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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Dayton

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:111.9
Current RPI:97
Expected SOS:61
Current SOS:18
Current Record:9-10
Expected Record:15-15
Current Conf Record:3-4
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-2
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:104
Expected OOC SOS:6



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1048.70.09%
19-1159.71.18%
18-1269.65.61%
17-1382.114.42%
16-1497.423.67%
15-15115.725.01%
14-16134.718.07%
13-17154.28.69%
12-18172.22.73%
11-19189.10.46%
10-20203.60.05%
9-21214.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Dayton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Ball St. (115.8)MACH78-77W100%0.0
11-16Hofstra (105.8)CAAN72-69L0%0.0
11-17Ohio (173.1)MACN79-65W100%0.0
11-19Old Dominion (73.6)CUSAN67-75L0%0.0
11-25Akron (213.5)MACH73-60W100%0.0
11-29Auburn (17.9)SECH60-73L0%0.0
12-3Mississippi St. (110.7)SECA61-59L0%0.0
12-6Tennessee Tech (170.9)OVCH79-66W100%0.0
12-9Penn (172.9)IvyH70-78L0%0.0
12-16Georgia St. (136.3)SBH88-83W100%0.0
12-19Saint Mary's (34.6)WCCA69-54L0%0.0
12-23Wagner (142.7)NECH79-67W100%0.0
12-30Duquesne (212.1)A10A70-62L0%0.0
1-3St. Bonaventure (49.7)A10H82-72W100%0.0
1-6Massachusetts (199.1)A10H60-62L0%0.0
1-9Richmond (201.6)A10A81-87W100%0.0
1-12VCU (127.7)A10H106-79W100%0.0
1-17Saint Joseph's (150.4)A10A81-65L0%0.0
1-20Rhode Island (14.4)A10H74-88L0%0.0
1-23Davidson (81.5)A10H0-046%-1.1
1-27Saint Louis (176.5)A10A0-050%-0.1
2-3Massachusetts (199.1)A10A0-055%1.4
2-7Duquesne (212.1)A10H0-076%8.0
2-10VCU (127.7)A10A0-036%-3.9
2-14George Mason (224.7)A10A0-065%4.3
2-17Fordham (280.1)A10H0-088%13.3
2-20Saint Louis (176.5)A10H0-072%6.3
2-23Rhode Island (14.4)A10A0-014%-12.0
2-28La Salle (182.0)A10A0-047%-0.8
3-3George Washington (200.4)A10H0-079%9.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Dayton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Dayton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Dayton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DaytonA1026.3526.1139.7647.29-5.40-1.42
MassachusettsA102.923.9447.3745.03-0.15-0.39
DuquesneA102.703.9168.4257.840.990.61
VCUA102.913.9163.1661.610.770.91
Saint LouisA100.273.9147.3747.46-0.01-0.20
Rhode IslandA102.773.9182.3580.571.792.39
La SalleA100.422.3940.0042.34-0.08-0.37
St. BonaventureA102.842.3670.5971.101.170.99
RichmondA102.772.3533.3335.55-0.92-0.68
George MasonA100.352.3545.0041.52-0.03-0.40
DavidsonA100.222.3358.8261.720.040.55
George WashingtonA100.352.3345.0044.23-0.03-0.27
Saint Joseph'sA102.842.3347.0649.98-0.17-0.00
FordhamA100.352.3231.5829.66-0.13-0.95
AkronMAC2.631.8150.0046.510.00-0.13
Ball St.MAC2.711.7564.7160.720.800.38
OhioMAC2.701.7550.0050.140.000.00
AuburnSEC2.771.7588.8976.242.160.92
Old DominionCUSA2.771.7577.7875.951.540.91
PennIvy2.631.7262.5061.380.660.39
Georgia St.SB2.701.7270.5967.861.110.61
HofstraCAA2.701.6955.5658.050.300.27
Mississippi St.SEC2.701.6970.5957.501.110.25
Saint Mary'sWCC2.631.6790.0088.592.111.29
Tennessee TechOVC2.631.6761.1155.090.580.17
WagnerNEC2.631.6768.7567.050.990.57
ToledoMAC0.310.2366.6767.700.100.08
HarvardIvy0.200.2237.5046.69-0.05-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.150.1758.8249.760.03-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.220.1772.2274.930.100.09
Central MichiganMAC0.220.1762.5058.690.050.03
Kent St.MAC0.080.1744.4444.92-0.01-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.070.1747.0641.41-0.00-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.150.1752.9452.230.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.140.1770.0060.470.060.03
AlabamaSEC0.220.1768.4258.980.080.03
TempleAmer0.290.1652.6351.740.020.01
BucknellPat0.280.1661.9068.020.070.06
South CarolinaSEC0.070.1661.1151.910.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.200.1666.6755.940.070.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.140.1433.3335.21-0.05-0.04
Seton HallBE0.220.1475.0067.890.110.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.230.1441.1839.16-0.04-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.230.1452.9460.220.010.03
TowsonCAA0.220.1463.1665.970.060.04
Appalachian St.SB0.220.1433.3337.23-0.07-0.04
VirginiaACC0.140.1494.7486.140.120.10
Murray St.OVC0.140.1470.5975.950.060.07
James MadisonCAA0.210.1425.0028.24-0.10-0.06
CornellIvy0.210.1433.3333.23-0.07-0.05
Holy CrossPat0.140.1426.3230.49-0.07-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.280.1415.7920.91-0.19-0.08
MississippiSEC0.220.1452.6345.860.01-0.01
VMISC0.130.1425.0024.15-0.07-0.07
Robert MorrisNEC0.140.1257.1460.410.020.02
BrownIvy0.070.1150.0045.140.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.140.1166.6765.640.050.04
MissouriSEC0.080.1166.6763.200.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.230.1146.6746.97-0.02-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.140.1170.0068.220.060.04
MarshallCUSA0.220.1168.4263.650.080.03
VillanovaBE0.220.1194.7490.310.200.09
William & MaryCAA0.140.1164.7159.990.040.02
Indiana St.MVC0.290.1144.4446.02-0.03-0.01
MaineAE0.140.1110.5314.83-0.11-0.08
North FloridaASun0.210.1131.5835.15-0.08-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.1155.0052.470.010.01
BYUWCC0.130.1180.9576.240.080.06
San FranciscoWCC0.070.1150.0048.730.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.150.0942.1144.96-0.02-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0940.0042.52-0.02-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.140.0952.9459.250.010.02
FairfieldMAAC0.220.0938.8944.08-0.05-0.01
RiderMAAC0.150.0965.0065.320.040.03
ChattanoogaSC0.220.0922.2228.59-0.12-0.04
IonaMAAC0.150.0960.0064.110.030.02
NevadaMWC0.070.0985.7182.090.050.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0922.2227.330.00-0.04
DelawareCAA0.140.0947.3743.02-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.150.0922.2225.25-0.08-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.140.0963.1663.220.040.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.150.0926.3231.50-0.07-0.03
YaleIvy0.070.0941.1847.56-0.01-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.140.0833.3333.87-0.05-0.03
DrexelCAA0.070.0830.0030.99-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0866.6765.370.020.03
South AlabamaSB0.070.0850.0045.870.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.140.0852.6358.590.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0823.5325.64-0.04-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0842.1143.510.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.150.0868.4270.810.050.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.150.0810.0019.63-0.12-0.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.140.080.009.09-0.14-0.07
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.080.0010.67-0.14-0.06
SeattleWAC0.060.0857.8954.500.010.01
UABCUSA0.140.0861.1164.130.030.02
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0836.8435.57-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.140.0868.4264.200.050.02
NiagaraMAAC0.140.0857.1453.050.020.00
CaliforniaP120.130.0836.8431.12-0.03-0.03
WinthropBSth0.140.0850.0059.450.000.02
BryantNEC0.080.069.5217.12-0.06-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0652.3848.530.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0623.5332.57-0.04-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0630.0033.47-0.03-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.150.0610.5316.75-0.12-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0627.7831.11-0.03-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0644.4446.00-0.01-0.00
BelmontOVC0.070.0671.4374.660.030.03
ClemsonACC0.150.0684.2173.240.100.03
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0620.0032.25-0.05-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.0621.4326.350.00-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.0631.5832.72-0.05-0.02
ElonCAA0.070.0652.6351.080.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0657.8966.260.010.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.140.0616.6724.91-0.09-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.150.0627.7841.03-0.07-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.140.0623.5328.69-0.07-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.150.0621.0539.48-0.09-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0635.2940.48-0.02-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0657.8950.210.000.00
TroySB0.070.0635.2942.76-0.02-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0660.0062.030.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0683.3381.370.050.04
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0650.0050.860.000.00
MarylandB100.150.0670.0065.250.060.02
RiceCUSA0.140.0611.1117.68-0.11-0.04
SienaMAAC0.140.0628.5729.94-0.06-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.140.0636.8445.21-0.04-0.01
TCUB120.140.0673.6865.600.070.02
TulaneAmer0.070.0663.1657.890.020.01
HowardMEAC0.080.0610.5327.29-0.06-0.03
LafayettePat0.080.0622.2227.47-0.04-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0683.3384.240.040.04
ButlerBE0.000.0666.6763.070.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0647.0647.410.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.140.0689.4785.550.110.04
DetroitHorz0.000.0621.0525.970.00-0.03
FIUCUSA0.070.0635.2935.54-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0637.5037.68-0.02-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0678.9572.990.000.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.150.0638.8943.43-0.03-0.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0657.8950.840.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0641.1838.47-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.140.0675.0077.850.070.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.0668.4257.740.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0565.0054.670.020.01
FloridaSEC0.070.0573.6871.560.030.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0573.6869.640.000.02
KentuckySEC0.000.0573.6867.970.000.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0552.6355.290.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0561.1153.170.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0572.2274.710.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.140.0518.7536.82-0.09-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.140.0516.6724.45-0.09-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.070.0572.2268.930.030.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0568.4263.960.000.02
Washington St.P120.140.0547.3741.44-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.060.0580.9583.260.040.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0536.8444.11-0.02-0.01
LamarSlnd0.070.0550.0054.890.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0527.7829.10-0.03-0.02
MarquetteBE0.070.0568.4260.550.020.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0577.7870.480.000.02
MichiganB100.070.0576.1970.740.030.02
MinnesotaB100.070.0563.6457.630.020.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0529.4139.630.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0555.5656.740.010.01
PacificWCC0.130.0545.0044.47-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0561.9055.760.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.060.0510.5318.34-0.05-0.03
PittsburghACC0.070.0540.0030.87-0.01-0.02
PortlandWCC0.000.0527.7827.280.00-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0535.0031.83-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.060.0563.1657.540.020.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0533.3332.94-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.070.0533.3336.93-0.02-0.01
TexasB120.070.0563.1657.630.020.01
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0538.8935.37-0.01-0.02
AmericanPat0.080.0326.3228.11-0.04-0.01
HartfordAE0.080.0350.0045.930.00-0.00
NJITASun0.080.0338.8942.61-0.02-0.00
ArmyPat0.070.0361.1160.440.020.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0325.0031.450.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0320.0023.34-0.05-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.070.0327.7838.14-0.03-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.039.5217.90-0.06-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0329.4133.930.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0338.8946.05-0.02-0.00
Fort WayneSum0.080.0352.6351.690.000.00
FurmanSC0.070.0366.6768.540.020.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0368.7563.990.000.01
IndianaB100.070.0357.8950.710.010.00
LibertyBSth0.070.0350.0054.190.000.00
LipscombASun0.070.0352.9459.340.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0326.6729.040.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.070.0370.5973.150.030.01
NavyPat0.080.0360.0055.160.020.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0325.0028.01-0.03-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.070.0345.0048.56-0.01-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0380.0075.060.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0336.8432.760.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.080.0321.0524.75-0.04-0.01
USCP120.080.0371.4368.280.030.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0316.6724.26-0.05-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0361.9063.140.020.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0377.7879.150.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.070.0368.4254.070.030.00
Green BayHorz0.070.0325.0027.94-0.04-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0342.1146.00-0.01-0.00
IUPUIHorz0.070.0327.7829.83-0.03-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0344.4450.31-0.010.00
North TexasCUSA0.070.0344.4446.65-0.01-0.00
Notre DameACC0.070.0363.1661.020.020.01
OklahomaB120.070.0377.7867.910.040.01
OregonP120.070.0365.0063.850.020.01
RutgersB100.000.0355.0046.690.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.070.0347.3742.16-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0380.0078.850.040.02
SyracuseACC0.070.0368.4261.230.030.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0333.3334.100.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0341.1839.650.00-0.01
ValparaisoMVC0.070.0347.3748.77-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.070.0342.1140.46-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0384.2178.170.000.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.0342.1139.940.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0356.2556.830.010.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0317.6519.300.00-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0352.6347.390.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0366.6763.420.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0338.8940.78-0.02-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0320.0041.730.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0373.6862.720.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0378.9569.790.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0344.4454.860.000.00
New HampshireAE0.000.0333.3340.080.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0343.7554.110.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0355.0050.330.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0342.1146.090.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0311.7612.81-0.05-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.060.0330.0039.93-0.03-0.01
XavierBE0.000.0385.7180.080.000.02