live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Bracket Busters - Blog


Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Kansas

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:8.8
Current RPI:8
Expected SOS:6
Current SOS:4
Current Record:18-5
Expected Record:24-7
Current Conf Record:8-2
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Probability of Auto Bid:40.23%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:33
Expected OOC SOS:27



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-54.712.25%
25-66.732.41%
24-79.033.30%
23-812.416.93%
22-917.64.50%
21-1024.40.57%
20-1132.00.03%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kansas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Towson (304.8)CAAH100-54W100%0.0
11-15Kentucky (4.3)SECN75-65L0%0.0
11-21Georgetown (13.9)BEN67-63W100%0.0
11-22UCLA (109.2)P12N72-56W100%0.0
11-23Duke (4.2)ACCN68-61L0%0.0
11-30Florida Atlantic (179.8)SBH77-54W100%0.0
12-3South Florida (96.1)BEH70-42W100%0.0
12-6Long Beach St. (39.1)BWH88-80W100%0.0
12-10Ohio St. (3.4)B10H78-67W100%0.0
12-19Davidson (64.0)SCN74-80L0%0.0
12-22Southern California (232.8)P12A47-63W100%0.0
12-29Howard (313.9)MEACH89-34W100%0.0
12-31North Dakota (266.8)GWCH84-58W100%0.0
1-4Kansas St. (45.9)B12H67-49W100%0.0
1-7Oklahoma (89.8)B12A61-72W100%0.0
1-11Texas Tech (233.7)B12A46-81W100%0.0
1-14Iowa St. (39.6)B12H82-73W100%0.0
1-16Baylor (6.8)B12H92-74W100%0.0
1-21Texas (58.4)B12A66-69W100%0.0
1-23Texas A&M (154.9)B12H64-54W100%0.0
1-28Iowa St. (39.6)B12A72-64L0%0.0
2-1Oklahoma (89.8)B12H84-62W100%0.0
2-4Missouri (11.7)B12A74-71L0%0.0
2-8Baylor (6.8)B12A0-052%0.6
2-11Oklahoma St. (120.3)B12H0-095%17.6
2-13Kansas St. (45.9)B12A0-062%3.3
2-18Texas Tech (233.7)B12H0-099%27.4
2-22Texas A&M (154.9)B12A0-087%12.2
2-25Missouri (11.7)B12H0-069%5.5
2-27Oklahoma St. (120.3)B12A0-084%10.9
3-3Texas (58.4)B12H0-082%9.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kansas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kansas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kansas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
KansasB1226.3326.3277.8978.6614.6915.09
Kansas St.B122.814.1476.1971.791.471.80
TexasB122.714.1163.6464.970.741.23
Iowa St.B124.744.0876.1969.702.481.61
MissouriB122.664.0890.9188.682.183.16
BaylorB122.574.0895.2488.132.323.11
OklahomaB124.744.0865.0058.611.420.70
Oklahoma St.B120.594.0845.4542.85-0.05-0.58
Texas TechB122.614.0833.3327.82-0.87-1.81
Texas A&MB122.664.0855.0049.080.27-0.08
UCLAP122.271.7257.1458.750.320.30
HowardMEAC2.281.7019.0523.04-1.41-0.91
South FloridaBE2.281.6757.1450.280.330.01
GeorgetownBE2.271.6785.0080.251.591.01
DukeACC2.271.6785.7182.531.621.08
Long Beach St.BW2.221.6775.0076.061.110.87
Southern CaliforniaP122.221.6726.0925.97-1.06-0.80
Florida AtlanticSB2.221.6438.1041.19-0.53-0.29
DavidsonSC2.221.6475.0075.901.110.85
Ohio St.B102.221.6490.9188.311.821.26
KentuckySEC2.171.6195.6592.321.981.37
North DakotaGWC2.171.6135.2943.03-0.64-0.22
TowsonCAA2.171.614.175.43-1.99-1.44
St. John'sBE0.250.2243.4840.28-0.03-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.100.2156.5255.200.010.02
Old DominionCAA0.280.1960.0058.290.060.03
MichiganB100.280.1872.7366.810.130.06
PittsburghBE0.100.1760.8758.160.020.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.150.1678.2672.340.090.07
ProvidenceBE0.200.1656.5250.270.030.00
West VirginiaBE0.150.1665.2265.170.050.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.1618.1821.13-0.06-0.09
AlabamaSEC0.150.1668.1869.100.050.06
WashingtonP120.190.1669.5766.540.080.05
Oregon St.P120.230.1663.6463.160.060.04
RiceCUSA0.190.1647.6246.46-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.090.1669.5768.290.040.06
Washington St.P120.190.1650.0048.170.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.140.1686.9683.160.110.11
CaliforniaP120.140.1675.0074.610.070.08
Coppin St.MEAC0.190.1442.1149.81-0.03-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.200.1410.0014.93-0.16-0.10
North TexasSB0.100.1350.0050.010.000.00
VillanovaBE0.100.1345.4546.08-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.100.1382.6177.630.060.07
Idaho St.BSky0.220.1233.3333.88-0.07-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.110.1181.8281.030.070.07
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1120.0019.96-0.06-0.07
TroySB0.100.1128.5730.17-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleBE0.150.1178.2672.660.080.05
NC GreensboroSC0.200.1134.7833.46-0.06-0.04
CincinnatiBE0.150.1169.5765.470.060.03
DePaulBE0.150.1150.0042.830.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.1147.0650.75-0.010.00
San Diego St.MWC0.150.1185.7178.050.100.06
Notre DameBE0.100.1165.2262.650.030.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.1126.3229.79-0.05-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.150.1180.7780.750.090.07
IndianaB100.190.1175.0075.780.090.06
William & MaryCAA0.140.1112.5013.44-0.11-0.08
ArizonaP120.090.1166.6768.550.030.04
Arizona St.P120.090.1130.4331.43-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.100.1161.9055.140.020.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.150.1155.0054.480.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.140.1135.0040.78-0.04-0.02
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.100.1176.1975.940.050.05
Wake ForestACC0.100.1147.8343.66-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.090.1072.7364.430.040.03
South CarolinaSEC0.180.1040.9139.56-0.03-0.02
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.110.0933.3338.38-0.04-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.110.0919.0524.61-0.07-0.05
AmericanPat0.150.0965.2263.790.050.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.160.0930.0033.20-0.06-0.03
Georgia SouthernSC0.100.0840.0041.30-0.02-0.01
MarquetteBE0.100.0879.1775.980.060.04
Middle TennesseeSB0.100.0883.3384.760.070.06
UC DavisBW0.100.080.005.37-0.10-0.08
UC IrvineBW0.100.0835.0035.26-0.03-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.088.708.99-0.08-0.07
Cal PolyBW0.150.0850.0056.760.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.150.0821.0522.46-0.09-0.05
ChattanoogaSC0.150.0827.2735.02-0.07-0.03
SamfordSC0.100.0833.3335.26-0.03-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.100.0842.8639.66-0.01-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0838.1042.78-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.150.0856.5248.810.02-0.00
PennsylvaniaIvy0.150.0854.5556.840.010.01
DelawareCAA0.090.0847.8350.65-0.000.00
George MasonCAA0.140.0876.0072.500.070.04
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0869.5765.870.020.03
Western CarolinaSC0.150.0834.7837.24-0.04-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.140.0869.5765.150.060.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.0819.0525.52-0.06-0.04
North FloridaASun0.100.0845.8346.68-0.01-0.01
Texas ChristianMWC0.090.0857.1449.540.01-0.00
Penn St.B100.140.0841.6738.67-0.02-0.02
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.090.0880.0078.060.060.04
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0845.4541.20-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.140.0854.1749.440.01-0.00
Michigan St.B100.050.0876.1972.910.030.04
NebraskaB100.140.0852.3846.680.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0870.8364.420.020.02
TempleA100.100.0877.2775.060.050.04
TennesseeSEC0.140.0845.4544.66-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.GWC0.060.064.769.95-0.05-0.05
Houston BaptistGWC0.060.0625.0028.52-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.120.0673.9175.490.060.03
Utah ValleyGWC0.060.0654.5557.690.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.120.0652.6348.410.01-0.00
MontanaBSky0.110.0670.0073.280.040.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0665.0066.700.020.02
College of CharlestonSC0.050.0658.3359.980.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0635.2939.85-0.01-0.01
Florida InternationalSB0.100.0633.3337.16-0.03-0.01
FurmanSC0.100.0647.6248.83-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.100.0636.3638.48-0.03-0.01
MemphisCUSA0.100.0669.5771.510.040.02
PacificBW0.050.0635.0037.47-0.02-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.0652.3857.860.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0652.3852.870.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0655.5658.010.010.01
Western KentuckySB0.050.0634.7834.48-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.050.0659.0957.930.010.01
The CitadelSC0.050.069.5211.44-0.04-0.04
ConnecticutBE0.100.0668.1863.990.040.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0619.0522.37-0.03-0.03
RichmondA100.100.0650.0048.490.00-0.00
RutgersBE0.100.0650.0046.810.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0665.2263.740.020.02
SyracuseBE0.000.0695.8392.010.000.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0616.6723.02-0.03-0.03
LibertyBSth0.050.0627.2727.21-0.02-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.050.0645.0046.13-0.01-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.090.0543.4844.25-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.CAA0.090.0566.6769.690.030.02
HofstraCAA0.090.0532.0035.39-0.03-0.02
MassachusettsA100.100.0573.9168.580.050.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0565.0060.020.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0525.0037.58-0.02-0.01
NC WilmingtonCAA0.100.0539.1336.10-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.090.0521.7421.70-0.05-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.100.0540.9143.66-0.02-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0517.3924.41-0.00-0.03
Brigham YoungWCC0.050.0575.0076.000.020.03
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.050.0547.8347.87-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0555.0060.330.000.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0534.7832.08-0.02-0.02
GramblingSWAC0.050.0515.0015.73-0.03-0.04
HoustonCUSA0.100.0547.6244.63-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0556.5254.220.010.00
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.050.0519.0521.29-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0554.1757.200.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.0528.5726.30-0.04-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0527.7829.58-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0534.7832.06-0.02-0.02
Southern MethodistCUSA0.000.0538.1037.86-0.00-0.01
St. LouisA100.100.0577.2777.670.050.03
St. Mary'sWCC0.050.0590.9187.740.040.04
Texas El PasoCUSA0.050.0543.4843.31-0.01-0.01
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.000.0557.1460.750.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0531.8242.13-0.02-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.000.0560.8759.050.000.01
ColoradoP120.090.0566.6762.650.030.01
MaristMAAC0.090.0534.7833.43-0.03-0.02
OregonP120.090.0569.5764.530.040.02
UtahP120.090.0518.1815.01-0.06-0.04
VermontAE0.090.0560.0062.490.020.01
BelmontASun0.090.0569.5773.280.040.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.050.004.02-0.05-0.05
Boston UniversityAE0.050.0548.0051.88-0.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0528.5734.20-0.04-0.02
DrakeMVC0.090.0552.1750.090.000.00
DrexelCAA0.090.0579.1778.100.050.03
Florida St.ACC0.050.0572.7371.710.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0540.0040.18-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.058.7011.67-0.04-0.04
LamarSlnd0.090.0561.9067.230.020.02
LehighPat0.090.0573.9174.910.050.03
LipscombASun0.090.0543.4843.82-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.050.0559.0950.820.010.00
MercerASun0.050.0570.8371.640.020.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0569.5761.310.020.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0550.0058.160.000.01
NavyPat0.050.059.5213.19-0.04-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0537.5041.54-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0525.0023.75-0.02-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.040.0547.8348.56-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.0530.0031.54-0.04-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0562.5061.500.020.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0520.8320.60-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0547.6247.18-0.00-0.00
Texas St.Slnd0.050.0522.2227.62-0.03-0.02
VirginiaACC0.090.0581.8276.800.060.03
WisconsinB100.050.0575.0073.970.020.02
BradleyMVC0.060.0324.0024.86-0.03-0.02
Longwoodind0.000.0330.0027.84-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.000.0342.8643.45-0.00-0.00
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.060.0334.7835.20-0.02-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0361.9063.520.010.01
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0335.0039.29-0.02-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0337.5038.33-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0342.8641.13-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0347.6248.82-0.00-0.00
CharlotteA100.050.0350.0049.450.00-0.00
CreightonMVC0.000.0387.5085.410.000.02
DenverSB0.000.0370.8372.230.000.01
ElonSC0.000.0350.0047.590.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0390.4887.910.040.02
IdahoWAC0.050.0347.6251.08-0.000.00
IUPUISum0.050.0334.7835.50-0.02-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0354.1754.750.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0368.1869.680.020.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0333.3337.25-0.02-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0338.8943.93-0.01-0.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0337.5038.52-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0345.4545.55-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0356.5255.950.010.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0382.6180.420.000.02
XavierA100.050.0365.2263.740.020.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0381.8280.430.030.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0340.9144.03-0.01-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0359.0957.760.010.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0331.8233.83-0.02-0.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.050.0385.7182.180.040.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0330.4326.44-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0350.0048.360.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0366.6760.800.020.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0339.1342.12-0.01-0.00
La SalleA100.040.0370.8368.820.020.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.050.0359.0957.280.010.00
Loyola MDMAAC0.050.0377.2773.450.020.01
ManhattanMAAC0.040.0368.0069.070.020.01
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.040.0313.6416.35-0.03-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0330.0034.15-0.02-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0363.6456.710.000.00
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.050.0382.6181.440.030.02
New HampshireAE0.000.0335.0038.58-0.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0365.2260.580.000.01
RadfordBSth0.050.038.7013.10-0.04-0.02
South Carolina UpstateASun0.050.0354.5556.090.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0365.2263.610.010.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.050.0345.0044.15-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0340.9142.96-0.01-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.050.0341.6740.61-0.01-0.00