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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Buffalo

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:25.0
Current RPI:25
Expected SOS:83
Current SOS:83
Current Record:25-8
Expected Record:25-8
Current Conf Record:18-3
Expected Conf Record:18-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:16-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:34
Expected OOC SOS:9



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-825.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Buffalo.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Canisius (124.0)MAACH80-75W100%0.0
11-15Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCH81-76W100%0.0
11-20Cincinnati (6.0)AmerN73-67L0%0.0
11-21UAB (155.0)CUSAN96-91W100%0.0
11-22South Dakota St. (37.0)SumN80-94L0%0.0
11-29Niagara (163.0)MAACA87-106W100%0.0
12-2St. Bonaventure (24.0)A10H62-73L0%0.0
12-6Delaware (233.0)CAAA72-75W100%0.0
12-16Robert Morris (196.0)NECH86-70W100%0.0
12-19Syracuse (45.0)ACCA81-74L0%0.0
12-21Texas A&M (29.0)SECA89-73L0%0.0
12-28NJIT (269.0)ASunH86-81W100%0.0
1-2Toledo (75.0)MACH104-94W100%0.0
1-6Ball St. (126.0)MACA63-83W100%0.0
1-9Akron (227.0)MACA65-87W100%0.0
1-13Miami OH (159.0)MACH82-66W100%0.0
1-16Northern Illinois (241.0)MACH95-67W100%0.0
1-19Western Michigan (177.0)MACA74-84W100%0.0
1-23Eastern Michigan (116.0)MACH83-69W100%0.0
1-26Ohio (204.0)MACA66-73W100%0.0
1-30Kent St. (154.0)MACA82-79L0%0.0
2-2Western Michigan (177.0)MACH92-86W100%0.0
2-6Central Michigan (167.0)MACA82-88W100%0.0
2-10Northern Illinois (241.0)MACA90-88L0%0.0
2-13Kent St. (154.0)MACH84-72W100%0.0
2-16Bowling Green (193.0)MACH95-82W100%0.0
2-20Miami OH (159.0)MACA84-81L0%0.0
2-24Ohio (204.0)MACH108-82W100%0.0
2-27Akron (227.0)MACH80-68W100%0.0
3-2Bowling Green (193.0)MACA70-100W100%0.0
3-8Central Michigan (167.0)MACN89-74W100%0.0
3-9Kent St. (154.0)MACN78-61W100%0.0
3-10Toledo (75.0)MACN76-66W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Buffalo's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Buffalo's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Buffalo.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BuffaloMAC26.3426.3478.2378.2314.8714.87
Kent St.MAC5.345.3450.0050.000.000.00
ToledoMAC3.903.9070.9770.971.641.64
Miami OHMAC3.893.8944.8344.83-0.40-0.40
AkronMAC3.863.8644.8344.83-0.40-0.40
Central MichiganMAC3.863.8657.1457.140.550.55
OhioMAC3.863.8646.4346.43-0.28-0.28
Bowling GreenMAC3.843.8450.0050.000.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC3.813.8135.7135.71-1.09-1.09
Western MichiganMAC3.793.7953.5753.570.270.27
Eastern MichiganMAC2.442.4460.7160.710.520.52
Ball St.MAC2.422.4260.0060.000.480.48
SyracuseACC1.611.6159.3859.380.300.30
CanisiusMAAC1.611.6167.7467.740.570.57
NiagaraMAAC1.591.5961.2961.290.360.36
St. BonaventureA101.591.5977.4277.420.870.87
Robert MorrisNEC1.541.5450.0050.000.000.00
CincinnatiAmer1.521.5287.8887.881.151.15
DelawareCAA1.521.5240.0040.00-0.30-0.30
Jacksonville St.OVC1.521.5264.5264.520.440.44
NJITASun1.521.5244.4444.44-0.17-0.17
South Dakota St.Sum1.521.5279.3179.310.890.89
Texas A&MSEC1.521.5261.2961.290.340.34
UABCUSA1.521.5260.0060.000.300.30
Cleveland St.Horz0.260.2632.3532.35-0.09-0.09
IonaMAAC0.200.2060.6160.610.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.190.1969.7069.700.080.08
OaklandHorz0.170.1757.5857.580.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.170.1743.3343.33-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.170.1768.7568.750.060.06
Wright St.Horz0.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
DrexelCAA0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Fort WayneSum0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
DaytonA100.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.1412.5012.50-0.11-0.11
RichmondA100.140.1437.5037.50-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.130.1336.6736.67-0.04-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.130.1310.7110.71-0.10-0.10
South DakotaSum0.130.1373.3373.330.060.06
South CarolinaSEC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
DavidsonA100.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.120.1236.3636.36-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.120.1279.4179.410.070.07
SienaMAAC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
CornellIvy0.120.1240.7440.74-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.120.1220.0020.00-0.07-0.07
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.100.103.333.33-0.09-0.09
Green BayHorz0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.109.689.68-0.08-0.08
Saint LouisA100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
MarylandB100.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
ElonCAA0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
PennIvy0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Austin PeayOVC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
MissouriSEC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
WagnerNEC0.100.1070.0070.000.040.04
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
MaristMAAC0.090.0919.3519.35-0.06-0.06
MonmouthMAAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
ValparaisoMVC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
AlbanyAE0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Oregon St.P120.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
MemphisAmer0.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
XavierBE0.090.0984.8584.850.060.06
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0715.6215.62-0.05-0.05
TulsaAmer0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
FordhamA100.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
USCP120.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
Notre DameACC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
TulaneAmer0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.070.0782.7682.760.050.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Wichita St.Amer0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
SMUAmer0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
StetsonASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Montana St.BSky0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
DePaulBE0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
YaleIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
WyomingMWC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
BelmontOVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
LSUSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
BryantNEC0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0593.9493.940.040.04
TempleAmer0.040.0453.1253.120.000.00
UCFAmer0.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
BrownIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
BucknellPat0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.026.676.67-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01
IUPUIHorz0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
OregonP120.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
RiceCUSA0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
ArmyPat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
La SalleA100.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
PacificWCC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.020.0216.1316.13-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Texas St.SB0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
VermontAE0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
DukeACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Little RockSB0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
Miami FLACC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01