Delaware

Conference:	CAA
Expected RPI:	233.0
Current RPI:	233
Expected SOS:	182
Current SOS:	182
Current Record:	12-19
Expected Record:	12-19
Current Conf Record:	7-13
Expected Conf Record:	7-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-9
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-2
Current OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC RPI:	227
Expected OOC SOS:	244

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-19	233.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Delaware.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Richmond (176.0)	A10	A	63-76	W	100%
11-14	Bradley (105.0)	MVC	A	61-53	L	0%
11-20	UNC Greensboro (65.0)	SC	A	79-66	L	0%
11-22	Longwood (337.0)	BSth	N	57-65	W	100%
11-27	Yale (183.0)	Ivy	H	66-76	L	0%
12-1	Navy (200.0)	Pat	A	82-76	L	0%
12-6	Buffalo (25.0)	MAC	H	72-75	L	0%
12-9	Notre Dame (70.0)	ACC	H	68-92	L	0%
12-17	Delaware St. (351.0)	MEAC	A	59-68	W	100%
12-20	Cal St. Bakersfield (220.0)	WAC	H	76-62	W	100%
12-28	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	H	97-96	W	100%
12-30	UNC Wilmington (245.0)	CAA	A	56-58	W	100%
1-2	College of Charleston (57.0)	CAA	A	93-78	L	0%
1-5	William & Mary (94.0)	CAA	H	65-90	L	0%
1-7	UNC Wilmington (245.0)	CAA	H	96-76	W	100%
1-11	Drexel (242.0)	CAA	H	72-66	W	100%
1-13	James Madison (272.0)	CAA	A	60-61	W	100%
1-18	Hofstra (121.0)	CAA	A	90-63	L	0%
1-20	Northeastern (55.0)	CAA	A	76-64	L	0%
1-25	College of Charleston (57.0)	CAA	H	54-62	L	0%
1-27	Hofstra (121.0)	CAA	H	59-64	L	0%
2-1	Towson (153.0)	CAA	H	71-75	L	0%
2-3	Elon (205.0)	CAA	A	89-76	L	0%
2-8	Northeastern (55.0)	CAA	H	67-70	L	0%
2-10	William & Mary (94.0)	CAA	A	83-66	L	0%
2-15	Towson (153.0)	CAA	A	67-65	L	0%
2-17	Elon (205.0)	CAA	H	72-57	W	100%
2-22	Drexel (242.0)	CAA	A	85-83	L	0%
2-24	James Madison (272.0)	CAA	H	68-66	W	100%
3-3	Elon (205.0)	CAA	N	86-79	W	100%
3-4	Northeastern (55.0)	CAA	N	74-50	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Delaware's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Delaware's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Delaware.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Delaware	CAA	26.50	26.50	38.10	38.10	-6.31	-6.31
Northeastern	CAA	5.88	5.88	65.52	65.52	1.82	1.82
Elon	CAA	5.76	5.76	40.74	40.74	-1.07	-1.07
College of Charleston	CAA	4.36	4.36	75.86	75.86	2.25	2.25
UNC Wilmington	CAA	4.33	4.33	32.14	32.14	-1.55	-1.55
Drexel	CAA	4.28	4.28	36.67	36.67	-1.14	-1.14
William & Mary	CAA	4.28	4.28	55.56	55.56	0.48	0.48
James Madison	CAA	4.25	4.25	31.03	31.03	-1.61	-1.61
Towson	CAA	4.23	4.23	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Hofstra	CAA	4.23	4.23	57.14	57.14	0.60	0.60
UNC Greensboro	SC	1.77	1.77	76.67	76.67	0.95	0.95
Cornell	Ivy	1.77	1.77	42.31	42.31	-0.27	-0.27
Yale	Ivy	1.67	1.67	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
Longwood	BSth	1.67	1.67	13.79	13.79	-1.21	-1.21
Richmond	A10	1.66	1.66	38.71	38.71	-0.38	-0.38
Bradley	MVC	1.61	1.61	58.06	58.06	0.26	0.26
Buffalo	MAC	1.61	1.61	75.00	75.00	0.81	0.81
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	1.61	1.61	34.62	34.62	-0.50	-0.50
Delaware St.	MEAC	1.61	1.61	6.90	6.90	-1.39	-1.39
Navy	Pat	1.61	1.61	60.00	60.00	0.32	0.32
Notre Dame	ACC	1.61	1.61	56.25	56.25	0.20	0.20
Furman	SC	0.26	0.26	67.74	67.74	0.09	0.09
Penn	Ivy	0.25	0.25	74.19	74.19	0.12	0.12
Harvard	Ivy	0.22	0.22	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Radford	BSth	0.21	0.21	62.50	62.50	0.05	0.05
Boston University	Pat	0.21	0.21	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.19	0.19	40.74	40.74	-0.03	-0.03
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.19	0.19	78.12	78.12	0.10	0.10
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.18	0.18	78.12	78.12	0.10	0.10
Columbia	Ivy	0.17	0.17	26.92	26.92	-0.08	-0.08
George Mason	A10	0.16	0.16	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola MD	Pat	0.16	0.16	26.67	26.67	-0.07	-0.07
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.16	0.16	25.00	25.00	-0.08	-0.08
Vermont	AE	0.15	0.15	78.79	78.79	0.09	0.09
Bucknell	Pat	0.15	0.15	73.53	73.53	0.07	0.07
Kent St.	MAC	0.15	0.15	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Southern	SB	0.14	0.14	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.14	0.14	23.08	23.08	-0.07	-0.07
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
FIU	CUSA	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.13	0.13	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Ohio St.	B10	0.13	0.13	75.00	75.00	0.07	0.07
Indiana St.	MVC	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
The Citadel	SC	0.13	0.13	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
Duke	ACC	0.13	0.13	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
La Salle	A10	0.13	0.13	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.13	0.13	84.38	84.38	0.09	0.09
Drake	MVC	0.13	0.13	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.11	0.11	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
Princeton	Ivy	0.11	0.11	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Chicago St.	WAC	0.11	0.11	3.33	3.33	-0.10	-0.10
Campbell	BSth	0.11	0.11	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Army	Pat	0.11	0.11	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Canisius	MAAC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Davidson	A10	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Rider	MAAC	0.10	0.10	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Valparaiso	MVC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.10	0.10	17.86	17.86	-0.07	-0.07
Western Carolina	SC	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Mercer	SC	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.09	0.09	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Hampton	MEAC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
TCU	B12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Colgate	Pat	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Milwaukee	Horz	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Monmouth	MAAC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.08	0.08	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
UMBC	AE	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Liberty	BSth	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.08	0.08	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
VMI	SC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Central Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
LSU	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Wofford	SC	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
UTSA	CUSA	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Wichita St.	Amer	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Stanford	P12	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
NJIT	ASun	0.07	0.07	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.07	0.07	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Idaho	BSky	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	83.33	83.33	0.04	0.04
Seattle	WAC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
UCF	Amer	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Horz	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	15.62	15.62	-0.04	-0.04
American	Pat	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Appalachian St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	93.94	93.94	0.04	0.04
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Houston	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.05	0.05	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Temple	Amer	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
VCU	A10	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	Amer	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
UMass Lowell	AE	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Albany	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Creighton	BE	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Denver	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Horz	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.02	0.02	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.02	0.02	80.00	80.00	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01