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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Marquette

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:92.0
Current RPI:92
Expected SOS:56
Current SOS:56
Current Record:17-15
Expected Record:17-15
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:135
Expected OOC SOS:166



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-1592.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Marquette.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Southern (171.0)SWACH63-56W100%0.0
11-12Grambling St. (348.0)SWACH114-71W100%0.0
11-16Ohio St. (24.0)B10H35-52L0%0.0
11-21New Hampshire (340.0)AEH58-53W100%0.0
11-25Arizona St. (44.0)P12A79-77L0%0.0
11-28Cal St. Fullerton (286.0)BWA66-86W100%0.0
11-29George Washington (29.0)A10N76-60W100%0.0
12-1San Diego St. (15.0)MWCN67-59L0%0.0
12-7Wisconsin (6.0)B10A70-64L0%0.0
12-14IUPUI (322.0)SumH86-50W100%0.0
12-17Ball St. (309.0)MACH91-53W100%0.0
12-21New Mexico (12.0)MWCN75-68L0%0.0
12-28Samford (313.0)SCH71-48W100%0.0
12-31Creighton (10.0)BEA67-49L0%0.0
1-4DePaul (154.0)BEH66-56W100%0.0
1-9Xavier (47.0)BEA86-79L0%0.0
1-11Seton Hall (128.0)BEH67-66W100%0.0
1-18Butler (150.0)BEA69-57L0%0.0
1-20Georgetown (69.0)BEA72-80W100%0.0
1-25Villanova (5.0)BEH85-94L0%0.0
1-30Providence (40.0)BEH61-50W100%0.0
2-1St. John's (67.0)BEA74-59L0%0.0
2-4Butler (150.0)BEH69-62W100%0.0
2-11Seton Hall (128.0)BEA66-77W100%0.0
2-15Xavier (47.0)BEH81-72W100%0.0
2-19Creighton (10.0)BEH70-85L0%0.0
2-22DePaul (154.0)BEA94-96W100%0.0
2-27Georgetown (69.0)BEH75-73W100%0.0
3-2Villanova (5.0)BEA73-56L0%0.0
3-4Providence (40.0)BEA81-80L0%0.0
3-8St. John's (67.0)BEH90-91L0%0.0
3-13Xavier (47.0)BEN68-65L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Marquette's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Marquette's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Marquette.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MarquetteBE26.3326.3350.7450.740.390.39
XavierBE5.515.5162.0762.071.331.33
CreightonBE4.194.1977.4277.422.302.30
DePaulBE4.104.1038.7138.71-0.93-0.93
Seton HallBE4.104.1053.1253.120.260.26
ProvidenceBE4.104.1068.7568.751.541.54
St. John'sBE4.024.0260.0060.000.800.80
ButlerBE4.014.0142.8642.86-0.57-0.57
VillanovaBE3.993.9986.6786.672.932.93
GeorgetownBE3.993.9958.6258.620.690.69
Grambling St.SWAC1.691.6915.3815.38-1.17-1.17
Arizona St.P121.691.6964.5264.520.490.49
San Diego St.MWC1.681.6886.6786.671.231.23
New MexicoMWC1.641.6481.2581.251.021.02
WisconsinB101.631.6378.1278.120.920.92
SouthernSWAC1.621.6257.1457.140.230.23
Ball St.MAC1.611.6111.1111.11-1.26-1.26
George WashingtonA101.611.6177.4277.420.880.88
Ohio St.B101.591.5972.7372.730.720.72
Cal St. FullertonBW1.561.5636.6736.67-0.42-0.42
IUPUISum1.561.5610.7110.71-1.23-1.23
New HampshireAE1.561.5617.8617.86-1.00-1.00
SamfordSC1.561.5634.4834.48-0.48-0.48
IowaB100.220.2261.2961.290.050.05
EvansvilleMVC0.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
UNLVMWC0.170.1760.6160.610.040.04
USCP120.170.1732.2632.26-0.06-0.06
PurdueB100.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.160.1630.3030.30-0.06-0.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.160.1632.1432.14-0.06-0.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.160.1637.9337.93-0.04-0.04
KansasB120.150.1572.7372.730.070.07
TennesseeSEC0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
NorthwesternB100.140.1442.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.140.1476.4776.470.080.08
La SalleA100.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
NebraskaB100.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
Miami OHMAC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
NJITind0.120.1236.0036.00-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
MaineAE0.120.1217.8617.86-0.08-0.08
VCUA100.120.1276.4776.470.070.07
Long Beach St.BW0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.120.1217.2417.24-0.08-0.08
Utah St.MWC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
MassachusettsA100.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
Penn St.B100.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.07-0.07
UMBCAE0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
ElonSC0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
ArizonaP120.100.1088.2488.240.080.08
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
OregonP120.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
FordhamA100.100.1032.2632.26-0.03-0.03
SyracuseACC0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
Rhode IslandA100.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
IndianaB100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
CaliforniaP120.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Oregon St.P120.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
WyomingMWC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
LafayettePat0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.03-0.03
MarylandACC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
IllinoisB100.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
MichiganB100.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
DenverSum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
IPFWSum0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
OhioMAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Appalachian St.SC0.080.0819.2319.23-0.05-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0878.5778.570.040.04
UtahP120.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Washington St.P120.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.080.0838.4638.46-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
DavidsonSC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
StanfordP120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
BrownIvy0.070.0751.8551.850.000.00
YaleIvy0.070.0751.8551.850.000.00
NevadaMWC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TulsaCUSA0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
DelawareCAA0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
RutgersAmer0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0681.2581.250.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
AlbanyAE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
FurmanSC0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
LamarSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
LSUSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0570.3770.370.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
WoffordSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0594.1294.120.040.04
Cal PolyBW0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
High PointBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
LipscombASun0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
BryantNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0534.6234.62-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
ColoradoP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
PennIvy0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0514.8114.81-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
TexasB120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.2121.21-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
TCUB120.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
BaylorB120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0393.1093.100.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckySB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.033.573.57-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
DaytonA100.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
HofstraCAA0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
RichmondA100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Texas TechB120.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0246.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
VirginiaACC0.020.0282.3582.350.020.02
West VirginiaB120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
AmericanPat0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00