live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Montana

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:251.5
Current RPI:251
Expected SOS:311
Current SOS:133
Current Record:1-6
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-7
Current OOC Record:1-6
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:307
Expected OOC SOS:294



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-9131.10.08%
21-10146.90.26%
20-11160.00.92%
19-12178.63.10%
18-13196.56.32%
17-14214.911.17%
16-15231.214.92%
15-16249.317.38%
14-17265.416.79%
13-18280.912.65%
12-19294.48.85%
11-20306.54.43%
10-21318.02.23%
9-22325.90.61%
8-23330.40.21%
7-24340.20.06%
6-25333.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Montana.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11USC (44.4)P12A75-61L0%0.0
11-14Wyoming (182.2)MWCH72-73L0%0.0
11-18North Carolina St. (109.3)ACCN85-72L0%0.0
11-19Washington St. (196.7)P12N87-63L0%0.0
11-21Oral Roberts (305.9)SumN68-47W100%0.0
11-24Mississippi (134.5)SECA86-81L0%0.0
11-27South Dakota (218.7)SumA72-67L0%0.0
12-3Milwaukee (251.6)HorzH0-073%7.4
12-7San Jose St. (205.1)MWCH0-059%2.7
12-10Wyoming (182.2)MWCA0-031%-6.0
12-13Oregon (50.4)P12A0-07%-17.8
12-17UC Riverside (291.2)BWA0-055%1.4
12-22Pepperdine (185.5)WCCH0-061%3.4
12-29Idaho St. (276.7)BSkyH0-076%8.4
12-31Weber St. (175.7)BSkyH0-051%0.4
1-5Idaho (235.9)BSkyA0-043%-2.2
1-7Eastern Washington (219.8)BSkyA0-047%-0.9
1-12Northern Colorado (274.9)BSkyH0-073%7.3
1-14North Dakota (231.9)BSkyH0-061%3.3
1-19Portland St. (293.2)BSkyA0-056%1.9
1-21Sacramento St. (337.5)BSkyA0-073%7.3
1-26Eastern Washington (219.8)BSkyH0-067%5.2
1-28Idaho (235.9)BSkyH0-063%4.0
2-4Montana St. (178.9)BSkyH0-053%0.8
2-9Southern Utah (331.3)BSkyA0-070%6.2
2-11Northern Arizona (330.5)BSkyA0-069%6.0
2-16Sacramento St. (337.5)BSkyH0-087%13.4
2-18Portland St. (293.2)BSkyH0-075%8.1
2-25Montana St. (178.9)BSkyA0-033%-5.3
3-2Weber St. (175.7)BSkyA0-031%-5.8
3-4Idaho St. (276.7)BSkyA0-057%2.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Montana's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Montana's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Montana.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MontanaBSky28.9526.3516.1348.62-19.61-0.73
Montana St.BSky0.604.1650.0062.860.001.07
IdahoBSky0.004.0340.0051.17-0.000.09
Weber St.BSky0.004.0120.0054.64-0.000.37
Idaho St.BSky0.003.9914.2929.55-0.00-1.63
Sacramento St.BSky0.003.980.0021.39-0.00-2.28
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.003.9866.6752.080.000.17
Portland St.BSky0.003.9525.0040.88-0.00-0.72
WyomingMWC7.143.2950.0045.820.00-0.27
Southern UtahBSky0.002.470.0023.02-0.00-1.33
Northern ColoradoBSky0.002.4616.6741.23-0.00-0.43
Northern ArizonaBSky0.002.4414.2928.06-0.00-1.07
North DakotaBSky0.002.4333.3353.88-0.000.19
Washington St.P127.141.9040.0034.56-1.43-0.59
San Jose St.MWC0.601.8440.0037.31-0.12-0.47
South DakotaSum7.141.8450.0045.340.00-0.17
PepperdineWCC0.001.7650.0035.090.00-0.53
USCP127.141.75100.0074.537.140.86
Oral RobertsSum7.651.690.0020.01-7.65-1.02
OregonP120.001.6971.4365.820.000.54
MilwaukeeHorz0.001.6733.3333.36-0.00-0.56
UC RiversideBW0.001.640.0032.95-0.00-0.56
MississippiSEC7.741.6466.6744.212.58-0.19
North Carolina St.ACC7.141.6166.6748.922.38-0.03
DenverSum0.710.4433.3341.11-0.24-0.08
South Dakota St.Sum0.710.3214.2937.52-0.51-0.08
UNLVMWC0.000.2971.4349.590.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.000.2757.1448.410.00-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.2650.0053.560.000.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.2650.0058.980.000.05
ColoradoP120.000.2571.4359.850.000.05
San FranciscoWCC0.000.2383.3350.740.000.00
StanfordP120.000.2375.0059.100.000.04
UtahP120.000.2275.0061.040.000.05
PortlandWCC0.000.2160.0057.170.000.03
Colorado St.MWC0.000.2083.3361.490.000.05
Fresno St.MWC0.000.2060.0039.610.00-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.2037.5036.24-0.00-0.06
New MexicoMWC0.000.2071.4358.670.000.03
Arizona St.P120.000.2057.1436.050.00-0.06
BYUWCC0.000.2071.4368.660.000.07
Nebraska OmahaSum0.510.2033.3348.73-0.17-0.00
UCLAP120.000.19100.0083.550.000.13
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1850.0061.810.000.04
Air ForceMWC0.000.1750.0042.710.00-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.600.1760.0058.950.120.03
PacificWCC0.710.1750.0049.010.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.000.1785.7170.990.000.07
CaliforniaP120.710.1783.3363.610.480.05
WashingtonP120.000.1657.1452.630.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1516.6730.02-0.00-0.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1533.3345.60-0.00-0.01
Little RockSB0.000.1460.0057.900.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.1428.5747.72-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.140.0022.69-0.00-0.08
SeattleWAC0.000.1420.0042.63-0.00-0.02
Oregon St.P120.000.1428.5723.76-0.00-0.07
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1250.0059.670.000.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1216.6743.29-0.00-0.02
NevadaMWC0.000.1275.0070.470.000.05
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1275.0074.990.000.06
Fort WayneSum0.000.1166.6770.930.000.05
OaklandHorz0.600.1183.3378.430.400.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.700.1166.6754.420.570.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.1150.0052.140.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.510.1128.5727.50-0.22-0.05
CreightonBE1.620.11100.0076.651.620.06
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1185.7174.430.000.05
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0940.0057.49-0.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0933.3335.92-0.00-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.090.0039.35-0.00-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0950.0054.690.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.510.090.0033.44-0.51-0.03
NebraskaB100.000.0950.0043.610.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0971.4355.750.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.09100.0089.040.000.07
CornellIvy0.000.0828.5730.63-0.00-0.03
DePaulBE0.000.0880.0035.960.00-0.02
TroySB0.000.0833.3332.23-0.00-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0866.6756.360.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.08100.0091.060.000.07
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0866.6761.340.000.02
BaylorB120.600.08100.0074.460.600.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0850.0050.290.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0825.0034.47-0.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0650.0050.940.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0625.0024.28-0.00-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0625.0053.29-0.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0640.0050.91-0.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0660.0070.140.000.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0642.8645.30-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0058.600.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0683.3351.920.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.510.0633.3343.64-0.17-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0675.0064.960.000.02
BryantNEC0.000.0628.5750.20-0.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0616.6736.35-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0642.8646.78-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.060.0028.15-0.00-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0660.0043.970.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0620.0041.93-0.00-0.01
NJITASun0.000.0642.8650.32-0.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0671.4366.220.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0685.7169.010.000.02
TexasB120.000.0650.0036.240.00-0.02
Texas TechB120.000.0685.7163.780.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.0675.0073.840.000.03
XavierBE0.000.06100.0074.800.000.03
BelmontOVC0.000.0540.0061.37-0.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.510.0525.0030.93-0.26-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0516.6730.27-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.050.0019.51-0.00-0.03
Green BayHorz0.000.0533.3348.71-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0542.8637.60-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0566.6756.020.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0585.7159.740.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0583.3370.360.000.02
Texas A&MSEC0.510.0566.6766.100.170.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0583.3355.200.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0566.6739.720.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0571.4365.740.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0571.4343.020.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0550.0045.920.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0585.7180.010.000.03
Saint Joseph'sA101.020.0550.0046.780.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.05100.0080.780.000.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.0585.7162.920.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0571.4352.370.000.00
IowaB100.000.0342.8644.33-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0314.2931.71-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0350.0056.260.000.00
BucknellPat0.000.0375.0067.660.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0075.690.000.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0342.8638.05-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0350.0061.590.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0357.1448.600.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.600.0360.0039.200.12-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0350.0052.330.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0328.5739.44-0.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.510.030.0021.30-0.51-0.02
HofstraCAA0.510.0357.1440.550.07-0.01
HoustonAmer0.510.0383.3376.370.340.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0385.7155.890.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.510.0350.0051.820.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0333.3326.75-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6770.740.000.01
UMKCWAC0.510.0371.4356.050.220.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0314.2934.56-0.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.0333.3345.58-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0333.3338.76-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0383.3380.700.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0350.0047.560.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0357.1459.480.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0357.1447.320.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.000.0380.0068.320.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0024.19-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.510.0357.1469.300.070.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0325.0043.26-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0320.0036.00-0.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0383.3362.840.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0027.250.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0350.0053.530.000.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0350.0029.280.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0366.6753.460.000.00
DukeACC0.000.0387.5078.680.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0383.3362.080.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0387.5075.320.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0385.7162.410.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6754.380.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.510.0350.0045.410.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.510.0357.1442.660.07-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0086.250.000.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.0385.7175.950.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0371.4349.770.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.510.0383.3358.080.340.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0020.01-0.00-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.510.0385.7173.010.360.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0342.8661.90-0.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0075.010.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0385.7155.550.000.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0047.990.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.0383.3361.150.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.510.0316.6729.36-0.34-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6770.140.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.510.0375.0054.320.260.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0357.1448.860.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0082.550.000.02