Marquette

Conference:	BE
Expected RPI:	58.0
Current RPI:	58
Expected SOS:	25
Current SOS:	25
Current Record:	19-13
Expected Record:	19-13
Current Conf Record:	10-10
Expected Conf Record:	10-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-0
Current OOC Record:	9-3
Expected OOC Record:	9-3
Expected OOC RPI:	98
Expected OOC SOS:	137

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
19-13	58.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Marquette.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Mount St. Mary's (225.0)	NEC	H	80-59	W	100%
11-14	Purdue (9.0)	B10	H	71-86	L	0%
11-20	VCU (135.0)	A10	N	83-94	W	100%
11-21	Wichita St. (16.0)	Amer	N	80-66	L	0%
11-22	LSU (95.0)	SEC	N	84-94	W	100%
11-27	Eastern Illinois (262.0)	OVC	H	86-83	W	100%
11-29	Chicago St. (335.0)	WAC	H	95-69	W	100%
12-2	Georgia (79.0)	SEC	H	66-73	L	0%
12-5	Vermont (60.0)	AE	H	91-81	W	100%
12-9	Wisconsin (114.0)	B10	A	63-82	W	100%
12-18	Northern Illinois (241.0)	MAC	H	79-70	W	100%
12-21	American (336.0)	Pat	H	92-51	W	100%
12-27	Xavier (3.0)	BE	H	87-91	L	0%
12-30	Georgetown (169.0)	BE	H	74-65	W	100%
1-3	Providence (32.0)	BE	A	90-95	W	100%
1-6	Villanova (2.0)	BE	A	100-90	L	0%
1-9	Seton Hall (31.0)	BE	H	84-64	W	100%
1-12	Butler (41.0)	BE	A	94-83	L	0%
1-15	DePaul (186.0)	BE	H	70-52	W	100%
1-24	Xavier (3.0)	BE	A	89-70	L	0%
1-28	Villanova (2.0)	BE	H	82-85	L	0%
1-31	Butler (41.0)	BE	H	72-92	L	0%
2-3	Providence (32.0)	BE	H	75-77	L	0%
2-7	Seton Hall (31.0)	BE	A	85-88	W	100%
2-10	St. John's (92.0)	BE	A	86-78	L	0%
2-17	Creighton (44.0)	BE	A	86-90	W	100%
2-21	St. John's (92.0)	BE	H	85-73	W	100%
2-24	DePaul (186.0)	BE	A	70-62	L	0%
2-26	Georgetown (169.0)	BE	A	86-90	W	100%
3-3	Creighton (44.0)	BE	H	85-81	W	100%
3-7	DePaul (186.0)	BE	N	72-69	W	100%
3-8	Villanova (2.0)	BE	N	94-70	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Marquette's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Marquette's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Marquette.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Marquette	BE	26.41	26.41	55.33	55.33	2.82	2.82
Villanova	BE	5.61	5.61	87.10	87.10	4.16	4.16
DePaul	BE	5.51	5.51	35.71	35.71	-1.57	-1.57
Providence	BE	4.17	4.17	62.50	62.50	1.04	1.04
Butler	BE	4.14	4.14	58.06	58.06	0.67	0.67
Xavier	BE	4.12	4.12	83.87	83.87	2.79	2.79
St. John's	BE	4.10	4.10	46.67	46.67	-0.27	-0.27
Seton Hall	BE	4.07	4.07	70.00	70.00	1.63	1.63
Georgetown	BE	4.07	4.07	53.57	53.57	0.29	0.29
Creighton	BE	4.04	4.04	68.97	68.97	1.53	1.53
Purdue	B10	1.68	1.68	81.82	81.82	1.07	1.07
Wisconsin	B10	1.68	1.68	46.88	46.88	-0.11	-0.11
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	1.64	1.64	55.17	55.17	0.17	0.17
Chicago St.	WAC	1.64	1.64	3.45	3.45	-1.52	-1.52
Georgia	SEC	1.61	1.61	53.12	53.12	0.10	0.10
VCU	A10	1.61	1.61	56.25	56.25	0.20	0.20
LSU	SEC	1.61	1.61	56.67	56.67	0.21	0.21
American	Pat	1.59	1.59	20.69	20.69	-0.93	-0.93
Northern Illinois	MAC	1.59	1.59	37.93	37.93	-0.38	-0.38
Eastern Illinois	OVC	1.56	1.56	35.71	35.71	-0.45	-0.45
Vermont	AE	1.56	1.56	81.25	81.25	0.98	0.98
Wichita St.	Amer	1.56	1.56	77.42	77.42	0.86	0.86
Northwestern	B10	0.22	0.22	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.20	0.20	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.20	0.20	68.75	68.75	0.07	0.07
Temple	Amer	0.19	0.19	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.18	0.18	57.58	57.58	0.03	0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.17	0.17	87.88	87.88	0.13	0.13
Tennessee	SEC	0.16	0.16	75.76	75.76	0.08	0.08
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.15	0.15	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
Lafayette	Pat	0.15	0.15	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.15	0.15	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.15	0.15	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Illinois	B10	0.15	0.15	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.15	0.15	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Houston	Amer	0.14	0.14	78.79	78.79	0.08	0.08
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.14	0.14	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.14	0.14	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
Michigan	B10	0.14	0.14	79.41	79.41	0.08	0.08
Rutgers	B10	0.14	0.14	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Maryland	B10	0.14	0.14	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.13	0.13	16.67	16.67	-0.09	-0.09
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.13	0.13	9.68	9.68	-0.10	-0.10
Western Illinois	Sum	0.13	0.13	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Wagner	NEC	0.13	0.13	70.00	70.00	0.05	0.05
Maine	AE	0.12	0.12	13.33	13.33	-0.09	-0.09
Richmond	A10	0.12	0.12	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.12	0.12	20.00	20.00	-0.07	-0.07
Morehead St.	OVC	0.12	0.12	22.22	22.22	-0.07	-0.07
Missouri	SEC	0.12	0.12	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.12	0.12	88.24	88.24	0.09	0.09
Connecticut	Amer	0.12	0.12	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.12	0.12	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.12	0.12	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Belmont	OVC	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Bucknell	Pat	0.10	0.10	73.53	73.53	0.05	0.05
Kent St.	MAC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa	B10	0.10	0.10	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UCF	Amer	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
UMBC	AE	0.10	0.10	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Arizona St.	P12	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Cincinnati	Amer	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.07	0.07
Indiana	B10	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Penn	Ivy	0.09	0.09	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
George Washington	A10	0.09	0.09	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.09	0.09	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Massachusetts	A10	0.09	0.09	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.09	0.09	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
La Salle	A10	0.09	0.09	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	15.62	15.62	-0.05	-0.05
Howard	MEAC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Lehigh	Pat	0.08	0.08	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Loyola MD	Pat	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	83.33	83.33	0.05	0.05
Robert Morris	NEC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.08	0.08	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Green Bay	Horz	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
UMKC	WAC	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Bryant	NEC	0.08	0.08	9.68	9.68	-0.06	-0.06
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	6.67	6.67	-0.07	-0.07
Oregon	P12	0.08	0.08	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Portland	WCC	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
North Florida	ASun	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.07	0.07	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.07	0.07	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
UCLA	P12	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
USC Upstate	ASun	0.07	0.07	10.71	10.71	-0.06	-0.06
New Hampshire	AE	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Florida	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
UMass Lowell	AE	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.07	0.07	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.07	0.07	26.92	26.92	-0.03	-0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.07	0.07	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	82.76	82.76	0.04	0.04
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Boston University	Pat	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
North Dakota	BSky	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
UT Arlington	SB	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
IUPUI	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
VMI	SC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	MAAC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	Slnd	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
NJIT	ASun	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
SMU	Amer	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Tulsa	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Albany	AE	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
George Mason	A10	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	93.94	93.94	0.04	0.04
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Horz	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	CAA	0.02	0.02	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.02	0.02	80.00	80.00	0.01	0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.02	0.02	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Appalachian St.	SB	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.02	0.02	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.02	0.02	23.08	23.08	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	A10	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.02	0.02	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.02	0.02	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.02	0.02	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.02	0.02	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00