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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Providence

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:56.0
Current RPI:56
Expected SOS:47
Current SOS:47
Current Record:20-12
Expected Record:20-12
Current Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-2
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:73
Expected OOC SOS:178



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1256.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Providence.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Vermont (46.0)AEH80-58W100%0.0
11-17Ohio St. (90.0)B10A72-67L0%0.0
11-19Grambling St. (317.0)SWACH71-54W100%0.0
11-21St. Francis NY (348.0)NECH64-48W100%0.0
11-25Memphis (120.0)AmerN51-60W100%0.0
11-26Virginia (18.0)ACCN52-63L0%0.0
11-30New Hampshire (127.0)AEH76-62W100%0.0
12-3Rhode Island (31.0)A10H63-60W100%0.0
12-6Brown (284.0)IvyH95-57W100%0.0
12-10Massachusetts (195.0)A10H75-69W100%0.0
12-17Wagner (244.0)NECH76-54W100%0.0
12-20Maine (322.0)AEH79-59W100%0.0
12-23Boston College (219.0)ACCA79-67L0%0.0
12-28Xavier (37.0)BEA82-56L0%0.0
1-1Butler (15.0)BEA78-61L0%0.0
1-4Georgetown (106.0)BEH76-70W100%0.0
1-7Creighton (26.0)BEH64-78L0%0.0
1-10DePaul (239.0)BEA64-63L0%0.0
1-14Seton Hall (43.0)BEH65-61W100%0.0
1-16Georgetown (106.0)BEA56-74W100%0.0
1-21Villanova (1.0)BEA78-68L0%0.0
1-25St. John's (140.0)BEH86-91L0%0.0
1-28Marquette (60.0)BEA78-79W100%0.0
2-1Villanova (1.0)BEH57-66L0%0.0
2-8Seton Hall (43.0)BEA72-70L0%0.0
2-11Butler (15.0)BEH71-65W100%0.0
2-15Xavier (37.0)BEH75-63W100%0.0
2-22Creighton (26.0)BEA66-68W100%0.0
2-25Marquette (60.0)BEH73-69W100%0.0
2-28DePaul (239.0)BEH73-64W100%0.0
3-4St. John's (140.0)BEA75-86W100%0.0
3-9Creighton (26.0)BEN58-70L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Providence's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Providence's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Providence.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ProvidenceBE26.3126.3160.0060.005.265.26
CreightonBE5.555.5573.3373.332.592.59
VillanovaBE4.144.1490.6290.623.363.36
XavierBE4.124.1262.5062.501.031.03
St. John'sBE4.044.0441.9441.94-0.65-0.65
Seton HallBE4.044.0466.6766.671.351.35
ButlerBE4.014.0175.8675.862.072.07
GeorgetownBE3.993.9946.6746.67-0.27-0.27
DePaulBE3.993.9926.6726.67-1.86-1.86
MarquetteBE3.993.9965.5265.521.241.24
VermontAE1.771.7787.5087.501.331.33
MaineAE1.721.7220.0020.00-1.03-1.03
VirginiaACC1.711.7167.7467.740.610.61
New HampshireAE1.681.6860.7160.710.360.36
St. Francis NYNEC1.671.6710.3410.34-1.32-1.32
WagnerNEC1.641.6453.5753.570.120.12
Rhode IslandA101.641.6475.0075.000.820.82
BrownIvy1.641.6440.7440.74-0.30-0.30
MassachusettsA101.641.6446.8846.88-0.10-0.10
Boston CollegeACC1.591.5925.8125.81-0.77-0.77
Grambling St.SWAC1.591.5944.8344.83-0.16-0.16
Ohio St.B101.591.5951.6151.610.050.05
MemphisAmer1.561.5661.2961.290.350.35
AlbanyAE0.230.2360.6160.610.050.05
WisconsinB100.220.2273.5373.530.100.10
Central ConnecticutNEC0.210.2120.6920.69-0.12-0.12
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.210.2134.4834.48-0.06-0.06
Stony BrookAE0.200.2058.0658.060.030.03
UMass LowellAE0.200.2033.3333.33-0.07-0.07
BinghamtonAE0.200.2031.0331.03-0.08-0.08
TempleAmer0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.190.1959.3859.380.040.04
La SalleA100.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.180.1848.3948.39-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.180.1825.9325.93-0.09-0.09
Robert MorrisNEC0.180.1842.4242.42-0.03-0.03
UMBCAE0.180.1857.1457.140.030.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.180.1861.2961.290.040.04
HartfordAE0.180.1828.1228.12-0.08-0.08
CincinnatiAmer0.170.1785.2985.290.120.12
SyracuseACC0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
BryantNEC0.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
ConnecticutAmer0.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.150.1548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.150.1543.7543.75-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.140.1473.5373.530.070.07
UCFAmer0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
BuffaloMAC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.130.1340.6240.62-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.130.1338.4638.46-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.130.1361.5461.540.030.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.130.1332.2632.26-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
IowaB100.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
NebraskaB100.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
VCUA100.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.110.1155.8855.880.010.01
YaleIvy0.100.1060.7160.710.020.02
PennIvy0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
AmericanPat0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Holy CrossPat0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
DukeACC0.100.1077.1477.140.050.05
MarylandB100.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
UtahP120.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.100.1014.2914.29-0.07-0.07
HoustonAmer0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
Michigan St.B100.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
MinnesotaB100.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
TulaneAmer0.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
ClemsonACC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
DavidsonA100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
FordhamA100.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
MaristMAAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
MichiganB100.070.0768.5768.570.030.03
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
CaliforniaP120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0729.4129.41-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
LafayettePat0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Penn St.B100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
AkronMAC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Arizona St.P120.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
George MasonA100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
UMKCWAC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
CornellIvy0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.060.0678.5778.570.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
RiderMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
BucknellPat0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
IUPUISum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.053.333.33-0.05-0.05
NortheasternCAA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Miami FLACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.030.03
SMUAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
LehighPat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
ArmyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
AuburnSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0232.0032.00-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0219.2319.23-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
OklahomaB120.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
UABCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UCLAP120.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
HofstraCAA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
WoffordSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00