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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Kansas

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:7.5
Current RPI:25
Expected SOS:2
Current SOS:62
Current Record:6-1
Expected Record:24-7
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:1-0
Current OOC Record:6-1
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:3
Expected OOC SOS:5



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
30-11.00.03%
29-21.10.31%
28-31.21.51%
27-41.54.82%
26-52.210.23%
25-63.416.61%
24-75.319.74%
23-87.818.89%
22-911.113.22%
21-1014.78.09%
20-1119.14.15%
19-1224.11.68%
18-1332.00.50%
17-1441.70.14%
16-1549.70.07%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kansas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Indiana (20.3)B10N99-103L0%0.0
11-15Duke (8.6)ACCN77-75W100%0.0
11-18Siena (144.9)MAACH86-65W100%0.0
11-21UAB (128.6)CUSAH83-63W100%0.0
11-22Georgia (65.1)SECN65-54W100%0.0
11-25UNC Asheville (105.8)BSthH95-57W100%0.0
11-29Long Beach St. (199.2)BWH91-61W100%0.0
12-3Stanford (54.1)P12H0-089%14.9
12-6UMKC (146.9)WACH0-099%26.2
12-10Nebraska (94.1)B10H0-093%17.6
12-17Davidson (48.3)A10N0-083%11.3
12-22UNLV (163.6)MWCA0-091%16.2
12-30TCU (53.5)B12A0-071%6.6
1-3Kansas St. (99.4)B12H0-088%14.1
1-7Texas Tech (68.9)B12H0-081%10.7
1-10Oklahoma (70.0)B12A0-070%6.3
1-14Oklahoma St. (58.3)B12H0-083%11.6
1-16Iowa St. (31.7)B12A0-049%-0.4
1-21Texas (135.5)B12H0-093%17.7
1-24West Virginia (16.0)B12A0-033%-5.1
1-28Kentucky (7.3)SECA0-035%-4.7
2-1Baylor (11.5)B12H0-070%6.3
2-4Iowa St. (31.7)B12H0-069%5.8
2-6Kansas St. (99.4)B12A0-074%7.9
2-11Texas Tech (68.9)B12A0-065%4.5
2-13West Virginia (16.0)B12H0-053%1.1
2-18Baylor (11.5)B12A0-050%0.1
2-22TCU (53.5)B12H0-086%12.8
2-25Texas (135.5)B12A0-083%11.5
2-27Oklahoma (70.0)B12H0-085%12.5
3-4Oklahoma St. (58.3)B12A0-067%5.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kansas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kansas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kansas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
KansasB1228.7026.3081.4875.9518.0713.65
TexasB120.004.1650.0037.910.00-1.00
West VirginiaB120.004.1083.3382.210.002.64
TCUB120.004.10100.0062.170.001.00
Kansas St.B120.004.0885.7158.450.000.69
Texas TechB120.004.0885.7166.320.001.33
BaylorB120.004.07100.0076.930.002.19
Iowa St.B120.004.0771.4370.940.001.71
OklahomaB120.004.0783.3354.030.000.33
Oklahoma St.B120.004.0783.3358.850.000.72
GeorgiaSEC7.741.7480.0056.264.640.22
UNLVMWC0.001.6971.4350.950.000.03
KentuckySEC0.001.67100.0086.950.001.23
UNC AshevilleBSth8.251.6760.0067.161.650.57
Long Beach St.BW7.141.660.0040.71-7.14-0.31
UABCUSA7.141.6666.6764.072.380.47
UMKCWAC0.001.6671.4358.070.000.27
IndianaB107.141.6480.0074.234.290.80
SienaMAAC7.741.6433.3352.19-2.580.07
DukeACC7.141.64100.0081.307.141.03
NebraskaB100.001.6450.0044.910.00-0.17
DavidsonA100.001.6183.3370.720.000.67
StanfordP120.001.6175.0060.830.000.35
AuburnSEC0.000.2783.3355.200.000.03
North CarolinaACC1.040.2185.7180.010.740.13
Michigan St.B100.450.1950.0061.590.000.04
FloridaSEC0.000.1987.5075.320.000.09
Gardner WebbBSth0.600.1620.0048.38-0.36-0.01
ClemsonACC0.600.1666.6753.460.200.01
WashingtonP120.450.1657.1452.630.060.01
MichiganB100.000.1671.4366.530.000.05
NorthwesternB100.000.1671.4366.220.000.05
MarylandB100.000.1685.7156.490.000.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1683.3361.490.000.04
ArkansasSEC0.000.1683.3362.840.000.04
LouisvilleACC0.450.1685.7175.950.320.08
VCUA100.600.1485.7178.150.430.08
Arizona St.P120.000.1457.1436.050.00-0.04
George WashingtonA101.620.1457.1444.160.23-0.02
IowaB100.000.1442.8644.33-0.00-0.02
OregonP120.000.1471.4366.730.000.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1333.3348.73-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.450.1371.4386.030.190.10
Miami FLACC0.000.1371.4365.740.000.04
WisconsinB100.000.1375.0073.840.000.06
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1357.1448.860.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.1366.6756.020.000.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.600.130.0024.77-0.60-0.07
TennesseeSEC0.000.1325.0034.47-0.00-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1366.6766.100.000.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.130.0037.92-0.00-0.03
Ohio St.B100.000.1185.7172.660.000.05
CampbellBSth0.000.1125.0033.54-0.00-0.04
UCLAP120.450.11100.0083.550.450.07
SouthernSWAC0.000.1125.0056.92-0.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.1171.4359.850.000.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.1125.0024.66-0.00-0.05
RadfordBSth0.000.1133.3336.31-0.00-0.03
RichmondA100.000.1157.1448.600.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.110.0019.30-0.00-0.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1157.1467.020.000.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.020.110.0024.25-1.02-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.450.1150.0071.330.000.05
MississippiSEC0.000.1171.4346.010.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.450.1162.5043.960.11-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.1157.1442.660.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1112.5048.98-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.000.1071.4349.770.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1033.3338.19-0.00-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.1050.0053.560.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0871.4368.100.000.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.450.0850.0056.260.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.080.0021.30-0.00-0.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0825.0038.72-0.00-0.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0828.5723.76-0.00-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0871.4343.020.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.450.0871.4370.330.190.03
LibertyBSth0.600.0840.0050.71-0.120.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0816.6743.29-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0833.3346.81-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0857.1469.300.000.03
FurmanSC1.700.0820.0049.38-1.02-0.00
Green BayHorz0.000.0833.3348.71-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0850.0045.920.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0885.7159.740.000.02
PurdueB100.000.0871.4374.450.000.04
Saint LouisA100.000.0833.3326.75-0.00-0.04
Washington St.P120.000.0850.0036.820.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0816.6718.96-0.00-0.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0816.6730.02-0.00-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.000.08100.0080.780.000.05
UC RiversideBW0.000.080.0033.43-0.00-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0842.8634.17-0.00-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.0840.0030.80-0.00-0.03
RiceCUSA0.000.0885.7169.010.000.03
UTSACUSA0.000.0828.5728.46-0.00-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0850.0027.250.00-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0833.3341.52-0.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.080.0038.51-0.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.450.0842.8635.68-0.06-0.02
VirginiaACC0.000.08100.0082.550.000.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0650.0059.670.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0017.30-0.00-0.04
SeattleWAC0.000.0620.0042.63-0.00-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0625.0024.28-0.00-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0660.0058.950.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0076.650.000.03
South DakotaSum0.000.0657.1447.220.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.600.0633.3338.20-0.20-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.0685.7170.990.000.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0683.3363.610.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0666.6772.440.000.02
FordhamA100.000.0657.1443.680.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.0650.0051.260.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0633.3327.13-0.00-0.03
UtahP120.000.0675.0061.040.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0660.0070.500.000.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0550.0038.430.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0575.0054.320.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0566.6751.090.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0540.0067.95-0.000.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.510.05100.0089.040.510.04
Appalachian St.SB0.450.0520.0036.00-0.27-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.0537.5034.65-0.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0583.3358.030.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0585.7165.670.000.02
RutgersB100.000.0583.3344.770.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.510.0566.6770.740.170.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0585.7162.920.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0525.0053.29-0.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0514.2934.56-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0585.7168.390.000.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0550.0029.280.00-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0533.3335.92-0.00-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0514.2929.15-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0585.7180.960.000.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0533.3338.76-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0516.6733.69-0.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0520.0034.39-0.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0550.0047.560.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.05100.0091.060.000.04
HawaiiBW0.000.0550.0050.940.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0550.0066.170.000.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.050.0042.55-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0557.1447.320.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0583.3359.600.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0585.7173.010.000.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0525.0030.93-0.00-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0516.6740.71-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0540.0057.49-0.000.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.050.0034.01-0.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0550.0058.600.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.050.0024.19-0.00-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.05100.0069.770.000.02
The CitadelSC0.000.0540.0027.05-0.00-0.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0514.2926.81-0.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0560.0039.200.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0557.1448.410.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0550.0054.690.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.050.0033.44-0.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.050.0033.58-0.00-0.02
XavierBE0.000.05100.0074.800.000.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.0566.6739.720.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0525.0056.71-0.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0550.0042.710.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0542.8646.78-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0566.6751.460.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0583.3362.080.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0585.7162.410.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.050.0034.18-0.00-0.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0557.1440.550.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0514.2929.81-0.00-0.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0560.0070.140.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0550.0051.820.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0520.0032.60-0.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0571.4371.570.000.02
NevadaMWC0.000.0575.0070.470.000.02
New HampshireAE0.000.0550.0057.480.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0571.4358.670.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0516.6727.03-0.00-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0542.8637.25-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0550.0052.140.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0516.6732.62-0.00-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0516.6734.31-0.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0550.0047.990.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0525.0039.28-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0560.0052.760.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0575.0074.990.000.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0540.0037.44-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0571.4363.570.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0557.1464.940.000.02
VMISC0.000.050.0021.15-0.00-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.0571.4352.370.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.050.0022.69-0.00-0.03
WyomingMWC0.000.0560.0048.590.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0333.3343.64-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0342.8661.90-0.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0314.2937.52-0.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0328.5739.44-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0362.5056.500.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0357.1442.940.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.0312.5022.55-0.00-0.02
HarvardIvy0.000.030.0043.04-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0340.0050.88-0.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0357.1459.480.000.01
La SalleA100.000.0360.0051.780.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0383.3358.080.000.00
MercerSC0.000.0350.0053.050.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.030.0021.30-0.00-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0046.780.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0371.4354.520.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0366.6758.420.000.00
USCP120.000.03100.0075.380.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0320.0054.94-0.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.510.030.0013.30-0.51-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.450.0342.8640.94-0.06-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0055.850.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0366.6761.340.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0371.4363.090.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0383.3378.430.000.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0366.6765.810.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0350.0035.230.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0333.3323.33-0.00-0.01
TroySB0.510.0333.3332.23-0.17-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0325.0043.26-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.510.0350.0060.380.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0340.0041.65-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.0350.0058.980.000.00
BucknellPat0.000.0375.0067.660.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0075.690.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0316.6730.27-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.510.0328.5730.63-0.22-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0316.6736.35-0.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.600.0366.6770.930.200.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0360.0039.610.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.0316.6725.61-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0371.4350.570.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0314.2928.15-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0075.010.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0385.7155.550.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0357.1440.590.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.0383.3361.150.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0350.0046.670.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0023.26-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6770.140.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0383.3370.360.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.600.0325.0040.81-0.30-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0385.7174.430.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0362.5071.630.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.450.0340.0055.44-0.090.00