Towson

Conference:	CAA
Expected RPI:	157.0
Current RPI:	157
Expected SOS:	213
Current SOS:	213
Current Record:	17-13
Expected Record:	17-13
Current Conf Record:	13-5
Expected Conf Record:	13-5
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-4
Current OOC Record:	4-8
Expected OOC Record:	4-8
Expected OOC RPI:	184
Expected OOC SOS:	141

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-13	157.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Towson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	College of Charleston (133.0)	SC	A	75-58	L	0%
11-16	Radford (316.0)	BSth	N	67-75	W	100%
11-17	Eastern Kentucky (70.0)	OVC	A	71-69	L	0%
11-18	Kennesaw St. (341.0)	ASun	N	69-63	W	100%
11-26	Loyola MD (99.0)	MAAC	A	65-53	L	0%
12-1	MD Baltimore County (298.0)	AE	A	66-62	L	0%
12-5	Vermont (134.0)	AE	A	64-68	W	100%
12-8	Georgetown (11.0)	BE	A	46-40	L	0%
12-12	Temple (42.0)	A10	A	72-61	L	0%
12-15	North Dakota St. (72.0)	Sum	H	48-65	L	0%
12-19	Coppin St. (313.0)	MEAC	H	61-64	L	0%
12-29	Oregon St. (181.0)	P12	A	66-67	W	100%
1-2	NC Wilmington (301.0)	CAA	A	74-79	W	100%
1-5	Drexel (206.0)	CAA	A	66-69	W	100%
1-9	William & Mary (271.0)	CAA	H	99-86	W	100%
1-12	Northeastern (159.0)	CAA	H	59-70	L	0%
1-16	Delaware (141.0)	CAA	A	66-69	W	100%
1-19	James Madison (182.0)	CAA	H	73-47	W	100%
1-21	Georgia St. (209.0)	CAA	H	69-71	L	0%
1-23	George Mason (162.0)	CAA	H	67-77	L	0%
1-26	William & Mary (271.0)	CAA	A	63-56	L	0%
1-30	Old Dominion (318.0)	CAA	A	66-68	W	100%
2-4	NC Wilmington (301.0)	CAA	H	81-68	W	100%
2-6	Delaware (141.0)	CAA	H	85-65	W	100%
2-9	Georgia St. (209.0)	CAA	A	82-90	W	100%
2-12	James Madison (182.0)	CAA	A	75-70	L	0%
2-16	Hofstra (325.0)	CAA	A	50-57	W	100%
2-23	Drexel (206.0)	CAA	H	72-71	W	100%
2-26	George Mason (162.0)	CAA	A	81-85	W	100%
3-2	Hofstra (325.0)	CAA	H	67-64	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Towson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Towson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Towson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Towson	CAA	26.23	26.23	60.67	60.67	5.60	5.60
James Madison	CAA	4.28	4.28	59.38	59.38	0.80	0.80
Delaware	CAA	4.24	4.24	61.29	61.29	0.96	0.96
George Mason	CAA	4.19	4.19	56.67	56.67	0.56	0.56
Hofstra	CAA	4.17	4.17	20.69	20.69	-2.44	-2.44
William & Mary	CAA	4.16	4.16	40.74	40.74	-0.77	-0.77
Drexel	CAA	4.13	4.13	44.83	44.83	-0.43	-0.43
Georgia St.	CAA	4.09	4.09	46.43	46.43	-0.29	-0.29
NC Wilmington	CAA	4.08	4.08	33.33	33.33	-1.36	-1.36
Northeastern	CAA	2.66	2.66	61.29	61.29	0.60	0.60
Old Dominion	CAA	2.55	2.55	17.24	17.24	-1.67	-1.67
MD Baltimore County	AE	1.85	1.85	20.69	20.69	-1.08	-1.08
Radford	BSth	1.83	1.83	35.71	35.71	-0.52	-0.52
Vermont	AE	1.80	1.80	67.74	67.74	0.64	0.64
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	1.72	1.72	70.00	70.00	0.69	0.69
Kennesaw St.	ASun	1.72	1.72	10.34	10.34	-1.37	-1.37
Loyola MD	MAAC	1.72	1.72	64.52	64.52	0.50	0.50
College of Charleston	SC	1.72	1.72	71.88	71.88	0.75	0.75
Coppin St.	MEAC	1.72	1.72	20.00	20.00	-1.03	-1.03
Temple	A10	1.72	1.72	70.97	70.97	0.72	0.72
North Dakota St.	Sum	1.72	1.72	70.00	70.00	0.69	0.69
Georgetown	BE	1.67	1.67	80.00	80.00	1.00	1.00
Oregon St.	P12	1.67	1.67	45.16	45.16	-0.16	-0.16
Richmond	A10	0.27	0.27	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.25	0.25	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.21	0.21	29.03	29.03	-0.09	-0.09
Liberty	BSth	0.20	0.20	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
Purdue	B10	0.19	0.19	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.19	0.19	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.19	0.19	78.12	78.12	0.11	0.11
Boston University	AE	0.19	0.19	58.62	58.62	0.03	0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.19	0.19	27.59	27.59	-0.08	-0.08
Albany	AE	0.16	0.16	70.59	70.59	0.07	0.07
Rider	MAAC	0.16	0.16	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
High Point	BSth	0.14	0.14	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.14	0.14	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.14	0.14	20.69	20.69	-0.08	-0.08
Hartford	AE	0.14	0.14	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.13	0.13	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
Georgia Southern	SC	0.13	0.13	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Binghamton	AE	0.13	0.13	6.90	6.90	-0.12	-0.12
Maine	AE	0.13	0.13	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
New Hampshire	AE	0.13	0.13	28.57	28.57	-0.06	-0.06
Fairfield	MAAC	0.13	0.13	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.13	0.13	84.38	84.38	0.09	0.09
Canisius	MAAC	0.13	0.13	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.13	0.13	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
NC Greensboro	SC	0.13	0.13	24.14	24.14	-0.07	-0.07
Virginia	ACC	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Duquesne	A10	0.13	0.13	26.67	26.67	-0.06	-0.06
George Washington	A10	0.13	0.13	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
NC Asheville	BSth	0.11	0.11	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.11	0.11	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Wofford	SC	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Stony Brook	AE	0.11	0.11	76.67	76.67	0.06	0.06
Morehead St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.11	0.11	74.29	74.29	0.05	0.05
Wagner	NEC	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.11	0.11	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Winthrop	BSth	0.11	0.11	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.11	0.11	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
La Salle	A10	0.10	0.10	70.00	70.00	0.04	0.04
UCLA	P12	0.10	0.10	73.53	73.53	0.05	0.05
Wake Forest	ACC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.09	0.09	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Longwood	BSth	0.08	0.08	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.08	0.08	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.08	0.08	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.08	0.08	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Western Illinois	Sum	0.08	0.08	71.43	71.43	0.03	0.03
Belmont	OVC	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Kent St.	MAC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.08	0.08	59.26	59.26	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.08	0.08	13.79	13.79	-0.06	-0.06
Xavier	A10	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.08	0.08	21.43	21.43	-0.05	-0.05
St. John's	BE	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
South Florida	BE	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.08	0.08	84.38	84.38	0.05	0.05
Colorado	P12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Washington	P12	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
West Virginia	B12	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.06	0.06	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
American	Pat	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.05	0.05	42.31	42.31	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	7.14	7.14	-0.05	-0.05
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.05	81.25	81.25	0.03	0.03
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
California	P12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	SC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	28.00	28.00	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.03	0.03	35.71	35.71	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	A10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	29.63	29.63	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.03	-0.03
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	23.08	23.08	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Appalachian St.	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00