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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Jacksonville

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:301.6
Current RPI:282
Expected SOS:315
Current SOS:301
Current Record:6-12
Expected Record:9-18
Current Conf Record:4-1
Expected Conf Record:7-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-10
Current OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC RPI:321
Expected OOC SOS:254



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-13224.00.03%
13-14241.10.39%
12-15257.13.03%
11-16274.011.06%
10-17290.323.07%
9-18305.030.07%
8-19317.521.72%
7-20327.29.22%
6-21334.41.40%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Jacksonville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10UAB (126.6)CUSAA96-67L0%0.0
11-12Georgetown (142.9)BEA73-57L0%0.0
11-18North Carolina A&T (241.0)MEACH82-90L0%0.0
11-24Fairfield (218.1)MAACN84-92W100%0.0
11-25Wright St. (110.8)HorzA68-44L0%0.0
11-26Gardner Webb (228.2)BSthN106-99W100%0.0
11-30Bethune Cookman (288.3)MEACH66-77L0%0.0
12-2Eastern Kentucky (270.1)OVCA70-65L0%0.0
12-5Milwaukee (242.2)HorzH52-62L0%0.0
12-16South Carolina St. (325.7)MEACA83-74L0%0.0
12-20Northern Arizona (317.1)BSkyH72-83L0%0.0
12-22North Carolina St. (104.0)ACCA116-64L0%0.0
12-30Michigan (37.6)B10A76-51L0%0.0
1-6North Florida (241.9)ASunA86-90W100%0.0
1-11Kennesaw St. (313.7)ASunH65-58W100%0.0
1-13Lipscomb (133.1)ASunH87-69W100%0.0
1-18USC Upstate (335.9)ASunA91-85L0%0.0
1-20NJIT (275.0)ASunA61-63W100%0.0
1-24Stetson (305.8)ASunH0-055%1.3
1-27Florida Gulf Coast (149.6)ASunA0-05%-17.8
1-29Stetson (305.8)ASunA0-032%-5.1
2-3Florida Gulf Coast (149.6)ASunH0-015%-11.4
2-8Lipscomb (133.1)ASunA0-012%-13.1
2-10Kennesaw St. (313.7)ASunA0-034%-4.6
2-15NJIT (275.0)ASunH0-044%-1.7
2-17USC Upstate (335.9)ASunH0-064%4.1
2-22North Florida (241.9)ASunH0-050%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Jacksonville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Jacksonville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Jacksonville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
JacksonvilleASun26.3526.3736.5934.65-7.07-8.10
North FloridaASun3.164.5633.3335.93-1.05-1.28
USC UpstateASun3.014.565.8814.01-2.65-3.28
Kennesaw St.ASun3.014.5517.6524.26-1.95-2.34
StetsonASun0.394.5533.3335.37-0.13-1.33
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.314.5357.8964.460.051.31
NJITASun2.934.5241.1843.77-0.52-0.56
LipscombASun2.934.5256.2560.620.370.96
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.932.0547.0650.76-0.170.03
Gardner WebbBSth3.011.9841.1842.30-0.53-0.31
Wright St.Horz3.001.9866.6768.151.000.72
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.851.9552.9455.200.170.20
South Carolina St.MEAC2.921.9523.5329.28-1.55-0.81
MichiganB102.851.9275.0069.731.430.76
FairfieldMAAC2.931.9241.1845.65-0.52-0.17
MilwaukeeHorz2.851.9242.1145.18-0.45-0.18
GeorgetownBE2.851.8866.6752.430.950.09
North Carolina St.ACC2.851.8863.1654.880.750.18
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.781.8527.7830.32-1.23-0.73
Northern ArizonaBSky2.781.855.8812.27-2.45-1.40
UABCUSA2.781.8558.8262.850.490.48
FIUCUSA0.220.2635.2935.54-0.06-0.08
BelmontOVC0.230.2471.4374.660.100.12
Tennessee St.OVC0.240.2435.2940.48-0.07-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.370.2325.0031.45-0.19-0.08
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.240.2152.9452.650.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.310.2057.8953.190.050.01
CampbellBSth0.150.2047.0647.41-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.140.2025.0027.94-0.07-0.09
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.2072.2274.710.030.10
Florida A&MMEAC0.150.1910.0019.63-0.12-0.12
HamptonMEAC0.150.1920.0041.73-0.09-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.150.199.5217.90-0.12-0.12
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.300.1915.7920.91-0.21-0.11
Norfolk St.MEAC0.230.1918.7536.82-0.14-0.05
PurdueB100.220.1690.4888.370.180.13
PresbyterianBSth0.300.1627.7827.10-0.13-0.07
HowardMEAC0.230.1610.5327.29-0.18-0.07
Northern KentuckyHorz0.220.1666.6773.210.070.07
DetroitHorz0.210.1621.0525.97-0.12-0.08
NavyPat0.080.1460.0055.160.020.01
Morehead St.OVC0.080.1423.5328.69-0.04-0.06
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.1358.8249.760.01-0.00
DenverSum0.080.1333.3336.48-0.03-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.1352.6358.590.000.02
UCFAmer0.150.1368.4260.860.060.03
ButlerBE0.150.1366.6763.070.050.03
CreightonBE0.150.1375.0070.700.080.05
IonaMAAC0.150.1360.0064.110.030.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.220.1370.0068.220.090.05
MaristMAAC0.080.1321.0522.02-0.04-0.07
Seton HallBE0.150.1375.0067.890.080.05
South FloridaAmer0.150.1335.0026.12-0.05-0.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.150.1337.5037.68-0.04-0.03
SienaMAAC0.000.1328.5729.940.00-0.05
Miami FLACC0.220.1377.7870.480.120.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.1320.0023.34-0.04-0.07
Delaware St.MEAC0.230.130.009.09-0.23-0.10
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.140.1342.1146.00-0.02-0.01
IUPUIHorz0.140.1327.7829.83-0.06-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.1343.7554.110.000.01
OaklandHorz0.140.1361.9065.160.030.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1327.7834.500.00-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.220.1368.4270.810.080.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.140.1321.0523.51-0.08-0.07
TexasB120.150.1063.1657.630.040.02
TennesseeSEC0.150.1072.2268.930.070.04
BuffaloMAC0.150.1072.2274.930.070.05
DuquesneA100.080.1070.0058.090.030.02
Kansas St.B120.150.1073.6862.720.070.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.150.1040.0042.52-0.03-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.1036.8432.76-0.02-0.03
WagnerNEC0.150.1064.7164.570.050.03
WashingtonP120.150.1070.0061.440.060.02
YaleIvy0.150.1041.1847.56-0.03-0.00
MinnesotaB100.080.1063.6457.630.020.02
NebraskaB100.070.1066.6759.820.020.02
RutgersB100.140.1055.0046.690.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.150.1073.6871.560.070.04
Florida St.ACC0.080.1073.6869.640.040.04
UMKCWAC0.150.1021.0524.75-0.08-0.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.150.1042.1144.96-0.02-0.01
RadfordBSth0.150.1057.8958.850.020.02
WinthropBSth0.150.1050.0059.450.000.02
LSUSEC0.140.1061.1153.170.030.01
Michigan St.B100.140.1085.0083.200.100.06
VCUA100.140.1060.0059.700.030.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.150.1038.8946.05-0.03-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.150.1068.4263.650.060.03
Montana St.BSky0.150.1050.0047.660.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.1029.4139.63-0.03-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.150.1044.4446.65-0.02-0.01
MarylandB100.140.0970.0065.250.060.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.220.0910.5316.75-0.17-0.06
Southern MissCUSA0.140.0941.1838.47-0.03-0.02
WisconsinB100.150.0950.0046.300.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.150.0952.6343.110.01-0.01
IowaB100.140.0947.6244.02-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.220.0984.2173.240.150.04
North CarolinaACC0.070.0980.0075.060.040.05
AlabamaSEC0.080.0768.4258.980.030.01
BrownIvy0.080.0750.0045.140.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.080.0750.0051.030.000.00
DrexelCAA0.080.0730.0030.99-0.03-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0723.5332.57-0.04-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.000.0752.6351.690.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0766.6755.940.030.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0766.6765.370.030.02
HofstraCAA0.080.0757.8959.490.010.01
LafayettePat0.080.0722.2227.47-0.04-0.03
MercerSC0.080.0744.4454.86-0.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0744.4450.310.000.00
SamfordSC0.080.0727.7832.66-0.03-0.02
SeattleWAC0.080.0757.8954.500.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0750.0045.870.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.080.0778.9571.810.040.03
UMass LowellAE0.080.0733.3333.87-0.03-0.02
West VirginiaB120.080.0784.2178.170.050.04
Ball St.MAC0.070.0761.1158.700.020.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0746.6746.97-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.080.0743.7549.23-0.01-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0747.3746.090.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.080.0750.0054.190.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.080.0716.6716.16-0.05-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0772.2258.920.030.01
MissouriSEC0.070.0766.6763.200.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0730.0032.520.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0783.3381.430.000.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0733.3335.210.00-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0760.0062.030.000.02
Wichita St.Amer0.000.0778.9577.380.000.04
WoffordSC0.070.0768.7563.690.030.02
AuburnSEC0.150.0689.4777.000.120.04
DePaulBE0.070.0642.1134.31-0.01-0.02
IdahoBSky0.080.0664.7166.850.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0643.7540.93-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0652.6355.290.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.140.0678.9574.190.080.03
ManhattanMAAC0.150.0650.0050.860.000.00
MarquetteBE0.070.0668.4260.550.030.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0627.7841.030.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.080.0670.5973.150.030.03
Murray St.OVC0.070.0670.5975.950.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0657.1453.050.010.00
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0678.9576.750.040.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.0670.0060.470.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0635.0031.830.00-0.02
RiceCUSA0.070.0611.1117.68-0.06-0.04
RichmondA100.150.0631.5834.36-0.06-0.02
RiderMAAC0.080.0665.0065.320.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0642.1143.51-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0637.5033.78-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.150.0647.3742.16-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0626.3231.50-0.03-0.02
VillanovaBE0.070.0694.7490.310.070.05
Weber St.BSky0.080.0656.2557.400.010.01
XavierBE0.000.0685.7180.080.000.04
UCLAP120.140.0665.0062.050.040.02
ArizonaP120.150.0680.0078.940.090.04
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0665.0054.670.020.01
SyracuseACC0.070.0668.4261.230.030.01
Virginia TechACC0.080.0668.4257.740.030.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0655.0050.330.000.00
Ohio St.B100.070.0680.9576.520.040.03
Penn St.B100.070.0661.9055.760.020.01
Notre DameACC0.070.0663.1661.020.020.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0642.1140.46-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.080.0378.9576.130.040.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0344.4446.000.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0350.0053.260.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.080.0323.5328.21-0.04-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0329.4133.20-0.03-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0361.9063.140.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0345.0049.29-0.01-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0352.3848.530.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0323.5325.640.00-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0322.2228.59-0.04-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0366.6765.640.030.01
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0342.1132.47-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0329.4133.93-0.03-0.01
ElonCAA0.070.0352.6351.080.000.00
FurmanSC0.080.0366.6768.540.030.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0336.8444.11-0.02-0.00
HoustonAmer0.080.0378.9572.990.040.01
Iowa St.B120.070.0361.1147.220.02-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.070.0344.4444.92-0.01-0.00
LamarSlnd0.080.0350.0054.890.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.080.0322.2228.66-0.04-0.01
MaineAE0.070.0310.5314.83-0.06-0.02
MemphisAmer0.080.0365.0058.540.020.01
Miami OHMAC0.070.0347.0641.41-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0352.6345.860.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.030.0010.67-0.08-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0370.0068.300.030.01
New HampshireAE0.080.0333.3340.08-0.03-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0337.5045.24-0.02-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0329.4134.760.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0358.8257.140.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0341.1839.16-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.070.0357.8950.840.010.00
PennIvy0.080.0364.7162.720.020.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0358.8263.210.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0321.0539.48-0.04-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0316.6724.450.00-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0342.1146.09-0.01-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.080.0363.1657.540.020.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0333.3332.94-0.03-0.01
South DakotaSum0.080.0373.6872.380.040.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0355.0052.470.010.00
The CitadelSC0.080.0318.7518.36-0.05-0.02
ToledoMAC0.070.0366.6767.700.020.01
TroySB0.080.0335.2942.76-0.02-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.080.0330.0039.93-0.03-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0345.0045.03-0.01-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0333.3334.100.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0341.1839.650.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.080.0347.3741.44-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0342.8635.24-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0352.9452.230.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0362.5058.690.020.01
IllinoisB100.070.0347.3744.27-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.070.0357.8950.710.010.00
UC RiversideBW0.070.0317.6523.86-0.04-0.02
BryantNEC0.070.039.5217.12-0.06-0.02
DukeACC0.070.0389.4785.210.050.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.0378.9569.790.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0344.4450.08-0.010.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0340.0030.870.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0357.1460.410.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0368.7567.600.030.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0394.7486.140.060.02
VMISC0.070.0325.0024.15-0.03-0.02