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Through games of Feb 24, 2017.


SMU

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:17.6
Current RPI:18
Expected SOS:84
Current SOS:88
Current Record:24-4
Expected Record:27-4
Current Conf Record:14-1
Expected Conf Record:17-1
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:56
Expected OOC SOS:125



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-415.558.50%
26-519.636.31%
25-625.94.96%
24-734.90.23%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for SMU.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Gardner Webb (203.6)BSthH72-44W100%0.0
11-13Eastern Michigan (176.4)MACH91-64W100%0.0
11-17Pittsburgh (64.9)ACCN76-67W100%0.0
11-18Michigan (48.5)B10N76-54L0%0.0
11-22UC Santa Barbara (324.9)BWH84-57W100%0.0
11-25USC (36.0)P12A78-73L0%0.0
11-30Boise St. (63.6)MWCA71-62L0%0.0
12-2Cal St. Bakersfield (72.9)WACH49-43W100%0.0
12-4Delaware St. (329.4)MEACH74-60W100%0.0
12-7TCU (62.4)B12H74-59W100%0.0
12-14McNeese St. (303.3)SlndH92-56W100%0.0
12-19Stanford (77.2)P12H72-49W100%0.0
12-20Albany (142.5)AEH71-53W100%0.0
12-27Memphis (109.6)AmerA54-58W100%0.0
12-31East Carolina (226.8)AmerA44-75W100%0.0
1-4Temple (123.5)AmerH79-65W100%0.0
1-7South Florida (305.2)AmerH84-65W100%0.0
1-12Cincinnati (12.6)AmerA66-64L0%0.0
1-15Tulane (290.0)AmerA64-80W100%0.0
1-19Connecticut (96.6)AmerH69-49W100%0.0
1-21Houston (51.3)AmerH85-64W100%0.0
1-25UCF (91.6)AmerA60-65W100%0.0
2-1East Carolina (226.8)AmerH86-46W100%0.0
2-4Tulsa (124.1)AmerA53-76W100%0.0
2-9Temple (123.5)AmerA50-66W100%0.0
2-12Cincinnati (12.6)AmerH60-51W100%0.0
2-15Tulane (290.0)AmerH80-75W100%0.0
2-18Houston (51.3)AmerA66-76W100%0.0
2-25Connecticut (96.6)AmerA0-070%5.7
3-2Tulsa (124.1)AmerH0-094%16.9
3-4Memphis (109.6)AmerH0-088%12.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

SMU's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


SMU's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  SMU.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SMUAmer26.2526.2787.9387.4319.9219.67
TulaneAmer4.264.0320.0019.79-2.55-2.43
MemphisAmer2.474.0166.6766.700.821.34
CincinnatiAmer4.224.0092.3190.423.573.24
HoustonAmer4.164.0076.0074.082.161.93
East CarolinaAmer4.193.9850.0046.910.00-0.25
TempleAmer4.223.9751.8554.110.160.33
TulsaAmer2.473.9750.0051.430.000.11
ConnecticutAmer2.463.9752.0051.810.100.14
UCFAmer2.532.4666.6766.030.840.79
South FloridaAmer2.532.4626.9226.14-1.17-1.18
McNeese St.Slnd1.881.7222.7322.69-1.03-0.94
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.891.7016.6717.36-1.26-1.11
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.861.6773.9174.830.890.83
PittsburghACC1.861.6755.5652.430.210.08
USCP121.861.6774.0774.440.890.82
Gardner WebbBSth1.851.6753.8553.780.140.13
Eastern MichiganMAC1.851.6739.1341.45-0.40-0.29
AlbanyAE1.851.6660.7161.880.400.40
StanfordP121.821.6452.0049.050.07-0.03
Boise St.MWC1.791.6162.5063.630.450.44
Delaware St.MEAC1.791.6126.9228.40-0.82-0.70
MichiganB101.791.6162.9661.880.460.38
TCUB121.791.6161.5459.600.410.31
New OrleansSlnd0.210.2060.8761.760.050.05
OregonP120.170.1985.7185.950.120.14
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.170.1726.9226.40-0.08-0.08
Oklahoma St.B120.130.1666.6765.160.040.05
Arizona St.P120.170.1644.8343.70-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.170.1613.7913.43-0.12-0.12
OklahomaB120.130.1633.3333.58-0.04-0.05
ArizonaP120.170.1489.6688.290.130.11
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.170.1475.0077.130.080.08
Texas St.SB0.140.1454.1753.200.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.170.1411.5411.25-0.13-0.11
SyracuseACC0.140.1458.6257.910.020.02
VermontAE0.160.1482.7682.940.110.09
UCLAP120.170.1489.2988.410.130.10
Florida A&MMEAC0.160.1420.0020.88-0.10-0.08
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1382.1481.640.060.09
WashingtonP120.130.1333.3332.54-0.04-0.05
Penn St.B100.160.1350.0048.670.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.140.1241.6739.81-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.140.1241.6741.96-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.140.1151.8551.810.010.00
LibertyBSth0.130.1159.2657.820.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.100.1134.6233.54-0.03-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.130.1144.0045.05-0.02-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.130.1141.6743.50-0.02-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.130.1172.4172.930.060.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.130.110.003.37-0.13-0.10
George WashingtonA100.130.1153.5752.610.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.130.1159.2662.740.020.03
CornellIvy0.130.1124.0024.06-0.07-0.06
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1170.3770.550.040.04
IowaB100.100.1153.5751.600.010.00
Iowa St.B120.130.1166.6764.760.040.03
New HampshireAE0.120.1157.6958.050.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.100.1182.1480.650.060.06
Rhode IslandA100.130.1166.6766.800.040.04
West VirginiaB120.090.1178.5777.800.050.06
YaleIvy0.120.1056.5258.980.020.02
VirginiaACC0.100.1066.6767.620.030.04
Long Beach St.BW0.110.0939.2940.09-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0966.6765.620.020.03
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0957.6957.760.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.110.0942.3143.70-0.02-0.01
HawaiiBW0.100.0948.0047.52-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0948.0047.40-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.110.0978.5778.290.060.05
North FloridaASun0.070.0933.3333.33-0.02-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.110.0965.3864.130.030.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.0848.1548.29-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0850.0052.060.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0848.1548.30-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.100.0853.8553.520.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0830.4330.06-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.060.0819.2321.45-0.04-0.05
Kansas St.B120.070.0860.7159.900.010.02
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0857.6958.130.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.0820.0022.20-0.06-0.05
AuburnSEC0.070.0860.7159.640.010.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.0840.7440.21-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.100.0867.8666.460.040.03
ColoradoP120.070.0853.5753.850.000.01
UtahP120.070.0861.5461.980.020.02
Ohio St.B100.070.0855.1754.740.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.090.0833.3334.84-0.03-0.02
HarvardIvy0.100.0868.1866.630.040.03
KansasB120.100.0889.2987.850.080.06
St. John'sBE0.100.0842.8642.05-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.090.0861.5460.470.020.02
NebraskaB100.060.0842.3141.73-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0830.7733.73-0.02-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0850.0049.420.00-0.00
IndianaB100.100.0853.5752.880.010.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0833.3334.36-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.070.0842.3139.94-0.01-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.070.0855.5652.760.010.00
TexasB120.100.0835.7134.82-0.03-0.02
BrownIvy0.090.0840.0039.77-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.090.0846.4346.16-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.090.0850.0051.610.000.00
StetsonASun0.100.0828.5728.57-0.04-0.03
VillanovaBE0.090.0889.6688.770.070.06
Florida St.ACC0.090.0878.5776.230.050.04
MarshallCUSA0.100.0851.8553.540.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.040.0611.5411.61-0.03-0.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0645.4546.74-0.01-0.00
LamarSlnd0.040.0650.0052.020.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0680.0080.880.040.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0627.2728.62-0.04-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.040.0658.3359.280.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.040.0660.8762.120.010.02
UMKCWAC0.070.0646.1546.47-0.01-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0637.5040.08-0.02-0.01
AkronMAC0.070.0678.5777.240.040.03
Ball St.MAC0.070.0662.9661.290.020.01
Cal PolyBW0.040.0628.0030.82-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.040.0650.0049.800.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.040.0651.8549.980.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.070.0668.0068.590.030.02
ToledoMAC0.040.0650.0051.290.000.00
UC DavisBW0.070.0657.6957.160.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.070.0651.8554.460.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.070.0625.0026.29-0.04-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0656.0055.930.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0637.5036.16-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.070.0638.4639.14-0.02-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0628.0029.55-0.03-0.02
High PointBSth0.030.0646.1546.22-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.070.0615.3815.99-0.05-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.070.0657.1456.420.010.01
RadfordBSth0.070.0640.7440.82-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.040.0650.0046.840.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0671.4371.760.030.03
Utah St.MWC0.070.0642.3144.00-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.070.0676.9277.640.040.03
BYUWCC0.070.0666.6764.650.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0627.5928.23-0.03-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0651.7249.530.00-0.00
PurdueB100.040.0682.1480.800.020.04
Miami OHMAC0.070.0630.7729.89-0.03-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.070.0648.1548.67-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.070.0640.7441.11-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.070.0639.2940.00-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0651.8550.690.000.00
UNLVMWC0.070.0635.7134.77-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.070.0635.7134.89-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0653.5753.370.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0650.0049.120.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0651.7250.580.000.00
WagnerNEC0.030.0653.8554.280.000.00
FurmanSC0.060.0564.2964.510.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0570.3767.230.030.02
RiceCUSA0.060.0565.3863.500.020.01
TroySB0.060.0553.8552.820.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.070.0575.0071.890.030.02
BaylorB120.070.0581.4878.550.040.03
George MasonA100.070.0562.9661.410.020.01
HartfordAE0.030.0530.0029.21-0.01-0.02
Little RockSB0.030.0544.0043.40-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.070.0533.3331.77-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.060.0517.2417.48-0.04-0.03
MissouriSEC0.070.0525.9325.76-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0521.4321.43-0.02-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0530.7734.72-0.03-0.02
South DakotaSum0.070.0564.2963.760.020.01
SouthernSWAC0.070.0548.0047.16-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0523.0822.45-0.04-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.060.0560.7159.030.010.01
Texas TechB120.070.0560.7159.310.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.060.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0586.2186.340.020.04
ButlerBE0.060.0578.5777.630.040.03
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0544.0043.86-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.060.0532.1430.88-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0537.0437.13-0.02-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0537.5040.16-0.02-0.01
IllinoisB100.060.0555.5655.030.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0537.5042.40-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.060.0553.8554.870.000.01
LipscombASun0.060.0557.1457.140.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.060.0578.5778.530.040.03
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.060.0562.9661.410.020.01
MarylandB100.060.0577.7876.970.040.03
MercerSC0.060.0540.7440.79-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.060.0560.7158.900.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0524.1424.00-0.02-0.03
MississippiSEC0.030.0560.7159.880.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0583.3382.370.020.03
NJITASun0.060.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.030.0560.7160.840.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0537.0438.57-0.02-0.01
SamfordSC0.060.0555.5656.300.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0551.8553.240.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0582.1482.160.040.03
Virginia TechACC0.060.0570.3769.240.030.02
WisconsinB100.060.0578.5778.400.040.03
XavierBE0.060.0564.2964.300.020.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.040.0336.3636.57-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.040.0325.0023.78-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.040.0363.6465.040.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.040.0325.9325.65-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.040.0343.4844.58-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.040.0360.7161.120.010.01
DetroitHorz0.040.0325.0024.68-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.040.0363.3362.800.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.040.0355.5655.060.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.040.0362.0762.650.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.040.0342.8643.65-0.01-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0355.5656.820.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.040.0315.3816.30-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.030.0316.0016.76-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0325.9326.04-0.02-0.01
ElonCAA0.030.0353.5754.770.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0329.1729.18-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0350.0051.340.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0335.7135.66-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0346.1546.04-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0346.1546.91-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0324.0025.26-0.02-0.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0353.3353.360.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0389.2989.470.030.02
Seton HallBE0.030.0362.9661.770.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0328.0029.87-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0358.3359.070.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0328.0028.90-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0369.2368.610.010.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0334.4834.78-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0356.6756.420.000.00
ColgatePat0.030.0331.0332.74-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0339.1339.38-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0350.0050.070.000.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0326.6726.21-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0346.6747.98-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0310.3410.22-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.030.0344.4443.90-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0332.1430.39-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0351.8553.670.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0378.5776.180.020.01
DuquesneA100.030.0335.7134.58-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0375.0073.550.020.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0351.7250.330.000.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0350.0050.370.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0346.1546.92-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0051.400.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0371.4368.340.000.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0375.0074.380.020.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0328.5728.29-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.030.0342.8642.31-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.8551.680.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.030.0357.1455.800.000.00