live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Nov 27, 2014.


Buffalo

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:66.7
Current RPI:20
Expected SOS:102
Current SOS:37
Current Record:3-1
Expected Record:19-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:3-1
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:45
Expected OOC SOS:132



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-412.30.15%
25-519.10.61%
24-623.32.08%
23-729.25.22%
22-837.79.25%
21-946.214.10%
20-1056.716.75%
19-1168.617.76%
18-1281.514.11%
17-1395.29.77%
16-14109.36.06%
15-15124.32.58%
14-16141.21.03%
13-17152.70.36%
12-18172.40.11%
11-19186.20.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Buffalo.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14South Dakota St. (154.5)SumH69-67W100%0.0
11-16Kentucky (3.6)SECA71-52L0%0.0
11-18UT Arlington (162.0)SBA68-74W100%0.0
11-25Grand Canyon (281.9)WACA64-80W100%0.0
11-29Canisius (151.4)MAACN0-065%4.7
12-3St. Bonaventure (146.3)A10A0-046%-1.1
12-7Robert Morris (232.1)NECA0-070%6.3
12-16Drexel (225.6)CAAH0-084%11.7
12-19Niagara (272.3)MAACH0-091%16.2
12-28Wisconsin (4.7)B10A0-04%-21.1
12-30Binghamton (319.9)AEA0-086%12.8
1-3Cornell (243.9)IvyH0-086%12.8
1-7Miami OH (284.8)MACA0-078%9.3
1-10Western Michigan (149.2)MACA0-052%0.6
1-14Northern Illinois (203.2)MACH0-080%10.2
1-17Miami OH (284.8)MACH0-092%16.5
1-21Central Michigan (161.4)MACA0-054%1.1
1-24Ohio (130.1)MACA0-049%-0.2
1-27Western Michigan (149.2)MACH0-074%7.8
1-31Kent St. (92.1)MACH0-061%3.3
2-4Ball St. (177.2)MACA0-056%1.8
2-7Akron (98.1)MACA0-037%-3.9
2-10Toledo (97.1)MACH0-061%3.3
2-14Central Michigan (161.4)MACH0-076%8.3
2-18Eastern Michigan (157.0)MACA0-054%1.1
2-21Bowling Green (110.3)MACA0-045%-1.5
2-24Akron (98.1)MACH0-061%3.3
2-28Kent St. (92.1)MACA0-037%-3.9
3-3Ohio (130.1)MACH0-072%7.0
3-6Bowling Green (110.3)MACH0-068%5.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Buffalo's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Buffalo's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Buffalo.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BuffaloMAC30.6326.3085.0067.9421.449.44
OhioMAC0.004.1666.6753.310.000.28
AkronMAC0.004.1460.0067.790.001.47
Miami OHMAC0.004.1140.0027.53-0.00-1.85
Kent St.MAC0.004.1075.0067.360.001.42
Bowling GreenMAC0.004.10100.0061.260.000.92
Central MichiganMAC0.004.08100.0057.030.000.57
Western MichiganMAC0.004.0450.0049.020.00-0.08
ToledoMAC0.002.5340.0061.16-0.000.57
Ball St.MAC0.002.5033.3346.60-0.00-0.17
Eastern MichiganMAC0.002.50100.0052.770.000.14
Northern IllinoisMAC0.002.5050.0048.720.00-0.06
St. BonaventureA100.001.8175.0052.010.000.07
Grand CanyonWAC14.791.7950.0048.000.00-0.07
CanisiusMAAC0.001.7850.0053.450.000.12
CornellIvy0.001.7542.8642.71-0.00-0.26
NiagaraMAAC0.001.7533.3331.00-0.00-0.67
BinghamtonAE0.001.720.0023.40-0.00-0.92
KentuckySEC15.001.72100.0089.1215.001.35
UT ArlingtonSB14.791.7275.0055.037.400.17
DrexelCAA0.001.7020.0037.32-0.00-0.43
Robert MorrisNEC0.001.6933.3348.44-0.00-0.05
South Dakota St.Sum12.501.6750.0056.880.000.23
WisconsinB100.001.67100.0087.290.001.24
NorthwesternB100.000.2483.3338.760.00-0.05
DaytonA100.000.2075.0071.300.000.09
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1816.6732.00-0.00-0.07
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1850.0040.660.00-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1750.0047.410.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.1733.3361.73-0.000.04
UMKCWAC0.000.1720.0042.43-0.00-0.03
Penn St.B100.000.1783.3348.340.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.150.0019.84-0.00-0.09
IonaMAAC0.000.1480.0079.440.000.09
Chicago St.WAC0.000.140.0018.96-0.00-0.09
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1425.0049.08-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1420.0040.88-0.00-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1450.0052.250.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.1225.0023.91-0.00-0.06
NortheasternCAA0.000.1280.0067.100.000.04
OaklandHorz0.000.1216.6726.26-0.00-0.06
New HampshireAE0.000.1233.3346.25-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1266.6747.100.00-0.01
BradleyMVC1.250.1250.0031.400.00-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1250.0028.400.00-0.05
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1275.0069.010.000.04
LongwoodBSth0.000.1220.0022.33-0.00-0.06
DelawareCAA0.000.120.0019.53-0.00-0.07
DartmouthIvy0.000.120.0036.65-0.00-0.03
ElonCAA0.000.1240.0039.26-0.00-0.02
IPFWSum0.000.1266.6762.480.000.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.1225.0026.73-0.00-0.05
Wright St.Horz0.000.1250.0048.990.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.1166.6751.540.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1140.0032.81-0.00-0.04
MaristMAAC0.000.1120.0034.06-0.00-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1150.0052.540.000.01
PennIvy0.000.110.0023.53-0.00-0.06
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.1150.0056.120.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.1140.0043.47-0.00-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.1150.0032.470.00-0.04
YaleIvy0.000.1180.0070.930.000.05
Arkansas St.SB0.000.110.0036.05-0.00-0.03
UMBCAE0.000.110.0027.48-0.00-0.05
BryantNEC0.000.1133.3346.36-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0980.0072.320.000.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.090.0047.66-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0975.0069.240.000.03
IdahoBSky2.080.0933.3348.86-0.69-0.00
IUPUISum0.000.0940.0030.22-0.00-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.000.0980.0046.880.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0920.0038.45-0.00-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0950.0036.580.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0028.02-0.00-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0925.0049.53-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.000.0960.0059.160.000.02
AlbanyAE0.000.0950.0063.340.000.02
HartfordAE0.000.0980.0051.710.000.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0966.6773.130.000.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0920.0031.46-0.00-0.03
MassachusettsA100.000.0983.3366.830.000.03
Stony BrookAE0.000.0960.0068.620.000.03
UMass LowellAE0.000.0960.0041.750.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0950.0064.890.000.03
IowaB100.000.0966.6765.220.000.03
Miami FLACC0.000.09100.0078.880.000.05
USCP120.000.0950.0029.750.00-0.03
DuquesneA100.000.09100.0053.990.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0925.0043.61-0.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0875.0065.610.000.03
KansasB121.040.0875.0062.620.520.02
Montana St.BSky2.290.080.0020.51-2.29-0.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0825.0036.14-0.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.000.08100.0074.590.000.04
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0640.0054.55-0.000.01
PacificWCC0.000.0633.3332.18-0.00-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0660.0050.240.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.060.0033.42-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0033.90-0.00-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0680.0075.550.000.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0032.17-0.00-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0640.0053.54-0.000.00
DenverSum0.000.0650.0060.380.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.060.0035.88-0.00-0.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0660.0068.830.000.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0650.0050.720.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0640.0038.51-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.060.0038.79-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0675.0055.470.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0625.0043.27-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0680.0057.880.000.01
UtahP120.000.0675.0073.700.000.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0640.0045.07-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0675.0055.000.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0675.0066.060.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0680.0074.350.000.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0620.0031.24-0.00-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.000.060.0023.57-0.00-0.03
La SalleA100.000.06100.0056.910.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0683.3369.110.000.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0675.0046.860.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.060.0023.83-0.00-0.03
BrownIvy0.000.0616.6730.56-0.00-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.0620.0039.05-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0666.6764.030.000.02
George MasonA100.000.0620.0022.17-0.00-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0650.0051.380.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0660.0068.290.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0633.3329.78-0.00-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0625.0052.42-0.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0650.0042.050.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0650.0070.920.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0028.59-0.00-0.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0660.0057.910.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0620.0037.69-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0650.0063.970.000.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0625.0045.33-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0040.20-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0640.0047.94-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0666.6748.060.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.060.0044.27-0.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0675.0050.750.000.00
IndianaB100.000.0680.0056.380.000.01
Boston UniversityPat1.040.0625.0053.47-0.520.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0065.930.000.02
TexasB120.000.06100.0079.050.000.03
VCUA100.000.0680.0073.390.000.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.060.0030.72-0.00-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0640.0054.85-0.000.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0633.3338.66-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0680.0063.370.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0620.0029.36-0.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.060.0044.60-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0650.0045.460.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0666.6750.170.000.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0650.0055.020.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0675.0052.330.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0625.0033.76-0.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0016.54-0.00-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.060.0052.73-0.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0625.0045.71-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0660.0035.980.00-0.02
WagnerNEC0.000.060.0044.93-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.05100.0083.320.000.04
North CarolinaACC0.000.0580.0074.090.000.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0525.0039.34-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0580.0058.550.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0560.0062.400.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0560.0056.890.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0540.0036.39-0.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0333.3348.21-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.030.0028.00-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0375.0060.510.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.0366.6725.500.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0020.98-0.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0316.6745.35-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0360.0040.420.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0015.46-0.00-0.02
North DakotaBSky2.080.0333.3351.25-0.690.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0077.870.000.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0383.3384.390.000.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0366.6751.730.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0360.0055.000.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0375.0056.110.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.030.0030.50-0.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.03100.0069.590.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0340.0038.03-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC1.250.030.0019.02-1.25-0.02
FordhamA100.000.030.0026.23-0.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.03100.0064.010.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd1.250.030.0023.72-1.25-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0325.0045.04-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.03100.0052.770.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0320.0043.38-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.000.0320.0041.82-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.0340.0031.76-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0314.2930.86-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0320.0030.56-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0360.0056.430.000.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0325.0046.52-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0366.6756.430.000.00
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0056.410.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0380.0067.950.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0333.3366.19-0.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0325.0052.78-0.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.0380.0063.470.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0380.0070.550.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0050.620.000.00
Green BayHorz0.000.0375.0078.500.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0067.700.000.01
LafayettePat0.000.0360.0061.400.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0360.0039.990.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.03100.0071.310.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0320.0034.53-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0030.59-0.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0383.3368.400.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0350.0024.450.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0320.0037.96-0.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0079.690.000.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0360.0037.710.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0333.3335.76-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0057.070.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0078.390.000.02
LSUSEC0.000.0360.0056.260.000.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0053.040.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0045.140.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0320.0050.32-0.000.00
OregonP120.000.0360.0063.290.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0366.6746.480.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0068.660.000.01
UCLAP120.000.0366.6758.390.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0053.730.000.00