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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Delaware

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:225.1
Current RPI:192
Expected SOS:199
Current SOS:236
Current Record:2-3
Expected Record:12-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-5
Current OOC Record:2-3
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:231
Expected OOC SOS:279



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-10101.10.13%
18-11115.40.48%
17-12131.51.01%
16-13147.92.99%
15-14165.46.43%
14-15185.111.01%
13-16204.415.03%
12-17223.317.78%
11-18241.016.97%
10-19257.713.35%
9-20274.18.46%
8-21288.84.09%
7-22301.41.56%
6-23312.90.56%
5-24319.90.10%
4-25322.80.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Delaware.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Bradley (274.4)MVCA49-63W100%0.0
11-15La Salle (107.7)A10A74-68L0%0.0
11-18Miami OH (271.3)MACA66-68W100%0.0
11-19Northern Kentucky (176.9)HorzN53-74L0%0.0
11-20Austin Peay (212.5)OVCN76-75L0%0.0
12-2Delaware St. (289.6)MEACH0-081%10.6
12-11Yale (103.3)IvyA0-016%-12.0
12-17Seton Hall (76.8)BEA0-08%-17.1
12-20Marist (236.1)MAACH0-071%6.6
12-22South Florida (269.8)AmerA0-049%-0.4
12-28Iona (82.5)MAACH0-033%-5.4
12-31Hofstra (237.3)CAAH0-064%4.4
1-2College of Charleston (141.6)CAAH0-044%-1.7
1-5Northeastern (167.3)CAAA0-031%-6.0
1-7UNC Wilmington (50.6)CAAH0-023%-8.7
1-12Towson (160.8)CAAA0-026%-7.7
1-14Drexel (245.8)CAAA0-045%-1.6
1-19Northeastern (167.3)CAAH0-051%0.2
1-21Towson (160.8)CAAH0-045%-1.6
1-26William & Mary (121.0)CAAA0-023%-8.9
1-28James Madison (268.0)CAAH0-066%4.8
2-2Hofstra (237.3)CAAA0-044%-1.8
2-4UNC Wilmington (50.6)CAAA0-011%-14.8
2-9Elon (136.0)CAAH0-046%-1.3
2-11James Madison (268.0)CAAA0-046%-1.3
2-16Drexel (245.8)CAAH0-065%4.5
2-18William & Mary (121.0)CAAH0-041%-2.7
2-23College of Charleston (141.6)CAAA0-025%-7.9
2-25Elon (136.0)CAAA0-027%-7.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Delaware's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Delaware's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Delaware.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DelawareCAA29.5026.3851.8542.221.09-4.10
DrexelCAA1.004.4142.8636.22-0.14-1.22
HofstraCAA0.834.4157.1440.170.12-0.87
TowsonCAA0.004.4150.0053.770.000.33
ElonCAA0.004.4183.3357.600.000.67
College of CharlestonCAA0.004.3862.5055.890.000.52
James MadisonCAA0.004.380.0026.99-0.00-2.02
NortheasternCAA0.004.3857.1447.470.00-0.22
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.004.3883.3376.760.002.35
William & MaryCAA0.004.3740.0054.44-0.000.39
IonaMAAC0.001.8460.0070.240.000.74
Miami OHMAC11.831.7860.0034.192.37-0.56
Northern KentuckyHorz11.831.7840.0050.43-2.370.02
Austin PeayOVC11.671.7825.0039.49-5.83-0.37
South FloridaAmer0.001.7866.6731.570.00-0.66
BradleyMVC10.001.7860.0030.292.00-0.70
La SalleA1010.001.7850.0050.060.000.00
MaristMAAC0.001.7842.8635.90-0.00-0.50
Delaware St.MEAC0.001.7216.6736.97-0.00-0.45
Seton HallBE0.001.7271.4353.220.000.11
YaleIvy0.001.7233.3363.34-0.000.46
RiderMAAC0.000.2050.0047.990.00-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.2016.6734.31-0.00-0.06
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1866.6765.810.000.06
VermontAE0.000.1862.5071.630.000.08
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1775.0047.510.00-0.01
George MasonA100.830.1757.1442.940.12-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.1716.6733.82-0.00-0.06
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1760.0052.760.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1733.3338.19-0.00-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1771.4371.570.000.07
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1716.6727.03-0.00-0.08
SienaMAAC0.000.1728.5750.51-0.000.00
PennIvy0.000.1540.0057.97-0.000.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1542.8642.47-0.00-0.02
DukeACC0.000.1587.5078.680.000.09
Rhode IslandA100.000.1571.4370.330.000.06
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1542.8645.30-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.1550.0047.560.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.1583.3374.620.000.07
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1533.3340.39-0.00-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.1466.6770.740.000.06
UMBCAE0.000.1480.0055.340.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.14100.0083.120.000.10
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1416.6736.45-0.00-0.04
NevadaMWC0.000.1475.0070.470.000.06
HarvardIvy0.000.120.0043.04-0.00-0.02
CornellIvy0.000.1228.5730.63-0.00-0.05
Central MichiganMAC0.000.1266.6756.360.000.02
TempleAmer1.000.1271.4363.570.430.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.830.1250.0043.490.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.830.1250.0038.430.00-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1250.0050.290.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1266.6751.090.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1233.3338.76-0.00-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.1250.0051.820.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1216.6737.09-0.00-0.03
OaklandHorz0.000.1283.3378.430.000.07
RadfordBSth0.000.1233.3336.31-0.00-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1250.0046.780.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC1.000.1257.1467.020.140.04
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1150.0053.530.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.1150.0051.260.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1120.0034.22-0.00-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1133.3341.52-0.00-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1183.3362.080.000.03
BrownIvy0.000.0950.0042.420.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.090.0023.47-0.00-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.000.090.0034.18-0.00-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.090.0024.19-0.00-0.05
Fort WayneSum1.000.0966.6770.930.330.04
HartfordAE0.000.0912.5022.55-0.00-0.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0942.8638.05-0.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.090.0023.46-0.00-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.830.0966.6775.370.280.05
Wright St.Horz0.830.0971.4355.750.360.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0942.8646.78-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0980.0068.320.000.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0018.22-0.00-0.06
DavidsonA100.000.0983.3368.880.000.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0920.0034.39-0.00-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0966.6761.340.000.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.0950.0062.460.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0940.0030.80-0.00-0.03
RiceCUSA0.000.0985.7169.010.000.03
RichmondA100.000.0957.1448.600.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0928.5733.92-0.00-0.03
ToledoMAC0.000.0942.8650.36-0.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0983.3344.770.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.090.0021.30-0.00-0.05
PrincetonIvy0.000.0725.0063.95-0.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0640.0050.71-0.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0685.7175.950.000.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0633.3327.13-0.00-0.03
LehighPat1.000.0633.3367.01-0.330.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0640.0037.65-0.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0642.8661.90-0.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0657.1440.590.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0675.0054.320.000.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0650.0060.380.000.01
DaytonA101.000.0666.6772.440.330.03
IndianaB100.000.0683.3375.060.000.03
Morehead St.OVC0.830.0620.0041.93-0.50-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0614.2928.66-0.00-0.03
WoffordSC0.830.060.0033.58-0.83-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0683.3369.840.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0616.6731.91-0.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0633.3343.64-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0640.0050.91-0.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0633.3335.92-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0685.7180.960.000.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0616.6730.27-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0019.51-0.00-0.04
FIUCUSA0.000.0616.6733.69-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0657.1444.160.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0633.3348.71-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0683.3358.080.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0685.7159.740.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3333.15-0.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0038.35-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0024.32-0.00-0.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0633.3326.75-0.00-0.03
SMUAmer0.000.0657.1469.300.000.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0614.2926.81-0.00-0.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0039.200.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0650.0064.840.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0685.7174.430.000.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0642.8637.60-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0657.1443.680.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0650.0052.330.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0650.0050.940.000.00
IowaB100.000.0642.8644.33-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.06100.0080.780.000.04
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0620.0036.00-0.00-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.0650.0058.980.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0650.0027.250.00-0.03
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0075.690.000.03
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0033.54-0.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0666.6753.460.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0628.5739.44-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0076.650.000.03
DePaulBE0.000.0680.0035.960.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0683.3380.700.000.04
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0650.0066.170.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0633.3346.81-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0086.250.000.04
LafayettePat0.000.0633.3331.87-0.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0683.3357.990.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0625.0024.66-0.00-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0666.6754.420.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0633.3340.49-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0671.4349.770.00-0.00
MaineAE0.000.0616.6725.61-0.00-0.03
MarquetteBE0.000.0671.4363.090.000.02
MarylandB100.000.0685.7156.490.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0650.0061.590.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0685.7173.010.000.03
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0675.0064.960.000.02
NavyPat0.000.0628.5743.62-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0640.0057.49-0.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0671.4356.280.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0625.0039.28-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0657.1447.220.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0650.0046.670.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0640.0027.05-0.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.0633.3338.20-0.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0671.4352.370.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0616.6718.96-0.00-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0671.4386.030.000.04
XavierBE0.000.06100.0074.800.000.03
BryantNEC0.000.0328.5750.20-0.000.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0385.7155.550.000.00
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0082.550.000.02
WashingtonP120.000.0357.1452.630.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0383.3362.840.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0340.0061.37-0.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0357.1447.320.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.000.0314.2933.07-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0383.3370.360.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0342.8634.17-0.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.0342.8640.94-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0375.0067.660.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.0337.5034.65-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0055.850.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6751.460.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0350.0071.330.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.830.0328.5734.18-0.36-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0383.3376.370.000.02
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0038.26-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.830.0357.1442.660.12-0.00
IUPUISum0.000.0328.5747.72-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0328.5730.29-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.23-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0350.0053.050.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0350.0045.920.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.77-0.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.0333.3332.23-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0385.7178.150.000.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0383.3380.550.000.02
Western IllinoisSum0.830.030.0022.69-0.83-0.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0383.3363.610.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0017.30-0.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0387.5075.320.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0371.4346.010.00-0.00
StanfordP120.000.0375.0059.100.000.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0059.480.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0357.1464.940.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0385.7162.410.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0350.0056.260.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0342.8647.69-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0357.1459.480.000.01
NJITASun0.000.0342.8650.32-0.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0033.44-0.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0325.0040.81-0.00-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0320.0054.94-0.000.00