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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Rutgers

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:294.0
Current RPI:294
Expected SOS:104
Current SOS:104
Current Record:6-25
Expected Record:6-25
Current Conf Record:1-18
Expected Conf Record:1-18
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-2
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:288
Expected OOC SOS:266



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
6-25294.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rutgers.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Howard (328.0)MEACH82-70W100%0.0
11-19St. John's (246.0)BEA61-59L0%0.0
11-21Central Arkansas (339.0)SlndH87-84W100%0.0
11-23Creighton (100.0)BEN75-85L0%0.0
11-25Clemson (131.0)ACCN58-76L0%0.0
11-30Wake Forest (159.0)ACCH68-69L0%0.0
12-5Seton Hall (19.0)BEH55-84L0%0.0
12-8Central Connecticut (351.0)NECH75-59W100%0.0
12-12George Washington (68.0)A10A83-49L0%0.0
12-20Monmouth (52.0)MAACH67-73L0%0.0
12-23Fairleigh Dickinson (205.0)NECH72-64W100%0.0
12-28UMass Lowell (261.0)AEH89-66W100%0.0
12-30Indiana (24.0)B10H72-79L0%0.0
1-2Wisconsin (43.0)B10A79-57L0%0.0
1-6Maryland (14.0)B10A88-63L0%0.0
1-9Nebraska (165.0)B10H56-90L0%0.0
1-13Ohio St. (74.0)B10A94-68L0%0.0
1-18Purdue (15.0)B10H57-107L0%0.0
1-21Iowa (28.0)B10H76-90L0%0.0
1-27Michigan (56.0)B10A68-57L0%0.0
1-31Michigan St. (12.0)B10A96-62L0%0.0
2-3Illinois (149.0)B10H101-110L0%0.0
2-6Nebraska (165.0)B10A87-63L0%0.0
2-13Ohio St. (74.0)B10H69-79L0%0.0
2-16Illinois (149.0)B10A82-66L0%0.0
2-20Penn St. (125.0)B10H58-70L0%0.0
2-23Minnesota (257.0)B10A83-61L0%0.0
2-27Northwestern (115.0)B10A98-59L0%0.0
3-2Michigan St. (12.0)B10H66-97L0%0.0
3-5Minnesota (257.0)B10H75-52W100%0.0
3-9Nebraska (165.0)B10N89-72L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rutgers's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rutgers's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rutgers.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RutgersB1026.1226.1212.5912.59-19.54-19.54
NebraskaB105.415.4141.9441.94-0.87-0.87
IllinoisB103.903.9040.6240.62-0.73-0.73
Michigan St.B103.873.8784.3884.382.662.66
Ohio St.B103.863.8658.0658.060.620.62
MinnesotaB103.843.8424.1424.14-1.98-1.98
IndianaB102.382.3877.4277.421.301.30
PurdueB102.372.3775.7675.761.221.22
NorthwesternB102.332.3361.2961.290.530.53
Penn St.B102.322.3248.3948.39-0.07-0.07
MarylandB102.322.3274.1974.191.121.12
WisconsinB102.292.2961.2961.290.520.52
MichiganB102.282.2862.5062.500.570.57
IowaB102.252.2566.6766.670.750.75
CreightonBE1.831.8354.8454.840.180.18
Seton HallBE1.761.7675.0075.000.880.88
St. John'sBE1.741.7420.0020.00-1.04-1.04
Central ConnecticutNEC1.691.6914.2914.29-1.21-1.21
ClemsonACC1.691.6953.3353.330.110.11
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.671.6756.6756.670.220.22
UMass LowellAE1.671.6737.0437.04-0.43-0.43
HowardMEAC1.671.6734.4834.48-0.52-0.52
Wake ForestACC1.661.6633.3333.33-0.55-0.55
George WashingtonA101.661.6668.7568.750.620.62
Central ArkansasSlnd1.641.6425.9325.93-0.79-0.79
MonmouthMAAC1.611.6178.7978.790.930.93
VillanovaBE0.270.2785.2985.290.190.19
ProvidenceBE0.250.2569.7069.700.100.10
WagnerNEC0.240.2467.7467.740.080.08
Notre DameACC0.230.2365.6265.620.070.07
MarquetteBE0.230.2360.6160.610.050.05
XavierBE0.230.2384.3884.380.160.16
DePaulBE0.230.2329.0329.03-0.09-0.09
GeorgetownBE0.230.2345.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.210.2142.4242.42-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.210.2121.8821.88-0.12-0.12
ButlerBE0.180.1867.7467.740.060.06
Sacred HeartNEC0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.160.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.160.1670.5970.590.060.06
VirginiaACC0.150.1578.7978.790.090.09
UMBCAE0.140.1421.8821.88-0.08-0.08
LIU BrooklynNEC0.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
BryantNEC0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
MassachusettsA100.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.1329.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Chicago St.WAC0.120.123.453.45-0.12-0.12
Miami FLACC0.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
Delaware St.MEAC0.120.1216.6716.67-0.08-0.08
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.120.1224.2424.24-0.06-0.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.1131.2531.25-0.04-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
PittsburghACC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
FordhamA100.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
SyracuseACC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
TempleAmer0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
DukeACC0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.100.1082.3582.350.070.07
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
South DakotaSum0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1022.8622.86-0.05-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
FairfieldMAAC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
RiderMAAC0.100.1039.3939.39-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
TennesseeSEC0.100.1044.1244.12-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.090.0928.1228.12-0.04-0.04
MaineAE0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0826.9226.92-0.04-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
VermontAE0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
UTSACUSA0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.0856.0056.000.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
UMKCWAC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0829.1729.17-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
YaleIvy0.080.0877.7877.780.040.04
RichmondA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
ArmyPat0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
DaytonA100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
DuquesneA100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
VMISC0.070.0722.2222.22-0.04-0.04
Iowa St.B120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
SienaMAAC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
SamfordSC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
IonaMAAC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
AlbanyAE0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0687.1087.100.040.04
New HampshireAE0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0620.8320.83-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.060.0680.0080.000.030.03
NJITASun0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Texas TechB120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
LafayettePat0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
UCLAP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
IUPUISum0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
MercerSC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
KansasB120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
USCP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0382.1482.140.020.02
TulsaAmer0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
BrownIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
IPFWSum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
BradleyMVC0.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
MississippiSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
TexasB120.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
TroySB0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0262.8662.860.010.01