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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Virginia

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:18.0
Current RPI:18
Expected SOS:4
Current SOS:4
Current Record:22-10
Expected Record:22-10
Current Conf Record:12-8
Expected Conf Record:12-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:20
Expected OOC SOS:33



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-1018.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Virginia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11UNC Greensboro (95.0)SCA51-76W100%0.0
11-15St. Francis NY (348.0)NECH72-32W100%0.0
11-20Yale (128.0)IvyH62-38W100%0.0
11-22Grambling St. (317.0)SWACH90-34W100%0.0
11-25Iowa (81.0)B10N41-74W100%0.0
11-26Providence (56.0)BEN52-63W100%0.0
11-30Ohio St. (90.0)B10H63-61W100%0.0
12-3West Virginia (24.0)B12H57-66L0%0.0
12-6East Carolina (213.0)AmerH76-53W100%0.0
12-17Robert Morris (237.0)NECH79-39W100%0.0
12-21California (53.0)P12A52-56W100%0.0
12-28Louisville (7.0)ACCA53-61W100%0.0
12-31Florida St. (14.0)ACCH58-60L0%0.0
1-4Pittsburgh (74.0)ACCA88-76L0%0.0
1-8Wake Forest (38.0)ACCH79-62W100%0.0
1-14Clemson (69.0)ACCA73-77W100%0.0
1-18Boston College (219.0)ACCA54-71W100%0.0
1-21Georgia Tech (105.0)ACCH62-49W100%0.0
1-24Notre Dame (23.0)ACCA54-71W100%0.0
1-29Villanova (1.0)BEA61-59L0%0.0
2-1Virginia Tech (48.0)ACCH71-48W100%0.0
2-4Syracuse (84.0)ACCA66-62L0%0.0
2-6Louisville (7.0)ACCH71-55W100%0.0
2-12Virginia Tech (48.0)ACCA80-78L0%0.0
2-15Duke (6.0)ACCH55-65L0%0.0
2-18North Carolina (5.0)ACCA65-41L0%0.0
2-20Miami FL (41.0)ACCH48-54L0%0.0
2-25North Carolina St. (141.0)ACCA55-70W100%0.0
2-27North Carolina (5.0)ACCH53-43W100%0.0
3-4Pittsburgh (74.0)ACCH67-42W100%0.0
3-8Pittsburgh (74.0)ACCN75-63W100%0.0
3-9Notre Dame (23.0)ACCN71-58L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Virginia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Virginia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Virginia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VirginiaACC26.1126.1167.5767.579.179.17
PittsburghACC5.275.2750.0050.000.000.00
Notre DameACC3.773.7775.0075.001.891.89
North CarolinaACC3.723.7280.6580.652.282.28
LouisvilleACC3.723.7280.0080.002.232.23
Virginia TechACC3.683.6870.0070.001.471.47
DukeACC2.312.3176.4776.471.221.22
Wake ForestACC2.232.2361.2961.290.500.50
Florida St.ACC2.232.2375.0075.001.121.12
SyracuseACC2.212.2154.8454.840.210.21
Boston CollegeACC2.212.2129.0329.03-0.93-0.93
Miami FLACC2.212.2164.5264.520.640.64
Georgia TechACC2.212.2153.3353.330.150.15
North Carolina St.ACC2.192.1948.3948.39-0.07-0.07
ClemsonACC2.192.1954.8454.840.210.21
ProvidenceBE1.711.7164.5264.520.500.50
VillanovaBE1.681.6890.9190.911.381.38
St. Francis NYNEC1.661.6610.3410.34-1.32-1.32
YaleIvy1.631.6362.9662.960.420.42
IowaB101.631.6358.0658.060.260.26
Robert MorrisNEC1.611.6143.7543.75-0.20-0.20
Ohio St.B101.611.6154.8454.840.160.16
Grambling St.SWAC1.611.6144.8344.83-0.17-0.17
East CarolinaAmer1.591.5946.8846.88-0.10-0.10
UNC GreensboroSC1.591.5973.3373.330.740.74
CaliforniaP121.561.5665.6265.620.490.49
West VirginiaB121.561.5675.7675.760.800.80
PurdueB100.190.1978.1278.120.110.11
BryantNEC0.170.1735.4835.48-0.05-0.05
NebraskaB100.170.1736.6736.67-0.05-0.05
IndianaB100.170.1754.5554.550.020.02
MarylandB100.170.1774.1974.190.080.08
TempleAmer0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Penn St.B100.170.1745.4545.45-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.170.1772.7372.730.080.08
Seton HallBE0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
MarquetteBE0.170.1761.2961.290.040.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.150.1540.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.150.1555.8855.880.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.150.153.333.33-0.14-0.14
WisconsinB100.150.1573.5373.530.070.07
GeorgetownBE0.140.1443.7543.75-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
XavierBE0.140.1461.7661.760.030.03
St. John'sBE0.140.1442.4242.42-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.140.1488.2488.240.110.11
Central ConnecticutNEC0.130.1320.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.130.1367.6567.650.040.04
PennIvy0.130.1346.4346.43-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
WagnerNEC0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
VMISC0.120.1214.2914.29-0.09-0.09
Western CarolinaSC0.120.1223.3323.33-0.07-0.07
RutgersB100.120.1243.7543.75-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.120.1219.3519.35-0.07-0.07
NorthwesternB100.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
DePaulBE0.120.1228.1228.12-0.05-0.05
Iowa St.B120.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
Kansas St.B120.120.1260.6160.610.020.02
HarvardIvy0.110.1161.5461.540.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.110.1178.5778.570.060.06
BrownIvy0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
MichiganB100.100.1068.5768.570.040.04
MinnesotaB100.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
Long Beach St.BW0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
Michigan St.B100.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
BaylorB120.090.0977.4277.420.050.05
ButlerBE0.090.0974.1974.190.050.05
RadfordBSth0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
DuquesneA100.090.0931.2531.25-0.04-0.04
ColoradoP120.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0838.4638.46-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.04-0.04
SamfordSC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
RichmondA100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
DavidsonA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.070.0784.8584.850.050.05
Oregon St.P120.070.0712.9012.90-0.05-0.05
RiceCUSA0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
UtahP120.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
FloridaSEC0.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
ColgatePat0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
TexasB120.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.070.0787.5087.500.050.05
AlbanyAE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
HartfordAE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
LehighPat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
NavyPat0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
LafayettePat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
North FloridaASun0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UMBCAE0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
BucknellPat0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
StetsonASun0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Arizona St.P120.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Fort WayneSum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Texas TechB120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
AuburnSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
LSUSEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0219.2319.23-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
DetroitHorz0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
USCP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Washington St.P120.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
WyomingMWC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
AmericanPat0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
UMKCWAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
MaristMAAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01