UCLA

Conference:	P12
Expected RPI:	117.0
Current RPI:	117
Expected SOS:	104
Current SOS:	104
Current Record:	18-14
Expected Record:	18-14
Current Conf Record:	12-8
Expected Conf Record:	12-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-0
Current OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC RPI:	174
Expected OOC SOS:	104

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
18-14	117.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UCLA.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Loyola Marymount (118.0)	WCC	H	58-69	L	0%
11-15	Middle Tennessee (56.0)	SB	H	66-86	L	0%
11-22	Kansas (6.0)	B12	N	72-56	L	0%
11-23	Michigan (14.0)	B10	N	79-63	L	0%
11-28	Pepperdine (271.0)	WCC	H	62-39	W	100%
12-3	Texas (50.0)	B12	H	59-69	L	0%
12-10	Pennsylvania (98.0)	Ivy	N	77-73	W	100%
12-14	Eastern Washington (209.0)	BSky	H	60-47	W	100%
12-17	UC Davis (338.0)	BW	N	82-39	W	100%
12-20	UC Irvine (254.0)	BW	H	89-60	W	100%
12-23	Richmond (127.0)	A10	H	71-63	W	100%
12-29	Stanford (97.0)	P12	A	60-59	L	0%
12-31	California (37.0)	P12	A	85-69	L	0%
1-5	Arizona (79.0)	P12	N	65-58	W	100%
1-7	Arizona St. (252.0)	P12	N	75-58	W	100%
1-15	Southern California (270.0)	P12	A	47-66	W	100%
1-19	Oregon St. (135.0)	P12	A	87-84	L	0%
1-21	Oregon (67.0)	P12	A	75-68	L	0%
1-26	Utah (274.0)	P12	H	76-49	W	100%
1-28	Colorado (62.0)	P12	H	77-60	W	100%
2-2	Washington (71.0)	P12	A	71-69	L	0%
2-4	Washington St. (175.0)	P12	A	60-63	W	100%
2-9	Stanford (97.0)	P12	H	72-61	W	100%
2-11	California (37.0)	P12	H	63-73	L	0%
2-15	Southern California (270.0)	P12	H	64-54	W	100%
2-18	St. John's (159.0)	BE	A	66-63	L	0%
2-23	Arizona St. (252.0)	P12	A	57-66	W	100%
2-25	Arizona (79.0)	P12	A	65-63	L	0%
3-1	Washington St. (175.0)	P12	H	78-46	W	100%
3-3	Washington (71.0)	P12	H	75-69	W	100%
3-7	Southern California (270.0)	P12	N	55-40	W	100%
3-8	Arizona (79.0)	P12	N	58-66	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UCLA's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

UCLA's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against UCLA.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
UCLA	P12	26.33	26.33	54.29	54.29	2.26	2.26
Arizona	P12	5.46	5.46	67.74	67.74	1.94	1.94
Southern California	P12	5.45	5.45	20.69	20.69	-3.19	-3.19
Arizona St.	P12	3.94	3.94	34.48	34.48	-1.22	-1.22
Washington St.	P12	3.94	3.94	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P12	3.91	3.91	66.67	66.67	1.30	1.30
California	P12	3.89	3.89	70.97	70.97	1.63	1.63
Washington	P12	3.88	3.88	68.97	68.97	1.47	1.47
Oregon St.	P12	2.50	2.50	54.84	54.84	0.24	0.24
Colorado	P12	2.49	2.49	67.74	67.74	0.88	0.88
Oregon	P12	2.35	2.35	70.00	70.00	0.94	0.94
Utah	P12	2.34	2.34	17.24	17.24	-1.53	-1.53
Pepperdine	WCC	1.72	1.72	33.33	33.33	-0.57	-0.57
Eastern Washington	BSky	1.69	1.69	44.83	44.83	-0.18	-0.18
UC Davis	BW	1.69	1.69	13.79	13.79	-1.22	-1.22
UC Irvine	BW	1.69	1.69	35.71	35.71	-0.48	-0.48
Kansas	B12	1.68	1.68	81.25	81.25	1.05	1.05
Loyola Marymount	WCC	1.64	1.64	57.14	57.14	0.23	0.23
Texas	B12	1.63	1.63	59.38	59.38	0.31	0.31
St. John's	BE	1.63	1.63	38.71	38.71	-0.37	-0.37
Middle Tennessee	SB	1.59	1.59	79.31	79.31	0.93	0.93
Michigan	B10	1.56	1.56	70.97	70.97	0.66	0.66
Pennsylvania	Ivy	1.56	1.56	63.33	63.33	0.42	0.42
Richmond	A10	1.56	1.56	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.26	0.26	19.23	19.23	-0.16	-0.16
Gonzaga	WCC	0.26	0.26	80.65	80.65	0.16	0.16
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.25	0.25	11.11	11.11	-0.20	-0.20
Portland	WCC	0.24	0.24	20.00	20.00	-0.14	-0.14
UC Riverside	BW	0.23	0.23	41.38	41.38	-0.04	-0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.22	0.22	77.42	77.42	0.12	0.12
San Diego	WCC	0.21	0.21	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Seattle	ind	0.21	0.21	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.20	0.20	64.29	64.29	0.06	0.06
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.18	0.18	67.86	67.86	0.07	0.07
Long Beach St.	BW	0.18	0.18	74.19	74.19	0.09	0.09
Cal Poly	BW	0.18	0.18	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.18	0.18	81.25	81.25	0.11	0.11
Fresno St.	WAC	0.17	0.17	35.48	35.48	-0.05	-0.05
Missouri	B12	0.17	0.17	88.24	88.24	0.13	0.13
Santa Clara	WCC	0.16	0.16	21.43	21.43	-0.09	-0.09
Brigham Young	WCC	0.16	0.16	74.19	74.19	0.08	0.08
Idaho St.	BSky	0.16	0.16	27.59	27.59	-0.07	-0.07
Montana St.	BSky	0.16	0.16	37.04	37.04	-0.04	-0.04
Pacific	BW	0.15	0.15	32.14	32.14	-0.06	-0.06
Weber St.	BSky	0.15	0.15	78.57	78.57	0.09	0.09
Duke	ACC	0.15	0.15	81.82	81.82	0.09	0.09
Oklahoma	B12	0.15	0.15	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.15	0.15	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.14	0.14	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.14	0.14	68.75	68.75	0.05	0.05
Texas A&M	B12	0.14	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.14	0.14	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.14	0.14	83.33	83.33	0.09	0.09
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.13	0.13	30.77	30.77	-0.05	-0.05
Idaho	WAC	0.13	0.13	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.13	0.13	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Nebraska	B10	0.12	0.12	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.12	0.12	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.12	0.12	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
Baylor	B12	0.12	0.12	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Harvard	Ivy	0.10	0.10	86.21	86.21	0.07	0.07
Montana	BSky	0.10	0.10	79.31	79.31	0.06	0.06
St. Louis	A10	0.10	0.10	77.42	77.42	0.06	0.06
Portland St.	BSky	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Nevada	WAC	0.10	0.10	80.00	80.00	0.06	0.06
San Jose St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Austin Peay	OVC	0.10	0.10	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
DePaul	BE	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.10	0.10	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
George Washington	A10	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Valparaiso	Horz	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Bryant	NEC	0.09	0.09	6.67	6.67	-0.08	-0.08
Kansas St.	B12	0.09	0.09	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Texas Tech	B12	0.09	0.09	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Duquesne	A10	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Oakland	Sum	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Hawaii	WAC	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.08	0.08	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.08	0.08	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
North Texas	SB	0.08	0.08	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Marquette	BE	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Wake Forest	ACC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.07	0.07	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.07	0.07	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Denver	SB	0.07	0.07	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Davidson	SC	0.07	0.07	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Temple	A10	0.07	0.07	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Colorado St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.07	0.07	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Syracuse	BE	0.07	0.07	93.94	93.94	0.06	0.06
Texas Christian	MWC	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.07	0.07	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.07	0.07	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Towson	CAA	0.07	0.07	3.12	3.12	-0.07	-0.07
Ball St.	MAC	0.07	0.07	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.07	0.07	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	ASun	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Florida International	SB	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.05	30.77	30.77	-0.02	-0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Southern Utah	Sum	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.05	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
NC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.05	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.05	25.93	25.93	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.05	65.38	65.38	0.02	0.02
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.03	-0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	94.12	94.12	0.04	0.04
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.00	28.00	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	6.90	6.90	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.02	0.02	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.02	0.02	19.23	19.23	-0.02	-0.02
American	Pat	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.02	0.02	21.88	21.88	-0.01	-0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.02	0.02	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.02	0.02	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.02	0.02	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.02	0.02	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.02	0.02	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Memphis	CUSA	0.02	0.02	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.02	0.02	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	BE	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Western Illinois	Sum	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	83.87	83.87	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.02	0.02	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.02	0.02	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Boston University	AE	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.02	0.02	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
North Dakota	GWC	0.02	0.02	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.02	0.02	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.02	0.02	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	34.62	34.62	-0.01	-0.01