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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Ohio

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:87.0
Current RPI:87
Expected SOS:124
Current SOS:124
Current Record:22-11
Expected Record:22-11
Current Conf Record:13-8
Expected Conf Record:13-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-1
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:58
Expected OOC SOS:128



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-1187.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Ohio.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Northern Iowa (109.0)MVCH75-64W100%0.0
11-12Ohio St. (24.0)B10A79-69L0%0.0
11-17Valparaiso (184.0)HorzH76-72W100%0.0
11-20Morgan St. (225.0)MEACA62-65W100%0.0
11-26Mercer (81.0)ASunH76-67W100%0.0
11-30Evansville (214.0)MVCH81-59W100%0.0
12-7Oakland (181.0)HorzA73-56L0%0.0
12-14Alabama A&M (271.0)SWACH72-47W100%0.0
12-18Massachusetts (23.0)A10H71-83L0%0.0
12-22Richmond (75.0)A10A69-70W100%0.0
12-30Longwood (337.0)BSthH78-43W100%0.0
1-4UNC Asheville (201.0)BSthA70-79W100%0.0
1-8Kent St. (213.0)MACA53-59W100%0.0
1-12Akron (93.0)MACH80-83L0%0.0
1-15Ball St. (309.0)MACH71-51W100%0.0
1-18Northern Illinois (217.0)MACA46-65W100%0.0
1-22Bowling Green (194.0)MACH56-58L0%0.0
1-25Eastern Michigan (86.0)MACA56-58W100%0.0
1-29Central Michigan (294.0)MACH71-67W100%0.0
2-1Toledo (38.0)MACH95-90W100%0.0
2-5Western Michigan (66.0)MACA90-74L0%0.0
2-8Miami OH (161.0)MACH82-75W100%0.0
2-12Toledo (38.0)MACA82-76L0%0.0
2-15Buffalo (106.0)MACA70-73W100%0.0
2-19Western Michigan (66.0)MACH63-73L0%0.0
2-22Akron (93.0)MACA50-66W100%0.0
2-26Buffalo (106.0)MACH64-69L0%0.0
3-1Kent St. (213.0)MACH61-75L0%0.0
3-4Bowling Green (194.0)MACA61-72W100%0.0
3-8Miami OH (161.0)MACA76-82W100%0.0
3-10Ball St. (309.0)MACH76-64W100%0.0
3-12Miami OH (161.0)MACN63-55W100%0.0
3-13Akron (93.0)MACN83-77L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Ohio's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Ohio's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Ohio.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
OhioMAC26.4126.4164.6764.677.757.75
Miami OHMAC5.385.3848.1548.15-0.20-0.20
AkronMAC5.355.3563.3363.331.431.43
Western MichiganMAC3.923.9268.9768.971.491.49
Kent St.MAC3.883.8848.2848.28-0.13-0.13
Bowling GreenMAC3.853.8534.4834.48-1.19-1.19
BuffaloMAC3.843.8465.3865.381.181.18
Ball St.MAC3.823.8211.5411.54-2.94-2.94
ToledoMAC3.803.8083.3383.332.542.54
Eastern MichiganMAC2.532.5358.0658.060.410.41
Northern IllinoisMAC2.412.4146.6746.67-0.16-0.16
Central MichiganMAC2.362.3628.5728.57-1.01-1.01
EvansvilleMVC1.691.6940.0040.00-0.34-0.34
ValparaisoHorz1.671.6751.7251.720.060.06
MassachusettsA101.661.6674.1974.190.800.80
OaklandHorz1.641.6433.3333.33-0.55-0.55
MercerASun1.561.5676.6776.670.830.83
Alabama A&MSWAC1.561.5644.4444.44-0.17-0.17
Northern IowaMVC1.561.5651.7251.720.050.05
UNC AshevilleBSth1.541.5450.0050.000.000.00
LongwoodBSth1.541.5414.8114.81-1.08-1.08
Ohio St.B101.541.5472.7372.730.700.70
RichmondA101.541.5459.3859.380.290.29
Morgan St.MEAC1.541.5450.0050.000.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.340.3463.3363.330.090.09
DetroitHorz0.310.3136.6736.67-0.08-0.08
Southern IllinoisMVC0.250.2540.6240.62-0.05-0.05
Wright St.Horz0.250.2556.2556.250.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.210.2135.4835.48-0.06-0.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.200.2041.3841.38-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.170.1760.6160.610.040.04
DrakeMVC0.170.1746.6746.67-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.160.1641.1841.18-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.150.1567.7467.740.050.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.150.1513.7913.79-0.11-0.11
Robert MorrisNEC0.150.1561.7661.760.040.04
XavierBE0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
USC UpstateASun0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.130.1330.3030.30-0.05-0.05
PresbyterianBSth0.130.1313.3313.33-0.09-0.09
James MadisonCAA0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Missouri St.MVC0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
BradleyMVC0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
UICHorz0.120.1213.7913.79-0.09-0.09
IPFWSum0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
Illinois St.MVC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Wichita St.MVC0.120.12100.00100.000.120.12
Green BayHorz0.120.1277.7877.780.070.07
Saint LouisA100.120.1280.6580.650.070.07
Rhode IslandA100.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
VCUA100.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.120.1216.6716.67-0.08-0.08
Oral RobertsSlnd0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
RadfordBSth0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
WinthropBSth0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
High PointBSth0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
NiagaraMAAC0.100.1021.2121.21-0.06-0.06
Notre DameACC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.1013.7913.79-0.07-0.07
La SalleA100.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
George MasonA100.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
CampbellBSth0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
LibertyBSth0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
VMIBSth0.080.0855.5655.560.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0814.8114.81-0.06-0.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Arizona St.P120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
UMKCWAC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
MarylandACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Penn St.B100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0778.5778.570.040.04
North FloridaASun0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
George WashingtonA100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
IllinoisB100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
DuquesneA100.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
Oregon St.P120.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
MinnesotaB100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
CornellIvy0.050.053.703.70-0.05-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0583.8783.870.030.03
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0570.3770.370.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckySB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
IowaB100.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
MichiganB100.040.0475.7675.760.020.02
BrownIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
St. John'sBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
TCUB120.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
CaliforniaP120.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
DenverSum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
IUPUISum0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
MaristMAAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
OregonP120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
TexasB120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
TowsonCAA0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.020.0251.8551.850.000.00
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
ElonSC0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
LSUSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
SyracuseACC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0294.1294.120.020.02
HofstraCAA0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
AmericanPat0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
BryantNEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0234.6234.62-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00