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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Delaware

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:274.0
Current RPI:274
Expected SOS:134
Current SOS:134
Current Record:7-23
Expected Record:7-23
Current Conf Record:2-17
Expected Conf Record:2-17
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-2
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:184
Expected OOC SOS:265



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-23274.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Delaware.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Delaware St. (345.0)MEACA56-62W100%0.0
11-20Iona (77.0)MAACA92-77L0%0.0
11-24Fairleigh Dickinson (205.0)NECH73-72W100%0.0
11-29Temple (60.0)AmerA69-50L0%0.0
12-1Bradley (306.0)MVCH70-47W100%0.0
12-3South Florida (230.0)AmerH67-58W100%0.0
12-6Columbia (132.0)IvyA82-69L0%0.0
12-12Marist (318.0)MAACA69-70W100%0.0
12-19Boston College (250.0)ACCA69-61L0%0.0
12-22Villanova (4.0)BEA78-48L0%0.0
12-29Buffalo (90.0)MACA99-79L0%0.0
12-31Hofstra (54.0)CAAA90-80L0%0.0
1-2James Madison (103.0)CAAH63-73L0%0.0
1-7Northeastern (109.0)CAAA88-56L0%0.0
1-9UNC Wilmington (45.0)CAAH67-85L0%0.0
1-14Towson (150.0)CAAH77-79L0%0.0
1-16Northeastern (109.0)CAAH60-69L0%0.0
1-21UNC Wilmington (45.0)CAAA79-70L0%0.0
1-23College of Charleston (135.0)CAAA59-58L0%0.0
1-28William & Mary (67.0)CAAH79-94L0%0.0
1-30Towson (150.0)CAAA101-97L0%0.0
2-4Elon (160.0)CAAA83-56L0%0.0
2-6William & Mary (67.0)CAAA90-64L0%0.0
2-11Drexel (247.0)CAAH69-60W100%0.0
2-13Hofstra (54.0)CAAH66-77L0%0.0
2-18College of Charleston (135.0)CAAH62-59W100%0.0
2-20James Madison (103.0)CAAA75-50L0%0.0
2-25Drexel (247.0)CAAA74-64L0%0.0
2-27Elon (160.0)CAAH59-77L0%0.0
3-4College of Charleston (135.0)CAAN67-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Delaware's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Delaware's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Delaware.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DelawareCAA26.4226.4222.6622.66-14.45-14.45
College of CharlestonCAA5.935.9351.8551.850.220.22
UNC WilmingtonCAA4.454.4575.0075.002.232.23
HofstraCAA4.444.4470.0070.001.781.78
DrexelCAA4.404.4017.8617.86-2.83-2.83
NortheasternCAA4.384.3850.0050.000.000.00
TowsonCAA4.374.3757.1457.140.620.62
William & MaryCAA4.374.3759.2659.260.810.81
James MadisonCAA4.334.3362.0762.071.041.04
ElonCAA4.324.3242.8642.86-0.62-0.62
TempleAmer1.821.8264.5264.520.530.53
IonaMAAC1.781.7867.7467.740.630.63
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.771.7756.6756.670.240.24
South FloridaAmer1.741.7425.0025.00-0.87-0.87
BradleyMVC1.721.7213.3313.33-1.26-1.26
VillanovaBE1.721.7284.8584.851.201.20
MaristMAAC1.721.7224.1424.14-0.89-0.89
Delaware St.MEAC1.691.6917.2417.24-1.11-1.11
Boston CollegeACC1.671.6719.3519.35-1.02-1.02
BuffaloMAC1.671.6756.2556.250.210.21
ColumbiaIvy1.671.6764.2964.290.480.48
East CarolinaAmer0.320.3237.5037.50-0.08-0.08
La SalleA100.210.2126.6726.67-0.10-0.10
CanisiusMAAC0.210.2142.4242.42-0.03-0.03
PennIvy0.190.1937.0437.04-0.05-0.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.190.1942.4242.42-0.03-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.190.1979.4179.410.110.11
Western MichiganMAC0.190.1936.6736.67-0.05-0.05
SienaMAAC0.190.1963.6463.640.050.05
ManhattanMAAC0.160.1641.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.160.1678.1278.120.090.09
Sacred HeartNEC0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.160.1648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.160.1679.4179.410.090.09
CampbellBSth0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
HarvardIvy0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.130.1378.7978.790.080.08
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.130.1380.0080.000.080.08
South CarolinaSEC0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
GeorgetownBE0.130.1345.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
AkronMAC0.130.1375.7675.760.070.07
Seton HallBE0.130.1375.7675.760.060.06
HowardMEAC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
High PointBSth0.110.1164.2964.290.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
UNC AshevilleBSth0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.110.1162.8662.860.030.03
FIUCUSA0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.110.1121.8821.88-0.06-0.06
QuinnipiacMAAC0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
RiderMAAC0.110.1139.3939.39-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
DukeACC0.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1022.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Florida St.ACC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
TulsaAmer0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
HoustonAmer0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
MemphisAmer0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
UCFAmer0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
BrownIvy0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.080.0877.7877.780.050.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0857.6957.690.010.01
DavidsonA100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
LSUSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
NavyPat0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
The CitadelSC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Penn St.B100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Michigan St.B100.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
North CarolinaACC0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
SMUAmer0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
TulaneAmer0.080.0835.2935.29-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
ButlerBE0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
CornellIvy0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
LibertyBSth0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
UMBCAE0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
TCUB120.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
UtahP120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
BryantNEC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
AlbanyAE0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
CreightonBE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
DePaulBE0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
XavierBE0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
BucknellPat0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
LehighPat0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
LafayettePat0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
MaineAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
TroySB0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
VCUA100.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
OklahomaB120.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
StanfordP120.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00