live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Troy

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:285.0
Current RPI:285
Expected SOS:235
Current SOS:235
Current Record:9-20
Expected Record:9-20
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-5
Current OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:294
Expected OOC SOS:241



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-20285.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Troy.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Mississippi (94.0)SECA69-54L0%0.0
11-14UAB (152.0)CUSAA81-69L0%0.0
11-19Nicholls St. (262.0)SlndH77-62W100%0.0
11-26Central Arkansas (328.0)SlndA60-53L0%0.0
12-2Alcorn St. (314.0)SWACH73-70W100%0.0
12-7Alabama St. (254.0)SWACH85-69W100%0.0
12-15Kansas St. (51.0)B12A72-43L0%0.0
12-19UC Santa Barbara (107.0)BWN54-57L0%0.0
12-20Western Illinois (290.0)SumN61-58L0%0.0
12-21Utah St. (116.0)MWCA71-50L0%0.0
1-2Georgia St. (76.0)SBA81-72L0%0.0
1-4Western Kentucky (125.0)SBH51-60L0%0.0
1-9Arkansas St. (180.0)SBA84-98W100%0.0
1-11Arkansas Little Rock (186.0)SBA62-75W100%0.0
1-16Louisiana Monroe (244.0)SBH64-75L0%0.0
1-18Louisiana Lafayette (90.0)SBH59-72L0%0.0
1-23UT Arlington (199.0)SBA59-56L0%0.0
1-25Texas St. (307.0)SBA73-65L0%0.0
2-1Arkansas St. (180.0)SBH73-83L0%0.0
2-6South Alabama (280.0)SBH79-74W100%0.0
2-13Western Kentucky (125.0)SBA81-76L0%0.0
2-15Georgia St. (76.0)SBH85-81W100%0.0
2-20Louisiana Lafayette (90.0)SBA78-63L0%0.0
2-22South Alabama (280.0)SBA86-78L0%0.0
2-27Arkansas Little Rock (186.0)SBH55-62L0%0.0
3-1Louisiana Monroe (244.0)SBA46-61W100%0.0
3-6UT Arlington (199.0)SBH86-87L0%0.0
3-8Texas St. (307.0)SBH72-50W100%0.0
3-13Arkansas Little Rock (186.0)SBN74-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Troy's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Troy's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Troy.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TroySB26.5026.5030.2330.23-10.48-10.48
Arkansas Little RockSB6.176.1740.7440.74-1.14-1.14
Arkansas St.SB4.624.6257.1457.140.660.66
Louisiana LafayetteSB4.624.6262.0762.071.111.11
UT ArlingtonSB4.574.5739.2939.29-0.98-0.98
Georgia St.SB4.564.5675.8675.862.362.36
Western KentuckySB4.534.5358.6258.620.780.78
Louisiana MonroeSB4.514.5133.3333.33-1.50-1.50
Texas St.SB4.444.4418.5218.52-2.80-2.80
South AlabamaSB4.444.4426.9226.92-2.05-2.05
MississippiSEC1.871.8756.2556.250.230.23
Alabama St.SWAC1.851.8559.2659.260.340.34
Alcorn St.SWAC1.851.8533.3333.33-0.62-0.62
Western IllinoisSum1.841.8423.0823.08-0.99-0.99
Central ArkansasSlnd1.841.8420.8320.83-1.07-1.07
Utah St.MWC1.821.8253.3353.330.120.12
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.811.8166.6766.670.600.60
Kansas St.B121.781.7861.2961.290.400.40
Nicholls St.Slnd1.761.7648.0048.00-0.07-0.07
UABCUSA1.721.7253.5753.570.120.12
Southern MissCUSA0.290.2980.6580.650.180.18
Northwestern St.Slnd0.260.2648.1548.15-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.250.2514.8114.81-0.18-0.18
Jackson St.SWAC0.240.2435.4835.48-0.07-0.07
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.230.2370.9770.970.100.10
TexasB120.230.2369.7069.700.090.09
McNeese St.Slnd0.210.2125.9325.93-0.10-0.10
Grambling St.SWAC0.210.2114.8114.81-0.15-0.15
SouthernSWAC0.210.2155.1755.170.020.02
OklahomaB120.200.2071.8871.880.090.09
Oral RobertsSlnd0.190.1944.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.190.1978.7978.790.110.11
SamfordSC0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.170.1730.7730.77-0.06-0.06
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.160.1693.1093.100.140.14
Texas SouthernSWAC0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.150.1520.6920.69-0.09-0.09
Jacksonville St.OVC0.150.1527.5927.59-0.07-0.07
TulaneCUSA0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
HoustonAmer0.150.1551.5251.520.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.140.1453.5753.570.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.1357.1457.140.020.02
LamarSlnd0.130.1310.7110.71-0.10-0.10
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.120.1230.3030.30-0.05-0.05
LSUSEC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
KansasB120.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
MemphisAmer0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
NebraskaB100.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
UTSACUSA0.120.1222.2222.22-0.07-0.07
TulsaCUSA0.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
WyomingMWC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
FloridaSEC0.110.1194.1294.120.100.10
LouisvilleAmer0.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
KentuckySEC0.110.1170.5970.590.050.05
BaylorB120.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
AlabamaSEC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1048.1548.15-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.100.1010.3410.34-0.08-0.08
DenverSum0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
RiceCUSA0.090.0917.8617.86-0.06-0.06
GonzagaWCC0.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
Texas TechB120.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
UNLVMWC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
North FloridaASun0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.090.0981.8281.820.050.05
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Iowa St.B120.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
Ohio St.B100.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
IPFWSum0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0678.5778.570.040.04
UTEPCUSA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
UC DavisBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
PacificWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
UtahP120.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
AuburnSEC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0621.2121.21-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
MercerASun0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
ElonSC0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
NevadaMWC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.060.06100.00100.000.060.06
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
IdahoWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
IllinoisB100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
RutgersAmer0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.033.573.57-0.03-0.03
USCP120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
DaytonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00