live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Minnesota

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:50.0
Current RPI:50
Expected SOS:9
Current SOS:9
Current Record:19-13
Expected Record:19-13
Current Conf Record:9-11
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:24
Expected OOC SOS:49



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1350.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Minnesota.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Lehigh (236.0)PatH81-62W100%0.0
11-12Montana (183.0)BSkyH84-58W100%0.0
11-16Richmond (75.0)A10A59-74W100%0.0
11-19Coastal Carolina (196.0)BSthH82-72W100%0.0
11-21Wofford (153.0)SCH79-57W100%0.0
11-25Syracuse (16.0)ACCN75-67L0%0.0
11-26Arkansas (77.0)SECN73-87L0%0.0
12-3Florida St. (54.0)ACCH71-61W100%0.0
12-7New Orleans (260.0)SlndH80-65W100%0.0
12-10South Dakota St. (138.0)SumH75-59W100%0.0
12-20Nebraska Omaha (219.0)SumH92-79W100%0.0
12-28Texas A&M Corpus Chris (249.0)SlndH65-44W100%0.0
1-2Michigan (11.0)B10H60-63L0%0.0
1-5Purdue (145.0)B10H82-79W100%0.0
1-8Penn St. (114.0)B10A65-68W100%0.0
1-11Michigan St. (18.0)B10A87-75L0%0.0
1-16Ohio St. (24.0)B10H63-53W100%0.0
1-19Iowa (56.0)B10A94-73L0%0.0
1-22Wisconsin (6.0)B10H81-68W100%0.0
1-26Nebraska (48.0)B10A82-78L0%0.0
2-1Northwestern (123.0)B10H54-55L0%0.0
2-5Purdue (145.0)B10A77-74L0%0.0
2-8Indiana (102.0)B10H66-60W100%0.0
2-13Wisconsin (6.0)B10A78-70L0%0.0
2-16Northwestern (123.0)B10A48-54W100%0.0
2-19Illinois (70.0)B10H49-62L0%0.0
2-22Ohio St. (24.0)B10A64-46L0%0.0
2-25Iowa (56.0)B10H95-89W100%0.0
3-1Michigan (11.0)B10A66-56L0%0.0
3-9Penn St. (114.0)B10H81-63W100%0.0
3-13Penn St. (114.0)B10N63-56W100%0.0
3-14Wisconsin (6.0)B10N83-57L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Minnesota's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Minnesota's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Minnesota.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MinnesotaB1026.3326.3355.4755.472.882.88
WisconsinB105.365.3680.0080.003.223.22
Penn St.B105.295.2951.7251.720.180.18
Ohio St.B103.933.9375.0075.001.961.96
MichiganB103.923.9274.1974.191.901.90
PurdueB103.913.9146.6746.67-0.26-0.26
IowaB103.893.8962.0762.070.940.94
NorthwesternB103.873.8741.9441.94-0.62-0.62
Michigan St.B102.532.5375.7675.761.311.31
IllinoisB102.402.4056.2556.250.300.30
IndianaB102.382.3854.8454.840.230.23
NebraskaB102.372.3760.0060.000.470.47
South Dakota St.Sum1.671.6759.2659.260.310.31
Nebraska OmahaSum1.671.6750.0050.000.000.00
Florida St.ACC1.631.6361.2961.290.370.37
New OrleansSlnd1.611.6138.1038.10-0.38-0.38
SyracuseACC1.611.6183.8783.871.091.09
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.601.6055.5655.560.180.18
LehighPat1.591.5945.1645.16-0.15-0.15
MontanaBSky1.591.5955.5655.560.180.18
ArkansasSEC1.561.5664.5264.520.450.45
Coastal CarolinaBSth1.561.5662.0762.070.380.38
RichmondA101.561.5659.3859.380.290.29
WoffordSC1.561.5660.7160.710.330.33
IPFWSum0.190.1967.7467.740.070.07
South Carolina St.MEAC0.180.1825.0025.00-0.09-0.09
PittsburghACC0.170.1773.5373.530.080.08
Notre DameACC0.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.170.1762.5062.500.040.04
VirginiaACC0.170.1782.3582.350.110.11
Western IllinoisSum0.170.1725.9325.93-0.08-0.08
Oral RobertsSlnd0.160.1644.8344.83-0.02-0.02
IUPUISum0.160.1610.3410.34-0.13-0.13
North Dakota St.Sum0.160.1678.5778.570.090.09
North DakotaBSky0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.150.1546.1546.15-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.150.1525.9325.93-0.07-0.07
Central ConnecticutNEC0.150.1534.4834.48-0.05-0.05
MarylandACC0.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
FloridaSEC0.140.1494.1294.120.130.13
Houston BaptistSlnd0.140.1414.8114.81-0.10-0.10
High PointBSth0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.130.1368.9768.970.050.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Iowa St.B120.130.1378.7978.790.070.07
ClemsonACC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
MississippiSEC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
PennIvy0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.120.1230.7730.77-0.05-0.05
Miami FLACC0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
StanfordP120.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
VCUA100.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
Boston CollegeACC0.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
BucknellPat0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
Saint LouisA100.120.1280.6580.650.070.07
DukeACC0.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
DuquesneA100.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1261.7661.760.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.120.1224.0024.00-0.06-0.06
MissouriSEC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
West VirginiaB120.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
MarquetteBE0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
DenverSum0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
South DakotaSum0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
The CitadelSC0.110.1113.7913.79-0.08-0.08
WinthropBSth0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.100.1014.2914.29-0.07-0.07
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1017.8617.86-0.06-0.06
LamarSlnd0.100.1010.7110.71-0.08-0.08
SienaMAAC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.1032.1432.14-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.100.1032.2632.26-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
AmericanPat0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
North FloridaASun0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
LSUSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Portland St.BSky0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
DrakeMVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.070.0787.5087.500.060.06
MassachusettsA100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
ColgatePat0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.070.0770.3770.370.030.03
RiderMAAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
KentuckySEC0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
Green BayHorz0.070.0777.7877.780.040.04
UICHorz0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0730.3030.30-0.03-0.03
BryantNEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
DelawareCAA0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
OhioMAC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0693.1093.100.050.05
UMKCWAC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IdahoWAC0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.060.063.573.57-0.05-0.05
Weber St.BSky0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
DavidsonSC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
FurmanSC0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VMIBSth0.050.0555.5655.560.010.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
OklahomaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
XavierBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
ButlerBE0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
LafayettePat0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Washington St.P120.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
BrownIvy0.050.0551.8551.850.000.00
DaytonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
DePaulBE0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
UCLAP120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0534.6234.62-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Appalachian St.SC0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
ElonSC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
CreightonBE0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
BaylorB120.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
CornellIvy0.020.023.703.70-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0216.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
UCFAmer0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
BradleyMVC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
HofstraCAA0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
PortlandWCC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01