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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Maine

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:339.0
Current RPI:339
Expected SOS:229
Current SOS:229
Current Record:3-27
Expected Record:3-27
Current Conf Record:2-15
Expected Conf Record:2-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-11
Current OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC RPI:321
Expected OOC SOS:160



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
3-27339.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Maine.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Butler (31.0)BEA99-57L0%0.0
11-17NJIT (159.0)indA90-86L0%0.0
11-21Central Michigan (70.0)MACA76-48L0%0.0
11-23Valparaiso (50.0)HorzN93-70L0%0.0
11-30Northern Illinois (185.0)MACA61-56L0%0.0
12-2Wagner (294.0)NECH82-81W100%0.0
12-6Dartmouth (186.0)IvyA74-51L0%0.0
12-9LIU Brooklyn (256.0)NECH70-83L0%0.0
12-11Boston College (165.0)ACCA85-74L0%0.0
12-21Army (235.0)PatA72-69L0%0.0
12-27Seton Hall (97.0)BEA72-43L0%0.0
12-29Quinnipiac (226.0)MAACA81-64L0%0.0
1-3Albany (99.0)AEA80-56L0%0.0
1-7Vermont (203.0)AEH54-68L0%0.0
1-10Binghamton (332.0)AEA65-46L0%0.0
1-13UMass Lowell (266.0)AEH59-62L0%0.0
1-17Stony Brook (107.0)AEH39-82L0%0.0
1-19NJIT (159.0)indH55-65L0%0.0
1-22UMBC (346.0)AEH59-76L0%0.0
1-25Hartford (244.0)AEA61-70W100%0.0
1-28New Hampshire (193.0)AEH58-63L0%0.0
1-31Albany (99.0)AEH59-77L0%0.0
2-3Vermont (203.0)AEA68-49L0%0.0
2-7Binghamton (332.0)AEH67-64W100%0.0
2-14Stony Brook (107.0)AEA80-52L0%0.0
2-18UMass Lowell (266.0)AEA82-71L0%0.0
2-21UMBC (346.0)AEA73-66L0%0.0
2-25Hartford (244.0)AEH60-63L0%0.0
2-28New Hampshire (193.0)AEA65-56L0%0.0
3-4Albany (99.0)AEA83-66L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Maine's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Maine's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Maine.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MaineAE26.4626.469.859.85-21.25-21.25
AlbanyAE6.066.0672.4172.412.722.72
New HampshireAE4.414.4155.5655.560.490.49
Stony BrookAE4.394.3963.3363.331.171.17
VermontAE4.364.3653.5753.570.310.31
UMass LowellAE4.354.3534.6234.62-1.34-1.34
UMBCAE4.294.297.147.14-3.67-3.67
HartfordAE4.284.2844.4444.44-0.48-0.48
BinghamtonAE4.274.2714.2914.29-3.05-3.05
NJITind3.723.7252.1752.170.160.16
DartmouthIvy1.991.9948.1548.15-0.07-0.07
LIU BrooklynNEC1.961.9637.9337.93-0.47-0.47
QuinnipiacMAAC1.861.8648.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Boston CollegeACC1.841.8438.7138.71-0.42-0.42
WagnerNEC1.781.7832.1432.14-0.63-0.63
Northern IllinoisMAC1.761.7642.8642.86-0.25-0.25
Central MichiganMAC1.721.7270.3770.370.700.70
ArmyPat1.721.7246.4346.43-0.12-0.12
ButlerBE1.721.7267.7467.740.610.61
Seton HallBE1.721.7250.0050.000.000.00
ValparaisoHorz1.671.6782.7682.761.091.09
YaleIvy0.350.3566.6766.670.120.12
ProvidenceBE0.320.3266.6766.670.110.11
Central ConnecticutNEC0.290.2916.1316.13-0.20-0.20
Sacred HeartNEC0.290.2945.1645.16-0.03-0.03
BryantNEC0.280.2851.6151.610.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.260.2644.8344.83-0.03-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.260.2650.0050.000.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.260.2641.3841.38-0.04-0.04
ColgatePat0.250.2546.8846.88-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.240.2466.6766.670.080.08
St. John'sBE0.200.2064.5264.520.060.06
MarquetteBE0.200.2040.6240.62-0.04-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.200.2050.0050.000.000.00
Notre DameACC0.190.1985.2985.290.140.14
ColumbiaIvy0.190.1944.4444.44-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.190.1936.6736.67-0.05-0.05
NiagaraMAAC0.190.1926.6726.67-0.09-0.09
SienaMAAC0.190.1935.4835.48-0.05-0.05
BrownIvy0.180.1837.9337.93-0.04-0.04
CornellIvy0.170.1741.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.170.1758.0658.060.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.170.1771.8871.880.080.08
VillanovaBE0.170.1794.1294.120.150.15
LehighPat0.170.1751.7251.720.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
LafayettePat0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
ToledoMAC0.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.140.1420.6920.69-0.08-0.08
PennIvy0.140.1432.1432.14-0.05-0.05
AkronMAC0.140.1458.8258.820.030.03
NavyPat0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
HarvardIvy0.140.1474.0774.070.070.07
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.140.1447.0647.06-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.140.1421.8821.88-0.08-0.08
BucknellPat0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
DePaulBE0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
GeorgetownBE0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
XavierBE0.130.1361.7661.760.030.03
DuquesneA100.130.1336.6736.67-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
PrincetonIvy0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
USCP120.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
AmericanPat0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
HofstraCAA0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
CreightonBE0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.090.0928.1228.12-0.04-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
FIUCUSA0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Green BayHorz0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.080.0868.5768.570.030.03
UNLVMWC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
MercerSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
NorthwesternB100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
OaklandHorz0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
New MexicoMWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
IdahoBSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0318.7518.75-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
VMISC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Oregon St.P120.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TempleAmer0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
BelmontOVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0390.6290.620.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01