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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Providence

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:22.0
Current RPI:22
Expected SOS:5
Current SOS:5
Current Record:22-11
Expected Record:22-11
Current Conf Record:12-8
Expected Conf Record:12-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-1
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:17
Expected OOC SOS:19



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-1122.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Providence.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Albany (99.0)AEH64-60W100%0.0
11-17Binghamton (332.0)AEH66-45W100%0.0
11-20Navy (252.0)PatH88-51W100%0.0
11-22Florida St. (110.0)ACCN80-54W100%0.0
11-23Notre Dame (16.0)ACCN74-75W100%0.0
11-28Yale (64.0)IvyH72-66W100%0.0
11-30Kentucky (1.0)SECA58-38L0%0.0
12-5Boston College (165.0)ACCA69-60L0%0.0
12-8Brown (248.0)IvyH67-77L0%0.0
12-10Rhode Island (66.0)A10H68-60W100%0.0
12-13Stony Brook (107.0)AEH79-61W100%0.0
12-20Massachusetts (80.0)A10H85-65W100%0.0
12-22Miami FL (65.0)ACCN76-62W100%0.0
12-31Creighton (151.0)BEH65-53W100%0.0
1-3Marquette (147.0)BEA75-66L0%0.0
1-6Butler (31.0)BEA62-66W100%0.0
1-10Georgetown (25.0)BEH60-57W100%0.0
1-14St. John's (44.0)BEH70-83L0%0.0
1-17Creighton (151.0)BEA65-74W100%0.0
1-22Xavier (30.0)BEH69-66W100%0.0
1-29DePaul (197.0)BEH83-72W100%0.0
1-31St. John's (44.0)BEA75-66L0%0.0
2-4Georgetown (25.0)BEA71-74W100%0.0
2-7Xavier (30.0)BEA78-69L0%0.0
2-11Villanova (3.0)BEH68-74L0%0.0
2-14Seton Hall (97.0)BEH69-62W100%0.0
2-18DePaul (197.0)BEA57-84W100%0.0
2-24Villanova (3.0)BEA89-61L0%0.0
3-1Marquette (147.0)BEH77-66W100%0.0
3-4Seton Hall (97.0)BEA66-79W100%0.0
3-7Butler (31.0)BEH64-68L0%0.0
3-12St. John's (44.0)BEA57-74W100%0.0
3-13Villanova (3.0)BEN63-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Providence's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Providence's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Providence.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ProvidenceBE26.3926.3965.3165.318.088.08
VillanovaBE5.445.4493.5593.554.744.74
St. John'sBE5.345.3464.2964.291.531.53
XavierBE4.054.0562.5062.501.011.01
GeorgetownBE4.014.0172.4172.411.801.80
MarquetteBE3.993.9940.0040.00-0.80-0.80
CreightonBE3.983.9845.1645.16-0.38-0.38
ButlerBE3.973.9770.0070.001.591.59
DePaulBE3.923.9240.0040.00-0.78-0.78
Seton HallBE3.923.9255.1755.170.410.41
Notre DameACC1.701.7087.8887.881.291.29
BinghamtonAE1.701.7017.2417.24-1.12-1.12
Boston CollegeACC1.681.6838.7138.71-0.38-0.38
AlbanyAE1.661.6677.4277.420.910.91
Stony BrookAE1.661.6667.7467.740.590.59
Miami FLACC1.651.6565.6265.620.520.52
MassachusettsA101.631.6354.8454.840.160.16
Florida St.ACC1.631.6353.1253.120.100.10
YaleIvy1.591.5968.9768.970.600.60
BrownIvy1.591.5935.7135.71-0.45-0.45
Rhode IslandA101.591.5972.4172.410.710.71
NavyPat1.561.5640.0040.00-0.31-0.31
KentuckySEC1.521.52100.00100.001.521.52
MaineAE0.290.2910.0010.00-0.23-0.23
NJITind0.260.2656.0056.000.030.03
SyracuseACC0.260.2658.0658.060.040.04
UMass LowellAE0.220.2239.2939.29-0.05-0.05
PennIvy0.220.2232.1432.14-0.08-0.08
New HampshireAE0.220.2258.6258.620.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.210.2138.7138.71-0.05-0.05
DukeACC0.210.2187.8887.880.160.16
North CarolinaACC0.210.2168.5768.570.080.08
VermontAE0.190.1956.6756.670.030.03
HartfordAE0.190.1944.8344.83-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.190.1951.5251.520.010.01
FloridaSEC0.190.1948.4848.48-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.180.1874.0774.070.080.08
ColumbiaIvy0.170.1744.4444.44-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.170.1730.0030.00-0.07-0.07
George WashingtonA100.170.1763.6463.640.050.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.160.1641.9441.94-0.03-0.03
LehighPat0.160.1651.7251.720.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
ClemsonACC0.160.1651.6151.610.010.01
UMBCAE0.150.1513.3313.33-0.11-0.11
BucknellPat0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
PittsburghACC0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.140.1475.0075.000.070.07
CornellIvy0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
ColgatePat0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.120.1268.9768.970.050.05
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
TennesseeSEC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
IllinoisB100.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
VCUA100.120.1274.2974.290.060.06
Chicago St.WAC0.120.1217.2417.24-0.08-0.08
VirginiaACC0.110.1190.6290.620.090.09
DartmouthIvy0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
AmericanPat0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
St. BonaventureA100.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Boston UniversityPat0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
IndianaB100.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
WisconsinB100.100.1091.1891.180.080.08
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
NebraskaB100.090.0941.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
OklahomaB120.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
AuburnSEC0.090.0941.1841.18-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0747.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
LafayettePat0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.070.0793.9493.940.060.06
MinnesotaB100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
TowsonCAA0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0765.5265.520.020.02
MississippiSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
DelawareCAA0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
BryantNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
DuquesneA100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
RichmondA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
MercerSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
NevadaMWC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
LSUSEC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0575.8675.860.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.040.0476.4776.470.020.02
IUPUISum0.040.0432.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.040.0483.3383.330.030.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.040.0446.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.040.0486.6786.670.030.03
UTEPCUSA0.040.0468.7568.750.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
IonaMAAC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
MaristMAAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
USCP120.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
West VirginiaB120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
AkronMAC0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0227.2727.27-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
HowardMEAC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.020.000.00-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
TexasB120.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
UCLAP120.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00