live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Davidson

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:126.0
Current RPI:126
Expected SOS:202
Current SOS:202
Current Record:19-12
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:16-2
Expected Conf Record:16-2
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-3
Current OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC RPI:159
Expected OOC SOS:19



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-12126.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Davidson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Duke (9.0)ACCA111-77L0%0.0
11-11Milwaukee (131.0)HorzH77-81L0%0.0
11-16Virginia (8.0)ACCN57-70L0%0.0
11-21Georgia (74.0)SECN94-82W100%0.0
11-22Clemson (79.0)ACCN85-54L0%0.0
11-24New Mexico (12.0)MWCN58-79L0%0.0
11-30Stetson (333.0)ASunA80-86W100%0.0
12-4Charlotte (151.0)CUSAA78-87W100%0.0
12-11Niagara (302.0)MAACN83-72L0%0.0
12-15Drexel (132.0)CAAH58-72L0%0.0
12-21North Carolina (25.0)ACCA97-85L0%0.0
12-29Wichita St. (4.0)MVCA81-70L0%0.0
1-1College of Charleston (242.0)CAAH64-76L0%0.0
1-4Wofford (153.0)SCA63-78W100%0.0
1-9Furman (339.0)SCA56-73W100%0.0
1-11Appalachian St. (335.0)SCH78-66W100%0.0
1-16Elon (162.0)SCH85-87L0%0.0
1-18UNC Greensboro (301.0)SCA82-93W100%0.0
1-23Western Carolina (221.0)SCA77-82W100%0.0
1-25Georgia Southern (303.0)SCH82-52W100%0.0
1-30Chattanooga (243.0)SCH94-51W100%0.0
2-1The Citadel (345.0)SCH62-43W100%0.0
2-6Samford (313.0)SCA88-109W100%0.0
2-8Furman (339.0)SCH65-50W100%0.0
2-15Georgia Southern (303.0)SCA73-88W100%0.0
2-17The Citadel (345.0)SCA76-83W100%0.0
2-22Wofford (153.0)SCH59-49W100%0.0
2-27UNC Greensboro (301.0)SCH79-46W100%0.0
3-1Elon (162.0)SCA69-86W100%0.0
3-8Samford (313.0)SCN77-54W100%0.0
3-9Western Carolina (221.0)SCN97-99L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Davidson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Davidson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Davidson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DavidsonSC26.2626.2661.9661.966.286.28
Western CarolinaSC4.114.1151.7251.720.140.14
WoffordSC4.104.1062.9662.961.061.06
Georgia SouthernSC4.104.1041.3841.38-0.71-0.71
The CitadelSC4.064.0614.8114.81-2.85-2.85
ElonSC4.044.0455.5655.560.450.45
FurmanSC4.014.0128.0028.00-1.77-1.77
UNC GreensboroSC3.993.9940.7440.74-0.74-0.74
SamfordSC3.983.9835.7135.71-1.14-1.14
Appalachian St.SC2.492.4920.0020.00-1.49-1.49
ChattanoogaSC2.472.4753.5753.570.180.18
DukeACC1.821.8275.7675.760.940.94
College of CharlestonCAA1.811.8140.0040.00-0.36-0.36
ClemsonACC1.801.8061.2961.290.410.41
GeorgiaSEC1.781.7861.2961.290.400.40
North CarolinaACC1.761.7670.9770.970.740.74
CharlotteCUSA1.731.7356.6756.670.230.23
DrexelCAA1.721.7251.7251.720.060.06
VirginiaACC1.711.7181.8281.821.091.09
StetsonASun1.691.6923.3323.33-0.90-0.90
NiagaraMAAC1.661.6618.7518.75-1.04-1.04
MilwaukeeHorz1.611.6159.3859.380.300.30
New MexicoMWC1.611.6181.2581.251.011.01
Wichita St.MVC1.611.61100.00100.001.611.61
PresbyterianBSth0.310.3113.3313.33-0.23-0.23
Virginia TechACC0.290.2929.0329.03-0.12-0.12
Wake ForestACC0.280.2851.5251.520.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.230.2361.7661.760.050.05
Georgia TechACC0.220.2248.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.210.2161.2961.290.050.05
James MadisonCAA0.210.2135.4835.48-0.06-0.06
Florida St.ACC0.200.2059.3859.380.040.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.190.1962.5062.500.050.05
NortheasternCAA0.180.1834.3834.38-0.06-0.06
UABCUSA0.180.1855.1755.170.020.02
Miami FLACC0.180.1851.5251.520.010.01
Notre DameACC0.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.170.1773.5373.530.080.08
High PointBSth0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
TowsonCAA0.160.1667.7467.740.060.06
MaristMAAC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
VMIBSth0.140.1455.5655.560.020.02
LibertyBSth0.140.1427.5927.59-0.06-0.06
CampbellBSth0.140.1432.1432.14-0.05-0.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.130.1313.7913.79-0.10-0.10
East Tennessee St.ASun0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
TennesseeSEC0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.130.1363.3363.330.030.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
MarylandACC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
SyracuseACC0.120.1284.3884.380.080.08
Georgia St.SB0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
DelawareCAA0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
HofstraCAA0.110.1130.3030.30-0.04-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaCUSA0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.110.1175.0075.000.050.05
Northern KentuckyASun0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
IonaMAAC0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.100.1087.1087.100.070.07
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Green BayHorz0.100.1077.7877.780.050.05
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
WinthropBSth0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
RadfordBSth0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
RutgersAmer0.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
ColoradoP120.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
NebraskaB100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Saint LouisA100.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
San DiegoWCC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
VCUA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
UCLAP120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
MarquetteBE0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Western KentuckySB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
LipscombASun0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
NevadaMWC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSlnd0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
KentuckySEC0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0841.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
BradleyMVC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
CaliforniaP120.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
FordhamA100.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
ArmyPat0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0683.8783.870.040.04
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0534.6234.62-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0593.1093.100.050.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0546.1546.15-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MercerASun0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
North FloridaASun0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
TulsaCUSA0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UICHorz0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
DuquesneA100.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
IUPUISum0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
TexasB120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
BrownIvy0.020.0251.8551.850.000.00
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
SMUAmer0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
VermontAE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01