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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.

Ohio

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:204.0
Current RPI:204
Expected SOS:130
Current SOS:130
Current Record:13-17
Expected Record:13-17
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:194
Expected OOC SOS:189


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-17204.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Ohio.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Alabama A&M (350.0)SWACH61-53W100%0.0
11-16Clemson (11.0)ACCN76-81L0%0.0
11-17Dayton (146.0)A10N79-65L0%0.0
11-19Indiana St. (184.0)MVCN96-94W100%0.0
11-24Mount St. Mary's (225.0)NECH96-77W100%0.0
11-28Iona (107.0)MAACH88-93L0%0.0
12-1Coppin St. (343.0)MEACH80-37W100%0.0
12-7Maryland (74.0)B10A87-62L0%0.0
12-10Western Kentucky (39.0)CUSAH89-84W100%0.0
12-16Marshall (87.0)CUSAA99-96L0%0.0
12-20Prairie View A&M (247.0)SWACH84-65W100%0.0
1-2Central Michigan (167.0)MACA75-50L0%0.0
1-6Northern Illinois (241.0)MACH78-68W100%0.0
1-9Ball St. (126.0)MACH68-75L0%0.0
1-12Kent St. (154.0)MACA70-69L0%0.0
1-16Toledo (75.0)MACH57-91L0%0.0
1-20Eastern Michigan (116.0)MACA66-72W100%0.0
1-23Akron (227.0)MACA71-68L0%0.0
1-26Buffalo (25.0)MACH66-73L0%0.0
1-30Bowling Green (193.0)MACA66-50L0%0.0
2-3Central Michigan (167.0)MACH98-101L0%0.0
2-6Akron (227.0)MACH99-75W100%0.0
2-10Western Michigan (177.0)MACA69-60L0%0.0
2-13Toledo (75.0)MACA82-74L0%0.0
2-17Miami OH (159.0)MACH92-87W100%0.0
2-20Kent St. (154.0)MACH88-76W100%0.0
2-24Buffalo (25.0)MACA108-82L0%0.0
2-27Bowling Green (193.0)MACH75-59W100%0.0
3-2Miami OH (159.0)MACA66-75W100%0.0
3-5Miami OH (159.0)MACA68-55L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Ohio's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Ohio's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Ohio.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
OhioMAC26.2826.2839.5239.52-5.51-5.51
Miami OHMAC5.745.7446.4346.43-0.41-0.41
BuffaloMAC4.244.2474.1974.192.052.05
Kent St.MAC4.224.2248.3948.39-0.14-0.14
AkronMAC4.214.2141.3841.38-0.73-0.73
ToledoMAC4.204.2064.5264.521.221.22
Bowling GreenMAC4.134.1346.4346.43-0.30-0.30
Central MichiganMAC4.104.1050.0050.000.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC2.582.5860.7160.710.550.55
Ball St.MAC2.552.5556.6756.670.340.34
Western MichiganMAC2.522.5248.2848.28-0.09-0.09
Northern IllinoisMAC2.492.4937.9337.93-0.60-0.60
MarshallCUSA1.851.8568.7568.750.690.69
Western KentuckyCUSA1.771.7771.8871.880.770.77
DaytonA101.751.7543.3343.33-0.23-0.23
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.721.7246.8846.88-0.11-0.11
Indiana St.MVC1.721.7239.2939.29-0.37-0.37
Alabama A&MSWAC1.721.7210.0010.00-1.37-1.37
Coppin St.MEAC1.691.6916.1316.13-1.15-1.15
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.691.6955.1755.170.180.18
ClemsonACC1.671.6770.9770.970.700.70
IonaMAAC1.671.6759.3859.380.310.31
MarylandB101.671.6756.6756.670.220.22
Jackson St.SWAC0.260.2633.3333.33-0.09-0.09
Old DominionCUSA0.240.2478.1278.120.130.13
Cleveland St.Horz0.210.2132.3532.35-0.07-0.07
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.210.2112.5012.50-0.16-0.16
SyracuseACC0.210.2160.6160.610.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.210.2171.8871.880.090.09
Texas SouthernSWAC0.210.2144.1244.12-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.200.2058.0658.060.030.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.140.1451.5251.520.000.00
MichiganB100.140.1479.4179.410.080.08
OaklandHorz0.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
ValparaisoMVC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.130.1375.0075.000.070.07
Austin PeayOVC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.130.1325.0025.00-0.06-0.06
SouthernSWAC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Green BayHorz0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.110.1184.3884.380.070.07
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
PennIvy0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
ManhattanMAAC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1017.8617.86-0.06-0.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1076.6776.670.050.05
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
IndianaB100.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
North FloridaASun0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
WagnerNEC0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Notre DameACC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
DavidsonA100.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
HartfordAE0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
MissouriSEC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
TulaneAmer0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
PurdueB100.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
Rhode IslandA100.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
WisconsinB100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.080.0864.7164.710.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
AlbanyAE0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
NJITASun0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
UTSACUSA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
XavierBE0.080.0884.8584.850.050.05
BradleyMVC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
DrakeMVC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
AuburnSEC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0644.4444.44-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.060.069.689.68-0.04-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.060.063.333.33-0.05-0.05
DrexelCAA0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
MarquetteBE0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0610.3410.34-0.04-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
UMKCWAC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
BucknellPat0.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
DuquesneA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
MinnesotaB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
USCP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
TulsaAmer0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
RutgersB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0593.9493.940.050.05
CornellIvy0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
KansasB120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
IdahoBSky0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
ButlerBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
IUPUIHorz0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
RichmondA100.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.036.676.67-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
NavyPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
YaleIvy0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00