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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Marquette

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:110.0
Current RPI:110
Expected SOS:107
Current SOS:107
Current Record:20-13
Expected Record:20-13
Current Conf Record:9-11
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:157
Expected OOC SOS:322



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-13110.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Marquette.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Belmont (98.0)OVCH80-83L0%0.0
11-16IUPUI (189.0)SumH75-71W100%0.0
11-19Iowa (28.0)B10H61-89L0%0.0
11-23LSU (94.0)SECN81-80W100%0.0
11-24Arizona St. (99.0)P12N73-78W100%0.0
11-29Jackson St. (221.0)SWACH80-61W100%0.0
12-2Grambling St. (350.0)SWACH95-49W100%0.0
12-5Maine (317.0)AEH104-67W100%0.0
12-8San Jose St. (301.0)MWCH80-62W100%0.0
12-12Wisconsin (43.0)B10A55-57W100%0.0
12-21Chicago St. (348.0)WACH91-74W100%0.0
12-27Presbyterian (319.0)BSthH84-66W100%0.0
12-30Seton Hall (19.0)BEH63-83L0%0.0
1-2Georgetown (106.0)BEA80-70L0%0.0
1-5Providence (40.0)BEA64-65W100%0.0
1-9St. John's (246.0)BEH81-75W100%0.0
1-13Villanova (4.0)BEA83-68L0%0.0
1-16Xavier (7.0)BEH66-74L0%0.0
1-20DePaul (198.0)BEH56-57L0%0.0
1-24St. John's (246.0)BEA73-78W100%0.0
1-27Stetson (303.0)ASunH74-60W100%0.0
1-30Butler (57.0)BEH75-69W100%0.0
2-3Seton Hall (19.0)BEA79-62L0%0.0
2-6Xavier (7.0)BEA90-82L0%0.0
2-10Providence (40.0)BEH96-91W100%0.0
2-13Creighton (100.0)BEH62-65L0%0.0
2-20DePaul (198.0)BEA60-73W100%0.0
2-24Creighton (100.0)BEA61-66W100%0.0
2-27Villanova (4.0)BEH79-89L0%0.0
3-1Georgetown (106.0)BEH88-87W100%0.0
3-5Butler (57.0)BEA95-74L0%0.0
3-9St. John's (246.0)BEA93-101W100%0.0
3-10Xavier (7.0)BEN90-72L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Marquette's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Marquette's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Marquette.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MarquetteBE26.4126.4156.0556.053.203.20
XavierBE5.395.3982.7682.763.533.53
St. John'sBE5.345.3425.0025.00-2.67-2.67
Seton HallBE4.044.0474.1974.191.961.96
VillanovaBE4.024.0284.3884.382.772.77
GeorgetownBE4.004.0045.1645.16-0.39-0.39
ProvidenceBE3.983.9874.1974.191.921.92
CreightonBE3.973.9756.6756.670.530.53
DePaulBE3.953.9527.5927.59-1.77-1.77
ButlerBE3.953.9568.9768.971.501.50
IUPUISum1.611.6140.0040.00-0.32-0.32
Arizona St.P121.591.5948.3948.39-0.05-0.05
WisconsinB101.591.5964.5264.520.460.46
Jackson St.SWAC1.571.5754.8454.840.150.15
Chicago St.WAC1.561.563.573.57-1.45-1.45
Grambling St.SWAC1.561.5614.8114.81-1.10-1.10
BelmontOVC1.541.5462.0762.070.370.37
IowaB101.541.5466.6766.670.510.51
LSUSEC1.521.5259.3859.380.280.28
MaineAE1.521.5227.5927.59-0.68-0.68
PresbyterianBSth1.521.5229.6329.63-0.62-0.62
San Jose St.MWC1.521.5222.2222.22-0.84-0.84
StetsonASun1.521.5227.5927.59-0.68-0.68
IndianaB100.220.2278.1278.120.120.12
RutgersB100.210.2119.3519.35-0.13-0.13
NJITASun0.190.1953.3353.330.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.170.1729.1729.17-0.07-0.07
PurdueB100.170.1776.4776.470.090.09
IllinoisB100.170.1744.1244.12-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.160.1647.0647.06-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.150.1522.8622.86-0.08-0.08
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.150.1522.5822.58-0.08-0.08
Texas SouthernSWAC0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.150.1531.0331.03-0.06-0.06
South CarolinaSEC0.150.1574.1974.190.070.07
WagnerNEC0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
MichiganB100.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
SyracuseACC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
Michigan St.B100.140.1485.2985.290.100.10
StanfordP120.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
Tennessee St.OVC0.130.1364.2964.290.040.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.130.1332.2632.26-0.04-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
UMBCAE0.120.1221.8821.88-0.07-0.07
NorthwesternB100.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Penn St.B100.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
Miami OHMAC0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
USCP120.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
MarylandB100.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
TempleAmer0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
BrownIvy0.120.1225.9325.93-0.06-0.06
AlabamaSEC0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.100.1072.4172.410.050.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1024.2424.24-0.05-0.05
The CitadelSC0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
RadfordBSth0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.1060.7160.710.020.02
FordhamA100.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
HartfordAE0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
DaytonA100.100.1078.1278.120.050.05
George WashingtonA100.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
TennesseeSEC0.090.0944.1244.12-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
MassachusettsA100.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
BryantNEC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
SeattleWAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
UMKCWAC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.04-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
VMISC0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
VermontAE0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Ohio St.B100.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
MinnesotaB100.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
IPFWSum0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
DrakeMVC0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0756.0056.000.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
DartmouthIvy0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
KentuckySEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
High PointBSth0.050.0564.2964.290.020.02
LibertyBSth0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
UNLVMWC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
AlbanyAE0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
UMass LowellAE0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
DenverSum0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Miami FLACC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0513.3313.33-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.9012.90-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.050.0524.2424.24-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0576.6776.670.020.02
AkronMAC0.040.0475.7675.760.020.02
DelawareCAA0.040.0423.3323.33-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.040.0457.5857.580.010.01
La SalleA100.040.0426.6726.67-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.040.0437.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.040.0479.4179.410.030.03
VirginiaACC0.040.0478.7978.790.030.03
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
FurmanSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
IdahoBSky0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
BYUWCC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
UCFAmer0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Notre DameACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
ColoradoP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0282.1482.140.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
UtahP120.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
VCUA100.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
AmericanPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
HoustonAmer0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00