live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Nov 27, 2014.


Davidson

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:66.9
Current RPI:71
Expected SOS:88
Current SOS:92
Current Record:2-1
Expected Record:18-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:2-1
Expected OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC RPI:70
Expected OOC SOS:140



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-26.00.02%
25-39.80.06%
24-414.00.21%
23-517.51.16%
22-623.63.19%
21-730.46.85%
20-839.912.33%
19-950.716.03%
18-1063.218.50%
17-1176.917.05%
16-1291.511.91%
15-13107.06.95%
14-14123.13.63%
13-15141.31.40%
12-16159.50.54%
11-17177.30.12%
10-18188.80.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Davidson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-18Campbell (274.5)BSthH86-51W100%0.0
11-22North Carolina (10.0)ACCN90-72L0%0.0
11-26UCF (222.6)AmerA69-95W100%0.0
11-29UNC Wilmington (170.3)CAAH0-088%14.1
12-3Charlotte (75.4)CUSAH0-067%5.2
12-6Stetson (313.8)ASunH0-097%21.9
12-10Montana (171.2)BSkyA0-069%5.8
12-13Niagara (272.3)MAACH0-095%19.9
12-20College of Charleston (141.9)CAAA0-060%3.0
12-30Virginia (16.7)ACCA0-017%-11.6
1-3Richmond (63.1)A10H0-061%3.5
1-7VCU (24.0)A10A0-026%-7.6
1-10Saint Louis (170.8)A10H0-084%11.9
1-14Massachusetts (42.5)A10A0-036%-4.2
1-17Richmond (63.1)A10A0-038%-3.7
1-20Dayton (57.3)A10H0-058%2.4
1-24George Mason (224.1)A10A0-078%9.2
1-31Saint Joseph's (205.7)A10A0-074%7.8
2-4St. Bonaventure (146.3)A10H0-079%9.8
2-7Duquesne (145.2)A10H0-079%9.8
2-11George Mason (224.1)A10H0-091%16.4
2-14La Salle (99.2)A10A0-053%0.9
2-18George Washington (69.9)A10A0-034%-5.0
2-21Fordham (261.1)A10H0-093%17.4
2-25Rhode Island (116.9)A10A0-052%0.6
2-28George Washington (69.9)A10H0-057%2.2
3-5VCU (24.0)A10H0-049%-0.4
3-7Duquesne (145.2)A10A0-059%2.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Davidson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Davidson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Davidson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DavidsonA1032.2226.1666.6764.8110.747.75
George WashingtonA100.004.3675.0070.340.001.77
VCUA100.004.3080.0074.130.002.08
George MasonA100.004.2920.0022.67-0.00-2.35
RichmondA100.004.2750.0064.900.001.27
DuquesneA100.004.21100.0055.750.000.48
Saint LouisA100.002.5575.0047.960.00-0.10
St. BonaventureA100.002.5475.0053.200.000.16
DaytonA100.002.4975.0072.310.001.11
La SalleA100.002.49100.0057.250.000.36
MassachusettsA100.002.4683.3366.930.000.83
Saint Joseph'sA100.002.4650.0036.950.00-0.64
FordhamA100.002.450.0026.93-0.00-1.13
Rhode IslandA100.002.4566.6756.770.000.33
College of CharlestonCAA0.001.9740.0053.99-0.000.16
VirginiaACC0.001.96100.0072.970.000.90
CharlotteCUSA0.001.8860.0068.520.000.69
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.001.8866.6748.400.00-0.06
CampbellBSth16.671.850.0037.29-16.67-0.47
UCFAmer16.671.82100.0043.3316.67-0.24
StetsonASun2.781.820.0030.61-2.78-0.70
NiagaraMAAC0.001.8233.3331.15-0.00-0.68
North CarolinaACC16.671.8275.0073.208.330.84
MontanaBSky0.001.7933.3352.10-0.000.07
Old DominionCUSA0.000.2780.0074.880.000.13
James MadisonCAA0.000.2480.0046.880.00-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.2175.0055.000.000.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.2180.0067.100.000.07
Penn St.B100.000.1983.3348.340.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.1960.0057.910.000.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1814.2930.86-0.00-0.07
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1825.0049.08-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.1820.0036.57-0.00-0.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.18100.0064.840.000.05
Northern IowaMVC0.000.18100.0077.870.000.10
Florida St.ACC0.000.1540.0038.97-0.00-0.03
HowardMEAC0.000.1525.0045.04-0.00-0.02
SienaMAAC0.000.1533.3361.73-0.000.04
LouisvilleACC0.000.15100.0078.390.000.09
DelawareCAA0.000.150.0019.53-0.00-0.09
IonaMAAC0.000.1580.0079.440.000.09
HofstraCAA0.000.1560.0068.830.000.06
TowsonCAA0.000.1580.0057.880.000.02
ElonCAA0.000.1540.0039.26-0.00-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.1566.6751.440.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.1575.0044.850.00-0.02
Miami FLACC0.000.15100.0078.880.000.08
UMass LowellAE0.000.1360.0041.750.00-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1325.0035.86-0.00-0.04
OhioMAC0.000.1266.6752.280.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.1260.0050.480.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.12100.0062.000.000.03
High PointBSth0.000.1275.0056.960.000.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1250.0052.810.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1240.0038.03-0.00-0.03
VillanovaBE0.000.12100.0075.980.000.06
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.100.0051.90-0.000.00
USC UpstateASun2.780.1075.0057.261.390.01
LibertyBSth0.000.1020.0029.36-0.00-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0980.0072.320.000.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0950.0032.470.00-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.090.0039.39-0.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC1.670.0933.3347.83-0.56-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0920.0022.33-0.00-0.05
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0950.0052.540.000.00
VMISC0.000.0925.0035.97-0.00-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0940.0058.41-0.000.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0925.0053.73-0.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.090.0036.81-0.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.000.0920.0034.06-0.00-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0950.0056.120.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0920.0040.88-0.00-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0960.0035.980.00-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0975.0069.780.000.04
West VirginiaB120.000.09100.0068.860.000.03
DukeACC0.000.09100.0083.320.000.06
PennIvy0.000.090.0023.53-0.00-0.05
RadfordBSth0.000.0925.0046.52-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0983.3369.110.000.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0925.0049.53-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0940.0045.07-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0725.0039.20-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0760.0059.160.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0780.0074.820.000.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.070.0019.02-0.00-0.04
IdahoBSky0.000.0733.3348.86-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.070.0023.57-0.00-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.070.0025.17-0.00-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0733.3329.78-0.00-0.03
LipscombASun0.000.070.0043.66-0.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.070.0020.51-0.00-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.000.0733.3351.25-0.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0740.0051.36-0.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0725.0039.34-0.00-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0725.0052.78-0.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0620.0031.24-0.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0650.0051.380.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.060.0030.50-0.00-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0666.6753.030.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0633.3363.17-0.000.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0666.6760.700.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0633.3360.46-0.000.01
NJITind0.000.0620.0030.12-0.00-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.0023.49-0.00-0.03
SMUAmer0.000.0650.0065.590.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0675.0055.470.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0625.0045.71-0.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0666.6739.850.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0633.3353.65-0.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0065.930.000.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0666.6751.730.000.00
MarylandB100.000.06100.0071.310.000.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.060.0033.42-0.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0056.410.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0633.3337.71-0.00-0.02
ColgatePat2.780.0620.0039.05-1.67-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0620.0031.46-0.00-0.02
Ohio St.B102.780.06100.0074.592.780.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.060.0028.00-0.00-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.0675.0064.570.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.0642.8641.73-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.0666.6725.500.00-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0640.0032.81-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0020.98-0.00-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.000.0660.0056.430.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0680.0070.540.000.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.0620.0037.69-0.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0640.0043.47-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0650.0024.450.00-0.03
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0063.120.000.02
UMBCAE0.000.060.0027.48-0.00-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.0650.0048.990.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0660.0050.620.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0680.0067.950.000.02
VermontAE0.000.0650.0064.890.000.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0666.6773.130.000.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0028.59-0.00-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0675.0068.660.000.02
UABCUSA0.000.0620.0037.96-0.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0680.0075.550.000.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0666.6758.150.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0650.0064.460.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.0640.0030.22-0.00-0.02
LSUSEC0.000.0660.0056.260.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0650.0045.460.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0675.0039.180.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.0660.0063.290.000.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.0666.6754.980.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0625.0028.63-0.00-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0040.20-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0666.6746.480.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0640.0060.45-0.000.01
BrownIvy0.000.0316.6730.56-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0375.0062.620.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0375.0052.330.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.0380.0063.470.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0380.0070.550.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0069.610.000.01
IPFWSum0.000.0366.6762.480.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0320.0034.53-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0350.0070.920.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0047.410.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0320.0050.32-0.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.03100.0057.180.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0350.0045.170.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0350.0059.430.000.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0325.0045.33-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.000.030.0038.79-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0016.54-0.00-0.02
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0069.490.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0350.0055.020.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0325.0033.76-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3335.99-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0320.0035.95-0.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0360.0055.660.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0350.0063.340.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0036.05-0.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.030.0023.09-0.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0036.65-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0380.0051.710.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0360.0040.420.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0320.0043.38-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0045.140.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0325.0047.85-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0333.3354.85-0.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0340.0047.94-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0025.08-0.00-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0333.3352.29-0.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0053.730.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.03100.0083.180.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0032.17-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0366.6759.540.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0079.690.000.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0325.0053.47-0.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.03100.0059.990.000.01
ButlerBE1.670.0380.0071.411.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0350.0060.380.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0052.530.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0333.3338.66-0.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0088.610.000.02
IowaB100.000.0366.6765.220.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0089.470.000.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.030.0044.60-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.0340.0031.76-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0340.0026.71-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0053.040.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.670.030.0067.79-1.670.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.030.0052.73-0.000.00
UCLAP121.670.0366.6758.390.560.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0350.0028.400.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.0350.0067.630.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0325.0027.48-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0380.0063.370.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0380.0072.400.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0366.6750.170.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0350.0052.250.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.030.0028.25-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0069.210.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0333.3330.52-0.00-0.01