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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Valparaiso

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:100.6
Current RPI:91
Expected SOS:220
Current SOS:230
Current Record:8-2
Expected Record:19-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-2
Current OOC Record:8-2
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:76
Expected OOC SOS:249



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-230.00.02%
25-337.20.20%
24-445.41.20%
23-554.63.59%
22-665.39.27%
21-778.215.95%
20-891.720.83%
19-9106.820.75%
18-10123.014.77%
17-11139.48.12%
16-12158.13.81%
15-13177.21.07%
14-14198.20.30%
13-15214.00.10%
12-16240.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Valparaiso.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14East Tennessee St. (130.3)SCH90-76W100%0.0
11-16Missouri (178.6)SECA56-41L0%0.0
11-21Arkansas Pine Bluff (297.0)SWACN59-46W100%0.0
11-23Maine (324.1)AEN93-70W100%0.0
11-28Drake (284.8)MVCN66-46W100%0.0
11-29Murray St. (160.4)OVCN58-93W100%0.0
11-30Portland (183.7)WCCN70-55W100%0.0
12-3Eastern Kentucky (173.8)OVCA66-72W100%0.0
12-6New Mexico (109.7)MWCH46-63L0%0.0
12-13Ball St. (228.5)MACH65-62W100%0.0
12-20IPFW (179.6)SumA0-055%1.5
12-29James Madison (122.0)CAAA0-049%-0.3
1-2Oakland (233.6)HorzA0-065%4.7
1-4Youngstown St. (214.7)HorzH0-084%11.9
1-8Illinois Chicago (306.2)HorzH0-093%17.7
1-10Cleveland St. (144.9)HorzH0-071%6.7
1-17Wright St. (112.2)HorzA0-043%-2.0
1-20Youngstown St. (214.7)HorzA0-061%3.2
1-23Green Bay (43.7)HorzA0-022%-8.9
1-26Milwaukee (259.0)HorzH0-088%13.7
1-31Illinois Chicago (306.2)HorzA0-078%8.9
2-4Detroit (156.8)HorzH0-075%7.8
2-8Oakland (233.6)HorzH0-087%13.4
2-13Green Bay (43.7)HorzH0-049%-0.2
2-15Milwaukee (259.0)HorzA0-066%5.0
2-21Wright St. (112.2)HorzH0-072%6.7
2-25Detroit (156.8)HorzA0-047%-0.9
2-27Cleveland St. (144.9)HorzA0-043%-2.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Valparaiso's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Valparaiso's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Valparaiso.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ValparaisoHorz27.9326.3879.1771.8416.2911.52
Green BayHorz0.254.4875.0079.620.132.65
Cleveland St.Horz0.004.4633.3350.23-0.000.02
DetroitHorz0.004.4644.4449.59-0.00-0.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.004.4618.1821.80-0.00-2.51
OaklandHorz0.004.4630.0032.16-0.00-1.59
MilwaukeeHorz0.004.4533.3335.15-0.00-1.32
Wright St.Horz0.004.4560.0058.760.000.78
Youngstown St.Horz0.004.4545.4545.35-0.00-0.41
DrakeMVC5.561.9222.2220.70-3.09-1.12
Murray St.OVC5.531.8862.5064.081.380.53
Eastern KentuckyOVC5.361.8550.0057.780.000.29
PortlandWCC5.531.8575.0050.202.760.01
East Tennessee St.SC5.361.8283.3366.353.570.59
James MadisonCAA0.361.8270.0061.110.140.40
Ball St.MAC5.001.8133.3338.32-1.67-0.42
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC5.001.7922.2239.51-2.78-0.37
IPFWSum0.001.7957.1457.380.000.26
MaineAE5.001.7912.5021.84-3.75-1.01
MissouriSEC5.001.7937.5029.22-1.25-0.74
New MexicoMWC5.001.7966.6757.171.670.26
Bowling GreenMAC0.250.2875.0067.580.130.10
Morehead St.OVC0.360.2618.1846.16-0.23-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.360.2520.0041.46-0.21-0.04
ToledoMAC0.000.2560.0059.420.000.05
IUPUISum0.960.2320.0026.33-0.58-0.11
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.280.230.0023.71-0.28-0.12
BelmontOVC0.000.2360.0062.970.000.06
Oral RobertsSum0.280.2244.4445.59-0.03-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.280.2277.7871.110.150.09
South DakotaSum0.000.2027.2738.97-0.00-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.000.1962.5071.290.000.08
Western IllinoisSum0.000.1937.5031.95-0.00-0.07
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1966.6764.310.000.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.360.1933.3338.99-0.12-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.1971.4363.410.000.05
Kent St.MAC0.000.1971.4361.370.000.04
Central MichiganMAC0.530.1985.7170.350.380.08
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1655.5638.600.00-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1662.5066.700.000.05
UMKCWAC0.280.1622.2241.92-0.15-0.03
DePaulBE0.250.1660.0034.110.05-0.05
Western MichiganMAC0.250.1662.5054.980.060.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1660.0049.500.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.250.1577.7865.390.140.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1350.0049.620.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.1330.0028.50-0.00-0.06
UNC GreensboroSC0.360.1322.2237.75-0.20-0.03
WisconsinB100.000.1390.9188.390.000.10
Chicago St.WAC0.000.130.0011.40-0.00-0.10
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.280.1344.4447.53-0.03-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1350.0053.850.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.1220.0026.57-0.00-0.06
ArkansasSEC0.000.1277.7871.960.000.05
AuburnSEC0.000.1244.4436.35-0.00-0.03
BradleyMVC0.000.1233.3332.09-0.00-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1271.4359.920.000.02
UCFAmer0.000.1255.5634.940.00-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1287.5085.320.000.09
NortheasternCAA0.000.1266.6757.860.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.1090.0075.520.000.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.100.0016.85-0.00-0.06
Austin PeayOVC0.000.1022.2230.99-0.00-0.04
BYUWCC0.360.1066.6767.300.120.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0937.5038.60-0.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.360.0918.1828.02-0.23-0.04
VCUA100.000.0970.0071.420.000.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.280.0950.0032.620.00-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.250.0936.3638.88-0.07-0.02
George MasonA100.250.0925.0025.93-0.13-0.05
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0988.8963.660.000.03
Indiana St.MVC0.360.0933.3332.85-0.12-0.03
KentuckySEC0.360.09100.0094.790.360.08
Ohio St.B100.000.0990.0084.680.000.06
Iowa St.B120.000.0988.8963.800.000.03
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0970.0072.830.000.04
UNLVMWC0.280.0975.0050.750.140.00
ArizonaP120.280.09100.0080.590.280.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0936.3644.53-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.250.0972.7373.150.110.04
VirginiaACC0.000.09100.0085.310.000.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.090.0031.74-0.00-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.280.090.0028.26-0.28-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.360.090.008.88-0.36-0.07
Jackson St.SWAC0.250.0918.1844.62-0.16-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.250.0957.1461.670.040.02
ElonCAA0.280.0937.5047.87-0.07-0.00
DenverSum0.000.0750.0054.230.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0744.4455.75-0.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0755.5656.400.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0762.5054.970.000.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0742.8638.26-0.00-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0744.4451.58-0.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0775.0071.730.000.03
MercerSC0.000.0737.5042.45-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0733.3331.58-0.00-0.02
The CitadelSC0.000.0716.6730.84-0.00-0.03
VMISC0.000.0733.3339.22-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0777.7876.240.000.03
FurmanSC0.000.0725.0029.59-0.00-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.280.0744.4447.53-0.03-0.00
PurdueB100.280.0672.7363.730.130.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0642.8649.98-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0644.4451.04-0.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.0690.0090.940.000.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0636.3633.67-0.00-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0642.8652.71-0.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0625.0023.43-0.00-0.03
MontanaBSky0.000.0625.0052.09-0.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0625.0033.17-0.00-0.02
PacificWCC0.000.0650.0038.180.00-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.0675.0058.430.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0630.0039.44-0.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0671.4357.100.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0654.5557.300.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0650.0040.880.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0660.0064.620.000.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0046.150.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.360.0616.6727.56-0.24-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.280.060.007.84-0.28-0.05
XavierBE0.560.0680.0070.960.330.03
AlbanyAE0.000.0633.3348.89-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.000.0660.0053.820.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.060.0011.87-0.00-0.05
ClemsonACC0.000.0666.6745.670.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0677.7870.120.000.02
HartfordAE0.000.0650.0051.050.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0666.6772.340.000.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0085.330.000.04
MarshallCUSA0.000.0625.0038.92-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0690.9167.660.000.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0641.6744.33-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.0655.5642.550.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0637.5040.20-0.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0657.1464.620.000.02
NJITind0.280.0636.3640.98-0.08-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0690.0078.050.000.03
NorthwesternB100.000.0660.0040.620.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.0666.6758.060.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0666.6752.340.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0662.5073.190.000.03
SMUAmer0.000.0670.0071.330.000.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0036.67-0.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0644.4444.78-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0633.3354.74-0.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0655.5654.360.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.0610.0020.91-0.00-0.04
VermontAE0.000.0644.4457.85-0.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.0672.7367.180.000.02
AkronMAC0.250.0660.0056.560.050.01
HoustonAmer0.530.0671.4348.860.23-0.00
OhioMAC0.250.0642.8638.11-0.04-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.530.0666.6742.100.18-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0675.0068.680.000.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0078.050.000.03
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0630.0029.80-0.00-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0650.0039.340.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.250.0636.3664.92-0.070.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.0655.5650.970.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.0677.7873.370.000.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0633.3362.92-0.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0650.0044.900.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.060.007.39-0.00-0.05
DrexelCAA0.000.0625.0037.13-0.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.250.0662.5056.410.060.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0677.7878.540.000.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0610.0018.01-0.00-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0039.41-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0033.84-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0611.1144.62-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0666.6751.430.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0650.0053.700.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0657.1456.750.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0342.8638.75-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0377.7851.350.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0310.0018.58-0.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0310.0027.42-0.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0014.79-0.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0350.0052.710.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0344.4470.08-0.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0320.0029.81-0.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.360.0314.2945.19-0.26-0.00
WinthropBSth0.360.0328.5747.31-0.15-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0034.08-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0375.0069.120.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.280.0344.4445.64-0.03-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0322.2228.69-0.00-0.01
Oregon St.P120.280.0377.7855.460.150.00
Portland St.BSky0.280.0350.0041.830.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.280.0342.8642.32-0.04-0.00
UtahP120.360.0377.7879.480.200.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.280.0355.5649.500.03-0.00
ArmyPat0.000.0377.7868.780.000.01
ButlerBE0.280.0380.0072.550.170.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.280.0333.3344.71-0.09-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.250.0325.0032.77-0.13-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0344.4449.65-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0390.0067.260.000.01
WagnerNEC0.280.0314.2933.54-0.20-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0366.6754.660.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.250.030.0017.51-0.25-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0360.0064.930.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0362.5059.510.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.250.0314.2933.32-0.18-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0372.7365.930.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.0325.0042.64-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.250.0333.3345.28-0.08-0.00
LSUSEC0.000.0380.0064.110.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0370.0052.610.000.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0311.1125.02-0.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.280.0377.7867.290.150.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0362.5064.260.000.01
USCP120.250.0360.0036.120.05-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0375.0060.400.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.250.0310.0030.45-0.20-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0325.0044.59-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.000.0320.0043.08-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.250.0366.6754.830.080.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0350.0056.340.000.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0350.0055.810.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0355.5657.090.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0350.0058.360.000.00
StanfordP120.000.0375.0057.570.000.00
Texas TechB120.000.0388.8955.910.000.00