live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


DePaul

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:197.3
Current RPI:205
Expected SOS:61
Current SOS:259
Current Record:6-4
Expected Record:10-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:231
Expected OOC SOS:301



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-1281.00.01%
16-1391.00.08%
15-14107.00.30%
14-15123.91.41%
13-16141.55.03%
12-17159.69.98%
11-18177.617.55%
10-19195.923.28%
9-20213.721.80%
8-21231.313.69%
7-22247.25.86%
6-23262.61.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for DePaul.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Illinois Chicago (309.2)HorzH72-71W100%0.0
11-18Drake (288.4)MVCH80-62W100%0.0
11-26Lehigh (147.2)PatH74-86L0%0.0
11-30Stanford (70.3)P12H87-72W100%0.0
12-2Northern Illinois (263.4)MACH78-67W100%0.0
12-4Chicago St. (340.9)WACA60-84W100%0.0
12-7Milwaukee (274.7)HorzH83-61W100%0.0
12-11George Washington (76.4)A10A81-68L0%0.0
12-14Illinois St. (83.8)MVCH72-78L0%0.0
12-18Oregon St. (128.3)P12A90-59L0%0.0
12-22Colorado (68.9)P12N0-024%-8.4
12-31Marquette (100.7)BEH0-044%-1.8
1-3Xavier (27.1)BEH0-020%-9.6
1-7Creighton (113.1)BEA0-021%-9.6
1-10Villanova (14.8)BEA0-04%-20.4
1-13Georgetown (47.0)BEH0-029%-6.6
1-18St. John's (41.5)BEH0-029%-6.6
1-22Seton Hall (38.0)BEA0-010%-15.2
1-24Xavier (27.1)BEA0-06%-18.0
1-27Providence (64.0)BEA0-014%-12.8
1-31Villanova (14.8)BEH0-015%-12.1
2-3Seton Hall (38.0)BEH0-028%-6.9
2-7Butler (36.1)BEA0-07%-17.7
2-11St. John's (41.5)BEA0-010%-14.9
2-18Providence (64.0)BEH0-035%-4.4
2-21Georgetown (47.0)BEA0-010%-14.9
2-24Creighton (113.1)BEH0-046%-1.2
2-28Butler (36.1)BEH0-021%-9.3
3-7Marquette (100.7)BEA0-019%-10.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

DePaul's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


DePaul's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  DePaul.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DePaulBE27.6726.3552.3829.301.32-10.91
ButlerBE0.004.4272.7366.710.001.48
Seton HallBE0.534.4190.0066.390.421.45
GeorgetownBE0.004.4070.0057.630.000.67
CreightonBE0.254.3975.0051.130.130.10
VillanovaBE0.284.39100.0082.460.282.85
ProvidenceBE0.004.3675.0056.140.000.53
XavierBE0.004.3672.7366.270.001.42
MarquetteBE0.004.3560.0047.590.00-0.21
St. John'sBE0.004.3588.8964.070.001.23
Illinois St.MVC5.001.8455.5660.230.560.38
Illinois ChicagoHorz5.001.7920.0021.60-3.00-1.01
StanfordP125.001.7875.0060.332.500.37
Oregon St.P125.001.7875.0054.662.500.17
DrakeMVC5.001.7820.0020.16-3.00-1.06
MilwaukeeHorz5.001.7833.3332.64-1.67-0.62
ColoradoP120.001.7866.6757.320.000.26
George WashingtonA105.001.7862.5064.261.250.51
Chicago St.WAC5.001.780.0012.02-5.00-1.35
LehighPat5.001.7837.5052.35-1.250.08
Northern IllinoisMAC5.001.7250.0034.500.00-0.53
Arizona St.P120.530.3054.5548.490.05-0.01
Green BayHorz0.230.1875.0077.010.110.10
Southern IllinoisMVC0.480.1854.5544.930.04-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.18100.0082.630.000.12
UCLAP120.000.1866.6754.480.000.02
USCP120.000.1860.0036.410.00-0.05
WashingtonP120.000.18100.0075.440.000.09
Washington St.P120.000.1840.0028.13-0.00-0.08
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1887.5085.480.000.13
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1730.0029.75-0.00-0.07
Tennessee MartinOVC0.480.1766.6764.770.160.05
NJITind0.000.1741.6743.68-0.00-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1736.3650.71-0.000.00
OaklandHorz0.250.1527.2732.45-0.11-0.05
ValparaisoHorz0.230.1581.8273.180.140.07
Youngstown St.Horz0.250.1545.4543.23-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.000.1533.3334.04-0.00-0.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.230.1575.0058.760.110.03
WisconsinB100.250.1590.9188.840.200.11
AuburnSEC0.530.1550.0039.790.00-0.03
VCUA100.250.1472.7375.740.110.07
MaineAE0.360.1411.1120.80-0.28-0.08
Bowling GreenMAC0.230.1275.0067.140.110.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1233.3349.35-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.000.1240.0048.02-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.1260.0057.890.000.02
UtahP120.000.1280.0080.520.000.07
OregonP120.000.1270.0057.440.000.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1277.7872.060.000.05
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1233.3337.22-0.00-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1290.9183.090.000.08
CaliforniaP120.000.1290.9169.030.000.04
BucknellPat0.000.1240.0036.66-0.00-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.000.1233.3328.13-0.00-0.05
NavyPat0.000.1220.0022.16-0.00-0.07
Notre DameACC0.250.1291.6777.120.210.06
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.1233.3340.63-0.00-0.02
IUPUISum0.480.1227.2728.86-0.22-0.05
South DakotaSum0.280.1227.2738.30-0.13-0.03
IndianaB100.000.1281.8263.330.000.03
Murray St.OVC0.480.1260.0065.120.100.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.1162.5058.080.000.02
SyracuseACC0.000.1160.0058.120.000.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.1155.5646.290.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.1170.0062.710.000.03
ToledoMAC0.250.0963.6461.520.070.02
UMKCWAC0.250.0920.0040.84-0.15-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.230.0936.3645.11-0.06-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.230.0955.5652.610.030.00
CharlotteCUSA0.280.0954.5564.070.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0962.5059.050.000.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.280.0933.3345.04-0.09-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0944.4455.37-0.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0928.5727.11-0.00-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.230.0925.0033.40-0.11-0.03
RutgersB100.280.0954.5532.590.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.360.0940.0043.04-0.07-0.01
DukeACC0.280.09100.0087.090.280.06
La SalleA100.000.0954.5552.730.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0954.5552.490.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0963.6442.810.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0966.6773.310.000.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0960.0043.160.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.230.0966.6761.820.080.02
DelawareCAA0.280.080.008.56-0.28-0.07
AmericanPat0.000.0663.6463.240.000.02
ArmyPat0.000.0677.7868.780.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0625.0037.03-0.00-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0630.0041.69-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0616.6733.39-0.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0685.7170.530.000.03
ColgatePat0.000.0620.0042.59-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0675.0066.220.000.02
Holy CrossPat0.000.0657.1453.770.000.00
LafayettePat0.000.0666.6767.650.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0630.0028.65-0.00-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0633.3361.74-0.000.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0633.3343.83-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.250.0612.5026.89-0.19-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0630.0038.57-0.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.230.0675.0058.160.110.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.630.069.0917.12-0.52-0.04
OhioMAC0.000.0642.8637.71-0.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.530.0688.8963.020.410.02
Oral RobertsSum0.530.0640.0044.08-0.11-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.280.0644.4450.60-0.030.00
UMBCAE0.280.0618.1825.30-0.18-0.03
DavidsonA100.000.0688.8977.320.000.03
DaytonA100.230.0680.0069.770.140.02
DuquesneA100.000.0637.5034.06-0.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0663.6465.220.000.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.560.060.009.06-0.56-0.05
KansasB120.000.0690.0070.680.000.02
PortlandWCC0.510.0670.0051.040.200.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0655.5658.650.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0660.0057.700.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0630.0039.59-0.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0630.0043.15-0.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0633.3334.30-0.00-0.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0660.0047.170.00-0.00
George MasonA100.000.0633.3330.21-0.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0028.43-0.00-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0637.5039.65-0.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0637.5050.31-0.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0680.0053.260.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.0690.9190.540.000.05
MercerSC0.000.0644.4444.02-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0666.6767.300.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0680.0067.830.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6735.27-0.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0633.3341.20-0.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0611.1125.48-0.00-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0612.5029.51-0.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0681.8282.250.000.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0636.3648.18-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0640.0041.32-0.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0688.8955.860.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0666.6754.130.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0640.0055.01-0.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0663.6464.880.000.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.060.0011.24-0.00-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0666.6742.600.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0640.0033.80-0.00-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0017.69-0.00-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0640.0049.39-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0670.0064.680.000.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0677.7870.160.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0654.5541.980.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0675.0065.140.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0633.3328.79-0.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0096.290.000.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0638.4644.61-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0681.8266.010.000.02
MichiganB100.000.0650.0040.450.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0650.0047.880.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0670.0052.600.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0640.0032.26-0.00-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.0666.6744.720.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0672.7374.850.000.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0650.0071.260.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0642.8636.81-0.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0636.3648.28-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.000.0637.5032.63-0.00-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0654.5557.570.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0666.6778.020.000.03
Stony BrookAE0.000.0633.3355.24-0.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0663.6456.430.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0056.620.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0660.0071.280.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0055.890.000.00
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0056.150.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0380.0072.200.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0377.7870.890.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.280.0355.5662.150.030.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0078.210.000.02
ColumbiaIvy0.280.0366.6767.930.090.01
DartmouthIvy0.360.0350.0046.690.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0322.2235.90-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.250.0362.5072.070.060.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0345.4549.62-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.360.0337.5052.01-0.090.00
IowaB100.360.0366.6759.420.120.01
LipscombASun0.000.0322.2238.44-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.250.0337.5049.31-0.06-0.00
MontanaBSky0.250.0325.0052.35-0.130.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0337.5056.46-0.000.00
RiderMAAC0.280.0350.0053.250.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0350.0054.170.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.280.0355.5665.210.030.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0350.0043.310.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.250.0320.0040.93-0.15-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.250.0350.0051.710.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.0380.0073.540.000.01
Iowa St.B120.230.0390.0065.480.180.01
IPFWSum0.000.0350.0054.190.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.230.0316.6743.20-0.15-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.280.0320.0025.85-0.17-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.280.0344.4437.40-0.03-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.250.0390.0082.310.200.02
Penn St.B100.280.0391.6755.310.230.00
RiceCUSA0.280.0316.6726.98-0.19-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0360.0033.270.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.230.0372.7375.710.100.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0377.7865.110.000.01
UABCUSA0.250.0330.0036.69-0.10-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0337.5063.95-0.000.01
UCFAmer0.230.0355.5635.900.03-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.250.0354.5548.260.02-0.00
VirginiaACC0.280.03100.0086.080.280.02
VMISC0.000.0333.3338.93-0.00-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.250.0337.5044.33-0.06-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.230.0337.5031.88-0.06-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0318.1837.71-0.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.280.0370.0068.340.110.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0350.0058.070.000.00
DenverSum0.280.0345.4555.13-0.030.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.280.0325.0023.40-0.14-0.02
TexasB120.000.0390.9179.980.000.02
UNLVMWC0.280.0366.6749.560.09-0.00
WoffordSC0.280.0377.7875.550.150.01