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Through games of Dec 19, 2014.


Minnesota

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:45.9
Current RPI:76
Expected SOS:52
Current SOS:181
Current Record:8-2
Expected Record:20-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:8-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:60
Expected OOC SOS:217



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-37.00.02%
26-49.30.09%
25-512.80.49%
24-616.02.10%
23-720.15.68%
22-825.211.88%
21-932.618.52%
20-1042.021.65%
19-1153.718.26%
18-1267.412.30%
17-1382.25.88%
16-1499.72.32%
15-15116.80.59%
14-16130.20.20%
13-17156.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Minnesota.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Louisville (7.3)ACCN68-81L0%0.0
11-18Western Kentucky (153.6)CUSAH76-54W100%0.0
11-22UMBC (336.4)AEH69-51W100%0.0
11-26St. John's (42.7)BEA70-61L0%0.0
11-28Georgia (53.1)SECN62-66W100%0.0
12-2Wake Forest (154.0)ACCA69-84W100%0.0
12-5Western Carolina (248.3)SCH84-64W100%0.0
12-8North Dakota (271.8)BSkyH92-56W100%0.0
12-10Southern (308.5)SWACH85-57W100%0.0
12-19Seattle (284.0)WACH92-57W100%0.0
12-22Furman (281.6)SCH0-098%23.8
12-27UNC Wilmington (117.6)CAAH0-090%15.1
12-31Purdue (59.1)B10A0-036%-4.3
1-3Maryland (49.5)B10A0-043%-2.1
1-6Ohio St. (11.1)B10H0-036%-4.0
1-10Michigan (137.8)B10A0-064%4.3
1-13Iowa (50.0)B10H0-065%4.6
1-17Rutgers (159.4)B10H0-095%18.8
1-20Nebraska (100.9)B10A0-061%3.4
1-24Illinois (53.3)B10H0-067%5.0
1-28Penn St. (103.3)B10A0-067%5.3
1-31Nebraska (100.9)B10H0-085%12.1
2-7Purdue (59.1)B10H0-065%4.4
2-12Iowa (50.0)B10A0-036%-4.1
2-15Indiana (78.9)B10A0-049%-0.4
2-18Northwestern (162.0)B10H0-091%15.6
2-21Wisconsin (5.3)B10A0-09%-15.5
2-26Michigan St. (26.6)B10A0-025%-8.1
3-5Wisconsin (5.3)B10H0-028%-6.8
3-8Penn St. (103.3)B10H0-088%14.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Minnesota's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Minnesota's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Minnesota.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MinnesotaB1027.8026.1178.9565.0616.097.87
IowaB100.253.9772.7363.340.111.06
WisconsinB100.003.9690.9189.030.003.10
NebraskaB100.003.9366.6745.620.00-0.34
Penn St.B100.003.9190.9155.740.000.45
PurdueB100.003.8872.7364.730.001.14
Ohio St.B100.282.3890.0085.160.221.67
IllinoisB100.002.3372.7366.180.000.75
MarylandB100.002.3390.9167.710.000.82
NorthwesternB100.002.3260.0041.410.00-0.40
RutgersB100.002.3260.0035.900.00-0.65
IndianaB100.282.3280.0057.540.170.35
Michigan St.B100.002.2772.7373.110.001.05
MichiganB100.002.2655.5642.700.00-0.33
LouisvilleACC5.001.81100.0085.505.001.28
Western CarolinaSC5.001.7322.2242.55-2.78-0.26
FurmanSC0.001.7222.2232.66-0.00-0.60
UMBCAE5.001.7211.1121.72-3.89-0.97
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.281.6950.0055.420.000.18
Wake ForestACC5.001.6955.5639.810.56-0.35
Western KentuckyCUSA5.001.6962.5051.611.250.05
GeorgiaSEC5.001.6771.4361.552.140.38
North DakotaBSky5.001.6728.5734.15-2.14-0.53
SeattleWAC5.001.6737.5045.52-1.25-0.15
SouthernSWAC5.001.670.0035.26-5.00-0.49
St. John'sBE5.001.6787.5063.613.750.45
DukeACC0.000.22100.0087.560.000.17
ChattanoogaSC0.310.2040.0049.77-0.06-0.00
SamfordSC0.250.2033.3331.23-0.08-0.08
MarquetteBE0.000.1960.0049.590.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.1822.2237.12-0.00-0.05
VMISC0.000.1833.3338.93-0.00-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.250.1675.0060.310.130.03
SyracuseACC0.280.1666.6758.330.090.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.1670.0072.100.000.07
VirginiaACC0.000.16100.0085.760.000.12
MercerSC0.000.1544.4444.53-0.00-0.02
The CitadelSC0.000.1516.6730.30-0.00-0.06
MarshallCUSA0.280.1425.0038.65-0.14-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1433.3343.01-0.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.1466.6759.590.000.03
Georgia TechACC0.310.1477.7851.830.170.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.250.1381.8264.670.160.04
North FloridaASun0.000.1350.0057.210.000.02
Notre DameACC0.000.1390.9172.430.000.06
Chicago St.WAC0.530.120.0011.34-0.53-0.09
Nebraska OmahaSum0.280.1244.4455.60-0.030.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.250.1271.4364.140.110.03
WoffordSC0.000.1277.7875.790.000.06
CreightonBE0.000.1275.0051.760.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.590.1233.3355.14-0.200.01
MississippiSEC0.590.1170.0052.530.240.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1160.0063.510.000.03
DrexelCAA0.000.1125.0036.23-0.00-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.1150.0038.230.00-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.110.0028.56-0.00-0.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.110.009.00-0.00-0.09
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.1110.0018.50-0.00-0.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1111.1144.75-0.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.11100.0081.870.000.07
Northern IowaMVC0.310.1190.0078.440.250.06
Seton HallBE0.000.1190.0067.320.000.04
BucknellPat0.000.1140.0036.30-0.00-0.03
George WashingtonA100.250.1166.6766.380.080.04
Iowa St.B120.310.1188.8963.400.240.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.250.110.0018.32-0.25-0.07
ButlerBE0.000.1180.0072.370.000.05
FordhamA100.280.1128.5728.06-0.12-0.05
MissouriSEC0.000.1144.4431.92-0.00-0.04
Miami FLACC0.000.1181.8266.320.000.04
PittsburghACC0.000.1166.6752.850.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.1155.5638.620.00-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.310.0933.3341.24-0.10-0.02
MontanaBSky0.280.0925.0051.83-0.140.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0942.8642.46-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0936.3644.80-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0950.0045.370.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0990.0081.790.000.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.280.0960.0075.470.060.05
HawaiiBW0.000.0966.6754.760.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.310.0936.3647.56-0.09-0.00
TowsonCAA0.250.0966.6751.280.080.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.310.0950.0052.110.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.310.0933.3363.11-0.100.02
ElonCAA0.000.0937.5047.90-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.280.0944.4450.85-0.030.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0970.0060.840.000.02
NJITind0.280.0936.3641.21-0.08-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0837.5050.60-0.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0818.1838.45-0.00-0.02
New HampshireAE0.000.0857.1464.570.000.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0855.5654.330.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.310.0855.5656.260.030.01
UABCUSA0.000.0830.0036.94-0.00-0.02
TulaneAmer0.560.0888.8955.090.440.01
AkronMAC0.250.0860.0056.170.050.01
LongwoodBSth0.250.0820.0026.51-0.15-0.04
OaklandHorz0.250.0830.0031.32-0.10-0.03
KentuckySEC0.000.08100.0095.110.000.07
Kansas St.B120.000.0860.0037.150.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0860.0044.120.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0845.4550.81-0.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.069.0929.87-0.00-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0636.3665.17-0.000.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0622.2242.00-0.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0633.3340.82-0.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0685.7161.910.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0625.0035.06-0.00-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0017.19-0.00-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0677.7868.980.000.02
DelawareCAA0.000.060.007.43-0.00-0.05
HofstraCAA0.000.0677.7878.860.000.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0675.0074.680.000.03
Montana St.BSky0.000.0622.2228.76-0.00-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.0666.6757.890.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0628.5757.14-0.000.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0650.0041.650.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0662.5073.430.000.03
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0614.2929.35-0.00-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0662.5067.130.000.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0657.1456.650.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.280.0620.0027.89-0.17-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.310.0672.7367.410.140.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.310.0650.0047.740.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0028.67-0.00-0.02
AlbanyAE0.000.0633.3348.78-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.060.0011.87-0.00-0.04
HartfordAE0.000.0650.0050.810.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0616.6744.58-0.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.0611.1121.27-0.00-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0039.69-0.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0644.4457.69-0.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.280.0622.2230.55-0.15-0.02
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0044.56-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.250.0666.6754.650.080.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.250.0650.0039.610.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.0690.0073.800.000.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.250.0622.2230.49-0.14-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.280.0633.3349.72-0.09-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0014.67-0.00-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0671.4363.270.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0636.3633.52-0.00-0.02
OregonP120.000.0666.6757.860.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0670.0071.300.000.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.250.0614.2945.11-0.18-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.250.0660.0057.640.050.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0644.4435.91-0.00-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.0660.0034.020.00-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.590.0690.0090.870.470.05
ProvidenceBE0.000.0672.7353.500.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0666.6766.120.000.02
XavierBE0.000.0680.0070.970.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.250.0577.7871.770.140.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.280.0528.5741.46-0.12-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0560.0064.140.000.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0540.0050.17-0.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0533.3345.98-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.0575.0069.170.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0566.6742.760.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0540.0033.52-0.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0577.7870.500.000.02
BYUWCC0.000.0566.6768.290.000.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0590.9168.690.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.0555.5648.170.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.0550.0046.960.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.0528.5731.22-0.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.000.0575.0077.200.000.03
IPFWSum0.000.0557.1456.380.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0520.0027.11-0.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0530.0028.56-0.00-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0533.3334.61-0.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0544.4456.59-0.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0518.1836.00-0.00-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0542.8633.87-0.00-0.02
OklahomaB120.000.0577.7867.320.000.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.0575.0057.990.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0550.0058.380.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.280.0518.1827.79-0.18-0.02
TexasB120.000.0590.0081.650.000.03
USCP120.000.0560.0036.070.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0336.3638.89-0.00-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.280.030.007.81-0.28-0.03
Texas St.SB0.280.0350.0050.060.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.280.0337.5064.18-0.070.01
WashingtonP120.280.03100.0071.400.280.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0337.5034.46-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0377.7869.590.000.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0066.920.000.01
BelmontOVC0.280.0360.0061.960.060.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.280.0375.0067.160.140.01
DavidsonA100.000.0387.5076.810.000.02
DrakeMVC0.310.0320.0020.26-0.19-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0337.5038.43-0.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0337.5050.55-0.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0312.5032.33-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.280.0355.5661.910.030.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0342.8636.96-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0342.8637.74-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0316.6726.71-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.280.0355.5640.440.03-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.310.0366.6755.450.100.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0342.8626.94-0.00-0.01
UtahP120.310.0377.7879.680.170.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0360.0071.320.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0342.8637.71-0.00-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0328.5742.44-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0082.300.000.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.250.0342.8649.88-0.04-0.00
DetroitHorz0.000.0344.4448.82-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.310.0333.3339.29-0.10-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.250.0362.5071.350.060.01
HowardMEAC0.250.0330.0043.48-0.10-0.00
LehighPat0.000.0337.5047.68-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.250.0333.3327.57-0.08-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.250.0338.4644.31-0.06-0.00
WyomingMWC0.000.0377.7873.540.000.01
ColoradoP120.310.0366.6757.620.100.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.280.0333.3344.60-0.09-0.00
LSUSEC0.000.0380.0064.030.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.280.0312.5029.32-0.21-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0354.5559.120.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.280.0362.5057.080.070.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0355.5645.620.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0377.7865.880.000.01
TroySB0.310.0333.3339.50-0.10-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0360.0064.750.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0360.0053.630.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0385.7170.370.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.0320.0043.07-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.250.0340.0046.66-0.05-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0366.6762.500.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.0362.5056.220.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0320.0039.24-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0318.1821.03-0.00-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0333.3333.03-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.250.0366.6772.800.080.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.280.0355.5637.870.03-0.01
KansasB120.000.0388.8969.210.000.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0314.2933.59-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0375.0059.930.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0322.2237.84-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0316.6737.98-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.250.0337.5038.31-0.06-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0320.0021.61-0.00-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0320.0046.54-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.34-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0344.4469.77-0.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0388.8963.880.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0333.3340.96-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.000.0355.5657.270.000.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0053.130.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0336.3647.58-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0350.0040.680.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0322.2240.60-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0350.0062.120.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0360.0064.800.000.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0314.2933.57-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0362.5055.010.000.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0325.0044.57-0.00-0.00