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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Dayton

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:43.0
Current RPI:43
Expected SOS:62
Current SOS:62
Current Record:23-10
Expected Record:23-10
Current Conf Record:11-7
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:12-3
Expected OOC Record:12-3
Expected OOC RPI:44
Expected OOC SOS:100



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-1043.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Dayton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9IPFW (115.0)SumH81-80W100%0.0
11-13St. Francis PA (298.0)NECH70-56W100%0.0
11-16St. Francis NY (190.0)NECH78-58W100%0.0
11-20Georgia Tech (157.0)ACCA72-82W100%0.0
11-25Gonzaga (20.0)WCCN79-84W100%0.0
11-26Baylor (30.0)B12N66-67L0%0.0
11-27California (63.0)P12N82-64W100%0.0
12-4Delaware St. (329.0)MEACH56-46W100%0.0
12-7Illinois St. (134.0)MVCA81-75L0%0.0
12-14Central Michigan (294.0)MACH84-58W100%0.0
12-19Iona (59.0)MAACH96-84W100%0.0
12-22USC (176.0)P12H76-79L0%0.0
12-29Murray St. (142.0)OVCH72-51W100%0.0
1-1Winthrop (168.0)BSthH81-47W100%0.0
1-4Mississippi (94.0)SECA80-83W100%0.0
1-11Saint Louis (27.0)A10H59-67L0%0.0
1-15Fordham (226.0)A10A68-80W100%0.0
1-18Richmond (75.0)A10A73-64L0%0.0
1-22VCU (13.0)A10H66-80L0%0.0
1-25Rhode Island (155.0)A10A88-76L0%0.0
1-29Saint Joseph's (32.0)A10H57-60L0%0.0
2-1George Washington (29.0)A10H75-65W100%0.0
2-5George Mason (164.0)A10A67-84W100%0.0
2-8St. Bonaventure (89.0)A10A69-72W100%0.0
2-12Rhode Island (155.0)A10H76-69W100%0.0
2-19La Salle (98.0)A10H65-53W100%0.0
2-22Duquesne (187.0)A10A54-57W100%0.0
2-25Saint Joseph's (32.0)A10A79-53L0%0.0
3-1Massachusetts (23.0)A10H86-79W100%0.0
3-5Saint Louis (27.0)A10A67-72W100%0.0
3-8Richmond (75.0)A10H60-48W100%0.0
3-13Fordham (226.0)A10N87-74W100%0.0
3-14Saint Joseph's (32.0)A10N70-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Dayton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Dayton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Dayton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DaytonA1026.1326.1367.3267.329.059.05
Saint Joseph'sA105.055.0570.0070.002.022.02
FordhamA103.603.6034.4834.48-1.12-1.12
Rhode IslandA103.603.6041.3841.38-0.62-0.62
RichmondA103.563.5658.0658.060.570.57
Saint LouisA103.513.5182.7682.762.302.30
VCUA102.282.2875.7675.761.171.17
St. BonaventureA102.212.2154.8454.840.210.21
George MasonA102.192.1936.6736.67-0.58-0.58
MassachusettsA102.162.1677.4277.421.181.18
George WashingtonA102.112.1177.4277.421.161.16
DuquesneA102.112.1142.8642.86-0.30-0.30
La SalleA102.092.0950.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis PANEC1.661.6633.3333.33-0.55-0.55
St. Francis NYNEC1.591.5956.6756.670.210.21
Delaware St.MEAC1.591.5925.9325.93-0.76-0.76
Georgia TechACC1.571.5750.0050.000.000.00
CaliforniaP121.561.5661.2961.290.350.35
IonaMAAC1.561.5670.9770.970.660.66
USCP121.561.5630.0030.00-0.62-0.62
MississippiSEC1.541.5459.3859.380.290.29
Illinois St.MVC1.541.5448.2848.28-0.05-0.05
WinthropBSth1.541.5458.6258.620.270.27
BaylorB121.521.5265.6265.620.470.47
Central MichiganMAC1.521.5228.5728.57-0.65-0.65
GonzagaWCC1.521.5284.3884.381.041.04
IPFWSum1.521.5270.0070.000.610.61
Murray St.OVC1.521.5261.5461.540.350.35
SienaMAAC0.210.2146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.190.1978.1278.120.110.11
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.170.1725.8125.81-0.08-0.08
Old DominionCUSA0.170.1748.4848.48-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
LSUSEC0.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
Washington St.P120.160.1630.0030.00-0.07-0.07
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.160.1631.0331.03-0.06-0.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.150.1540.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.150.1561.7661.760.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
ColoradoP120.140.1467.6567.650.050.05
SyracuseACC0.140.1484.3884.380.100.10
Boston CollegeACC0.140.1422.5822.58-0.08-0.08
HowardMEAC0.130.1319.3519.35-0.08-0.08
UNC AshevilleBSth0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.120.1216.1316.13-0.08-0.08
WagnerNEC0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
BryantNEC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
ArizonaP120.120.1288.2488.240.090.09
MonmouthMAAC0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
WoffordSC0.120.1258.6258.620.020.02
ClemsonACC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
DrexelCAA0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
PennIvy0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.120.1287.5087.500.090.09
Wake ForestACC0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
CreightonBE0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
MaristMAAC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
NJITind0.100.1036.0036.00-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
BradleyMVC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.100.10100.00100.000.100.10
UMass LowellAE0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Oregon St.P120.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.100.1067.6567.650.030.03
DelawareCAA0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
OaklandHorz0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
StanfordP120.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
UCLAP120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
OhioMAC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Miami FLACC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
OregonP120.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
West VirginiaB120.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
VermontAE0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
Iowa St.B120.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
OklahomaB120.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
TempleAmer0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0921.8821.88-0.05-0.05
Boston UniversityPat0.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
BYUWCC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.080.0864.2964.290.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
New HampshireAE0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Penn St.B100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
ColgatePat0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.070.0710.3410.34-0.06-0.06
LehighPat0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0778.5778.570.040.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
FurmanSC0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
MaineAE0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
South DakotaSum0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Arizona St.P120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
WashingtonP120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Stony BrookAE0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0721.2121.21-0.04-0.04
RiderMAAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
HofstraCAA0.070.0730.3030.30-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
FloridaSEC0.070.0794.1294.120.060.06
KentuckySEC0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Loyola MDPat0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0741.1841.18-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
TexasB120.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0583.8783.870.040.04
Ball St.MAC0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Western KentuckySB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
AmericanPat0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
BrownIvy0.050.0551.8551.850.000.00
DetroitHorz0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0586.2186.210.040.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
YaleIvy0.050.0551.8551.850.000.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
CornellIvy0.050.053.703.70-0.04-0.04
IllinoisB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0513.7913.79-0.03-0.03
NevadaMWC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
LipscombASun0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
VMIBSth0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
ArmyPat0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
LafayettePat0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.020.0270.3770.370.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
XavierBE0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
ElonSC0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
MarquetteBE0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
NebraskaB100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
RutgersAmer0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.020.023.573.57-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0234.6234.62-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
MercerASun0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
MissouriSEC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
TroySB0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00