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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Virginia

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:8.0
Current RPI:8
Expected SOS:24
Current SOS:24
Current Record:28-6
Expected Record:28-6
Current Conf Record:19-2
Expected Conf Record:19-2
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:56
Expected OOC SOS:38



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-68.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Virginia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8James Madison (233.0)CAAH61-41W100%0.0
11-12VCU (13.0)A10H56-59L0%0.0
11-16Davidson (126.0)SCN57-70W100%0.0
11-19Navy (321.0)PatH67-42W100%0.0
11-23Liberty (311.0)BSthH75-53W100%0.0
11-26Hampton (204.0)MEACH69-40W100%0.0
11-29SMU (53.0)AmerN76-73W100%0.0
11-30Missouri St. (85.0)MVCN63-83W100%0.0
12-4Wisconsin (6.0)B10H38-48L0%0.0
12-7Green Bay (58.0)HorzA75-72L0%0.0
12-21Northern Iowa (109.0)MVCH57-43W100%0.0
12-23Norfolk St. (227.0)MEACH66-56W100%0.0
12-30Tennessee (42.0)SECA87-52L0%0.0
1-4Florida St. (54.0)ACCA50-62W100%0.0
1-8Wake Forest (113.0)ACCH74-51W100%0.0
1-11North Carolina St. (55.0)ACCA45-76W100%0.0
1-13Duke (9.0)ACCA69-65L0%0.0
1-18Florida St. (54.0)ACCH78-66W100%0.0
1-20North Carolina (25.0)ACCH76-61W100%0.0
1-25Virginia Tech (246.0)ACCH65-45W100%0.0
1-28Notre Dame (136.0)ACCA53-68W100%0.0
2-2Pittsburgh (39.0)ACCA45-48W100%0.0
2-5Boston College (207.0)ACCH77-67W100%0.0
2-8Georgia Tech (157.0)ACCA45-64W100%0.0
2-10Maryland (78.0)ACCH61-53W100%0.0
2-15Clemson (79.0)ACCA58-63W100%0.0
2-18Virginia Tech (246.0)ACCA53-57W100%0.0
2-22Notre Dame (136.0)ACCH70-49W100%0.0
2-26Miami FL (110.0)ACCH65-40W100%0.0
3-1Syracuse (16.0)ACCH75-56W100%0.0
3-9Maryland (78.0)ACCA75-69L0%0.0
3-14Florida St. (54.0)ACCN64-51W100%0.0
3-15Pittsburgh (39.0)ACCN51-48W100%0.0
3-16Duke (9.0)ACCN72-63W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Virginia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Virginia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Virginia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VirginiaACC26.1626.1682.6782.6717.0917.09
Florida St.ACC4.984.9865.5265.521.551.55
MarylandACC3.623.6251.7251.720.120.12
PittsburghACC3.543.5478.1278.121.991.99
DukeACC3.533.5378.1278.121.991.99
Virginia TechACC3.513.5131.0331.03-1.33-1.33
Notre DameACC3.463.4650.0050.000.000.00
Miami FLACC2.182.1853.1253.120.140.14
ClemsonACC2.172.1764.5264.520.630.63
Wake ForestACC2.152.1553.1253.120.130.13
North Carolina St.ACC2.152.1563.6463.640.590.59
North CarolinaACC2.132.1374.1974.191.031.03
Georgia TechACC2.112.1150.0050.000.000.00
Boston CollegeACC2.112.1123.3323.33-1.12-1.12
SyracuseACC2.082.0887.1087.101.541.54
VCUA101.641.6475.7675.760.840.84
HamptonMEAC1.591.5962.0762.070.380.38
Northern IowaMVC1.591.5951.7251.720.050.05
Missouri St.MVC1.571.5763.3363.330.420.42
DavidsonSC1.561.5663.3363.330.420.42
Norfolk St.MEAC1.541.5455.1755.170.160.16
LibertyBSth1.521.5228.5728.57-0.65-0.65
TennesseeSEC1.511.5161.2961.290.340.34
WisconsinB101.501.5078.1278.120.840.84
James MadisonCAA1.501.5036.6736.67-0.40-0.40
Green BayHorz1.491.4976.9276.920.800.80
NavyPat1.471.4728.5728.57-0.63-0.63
SMUAmer1.471.4774.1974.190.710.71
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.200.2017.8617.86-0.13-0.13
UNC GreensboroSC0.190.1937.9337.93-0.04-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.180.1860.6160.610.040.04
WinthropBSth0.170.1756.6756.670.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.170.17100.00100.000.170.17
HowardMEAC0.170.1719.3519.35-0.10-0.10
Savannah St.MEAC0.160.1636.6736.67-0.04-0.04
FloridaSEC0.160.1694.1294.120.140.14
MinnesotaB100.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
MichiganB100.160.1675.7675.760.080.08
Morgan St.MEAC0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VMIBSth0.140.1455.5655.560.020.02
DelawareCAA0.140.1473.5373.530.070.07
FurmanSC0.140.1425.9325.93-0.07-0.07
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.140.1483.8783.870.100.10
Indiana St.MVC0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
Illinois St.MVC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.140.1434.3834.38-0.04-0.04
MassachusettsA100.140.1475.0075.000.070.07
UCFAmer0.140.1437.9337.93-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.130.1375.0075.000.070.07
RichmondA100.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
RadfordBSth0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
ColgatePat0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
The CitadelSC0.120.1213.7913.79-0.09-0.09
ConnecticutAmer0.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
Ohio St.B100.120.1273.5373.530.050.05
Michigan St.B100.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
CharlotteCUSA0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
IndianaB100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
DetroitHorz0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
TulsaCUSA0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
ArmyPat0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
BradleyMVC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
LehighPat0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0941.9441.94-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleAmer0.090.0985.2985.290.070.07
StetsonASun0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0935.7135.71-0.03-0.03
ElonSC0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
IowaB100.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
UICHorz0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
OaklandHorz0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
BryantNEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
DrexelCAA0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
HofstraCAA0.070.0730.3030.30-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
Georgia SouthernSC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
WoffordSC0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
CornellIvy0.070.073.703.70-0.06-0.06
HoustonAmer0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0741.1841.18-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
La SalleA100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
St. John'sBE0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
IllinoisB100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
KansasB120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Penn St.B100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
DuquesneA100.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0586.2186.210.040.04
AmericanPat0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
LafayettePat0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
UMBCAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
SamfordSC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
USCP120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0578.5778.570.030.03
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
BelmontOVC0.040.0471.8871.880.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
DaytonA100.040.0469.7069.700.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.040.0453.1253.120.000.00
AlbanyAE0.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
ArizonaP120.040.0488.2488.240.030.03
Cal PolyBW0.040.0436.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.040.0448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.040.0443.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.040.0472.7372.730.020.02
StanfordP120.040.0463.6463.640.010.01
Texas TechB120.040.0443.7543.75-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.040.0476.4776.470.020.02
VermontAE0.040.0466.6766.670.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
IonaMAAC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Iowa St.B120.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
OhioMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0214.8114.81-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0221.2121.21-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0216.1316.13-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0293.1093.100.020.02
ToledoMAC0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01
WashingtonP120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
BaylorB120.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
LSUSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
TCUB120.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
VillanovaBE0.020.0287.5087.500.020.02
WyomingMWC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Arizona St.P120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01