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Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


Valparaiso

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:36.2
Current RPI:46
Expected SOS:171
Current SOS:186
Current Record:19-4
Expected Record:24-5
Current Conf Record:11-1
Expected Conf Record:16-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-0
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:20
Expected OOC SOS:51



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-428.135.39%
24-536.042.52%
23-647.117.98%
22-759.63.65%
21-871.30.43%
20-983.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Valparaiso.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13IPFW (82.0)SumH78-64W100%0.0
11-15Iona (122.3)MAACH83-58W100%0.0
11-17Rhode Island (96.7)A10A55-58W100%0.0
11-22Oregon (6.2)P12A73-67L0%0.0
11-24Oregon St. (47.5)P12A57-63W100%0.0
11-28Ball St. (168.9)MACA69-66L0%0.0
12-3Belmont (82.0)OVCH61-57W100%0.0
12-9Indiana St. (159.2)MVCA63-69W100%0.0
12-11Chicago St. (344.4)WACA53-71W100%0.0
12-19Missouri St. (235.3)MVCH74-45W100%0.0
12-28Belmont (82.0)OVCA85-81L0%0.0
1-2Illinois Chicago (345.4)HorzH75-47W100%0.0
1-8Oakland (122.4)HorzA67-84W100%0.0
1-10Detroit (218.4)HorzA74-92W100%0.0
1-14Milwaukee (155.0)HorzH68-56W100%0.0
1-16Green Bay (155.7)HorzH85-70W100%0.0
1-18Youngstown St. (260.5)HorzA65-96W100%0.0
1-22Wright St. (172.8)HorzA73-62L0%0.0
1-24Northern Kentucky (246.9)HorzA46-71W100%0.0
1-28Cleveland St. (273.6)HorzH77-52W100%0.0
1-30Youngstown St. (260.5)HorzH97-68W100%0.0
2-6Illinois Chicago (345.4)HorzA55-73W100%0.0
2-11Northern Kentucky (246.9)HorzH64-52W100%0.0
2-13Wright St. (172.8)HorzH0-092%15.4
2-16Cleveland St. (273.6)HorzA0-093%16.2
2-19Oakland (122.4)HorzH0-082%9.9
2-21Detroit (218.4)HorzH0-095%17.9
2-26Milwaukee (155.0)HorzA0-070%5.6
2-28Green Bay (155.7)HorzA0-076%7.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Valparaiso's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Valparaiso's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Valparaiso.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ValparaisoHorz26.4626.4788.5788.0320.4120.14
Cleveland St.Horz3.034.5122.7324.19-1.65-2.33
OaklandHorz3.044.4668.0069.401.101.73
Green BayHorz2.944.4559.0961.070.540.99
MilwaukeeHorz2.894.4263.6465.980.791.41
Wright St.Horz2.954.4252.1753.800.130.34
Youngstown St.Horz4.924.4233.3334.65-1.64-1.36
DetroitHorz2.934.4147.6247.18-0.14-0.25
Illinois ChicagoHorz4.914.4110.5311.52-3.88-3.39
Northern KentuckyHorz4.964.4135.0037.93-1.49-1.06
BelmontOVC4.403.5169.5767.871.721.25
Chicago St.WAC2.311.874.558.00-2.10-1.57
Rhode IslandA102.271.8160.8759.150.490.33
Indiana St.MVC2.271.8152.1751.250.100.05
Oregon St.P122.271.8166.6760.940.760.40
OregonP122.221.7978.2676.421.260.94
Ball St.MAC2.271.7859.0955.660.410.20
Missouri St.MVC2.221.7839.1338.75-0.48-0.40
IonaMAAC2.271.7863.6462.840.620.46
IPFWSum2.171.7273.9171.111.040.73
ToledoMAC0.430.4260.8762.080.090.10
Bowling GreenMAC0.280.2750.0045.770.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.290.2445.8343.78-0.02-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.230.2452.1753.440.010.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.330.2439.1341.05-0.07-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.200.2160.0057.650.040.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.230.2116.6719.49-0.15-0.13
DrakeMVC0.240.1820.8323.28-0.14-0.10
Illinois St.MVC0.240.1856.0054.080.030.01
Oral RobertsSum0.230.1841.6742.39-0.04-0.03
StanfordP120.190.1847.6244.06-0.01-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.270.1872.0073.080.120.08
LipscombASun0.220.1828.0030.49-0.10-0.07
Murray St.OVC0.180.1847.8350.89-0.010.00
South DakotaSum0.180.1844.0043.56-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.190.1882.6181.140.120.11
Eastern MichiganMAC0.140.1840.0043.39-0.03-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.180.1773.0872.610.080.08
Western IllinoisSum0.200.1531.5832.04-0.07-0.06
Western KentuckyCUSA0.180.1545.4546.08-0.02-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.230.1513.0415.26-0.17-0.11
Jacksonville St.OVC0.220.1524.0024.16-0.12-0.08
UtahP120.230.1570.8368.520.100.06
BradleyMVC0.180.1512.0011.95-0.14-0.11
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.130.1550.0049.320.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.180.1538.4638.50-0.04-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.190.1565.2260.600.060.03
RiderMAAC0.190.1540.0042.04-0.04-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.140.1534.7833.02-0.04-0.05
UCFAmer0.150.1350.0044.650.00-0.01
MichiganB100.190.1270.8366.750.080.04
XavierBE0.140.1287.5081.850.110.08
MinnesotaB100.140.1225.0027.26-0.07-0.05
TulsaAmer0.190.1266.6764.700.060.04
CaliforniaP120.140.1266.6764.780.050.04
ColoradoP120.190.1270.8365.580.080.04
UCLAP120.090.1256.5253.400.010.01
USCP120.090.1278.2673.130.050.06
Arizona St.P120.180.1254.1751.700.020.00
Austin PeayOVC0.180.1240.0042.85-0.04-0.02
DenverSum0.090.1252.0049.300.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.190.1224.0024.61-0.10-0.06
Northern IowaMVC0.140.1256.0055.450.020.01
Notre DameACC0.140.1270.8367.930.060.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.1273.9174.640.040.06
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.1268.1865.170.030.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.1265.2264.340.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.090.1273.9176.700.040.06
WisconsinB100.090.1262.5057.000.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.1247.6249.39-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.140.1263.6461.470.040.03
WashingtonP120.040.1262.5060.140.010.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.140.1226.9228.60-0.06-0.05
DePaulBE0.150.0933.3334.02-0.05-0.03
IllinoisB100.150.0945.8344.07-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.140.0943.4850.64-0.020.00
MarquetteBE0.130.0964.0057.890.040.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.100.0934.7834.97-0.03-0.03
AmericanPat0.140.0929.1731.19-0.06-0.03
DuquesneA100.050.0960.8756.270.010.01
George MasonA100.090.0933.3333.63-0.03-0.03
MarylandB100.090.0987.5083.660.070.06
Western MichiganMAC0.140.0931.8232.68-0.05-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.0629.1733.11-0.04-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0648.0048.60-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0672.7367.600.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.100.0652.1749.150.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0658.3359.970.010.01
West VirginiaB120.100.0679.1778.100.060.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0666.6767.670.030.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0682.6181.130.030.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0665.2268.600.010.02
SeattleWAC0.090.0647.6245.02-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0628.5732.75-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0614.2915.44-0.03-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0633.3334.95-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.100.0645.4551.69-0.010.00
ArizonaP120.090.0679.1778.290.060.03
Washington St.P120.000.0634.7831.64-0.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.090.0670.8369.000.040.02
BYUWCC0.090.0668.0070.260.030.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0631.8230.08-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0642.3144.53-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0627.2727.80-0.02-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0660.8760.240.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0654.1754.090.010.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0650.0052.870.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.050.0655.0053.670.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0654.1752.000.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0625.0026.38-0.04-0.03
KentuckySEC0.050.0675.0072.610.020.03
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0645.4543.23-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.090.0621.7424.25-0.05-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0668.1867.730.030.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0680.0081.160.030.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0658.3358.580.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.090.0645.0048.13-0.01-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0660.8759.830.020.01
PacificWCC0.050.0623.8125.99-0.02-0.03
PurdueB100.090.0680.0077.910.060.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.0640.9143.32-0.02-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0633.3332.04-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.000.0665.3864.970.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.090.0636.3636.29-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0650.0050.500.000.00
NavyPat0.090.0664.0064.460.030.02
Saint LouisA100.090.0634.7832.39-0.03-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.040.0635.0034.83-0.01-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.040.0640.0040.34-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.040.0624.0026.44-0.02-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.040.0654.5552.530.000.00
DaytonA100.000.0686.9682.160.000.04
FordhamA100.050.0652.3850.690.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.040.0659.0955.160.010.01
La SalleA100.090.0619.0520.30-0.06-0.03
MassachusettsA100.050.0643.4842.40-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.040.0680.0081.560.030.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0683.3381.280.060.03
VirginiaACC0.040.0683.3378.460.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0328.5733.30-0.02-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0333.3330.63-0.02-0.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0370.8367.970.020.01
KansasB120.050.0382.6179.200.030.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0341.6741.18-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0357.1455.360.010.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0364.0062.090.010.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0327.2728.16-0.02-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0328.5734.11-0.02-0.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0325.0024.93-0.02-0.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0313.0416.42-0.03-0.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0366.6766.770.020.01
IndianaB100.050.0380.0075.690.030.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0347.8348.57-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0343.4843.77-0.01-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0345.8342.30-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.050.0322.7327.39-0.02-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0345.4554.18-0.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0326.0928.41-0.02-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0347.6249.28-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.050.0343.4842.54-0.01-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0360.8755.980.010.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0336.8442.88-0.01-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0340.9138.82-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0373.9168.450.020.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0360.8760.440.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0356.5257.060.010.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0363.6461.550.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0350.0054.180.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0347.8351.92-0.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.050.0321.7424.60-0.03-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0326.3232.40-0.02-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0358.3360.900.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0338.1037.67-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0352.1754.130.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0369.5770.020.020.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0352.1755.070.000.00
BrownIvy0.050.0331.5831.01-0.02-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0361.9058.170.000.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0375.0071.960.020.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0341.6739.59-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0370.8367.980.020.01
NebraskaB100.050.0352.0050.760.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0358.3363.180.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0372.0069.130.020.01
RichmondA100.050.0356.5255.820.010.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0372.7370.410.020.01
TCUB120.050.0345.8339.36-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0370.8371.050.000.01