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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Minnesota

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:98.0
Current RPI:98
Expected SOS:66
Current SOS:66
Current Record:17-15
Expected Record:17-15
Current Conf Record:7-13
Expected Conf Record:7-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:55
Expected OOC SOS:209



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-1598.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Minnesota.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Louisville (21.0)ACCN68-81L0%0.0
11-18Western Kentucky (117.0)CUSAH76-54W100%0.0
11-22UMBC (346.0)AEH69-51W100%0.0
11-26St. John's (44.0)BEA70-61L0%0.0
11-28Georgia (38.0)SECN62-66W100%0.0
12-2Wake Forest (150.0)ACCA69-84W100%0.0
12-5Western Carolina (220.0)SCH84-64W100%0.0
12-8North Dakota (310.0)BSkyH92-56W100%0.0
12-10Southern (223.0)SWACH85-57W100%0.0
12-19Seattle (280.0)WACH92-57W100%0.0
12-22Furman (293.0)SCH86-76W100%0.0
12-27UNC Wilmington (145.0)CAAH108-82W100%0.0
12-31Purdue (55.0)B10A72-68L0%0.0
1-3Maryland (13.0)B10A70-58L0%0.0
1-6Ohio St. (41.0)B10H72-74L0%0.0
1-10Michigan (81.0)B10A62-57L0%0.0
1-13Iowa (43.0)B10H75-77L0%0.0
1-17Rutgers (178.0)B10H89-80W100%0.0
1-20Nebraska (158.0)B10A52-49L0%0.0
1-24Illinois (73.0)B10H79-71W100%0.0
1-28Penn St. (108.0)B10A63-58L0%0.0
1-31Nebraska (158.0)B10H60-42W100%0.0
2-7Purdue (55.0)B10H62-58W100%0.0
2-12Iowa (43.0)B10A59-64W100%0.0
2-15Indiana (61.0)B10A90-71L0%0.0
2-18Northwestern (125.0)B10H66-72L0%0.0
2-21Wisconsin (4.0)B10A63-53L0%0.0
2-26Michigan St. (23.0)B10A90-96W100%0.0
3-5Wisconsin (4.0)B10H63-76L0%0.0
3-8Penn St. (108.0)B10H76-79L0%0.0
3-11Rutgers (178.0)B10N80-68W100%0.0
3-12Ohio St. (41.0)B10N79-73L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Minnesota's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Minnesota's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Minnesota.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MinnesotaB1026.1226.1249.2649.26-0.38-0.38
Penn St.B103.873.8750.0050.000.000.00
WisconsinB103.823.8290.6290.623.113.11
IowaB103.803.8066.6766.671.271.27
Ohio St.B103.803.8067.7467.741.351.35
PurdueB103.793.7964.5264.521.101.10
NebraskaB103.743.7441.3841.38-0.65-0.65
RutgersB103.723.7233.3333.33-1.24-1.24
IndianaB102.282.2859.3859.380.430.43
Michigan St.B102.262.2669.7069.700.890.89
MarylandB102.262.2681.2581.251.411.41
MichiganB102.252.2546.6746.67-0.15-0.15
IllinoisB102.212.2161.2961.290.500.50
NorthwesternB102.212.2145.1645.16-0.21-0.21
LouisvilleACC1.711.7174.1974.190.830.83
FurmanSC1.611.6130.0030.00-0.65-0.65
Western CarolinaSC1.611.6144.8344.83-0.17-0.17
UMBCAE1.611.6113.7913.79-1.17-1.17
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.591.5958.6258.620.270.27
Wake ForestACC1.591.5941.9441.94-0.26-0.26
Western KentuckyCUSA1.591.5962.0762.070.380.38
GeorgiaSEC1.561.5667.7467.740.550.55
North DakotaBSky1.561.5622.2222.22-0.87-0.87
SeattleWAC1.561.5650.0050.000.000.00
SouthernSWAC1.561.5648.3948.39-0.05-0.05
St. John'sBE1.561.5663.3363.330.420.42
ChattanoogaSC0.200.2066.6766.670.070.07
MarquetteBE0.190.1940.6240.62-0.04-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.190.1968.5768.570.070.07
DukeACC0.190.1987.8887.880.150.15
SamfordSC0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.170.1758.0658.060.030.03
VirginiaACC0.170.1790.6290.620.140.14
WoffordSC0.150.1581.2581.250.100.10
UNC GreensboroSC0.150.1526.6726.67-0.07-0.07
VMISC0.150.1532.1432.14-0.05-0.05
MercerSC0.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
The CitadelSC0.150.1529.6329.63-0.06-0.06
MarshallCUSA0.150.1530.0030.00-0.06-0.06
SyracuseACC0.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.130.1317.2417.24-0.09-0.09
East Tennessee St.SC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Seton HallBE0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.120.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
North FloridaASun0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
GeorgetownBE0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.120.1264.7164.710.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Notre DameACC0.120.1285.2985.290.080.08
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.1027.2727.27-0.05-0.05
Stony BrookAE0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.1062.9662.960.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1090.9190.910.080.08
New HampshireAE0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
CreightonBE0.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.100.1094.1294.120.090.09
James MadisonCAA0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
ButlerBE0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.1016.6716.67-0.07-0.07
ClemsonACC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Miami FLACC0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Iowa St.B120.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1018.7518.75-0.06-0.06
PittsburghACC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.100.000.00-0.10-0.10
MissouriSEC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.1026.9226.92-0.04-0.04
FordhamA100.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
MontanaBSky0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
UMKCWAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
NortheasternCAA0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
TowsonCAA0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
ElonCAA0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
NJITind0.080.0856.0056.000.010.01
OhioMAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
HawaiiBW0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
TulaneAmer0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
HamptonMEAC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.070.07100.00100.000.070.07
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
OaklandHorz0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
AkronMAC0.070.0758.8258.820.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
AlbanyAE0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
BinghamtonAE0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
MaineAE0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
William & MaryCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
LibertyBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
DePaulBE0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0558.3358.330.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.050.0593.9493.940.040.04
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
AuburnSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
ColgatePat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
IPFWSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
CornellIvy0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DuquesneA100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
USCP120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UtahP120.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
WashingtonP120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
BelmontOVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0359.2659.260.000.00
DavidsonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
DetroitHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
AmericanPat0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0271.4371.430.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
ColoradoP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
RichmondA100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
TroySB0.020.0229.6329.63-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
WyomingMWC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Arizona St.P120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
LamarSlnd0.020.0242.3142.31-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0230.7730.77-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0275.8675.860.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
WagnerNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
KansasB120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
NavyPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00