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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Ohio

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:117.0
Current RPI:117
Expected SOS:180
Current SOS:180
Current Record:19-11
Expected Record:19-11
Current Conf Record:12-8
Expected Conf Record:12-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-2
Current OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC RPI:126
Expected OOC SOS:282



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-11117.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Ohio.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Southern (320.0)SWACH77-67W100%0.0
11-14Sam Houston St. (194.0)SlndH96-75W100%0.0
11-18Georgia Tech (105.0)ACCA61-67W100%0.0
11-25Tennessee Tech (277.0)OVCH68-57W100%0.0
11-30Marshall (112.0)CUSAA98-88L0%0.0
12-3Bryant (285.0)NECH79-53W100%0.0
12-10Iona (89.0)MAACA79-75L0%0.0
12-14Milwaukee (256.0)HorzH71-69W100%0.0
12-17Cleveland St. (260.0)HorzH71-53W100%0.0
12-21Western Kentucky (226.0)CUSAA67-66L0%0.0
1-3Western Michigan (173.0)MACH89-58W100%0.0
1-6Kent St. (142.0)MACH85-67W100%0.0
1-10Buffalo (146.0)MACA72-74W100%0.0
1-14Eastern Michigan (174.0)MACH49-53L0%0.0
1-17Akron (58.0)MACA83-68L0%0.0
1-21Northern Illinois (241.0)MACA69-78W100%0.0
1-24Toledo (155.0)MACH76-79L0%0.0
1-28Bowling Green (225.0)MACA72-96W100%0.0
1-31Western Michigan (173.0)MACA90-85L0%0.0
2-4Akron (58.0)MACH85-70W100%0.0
2-7Central Michigan (216.0)MACH87-97L0%0.0
2-10Ball St. (169.0)MACA77-79W100%0.0
2-14Eastern Michigan (174.0)MACA71-79W100%0.0
2-18Bowling Green (225.0)MACH95-75W100%0.0
2-21Miami OH (302.0)MACA62-79W100%0.0
2-25Kent St. (142.0)MACA70-67L0%0.0
2-28Buffalo (146.0)MACH79-83L0%0.0
3-3Miami OH (302.0)MACH69-55W100%0.0
3-9Toledo (155.0)MACN67-66W100%0.0
3-10Kent St. (142.0)MACN66-68L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Ohio's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Ohio's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Ohio.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
OhioMAC26.3226.3263.0463.046.876.87
Kent St.MAC5.925.9261.2961.291.341.34
AkronMAC4.354.3577.4277.422.382.38
ToledoMAC4.224.2250.0050.000.000.00
Miami OHMAC4.184.1832.1432.14-1.49-1.49
Bowling GreenMAC4.184.1841.3841.38-0.72-0.72
BuffaloMAC4.174.1750.0050.000.000.00
Western MichiganMAC4.174.1748.2848.28-0.14-0.14
Eastern MichiganMAC4.134.1340.7440.74-0.76-0.76
Ball St.MAC2.612.6164.5264.520.760.76
Central MichiganMAC2.602.6044.8344.83-0.27-0.27
Northern IllinoisMAC2.582.5842.8642.86-0.37-0.37
Cleveland St.Horz1.841.8427.5927.59-0.83-0.83
Tennessee TechOVC1.831.8334.4834.48-0.57-0.57
MarshallCUSA1.821.8254.5554.550.170.17
Georgia TechACC1.751.7553.3353.330.120.12
Sam Houston St.Slnd1.751.7558.6258.620.300.30
SouthernSWAC1.751.7544.8344.83-0.18-0.18
MilwaukeeHorz1.721.7230.3030.30-0.68-0.68
Western KentuckyCUSA1.721.7245.1645.16-0.17-0.17
BryantNEC1.671.6736.6736.67-0.44-0.44
IonaMAAC1.671.6763.6463.640.450.45
DetroitHorz0.320.3223.3323.33-0.17-0.17
Wright St.Horz0.290.2960.0060.000.060.06
Green BayHorz0.270.2755.1755.170.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.230.2334.3834.38-0.07-0.07
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.230.2387.8887.880.170.17
Alabama A&MSWAC0.220.226.906.90-0.19-0.19
OaklandHorz0.210.2173.3373.330.100.10
PittsburghACC0.190.1948.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.180.1843.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.180.1868.7568.750.070.07
NiagaraMAAC0.180.1830.3030.30-0.07-0.07
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.160.1641.9441.94-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.160.1674.1974.190.080.08
IUPUISum0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.130.1377.7877.780.070.07
CanisiusMAAC0.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.130.1321.8821.88-0.07-0.07
UABCUSA0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
South DakotaSum0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
Old DominionCUSA0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
SyracuseACC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Murray St.OVC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
EvansvilleMVC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.110.1184.3884.380.070.07
NevadaMWC0.100.1082.3582.350.070.07
UTEPCUSA0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
St. BonaventureA100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
MissouriSEC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Notre DameACC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
WashingtonP120.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
North TexasCUSA0.080.0821.4321.43-0.04-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.080.0896.9796.970.070.07
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
UTSACUSA0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
UC IrvineBW0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
George MasonA100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.070.0712.9012.90-0.05-0.05
TexasB120.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
SienaMAAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
SMUAmer0.060.0688.2488.240.040.04
VermontAE0.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
IdahoBSky0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0636.0036.00-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
Fort WayneSum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0632.0032.00-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
LipscombASun0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
MaineAE0.060.0619.3519.35-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0619.2319.23-0.03-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
UCFAmer0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
XavierBE0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
UCLAP120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
UMKCWAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
WagnerNEC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.053.333.33-0.05-0.05
Montana St.BSky0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
RiceCUSA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
IllinoisB100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0377.1477.140.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0361.5461.540.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
NavyPat0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
YaleIvy0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
DePaulBE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
MontanaBSky0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
TowsonCAA0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0218.5218.52-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01