Rutgers

Conference:	BE
Expected RPI:	109.0
Current RPI:	109
Expected SOS:	52
Current SOS:	52
Current Record:	15-16
Expected Record:	15-16
Current Conf Record:	6-14
Expected Conf Record:	6-14
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	8-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-2
Current OOC Record:	9-2
Expected OOC Record:	9-2
Expected OOC RPI:	79
Expected OOC SOS:	235

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
15-16	109.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rutgers.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	St. Peter's (290.0)	MAAC	H	52-56	L	0%
11-12	Sacred Heart (253.0)	NEC	H	88-62	W	100%
11-16	Princeton (124.0)	Ivy	A	52-58	W	100%
11-20	Boston University (148.0)	AE	H	81-79	W	100%
11-25	NC Greensboro (327.0)	SC	A	80-87	W	100%
12-1	Mississippi (47.0)	SEC	A	80-67	L	0%
12-8	Iona (98.0)	MAAC	N	81-73	W	100%
12-11	George Washington (147.0)	A10	H	68-65	W	100%
12-16	UAB (144.0)	CUSA	H	88-79	W	100%
12-21	Howard (334.0)	MEAC	H	79-55	W	100%
12-28	Rider (145.0)	MAAC	H	68-56	W	100%
1-2	Syracuse (14.0)	BE	A	78-53	L	0%
1-5	Pittsburgh (44.0)	BE	H	67-62	W	100%
1-9	St. John's (96.0)	BE	A	56-58	W	100%
1-12	Cincinnati (50.0)	BE	H	58-68	L	0%
1-17	South Florida (156.0)	BE	H	70-67	W	100%
1-19	Notre Dame (35.0)	BE	A	69-66	L	0%
1-23	St. John's (96.0)	BE	H	60-72	L	0%
1-27	Connecticut (49.0)	BE	A	66-54	L	0%
1-30	Cincinnati (50.0)	BE	A	62-54	L	0%
2-6	Louisville (3.0)	BE	H	48-68	L	0%
2-9	Georgetown (11.0)	BE	H	63-69	L	0%
2-12	Seton Hall (138.0)	BE	H	57-55	W	100%
2-16	DePaul (204.0)	BE	A	75-69	L	0%
2-18	Villanova (52.0)	BE	A	71-63	L	0%
2-23	Providence (91.0)	BE	H	72-76	L	0%
3-2	Georgetown (11.0)	BE	A	64-51	L	0%
3-5	Marquette (13.0)	BE	H	54-60	L	0%
3-8	Seton Hall (138.0)	BE	A	51-56	W	100%
3-12	DePaul (204.0)	BE	N	76-57	W	100%
3-13	Notre Dame (35.0)	BE	N	69-61	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rutgers's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Rutgers's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Rutgers.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Rutgers	BE	26.09	26.09	45.45	45.45	-2.37	-2.37
Notre Dame	BE	3.93	3.93	71.88	71.88	1.72	1.72
Cincinnati	BE	3.86	3.86	64.52	64.52	1.12	1.12
St. John's	BE	3.85	3.85	51.72	51.72	0.13	0.13
Georgetown	BE	3.85	3.85	79.31	79.31	2.26	2.26
Seton Hall	BE	3.83	3.83	48.39	48.39	-0.12	-0.12
DePaul	BE	3.83	3.83	33.33	33.33	-1.28	-1.28
Syracuse	BE	2.40	2.40	73.53	73.53	1.13	1.13
Louisville	BE	2.33	2.33	84.85	84.85	1.63	1.63
Pittsburgh	BE	2.29	2.29	77.42	77.42	1.26	1.26
Marquette	BE	2.29	2.29	73.33	73.33	1.07	1.07
Villanova	BE	2.27	2.27	58.06	58.06	0.37	0.37
Providence	BE	2.26	2.26	53.33	53.33	0.15	0.15
South Florida	BE	2.24	2.24	40.00	40.00	-0.45	-0.45
Connecticut	BE	2.24	2.24	65.52	65.52	0.69	0.69
St. Peter's	MAAC	1.79	1.79	27.59	27.59	-0.80	-0.80
Rider	MAAC	1.75	1.75	58.06	58.06	0.28	0.28
Iona	MAAC	1.72	1.72	62.50	62.50	0.43	0.43
George Washington	A10	1.72	1.72	44.83	44.83	-0.18	-0.18
Boston University	AE	1.69	1.69	60.71	60.71	0.36	0.36
Howard	MEAC	1.67	1.67	21.43	21.43	-0.95	-0.95
Princeton	Ivy	1.66	1.66	61.54	61.54	0.38	0.38
Sacred Heart	NEC	1.64	1.64	32.14	32.14	-0.59	-0.59
Mississippi	SEC	1.61	1.61	75.76	75.76	0.83	0.83
NC Greensboro	SC	1.61	1.61	25.00	25.00	-0.81	-0.81
UAB	CUSA	1.61	1.61	48.39	48.39	-0.05	-0.05
Fairfield	MAAC	0.28	0.28	55.88	55.88	0.03	0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.23	0.23	58.06	58.06	0.04	0.04
Manhattan	MAAC	0.23	0.23	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.22	0.22	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
Stony Brook	AE	0.21	0.21	76.67	76.67	0.11	0.11
Fordham	A10	0.18	0.18	22.58	22.58	-0.10	-0.10
Brown	Ivy	0.16	0.16	44.44	44.44	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.16	0.16	7.14	7.14	-0.13	-0.13
La Salle	A10	0.16	0.16	70.00	70.00	0.06	0.06
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.15	0.15	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Marist	MAAC	0.15	0.15	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Siena	MAAC	0.15	0.15	25.00	25.00	-0.08	-0.08
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.15	0.15	48.00	48.00	-0.01	-0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.15	0.15	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Western Carolina	SC	0.14	0.14	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.13	0.13	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.13	0.13	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.13	0.13	23.33	23.33	-0.07	-0.07
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.13	0.13	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Long Island	NEC	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Central Florida	CUSA	0.13	0.13	62.07	62.07	0.03	0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.12	0.12	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Elon	SC	0.11	0.11	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Maine	AE	0.10	0.10	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Liberty	BSth	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
College of Charleston	SC	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.10	0.10	17.24	17.24	-0.07	-0.07
Rhode Island	A10	0.10	0.10	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.10	0.10	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.10	0.10	19.35	19.35	-0.06	-0.06
Detroit	Horz	0.10	0.10	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.10	0.10	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Tennessee	SEC	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.10	0.10	28.12	28.12	-0.04	-0.04
Chicago St.	GWC	0.10	0.10	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Alabama	SEC	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Missouri	SEC	0.09	0.09	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Yale	Ivy	0.09	0.09	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.08	0.08	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Chattanooga	SC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Hartford	AE	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.08	0.08	6.90	6.90	-0.07	-0.07
Hampton	MEAC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Vermont	AE	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Bryant	NEC	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Wagner	NEC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
American	Pat	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.08	0.08	42.31	42.31	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
East Carolina	CUSA	0.08	0.08	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
NC Asheville	BSth	0.08	0.08	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.08	0.08	85.29	85.29	0.05	0.05
Washington	P12	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.08	0.08	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Temple	A10	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Colgate	Pat	0.08	0.08	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Western Kentucky	SB	0.07	0.07	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.07	0.07	10.00	10.00	-0.06	-0.06
Purdue	B10	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	17.86	17.86	-0.05	-0.05
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.07	0.07	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.06	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Albany	AE	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Furman	SC	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Butler	A10	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.03	0.03
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Brigham Young	WCC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Davidson	SC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Southern California	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	14.81	14.81	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Texas Christian	B12	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Denver	WAC	0.02	0.02	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.02	0.02	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Hawaii	BW	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.02	0.02	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01