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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Davidson

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:64.0
Current RPI:64
Expected SOS:58
Current SOS:58
Current Record:19-12
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:12-9
Expected Conf Record:12-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-2
Current OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC RPI:43
Expected OOC SOS:44



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1264.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Davidson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14UCF (219.0)AmerH90-85W100%0.0
11-21College of Charleston (135.0)CAAH82-81W100%0.0
11-23Mercer (194.0)SCH77-71W100%0.0
12-1Charlotte (234.0)CUSAA74-109W100%0.0
12-6North Carolina (5.0)ACCA98-65L0%0.0
12-9Eastern Washington (233.0)BSkyH96-86W100%0.0
12-12Western Carolina (166.0)SCH87-54W100%0.0
12-20Pittsburgh (53.0)ACCN69-94L0%0.0
12-23Morehead St. (127.0)OVCH81-77W100%0.0
12-28California (16.0)P12A86-60L0%0.0
1-2St. Bonaventure (30.0)A10A97-85L0%0.0
1-6Duquesne (162.0)A10H77-66W100%0.0
1-9George Mason (201.0)A10H81-75W100%0.0
1-12Dayton (21.0)A10A80-74L0%0.0
1-16Massachusetts (171.0)A10H86-74W100%0.0
1-20Saint Louis (206.0)A10A96-87L0%0.0
1-25Richmond (121.0)A10A70-78W100%0.0
1-29VCU (37.0)A10H69-79L0%0.0
2-3George Washington (68.0)A10A79-69L0%0.0
2-6Duquesne (162.0)A10A82-93W100%0.0
2-10La Salle (232.0)A10H79-66W100%0.0
2-13George Mason (201.0)A10A60-59L0%0.0
2-16Richmond (121.0)A10H83-79W100%0.0
2-20Saint Joseph's (22.0)A10H99-93W100%0.0
2-23Rhode Island (119.0)A10H65-54W100%0.0
2-27Fordham (176.0)A10A91-82L0%0.0
3-2VCU (37.0)A10A70-60L0%0.0
3-5George Washington (68.0)A10H87-80W100%0.0
3-10La Salle (232.0)A10N78-63W100%0.0
3-11St. Bonaventure (30.0)A10N86-90W100%0.0
3-12VCU (37.0)A10N76-54L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Davidson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Davidson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Davidson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DavidsonA1026.2426.2462.3962.396.506.50
VCUA105.525.5267.7467.741.961.96
George WashingtonA104.014.0170.9770.971.681.68
RichmondA103.983.9853.3353.330.270.27
George MasonA103.953.9533.3333.33-1.32-1.32
DuquesneA103.943.9451.7251.720.140.14
La SalleA103.883.8828.5728.57-1.66-1.66
St. BonaventureA103.863.8675.0075.001.931.93
Saint LouisA102.502.5032.2632.26-0.89-0.89
Saint Joseph'sA102.452.4581.8281.821.561.56
MassachusettsA102.432.4345.1645.16-0.23-0.23
DaytonA102.402.4077.4277.421.321.32
FordhamA102.352.3553.5753.570.170.17
Rhode IslandA102.302.3054.8454.840.220.22
PittsburghACC1.791.7963.3363.330.480.48
Western CarolinaSC1.771.7744.8344.83-0.18-0.18
MercerSC1.721.7256.6756.670.230.23
Morehead St.OVC1.691.6960.7160.710.360.36
UCFAmer1.691.6941.3841.38-0.29-0.29
Eastern WashingtonBSky1.671.6751.7251.720.060.06
North CarolinaACC1.661.6681.8281.821.061.06
CaliforniaP121.661.6668.7568.750.620.62
College of CharlestonCAA1.641.6455.1755.170.170.17
CharlotteCUSA1.611.6143.7543.75-0.20-0.20
Old DominionCUSA0.220.2262.8662.860.060.06
SyracuseACC0.200.2059.3859.380.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.200.2057.5857.580.030.03
VirginiaACC0.200.2078.7978.790.110.11
The CitadelSC0.180.1824.1424.14-0.09-0.09
CincinnatiAmer0.170.1768.7568.750.070.07
HofstraCAA0.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
East Tennessee St.SC0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
TowsonCAA0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.160.1684.3884.380.110.11
UNC GreensboroSC0.160.1637.9337.93-0.04-0.04
WoffordSC0.160.1643.3343.33-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.160.1651.6151.610.010.01
TempleAmer0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
Miami FLACC0.150.1578.1278.120.090.09
James MadisonCAA0.150.1564.5264.520.040.04
BuffaloMAC0.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
DukeACC0.140.1469.7069.700.060.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
DrexelCAA0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
TulaneAmer0.130.1335.2935.29-0.04-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
PennIvy0.130.1337.0437.04-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
North FloridaASun0.120.1263.3363.330.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
SamfordSC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.110.1122.2222.22-0.06-0.06
LafayettePat0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
South FloridaAmer0.100.1024.2424.24-0.05-0.05
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1021.8821.88-0.06-0.06
LouisvilleACC0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Penn St.B100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Wake ForestACC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
RiceCUSA0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
AmericanPat0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
DelawareCAA0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
IdahoBSky0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
HoustonAmer0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
RiderMAAC0.080.0839.3939.39-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
ColgatePat0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.04-0.04
VillanovaBE0.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
MississippiSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
ClemsonACC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
FloridaSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Oregon St.P120.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
UtahP120.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
LibertyBSth0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
BelmontOVC0.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Portland St.BSky0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
VermontAE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0511.1111.11-0.04-0.04
DetroitHorz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0522.8622.86-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
CampbellBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Texas TechB120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
MarylandB100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
ArizonaP120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
DePaulBE0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
RutgersB100.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Green BayHorz0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
IndianaB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
MaineAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
DenverSum0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
High PointBSth0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
PacificWCC0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
BrownIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
IowaB100.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0379.4179.410.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
FIUCUSA0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0256.0056.000.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
MichiganB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0283.8783.870.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
UABCUSA0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
USCP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
UTSACUSA0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
NorthwesternB100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
TexasB120.020.0262.5062.500.010.01