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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Marquette

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:100.2
Current RPI:60
Expected SOS:16
Current SOS:9
Current Record:5-4
Expected Record:14-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-1
Current OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:98
Expected OOC SOS:56



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-813.00.01%
21-923.20.04%
20-1030.10.36%
19-1138.51.09%
18-1249.03.52%
17-1361.17.92%
16-1474.814.56%
15-1589.719.69%
14-16105.220.38%
13-17121.016.47%
12-18137.29.70%
11-19151.84.46%
10-20168.41.45%
9-21185.80.29%
8-22190.80.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Marquette.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Tennessee Martin (144.5)OVCH79-63W100%0.0
11-18Ohio St. (10.6)B10A74-63L0%0.0
11-22Nebraska Omaha (196.9)SumH89-97L0%0.0
11-24NJIT (233.3)indH62-57W100%0.0
11-27Georgia Tech (89.6)ACCN70-72W100%0.0
11-28Michigan St. (27.0)B10N68-79L0%0.0
11-30Tennessee (131.3)SECN67-59W100%0.0
12-6Wisconsin (5.8)B10H38-49L0%0.0
12-16Arizona St. (98.6)P12H78-71W100%0.0
12-19Alabama A&M (330.9)SWACH0-097%22.4
12-22North Dakota (272.7)BSkyH0-094%18.3
12-28Morgan St. (303.9)MEACH0-094%17.8
12-31DePaul (196.0)BEA0-054%1.2
1-3Providence (80.8)BEH0-059%2.6
1-6Georgetown (47.6)BEA0-019%-10.2
1-14Creighton (115.6)BEH0-065%4.6
1-17Xavier (22.1)BEA0-013%-13.4
1-21St. John's (43.2)BEA0-020%-9.9
1-24Georgetown (47.6)BEH0-045%-1.4
1-28Seton Hall (37.4)BEH0-046%-1.3
1-31Butler (25.9)BEH0-033%-5.0
2-4Villanova (17.0)BEA0-010%-15.2
2-7Seton Hall (37.4)BEA0-020%-10.0
2-10Xavier (22.1)BEH0-034%-4.7
2-14Creighton (115.6)BEA0-036%-4.2
2-21Villanova (17.0)BEH0-029%-6.5
2-25Butler (25.9)BEA0-012%-13.8
3-1Providence (80.8)BEA0-030%-6.2
3-4St. John's (43.2)BEH0-046%-1.2
3-7DePaul (196.0)BEH0-080%9.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Marquette's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Marquette's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Marquette.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MarquetteBE27.6226.3446.3442.26-2.02-4.08
ButlerBE0.354.3380.0072.220.211.93
GeorgetownBE0.254.2966.6758.860.080.76
VillanovaBE0.004.25100.0082.190.002.74
St. John'sBE0.254.2587.5064.890.191.26
CreightonBE0.004.2272.7351.710.000.14
ProvidenceBE0.004.2272.7353.090.000.26
XavierBE0.004.2280.0070.580.001.74
Seton HallBE0.004.2190.0067.250.001.45
DePaulBE0.004.2160.0034.200.00-1.33
WisconsinB105.561.7890.0088.014.441.35
NJITind5.561.7840.0042.68-1.11-0.26
Michigan St.B105.561.7270.0072.252.220.77
Ohio St.B105.561.7288.8984.164.321.18
TennesseeSEC5.561.7257.1447.740.79-0.08
Tennessee MartinOVC5.561.7271.4369.262.380.66
Georgia TechACC5.561.7087.5053.124.170.11
Nebraska OmahaSum5.561.7037.5054.11-1.390.14
North DakotaBSky0.001.7025.0033.76-0.00-0.55
Alabama A&MSWAC0.311.690.0032.89-0.31-0.58
Arizona St.P125.561.6766.6755.611.850.19
Morgan St.MEAC0.001.6718.1837.01-0.00-0.43
IndianaB100.000.2580.0057.630.000.04
NebraskaB100.660.2266.6743.780.22-0.03
MichiganB100.250.2255.5642.550.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.310.2260.0040.620.06-0.04
MinnesotaB100.000.1977.7864.730.000.06
MaineAE0.250.1811.1121.08-0.20-0.10
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1741.6744.33-0.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.280.170.0011.40-0.28-0.13
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1640.0050.07-0.000.00
Penn St.B100.000.1690.9153.850.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.1672.7365.930.000.05
Murray St.OVC0.000.1555.5661.790.000.03
Illinois St.MVC0.350.1466.6764.310.120.04
LehighPat0.000.1437.5047.71-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.510.14100.0087.140.510.10
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.1471.4357.100.000.02
SyracuseACC0.000.1466.6757.800.000.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.1470.0071.630.000.06
Notre DameACC0.250.1490.9171.890.210.06
RutgersB100.000.1460.0035.070.00-0.04
IowaB100.000.1372.7362.590.000.03
MarylandB100.280.1390.9167.660.230.05
OklahomaB120.250.1377.7867.290.140.05
AlbanyAE0.250.1233.3348.89-0.08-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.350.1211.1144.62-0.27-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1233.3338.99-0.00-0.03
IUPUISum0.000.1120.0026.33-0.00-0.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1140.0050.78-0.000.00
South DakotaSum0.000.1127.2738.97-0.00-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.1137.5041.20-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.1166.6766.340.000.04
KansasB120.600.1188.8969.390.470.04
ColoradoP120.000.1166.6758.240.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.1177.7855.460.000.01
StanfordP120.000.1175.0057.570.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.310.1162.5059.510.080.02
AlabamaSEC0.280.1166.6754.660.090.01
PurdueB100.000.1172.7363.730.000.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0933.3362.92-0.000.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0944.4447.53-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.780.0955.5654.360.090.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.250.0920.0038.24-0.15-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.250.0922.2240.44-0.14-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0955.5656.400.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.310.0928.5757.26-0.130.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0962.5054.970.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0940.0050.32-0.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.250.0933.3344.71-0.08-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.350.0918.1821.30-0.22-0.05
Virginia TechACC0.000.0955.5638.130.00-0.02
IPFWSum0.310.0957.1456.900.040.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0920.0019.99-0.00-0.05
YaleIvy0.000.0972.7367.180.000.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.620.0920.0034.08-0.38-0.03
NevadaMWC0.310.0911.1125.02-0.24-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0960.0064.610.000.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0960.0064.930.000.03
TowsonCAA0.000.0966.6751.430.000.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0860.0062.970.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.250.0833.3334.28-0.08-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.310.080.0017.51-0.31-0.05
UtahP120.000.0877.7879.480.000.05
MercerSC0.000.0837.5042.45-0.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0875.0060.400.000.02
RiderMAAC0.560.0850.0052.800.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0844.4436.35-0.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0866.6742.100.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0850.0037.510.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.08100.0094.790.000.07
Miami FLACC0.000.0890.0075.520.000.04
MississippiSEC0.000.0870.0052.610.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0844.4431.58-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0844.4470.08-0.000.03
Rhode IslandA100.310.0862.5073.190.080.04
VCUA100.350.0870.0071.420.140.03
CaliforniaP120.000.0890.0066.690.000.03
ChattanoogaSC0.250.0844.4451.58-0.030.00
NavyPat0.250.0820.0021.58-0.15-0.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0028.26-0.00-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.008.88-0.00-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0618.1844.62-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0610.0018.01-0.00-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0039.41-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0033.84-0.00-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0655.5638.600.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0622.2230.99-0.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.060.0023.71-0.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0640.0046.73-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0630.0043.91-0.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0677.7870.120.000.02
DenverSum0.000.0650.0054.230.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0625.0052.09-0.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0622.2228.69-0.00-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0644.4445.59-0.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0650.0041.830.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0642.8642.32-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0616.6727.56-0.00-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0637.5031.95-0.00-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0016.85-0.00-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0650.0049.620.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.280.0618.1846.16-0.18-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.600.0625.0033.17-0.30-0.02
Kansas St.B120.660.0660.0037.220.13-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0690.0078.050.000.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0650.0032.620.00-0.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0650.0055.810.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0630.0039.44-0.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0625.0028.68-0.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0677.7871.960.000.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0666.6745.670.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0014.79-0.00-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0628.5741.17-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0628.5728.26-0.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0637.5050.40-0.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.0690.0090.940.000.05
LSUSEC0.000.0680.0064.110.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0650.0039.340.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0637.5037.96-0.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0614.2930.74-0.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0650.0056.340.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.350.0681.8264.110.220.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0636.3647.13-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0662.5064.260.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0644.4444.78-0.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0687.5054.790.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0650.0038.000.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0687.5085.320.000.04
LouisvilleACC0.280.05100.0085.330.280.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.280.050.0023.15-0.28-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.600.0550.0040.880.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.280.0577.7865.390.150.02
ArizonaP120.000.05100.0080.590.000.03
BinghamtonAE0.000.050.0011.87-0.00-0.04
BrownIvy0.000.0540.0033.79-0.00-0.02
BucknellPat0.000.0540.0036.29-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0577.7869.190.000.02
ColgatePat0.560.0520.0043.08-0.33-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.050.007.39-0.00-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0575.0071.730.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0533.3332.85-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0536.3633.67-0.00-0.02
La SalleA100.000.0550.0049.960.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.0533.3327.70-0.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0560.0055.630.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0544.4445.64-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0542.8636.79-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.0566.6758.060.000.01
PennIvy0.000.0537.5033.00-0.00-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0555.5640.500.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0554.5557.300.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0566.6777.690.000.03
Stony BrookAE0.000.0533.3354.74-0.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0563.6455.600.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0560.0056.800.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0566.6772.670.000.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0322.2230.85-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.0344.4447.53-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.250.0328.5731.23-0.11-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.250.0357.1453.130.040.00
LafayettePat0.000.0375.0069.820.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0036.67-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0350.0062.270.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.0310.0020.91-0.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0375.0067.580.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.350.0333.3345.50-0.12-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0342.8655.64-0.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.350.0320.0026.57-0.21-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.008.63-0.00-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.310.0357.1461.670.040.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6777.030.000.02
IdahoBSky0.000.0337.5049.83-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0314.2933.32-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.310.0337.5046.50-0.08-0.00
UMKCWAC0.310.0322.2241.92-0.17-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0328.5742.17-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.310.0337.5034.19-0.08-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0320.0028.20-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0371.4363.890.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0337.5047.87-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0012.36-0.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0371.4348.860.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0325.0034.77-0.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0322.2237.50-0.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6752.340.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0318.1828.02-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0320.0029.81-0.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0337.5046.78-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.0342.8643.10-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.310.0360.0064.620.060.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0085.310.000.02
Boise St.MWC0.250.0375.0068.680.130.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0375.0069.120.000.01
CampbellBSth0.280.0325.0044.59-0.14-0.00
DetroitHorz0.000.0344.4448.88-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.250.0371.4363.410.110.01
Green BayHorz0.250.0375.0078.480.130.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0385.7172.940.000.01
High PointBSth0.280.0362.5056.410.070.00
James MadisonCAA0.280.0370.0060.790.110.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.250.0371.4359.920.110.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.280.0325.0023.43-0.14-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0330.0028.50-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.250.030.0018.94-0.25-0.02
OaklandHorz0.250.0330.0031.57-0.10-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.280.0375.0058.430.140.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.280.0350.0058.360.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0316.6730.84-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.250.0330.0037.28-0.10-0.01
UCLAP120.000.0372.7357.280.000.00
UNLVMWC0.280.0375.0050.750.140.00
USCP120.000.0360.0036.120.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0071.820.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0340.0028.86-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0360.0057.600.000.00