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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Minnesota

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:34.0
Current RPI:34
Expected SOS:4
Current SOS:4
Current Record:20-12
Expected Record:20-12
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-0
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:4
Expected OOC SOS:13



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1234.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Minnesota.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9American (278.0)PatH72-36W100%0.0
11-12Toledo (193.0)MACH82-56W100%0.0
11-15Tennessee St. (105.0)OVCH72-43W100%0.0
11-18Richmond (92.0)A10H72-57W100%0.0
11-22Duke (1.0)ACCN71-89L0%0.0
11-23Memphis (12.0)CUSAN75-84W100%0.0
11-24Stanford (77.0)P12N63-66W100%0.0
11-27Florida St. (85.0)ACCA68-77W100%0.0
12-1North Florida (230.0)ASunH87-59W100%0.0
12-4South Dakota St. (62.0)SumH88-64W100%0.0
12-8Southern California (118.0)P12A57-71W100%0.0
12-11North Dakota St. (72.0)SumH70-57W100%0.0
12-22Lafayette (153.0)PatH75-50W100%0.0
12-31Michigan St. (9.0)B10H76-63W100%0.0
1-6Northwestern (168.0)B10H69-51W100%0.0
1-9Illinois (40.0)B10A67-84W100%0.0
1-12Indiana (8.0)B10A88-81L0%0.0
1-17Michigan (20.0)B10H75-83L0%0.0
1-23Northwestern (168.0)B10A55-48L0%0.0
1-26Wisconsin (32.0)B10A45-44L0%0.0
1-29Nebraska (104.0)B10H84-65W100%0.0
2-3Iowa (79.0)B10H62-59W100%0.0
2-6Michigan St. (9.0)B10A61-50L0%0.0
2-10Illinois (40.0)B10H53-57L0%0.0
2-14Wisconsin (32.0)B10H58-53W100%0.0
2-17Iowa (79.0)B10A72-51L0%0.0
2-20Ohio St. (10.0)B10A71-45L0%0.0
2-26Indiana (8.0)B10H77-73W100%0.0
3-2Penn St. (186.0)B10H73-44W100%0.0
3-6Nebraska (104.0)B10A53-51L0%0.0
3-9Purdue (136.0)B10A89-73L0%0.0
3-14Illinois (40.0)B10N51-49L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Minnesota's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Minnesota's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Minnesota.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MinnesotaB1026.2126.2161.2961.295.925.92
IllinoisB105.365.3663.3363.331.431.43
WisconsinB103.893.8968.7568.751.461.46
IowaB103.873.8764.5264.521.121.12
IndianaB103.873.8783.8783.872.622.62
NebraskaB103.873.8745.1645.16-0.37-0.37
NorthwesternB103.823.8240.0040.00-0.76-0.76
Michigan St.B103.813.8176.6776.672.032.03
Ohio St.B102.492.4978.1278.121.401.40
MichiganB102.352.3577.4277.421.291.29
PurdueB102.352.3545.1645.16-0.23-0.23
Penn St.B102.302.3033.3333.33-0.77-0.77
Southern CaliforniaP121.731.7345.1645.16-0.17-0.17
North Dakota St.Sum1.691.6973.3373.330.790.79
StanfordP121.681.6858.0658.060.270.27
South Dakota St.Sum1.661.6673.3373.330.780.78
LafayettePat1.641.6456.2556.250.200.20
Florida St.ACC1.611.6156.2556.250.200.20
AmericanPat1.611.6134.4834.48-0.50-0.50
DukeACC1.611.6183.8783.871.091.09
North FloridaASun1.611.6140.0040.00-0.32-0.32
MemphisCUSA1.591.5990.9190.911.301.30
Tennessee St.OVC1.591.5955.1755.170.160.16
RichmondA101.561.5658.0658.060.250.25
ToledoMAC1.561.5655.5655.560.170.17
Nebraska OmahaSum0.190.1934.4834.48-0.06-0.06
MarylandACC0.190.1964.7164.710.060.06
ButlerA100.190.1975.7675.760.100.10
Central MichiganMAC0.170.1733.3333.33-0.06-0.06
BucknellPat0.170.1784.3884.380.120.12
ColgatePat0.170.1734.3834.38-0.05-0.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.170.1770.5970.590.070.07
Wake ForestACC0.170.1741.9441.94-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.170.1769.7069.700.070.07
Morehead St.OVC0.150.1541.9441.94-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.150.1513.3313.33-0.11-0.11
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.150.1522.5822.58-0.08-0.08
OaklandSum0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.150.1528.5728.57-0.06-0.06
Miami FLACC0.150.1581.8281.820.090.09
CaliforniaP120.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
BelmontOVC0.130.1380.0080.000.080.08
Ball St.MAC0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.130.1371.4371.430.050.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
Holy CrossPat0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.120.1268.9768.970.050.05
KansasB120.120.1285.2985.290.090.09
Northern IowaMVC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
MissouriSEC0.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
OregonP120.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
ClemsonACC0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
Georgia TechACC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
VirginiaACC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.1057.6957.690.020.02
NavyPat0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
JacksonvilleASun0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Oregon St.P120.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
UCLAP120.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
UtahP120.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
SamfordSC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Virginia CommonwealthA100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
AuburnSEC0.090.0928.1228.12-0.04-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
CreightonMVC0.090.0979.4179.410.050.05
TulaneCUSA0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
AkronMAC0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.080.0838.4638.46-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
Kent St.MAC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
DuquesneA100.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
MercerASun0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.070.0740.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
HowardMEAC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
LipscombASun0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
ColoradoP120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
TexasB120.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Washington St.P120.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
CharlotteA100.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
XavierA100.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.070.0793.7593.750.060.06
HawaiiBW0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
MarquetteBE0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Texas El PasoCUSA0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
FloridaSEC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
TulsaCUSA0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Southern MississippiCUSA0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.GWC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
Georgia St.CAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Brigham YoungWCC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
MonmouthNEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
La SalleA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
PittsburghBE0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
PennsylvaniaIvy0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
BaylorB120.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
BrownIvy0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
DavidsonSC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
DaytonA100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
NC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
TempleA100.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Texas ChristianB120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Texas St.WAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleBE0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
BryantNEC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Long IslandNEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Western KentuckySB0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0553.8553.850.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.037.147.14-0.02-0.02
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeSB0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
QuinnipiacNEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0328.0028.00-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0379.3179.310.010.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Utah ValleyGWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.020.026.906.90-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
DenverWAC0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
ElonSC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
FordhamA100.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
George MasonCAA0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
George WashingtonA100.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.020.029.689.68-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Notre DameBE0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Old DominionCAA0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
SeattleWAC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
St. LouisA100.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
UC DavisBW0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
WoffordSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0214.8114.81-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
NC AshevilleBSth0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.020.0248.0048.00-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
HoustonCUSA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
RiceCUSA0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Southern MethodistCUSA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01