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Through games of Feb 4, 2016.


Providence

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:41.3
Current RPI:29
Expected SOS:60
Current SOS:60
Current Record:18-5
Expected Record:22-9
Current Conf Record:6-4
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:29
Expected OOC SOS:189



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-517.20.34%
25-621.33.16%
24-726.413.00%
23-833.827.74%
22-943.630.82%
21-1054.117.92%
20-1164.75.93%
19-1275.60.98%
18-1385.10.10%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Providence.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Harvard (189.0)IvyH76-64W100%0.0
11-18Illinois (158.8)B10H60-59W100%0.0
11-21Brown (295.6)IvyH94-73W100%0.0
11-23NJIT (192.4)ASunH83-76W100%0.0
11-26Evansville (74.5)MVCN74-64W100%0.0
11-27Arizona (28.7)P12N65-69W100%0.0
11-29Michigan St. (19.2)B10N64-77L0%0.0
12-2Hartford (313.8)AEH89-66W100%0.0
12-5Rhode Island (105.0)A10A72-74W100%0.0
12-9Boston College (230.7)ACCH66-51W100%0.0
12-12Bryant (313.1)NECH74-67W100%0.0
12-19Rider (225.8)MAACH73-65W100%0.0
12-21Massachusetts (191.8)A10A66-90W100%0.0
12-31Butler (54.1)BEA73-81W100%0.0
1-2St. John's (224.6)BEH83-65W100%0.0
1-5Marquette (119.8)BEH64-65L0%0.0
1-12Creighton (92.6)BEA48-50W100%0.0
1-16Seton Hall (52.9)BEH72-81L0%0.0
1-19Butler (54.1)BEH71-68W100%0.0
1-24Villanova (4.4)BEA76-82W100%0.0
1-26Xavier (7.5)BEH68-75L0%0.0
1-30Georgetown (69.4)BEA69-73W100%0.0
2-2DePaul (165.8)BEA77-70L0%0.0
2-6Villanova (4.4)BEH0-029%-6.2
2-10Marquette (119.8)BEA0-055%1.4
2-13Georgetown (69.4)BEH0-065%4.2
2-17Xavier (7.5)BEA0-019%-9.6
2-25Seton Hall (52.9)BEA0-034%-4.4
2-27DePaul (165.8)BEH0-086%11.7
3-2Creighton (92.6)BEH0-062%3.4
3-5St. John's (224.6)BEA0-081%9.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Providence's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Providence's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Providence.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ProvidenceBE26.2426.3073.8768.8312.539.91
GeorgetownBE2.774.1359.0955.920.500.49
CreightonBE2.724.1063.6461.820.740.97
St. John'sBE2.714.1028.5725.47-1.16-2.01
MarquetteBE2.674.0863.6455.440.730.44
VillanovaBE2.664.0890.4888.752.153.16
ButlerBE4.744.0775.0071.232.371.73
DePaulBE2.714.0733.3333.37-0.90-1.35
Seton HallBE2.614.0771.4367.641.121.44
XavierBE2.664.0790.4883.992.162.77
BrownIvy2.321.7831.2530.86-0.87-0.68
HarvardIvy2.321.7541.1844.45-0.41-0.19
MassachusettsA102.331.7545.0041.25-0.23-0.31
BryantNEC2.351.7227.2728.54-1.07-0.74
Rhode IslandA102.341.7257.1457.830.330.27
Boston CollegeACC2.281.6733.3327.52-0.76-0.75
NJITASun2.221.6754.5556.470.200.22
RiderMAAC2.271.6740.9143.68-0.41-0.21
Michigan St.B102.271.6681.8280.761.441.02
HartfordAE2.221.6427.2727.39-1.01-0.74
IllinoisB102.221.6450.0045.990.00-0.13
ArizonaP122.171.6181.8279.801.380.96
EvansvilleMVC2.171.6177.2778.661.190.92
RutgersB100.240.2622.7320.68-0.13-0.15
YaleIvy0.320.2270.5972.600.130.10
DartmouthIvy0.260.2235.2933.93-0.08-0.07
WisconsinB100.190.2160.8755.900.040.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.240.1934.7841.60-0.07-0.03
WagnerNEC0.190.1961.9063.360.050.05
FordhamA100.200.1957.8954.300.030.02
IndianaB100.140.1882.6177.360.090.10
La SalleA100.200.1821.0520.90-0.11-0.11
NebraskaB100.240.1852.1751.550.010.01
PennIvy0.110.1731.2532.68-0.04-0.06
NiagaraMAAC0.160.1626.0926.65-0.08-0.08
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.260.1640.0042.55-0.05-0.02
MaineAE0.210.1636.3635.58-0.06-0.05
George WashingtonA100.200.1677.2771.670.110.07
IUPUISum0.190.1641.6740.25-0.03-0.03
Penn St.B100.150.1647.8343.65-0.01-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.200.1681.8277.420.130.09
StanfordP120.150.1652.6347.730.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.150.1666.6762.710.050.04
Arizona St.P120.140.1652.1750.250.010.00
MarylandB100.190.1686.9681.750.140.10
ColumbiaIvy0.110.1568.4265.480.040.04
PrincetonIvy0.110.1468.7573.150.040.07
Central ConnecticutNEC0.260.1413.6413.79-0.19-0.10
New HampshireAE0.210.1452.6351.510.010.00
UMBCAE0.140.1420.8325.00-0.08-0.07
BradleyMVC0.140.138.709.78-0.12-0.11
OklahomaB120.160.1390.4884.910.130.09
DaytonA100.100.1385.7181.210.070.08
MichiganB100.140.1372.7367.970.070.05
Chicago St.WAC0.140.134.557.91-0.13-0.11
IowaB100.140.1381.8279.900.090.08
CornellIvy0.060.1247.0643.12-0.00-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.220.1140.9139.71-0.04-0.02
North FloridaASun0.140.1168.1869.350.050.04
StetsonASun0.090.1125.0029.75-0.05-0.04
UMass LowellAE0.190.1133.3332.89-0.06-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.150.1173.9173.090.070.05
DrakeMVC0.100.1122.7324.84-0.05-0.05
Indiana St.MVC0.190.1154.5555.310.020.01
Missouri St.MVC0.150.1140.9138.03-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1185.7176.020.070.06
Wichita St.MVC0.140.1176.1979.640.080.06
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1152.3853.800.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.1140.9139.23-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.140.1136.3630.98-0.04-0.04
TempleAmer0.100.1161.9058.400.020.02
USCP120.100.1178.2673.090.050.05
NorthwesternB100.100.1166.6763.490.030.03
PurdueB100.150.1182.6178.230.100.06
DukeACC0.140.1072.7369.900.070.04
MonmouthMAAC0.050.1078.2680.340.030.06
Ohio St.B100.090.1058.3354.130.020.01
Boston UniversityPat0.160.0852.1754.440.010.01
AuburnSEC0.110.0842.8637.22-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.110.0856.5258.380.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.0845.0049.60-0.01-0.00
MaristMAAC0.110.0819.0521.34-0.07-0.05
AlbanyAE0.090.0873.9175.000.050.04
South FloridaAmer0.100.0820.8320.11-0.06-0.05
St. Francis PANEC0.140.0847.6249.34-0.01-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.090.0880.0082.450.060.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.0850.0050.870.000.00
MississippiSEC0.100.0863.6456.050.030.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.0838.1047.48-0.02-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.090.0831.8235.17-0.03-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.090.0822.7326.19-0.05-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.100.0868.1863.240.040.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.085.267.23-0.09-0.07
Long Beach St.BW0.100.0842.8651.32-0.010.00
Miami FLACC0.150.0880.9575.610.090.04
Saint LouisA100.150.0838.1033.39-0.04-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.100.0870.0069.090.040.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0845.4542.13-0.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.090.0869.5770.030.040.03
ClemsonACC0.050.0863.6462.330.010.02
LouisvilleACC0.090.0881.8277.490.060.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.140.0838.1037.49-0.03-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.140.0831.8232.32-0.05-0.03
SienaMAAC0.090.0865.2266.710.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.140.0866.6766.030.050.03
DelawareCAA0.100.0822.7323.65-0.05-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.050.0854.5552.770.000.00
IonaMAAC0.140.0857.1457.700.020.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0827.2732.87-0.04-0.03
MinnesotaB100.090.0826.0927.82-0.05-0.03
Notre DameACC0.150.0868.1863.710.050.02
VirginiaACC0.100.0881.8276.020.060.04
HowardMEAC0.110.0640.0042.58-0.02-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0647.6247.86-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0622.7324.28-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.090.0621.7427.63-0.05-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0623.8125.04-0.02-0.03
KansasB120.110.0580.9577.010.070.03
NortheasternCAA0.110.0547.8348.71-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0557.1452.310.010.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0590.0086.110.040.04
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0560.0056.080.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0552.1747.620.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0553.3355.190.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0528.5728.87-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0541.6746.85-0.01-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0552.1754.150.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0530.0032.46-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0525.0029.52-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.0518.1822.84-0.06-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0575.0073.480.020.03
Southern UtahBSky0.100.0515.7916.40-0.07-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.100.0550.0048.260.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.100.0535.0031.39-0.03-0.02
TroySB0.050.0520.0023.76-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.0962.730.010.01
VMISC0.100.0516.6718.98-0.07-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0547.6247.96-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0535.0036.61-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0554.5555.190.000.01
DavidsonA100.050.0557.8955.420.010.01
DuquesneA100.000.0566.6758.770.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0560.0057.300.020.01
George MasonA100.000.0536.3635.32-0.00-0.02
RichmondA100.050.0552.3853.670.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.100.0572.7371.670.040.02
VCUA100.000.0577.2776.770.000.03
AkronMAC0.050.0580.9579.160.030.03
CaliforniaP120.050.0563.6461.820.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0543.4845.72-0.01-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0536.3642.18-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.0522.7323.38-0.05-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0572.7372.460.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0515.7922.52-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0557.1457.920.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0554.5553.540.010.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0516.6720.72-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0550.0056.530.000.01
LSUSEC0.050.0563.6459.440.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0545.0043.24-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0586.3680.670.040.03
North TexasCUSA0.050.0530.0029.47-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0526.3227.35-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0552.3853.610.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0525.0022.59-0.02-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0547.6257.24-0.000.01
UCLAP120.050.0556.5253.330.010.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0563.6465.480.010.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0575.0071.270.020.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0514.2913.98-0.03-0.04
WashingtonP120.050.0568.1862.170.020.01
Washington St.P120.090.0538.1033.46-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0527.7829.23-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0328.5734.73-0.03-0.01
SMUAmer0.060.0390.4885.540.050.02
BYUWCC0.060.0369.5773.040.020.01
WoffordSC0.060.0338.1043.38-0.01-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0366.6761.680.020.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0372.7369.690.020.01
LafayettePat0.050.0323.8125.23-0.02-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0335.2944.50-0.01-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0326.3233.83-0.02-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0350.0054.850.000.00
ArmyPat0.050.0354.5555.990.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0316.6724.28-0.03-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0317.3921.76-0.03-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.050.0347.6252.91-0.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0329.4138.46-0.02-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.034.7614.00-0.04-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0314.2916.31-0.03-0.02
UCFAmer0.050.0355.0047.190.01-0.00
AmericanPat0.050.0331.8232.71-0.02-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0321.7424.61-0.03-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0325.0029.29-0.02-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0385.7184.560.030.02
ColoradoP120.000.0372.7366.980.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0338.8943.23-0.01-0.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0368.1867.800.020.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0323.8128.31-0.02-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0377.2776.120.030.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0372.7368.010.020.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0355.5650.840.010.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0372.7368.840.020.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0321.0529.17-0.03-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0352.1749.340.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0361.9060.410.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.035.2610.18-0.04-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0318.7526.10-0.03-0.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0366.6767.310.020.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0354.5561.940.000.01
OregonP120.050.0381.8278.220.030.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0360.0054.580.010.00
PacificWCC0.050.0321.0524.60-0.03-0.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0380.0070.310.030.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0339.1339.48-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.050.0345.4537.84-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0381.8278.320.030.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0352.3857.440.000.00
UtahP120.000.0372.7368.550.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0380.9583.030.030.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0352.1747.260.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0325.0029.91-0.02-0.01