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Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


UCLA

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:80.6
Current RPI:112
Expected SOS:27
Current SOS:86
Current Record:8-4
Expected Record:17-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:86
Expected OOC SOS:41



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-718.00.01%
23-822.60.14%
22-925.60.71%
21-1031.42.21%
20-1140.05.79%
19-1250.612.34%
18-1362.516.95%
17-1476.620.20%
16-1592.017.53%
15-16108.312.63%
14-17125.27.36%
13-18142.12.99%
12-19158.30.90%
11-20177.00.19%
10-21188.20.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UCLA.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Montana St. (302.9)BSkyH113-78W100%0.0
11-16Coastal Carolina (130.7)BSthH84-71W100%0.0
11-20Nicholls St. (333.3)SlndH107-74W100%0.0
11-23Long Beach St. (86.1)BWH77-63W100%0.0
11-26Oklahoma (24.9)B12N75-65L0%0.0
11-27North Carolina (9.4)ACCN56-78L0%0.0
11-28UAB (237.4)CUSAN76-88W100%0.0
12-3Cal St. Fullerton (267.3)BWH73-45W100%0.0
12-7San Diego (92.1)WCCH75-68W100%0.0
12-10UC Riverside (248.9)BWH77-66W100%0.0
12-13Gonzaga (11.4)WCCH74-87L0%0.0
12-20Kentucky (1.3)SECN83-44L0%0.0
12-28Alabama (90.0)SECA0-036%-4.2
1-2Colorado (68.9)P12A0-031%-5.8
1-4Utah (12.1)P12A0-010%-15.0
1-8Stanford (70.3)P12H0-059%2.6
1-11California (48.0)P12H0-056%1.7
1-14USC (188.5)P12A0-064%4.0
1-22Oregon St. (128.3)P12A0-040%-2.9
1-24Oregon (106.6)P12A0-037%-4.0
1-29Utah (12.1)P12H0-028%-6.7
1-31Colorado (68.9)P12H0-059%2.6
2-5Stanford (70.3)P12A0-031%-5.7
2-7California (48.0)P12A0-028%-6.7
2-11Oregon St. (128.3)P12H0-068%5.5
2-14Oregon (106.6)P12H0-064%4.3
2-18Arizona St. (125.5)P12A0-038%-3.5
2-21Arizona (14.7)P12A0-014%-12.4
2-25Washington (30.0)P12H0-051%0.1
3-1Washington St. (211.9)P12H0-089%14.2
3-4USC (188.5)P12H0-086%12.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UCLA's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UCLA's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UCLA.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UCLAP1227.6526.2354.1749.962.30-0.02
USCP120.194.0260.0037.190.04-1.03
UtahP120.263.9080.0080.490.162.38
OregonP120.003.8870.0058.010.000.62
CaliforniaP120.003.8890.9169.800.001.53
StanfordP120.003.8766.6758.560.000.66
Oregon St.P120.003.8777.7856.990.000.54
ColoradoP120.003.8766.6758.230.000.64
WashingtonP120.402.48100.0076.340.401.31
ArizonaP120.192.46100.0082.530.191.60
Arizona St.P120.002.4654.5548.050.00-0.10
Washington St.P120.192.4640.0028.72-0.04-1.05
Cal St. FullertonBW4.171.7840.0039.20-0.83-0.38
UC RiversideBW4.171.7857.1444.920.60-0.18
Long Beach St.BW4.171.7540.0052.46-0.830.09
GonzagaWCC4.171.7290.0090.223.331.38
KentuckySEC4.561.72100.0096.164.561.59
AlabamaSEC0.001.6966.6753.790.000.13
San DiegoWCC4.171.6760.0059.620.830.32
North CarolinaACC4.341.6770.0074.011.740.80
OklahomaB124.171.6466.6761.431.390.37
Montana St.BSky4.341.6422.2227.00-2.41-0.75
UABCUSA4.171.6433.3337.95-1.39-0.39
Coastal CarolinaBSth4.171.6166.6773.341.390.75
Nicholls St.Slnd4.171.610.0018.72-4.17-1.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.190.3337.5063.95-0.050.09
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.210.2718.1822.49-0.13-0.15
Loyola MarymountWCC0.260.2725.0023.40-0.13-0.14
UC IrvineBW0.000.2537.5046.38-0.00-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.190.2537.5041.94-0.05-0.04
BYUWCC0.190.2570.0068.340.080.09
AuburnSEC0.300.2250.0039.790.00-0.05
TexasB120.360.2190.9179.980.300.13
UC DavisBW0.000.1987.5068.000.000.07
PortlandWCC0.210.1970.0051.040.080.00
San Diego St.MWC0.380.1972.7372.580.170.09
DePaulBE0.000.1760.0034.160.00-0.05
HawaiiBW0.000.1766.6754.470.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1750.0054.170.000.01
WyomingMWC0.210.1780.0073.540.120.08
Portland St.BSky0.260.1650.0042.090.00-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.190.1644.4436.80-0.02-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.190.1662.5059.050.050.03
PepperdineWCC0.190.1666.6755.670.060.02
UNLVMWC0.000.1666.6749.560.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.760.1490.9188.840.620.11
MississippiSEC0.300.1470.0052.600.120.01
PacificWCC0.000.1455.5638.270.00-0.03
KansasB120.170.1490.0070.680.140.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1360.0076.250.000.07
MissouriSEC0.210.1340.0032.26-0.04-0.05
FloridaSEC0.400.1363.6465.220.110.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.400.1220.0045.74-0.24-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.1137.5056.46-0.000.01
MichiganB100.350.1150.0040.450.00-0.02
DrexelCAA0.000.1122.2235.90-0.00-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.640.1142.8641.81-0.09-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.1125.0033.40-0.00-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1188.8963.020.000.03
RiceCUSA0.000.1116.6726.98-0.00-0.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.1162.5058.080.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1144.4437.40-0.00-0.03
XavierBE0.570.1172.7367.590.260.04
MontanaBSky0.000.1125.0052.35-0.000.01
NevadaMWC0.380.1111.1125.48-0.29-0.05
Kansas St.B120.190.1163.6440.190.05-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.1160.0071.280.000.05
DukeACC0.000.11100.0087.090.000.08
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1166.6766.010.000.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1170.0061.320.000.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.10100.0084.930.000.07
SyracuseACC0.000.1060.0058.120.000.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.100.0017.69-0.00-0.06
New OrleansSlnd0.190.0920.0046.47-0.11-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.210.0916.6740.27-0.14-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.600.0927.2735.36-0.27-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.210.0914.2944.44-0.15-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0937.5050.31-0.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.350.0972.7367.520.160.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.380.0836.3645.11-0.10-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.080.009.06-0.00-0.07
IdahoBSky0.000.0837.5052.01-0.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0811.1128.88-0.00-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.210.0840.0044.08-0.04-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0837.5044.33-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.570.0855.5652.610.060.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0887.5085.480.000.06
FIUCUSA0.190.0844.4450.41-0.020.00
New MexicoMWC0.190.0872.7362.220.090.02
San Jose St.MWC0.190.080.008.00-0.19-0.07
South DakotaSum0.210.0827.2738.30-0.09-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.260.0816.6733.39-0.17-0.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0890.0065.480.000.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0842.8626.99-0.00-0.04
TCUB120.000.08100.0067.700.000.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0844.4449.14-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.190.0833.3341.02-0.06-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0866.6742.600.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0840.0048.02-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.210.0880.0063.910.120.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0866.6758.210.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0680.0076.450.000.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0620.0044.37-0.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0043.93-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0642.8649.51-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.000.0666.6761.790.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0625.0035.39-0.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0620.0025.85-0.00-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.008.60-0.00-0.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.260.0614.2915.15-0.19-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.260.0616.6736.63-0.17-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0633.3334.30-0.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.350.0642.8636.81-0.05-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.190.0666.6778.020.060.03
Wake ForestACC0.350.0645.4537.60-0.03-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.300.0640.0049.39-0.06-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.510.0633.3346.17-0.17-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0650.0055.890.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0078.210.000.03
LipscombASun0.000.0622.2238.44-0.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0633.3362.72-0.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0625.0037.03-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.069.0917.12-0.00-0.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0644.4450.60-0.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0670.0059.660.000.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0633.3340.63-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0533.3343.83-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.380.0555.5655.710.040.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.210.0530.0038.57-0.08-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0560.0056.150.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0518.1837.71-0.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.0577.7868.780.000.02
BaylorB120.000.0590.0073.240.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0550.0058.070.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.050.0014.00-0.00-0.04
DelawareCAA0.000.050.008.56-0.00-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0536.3646.72-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.000.0545.4555.13-0.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0542.8649.02-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0575.0065.140.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0550.0047.880.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.0591.6755.310.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.210.0540.0041.32-0.04-0.01
St. John'sBE0.190.0588.8965.170.150.02
Texas TechB120.000.0590.0055.360.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0563.6461.520.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0554.5548.260.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0537.5035.74-0.00-0.02
VCUA100.000.0572.7375.740.000.03
VermontAE0.000.0544.4457.69-0.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0590.9170.080.000.02
WoffordSC0.000.0577.7875.550.000.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.0580.0072.200.000.02
ButlerBE0.400.0572.7367.960.180.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0555.5646.290.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.050.0027.67-0.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0527.2729.17-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0533.3328.79-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0575.0061.480.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0580.0053.260.000.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0314.2935.86-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0355.5673.740.000.02
TroySB0.000.0333.3339.85-0.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0355.5658.650.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0325.0044.27-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6735.27-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8633.27-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.190.0377.7872.890.110.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.190.030.0011.94-0.19-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.210.0355.5655.280.020.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0336.3648.28-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.190.0340.0046.19-0.04-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0314.2929.82-0.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.190.0363.6467.210.050.01
Wright St.Horz0.190.0360.0057.890.040.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0337.5034.64-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0354.5564.070.000.01
CreightonBE0.210.0375.0052.140.100.00
George MasonA100.000.0333.3330.21-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.210.0360.0061.600.040.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.210.0316.6743.20-0.14-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0322.2236.53-0.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0360.0062.070.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0333.3337.22-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.210.0316.6737.21-0.14-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0350.0057.820.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0390.0082.310.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.190.0360.0043.160.04-0.00
SMUAmer0.190.0372.7375.710.090.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0333.3355.24-0.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.190.0320.0052.97-0.110.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0360.0047.170.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0388.8955.860.000.00
TulsaAmer0.210.0360.0056.620.040.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0320.0040.93-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0350.0051.710.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0318.1830.76-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.170.0330.0041.69-0.07-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.170.0377.7870.890.100.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0011.59-0.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0043.890.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.000.0320.0042.59-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.170.0366.6767.930.060.01
DavidsonA100.190.0388.8977.320.150.01
East CarolinaAmer0.190.0333.3337.91-0.06-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.170.0350.0068.770.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0354.5541.980.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0385.7172.910.000.01
IowaB100.190.0366.6759.420.060.00
LehighPat0.000.0344.4454.06-0.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0360.0048.980.00-0.00
MarylandB100.000.0390.9168.230.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0381.8266.010.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0333.3341.20-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.190.0350.0071.260.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0391.6777.120.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0327.2732.45-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.190.0381.8282.250.120.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0370.0051.780.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.170.0375.0057.390.090.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.190.0330.0039.59-0.08-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.190.0320.0035.33-0.11-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0086.080.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0360.0038.030.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0357.1457.100.000.00