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Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


Towson

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:89.7
Current RPI:106
Expected SOS:171
Current SOS:173
Current Record:12-7
Expected Record:19-10
Current Conf Record:4-4
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-2
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:42
Expected OOC SOS:174



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-753.72.71%
21-863.113.48%
20-974.825.32%
19-1089.527.42%
18-11107.019.82%
17-12126.37.97%
16-13146.52.64%
15-14167.50.52%
14-15181.90.11%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Towson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Old Dominion (74.5)CUSAA57-54L0%0.0
11-17Loyola MD (314.9)PatA72-95W100%0.0
11-20Florida Atlantic (239.7)CUSAN52-76W100%0.0
11-21Penn (173.5)IvyN79-71W100%0.0
11-22Georgia Southern (118.0)SBN70-67W100%0.0
12-1La Salle (181.1)A10N60-67W100%0.0
12-2Manhattan (203.8)MAACN56-55W100%0.0
12-6Morgan St. (310.3)MEACH82-78W100%0.0
12-9UMBC (175.7)AEH78-65W100%0.0
12-20Oakland (138.7)HorzA97-86L0%0.0
12-22Pittsburgh (188.1)ACCA63-59L0%0.0
12-30College of Charleston (108.4)CAAA73-62L0%0.0
1-2Elon (143.6)CAAA75-72L0%0.0
1-5UNC Wilmington (262.5)CAAH89-71W100%0.0
1-7College of Charleston (108.4)CAAH73-62W100%0.0
1-11Hofstra (105.6)CAAH73-76L0%0.0
1-13William & Mary (93.5)CAAA73-99W100%0.0
1-18Drexel (271.3)CAAH90-68W100%0.0
1-20UNC Wilmington (262.5)CAAA73-71L0%0.0
1-25William & Mary (93.5)CAAH0-077%8.1
1-27Elon (143.6)CAAH0-080%9.3
2-1Delaware (225.4)CAAA0-072%6.6
2-3James Madison (278.4)CAAA0-071%6.3
2-8Drexel (271.3)CAAA0-076%7.8
2-10Northeastern (80.1)CAAH0-067%4.8
2-15Delaware (225.4)CAAH0-088%13.0
2-17James Madison (278.4)CAAH0-087%12.7
2-22Northeastern (80.1)CAAA0-044%-1.6
2-24Hofstra (105.6)CAAA0-050%0.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Towson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Towson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Towson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TowsonCAA26.6526.4168.3570.049.7810.58
DrexelCAA3.284.4731.5832.33-1.21-1.58
James MadisonCAA0.434.4425.0028.79-0.21-1.88
HofstraCAA3.064.4455.5658.370.340.74
William & MaryCAA2.914.4368.7563.881.091.23
DelawareCAA0.654.4147.3744.72-0.03-0.47
ElonCAA3.144.4150.0050.430.000.04
NortheasternCAA0.514.4163.1664.610.131.29
College of CharlestonCAA5.614.4068.7566.842.111.48
UNC WilmingtonCAA5.544.4018.7525.56-3.47-2.15
Old DominionCUSA2.791.9177.7875.971.550.99
ManhattanMAAC2.771.8252.6352.610.150.09
La SalleA102.771.8142.1144.11-0.44-0.21
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.701.7840.0039.12-0.54-0.39
Loyola MDPat2.701.7823.5329.73-1.43-0.72
Morgan St.MEAC2.701.7535.2941.90-0.79-0.28
PennIvy2.701.7568.7564.931.010.52
Georgia SouthernSB2.631.7270.5967.731.080.61
OaklandHorz2.631.7260.0063.990.530.48
PittsburghACC2.631.7236.8428.57-0.69-0.74
UMBCAE2.631.7258.8257.600.460.26
CharlotteCUSA0.300.2423.5325.63-0.16-0.12
FIUCUSA0.220.2435.2935.54-0.06-0.07
Delaware St.MEAC0.290.210.008.42-0.29-0.18
George MasonA100.220.2145.0041.29-0.02-0.04
NavyPat0.290.2160.0055.160.060.02
Boston UniversityPat0.140.1850.0053.280.000.01
FurmanSC0.220.1866.6768.540.070.07
UNC GreensboroSC0.220.1868.7567.610.080.06
SienaMAAC0.280.1828.5729.93-0.12-0.07
CornellIvy0.080.1833.3333.23-0.03-0.06
RiderMAAC0.200.1765.0065.330.060.05
RichmondA100.140.1731.5834.35-0.05-0.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.220.1631.5836.43-0.08-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.150.1568.4263.610.050.04
High PointBSth0.290.1543.7549.22-0.04-0.00
ArmyPat0.220.1561.1160.440.050.03
BucknellPat0.140.1561.9068.000.030.05
LafayettePat0.220.1522.2227.46-0.12-0.07
HarvardIvy0.070.1537.5046.70-0.02-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.350.1538.8944.07-0.08-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.210.1527.7841.03-0.09-0.03
DaytonA100.220.1547.3750.94-0.010.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.140.1466.6773.220.050.07
TempleAmer0.280.1452.6351.740.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.150.1242.1139.93-0.02-0.03
Ohio St.B100.080.1281.8276.870.050.07
South FloridaAmer0.220.1235.0026.13-0.07-0.06
HowardMEAC0.220.1210.5326.29-0.18-0.06
Stony BrookAE0.070.1236.8445.19-0.02-0.01
VermontAE0.070.1275.0077.870.040.07
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.150.1229.4133.20-0.06-0.04
YaleIvy0.000.1241.1847.610.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.080.1241.1839.66-0.01-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.200.1230.0032.58-0.08-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.210.1283.3381.450.140.07
VillanovaBE0.210.1294.7490.310.190.09
RadfordBSth0.070.1257.8958.880.010.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.200.1242.1146.09-0.03-0.01
DukeACC0.200.1289.4785.240.160.08
MilwaukeeHorz0.130.1245.0047.06-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.1135.0031.82-0.02-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.080.1025.0043.18-0.04-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.150.099.5217.86-0.12-0.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.150.0926.3230.45-0.07-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.070.0944.4446.66-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.070.0911.1117.68-0.05-0.06
ColgatePat0.150.0950.0051.030.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.150.0933.3333.87-0.05-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.160.0927.7831.08-0.07-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.220.0927.7838.12-0.10-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.210.0942.1144.98-0.03-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.220.0970.0068.290.090.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.230.0941.1839.14-0.04-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.070.0921.4326.34-0.04-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0968.4270.820.030.04
DavidsonA100.150.0958.8261.440.030.02
LehighPat0.070.0938.8944.74-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.070.0965.0057.890.020.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.140.0916.6724.90-0.09-0.04
The CitadelSC0.070.0918.7518.37-0.05-0.06
CanisiusMAAC0.140.0961.9063.170.030.02
Indiana St.MVC0.140.0944.4446.03-0.02-0.01
UMKCWAC0.220.0921.0524.76-0.13-0.04
ClemsonACC0.070.0984.2173.180.050.04
Notre DameACC0.000.0963.1661.000.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.140.0950.0045.850.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0966.6768.750.000.03
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0931.5836.23-0.03-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.140.0958.8249.740.02-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0950.0051.640.000.00
MercerSC0.130.0944.4454.87-0.010.01
FordhamA100.130.0831.5829.03-0.05-0.04
Miami FLACC0.130.0877.7870.410.070.03
SyracuseACC0.130.0868.4261.280.050.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0650.0052.500.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0610.0019.62-0.06-0.04
TCUB120.080.0675.0067.830.040.02
UCFAmer0.080.0668.4260.830.030.01
AlbanyAE0.070.0671.4370.250.030.02
AmericanPat0.070.0625.0026.03-0.04-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.150.0623.5328.20-0.08-0.03
CampbellBSth0.150.0647.0647.41-0.01-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.150.0642.1132.46-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.070.0650.0045.930.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.150.0678.9574.200.080.03
LSUSEC0.150.0661.1153.190.030.00
MaineAE0.070.0610.5314.83-0.06-0.04
New HampshireAE0.070.0633.3340.10-0.02-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.150.0644.4450.31-0.020.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.150.0643.7549.11-0.02-0.00
ValparaisoMVC0.150.0647.3748.77-0.01-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.150.0638.8935.38-0.03-0.02
Wichita St.Amer0.150.0678.9577.380.080.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0652.6355.280.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.140.0615.0020.28-0.10-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0672.2274.730.040.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0617.6534.76-0.04-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0641.1838.470.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.080.0661.1164.150.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.080.0633.3334.10-0.03-0.02
George WashingtonA100.070.0645.0043.49-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.140.0680.0076.040.080.03
AuburnSEC0.070.0689.4776.990.050.03
BrownIvy0.000.0650.0045.130.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0672.2274.940.000.03
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0620.0032.24-0.05-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.070.0666.6765.550.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0644.4444.910.00-0.01
Little RockSB0.070.0622.2225.19-0.04-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.000.0616.6716.150.00-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.080.0652.9460.230.000.01
StanfordP120.000.0655.0050.330.000.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0657.8950.210.000.00
TroySB0.070.0638.8944.43-0.02-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0660.0062.010.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0645.0045.470.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.140.060.003.06-0.14-0.06
Florida St.ACC0.070.0673.6869.660.030.02
NorthwesternB100.140.0655.0050.370.010.00
ToledoMAC0.140.0666.6767.670.050.02
Wake ForestACC0.070.0642.1140.46-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.070.0655.0048.980.01-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0673.6871.600.000.02
HoustonAmer0.070.0678.9573.000.040.03
IonaMAAC0.000.0660.0064.130.000.02
MaristMAAC0.070.0621.0521.99-0.04-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0657.1453.040.000.00
NJITASun0.070.0638.8942.58-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0657.1460.410.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0656.2557.430.000.01
VCUA100.140.0660.0059.710.030.01
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0665.0054.600.020.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0620.0023.33-0.04-0.03
DetroitHorz0.060.0621.0525.99-0.04-0.03
DuquesneA100.130.0670.0058.090.050.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.130.0646.6747.00-0.01-0.00
Green BayHorz0.060.0625.0027.93-0.03-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0642.1145.98-0.01-0.00
IUPUIHorz0.000.0627.7829.820.00-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.070.0678.9569.820.040.02
MassachusettsA100.070.0650.0046.810.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.070.0647.3746.93-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.060.0668.4269.260.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0621.0523.52-0.04-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0317.6519.29-0.05-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0357.8966.270.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0370.0071.220.030.01
MinnesotaB100.080.0363.6457.610.020.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0355.5657.250.010.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0347.0654.68-0.000.00
Texas TechB120.080.0378.9571.750.050.01
ArizonaP120.070.0380.0078.940.040.02
MarylandB100.070.0366.6763.130.020.01
MemphisAmer0.070.0365.0058.540.020.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0350.0051.390.000.00
SMUAmer0.070.0370.0070.610.030.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0377.7879.160.040.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0383.3381.420.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0326.6729.120.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.070.0375.0067.910.030.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0333.3335.21-0.02-0.01
TulsaAmer0.070.0355.0053.330.010.00
Fort WayneSum0.060.0352.6351.680.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.070.0352.6343.040.00-0.00
KansasB120.060.0384.2179.760.040.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0328.5731.24-0.03-0.01
Michigan St.B100.060.0385.7183.760.040.02
MontanaBSky0.070.0370.5973.150.030.01
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0337.5045.24-0.02-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0376.1972.570.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0365.0056.350.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0368.4254.040.020.00
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0330.0032.54-0.03-0.01
Penn St.B100.070.0361.9055.820.020.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0320.0040.93-0.04-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0370.5969.630.030.01
VirginiaACC0.000.0394.7486.110.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.070.0370.0060.400.030.01
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0352.9452.250.000.00