Troy

Conference:	SB
Expected RPI:	194.0
Current RPI:	194
Expected SOS:	164
Current SOS:	164
Current Record:	14-17
Expected Record:	14-17
Current Conf Record:	10-10
Expected Conf Record:	10-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-7
Current OOC Record:	4-7
Expected OOC Record:	4-7
Expected OOC RPI:	234
Expected OOC SOS:	195

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
14-17	194.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Troy.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	North Dakota (221.0)	BSky	N	83-80	L	0%
11-12	Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.0)	SWAC	N	81-57	W	100%
11-13	Hawaii (213.0)	BW	A	72-67	L	0%
11-20	Kentucky (10.0)	SEC	A	70-62	L	0%
11-22	East Tennessee St. (93.0)	SC	A	65-73	W	100%
11-27	Delaware St. (351.0)	MEAC	H	95-64	W	100%
11-29	Illinois Chicago (236.0)	Horz	H	87-66	W	100%
12-5	UAB (155.0)	CUSA	H	78-90	L	0%
12-10	Southern Miss (207.0)	CUSA	A	89-71	L	0%
12-16	Arkansas (30.0)	SEC	N	88-63	L	0%
12-19	Austin Peay (164.0)	OVC	A	75-73	L	0%
12-29	Georgia Southern (140.0)	SB	H	80-86	L	0%
12-31	Georgia St. (120.0)	SB	H	68-66	W	100%
1-4	UT Arlington (108.0)	SB	A	86-76	L	0%
1-6	Texas St. (243.0)	SB	A	57-56	L	0%
1-13	South Alabama (270.0)	SB	A	64-79	W	100%
1-20	Coastal Carolina (246.0)	SB	H	73-74	L	0%
1-22	Appalachian St. (250.0)	SB	H	81-79	W	100%
1-25	Louisiana Monroe (219.0)	SB	A	76-71	L	0%
1-27	Louisiana Lafayette (63.0)	SB	A	81-69	L	0%
2-3	South Alabama (270.0)	SB	H	80-63	W	100%
2-8	Arkansas St. (291.0)	SB	H	89-83	W	100%
2-10	Little Rock (308.0)	SB	H	82-64	W	100%
2-15	Coastal Carolina (246.0)	SB	A	65-66	W	100%
2-17	Appalachian St. (250.0)	SB	A	65-54	L	0%
2-22	Louisiana Lafayette (63.0)	SB	H	76-81	L	0%
2-24	Louisiana Monroe (219.0)	SB	H	73-67	W	100%
3-1	Georgia St. (120.0)	SB	A	70-83	W	100%
3-3	Georgia Southern (140.0)	SB	A	89-83	L	0%
3-7	South Alabama (270.0)	SB	N	69-62	W	100%
3-9	Georgia St. (120.0)	SB	N	73-51	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Troy's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Troy's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Troy.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Troy	SB	26.40	26.40	45.93	45.93	-2.15	-2.15
South Alabama	SB	5.66	5.66	44.44	44.44	-0.63	-0.63
Georgia St.	SB	5.61	5.61	72.41	72.41	2.51	2.51
Georgia Southern	SB	4.12	4.12	58.62	58.62	0.71	0.71
Louisiana Monroe	SB	4.01	4.01	46.15	46.15	-0.31	-0.31
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	4.00	4.00	79.31	79.31	2.34	2.34
Appalachian St.	SB	4.00	4.00	41.38	41.38	-0.69	-0.69
Coastal Carolina	SB	3.96	3.96	37.04	37.04	-1.03	-1.03
UT Arlington	SB	2.67	2.67	59.38	59.38	0.50	0.50
Texas St.	SB	2.62	2.62	40.00	40.00	-0.52	-0.52
Arkansas St.	SB	2.55	2.55	31.03	31.03	-0.97	-0.97
Little Rock	SB	2.54	2.54	20.69	20.69	-1.49	-1.49
Southern Miss	CUSA	1.75	1.75	37.93	37.93	-0.42	-0.42
East Tennessee St.	SC	1.72	1.72	74.19	74.19	0.83	0.83
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	1.69	1.69	41.18	41.18	-0.30	-0.30
Kentucky	SEC	1.69	1.69	69.70	69.70	0.67	0.67
UAB	CUSA	1.67	1.67	56.67	56.67	0.22	0.22
Delaware St.	MEAC	1.66	1.66	6.90	6.90	-1.44	-1.44
North Dakota	BSky	1.66	1.66	31.03	31.03	-0.63	-0.63
Illinois Chicago	Horz	1.66	1.66	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Hawaii	BW	1.66	1.66	51.85	51.85	0.06	0.06
Arkansas	SEC	1.64	1.64	66.67	66.67	0.55	0.55
Austin Peay	OVC	1.61	1.61	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.20	0.20	9.68	9.68	-0.16	-0.16
Mississippi	SEC	0.20	0.20	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
Rice	CUSA	0.18	0.18	17.24	17.24	-0.12	-0.12
Chattanooga	SC	0.18	0.18	25.81	25.81	-0.09	-0.09
UTSA	CUSA	0.16	0.16	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.16	0.16	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
FIU	CUSA	0.16	0.16	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
New Orleans	Slnd	0.16	0.16	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.16	0.16	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Montana	BSky	0.16	0.16	77.42	77.42	0.09	0.09
Tulane	Amer	0.16	0.16	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.16	0.16	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.15	0.15	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.13	0.13	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.13	0.13	76.67	76.67	0.07	0.07
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.13	0.13	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
UTEP	CUSA	0.13	0.13	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.13	0.13	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.13	0.13	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Western Carolina	SC	0.13	0.13	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.12	0.12	75.76	75.76	0.06	0.06
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Lamar	Slnd	0.11	0.11	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.11	0.11	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.11	0.11	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Wofford	SC	0.11	0.11	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.11	0.11	32.14	32.14	-0.04	-0.04
Marshall	CUSA	0.11	0.11	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.10	0.10	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.10	0.10	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Alabama	SEC	0.10	0.10	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	12.50	12.50	-0.07	-0.07
Florida	SEC	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.09	0.09	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Cal Poly	BW	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Davidson	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	32.35	32.35	-0.03	-0.03
La Salle	A10	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Maine	AE	0.08	0.08	13.33	13.33	-0.06	-0.06
Milwaukee	Horz	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Montana St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
SMU	Amer	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Tech	B12	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Utah Valley	WAC	0.08	0.08	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Vermont	AE	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Detroit	Horz	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Bradley	MVC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.08	0.08	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Iowa	B10	0.08	0.08	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
North Texas	CUSA	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Liberty	BSth	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.08	0.08	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Samford	SC	0.07	0.07	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
LSU	SEC	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.07	0.07	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.06	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Long Beach St.	BW	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	8.00	8.00	-0.05	-0.05
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
TCU	B12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.06	0.06	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
College of Charleston	CAA	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Idaho	BSky	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Idaho St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	82.76	82.76	0.04	0.04
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Horz	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.05	0.05	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
Memphis	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
George Mason	A10	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
VCU	A10	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Creighton	BE	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	SC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
VMI	SC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Pacific	WCC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Utah	P12	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	23.08	23.08	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
East Carolina	Amer	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Penn	Ivy	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Southern Utah	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
UMBC	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
Wichita St.	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	BE	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
BYU	WCC	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.02	0.02	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	Amer	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Houston	Amer	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Monmouth	MAAC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.02	0.02	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01