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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Minnesota

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:20.0
Current RPI:20
Expected SOS:23
Current SOS:23
Current Record:24-9
Expected Record:24-9
Current Conf Record:12-8
Expected Conf Record:12-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:6
Expected OOC SOS:27



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-920.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Minnesota.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Louisiana Lafayette (114.0)SBH86-74W100%0.0
11-14UT Arlington (45.0)SBH84-67W100%0.0
11-16Mount St. Mary's (151.0)NECH80-56W100%0.0
11-18St. John's (140.0)BEH92-86W100%0.0
11-22Arkansas (28.0)SECH85-71W100%0.0
11-25Southern Illinois (145.0)MVCH57-45W100%0.0
11-28Florida St. (14.0)ACCA75-67L0%0.0
12-3Vanderbilt (44.0)SECN56-52W100%0.0
12-6NJIT (290.0)ASunH74-68W100%0.0
12-9Georgia Southern (121.0)SBH86-49W100%0.0
12-11Northern Illinois (241.0)MACH77-57W100%0.0
12-14LIU Brooklyn (224.0)NECH76-66W100%0.0
12-23Arkansas St. (119.0)SBH82-75W100%0.0
12-27Michigan St. (51.0)B10H74-75L0%0.0
1-1Purdue (19.0)B10A82-91W100%0.0
1-5Northwestern (50.0)B10A66-70W100%0.0
1-8Ohio St. (90.0)B10H78-68W100%0.0
1-11Michigan St. (51.0)B10A65-47L0%0.0
1-14Penn St. (101.0)B10A52-50L0%0.0
1-21Wisconsin (35.0)B10H76-78L0%0.0
1-25Ohio St. (90.0)B10A78-72L0%0.0
1-28Maryland (36.0)B10H78-85L0%0.0
2-4Illinois (62.0)B10A59-68W100%0.0
2-8Iowa (81.0)B10H101-89W100%0.0
2-11Rutgers (177.0)B10A63-72W100%0.0
2-15Indiana (79.0)B10H75-74W100%0.0
2-19Michigan (25.0)B10H83-78W100%0.0
2-22Maryland (36.0)B10A75-89W100%0.0
2-25Penn St. (101.0)B10H81-71W100%0.0
3-2Nebraska (107.0)B10H88-73W100%0.0
3-5Wisconsin (35.0)B10A66-49L0%0.0
3-10Michigan St. (51.0)B10N63-58W100%0.0
3-11Michigan (25.0)B10N77-84L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Minnesota's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Minnesota's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Minnesota.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MinnesotaB1026.1426.1470.0770.0710.5010.50
Michigan St.B105.155.1556.6756.670.690.69
MichiganB103.753.7569.7069.701.481.48
WisconsinB103.683.6871.8871.881.611.61
Penn St.B103.663.6645.1645.16-0.35-0.35
Ohio St.B103.663.6653.3353.330.240.24
MarylandB103.593.5975.8675.861.861.86
RutgersB102.212.2145.1645.16-0.21-0.21
PurdueB102.212.2180.6580.651.351.35
NebraskaB102.212.2137.9337.93-0.53-0.53
IllinoisB102.212.2156.6756.670.290.29
IndianaB102.202.2056.2556.250.280.28
NorthwesternB102.192.1969.7069.700.860.86
IowaB102.132.1358.0658.060.340.34
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.681.6857.5857.580.250.25
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.661.6663.3363.330.440.44
UT ArlingtonSB1.661.6676.6776.670.880.88
St. John'sBE1.651.6543.7543.75-0.21-0.21
ArkansasSEC1.651.6575.7675.760.850.85
Arkansas St.SB1.611.6163.3363.330.430.43
Georgia SouthernSB1.611.6155.1755.170.170.17
LIU BrooklynNEC1.581.5863.3363.330.420.42
VanderbiltSEC1.581.5857.5857.580.240.24
Southern IllinoisMVC1.561.5651.6151.610.050.05
Florida St.ACC1.541.5475.0075.000.770.77
NJITASun1.541.5432.1432.14-0.55-0.55
Northern IllinoisMAC1.521.5242.8642.86-0.22-0.22
Georgia St.SB0.220.2260.0060.000.040.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.220.2222.5822.58-0.12-0.12
TroySB0.200.2058.8258.820.030.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.200.2045.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.200.2076.6776.670.100.10
GeorgetownBE0.190.1943.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.170.1725.0025.00-0.09-0.09
South AlabamaSB0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Little RockSB0.170.1743.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.170.1758.0658.060.030.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.160.1634.4834.48-0.05-0.05
DukeACC0.160.1677.1477.140.090.09
KentuckySEC0.160.1685.2985.290.110.11
MarquetteBE0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
St. Francis PANEC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.140.1442.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.140.1473.5373.530.070.07
FloridaSEC0.130.1375.0075.000.070.07
Kennesaw St.ASun0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.120.1220.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Wichita St.MVC0.120.1287.8887.880.090.09
Youngstown St.Horz0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
UCLAP120.120.1287.8887.880.090.09
CreightonBE0.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
BryantNEC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.1121.8821.88-0.06-0.06
ButlerBE0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
TexasB120.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
VirginiaACC0.090.0968.7568.750.040.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.0910.0010.00-0.07-0.07
WagnerNEC0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.090.0975.0075.000.050.05
ProvidenceBE0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Seton HallBE0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
VillanovaBE0.090.0991.1891.180.080.08
HowardMEAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
DePaulBE0.090.0928.1228.12-0.04-0.04
MissouriSEC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
North CarolinaACC0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
SyracuseACC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
IUPUISum0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Kent St.MAC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.070.0780.0080.000.040.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
ColgatePat0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
ClemsonACC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
FordhamA100.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0781.2581.250.040.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
DaytonA100.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0717.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Miami FLACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
ArizonaP120.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
BaylorB120.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
George WashingtonA100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
OaklandHorz0.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Iowa St.B120.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
George MasonA100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0710.3410.34-0.05-0.05
LSUSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
FIUCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
TempleAmer0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
NavyPat0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
LehighPat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
DuquesneA100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
BucknellPat0.040.0476.4776.470.020.02
Green BayHorz0.040.0455.1755.170.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
OklahomaB120.040.0435.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.040.0435.4835.48-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.040.0463.3363.330.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.040.0437.5037.50-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.040.0488.2488.240.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
IdahoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
MercerSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0232.0032.00-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0287.5087.500.020.02
TCUB120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Arizona St.P120.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
Saint LouisA100.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
SamfordSC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
High PointBSth0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
UMBCAE0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00