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Through games of Feb 12, 2016.


Davidson

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:71.5
Current RPI:54
Expected SOS:53
Current SOS:49
Current Record:13-8
Expected Record:16-12
Current Conf Record:6-5
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC RPI:38
Expected OOC SOS:43



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-824.10.38%
19-932.93.31%
18-1046.713.38%
17-1161.626.74%
16-1274.729.14%
15-1389.218.78%
14-14106.67.06%
13-15124.91.20%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Davidson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14UCF (197.1)AmerH90-85W100%0.0
11-21College of Charleston (103.2)CAAH82-81W100%0.0
11-23Mercer (139.1)SCH77-71W100%0.0
12-1Charlotte (232.8)CUSAA74-109W100%0.0
12-6North Carolina (10.8)ACCA98-65L0%0.0
12-9Eastern Washington (202.2)BSkyH96-86W100%0.0
12-12Western Carolina (223.5)SCH87-54W100%0.0
12-20Pittsburgh (45.6)ACCN69-94L0%0.0
12-23Morehead St. (153.3)OVCH81-77W100%0.0
12-28California (35.8)P12A86-60L0%0.0
1-2St. Bonaventure (45.5)A10A97-85L0%0.0
1-6Duquesne (112.9)A10H77-66W100%0.0
1-9George Mason (192.1)A10H81-75W100%0.0
1-12Dayton (11.9)A10A80-74L0%0.0
1-16Massachusetts (182.3)A10H86-74W100%0.0
1-20Saint Louis (209.1)A10A96-87L0%0.0
1-25Richmond (104.8)A10A70-78W100%0.0
1-29VCU (46.5)A10H69-79L0%0.0
2-3George Washington (55.7)A10A79-69L0%0.0
2-6Duquesne (112.9)A10A82-93W100%0.0
2-10La Salle (259.2)A10H79-66W100%0.0
2-13George Mason (192.1)A10A0-064%4.0
2-16Richmond (104.8)A10H0-054%1.1
2-20Saint Joseph's (27.5)A10H0-041%-2.5
2-23Rhode Island (104.2)A10H0-050%0.1
2-27Fordham (194.4)A10A0-053%0.8
3-2VCU (46.5)A10A0-017%-10.4
3-5George Washington (55.7)A10H0-049%-0.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Davidson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Davidson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Davidson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DavidsonA1026.1926.1362.9657.316.793.82
George WashingtonA102.844.3173.9171.751.361.88
George MasonA102.844.2834.7834.71-0.86-1.31
RichmondA102.794.2859.0958.170.510.70
VCUA102.854.2569.5769.621.121.67
DuquesneA105.284.2266.6760.291.760.87
Saint LouisA103.002.5631.8230.06-1.09-1.02
MassachusettsA102.802.4745.4543.88-0.25-0.30
DaytonA102.962.4786.9683.172.191.64
FordhamA100.412.4752.3850.820.020.04
St. BonaventureA102.792.4771.4369.331.200.95
Saint Joseph'sA100.362.4483.3382.010.241.56
Rhode IslandA100.472.4456.0055.950.060.29
La SalleA102.742.4420.0021.05-1.64-1.41
Western CarolinaSC2.641.9733.3335.82-0.88-0.56
PittsburghACC2.641.9771.4366.451.130.65
MercerSC2.481.9169.5769.510.970.74
Morehead St.OVC2.541.8854.5555.490.230.21
UCFAmer2.481.8752.3846.230.12-0.14
Eastern WashingtonBSky2.491.8557.1457.600.360.28
CaliforniaP122.431.8565.2263.600.740.50
College of CharlestonCAA2.441.8263.6461.090.660.40
North CarolinaACC2.381.8282.6177.671.551.01
CharlotteCUSA2.381.7939.1343.73-0.52-0.22
Old DominionCUSA0.200.2358.3363.160.030.06
Georgia TechACC0.260.2154.1751.980.020.01
VirginiaACC0.200.2083.3378.460.140.12
The CitadelSC0.250.1930.4329.49-0.10-0.08
UNC GreensboroSC0.260.1826.0928.41-0.13-0.08
FurmanSC0.200.1856.0054.430.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.200.1872.0071.330.090.08
SyracuseACC0.210.1868.0064.070.070.05
CincinnatiAmer0.210.1872.0071.570.090.08
East Tennessee St.SC0.160.1660.8760.240.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.260.1683.3383.710.170.10
WoffordSC0.200.1545.8348.12-0.02-0.01
TowsonCAA0.210.1562.5057.720.050.02
Miami FLACC0.210.1582.6177.600.140.08
East CarolinaAmer0.260.1541.6739.50-0.04-0.03
TempleAmer0.160.1565.2262.360.050.04
DukeACC0.050.1575.0071.810.020.06
Northern IowaMVC0.150.1556.0055.450.020.02
HofstraCAA0.160.1366.6766.780.050.04
SamfordSC0.150.1340.0041.68-0.03-0.02
VMISC0.160.1319.0519.67-0.10-0.08
DrexelCAA0.160.1213.0416.41-0.12-0.08
South Carolina St.MEAC0.210.1252.1754.140.010.01
TulaneAmer0.150.1236.0034.84-0.04-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.150.1229.1726.68-0.06-0.06
LouisvilleACC0.160.1279.1776.000.090.06
South FloridaAmer0.160.1220.0019.72-0.09-0.07
Virginia TechACC0.100.1252.0048.910.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.100.1241.6739.90-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.110.1236.8437.30-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.100.1254.1754.420.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.150.1266.6763.330.050.03
LongwoodBSth0.100.1221.7424.59-0.06-0.06
North FloridaASun0.150.1262.5064.110.040.03
Penn St.B100.150.1250.0046.760.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.150.1245.4546.07-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.150.0968.1867.120.060.03
ElonCAA0.100.0950.0050.080.000.00
SeattleWAC0.160.0945.4543.98-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.100.0950.0051.150.000.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0970.8367.980.000.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.0931.8236.13-0.04-0.03
StetsonASun0.110.0922.7327.37-0.06-0.04
ColgatePat0.050.0943.4844.88-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.110.0920.8321.68-0.06-0.05
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0945.4543.17-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.160.0958.3358.410.030.02
New OrleansSlnd0.160.0926.3232.42-0.07-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.150.0925.0028.14-0.07-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.0950.0048.970.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0966.6766.320.020.03
MississippiSEC0.100.0962.5058.940.030.02
AmericanPat0.050.0929.1731.18-0.02-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.0968.1867.730.040.03
RiceCUSA0.100.0927.2728.15-0.05-0.04
BelmontOVC0.050.0768.0066.640.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.0750.0049.320.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0724.0024.16-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0768.1865.190.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0765.2264.330.020.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0625.0024.91-0.03-0.03
IdahoBSky0.050.0656.5255.330.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.110.0645.0048.15-0.01-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0648.0048.59-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.110.069.5212.09-0.09-0.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0627.2726.46-0.02-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.050.0630.0035.92-0.02-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0640.0045.19-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.110.0614.2914.92-0.08-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0677.2773.930.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.0616.6719.49-0.07-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.0613.0415.26-0.07-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.0650.0050.500.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0656.0054.080.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.100.0630.0031.76-0.04-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.0650.0052.880.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0650.0051.280.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0670.8370.130.020.02
DetroitHorz0.110.0645.4543.88-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0658.3359.310.010.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0666.6764.730.020.02
CampbellBSth0.100.0631.8232.07-0.04-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0614.2920.63-0.04-0.04
RiderMAAC0.060.0638.4641.36-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.060.0687.5086.850.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.100.0650.0052.940.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.0623.8129.52-0.06-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.100.0634.7832.89-0.03-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.0626.0927.89-0.05-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0629.1733.75-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0623.0823.85-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.100.0670.8367.910.040.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.0660.8762.470.020.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.0620.0022.24-0.06-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.100.0658.3360.910.020.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0623.8125.48-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.0626.9228.60-0.05-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.100.0652.1751.840.000.00
Texas TechB120.050.0660.8755.310.010.01
UMBCAE0.100.0623.0825.89-0.06-0.03
West VirginiaB120.050.0679.1778.100.030.03
Kansas St.B120.100.0658.3356.290.020.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0672.0069.130.020.02
ArizonaP120.050.0680.0078.730.030.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0656.0053.630.010.00
ArmyPat0.050.0654.1754.290.000.00
ColoradoP120.100.0670.8365.570.040.02
DePaulBE0.050.0633.3334.02-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0643.4845.20-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0634.7836.54-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.050.0687.5083.680.040.04
North TexasCUSA0.000.0631.8232.47-0.00-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0645.8342.30-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.100.0679.1777.220.060.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0663.6458.770.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.069.0917.13-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.050.0652.1754.090.000.00
RutgersB100.050.0621.7420.33-0.03-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0643.4844.24-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0670.8368.090.020.02
StanfordP120.100.0647.6244.07-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0650.0048.120.00-0.00
UCLAP120.050.0654.1752.980.000.00
UtahP120.100.0670.8368.530.040.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0660.8762.520.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0662.5060.140.010.01
WisconsinB100.050.0662.5056.990.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0654.1753.810.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0340.0042.85-0.01-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0339.1341.06-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0356.5257.690.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0380.0075.690.030.02
Murray St.OVC0.050.0347.8350.90-0.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0331.8235.12-0.02-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0312.5013.26-0.00-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0357.1457.670.010.00
DenverSum0.050.0352.0049.300.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0352.1753.740.000.00
High PointBSth0.050.0357.1459.870.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0347.6248.05-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.050.0345.8344.06-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.050.0362.5059.070.010.01
MaineAE0.000.0332.0031.17-0.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0343.4843.76-0.01-0.00
MontanaBSky0.050.0360.0062.700.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0343.4844.81-0.01-0.00
NavyPat0.050.0364.0064.470.010.01
PacificWCC0.050.0323.8125.99-0.03-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0352.1749.150.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0386.9680.430.040.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0344.0043.56-0.01-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0325.0023.43-0.00-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0362.5063.450.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0368.1871.340.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0366.6769.760.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0328.5733.29-0.02-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0340.0040.34-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0339.1335.44-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0324.0026.42-0.03-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0342.3144.49-0.01-0.00
CornellIvy0.050.0340.0039.00-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.039.5210.67-0.04-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0325.0026.38-0.02-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0365.2260.710.020.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0333.3335.19-0.02-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0365.2263.630.020.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0360.0055.570.010.00
PurdueB100.050.0380.0077.900.030.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0365.3864.920.020.01
SMUAmer0.050.0386.9682.930.040.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0369.5770.020.020.01
VermontAE0.050.0352.0054.840.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0331.8232.68-0.02-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0360.8755.980.010.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0336.8442.87-0.01-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0356.0056.500.010.00
CreightonBE0.050.0364.0062.070.010.01
HartfordAE0.050.0324.0024.55-0.03-0.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0338.1039.12-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0336.3638.95-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0350.0049.490.00-0.00
IowaB100.050.0379.1778.890.030.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0380.7781.890.030.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0373.0872.610.020.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0340.0043.49-0.01-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0358.3359.970.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0373.9176.700.020.02
XavierBE0.050.0387.5081.840.040.02
BrownIvy0.000.0330.0030.54-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0321.7422.78-0.00-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0368.1865.570.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0354.1754.100.000.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0339.1342.98-0.01-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0356.0052.860.010.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0341.6739.59-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0355.5652.480.010.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0360.8760.730.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0372.7370.510.020.01
MichiganB100.050.0370.8366.750.020.01
NebraskaB100.000.0352.0050.770.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0329.1733.08-0.02-0.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0364.0062.090.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0373.6875.880.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0381.8281.780.030.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0345.0049.16-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0369.5770.090.020.01
TCUB120.000.0345.8339.36-0.00-0.01
TexasB120.050.0366.6762.200.020.01
UABCUSA0.050.0383.3379.820.030.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0345.4551.69-0.000.00
USCP120.000.0375.0071.140.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0354.1754.210.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0313.0412.96-0.00-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0382.6183.030.000.02
Washington St.P120.000.0334.7831.64-0.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0343.4842.54-0.01-0.00