Jacksonville

Conference:	ASun
Expected RPI:	285.8
Current RPI:	288
Expected SOS:	176
Current SOS:	162
Current Record:	4-19
Expected Record:	6-23
Current Conf Record:	2-10
Expected Conf Record:	4-14
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-8
Current OOC Record:	2-9
Expected OOC Record:	2-9
Expected OOC RPI:	239
Expected OOC SOS:	89

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
10-19	231.1	0.14%
9-20	250.8	2.02%
8-21	267.5	11.38%
7-22	280.9	30.78%
6-23	290.6	35.74%
5-24	298.2	17.58%
4-25	305.0	2.35%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Jacksonville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Florida St. (21.9)	ACC	A	79-67	L	0%	0.0
11-16	Savannah St. (214.3)	MEAC	A	73-70	L	0%	0.0
11-18	Samford (254.7)	SC	H	70-57	W	100%	0.0
11-21	Bethune Cookman (260.5)	MEAC	A	55-65	W	100%	0.0
11-25	Florida (14.9)	SEC	A	107-62	L	0%	0.0
11-28	Marquette (15.5)	BE	A	88-56	L	0%	0.0
12-3	North Florida (183.0)	ASun	A	80-58	L	0%	0.0
12-11	Furman (230.9)	SC	A	85-79	L	0%	0.0
12-15	Winthrop (269.0)	BSth	H	45-59	L	0%	0.0
12-18	Wofford (173.4)	SC	A	63-57	L	0%	0.0
12-22	UAB (140.0)	CUSA	A	70-65	L	0%	0.0
12-29	Alabama (30.4)	SEC	A	72-55	L	0%	0.0
1-2	Lipscomb (208.1)	ASun	H	71-77	L	0%	0.0
1-4	Belmont (70.5)	ASun	H	63-75	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Stetson (255.4)	ASun	A	73-61	L	0%	0.0
1-9	Florida Gulf Coast (206.9)	ASun	A	77-66	L	0%	0.0
1-14	East Tennessee St. (190.6)	ASun	H	58-72	L	0%	0.0
1-16	South Carolina Upstate (159.3)	ASun	H	77-74	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Kennesaw St. (317.6)	ASun	A	50-66	W	100%	0.0
1-23	Mercer (98.0)	ASun	A	75-65	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Belmont (70.5)	ASun	A	85-71	L	0%	0.0
1-30	Lipscomb (208.1)	ASun	A	82-68	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Florida Gulf Coast (206.9)	ASun	H	55-65	L	0%	0.0
2-6	Stetson (255.4)	ASun	H	0-0		57%	1.9
2-11	South Carolina Upstate (159.3)	ASun	A	0-0		19%	-9.7
2-13	East Tennessee St. (190.6)	ASun	A	0-0		17%	-10.5
2-18	Mercer (98.0)	ASun	H	0-0		20%	-9.4
2-20	Kennesaw St. (317.6)	ASun	H	0-0		81%	9.6
2-24	North Florida (183.0)	ASun	H	0-0		45%	-1.3

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Jacksonville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Jacksonville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Jacksonville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Jacksonville	ASun	26.41	26.39	20.62	22.97	-15.52	-14.27
North Florida	ASun	3.14	4.52	43.48	44.48	-0.41	-0.50
Stetson	ASun	3.04	4.51	28.57	28.21	-1.30	-1.96
Mercer	ASun	3.01	4.46	69.57	70.31	1.18	1.81
Belmont	ASun	4.97	4.40	66.67	71.37	1.66	1.88
Kennesaw St.	ASun	2.90	4.40	9.09	11.83	-2.38	-3.36
Lipscomb	ASun	4.97	4.40	38.10	39.66	-1.18	-0.91
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	2.80	4.40	57.14	57.23	0.40	0.64
East Tennessee St.	ASun	2.80	4.39	50.00	49.88	0.00	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	4.92	4.39	45.00	44.97	-0.49	-0.44
Florida	SEC	2.37	1.93	81.82	76.89	1.51	1.04
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	2.32	1.90	40.00	44.31	-0.46	-0.22
Savannah St.	MEAC	2.32	1.90	50.00	56.36	0.00	0.24
Furman	SC	2.27	1.87	45.00	46.86	-0.23	-0.12
Samford	SC	2.27	1.84	35.00	36.61	-0.68	-0.49
Wofford	SC	2.28	1.82	57.14	56.42	0.33	0.23
Florida St.	ACC	2.27	1.81	71.43	70.73	0.97	0.75
Alabama	SEC	2.22	1.81	66.67	68.03	0.74	0.65
Marquette	BE	2.22	1.75	78.26	75.18	1.26	0.88
UAB	CUSA	2.22	1.75	38.10	37.67	-0.53	-0.43
Winthrop	BSth	2.22	1.75	31.82	32.18	-0.81	-0.62
Appalachian St.	SC	0.31	0.34	35.00	39.29	-0.09	-0.07
Chattanooga	SC	0.25	0.27	27.27	35.02	-0.11	-0.08
Auburn	SEC	0.19	0.26	56.52	48.81	0.03	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.25	0.24	19.05	22.37	-0.15	-0.13
Georgia	SEC	0.29	0.23	45.45	41.20	-0.03	-0.04
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.20	0.21	55.00	60.33	0.02	0.04
Troy	SB	0.25	0.21	28.57	30.17	-0.11	-0.08
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.25	0.21	60.87	59.76	0.05	0.04
Davidson	SC	0.20	0.19	76.19	76.76	0.11	0.10
Georgia Southern	SC	0.20	0.19	40.00	41.30	-0.04	-0.03
Western Carolina	SC	0.20	0.19	34.78	37.24	-0.06	-0.05
Clemson	ACC	0.20	0.18	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.20	0.18	71.43	66.60	0.09	0.06
Miami FL	ACC	0.14	0.18	65.00	60.02	0.04	0.04
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.15	0.18	56.52	55.20	0.02	0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.24	0.18	69.57	71.51	0.09	0.08
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.20	0.18	10.00	14.93	-0.16	-0.12
Arkansas	SEC	0.15	0.17	69.57	65.15	0.06	0.05
Austin Peay	OVC	0.19	0.17	33.33	35.97	-0.06	-0.05
Marshall	CUSA	0.29	0.17	59.09	59.72	0.05	0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.24	0.17	40.91	39.56	-0.04	-0.04
College of Charleston	SC	0.25	0.16	58.33	59.98	0.04	0.03
The Citadel	SC	0.25	0.16	9.52	11.44	-0.21	-0.12
NC Greensboro	SC	0.15	0.15	34.78	33.46	-0.05	-0.05
Maryland	ACC	0.25	0.15	59.09	50.82	0.05	0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.24	0.15	34.78	38.77	-0.07	-0.03
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.14	0.15	4.35	9.66	-0.13	-0.12
Tennessee	SEC	0.10	0.15	45.45	44.66	-0.01	-0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.14	0.14	86.96	85.46	0.10	0.10
Wisconsin	B10	0.19	0.14	75.00	73.97	0.10	0.07
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.20	0.14	39.13	42.12	-0.04	-0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.24	0.14	83.33	84.76	0.16	0.10
Elon	SC	0.10	0.13	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.10	0.12	40.00	40.18	-0.02	-0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.10	0.12	68.18	67.64	0.04	0.04
Toledo	MAC	0.15	0.12	38.10	40.81	-0.04	-0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.10	0.12	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.10	0.12	34.78	38.42	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.10	0.12	33.33	37.25	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.12	38.89	43.93	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.10	0.12	19.05	24.61	-0.06	-0.06
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.10	0.12	18.18	21.13	-0.06	-0.07
Kentucky	SEC	0.10	0.12	95.83	92.57	0.09	0.10
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.14	0.12	68.18	69.68	0.05	0.05
Duke	ACC	0.14	0.11	86.36	83.09	0.10	0.08
Missouri	B12	0.09	0.11	91.30	87.18	0.08	0.09
Georgetown	BE	0.15	0.11	80.95	77.38	0.09	0.06
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.14	0.11	59.09	57.28	0.03	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.14	0.11	63.64	56.71	0.04	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.14	0.11	69.57	65.87	0.06	0.04
Presbyterian	BSth	0.10	0.09	40.91	43.66	-0.02	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.14	0.09	31.82	32.75	-0.05	-0.03
Indiana	B10	0.10	0.09	75.00	75.78	0.05	0.05
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.15	0.09	35.00	40.78	-0.04	-0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.10	0.09	38.10	37.86	-0.02	-0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.10	0.09	26.32	29.79	-0.05	-0.04
Illinois St.	MVC	0.15	0.09	62.50	62.06	0.04	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.14	0.09	100.00	94.55	0.14	0.08
Virginia	ACC	0.10	0.09	81.82	76.80	0.06	0.05
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.09	60.87	60.96	0.02	0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.10	0.09	90.91	87.74	0.08	0.07
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.09	60.87	59.05	0.01	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.09	0.09	72.73	68.28	0.04	0.03
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	19.05	25.52	-0.06	-0.04
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.10	0.09	78.26	72.34	0.05	0.04
Seton Hall	BE	0.09	0.09	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.09	0.09	41.67	40.61	-0.02	-0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.06	56.00	55.65	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.09	0.06	27.27	27.21	-0.04	-0.03
Longwood	ind	0.10	0.06	30.00	27.84	-0.04	-0.03
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.10	0.06	77.27	73.45	0.05	0.03
Maine	AE	0.10	0.06	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.10	0.06	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.00
Radford	BSth	0.09	0.06	8.70	13.10	-0.08	-0.05
Texas Christian	MWC	0.10	0.06	57.14	49.54	0.01	-0.00
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.09	0.06	45.00	44.15	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	42.11	49.81	-0.01	-0.00
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.06	44.44	41.71	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.06	36.36	38.48	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.06	25.00	28.52	-0.03	-0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.06	18.18	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois	B10	0.09	0.06	72.73	64.43	0.04	0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.09	0.06	73.91	68.43	0.05	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.06	20.00	19.96	-0.03	-0.04
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.09	0.06	44.00	45.89	-0.01	-0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.09	0.06	26.32	29.71	-0.04	-0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.06	85.71	82.18	0.04	0.04
Texas St.	Slnd	0.05	0.06	22.22	27.62	-0.03	-0.03
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.06	61.90	58.59	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.06	17.65	27.10	-0.06	-0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.10	0.06	52.38	52.87	0.00	0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.10	0.06	80.00	78.06	0.06	0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.10	0.06	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.10	0.06	82.61	80.42	0.06	0.04
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.10	0.06	26.09	28.60	-0.05	-0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.09	0.06	30.00	34.15	-0.04	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.06	54.17	57.20	0.00	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.06	9.52	13.19	-0.04	-0.04
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.06	37.50	41.54	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.06	81.82	77.20	0.03	0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.06	73.91	75.49	0.02	0.03
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.09	0.06	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.00
Towson	CAA	0.09	0.06	4.00	5.26	-0.09	-0.05
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.06	68.18	63.99	0.02	0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.00	0.06	69.57	65.47	0.00	0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.06	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.09	0.06	95.83	92.01	0.08	0.05
Villanova	BE	0.09	0.06	45.45	46.08	-0.01	-0.00
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.03	55.00	54.80	0.01	0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.03	66.67	69.69	0.02	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.03	19.05	21.29	-0.03	-0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.03	39.13	36.10	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.05	0.03	76.19	75.94	0.03	0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.05	0.03	57.14	60.75	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.03	34.78	34.48	-0.02	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.00	0.03	72.22	71.97	0.00	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.03	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.03	79.17	78.10	0.03	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.03	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	40.91	42.96	-0.01	-0.00
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.03	90.91	83.85	0.04	0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.03	24.00	24.86	-0.03	-0.01
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.03	87.50	85.41	0.04	0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	35.29	39.85	-0.02	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.03	34.78	32.08	-0.02	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.03	47.62	44.63	-0.00	-0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.03	71.43	69.05	0.02	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.03	34.78	35.20	-0.02	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	25.00	37.58	-0.03	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.03	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.00
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	68.29	0.02	0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.03	43.48	43.31	-0.01	-0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.00	0.03	30.43	26.44	-0.00	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.03	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.03	90.48	87.91	0.04	0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.03	59.09	57.76	0.01	0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.58	0.02	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.03	76.19	72.91	0.03	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.96	83.16	0.04	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.00	0.03	70.83	64.42	0.00	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.03	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.03	45.45	40.70	-0.00	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.03	47.37	52.87	-0.00	0.00
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.03	65.22	60.58	0.02	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.00	0.03	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.00
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.03	78.26	72.66	0.03	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.03	30.00	31.54	-0.02	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	62.65	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.03	60.87	58.16	0.01	0.00
Providence	BE	0.05	0.03	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.03	37.50	38.52	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.03	54.55	48.60	0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.03	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.03	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.00
Washington	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	66.54	0.02	0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.00	0.03	65.22	65.17	0.00	0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.03	35.00	39.38	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.03	56.52	57.72	0.01	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.03	72.22	63.19	0.02	0.01