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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Towson

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:150.0
Current RPI:150
Expected SOS:220
Current SOS:220
Current Record:18-12
Expected Record:18-12
Current Conf Record:11-8
Expected Conf Record:11-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-2
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:240
Expected OOC SOS:350



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-12150.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Towson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14La Salle (232.0)A10A78-76L0%0.0
11-16Morgan St. (327.0)MEACH69-61W100%0.0
11-19Oklahoma St. (170.0)B12N52-69L0%0.0
11-20Mississippi (96.0)SECN60-76L0%0.0
11-22Bradley (306.0)MVCN60-62W100%0.0
11-28Coppin St. (326.0)MEACA77-81W100%0.0
12-2George Mason (201.0)A10H75-54W100%0.0
12-5Sacred Heart (258.0)NECH83-61W100%0.0
12-8Loyola MD (255.0)PatA54-65W100%0.0
12-18Fairleigh Dickinson (205.0)NECA69-68L0%0.0
12-23UMBC (335.0)AEH91-65W100%0.0
12-31William & Mary (67.0)CAAA69-76W100%0.0
1-2Hofstra (54.0)CAAH58-90L0%0.0
1-7UNC Wilmington (45.0)CAAH76-60W100%0.0
1-9James Madison (103.0)CAAA73-59L0%0.0
1-14Delaware (274.0)CAAA77-79W100%0.0
1-16Drexel (247.0)CAAH69-50W100%0.0
1-21College of Charleston (135.0)CAAH37-40L0%0.0
1-23Northeastern (109.0)CAAA72-79W100%0.0
1-28Drexel (247.0)CAAA70-77W100%0.0
1-30Delaware (274.0)CAAH101-97W100%0.0
2-4College of Charleston (135.0)CAAA65-47L0%0.0
2-6Elon (160.0)CAAA77-81W100%0.0
2-11Northeastern (109.0)CAAH44-47L0%0.0
2-13William & Mary (67.0)CAAH99-82W100%0.0
2-18Hofstra (54.0)CAAA84-82L0%0.0
2-20Elon (160.0)CAAH67-56W100%0.0
2-25James Madison (103.0)CAAH69-67W100%0.0
2-27UNC Wilmington (45.0)CAAA74-68L0%0.0
3-5Northeastern (109.0)CAAN60-71L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Towson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Towson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Towson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TowsonCAA26.4126.4160.8760.875.745.74
NortheasternCAA5.945.9451.7251.720.200.20
HofstraCAA4.494.4970.0070.001.801.80
UNC WilmingtonCAA4.454.4578.5778.572.542.54
DrexelCAA4.404.4021.4321.43-2.51-2.51
College of CharlestonCAA4.374.3750.0050.000.000.00
DelawareCAA4.374.3725.0025.00-2.18-2.18
William & MaryCAA4.364.3666.6766.671.451.45
James MadisonCAA4.354.3565.5265.521.351.35
ElonCAA4.324.3250.0050.000.000.00
La SalleA101.801.8024.1424.14-0.93-0.93
George MasonA101.801.8035.4835.48-0.52-0.52
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.781.7853.3353.330.120.12
Sacred HeartNEC1.771.7741.3841.38-0.31-0.31
BradleyMVC1.751.7513.3313.33-1.28-1.28
Morgan St.MEAC1.721.7227.5927.59-0.77-0.77
Coppin St.MEAC1.721.7225.0025.00-0.86-0.86
MississippiSEC1.721.7261.2961.290.390.39
UMBCAE1.691.6922.5822.58-0.93-0.93
Loyola MDPat1.691.6931.0331.03-0.64-0.64
Oklahoma St.B121.691.6935.4835.48-0.49-0.49
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.300.3042.4242.42-0.05-0.05
Stony BrookAE0.240.2480.0080.000.140.14
WagnerNEC0.190.1967.7467.740.070.07
Western MichiganMAC0.190.1936.6736.67-0.05-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.170.1766.6766.670.060.06
HowardMEAC0.170.1733.3333.33-0.06-0.06
East CarolinaAmer0.160.1637.5037.50-0.04-0.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.160.1651.6151.610.010.01
DavidsonA100.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
Miami FLACC0.160.1678.1278.120.090.09
Delaware St.MEAC0.140.1416.6716.67-0.09-0.09
High PointBSth0.140.1464.2964.290.040.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
DaytonA100.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
CampbellBSth0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
VirginiaACC0.140.1478.7978.790.080.08
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
LafayettePat0.140.1420.0020.00-0.08-0.08
FordhamA100.140.1455.1755.170.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.140.1479.4179.410.080.08
NavyPat0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.140.1448.4848.48-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.130.1373.3373.330.060.06
Boston UniversityPat0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
RichmondA100.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Kansas St.B120.130.1351.5251.520.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
VermontAE0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
TempleAmer0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
VillanovaBE0.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
PennIvy0.110.1137.0437.04-0.03-0.03
BryantNEC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Central ConnecticutNEC0.110.1113.7913.79-0.08-0.08
FIUCUSA0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.1131.2531.25-0.04-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
Saint LouisA100.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0962.8662.860.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
LSUSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
UMKCWAC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
HartfordAE0.080.0828.1228.12-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
SienaMAAC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
TCUB120.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
HarvardIvy0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
BucknellPat0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0657.6957.690.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
DukeACC0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
MaristMAAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0679.4179.410.030.03
NorthwesternB100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Penn St.B100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
RiderMAAC0.060.0639.3939.39-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.060.0624.2424.24-0.03-0.03
SyracuseACC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
The CitadelSC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Seton HallBE0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
MaineAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
OklahomaB120.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.020.02
ArizonaP120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
MercerSC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0320.8320.83-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
TroySB0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01