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Through games of Mar 11, 2012.


DePaul

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:198.0
Current RPI:198
Expected SOS:109
Current SOS:109
Current Record:12-19
Expected Record:12-19
Current Conf Record:3-16
Expected Conf Record:3-16
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:206
Expected OOC SOS:330



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-19198.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for DePaul.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Texas Pan American (314.0)GWCH91-72W100%0.0
11-14Mississippi Valley St. (144.0)SWACH80-70W100%0.0
11-24Minnesota (89.0)B10N85-86L0%0.0
11-25Texas Tech (241.0)B12N76-70W100%0.0
11-27Arizona St. (252.0)P12N68-64W100%0.0
12-1Mississippi (61.0)SECH68-70L0%0.0
12-5Wisconsin Milwaukee (125.0)HorzH76-87L0%0.0
12-7Loyola Chicago (309.0)HorzA58-69W100%0.0
12-10Chicago St. (336.0)GWCH102-95W100%0.0
12-14Northern Illinois (334.0)MACA52-75W100%0.0
12-17Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)SWACH81-62W100%0.0
12-21Cal Poly (219.0)BWH63-58W100%0.0
1-1Syracuse (1.0)BEH68-87L0%0.0
1-5Pittsburgh (96.0)BEH84-81W100%0.0
1-8Villanova (121.0)BEA87-71L0%0.0
1-10Seton Hall (68.0)BEA94-73L0%0.0
1-14Louisville (13.0)BEA76-59L0%0.0
1-17Georgetown (15.0)BEH75-83L0%0.0
1-22South Florida (52.0)BEH59-75L0%0.0
1-25Rutgers (163.0)BEA64-69W100%0.0
2-1St. John's (159.0)BEH81-87L0%0.0
2-4Cincinnati (44.0)BEA74-66L0%0.0
2-6Marquette (9.0)BEH76-89L0%0.0
2-11Notre Dame (39.0)BEA84-76L0%0.0
2-15Connecticut (32.0)BEA80-54L0%0.0
2-18Louisville (13.0)BEH82-90L0%0.0
2-20St. John's (159.0)BEA79-72L0%0.0
2-25Providence (156.0)BEH71-73L0%0.0
2-28West Virginia (57.0)BEA92-75L0%0.0
3-3Seton Hall (68.0)BEH86-58W100%0.0
3-6Connecticut (32.0)BEN81-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

DePaul's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


DePaul's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  DePaul.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DePaulBE25.9825.9834.9034.90-7.85-7.85
LouisvilleBE3.823.8272.7372.731.741.74
ConnecticutBE3.803.8058.0658.060.610.61
Seton HallBE3.793.7963.3363.331.011.01
St. John'sBE3.753.7536.6736.67-1.00-1.00
CincinnatiBE2.312.3169.7069.700.910.91
Notre DameBE2.252.2565.6265.620.700.70
SyracuseBE2.252.2593.7593.751.971.97
PittsburghBE2.232.2353.1253.120.140.14
MarquetteBE2.232.2377.4277.421.221.22
GeorgetownBE2.212.2172.4172.410.990.99
ProvidenceBE2.192.1945.1645.16-0.21-0.21
RutgersBE2.182.1845.1645.16-0.21-0.21
VillanovaBE2.182.1838.7138.71-0.49-0.49
South FloridaBE2.182.1858.0658.060.350.35
West VirginiaBE2.182.1858.0658.060.350.35
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.761.7665.6265.620.550.55
Chicago St.GWC1.721.7211.1111.11-1.34-1.34
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz1.721.7256.6756.670.230.23
Texas Pan AmericanGWC1.721.7225.9325.93-0.83-0.83
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.711.7134.3834.38-0.53-0.53
Loyola ChicagoHorz1.691.6921.4321.43-0.97-0.97
MississippiSEC1.661.6659.3859.380.310.31
Northern IllinoisMAC1.641.6414.2914.29-1.17-1.17
Cal PolyBW1.641.6453.3353.330.110.11
Arizona St.P121.611.6133.3333.33-0.54-0.54
MinnesotaB101.611.6156.2556.250.200.20
Texas TechB121.611.6126.6726.67-0.75-0.75
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.220.2239.2939.29-0.05-0.05
DetroitHorz0.210.2160.6160.610.040.04
ButlerHorz0.180.1857.5857.580.030.03
NorthwesternB100.180.1858.0658.060.030.03
AuburnSEC0.170.1748.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.160.1625.0025.00-0.08-0.08
FairfieldMAAC0.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
GramblingSWAC0.150.1514.2914.29-0.11-0.11
Texas SouthernSWAC0.150.1545.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.150.1534.4834.48-0.05-0.05
North DakotaGWC0.140.1448.1548.15-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyGWC0.140.1457.1457.140.020.02
ToledoMAC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.140.1448.1548.15-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.130.1346.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.120.1272.7372.730.060.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
SouthernSWAC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
ArkansasSEC0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.120.1220.0020.00-0.07-0.07
TennesseeSEC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
KentuckySEC0.120.1294.1294.120.110.11
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
Houston BaptistGWC0.120.1225.9325.93-0.06-0.06
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1139.3939.39-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
IowaB100.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
Kansas St.B120.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
KansasB120.100.1081.8281.820.070.07
UC RiversideBW0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Southern CaliforniaP120.100.1018.7518.75-0.06-0.06
ArizonaP120.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
Texas A&MB120.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
MissouriB120.100.1088.2488.240.080.08
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
MemphisCUSA0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
DaytonA100.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
Louisiana St.SEC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
IUPUISum0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.1019.2319.23-0.06-0.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.080.0840.7440.74-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Texas ChristianMWC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0864.2964.290.020.02
AkronMAC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
BaylorB120.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
WashingtonP120.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
StanfordP120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
OklahomaB120.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Southern MississippiCUSA0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
Michigan St.B100.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
LamarSlnd0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Miami FLACC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
St. Peter'sMAAC0.070.0716.1316.13-0.05-0.05
Holy CrossPat0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Penn St.B100.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
IndianaB100.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
MaineAE0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
WagnerNEC0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0710.3410.34-0.06-0.06
South Carolina UpstateASun0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0632.0032.00-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0637.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
TulaneCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
PurdueB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
AmericanPat0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Fresno St.WAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
PacificBW0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.WAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
UC DavisBW0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Washington St.P120.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
DukeACC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Longwoodind0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
MercerASun0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
MonmouthNEC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
YaleIvy0.050.0565.3865.380.020.02
BryantNEC0.050.056.676.67-0.04-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
La SalleA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
PennsylvaniaIvy0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0586.2186.210.040.04
NC AshevilleBSth0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
NebraskaB100.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonSC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
Western KentuckySB0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
CreightonMVC0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
Texas St.Slnd0.030.0334.6234.62-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
NC GreensboroSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
NevadaWAC0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
North TexasSB0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0334.6234.62-0.01-0.01
St. Mary'sWCC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
TroySB0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityAE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
BrownIvy0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Florida AtlanticSB0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCAA0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
St. LouisA100.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
TempleA100.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
DuquesneA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Florida InternationalSB0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
MarylandACC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Middle TennesseeSB0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Texas El PasoCUSA0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Virginia Military InstBSth0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
XavierA100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01