live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Bracket Busters - Blog


Through games of Mar 17, 2013.

Dayton

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:114.0
Current RPI:114
Expected SOS:95
Current SOS:95
Current Record:17-14
Expected Record:17-14
Current Conf Record:7-10
Expected Conf Record:7-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:10-4
Expected OOC Record:10-4
Expected OOC RPI:104
Expected OOC SOS:180


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-14114.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Dayton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Arkansas St. (163.0)SBH74-61W100%0.0
11-15Colorado (38.0)P12N67-57L0%0.0
11-16Boston College (113.0)ACCN71-87W100%0.0
11-18Auburn (252.0)SECN63-73W100%0.0
11-24Manhattan (183.0)MAACH66-58W100%0.0
11-28Weber St. (84.0)BSkyH61-62L0%0.0
12-1Northern Illinois (333.0)MACH60-43W100%0.0
12-5Alabama (60.0)SECA76-81W100%0.0
12-8Miami OH (258.0)MACH83-61W100%0.0
12-15Florida Atlantic (218.0)SBH81-56W100%0.0
12-19Illinois St. (117.0)MVCH73-74L0%0.0
12-22Murray St. (110.0)OVCH77-68W100%0.0
12-30Southern California (118.0)P12A63-61L0%0.0
1-5UAB (144.0)CUSAH78-71W100%0.0
1-9Virginia Commonwealth (24.0)A10A74-62L0%0.0
1-12Butler (22.0)A10H73-79L0%0.0
1-16La Salle (46.0)A10A72-70L0%0.0
1-23Fordham (228.0)A10H96-51W100%0.0
1-26Duquesne (229.0)A10H72-56W100%0.0
1-30Xavier (87.0)A10A66-61L0%0.0
2-2St. Louis (15.0)A10A81-52L0%0.0
2-6Saint Joseph's (82.0)A10H60-54W100%0.0
2-9Temple (42.0)A10H71-72L0%0.0
2-13Rhode Island (201.0)A10A75-72L0%0.0
2-16Xavier (87.0)A10H70-59W100%0.0
2-23Massachusetts (57.0)A10A76-66L0%0.0
2-27Charlotte (68.0)A10A67-88W100%0.0
3-2Richmond (92.0)A10H78-74W100%0.0
3-6St. Bonaventure (139.0)A10H75-63W100%0.0
3-9George Washington (147.0)A10A81-80L0%0.0
3-14Butler (22.0)A10N73-67L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Dayton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Dayton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Dayton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DaytonA1025.9025.9050.4050.400.210.21
ButlerA103.743.7474.1974.191.811.81
XavierA103.693.6955.1755.170.380.38
MassachusettsA102.182.1864.5264.520.630.63
St. LouisA102.172.1781.2581.251.361.36
Virginia CommonwealthA102.152.1575.7675.761.111.11
Saint Joseph'sA102.132.1360.0060.000.430.43
George WashingtonA102.102.1041.3841.38-0.36-0.36
CharlotteA102.102.1067.7467.740.750.75
La SalleA102.102.1068.9768.970.800.80
St. BonaventureA102.082.0850.0050.000.000.00
FordhamA102.082.0823.3323.33-1.11-1.11
TempleA102.082.0870.9770.970.870.87
RichmondA102.072.0758.0658.060.330.33
Rhode IslandA102.072.0725.0025.00-1.04-1.04
DuquesneA102.052.0527.5927.59-0.92-0.92
AuburnSEC1.741.7429.0329.03-0.73-0.73
Arkansas St.SB1.721.7262.0762.070.420.42
Murray St.OVC1.691.6967.8667.860.600.60
AlabamaSEC1.691.6964.5264.520.490.49
Florida AtlanticSB1.671.6743.3343.33-0.22-0.22
ColoradoP121.671.6764.5264.520.480.48
Miami OHMAC1.671.6727.5927.59-0.75-0.75
ManhattanMAAC1.671.6745.1645.16-0.16-0.16
Northern IllinoisMAC1.661.6614.2914.29-1.19-1.19
Boston CollegeACC1.641.6450.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC1.641.6453.1253.120.100.10
Southern CaliforniaP121.641.6441.9441.94-0.26-0.26
UABCUSA1.641.6448.3948.39-0.05-0.05
Weber St.BSky1.611.6179.3179.310.950.95
Kent St.MAC0.190.1959.3859.380.030.03
Western KentuckySB0.180.1855.8855.880.020.02
TroySB0.180.1836.3636.36-0.05-0.05
TennesseeSEC0.180.1862.5062.500.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.180.1848.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.160.1641.9441.94-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.160.1672.7372.730.070.07
BuffaloMAC0.160.1637.5037.50-0.04-0.04
IonaMAAC0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
SienaMAAC0.160.1625.0025.00-0.08-0.08
PennsylvaniaIvy0.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
EvansvilleMVC0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
Miami FLACC0.150.1581.8281.820.100.10
Western MichiganMAC0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.130.1336.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.130.1314.8114.81-0.09-0.09
Middle TennesseeSB0.130.1384.8584.850.090.09
South AlabamaSB0.130.1357.1457.140.020.02
Florida InternationalSB0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
North TexasSB0.130.1336.6736.67-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.1370.5970.590.050.05
WashingtonP120.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.130.1355.8855.880.020.02
HarvardIvy0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
MemphisCUSA0.130.1388.2488.240.100.10
Wake ForestACC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
Oregon St.P120.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.1128.0028.00-0.05-0.05
Central MichiganMAC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
James MadisonCAA0.110.1158.8258.820.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
CanisiusMAAC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Loyola MDMAAC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
VillanovaBE0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
DrexelCAA0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
Arizona St.P120.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
CaliforniaP120.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
East CarolinaCUSA0.100.1053.8553.850.010.01
StanfordP120.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
UtahP120.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
CreightonMVC0.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
ElonSC0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
KansasB120.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
Texas A&MSEC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
IllinoisB100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
DukeACC0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
Wichita St.MVC0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
ToledoMAC0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
AkronMAC0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
MontanaBSky0.080.0879.3179.310.050.05
North DakotaBSky0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
BelmontOVC0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
ProvidenceBE0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
LamarSlnd0.080.089.689.68-0.06-0.06
RiderMAAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
CincinnatiBE0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Old DominionCAA0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
LouisvilleBE0.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
BradleyMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
New Orleansind0.080.0818.1818.18-0.05-0.05
ArkansasSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
FloridaSEC0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
KentuckySEC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Louisiana St.SEC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
OregonP120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
UCLAP120.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Washington St.P120.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
IndianaB100.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
MissouriSEC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
MarquetteBE0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
NorthwesternB100.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0517.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Montana St.BSky0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
DePaulBE0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
George MasonCAA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Notre DameBE0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
PittsburghBE0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
GramblingSWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
HartfordAE0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
RutgersBE0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
PacificBW0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Utah St.WAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Texas St.WAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
DavidsonSC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
St. Peter'sMAAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
LehighPat0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
BaylorB120.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
College of CharlestonSC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
WyomingMWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0593.7593.750.040.04
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
IUPUISum0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
MarylandACC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.CAA0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
LipscombASun0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
SeattleWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
St. Mary'sWCC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Appalachian St.SC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Brigham YoungWCC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
BucknellPat0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Kansas St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
MaineAE0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
San Jose St.WAC0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyGWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
ConnecticutBE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
MonmouthNEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0359.2659.260.000.00
YaleIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
HoustonCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Long IslandNEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
MercerASun0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
NavyPat0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
NC AshevilleBSth0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
NC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
OaklandSum0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
SyracuseBE0.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
TexasB120.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Texas ChristianB120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Texas TechB120.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
BryantNEC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.020.0229.6329.63-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
South Carolina UpstateASun0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01