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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


UCLA

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:16.0
Current RPI:16
Expected SOS:79
Current SOS:79
Current Record:29-4
Expected Record:29-4
Current Conf Record:16-4
Expected Conf Record:16-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-0
Current OOC Record:13-0
Expected OOC Record:13-0
Expected OOC RPI:28
Expected OOC SOS:257



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-416.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UCLA.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Pacific (223.0)WCCH119-80W100%0.0
11-13Cal St. Northridge (312.0)BWH102-87W100%0.0
11-17San Diego (205.0)WCCH88-68W100%0.0
11-20Long Beach St. (214.0)BWH114-77W100%0.0
11-24Portland (233.0)WCCN99-77W100%0.0
11-25Nebraska (107.0)B10N82-71W100%0.0
11-27Texas A&M (92.0)SECN74-67W100%0.0
11-30UC Riverside (330.0)BWH98-56W100%0.0
12-3Kentucky (3.0)SECA92-97W100%0.0
12-10Michigan (25.0)B10H102-84W100%0.0
12-14UC Santa Barbara (324.0)BWH102-62W100%0.0
12-17Ohio St. (90.0)B10N86-73W100%0.0
12-21Western Michigan (173.0)MACH82-68W100%0.0
12-28Oregon (9.0)P12A89-87L0%0.0
12-30Oregon St. (280.0)P12A63-76W100%0.0
1-5California (53.0)P12H81-71W100%0.0
1-8Stanford (100.0)P12H89-75W100%0.0
1-12Colorado (99.0)P12A89-104W100%0.0
1-14Utah (83.0)P12A82-83W100%0.0
1-19Arizona St. (125.0)P12H102-80W100%0.0
1-21Arizona (2.0)P12H85-96L0%0.0
1-25USC (40.0)P12A84-76L0%0.0
2-1Washington St. (159.0)P12A79-95W100%0.0
2-4Washington (211.0)P12A66-107W100%0.0
2-9Oregon (9.0)P12H82-79W100%0.0
2-12Oregon St. (280.0)P12H78-60W100%0.0
2-18USC (40.0)P12H102-70W100%0.0
2-23Arizona St. (125.0)P12A75-87W100%0.0
2-25Arizona (2.0)P12A72-77W100%0.0
3-1Washington (211.0)P12H98-66W100%0.0
3-4Washington St. (159.0)P12H77-68W100%0.0
3-9USC (40.0)P12N76-74W100%0.0
3-10Arizona (2.0)P12N86-75L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UCLA's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UCLA's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UCLA.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UCLAP1226.3126.3187.7687.7619.8619.86
USCP125.385.3876.6776.672.872.87
ArizonaP125.315.3190.3290.324.284.28
WashingtonP123.853.8531.0331.03-1.46-1.46
Arizona St.P123.833.8348.3948.39-0.12-0.12
OregonP123.813.8187.1087.102.832.83
Washington St.P123.763.7642.8642.86-0.54-0.54
Oregon St.P123.743.7413.7913.79-2.71-2.71
ColoradoP122.382.3858.0658.060.380.38
CaliforniaP122.372.3765.6265.620.740.74
StanfordP122.322.3244.8344.83-0.24-0.24
UtahP122.282.2864.2964.290.650.65
Long Beach St.BW1.781.7841.9441.94-0.29-0.29
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.771.7719.2319.23-1.09-1.09
PortlandWCC1.771.7730.0030.00-0.71-0.71
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.751.7537.0437.04-0.45-0.45
San DiegoWCC1.731.7341.3841.38-0.30-0.30
UC RiversideBW1.721.7223.0823.08-0.93-0.93
Texas A&MSEC1.721.7253.3353.330.110.11
PacificWCC1.611.6132.2632.26-0.57-0.57
KentuckySEC1.611.6187.8887.881.221.22
NebraskaB101.611.6137.9337.93-0.39-0.39
MichiganB101.591.5970.5970.590.650.65
Ohio St.B101.591.5954.8454.840.150.15
Western MichiganMAC1.561.5650.0050.000.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.380.3857.5857.580.060.06
Cal St. FullertonBW0.360.3651.7251.720.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.330.3331.0331.03-0.13-0.13
Santa ClaraWCC0.290.2950.0050.000.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.290.2996.9796.970.270.27
HawaiiBW0.260.2644.8344.83-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.260.2626.6726.67-0.12-0.12
BYUWCC0.240.2466.6766.670.080.08
UC DavisBW0.240.2462.5062.500.060.06
Michigan St.B100.230.2357.5857.580.030.03
San FranciscoWCC0.200.2061.2961.290.050.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.200.2087.5087.500.150.15
MontanaBSky0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.170.1748.2848.28-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.150.1582.3582.350.100.10
SMUAmer0.140.1488.2488.240.110.11
PurdueB100.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
MissouriSEC0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
WisconsinB100.140.1473.5373.530.060.06
Sacramento St.BSky0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.120.1267.8667.860.040.04
CreightonBE0.120.1272.7372.730.060.06
UNLVMWC0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.120.1260.7160.710.030.03
Fresno St.MWC0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1255.8855.880.010.01
MinnesotaB100.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
WyomingMWC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.100.1037.0437.04-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
KansasB120.100.1087.5087.500.070.07
IowaB100.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
NorthwesternB100.100.1067.6567.650.030.03
Penn St.B100.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0968.9768.970.040.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0983.3383.330.060.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0940.7440.74-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.090.0974.1974.190.050.05
RutgersB100.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
ButlerBE0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
IndianaB100.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
LSUSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.070.0775.0075.000.030.03
TexasB120.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
TroySB0.070.0758.8258.820.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0767.6567.650.020.02
DenverSum0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
DaytonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
South DakotaSum0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TulsaAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
ArmyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
DavidsonA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0361.5461.540.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.026.906.90-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0236.0036.00-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.020.0291.1891.180.020.02
West VirginiaB120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
Green BayHorz0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.023.333.33-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
Notre DameACC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
WoffordSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.020.0278.5778.570.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
DuquesneA100.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
FurmanSC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
HowardMEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.020.0261.2961.290.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00