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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


DePaul

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:186.0
Current RPI:186
Expected SOS:68
Current SOS:68
Current Record:11-20
Expected Record:11-20
Current Conf Record:4-15
Expected Conf Record:4-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:252
Expected OOC SOS:319



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-20186.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for DePaul.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Notre Dame (70.0)ACCH58-72L0%0.0
11-13Delaware St. (351.0)MEACH81-57W100%0.0
11-17Illinois (181.0)B10A82-73L0%0.0
11-23Michigan St. (14.0)B10N51-73L0%0.0
11-24Oregon (72.0)P12N89-79L0%0.0
11-26Portland (285.0)WCCN69-82W100%0.0
12-2Youngstown St. (329.0)HorzH89-73W100%0.0
12-6Central Connecticut (263.0)NECH85-57W100%0.0
12-9Illinois Chicago (236.0)HorzA55-65W100%0.0
12-11Alabama A&M (350.0)SWACH83-59W100%0.0
12-16Northwestern (168.0)B10H60-62L0%0.0
12-21Miami OH (159.0)MACH83-66W100%0.0
12-27Villanova (2.0)BEH85-103L0%0.0
12-30Xavier (3.0)BEA77-72L0%0.0
1-2Georgetown (169.0)BEH81-90L0%0.0
1-6St. John's (92.0)BEA74-91W100%0.0
1-12Providence (32.0)BEH64-71L0%0.0
1-15Marquette (58.0)BEA70-52L0%0.0
1-20Butler (41.0)BEH67-79L0%0.0
1-24Georgetown (169.0)BEA73-74W100%0.0
1-28Seton Hall (31.0)BEH70-86L0%0.0
2-3Butler (41.0)BEA80-57L0%0.0
2-7Creighton (44.0)BEH75-76L0%0.0
2-10Providence (32.0)BEA63-80W100%0.0
2-14St. John's (92.0)BEH76-77L0%0.0
2-18Seton Hall (31.0)BEA82-77L0%0.0
2-21Villanova (2.0)BEA93-62L0%0.0
2-24Marquette (58.0)BEH70-62W100%0.0
2-27Creighton (44.0)BEA82-57L0%0.0
3-3Xavier (3.0)BEH62-65L0%0.0
3-7Marquette (58.0)BEN72-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

DePaul's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


DePaul's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  DePaul.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DePaulBE26.3426.3432.4832.48-9.23-9.23
MarquetteBE5.685.6858.6258.620.980.98
VillanovaBE4.254.2587.5087.503.193.19
ProvidenceBE4.234.2362.5062.501.061.06
St. John'sBE4.204.2046.6746.67-0.28-0.28
ButlerBE4.204.2058.0658.060.680.68
XavierBE4.184.1883.8783.872.832.83
CreightonBE4.144.1462.0762.071.001.00
GeorgetownBE4.144.1450.0050.000.000.00
Seton HallBE4.124.1263.3363.331.101.10
Youngstown St.Horz1.721.7220.6920.69-1.01-1.01
Michigan St.B101.721.7287.5087.501.291.29
NorthwesternB101.721.7243.3343.33-0.23-0.23
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.691.6951.7251.720.060.06
IllinoisB101.691.6940.0040.00-0.34-0.34
Alabama A&MSWAC1.671.6710.0010.00-1.33-1.33
Central ConnecticutNEC1.661.6645.1645.16-0.16-0.16
Delaware St.MEAC1.641.646.906.90-1.41-1.41
Notre DameACC1.641.6456.2556.250.200.20
Miami OHMAC1.611.6146.6746.67-0.11-0.11
OregonP121.611.6163.6463.640.440.44
PortlandWCC1.611.6125.0025.00-0.81-0.81
WisconsinB100.300.3045.4545.45-0.03-0.03
NebraskaB100.230.2368.7568.750.090.09
IndianaB100.230.2351.6151.610.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.200.2053.3353.330.010.01
RutgersB100.200.2042.4242.42-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.200.2082.3582.350.130.13
Cleveland St.Horz0.180.1832.3532.35-0.06-0.06
MinnesotaB100.180.1846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.180.1858.0658.060.030.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.170.1730.0030.00-0.07-0.07
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.160.1688.2488.240.120.12
Northern IllinoisMAC0.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
MichiganB100.150.1579.4179.410.090.09
Ohio St.B100.150.1575.0075.000.080.08
Arizona St.P120.150.1564.5264.520.040.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.1316.6716.67-0.09-0.09
OaklandHorz0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.1315.6215.62-0.09-0.09
Penn St.B100.130.1361.7661.760.030.03
Kent St.MAC0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.130.133.333.33-0.12-0.12
VCUA100.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
WagnerNEC0.130.1370.0070.000.050.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
DukeACC0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
Boston CollegeACC0.120.1255.8855.880.010.01
DetroitHorz0.110.1120.0020.00-0.06-0.06
Green BayHorz0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
IUPUIHorz0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
OhioMAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.100.1071.4371.430.040.04
BaylorB120.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
LSUSEC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Wichita St.Amer0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
UCLAP120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
BrownIvy0.100.1038.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1022.2222.22-0.05-0.05
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
Saint LouisA100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
UtahP120.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Fort WayneSum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
HartfordAE0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
MaineAE0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
SyracuseACC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
PittsburghACC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0844.1244.12-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
VermontAE0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
Ball St.MAC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
La SalleA100.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0710.7110.71-0.06-0.06
Stony BrookAE0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
USCP120.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
Washington St.P120.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
PacificWCC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.060.0616.1316.13-0.04-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
San DiegoWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0512.5012.50-0.04-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
YaleIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
IonaMAAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
FurmanSC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
ArizonaP120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
BelmontOVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
LafayettePat0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
TempleAmer0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
UMBCAE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
FordhamA100.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
SamfordSC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
ValparaisoMVC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.020.0293.9493.940.020.02
CaliforniaP120.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
StanfordP120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00