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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Marquette

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:60.0
Current RPI:60
Expected SOS:48
Current SOS:48
Current Record:19-12
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:114
Expected OOC SOS:190



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1260.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Marquette.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Vanderbilt (44.0)SECN71-95W100%0.0
11-14Howard (337.0)MEACH81-49W100%0.0
11-17Michigan (25.0)B10N61-79L0%0.0
11-18Pittsburgh (74.0)ACCN75-78L0%0.0
11-22IUPUI (218.0)SumH104-79W100%0.0
11-26Houston Baptist (175.0)SlndH101-79W100%0.0
11-30Western Carolina (271.0)SCH90-44W100%0.0
12-4Georgia (52.0)SECA79-89W100%0.0
12-6Fresno St. (76.0)MWCH84-81W100%0.0
12-10Wisconsin (35.0)B10H84-93L0%0.0
12-19St. Francis PA (258.0)NECH78-65W100%0.0
12-21SIU Edwardsville (333.0)OVCH89-56W100%0.0
12-28Georgetown (106.0)BEH76-66W100%0.0
1-1Seton Hall (43.0)BEA69-66L0%0.0
1-7Villanova (1.0)BEA93-81L0%0.0
1-11Seton Hall (43.0)BEH89-86W100%0.0
1-14DePaul (239.0)BEH83-58W100%0.0
1-16Butler (15.0)BEA88-80L0%0.0
1-21Creighton (26.0)BEA94-102W100%0.0
1-24Villanova (1.0)BEH74-72W100%0.0
1-28Providence (56.0)BEH78-79L0%0.0
2-1St. John's (140.0)BEA86-72L0%0.0
2-4DePaul (239.0)BEA79-92W100%0.0
2-7Butler (15.0)BEH65-68L0%0.0
2-11Georgetown (106.0)BEA80-62L0%0.0
2-18Xavier (37.0)BEH83-61W100%0.0
2-21St. John's (140.0)BEH93-71W100%0.0
2-25Providence (56.0)BEA73-69L0%0.0
3-1Xavier (37.0)BEA84-95W100%0.0
3-4Creighton (26.0)BEH91-83W100%0.0
3-9Seton Hall (43.0)BEN76-82L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Marquette's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Marquette's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Marquette.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MarquetteBE26.3326.3358.1458.144.294.29
Seton HallBE5.685.6865.5265.521.761.76
VillanovaBE4.254.2593.7593.753.723.72
CreightonBE4.244.2477.4277.422.332.33
XavierBE4.234.2365.6265.621.321.32
St. John'sBE4.174.1741.9441.94-0.67-0.67
GeorgetownBE4.174.1743.3343.33-0.56-0.56
ButlerBE4.144.1472.4172.411.851.85
ProvidenceBE4.124.1260.0060.000.820.82
DePaulBE4.124.1230.0030.00-1.65-1.65
WisconsinB101.781.7872.7372.730.810.81
MichiganB101.741.7467.6567.650.610.61
HowardMEAC1.711.7125.8125.81-0.83-0.83
VanderbiltSEC1.691.6957.5857.580.260.26
IUPUISum1.691.6941.3841.38-0.29-0.29
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC1.641.6418.5218.52-1.03-1.03
GeorgiaSEC1.641.6458.0658.060.260.26
Fresno St.MWC1.611.6162.0762.070.390.39
Houston BaptistSlnd1.611.6152.0052.000.060.06
PittsburghACC1.611.6146.8846.88-0.10-0.10
St. Francis PANEC1.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
Western CarolinaSC1.611.6124.1424.14-0.83-0.83
NorthwesternB100.230.2367.6567.650.080.08
IndianaB100.230.2354.5554.550.020.02
FloridaSEC0.200.2075.0075.000.100.10
RutgersB100.200.2043.7543.75-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.170.1767.7467.740.060.06
SyracuseACC0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
VirginiaACC0.170.1768.7568.750.060.06
MinnesotaB100.170.1772.7372.730.080.08
Ohio St.B100.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
MarylandB100.150.1574.1974.190.070.07
LamarSlnd0.140.1451.7251.720.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.130.1325.0025.00-0.06-0.06
WagnerNEC0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1360.7160.710.030.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.130.1320.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.120.1285.2985.290.090.09
Texas A&MSEC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
IowaB100.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Penn St.B100.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Michigan St.B100.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
NebraskaB100.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
New MexicoMWC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
HawaiiBW0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
WyomingMWC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1010.0010.00-0.08-0.08
VermontAE0.100.1084.8584.850.070.07
FurmanSC0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.100.1038.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
UtahP120.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
AmericanPat0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
La SalleA100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
TempleAmer0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
MississippiSEC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
ClemsonACC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
MissouriSEC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
NevadaMWC0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
The CitadelSC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
BryantNEC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
DrakeMVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
OregonP120.080.0884.8584.850.050.05
BucknellPat0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
CaliforniaP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
DelawareCAA0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
StanfordP120.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0710.3410.34-0.06-0.06
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
VCUA100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
LehighPat0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Notre DameACC0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0632.0032.00-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0619.2319.23-0.04-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0644.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
DenverSum0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Fort WayneSum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
MercerSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
VMISC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
Green BayHorz0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
High PointBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
MassachusettsA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0529.4129.41-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.053.333.33-0.05-0.05
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
BaylorB120.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
ColoradoP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
LafayettePat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Texas TechB120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
StetsonASun0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
NJITASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0361.5461.540.010.01
KansasB120.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.020.0277.1477.140.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
YaleIvy0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
DaytonA100.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
OklahomaB120.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.020.0287.8887.880.020.02