Maine

Conference:	AE
Expected RPI:	267.0
Current RPI:	267
Expected SOS:	246
Current SOS:	246
Current Record:	10-19
Expected Record:	10-19
Current Conf Record:	6-11
Expected Conf Record:	6-11
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	3-10
Current OOC Record:	4-8
Expected OOC Record:	4-8
Expected OOC RPI:	267
Expected OOC SOS:	292

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
10-19	267.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Maine.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Dartmouth (294.0)	Ivy	A	67-54	L	0%
11-14	Holy Cross (251.0)	Pat	A	57-54	L	0%
11-17	Brown (241.0)	Ivy	H	68-70	L	0%
11-21	Seton Hall (138.0)	BE	A	76-49	L	0%
11-25	Siena (295.0)	MAAC	H	72-66	W	100%
11-28	Northeastern (159.0)	CAA	A	73-76	W	100%
12-1	Duquesne (229.0)	A10	A	87-73	L	0%
12-9	Florida St. (85.0)	ACC	A	91-59	L	0%
12-14	Army (205.0)	Pat	A	96-67	L	0%
12-16	Marist (262.0)	MAAC	A	94-69	L	0%
12-22	Florida Gulf Coast (94.0)	ASun	H	84-78	W	100%
12-29	Quinnipiac (191.0)	NEC	A	71-76	W	100%
1-2	Boston University (148.0)	AE	H	63-58	W	100%
1-5	MD Baltimore County (298.0)	AE	H	81-66	W	100%
1-9	Hartford (187.0)	AE	A	68-61	L	0%
1-12	Albany (130.0)	AE	A	76-63	L	0%
1-19	Binghamton (336.0)	AE	H	56-57	L	0%
1-22	Vermont (134.0)	AE	H	71-68	W	100%
1-26	Stony Brook (81.0)	AE	A	79-69	L	0%
1-30	New Hampshire (293.0)	AE	H	54-57	L	0%
2-2	MD Baltimore County (298.0)	AE	A	68-67	L	0%
2-5	Boston University (148.0)	AE	A	79-72	L	0%
2-9	Albany (130.0)	AE	H	66-52	W	100%
2-13	Hartford (187.0)	AE	H	66-64	W	100%
2-16	Binghamton (336.0)	AE	A	60-64	W	100%
2-20	Vermont (134.0)	AE	A	73-61	L	0%
2-24	Stony Brook (81.0)	AE	H	53-69	L	0%
3-3	New Hampshire (293.0)	AE	A	79-74	L	0%
3-9	Albany (130.0)	AE	A	50-49	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Maine's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Maine's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Maine.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Maine	AE	26.38	26.38	36.52	36.52	-7.11	-7.11
Albany	AE	6.21	6.21	70.97	70.97	2.61	2.61
Vermont	AE	4.61	4.61	66.67	66.67	1.54	1.54
Stony Brook	AE	4.49	4.49	75.00	75.00	2.24	2.24
Hartford	AE	4.44	4.44	57.14	57.14	0.63	0.63
New Hampshire	AE	4.44	4.44	23.08	23.08	-2.39	-2.39
Binghamton	AE	4.41	4.41	3.70	3.70	-4.09	-4.09
MD Baltimore County	AE	4.41	4.41	21.43	21.43	-2.52	-2.52
Boston University	AE	4.35	4.35	59.26	59.26	0.81	0.81
Brown	Ivy	1.99	1.99	42.31	42.31	-0.31	-0.31
Quinnipiac	NEC	1.97	1.97	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Dartmouth	Ivy	1.96	1.96	26.92	26.92	-0.91	-0.91
Marist	MAAC	1.95	1.95	30.00	30.00	-0.78	-0.78
Siena	MAAC	1.94	1.94	25.81	25.81	-0.94	-0.94
Holy Cross	Pat	1.93	1.93	37.93	37.93	-0.47	-0.47
Army	Pat	1.90	1.90	48.28	48.28	-0.07	-0.07
Northeastern	CAA	1.84	1.84	64.52	64.52	0.53	0.53
Duquesne	A10	1.80	1.80	24.14	24.14	-0.93	-0.93
Seton Hall	BE	1.78	1.78	43.75	43.75	-0.22	-0.22
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	1.72	1.72	70.97	70.97	0.72	0.72
Florida St.	ACC	1.72	1.72	53.12	53.12	0.11	0.11
Colgate	Pat	0.40	0.40	34.38	34.38	-0.12	-0.12
Yale	Ivy	0.36	0.36	41.38	41.38	-0.06	-0.06
Canisius	MAAC	0.34	0.34	58.06	58.06	0.05	0.05
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.33	0.33	65.62	65.62	0.10	0.10
Cornell	Ivy	0.30	0.30	40.00	40.00	-0.06	-0.06
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.29	0.29	43.33	43.33	-0.04	-0.04
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.29	0.29	31.03	31.03	-0.11	-0.11
Niagara	MAAC	0.28	0.28	59.38	59.38	0.05	0.05
Navy	Pat	0.28	0.28	23.33	23.33	-0.15	-0.15
Harvard	Ivy	0.27	0.27	66.67	66.67	0.09	0.09
Bryant	NEC	0.27	0.27	63.33	63.33	0.07	0.07
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.25	0.25	30.00	30.00	-0.10	-0.10
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.25	0.25	40.00	40.00	-0.05	-0.05
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.24	0.24	29.03	29.03	-0.10	-0.10
American	Pat	0.23	0.23	33.33	33.33	-0.08	-0.08
Connecticut	BE	0.23	0.23	66.67	66.67	0.08	0.08
George Mason	CAA	0.23	0.23	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Columbia	Ivy	0.21	0.21	38.46	38.46	-0.05	-0.05
Bucknell	Pat	0.20	0.20	84.38	84.38	0.14	0.14
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.20	0.20	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.19	0.19	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.17	0.17	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.17	0.17	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.15	0.15	59.26	59.26	0.03	0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.15	0.15	14.29	14.29	-0.11	-0.11
Boston College	ACC	0.15	0.15	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.14	0.14	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.14	0.14	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
Rhode Island	A10	0.14	0.14	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
La Salle	A10	0.14	0.14	70.00	70.00	0.06	0.06
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.14	0.14	22.58	22.58	-0.08	-0.08
Towson	CAA	0.14	0.14	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.14	0.14	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.12	0.12	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.12	0.12	42.31	42.31	-0.02	-0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.12	0.12	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Providence	BE	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.11	0.11	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
Maryland	ACC	0.11	0.11	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
Long Island	NEC	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
North Florida	ASun	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Wagner	NEC	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.10	0.10	22.58	22.58	-0.06	-0.06
Washington	P12	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.09	0.09	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
George Washington	A10	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.09	0.09	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Belmont	OVC	0.09	0.09	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
DePaul	BE	0.08	0.08	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.08	0.08	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Old Dominion	CAA	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.06	-0.06
Charlotte	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
St. John's	BE	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	SC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.08	0.08	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Wake Forest	ACC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Michigan	B10	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Longwood	BSth	0.06	0.06	19.35	19.35	-0.04	-0.04
Notre Dame	BE	0.06	0.06	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Colorado	P12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.06	0.06	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	10.00	10.00	-0.04	-0.04
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.05	74.29	74.29	0.03	0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Elon	SC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Appalachian St.	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Butler	A10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
New Orleans	ind	0.03	0.03	18.18	18.18	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Florida International	SB	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	14.81	14.81	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00