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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Providence

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:40.0
Current RPI:40
Expected SOS:54
Current SOS:54
Current Record:23-11
Expected Record:23-11
Current Conf Record:13-8
Expected Conf Record:13-8
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:72
Expected OOC SOS:194



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-1140.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Providence.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Boston College (207.0)ACCH82-78W100%0.0
11-13Brown (229.0)IvyH73-69W100%0.0
11-16Marist (250.0)MAACH93-48W100%0.0
11-18Vermont (101.0)AEH70-49W100%0.0
11-22Vanderbilt (120.0)SECN60-67W100%0.0
11-24La Salle (98.0)A10N63-71W100%0.0
11-25Maryland (78.0)ACCN52-56L0%0.0
11-29Fairfield (289.0)MAACH78-69W100%0.0
12-1Kentucky (17.0)SECN65-79L0%0.0
12-5Rhode Island (155.0)A10A49-50W100%0.0
12-17Yale (147.0)IvyH76-74W100%0.0
12-21Maine (330.0)AEH94-70W100%0.0
12-28Massachusetts (23.0)A10A69-67L0%0.0
12-31Seton Hall (128.0)BEH80-81L0%0.0
1-5Villanova (5.0)BEA91-61L0%0.0
1-8Georgetown (69.0)BEH70-52W100%0.0
1-16St. John's (67.0)BEA83-84W100%0.0
1-18Creighton (10.0)BEH81-68W100%0.0
1-21Butler (150.0)BEH65-56W100%0.0
1-25Xavier (47.0)BEH81-72W100%0.0
1-30Marquette (92.0)BEA61-50L0%0.0
2-1DePaul (154.0)BEA72-77W100%0.0
2-4St. John's (67.0)BEH76-86L0%0.0
2-8Xavier (47.0)BEA59-53L0%0.0
2-10Georgetown (69.0)BEA83-71L0%0.0
2-15DePaul (154.0)BEH84-61W100%0.0
2-18Villanova (5.0)BEH79-82L0%0.0
2-23Butler (150.0)BEA81-87W100%0.0
2-28Seton Hall (128.0)BEA69-74W100%0.0
3-4Marquette (92.0)BEH81-80W100%0.0
3-8Creighton (10.0)BEA88-73L0%0.0
3-13St. John's (67.0)BEA74-79W100%0.0
3-14Seton Hall (128.0)BEN80-74W100%0.0
3-15Creighton (10.0)BEN58-65W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Providence's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Providence's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Providence.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ProvidenceBE26.4726.4767.3367.339.189.18
Seton HallBE5.345.3451.6151.610.170.17
CreightonBE5.335.3383.3383.333.553.55
St. John'sBE5.235.2365.5265.521.621.62
DePaulBE3.933.9338.7138.71-0.89-0.89
XavierBE3.923.9263.3363.331.051.05
VillanovaBE3.903.9086.6786.672.862.86
ButlerBE3.893.8946.4346.43-0.28-0.28
MarquetteBE3.853.8553.3353.330.260.26
GeorgetownBE3.853.8555.1755.170.400.40
Rhode IslandA101.621.6243.3343.33-0.22-0.22
MassachusettsA101.591.5974.1974.190.770.77
La SalleA101.561.5650.0050.000.000.00
VermontAE1.551.5568.9768.970.590.59
YaleIvy1.551.5553.8553.850.120.12
BrownIvy1.551.5553.8553.850.120.12
MaineAE1.541.5418.5218.52-0.97-0.97
VanderbiltSEC1.541.5450.0050.000.000.00
MaristMAAC1.541.5440.0040.00-0.31-0.31
FairfieldMAAC1.521.5222.5822.58-0.83-0.83
MarylandACC1.521.5250.0050.000.000.00
Boston CollegeACC1.521.5223.3323.33-0.81-0.81
KentuckySEC1.491.4969.7069.700.590.59
Saint Joseph'sA100.300.3072.7372.730.140.14
George WashingtonA100.280.2875.0075.000.140.14
New HampshireAE0.250.2517.2417.24-0.16-0.16
DartmouthIvy0.230.2338.4638.46-0.05-0.05
MonmouthMAAC0.230.2334.3834.38-0.07-0.07
NiagaraMAAC0.210.2121.2121.21-0.12-0.12
LSUSEC0.210.2159.3859.380.040.04
PennIvy0.200.2028.5728.57-0.09-0.09
Georgia TechACC0.190.1948.4848.48-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.190.1984.3884.380.130.13
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.180.1845.1645.16-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.180.1856.2556.250.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.180.1860.0060.000.040.04
HartfordAE0.180.1851.5251.520.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.180.1868.7568.750.070.07
QuinnipiacMAAC0.170.1764.5264.520.050.05
NJITind0.170.1736.0036.00-0.05-0.05
FordhamA100.160.1632.2632.26-0.06-0.06
TennesseeSEC0.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.160.1629.0329.03-0.07-0.07
PrincetonIvy0.160.1670.3770.370.060.06
Arizona St.P120.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
HarvardIvy0.160.1686.2186.210.110.11
UMass LowellAE0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
SienaMAAC0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
St. BonaventureA100.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
RiderMAAC0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
BinghamtonAE0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
Saint LouisA100.120.1280.6580.650.070.07
Florida St.ACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
WagnerNEC0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
George MasonA100.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
BucknellPat0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
USCP120.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
WisconsinB100.110.1178.7978.790.070.07
San Diego St.MWC0.110.1187.1087.100.080.08
Chicago St.WAC0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.110.113.703.70-0.10-0.10
UMBCAE0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.1016.1316.13-0.07-0.07
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
LongwoodBSth0.100.1014.2914.29-0.07-0.07
Ball St.MAC0.090.0910.7110.71-0.07-0.07
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
DuquesneA100.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
ElonSC0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
IonaMAAC0.090.0968.7568.750.040.04
KansasB120.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
RichmondA100.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
Penn St.B100.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
RutgersAmer0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
IowaB100.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.0914.8114.81-0.06-0.06
NebraskaB100.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
FloridaSEC0.090.0994.1294.120.080.08
BryantNEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
PurdueB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
NorthwesternB100.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Notre DameACC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
VirginiaACC0.070.0782.3582.350.050.05
ClemsonACC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Ohio St.B100.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
TempleAmer0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
AuburnSEC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
MissouriSEC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.070.0781.8281.820.040.04
Oregon St.P120.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
TexasB120.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
OregonP120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
SamfordSC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.040.0471.8871.880.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
LouisvilleAmer0.040.0485.2985.290.030.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.040.0414.8114.81-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.040.0460.6160.610.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.040.04100.00100.000.040.04
AmericanPat0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
ArizonaP120.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0283.8783.870.020.02
SMUAmer0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
ToledoMAC0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01
WashingtonP120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Green BayHorz0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
BaylorB120.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00