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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Davidson

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:35.0
Current RPI:35
Expected SOS:103
Current SOS:103
Current Record:23-7
Expected Record:23-7
Current Conf Record:15-5
Expected Conf Record:15-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-0
Current OOC Record:8-2
Expected OOC Record:8-2
Expected OOC RPI:75
Expected OOC SOS:235



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-735.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Davidson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-18Campbell (323.0)BSthH86-51W100%0.0
11-22North Carolina (11.0)ACCH72-90L0%0.0
11-26UCF (257.0)AmerA69-95W100%0.0
11-29UNC Wilmington (145.0)CAAH72-49W100%0.0
12-3Charlotte (211.0)CUSAH92-86W100%0.0
12-6Stetson (335.0)ASunH90-59W100%0.0
12-10Montana (144.0)BSkyA99-110W100%0.0
12-13Niagara (287.0)MAACH78-58W100%0.0
12-20College of Charleston (298.0)CAAA68-80W100%0.0
12-30Virginia (7.0)ACCA83-72L0%0.0
1-3Richmond (56.0)A10H81-67W100%0.0
1-7VCU (15.0)A10A71-65L0%0.0
1-10Saint Louis (272.0)A10H89-54W100%0.0
1-14Massachusetts (80.0)A10A63-71W100%0.0
1-17Richmond (56.0)A10A89-63L0%0.0
1-20Dayton (32.0)A10H77-60W100%0.0
1-24George Mason (221.0)A10A73-80W100%0.0
1-31Saint Joseph's (187.0)A10A75-70L0%0.0
2-4St. Bonaventure (121.0)A10H61-62L0%0.0
2-7Duquesne (222.0)A10H95-69W100%0.0
2-11George Mason (221.0)A10H92-71W100%0.0
2-14La Salle (101.0)A10A69-77W100%0.0
2-18George Washington (84.0)A10A63-65W100%0.0
2-21Fordham (238.0)A10H76-57W100%0.0
2-25Rhode Island (66.0)A10A59-60W100%0.0
2-28George Washington (84.0)A10H77-66W100%0.0
3-5VCU (15.0)A10H82-55W100%0.0
3-7Duquesne (222.0)A10A78-107W100%0.0
3-13La Salle (101.0)A10N67-66W100%0.0
3-14VCU (15.0)A10N73-93L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Davidson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Davidson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Davidson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DavidsonA1026.2026.2077.5477.5414.4314.43
VCUA105.775.7775.0075.002.882.88
George WashingtonA104.184.1867.7467.741.481.48
RichmondA104.084.0860.0060.000.820.82
George MasonA104.054.0528.5728.57-1.74-1.74
DuquesneA104.014.0139.2939.29-0.86-0.86
La SalleA103.993.9954.8454.840.390.39
DaytonA102.482.4878.1278.121.391.39
Saint LouisA102.452.4533.3333.33-0.82-0.82
FordhamA102.452.4531.0331.03-0.93-0.93
St. BonaventureA102.432.4356.6756.670.320.32
Rhode IslandA102.402.4072.4172.411.071.07
MassachusettsA102.372.3754.8454.840.230.23
Saint Joseph'sA102.352.3540.0040.00-0.47-0.47
VirginiaACC1.891.8990.3290.321.521.52
College of CharlestonCAA1.861.8628.1228.12-0.81-0.81
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.771.7758.6258.620.310.31
CharlotteCUSA1.741.7445.1645.16-0.17-0.17
CampbellBSth1.721.7225.0025.00-0.86-0.86
North CarolinaACC1.721.7267.6567.650.610.61
UCFAmer1.701.7039.2939.29-0.36-0.36
StetsonASun1.701.7022.2222.22-0.94-0.94
NiagaraMAAC1.691.6927.5927.59-0.76-0.76
MontanaBSky1.671.6762.0762.070.400.40
Old DominionCUSA0.260.2677.4277.420.140.14
James MadisonCAA0.210.2159.3859.380.040.04
NortheasternCAA0.210.2167.6567.650.070.07
DrexelCAA0.210.2137.9337.93-0.05-0.05
William & MaryCAA0.180.1860.0060.000.040.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.180.1856.2556.250.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.180.1890.9190.910.150.15
ManhattanMAAC0.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
SienaMAAC0.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
Florida St.ACC0.160.1651.5251.520.000.00
PittsburghACC0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
Penn St.B100.160.1652.9452.940.010.01
HofstraCAA0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
TowsonCAA0.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
Georgia TechACC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
LouisvilleACC0.150.1575.0075.000.080.08
VillanovaBE0.150.1594.1294.120.130.13
East CarolinaAmer0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
HowardMEAC0.140.1444.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
DelawareCAA0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
ElonCAA0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
Wake ForestACC0.130.1340.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.130.1363.6463.640.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.110.1167.8667.860.040.04
CanisiusMAAC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.110.1147.0647.06-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
PennIvy0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Notre DameACC0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
North FloridaASun0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
USC UpstateASun0.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0965.5265.520.030.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.090.0914.2914.29-0.06-0.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Weber St.BSky0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
MaristMAAC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.05-0.05
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
West VirginiaB120.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
ColgatePat0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.080.0828.1228.12-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
VMISC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
RutgersB100.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.070.0787.8887.880.060.06
BelmontOVC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
OregonP120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
ToledoMAC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
HoustonAmer0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
TulaneAmer0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
IdahoBSky0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Montana St.BSky0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NJITind0.060.0656.0056.000.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
OklahomaB120.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
RiderMAAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
MarylandB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
VermontAE0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0574.0774.070.030.03
IUPUISum0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
AmericanPat0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
ColoradoP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
Seton HallBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
UMBCAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
SyracuseACC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
IPFWSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
BrownIvy0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
HartfordAE0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
DenverSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0393.9493.940.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
FurmanSC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
KentuckySEC0.020.02100.00100.000.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0275.8675.860.010.01
UCLAP120.020.0260.6160.610.010.01