live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Nov 21, 2014.


Providence

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:45.4
Current RPI:62
Expected SOS:17
Current SOS:151
Current Record:3-0
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:3-0
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:31
Expected OOC SOS:21



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-32.50.04%
27-44.30.06%
26-55.10.46%
25-67.30.99%
24-710.72.54%
23-814.75.64%
22-920.19.79%
21-1026.913.22%
20-1135.215.96%
19-1245.716.46%
18-1356.213.65%
17-1469.99.95%
16-1584.85.87%
15-16101.23.24%
14-17115.31.36%
13-18135.90.57%
12-19154.60.16%
11-20174.50.02%
10-21180.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Providence.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Albany (149.1)AEH64-60W100%0.0
11-17Binghamton (266.0)AEH66-45W100%0.0
11-20Navy (270.8)PatH88-51W100%0.0
11-22Florida St. (86.5)ACCN0-054%1.3
11-23Notre Dame (56.9)ACCN0-041%-2.7
11-28Yale (110.8)IvyH0-081%10.8
11-30Kentucky (4.2)SECA0-012%-14.3
12-5Boston College (151.3)ACCA0-061%3.2
12-8Brown (266.4)IvyH0-094%18.9
12-10Rhode Island (128.3)A10H0-079%9.7
12-13Stony Brook (112.4)AEH0-081%10.6
12-20Massachusetts (45.2)A10H0-067%5.4
12-22Miami FL (18.8)ACCN0-035%-4.5
12-31Creighton (101.0)BEH0-074%7.6
1-3Marquette (105.8)BEA0-049%-0.2
1-6Butler (106.7)BEA0-051%0.4
1-10Georgetown (46.3)BEH0-061%3.3
1-14St. John's (111.7)BEH0-074%7.8
1-17Creighton (101.0)BEA0-051%0.4
1-22Xavier (14.9)BEH0-048%-0.7
1-27DePaul (180.2)BEH0-086%13.2
1-31St. John's (111.7)BEA0-052%0.6
2-4Georgetown (46.3)BEA0-037%-3.8
2-7Xavier (14.9)BEA0-025%-7.9
2-11Villanova (53.5)BEH0-060%3.0
2-14Seton Hall (78.6)BEH0-069%6.1
2-18DePaul (180.2)BEA0-069%6.0
2-24Villanova (53.5)BEA0-036%-4.2
3-1Marquette (105.8)BEH0-072%7.0
3-4Seton Hall (78.6)BEA0-046%-1.1
3-7Butler (106.7)BEH0-074%7.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Providence's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Providence's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Providence.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ProvidenceBE36.1126.37100.0060.2036.115.38
CreightonBE0.004.13100.0057.120.000.59
VillanovaBE0.004.13100.0068.470.001.53
ButlerBE0.004.12100.0055.410.000.45
DePaulBE0.004.12100.0038.950.00-0.91
St. John'sBE0.004.12100.0053.420.000.28
XavierBE0.004.12100.0077.380.002.26
MarquetteBE0.004.1250.0055.400.000.45
Seton HallBE0.004.12100.0058.740.000.72
GeorgetownBE0.004.12100.0066.050.001.32
Notre DameACC6.941.81100.0069.786.940.71
Boston CollegeACC0.001.8050.0041.770.00-0.30
BinghamtonAE16.671.780.0040.60-16.67-0.33
MassachusettsA100.001.75100.0064.920.000.52
AlbanyAE16.671.75100.0066.2416.670.57
Miami FLACC0.001.75100.0073.490.000.82
Florida St.ACC0.001.7550.0056.650.000.23
Stony BrookAE0.001.7333.3364.67-0.000.51
BrownIvy0.001.7033.3339.60-0.00-0.35
YaleIvy0.001.7050.0058.830.000.30
Rhode IslandA100.001.69100.0054.340.000.15
NavyPat16.671.640.0033.41-16.67-0.54
KentuckySEC0.001.61100.0086.000.001.16
MaineAE0.000.310.0016.80-0.00-0.21
UMass LowellAE0.000.2633.3331.34-0.00-0.10
NJITind4.170.2533.3328.81-1.39-0.11
SyracuseACC0.000.2475.0070.210.000.10
New HampshireAE0.000.230.0041.70-0.00-0.04
PennIvy0.000.220.0025.28-0.00-0.11
HartfordAE0.000.2266.6738.630.00-0.05
VermontAE0.000.2050.0066.020.000.06
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1950.0060.970.000.04
FloridaSEC0.000.1966.6766.600.000.06
Georgia TechACC0.000.19100.0052.690.000.01
DukeACC0.000.19100.0086.380.000.14
North CarolinaACC0.000.19100.0066.050.000.06
George WashingtonA100.000.1766.6777.370.000.09
FordhamA100.000.170.0034.73-0.00-0.05
UMBCAE0.000.170.0035.60-0.00-0.05
La SalleA100.000.17100.0055.910.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1733.3333.43-0.00-0.06
HarvardIvy0.000.1750.0066.890.000.06
LehighPat0.000.170.0035.69-0.00-0.05
PittsburghACC0.000.1666.6751.250.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.16100.0079.370.000.09
Virginia TechACC0.000.16100.0041.370.00-0.03
ClemsonACC0.000.1633.3344.93-0.00-0.02
CornellIvy0.000.1440.0041.64-0.00-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.1466.6738.520.00-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.1433.3349.73-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.000.1433.3346.82-0.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1466.6757.590.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.140.0027.18-0.00-0.06
KansasB120.000.1250.0060.200.000.02
IndianaB100.000.12100.0063.850.000.03
AmericanPat0.000.1166.6764.270.000.03
ColgatePat0.000.110.0036.43-0.00-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.000.11100.0060.630.000.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.110.0033.39-0.00-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1150.0035.880.00-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.110.0032.86-0.00-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1133.3357.87-0.000.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.1150.0050.390.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1133.3352.91-0.000.01
VCUA100.000.11100.0074.770.000.05
NebraskaB100.000.11100.0051.030.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.11100.0065.630.000.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.11100.0070.600.000.05
AlabamaSEC0.000.11100.0055.900.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.1166.6750.370.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.11100.0059.140.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.11100.0076.260.000.06
Wake ForestACC0.000.1150.0041.490.00-0.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0966.6745.850.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.09100.0066.070.000.03
CharlotteCUSA0.000.09100.0070.040.000.03
ArmyPat0.000.09100.0057.810.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.090.0026.04-0.00-0.04
LafayettePat0.000.0966.6762.890.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0850.0051.340.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.08100.0043.710.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.08100.0044.620.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.08100.0064.850.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0833.3336.31-0.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.080.0043.82-0.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0850.0028.860.00-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0825.0029.11-0.00-0.03
AuburnSEC0.000.0866.6742.560.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0850.0036.810.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.08100.0071.730.000.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.08100.0045.530.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0850.0044.000.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.080.0057.16-0.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.08100.0069.720.000.03
MississippiSEC0.000.0866.6760.220.000.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0633.3344.86-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0633.3338.44-0.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.060.0054.88-0.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.060.0053.38-0.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0038.98-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.06100.0058.420.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0650.0052.770.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.060.0037.45-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0650.0035.570.00-0.02
NevadaMWC0.000.0650.0052.120.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.060.0043.21-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.06100.0073.590.000.03
RutgersB100.000.0650.0036.270.00-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.06100.0084.100.000.04
WisconsinB100.000.06100.0081.110.000.04
DavidsonA100.000.06100.0048.380.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0666.6769.310.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.060.0051.78-0.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0625.0022.09-0.00-0.03
RichmondA100.000.0650.0062.660.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0650.0054.540.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0650.0036.850.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.060.0051.62-0.000.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0650.0072.160.000.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.060.0054.47-0.000.00
ColoradoP120.000.06100.0068.420.000.02
DrakeMVC0.000.060.0028.82-0.00-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0650.0054.580.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0633.3330.78-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.060.0027.11-0.00-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.060.0033.64-0.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0650.0063.730.000.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0650.0072.260.000.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0633.3354.24-0.000.00
Oregon St.P120.000.06100.0050.080.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0650.0055.680.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0666.6748.270.00-0.00
StanfordP120.000.06100.0068.290.000.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.060.0067.54-0.000.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0650.0033.930.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0566.6759.850.000.01
Michigan St.B102.780.0566.6771.300.930.02
The CitadelSC0.000.050.0027.74-0.00-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.05100.0057.010.000.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0533.3358.87-0.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.05100.0048.390.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.050.0020.87-0.00-0.03
DelawareCAA0.000.050.0033.61-0.00-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.050.0034.26-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.050.0069.29-0.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.05100.0046.320.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.000.0550.0059.230.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.050.0036.84-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0566.6760.730.000.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.05100.0029.380.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0566.6752.000.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.05100.0063.380.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0566.6756.820.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.05100.0036.560.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0550.0055.220.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0333.3343.51-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0055.45-0.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0350.0052.770.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0029.88-0.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.030.0035.33-0.00-0.01
VMISC0.000.0350.0043.730.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.03100.0075.400.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0333.3334.47-0.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0366.6763.800.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.03100.0067.860.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.030.0043.44-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0375.0062.010.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0333.3351.38-0.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0366.6746.160.00-0.00
USCP120.000.0350.0026.710.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0056.460.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.03100.0068.580.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0350.0043.330.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0366.6763.580.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0325.0057.21-0.000.00
DrexelCAA0.000.030.0034.27-0.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.030.0065.86-0.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0034.15-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0333.3336.04-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0038.65-0.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0074.210.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.03100.0069.310.000.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.03100.0058.280.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0031.68-0.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0023.71-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0350.0049.560.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0366.6766.940.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.030.0024.76-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.030.0049.10-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.03100.0060.570.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.030.0032.16-0.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.03100.0084.130.000.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6764.990.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.03100.0045.610.00-0.00
UCLAP120.000.03100.0061.850.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0366.6754.260.000.00