Maine

Conference:	AE
Expected RPI:	261.2
Current RPI:	272
Expected SOS:	337
Current SOS:	342
Current Record:	10-10
Expected Record:	13-14
Current Conf Record:	5-5
Expected Conf Record:	8-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	2.58%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	12-5
Current OOC Record:	5-5
Expected OOC Record:	6-5
Expected OOC RPI:	207
Expected OOC SOS:	311

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-10	200.9	0.28%
16-11	217.6	3.43%
15-12	234.9	14.08%
14-13	253.7	29.95%
13-14	269.6	31.22%
12-15	282.5	16.20%
11-16	292.6	4.36%
10-17	301.6	0.47%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Maine.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-17	Connecticut (27.1)	BE	A	80-60	L	0%	0.0
11-27	Holy Cross (226.1)	Pat	H	72-60	W	100%	0.0
11-30	Eastern Illinois (293.4)	OVC	A	85-80	L	0%	0.0
12-4	Rhode Island (250.6)	A10	A	74-76	W	100%	0.0
12-8	Notre Dame (66.5)	BE	A	87-78	L	0%	0.0
12-10	San Diego (210.6)	WCC	A	77-63	L	0%	0.0
12-19	Utah Valley (222.0)	GWC	H	77-60	W	100%	0.0
12-21	Eastern Illinois (293.4)	OVC	H	64-60	W	100%	0.0
12-23	Brown (305.2)	Ivy	A	58-71	W	100%	0.0
12-29	Florida Gulf Coast (206.9)	ASun	A	84-72	L	0%	0.0
1-2	Binghamton (343.4)	AE	A	61-76	W	100%	0.0
1-7	MD Baltimore County (332.6)	AE	H	89-70	W	100%	0.0
1-11	Boston University (175.2)	AE	H	68-77	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Albany (208.3)	AE	A	76-75	L	0%	0.0
1-16	Vermont (173.1)	AE	A	79-65	L	0%	0.0
1-19	Hartford (328.5)	AE	H	49-63	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Stony Brook (154.7)	AE	H	52-58	L	0%	0.0
1-25	New Hampshire (315.8)	AE	A	69-80	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Binghamton (343.4)	AE	H	67-59	W	100%	0.0
2-4	MD Baltimore County (332.6)	AE	A	76-77	W	100%	0.0
2-6	Vermont (173.1)	AE	H	0-0		39%	-3.1
2-9	Boston University (175.2)	AE	A	0-0		24%	-7.8
2-11	Albany (208.3)	AE	H	0-0		51%	0.3
2-15	Hartford (328.5)	AE	A	0-0		66%	4.5
2-17	Marist (276.6)	MAAC	H	0-0		75%	7.2
2-22	New Hampshire (315.8)	AE	H	0-0		73%	6.8
2-26	Stony Brook (154.7)	AE	A	0-0		15%	-11.1

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Maine's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Maine's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Maine.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Maine	AE	26.46	26.44	54.35	52.13	2.30	1.13
Hartford	AE	3.27	4.69	13.64	17.55	-2.38	-3.04
New Hampshire	AE	3.20	4.68	36.84	40.60	-0.84	-0.88
Stony Brook	AE	3.32	4.65	65.00	66.11	1.00	1.50
Vermont	AE	3.17	4.63	58.33	61.24	0.53	1.04
Albany	AE	3.28	4.63	58.33	59.45	0.55	0.88
Boston University	AE	3.27	4.63	45.83	49.37	-0.27	-0.06
Binghamton	AE	5.55	4.59	0.00	4.32	-5.55	-4.19
MD Baltimore County	AE	5.49	4.59	15.00	17.56	-3.84	-2.98
Eastern Illinois	OVC	5.06	3.77	31.58	33.22	-1.86	-1.27
Brown	Ivy	2.72	2.07	28.57	24.62	-1.17	-1.05
Marist	MAAC	0.17	2.04	34.78	33.71	-0.05	-0.67
Holy Cross	Pat	2.67	2.02	42.86	43.61	-0.38	-0.26
Connecticut	BE	2.67	1.94	66.67	62.75	0.89	0.50
Rhode Island	A10	2.61	1.94	21.74	21.29	-1.47	-1.12
Notre Dame	BE	2.61	1.91	63.64	61.41	0.71	0.44
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	2.50	1.85	47.62	47.01	-0.12	-0.11
San Diego	WCC	2.50	1.85	30.00	31.28	-1.00	-0.69
Utah Valley	GWC	2.50	1.85	57.14	59.91	0.36	0.37
Cornell	Ivy	0.27	0.31	36.84	41.45	-0.07	-0.05
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.33	0.31	14.29	17.17	-0.24	-0.21
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.34	0.29	44.00	45.89	-0.04	-0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.28	0.29	30.43	29.50	-0.11	-0.12
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.23	0.29	77.27	73.45	0.13	0.14
Boston College	ACC	0.28	0.26	30.43	26.44	-0.11	-0.12
Rider	MAAC	0.17	0.26	37.50	38.52	-0.04	-0.06
Niagara	MAAC	0.17	0.25	37.50	41.54	-0.04	-0.04
Yale	Ivy	0.33	0.25	72.22	63.19	0.15	0.07
Harvard	Ivy	0.27	0.25	90.48	87.91	0.22	0.19
Columbia	Ivy	0.17	0.23	55.00	54.80	0.02	0.02
Providence	BE	0.23	0.22	56.52	50.27	0.03	0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.28	0.22	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.22	0.22	73.91	75.00	0.10	0.11
Morehead St.	OVC	0.23	0.20	45.45	46.99	-0.02	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.16	0.19	4.00	5.26	-0.15	-0.17
Canisius	MAAC	0.11	0.19	17.39	19.81	-0.07	-0.12
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.11	0.19	21.74	24.58	-0.06	-0.10
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.16	0.19	8.70	12.13	-0.13	-0.14
Northeastern	CAA	0.10	0.19	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.15	0.18	56.52	57.15	0.02	0.03
Siena	MAAC	0.10	0.18	45.45	45.55	-0.01	-0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.18	0.16	54.55	54.30	0.02	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.23	0.16	75.00	75.78	0.11	0.08
Army	Pat	0.17	0.16	40.91	41.72	-0.03	-0.03
American	Pat	0.23	0.16	65.22	63.79	0.07	0.04
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.22	0.16	45.45	45.70	-0.02	-0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.17	0.16	68.00	69.07	0.06	0.06
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.17	0.16	54.55	56.84	0.02	0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.21	0.15	32.00	35.39	-0.08	-0.04
La Salle	A10	0.16	0.15	70.83	68.82	0.07	0.06
South Florida	BE	0.16	0.15	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.10	0.15	95.83	92.01	0.10	0.13
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.12	0.14	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.18	0.14	25.00	28.52	-0.09	-0.06
Murray St.	OVC	0.24	0.14	100.00	94.55	0.24	0.12
Northwestern	B10	0.18	0.14	61.90	55.14	0.04	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.12	0.14	26.32	29.71	-0.06	-0.06
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.24	0.14	47.62	47.18	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.12	0.14	4.35	9.66	-0.11	-0.11
Navy	Pat	0.11	0.13	9.52	13.19	-0.09	-0.09
Central Florida	CUSA	0.16	0.12	71.43	66.60	0.07	0.04
St. John's	BE	0.17	0.12	43.48	40.28	-0.02	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.16	0.12	40.91	34.50	-0.03	-0.04
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.12	79.17	80.10	0.03	0.07
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.10	0.12	26.09	28.60	-0.05	-0.05
Maryland	ACC	0.16	0.12	59.09	50.82	0.03	0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.16	0.12	76.00	72.50	0.08	0.05
Pittsburgh	BE	0.10	0.12	60.87	58.16	0.02	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.12	45.45	46.08	-0.00	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.18	0.10	5.26	7.30	-0.16	-0.09
San Francisco	WCC	0.12	0.10	56.52	53.77	0.02	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.11	0.10	81.82	81.49	0.07	0.06
Radford	BSth	0.00	0.10	8.70	13.10	-0.00	-0.07
Missouri	B12	0.16	0.09	91.30	87.18	0.13	0.07
Seton Hall	BE	0.17	0.09	65.22	63.74	0.05	0.03
Monmouth	NEC	0.11	0.09	28.00	28.91	-0.05	-0.04
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.11	0.09	56.52	55.95	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.06	0.09	65.22	65.17	0.02	0.03
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.10	0.09	81.82	80.43	0.06	0.05
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.09	62.50	62.49	0.01	0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.09	77.27	77.67	0.03	0.05
Texas	B12	0.10	0.09	60.87	61.37	0.02	0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.12	0.07	33.33	35.97	-0.04	-0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.12	0.07	75.00	76.00	0.06	0.04
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.12	0.07	27.78	29.87	-0.05	-0.03
Chicago St.	GWC	0.06	0.07	4.76	9.95	-0.05	-0.05
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.00	0.07	30.00	30.06	-0.00	-0.03
Indiana St.	MVC	0.12	0.07	56.52	54.22	0.02	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.12	0.07	34.78	38.42	-0.04	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.12	0.07	19.05	21.29	-0.07	-0.04
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.06	0.07	59.09	57.76	0.01	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.12	0.07	70.00	73.28	0.05	0.03
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.06	0.07	33.33	38.38	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota	GWC	0.06	0.07	33.33	41.31	-0.02	-0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.06	0.07	31.82	33.83	-0.02	-0.02
Portland	WCC	0.06	0.07	21.74	21.70	-0.03	-0.04
Santa Clara	WCC	0.12	0.07	28.57	26.30	-0.05	-0.03
Seattle	ind	0.11	0.07	23.53	33.28	-0.06	-0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.12	0.07	90.91	87.74	0.10	0.05
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.12	0.07	56.52	53.10	0.02	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.00	0.07	60.87	59.76	0.00	0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.07	19.05	24.61	-0.04	-0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.12	0.07	52.63	48.41	0.01	-0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.11	0.07	76.19	70.73	0.06	0.03
Belmont	ASun	0.06	0.07	69.57	73.28	0.02	0.03
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.06	0.07	52.38	52.86	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.11	0.07	17.39	22.00	-0.07	-0.04
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.11	0.07	8.70	11.67	-0.09	-0.05
Lafayette	Pat	0.06	0.07	43.48	42.95	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.11	0.07	73.91	74.91	0.05	0.03
Lipscomb	ASun	0.06	0.07	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.11	0.07	70.83	71.64	0.05	0.03
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.07	45.83	46.68	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.07	54.55	56.09	0.01	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.07	31.82	31.31	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.11	0.07	69.57	65.15	0.04	0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.11	0.06	66.67	69.69	0.04	0.03
Longwood	ind	0.11	0.06	30.00	27.84	-0.05	-0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.11	0.06	79.17	78.10	0.06	0.04
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.11	0.06	25.00	37.58	-0.06	-0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.06	41.67	38.67	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.11	0.06	45.00	44.15	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.11	0.06	52.38	46.68	0.01	-0.00
Princeton	Ivy	0.06	0.06	47.37	52.87	-0.00	0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.11	0.06	8.33	10.86	-0.09	-0.05
Cincinnati	BE	0.11	0.06	69.57	65.47	0.04	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.00	0.06	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.06	0.06	80.95	77.38	0.04	0.03
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.06	78.26	72.66	0.03	0.03
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.06	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.06	47.83	50.65	-0.00	0.00
Long Island	NEC	0.05	0.06	70.83	71.05	0.02	0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.06	73.91	68.58	0.02	0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.06	60.00	58.29	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.06	60.00	59.06	0.01	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.03	16.67	23.02	-0.04	-0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.00	0.03	47.83	47.87	-0.00	-0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.06	0.03	27.27	35.02	-0.03	-0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.06	0.03	15.00	15.73	-0.04	-0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.03	36.36	38.48	-0.02	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.06	0.03	47.62	44.63	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.03	34.78	35.20	-0.02	-0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.06	0.03	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
Portland St.	BSky	0.06	0.03	42.86	45.80	-0.01	-0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.03	85.71	78.05	0.04	0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.06	0.03	52.38	52.87	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P12	0.06	0.03	69.57	68.29	0.02	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.03	47.06	50.75	-0.00	0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.06	0.03	61.90	58.59	0.01	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.03	35.00	35.26	-0.02	-0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.06	0.03	55.56	58.01	0.01	0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.06	0.03	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	SC	0.06	0.03	58.33	59.98	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.03	65.00	60.02	0.02	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.03	35.00	40.78	-0.02	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.06	0.03	38.10	37.86	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.06	0.03	57.14	49.54	0.01	-0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.03	38.10	40.81	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.00	0.03	95.83	92.57	0.00	0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.03	42.11	49.81	-0.01	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.03	72.73	71.71	0.03	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.06	0.03	54.17	49.44	0.00	-0.00
NC Asheville	BSth	0.06	0.03	68.18	67.64	0.02	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.06	0.03	45.45	44.66	-0.01	-0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.06	0.03	82.61	84.57	0.04	0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.00	0.03	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.03	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	35.29	39.85	-0.02	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.03	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.03	59.09	56.35	0.01	0.00
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.03	34.78	32.08	-0.02	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	41.20	-0.00	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.03	40.00	40.18	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.00
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	26.32	29.79	-0.03	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	75.06	0.03	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.00
Xavier	A10	0.00	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.00	0.01