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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Troy

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:293.0
Current RPI:293
Expected SOS:192
Current SOS:192
Current Record:7-22
Expected Record:7-22
Current Conf Record:4-16
Expected Conf Record:4-16
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-8
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:229
Expected OOC SOS:202



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-22293.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Troy.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13South Florida (230.0)AmerA77-82W100%0.0
11-19UAB (88.0)CUSAH63-79L0%0.0
11-23Samford (252.0)SCN79-83L0%0.0
11-24Idaho (191.0)BSkyN69-63L0%0.0
11-25North Texas (295.0)CUSAA74-86W100%0.0
12-1Southern Miss (314.0)CUSAH69-59W100%0.0
12-5Austin Peay (184.0)OVCH71-80L0%0.0
12-10Seton Hall (19.0)BEA78-69L0%0.0
12-22Mississippi (96.0)SECA83-80L0%0.0
12-30Arkansas St. (285.0)SBH81-84L0%0.0
1-2Arkansas Little Rock (42.0)SBH61-67L0%0.0
1-7Georgia St. (180.0)SBA72-68L0%0.0
1-9Georgia Southern (243.0)SBA93-88L0%0.0
1-14UT Arlington (105.0)SBH63-90L0%0.0
1-16Texas St. (238.0)SBH66-57W100%0.0
1-21Louisiana Monroe (95.0)SBA85-74L0%0.0
1-23Louisiana Lafayette (157.0)SBA88-65L0%0.0
1-26South Alabama (240.0)SBH58-66L0%0.0
1-28Appalachian St. (259.0)SBH71-75L0%0.0
2-4Arkansas Little Rock (42.0)SBA72-49L0%0.0
2-6Arkansas St. (285.0)SBA70-71W100%0.0
2-11Georgia Southern (243.0)SBH71-77L0%0.0
2-13Georgia St. (180.0)SBH54-53W100%0.0
2-16South Alabama (240.0)SBA54-61W100%0.0
2-20Appalachian St. (259.0)SBA78-74L0%0.0
2-25Louisiana Lafayette (157.0)SBH63-73L0%0.0
2-27Louisiana Monroe (95.0)SBH51-66L0%0.0
3-3Texas St. (238.0)SBA78-57L0%0.0
3-5UT Arlington (105.0)SBA90-55L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Troy's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Troy's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Troy.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TroySB26.4026.4025.1725.17-13.11-13.11
South AlabamaSB4.674.6737.9337.93-1.13-1.13
UT ArlingtonSB4.644.6466.6766.671.551.55
Arkansas Little RockSB4.634.6386.2186.213.353.35
Georgia St.SB4.624.6250.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB4.604.6055.1755.170.480.48
Texas St.SB4.604.6044.4444.44-0.51-0.51
Louisiana LafayetteSB4.594.5948.1548.15-0.17-0.17
Georgia SouthernSB4.564.5637.0437.04-1.18-1.18
Appalachian St.SB4.494.4924.1424.14-2.32-2.32
Arkansas St.SB4.484.4829.6329.63-1.83-1.83
Southern MissCUSA1.931.9326.9226.92-0.89-0.89
North TexasCUSA1.931.9334.4834.48-0.60-0.60
UABCUSA1.871.8780.0080.001.121.12
MississippiSEC1.871.8761.2961.290.420.42
SamfordSC1.861.8636.6736.67-0.50-0.50
IdahoBSky1.841.8460.0060.000.370.37
South FloridaAmer1.781.7825.0025.00-0.89-0.89
Seton HallBE1.781.7875.0075.000.890.89
Austin PeayOVC1.751.7546.8846.88-0.11-0.11
Louisiana TechCUSA0.290.2970.0070.000.120.12
RiceCUSA0.260.2633.3333.33-0.09-0.09
UTEPCUSA0.230.2356.2556.250.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.230.2370.9770.970.100.10
UTSACUSA0.180.1813.3313.33-0.13-0.13
Old DominionCUSA0.180.1862.8662.860.050.05
CharlotteCUSA0.170.1742.4242.42-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.170.1725.0025.00-0.09-0.09
MemphisAmer0.160.1655.8855.880.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.150.1548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
TulaneAmer0.140.1435.2935.29-0.04-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.140.1484.3884.380.100.10
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
TexasB120.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.120.1226.9226.92-0.05-0.05
IUPUISum0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.120.1222.5822.58-0.06-0.06
MarshallCUSA0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
The CitadelSC0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
MissouriSEC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.1121.4321.43-0.06-0.06
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.110.1176.6776.670.060.06
FurmanSC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
MercerSC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.110.1110.7110.71-0.09-0.09
BelmontOVC0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
DePaulBE0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
HoustonAmer0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
CreightonBE0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
BradleyMVC0.110.1112.9012.90-0.08-0.08
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Washington St.P120.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0882.1482.140.050.05
VMISC0.080.0822.2222.22-0.05-0.05
LSUSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0820.8320.83-0.05-0.05
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
TulsaAmer0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
WoffordSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0811.1111.11-0.06-0.06
TempleAmer0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
VillanovaBE0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
XavierBE0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
Wright St.Horz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
BaylorB120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
DukeACC0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Miami FLACC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
PepperdineWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0618.5218.52-0.04-0.04
WinthropBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0672.4172.410.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
HofstraCAA0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
LibertyBSth0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
MontanaBSky0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.060.0682.3582.350.040.04
North DakotaBSky0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Texas TechB120.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
FordhamA100.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
St. John'sBE0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0322.8622.86-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
USCP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
George MasonA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
LipscombASun0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
NJITASun0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01