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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Rutgers

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:141.7
Current RPI:144
Expected SOS:59
Current SOS:77
Current Record:12-12
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:4-7
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.10%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:201
Expected OOC SOS:239



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1278.00.08%
18-1392.20.48%
17-14105.43.78%
16-15119.515.32%
15-16133.730.01%
14-17149.431.23%
13-18165.916.09%
12-19181.93.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rutgers.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Dartmouth (320.3)IvyH62-56W100%0.0
11-15Miami FL (64.4)ACCA72-57L0%0.0
11-17Sacred Heart (242.3)NECH91-75W100%0.0
11-20Hampton (307.2)MEACH66-52W100%0.0
11-22Illinois St. (109.5)MVCN70-76L0%0.0
11-23Richmond (135.3)A10N53-58L0%0.0
11-28MD Baltimore County (332.6)AEH94-56W100%0.0
12-3Louisiana St. (85.2)SECH50-55L0%0.0
12-7Princeton (117.6)IvyH57-59L0%0.0
12-12Monmouth (275.8)NECH81-66W100%0.0
12-17Stony Brook (154.7)AEN58-67W100%0.0
12-22NJ Inst of Technology (294.9)GWCH77-53W100%0.0
12-29Florida (14.9)SECH85-83W100%0.0
1-1South Florida (96.1)BEA67-65L0%0.0
1-4West Virginia (31.4)BEH64-85L0%0.0
1-7Connecticut (27.1)BEH67-60W100%0.0
1-11Pittsburgh (74.5)BEA39-62W100%0.0
1-14West Virginia (31.4)BEA84-60L0%0.0
1-16Notre Dame (66.5)BEH65-58W100%0.0
1-21Georgetown (13.9)BEA52-50L0%0.0
1-25DePaul (187.2)BEH64-69L0%0.0
1-28Cincinnati (89.8)BEH61-54W100%0.0
2-1Providence (146.8)BEA78-67L0%0.0
2-4Louisville (25.3)BEA78-66L0%0.0
2-8Seton Hall (53.1)BEH0-049%-0.4
2-15Notre Dame (66.5)BEA0-025%-7.4
2-19Syracuse (2.1)BEH0-015%-11.3
2-22Marquette (15.5)BEA0-012%-12.8
2-25Seton Hall (53.1)BEA0-026%-7.1
3-1Villanova (98.5)BEH0-053%0.8
3-3St. John's (151.1)BEH0-072%6.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rutgers's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rutgers's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rutgers.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RutgersBE26.2225.9942.8640.05-3.75-5.17
Notre DameBE2.453.7868.1864.380.891.09
West VirginiaBE4.413.7661.9062.771.050.96
Seton HallBE0.473.7365.2263.800.141.03
ConnecticutBE2.412.1971.4366.201.030.71
St. John'sBE0.472.1743.4840.68-0.06-0.40
MarquetteBE0.332.1779.1775.590.191.11
GeorgetownBE2.552.1780.0076.541.531.15
DePaulBE2.322.1747.6240.86-0.11-0.40
PittsburghBE2.452.1763.6460.100.670.44
SyracuseBE0.412.1795.8392.240.381.83
VillanovaBE0.322.1745.4546.05-0.03-0.17
ProvidenceBE2.272.1454.5548.610.21-0.06
CincinnatiBE2.412.1472.7367.661.090.76
LouisvilleBE2.322.1477.2771.741.260.93
South FloridaBE2.322.1452.3846.830.11-0.14
Sacred HeartNEC2.311.7745.8347.41-0.19-0.09
DartmouthIvy2.131.7215.0017.79-1.49-1.11
MD Baltimore CountyAE2.131.7014.2916.94-1.52-1.12
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC2.131.7035.2939.97-0.63-0.34
Stony BrookAE2.171.6970.0070.660.870.70
PrincetonIvy2.081.6744.4451.12-0.230.04
FloridaSEC2.131.6786.3680.221.551.01
MonmouthNEC2.121.6729.1729.87-0.89-0.67
RichmondA102.171.6747.8346.77-0.09-0.11
HamptonMEAC2.171.6638.1039.81-0.52-0.34
Louisiana St.SEC2.131.6657.1455.800.300.19
Miami FLACC2.171.6663.1658.590.570.29
Illinois St.MVC2.081.6160.8760.750.450.35
AlbanyAE0.330.2260.0060.420.070.05
YaleIvy0.190.2272.2263.190.090.06
St. Francis NYNEC0.140.2256.5255.950.020.03
New HampshireAE0.230.2035.0038.58-0.07-0.04
MaineAE0.240.1950.0049.730.00-0.00
PennsylvaniaIvy0.150.1954.5556.840.010.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.240.198.7012.13-0.20-0.15
BrownIvy0.230.1927.2723.80-0.11-0.10
BryantNEC0.180.188.3310.86-0.15-0.14
Longwoodind0.150.1730.0027.84-0.06-0.08
VermontAE0.190.1760.0062.490.040.04
ColumbiaIvy0.200.1755.0054.800.020.02
HarvardIvy0.190.1790.4887.910.150.13
RiderMAAC0.280.1637.5038.52-0.07-0.04
MississippiSEC0.190.1663.6456.710.050.02
AuburnSEC0.090.1656.5248.810.01-0.00
WagnerNEC0.230.1682.6184.570.150.11
Robert MorrisNEC0.220.1668.0070.030.080.06
VanderbiltSEC0.130.1669.5765.870.050.05
GeorgiaSEC0.140.1645.4541.20-0.01-0.03
Chicago St.GWC0.190.144.769.95-0.18-0.12
CornellIvy0.150.1436.8441.45-0.04-0.02
Boston UniversityAE0.150.1448.0051.88-0.010.01
HartfordAE0.140.1417.3920.97-0.09-0.08
Boston CollegeACC0.190.1430.4326.44-0.07-0.06
Florida St.ACC0.150.1472.7371.710.070.06
AmericanPat0.190.1465.2263.790.060.04
Long IslandNEC0.140.1470.8371.050.060.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.040.1362.5062.490.010.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.1368.1869.680.030.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.180.1378.2672.340.100.06
TennesseeSEC0.140.1345.4544.66-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.130.1340.9134.50-0.02-0.04
KentuckySEC0.090.1395.8392.570.080.11
St. Francis PANEC0.170.1321.7422.76-0.10-0.07
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.110.1219.0524.61-0.07-0.06
BinghamtonAE0.150.120.004.02-0.15-0.11
LafayettePat0.200.1143.4842.95-0.03-0.02
MemphisCUSA0.200.1169.5771.510.080.05
NorthwesternB100.100.1161.9055.140.020.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.1170.8364.420.040.03
IndianaB100.140.1175.0075.780.070.06
BucknellPat0.150.1173.9175.000.070.05
AlabamaSEC0.100.1168.1869.100.040.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.150.1119.0522.37-0.09-0.06
Morehead St.OVC0.190.1145.4546.99-0.02-0.01
MarylandACC0.100.1159.0950.820.020.00
Wake ForestACC0.040.1147.8343.66-0.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.180.1140.9142.05-0.03-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.140.1169.5765.150.060.03
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.090.1180.0078.060.050.06
Central ConnecticutNEC0.170.1145.4545.70-0.02-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.1135.2939.85-0.01-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.180.1154.1757.200.010.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.1050.0058.160.000.02
South CarolinaSEC0.140.1040.9139.56-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.140.1059.0959.720.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.1026.0928.60-0.04-0.04
Utah ValleyGWC0.110.0954.5557.690.010.01
ColgatePat0.110.0930.4329.50-0.04-0.04
MassachusettsA100.150.0973.9168.580.070.03
NortheasternCAA0.050.0847.8348.56-0.00-0.00
NC GreensboroSC0.150.0834.7833.46-0.04-0.03
HowardMEAC0.140.0818.1822.22-0.09-0.05
North CarolinaACC0.090.0886.9683.160.070.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.140.0825.0037.58-0.07-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.140.0842.1149.81-0.02-0.00
CharlotteA100.100.0850.0049.450.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.0860.8759.760.030.02
Virginia TechACC0.040.0856.5255.200.010.01
DaytonA100.000.0860.8760.960.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0862.5061.500.020.02
La SalleA100.050.0870.8368.820.020.03
MissouriB120.050.0891.3087.180.040.06
William & MaryCAA0.090.0812.5013.44-0.07-0.06
DetroitHorz0.050.0847.8349.03-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.040.0834.7832.08-0.01-0.03
QuinnipiacNEC0.120.0856.5257.150.020.01
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.060.0647.8347.87-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistGWC0.060.0625.0028.52-0.03-0.03
North DakotaGWC0.060.0633.3341.31-0.02-0.01
ArmyPat0.110.0640.9141.72-0.02-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0668.0069.070.020.02
ElonSC0.100.0650.0047.590.00-0.00
KansasB120.100.0678.2678.390.050.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.0652.3857.860.000.01
IUPUISum0.090.0534.7835.50-0.03-0.02
Florida AtlanticSB0.100.0536.3639.72-0.03-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.100.0539.1342.12-0.02-0.01
VirginiaACC0.100.0581.8276.800.060.03
DukeACC0.000.0586.3683.090.000.04
North FloridaASun0.100.0545.8346.68-0.01-0.00
Virginia Military InstBSth0.090.0545.0044.15-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.040.0538.1042.78-0.01-0.01
CreightonMVC0.090.0587.5085.410.070.04
DelawareCAA0.000.0547.8350.65-0.000.00
DrakeMVC0.040.0552.1750.090.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0545.4544.02-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.040.0556.5254.220.010.00
MercerASun0.000.0570.8371.640.000.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0526.3229.71-0.04-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0534.7832.06-0.03-0.02
St. Peter'sMAAC0.000.0521.7424.58-0.00-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.040.0582.6180.420.030.03
BradleyMVC0.040.0524.0024.86-0.02-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0517.3924.41-0.06-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0554.5554.300.010.00
IllinoisB100.090.0572.7364.430.040.02
LibertyBSth0.090.0527.2727.21-0.04-0.02
LipscombASun0.090.0543.4843.82-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCAA0.090.0560.0058.290.020.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0510.0014.93-0.07-0.04
St. LouisA100.000.0577.2777.670.000.03
TempleA100.040.0577.2775.060.020.03
Western KentuckySB0.090.0534.7834.48-0.03-0.02
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0556.5257.720.010.01
AkronMAC0.090.0568.1867.910.030.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0516.6723.02-0.06-0.03
ArizonaP120.050.0566.6768.550.020.02
BaylorB120.090.0590.9183.850.070.04
DuquesneA100.090.0559.0956.350.020.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0581.8281.490.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0517.3922.00-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.090.0572.7368.280.040.02
Kent St.MAC0.090.0571.4369.050.040.02
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0571.4373.350.040.02
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0580.7780.750.060.03
Rhode IslandA100.090.0520.8320.60-0.05-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0526.3229.79-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MB120.050.0552.3846.150.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0518.1821.13-0.06-0.03
UCLAP120.040.0554.5556.790.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.090.0541.6740.61-0.02-0.01
XavierA100.050.0565.2263.740.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0333.3334.47-0.02-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0368.4266.450.020.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0379.1778.100.030.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0345.4545.55-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0335.0039.29-0.02-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0317.3919.81-0.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0328.5734.20-0.02-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0350.0048.360.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0350.0048.900.00-0.00
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.050.0335.0035.31-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.050.0377.2773.450.030.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0337.5041.54-0.01-0.00
PurdueB100.050.0365.2260.580.020.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0356.5253.770.010.00
TowsonCAA0.050.034.005.26-0.04-0.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0330.4331.43-0.02-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.040.0343.4844.25-0.01-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.050.0342.8641.13-0.01-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.050.0350.0056.760.000.00
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0371.4366.600.020.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0381.8280.430.030.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0372.2271.970.020.01
Fresno St.WAC0.040.0339.1344.52-0.01-0.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0340.0041.30-0.01-0.00
GramblingSWAC0.050.0315.0015.73-0.03-0.02
High PointBSth0.050.0331.8232.75-0.02-0.01
HoustonCUSA0.050.0347.6244.63-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0340.0040.18-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.050.0319.0521.29-0.03-0.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0334.7833.43-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0320.0019.96-0.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0369.5761.310.020.01
NC AshevilleBSth0.050.0368.1867.640.020.01
NC WilmingtonCAA0.040.0339.1336.10-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0325.0023.75-0.02-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0338.8943.93-0.00-0.00
North TexasSB0.050.0350.0050.010.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.035.267.30-0.04-0.02
OaklandSum0.000.0348.0050.21-0.000.00
Penn St.B100.050.0341.6738.67-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0328.5726.30-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0352.3852.870.000.00
Southern MississippiCUSA0.050.0385.7182.180.030.02
Texas TechB120.050.0331.8225.98-0.02-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0335.0035.26-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0342.8639.66-0.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0330.0037.30-0.02-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0337.5038.33-0.01-0.01
ButlerHorz0.050.0350.0050.800.000.00
College of CharlestonSC0.050.0358.3359.980.010.01
DavidsonSC0.040.0376.1976.760.020.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0340.9138.38-0.00-0.01
George MasonCAA0.040.0376.0072.500.020.01
IonaMAAC0.040.0379.1780.100.030.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0373.9168.430.020.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0319.0525.52-0.03-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0334.7838.42-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0361.9067.230.010.01
LehighPat0.000.0373.9174.910.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0330.0034.15-0.02-0.01
NavyPat0.040.039.5213.19-0.03-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0330.0031.54-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0355.0054.480.000.00
OhioMAC0.050.0381.8277.200.030.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0386.9685.460.030.02
OklahomaB120.050.0359.0954.700.010.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0345.4540.70-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0340.9143.66-0.01-0.00
RadfordBSth0.050.038.7013.10-0.04-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0345.0046.13-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.040.0360.0059.060.010.00
StanfordP120.000.0369.5768.290.000.01
StetsonASun0.050.0331.8231.31-0.02-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.034.359.66-0.04-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.000.0361.9058.590.000.00
UABCUSA0.050.0340.9139.82-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.0369.5766.540.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0334.7834.61-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0375.0073.970.000.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.000.0335.0039.38-0.00-0.01