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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Buffalo

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:90.0
Current RPI:90
Expected SOS:88
Current SOS:88
Current Record:19-14
Expected Record:19-14
Current Conf Record:13-8
Expected Conf Record:13-8
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:12-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:129
Expected OOC SOS:80



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1490.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Buffalo.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Old Dominion (140.0)CUSAA77-58L0%0.0
11-18Saint Joseph's (22.0)A10A89-67L0%0.0
11-21North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACN68-86W100%0.0
11-22Vermont (126.0)AEN77-71W100%0.0
11-28Canisius (220.0)MAACH98-96W100%0.0
12-2St. Bonaventure (30.0)A10H58-60L0%0.0
12-5Duke (20.0)ACCA82-59L0%0.0
12-7Iowa St. (23.0)B12A84-63L0%0.0
12-12Binghamton (299.0)AEH80-64W100%0.0
12-19Montana St. (260.0)BSkyH80-73W100%0.0
12-22VCU (37.0)A10A90-69L0%0.0
12-29Delaware (274.0)CAAH99-79W100%0.0
1-5Akron (34.0)MACH71-75L0%0.0
1-8Kent St. (124.0)MACA67-76W100%0.0
1-12Eastern Michigan (113.0)MACA81-69L0%0.0
1-16Central Michigan (156.0)MACH74-61W100%0.0
1-19Miami OH (195.0)MACA60-77W100%0.0
1-23Western Michigan (202.0)MACA91-71L0%0.0
1-26Ball St. (179.0)MACH76-64W100%0.0
1-30Toledo (182.0)MACA68-73W100%0.0
2-2Northern Illinois (136.0)MACA78-90W100%0.0
2-6Eastern Michigan (113.0)MACH80-70W100%0.0
2-9Toledo (182.0)MACH69-71L0%0.0
2-12Ohio (81.0)MACH75-94L0%0.0
2-16Akron (34.0)MACA80-70L0%0.0
2-20Bowling Green (200.0)MACH88-74W100%0.0
2-23Kent St. (124.0)MACH87-70W100%0.0
2-27Ohio (81.0)MACA103-96L0%0.0
3-1Miami OH (195.0)MACH59-67L0%0.0
3-4Bowling Green (200.0)MACA83-87W100%0.0
3-10Miami OH (195.0)MACN94-81W100%0.0
3-11Ohio (81.0)MACN74-88W100%0.0
3-12Akron (34.0)MACN61-64W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Buffalo's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Buffalo's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Buffalo.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BuffaloMAC26.4226.4258.3958.394.434.43
AkronMAC5.385.3876.6776.672.872.87
Miami OHMAC5.325.3237.9337.93-1.28-1.28
OhioMAC5.325.3264.2964.291.521.52
Bowling GreenMAC3.953.9546.6746.67-0.26-0.26
Kent St.MAC3.933.9362.0762.070.950.95
Eastern MichiganMAC3.833.8348.1548.15-0.14-0.14
ToledoMAC3.803.8051.7251.720.130.13
Northern IllinoisMAC2.422.4260.7160.710.520.52
Ball St.MAC2.402.4060.0060.000.480.48
Central MichiganMAC2.342.3450.0050.000.000.00
Western MichiganMAC2.302.3034.4834.48-0.71-0.71
St. BonaventureA101.731.7372.4172.410.770.77
VermontAE1.641.6462.5062.500.410.41
Saint Joseph'sA101.631.6378.7978.790.940.94
VCUA101.631.6369.7069.700.640.64
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.611.6133.3333.33-0.54-0.54
CanisiusMAAC1.591.5943.7543.75-0.20-0.20
BinghamtonAE1.591.5927.5927.59-0.71-0.71
Old DominionCUSA1.561.5661.7661.760.370.37
DukeACC1.541.5468.7568.750.580.58
DelawareCAA1.521.5224.1424.14-0.78-0.78
Iowa St.B121.521.5264.5264.520.440.44
Montana St.BSky1.521.5244.8344.83-0.16-0.16
Cleveland St.Horz0.290.2923.3323.33-0.15-0.15
South Carolina St.MEAC0.210.2154.8454.840.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.190.1924.1424.14-0.10-0.10
DaytonA100.190.1978.1278.120.110.11
MarshallCUSA0.190.1951.5251.520.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.190.1921.8821.88-0.10-0.10
NortheasternCAA0.170.1753.1253.120.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
DetroitHorz0.150.1548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.150.1530.0030.00-0.06-0.06
New HampshireAE0.140.1458.6258.620.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
UMBCAE0.140.1421.8821.88-0.08-0.08
MaristMAAC0.140.1423.3323.33-0.08-0.08
LipscombASun0.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
DavidsonA100.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
MassachusettsA100.140.1443.7543.75-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Penn St.B100.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Stony BrookAE0.120.1280.0080.000.070.07
Florida St.ACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Green BayHorz0.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
Saint LouisA100.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
SienaMAAC0.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
VillanovaBE0.120.1285.2985.290.080.08
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
George WashingtonA100.110.1169.7069.700.050.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Rhode IslandA100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
RichmondA100.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
HofstraCAA0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
William & MaryCAA0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
North DakotaBSky0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1024.2424.24-0.05-0.05
AlbanyAE0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
HartfordAE0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
UMass LowellAE0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
IPFWSum0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
IUPUISum0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
FordhamA100.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
La SalleA100.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
George MasonA100.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Michigan St.B100.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
North FloridaASun0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.070.073.453.45-0.07-0.07
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0764.2964.290.020.02
TulsaAmer0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
PittsburghACC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
OklahomaB120.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0760.7160.710.020.02
UCFAmer0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
FloridaSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
PurdueB100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0722.2222.22-0.04-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
TowsonCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
NJITASun0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
CornellIvy0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0565.5265.520.010.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0511.1111.11-0.04-0.04
TCUB120.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Notre DameACC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.040.0470.0070.000.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
ArmyPat0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0382.1482.140.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
ColoradoP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
IllinoisB100.020.0244.1244.12-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
BryantNEC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
KentuckySEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
LehighPat0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Miami FLACC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
AmericanPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
UTSACUSA0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02