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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Davidson

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:93.0
Current RPI:93
Expected SOS:74
Current SOS:74
Current Record:17-15
Expected Record:17-15
Current Conf Record:10-11
Expected Conf Record:10-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:107
Expected OOC SOS:145



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-1593.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Davidson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Appalachian St. (301.0)SBH86-74W100%0.0
11-17Clemson (69.0)ACCN78-95L0%0.0
11-18Missouri (257.0)SECN55-70W100%0.0
11-20Arizona St. (125.0)P12N60-68W100%0.0
11-26Charlotte (240.0)CUSAH79-57W100%0.0
11-29Mercer (192.0)SCA57-78W100%0.0
12-4College of Charleston (64.0)CAAA76-61L0%0.0
12-7North Carolina (5.0)ACCA83-74L0%0.0
12-17Kansas (4.0)B12N89-71L0%0.0
12-21Jacksonville (291.0)ASunH75-60W100%0.0
12-28Hartford (327.0)AEH105-75W100%0.0
12-31Richmond (80.0)A10H80-82L0%0.0
1-5George Washington (102.0)A10A73-69L0%0.0
1-8Saint Louis (238.0)A10A66-77W100%0.0
1-11Fordham (215.0)A10H54-60L0%0.0
1-14VCU (22.0)A10H69-63W100%0.0
1-19La Salle (133.0)A10A91-83L0%0.0
1-24Duquesne (267.0)A10H74-60W100%0.0
1-28Fordham (215.0)A10A66-84W100%0.0
1-31Saint Joseph's (197.0)A10A60-75W100%0.0
2-3Rhode Island (31.0)A10H59-70L0%0.0
2-8George Mason (103.0)A10H69-76L0%0.0
2-11VCU (22.0)A10A74-60L0%0.0
2-15George Washington (102.0)A10H74-63W100%0.0
2-18Massachusetts (195.0)A10A74-79W100%0.0
2-21Richmond (80.0)A10A84-76L0%0.0
2-24Dayton (30.0)A10H82-89L0%0.0
2-28St. Bonaventure (91.0)A10H68-63W100%0.0
3-4Rhode Island (31.0)A10A73-70L0%0.0
3-9La Salle (133.0)A10N73-82W100%0.0
3-10Dayton (30.0)A10N67-73W100%0.0
3-11Rhode Island (31.0)A10N84-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Davidson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Davidson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Davidson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DavidsonA1026.2326.2352.6752.671.401.40
Rhode IslandA105.355.3570.0070.002.142.14
VCUA103.913.9178.1278.122.202.20
RichmondA103.853.8560.0060.000.770.77
George WashingtonA103.813.8158.0658.060.610.61
La SalleA103.813.8150.0050.000.000.00
DaytonA103.783.7878.5778.572.162.16
FordhamA103.763.7637.9337.93-0.91-0.91
George MasonA102.362.3658.0658.060.380.38
Saint LouisA102.302.3037.5037.50-0.58-0.58
MassachusettsA102.302.3046.8846.88-0.14-0.14
Saint Joseph'sA102.302.3036.6736.67-0.61-0.61
St. BonaventureA102.302.3064.5264.520.670.67
DuquesneA102.272.2732.2632.26-0.81-0.81
MercerSC1.661.6644.8344.83-0.17-0.17
Appalachian St.SB1.611.6125.9325.93-0.78-0.78
ClemsonACC1.611.6151.6151.610.050.05
CharlotteCUSA1.591.5942.8642.86-0.23-0.23
HartfordAE1.591.5929.0329.03-0.67-0.67
North CarolinaACC1.591.5978.1278.120.890.89
Arizona St.P121.561.5646.8846.88-0.10-0.10
College of CharlestonCAA1.561.5671.8871.880.680.68
JacksonvilleASun1.561.5648.1548.15-0.06-0.06
KansasB121.561.5687.1087.101.161.16
MissouriSEC1.561.5625.8125.81-0.76-0.76
DukeACC0.240.2477.1477.140.130.13
Old DominionCUSA0.220.2261.2961.290.050.05
James MadisonCAA0.200.2028.1228.12-0.09-0.09
East Tennessee St.SC0.180.1878.1278.120.100.10
Wake ForestACC0.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
VMISC0.150.1514.2914.29-0.11-0.11
North Carolina St.ACC0.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.150.1525.8125.81-0.07-0.07
AlabamaSEC0.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
TempleAmer0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
LipscombASun0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
UABCUSA0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
MississippiSEC0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
UMBCAE0.120.1257.1457.140.020.02
HarvardIvy0.120.1261.5461.540.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.120.1228.1228.12-0.05-0.05
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
KentuckySEC0.120.1285.2985.290.090.09
Florida St.ACC0.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.120.1284.3884.380.080.08
Miami FLACC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.1176.6776.670.060.06
USC UpstateASun0.110.1146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.06-0.06
FloridaSEC0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
PennIvy0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.100.1091.1891.180.080.08
BucknellPat0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
NebraskaB100.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
AuburnSEC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
MaristMAAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
RiderMAAC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
Texas TechB120.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
St. John'sBE0.100.1042.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.100.1025.9325.93-0.05-0.05
HoustonAmer0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
StanfordP120.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
BaylorB120.090.0977.4277.420.050.05
BinghamtonAE0.090.0931.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Holy CrossPat0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
UCFAmer0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
LSUSEC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
North FloridaASun0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Little RockSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.080.0821.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
SamfordSC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
WinthropBSth0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.083.333.33-0.07-0.07
RutgersB100.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
AlbanyAE0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
OklahomaB120.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0787.8887.880.060.06
Kansas St.B120.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
ArizonaP120.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
HofstraCAA0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
VirginiaACC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.070.0778.5778.570.040.04
BelmontOVC0.070.0777.7877.780.040.04
BrownIvy0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
IllinoisB100.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
NJITASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
TroySB0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
MaineAE0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
VermontAE0.050.0584.8584.850.030.03
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
NavyPat0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
USCP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
WashingtonP120.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0329.4129.41-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
LafayettePat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.026.906.90-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0236.0036.00-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
UMKCWAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
CreightonBE0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
PacificWCC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
WagnerNEC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
WisconsinB100.020.0273.5373.530.010.01