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Through games of Feb 9, 2016.


Delaware

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:275.2
Current RPI:262
Expected SOS:136
Current SOS:120
Current Record:5-18
Expected Record:7-22
Current Conf Record:0-12
Expected Conf Record:2-16
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-2
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:197
Expected OOC SOS:291



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-18202.30.03%
10-19221.50.45%
9-20239.84.84%
8-21257.217.70%
7-22272.834.88%
6-23286.531.30%
5-24297.910.79%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Delaware.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Delaware St. (349.1)MEACA56-62W100%0.0
11-20Iona (123.7)MAACA92-77L0%0.0
11-24Fairleigh Dickinson (222.6)NECH73-72W100%0.0
11-29Temple (85.7)AmerA69-50L0%0.0
12-1Bradley (304.2)MVCH70-47W100%0.0
12-3South Florida (243.5)AmerH67-58W100%0.0
12-6Columbia (125.6)IvyA82-69L0%0.0
12-12Marist (313.2)MAACA69-70W100%0.0
12-19Boston College (233.1)ACCA69-61L0%0.0
12-22Villanova (3.7)BEA78-48L0%0.0
12-29Buffalo (92.4)MACA99-79L0%0.0
12-31Hofstra (74.7)CAAA90-80L0%0.0
1-2James Madison (83.4)CAAH63-73L0%0.0
1-7Northeastern (148.9)CAAA88-56L0%0.0
1-9UNC Wilmington (61.3)CAAH67-85L0%0.0
1-14Towson (155.2)CAAH77-79L0%0.0
1-16Northeastern (148.9)CAAH60-69L0%0.0
1-21UNC Wilmington (61.3)CAAA79-70L0%0.0
1-23College of Charleston (94.2)CAAA59-58L0%0.0
1-28William & Mary (41.4)CAAH79-94L0%0.0
1-30Towson (155.2)CAAA101-97L0%0.0
2-4Elon (138.1)CAAA83-56L0%0.0
2-6William & Mary (41.4)CAAA90-64L0%0.0
2-11Drexel (265.2)CAAH0-057%1.9
2-13Hofstra (74.7)CAAH0-020%-9.0
2-18College of Charleston (94.2)CAAH0-024%-7.6
2-20James Madison (83.4)CAAA0-05%-17.4
2-25Drexel (265.2)CAAA0-033%-4.7
2-27Elon (138.1)CAAH0-036%-3.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Delaware's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Delaware's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Delaware.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DelawareCAA26.4926.4123.7123.50-13.93-13.99
TowsonCAA4.984.4861.9056.791.190.61
DrexelCAA0.884.4413.6415.33-0.64-3.08
James MadisonCAA2.804.4269.5767.501.101.55
NortheasternCAA5.094.4240.9142.82-0.93-0.63
ElonCAA2.894.4250.0048.090.00-0.17
HofstraCAA2.804.4263.6462.320.761.09
College of CharlestonCAA2.904.4161.9058.850.690.78
UNC WilmingtonCAA4.924.4173.6871.302.331.88
William & MaryCAA4.974.4168.4267.421.831.54
TempleAmer2.321.8761.9058.430.550.31
IonaMAAC2.271.8559.0959.320.410.34
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC2.361.8452.3853.840.110.14
VillanovaBE2.221.7886.9686.471.641.30
BradleyMVC2.271.7813.0413.35-1.68-1.31
MaristMAAC2.271.7822.7325.05-1.24-0.89
South FloridaAmer2.221.7820.8320.33-1.30-1.06
Delaware St.MEAC2.221.759.5212.67-1.80-1.31
Boston CollegeACC2.171.7226.0924.30-1.04-0.89
BuffaloMAC2.171.7254.5555.510.200.19
ColumbiaIvy2.171.7265.0063.980.650.48
East CarolinaAmer0.300.3043.4841.96-0.04-0.05
La SalleA100.240.2420.0020.46-0.14-0.14
Western MichiganMAC0.290.2131.8232.69-0.10-0.07
PennIvy0.140.2138.8937.63-0.03-0.05
CanisiusMAAC0.190.2144.0045.31-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.140.1880.0081.160.090.11
Sacred HeartNEC0.190.1834.7837.05-0.06-0.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.140.1840.0045.50-0.03-0.02
SienaMAAC0.140.1864.0064.140.040.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.240.1850.0049.090.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.190.1882.6178.910.130.10
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.240.1540.9143.29-0.04-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.090.1586.3679.110.070.09
FairfieldMAAC0.190.1554.1754.140.020.01
ManhattanMAAC0.150.1542.8642.05-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.240.1583.3378.470.160.08
Miami FLACC0.190.1582.6177.520.120.08
Stony BrookAE0.190.1581.8282.630.120.10
HarvardIvy0.190.1435.0038.50-0.06-0.03
CampbellBSth0.150.1328.5729.65-0.07-0.05
High PointBSth0.100.1355.0057.460.010.02
HamptonMEAC0.100.1259.0961.320.020.03
HowardMEAC0.200.1236.3638.92-0.06-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.200.1256.5262.790.030.03
RadfordBSth0.150.1250.0051.300.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.150.1252.1754.170.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.1265.2266.200.010.04
GeorgetownBE0.150.1256.0052.830.020.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.1214.2920.67-0.07-0.07
NiagaraMAAC0.140.1224.0024.55-0.07-0.06
QuinnipiacMAAC0.090.1236.3636.15-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.140.1240.0042.11-0.03-0.02
FIUCUSA0.090.1240.9145.30-0.02-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.140.1222.7327.22-0.08-0.05
George MasonA100.140.1233.3333.68-0.05-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.090.1252.1751.910.000.00
DukeACC0.140.1275.0071.800.070.05
VermontAE0.190.1252.0054.860.010.01
SyracuseACC0.090.1266.6762.530.030.03
AkronMAC0.140.1282.6181.140.090.07
TulsaAmer0.100.1265.2261.470.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.090.1150.0051.210.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.140.1134.7833.09-0.04-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.190.1172.0071.540.080.05
HoustonAmer0.140.1169.5766.580.050.04
MemphisAmer0.090.1160.8760.820.020.02
UCFAmer0.140.1150.0044.860.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.180.1173.9169.970.090.04
Central MichiganMAC0.150.0947.6249.35-0.01-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.150.0959.0959.420.030.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.0928.0030.73-0.04-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.050.0972.2274.700.020.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.0913.0413.55-0.07-0.07
Penn St.B100.050.0950.0046.740.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.140.0937.5043.38-0.04-0.01
BrownIvy0.100.0931.5831.07-0.04-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.100.0931.5831.75-0.04-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0929.1733.74-0.02-0.03
MichiganB100.100.0969.5766.220.040.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.140.0919.0525.89-0.09-0.04
MississippiSEC0.140.0962.5058.930.030.02
St. BonaventureA100.090.0971.4368.940.040.03
Florida St.ACC0.090.0969.5764.890.040.03
Kent St.MAC0.090.0965.2260.590.030.02
Boston UniversityPat0.130.0954.1755.600.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0973.9172.480.020.04
Michigan St.B100.140.0980.0081.600.080.05
ButlerBE0.090.0869.5767.150.040.03
North CarolinaACC0.140.0883.3378.390.090.05
SMUAmer0.140.0890.9186.110.110.06
TulaneAmer0.090.0833.3332.36-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.140.0875.0070.990.070.04
DaytonA100.100.0686.9682.300.080.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.0652.0050.250.000.00
LibertyBSth0.100.0634.7836.50-0.03-0.02
UMKCWAC0.100.0628.5732.73-0.04-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.100.0633.3334.95-0.03-0.02
BryantNEC0.050.0625.0026.39-0.02-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0660.0060.080.010.01
DavidsonA100.050.0660.0057.940.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.0647.8348.87-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.050.0665.2260.260.020.01
NavyPat0.050.0662.5062.370.010.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0631.8229.12-0.00-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.100.0650.0049.460.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0631.8230.06-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0663.6465.020.010.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0628.5731.30-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.100.0654.1754.580.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0628.5733.36-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0626.0929.17-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0634.7840.91-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.100.0642.1140.21-0.02-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0621.7423.40-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.090.0634.7837.17-0.03-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0645.8342.26-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0676.1972.280.020.03
UMBCAE0.090.0624.0026.33-0.05-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0627.2731.05-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.050.0673.6874.680.020.03
FordhamA100.090.0655.0052.190.010.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.0629.1733.12-0.04-0.02
TCUB120.090.0645.8339.34-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.100.0669.5767.500.040.02
AlbanyAE0.090.0676.0076.310.050.03
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0650.0049.830.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.090.0654.1751.880.010.00
NJITASun0.100.0654.1755.280.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0638.1037.68-0.02-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.090.0660.8757.190.020.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0650.0045.840.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.090.0647.6245.85-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0620.8323.21-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0640.0043.44-0.02-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0675.0076.250.020.03
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0654.1750.940.000.00
LipscombASun0.090.0625.0029.30-0.05-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0643.4842.66-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0639.1337.81-0.02-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0654.1755.020.010.01
OhioMAC0.000.0663.6461.420.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0639.1341.10-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.050.0654.5554.470.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0672.0070.540.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0647.8350.19-0.000.00
ToledoMAC0.090.0660.8762.040.020.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0679.1778.090.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0673.9176.720.040.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0658.3358.310.000.01
CreightonBE0.090.0664.0062.090.030.01
DePaulBE0.050.0633.3334.01-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.0652.1751.510.000.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0662.5056.050.010.01
Notre DameACC0.090.0670.8367.790.040.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0625.0023.40-0.02-0.03
XavierBE0.050.0687.5081.810.030.04
LafayettePat0.050.0321.7423.00-0.03-0.02
RutgersB100.050.0321.7420.37-0.03-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0331.8236.14-0.02-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0354.5558.160.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0325.0025.08-0.02-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0361.9059.540.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0382.6181.120.030.02
Holy CrossPat0.050.0339.1338.31-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0360.8758.300.010.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0330.0029.27-0.02-0.01
LehighPat0.050.0336.3639.78-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0322.7324.97-0.03-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0343.4850.65-0.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0325.0033.22-0.02-0.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0364.0062.060.010.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0361.9056.430.010.00
Rhode IslandA100.050.0358.3357.170.010.00
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0354.5550.110.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0345.4554.14-0.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.050.0345.8341.65-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0342.8650.39-0.010.00
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0381.8283.040.030.02
WoffordSC0.050.0343.4846.22-0.01-0.00
ArizonaP120.050.0379.1778.350.030.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.0320.8324.09-0.03-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0363.6462.590.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0373.9170.050.020.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0326.0927.79-0.02-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0340.9143.71-0.01-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0327.7834.43-0.02-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0347.3749.93-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0360.0057.610.010.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0368.1871.320.020.01
VCUA100.050.0373.9173.970.020.01
WisconsinB100.050.0360.8755.830.010.00
George WashingtonA100.040.0378.2674.410.020.01
KentuckySEC0.040.0375.0072.610.020.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0379.1776.070.030.01
MaineAE0.050.0333.3333.13-0.02-0.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0357.1453.990.010.00
OklahomaB120.050.0386.9682.650.030.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0372.7367.630.020.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0330.4331.20-0.02-0.01
StanfordP120.050.0350.0046.540.00-0.00
TroySB0.040.0323.8126.71-0.02-0.01
UABCUSA0.040.0382.6179.370.030.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0372.7371.650.020.01
UMass LowellAE0.050.0334.7835.65-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0352.0048.860.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0343.4840.46-0.00-0.01