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Through games of Feb 28, 2015.


Buffalo

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:36.5
Current RPI:32
Expected SOS:85
Current SOS:85
Current Record:19-9
Expected Record:21-9
Current Conf Record:10-6
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Probability of Auto Bid:28.55%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-1
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:23
Expected OOC SOS:78



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-931.568.18%
20-1046.429.90%
19-1159.01.92%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Buffalo.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14South Dakota St. (87.5)SumH69-67W100%0.0
11-16Kentucky (1.2)SECA71-52L0%0.0
11-18UT Arlington (160.0)SBA68-74W100%0.0
11-25Grand Canyon (278.9)WACA64-80W100%0.0
11-29Canisius (170.3)MAACN57-72W100%0.0
12-3St. Bonaventure (124.7)A10A72-63L0%0.0
12-7Robert Morris (192.1)NECA59-74W100%0.0
12-16Drexel (234.3)CAAH80-70W100%0.0
12-19Niagara (283.5)MAACH88-62W100%0.0
12-28Wisconsin (5.7)B10A68-56L0%0.0
12-30Binghamton (333.3)AEA50-76W100%0.0
1-3Cornell (217.5)IvyH92-73W100%0.0
1-7Miami OH (229.8)MACA72-79W100%0.0
1-10Western Michigan (109.7)MACA78-68L0%0.0
1-14Northern Illinois (201.9)MACH82-63W100%0.0
1-17Miami OH (229.8)MACH77-68W100%0.0
1-21Central Michigan (77.2)MACA84-73L0%0.0
1-24Ohio (239.1)MACA63-61L0%0.0
1-27Western Michigan (109.7)MACH77-71W100%0.0
1-30Kent St. (100.3)MACH80-55W100%0.0
2-4Ball St. (271.2)MACA78-82W100%0.0
2-7Akron (124.0)MACA75-72L0%0.0
2-10Toledo (72.6)MACH88-92L0%0.0
2-14Central Michigan (77.2)MACH74-75L0%0.0
2-18Eastern Michigan (174.4)MACA63-78W100%0.0
2-21Bowling Green (82.6)MACA56-68W100%0.0
2-24Akron (124.0)MACH67-62W100%0.0
2-28Kent St. (100.3)MACA65-71W100%0.0
3-3Ohio (239.1)MACH0-093%15.9
3-6Bowling Green (82.6)MACH0-073%6.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Buffalo's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Buffalo's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Buffalo.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BuffaloMAC26.2526.2773.0872.8012.1111.98
OhioMAC2.594.1530.7731.70-1.00-1.52
AkronMAC4.214.1161.5460.770.970.89
Miami OHMAC4.214.0942.3142.25-0.65-0.63
Kent St.MAC4.204.0969.2367.471.621.43
Bowling GreenMAC2.524.0876.0075.781.312.10
Central MichiganMAC4.204.0572.7371.581.911.75
Western MichiganMAC4.204.0460.0058.910.840.72
ToledoMAC2.582.5164.2963.050.740.66
Ball St.MAC2.562.4824.0025.65-1.33-1.21
Northern IllinoisMAC2.522.4844.0044.56-0.30-0.27
Eastern MichiganMAC2.562.4854.1754.010.210.20
St. BonaventureA101.911.8153.8555.240.150.19
Grand CanyonWAC1.921.7951.8552.120.070.08
CanisiusMAAC1.921.7857.1457.140.270.25
CornellIvy1.881.7546.1546.14-0.14-0.14
NiagaraMAAC1.881.7525.9327.15-0.91-0.80
BinghamtonAE1.851.7217.8617.86-1.19-1.11
KentuckySEC1.851.72100.0099.541.851.71
UT ArlingtonSB1.851.7257.6957.020.280.24
DrexelCAA1.821.7040.7440.74-0.34-0.31
Robert MorrisNEC1.821.6955.1755.170.190.18
South Dakota St.Sum1.791.6770.3770.370.730.68
WisconsinB101.791.6788.8987.031.391.23
NorthwesternB100.270.2348.2847.38-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.200.2078.5777.410.110.11
Youngstown St.Horz0.200.1828.5728.57-0.09-0.08
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.170.1833.3334.52-0.06-0.05
SienaMAAC0.190.1735.7135.19-0.05-0.05
UMKCWAC0.190.1739.2940.08-0.04-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.190.1766.6766.670.060.06
Penn St.B100.190.1751.7249.610.01-0.00
MaineAE0.170.1510.3410.34-0.14-0.12
IonaMAAC0.160.1480.0079.590.090.09
Chicago St.WAC0.130.1418.5217.91-0.08-0.09
ManhattanMAAC0.160.1453.5753.790.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.160.1443.3342.99-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.160.1448.1548.34-0.01-0.00
BradleyMVC0.140.1223.3323.33-0.07-0.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.1229.1730.80-0.04-0.04
DrakeMVC0.100.1227.5927.59-0.05-0.05
NortheasternCAA0.130.1264.5264.520.040.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1257.1457.140.010.02
LongwoodBSth0.130.1224.1424.14-0.07-0.06
DelawareCAA0.130.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.130.1246.1547.12-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.130.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.130.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.130.1250.0050.000.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.130.1224.0024.00-0.07-0.06
Wright St.Horz0.100.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.070.1137.0437.19-0.02-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.090.1124.1424.66-0.05-0.06
MaristMAAC0.130.1120.6920.37-0.07-0.07
MonmouthMAAC0.130.1153.3354.180.010.01
New HampshireAE0.130.1159.2659.260.020.02
PennIvy0.100.1128.0029.00-0.04-0.05
QuinnipiacMAAC0.130.1153.5753.100.010.01
RiderMAAC0.130.1166.6767.390.040.04
San DiegoWCC0.130.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.130.1138.4639.08-0.03-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.130.1142.8642.04-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1162.0762.070.020.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.130.1124.0024.53-0.07-0.06
UMBCAE0.130.1113.7913.79-0.09-0.08
YaleIvy0.130.1170.3768.760.050.04
NebraskaB100.100.1146.4345.01-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.120.1151.7251.720.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.0934.7838.22-0.03-0.02
IdahoBSky0.100.0944.0044.87-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.100.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.100.0961.2961.290.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.100.0937.0437.85-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.070.0940.0039.60-0.01-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0966.6766.670.020.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.0942.8641.90-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.0922.2222.90-0.06-0.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0953.5753.570.000.01
DetroitHorz0.070.0941.3841.38-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.090.0972.4172.410.040.04
George WashingtonA100.070.0962.0762.630.020.02
HartfordAE0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.100.0975.0075.280.050.04
MassachusettsA100.100.0958.6257.170.020.01
Stony BrookAE0.090.0965.5265.520.030.03
UMass LowellAE0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
Miami FLACC0.100.0962.0761.920.020.02
USCP120.100.0937.9337.13-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.100.0934.6233.89-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.0960.0059.390.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.100.0848.0048.70-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.100.0821.4321.47-0.05-0.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.0820.6920.69-0.06-0.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0851.7251.720.000.00
IowaB100.100.0865.5265.610.030.03
KansasB120.090.0879.3177.530.060.05
Ohio St.B100.060.0871.4371.540.030.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0651.8551.850.000.00
HofstraCAA0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0637.0437.67-0.02-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
South DakotaSum0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.030.0625.9328.17-0.02-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.070.0677.7878.800.040.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0661.5458.970.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0629.6331.52-0.03-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0615.3816.37-0.04-0.04
La SalleA100.060.0651.7251.500.000.00
Notre DameACC0.070.0682.7681.280.040.04
Saint LouisA100.030.0635.7134.56-0.01-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.070.0646.1544.71-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.070.0648.1549.32-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.040.0667.8665.870.010.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0615.3814.81-0.02-0.04
BelmontOVC0.030.0664.2964.290.010.02
BrownIvy0.070.0640.7438.94-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.060.0676.9276.690.030.03
George MasonA100.070.0629.6328.88-0.03-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0670.8368.840.010.02
Georgia St.SB0.070.0667.8668.240.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0642.8645.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0653.8555.410.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0662.9664.230.020.02
PacificWCC0.070.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.060.0664.2963.040.020.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0646.1547.63-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.070.0658.6259.650.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.070.060.000.17-0.07-0.06
SeattleWAC0.030.0648.0047.71-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.070.0625.9327.36-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.070.0641.6741.70-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.070.0630.7731.17-0.03-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0630.7731.12-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.060.0665.5264.550.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.060.0667.8667.090.020.02
TexasB120.060.0658.6259.330.010.01
VCUA100.060.0672.4172.030.030.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0616.1316.13-0.04-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.02
LibertyBSth0.060.0614.8114.81-0.04-0.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.060.0633.3331.69-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0650.0050.770.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0622.2222.67-0.04-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0630.7731.72-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.060.0667.8669.210.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.060.0634.4834.77-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0568.9768.970.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.060.0566.6765.970.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.060.0568.9768.760.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.060.0557.1456.290.010.01
DukeACC0.060.0589.6688.510.050.04
FloridaSEC0.030.0548.2847.45-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0567.8666.170.010.02
MinnesotaB100.030.0557.1456.730.000.01
MissouriSEC0.060.0525.0026.34-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.040.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.040.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.030.0344.4445.04-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.030.001.27-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.030.0344.4444.03-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0317.2420.20-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.030.0323.0823.78-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.0090.000.030.02
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0375.0075.360.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0326.9226.02-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0362.9661.640.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0382.1482.140.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0324.0023.52-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0335.7136.98-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.033.574.56-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.000.0330.7731.67-0.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3334.10-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0346.1546.10-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0361.9061.010.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0335.7138.37-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.6757.700.000.00
NavyPat0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0348.2848.79-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0373.0872.280.020.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0367.8665.680.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0362.0759.850.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0357.6958.360.010.00
Weber St.BSky0.030.0340.0040.16-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0357.1455.080.000.00
LafayettePat0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0379.3178.080.020.02
AuburnSEC0.030.0339.2938.92-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0374.0775.590.020.01
BucknellPat0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
CaliforniaP120.030.0357.1454.090.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0362.9662.960.010.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0375.0075.000.020.01
IllinoisB100.030.0362.0761.990.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0379.3177.780.020.01
LSUSEC0.030.0372.4171.340.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0340.7441.13-0.01-0.00
MarylandB100.030.0382.7682.190.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0365.5264.790.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0339.2939.33-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0318.1820.76-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0353.5754.680.000.00
OklahomaB120.030.0371.4370.330.010.01
OregonP120.030.0371.4369.270.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0367.8664.650.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0334.4833.28-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0350.0048.870.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0371.4369.990.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0353.5754.380.000.00
UCLAP120.030.0358.6260.520.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0357.1457.450.000.00