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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Troy

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:247.7
Current RPI:203
Expected SOS:176
Current SOS:207
Current Record:3-4
Expected Record:10-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-5
Current OOC Record:3-4
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:255
Expected OOC SOS:307



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-11108.00.01%
17-12122.70.13%
16-13138.70.57%
15-14157.31.57%
14-15179.84.63%
13-16199.98.70%
12-17220.414.52%
11-18239.818.65%
10-19259.119.19%
9-20276.815.86%
8-21291.69.36%
7-22304.85.13%
6-23313.31.34%
5-24323.80.30%
4-25331.30.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Troy.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Eastern Illinois (230.7)OVCH70-67W100%0.0
11-17UAB (139.7)CUSAA74-51L0%0.0
11-21Eastern Illinois (230.7)OVCA71-67L0%0.0
11-23San Francisco (158.3)WCCA79-67L0%0.0
11-25Hawaii (273.6)BWA63-65W100%0.0
12-1South Florida (267.6)AmerH74-80L0%0.0
12-4Alabama St. (327.8)SWACH83-65W100%0.0
12-10Alabama A&M (350.0)SWACH0-095%20.0
12-17USC (37.0)P12A0-03%-22.1
12-19Wyoming (153.4)MWCA0-019%-10.8
12-22Cornell (264.7)IvyN0-053%0.9
1-2South Alabama (143.9)SBA0-022%-9.3
1-7Georgia Southern (189.8)SBA0-028%-7.1
1-9Georgia St. (105.9)SBA0-015%-12.4
1-14UT Arlington (67.2)SBH0-024%-8.4
1-16Texas St. (265.1)SBH0-057%2.1
1-21Arkansas St. (76.0)SBA0-014%-12.8
1-23Little Rock (151.3)SBA0-020%-10.2
1-28Georgia St. (105.9)SBH0-031%-6.1
1-30Georgia Southern (189.8)SBH0-047%-0.8
2-4South Alabama (143.9)SBH0-040%-3.0
2-11Louisiana Lafayette (101.3)SBA0-015%-12.5
2-13Louisiana Monroe (264.0)SBA0-043%-2.0
2-18Coastal Carolina (222.6)SBH0-049%-0.4
2-20Appalachian St. (269.1)SBH0-061%3.4
2-25Texas St. (265.1)SBA0-036%-4.2
2-27UT Arlington (67.2)SBA0-011%-14.7
3-2Arkansas St. (76.0)SBH0-029%-6.5
3-4Little Rock (151.3)SBH0-037%-4.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Troy's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Troy's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Troy.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TroySB29.5526.3644.8335.84-3.06-7.47
South AlabamaSB1.024.3571.4357.160.440.62
Texas St.SB0.604.2050.0042.610.00-0.62
Georgia St.SB0.004.2050.0059.350.000.78
Georgia SouthernSB0.004.1742.8642.21-0.00-0.65
UT ArlingtonSB0.004.1762.5066.270.001.36
Arkansas St.SB0.004.1775.0065.520.001.29
Little RockSB0.004.1766.6760.570.000.88
Eastern IllinoisOVC14.293.5160.0050.092.860.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.002.6225.0038.38-0.00-0.61
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.002.6271.4363.180.000.69
Louisiana MonroeSB0.002.6216.6728.85-0.00-1.11
Appalachian St.SB0.002.6216.6729.45-0.00-1.08
Alabama A&MSWAC0.451.870.0013.77-0.45-1.36
HawaiiBW7.141.7960.0052.471.430.09
CornellIvy0.001.7828.5729.30-0.00-0.74
Alabama St.SWAC7.141.7814.2934.85-5.10-0.54
USCP120.001.76100.0075.990.000.91
WyomingMWC0.001.7666.6753.040.000.11
UABCUSA7.141.7542.8658.53-1.020.30
San FranciscoWCC7.141.7283.3351.844.760.06
South FloridaAmer7.141.7250.0030.840.00-0.66
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.600.2850.0041.990.00-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.040.240.0023.69-1.04-0.13
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.2150.0066.300.000.07
MinnesotaB100.000.2187.5068.020.000.07
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1975.0054.670.000.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.110.1816.6730.34-0.74-0.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.1814.2931.28-0.00-0.07
TulsaAmer0.000.1850.0038.050.00-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.000.1842.8633.23-0.00-0.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1887.5076.230.000.09
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1857.1471.940.000.08
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.1812.5030.39-0.00-0.07
FIUCUSA0.000.1814.2936.02-0.00-0.05
Murray St.OVC0.000.1650.0061.240.000.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.450.15100.0089.330.450.12
Alcorn St.SWAC0.510.150.0034.27-0.51-0.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.1525.0031.41-0.00-0.06
SouthernSWAC0.000.1540.0058.82-0.000.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.1333.3336.74-0.00-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1342.8638.63-0.00-0.03
Western IllinoisSum1.020.130.0016.68-1.02-0.09
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.510.130.0033.85-0.51-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1350.0050.840.000.00
BradleyMVC1.020.1242.8627.96-0.15-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.450.1250.0046.410.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1225.0027.53-0.00-0.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1233.3346.38-0.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.1212.5023.93-0.00-0.06
UNLVMWC0.000.1262.5043.800.00-0.02
AuburnSEC0.450.1285.7157.450.320.02
BYUWCC0.000.1262.5066.900.000.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1214.2943.58-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.120.0025.23-0.00-0.06
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1225.0020.78-0.00-0.07
TexasB120.000.1257.1438.680.00-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.000.1271.4373.040.000.05
PrincetonIvy0.000.1025.0063.27-0.000.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.450.1028.5733.77-0.19-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.530.0942.8645.44-0.22-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0957.1442.530.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0985.7170.060.000.04
PacificWCC0.000.0942.8646.14-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0975.0051.040.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.090.0017.61-0.00-0.06
MontanaBSky0.000.0925.0048.10-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0971.4368.050.000.03
San DiegoWCC0.000.0937.5031.23-0.00-0.03
UTSACUSA0.000.0925.0029.54-0.00-0.04
DenverSum0.000.0942.8645.01-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.510.090.0022.58-0.51-0.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.450.0912.5023.75-0.33-0.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.450.0950.0071.020.000.04
MemphisAmer0.000.0975.0055.500.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0933.3330.44-0.00-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.0957.1451.790.000.00
TCUB120.450.09100.0061.680.450.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.450.0937.5035.09-0.11-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.0742.8641.51-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0728.5742.90-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.070.0038.27-0.00-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.0750.0045.970.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0750.0054.070.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.070.0032.52-0.00-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0650.0064.350.000.02
BrownIvy0.000.0655.5646.970.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0642.8642.62-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0020.55-0.00-0.04
HarvardIvy0.000.0620.0046.79-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0642.8650.11-0.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0616.6738.58-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0657.1453.990.000.01
PennIvy0.000.0633.3356.57-0.000.01
Saint LouisA101.020.0628.5723.78-0.44-0.03
YaleIvy0.000.0642.8663.41-0.000.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0612.5037.99-0.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0685.7178.280.000.03
James MadisonCAA0.000.0612.5030.68-0.00-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0657.1448.500.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.0642.8656.04-0.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0671.4360.540.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0666.6740.030.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0091.920.000.05
MassachusettsA100.000.0671.4358.600.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0675.0048.030.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0662.5058.450.000.01
NJITASun0.000.0650.0049.780.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.000.0650.0054.070.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0675.0075.340.000.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0650.0041.490.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0633.3332.35-0.00-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0675.0061.490.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0622.2221.23-0.00-0.04
Utah St.MWC0.000.0642.8650.06-0.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0662.5051.790.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0671.4351.460.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0660.0069.120.000.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0685.7162.220.000.01
UtahP120.000.0675.0059.790.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.0671.4368.980.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0685.7166.190.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0671.4356.250.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0687.5082.360.000.04
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0633.3339.61-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0017.13-0.00-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0677.7849.900.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0687.5075.240.000.03
FordhamA100.000.0650.0041.310.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0650.0052.760.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0657.1459.280.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.960.0625.0030.23-0.48-0.02
MercerSC0.000.0642.8647.76-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0675.0048.500.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0611.1148.19-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0022.31-0.00-0.03
RadfordBSth0.000.0628.5734.28-0.00-0.02
SamfordSC0.000.0662.5056.520.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0018.64-0.00-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.000.0671.4370.390.000.02
StetsonASun0.000.0628.5728.24-0.00-0.03
TempleAmer0.000.0675.0064.920.000.02
UCFAmer0.000.0685.7176.240.000.03
WinthropBSth0.000.0650.0071.070.000.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0642.8638.17-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0675.0062.620.000.01
George WashingtonA100.960.0655.5641.690.11-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0660.0058.590.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0640.0041.93-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0666.6766.860.000.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0625.0055.33-0.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.0675.0068.370.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0662.5040.460.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.0642.8650.09-0.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0628.5731.44-0.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0655.5647.890.00-0.00
LehighPat0.000.0642.8666.67-0.000.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0671.4354.860.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0657.1458.940.000.01
OregonP120.000.0675.0072.250.000.03
Oregon St.P120.000.0625.0022.93-0.00-0.03
UCLAP120.000.06100.0086.690.000.04
WashingtonP120.000.0657.1452.370.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.0642.8628.98-0.00-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0360.0067.760.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.600.0387.5081.960.450.02
Seton HallBE0.000.0371.4354.560.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0342.8661.11-0.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.0350.0043.560.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.000.0312.5029.71-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0371.4363.170.000.01
DukeACC0.000.0388.8978.400.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0314.2942.67-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.0322.2226.33-0.00-0.02
LafayettePat0.000.0333.3333.36-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0375.0070.620.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0350.0044.400.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0337.5052.01-0.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0371.4366.700.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0340.0041.12-0.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0322.2238.49-0.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0328.5723.12-0.00-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0340.0054.54-0.000.00
DePaulBE0.000.0366.6735.430.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.510.0371.4355.160.220.00
LamarSlnd0.510.0350.0041.540.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0377.7871.970.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0333.3352.84-0.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.0340.0043.41-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.510.030.0022.01-0.51-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0325.0039.59-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0342.8647.11-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0314.2932.19-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0328.5741.52-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0325.0047.82-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0366.6761.550.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0350.0041.990.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.510.0371.4359.470.220.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0357.1452.030.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0350.0062.380.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0342.8637.34-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0357.1471.520.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.56-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0320.0041.92-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.510.0350.0048.810.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0316.6739.49-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0078.850.000.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0024.64-0.00-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0357.1467.260.000.01
VCUA100.000.0375.0073.060.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0375.0054.490.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6736.03-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.030.0034.81-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.450.0333.3356.24-0.150.00
KansasB120.450.0387.5075.860.330.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0342.8655.09-0.000.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0375.0071.470.000.01
StanfordP120.000.0366.6758.060.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.180.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0320.0035.47-0.00-0.01