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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Providence

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:40.0
Current RPI:40
Expected SOS:50
Current SOS:50
Current Record:23-10
Expected Record:23-10
Current Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:37
Expected OOC SOS:211



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-1040.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Providence.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Harvard (193.0)IvyH76-64W100%0.0
11-18Illinois (149.0)B10H60-59W100%0.0
11-21Brown (312.0)IvyH94-73W100%0.0
11-23NJIT (207.0)ASunH83-76W100%0.0
11-26Evansville (93.0)MVCN74-64W100%0.0
11-27Arizona (26.0)P12N65-69W100%0.0
11-29Michigan St. (12.0)B10N64-77L0%0.0
12-2Hartford (292.0)AEH89-66W100%0.0
12-5Rhode Island (119.0)A10A72-74W100%0.0
12-9Boston College (250.0)ACCH66-51W100%0.0
12-12Bryant (320.0)NECH74-67W100%0.0
12-19Rider (242.0)MAACH73-65W100%0.0
12-21Massachusetts (171.0)A10A66-90W100%0.0
12-31Butler (57.0)BEA73-81W100%0.0
1-2St. John's (246.0)BEH83-65W100%0.0
1-5Marquette (110.0)BEH64-65L0%0.0
1-12Creighton (100.0)BEA48-50W100%0.0
1-16Seton Hall (19.0)BEH72-81L0%0.0
1-19Butler (57.0)BEH71-68W100%0.0
1-24Villanova (4.0)BEA76-82W100%0.0
1-26Xavier (7.0)BEH68-75L0%0.0
1-30Georgetown (106.0)BEA69-73W100%0.0
2-2DePaul (198.0)BEA77-70L0%0.0
2-6Villanova (4.0)BEH60-72L0%0.0
2-10Marquette (110.0)BEA96-91L0%0.0
2-13Georgetown (106.0)BEH75-72W100%0.0
2-17Xavier (7.0)BEA85-74L0%0.0
2-25Seton Hall (19.0)BEA70-52L0%0.0
2-27DePaul (198.0)BEH87-66W100%0.0
3-2Creighton (100.0)BEH70-66W100%0.0
3-5St. John's (246.0)BEA76-90W100%0.0
3-10Butler (57.0)BEN74-60W100%0.0
3-11Villanova (4.0)BEN76-68L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Providence's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Providence's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Providence.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ProvidenceBE26.3926.3967.3267.329.149.14
VillanovaBE5.445.4487.1087.104.044.04
ButlerBE5.345.3475.0075.002.672.67
GeorgetownBE4.054.0548.3948.39-0.13-0.13
Seton HallBE4.044.0474.1974.191.961.96
MarquetteBE3.983.9858.0658.060.640.64
XavierBE3.973.9783.3383.332.652.65
CreightonBE3.953.9560.0060.000.790.79
St. John'sBE3.943.9424.1424.14-2.04-2.04
DePaulBE3.923.9227.5927.59-1.76-1.76
BrownIvy1.661.6626.9226.92-0.77-0.77
MassachusettsA101.661.6645.1645.16-0.16-0.16
HarvardIvy1.641.6444.4444.44-0.18-0.18
Rhode IslandA101.641.6454.8454.840.160.16
BryantNEC1.621.6224.1424.14-0.84-0.84
Boston CollegeACC1.561.5622.5822.58-0.86-0.86
NJITASun1.561.5655.1755.170.160.16
RiderMAAC1.561.5640.6240.62-0.29-0.29
Michigan St.B101.561.5684.8584.851.091.09
HartfordAE1.541.5429.0329.03-0.65-0.65
IllinoisB101.541.5445.4545.45-0.14-0.14
ArizonaP121.521.5278.1278.120.850.85
EvansvilleMVC1.521.5275.0075.000.760.76
RutgersB100.230.2319.3519.35-0.14-0.14
YaleIvy0.210.2177.7877.780.110.11
DartmouthIvy0.210.2133.3333.33-0.07-0.07
La SalleA100.180.1826.6726.67-0.09-0.09
NebraskaB100.180.1847.0647.06-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.180.1862.5062.500.050.05
PennIvy0.180.1837.0437.04-0.05-0.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.170.1767.7467.740.060.06
FordhamA100.170.1755.1755.170.020.02
IUPUISum0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
IndianaB100.160.1678.1278.120.090.09
PurdueB100.160.1676.4776.470.090.09
StanfordP120.160.1648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.160.1679.4179.410.100.10
MarylandB100.160.1675.0075.000.080.08
NiagaraMAAC0.150.1521.8821.88-0.08-0.08
MaineAE0.140.1426.6726.67-0.07-0.07
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.140.1469.7069.700.060.06
SyracuseACC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
OklahomaB120.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
TempleAmer0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
Penn St.B100.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Arizona St.P120.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.140.1465.5265.520.040.04
IowaB100.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
PrincetonIvy0.130.1377.7877.780.070.07
Central ConnecticutNEC0.130.1313.7913.79-0.09-0.09
New HampshireAE0.120.1258.6258.620.020.02
StetsonASun0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
UMBCAE0.120.1221.8821.88-0.07-0.07
CincinnatiAmer0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
DaytonA100.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
MichiganB100.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.120.123.453.45-0.11-0.11
BradleyMVC0.110.1112.9012.90-0.09-0.09
MonmouthMAAC0.110.1179.4179.410.070.07
Ohio St.B100.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
CornellIvy0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Holy CrossPat0.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Miami FLACC0.100.1078.1278.120.050.05
North FloridaASun0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
AlbanyAE0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Stony BrookAE0.100.1080.0080.000.060.06
UMass LowellAE0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
DukeACC0.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
DrakeMVC0.090.0920.0020.00-0.06-0.06
NorthwesternB100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
USCP120.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
MissouriSEC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
DelawareCAA0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Georgia TechACC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
VirginiaACC0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
MinnesotaB100.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
TennesseeSEC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
VMISC0.070.0722.2222.22-0.04-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.070.0724.2424.24-0.04-0.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0710.7110.71-0.06-0.06
ClemsonACC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Saint LouisA100.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
VCUA100.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Notre DameACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
IonaMAAC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
MississippiSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
AkronMAC0.070.0775.7675.760.030.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
NortheasternCAA0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0556.0056.000.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0513.3313.33-0.03-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0529.1729.17-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
LSUSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
TroySB0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0576.6776.670.020.02
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
BYUWCC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
LafayettePat0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0262.8662.860.010.01
PittsburghACC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
TCUB120.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0222.8622.86-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0220.8320.83-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
PacificWCC0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0211.1111.11-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
UtahP120.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
OaklandHorz0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
South DakotaSum0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00