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Through games of Nov 26, 2014.


Rutgers

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:231.6
Current RPI:304
Expected SOS:50
Current SOS:296
Current Record:2-2
Expected Record:7-23
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:2-16
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-2
Current OOC Record:2-2
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:262
Expected OOC SOS:209



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-15123.00.01%
14-16124.70.03%
13-17132.90.29%
12-18153.60.95%
11-19167.73.06%
10-20186.67.00%
9-21204.814.37%
8-22221.920.18%
7-23239.223.00%
6-24256.117.20%
5-25270.49.80%
4-26282.93.42%
3-27295.30.66%
2-28304.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rutgers.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16George Washington (70.1)A10H53-70L0%0.0
11-19Fairleigh Dickinson (284.9)NECH61-44W100%0.0
11-23St. Francis NY (235.9)NECH76-73W100%0.0
11-25Saint Peter's (234.0)MAACH50-68L0%0.0
11-28Vanderbilt (124.1)SECN0-021%-9.8
12-1Clemson (126.8)ACCA0-010%-15.1
12-6Seton Hall (45.4)BEA0-06%-18.3
12-9New Hampshire (256.4)AEH0-065%4.7
12-14Manhattan (206.0)MAACN0-038%-3.6
12-20St. Francis PA (245.7)NECH0-066%4.9
12-23Sacred Heart (307.0)NECH0-078%9.2
12-28Monmouth (184.3)MAACA0-026%-7.8
12-30Northwestern (171.8)B10H0-049%-0.3
1-3Penn St. (130.4)B10H0-036%-4.3
1-8Nebraska (80.9)B10A0-08%-16.7
1-11Wisconsin (5.6)B10H0-03%-22.6
1-14Maryland (43.9)B10A0-04%-20.7
1-17Minnesota (89.2)B10A0-07%-17.3
1-20Michigan (41.5)B10H0-012%-14.1
1-24Penn St. (130.4)B10A0-017%-11.5
1-27Michigan St. (36.2)B10H0-09%-15.8
1-31Indiana (90.4)B10A0-08%-17.0
2-3Illinois (53.3)B10A0-05%-19.8
2-8Ohio St. (33.4)B10H0-09%-16.1
2-12Purdue (48.3)B10H0-012%-13.9
2-19Iowa (42.3)B10A0-03%-22.1
2-22Indiana (90.4)B10H0-021%-9.8
2-26Purdue (48.3)B10A0-04%-21.1
3-3Maryland (43.9)B10H0-013%-13.5
3-7Michigan (41.5)B10A0-04%-21.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rutgers's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rutgers's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rutgers.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RutgersB1031.4626.1130.0019.67-12.58-15.84
MarylandB100.003.97100.0070.510.001.63
Penn St.B100.003.9483.3346.660.00-0.26
PurdueB100.003.9483.3367.000.001.34
IndianaB100.003.9480.0055.140.000.41
MichiganB100.003.8875.0064.720.001.14
Ohio St.B100.002.41100.0074.210.001.17
Michigan St.B100.002.3575.0071.370.001.01
IllinoisB100.002.33100.0064.070.000.66
MinnesotaB100.002.3350.0053.960.000.18
NorthwesternB100.002.3183.3339.200.00-0.50
WisconsinB100.002.30100.0086.090.001.66
NebraskaB100.002.3075.0051.870.000.09
IowaB100.002.2866.6764.800.000.67
Sacred HeartNEC0.001.9025.0034.53-0.00-0.59
St. Francis NYNEC12.501.870.0053.81-12.500.14
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC12.501.8750.0040.860.00-0.34
MonmouthMAAC0.001.8650.0051.420.000.05
St. Francis PANEC0.001.8425.0046.61-0.00-0.12
Saint Peter'sMAAC12.501.840.0039.71-12.50-0.38
ManhattanMAAC0.001.7825.0048.10-0.00-0.07
George WashingtonA1012.501.7566.6768.194.170.64
Seton HallBE0.001.72100.0063.130.000.45
VanderbiltSEC0.001.72100.0052.890.000.10
New HampshireAE0.001.6933.3346.13-0.00-0.13
ClemsonACC0.001.6760.0049.440.00-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.310.0030.79-0.00-0.12
WagnerNEC0.000.310.0045.08-0.00-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.290.0049.14-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.2633.3346.61-0.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.2620.0038.27-0.00-0.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.2625.0036.66-0.00-0.07
RiderMAAC0.000.2050.0046.840.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.190.0026.01-0.00-0.09
Notre DameACC0.000.1783.3369.220.000.06
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1750.0052.730.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1740.0032.41-0.00-0.06
IonaMAAC0.000.1780.0079.380.000.10
MaristMAAC0.000.1720.0033.15-0.00-0.06
NiagaraMAAC1.250.1733.3330.18-0.42-0.07
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.1750.0055.700.000.02
SienaMAAC0.000.1733.3361.50-0.000.04
UMBCAE0.000.150.0027.57-0.00-0.07
BrownIvy1.250.1420.0038.01-0.75-0.03
DuquesneA100.000.14100.0054.340.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.14100.0077.100.000.08
SMUAmer0.000.1450.0065.300.000.04
GeorgetownBE1.560.14100.0061.351.560.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.14100.0079.150.000.08
ButlerBE0.000.14100.0071.480.000.06
HartfordAE1.250.1280.0051.800.750.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.1260.0042.120.00-0.02
NJITind0.000.1220.0029.79-0.00-0.05
Florida St.ACC0.000.1140.0038.71-0.00-0.03
St. John'sBE0.000.11100.0058.520.000.02
SyracuseACC0.000.1180.0068.140.000.04
BucknellPat0.000.1133.3335.82-0.00-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.11100.0049.260.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.1150.0037.010.00-0.03
MissouriSEC0.000.1140.0036.41-0.00-0.03
OaklandHorz0.000.1116.6726.44-0.00-0.05
PittsburghACC0.000.1160.0057.880.000.02
VirginiaACC1.560.11100.0073.601.560.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1140.0057.50-0.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.11100.0065.430.000.03
North FloridaASun0.000.1140.0052.52-0.000.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0950.0063.440.000.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.090.0022.97-0.00-0.05
MaineAE0.000.090.0019.27-0.00-0.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.09100.0052.420.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0920.0021.73-0.00-0.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.090.0031.85-0.00-0.03
ColgatePat0.000.0920.0039.02-0.00-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0925.0039.50-0.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.09100.0060.970.000.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0027.64-0.00-0.04
DukeACC0.000.09100.0083.600.000.06
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0960.0056.970.000.01
La SalleA102.810.09100.0056.622.810.01
OregonP120.000.0960.0063.060.000.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.080.0036.14-0.00-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.0866.6726.420.00-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0860.0067.390.000.03
Grambling St.SWAC1.560.080.0020.69-1.56-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0816.6739.87-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.080.0040.80-0.00-0.02
VMISC0.000.0825.0036.44-0.00-0.02
CornellIvy0.000.0842.8640.94-0.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0860.0036.000.00-0.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0833.3353.30-0.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0875.0067.420.000.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0875.0062.480.000.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.080.0015.65-0.00-0.06
Stony BrookAE0.000.0650.0065.760.000.02
VermontAE0.000.0650.0065.840.000.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0061.080.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0640.0038.08-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0625.0053.31-0.000.00
ColumbiaIvy2.080.0675.0064.981.040.02
NavyPat0.000.0620.0029.93-0.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.06100.0060.350.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA102.080.0660.0039.490.42-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0666.6753.510.000.00
AmericanPat0.000.0666.6759.500.000.01
LafayettePat0.000.0660.0060.080.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0625.0037.52-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0680.0058.430.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0075.690.000.03
DavidsonA100.000.0666.6761.870.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0660.0058.400.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0650.0064.920.000.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0683.3366.600.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.06100.0045.580.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0625.0048.11-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.000.0650.0064.050.000.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0675.0046.370.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0044.110.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0680.0073.080.000.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0640.0048.44-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.000.06100.0080.270.000.03
TowsonCAA0.000.0680.0057.990.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0079.750.000.03
AuburnSEC0.000.0660.0037.550.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0660.0055.990.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0650.0051.520.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0025.37-0.00-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.0666.6751.600.000.00
YaleIvy0.000.0680.0070.280.000.02
LongwoodBSth1.560.0620.0022.02-0.94-0.03
PennIvy0.000.060.0023.29-0.00-0.03
Miami FLACC0.000.06100.0079.800.000.03
NevadaMWC0.000.0625.0043.39-0.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0066.690.000.02
XavierBE0.000.06100.0077.810.000.03
CampbellBSth0.000.050.0034.56-0.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0516.6745.77-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.000.0575.0055.980.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0580.0046.930.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0560.0066.190.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0560.0053.110.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.050.0034.83-0.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.0550.0067.000.000.02
DrexelCAA0.000.0520.0036.68-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0580.0074.900.000.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0540.0046.02-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.000.0566.6762.950.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0540.0030.81-0.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0550.0046.630.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0525.0036.41-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0550.0044.930.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0540.0026.51-0.00-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.000.050.0036.91-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.050.0066.35-0.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.05100.0077.900.000.03
Oklahoma St.B120.000.05100.0061.400.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0533.3335.00-0.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0540.0033.60-0.00-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.050.0028.63-0.00-0.02
USCP120.000.0550.0028.760.00-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0566.6751.210.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0022.25-0.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.030.0019.74-0.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0371.4357.180.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.03100.0052.660.000.00
LehighPat0.000.0320.0042.40-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0314.2931.08-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0350.0050.040.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0366.6741.320.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0316.6731.72-0.00-0.01
ArmyPat1.560.03100.0069.411.560.01
BaylorB120.000.03100.0070.110.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0380.0062.960.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0375.0064.180.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0380.0070.250.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0325.0047.86-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0375.0071.150.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0325.0039.67-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0038.94-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0325.0027.83-0.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0375.0077.520.000.02
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0089.070.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0320.0029.02-0.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.000.030.0045.69-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0350.0040.810.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0320.0034.26-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0052.920.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0333.3351.34-0.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0380.0066.690.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0366.6751.430.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0333.3339.69-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0325.0044.95-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0035.41-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0052.090.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0068.260.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.030.0028.78-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0325.0040.45-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0366.6747.140.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0325.0041.79-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0030.92-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0018.42-0.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0350.0051.010.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.03100.0066.080.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0064.230.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0375.0043.690.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0333.3330.11-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0333.3354.15-0.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0375.0055.330.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.03100.0084.900.000.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0033.69-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0031.47-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0054.940.000.00
ElonCAA0.000.0340.0039.53-0.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0024.09-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0320.0031.23-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0333.3359.02-0.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0027.68-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0047.310.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0350.0047.220.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0366.6755.570.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.03100.0069.720.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0366.6756.860.000.00