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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Rutgers

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:178.0
Current RPI:178
Expected SOS:32
Current SOS:32
Current Record:10-22
Expected Record:10-22
Current Conf Record:2-17
Expected Conf Record:2-17
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-11
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-1
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:103
Expected OOC SOS:66



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-22178.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rutgers.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16George Washington (84.0)A10H53-70L0%0.0
11-19Fairleigh Dickinson (312.0)NECH61-44W100%0.0
11-23St. Francis NY (170.0)NECH76-73W100%0.0
11-25Saint Peter's (233.0)MAACH50-68L0%0.0
11-28Vanderbilt (104.0)SECN65-68W100%0.0
11-29Virginia (7.0)ACCN45-26L0%0.0
12-1Clemson (106.0)ACCA64-69W100%0.0
12-6Seton Hall (97.0)BEA81-54L0%0.0
12-9New Hampshire (193.0)AEH60-56W100%0.0
12-14Manhattan (168.0)MAACN63-55W100%0.0
12-20St. Francis PA (179.0)NECH68-73L0%0.0
12-23Sacred Heart (242.0)NECH79-54W100%0.0
12-28Monmouth (176.0)MAACA58-59W100%0.0
12-30Northwestern (125.0)B10H47-51L0%0.0
1-3Penn St. (108.0)B10H50-46W100%0.0
1-8Nebraska (158.0)B10A65-49L0%0.0
1-11Wisconsin (4.0)B10H67-62W100%0.0
1-14Maryland (13.0)B10A73-65L0%0.0
1-17Minnesota (98.0)B10A89-80L0%0.0
1-20Michigan (81.0)B10H50-54L0%0.0
1-24Penn St. (108.0)B10A79-51L0%0.0
1-29Michigan St. (23.0)B10H51-71L0%0.0
1-31Indiana (61.0)B10A72-64L0%0.0
2-3Illinois (73.0)B10A66-54L0%0.0
2-8Ohio St. (41.0)B10H60-79L0%0.0
2-12Purdue (55.0)B10H51-61L0%0.0
2-19Iowa (43.0)B10A81-47L0%0.0
2-22Indiana (61.0)B10H54-84L0%0.0
2-26Purdue (55.0)B10A92-85L0%0.0
3-3Maryland (13.0)B10H50-60L0%0.0
3-7Michigan (81.0)B10A79-69L0%0.0
3-11Minnesota (98.0)B10N80-68L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rutgers's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rutgers's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rutgers.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RutgersB1026.0726.0727.6327.63-11.66-11.66
Penn St.B103.803.8053.1253.120.240.24
MarylandB103.793.7980.6580.652.322.32
PurdueB103.773.7761.2961.290.850.85
IndianaB103.753.7558.0658.060.600.60
MinnesotaB103.723.7250.0050.000.000.00
MichiganB103.673.6744.8344.83-0.38-0.38
Ohio St.B102.312.3168.7568.750.860.86
WisconsinB102.282.2893.9493.942.012.01
Michigan St.B102.282.2866.6766.670.760.76
IllinoisB102.212.2158.0658.060.360.36
NebraskaB102.212.2140.0040.00-0.44-0.44
NorthwesternB102.192.1945.1645.16-0.21-0.21
IowaB102.182.1864.5264.520.630.63
St. Francis NYNEC1.771.7768.7568.750.660.66
Sacred HeartNEC1.771.7746.6746.67-0.12-0.12
St. Francis PANEC1.741.7448.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Saint Peter'sMAAC1.741.7445.4545.45-0.16-0.16
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.741.7425.9325.93-0.84-0.84
MonmouthMAAC1.731.7356.2556.250.220.22
ManhattanMAAC1.681.6861.2961.290.380.38
VirginiaACC1.661.6690.3290.321.341.34
George WashingtonA101.661.6662.5062.500.410.41
VanderbiltSEC1.611.6160.0060.000.320.32
Seton HallBE1.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
New HampshireAE1.591.5960.7160.710.340.34
ClemsonACC1.591.5953.3353.330.110.11
LIU BrooklynNEC0.280.2840.0040.00-0.06-0.06
Central ConnecticutNEC0.280.2816.1316.13-0.19-0.19
WagnerNEC0.280.2831.0331.03-0.10-0.10
BryantNEC0.260.2651.6151.610.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.260.2650.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.250.2557.5857.580.040.04
LouisvilleACC0.190.1975.0075.000.100.10
IonaMAAC0.190.1976.4776.470.100.10
RiderMAAC0.190.1965.6265.620.060.06
Florida St.ACC0.170.1751.5251.520.010.01
Notre DameACC0.170.1785.2985.290.120.12
MaristMAAC0.170.1721.8821.88-0.09-0.09
CanisiusMAAC0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.170.1722.5822.58-0.09-0.09
FordhamA100.170.1730.0030.00-0.07-0.07
UMBCAE0.150.1513.3313.33-0.11-0.11
North Carolina St.ACC0.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
MarquetteBE0.150.1540.6240.62-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
DuquesneA100.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.140.1426.6726.67-0.07-0.07
QuinnipiacMAAC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
SienaMAAC0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
HartfordAE0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
VillanovaBE0.130.1394.1294.120.110.11
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
SyracuseACC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
BrownIvy0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
North CarolinaACC0.120.1268.5768.570.050.05
SMUAmer0.120.1281.2581.250.080.08
PittsburghACC0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
La SalleA100.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
AlbanyAE0.110.1175.0075.000.050.05
UMass LowellAE0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
NJITind0.100.1056.0056.000.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
MissouriSEC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
BucknellPat0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.1010.3410.34-0.08-0.08
North FloridaASun0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
DukeACC0.100.1087.8887.880.070.07
OaklandHorz0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.080.0810.0010.00-0.06-0.06
BinghamtonAE0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
OregonP120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
DePaulBE0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0726.9226.92-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
WinthropBSth0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
DavidsonA100.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
George MasonA100.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0718.7518.75-0.04-0.04
VCUA100.070.0774.2974.290.030.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.070.000.00-0.07-0.07
VMISC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0764.7164.710.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
VermontAE0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
LafayettePat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
AmericanPat0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
ArizonaP120.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
AuburnSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
YaleIvy0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
NavyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
OhioMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
FurmanSC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0590.9190.910.040.04
SeattleWAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
IPFWSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0542.3142.31-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0575.8675.860.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
AkronMAC0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
USCP120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
LipscombASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0271.4371.430.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
ElonCAA0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
HarvardIvy0.020.0274.0774.070.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
West VirginiaB120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Green BayHorz0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
KansasB120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.020.0229.6329.63-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00