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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


DePaul

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:189.5
Current RPI:120
Expected SOS:60
Current SOS:161
Current Record:5-2
Expected Record:11-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:3-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:5-2
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:186
Expected OOC SOS:268



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1154.00.01%
18-1272.70.03%
17-1387.40.30%
16-14105.20.96%
15-15122.52.77%
14-16139.46.50%
13-17157.913.63%
12-18176.619.88%
11-19195.021.98%
10-20213.418.04%
9-21230.410.34%
8-22246.94.34%
7-23261.01.08%
6-24274.60.12%
5-25280.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for DePaul.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Robert Morris (226.1)NECH78-72W100%0.0
11-17Rutgers (138.5)B10H59-66L0%0.0
11-20Milwaukee (226.2)HorzH77-59W100%0.0
11-23Missouri St. (147.4)MVCH68-66W100%0.0
11-30Drake (308.2)MVCH77-75W100%0.0
12-3Northwestern (49.5)B10A80-64L0%0.0
12-6Lamar (302.6)SlndH80-61W100%0.0
12-10Temple (51.5)AmerN0-025%-8.2
12-14Illinois Chicago (245.9)HorzH0-073%7.3
12-17Chicago St. (275.4)WACH0-089%14.6
12-19Southeast Missouri St. (269.3)OVCH0-081%10.5
12-22Wyoming (151.4)MWCN0-047%-1.0
12-28Villanova (5.1)BEA0-02%-24.1
1-1St. John's (157.6)BEH0-048%-0.7
1-7Seton Hall (72.0)BEA0-015%-12.4
1-10Providence (61.9)BEH0-029%-6.6
1-14Marquette (51.7)BEA0-09%-15.9
1-16St. John's (157.6)BEA0-028%-6.9
1-21Butler (14.3)BEH0-014%-12.9
1-28Creighton (23.8)BEA0-06%-18.7
1-31Georgetown (97.5)BEH0-033%-5.2
2-4Marquette (51.7)BEH0-021%-9.7
2-8Xavier (15.9)BEA0-06%-18.7
2-11Creighton (23.8)BEH0-015%-12.4
2-13Villanova (5.1)BEH0-07%-17.8
2-19Butler (14.3)BEA0-06%-19.2
2-22Georgetown (97.5)BEA0-017%-11.4
2-25Seton Hall (72.0)BEH0-031%-6.1
2-28Providence (61.9)BEA0-014%-12.8
3-4Xavier (15.9)BEH0-015%-12.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

DePaul's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


DePaul's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  DePaul.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DePaulBE28.5226.3360.0029.935.70-10.57
VillanovaBE0.004.23100.0084.000.002.88
Seton HallBE0.004.2375.0052.860.000.24
ButlerBE0.454.23100.0073.730.452.01
GeorgetownBE0.004.2155.5645.730.00-0.36
ProvidenceBE0.004.2177.7858.680.000.73
St. John'sBE0.004.2144.4434.42-0.00-1.31
XavierBE0.004.2187.5069.590.001.65
CreightonBE0.004.20100.0075.620.002.15
MarquetteBE0.004.2077.7862.770.001.07
Missouri St.MVC7.141.8275.0061.003.570.40
NorthwesternB107.141.8171.4364.963.060.54
Chicago St.WAC0.001.7820.0022.50-0.00-0.98
RutgersB107.141.7885.7148.535.10-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.001.7642.8639.06-0.00-0.38
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.001.7542.8645.53-0.00-0.16
DrakeMVC7.141.720.0020.96-7.14-1.00
MilwaukeeHorz7.141.7242.8639.27-1.02-0.37
TempleAmer0.001.7275.0064.470.000.50
LamarSlnd7.141.6750.0041.930.00-0.27
Robert MorrisNEC7.141.6733.3347.01-2.38-0.10
WyomingMWC0.001.6766.6753.750.000.13
WisconsinB100.000.2877.7876.550.000.15
Northern IowaMVC0.000.2533.3352.49-0.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.1837.5025.74-0.00-0.09
UMKCWAC0.600.1855.5649.660.07-0.00
Fresno St.MWC1.110.1857.1443.930.16-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1771.4358.830.000.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1785.7175.250.000.09
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1742.8650.98-0.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.1785.7177.000.000.09
IndianaB100.000.1787.5074.510.000.08
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1687.5082.440.000.11
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.140.0038.78-0.00-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.1457.1453.860.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.360.1437.5038.08-0.09-0.03
IowaB100.000.1444.4438.41-0.00-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.450.1428.5727.38-0.19-0.06
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1416.6739.99-0.00-0.03
NebraskaB100.000.1457.1444.830.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.1433.3352.03-0.000.01
MarylandB100.000.1487.5059.030.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.1466.6746.170.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.450.1475.0056.270.220.02
PurdueB100.000.1477.7877.640.000.07
La SalleA100.000.1357.1456.540.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.1388.8978.430.000.08
Wake ForestACC0.450.1377.7855.180.250.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1220.0022.88-0.00-0.07
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1250.0045.130.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1260.0067.820.000.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1257.1449.420.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1277.7886.650.000.09
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.1212.5030.51-0.00-0.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.1250.0042.770.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1128.5731.07-0.00-0.04
DetroitHorz0.000.110.0021.30-0.00-0.06
Green BayHorz0.000.1137.5048.85-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.1162.5052.060.000.00
Notre DameACC0.450.11100.0076.970.450.06
IllinoisB100.000.1166.6751.140.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1155.5646.770.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.1177.7865.840.000.03
HowardMEAC0.000.1116.6743.53-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1133.3340.37-0.00-0.02
UtahP120.000.1180.0058.220.000.02
VermontAE0.000.1162.5071.400.000.05
Michigan St.B100.000.1160.0058.780.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.1188.8966.920.000.04
Ohio St.B100.000.1177.7862.010.000.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1142.8644.90-0.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.1162.5052.400.000.01
PennIvy0.360.1133.3356.66-0.120.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1112.5026.05-0.00-0.05
SyracuseACC0.000.1162.5062.080.000.03
TulaneAmer0.000.1112.5023.82-0.00-0.06
UCFAmer0.000.1185.7175.800.000.06
WagnerNEC0.000.1128.5752.65-0.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0942.8658.24-0.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.090.0016.33-0.00-0.06
Air ForceMWC0.710.0957.1448.110.10-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0957.1449.640.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.450.0925.0048.70-0.22-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.450.0925.0040.17-0.22-0.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0987.5064.760.000.03
Oral RobertsSum0.000.080.0022.75-0.00-0.05
ElonCAA0.000.0862.5054.660.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.710.0857.1459.020.100.01
BucknellPat0.360.0870.0070.530.140.03
IUPUISum0.000.0833.3351.57-0.000.00
FordhamA100.000.0850.0041.640.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.450.0822.2246.51-0.25-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.450.0871.4355.680.190.01
LehighPat0.360.0837.5061.81-0.090.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0871.4358.170.000.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0862.5062.120.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0842.8645.34-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0650.0064.910.000.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.060.0017.92-0.00-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0675.0069.680.000.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0642.8637.05-0.00-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0620.0042.14-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0057.950.000.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0616.6738.83-0.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0660.0062.420.000.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0657.1457.780.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.510.0685.7153.770.360.00
UTSACUSA0.510.0625.0029.90-0.26-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0633.3336.67-0.00-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.0650.0056.890.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0671.4360.090.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0650.0060.950.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0662.5058.130.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0650.0040.690.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0675.0055.480.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0662.5042.780.00-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0642.8650.57-0.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.710.0650.0045.920.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0640.0041.72-0.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0657.1464.500.000.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.450.060.0025.17-0.45-0.03
AkronMAC0.000.0671.4368.930.000.02
ArizonaP120.000.0677.7870.290.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0655.5637.870.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0642.8643.78-0.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0650.0041.700.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0677.7872.930.000.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0657.1451.810.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0642.8650.82-0.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0620.0021.92-0.00-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.000.0642.8645.85-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0675.0047.990.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0036.38-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0675.0050.980.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0616.6740.32-0.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0675.0048.980.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0628.5737.54-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.06100.0078.180.000.03
StanfordP120.000.0666.6758.600.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0642.8629.20-0.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0628.5723.02-0.00-0.03
AmericanPat0.000.0512.5028.64-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0575.0066.120.000.02
BaylorB120.000.05100.0076.070.000.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0512.5031.01-0.00-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.0550.0042.750.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0557.1429.760.00-0.02
BrownIvy0.000.0550.0043.770.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0525.0043.29-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0571.4354.560.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0566.6761.690.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.0575.0062.450.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.050.0017.16-0.00-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0512.5037.11-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0570.0050.010.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0525.0031.76-0.00-0.02
LafayettePat0.000.0542.8635.40-0.00-0.02
MaineAE0.000.0514.2923.40-0.00-0.03
MissouriSEC0.000.0562.5044.840.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0511.1149.12-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0571.4354.010.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0562.5066.500.000.02
OregonP120.000.0575.0072.800.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0566.6770.400.000.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0544.4438.15-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0566.6766.650.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0557.1433.200.00-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0571.4355.570.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0544.4441.55-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0575.0072.930.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0516.6735.90-0.00-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0340.0054.81-0.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0375.0058.720.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.510.0312.5029.77-0.38-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0325.0042.78-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0328.5746.79-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.510.0325.0023.62-0.26-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.510.0312.5033.18-0.38-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0325.0023.99-0.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0342.8650.33-0.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0055.44-0.000.00
CornellIvy0.000.0328.5730.43-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0342.8645.65-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0050.980.000.00
IonaMAAC0.600.0357.1464.540.090.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0375.0071.330.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0314.2943.08-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0316.6738.87-0.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0377.7871.770.000.01
PacificWCC0.000.0342.8645.98-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0360.0069.260.000.01
South DakotaSum0.600.0350.0046.820.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0385.7169.920.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0325.0027.74-0.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.0342.8636.07-0.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.600.0350.0045.660.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.710.030.0013.32-0.71-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0342.8641.13-0.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0311.1120.27-0.00-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.50-0.00-0.00
USCP120.000.03100.0076.400.000.02
DrexelCAA0.450.0350.0041.460.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.450.0383.3379.920.300.02
HartfordAE0.450.0322.2226.44-0.25-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.450.0362.5060.090.110.01
Miami FLACC0.450.0377.7866.740.250.01
Montana St.BSky0.450.0342.8656.48-0.060.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.450.0325.0041.19-0.22-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.450.0325.0035.75-0.22-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.450.0333.3331.35-0.15-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0383.3371.500.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0337.5043.19-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.450.0344.4453.29-0.050.00
DaytonA100.000.0371.4373.270.000.01
DuquesneA100.360.0340.0039.19-0.07-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0388.8967.470.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0355.5642.150.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.360.0314.2942.77-0.26-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0375.0075.180.000.01
Kansas St.B120.360.0388.8956.710.280.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0322.2232.01-0.00-0.01
NJITASun0.000.0344.4451.58-0.000.00
RichmondA100.360.0350.0048.500.00-0.00
TexasB120.450.0350.0038.730.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.360.0342.8653.80-0.050.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0350.0037.700.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0385.7183.250.000.02
YaleIvy0.000.0342.8663.63-0.000.01