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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Kansas

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:1.0
Current RPI:1
Expected SOS:1
Current SOS:1
Current Record:29-4
Expected Record:29-4
Current Conf Record:18-3
Expected Conf Record:18-3
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:9-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:5
Expected OOC SOS:21



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-41.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kansas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Northern Colorado (304.0)BSkyH109-72W100%0.0
11-17Michigan St. (12.0)B10N79-73L0%0.0
11-24UCLA (102.0)P12N73-92W100%0.0
11-25Vanderbilt (63.0)SECN70-63W100%0.0
12-1Loyola MD (255.0)PatH94-61W100%0.0
12-5Harvard (193.0)IvyH75-69W100%0.0
12-9Holy Cross (248.0)PatH92-59W100%0.0
12-12Oregon St. (33.0)P12H82-67W100%0.0
12-19Montana (145.0)BSkyH88-46W100%0.0
12-22San Diego St. (41.0)MWCA57-70W100%0.0
12-29UC Irvine (75.0)BWH78-53W100%0.0
1-2Baylor (25.0)B12H102-74W100%0.0
1-4Oklahoma (6.0)B12H109-106W100%0.0
1-9Texas Tech (36.0)B12A59-69W100%0.0
1-12West Virginia (10.0)B12A74-63L0%0.0
1-16TCU (174.0)B12H70-63W100%0.0
1-19Oklahoma St. (170.0)B12A86-67L0%0.0
1-23Texas (27.0)B12H76-67W100%0.0
1-25Iowa St. (23.0)B12A85-72L0%0.0
1-30Kentucky (11.0)SECH90-84W100%0.0
2-3Kansas St. (92.0)B12H77-59W100%0.0
2-6TCU (174.0)B12A56-75W100%0.0
2-9West Virginia (10.0)B12H75-65W100%0.0
2-13Oklahoma (6.0)B12A72-76W100%0.0
2-15Oklahoma St. (170.0)B12H94-67W100%0.0
2-20Kansas St. (92.0)B12A63-72W100%0.0
2-23Baylor (25.0)B12A60-66W100%0.0
2-27Texas Tech (36.0)B12H67-58W100%0.0
2-29Texas (27.0)B12A56-86W100%0.0
3-5Iowa St. (23.0)B12H85-78W100%0.0
3-10Kansas St. (92.0)B12N85-63W100%0.0
3-11Baylor (25.0)B12N70-66W100%0.0
3-12West Virginia (10.0)B12N81-71W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kansas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kansas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kansas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
KansasB1226.4826.4889.9389.9321.1521.15
West VirginiaB125.515.5180.6580.653.383.38
BaylorB125.465.4672.4172.412.452.45
Kansas St.B125.445.4456.6756.670.720.72
OklahomaB124.064.0683.3383.332.712.71
TCUB124.044.0438.7138.71-0.91-0.91
TexasB124.014.0166.6766.671.341.34
Oklahoma St.B123.993.9936.6736.67-1.06-1.06
Iowa St.B123.963.9666.6766.671.321.32
Texas TechB123.963.9665.5265.521.231.23
VanderbiltSEC1.681.6861.2961.290.380.38
Holy CrossPat1.621.6243.7543.75-0.20-0.20
UCLAP121.591.5948.3948.39-0.05-0.05
KentuckySEC1.591.5978.7978.790.910.91
HarvardIvy1.591.5944.4444.44-0.18-0.18
Loyola MDPat1.581.5831.0331.03-0.60-0.60
San Diego St.MWC1.581.5874.1974.190.770.77
MontanaBSky1.571.5764.2964.290.450.45
Northern ColoradoBSky1.571.5728.5728.57-0.67-0.67
Oregon St.P121.561.5662.0762.070.380.38
Michigan St.B101.521.5284.8584.851.061.06
UC IrvineBW1.521.5274.1974.190.730.73
Texas A&MSEC0.330.3376.4776.470.170.17
WashingtonP120.240.2456.2556.250.030.03
FloridaSEC0.230.2357.5857.580.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.210.2156.2556.250.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.210.2159.3859.380.040.04
OregonP120.190.1981.8281.820.120.12
North DakotaBSky0.170.1748.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.170.1724.2424.24-0.09-0.09
TennesseeSEC0.160.1644.1244.12-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
UtahP120.150.1575.7675.760.080.08
Boston UniversityPat0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
AuburnSEC0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
HawaiiBW0.140.1483.3383.330.100.10
Colorado St.MWC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
ColgatePat0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.140.1482.3582.350.090.09
CaliforniaP120.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
ColumbiaIvy0.120.1265.5265.520.040.04
StanfordP120.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
USCP120.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Boise St.MWC0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
ArmyPat0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
BucknellPat0.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
LehighPat0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
MinnesotaB100.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.120.1222.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
RichmondA100.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
LSUSEC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
MississippiSEC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
MissouriSEC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
IdahoBSky0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.100.1037.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
AmericanPat0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
NavyPat0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0977.4277.420.050.05
Cal PolyBW0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Utah St.MWC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
WisconsinB100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
BrownIvy0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
UC RiversideBW0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
ArizonaP120.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
NevadaMWC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
TowsonCAA0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
TulsaAmer0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.070.0787.1087.100.050.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0726.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0720.8320.83-0.04-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0782.1482.140.050.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
UNLVMWC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
IllinoisB100.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Saint LouisA100.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
South DakotaSum0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
CornellIvy0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
YaleIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
UMBCAE0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
High PointBSth0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.050.053.453.45-0.04-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0556.0056.000.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
UC DavisBW0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0513.3313.33-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.9012.90-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.040.0474.1974.190.020.02
MarylandB100.040.0475.0075.000.020.02
Penn St.B100.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
RutgersB100.040.0419.3519.35-0.03-0.03
BryantNEC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
DetroitHorz0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0279.3179.310.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0283.8783.870.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
NebraskaB100.020.0247.0647.06-0.00-0.00
NJITASun0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
OaklandHorz0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00