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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Buffalo

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:146.0
Current RPI:146
Expected SOS:130
Current SOS:130
Current Record:15-15
Expected Record:15-15
Current Conf Record:11-8
Expected Conf Record:11-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-2
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:207
Expected OOC SOS:160



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-15146.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Buffalo.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Niagara (275.0)MAACA66-76W100%0.0
11-14Xavier (37.0)BEA86-53L0%0.0
11-25Nevada (29.0)MWCN67-62L0%0.0
11-26Weber St. (185.0)BSkyN72-74W100%0.0
11-29Creighton (26.0)BEA93-72L0%0.0
12-3St. Bonaventure (91.0)A10A90-84L0%0.0
12-7Pittsburgh (74.0)ACCA84-79L0%0.0
12-10Coppin St. (336.0)MEACH87-52W100%0.0
12-17Canisius (171.0)MAACN87-94L0%0.0
12-21Robert Morris (237.0)NECN74-71L0%0.0
12-30Maine (322.0)AEH79-60W100%0.0
1-3Toledo (155.0)MACA86-54L0%0.0
1-7Eastern Michigan (174.0)MACA68-77W100%0.0
1-10Ohio (117.0)MACH72-74L0%0.0
1-14Ball St. (169.0)MACH77-92L0%0.0
1-17Kent St. (142.0)MACA69-82W100%0.0
1-21Western Michigan (173.0)MACH66-54W100%0.0
1-24Miami OH (302.0)MACA75-74L0%0.0
1-28Akron (58.0)MACA91-90L0%0.0
1-31Central Michigan (216.0)MACH101-91W100%0.0
2-3Ball St. (169.0)MACA69-96W100%0.0
2-7Northern Illinois (241.0)MACH65-45W100%0.0
2-11Bowling Green (225.0)MACA74-88W100%0.0
2-14Central Michigan (216.0)MACA93-99W100%0.0
2-18Miami OH (302.0)MACH71-58W100%0.0
2-21Kent St. (142.0)MACH69-77L0%0.0
2-24Akron (58.0)MACH83-89L0%0.0
2-28Ohio (117.0)MACA79-83W100%0.0
3-3Bowling Green (225.0)MACH80-68W100%0.0
3-9Kent St. (142.0)MACN65-68L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Buffalo's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Buffalo's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Buffalo.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BuffaloMAC26.2626.2652.0852.081.091.09
Kent St.MAC5.895.8961.2961.291.331.33
AkronMAC4.294.2974.1974.192.082.08
OhioMAC4.174.1764.2964.291.191.19
Miami OHMAC4.134.1328.5728.57-1.77-1.77
Bowling GreenMAC4.134.1341.3841.38-0.71-0.71
Ball St.MAC4.114.1163.3363.331.101.10
Central MichiganMAC4.104.1050.0050.000.000.00
ToledoMAC2.582.5848.3948.39-0.08-0.08
Western MichiganMAC2.552.5550.0050.000.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC2.542.5442.8642.86-0.36-0.36
Northern IllinoisMAC2.492.4942.8642.86-0.36-0.36
NiagaraMAAC1.821.8231.2531.25-0.68-0.68
CreightonBE1.791.7971.8871.880.780.78
St. BonaventureA101.771.7761.2961.290.400.40
Coppin St.MEAC1.771.7724.1424.14-0.92-0.92
CanisiusMAAC1.741.7453.1253.120.110.11
XavierBE1.741.7460.6160.610.370.37
PittsburghACC1.701.7046.8846.88-0.11-0.11
MaineAE1.671.6720.0020.00-1.00-1.00
NevadaMWC1.671.6781.8281.821.061.06
Robert MorrisNEC1.671.6740.6240.62-0.31-0.31
Weber St.BSky1.671.6758.6258.620.290.29
IonaMAAC0.230.2364.7164.710.070.07
Green BayHorz0.190.1955.1755.170.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.180.1826.6726.67-0.08-0.08
Tennessee TechOVC0.170.1733.3333.33-0.06-0.06
MarshallCUSA0.160.1655.8855.880.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.150.1532.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.150.1534.3834.38-0.05-0.05
ProvidenceBE0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
VillanovaBE0.150.1591.1891.180.120.12
DePaulBE0.150.1528.1228.12-0.07-0.07
IUPUISum0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.130.1373.3373.330.060.06
Grambling St.SWAC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
DuquesneA100.130.1331.2531.25-0.05-0.05
GeorgetownBE0.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
SienaMAAC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
MaristMAAC0.130.1325.0025.00-0.06-0.06
MonmouthMAAC0.130.1381.8281.820.080.08
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
MarquetteBE0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
ButlerBE0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
Montana St.BSky0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
VermontAE0.110.1184.8584.850.080.08
PepperdineWCC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
Southern UtahBSky0.110.1112.9012.90-0.08-0.08
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.100.1014.2914.29-0.07-0.07
Saint LouisA100.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
RiderMAAC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
VirginiaACC0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
NortheasternCAA0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Seton HallBE0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
St. John'sBE0.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.100.1012.9012.90-0.07-0.07
IdahoBSky0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
Little RockSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
MissouriSEC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
AlbanyAE0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
HartfordAE0.080.0828.1228.12-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
MassachusettsA100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
BradleyMVC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0810.0010.00-0.06-0.06
UC IrvineBW0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
NJITASun0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
BYUWCC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0610.3410.34-0.04-0.04
DelawareCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
IllinoisB100.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0629.4129.41-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
HofstraCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
UtahP120.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
BrownIvy0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0577.1477.140.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
North FloridaASun0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
WashingtonP120.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
AmericanPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0596.9796.970.050.05
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
MercerSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
LehighPat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
FordhamA100.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
La SalleA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Washington St.P120.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
YaleIvy0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
BaylorB120.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
ColoradoP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
PacificWCC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0287.5087.500.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0218.5218.52-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00