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Through games of Feb 12, 2016.


UCLA

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:69.9
Current RPI:73
Expected SOS:7
Current SOS:14
Current Record:13-11
Expected Record:16-15
Current Conf Record:4-7
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:55
Expected OOC SOS:20



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1128.10.60%
19-1237.94.42%
18-1350.814.88%
17-1463.027.28%
16-1574.528.57%
15-1686.617.60%
14-17100.75.99%
13-18117.20.65%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UCLA.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Monmouth (39.7)MAACH81-84L0%0.0
11-15Cal Poly (220.9)BWH88-83W100%0.0
11-19Pepperdine (109.7)WCCH81-67W100%0.0
11-23UNLV (121.0)MWCN77-75W100%0.0
11-24Kansas (4.0)B12N73-92L0%0.0
11-25Wake Forest (132.6)ACCN77-80L0%0.0
11-29Cal St. Northridge (270.7)BWH77-45W100%0.0
12-3Kentucky (16.9)SECH87-77W100%0.0
12-6Long Beach St. (98.7)BWH83-76W100%0.0
12-12Gonzaga (48.8)WCCA66-71W100%0.0
12-15Louisiana Lafayette (102.5)SBH89-80W100%0.0
12-19North Carolina (10.8)ACCN76-89L0%0.0
12-22McNeese St. (323.6)SlndH67-53W100%0.0
1-1Washington (65.7)P12A96-93L0%0.0
1-3Washington St. (186.4)P12A85-78L0%0.0
1-7Arizona (25.7)P12H87-84W100%0.0
1-9Arizona St. (71.2)P12H81-74W100%0.0
1-13USC (23.9)P12H75-89L0%0.0
1-20Oregon St. (48.4)P12A73-82W100%0.0
1-23Oregon (6.4)P12A86-72L0%0.0
1-28Washington (65.7)P12H84-86L0%0.0
1-30Washington St. (186.4)P12H83-50W100%0.0
2-4USC (23.9)P12A80-61L0%0.0
2-12Arizona (25.7)P12A81-75L0%0.0
2-14Arizona St. (71.2)P12A0-039%-2.9
2-18Utah (25.7)P12H0-053%0.9
2-20Colorado (43.6)P12H0-060%2.8
2-25California (35.8)P12A0-028%-6.3
2-27Stanford (97.6)P12A0-051%0.4
3-2Oregon (6.4)P12H0-045%-1.4
3-5Oregon St. (48.4)P12H0-066%4.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UCLA's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UCLA's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UCLA.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UCLAP1226.4326.2349.0048.21-0.53-0.94
USCP124.964.0972.7369.152.251.57
ArizonaP124.874.0182.6180.723.182.46
Arizona St.P122.873.9858.3355.230.480.42
WashingtonP124.723.9559.0957.300.860.58
Washington St.P124.723.9533.3330.28-1.57-1.56
OregonP122.433.9378.2677.191.382.14
Oregon St.P122.383.8966.6761.970.790.93
ColoradoP120.452.3770.8366.460.190.78
UtahP120.452.3770.8369.280.190.92
CaliforniaP120.262.3766.6764.540.090.69
StanfordP120.262.3647.6243.90-0.01-0.29
Long Beach St.BW2.451.8650.0053.780.000.14
GonzagaWCC2.431.8382.6180.281.591.11
Cal St. NorthridgeBW2.351.8133.3331.19-0.78-0.68
Cal PolyBW2.351.8130.0035.41-0.94-0.53
UNLVMWC2.301.8054.5557.050.210.25
PepperdineWCC2.311.7560.8763.160.500.46
MonmouthMAAC2.261.7280.0081.281.351.07
KansasB122.171.7081.8278.491.380.97
KentuckySEC2.171.6978.2675.041.230.85
Louisiana LafayetteSB2.181.6763.1664.650.570.49
McNeese St.Slnd2.141.6423.5332.42-1.13-0.58
North CarolinaACC2.131.6482.6177.671.390.91
Wake ForestACC2.131.6439.1337.83-0.46-0.40
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.450.4145.4551.69-0.040.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.280.2833.3330.63-0.09-0.11
UC IrvineBW0.230.2569.5770.020.090.10
Fresno St.MWC0.310.2263.6461.560.080.05
TexasB120.260.2266.6762.200.090.05
Boise St.MWC0.260.2160.8760.430.060.04
UC RiversideBW0.230.2045.8341.64-0.02-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.220.2041.6741.18-0.04-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.180.2081.8281.780.110.13
BYUWCC0.180.1968.0070.260.060.08
San DiegoWCC0.260.1930.4328.20-0.10-0.08
DukeACC0.130.1975.0071.810.070.08
HawaiiBW0.140.1785.0083.450.100.12
UC DavisBW0.140.1738.1035.34-0.03-0.05
PacificWCC0.170.1723.8125.99-0.09-0.08
Santa ClaraWCC0.210.1733.3332.04-0.07-0.06
New MexicoMWC0.270.1658.3360.710.040.03
San Diego St.MWC0.140.1669.5770.090.050.07
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.1650.0048.970.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.200.1540.0038.87-0.04-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.180.1452.1749.150.01-0.00
OklahomaB120.190.1486.9682.620.140.09
PortlandWCC0.170.1438.4638.04-0.04-0.03
MontanaBSky0.220.1460.0062.700.040.03
Texas A&MSEC0.130.1475.0075.350.070.07
AlabamaSEC0.140.1460.8755.980.030.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.220.149.5212.09-0.18-0.10
Northwestern St.Slnd0.140.1217.6526.60-0.09-0.05
Arkansas St.SB0.150.1140.9138.83-0.03-0.03
NevadaMWC0.090.1157.1455.350.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.090.1182.6183.030.060.07
Idaho St.BSky0.140.1147.6248.05-0.01-0.00
LSUSEC0.140.1162.5059.070.040.02
Colorado St.MWC0.090.1154.5552.530.010.01
Miami FLACC0.100.1182.6177.600.060.06
IonaMAAC0.090.1160.8760.730.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.130.1134.7834.94-0.04-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.140.1145.8342.30-0.01-0.02
IdahoBSky0.180.1156.5255.330.020.01
BaylorB120.090.1173.9168.450.040.04
TCUB120.180.1145.8339.36-0.01-0.02
VirginiaACC0.090.1183.3378.460.060.06
Wichita St.MVC0.130.1173.9176.700.060.06
Notre DameACC0.130.1170.8367.910.050.04
VanderbiltSEC0.130.1158.3359.970.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.170.0926.3232.42-0.08-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0918.1821.06-0.04-0.05
IndianaB100.150.0980.0075.690.090.04
Appalachian St.SB0.150.0925.0028.14-0.07-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.140.0830.0035.92-0.06-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.0850.0049.890.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.0872.2275.710.040.04
RiceCUSA0.050.0827.2728.15-0.02-0.04
SMUAmer0.000.0886.9682.930.000.05
Air ForceMWC0.050.0843.4837.80-0.01-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.090.0850.0052.940.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.130.0856.0055.450.020.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0843.4842.54-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.130.0842.3146.12-0.02-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.040.0840.0045.19-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0870.8367.960.020.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.040.0838.1037.68-0.01-0.02
Texas TechB120.050.0860.8755.310.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.090.0850.0048.120.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.090.0858.3356.290.010.01
SeattleWAC0.090.0845.4543.98-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.090.0852.0048.910.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0829.1726.68-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.130.0879.1776.000.080.04
SyracuseACC0.090.0868.0064.070.030.02
XavierBE0.130.0887.5081.840.100.05
FairfieldMAAC0.120.0854.1754.100.010.01
MissouriSEC0.130.0833.3330.27-0.04-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0623.8129.52-0.00-0.03
LamarSlnd0.000.0630.0029.17-0.00-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0614.2924.87-0.04-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.110.0676.1972.410.060.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0686.3684.240.040.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0642.8641.32-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0655.0053.660.010.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.0645.4549.06-0.01-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.050.0636.3636.29-0.01-0.02
TroySB0.050.0622.7324.37-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0668.1871.340.020.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0655.5652.480.010.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0645.0049.16-0.01-0.00
TulsaAmer0.050.0666.6764.730.020.02
IPFWSum0.050.0670.8368.650.020.02
UMBCAE0.090.0623.0825.89-0.05-0.03
South DakotaSum0.090.0644.0043.56-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0645.4554.18-0.010.00
UTEPCUSA0.090.0654.1754.210.010.00
Wright St.Horz0.090.0554.1753.810.010.00
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0514.2914.92-0.03-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0537.5042.32-0.02-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.040.0550.0054.220.000.00
NavyPat0.040.0564.0064.470.010.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0527.2726.46-0.02-0.03
OaklandHorz0.090.0565.3865.500.030.02
PennIvy0.090.0536.8437.30-0.02-0.01
West VirginiaB120.090.0579.1778.100.050.03
AuburnSEC0.040.0539.1335.44-0.01-0.02
ClemsonACC0.090.0558.3358.410.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.090.0566.6763.330.030.01
Georgia TechACC0.090.0554.1751.980.010.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0572.7367.600.000.02
RichmondA100.040.0556.5255.820.010.01
RutgersB100.080.0521.7420.33-0.05-0.03
TempleAmer0.040.0565.2262.360.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0526.0928.41-0.04-0.02
BelmontOVC0.040.0568.0066.640.010.02
BradleyMVC0.080.0512.0011.95-0.06-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.040.0566.6767.660.010.02
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0542.3144.49-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.040.0564.0062.070.010.01
DavidsonA100.040.0561.9058.180.010.01
FloridaSEC0.040.0566.6766.320.010.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.040.0525.0026.38-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.090.0520.8321.68-0.05-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.040.0545.4543.17-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.080.0521.7424.25-0.05-0.03
MarquetteBE0.040.0564.0057.890.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.040.0523.0823.85-0.02-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.080.0572.0069.130.040.02
RiderMAAC0.040.0538.4641.36-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.080.0565.3864.920.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0516.6719.49-0.06-0.03
YaleIvy0.090.0575.0075.100.040.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.040.0543.4844.24-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0335.0034.87-0.02-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0347.6249.39-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0340.0042.85-0.01-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0372.7370.510.020.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0313.0412.96-0.04-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.040.0360.8757.170.010.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0327.2727.81-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.0330.0031.18-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.0333.3334.02-0.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.040.0320.8323.28-0.03-0.02
DuquesneA100.040.0360.8756.270.010.00
Green BayHorz0.000.0356.5257.690.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0319.0525.89-0.03-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.040.0347.8350.90-0.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0360.0057.680.010.00
VillanovaBE0.000.0387.5086.850.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.040.0370.8370.130.020.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0365.2268.610.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.039.0917.13-0.04-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0323.8122.85-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0370.8368.090.020.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0347.6249.27-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.040.0352.1754.970.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.040.0357.1457.670.010.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.039.0912.25-0.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0359.0961.290.000.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0338.1039.12-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0341.6739.59-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0333.3335.19-0.02-0.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0380.0081.550.030.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0358.3358.580.000.00
Penn St.B100.000.0350.0046.760.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.040.0373.0873.770.020.01
ArmyPat0.040.0354.1754.290.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.040.0356.0056.500.010.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.0314.2920.63-0.00-0.02
CornellIvy0.040.0340.0039.00-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.040.0387.5083.730.030.02
DrexelCAA0.040.0313.0416.41-0.03-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0341.6739.50-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.040.0350.0049.320.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.040.0356.0052.860.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.040.0359.0955.160.010.00
Illinois St.MVC0.040.0356.0054.080.010.00
MarylandB100.040.0387.5083.680.030.02
MississippiSEC0.040.0362.5058.940.010.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0343.4843.76-0.01-0.00
NJITASun0.040.0356.0055.640.010.00
NorthwesternB100.040.0364.0062.090.010.01
Ohio St.B100.040.0360.0055.570.010.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0386.9680.430.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.040.0320.0019.72-0.03-0.02
TulaneAmer0.040.0336.0034.84-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.040.0360.8762.520.010.01
WoffordSC0.040.0345.8348.12-0.00-0.00