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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Dayton

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:21.0
Current RPI:21
Expected SOS:49
Current SOS:49
Current Record:25-7
Expected Record:25-7
Current Conf Record:15-5
Expected Conf Record:15-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:11-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:13
Expected OOC SOS:9



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-721.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Dayton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Southeast Missouri St. (342.0)OVCH84-53W100%0.0
11-17Alabama (73.0)SECH80-48W100%0.0
11-21William & Mary (67.0)CAAH69-66W100%0.0
11-26Iowa (28.0)B10N82-77W100%0.0
11-27Monmouth (52.0)MAACN73-70W100%0.0
11-29Xavier (7.0)BEN61-90L0%0.0
12-5North Florida (161.0)ASunH86-71W100%0.0
12-9Vanderbilt (63.0)SECA67-72W100%0.0
12-12Chattanooga (50.0)SCH59-61L0%0.0
12-19Furman (167.0)SCH70-50W100%0.0
12-22Miami OH (195.0)MACH64-63W100%0.0
12-30Arkansas (133.0)SECH85-81W100%0.0
1-2Duquesne (162.0)A10A58-66W100%0.0
1-6Massachusetts (171.0)A10H93-63W100%0.0
1-9La Salle (232.0)A10A61-57L0%0.0
1-12Davidson (64.0)A10H80-74W100%0.0
1-15George Washington (68.0)A10H77-70W100%0.0
1-19St. Bonaventure (30.0)A10A79-85W100%0.0
1-24Fordham (176.0)A10A50-64W100%0.0
1-27Saint Louis (206.0)A10H73-37W100%0.0
1-30La Salle (232.0)A10H59-44W100%0.0
2-6George Mason (201.0)A10A64-98W100%0.0
2-9Duquesne (162.0)A10H76-74W100%0.0
2-12Rhode Island (119.0)A10A66-68W100%0.0
2-17Saint Joseph's (22.0)A10A79-70L0%0.0
2-20St. Bonaventure (30.0)A10H72-79L0%0.0
2-23Saint Louis (206.0)A10A49-52W100%0.0
2-27Rhode Island (119.0)A10H66-75L0%0.0
3-1Richmond (121.0)A10A84-85W100%0.0
3-5VCU (37.0)A10H68-67W100%0.0
3-11Richmond (121.0)A10N69-54W100%0.0
3-12Saint Joseph's (22.0)A10N79-82L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Dayton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Dayton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Dayton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DaytonA1026.1426.1475.3375.3313.2513.25
Saint Joseph'sA103.823.8278.1278.122.152.15
Saint LouisA103.793.7936.6736.67-1.01-1.01
La SalleA103.793.7925.0025.00-1.89-1.89
DuquesneA103.773.7751.7251.720.130.13
St. BonaventureA103.763.7675.0075.001.881.88
Rhode IslandA103.743.7453.3353.330.250.25
RichmondA103.723.7253.3353.330.250.25
MassachusettsA102.332.3345.1645.16-0.23-0.23
DavidsonA102.332.3363.3363.330.620.62
VCUA102.332.3372.7372.731.061.06
George WashingtonA102.302.3071.8871.881.011.01
FordhamA102.302.3057.1457.140.330.33
George MasonA102.252.2535.4835.48-0.65-0.65
North FloridaASun1.661.6665.5265.520.510.51
ArkansasSEC1.641.6451.6151.610.050.05
AlabamaSEC1.641.6458.0658.060.260.26
ChattanoogaSC1.611.6183.8783.871.091.09
FurmanSC1.611.6153.3353.330.110.11
VanderbiltSEC1.611.6161.2961.290.360.36
XavierBE1.611.6183.8783.871.091.09
Miami OHMAC1.591.5938.7138.71-0.36-0.36
IowaB101.561.5670.0070.000.620.62
MonmouthMAAC1.561.5681.8281.820.990.99
Southeast Missouri St.OVC1.561.5611.5411.54-1.20-1.20
William & MaryCAA1.561.5664.2964.290.450.45
FloridaSEC0.220.2257.5857.580.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.190.1957.5857.580.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.190.1962.8662.860.050.05
HofstraCAA0.180.1871.8871.880.080.08
MississippiSEC0.180.1862.5062.500.040.04
DrexelCAA0.170.1720.0020.00-0.10-0.10
MercerSC0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.170.1744.1244.12-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.170.1739.3939.39-0.04-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.150.1555.1755.170.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.150.1564.5264.520.040.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
Western CarolinaSC0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
VillanovaBE0.150.1585.2985.290.100.10
AuburnSEC0.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
KentuckySEC0.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
NiagaraMAAC0.140.1421.8821.88-0.08-0.08
TowsonCAA0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.130.1360.7160.710.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
Penn St.B100.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.120.1237.0437.04-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
Texas A&MSEC0.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
Wake ForestACC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
IonaMAAC0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.1121.4321.43-0.06-0.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
LipscombASun0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
OhioMAC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
StetsonASun0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
IllinoisB100.100.1044.1244.12-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
The CitadelSC0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
VMISC0.100.1022.2222.22-0.06-0.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
CanisiusMAAC0.100.1042.4242.42-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
TempleAmer0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
UCFAmer0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
ManhattanMAAC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
LafayettePat0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
PittsburghACC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
LibertyBSth0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
HartfordAE0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0725.9325.93-0.04-0.04
PurdueB100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
CaliforniaP120.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
MarylandB100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
NebraskaB100.070.0747.0647.06-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
AkronMAC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Ball St.MAC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
CreightonBE0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Texas TechB120.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Notre DameACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
DePaulBE0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
RutgersB100.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
AmericanPat0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
USCP120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
NJITASun0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
SyracuseACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
VermontAE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0522.8622.86-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
TCUB120.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
WisconsinB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
ArmyPat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0565.5265.520.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
MaristMAAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
High PointBSth0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
MaineAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
NorthwesternB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0329.1729.17-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
IUPUISum0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
KansasB120.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0220.8320.83-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
TexasB120.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00