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Through games of Jan 27, 2015.


Ohio

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:211.2
Current RPI:199
Expected SOS:91
Current SOS:92
Current Record:7-11
Expected Record:10-19
Current Conf Record:2-5
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-2
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:219
Expected OOC SOS:156



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-13101.00.01%
15-14125.70.24%
14-15143.11.15%
13-16162.45.16%
12-17182.613.16%
11-18201.123.37%
10-19217.727.31%
9-20232.620.55%
8-21248.47.82%
7-22262.21.22%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Ohio.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Appalachian St. (242.9)SBH73-47W100%0.0
11-19Florida Gulf Coast (133.9)ASunA79-62L0%0.0
11-25Arkansas Pine Bluff (304.8)SWACH69-60W100%0.0
11-29Belmont (125.3)OVCH81-83L0%0.0
12-6St. Bonaventure (141.8)A10H70-80L0%0.0
12-13Alcorn St. (342.6)SWACH66-55W100%0.0
12-18Evansville (77.0)MVCA81-69L0%0.0
12-22George Washington (54.1)A10N77-49L0%0.0
12-23DePaul (163.1)BEN78-99W100%0.0
12-25Nebraska (107.2)B10N71-58L0%0.0
12-30UNC Wilmington (151.5)CAAH72-53W100%0.0
1-7Northern Illinois (228.8)MACH60-70L0%0.0
1-10Bowling Green (67.5)MACA69-54L0%0.0
1-14Toledo (91.5)MACH73-80L0%0.0
1-17Kent St. (90.7)MACA69-59L0%0.0
1-21Ball St. (205.5)MACA73-82W100%0.0
1-24Buffalo (45.5)MACH63-61W100%0.0
1-27Eastern Michigan (143.5)MACA76-40L0%0.0
1-31Central Michigan (78.4)MACA0-09%-14.5
2-4Akron (105.2)MACH0-035%-4.2
2-7Eastern Michigan (143.5)MACH0-035%-4.2
2-10Central Michigan (78.4)MACH0-024%-7.6
2-14Miami OH (267.3)MACA0-044%-1.6
2-18Western Michigan (130.3)MACA0-022%-8.7
2-21Kent St. (90.7)MACH0-034%-4.4
2-24Bowling Green (67.5)MACH0-030%-5.9
2-28Akron (105.2)MACA0-016%-11.0
3-3Buffalo (45.5)MACA0-011%-13.8
3-6Miami OH (267.3)MACH0-068%5.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Ohio's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Ohio's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Ohio.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
OhioMAC26.3426.2933.7531.03-8.56-9.98
BuffaloMAC2.944.2972.2267.391.311.49
Miami OHMAC0.454.2931.5829.56-0.17-1.75
AkronMAC0.384.2568.4263.050.141.11
Kent St.MAC3.184.2272.2265.671.411.32
Bowling GreenMAC3.174.2275.0070.511.591.73
Central MichiganMAC0.454.1973.3371.470.211.80
Eastern MichiganMAC3.104.1753.3355.160.210.43
Northern IllinoisMAC3.162.6037.5036.05-0.79-0.73
ToledoMAC2.932.5757.8957.290.460.38
Ball St.MAC3.022.5737.5037.39-0.75-0.65
Western MichiganMAC0.302.5761.1155.440.070.28
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC2.851.9130.0037.76-1.14-0.47
EvansvilleMVC2.851.8173.6868.811.350.68
St. BonaventureA102.851.8158.8254.530.500.16
DePaulBE2.931.7855.0045.510.29-0.16
George WashingtonA102.841.7875.0068.601.420.66
Alcorn St.SWAC2.841.7817.6522.77-1.84-0.97
BelmontOVC2.851.7561.1161.680.630.41
Appalachian St.SB2.781.7247.0642.39-0.16-0.26
Florida Gulf CoastASun2.781.7258.8265.290.490.53
NebraskaB102.781.7257.8947.730.44-0.08
UNC WilmingtonCAA2.781.7258.8256.910.490.24
DaytonA100.250.2784.2179.310.170.16
Wright St.Horz0.300.2147.3748.02-0.02-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.220.2125.0031.42-0.11-0.08
Youngstown St.Horz0.160.1935.0034.49-0.05-0.06
NorthwesternB100.000.1850.0043.500.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.230.1821.0526.17-0.14-0.09
DrakeMVC0.150.1815.7917.73-0.10-0.12
Grambling St.SWAC0.220.170.006.65-0.22-0.15
Kennesaw St.ASun0.230.1525.0025.67-0.11-0.07
Coppin St.MEAC0.160.1510.5319.88-0.12-0.09
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.220.1510.0015.25-0.18-0.10
North Dakota St.Sum0.150.1561.1160.470.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.210.1564.2967.430.060.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.150.1525.0037.83-0.08-0.04
VCUA100.210.1485.0082.330.150.09
BradleyMVC0.070.1330.0031.26-0.03-0.05
LipscombASun0.150.1341.1842.84-0.03-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.1247.3750.39-0.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.160.1233.3334.80-0.05-0.04
OaklandHorz0.160.1236.8442.20-0.04-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.140.1238.8943.41-0.03-0.02
Michigan St.B100.220.1265.0063.270.070.03
MassachusettsA100.150.1252.6353.110.010.01
DrexelCAA0.150.1227.7829.47-0.07-0.05
ElonCAA0.000.1247.3744.14-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.230.1265.0063.250.070.03
Chicago St.WAC0.220.125.5611.54-0.19-0.09
Arkansas Little RockSB0.150.1233.3335.67-0.05-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.210.1261.1158.480.050.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.140.1240.0037.55-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.1261.1159.790.020.02
DavidsonA100.080.1276.4776.760.040.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.140.1221.0533.24-0.08-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.070.1231.5844.73-0.02-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.140.1245.0057.04-0.010.02
RichmondA100.140.1252.6355.770.010.01
DuquesneA100.140.1229.4127.47-0.06-0.05
WisconsinB100.140.1190.0087.170.110.09
Penn St.B100.070.1165.0051.890.020.00
MaineAE0.080.1010.0012.92-0.07-0.07
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.1035.2934.97-0.02-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.160.0916.6722.20-0.11-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0921.4339.66-0.04-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.150.0921.0521.30-0.09-0.05
MichiganB100.160.0960.0052.320.030.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.240.0957.8956.170.040.01
James MadisonCAA0.080.0957.1458.280.010.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.150.0938.8940.48-0.03-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.150.0970.5967.540.060.03
HamptonMEAC0.240.0940.0038.75-0.05-0.02
DelawareCAA0.150.0921.0522.40-0.09-0.05
HofstraCAA0.230.0966.6770.420.080.04
Murray St.OVC0.220.0978.9580.820.130.06
NortheasternCAA0.080.0966.6767.010.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.220.0945.0043.86-0.02-0.01
TroySB0.150.0931.2531.51-0.06-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.150.0965.0068.180.050.03
XavierBE0.210.0966.6765.790.070.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.150.0950.0053.450.000.01
DetroitHorz0.150.0940.0042.42-0.03-0.01
ButlerBE0.070.0971.4370.480.030.04
LibertyBSth0.080.0911.7617.57-0.06-0.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0957.8956.150.010.01
MinnesotaB100.150.0960.0056.680.030.01
UTEPCUSA0.150.0963.1668.460.040.03
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0957.8959.570.010.02
Arkansas St.SB0.220.0944.4443.24-0.02-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.140.0942.1139.38-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.140.0989.4787.830.110.07
BinghamtonAE0.150.095.0012.05-0.14-0.07
CanisiusMAAC0.150.0957.8962.600.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.150.0915.7923.08-0.10-0.05
Virginia TechACC0.080.0945.0037.52-0.01-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.150.0970.5968.940.060.03
CreightonBE0.140.0942.8638.54-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.140.0915.7918.56-0.10-0.05
Ohio St.B100.000.0976.1976.820.000.05
George MasonA100.140.0929.4131.64-0.06-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.140.0950.0054.860.000.01
Seton HallBE0.130.0968.4260.970.050.02
UMBCAE0.070.0915.0020.01-0.05-0.05
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0823.5327.88-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.080.0652.6360.400.000.01
StetsonASun0.080.0611.7619.38-0.06-0.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.150.0647.0654.41-0.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.080.0661.1162.860.020.02
FurmanSC0.150.0623.5328.53-0.08-0.03
Green BayHorz0.150.0678.9577.890.080.03
PittsburghACC0.150.0660.0051.930.030.00
San FranciscoWCC0.150.0640.0041.95-0.03-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0628.5733.14-0.03-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0652.9459.040.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0635.0031.73-0.00-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0635.0043.93-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.080.0631.5832.19-0.03-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.065.2610.56-0.07-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0642.1145.63-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.080.0640.0037.66-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.080.0658.8262.360.010.02
DartmouthIvy0.160.0650.0050.960.000.00
IUPUISum0.150.0638.1040.92-0.04-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.0658.8257.840.030.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0671.4369.540.000.02
Georgia St.SB0.080.0663.1666.580.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0647.0654.50-0.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0650.0051.420.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0690.0084.550.060.04
San DiegoWCC0.000.0645.0046.00-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.150.0622.2226.62-0.09-0.03
Texas St.SB0.080.0643.7545.82-0.01-0.00
VMISC0.140.0631.5837.63-0.05-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.150.0680.0079.100.090.03
CharlotteCUSA0.140.0642.1151.49-0.020.00
FordhamA100.070.0625.0024.53-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.070.0655.0053.300.010.00
Saint LouisA100.070.0644.4437.39-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0650.0049.290.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.070.0647.0648.19-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.070.0670.0065.430.030.02
IllinoisB100.070.0661.9060.520.020.01
IPFWSum0.000.0635.2937.92-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.070.0684.2176.020.050.03
KentuckySEC0.070.06100.0098.460.070.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.140.0625.0025.36-0.07-0.03
MarquetteBE0.070.0652.6346.610.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0616.6723.20-0.00-0.03
MarylandB100.000.0685.7177.510.000.03
Miami FLACC0.000.0673.6870.420.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0615.0023.72-0.05-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0652.9453.050.000.00
St. John'sBE0.070.0666.6760.540.020.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.070.0627.7828.15-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0631.5838.39-0.00-0.01
USCP120.000.0647.3740.06-0.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.070.0690.0084.460.050.04
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0631.2527.84-0.00-0.03
YaleIvy0.070.0664.7164.140.020.02
ColoradoP120.130.0652.6351.020.010.00
RutgersB100.140.0647.6238.01-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.140.0663.1657.240.040.01
StanfordP120.130.0673.6869.440.060.02
FIUCUSA0.080.0343.7540.86-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.080.0371.4374.820.030.02
MaristMAAC0.080.0310.0013.98-0.06-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0327.7828.20-0.03-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0321.0530.49-0.05-0.01
CaliforniaP120.080.0355.0045.710.01-0.00
CampbellBSth0.080.0326.3233.54-0.04-0.01
DenverSum0.070.0345.0047.71-0.01-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0335.2931.67-0.02-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0330.0029.57-0.03-0.01
IdahoBSky0.080.0337.5043.67-0.02-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.080.0384.2177.810.050.02
Notre DameACC0.080.0390.4884.130.070.02
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0378.9579.440.040.02
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0375.0075.760.040.02
TexasB120.080.0370.0067.480.030.01
UC RiversideBW0.080.0338.8936.52-0.02-0.01
UtahP120.080.0383.3383.650.050.02
AlabamaSEC0.080.0363.1658.880.020.01
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0342.1138.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.080.0347.3742.86-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0342.1151.96-0.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0354.5556.860.010.00
New HampshireAE0.000.0350.0052.990.000.00
PacificWCC0.000.0338.8934.79-0.00-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.030.002.01-0.00-0.03
SienaMAAC0.080.0342.1138.12-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.030.003.48-0.07-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0373.6872.820.030.01
Florida St.ACC0.070.0350.0044.140.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0358.3365.130.010.01
IndianaB100.070.0375.0068.280.030.01
LehighPat0.070.0350.0052.030.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0326.3229.09-0.03-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0338.8940.83-0.02-0.01
Oregon St.P120.070.0372.2262.220.030.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0375.0065.100.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0360.0056.870.000.00
BucknellPat0.070.0350.0050.930.000.00
DukeACC0.070.0389.4783.700.050.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0342.1147.22-0.01-0.00
OregonP120.070.0368.4259.940.030.01
VirginiaACC0.070.03100.0093.910.070.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0335.2932.47-0.02-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.070.0335.2936.81-0.02-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0326.3236.44-0.03-0.01
High PointBSth0.070.0372.2269.040.030.01
HoustonAmer0.070.0336.8435.44-0.02-0.01
Texas TechB120.070.0355.0041.240.01-0.00