live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Marquette

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:58.0
Current RPI:58
Expected SOS:25
Current SOS:25
Current Record:19-13
Expected Record:19-13
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:98
Expected OOC SOS:137



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1358.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Marquette.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Mount St. Mary's (225.0)NECH80-59W100%0.0
11-14Purdue (9.0)B10H71-86L0%0.0
11-20VCU (135.0)A10N83-94W100%0.0
11-21Wichita St. (16.0)AmerN80-66L0%0.0
11-22LSU (95.0)SECN84-94W100%0.0
11-27Eastern Illinois (262.0)OVCH86-83W100%0.0
11-29Chicago St. (335.0)WACH95-69W100%0.0
12-2Georgia (79.0)SECH66-73L0%0.0
12-5Vermont (60.0)AEH91-81W100%0.0
12-9Wisconsin (114.0)B10A63-82W100%0.0
12-18Northern Illinois (241.0)MACH79-70W100%0.0
12-21American (336.0)PatH92-51W100%0.0
12-27Xavier (3.0)BEH87-91L0%0.0
12-30Georgetown (169.0)BEH74-65W100%0.0
1-3Providence (32.0)BEA90-95W100%0.0
1-6Villanova (2.0)BEA100-90L0%0.0
1-9Seton Hall (31.0)BEH84-64W100%0.0
1-12Butler (41.0)BEA94-83L0%0.0
1-15DePaul (186.0)BEH70-52W100%0.0
1-24Xavier (3.0)BEA89-70L0%0.0
1-28Villanova (2.0)BEH82-85L0%0.0
1-31Butler (41.0)BEH72-92L0%0.0
2-3Providence (32.0)BEH75-77L0%0.0
2-7Seton Hall (31.0)BEA85-88W100%0.0
2-10St. John's (92.0)BEA86-78L0%0.0
2-17Creighton (44.0)BEA86-90W100%0.0
2-21St. John's (92.0)BEH85-73W100%0.0
2-24DePaul (186.0)BEA70-62L0%0.0
2-26Georgetown (169.0)BEA86-90W100%0.0
3-3Creighton (44.0)BEH85-81W100%0.0
3-7DePaul (186.0)BEN72-69W100%0.0
3-8Villanova (2.0)BEN94-70L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Marquette's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Marquette's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Marquette.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MarquetteBE26.4126.4155.3355.332.822.82
VillanovaBE5.615.6187.1087.104.164.16
DePaulBE5.515.5135.7135.71-1.57-1.57
ProvidenceBE4.174.1762.5062.501.041.04
ButlerBE4.144.1458.0658.060.670.67
XavierBE4.124.1283.8783.872.792.79
St. John'sBE4.104.1046.6746.67-0.27-0.27
Seton HallBE4.074.0770.0070.001.631.63
GeorgetownBE4.074.0753.5753.570.290.29
CreightonBE4.044.0468.9768.971.531.53
PurdueB101.681.6881.8281.821.071.07
WisconsinB101.681.6846.8846.88-0.11-0.11
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.641.6455.1755.170.170.17
Chicago St.WAC1.641.643.453.45-1.52-1.52
GeorgiaSEC1.611.6153.1253.120.100.10
VCUA101.611.6156.2556.250.200.20
LSUSEC1.611.6156.6756.670.210.21
AmericanPat1.591.5920.6920.69-0.93-0.93
Northern IllinoisMAC1.591.5937.9337.93-0.38-0.38
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.561.5635.7135.71-0.45-0.45
VermontAE1.561.5681.2581.250.980.98
Wichita St.Amer1.561.5677.4277.420.860.86
NorthwesternB100.220.2245.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.200.2043.7543.75-0.03-0.03
NebraskaB100.200.2068.7568.750.070.07
TempleAmer0.190.1953.1253.120.010.01
Notre DameACC0.180.1857.5857.580.030.03
Michigan St.B100.170.1787.8887.880.130.13
TennesseeSEC0.160.1675.7675.760.080.08
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.150.1530.0030.00-0.06-0.06
LafayettePat0.150.1530.0030.00-0.06-0.06
Sacred HeartNEC0.150.1530.0030.00-0.06-0.06
VanderbiltSEC0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
IllinoisB100.150.1541.9441.94-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
HoustonAmer0.140.1478.7978.790.080.08
Northern IowaMVC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
MichiganB100.140.1479.4179.410.080.08
RutgersB100.140.1442.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
MarylandB100.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.1316.6716.67-0.09-0.09
Alabama A&MSWAC0.130.139.689.68-0.10-0.10
Western IllinoisSum0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
WagnerNEC0.130.1370.0070.000.050.05
MaineAE0.120.1213.3313.33-0.09-0.09
RichmondA100.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.120.1220.0020.00-0.07-0.07
Morehead St.OVC0.120.1222.2222.22-0.07-0.07
MissouriSEC0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.120.1288.2488.240.090.09
ConnecticutAmer0.120.1243.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
MinnesotaB100.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
BelmontOVC0.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
BucknellPat0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
Kent St.MAC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.100.1042.4242.42-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
UCFAmer0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
UMBCAE0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
KentuckySEC0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
Arizona St.P120.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1088.2488.240.070.07
IndianaB100.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
PennIvy0.090.0974.1974.190.050.05
George WashingtonA100.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.090.0975.0075.000.050.05
MassachusettsA100.090.0939.3939.39-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
La SalleA100.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0815.6215.62-0.05-0.05
HowardMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
LehighPat0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
BradleyMVC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Green BayHorz0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
BryantNEC0.080.089.689.68-0.06-0.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.086.676.67-0.07-0.07
OregonP120.080.0864.7164.710.020.02
PortlandWCC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
UCLAP120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.070.0710.7110.71-0.06-0.06
New HampshireAE0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
FloridaSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
DaytonA100.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0726.9226.92-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0760.7160.710.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0582.7682.760.040.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
ColgatePat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
NavyPat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
IUPUIHorz0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VMISC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
IonaMAAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Texas TechB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
TulsaAmer0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
FordhamA100.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
George MasonA100.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
HartfordAE0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Portland St.BSky0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0593.9493.940.040.04
WinthropBSth0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
BrownIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
WashingtonP120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
AkronMAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
SamfordSC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
OklahomaB120.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
DuquesneA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
HarvardIvy0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0284.8584.850.020.02
SienaMAAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0230.7730.77-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
LipscombASun0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
ValparaisoMVC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00