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Through games of Feb 4, 2016.


Minnesota

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:237.3
Current RPI:223
Expected SOS:78
Current SOS:59
Current Record:6-17
Expected Record:8-22
Current Conf Record:0-11
Expected Conf Record:2-16
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:234
Expected OOC SOS:200



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-18188.30.07%
11-19200.01.58%
10-20213.510.65%
9-21227.130.51%
8-22241.937.47%
7-23258.717.80%
6-24272.81.91%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Minnesota.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13UMKC (259.1)WACH76-58W100%0.0
11-15Louisiana Monroe (182.5)SBH67-56W100%0.0
11-19Temple (91.3)AmerN70-75L0%0.0
11-20Missouri St. (230.2)MVCN69-74W100%0.0
11-22Texas Tech (61.9)B12N81-68L0%0.0
11-27Nebraska Omaha (121.0)SumH93-90W100%0.0
11-30Clemson (90.8)ACCH89-83W100%0.0
12-5South Dakota (198.6)SumH81-85L0%0.0
12-8South Dakota St. (42.5)SumH70-84L0%0.0
12-12Oklahoma St. (134.1)B12N60-62L0%0.0
12-16Chicago St. (343.1)WACH70-52W100%0.0
12-23Milwaukee (158.6)HorzH65-74L0%0.0
12-30Ohio St. (97.8)B10A78-63L0%0.0
1-2Michigan St. (19.2)B10H61-69L0%0.0
1-5Penn St. (143.9)B10A86-77L0%0.0
1-9Northwestern (114.6)B10H52-77L0%0.0
1-12Nebraska (148.5)B10A84-59L0%0.0
1-16Indiana (31.2)B10H63-70L0%0.0
1-20Michigan (41.1)B10A74-69L0%0.0
1-23Illinois (158.8)B10H71-76L0%0.0
1-27Purdue (14.5)B10H64-68L0%0.0
1-30Indiana (31.2)B10A74-68L0%0.0
2-4Northwestern (114.6)B10A82-58L0%0.0
2-10Michigan (41.1)B10H0-017%-10.5
2-14Iowa (7.3)B10A0-02%-21.5
2-18Maryland (8.3)B10H0-012%-12.9
2-23Rutgers (278.9)B10H0-083%10.6
2-28Illinois (158.8)B10A0-028%-6.2
3-2Wisconsin (61.5)B10H0-027%-6.6
3-5Rutgers (278.9)B10A0-064%3.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Minnesota's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Minnesota's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Minnesota.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MinnesotaB1026.3126.1118.3521.38-16.66-14.94
IllinoisB102.653.9945.4541.66-0.24-0.67
RutgersB100.433.9322.7320.28-0.23-2.34
NorthwesternB104.683.9163.6460.971.280.86
IndianaB104.633.9080.9575.802.862.01
MichiganB102.503.8871.4366.291.071.26
WisconsinB100.622.3760.8755.340.130.25
IowaB100.482.3581.8279.290.301.38
Penn St.B102.562.3545.4541.77-0.23-0.39
Ohio St.B102.552.3556.5252.600.330.12
NebraskaB102.552.3550.0049.940.00-0.00
MarylandB100.462.3286.9681.540.341.46
PurdueB102.412.2981.8277.511.531.26
Michigan St.B102.412.2981.8280.761.531.41
South DakotaSum2.481.9036.3637.32-0.68-0.48
UMKCWAC2.421.8731.5836.24-0.89-0.51
South Dakota St.Sum2.381.8475.0075.331.190.93
Chicago St.WAC2.371.844.768.20-2.14-1.54
Nebraska OmahaSum2.371.8261.9061.670.570.42
Oklahoma St.B122.331.7847.6243.93-0.11-0.22
Texas TechB122.281.7560.0052.420.460.08
MilwaukeeHorz2.221.7260.0060.700.440.37
ClemsonACC2.171.7266.6764.480.720.50
Louisiana MonroeSB2.221.6942.1146.59-0.35-0.12
Missouri St.MVC2.221.6942.8639.38-0.32-0.36
TempleAmer2.171.6960.0056.960.430.24
Western IllinoisSum0.250.2627.7829.23-0.11-0.11
Oral RobertsSum0.250.2340.9143.01-0.04-0.03
IUPUISum0.250.2341.6740.25-0.04-0.05
IPFWSum0.290.2373.9170.210.140.09
North Dakota St.Sum0.200.2361.9060.410.050.05
Iowa St.B120.150.2272.7368.840.070.08
DenverSum0.250.2152.1748.790.01-0.00
Notre DameACC0.190.1968.1863.710.070.05
ConnecticutAmer0.150.1772.7372.460.070.07
TexasB120.150.1668.1861.760.050.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.150.1581.8281.000.100.10
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.210.1565.0067.520.060.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.150.1431.8233.76-0.05-0.05
TCUB120.150.1445.4537.84-0.01-0.03
Kansas St.B120.150.1459.0955.560.030.02
West VirginiaB120.160.1481.8278.720.100.08
MissouriSEC0.190.1436.3630.98-0.05-0.05
North CarolinaACC0.190.1486.3680.670.140.08
Wake ForestACC0.140.1445.4542.13-0.01-0.02
CreightonBE0.140.1460.8759.050.030.02
KansasB120.150.1480.9577.010.090.07
OklahomaB120.100.1490.4884.910.080.10
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.1263.6468.200.030.05
SeattleWAC0.150.1245.0042.81-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.100.1215.0015.65-0.07-0.08
Utah ValleyWAC0.100.1235.0035.36-0.03-0.04
DrakeMVC0.100.1222.7324.84-0.06-0.06
ValparaisoHorz0.150.1280.9583.030.090.08
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.1222.7323.38-0.06-0.06
Illinois St.MVC0.150.1252.1747.620.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.100.1157.1457.880.010.02
OaklandHorz0.150.1166.6767.310.050.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.100.1130.0032.46-0.04-0.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.115.267.23-0.09-0.10
TulsaAmer0.150.1163.6459.930.040.02
DePaulBE0.190.1136.3634.96-0.05-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.150.1110.0014.87-0.12-0.08
BaylorB120.150.1176.1967.340.080.04
Boston CollegeACC0.090.1131.8226.63-0.03-0.05
St. John'sBE0.090.1127.2724.41-0.04-0.06
UMass LowellAE0.090.1133.3332.89-0.03-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.200.1121.7424.61-0.11-0.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.160.0942.8641.75-0.02-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.150.0981.8277.490.100.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.160.0945.4547.97-0.01-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.150.0954.5555.190.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.140.0966.6760.120.050.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.0955.5650.840.010.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.110.0990.0086.110.080.06
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0976.1979.640.030.05
MarquetteBE0.050.0865.2256.540.020.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.0865.0068.740.030.03
HoustonAmer0.110.0872.7368.010.050.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.140.0838.1042.99-0.03-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.140.0838.8943.23-0.03-0.01
ButlerBE0.150.0868.1866.480.050.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0852.3853.800.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.100.0868.1863.240.040.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0852.1749.340.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.100.0890.4885.540.080.06
ChattanoogaSC0.100.0885.7184.560.070.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.140.0818.1822.84-0.09-0.04
UNLVMWC0.140.0852.3857.440.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.150.0873.9173.090.070.04
George WashingtonA100.050.0877.2771.670.030.04
HowardMEAC0.050.0840.0042.58-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.100.0859.0958.570.020.01
VirginiaACC0.090.0881.8276.020.060.04
DukeACC0.140.0872.7369.900.070.03
Virginia TechACC0.090.0852.1747.260.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.140.0868.1867.800.050.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.0817.3921.76-0.09-0.05
ProvidenceBE0.090.0878.2671.960.050.04
USC UpstateASun0.100.0623.8125.04-0.05-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.100.0640.0049.72-0.02-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.100.0668.4271.820.040.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.0645.0049.60-0.01-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0627.2730.42-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0645.0041.83-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.100.068.709.78-0.08-0.05
DetroitHorz0.050.0645.0044.39-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0673.9176.040.020.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0636.8437.31-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0661.1158.310.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0654.5555.310.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.0657.8961.910.020.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0640.9139.23-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0652.1754.150.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.050.0635.0034.92-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0675.0073.480.020.03
Texas St.SB0.050.0641.1840.27-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0620.0023.76-0.03-0.03
ColoradoP120.100.0672.7366.980.040.02
CanisiusMAAC0.100.0643.4845.72-0.01-0.00
DuquesneA100.100.0666.6758.770.030.01
Kent St.MAC0.100.0666.6761.680.030.01
BryantNEC0.050.0626.0927.58-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0616.6724.28-0.00-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0613.6413.79-0.00-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0636.3642.18-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.100.0645.4541.98-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.050.0654.5553.030.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0654.5552.770.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0678.2680.340.000.03
Seton HallBE0.000.0672.7368.660.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0620.8320.11-0.03-0.03
UtahP120.100.0672.7368.550.050.02
XavierBE0.050.0690.9184.430.040.04
UCFAmer0.000.0655.0047.190.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0556.5253.440.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0527.2732.87-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.100.0580.9575.610.060.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0541.6746.85-0.01-0.00
PittsburghACC0.100.0580.0070.310.060.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0554.5555.960.000.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0566.6762.710.020.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0586.3685.330.030.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0533.3334.18-0.03-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0534.7837.55-0.03-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.090.0568.4265.480.030.02
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0554.5553.540.010.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0522.7324.28-0.05-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.100.0542.8651.32-0.010.00
Loyola MDPat0.090.0531.8234.36-0.03-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0518.7533.16-0.06-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0552.3854.240.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0529.4138.46-0.04-0.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0568.1869.350.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.054.7614.00-0.04-0.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.090.0531.8235.17-0.03-0.02
UABCUSA0.050.0581.8278.320.030.03
VMISC0.090.0516.6718.98-0.06-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0525.0029.91-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.050.0570.5972.600.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0375.0071.270.030.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0326.3233.83-0.02-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0361.9058.220.010.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0326.0925.57-0.02-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0370.0068.920.020.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0338.1041.23-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0330.0029.98-0.02-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0363.1666.160.010.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0340.9140.45-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0330.0028.62-0.02-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0352.6352.150.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0350.0053.080.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0360.0061.320.010.01
LipscombASun0.050.0321.7427.63-0.03-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0347.6252.91-0.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0318.7526.10-0.03-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0344.4448.53-0.01-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0331.8232.32-0.02-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0314.2916.31-0.04-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.050.0347.3749.37-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0357.1452.310.010.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0350.0054.850.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.0315.7922.52-0.00-0.02
DaytonA100.000.0385.7181.210.000.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0322.7323.65-0.03-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0342.8647.26-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0360.0056.080.010.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0383.3380.130.030.02
High PointBSth0.050.0357.8961.470.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0321.0520.90-0.03-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0347.8350.56-0.000.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0342.8639.88-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0326.3236.92-0.02-0.01
PennIvy0.050.0331.2532.68-0.02-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0326.3227.35-0.02-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0368.7573.150.000.01
RichmondA100.050.0352.3853.670.000.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0339.1342.27-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0381.8277.420.030.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0347.3750.50-0.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0385.7176.020.040.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0347.6249.34-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0366.6765.400.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0347.6257.24-0.000.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0333.3332.42-0.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0314.2913.98-0.04-0.02
WoffordSC0.050.0338.1043.38-0.01-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0333.3333.55-0.02-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0342.8635.05-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0342.8637.22-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0322.7326.19-0.03-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0366.6766.030.020.01
BucknellPat0.050.0352.3856.750.000.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0314.2918.59-0.03-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0323.8128.31-0.02-0.01
George MasonA100.050.0336.3635.32-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0316.6720.72-0.03-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0353.3355.190.000.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0372.7369.690.020.01
LehighPat0.050.0330.0036.11-0.02-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0319.0522.38-0.03-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0375.0072.210.020.01
MercerSC0.050.0371.4370.590.020.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0363.6464.080.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0326.0930.34-0.02-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0344.4446.93-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0347.8348.71-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0354.5561.940.000.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0352.3853.610.000.00
SamfordSC0.050.0340.9143.36-0.01-0.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0365.2266.710.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0347.6252.95-0.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0310.5325.36-0.04-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0350.0048.260.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0373.6870.400.000.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0363.6457.320.010.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0359.0962.730.010.01
VCUA100.000.0377.2776.770.000.01
VermontAE0.050.0356.5258.380.010.00