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Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


Jacksonville

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:252.0
Current RPI:255
Expected SOS:336
Current SOS:342
Current Record:11-12
Expected Record:13-14
Current Conf Record:7-3
Expected Conf Record:9-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-6
Current OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:314
Expected OOC SOS:330



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-12211.06.27%
14-13233.627.84%
13-14255.540.69%
12-15274.621.84%
11-16290.73.35%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Jacksonville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Appalachian St. (265.7)SBA76-68L0%0.0
11-17Florida St. (50.6)ACCA98-79L0%0.0
11-27IPFW (82.0)SumN63-71L0%0.0
11-28Navy (180.0)PatN71-65L0%0.0
11-29UNC Greensboro (285.3)SCA71-69L0%0.0
12-5Jacksonville St. (304.6)OVCA82-86W100%0.0
12-12South Carolina St. (209.0)MEACA81-74L0%0.0
12-16South Florida (246.6)AmerA88-75L0%0.0
12-21Florida A&M (347.6)MEACH68-66W100%0.0
12-22Florida (23.5)SECA89-65L0%0.0
12-29Marist (312.6)MAACH69-68W100%0.0
12-31Bethune Cookman (301.1)MEACH74-70W100%0.0
1-2Western Michigan (218.8)MACA76-72L0%0.0
1-9North Florida (152.6)ASunA83-68L0%0.0
1-14Kennesaw St. (283.4)ASunH83-70W100%0.0
1-16Lipscomb (267.6)ASunH76-73W100%0.0
1-21NJIT (184.9)ASunA83-63L0%0.0
1-23USC Upstate (327.4)ASunA68-77W100%0.0
1-27Florida Gulf Coast (212.4)ASunA69-78W100%0.0
1-30Stetson (304.8)ASunH75-60W100%0.0
2-1Florida Gulf Coast (212.4)ASunH83-80W100%0.0
2-6Stetson (304.8)ASunA88-96W100%0.0
2-11Lipscomb (267.6)ASunA93-92L0%0.0
2-13Kennesaw St. (283.4)ASunA0-048%-0.6
2-18USC Upstate (327.4)ASunH0-081%9.6
2-20NJIT (184.9)ASunH0-047%-0.8
2-25North Florida (152.6)ASunH0-035%-4.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Jacksonville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Jacksonville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Jacksonville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
JacksonvilleASun26.3626.3555.0652.842.671.49
StetsonASun4.904.6025.0029.58-2.45-1.88
USC UpstateASun2.914.5722.7323.46-1.59-2.42
Kennesaw St.ASun2.784.5526.0926.41-1.33-2.14
North FloridaASun2.894.5560.8762.720.631.16
NJITASun2.874.5454.1754.100.240.37
Florida Gulf CoastASun4.854.5355.0057.270.490.66
LipscombASun4.824.5126.0929.04-2.30-1.89
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.372.1333.3337.40-0.79-0.54
NavyPat2.412.0862.5063.240.600.55
Florida A&MMEAC2.362.0826.3226.13-1.12-0.99
IPFWSum2.412.0269.5767.540.940.71
FloridaSEC2.361.9865.2265.200.720.60
South Carolina St.MEAC2.281.9550.0052.440.000.10
South FloridaAmer2.221.9216.6717.05-1.48-1.26
UNC GreensboroSC2.261.9122.7325.76-1.23-0.93
Western MichiganMAC2.221.8828.5730.28-0.95-0.74
Florida St.ACC2.221.8865.2262.030.680.45
Appalachian St.SB2.171.8521.7425.75-1.23-0.90
Jacksonville St.OVC2.171.8525.0025.02-1.09-0.93
MaristMAAC2.171.8522.7325.12-1.19-0.92
Tennessee St.OVC0.370.3368.1865.170.140.10
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.190.3029.1733.11-0.08-0.10
BelmontOVC0.310.2668.0066.640.110.09
FIUCUSA0.300.2439.1342.98-0.06-0.03
The CitadelSC0.240.2430.4329.49-0.09-0.10
East CarolinaAmer0.190.2341.6739.49-0.03-0.05
ChattanoogaSC0.220.2383.3383.710.150.15
Austin PeayOVC0.270.2340.0042.85-0.05-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.150.2038.1037.67-0.04-0.05
SamfordSC0.190.2040.0041.68-0.04-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.190.2042.8641.34-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.240.2079.1778.100.140.11
MercerSC0.190.1966.6767.110.060.07
UCFAmer0.280.1950.0044.650.00-0.02
LSUSEC0.140.1962.5059.080.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1725.0033.23-0.05-0.06
Texas A&MSEC0.190.1775.0075.340.100.09
LouisvilleACC0.140.1679.1775.990.080.08
AkronMAC0.230.1682.6181.140.150.10
Miami OHMAC0.230.1634.7833.02-0.07-0.05
Kent St.MAC0.140.1665.2260.600.040.03
Boston UniversityPat0.170.1656.0056.510.020.02
KentuckySEC0.130.1575.0072.610.070.07
Delaware St.MEAC0.200.149.0912.26-0.16-0.10
Bowling GreenMAC0.150.1450.0045.770.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.190.1444.0043.56-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.1473.9174.640.070.07
OhioMAC0.190.1363.6461.470.050.03
HamptonMEAC0.200.1359.0961.280.040.03
RichmondA100.190.1356.5255.820.030.02
UABCUSA0.130.1383.3379.820.090.08
ClemsonACC0.140.1358.3358.400.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.1340.0043.39-0.02-0.02
IUPUISum0.090.1338.4638.50-0.02-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.1340.0043.49-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.090.1360.8755.980.020.02
DenverSum0.130.1352.0049.300.01-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.130.1365.2264.340.040.04
FurmanSC0.180.1356.0054.430.020.01
AlbanyAE0.130.1373.0873.780.060.06
LafayettePat0.090.1320.8321.68-0.05-0.07
North Carolina St.ACC0.180.1250.0048.950.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.130.1286.9680.420.100.08
Coppin St.MEAC0.150.1014.2920.64-0.11-0.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.150.1019.0525.90-0.09-0.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.150.1043.4850.64-0.020.00
WinthropBSth0.090.1066.6763.780.030.03
ElonCAA0.090.1050.0050.070.000.00
IndianaB100.090.1080.0075.690.050.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1029.1733.75-0.04-0.03
VCUA100.090.1070.8371.050.040.04
VMISC0.140.1019.0519.67-0.09-0.06
Ball St.MAC0.150.1060.8757.130.030.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.1050.0049.320.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.140.1070.8367.980.060.03
ArkansasSEC0.090.1050.0052.940.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.040.1047.6249.39-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.140.1048.0048.60-0.01-0.00
ToledoMAC0.100.1060.8762.080.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.130.0926.0927.89-0.06-0.04
UMBCAE0.090.0923.0825.87-0.05-0.05
North CarolinaACC0.140.0983.3378.380.090.05
ArmyPat0.090.0954.1754.290.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.130.0941.6739.59-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0958.3359.970.020.02
Miami FLACC0.090.0982.6177.580.060.05
TroySB0.090.0922.7324.38-0.05-0.05
TulaneAmer0.130.0936.0034.84-0.04-0.03
La SalleA100.100.0719.0520.30-0.06-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.0772.7370.520.040.03
MassachusettsA100.100.0743.4842.40-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.100.0745.0048.13-0.01-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.0730.4332.26-0.04-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0754.5552.530.000.00
MarquetteBE0.100.0764.0057.890.030.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0723.8125.49-0.02-0.03
UMKCWAC0.050.0728.5732.75-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.0714.2924.90-0.07-0.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0754.1751.700.000.00
DaytonA100.050.0786.9682.160.030.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.090.0760.8760.240.020.01
HartfordAE0.050.0724.0024.55-0.02-0.03
IllinoisB100.050.0745.8344.07-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0734.7832.39-0.01-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0714.2915.44-0.03-0.05
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0731.8234.54-0.03-0.02
WoffordSC0.050.0745.8348.12-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.050.0636.3638.97-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0660.8758.900.020.01
Wake ForestACC0.090.0641.6739.90-0.02-0.01
BrownIvy0.100.0631.5831.01-0.04-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0642.3144.53-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.040.0666.6765.240.010.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0654.1754.090.000.01
IonaMAAC0.090.0660.8760.670.020.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0645.4543.23-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0660.8762.470.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.090.0680.0081.160.060.04
Morehead St.OVC0.040.0652.1753.440.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0658.3358.580.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0624.0024.61-0.02-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0660.8759.830.020.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0660.0057.650.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0641.6742.39-0.02-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.090.0672.2274.700.040.03
ProvidenceBE0.040.0672.0069.130.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0634.7834.97-0.01-0.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0640.0042.04-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.0640.9143.32-0.02-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0633.3332.04-0.03-0.02
SienaMAAC0.090.0665.3864.970.030.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0616.6719.49-0.06-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.040.0652.1751.830.000.00
St. John'sBE0.040.0625.0023.45-0.02-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.040.0682.6183.010.030.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0650.0050.500.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.040.0637.5037.69-0.01-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0631.5832.04-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.040.0673.6874.620.020.03
DePaulBE0.090.0633.3334.02-0.03-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.040.0652.0048.920.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.090.0625.0024.93-0.05-0.03
LibertyBSth0.090.0634.7836.53-0.03-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0672.2275.600.040.03
VermontAE0.090.0652.0054.860.000.01
AmericanPat0.040.0629.1731.19-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.040.0652.1754.940.000.01
ColgatePat0.090.0643.4844.90-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.040.0639.1342.83-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.090.0633.3335.18-0.03-0.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0668.0064.090.020.02
HofstraCAA0.090.0666.6766.770.030.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0643.4843.77-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0686.3684.220.030.04
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0640.9138.82-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0672.0071.570.040.03
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0659.0955.160.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0655.0053.670.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0660.0062.250.020.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.0645.4549.05-0.01-0.00
MemphisAmer0.040.0658.3359.310.010.01
MississippiSEC0.090.0662.5058.940.020.01
SMUAmer0.090.0686.9682.920.060.04
South AlabamaSB0.050.0636.3636.29-0.01-0.02
TempleAmer0.040.0665.2262.370.010.01
Texas St.SB0.090.0640.0038.88-0.02-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0668.1871.350.020.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0435.0034.83-0.02-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0440.0040.34-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0473.0872.610.030.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0454.1754.200.000.00
DuquesneA100.050.0360.8756.270.010.00
High PointBSth0.050.0357.1459.870.010.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0358.3356.290.010.00
LongwoodBSth0.050.0321.7424.60-0.03-0.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0360.0055.560.010.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0372.7370.410.020.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.040.0336.8442.88-0.01-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.040.0328.5733.30-0.02-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0356.5257.060.010.00
Cal PolyBW0.050.0328.5734.11-0.02-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.040.034.357.72-0.04-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.050.0331.5831.68-0.02-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.040.0339.1341.05-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0382.6181.130.030.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0372.0071.320.020.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.040.0341.6741.18-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.040.0347.8350.89-0.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.040.0327.2726.45-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0345.0049.27-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.050.0330.4328.20-0.02-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.040.0313.0415.26-0.03-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0377.2773.930.030.02
UtahP120.050.0370.8368.520.020.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0382.6183.030.030.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0329.1726.69-0.02-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0327.2727.80-0.02-0.01
DukeACC0.000.0375.0071.840.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0354.1752.000.000.00
IowaB100.050.0379.1778.880.030.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0318.1821.11-0.03-0.02
Notre DameACC0.000.0370.8367.930.000.01
OregonP120.040.0379.1777.200.030.02
PennIvy0.040.0338.8937.69-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0372.7367.600.020.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0383.3378.460.030.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0339.1335.45-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0337.5042.32-0.01-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0370.8370.130.000.01
George WashingtonA100.040.0375.0071.960.020.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0380.0081.560.030.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0333.3330.28-0.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0345.8342.30-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.050.0380.0077.910.030.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0383.3381.280.030.02
Seton HallBE0.040.0370.8368.080.020.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0350.0048.130.00-0.00
TexasB120.050.0366.6762.200.020.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0366.6764.700.000.01