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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Valparaiso

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:75.8
Current RPI:67
Expected SOS:197
Current SOS:209
Current Record:6-1
Expected Record:22-8
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-2
Current OOC Record:6-1
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:59
Expected OOC SOS:156



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-225.10.20%
27-331.40.85%
26-436.83.85%
25-545.410.01%
24-654.815.75%
23-766.220.16%
22-879.919.79%
21-994.515.10%
20-10111.48.59%
19-11129.33.64%
18-12148.61.50%
17-13168.90.44%
16-14191.50.10%
15-15212.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Valparaiso.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Southern Utah (328.1)BSkyH79-65W100%0.0
11-14Coppin St. (343.7)MEACH78-58W100%0.0
11-17Oregon (34.2)P12A76-54L0%0.0
11-21Alabama (122.0)SECN68-60W100%0.0
11-23BYU (74.9)WCCN92-89W100%0.0
11-27Ball St. (242.5)MACH79-73W100%0.0
11-29Rhode Island (37.3)A10H65-62W100%0.0
12-7Kentucky (9.3)SECA0-05%-19.7
12-10Missouri St. (149.7)MVCA0-043%-2.0
12-17Indiana St. (138.8)MVCH0-066%4.9
12-22Santa Clara (247.7)WCCH0-085%12.7
12-28Chicago St. (273.9)WACH0-095%19.6
12-30Illinois Chicago (242.3)HorzA0-069%6.1
1-6Oakland (95.3)HorzH0-057%2.2
1-8Detroit (295.7)HorzH0-093%18.1
1-12Youngstown St. (237.3)HorzA0-076%8.5
1-14Cleveland St. (249.7)HorzA0-078%9.5
1-16Green Bay (148.5)HorzH0-077%9.0
1-22Illinois Chicago (242.3)HorzH0-085%12.4
1-27Wright St. (172.2)HorzH0-082%10.9
1-29Northern Kentucky (166.0)HorzH0-080%10.1
2-2Milwaukee (255.6)HorzA0-079%9.6
2-4Green Bay (148.5)HorzA0-059%2.7
2-9Cleveland St. (249.7)HorzH0-091%15.7
2-11Youngstown St. (237.3)HorzH0-089%14.8
2-17Oakland (95.3)HorzA0-037%-4.1
2-19Detroit (295.7)HorzA0-084%11.8
2-21Milwaukee (255.6)HorzH0-091%15.8
2-24Wright St. (172.2)HorzA0-065%4.7
2-26Northern Kentucky (166.0)HorzA0-062%3.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Valparaiso's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Valparaiso's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Valparaiso.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ValparaisoHorz28.3526.3788.0076.0221.5513.72
OaklandHorz0.604.3185.7178.940.432.49
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.004.2842.8647.12-0.00-0.25
Cleveland St.Horz0.004.2828.5732.62-0.00-1.49
MilwaukeeHorz0.004.2528.5733.86-0.00-1.37
DetroitHorz0.004.250.0021.95-0.00-2.38
Northern KentuckyHorz0.004.2557.1455.860.000.50
Wright St.Horz0.004.2562.5053.660.000.31
Youngstown St.Horz0.004.2542.8639.72-0.00-0.87
Green BayHorz0.004.2542.8653.43-0.000.29
Chicago St.WAC0.001.8120.0023.43-0.00-0.96
Ball St.MAC8.651.7850.0048.740.00-0.04
Missouri St.MVC0.001.7660.0058.650.000.30
Indiana St.MVC0.511.7542.8650.68-0.070.02
Southern UtahBSky7.651.750.0025.52-7.65-0.86
KentuckySEC0.001.7587.5082.390.001.13
BYUWCC7.541.7571.4369.133.230.67
AlabamaSEC7.651.7566.6753.572.550.12
Coppin St.MEAC8.101.720.0017.74-8.10-1.11
Santa ClaraWCC0.001.7233.3332.96-0.00-0.59
OregonP127.141.6971.4371.293.060.72
Rhode IslandA107.141.6771.4371.513.060.72
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.2971.4358.920.000.05
ToledoMAC0.000.2937.5047.91-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.2328.5741.52-0.00-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.000.2071.4356.250.000.03
BelmontOVC0.450.2050.0064.350.000.06
BradleyMVC0.000.1742.8627.96-0.00-0.08
DePaulBE0.000.1766.6735.430.00-0.05
Murray St.OVC0.000.1750.0061.240.000.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1757.1449.130.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1742.8645.56-0.00-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1716.6736.03-0.00-0.05
Saint LouisA102.060.1728.5723.78-0.88-0.09
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1757.1452.030.000.01
PacificWCC0.000.1742.8646.14-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1785.7153.560.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.400.1542.8658.58-0.060.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1542.8660.54-0.000.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1542.8638.63-0.00-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1457.1450.080.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.1442.8630.92-0.00-0.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1412.5023.75-0.00-0.07
Kent St.MAC0.000.1457.1454.360.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.1462.5050.710.000.00
Michigan St.B100.000.1455.5658.610.000.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1437.5044.39-0.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.1483.3371.480.000.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1433.3346.38-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.1262.5052.330.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1114.2932.19-0.00-0.04
DrakeMVC0.000.110.0019.67-0.00-0.07
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1171.4355.160.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1142.8644.71-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1160.0067.760.000.04
North DakotaBSky0.000.1133.3354.32-0.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1133.3352.84-0.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1122.2241.71-0.00-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1175.0086.710.000.08
AkronMAC0.000.1171.4368.980.000.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1183.3379.850.000.07
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.1150.0056.740.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1157.1459.280.000.02
Coastal CarolinaSB1.950.1125.0038.83-0.97-0.03
DuquesneA100.000.1144.4442.03-0.00-0.02
MontanaBSky0.000.1125.0048.10-0.00-0.00
USCP120.450.11100.0076.680.450.06
TennesseeSEC0.450.1140.0041.12-0.09-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1150.0046.240.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.11100.0091.920.000.09
PepperdineWCC0.000.1142.8633.23-0.00-0.04
PortlandWCC0.000.1150.0054.070.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.11100.0089.330.000.09
San DiegoWCC0.000.1137.5031.23-0.00-0.04
SeattleWAC0.000.0916.6739.49-0.00-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.450.0966.6757.300.150.01
WisconsinB100.000.0977.7876.040.000.05
Western IllinoisSum0.000.090.0016.68-0.00-0.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.090.0035.95-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0957.1471.520.000.04
Oral RobertsSum0.000.090.0022.31-0.00-0.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0937.5035.09-0.00-0.03
North FloridaASun0.000.0912.5034.79-0.00-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0916.6739.20-0.00-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.0950.0045.970.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0975.0066.370.000.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0875.0054.670.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0833.3352.21-0.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0850.0062.380.000.02
StanfordP120.000.0866.6758.060.000.01
UtahP120.400.0875.0059.790.200.02
DaytonA100.510.0871.4373.490.220.04
UC IrvineBW0.000.0850.0054.070.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0885.7157.450.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.0875.0062.620.000.02
LSUSEC0.000.0871.4349.170.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0875.0048.030.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0857.1442.530.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.08100.0086.690.000.06
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0866.6766.180.000.03
FloridaSEC0.000.0887.5075.240.000.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0675.0070.180.000.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0622.2221.23-0.00-0.04
AmericanPat0.000.0614.2931.35-0.00-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0633.3336.74-0.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.0650.0041.990.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0614.2936.02-0.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0687.5065.250.000.02
Fort WayneSum0.000.0671.4370.210.000.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0650.0060.620.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0614.2942.67-0.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0650.0052.760.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0625.0034.40-0.00-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0616.6738.58-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0614.2938.26-0.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0677.7871.970.000.03
New HampshireAE0.000.0657.1458.840.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0625.0035.09-0.00-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0650.0044.400.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0687.5068.610.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0666.6746.420.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.0640.0043.41-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.060.0022.01-0.00-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.0671.4357.970.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.12-0.00-0.03
West VirginiaB120.000.0685.7183.660.000.04
Cal PolyBW0.000.0642.8641.51-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0671.4359.470.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0687.5059.310.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0675.0075.340.000.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0650.0041.990.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0625.0029.54-0.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.400.0671.4354.860.170.01
GeorgetownBE0.840.0655.5647.890.09-0.00
IUPUISum0.510.0637.5051.64-0.130.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0650.0041.490.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.450.060.0018.64-0.45-0.04
UNLVMWC0.600.0662.5043.800.15-0.01
HofstraCAA0.400.0662.5043.220.10-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0612.5029.15-0.00-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.450.0642.8650.06-0.060.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0616.6749.65-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.000.0675.0068.370.000.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0685.7162.220.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0671.4363.170.000.01
La SalleA100.000.0666.6755.540.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0671.4358.600.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0675.0055.500.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0642.8645.30-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0625.0039.59-0.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.000.0642.8628.98-0.00-0.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0625.0022.93-0.00-0.03
Arizona St.P120.000.0562.5040.460.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0585.7166.190.000.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0575.0048.500.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.05100.0078.850.000.03
NorthwesternB100.000.0375.0066.170.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0077.380.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0357.1448.500.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0013.46-0.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0074.440.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0328.5733.77-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0312.5037.99-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0022.58-0.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0316.6744.34-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0371.4368.070.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0350.0046.410.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0316.6729.81-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.47-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0311.1148.19-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0020.75-0.00-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0357.1458.940.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0328.5736.95-0.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0312.5033.65-0.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.450.0342.8650.09-0.060.00
BaylorB120.450.03100.0076.590.450.01
Boise St.MWC0.450.0342.8656.04-0.060.00
BrownIvy0.450.0355.5646.970.05-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.510.0320.0037.65-0.31-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.450.0387.5082.360.330.02
ConnecticutAmer0.450.0333.3339.61-0.15-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.450.030.0020.55-0.45-0.02
DukeACC0.450.0388.8978.400.350.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0050.840.000.00
FordhamA100.000.0350.0041.310.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0366.6740.030.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0362.5046.900.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0355.5641.690.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0337.5047.37-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0385.7178.280.000.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0320.0021.80-0.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.450.0344.4434.65-0.05-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0371.4368.050.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.450.0375.0056.590.220.00
RichmondA100.000.0350.0048.210.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0337.5033.74-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0371.4370.390.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.0328.5728.24-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0385.7170.060.000.01
TexasB120.510.0357.1438.680.07-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0032.52-0.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0344.4441.30-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.000.0375.0073.060.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.0357.1452.370.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0333.3346.01-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.000.0387.5075.860.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0387.5075.590.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0387.5081.960.000.02
PrincetonIvy0.450.0325.0063.27-0.220.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0055.33-0.000.00