live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Providence

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:32.0
Current RPI:32
Expected SOS:8
Current SOS:8
Current Record:21-13
Expected Record:21-13
Current Conf Record:12-9
Expected Conf Record:12-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-1
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:93
Expected OOC SOS:112



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1332.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Providence.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Houston Baptist (345.0)SlndH84-55W100%0.0
11-13Minnesota (171.0)B10H74-86L0%0.0
11-16Washington (71.0)P12N70-77W100%0.0
11-17Saint Louis (148.0)A10N90-63W100%0.0
11-22Belmont (81.0)OVCH66-65W100%0.0
11-25Boston College (96.0)ACCH86-66W100%0.0
11-29Rider (69.0)MAACH88-84W100%0.0
12-2Rhode Island (19.0)A10A75-68L0%0.0
12-6Brown (298.0)IvyH77-72W100%0.0
12-9Massachusetts (240.0)A10A72-63L0%0.0
12-17Stony Brook (208.0)AEH62-60W100%0.0
12-20Houston (18.0)AmerN59-70L0%0.0
12-22Sacred Heart (321.0)NECH89-75W100%0.0
12-28St. John's (92.0)BEA72-94W100%0.0
12-31Creighton (44.0)BEA83-64L0%0.0
1-3Marquette (58.0)BEH90-95L0%0.0
1-6Xavier (3.0)BEH81-72W100%0.0
1-12DePaul (186.0)BEA64-71W100%0.0
1-15Butler (41.0)BEH70-60W100%0.0
1-20Creighton (44.0)BEH85-71W100%0.0
1-23Villanova (2.0)BEA89-69L0%0.0
1-31Seton Hall (31.0)BEA73-57L0%0.0
2-3Marquette (58.0)BEA75-77W100%0.0
2-6Georgetown (169.0)BEH73-69W100%0.0
2-10DePaul (186.0)BEH63-80L0%0.0
2-14Villanova (2.0)BEH76-71W100%0.0
2-17Butler (41.0)BEA69-54L0%0.0
2-21Seton Hall (31.0)BEH77-89L0%0.0
2-24Georgetown (169.0)BEA69-74W100%0.0
2-28Xavier (3.0)BEA84-74L0%0.0
3-3St. John's (92.0)BEH61-57W100%0.0
3-8Creighton (44.0)BEN68-72W100%0.0
3-9Xavier (3.0)BEN72-75W100%0.0
3-10Villanova (2.0)BEN76-66L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Providence's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Providence's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Providence.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ProvidenceBE26.4726.4759.5959.595.085.08
VillanovaBE5.345.3490.3290.324.304.30
XavierBE5.315.3190.0090.004.254.25
CreightonBE5.235.2367.8667.861.871.87
St. John'sBE3.953.9550.0050.000.000.00
ButlerBE3.953.9561.2961.290.890.89
MarquetteBE3.933.9360.0060.000.790.79
Seton HallBE3.883.8863.3363.331.031.03
DePaulBE3.863.8634.4834.48-1.20-1.20
GeorgetownBE3.853.8553.5753.570.280.28
Rhode IslandA101.611.6177.4277.420.880.88
Saint LouisA101.581.5851.6151.610.050.05
MassachusettsA101.561.5637.5037.50-0.39-0.39
Sacred HeartNEC1.541.5431.0331.03-0.58-0.58
RiderMAAC1.541.5473.3373.330.720.72
BelmontOVC1.521.5275.0075.000.760.76
BrownIvy1.521.5240.0040.00-0.30-0.30
Stony BrookAE1.501.5040.0040.00-0.30-0.30
Boston CollegeACC1.501.5057.5857.580.230.23
HoustonAmer1.491.4978.1278.120.840.84
Houston BaptistSlnd1.491.4911.1111.11-1.16-1.16
MinnesotaB101.491.4945.1645.16-0.14-0.14
WashingtonP121.491.4964.5264.520.430.43
La SalleA100.250.2540.6240.62-0.05-0.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
NorthwesternB100.220.2245.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.190.1943.7543.75-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.180.1868.7568.750.070.07
VCUA100.180.1854.5554.550.020.02
George WashingtonA100.180.1845.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.170.1743.7543.75-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.170.1726.9226.92-0.08-0.08
MaineAE0.160.1613.3313.33-0.12-0.12
RichmondA100.160.1637.5037.50-0.04-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.160.1688.2488.240.120.12
Morehead St.OVC0.160.1622.2222.22-0.09-0.09
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
BaylorB120.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
Oregon St.P120.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
DavidsonA100.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
DaytonA100.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.140.1482.3582.350.090.09
Arizona St.P120.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
WisconsinB100.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.130.1388.2488.240.100.10
Northern IowaMVC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
PennIvy0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
Michigan St.B100.120.1287.8887.880.090.09
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.120.1216.6716.67-0.08-0.08
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.129.689.68-0.10-0.10
WagnerNEC0.120.1270.0070.000.050.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.120.1260.7160.710.030.03
HartfordAE0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
VermontAE0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
IonaMAAC0.120.1260.6160.610.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
RutgersB100.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
ColoradoP120.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
George MasonA100.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.Amer0.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
HofstraCAA0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.100.1023.0823.08-0.06-0.06
HarvardIvy0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
USC UpstateASun0.090.0910.7110.71-0.07-0.07
Virginia TechACC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.090.0964.7164.710.030.03
SyracuseACC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0920.0020.00-0.06-0.06
IndianaB100.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
MarylandB100.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
DuquesneA100.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Notre DameACC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
UtahP120.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
LafayettePat0.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0969.7069.700.030.03
BryantNEC0.080.089.689.68-0.06-0.06
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0712.5012.50-0.06-0.06
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0732.0032.00-0.03-0.03
NJITASun0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
AlbanyAE0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
IllinoisB100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
FordhamA100.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
LSUSEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
SeattleWAC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
DukeACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
LouisvilleACC0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
Texas TechB120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.070.0782.7682.760.040.04
Ohio St.B100.070.0775.0075.000.030.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Kent St.MAC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Miami FLACC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
CornellIvy0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0515.6215.62-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.056.676.67-0.04-0.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
AmericanPat0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.050.053.333.33-0.04-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
IowaB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Washington St.P120.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.040.0493.9493.940.040.04
Austin PeayOVC0.040.0453.3353.330.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.040.0431.0331.03-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.040.0467.7467.740.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.040.0462.5062.500.010.01
LipscombASun0.040.0468.9768.970.020.02
Portland St.BSky0.040.0456.6756.670.010.01
SMUAmer0.040.0451.5251.520.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.040.0431.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.040.0446.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
TexasB120.040.0457.5857.580.010.01
TulaneAmer0.040.0445.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.040.0435.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.040.0471.8871.880.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.040.0464.5264.520.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.040.0440.6240.62-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.038.008.00-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Texas St.SB0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
BucknellPat0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
CampbellBSth0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
DrakeMVC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
KansasB120.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
MontanaBSky0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
UC DavisBW0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
USCP120.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
BYUWCC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Green BayHorz0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
MemphisAmer0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.020.0216.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
TCUB120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
ColgatePat0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.020.0271.4371.430.010.01
PittsburghACC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01