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Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


Ohio

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:199.5
Current RPI:243
Expected SOS:84
Current SOS:180
Current Record:3-4
Expected Record:10-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-2
Current OOC Record:3-4
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:232
Expected OOC SOS:110



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-965.00.01%
17-1072.00.08%
16-1187.00.30%
15-12105.61.18%
14-13124.23.29%
13-14143.97.24%
12-15163.413.13%
11-16183.118.39%
10-17204.019.94%
9-18224.017.02%
8-19244.111.16%
7-20263.25.67%
6-21279.82.02%
5-22291.00.48%
4-23309.60.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Ohio.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Appalachian St. (261.5)SBH73-47W100%0.0
11-19Florida Gulf Coast (98.1)ASunA79-62L0%0.0
11-25Arkansas Pine Bluff (298.0)SWACH69-60W100%0.0
11-29Belmont (115.8)OVCH81-83L0%0.0
12-6St. Bonaventure (99.8)A10H70-80L0%0.0
12-13Alcorn St. (332.4)SWACH66-55W100%0.0
12-18Evansville (73.2)MVCA81-69L0%0.0
12-22George Washington (76.4)A10N0-020%-10.0
12-30UNC Wilmington (113.7)CAAH0-051%0.2
1-7Northern Illinois (263.4)MACH0-073%7.3
1-10Bowling Green (97.7)MACA0-017%-11.2
1-14Toledo (92.8)MACH0-038%-3.7
1-17Kent St. (138.4)MACA0-023%-8.5
1-21Ball St. (228.6)MACA0-036%-4.3
1-24Buffalo (41.1)MACH0-031%-5.8
1-27Eastern Michigan (108.4)MACA0-018%-10.7
1-31Central Michigan (91.0)MACA0-014%-12.7
2-4Akron (153.5)MACH0-050%-0.0
2-7Eastern Michigan (108.4)MACH0-042%-2.4
2-10Central Michigan (91.0)MACH0-036%-4.3
2-14Miami OH (272.2)MACA0-048%-0.7
2-18Western Michigan (134.6)MACA0-023%-8.5
2-21Kent St. (138.4)MACH0-050%-0.1
2-24Bowling Green (97.7)MACH0-040%-2.8
2-28Akron (153.5)MACA0-024%-8.4
3-3Buffalo (41.1)MACA0-011%-14.1
3-6Miami OH (272.2)MACH0-074%7.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Ohio's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Ohio's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Ohio.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
OhioMAC27.7326.3331.0332.87-10.52-9.02
BuffaloMAC0.404.6277.7870.320.221.88
Miami OHMAC0.404.6130.0027.92-0.16-2.04
AkronMAC0.324.5760.0055.640.060.52
Kent St.MAC0.004.5475.0057.760.000.70
Bowling GreenMAC0.004.5475.0066.820.001.53
Central MichiganMAC0.324.5185.7170.140.231.82
Eastern MichiganMAC0.004.4875.0065.910.001.43
ToledoMAC0.002.7763.6461.490.000.64
Ball St.MAC0.002.7725.0036.02-0.00-0.77
Northern IllinoisMAC0.002.7742.8633.52-0.00-0.91
Western MichiganMAC0.002.7655.5651.730.000.10
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC7.142.0520.0038.96-4.29-0.45
EvansvilleMVC7.471.9575.0071.073.730.82
St. BonaventureA107.141.9575.0063.863.570.54
Alcorn St.SWAC7.141.910.0028.74-7.14-0.81
BelmontOVC7.541.8860.0063.571.510.51
George WashingtonA100.001.8866.6764.960.000.56
Appalachian St.SB7.141.8542.8635.87-1.02-0.52
Florida Gulf CoastASun7.141.8575.0069.013.570.70
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.001.8557.1455.560.000.21
DaytonA100.000.2980.0069.770.000.12
Wright St.Horz1.050.2360.0057.890.210.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.2045.4543.23-0.00-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.000.2020.0025.85-0.00-0.09
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.190.0028.43-0.00-0.08
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.190.009.06-0.00-0.16
Kennesaw St.ASun0.450.1733.3328.79-0.15-0.07
NorthwesternB100.000.1763.6442.810.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.000.1618.1819.46-0.00-0.10
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.160.0014.00-0.00-0.12
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.169.0917.12-0.00-0.11
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1633.3362.72-0.000.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.400.1616.6743.20-0.26-0.02
VCUA100.320.1672.7375.740.150.08
BradleyMVC0.000.1433.3334.04-0.00-0.04
LipscombASun0.650.1322.2238.44-0.36-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1336.3645.11-0.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1333.3337.22-0.00-0.03
OaklandHorz0.000.1327.2732.45-0.00-0.05
MassachusettsA100.400.1354.5552.490.040.01
DavidsonA100.000.1388.8977.320.000.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.130.0039.10-0.00-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.130.0034.33-0.00-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1320.0052.97-0.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.1322.2235.90-0.00-0.04
ElonCAA0.000.1344.4451.07-0.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.1342.8637.83-0.00-0.03
DuquesneA100.000.1337.5034.06-0.00-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1375.0058.760.000.02
RichmondA100.000.1360.0057.700.000.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1354.5544.930.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1355.5655.280.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1355.5655.710.000.01
MaineAE0.000.1011.1120.80-0.00-0.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.1012.5026.89-0.00-0.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.1020.0035.33-0.00-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.1020.0044.37-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.450.1010.0018.05-0.36-0.06
Murray St.OVC0.840.1060.0065.120.170.03
HamptonMEAC0.890.1045.4549.62-0.08-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1040.0043.04-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.1063.6455.660.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.1070.0060.920.000.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1040.0046.19-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.320.1050.0051.710.000.00
Michigan St.B100.320.1066.6767.300.110.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1033.3343.14-0.00-0.01
TroySB0.450.1033.3339.85-0.15-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.100.008.56-0.00-0.08
HofstraCAA0.450.1070.0076.180.180.05
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1030.0029.75-0.00-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.400.1070.0059.660.160.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.100.0011.59-0.00-0.07
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1033.3349.35-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.000.1040.0048.02-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.000.1033.3330.21-0.00-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1060.0043.160.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0925.0035.39-0.00-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.320.0950.0047.880.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0942.8648.87-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.400.090.0011.24-0.40-0.07
CanisiusMAAC0.400.0955.5662.150.040.02
NiagaraMAAC0.400.0912.5029.51-0.30-0.04
Penn St.B100.000.0991.6755.310.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.0918.1825.30-0.00-0.05
Virginia TechACC0.450.0960.0038.030.09-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0930.0039.59-0.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0914.2929.82-0.00-0.04
MichiganB100.000.0750.0040.450.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0750.0057.820.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.0710.0027.17-0.00-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.400.0737.5063.95-0.100.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0763.6467.210.000.02
IowaB100.450.0766.6759.420.150.01
FurmanSC0.840.0722.2231.81-0.47-0.02
Green BayHorz0.790.0775.0077.010.400.04
PittsburghACC0.400.0770.0051.780.160.00
San FranciscoWCC0.790.0750.0054.170.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0745.4545.10-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0750.0068.770.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0750.0037.570.00-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0716.6737.21-0.00-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0754.5557.570.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0740.0041.32-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.070.0015.00-0.00-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0744.4449.14-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0760.0047.170.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0757.1457.100.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.400.0650.0046.690.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.000.0660.0034.160.00-0.02
IUPUISum0.400.0627.2728.86-0.18-0.03
VMISC0.000.0633.3338.93-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.450.0654.5564.070.040.02
FordhamA100.000.0628.5727.11-0.00-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0666.6762.580.000.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0662.5072.070.000.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0618.1820.86-0.00-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0660.0061.600.000.01
KansasB120.000.0690.0070.680.000.03
La SalleA100.000.0654.5552.730.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0637.5049.31-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3346.17-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0023.69-0.00-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0690.9183.090.000.04
Rhode IslandA100.000.0666.6773.310.000.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0660.0033.270.00-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0031.89-0.00-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0633.3340.63-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0050.060.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0687.5085.480.000.05
YaleIvy0.000.0666.6761.820.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.320.0681.8273.180.210.03
BryantNEC0.000.0628.5745.89-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0655.5648.710.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.000.0650.0054.190.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0096.290.000.06
MarshallCUSA0.000.0622.2236.53-0.00-0.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0681.8266.010.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0681.8282.250.000.04
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0666.6766.010.000.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0620.0040.84-0.00-0.01
USCP120.000.0660.0036.410.00-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0637.5031.88-0.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.0690.9188.840.000.05
CaliforniaP120.450.0390.9169.030.370.01
FIUCUSA0.400.0344.4450.41-0.040.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0360.0069.200.000.01
MaristMAAC0.400.039.0916.15-0.32-0.02
TexasB120.450.0390.9179.980.370.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0360.0071.280.000.01
XavierBE0.000.0372.7367.590.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0322.2229.80-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0318.1830.76-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.0372.7367.960.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0325.0043.93-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.320.0345.4555.13-0.030.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0333.3337.91-0.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.320.0340.0037.64-0.06-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0337.5052.01-0.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0336.3650.71-0.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0084.930.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0380.0067.830.000.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0350.0060.410.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0391.6777.120.000.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0390.0082.310.000.02
PacificWCC0.000.0355.5638.270.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0372.7372.580.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.030.008.00-0.00-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0366.6764.770.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0350.0043.310.00-0.00
UtahP120.000.0380.0080.520.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0366.6754.130.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.400.0327.2729.17-0.18-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.450.0380.0053.260.270.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0338.4644.61-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0354.5532.590.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0390.0067.380.000.01
SienaMAAC0.400.0333.3349.54-0.13-0.00
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0086.080.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.320.0350.0055.890.000.00
BucknellPat0.000.0340.0036.66-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.320.0316.6733.39-0.22-0.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0087.090.000.02
HawaiiBW0.320.0366.6754.470.110.00
High PointBSth0.320.0366.6761.790.110.01
HoustonAmer0.320.0362.5041.790.08-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0336.3648.28-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.000.0370.0057.440.000.00
StanfordP120.000.0366.6758.320.000.00
Texas TechB120.320.0390.0055.360.260.00