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Through games of Mar 11, 2012.


Providence

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:156.0
Current RPI:156
Expected SOS:97
Current SOS:97
Current Record:15-17
Expected Record:15-17
Current Conf Record:4-15
Expected Conf Record:4-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:130
Expected OOC SOS:331



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-17156.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Providence.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Fairleigh Dickinson (330.0)NECH72-61W100%0.0
11-14Fairfield (115.0)MAACA72-80W100%0.0
11-19Florida A&M (316.0)MEACH87-65W100%0.0
11-22Southern (281.0)SWACH59-53W100%0.0
11-25Iowa St. (33.0)B12N64-54L0%0.0
11-26Northern Iowa (73.0)MVCN62-79L0%0.0
11-29Holy Cross (177.0)PatH82-77W100%0.0
12-1South Carolina (194.0)SECA67-76W100%0.0
12-5Brown (313.0)IvyH80-49W100%0.0
12-8Boston College (244.0)ACCH64-57W100%0.0
12-10Bryant (340.0)NECH72-61W100%0.0
12-20New Hampshire (296.0)AEH67-52W100%0.0
12-23Rhode Island (257.0)A10A61-80W100%0.0
12-27St. John's (159.0)BEA91-67L0%0.0
12-31Georgetown (15.0)BEA49-40L0%0.0
1-4Syracuse (1.0)BEH73-87L0%0.0
1-7Seton Hall (68.0)BEH57-66L0%0.0
1-10Louisville (13.0)BEH90-59W100%0.0
1-14Syracuse (1.0)BEA78-55L0%0.0
1-21Marquette (9.0)BEH72-79L0%0.0
1-25Pittsburgh (96.0)BEA86-74L0%0.0
1-29South Florida (52.0)BEA81-78L0%0.0
2-1Rutgers (163.0)BEH78-67W100%0.0
2-5West Virginia (57.0)BEH84-87L0%0.0
2-7Villanova (121.0)BEA74-72L0%0.0
2-11South Florida (52.0)BEH48-55L0%0.0
2-15Cincinnati (44.0)BEA81-66L0%0.0
2-18Georgetown (15.0)BEH53-63L0%0.0
2-25DePaul (198.0)BEA71-73W100%0.0
2-28Connecticut (32.0)BEH72-70W100%0.0
3-2Notre Dame (39.0)BEA75-69L0%0.0
3-6Seton Hall (68.0)BEN79-47L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Providence's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Providence's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Providence.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ProvidenceBE25.9925.9942.9642.96-3.66-3.66
South FloridaBE3.663.6656.6756.670.490.49
Seton HallBE3.633.6360.0060.000.730.73
SyracuseBE3.633.6393.5593.553.163.16
GeorgetownBE3.633.6371.4371.431.561.56
ConnecticutBE2.272.2762.5062.500.570.57
LouisvilleBE2.242.2476.4776.471.191.19
CincinnatiBE2.202.2069.7069.700.860.86
PittsburghBE2.172.1750.0050.000.000.00
Notre DameBE2.172.1765.6265.620.680.68
VillanovaBE2.172.1738.7138.71-0.49-0.49
St. John'sBE2.122.1238.7138.71-0.48-0.48
MarquetteBE2.122.1277.4277.421.161.16
RutgersBE2.122.1245.1645.16-0.21-0.21
DePaulBE2.122.1240.0040.00-0.42-0.42
West VirginiaBE2.092.0958.0658.060.340.34
Boston CollegeACC1.671.6730.0030.00-0.67-0.67
BryantNEC1.661.666.906.90-1.43-1.43
New HampshireAE1.661.6644.4444.44-0.18-0.18
Holy CrossPat1.661.6653.5753.570.120.12
BrownIvy1.641.6424.1424.14-0.85-0.85
FairfieldMAAC1.641.6459.3859.380.310.31
Florida A&MMEAC1.641.6426.6726.67-0.76-0.76
Rhode IslandA101.611.6123.3323.33-0.86-0.86
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.611.6110.7110.71-1.27-1.27
Iowa St.B121.591.5967.7467.740.560.56
SouthernSWAC1.591.5951.8551.850.060.06
Northern IowaMVC1.591.5956.6756.670.210.21
South CarolinaSEC1.561.5633.3333.33-0.52-0.52
Sacred HeartNEC0.230.2343.7543.75-0.03-0.03
AlbanyAE0.210.2157.5857.580.030.03
MaineAE0.180.1839.2939.29-0.04-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.180.1813.7913.79-0.13-0.13
St. Francis NYNEC0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
YaleIvy0.180.1865.3865.380.060.06
AmericanPat0.160.1664.5264.520.050.05
LehighPat0.160.1678.1278.120.090.09
MonmouthNEC0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
WagnerNEC0.150.1580.6580.650.090.09
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.150.1539.2939.29-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.150.1581.8281.820.100.10
AuburnSEC0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.130.1370.0070.000.050.05
VermontAE0.130.1367.6567.650.050.05
Boston UniversityAE0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
ColumbiaIvy0.130.1346.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.1370.5970.590.050.05
St. Francis PANEC0.130.1320.6920.69-0.08-0.08
ColgatePat0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
HarvardIvy0.130.1386.2186.210.090.09
MemphisCUSA0.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
MaristMAAC0.120.1243.7543.75-0.02-0.02
St. Peter'sMAAC0.120.1216.1316.13-0.08-0.08
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1264.7164.710.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.120.1282.3582.350.080.08
FloridaSEC0.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
FordhamA100.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
ManhattanMAAC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
HartfordAE0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
LafayettePat0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.100.1013.3313.33-0.08-0.08
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
RiceCUSA0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacNEC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.100.1030.7730.77-0.04-0.04
Longwoodind0.100.1022.2222.22-0.06-0.06
PrincetonIvy0.100.1060.7160.710.020.02
BucknellPat0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
Texas A&MB120.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
PennsylvaniaIvy0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1010.3410.34-0.08-0.08
Miami FLACC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
Wake ForestACC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDMAAC0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
TexasB120.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
DaytonA100.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
Old DominionCAA0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
KentuckySEC0.100.1094.1294.120.090.09
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MissouriB120.100.1088.2488.240.070.07
MarshallCUSA0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
RiderMAAC0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Long IslandNEC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
TulaneCUSA0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
MississippiSEC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. LouisA100.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
IUPUISum0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Louisiana St.SEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Penn St.B100.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
La SalleA100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
BaylorB120.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Kansas St.B120.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
George WashingtonA100.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0619.2319.23-0.03-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.060.066.456.45-0.05-0.05
GramblingSWAC0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.050.057.147.14-0.05-0.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0534.6234.62-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
NC GreensboroSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
George MasonCAA0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
CreightonMVC0.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0583.8783.870.030.03
AkronMAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
DukeACC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TempleA100.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonSC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
MarylandACC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
MercerASun0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Chicago St.GWC0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
XavierA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
OhioMAC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.030.033.123.12-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
Southern UtahSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
CharlotteA100.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
ElonSC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.CAA0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
North FloridaASun0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.030.0379.4179.410.010.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.030.0318.7518.75-0.02-0.02
St. Mary'sWCC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
StetsonASun0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
WoffordSC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
LipscombASun0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
WashingtonP120.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0216.1316.13-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
IndianaB100.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
NC AshevilleBSth0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0239.3939.39-0.00-0.00
ButlerHorz0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
LamarSlnd0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.026.906.90-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckySB0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00