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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Maine

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:310.8
Current RPI:277
Expected SOS:272
Current SOS:227
Current Record:1-5
Expected Record:8-22
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-10
Current OOC Record:1-5
Expected OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC RPI:315
Expected OOC SOS:270



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-12144.00.01%
16-14175.00.02%
15-15202.60.07%
14-16218.50.24%
13-17232.40.89%
12-18252.21.97%
11-19270.05.14%
10-20286.310.33%
9-21300.315.49%
8-22311.518.76%
7-23321.119.13%
6-24329.314.23%
5-25335.48.52%
4-26340.13.67%
3-27343.21.28%
2-28344.90.20%
1-29348.20.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Maine.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Virginia Tech (64.9)ACCA80-67L0%0.0
11-13Longwood (325.2)BSthA58-80W100%0.0
11-19Boston University (172.4)PatA102-78L0%0.0
11-20Northeastern (167.3)CAAA80-72L0%0.0
11-21LIU Brooklyn (214.2)NECN66-71L0%0.0
11-30Central Connecticut (293.0)NECH61-82L0%0.0
12-3Duke (8.6)ACCA0-00%-37.2
12-7Holy Cross (183.0)PatH0-033%-5.3
12-10Dartmouth (310.5)IvyA0-031%-5.8
12-18Quinnipiac (268.6)MAACH0-044%-1.8
12-20Providence (75.1)BEA0-02%-24.5
12-22Brown (272.3)IvyA0-023%-8.9
12-30Buffalo (138.0)MACA0-010%-15.6
1-2Columbia (253.3)IvyH0-035%-4.5
1-5Vermont (91.3)AEH0-014%-12.9
1-8UMBC (212.5)AEA0-019%-10.4
1-11UMass Lowell (255.3)AEH0-044%-1.9
1-14Stony Brook (298.6)AEH0-049%-0.3
1-16Hartford (335.7)AEA0-043%-2.1
1-19New Hampshire (156.1)AEH0-029%-6.6
1-22Albany (156.7)AEA0-011%-14.4
1-29Binghamton (270.8)AEH0-050%0.0
2-1Vermont (91.3)AEA0-06%-19.1
2-4UMBC (212.5)AEH0-036%-4.2
2-6Hartford (335.7)AEH0-063%4.0
2-9UMass Lowell (255.3)AEA0-025%-8.1
2-12Stony Brook (298.6)AEA0-030%-6.5
2-15New Hampshire (156.1)AEA0-014%-12.8
2-19Albany (156.7)AEH0-025%-8.2
2-25Binghamton (270.8)AEA0-030%-6.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Maine's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Maine's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Maine.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MaineAE29.4526.3225.0026.92-14.73-12.15
HartfordAE1.534.2612.5020.87-1.15-2.48
VermontAE0.004.2662.5070.300.001.73
New HampshireAE0.004.2550.0055.820.000.49
AlbanyAE0.004.2350.0058.840.000.75
Stony BrookAE0.004.2316.6731.83-0.00-1.54
UMass LowellAE0.694.2325.0039.04-0.35-0.93
BinghamtonAE0.834.1642.8639.49-0.12-0.88
UMBCAE0.004.1680.0054.000.000.33
DartmouthIvy1.042.020.0021.73-1.04-1.14
BrownIvy0.001.9950.0041.140.00-0.35
ColumbiaIvy0.001.9342.8641.59-0.00-0.32
Boston UniversityPat10.221.9240.0051.87-2.040.07
LIU BrooklynNEC9.621.9280.0056.545.770.25
Central ConnecticutNEC8.331.9225.0035.42-4.17-0.56
Holy CrossPat0.001.8742.8647.04-0.00-0.11
NortheasternCAA10.421.8650.0046.460.00-0.13
QuinnipiacMAAC0.001.8616.6733.57-0.00-0.61
ProvidenceBE0.001.8171.4354.890.000.18
Virginia TechACC8.331.7683.3361.645.560.41
LongwoodBSth8.331.7033.3325.61-2.78-0.83
DukeACC0.001.6987.5077.970.000.95
BuffaloMAC0.001.6740.0049.51-0.00-0.02
CornellIvy0.600.3828.5730.63-0.26-0.15
YaleIvy0.000.3833.3364.14-0.000.11
MaristMAAC0.000.3442.8635.68-0.00-0.10
Loyola MDPat0.690.3133.3340.49-0.23-0.06
HarvardIvy0.000.300.0043.04-0.00-0.04
St. Francis PANEC1.040.2640.0043.86-0.21-0.03
NavyPat0.000.2628.5743.62-0.00-0.03
ColgatePat0.000.2620.0041.31-0.00-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.000.2550.0027.250.00-0.11
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.2542.8638.05-0.00-0.06
BryantNEC0.000.2428.5750.20-0.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.2316.6729.36-0.00-0.09
PennIvy0.830.2140.0057.97-0.170.03
ArmyPat0.000.2033.3345.58-0.00-0.02
HofstraCAA0.000.2057.1440.550.00-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.000.2016.6727.03-0.00-0.09
WagnerNEC0.000.2033.3353.85-0.000.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.1925.0063.95-0.000.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1712.5048.98-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.000.1750.0054.490.000.02
AmericanPat0.000.1716.6735.65-0.00-0.05
LehighPat0.000.1733.3367.01-0.000.06
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1733.3341.52-0.00-0.03
SienaMAAC0.000.1728.5750.51-0.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.150.0028.15-0.00-0.06
NJITASun0.000.1442.8650.32-0.000.00
Seton HallBE0.830.1471.4354.520.360.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1425.0039.28-0.00-0.03
Miami FLACC0.000.1471.4365.740.000.04
Rhode IslandA100.000.1471.4370.330.000.06
St. John'sBE0.000.1428.5733.92-0.00-0.05
RutgersB100.000.1483.3344.770.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.1442.8636.82-0.00-0.04
WinthropBSth0.000.1260.0070.500.000.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1216.6736.35-0.00-0.03
LibertyBSth0.000.1240.0050.71-0.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.11100.0076.650.000.06
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1120.0034.22-0.00-0.04
BucknellPat0.000.1175.0067.660.000.04
LafayettePat0.000.1133.3331.87-0.00-0.04
SyracuseACC0.000.1166.6770.140.000.04
ButlerBE0.000.11100.0075.690.000.06
MassachusettsA100.000.1183.3358.080.000.02
RiderMAAC0.000.1150.0047.990.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.000.11100.0082.550.000.07
DuquesneA100.000.0937.5034.65-0.00-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0925.0038.72-0.00-0.02
High PointBSth0.600.0950.0051.260.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.090.0034.23-0.00-0.03
The CitadelSC0.000.0940.0027.05-0.00-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.000.0950.0052.330.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0983.3362.080.000.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0985.7180.960.000.05
Kent St.MAC0.600.0950.0051.820.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0850.0055.850.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.690.0860.0052.760.140.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0871.4350.570.000.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0885.7155.550.000.01
XavierBE0.000.08100.0074.800.000.04
ClemsonACC0.000.0866.6753.460.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0883.3358.030.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0850.0056.260.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0871.4371.570.000.04
Penn St.B100.000.0862.5043.960.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.08100.0080.780.000.05
William & MaryCAA0.000.0840.0055.44-0.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0885.7162.410.000.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.0885.7180.010.000.05
Wake ForestACC0.000.0871.4352.370.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0820.0036.00-0.00-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0625.0053.29-0.000.00
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0033.54-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0019.51-0.00-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0620.0048.38-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0628.5730.29-0.00-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0633.3327.13-0.00-0.03
RadfordBSth0.000.0633.3336.31-0.00-0.02
RichmondA100.000.0657.1448.600.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.0671.4363.570.000.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0650.0064.840.000.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0683.3380.550.000.04
FIUCUSA0.000.0616.6733.69-0.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0650.0071.330.000.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.060.0039.35-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0685.7178.150.000.03
AkronMAC0.000.0683.3369.840.000.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0633.3343.64-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0666.6756.360.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.060.0034.18-0.00-0.02
MarylandB100.000.0685.7156.490.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0650.0033.010.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0680.0068.320.000.02
ConnecticutAmer1.290.0633.3338.76-0.43-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0662.5056.500.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0640.0040.65-0.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0666.6770.930.000.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0683.3376.370.000.03
IndianaB100.000.0683.3375.060.000.03
IonaMAAC0.000.0660.0070.140.000.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0633.3338.19-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0024.77-0.00-0.03
SMUAmer0.000.0657.1469.300.000.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0683.3377.170.000.03
WoffordSC0.000.060.0033.58-0.00-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0566.6739.720.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0585.7175.950.000.03
Michigan St.B100.000.0550.0061.590.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.05100.0075.010.000.03
DavidsonA100.000.0583.3368.880.000.02
DePaulBE0.000.0580.0035.960.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0550.0047.560.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0571.4363.090.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0540.0030.80-0.00-0.02
VillanovaBE0.000.05100.0083.120.000.04
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0038.26-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0046.780.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0350.0059.670.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0357.1442.940.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0366.6765.810.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.040.0325.0056.71-0.520.00
Texas TechB120.000.0385.7163.780.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6737.09-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0018.22-0.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.0357.1443.680.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0375.0070.470.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.30-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6770.740.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0342.8650.36-0.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0320.0054.94-0.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6736.45-0.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0091.060.000.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.030.0037.92-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0333.3346.81-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.600.0371.4366.530.260.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0385.7165.670.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0371.4346.010.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.600.0350.0043.610.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.600.0371.4358.670.260.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0366.6775.370.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0383.3378.430.000.02
Texas A&MSEC0.600.0366.6766.100.200.01
VMISC0.600.030.0021.15-0.60-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0387.5075.320.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0328.5734.18-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0385.7176.170.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0385.7159.740.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0385.7172.660.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.77-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0383.3370.360.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0371.4349.590.00-0.00