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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


DePaul

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:239.0
Current RPI:239
Expected SOS:76
Current SOS:76
Current Record:9-23
Expected Record:9-23
Current Conf Record:2-17
Expected Conf Record:2-17
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-2
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:282
Expected OOC SOS:311



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-23239.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for DePaul.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Robert Morris (237.0)NECH78-72W100%0.0
11-17Rutgers (177.0)B10H59-66L0%0.0
11-20Milwaukee (256.0)HorzH77-59W100%0.0
11-23Missouri St. (210.0)MVCH68-66W100%0.0
11-30Drake (314.0)MVCH77-75W100%0.0
12-3Northwestern (50.0)B10A80-64L0%0.0
12-6Lamar (232.0)SlndH80-61W100%0.0
12-10Temple (137.0)AmerN74-65L0%0.0
12-14Illinois Chicago (249.0)HorzH75-80L0%0.0
12-17Chicago St. (318.0)WACH109-61W100%0.0
12-19Southeast Missouri St. (274.0)OVCH81-78W100%0.0
12-22Wyoming (152.0)MWCN58-72L0%0.0
12-23Missouri St. (210.0)MVCN69-58L0%0.0
12-28Villanova (1.0)BEA68-65L0%0.0
1-1St. John's (140.0)BEH73-79L0%0.0
1-7Seton Hall (43.0)BEA87-56L0%0.0
1-10Providence (56.0)BEH64-63W100%0.0
1-14Marquette (60.0)BEA83-58L0%0.0
1-16St. John's (140.0)BEA78-68L0%0.0
1-21Butler (15.0)BEH69-70L0%0.0
1-28Creighton (26.0)BEA83-66L0%0.0
1-31Georgetown (106.0)BEH73-76L0%0.0
2-4Marquette (60.0)BEH79-92L0%0.0
2-8Xavier (37.0)BEA72-61L0%0.0
2-11Creighton (26.0)BEH58-93L0%0.0
2-13Villanova (1.0)BEH62-75L0%0.0
2-19Butler (15.0)BEA82-66L0%0.0
2-22Georgetown (106.0)BEA65-67W100%0.0
2-25Seton Hall (43.0)BEH79-82L0%0.0
2-28Providence (56.0)BEA73-64L0%0.0
3-4Xavier (37.0)BEH65-79L0%0.0
3-8Xavier (37.0)BEN75-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

DePaul's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


DePaul's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  DePaul.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DePaulBE26.3626.3620.9520.95-15.32-15.32
XavierBE5.565.5658.0658.060.900.90
VillanovaBE4.114.1190.6290.623.343.34
CreightonBE4.114.1170.9770.971.721.72
Seton HallBE4.064.0663.3363.331.081.08
St. John'sBE4.044.0438.7138.71-0.91-0.91
ButlerBE4.034.0372.4172.411.811.81
GeorgetownBE3.993.9943.3343.33-0.53-0.53
ProvidenceBE3.993.9963.3363.331.061.06
MarquetteBE3.993.9958.6258.620.690.69
Missouri St.MVC3.263.2650.0050.000.000.00
NorthwesternB101.711.7166.6766.670.570.57
Southeast Missouri St.OVC1.691.6943.3343.33-0.22-0.22
Chicago St.WAC1.681.6810.7110.71-1.32-1.32
RutgersB101.681.6841.9441.94-0.27-0.27
DrakeMVC1.661.6621.4321.43-0.95-0.95
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.661.6640.0040.00-0.33-0.33
MilwaukeeHorz1.641.6430.3030.30-0.65-0.65
TempleAmer1.611.6148.3948.39-0.05-0.05
LamarSlnd1.561.5653.5753.570.110.11
Robert MorrisNEC1.561.5643.7543.75-0.20-0.20
WyomingMWC1.561.5651.7251.720.050.05
Northern IowaMVC0.360.3644.8344.83-0.04-0.04
WisconsinB100.270.2773.5373.530.130.13
BradleyMVC0.230.2337.5037.50-0.06-0.06
Indiana St.MVC0.200.2033.3333.33-0.07-0.07
Wichita St.MVC0.200.2087.8887.880.150.15
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.200.2053.3353.330.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.200.2074.1974.190.090.09
CincinnatiAmer0.170.1785.2985.290.120.12
Fresno St.MWC0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
UMKCWAC0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.150.1581.2581.250.090.09
Southern IllinoisMVC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
OaklandHorz0.150.1573.3373.330.070.07
IndianaB100.150.1554.5554.550.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
MarylandB100.140.1474.1974.190.070.07
BuffaloMAC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Green BayHorz0.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
IowaB100.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
MemphisAmer0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Ohio St.B100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.120.1220.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
DetroitHorz0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
UtahP120.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
La SalleA100.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Penn St.B100.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.120.1260.7160.710.030.03
NebraskaB100.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.110.1124.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.1017.8617.86-0.06-0.06
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
HowardMEAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
VermontAE0.100.1084.8584.850.070.07
MichiganB100.100.1068.5768.570.040.04
St. Francis PANEC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.1026.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.100.1021.4321.43-0.05-0.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1010.0010.00-0.08-0.08
SyracuseACC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
TulaneAmer0.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
WagnerNEC0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Notre DameACC0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
IllinoisB100.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
UCFAmer0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Michigan St.B100.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
MinnesotaB100.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
PennIvy0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0844.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
MontanaBSky0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
CaliforniaP120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
USCP120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
BucknellPat0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
ElonCAA0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
IUPUISum0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
FordhamA100.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
ClemsonACC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
ColoradoP120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
MissouriSEC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0536.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.030.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
SMUAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
StanfordP120.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Washington St.P120.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
LafayettePat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
PacificWCC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
George WashingtonA100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
HartfordAE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
TulsaAmer0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
YaleIvy0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
DuquesneA100.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
RichmondA100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
TowsonCAA0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
DaytonA100.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
TexasB120.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00