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Through games of Feb 27, 2015.


Virginia

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:2.9
Current RPI:3
Expected SOS:20
Current SOS:18
Current Record:26-1
Expected Record:28-2
Current Conf Record:14-1
Expected Conf Record:16-2
Probability of Auto Bid:43.99%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:12-0
Expected OOC Record:12-0
Expected OOC RPI:4
Expected OOC SOS:33



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-12.347.38%
28-23.144.07%
27-34.78.48%
26-47.50.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Virginia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14James Madison (149.6)CAAA51-79W100%0.0
11-16Norfolk St. (152.8)MEACH67-39W100%0.0
11-18South Carolina St. (313.9)MEACH75-55W100%0.0
11-21George Washington (87.9)A10H59-42W100%0.0
11-25Tennessee St. (344.8)OVCH79-36W100%0.0
11-28La Salle (98.6)A10N64-56W100%0.0
11-29Rutgers (166.9)B10N45-26W100%0.0
12-3Maryland (12.6)B10A65-76W100%0.0
12-6VCU (16.4)A10A57-74W100%0.0
12-18Cleveland St. (128.5)HorzH70-54W100%0.0
12-21Harvard (63.2)IvyH76-27W100%0.0
12-30Davidson (39.0)A10H83-72W100%0.0
1-3Miami FL (68.7)ACCA80-89W100%0.0
1-7North Carolina St. (43.8)ACCH61-51W100%0.0
1-10Notre Dame (29.4)ACCA56-62W100%0.0
1-13Clemson (94.7)ACCH65-42W100%0.0
1-17Boston College (190.4)ACCA51-66W100%0.0
1-22Georgia Tech (120.9)ACCH57-28W100%0.0
1-25Virginia Tech (220.1)ACCA47-50W100%0.0
1-31Duke (5.2)ACCH63-69L0%0.0
2-2North Carolina (16.7)ACCA64-75W100%0.0
2-7Louisville (17.4)ACCH52-47W100%0.0
2-11North Carolina St. (43.8)ACCA47-51W100%0.0
2-14Wake Forest (127.2)ACCH61-60W100%0.0
2-16Pittsburgh (52.1)ACCH61-49W100%0.0
2-22Florida St. (121.2)ACCH51-41W100%0.0
2-25Wake Forest (127.2)ACCA34-70W100%0.0
2-28Virginia Tech (220.1)ACCH0-099%25.8
3-2Syracuse (61.5)ACCA0-079%8.7
3-7Louisville (17.4)ACCA0-061%2.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Virginia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Virginia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Virginia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VirginiaACC26.0426.0494.5793.8423.2122.83
LouisvilleACC2.383.8881.4880.911.502.40
North Carolina St.ACC4.203.8765.3865.601.291.21
Wake ForestACC4.173.8746.1544.72-0.32-0.41
Virginia TechACC2.313.8537.0437.18-0.60-0.99
North CarolinaACC2.422.3270.3769.860.990.92
Miami FLACC2.352.2966.6765.200.780.70
ClemsonACC2.382.2957.6955.520.370.25
Boston CollegeACC2.292.2734.6235.61-0.70-0.65
PittsburghACC2.282.2666.6765.060.760.68
SyracuseACC0.532.2664.2961.450.150.52
Florida St.ACC2.382.2653.5752.390.170.11
DukeACC2.352.2688.8987.721.831.71
Georgia TechACC2.412.2644.4443.50-0.27-0.29
Notre DameACC2.382.2485.7184.021.701.52
VCUA102.021.8477.7876.961.120.99
George WashingtonA102.021.8366.6765.620.670.57
DavidsonA101.981.8379.1778.571.161.04
RutgersB101.951.7835.7134.40-0.56-0.55
La SalleA101.961.7555.5654.760.220.17
Cleveland St.Horz1.921.7555.5655.560.210.19
Norfolk St.MEAC1.921.7261.5461.220.440.39
MarylandB101.881.7285.1984.201.331.18
James MadisonCAA1.891.7062.0761.160.460.38
South Carolina St.MEAC1.891.7030.7732.20-0.73-0.60
HarvardIvy1.891.6977.2776.161.030.89
Tennessee St.OVC1.851.6711.1110.93-1.44-1.30
RichmondA100.400.3357.1458.580.060.06
MassachusettsA100.270.2557.1456.550.040.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.170.2024.0025.09-0.09-0.10
DuquesneA100.200.1936.0034.75-0.06-0.06
George MasonA100.170.1926.9226.87-0.08-0.09
FordhamA100.240.1932.0032.35-0.09-0.07
DaytonA100.170.1977.7874.890.090.10
IndianaB100.200.1965.5264.540.060.05
Penn St.B100.200.1953.5750.650.010.00
HamptonMEAC0.130.1742.3141.61-0.02-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.170.1755.1756.100.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.170.1772.0070.730.070.07
HofstraCAA0.160.1663.3363.390.040.04
PurdueB100.190.1667.8664.710.070.05
MinnesotaB100.160.1657.1456.730.020.02
Ohio St.B100.160.1671.4371.530.070.07
PrincetonIvy0.180.1544.0045.65-0.02-0.01
OaklandHorz0.170.1450.0048.920.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.130.1435.7134.86-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.170.1442.3143.94-0.03-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.140.1425.0025.95-0.07-0.07
College of CharlestonCAA0.170.1426.6726.81-0.08-0.06
VanderbiltSEC0.170.1455.5656.260.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.170.1442.8645.65-0.02-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.140.1444.4442.95-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.170.1437.0436.55-0.04-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.170.1453.8555.840.010.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.130.1459.2659.110.020.03
West VirginiaB120.130.1478.5775.030.080.07
FloridaSEC0.160.1346.4346.89-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.160.1367.8665.880.060.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.1119.2320.46-0.08-0.07
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.130.1161.5462.370.030.03
HowardMEAC0.100.1148.0048.61-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.130.1163.3363.510.040.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.130.1175.0077.310.070.06
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.130.1143.3343.00-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.130.1168.9768.490.050.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.130.1150.0050.950.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.130.1151.8549.570.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.130.1167.8667.080.050.04
DrexelCAA0.130.1137.0436.03-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.100.1164.2964.530.030.03
MichiganB100.030.1150.0050.000.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.100.1146.4345.05-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.100.1134.6235.81-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.080.0946.1546.98-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.110.0929.1729.03-0.05-0.04
Green BayHorz0.100.0974.0774.330.050.04
ValparaisoHorz0.100.0982.1482.140.060.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0930.7731.61-0.03-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.070.0942.3141.81-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.093.705.03-0.10-0.08
BelmontOVC0.070.0862.9664.070.020.02
IonaMAAC0.100.0880.0079.580.060.05
MarshallCUSA0.070.0830.7730.30-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.100.0864.2963.780.030.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0830.4332.31-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0834.6234.47-0.02-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.100.0882.1478.230.060.05
NorthwesternB100.100.0850.0048.140.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.0860.0059.770.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.100.0867.8667.390.040.03
ColgatePat0.060.0844.8345.47-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.090.0839.2939.48-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.100.0860.7161.250.020.02
KentuckySEC0.070.08100.0099.450.070.08
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0840.7444.50-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0875.0076.180.030.04
ManhattanMAAC0.100.0853.5753.780.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0893.1090.930.060.07
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0823.0822.51-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.060.0862.9663.070.020.02
SamfordSC0.100.0837.9337.78-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.100.0825.9328.09-0.05-0.04
The CitadelSC0.060.0832.0032.30-0.02-0.03
TowsonCAA0.090.0837.9338.96-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.070.0892.8691.370.060.07
William & MaryCAA0.090.0861.5462.630.020.02
WisconsinB100.100.0889.2987.430.080.06
WoffordSC0.100.0878.5778.860.060.05
BrownIvy0.040.0642.3140.79-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.040.0650.0050.760.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.080.0644.0044.61-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.040.0669.2368.770.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0644.4445.40-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.070.0633.3335.14-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.070.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0617.8618.91-0.04-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0640.7440.86-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.070.0633.3333.99-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0629.6330.57-0.03-0.02
Arizona St.P120.070.0653.5754.190.010.00
BryantNEC0.070.0650.0049.840.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0651.8551.850.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0639.2940.71-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.070.0665.3865.380.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0642.8644.45-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0619.2322.27-0.04-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0631.0332.37-0.03-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0637.0436.29-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.070.0625.9326.73-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0625.0026.21-0.04-0.03
StetsonASun0.070.0623.0822.37-0.04-0.03
UCFAmer0.070.0642.3142.56-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0666.6765.760.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0628.5728.28-0.01-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.070.0514.2916.11-0.05-0.04
High PointBSth0.070.0573.0872.070.030.02
New HampshireAE0.070.0557.6959.090.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0551.7252.280.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.070.0565.3865.140.020.02
WinthropBSth0.070.0552.0053.550.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.070.0573.0873.180.030.02
BucknellPat0.070.0555.1754.540.010.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0521.4322.23-0.02-0.03
DelawareCAA0.060.0532.1432.11-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0538.4638.59-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0522.2224.13-0.04-0.03
FIUCUSA0.030.0542.3140.94-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.050.001.32-0.06-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0533.3337.78-0.02-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0522.2221.87-0.04-0.03
LibertyBSth0.030.0515.3815.97-0.02-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.060.0521.4322.47-0.04-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.030.0540.7440.55-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0553.3354.170.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0519.0521.40-0.04-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0544.8345.59-0.01-0.00
Seton HallBE0.060.0555.5654.640.010.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0566.6763.990.010.02
TempleAmer0.070.0568.9768.670.030.02
TulaneAmer0.070.0550.0049.880.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0540.0041.11-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0560.0058.420.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0325.0026.57-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.040.0351.8551.670.000.00
VermontAE0.040.0359.2658.740.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0372.0070.100.010.01
MontanaBSky0.040.0356.0055.800.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0325.0024.45-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0325.0024.39-0.02-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0322.2222.17-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.030.0374.0773.880.020.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0373.9170.390.020.01
LipscombASun0.030.0336.0037.68-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0351.8551.810.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0385.1984.500.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0355.5656.230.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0338.4639.98-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0328.0029.37-0.02-0.01
TCUB120.030.0360.7157.540.010.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.5460.520.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0355.5657.590.000.00
Texas TechB120.030.0341.3839.54-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0355.5654.230.000.00
AuburnSEC0.030.0340.7439.44-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.8553.120.000.00
IPFWSum0.030.0348.0049.57-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.030.0371.4370.000.010.01
MaineAE0.030.0310.7110.50-0.03-0.02
MaristMAAC0.030.0320.6920.37-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.030.0340.7441.17-0.01-0.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0324.0025.41-0.02-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0350.0050.670.000.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0366.6767.380.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0346.1547.78-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
USCP120.030.0335.7135.30-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0360.7160.850.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0351.7252.130.000.00
ArmyPat0.030.0351.8551.090.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0324.0025.19-0.02-0.01
ButlerBE0.030.0371.4370.890.010.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0357.1454.100.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0316.6716.92-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0315.3815.96-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.030.0344.4444.97-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0359.2658.310.010.00
DePaulBE0.030.0341.3840.25-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0353.8553.030.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0324.1424.67-0.02-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0369.2369.920.010.01
FurmanSC0.030.0323.0822.71-0.02-0.01
HartfordAE0.030.0348.1547.54-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0360.7160.790.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0360.7160.580.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0374.0773.060.020.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0348.2846.44-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.0339.2939.90-0.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0340.7439.81-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.030.0335.7135.96-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0359.2660.580.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0340.0040.28-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0333.3332.58-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0361.5461.360.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0377.7878.480.020.02
OregonP120.030.0371.4369.280.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0353.5753.110.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0377.7877.770.020.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0325.9327.35-0.02-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0351.8551.130.000.00
StanfordP120.030.0366.6764.450.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0351.8553.170.000.00
UCLAP120.030.0358.6260.540.010.01
UMBCAE0.030.0314.2914.93-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0325.9326.41-0.02-0.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0333.3332.94-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0389.2988.690.030.02