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Through games of Dec 19, 2014.


Kansas

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:7.8
Current RPI:1
Expected SOS:1
Current SOS:3
Current Record:8-1
Expected Record:21-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:0-0
Current OOC Record:8-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:2
Expected OOC SOS:1



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-21.00.01%
28-31.00.08%
27-41.20.50%
26-51.41.70%
25-61.94.58%
24-72.69.65%
23-83.814.39%
22-95.618.67%
21-107.818.92%
20-1110.514.64%
19-1213.99.40%
18-1317.44.59%
17-1422.62.05%
16-1527.80.65%
15-1635.90.15%
14-1744.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kansas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14UC Santa Barbara (80.8)BWH69-59W100%0.0
11-18Kentucky (1.4)SECN40-72L0%0.0
11-24Rider (186.5)MAACH87-60W100%0.0
11-27Rhode Island (64.0)A10N60-76W100%0.0
11-28Tennessee (133.3)SECN82-67W100%0.0
11-30Michigan St. (26.6)B10N56-61W100%0.0
12-5Florida (42.1)SECH71-65W100%0.0
12-10Georgetown (46.6)BEA70-75W100%0.0
12-13Utah (12.6)P12N63-60W100%0.0
12-20Lafayette (88.3)PatH0-089%14.6
12-22Temple (106.7)AmerA0-075%8.0
12-30Kent St. (128.7)MACH0-091%15.8
1-4UNLV (139.1)MWCH0-095%19.0
1-7Baylor (10.4)B12A0-029%-6.5
1-10Texas Tech (89.0)B12H0-083%11.0
1-13Oklahoma St. (28.6)B12H0-070%6.1
1-17Iowa St. (37.1)B12A0-043%-2.1
1-19Oklahoma (18.5)B12H0-061%3.3
1-24Texas (5.4)B12A0-018%-10.6
1-28TCU (66.4)B12A0-047%-0.8
1-31Kansas St. (133.5)B12H0-090%15.1
2-2Iowa St. (37.1)B12H0-071%6.6
2-7Oklahoma St. (28.6)B12A0-041%-2.6
2-10Texas Tech (89.0)B12A0-058%2.2
2-14Baylor (10.4)B12H0-058%2.3
2-16West Virginia (23.4)B12A0-038%-3.7
2-21TCU (66.4)B12H0-075%8.0
2-23Kansas St. (133.5)B12A0-071%6.4
2-28Texas (5.4)B12H0-044%-1.8
3-3West Virginia (23.4)B12H0-067%5.0
3-7Oklahoma (18.5)B12A0-032%-5.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kansas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kansas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kansas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
KansasB1227.6326.3187.8068.7620.899.87
West VirginiaB120.004.1190.0068.800.001.54
Kansas St.B120.314.1160.0038.370.06-0.96
TexasB120.254.1190.0082.530.202.67
TCUB120.004.08100.0068.870.001.54
BaylorB120.004.0890.0075.030.002.04
Iowa St.B120.004.0888.8964.860.001.21
OklahomaB120.004.0877.7868.320.001.49
Texas TechB120.004.0890.0057.320.000.60
Oklahoma St.B120.004.0788.8965.310.001.25
KentuckySEC5.561.74100.0094.955.561.57
FloridaSEC5.861.7266.6766.281.950.56
TennesseeSEC5.561.7262.5047.191.39-0.10
UNLVMWC0.001.6775.0051.510.000.05
LafayettePat0.001.6675.0072.420.000.75
TempleAmer0.001.6463.6456.590.000.22
UtahP125.561.6487.5082.524.171.07
GeorgetownBE5.831.6475.0061.722.920.38
Michigan St.B105.791.6480.0075.623.470.84
RiderMAAC5.811.6454.5554.900.530.16
Kent St.MAC0.001.6175.0061.340.000.37
Rhode IslandA105.561.6171.4376.152.380.84
UC Santa BarbaraBW5.561.6142.8666.56-0.790.53
South CarolinaSEC0.000.2966.6766.120.000.10
LSUSEC0.000.2480.0064.030.000.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.220.0039.69-0.00-0.04
MissouriSEC0.000.2144.4431.92-0.00-0.08
Texas A&MSEC0.000.2177.7865.880.000.07
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1975.0060.310.000.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.590.1811.1144.75-0.46-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1850.0057.700.000.03
ButlerBE0.620.1680.0072.370.370.07
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1640.0050.17-0.000.00
MarylandB100.000.1690.9167.370.000.06
TulsaAmer0.000.1660.0056.900.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.1677.7871.770.000.07
AlabamaSEC0.000.1666.6754.650.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1650.0039.610.00-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1662.5059.500.000.03
MississippiSEC0.000.1670.0052.530.000.01
Washington St.P120.350.1440.0028.84-0.07-0.06
MemphisAmer0.000.1455.5660.240.000.03
UCLAP120.000.1472.7357.230.000.02
George MasonA100.000.1325.0026.38-0.00-0.06
ArizonaP120.000.13100.0082.300.000.09
AuburnSEC0.000.1344.4435.91-0.00-0.04
IowaB100.000.1372.7362.430.000.03
Oregon St.P120.000.1177.7855.570.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.1133.3327.57-0.00-0.05
ProvidenceBE0.600.1172.7353.500.270.01
CreightonBE0.000.1175.0051.760.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.1142.8636.96-0.00-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1120.0045.49-0.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.11100.0071.400.000.05
MarquetteBE0.560.1160.0049.590.11-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC1.140.1150.0040.680.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.250.1175.0059.930.130.02
WisconsinB100.310.1190.9188.540.250.08
Air ForceMWC0.000.1157.1461.580.000.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.110.0036.84-0.00-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.110.0034.05-0.00-0.03
StanfordP120.000.1175.0057.490.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.1172.7365.120.000.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.1125.0048.53-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.1110.0018.50-0.00-0.07
UMKCWAC0.000.1122.2242.00-0.00-0.02
BradleyMVC0.000.1033.3332.70-0.00-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1044.4456.59-0.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.310.0942.8642.92-0.04-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0860.0064.750.000.02
Boston UniversityPat0.250.0833.3342.54-0.08-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0850.0049.930.00-0.00
LehighPat0.230.0837.5047.68-0.06-0.00
NavyPat0.250.0820.0021.61-0.15-0.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0855.5640.440.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.310.0828.5737.33-0.13-0.02
YaleIvy0.280.0872.7366.650.130.03
Arizona St.P120.000.0860.0053.630.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.250.0877.7870.500.140.03
VillanovaBE0.000.08100.0081.870.000.05
San Diego St.MWC0.310.0870.0073.030.120.04
PennIvy0.230.0837.5033.00-0.06-0.03
SMUAmer0.350.0870.0071.300.140.03
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0830.0029.59-0.00-0.03
CaliforniaP120.000.0890.9168.690.000.03
IndianaB100.000.0880.0057.340.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0855.5656.260.000.01
RadfordBSth0.310.0855.5659.230.030.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.250.0818.1838.45-0.16-0.02
OaklandHorz0.250.0830.0031.32-0.10-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.310.0881.8264.670.200.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0814.2929.35-0.00-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.080.0015.18-0.00-0.05
PurdueB100.000.0872.7363.770.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.250.0855.5655.500.030.01
ArmyPat0.000.0677.7868.880.000.02
BucknellPat0.000.0640.0036.30-0.00-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0642.8638.86-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0636.3638.89-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0620.0027.89-0.00-0.03
ColgatePat0.000.0620.0043.07-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.350.0677.7869.590.190.02
FordhamA100.000.0628.5728.06-0.00-0.03
HawaiiBW0.000.0666.6754.760.000.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.0657.1453.100.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0660.0055.280.000.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0685.7161.910.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0637.5046.89-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0660.0033.900.00-0.02
OregonP120.000.0666.6757.860.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.310.0630.0039.58-0.12-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.350.06100.0078.490.350.03
MercerSC0.350.0644.4444.53-0.04-0.01
VCUA100.310.0670.0071.450.120.02
AkronMAC0.000.0660.0056.170.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0675.0067.160.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.0666.6757.620.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.0660.0034.020.00-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0650.0047.740.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3334.61-0.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0642.8637.74-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0690.0067.320.000.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0688.8964.830.000.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.310.0633.3341.24-0.10-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0660.0058.890.000.01
USCP120.000.0660.0036.070.00-0.02
XavierBE0.000.0680.0070.970.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0630.0028.56-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.350.0540.0046.66-0.07-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.580.0577.7851.830.320.00
NebraskaB100.350.0566.6744.280.12-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.230.0533.3340.96-0.08-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0514.2933.57-0.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.250.0571.4363.270.110.01
TowsonCAA0.310.0566.6751.280.100.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.0575.0069.170.000.02
DrakeMVC0.000.0520.0020.26-0.00-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.000.0562.5071.350.000.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0514.2933.59-0.00-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0537.5040.37-0.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0511.1125.05-0.00-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.000.0570.0058.740.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0536.3665.17-0.000.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0554.5559.120.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0544.4445.51-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.050.007.81-0.00-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0520.0029.91-0.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0566.6777.530.000.03
Utah St.MWC0.000.0560.0052.190.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0528.5742.44-0.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0577.7873.540.000.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.050.0028.56-0.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0566.6742.760.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0555.5661.600.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0577.7868.980.000.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0550.0045.370.00-0.00
DukeACC0.250.05100.0087.560.250.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0537.5038.43-0.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0544.4440.07-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0522.2231.52-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.050.009.00-0.00-0.04
IonaMAAC0.230.0566.6772.800.080.02
LipscombASun0.000.0522.2238.12-0.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0522.2237.84-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0510.0018.65-0.00-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.000.0525.0038.65-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.0555.5642.460.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0544.4455.60-0.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0520.0046.54-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.530.0570.0072.100.210.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0533.3343.01-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0560.0040.370.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0566.6752.850.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0544.4449.63-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0516.6726.71-0.00-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0536.3647.58-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0518.1827.79-0.00-0.02
SienaMAAC0.230.0533.3348.90-0.08-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0544.4444.86-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0550.0062.120.000.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0550.0050.060.000.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0588.8955.090.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.0555.5634.700.00-0.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0542.8637.71-0.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0555.5638.620.00-0.01
VMISC0.000.0533.3338.93-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0577.7875.790.000.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0512.5029.32-0.00-0.02
BrownIvy0.000.0340.0033.52-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0387.5076.810.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0377.7869.970.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0344.4448.82-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.0328.5731.22-0.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0328.5741.46-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6766.380.000.01
NJITind0.000.0336.3641.21-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0355.5657.270.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0350.0058.380.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.350.0354.5557.650.030.00
SeattleWAC0.350.0333.3343.77-0.12-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.350.0342.8626.94-0.05-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0065.210.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.350.0355.5654.330.040.00
VermontAE0.000.0344.4457.69-0.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.310.0333.3363.11-0.100.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0342.8638.37-0.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.310.0366.6768.290.100.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0385.7170.370.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0360.0063.510.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0318.1821.03-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0336.3633.52-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.34-0.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.310.0325.0032.93-0.15-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8633.87-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0366.6755.450.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0354.5544.640.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.310.0322.2240.60-0.17-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.310.0325.0028.59-0.15-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0362.5055.010.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.310.0387.5085.540.230.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0345.4543.81-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0333.3348.78-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0371.4364.140.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0316.6737.98-0.00-0.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0366.6748.270.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0073.610.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0327.2738.75-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.310.0344.4449.69-0.03-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.230.0322.2230.49-0.13-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.250.0362.5064.770.060.01
DelawareCAA0.000.030.007.43-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.250.0350.0068.680.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0350.0038.230.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.250.0336.3644.80-0.07-0.00
HartfordAE0.230.0350.0050.810.000.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0371.4347.640.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.280.0310.0018.22-0.22-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0333.3344.60-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.280.0333.3345.26-0.09-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0372.7367.410.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0085.970.000.02
Miami FLACC0.280.0381.8266.320.180.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0380.0066.580.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.250.0322.2228.76-0.14-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.230.0318.1836.00-0.15-0.01
Notre DameACC0.250.0390.9172.430.210.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0390.0084.460.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0390.9153.570.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0360.0034.920.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0316.6730.30-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.280.0330.0036.94-0.11-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0350.0038.520.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.280.0357.1456.650.040.00