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Through games of Feb 7, 2016.


Ohio

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:108.9
Current RPI:99
Expected SOS:115
Current SOS:101
Current Record:13-8
Expected Record:17-12
Current Conf Record:5-5
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:86
Expected OOC SOS:175



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-858.90.28%
20-968.93.32%
19-1080.812.99%
18-1194.925.51%
17-12111.429.48%
16-13130.019.33%
15-14148.77.68%
14-15166.11.33%
13-16179.70.07%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Ohio.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Florida Gulf Coast (215.1)ASunH85-75W100%0.0
11-16Tennessee St. (164.4)OVCH75-67W100%0.0
11-20Tulsa (67.0)AmerN90-88L0%0.0
11-21Norfolk St. (212.3)MEACN71-93W100%0.0
11-23Florida St. (46.8)ACCN90-81L0%0.0
12-1Marshall (127.9)CUSAH85-70W100%0.0
12-5St. Bonaventure (51.0)A10A81-68L0%0.0
12-12Cleveland St. (275.2)HorzA67-76W100%0.0
12-17Jackson St. (226.0)SWACH72-67W100%0.0
12-21Arkansas Pine Bluff (319.6)SWACH65-58W100%0.0
12-30UC Riverside (263.6)BWH81-59W100%0.0
1-6Northern Illinois (136.7)MACA80-69L0%0.0
1-9Ball St. (155.9)MACH79-73W100%0.0
1-12Bowling Green (192.9)MACH75-91L0%0.0
1-16Kent St. (113.5)MACA89-82L0%0.0
1-19Western Michigan (203.7)MACH82-64W100%0.0
1-23Central Michigan (132.1)MACA72-49L0%0.0
1-26Toledo (147.0)MACA79-81W100%0.0
1-29Kent St. (113.5)MACH72-61W100%0.0
2-2Akron (35.0)MACH68-80L0%0.0
2-6Northern Illinois (136.7)MACH80-69W100%0.0
2-9Ball St. (155.9)MACA0-044%-1.7
2-13Buffalo (86.0)MACA0-036%-3.9
2-16Eastern Michigan (150.0)MACH0-063%3.6
2-20Miami OH (232.7)MACH0-082%10.2
2-23Bowling Green (192.9)MACA0-054%1.1
2-27Buffalo (86.0)MACH0-060%2.8
3-1Akron (35.0)MACA0-021%-8.7
3-4Miami OH (232.7)MACA0-063%3.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Ohio's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Ohio's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Ohio.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
OhioMAC26.3926.2757.6557.964.044.18
AkronMAC2.894.3180.9579.371.792.53
Bowling GreenMAC2.884.2750.0045.120.00-0.42
Miami OHMAC0.634.2731.8230.69-0.23-1.65
Kent St.MAC5.094.2565.0060.121.530.86
BuffaloMAC0.574.2459.0959.370.100.80
Ball St.MAC2.774.1766.6761.460.920.95
Northern IllinoisMAC5.044.1564.7159.501.480.79
ToledoMAC3.012.5961.9062.140.720.63
Western MichiganMAC2.892.5635.0036.75-0.87-0.68
Central MichiganMAC2.842.5547.3749.36-0.15-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.512.5536.8441.62-0.14-0.43
Cleveland St.Horz2.651.9322.7323.55-1.45-1.02
Jackson St.SWAC2.431.8450.0054.550.000.17
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC2.441.7821.7424.40-1.38-0.91
Florida Gulf CoastASun2.441.7850.0054.150.000.15
MarshallCUSA2.441.7852.1752.880.110.10
St. BonaventureA102.381.7870.0067.860.950.64
Florida St.ACC2.381.7268.1863.680.870.47
Norfolk St.MEAC2.381.7242.8651.03-0.340.04
Tennessee St.OVC2.381.7270.0065.030.950.52
TulsaAmer2.381.7263.6460.120.650.35
UC RiversideBW2.381.7247.8343.08-0.10-0.24
Wright St.Horz0.230.2456.5257.000.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.330.2430.4332.35-0.13-0.08
South Carolina St.MEAC0.220.2350.0053.300.000.02
LipscombASun0.170.2125.0029.27-0.08-0.09
DetroitHorz0.210.1847.6245.85-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.210.1770.8370.840.090.07
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.220.1729.1733.15-0.09-0.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.210.1738.8945.66-0.05-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.1568.1866.670.040.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.160.1552.0050.250.010.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.1515.0022.36-0.08-0.08
Green BayHorz0.160.1554.5556.000.010.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.220.1536.8438.39-0.06-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.160.1515.7920.03-0.11-0.09
CanisiusMAAC0.160.1444.0045.31-0.02-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.170.1445.4554.11-0.020.01
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1456.5262.780.010.04
StetsonASun0.170.1323.8127.69-0.09-0.06
FIUCUSA0.230.1240.9145.30-0.04-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.220.1250.0049.860.00-0.00
NJITASun0.160.1254.1755.250.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.230.125.007.23-0.21-0.11
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.220.1228.5728.54-0.10-0.05
Chicago St.WAC0.180.124.357.73-0.16-0.10
OaklandHorz0.160.1268.0067.970.060.04
VermontAE0.060.1254.1757.520.000.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.160.1233.3335.09-0.05-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.160.1240.9143.53-0.03-0.02
DaytonA100.060.1286.3682.380.040.08
New OrleansSlnd0.110.1227.7834.50-0.05-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.1282.6178.890.040.07
ValparaisoHorz0.110.1281.8283.040.070.08
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.160.1271.4369.420.070.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.160.1231.8236.14-0.06-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.160.1252.1751.960.010.00
VCUA100.110.1273.9173.900.050.06
IUPUISum0.050.1140.0039.79-0.01-0.02
SMUAmer0.160.1190.9186.130.130.08
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.1142.8650.41-0.010.00
UCFAmer0.050.1152.3845.700.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1122.7327.19-0.06-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.110.1130.0035.77-0.04-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.1116.6720.13-0.07-0.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.119.0917.09-0.09-0.07
SouthernSWAC0.110.1165.0066.790.030.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.1021.7423.40-0.06-0.05
North FloridaASun0.110.1065.2267.140.030.03
South DakotaSum0.180.1041.6741.24-0.03-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.120.0925.0024.36-0.06-0.05
BelmontOVC0.110.0966.6766.540.040.03
MassachusettsA100.110.0940.9139.36-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.110.0947.3749.97-0.01-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.110.0950.0052.350.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.0913.6415.80-0.08-0.06
MissouriSEC0.170.0934.7830.36-0.05-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.110.0971.4368.710.050.03
HowardMEAC0.110.0938.1040.73-0.03-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.110.0959.0959.640.020.02
Penn St.B100.110.0950.0046.740.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.160.0934.7834.45-0.05-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0920.0026.74-0.03-0.04
BinghamtonAE0.060.0921.7424.67-0.03-0.04
IPFWSum0.060.0970.8368.570.020.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.160.0943.4842.62-0.02-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.060.0945.8346.66-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.060.0966.6762.560.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.100.0972.7371.620.050.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.0945.4546.30-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.110.0923.8126.56-0.06-0.04
DukeACC0.000.0973.9170.040.000.03
IonaMAAC0.110.0960.8760.730.020.02
PittsburghACC0.160.0976.1968.220.080.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.160.0915.0027.26-0.11-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.160.0970.8369.500.060.03
HawaiiBW0.100.0884.2181.670.070.05
Iowa St.B120.050.0873.9170.060.020.03
USC UpstateASun0.060.0722.7323.25-0.03-0.04
IdahoBSky0.130.0654.5554.930.010.01
Ohio St.B100.130.0658.3354.160.020.01
La SalleA100.060.0620.0020.45-0.03-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.0677.2776.860.060.03
FloridaSEC0.110.0665.2266.090.030.02
Loyola MDPat0.110.0634.7837.15-0.03-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0682.6177.740.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.110.0647.8346.88-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.060.0621.7423.66-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.060.0663.6456.430.020.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0657.1459.470.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.110.0656.5256.610.010.01
Saint LouisA100.060.0636.3633.47-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.0635.0035.98-0.03-0.02
UMBCAE0.060.0624.0026.41-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0683.3383.020.030.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.0682.6181.140.070.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.069.5213.52-0.04-0.04
HofstraCAA0.110.0665.2264.220.030.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.110.0610.0013.13-0.08-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.110.0686.3679.150.080.03
MarylandB100.100.0687.5083.690.080.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.0625.0033.21-0.05-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0631.5831.98-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.100.0652.1751.940.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0652.1755.930.000.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0612.5012.85-0.04-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.050.0630.0034.56-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.100.0635.0032.27-0.03-0.02
ClemsonACC0.100.0660.8760.240.020.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0673.9172.480.020.03
DelawareCAA0.000.0621.7423.32-0.00-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.100.0643.4842.01-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.100.0669.5766.510.040.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0645.4551.35-0.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.050.0622.7324.97-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.110.0642.8646.34-0.02-0.00
MaristMAAC0.110.0622.7324.73-0.06-0.03
Miami FLACC0.050.0681.8276.740.030.03
Montana St.BSky0.000.0640.9143.71-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.0650.0049.090.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0656.5257.280.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.0672.0070.510.050.02
St. Francis PANEC0.110.0650.0049.440.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.050.0663.6459.840.010.01
TulaneAmer0.100.0633.3332.34-0.03-0.02
UC DavisBW0.100.0640.0036.77-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0686.9686.370.040.04
XavierBE0.000.0691.3084.380.000.04
RiceCUSA0.100.0628.5729.72-0.04-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.100.0647.8344.37-0.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.0630.4331.18-0.04-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0654.1749.270.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0634.7840.92-0.02-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0682.6179.420.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0378.2678.050.030.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0337.5040.52-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0354.1750.930.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.060.0345.4549.70-0.01-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0356.5256.310.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0317.3920.66-0.04-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0347.8350.15-0.000.00
BYUWCC0.060.0366.6769.500.020.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0317.6529.24-0.04-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.060.0365.0069.270.020.01
William & MaryCAA0.060.0371.4369.840.030.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0359.0953.030.010.00
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0342.8639.19-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.060.0372.7366.500.030.01
DavidsonA100.060.0360.0057.960.010.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0375.0076.240.030.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0321.0523.58-0.03-0.02
FordhamA100.000.0355.0052.290.000.00
George MasonA100.060.0334.7834.15-0.02-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0378.2674.420.000.01
LibertyBSth0.060.0334.7836.50-0.02-0.01
MarquetteBE0.060.0362.5056.260.010.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0330.4335.11-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.060.0372.7370.750.030.01
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0324.0024.57-0.03-0.02
OregonP120.060.0382.6179.210.040.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0372.2274.710.020.01
RichmondA100.060.0354.5554.490.010.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0340.0042.11-0.01-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.060.0331.8229.14-0.02-0.01
SienaMAAC0.060.0364.0064.120.020.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0370.5975.550.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0376.1973.400.030.01
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0356.5260.000.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0331.5831.80-0.02-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0390.4886.880.040.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0330.4326.50-0.02-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0366.6767.690.020.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0321.0527.82-0.03-0.01
DenverSum0.050.0354.1751.800.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0352.1751.590.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0352.6350.220.000.00
IowaB100.050.0382.6180.580.030.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0331.5831.96-0.02-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0339.1338.57-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0360.8760.770.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0340.9140.65-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0339.1337.74-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0314.2917.92-0.04-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0382.6178.690.030.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0328.5726.96-0.02-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0369.5765.850.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0339.1341.12-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0361.9056.420.010.00
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0354.5550.110.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0325.0022.76-0.03-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0320.0019.66-0.00-0.02
UNLVMWC0.050.0350.0055.200.000.00
VirginiaACC0.050.0382.6178.050.030.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0343.4840.61-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0372.7376.360.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0333.3332.99-0.02-0.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0313.6413.62-0.04-0.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0382.6179.550.030.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0343.4842.50-0.01-0.00
ArmyPat0.050.0352.1753.380.000.00
NebraskaB100.050.0354.1751.810.000.00
SeattleWAC0.050.0347.6244.99-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.050.0359.0953.120.010.00