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Through games of Feb 12, 2016.


DePaul

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:168.3
Current RPI:151
Expected SOS:52
Current SOS:33
Current Record:8-16
Expected Record:10-20
Current Conf Record:2-10
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:191
Expected OOC SOS:215



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-17127.90.90%
12-18143.49.09%
11-19157.528.24%
10-20171.237.33%
9-21184.920.68%
8-22198.03.75%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for DePaul.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Western Michigan (218.5)MACH69-63W100%0.0
11-17Penn St. (131.2)B10A68-62L0%0.0
11-20South Carolina (39.1)SECN76-61L0%0.0
11-21Florida St. (50.5)ACCN67-83L0%0.0
11-23Norfolk St. (206.4)MEACN82-78W100%0.0
12-2Illinois Chicago (345.3)HorzA55-82W100%0.0
12-5Chicago St. (344.4)WACH96-72W100%0.0
12-9Drake (302.7)MVCA71-74W100%0.0
12-12Arkansas Little Rock (55.7)SBH44-66L0%0.0
12-15Stanford (97.6)P12A79-60L0%0.0
12-19Northwestern (120.6)B10H70-78L0%0.0
12-22George Washington (55.7)A10H82-61W100%0.0
12-30Georgetown (70.4)BEH58-70L0%0.0
1-2Seton Hall (55.5)BEA78-74L0%0.0
1-5Butler (47.7)BEH72-77L0%0.0
1-9Georgetown (70.4)BEA74-63L0%0.0
1-12Xavier (9.7)BEA84-64L0%0.0
1-17Creighton (78.4)BEH80-91L0%0.0
1-20Marquette (117.6)BEA56-57W100%0.0
1-27Butler (47.7)BEA67-53L0%0.0
1-30Xavier (9.7)BEH65-86L0%0.0
2-2Providence (51.1)BEH77-70W100%0.0
2-6Creighton (78.4)BEA88-66L0%0.0
2-9Villanova (3.4)BEH59-86L0%0.0
2-17St. John's (232.9)BEA0-056%1.6
2-20Marquette (117.6)BEH0-045%-1.3
2-25St. John's (232.9)BEH0-078%8.2
2-27Providence (51.1)BEA0-013%-12.0
3-1Villanova (3.4)BEA0-02%-22.6
3-5Seton Hall (55.5)BEH0-027%-6.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

DePaul's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


DePaul's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  DePaul.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DePaulBE26.4026.3232.2032.76-9.40-9.07
MarquetteBE2.694.2466.6759.990.900.85
VillanovaBE2.774.2486.9686.012.053.05
St. John'sBE0.854.2325.0022.73-0.43-2.31
Seton HallBE2.764.2369.5766.761.081.42
CreightonBE4.724.2160.8759.461.030.80
GeorgetownBE4.684.2152.1749.610.20-0.03
ProvidenceBE2.724.2175.0070.921.361.76
ButlerBE4.634.2068.1866.771.681.41
XavierBE4.634.2086.3680.553.372.57
South CarolinaSEC2.131.7586.3679.761.551.04
NorthwesternB102.171.7562.5060.830.540.38
George WashingtonA102.171.7578.2674.381.230.85
Chicago St.WAC2.171.754.557.99-1.97-1.47
Penn St.B102.171.7547.8344.99-0.09-0.18
StanfordP122.131.7245.0042.00-0.21-0.28
DrakeMVC2.131.7021.7424.11-1.21-0.88
Illinois ChicagoHorz2.131.7010.0011.08-1.70-1.32
Norfolk St.MEAC2.131.6945.4552.48-0.190.08
Arkansas Little RockSB2.081.6785.7183.681.491.12
Florida St.ACC2.081.6765.2262.060.630.40
Western MichiganMAC2.081.6733.3333.85-0.69-0.54
RutgersB100.170.2521.7420.33-0.10-0.15
NebraskaB100.170.2252.0050.770.010.00
IowaB100.210.1979.1778.890.120.11
IllinoisB100.140.1745.8344.06-0.01-0.02
Arizona St.P120.170.1756.0053.630.020.01
CincinnatiAmer0.260.1772.0071.570.120.07
SyracuseACC0.130.1668.0064.070.050.05
IndianaB100.170.1680.0075.690.100.08
IUPUISum0.210.1638.4638.50-0.05-0.04
WisconsinB100.210.1662.5056.990.050.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.180.1531.8235.12-0.07-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.180.1445.8343.78-0.01-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.220.1450.0049.490.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.130.1472.0073.080.060.06
AlabamaSEC0.220.1460.8755.980.050.02
MissouriSEC0.170.1433.3330.27-0.06-0.05
TennesseeSEC0.180.1450.0048.120.00-0.01
MichiganB100.170.1470.8366.750.070.05
MarylandB100.210.1387.5083.680.160.09
MassachusettsA100.170.1343.4842.42-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.130.1380.0081.550.080.08
Green BayHorz0.140.1256.5257.690.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.140.1260.0057.680.030.02
Wright St.Horz0.190.1254.1753.810.020.01
Western IllinoisSum0.180.1131.5832.03-0.07-0.04
ArizonaP120.090.1180.0078.730.050.07
BradleyMVC0.090.1112.0011.95-0.07-0.09
Missouri St.MVC0.130.1137.5037.41-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.140.1122.7324.37-0.08-0.06
Wichita St.MVC0.130.1173.9176.700.060.06
VanderbiltSEC0.090.1158.3359.970.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.1114.2920.63-0.09-0.07
GeorgiaSEC0.090.1159.0955.160.020.01
Miami FLACC0.130.1182.6177.600.080.06
WagnerNEC0.040.1160.8762.520.010.03
MinnesotaB100.170.1125.0027.25-0.09-0.05
South FloridaAmer0.130.1120.0019.72-0.08-0.07
NJITASun0.040.1156.0055.640.010.01
PurdueB100.130.1180.0077.900.080.06
TempleAmer0.090.1165.2262.360.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.130.1129.1726.68-0.05-0.05
VirginiaACC0.130.1183.3378.460.090.06
BrownIvy0.120.1130.0030.54-0.05-0.04
BryantNEC0.120.1124.0024.92-0.06-0.05
OklahomaB120.130.1186.9682.620.090.07
OaklandHorz0.090.0965.3865.500.030.03
ValparaisoHorz0.140.0982.6183.030.090.06
Illinois St.MVC0.140.0956.0054.080.020.01
UMKCWAC0.090.0928.5732.73-0.04-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.140.0960.8757.170.030.01
ColoradoP120.140.0970.8365.570.060.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0950.0045.860.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.090.0930.0031.18-0.04-0.03
USCP120.090.0975.0071.140.040.04
OhioMAC0.140.0965.2263.630.040.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0840.0043.21-0.02-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.090.0865.2260.710.030.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.140.0845.4549.06-0.01-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.130.0834.7832.89-0.04-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.130.0845.4546.07-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.130.0839.1335.44-0.03-0.02
ClemsonACC0.130.0858.3358.410.020.01
MississippiSEC0.090.0862.5058.940.020.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0843.4843.76-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.130.0841.6739.90-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.090.0882.6181.130.060.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.0829.1733.75-0.05-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.130.0877.2773.930.070.04
DaytonA100.130.0887.5083.730.100.06
FordhamA100.040.0852.3850.690.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.0843.4844.24-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.130.0816.6719.49-0.09-0.05
VMISC0.130.0819.0519.67-0.08-0.05
DukeACC0.080.0875.0071.810.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.040.0854.1751.980.000.00
LSUSEC0.090.0862.5059.070.020.01
VCUA100.090.0870.8371.030.040.03
DuquesneA100.090.0860.8756.270.020.01
La SalleA100.040.0819.0520.30-0.03-0.05
Ohio St.B100.130.0860.0055.570.030.01
RadfordBSth0.130.0852.1754.090.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.090.0856.0055.750.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0883.3381.270.060.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.0621.7422.78-0.06-0.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0645.4543.88-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0660.8762.470.010.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0630.4332.24-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0666.6767.660.030.02
CaliforniaP120.100.0666.6764.780.030.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0683.3382.090.030.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0665.2268.610.010.02
OregonP120.050.0679.1777.220.030.03
Oregon St.P120.100.0663.6458.770.030.01
SeattleWAC0.090.0645.4543.98-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0614.2915.47-0.03-0.04
UtahP120.100.0670.8368.530.040.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0633.3334.95-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.090.0650.0044.640.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0650.0052.940.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0627.2727.81-0.04-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0625.0028.14-0.02-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0640.9138.83-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0623.8129.52-0.05-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0647.6249.39-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0642.8641.32-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0655.0053.660.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0659.0961.290.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0636.3638.95-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0660.0062.260.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.069.5212.09-0.07-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0656.0055.450.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.090.0636.3636.29-0.03-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.040.0673.0872.610.020.03
Texas St.SB0.050.0640.0038.87-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0660.8762.070.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0668.1871.340.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0619.0525.89-0.00-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0647.8348.57-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.090.0666.6764.730.030.02
FloridaSEC0.040.0666.6766.320.010.02
HofstraCAA0.090.0666.6766.780.030.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0655.5652.480.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.040.0647.8351.93-0.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0623.0823.85-0.00-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0650.0048.970.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.090.0614.2914.92-0.06-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0640.0043.49-0.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.090.0630.4329.49-0.03-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.0623.0825.89-0.00-0.03
DrexelCAA0.090.0513.0416.41-0.07-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.090.0583.3378.390.060.03
Virginia TechACC0.040.0552.0048.910.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.040.0568.0066.640.010.02
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0537.5042.32-0.02-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0570.8370.130.030.02
DavidsonA100.040.0561.9058.180.010.01
DelawareCAA0.040.0525.0024.91-0.02-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.040.0560.8760.240.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.040.0552.1753.740.000.00
George MasonA100.040.0533.3333.62-0.01-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.040.0515.0018.12-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.040.0524.0024.55-0.02-0.03
HarvardIvy0.040.0538.1039.12-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.040.0550.0054.220.000.00
MaineAE0.040.0532.0031.17-0.01-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0580.7781.890.050.03
North TexasCUSA0.080.0531.8232.47-0.03-0.02
PennIvy0.040.0536.8437.30-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.040.0523.8125.48-0.02-0.03
RichmondA100.040.0556.5255.820.010.01
RiderMAAC0.040.0538.4641.36-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.040.0523.8122.85-0.02-0.03
StetsonASun0.040.0522.7327.37-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0545.4554.18-0.010.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0562.5063.450.020.01
UTSACUSA0.080.0513.0412.96-0.06-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0352.1749.150.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0328.5733.29-0.02-0.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0370.8367.960.020.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0324.0024.16-0.02-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0340.0045.19-0.01-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0381.8281.780.030.02
SMUAmer0.050.0386.9682.930.040.02
TexasB120.050.0366.6762.200.020.01
UCLAP120.000.0354.1752.980.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.0362.5060.140.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0334.7831.64-0.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.040.0335.0034.87-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0331.8236.13-0.02-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0354.1754.420.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.039.0912.25-0.00-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0341.6739.50-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0325.0025.09-0.02-0.01
IdahoBSky0.050.0356.5255.330.010.00
IPFWSum0.050.0370.8368.650.020.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0372.0071.330.020.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0334.7836.54-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.050.0366.6767.110.020.01
NevadaMWC0.040.0357.1455.350.010.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0329.1733.08-0.02-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0325.0033.24-0.02-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0348.0048.59-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0358.3363.160.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.040.0358.3360.910.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0373.6875.880.020.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0330.4328.20-0.02-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0369.5770.090.020.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0338.1037.68-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0352.1754.140.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0372.2275.710.020.01
Texas TechB120.050.0360.8755.310.010.00
TulaneAmer0.040.0336.0034.84-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0369.5770.020.020.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0354.1754.210.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.040.0366.6769.760.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0326.0927.89-0.02-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0375.0072.620.000.01
LipscombASun0.050.0328.0030.50-0.02-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.040.0379.1776.000.030.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0358.3359.310.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.040.0318.1821.06-0.03-0.02
Notre DameACC0.000.0370.8367.910.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0341.6742.39-0.01-0.00
PittsburghACC0.040.0372.7367.600.020.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.040.0314.2924.87-0.03-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0375.0075.350.020.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0331.8234.54-0.02-0.01
ArmyPat0.040.0354.1754.290.000.00
BucknellPat0.040.0352.1754.970.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.040.0342.3144.49-0.01-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.040.0368.1865.570.020.01
FairfieldMAAC0.040.0354.1754.100.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.040.0343.4845.20-0.01-0.00
LafayettePat0.040.0320.8321.68-0.03-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.040.0333.3335.19-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.040.0320.0022.24-0.02-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.040.0326.3232.42-0.02-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.040.0333.3336.30-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.040.0334.7832.39-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0372.7370.390.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.040.0337.5037.68-0.01-0.01