live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Ohio

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:81.0
Current RPI:81
Expected SOS:102
Current SOS:102
Current Record:20-11
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:12-8
Expected Conf Record:12-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:11-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:84
Expected OOC SOS:165



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1181.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Ohio.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Florida Gulf Coast (209.0)ASunH85-75W100%0.0
11-16Tennessee St. (152.0)OVCH75-67W100%0.0
11-20Tulsa (58.0)AmerN90-88L0%0.0
11-21Norfolk St. (225.0)MEACN71-93W100%0.0
11-23Florida St. (82.0)ACCN90-81L0%0.0
12-1Marshall (128.0)CUSAH85-70W100%0.0
12-5St. Bonaventure (30.0)A10A81-68L0%0.0
12-12Cleveland St. (278.0)HorzA67-76W100%0.0
12-17Jackson St. (221.0)SWACH72-67W100%0.0
12-21Arkansas Pine Bluff (311.0)SWACH65-58W100%0.0
12-30UC Riverside (267.0)BWH81-59W100%0.0
1-6Northern Illinois (136.0)MACA80-69L0%0.0
1-9Ball St. (179.0)MACH79-73W100%0.0
1-12Bowling Green (200.0)MACH75-91L0%0.0
1-16Kent St. (124.0)MACA89-82L0%0.0
1-19Western Michigan (202.0)MACH82-64W100%0.0
1-23Central Michigan (156.0)MACA72-49L0%0.0
1-26Toledo (182.0)MACA79-81W100%0.0
1-29Kent St. (124.0)MACH72-61W100%0.0
2-2Akron (34.0)MACH68-80L0%0.0
2-6Northern Illinois (136.0)MACH80-69W100%0.0
2-9Ball St. (179.0)MACA69-72W100%0.0
2-12Buffalo (90.0)MACA75-94W100%0.0
2-16Eastern Michigan (113.0)MACH86-64W100%0.0
2-20Miami OH (195.0)MACH76-64W100%0.0
2-23Bowling Green (200.0)MACA87-82L0%0.0
2-27Buffalo (90.0)MACH103-96W100%0.0
3-1Akron (34.0)MACA91-76L0%0.0
3-4Miami OH (195.0)MACA65-67W100%0.0
3-10Northern Illinois (136.0)MACN79-62W100%0.0
3-11Buffalo (90.0)MACN74-88L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Ohio's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Ohio's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Ohio.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
OhioMAC26.3726.3764.1264.127.457.45
BuffaloMAC5.675.6760.0060.001.131.13
Northern IllinoisMAC5.515.5161.5461.541.271.27
AkronMAC4.244.2474.1974.192.052.05
Bowling GreenMAC4.164.1640.0040.00-0.83-0.83
Miami OHMAC4.154.1540.0040.00-0.83-0.83
Kent St.MAC4.054.0558.6258.620.700.70
Ball St.MAC3.993.9962.0762.070.960.96
Eastern MichiganMAC2.522.5250.0050.000.000.00
Western MichiganMAC2.512.5137.9337.93-0.61-0.61
ToledoMAC2.502.5053.3353.330.170.17
Central MichiganMAC2.472.4746.4346.43-0.18-0.18
Cleveland St.Horz1.791.7924.1424.14-0.93-0.93
Jackson St.SWAC1.711.7154.8454.840.170.17
St. BonaventureA101.691.6972.4172.410.760.76
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.661.6625.0025.00-0.83-0.83
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.661.6657.1457.140.240.24
MarshallCUSA1.661.6653.1253.120.100.10
Florida St.ACC1.611.6158.0658.060.260.26
Norfolk St.MEAC1.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC1.611.6166.6766.670.540.54
TulsaAmer1.611.6163.3363.330.430.43
UC RiversideBW1.611.6140.0040.00-0.32-0.32
Wright St.Horz0.240.2460.6160.610.050.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.230.2354.8454.840.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.210.2130.0030.00-0.08-0.08
LipscombASun0.180.1832.2632.26-0.07-0.07
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.180.1832.2632.26-0.06-0.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.180.1835.7135.71-0.05-0.05
DetroitHorz0.160.1648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.160.1663.6463.640.040.04
CincinnatiAmer0.150.1568.7568.750.060.06
CanisiusMAAC0.150.1542.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.150.1562.8662.860.040.04
StetsonASun0.140.1426.6726.67-0.07-0.07
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.140.1410.7110.71-0.11-0.11
FIUCUSA0.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.140.1428.5728.57-0.06-0.06
Chicago St.WAC0.140.143.453.45-0.13-0.13
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.130.1360.7160.710.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.1324.1424.14-0.07-0.07
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.130.1370.9770.970.050.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.130.1346.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.130.1314.2914.29-0.09-0.09
VermontAE0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.130.1379.4179.410.070.07
VCUA100.130.1370.5970.590.050.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.120.1222.8622.86-0.07-0.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
SouthernSWAC0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
South DakotaSum0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
NJITASun0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
OaklandHorz0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
ValparaisoHorz0.110.1180.0080.000.060.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.100.1083.3383.330.070.07
IUPUISum0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.100.1025.9325.93-0.05-0.05
UCFAmer0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Iowa St.B120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
BelmontOVC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
IdahoBSky0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Ohio St.B100.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
MassachusettsA100.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
HowardMEAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Penn St.B100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0811.1111.11-0.06-0.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
IPFWSum0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
SyracuseACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
PittsburghACC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
HawaiiBW0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
IonaMAAC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
UTEPCUSA0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0722.2222.22-0.04-0.04
DelawareCAA0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Montana St.BSky0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
DavidsonA100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
HofstraCAA0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0535.2935.29-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
XavierBE0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
BYUWCC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
FordhamA100.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
George MasonA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0382.1482.140.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
IowaB100.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Notre DameACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
OregonP120.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
NebraskaB100.020.0247.0647.06-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
WyomingMWC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00