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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Virginia

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:4.4
Current RPI:5
Expected SOS:23
Current SOS:36
Current Record:17-1
Expected Record:26-4
Current Conf Record:6-0
Expected Conf Record:15-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:8
Expected OOC SOS:68



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-11.10.99%
28-21.57.69%
27-32.319.91%
26-43.326.58%
25-54.823.62%
24-66.914.22%
23-710.05.25%
22-814.81.40%
21-921.20.25%
20-1026.70.06%
19-1138.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Virginia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10UNC Greensboro (116.2)SCH60-48W100%0.0
11-13Austin Peay (215.2)OVCH93-49W100%0.0
11-17VCU (128.6)A10A67-76W100%0.0
11-19Monmouth (175.3)MAACH73-53W100%0.0
11-23Vanderbilt (143.7)SECN42-68W100%0.0
11-24Rhode Island (14.4)A10N55-70W100%0.0
11-27Wisconsin (130.2)B10H49-37W100%0.0
12-2Lehigh (237.9)PatH75-54W100%0.0
12-5West Virginia (15.9)B12A68-61L0%0.0
12-16Davidson (82.5)A10H80-60W100%0.0
12-19Savannah St. (246.7)MEACH78-47W100%0.0
12-22Hampton (287.5)MEACH82-48W100%0.0
12-30Boston College (97.8)ACCH59-58W100%0.0
1-3Virginia Tech (83.2)ACCA52-78W100%0.0
1-6North Carolina (5.3)ACCH61-49W100%0.0
1-9Syracuse (43.7)ACCH68-61W100%0.0
1-14North Carolina St. (96.3)ACCH68-51W100%0.0
1-18Georgia Tech (145.6)ACCA48-64W100%0.0
1-21Wake Forest (129.1)ACCA0-081%9.7
1-23Clemson (14.2)ACCH0-080%9.2
1-27Duke (3.1)ACCA0-031%-5.5
1-31Louisville (24.8)ACCH0-078%8.6
2-3Syracuse (43.7)ACCA0-069%5.5
2-7Florida St. (40.6)ACCA0-057%1.9
2-10Virginia Tech (83.2)ACCH0-085%11.5
2-13Miami FL (28.3)ACCA0-059%2.6
2-21Georgia Tech (145.6)ACCH0-095%17.9
2-24Pittsburgh (188.7)ACCA0-094%17.7
3-1Louisville (24.8)ACCA0-058%2.1
3-3Notre Dame (57.5)ACCH0-078%8.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Virginia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Virginia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Virginia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VirginiaACC26.3726.0595.7187.0424.1119.29
LouisvilleACC0.073.8877.7871.920.041.70
Virginia TechACC2.853.8872.2261.251.270.87
Georgia TechACC2.853.8555.5645.910.32-0.32
SyracuseACC2.853.8572.2264.421.271.11
PittsburghACC0.372.3540.0031.72-0.07-0.86
Wake ForestACC0.452.3244.4441.91-0.05-0.38
North Carolina St.ACC2.862.2772.2259.701.270.44
North CarolinaACC3.012.2784.2177.552.061.25
Boston CollegeACC2.852.2772.2256.891.270.31
DukeACC0.152.2689.4785.730.121.62
Florida St.ACC0.292.2673.6870.510.140.93
ClemsonACC0.292.2684.2175.030.201.13
Miami FLACC0.072.2676.4769.990.040.90
Notre DameACC0.362.2663.1662.390.100.56
DavidsonA102.851.7862.5063.630.710.48
Rhode IslandA102.781.7588.2484.322.121.20
Savannah St.MEAC2.871.7329.4135.73-1.18-0.49
HamptonMEAC2.851.7221.4343.37-1.63-0.23
VCUA102.781.7263.1661.680.730.40
LehighPat2.851.7241.1846.41-0.50-0.12
UNC GreensboroSC2.851.7273.3370.151.330.69
MonmouthMAAC2.851.7029.4142.29-1.18-0.26
VanderbiltSEC2.851.7038.8936.73-0.63-0.45
Austin PeayOVC2.851.6947.0647.68-0.17-0.08
West VirginiaB122.781.6983.3377.441.850.93
WisconsinB102.781.6752.6347.800.15-0.07
George WashingtonA100.320.2345.0043.49-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.220.2273.6867.950.110.08
South Carolina St.MEAC0.220.2027.7831.67-0.10-0.07
St. BonaventureA100.230.2066.6768.700.080.07
FordhamA100.220.1931.5829.06-0.08-0.08
RichmondA100.220.1931.5834.35-0.08-0.06
TennesseeSEC0.290.1972.2268.920.130.07
Coppin St.MEAC0.220.179.5217.94-0.18-0.11
UNC AshevilleBSth0.390.1750.0055.650.000.02
La SalleA100.220.1740.0042.72-0.04-0.02
George MasonA100.160.1645.0041.35-0.02-0.03
Michigan St.B100.150.1685.0083.180.100.11
Seton HallBE0.300.1675.0067.890.150.06
VMISC0.310.1425.0024.17-0.16-0.07
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.1410.0019.62-0.06-0.09
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.1455.5656.710.010.02
BucknellPat0.290.1461.9068.010.070.05
The CitadelSC0.160.1418.7518.40-0.10-0.09
ColgatePat0.220.1450.0051.040.000.00
WoffordSC0.230.1468.7563.620.090.04
DaytonA100.150.1447.3750.95-0.010.00
SienaMAAC0.080.1430.0031.69-0.03-0.05
Oklahoma St.B120.150.1468.4254.090.060.01
YaleIvy0.300.1441.1847.51-0.05-0.01
Saint LouisA100.230.1447.3746.91-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.230.1463.1666.880.060.05
FloridaSEC0.070.1473.6871.550.030.06
IndianaB100.070.1457.8950.680.010.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.1218.7536.760.00-0.03
RiderMAAC0.190.1265.0065.370.060.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.150.1229.4139.62-0.06-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.160.1138.8935.35-0.03-0.03
NavyPat0.080.1160.0055.160.020.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.1150.0052.440.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.240.1115.7920.92-0.17-0.07
MassachusettsA100.080.1150.0046.780.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.150.1147.3744.27-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.070.1170.0058.100.030.02
PresbyterianBSth0.230.1129.4127.74-0.10-0.05
St. Francis PANEC0.080.1152.9459.250.000.02
BaylorB120.220.1161.1156.090.050.01
Texas TechB120.220.1178.9571.810.130.05
KansasB120.150.1184.2179.740.100.06
NorthwesternB100.070.1155.0050.370.010.00
PurdueB100.070.1190.4888.380.060.08
TexasB120.140.1163.1657.620.040.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.160.0977.7879.160.090.05
Holy CrossPat0.150.0926.3230.43-0.07-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.150.0970.0068.220.060.03
ArmyPat0.080.0961.1160.530.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0950.0053.160.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0922.2228.670.00-0.04
SamfordSC0.000.0927.7832.660.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.090.009.15-0.09-0.07
Appalachian St.SB0.240.0933.3337.22-0.08-0.02
AmericanPat0.150.0926.3228.14-0.07-0.04
FurmanSC0.000.0966.6768.500.000.03
PrincetonIvy0.150.0952.9460.270.010.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.170.0845.0045.02-0.02-0.01
MaristMAAC0.150.0821.0521.99-0.09-0.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0842.1144.97-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0850.0051.650.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0823.5328.70-0.04-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.150.0820.0028.72-0.09-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.150.0868.4263.980.060.02
AlbanyAE0.080.0870.0068.050.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.150.0852.6347.390.01-0.00
LSUSEC0.070.0861.1153.160.020.01
Ohio St.B100.140.0880.9576.520.090.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0821.0544.26-0.04-0.01
BryantNEC0.070.089.5217.08-0.06-0.05
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0866.6755.930.020.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.140.0836.8444.12-0.04-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.150.085.8819.37-0.13-0.05
IowaB100.070.0847.6244.03-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.150.0873.6862.720.070.02
MarylandB100.070.0870.0065.320.030.02
MichiganB100.140.0875.0070.270.070.03
MississippiSEC0.070.0852.6345.860.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.140.0866.6759.780.050.02
Penn St.B100.140.0861.9055.770.030.01
RadfordBSth0.150.0861.1160.790.030.02
TCUB120.000.0873.6865.590.000.03
UCLAP120.140.0865.0062.040.040.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0643.7554.090.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.170.0664.7159.980.050.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0622.2228.590.00-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0629.4133.94-0.03-0.02
LafayettePat0.080.0622.2227.51-0.04-0.03
MercerSC0.090.0644.4454.89-0.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0670.5975.930.000.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0636.8432.79-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0642.1143.50-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0626.3231.52-0.04-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0657.8953.190.010.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.090.0627.7838.13-0.04-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0641.1843.41-0.02-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.170.0622.2227.33-0.09-0.03
XavierBE0.160.0685.7180.080.120.03
DelawareCAA0.090.0647.3743.04-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.090.0652.9457.320.010.01
NevadaMWC0.160.0685.7182.070.110.04
BelmontOVC0.150.0671.4374.650.060.03
ElonCAA0.090.0652.6351.090.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0652.6347.360.00-0.00
USCP120.150.0671.4368.300.060.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.150.0668.4270.810.050.02
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0623.5325.63-0.04-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0666.6765.360.030.02
HawaiiBW0.080.0668.7563.960.030.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0683.3381.350.050.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0683.3384.230.050.04
Wichita St.Amer0.080.0678.9577.360.040.03
AlabamaSEC0.150.0668.4258.990.060.01
ProvidenceBE0.150.0670.0060.460.060.01
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0660.0060.340.020.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0638.8944.140.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.080.0657.8959.470.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0647.3748.17-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0657.1453.220.010.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0631.5830.00-0.03-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0644.4448.91-0.01-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.070.050.003.12-0.07-0.05
DartmouthIvy0.070.0521.4326.21-0.04-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0572.2274.700.030.03
MinnesotaB100.000.0563.6457.640.000.01
North FloridaASun0.070.0531.5835.15-0.03-0.02
RutgersB100.070.0557.8947.140.01-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0561.1151.900.020.00
TempleAmer0.070.0552.6351.730.000.00
TulaneAmer0.070.0563.1657.900.020.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0568.4264.200.030.02
BuffaloMAC0.070.0572.2274.900.030.03
CornellIvy0.070.0533.3333.36-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.070.0521.0525.98-0.04-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0546.6746.98-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.070.0568.4254.090.030.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0570.0071.230.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0561.1147.260.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.140.0568.4260.530.050.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0565.0058.490.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0572.2258.940.030.01
MissouriSEC0.070.0566.6763.200.020.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0525.0028.020.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.070.0544.4446.64-0.01-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.140.0547.0652.51-0.010.00
OaklandHorz0.070.0561.9065.160.020.02
OklahomaB120.070.0577.7867.900.040.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0552.6350.250.000.00
ToledoMAC0.070.0566.6767.690.020.02
WashingtonP120.070.0570.0061.440.030.01
Wright St.Horz0.070.0568.4269.240.030.02
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0370.0068.420.040.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0311.1115.30-0.07-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0310.5316.75-0.06-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0331.5832.720.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.090.0317.6517.23-0.06-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.080.0347.0641.45-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0335.2940.48-0.02-0.01
TroySB0.080.0335.2942.76-0.02-0.00
AkronMAC0.080.0347.0644.91-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0316.6724.29-0.05-0.01
BrownIvy0.080.0350.0045.130.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0389.4785.520.060.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0366.6765.620.030.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0357.8966.250.010.01
HowardMEAC0.080.0310.5327.31-0.06-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0361.1158.750.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0345.0041.340.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.000.0342.1134.320.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0355.0049.070.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0378.9572.990.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0316.6724.910.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0347.0648.440.00-0.00
PennIvy0.080.0364.7162.780.020.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0352.9455.040.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0341.1838.460.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0333.3335.190.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0312.5025.47-0.05-0.01
ArizonaP120.070.0380.0078.980.040.02
Arizona St.P120.070.0378.9576.130.040.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0389.4777.030.000.01
CaliforniaP120.070.0336.8431.12-0.02-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0352.3848.520.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0320.0032.26-0.04-0.01
Green BayHorz0.070.0325.0027.94-0.03-0.01
HartfordAE0.070.0352.6346.880.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.000.0340.0047.860.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0333.3333.80-0.02-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0340.0043.34-0.01-0.00
MaineAE0.070.0310.5314.86-0.06-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0328.5731.270.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0345.0047.05-0.01-0.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0370.5973.140.000.01
NJITASun0.070.0338.8942.60-0.02-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0378.9576.760.040.01
PortlandWCC0.070.0327.7827.30-0.03-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0358.8263.210.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0357.1460.400.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0330.0033.49-0.03-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0373.6872.360.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0327.7840.970.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0347.3742.180.00-0.00
StanfordP120.070.0355.0050.370.010.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0363.1666.000.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0370.5969.610.000.01
UCFAmer0.070.0368.4260.880.030.01
UMass LowellAE0.070.0329.4130.67-0.03-0.01
UMKCWAC0.070.0321.0524.71-0.04-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0366.6766.010.000.01
WinthropBSth0.070.0346.6758.78-0.000.00