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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Rutgers

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:182.4
Current RPI:76
Expected SOS:118
Current SOS:196
Current Record:5-1
Expected Record:13-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:5-1
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:154
Expected OOC SOS:345



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-945.50.02%
20-1067.50.10%
19-1184.30.44%
18-1297.71.39%
17-13114.43.97%
16-14132.18.01%
15-15151.313.99%
14-16170.619.19%
13-17190.820.70%
12-18210.316.28%
11-19229.310.21%
10-20247.44.25%
9-21263.71.14%
8-22276.30.30%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rutgers.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Drexel (245.8)CAAH87-66W100%0.0
11-17DePaul (206.1)BEA59-66W100%0.0
11-20Niagara (304.2)MAACH78-65W100%0.0
11-23North Texas (300.2)CUSAH66-53W100%0.0
11-25Hartford (335.7)AEH77-75W100%0.0
11-30Miami FL (45.8)ACCA73-61L0%0.0
12-3Morgan St. (332.1)MEACH0-092%17.0
12-6Central Connecticut (293.0)NECH0-087%13.7
12-10Stony Brook (298.6)AEA0-072%6.8
12-14Fairleigh Dickinson (267.1)NECH0-086%12.8
12-18Fordham (205.9)A10N0-056%1.9
12-23Seton Hall (76.8)BEA0-016%-11.9
12-27Wisconsin (29.2)B10A0-05%-19.8
1-1Penn St. (136.8)B10H0-051%0.3
1-4Michigan St. (41.5)B10A0-09%-15.9
1-8Iowa (164.3)B10A0-027%-7.3
1-12Northwestern (60.3)B10H0-024%-8.5
1-15Indiana (20.3)B10A0-05%-19.8
1-21Nebraska (94.1)B10H0-041%-2.6
1-24Maryland (99.7)B10A0-024%-8.5
1-28Wisconsin (29.2)B10N0-08%-16.7
1-31Iowa (164.3)B10H0-046%-1.1
2-4Penn St. (136.8)B10A0-031%-5.9
2-8Ohio St. (30.8)B10A0-08%-17.0
2-11Minnesota (46.1)B10H0-028%-7.1
2-14Purdue (28.6)B10A0-05%-19.7
2-18Northwestern (60.3)B10A0-011%-14.7
2-22Michigan (45.6)B10H0-021%-9.8
2-28Maryland (99.7)B10H0-042%-2.3
3-4Illinois (134.7)B10H0-048%-0.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rutgers's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rutgers's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rutgers.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RutgersB1029.0726.1086.3642.3021.14-4.02
IowaB100.003.9342.8643.02-0.00-0.55
MarylandB100.003.9385.7155.750.000.45
Penn St.B100.003.9162.5042.920.00-0.55
NorthwesternB100.003.9171.4365.100.001.18
WisconsinB100.003.8875.0072.480.001.74
IllinoisB100.002.3757.1442.330.00-0.36
Ohio St.B100.002.3585.7172.010.001.03
MinnesotaB100.002.3585.7165.450.000.72
IndianaB100.002.3483.3374.400.001.14
PurdueB100.002.3471.4373.770.001.11
NebraskaB100.002.3150.0043.070.00-0.32
MichiganB100.002.2971.4366.100.000.74
Michigan St.B100.002.2650.0060.620.000.48
HartfordAE10.461.8414.2923.30-7.47-0.98
Seton HallBE0.001.8371.4353.510.000.13
Central ConnecticutNEC0.521.8140.0038.54-0.10-0.41
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.001.8120.0034.96-0.00-0.54
DePaulBE8.331.78100.0037.208.33-0.45
Stony BrookAE0.001.7816.6734.01-0.00-0.57
NiagaraMAAC10.281.7520.0027.93-6.17-0.77
DrexelCAA10.381.7550.0038.090.00-0.42
North TexasCUSA10.141.7550.0031.940.00-0.63
FordhamA100.001.7357.1443.680.00-0.22
Morgan St.MEAC0.001.7216.6738.17-0.00-0.41
Miami FLACC8.331.6766.6764.562.780.49
St. John'sBE0.000.2528.5733.92-0.00-0.08
GeorgetownBE0.000.2250.0047.560.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.2050.0054.490.000.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.520.2083.3357.990.350.03
CreightonBE0.000.19100.0076.650.000.10
ButlerBE0.000.19100.0075.690.000.10
MarquetteBE0.000.1971.4363.090.000.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1742.8638.05-0.00-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1712.5048.98-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.000.1728.5750.20-0.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1716.6736.35-0.00-0.05
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1760.0052.760.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.1725.0040.81-0.00-0.03
AlbanyAE0.000.1650.0060.380.000.03
Notre DameACC0.000.16100.0075.010.000.08
WagnerNEC0.000.1533.3353.85-0.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1540.0043.86-0.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.830.1425.0039.28-0.42-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.000.1442.8640.94-0.00-0.03
MaineAE0.000.1416.6725.61-0.00-0.07
DuquesneA100.000.1437.5034.65-0.00-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.000.1471.4356.280.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.14100.0083.120.000.09
PittsburghACC0.000.1485.7155.550.000.02
DukeACC0.000.1487.5078.680.000.08
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.1416.6734.31-0.00-0.04
RiderMAAC0.520.1450.0047.990.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.140.0017.30-0.00-0.09
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1216.6729.36-0.00-0.05
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1266.6751.090.000.00
BrownIvy0.690.1150.0042.420.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.110.0023.46-0.00-0.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.110.0024.19-0.00-0.06
HowardMEAC0.000.110.0038.26-0.00-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1133.3338.19-0.00-0.03
New HampshireAE0.000.1150.0057.480.000.02
UMBCAE0.000.1180.0055.340.000.01
VermontAE0.000.1162.5071.630.000.05
NortheasternCAA0.000.1157.1448.240.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.1185.7162.920.000.03
RichmondA100.000.1157.1448.600.00-0.00
XavierBE0.000.11100.0074.800.000.06
DaytonA100.000.1166.6772.440.000.05
Florida St.ACC0.000.1185.7162.410.000.03
George WashingtonA100.000.1157.1444.160.00-0.01
IUPUISum0.000.1128.5747.72-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.1185.7180.010.000.07
VirginiaACC0.000.11100.0082.550.000.07
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.110.0024.77-0.00-0.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0940.0067.95-0.000.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0820.0034.39-0.00-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0857.1464.940.000.03
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0842.8642.47-0.00-0.01
PennIvy0.600.0840.0057.97-0.120.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0857.1440.550.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0885.7180.960.000.05
IonaMAAC0.000.0860.0070.140.000.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.080.0038.35-0.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0850.0027.250.00-0.04
DelawareCAA0.000.0840.0040.65-0.00-0.02
La SalleA100.600.0860.0051.780.120.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0871.4350.570.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0850.0046.780.00-0.01
NJITASun0.000.0842.8650.32-0.000.00
UCLAP120.000.08100.0083.550.000.06
DavidsonA100.000.0883.3368.880.000.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0850.0038.430.00-0.02
George MasonA100.000.0857.1442.940.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0866.6739.720.00-0.02
Iowa St.B120.600.0871.4368.970.260.03
MonmouthMAAC0.600.0871.4371.570.260.04
SyracuseACC0.000.0866.6770.140.000.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.0871.4352.370.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0885.7175.950.000.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0814.2929.15-0.00-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.080.0038.51-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0828.5730.29-0.00-0.03
TexasB120.000.0850.0036.240.00-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0842.8637.60-0.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0018.22-0.00-0.04
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0666.6765.810.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0685.7169.010.000.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0633.3323.33-0.00-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.060.0034.18-0.00-0.02
High PointBSth0.000.0650.0051.260.000.00
LipscombASun0.000.0614.2933.07-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.77-0.00-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.000.0683.3359.600.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0034.23-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0666.6775.370.000.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0666.6753.460.000.00
KansasB120.000.0685.7176.170.000.03
YaleIvy0.000.0633.3364.14-0.000.02
AmericanPat0.000.0616.6735.65-0.00-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0662.5056.500.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0683.3358.030.000.01
FloridaSEC0.600.0687.5075.320.450.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0657.1447.320.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.060.0028.15-0.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0685.7155.890.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0683.3356.560.000.01
StanfordP120.600.0675.0059.100.300.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0683.3377.170.000.03
VCUA100.000.0685.7178.150.000.03
William & MaryCAA0.000.0640.0055.44-0.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.05100.0080.780.000.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.0566.6770.740.000.02
Western CarolinaSC0.600.0516.6718.96-0.40-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0533.3341.52-0.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.0520.0041.31-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0566.6751.460.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0583.3362.080.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0550.0056.260.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0533.3348.71-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0514.2929.81-0.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.000.0542.8635.68-0.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0585.7159.740.000.01
NavyPat0.000.0528.5743.62-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0533.3348.73-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0525.0030.93-0.00-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.0533.3353.29-0.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0540.0057.49-0.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0583.3351.920.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0516.6732.62-0.00-0.02
SienaMAAC0.000.0528.5750.51-0.000.00
StetsonASun0.000.0528.5728.26-0.00-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0525.0034.47-0.00-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0525.0024.28-0.00-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.0571.4355.750.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.0333.3345.58-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0316.6731.91-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0333.3343.64-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0316.6743.29-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.000.0325.0033.54-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0316.6733.69-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0383.3376.370.000.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3345.60-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0385.7173.010.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.32-0.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0058.600.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0328.5727.50-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0350.0056.430.000.00
Texas TechB120.830.0385.7163.780.600.01
UABCUSA0.000.0357.1461.940.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0325.0043.26-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0328.5728.46-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0342.8634.17-0.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0320.0048.38-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.000.0333.3367.01-0.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0333.3340.49-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.030.0021.30-0.00-0.02
South DakotaSum0.000.0357.1447.220.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.0325.0056.92-0.000.00
BYUWCC0.000.0371.4368.660.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0383.3363.610.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0366.6756.360.000.00
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0019.51-0.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.830.030.0021.30-0.83-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0383.3380.700.000.02
HarvardIvy0.000.030.0043.04-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0350.0050.940.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0350.0050.290.000.00
LafayettePat0.600.0333.3331.87-0.20-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0360.0043.970.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0383.3358.080.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.830.0333.3333.15-0.28-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0350.0045.920.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.830.0375.0064.960.420.01
North FloridaASun0.600.0314.2931.71-0.43-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0350.0052.140.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0371.4370.330.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0333.3326.75-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0371.4363.570.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0383.3380.550.000.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0360.0070.500.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.030.0033.58-0.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0360.0048.590.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.520.0320.0036.00-0.31-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.0385.7170.990.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0357.1436.050.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0383.3362.840.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0385.7168.390.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0383.3355.200.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0340.0041.65-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.000.03100.0074.460.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.690.0340.0050.91-0.140.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0316.6730.27-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0333.3338.76-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0023.47-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0350.0071.330.000.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0366.6770.930.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0320.0049.38-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0350.0045.410.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0360.0067.410.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.030.0042.55-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0350.0051.820.000.00
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0086.250.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0340.0050.71-0.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0366.6761.340.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0020.01-0.00-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0320.0041.93-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.30-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0383.3378.430.000.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0019.30-0.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0357.1440.590.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0357.1469.300.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0350.0046.670.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0314.2928.66-0.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0350.0064.840.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0350.0053.560.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0357.1448.860.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.030.0022.69-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0371.4386.030.000.02