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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


UCLA

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:102.0
Current RPI:102
Expected SOS:19
Current SOS:19
Current Record:15-17
Expected Record:15-17
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-1
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:63
Expected OOC SOS:23



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-17102.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UCLA.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Monmouth (52.0)MAACH81-84L0%0.0
11-15Cal Poly (236.0)BWH88-83W100%0.0
11-19Pepperdine (129.0)WCCH81-67W100%0.0
11-23UNLV (147.0)MWCN77-75W100%0.0
11-24Kansas (1.0)B12N73-92L0%0.0
11-25Wake Forest (159.0)ACCN77-80L0%0.0
11-29Cal St. Northridge (280.0)BWH77-45W100%0.0
12-3Kentucky (11.0)SECH87-77W100%0.0
12-6Long Beach St. (79.0)BWH83-76W100%0.0
12-12Gonzaga (46.0)WCCA66-71W100%0.0
12-15Louisiana Lafayette (157.0)SBH89-80W100%0.0
12-19North Carolina (5.0)ACCN76-89L0%0.0
12-22McNeese St. (341.0)SlndH67-53W100%0.0
1-1Washington (83.0)P12A96-93L0%0.0
1-3Washington St. (212.0)P12A85-78L0%0.0
1-7Arizona (26.0)P12H87-84W100%0.0
1-9Arizona St. (99.0)P12H81-74W100%0.0
1-13USC (51.0)P12H75-89L0%0.0
1-20Oregon St. (33.0)P12A73-82W100%0.0
1-23Oregon (2.0)P12A86-72L0%0.0
1-28Washington (83.0)P12H84-86L0%0.0
1-30Washington St. (212.0)P12H83-50W100%0.0
2-4USC (51.0)P12A80-61L0%0.0
2-12Arizona (26.0)P12A81-75L0%0.0
2-14Arizona St. (99.0)P12A65-78W100%0.0
2-18Utah (8.0)P12H73-75L0%0.0
2-20Colorado (35.0)P12H77-53W100%0.0
2-25California (16.0)P12A75-63L0%0.0
2-27Stanford (86.0)P12A79-70L0%0.0
3-2Oregon (2.0)P12H68-76L0%0.0
3-5Oregon St. (33.0)P12H82-86L0%0.0
3-9USC (51.0)P12N95-71L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UCLA's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UCLA's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UCLA.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UCLAP1226.2426.2441.5541.55-4.43-4.43
USCP125.505.5060.0060.001.101.10
ArizonaP123.963.9677.4277.422.172.17
OregonP123.943.9480.6580.652.412.41
Arizona St.P123.913.9150.0050.000.000.00
WashingtonP123.913.9153.3353.330.260.26
Oregon St.P123.853.8560.7160.710.830.83
Washington St.P123.853.8525.0025.00-1.93-1.93
UtahP122.422.4275.0075.001.211.21
ColoradoP122.382.3867.7467.740.840.84
CaliforniaP122.352.3568.7568.750.880.88
StanfordP122.322.3246.4346.43-0.17-0.17
Long Beach St.BW1.791.7958.0658.060.290.29
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.761.7629.6329.63-0.72-0.72
Cal PolyBW1.761.7629.6329.63-0.72-0.72
GonzagaWCC1.761.7680.6580.651.081.08
UNLVMWC1.731.7353.3353.330.120.12
MonmouthMAAC1.701.7078.7978.790.980.98
PepperdineWCC1.691.6958.6258.620.290.29
KansasB121.641.6487.5087.501.231.23
KentuckySEC1.641.6478.7978.790.940.94
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.621.6253.5753.570.120.12
McNeese St.Slnd1.591.5928.0028.00-0.70-0.70
North CarolinaACC1.591.5981.8281.821.011.01
Wake ForestACC1.591.5933.3333.33-0.53-0.53
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.400.4056.6756.670.050.05
UC IrvineBW0.280.2871.8871.880.120.12
Cal St. FullertonBW0.260.2628.5728.57-0.11-0.11
Saint Mary'sWCC0.230.2383.8783.870.160.16
Fresno St.MWC0.220.2271.8871.880.100.10
UC RiversideBW0.210.2138.7138.71-0.05-0.05
San DiegoWCC0.200.2027.5927.59-0.09-0.09
BYUWCC0.200.2068.7568.750.070.07
TexasB120.190.1962.5062.500.050.05
Boise St.MWC0.190.1960.0060.000.040.04
HawaiiBW0.180.1883.3383.330.120.12
Loyola MarymountWCC0.180.1843.3343.33-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.170.1753.1253.120.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.170.1748.4848.48-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.170.1769.7069.700.070.07
UC DavisBW0.160.1632.1432.14-0.06-0.06
San FranciscoWCC0.150.1548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
PacificWCC0.150.1523.0823.08-0.08-0.08
Santa ClaraWCC0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Texas A&MSEC0.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
San Diego St.MWC0.150.1571.8871.880.060.06
AlabamaSEC0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
Texas St.SB0.140.1444.8344.83-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
Northern ArizonaBSky0.120.1210.7110.71-0.10-0.10
IdahoBSky0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
MontanaBSky0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
IonaMAAC0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
Wichita St.MVC0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
Notre DameACC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
VirginiaACC0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
BaylorB120.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.110.1125.8125.81-0.06-0.06
Northwestern St.Slnd0.110.1120.8320.83-0.06-0.06
Idaho St.BSky0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
LSUSEC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.100.1080.0080.000.060.06
Colorado St.MWC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Miami FLACC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
QuinnipiacMAAC0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
XavierBE0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Kansas St.B120.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
South AlabamaSB0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
Portland St.BSky0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0882.1482.140.050.05
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
RiceCUSA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
WyomingMWC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
PittsburghACC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
SyracuseACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
LafayettePat0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Texas TechB120.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
West VirginiaB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
YaleIvy0.070.0777.7877.780.040.04
TennesseeSEC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.070.0739.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
LamarSlnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
TroySB0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0556.0056.000.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
IPFWSum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0572.4172.410.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
PennIvy0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
NavyPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
DavidsonA100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
TempleAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
BucknellPat0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Penn St.B100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Seton HallBE0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
AlbanyAE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
ArmyPat0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
CornellIvy0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
MarylandB100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
MississippiSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
NJITASun0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
NorthwesternB100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.020.0235.2935.29-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
WoffordSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00