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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Ohio

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:231.0
Current RPI:231
Expected SOS:97
Current SOS:97
Current Record:10-20
Expected Record:10-20
Current Conf Record:5-14
Expected Conf Record:5-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-12
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:243
Expected OOC SOS:202



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-20231.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Ohio.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Appalachian St. (250.0)SBH73-47W100%0.0
11-19Florida Gulf Coast (137.0)ASunA79-62L0%0.0
11-25Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)SWACH69-60W100%0.0
11-29Belmont (105.0)OVCH81-83L0%0.0
12-6St. Bonaventure (121.0)A10H70-80L0%0.0
12-13Alcorn St. (348.0)SWACH66-55W100%0.0
12-18Evansville (118.0)MVCA81-69L0%0.0
12-22George Washington (84.0)A10N77-49L0%0.0
12-23DePaul (197.0)BEN78-99W100%0.0
12-25Nebraska (158.0)B10N71-58L0%0.0
12-30UNC Wilmington (145.0)CAAH72-53W100%0.0
1-7Northern Illinois (185.0)MACH60-70L0%0.0
1-10Bowling Green (109.0)MACA69-54L0%0.0
1-14Toledo (79.0)MACH73-80L0%0.0
1-17Kent St. (94.0)MACA69-59L0%0.0
1-21Ball St. (284.0)MACA73-82W100%0.0
1-24Buffalo (28.0)MACH63-61W100%0.0
1-27Eastern Michigan (139.0)MACA76-40L0%0.0
1-31Central Michigan (70.0)MACA74-69L0%0.0
2-4Akron (115.0)MACH83-82W100%0.0
2-7Eastern Michigan (139.0)MACH76-73W100%0.0
2-10Central Michigan (70.0)MACH57-68L0%0.0
2-14Miami OH (229.0)MACA77-66L0%0.0
2-18Western Michigan (119.0)MACA80-69L0%0.0
2-21Kent St. (94.0)MACH51-64L0%0.0
2-24Bowling Green (109.0)MACH65-76L0%0.0
2-27Akron (115.0)MACA70-58L0%0.0
3-3Buffalo (28.0)MACA93-66L0%0.0
3-6Miami OH (229.0)MACH95-65W100%0.0
3-9Western Michigan (119.0)MACA82-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Ohio's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Ohio's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Ohio.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
OhioMAC26.2526.2528.1228.12-11.48-11.48
AkronMAC4.314.3159.3859.380.810.81
BuffaloMAC4.264.2673.3373.331.991.99
Eastern MichiganMAC4.184.1857.1457.140.600.60
Miami OHMAC4.174.1737.9337.93-1.01-1.01
Bowling GreenMAC4.144.1464.2964.291.181.18
Western MichiganMAC4.144.1455.1755.170.430.43
Central MichiganMAC4.144.1469.2369.231.591.59
Kent St.MAC4.114.1162.0762.070.990.99
ToledoMAC2.602.6059.3859.380.490.49
Northern IllinoisMAC2.562.5642.8642.86-0.37-0.37
Ball St.MAC2.542.5421.4321.43-1.45-1.45
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.831.8338.7138.71-0.41-0.41
EvansvilleMVC1.751.7558.6258.620.300.30
St. BonaventureA101.741.7456.6756.670.230.23
DePaulBE1.721.7238.7138.71-0.39-0.39
George WashingtonA101.721.7262.5062.500.430.43
Alcorn St.SWAC1.721.7217.2417.24-1.13-1.13
BelmontOVC1.691.6966.6766.670.560.56
Appalachian St.SB1.671.6742.8642.86-0.24-0.24
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.671.6764.2964.290.480.48
NebraskaB101.671.6740.0040.00-0.33-0.33
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.671.6758.6258.620.290.29
DaytonA100.270.2775.7675.760.140.14
Alabama A&MSWAC0.220.2228.5728.57-0.09-0.09
NorthwesternB100.190.1946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.190.1926.6726.67-0.09-0.09
Wright St.Horz0.190.1931.0331.03-0.07-0.07
Grambling St.SWAC0.190.190.000.00-0.19-0.19
Youngstown St.Horz0.170.1727.5927.59-0.08-0.08
LongwoodBSth0.160.1628.1228.12-0.07-0.07
Kennesaw St.ASun0.140.1426.6726.67-0.06-0.06
NortheasternCAA0.140.1467.6567.650.050.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.1418.7518.75-0.09-0.09
Alabama St.SWAC0.140.1462.9662.960.040.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.140.1464.7164.710.040.04
OaklandHorz0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.130.1334.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1370.0070.000.050.05
DuquesneA100.130.1336.6736.67-0.03-0.03
VCUA100.130.1374.2974.290.060.06
Penn St.B100.130.1352.9452.940.010.01
BradleyMVC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
LipscombASun0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
IowaB100.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Murray St.OVC0.110.1183.3383.330.070.07
ElonCAA0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.110.1167.6567.650.040.04
MassachusettsA100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
DrexelCAA0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.110.1117.2417.24-0.07-0.07
Saint Joseph'sA100.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.110.1191.1891.180.090.09
DavidsonA100.110.1176.6776.670.060.06
CreightonBE0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.100.1070.0070.000.040.04
RichmondA100.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
MaineAE0.090.0910.0010.00-0.07-0.07
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0938.4638.46-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.090.0929.6329.63-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0840.7440.74-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0827.2727.27-0.04-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
LibertyBSth0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
MinnesotaB100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
XavierBE0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
DetroitHorz0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
Ohio St.B100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
ButlerBE0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
George MasonA100.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Seton HallBE0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0852.9452.940.000.00
UMBCAE0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
FurmanSC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
North FloridaASun0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Green BayHorz0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
IUPUISum0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
PittsburghACC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0690.9190.910.050.05
South FloridaAmer0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0583.3383.330.040.04
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
IPFWSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
PacificWCC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
VMISC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
RutgersB100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
KentuckySEC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
MarquetteBE0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
StanfordP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0594.1294.120.050.05
ColoradoP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
USCP120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
MaristMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
CampbellBSth0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
TexasB120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Texas TechB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
OregonP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0390.6290.620.020.02