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Through games of Feb 22, 2017.


NJIT

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:298.5
Current RPI:297
Expected SOS:263
Current SOS:264
Current Record:8-19
Expected Record:9-19
Current Conf Record:2-11
Expected Conf Record:3-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-9
Current OOC Record:6-8
Expected OOC Record:6-8
Expected OOC RPI:185
Expected OOC SOS:237



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-19291.057.10%
8-20308.542.90%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for NJIT.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Utah St. (180.8)MWCA93-84L0%0.0
11-17Lafayette (322.7)PatA84-83L0%0.0
11-19Colgate (279.4)PatH74-68W100%0.0
11-22Georgia St. (120.9)SBN74-53L0%0.0
11-23Idaho St. (333.7)BSkyN67-71W100%0.0
11-26Purdue (17.2)B10A79-68L0%0.0
11-30St. Francis PA (284.5)NECH83-70W100%0.0
12-3UMass Lowell (302.1)AEA74-75W100%0.0
12-6Minnesota (20.9)B10A74-68L0%0.0
12-10Kent St. (188.1)MACA87-71L0%0.0
12-14Iona (109.9)MAACA94-80L0%0.0
12-17Temple (124.0)AmerA68-63L0%0.0
12-28Stony Brook (160.2)AEA61-64W100%0.0
1-4Brown (293.8)IvyH75-73W100%0.0
1-7USC Upstate (216.4)ASunA75-65L0%0.0
1-12Jacksonville (279.5)ASunH81-82L0%0.0
1-14North Florida (239.9)ASunH84-78W100%0.0
1-19Stetson (330.9)ASunA82-76L0%0.0
1-21Florida Gulf Coast (84.3)ASunA84-71L0%0.0
1-25Kennesaw St. (269.8)ASunA71-65L0%0.0
1-28Lipscomb (163.2)ASunH62-66L0%0.0
1-30Kennesaw St. (269.8)ASunH53-54L0%0.0
2-4Lipscomb (163.2)ASunA87-63L0%0.0
2-9North Florida (239.9)ASunA91-69L0%0.0
2-11Jacksonville (279.5)ASunA76-73L0%0.0
2-16Florida Gulf Coast (84.3)ASunH73-80L0%0.0
2-18Stetson (330.9)ASunH60-56W100%0.0
2-23USC Upstate (216.4)ASunH0-057%1.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

NJIT's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


NJIT's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  NJIT.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NJITASun26.3526.3431.1931.39-9.91-9.80
USC UpstateASun2.724.3848.0048.00-0.11-0.18
Kennesaw St.ASun4.414.3636.0036.19-1.23-1.20
LipscombASun4.414.3652.0052.270.180.20
StetsonASun4.414.3628.0027.13-1.94-1.99
Florida Gulf CoastASun4.404.3570.8371.791.831.90
JacksonvilleASun4.404.3545.8345.32-0.37-0.41
North FloridaASun4.404.3529.1730.68-1.83-1.68
ColgatePat1.921.9232.1433.87-0.69-0.62
Stony BrookAE1.991.9162.9661.140.520.43
PurdueB101.961.8881.4880.141.231.13
UMass LowellAE1.921.8534.4834.48-0.60-0.57
Utah St.MWC1.921.8540.0041.91-0.38-0.30
LafayettePat1.881.8523.0822.88-1.01-1.00
Idaho St.BSky1.891.8216.6717.47-1.26-1.18
BrownIvy1.881.8239.1338.99-0.41-0.40
St. Francis PANEC1.881.8244.0045.51-0.23-0.16
Georgia St.SB1.881.8158.3357.890.310.29
MinnesotaB101.881.8174.0772.590.910.82
IonaMAAC1.851.7960.7161.060.400.40
Kent St.MAC1.851.7953.8553.550.140.13
TempleAmer1.851.7946.4348.96-0.13-0.04
FIUCUSA0.280.2616.0018.13-0.19-0.17
BinghamtonAE0.270.2533.3334.84-0.09-0.08
Georgia SouthernSB0.210.2257.6955.370.030.02
IowaB100.240.2153.5751.590.020.01
Air ForceMWC0.180.1934.6233.56-0.05-0.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.210.1920.0022.21-0.13-0.11
Florida A&MMEAC0.210.1920.0020.88-0.13-0.11
South AlabamaSB0.210.1944.0042.77-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.180.1960.7159.670.040.04
LehighPat0.200.1959.2660.160.040.04
MaristMAAC0.200.1924.1424.50-0.11-0.09
UMBCAE0.200.1861.5460.470.050.04
Loyola MDPat0.200.1848.1549.03-0.01-0.00
AlbanyAE0.200.1858.6259.810.030.04
Michigan St.B100.200.1859.2657.930.040.03
CampbellBSth0.140.1640.0040.08-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.140.1623.0822.08-0.07-0.09
Morehead St.OVC0.170.1644.0046.00-0.02-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.140.1638.4638.56-0.03-0.04
AmericanPat0.170.1625.0025.07-0.08-0.08
CornellIvy0.140.1625.0025.31-0.07-0.08
MassachusettsA100.170.1548.1547.57-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.170.1588.8987.450.130.11
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.170.1557.1457.270.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.160.1553.5753.370.010.01
MaineAE0.170.1517.2417.48-0.11-0.10
New HampshireAE0.160.1557.6958.050.020.02
Penn St.B100.130.1450.0048.740.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.140.1382.1480.600.090.08
AlabamaSEC0.100.1361.5459.750.020.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.140.130.003.38-0.14-0.12
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.150.1329.6331.16-0.06-0.05
Wright St.Horz0.140.1362.9662.450.040.03
North DakotaBSky0.150.1363.6464.970.040.04
BelmontOVC0.140.1380.0079.920.080.08
St. Francis NYNEC0.140.1310.7111.38-0.11-0.10
Tennessee St.OVC0.140.1357.6956.380.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.1337.0436.81-0.04-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.140.1376.0076.570.070.07
Central ConnecticutNEC0.140.1318.5220.01-0.09-0.08
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.1344.8343.96-0.01-0.02
PennIvy0.140.1247.8350.32-0.010.00
ColumbiaIvy0.100.1240.9140.59-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.140.1250.0049.270.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.140.1248.2848.54-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.130.1239.2938.46-0.03-0.03
BucknellPat0.130.1273.3373.730.060.06
Holy CrossPat0.130.1250.0050.080.000.00
NavyPat0.130.1250.0048.770.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.140.1260.7158.720.030.02
Weber St.BSky0.140.1260.8760.770.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.130.1246.4343.89-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.100.1264.2963.090.030.03
NevadaMWC0.140.1278.5778.260.080.07
RiderMAAC0.130.1253.3353.310.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.100.1226.9225.66-0.05-0.06
UCFAmer0.130.1264.2963.820.040.03
HartfordAE0.130.1230.0029.22-0.05-0.05
VermontAE0.090.1282.7682.940.060.08
NiagaraMAAC0.140.1231.0331.60-0.05-0.04
MarylandB100.130.1277.7876.990.070.06
WisconsinB100.100.1281.4880.840.060.07
IndianaB100.100.1253.5752.940.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.110.1062.9661.340.030.02
SyracuseACC0.100.1058.6257.910.020.02
BryantNEC0.110.1035.7137.15-0.03-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.110.1072.7374.040.050.05
ArkansasSEC0.100.0975.0071.920.050.04
La SalleA100.100.0953.8554.810.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.110.0964.0064.920.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.110.0957.1456.440.020.01
Fort WayneSum0.100.0960.0060.590.020.02
WagnerNEC0.100.0952.0053.230.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.0956.0055.900.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.0951.7253.710.000.01
YaleIvy0.110.0959.0960.220.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.100.0935.7136.66-0.03-0.02
VillanovaBE0.100.0989.6688.760.080.07
RutgersB100.100.0942.8642.33-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.0948.0047.41-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.070.0968.0068.550.020.03
Florida St.ACC0.100.0978.5776.210.060.05
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0933.3332.68-0.02-0.03
NorthwesternB100.070.0971.4368.340.030.03
Ohio St.B100.100.0953.5752.340.010.00
BaylorB120.070.0781.4878.550.040.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0769.5771.400.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.040.0729.1729.85-0.01-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.040.0741.6742.37-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.040.0771.4372.700.020.03
DavidsonA100.070.0753.8552.600.010.00
DenverSum0.070.0757.1456.680.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0730.4331.13-0.03-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.040.0750.0049.130.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.040.0751.8551.270.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0740.7442.89-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0769.2370.270.030.03
LSUSEC0.070.0733.3331.80-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.070.0770.3767.240.030.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0725.0026.25-0.04-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.040.0712.0011.56-0.03-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0728.0029.86-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.040.0748.0046.99-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.040.0774.0773.870.020.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0728.0028.37-0.03-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0732.1431.91-0.03-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0628.0028.91-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0625.0027.77-0.04-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0630.7730.10-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0665.3866.650.020.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.070.0646.1547.50-0.01-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0665.3864.150.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.040.0626.0925.97-0.02-0.03
FordhamA100.070.0644.4444.02-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.040.0666.6765.300.010.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0620.0021.74-0.04-0.04
MercerSC0.070.0640.7440.78-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.070.0625.9325.77-0.03-0.03
PacificWCC0.070.0632.1432.21-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.070.0638.4640.55-0.02-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0637.9339.64-0.02-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0657.6958.100.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0614.8115.43-0.05-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.070.0651.8552.250.000.00
TroySB0.070.0653.8552.820.010.00
UNLVMWC0.040.0635.7134.80-0.01-0.02
WyomingMWC0.070.0653.8553.510.010.00
BYUWCC0.070.0665.5264.140.020.02
Texas TechB120.070.0660.7159.310.020.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0634.7836.63-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.070.0635.7134.58-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.040.0664.0065.600.010.02
IdahoBSky0.040.0647.8350.77-0.000.00
MontanaBSky0.040.0650.0050.340.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.040.0646.1546.03-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0629.1731.48-0.03-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0669.2368.600.010.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0637.0438.57-0.02-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.070.0650.0048.510.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.060.0664.2961.960.020.01
AkronMAC0.030.0677.7876.390.020.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0640.7440.19-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.070.0650.0050.440.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.070.0630.7729.92-0.03-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0614.2918.10-0.05-0.04
ToledoMAC0.070.0648.1549.49-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0625.0026.71-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.060.0675.0074.370.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0658.6258.690.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0651.8551.130.000.00
IllinoisB100.070.0655.5655.020.010.01
MemphisAmer0.060.0666.6763.170.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0682.7681.880.020.04
NebraskaB100.030.0644.0042.70-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.060.0685.7185.540.050.04
TulaneAmer0.030.0618.5218.47-0.02-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.040.034.005.36-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.030.0328.5729.06-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.040.0357.6957.750.010.00
Indiana St.MVC0.040.0335.7135.66-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.000.0344.0043.41-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.040.0316.0016.19-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.040.0362.9661.410.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.040.0385.1985.420.030.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0351.8550.690.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.040.0344.0045.06-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.040.0359.0960.070.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.040.0361.5462.870.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.040.0360.7160.840.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.040.0366.6766.780.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.040.0350.0046.860.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.040.0362.9663.390.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.040.0351.8551.660.000.00
Texas St.SB0.040.0354.1753.210.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.040.0351.8554.430.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0332.1430.40-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.040.0343.4843.27-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0341.6743.49-0.01-0.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0342.8642.57-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.040.0350.0052.050.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.040.0323.0823.14-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.040.0340.9144.15-0.01-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.040.0334.7836.95-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.040.0312.0013.36-0.03-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0353.8551.910.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0337.5039.90-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0362.9661.470.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0337.5040.16-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0357.6957.630.000.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0314.2913.58-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.030.0362.9662.810.010.01
TexasB120.030.0335.7134.84-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0342.3143.63-0.01-0.00
WoffordSC0.030.0344.4443.90-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.030.0346.4344.09-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0337.0435.10-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.030.0332.1430.89-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0322.2223.45-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.030.0351.8551.210.000.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0370.3769.130.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0378.5778.520.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0322.7323.17-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0346.1546.92-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0348.2848.17-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.8642.05-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.030.0346.1547.81-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0312.5014.87-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0353.5751.920.000.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0378.5777.800.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0326.0925.92-0.02-0.01