Troy

Conference:	SB
Expected RPI:	260.0
Current RPI:	260
Expected SOS:	207
Current SOS:	207
Current Record:	9-18
Expected Record:	9-18
Current Conf Record:	5-12
Expected Conf Record:	5-12
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-4
Current OOC Record:	4-6
Expected OOC Record:	4-6
Expected OOC RPI:	218
Expected OOC SOS:	198

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
9-18	260.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Troy.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Texas Tech (241.0)	B12	A	90-85	L	0%
11-19	East Tennessee St. (179.0)	ASun	A	81-71	L	0%
11-22	UAB (112.0)	CUSA	A	71-59	L	0%
11-26	Southern Utah (232.0)	Sum	A	76-80	W	100%
11-29	East Tennessee St. (179.0)	ASun	H	79-71	W	100%
12-3	Miami OH (247.0)	MAC	H	73-60	W	100%
12-10	Mississippi St. (75.0)	SEC	A	106-68	L	0%
12-15	Belmont (58.0)	ASun	A	78-55	L	0%
12-20	Southern Utah (232.0)	Sum	H	80-72	W	100%
12-22	Texas San Antonio (196.0)	Slnd	H	70-76	L	0%
12-29	Denver (94.0)	SB	A	79-62	L	0%
12-31	North Texas (200.0)	SB	A	87-65	L	0%
1-5	Middle Tennessee (56.0)	SB	H	53-63	L	0%
1-7	Western Kentucky (189.0)	SB	A	65-67	W	100%
1-14	South Alabama (169.0)	SB	H	60-75	L	0%
1-19	Florida Atlantic (207.0)	SB	H	67-88	L	0%
1-21	Louisiana Monroe (317.0)	SB	H	91-63	W	100%
1-26	Middle Tennessee (56.0)	SB	A	71-58	L	0%
1-29	South Alabama (169.0)	SB	A	68-66	L	0%
2-2	Florida International (251.0)	SB	H	50-63	L	0%
2-4	Louisiana Lafayette (185.0)	SB	H	78-83	L	0%
2-11	Western Kentucky (189.0)	SB	H	83-77	W	100%
2-16	Arkansas St. (222.0)	SB	A	83-59	L	0%
2-18	Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)	SB	H	62-74	L	0%
2-23	Florida International (251.0)	SB	A	70-75	W	100%
2-25	Florida Atlantic (207.0)	SB	A	82-83	W	100%
3-3	South Alabama (169.0)	SB	N	87-81	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Troy's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Troy's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Troy.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Troy	SB	26.41	26.41	33.86	33.86	-8.53	-8.53
South Alabama	SB	6.32	6.32	52.00	52.00	0.25	0.25
Western Kentucky	SB	4.63	4.63	48.39	48.39	-0.15	-0.15
Middle Tennessee	SB	4.57	4.57	78.57	78.57	2.61	2.61
Florida Atlantic	SB	4.51	4.51	33.33	33.33	-1.50	-1.50
Florida International	SB	4.51	4.51	26.92	26.92	-2.08	-2.08
East Tennessee St.	ASun	3.79	3.79	53.57	53.57	0.27	0.27
Southern Utah	Sum	3.70	3.70	44.44	44.44	-0.41	-0.41
North Texas	SB	2.68	2.68	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	2.67	2.67	37.50	37.50	-0.67	-0.67
Denver	SB	2.66	2.66	70.00	70.00	1.07	1.07
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	2.56	2.56	44.83	44.83	-0.27	-0.27
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	2.54	2.54	48.28	48.28	-0.09	-0.09
Louisiana Monroe	SB	2.53	2.53	11.11	11.11	-1.97	-1.97
Belmont	ASun	2.19	2.19	78.12	78.12	1.23	1.23
Mississippi St.	SEC	2.08	2.08	64.52	64.52	0.60	0.60
UAB	CUSA	2.01	2.01	46.67	46.67	-0.13	-0.13
Texas Tech	B12	1.88	1.88	23.33	23.33	-1.00	-1.00
Miami OH	MAC	1.88	1.88	28.57	28.57	-0.81	-0.81
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	1.85	1.85	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.29	0.29	81.82	81.82	0.18	0.18
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.25	0.25	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
North Florida	ASun	0.24	0.24	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.24	0.24	26.67	26.67	-0.11	-0.11
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.22	0.22	20.00	20.00	-0.13	-0.13
Bowling Green	MAC	0.22	0.22	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.21	0.21	40.00	40.00	-0.04	-0.04
Austin Peay	OVC	0.21	0.21	35.48	35.48	-0.06	-0.06
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.21	0.21	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.19	0.19	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.19	0.19	78.12	78.12	0.11	0.11
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.19	0.19	74.19	74.19	0.09	0.09
Mississippi	SEC	0.18	0.18	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.18	0.18	6.67	6.67	-0.16	-0.16
Lipscomb	ASun	0.18	0.18	40.00	40.00	-0.04	-0.04
Mercer	ASun	0.18	0.18	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.18	0.18	60.00	60.00	0.04	0.04
Stetson	ASun	0.18	0.18	28.57	28.57	-0.08	-0.08
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.18	0.18	60.00	60.00	0.04	0.04
Georgia St.	CAA	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.16	0.16	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.16	0.16	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.15	0.15	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Akron	MAC	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Kent St.	MAC	0.15	0.15	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.15	0.15	34.62	34.62	-0.05	-0.05
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.15	0.15	6.90	6.90	-0.13	-0.13
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.14	0.14	82.35	82.35	0.09	0.09
George Mason	CAA	0.13	0.13	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.13	0.13	19.23	19.23	-0.08	-0.08
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.13	0.13	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.13	0.13	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.13	0.13	29.63	29.63	-0.05	-0.05
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.13	0.13	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
South Dakota	Sum	0.13	0.13	28.00	28.00	-0.06	-0.06
UC Davis	BW	0.13	0.13	13.33	13.33	-0.09	-0.09
Western Illinois	Sum	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.12	0.12	81.82	81.82	0.08	0.08
Appalachian St.	SC	0.12	0.12	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Utah St.	WAC	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.12	0.12	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Texas A&M	B12	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.12	0.12	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.12	0.12	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	96.43	96.43	0.11	0.11
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Florida St.	ACC	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Georgia Southern	SC	0.10	0.10	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.09	0.09	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.09	0.09	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.09	0.09	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Texas	B12	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Baylor	B12	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Memphis	CUSA	0.09	0.09	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
Louisville	BE	0.08	0.08	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.07	0.07	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
American	Pat	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.06	0.06	6.67	6.67	-0.06	-0.06
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.06	64.29	64.29	0.02	0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.06	0.06	86.21	86.21	0.05	0.05
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Siena	MAAC	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	BE	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Washington	P12	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	78.57	78.57	0.04	0.04
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Charlotte	A10	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
NC Greensboro	SC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	34.62	34.62	-0.02	-0.02
UCLA	P12	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.06	0.06	94.12	94.12	0.05	0.05
East Carolina	CUSA	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Missouri	B12	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
Oklahoma	B12	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Florida	SEC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Furman	SC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Seattle	ind	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	16.13	16.13	-0.02	-0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.03	0.03	67.86	67.86	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fresno St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.93	25.93	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	11.11	11.11	-0.02	-0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
San Jose St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.03	0.03	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
California	P12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.03	0.03	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
St. Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	83.33	83.33	0.02	0.02
Texas Christian	MWC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	83.87	83.87	0.02	0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	3.12	3.12	-0.03	-0.03