Towson

Conference:	CAA
Expected RPI:	153.0
Current RPI:	153
Expected SOS:	172
Current SOS:	172
Current Record:	16-14
Expected Record:	16-14
Current Conf Record:	8-11
Expected Conf Record:	8-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-6
Current OOC Record:	8-3
Expected OOC Record:	8-3
Expected OOC RPI:	51
Expected OOC SOS:	193

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-14	153.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Towson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Old Dominion (78.0)	CUSA	A	57-54	L	0%
11-17	Loyola MD (322.0)	Pat	A	72-95	W	100%
11-20	Florida Atlantic (275.0)	CUSA	N	52-76	W	100%
11-21	Penn (112.0)	Ivy	N	79-71	W	100%
11-22	Georgia Southern (140.0)	SB	N	70-67	W	100%
12-1	La Salle (202.0)	A10	N	60-67	W	100%
12-2	Manhattan (228.0)	MAAC	N	56-55	W	100%
12-6	Morgan St. (327.0)	MEAC	H	82-78	W	100%
12-9	UMBC (111.0)	AE	H	78-65	W	100%
12-20	Oakland (182.0)	Horz	A	97-86	L	0%
12-22	Pittsburgh (217.0)	ACC	A	63-59	L	0%
12-30	College of Charleston (57.0)	CAA	A	73-62	L	0%
1-2	Elon (205.0)	CAA	A	75-72	L	0%
1-5	UNC Wilmington (245.0)	CAA	H	89-71	W	100%
1-7	College of Charleston (57.0)	CAA	H	73-62	W	100%
1-11	Hofstra (121.0)	CAA	H	73-76	L	0%
1-13	William & Mary (94.0)	CAA	A	73-99	W	100%
1-18	Drexel (242.0)	CAA	H	90-68	W	100%
1-20	UNC Wilmington (245.0)	CAA	A	73-71	L	0%
1-25	William & Mary (94.0)	CAA	H	96-82	W	100%
1-27	Elon (205.0)	CAA	H	76-83	L	0%
2-1	Delaware (233.0)	CAA	A	71-75	W	100%
2-3	James Madison (272.0)	CAA	A	79-73	L	0%
2-8	Drexel (242.0)	CAA	A	92-94	W	100%
2-10	Northeastern (55.0)	CAA	H	62-77	L	0%
2-15	Delaware (233.0)	CAA	H	67-65	W	100%
2-17	James Madison (272.0)	CAA	H	66-69	L	0%
2-22	Northeastern (55.0)	CAA	A	80-75	L	0%
2-24	Hofstra (121.0)	CAA	A	91-86	L	0%
3-4	William & Mary (94.0)	CAA	N	80-66	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Towson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Towson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Towson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Towson	CAA	26.42	26.42	55.22	55.22	2.76	2.76
William & Mary	CAA	5.94	5.94	61.54	61.54	1.37	1.37
College of Charleston	CAA	4.45	4.45	79.31	79.31	2.61	2.61
Northeastern	CAA	4.43	4.43	66.67	66.67	1.48	1.48
Drexel	CAA	4.43	4.43	40.00	40.00	-0.89	-0.89
Delaware	CAA	4.37	4.37	41.38	41.38	-0.75	-0.75
UNC Wilmington	CAA	4.37	4.37	28.57	28.57	-1.87	-1.87
Hofstra	CAA	4.34	4.34	57.14	57.14	0.62	0.62
James Madison	CAA	4.34	4.34	24.14	24.14	-2.25	-2.25
Elon	CAA	4.31	4.31	35.71	35.71	-1.23	-1.23
Old Dominion	CUSA	1.87	1.87	77.42	77.42	1.02	1.02
Manhattan	MAAC	1.75	1.75	46.67	46.67	-0.12	-0.12
La Salle	A10	1.75	1.75	41.94	41.94	-0.28	-0.28
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	1.72	1.72	33.33	33.33	-0.57	-0.57
Loyola MD	Pat	1.72	1.72	27.59	27.59	-0.77	-0.77
Morgan St.	MEAC	1.69	1.69	37.93	37.93	-0.41	-0.41
Penn	Ivy	1.69	1.69	76.67	76.67	0.90	0.90
Georgia Southern	SB	1.67	1.67	63.33	63.33	0.44	0.44
Oakland	Horz	1.67	1.67	56.25	56.25	0.21	0.21
Pittsburgh	ACC	1.67	1.67	22.58	22.58	-0.91	-0.91
UMBC	AE	1.67	1.67	70.00	70.00	0.67	0.67
FIU	CUSA	0.22	0.22	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
George Mason	A10	0.22	0.22	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.22	0.22	17.86	17.86	-0.14	-0.14
Navy	Pat	0.19	0.19	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.19	0.19	6.67	6.67	-0.16	-0.16
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.17	0.17	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.17	0.17	69.70	69.70	0.07	0.07
High Point	BSth	0.17	0.17	40.74	40.74	-0.03	-0.03
Army	Pat	0.17	0.17	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.16	0.16	77.42	77.42	0.09	0.09
Boston University	Pat	0.16	0.16	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.16	0.16	67.74	67.74	0.06	0.06
Siena	MAAC	0.16	0.16	25.00	25.00	-0.08	-0.08
Bucknell	Pat	0.16	0.16	73.53	73.53	0.08	0.08
Rider	MAAC	0.16	0.16	70.97	70.97	0.07	0.07
Cornell	Ivy	0.16	0.16	40.74	40.74	-0.03	-0.03
Harvard	Ivy	0.16	0.16	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.16	0.16	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Ohio St.	B10	0.14	0.14	75.00	75.00	0.07	0.07
Monmouth	MAAC	0.14	0.14	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Dayton	A10	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.13	0.13	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Fairfield	MAAC	0.13	0.13	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.13	0.13	78.79	78.79	0.08	0.08
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.13	0.13	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
Temple	Amer	0.13	0.13	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
South Florida	Amer	0.11	0.11	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Howard	MEAC	0.11	0.11	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
UTSA	CUSA	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.11	0.11	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Radford	BSth	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Stony Brook	AE	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.11	0.11	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.11	0.11	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
UMass Lowell	AE	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.11	0.11	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Duke	ACC	0.11	0.11	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Milwaukee	Horz	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	ACC	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.11	0.11	36.36	36.36	-0.03	-0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
TCU	B12	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
UCF	Amer	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
North Texas	CUSA	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.09	0.09	17.24	17.24	-0.06	-0.06
UAB	CUSA	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Colgate	Pat	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	15.62	15.62	-0.06	-0.06
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Davidson	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Indiana St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.08	0.08	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.08	0.08	23.08	23.08	-0.04	-0.04
Appalachian St.	SB	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia St.	SB	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Hartford	AE	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
UMKC	WAC	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
South Alabama	SB	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.08	0.08	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Mercer	SC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Syracuse	ACC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	32.35	32.35	-0.03	-0.03
IUPUI	Horz	0.08	0.08	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.06	0.06	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
American	Pat	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
East Carolina	Amer	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.06	0.06	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
LSU	SEC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Albany	AE	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.05	26.92	26.92	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Longwood	BSth	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Maine	AE	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Texas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Chicago St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	3.33	3.33	-0.05	-0.05
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Houston	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
NJIT	ASun	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Utah St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
VCU	A10	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Maryland	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
SMU	Amer	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
New Orleans	Slnd	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	44.12	44.12	-0.00	-0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00