live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Dec 16, 2014.


Towson

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:194.4
Current RPI:165
Expected SOS:258
Current SOS:323
Current Record:6-3
Expected Record:15-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-2
Current OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:165
Expected OOC SOS:340



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-765.30.03%
22-883.30.07%
21-998.10.50%
20-10113.11.68%
19-11129.44.36%
18-12147.68.59%
17-13165.115.04%
16-14183.618.40%
15-15202.118.73%
14-16221.015.01%
13-17239.39.84%
12-18256.05.11%
11-19273.02.04%
10-20285.70.51%
9-21300.60.07%
8-22308.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Towson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Alabama (73.7)SECA82-54L0%0.0
11-17Morgan St. (295.3)MEACA46-51W100%0.0
11-21Central Connecticut (310.2)NECN49-58W100%0.0
11-22Bethune Cookman (332.5)MEACN63-42W100%0.0
11-23Monmouth (174.6)MAACA75-79W100%0.0
11-29UMBC (335.4)AEA66-77W100%0.0
12-3Coppin St. (335.6)MEACH84-76W100%0.0
12-7Georgetown (44.9)BEA78-46L0%0.0
12-10Temple (119.2)AmerA76-64L0%0.0
12-20La Salle (124.5)A10H0-047%-0.9
12-22Navy (323.1)PatA0-067%5.2
12-29Fairleigh Dickinson (259.1)NECH0-075%7.8
1-3James Madison (158.0)CAAA0-030%-6.0
1-5Elon (185.8)CAAH0-057%2.0
1-8Drexel (224.2)CAAH0-063%4.1
1-10Northeastern (118.3)CAAH0-047%-0.8
1-14Delaware (332.6)CAAA0-075%8.0
1-17William & Mary (105.9)CAAH0-045%-1.5
1-22Elon (185.8)CAAA0-028%-7.0
1-24UNC Wilmington (95.7)CAAA0-017%-11.1
1-29College of Charleston (176.7)CAAH0-058%2.4
1-31Hofstra (70.8)CAAA0-08%-16.4
2-4Northeastern (118.3)CAAA0-020%-9.8
2-7James Madison (158.0)CAAH0-060%2.9
2-11Drexel (224.2)CAAA0-034%-4.9
2-15College of Charleston (176.7)CAAA0-029%-6.5
2-18Hofstra (70.8)CAAH0-027%-7.4
2-21UNC Wilmington (95.7)CAAH0-043%-2.1
2-25William & Mary (105.9)CAAA0-019%-10.5
2-28Delaware (332.6)CAAH0-092%16.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Towson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Towson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Towson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TowsonCAA27.6526.3679.0754.3916.082.31
HofstraCAA0.314.3377.7877.200.172.36
DelawareCAA0.004.300.007.61-0.00-3.64
NortheasternCAA0.004.2875.0060.900.000.93
ElonCAA0.284.2737.5048.10-0.07-0.16
DrexelCAA0.004.2625.0036.22-0.00-1.17
College of CharlestonCAA0.004.2550.0044.790.00-0.44
James MadisonCAA0.004.2566.6753.150.000.27
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.004.2440.0057.64-0.000.65
William & MaryCAA0.004.2357.1455.300.000.45
Central ConnecticutNEC6.421.8625.0031.98-3.21-0.67
Morgan St.MEAC5.561.8122.2238.71-3.09-0.41
La SalleA100.281.8150.0049.810.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC5.561.800.0015.07-5.56-1.26
Bethune CookmanMEAC6.171.7822.2235.08-3.43-0.53
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.001.7828.5741.66-0.00-0.30
TempleAmer5.561.7555.5652.510.620.09
MonmouthMAAC6.141.7250.0058.510.000.29
NavyPat0.001.7220.0020.73-0.00-1.01
UMBCAE5.861.6911.1122.11-4.56-0.94
AlabamaSEC5.561.6762.5054.031.390.13
GeorgetownBE5.561.6762.5058.301.390.28
Norfolk St.MEAC0.590.2550.0056.650.000.03
HowardMEAC0.280.2133.3343.17-0.09-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.2033.3340.42-0.00-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.310.2033.3343.11-0.10-0.03
RichmondA100.000.2050.0056.190.000.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.310.2025.0047.42-0.15-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.310.1937.5037.27-0.08-0.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.280.1925.0040.22-0.14-0.04
WagnerNEC0.000.1914.2933.61-0.00-0.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.280.1741.6743.24-0.05-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.280.1755.5639.850.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.280.1722.2236.43-0.15-0.05
VillanovaBE0.280.17100.0082.270.280.11
CampbellBSth0.000.1714.2944.11-0.00-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1750.0057.760.000.03
ConnecticutAmer0.310.1657.1456.000.040.02
LibertyBSth0.280.1428.5732.96-0.12-0.05
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1442.8655.87-0.000.02
DavidsonA100.000.1487.5076.910.000.08
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1455.5665.940.000.04
ColgatePat0.000.1420.0042.53-0.00-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1425.0037.01-0.00-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.310.1450.0048.280.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.310.1344.4440.58-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1287.5080.890.000.07
FloridaSEC0.310.1260.0064.780.060.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.1222.2238.58-0.00-0.03
High PointBSth0.000.1262.5055.430.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.120.0013.10-0.00-0.08
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.120.0022.93-0.00-0.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.1244.4469.77-0.000.05
ArmyPat0.000.1177.7869.100.000.04
HamptonMEAC0.590.1144.4449.79-0.07-0.00
North FloridaASun0.280.1150.0061.230.000.03
BryantNEC0.000.1128.5746.92-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.310.1166.6772.270.100.05
Miami FLACC0.000.1190.0075.840.000.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1137.5037.71-0.00-0.03
AmericanPat0.280.1160.0065.090.060.03
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1133.3342.09-0.00-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.1133.3332.44-0.00-0.04
MaristMAAC0.310.1110.0018.60-0.25-0.07
Stony BrookAE0.000.1137.5054.91-0.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.1116.6729.59-0.00-0.05
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1136.3647.60-0.00-0.01
PennIvy0.280.1137.5032.38-0.07-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1177.7866.040.000.04
RiderMAAC0.310.1145.4551.71-0.030.00
MassachusettsA100.000.1160.0055.070.000.01
MinnesotaB100.280.0977.7864.850.150.03
Notre DameACC0.310.0990.9171.250.250.04
VMISC0.000.0933.3338.85-0.00-0.02
Penn St.B100.280.0990.9154.340.230.01
Southern MissCUSA0.310.0950.0032.740.00-0.03
LafayettePat0.000.0975.0069.750.000.03
St. John'sBE0.000.0987.5064.670.000.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0918.1827.73-0.00-0.04
BinghamtonAE0.000.090.0011.93-0.00-0.07
ButlerBE0.310.0980.0072.430.190.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0930.0028.28-0.00-0.04
LehighPat0.000.0942.8651.80-0.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.280.0933.3326.81-0.09-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.000.0972.7352.480.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0955.5647.220.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0944.4431.46-0.00-0.03
XavierBE0.310.0980.0071.140.190.04
DukeACC0.280.08100.0087.520.280.06
HartfordAE0.310.0850.0050.920.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0875.0064.650.000.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0862.5064.640.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0833.3347.31-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.280.080.0013.85-0.28-0.06
LongwoodBSth0.280.0822.2227.64-0.15-0.04
RadfordBSth0.310.0850.0054.960.000.01
UCFAmer0.280.0850.0030.140.00-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0875.0060.540.000.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0842.8633.13-0.00-0.03
LSUSEC0.000.0877.7861.940.000.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0871.4356.890.000.01
FordhamA100.310.0828.5727.72-0.13-0.04
George MasonA100.000.0825.0025.93-0.00-0.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0837.5046.01-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.310.0866.6770.530.100.03
VirginiaACC0.000.08100.0086.080.000.06
West VirginiaB120.310.0890.0067.550.250.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.0670.0071.650.000.03
RiceCUSA0.000.0616.6725.01-0.00-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0637.5031.71-0.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.0675.0077.280.000.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.0675.0069.770.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.0666.6757.220.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0655.5648.540.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0085.390.000.04
OhioMAC0.000.0650.0037.020.00-0.02
USCP120.000.0660.0037.100.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.280.0660.0056.480.060.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0633.3348.50-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.000.0640.0036.16-0.00-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0611.1129.23-0.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.0672.7351.370.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0650.0051.980.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0657.1452.850.000.00
MaineAE0.000.0611.1121.00-0.00-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.000.0622.2227.10-0.00-0.03
New HampshireAE0.000.0657.1464.630.000.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0666.6744.720.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0688.8964.060.000.02
StanfordP120.000.0671.4361.160.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0655.5654.360.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0650.0060.040.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.0666.6739.030.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0660.0035.390.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.590.0660.0053.940.120.00
George WashingtonA100.280.0666.6766.860.090.02
KansasB120.310.0688.8969.900.240.02
NJITind0.000.0636.3641.92-0.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0637.5032.05-0.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0094.460.000.05
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0662.5064.900.000.02
HoustonAmer0.280.0583.3358.570.190.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0550.0061.890.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0575.0065.380.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0577.7869.570.000.02
DetroitHorz0.000.0550.0053.430.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0544.4433.13-0.00-0.02
FurmanSC0.000.0525.0029.22-0.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0542.8656.16-0.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0585.7173.700.000.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0510.0040.34-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.620.0590.9167.920.510.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0514.2932.16-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0580.0063.530.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0588.8984.020.000.04
Rhode IslandA100.000.0562.5072.760.000.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0550.0041.450.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0537.5051.38-0.000.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0587.5054.670.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0555.5657.230.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0580.0069.650.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0562.5054.950.000.01
DenverSum0.310.0344.4455.06-0.030.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0342.8655.73-0.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0383.3366.520.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0375.0070.380.000.01
IllinoisB100.310.0370.0066.410.120.01
MichiganB100.000.0355.5642.720.00-0.00
OregonP120.310.0362.5057.800.080.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0327.2737.98-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.280.0340.0044.19-0.06-0.00
IndianaB100.000.0380.0057.560.000.00
IowaB100.280.0372.7362.660.130.01
MercerSC0.000.0337.5041.09-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0370.0070.960.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.0311.1129.36-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.280.0371.4367.660.120.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.310.0328.5726.77-0.13-0.01
WisconsinB100.310.0390.9188.300.250.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0377.7871.340.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0322.2230.22-0.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0362.5059.380.000.01
Iowa St.B120.310.0388.8964.670.240.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0366.6751.450.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0357.1447.630.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.280.0390.0079.360.220.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0357.1445.530.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.310.0350.0050.190.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.280.0337.5046.90-0.07-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.0342.8644.92-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.000.0372.7357.470.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.280.0355.5638.250.03-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.310.0322.2245.74-0.17-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.310.0387.5085.930.230.02
BrownIvy0.000.0340.0034.21-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.0333.3338.84-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.280.0370.0066.510.110.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0350.0059.030.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0355.5631.620.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.280.0371.4350.790.120.00
VCUA100.000.0370.0071.110.000.01