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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Marquette

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:52.5
Current RPI:47
Expected SOS:26
Current SOS:27
Current Record:13-6
Expected Record:18-12
Current Conf Record:4-3
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:89
Expected OOC SOS:124



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-715.70.11%
22-820.91.41%
21-927.04.84%
20-1035.212.86%
19-1144.022.37%
18-1252.924.55%
17-1362.619.64%
16-1474.510.21%
15-1589.03.37%
14-16103.70.61%
13-17120.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Marquette.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Mount St. Mary's (257.2)NECH80-59W100%0.0
11-14Purdue (6.5)B10H71-86L0%0.0
11-20VCU (128.6)A10N83-94W100%0.0
11-21Wichita St. (17.9)AmerN80-66L0%0.0
11-22LSU (103.4)SECN84-94W100%0.0
11-27Eastern Illinois (270.0)OVCH86-83W100%0.0
11-29Chicago St. (335.8)WACH95-69W100%0.0
12-2Georgia (68.2)SECH66-73L0%0.0
12-5Vermont (57.0)AEH91-81W100%0.0
12-9Wisconsin (130.2)B10A63-82W100%0.0
12-18Northern Illinois (226.7)MACH79-70W100%0.0
12-21American (307.4)PatH92-51W100%0.0
12-27Xavier (6.2)BEH87-91L0%0.0
12-30Georgetown (143.2)BEH74-65W100%0.0
1-3Providence (43.7)BEA90-95W100%0.0
1-6Villanova (1.9)BEA100-90L0%0.0
1-9Seton Hall (25.8)BEH84-64W100%0.0
1-12Butler (37.3)BEA94-83L0%0.0
1-15DePaul (187.2)BEH70-52W100%0.0
1-24Xavier (6.2)BEA0-022%-8.6
1-28Villanova (1.9)BEH0-022%-8.6
1-31Butler (37.3)BEH0-057%1.9
2-3Providence (43.7)BEH0-065%4.3
2-7Seton Hall (25.8)BEA0-032%-5.2
2-10St. John's (95.0)BEA0-050%-0.0
2-17Creighton (29.1)BEA0-024%-7.8
2-21St. John's (95.0)BEH0-072%6.4
2-24DePaul (187.2)BEA0-066%4.7
2-26Georgetown (143.2)BEA0-060%3.0
3-3Creighton (29.1)BEH0-045%-1.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Marquette's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Marquette's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Marquette.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MarquetteBE26.3026.3261.4556.476.023.41
ButlerBE3.104.2465.0062.480.931.06
Seton HallBE2.894.2478.9570.231.671.71
XavierBE3.034.2485.0079.462.122.50
GeorgetownBE2.974.2372.2256.631.320.56
ProvidenceBE2.834.2173.6863.421.341.13
VillanovaBE2.904.2194.4490.402.573.40
CreightonBE0.464.2175.0071.070.231.77
DePaulBE2.964.2144.4435.57-0.33-1.21
St. John'sBE0.474.2147.3742.39-0.02-0.64
PurdueB102.831.8090.0087.992.261.37
WisconsinB102.821.8052.6347.800.15-0.08
Mount St. Mary'sNEC2.771.7544.4446.57-0.31-0.12
Chicago St.WAC2.841.750.003.23-2.84-1.64
GeorgiaSEC2.701.7264.7154.410.800.15
LSUSEC2.701.7264.7154.990.800.17
VCUA102.701.7263.1661.680.710.40
AmericanPat2.701.7027.7829.14-1.20-0.71
Northern IllinoisMAC2.701.7043.7540.53-0.34-0.32
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.631.6731.2535.24-0.99-0.49
VermontAE2.631.6777.7879.781.460.99
Wichita St.Amer2.631.6777.7876.581.460.89
NebraskaB100.210.2266.6759.780.070.04
NorthwesternB100.200.2255.0050.370.020.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.220.2052.3848.520.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.130.1736.8432.79-0.03-0.06
Notre DameACC0.350.1763.1661.050.090.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.140.1730.0033.49-0.05-0.06
BaylorB120.200.1661.1156.090.040.02
TempleAmer0.210.1652.6351.730.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.130.1672.2268.920.060.06
Western IllinoisSum0.290.1442.8635.25-0.04-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.140.1415.7920.92-0.09-0.08
WagnerNEC0.200.1464.7164.540.060.04
RichmondA100.200.1431.5834.35-0.08-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.200.1423.5328.70-0.11-0.06
HoustonAmer0.280.1478.9572.990.160.06
VanderbiltSEC0.140.1436.8435.55-0.04-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.200.1447.0652.51-0.010.01
IllinoisB100.140.1447.3744.27-0.01-0.02
Michigan St.B100.070.1485.0083.180.050.09
Saint Joseph'sA100.140.1450.0051.650.000.00
MichiganB100.200.1475.0070.270.100.05
MarylandB100.130.1370.0065.320.050.04
MinnesotaB100.130.1363.6457.640.040.02
Rhode IslandA100.130.1383.3381.410.090.08
RutgersB100.190.1357.8947.140.03-0.01
Saint LouisA100.130.1347.3746.91-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.140.1271.4374.650.060.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.140.1110.5316.75-0.11-0.08
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.1170.0071.230.030.05
MaineAE0.140.1110.5314.86-0.11-0.08
BucknellPat0.200.1161.9068.010.050.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.140.1123.5332.62-0.07-0.04
IowaB100.210.1147.6244.03-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.140.1122.2227.51-0.08-0.05
MissouriSEC0.070.1166.6763.200.020.03
UCFAmer0.000.1168.4260.880.000.02
YaleIvy0.140.1141.1847.51-0.02-0.01
Arizona St.P120.060.1178.9576.130.040.06
CincinnatiAmer0.060.1189.4785.520.050.08
ConnecticutAmer0.140.1152.6347.390.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.070.1180.9583.260.040.07
Stony BrookAE0.140.1138.8946.68-0.03-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.130.1121.0523.50-0.08-0.06
MassachusettsA100.140.1150.0046.780.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.130.1145.0043.49-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.130.1157.8950.680.020.00
Ohio St.B100.130.1180.9576.520.080.06
RiderMAAC0.130.1165.0065.370.040.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.200.1168.4270.810.070.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.150.0926.3231.52-0.07-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.140.0935.2940.48-0.04-0.02
BradleyMVC0.210.0965.0057.870.060.01
Green BayHorz0.220.0925.0027.94-0.11-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.140.099.5217.94-0.11-0.06
HowardMEAC0.140.0910.5327.31-0.11-0.04
LehighPat0.140.0938.8944.75-0.03-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.140.0922.2228.67-0.08-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.140.0952.9459.250.010.02
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0952.9452.230.000.00
UMKCWAC0.070.0921.0524.71-0.04-0.04
BryantNEC0.140.099.5217.08-0.12-0.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.150.0842.1145.97-0.02-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.070.0847.0641.45-0.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.140.0829.4138.15-0.06-0.02
UMBCAE0.140.0858.8258.360.020.01
North FloridaASun0.210.0831.5835.15-0.08-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.150.0868.4258.990.050.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0812.5025.47-0.05-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.070.0868.4264.200.030.02
AuburnSEC0.070.0889.4777.030.060.05
FloridaSEC0.000.0873.6871.550.000.04
KentuckySEC0.220.0873.6867.950.100.03
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0861.1151.900.020.00
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0868.4263.980.030.02
USC UpstateASun0.070.0811.1117.96-0.06-0.05
Kent St.MAC0.140.0844.4444.86-0.02-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.140.0847.3748.17-0.01-0.00
PennIvy0.150.0864.7162.780.040.02
UCLAP120.070.0865.0062.040.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.140.0829.4130.67-0.06-0.03
La SalleA100.140.0840.0042.72-0.03-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.130.0877.7869.360.070.03
TexasB120.130.0863.1657.620.030.01
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0644.4445.98-0.01-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.080.0670.5975.930.030.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0642.1143.50-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.150.0658.8262.830.030.02
IUPUIHorz0.140.0627.7829.84-0.06-0.02
ArmyPat0.070.0661.1160.530.020.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0661.1158.750.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0650.0053.160.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0658.8249.760.01-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.080.0672.2274.900.030.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0629.4133.22-0.03-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0662.5058.700.000.01
ColgatePat0.070.0650.0051.040.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0646.6746.98-0.01-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0626.3230.430.00-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0633.3333.80-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0640.0042.57-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.070.0660.0055.160.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0683.3384.230.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0655.5656.710.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.070.0644.4446.64-0.01-0.00
OhioMAC0.150.0647.0648.44-0.01-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0657.1460.400.000.01
SeattleWAC0.070.0657.8954.500.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0633.3335.19-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.070.0668.4261.270.030.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0666.6767.690.000.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0645.0045.020.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0666.6766.010.020.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0673.6862.720.030.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.140.0645.0047.05-0.01-0.00
VMISC0.140.0625.0024.17-0.07-0.03
AlbanyAE0.000.0670.0068.050.000.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.0644.4442.740.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.060.009.15-0.07-0.05
DukeACC0.000.0689.4785.190.000.04
HartfordAE0.000.0652.6346.880.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0663.1666.880.000.02
MemphisAmer0.070.0665.0058.490.020.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0652.6345.860.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0672.2258.940.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0637.5045.220.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0629.4134.760.00-0.02
OregonP120.070.0665.0063.830.020.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0657.8950.810.000.00
PortlandWCC0.070.0627.7827.30-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.070.0670.0070.630.030.02
TulsaAmer0.070.0655.0053.290.010.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0660.0062.030.000.01
CaliforniaP120.140.0536.8431.12-0.04-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.070.0566.6768.700.020.02
WinthropBSth0.140.0546.6758.78-0.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0568.4255.060.020.01
BrownIvy0.070.0550.0045.130.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.060.0560.0053.730.010.00
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0520.0032.26-0.04-0.02
DaytonA100.070.0547.3750.95-0.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0577.7879.160.030.03
FordhamA100.070.0531.5829.06-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.060.0566.6768.500.020.02
George MasonA100.000.0545.0041.350.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0520.0041.76-0.04-0.01
HofstraCAA0.070.0557.8959.470.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.055.8819.37-0.06-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0516.6724.91-0.04-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.060.0568.4263.640.020.01
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0527.7840.88-0.03-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0550.0051.480.000.00
NJITASun0.070.0538.8942.60-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.070.0561.9055.770.020.01
Portland St.BSky0.060.0558.8263.210.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0552.9460.270.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0544.4448.91-0.01-0.00
Texas TechB120.070.0578.9571.810.040.02
UtahP120.060.0561.1158.950.010.01
VirginiaACC0.130.0594.4485.440.120.04
WashingtonP120.070.0570.0061.440.030.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0331.5832.72-0.03-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0370.0068.220.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.080.0350.0045.900.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0357.8953.190.000.00
AkronMAC0.080.0347.0644.91-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.070.0355.0049.070.01-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0337.5037.68-0.02-0.01
Iowa St.B120.080.0361.1147.260.02-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0329.4139.62-0.03-0.01
OaklandHorz0.070.0361.9065.160.020.01
PittsburghACC0.070.0340.0030.87-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0329.4127.74-0.03-0.01
West VirginiaB120.070.0384.2178.170.050.02
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0327.7831.12-0.03-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.0356.2556.810.010.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.070.0327.7838.13-0.03-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0366.6765.620.020.01
DartmouthIvy0.070.0321.4326.21-0.04-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0342.1132.48-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0357.8966.250.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.070.0352.6343.120.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.070.0337.5046.63-0.02-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.070.0363.1663.180.020.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0366.6773.240.020.01
OklahomaB120.070.0377.7867.900.040.01
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0368.4254.090.030.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0331.5830.00-0.03-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0390.4888.940.060.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0343.7549.10-0.01-0.00
SamfordSC0.070.0327.7832.66-0.03-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0327.7834.50-0.03-0.01
SienaMAAC0.070.0330.0031.69-0.03-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0372.2272.970.030.01
South FloridaAmer0.070.0335.0026.14-0.02-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0380.0078.860.040.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.037.6923.28-0.06-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0363.1657.900.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0322.2227.33-0.04-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0333.3337.22-0.02-0.01
ArizonaP120.060.0380.0078.980.040.02
DavidsonA100.000.0358.8261.440.000.01
DuquesneA100.070.0370.0058.100.030.00
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0338.8944.14-0.01-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0336.8444.12-0.02-0.00
LipscombASun0.060.0352.9459.360.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0378.9576.760.040.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0327.7831.67-0.03-0.01
ValparaisoMVC0.060.0350.0051.360.000.00