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Through games of Nov 27, 2014.


UCLA

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:74.9
Current RPI:182
Expected SOS:40
Current SOS:216
Current Record:4-2
Expected Record:18-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:4-2
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:92
Expected OOC SOS:46



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-49.00.01%
25-510.00.01%
24-615.10.09%
23-717.30.54%
22-824.41.86%
21-932.44.83%
20-1042.09.20%
19-1153.015.40%
18-1265.817.72%
17-1379.818.60%
16-1494.214.74%
15-15109.59.71%
14-16124.44.52%
13-17142.01.97%
12-18156.90.60%
11-19175.80.13%
10-20197.40.05%
9-21219.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UCLA.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Montana St. (313.5)BSkyH113-78W100%0.0
11-16Coastal Carolina (157.0)BSthH84-71W100%0.0
11-20Nicholls St. (293.7)SlndH107-74W100%0.0
11-23Long Beach St. (74.9)BWH77-63W100%0.0
11-26Oklahoma (21.5)B12N75-65L0%0.0
11-27North Carolina (10.0)ACCN56-78L0%0.0
12-3Cal St. Fullerton (260.8)BWH0-094%18.2
12-7San Diego (115.3)WCCH0-076%8.6
12-10UC Riverside (313.5)BWH0-097%23.2
12-13Gonzaga (16.4)WCCH0-033%-5.3
12-20Kentucky (3.6)SECN0-014%-13.1
12-28Alabama (69.6)SECA0-044%-1.8
1-2Colorado (84.2)P12A0-042%-2.3
1-4Utah (28.1)P12A0-024%-8.6
1-8Stanford (36.9)P12H0-049%-0.2
1-11California (50.3)P12H0-054%1.1
1-14USC (224.2)P12A0-078%9.1
1-22Oregon St. (212.7)P12A0-067%5.3
1-24Oregon (72.4)P12A0-038%-3.6
1-29Utah (28.1)P12H0-045%-1.4
1-31Colorado (84.2)P12H0-066%4.9
2-5Stanford (36.9)P12A0-027%-7.4
2-7California (50.3)P12A0-031%-6.1
2-11Oregon St. (212.7)P12H0-085%12.4
2-14Oregon (72.4)P12H0-062%3.6
2-18Arizona St. (106.1)P12A0-046%-1.2
2-21Arizona (19.0)P12A0-025%-8.1
2-25Washington (98.1)P12H0-071%6.5
3-1Washington St. (251.2)P12H0-094%18.5
3-4USC (224.2)P12H0-091%16.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UCLA's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UCLA's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UCLA.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UCLAP1231.3226.2654.5554.352.852.29
USCP120.004.1550.0030.760.00-1.60
UtahP120.004.0475.0074.300.001.96
OregonP120.004.0160.0064.240.001.14
CaliforniaP120.004.0180.0071.430.001.72
StanfordP120.004.0180.0072.000.001.76
Oregon St.P120.004.0150.0044.140.00-0.47
ColoradoP120.004.0175.0061.630.000.93
ArizonaP120.002.54100.0076.260.001.34
WashingtonP120.002.54100.0058.990.000.46
Washington St.P120.002.5425.0023.27-0.00-1.36
Arizona St.P120.002.5460.0053.380.000.17
Cal St. FullertonBW0.001.8440.0039.02-0.00-0.40
UC RiversideBW0.001.840.0024.62-0.00-0.93
GonzagaWCC0.001.79100.0089.370.001.41
Long Beach St.BW8.331.7850.0056.570.000.23
KentuckySEC1.041.78100.0089.581.041.41
AlabamaSEC0.001.7580.0058.630.000.30
San DiegoWCC0.001.7260.0051.260.000.04
OklahomaB128.331.7075.0069.494.170.66
Montana St.BSky8.331.690.0021.25-8.33-0.97
North CarolinaACC8.331.6975.0073.204.170.79
Coastal CarolinaBSth8.331.6750.0065.690.000.52
Nicholls St.Slnd8.331.670.0031.86-8.33-0.60
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.3533.3364.43-0.000.10
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.040.2933.3337.74-0.35-0.07
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.2950.0025.280.00-0.14
BYUWCC0.830.2650.0067.630.000.09
Cal PolyBW0.000.2633.3334.34-0.00-0.08
UC IrvineBW0.000.2633.3366.19-0.000.08
AuburnSEC0.000.2360.0037.710.00-0.06
TexasB120.000.22100.0079.050.000.13
UC DavisBW0.000.21100.0052.620.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.21100.0051.100.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.2083.3384.390.000.14
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1850.0059.430.000.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1825.0037.88-0.00-0.04
HawaiiBW0.000.1871.4356.020.000.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.1766.6754.980.000.02
DePaulBE0.000.1766.6725.500.00-0.08
WyomingMWC0.000.17100.0069.490.000.07
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1760.0056.890.000.02
Portland St.BSky0.000.17100.0057.180.000.02
UNLVMWC0.000.1775.0051.700.000.01
PacificWCC0.000.1533.3332.18-0.00-0.05
MississippiSEC0.000.1475.0053.040.000.01
KansasB120.000.1475.0062.620.000.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1480.0074.820.000.07
MissouriSEC0.000.1440.0036.39-0.00-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.830.1220.0035.95-0.50-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.12100.0071.260.000.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.120.0051.90-0.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.1250.0045.170.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.1275.0066.060.000.04
DrexelCAA0.000.1220.0036.57-0.00-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.000.1133.3351.25-0.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.11100.0060.400.000.02
Kansas St.B120.830.1150.0046.120.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.1125.0043.15-0.00-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.11100.0078.390.000.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.11100.0045.140.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.1180.0067.950.000.04
MontanaBSky0.000.1133.3351.33-0.000.00
DukeACC0.000.11100.0083.320.000.07
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1150.0052.250.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1175.0068.660.000.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.100.0022.17-0.00-0.05
New OrleansSlnd0.000.100.0035.74-0.00-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.830.100.0050.53-0.830.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.090.0036.81-0.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0940.0058.41-0.000.02
XavierBE0.830.09100.0078.730.830.05
San Jose St.MWC0.000.090.0017.77-0.00-0.06
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.090.0020.98-0.00-0.05
IdahoBSky0.000.0933.3348.86-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.090.0023.57-0.00-0.05
TCUB120.000.09100.0058.380.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.09100.0087.590.000.07
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0940.0038.51-0.00-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.0925.0052.78-0.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC1.040.0940.0046.34-0.21-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0975.0061.130.000.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.09100.0083.180.000.06
South DakotaSum0.000.080.0038.79-0.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0860.0056.430.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0820.0038.45-0.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0840.0038.03-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0850.0037.530.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.0860.0059.160.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.08100.0053.730.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0860.0062.400.000.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.07100.0052.770.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.070.0047.66-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.000.060.0035.96-0.00-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0666.6753.030.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.0675.0056.960.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0620.0029.36-0.00-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.000.0620.0022.33-0.00-0.04
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.0023.49-0.00-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0625.0053.73-0.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.060.0030.50-0.00-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0023.72-0.00-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0625.0068.20-0.000.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0633.3352.29-0.000.00
Wake ForestACC1.390.0666.6751.440.460.00
Western MichiganMAC0.830.0650.0048.100.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0633.3345.53-0.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0069.610.000.02
LipscombASun0.000.060.0043.66-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0625.0045.33-0.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.060.0063.05-0.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0633.3346.51-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.000.06100.0075.130.000.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0015.46-0.00-0.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0650.0056.120.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0625.0028.63-0.00-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0633.3354.85-0.000.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0650.0032.470.00-0.02
Texas TechB120.000.0675.0045.180.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0068.860.000.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.06100.0069.210.000.02
ButlerBE1.670.0680.0071.411.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0660.0053.140.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0675.0050.750.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0616.6732.00-0.00-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0675.0069.780.000.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0028.02-0.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.060.0019.53-0.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0625.0039.20-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0650.0060.380.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0675.0044.850.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0067.700.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0064.840.000.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0640.0060.45-0.000.01
VCUA100.000.0680.0073.390.000.03
WoffordSC0.000.0680.0077.100.000.03
AkronMAC0.000.0660.0066.680.000.02
ArmyPat0.000.06100.0069.590.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0683.3348.340.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0660.0055.000.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0650.0064.890.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.05100.0079.690.000.03
LSUSEC0.000.0560.0056.260.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0566.6746.480.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.050.0033.90-0.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.050.0023.13-0.00-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0533.3329.78-0.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0520.0037.69-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0325.0036.27-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0380.0072.400.000.01
North TexasCUSA1.390.0375.0039.180.69-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0065.020.000.01
TroySB0.000.030.0044.27-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC1.390.0340.0054.85-0.280.00
Louisiana MonroeSB1.390.0325.0043.61-0.69-0.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0325.0046.52-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0333.3353.65-0.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.0380.0063.470.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0019.02-0.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0325.0043.27-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6739.60-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0350.0047.680.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0056.410.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0360.0068.620.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0366.6739.850.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0333.3330.52-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.830.03100.0061.500.830.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0333.3337.71-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0320.0022.17-0.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0333.3360.46-0.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0047.410.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0320.0050.32-0.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0036.580.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0350.0065.590.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0016.54-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0041.21-0.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0360.0055.660.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0375.0057.260.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0350.0048.990.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0350.0028.400.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0050.620.000.00
DavidsonA100.830.0366.6764.030.280.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0325.0035.86-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0340.0038.97-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0366.6765.220.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0078.880.000.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.830.030.0067.79-0.830.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0340.0051.36-0.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0383.3369.110.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.03100.0074.590.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0360.0057.910.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.830.0333.3347.83-0.28-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0375.0055.470.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0366.6751.730.000.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0380.0057.880.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.0320.0037.96-0.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.030.0028.00-0.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0073.330.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0360.0035.980.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0340.0047.99-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0375.0055.000.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0031.24-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0325.0053.47-0.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0375.0064.570.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0018.96-0.00-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.0320.0039.05-0.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0375.0065.610.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0057.070.000.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0366.6773.130.000.01
LehighPat0.000.0320.0041.82-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0360.0039.990.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.03100.0071.310.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0325.0036.14-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0316.6726.26-0.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.03100.0065.930.000.01