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Through games of Feb 13, 2016.


Troy

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:292.4
Current RPI:292
Expected SOS:217
Current SOS:201
Current Record:6-17
Expected Record:8-21
Current Conf Record:3-11
Expected Conf Record:5-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-10
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:263
Expected OOC SOS:266



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-18246.80.59%
10-19261.04.97%
9-20275.716.79%
8-21289.132.58%
7-22301.432.10%
6-23314.212.96%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Troy.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13South Florida (244.1)AmerA77-82W100%0.0
11-19UAB (95.0)CUSAH63-79L0%0.0
11-23Samford (258.2)SCN79-83L0%0.0
11-24Idaho (215.5)BSkyN69-63L0%0.0
11-25North Texas (299.7)CUSAA74-86W100%0.0
12-1Southern Miss (298.6)CUSAH69-59W100%0.0
12-5Austin Peay (239.3)OVCH71-80L0%0.0
12-10Seton Hall (54.6)BEA78-69L0%0.0
12-22Mississippi (103.3)SECA83-80L0%0.0
12-30Arkansas St. (246.5)SBH81-84L0%0.0
1-2Arkansas Little Rock (50.8)SBH61-67L0%0.0
1-7Georgia St. (171.0)SBA72-68L0%0.0
1-9Georgia Southern (243.5)SBA93-88L0%0.0
1-14UT Arlington (97.2)SBH63-90L0%0.0
1-16Texas St. (276.3)SBH66-57W100%0.0
1-21Louisiana Monroe (155.4)SBA85-74L0%0.0
1-23Louisiana Lafayette (112.9)SBA88-65L0%0.0
1-26South Alabama (241.9)SBH58-66L0%0.0
1-28Appalachian St. (266.4)SBH71-75L0%0.0
2-4Arkansas Little Rock (50.8)SBA72-49L0%0.0
2-6Arkansas St. (246.5)SBA70-71W100%0.0
2-11Georgia Southern (243.5)SBH71-77L0%0.0
2-13Georgia St. (171.0)SBH54-53W100%0.0
2-16South Alabama (241.9)SBA0-037%-3.5
2-20Appalachian St. (266.4)SBA0-036%-3.9
2-25Louisiana Lafayette (112.9)SBH0-022%-8.3
2-27Louisiana Monroe (155.4)SBH0-037%-3.5
3-3Texas St. (276.3)SBA0-033%-4.7
3-5UT Arlington (97.2)SBA0-05%-17.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Troy's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Troy's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Troy.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TroySB26.4826.4725.6427.28-12.90-12.03
Georgia St.SB5.214.6252.6351.520.270.14
South AlabamaSB3.294.6036.3634.68-0.90-1.41
UT ArlingtonSB3.104.5768.1869.991.131.83
Arkansas Little RockSB5.134.5785.7184.983.663.20
Georgia SouthernSB5.124.5635.0035.24-1.54-1.35
Appalachian St.SB3.014.5520.8323.81-1.76-2.38
Arkansas St.SB5.084.5438.1037.24-1.21-1.16
Louisiana MonroeSB3.094.5445.4547.40-0.28-0.24
Louisiana LafayetteSB3.084.5355.0057.950.310.72
Texas St.SB3.054.5342.1139.23-0.48-0.98
Southern MissCUSA2.421.9430.0031.51-0.97-0.72
North TexasCUSA2.401.9331.8232.76-0.87-0.67
MississippiSEC2.421.8862.5059.740.610.37
UABCUSA2.421.8879.1777.251.411.02
SamfordSC2.361.8736.0038.11-0.66-0.45
IdahoBSky2.361.8456.5255.270.310.19
South FloridaAmer2.261.7820.8320.40-1.32-1.05
Seton HallBE2.261.7869.5766.970.880.60
Austin PeayOVC2.221.7536.0038.58-0.62-0.40
Louisiana TechCUSA0.340.3073.9172.350.160.13
RiceCUSA0.280.2730.4332.18-0.11-0.10
UTEPCUSA0.240.2456.0055.750.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.290.2469.5769.090.110.09
UTSACUSA0.200.1912.5012.74-0.15-0.14
Old DominionCUSA0.250.1856.0059.610.030.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.280.1823.8129.48-0.15-0.07
CharlotteCUSA0.190.1840.0043.15-0.04-0.02
MemphisAmer0.190.1756.0056.660.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.240.1540.9141.22-0.04-0.03
AuburnSEC0.190.1537.5034.54-0.05-0.05
TulaneAmer0.180.1438.4637.32-0.04-0.04
TexasB120.130.1464.0061.080.040.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.1321.0529.38-0.06-0.05
AlabamaSEC0.150.1262.5059.270.040.02
IUPUISum0.150.1238.4638.52-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.140.1272.7371.580.060.05
The CitadelSC0.180.1229.1729.25-0.08-0.05
FIUCUSA0.100.1241.6743.11-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1225.0026.16-0.05-0.06
MarshallCUSA0.090.1252.0052.860.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.1243.4844.22-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.090.1284.0085.050.060.08
Northern ArizonaBSky0.190.129.0911.96-0.15-0.09
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.140.1220.0022.33-0.08-0.07
Tennessee MartinOVC0.180.1252.0052.460.010.01
DePaulBE0.140.1233.3333.86-0.05-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.090.1240.0039.42-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.130.1257.6956.200.020.01
HamptonMEAC0.090.1259.0961.340.020.03
HoustonAmer0.130.1272.0068.870.060.04
MercerSC0.130.1264.0065.380.040.04
MissouriSEC0.140.1236.0032.69-0.04-0.04
BradleyMVC0.140.1112.0012.00-0.10-0.09
Washington St.P120.100.0934.7831.61-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.150.0947.8352.95-0.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.150.0958.3358.450.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.140.0925.0024.15-0.07-0.05
BelmontOVC0.090.0965.3865.160.030.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.130.0926.0925.94-0.06-0.04
WoffordSC0.130.0948.0048.31-0.01-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.130.0923.0823.73-0.07-0.05
LSUSEC0.090.0964.0061.350.030.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0952.0049.600.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.0922.2228.35-0.05-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0912.5014.81-0.06-0.06
TulsaAmer0.090.0964.0064.280.030.02
CreightonBE0.140.0965.3863.470.040.02
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0860.8757.660.020.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0873.6876.550.040.04
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0845.8346.51-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0682.6177.560.030.04
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0626.3232.38-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.050.0660.0062.090.010.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0613.0418.03-0.04-0.04
UCLAP120.050.0654.1753.010.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0613.6414.93-0.04-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.100.0656.0057.240.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0654.1755.060.010.01
DukeACC0.100.0676.0073.090.050.03
StetsonASun0.100.0621.7425.66-0.06-0.03
WinthropBSth0.100.0668.1865.870.040.02
BaylorB120.090.0670.8365.330.040.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0668.1868.210.030.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0642.3144.54-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.050.0650.0048.570.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0658.3358.870.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0637.5038.17-0.02-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0656.5256.100.010.01
IPFWSum0.080.0672.0069.300.040.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0662.5059.800.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0625.0027.21-0.02-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.040.0650.0051.470.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.090.0642.8646.51-0.01-0.00
OregonP120.090.0676.0074.790.050.03
Penn St.B100.050.0648.0045.86-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.050.0628.5735.58-0.02-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0638.1043.56-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0670.8370.070.040.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0674.0773.100.050.03
Southern UtahBSky0.090.0613.6414.63-0.07-0.04
Texas TechB120.090.0662.5058.360.020.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.040.0626.0928.44-0.02-0.03
VMISC0.040.0619.0519.66-0.03-0.04
West VirginiaB120.050.0680.0078.490.030.03
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0634.7836.09-0.03-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0660.0060.860.020.01
ButlerBE0.050.0668.0066.750.020.02
FordhamA100.050.0650.0050.420.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0653.8551.690.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0614.2917.11-0.03-0.04
MarquetteBE0.090.0661.5456.600.020.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0661.5455.940.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0673.0870.170.020.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0624.0023.69-0.02-0.03
VillanovaBE0.090.0688.0086.620.070.04
XavierBE0.050.0688.0084.240.030.04
George WashingtonA100.090.0672.0070.430.040.02
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0673.0871.580.040.02
FloridaSEC0.090.0664.0062.910.020.01
HofstraCAA0.040.0668.0067.350.020.02
KentuckySEC0.090.0676.0074.450.050.03
LibertyBSth0.040.0637.5038.73-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0641.6741.41-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.040.0683.3378.350.030.03
SMUAmer0.090.0687.5084.290.070.04
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0683.3378.690.060.03
TempleAmer0.040.0665.2262.390.010.01
UCFAmer0.090.0647.8343.65-0.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.040.0331.8236.10-0.02-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.040.0348.1547.52-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.040.0323.8124.32-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0350.0049.580.00-0.00
IndianaB100.040.0380.0075.820.030.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.040.0328.0028.34-0.02-0.01
LipscombASun0.040.0330.7732.74-0.02-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.040.0376.0073.910.020.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0319.2321.27-0.03-0.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0361.9062.900.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0345.8345.02-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.040.0353.8551.650.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0317.3920.09-0.03-0.02
North FloridaASun0.040.0360.0061.790.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0361.9060.140.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0357.6958.590.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0347.6250.56-0.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0322.7322.58-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.040.0369.5767.210.020.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.040.0366.6764.740.010.01
UC DavisBW0.050.0336.3634.16-0.01-0.01
USCP120.050.0375.0071.170.020.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0368.1870.090.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.040.0331.8236.20-0.02-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0333.3332.89-0.02-0.01
IllinoisB100.040.0344.0043.45-0.01-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.040.0356.0054.070.010.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0350.0053.010.000.00
RutgersB100.050.0320.8319.90-0.03-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0343.4844.13-0.01-0.00
SeattleWAC0.040.0345.4544.05-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.040.0352.0048.970.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.050.0362.5063.810.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0370.8373.510.020.01
AlbanyAE0.040.0373.0873.780.020.01
ArkansasSEC0.040.0348.0050.99-0.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.040.0357.6958.190.010.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0372.0070.630.000.01
DelawareCAA0.040.0324.0024.18-0.02-0.01
George MasonA100.040.0336.0035.97-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.040.0356.0054.680.010.00
MassachusettsA100.040.0343.4842.31-0.01-0.00
NJITASun0.040.0357.6957.310.010.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0348.0045.69-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0372.0072.950.000.01
TowsonCAA0.040.0364.0060.170.010.01