Providence

Conference:	BE
Expected RPI:	91.0
Current RPI:	91
Expected SOS:	57
Current SOS:	57
Current Record:	17-14
Expected Record:	17-14
Current Conf Record:	9-10
Expected Conf Record:	9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-2
Current OOC Record:	8-4
Expected OOC Record:	8-4
Expected OOC RPI:	162
Expected OOC SOS:	266

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-14	91.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Providence.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	NJ Inst of Technology (300.0)	GWC	H	64-63	W	100%
11-12	Bryant (158.0)	NEC	H	81-49	W	100%
11-15	Massachusetts (57.0)	A10	N	77-75	L	0%
11-16	Penn St. (186.0)	B10	N	52-55	L	0%
11-18	NC Asheville (217.0)	BSth	N	72-67	W	100%
11-23	Fairfield (173.0)	MAAC	H	66-47	W	100%
11-27	Holy Cross (251.0)	Pat	H	61-42	W	100%
12-1	Mississippi St. (232.0)	SEC	H	73-63	W	100%
12-6	Rhode Island (201.0)	A10	H	72-57	W	100%
12-18	Colgate (256.0)	Pat	H	79-45	W	100%
12-22	Boston College (113.0)	ACC	A	71-68	L	0%
12-28	Brown (241.0)	Ivy	A	69-68	L	0%
1-2	Louisville (3.0)	BE	A	80-62	L	0%
1-5	DePaul (204.0)	BE	H	73-83	L	0%
1-9	Syracuse (14.0)	BE	H	66-72	L	0%
1-13	Seton Hall (138.0)	BE	A	55-67	W	100%
1-16	Georgetown (11.0)	BE	A	74-65	L	0%
1-19	Villanova (52.0)	BE	H	69-66	W	100%
1-22	Pittsburgh (44.0)	BE	H	64-68	L	0%
1-26	Marquette (13.0)	BE	A	81-71	L	0%
1-31	Connecticut (49.0)	BE	H	79-82	L	0%
2-3	Villanova (52.0)	BE	A	52-55	W	100%
2-6	Cincinnati (50.0)	BE	H	54-50	W	100%
2-13	South Florida (156.0)	BE	A	66-76	W	100%
2-16	Notre Dame (35.0)	BE	H	71-54	W	100%
2-20	Syracuse (14.0)	BE	A	84-59	L	0%
2-23	Rutgers (109.0)	BE	A	72-76	W	100%
3-2	St. John's (96.0)	BE	H	62-59	W	100%
3-5	Seton Hall (138.0)	BE	H	76-66	W	100%
3-9	Connecticut (49.0)	BE	A	63-59	L	0%
3-13	Cincinnati (50.0)	BE	N	44-61	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Providence's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Providence's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Providence.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Providence	BE	26.05	26.05	51.88	51.88	0.98	0.98
Syracuse	BE	3.90	3.90	72.73	72.73	1.77	1.77
Seton Hall	BE	3.86	3.86	48.39	48.39	-0.12	-0.12
Villanova	BE	3.83	3.83	63.33	63.33	1.02	1.02
Cincinnati	BE	3.81	3.81	67.74	67.74	1.35	1.35
Connecticut	BE	3.75	3.75	64.29	64.29	1.07	1.07
Louisville	BE	2.33	2.33	84.85	84.85	1.62	1.62
St. John's	BE	2.30	2.30	53.33	53.33	0.15	0.15
Notre Dame	BE	2.29	2.29	75.76	75.76	1.18	1.18
Georgetown	BE	2.28	2.28	80.00	80.00	1.37	1.37
South Florida	BE	2.27	2.27	40.00	40.00	-0.45	-0.45
Marquette	BE	2.26	2.26	73.33	73.33	1.06	1.06
Rutgers	BE	2.26	2.26	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Pittsburgh	BE	2.26	2.26	74.19	74.19	1.09	1.09
DePaul	BE	2.24	2.24	32.26	32.26	-0.80	-0.80
Colgate	Pat	1.77	1.77	35.48	35.48	-0.51	-0.51
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	1.76	1.76	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	1.74	1.74	28.57	28.57	-0.75	-0.75
Holy Cross	Pat	1.71	1.71	41.38	41.38	-0.30	-0.30
Boston College	ACC	1.69	1.69	46.88	46.88	-0.11	-0.11
Brown	Ivy	1.69	1.69	42.31	42.31	-0.26	-0.26
Massachusetts	A10	1.67	1.67	64.52	64.52	0.48	0.48
Bryant	NEC	1.67	1.67	65.52	65.52	0.52	0.52
Mississippi St.	SEC	1.64	1.64	32.26	32.26	-0.58	-0.58
NC Asheville	BSth	1.64	1.64	46.43	46.43	-0.12	-0.12
Fairfield	MAAC	1.64	1.64	57.58	57.58	0.25	0.25
Penn St.	B10	1.64	1.64	30.00	30.00	-0.65	-0.65
New Hampshire	AE	0.25	0.25	28.57	28.57	-0.11	-0.11
Lehigh	Pat	0.21	0.21	68.97	68.97	0.08	0.08
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.19	0.19	29.03	29.03	-0.08	-0.08
Harvard	Ivy	0.19	0.19	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
Army	Pat	0.19	0.19	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.18	0.18	22.58	22.58	-0.10	-0.10
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.18	0.18	70.59	70.59	0.07	0.07
Temple	A10	0.17	0.17	71.88	71.88	0.08	0.08
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.16	0.16	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.16	0.16	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.16	0.16	29.63	29.63	-0.07	-0.07
Columbia	Ivy	0.16	0.16	38.46	38.46	-0.04	-0.04
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.15	0.15	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.15	0.15	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.15	0.15	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.15	0.15	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Monmouth	NEC	0.15	0.15	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.15	0.15	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.14	0.14	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.13	0.13	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.13	0.13	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.13	0.13	59.26	59.26	0.02	0.02
Navy	Pat	0.13	0.13	23.33	23.33	-0.07	-0.07
Longwood	BSth	0.13	0.13	19.35	19.35	-0.08	-0.08
Duquesne	A10	0.13	0.13	26.67	26.67	-0.06	-0.06
American	Pat	0.13	0.13	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Bucknell	Pat	0.13	0.13	84.38	84.38	0.09	0.09
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.13	0.13	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.13	0.13	70.00	70.00	0.05	0.05
Tennessee	SEC	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.13	0.13	17.24	17.24	-0.08	-0.08
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.13	0.13	7.14	7.14	-0.11	-0.11
George Washington	A10	0.13	0.13	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Purdue	B10	0.13	0.13	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.13	0.13	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Yale	Ivy	0.11	0.11	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Chicago St.	GWC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Maine	AE	0.11	0.11	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Indiana	B10	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
Michigan	B10	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Auburn	SEC	0.10	0.10	28.12	28.12	-0.04	-0.04
New Mexico	MWC	0.10	0.10	85.29	85.29	0.07	0.07
Stony Brook	AE	0.10	0.10	76.67	76.67	0.05	0.05
Washington	P12	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Wagner	NEC	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
Detroit	Horz	0.10	0.10	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.10	0.10	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
New Orleans	ind	0.09	0.09	18.18	18.18	-0.06	-0.06
Cornell	Ivy	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.08	0.08	6.90	6.90	-0.07	-0.07
Northwestern	B10	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Vermont	AE	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Butler	A10	0.08	0.08	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Albany	AE	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Wisconsin	B10	0.08	0.08	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Dayton	A10	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Long Island	NEC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.07	0.07	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.07	0.07	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Siena	MAAC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Duke	ACC	0.07	0.07	84.38	84.38	0.05	0.05
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.07	0.07	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Virginia	ACC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.05	-0.05
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.06	35.71	35.71	-0.02	-0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.06	0.06	42.31	42.31	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Winthrop	BSth	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.05	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.05	0.05	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Elon	SC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	10.00	10.00	-0.04	-0.04
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Florida International	SB	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
St. Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	81.25	81.25	0.02	0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Boston University	AE	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	67.86	67.86	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Southern California	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Brigham Young	WCC	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Memphis	CUSA	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Samford	SC	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01