Jacksonville

Conference:	ASun
Expected RPI:	281.0
Current RPI:	281
Expected SOS:	313
Current SOS:	313
Current Record:	12-18
Expected Record:	12-18
Current Conf Record:	9-10
Expected Conf Record:	9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-10
Current OOC Record:	3-8
Expected OOC Record:	3-8
Expected OOC RPI:	284
Expected OOC SOS:	283

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-18	281.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Jacksonville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Georgia (140.0)	SEC	A	68-62	L	0%
11-16	Miami FL (4.0)	ACC	A	73-57	L	0%
11-19	Missouri St. (203.0)	MVC	A	58-64	W	100%
11-21	Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)	SB	A	78-56	L	0%
11-23	Rider (145.0)	MAAC	N	86-71	L	0%
11-24	Wisconsin Milwaukee (307.0)	Horz	N	66-71	W	100%
11-28	South Carolina St. (342.0)	MEAC	A	74-72	L	0%
12-7	South Carolina (222.0)	SEC	A	91-74	L	0%
12-18	Wofford (250.0)	SC	H	52-94	L	0%
12-22	Furman (343.0)	SC	H	65-53	W	100%
12-28	Indiana (8.0)	B10	A	93-59	L	0%
12-31	Northern Kentucky (264.0)	ASun	H	53-51	W	100%
1-2	Lipscomb (237.0)	ASun	H	85-71	W	100%
1-5	Florida Gulf Coast (94.0)	ASun	A	78-55	L	0%
1-7	Stetson (220.0)	ASun	A	81-72	L	0%
1-10	Kennesaw St. (341.0)	ASun	H	99-92	W	100%
1-12	Mercer (137.0)	ASun	H	49-47	W	100%
1-18	North Florida (230.0)	ASun	A	68-77	W	100%
1-24	East Tennessee St. (275.0)	ASun	A	80-83	W	100%
1-26	South Carolina Upstate (225.0)	ASun	A	79-64	L	0%
1-31	Stetson (220.0)	ASun	H	71-70	W	100%
2-2	Florida Gulf Coast (94.0)	ASun	H	78-81	L	0%
2-7	Mercer (137.0)	ASun	A	67-64	L	0%
2-9	Kennesaw St. (341.0)	ASun	A	75-68	L	0%
2-15	North Florida (230.0)	ASun	H	70-68	W	100%
2-21	South Carolina Upstate (225.0)	ASun	H	68-64	W	100%
2-23	East Tennessee St. (275.0)	ASun	H	58-61	L	0%
2-28	Lipscomb (237.0)	ASun	A	77-73	L	0%
3-2	Northern Kentucky (264.0)	ASun	A	66-62	L	0%
3-7	South Carolina Upstate (225.0)	ASun	N	62-76	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Jacksonville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Jacksonville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Jacksonville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Jacksonville	ASun	26.42	26.42	41.67	41.67	-4.40	-4.40
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	5.94	5.94	42.86	42.86	-0.85	-0.85
Mercer	ASun	4.52	4.52	66.67	66.67	1.51	1.51
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	4.46	4.46	66.67	66.67	1.49	1.49
Stetson	ASun	4.40	4.40	46.43	46.43	-0.31	-0.31
East Tennessee St.	ASun	4.35	4.35	27.59	27.59	-1.95	-1.95
North Florida	ASun	4.32	4.32	41.38	41.38	-0.75	-0.75
Lipscomb	ASun	4.32	4.32	37.04	37.04	-1.12	-1.12
Kennesaw St.	ASun	4.30	4.30	7.14	7.14	-3.68	-3.68
Northern Kentucky	ASun	4.26	4.26	40.00	40.00	-0.85	-0.85
South Carolina	SEC	1.86	1.86	41.94	41.94	-0.30	-0.30
Georgia	SEC	1.85	1.85	45.16	45.16	-0.18	-0.18
Miami FL	ACC	1.77	1.77	81.25	81.25	1.11	1.11
Furman	SC	1.77	1.77	17.86	17.86	-1.14	-1.14
South Carolina St.	MEAC	1.75	1.75	11.11	11.11	-1.36	-1.36
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	1.75	1.75	20.69	20.69	-1.02	-1.02
Wofford	SC	1.72	1.72	36.67	36.67	-0.46	-0.46
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	1.72	1.72	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Rider	MAAC	1.72	1.72	54.84	54.84	0.17	0.17
Indiana	B10	1.69	1.69	81.25	81.25	1.06	1.06
Missouri St.	MVC	1.69	1.69	30.00	30.00	-0.68	-0.68
Georgia Southern	SC	0.25	0.25	38.71	38.71	-0.06	-0.06
Hampton	MEAC	0.20	0.20	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.19	0.19	20.69	20.69	-0.11	-0.11
Mississippi	SEC	0.19	0.19	76.47	76.47	0.10	0.10
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.19	0.19	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Florida International	SB	0.19	0.19	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.17	0.17	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Chattanooga	SC	0.16	0.16	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.16	0.16	76.47	76.47	0.09	0.09
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.16	0.16	31.25	31.25	-0.06	-0.06
Florida St.	ACC	0.16	0.16	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.15	0.15	69.70	69.70	0.06	0.06
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.14	0.14	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
Davidson	SC	0.14	0.14	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.14	0.14	37.04	37.04	-0.04	-0.04
Elon	SC	0.14	0.14	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Samford	SC	0.14	0.14	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Clemson	ACC	0.14	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.13	0.13	78.79	78.79	0.08	0.08
Tennessee	SEC	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.13	0.13	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
San Francisco	WCC	0.12	0.12	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.11	0.11	80.00	80.00	0.07	0.07
Siena	MAAC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.11	0.11	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
College of Charleston	SC	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Memphis	CUSA	0.11	0.11	88.24	88.24	0.09	0.09
NC Greensboro	SC	0.11	0.11	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
The Citadel	SC	0.11	0.11	21.43	21.43	-0.06	-0.06
Appalachian St.	SC	0.11	0.11	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.11	0.11	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.11	0.11	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.11	0.11	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.10	0.10	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Duke	ACC	0.10	0.10	84.38	84.38	0.07	0.07
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
South Florida	BE	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.08	0.08	28.12	28.12	-0.04	-0.04
Central Florida	CUSA	0.08	0.08	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Detroit	Horz	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Baylor	B12	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
NC Asheville	BSth	0.08	0.08	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.08	0.08	35.71	35.71	-0.02	-0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Iowa	B10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Hawaii	BW	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.08	0.08	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Florida	SEC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Iona	MAAC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.06	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Albany	AE	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.06	0.06	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.06	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.06	0.06	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Radford	BSth	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.06	0.06	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	14.81	14.81	-0.04	-0.04
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.05	0.05	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Denver	WAC	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Maine	AE	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Monmouth	NEC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	59.26	59.26	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Southern California	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Butler	A10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00