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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Dayton

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:30.0
Current RPI:30
Expected SOS:71
Current SOS:71
Current Record:23-7
Expected Record:23-7
Current Conf Record:15-4
Expected Conf Record:15-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:53
Expected OOC SOS:54



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-730.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Dayton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Austin Peay (261.0)OVCH96-68W100%0.0
11-15Alabama (78.0)SECA72-77W100%0.0
11-19Saint Mary's (17.0)WCCH57-61L0%0.0
11-24Nebraska (107.0)B10N80-78L0%0.0
11-25Portland (233.0)WCCN74-84W100%0.0
11-27New Mexico (86.0)MWCN64-57W100%0.0
12-3Winthrop (70.0)BSthH83-67W100%0.0
12-10East Tennessee St. (55.0)SCH75-61W100%0.0
12-17Northwestern (50.0)B10N67-64L0%0.0
12-21Vanderbilt (44.0)SECH68-63W100%0.0
12-23VMI (329.0)SCH92-56W100%0.0
12-30La Salle (133.0)A10H66-55W100%0.0
1-3St. Bonaventure (91.0)A10A74-90W100%0.0
1-6Rhode Island (31.0)A10H67-64W100%0.0
1-11Massachusetts (195.0)A10A67-55L0%0.0
1-14Duquesne (267.0)A10A57-76W100%0.0
1-19Richmond (80.0)A10H75-59W100%0.0
1-22Saint Louis (238.0)A10H67-46W100%0.0
1-27VCU (22.0)A10A73-68L0%0.0
1-31Fordham (215.0)A10A66-75W100%0.0
2-4Duquesne (267.0)A10H90-53W100%0.0
2-7Saint Joseph's (197.0)A10H77-70W100%0.0
2-10Rhode Island (31.0)A10A74-75W100%0.0
2-14Saint Louis (238.0)A10A63-85W100%0.0
2-18St. Bonaventure (91.0)A10H76-72W100%0.0
2-21George Mason (103.0)A10H83-70W100%0.0
2-24Davidson (93.0)A10A82-89W100%0.0
3-1VCU (22.0)A10H79-72W100%0.0
3-4George Washington (102.0)A10A87-81L0%0.0
3-10Davidson (93.0)A10N67-73L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Dayton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Dayton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Dayton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DaytonA1026.0926.0976.5276.5213.8413.84
Saint LouisA104.064.0638.7138.71-0.92-0.92
Rhode IslandA104.064.0677.4277.422.232.23
DavidsonA104.034.0353.3353.330.270.27
VCUA104.014.0178.1278.122.252.25
St. BonaventureA104.004.0066.6766.671.331.33
DuquesneA103.983.9833.3333.33-1.33-1.33
RichmondA102.412.4164.5264.520.700.70
George WashingtonA102.412.4156.2556.250.300.30
MassachusettsA102.392.3943.7543.75-0.30-0.30
George MasonA102.382.3861.2961.290.540.54
FordhamA102.372.3740.0040.00-0.47-0.47
La SalleA102.362.3651.7251.720.080.08
Saint Joseph'sA102.342.3436.6736.67-0.62-0.62
East Tennessee St.SC1.751.7580.6580.651.071.07
Saint Mary'sWCC1.751.7587.1087.101.301.30
PortlandWCC1.741.7430.0030.00-0.70-0.70
VMISC1.741.7414.8114.81-1.23-1.23
AlabamaSEC1.741.7459.3859.380.330.33
NorthwesternB101.721.7266.6766.670.570.57
WinthropBSth1.721.7282.7682.761.131.13
NebraskaB101.721.7234.4834.48-0.53-0.53
VanderbiltSEC1.691.6957.5857.580.260.26
Austin PeayOVC1.671.6733.3333.33-0.56-0.56
New MexicoMWC1.671.6756.6756.670.220.22
MercerSC0.240.2443.3343.33-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.220.2253.1253.120.010.01
Penn St.B100.180.1845.4545.45-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.180.1866.6766.670.060.06
PepperdineWCC0.160.1626.6726.67-0.07-0.07
IllinoisB100.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
KentuckySEC0.150.1585.2985.290.110.11
FloridaSEC0.150.1575.0075.000.080.08
WoffordSC0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
FurmanSC0.140.1463.3363.330.040.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.140.1432.1432.14-0.05-0.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.140.1470.9770.970.060.06
ChattanoogaSC0.140.1458.6258.620.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.130.1396.9796.970.120.12
PacificWCC0.130.1331.2531.25-0.05-0.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.130.1373.5373.530.060.06
RutgersB100.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.130.1325.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
LSUSEC0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
CampbellBSth0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
The CitadelSC0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1144.4444.44-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.1117.8617.86-0.07-0.07
IndianaB100.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
TempleAmer0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
ClemsonACC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
BelmontOVC0.100.1077.7877.780.060.06
LibertyBSth0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.1070.0070.000.040.04
CanisiusMAAC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
MississippiSEC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.090.0910.7110.71-0.07-0.07
RadfordBSth0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
PennIvy0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
High PointBSth0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
MichiganB100.080.0868.5768.570.030.03
Michigan St.B100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Ohio St.B100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
KansasB120.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
NevadaMWC0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
San Jose St.MWC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
BucknellPat0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
HarvardIvy0.080.0861.5461.540.020.02
SienaMAAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
MinnesotaB100.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
PurdueB100.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
WisconsinB100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
HoustonAmer0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.080.0878.5778.570.040.04
St. John'sBE0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.083.333.33-0.07-0.07
ProvidenceBE0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
AuburnSEC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.080.0810.3410.34-0.06-0.06
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
HowardMEAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0787.8887.880.060.06
Fort WayneSum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
UCLAP120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
VillanovaBE0.050.0591.1891.180.050.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.040.04
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
HartfordAE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
PittsburghACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
BrownIvy0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
DartmouthIvy0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.050.0577.1477.140.030.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
UCFAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
William & MaryCAA0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
BinghamtonAE0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
CreightonBE0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
LehighPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
ColoradoP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0329.4129.41-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
StanfordP120.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
OregonP120.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
BryantNEC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Iowa St.B120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
IUPUISum0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01