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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Delaware

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:253.0
Current RPI:253
Expected SOS:174
Current SOS:174
Current Record:10-20
Expected Record:10-20
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-8
Current OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC RPI:333
Expected OOC SOS:204



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-20253.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Delaware.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Liberty (347.0)BSthA61-55L0%0.0
11-21Cal Poly (199.0)BWA78-60L0%0.0
11-23Cal St. Bakersfield (301.0)WACA70-52L0%0.0
11-25Stanford (59.0)P12A84-47L0%0.0
11-30Villanova (3.0)BEA78-47L0%0.0
12-3Army (235.0)PatH69-73L0%0.0
12-7Delaware St. (204.0)MEACH53-66L0%0.0
12-18Temple (34.0)AmerH62-82L0%0.0
12-20Fairleigh Dickinson (312.0)NECA76-74L0%0.0
12-22Robert Morris (171.0)NECA84-81L0%0.0
12-30St. Bonaventure (121.0)A10H82-77W100%0.0
1-3Northeastern (86.0)CAAH53-72L0%0.0
1-5Hofstra (174.0)CAAA71-58L0%0.0
1-8UNC Wilmington (145.0)CAAA74-73L0%0.0
1-10College of Charleston (298.0)CAAA58-64W100%0.0
1-14Towson (281.0)CAAH67-64W100%0.0
1-17Drexel (243.0)CAAH62-66L0%0.0
1-21William & Mary (93.0)CAAH84-80W100%0.0
1-24Elon (259.0)CAAA94-82L0%0.0
1-28James Madison (148.0)CAAA88-82L0%0.0
1-31College of Charleston (298.0)CAAH71-68W100%0.0
2-4Hofstra (174.0)CAAH69-79L0%0.0
2-7Northeastern (86.0)CAAA68-73W100%0.0
2-10James Madison (148.0)CAAH54-67L0%0.0
2-14William & Mary (93.0)CAAA70-73W100%0.0
2-19UNC Wilmington (145.0)CAAH70-59W100%0.0
2-21Elon (259.0)CAAH75-83L0%0.0
2-26Drexel (243.0)CAAA44-58W100%0.0
2-28Towson (281.0)CAAA60-65W100%0.0
3-7Northeastern (86.0)CAAN67-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Delaware's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Delaware's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Delaware.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DelawareCAA26.3826.3834.7234.72-8.06-8.06
NortheasternCAA6.006.0067.7467.742.132.13
William & MaryCAA4.414.4164.2964.291.261.26
UNC WilmingtonCAA4.384.3857.1457.140.630.63
College of CharlestonCAA4.354.3529.0329.03-1.82-1.82
HofstraCAA4.354.3558.0658.060.700.70
ElonCAA4.344.3437.9337.93-1.05-1.05
TowsonCAA4.344.3437.9337.93-1.05-1.05
James MadisonCAA4.294.2956.6756.670.570.57
DrexelCAA4.274.2737.0437.04-1.11-1.11
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.771.7722.2222.22-0.98-0.98
TempleAmer1.771.7768.7568.750.660.66
Cal PolyBW1.741.7438.4638.46-0.40-0.40
Robert MorrisNEC1.731.7356.2556.250.220.22
LibertyBSth1.721.7211.1111.11-1.34-1.34
Delaware St.MEAC1.691.6946.8846.88-0.11-0.11
VillanovaBE1.691.6993.9493.941.491.49
ArmyPat1.671.6746.4346.43-0.12-0.12
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.671.6734.4834.48-0.52-0.52
St. BonaventureA101.671.6760.0060.000.330.33
StanfordP121.671.6758.0658.060.270.27
CampbellBSth0.240.2424.1424.14-0.13-0.13
La SalleA100.240.2451.5251.520.010.01
RichmondA100.230.2359.3859.380.040.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.220.2266.6766.670.070.07
Saint Joseph'sA100.220.2241.9441.94-0.04-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.210.2116.1316.13-0.15-0.15
NavyPat0.210.2138.7138.71-0.05-0.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.190.1940.0040.00-0.04-0.04
WagnerNEC0.190.1931.0331.03-0.07-0.07
High PointBSth0.170.1767.8667.860.060.06
BryantNEC0.160.1651.6151.610.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.160.1622.5822.58-0.09-0.09
Sacred HeartNEC0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.150.1523.3323.33-0.08-0.08
USCP120.140.1437.5037.50-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.130.1387.8887.880.100.10
DavidsonA100.130.1376.6776.670.070.07
Boston UniversityPat0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
MassachusettsA100.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.130.1358.8258.820.020.02
HawaiiBW0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
LafayettePat0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.110.1128.1228.12-0.05-0.05
RadfordBSth0.110.1162.0762.070.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.110.1177.4277.420.060.06
CaliforniaP120.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
ColgatePat0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Miami FLACC0.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
HowardMEAC0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
ColoradoP120.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
AmericanPat0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
IonaMAAC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
MaristMAAC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.05-0.05
OhioMAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
BucknellPat0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
LehighPat0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
WoffordSC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
North CarolinaACC0.080.0868.5768.570.030.03
DaytonA100.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0844.4444.44-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
WashingtonP120.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
George MasonA100.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
DePaulBE0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
HarvardIvy0.070.0774.0774.070.040.04
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
MarquetteBE0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
XavierBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.060.0679.3179.310.040.04
UC IrvineBW0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
WinthropBSth0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.060.0652.9452.940.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
FloridaSEC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
MinnesotaB100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
RiceCUSA0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
ArizonaP120.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
Arizona St.P120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
UCLAP120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
UtahP120.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
VirginiaACC0.050.0590.6290.620.040.04
Washington St.P120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
OregonP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
UNLVMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0575.8675.860.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
NJITind0.050.0556.0056.000.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0393.9493.940.030.03
IPFWSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
RutgersB100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
FordhamA100.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
TexasB120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
MichiganB100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00