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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


LSU

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:102.7
Current RPI:99
Expected SOS:53
Current SOS:79
Current Record:11-7
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:2-4
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:98
Expected OOC SOS:161



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-833.00.01%
21-945.40.28%
20-1051.91.18%
19-1161.34.57%
18-1272.110.56%
17-1384.919.24%
16-1499.825.04%
15-15116.620.52%
14-16134.612.43%
13-17151.54.95%
12-18166.91.11%
11-19185.30.10%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for LSU.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Alcorn St. (343.0)SWACH99-59W100%0.0
11-16Samford (260.5)SCH105-86W100%0.0
11-20Michigan (37.6)B10N77-75W100%0.0
11-21Notre Dame (57.8)ACCN53-92L0%0.0
11-22Marquette (52.5)BEN84-94L0%0.0
11-29Tennessee Martin (301.8)OVCH84-60W100%0.0
12-10UNC Wilmington (261.9)CAAH97-84W100%0.0
12-13Houston (42.5)AmerH80-77W100%0.0
12-16Stephen F. Austin (123.5)SlndH82-83L0%0.0
12-19Sam Houston St. (221.0)SlndH80-58W100%0.0
12-22North Florida (241.9)ASunH104-52W100%0.0
12-28Memphis (118.6)AmerA61-71W100%0.0
1-3Kentucky (20.4)SECH71-74L0%0.0
1-6Texas A&M (29.6)SECA68-69W100%0.0
1-10Arkansas (41.8)SECA54-75W100%0.0
1-13Alabama (40.5)SECH66-74L0%0.0
1-16Georgia (68.0)SECH60-61L0%0.0
1-20Vanderbilt (143.0)SECA77-71L0%0.0
1-23Texas A&M (29.6)SECH0-041%-2.6
1-27Auburn (17.9)SECA0-024%-7.9
1-31Tennessee (24.1)SECA0-022%-8.5
2-3Arkansas (41.8)SECH0-044%-1.6
2-7Florida (25.5)SECA0-017%-10.5
2-10Mississippi (116.0)SECH0-065%4.3
2-13Alabama (40.5)SECA0-030%-5.7
2-17Missouri (45.0)SECH0-045%-1.3
2-20Vanderbilt (143.0)SECH0-066%4.6
2-24Georgia (68.0)SECA0-037%-3.7
2-28South Carolina (70.8)SECA0-038%-3.4
3-3Mississippi St. (110.7)SECH0-065%4.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

LSU's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


LSU's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  LSU.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LSUSEC26.3626.1153.4148.411.80-0.83
ArkansasSEC2.933.9672.2266.711.301.32
AlabamaSEC3.073.9366.6757.201.020.57
Texas A&MSEC2.923.9372.2266.331.301.28
VanderbiltSEC3.013.9133.3333.40-1.00-1.30
GeorgiaSEC3.003.9064.7154.100.880.32
Mississippi St.SEC0.462.4172.2259.740.200.47
MissouriSEC0.392.3866.6763.500.130.64
FloridaSEC0.372.3873.6871.190.171.01
AuburnSEC0.222.3589.4777.030.181.27
MississippiSEC0.312.3252.6346.230.02-0.18
KentuckySEC3.002.3272.2266.901.330.78
TennesseeSEC0.292.3272.2268.630.130.86
South CarolinaSEC0.302.2961.1151.550.070.07
Stephen F. AustinSlnd2.781.7878.5778.031.591.00
MemphisAmer2.931.7868.4260.491.080.37
North FloridaASun2.841.7833.3336.45-0.95-0.48
Sam Houston St.Slnd2.781.7646.6751.02-0.190.04
HoustonAmer2.851.7583.3375.501.900.89
SamfordSC2.921.7529.4133.82-1.20-0.57
MarquetteBE2.851.7266.6759.190.950.32
Alcorn St.SWAC2.851.7213.3326.43-2.09-0.81
MichiganB102.851.7080.0073.181.710.79
Tennessee MartinOVC2.781.6927.7832.63-1.23-0.59
Notre DameACC2.781.6761.1159.670.620.32
UNC WilmingtonCAA2.781.6723.5328.34-1.47-0.72
TempleAmer0.220.1952.6351.740.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.160.187.6923.28-0.14-0.09
Alabama A&MSWAC0.300.1710.5316.75-0.24-0.11
MercerSC0.220.1744.4454.86-0.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.210.1680.0075.060.130.08
CincinnatiAmer0.070.1689.4785.550.050.12
UCFAmer0.140.1668.4260.860.050.04
ConnecticutAmer0.140.1652.6347.390.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.170.1545.0049.29-0.02-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.250.157.6920.09-0.21-0.09
Houston BaptistSlnd0.160.155.8819.35-0.14-0.09
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.230.1421.0539.48-0.13-0.03
LipscombASun0.150.1452.9459.340.010.03
TulaneAmer0.230.1463.1657.890.060.02
East CarolinaAmer0.150.1442.1132.47-0.02-0.05
Georgia TechACC0.220.1452.6343.110.01-0.02
Wichita St.Amer0.290.1478.9577.380.170.08
MinnesotaB100.150.1463.6457.630.040.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.180.1252.9452.650.010.01
LamarSlnd0.090.1250.0054.890.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.240.1252.9455.030.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.240.1237.5045.24-0.06-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.150.1211.1118.00-0.12-0.07
FurmanSC0.150.1266.6768.540.050.04
WoffordSC0.150.1268.7563.690.060.03
Austin PeayOVC0.150.1144.4446.00-0.02-0.01
ClemsonACC0.150.1184.2173.240.100.05
PurdueB100.140.1190.4888.370.110.09
Kansas St.B120.070.1173.6862.720.030.03
Seton HallBE0.150.1175.0067.890.070.04
South FloridaAmer0.070.1135.0026.12-0.02-0.05
TexasB120.140.1163.1657.630.040.02
West VirginiaB120.070.1184.2178.170.050.06
ArizonaP120.150.1180.0078.940.090.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.1172.2274.710.030.05
OklahomaB120.070.1177.7867.910.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.070.1168.4254.090.030.01
USCP120.150.1171.4368.280.060.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.180.097.1414.82-0.15-0.07
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.160.0930.0036.50-0.06-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.160.090.0010.67-0.16-0.07
SouthernSWAC0.070.0927.7840.97-0.03-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.160.0966.6765.640.050.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0916.6724.260.00-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0928.5731.26-0.03-0.03
BaylorB120.170.0961.1156.090.040.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.170.0910.0019.63-0.13-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.170.0944.4450.31-0.020.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.150.0916.6724.91-0.10-0.04
DelawareCAA0.230.0947.3743.02-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.150.0930.0030.99-0.06-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.140.0933.3333.77-0.05-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0968.7567.600.030.03
CreightonBE0.090.0975.0070.700.040.04
Iowa St.B120.090.0961.1147.220.02-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0957.8959.490.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0925.0028.240.00-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.150.0922.2228.59-0.08-0.04
Little RockSB0.160.0922.2225.25-0.09-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.150.0978.9574.190.090.04
Michigan St.B100.210.0985.0083.200.150.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.220.0942.1144.96-0.03-0.01
VCUA100.210.0960.0059.700.040.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.150.0929.4133.93-0.06-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0970.0068.220.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.170.0852.6355.290.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.150.0877.7879.150.080.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0831.5832.72-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.070.0870.5975.950.030.04
IllinoisB100.140.0847.3744.27-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.150.0842.1134.31-0.02-0.03
MassachusettsA100.080.0850.0046.810.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0865.0056.340.020.01
ProvidenceBE0.150.0870.0060.470.060.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0847.3742.160.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.070.0894.7490.310.070.07
Wake ForestACC0.070.0842.1140.46-0.01-0.02
BelmontOVC0.150.0871.4374.660.060.04
BryantNEC0.150.089.5217.12-0.12-0.05
SMUAmer0.000.0870.0070.570.000.03
WinthropBSth0.080.0850.0059.450.000.02
LouisvilleACC0.220.0878.9569.790.120.03
Penn St.B100.070.0861.9055.760.020.01
TulsaAmer0.210.0855.0053.320.020.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0894.7486.140.070.06
Virginia TechACC0.070.0868.4257.740.030.01
KansasB120.070.0884.2179.750.050.05
Northern KentuckyHorz0.140.0866.6773.210.050.04
TroySB0.150.0835.2942.76-0.04-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.0636.8444.11-0.02-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0638.8943.43-0.02-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0650.0051.380.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0621.0544.26-0.05-0.01
ElonCAA0.080.0652.6351.080.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0657.8966.260.000.02
NJITASun0.070.0638.8942.61-0.02-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.080.0663.1663.220.020.02
StetsonASun0.000.0633.3336.930.00-0.02
TowsonCAA0.150.0663.1665.970.040.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0664.7159.990.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.150.0662.5058.690.040.01
ValparaisoMVC0.150.0647.3748.77-0.01-0.00
RiceCUSA0.090.0611.1117.68-0.07-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.160.0666.6766.020.050.02
Ball St.MAC0.150.0661.1158.700.030.01
FIUCUSA0.070.0635.2935.54-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.070.0677.7870.480.040.02
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0623.5328.69-0.04-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0636.8432.76-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0642.1143.510.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.080.0618.7518.36-0.05-0.04
VMISC0.000.0625.0024.150.00-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0638.8935.37-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0665.0054.670.000.01
ButlerBE0.070.0666.6763.070.020.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0656.2556.830.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.150.060.003.07-0.15-0.05
GeorgetownBE0.070.0668.4254.070.030.00
Green BayHorz0.000.0625.0027.940.00-0.02
IndianaB100.140.0657.8950.710.020.00
IowaB100.070.0647.6244.02-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.070.0670.0065.250.030.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0655.0050.330.000.00
Ohio St.B100.070.0680.9576.520.040.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0690.4888.960.060.04
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0658.8262.820.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0641.1838.47-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0652.9452.230.000.00
WisconsinB100.070.0650.0046.300.00-0.00
XavierBE0.070.0685.7180.080.050.03
DaytonA100.000.0547.3750.940.000.00
DukeACC0.000.0589.4785.210.000.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.0573.6869.640.000.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0547.3746.090.00-0.00
UCLAP120.140.0565.0062.050.040.01
UtahP120.000.0563.1659.710.000.01
VermontAE0.150.0575.0077.850.070.03
Arizona St.P120.070.0578.9576.130.040.03
BucknellPat0.070.0561.9068.020.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.070.0572.2274.930.030.03
BYUWCC0.070.0580.9576.240.050.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0529.4133.20-0.03-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0545.0041.33-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0566.6763.420.020.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0538.8940.780.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0530.0032.52-0.03-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.070.0510.5318.34-0.06-0.03
RadfordBSth0.070.0557.8958.850.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.070.0583.3381.430.050.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0527.7834.50-0.03-0.02
TCUB120.000.0573.6865.600.000.02
UABCUSA0.070.0561.1164.130.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0570.5969.630.030.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0552.6358.590.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0560.0062.030.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0545.0045.03-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.090.0364.7166.850.030.01
LongwoodBSth0.090.0316.6716.16-0.06-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.0326.6729.04-0.04-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0344.4450.08-0.010.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0333.3332.94-0.03-0.01
YaleIvy0.090.0341.1847.56-0.02-0.00
CampbellBSth0.080.0347.0647.41-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.080.0358.8261.450.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0346.6746.97-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.080.0310.5327.29-0.06-0.01
AkronMAC0.070.0347.0644.91-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0327.7831.11-0.03-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0368.4263.650.030.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0343.7554.11-0.010.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0335.2940.48-0.02-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0357.8953.190.000.00
UMKCWAC0.070.0321.0524.75-0.04-0.01
AmericanPat0.070.0326.3228.11-0.03-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0327.7838.140.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.070.0321.4326.35-0.04-0.01
DetroitHorz0.070.0321.0525.97-0.04-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0338.8944.08-0.02-0.00
High PointBSth0.000.0343.7549.230.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.070.0350.0054.190.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0340.0043.350.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0347.0641.410.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.070.0366.6759.820.020.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0341.1839.16-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0340.0030.870.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0327.7827.100.00-0.01
RutgersB100.070.0355.0046.690.01-0.00
Saint LouisA100.070.0347.3746.92-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0333.3335.21-0.02-0.01
SyracuseACC0.070.0368.4261.230.030.01
Texas TechB120.000.0378.9571.810.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.070.0317.6523.86-0.04-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0333.3334.100.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0364.7164.570.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0361.1156.830.000.00
AlbanyAE0.070.0371.4370.240.030.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0365.0057.880.000.00
CornellIvy0.000.0333.3333.230.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.070.0352.6351.690.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0345.0041.300.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0366.6765.520.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.0380.9583.260.000.02
HarvardIvy0.070.0337.5046.69-0.02-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0342.1146.00-0.01-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0344.4446.020.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0383.3381.370.000.02
Loyola MDPat0.070.0322.2228.66-0.04-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0327.7841.03-0.03-0.00
New HampshireAE0.000.0333.3340.080.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0318.7536.820.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.070.0328.5729.94-0.03-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0372.2272.980.000.01
StanfordP120.000.0355.0050.370.000.00