live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Towson

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:95.0
Current RPI:95
Expected SOS:197
Current SOS:197
Current Record:21-10
Expected Record:21-10
Current Conf Record:14-4
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-2
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:141
Expected OOC SOS:168



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1095.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Towson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Navy (321.0)PatH72-45W100%0.0
11-12Morgan St. (225.0)MEACH95-75W100%0.0
11-14Temple (175.0)AmerH75-69W100%0.0
11-17Villanova (5.0)BEA78-44L0%0.0
11-22Kansas (3.0)B12A88-58L0%0.0
11-26UMBC (327.0)AEH75-60W100%0.0
11-29The Citadel (345.0)SCH84-59W100%0.0
12-6Stephen F. Austin (52.0)SlndA79-69L0%0.0
12-7Sam Houston St. (112.0)SlndN67-55L0%0.0
12-18Oregon St. (100.0)P12A76-67L0%0.0
12-21North Dakota St. (35.0)SumA90-82L0%0.0
12-30New Hampshire (340.0)AEH72-64W100%0.0
1-4Coppin St. (261.0)MEACA79-81W100%0.0
1-11UNC Wilmington (281.0)CAAH60-53W100%0.0
1-14Drexel (132.0)CAAA68-80W100%0.0
1-19College of Charleston (242.0)CAAA57-72W100%0.0
1-22Northeastern (222.0)CAAH54-57L0%0.0
1-25Delaware (65.0)CAAA83-76L0%0.0
1-27Hofstra (277.0)CAAH76-58W100%0.0
2-1Drexel (132.0)CAAH75-73W100%0.0
2-4James Madison (233.0)CAAH80-71W100%0.0
2-8College of Charleston (242.0)CAAH68-61W100%0.0
2-10UNC Wilmington (281.0)CAAA66-53L0%0.0
2-15William & Mary (119.0)CAAA70-85W100%0.0
2-17Delaware (65.0)CAAH78-63W100%0.0
2-20Northeastern (222.0)CAAA70-79W100%0.0
2-22Hofstra (277.0)CAAA77-83W100%0.0
2-26James Madison (233.0)CAAA66-69W100%0.0
3-1William & Mary (119.0)CAAH70-68W100%0.0
3-8James Madison (233.0)CAAN80-71W100%0.0
3-9William & Mary (119.0)CAAN71-75L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Towson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Towson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Towson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TowsonCAA26.4326.4370.9970.9911.1011.10
William & MaryCAA5.715.7164.2964.291.631.63
James MadisonCAA5.665.6639.2939.29-1.21-1.21
DelawareCAA4.294.2975.0075.002.142.14
HofstraCAA4.154.1532.2632.26-1.47-1.47
College of CharlestonCAA4.154.1544.8344.83-0.43-0.43
NortheasternCAA4.154.1533.3333.33-1.38-1.38
UNC WilmingtonCAA4.124.1221.4321.43-2.35-2.35
DrexelCAA4.094.0957.1457.140.580.58
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.831.8392.8692.861.571.57
Sam Houston St.Slnd1.771.7767.8667.860.630.63
UMBCAE1.751.7528.5728.57-0.75-0.75
Coppin St.MEAC1.741.7436.6736.67-0.47-0.47
VillanovaBE1.711.7187.1087.101.271.27
NavyPat1.701.7028.5728.57-0.73-0.73
The CitadelSC1.691.6914.2914.29-1.21-1.21
Morgan St.MEAC1.691.6950.0050.000.000.00
New HampshireAE1.671.6717.8617.86-1.07-1.07
North Dakota St.Sum1.661.6677.7877.780.920.92
Oregon St.P121.641.6450.0050.000.000.00
KansasB121.641.6471.8871.880.720.72
TempleAmer1.641.6430.0030.00-0.66-0.66
HamptonMEAC0.330.3360.0060.000.070.07
RichmondA100.330.3357.5857.580.050.05
High PointBSth0.210.2150.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.210.2119.3519.35-0.13-0.13
LibertyBSth0.210.2127.5927.59-0.09-0.09
Old DominionCUSA0.180.1848.4848.48-0.01-0.01
RutgersAmer0.180.1834.3834.38-0.06-0.06
Stony BrookAE0.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
WoffordSC0.160.1658.6258.620.030.03
DavidsonSC0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
HartfordAE0.160.1651.5251.520.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.160.1617.8617.86-0.10-0.10
LouisvilleAmer0.150.1585.2985.290.110.11
Delaware St.MEAC0.150.1525.0025.00-0.08-0.08
Charleston SouthernBSth0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
AlbanyAE0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.140.1423.3323.33-0.07-0.07
Northwestern St.Slnd0.140.1448.1548.15-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
Western IllinoisSum0.140.1425.9325.93-0.07-0.07
UNC GreensboroSC0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
BryantNEC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
ArmyPat0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Iowa St.B120.130.1378.7978.790.070.07
West VirginiaB120.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
LamarSlnd0.110.1110.7110.71-0.09-0.09
MaineAE0.110.1117.8617.86-0.07-0.07
Oral RobertsSlnd0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.110.1180.6580.650.070.07
FurmanSC0.110.1125.9325.93-0.05-0.05
Boston UniversityPat0.110.1170.5970.590.040.04
VirginiaACC0.110.1182.3582.350.070.07
VMIBSth0.110.1155.5655.560.010.01
ArizonaP120.110.1188.2488.240.080.08
UCLAP120.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
UNC AshevilleBSth0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
OregonP120.100.1071.8871.880.050.05
TexasB120.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
ManhattanMAAC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Ohio St.B100.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
TulaneCUSA0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
DenverSum0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
IPFWSum0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
AmericanPat0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0824.0024.00-0.04-0.04
ColgatePat0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
LehighPat0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0830.7730.77-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
ElonSC0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
LafayettePat0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
ToledoMAC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
MarquetteBE0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
DetroitHorz0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0883.8783.870.050.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
UCFAmer0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.080.08100.00100.000.080.08
WinthropBSth0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
La SalleA100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
USCP120.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
NJITind0.080.0836.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0816.1316.13-0.05-0.05
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
DePaulBE0.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
IUPUISum0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Appalachian St.SC0.060.0619.2319.23-0.03-0.03
BucknellPat0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
DuquesneA100.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0614.8114.81-0.04-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0564.2964.290.020.02
CampbellBSth0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Western KentuckySB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
AkronMAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
MarylandACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Washington St.P120.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
ButlerBE0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0586.2186.210.040.04
ProvidenceBE0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
XavierBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
BelmontOVC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
BrownIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
George MasonA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
HawaiiBW0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
DukeACC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0294.1294.120.020.02
IonaMAAC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0234.6234.62-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01