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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Duquesne

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:162.0
Current RPI:162
Expected SOS:114
Current SOS:114
Current Record:15-16
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-1
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:120
Expected OOC SOS:282



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-16162.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Duquesne.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16New Orleans (343.0)SlndH95-75W100%0.0
11-20Penn St. (125.0)B10H78-52W100%0.0
11-23Pepperdine (129.0)WCCN70-84L0%0.0
11-24Milwaukee (173.0)HorzN96-92W100%0.0
11-25Western Kentucky (153.0)CUSAN73-81W100%0.0
12-1Mississippi Valley St. (330.0)SWACH91-77W100%0.0
12-4Pittsburgh (53.0)ACCN75-96L0%0.0
12-8UMBC (335.0)AEH89-70W100%0.0
12-12St. Francis PA (266.0)NECA65-67W100%0.0
12-16South Carolina St. (203.0)MEACH83-68W100%0.0
12-19Robert Morris (291.0)NECH72-65W100%0.0
12-29Georgia Tech (69.0)ACCA73-67L0%0.0
1-2Dayton (21.0)A10H58-66L0%0.0
1-6Davidson (64.0)A10A77-66L0%0.0
1-9George Washington (68.0)A10A91-64L0%0.0
1-13Saint Louis (206.0)A10H81-71W100%0.0
1-16St. Bonaventure (30.0)A10H95-88W100%0.0
1-20VCU (37.0)A10A93-71L0%0.0
1-22George Mason (201.0)A10A75-86W100%0.0
1-26La Salle (232.0)A10H87-60W100%0.0
1-30Saint Louis (206.0)A10A67-78W100%0.0
2-6Davidson (64.0)A10H82-93L0%0.0
2-9Dayton (21.0)A10A76-74L0%0.0
2-14Massachusetts (171.0)A10H99-108L0%0.0
2-17George Washington (68.0)A10H74-81L0%0.0
2-20Rhode Island (119.0)A10A77-74L0%0.0
2-24St. Bonaventure (30.0)A10A80-76L0%0.0
2-27Richmond (121.0)A10H67-83L0%0.0
3-2Fordham (176.0)A10H69-78L0%0.0
3-5Saint Joseph's (22.0)A10A70-78W100%0.0
3-9La Salle (232.0)A10N73-88L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Duquesne's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Duquesne's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Duquesne.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DuquesneA1026.1126.1145.4545.45-2.37-2.37
DavidsonA103.943.9458.6258.620.680.68
DaytonA103.893.8976.6776.672.082.08
Saint LouisA103.893.8936.6736.67-1.04-1.04
George WashingtonA103.893.8967.7467.741.381.38
St. BonaventureA103.893.8975.0075.001.941.94
La SalleA103.863.8625.0025.00-1.93-1.93
VCUA102.402.4069.7069.700.950.95
Saint Joseph'sA102.382.3881.8281.821.521.52
MassachusettsA102.342.3441.9441.94-0.38-0.38
RichmondA102.332.3348.3948.39-0.08-0.08
George MasonA102.322.3235.4835.48-0.67-0.67
Rhode IslandA102.282.2851.6151.610.070.07
FordhamA102.252.2553.5753.570.160.16
PittsburghACC1.711.7163.3363.330.460.46
Robert MorrisNEC1.691.6932.2632.26-0.60-0.60
Georgia TechACC1.691.6956.2556.250.210.21
South Carolina St.MEAC1.671.6756.6756.670.220.22
St. Francis PANEC1.661.6642.8642.86-0.24-0.24
Penn St.B101.661.6651.6151.610.050.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.641.6423.5323.53-0.87-0.87
New OrleansSlnd1.641.6426.9226.92-0.76-0.76
MilwaukeeHorz1.611.6160.0060.000.320.32
PepperdineWCC1.611.6155.1755.170.170.17
UMBCAE1.611.6122.5822.58-0.88-0.88
Western KentuckyCUSA1.611.6151.6151.610.050.05
LouisvilleACC0.180.1874.1974.190.090.09
Old DominionCUSA0.170.1762.8662.860.040.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.160.1651.6151.610.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.160.1667.7467.740.060.06
SyracuseACC0.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
VirginiaACC0.150.1578.7978.790.090.09
Central ConnecticutNEC0.130.1313.7913.79-0.10-0.10
BinghamtonAE0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.130.1342.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.130.1382.3582.350.080.08
Morehead St.OVC0.130.1358.6258.620.020.02
PennIvy0.130.1337.0437.04-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
North FloridaASun0.120.1263.3363.330.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.1235.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
HofstraCAA0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
BryantNEC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Sacred HeartNEC0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
TowsonCAA0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
VermontAE0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1021.8821.88-0.06-0.06
NorthwesternB100.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
DetroitHorz0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
ColgatePat0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
Green BayHorz0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
LongwoodBSth0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
BuffaloMAC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
IowaB100.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
Stony BrookAE0.100.1080.0080.000.060.06
Virginia TechACC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
NebraskaB100.100.1047.0647.06-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
Ball St.MAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0883.8783.870.050.05
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.080.0839.3939.39-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
MaineAE0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
MarylandB100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.04-0.04
TempleAmer0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
MercerSC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
OaklandHorz0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
Wright St.Horz0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
BYUWCC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
AmericanPat0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0821.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
XavierBE0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
WisconsinB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
DukeACC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
DePaulBE0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
RutgersB100.070.0719.3519.35-0.05-0.05
North TexasCUSA0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0746.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0620.8320.83-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0535.2935.29-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
PacificWCC0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
LehighPat0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
CornellIvy0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
FurmanSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
MichiganB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0511.1111.11-0.04-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0382.1482.140.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
UCLAP120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
BrownIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
IllinoisB100.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
NavyPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
WoffordSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
LibertyBSth0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0279.3179.310.010.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
SeattleWAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00