live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Nov 21, 2014.


DePaul

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:180.2
Current RPI:123
Expected SOS:67
Current SOS:236
Current Record:2-0
Expected Record:11-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-1
Current OOC Record:2-0
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:188
Expected OOC SOS:202



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-931.00.01%
19-1037.00.03%
18-1158.40.15%
17-1271.20.69%
16-1387.31.75%
15-14104.13.33%
14-15122.86.92%
13-16142.010.83%
12-17160.815.30%
11-18179.617.79%
10-19198.216.82%
9-20216.813.00%
8-21234.87.77%
7-22250.63.73%
6-23263.61.27%
5-24284.00.53%
4-25297.00.06%
3-26315.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for DePaul.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Illinois Chicago (269.4)HorzH72-71W100%0.0
11-18Drake (256.1)MVCH80-62W100%0.0
11-26Lehigh (231.8)PatH0-074%7.7
11-30Stanford (36.8)P12H0-026%-7.7
12-2Northern Illinois (214.8)MACH0-073%7.3
12-4Chicago St. (288.2)WACA0-068%5.6
12-7Milwaukee (265.7)HorzH0-073%7.3
12-11George Washington (35.5)A10A0-08%-16.5
12-14Illinois St. (121.4)MVCH0-053%1.0
12-18Oregon St. (158.5)P12A0-030%-6.4
12-22Colorado (47.7)P12N0-019%-10.7
12-31Marquette (105.8)BEH0-041%-2.6
1-3Xavier (14.9)BEH0-019%-10.3
1-7Creighton (101.0)BEA0-022%-9.2
1-10Villanova (53.5)BEA0-013%-13.8
1-13Georgetown (46.3)BEH0-030%-6.3
1-18St. John's (111.7)BEH0-044%-1.8
1-22Seton Hall (78.6)BEA0-019%-10.7
1-24Xavier (14.9)BEA0-07%-17.5
1-27Providence (45.4)BEA0-014%-13.2
1-31Villanova (53.5)BEH0-029%-6.6
2-3Seton Hall (78.6)BEH0-038%-3.5
2-7Butler (106.7)BEA0-022%-9.2
2-11St. John's (111.7)BEA0-023%-9.0
2-18Providence (45.4)BEH0-031%-6.0
2-21Georgetown (46.3)BEA0-013%-13.4
2-24Creighton (101.0)BEH0-043%-2.0
2-28Butler (106.7)BEH0-043%-2.0
3-7Marquette (105.8)BEA0-021%-9.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

DePaul's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


DePaul's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  DePaul.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DePaulBE35.4226.41100.0033.3935.42-8.77
CreightonBE0.004.44100.0055.000.000.44
VillanovaBE0.004.44100.0066.520.001.47
Seton HallBE0.004.43100.0056.490.000.57
ProvidenceBE0.004.41100.0061.630.001.03
ButlerBE0.004.40100.0053.210.000.28
St. John'sBE0.004.40100.0051.220.000.11
XavierBE0.004.40100.0075.670.002.26
MarquetteBE0.004.4050.0053.120.000.27
GeorgetownBE0.004.39100.0063.840.001.22
Illinois ChicagoHorz25.001.7950.0037.610.00-0.44
DrakeMVC25.001.790.0029.85-25.00-0.72
George WashingtonA100.001.7966.6776.860.000.96
StanfordP120.001.79100.0068.090.000.65
ColoradoP120.001.78100.0067.940.000.64
Oregon St.P120.001.78100.0049.330.00-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.001.7850.0054.880.000.17
MilwaukeeHorz0.001.780.0033.89-0.00-0.57
Chicago St.WAC0.001.780.0027.00-0.00-0.82
LehighPat0.001.780.0036.05-0.00-0.50
Northern IllinoisMAC0.001.72100.0046.210.00-0.13
Arizona St.P120.000.31100.0058.420.000.05
Green BayHorz0.000.190.0065.86-0.000.06
Wichita St.MVC0.000.18100.0084.100.000.13
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1833.3351.38-0.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1850.0051.340.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1850.0035.880.00-0.05
ArizonaP120.000.18100.0068.970.000.07
UCLAP120.000.18100.0061.850.000.04
Washington St.P120.000.1833.3327.05-0.00-0.08
USCP120.000.1850.0026.710.00-0.09
WashingtonP120.000.18100.0056.460.000.02
NJITind0.000.1833.3328.81-0.00-0.08
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.160.0036.14-0.00-0.04
OaklandHorz0.000.160.0033.70-0.00-0.05
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1666.6752.470.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.150.0025.34-0.00-0.08
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.150.0038.29-0.00-0.04
MaineAE0.000.150.0016.80-0.00-0.10
VCUA100.000.15100.0074.770.000.07
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1350.0054.170.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.130.0055.45-0.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.1350.0052.540.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.1266.6742.560.00-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.12100.0063.410.000.03
IndianaB100.000.12100.0063.850.000.03
Missouri St.MVC0.000.12100.0057.620.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.12100.0068.990.000.05
IUPUISum0.000.1233.3330.78-0.00-0.05
Bowling GreenMAC6.250.12100.0061.546.250.03
OregonP120.000.12100.0070.690.000.05
UtahP120.000.1266.6770.360.000.05
Murray St.OVC0.000.1250.0072.260.000.05
CaliforniaP120.000.1275.0073.240.000.06
Loyola MDPat0.000.1266.6738.520.00-0.03
South DakotaSum0.000.120.0036.84-0.00-0.03
BucknellPat0.000.1233.3346.82-0.00-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.12100.0029.380.00-0.05
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1233.3352.91-0.000.01
NavyPat0.000.120.0032.22-0.00-0.04
Notre DameACC0.000.12100.0069.430.000.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.12100.0070.600.000.05
SyracuseACC0.000.1275.0070.210.000.05
UMKCWAC0.000.0950.0059.030.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.09100.0081.110.000.06
CharlotteCUSA0.000.09100.0070.040.000.04
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0966.6757.590.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0950.0035.570.00-0.03
ToledoMAC0.000.0933.3363.82-0.000.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0950.0049.560.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.090.0043.21-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0950.0036.270.00-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.000.09100.0055.380.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.090.0043.82-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.090.0034.73-0.00-0.03
NorthwesternB100.000.09100.0043.710.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.090.0034.26-0.00-0.03
DelawareCAA0.000.090.0033.61-0.00-0.03
La SalleA100.000.09100.0055.910.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0933.3333.43-0.00-0.03
MassachusettsA100.000.09100.0063.880.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.09100.0053.060.000.01
YaleIvy4.170.0950.0057.440.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0053.870.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.060.0035.17-0.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0666.6766.600.000.02
KansasB120.000.0650.0060.200.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0633.3344.86-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0633.3338.44-0.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.060.0054.88-0.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.060.0053.38-0.000.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0666.6745.850.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0038.98-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0666.6764.270.000.02
ArmyPat0.000.06100.0057.810.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.060.0038.12-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0633.3357.87-0.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.060.0033.60-0.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0045.780.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.060.0036.43-0.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0050.900.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.06100.0052.690.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.06100.0060.630.000.01
LafayettePat0.000.0666.6762.890.000.02
MercerSC0.000.0650.0052.770.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0650.0033.640.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0015.85-0.00-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.060.0037.45-0.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.060.0032.86-0.00-0.02
NevadaMWC0.000.0650.0052.120.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0633.3365.68-0.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.06100.0073.590.000.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0650.0055.680.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.060.0026.04-0.00-0.03
SeattleWAC0.000.0633.3347.72-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.06100.0044.620.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0650.0044.430.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0023.71-0.00-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.06100.0067.860.000.02
OhioMAC0.000.0650.0054.660.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.06100.0050.390.000.00
UMBCAE0.000.060.0035.60-0.00-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.06100.0055.900.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0650.0072.160.000.03
ChattanoogaSC0.000.060.0054.47-0.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0064.850.000.02
DavidsonA100.000.06100.0048.380.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0666.6769.310.000.02
DukeACC0.000.06100.0086.380.000.04
DuquesneA100.000.060.0051.78-0.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0650.0036.810.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.06100.0071.730.000.03
George MasonA100.000.0625.0022.09-0.00-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.060.0027.11-0.00-0.03
MinnesotaB100.000.0650.0063.730.000.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0666.6750.370.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0650.0028.860.00-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.06100.0066.050.000.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0633.3354.24-0.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0650.0062.660.000.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0666.6748.270.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.060.0067.54-0.000.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0044.000.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0650.0033.930.00-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0020.87-0.00-0.03
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0065.630.000.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0625.0029.11-0.00-0.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0666.6760.220.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.06100.0051.030.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0069.29-0.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.06100.0046.320.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.000.0650.0059.230.000.01
PennIvy0.000.060.0025.28-0.00-0.03
TempleAmer0.000.0666.6760.730.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0666.6752.000.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0650.0063.960.000.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.060.0039.15-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0650.0041.690.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0633.3338.39-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0650.0056.300.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0086.080.000.04
Miami FLACC0.000.06100.0073.200.000.03
Stony BrookAE0.000.0633.3363.09-0.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0074.210.000.02
MontanaBSky0.000.030.0049.81-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.000.0350.0065.390.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.030.0043.40-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.03100.0064.330.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.030.0055.60-0.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0045.330.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0366.6763.580.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0366.6759.850.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.03100.0057.010.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0062.840.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0350.0060.970.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0033.39-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.030.0034.27-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.030.0058.17-0.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0333.3359.35-0.000.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0350.0047.220.00-0.00
IowaB100.000.0350.0067.840.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.030.0041.45-0.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0036.560.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.030.0047.54-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0333.3349.79-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0350.0031.730.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0366.6751.360.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.03100.0061.810.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.030.0051.62-0.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0027.23-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0054.32-0.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.030.0045.03-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0350.0043.330.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0056.150.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0325.0033.23-0.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.03100.0069.310.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.03100.0075.400.000.02
DenverSum0.000.0350.0062.440.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.03100.0061.270.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0333.3335.37-0.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0350.0021.230.00-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3328.03-0.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0375.0045.210.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.03100.0066.070.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0333.3367.72-0.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0350.0050.390.000.00
TexasB120.000.03100.0084.130.000.02
UCFAmer0.000.03100.0045.610.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0366.6746.160.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0076.260.000.02
VMISC0.000.0350.0043.730.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum4.170.030.0034.57-4.17-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0366.6774.980.000.01