.01	18.18	20.51	-1.82	-1.18
Dayton	A10	2.82	1.98	63.64	63.06	0.77	0.52
Cornell	Ivy	2.77	1.95	38.89	43.04	-0.61	-0.27
Youngstown St.	Horz	2.75	1.95	52.63	53.51	0.14	0.14
Princeton	Ivy	2.70	1.92	44.44	51.12	-0.30	0.04
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	1.91	73.91	75.82	0.03	0.99
Brigham Young	WCC	2.63	1.85	73.91	75.15	1.26	0.93
Duquesne	A10	0.25	0.32	59.09	56.35	0.04	0.04
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.38	0.26	81.82	80.43	0.24	0.16
Siena	MAAC	0.30	0.25	45.45	45.55	-0.03	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.38	0.23	30.00	30.06	-0.15	-0.09
Valparaiso	Horz	0.26	0.23	65.22	63.61	0.08	0.06
Wright St.	Horz	0.19	0.23	41.67	40.61	-0.03	-0.04
Detroit	Horz	0.19	0.23	47.83	49.03	-0.01	-0.00
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.35	0.22	77.27	73.45	0.19	0.10
Rider	MAAC	0.24	0.22	37.50	38.52	-0.06	-0.05
Fairfield	MAAC	0.34	0.22	54.55	54.30	0.03	0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.28	0.22	79.17	80.10	0.16	0.13
Morehead St.	OVC	0.20	0.19	45.45	46.99	-0.02	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.19	0.19	65.22	63.74	0.06	0.05
Manhattan	MAAC	0.22	0.19	68.00	69.07	0.08	0.07
Marist	MAAC	0.23	0.19	34.78	33.43	-0.07	-0.06
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.07	0.17	14.29	17.17	-0.05	-0.11
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.20	0.17	54.55	56.84	0.02	0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.19	0.16	34.78	35.50	-0.06	-0.05
Fordham	A10	0.13	0.16	40.91	34.50	-0.02	-0.05
Arkansas St.	SB	0.19	0.16	37.50	38.33	-0.05	-0.04
George Washington	A10	0.13	0.16	34.78	32.08	-0.04	-0.06
Oakland	Sum	0.06	0.16	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.07	0.13	27.27	23.80	-0.03	-0.07
Columbia	Ivy	0.21	0.13	55.00	54.80	0.02	0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.07	0.13	90.48	87.91	0.06	0.10
Yale	Ivy	0.07	0.13	72.22	63.19	0.03	0.04
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.20	0.13	56.52	57.72	0.03	0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.19	0.13	19.05	21.29	-0.11	-0.08
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.19	0.13	19.05	22.37	-0.12	-0.07
Rhode Island	A10	0.18	0.13	20.83	20.60	-0.11	-0.08
South Dakota	Sum	0.11	0.13	26.32	28.83	-0.05	-0.05
Purdue	B10	0.19	0.13	65.22	60.58	0.06	0.03
Robert Morris	NEC	0.18	0.13	68.00	70.03	0.07	0.05
Charlotte	A10	0.06	0.13	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Utah St.	WAC	0.17	0.13	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.12	0.13	70.83	68.82	0.05	0.05
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.12	0.13	62.50	62.49	0.03	0.03
St. Louis	A10	0.24	0.13	77.27	77.67	0.13	0.07
Minnesota	B10	0.11	0.13	69.57	61.31	0.04	0.03
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.00	0.13	80.77	80.75	0.00	0.08
Portland	WCC	0.11	0.13	21.74	21.70	-0.06	-0.07
West Virginia	BE	0.12	0.13	65.22	65.17	0.04	0.04
Marshall	CUSA	0.12	0.12	59.09	59.72	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.12	0.12	33.33	37.25	-0.04	-0.03
Butler	Horz	0.13	0.10	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.07	0.10	35.00	39.38	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.07	0.10	34.78	32.06	-0.02	-0.04
Austin Peay	OVC	0.06	0.10	33.33	35.97	-0.02	-0.03
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.00	0.10	56.52	53.10	0.00	0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.19	0.10	21.74	22.76	-0.11	-0.05
Binghamton	AE	0.18	0.10	0.00	4.02	-0.18	-0.09
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.18	0.10	56.52	55.20	0.02	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.06	0.10	45.45	41.20	-0.01	-0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.12	0.10	40.00	40.18	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.10	34.78	35.20	-0.02	-0.03
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.10	31.82	33.83	-0.02	-0.03
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.13	0.09	4.35	9.66	-0.11	-0.08
Massachusetts	A10	0.00	0.09	73.91	68.58	0.00	0.04
Richmond	A10	0.13	0.09	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Florida International	SB	0.12	0.09	33.33	37.16	-0.04	-0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.09	81.82	81.49	0.03	0.06
Michigan St.	B10	0.12	0.09	76.19	72.91	0.06	0.04
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.00	0.09	61.90	63.52	0.00	0.03
Santa Clara	WCC	0.11	0.09	28.57	26.30	-0.05	-0.04
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.12	0.09	76.19	75.94	0.06	0.05
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.09	52.63	48.41	0.00	-0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.09	26.32	29.79	-0.03	-0.04
Penn St.	B10	0.14	0.07	41.67	38.67	-0.02	-0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.14	0.07	73.91	75.00	0.07	0.03
Illinois	B10	0.14	0.07	72.73	64.43	0.06	0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.07	0.07	26.32	29.71	-0.03	-0.03
Belmont	ASun	0.07	0.07	69.57	73.28	0.03	0.03
Cincinnati	BE	0.07	0.07	69.57	65.47	0.03	0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.07	0.07	45.45	44.02	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.14	0.07	70.83	64.42	0.06	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.07	0.07	86.96	85.46	0.05	0.05
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.07	0.07	28.57	30.17	-0.03	-0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.07	0.07	69.57	65.87	0.03	0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.07	0.07	12.50	13.44	-0.05	-0.05
Delaware	CAA	0.13	0.07	47.83	50.65	-0.01	0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.13	0.07	73.91	74.91	0.06	0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.13	0.07	59.09	50.82	0.02	0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.13	0.06	4.76	9.95	-0.12	-0.05
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.13	0.06	31.82	42.13	-0.05	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	16.67	23.02	-0.04	-0.03
College of Charleston	SC	0.00	0.06	58.33	59.98	0.00	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	18.18	22.22	-0.04	-0.04
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.00	0.06	35.00	35.31	-0.00	-0.02
Longwood	ind	0.11	0.06	30.00	27.84	-0.04	-0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.06	54.17	54.75	0.01	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.11	0.06	59.09	57.76	0.02	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.00	0.06	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.00
North Dakota	GWC	0.00	0.06	33.33	41.31	-0.00	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.11	0.06	33.33	33.82	-0.04	-0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.06	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.00
Southern Utah	Sum	0.00	0.06	45.45	44.30	-0.00	-0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.11	0.06	90.91	87.74	0.09	0.05
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.06	0.06	57.14	60.75	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.06	40.91	39.82	-0.01	-0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.06	0.06	34.78	37.24	-0.02	-0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.06	0.06	34.78	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.12	0.06	79.17	78.10	0.07	0.04
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.12	0.06	39.13	36.10	-0.03	-0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.12	0.06	54.55	56.09	0.01	0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.05	0.06	13.64	16.35	-0.04	-0.04
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.06	70.83	71.64	0.02	0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	17.39	24.41	-0.04	-0.03
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.06	86.36	83.09	0.04	0.04
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	8.70	11.67	-0.05	-0.05
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.06	61.90	67.23	0.01	0.02
Louisville	BE	0.06	0.06	78.26	72.66	0.03	0.03
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.06	0.06	83.33	84.76	0.04	0.04
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.06	0.06	78.26	72.34	0.03	0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	37.58	-0.03	-0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.00	0.06	68.18	67.64	0.00	0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.06	0.06	62.50	61.50	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.11	0.06	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.06	0.06	80.00	78.06	0.04	0.03
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.06	17.39	20.97	-0.04	-0.04
Albany	AE	0.07	0.03	60.00	60.42	0.01	0.01
American	Pat	0.07	0.03	65.22	63.79	0.02	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.07	0.03	42.86	41.13	-0.01	-0.01
Boston University	AE	0.07	0.03	48.00	51.88	-0.00	0.00
DePaul	BE	0.07	0.03	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.07	0.03	33.33	34.47	-0.02	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.07	0.03	54.17	49.44	0.01	-0.00
Samford	SC	0.07	0.03	33.33	35.26	-0.02	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.07	0.03	66.67	68.05	0.02	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.07	0.03	42.86	39.66	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.07	0.03	54.55	57.69	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.07	0.03	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.01
Elon	SC	0.07	0.03	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.07	0.03	72.73	71.71	0.03	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.07	0.03	56.52	54.22	0.01	0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.07	0.03	43.48	42.95	-0.01	-0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.07	0.03	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.07	0.03	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.07	0.03	82.61	84.57	0.05	0.02
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.03	90.91	83.85	0.04	0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.03	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.00	0.03	73.91	68.43	0.00	0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.05	0.03	80.95	76.42	0.03	0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.06	0.03	82.61	81.44	0.04	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.00	0.03	69.57	68.90	0.00	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.03	68.18	69.68	0.02	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.03	13.64	16.14	-0.04	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	64.53	0.02	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.03	35.00	40.78	-0.02	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.00	0.03	18.18	21.13	-0.00	-0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.03	19.05	24.61	-0.04	-0.02
Texas St.	Slnd	0.06	0.03	22.22	27.62	-0.03	-0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.00	0.03	35.00	35.26	-0.00	-0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.05	0.03	55.56	58.01	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.05	0.03	18.18	15.01	-0.03	-0.02
Washington	P12	0.00	0.03	69.57	66.54	0.00	0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	80.00	76.84	0.03	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.03	75.00	73.97	0.03	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.03	47.37	42.16	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.06	0.03	68.18	69.10	0.02	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.06	0.03	43.48	44.25	-0.01	-0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.06	0.03	30.43	29.50	-0.02	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.00	0.03	66.67	62.65	0.00	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.03	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.06	0.03	8.70	12.13	-0.05	-0.02
Long Island	NEC	0.06	0.03	70.83	71.05	0.02	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.06	0.03	63.64	56.71	0.02	0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.03	100.00	94.55	0.06	0.03
Radford	BSth	0.06	0.03	8.70	13.10	-0.05	-0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.06	0.03	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.06	0.03	95.83	92.01	0.05	0.03
Texas	B12	0.06	0.03	60.87	61.37	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.06	0.03	45.45	46.08	-0.01	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.06	0.03	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.06	0.03	82.61	80.42	0.04	0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.00	0.03	34.78	34.61	-0.00	-0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	45.70	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.03	91.30	87.18	0.05	0.02
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	57.15	0.01	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.00	0.03	60.00	62.49	0.00	0.01