live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


DePaul

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:197.0
Current RPI:197
Expected SOS:82
Current SOS:82
Current Record:12-20
Expected Record:12-20
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-2
Current OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:276
Expected OOC SOS:296



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-20197.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for DePaul.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Illinois Chicago (297.0)HorzH72-71W100%0.0
11-18Drake (269.0)MVCH80-62W100%0.0
11-26Lehigh (175.0)PatH74-86L0%0.0
11-30Stanford (59.0)P12H87-72W100%0.0
12-2Northern Illinois (185.0)MACH78-67W100%0.0
12-4Chicago St. (333.0)WACA60-84W100%0.0
12-7Milwaukee (206.0)HorzH83-61W100%0.0
12-11George Washington (84.0)A10A81-68L0%0.0
12-14Illinois St. (62.0)MVCH72-78L0%0.0
12-18Oregon St. (133.0)P12A90-59L0%0.0
12-22Colorado (116.0)P12N82-68L0%0.0
12-23Ohio (231.0)MACN78-99L0%0.0
12-25Loyola Marymount (268.0)WCCN72-69L0%0.0
12-31Marquette (147.0)BEH61-58W100%0.0
1-3Xavier (30.0)BEH71-68W100%0.0
1-7Creighton (151.0)BEA60-70W100%0.0
1-10Villanova (3.0)BEA81-64L0%0.0
1-13Georgetown (25.0)BEH72-78L0%0.0
1-18St. John's (44.0)BEH71-67W100%0.0
1-22Seton Hall (97.0)BEA60-64W100%0.0
1-24Xavier (30.0)BEA89-76L0%0.0
1-29Providence (22.0)BEA83-72L0%0.0
1-31Villanova (3.0)BEH55-68L0%0.0
2-3Seton Hall (97.0)BEH75-62W100%0.0
2-7Butler (31.0)BEA83-73L0%0.0
2-11St. John's (44.0)BEA86-78L0%0.0
2-18Providence (22.0)BEH57-84L0%0.0
2-21Georgetown (25.0)BEA68-63L0%0.0
2-24Creighton (151.0)BEH62-75L0%0.0
2-28Butler (31.0)BEH53-67L0%0.0
3-7Marquette (147.0)BEA58-48L0%0.0
3-11Creighton (151.0)BEN63-78L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

DePaul's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


DePaul's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  DePaul.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DePaulBE26.3226.3233.3333.33-8.77-8.77
CreightonBE5.545.5440.0040.00-1.11-1.11
VillanovaBE4.124.1293.7593.753.613.61
GeorgetownBE4.114.1165.5265.521.271.27
XavierBE4.104.1062.5062.501.021.02
ProvidenceBE4.044.0464.5264.521.171.17
ButlerBE4.044.0466.6766.671.351.35
MarquetteBE4.044.0440.0040.00-0.81-0.81
Seton HallBE4.044.0455.1755.170.420.42
St. John'sBE3.993.9965.5265.521.241.24
Illinois St.MVC1.661.6661.2961.290.380.38
George WashingtonA101.661.6662.5062.500.420.42
ColoradoP121.661.6645.1645.16-0.16-0.16
StanfordP121.641.6461.2961.290.370.37
Oregon St.P121.641.6451.7251.720.060.06
Chicago St.WAC1.631.6317.8617.86-1.05-1.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.621.6225.8125.81-0.78-0.78
OhioMAC1.611.6131.0331.03-0.61-0.61
DrakeMVC1.611.6127.5927.59-0.72-0.72
MilwaukeeHorz1.611.6144.4444.44-0.18-0.18
LehighPat1.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC1.591.5946.4346.43-0.11-0.11
Loyola MarymountWCC1.591.5920.6920.69-0.93-0.93
Arizona St.P120.280.2853.1253.120.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.230.2387.1087.100.170.17
Green BayHorz0.180.1873.3373.330.080.08
USCP120.180.1837.5037.50-0.04-0.04
WashingtonP120.170.1751.6151.610.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.170.1768.9768.970.070.07
Bowling GreenMAC0.160.1666.6766.670.050.05
OaklandHorz0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.150.1534.3834.38-0.05-0.05
BradleyMVC0.150.1525.0025.00-0.08-0.08
EvansvilleMVC0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
ArizonaP120.150.1591.1891.180.120.12
Indiana St.MVC0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
Washington St.P120.150.1541.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.150.1557.1457.140.020.02
NJITind0.150.1556.0056.000.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.130.1383.3383.330.090.09
Wright St.Horz0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
WisconsinB100.130.1391.1891.180.100.10
MaineAE0.130.1310.0010.00-0.10-0.10
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.130.1390.9190.910.100.10
OregonP120.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
AuburnSEC0.120.1241.1841.18-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
South DakotaSum0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
VCUA100.120.1274.2974.290.060.06
ToledoMAC0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
AkronMAC0.110.1158.8258.820.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.110.1171.4371.430.050.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
DetroitHorz0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Loyola MDPat0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.100.1093.9493.940.090.09
NavyPat0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
IUPUISum0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
BucknellPat0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
CaliforniaP120.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
IndianaB100.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.100.1083.3383.330.060.06
SyracuseACC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.090.0970.0070.000.040.04
UMKCWAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
SeattleWAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
BuffaloMAC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
North DakotaBSky0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.070.0787.8887.880.060.06
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
RutgersB100.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0765.5265.520.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
YaleIvy0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.076.906.90-0.06-0.06
DuquesneA100.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0752.9452.940.000.00
MississippiSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0775.8675.860.040.04
North TexasCUSA0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
DelawareCAA0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
ArmyPat0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0518.7518.75-0.03-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
UMBCAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
FloridaSEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
MercerSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
NevadaMWC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
St. BonaventureA100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
DaytonA100.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
AlbanyAE0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
George MasonA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
Miami FLACC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0586.6786.670.030.03
TempleAmer0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0281.2581.250.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
DenverSum0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
IPFWSum0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
SMUAmer0.020.0281.2581.250.020.02
TexasB120.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
UABCUSA0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
UCFAmer0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.020.0281.2581.250.020.02
WyomingMWC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.020.0252.9452.940.000.00
Saint LouisA100.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.020.0290.6290.620.020.02
VMISC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01