Providence

Conference:	BE
Expected RPI:	32.0
Current RPI:	32
Expected SOS:	8
Current SOS:	8
Current Record:	21-13
Expected Record:	21-13
Current Conf Record:	12-9
Expected Conf Record:	12-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-1
Current OOC Record:	9-4
Expected OOC Record:	9-4
Expected OOC RPI:	93
Expected OOC SOS:	112

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
21-13	32.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Providence.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Houston Baptist (345.0)	Slnd	H	84-55	W	100%
11-13	Minnesota (171.0)	B10	H	74-86	L	0%
11-16	Washington (71.0)	P12	N	70-77	W	100%
11-17	Saint Louis (148.0)	A10	N	90-63	W	100%
11-22	Belmont (81.0)	OVC	H	66-65	W	100%
11-25	Boston College (96.0)	ACC	H	86-66	W	100%
11-29	Rider (69.0)	MAAC	H	88-84	W	100%
12-2	Rhode Island (19.0)	A10	A	75-68	L	0%
12-6	Brown (298.0)	Ivy	H	77-72	W	100%
12-9	Massachusetts (240.0)	A10	A	72-63	L	0%
12-17	Stony Brook (208.0)	AE	H	62-60	W	100%
12-20	Houston (18.0)	Amer	N	59-70	L	0%
12-22	Sacred Heart (321.0)	NEC	H	89-75	W	100%
12-28	St. John's (92.0)	BE	A	72-94	W	100%
12-31	Creighton (44.0)	BE	A	83-64	L	0%
1-3	Marquette (58.0)	BE	H	90-95	L	0%
1-6	Xavier (3.0)	BE	H	81-72	W	100%
1-12	DePaul (186.0)	BE	A	64-71	W	100%
1-15	Butler (41.0)	BE	H	70-60	W	100%
1-20	Creighton (44.0)	BE	H	85-71	W	100%
1-23	Villanova (2.0)	BE	A	89-69	L	0%
1-31	Seton Hall (31.0)	BE	A	73-57	L	0%
2-3	Marquette (58.0)	BE	A	75-77	W	100%
2-6	Georgetown (169.0)	BE	H	73-69	W	100%
2-10	DePaul (186.0)	BE	H	63-80	L	0%
2-14	Villanova (2.0)	BE	H	76-71	W	100%
2-17	Butler (41.0)	BE	A	69-54	L	0%
2-21	Seton Hall (31.0)	BE	H	77-89	L	0%
2-24	Georgetown (169.0)	BE	A	69-74	W	100%
2-28	Xavier (3.0)	BE	A	84-74	L	0%
3-3	St. John's (92.0)	BE	H	61-57	W	100%
3-8	Creighton (44.0)	BE	N	68-72	W	100%
3-9	Xavier (3.0)	BE	N	72-75	W	100%
3-10	Villanova (2.0)	BE	N	76-66	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Providence's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Providence's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Providence.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Providence	BE	26.47	26.47	59.59	59.59	5.08	5.08
Villanova	BE	5.34	5.34	90.32	90.32	4.30	4.30
Xavier	BE	5.31	5.31	90.00	90.00	4.25	4.25
Creighton	BE	5.23	5.23	67.86	67.86	1.87	1.87
St. John's	BE	3.95	3.95	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Butler	BE	3.95	3.95	61.29	61.29	0.89	0.89
Marquette	BE	3.93	3.93	60.00	60.00	0.79	0.79
Seton Hall	BE	3.88	3.88	63.33	63.33	1.03	1.03
DePaul	BE	3.86	3.86	34.48	34.48	-1.20	-1.20
Georgetown	BE	3.85	3.85	53.57	53.57	0.28	0.28
Rhode Island	A10	1.61	1.61	77.42	77.42	0.88	0.88
Saint Louis	A10	1.58	1.58	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
Massachusetts	A10	1.56	1.56	37.50	37.50	-0.39	-0.39
Sacred Heart	NEC	1.54	1.54	31.03	31.03	-0.58	-0.58
Rider	MAAC	1.54	1.54	73.33	73.33	0.72	0.72
Belmont	OVC	1.52	1.52	75.00	75.00	0.76	0.76
Brown	Ivy	1.52	1.52	40.00	40.00	-0.30	-0.30
Stony Brook	AE	1.50	1.50	40.00	40.00	-0.30	-0.30
Boston College	ACC	1.50	1.50	57.58	57.58	0.23	0.23
Houston	Amer	1.49	1.49	78.12	78.12	0.84	0.84
Houston Baptist	Slnd	1.49	1.49	11.11	11.11	-1.16	-1.16
Minnesota	B10	1.49	1.49	45.16	45.16	-0.14	-0.14
Washington	P12	1.49	1.49	64.52	64.52	0.43	0.43
La Salle	A10	0.25	0.25	40.62	40.62	-0.05	-0.05
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.22	0.22	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.22	0.22	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.19	0.19	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.18	0.18	68.75	68.75	0.07	0.07
VCU	A10	0.18	0.18	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
George Washington	A10	0.18	0.18	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.17	0.17	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.17	0.17	26.92	26.92	-0.08	-0.08
Maine	AE	0.16	0.16	13.33	13.33	-0.12	-0.12
Richmond	A10	0.16	0.16	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Gonzaga	WCC	0.16	0.16	88.24	88.24	0.12	0.12
Morehead St.	OVC	0.16	0.16	22.22	22.22	-0.09	-0.09
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.14	0.14	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.14	0.14	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Davidson	A10	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Dayton	A10	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.14	0.14	82.35	82.35	0.09	0.09
Arizona St.	P12	0.14	0.14	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Wisconsin	B10	0.14	0.14	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.13	0.13	88.24	88.24	0.10	0.10
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.13	0.13	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UMass Lowell	AE	0.12	0.12	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Penn	Ivy	0.12	0.12	74.19	74.19	0.06	0.06
Michigan St.	B10	0.12	0.12	87.88	87.88	0.09	0.09
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.12	0.12	16.67	16.67	-0.08	-0.08
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.12	0.12	9.68	9.68	-0.10	-0.10
Wagner	NEC	0.12	0.12	70.00	70.00	0.05	0.05
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.12	0.12	60.71	60.71	0.03	0.03
Hartford	AE	0.12	0.12	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Vermont	AE	0.12	0.12	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Iona	MAAC	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.12	0.12	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Rutgers	B10	0.12	0.12	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Colorado	P12	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
George Mason	A10	0.11	0.11	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wichita St.	Amer	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Hofstra	CAA	0.11	0.11	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Connecticut	Amer	0.11	0.11	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	Amer	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.10	0.10	23.08	23.08	-0.06	-0.06
Harvard	Ivy	0.10	0.10	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.10	0.10	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.10	0.10	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.10	0.10	36.36	36.36	-0.03	-0.03
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
New Orleans	Slnd	0.09	0.09	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.09	0.09	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
UCLA	P12	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
USC Upstate	ASun	0.09	0.09	10.71	10.71	-0.07	-0.07
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Manhattan	MAAC	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Monmouth	MAAC	0.09	0.09	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Oregon	P12	0.09	0.09	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
Syracuse	ACC	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.09	0.09	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
Indiana	B10	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Maryland	B10	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Notre Dame	ACC	0.09	0.09	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.09	0.09	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
UCF	Amer	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Utah	P12	0.09	0.09	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.09	0.09	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.09	0.09	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Bryant	NEC	0.08	0.08	9.68	9.68	-0.06	-0.06
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.08	0.08	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.07	0.07	12.50	12.50	-0.06	-0.06
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	32.00	32.00	-0.03	-0.03
NJIT	ASun	0.07	0.07	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.07	0.07	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.07	0.07	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Albany	AE	0.07	0.07	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
North Dakota	BSky	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
UT Arlington	SB	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.07	0.07	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.07	0.07	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
LSU	SEC	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.07	0.07	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Louisville	ACC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.07	0.07	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	82.76	82.76	0.04	0.04
Ohio St.	B10	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.07	0.07	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.06	0.06	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Cornell	Ivy	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.05	30.77	30.77	-0.02	-0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	15.62	15.62	-0.03	-0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.04	-0.04
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
UMBC	AE	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
American	Pat	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
California	P12	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Chicago St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	3.33	3.33	-0.04	-0.04
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.04	0.04	93.94	93.94	0.04	0.04
Austin Peay	OVC	0.04	0.04	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
East Carolina	Amer	0.04	0.04	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.04	0.04	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Furman	SC	0.04	0.04	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.04	0.04	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.04	0.04	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.04	0.04	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
SMU	Amer	0.04	0.04	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
South Florida	Amer	0.04	0.04	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.04	0.04	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.04	0.04	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Texas	B12	0.04	0.04	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.04	0.04	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Western Illinois	Sum	0.04	0.04	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.04	0.04	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.04	0.04	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.04	0.04	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.04	0.04	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.04	0.04	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	8.00	8.00	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Texas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
UTSA	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.02	0.02	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona	P12	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
College of Charleston	CAA	0.02	0.02	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.02	0.02	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.02	0.02	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.02	0.02	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
UC Davis	BW	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
USC	P12	0.02	0.02	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
BYU	WCC	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Green Bay	Horz	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Memphis	Amer	0.02	0.02	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.02	0.02	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
Milwaukee	Horz	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Pepperdine	WCC	0.02	0.02	16.13	16.13	-0.02	-0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
TCU	B12	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.02	0.02	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01