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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


UCLA

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:48.0
Current RPI:48
Expected SOS:29
Current SOS:29
Current Record:20-13
Expected Record:20-13
Current Conf Record:12-8
Expected Conf Record:12-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:110
Expected OOC SOS:49



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1348.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UCLA.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Montana St. (325.0)BSkyH113-78W100%0.0
11-16Coastal Carolina (124.0)BSthH84-71W100%0.0
11-20Nicholls St. (321.0)SlndH107-74W100%0.0
11-23Long Beach St. (111.0)BWH77-63W100%0.0
11-26Oklahoma (18.0)B12N75-65L0%0.0
11-27North Carolina (11.0)ACCN56-78L0%0.0
11-28UAB (130.0)CUSAN76-88W100%0.0
12-3Cal St. Fullerton (314.0)BWH73-45W100%0.0
12-7San Diego (157.0)WCCH75-68W100%0.0
12-10UC Riverside (234.0)BWH77-66W100%0.0
12-13Gonzaga (8.0)WCCH74-87L0%0.0
12-20Kentucky (1.0)SECN83-44L0%0.0
12-28Alabama (85.0)SECA56-50L0%0.0
1-2Colorado (116.0)P12A62-56L0%0.0
1-4Utah (20.0)P12A71-39L0%0.0
1-8Stanford (59.0)P12H86-81W100%0.0
1-11California (95.0)P12H73-54W100%0.0
1-14USC (207.0)P12A66-83W100%0.0
1-22Oregon St. (133.0)P12A66-55L0%0.0
1-24Oregon (27.0)P12A82-64L0%0.0
1-29Utah (20.0)P12H69-59W100%0.0
1-31Colorado (116.0)P12H72-59W100%0.0
2-5Stanford (59.0)P12A67-69W100%0.0
2-7California (95.0)P12A64-62L0%0.0
2-11Oregon St. (133.0)P12H75-59W100%0.0
2-14Oregon (27.0)P12H72-63W100%0.0
2-18Arizona St. (102.0)P12A68-66L0%0.0
2-21Arizona (5.0)P12A57-47L0%0.0
2-25Washington (126.0)P12H88-66W100%0.0
3-1Washington St. (169.0)P12H72-67W100%0.0
3-4USC (207.0)P12H85-74W100%0.0
3-12USC (207.0)P12N96-70W100%0.0
3-13Arizona (5.0)P12N70-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UCLA's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UCLA's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UCLA.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UCLAP1226.2726.2758.5458.544.484.48
USCP125.285.2841.3841.38-0.91-0.91
ArizonaP123.883.8890.6290.623.163.16
OregonP123.843.8474.1974.191.861.86
UtahP123.813.8175.8675.861.971.97
ColoradoP123.793.7946.6746.67-0.25-0.25
StanfordP123.763.7663.3363.331.001.00
CaliforniaP123.763.7654.8454.840.360.36
Oregon St.P123.743.7453.5753.570.270.27
Arizona St.P122.392.3951.6151.610.080.08
WashingtonP122.372.3753.3353.330.160.16
Washington St.P122.342.3443.3343.33-0.31-0.31
Cal St. FullertonBW1.691.6925.0025.00-0.84-0.84
UC RiversideBW1.671.6742.8642.86-0.24-0.24
Long Beach St.BW1.641.6446.6746.67-0.11-0.11
GonzagaWCC1.631.6393.7593.751.431.43
KentuckySEC1.611.61100.00100.001.611.61
AlabamaSEC1.581.5853.3353.330.110.11
San DiegoWCC1.561.5648.2848.28-0.05-0.05
North CarolinaACC1.561.5667.6567.650.550.55
OklahomaB121.541.5467.7467.740.550.55
Montana St.BSky1.541.5421.4321.43-0.88-0.88
UABCUSA1.541.5456.2556.250.190.19
Coastal CarolinaBSth1.521.5271.4371.430.650.65
Nicholls St.Slnd1.521.5228.0028.00-0.67-0.67
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.300.3056.6756.670.040.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.270.2722.5822.58-0.15-0.15
UC IrvineBW0.270.2761.2961.290.060.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.260.2623.3323.33-0.14-0.14
BYUWCC0.240.2471.8871.880.110.11
HawaiiBW0.230.2360.6160.610.050.05
Cal PolyBW0.220.2240.7440.74-0.04-0.04
AuburnSEC0.220.2241.1841.18-0.04-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.190.1956.6756.670.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.190.1975.7675.760.100.10
TexasB120.190.1960.6160.610.040.04
UC DavisBW0.180.1879.3179.310.100.10
PortlandWCC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.170.1748.1548.15-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.170.1741.9441.94-0.03-0.03
UNLVMWC0.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
FloridaSEC0.160.1648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
WyomingMWC0.150.1571.8871.880.060.06
DePaulBE0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
MissouriSEC0.140.1425.8125.81-0.07-0.07
Gardner WebbBSth0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
WisconsinB100.120.1291.1891.180.100.10
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
PacificWCC0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
MichiganB100.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
KansasB120.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
DrexelCAA0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
Kansas St.B120.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.110.1130.7730.77-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.110.1175.0075.000.060.06
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Sacramento St.BSky0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
Northern ColoradoBSky0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
MontanaBSky0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
RiceCUSA0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
Iowa St.B120.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
SyracuseACC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
DukeACC0.090.0987.8887.880.070.07
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0855.5655.560.010.01
IdahoBSky0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.070.070.000.00-0.07-0.07
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.070.000.00-0.07-0.07
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
South DakotaSum0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0787.1087.100.050.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
AkronMAC0.070.0758.8258.820.010.01
ArmyPat0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.070.0752.9452.940.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
VermontAE0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
DetroitHorz0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0752.9452.940.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0658.3358.330.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0586.6786.670.040.04
CampbellBSth0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
High PointBSth0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
LibertyBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
WinthropBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0518.7518.75-0.03-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0562.9662.960.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
LipscombASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
WoffordSC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
VCUA100.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
OaklandHorz0.040.0446.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.040.0460.6160.610.010.01
Notre DameACC0.040.0485.2985.290.030.03
VirginiaACC0.040.0490.6290.620.040.04
LamarSlnd0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
TroySB0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
TowsonCAA0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.020.0274.0774.070.010.01
LehighPat0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
MarquetteBE0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
TulsaAmer0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0244.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0260.7160.710.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
DavidsonA100.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0238.7138.71-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
IowaB100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0275.8675.860.010.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
PittsburghACC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00