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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Virginia

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:7.0
Current RPI:7
Expected SOS:20
Current SOS:20
Current Record:29-3
Expected Record:29-3
Current Conf Record:17-3
Expected Conf Record:17-3
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:12-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:12-0
Expected OOC Record:12-0
Expected OOC RPI:5
Expected OOC SOS:35



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-37.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Virginia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14James Madison (148.0)CAAA51-79W100%0.0
11-16Norfolk St. (167.0)MEACH67-39W100%0.0
11-18South Carolina St. (320.0)MEACH75-55W100%0.0
11-21George Washington (84.0)A10H59-42W100%0.0
11-25Tennessee St. (341.0)OVCH79-36W100%0.0
11-28La Salle (101.0)A10N64-56W100%0.0
11-29Rutgers (178.0)B10N45-26W100%0.0
12-3Maryland (13.0)B10A65-76W100%0.0
12-6VCU (15.0)A10A57-74W100%0.0
12-18Cleveland St. (127.0)HorzH70-54W100%0.0
12-21Harvard (52.0)IvyH76-27W100%0.0
12-30Davidson (35.0)A10H83-72W100%0.0
1-3Miami FL (65.0)ACCA80-89W100%0.0
1-7North Carolina St. (39.0)ACCH61-51W100%0.0
1-10Notre Dame (16.0)ACCA56-62W100%0.0
1-13Clemson (106.0)ACCH65-42W100%0.0
1-17Boston College (165.0)ACCA51-66W100%0.0
1-22Georgia Tech (153.0)ACCH57-28W100%0.0
1-25Virginia Tech (228.0)ACCA47-50W100%0.0
1-31Duke (6.0)ACCH63-69L0%0.0
2-2North Carolina (11.0)ACCA64-75W100%0.0
2-7Louisville (21.0)ACCH52-47W100%0.0
2-11North Carolina St. (39.0)ACCA47-51W100%0.0
2-14Wake Forest (150.0)ACCH61-60W100%0.0
2-16Pittsburgh (76.0)ACCH61-49W100%0.0
2-22Florida St. (110.0)ACCH51-41W100%0.0
2-25Wake Forest (150.0)ACCA34-70W100%0.0
2-28Virginia Tech (228.0)ACCH69-57W100%0.0
3-2Syracuse (69.0)ACCA47-59W100%0.0
3-7Louisville (21.0)ACCA59-57L0%0.0
3-12Florida St. (110.0)ACCN58-44W100%0.0
3-13North Carolina (11.0)ACCN71-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Virginia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Virginia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Virginia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VirginiaACC26.0626.0690.1390.1320.9220.92
North CarolinaACC3.833.8369.7069.701.511.51
Virginia TechACC3.733.7335.4835.48-1.08-1.08
North Carolina St.ACC3.723.7264.5264.521.081.08
LouisvilleACC3.723.7276.6776.671.981.98
Florida St.ACC3.703.7054.8454.840.360.36
Wake ForestACC3.703.7043.3343.33-0.49-0.49
Miami FLACC2.262.2665.6265.620.710.71
ClemsonACC2.232.2353.3353.330.150.15
DukeACC2.232.2387.5087.501.671.67
Boston CollegeACC2.212.2141.9441.94-0.36-0.36
PittsburghACC2.212.2158.0658.060.360.36
Notre DameACC2.212.2187.8887.881.671.67
Georgia TechACC2.182.1840.0040.00-0.44-0.44
SyracuseACC2.142.1460.0060.000.430.43
DavidsonA101.771.7779.3179.311.041.04
VCUA101.741.7476.4776.470.920.92
George WashingtonA101.711.7165.6265.620.530.53
La SalleA101.661.6653.1253.120.100.10
RutgersB101.661.6632.2632.26-0.59-0.59
Norfolk St.MEAC1.641.6460.0060.000.330.33
Cleveland St.Horz1.631.6355.1755.170.170.17
South Carolina St.MEAC1.611.6130.0030.00-0.65-0.65
MarylandB101.611.6184.3884.381.111.11
James MadisonCAA1.591.5961.2961.290.360.36
HarvardIvy1.591.5976.9276.920.850.85
Tennessee St.OVC1.561.5610.7110.71-1.23-1.23
RichmondA100.310.3159.3859.380.060.06
MassachusettsA100.270.2753.1253.120.020.02
DuquesneA100.190.1936.6736.67-0.05-0.05
IndianaB100.190.1960.6160.610.040.04
DaytonA100.190.1975.7675.760.100.10
FordhamA100.190.1930.0030.00-0.08-0.08
HamptonMEAC0.180.1848.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.170.1724.1424.14-0.09-0.09
MinnesotaB100.170.1753.1253.120.010.01
HofstraCAA0.170.1760.6160.610.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.170.1770.0070.000.070.07
George MasonA100.170.1726.6726.67-0.08-0.08
Penn St.B100.170.1752.9452.940.010.01
Ohio St.B100.170.1769.7069.700.070.07
FloridaSEC0.160.1648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
PurdueB100.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
Michigan St.B100.140.1467.6567.650.050.05
PrincetonIvy0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
OaklandHorz0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.130.1367.6567.650.040.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.120.1227.2727.27-0.06-0.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
CharlotteCUSA0.120.1243.7543.75-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.120.1275.8675.860.060.06
ProvidenceBE0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
Saint LouisA100.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
IowaB100.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.1060.7160.710.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.100.1083.3383.330.070.07
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.100.1047.0647.06-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
HowardMEAC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
MichiganB100.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
DrexelCAA0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0959.2659.260.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.090.0925.8125.81-0.05-0.05
The CitadelSC0.090.0929.6329.63-0.04-0.04
VMISC0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.090.09100.00100.000.090.09
William & MaryCAA0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
YaleIvy0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
CornellIvy0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Green BayHorz0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
IonaMAAC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
UCFAmer0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
ElonCAA0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
IllinoisB100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
RadfordBSth0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
WisconsinB100.070.0791.1891.180.060.06
VillanovaBE0.070.0794.1294.120.060.06
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
WoffordSC0.070.0781.2581.250.040.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0790.9190.910.060.06
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0644.4444.44-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Arizona St.P120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
High PointBSth0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
TempleAmer0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
ButlerBE0.040.0468.7568.750.020.02
UABCUSA0.040.0454.5554.550.000.00
UCLAP120.040.0460.6160.610.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.040.0426.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
IPFWSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Kansas St.B120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.020.0210.0010.00-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
USCP120.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
AmericanPat0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
ArmyPat0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0216.1316.13-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
DePaulBE0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
OhioMAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
UMBCAE0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0287.1087.100.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
OregonP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01