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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Minnesota

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:98.1
Current RPI:75
Expected SOS:83
Current SOS:69
Current Record:14-8
Expected Record:18-13
Current Conf Record:3-6
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:69
Expected OOC SOS:234



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-840.00.01%
22-947.80.23%
21-1056.82.15%
20-1166.98.56%
19-1278.820.05%
18-1394.029.28%
17-14111.224.67%
16-15130.211.76%
15-16148.92.96%
14-17165.00.32%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Minnesota.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10USC Upstate (335.9)ASunH92-77W100%0.0
11-13Providence (44.5)BEA74-86W100%0.0
11-15Niagara (187.0)MAACH107-81W100%0.0
11-19Western Carolina (222.1)SCH92-64W100%0.0
11-21Alabama A&M (348.6)SWACH100-57W100%0.0
11-24Massachusetts (199.1)A10N69-51W100%0.0
11-25Alabama (40.5)SECN89-84W100%0.0
11-29Miami FL (25.8)ACCH81-86L0%0.0
12-3Rutgers (187.9)B10H89-67W100%0.0
12-5Nebraska (100.5)B10A78-68L0%0.0
12-9Arkansas (41.8)SECA95-79L0%0.0
12-11Drake (160.6)MVCH68-67W100%0.0
12-21Oral Roberts (220.9)SumH77-63W100%0.0
12-23Florida Atlantic (239.8)CUSAH95-60W100%0.0
12-30Harvard (178.0)IvyH65-55W100%0.0
1-3Illinois (161.2)B10H77-67W100%0.0
1-6Indiana (115.7)B10H71-75L0%0.0
1-10Northwestern (127.8)B10A83-60L0%0.0
1-13Purdue (6.5)B10H47-81L0%0.0
1-15Penn St. (114.6)B10A84-95W100%0.0
1-18Maryland (45.2)B10A77-66L0%0.0
1-20Ohio St. (21.1)B10N49-67L0%0.0
1-23Northwestern (127.8)B10H0-062%3.3
1-30Iowa (156.8)B10A0-048%-0.6
2-3Michigan (37.6)B10A0-023%-8.1
2-6Nebraska (100.5)B10H0-069%5.6
2-9Indiana (115.7)B10A0-045%-1.3
2-13Michigan St. (21.5)B10H0-023%-8.3
2-19Wisconsin (128.8)B10A0-040%-2.8
2-21Iowa (156.8)B10H0-070%5.8
2-25Purdue (6.5)B10A0-07%-16.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Minnesota's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Minnesota's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Minnesota.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MinnesotaB1026.3026.0958.7054.404.572.29
IowaB100.453.8147.6244.21-0.02-0.44
IndianaB102.383.7855.5648.810.26-0.09
PurdueB102.503.7690.0087.802.002.84
NebraskaB102.503.7565.0059.430.750.71
NorthwesternB102.663.7552.6348.980.14-0.08
Penn St.B102.612.3065.0057.610.780.35
MichiganB100.462.3076.1970.540.240.94
WisconsinB100.392.2750.0045.840.00-0.19
Ohio St.B102.442.2580.0075.741.471.16
IllinoisB102.442.2550.0045.800.00-0.19
MarylandB102.492.2568.4264.050.920.63
RutgersB102.382.2457.8948.300.38-0.08
Michigan St.B100.342.2285.0083.400.241.48
MassachusettsA102.521.7252.6348.370.13-0.06
Alabama A&MSWAC2.451.7211.1117.31-1.91-1.12
ArkansasSEC2.331.6766.6763.010.780.43
AlabamaSEC2.331.6672.2260.951.040.36
DrakeMVC2.271.6657.8950.670.360.02
NiagaraMAAC2.391.6660.0054.820.480.16
Oral RobertsSum2.391.6631.5833.77-0.88-0.54
Western CarolinaSC2.391.6641.1836.63-0.42-0.45
HarvardIvy2.331.6440.0048.42-0.47-0.05
ProvidenceBE2.331.6473.6862.491.100.41
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.271.6140.0039.13-0.45-0.35
Miami FLACC2.271.6176.4769.471.200.63
USC UpstateASun2.271.6111.7618.69-1.74-1.01
Chicago St.WAC0.170.210.003.07-0.17-0.20
CreightonBE0.290.1975.0070.700.140.08
DePaulBE0.230.1842.1134.31-0.04-0.06
North CarolinaACC0.180.1680.0075.060.110.08
ValparaisoMVC0.170.1647.3748.77-0.01-0.00
ButlerBE0.220.1666.6763.070.070.04
North FloridaASun0.130.1431.5835.15-0.05-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.1472.2272.980.050.06
LipscombASun0.110.1452.9459.340.010.03
BrownIvy0.110.1450.0045.140.00-0.01
La SalleA100.180.1340.0042.69-0.04-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.110.1378.9569.790.070.05
Seton HallBE0.120.1375.0067.890.060.05
Boston CollegeACC0.110.1365.0054.670.030.01
LSUSEC0.120.1361.1153.170.030.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.1327.7840.97-0.03-0.02
MarquetteBE0.110.1368.4260.550.040.03
Texas A&MSEC0.110.1368.4263.960.040.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.190.1257.8966.260.030.04
Fort WayneSum0.120.1152.6351.690.010.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.170.1125.0028.01-0.09-0.05
Missouri St.MVC0.180.1170.0068.300.070.04
North TexasCUSA0.050.1144.4446.65-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.120.1133.3336.93-0.04-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.180.1166.6755.940.060.01
UABCUSA0.130.1161.1164.130.030.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.1168.4270.810.020.04
George WashingtonA100.190.1145.0043.48-0.02-0.01
SamfordSC0.180.1127.7832.66-0.08-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.120.1144.4446.02-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.120.1189.4785.210.100.08
Notre DameACC0.060.1163.1661.020.020.02
OklahomaB120.120.1177.7867.910.060.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.110.1142.1146.09-0.02-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.170.1136.8445.21-0.04-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.1168.4257.740.000.02
MissouriSEC0.120.1066.6763.200.040.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.1016.6724.26-0.04-0.05
AuburnSEC0.120.1089.4777.000.090.06
FairfieldMAAC0.110.1038.8944.08-0.02-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.1036.8444.11-0.02-0.01
MaristMAAC0.110.1021.0522.02-0.06-0.06
Rhode IslandA100.170.1083.3381.430.120.07
St. John'sBE0.110.1047.3742.16-0.01-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.110.1072.2268.930.050.04
DenverSum0.120.0933.3336.48-0.04-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0933.3333.77-0.02-0.03
NJITASun0.120.0938.8942.61-0.03-0.01
South DakotaSum0.110.0973.6872.380.050.04
PrincetonIvy0.060.0852.9460.220.000.02
WoffordSC0.070.0868.7563.690.030.02
Arkansas St.SB0.130.0827.7831.11-0.06-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.180.0838.8940.78-0.04-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.130.0835.0026.12-0.04-0.04
Texas TechB120.130.0878.9571.810.070.04
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0820.0032.25-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.050.0833.3333.23-0.02-0.03
YaleIvy0.000.0841.1847.560.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0841.1838.47-0.01-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0841.1839.16-0.01-0.02
UTSACUSA0.130.0841.1839.65-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.130.0831.5829.06-0.05-0.03
MercerSC0.120.0844.4454.86-0.010.01
The CitadelSC0.120.0818.7518.36-0.07-0.05
KentuckySEC0.070.0873.6867.970.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0850.0050.860.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.130.0850.0051.640.000.00
ClemsonACC0.180.0884.2173.240.120.04
Florida St.ACC0.120.0873.6869.640.060.03
Georgia TechACC0.120.0852.6343.110.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.120.0842.1140.46-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.180.0860.0062.030.040.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.170.0823.5332.57-0.09-0.03
PittsburghACC0.120.0840.0030.87-0.02-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.110.0830.0033.47-0.05-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.110.0820.0023.34-0.07-0.04
ColoradoP120.060.0860.0053.720.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.120.0838.8943.43-0.03-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.170.0866.6768.730.060.03
ArizonaP120.110.0880.0078.940.070.05
BYUWCC0.170.0880.9576.240.110.04
FloridaSEC0.060.0873.6871.560.030.03
George MasonA100.110.0845.0041.30-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.060.0868.4254.070.020.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0840.0043.35-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.060.0852.6345.860.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.0872.2258.920.050.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.110.0835.0031.83-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.170.0865.0065.320.050.02
South CarolinaSEC0.120.0861.1151.910.030.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0837.5033.780.00-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0821.0544.26-0.03-0.01
UCFAmer0.110.0868.4260.860.040.02
XavierBE0.060.0885.7180.080.040.05
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0623.5325.64-0.04-0.03
FIUCUSA0.070.0635.2935.54-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.120.0673.6862.720.060.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0616.6724.910.00-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0644.4450.31-0.010.00
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0678.9576.750.040.03
RiceCUSA0.000.0611.1117.680.00-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0642.8635.24-0.01-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.130.0652.6358.590.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.140.0621.4326.35-0.08-0.03
PennIvy0.000.0664.7162.720.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.060.0668.4263.650.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.130.0672.2274.710.060.03
UNLVMWC0.120.0673.6865.260.060.02
CampbellBSth0.120.0647.0647.41-0.01-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0652.6355.290.000.01
MontanaBSky0.110.0670.5973.150.050.03
OaklandHorz0.060.0661.9065.160.010.02
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0668.4254.090.020.00
Boston UniversityPat0.130.0650.0053.260.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0622.2228.59-0.04-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0677.7879.150.040.03
FurmanSC0.000.0666.6768.540.000.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0668.7567.600.020.02
VMISC0.060.0625.0024.15-0.03-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.130.0526.3230.49-0.06-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.130.0563.1663.220.030.01
Appalachian St.SB0.120.0533.3337.23-0.04-0.01
BradleyMVC0.060.0565.0057.880.020.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0546.6746.97-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0552.6347.520.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.060.0510.5327.29-0.05-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0547.3746.09-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0578.9574.190.000.03
Loyola MDPat0.060.0522.2228.66-0.03-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.0515.7920.91-0.08-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.120.0583.3384.240.080.04
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0544.4450.08-0.010.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0555.0052.470.010.00
SyracuseACC0.060.0568.4261.230.020.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0557.8953.190.010.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0521.0523.51-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.120.0544.4446.00-0.01-0.00
BucknellPat0.120.0561.9068.020.030.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.059.5217.90-0.09-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.0565.0056.340.040.01
OhioMAC0.120.0547.0648.41-0.01-0.00
TexasB120.060.0563.1657.630.020.01
UCLAP120.000.0565.0062.050.000.01
VCUA100.000.0560.0059.700.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.0594.7486.140.000.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0512.5025.45-0.04-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0530.0036.50-0.02-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0561.9063.140.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0552.6347.390.00-0.00
DaytonA100.060.0547.3750.94-0.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.050.009.09-0.05-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0529.4133.93-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.120.0566.6765.520.040.02
HoustonAmer0.120.0578.9572.990.070.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.055.8819.35-0.05-0.03
IonaMAAC0.050.0560.0064.110.010.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0561.1147.220.00-0.00
IUPUIHorz0.050.0527.7829.83-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.050.0584.2179.750.040.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0583.3381.370.000.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.050.0010.67-0.06-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0527.7841.03-0.02-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0529.4134.76-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0521.0539.480.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.110.0547.3746.92-0.01-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0536.8432.76-0.01-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0535.2940.48-0.02-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.060.0533.3333.87-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0536.8435.57-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.000.0594.7490.310.000.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0352.9452.650.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0350.0052.460.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0358.8249.760.01-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0325.0031.45-0.03-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0370.0068.220.030.01
Little RockSB0.060.0322.2225.25-0.03-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.060.0310.5318.34-0.04-0.02
TowsonCAA0.070.0363.1665.970.020.01
TulsaAmer0.060.0355.0053.320.010.00
UMKCWAC0.060.0321.0524.75-0.04-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.070.0333.3334.10-0.02-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.0356.2556.830.010.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0390.4888.960.060.02
VermontAE0.070.0375.0077.850.040.02
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0389.4785.550.050.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0366.6765.640.020.01
High PointBSth0.060.0343.7549.23-0.01-0.00
BryantNEC0.060.039.5217.12-0.05-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0352.3848.530.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0362.5058.690.000.00
DetroitHorz0.000.0321.0525.970.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.060.0330.0030.99-0.02-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0342.1132.47-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0310.0019.63-0.05-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0370.0071.230.020.01
HartfordAE0.060.0350.0045.930.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.060.0368.7563.990.020.01
LongwoodBSth0.060.0316.6716.16-0.04-0.02
NavyPat0.060.0360.0055.160.010.00
New MexicoMWC0.060.0345.0048.56-0.01-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0343.7554.11-0.010.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0326.3231.50-0.03-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0317.6523.860.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.060.0355.5655.540.010.00
WyomingMWC0.060.0361.1156.830.010.00
ArmyPat0.050.0361.1160.440.010.01
BaylorB120.000.0361.1156.090.000.00
BelmontOVC0.060.0371.4374.660.020.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0342.1139.94-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0372.2274.930.020.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0329.4133.20-0.02-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0345.0041.33-0.01-0.00
DavidsonA100.000.0358.8261.450.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.0370.0058.090.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0366.6763.420.020.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0380.9583.260.030.02
Green BayHorz0.000.0325.0027.940.00-0.01
MaineAE0.060.0310.5314.83-0.04-0.02
MemphisAmer0.060.0365.0058.540.020.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0347.0641.41-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0345.0047.070.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.050.0333.3340.08-0.02-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0318.7536.82-0.03-0.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0357.8958.850.010.00
RichmondA100.000.0331.5834.360.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0357.1460.410.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0327.7834.500.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0328.5729.94-0.02-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0327.7831.710.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0352.9459.250.000.00
StanfordP120.050.0355.0050.370.010.00
TempleAmer0.000.0352.6351.740.000.00
TroySB0.060.0335.2942.76-0.02-0.00
WashingtonP120.060.0370.0061.440.020.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0364.7159.990.020.01