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Through games of Feb 4, 2016.


Virginia

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:8.2
Current RPI:8
Expected SOS:11
Current SOS:25
Current Record:18-4
Expected Record:23-7
Current Conf Record:7-3
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:3
Expected OOC SOS:47



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-41.41.05%
25-52.07.54%
24-63.821.31%
23-76.629.26%
22-810.725.94%
21-915.611.61%
20-1021.22.85%
19-1128.90.43%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Virginia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Morgan St. (321.9)MEACH86-48W100%0.0
11-16George Washington (52.6)A10A73-68L0%0.0
11-19Bradley (314.0)MVCN57-82W100%0.0
11-20Long Beach St. (102.0)BWN87-52W100%0.0
11-22George Mason (186.5)A10N83-66W100%0.0
11-25Lehigh (226.7)PatH80-54W100%0.0
12-1Ohio St. (97.8)B10A58-64W100%0.0
12-5William & Mary (42.1)CAAH67-52W100%0.0
12-8West Virginia (10.3)B12N70-54W100%0.0
12-19Villanova (4.4)BEH86-75W100%0.0
12-22California (49.2)P12H63-62W100%0.0
12-30Oakland (117.7)HorzH71-58W100%0.0
1-2Notre Dame (47.9)ACCH77-66W100%0.0
1-4Virginia Tech (138.4)ACCA70-68L0%0.0
1-9Georgia Tech (82.5)ACCA68-64L0%0.0
1-12Miami FL (14.5)ACCH66-58W100%0.0
1-17Florida St. (51.1)ACCA69-62L0%0.0
1-19Clemson (90.8)ACCH69-62W100%0.0
1-24Syracuse (50.0)ACCH73-65W100%0.0
1-26Wake Forest (120.9)ACCA71-72W100%0.0
1-30Louisville (15.9)ACCA47-63W100%0.0
2-3Boston College (230.7)ACCH61-47W100%0.0
2-6Pittsburgh (39.0)ACCA0-052%0.4
2-9Virginia Tech (138.4)ACCH0-092%15.5
2-13Duke (20.4)ACCA0-036%-3.9
2-15North Carolina St. (113.3)ACCH0-087%12.1
2-22Miami FL (14.5)ACCA0-039%-3.0
2-27North Carolina (9.3)ACCH0-058%2.1
3-1Clemson (90.8)ACCA0-063%3.8
3-5Louisville (15.9)ACCH0-054%1.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Virginia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Virginia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Virginia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VirginiaACC26.1426.0586.0578.7118.8514.96
Virginia TechACC2.583.9150.0046.800.00-0.25
Miami FLACC2.583.8885.0078.841.802.24
LouisvilleACC2.533.8585.7181.241.812.41
ClemsonACC2.583.8566.6765.470.861.19
Georgia TechACC2.522.3252.3851.190.120.06
DukeACC0.462.3072.7370.100.210.92
Florida St.ACC2.532.3066.6761.970.840.55
PittsburghACC0.412.2980.0071.090.240.97
SyracuseACC2.692.2769.5764.801.050.67
North Carolina St.ACC0.422.2752.1750.540.020.02
Boston CollegeACC2.532.2733.3327.52-0.84-1.02
Notre DameACC2.632.2771.4365.911.130.72
Wake ForestACC2.582.2747.6243.59-0.12-0.29
North CarolinaACC0.412.2486.3681.950.301.43
George MasonA102.321.7238.1036.50-0.55-0.46
George WashingtonA102.321.7276.1970.731.220.71
West VirginiaB122.321.7285.7181.341.661.08
LehighPat2.321.6931.5837.50-0.85-0.42
Long Beach St.BW2.271.6945.0053.16-0.230.11
VillanovaBE2.321.6990.4888.171.881.29
William & MaryCAA2.271.6973.6872.021.080.75
BradleyMVC2.271.679.0910.11-1.86-1.33
CaliforniaP122.271.6766.6763.880.760.46
Morgan St.MEAC2.271.6722.2230.25-1.26-0.66
OaklandHorz2.271.6769.5769.550.890.65
Ohio St.B102.271.6760.8755.930.490.20
DavidsonA100.150.1957.8955.420.020.02
RichmondA100.260.1952.3853.670.010.01
VCUA100.150.1977.2776.770.080.10
RutgersB100.200.1622.7320.68-0.11-0.10
Michigan St.B100.150.1682.6181.380.100.10
TowsonCAA0.220.1563.6457.320.060.02
NortheasternCAA0.170.1447.8348.71-0.01-0.00
DelawareCAA0.210.1422.7323.65-0.11-0.08
ColgatePat0.210.1442.8643.53-0.03-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.210.1450.0045.740.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.260.1472.7368.660.120.05
DuquesneA100.150.1466.6758.770.050.02
La SalleA100.110.1421.0520.90-0.06-0.08
UtahP120.160.1472.7368.550.070.05
NorthwesternB100.100.1366.6763.490.030.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.150.1381.8277.420.100.07
Saint LouisA100.150.1338.1033.39-0.04-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.170.1261.9059.920.040.02
BucknellPat0.110.1252.3856.750.010.02
ElonCAA0.100.1254.5553.030.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.160.1269.5768.670.060.04
ArizonaP120.160.1178.2677.230.090.06
UCLAP120.110.1156.5253.330.010.01
FloridaSEC0.160.1168.1867.800.060.04
ButlerBE0.110.1168.1866.480.040.04
GeorgiaSEC0.150.1160.0056.080.030.01
IndianaB100.150.1182.6177.360.100.06
MassachusettsA100.100.1142.8639.88-0.01-0.02
NebraskaB100.110.1152.1751.550.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.150.1152.1754.150.010.01
WoffordSC0.100.1138.1043.38-0.02-0.01
DePaulBE0.100.1136.3634.96-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.100.1156.5253.440.010.01
Iowa St.B120.100.1172.7368.840.050.04
KentuckySEC0.100.1172.7369.690.050.04
HamptonMEAC0.120.0960.0061.320.020.02
HofstraCAA0.110.0968.1865.430.040.03
ArmyPat0.110.0954.5555.990.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0927.2732.87-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.120.0957.8961.470.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.110.0930.0028.62-0.05-0.04
UC RiversideBW0.110.0947.8343.93-0.00-0.01
PurdueB100.100.0982.6178.230.070.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.0915.7922.52-0.08-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0926.3236.92-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.110.0885.7181.210.080.05
UC IrvineBW0.110.0872.7371.670.050.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.160.0840.0049.72-0.03-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0826.0930.34-0.02-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.100.0857.1452.310.010.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.0840.9139.23-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.110.0842.8641.75-0.02-0.01
CornellIvy0.100.0847.0643.12-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0845.0044.39-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.110.0881.8278.220.070.05
San Diego St.MWC0.160.0871.4370.810.070.03
CharlotteCUSA0.100.0836.3642.18-0.03-0.01
IowaB100.100.0881.8279.900.070.05
MinnesotaB100.100.0826.0927.82-0.05-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.0875.0073.480.050.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.0847.6257.24-0.000.01
IllinoisB100.150.0847.8344.51-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.0861.9062.050.020.02
TCUB120.100.0845.4537.84-0.01-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0830.0033.57-0.02-0.03
XavierBE0.100.0890.9184.430.080.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.150.0831.8233.76-0.05-0.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0852.1750.250.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.0838.8943.23-0.02-0.01
FordhamA100.150.0857.8954.300.020.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.0816.6720.72-0.06-0.05
Green BayHorz0.100.0857.1457.880.010.01
Kansas St.B120.100.0859.0955.560.020.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.0822.7324.28-0.06-0.04
MarylandB100.090.0886.9681.750.070.05
Northern KentuckyHorz0.150.0830.0032.46-0.06-0.03
OklahomaB120.100.0890.4884.910.080.06
Penn St.B100.150.0847.8343.65-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.100.0878.2671.960.060.04
St. BonaventureA100.100.0870.0069.090.040.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.0834.7841.60-0.03-0.01
St. John'sBE0.100.0827.2724.41-0.05-0.04
StanfordP120.100.0852.6347.730.01-0.00
TexasB120.050.0868.1861.760.020.02
VMISC0.100.0816.6718.98-0.06-0.05
Wright St.Horz0.100.0854.5555.190.010.01
AmericanPat0.060.0631.8232.71-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.110.0652.1754.440.000.01
DrexelCAA0.060.0614.2918.59-0.04-0.04
Holy CrossPat0.060.0640.9139.71-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.110.0631.8234.36-0.04-0.02
NavyPat0.060.0665.2265.220.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0675.0071.270.030.03
HowardMEAC0.120.0640.0042.58-0.02-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.120.0654.5561.940.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0638.1047.48-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.110.0631.8232.90-0.04-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.110.0647.6249.34-0.01-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.110.0680.0082.450.070.04
LafayettePat0.050.0623.8125.23-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.0641.6746.85-0.02-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.0625.0029.52-0.05-0.02
YaleIvy0.060.0670.5972.600.020.03
Cal PolyBW0.050.0631.5836.17-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0636.8432.84-0.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.050.0683.3380.130.040.03
UC DavisBW0.050.0636.8434.21-0.01-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.0628.5734.73-0.05-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.110.0673.9173.090.050.03
ManhattanMAAC0.110.0645.0043.24-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0647.6252.95-0.000.00
WagnerNEC0.110.0661.9063.360.030.02
Colorado St.MWC0.100.0650.0048.760.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0622.7324.84-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0673.9176.040.020.03
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0652.1747.620.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0654.5555.310.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0657.8961.910.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.100.0640.9138.03-0.02-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0626.3227.35-0.02-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.050.0668.7573.150.020.03
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0685.7176.020.040.03
USC UpstateASun0.050.0623.8125.04-0.03-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0615.0015.65-0.04-0.04
UTSACUSA0.050.0614.2913.98-0.04-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.100.0676.1979.640.050.03
ArkansasSEC0.100.0550.0054.850.000.01
LSUSEC0.050.0563.6459.440.010.01
MississippiSEC0.100.0563.6456.050.030.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.0510.5325.36-0.08-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.100.0533.3332.89-0.03-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.0565.0068.740.030.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0526.3233.83-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0521.7424.61-0.03-0.03
BaylorB120.000.0576.1967.340.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0522.7323.38-0.03-0.03
ColoradoP120.100.0572.7366.980.050.02
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0572.7372.460.040.02
CreightonBE0.100.0560.8759.050.020.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.0557.1457.920.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0581.8281.000.030.03
HartfordAE0.050.0526.0926.47-0.02-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.055.267.23-0.04-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0526.0925.57-0.02-0.03
KansasB120.050.0580.9577.010.030.03
LamarSlnd0.050.0533.3332.69-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0565.2256.540.020.01
MercerSC0.100.0571.4370.590.040.02
MichiganB100.000.0572.7367.970.000.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0568.1869.350.020.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0560.0054.580.010.00
PennIvy0.100.0531.2532.68-0.04-0.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0552.3853.610.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.050.0554.5555.960.000.01
SamfordSC0.050.0540.9143.36-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0520.8320.11-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.000.0561.9058.400.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.100.0550.0048.260.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.050.0561.9054.010.010.00
TulaneAmer0.050.0533.3332.42-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.050.0581.8278.320.030.03
UMKCWAC0.050.0530.0034.84-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0535.0035.36-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0580.9583.030.030.04
WashingtonP120.050.0568.1862.170.020.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0547.6247.96-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.090.0560.8755.900.020.01
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0343.4845.72-0.01-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0352.6352.150.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0368.4265.480.020.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0365.0067.520.020.01
CampbellBSth0.060.0330.0030.38-0.02-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0310.0014.87-0.05-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0321.0523.70-0.03-0.02
RiderMAAC0.060.0339.1342.27-0.01-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0331.5833.50-0.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.050.0369.5773.040.020.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0316.6724.28-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0350.0053.080.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0366.6761.680.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0352.3854.240.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0363.6468.200.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0359.0958.090.010.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0325.0029.91-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0361.9058.220.010.00
Boise St.MWC0.050.0366.6766.030.020.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0325.0029.29-0.03-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0357.8957.330.010.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0323.8128.31-0.03-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0347.6247.86-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0378.2680.340.030.02
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0329.4138.46-0.02-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0310.0015.31-0.04-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.050.0344.4446.93-0.01-0.00
OhioMAC0.050.0360.0057.940.010.00
UMBCAE0.050.0320.8325.00-0.03-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0359.0962.730.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0333.3333.55-0.02-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0342.8635.05-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.050.0380.9579.160.030.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0333.3334.18-0.02-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0327.2730.42-0.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0322.7326.19-0.03-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0326.0927.58-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0357.1457.530.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0313.6413.79-0.04-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.050.034.557.91-0.04-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0345.4541.98-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0350.0046.870.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0354.5553.540.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0352.3853.800.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0342.8647.26-0.01-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0336.8437.31-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0338.8942.86-0.01-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0353.3355.190.000.00
IUPUISum0.000.0341.6740.25-0.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0319.0522.38-0.03-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0340.0044.99-0.01-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0375.0072.210.020.01
MaineAE0.050.0336.3635.58-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0347.8350.56-0.000.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0359.0958.570.010.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0336.3630.98-0.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0338.1041.23-0.01-0.00
New HampshireAE0.050.0352.6351.510.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0366.6760.120.020.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0325.0028.19-0.03-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0385.0085.230.040.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0340.0042.55-0.01-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0347.3750.50-0.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0331.8232.32-0.02-0.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0345.0042.81-0.01-0.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0365.2266.710.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0335.0034.92-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0325.0029.75-0.03-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0381.8281.000.030.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0357.1457.580.010.00
UCFAmer0.050.0355.0047.190.01-0.00
USCP120.000.0378.2673.090.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0347.3749.37-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.000.0338.1033.46-0.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0365.0063.360.000.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0340.9140.45-0.01-0.01