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Through games of Feb 9, 2016.


Maine

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:304.0
Current RPI:303
Expected SOS:305
Current SOS:314
Current Record:8-16
Expected Record:10-19
Current Conf Record:4-7
Expected Conf Record:6-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-10
Current OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:324
Expected OOC SOS:333



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-16249.00.03%
12-17269.21.25%
11-18285.514.23%
10-19299.738.90%
9-20312.035.18%
8-21322.310.40%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Maine.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Connecticut (37.2)AmerA100-56L0%0.0
11-19LIU Brooklyn (286.2)NECA84-79L0%0.0
11-21Wagner (190.4)NECA87-73L0%0.0
11-25Longwood (319.5)BSthH92-82W100%0.0
11-29Central Connecticut (350.3)NECA74-81W100%0.0
12-2Army (214.8)PatH71-84L0%0.0
12-5Marquette (124.2)BEA104-67L0%0.0
12-9Dartmouth (290.9)IvyH69-79L0%0.0
12-13Boston College (233.1)ACCA91-60L0%0.0
12-19Fordham (188.9)A10A70-53L0%0.0
12-21Holy Cross (289.7)PatA76-75L0%0.0
12-29Quinnipiac (274.8)MAACH98-95W100%0.0
1-2Brown (290.8)IvyH98-92W100%0.0
1-6Vermont (161.2)AEH72-90L0%0.0
1-9UMBC (320.1)AEA89-76L0%0.0
1-13UMass Lowell (262.8)AEA81-95W100%0.0
1-15Albany (89.1)AEH81-79W100%0.0
1-18New Hampshire (194.6)AEH91-99L0%0.0
1-25Stony Brook (45.6)AEA81-54L0%0.0
1-27Hartford (313.4)AEA100-105W100%0.0
1-30Binghamton (309.3)AEH74-63W100%0.0
2-3Vermont (161.2)AEA85-68L0%0.0
2-6UMBC (320.1)AEH79-83L0%0.0
2-8New Hampshire (194.6)AEA88-75L0%0.0
2-11UMass Lowell (262.8)AEH0-053%0.9
2-14Albany (89.1)AEA0-04%-19.2
2-21Stony Brook (45.6)AEH0-05%-18.2
2-24Hartford (313.4)AEH0-062%3.5
2-27Binghamton (309.3)AEA0-036%-3.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Maine's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Maine's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Maine.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MaineAE26.3726.3434.6233.21-8.11-8.85
UMass LowellAE2.934.4236.3636.59-0.80-1.19
New HampshireAE4.844.4252.6350.310.250.03
HartfordAE2.814.4126.0927.32-1.35-2.00
VermontAE4.764.3547.8351.64-0.210.14
AlbanyAE2.834.3579.1778.321.652.46
BinghamtonAE2.804.3421.7423.52-1.58-2.30
UMBCAE4.664.3217.3921.25-3.04-2.48
Stony BrookAE2.664.2780.9581.431.642.69
Central ConnecticutNEC2.502.1413.6414.03-1.82-1.54
DartmouthIvy2.402.0327.7829.12-1.07-0.85
Holy CrossPat2.412.0236.3636.11-0.66-0.56
LIU BrooklynNEC2.331.9745.4547.04-0.21-0.12
QuinnipiacMAAC2.301.9338.1037.44-0.55-0.48
BrownIvy2.271.9133.3332.26-0.76-0.68
Boston CollegeACC2.331.9126.0924.30-1.11-0.98
WagnerNEC2.221.9061.9063.730.530.52
ConnecticutAmer2.271.8872.7371.561.030.81
ArmyPat2.171.8452.1752.960.090.11
LongwoodBSth2.221.8123.8125.90-1.16-0.87
FordhamA102.221.8152.6350.410.120.02
MarquetteBE2.081.7260.8754.580.450.16
Boston UniversityPat0.370.3954.1755.600.030.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.460.3934.7837.05-0.14-0.10
ColgatePat0.500.3943.4844.80-0.06-0.04
BryantNEC0.440.3425.0026.39-0.22-0.16
YaleIvy0.320.3373.6874.680.150.16
St. Francis NYNEC0.310.3237.5043.38-0.08-0.04
CornellIvy0.240.3142.1140.21-0.04-0.06
MaristMAAC0.370.3021.7424.19-0.21-0.15
St. Francis PANEC0.270.3050.0049.460.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.360.3040.0045.50-0.07-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.360.2924.0024.55-0.19-0.15
AmericanPat0.280.2830.4331.91-0.11-0.10
Loyola MDPat0.310.2734.7837.17-0.09-0.07
HarvardIvy0.280.2435.0038.50-0.08-0.06
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.280.2450.0051.920.000.01
NJITASun0.220.2454.1755.280.020.03
ColumbiaIvy0.200.2266.6765.220.070.07
PennIvy0.200.2238.8937.63-0.04-0.05
PrincetonIvy0.160.1972.2274.700.070.09
LehighPat0.140.1836.3639.78-0.04-0.04
Notre DameACC0.180.1870.8367.790.070.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.180.1828.0030.73-0.08-0.07
NavyPat0.220.1762.5062.370.050.04
SienaMAAC0.170.1764.0064.140.050.05
ProvidenceBE0.190.1775.0070.990.090.07
St. John'sBE0.270.1725.0023.40-0.13-0.09
SMUAmer0.150.1590.9186.110.130.11
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.150.1540.9143.29-0.03-0.02
RiderMAAC0.190.1540.0042.11-0.04-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.130.1571.4368.940.050.06
Rhode IslandA100.150.1258.3357.170.030.02
FairfieldMAAC0.150.1254.1754.140.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.130.1245.8346.64-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.190.1280.0081.160.110.07
BucknellPat0.180.1254.5558.160.020.02
LafayettePat0.130.1221.7423.00-0.07-0.06
Seton HallBE0.190.1273.9169.970.090.05
BuffaloMAC0.130.1256.5256.990.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.140.1256.0052.830.020.01
George MasonA100.150.0933.3333.68-0.05-0.03
RichmondA100.100.0954.5554.470.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.150.0944.0045.31-0.02-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0945.4547.57-0.01-0.00
MassachusettsA100.100.0940.9139.33-0.02-0.02
RutgersB100.090.0921.7420.37-0.05-0.05
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0942.8642.05-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.090.0925.0026.86-0.05-0.04
FIUCUSA0.090.0940.9145.30-0.02-0.01
Saint LouisA100.040.0936.3633.54-0.01-0.03
Michigan St.B100.090.0980.0081.600.050.06
DuquesneA100.080.0960.8756.430.020.01
LouisvilleACC0.090.0979.1776.070.050.04
South FloridaAmer0.040.0920.0019.68-0.02-0.05
SyracuseACC0.090.0866.6762.530.030.02
Wake ForestACC0.080.0843.4840.46-0.01-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.0635.0034.80-0.03-0.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0665.2264.220.010.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0656.5259.860.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0645.4546.24-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.090.0628.5729.65-0.04-0.03
High PointBSth0.050.0655.0057.460.000.01
La SalleA100.050.0620.0020.46-0.03-0.04
LibertyBSth0.050.0634.7836.50-0.01-0.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0664.0062.060.010.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0650.0051.300.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.0682.6178.910.070.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0665.2266.200.030.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0665.0063.410.010.02
George WashingtonA100.100.0678.2674.410.050.03
IonaMAAC0.050.0660.8760.720.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0625.0033.22-0.05-0.02
OaklandHorz0.040.0668.0067.980.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0640.0043.44-0.02-0.01
FloridaSEC0.080.0666.6766.320.030.02
KentuckySEC0.040.0675.0072.610.020.03
North FloridaASun0.040.0665.2267.130.010.02
PurdueB100.080.0680.0077.930.050.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0642.8650.39-0.010.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0650.0045.840.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.040.0669.5767.150.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.080.0630.0034.55-0.03-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0672.0071.540.020.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0658.3358.310.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.0664.0062.090.000.01
DePaulBE0.040.0633.3334.01-0.01-0.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0669.5766.580.020.02
HowardMEAC0.080.0636.3638.92-0.02-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0629.1733.74-0.03-0.02
MemphisAmer0.090.0660.8760.820.020.01
North CarolinaACC0.090.0683.3378.390.060.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0628.5726.98-0.04-0.03
TempleAmer0.050.0663.6459.810.010.01
TowsonCAA0.080.0665.2259.770.030.01
TulaneAmer0.090.0633.3332.36-0.03-0.02
TulsaAmer0.050.0665.2261.470.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0650.0044.860.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.040.0687.5086.910.030.04
XavierBE0.090.0687.5081.810.070.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0331.8236.14-0.02-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0366.6767.700.020.01
StanfordP120.050.0350.0046.540.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0360.8757.190.010.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0323.8126.56-0.02-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0360.0060.080.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0314.2920.67-0.04-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0360.0057.940.000.00
DaytonA100.050.0386.9682.300.040.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0352.0050.250.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0319.0525.89-0.03-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0345.8342.26-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0352.1754.170.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0368.1871.320.020.01
VCUA100.050.0373.9173.970.020.01
Air ForceMWC0.040.0345.4538.44-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.040.0324.0025.67-0.02-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0352.9452.080.000.00
KansasB120.050.0382.6179.190.030.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0361.9056.430.010.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0345.0049.25-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.040.0350.0048.130.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.040.0354.1751.690.000.00
BelmontOVC0.040.0366.6766.540.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.040.034.357.72-0.04-0.02
DelawareCAA0.040.0321.7423.34-0.02-0.01
DukeACC0.040.0375.0071.800.020.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0343.4841.96-0.01-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.040.0369.5764.890.020.01
FurmanSC0.050.0354.1754.060.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0352.1751.510.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0378.2676.810.030.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.040.0315.0018.09-0.03-0.02
IowaB100.040.0382.6180.550.030.02
IUPUISum0.040.0340.0039.81-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.040.0350.0054.200.000.00
LSUSEC0.040.0365.2260.260.010.01
MarylandB100.050.0387.5083.700.030.02
Miami FLACC0.040.0382.6177.520.030.02
MichiganB100.050.0369.5766.220.020.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0350.0049.090.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0360.0055.500.010.00
Penn St.B100.040.0350.0046.740.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.040.0372.7367.630.020.01
San Jose St.MWC0.040.0325.0022.73-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.040.0330.4331.20-0.02-0.01
StetsonASun0.040.0323.8127.67-0.02-0.01
TexasB120.050.0366.6762.200.020.01
UC IrvineBW0.040.0372.7371.650.020.01
VirginiaACC0.040.0383.3378.470.030.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0352.0048.860.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.040.0360.8755.830.010.00