Virginia

Conference:	ACC
Expected RPI:	1.0
Current RPI:	1
Expected SOS:	6
Current SOS:	6
Current Record:	31-2
Expected Record:	31-2
Current Conf Record:	20-1
Expected Conf Record:	20-1
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	9-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	3-0
Current OOC Record:	11-1
Expected OOC Record:	11-1
Expected OOC RPI:	4
Expected OOC SOS:	42

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
31-2	1.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Virginia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	UNC Greensboro (65.0)	SC	H	60-48	W	100%
11-13	Austin Peay (164.0)	OVC	H	93-49	W	100%
11-17	VCU (135.0)	A10	A	67-76	W	100%
11-19	Monmouth (199.0)	MAAC	H	73-53	W	100%
11-23	Vanderbilt (132.0)	SEC	N	42-68	W	100%
11-24	Rhode Island (19.0)	A10	N	55-70	W	100%
11-27	Wisconsin (114.0)	B10	H	49-37	W	100%
12-2	Lehigh (214.0)	Pat	H	75-54	W	100%
12-5	West Virginia (27.0)	B12	A	68-61	L	0%
12-16	Davidson (47.0)	A10	H	80-60	W	100%
12-19	Savannah St. (197.0)	MEAC	H	78-47	W	100%
12-22	Hampton (237.0)	MEAC	H	82-48	W	100%
12-30	Boston College (96.0)	ACC	H	59-58	W	100%
1-3	Virginia Tech (61.0)	ACC	A	52-78	W	100%
1-6	North Carolina (4.0)	ACC	H	61-49	W	100%
1-9	Syracuse (45.0)	ACC	H	68-61	W	100%
1-14	North Carolina St. (64.0)	ACC	H	68-51	W	100%
1-18	Georgia Tech (161.0)	ACC	A	48-64	W	100%
1-21	Wake Forest (160.0)	ACC	A	49-59	W	100%
1-23	Clemson (11.0)	ACC	H	61-36	W	100%
1-27	Duke (7.0)	ACC	A	63-65	W	100%
1-31	Louisville (38.0)	ACC	H	74-64	W	100%
2-3	Syracuse (45.0)	ACC	A	44-59	W	100%
2-7	Florida St. (54.0)	ACC	A	55-59	W	100%
2-10	Virginia Tech (61.0)	ACC	H	60-61	L	0%
2-13	Miami FL (28.0)	ACC	A	50-59	W	100%
2-21	Georgia Tech (161.0)	ACC	H	65-54	W	100%
2-24	Pittsburgh (217.0)	ACC	A	37-66	W	100%
3-1	Louisville (38.0)	ACC	A	66-67	W	100%
3-3	Notre Dame (70.0)	ACC	H	62-57	W	100%
3-8	Louisville (38.0)	ACC	N	75-58	W	100%
3-9	Clemson (11.0)	ACC	N	64-58	W	100%
3-10	North Carolina (4.0)	ACC	N	71-63	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Virginia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Virginia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Virginia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Virginia	ACC	26.15	26.15	93.46	93.46	22.73	22.73
Louisville	ACC	5.09	5.09	66.67	66.67	1.70	1.70
North Carolina	ACC	3.71	3.71	75.76	75.76	1.91	1.91
Clemson	ACC	3.63	3.63	76.67	76.67	1.94	1.94
Syracuse	ACC	3.61	3.61	64.52	64.52	1.05	1.05
Virginia Tech	ACC	3.61	3.61	66.67	66.67	1.20	1.20
Georgia Tech	ACC	3.59	3.59	43.33	43.33	-0.48	-0.48
Boston College	ACC	2.22	2.22	57.58	57.58	0.34	0.34
Pittsburgh	ACC	2.21	2.21	25.81	25.81	-1.07	-1.07
Notre Dame	ACC	2.21	2.21	59.38	59.38	0.41	0.41
Florida St.	ACC	2.21	2.21	66.67	66.67	0.74	0.74
Wake Forest	ACC	2.19	2.19	36.67	36.67	-0.58	-0.58
Duke	ACC	2.19	2.19	81.25	81.25	1.37	1.37
North Carolina St.	ACC	2.17	2.17	67.74	67.74	0.77	0.77
Miami FL	ACC	2.14	2.14	73.33	73.33	1.00	1.00
Davidson	A10	1.65	1.65	67.74	67.74	0.59	0.59
Rhode Island	A10	1.63	1.63	80.65	80.65	1.00	1.00
VCU	A10	1.59	1.59	56.25	56.25	0.20	0.20
Hampton	MEAC	1.57	1.57	53.33	53.33	0.10	0.10
Savannah St.	MEAC	1.56	1.56	44.83	44.83	-0.16	-0.16
Lehigh	Pat	1.56	1.56	53.57	53.57	0.11	0.11
UNC Greensboro	SC	1.56	1.56	80.00	80.00	0.94	0.94
Monmouth	MAAC	1.54	1.54	36.67	36.67	-0.41	-0.41
Vanderbilt	SEC	1.54	1.54	38.71	38.71	-0.35	-0.35
Austin Peay	OVC	1.54	1.54	55.17	55.17	0.16	0.16
West Virginia	B12	1.54	1.54	69.70	69.70	0.61	0.61
Wisconsin	B10	1.52	1.52	46.88	46.88	-0.09	-0.09
Kentucky	SEC	0.21	0.21	70.59	70.59	0.09	0.09
George Washington	A10	0.19	0.19	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.19	0.19	78.12	78.12	0.11	0.11
Tennessee	SEC	0.19	0.19	75.76	75.76	0.10	0.10
Michigan St.	B10	0.18	0.18	87.88	87.88	0.14	0.14
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.17	0.17	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.17	0.17	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.17	0.17	26.67	26.67	-0.08	-0.08
Wofford	SC	0.16	0.16	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Fordham	A10	0.16	0.16	29.03	29.03	-0.07	-0.07
Richmond	A10	0.16	0.16	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Seton Hall	BE	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
George Mason	A10	0.16	0.16	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.15	0.15	24.24	24.24	-0.08	-0.08
The Citadel	SC	0.15	0.15	27.59	27.59	-0.07	-0.07
Siena	MAAC	0.14	0.14	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.14	0.14	15.62	15.62	-0.10	-0.10
Bucknell	Pat	0.14	0.14	73.53	73.53	0.07	0.07
Florida	SEC	0.14	0.14	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Saint Louis	A10	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.14	0.14	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Dayton	A10	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.14	0.14	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Indiana	B10	0.14	0.14	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.12	0.12	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
VMI	SC	0.12	0.12	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Iona	MAAC	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.12	0.12	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.12	0.12	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Baylor	B12	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.11	0.11	82.35	82.35	0.07	0.07
Texas Tech	B12	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Ohio St.	B10	0.11	0.11	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
Kansas	B12	0.11	0.11	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
Boston University	Pat	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Rider	MAAC	0.10	0.10	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.10	0.10	16.67	16.67	-0.06	-0.06
Samford	SC	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Illinois	B10	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.10	0.10	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Georgia	SEC	0.09	0.09	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.09	0.09	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Albany	AE	0.09	0.09	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.09	0.09	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.09	0.09	9.68	9.68	-0.07	-0.07
Maryland	B10	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.09	0.09	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.09	0.09	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Army	Pat	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola MD	Pat	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Holy Cross	Pat	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.07	0.07	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.07	0.07	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Belmont	OVC	0.07	0.07	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	6.67	6.67	-0.06	-0.06
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.07	0.07	19.35	19.35	-0.04	-0.04
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.07	0.07	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
Morehead St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	22.22	22.22	-0.04	-0.04
Furman	SC	0.07	0.07	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.07	0.07	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.07	0.07	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Appalachian St.	SB	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.07	0.07	10.71	10.71	-0.06	-0.06
Mississippi	SEC	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Radford	BSth	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Connecticut	Amer	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.07	0.07	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
LSU	SEC	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.07	0.07	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Temple	Amer	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Memphis	Amer	0.07	0.07	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.07	0.07	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
TCU	B12	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.07	0.07	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Tulane	Amer	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.07	0.07	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	82.76	82.76	0.03	0.03
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
USC	P12	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Georgia Southern	SB	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Mercer	SC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.05	0.05	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Wichita St.	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Charlotte	CUSA	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
Hawaii	BW	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.05	0.05	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	83.33	83.33	0.03	0.03
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	CAA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	BE	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.03	0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
North Texas	CUSA	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.02	0.02
Chicago St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	3.33	3.33	-0.04	-0.04
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Horz	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.05	23.08	23.08	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.04	0.04	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.04	0.04	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.04	0.04	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Stanford	P12	0.04	0.04	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Houston	Amer	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.02	0.02	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.02	0.02	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Penn	Ivy	0.02	0.02	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Akron	MAC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.02	0.02	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	CAA	0.02	0.02	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
High Point	BSth	0.02	0.02	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Montana	BSky	0.02	0.02	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Towson	CAA	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.02	0.02	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
California	P12	0.02	0.02	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Green Bay	Horz	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Milwaukee	Horz	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.02	0.02	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
UMass Lowell	AE	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.02	0.02	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Columbia	Ivy	0.02	0.02	26.92	26.92	-0.01	-0.01
Hartford	AE	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Maine	AE	0.02	0.02	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
NJIT	ASun	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
UCF	Amer	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00