Montana

Conference:	BSky
Expected RPI:	101.6
Current RPI:	104
Expected SOS:	224
Current SOS:	208
Current Record:	14-6
Expected Record:	20-7
Current Conf Record:	9-1
Expected Conf Record:	14-2
Probability of Auto Bid:	53.64%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	15-2
Current OOC Record:	5-5
Expected OOC Record:	6-5
Expected OOC RPI:	120
Expected OOC SOS:	109

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
21-6	84.3	24.91%
20-7	98.5	39.98%
19-8	112.5	25.69%
18-9	127.3	8.00%
17-10	144.4	1.30%
16-11	162.5	0.10%
15-12	188.0	0.01%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Montana.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Colorado St. (33.3)	MWC	A	64-58	L	0%	0.0
11-17	Idaho (169.6)	WAC	H	57-52	W	100%	0.0
11-20	San Diego (210.6)	WCC	A	60-73	W	100%	0.0
11-23	North Dakota (266.8)	GWC	A	88-81	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Long Beach St. (39.1)	BW	H	73-71	W	100%	0.0
12-1	San Francisco (152.1)	WCC	H	62-65	L	0%	0.0
12-4	Oregon St. (114.4)	P12	A	71-46	L	0%	0.0
12-10	Nevada (63.3)	WAC	H	64-70	L	0%	0.0
12-17	Portland (215.5)	WCC	A	65-80	W	100%	0.0
12-22	Utah Valley (222.0)	GWC	H	65-52	W	100%	0.0
12-28	Portland St. (207.8)	BSky	H	75-64	W	100%	0.0
12-30	Eastern Washington (210.5)	BSky	H	79-71	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Idaho St. (259.8)	BSky	A	44-68	W	100%	0.0
1-12	Northern Arizona (328.5)	BSky	A	53-78	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Weber St. (84.1)	BSky	A	80-64	L	0%	0.0
1-19	Northern Colorado (251.5)	BSky	H	76-58	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Sacramento St. (305.2)	BSky	H	85-56	W	100%	0.0
1-26	Eastern Washington (210.5)	BSky	A	60-74	W	100%	0.0
1-29	Portland St. (207.8)	BSky	A	67-69	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Montana St. (261.8)	BSky	A	58-67	W	100%	0.0
2-6	Idaho St. (259.8)	BSky	H	0-0		93%	16.2
2-9	Northern Colorado (251.5)	BSky	A	0-0		72%	6.4
2-11	Sacramento St. (305.2)	BSky	A	0-0		78%	8.3
2-17	Hawaii (184.5)	WAC	H	0-0		78%	8.5
2-23	Northern Arizona (328.5)	BSky	H	0-0		98%	21.9
2-25	Montana St. (261.8)	BSky	H	0-0		93%	16.1
2-28	Weber St. (84.1)	BSky	H	0-0		67%	4.7

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Montana's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Montana's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Montana.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Montana	BSky	26.42	26.47	72.92	74.17	12.11	12.80
Portland St.	BSky	5.71	4.77	47.37	49.32	-0.30	-0.07
Idaho St.	BSky	3.25	4.75	35.00	36.22	-0.98	-1.31
Eastern Washington	BSky	5.67	4.74	45.00	47.42	-0.57	-0.24
Northern Arizona	BSky	3.45	4.70	14.29	17.34	-2.47	-3.07
Sacramento St.	BSky	3.28	4.70	31.58	35.03	-1.21	-1.41
Montana St.	BSky	3.39	4.70	47.37	44.94	-0.18	-0.48
Northern Colorado	BSky	3.27	4.70	31.58	33.01	-1.21	-1.60
Weber St.	BSky	3.28	4.67	78.95	77.69	1.90	2.58
Idaho	WAC	2.91	2.25	50.00	52.97	0.00	0.13
North Dakota	GWC	2.74	2.12	29.41	38.86	-1.13	-0.47
San Francisco	WCC	2.73	2.06	54.55	52.06	0.25	0.08
Hawaii	WAC	0.23	2.05	57.14	54.28	0.03	0.18
Portland	WCC	2.73	2.02	22.73	22.51	-1.49	-1.11
Nevada	WAC	2.67	2.02	80.00	75.55	1.60	1.03
Utah Valley	GWC	2.69	1.99	57.14	59.91	0.38	0.39
San Diego	WCC	2.61	1.98	35.00	35.12	-0.78	-0.59
Oregon St.	P12	2.68	1.95	61.90	61.84	0.64	0.46
Colorado St.	MWC	2.56	1.92	65.00	59.35	0.77	0.36
Long Beach St.	BW	2.56	1.88	75.00	76.06	1.28	0.98
San Jose St.	WAC	0.30	0.45	27.27	26.95	-0.14	-0.21
Seattle	ind	0.52	0.44	23.53	33.28	-0.28	-0.15
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.42	0.41	47.83	47.87	-0.02	-0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.47	0.40	76.19	70.73	0.25	0.17
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.40	0.40	59.09	57.76	0.07	0.06
Brigham Young	WCC	0.41	0.37	75.00	76.00	0.20	0.19
Pepperdine	WCC	0.34	0.37	31.82	33.83	-0.12	-0.12
Utah St.	WAC	0.36	0.37	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.40	0.34	90.91	87.74	0.33	0.26
UC Davis	BW	0.30	0.34	0.00	5.37	-0.30	-0.30
Utah	P12	0.30	0.31	18.18	15.01	-0.19	-0.21
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.24	0.30	69.57	68.90	0.09	0.11
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.24	0.30	42.86	43.45	-0.03	-0.04
Gonzaga	WCC	0.34	0.30	81.82	81.49	0.21	0.19
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.29	0.27	65.00	66.70	0.09	0.09
Washington St.	P12	0.35	0.27	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.01
Pacific	BW	0.17	0.26	35.00	37.47	-0.05	-0.07
New Mexico	MWC	0.25	0.24	81.82	81.03	0.16	0.15
UC Irvine	BW	0.18	0.24	35.00	35.26	-0.05	-0.07
Boise St.	MWC	0.29	0.23	42.86	41.13	-0.04	-0.04
Cal Poly	BW	0.18	0.21	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.24	0.20	30.43	31.43	-0.09	-0.08
Santa Clara	WCC	0.28	0.20	28.57	26.30	-0.12	-0.10
Fresno St.	WAC	0.18	0.20	39.13	44.52	-0.04	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.29	0.20	69.57	64.53	0.11	0.06
Chicago St.	GWC	0.18	0.17	4.76	9.95	-0.17	-0.14
Denver	SB	0.24	0.17	70.83	72.23	0.10	0.08
UC Riverside	BW	0.18	0.17	42.86	39.66	-0.03	-0.04
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.13	0.14	25.00	28.52	-0.06	-0.06
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.13	0.14	33.33	38.38	-0.04	-0.03
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.13	0.14	19.05	24.61	-0.08	-0.07
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.18	0.14	61.90	63.52	0.04	0.04
Oklahoma	B12	0.12	0.14	59.09	54.70	0.02	0.01
California	P12	0.12	0.14	75.00	74.61	0.06	0.07
San Diego St.	MWC	0.18	0.13	85.71	78.05	0.13	0.07
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.17	0.13	55.56	58.01	0.02	0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.12	0.13	82.61	81.44	0.08	0.08
Stanford	P12	0.18	0.13	69.57	68.29	0.07	0.05
Washington	P12	0.17	0.13	69.57	66.54	0.07	0.04
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.12	0.10	34.78	38.42	-0.04	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.12	0.10	62.50	61.50	0.03	0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.11	0.10	54.17	54.75	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.11	0.10	66.67	68.55	0.04	0.04
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.12	0.10	21.05	22.46	-0.07	-0.05
UCLA	P12	0.17	0.10	54.55	56.79	0.02	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.12	0.10	66.67	62.65	0.04	0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.14	0.07	73.91	75.49	0.07	0.04
Western Illinois	Sum	0.14	0.07	52.63	48.41	0.01	-0.00
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.13	0.07	34.78	35.20	-0.04	-0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.07	27.78	29.87	-0.03	-0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.07	73.91	68.43	0.03	0.03
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.07	79.17	75.98	0.04	0.04
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.06	0.07	41.18	42.61	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.07	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.07	45.00	46.13	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	Sum	0.06	0.07	45.45	44.30	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.00	0.07	76.19	75.94	0.00	0.04
Western Carolina	SC	0.06	0.07	34.78	37.24	-0.02	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.13	0.07	24.00	24.86	-0.07	-0.04
Kansas	B12	0.13	0.07	78.26	78.39	0.07	0.04
Longwood	ind	0.06	0.07	30.00	27.84	-0.02	-0.03
Maine	AE	0.12	0.07	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.07	26.32	29.79	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia St.	CAA	0.11	0.07	66.67	69.69	0.04	0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.07	47.37	42.16	-0.00	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.06	0.07	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.12	0.07	20.00	19.96	-0.07	-0.04
South Dakota	Sum	0.11	0.07	26.32	28.83	-0.05	-0.03
Texas Christian	MWC	0.06	0.07	57.14	49.54	0.01	-0.00
Xavier	A10	0.06	0.07	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.03	16.67	23.02	-0.04	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.06	0.03	69.57	65.15	0.02	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.06	0.03	27.27	35.02	-0.03	-0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.06	0.03	15.00	15.73	-0.04	-0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.03	36.36	38.48	-0.02	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.06	0.03	47.62	44.63	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.03	5.26	7.30	-0.05	-0.03
Oakland	Sum	0.06	0.03	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.06	0.03	52.38	52.87	0.00	0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.03	47.06	50.75	-0.00	0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.06	0.03	61.90	58.59	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.00	0.03	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.00	0.03	87.50	85.41	0.00	0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.03	14.29	17.17	-0.04	-0.02
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.03	86.36	83.09	0.04	0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.03	36.36	39.72	-0.01	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.03	40.91	42.05	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.00	0.03	79.17	80.10	0.00	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.03	72.73	68.28	0.03	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.57	0.05	0.03
Louisville	BE	0.06	0.03	78.26	72.66	0.03	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.06	0.03	68.00	69.07	0.02	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.03	54.17	57.20	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	25.00	37.58	-0.03	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	100.00	94.55	0.05	0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.03	86.96	83.16	0.04	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.00	0.03	33.33	37.25	-0.00	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.03	81.82	77.20	0.03	0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.06	0.03	60.87	58.16	0.01	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.03	35.00	40.78	-0.02	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.00	0.03	10.00	14.93	-0.00	-0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.06	0.03	38.10	37.86	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.06	0.03	85.71	82.18	0.04	0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	77.67	0.03	0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.06	0.03	43.48	43.31	-0.01	-0.00
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.06	0.03	57.14	60.75	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.03	31.82	42.13	-0.02	-0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.03	35.00	39.38	-0.02	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.03	41.67	40.61	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.03	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.03	18.18	22.22	-0.04	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.03	30.00	30.06	-0.02	-0.01
Southern California	P12	0.06	0.03	25.00	25.13	-0.03	-0.02
Texas	B12	0.06	0.03	60.87	61.37	0.01	0.01
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.03	4.00	5.26	-0.05	-0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.06	0.03	69.57	65.87	0.02	0.01