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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


UCLA

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:14.0
Current RPI:14
Expected SOS:14
Current SOS:14
Current Record:26-8
Expected Record:26-8
Current Conf Record:15-6
Expected Conf Record:15-6
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:11-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-1
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:32
Expected OOC SOS:105



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-814.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UCLA.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Drexel (132.0)CAAH72-67W100%0.0
11-12Oakland (181.0)HorzH91-60W100%0.0
11-18Sacramento St. (263.0)BSkyH86-50W100%0.0
11-22Morehead St. (141.0)OVCH81-70W100%0.0
11-24Chattanooga (243.0)SCH106-65W100%0.0
11-28Nevada (137.0)MWCN84-105W100%0.0
11-29Northwestern (123.0)B10N79-95W100%0.0
12-3UC Santa Barbara (107.0)BWH89-76W100%0.0
12-7Missouri (49.0)SECA80-71L0%0.0
12-14Prairie View A&M (304.0)SWACH95-71W100%0.0
12-19Duke (9.0)ACCN63-80L0%0.0
12-22Weber St. (149.0)BSkyH83-60W100%0.0
12-28Alabama (124.0)SECH75-67W100%0.0
1-5USC (176.0)P12H107-73W100%0.0
1-9Arizona (2.0)P12H75-79L0%0.0
1-12Arizona St. (44.0)P12H87-72W100%0.0
1-16Colorado (34.0)P12A56-69W100%0.0
1-18Utah (80.0)P12A74-69L0%0.0
1-23Stanford (41.0)P12H91-74W100%0.0
1-26California (63.0)P12H76-64W100%0.0
1-30Oregon (28.0)P12A68-70W100%0.0
2-2Oregon St. (100.0)P12A71-67L0%0.0
2-8USC (176.0)P12A73-83W100%0.0
2-13Colorado (34.0)P12H92-74W100%0.0
2-15Utah (80.0)P12H80-66W100%0.0
2-19California (63.0)P12A66-86W100%0.0
2-22Stanford (41.0)P12A83-74L0%0.0
2-27Oregon (28.0)P12H83-87L0%0.0
3-2Oregon St. (100.0)P12H74-69W100%0.0
3-6Washington (104.0)P12A82-91W100%0.0
3-8Washington St. (224.0)P12A73-55L0%0.0
3-13Oregon (28.0)P12N82-63W100%0.0
3-14Stanford (41.0)P12N84-59W100%0.0
3-15Arizona (2.0)P12N71-75W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UCLA's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UCLA's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UCLA.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UCLAP1226.3426.3476.0676.0613.7313.73
StanfordP125.105.1066.6766.671.701.70
OregonP125.085.0875.8675.862.632.63
ArizonaP123.863.8690.6290.623.143.14
ColoradoP123.753.7571.8871.881.641.64
USCP123.743.7434.4834.48-1.16-1.16
CaliforniaP123.723.7263.3363.330.990.99
Oregon St.P123.683.6851.7251.720.130.13
UtahP123.653.6564.2964.291.041.04
Arizona St.P122.362.3667.7467.740.840.84
Washington St.P122.342.3427.5927.59-1.05-1.05
WashingtonP122.332.3354.8454.840.230.23
NevadaMWC1.591.5948.3948.39-0.05-0.05
MissouriSEC1.561.5665.6265.620.490.49
AlabamaSEC1.561.5640.0040.00-0.31-0.31
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.561.5670.3770.370.640.64
NorthwesternB101.561.5643.7543.75-0.19-0.19
DrexelCAA1.541.5455.1755.170.160.16
DukeACC1.541.5475.7675.760.790.79
Sacramento St.BSky1.521.5244.4444.44-0.17-0.17
Weber St.BSky1.521.5262.9662.960.390.39
Morehead St.OVC1.521.5260.0060.000.300.30
ChattanoogaSC1.521.5253.5753.570.110.11
OaklandHorz1.521.5236.6736.67-0.40-0.40
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.471.4731.2531.25-0.55-0.55
Cal PolyBW0.280.2836.6736.67-0.07-0.07
UC IrvineBW0.240.2465.6265.620.070.07
BYUWCC0.230.2366.6766.670.080.08
North DakotaBSky0.230.2348.3948.39-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.220.2224.1424.14-0.11-0.11
Long Beach St.BW0.210.2143.3343.33-0.03-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.200.2033.3333.33-0.07-0.07
Northern ArizonaBSky0.200.2045.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
MichiganB100.150.1575.7675.760.080.08
Northern ColoradoBSky0.150.1555.1755.170.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.150.153.573.57-0.14-0.14
Fresno St.MWC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
UNLVMWC0.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
GeorgiaSEC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.1420.6920.69-0.08-0.08
Texas SouthernSWAC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.130.1353.5753.570.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
HawaiiBW0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ElonSC0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
IllinoisB100.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
DenverSum0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.100.1025.9325.93-0.05-0.05
TowsonCAA0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
XavierBE0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
DePaulBE0.090.0936.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.090.0994.1294.120.080.08
TennesseeSEC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
PacificWCC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
IndianaB100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
Michigan St.B100.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Texas TechB120.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Air ForceMWC0.090.0935.7135.71-0.03-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0987.1087.100.070.07
SyracuseACC0.090.0984.3884.380.060.06
WyomingMWC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
PittsburghACC0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0746.1546.15-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.070.0710.7110.71-0.06-0.06
NortheasternCAA0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
DavidsonSC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
BelmontOVC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.070.0710.3410.34-0.06-0.06
AuburnSEC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UICHorz0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
LSUSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
PurdueB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MarylandACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
CreightonBE0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
GeorgetownBE0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0714.8114.81-0.05-0.05
North CarolinaACC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
WisconsinB100.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
HoustonAmer0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
IowaB100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
KansasB120.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
UTEPCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
DelawareCAA0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
AkronMAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
HowardMEAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Miami FLACC0.040.0451.5251.520.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.040.0457.1457.140.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.040.0432.1432.14-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
NebraskaB100.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.040.0456.6756.670.010.01
BaylorB120.040.0466.6766.670.010.01
ClemsonACC0.040.0462.5062.500.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.040.0431.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.040.0448.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.040.0486.2186.210.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.040.0463.6463.640.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.040.0482.3582.350.030.03
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01
ButlerBE0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
IdahoWAC0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
RutgersAmer0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
North FloridaASun0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
OklahomaB120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
South DakotaSum0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.020.02100.00100.000.020.02
BradleyMVC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
IonaMAAC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
MarquetteBE0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
TulaneCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UMBCAE0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.020.0251.8551.850.000.00
Ohio St.B100.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Penn St.B100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0230.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Notre DameACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01