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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Minnesota

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:36.2
Current RPI:10
Expected SOS:26
Current SOS:16
Current Record:7-1
Expected Record:21-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:7-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:12
Expected OOC SOS:43



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-32.70.06%
27-44.80.29%
26-57.91.23%
25-611.73.04%
24-715.77.68%
23-820.612.54%
22-926.718.70%
21-1033.818.67%
20-1142.916.17%
19-1253.711.56%
18-1366.26.06%
17-1480.62.85%
16-1595.30.85%
15-16113.10.25%
14-17122.80.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Minnesota.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Louisiana Lafayette (101.3)SBH86-74W100%0.0
11-14UT Arlington (67.2)SBH84-67W100%0.0
11-16Mount St. Mary's (177.3)NECH80-56W100%0.0
11-18St. John's (151.8)BEH92-86W100%0.0
11-22Arkansas (43.1)SECH85-71W100%0.0
11-25Southern Illinois (145.7)MVCH57-45W100%0.0
11-28Florida St. (40.7)ACCA75-67L0%0.0
12-3Vanderbilt (79.2)SECN56-52W100%0.0
12-6NJIT (197.6)ASunH0-094%18.4
12-9Georgia Southern (189.8)SBH0-092%17.1
12-11Northern Illinois (208.0)MACH0-091%15.9
12-14LIU Brooklyn (230.7)NECH0-096%20.8
12-23Arkansas St. (76.0)SBH0-083%11.3
12-27Michigan St. (48.5)B10H0-059%2.6
1-1Purdue (28.0)B10A0-021%-9.5
1-5Northwestern (51.2)B10A0-037%-4.1
1-8Ohio St. (39.3)B10H0-056%1.8
1-11Michigan St. (48.5)B10A0-038%-3.7
1-14Penn St. (121.4)B10A0-062%3.7
1-21Wisconsin (22.2)B10H0-038%-3.8
1-25Ohio St. (39.3)B10A0-035%-4.5
1-28Maryland (85.4)B10H0-075%8.0
2-4Illinois (93.1)B10A0-054%1.2
2-8Iowa (195.6)B10H0-083%11.5
2-11Rutgers (168.4)B10A0-073%7.2
2-15Indiana (20.4)B10H0-042%-2.6
2-19Michigan (38.7)B10H0-052%0.7
2-22Maryland (85.4)B10A0-056%1.7
2-25Penn St. (121.4)B10H0-080%9.9
3-2Nebraska (86.3)B10H0-074%7.8
3-5Wisconsin (22.2)B10A0-020%-10.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Minnesota's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Minnesota's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Minnesota.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MinnesotaB1028.2526.0988.4664.2021.737.41
Ohio St.B100.003.8387.5069.600.001.50
Michigan St.B100.393.8155.5659.090.040.69
Penn St.B100.003.7866.6747.610.00-0.18
WisconsinB100.003.7877.7876.370.001.99
MarylandB100.003.7887.5061.070.000.84
PurdueB100.002.2775.0075.230.001.15
MichiganB100.352.2775.0067.090.170.78
IllinoisB100.392.2762.5050.870.100.04
RutgersB100.002.2785.7145.980.00-0.18
IndianaB100.002.2487.5075.030.001.12
NebraskaB100.002.2457.1445.580.00-0.20
IowaB100.002.2237.5038.43-0.00-0.51
NorthwesternB100.002.1975.0066.260.000.71
Louisiana LafayetteSB6.251.7883.3366.224.170.58
UT ArlingtonSB7.041.7871.4369.803.020.70
Mount St. Mary'sNEC7.531.7712.5049.80-5.65-0.01
ArkansasSEC7.431.75100.0068.407.430.64
St. John'sBE6.251.7442.8638.26-0.89-0.41
Arkansas St.SB0.001.7275.0068.070.000.62
Georgia SouthernSB0.001.7242.8644.88-0.00-0.18
LIU BrooklynNEC0.001.6971.4357.610.000.26
Southern IllinoisMVC7.041.6666.6750.832.350.03
VanderbiltSEC6.251.6657.1447.780.89-0.07
Florida St.ACC6.251.6485.7164.094.460.46
NJITASun0.001.6450.0051.390.000.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.001.6142.8646.91-0.00-0.10
Georgia St.SB0.000.2250.0060.620.000.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.2216.6729.81-0.00-0.09
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.390.1957.1471.940.060.08
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1916.6729.80-0.00-0.08
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.1925.0038.83-0.00-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.000.1971.4357.970.000.03
TroySB0.000.1942.8636.19-0.00-0.05
GeorgetownBE0.000.1855.5647.890.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1816.6739.78-0.00-0.04
Texas St.SB0.000.1750.0043.390.00-0.02
Little RockSB0.000.1666.6761.330.000.04
DukeACC0.000.1688.8978.400.000.09
MarquetteBE0.390.1675.0066.410.200.05
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1333.3339.94-0.00-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.1333.3332.92-0.00-0.05
CreightonBE0.000.13100.0076.630.000.07
BryantNEC0.000.1325.0047.82-0.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.1375.0049.180.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.390.13100.0074.440.390.06
FloridaSEC0.000.1387.5075.240.000.07
KentuckySEC0.000.1387.5082.800.000.09
Notre DameACC0.000.13100.0077.380.000.07
TennesseeSEC0.000.1340.0041.12-0.00-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1142.8650.11-0.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1125.0030.23-0.00-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.000.1128.5738.15-0.00-0.03
TexasB120.390.1157.1438.680.06-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.840.1112.5037.99-0.63-0.03
UCLAP120.000.11100.0086.690.000.08
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1122.2241.71-0.00-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1137.5033.74-0.00-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1114.2926.74-0.00-0.05
WagnerNEC0.000.1133.3354.47-0.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1175.0086.710.000.08
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.1012.5030.39-0.00-0.04
DePaulBE0.000.1066.6735.430.00-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.1087.5075.590.000.05
MissouriSEC0.000.1057.1442.530.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.1071.4354.560.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.100.0025.23-0.00-0.05
North CarolinaACC0.000.1087.5081.960.000.07
ProvidenceBE0.000.1075.0056.590.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.1071.4366.700.000.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1066.6766.180.000.03
VirginiaACC0.000.1087.5078.510.000.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1042.8638.17-0.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0957.1454.360.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0871.4356.250.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0812.5034.79-0.00-0.03
StetsonASun0.000.0828.5728.24-0.00-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC1.280.0850.0066.300.000.03
UMass LowellAE0.000.0822.2238.49-0.00-0.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0842.8627.96-0.00-0.04
ColgatePat0.000.0812.5029.71-0.00-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0812.5029.15-0.00-0.03
FordhamA100.390.0850.0041.310.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0875.0051.040.000.00
WinthropBSth0.390.0850.0071.070.000.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0871.4354.860.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0871.4373.490.000.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.080.0022.58-0.00-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0857.1452.030.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0885.7162.990.000.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0816.6744.34-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0833.3352.84-0.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0871.4354.310.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.450.0850.0041.990.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0857.1451.790.000.00
IUPUISum0.000.0837.5051.64-0.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.0875.0066.100.000.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0814.2938.26-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0857.1471.520.000.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.0850.0044.400.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.450.0862.5051.790.110.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0885.7157.450.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0820.0022.75-0.00-0.04
George MasonA100.350.0862.5046.900.09-0.00
George WashingtonA100.390.0855.5641.690.04-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0857.1436.010.00-0.02
Iowa St.B120.350.0871.4368.070.150.03
LSUSEC0.000.0871.4349.170.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.08100.0078.850.000.05
VillanovaBE0.000.08100.0084.840.000.05
Ball St.MAC0.000.0642.8647.11-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0650.0056.740.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0657.1459.280.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.0612.5033.04-0.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0642.8630.92-0.00-0.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0637.5047.91-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0644.4441.30-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0616.6736.03-0.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0671.4368.980.000.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0614.2936.02-0.00-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0650.0071.020.000.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0528.5742.90-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.390.0557.1464.030.060.02
TempleAmer0.390.0575.0064.920.200.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.0542.8650.06-0.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.390.0533.3330.44-0.13-0.02
KansasB120.000.0587.5075.860.000.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.450.050.0017.61-0.45-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0540.0041.93-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.450.0542.8637.34-0.06-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.050.0018.64-0.00-0.03
AmericanPat0.000.0514.2931.35-0.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0571.4351.460.000.00
DrakeMVC0.000.050.0019.67-0.00-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0542.8644.71-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0522.2226.33-0.00-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0560.0067.760.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0550.0046.410.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0587.5059.310.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0571.4358.920.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0560.0058.590.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0525.0035.09-0.00-0.02
RichmondA100.000.0550.0048.210.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0557.1450.420.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0575.0054.670.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0542.8653.19-0.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0571.4373.040.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0528.5731.44-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.390.050.0021.22-0.39-0.03
LehighPat0.000.0542.8666.67-0.000.02
Loyola MDPat0.350.0542.8645.94-0.05-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0557.1458.940.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0550.0058.040.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0542.8638.63-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.390.0575.0073.060.200.02
West VirginiaB120.350.0585.7183.660.250.04
AlbanyAE0.000.0542.8661.11-0.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.0575.0068.370.000.02
Austin PeayOVC0.450.0533.3336.74-0.15-0.01
BaylorB120.000.05100.0076.590.000.03
BucknellPat0.390.0566.6766.340.130.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0587.5082.360.000.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0533.3339.61-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.0544.4442.03-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0516.6730.34-0.00-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.450.0571.4370.210.190.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0542.8658.58-0.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0542.8651.95-0.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.050.0039.53-0.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0514.2943.58-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0571.4354.860.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0575.0048.500.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0575.0048.030.00-0.00
NavyPat0.000.0525.0037.38-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.390.050.0035.95-0.39-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0585.7177.150.000.03
OklahomaB120.000.0571.4348.350.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.050.0022.31-0.00-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0514.2931.28-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0525.0027.53-0.00-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0557.1467.260.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0575.0054.490.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0528.5723.12-0.00-0.03
XavierBE0.000.0587.5070.890.000.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0328.5741.52-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.000.0355.5646.970.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0333.3352.21-0.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0342.8641.51-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.000.0371.4359.470.000.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0350.0052.760.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0342.8645.44-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.000.0333.3333.36-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0383.3371.480.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0357.1433.230.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0333.3352.11-0.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.450.0312.5030.68-0.33-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3346.38-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.000.0342.8647.76-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.450.0350.0062.380.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0342.8633.23-0.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0328.5734.28-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.030.0022.01-0.00-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0089.330.000.02
South DakotaSum0.000.0350.0046.020.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.0340.0058.82-0.000.00
ArmyPat0.000.0342.8650.09-0.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0342.8654.90-0.000.00
BYUWCC0.000.0362.5066.900.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0020.55-0.00-0.02
DrexelCAA0.000.0350.0040.600.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0325.0043.41-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.000.0314.2924.15-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.450.0350.0061.240.000.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0357.1453.990.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0328.5723.78-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0061.680.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0362.5043.800.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.000.0362.5040.460.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.390.0350.0064.350.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.390.0314.2932.19-0.28-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.390.0350.0043.560.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0357.1429.790.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.390.0320.0037.65-0.23-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0017.13-0.00-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0371.4355.160.000.00
FurmanSC0.000.0333.3356.24-0.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.0342.8646.48-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0385.7178.280.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0333.3348.07-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0325.0034.40-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.47-0.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0375.0055.500.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0387.5076.230.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0316.6738.58-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0342.8655.09-0.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0333.3354.32-0.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.390.0371.4368.050.170.01
SamfordSC0.000.0362.5056.520.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.390.0333.3332.35-0.13-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0366.6766.860.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0325.0020.78-0.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.450.0325.0055.33-0.220.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.390.0385.7170.060.280.01
TulaneAmer0.390.0312.5023.93-0.29-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.0380.0054.540.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0322.2221.23-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.030.0016.68-0.00-0.02