Troy

Conference:	SB
Expected RPI:	279.0
Current RPI:	279
Expected SOS:	238
Current SOS:	238
Current Record:	12-21
Expected Record:	12-21
Current Conf Record:	7-15
Expected Conf Record:	7-15
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-8
Current OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC RPI:	276
Expected OOC SOS:	319

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-21	279.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Troy.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Mississippi St. (232.0)	SEC	H	56-53	W	100%
11-12	Texas A&M (102.0)	SEC	A	83-65	L	0%
11-18	Louisiana Tech (53.0)	WAC	N	46-70	L	0%
11-19	Chattanooga (292.0)	SC	A	61-68	W	100%
11-20	Southeast Missouri St. (216.0)	OVC	N	56-59	W	100%
11-25	Alabama St. (328.0)	SWAC	H	66-62	W	100%
11-27	UAB (144.0)	CUSA	H	55-75	L	0%
11-29	Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)	SB	A	58-56	L	0%
12-1	Western Kentucky (150.0)	SB	H	71-75	L	0%
12-8	Utah Valley (297.0)	GWC	H	82-86	L	0%
12-13	Alabama St. (328.0)	SWAC	A	74-68	L	0%
12-15	Georgia St. (209.0)	CAA	H	57-56	W	100%
12-19	Utah Valley (297.0)	GWC	A	67-64	L	0%
12-27	Florida Atlantic (218.0)	SB	H	54-61	L	0%
1-3	North Texas (247.0)	SB	A	76-59	L	0%
1-5	Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)	SB	H	67-64	W	100%
1-10	Louisiana Monroe (305.0)	SB	H	64-55	W	100%
1-17	Florida Atlantic (218.0)	SB	A	80-59	L	0%
1-19	Florida International (111.0)	SB	A	61-55	L	0%
1-24	Arkansas St. (163.0)	SB	H	74-67	W	100%
1-26	Louisiana Monroe (305.0)	SB	A	64-71	W	100%
1-31	Western Kentucky (150.0)	SB	A	65-61	L	0%
2-2	Louisiana Lafayette (221.0)	SB	H	71-52	W	100%
2-7	South Alabama (154.0)	SB	A	65-62	L	0%
2-9	Middle Tennessee (28.0)	SB	A	93-41	L	0%
2-14	Florida International (111.0)	SB	H	69-61	W	100%
2-16	North Texas (247.0)	SB	H	61-63	L	0%
2-21	Louisiana Lafayette (221.0)	SB	A	76-66	L	0%
2-23	Arkansas St. (163.0)	SB	A	58-50	L	0%
2-28	Middle Tennessee (28.0)	SB	H	56-66	L	0%
3-2	South Alabama (154.0)	SB	H	49-53	L	0%
3-8	Florida Atlantic (218.0)	SB	N	79-81	W	100%
3-9	Arkansas St. (163.0)	SB	N	68-63	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Troy's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Troy's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Troy.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Troy	SB	26.61	26.61	33.57	33.57	-8.75	-8.75
Arkansas St.	SB	5.53	5.53	59.26	59.26	1.02	1.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	5.51	5.51	39.29	39.29	-1.18	-1.18
Western Kentucky	SB	4.26	4.26	53.12	53.12	0.27	0.27
Middle Tennessee	SB	4.19	4.19	83.87	83.87	2.84	2.84
Florida International	SB	4.16	4.16	56.67	56.67	0.56	0.56
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	4.12	4.12	36.67	36.67	-1.10	-1.10
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	4.12	4.12	51.72	51.72	0.14	0.14
South Alabama	SB	4.10	4.10	53.85	53.85	0.32	0.32
Louisiana Monroe	SB	4.10	4.10	16.00	16.00	-2.79	-2.79
North Texas	SB	4.06	4.06	32.14	32.14	-1.45	-1.45
Alabama St.	SWAC	3.08	3.08	27.59	27.59	-1.38	-1.38
Utah Valley	GWC	3.06	3.06	30.77	30.77	-1.18	-1.18
Louisiana Tech	WAC	1.77	1.77	80.00	80.00	1.06	1.06
UAB	CUSA	1.67	1.67	45.16	45.16	-0.16	-0.16
Chattanooga	SC	1.62	1.62	37.93	37.93	-0.39	-0.39
Mississippi St.	SEC	1.61	1.61	32.26	32.26	-0.57	-0.57
Georgia St.	CAA	1.59	1.59	48.28	48.28	-0.05	-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	1.56	1.56	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	1.56	1.56	53.12	53.12	0.10	0.10
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.24	0.24	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.22	0.22	20.69	20.69	-0.13	-0.13
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.20	0.20	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Stetson	ASun	0.19	0.19	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.19	0.19	76.47	76.47	0.10	0.10
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.19	0.19	39.29	39.29	-0.04	-0.04
Southern	SWAC	0.18	0.18	68.97	68.97	0.07	0.07
Lamar	Slnd	0.17	0.17	9.68	9.68	-0.14	-0.14
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.17	0.17	25.00	25.00	-0.09	-0.09
Dayton	A10	0.17	0.17	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.17	0.17	65.52	65.52	0.05	0.05
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.17	0.17	71.88	71.88	0.07	0.07
Florida	SEC	0.17	0.17	78.79	78.79	0.10	0.10
Chicago St.	GWC	0.16	0.16	25.00	25.00	-0.08	-0.08
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.16	0.16	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.16	0.16	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.15	0.15	69.70	69.70	0.06	0.06
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.15	0.15	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.15	0.15	13.33	13.33	-0.11	-0.11
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.14	0.14	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.14	0.14	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.14	0.14	62.07	62.07	0.03	0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.12	0.12	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Elon	SC	0.12	0.12	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.12	0.12	19.35	19.35	-0.08	-0.08
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.12	0.12	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.12	0.12	28.12	28.12	-0.05	-0.05
North Carolina	ACC	0.12	0.12	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.12	0.12	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.11	0.11	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.11	0.11	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.11	0.11	67.86	67.86	0.04	0.04
Pepperdine	WCC	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Utah St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.10	0.10	0.00	0.00	-0.10	-0.10
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	17.86	17.86	-0.06	-0.06
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.10	0.10	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.10	0.10	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.09	0.09	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Houston	CUSA	0.09	0.09	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.09	0.09	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Louisville	BE	0.09	0.09	85.29	85.29	0.06	0.06
Monmouth	NEC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Oklahoma	B12	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.08	0.08	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.08	0.08	17.86	17.86	-0.05	-0.05
Washington St.	P12	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Kent St.	MAC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Georgia Southern	SC	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.07	0.07	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.07	0.07	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
American	Pat	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.07	0.07	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
East Carolina	CUSA	0.07	0.07	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
New Orleans	ind	0.07	0.07	18.18	18.18	-0.05	-0.05
Tulsa	CUSA	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.07	0.07	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Alabama	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.07	0.07	85.19	85.19	0.05	0.05
Tennessee	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.07	0.07	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	21.43	21.43	-0.03	-0.03
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Denver	WAC	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Idaho	WAC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	28.00	28.00	-0.02	-0.02
Texas St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	70.37	70.37	0.02	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.05	0.05	42.31	42.31	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
DePaul	BE	0.04	0.04	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.04	0.04	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.04	0.04	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.04	0.04	76.47	76.47	0.02	0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.00	10.00	-0.02	-0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.02	0.02	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.02	0.02	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.02	0.02	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.02	0.02	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Texas	B12	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Christian	B12	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Army	Pat	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00