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Through games of Nov 24, 2014.


Virginia

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:17.2
Current RPI:19
Expected SOS:17
Current SOS:60
Current Record:4-0
Expected Record:22-7
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:4-0
Expected OOC Record:10-1
Expected OOC RPI:8
Expected OOC SOS:68



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-11.80.04%
27-22.00.37%
26-32.81.63%
25-44.24.61%
24-56.09.47%
23-68.715.95%
22-712.519.79%
21-817.318.62%
20-923.914.66%
19-1032.58.63%
18-1143.04.22%
17-1254.21.34%
16-1366.90.51%
15-1479.00.12%
14-15105.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Virginia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14James Madison (223.4)CAAA51-79W100%0.0
11-16Norfolk St. (233.2)MEACH67-39W100%0.0
11-18South Carolina St. (288.1)MEACH75-55W100%0.0
11-21George Washington (47.9)A10H59-42W100%0.0
11-25Tennessee St. (304.5)OVCH0-099%28.8
11-28La Salle (112.0)A10N0-086%12.9
12-3Maryland (59.5)B10A0-056%1.8
12-6VCU (38.7)A10A0-057%2.2
12-18Cleveland St. (167.3)HorzH0-094%18.7
12-21Harvard (75.7)IvyH0-085%12.5
12-30Davidson (110.6)A10H0-089%14.8
1-3Miami FL (11.7)ACCA0-036%-4.3
1-7North Carolina St. (50.3)ACCH0-078%9.2
1-10Notre Dame (46.4)ACCA0-041%-2.7
1-13Clemson (118.2)ACCH0-085%12.4
1-17Boston College (162.2)ACCA0-080%10.0
1-22Georgia Tech (91.5)ACCH0-086%13.1
1-25Virginia Tech (228.2)ACCA0-089%14.6
1-31Duke (3.0)ACCH0-040%-3.0
2-2North Carolina (15.9)ACCA0-037%-3.8
2-7Louisville (9.3)ACCH0-049%-0.2
2-11North Carolina St. (50.3)ACCA0-057%2.0
2-14Wake Forest (119.6)ACCH0-089%14.4
2-16Pittsburgh (105.2)ACCH0-085%12.6
2-22Florida St. (144.3)ACCH0-090%15.1
2-25Wake Forest (119.6)ACCA0-073%7.3
2-28Virginia Tech (228.2)ACCH0-096%21.7
3-2Syracuse (43.0)ACCA0-048%-0.5
3-7Louisville (9.3)ACCA0-027%-7.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Virginia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Virginia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Virginia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VirginiaACC32.8126.07100.0074.6432.8112.84
LouisvilleACC0.004.02100.0082.710.002.63
Wake ForestACC0.004.0260.0047.330.00-0.21
North Carolina St.ACC0.004.02100.0062.810.001.03
Virginia TechACC0.003.9966.6735.690.00-1.14
North CarolinaACC0.002.41100.0071.100.001.02
Miami FLACC0.002.38100.0079.080.001.38
Boston CollegeACC0.002.3540.0039.17-0.00-0.51
Florida St.ACC0.002.3525.0044.06-0.00-0.28
SyracuseACC0.002.3575.0066.420.000.77
ClemsonACC0.002.3560.0052.980.000.14
DukeACC0.002.35100.0086.350.001.71
Georgia TechACC0.002.35100.0053.320.000.16
PittsburghACC0.002.3566.6752.880.000.14
Notre DameACC0.002.3280.0073.420.001.09
VCUA100.001.9075.0068.450.000.70
DavidsonA100.001.9050.0055.440.000.21
George WashingtonA1012.501.87100.0077.1212.501.02
La SalleA100.001.81100.0055.660.000.21
Cleveland St.Horz0.001.8133.3347.44-0.00-0.09
Norfolk St.MEAC12.501.7850.0049.000.00-0.04
James MadisonCAA12.501.75100.0049.0412.50-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC12.501.750.0035.95-12.50-0.49
HarvardIvy0.001.7550.0069.840.000.70
MarylandB100.001.72100.0067.450.000.60
Tennessee St.OVC0.001.720.0028.42-0.00-0.74
RichmondA100.000.3566.6766.030.000.11
MassachusettsA100.000.2680.0061.930.000.06
DuquesneA100.000.21100.0054.620.000.02
George MasonA100.000.2120.0021.70-0.00-0.12
DaytonA100.000.2175.0072.970.000.09
FordhamA100.000.210.0024.54-0.00-0.11
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.2140.0034.21-0.00-0.06
HamptonMEAC0.000.1820.0044.69-0.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1816.6730.01-0.00-0.07
HofstraCAA0.000.1775.0066.800.000.06
PrincetonIvy0.000.1525.0040.14-0.00-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.150.0041.06-0.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1533.3344.26-0.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.1566.6753.410.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1575.0065.610.000.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.150.0033.20-0.00-0.05
Rhode IslandA100.000.15100.0059.320.000.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1550.0037.880.00-0.04
Saint LouisA100.000.1566.6757.060.000.02
OaklandHorz0.000.150.0029.78-0.00-0.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1540.0053.80-0.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.1480.0043.930.00-0.02
IndianaB100.000.1480.0057.960.000.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1466.6747.180.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.14100.0073.810.000.07
West VirginiaB120.000.14100.0070.420.000.06
MinnesotaB100.000.1466.6762.260.000.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.120.0029.05-0.00-0.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.12100.0060.950.000.03
HowardMEAC0.000.120.0038.25-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.120.0069.16-0.000.05
NortheasternCAA0.000.12100.0075.310.000.06
RutgersB102.080.1266.6735.400.69-0.03
VMISC0.000.1233.3337.04-0.00-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.000.1250.0041.580.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1133.3340.10-0.00-0.02
Michigan St.B100.000.1175.0073.300.000.05
ProvidenceBE0.000.11100.0071.170.000.05
DrexelCAA0.000.1120.0035.62-0.00-0.03
PurdueB100.000.1175.0062.270.000.03
FloridaSEC0.000.1166.6768.660.000.04
PennIvy0.000.100.0024.67-0.00-0.05
CornellIvy0.000.0933.3337.47-0.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0925.0039.30-0.00-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.09100.0050.840.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.09100.0064.010.000.03
BelmontOVC0.000.0975.0071.990.000.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.090.0021.49-0.00-0.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.090.0043.12-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0950.0026.270.00-0.04
Green BayHorz0.000.0950.0068.360.000.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0975.0055.490.000.01
IowaB100.000.0960.0064.030.000.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0950.0065.370.000.03
Northern IowaMVC0.000.09100.0071.240.000.04
IonaMAAC0.000.0975.0073.930.000.04
KentuckySEC0.000.09100.0087.980.000.06
MarshallCUSA0.000.0966.6751.200.000.00
SamfordSC0.000.0940.0039.62-0.00-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0966.6746.440.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0966.6752.810.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.090.0022.70-0.00-0.05
RadfordBSth1.560.0933.3350.07-0.520.00
The CitadelSC0.000.090.0026.64-0.00-0.04
VillanovaBE0.000.09100.0073.380.000.04
ColgatePat1.560.0825.0038.68-0.78-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.08100.0074.590.000.04
CincinnatiAmer0.000.08100.0058.760.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0880.0059.570.000.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0850.0055.640.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0833.3341.47-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0825.0052.91-0.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0880.0072.030.000.04
South FloridaAmer0.000.0866.6751.260.000.00
WoffordSC0.000.0880.0076.960.000.04
BrownIvy0.000.0720.0037.46-0.00-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0766.6765.570.000.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.070.0034.81-0.00-0.02
YaleIvy0.000.0775.0069.180.000.03
Boston UniversityPat2.080.0633.3360.92-0.690.01
HoustonAmer0.000.06100.0063.820.000.02
BryantNEC0.000.0650.0054.140.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0675.0056.870.000.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.060.0066.25-0.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0675.0056.780.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0620.0053.69-0.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0022.66-0.00-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0640.0050.60-0.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0666.6745.370.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.060.0037.06-0.00-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0633.3324.20-0.00-0.03
San FranciscoWCC2.080.06100.0062.842.080.02
NorthwesternB100.000.06100.0041.460.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.060.0028.50-0.00-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.060.0055.84-0.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0666.6753.640.000.00
DetroitHorz0.000.0650.0054.870.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0620.0034.54-0.00-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0666.6757.340.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0640.0038.36-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0625.0035.54-0.00-0.02
CampbellBSth0.000.060.0031.43-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0620.0025.79-0.00-0.03
StetsonASun0.000.060.0033.27-0.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.06100.0047.530.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0625.0042.83-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.060.0031.81-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC2.080.060.0020.03-2.08-0.03
LongwoodBSth1.560.0625.0020.27-0.78-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0625.0052.27-0.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0633.3335.09-0.00-0.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0633.3354.48-0.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.060.0029.07-0.00-0.02
High PointBSth0.000.0675.0055.840.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0065.880.000.02
MichiganB100.000.06100.0070.020.000.02
TempleAmer0.000.0650.0052.920.000.00
WisconsinB100.000.06100.0084.620.000.04
Boise St.MWC0.000.0675.0063.510.000.02
BucknellPat0.000.0620.0035.82-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0640.0043.71-0.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.060.0020.52-0.00-0.03
FIUCUSA0.000.0650.0043.570.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0625.0040.65-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0023.63-0.00-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.060.0029.60-0.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0051.940.000.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0650.0035.290.00-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0633.3349.79-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0633.3343.21-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0036.18-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0350.0050.880.000.00
VermontAE0.000.0333.3358.52-0.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.030.0030.13-0.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0033.26-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.03100.0070.100.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0350.0050.520.000.00
IPFWSum0.000.0366.6760.760.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.030.0043.29-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0350.0035.180.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0350.0045.420.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0333.3351.67-0.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0333.3368.63-0.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0325.0057.73-0.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0032.95-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0333.3343.01-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.000.03100.0057.580.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0350.0032.210.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC2.080.030.0038.56-2.08-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0366.6745.370.00-0.00
WashingtonP122.080.03100.0056.072.080.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.03100.0058.710.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0059.940.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.03100.0036.280.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.03100.0074.040.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0360.0050.930.000.00
OhioMAC0.000.0350.0055.630.000.00
Seton HallBE0.000.03100.0065.090.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0333.3342.50-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.000.030.0038.08-0.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.030.0028.12-0.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0333.3354.64-0.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0333.3333.50-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0360.0057.920.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0350.0032.620.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.030.0031.34-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0366.6757.950.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0340.0059.10-0.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0066.020.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0360.0056.290.000.00
MaineAE0.000.030.0017.71-0.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.000.030.0033.80-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0350.0054.950.000.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0325.0042.95-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.000.030.0041.46-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0360.0056.230.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.03100.0055.770.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0380.0074.980.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0366.6766.090.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0340.0050.01-0.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0360.0041.560.00-0.00
USCP120.000.0340.0028.54-0.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.030.0042.28-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0375.0069.590.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.03100.0066.400.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0333.3346.31-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0375.0068.180.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0022.57-0.00-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0375.0070.270.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0340.0033.57-0.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0350.0038.810.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0333.3323.97-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0375.0040.470.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0350.0032.050.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0047.400.00-0.00
NavyPat0.000.0320.0033.06-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.030.0044.98-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.03100.0043.380.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0333.3330.55-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0039.32-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0375.0069.760.000.01