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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Marquette

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:147.0
Current RPI:147
Expected SOS:31
Current SOS:31
Current Record:13-19
Expected Record:13-19
Current Conf Record:5-15
Expected Conf Record:5-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-1
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:144
Expected OOC SOS:172



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-19147.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Marquette.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Tennessee Martin (177.0)OVCH79-63W100%0.0
11-18Ohio St. (41.0)B10A74-63L0%0.0
11-22Nebraska Omaha (300.0)SumH89-97L0%0.0
11-24NJIT (159.0)indH62-57W100%0.0
11-27Georgia Tech (153.0)ACCN70-72W100%0.0
11-28Michigan St. (23.0)B10N68-79L0%0.0
11-30Tennessee (96.0)SECN67-59W100%0.0
12-6Wisconsin (4.0)B10H38-49L0%0.0
12-16Arizona St. (102.0)P12H78-71W100%0.0
12-19Alabama A&M (330.0)SWACH83-49W100%0.0
12-22North Dakota (310.0)BSkyH67-54W100%0.0
12-28Morgan St. (337.0)MEACH81-53W100%0.0
12-31DePaul (197.0)BEA61-58L0%0.0
1-3Providence (22.0)BEH75-66W100%0.0
1-6Georgetown (25.0)BEA65-59L0%0.0
1-14Creighton (151.0)BEH53-52W100%0.0
1-17Xavier (30.0)BEA62-58L0%0.0
1-21St. John's (44.0)BEA60-57L0%0.0
1-24Georgetown (25.0)BEH85-95L0%0.0
1-28Seton Hall (97.0)BEH70-80L0%0.0
1-31Butler (31.0)BEH68-72L0%0.0
2-4Villanova (3.0)BEA70-52L0%0.0
2-7Seton Hall (97.0)BEA54-57W100%0.0
2-10Xavier (30.0)BEH44-64L0%0.0
2-14Creighton (151.0)BEA77-70L0%0.0
2-21Villanova (3.0)BEH76-87L0%0.0
2-25Butler (31.0)BEA73-52L0%0.0
3-1Providence (22.0)BEA77-66L0%0.0
3-4St. John's (44.0)BEH51-67L0%0.0
3-7DePaul (197.0)BEH58-48W100%0.0
3-11Seton Hall (97.0)BEN56-78W100%0.0
3-12Villanova (3.0)BEN84-49L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Marquette's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Marquette's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Marquette.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MarquetteBE26.4226.4234.5134.51-8.19-8.19
VillanovaBE5.645.6493.5593.554.914.91
Seton HallBE5.505.5053.5753.570.390.39
XavierBE4.174.1759.3859.380.780.78
GeorgetownBE4.164.1665.5265.521.291.29
ButlerBE4.144.1466.6766.671.381.38
ProvidenceBE4.124.1267.7467.741.461.46
CreightonBE4.104.1041.9441.94-0.66-0.66
St. John'sBE4.074.0762.0762.070.980.98
DePaulBE4.044.0436.6736.67-1.08-1.08
WisconsinB101.681.6890.9190.911.381.38
NJITind1.681.6858.3358.330.280.28
Michigan St.B101.661.6666.6766.670.550.55
Ohio St.B101.631.6368.7568.750.610.61
TennesseeSEC1.611.6151.6151.610.050.05
Tennessee MartinOVC1.611.6159.2659.260.300.30
Georgia TechACC1.591.5940.0040.00-0.32-0.32
Nebraska OmahaSum1.591.5937.0437.04-0.41-0.41
North DakotaBSky1.591.5922.2222.22-0.88-0.88
Alabama A&MSWAC1.591.5929.6329.63-0.65-0.65
Arizona St.P121.561.5654.8454.840.150.15
Morgan St.MEAC1.561.5623.3323.33-0.83-0.83
MichiganB100.240.2448.3948.39-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.220.2260.6160.610.050.05
NebraskaB100.200.2041.9441.94-0.03-0.03
MinnesotaB100.190.1953.1253.120.010.01
NorthwesternB100.190.1946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.190.1910.0010.00-0.15-0.15
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.180.1856.2556.250.020.02
IllinoisB100.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
Illinois St.MVC0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
Chicago St.WAC0.150.1517.2417.24-0.10-0.10
RutgersB100.150.1531.2531.25-0.05-0.05
SyracuseACC0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.140.1451.7251.720.000.00
Penn St.B100.140.1452.9452.940.010.01
MarylandB100.140.1481.8281.820.090.09
Murray St.OVC0.130.1383.3383.330.090.09
GeorgiaSEC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
George WashingtonA100.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.120.1268.9768.970.050.05
North CarolinaACC0.120.1268.5768.570.050.05
DukeACC0.120.1287.8887.880.090.09
Notre DameACC0.120.1285.2985.290.090.09
OklahomaB120.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
IowaB100.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
PurdueB100.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
AlbanyAE0.110.1175.0075.000.050.05
HamptonMEAC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1064.7164.710.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
South DakotaSum0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
IUPUISum0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
MercerSC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
KansasB120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
StanfordP120.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
VCUA100.090.0974.2974.290.050.05
UMass LowellAE0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0862.9662.960.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
IPFWSum0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
DrakeMVC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
UtahP120.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0847.0647.06-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
TowsonCAA0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.086.906.90-0.06-0.06
FloridaSEC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Miami FLACC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0775.8675.860.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
CaliforniaP120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.070.07100.00100.000.070.07
MississippiSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
AuburnSEC0.070.0741.1841.18-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
NavyPat0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
DelawareCAA0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
PennIvy0.070.0732.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.060.000.00-0.06-0.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0618.7518.75-0.03-0.03
MontanaBSky0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0590.9190.910.040.04
Kansas St.B120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0593.9493.940.040.04
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
USCP120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
BrownIvy0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0565.5265.520.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0586.6786.670.030.03
UTEPCUSA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
DuquesneA100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UMBCAE0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0390.6290.620.020.02
DetroitHorz0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
HarvardIvy0.020.0274.0774.070.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
UCLAP120.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
WashingtonP120.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Washington St.P120.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Green BayHorz0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.020.0229.6329.63-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00