live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Dec 21, 2014.


Maine

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:320.6
Current RPI:321
Expected SOS:250
Current SOS:194
Current Record:1-9
Expected Record:6-23
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-9
Current OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC RPI:319
Expected OOC SOS:164



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-15204.00.01%
13-16216.40.05%
12-17234.00.24%
11-18259.20.99%
10-19278.93.27%
9-20295.87.80%
8-21308.914.93%
7-22319.021.04%
6-23327.422.05%
5-24333.916.64%
4-25339.19.12%
3-26343.03.11%
2-27346.50.66%
1-28348.00.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Maine.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Butler (35.3)BEA99-57L0%0.0
11-17NJIT (217.2)indA90-86L0%0.0
11-21Central Michigan (88.8)MACA76-48L0%0.0
11-23Valparaiso (84.7)HorzN93-70L0%0.0
11-30Northern Illinois (259.7)MACA61-56L0%0.0
12-2Wagner (280.7)NECH82-81W100%0.0
12-6Dartmouth (188.3)IvyA74-51L0%0.0
12-9LIU Brooklyn (227.8)NECH70-83L0%0.0
12-11Boston College (175.5)ACCA85-74L0%0.0
12-21Army (150.0)PatA72-69L0%0.0
12-27Seton Hall (47.8)BEA0-02%-24.2
12-29Quinnipiac (202.7)MAACA0-011%-14.1
1-3Albany (192.8)AEA0-011%-14.3
1-7Vermont (195.2)AEH0-028%-6.8
1-10Binghamton (343.2)AEA0-052%0.6
1-13UMass Lowell (202.7)AEH0-041%-2.6
1-17Stony Brook (133.4)AEH0-024%-8.2
1-19NJIT (217.2)indH0-043%-2.1
1-22UMBC (328.3)AEH0-066%4.9
1-25Hartford (203.7)AEA0-014%-12.4
1-28New Hampshire (179.5)AEH0-029%-6.5
1-31Albany (192.8)AEH0-031%-5.7
2-3Vermont (195.2)AEA0-09%-15.3
2-7Binghamton (343.2)AEH0-078%9.1
2-14Stony Brook (133.4)AEA0-08%-16.7
2-18UMass Lowell (202.7)AEA0-017%-11.2
2-21UMBC (328.3)AEA0-038%-3.6
2-25Hartford (203.7)AEH0-037%-3.9
2-28New Hampshire (179.5)AEA0-010%-15.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Maine's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Maine's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Maine.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MaineAE27.7226.448.3321.83-23.10-14.90
UMass LowellAE0.674.5050.0048.660.00-0.12
AlbanyAE0.214.4740.0052.87-0.040.26
New HampshireAE0.784.4150.0058.590.000.76
VermontAE0.314.3940.0051.46-0.060.13
UMBCAE0.004.3718.1823.56-0.00-2.31
BinghamtonAE0.504.360.008.74-0.50-3.60
HartfordAE0.254.3654.5551.620.020.14
Stony BrookAE0.284.3340.0053.73-0.060.32
NJITind5.283.8136.3640.24-1.44-0.74
DartmouthIvy5.362.0744.4446.23-0.60-0.16
LIU BrooklynNEC5.212.0425.0042.96-2.60-0.29
Boston CollegeACC5.001.9155.5636.660.56-0.51
QuinnipiacMAAC0.001.9150.0052.680.000.10
WagnerNEC5.001.8514.2932.16-3.57-0.66
Northern IllinoisMAC5.251.8233.3331.14-1.75-0.69
Central MichiganMAC5.001.7983.3369.483.330.70
ArmyPat5.001.7877.7866.142.780.58
ButlerBE5.001.7870.0067.532.000.62
Seton HallBE0.001.7881.8262.770.000.45
ValparaisoHorz5.001.7280.0071.963.000.76
YaleIvy0.000.3466.6763.060.000.09
ProvidenceBE0.250.3275.0057.450.130.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.210.3120.0027.60-0.12-0.14
BryantNEC0.250.3137.5050.46-0.060.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.3155.5660.570.000.07
Boston UniversityPat0.000.2830.0041.58-0.00-0.05
Holy CrossPat0.210.2550.0049.140.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.2555.5665.160.000.08
ColgatePat0.000.2420.0043.19-0.00-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.460.2230.0042.78-0.18-0.03
St. John'sBE0.490.2188.8965.680.380.07
ColumbiaIvy0.310.2166.6769.260.100.08
Notre DameACC0.000.2191.6776.600.000.11
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.2133.3340.88-0.00-0.04
Loyola MDPat0.230.2130.0028.28-0.09-0.09
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1955.5652.210.000.01
BrownIvy0.000.1940.0034.38-0.00-0.06
CornellIvy0.000.1850.0046.480.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.210.1860.0049.390.04-0.00
VillanovaBE0.000.18100.0083.420.000.12
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1860.0064.660.000.05
LehighPat0.280.1844.4455.25-0.030.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1812.5029.75-0.00-0.07
SienaMAAC0.000.1833.3349.48-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.310.1666.6768.370.100.06
Ball St.MAC0.230.1625.0037.11-0.11-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.000.1677.7871.240.000.07
HarvardIvy0.000.1575.0063.910.000.04
RiderMAAC0.000.1550.0052.960.000.01
PennIvy0.310.1537.5033.40-0.08-0.05
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1536.3647.95-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.360.1460.0034.330.07-0.05
GeorgetownBE0.230.1470.0059.760.090.03
DuquesneA100.210.1337.5033.78-0.05-0.04
HowardMEAC0.000.1330.0043.77-0.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1338.4644.44-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.1375.0066.160.000.04
ToledoMAC0.000.1363.6461.500.000.03
AkronMAC0.000.1260.0056.450.000.02
USCP120.500.1263.6440.160.14-0.02
AmericanPat0.000.1263.6464.150.000.03
BucknellPat0.000.1240.0037.24-0.00-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1237.5039.38-0.00-0.03
NavyPat0.000.1220.0022.49-0.00-0.07
PrincetonIvy0.000.1233.3341.93-0.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1230.0038.92-0.00-0.03
HofstraCAA0.310.1270.0076.570.120.06
MaristMAAC0.500.129.0915.53-0.41-0.08
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1240.0037.46-0.00-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1230.0037.19-0.00-0.03
CreightonBE0.000.1169.2349.070.00-0.00
XavierBE0.000.1172.7367.750.000.04
HamptonMEAC0.000.1050.0051.710.000.00
OhioMAC0.000.1042.8637.93-0.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0975.0067.220.000.03
Miami OHMAC0.000.0930.0028.63-0.00-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.360.0945.4543.17-0.03-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0954.5532.610.00-0.03
FIUCUSA0.280.0940.0047.08-0.06-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.280.0960.0042.970.06-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0970.0064.920.000.03
IowaB100.360.0966.6759.170.120.02
LongwoodBSth0.250.0920.0025.91-0.15-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.310.0950.0058.250.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.250.0977.7865.410.140.03
George WashingtonA100.000.0966.6765.780.000.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0966.6763.320.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.230.0933.3328.70-0.08-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0736.3646.70-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.210.0750.0040.340.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.070.0032.85-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.580.0618.1837.88-0.37-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0677.7858.610.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0640.0051.94-0.000.00
DetroitHorz0.000.0640.0047.83-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.000.0628.5727.36-0.00-0.03
Green BayHorz0.000.0677.7878.340.000.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0618.1820.68-0.00-0.04
IPFWSum0.480.0650.0054.440.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0630.0030.65-0.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0627.2732.26-0.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0681.8282.150.000.04
Rhode IslandA100.000.0666.6773.340.000.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0663.6436.240.00-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0670.0061.360.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0637.5064.62-0.000.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0660.0057.740.000.01
NorthwesternB100.580.0663.6442.700.16-0.01
DukeACC0.250.06100.0086.740.250.04
MercerSC0.250.0644.4443.16-0.03-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.480.0672.7361.760.220.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0660.0069.180.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0680.0068.200.000.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0660.0047.200.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0666.6750.030.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.06100.0075.560.000.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0650.0051.800.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.0681.8266.060.000.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0670.0052.280.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0660.0057.780.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.230.0672.7374.520.100.03
BradleyMVC0.360.0330.0032.35-0.14-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.360.0336.3645.36-0.10-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0320.0044.35-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.360.0312.5026.95-0.27-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.250.0350.0055.800.000.00
DelawareCAA0.250.030.008.46-0.25-0.03
DrakeMVC0.230.0318.1819.54-0.14-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.230.0371.4363.340.100.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.360.0340.0042.88-0.07-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.230.0350.0068.830.000.01
IdahoBSky0.360.0337.5053.02-0.090.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.250.0350.0037.510.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0363.6456.310.000.00
MarylandB100.310.0391.6772.610.260.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.360.039.0917.38-0.29-0.02
MissouriSEC0.230.0340.0032.37-0.05-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.230.0360.0064.830.050.01
Penn St.B100.000.0391.6755.080.000.00
PortlandWCC0.230.0370.0050.570.090.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.0350.0042.770.00-0.00
VMISC0.250.0333.3338.75-0.08-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0354.5553.370.000.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0370.0051.560.000.00
TempleAmer0.280.0363.6456.720.080.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0043.870.00-0.00
DaytonA100.250.0380.0069.340.150.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0354.5541.660.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0337.5049.96-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0380.0053.820.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0360.0061.400.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0084.350.000.02
MassachusettsA100.250.0354.5551.400.020.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0311.1125.40-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0375.0061.160.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0340.0041.10-0.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0089.960.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0360.0038.340.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0345.4537.63-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.250.0390.9170.260.200.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0387.5085.130.000.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0363.6464.930.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.230.0340.0049.35-0.05-0.00
IndianaB100.230.0381.8263.040.140.01
Indiana St.MVC0.230.0330.0029.93-0.09-0.01
OklahomaB120.230.0370.0062.800.090.01
TennesseeSEC0.230.0355.5646.470.03-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0366.6764.890.000.01