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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Dayton

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:36.4
Current RPI:20
Expected SOS:55
Current SOS:4
Current Record:4-2
Expected Record:21-8
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:4-2
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:35
Expected OOC SOS:20



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-27.90.07%
26-39.60.45%
25-412.82.08%
24-516.75.97%
23-620.913.24%
22-726.618.88%
21-833.320.36%
20-942.017.06%
19-1052.311.82%
18-1163.26.04%
17-1276.42.81%
16-1392.20.89%
15-14104.90.24%
14-15126.30.06%
13-16144.00.01%
12-17139.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Dayton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Austin Peay (212.5)OVCH96-68W100%0.0
11-15Alabama (102.9)SECA72-77W100%0.0
11-19Saint Mary's (14.7)WCCH57-61L0%0.0
11-24Nebraska (94.1)B10N80-78L0%0.0
11-25Portland (108.8)WCCN74-84W100%0.0
11-27New Mexico (84.5)MWCN64-57W100%0.0
12-3Winthrop (119.7)BSthH0-088%14.1
12-10East Tennessee St. (73.8)SCH0-072%6.9
12-17Northwestern (60.3)B10N0-049%-0.2
12-21Vanderbilt (72.4)SECH0-072%7.0
12-23VMI (316.6)SCH0-099%26.8
12-30La Salle (107.7)A10H0-084%11.8
1-3St. Bonaventure (61.9)A10A0-050%0.1
1-6Rhode Island (33.6)A10H0-064%4.2
1-11Massachusetts (108.4)A10A0-069%5.8
1-14Duquesne (255.5)A10A0-087%13.7
1-19Richmond (173.8)A10H0-087%13.8
1-22Saint Louis (278.6)A10H0-097%22.8
1-27VCU (31.1)A10A0-040%-3.0
1-31Fordham (205.9)A10A0-080%10.2
2-4Duquesne (255.5)A10H0-095%19.8
2-7Saint Joseph's (121.4)A10H0-085%12.4
2-10Rhode Island (33.6)A10A0-044%-2.0
2-14Saint Louis (278.6)A10A0-092%16.6
2-18St. Bonaventure (61.9)A10H0-070%6.2
2-21George Mason (200.3)A10H0-093%17.8
2-24Davidson (48.3)A10A0-048%-0.7
3-1VCU (31.1)A10H0-060%3.2
3-4George Washington (176.1)A10A0-076%8.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Dayton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Dayton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Dayton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DaytonA1029.3526.1262.5070.287.3410.59
Saint LouisA100.694.1433.3328.21-0.23-1.80
DuquesneA100.004.0737.5036.43-0.00-1.11
St. BonaventureA100.004.0766.6772.940.001.87
VCUA100.004.0285.7180.110.002.42
Rhode IslandA100.004.0271.4372.040.001.77
MassachusettsA100.002.4183.3358.960.000.43
RichmondA100.002.4157.1449.840.00-0.01
FordhamA100.002.4157.1444.500.00-0.26
Saint Joseph'sA100.002.4150.0047.870.00-0.10
George WashingtonA100.002.4157.1444.840.00-0.25
DavidsonA100.002.4083.3369.470.000.94
La SalleA100.002.4060.0053.050.000.15
George MasonA100.002.4057.1444.180.00-0.28
East Tennessee St.SC0.001.8283.3382.570.001.18
VMISC0.001.810.0021.91-0.00-1.02
AlabamaSEC8.331.8180.0057.955.000.29
NorthwesternB100.001.7871.4366.730.000.60
PortlandWCC8.331.7875.0059.144.170.33
Saint Mary'sWCC8.331.78100.0088.658.331.38
NebraskaB108.331.7840.0041.60-1.67-0.30
WinthropBSth0.001.7860.0072.750.000.81
VanderbiltSEC0.001.7557.1449.560.00-0.02
Austin PeayOVC8.331.7250.0043.190.00-0.23
New MexicoMWC8.331.7283.3360.695.560.37
MercerSC0.000.2150.0053.050.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.1857.1455.810.000.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.1750.0035.230.00-0.05
IllinoisB100.000.1757.1442.660.00-0.03
BYUWCC0.000.1771.4368.660.000.06
Penn St.B100.000.1762.5043.960.00-0.02
FurmanSC0.000.1620.0049.38-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.000.150.0033.58-0.00-0.05
ChattanoogaSC0.000.1566.6769.810.000.06
PacificWCC0.000.1450.0049.010.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1437.5036.24-0.00-0.04
FloridaSEC0.000.1487.5075.320.000.07
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1466.6765.810.000.04
LSUSEC0.000.1471.4349.770.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.14100.0086.250.000.10
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1320.0048.38-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.690.1225.0038.72-0.35-0.03
The CitadelSC0.000.1240.0027.05-0.00-0.06
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.1266.6758.420.000.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1216.6718.96-0.00-0.08
LibertyBSth0.000.1240.0050.71-0.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1250.0064.840.000.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1275.0054.320.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1250.0043.490.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.1257.1440.590.00-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.12100.0091.060.000.10
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1233.3345.60-0.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.1228.5727.50-0.00-0.05
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1283.3350.740.000.00
IndianaB100.000.1283.3375.060.000.06
BelmontOVC0.000.1240.0061.37-0.000.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.1283.3362.840.000.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1271.4343.020.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.1250.0045.920.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.1171.4363.570.000.03
RutgersB100.000.1183.3344.770.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.1125.0034.47-0.00-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1133.3341.52-0.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1166.6754.380.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.1171.4346.010.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1140.0043.86-0.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.1025.0033.54-0.00-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.1033.3327.13-0.00-0.04
RadfordBSth0.000.1033.3336.31-0.00-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.000.0925.0024.66-0.00-0.05
High PointBSth0.000.0950.0051.260.000.00
Virginia TechACC1.290.0985.7162.920.920.02
ClemsonACC0.690.0966.6753.460.230.01
IowaB100.000.0942.8644.33-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.0971.4366.530.000.03
Michigan St.B100.000.0950.0061.590.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0985.7172.660.000.04
NevadaMWC0.690.0975.0070.470.350.04
PennIvy0.000.0940.0057.97-0.000.01
San Jose St.MWC1.530.0940.0037.44-0.31-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0983.3377.170.000.05
BucknellPat0.000.0975.0067.660.000.03
MarylandB100.000.0985.7156.490.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0950.0058.980.000.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0983.3376.370.000.05
ValparaisoHorz0.690.0985.7174.430.500.04
MinnesotaB100.000.0985.7165.670.000.03
PurdueB100.000.0971.4374.450.000.04
AuburnSEC0.000.0983.3355.200.000.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.0942.8647.69-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0971.4356.280.000.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0928.5750.51-0.000.00
HarvardIvy0.000.080.0043.04-0.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0840.0037.65-0.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0825.0063.95-0.000.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0825.0039.28-0.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0828.5733.92-0.00-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0866.6766.100.000.03
UMBCAE0.000.0880.0055.340.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.690.0850.0052.330.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.080.0017.30-0.00-0.05
HowardMEAC0.000.080.0038.26-0.00-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0885.7173.010.000.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.080.0024.32-0.00-0.04
Fort WayneSum0.830.0666.6770.930.280.03
Murray St.OVC0.000.0642.8661.90-0.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0650.0038.430.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.060.0034.18-0.00-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0633.3338.19-0.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.830.0640.0040.65-0.17-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0620.0041.93-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0642.8634.17-0.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0685.7162.410.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.0614.2933.07-0.00-0.02
KansasB120.000.0685.7176.170.000.03
UC IrvineBW0.000.0650.0054.690.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0683.3370.360.000.02
DrexelCAA0.000.0642.8636.82-0.00-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.690.0616.6732.62-0.46-0.02
South DakotaSum0.000.0657.1447.220.00-0.00
UCLAP121.530.06100.0083.551.530.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0657.1464.940.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0083.120.000.04
UABCUSA0.690.0657.1461.940.100.01
WisconsinB100.000.0675.0073.840.000.03
ArmyPat0.000.0633.3345.58-0.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0650.0042.420.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0640.0050.91-0.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.430.0616.6743.29-0.95-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0666.6756.360.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0685.7180.960.000.04
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0683.3361.490.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0023.47-0.00-0.03
DukeACC0.000.0687.5078.680.000.03
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0660.0039.610.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0657.1440.550.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0650.0066.170.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.060.0028.15-0.00-0.03
Little RockSB0.000.0660.0057.900.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0642.8635.68-0.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.600.0671.4368.100.260.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0616.6727.03-0.00-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0675.0074.990.000.03
UNLVMWC0.000.0671.4349.590.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0650.0053.560.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0640.0055.44-0.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0660.0048.590.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0024.25-0.00-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.600.060.0038.51-0.60-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0047.990.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.06100.0080.780.000.03
TexasB120.000.0650.0036.240.00-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0671.4352.370.000.00
BaylorB120.000.06100.0074.460.000.03
BinghamtonAE0.000.0642.8640.94-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0075.690.000.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0616.6730.27-0.00-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.0620.0041.31-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0666.6739.720.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.060.0042.55-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0620.0032.60-0.00-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0633.3340.49-0.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0685.7155.550.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.0683.3374.620.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0685.7155.890.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0650.0046.670.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0023.26-0.00-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0671.4386.030.000.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0350.0045.410.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.000.0350.0057.480.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0383.3380.550.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0342.8646.78-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0333.3340.39-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0357.1447.320.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.830.0350.0033.010.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.830.0350.0052.140.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0314.2928.66-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0320.0036.00-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0357.1436.050.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0366.6751.090.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0362.5056.500.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0076.650.000.02
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0019.51-0.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0350.0071.330.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0350.0047.560.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.0312.5022.55-0.00-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0357.1459.480.000.01
LehighPat0.000.0333.3367.01-0.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.690.0340.0067.95-0.140.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0333.3333.15-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0385.7180.010.000.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.690.030.0021.30-0.69-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0024.19-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.77-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0314.2937.52-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0325.0056.92-0.000.00
StanfordP120.690.0375.0059.100.350.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.03100.0069.770.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0357.1467.020.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.600.0325.0053.29-0.300.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0042.710.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.000.0385.7170.990.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0385.7168.390.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0027.250.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0350.0029.280.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0316.6730.02-0.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.690.0328.5739.44-0.30-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0371.4359.850.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0342.8642.47-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0320.0034.22-0.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.600.0314.2929.81-0.43-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0350.0051.820.000.00
LafayettePat0.000.0333.3331.87-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0366.6754.420.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0312.5048.98-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0371.4350.570.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0340.0057.49-0.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0019.30-0.00-0.02
OregonP120.000.0371.4366.730.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0328.5723.76-0.00-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.000.0325.0040.37-0.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0342.8638.05-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0360.0052.760.000.00
StetsonASun0.000.0328.5728.26-0.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0385.7163.780.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0342.8650.36-0.000.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0350.0054.490.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.830.030.0033.43-0.83-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0333.3338.20-0.00-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0325.0024.28-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0325.0043.26-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.000.0328.5750.20-0.000.00
DePaulBE0.000.0380.0035.960.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6751.460.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0360.0067.410.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0371.4368.970.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0328.5747.72-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0328.5730.29-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0371.4363.090.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.23-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0371.4365.740.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0024.77-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0325.0030.93-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0038.35-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0075.010.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0366.6732.240.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0325.0040.81-0.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0333.3353.85-0.000.00