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Through games of Mar 11, 2012.


Minnesota

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:89.0
Current RPI:89
Expected SOS:44
Current SOS:44
Current Record:19-14
Expected Record:19-14
Current Conf Record:7-13
Expected Conf Record:7-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:47
Expected OOC SOS:219



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1489.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Minnesota.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Bucknell (88.0)PatH70-58W100%0.0
11-14South Dakota St. (42.0)SumH71-55W100%0.0
11-17Fairfield (115.0)MAACH67-57W100%0.0
11-21Mount St. Mary's (292.0)NECH85-56W100%0.0
11-24DePaul (198.0)BEN85-86W100%0.0
11-25Indiana St. (129.0)MVCN76-69W100%0.0
11-27Dayton (81.0)A10N70-86L0%0.0
11-30Virginia Tech (116.0)ACCH58-55W100%0.0
12-3Southern California (270.0)P12H55-40W100%0.0
12-6Appalachian St. (258.0)SCH70-56W100%0.0
12-10St. Peter's (305.0)MAACH69-47W100%0.0
12-13Central Michigan (280.0)MACH76-56W100%0.0
12-22North Dakota St. (184.0)SumH63-59W100%0.0
12-27Illinois (92.0)B10A81-72L0%0.0
1-1Michigan (14.0)B10A61-56L0%0.0
1-4Iowa (130.0)B10H62-64L0%0.0
1-8Purdue (48.0)B10H66-79L0%0.0
1-12Indiana (17.0)B10A74-77W100%0.0
1-15Penn St. (161.0)B10A66-80W100%0.0
1-22Northwestern (63.0)B10H75-52W100%0.0
1-25Michigan St. (4.0)B10A68-52L0%0.0
1-28Illinois (92.0)B10H77-72W100%0.0
2-1Iowa (130.0)B10A63-59L0%0.0
2-5Nebraska (154.0)B10A61-69W100%0.0
2-9Wisconsin (23.0)B10H61-68L0%0.0
2-14Ohio St. (7.0)B10H68-78L0%0.0
2-18Northwestern (63.0)B10A64-53L0%0.0
2-22Michigan St. (4.0)B10H61-66L0%0.0
2-26Indiana (17.0)B10H50-69L0%0.0
2-28Wisconsin (23.0)B10A52-45L0%0.0
3-3Nebraska (154.0)B10H81-69W100%0.0
3-8Northwestern (63.0)B10N68-75W100%0.0
3-9Michigan (14.0)B10N73-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Minnesota's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Minnesota's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Minnesota.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MinnesotaB1026.2626.2651.7251.720.910.91
NorthwesternB105.155.1560.7160.711.101.10
IowaB103.813.8148.3948.39-0.12-0.12
Michigan St.B103.803.8077.4277.422.092.09
WisconsinB103.783.7870.9770.971.591.59
NebraskaB103.783.7842.8642.86-0.54-0.54
IllinoisB103.763.7653.3353.330.250.25
MichiganB103.763.7670.0070.001.501.50
IndianaB103.733.7377.4277.422.052.05
Ohio St.B102.442.4478.7978.791.401.40
Penn St.B102.372.3738.7138.71-0.53-0.53
PurdueB102.372.3762.5062.500.590.59
South Dakota St.Sum1.621.6280.6580.650.990.99
FairfieldMAAC1.611.6159.3859.380.300.30
Central MichiganMAC1.571.5733.3333.33-0.52-0.52
Southern CaliforniaP121.571.5719.3519.35-0.96-0.96
North Dakota St.Sum1.561.5655.5655.560.170.17
St. Peter'sMAAC1.561.5616.6716.67-1.04-1.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.541.5428.5728.57-0.66-0.66
DaytonA101.541.5461.2961.290.350.35
Indiana St.MVC1.541.5456.6756.670.210.21
Appalachian St.SC1.521.5239.2939.29-0.32-0.32
BucknellPat1.521.5274.1974.190.730.73
DePaulBE1.521.5240.0040.00-0.30-0.30
Virginia TechACC1.521.5250.0050.000.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
CreightonMVC0.220.2284.8584.850.150.15
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.190.1931.0331.03-0.07-0.07
DukeACC0.180.1881.8281.820.120.12
Central ConnecticutNEC0.170.1744.8344.83-0.02-0.02
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.170.1729.6329.63-0.07-0.07
Seton HallBE0.170.1762.5062.500.040.04
Loyola MDMAAC0.170.1775.0075.000.080.08
South DakotaSum0.150.1528.0028.00-0.07-0.07
OaklandSum0.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
MaristMAAC0.140.1443.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.140.1413.7913.79-0.10-0.10
BradleyMVC0.140.1421.8821.88-0.08-0.08
LehighPat0.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
North CarolinaACC0.140.1485.2985.290.100.10
Eastern MichiganMAC0.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
IUPUISum0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahSum0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.120.1239.3939.39-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
SienaMAAC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Stony BrookAE0.120.1270.0070.000.050.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.120.1263.3363.330.030.03
RiderMAAC0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.GWC0.120.1210.7110.71-0.09-0.09
Iowa St.B120.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
ClemsonACC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
Long IslandNEC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
ChattanoogaSC0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
WoffordSC0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.1037.0437.04-0.03-0.03
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.100.107.147.14-0.08-0.08
Rhode IslandA100.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Wake ForestACC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.100.1078.1278.120.050.05
MarylandACC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.100.1064.2964.290.030.03
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
CampbellBSth0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0916.6716.67-0.06-0.06
DrakeMVC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0958.0658.060.020.02
CornellIvy0.090.0940.7440.74-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.090.0941.9441.94-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
XavierA100.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
ButlerHorz0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
ColgatePat0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.090.0980.6580.650.060.06
VirginiaACC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
NC GreensboroSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0810.3410.34-0.06-0.06
East Tennessee St.ASun0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
MonmouthNEC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
North DakotaGWC0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
Texas ChristianMWC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
AmericanPat0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Louisiana St.SEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0783.8783.870.050.05
Miami FLACC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
ConnecticutBE0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
MississippiSEC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
SyracuseBE0.070.0793.9493.940.060.06
TempleA100.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
DuquesneA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
WashingtonP120.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Notre DameBE0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0738.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.070.0794.1294.120.060.06
Brigham YoungWCC0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0764.7164.710.020.02
BryantNEC0.050.056.676.67-0.05-0.05
College of CharlestonSC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
ElonSC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
WagnerNEC0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
QuinnipiacNEC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleBE0.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.056.456.45-0.04-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
CharlotteA100.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0513.7913.79-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
South FloridaBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ArmyPat0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
LipscombASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MemphisCUSA0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
MissouriB120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0532.0032.00-0.02-0.02
St. LouisA100.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
StanfordP120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.053.123.12-0.04-0.04
Washington St.P120.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Florida InternationalSB0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
South Carolina UpstateASun0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0523.0823.08-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.056.676.67-0.04-0.04
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.WAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
AlbanyAE0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
DavidsonSC0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
CincinnatiBE0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
OhioMAC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
PittsburghBE0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
RutgersBE0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Utah St.WAC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
VillanovaBE0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaBE0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Boston UniversityAE0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0219.2319.23-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
FordhamA100.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
George MasonCAA0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
MercerASun0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.020.0296.4396.430.020.02
NC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.020.0281.8281.820.010.01
High PointBSth0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
New HampshireAE0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Old DominionCAA0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00