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Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


Montana

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:145.3
Current RPI:145
Expected SOS:269
Current SOS:265
Current Record:12-8
Expected Record:16-10
Current Conf Record:10-2
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-4
Current OOC Record:2-6
Expected OOC Record:2-6
Expected OOC RPI:197
Expected OOC SOS:28



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-8114.59.23%
17-9132.335.13%
16-10151.137.03%
15-11170.215.75%
14-12190.02.70%
13-13207.90.15%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Montana.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Boise St. (98.3)MWCH74-72W100%0.0
11-16San Jose St. (292.6)MWCA64-61L0%0.0
11-25North Dakota St. (124.2)SumA73-53L0%0.0
11-29Pepperdine (109.4)WCCA69-63L0%0.0
12-4San Francisco (230.8)WCCH82-50W100%0.0
12-8Gonzaga (48.7)WCCA61-58L0%0.0
12-12Washington (65.3)P12A92-62L0%0.0
12-19Kansas (4.1)B12A88-46L0%0.0
12-31Northern Arizona (325.6)BSkyA84-90W100%0.0
1-2Southern Utah (335.8)BSkyA66-83W100%0.0
1-7Portland St. (289.0)BSkyH79-66W100%0.0
1-9Sacramento St. (255.0)BSkyH77-58W100%0.0
1-14Northern Colorado (310.7)BSkyA66-73W100%0.0
1-16North Dakota (219.7)BSkyA61-65W100%0.0
1-21Idaho (222.5)BSkyH58-63L0%0.0
1-23Eastern Washington (201.4)BSkyH74-69W100%0.0
1-30Montana St. (252.0)BSkyA72-80W100%0.0
2-4Sacramento St. (255.0)BSkyA83-79L0%0.0
2-6Portland St. (289.0)BSkyA80-82W100%0.0
2-11Southern Utah (335.8)BSkyH86-53W100%0.0
2-13Northern Arizona (325.6)BSkyH0-096%19.4
2-20Montana St. (252.0)BSkyH0-079%8.9
2-25Idaho St. (266.1)BSkyA0-063%3.7
2-27Weber St. (139.2)BSkyA0-028%-6.2
3-3North Dakota (219.7)BSkyH0-072%6.2
3-5Northern Colorado (310.7)BSkyH0-091%14.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Montana's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Montana's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Montana.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MontanaBSky26.5226.3968.1868.309.649.66
Montana St.BSky3.644.9445.4547.39-0.33-0.26
Northern ArizonaBSky3.184.7410.0012.91-2.54-3.52
Northern ColoradoBSky3.024.7228.5728.15-1.29-2.06
North DakotaBSky3.014.7147.3750.96-0.160.09
Portland St.BSky5.474.6833.3338.80-1.82-1.05
Sacramento St.BSky5.474.6838.8944.82-1.22-0.49
Southern UtahBSky5.464.6815.7916.11-3.73-3.17
IdahoBSky3.453.0254.5553.740.310.23
Idaho St.BSky0.853.0247.6248.46-0.04-0.09
Eastern WashingtonBSky3.453.0157.1457.610.490.46
Weber St.BSky0.792.9866.6769.680.261.17
GonzagaWCC2.822.1678.2676.701.601.16
San Jose St.MWC2.722.1620.0019.89-1.63-1.30
North Dakota St.Sum2.622.1059.0958.340.480.35
San FranciscoWCC2.712.0954.5550.970.250.04
Boise St.MWC2.622.0763.6462.590.710.52
PepperdineWCC2.662.0656.5259.450.350.39
KansasB122.561.9981.8278.481.631.13
WashingtonP122.551.9660.8758.770.550.34
PortlandWCC0.620.4538.4638.04-0.14-0.11
PacificWCC0.340.3123.8125.99-0.18-0.15
Washington St.P120.340.3134.7831.64-0.10-0.11
Saint Mary'sWCC0.330.2781.8281.780.210.17
WyomingMWC0.220.2743.4842.54-0.03-0.04
UC DavisBW0.410.2438.1035.34-0.10-0.07
Utah St.MWC0.220.2447.6249.28-0.01-0.00
DenverSum0.170.2452.0049.300.01-0.00
NevadaMWC0.230.2457.1455.360.030.03
San DiegoWCC0.270.2430.4328.20-0.11-0.10
Santa ClaraWCC0.320.2433.3332.04-0.11-0.09
BYUWCC0.260.2468.0070.260.100.10
Loyola MarymountWCC0.260.2441.6741.18-0.04-0.04
ArizonaP120.320.2379.1778.290.190.13
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.290.2166.6767.670.100.07
SeattleWAC0.350.2147.6245.02-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.280.2154.5552.530.030.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.170.2133.3334.95-0.06-0.06
Nebraska OmahaSum0.170.2058.3358.580.030.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.300.1733.3330.63-0.10-0.07
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.230.1731.8230.08-0.08-0.07
South DakotaSum0.290.1744.0043.56-0.03-0.02
UNLVMWC0.230.1752.1755.070.010.02
Fresno St.MWC0.280.1763.6461.550.080.04
UtahP120.220.1770.8368.520.090.06
San Diego St.MWC0.170.1769.5770.090.070.07
UCLAP120.260.1656.5253.400.030.01
IUPUISum0.170.1438.4638.50-0.04-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.180.1414.2915.44-0.13-0.10
Kansas St.B120.120.1458.3356.290.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.110.1458.3360.710.020.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.1473.9174.640.030.07
Arizona St.P120.230.1454.1751.700.020.00
ColoradoP120.110.1370.8365.580.050.04
TexasB120.160.1366.6762.200.050.03
BradleyMVC0.120.1112.0011.95-0.09-0.08
Air ForceMWC0.170.1043.4837.80-0.02-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.110.1086.3684.220.080.07
StanfordP120.130.1047.6244.06-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.110.1043.4843.77-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.110.1045.8341.63-0.01-0.02
Iowa St.B120.110.1070.8367.970.050.04
USCP120.160.1078.2673.130.090.04
TCUB120.160.1045.8339.36-0.01-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0750.0045.770.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0750.0052.870.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0756.0055.450.010.01
WisconsinB100.060.0762.5057.000.020.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0730.4332.26-0.02-0.03
ButlerBE0.120.0770.8369.000.050.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.120.0750.0049.320.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.130.0782.6181.130.080.04
HamptonMEAC0.060.0759.0961.280.010.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.130.0752.9452.100.010.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0743.4850.64-0.010.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.130.0716.6719.49-0.08-0.04
TulsaAmer0.060.0766.6764.700.020.02
UTSACUSA0.120.0713.0412.96-0.09-0.05
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0740.0042.85-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0720.8323.28-0.03-0.04
IPFWSum0.110.0770.8368.660.050.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0724.0024.16-0.03-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.050.0747.8350.89-0.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.110.0741.6742.39-0.02-0.01
UMBCAE0.060.0723.0825.87-0.03-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0731.5832.04-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.110.0745.4551.69-0.010.00
BuffaloMAC0.050.0756.5257.060.010.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0785.0083.440.040.04
SyracuseACC0.050.0768.0064.090.020.02
Michigan St.B100.110.0780.0081.560.070.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.0742.3146.12-0.02-0.01
OregonP120.050.0779.1777.200.030.04
UC IrvineBW0.110.0769.5770.020.040.03
BaylorB120.050.0673.9168.450.030.02
OklahomaB120.050.0686.9682.620.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0645.8342.30-0.00-0.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0663.6458.760.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0660.8755.310.010.01
West VirginiaB120.110.0679.1778.100.060.04
MarquetteBE0.060.0464.0057.890.020.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0460.8762.080.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0340.9138.82-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0360.8757.130.010.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0347.6249.39-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0314.2920.64-0.04-0.02
DavidsonA100.060.0361.9058.170.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.039.0912.26-0.04-0.03
DuquesneA100.050.0360.8756.270.010.00
IllinoisB100.050.0345.8344.07-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.039.5210.67-0.04-0.03
LamarSlnd0.000.0330.0029.13-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0347.8351.92-0.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0360.0062.250.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0329.1733.11-0.02-0.01
PittsburghACC0.060.0372.7367.600.030.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0327.2728.16-0.02-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0330.0031.76-0.02-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0331.8234.54-0.02-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0370.8370.130.020.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0331.8232.46-0.02-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0360.0057.650.010.01
SamfordSC0.050.0340.0041.68-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0386.9682.920.000.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0350.0048.130.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0375.0075.340.030.02
TroySB0.050.0322.7324.38-0.03-0.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0366.6764.780.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0337.5042.32-0.01-0.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0335.0038.57-0.02-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0341.6739.59-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0375.0072.610.030.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0333.3335.18-0.02-0.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0365.3865.510.020.01
PennIvy0.050.0338.8937.69-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0358.3359.970.010.01