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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Buffalo

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:106.0
Current RPI:106
Expected SOS:163
Current SOS:163
Current Record:18-10
Expected Record:18-10
Current Conf Record:13-6
Expected Conf Record:13-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-2
Current OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC RPI:178
Expected OOC SOS:218



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-10106.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Buffalo.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Texas A&M (148.0)SECA82-58L0%0.0
11-13Niagara (302.0)MAACA92-81L0%0.0
11-26Robert Morris (129.0)NECH81-66W100%0.0
11-30Delaware St. (329.0)MEACH65-55W100%0.0
12-7St. Bonaventure (89.0)A10H78-73W100%0.0
12-11Canisius (96.0)MAACH55-59L0%0.0
12-21Manhattan (60.0)MAACN84-81L0%0.0
12-23Binghamton (325.0)AEH87-57W100%0.0
12-29Drexel (132.0)CAAA52-55W100%0.0
1-8Northern Illinois (217.0)MACH67-46W100%0.0
1-11Eastern Michigan (86.0)MACH76-66W100%0.0
1-15Toledo (38.0)MACA67-65L0%0.0
1-18Kent St. (213.0)MACH71-60W100%0.0
1-23Ball St. (309.0)MACA71-68L0%0.0
1-25Northern Illinois (217.0)MACA67-75W100%0.0
1-29Western Michigan (66.0)MACH84-63W100%0.0
2-2Bowling Green (194.0)MACA74-68L0%0.0
2-5Ball St. (309.0)MACH69-48W100%0.0
2-8Central Michigan (294.0)MACA70-79W100%0.0
2-12Miami OH (161.0)MACA62-75W100%0.0
2-15Ohio (87.0)MACH70-73L0%0.0
2-19Akron (93.0)MACH96-90W100%0.0
2-22Kent St. (213.0)MACA69-78W100%0.0
2-26Ohio (87.0)MACA64-69W100%0.0
3-1Miami OH (161.0)MACH78-55W100%0.0
3-4Akron (93.0)MACA83-71L0%0.0
3-8Bowling Green (194.0)MACH88-65W100%0.0
3-13Eastern Michigan (86.0)MACN64-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Buffalo's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Buffalo's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Buffalo.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BuffaloMAC26.2626.2665.0065.007.887.88
OhioMAC4.534.5367.7467.741.611.61
Eastern MichiganMAC4.534.5356.6756.670.600.60
AkronMAC4.504.5064.5264.521.311.31
Kent St.MAC4.464.4651.7251.720.150.15
Miami OHMAC4.454.4546.4346.43-0.32-0.32
Northern IllinoisMAC4.444.4448.2848.28-0.15-0.15
Bowling GreenMAC4.434.4334.4834.48-1.37-1.37
Ball St.MAC4.364.367.697.69-3.69-3.69
ToledoMAC2.762.7680.6580.651.691.69
Western MichiganMAC2.742.7473.3373.331.281.28
Central MichiganMAC2.712.7128.5728.57-1.16-1.16
NiagaraMAAC1.981.9818.7518.75-1.24-1.24
CanisiusMAAC1.921.9264.5264.520.560.56
ManhattanMAAC1.901.9077.4277.421.041.04
Robert MorrisNEC1.871.8763.6463.640.510.51
St. BonaventureA101.841.8454.8454.840.180.18
BinghamtonAE1.791.7924.1424.14-0.92-0.92
Delaware St.MEAC1.791.7925.9325.93-0.86-0.86
DrexelCAA1.791.7955.1755.170.180.18
Texas A&MSEC1.791.7951.6151.610.060.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.320.3263.3363.330.080.08
MassachusettsA100.280.2875.0075.000.140.14
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.280.2845.1645.16-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.250.2568.7568.750.090.09
SienaMAAC0.220.2246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.220.2264.5264.520.060.06
MonmouthMAAC0.200.2034.3834.38-0.06-0.06
MaristMAAC0.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.190.1941.1841.18-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.180.1835.4835.48-0.05-0.05
DetroitHorz0.170.1736.6736.67-0.04-0.04
FairfieldMAAC0.170.1721.8821.88-0.09-0.09
RiderMAAC0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.150.1540.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
DelawareCAA0.150.1573.5373.530.070.07
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.140.1416.6716.67-0.10-0.10
Tennessee St.OVC0.120.1213.7913.79-0.09-0.09
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
XavierBE0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
EvansvilleMVC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Saint LouisA100.110.1180.6580.650.070.07
St. Francis NYNEC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Iowa St.B120.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
Oral RobertsSlnd0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.110.1170.5970.590.050.05
RichmondA100.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
HartfordAE0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.090.0975.0075.000.040.04
HofstraCAA0.090.0930.3030.30-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
UMass LowellAE0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
CornellIvy0.090.093.703.70-0.08-0.08
SyracuseACC0.090.0984.3884.380.060.06
Seton HallBE0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
MissouriSEC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
DuquesneA100.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
ButlerBE0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0619.3519.35-0.04-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
MarquetteBE0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
UtahP120.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
AlbanyAE0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Arizona St.P120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
MaineAE0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
New HampshireAE0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
TowsonCAA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
UMBCAE0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
CampbellBSth0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
ElonSC0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
RutgersAmer0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
NebraskaB100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.060.0670.3770.370.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckySB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
WisconsinB100.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
BrownIvy0.060.0651.8551.850.000.00
DavidsonSC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
FordhamA100.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
LSUSEC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
South DakotaSum0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MercerASun0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.04-0.04
ClemsonACC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
NJITind0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
ColgatePat0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
UCLAP120.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
DrakeMVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
NorthwesternB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
KansasB120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01