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Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


Rutgers

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:188.3
Current RPI:179
Expected SOS:90
Current SOS:118
Current Record:11-9
Expected Record:14-16
Current Conf Record:2-6
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:247
Expected OOC SOS:338



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1195.20.08%
18-12112.10.60%
17-13132.22.95%
16-14152.39.39%
15-15171.821.38%
14-16189.829.02%
13-17206.023.83%
12-18220.910.81%
11-19234.01.93%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rutgers.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Central Connecticut (253.0)NECH71-67W100%0.0
11-14Cleveland St. (322.2)HorzH70-38W100%0.0
11-19Coppin St. (342.7)MEACH64-39W100%0.0
11-21Bryant (330.9)NECH83-54W100%0.0
11-24East Carolina (280.0)AmerH61-47W100%0.0
11-28Florida St. (39.8)ACCH73-78L0%0.0
12-3Minnesota (98.1)B10A89-67L0%0.0
12-5Michigan St. (20.7)B10H52-62L0%0.0
12-7NJIT (276.2)ASunH73-64W100%0.0
12-9Fairleigh Dickinson (280.4)NECH92-54W100%0.0
12-12Fordham (280.9)A10H75-63W100%0.0
12-16Seton Hall (25.7)BEH71-65W100%0.0
12-22Stony Brook (197.0)AEH73-75L0%0.0
12-28Hartford (253.6)AEH58-60L0%0.0
1-3Purdue (6.4)B10A82-51L0%0.0
1-5Wisconsin (130.4)B10H64-60W100%0.0
1-10Michigan St. (20.7)B10A76-72L0%0.0
1-14Ohio St. (20.7)B10H46-68L0%0.0
1-17Iowa (156.4)B10H80-64W100%0.0
1-21Michigan (37.9)B10A62-47L0%0.0
1-24Nebraska (102.7)B10H0-049%-0.2
1-27Penn St. (115.5)B10A0-020%-9.2
1-30Illinois (163.9)B10A0-029%-6.0
2-3Purdue (6.4)B10H0-08%-15.8
2-5Indiana (105.2)B10H0-048%-0.7
2-10Nebraska (102.7)B10A0-028%-6.6
2-13Northwestern (129.0)B10H0-042%-2.3
2-17Maryland (50.9)B10A0-013%-12.2
2-20Ohio St. (20.7)B10A0-011%-13.7
2-25Illinois (163.9)B10H0-051%0.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rutgers's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rutgers's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rutgers.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RutgersB1026.3726.1041.2536.50-4.61-7.05
Michigan St.B105.243.9684.2182.643.592.59
IllinoisB100.363.9345.0042.47-0.04-0.59
NebraskaB100.413.9163.6459.340.110.73
Ohio St.B102.863.8880.9575.651.771.99
PurdueB102.743.8890.0087.852.192.94
MarylandB100.552.3866.6762.320.180.59
Penn St.B100.312.3861.9055.020.070.24
WisconsinB102.622.3752.6347.810.14-0.10
IndianaB100.422.3760.0052.900.080.14
MinnesotaB102.622.3261.9056.200.620.29
MichiganB102.792.3275.0069.791.400.92
IowaB102.682.2950.0045.410.00-0.21
NorthwesternB100.172.2655.0050.100.020.00
Central ConnecticutNEC2.961.8955.0050.140.300.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC2.751.8925.0033.82-1.38-0.61
BryantNEC2.621.8110.0017.69-2.10-1.17
Stony BrookAE2.681.8133.3343.23-0.89-0.24
Cleveland St.Horz2.801.8021.0524.14-1.62-0.93
HartfordAE2.681.7847.3743.99-0.14-0.21
Coppin St.MEAC2.691.7810.0018.46-2.15-1.12
Seton HallBE2.641.7678.9570.171.530.71
East CarolinaAmer2.681.7544.4433.62-0.30-0.57
NJITASun2.641.7241.1844.21-0.47-0.20
Florida St.ACC2.571.6972.2268.611.140.63
FordhamA102.571.6933.3330.03-0.86-0.68
LIU BrooklynNEC0.590.3140.0042.51-0.12-0.05
WagnerNEC0.330.2664.7164.560.100.07
Sacred HeartNEC0.200.2330.0033.48-0.08-0.07
Robert MorrisNEC0.250.2257.1460.410.040.05
DePaulBE0.180.2242.1134.30-0.03-0.07
UMass LowellAE0.250.2033.3333.87-0.08-0.06
St. Francis PANEC0.180.2052.9459.250.010.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.180.2033.3335.21-0.06-0.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.250.2042.1144.98-0.04-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.250.1978.9569.820.140.08
ButlerBE0.180.1966.6763.070.060.05
MaineAE0.250.1710.5314.83-0.20-0.12
UMBCAE0.120.1755.5655.550.010.02
ConnecticutAmer0.310.1752.6347.380.02-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.190.1665.0054.600.060.02
North CarolinaACC0.300.1676.1972.570.160.07
North FloridaASun0.250.1431.5835.15-0.09-0.04
AlbanyAE0.190.1471.4370.250.080.06
BinghamtonAE0.130.1442.1139.93-0.02-0.03
New HampshireAE0.130.1433.3340.10-0.04-0.03
BrownIvy0.250.1450.0045.130.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.180.140.003.06-0.18-0.13
CreightonBE0.130.1475.0070.720.060.06
MarquetteBE0.180.1368.4260.530.070.03
St. John'sBE0.120.1347.3742.16-0.01-0.02
LipscombASun0.060.1252.9459.380.000.02
StetsonASun0.070.1233.3336.93-0.02-0.03
VermontAE0.130.1175.0077.870.060.06
TulaneAmer0.130.1163.1657.870.030.02
Miami OHMAC0.190.1147.0641.38-0.01-0.02
VCUA100.190.1160.0059.710.040.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.110.008.42-0.07-0.09
ProvidenceBE0.120.1170.0060.470.050.02
ClemsonACC0.060.1184.2173.180.040.05
DukeACC0.180.1189.4785.240.150.08
IUPUIHorz0.120.1127.7829.82-0.05-0.04
Notre DameACC0.120.1163.1661.000.030.02
OaklandHorz0.180.1161.9065.150.040.03
Long Beach St.BW0.120.1140.0043.34-0.02-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.130.0933.3333.76-0.04-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0916.6724.90-0.04-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.130.0911.1118.00-0.10-0.06
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.140.0942.1146.09-0.02-0.01
West VirginiaB120.190.0980.0076.040.120.04
South FloridaAmer0.130.0935.0026.13-0.04-0.04
MemphisAmer0.060.0865.0058.540.020.01
CincinnatiAmer0.190.0889.4785.550.150.06
DetroitHorz0.120.0821.0525.99-0.07-0.04
La SalleA100.070.0840.0042.69-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0842.1140.460.00-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0821.0523.52-0.04-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.180.0855.5657.250.020.01
RadfordBSth0.120.0857.8958.880.020.01
UCFAmer0.070.0868.4260.830.020.02
George WashingtonA100.070.0845.0043.49-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.060.0852.6343.040.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.130.0825.0027.93-0.06-0.04
Miami FLACC0.120.0877.7870.410.070.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.130.0845.0047.06-0.01-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0847.0654.68-0.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0831.5840.82-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.120.0818.7518.37-0.08-0.05
ValparaisoMVC0.060.0847.3748.77-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0865.0056.350.020.01
GeorgetownBE0.120.0868.4254.080.040.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.180.0831.5836.43-0.07-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0826.3230.45-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.180.0837.5033.77-0.04-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.120.0868.4270.820.040.03
XavierBE0.130.0885.7180.060.090.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0657.8966.270.010.02
IonaMAAC0.140.0660.0064.130.030.02
HoustonAmer0.070.0678.9573.000.040.03
SMUAmer0.000.0670.0070.610.000.02
TulsaAmer0.070.0655.0053.330.010.00
BucknellPat0.070.0661.9068.000.020.02
CampbellBSth0.070.0647.0647.41-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0620.0032.24-0.04-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.130.0636.8444.03-0.03-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.0617.6534.76-0.08-0.02
RiderMAAC0.060.0665.0065.330.020.02
TempleAmer0.060.0652.6351.740.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0627.7831.08-0.03-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0644.4446.010.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.070.0658.8261.440.010.01
DuquesneA100.070.0670.0058.090.030.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0670.0071.220.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0642.1145.98-0.01-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0616.6716.150.00-0.04
Loyola MDPat0.070.0622.2228.66-0.04-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0668.4263.610.000.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0666.6763.150.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0683.3384.250.000.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.060.0666.6773.220.020.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0650.0051.640.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.130.0641.1838.47-0.02-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.070.0666.6768.750.020.02
SyracuseACC0.070.0668.4261.280.020.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0626.3231.480.00-0.02
UNLVMWC0.000.0673.6865.250.000.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0668.4269.260.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.0510.0016.77-0.09-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.130.0510.0019.62-0.10-0.03
George MasonA100.000.0545.0041.290.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.120.0537.5046.70-0.03-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0510.5326.290.00-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.130.0550.0050.860.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0515.0020.280.00-0.03
MassachusettsA100.060.0550.0046.810.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.120.0557.1453.040.020.00
OhioMAC0.060.0547.0648.43-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0540.0030.880.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.060.0583.3381.450.040.03
Texas TechB120.060.0578.9571.750.040.02
UCLAP120.120.0565.0062.050.040.01
VirginiaACC0.060.0594.7486.110.060.04
Virginia TechACC0.130.0570.0060.400.050.01
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0531.5836.23-0.02-0.01
ArizonaP120.060.0580.0078.940.040.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0550.0052.500.000.00
DrakeMVC0.120.0555.0048.980.01-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0529.4133.930.00-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0538.8944.07-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.060.0580.9583.260.040.04
HamptonMEAC0.000.0525.0043.180.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.120.055.8819.39-0.11-0.03
KansasB120.000.0584.2179.760.000.03
MaristMAAC0.000.0521.0521.990.00-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0533.3340.35-0.02-0.01
NavyPat0.120.0560.0055.160.020.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0529.4134.780.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0544.4446.660.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.060.0563.1663.210.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.120.0541.1839.14-0.02-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0530.0032.54-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0536.8432.75-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.060.0555.0050.330.010.00
TennesseeSEC0.060.0572.2268.930.030.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0535.2940.46-0.02-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0520.0040.93-0.03-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0541.1839.660.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.0594.7490.310.000.04
William & MaryCAA0.060.0564.7160.010.020.01
YaleIvy0.120.0541.1847.61-0.02-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.070.0372.2274.940.030.02
ColgatePat0.070.0350.0051.030.000.00
DrexelCAA0.070.0330.0030.97-0.03-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.070.0330.0032.58-0.03-0.01
LafayettePat0.070.0322.2227.46-0.04-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.070.0352.9460.230.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.070.0361.1158.710.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0323.5325.63-0.03-0.01
FIUCUSA0.060.0335.2935.54-0.02-0.01
HofstraCAA0.070.0357.8959.500.010.01
PortlandWCC0.060.0327.7827.26-0.03-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0335.0031.82-0.02-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0322.2227.31-0.04-0.01
Wichita St.Amer0.070.0378.9577.380.040.02
AkronMAC0.060.0347.0644.92-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0362.5058.710.010.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0325.0031.44-0.03-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0345.0041.31-0.01-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0347.3750.940.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0377.7879.160.040.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0346.6747.000.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.070.0373.6871.600.030.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0352.6351.680.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0338.8940.780.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0344.4446.030.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0338.8943.360.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.060.0344.4444.91-0.01-0.00
LSUSEC0.060.0361.1153.190.010.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0345.0048.570.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.000.0377.7868.030.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0368.4254.040.020.00
RichmondA100.070.0331.5834.35-0.02-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0347.3746.930.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0357.8953.220.000.00
TexasB120.060.0365.0058.600.020.00
ToledoMAC0.060.0366.6767.670.020.01
UC RiversideBW0.060.0317.6523.84-0.04-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0352.9452.250.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.060.0368.4259.020.020.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0315.7922.64-0.04-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.060.0368.4264.160.020.01
BaylorB120.060.0357.8953.280.010.00
ColoradoP120.060.0360.0053.720.010.00
DartmouthIvy0.060.0321.4326.34-0.03-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0337.5037.67-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0366.6755.900.020.00
Iowa St.B120.060.0357.8946.220.01-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0383.3381.420.040.02
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0327.7841.03-0.03-0.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0370.5973.150.000.01
OregonP120.060.0365.0063.810.020.01
SienaMAAC0.060.0328.5729.93-0.03-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0372.2272.970.030.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0368.4263.970.000.01
UABCUSA0.060.0361.1164.150.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0336.8435.58-0.02-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0338.8935.38-0.01-0.01