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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Valparaiso

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:188.0
Current RPI:188
Expected SOS:132
Current SOS:132
Current Record:13-17
Expected Record:13-17
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-1
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:118
Expected OOC SOS:268



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-17188.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Valparaiso.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15SIU Edwardsville (287.0)OVCA69-94W100%0.0
11-19Southeastern Louisiana (150.0)SlndH83-50W100%0.0
11-21Samford (296.0)SCH88-67W100%0.0
11-24Kent St. (154.0)MACN77-67W100%0.0
11-25UNC Wilmington (245.0)CAAN79-70W100%0.0
11-28Utah St. (152.0)MWCH72-65W100%0.0
12-7Purdue (9.0)B10A80-50L0%0.0
12-9Ball St. (126.0)MACA71-70L0%0.0
12-14Northwestern (168.0)B10A84-50L0%0.0
12-18Santa Clara (264.0)WCCA68-76W100%0.0
12-20UC Riverside (300.0)BWA73-60L0%0.0
12-28Indiana St. (184.0)MVCA73-64L0%0.0
12-31Missouri St. (136.0)MVCH50-67L0%0.0
1-3Bradley (105.0)MVCA80-71L0%0.0
1-6Southern Illinois (100.0)MVCH83-72W100%0.0
1-10Drake (166.0)MVCH77-60W100%0.0
1-13Northern Iowa (138.0)MVCA81-76L0%0.0
1-17Missouri St. (136.0)MVCA64-57L0%0.0
1-21Loyola Chicago (22.0)MVCH54-70L0%0.0
1-24Evansville (151.0)MVCH65-75L0%0.0
1-27Illinois St. (85.0)MVCA76-65L0%0.0
1-31Indiana St. (184.0)MVCH69-63W100%0.0
2-3Southern Illinois (100.0)MVCA65-59L0%0.0
2-7Evansville (151.0)MVCA63-59L0%0.0
2-11Illinois St. (85.0)MVCH74-58W100%0.0
2-14Loyola Chicago (22.0)MVCA80-71L0%0.0
2-17Bradley (105.0)MVCH77-64W100%0.0
2-20Northern Iowa (138.0)MVCH63-68L0%0.0
2-24Drake (166.0)MVCA64-69W100%0.0
3-1Missouri St. (136.0)MVCN83-79L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Valparaiso's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Valparaiso's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Valparaiso.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ValparaisoMVC26.3926.3944.3544.35-2.98-2.98
Missouri St.MVC5.915.9148.2848.28-0.20-0.20
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.494.4983.3383.332.992.99
Illinois St.MVC4.414.4153.3353.330.290.29
Southern IllinoisMVC4.404.4060.0060.000.880.88
BradleyMVC4.354.3560.0060.000.870.87
Northern IowaMVC4.354.3542.8642.86-0.62-0.62
Indiana St.MVC4.314.3137.0437.04-1.12-1.12
DrakeMVC4.304.3051.7251.720.150.15
EvansvilleMVC4.304.3046.4346.43-0.31-0.31
Kent St.MAC1.831.8350.0050.000.000.00
Ball St.MAC1.801.8056.6756.670.240.24
SamfordSC1.751.7527.5927.59-0.78-0.78
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC1.741.7431.0331.03-0.66-0.66
PurdueB101.721.7281.8281.821.101.10
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.721.7265.5265.520.530.53
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.721.7231.0331.03-0.65-0.65
NorthwesternB101.691.6943.3343.33-0.23-0.23
Santa ClaraWCC1.671.6735.7135.71-0.48-0.48
UC RiversideBW1.671.6721.4321.43-0.95-0.95
Utah St.MWC1.671.6750.0050.000.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.240.243.333.33-0.22-0.22
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.220.2241.3841.38-0.04-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.180.1841.3841.38-0.03-0.03
NevadaMWC0.180.1879.4179.410.110.11
Boise St.MWC0.180.1873.3373.330.080.08
Western KentuckyCUSA0.160.1669.7069.700.060.06
Murray St.OVC0.160.1682.7682.760.100.10
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.160.1612.5012.50-0.12-0.12
MinnesotaB100.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.160.1679.4179.410.090.09
Wright St.Horz0.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
Air ForceMWC0.140.1434.4834.48-0.04-0.04
OhioMAC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.130.1370.5970.590.060.06
NortheasternCAA0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.1380.0080.000.080.08
San Jose St.MWC0.130.1310.3410.34-0.10-0.10
New MexicoMWC0.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
IUPUIHorz0.130.1332.1432.14-0.05-0.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Penn St.B100.130.1361.7661.760.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
PepperdineWCC0.110.1116.1316.13-0.08-0.08
ElonCAA0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
DrexelCAA0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
DelawareCAA0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Fresno St.MWC0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
UNLVMWC0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
IowaB100.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
WyomingMWC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
MississippiSEC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
MarylandB100.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
WisconsinB100.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
RutgersB100.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.090.0924.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
PacificWCC0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
HofstraCAA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
FurmanSC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0877.4277.420.050.05
GonzagaWCC0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
Portland St.BSky0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.080.0884.8584.850.060.06
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
ToledoMAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Weber St.BSky0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
AuburnSEC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Green BayHorz0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
PortlandWCC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
San DiegoWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0644.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
BinghamtonAE0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
DukeACC0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
Iowa St.B120.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0632.0032.00-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.060.0671.4371.430.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.068.008.00-0.05-0.05
SMUAmer0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0680.0080.000.030.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
VillanovaBE0.060.0688.2488.240.040.04
VMISC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
WoffordSC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
CreightonBE0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
ColoradoP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
OklahomaB120.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0573.3373.330.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Little RockSB0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UMKCWAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
VermontAE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
WinthropBSth0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
IllinoisB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
NebraskaB100.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
USCP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.039.689.68-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
DavidsonA100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0312.5012.50-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0332.3532.35-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
ArizonaP120.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
ButlerBE0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
LipscombASun0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
MarquetteBE0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01