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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Virginia

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:39.5
Current RPI:40
Expected SOS:92
Current SOS:116
Current Record:18-4
Expected Record:23-7
Current Conf Record:5-3
Expected Conf Record:10-6
Probability of Auto Bid:10.75%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:13-1
Expected OOC Record:13-1
Expected OOC RPI:51
Expected OOC SOS:260



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-417.21.11%
25-523.79.05%
24-630.625.20%
23-738.732.25%
22-848.422.21%
21-959.48.47%
20-1072.41.54%
19-1187.20.16%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Virginia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13South Carolina St. (337.8)MEACH75-38W100%0.0
11-15Winthrop (269.0)BSthH69-48W100%0.0
11-18Texas Christian (123.7)MWCN55-57L0%0.0
11-19Drexel (79.2)CAAN49-35W100%0.0
11-21Drake (135.2)MVCN52-60W100%0.0
11-25Wisconsin Green Bay (187.0)HorzH68-42W100%0.0
11-29Michigan (25.3)B10H70-58W100%0.0
12-3Longwood (311.5)indH86-53W100%0.0
12-6George Mason (94.6)CAAH68-48W100%0.0
12-18Oregon (86.8)P12A54-67W100%0.0
12-21Seattle (288.1)indA77-83W100%0.0
12-27Maryland Eastern Shore (319.1)MEACH69-42W100%0.0
12-30Towson (304.8)CAAH57-50W100%0.0
1-2Louisiana St. (85.2)SECA52-57W100%0.0
1-7Miami FL (64.4)ACCH52-51W100%0.0
1-12Duke (4.2)ACCA61-58L0%0.0
1-19Georgia Tech (164.1)ACCA38-70W100%0.0
1-22Virginia Tech (93.2)ACCH45-47L0%0.0
1-26Boston College (248.2)ACCH66-49W100%0.0
1-28North Carolina St. (62.9)ACCA60-61W100%0.0
1-31Clemson (148.3)ACCH65-61W100%0.0
2-4Florida St. (21.9)ACCA58-55L0%0.0
2-8Wake Forest (171.6)ACCH0-095%18.1
2-11North Carolina (4.6)ACCA0-022%-8.5
2-14Clemson (148.3)ACCA0-064%3.9
2-18Maryland (112.8)ACCH0-091%14.7
2-21Virginia Tech (93.2)ACCA0-053%0.9
2-25North Carolina (4.6)ACCH0-044%-1.7
3-1Florida St. (21.9)ACCH0-058%2.3
3-4Maryland (112.8)ACCA0-077%8.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Virginia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Virginia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Virginia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VirginiaACC26.1526.1281.2576.4416.3413.82
ClemsonACC2.633.9152.3850.530.130.04
Virginia TechACC2.483.8954.5553.950.230.31
Florida St.ACC2.473.8871.4371.771.061.69
North CarolinaACC0.303.8686.9684.260.222.64
MarylandACC0.313.8559.0953.300.060.25
DukeACC2.532.3585.7182.531.801.53
Georgia TechACC2.632.3040.9143.57-0.48-0.30
Miami FLACC2.472.3068.4262.170.910.56
North Carolina St.ACC2.482.2573.9166.571.190.74
Boston CollegeACC2.572.2431.8227.35-0.94-1.02
Wake ForestACC0.352.2447.8345.00-0.02-0.22
TowsonCAA2.511.804.175.43-2.30-1.61
Longwoodind2.331.8031.5828.92-0.86-0.76
WinthropBSth2.421.7836.3635.89-0.66-0.50
DrexelCAA2.461.7882.6180.801.601.09
George MasonCAA2.411.7579.1774.921.410.87
Seattleind2.271.7325.0034.73-1.14-0.53
South Carolina St.MEAC2.331.7310.5315.48-1.84-1.19
MichiganB102.371.7276.1969.111.240.66
DrakeMVC2.321.7054.5551.880.210.06
Louisiana St.SEC2.321.6961.9059.250.550.31
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.271.6721.0520.70-1.32-0.98
OregonP122.271.6772.7366.761.030.56
Texas ChristianMWC2.271.6755.0047.740.23-0.08
Wisconsin Green BayHorz2.271.6736.8440.90-0.60-0.30
Norfolk St.MEAC0.260.2368.1869.680.100.09
Gardner WebbBSth0.260.2034.7838.77-0.08-0.05
Michigan St.B100.150.1976.1972.910.080.09
NC WilmingtonCAA0.140.1939.1336.10-0.03-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.150.1738.8943.93-0.03-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.110.1740.9139.56-0.02-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.190.1647.8348.56-0.01-0.00
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.140.1680.0078.060.090.09
DelawareCAA0.230.1647.8350.65-0.010.00
James MadisonCAA0.090.1640.0040.18-0.02-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.210.1435.2939.85-0.06-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.170.1450.0048.900.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.140.148.7013.10-0.12-0.10
MississippiSEC0.210.1463.6456.710.060.02
CampbellBSth0.150.1456.0055.650.020.02
NC AshevilleBSth0.100.1468.1867.640.040.05
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1445.4544.02-0.01-0.02
Georgia St.CAA0.240.1466.6769.690.080.05
MassachusettsA100.200.1473.9168.580.100.05
AlabamaSEC0.100.1468.1869.100.040.05
NC GreensboroSC0.210.1434.7833.46-0.06-0.05
Florida InternationalSB0.090.1433.3337.16-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.140.1432.0035.39-0.05-0.04
Old DominionCAA0.180.1460.0058.290.040.02
MonmouthNEC0.090.1328.0028.91-0.04-0.06
Portland St.BSky0.170.1342.8645.80-0.02-0.01
WyomingMWC0.170.1276.1970.730.090.05
HarvardIvy0.170.1290.4887.910.140.09
StanfordP120.160.1269.5768.290.060.04
WashingtonP120.170.1269.5766.540.070.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.160.1219.0522.37-0.10-0.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.160.1252.3857.860.010.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1242.1149.81-0.02-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.160.1247.3742.16-0.01-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.160.1142.8641.13-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.1140.9138.38-0.02-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.150.1169.5765.870.060.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.100.1172.2271.970.050.05
BradleyMVC0.150.1124.0024.86-0.08-0.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1134.7832.06-0.03-0.04
Brigham YoungWCC0.160.1175.0076.000.080.06
WisconsinB100.110.1175.0073.970.050.05
Appalachian St.SC0.060.1135.0039.29-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.100.1152.3846.680.00-0.01
IowaB100.150.1154.1749.440.01-0.00
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.050.1182.6181.440.040.07
AuburnSEC0.100.1156.5248.810.01-0.00
ColoradoP120.050.1166.6762.650.020.03
IllinoisB100.000.1172.7364.430.000.03
NorthwesternB100.150.1161.9055.140.040.01
PrincetonIvy0.150.1147.3752.87-0.010.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.100.1152.3852.860.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.140.1112.5013.44-0.10-0.08
Rhode IslandA100.140.1120.8320.60-0.08-0.06
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1145.4540.70-0.01-0.02
IdahoWAC0.120.1047.6251.08-0.010.00
HamptonMEAC0.110.0936.3638.48-0.03-0.02
Virginia Military InstBSth0.160.0945.0044.15-0.02-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0981.8280.430.040.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.0938.1042.78-0.03-0.01
HowardMEAC0.110.0918.1822.22-0.07-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0925.0037.58-0.03-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0933.3337.25-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.160.0979.1775.980.090.05
Indiana St.MVC0.160.0956.5254.220.020.01
High PointBSth0.100.0931.8232.75-0.04-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.100.0940.9143.66-0.02-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.0955.0060.330.010.02
GeorgiaSEC0.100.0945.4541.20-0.01-0.02
HawaiiWAC0.110.0957.1453.120.020.01
JacksonvilleASun0.100.0917.3922.00-0.07-0.05
New MexicoMWC0.100.0981.8281.030.070.05
Colorado St.MWC0.110.0866.6760.800.040.02
PurdueB100.110.0865.2260.580.030.02
Kansas St.B120.110.0872.7368.280.050.03
ArizonaP120.100.0866.6768.550.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.150.0869.5765.150.060.03
FloridaSEC0.100.0882.6177.630.070.05
Penn St.B100.100.0841.6738.67-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.100.0852.3852.870.000.00
Texas El PasoCUSA0.100.0843.4843.31-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.110.0845.8346.68-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0860.0060.420.010.02
College of CharlestonSC0.100.0858.3359.980.020.02
IndianaB100.150.0875.0075.780.080.04
Ohio St.B100.100.0886.9685.460.080.06
Oregon St.P120.090.0863.6463.160.030.02
TempleA100.050.0877.2775.060.030.04
KentuckySEC0.050.0895.8392.570.050.07
MinnesotaB100.100.0869.5761.310.040.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0825.0023.75-0.03-0.04
ElonSC0.050.0850.0047.590.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.100.0860.0059.060.020.01
SyracuseBE0.100.0895.8392.010.090.07
TexasB120.050.0860.8761.370.010.02
Arkansas St.SB0.130.0737.5038.33-0.03-0.02
Utah St.WAC0.130.0750.0052.930.000.00
Utah ValleyGWC0.130.0754.5557.690.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.120.0640.9144.03-0.02-0.01
Fresno St.WAC0.050.0639.1344.52-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.120.0635.0035.26-0.04-0.02
ButlerHorz0.110.0650.0050.800.000.00
DetroitHorz0.060.0647.8349.03-0.00-0.00
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.060.0633.3338.38-0.02-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.110.0665.2263.610.030.02
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.110.0656.5257.720.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.0641.6740.61-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0650.0051.530.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0630.0030.06-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.060.0619.0521.29-0.04-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.0650.0051.730.000.00
NavyPat0.110.069.5213.19-0.09-0.04
LibertyBSth0.100.0627.2727.21-0.04-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.0635.0040.78-0.03-0.01
Seton HallBE0.060.0665.2263.740.020.02
RiceCUSA0.110.0647.6246.46-0.01-0.00
BrownIvy0.100.0627.2723.80-0.05-0.03
DuquesneA100.100.0659.0956.350.020.01
TulaneCUSA0.110.0661.9058.590.030.01
CreightonMVC0.100.0687.5085.410.070.04
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0662.5062.060.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.100.0654.1757.200.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.100.0662.5061.500.020.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0685.7178.050.040.03
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0682.6180.420.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.100.0640.9142.96-0.02-0.01
GramblingSWAC0.110.0615.0015.73-0.07-0.04
HoustonCUSA0.110.0647.6244.63-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.100.0673.9168.430.050.02
MemphisCUSA0.110.0669.5771.510.040.02
RutgersBE0.110.0650.0046.810.00-0.00
Southern CaliforniaP120.100.0625.0025.13-0.05-0.03
Texas TechB120.050.0631.8225.98-0.02-0.03
Florida AtlanticSB0.100.0636.3639.72-0.03-0.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0661.9067.230.010.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.0617.6527.10-0.07-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0630.0037.30-0.02-0.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0630.4331.43-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0675.0074.610.020.03
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0671.4366.600.020.02
ConnecticutBE0.050.0668.1863.990.020.02
CornellIvy0.000.0636.8441.45-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0647.6248.83-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0679.1780.100.000.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0659.0957.760.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0678.2672.340.030.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0626.0928.60-0.00-0.02
Notre DameBE0.000.0665.2262.650.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.0662.5062.490.020.01
SamfordSC0.000.0633.3335.26-0.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.050.0631.8231.31-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.050.069.5211.44-0.04-0.04
UCLAP120.100.0654.5556.790.010.01
UtahP120.050.0618.1815.01-0.03-0.04
Washington St.P120.050.0650.0048.170.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.050.0535.0038.58-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0545.4544.66-0.00-0.01
BelmontASun0.100.0569.5773.280.040.03
KansasB120.100.0578.2678.390.050.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0571.4373.350.000.03
ManhattanMAAC0.090.0568.0069.070.030.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0550.0058.160.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0556.5253.100.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.070.0345.0041.76-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0331.8233.83-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0356.5253.770.010.00
San Jose St.WAC0.070.0327.2726.95-0.03-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.030.005.37-0.00-0.03
ArmyPat0.060.0340.9141.72-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0317.3919.81-0.04-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0327.2735.02-0.03-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0314.2917.17-0.04-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.038.7012.13-0.05-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.0381.8281.490.000.02
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.060.0334.7835.20-0.02-0.01
NevadaWAC0.060.0380.9576.420.040.02
North DakotaGWC0.000.0333.3341.31-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0361.9063.520.010.01
AmericanPat0.060.0365.2263.790.020.01
BaylorB120.060.0390.9183.850.050.02
George WashingtonA100.060.0334.7832.08-0.02-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.038.7011.67-0.05-0.02
LehighPat0.060.0373.9174.910.030.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.060.0342.8643.45-0.01-0.00
OklahomaB120.060.0359.0954.700.010.00
PittsburghBE0.060.0360.8758.160.010.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0321.0522.46-0.03-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0327.7829.87-0.02-0.01
CharlotteA100.060.0350.0049.450.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0369.5768.900.000.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.000.0338.1037.86-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0360.8759.760.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.050.0319.0524.61-0.03-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.050.0360.8759.050.010.01
West VirginiaBE0.060.0365.2265.170.020.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0317.3924.41-0.03-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.030.004.02-0.05-0.03
Boston UniversityAE0.050.0348.0051.88-0.000.00
BryantNEC0.050.038.3310.86-0.04-0.02
DaytonA100.000.0360.8760.960.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0354.5554.300.000.00
FordhamA100.050.0340.9134.50-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.000.0340.0041.30-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.050.0340.9142.05-0.01-0.00
Loyola MDMAAC0.000.0377.2773.450.000.01
MercerASun0.050.0370.8371.640.020.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0337.5041.54-0.01-0.00
North TexasSB0.050.0350.0050.010.000.00
OaklandSum0.050.0348.0050.21-0.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0356.5250.270.010.00
RichmondA100.000.0350.0048.490.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0337.5038.52-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0344.0045.89-0.01-0.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0345.4545.55-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0347.6247.18-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0321.7422.76-0.03-0.02
St. LouisA100.050.0377.2777.670.030.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0347.0650.75-0.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.050.0366.6768.050.020.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0342.8639.66-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0352.6348.410.00-0.00
Western KentuckySB0.050.0334.7834.48-0.02-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0359.0957.930.000.00
YaleIvy0.000.0372.2263.190.000.01
BucknellPat0.050.0373.9175.000.020.01
DavidsonSC0.050.0376.1976.760.030.01
La SalleA100.050.0370.8368.820.020.01
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.050.0313.6416.35-0.03-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0345.4546.99-0.00-0.00
PennsylvaniaIvy0.050.0354.5556.840.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0343.4840.28-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.050.0360.0062.490.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0334.7837.24-0.01-0.01