Delaware

Conference:	CAA
Expected RPI:	141.0
Current RPI:	141
Expected SOS:	173
Current SOS:	173
Current Record:	19-14
Expected Record:	19-14
Current Conf Record:	14-6
Expected Conf Record:	14-6
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	14-1
Current OOC Record:	5-8
Expected OOC Record:	5-8
Expected OOC RPI:	139
Expected OOC SOS:	29

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
19-14	141.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Delaware.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	La Salle (46.0)	A10	A	73-66	L	0%
11-12	Pennsylvania (280.0)	Ivy	N	84-69	W	100%
11-13	Virginia (76.0)	ACC	A	53-59	W	100%
11-21	Kansas St. (19.0)	B12	N	66-63	L	0%
11-23	Pittsburgh (44.0)	BE	N	85-59	L	0%
11-25	Temple (42.0)	A10	A	80-75	L	0%
11-28	Lafayette (153.0)	Pat	A	63-60	L	0%
12-1	Duke (1.0)	ACC	A	88-50	L	0%
12-4	Radford (316.0)	BSth	H	68-59	W	100%
12-8	Delaware St. (263.0)	MEAC	H	67-73	L	0%
12-16	Villanova (52.0)	BE	A	75-65	L	0%
12-21	Pennsylvania (280.0)	Ivy	H	83-60	W	100%
12-31	Rider (145.0)	MAAC	H	73-66	W	100%
1-5	Old Dominion (318.0)	CAA	A	72-84	W	100%
1-9	Hofstra (325.0)	CAA	H	69-54	W	100%
1-12	Georgia St. (209.0)	CAA	A	83-86	W	100%
1-16	Towson (157.0)	CAA	H	66-69	L	0%
1-19	Northeastern (159.0)	CAA	H	70-74	L	0%
1-23	James Madison (182.0)	CAA	A	64-50	L	0%
1-28	Drexel (206.0)	CAA	A	64-66	W	100%
1-30	William & Mary (271.0)	CAA	H	66-56	W	100%
2-2	NC Wilmington (301.0)	CAA	H	71-56	W	100%
2-6	Towson (157.0)	CAA	A	85-65	L	0%
2-9	George Mason (162.0)	CAA	A	72-79	W	100%
2-11	Old Dominion (318.0)	CAA	H	75-73	W	100%
2-13	Northeastern (159.0)	CAA	A	74-76	W	100%
2-17	James Madison (182.0)	CAA	H	71-72	L	0%
2-21	Drexel (206.0)	CAA	H	73-71	W	100%
2-23	NC Wilmington (301.0)	CAA	A	78-79	W	100%
2-27	Hofstra (325.0)	CAA	A	56-57	W	100%
3-2	George Mason (162.0)	CAA	H	82-77	W	100%
3-9	Hofstra (325.0)	CAA	N	62-57	W	100%
3-10	James Madison (182.0)	CAA	N	57-58	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Delaware's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Delaware's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Delaware.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Delaware	CAA	26.43	26.43	59.24	59.24	4.88	4.88
James Madison	CAA	5.34	5.34	54.84	54.84	0.52	0.52
Hofstra	CAA	5.26	5.26	21.43	21.43	-3.00	-3.00
George Mason	CAA	3.95	3.95	60.00	60.00	0.79	0.79
Drexel	CAA	3.95	3.95	44.83	44.83	-0.41	-0.41
Northeastern	CAA	3.93	3.93	63.33	63.33	1.05	1.05
Towson	CAA	3.86	3.86	53.57	53.57	0.28	0.28
NC Wilmington	CAA	3.81	3.81	33.33	33.33	-1.27	-1.27
Old Dominion	CAA	3.81	3.81	17.86	17.86	-2.45	-2.45
Pennsylvania	Ivy	3.17	3.17	31.03	31.03	-1.20	-1.20
William & Mary	CAA	2.48	2.48	42.86	42.86	-0.35	-0.35
Georgia St.	CAA	2.42	2.42	48.28	48.28	-0.08	-0.08
Temple	A10	1.69	1.69	70.97	70.97	0.71	0.71
La Salle	A10	1.68	1.68	68.97	68.97	0.64	0.64
Villanova	BE	1.66	1.66	58.06	58.06	0.27	0.27
Virginia	ACC	1.64	1.64	67.74	67.74	0.58	0.58
Radford	BSth	1.59	1.59	35.71	35.71	-0.45	-0.45
Rider	MAAC	1.59	1.59	58.06	58.06	0.26	0.26
Duke	ACC	1.59	1.59	83.87	83.87	1.08	1.08
Pittsburgh	BE	1.59	1.59	74.19	74.19	0.77	0.77
Lafayette	Pat	1.56	1.56	53.12	53.12	0.10	0.10
Delaware St.	MEAC	1.54	1.54	40.00	40.00	-0.31	-0.31
Kansas St.	B12	1.52	1.52	78.12	78.12	0.85	0.85
Richmond	A10	0.29	0.29	56.25	56.25	0.04	0.04
Hampton	MEAC	0.24	0.24	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.24	0.24	55.88	55.88	0.03	0.03
Princeton	Ivy	0.24	0.24	59.26	59.26	0.04	0.04
George Washington	A10	0.24	0.24	43.33	43.33	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.21	0.21	64.71	64.71	0.06	0.06
Purdue	B10	0.18	0.18	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.17	0.17	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.17	0.17	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Wagner	NEC	0.17	0.17	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Monmouth	NEC	0.17	0.17	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.15	0.15	23.33	23.33	-0.08	-0.08
Charlotte	A10	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Bucknell	Pat	0.14	0.14	84.38	84.38	0.10	0.10
Lehigh	Pat	0.14	0.14	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
Duquesne	A10	0.14	0.14	26.67	26.67	-0.07	-0.07
NC Asheville	BSth	0.13	0.13	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	SC	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.12	0.12	20.69	20.69	-0.07	-0.07
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.12	0.12	76.47	76.47	0.07	0.07
Butler	A10	0.12	0.12	75.76	75.76	0.06	0.06
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.12	0.12	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Fordham	A10	0.12	0.12	22.58	22.58	-0.07	-0.07
Columbia	Ivy	0.12	0.12	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
Cornell	Ivy	0.12	0.12	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.12	0.12	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Holy Cross	Pat	0.12	0.12	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Long Island	NEC	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
NC Greensboro	SC	0.12	0.12	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
Winthrop	BSth	0.12	0.12	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
South Florida	BE	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Syracuse	BE	0.12	0.12	74.29	74.29	0.06	0.06
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.12	0.12	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Campbell	BSth	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Liberty	BSth	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.10	0.10	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.10	0.10	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
College of Charleston	SC	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.10	0.10	10.00	10.00	-0.08	-0.08
Siena	MAAC	0.10	0.10	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Penn St.	B10	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.10	0.10	80.65	80.65	0.06	0.06
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Vermont	AE	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Xavier	A10	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.10	0.10	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.10	0.10	29.63	29.63	-0.04	-0.04
Harvard	Ivy	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Yale	Ivy	0.10	0.10	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.10	0.10	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.09	0.09	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Boston University	AE	0.09	0.09	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Louisville	BE	0.09	0.09	85.29	85.29	0.07	0.07
North Carolina	ACC	0.09	0.09	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.09	0.09	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.09	0.09	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Kansas	B12	0.09	0.09	85.29	85.29	0.07	0.07
High Point	BSth	0.08	0.08	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.07	0.07	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.07	0.07	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Tulane	CUSA	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.07	0.07	13.79	13.79	-0.05	-0.05
West Virginia	B12	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.07	0.07	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.07	0.07	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Providence	BE	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.07	0.07	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Navy	Pat	0.07	0.07	23.33	23.33	-0.04	-0.04
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Texas	B12	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.07	0.07	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
UCLA	P12	0.07	0.07	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.07	0.07	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.05	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.05	6.90	6.90	-0.04	-0.04
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	7.14	7.14	-0.04	-0.04
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.05	81.25	81.25	0.03	0.03
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Maine	AE	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.03	0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.03	-0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Army	Pat	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Texas Christian	B12	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.31	42.31	-0.00	-0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.01	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.02	0.02	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.02	0.02	67.86	67.86	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	SC	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
North Texas	SB	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.02	0.02	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.02	0.02	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.02	0.02	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.02	0.02	93.75	93.75	0.02	0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
North Dakota	BSky	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.02	0.02	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Stanford	P12	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00