The results on this page EXCLUDE CONFERNCE TOURNAMENT FORECASTS and are UPDATED DAILY

New! For the weekly updated Dayton page with conference tournament forecasts, click here.

Through games of Feb 7, 2010.

Dayton

Conference:		A10
Expected RPI:		32.1
Current RPI:		33
Expected SOS:		41
Current SOS:		38
Current Record:		16-6
Expected Record:		22-8
Current Conf Record:		5-3
Expected Conf Record:		11-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:		1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:		3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:		1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:		12-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:		4-0
Current OOC Record:		11-3
Expected OOC Record:		11-3
Expected OOC RPI:		18
Expected OOC SOS:		21

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
24-6	15.1	3.65%
23-7	20.3	18.08%
22-8	27.2	32.63%
21-9	36.7	28.83%
20-10	46.9	12.56%
19-11	57.1	3.64%
18-12	67.3	0.56%
17-13	77.8	0.04%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Dayton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-14	Creighton (123.3)	MVC	H	90-80	W	100%	0.0
11-19	Georgia Tech (25.2)	ACC	N	63-59	W	100%	0.0
11-20	Villanova (6.2)	BE	N	65-71	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Kansas St. (7.0)	B12	N	75-83	L	0%	0.0
11-28	Towson (292.1)	CAA	H	74-69	W	100%	0.0
12-2	Miami OH (135.6)	MAC	A	65-58	W	100%	0.0
12-5	Lehigh (160.8)	Pat	H	89-71	W	100%	0.0
12-8	George Mason (132.8)	CAA	A	56-55	W	100%	0.0
12-11	Old Dominion (35.4)	CAA	H	58-50	W	100%	0.0
12-19	Presbyterian (326.0)	BSth	H	71-52	W	100%	0.0
12-21	Appalachian St. (134.5)	SC	H	65-49	W	100%	0.0
12-29	Boston University (152.4)	AE	H	74-60	W	100%	0.0
1-1	New Mexico (14.3)	MWC	A	66-68	L	0%	0.0
1-5	Ball St. (210.1)	MAC	H	59-35	W	100%	0.0
1-9	Duquesne (123.2)	A10	H	78-72	W	100%	0.0
1-13	Fordham (296.2)	A10	A	74-58	W	100%	0.0
1-16	Xavier (26.6)	A10	A	74-78	L	0%	0.0
1-20	George Washington (136.9)	A10	H	66-51	W	100%	0.0
1-23	Saint Joseph's (177.5)	A10	A	59-60	L	0%	0.0
1-26	Rhode Island (20.7)	A10	H	64-65	L	0%	0.0
1-30	St. Bonaventure (184.1)	A10	A	75-58	W	100%	0.0
2-6	Xavier (26.6)	A10	H	90-65	W	100%	0.0
2-10	Charlotte (47.1)	A10	H	0-0		78%	8.6
2-13	St. Louis (124.0)	A10	A	0-0		64%	3.9
2-18	La Salle (138.5)	A10	H	0-0		89%	13.5
2-21	Duquesne (123.2)	A10	A	0-0		70%	5.8
2-24	Temple (24.9)	A10	A	0-0		35%	-4.3
2-27	Massachusetts (194.2)	A10	H	0-0		94%	16.5
3-4	Richmond (38.1)	A10	A	0-0		41%	-2.5
3-6	St. Louis (124.0)	A10	H	0-0		86%	11.9

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Dayton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Sorted by , Current Weight, End-Of-Season Weight, Current Help Index, Expected Help Index, and then Alphabetically.

Weights are percentages.

Dayton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Dayton.

Help Ind is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

BY CURRENT WEIGHT: (top)

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Help	Exp Help
Dayton	A10	26.21	26.02	71.74	72.03	11.40	11.46
Xavier	A10	4.90	3.87	71.43	72.97	2.10	1.78
Saint Joseph's	A10	2.70	2.26	36.36	34.39	-0.74	-0.71
George Washington	A10	2.68	2.26	57.14	57.03	0.38	0.32
Duquesne	A10	2.63	3.84	52.38	52.36	0.13	0.18
Rhode Island	A10	2.58	2.18	85.71	80.84	1.84	1.34
George Mason	CAA	2.57	1.86	65.22	59.73	0.78	0.36
Miami OH	MAC	2.52	1.84	45.45	49.32	-0.23	-0.02
Fordham	A10	2.52	2.23	10.00	9.20	-2.02	-1.82
Towson	CAA	2.52	1.83	23.81	24.34	-1.32	-0.94
St. Bonaventure	A10	2.47	2.21	42.11	44.22	-0.39	-0.25
Creighton	MVC	2.47	1.78	52.17	52.43	0.11	0.09
Boston University	AE	2.43	1.75	56.52	59.76	0.32	0.34
Villanova	BE	2.42	1.81	90.48	81.91	1.96	1.15
Old Dominion	CAA	2.42	1.89	75.00	75.99	1.21	0.98
Kansas St.	B12	2.42	1.75	80.95	78.87	1.50	1.01
New Mexico	MWC	2.37	1.72	86.96	82.97	1.75	1.14
Georgia Tech	ACC	2.37	1.75	76.19	70.56	1.24	0.72
Ball St.	MAC	2.32	1.72	55.00	53.54	0.23	0.12
Lehigh	Pat	2.32	1.72	68.18	68.09	0.84	0.62
Appalachian St.	SC	2.27	1.67	57.89	62.38	0.36	0.41
Presbyterian	BSth	2.27	1.67	13.04	15.84	-1.68	-1.14
Temple	A10	0.46	2.26	79.17	77.98	0.27	1.27
Charlotte	A10	0.36	2.26	78.26	73.46	0.20	1.06
Drexel	CAA	0.35	0.20	56.00	55.91	0.04	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.31	2.18	31.82	32.54	-0.11	-0.76
Bowling Green	MAC	0.31	0.28	47.62	45.68	-0.01	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.31	2.20	47.83	47.58	-0.01	-0.11
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.30	0.23	30.43	32.32	-0.12	-0.08
Stony Brook	AE	0.25	0.14	68.18	68.72	0.09	0.05
Marquette	BE	0.25	0.14	65.22	66.09	0.08	0.04
Richmond	A10	0.25	2.26	75.00	71.63	0.12	0.98
James Madison	CAA	0.25	0.17	43.48	39.98	-0.03	-0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.24	0.17	45.83	47.77	-0.02	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.24	0.17	66.67	68.11	0.08	0.06
Delaware	CAA	0.24	0.25	26.09	26.91	-0.12	-0.12
St. Louis	A10	0.21	3.81	61.90	58.44	0.05	0.64
Holy Cross	Pat	0.20	0.17	26.09	31.05	-0.10	-0.06
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.20	0.12	8.70	11.46	-0.16	-0.09
Georgia St.	CAA	0.19	0.17	37.50	38.45	-0.05	-0.04
Liberty	BSth	0.19	0.11	42.86	41.51	-0.03	-0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.17	0.12	71.43	69.51	0.07	0.05
St. John's	BE	0.16	0.11	54.55	49.24	0.01	-0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.16	0.17	39.13	38.63	-0.03	-0.04
Savannah St.	ind	0.16	0.12	30.00	31.19	-0.06	-0.04
Akron	MAC	0.16	0.11	69.57	66.00	0.06	0.04
Buffalo	MAC	0.16	0.12	55.00	52.00	0.02	0.00
Butler	Horz	0.15	0.09	83.33	83.91	0.10	0.06
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.15	0.09	52.17	53.84	0.01	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.15	0.12	47.83	44.73	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.15	0.11	76.19	72.73	0.08	0.05
Wake Forest	ACC	0.15	0.14	76.19	71.14	0.08	0.06
Georgetown	BE	0.15	0.11	77.27	73.36	0.08	0.05
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.15	0.17	77.27	77.12	0.08	0.09
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.15	0.11	22.22	26.51	-0.08	-0.05
Cincinnati	BE	0.15	0.11	60.87	55.54	0.03	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.15	0.14	69.57	70.29	0.06	0.06
Radford	BSth	0.15	0.14	52.38	56.23	0.01	0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.14	0.08	22.73	22.60	-0.08	-0.05
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.14	0.11	21.05	22.43	-0.08	-0.06
Canisius	MAAC	0.11	0.09	44.00	45.15	-0.01	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.11	0.12	47.83	46.11	-0.00	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.11	0.06	45.45	46.81	-0.01	-0.00
Davidson	SC	0.11	0.14	47.62	50.81	-0.01	0.00
Louisville	BE	0.11	0.09	65.22	62.07	0.03	0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.11	0.06	70.83	73.80	0.05	0.03
Robert Morris	NEC	0.11	0.09	66.67	64.02	0.04	0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.11	0.06	69.57	64.51	0.04	0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.11	0.09	31.82	42.24	-0.04	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.11	0.12	43.48	39.42	-0.01	-0.02
Furman	SC	0.10	0.06	42.86	41.05	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.10	0.09	66.67	63.46	0.03	0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.10	0.11	52.38	54.80	0.00	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.09	50.00	52.29	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.09	47.62	46.79	-0.00	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.10	0.11	36.36	37.37	-0.03	-0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.10	0.09	50.00	50.96	0.00	0.00
Purdue	B10	0.10	0.06	86.36	81.80	0.08	0.04
Western Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.11	54.55	56.62	0.01	0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.10	0.06	33.33	46.80	-0.03	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.10	0.09	82.61	82.33	0.07	0.06
Florida St.	ACC	0.10	0.06	73.91	69.49	0.05	0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.10	0.09	65.22	67.00	0.03	0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.10	0.06	73.91	72.52	0.05	0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.10	0.09	69.57	63.55	0.04	0.02
Providence	BE	0.10	0.09	52.17	46.62	0.00	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.10	0.06	66.67	65.54	0.03	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.10	0.08	69.57	68.48	0.04	0.03
Hartford	AE	0.10	0.12	30.43	32.48	-0.04	-0.04
Indiana St.	MVC	0.10	0.09	56.52	54.46	0.01	0.01
Maine	AE	0.10	0.09	63.64	61.86	0.03	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.10	0.11	52.17	48.76	0.00	-0.00
Colorado	B12	0.10	0.09	42.86	40.56	-0.01	-0.02
DePaul	BE	0.10	0.06	34.78	33.89	-0.03	-0.02
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.10	0.11	16.67	19.94	-0.07	-0.07
Princeton	Ivy	0.10	0.06	70.59	70.98	0.04	0.02
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.10	0.09	69.57	71.78	0.04	0.04
Siena	MAAC	0.10	0.08	83.33	81.25	0.07	0.05
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.10	0.09	30.43	30.27	-0.04	-0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.10	0.09	69.57	66.88	0.04	0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.10	0.06	19.05	22.94	-0.06	-0.03
Harvard	Ivy	0.10	0.06	73.68	75.41	0.05	0.03
Nebraska	B12	0.10	0.14	56.52	50.42	0.01	0.00
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.10	0.08	81.82	80.91	0.06	0.05
North Carolina	ACC	0.10	0.09	56.52	51.96	0.01	0.00
Texas A&M	B12	0.10	0.06	72.73	66.85	0.05	0.02
American	Pat	0.10	0.06	30.43	32.39	-0.04	-0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.10	0.06	39.13	35.38	-0.02	-0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.10	0.08	52.00	49.34	0.00	-0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.10	0.06	28.57	27.72	-0.04	-0.02
Missouri	B12	0.10	0.11	73.91	70.60	0.05	0.05
Bucknell	Pat	0.10	0.14	37.50	39.23	-0.02	-0.03
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.10	0.06	15.79	17.64	-0.07	-0.04
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.10	0.05	82.61	75.26	0.06	0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.10	0.06	4.17	4.73	-0.09	-0.05
Longwood	ind	0.09	0.08	23.81	29.40	-0.05	-0.03
Albany	AE	0.09	0.06	23.08	25.77	-0.05	-0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.09	0.08	52.17	50.21	0.00	0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.09	0.06	40.00	40.09	-0.02	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.09	0.06	80.95	82.07	0.06	0.04
Drake	MVC	0.09	0.06	44.00	43.20	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.09	0.06	40.91	34.84	-0.02	-0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.09	0.06	72.00	70.73	0.04	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.09	0.11	66.67	64.62	0.03	0.03
New Hampshire	AE	0.09	0.06	35.00	38.23	-0.03	-0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.09	0.05	61.90	56.37	0.02	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.09	0.05	66.67	67.74	0.03	0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.09	0.06	79.17	77.30	0.06	0.03
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.09	0.06	39.13	47.65	-0.02	-0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.09	0.14	68.18	66.65	0.03	0.05
Arkansas	SEC	0.06	0.03	52.17	48.47	0.00	-0.00
Campbell	ASun	0.06	0.03	57.14	58.76	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.06	0.03	50.00	53.75	0.00	0.00
Elon	SC	0.06	0.09	19.05	23.26	-0.04	-0.05
Georgia Southern	SC	0.06	0.06	17.39	20.11	-0.04	-0.04
NC Greensboro	SC	0.06	0.09	21.74	24.84	-0.03	-0.04
Niagara	MAAC	0.06	0.03	52.00	51.84	0.00	0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.03	23.81	27.28	-0.03	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.06	0.06	28.57	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.12	27.27	25.82	-0.03	-0.06
Syracuse	BE	0.06	0.06	95.83	91.37	0.05	0.05
The Citadel	SC	0.06	0.03	45.45	45.80	-0.01	-0.00
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.03	66.67	67.94	0.02	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.06	33.33	35.33	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.03	27.27	29.40	-0.02	-0.01
North Carolina Central	ind	0.05	0.03	4.76	9.78	-0.05	-0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.03	8.70	9.54	-0.04	-0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.06	45.45	44.03	-0.00	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.09	8.70	10.09	-0.04	-0.07
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.03	35.00	33.21	-0.02	-0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.03	40.91	43.37	-0.01	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	54.14	0.01	0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.03	23.81	27.31	-0.03	-0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.06	20.00	21.94	-0.03	-0.03
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.03	33.33	33.00	-0.02	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.09	47.62	45.44	-0.00	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.03	25.00	26.64	-0.03	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.06	33.33	30.82	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.11	56.52	50.47	0.01	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.11	95.65	91.32	0.05	0.09
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.06	52.38	49.31	0.00	-0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.06	71.43	67.85	0.02	0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.06	42.86	42.46	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	58.33	54.32	0.01	0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.09	70.83	63.39	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P10	0.05	0.03	45.45	40.28	-0.00	-0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.09	73.91	70.80	0.02	0.04
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.06	47.83	42.90	-0.00	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.08	57.14	57.47	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	GWC	0.05	0.03	50.00	60.53	0.00	0.01
Southern California	P10	0.05	0.03	60.87	59.61	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.03	82.61	78.76	0.03	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.03	66.67	57.29	0.02	0.00
Washington St.	P10	0.05	0.03	63.64	58.79	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.11	86.36	82.20	0.04	0.07
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.03	30.00	31.79	-0.02	-0.01
Winston Salem St.	ind	0.05	0.06	29.41	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
Army	Pat	0.05	0.06	57.14	59.04	0.01	0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.06	27.27	31.08	-0.02	-0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.03	40.00	39.13	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.08	85.71	85.57	0.04	0.06
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	47.06	50.65	-0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.03	95.65	88.67	0.05	0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.09	60.87	59.16	0.01	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.03	63.64	64.66	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.05	0.03	41.67	42.69	-0.01	-0.00
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.03	22.22	27.56	-0.03	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.99	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	62.50	65.32	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.06	36.36	38.12	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.05	35.00	30.59	-0.01	-0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.03	23.81	28.38	-0.02	-0.01
Brigham Young	MWC	0.05	0.05	87.50	87.42	0.04	0.04
California	P10	0.05	0.03	65.22	68.42	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	59.09	52.85	0.01	0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.06	60.87	56.49	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.11	73.91	67.72	0.02	0.04
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.08	20.00	23.58	-0.03	-0.04
Hawaii	WAC	0.05	0.03	36.36	33.80	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.06	42.86	44.37	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.03	22.73	24.05	-0.03	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.03	66.67	59.01	0.02	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.03	45.45	44.00	-0.00	-0.00
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.08	33.33	37.71	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.03	45.00	45.40	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.08	91.30	88.21	0.04	0.06
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.03	75.00	73.72	0.02	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.03	54.17	58.55	0.00	0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.03	33.33	33.43	-0.02	-0.01
Seattle	ind	0.05	0.03	45.83	48.87	-0.00	-0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.03	19.05	20.58	-0.03	-0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.11	54.55	54.05	0.00	0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.05	40.91	38.27	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.06	68.18	59.30	0.02	0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.06	31.82	29.58	-0.02	-0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.03	33.33	36.45	-0.02	-0.01
Utah	MWC	0.05	0.05	45.45	44.32	-0.00	-0.01
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.06	68.00	67.20	0.02	0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.05	33.33	30.72	-0.02	-0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.03	55.00	53.61	0.00	0.00
Belmont	ASun	0.00	0.06	60.00	63.83	0.00	0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.00	0.03	47.62	44.47	-0.00	-0.00
College of Charleston	SC	0.00	0.06	66.67	65.62	0.00	0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.00	0.06	47.62	49.08	-0.00	-0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.00	0.03	23.53	25.88	-0.00	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.00	0.03	38.10	41.29	-0.00	-0.00
Memphis	CUSA	0.00	0.03	69.57	69.99	0.00	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.00	0.03	68.18	62.73	0.00	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.00	0.03	79.17	76.61	0.00	0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.00	0.06	22.73	27.28	-0.00	-0.03
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.00	0.06	38.10	38.08	-0.00	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.00	0.03	59.09	51.13	0.00	0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.00	0.03	34.78	32.23	-0.00	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.00	0.05	59.09	54.41	0.00	0.00
South Florida	BE	0.00	0.03	65.22	62.18	0.00	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.00	0.03	43.48	43.78	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.00	0.03	81.82	75.66	0.00	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.00	0.03	5.00	8.59	-0.00	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.00	0.06	81.82	72.57	0.00	0.03

BY END-OF-SEASON WEIGHT: (top)

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Help	Exp Help
Dayton	A10	26.21	26.02	71.74	72.03	11.40	11.46
Xavier	A10	4.90	3.87	71.43	72.97	2.10	1.78
Duquesne	A10	2.63	3.84	52.38	52.36	0.13	0.18
St. Louis	A10	0.21	3.81	61.90	58.44	0.05	0.64
Saint Joseph's	A10	2.70	2.26	36.36	34.39	-0.74	-0.71
Temple	A10	0.46	2.26	79.17	77.98	0.27	1.27
Richmond	A10	0.25	2.26	75.00	71.63	0.12	0.98
George Washington	A10	2.68	2.26	57.14	57.03	0.38	0.32
Charlotte	A10	0.36	2.26	78.26	73.46	0.20	1.06
Fordham	A10	2.52	2.23	10.00	9.20	-2.02	-1.82
St. Bonaventure	A10	2.47	2.21	42.11	44.22	-0.39	-0.25
La Salle	A10	0.31	2.20	47.83	47.58	-0.01	-0.11
Rhode Island	A10	2.58	2.18	85.71	80.84	1.84	1.34
Massachusetts	A10	0.31	2.18	31.82	32.54	-0.11	-0.76
Old Dominion	CAA	2.42	1.89	75.00	75.99	1.21	0.98
George Mason	CAA	2.57	1.86	65.22	59.73	0.78	0.36
Miami OH	MAC	2.52	1.84	45.45	49.32	-0.23	-0.02
Towson	CAA	2.52	1.83	23.81	24.34	-1.32	-0.94
Villanova	BE	2.42	1.81	90.48	81.91	1.96	1.15
Creighton	MVC	2.47	1.78	52.17	52.43	0.11	0.09
Boston University	AE	2.43	1.75	56.52	59.76	0.32	0.34
Georgia Tech	ACC	2.37	1.75	76.19	70.56	1.24	0.72
Kansas St.	B12	2.42	1.75	80.95	78.87	1.50	1.01
New Mexico	MWC	2.37	1.72	86.96	82.97	1.75	1.14
Ball St.	MAC	2.32	1.72	55.00	53.54	0.23	0.12
Lehigh	Pat	2.32	1.72	68.18	68.09	0.84	0.62
Appalachian St.	SC	2.27	1.67	57.89	62.38	0.36	0.41
Presbyterian	BSth	2.27	1.67	13.04	15.84	-1.68	-1.14
Bowling Green	MAC	0.31	0.28	47.62	45.68	-0.01	-0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.24	0.25	26.09	26.91	-0.12	-0.12
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.30	0.23	30.43	32.32	-0.12	-0.08
Drexel	CAA	0.35	0.20	56.00	55.91	0.04	0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.16	0.17	39.13	38.63	-0.03	-0.04
Holy Cross	Pat	0.20	0.17	26.09	31.05	-0.10	-0.06
Hofstra	CAA	0.24	0.17	45.83	47.77	-0.02	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.24	0.17	66.67	68.11	0.08	0.06
Georgia St.	CAA	0.19	0.17	37.50	38.45	-0.05	-0.04
James Madison	CAA	0.25	0.17	43.48	39.98	-0.03	-0.03
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.15	0.17	77.27	77.12	0.08	0.09
Davidson	SC	0.11	0.14	47.62	50.81	-0.01	0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.25	0.14	68.18	68.72	0.09	0.05
Nebraska	B12	0.10	0.14	56.52	50.42	0.01	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.15	0.14	69.57	70.29	0.06	0.06
Bucknell	Pat	0.10	0.14	37.50	39.23	-0.02	-0.03
Radford	BSth	0.15	0.14	52.38	56.23	0.01	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.15	0.14	76.19	71.14	0.08	0.06
Marquette	BE	0.25	0.14	65.22	66.09	0.08	0.04
William & Mary	CAA	0.09	0.14	68.18	66.65	0.03	0.05
Western Carolina	SC	0.17	0.12	71.43	69.51	0.07	0.05
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.11	0.12	43.48	39.42	-0.01	-0.02
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.20	0.12	8.70	11.46	-0.16	-0.09
Navy	Pat	0.15	0.12	47.83	44.73	-0.01	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.11	0.12	47.83	46.11	-0.00	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.16	0.12	55.00	52.00	0.02	0.00
Hartford	AE	0.10	0.12	30.43	32.48	-0.04	-0.04
Savannah St.	ind	0.16	0.12	30.00	31.19	-0.06	-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.12	27.27	25.82	-0.03	-0.06
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.11	56.52	50.47	0.01	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.16	0.11	54.55	49.24	0.01	-0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.10	0.11	36.36	37.37	-0.03	-0.03
Western Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.11	54.55	56.62	0.01	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.16	0.11	69.57	66.00	0.06	0.04
Boston College	ACC	0.10	0.11	52.17	48.76	0.00	-0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.10	0.11	52.38	54.80	0.00	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.15	0.11	76.19	72.73	0.08	0.05
Missouri St.	MVC	0.09	0.11	66.67	64.62	0.03	0.03
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.11	54.55	54.05	0.00	0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.11	86.36	82.20	0.04	0.07
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.11	95.65	91.32	0.05	0.09
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.15	0.11	22.22	26.51	-0.08	-0.05
Missouri	B12	0.10	0.11	73.91	70.60	0.05	0.05
Cincinnati	BE	0.15	0.11	60.87	55.54	0.03	0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.10	0.11	16.67	19.94	-0.07	-0.07
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.14	0.11	21.05	22.43	-0.08	-0.06
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.11	73.91	67.72	0.02	0.04
Liberty	BSth	0.19	0.11	42.86	41.51	-0.03	-0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.15	0.11	77.27	73.36	0.08	0.05
Central Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.09	50.00	52.29	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.09	47.62	46.79	-0.00	-0.01
Elon	SC	0.06	0.09	19.05	23.26	-0.04	-0.05
Hampton	MEAC	0.11	0.09	31.82	42.24	-0.04	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.09	8.70	10.09	-0.04	-0.07
Canisius	MAAC	0.11	0.09	44.00	45.15	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.10	0.09	63.64	61.86	0.03	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.11	0.09	66.67	64.02	0.04	0.02
NC Greensboro	SC	0.06	0.09	21.74	24.84	-0.03	-0.04
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.09	47.62	45.44	-0.00	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.10	0.09	65.22	67.00	0.03	0.03
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.10	0.09	69.57	71.78	0.04	0.04
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.10	0.09	30.43	30.27	-0.04	-0.03
Butler	Horz	0.15	0.09	83.33	83.91	0.10	0.06
Illinois St.	MVC	0.10	0.09	66.67	63.46	0.03	0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.10	0.09	56.52	54.46	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.11	0.09	65.22	62.07	0.03	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.10	0.09	50.00	50.96	0.00	0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.15	0.09	52.17	53.84	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.10	0.09	69.57	66.88	0.04	0.03
Colorado	B12	0.10	0.09	42.86	40.56	-0.01	-0.02
Duke	ACC	0.10	0.09	82.61	82.33	0.07	0.06
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.09	60.87	59.16	0.01	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.10	0.09	56.52	51.96	0.01	0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.09	70.83	63.39	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.10	0.09	69.57	63.55	0.04	0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.09	73.91	70.80	0.02	0.04
Providence	BE	0.10	0.09	52.17	46.62	0.00	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.08	85.71	85.57	0.04	0.06
Rider	MAAC	0.10	0.08	52.00	49.34	0.00	-0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.10	0.08	69.57	68.48	0.04	0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.08	57.14	57.47	0.01	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.10	0.08	83.33	81.25	0.07	0.05
Bradley	MVC	0.09	0.08	52.17	50.21	0.00	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.14	0.08	22.73	22.60	-0.08	-0.05
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.08	20.00	23.58	-0.03	-0.04
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.08	33.33	37.71	-0.02	-0.02
Longwood	ind	0.09	0.08	23.81	29.40	-0.05	-0.03
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.10	0.08	81.82	80.91	0.06	0.05
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.08	91.30	88.21	0.04	0.06
Georgia Southern	SC	0.06	0.06	17.39	20.11	-0.04	-0.04
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.06	33.33	35.33	-0.02	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.11	0.06	70.83	73.80	0.05	0.03
Samford	SC	0.06	0.06	28.57	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.06	45.45	44.03	-0.00	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.11	0.06	45.45	46.81	-0.01	-0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.11	0.06	69.57	64.51	0.04	0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.00	0.06	66.67	65.62	0.00	0.02
Furman	SC	0.10	0.06	42.86	41.05	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.10	0.06	86.36	81.80	0.08	0.04
Syracuse	BE	0.06	0.06	95.83	91.37	0.05	0.05
Albany	AE	0.09	0.06	23.08	25.77	-0.05	-0.03
American	Pat	0.10	0.06	30.43	32.39	-0.04	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.10	0.06	33.33	46.80	-0.03	-0.00
Army	Pat	0.05	0.06	57.14	59.04	0.01	0.01
Belmont	ASun	0.00	0.06	60.00	63.83	0.00	0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.06	27.27	31.08	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.00	0.06	47.62	49.08	-0.00	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.10	0.06	73.91	69.49	0.05	0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.10	0.06	73.68	75.41	0.05	0.03
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.06	33.33	30.82	-0.02	-0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.10	0.06	4.17	4.73	-0.09	-0.05
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.00	0.06	22.73	27.28	-0.00	-0.03
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.00	0.06	38.10	38.08	-0.00	-0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.09	0.06	35.00	38.23	-0.03	-0.01
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.06	68.00	67.20	0.02	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.10	0.06	66.67	65.54	0.03	0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.06	60.87	56.49	0.01	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.10	0.06	15.79	17.64	-0.07	-0.04
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.06	20.00	21.94	-0.03	-0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.10	0.06	19.05	22.94	-0.06	-0.03
Indiana	B10	0.09	0.06	40.91	34.84	-0.02	-0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.09	0.06	72.00	70.73	0.04	0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.06	52.38	49.31	0.00	-0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.06	71.43	67.85	0.02	0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.06	42.86	42.46	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.10	0.06	73.91	72.52	0.05	0.03
Princeton	Ivy	0.10	0.06	70.59	70.98	0.04	0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.06	47.83	42.90	-0.00	-0.01
Winston Salem St.	ind	0.05	0.06	29.41	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.06	36.36	38.12	-0.01	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.09	0.06	39.13	47.65	-0.02	-0.00
Texas A&M	B12	0.10	0.06	72.73	66.85	0.05	0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.06	68.18	59.30	0.02	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.00	0.06	81.82	72.57	0.00	0.03
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.09	0.06	40.00	40.09	-0.02	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.09	0.06	80.95	82.07	0.06	0.04
DePaul	BE	0.10	0.06	34.78	33.89	-0.03	-0.02
Drake	MVC	0.09	0.06	44.00	43.20	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.06	42.86	44.37	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.10	0.06	39.13	35.38	-0.02	-0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.06	31.82	29.58	-0.02	-0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.09	0.06	79.17	77.30	0.06	0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.10	0.06	28.57	27.72	-0.04	-0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.10	0.05	82.61	75.26	0.06	0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.00	0.05	59.09	54.41	0.00	0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.05	35.00	30.59	-0.01	-0.02
Brigham Young	MWC	0.05	0.05	87.50	87.42	0.04	0.04
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	59.09	52.85	0.01	0.00
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.09	0.05	61.90	56.37	0.02	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.09	0.05	66.67	67.74	0.03	0.02
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.05	40.91	38.27	-0.01	-0.01
Utah	MWC	0.05	0.05	45.45	44.32	-0.00	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.05	33.33	30.72	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.06	0.03	52.17	48.47	0.00	-0.00
Campbell	ASun	0.06	0.03	57.14	58.76	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.06	0.03	50.00	53.75	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.03	27.27	29.40	-0.02	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.06	0.03	52.00	51.84	0.00	0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.03	23.81	27.28	-0.03	-0.01
North Carolina Central	ind	0.05	0.03	4.76	9.78	-0.05	-0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.03	8.70	9.54	-0.04	-0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.00	0.03	5.00	8.59	-0.00	-0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.06	0.03	45.45	45.80	-0.01	-0.00
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.03	35.00	33.21	-0.02	-0.01