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Through games of Mar 11, 2012.


Duquesne

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:109.0
Current RPI:109
Expected SOS:57
Current SOS:57
Current Record:15-15
Expected Record:15-15
Current Conf Record:7-10
Expected Conf Record:7-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-9
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-1
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:90
Expected OOC SOS:81



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-15109.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Duquesne.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Arizona (79.0)P12A67-59L0%0.0
11-13Wisconsin Green Bay (148.0)HorzH84-66W100%0.0
11-19Akron (55.0)MACN76-81W100%0.0
11-20Valparaiso (95.0)HorzA84-68L0%0.0
11-26Louisiana Lafayette (185.0)SBH84-65W100%0.0
11-30Pittsburgh (96.0)BEN69-80L0%0.0
12-3Tennessee Tech (138.0)OVCH77-67W100%0.0
12-6Robert Morris (99.0)NECH60-64L0%0.0
12-10Penn St. (161.0)B10H66-59W100%0.0
12-17Western Michigan (205.0)MACA85-71L0%0.0
12-21George Mason (82.0)CAAA64-75W100%0.0
12-28Bowling Green (158.0)MACH86-76W100%0.0
12-31Houston Baptist (324.0)GWCH118-72W100%0.0
1-4Saint Joseph's (69.0)A10H82-84L0%0.0
1-7St. Bonaventure (72.0)A10H66-52W100%0.0
1-11Xavier (41.0)A10A78-50L0%0.0
1-14Rhode Island (257.0)A10A71-78W100%0.0
1-18Massachusetts (76.0)A10H80-69W100%0.0
1-21St. Louis (31.0)A10A68-41L0%0.0
1-28La Salle (90.0)A10H68-71L0%0.0
2-1Dayton (81.0)A10A73-83W100%0.0
2-4Richmond (127.0)A10H81-72W100%0.0
2-11St. Bonaventure (72.0)A10A69-48L0%0.0
2-15Fordham (240.0)A10H77-67W100%0.0
2-18Temple (19.0)A10A78-59L0%0.0
2-22Dayton (81.0)A10H62-74L0%0.0
2-25George Washington (188.0)A10A56-51L0%0.0
2-29Charlotte (167.0)A10A77-88W100%0.0
3-3St. Louis (31.0)A10H60-75L0%0.0
3-6Massachusetts (76.0)A10A92-83L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Duquesne's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Duquesne's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Duquesne.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DuquesneA1026.0126.0148.4648.46-0.80-0.80
MassachusettsA103.893.8967.7467.741.381.38
St. BonaventureA103.893.8965.5265.521.211.21
DaytonA103.863.8663.3363.331.031.03
St. LouisA103.863.8675.8675.861.991.99
XavierA102.382.3862.5062.500.600.60
La SalleA102.322.3262.5062.500.580.58
Saint Joseph'sA102.302.3059.3859.380.430.43
TempleA102.272.2776.6776.671.211.21
George WashingtonA102.252.2530.0030.00-0.90-0.90
Rhode IslandA102.252.2523.3323.33-1.20-1.20
RichmondA102.192.1951.6151.610.070.07
FordhamA102.192.1935.7135.71-0.63-0.63
CharlotteA102.192.1944.8344.83-0.23-0.23
Bowling GreenMAC1.821.8251.7251.720.060.06
ValparaisoHorz1.801.8063.3363.330.480.48
AkronMAC1.771.7767.7467.740.630.63
Western MichiganMAC1.751.7537.5037.50-0.44-0.44
Robert MorrisNEC1.741.7469.7069.700.690.69
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.721.7251.7251.720.060.06
Wisconsin Green BayHorz1.721.7248.1548.15-0.06-0.06
PittsburghBE1.721.7250.0050.000.000.00
Houston BaptistGWC1.691.6926.9226.92-0.78-0.78
ArizonaP121.691.6966.6766.670.560.56
George MasonCAA1.691.6975.0075.000.850.85
Penn St.B101.691.6938.7138.71-0.38-0.38
Tennessee TechOVC1.671.6758.6258.620.290.29
BuffaloMAC0.270.2764.2964.290.080.08
DetroitHorz0.250.2560.6160.610.050.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.240.2467.7467.740.090.09
Youngstown St.Horz0.220.2248.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.210.2164.5264.520.060.06
Miami OHMAC0.210.2127.5927.59-0.09-0.09
Central MichiganMAC0.190.1932.2632.26-0.07-0.07
OhioMAC0.180.1878.7978.790.110.11
ButlerHorz0.170.1757.5857.580.030.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.170.1725.0025.00-0.08-0.08
Arkansas St.SB0.160.1639.3939.39-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.160.1629.0329.03-0.07-0.07
Northern IllinoisMAC0.160.1613.7913.79-0.11-0.11
VillanovaBE0.160.1640.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.150.1582.3582.350.100.10
Ball St.MAC0.150.1548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.140.1439.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.140.1420.6920.69-0.08-0.08
Wright St.Horz0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.140.1496.4396.430.130.13
Eastern MichiganMAC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
SienaMAAC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Florida InternationalSB0.130.1328.5728.57-0.06-0.06
ToledoMAC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
PurdueB100.130.1363.6463.640.040.04
St. Francis PANEC0.130.1320.6920.69-0.08-0.08
MonmouthNEC0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
PennsylvaniaIvy0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
TowsonCAA0.130.133.123.12-0.12-0.12
Central ConnecticutNEC0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
LamarSlnd0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Miami FLACC0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
MississippiSEC0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
IllinoisB100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
DavidsonSC0.100.1077.4277.420.060.06
West VirginiaBE0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
St. John'sBE0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
NC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Seton HallBE0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
QuinnipiacNEC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
UtahP120.100.1016.6716.67-0.07-0.07
ColoradoP120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
North TexasSB0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
HarvardIvy0.080.0886.2186.210.060.06
SyracuseBE0.080.0893.9493.940.070.07
Western KentuckySB0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
NebraskaB100.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
MinnesotaB100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MemphisCUSA0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Boston UniversityAE0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Georgia St.CAA0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
HofstraCAA0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
OaklandSum0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
IonaMAAC0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
BucknellPat0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Old DominionCAA0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
South FloridaBE0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
College of CharlestonSC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Long IslandNEC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
RiderMAAC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.070.0780.6580.650.050.05
BryantNEC0.070.076.676.67-0.06-0.06
CampbellBSth0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Chicago St.GWC0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
North DakotaGWC0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyGWC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Texas St.Slnd0.060.0634.6234.62-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0637.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
RiceCUSA0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
CreightonMVC0.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DenverSB0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.066.676.67-0.05-0.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0632.0032.00-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
VirginiaACC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Middle TennesseeSB0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0564.7164.710.020.02
OklahomaB120.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0511.1111.11-0.04-0.04
BrownIvy0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
IowaB100.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
MichiganB100.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
CaliforniaP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
AmericanPat0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
HartfordAE0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
RutgersBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
CincinnatiBE0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
ElonSC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
LouisvilleBE0.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Oregon St.P120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0518.7518.75-0.03-0.03
Washington St.P120.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
IdahoWAC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
WyomingMWC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.036.456.45-0.03-0.03
ColgatePat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Appalachian St.SC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
High PointBSth0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
TroySB0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
MaineAE0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
YaleIvy0.030.0365.3865.380.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
LibertyBSth0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
NC GreensboroSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
DePaulBE0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HawaiiWAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Notre DameBE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
OregonP120.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
St. Peter'sMAAC0.020.0216.1316.13-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01