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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Kansas

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:5.9
Current RPI:7
Expected SOS:2
Current SOS:2
Current Record:16-3
Expected Record:25-6
Current Conf Record:6-1
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:17
Expected OOC SOS:16



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-31.72.10%
27-42.59.10%
26-53.520.26%
25-64.926.15%
24-76.622.03%
23-89.113.04%
22-912.65.32%
21-1017.31.59%
20-1123.40.33%
19-1228.80.06%
18-1343.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kansas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Tennessee St. (212.9)OVCH92-56W100%0.0
11-14Kentucky (20.8)SECN65-61W100%0.0
11-17South Dakota St. (65.7)SumH98-64W100%0.0
11-21Texas Southern (208.4)SWACH114-71W100%0.0
11-24Oakland (137.7)HorzH102-59W100%0.0
11-28Toledo (70.7)MACH96-58W100%0.0
12-2Syracuse (43.7)ACCN60-76W100%0.0
12-6Washington (77.2)P12H65-74L0%0.0
12-10Arizona St. (31.9)P12H85-95L0%0.0
12-16Nebraska (100.4)B10A72-73W100%0.0
12-18Nebraska Omaha (250.6)SumH109-64W100%0.0
12-21Stanford (89.4)P12N54-75W100%0.0
12-29Texas (46.5)B12A86-92W100%0.0
1-2Texas Tech (25.9)B12H73-85L0%0.0
1-6TCU (28.3)B12A84-88W100%0.0
1-9Iowa St. (106.2)B12H83-78W100%0.0
1-13Kansas St. (67.2)B12H73-72W100%0.0
1-15West Virginia (15.9)B12A66-71W100%0.0
1-20Baylor (58.5)B12H70-67W100%0.0
1-23Oklahoma (22.4)B12A0-058%2.3
1-27Texas A&M (29.2)SECH0-081%9.8
1-29Kansas St. (67.2)B12A0-067%4.9
2-3Oklahoma St. (94.8)B12H0-089%13.8
2-6TCU (28.3)B12H0-080%9.2
2-10Baylor (58.5)B12A0-062%3.3
2-13Iowa St. (106.2)B12A0-080%9.6
2-17West Virginia (15.9)B12H0-065%4.4
2-19Oklahoma (22.4)B12H0-078%8.7
2-24Texas Tech (25.9)B12A0-053%0.8
2-26Texas (46.5)B12H0-084%10.9
3-3Oklahoma St. (94.8)B12A0-075%7.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kansas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kansas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kansas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
KansasB1226.3226.3076.9275.7914.1713.57
TCUB123.054.1277.7869.411.701.60
West VirginiaB122.914.1288.8982.362.272.67
TexasB123.064.1066.6761.031.020.90
Kansas St.B122.984.1077.7865.911.661.30
Oklahoma St.B120.354.0968.4256.590.130.54
OklahomaB120.414.0977.7870.480.231.68
BaylorB123.054.0964.7158.740.900.71
Texas TechB122.994.0777.7871.691.661.76
Iowa St.B122.984.0764.7149.940.88-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum2.841.8026.3229.05-1.35-0.76
Texas SouthernSWAC2.981.8022.2245.73-1.65-0.15
Texas A&MSEC0.141.7768.4265.480.050.55
Arizona St.P122.771.7477.7875.311.540.88
WashingtonP122.761.7268.4260.151.020.35
StanfordP122.771.7257.8952.050.440.07
KentuckySEC2.631.7277.7870.211.460.69
OaklandHorz2.841.6965.0067.340.850.59
SyracuseACC2.841.6972.2263.311.260.45
ToledoMAC2.831.6970.5970.021.170.68
South Dakota St.Sum2.701.6776.4775.771.430.86
Tennessee St.OVC2.701.6637.5042.03-0.68-0.27
NebraskaB102.631.6170.0061.781.050.38
Oral RobertsSum0.270.2530.0032.53-0.11-0.09
OregonP120.140.2165.0063.830.040.06
MissouriSEC0.140.2166.6763.200.050.06
VanderbiltSEC0.210.2136.8435.55-0.05-0.06
Washington St.P120.270.2150.0042.180.00-0.03
Wichita St.Amer0.150.1978.9577.360.080.10
USCP120.130.1871.4368.300.060.07
AlabamaSEC0.070.1868.4258.990.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.1868.4264.200.000.05
Western IllinoisSum0.210.1742.8635.25-0.03-0.05
Fort WayneSum0.200.1752.6351.700.010.01
South DakotaSum0.140.1773.6872.360.060.08
ColoradoP120.210.1660.0053.730.040.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.220.1612.5025.47-0.16-0.08
ArizonaP120.140.1680.0078.980.080.09
FloridaSEC0.140.1673.6871.550.060.07
TulsaAmer0.140.1655.0053.290.010.01
CaliforniaP120.200.1636.8431.12-0.05-0.06
PittsburghACC0.140.1640.0030.87-0.03-0.06
DenverSum0.200.1433.3336.47-0.07-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.210.1457.8953.190.030.01
BelmontOVC0.140.1471.4374.650.060.07
MississippiSEC0.070.1352.6345.860.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.190.1346.6746.98-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.130.1355.0050.370.010.00
Oregon St.P120.070.1357.8950.810.010.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.140.1327.7834.50-0.06-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.070.1372.2268.920.030.05
UtahP120.140.1361.1158.950.030.02
UCLAP120.200.1365.0062.040.060.03
Boston CollegeACC0.130.1368.4255.060.050.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.1244.4450.31-0.010.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.150.1116.6724.29-0.10-0.06
IowaB100.150.1147.6244.03-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.220.1172.2274.900.100.05
UC IrvineBW0.210.1130.0039.93-0.08-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.210.1116.6724.91-0.14-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.210.1138.8943.43-0.05-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.1161.1158.750.000.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.1141.1839.13-0.01-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.140.1145.0047.05-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.117.1414.82-0.06-0.07
SouthernSWAC0.140.1127.7840.97-0.06-0.02
WisconsinB100.140.1150.0046.260.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.140.1026.3228.14-0.07-0.05
GeorgiaSEC0.070.1066.6755.930.020.01
GonzagaWCC0.200.1080.9583.260.130.07
Long Beach St.BW0.200.1040.0043.34-0.04-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.100.0010.65-0.07-0.08
NevadaMWC0.140.1085.7182.070.100.07
South CarolinaSEC0.070.1061.1151.900.020.00
VirginiaACC0.140.1094.4485.440.120.07
DrakeMVC0.200.0955.0049.070.02-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.140.0929.4133.94-0.06-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0844.4445.98-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.150.0852.9459.360.010.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.150.0842.1143.50-0.02-0.01
UMKCWAC0.140.0821.0524.71-0.08-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.140.0877.7869.360.080.03
New MexicoMWC0.140.0845.0048.56-0.01-0.00
XavierBE0.140.0885.7180.080.100.05
CreightonBE0.140.0875.0070.690.070.03
North TexasCUSA0.060.0844.4446.64-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.060.0841.1839.65-0.01-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.140.0852.9452.230.010.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.140.0820.0023.36-0.08-0.04
DetroitHorz0.140.0821.0525.98-0.08-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.140.0811.1115.30-0.11-0.05
Wright St.Horz0.140.0868.4269.240.050.03
DukeACC0.070.0889.4785.190.050.05
Florida St.ACC0.070.0873.6869.610.030.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.130.0842.1145.97-0.02-0.01
LSUSEC0.070.0861.1153.160.020.00
MaristMAAC0.130.0821.0521.99-0.08-0.04
MichiganB100.130.0875.0070.270.070.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.060.0866.6773.240.020.04
Ohio St.B100.140.0880.9576.520.080.04
Penn St.B100.060.0861.9055.770.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0810.5318.340.00-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0821.0539.47-0.04-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.140.0866.6768.700.050.03
UCFAmer0.130.0868.4260.880.050.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0845.0045.020.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.200.0868.4257.780.080.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0631.5832.720.00-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0670.0068.220.030.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0623.5328.700.00-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0636.8432.79-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.130.0650.0047.670.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.140.0629.4134.76-0.06-0.02
PurdueB100.140.0690.4888.380.110.04
WyomingMWC0.140.0661.1156.830.030.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0570.5969.610.030.02
AkronMAC0.070.0547.0644.91-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0533.3337.22-0.02-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.070.0578.9576.970.040.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0545.0049.27-0.01-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0562.5058.700.020.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0515.7920.92-0.05-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0547.0652.51-0.000.00
OhioMAC0.070.0547.0648.44-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.000.0527.7827.300.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0543.7549.10-0.01-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.057.6923.28-0.06-0.03
CornellIvy0.140.0533.3333.36-0.05-0.02
PacificWCC0.140.0545.0044.46-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.140.0550.0048.740.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.130.0547.3742.18-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0552.9452.620.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.0510.5316.750.00-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0530.0036.480.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0589.4777.030.000.03
ButlerBE0.070.0566.6763.070.020.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0523.5325.630.00-0.03
ClemsonACC0.070.0584.2173.210.050.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.059.5217.94-0.06-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.130.0538.8946.03-0.03-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0510.0019.62-0.06-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0537.5037.68-0.02-0.01
FordhamA100.070.0531.5829.06-0.03-0.02
George WashingtonA100.070.0545.0043.49-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0536.8444.12-0.02-0.01
Green BayHorz0.060.0525.0027.94-0.03-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.055.8819.370.00-0.03
IllinoisB100.060.0547.3744.27-0.00-0.01
IUPUIHorz0.000.0527.7829.840.00-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0526.6729.04-0.03-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0552.6355.290.000.01
MaineAE0.070.0510.5314.86-0.05-0.04
MarylandB100.070.0570.0065.320.030.02
Michigan St.B100.130.0585.0083.180.090.03
MinnesotaB100.060.0563.6457.640.020.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0572.2258.940.000.01
MontanaBSky0.130.0570.5973.140.050.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0529.4139.62-0.03-0.01
New HampshireAE0.070.0529.4138.15-0.03-0.01
NJITASun0.070.0538.8942.60-0.02-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.070.0580.0075.050.040.03
RiceCUSA0.070.0511.1117.69-0.05-0.03
RutgersB100.000.0557.8947.140.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.070.0575.0067.890.030.02
SMUAmer0.070.0570.0070.630.030.02
South AlabamaSB0.070.0550.0045.900.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.070.0511.1117.96-0.05-0.03
VCUA100.070.0560.0059.690.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0544.4441.15-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.070.0564.7159.980.020.01
WoffordSC0.070.0568.7563.620.030.01
YaleIvy0.070.0541.1847.51-0.01-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0521.0523.50-0.04-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0360.0060.340.020.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0372.2274.700.030.01
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0370.0068.420.030.01
Murray St.OVC0.080.0370.5975.930.030.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0355.5656.710.010.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0326.3231.52-0.04-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0327.7831.12-0.03-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0358.8249.760.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0343.7540.93-0.01-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.070.0344.4444.86-0.01-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.070.0317.6517.23-0.04-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.070.0368.4263.640.030.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0347.0641.450.00-0.00
PennIvy0.070.0364.7162.780.020.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0350.0051.650.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0358.8262.830.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0350.0052.440.000.00
BYUWCC0.070.0380.9576.230.040.01
Cal PolyBW0.070.0323.5328.21-0.03-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.060.030.003.12-0.06-0.02
ColgatePat0.070.0350.0051.040.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0352.6347.390.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.030.009.15-0.06-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0377.7879.160.040.02
GeorgetownBE0.070.0368.4254.090.030.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0352.6343.120.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.070.0337.5046.63-0.02-0.00
IndianaB100.000.0357.8950.680.000.00
IonaMAAC0.070.0363.1666.880.020.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0327.7829.11-0.03-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0376.4769.020.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0327.7840.88-0.03-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0337.5045.22-0.02-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0368.4257.770.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.070.0363.1663.180.020.01
Notre DameACC0.070.0363.1661.050.020.01
Portland St.BSky0.070.0358.8263.210.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.070.0370.0060.460.030.01
SeattleWAC0.070.0357.8954.500.010.00
StetsonASun0.060.0333.3336.92-0.02-0.01
TowsonCAA0.060.0363.1666.000.020.01
TroySB0.070.0335.2942.76-0.02-0.00
UC DavisBW0.070.0358.8262.450.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0366.6766.010.020.01
VermontAE0.070.0373.6877.120.030.01