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Through games of Feb 13, 2016.


Marquette

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:125.2
Current RPI:116
Expected SOS:94
Current SOS:101
Current Record:16-10
Expected Record:18-13
Current Conf Record:5-8
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:138
Expected OOC SOS:305



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1079.00.10%
20-1189.02.07%
19-12103.612.86%
18-13117.934.79%
17-14133.236.40%
16-15148.513.77%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Marquette.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Belmont (86.4)OVCH80-83L0%0.0
11-16IUPUI (186.1)SumH75-71W100%0.0
11-19Iowa (8.2)B10H61-89L0%0.0
11-23LSU (77.8)SECN81-80W100%0.0
11-24Arizona St. (71.2)P12N73-78W100%0.0
11-29Jackson St. (223.4)SWACH80-61W100%0.0
12-2Grambling St. (347.6)SWACH95-49W100%0.0
12-5Maine (310.7)AEH104-67W100%0.0
12-8San Jose St. (294.3)MWCH80-62W100%0.0
12-12Wisconsin (48.7)B10A55-57W100%0.0
12-21Chicago St. (344.4)WACH91-74W100%0.0
12-27Presbyterian (339.9)BSthH84-66W100%0.0
12-30Seton Hall (54.6)BEH63-83L0%0.0
1-2Georgetown (75.5)BEA80-70L0%0.0
1-5Providence (47.8)BEA64-65W100%0.0
1-9St. John's (231.1)BEH81-75W100%0.0
1-13Villanova (3.2)BEA83-68L0%0.0
1-16Xavier (7.0)BEH66-74L0%0.0
1-20DePaul (167.9)BEH56-57L0%0.0
1-24St. John's (231.1)BEA73-78W100%0.0
1-27Stetson (312.2)ASunH74-60W100%0.0
1-30Butler (58.2)BEH75-69W100%0.0
2-3Seton Hall (54.6)BEA79-62L0%0.0
2-6Xavier (7.0)BEA90-82L0%0.0
2-10Providence (47.8)BEH96-91W100%0.0
2-13Creighton (74.1)BEH62-65L0%0.0
2-20DePaul (167.9)BEA0-055%1.3
2-24Creighton (74.1)BEA0-021%-8.8
2-27Villanova (3.2)BEH0-016%-10.7
3-1Georgetown (75.5)BEH0-048%-0.5
3-5Butler (58.2)BEA0-014%-11.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Marquette's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Marquette's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Marquette.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MarquetteBE26.3326.3254.2450.862.230.45
CreightonBE2.664.1364.0061.670.740.96
GeorgetownBE2.654.1052.0050.020.110.00
DePaulBE2.534.1030.4331.10-0.99-1.55
ButlerBE2.694.1070.8368.461.121.51
ProvidenceBE4.384.0879.1775.012.562.04
VillanovaBE2.654.0887.5086.251.992.96
Seton HallBE4.344.0768.1865.791.581.29
St. John'sBE4.424.0726.0925.39-2.11-2.00
XavierBE4.424.0786.9683.113.272.70
IUPUISum2.001.7240.0039.85-0.40-0.35
Arizona St.P122.001.6958.3355.400.330.18
WisconsinB101.961.6966.6762.000.650.41
Jackson St.SWAC1.971.6750.0054.840.000.16
Grambling St.SWAC1.961.6715.0017.77-1.38-1.08
Chicago St.WAC1.961.674.357.82-1.79-1.41
BelmontOVC1.961.6464.0063.910.550.46
IowaB101.921.6478.2678.081.090.92
LSUSEC1.921.6166.6763.400.640.43
MaineAE1.921.6133.3332.28-0.64-0.57
PresbyterianBSth1.921.6123.8123.51-1.01-0.85
San Jose St.MWC1.921.6123.8123.44-1.01-0.86
StetsonASun1.921.6122.7326.65-1.05-0.75
RutgersB100.270.2120.8319.90-0.16-0.13
IndianaB100.230.2180.0075.820.140.11
Western IllinoisSum0.230.1930.0030.99-0.09-0.07
PurdueB100.190.1976.9275.980.100.10
Texas SouthernSWAC0.170.1747.8355.29-0.010.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.190.1728.0028.34-0.08-0.07
NJITASun0.230.1757.6957.310.040.02
IllinoisB100.190.1644.0043.45-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.190.1680.0081.510.120.10
StanfordP120.120.1650.0046.650.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.150.1653.8551.650.010.01
OklahomaB120.150.1683.3380.440.100.10
Tennessee St.OVC0.170.1569.5767.210.070.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.130.1431.8236.20-0.05-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.170.1413.0418.03-0.13-0.09
NorthwesternB100.160.1465.3862.780.050.03
WagnerNEC0.200.1462.5063.810.050.04
MichiganB100.120.1372.0068.710.050.05
Penn St.B100.120.1348.0045.86-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.160.1383.3378.690.100.08
BrownIvy0.150.1328.5728.84-0.06-0.06
SyracuseACC0.150.1368.0064.130.050.04
TempleAmer0.080.1365.2262.390.020.03
MarylandB100.150.1384.0080.600.100.08
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.1235.0039.98-0.03-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.180.1242.8641.45-0.03-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.1223.0825.64-0.05-0.06
LipscombASun0.120.1230.7732.74-0.04-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.1219.2321.27-0.05-0.07
SouthernSWAC0.180.1263.6465.350.050.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.170.1141.6744.46-0.03-0.01
The CitadelSC0.120.1129.1729.25-0.05-0.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.1162.5063.540.020.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.120.1166.6764.740.040.03
UMBCAE0.150.1123.0825.88-0.08-0.05
Miami OHMAC0.160.1133.3331.74-0.05-0.04
HartfordAE0.110.1124.0024.54-0.06-0.05
CincinnatiAmer0.120.1173.0871.580.050.05
George WashingtonA100.120.1172.0070.430.050.04
AlabamaSEC0.120.1162.5059.270.030.02
USCP120.150.1175.0071.170.080.04
ArizonaP120.110.1080.0078.720.070.06
BryantNEC0.110.1023.0823.72-0.06-0.05
MassachusettsA100.110.1043.4842.31-0.01-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.130.0925.0024.15-0.06-0.05
LongwoodBSth0.080.0920.8322.68-0.05-0.05
SeattleWAC0.120.0945.4544.05-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.120.0960.0061.790.020.02
VMISC0.080.0819.0519.66-0.05-0.05
UMKCWAC0.080.0831.8233.29-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.0823.0823.73-0.06-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.110.0879.1779.630.070.05
IPFWSum0.080.0872.0069.300.030.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.120.0868.1868.210.040.03
RadfordBSth0.080.0850.0051.760.000.00
Ohio St.B100.080.0861.5455.940.020.01
MinnesotaB100.040.0825.0027.21-0.02-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.120.0833.3332.89-0.04-0.03
FordhamA100.120.0850.0050.420.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0820.0022.33-0.05-0.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.0843.4844.22-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.110.0839.1337.90-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.120.0887.5083.680.090.05
DrakeMVC0.080.0820.0022.69-0.05-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.080.0866.6763.280.030.02
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0848.0047.35-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0840.0039.49-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0813.6414.63-0.05-0.06
Wichita St.MVC0.120.0870.8373.510.050.04
Boston CollegeACC0.110.0829.1726.62-0.05-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0872.0070.630.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.110.0872.0072.970.050.04
AuburnSEC0.120.0837.5034.54-0.03-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.120.0860.8757.660.030.01
MississippiSEC0.120.0864.0061.040.030.02
MissouriSEC0.080.0836.0032.69-0.02-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.110.0844.0043.30-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.040.0848.0045.69-0.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.120.0860.0060.860.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.120.0840.0039.15-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0818.1823.04-0.05-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.0852.0049.600.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.080.0876.0074.450.040.04
Texas A&MSEC0.120.0872.0072.950.050.04
CampbellBSth0.090.0634.7834.91-0.03-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0626.0926.99-0.04-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.090.0659.0958.530.020.01
High PointBSth0.040.0659.0960.710.010.01
LibertyBSth0.040.0637.5038.73-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.090.0658.3356.260.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.090.0641.6737.79-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.040.0630.4334.38-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.040.0662.5061.440.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0652.1751.940.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0640.0039.42-0.02-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.040.0647.8351.11-0.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0660.8760.120.020.01
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0645.8346.51-0.01-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.090.0645.8345.02-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.090.0660.0060.920.020.01
San Diego St.MWC0.040.0670.8370.070.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.040.0647.6249.23-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.040.0641.6741.64-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0673.9172.350.040.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.040.0683.3382.060.030.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0666.6768.770.030.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.040.0613.6414.93-0.03-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.040.0631.8234.35-0.01-0.02
MemphisAmer0.080.0656.0056.660.010.01
UNLVMWC0.080.0654.1755.730.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.080.0662.5059.920.020.01
Iowa St.B120.080.0672.0069.230.040.02
AlbanyAE0.040.0673.0873.780.020.03
BinghamtonAE0.040.0624.0026.42-0.02-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0654.1755.060.010.01
New HampshireAE0.080.0659.0956.880.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.040.0682.6183.030.030.04
UMass LowellAE0.080.0637.5037.69-0.02-0.01
VermontAE0.080.0652.0054.840.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.040.0648.1547.52-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.080.0554.1756.890.010.01
OregonP120.080.0576.0074.790.040.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.040.0586.9686.020.030.04
BradleyMVC0.080.0512.0012.00-0.06-0.04
DenverSum0.070.0550.0048.570.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.040.0513.6413.35-0.03-0.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.0555.5652.580.010.00
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0550.0053.010.000.00
Miami FLACC0.040.0582.6177.560.030.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.040.0560.0059.940.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0523.0823.86-0.04-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.040.0545.8351.18-0.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.040.0558.3358.450.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0530.4332.19-0.03-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0543.4844.13-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.040.0542.3143.13-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0575.0075.150.040.03
South FloridaAmer0.080.0520.0019.75-0.05-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0540.0043.52-0.02-0.01
TroySB0.080.0526.0926.58-0.04-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.040.0534.7834.89-0.01-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.080.0556.0057.240.010.01
AkronMAC0.040.0579.1779.050.020.03
ArkansasSEC0.040.0548.0050.99-0.000.00
CaliforniaP120.040.0568.0065.640.010.02
CharlotteCUSA0.040.0540.0043.15-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.040.0524.0024.18-0.02-0.03
DukeACC0.040.0576.0073.090.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.040.0558.3358.870.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.040.0550.0050.880.000.00
FloridaSEC0.040.0564.0062.910.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.040.0552.0050.510.000.00
HarvardIvy0.070.0536.3638.01-0.02-0.01
La SalleA100.040.0518.1820.09-0.02-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.040.0545.8343.81-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.040.0528.0031.38-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.040.0580.7781.920.020.03
North TexasCUSA0.040.0530.4331.63-0.01-0.02
PennIvy0.040.0540.0039.62-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.070.0556.0055.660.010.01
RiderMAAC0.070.0538.4641.33-0.02-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.040.0584.0081.460.030.03
UCLAP120.040.0554.1753.010.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.040.0578.2675.550.020.03
UTSACUSA0.040.0512.5012.74-0.03-0.04
VirginiaACC0.040.0580.0077.220.020.03
WashingtonP120.080.0560.0059.040.020.01
Washington St.P120.080.0534.7831.61-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.040.0360.0059.840.010.01
FurmanSC0.040.0357.6956.200.010.00
WinthropBSth0.040.0368.1865.870.020.01
WoffordSC0.040.0348.0048.31-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.040.0341.6743.11-0.01-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.040.0340.9139.87-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.040.0358.3356.810.010.00
MontanaBSky0.040.0361.9062.900.010.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0359.0956.770.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0332.0033.77-0.02-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.040.0329.1727.08-0.02-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.040.0332.0031.18-0.02-0.01
ToledoMAC0.040.0362.5063.370.010.01
UCFAmer0.040.0347.8343.65-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0369.5771.830.020.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0352.0048.970.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.040.0380.0078.490.030.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.040.0361.9060.140.010.01
OaklandHorz0.040.0366.6766.290.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.040.0339.1338.12-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.040.0356.0055.430.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.040.0338.4640.70-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.040.0370.8365.330.020.01
BYUWCC0.040.0369.2371.010.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.040.0312.0012.46-0.03-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.040.0325.0024.93-0.02-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.040.0337.5038.17-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.040.0341.6739.59-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.040.0350.0051.400.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.040.0369.5769.090.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.040.0350.0051.470.000.00
OhioMAC0.040.0365.2264.670.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.040.0333.3333.43-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.040.0340.9141.22-0.01-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.040.0312.5014.81-0.03-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.040.0318.1825.82-0.03-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.040.0328.5730.34-0.02-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.040.0352.0052.460.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.040.0352.3851.410.000.00
Notre DameACC0.040.0372.0070.180.020.01
AmericanPat0.040.0328.0030.05-0.02-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.040.0362.5060.760.010.01
ColoradoP120.000.0372.0066.650.000.01
HoustonAmer0.040.0372.0068.870.020.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.040.0347.6248.51-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.040.0321.0529.38-0.02-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.040.0358.3360.350.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0341.6741.41-0.01-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.040.0342.8646.51-0.01-0.00
Oregon St.P120.040.0360.8757.820.010.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.040.0338.1043.56-0.01-0.00
SienaMAAC0.040.0366.6766.950.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.040.0373.6876.550.020.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.040.0372.7371.580.020.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.040.0345.4551.69-0.000.00
UtahP120.000.0370.8368.550.000.01
VCUA100.040.0372.0071.480.020.01