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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


NJIT

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:290.0
Current RPI:290
Expected SOS:253
Current SOS:253
Current Record:9-20
Expected Record:9-20
Current Conf Record:3-12
Expected Conf Record:3-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-8
Current OOC Record:6-8
Expected OOC Record:6-8
Expected OOC RPI:177
Expected OOC SOS:224



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-20290.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for NJIT.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Utah St. (181.0)MWCA93-84L0%0.0
11-17Lafayette (321.0)PatA84-83L0%0.0
11-19Colgate (294.0)PatH74-68W100%0.0
11-22Georgia St. (104.0)SBN74-53L0%0.0
11-23Idaho St. (340.0)BSkyN67-71W100%0.0
11-26Purdue (19.0)B10A79-68L0%0.0
11-30St. Francis PA (258.0)NECH83-70W100%0.0
12-3UMass Lowell (309.0)AEA74-75W100%0.0
12-6Minnesota (20.0)B10A74-68L0%0.0
12-10Kent St. (142.0)MACA87-71L0%0.0
12-14Iona (89.0)MAACA94-80L0%0.0
12-17Temple (137.0)AmerA68-63L0%0.0
12-28Stony Brook (176.0)AEA61-64W100%0.0
1-4Brown (284.0)IvyH75-73W100%0.0
1-7USC Upstate (229.0)ASunA75-65L0%0.0
1-12Jacksonville (291.0)ASunH81-82L0%0.0
1-14North Florida (217.0)ASunH84-78W100%0.0
1-19Stetson (328.0)ASunA82-76L0%0.0
1-21Florida Gulf Coast (85.0)ASunA84-71L0%0.0
1-25Kennesaw St. (259.0)ASunA71-65L0%0.0
1-28Lipscomb (189.0)ASunH62-66L0%0.0
1-30Kennesaw St. (259.0)ASunH53-54L0%0.0
2-4Lipscomb (189.0)ASunA87-63L0%0.0
2-9North Florida (217.0)ASunA91-69L0%0.0
2-11Jacksonville (291.0)ASunA76-73L0%0.0
2-16Florida Gulf Coast (85.0)ASunH73-80L0%0.0
2-18Stetson (328.0)ASunH60-56W100%0.0
2-23USC Upstate (229.0)ASunH88-87W100%0.0
2-27Lipscomb (189.0)ASunA97-66L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

NJIT's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


NJIT's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  NJIT.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NJITASun26.3626.3632.1732.17-9.40-9.40
LipscombASun5.945.9451.8551.850.220.22
North FloridaASun4.424.4235.7135.71-1.26-1.26
Florida Gulf CoastASun4.394.3975.0075.002.202.20
Kennesaw St.ASun4.334.3335.7135.71-1.24-1.24
USC UpstateASun4.294.2946.1546.15-0.33-0.33
StetsonASun4.274.2725.9325.93-2.06-2.06
JacksonvilleASun4.274.2742.3142.31-0.66-0.66
ColgatePat1.851.8530.0030.00-0.74-0.74
Stony BrookAE1.841.8460.0060.000.370.37
PurdueB101.811.8177.4277.420.990.99
Utah St.MWC1.781.7841.3841.38-0.31-0.31
LafayettePat1.781.7825.0025.00-0.89-0.89
UMass LowellAE1.781.7834.4834.48-0.55-0.55
Idaho St.BSky1.751.7513.7913.79-1.27-1.27
BrownIvy1.751.7540.7440.74-0.32-0.32
St. Francis PANEC1.751.7550.0050.000.000.00
Georgia St.SB1.751.7558.6258.620.300.30
MinnesotaB101.751.7571.8871.880.770.77
IonaMAAC1.721.7263.6463.640.470.47
Kent St.MAC1.721.7260.6160.610.370.37
TempleAmer1.721.7248.3948.39-0.06-0.06
BinghamtonAE0.250.2531.0331.03-0.10-0.10
FIUCUSA0.240.2417.2417.24-0.15-0.15
Loyola MDPat0.200.2046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.200.2060.6160.610.040.04
Morehead St.OVC0.200.2042.8642.86-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.200.2053.3353.330.010.01
LehighPat0.200.2061.2961.290.040.04
IowaB100.200.2056.2556.250.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.190.1959.3859.380.040.04
Michigan St.B100.190.1957.5857.580.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.180.1832.2632.26-0.06-0.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.180.1826.6726.67-0.08-0.08
Florida A&MMEAC0.180.1817.8617.86-0.11-0.11
South AlabamaSB0.180.1840.0040.00-0.04-0.04
AuburnSEC0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
BelmontOVC0.170.1777.7877.780.100.10
Tennessee TechOVC0.170.1733.3333.33-0.06-0.06
MaristMAAC0.170.1725.0025.00-0.09-0.09
CincinnatiAmer0.170.1785.2985.290.120.12
UMBCAE0.170.1757.1457.140.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.170.1734.4834.48-0.05-0.05
MichiganB100.160.1668.5768.570.060.06
CampbellBSth0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.150.1530.0030.00-0.06-0.06
CornellIvy0.150.1525.0025.00-0.07-0.07
MaineAE0.140.1419.3519.35-0.09-0.09
Boston UniversityPat0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.140.1453.5753.570.010.01
AmericanPat0.140.1426.6726.67-0.07-0.07
MassachusettsA100.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.140.1458.6258.620.020.02
NevadaMWC0.140.1482.3582.350.090.09
Penn St.B100.130.1345.4545.45-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
SienaMAAC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.123.333.33-0.11-0.11
PennIvy0.120.1246.4346.43-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.120.1238.4638.46-0.03-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.120.1210.0010.00-0.09-0.09
Central ConnecticutNEC0.120.1220.6920.69-0.07-0.07
ArmyPat0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
BucknellPat0.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
Holy CrossPat0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.110.1175.0075.000.060.06
North DakotaBSky0.110.1167.8667.860.040.04
BryantNEC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
HartfordAE0.110.1128.1228.12-0.05-0.05
VermontAE0.110.1184.8584.850.080.08
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
WagnerNEC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.110.1155.8855.880.010.01
IndianaB100.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
WisconsinB100.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
MarylandB100.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
NiagaraMAAC0.110.1130.3030.30-0.04-0.04
OhioMAC0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.090.0978.5778.570.050.05
YaleIvy0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
Fort WayneSum0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
FordhamA100.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.090.0958.8258.820.020.02
SyracuseACC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
La SalleA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
VillanovaBE0.080.0891.1891.180.070.07
ArkansasSEC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Ball St.MAC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
RutgersB100.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Ohio St.B100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
BuffaloMAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
DartmouthIvy0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
DenverSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.060.0661.5461.540.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0629.4129.41-0.03-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
BaylorB120.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
BYUWCC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
IdahoBSky0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
LSUSEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
MontanaBSky0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
UNLVMWC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
IllinoisB100.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
NebraskaB100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
ToledoMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Arizona St.P120.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
TexasB120.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0318.5218.52-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00