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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Jacksonville

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:338.0
Current RPI:338
Expected SOS:338
Current SOS:338
Current Record:7-22
Expected Record:7-22
Current Conf Record:4-11
Expected Conf Record:4-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-15
Current OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC RPI:345
Expected OOC SOS:343



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-22338.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Jacksonville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Hofstra (174.0)CAAA94-61L0%0.0
11-18Jackson St. (322.0)SWACH57-66L0%0.0
11-20North Carolina St. (39.0)ACCA79-43L0%0.0
11-24IPFW (215.0)SumA89-71L0%0.0
11-29South Florida (273.0)AmerA79-65L0%0.0
12-1Samford (305.0)SCA76-70L0%0.0
12-4Appalachian St. (250.0)SBH56-67L0%0.0
12-6Bethune Cookman (344.0)MEACA52-47L0%0.0
12-14Florida (72.0)SECA79-34L0%0.0
12-17Gardner Webb (146.0)BSthH68-65W100%0.0
12-23Mississippi St. (216.0)SECA70-47L0%0.0
12-27Jacksonville St. (304.0)OVCH75-61W100%0.0
12-30Florida Atlantic (303.0)CUSAH50-68L0%0.0
1-6Florida A&M (350.0)MEACA56-79W100%0.0
1-10North Florida (162.0)ASunH63-86L0%0.0
1-14Stetson (335.0)ASunH71-69W100%0.0
1-17Florida Gulf Coast (137.0)ASunA79-50L0%0.0
1-22Lipscomb (271.0)ASunA80-77L0%0.0
1-24Northern Kentucky (265.0)ASunA81-59L0%0.0
1-29USC Upstate (208.0)ASunH65-78L0%0.0
1-31Kennesaw St. (319.0)ASunH50-51L0%0.0
2-6North Florida (162.0)ASunA77-50L0%0.0
2-12Kennesaw St. (319.0)ASunA78-65L0%0.0
2-14USC Upstate (208.0)ASunA70-89W100%0.0
2-19Northern Kentucky (265.0)ASunH83-75W100%0.0
2-21Lipscomb (271.0)ASunH83-87L0%0.0
2-25Stetson (335.0)ASunA70-67L0%0.0
2-28Florida Gulf Coast (137.0)ASunH75-67W100%0.0
3-3Florida Gulf Coast (137.0)ASunA81-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Jacksonville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Jacksonville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Jacksonville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
JacksonvilleASun26.3826.3823.5823.58-13.94-13.94
Florida Gulf CoastASun5.945.9465.3865.381.831.83
USC UpstateASun4.484.4864.2964.291.281.28
North FloridaASun4.474.4762.0762.071.081.08
StetsonASun4.424.4219.2319.23-2.72-2.72
LipscombASun4.334.3334.6234.62-1.33-1.33
Kennesaw St.ASun4.314.3121.4321.43-2.46-2.46
Northern KentuckyASun4.284.2838.4638.46-0.99-0.99
Florida A&MMEAC2.022.027.147.14-1.73-1.73
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.901.9027.5927.59-0.85-0.85
HofstraCAA1.831.8359.3859.380.340.34
Mississippi St.SEC1.811.8136.6736.67-0.48-0.48
North Carolina St.ACC1.811.8159.3859.380.340.34
Jackson St.SWAC1.801.8032.2632.26-0.64-0.64
South FloridaAmer1.801.8023.3323.33-0.96-0.96
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.791.7923.0823.08-0.96-0.96
IPFWSum1.791.7946.1546.15-0.14-0.14
SamfordSC1.781.7836.6736.67-0.48-0.48
FloridaSEC1.751.7546.8846.88-0.11-0.11
Appalachian St.SB1.751.7539.2939.29-0.38-0.38
Gardner WebbBSth1.721.7255.1755.170.180.18
Jacksonville St.OVC1.721.7235.7135.71-0.49-0.49
FIUCUSA0.360.3645.1645.16-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.290.2923.3323.33-0.16-0.16
Austin PeayOVC0.240.2421.4321.43-0.14-0.14
ChattanoogaSC0.240.2466.6766.670.080.08
UCFAmer0.240.2437.9337.93-0.06-0.06
Tennessee TechOVC0.230.2335.7135.71-0.07-0.07
Florida St.ACC0.230.2351.5251.520.010.01
FurmanSC0.200.2029.0329.03-0.09-0.09
ElonCAA0.200.2041.9441.94-0.03-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.190.1954.8454.840.020.02
BelmontOVC0.180.1867.7467.740.060.06
Tennessee St.OVC0.180.1810.3410.34-0.14-0.14
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.180.1856.6756.670.020.02
PurdueB100.170.1763.6463.640.050.05
VanderbiltSEC0.170.1758.0658.060.030.03
PittsburghACC0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.150.1567.7467.740.050.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.150.1567.8667.860.050.05
HamptonMEAC0.150.1548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.140.1475.8675.860.070.07
MissouriSEC0.140.1425.8125.81-0.07-0.07
MercerSC0.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
IdahoBSky0.120.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.120.1270.0070.000.050.05
Morehead St.OVC0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.120.1246.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.120.1257.1457.140.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.120.1227.5927.59-0.05-0.05
OhioMAC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
East CarolinaAmer0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
CampbellBSth0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Louisiana MonroeSB0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.110.1175.0075.000.060.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.110.1116.6716.67-0.07-0.07
ClemsonACC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
TulaneAmer0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.110.1158.8258.820.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
LSUSEC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
MississippiSEC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.110.11100.00100.000.110.11
William & MaryCAA0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
South DakotaSum0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
WyomingMWC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Green BayHorz0.090.0973.3373.330.040.04
IonaMAAC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
MaristMAAC0.090.0921.8821.88-0.05-0.05
MassachusettsA100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
West VirginiaB120.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0935.7135.71-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.090.0968.9768.970.030.03
High PointBSth0.090.0967.8667.860.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
UMKCWAC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
LibertyBSth0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
The CitadelSC0.080.0829.6329.63-0.03-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0828.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0862.9662.960.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0859.2659.260.020.02
SyracuseACC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
AuburnSEC0.080.0841.1841.18-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0818.7518.75-0.05-0.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0827.2727.27-0.04-0.04
TowsonCAA0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0864.7164.710.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.080.0868.5768.570.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
DenverSum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0652.9452.940.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
NebraskaB100.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
TexasB120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
WisconsinB100.060.0691.1891.180.050.05
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
South AlabamaSB0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.060.0629.6329.63-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
HowardMEAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
IllinoisB100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
MarylandB100.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
RadfordBSth0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
UMBCAE0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
HoustonAmer0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0690.9190.910.050.05
SMUAmer0.060.0681.2581.250.030.03
TempleAmer0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
TulsaAmer0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
VMISC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.04-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
SouthernSWAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Miami FLACC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0590.6290.620.040.04
Cal PolyBW0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0374.0774.070.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
KansasB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
RichmondA100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01