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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Towson

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:160.8
Current RPI:219
Expected SOS:191
Current SOS:290
Current Record:3-3
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-5
Current OOC Record:3-3
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:180
Expected OOC SOS:233



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-534.00.01%
24-655.50.02%
23-763.70.25%
22-874.30.73%
21-987.72.06%
20-10101.75.30%
19-11115.29.22%
18-12131.013.06%
17-13147.917.06%
16-14165.117.22%
15-15183.713.83%
14-16201.710.52%
13-17220.45.93%
12-18238.33.16%
11-19254.51.16%
10-20274.10.32%
9-21288.70.11%
8-22281.50.02%
7-23300.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Towson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12George Mason (200.3)A10A61-67W100%0.0
11-15Morgan St. (332.1)MEACA72-78W100%0.0
11-20Maryland (99.7)B10A71-66L0%0.0
11-22Boston College (245.5)ACCA80-70L0%0.0
11-25Stony Brook (298.6)AEH88-63W100%0.0
11-26Robert Morris (246.0)NECH66-67L0%0.0
12-3Old Dominion (97.6)CUSAH0-048%-0.7
12-7Loyola MD (218.3)PatH0-078%9.4
12-10Fairleigh Dickinson (267.1)NECH0-085%12.3
12-17UMBC (212.5)AEA0-058%2.4
12-21Nevada (46.6)MWCN0-025%-8.0
12-22Iona (82.5)MAACN0-037%-3.9
12-31UNC Wilmington (50.6)CAAH0-037%-4.0
1-2James Madison (268.0)CAAA0-061%3.3
1-5College of Charleston (141.6)CAAA0-039%-3.3
1-7Elon (136.0)CAAA0-041%-2.8
1-12Delaware (225.1)CAAH0-074%7.7
1-14Northeastern (167.3)CAAH0-066%4.9
1-19Hofstra (237.3)CAAA0-059%2.8
1-21Delaware (225.1)CAAA0-055%1.6
1-26College of Charleston (141.6)CAAH0-060%2.9
1-28Northeastern (167.3)CAAA0-046%-1.3
2-2Drexel (245.8)CAAH0-078%9.2
2-4William & Mary (121.0)CAAH0-056%1.9
2-9Hofstra (237.3)CAAH0-077%9.0
2-11Drexel (245.8)CAAA0-060%3.0
2-16Elon (136.0)CAAH0-061%3.4
2-18James Madison (268.0)CAAH0-079%9.5
2-23UNC Wilmington (50.6)CAAA0-020%-10.2
2-25William & Mary (121.0)CAAA0-036%-4.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Towson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Towson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Towson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TowsonCAA28.7926.3656.6754.783.842.52
James MadisonCAA0.604.330.0027.99-0.60-1.91
HofstraCAA0.004.2757.1441.180.00-0.75
NortheasternCAA0.004.2757.1448.520.00-0.13
DelawareCAA0.004.2740.0041.04-0.00-0.76
William & MaryCAA0.004.2640.0055.58-0.000.48
College of CharlestonCAA0.004.2462.5056.920.000.59
DrexelCAA0.004.2442.8637.23-0.00-1.08
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.004.2483.3377.560.002.34
ElonCAA0.004.2483.3358.680.000.74
Stony BrookAE9.621.9220.0035.03-5.77-0.58
IonaMAAC0.001.8160.0070.390.000.74
Old DominionCUSA0.001.7866.6766.270.000.58
UMBCAE0.001.7880.0055.850.000.21
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.001.7520.0034.92-0.00-0.53
Robert MorrisNEC8.331.7314.2937.26-5.95-0.44
George MasonA108.331.7266.6744.422.78-0.19
NevadaMWC0.001.7275.0070.320.000.70
Boston CollegeACC9.031.7040.0024.82-1.81-0.85
Loyola MDPat0.691.7033.3341.19-0.23-0.30
MarylandB109.031.7083.3354.996.020.17
Morgan St.MEAC8.331.6720.0038.46-5.00-0.38
RichmondA101.810.2557.1448.600.26-0.01
VermontAE0.000.2362.5071.630.000.10
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.600.2012.5048.98-0.45-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.2012.5022.55-0.00-0.11
RutgersB100.000.2083.3344.770.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.2083.3357.990.000.03
CharlotteCUSA0.000.2066.6751.090.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.2042.8638.05-0.00-0.05
MaineAE0.000.1716.6725.61-0.00-0.09
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1750.0053.530.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1760.0052.760.000.01
BradleyMVC0.600.1750.0029.280.00-0.07
BinghamtonAE0.000.1542.8640.94-0.00-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.000.1525.0040.81-0.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1516.6736.35-0.00-0.04
HamptonMEAC1.220.150.0034.18-1.22-0.05
DukeACC0.000.1587.5078.680.000.08
NavyPat0.000.1528.5743.62-0.00-0.02
WagnerNEC0.000.1433.3353.85-0.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1440.0043.86-0.00-0.02
High PointBSth0.690.1450.0051.260.000.00
La SalleA100.000.1460.0051.780.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1433.3338.19-0.00-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.1466.6770.740.000.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.120.0024.19-0.00-0.06
AlbanyAE0.000.1250.0060.380.000.02
New HampshireAE0.000.1250.0057.480.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.1271.4370.330.000.05
LouisvilleACC0.000.1285.7175.950.000.06
DuquesneA100.000.1237.5034.65-0.00-0.04
LehighPat0.000.1233.3367.01-0.000.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.120.0018.22-0.00-0.07
LafayettePat0.000.1233.3331.87-0.00-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.000.1166.6732.240.00-0.04
BryantNEC0.000.1128.5750.20-0.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.1140.0037.65-0.00-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1116.6729.36-0.00-0.05
RadfordBSth0.000.1133.3336.31-0.00-0.03
MaristMAAC0.000.1142.8635.68-0.00-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1175.0047.510.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.1140.0030.80-0.00-0.04
RiceCUSA0.000.1185.7169.010.000.04
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1116.6736.45-0.00-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1183.3362.080.000.03
PennIvy0.520.1140.0057.97-0.100.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.1150.0058.980.000.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1171.4371.570.000.05
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1116.6727.03-0.00-0.05
OaklandHorz0.000.1183.3378.430.000.06
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.1116.6734.31-0.00-0.03
RiderMAAC0.000.1150.0047.990.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.000.1128.5750.51-0.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.1171.4352.370.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.0933.3345.58-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.690.090.0034.23-0.69-0.03
AmericanPat0.600.0916.6735.65-0.40-0.03
Seton HallBE0.000.0971.4354.520.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0940.0027.05-0.00-0.04
BucknellPat0.520.0975.0067.660.260.03
CampbellBSth0.690.0925.0033.54-0.35-0.03
HowardMEAC0.000.090.0038.26-0.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0985.7172.660.000.04
Penn St.B100.000.0962.5043.960.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0916.6733.69-0.00-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.600.0950.0047.560.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0885.7162.920.000.02
ColumbiaIvy0.690.0842.8642.47-0.10-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.08100.0075.010.000.04
DavidsonA100.000.0883.3368.880.000.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0820.0034.39-0.00-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.600.0850.0051.820.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0825.0024.66-0.00-0.04
LSUSEC0.000.0871.4349.770.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0850.0061.590.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0885.7173.010.000.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0850.0046.780.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0885.7178.150.000.05
ClemsonACC0.000.0866.6753.460.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.080.0043.04-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B121.810.0885.7155.891.290.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0666.6756.360.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0640.0050.71-0.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0633.3327.13-0.00-0.03
ColgatePat0.000.0620.0041.31-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0023.46-0.00-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.000.0642.8647.69-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.690.0650.0042.420.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0657.1443.680.00-0.01
HoustonAmer1.290.0683.3376.370.860.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0640.0041.65-0.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0633.3335.92-0.00-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0650.0050.290.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0650.0033.010.00-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0642.8645.30-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0650.0052.140.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0650.0064.840.000.02
YaleIvy0.000.0633.3364.14-0.000.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0633.3345.60-0.00-0.00
NJITASun0.000.0642.8650.32-0.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0620.0036.00-0.00-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0628.5739.44-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0633.3338.76-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0628.5730.63-0.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0683.3380.700.000.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0642.8646.78-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0633.3340.39-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0657.1444.160.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0657.1442.660.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0642.8644.33-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0086.250.000.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0666.6761.340.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0683.3359.600.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0683.3358.080.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0685.7165.670.000.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.0650.0062.460.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0633.3326.75-0.00-0.03
South DakotaSum0.000.0657.1447.220.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0657.1467.020.000.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0642.8650.36-0.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.0683.3374.620.000.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.0633.3338.20-0.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0083.120.000.04
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0616.6718.96-0.00-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0642.8634.17-0.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.050.0023.47-0.00-0.03
PittsburghACC0.600.0585.7155.550.430.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0550.0042.710.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0540.0050.91-0.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0533.3341.52-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0585.7162.410.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0560.0039.610.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0571.4358.670.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0575.0074.990.000.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0540.0037.44-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0566.6770.140.000.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.050.0033.44-0.00-0.02
UNLVMWC0.000.0571.4349.590.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.000.05100.0082.550.000.03
Utah St.MWC0.000.0550.0053.560.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0328.5730.29-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0316.6731.91-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.690.0333.3343.64-0.23-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0316.6743.29-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0385.7180.960.000.02
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0076.650.000.02
LipscombASun0.000.0314.2933.07-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0038.35-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.32-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0366.6775.370.000.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.77-0.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0366.6772.440.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0360.0067.410.000.01
IndianaB100.000.0383.3375.060.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0357.1447.320.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0340.0067.95-0.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0350.0053.050.000.00
MichiganB100.000.0371.4366.530.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0350.0043.610.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.600.0340.0057.49-0.120.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0371.4366.220.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0383.3356.560.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0316.6732.62-0.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0371.4374.450.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0333.3323.33-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0328.5733.92-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0357.1461.940.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0325.0043.26-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0328.5728.46-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0375.0073.840.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0383.3355.200.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0383.3361.490.000.01
DePaulBE0.520.0380.0035.960.31-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.030.0021.30-0.00-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0366.6739.720.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0371.4365.740.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.690.0342.8637.25-0.10-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0385.7180.010.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0371.4350.570.000.00
OhioMAC0.000.0380.0068.320.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0328.5723.76-0.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.000.0350.0049.010.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0371.4356.280.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0089.040.000.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0350.0054.690.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.0357.1452.630.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0320.0054.94-0.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.0360.0048.590.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.520.0342.8637.60-0.07-0.01