UCLA

Conference:	P12
Expected RPI:	26.0
Current RPI:	26
Expected SOS:	20
Current SOS:	20
Current Record:	25-9
Expected Record:	25-9
Current Conf Record:	15-6
Expected Conf Record:	15-6
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	10-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	2-0
Current OOC Record:	10-3
Expected OOC Record:	10-3
Expected OOC RPI:	52
Expected OOC SOS:	53

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
25-9	26.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UCLA.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Indiana St. (74.0)	MVC	H	86-59	W	100%
11-13	UC Irvine (125.0)	BW	H	80-79	W	100%
11-15	James Madison (182.0)	CAA	H	100-70	W	100%
11-19	Georgetown (11.0)	BE	N	78-70	L	0%
11-20	Georgia (140.0)	SEC	N	60-56	W	100%
11-25	Cal Poly (164.0)	BW	H	68-70	L	0%
11-28	Cal St. Northridge (254.0)	BW	H	82-56	W	100%
12-1	San Diego St. (30.0)	MWC	N	69-78	L	0%
12-8	Texas (116.0)	B12	N	63-65	W	100%
12-15	Prairie View A&M (315.0)	SWAC	H	95-53	W	100%
12-18	Long Beach St. (115.0)	BW	H	89-70	W	100%
12-22	Fresno St. (135.0)	MWC	H	91-78	W	100%
12-28	Missouri (36.0)	SEC	H	97-94	W	100%
1-3	California (54.0)	P12	H	79-65	W	100%
1-5	Stanford (77.0)	P12	H	68-60	W	100%
1-10	Utah (161.0)	P12	A	53-57	W	100%
1-12	Colorado (38.0)	P12	A	75-78	W	100%
1-17	Oregon St. (181.0)	P12	H	74-64	W	100%
1-19	Oregon (48.0)	P12	H	67-76	L	0%
1-24	Arizona (16.0)	P12	A	73-84	W	100%
1-26	Arizona St. (90.0)	P12	A	78-60	L	0%
1-30	Southern California (118.0)	P12	H	71-75	L	0%
2-7	Washington (88.0)	P12	H	59-57	W	100%
2-9	Washington St. (196.0)	P12	H	76-62	W	100%
2-14	California (54.0)	P12	A	76-63	L	0%
2-16	Stanford (77.0)	P12	A	80-88	W	100%
2-24	Southern California (118.0)	P12	A	59-75	W	100%
2-27	Arizona St. (90.0)	P12	H	79-74	W	100%
3-2	Arizona (16.0)	P12	H	74-69	W	100%
3-6	Washington St. (196.0)	P12	A	73-61	L	0%
3-9	Washington (88.0)	P12	A	54-61	W	100%
3-14	Arizona St. (90.0)	P12	N	80-75	W	100%
3-15	Arizona (16.0)	P12	N	66-64	W	100%
3-16	Oregon (48.0)	P12	N	69-78	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UCLA's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

UCLA's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against UCLA.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
UCLA	P12	26.33	26.33	70.39	70.39	10.74	10.74
Arizona St.	P12	5.15	5.15	66.67	66.67	1.72	1.72
Arizona	P12	5.14	5.14	86.21	86.21	3.72	3.72
Southern California	P12	3.83	3.83	43.33	43.33	-0.51	-0.51
Washington	P12	3.78	3.78	58.06	58.06	0.61	0.61
Washington St.	P12	3.74	3.74	40.00	40.00	-0.75	-0.75
Oregon	P12	3.70	3.70	75.00	75.00	1.85	1.85
Stanford	P12	3.67	3.67	60.00	60.00	0.73	0.73
California	P12	3.62	3.62	65.52	65.52	1.12	1.12
Utah	P12	2.41	2.41	43.33	43.33	-0.32	-0.32
Colorado	P12	2.36	2.36	67.74	67.74	0.84	0.84
Oregon St.	P12	2.22	2.22	45.16	45.16	-0.22	-0.22
Long Beach St.	BW	1.81	1.81	58.62	58.62	0.31	0.31
UC Irvine	BW	1.72	1.72	56.25	56.25	0.21	0.21
Fresno St.	MWC	1.71	1.71	33.33	33.33	-0.57	-0.57
Cal St. Northridge	BW	1.71	1.71	42.86	42.86	-0.24	-0.24
Cal Poly	BW	1.69	1.69	53.57	53.57	0.12	0.12
San Diego St.	MWC	1.66	1.66	65.52	65.52	0.52	0.52
Texas	B12	1.57	1.57	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
Missouri	SEC	1.54	1.54	71.88	71.88	0.67	0.67
Georgia	SEC	1.54	1.54	48.39	48.39	-0.05	-0.05
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	1.52	1.52	40.00	40.00	-0.30	-0.30
Indiana St.	MVC	1.50	1.50	56.67	56.67	0.20	0.20
Georgetown	BE	1.49	1.49	80.00	80.00	0.90	0.90
James Madison	CAA	1.47	1.47	60.61	60.61	0.31	0.31
Pacific	BW	0.32	0.32	62.50	62.50	0.08	0.08
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.31	0.31	40.00	40.00	-0.06	-0.06
UC Riverside	BW	0.27	0.27	14.29	14.29	-0.19	-0.19
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.27	0.27	31.03	31.03	-0.10	-0.10
UC Davis	BW	0.27	0.27	45.16	45.16	-0.03	-0.03
Nevada	MWC	0.24	0.24	36.67	36.67	-0.06	-0.06
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.23	0.23	53.33	53.33	0.02	0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.22	0.22	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.21	0.21	72.73	72.73	0.10	0.10
Texas Tech	B12	0.21	0.21	35.48	35.48	-0.06	-0.06
New Mexico	MWC	0.20	0.20	85.29	85.29	0.14	0.14
Colorado St.	MWC	0.20	0.20	74.19	74.19	0.09	0.09
Creighton	MVC	0.19	0.19	79.41	79.41	0.11	0.11
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.16	0.16	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Texas A&M	SEC	0.16	0.16	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.16	0.16	78.79	78.79	0.09	0.09
Boise St.	MWC	0.15	0.15	65.52	65.52	0.05	0.05
Pepperdine	WCC	0.14	0.14	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.14	0.14	28.12	28.12	-0.06	-0.06
Kansas	B12	0.14	0.14	85.29	85.29	0.10	0.10
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.14	0.14	22.58	22.58	-0.07	-0.07
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.14	0.14	34.38	34.38	-0.04	-0.04
Arkansas	SEC	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.12	0.12	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.12	0.12	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.12	0.12	74.29	74.29	0.06	0.06
Texas Christian	B12	0.12	0.12	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.11	0.11	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Mississippi	SEC	0.11	0.11	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.11	0.11	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Idaho St.	BSky	0.11	0.11	17.24	17.24	-0.07	-0.07
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	WAC	0.09	0.09	70.00	70.00	0.04	0.04
Marquette	BE	0.09	0.09	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.09	0.09	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
Tennessee	SEC	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.09	0.09	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
DePaul	BE	0.09	0.09	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.09	0.09	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.09	0.09	24.14	24.14	-0.05	-0.05
South Carolina	SEC	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.09	0.09	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.09	0.09	20.69	20.69	-0.05	-0.05
Hartford	AE	0.09	0.09	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.09	0.09	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.09	0.09	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.07	0.07	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.07	0.07	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.07	0.07	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Evansville	MVC	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.07	0.07	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
San Francisco	WCC	0.07	0.07	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.07	0.07	0.00	0.00	-0.07	-0.07
Ohio St.	B10	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Baylor	B12	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.07	0.07	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.07	0.07	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.07	0.07	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.07	0.07	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.07	0.07	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.07	0.07	29.63	29.63	-0.03	-0.03
Portland St.	BSky	0.07	0.07	23.08	23.08	-0.04	-0.04
Delaware	CAA	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.03	0.03
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	93.75	93.75	0.04	0.04
Idaho	WAC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.05	35.71	35.71	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.04	0.04	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.04	0.04	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Albany	AE	0.04	0.04	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.04	0.04	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.04	0.04	13.79	13.79	-0.03	-0.03
St. Louis	A10	0.04	0.04	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.04	0.04	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.04	0.04	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.04	0.04	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.04	0.04	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.04	0.04	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.04	0.04	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.04	0.04	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.04	0.04	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.04	0.04	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	81.25	81.25	0.02	0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.02	0.02	85.19	85.19	0.02	0.02
American	Pat	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.02	0.02	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.02	0.02	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Longwood	BSth	0.02	0.02	19.35	19.35	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Navy	Pat	0.02	0.02	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.02	0.02	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Villanova	BE	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.02	0.02	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Mercer	ASun	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	39.29	39.29	-0.00	-0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Purdue	B10	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.02	0.02	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Wofford	SC	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.02	0.02	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.02	0.02	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.02	0.02	28.00	28.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.02	0.02	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	80.00	80.00	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.02	0.02	19.35	19.35	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.02	0.02	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
San Jose St.	WAC	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01