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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Ohio

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:63.5
Current RPI:80
Expected SOS:163
Current SOS:228
Current Record:18-4
Expected Record:23-7
Current Conf Record:7-2
Expected Conf Record:11-5
Probability of Auto Bid:21.27%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-1
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:12-2
Expected OOC RPI:62
Expected OOC SOS:222



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-436.22.11%
25-544.212.46%
24-653.126.29%
23-764.429.22%
22-876.520.03%
21-989.77.82%
20-10101.81.80%
19-11116.00.26%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Ohio.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Tennessee Martin (321.8)OVCH74-65W100%0.0
11-15Lamar (102.9)SlndH85-78W100%0.0
11-20Arkansas St. (228.9)SBH69-54W100%0.0
11-25Louisville (25.3)BEA59-54L0%0.0
11-30Marshall (61.3)CUSAA68-70W100%0.0
12-3Morgan St. (264.2)MEACH61-53W100%0.0
12-7Oakland (135.3)SumA82-84W100%0.0
12-10Portland (215.5)WCCA54-72W100%0.0
12-17Wright St. (216.3)HorzA54-82W100%0.0
12-20Northern Iowa (60.5)MVCA59-76W100%0.0
12-23North Carolina A&T (266.3)MEACH82-66W100%0.0
12-30Kennesaw St. (317.6)ASunH71-63W100%0.0
1-2Robert Morris (111.2)NECH67-70L0%0.0
1-7Bowling Green (155.1)MACA67-57L0%0.0
1-11Buffalo (70.7)MACH60-52W100%0.0
1-14Akron (49.0)MACA68-63L0%0.0
1-18Kent St. (84.8)MACH87-65W100%0.0
1-21Miami OH (210.4)MACH69-65W100%0.0
1-25Western Michigan (174.1)MACH56-51W100%0.0
1-28Ball St. (222.5)MACH59-55W100%0.0
2-1Northern Illinois (337.4)MACA58-67W100%0.0
2-4Central Michigan (271.4)MACH68-42W100%0.0
2-8Toledo (277.2)MACA0-076%7.8
2-11Eastern Michigan (246.9)MACA0-084%11.0
2-15Bowling Green (155.1)MACH0-075%7.2
2-18NC Asheville (115.4)BSthH0-077%8.0
2-22Buffalo (70.7)MACA0-038%-3.3
2-25Akron (49.0)MACH0-057%1.8
2-29Kent St. (84.8)MACA0-044%-1.8
3-3Miami OH (210.4)MACA0-066%4.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Ohio's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Ohio's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Ohio.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
OhioMAC26.1526.1682.9878.9517.2515.15
AkronMAC2.714.0466.6767.640.901.42
Kent St.MAC2.714.0075.0072.081.351.77
Miami OHMAC2.654.0031.5835.46-0.98-1.16
Bowling GreenMAC2.663.9845.0047.80-0.27-0.18
BuffaloMAC2.613.9772.2269.291.161.53
Western MichiganMAC2.652.2842.8644.44-0.38-0.25
Central MichiganMAC2.652.2830.0035.43-1.06-0.66
Ball St.MAC2.662.2757.8959.540.420.43
Eastern MichiganMAC0.442.2540.9139.16-0.08-0.49
ToledoMAC0.442.2538.1041.41-0.11-0.39
Northern IllinoisMAC2.602.245.567.58-2.31-1.90
Arkansas St.SB2.481.8139.1339.65-0.54-0.37
Tennessee MartinOVC2.481.814.5510.00-2.25-1.45
Wright St.Horz2.381.7543.4842.01-0.31-0.28
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.381.7535.0038.63-0.71-0.40
LouisvilleBE2.421.7577.2771.741.320.76
LamarSlnd2.421.7565.0069.630.730.69
MarshallCUSA2.321.7261.9061.850.550.41
Morgan St.MEAC2.331.7026.3238.97-1.10-0.37
Kennesaw St.ASun2.271.709.0912.08-1.86-1.29
OaklandSum2.321.6950.0051.940.000.07
NC AshevilleBSth0.001.6768.1869.350.000.65
Northern IowaMVC2.271.6765.2263.620.690.45
PortlandWCC2.271.6722.7322.51-1.24-0.92
Robert MorrisNEC2.271.6766.6769.030.760.63
Youngstown St.Horz0.200.2350.0051.530.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.310.2365.2263.610.090.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.200.2281.8280.430.130.14
TempleA100.220.2077.2775.060.120.10
DetroitHorz0.200.2047.8349.03-0.01-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.210.1856.5253.100.030.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.160.1719.0522.37-0.10-0.10
Morehead St.OVC0.160.1745.4546.99-0.01-0.01
BelmontASun0.210.1769.5773.280.080.08
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.210.1730.0030.06-0.08-0.07
IUPUISum0.250.1734.7835.50-0.08-0.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.200.1754.1754.750.020.02
West VirginiaBE0.160.1765.2265.170.050.05
DuquesneA100.200.1759.0956.350.040.02
St. Peter'sMAAC0.160.1521.7424.58-0.09-0.07
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.1573.9175.490.070.07
EvansvilleMVC0.160.1445.4544.02-0.01-0.02
St. Mary'sWCC0.200.1490.9187.740.160.11
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.150.1447.6247.18-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.160.1434.7832.06-0.05-0.05
UABCUSA0.210.1440.9139.82-0.04-0.03
CincinnatiBE0.160.1469.5765.470.060.04
Austin PeayOVC0.150.1433.3335.97-0.05-0.04
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.210.1456.5257.720.030.02
Brigham YoungWCC0.110.1275.0076.000.050.06
DaytonA100.120.1260.8760.960.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.1268.1869.680.040.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.110.1210.0014.93-0.08-0.08
HowardMEAC0.110.1218.1822.22-0.07-0.06
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1234.7837.24-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.160.1286.9685.460.120.08
College of CharlestonSC0.050.1258.3359.980.010.02
South Carolina UpstateASun0.050.1254.5556.090.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.200.12100.0094.550.200.10
Central ArkansasSlnd0.200.1127.7829.87-0.09-0.05
CharlotteA100.200.1150.0049.450.00-0.00
ButlerHorz0.200.1150.0050.800.000.00
Western KentuckySB0.100.1134.7834.48-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeSB0.150.1183.3384.760.100.08
MemphisCUSA0.150.1169.5771.510.060.05
Missouri St.MVC0.190.1154.1757.200.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.090.1180.7780.750.060.07
SyracuseBE0.050.1195.8392.010.050.09
CampbellBSth0.050.0956.0055.650.010.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0927.2727.21-0.00-0.04
High PointBSth0.050.0931.8232.75-0.02-0.03
RadfordBSth0.000.098.7013.10-0.00-0.07
St. BonaventureA100.110.0960.0059.060.020.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0934.7834.61-0.02-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.0926.3229.71-0.05-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.0942.1149.81-0.02-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0935.2939.85-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.110.0959.0957.760.020.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0920.0019.96-0.03-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.0938.8943.93-0.02-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.160.0956.5253.770.020.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0952.3857.860.000.01
XavierA100.110.0965.2263.740.030.02
IowaB100.160.0954.1749.440.01-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.0933.3334.47-0.04-0.03
Chicago St.GWC0.110.094.769.95-0.10-0.07
PepperdineWCC0.100.0931.8233.83-0.04-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.150.0981.8281.490.100.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.0928.5726.30-0.04-0.04
TroySB0.060.0928.5730.17-0.02-0.03
Central FloridaCUSA0.110.0971.4366.600.050.03
PurdueB100.110.0965.2260.580.030.02
HamptonMEAC0.160.0936.3638.48-0.04-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.110.0969.5765.870.040.03
HoustonCUSA0.100.0947.6244.63-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.0934.7838.42-0.03-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.110.0955.0054.480.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0927.7829.58-0.02-0.04
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.110.0976.1975.940.060.04
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.110.0957.1460.750.020.02
KentuckySEC0.150.0995.8392.570.140.07
CreightonMVC0.150.0987.5085.410.110.06
Indiana St.MVC0.150.0956.5254.220.020.01
Florida InternationalSB0.050.0933.3337.16-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0976.1972.910.030.04
RiceCUSA0.150.0947.6246.46-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.150.0960.8759.760.030.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.0918.1821.13-0.07-0.05
DePaulBE0.110.0850.0042.830.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.100.0840.0040.18-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.0850.0048.900.00-0.00
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.090.0835.0035.31-0.03-0.02
LipscombASun0.100.0843.4843.82-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.090.0819.0521.29-0.06-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.0878.2672.340.060.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0843.4844.25-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.090.0852.1750.090.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0862.5062.060.010.02
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.050.0834.7835.20-0.01-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0861.9063.520.020.02
North FloridaASun0.100.0845.8346.68-0.01-0.01
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.050.0880.0078.060.030.05
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.050.0835.0039.38-0.01-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.140.088.7012.13-0.12-0.06
PittsburghBE0.090.0860.8758.160.020.01
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0617.3919.81-0.04-0.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0672.2271.970.000.03
CornellIvy0.060.0636.8441.45-0.02-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0634.7838.77-0.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0637.5041.54-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0647.3752.87-0.000.00
Virginia Military InstBSth0.000.0645.0044.15-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.110.0642.8641.13-0.02-0.01
UtahP120.050.0618.1815.01-0.03-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.0638.1042.78-0.03-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0633.3333.82-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.060.0612.5013.44-0.04-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.050.0645.4544.66-0.00-0.01
Utah ValleyGWC0.110.0654.5557.690.010.01
ConnecticutBE0.000.0668.1863.990.000.02
ArizonaP120.100.0666.6768.550.030.02
Florida AtlanticSB0.100.0636.3639.72-0.03-0.01
St. LouisA100.100.0677.2777.670.050.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0631.8242.13-0.02-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0616.6723.02-0.04-0.03
East CarolinaCUSA0.000.0644.4441.71-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0634.7832.08-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0645.4541.20-0.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0641.1842.61-0.01-0.01
NC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0639.1336.10-0.01-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0625.0023.75-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0626.3229.79-0.00-0.02
Southern MississippiCUSA0.050.0685.7182.180.040.04
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.050.0619.0524.61-0.03-0.03
Texas St.Slnd0.000.0622.2227.62-0.00-0.03
Utah St.WAC0.050.0650.0052.930.000.00
IonaMAAC0.100.0679.1780.100.060.03
Iowa St.B120.100.0673.9168.430.050.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0647.3742.16-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0617.3924.41-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.050.0624.0024.86-0.02-0.03
DenverSB0.090.0670.8372.230.040.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.100.0652.3852.860.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0617.3922.00-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.068.708.99-0.08-0.05
MercerASun0.050.0670.8371.640.020.02
North TexasSB0.090.0650.0050.010.000.00
Seattleind0.090.0623.5333.28-0.05-0.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0626.3228.83-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahSum0.050.0645.4544.30-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.100.0631.8231.31-0.04-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0652.6348.410.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0682.6180.420.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.100.0556.5250.270.010.00
BryantNEC0.050.058.3310.86-0.04-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0545.4545.70-0.00-0.00
MonmouthNEC0.090.0528.0028.91-0.04-0.02
QuinnipiacNEC0.050.0556.5257.150.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0544.0045.89-0.01-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0521.7422.76-0.00-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0355.0060.330.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0386.9683.160.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0370.8364.420.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0340.9143.66-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.060.0350.0056.760.000.00
Georgia St.CAA0.050.0366.6769.690.020.01
HawaiiWAC0.050.0357.1453.120.010.00
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.060.0313.6416.35-0.04-0.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0370.0073.280.020.01
NC GreensboroSC0.050.0334.7833.46-0.02-0.01
NevadaWAC0.050.0380.9576.420.030.02
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.060.0382.6181.440.040.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0362.5062.490.010.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.060.0325.0025.13-0.03-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0355.5658.010.010.00
WashingtonP120.050.0369.5766.540.020.01
Washington St.P120.050.0350.0048.170.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0330.0037.30-0.02-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0314.2917.17-0.04-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0350.0051.730.000.00
George MasonCAA0.000.0376.0072.500.000.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0369.5761.310.020.01
NebraskaB100.050.0352.3846.680.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0369.5768.900.020.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.000.0338.1037.86-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0347.0650.75-0.000.00
Texas ChristianMWC0.050.0357.1449.540.01-0.00
Texas El PasoCUSA0.050.0343.4843.31-0.01-0.00
TulaneCUSA0.050.0361.9058.590.010.00
TulsaCUSA0.050.0360.8759.050.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0335.0035.26-0.02-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0368.1869.100.020.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0369.5765.150.020.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0356.5248.810.01-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0327.2735.02-0.02-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.0330.4329.50-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.050.0366.6762.650.020.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0366.6760.800.020.01
DukeACC0.050.0386.3683.090.040.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0382.6177.630.030.02
GramblingSWAC0.050.0315.0015.73-0.03-0.02
IdahoWAC0.050.0347.6251.08-0.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0319.0525.52-0.03-0.01
MichiganB100.050.0372.7366.810.020.01
MissouriB120.050.0391.3087.180.040.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0330.0031.54-0.02-0.01
Old DominionCAA0.050.0360.0058.290.010.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.0352.3852.870.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0356.5255.200.000.00
WisconsinB100.050.0375.0073.970.020.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0380.9577.380.030.01
La SalleA100.050.0370.8368.820.020.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0371.4373.350.020.01
Long IslandNEC0.050.0370.8371.050.020.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0379.1775.980.030.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0326.0928.60-0.02-0.01
Notre DameBE0.050.0365.2262.650.020.01
PennsylvaniaIvy0.050.0354.5556.840.000.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0337.5038.52-0.01-0.01
RutgersBE0.050.0350.0046.810.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0365.2263.740.020.01
South FloridaBE0.000.0354.5548.600.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0356.5255.950.010.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0343.4840.28-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0345.4546.08-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.050.0382.6184.570.030.02