Montana

Conference:	BSky
Expected RPI:	66.0
Current RPI:	66
Expected SOS:	241
Current SOS:	241
Current Record:	23-6
Expected Record:	23-6
Current Conf Record:	21-1
Expected Conf Record:	21-1
Probability of Auto Bid:	100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	19-0
Current OOC Record:	2-5
Expected OOC Record:	2-5
Expected OOC RPI:	147
Expected OOC SOS:	21

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
23-6	66.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Montana.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Colorado St. (18.0)	MWC	A	72-65	L	0%
11-17	Idaho (195.0)	WAC	A	63-66	W	100%
11-24	San Diego (165.0)	WCC	H	67-66	W	100%
11-28	Brigham Young (69.0)	WCC	A	85-60	L	0%
11-30	San Francisco (167.0)	WCC	A	78-68	L	0%
12-15	South Dakota St. (62.0)	Sum	H	67-68	L	0%
12-19	Northern Arizona (255.0)	BSky	A	56-62	W	100%
12-21	Sacramento St. (283.0)	BSky	A	60-61	W	100%
1-3	Eastern Washington (321.0)	BSky	H	81-66	W	100%
1-5	Portland St. (339.0)	BSky	H	62-55	W	100%
1-10	North Dakota (226.0)	BSky	A	62-77	W	100%
1-12	Northern Colorado (257.0)	BSky	A	77-85	W	100%
1-17	Southern Utah (314.0)	BSky	H	73-67	W	100%
1-19	Montana St. (317.0)	BSky	H	76-71	W	100%
1-24	Idaho St. (337.0)	BSky	H	70-51	W	100%
1-26	Weber St. (84.0)	BSky	H	76-74	W	100%
1-31	Portland St. (339.0)	BSky	A	68-81	W	100%
2-2	Eastern Washington (321.0)	BSky	A	46-65	W	100%
2-7	Northern Colorado (257.0)	BSky	H	73-63	W	100%
2-9	North Dakota (226.0)	BSky	H	78-58	W	100%
2-14	Weber St. (84.0)	BSky	A	87-63	L	0%
2-16	Idaho St. (337.0)	BSky	A	54-61	W	100%
2-23	Davidson (61.0)	SC	A	93-87	L	0%
3-2	Montana St. (317.0)	BSky	A	68-71	W	100%
3-4	Southern Utah (314.0)	BSky	A	74-86	W	100%
3-7	Sacramento St. (283.0)	BSky	H	63-52	W	100%
3-9	Northern Arizona (255.0)	BSky	H	63-50	W	100%
3-15	Northern Colorado (257.0)	BSky	H	70-56	W	100%
3-16	Weber St. (84.0)	BSky	H	67-64	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Montana's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Montana's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Montana.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Montana	BSky	26.68	26.68	83.21	83.21	17.72	17.72
Weber St.	BSky	6.45	6.45	85.19	85.19	4.54	4.54
Northern Colorado	BSky	6.39	6.39	42.31	42.31	-0.98	-0.98
North Dakota	BSky	4.81	4.81	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northern Arizona	BSky	4.76	4.76	36.67	36.67	-1.27	-1.27
Montana St.	BSky	4.72	4.72	42.31	42.31	-0.73	-0.73
Southern Utah	BSky	4.72	4.72	33.33	33.33	-1.57	-1.57
Eastern Washington	BSky	4.67	4.67	34.48	34.48	-1.45	-1.45
Idaho St.	BSky	4.67	4.67	18.52	18.52	-2.94	-2.94
Sacramento St.	BSky	4.63	4.63	48.00	48.00	-0.19	-0.19
Portland St.	BSky	4.62	4.62	25.00	25.00	-2.31	-2.31
Brigham Young	WCC	2.00	2.00	63.33	63.33	0.53	0.53
San Diego	WCC	1.93	1.93	45.16	45.16	-0.19	-0.19
Idaho	WAC	1.84	1.84	39.29	39.29	-0.39	-0.39
San Francisco	WCC	1.83	1.83	42.86	42.86	-0.26	-0.26
Colorado St.	MWC	1.81	1.81	73.33	73.33	0.85	0.85
South Dakota St.	Sum	1.78	1.78	70.00	70.00	0.71	0.71
Davidson	SC	1.72	1.72	77.42	77.42	0.95	0.95
Portland	WCC	0.38	0.38	30.00	30.00	-0.15	-0.15
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.32	0.32	31.25	31.25	-0.12	-0.12
UC Davis	BW	0.29	0.29	45.16	45.16	-0.03	-0.03
San Jose St.	WAC	0.27	0.27	28.57	28.57	-0.12	-0.12
Pepperdine	WCC	0.26	0.26	37.93	37.93	-0.06	-0.06
Gonzaga	WCC	0.26	0.26	93.75	93.75	0.22	0.22
St. Mary's	WCC	0.25	0.25	81.25	81.25	0.16	0.16
Utah St.	WAC	0.23	0.23	66.67	66.67	0.08	0.08
Santa Clara	WCC	0.22	0.22	63.33	63.33	0.06	0.06
Oregon	P12	0.18	0.18	76.47	76.47	0.10	0.10
Seattle	WAC	0.18	0.18	24.14	24.14	-0.09	-0.09
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.17	0.17	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.17	0.17	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
UC Riverside	BW	0.16	0.16	14.29	14.29	-0.11	-0.11
Oregon St.	P12	0.15	0.15	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Utah	P12	0.15	0.15	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.15	0.15	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
Denver	WAC	0.15	0.15	70.00	70.00	0.06	0.06
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.15	0.15	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.14	0.14	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Washington St.	P12	0.14	0.14	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Wyoming	MWC	0.14	0.14	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.14	0.14	35.71	35.71	-0.04	-0.04
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.14	0.14	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
New Mexico	MWC	0.14	0.14	85.29	85.29	0.10	0.10
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.14	0.14	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
Air Force	MWC	0.12	0.12	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.12	0.12	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.11	0.11	22.58	22.58	-0.06	-0.06
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.11	0.11	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Hawaii	BW	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.09	0.09	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.09	0.09	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.09	0.09	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Wichita St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.09	0.09	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.09	0.09	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Dayton	A10	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.09	0.09	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
Fresno St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.08	0.08	13.33	13.33	-0.06	-0.06
Colorado	P12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Appalachian St.	SC	0.08	0.08	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Georgia Southern	SC	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Texas Christian	B12	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Texas St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	21.43	21.43	-0.03	-0.03
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.02	0.02
Pacific	BW	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Elon	SC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.82	58.82	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
NC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	85.19	85.19	0.02	0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02