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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Montana

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:183.0
Current RPI:183
Expected SOS:253
Current SOS:253
Current Record:15-13
Expected Record:15-13
Current Conf Record:12-9
Expected Conf Record:12-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-7
Current OOC Record:3-4
Expected OOC Record:3-4
Expected OOC RPI:105
Expected OOC SOS:67



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-13183.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Montana.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Minnesota (50.0)B10A84-58L0%0.0
11-14South Dakota St. (138.0)SumA69-77W100%0.0
11-22San Francisco (68.0)WCCH74-75L0%0.0
11-26Washington (104.0)P12A83-79L0%0.0
11-29Hawaii (160.0)BWA72-61L0%0.0
12-11Idaho (238.0)WACH69-58W100%0.0
12-28Idaho (238.0)WACA71-72W100%0.0
1-2Northern Arizona (247.0)BSkyH65-73L0%0.0
1-4Sacramento St. (263.0)BSkyH82-70W100%0.0
1-9Eastern Washington (228.0)BSkyA69-62L0%0.0
1-11Portland St. (252.0)BSkyA81-78L0%0.0
1-16North Dakota (197.0)BSkyH84-71W100%0.0
1-18Northern Colorado (205.0)BSkyH73-84L0%0.0
1-23Idaho St. (287.0)BSkyA54-59W100%0.0
1-25Weber St. (149.0)BSkyA68-63L0%0.0
1-30Southern Utah (346.0)BSkyA61-69W100%0.0
2-3Montana St. (275.0)BSkyA66-70W100%0.0
2-6Portland St. (252.0)BSkyH82-76W100%0.0
2-8Eastern Washington (228.0)BSkyH82-77W100%0.0
2-13Northern Colorado (205.0)BSkyA89-86L0%0.0
2-15North Dakota (197.0)BSkyA74-69L0%0.0
2-20Weber St. (149.0)BSkyH68-57W100%0.0
2-22Idaho St. (287.0)BSkyH62-61W100%0.0
3-1Southern Utah (346.0)BSkyH82-54W100%0.0
3-3Montana St. (275.0)BSkyH53-50W100%0.0
3-6Sacramento St. (263.0)BSkyA55-70W100%0.0
3-8Northern Arizona (247.0)BSkyA67-47L0%0.0
3-13Portland St. (252.0)BSkyN63-70L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Montana's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Montana's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Montana.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MontanaBSky26.6526.6556.5656.563.493.49
Portland St.BSky6.586.5850.0050.000.000.00
North DakotaBSky5.015.0148.2848.28-0.17-0.17
Northern ColoradoBSky4.874.8751.8551.850.180.18
Weber St.BSky4.864.8661.5461.541.121.12
Idaho St.BSky4.854.8536.0036.00-1.36-1.36
Northern ArizonaBSky4.854.8541.3841.38-0.84-0.84
Sacramento St.BSky4.804.8046.1546.15-0.37-0.37
Eastern WashingtonBSky4.784.7844.4444.44-0.53-0.53
Montana St.BSky4.754.7544.4444.44-0.53-0.53
Southern UtahBSky4.744.743.853.85-4.38-4.38
IdahoWAC3.733.7348.3948.39-0.12-0.12
WashingtonP121.911.9151.6151.610.060.06
South Dakota St.Sum1.871.8759.2659.260.350.35
San FranciscoWCC1.851.8562.0762.070.450.45
HawaiiBW1.841.8460.7160.710.390.39
MinnesotaB101.821.8258.0658.060.290.29
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.390.3945.4545.45-0.04-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.360.3638.7138.71-0.08-0.08
PortlandWCC0.330.3348.3948.39-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.310.3127.5927.59-0.14-0.14
UC IrvineBW0.280.2865.6265.620.090.09
UC DavisBW0.270.2724.1424.14-0.14-0.14
New Mexico St.WAC0.250.2573.5373.530.120.12
Utah ValleyWAC0.230.2362.0762.070.050.05
SeattleWAC0.200.2039.2939.29-0.04-0.04
UMKCWAC0.190.1934.4834.48-0.06-0.06
Cal St. FullertonBW0.190.1935.4835.48-0.05-0.05
San DiegoWCC0.180.1846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.180.1859.3859.380.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.170.1746.1546.15-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
UCLAP120.160.1676.4776.470.080.08
BYUWCC0.150.1566.6766.670.050.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
UtahP120.150.1563.3363.330.040.04
Western IllinoisSum0.150.1525.9325.93-0.07-0.07
Loyola MarymountWCC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
WisconsinB100.140.1478.7978.790.080.08
Utah St.MWC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.130.1367.7467.740.040.04
WyomingMWC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.120.1248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.120.1278.5778.570.070.07
CaliforniaP120.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
PacificWCC0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
IPFWSum0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
Arizona St.P120.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.090.0967.8667.860.030.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0931.0331.03-0.04-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0987.1087.100.070.07
Texas TechB120.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
Oregon St.P120.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
ArizonaP120.090.0988.2488.240.070.07
USCP120.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Penn St.B100.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
South DakotaSum0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0670.5970.590.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
LehighPat0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
PepperdineWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
ColoradoP120.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
IndianaB100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
IowaB100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
MichiganB100.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
NorthwesternB100.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
PurdueB100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
BelmontOVC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
VermontAE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
IllinoisB100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
WoffordSC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00