Maine

Conference:	AE
Expected RPI:	338.0
Current RPI:	338
Expected SOS:	264
Current SOS:	264
Current Record:	4-26
Expected Record:	4-26
Current Conf Record:	3-14
Expected Conf Record:	3-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-13
Current OOC Record:	1-12
Expected OOC Record:	1-12
Expected OOC RPI:	350
Expected OOC SOS:	331

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
4-26	338.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Maine.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Boston College (96.0)	ACC	A	85-65	L	0%
11-14	Texas Tech (23.0)	B12	A	83-44	L	0%
11-18	South Alabama (270.0)	SB	N	46-68	L	0%
11-19	Sacred Heart (321.0)	NEC	N	69-68	L	0%
11-22	Boston University (212.0)	Pat	H	69-78	L	0%
11-26	Quinnipiac (277.0)	MAAC	A	72-78	W	100%
11-28	Georgetown (169.0)	BE	A	76-55	L	0%
12-2	Fordham (290.0)	A10	A	67-66	L	0%
12-8	Dartmouth (334.0)	Ivy	H	66-73	L	0%
12-17	Saint Joseph's (147.0)	A10	A	72-59	L	0%
12-20	Central Connecticut (263.0)	NEC	A	84-57	L	0%
12-22	Massachusetts (240.0)	A10	A	74-63	L	0%
12-30	Columbia (316.0)	Ivy	A	83-71	L	0%
1-3	Stony Brook (208.0)	AE	A	71-70	L	0%
1-6	Binghamton (320.0)	AE	A	73-76	W	100%
1-10	UMBC (111.0)	AE	H	67-72	L	0%
1-13	Albany (142.0)	AE	H	66-84	L	0%
1-15	Vermont (60.0)	AE	A	83-62	L	0%
1-18	Hartford (198.0)	AE	H	68-86	L	0%
1-24	New Hampshire (312.0)	AE	H	69-68	W	100%
1-27	UMBC (111.0)	AE	A	86-74	L	0%
1-31	UMass Lowell (289.0)	AE	H	64-88	L	0%
2-3	Binghamton (320.0)	AE	H	81-79	W	100%
2-8	New Hampshire (312.0)	AE	A	71-56	L	0%
2-11	Stony Brook (208.0)	AE	H	61-64	L	0%
2-15	Hartford (198.0)	AE	A	67-63	L	0%
2-21	UMass Lowell (289.0)	AE	A	88-76	L	0%
2-24	Albany (142.0)	AE	A	89-79	L	0%
2-27	Vermont (60.0)	AE	H	62-74	L	0%
3-3	Vermont (60.0)	AE	A	75-60	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Maine's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Maine's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Maine.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Maine	AE	26.36	26.36	14.93	14.93	-18.49	-18.49
Vermont	AE	5.94	5.94	76.67	76.67	3.17	3.17
Hartford	AE	4.37	4.37	55.17	55.17	0.45	0.45
UMBC	AE	4.34	4.34	65.52	65.52	1.35	1.35
Stony Brook	AE	4.31	4.31	34.48	34.48	-1.34	-1.34
UMass Lowell	AE	4.31	4.31	33.33	33.33	-1.44	-1.44
Albany	AE	4.30	4.30	65.52	65.52	1.33	1.33
New Hampshire	AE	4.26	4.26	25.93	25.93	-2.05	-2.05
Binghamton	AE	4.17	4.17	33.33	33.33	-1.39	-1.39
Dartmouth	Ivy	2.00	2.00	20.00	20.00	-1.20	-1.20
Sacred Heart	NEC	1.94	1.94	27.59	27.59	-0.87	-0.87
Columbia	Ivy	1.89	1.89	24.00	24.00	-0.98	-0.98
Quinnipiac	MAAC	1.89	1.89	37.50	37.50	-0.47	-0.47
Boston College	ACC	1.86	1.86	54.55	54.55	0.17	0.17
Central Connecticut	NEC	1.86	1.86	41.94	41.94	-0.30	-0.30
Boston University	Pat	1.84	1.84	44.83	44.83	-0.19	-0.19
Massachusetts	A10	1.83	1.83	37.50	37.50	-0.46	-0.46
Saint Joseph's	A10	1.77	1.77	48.39	48.39	-0.06	-0.06
Fordham	A10	1.74	1.74	26.67	26.67	-0.81	-0.81
Texas Tech	B12	1.72	1.72	71.88	71.88	0.75	0.75
South Alabama	SB	1.69	1.69	37.93	37.93	-0.41	-0.41
Georgetown	BE	1.67	1.67	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.41	0.41	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.31	0.31	56.67	56.67	0.04	0.04
Bryant	NEC	0.30	0.30	9.68	9.68	-0.25	-0.25
Brown	Ivy	0.29	0.29	38.46	38.46	-0.07	-0.07
Colgate	Pat	0.28	0.28	58.06	58.06	0.04	0.04
Yale	Ivy	0.26	0.26	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.24	0.24	70.00	70.00	0.10	0.10
Cornell	Ivy	0.24	0.24	40.74	40.74	-0.05	-0.05
Bucknell	Pat	0.24	0.24	73.53	73.53	0.11	0.11
George Mason	A10	0.24	0.24	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.23	0.23	40.62	40.62	-0.04	-0.04
Holy Cross	Pat	0.22	0.22	38.71	38.71	-0.05	-0.05
Richmond	A10	0.21	0.21	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
Siena	MAAC	0.21	0.21	25.00	25.00	-0.10	-0.10
Loyola MD	Pat	0.20	0.20	26.67	26.67	-0.09	-0.09
Army	Pat	0.20	0.20	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Providence	BE	0.19	0.19	61.76	61.76	0.04	0.04
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.18	0.18	78.12	78.12	0.10	0.10
St. John's	BE	0.16	0.16	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.16	0.16	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.16	0.16	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Rutgers	B10	0.16	0.16	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
Penn	Ivy	0.15	0.15	74.19	74.19	0.07	0.07
Princeton	Ivy	0.15	0.15	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.14	0.14	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.13	0.13	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Texas	B12	0.13	0.13	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Marquette	BE	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.13	0.13	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
Rhode Island	A10	0.13	0.13	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Villanova	BE	0.11	0.11	88.24	88.24	0.09	0.09
Connecticut	Amer	0.11	0.11	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.11	0.11	20.00	20.00	-0.07	-0.07
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	6.67	6.67	-0.10	-0.10
Lafayette	Pat	0.11	0.11	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Marist	MAAC	0.11	0.11	19.35	19.35	-0.07	-0.07
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Robert Morris	NEC	0.11	0.11	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	15.62	15.62	-0.07	-0.07
Maryland	B10	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.11	0.11	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	A10	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
VCU	A10	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.10	0.10	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Northeastern	CAA	0.10	0.10	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Penn St.	B10	0.09	0.09	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Navy	Pat	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.08	0.08	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
FIU	CUSA	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Notre Dame	ACC	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Miami OH	MAC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Monmouth	MAAC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Louisville	ACC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Saint Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Syracuse	ACC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Evansville	MVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
NJIT	ASun	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	BE	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Creighton	BE	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Georgia Southern	SB	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Xavier	BE	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Tulane	Amer	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	3.33	3.33	-0.05	-0.05
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Memphis	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
SMU	Amer	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
TCU	B12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	CAA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
New Orleans	Slnd	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
North Texas	CUSA	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
UT Arlington	SB	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	24.24	24.24	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Temple	Amer	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
BYU	WCC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.02	0.02	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.02	0.02	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01