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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Ohio

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:88.0
Current RPI:70
Expected SOS:195
Current SOS:204
Current Record:5-1
Expected Record:20-8
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-2
Current OOC Record:5-1
Expected OOC Record:8-2
Expected OOC RPI:69
Expected OOC SOS:273



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-123.00.02%
26-224.00.16%
25-331.00.80%
24-437.62.72%
23-547.36.68%
22-657.513.01%
21-769.917.45%
20-884.319.26%
19-9100.416.63%
18-10117.611.88%
17-11136.16.54%
16-12155.93.16%
15-13177.81.26%
14-14197.30.36%
13-15221.00.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Ohio.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Southern (233.8)SWACH77-67W100%0.0
11-14Sam Houston St. (166.2)SlndH96-75W100%0.0
11-18Georgia Tech (192.1)ACCA61-67W100%0.0
11-25Tennessee Tech (304.2)OVCH68-57W100%0.0
11-30Marshall (120.3)CUSAA98-88L0%0.0
12-3Bryant (225.3)NECH79-53W100%0.0
12-10Iona (105.1)MAACA0-048%-0.8
12-14Milwaukee (226.2)HorzH0-088%14.1
12-17Cleveland St. (251.7)HorzH0-090%15.3
12-21Western Kentucky (249.8)CUSAA0-075%7.9
1-3Western Michigan (219.2)MACH0-082%11.1
1-6Kent St. (195.3)MACH0-074%7.7
1-10Buffalo (134.9)MACA0-053%1.0
1-14Eastern Michigan (104.9)MACH0-066%4.9
1-17Akron (83.8)MACA0-037%-3.9
1-21Northern Illinois (208.8)MACA0-061%3.2
1-24Toledo (172.5)MACH0-077%8.8
1-28Bowling Green (237.3)MACA0-066%4.8
1-31Western Michigan (219.2)MACA0-066%4.8
2-4Akron (83.8)MACH0-058%2.3
2-7Central Michigan (150.9)MACH0-075%8.0
2-11Ball St. (226.5)MACA0-062%3.7
2-14Eastern Michigan (104.9)MACA0-045%-1.4
2-18Bowling Green (237.3)MACH0-082%11.1
2-21Miami OH (294.8)MACA0-080%10.1
2-25Kent St. (195.3)MACA0-055%1.4
2-28Buffalo (134.9)MACH0-073%7.2
3-3Miami OH (294.8)MACH0-091%16.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Ohio's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Ohio's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Ohio.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
OhioMAC28.6326.2986.3672.7220.8211.95
AkronMAC0.004.4671.4370.140.001.80
Kent St.MAC0.004.4057.1455.520.000.49
Miami OHMAC0.004.4037.5029.53-0.00-1.80
Bowling GreenMAC0.004.3725.0041.84-0.00-0.71
BuffaloMAC0.004.3733.3353.14-0.000.27
Western MichiganMAC0.004.3416.6736.62-0.00-1.16
Eastern MichiganMAC0.004.3050.0057.020.000.60
Central MichiganMAC0.522.6875.0059.920.260.53
ToledoMAC0.002.6837.5048.41-0.00-0.09
Ball St.MAC0.002.6550.0050.600.000.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.002.6542.8645.72-0.00-0.23
Tennessee TechOVC10.461.9728.5728.73-4.48-0.84
Cleveland St.Horz0.001.9728.5731.82-0.00-0.72
MarshallCUSA8.331.9357.1451.941.190.08
Georgia TechACC10.381.8866.6737.633.46-0.47
SouthernSWAC10.141.8850.0061.060.000.42
Sam Houston St.Slnd10.281.8860.0060.182.060.38
MilwaukeeHorz0.001.8537.5038.85-0.00-0.41
Western KentuckyCUSA0.001.8537.5035.35-0.00-0.54
BryantNEC8.331.7925.0048.12-4.17-0.07
IonaMAAC0.001.7957.1464.940.000.53
DetroitHorz0.000.310.0021.30-0.00-0.18
Green BayHorz0.000.2737.5048.85-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.2762.5052.060.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC1.040.250.0013.32-1.04-0.18
OaklandHorz0.000.2485.7177.000.000.13
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.2137.5038.08-0.00-0.05
PittsburghACC0.000.1975.0048.980.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.1825.0031.76-0.00-0.07
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.1857.1453.860.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1825.0035.75-0.00-0.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1887.5075.730.000.09
IUPUISum0.000.1633.3351.57-0.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1542.8644.89-0.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.150.0017.16-0.00-0.10
BelmontOVC0.000.1557.1464.500.000.04
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1585.7175.250.000.08
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1537.5044.42-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.520.1550.0050.980.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.1550.0059.840.000.03
SyracuseACC0.000.1362.5062.080.000.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.120.0025.17-0.00-0.06
CreightonBE0.000.12100.0076.540.000.07
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1212.5033.31-0.00-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1242.8650.98-0.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.1233.3336.67-0.00-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1230.0045.49-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.1220.0035.46-0.00-0.03
NevadaMWC0.000.1277.7871.770.000.05
South DakotaSum0.000.1250.0046.820.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1262.5050.630.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1262.5066.500.000.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0942.8650.33-0.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0912.5030.51-0.00-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.090.0023.90-0.00-0.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.090.0032.29-0.00-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.520.0914.2943.08-0.37-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0975.0070.350.000.04
North TexasCUSA0.000.0933.3331.35-0.00-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.460.09100.0092.200.460.08
Morehead St.OVC0.520.0916.6738.87-0.35-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0944.4453.29-0.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0983.3377.290.000.05
Western IllinoisSum0.000.090.0016.33-0.00-0.06
FIUCUSA0.000.0914.2935.05-0.00-0.03
DelawareCAA0.000.0950.0041.700.00-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0950.0045.920.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0962.5044.840.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.0957.1452.140.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0916.6749.78-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0950.0060.950.000.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0987.5082.440.000.06
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0950.0045.130.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.460.09100.0076.970.460.05
WoffordSC0.000.090.0034.69-0.00-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0916.6739.99-0.00-0.02
NJITASun0.000.0944.4451.58-0.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0740.0054.81-0.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0733.3351.98-0.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.070.0038.78-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0725.0042.78-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0742.8640.38-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.070.0038.43-0.00-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.070.0017.92-0.00-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0737.5050.92-0.000.00
SMUAmer0.000.0766.6766.650.000.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0725.0055.44-0.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0762.5071.400.000.03
BaylorB120.690.06100.0076.070.690.03
IdahoBSky0.690.0650.0053.130.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0612.5033.18-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0650.0066.380.000.02
TulaneAmer0.600.0612.5023.82-0.45-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.0657.1448.110.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.000.0612.5028.64-0.00-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.000.0650.0056.890.000.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0662.5070.890.000.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0642.8643.55-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0612.5030.17-0.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.520.0611.1132.47-0.41-0.02
MaineAE0.000.0614.2923.40-0.00-0.03
MercerSC0.000.0642.8647.68-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0628.5734.49-0.00-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0675.0055.480.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0685.7169.920.000.02
UCFAmer0.000.0685.7175.800.000.03
UCLAP120.000.06100.0086.650.000.05
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0084.740.000.04
XavierBE0.000.0687.5070.880.000.03
Montana St.BSky0.000.0642.8656.48-0.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.600.0650.0044.700.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0628.5727.38-0.00-0.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0671.4354.560.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0662.5052.400.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0671.4358.830.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0625.0041.19-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0611.1149.12-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0036.38-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0675.0050.980.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0644.4438.15-0.00-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0650.0040.690.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0612.5026.05-0.00-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0633.3340.37-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0655.5649.660.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.000.0628.5752.65-0.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0662.5046.490.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0644.4443.25-0.00-0.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0625.0023.62-0.00-0.03
TexasB120.000.0650.0038.730.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0628.5738.92-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0688.8967.470.000.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0657.1472.530.000.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0020.63-0.00-0.03
RiceCUSA0.000.0675.0070.570.000.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0620.0017.37-0.00-0.04
UTSACUSA0.000.0625.0029.90-0.00-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0662.5055.890.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0644.4434.60-0.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0677.7872.210.000.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0628.5737.54-0.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0657.1450.790.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0657.1450.860.000.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0633.3350.05-0.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0622.2232.01-0.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0387.5069.040.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0340.0041.72-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0342.8637.05-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0320.0042.14-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0357.1449.420.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0360.0062.420.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0342.8641.13-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0325.0043.29-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.000.0362.5054.660.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.830.030.0022.47-0.83-0.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0388.8966.920.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0357.1444.830.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0357.1433.200.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0375.0066.120.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0312.5031.01-0.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0320.0022.08-0.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.0340.0039.19-0.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0357.1449.640.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.000.0342.8657.52-0.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.0366.6751.140.000.00
KentuckySEC0.000.0387.5082.220.000.02
Little RockSB0.000.0366.6761.400.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0360.0058.780.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0342.8633.51-0.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0377.7877.640.000.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0350.0042.770.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0342.8638.35-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0333.3346.06-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0357.1451.740.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0357.1429.760.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0337.5025.74-0.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.460.0350.0043.770.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.520.0375.0074.590.260.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0020.72-0.00-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.0371.4337.680.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.0390.0080.060.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0383.3379.920.000.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.460.0371.4355.680.200.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0357.1451.810.000.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0333.3349.39-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0362.5060.090.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0320.0021.92-0.00-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.460.0316.6729.83-0.31-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0387.5075.690.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0375.0056.270.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.0377.7866.740.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0325.0048.70-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.460.0333.3338.56-0.15-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0362.5062.120.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0387.5081.910.000.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.520.0362.5074.160.130.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0312.5034.49-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.460.0375.0066.090.230.01
Ohio St.B100.520.0377.7862.010.290.01
Penn St.B100.600.0366.6746.170.20-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0342.8645.34-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0325.0023.99-0.00-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0325.0040.17-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0025.31-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0375.0072.930.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.0388.8978.430.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.500.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0377.7855.180.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.520.0328.5723.02-0.22-0.02
YaleIvy0.460.0342.8663.63-0.070.01
DrakeMVC0.000.030.0020.21-0.00-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0089.590.000.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0342.8653.80-0.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0033.71-0.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0362.5042.780.00-0.00