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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Virginia

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:15.8
Current RPI:83
Expected SOS:9
Current SOS:213
Current Record:3-0
Expected Record:22-7
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:3-0
Expected OOC Record:10-1
Expected OOC RPI:9
Expected OOC SOS:49



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-11.00.04%
27-21.30.36%
26-31.91.69%
25-43.15.03%
24-54.710.32%
23-67.515.25%
22-711.118.50%
21-815.817.77%
20-922.014.30%
19-1028.88.92%
18-1137.65.07%
17-1247.31.86%
16-1359.40.66%
15-1475.90.14%
14-1582.80.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Virginia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10UNC Greensboro (186.8)SCH60-48W100%0.0
11-13Austin Peay (290.1)OVCH93-49W100%0.0
11-17VCU (92.7)A10A67-76W100%0.0
11-19Monmouth (75.4)MAACH0-093%17.5
11-23Vanderbilt (89.2)SECN0-078%9.2
11-27Wisconsin (36.5)B10H0-069%5.9
12-2Lehigh (189.6)PatH0-097%23.3
12-5West Virginia (33.4)B12A0-036%-4.4
12-16Davidson (46.9)A10H0-081%10.6
12-19Savannah St. (300.1)MEACH0-0100%36.5
12-22Hampton (281.6)MEACH0-099%29.6
12-30Boston College (152.8)ACCH0-091%15.8
1-3Virginia Tech (63.1)ACCA0-056%1.7
1-6North Carolina (9.5)ACCH0-053%0.8
1-9Syracuse (45.7)ACCH0-077%8.8
1-14North Carolina St. (131.2)ACCH0-086%13.0
1-18Georgia Tech (108.5)ACCA0-066%4.8
1-21Wake Forest (166.4)ACCA0-081%10.6
1-23Clemson (64.3)ACCH0-082%11.2
1-27Duke (6.8)ACCA0-030%-6.2
1-31Louisville (28.0)ACCH0-069%5.9
2-3Syracuse (45.7)ACCA0-059%2.8
2-7Florida St. (40.2)ACCA0-051%0.2
2-10Virginia Tech (63.1)ACCH0-074%7.7
2-13Miami FL (24.3)ACCA0-043%-2.1
2-21Georgia Tech (108.5)ACCH0-082%10.8
2-24Pittsburgh (181.6)ACCA0-086%12.9
3-1Louisville (28.0)ACCA0-050%-0.1
3-3Notre Dame (31.0)ACCH0-063%4.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Virginia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Virginia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Virginia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VirginiaACC40.2826.07100.0072.9040.2811.94
Virginia TechACC0.004.0375.0063.780.001.11
LouisvilleACC0.004.02100.0068.800.001.51
Georgia TechACC0.004.000.0059.670.000.77
SyracuseACC0.004.00100.0064.320.001.15
PittsburghACC0.002.4533.3335.270.00-0.72
Wake ForestACC0.002.4125.0035.570.00-0.70
North CarolinaACC0.002.37100.0079.250.001.38
North Carolina St.ACC0.002.36100.0056.140.000.29
Boston CollegeACC0.002.3675.0046.530.00-0.16
Florida St.ACC0.002.36100.0068.860.000.89
ClemsonACC0.002.36100.0056.300.000.30
DukeACC0.002.36100.0084.070.001.61
Notre DameACC0.002.36100.0075.080.001.18
Miami FLACC0.002.35100.0075.150.001.18
Savannah St.MEAC0.001.790.0026.070.00-0.86
HamptonMEAC0.001.790.0049.900.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.001.78100.0072.040.000.79
UNC GreensboroSC16.671.780.0058.66-16.670.31
LehighPat0.001.7866.6753.390.000.12
VCUA1016.671.76100.0068.9616.670.67
MonmouthMAAC0.001.7566.6761.550.000.41
VanderbiltSEC4.171.7566.6750.951.390.03
Austin PeayOVC16.671.750.0030.99-16.67-0.67
West VirginiaB120.001.7566.6771.450.000.75
WisconsinB100.001.7266.6768.210.000.63
KentuckySEC0.000.2375.0071.830.000.10
George WashingtonA100.000.2166.6745.880.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.210.0034.040.00-0.07
FordhamA100.000.1833.3336.170.00-0.05
RichmondA100.000.180.0030.280.00-0.07
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.180.0022.840.00-0.10
TennesseeSEC0.000.17100.0048.350.00-0.01
VMISC0.000.1533.3327.450.00-0.07
BucknellPat0.000.150.0061.460.000.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.1550.0054.450.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.150.0018.400.00-0.09
Michigan St.B100.000.1550.0077.820.000.08
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.150.0064.600.000.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.1566.6748.280.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.1575.0048.930.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.000.150.0039.740.00-0.03
ColgatePat0.000.1550.0050.310.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.1533.3330.460.00-0.06
IndianaB100.000.1433.3341.220.00-0.03
SienaMAAC0.000.140.0037.060.00-0.04
YaleIvy0.000.1425.0054.930.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.130.0042.850.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1233.3335.150.00-0.04
NavyPat0.000.1250.0052.870.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.120.0021.380.00-0.07
BaylorB120.000.12100.0061.110.000.03
Oklahoma St.B120.000.12100.0059.540.000.02
Texas TechB120.000.12100.0062.630.000.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.120.0035.450.00-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.120.0028.770.00-0.05
IllinoisB100.000.12100.0059.240.000.02
Saint LouisA100.000.1266.6753.390.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.120.0016.000.00-0.08
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1233.3359.680.000.02
FloridaSEC0.000.12100.0080.230.000.07
KansasB120.000.12100.0082.910.000.08
Seton HallBE0.000.11100.0067.950.000.04
IonaMAAC0.000.1125.0059.770.000.02
NorthwesternB100.000.1175.0055.040.000.01
PurdueB100.000.11100.0085.360.000.08
Appalachian St.SB0.000.090.0028.720.00-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.000.0950.0073.230.000.04
La SalleA100.000.0975.0051.210.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.090.0047.690.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0933.3357.840.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0950.0068.280.000.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.090.0021.590.00-0.05
DaytonA100.000.0966.6762.150.000.02
AmericanPat0.000.090.0030.350.00-0.04
ArmyPat0.000.0950.0053.620.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0950.0059.440.000.02
SamfordSC0.000.0933.3347.970.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0933.3335.310.00-0.03
DuquesneA100.000.09100.0047.670.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0925.0047.800.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.090.0038.210.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.090.0051.010.000.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0966.6755.210.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.090.0023.830.00-0.05
Texas A&MSEC0.000.09100.0071.010.000.04
TexasB120.000.09100.0063.830.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.09100.0062.930.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.09100.0059.870.000.02
TCUB120.000.09100.0061.150.000.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0950.0035.330.00-0.03
Penn St.B100.000.09100.0060.400.000.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0933.3336.610.00-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.0966.6740.070.00-0.02
BryantNEC0.000.090.0030.230.00-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC2.780.090.0032.77-2.78-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.090.0050.360.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.08100.0072.510.000.04
ConnecticutAmer0.000.08100.0056.360.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.08100.0053.240.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.080.0038.960.00-0.02
IowaB100.000.08100.0058.250.000.01
MarylandB100.000.08100.0071.740.000.04
MississippiSEC0.000.08100.0053.790.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0850.0046.150.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.060.0043.690.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0046.080.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0049.250.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0650.0050.360.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0633.3335.210.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.060.0045.640.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0633.3347.670.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0650.0042.160.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0666.6759.540.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.060.0038.990.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0650.0048.680.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0633.3341.010.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.06100.0048.790.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.000.060.0021.970.00-0.03
MercerSC0.000.0675.0076.250.000.03
Murray St.OVC0.000.0650.0066.530.000.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0633.3329.980.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.060.0036.490.00-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0625.0050.070.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0650.0039.640.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.06100.0078.990.000.04
ElonCAA0.000.0633.3350.840.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.06100.0051.900.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.06100.0064.470.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0633.3360.630.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0650.0059.190.000.01
North FloridaASun2.780.060.0036.69-2.78-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0675.0071.560.000.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.007.670.00-0.05
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0033.700.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.000.06100.0071.700.000.03
USCP120.000.06100.0073.190.000.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.060.0045.040.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0650.0038.730.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.06100.0060.070.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0675.0056.120.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0650.0050.870.000.00
MichiganB100.000.06100.0061.710.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0625.0032.490.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0675.0058.930.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.06100.0054.140.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0633.3346.330.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0666.6754.900.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.06100.0046.080.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.06100.0055.280.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.06100.0051.080.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0650.0051.840.000.00
RutgersB100.000.06100.0046.880.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0633.3348.640.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.06100.0061.010.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0633.3334.680.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0029.290.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0053.280.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0058.070.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.06100.0075.130.000.03
MemphisAmer0.000.0650.0050.670.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.060.0035.760.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0650.0036.640.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0666.6765.630.000.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.06100.0059.250.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.06100.0064.120.000.02
UCLAP120.000.06100.0064.910.000.02
WashingtonP120.000.0650.0046.810.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.060.0041.210.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0366.6763.230.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.03100.0078.910.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0350.0069.320.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.030.0024.440.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0022.610.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0333.3345.540.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0082.350.000.02
DePaulBE0.000.0333.3331.290.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0052.380.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.03100.0053.460.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.030.0017.060.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.03100.0039.920.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.030.0044.130.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.030.0030.910.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0046.410.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.0333.3346.410.00-0.00
Wichita St.Amer0.000.03100.0082.290.000.02
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0083.700.000.02
DrakeMVC0.000.0350.0035.740.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.030.0029.620.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0350.0051.070.000.00
NJITASun0.000.0333.3333.210.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0366.6763.220.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0333.3348.480.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0375.0072.950.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.030.0029.710.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.03100.0048.130.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.030.0036.070.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0366.6767.630.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0044.630.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0054.590.000.00
StanfordP120.000.0375.0049.860.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.030.0026.150.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0350.0060.430.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.030.0055.380.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.03100.0061.320.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0037.120.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.03100.0062.760.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0071.180.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6750.670.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0325.0040.490.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0366.6742.170.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0333.3350.350.000.00
Green BayHorz0.000.030.0044.830.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.0333.3326.430.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.0333.3347.540.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.030.0031.380.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.030.0013.450.00-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0023.170.00-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0366.6768.320.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.03100.0060.010.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0366.6757.890.000.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0350.0060.130.000.01
PennIvy0.000.0333.3349.350.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0375.0064.570.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.030.0037.310.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.030.0034.600.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.03100.0056.600.000.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0350.0066.710.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0333.3350.220.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0350.0042.730.00-0.00