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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


UCLA

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:16.9
Current RPI:19
Expected SOS:79
Current SOS:127
Current Record:9-0
Expected Record:27-4
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:9-0
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:16
Expected OOC SOS:136



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
31-04.10.58%
30-15.54.49%
29-28.111.52%
28-311.619.64%
27-415.223.69%
26-519.719.31%
25-624.811.76%
24-730.86.18%
23-839.72.00%
22-948.20.55%
21-1060.60.20%
20-1173.80.06%
19-12105.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UCLA.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Pacific (174.3)WCCH119-80W100%0.0
11-13Cal St. Northridge (260.0)BWH102-87W100%0.0
11-17San Diego (240.5)WCCH88-68W100%0.0
11-20Long Beach St. (200.9)BWH114-77W100%0.0
11-24Portland (141.2)WCCN99-77W100%0.0
11-25Nebraska (87.2)B10H82-71W100%0.0
11-27Texas A&M (43.5)SECN74-67W100%0.0
11-30UC Riverside (301.7)BWH98-56W100%0.0
12-3Kentucky (10.0)SECA92-97W100%0.0
12-10Michigan (40.6)B10H0-076%8.5
12-14UC Santa Barbara (269.9)BWH0-099%27.7
12-17Ohio St. (55.9)B10N0-073%7.4
12-21Western Michigan (219.2)MACH0-098%24.8
12-28Oregon (31.0)P12A0-052%0.8
12-30Oregon St. (264.9)P12A0-094%19.2
1-5California (61.1)P12H0-084%12.1
1-8Stanford (52.1)P12H0-085%12.3
1-12Colorado (75.1)P12A0-068%5.6
1-14Utah (94.3)P12A0-073%7.5
1-19Arizona St. (161.2)P12H0-096%20.8
1-21Arizona (29.2)P12H0-076%8.3
1-25USC (38.7)P12A0-061%3.2
2-1Washington St. (227.6)P12A0-094%18.6
2-4Washington (106.9)P12A0-075%8.2
2-9Oregon (31.0)P12H0-072%7.0
2-12Oregon St. (264.9)P12H0-098%25.4
2-18USC (38.7)P12H0-079%9.5
2-23Arizona St. (161.2)P12A0-089%14.6
2-25Arizona (29.2)P12A0-057%2.1
3-1Washington (106.9)P12H0-089%14.4
3-4Washington St. (227.6)P12H0-098%24.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UCLA's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UCLA's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UCLA.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UCLAP1228.6326.22100.0086.0028.6318.88
USCP120.744.06100.0079.680.742.41
WashingtonP120.313.9957.1454.560.040.36
ArizonaP120.003.9677.7872.810.001.81
Arizona St.P120.353.9655.5639.960.04-0.79
Oregon St.P120.003.9325.0025.05-0.00-1.96
Washington St.P120.003.9342.8631.07-0.00-1.49
OregonP120.003.8875.0075.310.001.96
ColoradoP120.402.4075.0063.500.200.65
UtahP120.692.4080.0059.480.420.45
StanfordP120.352.4066.6760.150.120.49
CaliforniaP120.002.3787.5066.460.000.78
Long Beach St.BW5.561.900.0039.76-5.56-0.39
Cal St. NorthridgeBW6.351.8728.5744.95-2.72-0.19
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.001.870.0034.97-0.00-0.56
PortlandWCC6.601.8666.6752.482.200.09
UC RiversideBW5.951.840.0032.56-5.95-0.64
San DiegoWCC5.561.8042.8632.26-0.79-0.64
Texas A&MSEC5.901.8083.3367.733.940.64
PacificWCC5.561.7250.0047.560.00-0.08
KentuckySEC5.561.72100.0084.965.561.20
NebraskaB105.561.7266.6746.431.85-0.12
MichiganB100.001.6977.7867.240.000.58
Ohio St.B100.001.6977.7863.180.000.45
Western MichiganMAC0.001.6716.6737.11-0.00-0.43
Cal St. FullertonBW0.400.3728.5733.56-0.17-0.12
Cal PolyBW0.000.3742.8641.13-0.00-0.07
UC IrvineBW0.400.3444.4453.29-0.040.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.3033.3332.79-0.00-0.10
GonzagaWCC0.000.27100.0092.200.000.23
UC DavisBW0.000.2650.0045.660.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.2462.5067.080.000.08
PepperdineWCC0.000.2442.8633.51-0.00-0.08
Michigan St.B100.350.2460.0058.780.070.04
HawaiiBW0.000.2442.8650.82-0.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.2285.7153.770.000.02
MontanaBSky0.000.1925.0048.70-0.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1925.0045.82-0.00-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.19100.0089.590.000.15
NevadaMWC0.400.1677.7871.770.220.07
Boise St.MWC0.000.1450.0056.890.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.1466.6766.650.000.05
Sacramento St.BSky0.790.140.0022.30-0.79-0.08
UNLVMWC0.690.1462.5042.780.17-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.14100.0076.540.000.07
Fresno St.MWC0.000.1357.1443.930.00-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.1350.0044.700.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.1377.7877.640.000.07
WisconsinB100.000.1377.7876.550.000.07
MissouriSEC0.000.1362.5044.840.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1257.1457.780.000.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1150.0064.910.000.03
SeattleWAC0.000.1116.6738.83-0.00-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.1140.0041.72-0.00-0.02
KansasB120.310.1188.8977.470.240.06
IowaB100.000.1144.4438.41-0.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.000.1175.0066.090.000.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.110.0019.08-0.00-0.07
TCUB120.000.11100.0060.950.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.660.1175.0069.680.330.04
San Diego St.MWC0.350.1160.0069.260.070.04
AlabamaSEC0.000.1157.1451.740.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1175.0047.520.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.1112.5030.51-0.00-0.04
IllinoisB100.000.1166.6751.140.000.00
IndianaB100.000.1187.5074.510.000.05
MarylandB100.000.1187.5059.030.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.1188.8966.920.000.04
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1155.5646.770.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0942.8656.48-0.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.350.0942.8645.50-0.05-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0812.5033.18-0.00-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0837.5050.92-0.000.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0850.0053.130.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.08100.0074.830.000.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0842.8658.24-0.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0816.6740.32-0.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0850.0056.080.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.400.0850.0040.690.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.350.0862.5058.130.090.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0871.4360.090.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0857.1454.200.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.350.0811.1120.27-0.27-0.05
Virginia TechACC0.790.0885.7162.500.570.02
Penn St.B100.000.0866.6746.170.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0887.5050.250.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0887.5069.040.000.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0842.8644.90-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0871.4347.690.00-0.00
TexasB120.000.0850.0038.730.00-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0885.7175.250.000.04
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0857.1451.810.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.0840.0043.88-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.08100.0078.180.000.04
FloridaSEC0.000.0877.7872.930.000.04
DenverSum0.000.0642.8645.65-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.0687.5070.880.000.02
AkronMAC0.000.0671.4368.930.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0650.0050.170.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0675.0058.720.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0688.8956.710.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0671.4358.830.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0683.3371.500.000.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0637.5047.57-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.790.0571.4373.270.340.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.400.0557.1472.530.060.02
Seton HallBE0.000.0575.0054.480.000.00
South DakotaSum0.400.0550.0046.820.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.350.0528.5731.07-0.15-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.0542.8650.29-0.000.00
BaylorB120.000.05100.0076.070.000.03
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0562.5050.630.000.00
CornellIvy0.000.0528.5730.43-0.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0555.5647.600.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0542.8640.38-0.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0560.0058.900.000.01
TroySB0.000.0542.8636.07-0.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0550.0037.700.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0525.0029.90-0.00-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0537.5035.03-0.00-0.02
WyomingMWC0.400.0566.6753.730.130.00
YaleIvy0.000.0542.8663.63-0.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0585.7157.280.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0525.0030.02-0.00-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.310.0587.5075.690.230.03
MississippiSEC0.000.0575.0047.990.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.310.0587.5081.910.230.03
VirginiaACC0.000.0588.8978.430.000.03
DavidsonA100.000.0571.4362.990.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0533.3352.49-0.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0544.4438.15-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0550.0066.380.000.02
The CitadelSC0.000.0550.0030.320.00-0.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0512.5023.82-0.00-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0017.16-0.00-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.350.0312.5029.77-0.26-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0357.1464.540.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0325.0041.19-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.350.0344.4436.20-0.04-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0013.32-0.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.350.0312.5031.01-0.26-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0325.0040.78-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0333.3352.03-0.000.00
ClemsonACC0.400.0371.4354.560.170.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0333.3351.98-0.000.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0333.3349.39-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0342.8650.98-0.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0312.5030.17-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0377.7866.740.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0337.5028.47-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.350.0342.8637.05-0.05-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0333.3331.35-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0385.7177.000.000.02
SamfordSC0.350.0362.5056.520.090.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.0340.0058.88-0.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0383.3377.290.000.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0320.0035.46-0.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0084.740.000.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.0316.6749.78-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0357.1448.110.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.29-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.400.0312.5028.64-0.30-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.310.0350.0042.750.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0371.4355.680.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.310.0357.1471.170.040.01
Green BayHorz0.400.0337.5048.85-0.10-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0316.6729.83-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0371.4358.170.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0020.63-0.00-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.400.0320.0042.14-0.24-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0076.970.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0320.0060.00-0.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0357.1450.790.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0026.22-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0325.0040.17-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0342.8650.33-0.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0333.3340.37-0.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.400.0360.0062.420.080.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.400.0320.0022.88-0.24-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0385.7183.250.000.02
Wichita St.MVC0.310.0377.7886.650.170.02
WoffordSC0.000.030.0034.69-0.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.350.0337.5044.42-0.09-0.00
DuquesneA100.350.0340.0039.19-0.07-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0316.6739.99-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0328.5738.92-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0342.8657.52-0.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0355.5643.870.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0316.6743.53-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.000.0333.3351.57-0.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0314.2943.08-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0377.7864.250.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0362.5053.550.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.54-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0311.1149.12-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.000.0333.3338.56-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0362.5074.160.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0377.7859.940.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.350.0325.0055.44-0.170.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.350.0375.0055.480.170.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0362.5071.850.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0328.5723.02-0.00-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0337.5038.08-0.00-0.01