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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Maine

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:338.0
Current RPI:338
Expected SOS:264
Current SOS:264
Current Record:4-26
Expected Record:4-26
Current Conf Record:3-14
Expected Conf Record:3-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-13
Current OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC RPI:350
Expected OOC SOS:331



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
4-26338.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Maine.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Boston College (96.0)ACCA85-65L0%0.0
11-14Texas Tech (23.0)B12A83-44L0%0.0
11-18South Alabama (270.0)SBN46-68L0%0.0
11-19Sacred Heart (321.0)NECN69-68L0%0.0
11-22Boston University (212.0)PatH69-78L0%0.0
11-26Quinnipiac (277.0)MAACA72-78W100%0.0
11-28Georgetown (169.0)BEA76-55L0%0.0
12-2Fordham (290.0)A10A67-66L0%0.0
12-8Dartmouth (334.0)IvyH66-73L0%0.0
12-17Saint Joseph's (147.0)A10A72-59L0%0.0
12-20Central Connecticut (263.0)NECA84-57L0%0.0
12-22Massachusetts (240.0)A10A74-63L0%0.0
12-30Columbia (316.0)IvyA83-71L0%0.0
1-3Stony Brook (208.0)AEA71-70L0%0.0
1-6Binghamton (320.0)AEA73-76W100%0.0
1-10UMBC (111.0)AEH67-72L0%0.0
1-13Albany (142.0)AEH66-84L0%0.0
1-15Vermont (60.0)AEA83-62L0%0.0
1-18Hartford (198.0)AEH68-86L0%0.0
1-24New Hampshire (312.0)AEH69-68W100%0.0
1-27UMBC (111.0)AEA86-74L0%0.0
1-31UMass Lowell (289.0)AEH64-88L0%0.0
2-3Binghamton (320.0)AEH81-79W100%0.0
2-8New Hampshire (312.0)AEA71-56L0%0.0
2-11Stony Brook (208.0)AEH61-64L0%0.0
2-15Hartford (198.0)AEA67-63L0%0.0
2-21UMass Lowell (289.0)AEA88-76L0%0.0
2-24Albany (142.0)AEA89-79L0%0.0
2-27Vermont (60.0)AEH62-74L0%0.0
3-3Vermont (60.0)AEA75-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Maine's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Maine's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Maine.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MaineAE26.3626.3614.9314.93-18.49-18.49
VermontAE5.945.9476.6776.673.173.17
HartfordAE4.374.3755.1755.170.450.45
UMBCAE4.344.3465.5265.521.351.35
Stony BrookAE4.314.3134.4834.48-1.34-1.34
UMass LowellAE4.314.3133.3333.33-1.44-1.44
AlbanyAE4.304.3065.5265.521.331.33
New HampshireAE4.264.2625.9325.93-2.05-2.05
BinghamtonAE4.174.1733.3333.33-1.39-1.39
DartmouthIvy2.002.0020.0020.00-1.20-1.20
Sacred HeartNEC1.941.9427.5927.59-0.87-0.87
ColumbiaIvy1.891.8924.0024.00-0.98-0.98
QuinnipiacMAAC1.891.8937.5037.50-0.47-0.47
Boston CollegeACC1.861.8654.5554.550.170.17
Central ConnecticutNEC1.861.8641.9441.94-0.30-0.30
Boston UniversityPat1.841.8444.8344.83-0.19-0.19
MassachusettsA101.831.8337.5037.50-0.46-0.46
Saint Joseph'sA101.771.7748.3948.39-0.06-0.06
FordhamA101.741.7426.6726.67-0.81-0.81
Texas TechB121.721.7271.8871.880.750.75
South AlabamaSB1.691.6937.9337.93-0.41-0.41
GeorgetownBE1.671.6748.2848.28-0.06-0.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.410.4151.5251.520.010.01
HarvardIvy0.310.3156.6756.670.040.04
BryantNEC0.300.309.689.68-0.25-0.25
BrownIvy0.290.2938.4638.46-0.07-0.07
ColgatePat0.280.2858.0658.060.040.04
YaleIvy0.260.2650.0050.000.000.00
WagnerNEC0.240.2470.0070.000.100.10
CornellIvy0.240.2440.7440.74-0.05-0.05
BucknellPat0.240.2473.5373.530.110.11
George MasonA100.240.2448.4848.48-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.230.2340.6240.62-0.04-0.04
Holy CrossPat0.220.2238.7138.71-0.05-0.05
RichmondA100.210.2137.5037.50-0.05-0.05
SienaMAAC0.210.2125.0025.00-0.10-0.10
Loyola MDPat0.200.2026.6726.67-0.09-0.09
ArmyPat0.200.2041.3841.38-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.190.1961.7661.760.040.04
St. BonaventureA100.180.1878.1278.120.100.10
St. John'sBE0.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.160.1645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
St. Francis PANEC0.160.1657.1457.140.020.02
RutgersB100.160.1642.4242.42-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.150.1574.1974.190.070.07
PrincetonIvy0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.130.1351.5251.520.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
TexasB120.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.130.1368.9768.970.050.05
Rhode IslandA100.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
VillanovaBE0.110.1188.2488.240.090.09
ConnecticutAmer0.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.110.1120.0020.00-0.07-0.07
Delaware St.MEAC0.110.116.676.67-0.10-0.10
LafayettePat0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
MaristMAAC0.110.1119.3519.35-0.07-0.07
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.1115.6215.62-0.07-0.07
MarylandB100.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
DuquesneA100.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
VCUA100.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
RiderMAAC0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
NortheasternCAA0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
DaytonA100.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
Penn St.B100.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
NavyPat0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
LehighPat0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
TroySB0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Seton HallBE0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Saint LouisA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
SyracuseACC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
BradleyMVC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
KentuckySEC0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
FloridaSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
FurmanSC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
NJITASun0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
CreightonBE0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0680.6580.650.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
TulaneAmer0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ArizonaP120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.053.333.33-0.05-0.05
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
OklahomaB120.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TCUB120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.039.689.68-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0332.3532.35-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
DrexelCAA0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0379.4179.410.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
DukeACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
NebraskaB100.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0271.4371.430.010.01
PittsburghACC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.020.0293.9493.940.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01