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Through games of Feb 26, 2017.


Troy

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:192.3
Current RPI:206
Expected SOS:227
Current SOS:255
Current Record:14-13
Expected Record:15-15
Current Conf Record:8-7
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-6
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:254
Expected OOC SOS:341



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-13162.15.56%
16-14180.337.56%
15-15200.645.24%
14-16212.911.63%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Troy.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Eastern Illinois (269.4)OVCH70-67W100%0.0
11-17UAB (190.9)CUSAA74-51L0%0.0
11-21Eastern Illinois (269.4)OVCA71-67L0%0.0
11-23San Francisco (86.3)WCCA79-67L0%0.0
11-25Hawaii (277.6)BWA63-65W100%0.0
12-1South Florida (305.9)AmerH74-80L0%0.0
12-4Alabama St. (339.7)SWACH83-65W100%0.0
12-10Alabama A&M (350.3)SWACH88-59W100%0.0
12-17USC (41.8)P12A82-77L0%0.0
12-19Wyoming (137.2)MWCA72-66L0%0.0
12-22Cornell (279.5)IvyN84-92W100%0.0
12-23Chicago St. (318.5)WACN83-65W100%0.0
1-2South Alabama (220.9)SBA76-75L0%0.0
1-7Georgia Southern (106.3)SBA86-82L0%0.0
1-9Georgia St. (111.8)SBA77-80W100%0.0
1-14UT Arlington (37.1)SBH93-71W100%0.0
1-16Texas St. (203.4)SBH71-75L0%0.0
1-21Arkansas St. (90.1)SBA82-80L0%0.0
1-23Little Rock (250.3)SBA69-78W100%0.0
1-28Georgia St. (111.8)SBH72-78L0%0.0
1-30Georgia Southern (106.3)SBH83-76W100%0.0
2-4South Alabama (220.9)SBH71-76L0%0.0
2-11Louisiana Lafayette (133.3)SBA88-100W100%0.0
2-13Louisiana Monroe (289.9)SBA72-73W100%0.0
2-18Coastal Carolina (174.5)SBH87-78W100%0.0
2-20Appalachian St. (293.3)SBH76-66W100%0.0
2-25Texas St. (203.4)SBA63-59L0%0.0
2-27UT Arlington (37.1)SBA0-016%-10.6
3-2Arkansas St. (90.1)SBH0-049%-0.2
3-4Little Rock (250.3)SBH0-074%6.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Troy's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Troy's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Troy.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TroySB26.3026.3454.5552.952.391.55
South AlabamaSB4.414.2137.5038.35-1.10-0.98
Texas St.SB4.314.0652.1751.450.190.12
Georgia St.SB4.384.0662.5061.841.100.96
Georgia SouthernSB4.354.0360.0058.700.870.70
UT ArlingtonSB2.574.0380.0079.401.542.37
Arkansas St.SB2.464.0365.3865.170.761.22
Little RockSB2.464.0344.0043.82-0.29-0.50
Eastern IllinoisOVC3.773.3944.0044.00-0.45-0.41
Coastal CarolinaSB2.632.5446.1547.38-0.20-0.13
Louisiana LafayetteSB2.562.5460.0059.870.510.50
Louisiana MonroeSB2.562.5424.0024.90-1.33-1.27
Appalachian St.SB2.632.5325.0026.23-1.32-1.20
Alabama A&MSWAC2.031.818.008.39-1.70-1.51
HawaiiBW1.931.7352.0050.550.080.02
USCP121.921.7371.4372.370.820.77
Alabama St.SWAC1.921.7228.0029.27-0.85-0.71
WyomingMWC1.921.7253.8553.560.150.12
CornellIvy1.921.7224.0024.35-1.00-0.88
UABCUSA1.891.7048.1550.65-0.070.02
Chicago St.WAC1.851.6711.5411.95-1.42-1.27
San FranciscoWCC1.851.6762.0762.070.450.40
South FloridaAmer1.851.6723.0822.55-1.00-0.92
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.280.2717.8617.86-0.18-0.17
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.250.2321.4322.28-0.14-0.13
Texas SouthernSWAC0.180.2060.7163.340.040.05
MinnesotaB100.170.2075.8674.340.090.10
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.210.1841.3841.38-0.04-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.170.1862.0762.070.040.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.180.1729.6331.85-0.07-0.06
TulsaAmer0.180.1750.0049.050.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.180.1732.0030.44-0.06-0.07
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.210.1785.7186.430.150.13
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.170.1774.0774.070.080.08
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.1726.6727.00-0.05-0.08
FIUCUSA0.170.1714.8114.35-0.12-0.12
PepperdineWCC0.160.1727.5927.59-0.07-0.08
Western IllinoisSum0.170.1524.0024.00-0.09-0.08
Murray St.OVC0.170.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.140.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.180.1425.9325.10-0.08-0.07
Grambling St.SWAC0.110.1440.0042.28-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.170.1454.1752.440.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.180.1446.1545.04-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.130.1489.6689.660.100.11
Austin PeayOVC0.140.1232.1432.14-0.05-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.130.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.140.1251.7251.720.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.140.1225.9325.17-0.07-0.06
TulaneAmer0.140.1217.8618.08-0.09-0.07
AuburnSEC0.140.1258.6258.150.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.1136.0040.25-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.1117.2420.08-0.09-0.07
UNLVMWC0.140.1134.4833.87-0.04-0.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.130.1116.0016.70-0.09-0.08
TexasB120.100.1134.4834.12-0.03-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.100.1162.9663.840.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.1150.0050.000.000.00
BYUWCC0.130.1167.7467.740.050.04
Saint LouisA100.100.0934.4833.33-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.100.0925.0025.17-0.05-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.0955.5655.560.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.110.0975.0075.780.050.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.0950.0049.020.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.110.0948.0048.50-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.0920.8321.37-0.06-0.05
SeattleWAC0.100.0940.0039.27-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.100.0964.2964.650.030.03
UTSACUSA0.110.0937.0436.94-0.03-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0951.8550.780.000.00
DenverSum0.110.0955.1755.170.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.0919.2319.72-0.06-0.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0925.0025.07-0.04-0.04
Missouri St.MVC0.100.0950.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.0967.8668.870.040.03
MemphisAmer0.100.0962.0761.430.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.070.0923.0822.49-0.04-0.05
San Diego St.MWC0.100.0955.5656.670.010.01
UtahP120.100.0861.5461.950.020.02
MontanaBSky0.100.0848.2848.65-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.070.0857.1456.750.010.01
PacificWCC0.100.0830.0030.00-0.04-0.03
TCUB120.070.0857.1456.900.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.0844.8345.81-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.090.0841.3841.38-0.02-0.01
BelmontOVC0.070.0680.7780.770.040.04
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0644.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0665.5265.520.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.070.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
BrownIvy0.040.0638.4639.38-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.070.0630.7732.97-0.03-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0672.0072.040.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0640.0041.36-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0641.6741.50-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.070.0624.0022.79-0.04-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0667.8666.440.020.02
HarvardIvy0.070.0669.5767.060.030.02
Long Beach St.BW0.040.0637.9338.88-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.070.0648.2847.58-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0650.0049.680.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0680.7781.310.040.04
NJITASun0.070.0632.1432.14-0.03-0.02
PennIvy0.070.0648.0049.55-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.070.0679.3178.860.040.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0662.5062.610.020.02
UC DavisBW0.040.0659.2658.390.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.070.0653.5755.070.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.070.0624.0023.98-0.04-0.03
UMKCWAC0.030.0644.4445.62-0.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0640.0041.50-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.070.0662.0762.070.020.01
YaleIvy0.040.0658.3360.030.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0642.3142.27-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0625.0026.00-0.04-0.03
DePaulBE0.070.0631.0330.04-0.03-0.02
HoustonAmer0.070.0671.4370.580.030.02
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0682.7682.760.040.04
Air ForceMWC0.070.0633.3332.49-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.070.0678.5778.180.040.03
ArkansasSEC0.040.0675.8673.450.020.03
Boise St.MWC0.070.0665.3865.550.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0686.2185.440.050.04
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0666.6765.560.010.02
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0648.1548.26-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0625.9326.04-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0644.8343.04-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.040.0679.3179.350.020.03
FordhamA100.040.0642.8642.42-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0657.6957.830.010.01
IdahoBSky0.040.0652.0053.420.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.070.0642.8643.57-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0662.0760.370.020.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.040.0651.6151.610.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.070.0655.1754.850.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.040.0621.4321.43-0.02-0.03
RadfordBSth0.070.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.070.0653.5752.980.010.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0648.0046.19-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0636.0035.98-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.040.0664.2963.720.010.02
StetsonASun0.070.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.02
TempleAmer0.030.0650.0050.990.000.00
UCFAmer0.030.0665.5266.270.010.02
Utah St.MWC0.070.0644.4445.15-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.070.0677.7877.780.040.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0631.0331.03-0.03-0.02
George WashingtonA100.070.0655.1754.140.010.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0652.0053.480.000.00
CaliforniaP120.070.0667.8666.480.020.02
ColoradoP120.070.0653.5753.810.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0658.3359.230.010.01
SMUAmer0.070.0686.2186.520.050.04
ArmyPat0.030.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.030.0648.2847.22-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.060.0696.6796.670.060.05
LehighPat0.030.0660.7160.710.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0653.5754.970.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0662.9662.960.010.01
PortlandWCC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
ArizonaP120.060.0586.6786.550.050.04
Arizona St.P120.060.0546.6745.71-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.060.0586.2186.570.050.04
Oregon St.P120.060.0513.7913.43-0.05-0.04
UCLAP120.060.0589.6690.150.050.04
WashingtonP120.030.0532.1430.72-0.01-0.02
Washington St.P120.030.0544.4441.81-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.040.0351.8551.280.000.00
DukeACC0.040.0375.8674.140.020.01
HamptonMEAC0.040.0340.0041.67-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.040.0329.0329.03-0.02-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.040.0350.0051.170.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.040.0321.4322.56-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.040.0360.0060.000.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.040.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.040.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.040.0328.5728.57-0.02-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.040.0383.8783.870.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.040.0382.7681.210.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.040.0350.0050.000.000.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0368.9767.270.010.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0375.8674.710.020.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0375.8675.860.020.02
Seton HallBE0.040.0364.2962.630.010.01
SienaMAAC0.040.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.040.0356.6757.420.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.040.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
WisconsinB100.030.0375.8676.270.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.040.0360.7159.770.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0319.2322.18-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.040.0342.8642.02-0.01-0.00
BryantNEC0.040.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0373.3373.330.020.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.040.0357.1457.030.010.00
Montana St.BSky0.040.0348.1547.91-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0379.3179.090.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.040.0340.0038.77-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0376.0077.290.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0346.1546.13-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.040.0330.4331.29-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0371.4371.670.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0311.1111.98-0.03-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0372.4172.410.020.01
VCUA100.040.0379.3178.000.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.030.0357.1455.730.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.040.0344.4445.39-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0339.1339.73-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0366.6767.530.010.01
FurmanSC0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
KansasB120.030.0389.6688.490.030.02
LamarSlnd0.030.0348.0049.70-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0345.8345.20-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0366.6765.550.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0336.0035.08-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0344.4445.02-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
StanfordP120.030.0348.1546.78-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.5752.890.000.00