NJIT

Conference:	ASun
Expected RPI:	269.0
Current RPI:	269
Expected SOS:	296
Current SOS:	296
Current Record:	12-16
Expected Record:	12-16
Current Conf Record:	7-8
Expected Conf Record:	7-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-7
Current OOC Record:	5-8
Expected OOC Record:	5-8
Expected OOC RPI:	237
Expected OOC SOS:	143

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-16	269.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for NJIT.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Wagner (109.0)	NEC	H	49-60	L	0%
11-14	Lafayette (311.0)	Pat	H	96-80	W	100%
11-18	Seton Hall (31.0)	BE	A	82-53	L	0%
11-25	Drexel (242.0)	CAA	H	65-53	W	100%
11-28	LIU Brooklyn (232.0)	NEC	H	73-69	W	100%
11-30	West Virginia (27.0)	B12	A	102-69	L	0%
12-3	UMass Lowell (289.0)	AE	H	78-65	W	100%
12-7	Rutgers (203.0)	B10	A	73-64	L	0%
12-9	Iona (107.0)	MAAC	H	70-74	L	0%
12-12	Colgate (185.0)	Pat	A	87-76	L	0%
12-16	Fairleigh Dickinson (254.0)	NEC	H	71-68	W	100%
12-28	Buffalo (25.0)	MAC	A	86-81	L	0%
1-3	Brown (298.0)	Ivy	A	70-69	L	0%
1-6	USC Upstate (344.0)	ASun	H	98-87	W	100%
1-11	Stetson (325.0)	ASun	A	80-67	L	0%
1-13	Florida Gulf Coast (172.0)	ASun	A	68-54	L	0%
1-18	North Florida (218.0)	ASun	H	91-59	W	100%
1-20	Jacksonville (286.0)	ASun	H	61-63	L	0%
1-24	Kennesaw St. (301.0)	ASun	A	60-66	W	100%
1-27	Lipscomb (101.0)	ASun	H	79-86	L	0%
1-29	Kennesaw St. (301.0)	ASun	H	74-71	W	100%
2-3	Lipscomb (101.0)	ASun	A	77-81	W	100%
2-8	Florida Gulf Coast (172.0)	ASun	H	70-75	L	0%
2-10	Stetson (325.0)	ASun	H	80-84	L	0%
2-15	Jacksonville (286.0)	ASun	A	69-71	W	100%
2-17	North Florida (218.0)	ASun	A	86-75	L	0%
2-22	USC Upstate (344.0)	ASun	A	67-76	W	100%
2-26	North Florida (218.0)	ASun	H	76-80	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

NJIT's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

NJIT's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against NJIT.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
NJIT	ASun	26.39	26.39	40.63	40.63	-4.95	-4.95
North Florida	ASun	6.16	6.16	33.33	33.33	-2.05	-2.05
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	4.59	4.59	62.07	62.07	1.11	1.11
Lipscomb	ASun	4.55	4.55	70.37	70.37	1.86	1.86
Jacksonville	ASun	4.50	4.50	37.04	37.04	-1.17	-1.17
Kennesaw St.	ASun	4.43	4.43	30.77	30.77	-1.70	-1.70
Stetson	ASun	4.43	4.43	23.08	23.08	-2.38	-2.38
USC Upstate	ASun	4.42	4.42	11.54	11.54	-3.40	-3.40
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	2.03	2.03	53.12	53.12	0.13	0.13
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	2.01	2.01	39.29	39.29	-0.43	-0.43
Wagner	NEC	1.99	1.99	68.97	68.97	0.75	0.75
Lafayette	Pat	1.90	1.90	31.03	31.03	-0.72	-0.72
UMass Lowell	AE	1.88	1.88	39.29	39.29	-0.40	-0.40
Colgate	Pat	1.88	1.88	56.67	56.67	0.25	0.25
Seton Hall	BE	1.87	1.87	64.52	64.52	0.54	0.54
Rutgers	B10	1.84	1.84	40.62	40.62	-0.35	-0.35
Brown	Ivy	1.84	1.84	36.00	36.00	-0.52	-0.52
Iona	MAAC	1.82	1.82	59.38	59.38	0.34	0.34
Drexel	CAA	1.82	1.82	38.71	38.71	-0.41	-0.41
Buffalo	MAC	1.79	1.79	75.00	75.00	0.89	0.89
West Virginia	B12	1.79	1.79	69.70	69.70	0.70	0.70
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.30	0.30	43.75	43.75	-0.04	-0.04
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.29	0.29	37.93	37.93	-0.07	-0.07
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.26	0.26	53.33	53.33	0.02	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.26	0.26	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.24	0.24	9.68	9.68	-0.19	-0.19
Navy	Pat	0.24	0.24	61.29	61.29	0.05	0.05
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.24	0.24	30.00	30.00	-0.09	-0.09
Marist	MAAC	0.21	0.21	19.35	19.35	-0.13	-0.13
FIU	CUSA	0.21	0.21	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.21	0.21	57.14	57.14	0.03	0.03
Holy Cross	Pat	0.20	0.20	38.71	38.71	-0.05	-0.05
Bowling Green	MAC	0.20	0.20	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.20	0.20	20.00	20.00	-0.12	-0.12
Fairfield	MAAC	0.20	0.20	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.20	0.20	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.19	0.19	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.19	0.19	44.44	44.44	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan	B10	0.18	0.18	79.41	79.41	0.10	0.10
Loyola MD	Pat	0.18	0.18	26.67	26.67	-0.08	-0.08
Hartford	AE	0.17	0.17	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Texas Tech	B12	0.17	0.17	72.73	72.73	0.08	0.08
Yale	Ivy	0.16	0.16	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cornell	Ivy	0.16	0.16	40.74	40.74	-0.03	-0.03
Stony Brook	AE	0.15	0.15	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Boston University	Pat	0.15	0.15	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	BE	0.15	0.15	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.15	0.15	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
Bucknell	Pat	0.15	0.15	73.53	73.53	0.07	0.07
Missouri	SEC	0.15	0.15	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.14	0.14	87.88	87.88	0.11	0.11
Purdue	B10	0.14	0.14	82.35	82.35	0.09	0.09
Princeton	Ivy	0.13	0.13	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.13	0.13	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.13	0.13	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.12	0.12	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
Denver	Sum	0.12	0.12	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
UMBC	AE	0.12	0.12	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
Creighton	BE	0.12	0.12	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.12	0.12	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.12	0.12	36.36	36.36	-0.03	-0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.12	0.12	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.12	0.12	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Albany	AE	0.12	0.12	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
Binghamton	AE	0.12	0.12	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Georgetown	BE	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
VCU	A10	0.12	0.12	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Army	Pat	0.12	0.12	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.12	0.12	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.12	0.12	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.12	0.12	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.12	0.12	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.12	0.12	76.67	76.67	0.06	0.06
Texas	B12	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.11	0.11	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Siena	MAAC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Manhattan	MAAC	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Penn	Ivy	0.10	0.10	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
Columbia	Ivy	0.10	0.10	26.92	26.92	-0.04	-0.04
Mercer	SC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Providence	BE	0.09	0.09	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
UCF	Amer	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.09	0.09	24.24	24.24	-0.05	-0.05
LSU	SEC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.09	0.09	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Wofford	SC	0.09	0.09	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.09	0.09	88.24	88.24	0.07	0.07
College of Charleston	CAA	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
James Madison	CAA	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Syracuse	ACC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Monmouth	MAAC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Baylor	B12	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.07	0.07	23.08	23.08	-0.04	-0.04
Harvard	Ivy	0.07	0.07	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Seattle	WAC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
UMKC	WAC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.06	0.06	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Maine	AE	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.05	-0.05
Milwaukee	Horz	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
New Hampshire	AE	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.05	-0.05
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.06	0.06	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Vermont	AE	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	B10	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.06	0.06	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
UT Arlington	SB	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Elon	CAA	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Xavier	BE	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	15.62	15.62	-0.04	-0.04
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
TCU	B12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
George Mason	A10	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Connecticut	Amer	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Houston	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Temple	Amer	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Tulane	Amer	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02