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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Duquesne

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:255.0
Current RPI:304
Expected SOS:119
Current SOS:285
Current Record:2-5
Expected Record:9-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-4
Current OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:306
Expected OOC SOS:317



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-12103.00.01%
15-13141.20.12%
14-14159.60.43%
13-15174.61.77%
12-16194.84.56%
11-17215.19.89%
10-18234.816.08%
9-19253.021.32%
8-20269.820.48%
7-21285.014.84%
6-22297.27.24%
5-23307.62.64%
4-24316.50.50%
3-25321.90.11%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Duquesne.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-22Abilene Christian (336.9)SlndA81-102W100%0.0
11-29NJIT (233.3)indH81-84L0%0.0
12-2Howard (275.2)MEACH81-63W100%0.0
12-5Pittsburgh (115.7)ACCN76-62L0%0.0
12-10Penn St. (101.0)B10A64-62L0%0.0
12-13Robert Morris (272.3)NECA75-59L0%0.0
12-17St. Francis PA (141.5)NECH52-67L0%0.0
12-20UMass Lowell (184.4)AEH0-056%1.9
12-28Maryland Eastern Shore (259.1)MEACH0-071%6.6
12-30Texas Pan American (264.5)WACH0-068%5.6
1-3Dayton (72.7)A10A0-08%-16.2
1-7Saint Joseph's (189.6)A10H0-058%2.5
1-10Rhode Island (65.0)A10H0-017%-11.2
1-14Saint Louis (269.4)A10A0-046%-1.1
1-17VCU (25.9)A10H0-017%-11.2
1-22St. Bonaventure (102.8)A10H0-032%-5.5
1-24George Washington (81.1)A10A0-07%-17.2
1-28Richmond (87.3)A10A0-010%-14.8
1-31George Mason (222.5)A10H0-062%3.6
2-7Davidson (32.7)A10A0-03%-21.8
2-11George Washington (81.1)A10H0-023%-8.5
2-14Massachusetts (87.1)A10A0-012%-14.0
2-18La Salle (124.4)A10A0-015%-12.0
2-21Dayton (72.7)A10H0-026%-7.5
2-25Saint Louis (269.4)A10H0-074%7.7
2-28St. Bonaventure (102.8)A10A0-011%-14.2
3-4Fordham (260.3)A10A0-041%-2.8
3-7Davidson (32.7)A10H0-013%-13.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Duquesne's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Duquesne's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Duquesne.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DuquesneA1027.8026.1728.5727.72-11.92-11.66
St. BonaventureA100.404.2675.0064.460.201.23
Saint LouisA100.004.2460.0033.460.00-1.40
DaytonA100.004.2477.7869.220.001.63
George WashingtonA100.324.2466.6764.980.111.27
DavidsonA100.004.2087.5075.880.002.18
FordhamA100.322.6028.5727.11-0.14-1.19
RichmondA100.362.5855.5656.010.040.31
VCUA100.002.5870.0071.040.001.08
George MasonA100.002.5425.0025.51-0.00-1.25
Rhode IslandA100.002.5162.5072.830.001.15
MassachusettsA100.002.4960.0054.540.000.23
Saint Joseph'sA100.002.4855.5640.460.00-0.47
La SalleA100.002.4850.0048.810.00-0.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.452.0441.6744.85-0.07-0.21
NJITind7.141.9430.0038.52-2.86-0.45
HowardMEAC7.141.9433.3345.53-2.38-0.17
UMass LowellAE0.651.9255.5654.750.070.18
St. Francis PANEC7.141.9142.8660.88-1.020.42
Penn St.B107.141.8890.0052.315.710.09
Robert MorrisNEC7.141.8522.2237.36-3.97-0.47
PittsburghACC7.141.8562.5050.751.790.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.001.8537.5041.56-0.00-0.31
Abilene ChristianSlnd7.141.7920.0020.44-4.29-1.06
UMBCAE0.360.2210.0020.91-0.29-0.13
VirginiaACC0.000.21100.0085.310.000.15
LIU BrooklynNEC0.320.1933.3344.71-0.11-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.320.1922.2240.44-0.18-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1866.6742.100.00-0.03
AlbanyAE0.770.1733.3348.89-0.26-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.1622.2230.85-0.00-0.06
DartmouthIvy0.000.1644.4447.53-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1640.0046.73-0.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1650.0058.360.000.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.1520.0029.81-0.00-0.06
CharlotteCUSA0.320.1560.0064.610.060.05
NiagaraMAAC0.400.1514.2930.74-0.28-0.06
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1528.5741.17-0.00-0.03
VermontAE0.000.1544.4457.85-0.000.02
BryantNEC0.000.1528.5747.24-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1537.5037.96-0.00-0.04
VillanovaBE0.000.15100.0082.080.000.10
RutgersB100.000.1560.0035.070.00-0.05
MaineAE0.320.1411.1121.08-0.25-0.08
HamptonMEAC0.000.1340.0050.32-0.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1325.0028.68-0.00-0.05
BinghamtonAE0.000.130.0011.87-0.00-0.10
CornellIvy0.320.1255.5648.240.04-0.00
WagnerNEC0.000.1214.2933.54-0.00-0.04
OhioMAC0.000.1242.8638.11-0.00-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.360.1270.0071.630.140.05
SienaMAAC0.000.1237.5051.81-0.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.400.1222.2237.50-0.22-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.1277.7851.350.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.360.120.0023.15-0.36-0.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.320.1218.1835.99-0.21-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1288.8981.310.000.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1036.3644.53-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.1014.2934.12-0.00-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1050.0074.000.000.05
South AlabamaSB0.000.100.0036.67-0.00-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0950.0044.900.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0014.79-0.00-0.07
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0950.0056.340.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0933.3342.19-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.360.0975.0069.120.180.03
DelawareCAA0.000.090.007.39-0.00-0.08
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0955.5661.390.000.02
MarylandB100.000.0990.9167.660.000.03
Ohio St.B100.000.0990.0084.680.000.06
BradleyMVC0.360.0933.3332.09-0.12-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0990.0078.050.000.05
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0975.0060.400.000.02
DrexelCAA0.000.0925.0037.13-0.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0950.0037.510.00-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.320.0955.5638.130.04-0.02
St. John'sBE0.320.0787.5065.040.240.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0710.0030.45-0.00-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.070.0011.40-0.00-0.05
HoustonAmer0.600.0771.4348.860.26-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0720.0039.70-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0775.0074.340.000.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0736.3664.92-0.000.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0737.5046.50-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0711.1144.04-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0722.2241.92-0.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0733.3340.31-0.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0742.8637.65-0.00-0.02
LafayettePat0.360.0775.0069.820.180.03
Holy CrossPat0.320.0657.1453.130.050.00
MichiganB100.320.0655.5642.550.04-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0640.0033.79-0.00-0.02
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0044.59-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0650.0051.050.000.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0625.0052.09-0.000.00
New HampshireAE0.000.0657.1464.620.000.02
StetsonASun0.000.0610.0027.42-0.00-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.000.0633.3354.74-0.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.0655.5634.940.00-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0650.0053.700.000.00
DePaulBE0.000.0660.0034.110.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.008.88-0.00-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0618.1844.62-0.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0620.0026.57-0.00-0.03
Seton HallBE0.000.0690.0067.260.000.02
VMISC0.000.0633.3339.22-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.450.0660.0065.400.090.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0620.0034.08-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.450.0677.7869.190.250.02
DetroitHorz0.000.0644.4448.88-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0012.36-0.00-0.05
IUPUISum0.360.0620.0026.33-0.21-0.03
Miami FLACC0.360.0690.0075.520.290.03
NavyPat0.450.0620.0021.58-0.27-0.03
NebraskaB100.000.0666.6743.780.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.360.0644.4470.08-0.040.02
PepperdineWCC0.360.0675.0058.430.180.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0672.7353.260.000.00
RadfordBSth0.360.0650.0055.810.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0618.1828.02-0.00-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.360.0657.1456.750.050.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0666.6772.340.000.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0031.74-0.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0677.7871.960.000.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0675.0067.580.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0650.0057.510.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0671.4363.410.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0618.1821.30-0.00-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0633.3332.85-0.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0630.0028.50-0.00-0.03
MississippiSEC0.000.0670.0052.610.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0650.0039.340.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.060.0023.71-0.00-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0662.5054.970.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0660.0049.500.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0677.7865.390.000.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0687.5085.320.000.04
ClemsonACC0.000.0666.6745.670.00-0.01
PennIvy0.000.0637.5033.00-0.00-0.02
TempleAmer0.000.0663.6455.600.000.01
ToledoMAC0.360.0660.0059.420.070.01
BucknellPat0.320.0640.0036.29-0.06-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0675.0071.730.000.03
IndianaB100.400.0680.0057.630.240.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0085.330.000.04
MinnesotaB100.000.0677.7864.730.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0681.8264.110.000.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0666.6757.860.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0690.9171.890.000.03
SyracuseACC0.000.0666.6757.800.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0650.0038.000.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0690.9188.390.000.04
MarquetteBE0.320.0455.5647.870.04-0.00
YaleIvy0.000.0472.7367.180.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0333.3362.92-0.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0375.0068.680.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0017.51-0.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.0372.7351.560.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0371.4361.370.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.600.0371.4359.920.260.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0325.0049.09-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0344.4455.75-0.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0038.46-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0018.94-0.00-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.0325.0032.77-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0037.73-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.600.0342.8642.32-0.09-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0366.6777.690.000.02
TulsaAmer0.600.0360.0056.800.120.00
UC RiversideBW0.600.0342.8643.10-0.09-0.00
UtahP120.000.0377.7879.480.000.02
KansasB120.000.0388.8969.390.000.01
LehighPat0.450.0337.5047.71-0.11-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0344.4456.51-0.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0350.0040.880.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0342.8627.08-0.00-0.01
TexasB120.450.0390.0081.860.360.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0370.0058.600.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0377.7867.290.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0327.2737.85-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0390.0066.940.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0360.0057.600.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.360.0344.4451.58-0.040.00
DenverSum0.000.0350.0054.230.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.360.0366.6759.460.120.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.0390.0090.940.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.360.0333.3345.28-0.12-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.0333.3327.70-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0310.0018.61-0.00-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0355.5649.500.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.360.0345.4544.07-0.03-0.00
AkronMAC0.320.0360.0056.560.060.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0360.0062.970.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.0366.6767.300.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0333.3349.71-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.000.0320.0043.08-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.000.03100.0087.140.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0371.4363.890.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0385.7172.940.000.01
HawaiiBW0.400.0366.6754.830.130.00
High PointBSth0.000.0362.5056.410.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0377.7878.540.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.0372.7365.930.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0366.6764.310.000.01
IowaB100.000.0372.7362.590.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0370.0060.790.000.01
Kansas St.B120.400.0360.0037.220.08-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0380.0064.110.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.320.0325.0038.92-0.16-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0372.7373.150.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0360.0040.620.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0330.0031.57-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.0366.6758.060.000.00
PurdueB100.000.0372.7363.730.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0344.4449.65-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0336.3647.13-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.400.0333.3331.58-0.13-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.400.0370.0072.830.160.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0046.150.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0362.5066.700.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0366.6751.430.000.00
USCP120.320.0360.0036.120.06-0.01