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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.

Duquesne

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:229.0
Current RPI:229
Expected SOS:90
Current SOS:90
Current Record:8-22
Expected Record:8-22
Current Conf Record:1-15
Expected Conf Record:1-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-3
Current OOC Record:7-7
Expected OOC Record:7-7
Expected OOC RPI:155
Expected OOC SOS:120


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-22229.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Duquesne.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Albany (130.0)AEA69-66L0%0.0
11-11Georgetown (11.0)BEA61-55L0%0.0
11-19James Madison (182.0)CAAH90-88W100%0.0
11-20North Dakota St. (72.0)SumH43-57L0%0.0
11-21Youngstown St. (188.0)HorzH84-74W100%0.0
11-28Appalachian St. (265.0)SCA72-73W100%0.0
12-1Maine (267.0)AEH87-73W100%0.0
12-5Pittsburgh (44.0)BEN66-45L0%0.0
12-8New Orleans (346.0)indH88-70W100%0.0
12-11West Virginia (146.0)B12H60-56W100%0.0
12-15Robert Morris (132.0)NECA91-69L0%0.0
12-19Western Michigan (128.0)MACH71-66W100%0.0
12-22Louisiana Lafayette (221.0)SBA91-79L0%0.0
12-29Penn St. (186.0)B10A84-74L0%0.0
1-9Fordham (228.0)A10A82-75L0%0.0
1-12Saint Joseph's (82.0)A10H66-74L0%0.0
1-17Massachusetts (57.0)A10A79-66L0%0.0
1-19Virginia Commonwealth (24.0)A10H63-90L0%0.0
1-23St. Louis (15.0)A10H64-73L0%0.0
1-26Dayton (114.0)A10A72-56L0%0.0
2-2St. Bonaventure (139.0)A10A68-60L0%0.0
2-6George Washington (147.0)A10H57-79L0%0.0
2-9Xavier (87.0)A10H65-73L0%0.0
2-14Temple (42.0)A10A83-84W100%0.0
2-16Rhode Island (201.0)A10H62-67L0%0.0
2-19Butler (22.0)A10A68-49L0%0.0
2-23St. Bonaventure (139.0)A10H71-78L0%0.0
3-2La Salle (46.0)A10A97-64L0%0.0
3-6Charlotte (68.0)A10H87-89L0%0.0
3-9Richmond (92.0)A10A79-55L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Duquesne's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Duquesne's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Duquesne.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DuquesneA1025.8725.8723.5323.53-13.70-13.70
St. BonaventureA103.703.7044.4444.44-0.41-0.41
ButlerA102.242.2475.0075.001.121.12
MassachusettsA102.182.1864.5264.520.630.63
Virginia CommonwealthA102.172.1775.7675.761.121.12
George WashingtonA102.172.1741.3841.38-0.37-0.37
XavierA102.172.1753.3353.330.140.14
St. LouisA102.172.1781.2581.251.361.36
La SalleA102.152.1568.9768.970.810.81
Saint Joseph'sA102.152.1556.6756.670.290.29
CharlotteA102.152.1564.5264.520.620.62
FordhamA102.152.1520.0020.00-1.29-1.29
RichmondA102.142.1454.8454.840.210.21
TempleA102.122.1274.1974.191.031.03
DaytonA102.122.1253.3353.330.140.14
Rhode IslandA102.092.0925.0025.00-1.05-1.05
James MadisonCAA1.781.7860.6160.610.380.38
AlbanyAE1.751.7569.7069.700.690.69
Robert MorrisNEC1.751.7568.7568.750.650.65
Youngstown St.Horz1.751.7550.0050.000.000.00
MaineAE1.741.7435.7135.71-0.50-0.50
PittsburghBE1.721.7274.1974.190.830.83
North Dakota St.Sum1.721.7270.0070.000.690.69
Penn St.B101.691.6930.0030.00-0.68-0.68
GeorgetownBE1.691.6980.0080.001.021.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.691.6935.4835.48-0.49-0.49
New Orleansind1.691.6919.0519.05-1.05-1.05
Appalachian St.SC1.671.6746.4346.43-0.12-0.12
West VirginiaB121.671.6741.9441.94-0.27-0.27
Western MichiganMAC1.671.6763.3363.330.440.44
SienaMAAC0.190.1925.0025.00-0.10-0.10
OhioMAC0.190.1972.7372.730.090.09
DavidsonSC0.160.1678.1278.120.090.09
VermontAE0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
PennsylvaniaIvy0.160.1629.0329.03-0.07-0.07
VillanovaBE0.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
MichiganB100.160.1678.1278.120.090.09
SyracuseBE0.160.1674.2974.290.080.08
OaklandSum0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
DelawareCAA0.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.140.1437.9337.93-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.140.1470.5970.590.060.06
Arkansas St.SB0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
Boston UniversityAE0.130.1358.6258.620.020.02
HartfordAE0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
New HampshireAE0.130.1328.5728.57-0.06-0.06
IndianaB100.130.1381.8281.820.080.08
CincinnatiBE0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
MarquetteBE0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
Stony BrookAE0.130.1376.6776.670.070.07
KansasB120.130.1385.2985.290.090.09
TowsonCAA0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
ElonSC0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
Kent St.MAC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
South FloridaBE0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Notre DameBE0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
RutgersBE0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.1113.7913.79-0.08-0.08
St. John'sBE0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
PurdueB100.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.110.116.906.90-0.09-0.09
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
St. Francis PANEC0.110.1117.2417.24-0.07-0.07
Sacred HeartNEC0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
George MasonCAA0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
QuinnipiacNEC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North TexasSB0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.WAC0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Old DominionCAA0.100.1016.6716.67-0.07-0.07
William & MaryCAA0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Wright St.Horz0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
CornellIvy0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
High PointBSth0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
BrownIvy0.080.0844.4444.44-0.01-0.01
NC GreensboroSC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
WoffordSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.080.0853.8553.850.010.01
AkronMAC0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0871.4371.430.030.03
Ohio St.B100.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
Kansas St.B120.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
Miami FLACC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
ConnecticutBE0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
HarvardIvy0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
MinnesotaB100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
NorthwesternB100.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticSB0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
Middle TennesseeSB0.080.0884.8584.850.050.05
OklahomaB120.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Texas TechB120.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.CAA0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MonmouthNEC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckySB0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Houston BaptistGWC0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.080.0848.0048.00-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
NC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
RiceCUSA0.060.0613.7913.79-0.05-0.05
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
FurmanSC0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
SamfordSC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
AuburnSEC0.060.0628.1228.12-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
CampbellBSth0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
IowaB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
PacificBW0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
WisconsinB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Loyola MDMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleBE0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Michigan St.B100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Texas St.WAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
BaylorB120.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Florida InternationalSB0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
LamarSlnd0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0514.8114.81-0.04-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
RadfordBSth0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Texas ChristianB120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
MemphisCUSA0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
UCLAP120.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0593.7593.750.040.04
DukeACC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
StetsonASun0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
WashingtonP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
WinthropBSth0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0431.2531.25-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonSC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Southern MethodistCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
St. Mary'sWCC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
BradleyMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
CreightonMVC0.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
DrakeMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.037.147.14-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0359.2659.260.000.00
Southern CaliforniaP120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyGWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
YaleIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
HoustonCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
NC AshevilleBSth0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Long IslandNEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0328.0028.00-0.01-0.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
BelmontOVC0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
ColgatePat0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01