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Through games of Nov 25, 2014.


Towson

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:153.7
Current RPI:137
Expected SOS:239
Current SOS:273
Current Record:4-1
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-3
Current OOC Record:4-1
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:130
Expected OOC SOS:324



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-551.90.09%
24-659.00.23%
23-771.90.88%
22-884.52.07%
21-996.85.14%
20-10111.99.40%
19-11126.613.70%
18-12142.917.17%
17-13158.217.16%
16-14175.713.91%
15-15193.710.23%
14-16211.95.49%
13-17229.92.98%
12-18248.21.08%
11-19262.00.40%
10-20282.80.04%
9-21269.00.01%
8-22292.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Towson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Alabama (63.9)SECA82-54L0%0.0
11-17Morgan St. (279.1)MEACA46-51W100%0.0
11-21Central Connecticut (319.9)NECN49-58W100%0.0
11-22Bethune Cookman (338.2)MEACN63-42W100%0.0
11-23Monmouth (180.3)MAACA75-79W100%0.0
11-29UMBC (321.8)AEA0-073%7.4
12-3Coppin St. (283.4)MEACH0-087%13.4
12-7Georgetown (63.9)BEA0-016%-12.2
12-10Temple (133.4)AmerA0-031%-5.9
12-20La Salle (99.7)A10H0-048%-0.5
12-22Navy (281.1)PatA0-066%4.9
12-29Fairleigh Dickinson (290.8)NECH0-085%12.2
1-3James Madison (214.3)CAAA0-048%-0.5
1-5Elon (220.4)CAAH0-072%6.9
1-8Drexel (231.4)CAAH0-072%7.0
1-10Northeastern (59.4)CAAH0-038%-3.5
1-14Delaware (313.4)CAAA0-072%7.0
1-17William & Mary (106.0)CAAH0-054%1.2
1-22Elon (220.4)CAAA0-049%-0.3
1-24UNC Wilmington (169.9)CAAA0-043%-2.0
1-29College of Charleston (147.4)CAAH0-056%1.7
1-31Hofstra (106.2)CAAA0-026%-7.8
2-4Northeastern (59.4)CAAA0-019%-10.7
2-7James Madison (214.3)CAAH0-071%6.7
2-11Drexel (231.4)CAAA0-049%-0.2
2-15College of Charleston (147.4)CAAA0-032%-5.5
2-18Hofstra (106.2)CAAH0-048%-0.6
2-21UNC Wilmington (169.9)CAAH0-067%5.2
2-25William & Mary (106.0)CAAA0-031%-6.0
2-28Delaware (313.4)CAAH0-088%14.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Towson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Towson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Towson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TowsonCAA30.2526.3788.8961.3723.535.99
HofstraCAA0.004.3460.0067.010.001.48
DelawareCAA0.004.300.0017.95-0.00-2.76
NortheasternCAA0.004.28100.0072.280.001.91
ElonCAA1.004.2750.0043.340.00-0.57
DrexelCAA0.004.2720.0035.11-0.00-1.27
College of CharlestonCAA0.004.2540.0052.22-0.000.19
James MadisonCAA0.004.2575.0048.280.00-0.15
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.004.2466.6747.310.00-0.23
William & MaryCAA0.004.2475.0056.340.000.54
Central ConnecticutNEC12.251.860.0031.43-12.25-0.69
Morgan St.MEAC10.001.810.0040.40-10.00-0.35
La SalleA100.001.81100.0057.120.000.26
Coppin St.MEAC0.001.810.0028.07-0.00-0.79
Bethune CookmanMEAC12.251.7825.0031.90-6.13-0.64
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.001.7833.3338.23-0.00-0.42
TempleAmer0.001.7560.0049.300.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC12.001.7266.6755.094.000.18
NavyPat0.001.7220.0031.32-0.00-0.64
UMBCAE0.001.690.0028.83-0.00-0.72
AlabamaSEC10.001.6775.0057.585.000.25
GeorgetownBE0.001.67100.0056.200.000.21
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.2525.0047.03-0.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.2125.0046.48-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.2025.0043.52-0.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.2033.3346.11-0.00-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.200.0050.30-0.000.00
RichmondA100.000.2066.6766.740.000.07
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1933.3333.84-0.00-0.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.190.0044.90-0.00-0.02
WagnerNEC0.000.190.0043.63-0.00-0.02
VillanovaBE0.000.17100.0078.020.000.10
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1714.2929.93-0.00-0.07
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1760.0037.460.00-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.170.0035.72-0.00-0.05
CampbellBSth0.000.170.0031.79-0.00-0.06
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1733.3333.44-0.00-0.06
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1675.0070.310.000.07
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1460.0068.250.000.05
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1425.0044.79-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.1450.0053.610.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.1425.0039.71-0.00-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1425.0049.91-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.1475.0054.260.000.01
FairfieldMAAC1.000.1340.0033.22-0.20-0.05
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1280.0074.570.000.06
FloridaSEC0.000.1266.6771.550.000.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.120.0028.01-0.00-0.05
LibertyBSth0.000.1225.0029.87-0.00-0.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.120.0021.34-0.00-0.07
HamptonMEAC0.000.1220.0045.09-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.120.0027.32-0.00-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.120.0064.97-0.000.03
High PointBSth0.000.1275.0056.990.000.02
ArmyPat0.000.11100.0069.380.000.04
BryantNEC0.000.1150.0055.150.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.1175.0073.890.000.05
MaristMAAC0.000.110.0031.98-0.00-0.04
Miami FLACC0.000.11100.0081.280.000.07
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1133.3340.46-0.00-0.02
AmericanPat0.000.1160.0057.160.000.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1120.0042.26-0.00-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1125.0055.20-0.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.1150.0034.200.00-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.000.1150.0066.080.000.04
The CitadelSC0.000.110.0029.35-0.00-0.05
PennIvy0.000.110.0025.91-0.00-0.05
RiderMAAC0.000.1150.0047.880.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.1180.0060.610.000.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1175.0067.070.000.04
St. John'sBE0.000.09100.0052.030.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0950.0037.650.00-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.09100.0069.080.000.03
XavierBE0.000.09100.0079.400.000.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0920.0026.30-0.00-0.04
MinnesotaB100.000.0966.6759.490.000.02
Notre DameACC0.000.0980.0071.450.000.04
Penn St.B101.000.0983.3348.030.67-0.00
VMISC0.000.0933.3338.23-0.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0940.0036.72-0.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA1.000.0966.6750.750.330.00
LafayettePat0.000.0975.0065.570.000.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0940.0033.07-0.00-0.03
DukeACC0.000.09100.0084.950.000.06
BinghamtonAE0.000.090.0024.20-0.00-0.04
LehighPat0.000.090.0035.78-0.00-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0940.0028.76-0.00-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.000.0975.0052.460.000.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0833.3352.31-0.000.00
HartfordAE0.000.0880.0051.980.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0875.0064.500.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0833.3346.41-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.080.0024.22-0.00-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.000.0825.0020.71-0.00-0.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.08100.0071.500.000.04
UCFAmer0.000.08100.0048.890.00-0.00
FordhamA100.000.080.0026.74-0.00-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0850.0025.530.00-0.04
George MasonA100.000.0820.0022.51-0.00-0.04
LSUSEC0.000.0860.0056.190.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0850.0055.650.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.08100.0075.610.000.04
SMUAmer0.000.0840.0066.55-0.000.03
West VirginiaB121.250.08100.0070.281.250.03
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0058.780.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0060.560.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.06100.0036.220.00-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.06100.0069.870.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0633.3330.02-0.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0065.620.000.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0625.0025.51-0.00-0.03
WoffordSC0.000.0680.0076.700.000.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.0675.0064.660.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.0675.0059.500.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0633.3336.17-0.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.060.0038.35-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0079.500.000.04
Miami OHMAC0.000.0650.0030.040.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.000.06100.0043.950.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0666.6752.600.000.00
USCP120.000.0650.0028.900.00-0.03
AkronMAC0.000.0660.0066.000.000.02
KansasB120.000.0666.6760.800.000.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0633.3361.54-0.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.0633.3336.66-0.00-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0620.0038.11-0.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.06100.0066.730.000.02
MaineAE0.000.060.0017.58-0.00-0.04
New HampshireAE0.000.0633.3349.68-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.000.0680.0070.420.000.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0660.0042.550.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0633.3358.10-0.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0650.0024.400.00-0.03
Arizona St.P122.000.0660.0054.250.400.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6772.650.000.03
North FloridaASun0.000.0625.0048.23-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer1.000.0666.6760.350.330.01
NJITind0.000.0620.0028.08-0.00-0.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0650.0035.490.00-0.02
DaytonA100.000.0675.0071.680.000.02
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0089.550.000.04
Rhode IslandA100.000.06100.0060.980.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0640.0050.32-0.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.06100.0052.850.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0566.6755.870.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.05100.0059.140.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0560.0059.230.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0540.0039.52-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0533.3323.56-0.00-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0540.0058.90-0.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0566.6774.280.000.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0520.0043.52-0.00-0.01
MarylandB101.000.05100.0072.101.000.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0533.3329.06-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.05100.0061.980.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.05100.0074.680.000.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0533.3340.34-0.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0533.3359.03-0.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0566.6738.430.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0575.0059.380.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0575.0055.300.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0566.6753.920.000.00
IndianaB100.000.0380.0058.080.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0333.3349.98-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.000.0366.6766.590.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0060.830.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0051.400.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0366.6762.900.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0065.710.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0375.0066.400.000.01
OregonP120.000.0360.0063.180.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0039.42-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0340.0044.83-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0340.0047.31-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.000.0360.0064.290.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0333.3353.13-0.000.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0375.0072.430.000.01
Northern IowaMVC1.000.03100.0073.991.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.030.0032.66-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC1.000.0366.6741.550.33-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0333.3367.26-0.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0029.35-0.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0350.0031.510.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0081.020.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.03100.0055.470.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0375.0055.820.000.00
Iowa St.B121.000.0375.0063.470.500.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0052.730.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0047.350.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0375.0047.410.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0043.100.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0366.6744.670.00-0.00
UCLAP120.000.03100.0065.220.000.01
VCUA100.000.0380.0073.820.000.01
Western CarolinaSC1.000.0325.0050.46-0.500.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.03100.0083.950.000.02
BrownIvy0.000.0320.0038.78-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0380.0070.940.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0350.0067.350.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0050.770.000.00