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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Rutgers

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:192.0
Current RPI:192
Expected SOS:61
Current SOS:61
Current Record:11-21
Expected Record:11-21
Current Conf Record:6-14
Expected Conf Record:6-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-2
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:247
Expected OOC SOS:131



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-21192.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rutgers.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Florida A&M (295.0)MEACH92-84W100%0.0
11-11UAB (152.0)CUSAA79-76L0%0.0
11-14Yale (147.0)IvyH72-71W100%0.0
11-18Canisius (96.0)MAACH66-51W100%0.0
11-19Drexel (132.0)CAAH59-70L0%0.0
11-23William & Mary (119.0)CAAH62-72L0%0.0
11-26Fairleigh Dickinson (269.0)NECH72-73L0%0.0
12-4George Washington (29.0)A10A93-87L0%0.0
12-8Seton Hall (128.0)BEH71-77L0%0.0
12-11Princeton (122.0)IvyH73-78L0%0.0
12-14UNC Greensboro (301.0)SCH89-72W100%0.0
12-22Army (235.0)PatH75-72W100%0.0
1-1Temple (175.0)AmerH71-66W100%0.0
1-4Louisville (19.0)AmerH76-83L0%0.0
1-11Cincinnati (21.0)AmerA71-51L0%0.0
1-15UCF (220.0)AmerH85-75W100%0.0
1-19Houston (143.0)AmerA77-55L0%0.0
1-21SMU (53.0)AmerA70-56L0%0.0
1-25Connecticut (22.0)AmerH71-82L0%0.0
1-29Temple (175.0)AmerA88-82L0%0.0
2-1Houston (143.0)AmerH93-70W100%0.0
2-4Memphis (37.0)AmerA101-69L0%0.0
2-8South Florida (232.0)AmerA69-79W100%0.0
2-14SMU (53.0)AmerH65-77L0%0.0
2-16Louisville (19.0)AmerA102-54L0%0.0
2-20Memphis (37.0)AmerH59-64L0%0.0
2-26UCF (220.0)AmerA67-65L0%0.0
3-1South Florida (232.0)AmerH74-73W100%0.0
3-5Connecticut (22.0)AmerA69-63L0%0.0
3-8Cincinnati (21.0)AmerH66-70L0%0.0
3-12South Florida (232.0)AmerN72-68W100%0.0
3-13Louisville (19.0)AmerN92-31L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rutgers's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rutgers's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rutgers.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RutgersAmer26.4326.4327.0827.08-12.11-12.11
LouisvilleAmer5.625.6283.8783.873.803.80
South FloridaAmer5.545.5441.3841.38-0.96-0.96
ConnecticutAmer4.204.2075.0075.002.102.10
HoustonAmer4.124.1251.6151.610.130.13
CincinnatiAmer4.104.1080.6580.652.512.51
UCFAmer4.094.0937.0437.04-1.06-1.06
TempleAmer4.084.0827.5927.59-1.83-1.83
SMUAmer4.054.0570.0070.001.621.62
MemphisAmer4.044.0468.9768.971.531.53
Florida A&MMEAC1.691.6941.3841.38-0.29-0.29
PrincetonIvy1.671.6769.2369.230.640.64
YaleIvy1.671.6753.8553.850.130.13
UABCUSA1.641.6453.5753.570.120.12
William & MaryCAA1.611.6160.0060.000.320.32
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.611.6128.5728.57-0.69-0.69
DrexelCAA1.611.6151.7251.720.060.06
Seton HallBE1.591.5948.4848.48-0.05-0.05
ArmyPat1.561.5648.2848.28-0.05-0.05
CanisiusMAAC1.561.5667.7467.740.550.55
George WashingtonA101.561.5674.1974.190.760.76
UNC GreensboroSC1.561.5639.2939.29-0.33-0.33
HofstraCAA0.300.3030.3030.30-0.12-0.12
College of CharlestonCAA0.200.2041.9441.94-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.180.183.703.70-0.17-0.17
StetsonASun0.180.1822.5822.58-0.10-0.10
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.180.1816.6716.67-0.12-0.12
TowsonCAA0.180.1867.7467.740.060.06
Oklahoma St.B120.170.1763.6463.640.050.05
ColumbiaIvy0.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
PennIvy0.170.1728.5728.57-0.07-0.07
HarvardIvy0.160.1686.2186.210.120.12
NortheasternCAA0.160.1634.3834.38-0.05-0.05
DelawareCAA0.150.1573.5373.530.070.07
HowardMEAC0.150.1519.3519.35-0.09-0.09
George MasonA100.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.150.1570.5970.590.060.06
LafayettePat0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
HartfordAE0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
SienaMAAC0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
FIUCUSA0.120.1246.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.120.1280.6580.650.070.07
VillanovaBE0.120.1287.5087.500.090.09
DetroitHorz0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.120.1221.8821.88-0.07-0.07
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
BrownIvy0.120.1251.8551.850.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.120.1238.4638.46-0.03-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.110.1116.1316.13-0.07-0.07
ValparaisoHorz0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
BucknellPat0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
ElonSC0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
RiceCUSA0.100.1017.8617.86-0.07-0.07
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Kent St.MAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SC0.100.1019.2319.23-0.06-0.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
LehighPat0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1083.8783.870.070.07
AlabamaSEC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.100.1067.6567.650.030.03
MaineAE0.100.1017.8617.86-0.06-0.06
FloridaSEC0.100.1094.1294.120.090.09
Texas A&MSEC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Texas St.SB0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
StanfordP120.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
XavierBE0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
BryantNEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Georgia SouthernSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DavidsonSC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
Miami FLACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
LSUSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Holy CrossPat0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
NebraskaB100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
UTSACUSA0.070.0722.2222.22-0.04-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0721.2121.21-0.04-0.04
CreightonBE0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
MarquetteBE0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
MarylandACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
UMKCWAC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckySB0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
LibertyBSth0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
High PointBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
AmericanPat0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
ColgatePat0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
MercerASun0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0546.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
TexasB120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
NJITind0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
UICHorz0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
MaristMAAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0513.7913.79-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Texas TechB120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
AlbanyAE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
TroySB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
UCLAP120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
VMIBSth0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
DaytonA100.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
DuquesneA100.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Kansas St.B120.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
LamarSlnd0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
South DakotaSum0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01