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Through games of Feb 22, 2017.


LSU

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:183.5
Current RPI:171
Expected SOS:33
Current SOS:28
Current Record:9-18
Expected Record:10-20
Current Conf Record:1-14
Expected Conf Record:2-16
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:39
Expected OOC SOS:15



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-18133.50.45%
11-19154.87.95%
10-20175.736.49%
9-21193.255.11%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for LSU.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Wofford (194.0)SCH91-69W100%0.0
11-15Southern Miss (336.3)CUSAH78-61W100%0.0
11-18North Florida (239.9)ASunH78-70W100%0.0
11-23Wichita St. (38.2)MVCN82-47L0%0.0
11-24Old Dominion (131.9)CUSAN60-66W100%0.0
11-25VCU (22.5)A10N74-85L0%0.0
11-29Houston (50.7)AmerH84-65W100%0.0
12-13North Carolina Central (193.5)MEACH70-66W100%0.0
12-17Texas Southern (128.4)SWACH88-80W100%0.0
12-19College of Charleston (69.3)CAAH75-65W100%0.0
12-22Wake Forest (42.2)ACCA110-76L0%0.0
12-29Vanderbilt (47.9)SECH89-96L0%0.0
1-4Missouri (250.3)SECA77-88W100%0.0
1-7Mississippi St. (143.0)SECH78-95L0%0.0
1-11Texas A&M (99.9)SECA92-62L0%0.0
1-14Alabama (77.2)SECH66-81L0%0.0
1-18Auburn (89.0)SECA78-74L0%0.0
1-21Arkansas (34.7)SECA99-86L0%0.0
1-25Florida (5.1)SECH71-106L0%0.0
1-28Texas Tech (104.2)B12A77-64L0%0.0
2-1South Carolina (30.8)SECH63-88L0%0.0
2-4Texas A&M (99.9)SECH73-85L0%0.0
2-7Kentucky (9.4)SECA92-85L0%0.0
2-11Arkansas (34.7)SECH70-78L0%0.0
2-14Mississippi (73.9)SECA96-76L0%0.0
2-18Alabama (77.2)SECA90-72L0%0.0
2-21Auburn (89.0)SECH75-98L0%0.0
2-25Georgia (56.5)SECA0-09%-14.2
3-1Tennessee (64.1)SECH0-025%-7.3
3-4Mississippi St. (143.0)SECA0-020%-9.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

LSU's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


LSU's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  LSU.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LSUSEC26.1926.1126.8326.28-12.14-12.39
ArkansasSEC4.283.9773.0869.981.981.59
AuburnSEC4.253.9757.6956.880.650.55
Mississippi St.SEC2.433.9450.0047.880.00-0.17
AlabamaSEC4.173.9458.3356.880.700.54
Texas A&MSEC4.173.9148.0048.21-0.17-0.14
MissouriSEC2.502.4126.9226.65-1.15-1.12
FloridaSEC2.402.3381.4879.961.511.39
MississippiSEC2.362.3359.2658.530.440.40
VanderbiltSEC2.432.3251.8550.320.090.01
GeorgiaSEC0.542.3253.8553.700.040.17
KentuckySEC2.332.3081.4881.151.461.43
South CarolinaSEC2.362.3069.2369.530.910.90
TennesseeSEC0.572.3051.8551.460.020.07
North FloridaASun2.021.8032.0033.35-0.73-0.60
Southern MissCUSA1.921.7525.0023.37-0.96-0.93
Old DominionCUSA1.921.7264.0065.040.540.52
HoustonAmer1.921.7273.0871.510.890.74
Texas TechB121.921.7259.2657.950.360.27
College of CharlestonCAA1.881.6974.0775.210.910.85
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.891.6978.2680.091.071.02
VCUA101.891.6981.4878.691.190.97
Wake ForestACC1.881.6955.5654.280.210.14
Texas SouthernSWAC1.851.6761.5464.830.430.49
Wichita St.MVC1.851.6785.7185.861.321.20
WoffordSC1.851.6746.1545.53-0.14-0.15
Coastal CarolinaSB0.280.2346.1547.50-0.02-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.240.2050.0049.750.00-0.00
TexasB120.170.1935.7134.84-0.05-0.06
UTEPCUSA0.140.1740.0041.64-0.03-0.03
RiceCUSA0.180.1764.0063.500.050.05
ClemsonACC0.170.1751.8553.680.010.01
TCUB120.200.1659.2657.620.040.03
OklahomaB120.200.1633.3333.59-0.07-0.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.1477.7877.990.060.08
South Carolina St.MEAC0.170.1428.0029.86-0.08-0.06
North TexasCUSA0.140.1425.0025.84-0.07-0.07
ConnecticutAmer0.170.1450.0049.270.00-0.00
MercerSC0.170.1440.7440.78-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.170.1441.6742.37-0.03-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.100.1455.5652.750.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.140.1427.2728.66-0.06-0.06
UCFAmer0.140.1464.2963.820.040.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.170.1485.1985.420.120.10
Georgia St.SB0.140.1460.0059.400.030.03
LouisvilleACC0.130.1478.5778.520.080.08
DaytonA100.140.1480.7779.440.080.08
RichmondA100.170.1459.2659.930.030.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.160.1448.2848.17-0.01-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.130.1466.6765.160.040.04
BaylorB120.170.1381.4878.550.100.08
Western CarolinaSC0.140.1222.2222.75-0.08-0.06
LipscombASun0.110.1255.5655.680.010.01
StetsonASun0.140.1229.6328.76-0.06-0.05
HowardMEAC0.150.1219.2321.44-0.09-0.07
FIUCUSA0.140.1216.0018.13-0.10-0.07
MarshallCUSA0.110.1253.8554.710.010.01
Miami FLACC0.140.1270.3767.240.060.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.110.1269.2370.270.040.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.140.1137.5042.38-0.04-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.110.1146.4343.89-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.100.1165.3866.650.030.04
UTSACUSA0.110.1136.0035.97-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.1146.1546.92-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.140.1118.5218.47-0.09-0.07
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.1148.1547.60-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.130.1134.4834.78-0.04-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.110.114.005.36-0.10-0.10
UABCUSA0.140.1151.8553.220.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.140.1152.1753.700.010.01
ArizonaP120.140.1189.2987.680.110.08
James MadisonCAA0.140.1125.0026.38-0.07-0.05
MemphisAmer0.100.1166.6763.170.030.03
Saint LouisA100.140.1132.1431.02-0.05-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.100.1170.3769.250.040.04
Boston CollegeACC0.130.1132.1430.40-0.05-0.04
DavidsonA100.130.1153.8552.600.010.01
West VirginiaB120.130.1178.5777.800.080.06
KansasB120.100.1189.2987.840.080.08
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.0930.7733.71-0.04-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.110.0925.9327.44-0.05-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.0973.0873.880.050.04
FurmanSC0.030.0964.2964.510.010.03
The CitadelSC0.100.0923.0822.08-0.05-0.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.100.0969.2368.790.040.03
Ball St.MAC0.110.0962.9661.340.030.02
SyracuseACC0.100.0958.6257.910.020.01
VermontAE0.100.0982.7682.940.070.06
Florida St.ACC0.100.0878.5776.210.060.04
Austin PeayOVC0.100.0830.7730.10-0.04-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.070.0864.0064.920.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0829.1729.85-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.070.0885.7185.930.050.06
TowsonCAA0.100.0864.2961.960.030.02
TulsaAmer0.100.0846.1547.81-0.01-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.100.0852.0053.050.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0888.8987.450.050.06
DukeACC0.100.0878.5776.170.060.04
HofstraCAA0.100.0842.8642.57-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.070.0882.1480.660.040.05
Rhode IslandA100.070.0866.6766.780.020.03
UCLAP120.100.0888.8988.050.080.06
ValparaisoHorz0.100.0878.5777.380.060.05
George MasonA100.070.0862.9661.470.020.02
George WashingtonA100.070.0851.8551.210.000.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0860.7159.890.010.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.0830.7734.71-0.04-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.0829.6331.16-0.04-0.03
Iowa St.B120.100.0866.6764.750.030.02
MinnesotaB100.100.0875.0073.470.050.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.0876.0076.570.050.04
JacksonvilleASun0.040.0650.0049.370.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0640.7440.75-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.070.0629.6330.60-0.03-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.040.060.003.38-0.04-0.06
SamfordSC0.070.0655.5656.300.010.01
VMISC0.070.0616.0016.75-0.05-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0644.0045.06-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0628.0028.37-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0630.4331.13-0.03-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.070.0644.0042.77-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.070.0625.0025.07-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0669.2368.600.030.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0643.4843.27-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0637.0435.10-0.01-0.02
DenverSum0.070.0657.1456.680.010.01
DrakeMVC0.060.0622.2223.45-0.04-0.03
DrexelCAA0.030.0628.5729.06-0.01-0.02
ElonCAA0.070.0655.5656.900.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0642.8643.65-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0682.1481.630.040.04
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0635.7135.66-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.030.0659.2660.160.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0657.1457.070.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0651.7250.330.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0644.0046.00-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0651.7249.530.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.070.0650.0048.510.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0648.1547.59-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0614.2913.58-0.02-0.04
SMUAmer0.070.0685.7185.540.050.04
South FloridaAmer0.070.0626.9225.66-0.03-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0642.3143.88-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0660.8762.050.010.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0648.0046.99-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0681.4881.510.040.04
USCP120.070.0677.7875.870.040.03
VillanovaBE0.070.0689.6688.760.050.04
XavierBE0.070.0664.2964.300.020.02
BucknellPat0.070.0573.3373.730.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.030.05100.0099.810.030.05
IllinoisB100.070.0555.5655.020.010.01
LibertyBSth0.070.0557.6957.630.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0556.0055.900.000.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0562.9661.410.010.01
Michigan St.B100.060.0559.2657.930.010.01
Seton HallBE0.070.0562.9661.760.020.01
St. John'sBE0.070.0542.8642.05-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0574.0773.870.020.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0528.0028.91-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0552.1749.960.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0522.2224.27-0.04-0.03
BelmontOVC0.070.0580.0079.920.040.03
DuquesneA100.070.0535.7134.58-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.070.0560.0060.590.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0537.5040.16-0.02-0.01
La SalleA100.070.0553.8554.810.010.01
MassachusettsA100.070.0548.1547.57-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0514.2918.10-0.05-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0551.7253.710.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0565.3864.780.020.02
PurdueB100.070.0582.1480.780.040.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0537.0438.57-0.02-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0558.3359.220.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0548.0047.16-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.070.0562.9663.390.020.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0559.2659.740.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0022.21-0.00-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.040.0369.5771.400.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.040.0325.9326.05-0.02-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.040.0320.0020.88-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.040.0341.6743.49-0.01-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.040.0360.7158.720.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.040.0322.7323.17-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.040.0363.6464.970.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.040.0362.9662.600.010.01
Ohio St.B100.040.0353.5752.340.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0333.3334.37-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.040.0362.9662.450.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0355.5655.660.000.00
HawaiiBW0.040.0348.0047.45-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0355.5655.100.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.040.0357.6958.100.010.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0325.0027.77-0.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0365.3864.150.010.01
CornellIvy0.030.0325.0025.31-0.02-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.040.0326.0925.97-0.02-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0346.1546.96-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0350.0049.670.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0366.6765.300.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0350.0050.080.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0340.7442.89-0.01-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0330.7729.92-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.030.0364.2963.090.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0382.7681.880.020.02
NavyPat0.030.0350.0048.770.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0371.4368.340.010.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0375.0074.370.020.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0374.0773.500.000.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0353.5750.750.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0312.0011.56-0.00-0.02
RadfordBSth0.030.0338.4640.55-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0362.9662.810.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0342.8643.32-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.030.0348.2850.61-0.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0337.0436.81-0.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0366.6767.600.010.01
WisconsinB100.000.0381.4880.840.000.02
Arizona St.P120.030.0346.4344.09-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.030.0333.3334.84-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.030.0378.5777.620.020.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0358.6258.690.010.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0325.0026.71-0.02-0.01
CreightonBE0.030.0377.7875.390.020.01
FordhamA100.030.0344.4444.02-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.030.0344.0045.26-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0342.8645.36-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0316.0016.87-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0331.8233.09-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.030.0344.0043.41-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0316.0016.19-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0320.0021.74-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.030.0350.0050.340.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0346.1546.49-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0334.7833.41-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.030.0372.7374.040.020.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0350.0049.560.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0357.6956.380.010.00
Utah St.MWC0.030.0342.3143.98-0.01-0.00