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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Troy

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:147.0
Current RPI:147
Expected SOS:230
Current SOS:230
Current Record:20-14
Expected Record:20-14
Current Conf Record:14-8
Expected Conf Record:14-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-5
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:272
Expected OOC SOS:344



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-14147.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Troy.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Eastern Illinois (265.0)OVCH70-67W100%0.0
11-17UAB (201.0)CUSAA74-51L0%0.0
11-21Eastern Illinois (265.0)OVCA71-67L0%0.0
11-23San Francisco (94.0)WCCA79-67L0%0.0
11-25Hawaii (300.0)BWA63-65W100%0.0
12-1South Florida (316.0)AmerH74-80L0%0.0
12-4Alabama St. (342.0)SWACH83-65W100%0.0
12-10Alabama A&M (351.0)SWACH88-59W100%0.0
12-17USC (40.0)P12A82-77L0%0.0
12-19Wyoming (152.0)MWCA72-66L0%0.0
12-22Cornell (270.0)IvyN84-92W100%0.0
12-23Chicago St. (318.0)WACN83-65W100%0.0
1-2South Alabama (231.0)SBA76-75L0%0.0
1-7Georgia Southern (121.0)SBA86-82L0%0.0
1-9Georgia St. (104.0)SBA77-80W100%0.0
1-14UT Arlington (45.0)SBH93-71W100%0.0
1-16Texas St. (179.0)SBH71-75L0%0.0
1-21Arkansas St. (119.0)SBA82-80L0%0.0
1-23Little Rock (243.0)SBA69-78W100%0.0
1-28Georgia St. (104.0)SBH72-78L0%0.0
1-30Georgia Southern (121.0)SBH83-76W100%0.0
2-4South Alabama (231.0)SBH71-76L0%0.0
2-11Louisiana Lafayette (114.0)SBA88-100W100%0.0
2-13Louisiana Monroe (298.0)SBA72-73W100%0.0
2-18Coastal Carolina (183.0)SBH87-78W100%0.0
2-20Appalachian St. (301.0)SBH76-66W100%0.0
2-25Texas St. (179.0)SBA63-59L0%0.0
2-27UT Arlington (45.0)SBA82-67L0%0.0
3-2Arkansas St. (119.0)SBH81-72W100%0.0
3-4Little Rock (243.0)SBH57-54W100%0.0
3-8Appalachian St. (301.0)SBN84-64W100%0.0
3-10Georgia Southern (121.0)SBN70-90W100%0.0
3-11Georgia St. (104.0)SBN63-74W100%0.0
3-12Texas St. (179.0)SBN53-59W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Troy's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Troy's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Troy.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TroySB26.5726.5761.3361.336.026.02
Texas St.SB5.195.1957.1457.140.740.74
Georgia St.SB5.175.1762.9662.961.341.34
Georgia SouthernSB5.125.1255.5655.560.570.57
South AlabamaSB3.873.8735.7135.71-1.10-1.10
Appalachian St.SB3.813.8126.9226.92-1.76-1.76
UT ArlingtonSB3.773.7775.8675.861.951.95
Arkansas St.SB3.673.6762.0762.070.890.89
Little RockSB3.673.6746.4346.43-0.26-0.26
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.992.9944.0044.00-0.36-0.36
Coastal CarolinaSB2.492.4946.6746.67-0.17-0.17
Louisiana LafayetteSB2.492.4963.3363.330.660.66
Louisiana MonroeSB2.492.4923.3323.33-1.33-1.33
Alabama A&MSWAC1.621.627.147.14-1.39-1.39
HawaiiBW1.541.5446.4346.43-0.11-0.11
USCP121.521.5271.8871.880.670.67
Alabama St.SWAC1.521.5224.1424.14-0.79-0.79
WyomingMWC1.521.5251.7251.720.050.05
CornellIvy1.521.5225.9325.93-0.73-0.73
UABCUSA1.501.5048.3948.39-0.05-0.05
Chicago St.WAC1.471.4710.7110.71-1.16-1.16
San FranciscoWCC1.471.4760.0060.000.290.29
South FloridaAmer1.471.4720.6920.69-0.86-0.86
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.250.2517.8617.86-0.16-0.16
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.200.2020.0020.00-0.12-0.12
Texas SouthernSWAC0.200.2067.6567.650.070.07
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.190.1976.6776.670.100.10
MinnesotaB100.190.1972.7372.730.090.09
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.170.1735.4835.48-0.05-0.05
TulsaAmer0.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.170.1717.2417.24-0.11-0.11
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.170.1787.8887.880.130.13
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.170.1728.5728.57-0.07-0.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.160.1641.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.150.1525.0025.00-0.07-0.07
PepperdineWCC0.140.1426.6726.67-0.07-0.07
Murray St.OVC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.130.1323.0823.08-0.07-0.07
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
BradleyMVC0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
AuburnSEC0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
TulaneAmer0.120.1219.3519.35-0.07-0.07
Saint Mary'sWCC0.120.1287.5087.500.090.09
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1021.8821.88-0.06-0.06
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1017.8617.86-0.06-0.06
UNLVMWC0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.100.1018.5218.52-0.06-0.06
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0958.6258.620.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0919.2319.23-0.06-0.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
TexasB120.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
MissouriSEC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Saint LouisA100.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.080.0878.5778.570.040.04
James MadisonCAA0.080.0828.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
SeattleWAC0.070.0737.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
AkronMAC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
MassachusettsA100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
NJITASun0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
RadfordBSth0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0740.7440.74-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.070.0780.0080.000.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
MemphisAmer0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
PacificWCC0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
UtahP120.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
MontanaBSky0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0760.7160.710.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.070.0787.8887.880.050.05
WashingtonP120.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
BrownIvy0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
DukeACC0.050.0577.1477.140.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0561.5461.540.010.01
PennIvy0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
YaleIvy0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
UC DavisBW0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
IdahoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
StetsonASun0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UCFAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
ArmyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0596.9796.970.040.04
LehighPat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
ColoradoP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
ArizonaP120.040.0488.2488.240.030.03
Arizona St.P120.040.0445.4545.45-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.040.0484.8584.850.030.03
Oregon St.P120.040.0412.9012.90-0.03-0.03
Washington St.P120.040.0440.0040.00-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
NevadaMWC0.020.0282.3582.350.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.020.0236.0036.00-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
LamarSlnd0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0236.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
VCUA100.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
WoffordSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
KansasB120.020.0287.5087.500.020.02
RiceCUSA0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
StanfordP120.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00