live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Valparaiso

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:184.0
Current RPI:184
Expected SOS:194
Current SOS:194
Current Record:15-15
Expected Record:15-15
Current Conf Record:10-8
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-4
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:215
Expected OOC SOS:178



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-15184.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Valparaiso.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Murray St. (142.0)OVCH77-74W100%0.0
11-13Illinois (70.0)B10A64-52L0%0.0
11-17Ohio (87.0)MACA76-72L0%0.0
11-20Evansville (214.0)MVCA100-92L0%0.0
11-23James Madison (233.0)CAAH81-49W100%0.0
11-26UCF (220.0)AmerH85-70W100%0.0
11-29Mercer (81.0)ASunH108-117L0%0.0
12-4Ball St. (309.0)MACA50-69W100%0.0
12-7Saint Louis (27.0)A10H65-67L0%0.0
12-14Loyola Marymount (179.0)WCCH80-73W100%0.0
12-22UCF (220.0)AmerA90-62L0%0.0
12-29East Tennessee St. (206.0)ASunA73-62L0%0.0
1-2UIC (315.0)HorzH87-72W100%0.0
1-4Oakland (181.0)HorzA75-70L0%0.0
1-10Wright St. (173.0)HorzH45-62L0%0.0
1-15Detroit (230.0)HorzA70-78W100%0.0
1-18Milwaukee (131.0)HorzH75-62W100%0.0
1-23Youngstown St. (237.0)HorzA71-74W100%0.0
1-25Cleveland St. (91.0)HorzA69-50L0%0.0
1-29Green Bay (58.0)HorzH75-60W100%0.0
2-1UIC (315.0)HorzA46-70W100%0.0
2-7Detroit (230.0)HorzH57-59L0%0.0
2-9Oakland (181.0)HorzH63-60W100%0.0
2-15Milwaukee (131.0)HorzA62-77W100%0.0
2-20Green Bay (58.0)HorzA67-53L0%0.0
2-22Youngstown St. (237.0)HorzH68-66W100%0.0
2-25Wright St. (173.0)HorzA67-58L0%0.0
3-1Cleveland St. (91.0)HorzH52-63L0%0.0
3-4UIC (315.0)HorzH73-63W100%0.0
3-7Milwaukee (131.0)HorzN57-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Valparaiso's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Valparaiso's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Valparaiso.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ValparaisoHorz26.5426.5449.2449.24-0.40-0.40
MilwaukeeHorz6.046.0463.3363.331.611.61
UICHorz5.855.8515.3815.38-4.05-4.05
Wright St.Horz4.414.4153.3353.330.290.29
OaklandHorz4.364.3634.4834.48-1.35-1.35
DetroitHorz4.324.3235.7135.71-1.23-1.23
Cleveland St.Horz4.304.3060.7160.710.920.92
Green BayHorz4.284.2880.0080.002.572.57
Youngstown St.Horz4.274.2744.4444.44-0.47-0.47
UCFAmer3.333.3337.0437.04-0.86-0.86
OhioMAC1.831.8365.6265.620.570.57
James MadisonCAA1.831.8336.6736.67-0.49-0.49
Ball St.MAC1.801.8011.1111.11-1.40-1.40
MercerASun1.771.7773.3373.330.830.83
IllinoisB101.751.7556.2556.250.220.22
EvansvilleMVC1.751.7536.6736.67-0.47-0.47
East Tennessee St.ASun1.721.7251.6151.610.060.06
Murray St.OVC1.691.6961.5461.540.390.39
Loyola MarymountWCC1.671.6740.0040.00-0.33-0.33
Saint LouisA101.671.6780.0080.001.001.00
ToledoMAC0.280.2881.2581.250.170.17
Eastern MichiganMAC0.260.2656.2556.250.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.260.2632.1432.14-0.09-0.09
AkronMAC0.250.2563.6463.640.070.07
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.220.2229.0329.03-0.09-0.09
WisconsinB100.210.2178.7978.790.120.12
Bowling GreenMAC0.210.2135.4835.48-0.06-0.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.200.2053.3353.330.010.01
SMUAmer0.200.2071.8871.880.090.09
Tennessee TechOVC0.190.1948.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.190.1948.3948.39-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.190.1935.7135.71-0.05-0.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.190.1945.1645.16-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.190.1934.4834.48-0.06-0.06
Miami OHMAC0.180.1843.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.170.1781.8281.820.110.11
TempleAmer0.170.1729.0329.03-0.07-0.07
Austin PeayOVC0.170.1735.7135.71-0.05-0.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.170.1716.6716.67-0.11-0.11
ConnecticutAmer0.170.1776.4776.470.090.09
South FloridaAmer0.170.1737.5037.50-0.04-0.04
DrakeMVC0.170.1746.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.170.1761.7661.760.040.04
Western MichiganMAC0.160.1670.9770.970.070.07
Kennesaw St.ASun0.160.1613.7913.79-0.12-0.12
StetsonASun0.160.1622.5822.58-0.09-0.09
LipscombASun0.160.1648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
IndianaB100.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
BradleyMVC0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.130.1334.3834.38-0.04-0.04
DePaulBE0.130.1336.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
South DakotaSum0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
LouisvilleAmer0.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
MemphisAmer0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
RutgersAmer0.110.1134.3834.38-0.04-0.04
UC RiversideBW0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
NorthwesternB100.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
BuffaloMAC0.110.1164.2964.290.030.03
MassachusettsA100.110.1175.0075.000.050.05
DrexelCAA0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Western CarolinaSC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
Illinois St.MVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.110.11100.00100.000.110.11
North FloridaASun0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Michigan St.B100.100.1076.4776.470.060.06
San Jose St.MWC0.100.1017.2417.24-0.07-0.07
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.090.0982.3582.350.060.06
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
WagnerNEC0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
DaytonA100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
PittsburghACC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
PortlandWCC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
RichmondA100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
DavidsonSC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Ohio St.B100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.060.0686.2186.210.040.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.04-0.04
TulsaCUSA0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0619.3519.35-0.04-0.04
Miami FLACC0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
St. John'sBE0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Western KentuckySB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
ButlerBE0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
KentuckySEC0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
DuquesneA100.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
PacificWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
YaleIvy0.050.0551.8551.850.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0593.1093.100.050.05
WinthropBSth0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0514.8114.81-0.04-0.04
VMIBSth0.050.0555.5655.560.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
NebraskaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Penn St.B100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
FordhamA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
High PointBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
TexasB120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
XavierBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01