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Through games of Feb 9, 2016.


Buffalo

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:92.4
Current RPI:99
Expected SOS:91
Current SOS:100
Current Record:13-10
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:7-4
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:135
Expected OOC SOS:87



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1056.41.35%
19-1167.510.40%
18-1278.925.26%
17-1392.532.51%
16-14108.021.59%
15-15124.87.38%
14-16141.01.41%
13-17156.40.09%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Buffalo.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Old Dominion (140.0)CUSAA77-58L0%0.0
11-18Saint Joseph's (33.2)A10A89-67L0%0.0
11-21North Carolina A&T (334.5)MEACN68-86W100%0.0
11-22Vermont (161.2)AEN77-71W100%0.0
11-28Canisius (216.0)MAACH98-96W100%0.0
12-2St. Bonaventure (52.1)A10H58-60L0%0.0
12-5Duke (18.0)ACCA82-59L0%0.0
12-7Iowa St. (17.6)B12A84-63L0%0.0
12-12Binghamton (309.3)AEH80-64W100%0.0
12-19Montana St. (256.6)BSkyH80-73W100%0.0
12-22VCU (37.6)A10A90-69L0%0.0
12-29Delaware (275.2)CAAH99-79W100%0.0
1-5Akron (33.3)MACH71-75L0%0.0
1-8Kent St. (107.4)MACA67-76W100%0.0
1-12Eastern Michigan (144.0)MACA81-69L0%0.0
1-16Central Michigan (144.1)MACH74-61W100%0.0
1-19Miami OH (216.8)MACA60-77W100%0.0
1-23Western Michigan (217.6)MACA91-71L0%0.0
1-26Ball St. (166.1)MACH76-64W100%0.0
1-30Toledo (139.5)MACA68-73W100%0.0
2-2Northern Illinois (141.2)MACA78-90W100%0.0
2-6Eastern Michigan (144.0)MACH80-70W100%0.0
2-9Toledo (139.5)MACH69-71L0%0.0
2-13Ohio (98.1)MACH0-063%3.6
2-16Akron (33.3)MACA0-022%-8.5
2-20Bowling Green (198.6)MACH0-078%8.5
2-23Kent St. (107.4)MACH0-068%5.1
2-27Ohio (98.1)MACA0-039%-3.0
3-1Miami OH (216.8)MACH0-083%10.4
3-4Bowling Green (198.6)MACA0-057%1.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Buffalo's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Buffalo's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Buffalo.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BuffaloMAC26.3126.2558.4258.014.434.20
Kent St.MAC2.724.1668.1863.770.991.15
OhioMAC0.594.1063.6462.340.161.01
Miami OHMAC2.674.1036.3634.85-0.73-1.24
AkronMAC2.684.0881.8280.571.702.49
Bowling GreenMAC0.594.0750.0046.830.00-0.26
ToledoMAC4.744.0661.9062.901.131.05
Eastern MichiganMAC4.794.0438.8942.91-1.06-0.57
Ball St.MAC2.622.4763.6459.160.710.45
Western MichiganMAC2.672.4728.5730.29-1.14-0.97
Central MichiganMAC2.632.4750.0051.170.000.06
Northern IllinoisMAC2.712.4763.1659.820.710.48
St. BonaventureA102.401.8970.0067.840.960.67
VermontAE2.381.8154.1756.750.200.25
Saint Joseph'sA102.321.7881.8278.211.481.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.321.7830.4334.27-0.91-0.56
VCUA102.371.7872.7373.101.080.82
BinghamtonAE2.271.7521.7424.95-1.28-0.88
CanisiusMAAC2.271.7545.8346.82-0.19-0.11
Old DominionCUSA2.271.7254.5561.550.210.40
DukeACC2.221.6973.9170.861.060.71
DelawareCAA2.171.6722.7324.17-1.19-0.86
Iowa St.B122.171.6772.7369.050.990.64
Montana St.BSky2.171.6742.8645.27-0.31-0.16
Cleveland St.Horz0.190.2821.7422.74-0.11-0.15
South Carolina St.MEAC0.240.2052.1754.170.010.02
NiagaraMAAC0.280.1924.0024.55-0.14-0.10
DetroitHorz0.200.1747.6245.85-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.250.1714.2920.67-0.18-0.10
UMBCAE0.090.1724.0026.33-0.05-0.08
NortheasternCAA0.230.1745.8346.64-0.02-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.140.1730.4332.36-0.06-0.06
DaytonA100.100.1786.9682.300.070.11
MarshallCUSA0.090.1750.0051.210.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.140.1731.8236.14-0.05-0.05
MaristMAAC0.180.1721.7424.19-0.10-0.09
OaklandHorz0.250.1568.0067.980.090.05
Penn St.B100.200.1450.0046.740.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.100.1456.5257.010.010.02
MassachusettsA100.100.1440.9139.33-0.02-0.03
Saint LouisA100.100.1436.3633.54-0.03-0.05
IonaMAAC0.140.1460.8760.720.030.03
SienaMAAC0.180.1464.0064.140.050.04
Rhode IslandA100.190.1458.3357.170.030.02
RichmondA100.190.1454.5554.470.020.01
LouisvilleACC0.150.1279.1776.070.090.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1147.6252.05-0.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.050.1147.3749.93-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.190.1171.4369.830.080.05
HofstraCAA0.140.1165.2264.220.040.03
AlbanyAE0.180.1176.0076.310.090.06
HartfordAE0.090.1125.0026.75-0.04-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.1150.0054.200.000.01
MaineAE0.130.1133.3333.13-0.04-0.04
New HampshireAE0.130.1157.1453.990.020.01
San Jose St.MWC0.190.1125.0022.73-0.10-0.06
Stony BrookAE0.130.1181.8282.630.090.07
UMass LowellAE0.130.1134.7835.65-0.04-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.1143.4850.65-0.010.00
CincinnatiAmer0.090.1172.0071.540.040.05
DuquesneA100.100.1160.8756.430.020.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.1169.5764.890.020.03
VillanovaBE0.140.1187.5086.910.110.08
Green BayHorz0.140.1154.5556.020.010.01
LipscombASun0.090.1125.0029.30-0.05-0.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.190.1143.4842.66-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.100.1160.0057.940.020.02
FordhamA100.140.1155.0052.190.010.00
George MasonA100.150.1133.3333.68-0.05-0.04
George WashingtonA100.050.1178.2674.410.030.05
La SalleA100.090.1120.0020.46-0.06-0.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.190.1171.4369.410.080.04
Virginia TechACC0.190.1152.0048.860.01-0.00
Michigan St.B100.150.0980.0081.600.090.06
Nebraska OmahaSum0.160.0956.5256.320.020.01
North FloridaASun0.160.0965.2267.130.050.03
FIUCUSA0.150.0940.9145.30-0.03-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.100.0970.8369.490.040.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.140.0976.1973.420.080.04
Chicago St.WAC0.150.094.357.72-0.14-0.07
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0927.7834.43-0.02-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0824.0025.67-0.02-0.04
DrexelCAA0.050.0813.6418.15-0.03-0.05
ElonCAA0.090.0852.1750.420.000.00
SyracuseACC0.150.0866.6762.530.050.02
IPFWSum0.100.0870.8368.550.040.03
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0850.0049.460.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.0845.4546.24-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.140.0863.6462.150.040.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.140.089.0912.24-0.11-0.06
IUPUISum0.090.0840.0039.81-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.140.0833.3335.06-0.05-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.090.0842.8650.39-0.010.00
FloridaSEC0.140.0866.6766.320.050.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0822.7327.22-0.05-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.0842.8646.35-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0872.7367.630.020.03
PurdueB100.140.0880.0077.930.080.05
CharlotteCUSA0.140.0834.7840.91-0.04-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.130.0836.3636.15-0.04-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.140.0829.1733.74-0.06-0.03
IdahoBSky0.100.0654.5554.950.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0665.0069.240.020.02
HowardMEAC0.100.0636.3638.92-0.03-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0663.6460.920.010.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0620.8323.21-0.00-0.03
MontanaBSky0.050.0657.8962.320.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0610.0013.14-0.04-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0628.5726.98-0.02-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.100.0631.5837.70-0.04-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.100.0642.1145.67-0.02-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0613.6415.77-0.00-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0615.0015.34-0.03-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0666.6762.650.000.01
TowsonCAA0.090.0665.2259.770.030.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0665.2261.470.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0645.8341.65-0.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.100.0643.4842.49-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.090.0612.5012.90-0.07-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0629.1726.74-0.04-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.090.0654.1755.600.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.090.0666.6765.220.030.02
CornellIvy0.090.0642.1140.21-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.100.0634.7836.50-0.03-0.02
PennIvy0.090.0638.8937.63-0.02-0.01
TempleAmer0.090.0663.6459.810.030.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0650.0053.100.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0623.8126.56-0.02-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0625.0025.08-0.00-0.03
NJITASun0.050.0654.1755.280.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0625.0033.22-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0638.1037.68-0.02-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0690.9186.110.040.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0672.0070.540.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0668.1866.650.020.02
UCFAmer0.050.0650.0044.860.00-0.01
XavierBE0.050.0687.5081.810.040.04
DartmouthIvy0.090.0531.5831.75-0.03-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0519.0525.89-0.03-0.03
YaleIvy0.090.0573.6874.680.040.03
BaylorB120.050.0572.7366.400.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.040.0554.1754.140.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.090.0552.1751.510.000.00
KansasB120.050.0582.6179.190.030.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0560.8758.300.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.090.0542.8642.05-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.090.0580.0081.160.050.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.0583.3378.390.000.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0550.0049.090.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0533.3333.04-0.00-0.02
OklahomaB120.090.0586.9682.650.070.04
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0545.8342.26-0.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.090.0540.0042.11-0.02-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.040.0540.9143.29-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.050.0545.8339.34-0.00-0.01
TexasB120.050.0566.6762.200.020.01
Texas TechB120.050.0559.0953.180.010.00
Wake ForestACC0.050.0543.4840.46-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0579.1778.090.030.03
RiceCUSA0.000.0528.5729.66-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0328.5728.55-0.02-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.035.007.21-0.05-0.03
MissouriSEC0.050.0334.7830.33-0.02-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0360.0055.500.010.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0341.6741.23-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.050.0366.6769.490.020.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0382.6181.120.030.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0325.0024.33-0.03-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0317.6529.05-0.03-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0359.0959.630.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0345.4554.14-0.000.00
ArmyPat0.050.0354.1754.580.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0313.0413.55-0.03-0.02
ColgatePat0.050.0343.4844.80-0.01-0.00
DePaulBE0.050.0333.3334.01-0.02-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0352.3854.080.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0350.0051.920.000.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0384.2181.660.030.02
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0345.0046.13-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0350.0049.830.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.050.0334.7837.17-0.02-0.01
MercerSC0.050.0369.5769.020.020.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0340.0045.50-0.01-0.00
NevadaMWC0.050.0355.0054.530.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.050.0331.8229.12-0.02-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0320.0019.68-0.03-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0372.2275.580.020.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0333.3334.95-0.02-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0356.5259.860.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0336.8442.89-0.01-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0343.4841.96-0.01-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0340.9143.54-0.01-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0352.0050.250.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0315.0018.09-0.03-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0359.0961.320.010.01
HarvardIvy0.040.0335.0038.50-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0352.1751.910.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.050.0322.7324.97-0.03-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0356.5257.280.010.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0327.2731.05-0.02-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0322.7323.24-0.02-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0381.8283.040.030.02
AmericanPat0.050.0330.4331.91-0.02-0.01
BryantNEC0.050.0325.0026.39-0.02-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0386.9686.660.030.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0358.3358.310.010.00
ColoradoP120.050.0369.5765.330.020.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0356.0052.830.010.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0340.0038.98-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0357.8956.090.010.00
IllinoisB100.050.0345.8344.13-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0354.1750.940.000.00
IndianaB100.050.0379.1774.040.030.01
IowaB100.050.0382.6180.550.030.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0375.0072.610.020.01
LehighPat0.040.0336.3639.78-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0345.4551.34-0.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0371.4368.760.020.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0382.6177.520.030.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.040.0318.1821.15-0.03-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0354.1755.020.000.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0370.8367.790.020.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.039.0917.13-0.04-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0372.2274.700.020.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0350.0051.300.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0331.5832.01-0.02-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0378.2677.860.030.01
UABCUSA0.050.0382.6179.370.030.02
UtahP120.050.0369.5767.500.020.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0347.6249.40-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0352.1751.920.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0313.6413.63-0.00-0.02
VirginiaACC0.000.0383.3378.470.000.02
WisconsinB100.050.0360.8755.830.010.00