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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Buffalo

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:28.0
Current RPI:28
Expected SOS:78
Current SOS:78
Current Record:23-9
Expected Record:23-9
Current Conf Record:14-6
Expected Conf Record:14-6
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:20
Expected OOC SOS:67



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-928.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Buffalo.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14South Dakota St. (90.0)SumH69-67W100%0.0
11-16Kentucky (1.0)SECA71-52L0%0.0
11-18UT Arlington (184.0)SBA68-74W100%0.0
11-25Grand Canyon (274.0)WACA64-80W100%0.0
11-29Canisius (180.0)MAACA57-72W100%0.0
12-3St. Bonaventure (121.0)A10A72-63L0%0.0
12-7Robert Morris (171.0)NECA59-74W100%0.0
12-16Drexel (243.0)CAAH80-70W100%0.0
12-19Niagara (287.0)MAACH88-62W100%0.0
12-28Wisconsin (4.0)B10A68-56L0%0.0
12-30Binghamton (332.0)AEA50-76W100%0.0
1-3Cornell (227.0)IvyH92-73W100%0.0
1-7Miami OH (229.0)MACA72-79W100%0.0
1-10Western Michigan (119.0)MACA78-68L0%0.0
1-14Northern Illinois (185.0)MACH82-63W100%0.0
1-17Miami OH (229.0)MACH77-68W100%0.0
1-21Central Michigan (70.0)MACA84-73L0%0.0
1-24Ohio (231.0)MACA63-61L0%0.0
1-27Western Michigan (119.0)MACH77-71W100%0.0
1-30Kent St. (94.0)MACH80-55W100%0.0
2-4Ball St. (284.0)MACA78-82W100%0.0
2-7Akron (115.0)MACA75-72L0%0.0
2-10Toledo (79.0)MACH88-92L0%0.0
2-14Central Michigan (70.0)MACH74-75L0%0.0
2-18Eastern Michigan (139.0)MACA63-78W100%0.0
2-21Bowling Green (109.0)MACA56-68W100%0.0
2-24Akron (115.0)MACH67-62W100%0.0
2-28Kent St. (94.0)MACA65-71W100%0.0
3-3Ohio (231.0)MACH93-66W100%0.0
3-6Bowling Green (109.0)MACH77-75W100%0.0
3-13Akron (115.0)MACN68-59W100%0.0
3-14Central Michigan (70.0)MACN84-89W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Buffalo's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Buffalo's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Buffalo.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BuffaloMAC26.3826.3876.3576.3513.9013.90
AkronMAC5.545.5461.2961.291.251.25
Central MichiganMAC5.375.3772.0072.002.362.36
OhioMAC3.993.9932.1432.14-1.43-1.43
Western MichiganMAC3.963.9658.6258.620.680.68
Kent St.MAC3.933.9368.9768.971.491.49
Bowling GreenMAC3.913.9171.4371.431.681.68
Miami OHMAC3.893.8941.3841.38-0.67-0.67
ToledoMAC2.522.5259.3859.380.470.47
Eastern MichiganMAC2.492.4958.6258.620.430.43
Northern IllinoisMAC2.432.4346.4346.43-0.17-0.17
Ball St.MAC2.412.4121.4321.43-1.38-1.38
Grand CanyonWAC1.701.7053.5753.570.120.12
St. BonaventureA101.691.6956.6756.670.230.23
CanisiusMAAC1.671.6755.1755.170.170.17
CornellIvy1.641.6442.8642.86-0.23-0.23
NiagaraMAAC1.641.6427.5927.59-0.74-0.74
KentuckySEC1.621.62100.00100.001.621.62
BinghamtonAE1.611.6117.2417.24-1.06-1.06
UT ArlingtonSB1.611.6151.7251.720.060.06
DrexelCAA1.591.5939.2939.29-0.34-0.34
Robert MorrisNEC1.591.5959.3859.380.300.30
South Dakota St.Sum1.561.5670.0070.000.620.62
WisconsinB101.561.5690.9190.911.281.28
NorthwesternB100.230.2346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.200.2037.5037.50-0.05-0.05
DaytonA100.200.2075.7675.760.110.11
North Dakota St.Sum0.190.1970.0070.000.080.08
Youngstown St.Horz0.180.1827.5927.59-0.08-0.08
SienaMAAC0.180.1835.4835.48-0.05-0.05
Penn St.B100.170.1752.9452.940.010.01
MaineAE0.160.1610.0010.00-0.13-0.13
UMKCWAC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.140.1423.0823.08-0.08-0.08
South CarolinaSEC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
BryantNEC0.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
BradleyMVC0.130.1325.0025.00-0.07-0.07
IonaMAAC0.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.130.1347.0647.06-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.130.1317.2417.24-0.08-0.08
UMBCAE0.120.1213.3313.33-0.09-0.09
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.1140.7440.74-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
PennIvy0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
ElonCAA0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
YaleIvy0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.06-0.06
MaristMAAC0.100.1021.8821.88-0.06-0.06
QuinnipiacMAAC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
RiderMAAC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.100.1028.1228.12-0.05-0.05
DelawareCAA0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
New HampshireAE0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
IPFWSum0.100.1048.1548.15-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
USCP120.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0838.4638.46-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0827.2727.27-0.04-0.04
HarvardIvy0.080.0874.0774.070.040.04
James MadisonCAA0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
HartfordAE0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
IdahoBSky0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
IUPUISum0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0865.5265.520.020.02
George WashingtonA100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0844.4444.44-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.080.0820.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
DetroitHorz0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
South DakotaSum0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
KansasB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Ohio St.B100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
IowaB100.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
MichiganB100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
WagnerNEC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
FloridaSEC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0752.9452.940.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
SeattleWAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
ColgatePat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
George MasonA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
UtahP120.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
DavidsonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
PittsburghACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
DenverSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
PacificWCC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
VCUA100.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
DukeACC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0318.7518.75-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
ArmyPat0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.9190.910.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
BucknellPat0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
ClemsonACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
LafayettePat0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
OregonP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0260.7160.710.000.00
Green BayHorz0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
IllinoisB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
LSUSEC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
MarquetteBE0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.020.0281.8281.820.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
RutgersB100.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
UABCUSA0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
UCLAP120.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00