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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Virginia

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:3.0
Current RPI:3
Expected SOS:2
Current SOS:2
Current Record:26-7
Expected Record:26-7
Current Conf Record:15-6
Expected Conf Record:15-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:2
Expected OOC SOS:18



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-73.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Virginia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Morgan St. (327.0)MEACH86-48W100%0.0
11-16George Washington (68.0)A10A73-68L0%0.0
11-19Bradley (306.0)MVCN57-82W100%0.0
11-20Long Beach St. (79.0)BWN87-52W100%0.0
11-22George Mason (201.0)A10N83-66W100%0.0
11-25Lehigh (168.0)PatH80-54W100%0.0
12-1Ohio St. (74.0)B10A58-64W100%0.0
12-5William & Mary (67.0)CAAH67-52W100%0.0
12-8West Virginia (10.0)B12N70-54W100%0.0
12-19Villanova (4.0)BEH86-75W100%0.0
12-22California (16.0)P12H63-62W100%0.0
12-30Oakland (116.0)HorzH71-58W100%0.0
1-2Notre Dame (31.0)ACCH77-66W100%0.0
1-4Virginia Tech (89.0)ACCA70-68L0%0.0
1-9Georgia Tech (69.0)ACCA68-64L0%0.0
1-12Miami FL (9.0)ACCH66-58W100%0.0
1-17Florida St. (82.0)ACCA69-62L0%0.0
1-19Clemson (131.0)ACCH69-62W100%0.0
1-24Syracuse (72.0)ACCH73-65W100%0.0
1-26Wake Forest (159.0)ACCA71-72W100%0.0
1-30Louisville (17.0)ACCA47-63W100%0.0
2-3Boston College (250.0)ACCH61-47W100%0.0
2-6Pittsburgh (53.0)ACCA50-64W100%0.0
2-9Virginia Tech (89.0)ACCH67-49W100%0.0
2-13Duke (20.0)ACCA63-62L0%0.0
2-15North Carolina St. (123.0)ACCH73-53W100%0.0
2-22Miami FL (9.0)ACCA64-61L0%0.0
2-27North Carolina (5.0)ACCH79-74W100%0.0
3-1Clemson (131.0)ACCA57-64W100%0.0
3-5Louisville (17.0)ACCH68-46W100%0.0
3-10Georgia Tech (69.0)ACCN72-52W100%0.0
3-11Miami FL (9.0)ACCN73-68W100%0.0
3-12North Carolina (5.0)ACCN61-57L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Virginia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Virginia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Virginia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VirginiaACC26.1626.1682.7182.7117.1117.11
Miami FLACC5.115.1182.7682.763.353.35
Virginia TechACC3.723.7258.0658.060.600.60
Georgia TechACC3.703.7058.0658.060.600.60
North CarolinaACC3.623.6284.3884.382.492.49
ClemsonACC3.623.6258.6258.620.620.62
LouisvilleACC3.573.5779.3179.312.092.09
Florida St.ACC2.222.2258.0658.060.360.36
Notre DameACC2.222.2267.7467.740.790.79
PittsburghACC2.222.2266.6766.670.740.74
DukeACC2.202.2068.7568.750.820.82
North Carolina St.ACC2.182.1850.0050.000.000.00
SyracuseACC2.152.1561.2961.290.490.49
Boston CollegeACC2.152.1522.5822.58-1.18-1.18
Wake ForestACC2.122.1236.6736.67-0.57-0.57
George WashingtonA101.561.5668.7568.750.590.59
George MasonA101.561.5635.4835.48-0.45-0.45
VillanovaBE1.561.5687.8887.881.181.18
West VirginiaB121.561.5678.7978.790.900.90
LehighPat1.541.5453.3353.330.100.10
Long Beach St.BW1.541.5458.0658.060.250.25
William & MaryCAA1.541.5464.2964.290.440.44
BradleyMVC1.521.5213.3313.33-1.11-1.11
CaliforniaP121.521.5271.8871.880.660.66
Morgan St.MEAC1.521.5227.5927.59-0.68-0.68
OaklandHorz1.521.5267.7467.740.540.54
Ohio St.B101.521.5262.5062.500.380.38
VCUA100.190.1970.5970.590.080.08
DavidsonA100.190.1961.2961.290.040.04
Saint LouisA100.170.1734.3834.38-0.05-0.05
Michigan St.B100.170.1785.2985.290.120.12
RichmondA100.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
UtahP120.160.1675.7675.760.080.08
NortheasternCAA0.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
RutgersB100.140.1419.3519.35-0.09-0.09
ColgatePat0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.140.1426.6726.67-0.07-0.07
WoffordSC0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.140.1475.7675.760.070.07
Saint Joseph'sA100.140.1479.4179.410.080.08
NorthwesternB100.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
TowsonCAA0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
DelawareCAA0.120.1223.3323.33-0.07-0.07
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
FloridaSEC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
NebraskaB100.120.1247.0647.06-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
HamptonMEAC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
ElonCAA0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
MassachusettsA100.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
IndianaB100.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
ArizonaP120.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
CornellIvy0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
Penn St.B100.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.090.0936.3636.36-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
Iowa St.B120.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
MarylandB100.090.0975.0075.000.050.05
TulaneAmer0.090.0935.2935.29-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
OklahomaB120.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
TexasB120.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
High PointBSth0.070.0764.2964.290.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
AmericanPat0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
DaytonA100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
ArmyPat0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
LafayettePat0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
MinnesotaB100.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
DetroitHorz0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
HawaiiBW0.070.0783.3383.330.050.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.070.0777.7877.780.040.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0718.5218.52-0.04-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
FordhamA100.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
IowaB100.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.070.0781.8281.820.040.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Arizona St.P120.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Oregon St.P120.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.070.0722.2222.22-0.04-0.04
St. John'sBE0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
StanfordP120.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
KansasB120.070.0787.8887.880.050.05
DrexelCAA0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
HowardMEAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0562.8662.860.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
HartfordAE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
YaleIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
Cal PolyBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
UC DavisBW0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
MercerSC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
WisconsinB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
PennIvy0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
LamarSlnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.050.0524.2424.24-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.040.0429.0329.03-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
CreightonBE0.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
MarquetteBE0.040.0460.6160.610.010.01
Texas TechB120.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0257.6957.690.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.023.453.45-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
ToledoMAC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0256.0056.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
MemphisAmer0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
RiceCUSA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0283.8783.870.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
SeattleWAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
USCP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
WyomingMWC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
StetsonASun0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01