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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Virginia

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:76.0
Current RPI:76
Expected SOS:118
Current SOS:118
Current Record:21-11
Expected Record:21-11
Current Conf Record:11-8
Expected Conf Record:11-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:154
Expected OOC SOS:304



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1176.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Virginia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9George Mason (162.0)CAAA63-59L0%0.0
11-12Fairfield (173.0)MAACH54-45W100%0.0
11-13Delaware (141.0)CAAH53-59L0%0.0
11-17Seattle (303.0)WACH83-43W100%0.0
11-19Lamar (335.0)SlndH63-44W100%0.0
11-20North Texas (247.0)SBH80-64W100%0.0
11-28Wisconsin (32.0)B10A54-60W100%0.0
12-1Wisconsin Green Bay (160.0)HorzH67-51W100%0.0
12-5Tennessee (59.0)SECH46-38W100%0.0
12-8Mississippi Valley St. (344.0)SWACH67-39W100%0.0
12-19Morgan St. (236.0)MEACH75-57W100%0.0
12-22Old Dominion (318.0)CAAN63-61L0%0.0
12-30Wofford (250.0)SCH74-39W100%0.0
1-6North Carolina (17.0)ACCH61-52W100%0.0
1-9Wake Forest (170.0)ACCA55-52L0%0.0
1-12Clemson (185.0)ACCA59-44L0%0.0
1-19Florida St. (85.0)ACCH56-36W100%0.0
1-24Virginia Tech (177.0)ACCA58-74W100%0.0
1-26Boston College (113.0)ACCH65-51W100%0.0
1-29North Carolina St. (33.0)ACCH58-55W100%0.0
2-3Georgia Tech (149.0)ACCA66-60L0%0.0
2-7Clemson (185.0)ACCH78-41W100%0.0
2-10Maryland (73.0)ACCA69-80W100%0.0
2-12Virginia Tech (177.0)ACCH73-55W100%0.0
2-16North Carolina (17.0)ACCA93-81L0%0.0
2-19Miami FL (4.0)ACCA54-50L0%0.0
2-24Georgia Tech (149.0)ACCH82-54W100%0.0
2-28Duke (1.0)ACCH73-68W100%0.0
3-3Boston College (113.0)ACCA53-52L0%0.0
3-7Florida St. (85.0)ACCA53-51L0%0.0
3-10Maryland (73.0)ACCH61-58W100%0.0
3-15North Carolina St. (33.0)ACCN56-75L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Virginia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Virginia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Virginia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VirginiaACC26.1726.1764.6664.667.677.67
North Carolina St.ACC3.903.9071.8871.881.711.71
MarylandACC3.903.9068.7568.751.461.46
North CarolinaACC3.893.8970.9770.971.631.63
Florida St.ACC3.873.8754.8454.840.370.37
ClemsonACC3.843.8441.3841.38-0.66-0.66
Virginia TechACC3.833.8343.3343.33-0.51-0.51
Boston CollegeACC3.823.8248.3948.39-0.12-0.12
Georgia TechACC3.823.8251.7251.720.130.13
Miami FLACC2.452.4581.2581.251.531.53
Wake ForestACC2.352.3540.0040.00-0.47-0.47
DukeACC2.352.3587.1087.101.741.74
George MasonCAA1.711.7154.8454.840.170.17
Old DominionCAA1.711.7113.7913.79-1.24-1.24
DelawareCAA1.691.6956.2556.250.210.21
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.611.6118.5218.52-1.01-1.01
FairfieldMAAC1.591.5957.5857.580.240.24
LamarSlnd1.591.5910.0010.00-1.27-1.27
Morgan St.MEAC1.591.5954.8454.840.150.15
North TexasSB1.591.5937.9337.93-0.38-0.38
WisconsinB101.591.5969.7069.700.630.63
Wisconsin Green BayHorz1.591.5954.8454.840.150.15
SeattleWAC1.561.5625.0025.00-0.78-0.78
TennesseeSEC1.561.5664.5264.520.450.45
WoffordSC1.561.5640.0040.00-0.31-0.31
NC WilmingtonCAA0.200.2031.0331.03-0.08-0.08
Georgia SouthernSC0.200.2038.7138.71-0.04-0.04
DrexelCAA0.200.2041.9441.94-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.170.1762.5062.500.040.04
James MadisonCAA0.170.1758.8258.820.030.03
NC GreensboroSC0.170.1724.1424.14-0.09-0.09
The CitadelSC0.150.1521.4321.43-0.09-0.09
William & MaryCAA0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.150.1517.2417.24-0.10-0.10
HofstraCAA0.150.1519.3519.35-0.09-0.09
South Carolina St.MEAC0.150.1514.2914.29-0.10-0.10
Penn St.B100.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
FurmanSC0.130.1317.2417.24-0.08-0.08
Georgia St.CAA0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonSC0.120.1272.7372.730.060.06
TowsonCAA0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.120.1220.0020.00-0.07-0.07
AuburnSEC0.120.1228.1228.12-0.05-0.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.110.1129.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Texas St.WAC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Texas San AntonioWAC0.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
RichmondA100.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Florida InternationalSB0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.1014.8114.81-0.07-0.07
South AlabamaSB0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Virginia Military InstBSth0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
IUPUISum0.100.1013.3313.33-0.07-0.07
MercerASun0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
NorthwesternB100.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
MaristMAAC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.03-0.03
CharlotteA100.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Brigham YoungWCC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
East Tennessee St.ASun0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
IowaB100.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.097.147.14-0.08-0.08
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
FloridaSEC0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0958.0658.060.020.02
MassachusettsA100.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Ohio St.B100.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
IndianaB100.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
RiderMAAC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
MichiganB100.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
Texas ArlingtonWAC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
IdahoWAC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
BradleyMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
MississippiSEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
DavidsonSC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
ElonSC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
XavierA100.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
ArizonaP120.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Appalachian St.SC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
FordhamA100.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
StanfordP120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
BaylorB120.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
DetroitHorz0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
ConnecticutBE0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
IonaMAAC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Long IslandNEC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
NebraskaB100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
NC AshevilleBSth0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
PennsylvaniaIvy0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
LafayettePat0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Michigan St.B100.070.0775.0075.000.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
St. Peter'sMAAC0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0628.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
GramblingSWAC0.060.060.000.00-0.06-0.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DenverWAC0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Louisiana TechWAC0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
San Jose St.WAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Utah St.WAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Louisiana St.SEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Middle TennesseeSB0.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
TroySB0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Virginia CommonwealthA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0542.3142.31-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0593.7593.750.040.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0570.3770.370.020.02
Oral RobertsSlnd0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
RiceCUSA0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
St. Mary'sWCC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0585.1985.190.040.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Texas El PasoCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
High PointBSth0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
CreightonMVC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
LehighPat0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
RadfordBSth0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
TempleA100.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
CornellIvy0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
BryantNEC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ButlerA100.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0553.8553.850.000.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
La SalleA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
MaineAE0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
UABCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
MonmouthNEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.050.0576.6776.670.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
CincinnatiBE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Texas ChristianB120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
St. LouisA100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityAE0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
BucknellPat0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.GWC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
HowardMEAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0210.0010.00-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleBE0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
MemphisCUSA0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
MissouriSEC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
NevadaMWC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
OaklandSum0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacNEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
South DakotaSum0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
South FloridaBE0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
PittsburghBE0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
StetsonASun0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
AlbanyAE0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01