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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Rutgers

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:158.0
Current RPI:94
Expected SOS:27
Current SOS:59
Current Record:6-4
Expected Record:11-20
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:3-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-1
Current OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:108
Expected OOC SOS:54



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1247.00.01%
18-1342.00.01%
17-1466.60.08%
16-1579.90.55%
15-1695.61.51%
14-17110.44.86%
13-18125.310.86%
12-19141.016.84%
11-20156.022.66%
10-21171.420.91%
9-22187.313.80%
8-23202.76.21%
7-24217.21.57%
6-25238.90.12%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rutgers.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16George Washington (81.1)A10H53-70L0%0.0
11-19Fairleigh Dickinson (257.1)NECH61-44W100%0.0
11-23St. Francis NY (268.3)NECH76-73W100%0.0
11-25Saint Peter's (224.5)MAACH50-68L0%0.0
11-28Vanderbilt (89.5)SECN65-68W100%0.0
11-29Virginia (7.3)ACCN45-26L0%0.0
12-1Clemson (159.7)ACCA64-69W100%0.0
12-6Seton Hall (37.4)BEA81-54L0%0.0
12-9New Hampshire (158.0)AEH60-56W100%0.0
12-14Manhattan (286.9)MAACN63-55W100%0.0
12-20St. Francis PA (141.5)NECH0-054%1.2
12-23Sacred Heart (154.5)NECH0-059%2.7
12-28Monmouth (173.6)MAACA0-026%-7.5
12-30Northwestern (163.9)B10H0-054%1.2
1-3Penn St. (101.0)B10H0-049%-0.4
1-8Nebraska (106.9)B10A0-018%-10.6
1-11Wisconsin (5.8)B10H0-04%-20.8
1-14Maryland (47.6)B10A0-08%-16.6
1-17Minnesota (52.8)B10A0-07%-17.7
1-20Michigan (137.4)B10H0-046%-1.3
1-24Penn St. (101.0)B10A0-022%-9.2
1-27Michigan St. (27.0)B10H0-012%-13.6
1-31Indiana (78.9)B10A0-010%-14.8
2-3Illinois (48.8)B10A0-06%-18.5
2-8Ohio St. (10.6)B10H0-06%-18.5
2-12Purdue (60.3)B10H0-020%-9.8
2-19Iowa (50.4)B10A0-06%-18.4
2-22Indiana (78.9)B10H0-030%-6.1
2-26Purdue (60.3)B10A0-06%-18.6
3-3Maryland (47.6)B10H0-025%-7.8
3-7Michigan (137.4)B10A0-020%-10.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rutgers's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rutgers's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rutgers.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RutgersB1027.8726.1054.1731.392.32-9.72
MarylandB100.253.8690.9166.580.201.28
Penn St.B100.283.8190.9153.090.230.24
PurdueB100.313.8172.7362.120.140.92
IndianaB100.003.8180.0056.100.000.46
MichiganB100.003.7555.5640.710.00-0.70
Ohio St.B100.002.3390.0084.360.001.60
Michigan St.B100.002.2772.7372.660.001.03
IllinoisB100.002.2572.7364.980.000.67
MinnesotaB100.002.2577.7863.740.000.62
WisconsinB100.002.2290.9188.130.001.69
NorthwesternB100.002.2260.0040.440.00-0.42
NebraskaB100.002.2266.6742.370.00-0.34
IowaB100.002.2072.7361.540.000.51
Sacred HeartNEC0.001.8450.0058.970.000.33
St. Francis NYNEC5.001.8125.0041.84-2.50-0.30
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC5.001.8033.3342.70-1.67-0.26
MonmouthMAAC0.001.8044.4455.93-0.000.21
St. Francis PANEC0.001.7850.0062.880.000.46
Saint Peter'sMAAC5.251.7830.0045.37-2.10-0.16
VirginiaACC5.281.72100.0084.805.281.20
George WashingtonA105.501.7262.5065.141.380.52
ManhattanMAAC5.001.7225.0038.84-2.50-0.38
Seton HallBE5.511.6788.8966.134.280.54
VanderbiltSEC5.001.6685.7162.483.570.42
ClemsonACC5.001.6475.0047.242.50-0.09
New HampshireAE5.001.6466.6767.111.670.56
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.3022.2230.85-0.00-0.12
WagnerNEC0.000.3014.2933.54-0.00-0.10
LIU BrooklynNEC0.360.2833.3344.71-0.12-0.03
BryantNEC0.360.2528.5747.24-0.15-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.250.2537.5037.96-0.06-0.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.2530.0039.44-0.00-0.05
Notre DameACC0.360.1990.9171.890.290.08
FordhamA100.000.1928.5728.26-0.00-0.08
RiderMAAC0.000.1950.0052.800.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.19100.0085.330.000.13
CanisiusMAAC0.230.1655.5661.390.030.04
FairfieldMAAC0.280.1644.4439.74-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.000.1666.6772.340.000.07
MaristMAAC0.280.1610.0018.61-0.22-0.10
NiagaraMAAC0.230.1614.2930.74-0.16-0.06
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.1644.4449.65-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.000.1637.5051.81-0.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1681.8264.110.000.05
GeorgetownBE0.280.1666.6759.460.090.03
UMBCAE0.280.1410.0020.91-0.22-0.08
Florida St.ACC0.280.1450.0037.510.00-0.03
DuquesneA100.000.1428.5731.23-0.00-0.05
SyracuseACC0.000.1466.6757.800.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.14100.0082.080.000.09
BrownIvy0.230.1340.0033.79-0.05-0.04
La SalleA101.070.1350.0049.960.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.1370.0071.330.000.06
PittsburghACC0.280.1366.6752.340.090.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.1377.7851.350.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.1355.5638.130.00-0.03
ButlerBE0.000.1380.0072.550.000.06
MarquetteBE0.000.1355.5647.870.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.1155.5654.360.000.01
HartfordAE0.230.1150.0051.050.000.00
NJITind0.280.1136.3640.98-0.08-0.02
St. John'sBE0.360.1187.5065.040.270.03
BucknellPat0.000.1140.0036.29-0.00-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1162.5059.510.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.1150.0038.000.00-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC1.070.1150.0056.340.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC1.070.110.0016.85-1.07-0.07
DukeACC0.000.11100.0087.140.000.08
Gardner WebbBSth0.530.1137.5050.40-0.130.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.1170.0071.630.000.05
MissouriSEC0.000.1044.4431.58-0.00-0.04
OaklandHorz0.000.1030.0031.57-0.00-0.04
North FloridaASun0.000.1044.4456.91-0.000.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0933.3348.89-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.280.090.0011.87-0.28-0.07
MaineAE0.000.0911.1121.08-0.00-0.05
Boston CollegeACC0.360.0866.6742.100.12-0.01
George MasonA100.280.0825.0025.93-0.14-0.04
ColgatePat0.360.0820.0043.08-0.21-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.0872.7351.560.000.00
DavidsonA100.000.0887.5077.020.000.04
VCUA100.250.0870.0071.420.100.04
DartmouthIvy0.360.0844.4447.53-0.04-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.080.0014.79-0.00-0.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0871.4363.410.000.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.080.0018.94-0.00-0.05
OregonP120.000.0866.6758.060.000.01
DePaulBE0.280.0860.0034.110.06-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0825.0033.17-0.00-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.280.0860.0064.610.060.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.280.080.008.88-0.28-0.07
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0818.1835.99-0.00-0.02
VMISC0.000.0833.3339.22-0.00-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.250.0870.0060.790.100.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0890.0075.520.000.04
WinthropBSth0.280.0828.5747.31-0.12-0.00
CornellIvy0.000.0855.5648.240.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0888.8963.800.000.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0810.0018.01-0.00-0.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0811.1144.62-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0633.3354.74-0.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0644.4457.85-0.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0677.7869.190.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0662.5073.190.000.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.360.0655.5640.500.04-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.580.0633.3342.19-0.19-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0662.5054.980.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.360.0662.5064.770.090.02
LafayettePat0.360.0675.0069.820.180.02
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0080.590.000.03
DetroitHorz0.000.0644.4448.88-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.280.0660.0055.630.060.01
RichmondA100.000.0655.5657.090.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0560.0065.400.000.02
NavyPat0.000.0520.0021.58-0.00-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.580.0527.2737.85-0.27-0.01
TexasB120.000.0590.0081.860.000.03
TowsonCAA0.000.0566.6751.430.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0560.0033.870.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.280.0520.0026.57-0.17-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.0566.6754.660.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.280.0577.7871.960.150.02
AuburnSEC0.280.0544.4436.35-0.03-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0560.0064.930.000.02
LSUSEC0.280.0580.0064.110.170.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0550.0039.340.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.530.0511.1125.02-0.41-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.0572.7353.260.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0562.5064.260.000.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0550.0046.150.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.310.0520.0041.46-0.19-0.01
XavierBE0.000.0580.0070.960.000.02
YaleIvy0.000.0572.7367.180.000.02
BaylorB120.310.0590.0073.870.250.03
CampbellBSth0.000.0525.0044.59-0.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.280.0562.5056.410.070.01
PennIvy0.000.0537.5033.00-0.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0560.0056.560.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0560.0053.820.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0533.3345.50-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.000.0566.6767.300.000.02
DrexelCAA0.000.0525.0037.13-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0566.6777.030.000.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0536.3644.53-0.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0540.0050.32-0.000.00
IPFWSum0.000.0557.1456.900.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0520.0026.33-0.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0560.0037.220.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0514.2934.12-0.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0525.0038.92-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0530.0028.50-0.00-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.050.0038.46-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0544.4470.08-0.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0590.0078.050.000.03
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0588.8963.660.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0533.3331.58-0.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0518.1828.02-0.00-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0522.2237.75-0.00-0.01
USCP120.000.0560.0036.120.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0560.0064.620.000.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0017.51-0.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.030.007.39-0.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0366.6754.830.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0375.0074.340.000.01
LehighPat0.000.0337.5047.71-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0341.6744.33-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0344.4455.75-0.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0362.5066.700.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0377.7870.120.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.280.0366.6757.860.090.00
OhioMAC0.000.0342.8638.11-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0065.410.000.01
ArmyPat0.280.0377.7868.780.150.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.250.0333.3349.71-0.08-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.280.0340.0046.73-0.06-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.280.030.0012.36-0.28-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0350.0052.710.000.00
FurmanSC0.000.0325.0029.59-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0385.7172.940.000.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.0357.1453.130.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.250.0366.6764.310.080.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0094.790.000.02
LibertyBSth0.280.0325.0034.77-0.14-0.01
LipscombASun0.310.0325.0042.64-0.16-0.00
MercerSC0.250.0337.5042.45-0.06-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0370.0052.610.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0325.0032.77-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0337.5046.50-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.250.0320.0029.81-0.15-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.250.0344.4444.78-0.03-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0033.84-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0377.7865.390.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0350.0053.700.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0355.5649.500.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.250.0387.5085.320.190.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0028.26-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0320.0038.24-0.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0322.2230.99-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0034.08-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0375.0068.680.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0375.0069.120.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0390.0066.690.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0385.7170.350.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0344.4451.58-0.000.00
ElonCAA0.000.0337.5047.87-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0366.6762.620.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0375.0078.480.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0320.0039.70-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0318.1821.30-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0333.3332.85-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0388.8969.390.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0336.3633.67-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0371.4359.920.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0333.3334.28-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0318.1846.16-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0023.15-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0355.5656.400.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0350.0032.620.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0377.7867.290.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0375.0058.430.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0350.0040.880.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0316.6730.84-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0330.0037.28-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0390.0066.940.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0360.0057.600.000.00