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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Davidson

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:48.3
Current RPI:23
Expected SOS:84
Current SOS:53
Current Record:5-1
Expected Record:20-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:5-1
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:40
Expected OOC SOS:92



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-310.80.12%
25-414.70.65%
24-518.72.52%
23-623.16.45%
22-729.112.57%
21-836.317.33%
20-944.820.40%
19-1055.617.35%
18-1167.211.81%
17-1280.56.70%
16-1395.92.76%
15-14108.01.00%
14-15125.40.28%
13-16144.80.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Davidson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Appalachian St. (238.2)SBH86-74W100%0.0
11-17Clemson (68.2)ACCN78-95L0%0.0
11-18Missouri (167.3)SECN55-70W100%0.0
11-20Arizona St. (165.8)P12N60-68W100%0.0
11-26Charlotte (177.2)CUSAH79-57W100%0.0
11-29Mercer (163.6)SCA57-78W100%0.0
12-4College of Charleston (141.6)CAAA0-070%6.2
12-7North Carolina (5.9)ACCA0-09%-15.9
12-17Kansas (7.5)B12N0-017%-11.3
12-21Jacksonville (208.9)ASunH0-092%16.5
12-28Hartford (335.7)AEH0-099%26.2
12-31Richmond (173.8)A10H0-083%11.3
1-5George Washington (176.1)A10A0-070%6.2
1-8Saint Louis (278.6)A10A0-088%14.1
1-11Fordham (205.9)A10H0-088%13.9
1-14VCU (31.1)A10H0-052%0.7
1-19La Salle (107.7)A10A0-061%3.2
1-24Duquesne (255.5)A10H0-093%17.4
1-28Fordham (205.9)A10A0-074%7.7
1-31Saint Joseph's (121.4)A10A0-062%3.8
2-3Rhode Island (33.6)A10H0-056%1.8
2-8George Mason (200.3)A10H0-090%15.3
2-11VCU (31.1)A10A0-032%-5.5
2-15George Washington (176.1)A10H0-085%12.4
2-18Massachusetts (108.4)A10A0-061%3.4
2-21Richmond (173.8)A10A0-067%5.1
2-24Dayton (36.4)A10H0-052%0.7
2-28St. Bonaventure (61.9)A10H0-062%3.8
3-4Rhode Island (33.6)A10A0-036%-4.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Davidson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Davidson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Davidson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DavidsonA1029.2126.1282.1469.6618.7810.27
RichmondA100.004.1057.1450.260.000.02
VCUA100.004.0885.7179.570.002.41
George WashingtonA100.004.0857.1445.640.00-0.36
FordhamA100.004.0557.1445.430.00-0.37
Rhode IslandA100.004.0271.4371.480.001.73
George MasonA100.002.4657.1444.070.00-0.29
La SalleA100.002.4460.0052.220.000.11
Saint Joseph'sA100.002.4150.0047.090.00-0.14
DuquesneA100.002.4137.5035.56-0.00-0.70
DaytonA100.002.4066.6773.320.001.12
MassachusettsA100.002.3883.3358.710.000.42
Saint LouisA100.002.3533.3327.24-0.00-1.07
St. BonaventureA100.002.3566.6771.890.001.03
MercerSC8.331.8160.0054.941.670.18
Appalachian St.SB9.031.7825.0037.38-4.51-0.45
ClemsonACC8.331.7860.0051.861.670.07
CharlotteCUSA9.171.7680.0052.985.500.10
HartfordAE0.831.7612.5023.25-0.62-0.94
North CarolinaACC0.001.7585.7179.650.001.04
Arizona St.P128.331.7266.6737.252.78-0.44
College of CharlestonCAA0.001.7262.5057.400.000.26
JacksonvilleASun0.001.7257.1461.440.000.39
KansasB120.001.7285.7175.950.000.89
MissouriSEC8.331.7260.0047.511.67-0.09
Old DominionCUSA0.000.2366.6765.810.000.07
James MadisonCAA0.690.210.0028.15-0.69-0.09
Wake ForestACC0.000.2071.4352.370.000.01
DukeACC0.830.2087.5078.680.620.12
LipscombASun0.000.1514.2933.07-0.00-0.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1583.3380.700.000.09
VMISC0.000.150.0021.15-0.00-0.08
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1571.4350.570.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.1466.6756.020.000.02
DrexelCAA0.000.1442.8636.82-0.00-0.04
TempleAmer0.000.1471.4363.570.000.04
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1450.0027.250.00-0.06
Florida St.ACC0.000.1485.7162.410.000.03
HarvardIvy0.000.140.0043.04-0.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.690.1466.6754.380.230.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.1466.6739.720.00-0.03
UMBCAE0.000.1480.0055.340.000.02
KentuckySEC0.600.14100.0086.250.600.10
USC UpstateASun0.690.1233.3338.20-0.23-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1228.5730.29-0.00-0.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1257.1464.940.000.04
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1216.6718.96-0.00-0.07
FloridaSEC0.690.1287.5075.320.520.06
The CitadelSC0.600.1240.0027.05-0.12-0.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1183.3377.170.000.06
William & MaryCAA0.000.1140.0055.44-0.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.1157.1461.940.000.03
MississippiSEC0.000.1171.4346.010.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.1140.0037.65-0.00-0.03
LSUSEC0.000.1171.4349.770.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.000.1150.0047.990.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.1128.5733.92-0.00-0.04
Texas TechB120.000.1185.7163.780.000.03
Penn St.B100.000.1162.5043.960.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.1185.7155.550.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.1171.4365.740.000.04
SienaMAAC0.000.1128.5750.51-0.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.1183.3374.620.000.06
BaylorB120.000.11100.0074.460.000.05
BinghamtonAE0.000.1142.8640.94-0.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.110.0038.26-0.00-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0950.0071.330.000.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.690.0950.0045.410.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0928.5739.44-0.00-0.02
Little RockSB0.000.0960.0057.900.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0960.0067.410.000.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0942.8634.17-0.00-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.090.0034.18-0.00-0.03
MaristMAAC0.000.0942.8635.68-0.00-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.0940.0030.80-0.00-0.03
East CarolinaAmer1.390.0975.0047.510.69-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.830.0925.0034.47-0.42-0.03
ElonCAA0.690.0983.3358.030.460.01
MarylandB100.000.0985.7156.490.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0920.0032.60-0.00-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.090.0024.32-0.00-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0966.6769.810.000.03
SamfordSC0.000.0957.1455.810.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0983.3355.200.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.0975.0067.660.000.03
DelawareCAA0.000.0940.0040.65-0.00-0.02
PennIvy0.000.0940.0057.97-0.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.09100.0083.120.000.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0985.7173.010.000.04
NebraskaB100.690.0950.0043.610.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0957.1440.550.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0983.3376.370.000.05
TowsonCAA0.000.0950.0054.490.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.090.0023.47-0.00-0.05
Holy CrossPat0.000.0942.8647.69-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0971.4356.280.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0925.0039.28-0.00-0.02
RutgersB100.000.0983.3344.770.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0942.8638.05-0.00-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0985.7162.920.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.600.0840.0057.49-0.120.01
TulaneAmer1.290.0814.2926.81-0.92-0.04
ArizonaP120.000.0885.7170.990.000.04
IllinoisB100.000.0857.1442.660.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.690.0883.3351.920.460.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0825.0063.95-0.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.08100.0082.550.000.05
Kansas St.B120.000.0885.7155.890.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0883.3356.560.000.01
StanfordP120.000.0875.0059.100.000.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0825.0040.81-0.00-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0850.0064.840.000.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0685.7168.390.000.02
NJITASun0.000.0642.8650.32-0.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0614.2931.71-0.00-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.0683.3361.150.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.0628.5728.26-0.00-0.03
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0043.310.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0616.6733.69-0.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0683.3359.600.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0685.7169.010.000.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.77-0.00-0.03
FurmanSC0.000.0620.0049.38-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0666.6758.420.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.060.0033.58-0.00-0.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0628.5723.76-0.00-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0657.1448.860.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.690.0633.3336.31-0.23-0.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0660.0070.500.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0683.3362.840.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0640.0061.37-0.000.01
BrownIvy0.000.0650.0042.420.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0685.7180.960.000.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0620.0034.22-0.00-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0633.3338.19-0.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0657.1448.240.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0019.30-0.00-0.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0660.0052.760.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.06100.0080.780.000.04
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0666.6766.100.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0685.7174.430.000.03
XavierBE1.390.06100.0074.801.390.03
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0633.3341.52-0.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0650.0043.490.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0685.7175.950.000.03
NavyPat0.000.0628.5743.62-0.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0616.6727.03-0.00-0.03
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0075.010.000.03
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0640.0043.86-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0666.6770.140.000.02
AlbanyAE0.000.0650.0060.380.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0024.25-0.00-0.03
CaliforniaP120.000.0683.3363.610.000.02
IndianaB100.000.0683.3375.060.000.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0671.4368.970.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0640.0050.71-0.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.060.0039.35-0.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.0616.6725.61-0.00-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0034.23-0.00-0.02
New HampshireAE0.000.0650.0057.480.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0666.6732.240.00-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0616.6733.82-0.00-0.02
TCUB120.000.06100.0059.480.000.01
TexasB120.000.0650.0036.240.00-0.02
UCLAP120.000.06100.0083.550.000.04
UNLVMWC0.000.0671.4349.590.00-0.00
USCP120.000.06100.0075.380.000.03
VermontAE0.000.0662.5071.630.000.02
WashingtonP120.000.0657.1452.630.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.0650.0036.820.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0683.3380.550.000.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0042.710.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0316.6731.91-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0333.3341.11-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0342.8646.78-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0023.46-0.00-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0366.6761.340.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0333.3333.15-0.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.0333.3332.23-0.00-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0342.8637.60-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0320.0034.39-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0340.0067.95-0.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0333.3323.33-0.00-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0325.0043.26-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0328.5728.46-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.690.0383.3369.840.460.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0340.0041.65-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0350.0047.560.00-0.00
LehighPat0.000.0333.3367.01-0.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0371.4358.670.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0371.4366.220.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0360.0057.170.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0089.040.000.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0357.1467.020.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.690.030.0013.30-0.69-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.0333.3345.58-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.0350.0058.980.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0350.0029.280.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0340.0050.91-0.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0366.6756.360.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0342.8642.47-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0018.22-0.00-0.02
High PointBSth0.690.0350.0051.260.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0066.170.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0350.0051.820.000.00
LafayettePat0.000.0333.3331.87-0.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0325.0024.66-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0366.6754.420.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0350.0033.010.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0371.4343.020.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0312.5048.98-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.690.0366.6775.370.230.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.690.030.0034.01-0.69-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0350.0035.230.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0316.6732.62-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0342.8650.36-0.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0350.0052.330.000.00
BYUWCC0.000.0371.4368.660.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.600.0333.3335.92-0.20-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0314.2929.15-0.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0017.30-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0316.6730.27-0.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.0320.0041.31-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.000.0371.4359.850.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0076.650.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0350.0050.940.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.030.0042.55-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0383.3357.990.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.0333.3340.49-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0371.4371.570.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0371.4368.100.000.01
OregonP120.000.0371.4366.730.000.01
PacificWCC0.000.0350.0049.010.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.600.0325.0040.37-0.30-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0371.4374.450.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0316.6734.31-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0375.0074.990.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0357.1440.590.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0350.0046.670.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0023.26-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.320.000.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0371.4356.050.000.00
UtahP120.000.0375.0061.040.000.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0333.3353.85-0.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0371.4386.030.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.0375.0073.840.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.0333.3364.14-0.000.01