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Through games of Nov 23, 2014.


Montana

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:189.8
Current RPI:73
Expected SOS:241
Current SOS:68
Current Record:1-2
Expected Record:14-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-5
Current OOC Record:1-2
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:173
Expected OOC SOS:118



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-543.00.03%
21-665.50.06%
20-772.40.38%
19-891.51.35%
18-9110.43.46%
17-10128.57.16%
16-11148.311.94%
15-12168.716.24%
14-13188.718.15%
13-14209.115.79%
12-15229.612.03%
11-16249.97.23%
10-17268.93.74%
9-18288.01.69%
8-19301.40.54%
7-20320.60.13%
6-21329.10.07%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Montana.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Colorado St. (68.3)MWCA83-66L0%0.0
11-18Boise St. (78.5)MWCA72-67L0%0.0
11-23Seattle (264.4)WACA62-66W100%0.0
11-30San Francisco (98.3)WCCA0-018%-11.2
12-3California (44.3)P12A0-08%-17.3
12-7North Dakota St. (208.2)SumH0-067%5.3
12-10Davidson (108.2)A10H0-041%-2.8
12-14Milwaukee (267.5)HorzA0-044%-1.7
12-21South Dakota (260.5)SumH0-069%6.0
1-1Northern Colorado (217.9)BSkyH0-065%4.5
1-3North Dakota (233.3)BSkyH0-070%6.2
1-8Weber St. (191.9)BSkyA0-035%-4.7
1-10Idaho St. (314.4)BSkyA0-065%4.7
1-17Montana St. (314.0)BSkyH0-087%13.8
1-22Northern Arizona (175.9)BSkyH0-058%2.5
1-24Southern Utah (338.8)BSkyH0-091%15.9
1-29Portland St. (212.7)BSkyA0-044%-1.7
1-31Sacramento St. (231.8)BSkyA0-050%-0.0
2-5Eastern Washington (95.4)BSkyH0-042%-2.3
2-7Idaho (244.6)BSkyH0-072%6.8
2-12North Dakota (233.3)BSkyA0-047%-1.0
2-14Northern Colorado (217.9)BSkyA0-041%-2.6
2-19Idaho St. (314.4)BSkyH0-084%11.8
2-21Weber St. (191.9)BSkyH0-058%2.5
2-26Idaho (244.6)BSkyA0-049%-0.4
2-28Eastern Washington (95.4)BSkyA0-022%-9.5
3-7Montana St. (314.0)BSkyA0-071%6.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Montana's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Montana's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Montana.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MontanaBSky31.9426.3853.8554.422.462.33
Montana St.BSky0.004.720.0021.00-0.00-2.74
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.004.6866.6767.550.001.64
IdahoBSky0.004.6150.0047.170.00-0.26
Idaho St.BSky0.004.580.0028.91-0.00-1.93
Weber St.BSky0.004.570.0051.54-0.000.14
North DakotaBSky0.004.550.0043.63-0.00-0.58
Northern ColoradoBSky0.004.540.0053.11-0.000.28
Southern UtahBSky0.002.830.0018.30-0.00-1.80
Sacramento St.BSky0.002.8350.0045.920.00-0.23
Portland St.BSky0.002.83100.0051.020.000.06
Northern ArizonaBSky0.002.8025.0056.52-0.000.37
North Dakota St.Sum0.002.0550.0045.480.00-0.18
South DakotaSum0.002.020.0036.28-0.00-0.55
Boise St.MWC16.672.0266.6761.635.560.47
Colorado St.MWC16.671.99100.0061.6116.670.46
San FranciscoWCC0.001.95100.0060.710.000.42
SeattleWAC16.671.9533.3347.07-5.56-0.11
CaliforniaP120.001.9275.0069.030.000.73
MilwaukeeHorz0.001.880.0032.62-0.00-0.65
DavidsonA100.001.8550.0053.350.000.12
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.5466.6748.230.00-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.4033.3349.87-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.000.33100.0070.560.000.13
Nebraska OmahaSum2.080.3166.6747.490.69-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.2475.0061.320.000.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.2320.0035.47-0.00-0.07
DenverSum0.000.2366.6763.860.000.06
Oral RobertsSum0.000.2133.3348.17-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.2033.3334.41-0.00-0.06
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.2033.3340.10-0.00-0.04
PortlandWCC0.000.20100.0051.410.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.2050.0050.460.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.2060.0056.390.000.03
Washington St.P120.000.1933.3327.62-0.00-0.09
Fresno St.MWC0.000.190.0032.88-0.00-0.07
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1725.0066.60-0.000.06
UC DavisBW0.000.17100.0043.690.00-0.02
IUPUISum0.000.1750.0031.800.00-0.06
San Jose St.MWC0.000.170.0017.40-0.00-0.11
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1740.0042.16-0.00-0.03
ColoradoP120.000.1766.6760.880.000.04
UNLVMWC0.000.1775.0051.200.000.00
WashingtonP122.080.16100.0056.732.080.02
BYUWCC0.000.14100.0067.070.000.05
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.14100.0031.430.00-0.05
IPFWSum0.000.1450.0063.140.000.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1475.0056.830.000.02
PacificWCC0.000.1333.3333.24-0.00-0.05
Loyola MarymountWCC2.080.1333.3326.52-0.69-0.06
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.13100.0072.150.000.06
Air ForceMWC0.000.1350.0045.380.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.13100.0081.220.000.08
NevadaMWC0.000.1333.3347.23-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.12100.0065.190.000.04
UMKCWAC0.000.1125.0044.56-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1133.3348.37-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1040.0038.14-0.00-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.10100.0086.980.000.08
MinnesotaB100.000.1066.6762.360.000.03
San DiegoWCC2.080.1066.6748.260.69-0.00
StetsonASun0.000.100.0031.77-0.00-0.04
WisconsinB102.080.10100.0085.042.080.07
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1050.0064.030.000.03
UtahP120.000.1066.6769.560.000.04
USCP120.000.1040.0028.63-0.00-0.04
StanfordP120.000.0975.0070.150.000.04
Chicago St.WAC0.000.070.0028.27-0.00-0.03
DetroitHorz0.000.0733.3353.24-0.000.00
Green BayHorz0.000.070.0067.33-0.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0720.0034.58-0.00-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0766.6766.540.000.02
LSUSEC0.000.0775.0058.200.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.070.0033.64-0.00-0.02
OklahomaB120.000.0766.6762.380.000.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.070.0033.03-0.00-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0775.0054.620.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0766.6758.100.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0733.3335.65-0.00-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.070.0028.18-0.00-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.070.0019.35-0.00-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.070.0032.23-0.00-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.07100.0044.560.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.07100.0050.740.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0750.0045.730.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0725.0052.16-0.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.070.0028.04-0.00-0.03
UTSACUSA0.000.0750.0037.730.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.070.0063.27-0.000.02
DrakeMVC0.000.070.0024.98-0.00-0.03
DuquesneA100.000.07100.0053.680.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0720.0021.84-0.00-0.04
George WashingtonA100.000.0766.6776.480.000.04
IndianaB100.000.07100.0062.410.000.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0733.3341.27-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.07100.0071.230.000.03
RichmondA100.000.0766.6765.070.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.0750.0069.230.000.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.070.0037.29-0.00-0.02
VCUA100.000.07100.0074.410.000.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0720.0026.97-0.00-0.03
OregonP120.000.07100.0069.430.000.03
TexasB120.000.07100.0081.510.000.04
Cal PolyBW0.000.0650.0035.550.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0088.080.000.05
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0070.780.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.06100.0056.760.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.0475.0070.240.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.04100.0073.710.000.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0466.6740.980.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.04100.0036.140.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0450.0065.830.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0475.0067.590.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.04100.0053.290.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0450.0054.200.000.00
Texas St.SB2.080.0466.6748.940.69-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.040.0056.35-0.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0320.0028.39-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0064.500.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0375.0054.060.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0024.68-0.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0366.6750.120.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.030.0037.72-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0366.6732.670.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0033.67-0.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0333.3367.24-0.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0031.49-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0350.0055.730.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0375.0065.560.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0340.0054.34-0.000.00
DaytonA100.000.0375.0072.870.000.02
FordhamA100.000.030.0023.10-0.00-0.02
Georgia St.SB2.780.030.0058.69-2.780.01
HoustonAmer0.000.03100.0065.000.000.01
La SalleA100.000.03100.0054.720.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0380.0061.870.000.01
MercerSC2.780.0333.3353.66-0.930.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0350.0052.770.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0333.3323.98-0.00-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0071.350.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0061.860.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0058.810.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0038.210.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0366.6757.190.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6753.120.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.03100.0047.030.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0366.6746.380.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0070.060.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0075.160.000.02
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0063.150.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0340.0032.83-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0350.0046.140.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0054.940.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0333.3346.72-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0038.43-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0333.3362.70-0.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.0380.0077.570.000.02
XavierBE0.000.03100.0075.510.000.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.38-0.00-0.01
Oregon St.P120.000.03100.0048.750.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0041.22-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0375.0068.410.000.01