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Through games of Feb 3, 2016.


Towson

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:161.1
Current RPI:178
Expected SOS:224
Current SOS:324
Current Record:14-7
Expected Record:17-12
Current Conf Record:7-3
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-2
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:251
Expected OOC SOS:350



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-787.40.05%
21-8100.90.54%
20-9116.93.03%
19-10132.411.82%
18-11149.023.82%
17-12164.229.60%
16-13178.621.07%
15-14192.98.56%
14-15206.11.50%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Towson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14La Salle (257.6)A10A78-76L0%0.0
11-16Morgan St. (321.0)MEACH69-61W100%0.0
11-19Oklahoma St. (133.4)B12N52-69L0%0.0
11-20Mississippi (128.7)SECN60-76L0%0.0
11-22Bradley (312.7)MVCN60-62W100%0.0
11-28Coppin St. (322.5)MEACA77-81W100%0.0
12-2George Mason (186.1)A10H75-54W100%0.0
12-5Sacred Heart (291.2)NECH83-61W100%0.0
12-8Loyola MD (243.7)PatA54-65W100%0.0
12-18Fairleigh Dickinson (228.1)NECA69-68L0%0.0
12-23UMBC (323.7)AEH91-65W100%0.0
12-31William & Mary (48.3)CAAA69-76W100%0.0
1-2Hofstra (62.0)CAAH58-90L0%0.0
1-7UNC Wilmington (74.8)CAAH76-60W100%0.0
1-9James Madison (89.5)CAAA73-59L0%0.0
1-14Delaware (268.3)CAAA77-79W100%0.0
1-16Drexel (261.3)CAAH69-50W100%0.0
1-21College of Charleston (108.4)CAAH37-40L0%0.0
1-23Northeastern (133.7)CAAA72-79W100%0.0
1-28Drexel (261.3)CAAA70-77W100%0.0
1-30Delaware (268.3)CAAH101-97W100%0.0
2-4College of Charleston (108.4)CAAA0-031%-5.5
2-6Elon (133.9)CAAA0-042%-2.3
2-11Northeastern (133.7)CAAH0-053%0.9
2-13William & Mary (48.3)CAAH0-042%-2.3
2-18Hofstra (62.0)CAAA0-022%-8.3
2-20Elon (133.9)CAAH0-065%4.3
2-25James Madison (89.5)CAAH0-040%-2.7
2-27UNC Wilmington (74.8)CAAA0-021%-8.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Towson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Towson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Towson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TowsonCAA26.4426.4167.3359.659.165.10
HofstraCAA3.084.4870.0066.151.231.45
DelawareCAA5.344.4826.3226.77-2.53-2.08
James MadisonCAA2.964.4566.6766.580.991.48
DrexelCAA5.244.4416.6721.24-3.49-2.56
NortheasternCAA2.904.4252.3852.500.140.22
ElonCAA0.634.4252.3851.810.030.16
College of CharlestonCAA2.974.4157.8956.360.470.56
UNC WilmingtonCAA3.084.4177.7871.351.711.88
William & MaryCAA2.964.4172.2270.271.321.79
La SalleA102.561.8716.6718.01-1.70-1.20
George MasonA102.541.8738.1036.52-0.61-0.50
Sacred HeartNEC2.501.8530.0034.54-1.00-0.57
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC2.551.8447.3748.88-0.13-0.04
BradleyMVC2.551.819.0910.14-2.09-1.44
Morgan St.MEAC2.441.7922.2230.31-1.36-0.71
Coppin St.MEAC2.441.7916.6723.42-1.63-0.95
MississippiSEC2.491.7861.9054.650.590.17
UMBCAE2.441.7521.7425.90-1.38-0.85
Loyola MDPat2.431.7533.3335.63-0.81-0.50
Oklahoma St.B122.441.7547.6243.95-0.12-0.21
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.270.3043.4848.61-0.04-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.210.2080.0082.450.130.13
HowardMEAC0.240.1940.0042.54-0.05-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.180.1845.4541.72-0.02-0.03
WagnerNEC0.230.1865.0066.480.070.06
Western MichiganMAC0.170.1835.0036.53-0.05-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.190.1660.0061.340.040.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.180.1610.0014.93-0.14-0.11
CampbellBSth0.180.1630.0030.37-0.07-0.06
High PointBSth0.240.1657.8961.500.040.04
FordhamA100.240.1557.8954.260.040.01
DaytonA100.190.1585.7181.160.130.10
VirginiaACC0.230.1581.8276.010.150.08
Saint Joseph'sA100.240.1581.8277.450.150.08
LafayettePat0.290.1523.8125.21-0.15-0.07
LIU BrooklynNEC0.230.1547.6248.88-0.01-0.00
Miami FLACC0.180.1580.9575.610.110.08
NavyPat0.160.1565.2265.140.050.05
South CarolinaSEC0.230.1585.7176.030.160.08
DavidsonA100.110.1557.8955.390.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.160.1570.0069.090.070.06
RichmondA100.170.1452.3853.660.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.1338.1047.45-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.1347.6252.94-0.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.170.1227.2732.86-0.08-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1252.1749.340.01-0.00
RadfordBSth0.120.1252.3853.580.010.01
BryantNEC0.120.1227.2728.18-0.05-0.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.120.129.5210.43-0.09-0.10
IonaMAAC0.230.1257.1457.870.030.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.120.1226.0932.85-0.06-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.120.1236.3643.38-0.03-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.180.1245.0048.54-0.02-0.00
TempleAmer0.240.1260.0056.740.050.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.120.1263.6465.510.030.04
VillanovaBE0.240.1286.3685.350.170.09
PennIvy0.240.1231.2532.69-0.09-0.04
MassachusettsA100.120.1242.8639.85-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.110.1252.1754.410.000.01
FIUCUSA0.050.1245.0046.26-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.110.1225.0028.64-0.06-0.05
Indiana St.MVC0.060.1254.5555.320.010.01
Kansas St.B120.170.1259.0955.590.030.01
ColgatePat0.160.1242.8643.54-0.02-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.110.1150.0052.420.000.01
VermontAE0.100.1156.5258.410.010.02
West VirginiaB120.110.1181.8278.680.070.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.130.1047.8343.86-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.130.0954.5562.010.010.02
UMKCWAC0.120.0931.5835.61-0.04-0.03
ArmyPat0.110.0954.5556.000.010.01
LSUSEC0.110.0963.6459.340.030.02
Rhode IslandA100.060.0954.5555.990.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.110.0940.9139.70-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.110.0965.2266.640.030.03
Iowa St.B120.060.0972.7368.850.030.03
DuquesneA100.170.0966.6758.820.060.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0977.2771.670.030.04
Saint LouisA100.050.0938.1033.39-0.01-0.03
VCUA100.120.0977.2776.770.060.05
HartfordAE0.110.0926.0926.46-0.05-0.04
KansasB120.110.0980.9577.020.070.05
UMass LowellAE0.110.0933.3332.84-0.04-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.160.0940.9138.05-0.03-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.160.0952.1754.090.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.110.0942.8646.40-0.02-0.01
TCUB120.110.0845.4537.84-0.01-0.02
AuburnSEC0.110.0842.8637.17-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.110.0868.1867.860.040.03
LongwoodBSth0.160.0819.0522.37-0.10-0.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.130.0628.5734.75-0.05-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.130.0621.0523.70-0.07-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0626.0930.35-0.03-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0631.5833.46-0.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0652.6352.170.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0655.0057.060.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.060.0656.5253.380.010.00
LibertyBSth0.060.0631.8232.92-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0631.5833.82-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0657.8957.300.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.120.0678.2680.250.070.04
Penn St.B100.120.0647.8343.74-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.130.0639.1342.17-0.03-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.120.0630.0027.15-0.05-0.03
The CitadelSC0.060.0635.0031.32-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0626.3232.02-0.03-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0626.3233.78-0.00-0.02
AmericanPat0.050.0631.8232.75-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0628.5731.39-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.110.0631.8226.63-0.04-0.03
BucknellPat0.050.0652.3856.790.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.110.0657.1457.540.020.01
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0643.4845.60-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0636.3642.26-0.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.110.0668.4265.550.040.02
DukeACC0.000.0672.7369.840.000.02
FairfieldMAAC0.110.0654.5553.570.010.00
Florida St.ACC0.060.0668.1863.270.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0622.7324.28-0.00-0.03
LehighPat0.110.0630.0036.15-0.04-0.02
MaristMAAC0.110.0620.0023.37-0.07-0.03
MichiganB100.000.0672.7367.960.000.02
NorthwesternB100.110.0665.2262.560.030.01
South FloridaAmer0.110.0621.7420.38-0.06-0.04
SyracuseACC0.000.0666.6762.680.000.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0673.6870.400.000.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0626.3231.41-0.00-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.120.0645.0043.40-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0642.1142.42-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0622.7324.87-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0673.9176.040.020.03
HarvardIvy0.050.0638.8942.87-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0652.1747.670.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.050.0621.7427.66-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0640.9139.23-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0628.5728.84-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0682.6181.350.040.04
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0642.8643.82-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0675.0073.420.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.100.0676.1979.630.050.03
Seton HallBE0.110.0672.7368.720.050.02
AlbanyAE0.100.0673.9175.030.050.03
BaylorB120.110.0676.1967.300.060.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.0622.7326.18-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0660.0056.160.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.110.0642.8651.38-0.020.00
MaineAE0.050.0636.3635.54-0.01-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0642.8641.82-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0636.3630.97-0.01-0.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0652.6351.510.000.00
OklahomaB120.050.0690.4884.890.040.04
TexasB120.050.0668.1861.780.020.01
Texas TechB120.050.0661.9053.990.010.00
AkronMAC0.060.0380.9579.170.040.02
CaliforniaP120.060.0363.6461.990.020.01
CreightonBE0.060.0360.8759.050.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0338.8943.20-0.01-0.00
IowaB100.060.0381.8279.860.040.02
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0352.3848.770.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0363.1666.780.020.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0330.0028.66-0.03-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0372.7372.810.030.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0345.0049.62-0.01-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0326.3236.88-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0368.7573.120.020.01
RutgersB100.060.0322.7320.54-0.03-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0340.0042.84-0.01-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.060.0347.8343.86-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0371.4370.600.020.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0335.0035.36-0.02-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0368.4264.500.020.01
YaleIvy0.060.0370.5972.510.020.01
ArizonaP120.050.0378.2677.150.030.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0361.9058.220.010.00
Boise St.MWC0.050.0366.6766.030.020.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0329.4138.47-0.02-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0341.1845.90-0.01-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0368.4272.210.020.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0357.1452.230.010.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0350.0054.860.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0321.7424.59-0.03-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0355.0048.810.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.050.0331.5836.20-0.02-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0333.3333.47-0.02-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0358.8257.880.010.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0372.7369.670.020.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0373.6871.200.030.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0361.9060.620.010.01
MercerSC0.050.0371.4370.680.020.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0327.2728.76-0.02-0.01
NJITASun0.050.0352.1754.520.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0331.5830.77-0.02-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0318.7526.09-0.03-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0315.0017.00-0.04-0.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0327.2724.42-0.02-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0048.300.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0385.7182.930.000.02
TroySB0.050.0321.0524.29-0.03-0.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0366.6761.590.020.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0357.1460.720.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0345.4542.10-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.050.0352.3853.480.000.00