Valparaiso

Conference:	Horz
Expected RPI:	102.8
Current RPI:	106
Expected SOS:	168
Current SOS:	185
Current Record:	15-8
Expected Record:	18-11
Current Conf Record:	10-3
Expected Conf Record:	13-5
Probability of Auto Bid:	16.32%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	8-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-3
Current OOC Record:	5-5
Expected OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC RPI:	122
Expected OOC SOS:	151

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
21-8	71.4	1.61%
20-9	83.7	13.81%
19-10	95.4	33.21%
18-11	108.1	34.14%
17-12	122.1	14.64%
16-13	137.8	2.49%
15-14	157.3	0.09%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Valparaiso.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-7	Arizona (75.8)	P12	A	73-64	L	0%	0.0
11-11	Georgia Southern (228.1)	SC	A	81-90	W	100%	0.0
11-18	Akron (49.0)	MAC	H	62-59	W	100%	0.0
11-20	Duquesne (79.5)	A10	H	84-68	W	100%	0.0
11-25	Ohio St. (3.4)	B10	A	80-47	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Butler (143.2)	Horz	A	71-77	W	100%	0.0
12-7	IUPU Fort Wayne (255.0)	Sum	A	85-76	L	0%	0.0
12-10	Bowling Green (155.1)	MAC	H	82-79	W	100%	0.0
12-17	Oakland (135.3)	Sum	H	80-82	L	0%	0.0
12-20	Northern Illinois (337.4)	MAC	A	48-59	W	100%	0.0
12-23	IUPUI (245.2)	Sum	A	97-88	L	0%	0.0
12-29	Wisconsin Milwaukee (127.3)	Horz	H	55-57	L	0%	0.0
12-31	Wisconsin Green Bay (187.0)	Horz	H	90-87	W	100%	0.0
1-6	Detroit (181.7)	Horz	A	71-73	W	100%	0.0
1-8	Wright St. (216.3)	Horz	A	73-55	L	0%	0.0
1-13	Youngstown St. (163.1)	Horz	H	76-62	W	100%	0.0
1-15	Cleveland St. (52.0)	Horz	H	72-66	W	100%	0.0
1-19	Loyola Chicago (310.1)	Horz	A	48-69	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Illinois Chicago (290.5)	Horz	A	55-60	W	100%	0.0
1-26	Wisconsin Green Bay (187.0)	Horz	A	75-60	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Wisconsin Milwaukee (127.3)	Horz	A	52-55	W	100%	0.0
2-2	Detroit (181.7)	Horz	H	78-73	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Wright St. (216.3)	Horz	H	63-54	W	100%	0.0
2-9	Cleveland St. (52.0)	Horz	A	0-0		19%	-9.6
2-11	Youngstown St. (163.1)	Horz	A	0-0		47%	-0.9
2-14	Illinois Chicago (290.5)	Horz	H	0-0		86%	11.7
2-18	Loyola Marymount (107.0)	WCC	A	0-0		38%	-3.2
2-21	Loyola Chicago (310.1)	Horz	H	0-0		90%	13.8
2-24	Butler (143.2)	Horz	H	0-0		65%	4.3

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Valparaiso's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Valparaiso's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Valparaiso.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Valparaiso	Horz	26.53	26.42	69.52	67.55	10.36	9.28
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	5.21	4.48	57.14	58.30	0.74	0.74
Detroit	Horz	5.15	4.48	52.38	52.66	0.25	0.24
Cleveland St.	Horz	2.92	4.45	85.71	83.29	2.09	2.96
Wright St.	Horz	5.10	4.45	40.91	39.94	-0.93	-0.90
Illinois Chicago	Horz	3.06	4.44	31.58	31.89	-1.13	-1.61
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	5.07	4.44	33.33	38.53	-1.69	-1.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	3.01	4.44	52.63	53.51	0.16	0.31
Butler	Horz	3.16	4.42	52.17	53.19	0.14	0.28
Loyola Chicago	Horz	3.00	4.41	20.00	22.53	-1.80	-2.43
Akron	MAC	2.47	2.03	71.43	70.25	1.06	0.82
IUPUI	Sum	2.46	1.91	31.82	33.20	-0.90	-0.64
Northern Illinois	MAC	2.37	1.91	5.56	7.58	-2.11	-1.62
Bowling Green	MAC	2.42	1.90	50.00	50.57	0.00	0.02
Oakland	Sum	2.37	1.88	45.83	48.49	-0.20	-0.06
Duquesne	A10	2.43	1.87	61.90	58.36	0.58	0.31
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	2.31	1.84	31.58	32.72	-0.85	-0.64
Arizona	P12	2.27	1.78	65.22	67.51	0.69	0.62
Ohio St.	B10	2.26	1.78	86.36	84.97	1.65	1.25
Georgia Southern	SC	2.17	1.72	42.11	42.95	-0.34	-0.24
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.00	1.72	59.09	57.62	0.00	0.26
Toledo	MAC	0.32	0.37	38.10	40.81	-0.08	-0.07
Western Michigan	MAC	0.39	0.30	40.91	42.96	-0.07	-0.04
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.26	0.28	40.91	38.38	-0.05	-0.07
Ball St.	MAC	0.29	0.27	55.00	57.41	0.03	0.04
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.35	0.25	61.90	63.52	0.08	0.07
Western Illinois	Sum	0.34	0.25	52.63	48.41	0.02	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.30	0.24	28.57	34.20	-0.13	-0.08
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.19	0.24	34.78	35.20	-0.06	-0.07
Ohio	MAC	0.29	0.24	81.82	77.20	0.19	0.13
Miami OH	MAC	0.24	0.23	30.00	34.15	-0.10	-0.07
Buffalo	MAC	0.21	0.21	68.42	66.45	0.08	0.07
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.19	0.21	80.77	80.75	0.12	0.13
Kent St.	MAC	0.21	0.21	71.43	69.05	0.09	0.08
South Dakota	Sum	0.15	0.18	26.32	28.83	-0.07	-0.08
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.24	0.18	73.91	75.49	0.12	0.09
Southern Utah	Sum	0.20	0.18	45.45	44.30	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.25	0.18	75.00	73.97	0.13	0.09
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.11	0.16	33.33	34.47	-0.04	-0.05
Austin Peay	OVC	0.15	0.15	33.33	35.97	-0.05	-0.04
DePaul	BE	0.20	0.15	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.15	0.15	68.00	70.03	0.06	0.06
Purdue	B10	0.16	0.15	65.22	60.58	0.05	0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.09	0.15	81.82	81.49	0.06	0.09
Michigan St.	B10	0.15	0.14	76.19	72.91	0.08	0.07
Samford	SC	0.16	0.13	33.33	35.26	-0.05	-0.04
Furman	SC	0.11	0.13	47.62	48.83	-0.01	-0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.15	0.12	27.27	35.02	-0.07	-0.04
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.12	60.87	60.96	0.02	0.03
Marquette	BE	0.20	0.12	79.17	75.98	0.12	0.06
Penn St.	B10	0.15	0.12	41.67	38.67	-0.03	-0.03
Evansville	MVC	0.10	0.12	45.45	44.02	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.20	0.12	47.62	51.08	-0.01	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.11	0.12	56.52	54.22	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.15	0.12	65.22	63.74	0.05	0.03
George Washington	A10	0.15	0.12	34.78	32.08	-0.04	-0.04
Illinois	B10	0.10	0.12	72.73	64.43	0.05	0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.10	0.12	60.00	59.06	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.19	0.12	78.26	72.34	0.11	0.05
Florida	SEC	0.18	0.11	82.61	77.63	0.12	0.06
Indiana	B10	0.14	0.11	75.00	75.78	0.07	0.06
Chicago St.	GWC	0.05	0.09	4.76	9.95	-0.05	-0.08
Iowa	B10	0.16	0.09	54.17	49.44	0.01	-0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.10	0.09	63.64	63.16	0.03	0.02
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.09	40.91	34.50	-0.01	-0.03
South Florida	BE	0.10	0.09	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.09	77.27	77.67	0.03	0.05
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.14	0.09	43.48	44.25	-0.02	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.14	0.09	31.82	42.13	-0.05	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.14	0.09	68.18	69.10	0.05	0.03
St. John's	BE	0.14	0.09	43.48	40.28	-0.02	-0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.09	0.09	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Louisville	BE	0.09	0.09	78.26	72.66	0.05	0.04
Rhode Island	A10	0.10	0.09	20.83	20.60	-0.06	-0.05
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.09	54.55	56.79	0.00	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.14	0.09	19.05	25.52	-0.09	-0.04
North Florida	ASun	0.14	0.09	45.83	46.68	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.09	0.09	69.57	68.29	0.04	0.03
Michigan	B10	0.09	0.08	72.73	66.81	0.04	0.03
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.07	58.33	59.98	0.01	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.07	76.19	76.76	0.03	0.04
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.07	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.07	9.52	11.44	-0.04	-0.05
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.07	59.09	57.93	0.01	0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.06	21.74	22.76	-0.03	-0.03
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.06	42.86	39.66	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.11	0.06	81.82	76.80	0.07	0.03
Wyoming	MWC	0.11	0.06	76.19	70.73	0.06	0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.00	0.06	24.00	24.86	-0.00	-0.03
Brigham Young	WCC	0.00	0.06	75.00	76.00	0.00	0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.06	17.39	19.81	-0.03	-0.04
Idaho St.	BSky	0.00	0.06	33.33	33.88	-0.00	-0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.06	72.73	68.28	0.02	0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.00	0.06	31.82	33.83	-0.00	-0.02
Portland	WCC	0.00	0.06	21.74	21.70	-0.00	-0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.00	0.06	33.33	33.82	-0.00	-0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.00	0.06	56.52	53.77	0.00	0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.00	0.06	28.57	26.30	-0.00	-0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.00	0.06	90.91	87.74	0.00	0.05
Utah Valley	GWC	0.10	0.06	54.55	57.69	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.06	83.33	84.76	0.03	0.04
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.09	0.06	30.00	37.30	-0.04	-0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.00	0.06	54.55	54.30	0.00	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.00	0.06	40.00	40.18	-0.00	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.09	0.06	62.50	61.50	0.02	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.09	0.06	65.22	62.65	0.03	0.02
Temple	A10	0.05	0.06	77.27	75.06	0.03	0.03
Western Kentucky	SB	0.10	0.06	34.78	34.48	-0.03	-0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.06	13.64	16.14	-0.03	-0.04
Air Force	MWC	0.09	0.06	47.37	42.16	-0.00	-0.01
Boston University	AE	0.05	0.06	48.00	51.88	-0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.09	0.06	69.57	65.47	0.04	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.00	0.06	79.17	78.10	0.00	0.03
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.06	34.78	38.77	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.06	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.06	26.32	29.79	-0.02	-0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.06	69.57	65.87	0.02	0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.06	30.43	31.43	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.06	66.67	62.65	0.02	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.09	0.06	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.06	61.90	55.14	0.01	0.01
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.06	25.00	25.13	-0.02	-0.03
Utah	P12	0.05	0.06	18.18	15.01	-0.03	-0.04
Washington	P12	0.05	0.06	69.57	66.54	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.03	35.00	39.29	-0.02	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.03	14.29	17.17	-0.04	-0.02
Elon	SC	0.05	0.03	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.03	66.67	69.69	0.02	0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.00	0.03	34.78	33.46	-0.00	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.03	52.38	52.87	0.00	0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.03	38.10	37.86	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.03	4.35	9.66	-0.05	-0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.03	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.03	34.78	37.24	-0.02	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.06	0.03	42.86	41.13	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.00	0.03	26.32	29.71	-0.00	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.06	0.03	34.78	32.06	-0.02	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.00	0.03	55.00	54.80	0.00	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.00	0.03	72.73	71.71	0.00	0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.00	0.03	90.48	87.91	0.00	0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.00	0.03	25.00	37.58	-0.00	-0.01
North Texas	SB	0.00	0.03	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Florida International	SB	0.05	0.03	33.33	37.16	-0.02	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.03	76.00	72.50	0.03	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.03	80.95	77.38	0.03	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	41.20	-0.00	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.03	25.00	28.52	-0.02	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.03	18.18	22.22	-0.03	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.03	70.83	68.82	0.02	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.03	54.17	54.75	0.00	0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.58	0.02	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.00	0.03	45.45	46.99	-0.00	-0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.00	0.03	25.00	23.75	-0.00	-0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.03	60.87	58.16	0.01	0.00
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.03	62.50	62.49	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.03	60.87	59.76	0.01	0.01
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.05	0.03	57.14	60.75	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.04	0.03	69.57	65.15	0.02	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.03	17.39	24.41	-0.03	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.03	19.05	22.37	-0.03	-0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.04	0.03	15.00	15.73	-0.03	-0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.04	0.03	47.62	44.63	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.00	0.03	62.50	62.06	0.00	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.03	59.09	59.72	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.03	33.33	37.25	-0.02	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.04	0.03	45.45	44.66	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.03	80.00	78.06	0.03	0.02
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	65.17	0.02	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.03	8.33	10.86	-0.04	-0.02
California	P12	0.05	0.03	75.00	74.61	0.02	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.36	83.09	0.03	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.03	78.26	78.39	0.03	0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.03	61.90	67.23	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.00	0.03	69.57	61.31	0.00	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	69.57	68.90	0.02	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	64.53	0.02	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.03	85.71	78.05	0.03	0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.03	40.91	39.56	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.09	0.00	0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.03	19.05	24.61	-0.03	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.03	45.00	44.15	-0.00	-0.00