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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Maine

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:330.0
Current RPI:330
Expected SOS:256
Current SOS:256
Current Record:5-23
Expected Record:5-23
Current Conf Record:4-13
Expected Conf Record:4-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-11
Current OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC RPI:309
Expected OOC SOS:117



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
5-23330.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Maine.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Rhode Island (155.0)A10A97-77L0%0.0
11-12George Washington (29.0)A10A108-81L0%0.0
11-19NJIT (308.0)indH82-88L0%0.0
11-25Quinnipiac (105.0)MAACH61-102L0%0.0
12-1Dartmouth (266.0)IvyH56-81L0%0.0
12-4NJIT (308.0)indA81-72L0%0.0
12-6Connecticut (22.0)AmerA95-68L0%0.0
12-13Army (235.0)PatH80-90L0%0.0
12-21Providence (40.0)BEA94-70L0%0.0
12-29Middle Tennessee (64.0)CUSAN89-85W100%0.0
12-30Chattanooga (243.0)SCA86-80L0%0.0
1-5Binghamton (325.0)AEH82-66W100%0.0
1-9Hartford (234.0)AEA80-65L0%0.0
1-11UMBC (327.0)AEA79-76L0%0.0
1-16Vermont (101.0)AEH46-83L0%0.0
1-18Albany (185.0)AEH78-85L0%0.0
1-23UMass Lowell (283.0)AEH62-74L0%0.0
1-26Stony Brook (165.0)AEA79-61L0%0.0
1-29New Hampshire (340.0)AEA60-68W100%0.0
2-1UMBC (327.0)AEH83-80W100%0.0
2-4Vermont (101.0)AEA93-65L0%0.0
2-8Binghamton (325.0)AEA73-58L0%0.0
2-12Hartford (234.0)AEH79-91L0%0.0
2-15Albany (185.0)AEA74-63L0%0.0
2-23Stony Brook (165.0)AEH79-83L0%0.0
2-27UMass Lowell (283.0)AEA84-72L0%0.0
3-2New Hampshire (340.0)AEH73-69W100%0.0
3-8Stony Brook (165.0)AEN80-54L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Maine's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Maine's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Maine.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MaineAE26.4926.4916.4116.41-17.80-17.80
Stony BrookAE6.306.3065.5265.521.961.96
AlbanyAE4.844.8453.3353.330.320.32
HartfordAE4.674.6748.3948.39-0.15-0.15
VermontAE4.664.6664.2964.291.331.33
UMass LowellAE4.654.6528.0028.00-2.05-2.05
New HampshireAE4.654.6518.5218.52-2.93-2.93
UMBCAE4.544.5425.9325.93-2.18-2.18
BinghamtonAE4.514.5121.4321.43-2.58-2.58
NJITind3.913.9130.4330.43-1.53-1.53
DartmouthIvy2.032.0336.0036.00-0.57-0.57
Rhode IslandA101.971.9740.0040.00-0.39-0.39
QuinnipiacMAAC1.961.9663.3363.330.520.52
George WashingtonA101.881.8874.1974.190.910.91
ProvidenceBE1.871.8766.6766.670.620.62
ArmyPat1.861.8644.8344.83-0.19-0.19
ChattanoogaSC1.791.7950.0050.000.000.00
ConnecticutAmer1.791.7975.7675.760.920.92
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.791.7973.3373.330.830.83
DuquesneA100.370.3741.3841.38-0.06-0.06
BrownIvy0.370.3751.8551.850.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.360.3659.3859.380.070.07
YaleIvy0.350.3551.8551.850.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.290.2934.4834.48-0.09-0.09
La SalleA100.280.2848.3948.39-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.250.2560.0060.000.050.05
NavyPat0.240.2427.5927.59-0.11-0.11
Boston UniversityPat0.240.2470.5970.590.100.10
BryantNEC0.210.2154.8454.840.020.02
CornellIvy0.210.213.703.70-0.20-0.20
Saint Joseph'sA100.200.2072.7372.730.090.09
VCUA100.200.2076.4776.470.100.10
Central ConnecticutNEC0.190.1934.4834.48-0.06-0.06
St. Francis NYNEC0.180.1854.8454.840.020.02
ColgatePat0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.170.1781.8281.820.110.11
SienaMAAC0.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.170.1775.0075.000.080.08
MaristMAAC0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
HarvardIvy0.150.1586.2186.210.110.11
HofstraCAA0.150.1530.3030.30-0.06-0.06
Seton HallBE0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
LehighPat0.150.1543.7543.75-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.140.1483.8783.870.100.10
MarquetteBE0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
PennIvy0.140.1428.5728.57-0.06-0.06
DetroitHorz0.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
FairfieldMAAC0.140.1421.8821.88-0.08-0.08
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.140.1431.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.1317.8617.86-0.09-0.09
LouisvilleAmer0.130.1385.2985.290.090.09
LafayettePat0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
ButlerBE0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
St. BonaventureA100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
AmericanPat0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
RadfordBSth0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.120.1216.1316.13-0.08-0.08
ManhattanMAAC0.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
FordhamA100.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
George MasonA100.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
RutgersAmer0.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
CreightonBE0.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
TulaneCUSA0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
UABCUSA0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0921.2121.21-0.05-0.05
DaytonA100.090.0969.7069.700.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
SMUAmer0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
MarylandACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
WashingtonP120.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
MemphisAmer0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.070.0770.3770.370.030.03
MichiganB100.070.0775.7675.760.030.03
Appalachian St.SC0.060.0619.2319.23-0.04-0.04
Arizona St.P120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
WoffordSC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
DukeACC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
SyracuseACC0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
WagnerNEC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
IonaMAAC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
TulsaCUSA0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
RichmondA100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Saint LouisA100.060.0680.6580.650.030.03
DrakeMVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
FloridaSEC0.060.0694.1294.120.050.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
XavierBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
IllinoisB100.030.0357.5857.580.010.01
IPFWSum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
DavidsonSC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
ElonSC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
IUPUISum0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
StanfordP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00