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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Maine

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:317.0
Current RPI:317
Expected SOS:294
Current SOS:294
Current Record:8-22
Expected Record:8-22
Current Conf Record:4-13
Expected Conf Record:4-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-10
Current OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:321
Expected OOC SOS:321



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-22317.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Maine.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Connecticut (32.0)AmerA100-56L0%0.0
11-19LIU Brooklyn (254.0)NECA84-79L0%0.0
11-21Wagner (185.0)NECA87-73L0%0.0
11-25Longwood (323.0)BSthH92-82W100%0.0
11-29Central Connecticut (351.0)NECA74-81W100%0.0
12-2Army (214.0)PatH71-84L0%0.0
12-5Marquette (110.0)BEA104-67L0%0.0
12-9Dartmouth (284.0)IvyH69-79L0%0.0
12-13Boston College (250.0)ACCA91-60L0%0.0
12-19Fordham (176.0)A10A70-53L0%0.0
12-21Holy Cross (248.0)PatA76-75L0%0.0
12-29Quinnipiac (297.0)MAACH98-95W100%0.0
1-2Brown (312.0)IvyH98-92W100%0.0
1-6Vermont (126.0)AEH72-90L0%0.0
1-9UMBC (335.0)AEA89-76L0%0.0
1-13UMass Lowell (261.0)AEA81-95W100%0.0
1-15Albany (107.0)AEH81-79W100%0.0
1-18New Hampshire (177.0)AEH91-99L0%0.0
1-25Stony Brook (59.0)AEA81-54L0%0.0
1-27Hartford (292.0)AEA100-105W100%0.0
1-30Binghamton (299.0)AEH74-63W100%0.0
2-3Vermont (126.0)AEA85-68L0%0.0
2-6UMBC (335.0)AEH79-83L0%0.0
2-8New Hampshire (177.0)AEA88-75L0%0.0
2-11UMass Lowell (261.0)AEH95-108L0%0.0
2-14Albany (107.0)AEA108-64L0%0.0
2-21Stony Brook (59.0)AEH56-75L0%0.0
2-24Hartford (292.0)AEH74-82L0%0.0
2-27Binghamton (299.0)AEA78-66L0%0.0
3-2Vermont (126.0)AEA99-82L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Maine's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Maine's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Maine.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MaineAE26.3626.3626.8726.87-12.19-12.19
VermontAE5.945.9456.6756.670.790.79
New HampshireAE4.414.4155.5655.560.490.49
HartfordAE4.374.3726.6726.67-2.04-2.04
Stony BrookAE4.334.3378.5778.572.472.47
UMass LowellAE4.274.2734.6234.62-1.31-1.31
BinghamtonAE4.264.2625.0025.00-2.13-2.13
AlbanyAE4.254.2575.8675.862.202.20
UMBCAE4.244.2416.6716.67-2.82-2.82
Central ConnecticutNEC2.052.0514.2914.29-1.47-1.47
Holy CrossPat1.971.9740.6240.62-0.37-0.37
DartmouthIvy1.971.9730.7730.77-0.76-0.76
LIU BrooklynNEC1.921.9250.0050.000.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC1.871.8731.0331.03-0.71-0.71
WagnerNEC1.861.8666.6766.670.620.62
Boston CollegeACC1.841.8419.3519.35-1.13-1.13
BrownIvy1.841.8426.9226.92-0.85-0.85
ConnecticutAmer1.811.8169.7069.700.710.71
ArmyPat1.801.8056.6756.670.240.24
LongwoodBSth1.751.7524.1424.14-0.90-0.90
FordhamA101.751.7553.5753.570.120.12
MarquetteBE1.671.6759.3859.380.310.31
Sacred HeartNEC0.380.3840.0040.00-0.08-0.08
ColgatePat0.380.3841.3841.38-0.07-0.07
Boston UniversityPat0.360.3654.8454.840.030.03
YaleIvy0.330.3377.7877.780.190.19
BryantNEC0.310.3123.3323.33-0.17-0.17
MaristMAAC0.300.3023.3323.33-0.16-0.16
St. Francis NYNEC0.300.3045.1645.16-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.290.2921.8821.88-0.17-0.17
CornellIvy0.290.2933.3333.33-0.10-0.10
St. Francis PANEC0.270.2741.3841.38-0.05-0.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.270.2742.4242.42-0.04-0.04
Loyola MDPat0.260.2630.0030.00-0.11-0.11
HarvardIvy0.250.2542.8642.86-0.04-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.250.2554.8454.840.020.02
AmericanPat0.240.2438.7138.71-0.06-0.06
NJITASun0.220.2253.3353.330.010.01
PennIvy0.210.2137.0437.04-0.05-0.05
ColumbiaIvy0.210.2165.5265.520.060.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.190.1931.2531.25-0.07-0.07
SienaMAAC0.190.1963.6463.640.050.05
LehighPat0.190.1951.6151.610.010.01
St. John'sBE0.180.1822.5822.58-0.10-0.10
PrincetonIvy0.180.1877.7877.780.100.10
Notre DameACC0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
RiderMAAC0.160.1639.3939.39-0.03-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.160.1673.3373.330.070.07
ProvidenceBE0.160.1669.7069.700.060.06
NavyPat0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.140.1483.3383.330.090.09
BuffaloMAC0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
BucknellPat0.130.1355.1755.170.010.01
RichmondA100.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.110.1179.4179.410.060.06
Seton HallBE0.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
GeorgetownBE0.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
RutgersB100.090.0919.3519.35-0.05-0.05
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.080.0864.2964.290.020.02
FIUCUSA0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
DuquesneA100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
PurdueB100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
XavierBE0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
MemphisAmer0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
TempleAmer0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
NorthwesternB100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0679.4179.410.030.03
George WashingtonA100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
CampbellBSth0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
IonaMAAC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
LibertyBSth0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
RadfordBSth0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
WinthropBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
North FloridaASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
DePaulBE0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
HoustonAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0535.2935.29-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
StanfordP120.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
VCUA100.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Arizona St.P120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.033.453.45-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
IUPUISum0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
KansasB120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
LSUSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
MarylandB100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
MichiganB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
TexasB120.020.0262.5062.500.010.01