live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Jacksonville

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:282.0
Current RPI:282
Expected SOS:258
Current SOS:258
Current Record:10-18
Expected Record:10-18
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-8
Current OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:326
Expected OOC SOS:264



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-18282.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Jacksonville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Florida St. (54.0)ACCA91-67L0%0.0
11-16Gardner Webb (241.0)BSthA87-78L0%0.0
11-18Wake Forest (113.0)ACCA90-83L0%0.0
11-23Florida A&M (295.0)MEACH76-72W100%0.0
11-25Florida (1.0)SECH60-86L0%0.0
12-7Florida Atlantic (270.0)CUSAA83-63L0%0.0
12-17UCF (220.0)AmerA104-64L0%0.0
12-20Samford (313.0)SCH58-75L0%0.0
12-23South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACH61-47W100%0.0
12-30Mercer (81.0)ASunH49-86L0%0.0
1-1Kennesaw St. (324.0)ASunH86-66W100%0.0
1-4Northern Kentucky (310.0)ASunA73-66L0%0.0
1-6Lipscomb (209.0)ASunA85-88W100%0.0
1-9Stetson (333.0)ASunH88-75W100%0.0
1-11Florida Gulf Coast (146.0)ASunH76-69W100%0.0
1-17North Florida (189.0)ASunA86-82L0%0.0
1-23USC Upstate (163.0)ASunA79-69L0%0.0
1-25East Tennessee St. (206.0)ASunA76-75L0%0.0
1-30Lipscomb (209.0)ASunH76-88L0%0.0
2-1Northern Kentucky (310.0)ASunH95-77W100%0.0
2-6Florida Gulf Coast (146.0)ASunA100-71L0%0.0
2-8Stetson (333.0)ASunA73-68L0%0.0
2-14North Florida (189.0)ASunH74-79L0%0.0
2-20East Tennessee St. (206.0)ASunH91-86W100%0.0
2-22USC Upstate (163.0)ASunH88-82W100%0.0
2-27Kennesaw St. (324.0)ASunA69-71W100%0.0
3-1Mercer (81.0)ASunA69-55L0%0.0
3-4Mercer (81.0)ASunA85-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Jacksonville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Jacksonville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Jacksonville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
JacksonvilleASun26.4626.4633.9333.93-8.51-8.51
MercerASun6.416.4171.4371.432.752.75
Florida Gulf CoastASun4.834.8363.3363.331.291.29
East Tennessee St.ASun4.724.7253.3353.330.310.31
StetsonASun4.714.7120.6920.69-2.76-2.76
USC UpstateASun4.714.7155.1755.170.490.49
North FloridaASun4.654.6542.8642.86-0.66-0.66
LipscombASun4.614.6148.1548.15-0.17-0.17
Northern KentuckyASun4.564.5628.5728.57-1.96-1.96
Kennesaw St.ASun4.564.5614.8114.81-3.21-3.21
Florida A&MMEAC1.961.9641.3841.38-0.34-0.34
UCFAmer1.901.9035.7135.71-0.54-0.54
SamfordSC1.901.9031.0331.03-0.72-0.72
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.871.8724.1424.14-0.97-0.97
FloridaSEC1.871.8793.9493.941.651.65
Florida St.ACC1.871.8758.0658.060.300.30
South Carolina St.MEAC1.851.8525.9325.93-0.89-0.89
Wake ForestACC1.811.8150.0050.000.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth1.791.7948.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.300.3036.6736.67-0.08-0.08
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.270.2716.6716.67-0.18-0.18
FIUCUSA0.260.2646.4346.43-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.210.2181.8281.820.130.13
South FloridaAmer0.200.2037.5037.50-0.05-0.05
ValparaisoHorz0.200.2050.0050.000.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.200.2035.7135.71-0.06-0.06
ClemsonACC0.200.2062.5062.500.050.05
ChattanoogaSC0.180.1851.7251.720.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.180.1820.6920.69-0.10-0.10
Mississippi St.SEC0.170.1742.4242.42-0.03-0.03
WinthropBSth0.170.1756.6756.670.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.170.1748.4848.48-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
IndianaB100.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
FurmanSC0.150.1525.9325.93-0.07-0.07
Morehead St.OVC0.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.140.1441.1841.18-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
North CarolinaACC0.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
MarylandACC0.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
Notre DameACC0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.140.1470.5970.590.060.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.140.1461.7661.760.030.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.120.1283.8783.870.080.08
Georgia SouthernSC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
HamptonMEAC0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Kent St.MAC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.120.1213.7913.79-0.09-0.09
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DavidsonSC0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.120.1213.3313.33-0.09-0.09
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
MississippiSEC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
AlabamaSEC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.110.1182.3582.350.070.07
TempleAmer0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RutgersAmer0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SC0.090.0919.2319.23-0.05-0.05
ElonSC0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
WoffordSC0.090.0958.6258.620.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
MemphisAmer0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.090.0913.7913.79-0.06-0.06
VMIBSth0.090.0955.5655.560.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
OklahomaB120.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Seton HallBE0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
TexasB120.090.0969.7069.700.030.03
YaleIvy0.090.0951.8551.850.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
RadfordBSth0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0993.1093.100.070.07
Western KentuckySB0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.05-0.05
AuburnSEC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
PittsburghACC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0670.9770.970.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
IPFWSum0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
LouisvilleAmer0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
Murray St.OVC0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
SMUAmer0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0619.3519.35-0.04-0.04
MichiganB100.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Michigan St.B100.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
NavyPat0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
PurdueB100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Texas St.SB0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
UABCUSA0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0621.2121.21-0.03-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
XavierBE0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
HartfordAE0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
IonaMAAC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
KansasB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0386.2186.210.020.02
High PointBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0334.6234.62-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
MarquetteBE0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
ColgatePat0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
USCP120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0378.7978.790.020.02