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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Montana

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:144.0
Current RPI:144
Expected SOS:211
Current SOS:211
Current Record:18-12
Expected Record:18-12
Current Conf Record:16-5
Expected Conf Record:16-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-4
Current OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:196
Expected OOC SOS:27



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-12144.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Montana.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Colorado St. (29.0)MWCA83-66L0%0.0
11-18Boise St. (40.0)MWCA72-67L0%0.0
11-23Seattle (280.0)WACA62-66W100%0.0
11-30San Francisco (181.0)WCCA76-57L0%0.0
12-3California (95.0)P12A78-76L0%0.0
12-7North Dakota St. (92.0)SumH69-57W100%0.0
12-10Davidson (35.0)A10H99-110L0%0.0
12-14Milwaukee (206.0)HorzA73-58L0%0.0
12-21South Dakota (213.0)SumH62-67L0%0.0
1-1Northern Colorado (245.0)BSkyH66-48W100%0.0
1-3North Dakota (310.0)BSkyH74-63W100%0.0
1-8Weber St. (263.0)BSkyA68-60L0%0.0
1-10Idaho St. (343.0)BSkyA64-90W100%0.0
1-17Montana St. (325.0)BSkyH63-48W100%0.0
1-22Northern Arizona (166.0)BSkyH64-57W100%0.0
1-24Southern Utah (307.0)BSkyH58-56W100%0.0
1-29Portland St. (225.0)BSkyA54-73W100%0.0
1-31Sacramento St. (141.0)BSkyA70-69L0%0.0
2-5Eastern Washington (74.0)BSkyH69-75L0%0.0
2-7Idaho (267.0)BSkyH70-56W100%0.0
2-12North Dakota (310.0)BSkyA61-65W100%0.0
2-14Northern Colorado (245.0)BSkyA81-83W100%0.0
2-19Idaho St. (343.0)BSkyH88-77W100%0.0
2-21Weber St. (263.0)BSkyH74-63W100%0.0
2-26Idaho (267.0)BSkyA92-87L0%0.0
2-28Eastern Washington (74.0)BSkyA76-77W100%0.0
3-7Montana St. (325.0)BSkyA54-70W100%0.0
3-12Weber St. (263.0)BSkyH76-73W100%0.0
3-13Northern Arizona (166.0)BSkyH61-59W100%0.0
3-14Eastern Washington (74.0)BSkyH65-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Montana's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Montana's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Montana.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MontanaBSky26.5426.5461.1961.195.945.94
Eastern WashingtonBSky6.026.0275.0075.003.013.01
Weber St.BSky5.865.8640.0040.00-1.17-1.17
Montana St.BSky4.354.3522.2222.22-2.41-2.41
IdahoBSky4.334.3338.4638.46-1.00-1.00
Northern ArizonaBSky4.304.3060.0060.000.860.86
Idaho St.BSky4.254.2519.2319.23-2.62-2.62
Northern ColoradoBSky4.224.2250.0050.000.000.00
North DakotaBSky4.174.1723.0823.08-2.24-2.24
Sacramento St.BSky2.762.7660.7160.710.590.59
Portland St.BSky2.672.6750.0050.000.000.00
Southern UtahBSky2.652.6533.3333.33-0.88-0.88
North Dakota St.Sum1.841.8472.4172.410.820.82
South DakotaSum1.811.8146.6746.67-0.12-0.12
Boise St.MWC1.811.8173.3373.330.840.84
Colorado St.MWC1.781.7880.6580.651.091.09
San FranciscoWCC1.781.7840.0040.00-0.36-0.36
SeattleWAC1.781.7850.0050.000.000.00
CaliforniaP121.751.7553.1253.120.110.11
MilwaukeeHorz1.691.6940.7440.74-0.31-0.31
DavidsonA101.671.6775.8675.860.860.86
Utah ValleyWAC0.520.5232.1432.14-0.19-0.19
South Dakota St.Sum0.400.4067.7467.740.140.14
WyomingMWC0.310.3171.8871.880.130.13
Nebraska OmahaSum0.260.2639.2939.29-0.06-0.06
Oral RobertsSum0.260.2653.3353.330.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.230.2356.6756.670.030.03
DenverSum0.220.2240.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Fresno St.MWC0.210.2143.3343.33-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.200.2036.6736.67-0.05-0.05
Northern KentuckyASun0.200.2039.2939.29-0.04-0.04
Washington St.P120.190.1941.9441.94-0.03-0.03
NevadaMWC0.190.1924.1424.14-0.10-0.10
Grand CanyonWAC0.170.1751.7251.720.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.170.1767.7467.740.060.06
PortlandWCC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.170.1723.0823.08-0.09-0.09
PacificWCC0.170.1732.1432.14-0.06-0.06
New MexicoMWC0.170.1748.3948.39-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.160.1651.6151.610.010.01
UC DavisBW0.150.1579.3179.310.090.09
UT ArlingtonSB0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.140.1422.5822.58-0.08-0.08
BYUWCC0.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
IUPUISum0.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
ColoradoP120.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
IPFWSum0.140.1448.1548.15-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.130.130.000.00-0.13-0.13
Loyola MarymountWCC0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
Saint Mary'sWCC0.130.1368.9768.970.050.05
Air ForceMWC0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.130.1375.7675.760.070.07
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
UMKCWAC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.110.1193.9493.940.100.10
UCLAP120.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.1172.4172.410.050.05
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
LSUSEC0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
OklahomaB120.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
MinnesotaB100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
StetsonASun0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0917.2417.24-0.06-0.06
UtahP120.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
VCUA100.080.0874.2974.290.040.04
WisconsinB100.080.0891.1891.180.070.07
UTSACUSA0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
USCP120.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0864.7164.710.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
ArizonaP120.080.0891.1891.180.060.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0662.9662.960.020.02
DetroitHorz0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
Green BayHorz0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0690.9190.910.050.05
OaklandHorz0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.060.06100.00100.000.060.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
La SalleA100.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
RichmondA100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0575.8675.860.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
CampbellBSth0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0327.2727.27-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
FordhamA100.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0390.6290.620.020.02
CreightonBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
WoffordSC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0359.2659.260.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00