live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Nov 19, 2014.


Dayton

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:54.9
Current RPI:209
Expected SOS:87
Current SOS:268
Current Record:1-0
Expected Record:19-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:1-0
Expected OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC RPI:49
Expected OOC SOS:91



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-24.00.04%
25-37.20.38%
24-49.91.37%
23-514.93.87%
22-620.47.81%
21-727.912.38%
20-837.416.48%
19-949.317.44%
18-1063.614.99%
17-1179.811.70%
16-1298.67.15%
15-13119.83.98%
14-14140.21.54%
13-15159.90.61%
12-16182.30.20%
11-17210.00.03%
10-18229.00.01%
9-19234.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Dayton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Alabama A&M (310.1)SWACH76-52W100%0.0
11-20Texas A&M (80.1)SECN0-054%1.2
11-29Illinois Chicago (245.5)HorzH0-090%15.3
12-3Miami OH (239.6)MACA0-081%10.7
12-6Eastern Michigan (173.1)MACH0-087%13.3
12-9Bowling Green (98.2)MACH0-078%9.3
12-13Arkansas (27.1)SECA0-025%-8.1
12-20Boston University (140.2)PatH0-083%11.6
12-23Georgia Tech (98.2)ACCH0-071%6.6
12-30Mississippi (99.9)SECH0-071%6.6
1-3Duquesne (166.4)A10H0-081%10.8
1-8St. Bonaventure (147.5)A10A0-059%2.6
1-10Fordham (243.8)A10A0-076%8.6
1-14La Salle (99.8)A10H0-075%8.1
1-17Saint Louis (57.7)A10H0-064%4.5
1-20Davidson (132.2)A10A0-058%2.3
1-24Richmond (77.7)A10H0-068%5.6
1-29Massachusetts (46.7)A10A0-042%-2.4
2-1Fordham (243.8)A10H0-091%15.8
2-6George Washington (56.5)A10A0-036%-4.5
2-10Saint Louis (57.7)A10A0-041%-2.7
2-14St. Bonaventure (147.5)A10H0-079%9.8
2-19Saint Joseph's (208.4)A10H0-089%14.9
2-21Duquesne (166.4)A10A0-062%3.6
2-25George Mason (192.3)A10H0-089%14.5
2-28VCU (16.4)A10A0-026%-7.8
3-3Rhode Island (117.9)A10H0-075%8.0
3-7La Salle (99.8)A10A0-053%0.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Dayton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Dayton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Dayton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DaytonA1037.5026.18100.0066.6937.508.74
DuquesneA100.004.250.0053.32-0.000.28
Saint LouisA100.004.23100.0070.240.001.71
La SalleA100.004.23100.0058.720.000.74
St. BonaventureA100.004.2250.0052.390.000.20
FordhamA100.004.220.0034.75-0.00-1.29
MassachusettsA100.002.56100.0062.680.000.65
Saint Joseph'sA100.002.5633.3335.47-0.00-0.74
Rhode IslandA100.002.55100.0055.790.000.30
RichmondA100.002.5050.0062.460.000.62
George WashingtonA100.002.50100.0070.840.001.04
VCUA100.002.50100.0076.690.001.33
DavidsonA100.002.50100.0049.950.00-0.00
George MasonA100.002.4950.0030.250.00-0.98
Miami OHMAC0.001.9250.0035.620.00-0.55
Bowling GreenMAC0.001.91100.0065.580.000.60
Eastern MichiganMAC0.001.88100.0052.540.000.10
ArkansasSEC0.001.88100.0075.280.000.95
MississippiSEC0.001.8850.0052.900.000.11
Alabama A&MSWAC50.001.850.0038.74-50.00-0.42
Texas A&MSEC0.001.84100.0058.380.000.31
Georgia TechACC12.501.82100.0050.4912.500.02
Boston UniversityPat0.001.7950.0056.150.000.22
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.001.7950.0042.280.00-0.28
OhioMAC0.000.2850.0055.890.000.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.2266.6762.860.000.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.2233.3331.18-0.00-0.08
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.21100.0039.790.00-0.04
UMass LowellAE0.000.190.0029.73-0.00-0.08
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.190.0039.06-0.00-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.000.19100.0059.950.000.04
VanderbiltSEC0.000.180.0051.34-0.000.00
VirginiaACC0.000.18100.0068.190.000.07
LSUSEC0.000.18100.0064.450.000.05
Ball St.MAC0.000.160.0036.80-0.00-0.04
ToledoMAC0.000.1650.0063.090.000.04
AkronMAC0.000.16100.0067.010.000.05
Penn St.B100.000.16100.0049.040.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.1650.0053.390.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.16100.0058.110.000.03
HowardMEAC0.000.160.0037.97-0.00-0.04
SienaMAAC0.000.1533.3359.12-0.000.03
FloridaSEC0.000.1550.0070.050.000.06
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1550.0055.500.000.02
MissouriSEC0.000.1566.6754.700.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.150.0047.67-0.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1333.3335.79-0.00-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.000.13100.0041.420.00-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.13100.0057.050.000.02
DetroitHorz0.000.130.0049.82-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.130.0037.22-0.00-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.000.130.0056.37-0.000.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.13100.0028.530.00-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.120.0043.69-0.00-0.02
AmericanPat0.000.1250.0054.340.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.120.0038.80-0.00-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1250.0052.010.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.12100.0054.510.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.1250.0037.900.00-0.03
KentuckySEC0.000.12100.0087.640.000.09
Wake ForestACC0.000.1266.6746.880.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1250.0050.780.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.12100.0070.240.000.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.100.0016.45-0.00-0.07
SouthernSWAC0.000.100.0048.17-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.100.0063.32-0.000.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.10100.0068.450.000.04
LongwoodBSth0.000.090.0017.55-0.00-0.06
OaklandHorz0.000.090.0035.06-0.00-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.000.09100.0059.830.000.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0966.6740.290.00-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.090.0036.33-0.00-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.090.0028.19-0.00-0.04
NorthwesternB100.000.09100.0046.590.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0950.0050.350.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.09100.0072.850.000.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0950.0060.550.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.09100.0066.000.000.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.09100.0071.150.000.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0950.0055.280.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.090.0035.21-0.00-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0950.0046.600.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0950.0066.170.000.03
IonaMAAC0.000.0950.0058.340.000.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.09100.0057.900.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.090.0030.90-0.00-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.09100.0069.180.000.03
DrexelCAA0.000.090.0041.49-0.00-0.02
PennIvy0.000.090.0025.03-0.00-0.04
TempleAmer0.000.09100.0057.520.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.070.0039.48-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0733.3337.15-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.070.0023.33-0.00-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.070.0033.94-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.070.0039.95-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0750.0056.060.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.07100.0044.510.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.060.0031.35-0.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.06100.0058.210.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.0650.0044.900.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.06100.0061.100.000.01
LafayettePat0.000.0666.6763.540.000.02
LehighPat0.000.060.0039.33-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.06100.0063.170.000.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.060.0050.40-0.000.00
NavyPat0.000.060.0037.69-0.00-0.02
NJITind0.000.0633.3329.39-0.00-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0633.3337.80-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0029.13-0.00-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.000.060.0048.38-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0054.470.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0650.0043.320.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0056.240.000.01
IPFWSum0.000.06100.0064.670.000.02
UCFAmer0.000.06100.0046.050.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0034.89-0.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.060.0042.59-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.06100.0040.670.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.060.0066.93-0.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0650.0051.340.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0024.20-0.00-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.060.0033.32-0.00-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.060.0051.45-0.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.060.0053.86-0.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0650.0052.410.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.06100.0084.670.000.04
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0650.0035.500.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0650.0057.380.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.060.0066.63-0.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0060.100.000.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.060.0051.63-0.000.00
SMUAmer0.000.0650.0071.330.000.03
HofstraCAA0.000.0650.0061.660.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.060.0055.40-0.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0650.0044.540.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0333.3340.52-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.030.0027.00-0.00-0.02
KansasB120.000.0350.0062.370.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0071.660.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.03100.0053.420.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.03100.0055.760.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0028.57-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0366.6745.290.00-0.00
MichiganB100.000.03100.0070.350.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0350.0069.890.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.03100.0057.290.000.00
OklahomaB120.000.0350.0060.110.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0333.3351.13-0.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.030.0037.28-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.03100.0065.510.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.030.0015.45-0.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.03100.0055.300.000.00
BaylorB120.000.03100.0070.300.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0030.24-0.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0023.67-0.00-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0350.0054.380.000.00
DrakeMVC0.000.030.0029.37-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0086.240.000.02
HartfordAE0.000.0366.6741.760.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.03100.0062.480.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0078.370.000.02
MercerSC0.000.0350.0051.620.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0067.820.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.030.0050.94-0.000.00
New HampshireAE0.000.030.0036.73-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0028.09-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0044.59-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.030.0061.66-0.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.03100.0042.400.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.000.030.0032.28-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.03100.0066.300.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0350.0039.970.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.03100.0051.970.000.00
BradleyMVC0.000.030.0025.06-0.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0350.0037.260.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.03100.0063.190.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0350.0055.680.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0350.0044.410.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.030.0034.13-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.03100.0076.260.000.02
RutgersB100.000.0350.0034.720.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.03100.0055.080.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0024.10-0.00-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0350.0035.590.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.030.0035.56-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0350.0059.230.000.01
VMISC0.000.0350.0044.590.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.030.0034.77-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.030.0054.42-0.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0033.18-0.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0350.0071.270.000.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.03100.0055.560.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0066.070.000.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.030.0062.99-0.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0056.280.000.00
DenverSum0.000.03100.0065.200.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.030.0048.52-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0350.0035.160.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0088.090.000.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.030.0051.23-0.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.030.0043.78-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.000.030.0042.30-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.030.0046.40-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.000.03100.0064.960.000.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0054.080.000.00
TroySB0.000.030.0041.54-0.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.03100.0067.570.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.03100.0072.380.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.03100.0059.650.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.03100.0063.940.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0333.3326.69-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0366.6743.800.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.03100.0047.330.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.03100.0054.330.000.00
RadfordBSth0.000.030.0043.54-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0039.59-0.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0350.0042.910.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0350.0048.000.00-0.00