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Through games of Nov 25, 2014.


Troy

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:253.6
Current RPI:295
Expected SOS:263
Current SOS:162
Current Record:0-3
Expected Record:12-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-5
Current OOC Record:0-3
Expected OOC Record:3-4
Expected OOC RPI:322
Expected OOC SOS:345



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-8114.70.09%
18-9124.50.26%
17-10146.10.98%
16-11164.02.84%
15-12183.25.45%
14-13204.69.48%
13-14226.013.49%
12-15247.117.47%
11-16266.216.63%
10-17284.513.89%
9-18301.110.04%
8-19314.15.72%
7-20324.72.47%
6-21334.40.79%
5-22339.70.28%
4-23343.20.11%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Troy.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Mississippi (99.5)SECH64-74L0%0.0
11-21Georgia (78.8)SECA82-60L0%0.0
11-25Southern Miss (155.8)CUSAA72-70L0%0.0
12-2Alcorn St. (314.8)SWACH0-080%10.2
12-6Central Arkansas (331.7)SlndH0-083%11.4
12-15Austin Peay (300.8)OVCA0-047%-1.0
12-21Nicholls St. (296.5)SlndA0-055%1.4
12-30Texas St. (209.9)SBH0-061%3.2
1-3Louisiana Lafayette (185.7)SBA0-027%-7.3
1-5UT Arlington (160.4)SBH0-053%0.9
1-10Georgia St. (88.9)SBA0-014%-12.9
1-15Louisiana Monroe (108.0)SBA0-019%-10.6
1-17Georgia Southern (192.2)SBH0-055%1.5
1-19Appalachian St. (302.8)SBH0-081%10.3
1-22Arkansas Little Rock (186.4)SBA0-031%-5.8
1-24Arkansas St. (276.4)SBH0-067%5.1
1-29Louisiana Monroe (108.0)SBH0-039%-3.4
1-31UT Arlington (160.4)SBA0-030%-6.3
2-5Arkansas St. (276.4)SBA0-043%-2.0
2-7Appalachian St. (302.8)SBA0-060%3.1
2-12South Alabama (235.3)SBH0-063%3.9
2-14Louisiana Lafayette (185.7)SBH0-050%-0.1
2-19Georgia Southern (192.2)SBA0-032%-5.7
2-21Arkansas Little Rock (186.4)SBH0-054%1.3
2-26Texas St. (209.9)SBA0-037%-4.0
2-28Georgia St. (88.9)SBH0-032%-5.7
3-7South Alabama (235.3)SBA0-039%-3.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Troy's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Troy's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Troy.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TroySB31.9426.570.0042.66-31.94-3.90
Georgia St.SB0.004.9550.0066.340.001.62
South AlabamaSB2.784.940.0037.88-2.78-1.20
Arkansas Little RockSB0.004.9366.6751.120.000.11
Arkansas St.SB0.004.930.0033.49-0.00-1.63
Appalachian St.SB0.004.9150.0025.240.00-2.43
UT ArlingtonSB0.004.9160.0051.480.000.15
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.004.9025.0050.97-0.000.09
Texas St.SB0.004.8966.6745.750.00-0.42
Georgia SouthernSB0.004.8950.0050.020.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.004.8950.0063.860.001.36
Central ArkansasSlnd0.002.060.0023.33-0.00-1.10
Southern MissCUSA16.671.9850.0048.860.00-0.05
MississippiSEC16.671.9566.6751.105.560.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.001.920.0031.15-0.00-0.72
GeorgiaSEC16.671.9166.6754.245.560.16
Austin PeayOVC0.001.880.0031.56-0.00-0.69
Alcorn St.SWAC0.001.850.0033.49-0.00-0.61
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.280.0047.30-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.2125.0037.60-0.00-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.200.0046.74-0.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.1966.6769.740.000.07
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1780.0070.940.000.07
TexasB120.000.17100.0080.120.000.10
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1720.0043.52-0.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.1666.6771.550.000.07
AlabamaSEC2.780.1680.0058.991.670.03
AuburnSEC0.000.1650.0035.490.00-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.16100.0047.350.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.16100.0089.550.000.13
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.140.0067.43-0.000.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.140.0040.78-0.00-0.03
UABCUSA0.000.1433.3344.17-0.00-0.02
UTSACUSA0.000.1433.3328.79-0.00-0.06
New OrleansSlnd0.000.140.0036.60-0.00-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.140.0028.11-0.00-0.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1366.6741.550.00-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.130.0066.25-0.000.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.130.0025.45-0.00-0.07
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1366.6749.540.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.000.1375.0059.380.000.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1325.0045.33-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.1360.0056.190.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.1340.0031.23-0.00-0.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.11100.0053.250.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.1150.0043.100.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.11100.0065.710.000.03
SamfordSC0.000.1140.0040.15-0.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.1060.0056.280.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.1033.3368.48-0.000.04
UTEPCUSA0.000.10100.0070.870.000.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1050.0065.510.000.03
MarshallCUSA0.000.1066.6749.780.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC2.080.100.0035.37-2.08-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1025.0040.73-0.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1060.0068.250.000.04
HamptonMEAC0.000.1020.0045.09-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.1066.6752.600.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1080.0074.570.000.05
Georgia TechACC2.080.10100.0049.352.08-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0940.0050.32-0.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.09100.0052.850.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.09100.0081.020.000.06
North TexasCUSA0.000.0766.6739.910.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0725.0045.15-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.070.0035.72-0.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0775.0054.260.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.070.0032.66-0.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.07100.0048.890.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.070.0031.74-0.00-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0733.3349.98-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.070.0032.72-0.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.070.0066.91-0.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0716.6731.76-0.00-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.070.0034.82-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.070.0020.75-0.00-0.04
LipscombASun0.000.070.0042.35-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.070.0017.79-0.00-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.070.0032.89-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.070.0038.95-0.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.080.070.0038.35-2.08-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0720.0053.43-0.000.00
BYUWCC0.000.0766.6769.270.000.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0740.0044.83-0.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0775.0064.740.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0725.0037.50-0.00-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0750.0051.850.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0733.3329.06-0.00-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0725.0036.61-0.00-0.02
PurdueB100.000.0780.0067.040.000.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0740.0060.63-0.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0725.0046.58-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0650.0030.030.00-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.0675.0064.660.000.02
DetroitHorz0.000.0660.0059.230.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0633.3323.56-0.00-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0640.0047.31-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0660.0066.760.000.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0625.0046.48-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0024.22-0.00-0.03
Miami FLACC0.000.06100.0081.280.000.04
Montana St.BSky0.000.060.0021.79-0.00-0.04
NJITind0.000.0620.0028.08-0.00-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.000.0666.6754.750.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0666.6766.740.000.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0633.3367.26-0.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0650.0031.510.00-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.0625.0054.27-0.000.01
Charleston SouthernBSth2.080.0666.6754.260.690.01
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0060.560.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0640.0036.72-0.00-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0043.100.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0675.0067.070.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0019.97-0.00-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0065.600.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0675.0063.470.000.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0620.0029.38-0.00-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0625.0050.46-0.000.00
MichiganB100.000.0475.0066.400.000.01
UCLAP120.000.04100.0065.220.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0460.0047.180.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.04100.0084.260.000.03
BelmontOVC0.000.0375.0071.930.000.02
BrownIvy0.000.0320.0038.78-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0375.0069.250.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0320.0035.41-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0060.830.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0375.0044.920.00-0.00
IowaB100.000.0360.0064.290.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0325.0031.38-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0320.0026.30-0.00-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0046.130.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0325.0048.23-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0060.980.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0333.3330.02-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0340.0047.10-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0025.13-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0366.6744.670.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.030.0046.09-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.000.0375.0059.500.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0085.190.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0360.0057.210.000.00
MercerSC0.000.0333.3353.13-0.000.00
NebraskaB100.000.0375.0053.250.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0350.0049.860.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0325.0047.03-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.03100.0065.620.000.01
Stony BrookAE2.080.0350.0066.080.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0375.0071.680.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky2.080.0320.0050.95-1.250.00
OregonP120.000.0360.0063.180.000.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0057.870.000.00