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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


LSU

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:193.0
Current RPI:193
Expected SOS:38
Current SOS:38
Current Record:10-21
Expected Record:10-21
Current Conf Record:2-17
Expected Conf Record:2-17
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:33
Expected OOC SOS:13



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-21193.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for LSU.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Wofford (190.0)SCH91-69W100%0.0
11-15Southern Miss (331.0)CUSAH78-61W100%0.0
11-18North Florida (217.0)ASunH78-70W100%0.0
11-23Wichita St. (32.0)MVCN82-47L0%0.0
11-24Old Dominion (138.0)CUSAN60-66W100%0.0
11-25VCU (22.0)A10N74-85L0%0.0
11-29Houston (54.0)AmerH84-65W100%0.0
12-13North Carolina Central (199.0)MEACH70-66W100%0.0
12-17Texas Southern (108.0)SWACH88-80W100%0.0
12-19College of Charleston (64.0)CAAH75-65W100%0.0
12-22Wake Forest (38.0)ACCA110-76L0%0.0
12-29Vanderbilt (44.0)SECH89-96L0%0.0
1-4Missouri (257.0)SECA77-88W100%0.0
1-7Mississippi St. (150.0)SECH78-95L0%0.0
1-11Texas A&M (92.0)SECA92-62L0%0.0
1-14Alabama (78.0)SECH66-81L0%0.0
1-18Auburn (113.0)SECA78-74L0%0.0
1-21Arkansas (28.0)SECA99-86L0%0.0
1-25Florida (10.0)SECH71-106L0%0.0
1-28Texas Tech (124.0)B12A77-64L0%0.0
2-1South Carolina (42.0)SECH63-88L0%0.0
2-4Texas A&M (92.0)SECH73-85L0%0.0
2-7Kentucky (3.0)SECA92-85L0%0.0
2-11Arkansas (28.0)SECH70-78L0%0.0
2-14Mississippi (77.0)SECA96-76L0%0.0
2-18Alabama (78.0)SECA90-72L0%0.0
2-21Auburn (113.0)SECH75-98L0%0.0
2-25Georgia (52.0)SECA82-80L0%0.0
3-1Tennessee (82.0)SECH92-82W100%0.0
3-4Mississippi St. (150.0)SECA88-76L0%0.0
3-8Mississippi St. (150.0)SECN79-52L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

LSU's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


LSU's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  LSU.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LSUSEC26.1326.1326.2826.28-12.40-12.40
Mississippi St.SEC5.445.4444.8344.83-0.56-0.56
AlabamaSEC3.953.9554.8454.840.380.38
ArkansasSEC3.903.9071.8871.881.711.71
AuburnSEC3.853.8553.3353.330.260.26
Texas A&MSEC3.793.7948.2848.28-0.13-0.13
MissouriSEC2.392.3925.8125.81-1.15-1.15
VanderbiltSEC2.362.3654.5554.550.210.21
MississippiSEC2.342.3459.3859.380.440.44
KentuckySEC2.342.3484.8584.851.631.63
South CarolinaSEC2.292.2966.6766.670.760.76
GeorgiaSEC2.292.2954.8454.840.220.22
TennesseeSEC2.262.2650.0050.000.000.00
FloridaSEC2.262.2674.1974.191.091.09
North FloridaASun1.741.7437.9337.93-0.42-0.42
Southern MissCUSA1.711.7125.0025.00-0.86-0.86
Old DominionCUSA1.661.6663.3363.330.440.44
Texas TechB121.661.6654.8454.840.160.16
HoustonAmer1.661.6670.0070.000.660.66
VCUA101.641.6475.7675.760.840.84
College of CharlestonCAA1.641.6475.0075.000.820.82
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.641.6475.8675.860.850.85
Wake ForestACC1.641.6458.0658.060.260.26
Texas SouthernSWAC1.611.6169.7069.700.640.64
Wichita St.MVC1.611.6187.5087.501.211.21
WoffordSC1.611.6144.8344.83-0.17-0.17
Coastal CarolinaSB0.200.2045.1645.16-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.200.2033.3333.33-0.07-0.07
RiceCUSA0.180.1864.5264.520.050.05
UTEPCUSA0.180.1845.1645.16-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.180.1846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.160.1678.1278.120.090.09
ConnecticutAmer0.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.150.1536.0036.00-0.04-0.04
UCFAmer0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
Georgia St.SB0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
TCUB120.150.1554.5554.550.010.01
ClemsonACC0.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
OklahomaB120.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
RichmondA100.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
North TexasCUSA0.130.1321.4321.43-0.08-0.08
MarshallCUSA0.130.1355.8855.880.020.02
LipscombASun0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.130.1358.6258.620.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Georgia TechACC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
Boston CollegeACC0.130.1328.1228.12-0.06-0.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.130.1387.8887.880.100.10
BradleyMVC0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
James MadisonCAA0.120.1228.1228.12-0.05-0.05
BaylorB120.120.1277.4277.420.070.07
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
DaytonA100.120.1276.6776.670.060.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
UTSACUSA0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.110.1117.2417.24-0.07-0.07
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.1176.6776.670.060.06
UNC GreensboroSC0.110.1170.9770.970.040.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
TulaneAmer0.110.1119.3519.35-0.06-0.06
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Miami FLACC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
HowardMEAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
East CarolinaAmer0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
MemphisAmer0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
West VirginiaB120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.100.1088.2488.240.080.08
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.106.906.90-0.09-0.09
Boise St.MWC0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
TowsonCAA0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
KansasB120.100.1087.5087.500.070.07
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
George MasonA100.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
DavidsonA100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Saint LouisA100.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
VermontAE0.080.0884.8584.850.050.05
Florida St.ACC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
The CitadelSC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
SyracuseACC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
TulsaAmer0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
UCLAP120.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
DukeACC0.080.0877.1477.140.040.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.080.0812.9012.90-0.06-0.06
UMKCWAC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
OregonP120.070.0784.8584.850.050.05
William & MaryCAA0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0781.2581.250.050.05
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
George WashingtonA100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
HofstraCAA0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.053.333.33-0.05-0.05
SamfordSC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
VMISC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
SMUAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
USCP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0596.9796.970.050.05
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
BelmontOVC0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
BucknellPat0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
IllinoisB100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0361.5461.540.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
TempleAmer0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
CreightonBE0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Arizona St.P120.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.020.0278.5778.570.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00