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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


DePaul

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:154.0
Current RPI:154
Expected SOS:41
Current SOS:41
Current Record:12-21
Expected Record:12-21
Current Conf Record:4-16
Expected Conf Record:4-16
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:127
Expected OOC SOS:126



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-21154.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for DePaul.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Grambling St. (348.0)SWACH96-58W100%0.0
11-13Southern Miss (33.0)CUSAH68-75L0%0.0
11-16Wright St. (173.0)HorzH81-72W100%0.0
11-19Milwaukee (131.0)HorzA71-80W100%0.0
11-25Wichita St. (4.0)MVCN90-72L0%0.0
11-26Texas (36.0)B12N59-77L0%0.0
12-1Oregon St. (100.0)P12H93-81W100%0.0
12-6Arizona St. (44.0)P12H56-78L0%0.0
12-12Florida Atlantic (270.0)CUSAH81-70W100%0.0
12-15Chicago St. (259.0)WACH77-70W100%0.0
12-18Houston Baptist (341.0)SlndH78-58W100%0.0
12-22Illinois St. (134.0)MVCA69-64L0%0.0
12-27Northwestern (123.0)B10A56-57W100%0.0
12-31Georgetown (69.0)BEA61-54L0%0.0
1-4Marquette (92.0)BEA66-56L0%0.0
1-7Creighton (10.0)BEH62-81L0%0.0
1-9Butler (150.0)BEA94-99W100%0.0
1-14St. John's (67.0)BEH77-75W100%0.0
1-18Villanova (5.0)BEA88-62L0%0.0
1-20Xavier (47.0)BEH74-84L0%0.0
1-25Seton Hall (128.0)BEA86-69L0%0.0
2-1Providence (40.0)BEH72-77L0%0.0
2-3Georgetown (69.0)BEH59-71L0%0.0
2-7Creighton (10.0)BEA78-66L0%0.0
2-12Villanova (5.0)BEH62-87L0%0.0
2-15Providence (40.0)BEA84-61L0%0.0
2-19Xavier (47.0)BEA83-64L0%0.0
2-22Marquette (92.0)BEH94-96L0%0.0
2-25Seton Hall (128.0)BEH65-60W100%0.0
3-2St. John's (67.0)BEA72-64L0%0.0
3-6Butler (150.0)BEH46-79L0%0.0
3-12Georgetown (69.0)BEN56-60W100%0.0
3-13Creighton (10.0)BEN84-62L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

DePaul's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


DePaul's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  DePaul.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DePaulBE26.4026.4032.2632.26-9.37-9.37
CreightonBE5.495.4976.6776.672.932.93
GeorgetownBE5.365.3653.5753.570.380.38
ProvidenceBE4.044.0465.6265.621.261.26
Seton HallBE4.034.0350.0050.000.000.00
XavierBE3.993.9960.0060.000.800.80
MarquetteBE3.983.9850.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE3.923.9263.3363.331.051.05
VillanovaBE3.923.9286.6786.672.882.88
ButlerBE3.923.9242.8642.86-0.56-0.56
Arizona St.P121.711.7164.5264.520.500.50
Wright St.Horz1.691.6958.0658.060.270.27
Chicago St.WAC1.611.6137.9337.93-0.39-0.39
Illinois St.MVC1.611.6148.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Houston BaptistSlnd1.591.5915.3815.38-1.10-1.10
Grambling St.SWAC1.591.5915.3815.38-1.10-1.10
MilwaukeeHorz1.591.5962.5062.500.400.40
Southern MissCUSA1.571.5780.0080.000.940.94
Wichita St.MVC1.571.57100.00100.001.571.57
Oregon St.P121.561.5653.3353.330.100.10
TexasB121.541.5468.7568.750.580.58
NorthwesternB101.541.5443.7543.75-0.19-0.19
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.541.5427.5927.59-0.69-0.69
EvansvilleMVC0.250.2538.7138.71-0.06-0.06
OregonP120.190.1971.8871.880.080.08
Missouri St.MVC0.170.1761.2961.290.040.04
BradleyMVC0.170.1737.5037.50-0.04-0.04
USCP120.170.1732.2632.26-0.06-0.06
KansasB120.170.1772.7372.730.080.08
UMKCWAC0.170.1734.4834.48-0.05-0.05
Michigan St.B100.170.1776.4776.470.090.09
IowaB100.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
WisconsinB100.160.1678.7978.790.090.09
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.150.1537.9337.93-0.04-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.150.1532.1432.14-0.05-0.05
FIUCUSA0.150.1546.4346.43-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
TulsaCUSA0.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
DetroitHorz0.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Green BayHorz0.140.1477.7877.780.080.08
CaliforniaP120.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Northern IowaMVC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
Kansas St.B120.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
StanfordP120.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.120.1263.3363.330.030.03
George WashingtonA100.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
UICHorz0.120.1213.7913.79-0.08-0.08
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
San Diego St.MWC0.120.1287.1087.100.090.09
ValparaisoHorz0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
NebraskaB100.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
RiceCUSA0.100.1017.8617.86-0.06-0.06
South AlabamaSB0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
ElonSC0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
VCUA100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Ball St.MAC0.100.1010.7110.71-0.08-0.08
Texas TechB120.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
PurdueB100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.100.1088.2488.240.070.07
UCLAP120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
NJITind0.100.1036.0036.00-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.090.0984.3884.380.070.07
MarylandACC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
La SalleA100.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Oral RobertsSlnd0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
TulaneCUSA0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
TCUB120.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
ColgatePat0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
LipscombASun0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
WashingtonP120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
ColoradoP120.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
TowsonCAA0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
UtahP120.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
IndianaB100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.070.0710.3410.34-0.06-0.06
Ohio St.B100.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
Penn St.B100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
VermontAE0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
BrownIvy0.070.0751.8551.850.000.00
MercerASun0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0624.0024.00-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0593.1093.100.040.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0546.1546.15-0.00-0.00
IdahoWAC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.050.0570.3770.370.020.02
SeattleWAC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckySB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
FordhamA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
New HampshireAE0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
PennIvy0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
DavidsonSC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.040.0444.8344.83-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.040.0421.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.040.0431.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.040.0448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.040.0470.5970.590.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.040.0431.0331.03-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.040.0417.8617.86-0.03-0.03
MaristMAAC0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.040.0475.0075.000.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.040.0421.2121.21-0.03-0.03
RutgersAmer0.040.0434.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.040.0445.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.040.0429.0329.03-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.040.0451.8551.850.000.00
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
DukeACC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0386.2186.210.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
StetsonASun0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
George MasonA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
LouisvilleAmer0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0278.5778.570.010.01
PortlandWCC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
UMBCAE0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
VMIBSth0.020.0255.5655.560.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0283.8783.870.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01