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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Valparaiso

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:102.8
Current RPI:106
Expected SOS:168
Current SOS:185
Current Record:15-8
Expected Record:18-11
Current Conf Record:10-3
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Probability of Auto Bid:16.32%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-3
Current OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:122
Expected OOC SOS:151



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-871.41.61%
20-983.713.81%
19-1095.433.21%
18-11108.134.14%
17-12122.114.64%
16-13137.82.49%
15-14157.30.09%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Valparaiso.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-7Arizona (75.8)P12A73-64L0%0.0
11-11Georgia Southern (228.1)SCA81-90W100%0.0
11-18Akron (49.0)MACH62-59W100%0.0
11-20Duquesne (79.5)A10H84-68W100%0.0
11-25Ohio St. (3.4)B10A80-47L0%0.0
12-3Butler (143.2)HorzA71-77W100%0.0
12-7IUPU Fort Wayne (255.0)SumA85-76L0%0.0
12-10Bowling Green (155.1)MACH82-79W100%0.0
12-17Oakland (135.3)SumH80-82L0%0.0
12-20Northern Illinois (337.4)MACA48-59W100%0.0
12-23IUPUI (245.2)SumA97-88L0%0.0
12-29Wisconsin Milwaukee (127.3)HorzH55-57L0%0.0
12-31Wisconsin Green Bay (187.0)HorzH90-87W100%0.0
1-6Detroit (181.7)HorzA71-73W100%0.0
1-8Wright St. (216.3)HorzA73-55L0%0.0
1-13Youngstown St. (163.1)HorzH76-62W100%0.0
1-15Cleveland St. (52.0)HorzH72-66W100%0.0
1-19Loyola Chicago (310.1)HorzA48-69W100%0.0
1-21Illinois Chicago (290.5)HorzA55-60W100%0.0
1-26Wisconsin Green Bay (187.0)HorzA75-60L0%0.0
1-28Wisconsin Milwaukee (127.3)HorzA52-55W100%0.0
2-2Detroit (181.7)HorzH78-73W100%0.0
2-4Wright St. (216.3)HorzH63-54W100%0.0
2-9Cleveland St. (52.0)HorzA0-019%-9.6
2-11Youngstown St. (163.1)HorzA0-047%-0.9
2-14Illinois Chicago (290.5)HorzH0-086%11.7
2-18Loyola Marymount (107.0)WCCA0-038%-3.2
2-21Loyola Chicago (310.1)HorzH0-090%13.8
2-24Butler (143.2)HorzH0-065%4.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Valparaiso's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Valparaiso's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Valparaiso.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ValparaisoHorz26.5326.4269.5267.5510.369.28
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz5.214.4857.1458.300.740.74
DetroitHorz5.154.4852.3852.660.250.24
Cleveland St.Horz2.924.4585.7183.292.092.96
Wright St.Horz5.104.4540.9139.94-0.93-0.90
Illinois ChicagoHorz3.064.4431.5831.89-1.13-1.61
Wisconsin Green BayHorz5.074.4433.3338.53-1.69-1.02
Youngstown St.Horz3.014.4452.6353.510.160.31
ButlerHorz3.164.4252.1753.190.140.28
Loyola ChicagoHorz3.004.4120.0022.53-1.80-2.43
AkronMAC2.472.0371.4370.251.060.82
IUPUISum2.461.9131.8233.20-0.90-0.64
Northern IllinoisMAC2.371.915.567.58-2.11-1.62
Bowling GreenMAC2.421.9050.0050.570.000.02
OaklandSum2.371.8845.8348.49-0.20-0.06
DuquesneA102.431.8761.9058.360.580.31
IUPU Fort WayneSum2.311.8431.5832.72-0.85-0.64
ArizonaP122.271.7865.2267.510.690.62
Ohio St.B102.261.7886.3684.971.651.25
Georgia SouthernSC2.171.7242.1142.95-0.34-0.24
Loyola MarymountWCC0.001.7259.0957.620.000.26
ToledoMAC0.320.3738.1040.81-0.08-0.07
Western MichiganMAC0.390.3040.9142.96-0.07-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.260.2840.9138.38-0.05-0.07
Ball St.MAC0.290.2755.0057.410.030.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.350.2561.9063.520.080.07
Western IllinoisSum0.340.2552.6348.410.02-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.300.2428.5734.20-0.13-0.08
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.190.2434.7835.20-0.06-0.07
OhioMAC0.290.2481.8277.200.190.13
Miami OHMAC0.240.2330.0034.15-0.10-0.07
BuffaloMAC0.210.2168.4266.450.080.07
Oral RobertsSum0.190.2180.7780.750.120.13
Kent St.MAC0.210.2171.4369.050.090.08
South DakotaSum0.150.1826.3228.83-0.07-0.08
South Dakota St.Sum0.240.1873.9175.490.120.09
Southern UtahSum0.200.1845.4544.30-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.250.1875.0073.970.130.09
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1633.3334.47-0.04-0.05
Austin PeayOVC0.150.1533.3335.97-0.05-0.04
DePaulBE0.200.1550.0042.830.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.150.1568.0070.030.060.06
PurdueB100.160.1565.2260.580.050.03
GonzagaWCC0.090.1581.8281.490.060.09
Michigan St.B100.150.1476.1972.910.080.07
SamfordSC0.160.1333.3335.26-0.05-0.04
FurmanSC0.110.1347.6248.83-0.01-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.150.1227.2735.02-0.07-0.04
DaytonA100.100.1260.8760.960.020.03
MarquetteBE0.200.1279.1775.980.120.06
Penn St.B100.150.1241.6738.67-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1245.4544.02-0.01-0.01
IdahoWAC0.200.1247.6251.08-0.010.00
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1256.5254.220.010.01
XavierA100.150.1265.2263.740.050.03
George WashingtonA100.150.1234.7832.08-0.04-0.04
IllinoisB100.100.1272.7364.430.050.03
St. BonaventureA100.100.1260.0059.060.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.190.1278.2672.340.110.05
FloridaSEC0.180.1182.6177.630.120.06
IndianaB100.140.1175.0075.780.070.06
Chicago St.GWC0.050.094.769.95-0.05-0.08
IowaB100.160.0954.1749.440.01-0.00
Oregon St.P120.100.0963.6463.160.030.02
FordhamA100.050.0940.9134.50-0.01-0.03
South FloridaBE0.100.0954.5548.600.01-0.00
St. LouisA100.050.0977.2777.670.030.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.140.0943.4844.25-0.02-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.140.0931.8242.13-0.05-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.140.0968.1869.100.050.03
St. John'sBE0.140.0943.4840.28-0.02-0.02
CharlotteA100.090.0950.0049.450.00-0.00
LouisvilleBE0.090.0978.2672.660.050.04
Rhode IslandA100.100.0920.8320.60-0.06-0.05
UCLAP120.050.0954.5556.790.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.140.0919.0525.52-0.09-0.04
North FloridaASun0.140.0945.8346.68-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.090.0969.5768.290.040.03
MichiganB100.090.0872.7366.810.040.03
College of CharlestonSC0.050.0758.3359.980.010.01
DavidsonSC0.050.0776.1976.760.030.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0750.0051.730.000.00
The CitadelSC0.050.079.5211.44-0.04-0.05
WoffordSC0.050.0759.0957.930.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0621.7422.76-0.03-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.050.0642.8639.66-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.110.0681.8276.800.070.03
WyomingMWC0.110.0676.1970.730.060.03
BradleyMVC0.000.0624.0024.86-0.00-0.03
Brigham YoungWCC0.000.0675.0076.000.000.03
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0617.3919.81-0.03-0.04
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0633.3333.88-0.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0672.7368.280.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.0631.8233.83-0.00-0.02
PortlandWCC0.000.0621.7421.70-0.00-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.000.0633.3333.82-0.00-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0656.5253.770.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0628.5726.30-0.00-0.03
St. Mary'sWCC0.000.0690.9187.740.000.05
Utah ValleyGWC0.100.0654.5557.690.010.01
Middle TennesseeSB0.050.0683.3384.760.030.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0630.0037.30-0.04-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0654.5554.300.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0640.0040.18-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0662.5061.500.020.01
Notre DameBE0.090.0665.2262.650.030.02
TempleA100.050.0677.2775.060.030.03
Western KentuckySB0.100.0634.7834.48-0.03-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0613.6416.14-0.03-0.04
Air ForceMWC0.090.0647.3742.16-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityAE0.050.0648.0051.88-0.000.00
CincinnatiBE0.090.0669.5765.470.040.02
DrexelCAA0.000.0679.1778.100.000.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0634.7838.77-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0632.0035.39-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0626.3229.79-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0652.3857.860.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0669.5765.870.020.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0630.4331.43-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.050.0666.6762.650.020.01
NebraskaB100.090.0652.3846.680.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0661.9055.140.010.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0625.0025.13-0.02-0.03
UtahP120.050.0618.1815.01-0.03-0.04
WashingtonP120.050.0669.5766.540.020.02
Washington St.P120.050.0650.0048.170.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0335.0039.29-0.02-0.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0356.5248.810.01-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.050.0314.2917.17-0.04-0.02
ElonSC0.050.0350.0047.590.00-0.00
Georgia St.CAA0.050.0366.6769.690.020.01
NC GreensboroSC0.000.0334.7833.46-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0352.3852.870.000.00
Southern MethodistCUSA0.050.0338.1037.86-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.034.359.66-0.05-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0347.8343.66-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0334.7837.24-0.02-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.060.0342.8641.13-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0326.3229.71-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0334.7832.06-0.02-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0355.0054.800.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0372.7371.710.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0390.4887.910.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0325.0037.58-0.00-0.01
North TexasSB0.000.0350.0050.010.000.00
Florida InternationalSB0.050.0333.3337.16-0.02-0.01
George MasonCAA0.050.0376.0072.500.030.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0380.9577.380.030.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0345.4541.20-0.00-0.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.050.0325.0028.52-0.02-0.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0318.1822.22-0.03-0.02
La SalleA100.050.0370.8368.820.020.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0354.1754.750.000.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0373.9168.580.020.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0345.4546.99-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0325.0023.75-0.00-0.02
PittsburghBE0.050.0360.8758.160.010.00
RichmondA100.050.0350.0048.490.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0362.5062.490.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0360.8759.760.010.01
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.050.0357.1460.750.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.040.0369.5765.150.020.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0317.3924.41-0.03-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0319.0522.37-0.03-0.02
GramblingSWAC0.040.0315.0015.73-0.03-0.02
HoustonCUSA0.040.0347.6244.63-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0362.5062.060.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0359.0959.720.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0333.3337.25-0.02-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.040.0345.4544.66-0.00-0.00
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.050.0380.0078.060.030.02
West VirginiaBE0.050.0365.2265.170.020.01
BryantNEC0.050.038.3310.86-0.04-0.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0375.0074.610.020.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0350.0048.360.00-0.00
DukeACC0.050.0386.3683.090.030.02
KansasB120.050.0378.2678.390.030.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0361.9067.230.010.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0369.5761.310.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0369.5768.900.020.01
OregonP120.050.0369.5764.530.020.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0385.7178.050.030.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0340.9139.56-0.01-0.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.050.0354.5556.090.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.050.0319.0524.61-0.03-0.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.050.0345.0044.15-0.00-0.00