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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Duquesne

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:267.0
Current RPI:267
Expected SOS:141
Current SOS:141
Current Record:10-22
Expected Record:10-22
Current Conf Record:3-16
Expected Conf Record:3-16
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-4
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:235
Expected OOC SOS:263



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-22267.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Duquesne.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Loyola MD (212.0)PatH65-60W100%0.0
11-13Penn St. (101.0)B10A82-74L0%0.0
11-16St. Francis PA (258.0)NECH89-75W100%0.0
11-18Canisius (171.0)MAACH77-78L0%0.0
11-20Kentucky (3.0)SECA93-59L0%0.0
11-23Tennessee Martin (164.0)OVCH63-66L0%0.0
11-27Cleveland St. (260.0)HorzH78-71W100%0.0
11-30UMBC (165.0)AEH72-81L0%0.0
12-2Pittsburgh (74.0)ACCN55-64W100%0.0
12-6Robert Morris (237.0)NECN64-60L0%0.0
12-10Central Connecticut (344.0)NECH70-67W100%0.0
12-19Jackson St. (323.0)SWACH74-62W100%0.0
12-22Colgate (294.0)PatH70-57W100%0.0
12-30Fordham (215.0)A10A72-75W100%0.0
1-4VCU (22.0)A10H87-94L0%0.0
1-7La Salle (133.0)A10A88-81L0%0.0
1-11Saint Louis (238.0)A10H73-66W100%0.0
1-14Dayton (30.0)A10H57-76L0%0.0
1-18George Washington (102.0)A10A65-63L0%0.0
1-21Rhode Island (31.0)A10H69-90L0%0.0
1-24Davidson (93.0)A10A74-60L0%0.0
1-28Richmond (80.0)A10A101-90L0%0.0
2-1St. Bonaventure (91.0)A10H64-71L0%0.0
2-4Dayton (30.0)A10A90-53L0%0.0
2-11Saint Louis (238.0)A10A87-81L0%0.0
2-15Massachusetts (195.0)A10H96-66W100%0.0
2-19George Washington (102.0)A10H70-77L0%0.0
2-22Fordham (215.0)A10H52-70L0%0.0
2-25St. Bonaventure (91.0)A10A80-77L0%0.0
3-1George Mason (103.0)A10A63-62L0%0.0
3-4Saint Joseph's (197.0)A10H60-63L0%0.0
3-8Saint Louis (238.0)A10H71-72L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Duquesne's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Duquesne's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Duquesne.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DuquesneA1026.1326.1324.3224.32-13.42-13.42
Saint LouisA105.285.2833.3333.33-1.76-1.76
St. BonaventureA103.813.8160.0060.000.760.76
George WashingtonA103.763.7654.8454.840.360.36
DaytonA103.733.7375.0075.001.861.86
FordhamA103.693.6937.9337.93-0.89-0.89
RichmondA102.292.2961.2961.290.520.52
George MasonA102.292.2958.0658.060.370.37
DavidsonA102.272.2751.6151.610.070.07
Rhode IslandA102.252.2571.8871.880.980.98
VCUA102.252.2575.7675.761.161.16
MassachusettsA102.232.2346.8846.88-0.14-0.14
La SalleA102.222.2248.2848.28-0.08-0.08
Saint Joseph'sA102.202.2033.3333.33-0.73-0.73
St. Francis PANEC1.711.7150.0050.000.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC1.711.7121.4321.43-0.98-0.98
Robert MorrisNEC1.691.6940.6240.62-0.32-0.32
CanisiusMAAC1.691.6953.1253.120.110.11
Penn St.B101.681.6843.7543.75-0.21-0.21
ColgatePat1.641.6430.0030.00-0.66-0.66
KentuckySEC1.641.6484.8584.851.141.14
Tennessee MartinOVC1.641.6460.0060.000.330.33
Cleveland St.Horz1.631.6327.5927.59-0.73-0.73
Loyola MDPat1.611.6148.2848.28-0.06-0.06
UMBCAE1.591.5955.5655.560.180.18
PittsburghACC1.591.5950.0050.000.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC1.561.5642.8642.86-0.22-0.22
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.280.2855.8855.880.030.03
LehighPat0.200.2061.2961.290.050.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.200.2034.4834.48-0.06-0.06
Sacred HeartNEC0.200.2040.6240.62-0.04-0.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.200.2061.2961.290.050.05
WagnerNEC0.200.2051.7251.720.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.180.1831.0331.03-0.07-0.07
BryantNEC0.180.1835.4835.48-0.05-0.05
BucknellPat0.180.1876.4776.470.090.09
St. Francis NYNEC0.180.1810.0010.00-0.14-0.14
AlabamaSEC0.170.1757.5857.580.030.03
LafayettePat0.150.1527.5927.59-0.07-0.07
Boston UniversityPat0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
ArmyPat0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
NavyPat0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
AmericanPat0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
PennIvy0.130.1346.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.130.1334.3834.38-0.04-0.04
RutgersB100.120.1243.7543.75-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.120.1280.0080.000.070.07
TempleAmer0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.120.1244.4444.44-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.120.1261.5461.540.030.03
RiderMAAC0.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.120.1217.8617.86-0.08-0.08
BuffaloMAC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
HartfordAE0.110.1128.1228.12-0.05-0.05
Stony BrookAE0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
TowsonCAA0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
NebraskaB100.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
MississippiSEC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
St. John'sBE0.100.1042.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.100.1030.3030.30-0.04-0.04
FloridaSEC0.090.0975.0075.000.050.05
North CarolinaACC0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
Kansas St.B120.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
MaristMAAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.093.333.33-0.09-0.09
VirginiaACC0.090.0968.7568.750.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
New HampshireAE0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
MaineAE0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
SouthernSWAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.080.0828.1228.12-0.03-0.03
VMISC0.080.0814.2914.29-0.05-0.05
NorthwesternB100.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
OaklandHorz0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.070.0777.7877.780.040.04
Notre DameACC0.070.0773.5373.530.040.04
MercerSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
PurdueB100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
SyracuseACC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
HofstraCAA0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
BYUWCC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0710.3410.34-0.06-0.06
DukeACC0.070.0777.1477.140.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Miami FLACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
SamfordSC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0712.9012.90-0.05-0.05
UCFAmer0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0787.8887.880.050.05
HowardMEAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
IllinoisB100.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
Michigan St.B100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
VermontAE0.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.056.906.90-0.05-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0529.4129.41-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
BrownIvy0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
YaleIvy0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
LipscombASun0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
NJITASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
BaylorB120.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.050.0578.5778.570.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
IndianaB100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
LSUSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
IowaB100.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
MichiganB100.020.0268.5768.570.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
PacificWCC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
SMUAmer0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
WisconsinB100.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
LibertyBSth0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
UCLAP120.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01