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Through games of Dec 5, 2016.


Duquesne

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:227.9
Current RPI:156
Expected SOS:140
Current SOS:78
Current Record:4-5
Expected Record:13-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-4
Current OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:252
Expected OOC SOS:267



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-10109.00.01%
20-11111.00.04%
19-12122.00.32%
18-13142.01.19%
17-14158.12.87%
16-15176.66.92%
15-16194.312.12%
14-17212.717.37%
13-18230.119.42%
12-19247.417.45%
11-20263.512.36%
10-21277.86.55%
9-22291.02.54%
8-23301.50.67%
7-24311.50.15%
6-25325.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Duquesne.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Loyola MD (197.2)PatH65-60W100%0.0
11-13Penn St. (121.1)B10A82-74L0%0.0
11-16St. Francis PA (278.8)NECH89-75W100%0.0
11-18Canisius (197.6)MAACH77-78L0%0.0
11-20Kentucky (9.3)SECA93-59L0%0.0
11-23Tennessee Martin (171.1)OVCH63-66L0%0.0
11-27Cleveland St. (249.5)HorzH78-71W100%0.0
11-30UMBC (209.1)AEH72-81L0%0.0
12-2Pittsburgh (71.0)ACCN55-64W100%0.0
12-6Robert Morris (243.1)NECN0-061%3.4
12-10Central Connecticut (314.0)NECH0-084%11.8
12-19Jackson St. (300.4)SWACH0-082%10.9
12-22Colgate (290.3)PatH0-076%8.4
12-30Fordham (220.5)A10A0-037%-4.1
1-4VCU (43.3)A10H0-021%-9.7
1-7La Salle (94.6)A10A0-020%-9.9
1-11Saint Louis (287.6)A10H0-078%9.3
1-14Dayton (38.2)A10H0-017%-11.5
1-18George Washington (189.3)A10A0-034%-4.8
1-21Rhode Island (36.6)A10H0-019%-10.5
1-24Davidson (68.6)A10A0-013%-13.4
1-28Richmond (176.4)A10A0-027%-7.3
2-1St. Bonaventure (59.5)A10H0-025%-8.0
2-4Dayton (38.2)A10A0-07%-17.7
2-11Saint Louis (287.6)A10A0-060%3.1
2-15Massachusetts (107.1)A10H0-039%-3.3
2-19George Washington (189.3)A10H0-055%1.4
2-22Fordham (220.5)A10H0-057%2.1
2-25St. Bonaventure (59.5)A10A0-012%-14.2
3-1George Mason (189.0)A10A0-036%-4.2
3-4Saint Joseph's (126.3)A10H0-044%-1.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Duquesne's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Duquesne's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Duquesne.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DuquesneA1028.5126.1134.1536.53-9.04-7.03
St. BonaventureA100.463.8771.4369.600.201.52
Saint LouisA100.003.8228.5723.30-0.00-2.04
DaytonA100.003.8171.4372.110.001.69
FordhamA100.003.7950.0040.630.00-0.71
George WashingtonA100.313.7955.5640.770.03-0.70
RichmondA100.002.3150.0047.400.00-0.12
George MasonA100.002.2862.5046.320.00-0.17
VCUA100.002.2675.0072.800.001.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.002.2642.8644.99-0.00-0.23
DavidsonA100.002.2571.4362.320.000.56
La SalleA100.002.2566.6754.610.000.21
Rhode IslandA100.002.2362.5068.840.000.84
MassachusettsA100.002.2371.4358.540.000.38
Central ConnecticutNEC0.001.7833.3333.47-0.00-0.59
St. Francis PANEC5.561.7740.0041.29-1.11-0.31
Robert MorrisNEC0.001.7522.2241.67-0.00-0.29
CanisiusMAAC6.651.7528.5742.38-2.85-0.27
Penn St.B105.561.7462.5044.701.39-0.18
ColgatePat0.311.7012.5029.61-0.23-0.69
KentuckySEC6.651.6985.7182.254.751.09
Cleveland St.Horz6.601.6933.3332.19-2.20-0.60
Tennessee MartinOVC6.651.6971.4353.382.850.11
Loyola MDPat5.561.6750.0047.700.00-0.08
UMBCAE5.561.6475.0052.752.780.09
PittsburghACC5.561.6485.7151.143.970.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.001.6114.2944.83-0.00-0.17
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.400.2511.1148.45-0.31-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.2216.6739.71-0.00-0.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.2237.5033.64-0.00-0.07
BinghamtonAE0.460.2050.0043.390.00-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.400.1971.4355.810.170.02
LehighPat0.000.1942.8666.59-0.000.06
BucknellPat0.000.1966.6766.310.000.06
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1912.5025.29-0.00-0.09
WagnerNEC0.000.1933.3354.84-0.000.02
BryantNEC0.000.1725.0047.73-0.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.1742.8650.22-0.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.1637.5047.02-0.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.1633.3349.96-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.1422.2238.53-0.00-0.03
NavyPat0.560.1425.0037.38-0.28-0.04
AmericanPat0.460.1414.2931.33-0.33-0.05
AlbanyAE0.310.1442.8661.12-0.040.03
LafayettePat0.000.1442.8635.20-0.00-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.350.140.0023.86-0.35-0.07
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1442.8655.39-0.000.01
PennIvy0.000.1433.3356.59-0.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.1357.1451.760.000.00
RutgersB100.000.1385.7145.270.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.1375.0064.560.000.04
BuffaloMAC0.000.1333.3352.15-0.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.1320.0046.85-0.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.1357.1451.010.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.400.1228.5738.23-0.17-0.03
HartfordAE0.000.1222.2226.36-0.00-0.05
TowsonCAA0.000.1142.8653.19-0.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.1133.3336.70-0.00-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1183.3380.140.000.07
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1185.7174.850.000.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1157.1450.090.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.1150.0042.070.00-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1150.0046.010.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.1150.0071.050.000.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.350.1142.8637.81-0.05-0.03
MississippiSEC0.350.1175.0048.640.17-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.1187.5081.950.000.07
FloridaSEC0.000.1187.5075.360.000.05
ManhattanMAAC0.350.1125.0034.33-0.17-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1125.0035.06-0.00-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1157.1450.560.000.00
St. John'sBE0.000.1144.4436.52-0.00-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1057.1452.030.000.00
MaineAE0.000.0914.2924.18-0.00-0.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0950.0066.260.000.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0814.2931.46-0.00-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.000.0812.5030.18-0.00-0.03
BelmontOVC0.000.0850.0064.320.000.02
MercerSC0.000.0842.8647.76-0.00-0.00
VMISC0.000.080.0016.68-0.00-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.560.080.0034.63-0.56-0.03
Notre DameACC0.400.08100.0077.540.400.04
NebraskaB100.000.0857.1444.820.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0875.0066.180.000.03
OaklandHorz0.000.0885.7176.970.000.04
Wright St.Horz0.310.0862.5052.110.080.00
FairfieldMAAC0.400.0871.4359.900.170.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0871.4366.220.000.03
PurdueB100.000.0875.0075.290.000.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0857.1449.200.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0862.5043.210.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0871.4367.900.000.03
DukeACC0.310.0888.8978.500.240.04
MaristMAAC0.000.0844.4434.68-0.00-0.02
MarylandB100.350.0887.5059.220.260.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0862.5062.160.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0887.5065.300.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.310.0857.1436.140.04-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0816.6744.42-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0862.5050.590.000.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0887.5058.670.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0887.5075.700.000.04
Miami FLACC0.000.0875.0066.550.000.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.080.0020.80-0.00-0.05
UCFAmer0.000.0885.7175.770.000.04
VirginiaACC0.000.0887.5078.760.000.04
New HampshireAE0.000.0657.1458.830.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0662.5071.360.000.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0013.57-0.00-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0612.5033.53-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0625.0031.92-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0025.42-0.00-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.0640.0058.95-0.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.43-0.00-0.02
The CitadelSC0.000.0650.0030.520.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.560.0625.0030.31-0.28-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0685.7163.030.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.460.0620.0021.78-0.28-0.03
NJITASun0.460.0650.0049.830.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.400.0675.0066.390.200.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.400.0612.5031.17-0.30-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0020.87-0.00-0.03
Green BayHorz0.000.0642.8651.59-0.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0642.8645.25-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0637.5037.68-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0650.0061.230.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0662.5058.520.000.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0657.1453.600.000.00
PortlandWCC0.000.0657.1450.740.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0089.440.000.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0642.8638.92-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.05100.0076.260.000.03
MarquetteBE0.350.0575.0066.420.170.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0571.4354.930.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0587.5068.530.000.02
BrownIvy0.000.0555.5647.040.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0550.0040.540.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0560.0067.730.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.400.0557.1454.410.060.00
VillanovaBE0.000.05100.0084.840.000.04
Arizona St.P120.350.0562.5040.600.09-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0571.4354.990.000.01
KansasB120.000.0587.5075.540.000.03
MissouriSEC0.000.0557.1442.470.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.350.0516.6738.62-0.23-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.350.0585.7169.610.250.02
YaleIvy0.350.0542.8663.37-0.050.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0571.4356.410.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0542.8642.65-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0585.7177.980.000.03
LipscombASun0.000.0512.5033.13-0.00-0.02
Little RockSB0.000.0566.6761.540.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0542.8633.72-0.00-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0583.3377.140.000.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0562.5067.400.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0557.1429.850.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.310.0587.5082.460.230.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.0514.2942.75-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0575.0051.170.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0525.0063.18-0.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0575.0056.780.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0575.0054.510.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0542.8647.13-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.000.0562.5067.030.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0520.0022.08-0.00-0.03
IndianaB100.000.0587.5074.500.000.03
IonaMAAC0.000.0557.1464.070.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0571.4349.210.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.350.0555.5658.500.040.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0587.5067.900.000.02
MonmouthMAAC0.350.0575.0070.290.170.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0528.5737.13-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0562.5056.380.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0557.1432.990.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.050.0025.06-0.00-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.000.0540.0041.15-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0550.0059.930.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0575.0086.690.000.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.560.0312.5037.47-0.42-0.01
CreightonBE0.400.03100.0076.680.400.02
DrakeMVC0.000.030.0019.63-0.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0375.0055.960.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0357.1471.550.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0342.8650.33-0.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0325.0020.75-0.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0328.5723.07-0.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0316.6729.76-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0371.4351.460.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0366.6761.650.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0350.0041.890.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0051.000.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.350.0316.6730.41-0.23-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0357.1471.900.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0355.5647.990.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0362.5060.410.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0350.0045.860.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.000.0383.3371.480.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0371.4354.780.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0325.0027.54-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0362.5052.000.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.350.0320.0022.80-0.21-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6736.11-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0342.8627.99-0.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0342.8639.28-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0328.5729.87-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0020.36-0.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0371.4358.580.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0333.3352.72-0.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0022.65-0.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0387.5061.690.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0337.5047.92-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0344.4441.39-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0333.3346.02-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0385.7166.250.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0385.7157.380.000.00
DePaulBE0.000.0366.6735.740.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.350.0350.0056.200.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.350.0333.3352.06-0.120.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0350.0060.750.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.310.0342.8658.06-0.040.00
IowaB100.000.0344.4438.90-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0333.3348.14-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0316.6729.78-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.0375.0066.440.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0387.5076.180.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0375.0048.000.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0314.2938.31-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0337.5050.86-0.000.00
PacificWCC0.000.0342.8646.37-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0375.0070.650.000.01
SMUAmer0.350.0366.6766.700.120.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0078.710.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.350.0325.0055.24-0.170.00
UCLAP120.350.03100.0086.530.350.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0357.1467.190.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.0377.7875.900.000.01