Davidson

Conference:	SC
Expected RPI:	64.0
Current RPI:	67
Expected SOS:	162
Current SOS:	166
Current Record:	16-5
Expected Record:	21-7
Current Conf Record:	11-1
Expected Conf Record:	16-2
Probability of Auto Bid:	59.03%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	14-1
Current OOC Record:	5-4
Expected OOC Record:	5-5
Expected OOC RPI:	56
Expected OOC SOS:	4

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
23-5	44.9	12.98%
22-6	57.5	38.76%
21-7	69.7	34.43%
20-8	83.6	11.64%
19-9	97.7	2.05%
18-10	111.5	0.13%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Davidson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-14	Richmond (135.3)	A10	H	74-61	W	100%	0.0
11-18	Duke (4.2)	ACC	A	82-69	L	0%	0.0
11-21	Presbyterian (253.5)	BSth	H	68-54	W	100%	0.0
11-26	NC Wilmington (207.8)	CAA	A	67-70	W	100%	0.0
12-1	Wofford (173.4)	SC	A	69-72	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Furman (230.9)	SC	H	86-65	W	100%	0.0
12-7	Vanderbilt (31.5)	SEC	H	83-87	L	0%	0.0
12-10	Charlotte (140.3)	A10	A	84-61	L	0%	0.0
12-19	Kansas (8.8)	B12	N	74-80	W	100%	0.0
12-22	Massachusetts (76.4)	A10	A	73-65	L	0%	0.0
12-29	Pennsylvania (113.9)	Ivy	H	75-70	W	100%	0.0
1-5	NC Greensboro (256.3)	SC	A	63-92	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Georgia Southern (228.1)	SC	H	96-74	W	100%	0.0
1-12	Western Carolina (259.9)	SC	H	88-67	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Appalachian St. (249.5)	SC	A	79-83	W	100%	0.0
1-19	College of Charleston (128.5)	SC	H	87-69	W	100%	0.0
1-21	The Citadel (331.4)	SC	H	80-51	W	100%	0.0
1-26	Chattanooga (285.8)	SC	A	63-64	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Samford (254.7)	SC	A	77-74	L	0%	0.0
2-1	Furman (230.9)	SC	A	53-71	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Chattanooga (285.8)	SC	H	88-61	W	100%	0.0
2-6	Wofford (173.4)	SC	H	0-0		86%	11.8
2-9	The Citadel (331.4)	SC	A	0-0		96%	18.5
2-11	College of Charleston (128.5)	SC	A	0-0		60%	2.7
2-15	Samford (254.7)	SC	H	0-0		95%	18.3
2-18	Wichita St. (17.4)	MVC	H	0-0		36%	-4.1
2-23	Elon (223.5)	SC	H	0-0		95%	17.9
2-25	Georgia Southern (228.1)	SC	A	0-0		82%	10.2

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Davidson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Davidson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Davidson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Davidson	SC	26.36	26.33	79.57	78.71	15.59	15.12
Furman	SC	5.36	4.47	52.63	52.73	0.28	0.24
Georgia Southern	SC	3.10	4.47	42.11	44.01	-0.49	-0.53
College of Charleston	SC	3.16	4.45	60.87	62.83	0.69	1.14
Wofford	SC	3.09	4.41	61.90	61.70	0.74	1.03
The Citadel	SC	2.99	4.40	10.00	12.18	-2.39	-3.33
Chattanooga	SC	5.26	4.35	30.00	37.71	-2.10	-1.07
Samford	SC	2.99	4.35	30.00	33.89	-1.20	-1.40
NC Greensboro	SC	3.15	2.74	36.36	34.66	-0.86	-0.84
Western Carolina	SC	3.15	2.72	36.36	38.57	-0.86	-0.62
Elon	SC	0.77	2.71	50.00	49.22	0.00	-0.04
Appalachian St.	SC	3.03	2.68	36.84	40.80	-0.80	-0.49
Massachusetts	A10	2.53	1.94	72.73	67.50	1.15	0.68
Presbyterian	BSth	2.60	1.91	42.86	45.27	-0.37	-0.18
Richmond	A10	2.54	1.91	52.17	50.10	0.11	0.00
Duke	ACC	2.59	1.91	85.71	82.53	1.85	1.24
Charlotte	A10	2.48	1.87	47.62	47.64	-0.12	-0.09
NC Wilmington	CAA	2.49	1.85	40.91	37.39	-0.45	-0.47
Kansas	B12	2.44	1.81	81.82	81.00	1.55	1.13
Pennsylvania	Ivy	2.44	1.81	57.14	58.73	0.35	0.32
Vanderbilt	SEC	2.38	1.79	68.18	64.73	0.87	0.53
Wichita St.	MVC	0.00	1.79	82.61	80.99	0.00	1.11
Tennessee	SEC	0.37	0.31	45.45	44.66	-0.03	-0.03
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.21	0.28	55.00	60.33	0.02	0.06
Wake Forest	ACC	0.27	0.25	47.83	43.66	-0.01	-0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.27	0.22	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.22	0.22	95.83	92.57	0.20	0.18
South Carolina	SEC	0.21	0.21	40.91	39.56	-0.04	-0.04
Georgia St.	CAA	0.22	0.20	66.67	69.69	0.07	0.08
Mercer	ASun	0.28	0.20	70.83	71.64	0.12	0.08
Jacksonville	ASun	0.22	0.19	17.39	22.00	-0.15	-0.11
High Point	BSth	0.22	0.19	31.82	32.75	-0.08	-0.07
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.21	0.19	72.22	71.97	0.10	0.08
Georgia	SEC	0.22	0.19	45.45	41.20	-0.02	-0.03
Temple	A10	0.21	0.18	77.27	75.06	0.12	0.09
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.21	0.18	62.50	62.49	0.05	0.04
Columbia	Ivy	0.17	0.16	55.00	54.80	0.02	0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.16	0.15	59.09	50.82	0.03	0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.11	0.15	24.00	24.86	-0.06	-0.08
Miami FL	ACC	0.22	0.15	65.00	60.02	0.07	0.03
George Washington	A10	0.16	0.15	34.78	32.08	-0.05	-0.05
Xavier	A10	0.11	0.15	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.04
La Salle	A10	0.16	0.15	70.83	68.82	0.07	0.06
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.11	0.13	45.00	44.15	-0.01	-0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.22	0.13	56.00	55.65	0.03	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.16	0.13	40.00	40.18	-0.03	-0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.22	0.12	44.44	41.71	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.12	86.96	83.16	0.04	0.08
Liberty	BSth	0.16	0.12	27.27	27.21	-0.07	-0.06
NC Asheville	BSth	0.16	0.12	68.18	67.64	0.06	0.04
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.10	0.12	70.83	64.42	0.04	0.04
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.15	0.12	80.00	78.06	0.09	0.07
George Mason	CAA	0.10	0.12	76.00	72.50	0.05	0.05
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.12	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.03
Towson	CAA	0.21	0.12	4.00	5.26	-0.19	-0.11
Rhode Island	A10	0.10	0.12	20.83	20.60	-0.06	-0.07
Florida St.	ACC	0.16	0.12	72.73	71.71	0.07	0.05
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.11	0.10	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Army	Pat	0.11	0.10	40.91	41.72	-0.02	-0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.11	0.10	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
South Florida	BE	0.11	0.10	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.17	0.10	52.38	52.86	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.10	34.78	34.61	-0.02	-0.03
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.11	0.10	34.78	38.77	-0.03	-0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.16	0.09	8.70	11.67	-0.13	-0.07
Radford	BSth	0.11	0.09	8.70	13.10	-0.09	-0.07
Longwood	ind	0.16	0.09	30.00	27.84	-0.06	-0.04
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.09	62.50	62.06	0.01	0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.09	62.50	61.50	0.01	0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.00	0.09	14.29	17.17	-0.00	-0.06
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.09	47.37	52.87	-0.00	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.11	0.09	47.83	50.65	-0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.09	56.52	54.22	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.10	0.09	60.00	58.29	0.02	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.15	0.09	12.50	13.44	-0.11	-0.07
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.09	71.43	69.05	0.02	0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.10	0.09	59.09	56.35	0.02	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.16	0.09	40.91	34.50	-0.03	-0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.09	60.00	59.06	0.01	0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.11	0.09	77.27	77.67	0.06	0.05
Iowa St.	B12	0.16	0.09	73.91	68.43	0.07	0.03
Louisville	BE	0.10	0.09	78.26	72.66	0.06	0.04
UCLA	P12	0.16	0.09	54.55	56.79	0.01	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.06	0.07	52.38	52.87	0.00	0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.06	0.07	38.10	37.86	-0.01	-0.02
Valparaiso	Horz	0.06	0.07	65.22	63.61	0.02	0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.11	0.07	19.05	21.29	-0.07	-0.04
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.07	26.32	29.79	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.06	0.07	76.19	75.94	0.03	0.03
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.06	0.07	57.14	60.75	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.11	0.07	34.78	34.48	-0.03	-0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.07	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Denver	SB	0.06	0.07	70.83	72.23	0.02	0.03
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.06	9.52	13.19	-0.04	-0.05
Butler	Horz	0.11	0.06	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.11	0.06	75.00	75.78	0.05	0.03
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.11	0.06	52.38	57.86	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.11	0.06	54.55	57.69	0.01	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.00	0.06	87.50	85.41	0.00	0.04
Drake	MVC	0.00	0.06	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.00	0.06	45.45	44.02	-0.00	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.06	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.06	34.78	35.20	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.00	0.06	54.17	57.20	0.00	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.06	35.00	40.78	-0.02	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.00	0.06	34.78	32.06	-0.00	-0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.06	61.90	58.59	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.06	75.00	73.97	0.03	0.03
Northeastern	CAA	0.10	0.06	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.06	68.18	69.10	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.11	0.06	69.57	65.15	0.04	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.10	0.06	80.95	77.38	0.06	0.03
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.06	68.00	69.07	0.02	0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.10	0.06	83.33	84.76	0.07	0.04
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.06	71.43	66.60	0.02	0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.06	40.91	42.05	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.06	45.45	46.99	-0.00	-0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.06	30.43	26.44	-0.02	-0.03
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.06	90.91	83.85	0.04	0.04
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.06	27.27	23.80	-0.02	-0.03
Bucknell	Pat	0.10	0.06	73.91	75.00	0.05	0.03
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.06	36.84	41.45	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.06	82.61	77.63	0.03	0.03
Harvard	Ivy	0.00	0.06	90.48	87.91	0.00	0.04
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.06	72.73	68.28	0.02	0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.11	0.06	43.48	42.95	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.06	91.30	87.18	0.04	0.04
Ohio St.	B10	0.11	0.06	86.96	85.46	0.08	0.04
Oklahoma	B12	0.10	0.06	59.09	54.70	0.02	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.00	0.06	45.45	40.70	-0.00	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.06	60.87	61.37	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.06	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.06	31.82	25.98	-0.02	-0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.06	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.06	72.22	63.19	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.06	0.03	69.57	61.31	0.02	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.00	0.03	85.71	78.05	0.00	0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.03	60.87	59.76	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.47	0.02	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.00	0.03	34.78	38.42	-0.00	-0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.00	0.03	65.00	66.70	0.00	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	28.57	34.20	-0.02	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.00	0.03	4.76	9.95	-0.00	-0.02
Colorado	P12	0.00	0.03	66.67	62.65	0.00	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	42.11	49.81	-0.01	-0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.03	79.17	78.10	0.03	0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.03	19.05	22.37	-0.03	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.03	61.90	67.23	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.03	59.09	59.72	0.01	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.03	69.57	71.51	0.02	0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.00	0.03	82.61	81.44	0.00	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.03	33.33	37.25	-0.02	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.03	38.89	43.93	-0.01	-0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.03	30.00	31.54	-0.02	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.03	65.22	60.58	0.02	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.03	38.10	40.81	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.00	0.03	60.87	59.05	0.00	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.00	0.03	40.91	39.82	-0.00	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.00	0.03	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	41.67	40.61	-0.01	-0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	45.70	-0.00	-0.00
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.03	33.33	38.38	-0.02	-0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	57.15	0.01	0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.03	45.45	45.55	-0.00	-0.00
Utah	P12	0.05	0.03	18.18	15.01	-0.03	-0.02
American	Pat	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.79	0.02	0.01
Belmont	ASun	0.05	0.03	69.57	73.28	0.02	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	81.82	80.43	0.03	0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.03	66.67	60.80	0.02	0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.03	36.36	39.72	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	39.13	42.12	-0.01	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.03	36.36	38.48	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.03	18.18	22.22	-0.03	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.03	72.73	64.43	0.02	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.03	79.17	80.10	0.03	0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.05	0.03	71.43	73.35	0.02	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.00	0.03	59.09	57.28	0.00	0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.03	34.78	33.43	-0.02	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.03	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.05	0.03	13.64	16.35	-0.04	-0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.03	30.00	34.15	-0.02	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.03	72.73	66.81	0.02	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.03	76.19	72.91	0.03	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.00	0.03	63.64	56.71	0.00	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	78.26	72.34	0.03	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.05	0.03	28.00	28.91	-0.02	-0.01
North Dakota	GWC	0.05	0.03	33.33	41.31	-0.02	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	64.53	0.02	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.03	63.64	63.16	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.03	60.87	58.16	0.01	0.00
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.03	37.50	38.52	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.03	68.00	70.03	0.02	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.03	44.00	45.89	-0.01	-0.00
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.03	25.00	25.13	-0.03	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.03	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.03	45.45	46.08	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.03	81.82	76.80	0.03	0.02
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.03	82.61	84.57	0.04	0.02
Washington	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	66.54	0.02	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	40.91	42.96	-0.01	-0.00