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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Marquette

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:88.1
Current RPI:120
Expected SOS:18
Current SOS:75
Current Record:1-1
Expected Record:14-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:1-1
Expected OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC RPI:108
Expected OOC SOS:99



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-55.00.01%
22-68.00.04%
21-715.30.20%
20-820.70.61%
19-928.51.96%
18-1036.44.28%
17-1146.48.26%
16-1258.313.04%
15-1372.415.99%
14-1488.418.30%
13-15105.915.76%
12-16123.610.94%
11-17142.86.24%
10-18162.52.81%
9-19181.91.18%
8-20196.10.26%
7-21211.40.09%
6-22247.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Marquette.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Mount St. Mary's (254.8)NECH80-59W100%0.0
11-14Purdue (9.2)B10H71-86L0%0.0
11-20VCU (92.7)A10N0-054%1.2
11-27Eastern Illinois (246.1)OVCH0-092%17.2
11-29Chicago St. (324.5)WACH0-0100%31.1
12-2Georgia (93.5)SECH0-062%3.6
12-5Vermont (75.8)AEH0-069%5.9
12-9Wisconsin (36.5)B10A0-024%-8.6
12-18Northern Illinois (160.0)MACH0-085%12.3
12-21American (295.7)PatH0-097%22.3
12-27Xavier (9.4)BEH0-029%-6.6
12-30Georgetown (126.6)BEH0-063%4.1
1-3Providence (42.3)BEA0-029%-6.7
1-6Villanova (6.5)BEA0-011%-15.0
1-9Seton Hall (28.6)BEH0-043%-2.2
1-12Butler (79.5)BEA0-040%-3.2
1-15DePaul (198.3)BEH0-082%10.9
1-24Xavier (9.4)BEA0-015%-12.6
1-28Villanova (6.5)BEH0-023%-9.0
1-31Butler (79.5)BEH0-059%2.8
2-3Providence (42.3)BEH0-048%-0.7
2-7Seton Hall (28.6)BEA0-025%-8.2
2-10St. John's (65.5)BEA0-038%-3.6
2-17Creighton (36.3)BEA0-027%-7.5
2-21St. John's (65.5)BEH0-058%2.4
2-24DePaul (198.3)BEA0-066%4.9
2-26Georgetown (126.6)BEA0-044%-1.9
3-3Creighton (36.3)BEH0-045%-1.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Marquette's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Marquette's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Marquette.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MarquetteBE31.2526.4130.0045.35-12.50-2.45
Seton HallBE0.004.58100.0068.070.001.66
XavierBE0.004.58100.0079.050.002.66
ButlerBE0.004.5875.0052.490.000.23
GeorgetownBE3.124.58100.0058.923.120.82
ProvidenceBE0.004.5675.0064.760.001.35
CreightonBE0.004.55100.0067.710.001.61
VillanovaBE0.004.55100.0082.930.003.00
DePaulBE0.004.5433.3331.690.00-1.66
St. John'sBE0.004.54100.0054.810.000.44
PurdueB1025.001.94100.0084.8325.001.35
WisconsinB100.001.9466.6766.650.000.65
Chicago St.WAC3.121.880.007.94-3.12-1.58
Mount St. Mary'sNEC25.001.8833.3349.50-8.33-0.02
VCUA100.001.8566.6767.320.000.64
Northern IllinoisMAC0.001.82100.0051.800.000.07
AmericanPat0.001.820.0031.320.00-0.68
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.001.7933.3342.290.00-0.28
GeorgiaSEC0.001.79100.0053.800.000.14
VermontAE0.001.7966.6775.660.000.92
NebraskaB100.000.2566.6740.070.00-0.05
NorthwesternB100.000.2575.0055.040.000.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.2225.0040.490.00-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC3.120.1933.3329.98-1.04-0.08
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.180.0037.310.00-0.05
Western IllinoisSum0.000.16100.0038.710.00-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1666.6759.540.000.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1533.3336.610.00-0.04
IllinoisB100.000.15100.0059.240.000.03
Michigan St.B100.000.1550.0077.820.000.09
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.150.0028.770.00-0.07
RichmondA100.000.150.0030.280.00-0.06
MarylandB100.000.15100.0071.740.000.07
WagnerNEC0.000.1566.6749.940.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.15100.0046.880.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.1566.6753.390.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.15100.0071.700.000.06
Rhode IslandA100.000.1550.0073.230.000.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.13100.0075.130.000.06
Notre DameACC3.120.13100.0073.733.120.06
IowaB100.000.13100.0058.250.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.130.0022.610.00-0.07
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.130.0027.250.00-0.06
BelmontOVC0.000.1275.0071.560.000.05
TempleAmer0.000.12100.0056.600.000.02
BucknellPat0.000.120.0061.460.000.03
GonzagaWCC0.000.12100.0086.180.000.09
LafayettePat0.000.120.0021.970.00-0.07
MaineAE0.000.120.0013.450.00-0.09
YaleIvy0.000.1225.0054.930.000.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.120.0044.950.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.1266.6745.880.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.1250.0042.160.00-0.02
IndianaB100.000.1233.3341.220.00-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.120.0047.400.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.1266.6755.210.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1033.3353.190.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.100.0046.410.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1050.0048.410.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.10100.0039.920.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.000.100.0044.830.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.1075.0048.770.00-0.00
PennIvy0.000.0933.3349.350.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.09100.0048.350.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.000.090.0030.230.00-0.04
UMBCAE0.000.090.0052.900.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.090.0039.010.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.09100.0066.010.000.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0022.840.00-0.05
HowardMEAC0.000.090.0046.080.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0975.0051.210.000.00
LehighPat0.000.0966.6751.580.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.090.0038.210.00-0.02
New HampshireAE0.000.090.0048.110.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0933.3359.680.000.02
TexasB120.000.09100.0063.830.000.03
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0966.6763.220.000.02
MichiganB100.000.09100.0061.710.000.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0950.0042.730.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.090.0045.040.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.09100.0066.990.000.03
BaylorB120.000.09100.0061.110.000.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.070.0029.880.00-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.0733.3345.540.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0766.6748.040.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.07100.0061.010.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.070.0048.610.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.07100.0053.280.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0750.0066.530.000.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.070.0036.490.00-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0725.0050.070.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.07100.0064.120.000.02
IUPUIHorz0.000.060.0032.200.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0633.3348.480.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.000.06100.0062.760.000.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0666.6750.670.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.060.0042.670.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.060.0021.590.00-0.04
DukeACC0.000.06100.0083.580.000.04
FloridaSEC0.000.06100.0080.230.000.04
IonaMAAC0.000.0625.0059.770.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.06100.0046.080.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0650.0069.320.000.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0042.810.00-0.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0666.6742.260.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0633.3350.150.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0675.0058.930.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.060.0026.150.00-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0650.0035.330.00-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0650.0060.430.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.06100.0060.010.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.06100.0062.930.000.02
KentuckySEC0.000.0675.0071.830.000.03
WinthropBSth0.000.060.0055.380.000.01
AlbanyAE0.000.06100.0072.510.000.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0037.120.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.0650.0053.620.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.0625.0038.080.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.060.0047.690.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.000.0650.0050.310.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0633.3350.350.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.06100.0056.360.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0666.6762.150.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0633.3336.170.00-0.02
FurmanSC0.000.0650.0059.440.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0675.0048.930.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.0633.3326.430.00-0.03
HofstraCAA0.000.0675.0056.120.000.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.06100.0048.790.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0029.620.00-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.060.0031.380.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0625.0045.730.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0650.0052.870.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0650.0043.710.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0666.6748.280.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0666.6746.830.00-0.00
North FloridaASun3.120.060.0036.69-3.12-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0650.0036.640.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.060.0051.010.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.060.0036.070.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0650.0054.450.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.060.0030.910.00-0.02
SyracuseACC0.000.06100.0062.240.000.02
UCLAP120.000.06100.0064.910.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.06100.0071.560.000.03
UtahP120.000.06100.0067.160.000.02
VMISC0.000.0633.3327.450.00-0.03
Ohio St.B100.000.06100.0059.870.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.06100.0060.400.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0074.140.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0082.350.000.04
ColoradoP120.000.06100.0052.860.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0633.3357.840.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.060.0048.070.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.06100.0055.280.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0666.6749.100.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0666.6759.740.000.01
NJITASun0.000.0633.3333.210.00-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0633.3348.640.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.000.06100.0062.630.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0675.0045.290.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.06100.0039.270.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0666.6753.670.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0038.960.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.0650.0046.810.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.03100.0060.370.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0052.380.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0350.0038.730.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0350.0068.280.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0350.0062.630.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0333.3345.780.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0039.640.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.03100.0061.320.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0071.180.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.030.0035.130.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0350.0035.740.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.030.0057.520.000.00
MississippiSEC0.000.03100.0053.790.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0051.080.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0366.6757.890.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0366.6765.630.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.03100.0071.010.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.030.0046.000.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0366.6749.990.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.030.0028.720.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0333.3347.670.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0033.700.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.03100.0070.080.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.03100.0047.670.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC3.120.0366.6754.901.040.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.770.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0333.3354.200.000.00
LipscombASun0.000.0333.3349.220.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0333.3335.150.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0350.0049.480.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0375.0072.950.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0333.3334.560.00-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0325.0032.490.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.030.0037.060.00-0.01
ValparaisoMVC0.000.03100.0059.760.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0366.6771.200.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0034.040.00-0.01