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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Maine

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:322.0
Current RPI:322
Expected SOS:220
Current SOS:220
Current Record:6-25
Expected Record:6-25
Current Conf Record:3-14
Expected Conf Record:3-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-8
Current OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC RPI:313
Expected OOC SOS:287



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
6-25322.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Maine.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Virginia Tech (48.0)ACCA80-67L0%0.0
11-13Longwood (343.0)BSthA58-80W100%0.0
11-19Boston University (187.0)PatA102-78L0%0.0
11-20Northeastern (136.0)CAAN80-72L0%0.0
11-21LIU Brooklyn (224.0)NECN66-71L0%0.0
11-30Central Connecticut (344.0)NECH61-82L0%0.0
12-3Duke (6.0)ACCA94-55L0%0.0
12-7Holy Cross (204.0)PatH55-53W100%0.0
12-10Dartmouth (305.0)IvyA68-73W100%0.0
12-18Quinnipiac (272.0)MAACH75-85L0%0.0
12-20Providence (56.0)BEA79-59L0%0.0
12-22Brown (284.0)IvyA82-77L0%0.0
12-30Buffalo (146.0)MACA79-60L0%0.0
1-2Columbia (262.0)IvyH73-98L0%0.0
1-5Vermont (46.0)AEH77-90L0%0.0
1-8UMBC (165.0)AEA75-64L0%0.0
1-11UMass Lowell (309.0)AEH73-71W100%0.0
1-14Stony Brook (176.0)AEH54-74L0%0.0
1-16Hartford (327.0)AEA54-44L0%0.0
1-19New Hampshire (127.0)AEH63-74L0%0.0
1-22Albany (129.0)AEA81-63L0%0.0
1-29Binghamton (311.0)AEH54-65L0%0.0
2-1Vermont (46.0)AEA74-53L0%0.0
2-4UMBC (165.0)AEH71-83L0%0.0
2-6Hartford (327.0)AEH52-41W100%0.0
2-9UMass Lowell (309.0)AEA100-68L0%0.0
2-12Stony Brook (176.0)AEA67-66L0%0.0
2-15New Hampshire (127.0)AEA64-51L0%0.0
2-19Albany (129.0)AEH56-74L0%0.0
2-25Binghamton (311.0)AEA71-72W100%0.0
3-1Vermont (46.0)AEA86-41L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Maine's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Maine's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Maine.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MaineAE26.3426.3420.6920.69-15.44-15.44
VermontAE5.805.8083.3383.333.873.87
AlbanyAE4.284.2858.0658.060.690.69
New HampshireAE4.254.2555.5655.560.470.47
Stony BrookAE4.214.2155.1755.170.440.44
HartfordAE4.184.1826.6726.67-1.95-1.95
UMass LowellAE4.094.0932.1432.14-1.46-1.46
BinghamtonAE4.094.0929.6329.63-1.67-1.67
UMBCAE4.094.0953.8553.850.310.31
DartmouthIvy1.971.9726.9226.92-0.91-0.91
BrownIvy1.911.9137.0437.04-0.50-0.50
ColumbiaIvy1.861.8636.0036.00-0.52-0.52
LIU BrooklynNEC1.851.8560.0060.000.370.37
Central ConnecticutNEC1.851.8517.8617.86-1.19-1.19
Boston UniversityPat1.851.8553.3353.330.120.12
QuinnipiacMAAC1.821.8230.0030.00-0.73-0.73
NortheasternCAA1.821.8246.6746.67-0.12-0.12
Holy CrossPat1.801.8048.3948.39-0.06-0.06
ProvidenceBE1.771.7761.2961.290.400.40
Virginia TechACC1.691.6967.7467.740.600.60
LongwoodBSth1.641.6414.8114.81-1.16-1.16
DukeACC1.641.6476.4776.470.870.87
BuffaloMAC1.611.6148.2848.28-0.06-0.06
YaleIvy0.380.3860.7160.710.080.08
CornellIvy0.360.3625.0025.00-0.18-0.18
MaristMAAC0.330.3325.0025.00-0.17-0.17
Loyola MDPat0.320.3246.6746.67-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.300.3061.5461.540.070.07
NavyPat0.270.2748.3948.39-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.240.2448.3948.39-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.240.2429.0329.03-0.10-0.10
Sacred HeartNEC0.240.2440.6240.62-0.04-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.230.2328.1228.12-0.10-0.10
BryantNEC0.220.2235.4835.48-0.06-0.06
St. Francis NYNEC0.210.2110.0010.00-0.17-0.17
NiagaraMAAC0.210.2130.3030.30-0.08-0.08
HofstraCAA0.210.2145.1645.16-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.210.2146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
TowsonCAA0.190.1959.3859.380.040.04
WagnerNEC0.190.1951.7251.720.010.01
LehighPat0.180.1861.2961.290.040.04
PrincetonIvy0.180.1878.5778.570.100.10
SienaMAAC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.170.1755.8855.880.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.160.1642.4242.42-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.160.1626.6726.67-0.07-0.07
CanisiusMAAC0.150.1554.5554.550.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.140.1428.1228.12-0.06-0.06
Seton HallBE0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
NJITASun0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Rhode IslandA100.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
St. John'sBE0.130.1342.4242.42-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
RutgersB100.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.130.1325.8125.81-0.06-0.06
Miami FLACC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
ButlerBE0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
WinthropBSth0.110.1180.0080.000.070.07
Charleston SouthernBSth0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
LibertyBSth0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.110.1161.7661.760.030.03
MassachusettsA100.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
LafayettePat0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
RiderMAAC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
VirginiaACC0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
ClemsonACC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Wake ForestACC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
DuquesneA100.090.0931.2531.25-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
XavierBE0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
PittsburghACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
HoustonAmer0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
WoffordSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
Penn St.B100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
Notre DameACC0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
CampbellBSth0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
RadfordBSth0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0636.0036.00-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
VCUA100.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
West VirginiaB120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Fort WayneSum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0564.7164.710.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
DavidsonA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
DePaulBE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
George MasonA100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Texas TechB120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
FordhamA100.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0396.9796.970.020.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
MichiganB100.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
VMISC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
KansasB120.020.0287.5087.500.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
UNLVMWC0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01