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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Jacksonville

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:291.0
Current RPI:291
Expected SOS:344
Current SOS:344
Current Record:13-15
Expected Record:13-15
Current Conf Record:5-10
Expected Conf Record:5-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-10
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:256
Expected OOC SOS:351



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-15291.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Jacksonville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Denver (207.0)SumA84-92W100%0.0
11-14Air Force (250.0)MWCA86-68L0%0.0
11-18Youngstown St. (251.0)HorzN79-54W100%0.0
11-19FIU (338.0)CUSAN75-78W100%0.0
11-20South Alabama (231.0)SBA71-58L0%0.0
11-26North Carolina A&T (350.0)MEACA49-66W100%0.0
11-30Milwaukee (256.0)HorzA72-67L0%0.0
12-5Bethune Cookman (346.0)MEACA66-76W100%0.0
12-7Eastern Kentucky (247.0)OVCH76-80L0%0.0
12-10Marist (276.0)MAACA64-85W100%0.0
12-17Florida A&M (349.0)MEACA72-75W100%0.0
12-21Davidson (93.0)A10A75-60L0%0.0
12-31South Carolina St. (299.0)MEACH89-85W100%0.0
1-7North Florida (217.0)ASunH64-80L0%0.0
1-12NJIT (290.0)ASunA81-82W100%0.0
1-14USC Upstate (229.0)ASunA73-66L0%0.0
1-19Lipscomb (189.0)ASunH95-112L0%0.0
1-21Kennesaw St. (259.0)ASunH71-81L0%0.0
1-25Stetson (328.0)ASunH103-92W100%0.0
1-28Florida Gulf Coast (85.0)ASunA78-56L0%0.0
1-30Stetson (328.0)ASunA86-89W100%0.0
2-4Florida Gulf Coast (85.0)ASunH57-67L0%0.0
2-9USC Upstate (229.0)ASunH67-70L0%0.0
2-11NJIT (290.0)ASunH76-73W100%0.0
2-16Kennesaw St. (259.0)ASunA78-79W100%0.0
2-18Lipscomb (189.0)ASunA81-69L0%0.0
2-23North Florida (217.0)ASunA73-69L0%0.0
2-27North Florida (217.0)ASunA77-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Jacksonville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Jacksonville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Jacksonville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
JacksonvilleASun26.3826.3852.0852.081.101.10
North FloridaASun6.246.2429.6329.63-2.54-2.54
Florida Gulf CoastASun4.604.6075.0075.002.302.30
Kennesaw St.ASun4.584.5839.2939.29-0.98-0.98
StetsonASun4.574.5729.6329.63-1.86-1.86
LipscombASun4.514.5153.5753.570.320.32
NJITASun4.424.4233.3333.33-1.47-1.47
USC UpstateASun4.414.4142.3142.31-0.68-0.68
Florida A&MMEAC2.092.0918.5218.52-1.31-1.31
FIUCUSA2.052.0517.8617.86-1.32-1.32
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.032.0327.5927.59-0.91-0.91
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.941.943.453.45-1.80-1.80
South AlabamaSB1.941.9437.9337.93-0.47-0.47
South Carolina St.MEAC1.911.9132.1432.14-0.68-0.68
Air ForceMWC1.911.9130.0030.00-0.76-0.76
Youngstown St.Horz1.901.9035.4835.48-0.55-0.55
DenverSum1.841.8455.1755.170.190.19
MilwaukeeHorz1.841.8427.2727.27-0.84-0.84
DavidsonA101.791.7951.6151.610.060.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.791.7932.1432.14-0.64-0.64
MaristMAAC1.791.7925.8125.81-0.86-0.86
Norfolk St.MEAC0.240.2448.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.240.2453.3353.330.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.210.2126.6726.67-0.10-0.10
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.210.2137.5037.50-0.05-0.05
BelmontOVC0.210.2177.7877.780.110.11
Wright St.Horz0.200.2060.0060.000.040.04
AuburnSEC0.180.1856.2556.250.020.02
HowardMEAC0.180.1825.0025.00-0.09-0.09
Coppin St.MEAC0.180.1823.3323.33-0.10-0.10
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.180.1873.3373.330.080.08
Morehead St.OVC0.180.1842.8642.86-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.180.1853.5753.570.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.170.1726.6726.67-0.08-0.08
Northern KentuckyHorz0.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.150.1544.8344.83-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.150.1540.7440.74-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.150.1545.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
FloridaSEC0.150.1575.0075.000.070.07
RiderMAAC0.150.1554.5554.550.010.01
OaklandHorz0.140.1473.3373.330.060.06
DetroitHorz0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.130.1374.1974.190.070.07
AlabamaSEC0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
CampbellBSth0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.130.1329.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
The CitadelSC0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
CharlotteCUSA0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Fort WayneSum0.120.1257.1457.140.020.02
IowaB100.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Miami FLACC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
SyracuseACC0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
IonaMAAC0.120.1264.7164.710.030.03
MassachusettsA100.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
FordhamA100.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
SienaMAAC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
Green BayHorz0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.090.0913.3313.33-0.07-0.07
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0917.8617.86-0.06-0.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
SamfordSC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0987.8887.880.070.07
UCFAmer0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
IUPUISum0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
BrownIvy0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0967.8667.860.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.090.0967.8667.860.030.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
PacificWCC0.090.0931.2531.25-0.03-0.03
MercerSC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
MissouriSEC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
San Jose St.MWC0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.090.0931.2531.25-0.03-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0923.0823.08-0.05-0.05
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0830.3030.30-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
UMKCWAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0670.0070.000.030.03
Kent St.MAC0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
LafayettePat0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.060.0655.8855.880.010.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
PurdueB100.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
RadfordBSth0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
TempleAmer0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0644.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
BaylorB120.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
Coastal CarolinaSB0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Little RockSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.060.0668.5768.570.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
TroySB0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
UMBCAE0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
ClemsonACC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Saint LouisA100.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
NevadaMWC0.060.0682.3582.350.040.04
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
AkronMAC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
DaytonA100.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
George WashingtonA100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
VCUA100.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.020.02
ElonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
FurmanSC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
ArmyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0377.1477.140.020.02
DuquesneA100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
DePaulBE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00