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Through games of Nov 23, 2014.


Rutgers

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:179.7
Current RPI:127
Expected SOS:57
Current SOS:105
Current Record:2-1
Expected Record:11-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:2-1
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:181
Expected OOC SOS:198



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1157.80.04%
18-1259.60.07%
17-1376.80.39%
16-1492.31.42%
15-15110.12.83%
14-16126.57.19%
13-17145.112.27%
12-18163.516.51%
11-19181.919.27%
10-20199.117.13%
9-21215.612.78%
8-22233.16.70%
7-23250.22.44%
6-24266.20.78%
5-25277.90.14%
4-26301.30.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rutgers.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16George Washington (37.8)A10H53-70L0%0.0
11-19Fairleigh Dickinson (279.0)NECH61-44W100%0.0
11-23St. Francis NY (205.1)NECH76-73W100%0.0
11-25Saint Peter's (298.6)MAACH0-083%11.3
11-28Vanderbilt (131.2)SECN0-036%-4.4
12-1Clemson (118.4)ACCA0-018%-10.9
12-6Seton Hall (49.9)BEA0-014%-13.1
12-9New Hampshire (275.0)AEH0-081%10.7
12-14Manhattan (186.9)MAACN0-051%0.4
12-20St. Francis PA (251.3)NECH0-080%10.3
12-23Sacred Heart (314.8)NECH0-090%15.4
12-28Monmouth (171.1)MAACA0-039%-3.4
12-30Northwestern (172.0)B10H0-062%3.6
1-3Penn St. (146.5)B10H0-055%1.5
1-8Nebraska (79.5)B10A0-016%-11.8
1-11Wisconsin (6.4)B10H0-08%-16.6
1-14Maryland (83.8)B10A0-017%-11.6
1-17Minnesota (62.0)B10A0-012%-14.0
1-20Michigan (46.9)B10H0-026%-7.8
1-24Penn St. (146.5)B10A0-032%-5.7
1-27Michigan St. (34.2)B10H0-020%-10.2
1-31Indiana (67.7)B10A0-014%-12.7
2-3Illinois (48.3)B10A0-011%-14.8
2-8Ohio St. (28.5)B10H0-017%-11.4
2-12Purdue (59.5)B10H0-030%-6.3
2-19Iowa (38.7)B10A0-08%-17.0
2-22Indiana (67.7)B10H0-032%-5.5
2-26Purdue (59.5)B10A0-013%-13.5
3-3Maryland (83.8)B10H0-036%-4.4
3-7Michigan (46.9)B10A0-011%-15.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rutgers's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rutgers's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rutgers.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RutgersB1034.7226.1346.1532.42-2.67-9.19
MarylandB100.003.98100.0059.210.000.73
IndianaB100.003.95100.0061.430.000.90
Penn St.B100.003.9580.0043.450.00-0.52
PurdueB100.003.95100.0060.850.000.86
MichiganB100.003.89100.0063.190.001.03
Ohio St.B100.002.42100.0075.720.001.25
Michigan St.B100.002.3766.6770.770.000.98
IllinoisB100.002.35100.0064.970.000.70
MinnesotaB100.002.3466.6761.450.000.54
NorthwesternB100.002.32100.0041.980.00-0.37
WisconsinB100.002.31100.0084.800.001.61
NebraskaB100.002.3166.6752.650.000.12
IowaB100.002.2950.0064.950.000.68
Sacred HeartNEC0.001.9033.3331.90-0.00-0.69
St. Francis NYNEC16.671.870.0058.78-16.670.33
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC16.671.87100.0041.0816.67-0.33
MonmouthMAAC0.001.8650.0054.280.000.16
St. Francis PANEC0.001.8433.3345.54-0.00-0.16
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.001.840.0028.46-0.00-0.79
ManhattanMAAC0.001.7825.0052.07-0.000.07
George WashingtonA1016.671.7550.0075.640.000.90
VanderbiltSEC0.001.72100.0049.870.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.001.72100.0062.880.000.44
New HampshireAE0.001.690.0042.69-0.00-0.25
ClemsonACC0.001.6750.0049.320.00-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.310.0030.28-0.00-0.12
WagnerNEC0.000.310.0040.53-0.00-0.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.290.0045.86-0.00-0.02
BryantNEC0.000.2650.0054.650.000.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.2633.3338.76-0.00-0.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.2625.0043.58-0.00-0.03
RiderMAAC0.000.2066.6751.350.000.01
FordhamA100.000.190.0023.10-0.00-0.10
Notre DameACC0.000.1780.0073.060.000.08
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1766.6756.220.000.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1740.0032.83-0.00-0.06
IonaMAAC0.000.1775.0073.840.000.08
MaristMAAC0.000.170.0034.85-0.00-0.05
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1733.3323.98-0.00-0.09
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.1766.6765.840.000.05
SienaMAAC0.000.1733.3360.02-0.000.03
UMBCAE0.000.150.0038.34-0.00-0.03
BrownIvy0.000.1425.0036.88-0.00-0.04
DuquesneA100.000.14100.0053.680.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.1450.0069.230.000.05
GeorgetownBE2.780.14100.0062.772.780.04
ButlerBE0.000.14100.0060.160.000.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.14100.0078.240.000.08
NJITind0.000.1225.0025.81-0.00-0.06
HartfordAE0.000.1275.0040.710.00-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.1260.0041.500.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.1225.0043.02-0.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.12100.0051.580.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.1275.0068.410.000.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1150.0063.170.000.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.11100.0061.860.000.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.11100.0052.480.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.1125.0036.00-0.00-0.03
MarquetteBE0.000.1133.3341.27-0.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.110.0033.64-0.00-0.04
VirginiaACC2.780.11100.0075.162.780.06
North FloridaASun0.000.110.0045.55-0.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.1166.6751.770.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0933.3363.61-0.000.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.090.0028.81-0.00-0.04
MaineAE0.000.090.0017.44-0.00-0.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.09100.0052.940.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.090.0033.26-0.00-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0027.48-0.00-0.04
OregonP120.000.09100.0069.430.000.03
CreightonBE0.000.09100.0063.150.000.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0933.3340.10-0.00-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.09100.0036.140.00-0.02
DukeACC0.000.09100.0085.260.000.06
George MasonA100.000.0920.0021.84-0.00-0.05
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0975.0056.300.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC2.780.090.0025.81-2.78-0.04
ColgatePat0.000.0933.3341.47-0.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.09100.0054.720.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.09100.0062.920.000.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.080.0034.75-0.00-0.03
VMISC0.000.0833.3338.04-0.00-0.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0850.0061.440.000.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0875.0065.560.000.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.080.0040.51-0.00-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.08100.0071.350.000.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.080.0037.29-0.00-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0866.6732.890.00-0.03
CornellIvy0.000.0833.3337.81-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.080.0019.05-0.00-0.05
Stony BrookAE0.000.0633.3365.28-0.000.02
VermontAE0.000.0633.3358.75-0.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0640.0038.78-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0070.780.000.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0058.720.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0633.3353.24-0.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0633.3361.17-0.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0053.380.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0666.6764.690.000.02
NavyPat0.000.0620.0032.30-0.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.06100.0058.810.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA104.170.0650.0038.210.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0660.0057.690.000.01
LafayettePat0.000.0675.0065.250.000.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0625.0041.22-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.06100.0059.020.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0073.710.000.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.060.0043.24-0.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0666.6740.980.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0650.0053.570.000.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0666.6768.430.000.02
IPFWSum0.000.0650.0063.140.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.0650.0031.800.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0666.6750.120.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0680.0061.870.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.06100.0046.960.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0633.3347.23-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0633.3346.72-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0071.680.000.02
RichmondA100.000.0666.6765.070.000.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0666.6757.190.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0640.0039.12-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0640.0049.19-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0042.760.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.06100.0074.410.000.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.0650.0042.650.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.060.0049.00-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.000.06100.0075.510.000.03
TexasB120.000.06100.0081.510.000.04
TowsonCAA0.000.0680.0059.220.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.06100.0079.170.000.03
MissouriSEC0.000.0666.6746.610.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0026.81-0.00-0.03
YaleIvy0.000.0675.0069.430.000.02
High PointBSth0.000.0675.0055.430.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0625.0020.19-0.00-0.03
PennIvy0.000.060.0025.85-0.00-0.03
Arizona St.P120.000.06100.0056.760.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0069.20-0.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0053.290.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0666.6753.080.000.00
CampbellBSth0.000.050.0031.49-0.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0525.0052.16-0.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0566.6746.160.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0566.6732.670.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0575.0070.240.000.02
DrexelCAA0.000.0520.0036.50-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0566.6767.580.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0550.0050.460.000.00
LamarSlnd0.000.050.0033.64-0.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0566.6752.830.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.050.0032.53-0.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0550.0042.910.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.050.0029.00-0.00-0.02
USCP120.000.0540.0028.63-0.00-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0021.40-0.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.030.0020.55-0.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0375.0054.060.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.03100.0051.850.000.00
LehighPat0.000.030.0032.42-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0320.0028.32-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0366.6747.490.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0350.0034.180.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0320.0028.39-0.00-0.01
ArmyPat2.780.03100.0066.602.780.01
BaylorB120.000.03100.0067.490.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0375.0063.000.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0366.6760.490.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0375.0069.780.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.030.0046.47-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0375.0072.870.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0333.3344.23-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0019.35-0.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0035.81-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0333.3324.24-0.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.030.0067.33-0.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0088.080.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0333.3334.44-0.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.000.030.0043.50-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.030.0037.72-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0375.0058.200.000.00
MercerSC0.000.0333.3353.66-0.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.030.0033.50-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0054.940.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.030.0043.50-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.03100.0075.190.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0350.0054.910.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0350.0045.730.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0325.0045.26-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0366.6752.020.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0038.43-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6753.120.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0069.220.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.030.0027.66-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0333.3343.07-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0366.6746.380.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0333.3343.32-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.03100.0084.310.000.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0031.79-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0054.990.000.00
ElonCAA0.000.0333.3341.23-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.030.0046.28-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.03100.0063.820.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0024.68-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0320.0034.58-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0366.6749.820.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0320.0026.97-0.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.38-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0325.0038.29-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.03100.0062.120.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0320.0053.22-0.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0021.84-0.00-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0045.000.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.03100.0044.560.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0071.230.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.03100.0050.740.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.03100.0071.890.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0366.6758.100.000.00