Valparaiso

Conference:	Horz
Expected RPI:	58.0
Current RPI:	58
Expected SOS:	152
Current SOS:	152
Current Record:	25-7
Expected Record:	25-7
Current Conf Record:	15-3
Expected Conf Record:	15-3
Probability of Auto Bid:	100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	13-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-1
Current OOC Record:	10-4
Expected OOC Record:	10-4
Expected OOC RPI:	72
Expected OOC SOS:	219

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
25-7	58.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Valparaiso.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Georgia Southern (266.0)	SC	H	85-54	W	100%
11-13	Northern Illinois (333.0)	MAC	H	69-46	W	100%
11-15	Nebraska (104.0)	B10	A	50-48	L	0%
11-18	Kent St. (131.0)	MAC	A	83-88	W	100%
11-23	Chicago St. (320.0)	GWC	H	67-46	W	100%
11-24	Bethune Cookman (277.0)	MEAC	H	77-64	W	100%
12-2	St. Louis (15.0)	A10	A	62-49	L	0%
12-5	IUPU Fort Wayne (245.0)	Sum	H	63-52	W	100%
12-8	New Mexico (2.0)	MWC	A	65-52	L	0%
12-15	Missouri St. (203.0)	MVC	A	54-62	W	100%
12-17	Oakland (152.0)	Sum	A	70-68	L	0%
12-20	IUPUI (326.0)	Sum	H	89-69	W	100%
12-29	Murray St. (110.0)	OVC	A	64-66	W	100%
1-2	Loyola Chicago (223.0)	Horz	H	54-63	L	0%
1-4	Cleveland St. (199.0)	Horz	H	74-50	W	100%
1-9	Illinois Chicago (169.0)	Horz	A	70-75	W	100%
1-12	Wisconsin Milwaukee (307.0)	Horz	A	52-76	W	100%
1-17	Detroit (63.0)	Horz	A	88-89	W	100%
1-19	Wright St. (129.0)	Horz	H	69-63	W	100%
1-23	Wisconsin Green Bay (160.0)	Horz	H	73-61	W	100%
1-30	Youngstown St. (188.0)	Horz	A	80-68	L	0%
2-1	Wisconsin Milwaukee (307.0)	Horz	H	71-40	W	100%
2-5	Illinois Chicago (169.0)	Horz	H	86-61	W	100%
2-9	Cleveland St. (199.0)	Horz	A	72-80	W	100%
2-12	Wright St. (129.0)	Horz	A	61-68	W	100%
2-16	Detroit (63.0)	Horz	H	74-84	L	0%
2-19	Loyola Chicago (223.0)	Horz	A	76-85	W	100%
2-23	Eastern Kentucky (70.0)	OVC	H	82-60	W	100%
2-26	Youngstown St. (188.0)	Horz	H	73-64	W	100%
3-2	Wisconsin Green Bay (160.0)	Horz	A	56-75	W	100%
3-9	Wisconsin Green Bay (160.0)	Horz	H	70-69	W	100%
3-12	Wright St. (129.0)	Horz	H	62-54	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Valparaiso's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Valparaiso's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Valparaiso.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Valparaiso	Horz	26.42	26.42	79.86	79.86	15.78	15.78
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	5.59	5.59	58.62	58.62	0.96	0.96
Wright St.	Horz	5.57	5.57	68.97	68.97	2.11	2.11
Illinois Chicago	Horz	4.12	4.12	55.17	55.17	0.43	0.43
Youngstown St.	Horz	4.11	4.11	48.15	48.15	-0.15	-0.15
Loyola Chicago	Horz	4.08	4.08	46.43	46.43	-0.29	-0.29
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	4.07	4.07	21.43	21.43	-2.33	-2.33
Detroit	Horz	4.02	4.02	60.71	60.71	0.86	0.86
Cleveland St.	Horz	4.01	4.01	40.74	40.74	-0.74	-0.74
Kent St.	MAC	1.83	1.83	61.29	61.29	0.41	0.41
Northern Illinois	MAC	1.74	1.74	14.29	14.29	-1.24	-1.24
IUPUI	Sum	1.72	1.72	13.79	13.79	-1.24	-1.24
Chicago St.	GWC	1.71	1.71	25.93	25.93	-0.82	-0.82
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	1.69	1.69	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
Oakland	Sum	1.69	1.69	44.83	44.83	-0.17	-0.17
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	1.64	1.64	38.71	38.71	-0.37	-0.37
New Mexico	MWC	1.64	1.64	84.85	84.85	1.14	1.14
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	1.62	1.62	73.33	73.33	0.75	0.75
Murray St.	OVC	1.61	1.61	67.86	67.86	0.58	0.58
Nebraska	B10	1.59	1.59	43.75	43.75	-0.20	-0.20
St. Louis	A10	1.59	1.59	81.25	81.25	0.99	0.99
Georgia Southern	SC	1.56	1.56	40.00	40.00	-0.31	-0.31
Missouri St.	MVC	1.56	1.56	30.00	30.00	-0.62	-0.62
Bowling Green	MAC	0.36	0.36	36.67	36.67	-0.10	-0.10
Toledo	MAC	0.31	0.31	53.57	53.57	0.02	0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.29	0.29	34.48	34.48	-0.09	-0.09
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.28	0.28	70.97	70.97	0.12	0.12
Western Illinois	Sum	0.26	0.26	71.43	71.43	0.11	0.11
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.26	0.26	35.48	35.48	-0.07	-0.07
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.26	0.26	70.97	70.97	0.11	0.11
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.25	0.25	37.04	37.04	-0.07	-0.07
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.23	0.23	41.94	41.94	-0.04	-0.04
Central Michigan	MAC	0.23	0.23	33.33	33.33	-0.08	-0.08
South Dakota	Sum	0.23	0.23	28.57	28.57	-0.10	-0.10
Miami OH	MAC	0.22	0.22	26.67	26.67	-0.10	-0.10
Akron	MAC	0.21	0.21	80.65	80.65	0.13	0.13
Drake	MVC	0.20	0.20	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.18	0.18	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.17	0.17	67.65	67.65	0.06	0.06
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.17	0.17	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.17	0.17	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.17	0.17	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
DePaul	BE	0.16	0.16	34.38	34.38	-0.05	-0.05
Ball St.	MAC	0.16	0.16	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.16	0.16	28.00	28.00	-0.07	-0.07
Western Michigan	MAC	0.16	0.16	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.15	0.15	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.15	0.15	22.58	22.58	-0.08	-0.08
Buffalo	MAC	0.15	0.15	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Bradley	MVC	0.15	0.15	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Davidson	SC	0.15	0.15	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
Evansville	MVC	0.15	0.15	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.13	0.13	76.47	76.47	0.07	0.07
Michigan St.	B10	0.13	0.13	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
Nevada	MWC	0.12	0.12	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.11	0.11	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	BE	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Belmont	OVC	0.10	0.10	80.00	80.00	0.06	0.06
Michigan	B10	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.10	0.10	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Pittsburgh	BE	0.10	0.10	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Furman	SC	0.10	0.10	17.24	17.24	-0.07	-0.07
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.10	0.10	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	57.69	57.69	0.02	0.02
Temple	A10	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Indiana St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.10	0.10	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Butler	A10	0.10	0.10	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Colorado St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
Cincinnati	BE	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
San Diego St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.08	0.08	35.71	35.71	-0.02	-0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.08	0.08	20.69	20.69	-0.05	-0.05
St. John's	BE	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.08	0.08	17.24	17.24	-0.05	-0.05
Dayton	A10	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
George Washington	A10	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.08	0.08	7.14	7.14	-0.07	-0.07
Tulane	CUSA	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.08	0.08	10.00	10.00	-0.06	-0.06
Western Carolina	SC	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Wofford	SC	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Northwestern	B10	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.07	0.07	67.86	67.86	0.03	0.03
Mercer	ASun	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.07	0.07	19.35	19.35	-0.04	-0.04
Idaho St.	BSky	0.07	0.07	17.24	17.24	-0.05	-0.05
Marquette	BE	0.07	0.07	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Southern Utah	BSky	0.07	0.07	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Utah	P12	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.07	0.07	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.07	0.07	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Wyoming	MWC	0.07	0.07	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.06	0.06	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	-0.05	-0.05
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.05	74.29	74.29	0.03	0.03
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.05	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	21.43	21.43	-0.03	-0.03
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.03	-0.03
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Fresno St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	29.63	29.63	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	SC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
NC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.02	0.02	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.02	0.02	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Florida International	SB	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.02	0.02	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
New Orleans	ind	0.02	0.02	18.18	18.18	-0.02	-0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.02	0.02	59.26	59.26	0.00	0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Fordham	A10	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.02	0.02	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.02	0.02	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
La Salle	A10	0.02	0.02	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.02	0.02	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.02	0.02	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Portland	WCC	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01