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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Kansas

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:4.9
Current RPI:12
Expected SOS:3
Current SOS:49
Current Record:3-0
Expected Record:26-5
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-0
Current OOC Record:3-0
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:2
Expected OOC SOS:18



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
31-01.00.12%
30-11.01.32%
29-21.14.84%
28-31.411.14%
27-41.917.63%
26-53.020.29%
25-64.718.03%
24-77.313.22%
23-810.87.54%
22-915.43.79%
21-1021.51.47%
20-1126.80.40%
19-1233.60.15%
18-1346.80.04%
16-1553.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kansas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Tennessee St. (185.2)OVCH92-56W100%0.0
11-14Kentucky (15.3)SECN65-61W100%0.0
11-17South Dakota St. (116.5)SumH98-64W100%0.0
11-21Texas Southern (177.8)SWACH0-099%29.5
11-24Oakland (109.5)HorzH0-097%21.9
11-28Toledo (81.7)MACH0-097%21.9
12-2Syracuse (45.7)ACCN0-082%10.8
12-6Washington (146.1)P12N0-095%19.6
12-10Arizona St. (66.7)P12H0-090%15.5
12-16Nebraska (165.0)B10A0-092%16.8
12-18Nebraska Omaha (243.1)SumH0-099%29.7
12-21Stanford (98.1)P12N0-091%16.1
12-29Texas (42.7)B12A0-064%4.4
1-2Texas Tech (67.9)B12H0-084%11.9
1-6TCU (44.2)B12A0-069%6.0
1-9Iowa St. (151.6)B12H0-095%19.4
1-13Kansas St. (67.2)B12H0-084%11.9
1-15West Virginia (33.4)B12A0-052%0.6
1-20Baylor (41.9)B12H0-081%10.4
1-23Oklahoma (39.9)B12A0-064%4.3
1-27Texas A&M (19.6)SECH0-078%9.4
1-29Kansas St. (67.2)B12A0-069%5.9
2-3Oklahoma St. (64.7)B12H0-084%11.8
2-6TCU (44.2)B12H0-084%12.0
2-10Baylor (41.9)B12A0-064%4.4
2-13Iowa St. (151.6)B12A0-087%13.4
2-17West Virginia (33.4)B12H0-071%6.6
2-19Oklahoma (39.9)B12H0-081%10.3
2-24Texas Tech (67.9)B12A0-069%5.9
2-26Texas (42.7)B12H0-081%10.4
3-3Oklahoma St. (64.7)B12A0-069%5.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kansas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kansas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kansas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
KansasB1234.0326.35100.0082.1734.0316.95
TCUB120.004.16100.0063.860.001.15
West VirginiaB120.004.1666.6773.610.001.96
Kansas St.B120.004.14100.0065.730.001.30
Oklahoma St.B120.004.14100.0062.090.001.00
TexasB120.004.13100.0066.530.001.37
BaylorB120.004.13100.0063.600.001.12
OklahomaB120.004.13100.0062.560.001.04
Texas TechB120.004.11100.0065.420.001.27
Iowa St.B120.004.1050.0040.910.00-0.75
Nebraska OmahaSum0.001.810.0037.060.00-0.47
Texas SouthernSWAC0.001.800.0052.020.000.07
Texas A&MSEC0.001.77100.0072.710.000.81
Arizona St.P120.001.75100.0064.650.000.51
WashingtonP120.001.7350.0048.200.00-0.06
KentuckySEC16.671.72100.0074.2216.670.83
StanfordP120.001.7275.0051.320.000.05
OaklandHorz0.001.6966.6767.700.000.60
SyracuseACC0.001.69100.0063.700.000.46
ToledoMAC0.001.69100.0066.220.000.55
South Dakota St.Sum16.671.67100.0064.0716.670.47
Tennessee St.OVC16.671.670.0048.19-16.67-0.06
NebraskaB100.001.6166.6741.220.00-0.28
Oral RobertsSum0.000.260.0023.260.00-0.14
Washington St.P120.000.22100.0041.780.00-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.000.2166.6749.990.00-0.00
Wichita St.Amer0.000.20100.0082.290.000.13
USCP120.000.19100.0073.190.000.09
AlabamaSEC0.000.19100.0061.320.000.04
ArkansasSEC0.000.19100.0071.180.000.08
Western IllinoisSum0.000.18100.0038.710.00-0.04
South DakotaSum0.000.1866.6767.630.000.06
Fort WayneSum0.000.1766.6756.330.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.17100.0052.860.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.16100.0083.700.000.11
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.160.0037.120.00-0.04
CaliforniaP120.000.1666.6740.170.00-0.03
TulsaAmer0.000.1650.0048.690.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.16100.0080.230.000.10
OregonP120.000.16100.0076.200.000.08
MissouriSEC0.000.1666.6757.890.000.03
DenverSum0.000.150.0038.100.00-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1450.0039.640.00-0.03
MississippiSEC0.000.14100.0053.790.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.1475.0071.560.000.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.140.0025.140.00-0.07
Oregon St.P120.000.1466.6742.260.00-0.02
UCLAP120.000.14100.0064.910.000.04
UtahP120.000.14100.0067.160.000.05
TennesseeSEC0.000.13100.0048.350.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1375.0045.290.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.13100.0053.280.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1233.3353.520.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC2.780.110.0026.18-2.78-0.05
UC IrvineBW2.780.1133.3353.30-0.930.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.110.0022.920.00-0.06
Ball St.MAC0.000.1133.3345.540.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.1166.6766.970.000.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.110.0031.380.00-0.04
AmericanPat0.000.110.0030.350.00-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.11100.0050.450.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.11100.0060.010.000.02
PittsburghACC0.000.1133.3334.560.00-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.110.0044.630.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.11100.0074.140.000.05
NevadaMWC0.000.11100.0078.910.000.06
GeorgiaSEC0.000.11100.0053.240.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1175.0058.930.000.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.110.0018.970.00-0.07
DrakeMVC0.000.0950.0035.740.00-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0933.3341.010.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.090.0026.150.00-0.04
LipscombASun0.000.0933.3349.220.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0950.0036.640.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0975.0055.040.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0933.3338.350.00-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.080.0029.880.00-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.080.0036.490.00-0.02
IowaB100.000.08100.0058.250.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0850.0051.070.000.00
MichiganB100.000.08100.0061.710.000.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0850.0050.570.000.00
CornellIvy0.000.0833.3334.680.00-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.080.0024.440.00-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.000.08100.0066.990.000.03
PepperdineWCC0.000.080.0031.910.00-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0850.0035.330.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.08100.0061.010.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.08100.0068.200.000.03
LSUSEC0.000.08100.0046.080.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0833.3353.190.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0833.3333.580.00-0.03
DetroitHorz0.000.080.0029.290.00-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.080.0044.500.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.08100.0070.960.000.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.080.0041.210.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.080.0033.850.00-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0850.0048.410.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0875.0061.940.000.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.0666.6746.830.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0650.0052.380.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0650.0068.280.000.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0633.3336.610.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0633.3329.980.00-0.02
WyomingMWC0.000.06100.0057.360.000.01
PurdueB100.000.06100.0085.360.000.04
Montana St.BSky0.000.0633.3350.350.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0633.3350.220.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.060.0028.720.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.000.0675.0052.360.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0035.610.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0022.840.00-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0018.400.00-0.04
FordhamA100.000.0633.3336.170.00-0.02
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0059.240.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.06100.0063.590.000.02
MaristMAAC0.000.060.0023.830.00-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0028.770.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.000.06100.0071.700.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0633.3335.150.00-0.02
New HampshireAE0.000.060.0048.110.00-0.00
NJITASun0.000.0633.3333.210.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0666.6763.220.000.01
PacificWCC0.000.060.0033.520.00-0.02
Penn St.B100.000.06100.0060.400.000.01
RutgersB100.000.06100.0046.880.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.060.0047.180.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0666.6756.400.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0054.590.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.060.0046.000.00-0.00
VCUA100.000.0666.6766.590.000.02
XavierBE0.000.06100.0078.990.000.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0533.3351.560.000.00
MarylandB100.000.05100.0071.740.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0550.0077.820.000.03
MontanaBSky0.000.0550.0060.130.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.05100.0078.160.000.03
Ohio St.B100.000.05100.0059.870.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.050.0036.830.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.05100.0060.370.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.050.0048.610.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.050.0045.640.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.050.0032.130.00-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.050.0038.960.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0533.3346.880.00-0.00
MaineAE0.000.050.0013.450.00-0.04
OhioMAC0.000.0533.3348.480.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0533.3336.410.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.05100.0067.950.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.05100.0076.260.000.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.0533.3345.780.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0533.3335.210.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.050.0039.740.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0525.0054.930.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.050.0039.010.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0566.6750.670.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.05100.0051.080.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.050.0022.610.00-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.050.0023.910.00-0.03
ClemsonACC0.000.05100.0054.960.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.05100.0086.180.000.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.050.0032.770.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.000.050.0044.830.00-0.01
IUPUIHorz0.000.050.0032.200.00-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0525.0035.000.00-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.050.0027.250.00-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0366.6763.230.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0333.3346.330.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA4.170.0366.6768.321.390.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0066.530.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0366.6748.280.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0325.0050.070.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0333.3342.010.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0333.3338.050.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0067.460.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.030.0021.590.00-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.000.030.0028.170.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0333.3341.220.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.030.0017.060.00-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0350.0049.480.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0350.0062.630.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.0333.3333.620.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.03100.0061.780.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0366.6748.040.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.03100.0066.010.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0366.6749.100.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.03100.0039.920.00-0.01
PennIvy0.000.0333.3349.350.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0366.6759.540.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.030.0035.450.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.0366.6767.320.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.007.670.00-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.0350.0050.310.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.03100.0056.360.000.00
DukeACC0.000.03100.0083.580.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC2.080.0333.3357.84-0.690.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0058.070.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.030.0057.520.000.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0333.3354.200.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0325.0059.770.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0350.0034.730.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0074.500.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0366.6759.740.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0042.810.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0054.680.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0073.730.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0375.0064.570.000.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0333.3350.150.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0350.0054.450.000.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0350.0066.710.000.01
TroySB0.000.0333.3346.410.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.000.0366.6757.400.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC2.080.0350.0060.430.000.01
VermontAE2.080.0366.6774.120.690.01