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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Providence

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:75.1
Current RPI:41
Expected SOS:32
Current SOS:31
Current Record:5-2
Expected Record:17-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:5-2
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:49
Expected OOC SOS:97



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-514.00.01%
25-612.00.02%
24-715.20.12%
23-821.60.58%
22-926.91.74%
21-1034.84.66%
20-1143.09.28%
19-1253.414.61%
18-1365.817.56%
17-1478.919.06%
16-1593.115.08%
15-16108.29.83%
14-17124.14.90%
13-18139.71.81%
12-19154.80.59%
11-20177.20.12%
10-21191.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Providence.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Vermont (91.3)AEH80-58W100%0.0
11-17Ohio St. (30.8)B10A72-67L0%0.0
11-19Grambling St. (333.4)SWACH71-54W100%0.0
11-21St. Francis NY (314.7)NECH64-48W100%0.0
11-25Memphis (120.6)AmerN51-60W100%0.0
11-26Virginia (4.7)ACCN52-63L0%0.0
11-30New Hampshire (156.1)AEH76-62W100%0.0
12-3Rhode Island (33.6)A10H0-053%1.0
12-6Brown (272.3)IvyH0-094%18.7
12-10Massachusetts (108.4)A10H0-077%8.8
12-17Wagner (204.5)NECH0-090%15.5
12-20Maine (310.8)AEH0-098%24.5
12-23Boston College (245.5)ACCA0-079%9.5
12-28Xavier (11.9)BEA0-017%-11.2
1-1Butler (14.7)BEA0-018%-10.8
1-4Georgetown (104.0)BEH0-061%3.3
1-7Creighton (25.4)BEH0-037%-4.1
1-10DePaul (206.1)BEA0-071%6.7
1-14Seton Hall (76.8)BEH0-058%2.4
1-16Georgetown (104.0)BEA0-040%-2.9
1-21Villanova (7.4)BEA0-011%-14.7
1-25St. John's (167.9)BEH0-076%8.3
1-28Marquette (60.1)BEA0-027%-7.5
2-1Villanova (7.4)BEH0-024%-8.6
2-8Seton Hall (76.8)BEA0-038%-3.8
2-11Butler (14.7)BEH0-035%-4.7
2-15Xavier (11.9)BEH0-034%-5.0
2-22Creighton (25.4)BEA0-020%-10.3
2-25Marquette (60.1)BEH0-046%-1.3
2-28DePaul (206.1)BEH0-086%12.8
3-4St. John's (167.9)BEA0-057%2.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Providence's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Providence's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Providence.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ProvidenceBE28.6826.3168.0052.0510.321.08
VillanovaBE0.004.10100.0083.160.002.72
ButlerBE0.004.10100.0075.860.002.12
GeorgetownBE0.004.0850.0047.430.00-0.21
St. John'sBE0.004.0828.5733.93-0.00-1.31
XavierBE0.004.08100.0074.830.002.02
CreightonBE0.004.07100.0077.000.002.20
DePaulBE0.004.0780.0036.980.00-1.06
MarquetteBE0.004.0771.4363.040.001.06
Seton HallBE0.004.0771.4354.680.000.38
VermontAE7.141.7871.4374.103.060.86
VirginiaACC8.761.77100.0081.948.761.13
MaineAE0.001.7616.6726.42-0.00-0.83
St. Francis NYNEC7.651.7320.0030.38-4.59-0.68
New HampshireAE7.141.7260.0059.691.430.33
MassachusettsA100.001.7083.3359.230.000.31
Rhode IslandA100.001.6971.4371.150.000.72
BrownIvy0.601.6950.0043.770.00-0.21
WagnerNEC0.001.6933.3355.55-0.000.19
Boston CollegeACC0.001.6450.0027.440.00-0.74
Grambling St.SWAC7.651.6433.3335.45-2.55-0.48
Ohio St.B107.651.6483.3371.755.100.71
MemphisAmer7.141.61100.0061.737.140.38
UMass LowellAE0.000.2225.0040.81-0.00-0.04
AlbanyAE0.000.2250.0060.380.000.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.2240.0037.65-0.00-0.06
Stony BrookAE0.000.2216.6733.82-0.00-0.07
BinghamtonAE0.000.2242.8640.94-0.00-0.04
TempleAmer0.600.2171.4363.570.260.06
WisconsinB100.000.2175.0073.840.000.10
La SalleA100.000.2160.0051.780.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1925.0039.28-0.00-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.000.190.0023.47-0.00-0.10
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1920.0034.22-0.00-0.06
HartfordAE0.000.1912.5022.55-0.00-0.11
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.1983.3357.990.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1985.7180.960.000.12
SyracuseACC0.000.1866.6770.140.000.07
Wake ForestACC0.000.1871.4352.370.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.1728.5750.20-0.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1740.0043.86-0.00-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.1780.0055.340.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1633.3338.76-0.00-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1650.0046.780.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1442.8638.05-0.00-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1442.8642.47-0.00-0.02
HarvardIvy0.000.140.0043.04-0.00-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.450.1416.6734.31-0.30-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.600.1371.4350.570.260.00
NorthwesternB100.000.1371.4366.220.000.04
PittsburghACC0.000.1385.7155.550.000.01
RutgersB100.000.1383.3344.770.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.1340.0050.91-0.000.00
IowaB101.020.1342.8644.33-0.15-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.1385.7162.920.000.03
Notre DameACC0.000.13100.0075.010.000.07
UCFAmer0.000.1383.3374.620.000.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1112.5048.98-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.000.1116.6735.65-0.00-0.03
YaleIvy0.960.1133.3364.14-0.320.03
Holy CrossPat0.000.1142.8647.69-0.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC1.020.110.0042.55-1.02-0.02
PennIvy0.000.1140.0057.97-0.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1157.1448.860.00-0.00
DukeACC0.000.1187.5078.680.000.06
South CarolinaSEC0.450.11100.0080.780.450.07
HoustonAmer0.450.1183.3376.370.300.06
HowardMEAC0.000.110.0038.26-0.00-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.1150.0043.610.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.1175.0061.040.000.02
MississippiSEC0.000.1171.4346.010.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.1066.6753.460.000.01
FordhamA100.000.1057.1443.680.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.1085.7178.150.000.06
MarylandB100.000.1085.7156.490.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.1050.0061.590.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.1085.7165.670.000.03
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1040.0057.49-0.000.02
TulaneAmer0.000.1014.2926.81-0.00-0.05
MaristMAAC0.450.0842.8635.68-0.06-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.510.0875.0047.510.26-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC1.620.080.0024.19-1.62-0.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC1.620.0825.0024.28-0.81-0.04
CaliforniaP120.000.0883.3363.610.000.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0825.0024.66-0.00-0.04
DavidsonA100.000.0883.3368.880.000.03
DaytonA100.000.0866.6772.440.000.04
IndianaB100.000.0883.3375.060.000.04
LouisvilleACC0.000.0885.7175.950.000.04
MichiganB100.000.0871.4366.530.000.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.510.0833.3333.15-0.17-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.0885.7180.010.000.05
Western CarolinaSC0.510.0816.6718.96-0.34-0.05
LafayettePat0.000.0833.3331.87-0.00-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0866.6765.810.000.02
RichmondA100.000.0857.1448.600.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0866.6770.740.000.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.510.0866.6758.420.170.01
George MasonA100.000.0857.1442.940.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0862.5043.960.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0871.4374.450.000.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6737.09-0.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0013.30-0.00-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0614.2934.56-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.39-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0024.25-0.00-0.03
CornellIvy0.000.0628.5730.63-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0024.77-0.00-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0616.6732.62-0.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0625.0063.95-0.000.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.0625.0056.92-0.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0657.1467.020.000.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0650.0053.530.000.00
West VirginiaB120.600.0683.3380.550.400.03
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0683.3362.080.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0671.4371.570.000.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0047.990.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.510.050.0024.32-0.51-0.03
AkronMAC0.000.0583.3369.840.000.02
ArizonaP120.000.0585.7170.990.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0557.1436.050.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0575.0067.660.000.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0514.2929.15-0.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.050.0017.30-0.00-0.04
DelawareCAA0.000.0540.0040.65-0.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.050.0021.30-0.00-0.03
FloridaSEC0.000.0587.5075.320.000.03
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0560.0039.610.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0566.6754.380.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0550.0050.940.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.050.0038.51-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0550.0050.290.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0533.3346.81-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.000.0528.5747.72-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0560.0043.970.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0533.3340.49-0.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0575.0064.960.000.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.050.0038.35-0.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0557.1448.240.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0516.6740.71-0.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.050.0019.30-0.00-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0557.1440.590.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0550.0038.430.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0575.0059.100.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0571.4356.050.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0550.0036.820.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0560.0048.590.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.0537.5034.65-0.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0585.7162.410.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0557.1444.160.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0566.6739.720.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0571.4365.740.000.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0533.3326.75-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0585.7168.390.000.02
BaylorB120.000.05100.0074.460.000.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0516.6731.91-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0516.6743.29-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0562.5056.500.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.0571.4359.850.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.050.0018.22-0.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0516.6736.35-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0566.6751.460.000.00
ElonCAA0.000.0583.3358.030.000.01
LehighPat0.000.0533.3367.01-0.000.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0550.0045.920.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0550.0061.810.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0583.3356.560.000.01
OregonP120.000.0571.4366.730.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.0557.1469.300.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0566.6732.240.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0560.0039.200.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0533.3338.20-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0516.6736.45-0.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.600.0325.0053.29-0.300.00
DetroitHorz0.600.030.0019.51-0.60-0.02
WinthropBSth0.600.0360.0070.500.120.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0350.0051.820.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0320.0032.60-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0340.0067.95-0.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.510.0350.0033.010.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0316.6727.03-0.00-0.01
NJITASun0.000.0342.8650.32-0.000.00
ArmyPat0.000.0333.3345.58-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0340.0061.37-0.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0333.3341.52-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0055.850.000.00
HofstraCAA0.450.0357.1440.550.06-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0333.3338.19-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0360.0052.760.000.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0328.5750.51-0.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0385.7174.430.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0340.0055.44-0.000.00
WoffordSC0.450.030.0033.58-0.45-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0383.3355.200.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0320.0034.39-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0360.0067.410.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.0357.1442.660.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.030.0037.92-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0385.7155.890.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0328.5730.29-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.510.0383.3359.600.340.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.23-0.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.510.030.0020.01-0.51-0.02
NavyPat0.510.0328.5743.62-0.22-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0342.8637.25-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.510.0366.6775.370.170.01
OklahomaB120.000.0383.3351.920.000.00
PacificWCC0.000.0350.0049.010.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0350.0054.490.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.0357.1461.940.000.01
UCLAP120.000.03100.0083.550.000.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0350.0064.840.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0342.8637.60-0.00-0.01