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Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


Duquesne

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:113.8
Current RPI:109
Expected SOS:98
Current SOS:122
Current Record:14-9
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:5-6
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:110
Expected OOC SOS:262



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-958.00.10%
20-1067.70.99%
19-1180.37.15%
18-1294.421.10%
17-13111.032.53%
16-14128.826.25%
15-15145.310.24%
14-16161.31.63%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Duquesne.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16New Orleans (318.1)SlndH95-75W100%0.0
11-20Penn St. (131.5)B10H78-52W100%0.0
11-23Pepperdine (109.4)WCCN70-84L0%0.0
11-24Milwaukee (155.0)HorzN96-92W100%0.0
11-25Western Kentucky (179.7)CUSAN73-81W100%0.0
12-1Mississippi Valley St. (324.2)SWACH91-77W100%0.0
12-4Pittsburgh (45.1)ACCN75-96L0%0.0
12-8UMBC (321.1)AEH89-70W100%0.0
12-12St. Francis PA (226.5)NECA65-67W100%0.0
12-16South Carolina St. (209.0)MEACH83-68W100%0.0
12-19Robert Morris (306.3)NECH72-65W100%0.0
12-29Georgia Tech (87.1)ACCA73-67L0%0.0
1-2Dayton (13.7)A10H58-66L0%0.0
1-6Davidson (71.1)A10A77-66L0%0.0
1-9George Washington (56.0)A10A91-64L0%0.0
1-13Saint Louis (209.6)A10H81-71W100%0.0
1-16St. Bonaventure (45.3)A10H95-88W100%0.0
1-20VCU (45.6)A10A93-71L0%0.0
1-22George Mason (191.9)A10A75-86W100%0.0
1-26La Salle (259.3)A10H87-60W100%0.0
1-30Saint Louis (209.6)A10A67-78W100%0.0
2-6Davidson (71.1)A10H82-93L0%0.0
2-9Dayton (13.7)A10A76-74L0%0.0
2-14Massachusetts (181.5)A10H0-072%6.2
2-17George Washington (56.0)A10H0-041%-2.4
2-20Rhode Island (96.7)A10A0-021%-8.8
2-24St. Bonaventure (45.3)A10A0-025%-7.5
2-27Richmond (104.3)A10H0-046%-1.0
3-2Fordham (193.9)A10H0-069%5.3
3-5Saint Joseph's (26.8)A10A0-015%-11.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Duquesne's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Duquesne's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Duquesne.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DuquesneA1026.3826.1359.7954.255.172.22
St. BonaventureA102.603.9876.1972.831.361.82
George WashingtonA102.603.9573.9171.461.241.70
DaytonA104.793.9585.7180.893.422.44
Saint LouisA104.733.9538.1034.71-1.13-1.21
DavidsonA104.823.9457.8954.950.760.39
VCUA102.612.3969.5770.091.020.96
George MasonA102.612.3734.7834.75-0.79-0.72
MassachusettsA100.542.3543.4842.88-0.07-0.33
RichmondA100.442.3456.5255.890.060.28
Saint Joseph'sA100.242.3283.3381.150.161.44
Rhode IslandA100.342.3158.3356.520.060.30
La SalleA102.512.3120.0021.05-1.51-1.34
FordhamA100.332.2852.3851.410.020.06
PittsburghACC2.321.7871.4366.451.000.59
Robert MorrisNEC2.311.7528.0029.56-1.02-0.72
Georgia TechACC2.271.7552.1750.400.100.01
South Carolina St.MEAC2.221.7254.5556.140.200.21
Penn St.B102.221.7252.1748.330.10-0.06
St. Francis PANEC2.261.7254.5553.750.210.13
New OrleansSlnd2.171.6927.7833.70-0.97-0.55
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.221.6920.8322.97-1.29-0.92
MilwaukeeHorz2.171.6763.6464.700.590.49
PepperdineWCC2.171.6756.5259.450.280.32
UMBCAE2.171.6724.0026.73-1.13-0.78
Western KentuckyCUSA2.171.6747.6247.73-0.10-0.08
LouisvilleACC0.240.2079.1775.990.140.10
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.190.1729.1733.75-0.08-0.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.090.1750.0051.280.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.180.1740.0043.49-0.04-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.090.1758.3363.180.020.04
Morehead St.OVC0.250.1452.1753.440.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.180.1412.5013.27-0.13-0.11
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.140.1452.1753.720.010.01
SyracuseACC0.140.1468.0064.090.050.04
UCFAmer0.150.1450.0044.650.00-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.140.1424.0026.44-0.07-0.07
Notre DameACC0.190.1470.8367.930.080.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.170.1442.3146.12-0.03-0.01
WagnerNEC0.130.1460.8762.520.030.04
North FloridaASun0.230.1462.5064.120.060.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.230.1436.8442.88-0.06-0.02
VirginiaACC0.190.1483.3378.460.120.08
Central ArkansasSlnd0.160.1225.0029.89-0.08-0.05
CharlotteCUSA0.150.1237.5042.32-0.04-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.150.1283.3378.380.100.07
DetroitHorz0.150.1145.4543.87-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.180.1124.0024.92-0.09-0.06
Sacred HeartNEC0.090.1133.3336.31-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.090.1129.1726.69-0.04-0.05
NorthwesternB100.150.1164.0062.090.040.03
LongwoodBSth0.130.1121.7424.60-0.08-0.06
BuffaloMAC0.090.1156.5257.060.010.02
VermontAE0.090.1152.0054.860.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.090.1152.0048.920.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.130.1143.4844.90-0.02-0.01
PennIvy0.140.1138.8937.69-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.050.1158.3358.400.010.02
Wake ForestACC0.090.1141.6739.90-0.01-0.02
HartfordAE0.140.1124.0024.55-0.07-0.06
IowaB100.140.1179.1778.880.080.06
CincinnatiAmer0.130.1172.0071.570.060.05
NebraskaB100.040.1152.0050.760.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.150.0960.8757.130.030.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0914.2924.90-0.03-0.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.150.0960.8758.900.030.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.150.0954.5555.550.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0933.3332.04-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.150.0931.8234.54-0.06-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0931.8236.11-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.100.0966.6764.780.030.03
HofstraCAA0.100.0966.6766.770.030.03
MercerSC0.150.0966.6767.110.050.03
BYUWCC0.130.0968.0070.260.050.03
Kent St.MAC0.140.0965.2260.600.040.02
Miami FLACC0.150.0982.6177.580.100.05
Kansas St.B120.140.0958.3356.290.020.01
Miami OHMAC0.140.0934.7833.02-0.04-0.03
HowardMEAC0.040.0836.3638.97-0.01-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0842.3144.53-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0821.7422.75-0.03-0.05
Green BayHorz0.090.0856.5257.700.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.090.0833.3335.18-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0868.1867.730.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0824.0024.61-0.03-0.04
OaklandHorz0.140.0865.3865.510.040.03
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0882.6183.030.030.06
Wright St.Horz0.140.0854.1753.810.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0830.4332.26-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.140.0850.0049.480.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.140.0816.6719.49-0.09-0.05
XavierBE0.140.0887.5081.850.110.05
AlbanyAE0.130.0873.0873.780.060.04
DrexelCAA0.100.0813.0416.42-0.07-0.06
LafayettePat0.100.0820.8321.68-0.06-0.05
MaineAE0.080.0832.0031.16-0.03-0.03
MarylandB100.090.0887.5083.660.070.06
AmericanPat0.090.0829.1731.19-0.04-0.03
TowsonCAA0.140.0862.5057.730.030.01
VillanovaBE0.100.0887.5086.850.070.06
DukeACC0.090.0875.0071.840.050.04
Florida St.ACC0.090.0866.6763.300.030.02
Stony BrookAE0.130.0882.6183.010.090.05
WisconsinB100.140.0862.5057.000.030.01
ArkansasSEC0.140.0850.0052.940.000.00
DePaulBE0.090.0833.3334.02-0.03-0.03
RutgersB100.050.0821.7420.34-0.03-0.05
TennesseeSEC0.090.0850.0048.130.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.089.0917.14-0.07-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.0622.2231.22-0.06-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0618.1821.11-0.04-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0617.6526.67-0.00-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0676.1972.370.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.0660.0062.250.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0614.2920.64-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.069.0912.26-0.08-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.090.0679.1777.510.050.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0641.6741.18-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.050.0623.8125.99-0.02-0.03
PortlandWCC0.090.0638.4638.04-0.02-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.090.0681.8281.780.060.04
San DiegoWCC0.090.0630.4328.20-0.04-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0652.1749.150.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0638.1037.67-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.0650.0045.770.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.100.0636.0034.84-0.03-0.02
DrakeMVC0.090.0620.8323.28-0.06-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.0650.0049.320.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.090.0647.8350.89-0.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0650.0052.870.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.100.0647.6249.39-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.069.5210.67-0.04-0.05
MarshallCUSA0.050.0650.0051.110.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.090.0631.8235.12-0.03-0.02
OhioMAC0.050.0663.6461.470.010.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0665.3864.970.020.02
UABCUSA0.050.0683.3379.820.030.03
LehighPat0.090.0639.1342.83-0.02-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0645.4543.23-0.00-0.01
NJITASun0.090.0656.0055.640.010.01
Ohio St.B100.090.0660.0055.560.020.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0640.0042.04-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.040.0625.0023.45-0.02-0.03
TempleAmer0.050.0665.2262.370.020.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0625.0033.23-0.05-0.02
CornellIvy0.090.0642.1140.24-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.090.0625.0027.26-0.05-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0650.0048.950.00-0.00
PurdueB100.090.0680.0077.910.060.03
AlabamaSEC0.090.0660.8755.980.020.01
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0683.3383.710.060.04
FurmanSC0.090.0656.0054.430.010.00
MonmouthMAAC0.090.0680.0081.160.060.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0613.0415.26-0.07-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0673.0872.610.040.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0650.0050.500.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0658.3359.970.020.01
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0673.9176.700.050.03
William & MaryCAA0.090.0668.1867.110.030.02
North TexasCUSA0.090.0531.8232.46-0.03-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0566.6766.320.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0572.0071.320.020.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5058.940.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0556.0055.450.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0572.0069.130.000.02
ArmyPat0.050.0554.1754.290.000.00
BucknellPat0.090.0552.1754.940.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.040.0566.6765.240.010.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0543.4845.21-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0559.0955.160.020.01
MichiganB100.090.0570.8366.750.040.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0580.0081.560.030.03
New HampshireAE0.040.0559.0956.870.010.01
RadfordBSth0.090.0552.1754.100.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0540.9143.32-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0570.8368.080.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0520.0019.73-0.03-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.040.0537.5037.69-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.090.0543.4837.80-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0565.2268.600.030.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0565.2264.340.030.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0528.5733.30-0.04-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.040.0540.0040.34-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.040.0524.0025.68-0.02-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.040.0515.0018.13-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.040.0550.0054.180.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.040.0561.9065.330.010.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.040.0545.4554.18-0.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0335.0034.83-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.060.0312.0011.95-0.04-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0350.0049.760.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0352.9452.100.000.00
LamarSlnd0.060.0330.0029.13-0.02-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0345.0049.27-0.01-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0372.2275.600.030.02
AkronMAC0.050.0382.6181.140.030.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0331.8230.08-0.02-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0341.6739.49-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0325.0025.08-0.02-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0363.6461.550.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0359.0961.280.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0347.8348.57-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0347.8351.92-0.000.00
MontanaBSky0.050.0360.0062.710.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0319.0525.90-0.03-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0343.4850.64-0.010.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0329.1733.11-0.02-0.01
UCLAP120.050.0356.5253.400.010.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0368.1871.350.000.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0368.0066.640.020.01
DenverSum0.050.0352.0049.300.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0339.1342.98-0.01-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0326.0927.89-0.02-0.01
LipscombASun0.050.0328.0030.49-0.02-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0372.7370.520.000.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0327.2728.16-0.02-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0344.0043.56-0.01-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0330.0031.76-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0354.1754.200.000.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0313.0412.96-0.04-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0356.0056.510.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.0364.0062.070.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0335.0038.57-0.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0323.8125.49-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0322.7327.39-0.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0360.8755.310.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0379.1778.100.000.02
BrownIvy0.000.0331.5831.01-0.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.040.0328.5734.11-0.02-0.01
ColoradoP120.050.0370.8365.580.020.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0360.8760.240.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0340.0043.39-0.01-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0341.6739.59-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0370.8367.980.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.0345.8344.07-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0356.0054.080.000.00
IndianaB100.050.0380.0075.690.030.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0360.8760.670.000.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0334.7836.53-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0345.4549.05-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.040.0364.0064.460.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.040.0327.2726.45-0.02-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0345.8342.30-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0372.2274.700.000.01
TCUB120.000.0345.8339.36-0.00-0.01
VMISC0.050.0319.0519.67-0.03-0.02
WoffordSC0.050.0345.8348.12-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.040.0372.0073.080.020.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.040.0382.6181.130.030.02
HawaiiBW0.040.0385.0083.440.030.02
SeattleWAC0.040.0347.6245.02-0.00-0.00