live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Towson

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:88.0
Current RPI:88
Expected SOS:115
Current SOS:115
Current Record:19-13
Expected Record:19-13
Current Conf Record:12-8
Expected Conf Record:12-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-3
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:105
Expected OOC SOS:90



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1388.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Towson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12George Mason (103.0)A10A61-67W100%0.0
11-15Morgan St. (326.0)MEACA72-78W100%0.0
11-20Maryland (36.0)B10A71-66L0%0.0
11-22Boston College (219.0)ACCA80-70L0%0.0
11-25Stony Brook (176.0)AEH88-63W100%0.0
11-26Robert Morris (237.0)NECH66-67L0%0.0
12-3Old Dominion (138.0)CUSAH58-60L0%0.0
12-7Loyola MD (212.0)PatH70-53W100%0.0
12-10Fairleigh Dickinson (273.0)NECH90-87W100%0.0
12-17UMBC (165.0)AEA72-73W100%0.0
12-21Nevada (29.0)MWCN72-81L0%0.0
12-22Iona (89.0)MAACN69-76W100%0.0
12-31UNC Wilmington (27.0)CAAH67-76L0%0.0
1-2James Madison (255.0)CAAA64-44L0%0.0
1-5College of Charleston (64.0)CAAA62-57L0%0.0
1-7Elon (161.0)CAAA72-61L0%0.0
1-12Delaware (235.0)CAAH83-56W100%0.0
1-14Northeastern (136.0)CAAH74-67W100%0.0
1-19Hofstra (196.0)CAAA80-86W100%0.0
1-21Delaware (235.0)CAAA58-75W100%0.0
1-26College of Charleston (64.0)CAAH83-77W100%0.0
1-28Northeastern (136.0)CAAA69-62L0%0.0
2-2Drexel (308.0)CAAH104-103W100%0.0
2-4William & Mary (110.0)CAAH82-80W100%0.0
2-9Hofstra (196.0)CAAH69-65W100%0.0
2-11Drexel (308.0)CAAA65-69W100%0.0
2-16Elon (161.0)CAAH85-66W100%0.0
2-18James Madison (255.0)CAAH75-65W100%0.0
2-23UNC Wilmington (27.0)CAAA83-78L0%0.0
2-25William & Mary (110.0)CAAA83-79L0%0.0
3-4Northeastern (136.0)CAAN82-54W100%0.0
3-5College of Charleston (64.0)CAAA67-59L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Towson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Towson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Towson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TowsonCAA26.4526.4561.5961.596.136.13
College of CharlestonCAA5.655.6573.3373.332.632.63
NortheasternCAA5.565.5650.0050.000.000.00
James MadisonCAA4.234.2326.6726.67-1.97-1.97
UNC WilmingtonCAA4.214.2183.3383.332.802.80
DelawareCAA4.154.1537.9337.93-1.00-1.00
William & MaryCAA4.154.1551.8551.850.150.15
HofstraCAA4.104.1048.2848.28-0.14-0.14
ElonCAA4.084.0853.5753.570.290.29
DrexelCAA4.084.0827.5927.59-1.83-1.83
Stony BrookAE1.821.8260.0060.000.360.36
IonaMAAC1.691.6966.6766.670.560.56
Old DominionCUSA1.671.6760.0060.000.330.33
UMBCAE1.661.6659.2659.260.310.31
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.631.6335.7135.71-0.47-0.47
Robert MorrisNEC1.621.6240.6240.62-0.30-0.30
George MasonA101.611.6161.2961.290.360.36
NevadaMWC1.611.6181.8281.821.021.02
Boston CollegeACC1.591.5925.8125.81-0.77-0.77
Loyola MDPat1.591.5948.2848.28-0.05-0.05
MarylandB101.591.5973.3373.330.740.74
Morgan St.MEAC1.561.5646.4346.43-0.11-0.11
VermontAE0.230.2384.8584.850.160.16
Boston UniversityPat0.230.2354.8454.840.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.230.2361.2961.290.050.05
RichmondA100.220.2262.5062.500.060.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.200.2055.8855.880.020.02
MaineAE0.180.1819.3519.35-0.11-0.11
HartfordAE0.180.1828.1228.12-0.08-0.08
RutgersB100.180.1843.7543.75-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.180.1841.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.180.1840.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
BinghamtonAE0.160.1631.0331.03-0.06-0.06
WagnerNEC0.160.1651.7251.720.010.01
NavyPat0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
New HampshireAE0.130.1358.6258.620.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
AlbanyAE0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
DukeACC0.130.1377.1477.140.070.07
HamptonMEAC0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
St. Francis PANEC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.120.1231.2531.25-0.05-0.05
OaklandHorz0.120.1273.3373.330.060.06
East CarolinaAmer0.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
SienaMAAC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.1140.7440.74-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.06-0.06
HowardMEAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
LouisvilleACC0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
Rhode IslandA100.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
South FloridaAmer0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
DuquesneA100.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
BryantNEC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1010.0010.00-0.08-0.08
LehighPat0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
RadfordBSth0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
HarvardIvy0.100.1061.5461.540.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
RiceCUSA0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
The CitadelSC0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
PennIvy0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
MaristMAAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
MonmouthMAAC0.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
NiagaraMAAC0.100.1030.3030.30-0.04-0.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Seton HallBE0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
AmericanPat0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
FIUCUSA0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
GeorgetownBE0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Penn St.B100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0838.4638.46-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
Notre DameACC0.070.0773.5373.530.040.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0787.8887.880.060.06
Kansas St.B120.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
ClemsonACC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Coastal CarolinaSB0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.070.0791.1891.180.060.06
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
LibertyBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
BrownIvy0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
IowaB100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Miami OHMAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
NJITASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
UNLVMWC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
LipscombASun0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
IndianaB100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
DaytonA100.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
MercerSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
DePaulBE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0287.5087.500.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
WashingtonP120.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
WyomingMWC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00