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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Valparaiso

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:71.0
Current RPI:71
Expected SOS:187
Current SOS:187
Current Record:23-8
Expected Record:23-8
Current Conf Record:14-5
Expected Conf Record:14-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-1
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:56
Expected OOC SOS:117



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-871.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Valparaiso.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Southern Utah (341.0)BSkyH79-65W100%0.0
11-14Coppin St. (336.0)MEACH78-58W100%0.0
11-17Oregon (9.0)P12A76-54L0%0.0
11-21Alabama (78.0)SECN68-60W100%0.0
11-23BYU (65.0)WCCN92-89W100%0.0
11-27Ball St. (169.0)MACH79-73W100%0.0
11-29Rhode Island (31.0)A10H65-62W100%0.0
12-7Kentucky (3.0)SECA87-63L0%0.0
12-10Missouri St. (210.0)MVCA81-84W100%0.0
12-17Indiana St. (234.0)MVCH89-71W100%0.0
12-22Santa Clara (126.0)WCCH80-87L0%0.0
12-28Chicago St. (318.0)WACH80-61W100%0.0
12-30Illinois Chicago (249.0)HorzA59-70W100%0.0
1-6Oakland (109.0)HorzH66-78L0%0.0
1-8Detroit (289.0)HorzH81-74W100%0.0
1-12Youngstown St. (251.0)HorzA62-78W100%0.0
1-14Cleveland St. (260.0)HorzA67-78W100%0.0
1-16Green Bay (157.0)HorzH80-56W100%0.0
1-22Illinois Chicago (249.0)HorzH96-65W100%0.0
1-27Wright St. (115.0)HorzH70-55W100%0.0
1-29Northern Kentucky (87.0)HorzH65-58W100%0.0
2-2Milwaukee (256.0)HorzA53-71W100%0.0
2-4Green Bay (157.0)HorzA86-69L0%0.0
2-9Cleveland St. (260.0)HorzH78-57W100%0.0
2-11Youngstown St. (251.0)HorzH82-72W100%0.0
2-17Oakland (109.0)HorzA82-71L0%0.0
2-19Detroit (289.0)HorzA63-83W100%0.0
2-21Milwaukee (256.0)HorzH67-61W100%0.0
2-24Wright St. (115.0)HorzA74-84W100%0.0
2-26Northern Kentucky (87.0)HorzA82-78L0%0.0
3-4Milwaukee (256.0)HorzN41-43L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Valparaiso's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Valparaiso's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Valparaiso.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ValparaisoHorz26.3726.3774.8174.8113.0813.08
MilwaukeeHorz5.845.8429.0329.03-2.45-2.45
Northern KentuckyHorz4.294.2970.0070.001.721.72
Youngstown St.Horz4.274.2736.6736.67-1.14-1.14
Illinois ChicagoHorz4.274.2744.8344.83-0.44-0.44
OaklandHorz4.214.2171.4371.431.811.81
Cleveland St.Horz4.184.1828.5728.57-1.79-1.79
DetroitHorz4.184.1825.0025.00-2.09-2.09
Wright St.Horz4.164.1664.2964.291.191.19
Green BayHorz4.164.1655.5655.560.460.46
Chicago St.WAC1.741.7410.7110.71-1.37-1.37
Ball St.MAC1.721.7264.5264.520.500.50
KentuckySEC1.721.7284.8584.851.201.20
AlabamaSEC1.711.7159.3859.380.320.32
Missouri St.MVC1.691.6951.6151.610.050.05
Southern UtahBSky1.691.6913.3313.33-1.24-1.24
BYUWCC1.691.6968.7568.750.630.63
Indiana St.MVC1.691.6934.4834.48-0.52-0.52
Coppin St.MEAC1.661.6624.1424.14-0.86-0.86
Santa ClaraWCC1.661.6648.3948.39-0.05-0.05
OregonP121.641.6484.3884.381.131.13
Rhode IslandA101.611.6175.0075.000.810.81
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.280.2853.3353.330.020.02
ToledoMAC0.260.2650.0050.000.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.210.2138.7138.71-0.05-0.05
DePaulBE0.200.2028.1228.12-0.09-0.09
Central MichiganMAC0.190.1946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.180.1848.3948.39-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.180.1861.2961.290.040.04
GeorgiaSEC0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
BradleyMVC0.160.1637.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.160.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
PacificWCC0.150.1531.2531.25-0.06-0.06
Saint LouisA100.150.1536.3636.36-0.04-0.04
OhioMAC0.150.1563.3363.330.040.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.150.1548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.150.1577.7877.780.080.08
Grand CanyonWAC0.130.1368.9768.970.050.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.130.1367.8667.860.050.05
Kent St.MAC0.130.1361.7661.760.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Northern IowaMVC0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.130.1387.8887.880.100.10
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.130.1344.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.130.1325.8125.81-0.06-0.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
Michigan St.B100.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
AkronMAC0.130.1375.7675.760.070.07
East Tennessee St.SC0.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
GonzagaWCC0.120.1296.9796.970.120.12
Saint Mary'sWCC0.120.1287.5087.500.090.09
Montana St.BSky0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.120.1246.4346.43-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
North DakotaBSky0.110.1167.8667.860.040.04
DrakeMVC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1081.2581.250.070.07
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
DuquesneA100.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
Coastal CarolinaSB0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
PortlandWCC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.100.1023.0823.08-0.05-0.05
USCP120.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0883.3383.330.060.06
WisconsinB100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
SeattleWAC0.080.0837.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
UC DavisBW0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
StanfordP120.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
ArizonaP120.070.0788.2488.240.060.06
CaliforniaP120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
ColoradoP120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
DavidsonA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
DaytonA100.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
Arizona St.P120.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
LSUSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
UCLAP120.070.0787.8887.880.050.05
ArkansasSEC0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
FloridaSEC0.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
MemphisAmer0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Kansas St.B120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Fort WayneSum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
IdahoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
UNLVMWC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Washington St.P120.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
MississippiSEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
TroySB0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
ButlerBE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
BrownIvy0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.020.0277.1477.140.010.01
FordhamA100.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
George MasonA100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
George WashingtonA100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
MaristMAAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.020.0278.5778.570.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
RichmondA100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
StetsonASun0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
KansasB120.020.0287.5087.500.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00