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Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


Montana

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:165.4
Current RPI:149
Expected SOS:192
Current SOS:21
Current Record:2-6
Expected Record:14-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-5
Current OOC Record:2-6
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:169
Expected OOC SOS:36



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-650.50.02%
20-759.40.10%
19-876.00.64%
18-993.32.66%
17-10109.76.92%
16-11127.913.36%
15-12146.119.44%
14-13166.620.32%
13-14187.016.79%
12-15208.911.12%
11-16230.05.42%
10-17252.22.32%
9-18273.10.63%
8-19288.60.22%
7-20308.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Montana.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Colorado St. (33.0)MWCA83-66L0%0.0
11-18Boise St. (51.1)MWCA72-67L0%0.0
11-23Seattle (283.0)WACA62-66W100%0.0
11-30San Francisco (121.9)WCCA76-57L0%0.0
12-3California (48.0)P12A78-76L0%0.0
12-7North Dakota St. (175.5)SumH69-57W100%0.0
12-10Davidson (27.6)A10H99-110L0%0.0
12-14Milwaukee (274.7)HorzA73-58L0%0.0
12-21South Dakota (260.3)SumH0-077%8.7
1-1Northern Colorado (185.1)BSkyH0-066%4.7
1-3North Dakota (268.0)BSkyH0-087%12.9
1-8Weber St. (242.0)BSkyA0-051%0.2
1-10Idaho St. (313.1)BSkyA0-063%4.0
1-17Montana St. (302.9)BSkyH0-089%14.4
1-22Northern Arizona (226.9)BSkyH0-074%7.6
1-24Southern Utah (308.9)BSkyH0-088%13.7
1-29Portland St. (267.7)BSkyA0-062%3.6
1-31Sacramento St. (265.0)BSkyA0-059%2.5
2-5Eastern Washington (54.8)BSkyH0-037%-3.8
2-7Idaho (201.4)BSkyH0-069%5.8
2-12North Dakota (268.0)BSkyA0-065%4.6
2-14Northern Colorado (185.1)BSkyA0-038%-3.7
2-19Idaho St. (313.1)BSkyH0-085%12.3
2-21Weber St. (242.0)BSkyH0-077%8.6
2-26Idaho (201.4)BSkyA0-041%-2.5
2-28Eastern Washington (54.8)BSkyA0-015%-12.1
3-7Montana St. (302.9)BSkyA0-070%6.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Montana's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Montana's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Montana.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MontanaBSky27.6126.3731.2555.24-10.352.77
Montana St.BSky0.354.7120.0026.48-0.21-2.22
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.944.6860.0076.440.192.47
IdahoBSky0.354.6137.5052.59-0.090.24
Idaho St.BSky0.004.5711.1129.14-0.00-1.91
Weber St.BSky0.004.5737.5044.98-0.00-0.46
North DakotaBSky0.354.5425.0034.12-0.17-1.44
Northern ColoradoBSky0.314.5337.5057.11-0.080.64
Sacramento St.BSky0.002.8342.8641.82-0.00-0.46
Southern UtahBSky0.352.8214.2930.50-0.25-1.10
Portland St.BSky0.312.8250.0042.260.00-0.44
Northern ArizonaBSky0.002.8036.3649.05-0.00-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum6.252.0562.5057.491.560.31
South DakotaSum0.002.0227.2738.85-0.00-0.45
Boise St.MWC6.252.0275.0071.883.120.88
Colorado St.MWC6.251.99100.0077.466.251.09
San FranciscoWCC6.251.9544.4452.53-0.690.10
SeattleWAC6.251.9537.5045.58-1.56-0.17
CaliforniaP126.251.9290.0068.005.000.69
MilwaukeeHorz6.251.8822.2228.94-3.47-0.79
DavidsonA106.251.8587.5076.484.690.98
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.5430.0038.57-0.00-0.12
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.4070.0059.660.000.08
WyomingMWC0.280.3280.0073.540.170.15
Nebraska OmahaSum0.350.3144.4455.37-0.040.03
Oral RobertsSum0.310.2440.0044.08-0.06-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.2316.6733.39-0.00-0.08
DenverSum0.310.2345.4555.13-0.030.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.2354.5548.260.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.2037.5031.88-0.00-0.07
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.2033.3343.14-0.00-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.2036.3645.11-0.00-0.02
PortlandWCC0.000.2070.0051.040.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.1940.0028.13-0.00-0.09
New MexicoMWC0.000.1972.7362.220.000.05
NevadaMWC0.280.1911.1125.48-0.22-0.09
Fresno St.MWC0.280.1927.2729.17-0.13-0.08
UC DavisBW0.000.1787.5068.000.000.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1733.3361.74-0.000.04
IUPUISum0.310.1727.2728.86-0.14-0.07
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.350.1718.1822.49-0.22-0.09
San Jose St.MWC0.350.160.008.00-0.35-0.14
UNLVMWC0.000.1666.6749.560.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.350.16100.0075.440.350.08
ColoradoP120.620.1666.6758.000.210.03
PacificWCC0.310.1655.5638.270.03-0.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.1433.3340.63-0.00-0.03
IPFWSum0.000.1450.0054.190.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.1370.0068.340.000.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1355.5655.710.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.1350.0055.890.000.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1372.7372.580.000.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.350.1325.0023.40-0.17-0.07
Saint Mary'sWCC0.350.1362.5058.080.090.02
UCLAP120.000.1266.6754.480.000.01
UMKCWAC0.310.1020.0040.84-0.19-0.02
MinnesotaB100.350.1080.0067.830.210.04
StetsonASun0.350.1010.0027.17-0.28-0.05
GonzagaWCC0.000.1090.9190.540.000.08
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1033.3349.35-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1055.5673.740.000.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1045.4543.23-0.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.350.1054.5557.570.030.01
UtahP120.000.1080.0080.520.000.06
WisconsinB100.660.1090.9188.840.540.07
USCP120.000.1060.0036.410.00-0.03
StanfordP120.000.0966.6758.320.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.070.0011.59-0.00-0.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0736.3637.85-0.00-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.0750.0043.310.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.310.0712.5026.89-0.23-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.070.0011.94-0.00-0.05
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0760.0061.600.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0750.0037.570.00-0.02
LSUSEC0.000.0780.0063.910.000.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0742.8633.27-0.00-0.02
OklahomaB120.000.0770.0062.710.000.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.350.0714.2915.15-0.25-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.350.0745.4549.62-0.03-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.660.0737.5063.95-0.160.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0733.3362.72-0.000.02
DetroitHorz0.000.0740.0048.02-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.000.0718.1819.46-0.00-0.04
DuquesneA100.000.0737.5034.06-0.00-0.02
George MasonA100.000.0733.3330.21-0.00-0.03
Green BayHorz0.000.0775.0077.010.000.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0718.1820.86-0.00-0.04
IndianaB100.000.0781.8263.330.000.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0760.0048.980.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0790.9183.090.000.04
OaklandHorz0.000.0727.2732.45-0.00-0.02
RichmondA100.000.0760.0057.700.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0772.7375.710.000.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0720.0052.97-0.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0781.8273.180.000.03
VCUA100.000.0772.7375.740.000.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.0760.0057.890.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0766.6765.500.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.630.0733.3328.79-0.21-0.03
OregonP120.000.0770.0057.440.000.01
TexasB120.630.0790.9179.980.520.04
UTSACUSA0.000.0737.5035.74-0.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0096.290.000.06
PepperdineWCC0.000.0666.6755.670.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0644.4436.80-0.00-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.600.0637.5041.94-0.15-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0082.630.000.04
Arizona St.P120.000.0654.5548.490.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.350.0460.0056.150.070.00
IowaB100.350.0466.6759.420.120.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0475.0058.160.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.350.0442.8626.99-0.05-0.02
Texas St.SB0.350.0450.0050.060.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0318.1837.71-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0068.770.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0363.6440.190.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0375.0058.760.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0330.0028.65-0.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0337.5046.38-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0380.0072.200.000.01
AuburnSEC0.310.0350.0039.790.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.350.0325.0043.93-0.17-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.350.0354.5564.070.030.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.350.0345.4545.10-0.03-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0380.0069.770.000.01
DePaulBE0.310.0360.0034.160.06-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0328.5727.11-0.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0362.5041.790.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0354.5552.730.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.310.0337.5049.31-0.08-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0354.5552.490.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.350.0312.5029.51-0.26-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.350.0372.7374.850.160.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.350.0375.0061.480.170.01
Oklahoma St.B120.310.0388.8963.020.240.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0366.6773.310.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0360.0043.160.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0360.0033.270.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0377.7865.110.000.01
UCFAmer0.350.0355.5635.900.04-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.350.0357.1455.330.050.00
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0086.080.000.02
CreightonBE0.000.0375.0052.140.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.310.0377.7872.060.170.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0340.0037.64-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.310.0377.7870.160.170.01
HawaiiBW0.310.0366.6754.470.100.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.310.0316.6736.63-0.21-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.310.0327.2735.36-0.14-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0377.7875.550.000.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0342.8649.51-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.310.0362.5072.070.080.01
MercerSC0.310.0344.4444.02-0.03-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0350.0047.880.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0370.0052.600.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.310.0333.3337.22-0.10-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0354.5559.560.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0350.0071.260.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0034.33-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0363.6461.520.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.310.0360.0071.280.060.01
XavierBE0.000.0372.7367.590.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.280.030.0027.67-0.28-0.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0377.7856.220.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.280.0333.3341.02-0.09-0.01
SyracuseACC0.280.0360.0058.120.060.00