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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Montana

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:66.0
Current RPI:66
Expected SOS:241
Current SOS:241
Current Record:23-6
Expected Record:23-6
Current Conf Record:21-1
Expected Conf Record:21-1
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:19-0
Current OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC RPI:147
Expected OOC SOS:21



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-666.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Montana.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Colorado St. (18.0)MWCA72-65L0%0.0
11-17Idaho (195.0)WACA63-66W100%0.0
11-24San Diego (165.0)WCCH67-66W100%0.0
11-28Brigham Young (69.0)WCCA85-60L0%0.0
11-30San Francisco (167.0)WCCA78-68L0%0.0
12-15South Dakota St. (62.0)SumH67-68L0%0.0
12-19Northern Arizona (255.0)BSkyA56-62W100%0.0
12-21Sacramento St. (283.0)BSkyA60-61W100%0.0
1-3Eastern Washington (321.0)BSkyH81-66W100%0.0
1-5Portland St. (339.0)BSkyH62-55W100%0.0
1-10North Dakota (226.0)BSkyA62-77W100%0.0
1-12Northern Colorado (257.0)BSkyA77-85W100%0.0
1-17Southern Utah (314.0)BSkyH73-67W100%0.0
1-19Montana St. (317.0)BSkyH76-71W100%0.0
1-24Idaho St. (337.0)BSkyH70-51W100%0.0
1-26Weber St. (84.0)BSkyH76-74W100%0.0
1-31Portland St. (339.0)BSkyA68-81W100%0.0
2-2Eastern Washington (321.0)BSkyA46-65W100%0.0
2-7Northern Colorado (257.0)BSkyH73-63W100%0.0
2-9North Dakota (226.0)BSkyH78-58W100%0.0
2-14Weber St. (84.0)BSkyA87-63L0%0.0
2-16Idaho St. (337.0)BSkyA54-61W100%0.0
2-23Davidson (61.0)SCA93-87L0%0.0
3-2Montana St. (317.0)BSkyA68-71W100%0.0
3-4Southern Utah (314.0)BSkyA74-86W100%0.0
3-7Sacramento St. (283.0)BSkyH63-52W100%0.0
3-9Northern Arizona (255.0)BSkyH63-50W100%0.0
3-15Northern Colorado (257.0)BSkyH70-56W100%0.0
3-16Weber St. (84.0)BSkyH67-64W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Montana's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Montana's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Montana.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MontanaBSky26.6826.6883.2183.2117.7217.72
Weber St.BSky6.456.4585.1985.194.544.54
Northern ColoradoBSky6.396.3942.3142.31-0.98-0.98
North DakotaBSky4.814.8150.0050.000.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky4.764.7636.6736.67-1.27-1.27
Montana St.BSky4.724.7242.3142.31-0.73-0.73
Southern UtahBSky4.724.7233.3333.33-1.57-1.57
Eastern WashingtonBSky4.674.6734.4834.48-1.45-1.45
Idaho St.BSky4.674.6718.5218.52-2.94-2.94
Sacramento St.BSky4.634.6348.0048.00-0.19-0.19
Portland St.BSky4.624.6225.0025.00-2.31-2.31
Brigham YoungWCC2.002.0063.3363.330.530.53
San DiegoWCC1.931.9345.1645.16-0.19-0.19
IdahoWAC1.841.8439.2939.29-0.39-0.39
San FranciscoWCC1.831.8342.8642.86-0.26-0.26
Colorado St.MWC1.811.8173.3373.330.850.85
South Dakota St.Sum1.781.7870.0070.000.710.71
DavidsonSC1.721.7277.4277.420.950.95
PortlandWCC0.380.3830.0030.00-0.15-0.15
Loyola MarymountWCC0.320.3231.2531.25-0.12-0.12
UC DavisBW0.290.2945.1645.16-0.03-0.03
San Jose St.WAC0.270.2728.5728.57-0.12-0.12
PepperdineWCC0.260.2637.9337.93-0.06-0.06
GonzagaWCC0.260.2693.7593.750.220.22
St. Mary'sWCC0.250.2581.2581.250.160.16
Utah St.WAC0.230.2366.6766.670.080.08
Santa ClaraWCC0.220.2263.3363.330.060.06
OregonP120.180.1876.4776.470.100.10
SeattleWAC0.180.1824.1424.14-0.09-0.09
Cal St. FullertonBW0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.170.1741.3841.38-0.03-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.160.1614.2914.29-0.11-0.11
Oregon St.P120.150.1543.7543.75-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.150.1541.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.150.1538.4638.46-0.03-0.03
DenverWAC0.150.1570.0070.000.060.06
Northern IowaMVC0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
NevadaMWC0.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Washington St.P120.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
WyomingMWC0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
Utah ValleyGWC0.140.1435.7135.71-0.04-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.140.1470.9770.970.060.06
New MexicoMWC0.140.1485.2985.290.100.10
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.140.1472.7372.730.060.06
Air ForceMWC0.120.1253.5753.570.010.01
South DakotaSum0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.1134.4834.48-0.04-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
HawaiiBW0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Texas San AntonioWAC0.090.0931.2531.25-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.090.0965.5265.520.030.03
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
ColoradoP120.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Appalachian St.SC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonSC0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Georgia SouthernSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0775.0075.000.030.03
Arizona St.P120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechWAC0.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
Texas ArlingtonWAC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Texas ChristianB120.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Texas St.WAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Texas El PasoCUSA0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
OaklandSum0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South Carolina UpstateASun0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0671.4371.430.020.02
ArizonaP120.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
CampbellBSth0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
PacificBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
StanfordP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
BaylorB120.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
BelmontOVC0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Georgia St.CAA0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Notre DameBE0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
CharlotteA100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
ElonSC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
NC GreensboroSC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
NC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
SamfordSC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0385.1985.190.020.02
TulaneCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02