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Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


Montana

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:98.2
Current RPI:109
Expected SOS:268
Current SOS:273
Current Record:12-5
Expected Record:20-8
Current Conf Record:7-0
Expected Conf Record:15-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-1
Current OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:187
Expected OOC SOS:264



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-563.24.69%
22-674.517.95%
21-788.229.64%
20-8104.826.85%
19-9124.714.49%
18-10144.85.06%
17-11165.41.09%
16-12184.70.22%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Montana.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Pittsburgh (188.1)ACCA78-83W100%0.0
11-15Penn St. (115.5)B10A70-57L0%0.0
11-20Oral Roberts (219.5)SumN69-64W100%0.0
11-21UC Santa Barbara (107.8)BWN80-73L0%0.0
11-29Stanford (89.4)P12A70-54L0%0.0
12-3Cal St. Northridge (335.1)BWH86-68W100%0.0
12-9Georgia St. (135.2)SBA71-68L0%0.0
12-17UC Riverside (302.5)BWH77-61W100%0.0
12-19UC Irvine (175.4)BWH86-68W100%0.0
12-22Washington (76.1)P12A66-63L0%0.0
12-28Northern Arizona (316.2)BSkyA69-87W100%0.0
12-30Southern Utah (264.7)BSkyA49-79W100%0.0
1-4North Dakota (213.8)BSkyH109-79W100%0.0
1-6Northern Colorado (145.3)BSkyH89-80W100%0.0
1-11Sacramento St. (279.9)BSkyA66-78W100%0.0
1-13Portland St. (122.1)BSkyA89-92W100%0.0
1-20Montana St. (220.4)BSkyA52-67W100%0.0
1-25Southern Utah (264.7)BSkyH0-094%17.1
1-27Northern Arizona (316.2)BSkyH0-096%20.0
2-1Northern Colorado (145.3)BSkyA0-059%2.5
2-3North Dakota (213.8)BSkyA0-072%6.5
2-8Portland St. (122.1)BSkyH0-072%6.3
2-10Sacramento St. (279.9)BSkyH0-092%15.3
2-15Eastern Washington (191.2)BSkyA0-060%2.7
2-17Idaho (146.3)BSkyA0-048%-0.5
2-24Montana St. (220.4)BSkyH0-089%13.4
3-1Weber St. (182.4)BSkyH0-076%8.0
3-3Idaho St. (263.5)BSkyH0-091%14.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Montana's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Montana's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Montana.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MontanaBSky26.3826.3278.4877.4915.0214.47
Montana St.BSky3.544.4952.9450.760.210.07
Sacramento St.BSky3.284.4017.6525.94-2.12-2.12
Portland St.BSky3.264.3962.5066.980.821.49
Northern ArizonaBSky3.194.3711.7616.30-2.44-2.94
North DakotaBSky3.114.3331.2536.38-1.17-1.18
Northern ColoradoBSky3.114.3362.5059.950.780.86
Southern UtahBSky3.104.3340.0036.22-0.62-1.19
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.832.8638.8946.25-0.18-0.21
Idaho St.BSky0.692.8043.7542.14-0.09-0.44
IdahoBSky0.592.7764.7167.410.170.96
Weber St.BSky0.512.7456.2558.730.060.48
Cal St. NorthridgeBW3.182.1318.7520.01-1.99-1.28
UC Santa BarbaraBW3.342.1268.7568.511.250.79
UC IrvineBW3.202.0731.5841.32-1.18-0.36
UC RiversideBW3.202.0418.7524.72-2.00-1.03
StanfordP123.101.9452.6348.680.16-0.05
WashingtonP123.011.8768.4260.181.110.38
Penn St.B103.091.8560.0054.340.620.16
PittsburghACC3.101.8542.1131.91-0.49-0.67
Georgia St.SB2.941.8264.7164.320.870.52
Oral RobertsSum3.011.8131.5833.79-1.11-0.59
UC DavisBW0.490.4758.8262.450.090.12
Long Beach St.BW0.410.3540.0043.34-0.08-0.05
HawaiiBW0.260.3168.7564.010.100.09
Cal St. FullertonBW0.330.3156.2556.820.040.04
Cal PolyBW0.320.3123.5328.20-0.17-0.14
PepperdineWCC0.420.2610.5318.34-0.34-0.16
DenverSum0.390.2533.3336.47-0.13-0.07
Nebraska OmahaSum0.400.2525.0028.02-0.20-0.11
CaliforniaP120.410.2436.8431.11-0.11-0.09
North Dakota St.Sum0.330.2344.4450.31-0.040.00
South DakotaSum0.240.2273.6872.400.110.10
Arizona St.P120.230.2178.9576.160.130.11
UNLVMWC0.250.1973.6865.250.120.06
Utah St.MWC0.240.1945.0045.47-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.150.1847.3741.43-0.01-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.170.1666.6766.030.060.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.230.1672.2272.970.100.07
Santa ClaraWCC0.170.1633.3332.96-0.06-0.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.330.1627.7829.10-0.15-0.07
San FranciscoWCC0.240.1550.0048.730.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.090.1557.8950.860.010.00
ColoradoP120.160.1560.0053.720.030.01
OregonP120.090.1565.0063.810.030.04
ArizonaP120.160.1580.0078.940.090.09
Boise St.MWC0.170.1378.9576.980.100.07
Central MichiganMAC0.170.1362.5058.710.040.02
Fresno St.MWC0.170.1366.6763.450.060.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.1329.4133.20-0.03-0.04
PortlandWCC0.170.1327.7827.26-0.07-0.06
TroySB0.170.1338.8944.43-0.04-0.01
SeattleWAC0.160.1257.8954.500.030.01
Kansas St.B120.230.1275.0065.320.110.04
IowaB100.160.1247.6243.94-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.240.1242.1139.93-0.04-0.02
DukeACC0.230.1289.4785.240.180.09
NebraskaB100.160.1263.6459.480.040.02
USCP120.230.1271.4368.300.100.04
UtahP120.070.1263.1659.720.020.02
UCLAP120.220.1265.0062.050.070.03
San Jose St.MWC0.090.1011.7612.80-0.07-0.07
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.1033.3339.89-0.03-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.1021.0523.52-0.05-0.05
Michigan St.B100.090.0985.7183.760.070.06
Little RockSB0.160.0922.2225.19-0.09-0.05
WyomingMWC0.090.0961.1156.790.020.01
San DiegoWCC0.170.0963.1657.530.040.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.170.0942.1143.50-0.03-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.160.0980.9583.260.100.06
Saint Mary'sWCC0.160.0990.4888.970.130.07
Ohio St.B100.070.0981.8276.870.050.05
BYUWCC0.000.0780.9576.240.000.03
Fort WayneSum0.070.0752.6351.680.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0742.8635.22-0.01-0.02
ButlerBE0.090.0666.6763.070.030.02
CreightonBE0.090.0675.0070.720.040.03
Southern MissCUSA0.090.0641.1838.47-0.02-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.170.0625.0039.91-0.08-0.01
MinnesotaB100.140.0663.6457.610.040.01
Oklahoma St.B120.150.0668.4254.040.050.00
NevadaMWC0.070.0685.7182.120.050.04
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0627.7831.08-0.04-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0645.0041.31-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0666.6765.390.030.02
HamptonMEAC0.080.0625.0043.18-0.04-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0633.3333.76-0.03-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0652.6355.280.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0645.0047.06-0.01-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0650.0051.640.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0658.8262.830.010.02
South AlabamaSB0.080.0650.0045.850.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.080.0635.0026.13-0.02-0.03
Texas St.SB0.000.0657.8950.210.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0660.0062.010.000.01
George MasonA100.160.0645.0041.29-0.02-0.01
MichiganB100.090.0676.1970.800.050.03
PacificWCC0.160.0645.0044.49-0.02-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.160.0668.4263.970.060.02
RiderMAAC0.140.0665.0065.330.040.02
KansasB120.150.0684.2179.760.100.03
LouisvilleACC0.070.0678.9569.820.040.02
MarylandB100.070.0666.6763.130.020.02
Miami FLACC0.070.0677.7870.410.040.02
North CarolinaACC0.070.0676.1972.570.040.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0665.0056.350.020.01
NorthwesternB100.140.0655.0050.370.010.00
SyracuseACC0.070.0668.4261.280.030.01
Virginia TechACC0.150.0670.0060.400.060.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0368.4264.160.030.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0365.0057.890.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0357.8966.270.010.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0360.0064.130.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0325.0028.250.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0370.0068.290.030.01
OaklandHorz0.070.0361.9065.150.020.01
TulsaAmer0.070.0355.0053.330.010.00
Air ForceMWC0.090.0337.5031.78-0.02-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0370.0071.220.030.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0333.3340.35-0.03-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0350.0051.390.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0343.7549.110.00-0.00
ValparaisoMVC0.090.0347.3748.77-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0352.9452.250.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0310.0016.77-0.07-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0331.5836.23-0.03-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0322.2228.57-0.05-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0327.7838.12-0.04-0.01
DaytonA100.080.0347.3750.94-0.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0331.5832.710.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.080.0350.0054.180.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0383.3381.420.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0326.6729.120.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.080.0350.0046.810.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.080.0352.6345.860.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.080.0311.1117.68-0.06-0.02
TulaneAmer0.080.0363.1657.870.020.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0383.3384.250.050.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0345.0045.03-0.01-0.00
BelmontOVC0.070.0371.4374.670.030.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0350.0052.500.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0365.0054.600.000.00
CampbellBSth0.070.0347.0647.41-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0384.2173.180.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0320.0032.24-0.04-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.039.5217.86-0.06-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.030.008.42-0.07-0.02
DuquesneA100.070.0370.0058.090.030.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0323.5332.57-0.04-0.01
FloridaSEC0.070.0373.6871.600.030.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0373.6869.660.000.01
George WashingtonA100.070.0345.0043.49-0.01-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.070.0352.6343.040.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.070.0343.7549.22-0.01-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0345.0043.620.00-0.00
IndianaB100.070.0360.0052.880.010.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0316.6724.90-0.05-0.01
LehighPat0.070.0338.8944.74-0.02-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0328.5731.24-0.03-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0342.1144.98-0.01-0.00
NavyPat0.070.0360.0055.160.010.00
NortheasternCAA0.070.0363.1663.210.020.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0363.1661.000.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.070.0370.0060.470.030.01
PurdueB100.000.0390.4888.390.000.02
RutgersB100.000.0355.0046.650.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.070.0363.1665.980.020.01
VirginiaACC0.000.0394.7486.110.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0342.1140.460.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.070.0380.0076.040.040.01
WisconsinB100.070.0350.0046.270.00-0.00