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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


UCLA

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:36.0
Current RPI:36
Expected SOS:48
Current SOS:48
Current Record:21-11
Expected Record:21-11
Current Conf Record:12-8
Expected Conf Record:12-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:42
Expected OOC SOS:62



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1136.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UCLA.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Georgia Tech (161.0)ACCN63-60W100%0.0
11-15Central Arkansas (223.0)SlndH106-101W100%0.0
11-17South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACH96-68W100%0.0
11-20Creighton (44.0)BEN100-89L0%0.0
11-21Wisconsin (114.0)B10N70-72W100%0.0
11-26UC Irvine (119.0)BWH87-63W100%0.0
11-29Cal St. Bakersfield (220.0)WACH75-66W100%0.0
12-3Detroit (318.0)HorzH106-73W100%0.0
12-9Michigan (12.0)B10A78-69L0%0.0
12-16Cincinnati (6.0)AmerH63-77L0%0.0
12-19South Dakota (91.0)SumH85-82W100%0.0
12-23Kentucky (10.0)SECN75-83W100%0.0
12-29Washington St. (179.0)P12H96-82W100%0.0
12-31Washington (71.0)P12H74-53W100%0.0
1-4Stanford (86.0)P12A107-99L0%0.0
1-6California (216.0)P12A84-107W100%0.0
1-11Utah (59.0)P12H83-64W100%0.0
1-13Colorado (82.0)P12H59-68L0%0.0
1-18Oregon St. (137.0)P12A69-63L0%0.0
1-20Oregon (72.0)P12A94-91L0%0.0
1-25California (216.0)P12H70-57W100%0.0
1-27Stanford (86.0)P12H89-73W100%0.0
2-3USC (34.0)P12H82-79W100%0.0
2-8Arizona (13.0)P12A74-82W100%0.0
2-10Arizona St. (66.0)P12A88-79L0%0.0
2-15Oregon St. (137.0)P12H75-68W100%0.0
2-17Oregon (72.0)P12H86-78W100%0.0
2-22Utah (59.0)P12A84-78L0%0.0
2-25Colorado (82.0)P12A80-76L0%0.0
3-3USC (34.0)P12A72-83W100%0.0
3-8Stanford (86.0)P12N88-77W100%0.0
3-9Arizona (13.0)P12N78-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UCLA's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UCLA's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UCLA.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UCLAP1226.2626.2664.8464.847.807.80
StanfordP125.375.3756.6756.670.720.72
ArizonaP124.034.0381.2581.252.522.52
USCP124.024.0271.8871.881.761.76
OregonP123.933.9365.6265.621.231.23
CaliforniaP123.893.8927.5927.59-1.74-1.74
ColoradoP123.853.8550.0050.000.000.00
Oregon St.P123.843.8450.0050.000.000.00
UtahP123.823.8264.2964.291.091.09
Arizona St.P122.462.4663.3363.330.660.66
WashingtonP122.412.4164.5264.520.700.70
Washington St.P122.412.4140.0040.00-0.48-0.48
Central ArkansasSlnd1.681.6851.6151.610.050.05
MichiganB101.611.6178.7978.790.930.93
WisconsinB101.611.6146.8846.88-0.10-0.10
South Carolina St.MEAC1.611.6127.5927.59-0.72-0.72
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.611.6134.6234.62-0.49-0.49
UC IrvineBW1.591.5950.0050.000.000.00
DetroitHorz1.591.5920.6920.69-0.93-0.93
CincinnatiAmer1.561.5687.8887.881.181.18
CreightonBE1.561.5663.3363.330.420.42
Georgia TechACC1.561.5641.9441.94-0.25-0.25
KentuckySEC1.561.5672.7372.730.710.71
South DakotaSum1.561.5675.8675.860.810.81
Long Beach St.BW0.260.2641.9441.94-0.04-0.04
DenverSum0.220.2246.4346.43-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.180.1856.6756.670.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
XavierBE0.170.1784.8584.850.120.12
Cal PolyBW0.170.1724.1424.14-0.09-0.09
Cal St. FullertonBW0.170.1762.0762.070.040.04
Portland St.BSky0.170.1756.6756.670.020.02
PurdueB100.160.1682.3582.350.100.10
SMUAmer0.160.1651.5251.520.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.150.1580.0080.000.090.09
Northern ArizonaBSky0.150.1513.3313.33-0.11-0.11
Coppin St.MEAC0.150.1515.6215.62-0.10-0.10
North Dakota St.Sum0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.140.1479.4179.410.080.08
NorthwesternB100.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.140.1442.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.140.1475.0075.000.070.07
FloridaSEC0.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.140.1443.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.130.1383.3383.330.090.09
St. John'sBE0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.120.1253.5753.570.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
San FranciscoWCC0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
MontanaBSky0.120.1277.4277.420.070.07
NebraskaB100.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.120.1271.4371.430.050.05
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.120.1287.8887.880.090.09
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.120.1270.0070.000.050.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.110.1165.5265.520.030.03
IdahoBSky0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
ButlerBE0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Green BayHorz0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Fort WayneSum0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.108.008.00-0.08-0.08
San Diego St.MWC0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
YaleIvy0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.1084.8584.850.070.07
MissouriSEC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.100.1014.2914.29-0.07-0.07
UC DavisBW0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
DePaulBE0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.Amer0.100.1078.1278.120.050.05
PacificWCC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
MarylandB100.090.0958.0658.060.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.090.0955.8855.880.010.01
OklahomaB120.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
UMKCWAC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.080.083.333.33-0.08-0.08
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
LamarSlnd0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
IUPUIHorz0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0832.3532.35-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
MississippiSEC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
DrakeMVC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Saint LouisA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
WoffordSC0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Kansas St.B120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
MarquetteBE0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
VCUA100.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
BaylorB120.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0780.0080.000.040.04
VirginiaACC0.070.0793.9493.940.060.06
UCFAmer0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
IllinoisB100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
MemphisAmer0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
BYUWCC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0512.5012.50-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
MaristMAAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
MercerSC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
LehighPat0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
LSUSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0576.6776.670.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
DelawareCAA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.036.676.67-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0382.7682.760.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0212.5012.50-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0232.0032.00-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0230.7730.77-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.029.689.68-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
TroySB0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
West VirginiaB120.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01