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Through games of Feb 26, 2017.


DePaul

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:230.9
Current RPI:230
Expected SOS:75
Current SOS:81
Current Record:9-20
Expected Record:9-22
Current Conf Record:2-14
Expected Conf Record:2-16
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-2
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:284
Expected OOC SOS:319



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-20212.42.65%
10-21222.726.07%
9-22234.671.28%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for DePaul.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Robert Morris (250.1)NECH78-72W100%0.0
11-17Rutgers (180.3)B10H59-66L0%0.0
11-20Milwaukee (290.1)HorzH77-59W100%0.0
11-23Missouri St. (217.0)MVCH68-66W100%0.0
11-30Drake (308.0)MVCH77-75W100%0.0
12-3Northwestern (52.5)B10A80-64L0%0.0
12-6Lamar (243.8)SlndH80-61W100%0.0
12-10Temple (124.1)AmerN74-65L0%0.0
12-14Illinois Chicago (246.9)HorzH75-80L0%0.0
12-17Chicago St. (318.5)WACH109-61W100%0.0
12-19Southeast Missouri St. (291.2)OVCH81-78W100%0.0
12-22Wyoming (137.2)MWCN58-72L0%0.0
12-23Missouri St. (217.0)MVCN69-58L0%0.0
12-28Villanova (1.8)BEA68-65L0%0.0
1-1St. John's (123.9)BEH73-79L0%0.0
1-7Seton Hall (50.7)BEA87-56L0%0.0
1-10Providence (56.1)BEH64-63W100%0.0
1-14Marquette (67.9)BEA83-58L0%0.0
1-16St. John's (123.9)BEA78-68L0%0.0
1-21Butler (9.0)BEH69-70L0%0.0
1-28Creighton (27.2)BEA83-66L0%0.0
1-31Georgetown (85.8)BEH73-76L0%0.0
2-4Marquette (67.9)BEH79-92L0%0.0
2-8Xavier (30.9)BEA72-61L0%0.0
2-11Creighton (27.2)BEH58-93L0%0.0
2-13Villanova (1.8)BEH62-75L0%0.0
2-19Butler (9.0)BEA82-66L0%0.0
2-22Georgetown (85.8)BEA65-67W100%0.0
2-25Seton Hall (50.7)BEH79-82L0%0.0
2-28Providence (56.1)BEA0-012%-12.3
3-4Xavier (30.9)BEH0-019%-9.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

DePaul's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


DePaul's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  DePaul.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DePaulBE26.3526.3623.3122.72-14.07-14.38
VillanovaBE4.264.1089.2988.853.353.18
Seton HallBE4.204.1061.5459.960.970.82
ButlerBE4.264.0977.7877.882.372.28
GeorgetownBE4.174.0748.1547.03-0.15-0.24
ProvidenceBE2.574.0764.2963.840.731.13
St. John'sBE4.204.0740.7440.02-0.78-0.81
XavierBE2.564.0760.7160.690.550.87
CreightonBE4.164.0773.0872.761.921.85
MarquetteBE4.194.0757.6956.820.650.55
Missouri St.MVC3.603.3750.0050.000.000.00
NorthwesternB101.881.7567.8666.180.670.57
Southeast Missouri St.OVC1.871.7542.8642.86-0.27-0.25
Chicago St.WAC1.871.7511.5411.95-1.44-1.33
DrakeMVC1.841.7222.2222.22-1.02-0.96
RutgersB101.851.7240.7440.29-0.34-0.33
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.811.7039.2939.29-0.39-0.36
MilwaukeeHorz1.781.6724.1424.14-0.92-0.86
TempleAmer1.781.6648.2849.36-0.06-0.02
LamarSlnd1.721.6150.0051.610.000.05
Robert MorrisNEC1.721.6143.3343.33-0.23-0.22
WyomingMWC1.721.6153.8553.560.130.11
Northern IowaMVC0.270.3046.4346.43-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.310.2775.8676.270.160.14
BradleyMVC0.240.2236.6736.67-0.06-0.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.230.2255.1755.170.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.240.2234.4834.48-0.07-0.07
ValparaisoHorz0.210.1976.6776.670.110.10
Fresno St.MWC0.190.1757.6957.830.030.03
UMKCWAC0.150.1744.4445.62-0.02-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.180.1744.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.180.1782.7682.760.120.11
Southern IllinoisMVC0.180.1750.0050.000.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.180.1786.6786.670.130.12
OaklandHorz0.180.1675.8675.860.090.08
IndianaB100.180.1655.1753.960.020.01
CincinnatiAmer0.150.1686.2185.440.110.11
Houston BaptistSlnd0.160.1447.8349.16-0.01-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.150.1465.5265.520.050.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.140.1431.0331.03-0.05-0.05
IowaB100.150.1355.1754.140.020.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.150.1320.6920.69-0.09-0.08
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.150.1335.7135.71-0.04-0.04
NebraskaB100.150.1340.7439.61-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.120.1348.1548.55-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.120.1375.0074.310.060.06
Penn St.B100.150.1348.2847.91-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.120.1362.0761.430.030.03
PurdueB100.120.1379.3178.860.070.08
La SalleA100.150.1351.8553.370.010.01
VirginiaACC0.120.1367.8668.150.040.05
Wake ForestACC0.120.1357.1455.730.020.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.130.1225.9325.17-0.06-0.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.120.1126.6727.00-0.06-0.05
Air ForceMWC0.120.1133.3332.49-0.04-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.120.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
DetroitHorz0.120.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Green BayHorz0.120.1157.1457.140.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.120.1117.8617.86-0.08-0.07
Wright St.Horz0.120.1162.0762.070.030.03
Oral RobertsSum0.120.1121.4321.43-0.07-0.06
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1155.1752.800.010.01
Notre DameACC0.120.1175.8674.710.060.05
IllinoisB100.090.1157.1457.010.010.01
MichiganB100.090.1165.5265.140.030.03
HowardMEAC0.120.1118.5220.52-0.08-0.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.1162.9662.960.020.03
St. Francis PANEC0.120.1146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.090.1161.5461.950.020.03
VermontAE0.090.1183.3383.330.060.07
Michigan St.B100.120.1062.0761.020.030.02
MinnesotaB100.120.1075.8674.340.060.05
Ohio St.B100.090.1055.1754.740.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.120.1048.1548.26-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.120.1063.3363.330.030.03
PennIvy0.110.1048.0049.55-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.1010.0010.00-0.07-0.08
SyracuseACC0.120.1056.6757.420.020.02
TulaneAmer0.120.1017.8618.08-0.08-0.07
UCFAmer0.110.1065.5266.270.040.03
WagnerNEC0.090.1051.8551.850.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0967.8666.440.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0824.0024.00-0.05-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0844.4444.44-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.090.0848.2848.65-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.090.0867.8666.480.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0851.7251.720.000.00
USCP120.090.0872.4173.260.040.04
ElonCAA0.090.0855.1755.170.010.01
BucknellPat0.090.0874.1974.190.040.04
IUPUISum0.090.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.090.0842.8642.42-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.090.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0866.6767.530.020.03
LehighPat0.060.0860.7160.710.010.02
MassachusettsA100.060.0848.2847.58-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.060.0859.2659.260.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0835.7136.08-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0620.8321.37-0.02-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0640.0038.77-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0630.4331.29-0.03-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0656.0056.310.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0662.5062.610.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
UTSACUSA0.060.0637.0436.94-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0672.0072.040.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0680.7781.310.040.04
SeattleWAC0.060.0640.0039.27-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0640.0041.50-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.060.0651.8551.300.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0658.3359.230.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.060.0665.3865.550.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0666.6765.560.010.02
CornellIvy0.060.0623.0823.48-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.060.0655.1754.850.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0648.0046.19-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
UNLVMWC0.060.0634.4833.87-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.060.0644.4445.15-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0517.2420.08-0.04-0.03
BelmontOVC0.060.0580.7780.770.040.03
AkronMAC0.060.0578.5778.180.040.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.057.698.10-0.05-0.05
ArizonaP120.060.0586.6786.550.040.04
Arizona St.P120.060.0546.6745.71-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0541.6741.50-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.060.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.060.0579.3179.350.040.03
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0557.1457.030.010.01
HawaiiBW0.060.0550.0048.750.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.060.0514.8114.81-0.04-0.04
Loyola MDPat0.060.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.060.0562.0760.370.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0548.1547.90-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0550.0049.020.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0528.0030.25-0.03-0.02
PittsburghACC0.060.0551.7250.150.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0571.4371.670.030.02
StanfordP120.060.0548.1546.78-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.060.0544.4441.81-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0521.4322.56-0.04-0.03
AmericanPat0.060.0527.5927.59-0.03-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0566.6765.850.020.02
BaylorB120.030.0578.5777.150.020.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0519.2322.18-0.04-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.060.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0531.0329.49-0.01-0.02
BrownIvy0.030.0538.4639.38-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0540.0041.36-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0550.0052.370.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0573.3373.330.030.02
ColoradoP120.030.0553.5753.810.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0525.9326.04-0.03-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0525.0026.00-0.03-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0544.8343.04-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0540.0042.28-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.060.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.030.0520.0020.00-0.02-0.03
MissouriSEC0.030.0525.0025.17-0.01-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0551.6151.610.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0567.8666.120.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0564.2964.650.020.02
OregonP120.060.0586.2186.570.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.030.0567.8668.280.010.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.060.0586.2186.520.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.030.0525.9325.22-0.01-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0570.3769.030.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.060.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.060.0579.3178.000.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0544.4445.39-0.01-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0339.1339.73-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0314.8115.93-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0330.4330.00-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0313.7913.43-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0329.6331.85-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0346.4345.93-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0352.0053.480.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0351.8550.780.000.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0367.8666.170.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0336.0040.25-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.4833.33-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0359.2658.390.010.00
Cal PolyBW0.030.0330.7732.97-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0379.3179.090.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0325.0025.07-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0346.1546.13-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0355.5656.670.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0378.5778.180.020.02
HartfordAE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0371.4369.290.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0348.1547.91-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0346.1546.81-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0323.0822.49-0.02-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0365.3866.640.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0358.6258.620.010.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0353.5755.070.000.00
DaytonA100.030.0381.4880.740.020.02
DuquesneA100.030.0334.4834.29-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0379.3177.540.020.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0355.1754.140.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0340.0041.67-0.01-0.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0371.4370.580.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0358.6257.980.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.030.0360.7161.450.010.01
TexasB120.030.0334.4834.12-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0350.0049.050.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0379.3178.510.020.01
YaleIvy0.030.0358.3360.030.000.01