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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Jacksonville

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:204.9
Current RPI:180
Expected SOS:336
Current SOS:311
Current Record:4-3
Expected Record:16-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-6
Current OOC Record:4-3
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:187
Expected OOC SOS:346



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-5106.20.11%
21-6114.80.71%
20-7130.32.47%
19-8148.27.10%
18-9166.512.85%
17-10184.417.71%
16-11205.419.95%
15-12224.817.11%
14-13244.811.59%
13-14264.26.65%
12-15282.52.52%
11-16296.40.97%
10-17310.90.20%
9-18320.50.04%
8-19336.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Jacksonville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Denver (246.0)SumA84-92W100%0.0
11-14Air Force (167.3)MWCA86-68L0%0.0
11-18Youngstown St. (237.3)HorzN79-54W100%0.0
11-19FIU (262.2)CUSAN75-78W100%0.0
11-20South Alabama (143.9)SBA71-58L0%0.0
11-26North Carolina A&T (343.5)MEACA49-66W100%0.0
11-30Milwaukee (255.6)HorzA72-67L0%0.0
12-5Bethune Cookman (339.3)MEACA0-077%8.8
12-7Eastern Kentucky (157.0)OVCH0-055%1.6
12-10Marist (244.3)MAACA0-055%1.6
12-17Florida A&M (345.5)MEACA0-081%10.6
12-21Davidson (68.7)A10A0-012%-14.1
12-31South Carolina St. (307.5)MEACH0-089%15.0
1-7North Florida (255.3)ASunH0-070%6.4
1-12NJIT (197.6)ASunA0-041%-2.7
1-14USC Upstate (263.9)ASunA0-058%2.4
1-19Lipscomb (293.7)ASunH0-072%7.1
1-21Kennesaw St. (309.0)ASunH0-081%10.4
1-25Stetson (319.1)ASunH0-083%11.7
1-28Florida Gulf Coast (85.8)ASunA0-018%-10.9
1-30Stetson (319.1)ASunA0-067%5.4
2-4Florida Gulf Coast (85.8)ASunH0-035%-4.7
2-9USC Upstate (263.9)ASunH0-077%8.7
2-11NJIT (197.6)ASunH0-062%3.6
2-16Kennesaw St. (309.0)ASunA0-063%4.1
2-18Lipscomb (293.7)ASunA0-053%0.8
2-23North Florida (255.3)ASunA0-050%0.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Jacksonville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Jacksonville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Jacksonville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
JacksonvilleASun28.5726.3672.7365.3712.998.10
StetsonASun1.024.6828.5728.52-0.44-2.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.004.6125.0030.41-0.00-1.81
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.004.5457.1471.820.001.98
North FloridaASun0.004.5412.5034.39-0.00-1.42
LipscombASun0.004.5112.5032.70-0.00-1.56
NJITASun0.004.5150.0049.860.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.004.5144.4441.98-0.00-0.72
Florida A&MMEAC0.512.150.0022.72-0.51-1.17
FIUCUSA8.162.1216.6737.30-5.44-0.54
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.002.1214.2932.52-0.00-0.74
North Carolina A&TMEAC7.142.020.0021.49-7.14-1.15
South AlabamaSB8.162.0166.6756.472.720.26
Air ForceMWC7.141.9850.0046.660.00-0.13
Youngstown St.Horz8.161.9850.0039.540.00-0.41
South Carolina St.MEAC0.001.950.0027.76-0.00-0.87
DenverSum7.141.9250.0046.610.00-0.13
MilwaukeeHorz7.141.9216.6730.30-4.76-0.75
DavidsonA100.001.8571.4362.280.000.45
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.001.8550.0051.060.000.04
MaristMAAC0.001.8544.4434.31-0.00-0.58
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.2742.8643.60-0.00-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.230.0035.95-0.00-0.07
BelmontOVC0.000.2350.0064.350.000.07
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.200.0017.13-0.00-0.13
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.2012.5037.99-0.00-0.05
HowardMEAC0.000.2016.6744.34-0.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.200.0034.47-0.00-0.06
Morehead St.OVC0.000.2016.6738.58-0.00-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.2085.7170.060.000.08
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.2025.0027.53-0.00-0.09
Wright St.Horz0.000.1962.5051.790.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.1785.7157.450.000.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.1714.2942.67-0.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1714.2938.26-0.00-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.170.0018.64-0.00-0.11
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.1757.1471.520.000.07
East CarolinaAmer1.020.1677.7849.900.57-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.1650.0060.620.000.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1628.5731.44-0.00-0.06
RiderMAAC0.000.1650.0048.810.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.1487.5075.240.000.07
AlabamaSEC0.000.1357.1451.790.000.00
CampbellBSth0.000.1342.8639.20-0.00-0.03
ColgatePat0.000.1312.5029.71-0.00-0.05
The CitadelSC0.000.1350.0030.350.00-0.05
South FloridaAmer0.000.1357.1433.230.00-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1371.4351.460.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1316.6730.34-0.00-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1350.0046.410.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1362.5067.390.000.05
IowaB100.000.1337.5037.74-0.00-0.03
FordhamA100.000.1350.0041.310.00-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.000.1371.4370.210.000.05
MassachusettsA100.000.1371.4358.600.000.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.1342.8650.06-0.000.00
SienaMAAC0.000.1337.5052.01-0.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.1357.1464.030.000.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1357.1450.420.000.00
DetroitHorz0.000.130.0021.22-0.00-0.07
Green BayHorz0.000.1342.8651.95-0.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1342.8645.44-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.1357.1453.990.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.1385.7177.150.000.07
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1385.7174.990.000.06
Miami FLACC0.000.1075.0066.100.000.03
SyracuseACC0.000.1071.4366.700.000.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.1042.8647.11-0.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.510.1050.0043.560.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1066.6761.550.000.02
La SalleA100.000.1066.6755.540.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1050.0071.020.000.04
Michigan St.B100.000.1055.5658.610.000.02
SamfordSC0.000.1062.5056.520.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.1085.7176.240.000.05
Austin PeayOVC0.000.1033.3336.74-0.00-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.000.1012.5029.15-0.00-0.04
MercerSC0.000.1042.8647.76-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.1057.1442.530.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.000.1042.8646.14-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.1050.0041.990.00-0.02
BrownIvy0.000.1055.5646.970.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.1022.2238.49-0.00-0.02
IUPUISum0.000.1037.5051.64-0.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.510.1087.5076.230.380.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.510.1057.1458.940.070.02
San Jose St.MWC0.510.1050.0041.490.00-0.02
UNLVMWC0.510.1062.5043.800.13-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.510.1037.5035.09-0.13-0.03
WyomingMWC0.510.1066.6754.050.170.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.510.0925.0039.59-0.26-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.090.0016.68-0.00-0.06
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0975.0070.620.000.04
Rhode IslandA100.000.0962.5069.130.000.04
CanisiusMAAC0.510.0937.5044.39-0.13-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0925.0034.40-0.00-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0925.0035.09-0.00-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.0785.7166.190.000.02
BaylorB120.000.07100.0076.590.000.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0742.8660.54-0.000.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0720.0037.65-0.00-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0733.3339.61-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0755.5647.890.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.070.0038.27-0.00-0.02
LSUSEC0.000.0771.4349.170.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0733.3354.32-0.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0733.3327.06-0.00-0.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0762.5052.330.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0757.1467.260.000.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0722.2221.23-0.00-0.04
ClemsonACC0.000.0771.4354.860.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.510.07100.0078.850.510.04
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0766.6766.180.000.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0712.5033.65-0.00-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0771.4373.040.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0787.5082.360.000.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0716.6739.78-0.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0757.1454.360.000.01
LafayettePat0.000.0733.3333.36-0.00-0.02
MichiganB100.000.0775.0066.460.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0787.5068.020.000.02
PurdueB100.000.0775.0075.340.000.03
RadfordBSth0.000.0728.5734.28-0.00-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0733.3339.94-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0728.5738.15-0.00-0.02
TempleAmer0.000.0775.0064.920.000.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0740.0041.12-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.0780.0054.540.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.510.0675.0070.180.260.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0675.0054.670.000.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.0637.5047.37-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC1.020.0671.4368.980.440.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0616.6729.80-0.00-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0675.0066.370.000.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.0642.8656.04-0.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.510.0657.1450.080.070.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0666.6740.030.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0655.5641.690.00-0.01
Little RockSB0.000.0666.6761.330.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0671.4354.860.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0642.8655.09-0.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0677.7871.970.000.03
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0022.31-0.00-0.04
RichmondA100.000.0650.0048.210.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0628.5723.78-0.00-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0660.0069.120.000.02
South DakotaSum0.000.0650.0046.020.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.510.0625.0020.78-0.26-0.04
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0043.390.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.0642.8636.19-0.00-0.02
UABCUSA0.000.0650.0059.920.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0620.0035.47-0.00-0.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0625.0029.54-0.00-0.03
VCUA100.000.0675.0073.060.000.03
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0671.4359.880.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0628.5736.95-0.00-0.02
FurmanSC0.000.0333.3356.24-0.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0089.330.000.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0342.8650.12-0.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.0340.0058.82-0.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0375.0086.710.000.03
WisconsinB100.000.0377.7876.040.000.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0342.8637.34-0.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0337.5031.23-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0337.5037.03-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0314.2931.35-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0362.5040.460.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0023.69-0.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.0342.8650.09-0.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0325.0038.83-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0375.0062.620.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0371.4360.540.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0371.4373.490.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.0344.4442.03-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.510.0371.4355.160.220.00
ElonCAA0.510.0371.4359.470.220.01
George MasonA100.000.0362.5046.900.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0357.1436.010.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.510.0325.0031.41-0.26-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0322.2226.33-0.00-0.02
KansasB120.000.0387.5075.860.000.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0371.4363.930.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0316.6729.81-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0387.5075.590.000.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0048.500.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.510.0360.0058.590.100.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0061.240.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0362.5058.450.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0387.5081.960.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0333.3330.44-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0316.6739.20-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.56-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.510.03100.0077.380.510.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0387.5068.610.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0371.4368.050.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0375.0071.470.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.510.0322.2241.71-0.28-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.510.030.0022.01-0.51-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0342.8645.30-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0342.8638.63-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0371.4370.390.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0387.5062.040.000.01
ToledoMAC0.510.0337.5047.91-0.13-0.00
UC DavisBW0.000.0350.0045.970.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0032.52-0.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.510.0371.4356.260.220.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0383.3377.100.000.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.510.0366.6757.300.170.00
Weber St.BSky0.510.0316.6749.65-0.34-0.00
DePaulBE0.510.0366.6735.430.17-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.510.0383.3379.850.340.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0371.4358.920.000.01
MemphisAmer0.510.0375.0055.500.260.00
MontanaBSky0.510.0325.0048.10-0.26-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0350.0062.380.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0383.3371.480.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.510.0350.0054.070.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0342.8661.11-0.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0020.55-0.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.0350.0041.990.00-0.00
DukeACC0.000.0388.8978.400.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0342.8658.58-0.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0362.5071.320.000.01