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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Buffalo

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:215.0
Current RPI:215
Expected SOS:147
Current SOS:147
Current Record:12-20
Expected Record:12-20
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-12
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-3
Current OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC RPI:253
Expected OOC SOS:140



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-20215.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Buffalo.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Princeton (124.0)IvyH53-57L0%0.0
11-12Florida St. (85.0)ACCA95-68L0%0.0
11-15Evansville (106.0)MVCA50-56W100%0.0
11-16Western Illinois (122.0)SumN58-67L0%0.0
11-17Yale (198.0)IvyN63-59L0%0.0
11-20Canisius (112.0)MAACA71-64L0%0.0
11-28Temple (42.0)A10H39-54L0%0.0
12-1St. Bonaventure (139.0)A10A82-79L0%0.0
12-5Wisconsin Milwaukee (307.0)HorzA52-72W100%0.0
12-8Niagara (123.0)MAACH77-67W100%0.0
12-21Washington St. (196.0)P12A65-54L0%0.0
1-2Tulsa (127.0)CUSAA63-57L0%0.0
1-9Ohio (67.0)MACA86-68L0%0.0
1-12Miami OH (258.0)MACH57-58L0%0.0
1-16Kent St. (131.0)MACH68-80L0%0.0
1-19Bowling Green (274.0)MACH68-65W100%0.0
1-23Ball St. (233.0)MACA63-66W100%0.0
1-26Akron (43.0)MACA68-64L0%0.0
1-30Central Michigan (268.0)MACH91-73W100%0.0
2-2Western Michigan (128.0)MACA71-60L0%0.0
2-6Eastern Michigan (239.0)MACA65-46L0%0.0
2-9Northern Illinois (333.0)MACH59-54W100%0.0
2-13Toledo (193.0)MACH75-60W100%0.0
2-16Miami OH (258.0)MACA71-79W100%0.0
2-23Manhattan (183.0)MAACH64-65L0%0.0
2-27Kent St. (131.0)MACA83-81L0%0.0
3-2Akron (43.0)MACH81-67W100%0.0
3-5Ohio (67.0)MACH69-72L0%0.0
3-8Bowling Green (274.0)MACA76-65L0%0.0
3-11Central Michigan (268.0)MACH74-72W100%0.0
3-13Ball St. (233.0)MACN61-76W100%0.0
3-14Kent St. (131.0)MACN70-68L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Buffalo's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Buffalo's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Buffalo.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BuffaloMAC26.2726.2737.5037.50-6.57-6.57
Kent St.MAC5.415.4155.1755.170.560.56
AkronMAC3.943.9482.7682.762.582.58
OhioMAC3.893.8970.9770.971.631.63
Miami OHMAC3.883.8825.0025.00-1.94-1.94
Bowling GreenMAC3.863.8635.7135.71-1.10-1.10
Central MichiganMAC3.743.7435.7135.71-1.07-1.07
Ball St.MAC3.713.7151.8551.850.140.14
Eastern MichiganMAC2.312.3140.0040.00-0.46-0.46
Western MichiganMAC2.282.2860.0060.000.460.46
Northern IllinoisMAC2.262.2614.2914.29-1.61-1.61
ToledoMAC2.202.2055.5655.560.240.24
NiagaraMAAC1.741.7461.2961.290.390.39
PrincetonIvy1.741.7457.6957.690.270.27
TempleA101.741.7470.9770.970.730.73
CanisiusMAAC1.711.7156.6756.670.230.23
St. BonaventureA101.681.6846.4346.43-0.12-0.12
YaleIvy1.671.6739.2939.29-0.36-0.36
EvansvilleMVC1.671.6756.6756.670.220.22
ManhattanMAAC1.661.6641.9441.94-0.27-0.27
Western IllinoisSum1.611.6170.3770.370.660.66
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz1.591.5920.6920.69-0.93-0.93
Florida St.ACC1.591.5953.1253.120.100.10
TulsaCUSA1.591.5950.0050.000.000.00
Washington St.P121.561.5638.7138.71-0.35-0.35
Cleveland St.Horz0.360.3637.9337.93-0.09-0.09
IonaMAAC0.250.2560.6160.610.050.05
Wright St.Horz0.230.2362.5062.500.060.06
DetroitHorz0.230.2360.0060.000.050.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.230.2348.2848.28-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.230.2365.6265.620.070.07
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.210.2151.6151.610.010.01
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.210.2146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.200.2056.2556.250.030.03
SienaMAAC0.200.2025.0025.00-0.10-0.10
FairfieldMAAC0.200.2055.8855.880.020.02
South DakotaSum0.190.1928.5728.57-0.08-0.08
IUPUISum0.190.1913.3313.33-0.14-0.14
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.190.1945.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDMAAC0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
CornellIvy0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
OaklandSum0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.150.1578.1278.120.090.09
North Carolina St.ACC0.150.1570.5970.590.060.06
CharlotteA100.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
MaristMAAC0.150.1532.2632.26-0.05-0.05
St. Peter'sMAAC0.150.1530.0030.00-0.06-0.06
BrownIvy0.140.1444.4444.44-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.140.1438.4638.46-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
PennsylvaniaIvy0.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1370.9770.970.060.06
ButlerA100.130.1375.7675.760.070.07
Indiana St.MVC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
BucknellPat0.130.1384.3884.380.090.09
CreightonMVC0.130.1379.4179.410.070.07
NebraskaB100.130.1345.4545.45-0.01-0.01
XavierA100.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.110.1129.6329.63-0.05-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
GramblingSWAC0.110.110.000.00-0.11-0.11
FordhamA100.100.1022.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
SyracuseBE0.100.1074.2974.290.050.05
DuquesneA100.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
BradleyMVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
MichiganB100.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
WoffordSC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.GWC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
RichmondA100.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
MemphisCUSA0.100.1088.2488.240.070.07
St. Francis PANEC0.100.1017.2417.24-0.06-0.06
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0828.0028.00-0.04-0.04
SamfordSC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
South FloridaBE0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
LouisvilleBE0.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
PepperdineWCC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
RiceCUSA0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
Oregon St.P120.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.077.147.14-0.06-0.06
PortlandWCC0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
IndianaB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
DePaulBE0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
IowaB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
New Orleansind0.050.0518.1818.18-0.03-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Texas St.WAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
HartfordAE0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
St. LouisA100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Virginia CommonwealthA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0542.3142.31-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0553.8553.850.000.00
High PointBSth0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
HoustonCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Middle TennesseeSB0.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
NC AshevilleBSth0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Penn St.B100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Southern MethodistCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Texas El PasoCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Notre DameBE0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
ArizonaP120.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
KansasB120.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
OregonP120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
DukeACC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
BelmontOVC0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MarylandACC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
NC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ElonSC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
LafayettePat0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
RutgersBE0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
BryantNEC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
St. Mary'sWCC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
The CitadelSC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
DavidsonSC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Central FloridaCUSA0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
PacificBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Southern MississippiCUSA0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0385.1985.190.020.02
Texas ChristianB120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
ColoradoP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
DelawareCAA0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0293.7593.750.020.02
HofstraCAA0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
IdahoWAC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Long IslandNEC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0270.3770.370.010.01
StanfordP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
TowsonCAA0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Utah ValleyGWC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
AuburnSEC0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Brigham YoungWCC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0214.8114.81-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00