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Through games of Nov 21, 2014.


UCLA

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:55.7
Current RPI:199
Expected SOS:28
Current SOS:289
Current Record:3-0
Expected Record:18-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:3-0
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:66
Expected OOC SOS:75



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-33.00.01%
25-45.40.05%
24-58.00.53%
23-610.71.33%
22-715.23.34%
21-821.97.10%
20-929.611.74%
19-1039.116.09%
18-1150.717.71%
17-1264.016.52%
16-1379.512.48%
15-1495.67.15%
14-15113.93.64%
13-16132.81.54%
12-17147.20.51%
11-18164.70.20%
10-19193.70.03%
9-20193.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UCLA.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Montana St. (313.0)BSkyH113-78W100%0.0
11-16Coastal Carolina (139.1)BSthH84-71W100%0.0
11-20Nicholls St. (282.8)SlndH107-74W100%0.0
11-23Long Beach St. (78.2)BWH0-078%9.2
11-26Oklahoma (52.4)B12N0-048%-0.6
12-3Cal St. Fullerton (257.8)BWH0-093%18.0
12-7San Diego (121.5)WCCH0-080%10.2
12-10UC Riverside (310.5)BWH0-097%22.9
12-13Gonzaga (13.9)WCCH0-037%-3.9
12-20Kentucky (4.2)SECN0-019%-10.5
12-28Alabama (87.6)SECA0-049%-0.5
1-2Colorado (47.7)P12A0-036%-4.5
1-4Utah (31.4)P12A0-029%-6.8
1-8Stanford (36.8)P12H0-057%2.1
1-11California (32.2)P12H0-051%0.4
1-14USC (224.1)P12A0-081%10.4
1-22Oregon St. (158.5)P12A0-061%3.5
1-24Oregon (39.3)P12A0-034%-5.0
1-29Utah (31.4)P12H0-051%0.4
1-31Colorado (47.7)P12H0-059%2.7
2-5Stanford (36.8)P12A0-034%-5.0
2-7California (32.2)P12A0-029%-6.8
2-11Oregon St. (158.5)P12H0-081%10.6
2-14Oregon (39.3)P12H0-057%2.2
2-18Arizona St. (72.2)P12A0-044%-1.7
2-21Arizona (25.1)P12A0-030%-6.2
2-25Washington (98.0)P12H0-073%7.3
3-1Washington St. (220.6)P12H0-092%16.7
3-4USC (224.1)P12H0-093%17.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UCLA's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UCLA's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UCLA.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UCLAP1240.2826.29100.0058.2140.284.32
USCP120.004.3150.0027.710.00-1.92
UtahP120.004.2066.6771.130.001.77
CaliforniaP120.004.1775.0074.140.002.01
OregonP120.004.17100.0071.900.001.82
ColoradoP120.004.16100.0069.620.001.63
Oregon St.P120.004.16100.0051.720.000.14
StanfordP120.004.16100.0069.300.001.61
WashingtonP120.002.65100.0057.540.000.40
Washington St.P120.002.6533.3327.75-0.00-1.18
ArizonaP120.002.65100.0068.940.001.00
Arizona St.P120.002.62100.0058.510.000.45
Cal St. FullertonBW0.001.910.0039.71-0.00-0.39
UC RiversideBW0.001.900.0028.13-0.00-0.83
GonzagaWCC0.001.85100.0087.810.001.40
Long Beach St.BW0.001.8533.3354.05-0.000.15
KentuckySEC0.001.81100.0086.250.001.31
San DiegoWCC0.001.7866.6749.370.00-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.001.78100.0056.060.000.22
OklahomaB120.001.7550.0059.500.000.33
Montana St.BSky16.671.750.0025.64-16.67-0.85
Coastal CarolinaBSth16.671.720.0064.75-16.670.51
Nicholls St.Slnd16.671.720.0036.78-16.67-0.46
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.370.0054.32-0.000.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.3033.3328.03-0.00-0.13
Cal St. NorthridgeBW2.780.3033.3344.98-0.93-0.03
BYUWCC0.000.27100.0069.310.000.11
UC IrvineBW0.000.2750.0062.910.000.07
Cal PolyBW0.000.2750.0038.240.00-0.06
TexasB120.000.24100.0084.130.000.16
PortlandWCC0.000.21100.0050.390.000.00
UC DavisBW0.000.21100.0043.140.00-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.000.18100.0061.810.000.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1850.0047.150.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.18100.0082.150.000.12
AuburnSEC0.000.1866.6742.560.00-0.03
DePaulBE0.000.18100.0037.800.00-0.04
HawaiiBW0.000.1875.0054.690.000.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.18100.0051.000.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.18100.0051.300.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.1866.6746.160.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1866.6757.590.000.03
WyomingMWC0.000.18100.0056.150.000.02
PacificWCC0.000.1550.0029.930.00-0.06
MississippiSEC0.000.1566.6760.220.000.03
KansasB120.000.1550.0060.200.000.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.15100.0061.420.000.03
MissouriSEC0.000.1566.6750.370.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.130.0041.45-0.00-0.02
MichiganB100.000.12100.0066.870.000.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.12100.0070.600.000.05
Oklahoma St.B120.000.12100.0053.870.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.120.0034.27-0.00-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.120.0047.54-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.1250.0046.900.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.12100.0036.560.00-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.000.120.0043.21-0.00-0.02
NevadaMWC0.000.1250.0052.120.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1266.6764.990.000.03
MontanaBSky0.000.120.0049.81-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1250.0055.220.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.100.0020.87-0.00-0.06
New OrleansSlnd0.000.100.0034.37-0.00-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.100.0053.20-0.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.100.0031.91-0.00-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1066.6766.420.000.03
XavierBE0.000.09100.0076.430.000.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.090.0023.71-0.00-0.05
Kansas St.B120.000.0966.6755.230.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0933.3349.79-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.000.09100.0054.240.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.09100.0061.270.000.02
San Jose St.MWC0.000.090.0020.69-0.00-0.05
IdahoBSky0.000.0950.0047.220.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.090.0028.50-0.00-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.000.090.0055.60-0.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.09100.0081.110.000.06
New MexicoMWC0.000.0975.0062.010.000.02
South DakotaSum0.000.090.0036.84-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.090.0037.20-0.00-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.09100.0084.100.000.06
Grand CanyonWAC2.780.0950.0049.560.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.000.090.0055.45-0.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.09100.0048.390.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.090.0033.60-0.00-0.03
SyracuseACC0.000.0975.0070.210.000.03
FloridaSEC0.000.0966.6766.600.000.03
CampbellBSth0.000.070.0030.14-0.00-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.07100.0058.280.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.07100.0058.330.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.070.0041.53-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0750.0041.040.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.070.0045.64-0.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.070.0033.43-0.00-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0750.0049.490.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0750.0021.230.00-0.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.070.0029.61-0.00-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.070.0025.67-0.00-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.070.0067.54-0.000.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.060.0053.38-0.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0055.380.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0650.0045.330.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.06100.0068.940.000.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0062.840.000.02
LipscombASun0.000.060.0041.45-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0015.85-0.00-0.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0650.0055.680.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0650.0031.730.00-0.02
Texas TechB120.000.0650.0043.560.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0068.580.000.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0633.3347.72-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.06100.0069.630.000.02
AkronMAC0.000.0666.6763.580.000.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.060.0062.15-0.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0625.0033.23-0.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.06100.0057.810.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.060.0038.12-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0650.0041.690.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.06100.0075.400.000.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0031.68-0.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.060.0033.61-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0633.3343.51-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0650.0062.440.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0065.630.000.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0633.3349.18-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.06100.0029.380.00-0.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0633.3363.82-0.000.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.06100.0064.330.000.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0650.0044.430.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0650.0066.020.000.02
WoffordSC0.000.0666.6774.980.000.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0079.370.000.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0074.210.000.03
LSUSEC0.000.0666.6756.820.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0044.000.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0666.6754.260.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0040.22-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.060.0032.99-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.060.0027.11-0.00-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.0633.3349.73-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.000.030.0033.17-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0350.0062.510.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0366.6768.330.000.01
North TexasCUSA4.170.03100.0046.324.17-0.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0333.3344.86-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0061.070.000.01
TroySB0.000.030.0046.30-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0350.0041.490.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0350.0056.600.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.03100.0065.850.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0016.72-0.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.030.0041.63-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0055.810.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0325.0022.09-0.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.030.0037.45-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.03100.0045.530.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0052.280.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0333.3363.09-0.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0350.0033.930.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0366.6752.000.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.030.0028.13-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.030.0015.68-0.00-0.02
FIUCUSA0.000.03100.0043.610.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.000.030.0065.36-0.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.030.0032.86-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0333.3347.78-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.000.030.0049.10-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0333.3354.24-0.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.030.0033.70-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0333.3333.43-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0333.3367.72-0.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.03100.0044.620.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0350.0052.770.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0024.22-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0038.27-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0366.6745.850.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.03100.0050.220.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.030.0045.03-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0350.0052.540.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.030.0046.41-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0027.18-0.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.030.0036.43-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0350.0066.890.000.01
LehighPat0.000.030.0035.69-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0350.0054.250.000.00
MarylandB100.000.03100.0063.680.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0333.3357.87-0.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0366.6759.850.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0350.0060.970.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0063.380.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0066.050.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.03100.0062.680.000.01