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Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


SMU

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:41.6
Current RPI:54
Expected SOS:63
Current SOS:61
Current Record:14-6
Expected Record:22-9
Current Conf Record:4-3
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:58
Expected OOC SOS:109



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-617.31.85%
24-723.79.19%
23-831.522.67%
22-940.229.10%
21-1049.122.65%
20-1159.110.43%
19-1270.53.46%
18-1384.50.57%
17-14103.50.06%
16-15115.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for SMU.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10UMBC (175.7)AEH78-67W100%0.0
11-12Louisiana Monroe (291.0)SBH83-65W100%0.0
11-15Northwestern St. (337.7)SlndH81-35W100%0.0
11-18Arkansas Pine Bluff (293.5)SWACH72-37W100%0.0
11-22Northern Iowa (120.9)MVCN58-61L0%0.0
11-23Arizona (16.0)P12N66-60W100%0.0
11-24Western Kentucky (45.2)CUSAN61-63L0%0.0
11-28UT Rio Grande Valley (227.1)WACH95-64W100%0.0
12-2USC (34.7)P12H72-55W100%0.0
12-5TCU (23.4)B12A94-83L0%0.0
12-13New Orleans (217.6)SlndH79-66W100%0.0
12-18Boise St. (39.3)MWCH86-63W100%0.0
12-19Cal Poly (282.2)BWH84-64W100%0.0
12-27UCF (69.1)AmerH56-51W100%0.0
12-31South Florida (296.8)AmerH79-39W100%0.0
1-4Tulane (108.5)AmerA73-70L0%0.0
1-7Cincinnati (10.9)AmerA76-56L0%0.0
1-10Temple (61.7)AmerH64-66L0%0.0
1-17Wichita St. (18.2)AmerA78-83W100%0.0
1-20Tulane (108.5)AmerH73-62W100%0.0
1-25Connecticut (102.8)AmerA0-073%6.7
1-28East Carolina (280.0)AmerH0-098%24.0
2-1Tulsa (127.8)AmerA0-072%6.3
2-8Houston (42.0)AmerA0-045%-1.4
2-11Cincinnati (10.9)AmerH0-042%-2.1
2-14Memphis (118.3)AmerH0-090%14.2
2-17UCF (69.1)AmerA0-061%3.1
2-21East Carolina (280.0)AmerA0-094%17.6
2-24Wichita St. (18.2)AmerH0-050%-0.1
2-28Houston (42.0)AmerH0-067%5.0
3-4South Florida (296.8)AmerA0-096%19.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

SMU's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


SMU's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  SMU.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SMUAmer26.4926.2264.8668.317.889.60
HoustonAmer0.473.9878.9575.080.272.00
South FloridaAmer2.703.9236.8427.80-0.71-1.74
CincinnatiAmer2.753.9288.8986.022.142.82
TulaneAmer5.073.8964.7158.431.490.66
Wichita St.Amer2.563.8983.3381.101.712.42
UCFAmer2.693.8972.2263.781.201.07
East CarolinaAmer0.323.8942.1134.59-0.05-1.20
MemphisAmer0.412.4265.0060.160.120.49
ConnecticutAmer0.332.3952.6348.050.02-0.09
TempleAmer2.762.3950.0050.080.000.00
TulsaAmer0.262.3655.0054.190.030.20
New OrleansSlnd2.501.7640.0047.05-0.50-0.10
Northwestern St.Slnd2.581.717.6915.44-2.19-1.18
ArizonaP122.571.6984.2181.581.761.07
Louisiana MonroeSB2.651.6728.5730.28-1.14-0.66
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC2.571.6635.0041.18-0.77-0.29
TCUB122.581.6473.6866.761.220.55
UMBCAE2.561.6458.8257.600.450.25
USCP122.501.6475.0070.581.250.67
Boise St.MWC2.501.6183.3379.731.670.96
Cal PolyBW2.501.6125.0029.25-1.25-0.67
Northern IowaMVC2.501.6141.1848.23-0.44-0.06
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC2.501.6147.3746.64-0.13-0.11
Western KentuckyCUSA2.501.6166.6769.820.830.64
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.370.2752.9455.030.020.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.420.2650.0051.390.000.01
CaliforniaP120.260.1936.8431.11-0.07-0.07
McNeese St.Slnd0.170.1828.5731.24-0.07-0.07
Arkansas St.SB0.210.1727.7831.08-0.09-0.06
Grambling St.SWAC0.150.1636.8444.03-0.04-0.02
OklahomaB120.340.1677.7868.030.190.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.140.169.5217.86-0.11-0.10
CharlotteCUSA0.130.1623.5325.63-0.07-0.08
Oklahoma St.B120.130.1668.4254.040.050.01
SouthernSWAC0.260.1631.5840.82-0.09-0.03
OregonP120.190.1665.0063.810.060.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.290.157.6923.24-0.25-0.08
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.157.6920.08-0.07-0.09
UT ArlingtonSB0.290.1560.0062.010.060.04
South AlabamaSB0.210.1550.0045.850.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.290.1445.0041.31-0.03-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.070.1447.3746.09-0.00-0.01
UtahP120.210.1463.1659.720.060.03
Iowa St.B120.200.1457.8946.220.03-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.260.1317.6527.34-0.17-0.06
StanfordP120.200.1355.0050.330.020.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.1325.0039.91-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.070.1365.0062.050.020.03
Oregon St.P120.180.1357.8950.860.030.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.250.1380.0078.870.150.07
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.1245.0049.28-0.01-0.00
Texas St.SB0.210.1257.8950.210.030.00
Chicago St.WAC0.140.110.003.06-0.14-0.11
UABCUSA0.140.1161.1164.150.030.03
UNLVMWC0.200.1173.6865.250.090.03
UMKCWAC0.130.1121.0524.76-0.07-0.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.200.1150.0052.500.000.01
VillanovaBE0.200.1194.7490.310.180.09
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.1120.0023.33-0.04-0.06
New MexicoMWC0.190.1145.0048.57-0.02-0.00
WyomingMWC0.130.1161.1156.790.030.01
AlabamaSEC0.130.1168.4259.020.050.02
BaylorB120.130.1157.8953.280.020.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.130.1131.5836.43-0.05-0.03
StetsonASun0.130.1133.3336.93-0.04-0.03
West VirginiaB120.130.1180.0076.040.080.06
ColoradoP120.120.1060.0053.720.020.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.130.1015.7922.64-0.09-0.06
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.160.0983.3381.420.110.06
LamarSlnd0.080.0950.0054.900.000.01
Little RockSB0.080.0922.2225.19-0.05-0.04
TroySB0.060.0938.8944.43-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.150.0911.1117.68-0.12-0.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.140.0978.9574.200.080.04
UC IrvineBW0.140.0930.0039.95-0.05-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.130.0866.6765.550.040.03
St. John'sBE0.140.0847.3742.16-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.140.0844.4446.03-0.02-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.140.0870.0068.290.050.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.080.008.42-0.07-0.07
TexasB120.150.0865.0058.600.050.01
AlbanyAE0.070.0871.4370.250.030.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.130.0856.2556.820.020.01
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0840.0043.34-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0836.8445.190.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.130.0870.5969.630.050.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.130.0870.0071.220.050.04
Appalachian St.SB0.150.0831.5836.23-0.05-0.02
HawaiiBW0.130.0868.7564.010.050.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.140.0866.6765.630.050.03
North CarolinaACC0.200.0876.1972.570.110.04
Fresno St.MWC0.200.0866.6763.450.070.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.130.0829.4133.20-0.05-0.03
NevadaMWC0.130.0885.7182.120.090.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0883.3384.250.040.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0838.8943.36-0.02-0.01
XavierBE0.140.0885.7180.060.100.05
Air ForceMWC0.060.0837.5031.78-0.01-0.03
DrexelCAA0.070.0830.0030.97-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.130.0878.9576.770.080.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.190.0833.3332.96-0.06-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.180.0868.4263.970.070.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0868.4264.160.000.02
LSUSEC0.000.0861.1153.190.000.01
MercerSC0.070.0844.4454.87-0.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.130.0872.2274.730.060.04
William & MaryCAA0.130.0864.7160.010.040.02
FIUCUSA0.060.0835.2935.54-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0837.5037.67-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.060.0875.0065.320.030.02
Arizona St.P120.060.0878.9576.160.040.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.130.0811.1115.30-0.10-0.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.120.0820.0040.93-0.07-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.170.0652.9452.670.010.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.065.8819.39-0.07-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0643.7549.11-0.01-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.0642.1139.930.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.070.0665.0057.890.020.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0617.6519.29-0.05-0.04
DrakeMVC0.070.0655.0048.980.01-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0652.6347.500.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.070.0650.0045.930.00-0.00
MaineAE0.070.0610.5314.83-0.05-0.04
New HampshireAE0.070.0633.3340.10-0.02-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.140.0655.0052.480.010.00
UC DavisBW0.000.0658.8262.450.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0617.6523.840.00-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.070.0633.3333.87-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoMVC0.070.0647.3748.77-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.070.0675.0077.870.030.03
CampbellBSth0.000.0647.0647.410.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0652.3848.530.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0655.5657.250.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0657.8958.880.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0655.0046.650.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0658.8262.830.010.01
SeattleWAC0.060.0657.8954.500.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0622.2227.310.00-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0666.6766.030.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.070.0645.0045.47-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.070.0550.0051.030.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.0565.0056.350.040.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0566.6773.220.020.03
PrincetonIvy0.130.0552.9460.230.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.060.0544.4446.66-0.01-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.070.0533.3334.10-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0538.8944.070.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0557.8966.270.010.02
Florida St.ACC0.130.0573.6869.660.060.02
FordhamA100.130.0531.5829.03-0.05-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0538.8940.78-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0550.0054.180.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.130.0540.0042.51-0.03-0.01
MarquetteBE0.070.0568.4260.530.020.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0568.4263.610.020.01
Miami OHMAC0.130.0547.0641.38-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.070.0566.6763.150.020.01
NebraskaB100.070.0563.6459.480.020.01
Notre DameACC0.070.0563.1661.000.020.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0570.0060.470.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0547.3746.930.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0526.3230.45-0.03-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0572.2272.970.030.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0541.1839.660.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0542.1140.460.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.130.0550.0046.270.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.070.0589.4776.990.050.03
BelmontOVC0.130.0571.4374.670.050.03
PurdueB100.130.0590.4888.390.100.04
BuffaloMAC0.070.0572.2274.940.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0546.6747.00-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.060.0552.6351.090.000.00
FloridaSEC0.070.0573.6871.600.030.02
HowardMEAC0.060.0510.5326.29-0.05-0.02
IndianaB100.060.0560.0052.880.010.00
KansasB120.060.0584.2179.760.040.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0572.2258.880.030.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0533.3340.35-0.02-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.120.0544.4450.31-0.010.00
RichmondA100.070.0531.5834.35-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.000.0578.9571.750.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0536.8435.58-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.060.0570.0061.460.020.01
Washington St.P120.060.0547.3741.43-0.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0538.8935.38-0.01-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0510.0016.77-0.05-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.050.0010.26-0.06-0.04
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0327.7838.12-0.04-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0366.6765.390.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0370.0068.210.030.01
OaklandHorz0.080.0361.9065.150.020.01
ArmyPat0.070.0361.1160.440.020.01
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0362.5058.710.020.01
IdahoBSky0.070.0364.7166.850.020.01
MarylandB100.070.0366.6763.130.020.01
PepperdineWCC0.070.0310.5318.34-0.06-0.02
The CitadelSC0.070.0318.7518.37-0.04-0.02
TowsonCAA0.070.0363.1665.980.020.01
Georgia TechACC0.060.0352.6343.040.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.060.0325.0043.18-0.03-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0327.7829.10-0.03-0.01
PortlandWCC0.070.0327.7827.26-0.03-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0316.6724.44-0.04-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0311.7612.800.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0337.5033.77-0.02-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0344.4446.01-0.01-0.00
ClemsonACC0.070.0384.2173.180.050.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0331.5832.71-0.02-0.01
George WashingtonA100.070.0345.0043.49-0.01-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0366.6755.900.020.00
La SalleA100.070.0340.0042.69-0.01-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0352.6355.280.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0350.0050.860.000.00
OhioMAC0.070.0347.0648.43-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0330.0032.540.00-0.01
PennIvy0.070.0364.7162.690.020.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0350.0051.640.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0361.1151.910.010.00
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0341.1838.47-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0352.9452.250.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.070.0368.4269.260.020.01
AkronMAC0.060.0347.0644.92-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0350.0053.280.000.00
BryantNEC0.000.039.5217.120.00-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0320.0032.240.00-0.01
LehighPat0.060.0338.8944.74-0.01-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0378.9569.820.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0322.2228.660.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0385.7183.760.000.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0327.7841.030.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0325.0028.02-0.03-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0327.7832.670.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0328.5729.930.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0373.6872.400.030.01
St. BonaventureA100.060.0366.6768.750.020.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0368.4261.280.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0357.8953.220.010.00
YaleIvy0.060.0341.1847.61-0.01-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0361.9063.170.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.060.0329.4134.78-0.02-0.01
PacificWCC0.060.0345.0044.49-0.01-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0326.3231.48-0.03-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.060.0356.2557.430.010.00