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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


NJIT

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:275.0
Current RPI:278
Expected SOS:305
Current SOS:260
Current Record:7-11
Expected Record:12-15
Current Conf Record:2-3
Expected Conf Record:7-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-7
Current OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC RPI:255
Expected OOC SOS:179



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-11198.50.08%
15-12213.21.26%
14-13230.36.08%
13-14248.316.29%
12-15266.026.95%
11-16284.525.40%
10-17302.316.52%
9-18317.65.89%
8-19329.91.39%
7-20338.50.13%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for NJIT.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Wagner (142.7)NECH49-60L0%0.0
11-14Lafayette (311.6)PatH96-80W100%0.0
11-18Seton Hall (25.9)BEA82-53L0%0.0
11-25Drexel (271.0)CAAH65-53W100%0.0
11-28LIU Brooklyn (276.3)NECH73-69W100%0.0
11-30West Virginia (15.9)B12A102-69L0%0.0
12-3UMass Lowell (308.7)AEH78-65W100%0.0
12-7Rutgers (187.9)B10A73-64L0%0.0
12-9Iona (96.0)MAACH70-74L0%0.0
12-12Colgate (220.5)PatA87-76L0%0.0
12-16Fairleigh Dickinson (280.5)NECH71-68W100%0.0
12-28Buffalo (33.5)MACA86-81L0%0.0
1-3Brown (260.6)IvyA70-69L0%0.0
1-6USC Upstate (335.9)ASunH98-87W100%0.0
1-11Stetson (305.8)ASunA80-67L0%0.0
1-13Florida Gulf Coast (149.6)ASunA68-54L0%0.0
1-18North Florida (241.9)ASunH91-59W100%0.0
1-20Jacksonville (301.6)ASunH61-63L0%0.0
1-24Kennesaw St. (313.7)ASunA0-051%0.3
1-27Lipscomb (133.1)ASunH0-044%-1.7
1-29Kennesaw St. (313.7)ASunH0-073%6.7
2-3Lipscomb (133.1)ASunA0-023%-8.1
2-8Florida Gulf Coast (149.6)ASunH0-028%-6.5
2-10Stetson (305.8)ASunH0-071%6.2
2-15Jacksonville (301.6)ASunA0-056%1.7
2-17North Florida (241.9)ASunA0-045%-1.4
2-22USC Upstate (335.9)ASunA0-059%2.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

NJIT's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


NJIT's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  NJIT.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NJITASun26.3726.3731.8240.00-9.59-5.27
Florida Gulf CoastASun2.934.5355.5664.740.331.33
North FloridaASun2.934.5333.3335.73-0.98-1.29
JacksonvilleASun2.934.5229.4130.72-1.21-1.74
Kennesaw St.ASun0.304.5216.6723.85-0.20-2.36
StetsonASun2.934.5229.4134.74-1.21-1.38
USC UpstateASun3.084.5211.7617.81-2.35-2.91
LipscombASun0.304.5252.9458.750.020.79
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC3.212.0725.0033.82-1.60-0.67
LIU BrooklynNEC3.202.0642.1143.98-0.51-0.25
WagnerNEC3.082.0562.5063.210.770.54
UMass LowellAE3.031.9535.2935.12-0.89-0.58
Seton HallBE3.011.9573.6866.821.430.66
LafayettePat2.921.9523.5328.48-1.55-0.84
ColgatePat2.851.9247.0649.22-0.17-0.03
RutgersB102.931.9252.6344.850.15-0.20
BrownIvy2.921.9246.1542.95-0.22-0.27
IonaMAAC2.861.8957.8962.870.450.49
DrexelCAA2.851.8831.5832.06-1.05-0.68
BuffaloMAC2.781.8570.5974.071.140.89
West VirginiaB122.781.8583.3377.441.851.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.250.3033.3335.21-0.08-0.09
Central ConnecticutNEC0.480.3052.3848.530.02-0.01
NavyPat0.230.2760.0055.160.050.03
BryantNEC0.320.279.5217.12-0.26-0.17
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.310.2742.1144.96-0.05-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.320.2730.0033.47-0.13-0.09
Robert MorrisNEC0.380.2657.1460.410.050.05
MaristMAAC0.400.2321.0522.02-0.23-0.13
Bowling GreenMAC0.220.2358.8249.760.04-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.2152.9452.650.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.150.2150.0052.460.000.01
FIUCUSA0.220.2035.2935.54-0.07-0.06
St. Francis PANEC0.150.2052.9459.250.010.04
Holy CrossPat0.310.2026.3230.49-0.14-0.08
AmericanPat0.310.2026.3228.11-0.15-0.09
Loyola MDPat0.300.2022.2228.66-0.17-0.08
FairfieldMAAC0.300.2038.8944.08-0.07-0.02
HartfordAE0.370.1950.0045.930.00-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.370.1942.1146.09-0.06-0.01
YaleIvy0.270.1741.1847.56-0.05-0.01
CornellIvy0.230.1733.3333.23-0.08-0.06
MichiganB100.220.1776.1970.740.120.07
Boston UniversityPat0.150.1750.0053.260.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.240.1636.8445.21-0.06-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.310.1683.3381.430.210.10
Texas TechB120.140.1678.9571.810.080.07
BelmontOVC0.000.1471.4374.660.000.07
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.1435.2940.480.00-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1457.8953.190.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.160.1452.9460.220.010.03
CampbellBSth0.150.1447.0647.41-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.150.1438.8940.78-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.150.1333.3336.48-0.05-0.04
PurdueB100.070.1390.4888.370.060.10
ArmyPat0.080.1361.1160.440.020.03
BucknellPat0.150.1361.9068.020.040.05
LehighPat0.150.1338.8944.75-0.03-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.150.1372.2274.710.060.07
TexasB120.070.1363.1657.630.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.250.1335.0031.83-0.07-0.05
HofstraCAA0.070.1357.8959.490.010.02
NebraskaB100.080.1366.6759.820.030.03
MissouriSEC0.230.1366.6763.200.080.03
AlbanyAE0.220.1371.4370.240.100.05
BinghamtonAE0.220.1342.1139.94-0.04-0.03
ButlerBE0.070.1366.6763.070.020.03
CreightonBE0.220.1375.0070.700.110.05
GeorgetownBE0.150.1368.4254.070.050.01
Kansas St.B120.150.1373.6862.720.070.03
Michigan St.B100.210.1385.0083.200.150.08
SienaMAAC0.140.1328.5729.94-0.06-0.05
RiderMAAC0.220.1365.0065.320.070.04
ColumbiaIvy0.080.1020.0032.25-0.05-0.04
PennIvy0.080.1064.7162.720.020.03
Florida St.ACC0.070.1073.6869.640.030.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.150.1070.0068.220.060.04
MercerSC0.070.1044.4454.86-0.010.01
MinnesotaB100.150.1063.6457.630.040.02
UABCUSA0.150.1061.1164.130.030.03
UMBCAE0.150.1055.5655.540.020.01
UCFAmer0.150.1068.4260.860.060.02
Ball St.MAC0.150.1061.1158.700.030.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.1046.6746.97-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.140.1060.0059.700.030.02
ProvidenceBE0.100.1070.0060.470.040.02
SyracuseACC0.220.0968.4261.230.080.02
VillanovaBE0.080.0994.7490.310.070.07
CanisiusMAAC0.220.0961.9063.140.050.02
DelawareCAA0.150.0947.3743.02-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.150.0957.1453.050.020.01
OhioMAC0.070.0947.0648.41-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.150.0947.0641.41-0.01-0.02
FordhamA100.210.0931.5829.06-0.08-0.04
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0950.0050.860.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.140.0927.7841.03-0.06-0.02
St. John'sBE0.140.0947.3742.16-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0768.4258.980.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.0721.4326.350.00-0.03
HarvardIvy0.000.0737.5046.690.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0723.5328.690.00-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.000.0772.2268.930.000.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0725.0031.45-0.04-0.03
DuquesneA100.080.0770.0058.090.030.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0731.5832.72-0.03-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.080.0752.6351.690.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0766.6755.940.030.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0766.6765.370.000.02
Green BayHorz0.080.0725.0027.94-0.04-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0745.0047.07-0.01-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0755.5656.740.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0765.0056.340.020.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0744.4450.31-0.010.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0711.1115.29-0.06-0.05
SamfordSC0.000.0727.7832.660.00-0.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0757.8954.500.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0736.8432.76-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.080.0750.0045.870.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0727.7831.71-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.080.0735.0026.12-0.02-0.03
UMKCWAC0.080.0721.0524.75-0.04-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0752.6358.590.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.0770.0061.440.000.02
Wright St.Horz0.080.0768.4269.250.030.03
NorthwesternB100.100.0755.0050.330.010.00
FloridaSEC0.070.0773.6871.560.030.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0710.0019.63-0.06-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0737.5037.68-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0747.3746.09-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.070.0761.1153.170.020.00
MaineAE0.000.0710.5314.830.00-0.05
Miami FLACC0.070.0777.7870.480.040.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0772.2258.920.030.01
New HampshireAE0.080.0733.3340.08-0.03-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0730.0032.52-0.03-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0760.0062.030.010.02
VermontAE0.080.0775.0077.850.040.04
Wichita St.Amer0.070.0778.9577.380.040.04
WoffordSC0.070.0768.7563.690.030.02
MarylandB100.080.0770.0065.250.030.02
Penn St.B100.080.0761.9055.760.020.01
WisconsinB100.150.0650.0046.300.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.080.0647.0644.91-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0666.6765.640.020.02
ElonCAA0.070.0652.6351.080.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.0647.3744.270.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.070.0625.0028.24-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.0644.4444.920.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0663.1663.220.000.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0641.1839.16-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0680.9576.520.040.03
TowsonCAA0.070.0663.1665.970.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0622.2227.33-0.04-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0652.9452.230.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.070.0664.7159.990.020.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.140.069.5217.90-0.12-0.04
IndianaB100.070.0657.8950.710.010.00
Texas A&MSEC0.150.0668.4263.960.060.02
BaylorB120.070.0661.1156.090.020.01
DePaulBE0.000.0642.1134.310.00-0.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0661.1147.220.00-0.00
KansasB120.070.0684.2179.750.050.04
MarquetteBE0.070.0668.4260.550.030.01
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0668.4254.090.030.00
TCUB120.000.0673.6865.600.000.02
XavierBE0.070.0685.7180.080.050.04
OklahomaB120.070.0677.7867.910.040.02
DaytonA100.080.0347.3750.94-0.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0365.0054.670.020.00
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0352.6347.390.00-0.00
George MasonA100.080.0345.0041.30-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.080.0350.0046.810.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0362.5058.690.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0389.4785.550.060.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0320.0023.34-0.04-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.070.0327.7838.14-0.03-0.01
DrakeMVC0.070.0355.0048.980.01-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0342.1132.47-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.070.0378.9572.990.040.01
IowaB100.070.0347.6244.02-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.070.0340.0042.69-0.01-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0366.6773.210.020.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0372.2272.980.030.01
St. BonaventureA100.080.0366.6768.730.030.01
TempleAmer0.070.0352.6351.740.000.00
ToledoMAC0.080.0366.6767.700.030.01
TulaneAmer0.070.0363.1657.890.020.00
Weber St.BSky0.070.0356.2557.400.010.00
KentuckySEC0.000.0373.6867.970.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0340.0043.35-0.01-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.070.0378.9569.790.040.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0329.4139.63-0.03-0.01
PittsburghACC0.070.0340.0030.87-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0336.8435.57-0.02-0.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0394.7486.140.070.02