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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Rutgers

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:177.0
Current RPI:177
Expected SOS:92
Current SOS:92
Current Record:14-18
Expected Record:14-18
Current Conf Record:4-16
Expected Conf Record:4-16
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-9
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:120
Expected OOC SOS:338



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-18177.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rutgers.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Drexel (308.0)CAAH87-66W100%0.0
11-17DePaul (239.0)BEA59-66W100%0.0
11-20Niagara (275.0)MAACH78-65W100%0.0
11-23North Texas (339.0)CUSAH66-53W100%0.0
11-25Hartford (327.0)AEH77-75W100%0.0
11-30Miami FL (41.0)ACCA73-61L0%0.0
12-3Morgan St. (326.0)MEACH72-58W100%0.0
12-6Central Connecticut (344.0)NECH79-37W100%0.0
12-10Stony Brook (176.0)AEA66-71W100%0.0
12-14Fairleigh Dickinson (273.0)NECH82-69W100%0.0
12-18Fordham (215.0)A10N68-53W100%0.0
12-23Seton Hall (43.0)BEA72-61L0%0.0
12-27Wisconsin (35.0)B10A72-52L0%0.0
1-1Penn St. (101.0)B10H47-60L0%0.0
1-4Michigan St. (51.0)B10A93-65L0%0.0
1-8Iowa (81.0)B10A68-62L0%0.0
1-12Northwestern (50.0)B10H60-69L0%0.0
1-15Indiana (79.0)B10A76-57L0%0.0
1-21Nebraska (107.0)B10H65-64W100%0.0
1-24Maryland (36.0)B10A67-55L0%0.0
1-28Wisconsin (35.0)B10H54-61L0%0.0
1-31Iowa (81.0)B10H63-83L0%0.0
2-4Penn St. (101.0)B10A68-70W100%0.0
2-8Ohio St. (90.0)B10A70-64L0%0.0
2-11Minnesota (20.0)B10H63-72L0%0.0
2-14Purdue (19.0)B10A74-55L0%0.0
2-18Northwestern (50.0)B10A69-65L0%0.0
2-22Michigan (25.0)B10H64-68L0%0.0
2-28Maryland (36.0)B10H59-79L0%0.0
3-4Illinois (62.0)B10H62-59W100%0.0
3-8Ohio St. (90.0)B10N57-66W100%0.0
3-9Northwestern (50.0)B10N83-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rutgers's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rutgers's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rutgers.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RutgersB1026.1626.1640.8540.85-4.79-4.79
NorthwesternB105.325.3264.5264.521.541.54
MarylandB103.793.7972.4172.411.701.70
WisconsinB103.793.7971.8871.881.661.66
Ohio St.B103.753.7553.3353.330.250.25
Penn St.B103.733.7345.1645.16-0.36-0.36
IowaB103.733.7353.3353.330.250.25
IndianaB102.322.3253.1253.120.150.15
MichiganB102.282.2867.6567.650.810.81
MinnesotaB102.282.2871.8871.881.001.00
IllinoisB102.282.2856.6756.670.300.30
NebraskaB102.282.2837.9337.93-0.55-0.55
PurdueB102.252.2577.4277.421.241.24
Michigan St.B102.232.2356.2556.250.280.28
HartfordAE1.721.7229.0329.03-0.72-0.72
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.711.7135.7135.71-0.49-0.49
Seton HallBE1.711.7164.5264.520.500.50
Central ConnecticutNEC1.691.6921.4321.43-0.97-0.97
DePaulBE1.681.6829.0329.03-0.70-0.70
Stony BrookAE1.661.6660.0060.000.330.33
NiagaraMAAC1.641.6431.2531.25-0.62-0.62
DrexelCAA1.641.6426.6726.67-0.76-0.76
North TexasCUSA1.641.6422.2222.22-0.91-0.91
FordhamA101.621.6240.0040.00-0.32-0.32
Morgan St.MEAC1.611.6146.4346.43-0.11-0.11
Miami FLACC1.561.5664.5264.520.450.45
St. John'sBE0.220.2242.4242.42-0.03-0.03
AlbanyAE0.200.2060.6160.610.040.04
GeorgetownBE0.190.1943.7543.75-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.190.1961.2961.290.040.04
ButlerBE0.190.1974.1974.190.090.09
TowsonCAA0.180.1859.3859.380.030.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.180.1861.2961.290.040.04
BryantNEC0.180.1835.4835.48-0.05-0.05
CreightonBE0.170.1772.7372.730.080.08
Notre DameACC0.170.1773.5373.530.080.08
WagnerNEC0.160.1651.7251.720.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.160.1640.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.150.1526.6726.67-0.07-0.07
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.150.1555.8855.880.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.150.1531.0331.03-0.06-0.06
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
UMass LowellAE0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
ProvidenceBE0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
VillanovaBE0.150.1591.1891.180.120.12
QuinnipiacMAAC0.150.1532.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Chicago St.WAC0.140.1410.3410.34-0.11-0.11
St. Francis PANEC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.1342.4242.42-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.130.1325.0025.00-0.06-0.06
MaineAE0.130.1319.3519.35-0.08-0.08
DuquesneA100.120.1231.2531.25-0.05-0.05
PittsburghACC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
VirginiaACC0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
XavierBE0.120.1261.7661.760.030.03
DaytonA100.120.1276.6776.670.060.06
DukeACC0.120.1277.1477.140.070.07
North CarolinaACC0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
IUPUISum0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.120.1221.8821.88-0.07-0.07
St. Francis NYNEC0.110.1110.0010.00-0.09-0.09
CharlotteCUSA0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1040.7440.74-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
RichmondA100.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1017.8617.86-0.06-0.06
ManhattanMAAC0.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
UMBCAE0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
VermontAE0.100.1084.8584.850.070.07
George MasonA100.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
UCLAP120.100.1087.8887.880.070.07
Virginia TechACC0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
George WashingtonA100.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
SyracuseACC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
TexasB120.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
PennIvy0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
HofstraCAA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.080.0828.1228.12-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
DelawareCAA0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
IonaMAAC0.070.0764.7164.710.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0738.4638.46-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
NJITASun0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
NavyPat0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0760.7160.710.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
RiceCUSA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
AmericanPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
ElonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
ColgatePat0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0513.3313.33-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0361.5461.540.010.01
LafayettePat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
CaliforniaP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
HawaiiBW0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0219.2319.23-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0229.4129.41-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
ArizonaP120.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
Fort WayneSum0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
KentuckySEC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
LibertyBSth0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
FurmanSC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
SMUAmer0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02