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Through games of Feb 12, 2016.


Kansas

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:4.0
Current RPI:4
Expected SOS:2
Current SOS:3
Current Record:19-4
Expected Record:24-6
Current Conf Record:8-3
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:5
Expected OOC SOS:34



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-41.05.21%
25-51.422.07%
24-62.933.08%
23-75.325.84%
22-88.710.89%
21-913.12.57%
20-1019.10.33%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kansas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Northern Colorado (310.6)BSkyH109-72W100%0.0
11-17Michigan St. (18.7)B10N79-73L0%0.0
11-24UCLA (69.9)P12N73-92W100%0.0
11-25Vanderbilt (53.1)SECN70-63W100%0.0
12-1Loyola MD (238.5)PatH94-61W100%0.0
12-5Harvard (208.9)IvyH75-69W100%0.0
12-9Holy Cross (286.1)PatH92-59W100%0.0
12-12Oregon St. (48.4)P12H82-67W100%0.0
12-19Montana (145.6)BSkyH88-46W100%0.0
12-22San Diego St. (52.7)MWCA57-70W100%0.0
12-29UC Irvine (75.8)BWH78-53W100%0.0
1-2Baylor (25.5)B12H102-74W100%0.0
1-4Oklahoma (3.0)B12H109-106W100%0.0
1-9Texas Tech (57.1)B12A59-69W100%0.0
1-12West Virginia (9.2)B12A74-63L0%0.0
1-16TCU (167.7)B12H70-63W100%0.0
1-19Oklahoma St. (148.9)B12A86-67L0%0.0
1-23Texas (28.7)B12H76-67W100%0.0
1-25Iowa St. (21.1)B12A85-72L0%0.0
1-30Kentucky (16.9)SECH90-84W100%0.0
2-3Kansas St. (70.4)B12H77-59W100%0.0
2-6TCU (167.7)B12A56-75W100%0.0
2-9West Virginia (9.2)B12H75-65W100%0.0
2-13Oklahoma (3.0)B12A0-039%-3.0
2-15Oklahoma St. (148.9)B12H0-091%14.3
2-20Kansas St. (70.4)B12A0-068%5.1
2-23Baylor (25.5)B12A0-057%1.9
2-27Texas Tech (57.1)B12H0-088%12.8
2-29Texas (28.7)B12A0-058%2.1
3-5Iowa St. (21.1)B12H0-075%7.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kansas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kansas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kansas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
KansasB1226.2526.3283.9181.0117.8016.32
West VirginiaB124.854.2381.8280.043.092.54
TexasB122.824.2369.5765.041.101.27
OklahomaB122.774.2390.9186.342.273.07
BaylorB122.774.2377.2771.811.511.84
Iowa St.B122.734.2069.5768.351.071.54
Kansas St.B122.734.2060.8759.070.590.76
Oklahoma St.B122.774.2043.4841.44-0.36-0.72
TCUB124.814.2050.0042.070.00-0.67
Texas TechB122.724.2063.6458.840.740.74
VanderbiltSEC2.311.8360.8761.970.500.44
Holy CrossPat2.271.7543.4841.01-0.30-0.32
UCLAP122.271.7556.5254.750.300.17
HarvardIvy2.271.7540.0040.57-0.45-0.33
KentuckySEC2.261.7578.2675.041.280.88
Northern ColoradoBSky2.231.7328.5727.44-0.95-0.78
MontanaBSky2.221.7363.1665.210.590.53
Loyola MDPat2.221.7234.7836.44-0.68-0.47
Oregon St.P122.221.7266.6760.950.740.38
San Diego St.MWC2.261.7272.7372.591.030.78
Michigan St.B102.171.6779.1780.941.271.03
UC IrvineBW2.171.6772.7372.440.990.75
Texas A&MSEC0.230.3075.0075.350.110.15
WashingtonP120.330.2862.5060.140.080.06
FloridaSEC0.270.2466.6766.320.090.08
Long Beach St.BW0.230.2247.8351.93-0.010.01
OregonP120.190.2079.1777.220.110.11
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.180.1924.0025.68-0.09-0.09
North DakotaBSky0.150.1845.0048.15-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.190.1756.0056.500.020.02
UtahP120.190.1770.8368.530.080.06
ColoradoP120.190.1770.8365.570.080.05
ColgatePat0.230.1743.4844.88-0.03-0.02
HawaiiBW0.140.1785.0083.450.100.11
AuburnSEC0.190.1639.1335.44-0.04-0.05
GeorgiaSEC0.140.1659.0955.160.030.02
TennesseeSEC0.180.1650.0048.120.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.190.1460.8760.430.040.03
Colorado St.MWC0.190.1454.5552.530.020.01
StanfordP120.140.1447.6244.07-0.01-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.140.1443.4843.76-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.140.1434.7831.64-0.04-0.05
LSUSEC0.140.1462.5059.070.030.02
MinnesotaB100.140.1425.0027.25-0.07-0.06
North CarolinaACC0.140.1383.3378.390.090.08
Montana St.BSky0.100.1243.4844.81-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.100.1266.6764.780.030.03
AmericanPat0.090.1129.1731.18-0.04-0.04
ArmyPat0.140.1154.1754.290.010.01
BucknellPat0.140.1152.1754.970.010.01
LafayettePat0.180.1120.8321.68-0.11-0.07
LehighPat0.140.1139.1342.83-0.03-0.02
NavyPat0.180.1164.0064.470.050.03
ColumbiaIvy0.100.1168.1865.570.040.04
USCP120.140.1175.0071.140.070.05
Arizona St.P120.140.1156.0053.630.020.01
Illinois St.MVC0.180.1156.0054.080.020.01
ArkansasSEC0.140.1150.0052.940.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.140.119.0917.13-0.11-0.07
RichmondA100.140.1156.5255.820.020.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.1173.9174.640.070.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.1150.0050.500.000.00
WisconsinB100.090.1162.5056.990.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.1114.2920.63-0.06-0.06
IowaB100.130.1179.1778.890.080.06
MississippiSEC0.140.1162.5058.940.030.02
MissouriSEC0.140.1133.3330.27-0.05-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.140.1152.0048.910.01-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.100.099.5212.09-0.08-0.07
Portland St.BSky0.110.0930.0035.92-0.04-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.110.0940.0045.19-0.02-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.160.0914.2914.92-0.11-0.07
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.100.0954.5555.550.010.01
IdahoBSky0.150.0956.5255.330.020.01
Idaho St.BSky0.100.0947.6248.05-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.100.0966.6769.760.030.04
San Jose St.MWC0.100.0923.8122.85-0.05-0.05
BrownIvy0.100.0930.0030.54-0.04-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.0960.8759.830.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.100.0933.3330.63-0.03-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.100.0945.8341.64-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.140.0945.4551.69-0.010.00
Utah St.MWC0.140.0947.6249.27-0.01-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.140.0829.1726.68-0.06-0.04
UNLVMWC0.090.0852.1755.080.000.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.090.0886.3684.240.070.06
ArizonaP120.140.0880.0078.730.080.05
TulsaAmer0.090.0866.6764.730.030.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0865.2268.610.030.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0845.0049.16-0.01-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.140.0856.0055.750.020.01
TowsonCAA0.090.0862.5057.720.020.01
Cal PolyBW0.090.0828.5734.10-0.04-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.090.0831.8230.08-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0822.2231.13-0.05-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.090.0860.8755.980.020.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.0850.0049.320.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.090.0845.8344.06-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0829.1733.75-0.04-0.03
MichiganB100.090.0870.8366.750.040.03
Ohio St.B100.050.0860.0055.570.010.01
CornellIvy0.050.0640.0039.00-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.100.0630.0031.18-0.04-0.02
PennIvy0.050.0636.8437.30-0.01-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0673.6875.880.020.03
YaleIvy0.000.0675.0075.100.000.03
GonzagaWCC0.100.0679.1777.510.060.03
PepperdineWCC0.100.0658.3360.910.020.01
NevadaMWC0.100.0657.1455.350.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.090.0634.7834.94-0.03-0.02
UMBCAE0.090.0623.0825.89-0.05-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.0641.6741.18-0.02-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0663.6461.560.030.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0658.3360.710.010.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0643.4842.54-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0640.0042.85-0.02-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.100.0648.0048.59-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.100.0672.0069.130.040.02
WoffordSC0.100.0645.8348.12-0.01-0.00
AlbanyAE0.090.0673.0873.770.040.03
NorthwesternB100.090.0664.0062.090.020.01
Stony BrookAE0.090.0682.6183.030.060.04
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0640.9138.83-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0623.8129.52-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.050.0664.0062.070.010.01
High PointBSth0.050.0657.1459.870.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0655.5652.480.010.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0650.0054.220.000.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0658.3359.310.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0617.6526.60-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0641.6742.39-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0638.1037.68-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0672.2275.710.020.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0645.4554.18-0.000.00
UC DavisBW0.050.0638.1035.34-0.01-0.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0687.5086.850.040.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.0535.0034.87-0.03-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0028.14-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0531.8236.13-0.03-0.01
BradleyMVC0.090.0512.0011.95-0.07-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.050.0554.1754.420.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0583.3383.710.030.04
Chicago St.WAC0.050.054.357.71-0.04-0.05
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0572.0071.570.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0570.8370.130.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.059.0912.25-0.07-0.04
George MasonA100.050.0533.3333.62-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.090.0550.0049.890.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.090.0572.0071.330.040.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0525.0026.38-0.05-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.050.0521.7424.59-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.0545.4549.06-0.01-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.090.0579.1776.000.050.03
MarshallCUSA0.090.0550.0051.150.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0537.5037.41-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0556.0055.450.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.090.0531.8235.12-0.03-0.02
Penn St.B100.040.0550.0046.760.00-0.00
PurdueB100.090.0580.0077.900.050.03
RutgersB100.040.0521.7420.33-0.02-0.03
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.7832.39-0.01-0.02
SamfordSC0.050.0540.0041.68-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.090.0586.9682.930.070.04
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0586.9680.430.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0552.1754.140.000.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0544.0043.56-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0514.2924.87-0.06-0.03
StetsonASun0.090.0522.7327.37-0.05-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0576.1972.410.020.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0528.5732.73-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0568.1871.340.020.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0513.0412.96-0.03-0.04
VirginiaACC0.090.0583.3378.460.060.03
Wake ForestACC0.090.0541.6739.90-0.02-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0352.1749.150.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.050.0324.0024.92-0.03-0.01
BYUWCC0.050.0368.0070.260.020.01
DenverSum0.050.0352.0049.300.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.050.0336.3638.95-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0360.8760.730.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0324.0024.16-0.03-0.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0343.4842.42-0.01-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0358.3358.580.010.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0327.2728.15-0.02-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0382.6183.030.030.02
VermontAE0.050.0352.0054.840.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0343.4837.80-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0341.6739.50-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0354.1754.100.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0383.3382.090.030.02
HartfordAE0.050.0324.0024.55-0.02-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0350.0051.280.000.00
MaineAE0.050.0332.0031.17-0.02-0.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0321.7424.25-0.03-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0342.3146.12-0.01-0.00
New HampshireAE0.050.0359.0956.880.010.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0318.1821.06-0.03-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0333.3336.30-0.02-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0330.4328.20-0.02-0.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0365.3864.920.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0372.7370.390.020.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0368.1865.190.020.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0372.0073.080.020.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0343.4850.67-0.010.00
PacificWCC0.050.0323.8125.99-0.02-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0381.8281.780.030.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0333.3332.04-0.02-0.01
UCFAmer0.050.0350.0044.640.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.040.0324.0026.42-0.02-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0387.5083.730.030.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0345.4543.88-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.050.0375.0071.810.020.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.040.0340.0043.21-0.01-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0326.0927.89-0.02-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0343.4845.20-0.01-0.00
IndianaB100.000.0380.0075.690.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0360.0062.260.010.01
MarylandB100.040.0387.5083.680.030.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0380.7781.890.030.02
NebraskaB100.040.0352.0050.770.000.00
NJITASun0.050.0356.0055.640.010.00
OaklandHorz0.040.0365.3865.500.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0320.0019.72-0.03-0.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0325.0023.43-0.02-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0331.8232.68-0.02-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0354.1753.810.000.00