Valparaiso

Conference:	MVC
Expected RPI:	188.0
Current RPI:	188
Expected SOS:	132
Current SOS:	132
Current Record:	13-17
Expected Record:	13-17
Current Conf Record:	6-13
Expected Conf Record:	6-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-1
Current OOC Record:	7-4
Expected OOC Record:	7-4
Expected OOC RPI:	118
Expected OOC SOS:	268

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-17	188.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Valparaiso.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-15	SIU Edwardsville (287.0)	OVC	A	69-94	W	100%
11-19	Southeastern Louisiana (150.0)	Slnd	H	83-50	W	100%
11-21	Samford (296.0)	SC	H	88-67	W	100%
11-24	Kent St. (154.0)	MAC	N	77-67	W	100%
11-25	UNC Wilmington (245.0)	CAA	N	79-70	W	100%
11-28	Utah St. (152.0)	MWC	H	72-65	W	100%
12-7	Purdue (9.0)	B10	A	80-50	L	0%
12-9	Ball St. (126.0)	MAC	A	71-70	L	0%
12-14	Northwestern (168.0)	B10	A	84-50	L	0%
12-18	Santa Clara (264.0)	WCC	A	68-76	W	100%
12-20	UC Riverside (300.0)	BW	A	73-60	L	0%
12-28	Indiana St. (184.0)	MVC	A	73-64	L	0%
12-31	Missouri St. (136.0)	MVC	H	50-67	L	0%
1-3	Bradley (105.0)	MVC	A	80-71	L	0%
1-6	Southern Illinois (100.0)	MVC	H	83-72	W	100%
1-10	Drake (166.0)	MVC	H	77-60	W	100%
1-13	Northern Iowa (138.0)	MVC	A	81-76	L	0%
1-17	Missouri St. (136.0)	MVC	A	64-57	L	0%
1-21	Loyola Chicago (22.0)	MVC	H	54-70	L	0%
1-24	Evansville (151.0)	MVC	H	65-75	L	0%
1-27	Illinois St. (85.0)	MVC	A	76-65	L	0%
1-31	Indiana St. (184.0)	MVC	H	69-63	W	100%
2-3	Southern Illinois (100.0)	MVC	A	65-59	L	0%
2-7	Evansville (151.0)	MVC	A	63-59	L	0%
2-11	Illinois St. (85.0)	MVC	H	74-58	W	100%
2-14	Loyola Chicago (22.0)	MVC	A	80-71	L	0%
2-17	Bradley (105.0)	MVC	H	77-64	W	100%
2-20	Northern Iowa (138.0)	MVC	H	63-68	L	0%
2-24	Drake (166.0)	MVC	A	64-69	W	100%
3-1	Missouri St. (136.0)	MVC	N	83-79	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Valparaiso's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Valparaiso's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Valparaiso.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Valparaiso	MVC	26.39	26.39	44.35	44.35	-2.98	-2.98
Missouri St.	MVC	5.91	5.91	48.28	48.28	-0.20	-0.20
Loyola Chicago	MVC	4.49	4.49	83.33	83.33	2.99	2.99
Illinois St.	MVC	4.41	4.41	53.33	53.33	0.29	0.29
Southern Illinois	MVC	4.40	4.40	60.00	60.00	0.88	0.88
Bradley	MVC	4.35	4.35	60.00	60.00	0.87	0.87
Northern Iowa	MVC	4.35	4.35	42.86	42.86	-0.62	-0.62
Indiana St.	MVC	4.31	4.31	37.04	37.04	-1.12	-1.12
Drake	MVC	4.30	4.30	51.72	51.72	0.15	0.15
Evansville	MVC	4.30	4.30	46.43	46.43	-0.31	-0.31
Kent St.	MAC	1.83	1.83	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	1.80	1.80	56.67	56.67	0.24	0.24
Samford	SC	1.75	1.75	27.59	27.59	-0.78	-0.78
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	1.74	1.74	31.03	31.03	-0.66	-0.66
Purdue	B10	1.72	1.72	81.82	81.82	1.10	1.10
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	1.72	1.72	65.52	65.52	0.53	0.53
UNC Wilmington	CAA	1.72	1.72	31.03	31.03	-0.65	-0.65
Northwestern	B10	1.69	1.69	43.33	43.33	-0.23	-0.23
Santa Clara	WCC	1.67	1.67	35.71	35.71	-0.48	-0.48
UC Riverside	BW	1.67	1.67	21.43	21.43	-0.95	-0.95
Utah St.	MWC	1.67	1.67	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Chicago St.	WAC	0.24	0.24	3.33	3.33	-0.22	-0.22
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.22	0.22	41.38	41.38	-0.04	-0.04
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.18	0.18	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Nevada	MWC	0.18	0.18	79.41	79.41	0.11	0.11
Boise St.	MWC	0.18	0.18	73.33	73.33	0.08	0.08
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.16	0.16	69.70	69.70	0.06	0.06
Murray St.	OVC	0.16	0.16	82.76	82.76	0.10	0.10
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.16	0.16	12.50	12.50	-0.12	-0.12
Minnesota	B10	0.16	0.16	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.16	0.16	79.41	79.41	0.09	0.09
Wright St.	Horz	0.16	0.16	71.88	71.88	0.07	0.07
Air Force	MWC	0.14	0.14	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Ohio	MAC	0.13	0.13	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
BYU	WCC	0.13	0.13	70.59	70.59	0.06	0.06
Northeastern	CAA	0.13	0.13	68.75	68.75	0.05	0.05
Bowling Green	MAC	0.13	0.13	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.13	0.13	80.00	80.00	0.08	0.08
San Jose St.	MWC	0.13	0.13	10.34	10.34	-0.10	-0.10
New Mexico	MWC	0.13	0.13	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
IUPUI	Horz	0.13	0.13	32.14	32.14	-0.05	-0.05
Georgia Southern	SB	0.13	0.13	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.13	0.13	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.13	0.13	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Pepperdine	WCC	0.11	0.11	16.13	16.13	-0.08	-0.08
Elon	CAA	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Indiana	B10	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.11	0.11	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.11	0.11	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
Fresno St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
UNLV	MWC	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.11	0.11	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
Akron	MAC	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Wyoming	MWC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Tulsa	Amer	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Maryland	B10	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.10	0.10	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Rutgers	B10	0.10	0.10	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.09	0.09	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Pacific	WCC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.09	0.09	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Hofstra	CAA	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Furman	SC	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
Gonzaga	WCC	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Portland St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Xavier	BE	0.08	0.08	84.85	84.85	0.06	0.06
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.08	0.08	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Western Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.08	0.08	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Weber St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Louisville	ACC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.06	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Portland	WCC	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.06	0.06	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.06	0.06	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas St.	SB	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Belmont	OVC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Binghamton	AE	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	CAA	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
LSU	SEC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
Mercer	SC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
New Orleans	Slnd	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.06	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	8.00	8.00	-0.05	-0.05
SMU	Amer	0.06	0.06	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
UT Arlington	SB	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
VMI	SC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Western Carolina	SC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Creighton	BE	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	ACC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
UTSA	CUSA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Idaho	BSky	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
USC	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Davidson	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Memphis	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.02	-0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UCF	Amer	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	24.24	24.24	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola MD	Pat	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Albany	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Utah	P12	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Butler	BE	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.02	0.02	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01