live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Montana

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:145.0
Current RPI:145
Expected SOS:259
Current SOS:259
Current Record:18-11
Expected Record:18-11
Current Conf Record:16-5
Expected Conf Record:16-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-3
Current OOC Record:2-6
Expected OOC Record:2-6
Expected OOC RPI:198
Expected OOC SOS:26



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-11145.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Montana.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Boise St. (101.0)MWCH74-72W100%0.0
11-16San Jose St. (301.0)MWCA64-61L0%0.0
11-25North Dakota St. (120.0)SumA73-53L0%0.0
11-29Pepperdine (129.0)WCCA69-63L0%0.0
12-4San Francisco (228.0)WCCH82-50W100%0.0
12-8Gonzaga (46.0)WCCA61-58L0%0.0
12-12Washington (83.0)P12A92-62L0%0.0
12-19Kansas (1.0)B12A88-46L0%0.0
12-31Northern Arizona (333.0)BSkyA84-90W100%0.0
1-2Southern Utah (336.0)BSkyA66-83W100%0.0
1-7Portland St. (282.0)BSkyH79-66W100%0.0
1-9Sacramento St. (273.0)BSkyH77-58W100%0.0
1-14Northern Colorado (304.0)BSkyA66-73W100%0.0
1-16North Dakota (218.0)BSkyA61-65W100%0.0
1-21Idaho (191.0)BSkyH58-63L0%0.0
1-23Eastern Washington (233.0)BSkyH74-69W100%0.0
1-30Montana St. (260.0)BSkyA72-80W100%0.0
2-4Sacramento St. (273.0)BSkyA83-79L0%0.0
2-6Portland St. (282.0)BSkyA80-82W100%0.0
2-11Southern Utah (336.0)BSkyH86-53W100%0.0
2-13Northern Arizona (333.0)BSkyH85-67W100%0.0
2-20Montana St. (260.0)BSkyH87-78W100%0.0
2-25Idaho St. (256.0)BSkyA77-90W100%0.0
2-27Weber St. (108.0)BSkyA60-54L0%0.0
3-3North Dakota (218.0)BSkyH71-46W100%0.0
3-5Northern Colorado (304.0)BSkyH72-78L0%0.0
3-10Sacramento St. (273.0)BSkyN70-53W100%0.0
3-11Idaho (191.0)BSkyN81-72W100%0.0
3-12Weber St. (108.0)BSkyN62-59L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Montana's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Montana's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Montana.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MontanaBSky26.4926.4966.6766.678.838.83
Sacramento St.BSky6.056.0542.3142.31-0.93-0.93
Montana St.BSky4.584.5846.4346.43-0.33-0.33
Weber St.BSky4.554.5572.4172.412.042.04
IdahoBSky4.494.4962.0762.071.081.08
North DakotaBSky4.474.4751.8551.850.170.17
Portland St.BSky4.444.4440.7440.74-0.82-0.82
Northern ColoradoBSky4.384.3825.9325.93-2.11-2.11
Northern ArizonaBSky4.384.3811.5411.54-3.37-3.37
Southern UtahBSky4.354.3515.3815.38-3.01-3.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky2.912.9151.7251.720.100.10
Idaho St.BSky2.852.8550.0050.000.000.00
San Jose St.MWC1.951.9518.5218.52-1.23-1.23
GonzagaWCC1.931.9377.4277.421.061.06
San FranciscoWCC1.891.8950.0050.000.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum1.871.8756.6756.670.250.25
PepperdineWCC1.871.8755.1755.170.190.19
Boise St.MWC1.851.8562.0762.070.450.45
KansasB121.781.7887.5087.501.341.34
WashingtonP121.751.7554.8454.840.170.17
PortlandWCC0.460.4635.4835.48-0.13-0.13
UC DavisBW0.290.2932.1432.14-0.10-0.10
PacificWCC0.290.2923.0823.08-0.16-0.16
Saint Mary'sWCC0.290.2983.8783.870.200.20
Washington St.P120.290.2926.6726.67-0.13-0.13
BYUWCC0.250.2568.7568.750.100.10
Colorado St.MWC0.240.2450.0050.000.000.00
WyomingMWC0.230.2340.0040.00-0.05-0.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.230.2372.4172.410.100.10
Utah St.MWC0.230.2348.2848.28-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.230.2351.6151.610.010.01
NevadaMWC0.210.2156.6756.670.030.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.200.2033.3333.33-0.07-0.07
SeattleWAC0.200.2042.8642.86-0.03-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.200.2027.5927.59-0.09-0.09
Santa ClaraWCC0.200.2033.3333.33-0.07-0.07
ArizonaP120.200.2075.7675.760.100.10
Loyola MarymountWCC0.200.2043.3343.33-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.190.1977.4277.420.110.11
South DakotaSum0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.170.1755.1755.170.020.02
UNLVMWC0.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.150.1571.8871.880.070.07
Cal St. FullertonBW0.150.1528.5728.57-0.06-0.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.150.1528.5728.57-0.06-0.06
UtahP120.150.1575.7675.760.070.07
San Diego St.MWC0.150.1571.8871.880.060.06
IUPUISum0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.140.1451.5251.520.000.00
UCLAP120.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.120.1287.1087.100.090.09
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.120.1218.5218.52-0.07-0.07
ColoradoP120.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
USCP120.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
TexasB120.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.090.0956.0056.000.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.090.0912.9012.90-0.07-0.07
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Murray St.OVC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
IPFWSum0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
OregonP120.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Iowa St.B120.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
TCUB120.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
West VirginiaB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
ButlerBE0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
UTSACUSA0.060.0613.3313.33-0.05-0.05
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0679.3179.310.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
UMBCAE0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
HawaiiBW0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
SyracuseACC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0629.1729.17-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
UC IrvineBW0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
OklahomaB120.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
DavidsonA100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
PennIvy0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00