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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


SMU

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:13.0
Current RPI:13
Expected SOS:77
Current SOS:77
Current Record:30-4
Expected Record:30-4
Current Conf Record:20-1
Expected Conf Record:20-1
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:11-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:59
Expected OOC SOS:139



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
30-413.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for SMU.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Gardner Webb (186.0)BSthH72-44W100%0.0
11-13Eastern Michigan (174.0)MACH91-64W100%0.0
11-17Pittsburgh (74.0)ACCN76-67W100%0.0
11-18Michigan (25.0)B10N76-54L0%0.0
11-22UC Santa Barbara (324.0)BWH84-57W100%0.0
11-25USC (40.0)P12A78-73L0%0.0
11-30Boise St. (72.0)MWCA71-62L0%0.0
12-2Cal St. Bakersfield (75.0)WACH49-43W100%0.0
12-4Delaware St. (332.0)MEACH74-60W100%0.0
12-7TCU (67.0)B12H74-59W100%0.0
12-14McNeese St. (315.0)SlndH92-56W100%0.0
12-19Stanford (100.0)P12H72-49W100%0.0
12-20Albany (129.0)AEH71-53W100%0.0
12-27Memphis (120.0)AmerA54-58W100%0.0
12-31East Carolina (213.0)AmerA44-75W100%0.0
1-4Temple (137.0)AmerH79-65W100%0.0
1-7South Florida (316.0)AmerH84-65W100%0.0
1-12Cincinnati (12.0)AmerA66-64L0%0.0
1-15Tulane (296.0)AmerA64-80W100%0.0
1-19Connecticut (118.0)AmerH69-49W100%0.0
1-21Houston (54.0)AmerH85-64W100%0.0
1-25UCF (68.0)AmerA60-65W100%0.0
2-1East Carolina (213.0)AmerH86-46W100%0.0
2-4Tulsa (134.0)AmerA53-76W100%0.0
2-9Temple (137.0)AmerA50-66W100%0.0
2-12Cincinnati (12.0)AmerH60-51W100%0.0
2-15Tulane (296.0)AmerH80-75W100%0.0
2-18Houston (54.0)AmerA66-76W100%0.0
2-25Connecticut (118.0)AmerA61-69W100%0.0
3-2Tulsa (134.0)AmerH93-70W100%0.0
3-4Memphis (120.0)AmerH103-62W100%0.0
3-10East Carolina (213.0)AmerN81-77W100%0.0
3-11UCF (68.0)AmerN70-59W100%0.0
3-12Cincinnati (12.0)AmerN71-56W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

SMU's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


SMU's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  SMU.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SMUAmer26.3926.3990.2890.2821.2521.25
CincinnatiAmer5.255.2590.3290.324.234.23
East CarolinaAmer5.175.1750.0050.000.000.00
ConnecticutAmer3.853.8550.0050.000.000.00
TulsaAmer3.833.8350.0050.000.000.00
UCFAmer3.813.8170.0070.001.521.52
TulaneAmer3.793.7920.6920.69-2.22-2.22
TempleAmer3.783.7853.3353.330.250.25
HoustonAmer3.783.7872.4172.411.701.70
MemphisAmer3.753.7563.3363.331.001.00
South FloridaAmer2.382.3824.1424.14-1.23-1.23
McNeese St.Slnd1.561.5620.0020.00-0.94-0.94
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.551.5519.2319.23-0.95-0.95
AlbanyAE1.541.5462.5062.500.380.38
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.531.5370.3770.370.620.62
USCP121.521.5271.8871.880.670.67
PittsburghACC1.521.5250.0050.000.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth1.521.5255.1755.170.160.16
Eastern MichiganMAC1.521.5242.8642.86-0.22-0.22
StanfordP121.491.4944.8344.83-0.15-0.15
Boise St.MWC1.471.4760.7160.710.320.32
Delaware St.MEAC1.471.4727.5927.59-0.66-0.66
MichiganB101.471.4767.6567.650.520.52
TCUB121.471.4756.2556.250.180.18
New OrleansSlnd0.170.1760.7160.710.040.04
Arizona St.P120.170.1745.4545.45-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.160.1684.8584.850.110.11
OklahomaB120.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.150.1524.1424.14-0.08-0.08
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.140.1473.3373.330.070.07
PresbyterianBSth0.140.1410.7110.71-0.11-0.11
Florida A&MMEAC0.140.1417.8617.86-0.09-0.09
VermontAE0.140.1484.8584.850.100.10
UCLAP120.140.1487.8887.880.110.11
Oregon St.P120.140.1412.9012.90-0.10-0.10
College of CharlestonCAA0.140.1472.7372.730.060.06
Oklahoma St.B120.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
WashingtonP120.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
VirginiaACC0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
Iowa St.B120.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
Penn St.B100.130.1345.4545.45-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.130.1337.0437.04-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
ArizonaP120.120.1288.2488.240.090.09
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Air ForceMWC0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
George WashingtonA100.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
SyracuseACC0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.123.333.33-0.11-0.11
Illinois St.MVC0.110.1181.2581.250.070.07
StetsonASun0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Rhode IslandA100.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.110.1167.6567.650.040.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
LibertyBSth0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
CornellIvy0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
MassachusettsA100.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.090.0991.1891.180.080.08
IowaB100.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
KansasB120.090.0987.5087.500.070.07
New HampshireAE0.090.0958.6258.620.020.02
West VirginiaB120.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
YaleIvy0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.090.0955.8855.880.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
AkronMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0732.0032.00-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0737.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
High PointBSth0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.070.0780.0080.000.040.04
WyomingMWC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
North FloridaASun0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.070.0761.5461.540.020.02
St. John'sBE0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
CaliforniaP120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
ColoradoP120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
UtahP120.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0740.7440.74-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
HowardMEAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
BinghamtonAE0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
UMBCAE0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
Washington St.P120.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
MercerSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
IndianaB100.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
NebraskaB100.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
SamfordSC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
XavierBE0.060.0661.7661.760.020.02
IllinoisB100.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
WisconsinB100.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
LamarSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0636.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
UC DavisBW0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
UMKCWAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
OhioMAC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UNLVMWC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
LSUSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
TroySB0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
IUPUISum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
DePaulBE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0529.4129.41-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
NJITASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
WagnerNEC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.8887.880.030.03
FurmanSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.040.0477.4277.420.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.040.0475.0075.000.020.02
MaineAE0.040.0419.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
MarylandB100.040.0474.1974.190.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.040.0468.7568.750.020.02
Michigan St.B100.040.0457.5857.580.010.01
MinnesotaB100.040.0472.7372.730.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
IdahoBSky0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0287.5087.500.020.02
Seton HallBE0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
ClemsonACC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
ColgatePat0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.020.0277.1477.140.010.01
DuquesneA100.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
MontanaBSky0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0210.0010.00-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
WoffordSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
NorthwesternB100.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
RutgersB100.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00