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Through games of Nov 27, 2014.


Jacksonville

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:324.8
Current RPI:318
Expected SOS:299
Current SOS:206
Current Record:0-4
Expected Record:7-21
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:4-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-10
Current OOC Record:0-4
Expected OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC RPI:329
Expected OOC SOS:290



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-13190.70.03%
14-14219.60.11%
13-15236.20.40%
12-16255.01.18%
11-17275.43.22%
10-18292.96.53%
9-19307.812.12%
8-20320.716.19%
7-21330.019.60%
6-22337.317.20%
5-23342.412.64%
4-24346.17.39%
3-25347.92.56%
2-26349.30.70%
1-27350.40.12%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Jacksonville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Hofstra (97.2)CAAA94-61L0%0.0
11-18Jackson St. (285.7)SWACH57-66L0%0.0
11-20North Carolina St. (35.2)ACCA79-43L0%0.0
11-24IPFW (165.3)SumA89-71L0%0.0
11-29South Florida (115.8)AmerA0-06%-18.7
12-1Samford (297.5)SCA0-031%-6.0
12-4Appalachian St. (295.7)SBH0-058%2.4
12-6Bethune Cookman (338.6)MEACA0-042%-2.4
12-14Florida (52.3)SECA0-01%-27.4
12-17Gardner Webb (127.0)BSthH0-024%-8.7
12-23Mississippi St. (192.4)SECA0-09%-15.8
12-27Jacksonville St. (286.9)OVCH0-053%0.8
12-30Florida Atlantic (245.9)CUSAH0-035%-4.5
1-6Florida A&M (346.8)MEACA0-055%1.6
1-10North Florida (190.3)ASunH0-029%-6.6
1-14Stetson (313.8)ASunH0-055%1.5
1-17Florida Gulf Coast (73.7)ASunA0-04%-21.6
1-22Lipscomb (219.4)ASunA0-015%-12.3
1-24Northern Kentucky (239.4)ASunA0-021%-9.9
1-29USC Upstate (214.8)ASunH0-030%-6.3
1-31Kennesaw St. (302.9)ASunH0-059%2.6
2-6North Florida (190.3)ASunA0-012%-13.8
2-12Kennesaw St. (302.9)ASunA0-035%-4.6
2-14USC Upstate (214.8)ASunA0-013%-13.5
2-19Northern Kentucky (239.4)ASunH0-041%-2.7
2-21Lipscomb (219.4)ASunH0-033%-5.1
2-25Stetson (313.8)ASunA0-032%-5.7
2-28Florida Gulf Coast (73.7)ASunH0-012%-14.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Jacksonville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Jacksonville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Jacksonville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
JacksonvilleASun30.8326.350.0025.57-30.83-12.87
StetsonASun0.004.520.0027.44-0.00-2.04
North FloridaASun0.004.4240.0049.22-0.00-0.07
USC UpstateASun0.004.4275.0055.560.000.49
Kennesaw St.ASun0.004.4033.3328.05-0.00-1.93
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.004.3680.0070.710.001.80
Northern KentuckyASun0.004.3625.0036.95-0.00-1.14
LipscombASun0.004.350.0041.00-0.00-0.78
Florida A&MMEAC0.002.110.0018.10-0.00-1.35
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.001.9820.0030.29-0.00-0.78
HofstraCAA13.751.9050.0067.790.000.68
Mississippi St.SEC0.001.88100.0043.520.00-0.24
Jackson St.SWAC13.751.870.0041.49-13.75-0.32
North Carolina St.ACC15.001.87100.0063.6715.000.51
South FloridaAmer3.751.8775.0054.141.880.16
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.001.850.0038.42-0.00-0.43
IPFWSum12.501.8550.0060.980.000.41
SamfordSC0.001.8533.3334.84-0.00-0.56
FloridaSEC0.001.8260.0061.150.000.40
Appalachian St.SB0.001.8150.0027.910.00-0.80
Gardner WebbBSth0.001.7940.0057.72-0.000.28
Jacksonville St.OVC0.001.7925.0030.63-0.00-0.69
FIUCUSA0.000.3633.3337.71-0.00-0.09
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.320.0028.59-0.00-0.14
Austin PeayOVC0.000.2620.0039.02-0.00-0.06
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.2650.0037.530.00-0.06
ChattanoogaSC0.000.2640.0054.85-0.000.02
UCFAmer0.000.2666.6741.780.00-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.2540.0038.97-0.00-0.05
ElonCAA0.000.2240.0039.26-0.00-0.05
BelmontOVC0.000.2080.0075.550.000.10
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.190.0025.08-0.00-0.10
VanderbiltSEC0.000.19100.0053.730.000.01
PurdueB100.000.1983.3368.400.000.07
FurmanSC0.000.1925.0027.48-0.00-0.09
AlabamaSEC0.000.1880.0058.550.000.03
Georgia TechACC2.080.1675.0044.851.04-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.1640.0036.39-0.00-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.000.1616.6745.35-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1650.0051.380.000.00
UABCUSA1.250.1520.0037.96-0.75-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.150.0067.79-0.000.05
MercerSC0.000.1550.0054.380.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1333.3354.85-0.000.01
IdahoBSky0.000.1333.3348.86-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.1333.3364.43-0.000.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1350.0047.410.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.1383.3338.760.00-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1333.3358.80-0.000.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.130.0051.90-0.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1366.6741.200.00-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1350.0040.660.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.1333.3360.46-0.000.03
PittsburghACC0.000.1260.0057.910.000.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1250.0052.250.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1225.0035.86-0.00-0.03
LSUSEC0.000.1260.0056.260.000.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1240.0033.19-0.00-0.04
ClemsonACC0.000.1260.0050.620.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1225.0043.61-0.00-0.02
MississippiSEC0.000.1275.0053.040.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1280.0072.400.000.05
TennesseeSEC0.000.1266.6746.480.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.120.0033.90-0.00-0.04
TulaneAmer0.000.1266.6739.850.00-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.1266.6751.440.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.1050.0045.460.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1050.0070.920.000.04
OhioMAC0.000.1066.6752.280.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1025.0053.73-0.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.1033.3353.65-0.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.10100.0069.490.000.04
LibertyBSth0.000.1020.0029.36-0.00-0.04
CampbellBSth0.000.100.0035.96-0.00-0.03
UMKCWAC0.000.1020.0042.43-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0966.6753.030.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.09100.0068.860.000.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.09100.0057.070.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0960.0056.890.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.090.0036.05-0.00-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.090.0036.81-0.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.09100.0079.690.000.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0940.0053.54-0.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0028.02-0.00-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0925.0052.42-0.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0925.0047.85-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0980.0067.950.000.03
KentuckySEC0.000.09100.0089.470.000.07
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0975.0068.660.000.03
The CitadelSC0.000.090.0028.25-0.00-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0940.0047.99-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0975.0069.780.000.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.090.0032.17-0.00-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.090.0063.05-0.000.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.090.0015.46-0.00-0.06
TowsonCAA0.000.0980.0057.880.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.0980.0077.100.000.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.090.0041.21-0.00-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0975.0055.000.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.0775.0060.510.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0750.0060.380.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0740.0030.22-0.00-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0750.0050.720.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0740.0038.51-0.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0720.0037.69-0.00-0.02
South DakotaSum0.000.070.0038.79-0.00-0.02
TexasB120.000.07100.0079.050.000.04
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0725.0026.73-0.00-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0740.0037.90-0.00-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0733.3363.17-0.000.02
DavidsonA100.000.0766.6764.030.000.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0780.0074.820.000.03
Green BayHorz0.000.0775.0078.500.000.04
High PointBSth0.000.0775.0056.960.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0780.0079.440.000.04
LongwoodBSth0.000.0720.0022.33-0.00-0.04
MaristMAAC0.000.0720.0034.06-0.00-0.02
MarylandB100.000.07100.0071.310.000.03
MassachusettsA100.000.0783.3366.830.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0766.6750.170.000.00
NebraskaB100.000.0775.0052.330.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0780.0074.880.000.03
RadfordBSth0.000.0725.0046.52-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0750.0059.430.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0740.0060.45-0.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0740.0045.07-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.07100.0087.590.000.05
Wright St.Horz0.000.0750.0048.990.00-0.00
XavierBE0.000.07100.0078.730.000.04
DartmouthIvy0.000.070.0036.65-0.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.080.070.0033.42-2.08-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0660.0067.380.000.02
IowaB100.000.0666.6765.220.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.06100.0077.870.000.04
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.0023.49-0.00-0.03
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0063.120.000.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0666.6751.730.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0666.6751.540.000.00
ButlerBE0.000.0680.0071.410.000.03
CaliforniaP120.000.0680.0070.550.000.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0625.0039.20-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0660.0068.290.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0640.0046.34-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0625.0045.04-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0067.700.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0675.0066.230.000.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0614.2930.86-0.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6739.60-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0040.20-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0666.6748.060.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.060.0044.27-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.060.0027.48-0.00-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0660.0053.140.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0660.0037.710.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.060.0030.72-0.00-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0078.390.000.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.0660.0035.980.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0666.6758.150.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0666.6760.700.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0650.0065.590.000.02
TempleAmer0.000.0660.0050.480.000.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0055.660.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.060.0028.00-0.00-0.03
VMISC0.000.0625.0035.97-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0062.000.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.06100.0078.880.000.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0616.6732.00-0.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.060.0019.53-0.00-0.04
DrexelCAA0.000.0620.0036.57-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0020.98-0.00-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.000.0680.0046.880.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0680.0074.090.000.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.0680.0067.100.000.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0040.56-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0035.47-0.00-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0666.6747.100.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0073.330.000.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.0333.3334.34-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0064.460.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0340.0026.71-0.00-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0375.0056.110.000.00
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0076.220.000.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0366.6773.130.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0375.0039.180.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0325.0028.63-0.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.030.0052.73-0.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0069.210.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0333.3330.52-0.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0333.3345.53-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.000.0360.0053.400.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0333.3346.51-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0325.0049.53-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.030.0035.88-0.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0047.66-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0350.0052.540.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0333.3367.57-0.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0350.0042.750.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0375.0046.860.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0360.0050.240.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0325.0043.27-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0360.0055.000.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.03100.0059.990.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0333.3337.74-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0360.0059.160.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0380.0063.370.000.01
KansasB120.000.0375.0062.620.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0320.0035.95-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0380.0070.930.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0380.0063.470.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0340.0038.03-0.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0375.0065.610.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0325.0023.91-0.00-0.02
DukeACC0.000.03100.0083.320.000.02
La SalleA100.000.03100.0056.910.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.030.0044.60-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0350.0042.050.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0383.3369.110.000.01
RichmondA101.250.0350.0063.970.000.01
St. BonaventureA101.250.0375.0052.070.620.00
Stony BrookAE1.250.0360.0068.620.250.01
WagnerNEC1.250.030.0044.93-1.25-0.00