live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


DePaul

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:198.0
Current RPI:198
Expected SOS:62
Current SOS:62
Current Record:9-22
Expected Record:9-22
Current Conf Record:3-16
Expected Conf Record:3-16
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:197
Expected OOC SOS:224



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-22198.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for DePaul.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Western Michigan (202.0)MACH69-63W100%0.0
11-17Penn St. (125.0)B10A68-62L0%0.0
11-20South Carolina (65.0)SECN76-61L0%0.0
11-21Florida St. (82.0)ACCN67-83L0%0.0
11-23Norfolk St. (225.0)MEACN82-78W100%0.0
12-2Illinois Chicago (346.0)HorzA55-82W100%0.0
12-5Chicago St. (348.0)WACH96-72W100%0.0
12-9Drake (325.0)MVCA71-74W100%0.0
12-12Arkansas Little Rock (42.0)SBH44-66L0%0.0
12-15Stanford (86.0)P12A79-60L0%0.0
12-19Northwestern (115.0)B10H70-78L0%0.0
12-22George Washington (68.0)A10H82-61W100%0.0
12-30Georgetown (106.0)BEH58-70L0%0.0
1-2Seton Hall (19.0)BEA78-74L0%0.0
1-5Butler (57.0)BEH72-77L0%0.0
1-9Georgetown (106.0)BEA74-63L0%0.0
1-12Xavier (7.0)BEA84-64L0%0.0
1-17Creighton (100.0)BEH80-91L0%0.0
1-20Marquette (110.0)BEA56-57W100%0.0
1-27Butler (57.0)BEA67-53L0%0.0
1-30Xavier (7.0)BEH65-86L0%0.0
2-2Providence (40.0)BEH77-70W100%0.0
2-6Creighton (100.0)BEA88-66L0%0.0
2-9Villanova (4.0)BEH59-86L0%0.0
2-17St. John's (246.0)BEA80-65L0%0.0
2-20Marquette (110.0)BEH60-73L0%0.0
2-25St. John's (246.0)BEH83-75W100%0.0
2-27Providence (40.0)BEA87-66L0%0.0
3-1Villanova (4.0)BEA83-62L0%0.0
3-5Seton Hall (19.0)BEH66-80L0%0.0
3-9Georgetown (106.0)BEN70-53L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

DePaul's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


DePaul's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  DePaul.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DePaulBE26.3326.3327.5227.52-11.84-11.84
GeorgetownBE5.685.6840.0040.00-1.14-1.14
VillanovaBE4.274.2784.3884.382.942.94
Seton HallBE4.254.2574.1974.192.052.05
MarquetteBE4.204.2061.2961.290.950.95
ProvidenceBE4.174.1770.9770.971.751.75
XavierBE4.174.1783.3383.332.782.78
St. John'sBE4.144.1420.6920.69-2.43-2.43
CreightonBE4.124.1253.3353.330.270.27
ButlerBE4.124.1265.5265.521.281.28
NorthwesternB101.691.6961.2961.290.380.38
South CarolinaSEC1.691.6973.3373.330.790.79
Penn St.B101.691.6948.3948.39-0.05-0.05
Chicago St.WAC1.691.693.573.57-1.57-1.57
George WashingtonA101.691.6971.8871.880.740.74
StanfordP121.661.6646.4346.43-0.12-0.12
DrakeMVC1.641.6420.6920.69-0.96-0.96
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.641.6411.1111.11-1.28-1.28
Norfolk St.MEAC1.641.6450.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB1.611.6186.6786.671.181.18
Florida St.ACC1.611.6158.0658.060.260.26
Western MichiganMAC1.611.6137.9337.93-0.39-0.39
RutgersB100.230.2319.3519.35-0.14-0.14
NebraskaB100.200.2047.0647.06-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.180.1867.7467.740.060.06
SyracuseACC0.180.1859.3859.380.030.03
WisconsinB100.170.1762.5062.500.040.04
IllinoisB100.160.1644.1244.12-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.150.1568.7568.750.060.06
IndianaB100.150.1578.1278.120.090.09
IUPUISum0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
MarylandB100.150.1575.0075.000.070.07
Northern IllinoisMAC0.140.1458.6258.620.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.130.1325.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
TennesseeSEC0.130.1344.1244.12-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
MissouriSEC0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
GeorgiaSEC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.120.1221.8821.88-0.07-0.07
Michigan St.B100.120.1285.2985.290.090.09
MassachusettsA100.120.1243.7543.75-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.120.1225.9325.93-0.06-0.06
BryantNEC0.120.1223.3323.33-0.07-0.07
Green BayHorz0.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.110.1129.1729.17-0.04-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
ArizonaP120.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
MinnesotaB100.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
BradleyMVC0.100.1012.9012.90-0.08-0.08
Wichita St.MVC0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Miami FLACC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
PurdueB100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
NJITASun0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
TroySB0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
WagnerNEC0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
Ohio St.B100.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1076.6776.670.050.05
TempleAmer0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.100.1024.2424.24-0.05-0.05
DukeACC0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
RadfordBSth0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
VirginiaACC0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
OaklandHorz0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0980.0080.000.050.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0872.4172.410.040.04
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
UMKCWAC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
ColoradoP120.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
USCP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
OhioMAC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0821.4321.43-0.04-0.04
VMISC0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
AuburnSEC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
DaytonA100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
AkronMAC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
DuquesneA100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
La SalleA100.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0679.3179.310.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
OregonP120.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Oregon St.P120.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
SeattleWAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0618.5218.52-0.04-0.04
UtahP120.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
UCFAmer0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0556.0056.000.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
UMBCAE0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
FloridaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
BelmontOVC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
DavidsonA100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
MaineAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
PennIvy0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
SMUAmer0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
TexasB120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
UCLAP120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
IPFWSum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0382.1482.140.020.02
TulaneAmer0.030.0335.2935.29-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
LipscombASun0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0362.8662.860.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0322.8622.86-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0273.3373.330.010.01