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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Marquette

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:60.1
Current RPI:172
Expected SOS:49
Current SOS:271
Current Record:5-2
Expected Record:19-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:5-2
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:102
Expected OOC SOS:191



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-39.00.01%
26-48.00.03%
25-513.60.18%
24-617.50.93%
23-722.82.76%
22-828.16.22%
21-936.012.00%
20-1045.017.10%
19-1155.818.61%
18-1268.417.43%
17-1382.312.62%
16-1497.37.20%
15-15113.33.36%
14-16128.81.13%
13-17146.50.36%
12-18162.60.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Marquette.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Vanderbilt (72.4)SECN71-95W100%0.0
11-14Howard (291.2)MEACH81-49W100%0.0
11-17Michigan (45.6)B10N61-79L0%0.0
11-18Pittsburgh (49.5)ACCN75-78L0%0.0
11-22IUPUI (194.4)SumH104-79W100%0.0
11-26Houston Baptist (222.2)SlndH101-79W100%0.0
11-30Western Carolina (291.4)SCH90-44W100%0.0
12-4Georgia (65.1)SECA0-054%1.2
12-6Fresno St. (202.1)MWCH0-093%18.0
12-10Wisconsin (29.2)B10H0-046%-1.1
12-19St. Francis PA (251.0)NECH0-098%24.1
12-21SIU Edwardsville (228.3)OVCH0-098%23.8
12-28Georgetown (104.0)BEH0-074%7.7
1-1Seton Hall (76.8)BEA0-052%0.6
1-7Villanova (7.4)BEA0-019%-10.3
1-11Seton Hall (76.8)BEH0-071%6.8
1-14DePaul (206.1)BEH0-092%17.2
1-16Butler (14.7)BEA0-030%-6.4
1-21Creighton (25.4)BEA0-031%-5.9
1-24Villanova (7.4)BEH0-036%-4.2
1-28Providence (75.1)BEH0-073%7.5
2-1St. John's (167.9)BEA0-071%6.5
2-4DePaul (206.1)BEA0-082%11.0
2-7Butler (14.7)BEH0-049%-0.3
2-11Georgetown (104.0)BEA0-055%1.5
2-18Xavier (11.9)BEH0-048%-0.7
2-21St. John's (167.9)BEH0-086%12.7
2-25Providence (75.1)BEA0-054%1.3
3-1Xavier (11.9)BEA0-028%-6.8
3-4Creighton (25.4)BEH0-051%0.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Marquette's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Marquette's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Marquette.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MarquetteBE29.2426.3362.9659.697.585.10
GeorgetownBE0.714.2650.0048.380.00-0.14
ButlerBE0.514.23100.0076.770.512.26
CreightonBE0.004.23100.0077.930.002.36
ProvidenceBE0.004.2171.4357.670.000.65
St. John'sBE0.004.2128.5734.74-0.00-1.28
VillanovaBE0.004.21100.0083.880.002.85
XavierBE0.004.21100.0075.690.002.16
DePaulBE0.004.2080.0037.620.00-1.04
Seton HallBE0.004.2071.4355.680.000.48
WisconsinB100.001.8375.0074.510.000.90
MichiganB108.371.7866.6765.412.790.55
HowardMEAC8.161.780.0039.63-8.16-0.37
IUPUISum8.371.7533.3349.49-2.79-0.02
VanderbiltSEC7.141.7566.6750.492.380.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.511.7057.1442.000.07-0.27
GeorgiaSEC0.001.6966.6754.670.000.16
Fresno St.MWC0.001.6760.0040.830.00-0.31
Houston BaptistSlnd7.141.670.0040.12-7.14-0.33
PittsburghACC7.141.6783.3354.074.760.14
St. Francis PANEC0.001.6740.0045.41-0.00-0.15
Western CarolinaSC7.141.6720.0019.64-4.29-1.01
NorthwesternB100.000.2371.4366.220.000.07
IndianaB100.000.2383.3375.060.000.11
RutgersB100.000.1983.3344.770.00-0.02
SyracuseACC0.000.1966.6770.140.000.08
FloridaSEC0.000.1687.5075.320.000.08
South CarolinaSEC0.510.16100.0080.780.510.10
Ohio St.B100.600.1685.7172.660.430.07
MarylandB100.510.1685.7156.490.360.02
MinnesotaB100.000.1685.7165.670.000.05
VirginiaACC0.000.16100.0082.550.000.10
LamarSlnd0.000.1560.0043.970.00-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.1414.2929.15-0.00-0.06
BuffaloMAC0.000.1440.0050.91-0.000.00
NebraskaB100.000.1450.0043.610.00-0.02
Michigan St.B100.000.1350.0061.590.000.03
Penn St.B100.000.1362.5043.960.00-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.1371.4352.370.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.1240.0037.65-0.00-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1220.0034.22-0.00-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1225.0039.28-0.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1250.0038.430.00-0.03
WyomingMWC0.000.1260.0048.590.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.120.0019.30-0.00-0.07
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.1183.3357.990.000.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1150.0061.810.000.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1116.6729.36-0.00-0.05
WagnerNEC0.000.1133.3353.85-0.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.1116.6735.65-0.00-0.03
FurmanSC0.000.1120.0049.38-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1166.6766.100.000.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.1166.6758.420.000.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.510.110.0038.35-0.51-0.03
IllinoisB100.000.1157.1442.660.00-0.02
MississippiSEC0.000.1171.4346.010.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1185.7180.960.000.07
IowaB100.000.1142.8644.33-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.11100.0086.250.000.08
TempleAmer0.000.1171.4363.570.000.03
UtahP120.000.1175.0061.040.000.02
VermontAE0.000.1162.5071.630.000.05
ClemsonACC0.000.1166.6753.460.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.1150.0045.920.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.1125.0034.47-0.00-0.03
La SalleA100.000.1160.0051.780.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1140.0057.49-0.000.02
PurdueB100.000.1171.4374.450.000.05
New MexicoMWC0.890.0971.4358.670.380.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.510.0912.5048.98-0.38-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0933.3348.73-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.600.0966.6775.370.200.04
DrakeMVC0.000.090.0021.30-0.00-0.05
HawaiiBW0.000.0950.0050.940.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0925.0024.66-0.00-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0866.6769.810.000.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.080.0023.46-0.00-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.080.0034.23-0.00-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0842.8642.47-0.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0885.7168.390.000.03
BinghamtonAE0.000.0842.8640.94-0.00-0.02
LehighPat0.000.0833.3367.01-0.000.03
OregonP120.000.0871.4366.730.000.03
Gardner WebbBSth1.220.0820.0048.38-0.73-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0816.6731.91-0.00-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0862.5056.500.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.080.0018.22-0.00-0.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0816.6736.35-0.00-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0866.6765.810.000.03
VCUA100.000.0885.7178.150.000.05
AlabamaSEC0.000.0866.6756.020.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0883.3355.200.000.01
BucknellPat0.510.0875.0067.660.260.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.080.0017.30-0.00-0.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0871.4350.570.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0883.3362.840.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0850.0027.250.00-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.000.0885.7180.010.000.05
Notre DameACC0.000.08100.0075.010.000.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.070.0037.92-0.00-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.070.0020.01-0.00-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0750.0058.600.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0750.0056.430.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.07100.0069.770.000.03
RiceCUSA0.890.0685.7169.010.640.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0650.0042.710.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0640.0041.65-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0650.0058.980.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0628.5750.20-0.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0683.3361.490.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0633.3341.11-0.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0650.0043.490.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.510.0642.8646.78-0.07-0.00
Fort WayneSum0.000.0666.6770.930.000.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0642.8661.90-0.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0675.0070.470.000.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0642.8638.05-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0675.0074.990.000.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0640.0037.44-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0657.1447.220.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0614.2937.52-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0675.0054.320.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0022.69-0.00-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0657.1447.320.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0683.3380.700.000.04
MercerSC0.000.0650.0053.050.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0024.32-0.00-0.03
SamfordSC0.000.0657.1455.810.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0640.0027.05-0.00-0.03
VMISC0.000.060.0021.15-0.00-0.03
WoffordSC0.000.060.0033.58-0.00-0.02
BelmontOVC0.510.0640.0061.37-0.100.01
DuquesneA100.000.0637.5034.65-0.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC1.020.0650.0055.850.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0633.3348.71-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.510.0620.0041.93-0.31-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0616.6732.62-0.00-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.510.0683.3370.360.340.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0657.1444.160.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0650.0064.840.000.02
High PointBSth0.000.0650.0051.260.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.600.0683.3359.600.400.01
Miami FLACC0.600.0671.4365.740.260.02
AkronMAC0.000.0683.3369.840.000.02
ArizonaP120.000.0685.7170.990.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0657.1436.050.00-0.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0683.3363.610.000.02
DelawareCAA0.000.0640.0040.65-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0650.0050.290.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0633.3346.81-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.0633.3340.49-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3333.15-0.00-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0675.0064.960.000.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0616.6740.71-0.00-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0616.6734.31-0.00-0.02
StanfordP120.000.0675.0059.100.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0671.4356.050.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0650.0036.820.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0566.6739.720.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0571.4349.770.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0571.4343.020.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.0550.0036.240.00-0.02
BaylorB120.000.05100.0074.460.000.03
BrownIvy0.000.0550.0042.420.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0516.6743.29-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0571.4359.850.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0533.3338.76-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0566.6751.460.000.00
ElonCAA0.000.0583.3358.030.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0557.1443.680.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0528.5734.18-0.00-0.02
LafayettePat0.000.0533.3331.87-0.00-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.0585.7175.950.000.03
MaineAE0.000.0516.6725.61-0.00-0.03
MassachusettsA100.000.0583.3358.080.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0585.7159.740.000.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0550.0057.480.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0583.3356.560.000.01
PennIvy0.000.0540.0057.97-0.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0571.4370.330.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0550.0046.780.00-0.00
SMUAmer1.020.0557.1469.300.150.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0514.2926.81-0.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.0583.3374.620.000.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.0533.3338.20-0.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.510.0585.7162.920.360.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0516.6736.45-0.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0325.0053.29-0.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0325.0030.93-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0342.8637.25-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0034.01-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0360.0052.760.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0056.71-0.000.00
Texas TechB120.890.0385.7163.780.640.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0350.0052.330.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0333.3335.92-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0350.0059.670.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0320.0034.39-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0350.0056.260.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.510.0350.0066.170.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0350.0033.010.00-0.01
NJITASun0.000.0342.8650.32-0.000.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0328.5723.76-0.00-0.02
PacificWCC0.000.0350.0049.010.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0333.3326.75-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0350.0046.670.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0023.26-0.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6770.740.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.0328.5728.26-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0316.6733.82-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0314.2928.66-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0350.0043.310.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0371.4349.590.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0350.0053.560.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0328.5728.46-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0320.0036.00-0.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0034.18-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.030.0043.04-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.600.030.0042.55-0.60-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6737.09-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0024.19-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.77-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0383.3380.550.000.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0325.0038.72-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0385.7176.170.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0366.6761.340.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0383.3378.430.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0366.6772.440.000.01
DukeACC0.000.0387.5078.680.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0385.7162.410.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0314.2929.81-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0371.4368.970.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0328.5730.29-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0385.7173.010.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0383.3351.920.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.510.0337.5036.24-0.13-0.01
UCLAP120.000.03100.0083.550.000.02
YaleIvy0.510.0333.3364.14-0.170.01