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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Virginia

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:8.7
Current RPI:24
Expected SOS:9
Current SOS:55
Current Record:8-1
Expected Record:24-6
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:8-1
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:14
Expected OOC SOS:36



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-11.00.05%
28-21.30.79%
27-31.73.47%
26-42.69.55%
25-54.116.45%
24-66.421.88%
23-79.320.42%
22-812.814.55%
21-917.08.01%
20-1021.53.29%
19-1127.61.10%
18-1233.10.34%
17-1347.80.06%
16-1451.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Virginia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11UNC Greensboro (173.7)SCA51-76W100%0.0
11-15St. Francis NY (328.9)NECH72-32W100%0.0
11-20Yale (111.9)IvyH62-38W100%0.0
11-22Grambling St. (338.4)SWACH90-34W100%0.0
11-25Iowa (190.1)B10N41-74W100%0.0
11-26Providence (61.9)BEN52-63W100%0.0
11-30Ohio St. (55.9)B10H63-61W100%0.0
12-3West Virginia (12.4)B12H57-66L0%0.0
12-6East Carolina (173.0)AmerH76-53W100%0.0
12-17Robert Morris (226.1)NECH0-099%30.7
12-21California (61.1)P12A0-078%9.2
12-28Louisville (7.5)ACCA0-047%-1.0
12-31Florida St. (35.9)ACCH0-081%10.5
1-4Pittsburgh (74.1)ACCA0-083%11.5
1-8Wake Forest (52.1)ACCH0-090%15.3
1-14Clemson (72.1)ACCA0-076%8.6
1-18Boston College (233.5)ACCA0-096%21.4
1-21Georgia Tech (192.1)ACCH0-098%23.6
1-24Notre Dame (24.1)ACCA0-053%0.8
1-29Villanova (5.1)BEA0-042%-2.3
2-1Virginia Tech (69.4)ACCH0-088%14.3
2-4Syracuse (69.7)ACCA0-068%5.6
2-6Louisville (7.5)ACCH0-067%5.2
2-12Virginia Tech (69.4)ACCA0-075%8.1
2-15Duke (8.4)ACCH0-061%3.4
2-18North Carolina (5.1)ACCA0-036%-4.4
2-20Miami FL (42.1)ACCH0-079%9.8
2-25North Carolina St. (110.5)ACCA0-086%13.1
2-27North Carolina (5.1)ACCH0-056%1.9
3-4Pittsburgh (74.1)ACCH0-093%17.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Virginia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Virginia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Virginia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VirginiaACC28.0926.0482.0577.7818.0114.47
PittsburghACC0.403.9475.0051.540.200.12
LouisvilleACC0.003.8887.5077.920.002.16
North CarolinaACC0.003.8887.5083.840.002.62
Virginia TechACC0.003.8585.7165.660.001.21
Notre DameACC0.312.32100.0077.970.311.30
North Carolina St.ACC0.352.2975.0052.220.170.10
Wake ForestACC0.002.2977.7856.740.000.31
Boston CollegeACC0.002.2957.1430.630.00-0.89
SyracuseACC0.002.2962.5063.080.000.60
ClemsonACC0.002.2771.4355.620.000.25
DukeACC0.002.2790.0081.430.001.42
Miami FLACC0.002.2677.7868.330.000.83
Florida St.ACC0.002.2488.8969.080.000.85
Georgia TechACC0.002.2457.1437.540.00-0.56
ProvidenceBE6.561.8387.5061.944.920.44
VillanovaBE0.001.78100.0085.640.001.27
St. Francis NYNEC5.861.7714.2926.94-4.19-0.82
Robert MorrisNEC0.001.7230.0046.99-0.00-0.10
Grambling St.SWAC6.141.7228.5732.94-2.63-0.59
IowaB105.561.7250.0039.690.00-0.35
Ohio St.B105.861.7287.5064.084.400.48
YaleIvy5.561.7250.0066.170.000.56
East CarolinaAmer5.901.7077.7851.683.280.06
UNC GreensboroSC5.561.6983.3357.633.700.26
CaliforniaP120.001.6787.5066.230.000.54
West VirginiaB125.561.6783.3382.703.701.09
NebraskaB100.000.1957.1444.830.00-0.02
PurdueB100.000.1977.7877.640.000.10
BryantNEC0.400.1722.2246.51-0.22-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1744.4438.15-0.00-0.04
TempleAmer0.400.1775.0064.820.200.05
GeorgetownBE0.000.1655.5647.600.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.1687.5070.880.000.07
Penn St.B100.000.1666.6746.170.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.310.1675.0054.480.150.01
WisconsinB100.000.1677.7876.550.000.09
IllinoisB100.400.1666.6751.140.130.00
IndianaB100.000.1687.5074.510.000.08
MarquetteBE0.000.1677.7864.250.000.05
MarylandB100.000.1687.5059.030.000.03
PennIvy0.000.1533.3356.66-0.000.02
VMISC0.000.140.0016.56-0.00-0.09
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.1428.5727.38-0.00-0.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.020.140.0020.63-1.02-0.08
Western CarolinaSC0.310.1428.5723.02-0.13-0.08
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.310.1416.6739.99-0.21-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.400.1411.1149.12-0.31-0.00
WagnerNEC0.000.1428.5752.65-0.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.1412.5023.82-0.00-0.07
CreightonBE0.000.13100.0076.540.000.07
DePaulBE0.000.1371.4337.680.00-0.03
St. John'sBE0.000.1344.4436.20-0.00-0.04
BrownIvy0.660.1250.0043.770.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.120.0032.29-0.00-0.04
The CitadelSC0.000.1250.0030.320.00-0.05
WoffordSC0.000.120.0034.69-0.00-0.04
MercerSC0.280.1142.8647.68-0.04-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.1175.0074.590.000.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1150.0066.380.000.04
High PointBSth0.400.1137.5044.87-0.10-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.1162.5052.400.000.01
MaineAE0.000.1114.2923.40-0.00-0.06
MichiganB100.000.1177.7865.840.000.03
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1133.3340.37-0.00-0.02
Iowa St.B120.000.1175.0071.330.000.05
NorthwesternB100.000.1175.0066.090.000.03
RadfordBSth0.000.1128.5734.49-0.00-0.03
RutgersB100.000.1187.5050.250.000.00
BaylorB120.000.11100.0076.070.000.06
ButlerBE0.000.11100.0074.830.000.05
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1142.8644.90-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.1188.8956.710.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.1187.5082.220.000.07
Long Beach St.BW0.000.110.0038.43-0.00-0.02
Michigan St.B100.000.1160.0058.780.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.1188.8966.920.000.04
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1171.4354.010.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.1166.6766.650.000.04
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0942.8643.78-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0920.0060.00-0.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.0928.5730.43-0.00-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.000.090.0020.72-0.00-0.05
HarvardIvy0.000.0933.3349.39-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.0940.0058.88-0.000.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.310.0914.2943.08-0.22-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.400.090.0025.17-0.40-0.04
SamfordSC0.000.0962.5056.520.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC1.000.080.0019.08-1.00-0.05
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC1.000.0820.0022.88-0.60-0.05
StanfordP120.000.0866.6758.600.000.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0820.0038.50-0.00-0.02
ColoradoP120.000.0875.0062.450.000.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.080.0034.54-0.00-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.080.0026.22-0.00-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0871.4365.470.000.03
DavidsonA100.000.0871.4362.990.000.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0877.7872.930.000.04
OklahomaB120.000.0871.4348.030.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0850.0044.700.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0866.6761.690.000.02
ManhattanMAAC0.400.0822.2232.01-0.22-0.03
RichmondA100.000.0850.0048.500.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0833.3352.03-0.000.00
DuquesneA100.000.0840.0039.19-0.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0850.0056.080.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0842.8658.24-0.000.01
KansasB120.000.0888.8977.470.000.04
MarshallCUSA0.310.0862.5053.550.080.01
MemphisAmer0.620.0875.0056.270.310.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0877.7872.210.000.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.310.0837.5050.92-0.080.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0833.3352.49-0.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.0885.7175.800.000.04
William & MaryCAA0.000.0833.3346.06-0.00-0.01
AlbanyAE0.400.0642.8660.66-0.060.01
WashingtonP120.400.0657.1452.140.060.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0013.32-0.00-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0612.5033.31-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0023.90-0.00-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0683.3379.920.000.04
FurmanSC0.000.0642.8657.52-0.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0612.5033.18-0.00-0.02
HartfordAE0.000.0622.2226.44-0.00-0.03
LehighPat0.400.0637.5061.81-0.100.01
VermontAE0.710.0662.5071.400.180.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0657.1472.530.000.03
NavyPat0.710.0633.3338.56-0.24-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.400.0628.5724.39-0.17-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0662.5071.850.000.02
ArizonaP120.000.0677.7870.290.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0655.5637.870.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0657.1451.810.000.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0675.0047.990.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0662.5058.130.000.01
OregonP120.000.0675.0072.800.000.03
Oregon St.P120.000.0625.0023.62-0.00-0.03
UMBCAE0.000.0680.0054.190.000.00
UtahP120.000.0680.0058.220.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.0570.0070.530.000.02
CharlotteCUSA0.280.0562.5050.630.070.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.310.0528.5738.92-0.13-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0555.5642.150.00-0.01
LafayettePat0.350.0542.8635.40-0.05-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.0512.5034.49-0.00-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0557.1450.860.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.05100.0078.180.000.03
UCLAP120.000.05100.0086.650.000.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0583.3377.290.000.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0516.6730.09-0.00-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0542.8655.07-0.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.0512.5030.11-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0550.0050.980.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0550.0045.130.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0562.5055.890.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0533.3351.98-0.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.280.0514.2942.77-0.20-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0542.8650.82-0.000.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0575.0075.180.000.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0516.6738.87-0.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.710.0562.5062.120.180.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0542.8637.05-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.590.0562.5074.160.150.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0562.5066.500.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.310.0566.6770.400.100.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0575.0070.570.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0542.8645.34-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0557.1433.200.00-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0557.1449.420.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.590.0525.0026.46-0.29-0.03
TCUB120.000.05100.0060.950.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0585.7169.920.000.02
TexasB120.000.0550.0038.730.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0587.5061.660.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0542.8653.80-0.000.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0550.0037.700.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0577.7886.650.000.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0537.5038.08-0.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0350.0041.700.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.350.0357.1454.200.050.00
LibertyBSth0.400.0328.5746.79-0.17-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0316.6729.83-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.350.0337.5028.47-0.09-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.400.0357.1459.020.060.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0357.1451.740.000.00
ArmyPat0.350.0342.8650.29-0.050.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0342.8641.13-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0337.5044.42-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0325.0038.98-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0017.16-0.00-0.02
LSUSEC0.000.0371.4347.690.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.000.0383.3371.500.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0057.950.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0360.0069.260.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0325.0040.17-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0342.8650.33-0.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0325.0027.74-0.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0350.0045.660.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0344.4453.29-0.000.00
USCP120.000.03100.0076.400.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0320.0035.46-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0375.0072.930.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0342.8629.20-0.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0366.6753.730.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.280.0357.1448.110.04-0.00
AmericanPat0.000.0312.5028.64-0.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0385.7157.280.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0320.0022.08-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0387.5082.440.000.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0312.5037.11-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0021.30-0.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0362.5054.660.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.280.030.0022.47-0.28-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0362.5070.890.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0342.8643.55-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0337.5047.44-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0357.1464.540.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.310.0325.0030.02-0.15-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0357.1456.540.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0371.4358.830.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.0342.8645.85-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.000.0344.4434.60-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0371.4358.170.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0017.92-0.00-0.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0325.0048.70-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0333.3355.64-0.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0357.1453.860.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0385.7177.000.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0357.1450.790.000.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0316.6738.83-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0320.0017.37-0.00-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0337.5043.19-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0355.5649.660.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0362.5042.780.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6735.90-0.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0350.0071.340.000.01