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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Delaware

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:65.0
Current RPI:65
Expected SOS:177
Current SOS:177
Current Record:25-9
Expected Record:25-9
Current Conf Record:17-2
Expected Conf Record:17-2
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:18-1
Current OOC Record:8-7
Expected OOC Record:8-7
Expected OOC RPI:97
Expected OOC SOS:132



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-965.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Delaware.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Richmond (75.0)A10A71-69L0%0.0
11-10Charleston Southern (268.0)BSthH93-95L0%0.0
11-17Hampton (204.0)MEACA79-90W100%0.0
11-19Army (235.0)PatA74-89W100%0.0
11-22Villanova (5.0)BEA84-80L0%0.0
11-25Delaware St. (329.0)MEACA70-80W100%0.0
11-30Robert Morris (129.0)NECH86-67W100%0.0
12-3Charleston Southern (268.0)BSthA80-85W100%0.0
12-7Notre Dame (136.0)ACCA80-75L0%0.0
12-16North Dakota St. (35.0)SumA85-66L0%0.0
12-18Ohio St. (24.0)B10A76-64L0%0.0
12-21Bryant (177.0)NECN108-107W100%0.0
12-30St. Bonaventure (89.0)A10A80-73L0%0.0
1-1Liberty (311.0)BSthH77-64W100%0.0
1-4Cal Poly (208.0)BWH82-72W100%0.0
1-8Hofstra (277.0)CAAH86-79W100%0.0
1-11James Madison (233.0)CAAA74-78W100%0.0
1-15William & Mary (119.0)CAAH76-71W100%0.0
1-18Northeastern (222.0)CAAA70-74W100%0.0
1-20Drexel (132.0)CAAA77-90W100%0.0
1-25Towson (95.0)CAAH83-76W100%0.0
1-29William & Mary (119.0)CAAA72-89W100%0.0
2-1UNC Wilmington (281.0)CAAH66-65W100%0.0
2-3Northeastern (222.0)CAAH80-67W100%0.0
2-5College of Charleston (242.0)CAAH67-64W100%0.0
2-12James Madison (233.0)CAAH81-65W100%0.0
2-17Towson (95.0)CAAA78-63L0%0.0
2-19Hofstra (277.0)CAAA77-81W100%0.0
2-23Drexel (132.0)CAAH65-69L0%0.0
2-26UNC Wilmington (281.0)CAAA57-70W100%0.0
3-1College of Charleston (242.0)CAAA86-89W100%0.0
3-8Hofstra (277.0)CAAN87-76W100%0.0
3-9Northeastern (222.0)CAAN87-74W100%0.0
3-10William & Mary (119.0)CAAN75-74W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Delaware's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Delaware's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Delaware.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DelawareCAA26.5226.5278.4078.4015.0615.06
William & MaryCAA5.335.3367.8667.861.901.90
HofstraCAA5.245.2433.3333.33-1.75-1.75
NortheasternCAA5.245.2437.9337.93-1.26-1.26
TowsonCAA3.913.9168.9768.971.481.48
UNC WilmingtonCAA3.883.8825.0025.00-1.94-1.94
James MadisonCAA3.843.8437.9337.93-0.93-0.93
College of CharlestonCAA3.813.8144.8344.83-0.39-0.39
DrexelCAA3.813.8153.5753.570.270.27
Charleston SouthernBSth3.023.0232.0032.00-1.09-1.09
RichmondA101.771.7756.2556.250.220.22
LibertyBSth1.671.6728.5728.57-0.72-0.72
HamptonMEAC1.641.6462.0762.070.400.40
North Dakota St.Sum1.591.5977.7877.780.880.88
BryantNEC1.581.5856.6756.670.210.21
Notre DameACC1.571.5745.1645.16-0.15-0.15
Ohio St.B101.541.5472.7372.730.700.70
Robert MorrisNEC1.521.5263.6463.640.410.41
VillanovaBE1.521.5287.1087.101.131.13
St. BonaventureA101.521.5251.6151.610.050.05
Delaware St.MEAC1.501.5025.9325.93-0.72-0.72
ArmyPat1.491.4948.2848.28-0.05-0.05
Cal PolyBW1.471.4737.9337.93-0.35-0.35
CampbellBSth0.260.2632.1432.14-0.09-0.09
HowardMEAC0.250.2519.3519.35-0.15-0.15
WinthropBSth0.230.2356.6756.670.030.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.230.2348.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.230.2334.4834.48-0.07-0.07
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.220.2231.0331.03-0.09-0.09
High PointBSth0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.200.2035.4835.48-0.06-0.06
Old DominionCUSA0.190.1948.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.190.1960.0060.000.040.04
VMIBSth0.180.1855.5655.560.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.170.1748.3948.39-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.160.1632.2632.26-0.06-0.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
VCUA100.160.1676.4776.470.080.08
Sacred HeartNEC0.160.1616.1316.13-0.11-0.11
Florida St.ACC0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
RutgersAmer0.140.1434.3834.38-0.05-0.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.140.1493.1093.100.120.12
VirginiaACC0.140.1482.3582.350.090.09
Boston UniversityPat0.140.1470.5970.590.060.06
St. Francis NYNEC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.140.1472.7372.730.060.06
George WashingtonA100.140.1475.0075.000.070.07
IowaB100.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
TulaneCUSA0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.130.1313.3313.33-0.10-0.10
RadfordBSth0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.120.1225.9325.93-0.06-0.06
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.120.1268.9768.970.050.05
NavyPat0.120.1227.5927.59-0.05-0.05
BuffaloMAC0.120.1264.2964.290.030.03
The CitadelSC0.120.1213.7913.79-0.09-0.09
NJITind0.120.1236.0036.00-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
CharlotteCUSA0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.120.1260.6160.610.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
GeorgetownBE0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
LouisvilleAmer0.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
La SalleA100.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.110.1114.2914.29-0.08-0.08
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1017.8617.86-0.07-0.07
Cal St. FullertonBW0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
DavidsonSC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
DaytonA100.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
LafayettePat0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.090.0986.2186.210.070.07
Wake ForestACC0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0921.8821.88-0.05-0.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
WagnerNEC0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
SienaMAAC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
DenverSum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
IPFWSum0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.070.0788.2488.240.060.06
BucknellPat0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0767.8667.860.030.03
FurmanSC0.070.0725.9325.93-0.04-0.04
LehighPat0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
West VirginiaB120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.070.07100.00100.000.070.07
WoffordSC0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
AmericanPat0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
KansasB120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Miami FLACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
TempleAmer0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
UABCUSA0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.070.0775.0075.000.030.03
Saint LouisA100.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
MarquetteBE0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
FordhamA100.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
MinnesotaB100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
NebraskaB100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
PurdueB100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0524.0024.00-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
IUPUISum0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0583.8783.870.030.03
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
ElonSC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
UC DavisBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Western KentuckySB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
DetroitHorz0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
UMBCAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
CornellIvy0.050.053.703.70-0.04-0.04
CreightonBE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
DePaulBE0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
XavierBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.040.0453.1253.120.000.00
MarylandACC0.040.0451.6151.610.000.00
OhioMAC0.040.0466.6766.670.010.01
IllinoisB100.040.0457.5857.580.010.01
MichiganB100.040.0475.7675.760.020.02
Michigan St.B100.040.0476.4776.470.020.02
Penn St.B100.040.0446.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0214.8114.81-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
PacificWCC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.020.0251.8551.850.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
VermontAE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
YaleIvy0.020.0251.8551.850.000.00
DukeACC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
IonaMAAC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0221.2121.21-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
PennIvy0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
USCP120.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0294.1294.120.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
KentuckySEC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0234.6234.62-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
WyomingMWC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00