Towson

Conference:	CAA
Expected RPI:	311.0
Current RPI:	311
Expected SOS:	95
Current SOS:	95
Current Record:	1-31
Expected Record:	1-31
Current Conf Record:	1-18
Expected Conf Record:	1-18
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	1-8
Current OOC Record:	0-13
Expected OOC Record:	0-13
Expected OOC RPI:	305
Expected OOC SOS:	63

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
1-31	311.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Towson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Kansas (6.0)	B12	A	100-54	L	0%
11-14	Michigan (14.0)	B10	A	64-47	L	0%
11-19	Belmont (58.0)	ASun	N	87-41	L	0%
11-20	NC Greensboro (231.0)	SC	N	60-72	L	0%
11-26	Oregon St. (135.0)	P12	H	46-66	L	0%
11-30	Massachusetts (76.0)	A10	A	86-56	L	0%
12-3	George Mason (82.0)	CAA	H	53-65	L	0%
12-7	La Salle (90.0)	A10	H	51-89	L	0%
12-10	MD Baltimore County (339.0)	AE	H	58-62	L	0%
12-14	Coppin St. (276.0)	MEAC	A	71-57	L	0%
12-20	Manhattan (149.0)	MAAC	H	62-81	L	0%
12-23	Vermont (134.0)	AE	H	49-65	L	0%
12-30	Virginia (53.0)	ACC	A	57-50	L	0%
1-2	Northeastern (172.0)	CAA	H	48-57	L	0%
1-4	Drexel (64.0)	CAA	A	60-27	L	0%
1-7	Old Dominion (103.0)	CAA	A	75-38	L	0%
1-11	William & Mary (299.0)	CAA	H	49-66	L	0%
1-14	Georgia St. (141.0)	CAA	A	57-42	L	0%
1-18	Old Dominion (103.0)	CAA	H	41-71	L	0%
1-21	George Mason (82.0)	CAA	A	72-60	L	0%
1-23	Delaware (153.0)	CAA	A	62-43	L	0%
1-25	Virginia Commonwealth (38.0)	CAA	H	42-67	L	0%
1-28	NC Wilmington (214.0)	CAA	H	66-61	W	100%
2-1	Hofstra (263.0)	CAA	A	74-49	L	0%
2-4	Drexel (64.0)	CAA	H	57-65	L	0%
2-8	Virginia Commonwealth (38.0)	CAA	A	66-43	L	0%
2-11	James Madison (261.0)	CAA	H	56-58	L	0%
2-14	Northeastern (172.0)	CAA	A	70-51	L	0%
2-18	New Hampshire (296.0)	AE	A	72-58	L	0%
2-22	Delaware (153.0)	CAA	H	69-76	L	0%
2-25	James Madison (261.0)	CAA	A	65-59	L	0%
3-2	Delaware (153.0)	CAA	N	72-65	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Towson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Towson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Towson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Towson	CAA	26.23	26.23	1.95	1.95	-25.20	-25.20
Delaware	CAA	5.36	5.36	53.57	53.57	0.38	0.38
Drexel	CAA	3.93	3.93	80.65	80.65	2.41	2.41
Old Dominion	CAA	3.93	3.93	58.06	58.06	0.63	0.63
George Mason	CAA	3.93	3.93	70.97	70.97	1.65	1.65
Northeastern	CAA	3.92	3.92	41.38	41.38	-0.68	-0.68
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	3.91	3.91	81.25	81.25	2.44	2.44
James Madison	CAA	3.80	3.80	33.33	33.33	-1.27	-1.27
Hofstra	CAA	2.41	2.41	29.03	29.03	-1.01	-1.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	2.41	2.41	33.33	33.33	-0.80	-0.80
Georgia St.	CAA	2.39	2.39	64.52	64.52	0.69	0.69
William & Mary	CAA	2.34	2.34	13.33	13.33	-1.72	-1.72
La Salle	A10	1.78	1.78	62.50	62.50	0.45	0.45
Vermont	AE	1.77	1.77	66.67	66.67	0.59	0.59
Virginia	ACC	1.68	1.68	70.00	70.00	0.67	0.67
MD Baltimore County	AE	1.66	1.66	10.34	10.34	-1.32	-1.32
New Hampshire	AE	1.66	1.66	40.74	40.74	-0.31	-0.31
Massachusetts	A10	1.66	1.66	65.62	65.62	0.52	0.52
Manhattan	MAAC	1.66	1.66	61.29	61.29	0.37	0.37
NC Greensboro	SC	1.61	1.61	36.67	36.67	-0.43	-0.43
Michigan	B10	1.59	1.59	70.97	70.97	0.67	0.67
Oregon St.	P12	1.59	1.59	54.84	54.84	0.15	0.15
Belmont	ASun	1.56	1.56	78.12	78.12	0.88	0.88
Coppin St.	MEAC	1.56	1.56	36.00	36.00	-0.44	-0.44
Kansas	B12	1.56	1.56	81.25	81.25	0.98	0.98
Boston University	AE	0.33	0.33	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.28	0.28	6.45	6.45	-0.24	-0.24
Howard	MEAC	0.26	0.26	30.00	30.00	-0.10	-0.10
Albany	AE	0.23	0.23	57.58	57.58	0.03	0.03
Stony Brook	AE	0.23	0.23	70.00	70.00	0.09	0.09
Rhode Island	A10	0.22	0.22	22.58	22.58	-0.12	-0.12
Richmond	A10	0.21	0.21	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.21	0.21	36.36	36.36	-0.06	-0.06
Hartford	AE	0.20	0.20	29.03	29.03	-0.08	-0.08
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.20	0.20	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Rider	MAAC	0.19	0.19	40.62	40.62	-0.04	-0.04
Maine	AE	0.18	0.18	39.29	39.29	-0.04	-0.04
Fairfield	MAAC	0.17	0.17	57.58	57.58	0.03	0.03
Temple	A10	0.17	0.17	77.42	77.42	0.09	0.09
George Washington	A10	0.17	0.17	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.15	0.15	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.15	0.15	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	BE	0.14	0.14	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.13	0.13	75.00	75.00	0.07	0.07
Canisius	MAAC	0.12	0.12	16.67	16.67	-0.08	-0.08
Radford	BSth	0.12	0.12	13.33	13.33	-0.09	-0.09
Bradley	MVC	0.12	0.12	21.88	21.88	-0.07	-0.07
Duke	ACC	0.12	0.12	81.82	81.82	0.08	0.08
College of Charleston	SC	0.12	0.12	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Missouri	B12	0.12	0.12	88.24	88.24	0.09	0.09
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.12	0.12	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.12	0.12	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Duquesne	A10	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.10	0.10	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
Liberty	BSth	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.10	0.10	23.33	23.33	-0.05	-0.05
Florida St.	ACC	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Lafayette	Pat	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Villanova	BE	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.10	0.10	14.29	14.29	-0.07	-0.07
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	SC	0.10	0.10	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
Princeton	Ivy	0.10	0.10	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Washington	P12	0.10	0.10	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.10	0.10	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
East Carolina	CUSA	0.10	0.10	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.10	0.10	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Long Island	NEC	0.09	0.09	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
St. Louis	A10	0.09	0.09	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.09	0.09	20.69	20.69	-0.05	-0.05
Western Kentucky	SB	0.09	0.09	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.09	0.09	20.69	20.69	-0.05	-0.05
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	10.34	10.34	-0.06	-0.06
Illinois	B10	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Purdue	B10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Appalachian St.	SC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.08	0.08	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.07	0.07	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Samford	SC	0.07	0.07	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Elon	SC	0.07	0.07	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Oregon	P12	0.07	0.07	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.07	0.07	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.07	0.07	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Winthrop	BSth	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
UCLA	P12	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.07	0.07	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.07	0.07	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Florida International	SB	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Fordham	A10	0.07	0.07	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.07	0.07	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Texas	B12	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Bucknell	Pat	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.07	0.07	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.07	0.07	94.12	94.12	0.06	0.06
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M	B12	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
California	P12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.03	-0.03
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.05	18.75	18.75	-0.03	-0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.04	-0.04
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Monmouth	NEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
San Jose St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Longwood	ind	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Seattle	ind	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Texas Christian	MWC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.02	0.02	19.23	19.23	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.02	0.02	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.02	0.02	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Fresno St.	WAC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.02	0.02	55.17	55.17	0.00	0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.02	0.02	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Montana	BSky	0.02	0.02	79.31	79.31	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Oakland	Sum	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Portland	WCC	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.02	0.02	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.01	0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.02	0.02	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Army	Pat	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.02	0.02	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
North Dakota	GWC	0.02	0.02	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Pittsburgh	BE	0.02	0.02	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.02	0.02	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.02	0.02	86.21	86.21	0.02	0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.02	0.02	65.38	65.38	0.01	0.01