Buffalo

Conference:	MAC
Expected RPI:	215.0
Current RPI:	215
Expected SOS:	147
Current SOS:	147
Current Record:	12-20
Expected Record:	12-20
Current Conf Record:	9-10
Expected Conf Record:	9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-12
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-3
Current OOC Record:	3-10
Expected OOC Record:	3-10
Expected OOC RPI:	253
Expected OOC SOS:	140

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-20	215.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Buffalo.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Princeton (124.0)	Ivy	H	53-57	L	0%
11-12	Florida St. (85.0)	ACC	A	95-68	L	0%
11-15	Evansville (106.0)	MVC	A	50-56	W	100%
11-16	Western Illinois (122.0)	Sum	N	58-67	L	0%
11-17	Yale (198.0)	Ivy	N	63-59	L	0%
11-20	Canisius (112.0)	MAAC	A	71-64	L	0%
11-28	Temple (42.0)	A10	H	39-54	L	0%
12-1	St. Bonaventure (139.0)	A10	A	82-79	L	0%
12-5	Wisconsin Milwaukee (307.0)	Horz	A	52-72	W	100%
12-8	Niagara (123.0)	MAAC	H	77-67	W	100%
12-21	Washington St. (196.0)	P12	A	65-54	L	0%
1-2	Tulsa (127.0)	CUSA	A	63-57	L	0%
1-9	Ohio (67.0)	MAC	A	86-68	L	0%
1-12	Miami OH (258.0)	MAC	H	57-58	L	0%
1-16	Kent St. (131.0)	MAC	H	68-80	L	0%
1-19	Bowling Green (274.0)	MAC	H	68-65	W	100%
1-23	Ball St. (233.0)	MAC	A	63-66	W	100%
1-26	Akron (43.0)	MAC	A	68-64	L	0%
1-30	Central Michigan (268.0)	MAC	H	91-73	W	100%
2-2	Western Michigan (128.0)	MAC	A	71-60	L	0%
2-6	Eastern Michigan (239.0)	MAC	A	65-46	L	0%
2-9	Northern Illinois (333.0)	MAC	H	59-54	W	100%
2-13	Toledo (193.0)	MAC	H	75-60	W	100%
2-16	Miami OH (258.0)	MAC	A	71-79	W	100%
2-23	Manhattan (183.0)	MAAC	H	64-65	L	0%
2-27	Kent St. (131.0)	MAC	A	83-81	L	0%
3-2	Akron (43.0)	MAC	H	81-67	W	100%
3-5	Ohio (67.0)	MAC	H	69-72	L	0%
3-8	Bowling Green (274.0)	MAC	A	76-65	L	0%
3-11	Central Michigan (268.0)	MAC	H	74-72	W	100%
3-13	Ball St. (233.0)	MAC	N	61-76	W	100%
3-14	Kent St. (131.0)	MAC	N	70-68	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Buffalo's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Buffalo's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Buffalo.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Buffalo	MAC	26.27	26.27	37.50	37.50	-6.57	-6.57
Kent St.	MAC	5.41	5.41	55.17	55.17	0.56	0.56
Akron	MAC	3.94	3.94	82.76	82.76	2.58	2.58
Ohio	MAC	3.89	3.89	70.97	70.97	1.63	1.63
Miami OH	MAC	3.88	3.88	25.00	25.00	-1.94	-1.94
Bowling Green	MAC	3.86	3.86	35.71	35.71	-1.10	-1.10
Central Michigan	MAC	3.74	3.74	35.71	35.71	-1.07	-1.07
Ball St.	MAC	3.71	3.71	51.85	51.85	0.14	0.14
Eastern Michigan	MAC	2.31	2.31	40.00	40.00	-0.46	-0.46
Western Michigan	MAC	2.28	2.28	60.00	60.00	0.46	0.46
Northern Illinois	MAC	2.26	2.26	14.29	14.29	-1.61	-1.61
Toledo	MAC	2.20	2.20	55.56	55.56	0.24	0.24
Niagara	MAAC	1.74	1.74	61.29	61.29	0.39	0.39
Princeton	Ivy	1.74	1.74	57.69	57.69	0.27	0.27
Temple	A10	1.74	1.74	70.97	70.97	0.73	0.73
Canisius	MAAC	1.71	1.71	56.67	56.67	0.23	0.23
St. Bonaventure	A10	1.68	1.68	46.43	46.43	-0.12	-0.12
Yale	Ivy	1.67	1.67	39.29	39.29	-0.36	-0.36
Evansville	MVC	1.67	1.67	56.67	56.67	0.22	0.22
Manhattan	MAAC	1.66	1.66	41.94	41.94	-0.27	-0.27
Western Illinois	Sum	1.61	1.61	70.37	70.37	0.66	0.66
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	1.59	1.59	20.69	20.69	-0.93	-0.93
Florida St.	ACC	1.59	1.59	53.12	53.12	0.10	0.10
Tulsa	CUSA	1.59	1.59	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Washington St.	P12	1.56	1.56	38.71	38.71	-0.35	-0.35
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.36	0.36	37.93	37.93	-0.09	-0.09
Iona	MAAC	0.25	0.25	60.61	60.61	0.05	0.05
Wright St.	Horz	0.23	0.23	62.50	62.50	0.06	0.06
Detroit	Horz	0.23	0.23	60.00	60.00	0.05	0.05
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.23	0.23	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.23	0.23	65.62	65.62	0.07	0.07
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.21	0.21	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.21	0.21	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.20	0.20	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Siena	MAAC	0.20	0.20	25.00	25.00	-0.10	-0.10
Fairfield	MAAC	0.20	0.20	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.19	0.19	28.57	28.57	-0.08	-0.08
IUPUI	Sum	0.19	0.19	13.33	13.33	-0.14	-0.14
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.19	0.19	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.17	0.17	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Cornell	Ivy	0.16	0.16	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Dayton	A10	0.15	0.15	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.15	0.15	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.15	0.15	78.12	78.12	0.09	0.09
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.15	0.15	70.59	70.59	0.06	0.06
Charlotte	A10	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Marist	MAAC	0.15	0.15	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.15	0.15	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
Brown	Ivy	0.14	0.14	44.44	44.44	-0.02	-0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.14	0.14	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
Harvard	Ivy	0.14	0.14	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.14	0.14	29.03	29.03	-0.06	-0.06
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.13	0.13	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
Butler	A10	0.13	0.13	75.76	75.76	0.07	0.07
Indiana St.	MVC	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.13	0.13	84.38	84.38	0.09	0.09
Creighton	MVC	0.13	0.13	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
Nebraska	B10	0.13	0.13	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.11	0.11	29.63	29.63	-0.05	-0.05
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.11	0.11	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Grambling	SWAC	0.11	0.11	0.00	0.00	-0.11	-0.11
Fordham	A10	0.10	0.10	22.58	22.58	-0.06	-0.06
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.10	0.10	74.29	74.29	0.05	0.05
Duquesne	A10	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Bradley	MVC	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Wofford	SC	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Chicago St.	GWC	0.10	0.10	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Missouri St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Arkansas St.	SB	0.10	0.10	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Washington	P12	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.10	0.10	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Richmond	A10	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.07	0.07
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.10	0.10	17.24	17.24	-0.06	-0.06
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.08	0.08	28.00	28.00	-0.04	-0.04
Samford	SC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Purdue	B10	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
South Florida	BE	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Vermont	AE	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Idaho St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	17.24	17.24	-0.05	-0.05
Louisville	BE	0.08	0.08	85.29	85.29	0.05	0.05
Pepperdine	WCC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Utah	P12	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Rice	CUSA	0.07	0.07	13.79	13.79	-0.05	-0.05
Oregon St.	P12	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.07	0.07	7.14	7.14	-0.06	-0.06
Portland	WCC	0.07	0.07	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
New Orleans	ind	0.05	0.05	18.18	18.18	-0.03	-0.03
North Dakota	BSky	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Texas St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.05	0.05	42.31	42.31	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.05	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.05	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.03	0.03
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.03	0.03
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	SC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	81.25	81.25	0.02	0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.02	-0.02
Davidson	SC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Boston University	AE	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Pacific	BW	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	85.19	85.19	0.02	0.02
Texas Christian	B12	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
California	P12	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.02	0.02	93.75	93.75	0.02	0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.02	0.02	19.35	19.35	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	70.37	70.37	0.01	0.01
Stanford	P12	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Towson	CAA	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.02	0.02	35.71	35.71	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.02	0.02	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Brigham Young	WCC	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.02	0.02	14.81	14.81	-0.02	-0.02
Maine	AE	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00