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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Valparaiso

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:50.0
Current RPI:50
Expected SOS:226
Current SOS:226
Current Record:25-5
Expected Record:25-5
Current Conf Record:15-3
Expected Conf Record:15-3
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-2
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:72
Expected OOC SOS:273



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-550.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Valparaiso.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14East Tennessee St. (192.0)SCH90-76W100%0.0
11-16Missouri (218.0)SECA56-41L0%0.0
11-21Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)SWACN59-46W100%0.0
11-23Maine (339.0)AEN93-70W100%0.0
11-28Drake (269.0)MVCN66-46W100%0.0
11-29Murray St. (63.0)OVCN58-93W100%0.0
11-30Portland (149.0)WCCN70-55W100%0.0
12-3Eastern Kentucky (156.0)OVCA66-72W100%0.0
12-6New Mexico (172.0)MWCH46-63L0%0.0
12-13Ball St. (284.0)MACH65-62W100%0.0
12-20IPFW (215.0)SumA72-75W100%0.0
12-29James Madison (148.0)CAAA52-79W100%0.0
1-2Oakland (155.0)HorzA89-75L0%0.0
1-4Youngstown St. (291.0)HorzH79-64W100%0.0
1-8Illinois Chicago (297.0)HorzH85-56W100%0.0
1-10Cleveland St. (127.0)HorzH58-56W100%0.0
1-17Wright St. (264.0)HorzA56-66W100%0.0
1-20Youngstown St. (291.0)HorzA62-77W100%0.0
1-23Green Bay (54.0)HorzA51-50L0%0.0
1-26Milwaukee (206.0)HorzH73-48W100%0.0
1-31Illinois Chicago (297.0)HorzA65-70W100%0.0
2-4Detroit (205.0)HorzH78-70W100%0.0
2-8Oakland (155.0)HorzH82-76W100%0.0
2-13Green Bay (54.0)HorzH63-59W100%0.0
2-15Milwaukee (206.0)HorzA55-62W100%0.0
2-21Wright St. (264.0)HorzH55-48W100%0.0
2-25Detroit (205.0)HorzA63-60L0%0.0
2-27Cleveland St. (127.0)HorzA53-56W100%0.0
3-7Cleveland St. (127.0)HorzH60-55W100%0.0
3-10Green Bay (54.0)HorzH54-44W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Valparaiso's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Valparaiso's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Valparaiso.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ValparaisoHorz26.5126.5186.0386.0319.1019.10
Green BayHorz5.925.9277.7877.783.293.29
Cleveland St.Horz5.895.8959.2659.261.091.09
Illinois ChicagoHorz4.434.4326.6726.67-2.07-2.07
DetroitHorz4.374.3741.3841.38-0.75-0.75
OaklandHorz4.284.2846.4346.43-0.31-0.31
Youngstown St.Horz4.284.2829.6329.63-1.74-1.74
Wright St.Horz4.284.2833.3333.33-1.43-1.43
MilwaukeeHorz4.224.2246.1546.15-0.32-0.32
DrakeMVC1.811.8127.5927.59-0.81-0.81
Murray St.OVC1.751.7586.2186.211.271.27
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.721.7262.9662.960.450.45
PortlandWCC1.721.7251.7251.720.060.06
East Tennessee St.SC1.701.7051.8551.850.060.06
James MadisonCAA1.701.7061.2961.290.380.38
Ball St.MAC1.691.6921.4321.43-0.97-0.97
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.671.6738.7138.71-0.38-0.38
IPFWSum1.671.6750.0050.000.000.00
MaineAE1.671.6710.3410.34-1.32-1.32
MissouriSEC1.671.6723.3323.33-0.89-0.89
New MexicoMWC1.671.6746.6746.67-0.11-0.11
Bowling GreenMAC0.310.3166.6766.670.100.10
Morehead St.OVC0.280.2846.8846.88-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.260.2667.7467.740.090.09
ToledoMAC0.250.2560.6160.610.050.05
EvansvilleMVC0.220.2260.0060.000.040.04
Georgia St.SB0.220.2271.8871.880.100.10
South DakotaSum0.210.2148.3948.39-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.210.2132.2632.26-0.07-0.07
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.200.2038.4638.46-0.05-0.05
Western CarolinaSC0.200.2043.3343.33-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.200.2053.3353.330.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.200.2051.7251.720.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.200.2023.0823.08-0.11-0.11
Illinois St.MVC0.170.1762.5062.500.040.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.170.1734.4834.48-0.05-0.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.170.1756.6756.670.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.170.1771.4371.430.070.07
Kent St.MAC0.170.1764.5264.520.050.05
UMKCWAC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.140.1491.1891.180.120.12
Western MichiganMAC0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
DePaulBE0.140.1437.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.140.1417.2417.24-0.09-0.09
San FranciscoWCC0.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.1457.1457.140.020.02
BradleyMVC0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Southern IllinoisMVC0.140.1434.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.120.1235.7135.71-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.120.1226.6726.67-0.05-0.05
ArkansasSEC0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
AuburnSEC0.110.1141.1841.18-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
Miami FLACC0.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
VCUA100.110.1174.2974.290.050.05
LongwoodBSth0.110.1128.1228.12-0.05-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.110.1190.6290.620.090.09
Wichita St.MVC0.110.1187.1087.100.080.08
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.110.1167.6567.650.040.04
UCFAmer0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0910.3410.34-0.07-0.07
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
George MasonA100.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.080.08100.00100.000.080.08
Ohio St.B100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
AlbanyAE0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0865.5265.520.030.03
IonaMAAC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
LouisvilleACC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
UC IrvineBW0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Iowa St.B120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
ArizonaP120.080.0891.1891.180.070.07
Michigan St.B100.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
UNLVMWC0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.080.000.00-0.08-0.08
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
HofstraCAA0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
DenverSum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
FurmanSC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
MercerSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
MontanaBSky0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
SamfordSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0629.6329.63-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
DartmouthIvy0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
PurdueB100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
FIUCUSA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
ClemsonACC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.060.0693.9493.940.050.05
HartfordAE0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
MarylandB100.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
NJITind0.060.0656.0056.000.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0690.9190.910.050.05
PacificWCC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
PittsburghACC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
VermontAE0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
AkronMAC0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
OhioMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
OregonP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0562.9662.960.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0527.2727.27-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0518.7518.75-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0564.7164.710.020.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
YaleIvy0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0375.8675.860.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
UtahP120.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
WagnerNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
LipscombASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
USCP120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Texas TechB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00