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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Marquette

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:13.0
Current RPI:13
Expected SOS:14
Current SOS:14
Current Record:23-8
Expected Record:23-8
Current Conf Record:14-5
Expected Conf Record:14-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:43
Expected OOC SOS:84



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-813.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Marquette.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Colgate (256.0)PatH84-63W100%0.0
11-13Southeastern Louisiana (227.0)SlndH64-53W100%0.0
11-19Butler (22.0)A10N71-72L0%0.0
11-20Mississippi St. (232.0)SECN62-89W100%0.0
11-21Southern California (118.0)P12N64-72W100%0.0
11-26MD Baltimore County (298.0)AEH79-46W100%0.0
11-29Florida (7.0)SECA82-49L0%0.0
12-8Wisconsin (32.0)B10H60-50W100%0.0
12-15Savannah St. (166.0)MEACH71-51W100%0.0
12-19Wisconsin Green Bay (160.0)HorzA49-47L0%0.0
12-22Louisiana St. (86.0)SECH84-80W100%0.0
12-29North Carolina Central (155.0)MEACH75-66W100%0.0
1-1Connecticut (49.0)BEH82-76W100%0.0
1-5Georgetown (11.0)BEH49-48W100%0.0
1-12Pittsburgh (44.0)BEA67-74W100%0.0
1-16Seton Hall (138.0)BEH69-62W100%0.0
1-19Cincinnati (50.0)BEA71-69L0%0.0
1-26Providence (91.0)BEH81-71W100%0.0
1-28South Florida (156.0)BEH63-50W100%0.0
2-3Louisville (3.0)BEA70-51L0%0.0
2-6South Florida (156.0)BEA47-70W100%0.0
2-9DePaul (204.0)BEH89-78W100%0.0
2-11Georgetown (11.0)BEA63-55L0%0.0
2-16Pittsburgh (44.0)BEH79-69W100%0.0
2-19Seton Hall (138.0)BEA46-67W100%0.0
2-23Villanova (52.0)BEA60-56L0%0.0
2-25Syracuse (14.0)BEH74-71W100%0.0
3-2Notre Dame (35.0)BEH72-64W100%0.0
3-5Rutgers (109.0)BEA54-60W100%0.0
3-9St. John's (96.0)BEA67-69W100%0.0
3-14Notre Dame (35.0)BEN65-73L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Marquette's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Marquette's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Marquette.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MarquetteBE26.0426.0476.8676.8613.9913.99
Seton HallBE3.833.8348.3948.39-0.12-0.12
Notre DameBE3.803.8075.0075.001.901.90
South FloridaBE3.783.7841.3841.38-0.65-0.65
GeorgetownBE3.773.7782.7682.762.472.47
PittsburghBE3.753.7580.0080.002.252.25
SyracuseBE2.392.3976.4776.471.271.27
LouisvilleBE2.332.3384.8584.851.631.63
CincinnatiBE2.292.2965.6265.620.720.72
RutgersBE2.292.2950.0050.000.000.00
DePaulBE2.272.2735.4835.48-0.66-0.66
VillanovaBE2.272.2758.0658.060.370.37
ProvidenceBE2.262.2656.6756.670.300.30
St. John'sBE2.242.2453.3353.330.150.15
ConnecticutBE2.192.1968.9768.970.830.83
FloridaSEC1.791.7978.1278.121.011.01
Louisiana St.SEC1.761.7663.3363.330.470.47
Mississippi St.SEC1.741.7432.2632.26-0.62-0.62
Savannah St.MEAC1.691.6956.6756.670.230.23
WisconsinB101.691.6969.7069.700.670.67
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.661.6670.3770.370.680.68
ColgatePat1.661.6635.4835.48-0.48-0.48
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.661.6639.2939.29-0.36-0.36
MD Baltimore CountyAE1.641.6424.1424.14-0.85-0.85
Wisconsin Green BayHorz1.641.6451.6151.610.050.05
ButlerA101.611.6175.0075.000.810.81
Southern CaliforniaP121.611.6145.1645.16-0.16-0.16
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.210.2152.9452.940.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.200.2046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.200.2062.5062.500.050.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.190.1937.5037.50-0.05-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.180.187.147.14-0.16-0.16
South CarolinaSEC0.180.1843.7543.75-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
Central FloridaCUSA0.150.1562.0762.070.040.04
TennesseeSEC0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.150.1548.0048.00-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
MissouriSEC0.150.1569.7069.700.060.06
ArkansasSEC0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
HowardMEAC0.130.1320.6920.69-0.08-0.08
Stony BrookAE0.130.1376.6776.670.070.07
AmericanPat0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
FordhamA100.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
DuquesneA100.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
WashingtonP120.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
LehighPat0.130.1368.9768.970.050.05
VanderbiltSEC0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.120.1220.0020.00-0.07-0.07
IndianaB100.120.1281.8281.820.080.08
IllinoisB100.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.06-0.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.110.1114.2914.29-0.08-0.08
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
New HampshireAE0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
MaineAE0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
UCLAP120.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
AuburnSEC0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
St. LouisA100.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
George WashingtonA100.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.GWC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.1010.0010.00-0.08-0.08
MichiganB100.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
Ohio St.B100.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
PurdueB100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MonmouthNEC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0885.1985.190.060.06
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0870.3770.370.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Boston UniversityAE0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
BinghamtonAE0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
George MasonCAA0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
TowsonCAA0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
PennsylvaniaIvy0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
DelawareCAA0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
St. Peter'sMAAC0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Michigan St.B100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
CaliforniaP120.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
DaytonA100.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
La SalleA100.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
BrownIvy0.070.0744.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
XavierA100.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
TempleA100.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
MinnesotaB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
NebraskaB100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Utah ValleyGWC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.060.069.689.68-0.04-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSlnd0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
QuinnipiacNEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
NC AshevilleBSth0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
StetsonASun0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Middle TennesseeSB0.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
ArmyPat0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
BucknellPat0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
NavyPat0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
OaklandSum0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
UtahP120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonSC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
ElonSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
New Orleansind0.050.0518.1818.18-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
OregonP120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
CornellIvy0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Western KentuckySB0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Long IslandNEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Brigham YoungWCC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
IowaB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
SamfordSC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechWAC0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
North TexasSB0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
BaylorB120.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
NC GreensboroSC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
IdahoWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Texas San AntonioWAC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
CharlotteA100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0293.7593.750.020.02
Iowa St.B120.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
IUPUISum0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
RichmondA100.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Virginia CommonwealthA100.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
YaleIvy0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
CreightonMVC0.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
DukeACC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
Florida InternationalSB0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
MemphisCUSA0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00