The results on this page EXCLUDE CONFERNCE TOURNAMENT FORECASTS and are UPDATED DAILY

New! For the weekly updated Virginia page with conference tournament forecasts, click here.

Through games of Feb 7, 2010.

Virginia

Conference:		ACC
Expected RPI:		92.0
Current RPI:		94
Expected SOS:		57
Current SOS:		106
Current Record:		14-7
Expected Record:		17-12
Current Conf Record:		5-3
Expected Conf Record:		8-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:		1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:		2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:		3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:		5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:		5-1
Current OOC Record:		9-4
Expected OOC Record:		9-4
Expected OOC RPI:		160
Expected OOC SOS:		277

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
21-8	45.1	0.11%
20-9	54.0	1.37%
19-10	64.3	6.18%
18-11	74.2	16.16%
17-12	85.5	28.00%
16-13	98.9	29.01%
15-14	114.6	15.85%
14-15	132.7	3.31%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Virginia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-13	Longwood (286.8)	ind	H	85-72	W	100%	0.0
11-16	South Florida (64.9)	BE	A	49-66	L	0%	0.0
11-19	Rider (159.5)	MAAC	H	79-46	W	100%	0.0
11-21	Oral Roberts (122.0)	Sum	H	76-55	W	100%	0.0
11-24	Stanford (173.0)	P10	N	52-57	L	0%	0.0
11-25	Cleveland St. (144.7)	Horz	N	76-65	W	100%	0.0
11-30	Penn St. (209.9)	B10	H	66-69	L	0%	0.0
12-7	Auburn (163.8)	SEC	A	67-68	L	0%	0.0
12-21	NJ Inst of Technology (333.3)	GWC	H	68-37	W	100%	0.0
12-23	Hampton (286.6)	MEAC	H	80-54	W	100%	0.0
12-30	UAB (34.4)	CUSA	H	72-63	W	100%	0.0
1-5	Texas Pan American (326.2)	GWC	H	72-53	W	100%	0.0
1-9	North Carolina St. (110.7)	ACC	A	70-62	W	100%	0.0
1-13	Georgia Tech (25.2)	ACC	H	82-75	W	100%	0.0
1-16	Miami FL (90.7)	ACC	H	75-57	W	100%	0.0
1-18	NC Wilmington (217.4)	CAA	H	69-67	W	100%	0.0
1-23	Wake Forest (25.2)	ACC	A	57-69	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Virginia Tech (62.2)	ACC	H	71-76	L	0%	0.0
1-31	North Carolina (83.6)	ACC	A	75-60	W	100%	0.0
2-3	North Carolina St. (110.7)	ACC	H	59-47	W	100%	0.0
2-6	Wake Forest (25.2)	ACC	H	61-64	L	0%	0.0
2-10	Maryland (35.5)	ACC	A	0-0		17%	-10.5
2-13	Virginia Tech (62.2)	ACC	A	0-0		32%	-5.2
2-17	Florida St. (41.5)	ACC	H	0-0		52%	0.4
2-20	Clemson (37.6)	ACC	A	0-0		21%	-8.7
2-23	Miami FL (90.7)	ACC	A	0-0		35%	-4.1
2-28	Duke (3.7)	ACC	H	0-0		22%	-8.4
3-3	Boston College (106.8)	ACC	A	0-0		43%	-2.0
3-6	Maryland (35.5)	ACC	H	0-0		41%	-2.5

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Virginia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Sorted by , Current Weight, End-Of-Season Weight, Current Help Index, Expected Help Index, and then Alphabetically.

Weights are percentages.

Virginia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Virginia.

Help Ind is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

BY CURRENT WEIGHT: (top)

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Help	Exp Help
Virginia	ACC	26.33	26.14	59.77	52.88	5.14	1.50
Wake Forest	ACC	5.18	4.08	73.68	68.93	2.45	1.55
North Carolina St.	ACC	5.04	4.09	63.64	58.06	1.37	0.66
Miami FL	ACC	2.77	4.06	71.43	64.98	1.19	1.22
North Carolina	ACC	2.76	2.39	59.09	53.69	0.50	0.18
Virginia Tech	ACC	2.70	4.09	80.95	71.74	1.67	1.78
NC Wilmington	CAA	2.65	1.90	31.82	33.48	-0.96	-0.63
Georgia Tech	ACC	2.65	2.33	76.19	70.56	1.39	0.96
Oral Roberts	Sum	2.55	1.81	56.52	60.57	0.33	0.38
Longwood	ind	2.50	1.90	25.00	30.53	-1.25	-0.74
Penn St.	B10	2.49	1.81	31.82	29.89	-0.90	-0.73
South Florida	BE	2.49	1.78	63.64	60.87	0.68	0.39
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	2.49	1.84	23.53	28.66	-1.32	-0.79
Auburn	SEC	2.48	1.81	42.86	40.65	-0.35	-0.34
Texas Pan American	GWC	2.45	1.79	12.50	19.44	-1.84	-1.09
Hampton	MEAC	2.43	1.78	33.33	43.70	-0.81	-0.22
Stanford	P10	2.43	1.75	40.91	41.13	-0.44	-0.31
Cleveland St.	Horz	2.38	1.72	47.62	48.48	-0.11	-0.05
Rider	MAAC	2.38	1.72	54.17	50.98	0.20	0.03
UAB	CUSA	2.38	1.72	86.36	81.27	1.73	1.08
Maryland	ACC	0.38	4.03	71.43	67.60	0.16	1.42
Florida St.	ACC	0.37	2.40	73.91	70.22	0.18	0.97
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.36	0.23	19.05	22.94	-0.22	-0.13
Duke	ACC	0.32	2.34	82.61	82.47	0.21	1.52
William & Mary	CAA	0.28	0.24	68.18	66.65	0.10	0.08
NC Greensboro	SC	0.27	0.29	21.74	24.84	-0.15	-0.15
Elon	SC	0.26	0.15	19.05	23.26	-0.16	-0.08
Kentucky	SEC	0.26	0.14	95.65	88.67	0.24	0.11
Clemson	ACC	0.26	2.33	69.57	66.47	0.10	0.77
North Carolina Central	ind	0.26	0.26	4.76	9.78	-0.23	-0.21
Boston College	ACC	0.23	2.40	52.17	48.46	0.01	-0.07
High Point	BSth	0.22	0.12	42.86	44.37	-0.03	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.22	0.12	75.00	71.23	0.11	0.05
Rutgers	BE	0.22	0.12	47.83	42.90	-0.01	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.22	0.21	59.09	54.41	0.04	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.21	0.18	55.00	53.61	0.02	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.21	0.12	70.59	72.98	0.08	0.05
Georgia St.	CAA	0.20	0.14	37.50	38.45	-0.05	-0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.20	0.17	69.57	67.93	0.08	0.06
Seton Hall	BE	0.17	0.12	57.14	57.47	0.02	0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.17	0.09	65.22	65.74	0.05	0.03
Winston Salem St.	ind	0.17	0.18	29.41	29.63	-0.07	-0.07
East Carolina	CUSA	0.17	0.12	20.00	21.94	-0.10	-0.07
Purdue	B10	0.17	0.12	86.36	81.80	0.12	0.08
Campbell	ASun	0.16	0.12	57.14	58.76	0.02	0.02
Chicago St.	GWC	0.16	0.12	20.00	20.57	-0.10	-0.07
Manhattan	MAAC	0.16	0.09	33.33	35.33	-0.05	-0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.16	0.14	47.62	45.44	-0.01	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.16	0.09	47.83	46.11	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.16	0.09	62.50	57.74	0.04	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.16	0.12	63.64	64.66	0.04	0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.16	0.14	75.00	73.72	0.08	0.07
Southern California	P10	0.16	0.09	60.87	59.61	0.03	0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.16	0.15	31.82	29.58	-0.06	-0.06
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.16	0.09	77.27	77.12	0.09	0.05
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.15	0.11	8.70	11.46	-0.13	-0.09
Georgia Southern	SC	0.15	0.08	17.39	20.11	-0.10	-0.05
Arizona	P10	0.15	0.11	52.17	53.65	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.15	0.11	72.00	70.73	0.07	0.05
Wagner	NEC	0.13	0.07	16.00	21.62	-0.09	-0.04
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.11	0.09	58.33	58.93	0.02	0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.11	0.12	36.84	39.02	-0.03	-0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.11	0.09	81.82	83.61	0.07	0.06
Xavier	A10	0.11	0.06	69.57	71.43	0.04	0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.11	0.09	29.17	28.85	-0.05	-0.04
Old Dominion	CAA	0.11	0.06	72.00	73.54	0.05	0.03
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.11	0.15	40.00	40.09	-0.02	-0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.11	0.09	26.09	26.91	-0.05	-0.04
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.11	0.06	22.73	22.57	-0.06	-0.03
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.11	0.06	52.38	49.31	0.01	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.11	0.12	25.00	34.68	-0.05	-0.04
Pepperdine	WCC	0.11	0.09	27.27	25.31	-0.05	-0.04
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.11	0.12	52.94	56.30	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.11	0.06	28.57	27.72	-0.05	-0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.11	0.09	52.17	48.47	0.00	-0.00
Butler	Horz	0.11	0.12	83.33	83.91	0.07	0.08
Central Florida	CUSA	0.11	0.09	47.62	44.47	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.11	0.15	45.45	47.48	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.11	0.09	33.33	30.82	-0.04	-0.03
Robert Morris	NEC	0.11	0.06	66.67	64.02	0.04	0.02
Temple	A10	0.11	0.09	79.17	77.57	0.06	0.05
Towson	CAA	0.11	0.09	22.73	23.47	-0.06	-0.05
Troy	SB	0.11	0.06	47.62	50.38	-0.01	0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.11	0.09	40.91	43.37	-0.02	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.11	0.09	21.05	22.43	-0.06	-0.05
West Virginia	BE	0.11	0.06	86.36	82.20	0.08	0.04
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.11	0.09	60.87	57.71	0.02	0.01
South Dakota	GWC	0.10	0.15	50.00	60.53	0.00	0.03
IUPUI	Sum	0.10	0.09	65.22	67.00	0.03	0.03
Cincinnati	BE	0.10	0.15	60.87	55.54	0.02	0.02
Davidson	SC	0.10	0.06	47.62	50.81	-0.00	0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.10	0.08	20.00	23.58	-0.06	-0.04
Illinois	B10	0.10	0.09	66.67	59.01	0.03	0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.10	0.09	43.48	39.98	-0.01	-0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.10	0.06	69.57	70.29	0.04	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.10	0.09	66.67	65.54	0.03	0.03
Notre Dame	BE	0.10	0.06	70.83	63.39	0.04	0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.10	0.06	33.33	33.43	-0.03	-0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.10	0.06	45.00	43.95	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.10	0.06	95.83	91.37	0.09	0.05
UCLA	P10	0.10	0.06	47.83	43.79	-0.00	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.10	0.14	78.26	78.92	0.06	0.08
La Salle	A10	0.10	0.06	47.83	46.36	-0.00	-0.00
Monmouth	NEC	0.10	0.06	41.67	42.69	-0.02	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.10	0.08	52.00	51.84	0.00	0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.10	0.09	83.33	81.25	0.07	0.05
Louisville	BE	0.10	0.06	65.22	62.07	0.03	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.10	0.09	77.27	70.93	0.06	0.04
Texas	B12	0.10	0.06	82.61	78.76	0.06	0.03
Akron	MAC	0.10	0.06	69.57	66.00	0.04	0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.10	0.08	52.17	55.04	0.00	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.10	0.11	73.91	67.72	0.05	0.04
Holy Cross	Pat	0.10	0.06	26.09	31.05	-0.05	-0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.10	0.06	42.86	45.31	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.10	0.11	65.22	66.09	0.03	0.04
New Orleans	SB	0.10	0.06	22.73	22.86	-0.05	-0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.06	33.33	33.96	-0.03	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.10	0.06	66.67	69.41	0.03	0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.09	50.00	50.91	0.00	0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.10	0.08	52.38	54.80	0.00	0.01
Missouri	B12	0.10	0.06	73.91	70.60	0.05	0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.10	0.06	82.61	75.26	0.06	0.03
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.10	0.06	50.00	51.56	0.00	0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.10	0.06	4.17	4.73	-0.09	-0.05
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.10	0.11	69.57	68.48	0.04	0.04
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.10	0.08	47.37	52.55	-0.01	0.00
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.10	0.06	55.56	58.32	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.07	0.12	22.73	24.05	-0.04	-0.06
Lafayette	Pat	0.07	0.03	60.87	59.16	0.01	0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.07	0.03	68.18	68.72	0.02	0.01
Vermont	AE	0.07	0.03	68.00	67.20	0.02	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.07	0.03	36.36	38.12	-0.02	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.06	0.03	22.73	21.40	-0.03	-0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.06	0.03	27.27	31.08	-0.03	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.06	0.03	40.00	39.13	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.03	47.83	44.73	-0.00	-0.00
Savannah St.	ind	0.06	0.06	30.00	31.19	-0.02	-0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.03	68.42	67.04	0.02	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.09	56.52	54.14	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.06	28.57	36.52	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	33.33	39.38	-0.02	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.03	33.33	46.80	-0.02	-0.00
Boston University	AE	0.05	0.03	54.17	57.70	0.00	0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.06	23.81	27.31	-0.03	-0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.06	78.26	71.72	0.03	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	11.11	20.93	-0.04	-0.02
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.03	72.73	71.91	0.02	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	47.06	50.65	-0.00	0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.06	56.52	58.43	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.03	9.52	8.87	-0.04	-0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.06	25.00	26.64	-0.03	-0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.03	81.82	79.60	0.03	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.03	43.48	39.42	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.06	39.13	35.38	-0.01	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.03	27.27	29.40	-0.02	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.06	42.86	42.46	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.06	73.91	72.52	0.03	0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	66.67	64.62	0.02	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	70.83	73.80	0.02	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	23.81	27.28	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.06	18.18	21.04	-0.03	-0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.03	40.00	42.64	-0.01	-0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.09	14.29	15.65	-0.04	-0.06
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.03	81.82	75.66	0.03	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.03	76.19	73.20	0.03	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	79.17	77.30	0.03	0.02
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.06	50.00	50.99	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.06	62.50	65.32	0.01	0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.03	33.33	30.72	-0.02	-0.01
Albany	AE	0.05	0.03	23.08	25.77	-0.03	-0.01
American	Pat	0.05	0.03	30.43	32.39	-0.02	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.03	55.00	60.15	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P10	0.05	0.09	66.67	67.74	0.02	0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.03	36.36	36.06	-0.01	-0.01
California	P10	0.05	0.06	65.22	68.42	0.02	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	52.29	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.06	66.67	65.62	0.02	0.02
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.03	50.00	53.75	0.00	0.00
Florida International	SB	0.05	0.06	24.00	23.74	-0.03	-0.03
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.03	54.55	55.07	0.00	0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.06	77.27	73.36	0.03	0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.09	45.83	47.77	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.09	40.91	34.84	-0.01	-0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	38.10	41.29	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.06	69.57	69.99	0.02	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.09	45.45	44.00	-0.00	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.09	79.17	76.61	0.03	0.05
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.03	52.17	54.94	0.00	0.00
Nevada	WAC	0.05	0.03	57.14	60.54	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.06	66.67	68.11	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.03	69.57	63.55	0.02	0.01
Oregon	P10	0.05	0.06	54.55	48.81	0.00	-0.00
Oregon St.	P10	0.05	0.06	45.45	40.28	-0.00	-0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.06	16.67	19.94	-0.03	-0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.03	73.91	70.80	0.02	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	38.10	39.65	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.06	12.50	15.31	-0.04	-0.04
Providence	BE	0.05	0.09	52.17	46.62	0.00	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.03	31.82	30.34	-0.02	-0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.03	52.17	53.84	0.00	0.00
Samford	SC	0.05	0.03	28.57	31.03	-0.02	-0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.03	31.82	32.31	-0.02	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.03	47.83	47.55	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.06	55.56	55.85	0.01	0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.06	77.27	75.69	0.03	0.03
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.03	68.18	59.30	0.02	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.03	35.00	33.21	-0.02	-0.01
Washington	P10	0.05	0.06	69.57	68.86	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P10	0.05	0.06	63.64	58.79	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.03	23.81	28.38	-0.03	-0.01
Centenary	Sum	0.05	0.06	27.27	27.20	-0.02	-0.03
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	56.52	54.46	0.01	0.00
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.06	38.10	38.08	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.03	87.50	83.52	0.04	0.02
Southern Utah	Sum	0.05	0.06	19.05	20.55	-0.03	-0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.06	30.00	31.79	-0.02	-0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.03	35.00	30.59	-0.01	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.03	39.13	38.63	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.06	44.00	45.15	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.12	69.57	64.51	0.02	0.03
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.03	47.62	44.73	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska	B12	0.05	0.03	56.52	50.42	0.01	0.00
North Dakota	GWC	0.05	0.12	15.79	27.84	-0.03	-0.05
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.03	45.00	45.40	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.06	39.13	36.57	-0.01	-0.02
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.03	40.91	38.27	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	36.84	36.82	-0.01	-0.01
Bryant	ind	0.00	0.03	0.00	4.18	-0.00	-0.03
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.00	0.03	80.95	82.07	0.00	0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.00	0.06	60.87	56.49	0.00	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.00	0.03	15.79	17.64	-0.00	-0.02
DePaul	BE	0.00	0.03	34.78	33.89	-0.00	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.00	0.03	56.00	55.91	0.00	0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.00	0.06	65.22	64.71	0.00	0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.00	0.03	33.33	33.00	-0.00	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.00	0.03	42.86	41.05	-0.00	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.00	0.03	73.68	75.41	0.00	0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.00	0.03	47.62	50.82	-0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.00	0.03	56.52	50.47	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.00	0.03	56.52	59.89	0.00	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.00	0.03	42.86	41.51	-0.00	-0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.00	0.06	42.86	45.66	-0.00	-0.00
Maine	AE	0.00	0.03	63.64	61.86	0.00	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.00	0.03	31.82	31.64	-0.00	-0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.00	0.06	35.00	38.23	-0.00	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.00	0.03	91.30	88.21	0.00	0.02
Radford	BSth	0.00	0.06	52.38	56.23	0.00	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.00	0.03	86.36	81.50	0.00	0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.00	0.03	43.48	43.78	-0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.00	0.06	54.55	49.24	0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.00	0.03	5.00	8.59	-0.00	-0.02
Texas A&M	B12	0.00	0.03	72.73	66.85	0.00	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.00	0.03	8.70	10.09	-0.00	-0.02
Villanova	BE	0.00	0.09	90.91	82.52	0.00	0.06
Western Carolina	SC	0.00	0.03	71.43	69.51	0.00	0.01

BY END-OF-SEASON WEIGHT: (top)

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Help	Exp Help
Virginia	ACC	26.33	26.14	59.77	52.88	5.14	1.50
North Carolina St.	ACC	5.04	4.09	63.64	58.06	1.37	0.66
Virginia Tech	ACC	2.70	4.09	80.95	71.74	1.67	1.78
Wake Forest	ACC	5.18	4.08	73.68	68.93	2.45	1.55
Miami FL	ACC	2.77	4.06	71.43	64.98	1.19	1.22
Maryland	ACC	0.38	4.03	71.43	67.60	0.16	1.42
Boston College	ACC	0.23	2.40	52.17	48.46	0.01	-0.07
Florida St.	ACC	0.37	2.40	73.91	70.22	0.18	0.97
North Carolina	ACC	2.76	2.39	59.09	53.69	0.50	0.18
Duke	ACC	0.32	2.34	82.61	82.47	0.21	1.52
Clemson	ACC	0.26	2.33	69.57	66.47	0.10	0.77
Georgia Tech	ACC	2.65	2.33	76.19	70.56	1.39	0.96
Longwood	ind	2.50	1.90	25.00	30.53	-1.25	-0.74
NC Wilmington	CAA	2.65	1.90	31.82	33.48	-0.96	-0.63
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	2.49	1.84	23.53	28.66	-1.32	-0.79
Oral Roberts	Sum	2.55	1.81	56.52	60.57	0.33	0.38
Penn St.	B10	2.49	1.81	31.82	29.89	-0.90	-0.73
Auburn	SEC	2.48	1.81	42.86	40.65	-0.35	-0.34
Texas Pan American	GWC	2.45	1.79	12.50	19.44	-1.84	-1.09
Hampton	MEAC	2.43	1.78	33.33	43.70	-0.81	-0.22
South Florida	BE	2.49	1.78	63.64	60.87	0.68	0.39
Stanford	P10	2.43	1.75	40.91	41.13	-0.44	-0.31
Cleveland St.	Horz	2.38	1.72	47.62	48.48	-0.11	-0.05
Rider	MAAC	2.38	1.72	54.17	50.98	0.20	0.03
UAB	CUSA	2.38	1.72	86.36	81.27	1.73	1.08
NC Greensboro	SC	0.27	0.29	21.74	24.84	-0.15	-0.15
North Carolina Central	ind	0.26	0.26	4.76	9.78	-0.23	-0.21
William & Mary	CAA	0.28	0.24	68.18	66.65	0.10	0.08
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.36	0.23	19.05	22.94	-0.22	-0.13
South Carolina	SEC	0.22	0.21	59.09	54.41	0.04	0.02
Winston Salem St.	ind	0.17	0.18	29.41	29.63	-0.07	-0.07
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.21	0.18	55.00	53.61	0.02	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.20	0.17	69.57	67.93	0.08	0.06
South Dakota	GWC	0.10	0.15	50.00	60.53	0.00	0.03
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.11	0.15	45.45	47.48	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	SC	0.26	0.15	19.05	23.26	-0.16	-0.08
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.11	0.15	40.00	40.09	-0.02	-0.03
Cincinnati	BE	0.10	0.15	60.87	55.54	0.02	0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.16	0.15	31.82	29.58	-0.06	-0.06
Wisconsin	B10	0.10	0.14	78.26	78.92	0.06	0.08
Georgia	SEC	0.16	0.14	47.62	45.44	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.20	0.14	37.50	38.45	-0.05	-0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.16	0.14	75.00	73.72	0.08	0.07
Kentucky	SEC	0.26	0.14	95.65	88.67	0.24	0.11
Richmond	A10	0.22	0.12	75.00	71.23	0.11	0.05
High Point	BSth	0.22	0.12	42.86	44.37	-0.03	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.16	0.12	20.00	20.57	-0.10	-0.07
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.07	0.12	22.73	24.05	-0.04	-0.06
North Dakota	GWC	0.05	0.12	15.79	27.84	-0.03	-0.05
Utah Valley	GWC	0.11	0.12	36.84	39.02	-0.03	-0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.17	0.12	57.14	57.47	0.02	0.02
Campbell	ASun	0.16	0.12	57.14	58.76	0.02	0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.17	0.12	20.00	21.94	-0.10	-0.07
Purdue	B10	0.17	0.12	86.36	81.80	0.12	0.08
Rutgers	BE	0.22	0.12	47.83	42.90	-0.01	-0.02
Butler	Horz	0.11	0.12	83.33	83.91	0.07	0.08
Minnesota	B10	0.16	0.12	63.64	64.66	0.04	0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.11	0.12	25.00	34.68	-0.05	-0.04
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.11	0.12	52.94	56.30	0.01	0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.12	69.57	64.51	0.02	0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.21	0.12	70.59	72.98	0.08	0.05
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.15	0.11	8.70	11.46	-0.13	-0.09
Arizona	P10	0.15	0.11	52.17	53.65	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.10	0.11	73.91	67.72	0.05	0.04
Iona	MAAC	0.15	0.11	72.00	70.73	0.07	0.05
Marquette	BE	0.10	0.11	65.22	66.09	0.03	0.04
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.10	0.11	69.57	68.48	0.04	0.04
Lehigh	Pat	0.17	0.09	65.22	65.74	0.05	0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.11	0.09	29.17	28.85	-0.05	-0.04
James Madison	CAA	0.10	0.09	43.48	39.98	-0.01	-0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.16	0.09	47.83	46.11	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.11	0.09	81.82	83.61	0.07	0.06
George Mason	CAA	0.16	0.09	62.50	57.74	0.04	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.16	0.09	33.33	35.33	-0.05	-0.03
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.11	0.09	58.33	58.93	0.02	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.09	40.91	34.84	-0.01	-0.03
Pepperdine	WCC	0.11	0.09	27.27	25.31	-0.05	-0.04
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.09	14.29	15.65	-0.04	-0.06
Towson	CAA	0.11	0.09	22.73	23.47	-0.06	-0.05
Villanova	BE	0.00	0.09	90.91	82.52	0.00	0.06
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.16	0.09	77.27	77.12	0.09	0.05
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.11	0.09	60.87	57.71	0.02	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.09	45.83	47.77	-0.00	-0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.11	0.09	40.91	43.37	-0.02	-0.01
Southern California	P10	0.16	0.09	60.87	59.61	0.03	0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.11	0.09	21.05	22.43	-0.06	-0.05
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.09	56.52	54.14	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.11	0.09	52.17	48.47	0.00	-0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.11	0.09	47.62	44.47	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.11	0.09	26.09	26.91	-0.05	-0.04
Illinois	B10	0.10	0.09	66.67	59.01	0.03	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.11	0.09	33.33	30.82	-0.04	-0.03
IUPUI	Sum	0.10	0.09	65.22	67.00	0.03	0.03
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.09	45.45	44.00	-0.00	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.05	0.09	52.17	46.62	0.00	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.09	50.00	50.91	0.00	0.00
Temple	A10	0.11	0.09	79.17	77.57	0.06	0.05
Siena	MAAC	0.10	0.09	83.33	81.25	0.07	0.05
Arizona St.	P10	0.05	0.09	66.67	67.74	0.02	0.03
Marshall	CUSA	0.10	0.09	66.67	65.54	0.03	0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.09	79.17	76.61	0.03	0.05
Tulsa	CUSA	0.10	0.09	77.27	70.93	0.06	0.04
Austin Peay	OVC	0.10	0.08	52.17	55.04	0.00	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.10	0.08	20.00	23.58	-0.06	-0.04
Georgia Southern	SC	0.15	0.08	17.39	20.11	-0.10	-0.05
Niagara	MAAC	0.10	0.08	52.00	51.84	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.10	0.08	47.37	52.55	-0.01	0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.10	0.08	52.38	54.80	0.00	0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.13	0.07	16.00	21.62	-0.09	-0.04
Savannah St.	ind	0.06	0.06	30.00	31.19	-0.02	-0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.11	0.06	72.00	73.54	0.05	0.03
Xavier	A10	0.11	0.06	69.57	71.43	0.04	0.03
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.06	56.52	58.43	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.00	0.06	65.22	64.71	0.00	0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.11	0.06	22.73	22.57	-0.06	-0.03
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.11	0.06	52.38	49.31	0.01	-0.00
New Hampshire	AE	0.00	0.06	35.00	38.23	-0.00	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.06	66.67	68.11	0.02	0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.06	18.18	21.04	-0.03	-0.03
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.06	50.00	50.99	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.06	62.50	65.32	0.01	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.11	0.06	28.57	27.72	-0.05	-0.03
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.06	42.86	42.46	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.11	0.06	66.67	64.02	0.04	0.02
West Virginia	BE	0.11	0.06	86.36	82.20	0.08	0.04
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.06	78.26	71.72	0.03	0.02
Radford	BSth	0.00	0.06	52.38	56.23	0.00	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.06	28.57	36.52	-0.02	-0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.06	23.81	27.31	-0.03	-0.03
California	P10	0.05	0.06	65.22	68.42	0.02	0.02
Centenary	Sum	0.05	0.06	27.27	27.20	-0.02	-0.03
Davidson	SC	0.10	0.06	47.62	50.81	-0.00	0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	47.06	50.65	-0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.06	25.00	26.64	-0.03	-0.03
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.10	0.06	42.86	45.31	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.10	0.06	69.57	70.29	0.04	0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.06	39.13	35.38	-0.01	-0.02
Louisville	BE	0.10	0.06	65.22	62.07	0.03	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.06	69.57	69.99	0.02	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.06	73.91	72.52	0.03	0.03
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.06	38.10	38.08	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	23.81	27.28	-0.03	-0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.06	33.33	33.96	-0.03	-0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.10	0.06	70.83	63.39	0.04	0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.10	0.06	66.67	69.41	0.03	0.02
Oregon	P10	0.05	0.06	54.55	48.81	0.00	-0.00
Oregon St.	P10	0.05	0.06	45.45	40.28	-0.00	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.10	0.06	33.33	33.43	-0.03	-0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.10	0.06	45.00	43.95	-0.01	-0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.06	77.27	75.69	0.03	0.03
Troy	SB	0.11	0.06	47.62	50.38	-0.01	0.00
UCLA	P10	0.10	0.06	47.83	43.79	-0.00	-0.01
Washington	P10	0.05	0.06	69.57	68.86	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P10	0.05	0.06	63.64	58.79	0.01	0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.06	30.00	31.79	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.06	55.56	55.85	0.01	0.01
Southern Utah	Sum	0.05	0.06	19.05	20.55	-0.03	-0.03
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.06	66.67	65.62	0.02	0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.00	0.06	60.87	56.49	0.00	0.01
Florida International	SB	0.05	0.06	24.00	23.74	-0.03	-0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.06	77.27	73.36	0.03	0.03
La Salle	A10	0.10	0.06	47.83	46.36	-0.00	-0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.00	0.06	42.86	45.66	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri	B12	0.10	0.06	73.91	70.60	0.05	0.02
Monmouth	NEC	0.10	0.06	41.67	42.69	-0.02	-0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.06	16.67	19.94	-0.03	-0.03
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.06	12.50	15.31	-0.04	-0.04
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.06	39.13	36.57	-0.01	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.00	0.06	54.55	49.24	0.00	-0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.10	0.06	95.83	91.37	0.09	0.05
Akron	MAC	0.10	0.06	69.57	66.00	0.04	0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.06	44.00	45.15	-0.01	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.10	0.06	26.09	31.05	-0.05	-0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.10	0.06	82.61	75.26	0.06	0.03