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Through games of Feb 26, 2017.


Delaware

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:248.6
Current RPI:249
Expected SOS:189
Current SOS:191
Current Record:10-19
Expected Record:10-19
Current Conf Record:5-13
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-3
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:226
Expected OOC SOS:306



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-19248.6100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Delaware.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Bradley (222.8)MVCA49-63W100%0.0
11-15La Salle (116.1)A10A74-68L0%0.0
11-18Miami OH (311.0)MACA66-68W100%0.0
11-19Northern Kentucky (100.7)HorzN53-74L0%0.0
11-20Austin Peay (260.3)OVCN76-75L0%0.0
12-2Delaware St. (331.5)MEACH64-49W100%0.0
12-11Yale (147.0)IvyA81-63L0%0.0
12-17Seton Hall (50.7)BEA81-68L0%0.0
12-20Marist (278.5)MAACH59-56W100%0.0
12-22South Florida (305.9)AmerA81-53L0%0.0
12-28Iona (117.9)MAACH63-54W100%0.0
12-31Hofstra (181.9)CAAH56-58L0%0.0
1-2College of Charleston (66.4)CAAH56-65L0%0.0
1-5Northeastern (127.0)CAAA90-54L0%0.0
1-7UNC Wilmington (34.0)CAAH81-91L0%0.0
1-12Towson (96.0)CAAA83-56L0%0.0
1-14Drexel (281.3)CAAA76-60L0%0.0
1-19Northeastern (127.0)CAAH69-62W100%0.0
1-21Towson (96.0)CAAH58-75L0%0.0
1-26William & Mary (126.1)CAAA82-58L0%0.0
1-28James Madison (258.1)CAAH66-61W100%0.0
2-2Hofstra (181.9)CAAA73-65L0%0.0
2-4UNC Wilmington (34.0)CAAA108-80L0%0.0
2-9Elon (148.9)CAAH76-74W100%0.0
2-11James Madison (258.1)CAAA57-58W100%0.0
2-16Drexel (281.3)CAAH68-67W100%0.0
2-18William & Mary (126.1)CAAH64-85L0%0.0
2-23College of Charleston (66.4)CAAA78-65L0%0.0
2-25Elon (148.9)CAAA81-59L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Delaware's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Delaware's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Delaware.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DelawareCAA26.3926.3834.1534.15-8.37-8.36
DrexelCAA4.424.4225.0025.00-2.21-2.21
HofstraCAA4.424.4242.8642.86-0.63-0.63
TowsonCAA4.424.4257.1457.140.630.63
ElonCAA4.424.4155.5655.560.490.49
College of CharlestonCAA4.394.3971.4371.431.881.88
James MadisonCAA4.394.3928.5728.57-1.88-1.88
NortheasternCAA4.394.3950.0050.000.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA4.384.3881.4881.482.762.76
William & MaryCAA4.384.3848.0048.00-0.18-0.18
IonaMAAC1.841.8463.3363.330.490.49
Miami OHMAC1.781.7830.7729.06-0.69-0.75
Northern KentuckyHorz1.791.7864.2964.290.510.51
Austin PeayOVC1.791.7829.6329.63-0.73-0.73
South FloridaAmer1.781.7823.0822.55-0.96-0.98
BradleyMVC1.781.7837.9337.93-0.43-0.43
La SalleA101.781.7850.0051.700.000.06
MaristMAAC1.781.7826.6726.67-0.83-0.83
Delaware St.MEAC1.721.7225.9326.93-0.83-0.80
Seton HallBE1.721.7262.9661.340.450.39
YaleIvy1.721.7256.5258.430.220.29
RiderMAAC0.200.2054.8454.840.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.200.2033.3333.33-0.07-0.07
Old DominionCUSA0.180.1864.2964.650.050.05
East CarolinaAmer0.180.1844.8343.04-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.180.1883.3383.330.120.12
George MasonA100.180.1760.7159.910.040.03
Stony BrookAE0.170.1758.6258.620.030.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.170.1732.2632.26-0.06-0.06
MonmouthMAAC0.170.1783.8783.870.110.11
NiagaraMAAC0.170.1729.0329.03-0.07-0.07
SienaMAAC0.170.1748.3948.39-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.160.1548.0049.55-0.01-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.120.1541.6741.50-0.02-0.03
DukeACC0.150.1575.8674.140.080.07
Rhode IslandA100.160.1567.8668.280.060.06
Northern IllinoisMAC0.160.1546.1546.13-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.150.1544.8344.83-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.120.1548.2847.22-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.150.1564.2963.720.040.04
UCFAmer0.120.1565.5266.270.040.05
Western MichiganMAC0.150.1544.4445.39-0.02-0.01
UMBCAE0.150.1459.2659.260.030.03
VillanovaBE0.150.1490.0089.570.120.11
NevadaMWC0.140.1479.3179.090.080.08
CornellIvy0.090.1223.0823.48-0.05-0.07
HarvardIvy0.130.1269.5767.060.050.04
Central MichiganMAC0.130.1251.8550.780.000.00
TempleAmer0.100.1250.0050.990.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.120.1244.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.120.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.120.1242.3142.27-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.120.1248.1548.26-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.120.1257.1456.880.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1246.1546.81-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.120.1275.8675.860.060.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.1235.7136.08-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.120.1260.7163.340.030.03
Boston UniversityPat0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.120.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
BrownIvy0.100.0938.4639.38-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.100.0924.0022.79-0.05-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.090.0940.0041.67-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0936.0035.98-0.03-0.03
Fort WayneSum0.090.0959.2659.260.020.02
HartfordAE0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.090.0941.9441.94-0.02-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0919.2319.72-0.06-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0976.0077.290.050.05
ToledoMAC0.090.0950.0050.440.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
OhioMAC0.060.0965.3866.640.020.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0925.9326.04-0.04-0.04
DavidsonA100.090.0951.8551.280.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0932.0030.44-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0957.6957.810.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.090.0948.1547.91-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.090.0923.0822.49-0.05-0.05
RiceCUSA0.090.0966.6765.550.030.03
RichmondA100.090.0960.7161.450.020.02
St. John'sBE0.090.0944.8343.89-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.090.0942.8642.28-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
PrincetonIvy0.070.0775.0075.780.040.03
LibertyBSth0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.060.0679.3179.060.040.04
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0611.1111.11-0.05-0.05
LehighPat0.070.0660.7160.710.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0620.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
AlbanyAE0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
DaytonA100.060.0681.4880.740.040.04
IndianaB100.060.0655.1753.960.010.00
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0644.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0678.5778.180.020.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0619.2322.18-0.04-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0642.8642.02-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.060.0648.1548.55-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.060.0630.7732.97-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0686.2185.440.050.04
ClemsonACC0.060.0650.0052.370.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0678.5778.180.030.03
FIUCUSA0.060.0614.8114.35-0.04-0.04
FordhamA100.030.0642.8642.42-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.060.0655.1754.140.010.00
Green BayHorz0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
MassachusettsA100.060.0648.2847.58-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.060.0662.0761.430.020.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0685.7186.430.040.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.1547.90-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.060.001.83-0.06-0.06
Saint LouisA100.030.0634.4833.33-0.01-0.02
SMUAmer0.060.0686.2186.520.050.04
TulaneAmer0.060.0617.8618.08-0.04-0.04
TulsaAmer0.060.0650.0049.050.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0672.4172.410.030.03
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.060.0660.7159.770.010.01
HawaiiBW0.060.0650.0048.750.00-0.00
IowaB100.060.0655.1754.140.010.00
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0671.4371.670.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0624.0025.26-0.03-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.060.0665.3865.550.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0631.0329.49-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.030.0679.3179.350.020.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.060.0644.4445.74-0.01-0.00
CreightonBE0.060.0675.0074.570.030.03
DePaulBE0.060.0631.0330.04-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.060.0644.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0682.7682.760.040.04
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.060.0682.7682.930.040.04
LafayettePat0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.060.0614.8114.81-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.060.0632.1431.69-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.060.0660.7159.700.010.01
MarylandB100.060.0675.0074.310.030.03
Michigan St.B100.060.0662.0761.020.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
NavyPat0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.060.0662.0762.540.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
The CitadelSC0.060.0625.9325.45-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.060.0657.1455.730.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0621.4322.56-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0686.6786.670.040.04
XavierBE0.060.0662.0762.620.010.01
BryantNEC0.040.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.040.0351.7250.150.000.00
VirginiaACC0.040.0367.8668.150.010.01
WashingtonP120.040.0332.1430.72-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0375.8673.450.020.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0380.7780.770.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
LipscombASun0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0344.8345.81-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0374.1974.190.020.01
DuquesneA100.030.0334.4834.29-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0340.0041.22-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0366.6767.530.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0374.0774.070.020.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0340.0042.28-0.01-0.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0371.4370.580.010.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0318.5220.52-0.00-0.02
IllinoisB100.030.0357.1457.010.000.00
IUPUISum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0333.3335.14-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.030.0342.8643.57-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.0025.17-0.02-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0330.7730.93-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.030.0351.8551.300.000.00
VCUA100.030.0379.3178.000.020.02
West VirginiaB120.030.0379.3178.510.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0324.0024.00-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.030.0367.8666.480.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0311.1111.53-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.030.0379.3179.350.020.02
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.0760.370.010.01
StanfordP120.030.0348.1546.78-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.030.0357.1456.900.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0376.9276.820.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.030.0379.3177.540.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0367.8666.440.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
NJITASun0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0316.0016.70-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0356.0057.060.000.00