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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Troy

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:194.0
Current RPI:194
Expected SOS:164
Current SOS:164
Current Record:14-17
Expected Record:14-17
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-7
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:234
Expected OOC SOS:195



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-17194.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Troy.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10North Dakota (221.0)BSkyN83-80L0%0.0
11-12Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.0)SWACN81-57W100%0.0
11-13Hawaii (213.0)BWA72-67L0%0.0
11-20Kentucky (10.0)SECA70-62L0%0.0
11-22East Tennessee St. (93.0)SCA65-73W100%0.0
11-27Delaware St. (351.0)MEACH95-64W100%0.0
11-29Illinois Chicago (236.0)HorzH87-66W100%0.0
12-5UAB (155.0)CUSAH78-90L0%0.0
12-10Southern Miss (207.0)CUSAA89-71L0%0.0
12-16Arkansas (30.0)SECN88-63L0%0.0
12-19Austin Peay (164.0)OVCA75-73L0%0.0
12-29Georgia Southern (140.0)SBH80-86L0%0.0
12-31Georgia St. (120.0)SBH68-66W100%0.0
1-4UT Arlington (108.0)SBA86-76L0%0.0
1-6Texas St. (243.0)SBA57-56L0%0.0
1-13South Alabama (270.0)SBA64-79W100%0.0
1-20Coastal Carolina (246.0)SBH73-74L0%0.0
1-22Appalachian St. (250.0)SBH81-79W100%0.0
1-25Louisiana Monroe (219.0)SBA76-71L0%0.0
1-27Louisiana Lafayette (63.0)SBA81-69L0%0.0
2-3South Alabama (270.0)SBH80-63W100%0.0
2-8Arkansas St. (291.0)SBH89-83W100%0.0
2-10Little Rock (308.0)SBH82-64W100%0.0
2-15Coastal Carolina (246.0)SBA65-66W100%0.0
2-17Appalachian St. (250.0)SBA65-54L0%0.0
2-22Louisiana Lafayette (63.0)SBH76-81L0%0.0
2-24Louisiana Monroe (219.0)SBH73-67W100%0.0
3-1Georgia St. (120.0)SBA70-83W100%0.0
3-3Georgia Southern (140.0)SBA89-83L0%0.0
3-7South Alabama (270.0)SBN69-62W100%0.0
3-9Georgia St. (120.0)SBN73-51L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Troy's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Troy's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Troy.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TroySB26.4026.4045.9345.93-2.15-2.15
South AlabamaSB5.665.6644.4444.44-0.63-0.63
Georgia St.SB5.615.6172.4172.412.512.51
Georgia SouthernSB4.124.1258.6258.620.710.71
Louisiana MonroeSB4.014.0146.1546.15-0.31-0.31
Louisiana LafayetteSB4.004.0079.3179.312.342.34
Appalachian St.SB4.004.0041.3841.38-0.69-0.69
Coastal CarolinaSB3.963.9637.0437.04-1.03-1.03
UT ArlingtonSB2.672.6759.3859.380.500.50
Texas St.SB2.622.6240.0040.00-0.52-0.52
Arkansas St.SB2.552.5531.0331.03-0.97-0.97
Little RockSB2.542.5420.6920.69-1.49-1.49
Southern MissCUSA1.751.7537.9337.93-0.42-0.42
East Tennessee St.SC1.721.7274.1974.190.830.83
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.691.6941.1841.18-0.30-0.30
KentuckySEC1.691.6969.7069.700.670.67
UABCUSA1.671.6756.6756.670.220.22
Delaware St.MEAC1.661.666.906.90-1.44-1.44
North DakotaBSky1.661.6631.0331.03-0.63-0.63
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.661.6651.7251.720.060.06
HawaiiBW1.661.6651.8551.850.060.06
ArkansasSEC1.641.6466.6766.670.550.55
Austin PeayOVC1.611.6151.7251.720.060.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.200.209.689.68-0.16-0.16
MississippiSEC0.200.2037.5037.50-0.05-0.05
RiceCUSA0.180.1817.2417.24-0.12-0.12
ChattanoogaSC0.180.1825.8125.81-0.09-0.09
UTSACUSA0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.160.1634.4834.48-0.05-0.05
FIUCUSA0.160.1637.9337.93-0.04-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.160.1642.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.160.1648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.160.1677.4277.420.090.09
TulaneAmer0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.160.1643.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.150.1545.4545.45-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.130.1376.6776.670.070.07
Western KentuckyCUSA0.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
UTEPCUSA0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.130.1336.6736.67-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
LamarSlnd0.110.1153.5753.570.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Fort WayneSum0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.100.1078.1278.120.050.05
AlabamaSEC0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1012.5012.50-0.07-0.07
FloridaSEC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
MissouriSEC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
DavidsonA100.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0832.3532.35-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
StetsonASun0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0865.5265.520.020.02
VermontAE0.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
DetroitHorz0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
BradleyMVC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
DaytonA100.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
LibertyBSth0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
MassachusettsA100.080.0839.3939.39-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
SamfordSC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
LSUSEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.068.008.00-0.05-0.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0680.0080.000.030.03
TCUB120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
UC DavisBW0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
IonaMAAC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DePaulBE0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
IdahoBSky0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
IUPUIHorz0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0582.7682.760.040.04
NebraskaB100.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
AkronMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
George MasonA100.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0532.0032.00-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
TowsonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
UMKCWAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
WyomingMWC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
CreightonBE0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
PacificWCC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0315.6215.62-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
IllinoisB100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0393.9493.940.020.02
Wichita St.Amer0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
BYUWCC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
HoustonAmer0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
KansasB120.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0271.4371.430.010.01
OklahomaB120.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
UCLAP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
West VirginiaB120.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
Oregon St.P120.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01