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Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


Rutgers

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:280.8
Current RPI:253
Expected SOS:92
Current SOS:66
Current Record:5-18
Expected Record:6-24
Current Conf Record:0-11
Expected Conf Record:1-17
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-2
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:275
Expected OOC SOS:231



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-20222.30.03%
9-21237.80.89%
8-22254.85.75%
7-23270.223.06%
6-24282.741.52%
5-25292.928.74%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rutgers.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Howard (295.2)MEACH82-70W100%0.0
11-19St. John's (233.1)BEA61-59L0%0.0
11-21Central Arkansas (320.8)SlndH87-84W100%0.0
11-23Creighton (78.8)BEN75-85L0%0.0
11-25Clemson (108.3)ACCN58-76L0%0.0
11-30Wake Forest (132.6)ACCH68-69L0%0.0
12-5Seton Hall (55.2)BEH55-84L0%0.0
12-8Central Connecticut (350.6)NECH75-59W100%0.0
12-12George Washington (56.0)A10A83-49L0%0.0
12-20Monmouth (40.4)MAACH67-73L0%0.0
12-23Fairleigh Dickinson (215.2)NECH72-64W100%0.0
12-28UMass Lowell (253.4)AEH89-66W100%0.0
12-30Indiana (31.4)B10H72-79L0%0.0
1-2Wisconsin (56.6)B10A79-57L0%0.0
1-6Maryland (5.3)B10A88-63L0%0.0
1-9Nebraska (149.2)B10H56-90L0%0.0
1-13Ohio St. (90.5)B10A94-68L0%0.0
1-18Purdue (14.5)B10H57-107L0%0.0
1-21Iowa (8.5)B10H76-90L0%0.0
1-27Michigan (47.5)B10A68-57L0%0.0
1-31Michigan St. (18.7)B10A96-62L0%0.0
2-3Illinois (156.9)B10H101-110L0%0.0
2-6Nebraska (149.2)B10A87-63L0%0.0
2-13Ohio St. (90.5)B10H0-014%-11.8
2-16Illinois (156.9)B10A0-010%-13.7
2-20Penn St. (131.5)B10H0-029%-6.1
2-23Minnesota (243.7)B10A0-016%-10.8
2-27Northwestern (120.7)B10A0-05%-18.4
3-2Michigan St. (18.7)B10H0-01%-23.8
3-5Minnesota (243.7)B10H0-035%-4.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rutgers's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rutgers's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rutgers.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RutgersB1026.1326.1014.2913.95-18.66-18.82
IllinoisB102.613.9343.4840.57-0.34-0.74
Ohio St.B102.493.9358.3352.980.410.23
MinnesotaB100.493.9325.0023.89-0.24-2.05
Michigan St.B102.583.9079.1780.331.502.37
NebraskaB104.753.9047.8347.37-0.21-0.21
IndianaB102.662.4379.1774.881.551.21
NorthwesternB100.492.3864.0060.970.140.52
Penn St.B100.452.3450.0045.960.00-0.19
PurdueB102.672.3279.1777.171.561.26
WisconsinB102.572.3260.8755.560.560.26
MichiganB102.532.2969.5765.600.990.72
IowaB102.612.2978.2678.151.481.29
MarylandB102.572.2986.9683.101.901.52
CreightonBE2.441.8662.5060.800.610.40
Seton HallBE2.351.8069.5766.980.920.61
St. John'sBE2.311.8021.7420.81-1.30-1.05
Central ConnecticutNEC2.271.7613.0413.74-1.68-1.27
ClemsonACC2.221.7556.5256.970.290.24
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC2.221.7254.5555.710.200.20
HowardMEAC2.271.7238.1040.42-0.54-0.33
UMass LowellAE2.221.7239.1339.08-0.48-0.38
George WashingtonA102.221.7273.9171.031.060.72
Wake ForestACC2.261.7239.1337.82-0.49-0.42
Central ArkansasSlnd2.221.7026.3231.00-1.05-0.64
MonmouthMAAC2.171.6779.1780.541.271.02
ProvidenceBE0.220.2772.0069.130.100.10
Notre DameACC0.310.2570.8367.930.130.09
VillanovaBE0.360.2587.5086.850.270.18
GeorgetownBE0.360.2556.0052.870.040.01
DePaulBE0.180.2533.3334.02-0.06-0.08
WagnerNEC0.270.2360.8762.520.060.06
Boston CollegeACC0.130.2229.1726.69-0.06-0.10
XavierBE0.270.2287.5081.850.200.14
MarquetteBE0.270.2264.0057.890.080.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.180.2042.3146.12-0.03-0.02
ButlerBE0.220.1970.8369.000.090.07
Sacred HeartNEC0.140.1733.3336.31-0.05-0.05
ConnecticutAmer0.220.1770.8370.130.090.07
VirginiaACC0.180.1683.3378.460.120.09
LIU BrooklynNEC0.190.1550.0051.280.000.00
UMBCAE0.190.1423.0825.87-0.10-0.07
BryantNEC0.230.1424.0024.92-0.12-0.07
St. Francis NYNEC0.230.1440.0043.49-0.05-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.230.1452.1751.830.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.130.1424.0026.44-0.07-0.07
MassachusettsA100.240.1443.4842.40-0.03-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.140.1429.1733.75-0.06-0.05
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.180.1440.9143.32-0.03-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.050.144.357.72-0.04-0.12
Robert MorrisNEC0.140.1226.9228.60-0.06-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.140.1114.2920.64-0.10-0.07
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.140.1114.2924.90-0.10-0.06
FordhamA100.180.1152.3850.690.010.00
PittsburghACC0.140.1172.7367.600.070.04
TempleAmer0.090.1165.2262.370.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.180.119.0912.26-0.15-0.08
Florida St.ACC0.180.1166.6763.300.060.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.1150.0048.950.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.180.1168.0064.090.070.03
Virginia TechACC0.090.1152.0048.920.00-0.00
DukeACC0.130.1175.0071.840.070.05
North CarolinaACC0.140.1183.3378.380.090.06
LouisvilleACC0.130.1179.1775.990.080.06
Miami FLACC0.180.1182.6177.580.120.06
South DakotaSum0.050.1144.0043.56-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.180.1158.3357.250.030.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.1124.0025.68-0.07-0.05
HartfordAE0.140.0924.0024.55-0.07-0.04
MaineAE0.140.0932.0031.16-0.05-0.03
CornellIvy0.140.0942.1140.24-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.040.0922.2231.22-0.02-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.110.0926.3232.40-0.05-0.03
VermontAE0.130.0952.0054.860.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.090.0852.9452.100.010.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.140.0845.4554.18-0.010.01
UTSACUSA0.140.0813.0412.96-0.11-0.06
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.140.0835.0034.83-0.04-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.040.0852.1754.130.000.01
ArmyPat0.140.0854.1754.290.010.01
OklahomaB120.140.0886.9682.620.110.05
Georgia TechACC0.050.0854.1752.000.000.00
UMKCWAC0.050.0828.5732.75-0.02-0.03
YaleIvy0.090.0873.6874.620.040.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0845.4549.05-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0860.8762.470.010.02
VanderbiltSEC0.130.0858.3359.970.020.02
Iowa St.B120.090.0870.8367.970.040.03
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0824.0024.61-0.05-0.04
RichmondA100.090.0856.5255.820.010.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0840.0042.04-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.130.0886.9682.160.100.05
Western IllinoisSum0.130.0831.5832.04-0.05-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0842.3144.53-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.130.0872.0071.570.060.03
DuquesneA100.050.0860.8756.270.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.040.0840.0043.39-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0854.1754.090.010.01
FloridaSEC0.090.0866.6766.320.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0820.0022.25-0.05-0.04
MissouriSEC0.050.0833.3330.28-0.02-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.130.089.0917.14-0.11-0.05
SienaMAAC0.130.0865.3864.970.040.02
TennesseeSEC0.130.0850.0048.130.00-0.00
VCUA100.090.0870.8371.050.040.03
VMISC0.040.0819.0519.67-0.03-0.05
AlbanyAE0.050.0673.0873.780.020.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.110.0686.3684.220.080.04
HamptonMEAC0.050.0659.0961.280.010.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0659.0956.870.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0618.1821.11-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0643.4850.64-0.010.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0617.6526.67-0.04-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0645.0049.27-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.090.0682.6183.010.060.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.0650.0049.760.00-0.00
NJITASun0.090.0656.0055.640.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0625.0033.23-0.05-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.090.0672.2274.700.040.03
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0666.6765.240.020.02
LafayettePat0.090.0620.8321.68-0.05-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0629.1733.11-0.04-0.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0652.1754.100.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.0676.1972.370.050.03
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0659.0955.160.020.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0637.5037.41-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0658.3358.580.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0645.8342.30-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0686.9680.420.070.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0673.9174.640.000.03
Texas TechB120.000.0660.8755.310.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0673.9176.700.040.03
BucknellPat0.050.0552.1754.940.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0543.4845.21-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.090.0520.0019.73-0.05-0.03
UCLAP120.090.0556.5253.400.010.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0530.4332.26-0.03-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.040.0543.4837.80-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.040.0560.8760.440.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0583.3383.710.030.04
DavidsonA100.050.0561.9058.170.010.01
DrexelCAA0.040.0513.0416.42-0.03-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0526.0927.89-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.050.0533.3333.63-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.040.0515.0018.13-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.059.5210.67-0.04-0.04
IonaMAAC0.040.0560.8760.670.010.01
IUPUISum0.090.0538.4638.50-0.02-0.01
KansasB120.040.0582.6179.200.030.03
KentuckySEC0.040.0575.0072.610.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.040.0572.7370.520.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.040.0545.4543.23-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.090.0521.7424.25-0.05-0.03
MemphisAmer0.040.0558.3359.310.010.01
MercerSC0.040.0566.6767.110.010.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0560.8759.830.010.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0562.5064.120.010.02
NortheasternCAA0.040.0548.0048.60-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.040.0560.0057.650.010.01
OaklandHorz0.040.0565.3865.510.010.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.090.0534.7834.97-0.03-0.02
SamfordSC0.090.0540.0041.68-0.02-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0583.3379.820.030.03
USCP120.090.0578.2673.130.050.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.040.0568.1871.350.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0531.8234.54-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0340.9138.82-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0331.8236.11-0.02-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0356.0056.510.010.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0347.6249.39-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0325.0024.93-0.02-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0335.0038.57-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0385.0083.440.030.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0330.0029.13-0.02-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0319.0525.90-0.03-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0338.1037.67-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0372.2275.600.020.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0362.5057.730.010.00
TulsaAmer0.050.0366.6764.700.020.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0368.1867.110.020.01
BrownIvy0.050.0331.5831.01-0.02-0.01
PennIvy0.050.0338.8937.69-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0360.8755.980.010.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0350.0052.940.000.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0312.0011.95-0.03-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0337.5042.32-0.01-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0321.7422.75-0.03-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0357.1457.670.010.00
DartmouthIvy0.050.0331.5831.68-0.02-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0320.8323.28-0.03-0.01
ElonCAA0.050.0350.0050.070.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0356.0054.080.010.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0347.8351.92-0.000.00
LSUSEC0.050.0362.5059.080.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0350.0051.110.000.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0362.5058.940.010.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0331.8235.12-0.02-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0323.8125.49-0.02-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0386.9682.920.030.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0365.2264.340.010.01
TexasB120.050.0366.6762.200.020.01
TroySB0.050.0322.7324.38-0.02-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0326.0928.41-0.02-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0321.7422.42-0.03-0.02
WoffordSC0.050.0345.8348.12-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.040.0340.0040.34-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.040.0354.1751.700.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.040.0340.0042.85-0.01-0.00
ColoradoP120.000.0370.8365.580.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.040.0339.1341.05-0.01-0.00
Green BayHorz0.050.0356.5257.700.010.00
IPFWSum0.040.0370.8368.660.020.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.040.0325.0026.38-0.02-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0365.2260.600.000.01
La SalleA100.000.0319.0520.30-0.00-0.02
LehighPat0.040.0339.1342.83-0.01-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.040.0345.8343.78-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.0333.3335.18-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.040.0352.1753.440.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.040.0358.3360.710.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0345.0048.13-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.040.0331.8232.46-0.02-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.040.0358.3363.180.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0383.3381.280.030.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0334.7832.39-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0316.6719.49-0.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0372.7370.410.000.01
UCFAmer0.050.0350.0044.650.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.040.0352.1755.070.000.00