live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Montana

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:76.0
Current RPI:76
Expected SOS:251
Current SOS:251
Current Record:24-7
Expected Record:24-7
Current Conf Record:19-2
Expected Conf Record:19-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-0
Current OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:176
Expected OOC SOS:239



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-776.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Montana.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Pittsburgh (217.0)ACCA78-83W100%0.0
11-15Penn St. (77.0)B10A70-57L0%0.0
11-20Oral Roberts (255.0)SumN69-64W100%0.0
11-21UC Santa Barbara (127.0)BWN80-73L0%0.0
11-29Stanford (86.0)P12A70-54L0%0.0
12-3Cal St. Northridge (340.0)BWH86-68W100%0.0
12-9Georgia St. (120.0)SBA71-68L0%0.0
12-17UC Riverside (300.0)BWH77-61W100%0.0
12-19UC Irvine (119.0)BWH86-68W100%0.0
12-22Washington (71.0)P12A66-63L0%0.0
12-28Northern Arizona (310.0)BSkyA69-87W100%0.0
12-30Southern Utah (252.0)BSkyA49-79W100%0.0
1-4North Dakota (221.0)BSkyH109-79W100%0.0
1-6Northern Colorado (110.0)BSkyH89-80W100%0.0
1-11Sacramento St. (309.0)BSkyA66-78W100%0.0
1-13Portland St. (170.0)BSkyA89-92W100%0.0
1-20Montana St. (283.0)BSkyA52-67W100%0.0
1-25Southern Utah (252.0)BSkyH71-47W100%0.0
1-27Northern Arizona (310.0)BSkyH82-64W100%0.0
2-1Northern Colorado (110.0)BSkyA79-88W100%0.0
2-3North Dakota (221.0)BSkyA67-72W100%0.0
2-8Portland St. (170.0)BSkyH80-60W100%0.0
2-10Sacramento St. (309.0)BSkyH71-69W100%0.0
2-15Eastern Washington (122.0)BSkyA74-65L0%0.0
2-17Idaho (133.0)BSkyA79-77L0%0.0
2-24Montana St. (283.0)BSkyH90-63W100%0.0
3-1Weber St. (162.0)BSkyH75-57W100%0.0
3-3Idaho St. (268.0)BSkyH75-64W100%0.0
3-8North Dakota (221.0)BSkyN84-76W100%0.0
3-9Northern Colorado (110.0)BSkyN91-89W100%0.0
3-10Eastern Washington (122.0)BSkyN82-65W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Montana's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Montana's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Montana.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MontanaBSky26.4626.4682.9682.9617.4417.44
Northern ColoradoBSky5.685.6867.8667.862.032.03
North DakotaBSky5.645.6437.0437.04-1.46-1.46
Eastern WashingtonBSky4.354.3556.6756.670.580.58
Montana St.BSky4.224.2239.2939.29-0.90-0.90
Portland St.BSky4.144.1460.7160.710.890.89
Sacramento St.BSky4.094.0917.8617.86-2.63-2.63
Southern UtahBSky4.094.0939.2939.29-0.88-0.88
Northern ArizonaBSky4.084.0814.2914.29-2.92-2.92
Idaho St.BSky2.662.6644.4444.44-0.30-0.30
IdahoBSky2.652.6567.8667.860.950.95
Weber St.BSky2.632.6362.9662.960.680.68
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.931.9314.8114.81-1.36-1.36
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.931.9368.9768.970.730.73
UC IrvineBW1.891.8950.0050.000.000.00
UC RiversideBW1.831.8325.0025.00-0.91-0.91
StanfordP121.771.7753.1253.120.110.11
WashingtonP121.711.7161.2961.290.390.39
Penn St.B101.671.6760.6160.610.350.35
PittsburghACC1.661.6625.8125.81-0.80-0.80
Georgia St.SB1.661.6667.7467.740.590.59
Oral RobertsSum1.641.6429.6329.63-0.67-0.67
UC DavisBW0.480.4866.6766.670.160.16
HawaiiBW0.320.3253.5753.570.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.290.2924.1424.14-0.15-0.15
Cal St. FullertonBW0.290.2962.0762.070.070.07
Long Beach St.BW0.290.2941.9441.94-0.05-0.05
DenverSum0.270.2746.4346.43-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.250.2541.3841.38-0.04-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.240.2416.1316.13-0.17-0.17
South DakotaSum0.240.2473.3373.330.110.11
CaliforniaP120.230.2325.8125.81-0.11-0.11
Nebraska OmahaSum0.220.2224.1424.14-0.11-0.11
UNLVMWC0.210.2160.6160.610.040.04
Arizona St.P120.180.1864.5264.520.050.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.170.1765.5265.520.050.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.160.1680.0080.000.100.10
Utah St.MWC0.160.1648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
Oregon St.P120.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
ColoradoP120.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.140.1434.4834.48-0.04-0.04
SeattleWAC0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
OregonP120.130.1364.7164.710.040.04
WyomingMWC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
NebraskaB100.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
ArizonaP120.130.1379.4179.410.080.08
UtahP120.130.1363.3363.330.030.03
UCLAP120.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Fresno St.MWC0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Boise St.MWC0.110.1173.3373.330.050.05
Central MichiganMAC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
PortlandWCC0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Kansas St.B120.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.110.1120.0020.00-0.06-0.06
BinghamtonAE0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.110.1188.2488.240.080.08
DukeACC0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
IowaB100.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
USCP120.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
Ohio St.B100.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
San Jose St.MWC0.080.0810.3410.34-0.07-0.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Little RockSB0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0884.8584.850.050.05
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
NorthwesternB100.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
Fort WayneSum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
PacificWCC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
KansasB120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
MarylandB100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
PurdueB100.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
TulsaAmer0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
ValparaisoMVC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.039.689.68-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.036.676.67-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
NavyPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0393.9493.940.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0215.6215.62-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
RutgersB100.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00