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Through games of Nov 20, 2014.


Kansas

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:26.9
Current RPI:141
Expected SOS:1
Current SOS:122
Current Record:1-1
Expected Record:17-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:1-0
Current OOC Record:1-1
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:11
Expected OOC SOS:3



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-41.80.04%
24-52.10.29%
23-63.20.76%
22-74.42.34%
21-86.65.12%
20-99.19.05%
19-1013.114.30%
18-1118.516.79%
17-1225.215.96%
16-1333.814.43%
15-1444.29.83%
14-1556.76.00%
13-1671.13.24%
12-1787.11.25%
11-1899.60.45%
10-19128.70.07%
9-20134.50.04%
8-21142.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kansas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14UC Santa Barbara (142.0)BWH69-59W100%0.0
11-18Kentucky (4.1)SECN40-72L0%0.0
11-24Rider (187.7)MAACH0-092%16.7
11-27Rhode Island (121.4)A10N0-074%7.9
12-5Florida (29.0)SECH0-054%1.2
12-10Georgetown (43.7)BEA0-043%-2.1
12-13Utah (51.6)P12N0-055%1.4
12-20Lafayette (120.4)PatH0-086%12.9
12-22Temple (99.1)AmerA0-063%3.9
12-30Kent St. (126.6)MACH0-088%14.0
1-4UNLV (94.4)MWCH0-081%10.6
1-7Baylor (25.2)B12A0-035%-4.8
1-10Texas Tech (168.5)B12H0-086%12.8
1-13Oklahoma St. (89.5)B12H0-076%8.4
1-17Iowa St. (53.2)B12A0-043%-2.1
1-19Oklahoma (48.1)B12H0-065%4.7
1-24Texas (3.7)B12A0-016%-11.9
1-28TCU (161.5)B12A0-063%3.9
1-31Kansas St. (67.8)B12H0-069%5.9
2-2Iowa St. (53.2)B12H0-066%5.0
2-7Oklahoma St. (89.5)B12A0-054%1.3
2-10Texas Tech (168.5)B12A0-068%5.7
2-14Baylor (25.2)B12H0-058%2.4
2-16West Virginia (32.7)B12A0-039%-3.3
2-21TCU (161.5)B12H0-082%11.1
2-23Kansas St. (67.8)B12A0-046%-1.3
2-28Texas (3.7)B12H0-035%-4.7
3-3West Virginia (32.7)B12H0-063%3.9
3-7Oklahoma (48.1)B12A0-042%-2.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kansas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kansas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kansas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
KansasB1235.4226.4037.5058.15-8.854.30
TexasB120.004.43100.0085.060.003.10
West VirginiaB120.004.43100.0068.390.001.63
TCUB120.004.40100.0056.300.000.55
Texas TechB120.004.4050.0046.610.00-0.30
BaylorB120.004.40100.0071.570.001.90
Iowa St.B120.004.40100.0062.480.001.10
Kansas St.B120.004.40100.0061.290.000.99
OklahomaB120.004.3950.0059.320.000.82
Oklahoma St.B120.004.39100.0051.130.000.10
KentuckySEC25.001.84100.0084.7825.001.28
FloridaSEC0.001.8150.0069.440.000.70
LafayettePat0.001.7866.6766.160.000.58
GeorgetownBE0.001.75100.0065.720.000.55
UNLVMWC0.001.75100.0058.450.000.30
UtahP120.001.7550.0064.090.000.49
Kent St.MAC0.001.72100.0060.580.000.36
Rhode IslandA100.001.72100.0054.430.000.15
RiderMAAC0.001.7250.0052.360.000.08
TempleAmer0.001.72100.0057.840.000.27
UC Santa BarbaraBW25.001.720.0057.38-25.000.25
South CarolinaSEC0.000.2766.6757.950.000.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.240.0033.38-0.00-0.08
MissouriSEC0.000.2166.6753.710.000.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.2150.0059.620.000.04
LSUSEC0.000.20100.0063.440.000.05
Long Beach St.BW0.000.180.0046.51-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.1533.3324.67-0.00-0.08
Washington St.P120.000.150.0032.60-0.00-0.05
MemphisAmer0.000.150.0065.41-0.000.05
UCLAP120.000.15100.0064.410.000.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.150.0038.86-0.00-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.000.15100.0048.650.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.14100.0056.850.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1450.0054.530.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.1466.6760.300.000.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.14100.0070.520.000.06
CreightonBE0.000.13100.0055.970.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.12100.0062.990.000.03
Oregon St.P120.000.12100.0044.490.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.120.0039.93-0.00-0.02
WashingtonP120.000.12100.0056.080.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.1266.6739.300.00-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.120.0052.18-0.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.1266.6757.250.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.12100.0048.410.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.120.0051.39-0.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.120.0044.87-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.1250.0059.510.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.12100.0074.610.000.06
TennesseeSEC0.000.1250.0043.860.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.1250.0044.770.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.120.0025.25-0.00-0.06
IowaB100.000.1266.6773.790.000.06
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.120.0045.95-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.120.0016.22-0.00-0.08
StanfordP120.000.12100.0059.450.000.02
AuburnSEC0.000.1250.0037.190.00-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.000.100.0028.57-0.00-0.04
La SalleA100.000.10100.0056.340.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1033.3333.86-0.00-0.03
VillanovaBE0.000.09100.0068.630.000.03
LehighPat0.000.090.0039.97-0.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.0933.3369.45-0.000.04
AmericanPat0.000.0950.0054.500.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.090.0054.91-0.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0933.3343.60-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0950.0055.200.000.01
PennIvy0.000.090.0025.99-0.00-0.04
ArizonaP120.000.09100.0070.580.000.04
Arizona St.P120.000.09100.0061.570.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.090.0036.23-0.00-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.09100.0080.040.000.05
Southern UtahBSky0.000.090.0024.28-0.00-0.05
BuffaloMAC4.170.0966.6762.171.390.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.090.0032.05-0.00-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.090.0034.17-0.00-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.090.0058.38-0.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0966.6755.190.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.070.0034.75-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0733.3345.60-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun6.250.07100.0071.686.250.03
FordhamA100.000.070.0036.83-0.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0766.6748.810.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.07100.0063.480.000.02
Saint LouisA100.000.07100.0068.930.000.03
UC DavisBW0.000.07100.0043.520.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0750.0064.340.000.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.070.0039.41-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0057.160.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.06100.0039.730.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0650.0054.560.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0055.750.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0053.570.000.00
XavierBE0.000.06100.0070.050.000.03
OregonP120.000.06100.0064.920.000.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0633.3337.88-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0650.0043.510.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.06100.0058.890.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.0633.3347.64-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.000.060.0036.81-0.00-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.000.06100.0061.790.000.01
NavyPat0.000.060.0030.65-0.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0650.0055.890.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.060.0059.82-0.000.01
MarylandB100.000.06100.0067.780.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.060.0049.27-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.060.0031.43-0.00-0.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0650.0045.250.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0633.3350.49-0.000.00
WagnerNEC0.000.060.0044.27-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.06100.0069.720.000.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.06100.0065.680.000.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0062.880.000.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.06100.0058.500.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0633.3357.17-0.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.06100.0068.310.000.02
DrakeMVC0.000.060.0029.13-0.00-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0650.0043.770.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.060.0060.93-0.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0650.0058.740.000.01
LamarSlnd0.000.060.0033.91-0.00-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.060.0057.31-0.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.060.0043.95-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.06100.0041.770.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0650.0034.320.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0650.0035.720.00-0.02
NevadaMWC0.000.06100.0051.540.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0666.6761.240.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0633.3364.95-0.000.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0650.0029.100.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0044.49-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0061.120.000.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0633.3338.23-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.060.0034.44-0.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0650.0055.290.000.01
PurdueB100.000.06100.0061.020.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0650.0055.360.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.0019.51-0.00-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0633.3334.10-0.00-0.02
SienaMAAC0.000.0633.3359.54-0.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.060.0066.74-0.000.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.06100.0028.940.00-0.03
ToledoMAC0.000.0650.0063.260.000.02
USCP120.000.0633.3326.65-0.00-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.000.06100.0063.690.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.06100.0043.270.00-0.01
VMISC0.000.0650.0044.060.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0650.0065.490.000.02
WyomingMWC0.000.06100.0055.290.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.060.0026.72-0.00-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.06100.0036.790.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0049.85-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0633.3334.62-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0065.830.000.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.060.0034.86-0.00-0.02
FurmanSC0.000.0650.0024.870.00-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0021.31-0.00-0.03
LipscombASun0.000.060.0040.22-0.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.06100.0056.370.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0034.19-0.00-0.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0650.0029.910.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0028.74-0.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.06100.0044.020.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.060.0048.12-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0029.61-0.00-0.02
Texas St.SB0.000.06100.0055.450.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0650.0035.370.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.06100.0045.740.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.000.060.0029.13-0.00-0.02
BrownIvy0.000.0333.3338.98-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.03100.0049.500.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.03100.0072.390.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0053.31-0.000.00
DuquesneA100.000.030.0051.69-0.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.03100.0071.490.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.03100.0051.780.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0350.0061.220.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0366.6749.560.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0350.0053.850.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0350.0053.410.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0350.0050.330.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0333.3331.05-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.03100.0076.230.000.02
VermontAE0.000.0350.0066.190.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.03100.0066.730.000.01
IndianaB100.000.03100.0064.540.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.030.0055.09-0.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.030.0053.19-0.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0350.0035.120.00-0.01
NJITind0.000.0333.3329.88-0.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0350.0037.010.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.030.0062.68-0.000.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0350.0064.020.000.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.030.0050.29-0.000.00
BYUWCC0.000.03100.0068.310.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.03100.0078.150.000.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.030.0046.79-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0040.980.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0062.270.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0050.480.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0350.0056.950.000.00
HartfordAE0.000.0366.6738.100.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0350.0040.830.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.030.0023.67-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.030.0031.29-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.03100.0051.730.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0068.310.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0350.0066.390.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.030.0058.61-0.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.030.0038.34-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.25-0.00-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.030.0039.05-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.03100.0046.120.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.000.03100.0049.930.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.030.0060.94-0.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.030.0035.01-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.030.0049.36-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0350.0060.330.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0366.6747.950.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0056.380.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.03100.0084.320.000.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0350.0046.350.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.030.0036.60-0.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.030.0042.76-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.000.03100.0085.060.000.02
HoustonAmer0.000.03100.0065.680.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.030.0043.54-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0350.0067.190.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0350.0061.730.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0062.600.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC4.170.0333.3350.61-1.390.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0077.610.000.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.030.0023.81-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0067.660.000.01