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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Duquesne

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:187.0
Current RPI:187
Expected SOS:132
Current SOS:132
Current Record:12-17
Expected Record:12-17
Current Conf Record:5-12
Expected Conf Record:5-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:237
Expected OOC SOS:333



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-17187.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Duquesne.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13New Hampshire (340.0)AEH81-84L0%0.0
11-17West Virginia (88.0)B12A96-83L0%0.0
11-20Albany (185.0)AEH70-59W100%0.0
11-30Pittsburgh (39.0)ACCN84-67L0%0.0
12-4UMBC (327.0)AEH94-88W100%0.0
12-11Penn St. (114.0)B10H59-68L0%0.0
12-14Robert Morris (129.0)NECH63-67L0%0.0
12-17St. Francis PA (298.0)NECA71-78W100%0.0
12-21UMass Lowell (283.0)AEA77-95W100%0.0
12-29Texas Pan American (312.0)WACA69-88W100%0.0
1-2Appalachian St. (335.0)SCH79-55W100%0.0
1-8Fordham (226.0)A10H87-81W100%0.0
1-12La Salle (98.0)A10H56-75L0%0.0
1-15Saint Joseph's (32.0)A10A84-75L0%0.0
1-18VCU (13.0)A10A80-65L0%0.0
1-22Saint Louis (27.0)A10H72-76L0%0.0
1-25St. Bonaventure (89.0)A10H83-81W100%0.0
1-29NJIT (308.0)indA64-71W100%0.0
2-1La Salle (98.0)A10A71-63L0%0.0
2-5George Washington (29.0)A10A71-57L0%0.0
2-8George Mason (164.0)A10H68-74L0%0.0
2-12Richmond (75.0)A10H58-75L0%0.0
2-15Rhode Island (155.0)A10A71-83W100%0.0
2-19St. Bonaventure (89.0)A10A71-67L0%0.0
2-22Dayton (43.0)A10H54-57L0%0.0
2-27Saint Louis (27.0)A10A64-71W100%0.0
3-5Massachusetts (23.0)A10H74-78L0%0.0
3-8George Mason (164.0)A10A69-81W100%0.0
3-13Richmond (75.0)A10N76-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Duquesne's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Duquesne's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Duquesne.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DuquesneA1026.0826.0841.2941.29-4.54-4.54
St. BonaventureA104.164.1653.3353.330.280.28
George MasonA104.054.0534.4834.48-1.26-1.26
La SalleA104.044.0444.8344.83-0.42-0.42
RichmondA104.014.0154.8454.840.390.39
Saint LouisA104.014.0182.7682.762.632.63
VCUA102.432.4375.7675.761.251.25
Rhode IslandA102.412.4143.3343.33-0.32-0.32
George WashingtonA102.402.4074.1974.191.161.16
DaytonA102.402.4068.7568.750.900.90
Saint Joseph'sA102.402.4071.8871.881.051.05
FordhamA102.402.4033.3333.33-0.80-0.80
MassachusettsA102.382.3874.1974.191.151.15
UMass LowellAE2.052.0534.6234.62-0.63-0.63
AlbanyAE2.032.0358.0658.060.330.33
New HampshireAE1.961.9614.2914.29-1.40-1.40
UMBCAE1.961.9628.5728.57-0.84-0.84
St. Francis PANEC1.941.9433.3333.33-0.65-0.65
NJITind1.901.9037.5037.50-0.47-0.47
Robert MorrisNEC1.811.8160.6160.610.380.38
Penn St.B101.811.8145.1645.16-0.17-0.17
PittsburghACC1.781.7872.7372.730.810.81
Appalachian St.SC1.721.7220.0020.00-1.03-1.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC1.721.7226.6726.67-0.80-0.80
West VirginiaB121.721.7251.6151.610.060.06
MaineAE0.360.3617.8617.86-0.23-0.23
Stony BrookAE0.340.3468.7568.750.130.13
VermontAE0.320.3266.6766.670.110.11
HartfordAE0.290.2951.5251.520.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.260.2623.3323.33-0.14-0.14
WagnerNEC0.240.2460.0060.000.050.05
Old DominionCUSA0.220.2248.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
PennIvy0.200.2028.5728.57-0.09-0.09
SienaMAAC0.190.1946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.160.1651.5251.520.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.150.1534.4834.48-0.05-0.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.140.1431.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Northern IowaMVC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.140.1416.1316.13-0.09-0.09
BryantNEC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
IonaMAAC0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
MinnesotaB100.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
DelawareCAA0.130.1373.5373.530.060.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
BrownIvy0.120.1251.8551.850.000.00
WoffordSC0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
HofstraCAA0.110.1130.3030.30-0.04-0.04
AmericanPat0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
YaleIvy0.110.1151.8551.850.000.00
LehighPat0.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.110.1167.6567.650.040.04
ManhattanMAAC0.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
Iowa St.B120.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
OklahomaB120.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
Miami FLACC0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.100.1071.8871.880.050.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1083.8783.870.070.07
SamfordSC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
ElonSC0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
NavyPat0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
WinthropBSth0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
LamarSlnd0.080.0810.7110.71-0.07-0.07
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
ColgatePat0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.080.0870.3770.370.030.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
CornellIvy0.080.083.703.70-0.08-0.08
TCUB120.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
BucknellPat0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
LSUSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Kansas St.B120.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
NebraskaB100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
PurdueB100.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
BaylorB120.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.080.0864.2964.290.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Texas TechB120.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
SyracuseACC0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
ClemsonACC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
MarylandACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
The CitadelSC0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
LafayettePat0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
MichiganB100.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
CampbellBSth0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
IdahoWAC0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Oral RobertsSlnd0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
SeattleWAC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
UMKCWAC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.060.06100.00100.000.060.06
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
DenverSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
IPFWSum0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
IllinoisB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
KansasB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.2121.21-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
South DakotaSum0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
MississippiSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
FloridaSEC0.050.0594.1294.120.050.05
James MadisonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
DavidsonSC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0386.2186.210.020.02
HoustonAmer0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
RutgersAmer0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0359.2659.260.000.00
USCP120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
DukeACC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00