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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Marquette

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:15.5
Current RPI:12
Expected SOS:23
Current SOS:18
Current Record:19-5
Expected Record:24-7
Current Conf Record:8-3
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Probability of Auto Bid:13.93%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:30
Expected OOC SOS:99



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-57.04.30%
25-69.217.86%
24-712.531.30%
23-817.428.40%
22-923.913.81%
21-1031.53.86%
20-1142.00.45%
19-1254.00.01%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Marquette.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Mount St. Mary's (291.1)NECH91-37W100%0.0
11-14Norfolk St. (131.7)MEACH99-68W100%0.0
11-18Winthrop (269.0)BSthN95-73W100%0.0
11-20Mississippi (70.0)SECN96-66W100%0.0
11-21Norfolk St. (131.7)MEACN59-57W100%0.0
11-28Jacksonville (285.8)ASunH88-56W100%0.0
12-3Wisconsin (21.8)B10A54-61W100%0.0
12-6Washington (69.1)P12N79-77W100%0.0
12-10Wisconsin Green Bay (187.0)HorzH79-61W100%0.0
12-17Northern Colorado (251.5)BSkyH93-72W100%0.0
12-19Louisiana St. (85.2)SECA67-59L0%0.0
12-22Wisconsin Milwaukee (127.3)HorzH64-50W100%0.0
12-29Vanderbilt (31.5)SECH57-74L0%0.0
1-1Villanova (98.5)BEH81-77W100%0.0
1-4Georgetown (13.9)BEA73-70L0%0.0
1-7Syracuse (2.1)BEA73-66L0%0.0
1-11St. John's (151.1)BEH83-64W100%0.0
1-14Pittsburgh (74.5)BEH62-57W100%0.0
1-16Louisville (25.3)BEH74-63W100%0.0
1-21Providence (146.8)BEA72-79W100%0.0
1-24South Florida (96.1)BEH67-47W100%0.0
1-28Villanova (98.5)BEA78-82W100%0.0
1-31Seton Hall (53.1)BEH66-59W100%0.0
2-4Notre Dame (66.5)BEA76-59L0%0.0
2-6DePaul (187.2)BEA0-083%10.6
2-11Cincinnati (89.8)BEH0-078%8.2
2-18Connecticut (27.1)BEA0-048%-0.6
2-22Rutgers (141.7)BEH0-088%12.8
2-24West Virginia (31.4)BEA0-045%-1.4
2-29Cincinnati (89.8)BEA0-055%1.5
3-3Georgetown (13.9)BEH0-058%2.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Marquette's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Marquette's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Marquette.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MarquetteBE26.3026.0680.2177.2815.8914.22
CincinnatiBE0.323.7369.5767.680.131.32
VillanovaBE4.393.7350.0049.370.00-0.05
GeorgetownBE2.313.7080.0077.891.392.06
Norfolk St.MEAC4.173.2375.0074.842.081.60
St. John'sBE2.412.2045.4541.62-0.22-0.37
DePaulBE0.512.2050.0043.740.00-0.28
ProvidenceBE2.452.1859.0951.950.450.08
RutgersBE0.332.1750.0047.970.00-0.09
LouisvilleBE2.502.1781.8275.081.591.09
South FloridaBE2.412.1757.1450.280.340.01
Notre DameBE2.312.1463.6461.410.630.49
PittsburghBE2.312.1463.6460.100.630.43
Seton HallBE2.402.1468.1865.930.870.68
SyracuseBE2.452.1495.6591.742.241.79
ConnecticutBE0.322.1468.1864.400.120.62
West VirginiaBE0.322.1465.2265.520.100.67
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz2.231.7359.0959.790.410.34
MississippiSEC2.131.7266.6758.660.710.30
Louisiana St.SEC2.131.7257.1455.800.300.20
Wisconsin Green BayHorz2.221.6936.8440.90-0.58-0.31
VanderbiltSEC2.131.6968.1864.730.770.50
WisconsinB102.181.6778.2676.441.230.88
JacksonvilleASun2.131.6418.1822.78-1.35-0.89
WinthropBSth2.131.6436.3635.89-0.58-0.46
Mount St. Mary'sNEC2.081.6127.2729.63-0.95-0.66
Northern ColoradoBSky2.081.6131.5832.80-0.77-0.55
WashingtonP122.081.6172.7368.830.950.61
AlabamaSEC0.230.2268.1869.100.090.08
GeorgiaSEC0.180.2145.4541.20-0.02-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.280.1952.3857.860.010.03
AuburnSEC0.230.1956.5248.810.03-0.00
FloridaSEC0.230.1982.6177.630.150.10
Cleveland St.Horz0.190.1781.8280.430.120.10
DetroitHorz0.190.1747.8349.03-0.01-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.100.1741.6740.61-0.02-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.280.1656.5255.950.040.02
MonmouthNEC0.190.1628.0028.91-0.08-0.07
ArkansasSEC0.190.1669.5765.150.070.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.140.1678.2672.340.080.07
TennesseeSEC0.090.1645.4544.66-0.01-0.02
KentuckySEC0.140.1695.8392.570.130.13
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.100.1419.0521.29-0.06-0.08
ButlerHorz0.240.1450.0050.800.000.00
MemphisCUSA0.140.1469.5771.510.060.06
AmericanPat0.190.1465.2263.790.060.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.190.1442.1149.81-0.03-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.140.1435.2939.85-0.04-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.090.1436.3638.48-0.03-0.03
Penn St.B100.180.1341.6738.67-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.140.1340.9139.56-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1230.0030.06-0.04-0.05
ValparaisoHorz0.190.1265.2263.610.060.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.140.1250.0051.530.000.00
HowardMEAC0.140.1118.1822.22-0.09-0.06
IUPUISum0.140.1134.7835.50-0.04-0.03
Long IslandNEC0.190.1170.8371.050.080.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.1120.0019.96-0.06-0.07
Morgan St.MEAC0.190.1125.0037.58-0.09-0.03
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.090.1133.3338.38-0.03-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.050.1140.9143.66-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.090.118.7013.10-0.07-0.08
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.1119.0522.37-0.06-0.06
Longwoodind0.090.1130.0027.84-0.04-0.05
WagnerNEC0.050.1182.6184.570.030.08
BryantNEC0.140.118.3310.86-0.11-0.08
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.140.118.7012.13-0.11-0.08
MinnesotaB100.050.1169.5761.310.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.1150.0058.160.000.02
MarshallCUSA0.040.1059.0959.720.010.02
VirginiaACC0.140.0981.8276.800.090.05
Northern IowaMVC0.140.0862.5061.500.040.02
KansasB120.100.0878.2678.390.050.05
NC AshevilleBSth0.050.0868.1867.640.020.03
DrexelCAA0.140.0879.1778.100.080.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.0850.0051.730.000.00
Virginia Military InstBSth0.140.0845.0044.15-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0838.1042.78-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.140.089.5213.19-0.11-0.06
MercerASun0.090.0870.8371.640.040.04
Texas ChristianMWC0.140.0857.1449.540.02-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0862.5062.060.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.088.7011.67-0.07-0.06
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0845.4546.99-0.01-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.140.0810.0014.93-0.11-0.06
Virginia TechACC0.140.0856.5255.200.020.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0854.5554.300.000.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0830.4331.43-0.02-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.140.0862.5062.490.030.02
St. LouisA100.140.0877.2777.670.080.04
AlbanyAE0.130.0860.0060.420.030.02
Michigan St.B100.090.0876.1972.910.050.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.090.0844.0045.89-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.090.0866.6768.550.030.03
La SalleA100.140.0870.8368.820.060.03
MissouriB120.140.0891.3087.180.120.06
NorthwesternB100.140.0861.9055.140.030.01
OregonP120.090.0869.5764.530.040.02
Oregon St.P120.090.0863.6463.160.020.02
PennsylvaniaIvy0.140.0854.5556.840.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0854.5556.790.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0817.3924.41-0.00-0.04
Chicago St.GWC0.000.084.769.95-0.00-0.06
Miami FLACC0.050.0865.0060.020.010.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0830.0034.15-0.02-0.02
XavierA100.050.0865.2263.740.010.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0640.9144.03-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.100.0633.3333.88-0.03-0.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0670.0073.280.020.03
Montana St.BSky0.050.0645.0041.76-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.100.0613.6416.14-0.08-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.050.0642.8645.80-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.100.0630.0033.20-0.04-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.050.0680.0076.840.030.03
WyomingMWC0.100.0676.1970.730.050.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.0650.0056.760.000.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0656.0055.650.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0634.7838.77-0.03-0.01
High PointBSth0.090.0631.8232.75-0.03-0.02
LibertyBSth0.090.0627.2727.21-0.04-0.03
NC GreensboroSC0.050.0634.7833.46-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.100.0673.9168.430.050.02
SouthernSWAC0.100.0645.0046.13-0.01-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0640.9142.96-0.02-0.01
DuquesneA100.100.0659.0956.350.020.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.040.0640.9138.38-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.100.0656.5254.220.010.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0672.2271.970.020.02
DrakeMVC0.090.0652.1750.090.000.00
BelmontASun0.090.0669.5773.280.040.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0645.4545.70-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0652.3852.860.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0650.0048.900.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.090.0643.4843.82-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0633.3337.25-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0645.8346.68-0.00-0.00
South Carolina UpstateASun0.050.0654.5556.090.000.01
StetsonASun0.050.0631.8231.31-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.090.0638.1040.81-0.02-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0572.7371.710.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.055.267.30-0.04-0.05
MarylandACC0.090.0559.0950.820.020.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0568.0070.030.030.02
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0521.7422.76-0.05-0.03
WoffordSC0.090.0559.0957.930.020.01
Boston UniversityAE0.090.0548.0051.88-0.000.00
DaytonA100.090.0560.8760.960.020.01
DelawareCAA0.090.0547.8350.65-0.000.00
Florida AtlanticSB0.090.0536.3639.72-0.03-0.01
GramblingSWAC0.090.0515.0015.73-0.07-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0528.5726.30-0.04-0.03
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0525.0025.13-0.02-0.03
Southern MississippiCUSA0.090.0585.7182.180.070.03
TempleA100.090.0577.2775.060.050.03
UC RiversideBW0.090.0542.8639.66-0.01-0.01
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.090.0580.0078.060.060.03
Washington St.P120.050.0550.0048.170.00-0.00
DukeACC0.090.0586.3683.090.070.04
Holy CrossPat0.050.0540.9142.05-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.050.0550.0049.730.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeSB0.090.0583.3384.760.060.04
StanfordP120.090.0569.5768.290.030.02
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.050.0519.0524.61-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckySB0.090.0534.7834.48-0.03-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0530.0037.30-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.090.0573.9175.000.040.03
ColgatePat0.090.0530.4329.50-0.03-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.050.0514.2917.17-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.090.0540.9134.50-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.040.0572.7364.430.020.02
IndianaB100.090.0575.0075.780.040.03
IowaB100.040.0554.1749.440.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0534.7838.42-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0571.4373.350.040.02
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.050.0513.6416.35-0.03-0.04
NebraskaB100.090.0552.3846.680.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0570.8364.420.040.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0555.0054.480.000.00
Ohio St.B100.040.0586.9685.460.030.04
OklahomaB120.000.0559.0954.700.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0366.6760.800.020.01
DenverSB0.050.0370.8372.230.020.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0369.5768.900.020.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0334.7837.24-0.02-0.01
IdahoWAC0.050.0347.6251.08-0.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0361.9063.520.010.01
Appalachian St.SC0.000.0335.0039.29-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0355.0060.330.000.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0350.0048.360.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0343.4844.25-0.01-0.00
FurmanSC0.050.0347.6248.83-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.050.0317.3920.97-0.03-0.02
Loyola MDMAAC0.050.0377.2773.450.020.01
QuinnipiacNEC0.050.0356.5257.150.010.00
SamfordSC0.050.0333.3335.26-0.02-0.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0345.4545.55-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0331.8242.13-0.02-0.00
UABCUSA0.050.0340.9139.82-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0342.8641.13-0.01-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0321.0522.46-0.03-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0375.0074.610.020.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.000.0371.4366.600.000.01
ColoradoP120.050.0366.6762.650.020.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0355.0054.800.000.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0340.0041.30-0.01-0.00
Georgia St.CAA0.050.0366.6769.690.020.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0339.1342.12-0.01-0.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0390.4887.910.000.02
HoustonCUSA0.050.0347.6244.63-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistGWC0.050.0325.0028.52-0.02-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0354.1754.750.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.038.708.99-0.04-0.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0334.7833.43-0.01-0.01
NevadaWAC0.050.0380.9576.420.030.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0325.0023.75-0.02-0.01
North TexasSB0.050.0350.0050.010.000.00
Old DominionCAA0.050.0360.0058.290.010.00
PortlandWCC0.050.0321.7421.70-0.03-0.02
Seattleind0.050.0323.5333.28-0.02-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0352.3852.870.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0373.9175.490.020.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.050.0338.1037.86-0.01-0.01
St. Peter'sMAAC0.050.0321.7424.58-0.03-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0331.8225.98-0.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0335.0035.26-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0355.5658.010.010.00
UtahP120.050.0318.1815.01-0.03-0.02
VermontAE0.050.0360.0062.490.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0347.8343.66-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.050.0372.2263.190.020.01
AkronMAC0.000.0368.1867.910.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.0316.6723.02-0.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0337.5038.33-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.000.0390.9183.850.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0330.4326.44-0.02-0.01
BradleyMVC0.040.0324.0024.86-0.02-0.01
Brigham YoungWCC0.040.0375.0076.000.020.01
BrownIvy0.050.0327.2723.80-0.02-0.01
College of CharlestonSC0.050.0358.3359.980.010.01
DavidsonSC0.050.0376.1976.760.020.01
George WashingtonA100.040.0334.7832.08-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0381.8281.490.030.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0372.7368.280.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0371.4369.050.000.01
LafayettePat0.050.0343.4842.95-0.01-0.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0361.9067.230.010.01
LehighPat0.050.0373.9174.910.020.01
ManhattanMAAC0.040.0368.0069.070.020.01
MichiganB100.040.0372.7366.810.020.01
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.040.0334.7835.20-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0354.1757.200.000.00
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.040.0382.6181.440.030.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0335.0038.58-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.040.0386.9683.160.030.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0347.8348.56-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.050.0381.8277.200.030.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0345.4540.70-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0380.7780.750.000.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0347.3752.87-0.000.00
PurdueB100.040.0365.2260.580.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0320.8320.60-0.03-0.02
RichmondA100.000.0350.0048.490.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0337.5038.52-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0326.3229.79-0.02-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0366.6768.050.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.034.359.66-0.04-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0360.8759.760.000.01
Texas A&MB120.050.0352.3846.150.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0318.1821.13-0.00-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.040.0361.9058.590.010.00
William & MaryCAA0.050.0312.5013.44-0.03-0.02