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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Minnesota

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:257.0
Current RPI:257
Expected SOS:93
Current SOS:93
Current Record:8-23
Expected Record:8-23
Current Conf Record:2-17
Expected Conf Record:2-17
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-1
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:230
Expected OOC SOS:197



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-23257.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Minnesota.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13UMKC (286.0)WACH76-58W100%0.0
11-15Louisiana Monroe (95.0)SBH67-56W100%0.0
11-19Temple (60.0)AmerN70-75L0%0.0
11-20Missouri St. (235.0)MVCN69-74W100%0.0
11-22Texas Tech (36.0)B12N81-68L0%0.0
11-27Nebraska Omaha (144.0)SumH93-90W100%0.0
11-30Clemson (131.0)ACCH89-83W100%0.0
12-5South Dakota (197.0)SumH81-85L0%0.0
12-8South Dakota St. (29.0)SumH70-84L0%0.0
12-12Oklahoma St. (170.0)B12N60-62L0%0.0
12-16Chicago St. (348.0)WACH70-52W100%0.0
12-23Milwaukee (173.0)HorzH65-74L0%0.0
12-30Ohio St. (74.0)B10A78-63L0%0.0
1-2Michigan St. (12.0)B10H61-69L0%0.0
1-5Penn St. (125.0)B10A86-77L0%0.0
1-9Northwestern (115.0)B10H52-77L0%0.0
1-12Nebraska (165.0)B10A84-59L0%0.0
1-16Indiana (24.0)B10H63-70L0%0.0
1-20Michigan (56.0)B10A74-69L0%0.0
1-23Illinois (149.0)B10H71-76L0%0.0
1-27Purdue (15.0)B10H64-68L0%0.0
1-30Indiana (24.0)B10A74-68L0%0.0
2-4Northwestern (115.0)B10A82-58L0%0.0
2-10Michigan (56.0)B10H74-82L0%0.0
2-14Iowa (28.0)B10A75-71L0%0.0
2-18Maryland (14.0)B10H68-63W100%0.0
2-23Rutgers (294.0)B10H83-61W100%0.0
2-28Illinois (149.0)B10A84-71L0%0.0
3-2Wisconsin (43.0)B10H49-62L0%0.0
3-5Rutgers (294.0)B10A75-52L0%0.0
3-9Illinois (149.0)B10N85-52L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Minnesota's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Minnesota's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Minnesota.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MinnesotaB1026.1326.1318.1818.18-16.63-16.63
IllinoisB105.495.4938.7138.71-1.24-1.24
MichiganB103.873.8761.2961.290.870.87
IndianaB103.843.8476.6776.672.052.05
RutgersB103.843.8417.2417.24-2.51-2.51
NorthwesternB103.823.8260.0060.000.760.76
NebraskaB102.362.3645.4545.45-0.21-0.21
PurdueB102.352.3575.7675.761.211.21
Ohio St.B102.332.3359.3859.380.440.44
IowaB102.332.3366.6766.670.780.78
WisconsinB102.332.3361.2961.290.530.53
Michigan St.B102.292.2984.8584.851.591.59
Penn St.B102.282.2848.3948.39-0.07-0.07
MarylandB102.282.2877.4277.421.251.25
South DakotaSum1.851.8537.9337.93-0.45-0.45
UMKCWAC1.801.8033.3333.33-0.60-0.60
Chicago St.WAC1.791.793.573.57-1.66-1.66
South Dakota St.Sum1.781.7876.6776.670.950.95
Nebraska OmahaSum1.751.7557.1457.140.250.25
Oklahoma St.B121.721.7235.4835.48-0.50-0.50
Texas TechB121.691.6960.0060.000.340.34
MilwaukeeHorz1.661.6656.6756.670.220.22
ClemsonACC1.661.6656.6756.670.220.22
Louisiana MonroeSB1.641.6460.0060.000.330.33
Missouri St.MVC1.641.6440.0040.00-0.33-0.33
TempleAmer1.641.6464.5264.520.480.48
North Dakota St.Sum0.260.2658.0658.060.040.04
DenverSum0.240.2451.6151.610.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.240.2429.1729.17-0.10-0.10
Oral RobertsSum0.240.2441.3841.38-0.04-0.04
IPFWSum0.240.2470.9770.970.100.10
Iowa St.B120.230.2365.6265.620.070.07
IUPUISum0.210.2138.7138.71-0.05-0.05
Notre DameACC0.200.2065.6265.620.060.06
ConnecticutAmer0.170.1770.5970.590.070.07
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.170.1772.4172.410.080.08
Kansas St.B120.150.1551.5251.520.000.00
TCUB120.150.1536.3636.36-0.04-0.04
TexasB120.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
MissouriSEC0.150.1532.2632.26-0.05-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.140.1479.3179.310.080.08
DrakeMVC0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
Green BayHorz0.130.1363.6463.640.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
West VirginiaB120.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
OklahomaB120.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
Northern KentuckyHorz0.130.1325.0025.00-0.06-0.06
North CarolinaACC0.130.1382.3582.350.080.08
CreightonBE0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
KansasB120.130.1387.8887.880.100.10
Youngstown St.Horz0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.120.1210.7110.71-0.10-0.10
SeattleWAC0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.110.1118.5218.52-0.07-0.07
ValparaisoHorz0.110.1180.0080.000.060.06
Arkansas Little RockSB0.100.1087.1087.100.080.08
OaklandHorz0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
DePaulBE0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.1023.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
BaylorB120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
St. John'sBE0.100.1022.5822.58-0.06-0.06
UMass LowellAE0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1021.8821.88-0.06-0.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1024.2424.24-0.05-0.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1016.6716.67-0.07-0.07
ChattanoogaSC0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
ProvidenceBE0.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
MarquetteBE0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
UNLVMWC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
George WashingtonA100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
DukeACC0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
HoustonAmer0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0821.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
HowardMEAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
ButlerBE0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0722.8622.86-0.04-0.04
SMUAmer0.070.0783.3383.330.050.05
FloridaSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
North FloridaASun0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
UABCUSA0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.070.0777.7877.780.040.04
USC UpstateASun0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
DetroitHorz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
South AlabamaSB0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Texas St.SB0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UtahP120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
PittsburghACC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
BryantNEC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
High PointBSth0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
LipscombASun0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0320.8320.83-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0379.4179.410.010.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0335.2935.29-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
MercerSC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0256.0056.000.000.00
LehighPat0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0262.8662.860.010.01
SamfordSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0244.1244.12-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
VermontAE0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01