Delaware

Conference:	CAA
Expected RPI:	183.1
Current RPI:	176
Expected SOS:	199
Current SOS:	170
Current Record:	11-12
Expected Record:	15-14
Current Conf Record:	7-6
Expected Conf Record:	10-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	1.80%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-4
Current OOC Record:	4-6
Expected OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC RPI:	242
Expected OOC SOS:	268

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-12	140.3	2.28%
16-13	158.0	18.64%
15-14	177.4	38.53%
14-15	196.5	28.92%
13-16	214.6	9.95%
12-17	232.0	1.61%
11-18	247.8	0.06%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Delaware.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Radford (335.2)	BSth	A	58-54	L	0%	0.0
11-18	Villanova (98.5)	BE	A	79-69	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Cornell (178.3)	Ivy	H	72-64	W	100%	0.0
11-26	Lafayette (210.2)	Pat	H	81-78	W	100%	0.0
11-30	Boston University (175.2)	AE	A	73-67	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Drexel (79.2)	CAA	H	71-60	W	100%	0.0
12-7	Pennsylvania (113.9)	Ivy	A	69-60	L	0%	0.0
12-10	Delaware St. (279.9)	MEAC	A	42-58	W	100%	0.0
12-19	La Salle (69.1)	A10	H	70-66	W	100%	0.0
12-22	Howard (313.9)	MEAC	A	88-83	L	0%	0.0
12-30	Temple (24.4)	A10	H	63-66	L	0%	0.0
1-2	NC Wilmington (207.8)	CAA	A	80-75	L	0%	0.0
1-4	Hofstra (239.2)	CAA	H	67-66	W	100%	0.0
1-7	William & Mary (304.7)	CAA	A	64-75	W	100%	0.0
1-11	Old Dominion (126.1)	CAA	H	66-68	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Virginia Commonwealth (77.2)	CAA	H	55-68	L	0%	0.0
1-18	George Mason (94.6)	CAA	A	89-63	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Georgia St. (125.1)	CAA	H	77-74	W	100%	0.0
1-23	Towson (304.8)	CAA	H	62-43	W	100%	0.0
1-25	Northeastern (164.6)	CAA	A	62-61	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Drexel (79.2)	CAA	A	71-55	L	0%	0.0
2-1	George Mason (94.6)	CAA	H	65-60	W	100%	0.0
2-4	James Madison (251.6)	CAA	A	80-85	W	100%	0.0
2-8	NC Wilmington (207.8)	CAA	H	0-0		72%	6.5
2-11	Georgia St. (125.1)	CAA	A	0-0		16%	-11.0
2-14	Hofstra (239.2)	CAA	A	0-0		43%	-1.9
2-18	Hampton (307.2)	MEAC	H	0-0		85%	11.4
2-22	Towson (304.8)	CAA	A	0-0		87%	12.6
2-25	Northeastern (164.6)	CAA	H	0-0		65%	4.2

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Delaware's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Delaware's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Delaware.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Delaware	CAA	26.26	26.24	48.39	51.63	-0.85	0.85
Northeastern	CAA	2.89	4.24	45.45	47.16	-0.26	-0.24
Hofstra	CAA	2.84	4.22	33.33	35.87	-0.95	-1.19
George Mason	CAA	4.93	4.19	78.26	74.06	2.79	2.02
Towson	CAA	2.93	4.19	4.17	5.19	-2.69	-3.75
Drexel	CAA	4.89	4.19	81.82	80.11	3.11	2.52
Georgia St.	CAA	2.85	4.16	69.57	71.66	1.11	1.80
NC Wilmington	CAA	2.80	4.15	36.36	34.05	-0.76	-1.33
James Madison	CAA	2.89	2.63	41.67	41.52	-0.48	-0.45
William & Mary	CAA	2.85	2.59	13.04	13.91	-2.11	-1.87
Old Dominion	CAA	2.85	2.55	58.33	56.90	0.47	0.35
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	2.76	2.55	79.17	77.33	1.61	1.39
La Salle	A10	2.55	2.04	73.91	71.11	1.22	0.86
Pennsylvania	Ivy	2.47	1.93	52.38	55.40	0.12	0.21
Boston University	AE	2.42	1.93	45.83	50.27	-0.20	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.19	1.91	36.36	39.30	-0.05	-0.41
Howard	MEAC	2.33	1.90	14.29	19.34	-1.66	-1.17
Delaware St.	MEAC	2.22	1.84	37.50	41.44	-0.56	-0.32
Temple	A10	2.32	1.84	76.19	74.20	1.21	0.89
Villanova	BE	2.36	1.84	42.86	44.22	-0.34	-0.21
Cornell	Ivy	2.27	1.81	38.89	43.04	-0.50	-0.25
Lafayette	Pat	2.27	1.78	45.45	44.48	-0.21	-0.20
Radford	BSth	2.26	1.78	4.55	10.00	-2.06	-1.42
Rhode Island	A10	0.36	0.28	20.83	20.60	-0.21	-0.17
Princeton	Ivy	0.29	0.27	47.37	52.87	-0.02	0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.28	0.26	27.27	27.21	-0.13	-0.12
Manhattan	MAAC	0.22	0.25	68.00	69.07	0.08	0.10
Binghamton	AE	0.28	0.23	0.00	4.02	-0.28	-0.21
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.33	0.23	62.50	62.49	0.08	0.06
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.20	0.21	68.18	69.68	0.07	0.08
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.09	0.21	42.11	49.81	-0.01	-0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.28	0.20	73.91	75.00	0.13	0.10
Massachusetts	A10	0.14	0.20	73.91	68.58	0.07	0.07
Vermont	AE	0.22	0.20	60.00	62.49	0.04	0.05
American	Pat	0.20	0.18	65.22	63.79	0.06	0.05
Brown	Ivy	0.14	0.18	27.27	23.80	-0.06	-0.09
George Washington	A10	0.20	0.17	34.78	32.08	-0.06	-0.06
Rider	MAAC	0.28	0.17	37.50	38.52	-0.07	-0.04
Richmond	A10	0.18	0.17	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.18	0.17	36.36	39.72	-0.05	-0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.22	0.17	81.82	76.80	0.14	0.09
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.18	0.16	20.00	19.96	-0.11	-0.09
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.00	0.15	25.00	37.58	-0.00	-0.04
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.09	0.15	10.00	14.93	-0.08	-0.11
Maryland	ACC	0.20	0.15	59.09	50.82	0.04	0.00
Columbia	Ivy	0.21	0.15	55.00	54.80	0.02	0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.10	0.15	90.48	87.91	0.08	0.11
Stony Brook	AE	0.14	0.15	66.67	68.05	0.05	0.05
Wagner	NEC	0.20	0.15	82.61	84.57	0.13	0.10
Albany	AE	0.19	0.14	60.00	60.42	0.04	0.03
Long Island	NEC	0.18	0.14	70.83	71.05	0.08	0.06
Oregon St.	P12	0.14	0.14	63.64	63.16	0.04	0.04
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.09	0.14	81.82	80.43	0.06	0.09
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.14	0.14	13.64	16.35	-0.10	-0.09
Lehigh	Pat	0.15	0.12	73.91	74.91	0.07	0.06
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.12	14.29	17.17	-0.04	-0.08
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.12	72.22	63.19	0.02	0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.14	0.12	24.00	24.86	-0.07	-0.06
St. John's	BE	0.14	0.12	43.48	40.28	-0.02	-0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.19	0.12	34.78	34.61	-0.06	-0.04
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.14	0.12	56.52	55.95	0.02	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.14	0.12	60.87	60.96	0.03	0.03
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.14	0.12	45.00	44.15	-0.01	-0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.09	0.12	30.43	29.50	-0.04	-0.05
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.18	0.12	21.74	22.76	-0.10	-0.06
Monmouth	NEC	0.18	0.11	28.00	28.91	-0.08	-0.05
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.11	40.91	34.50	-0.01	-0.04
Florida International	SB	0.13	0.11	33.33	37.16	-0.04	-0.03
South Florida	BE	0.14	0.11	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.14	0.11	68.00	70.03	0.05	0.04
Duquesne	A10	0.13	0.11	59.09	56.35	0.02	0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.04	0.11	35.00	38.58	-0.01	-0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.09	38.10	42.78	-0.02	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.09	19.05	22.37	-0.04	-0.05
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.11	0.09	38.89	43.93	-0.03	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.09	34.78	38.77	-0.01	-0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.11	0.09	70.83	64.42	0.05	0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.15	0.09	41.67	38.67	-0.03	-0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.09	0.09	56.00	55.65	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.06	0.09	60.00	59.06	0.01	0.02
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.09	31.82	32.75	-0.02	-0.03
Toledo	MAC	0.10	0.09	38.10	40.81	-0.02	-0.02
Army	Pat	0.09	0.09	40.91	41.72	-0.02	-0.01
Davidson	SC	0.10	0.09	76.19	76.76	0.05	0.05
Cincinnati	BE	0.10	0.09	69.57	65.47	0.04	0.03
Kansas	B12	0.09	0.09	78.26	78.39	0.05	0.05
Charlotte	A10	0.14	0.09	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.09	54.55	57.69	0.00	0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.13	0.09	54.55	54.30	0.01	0.01
Missouri	B12	0.14	0.09	91.30	87.18	0.11	0.06
St. Louis	A10	0.10	0.09	77.27	77.67	0.05	0.05
Pittsburgh	BE	0.09	0.08	60.87	58.16	0.02	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.09	0.08	79.17	80.10	0.05	0.05
Hartford	AE	0.09	0.08	17.39	20.97	-0.06	-0.05
NC Greensboro	SC	0.09	0.08	34.78	33.46	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.11	0.06	33.33	37.25	-0.04	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.11	0.06	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.06	0.06	65.22	62.65	0.02	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.11	0.06	39.13	42.12	-0.02	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.11	0.06	68.42	66.45	0.04	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.10	0.06	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.06	80.95	77.38	0.03	0.03
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.06	55.00	60.33	0.00	0.01
Furman	SC	0.05	0.06	47.62	48.83	-0.00	-0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.06	40.91	42.05	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.06	62.50	62.06	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.06	42.86	43.45	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.06	59.09	59.72	0.01	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.09	0.06	9.52	13.19	-0.08	-0.04
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.06	68.18	67.64	0.02	0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.06	40.91	43.66	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.06	34.78	32.06	-0.01	-0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.06	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.06	44.00	45.89	-0.01	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.09	0.06	95.83	92.57	0.08	0.05
Marist	MAAC	0.10	0.06	34.78	33.43	-0.03	-0.02
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.06	40.00	41.30	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.10	0.06	79.17	75.98	0.06	0.03
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.06	41.18	42.61	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.09	0.06	37.50	41.54	-0.02	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.06	21.74	21.70	-0.03	-0.03
Rutgers	BE	0.00	0.06	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
Samford	SC	0.05	0.06	33.33	35.26	-0.02	-0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.00	0.06	57.14	60.75	0.00	0.01
Washington	P12	0.05	0.06	69.57	66.54	0.02	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.10	0.06	86.36	83.09	0.07	0.04
Seton Hall	BE	0.09	0.06	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.02
Texas	B12	0.09	0.06	60.87	61.37	0.02	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.06	65.22	63.74	0.01	0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.09	0.06	58.33	59.98	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.00	0.06	61.90	67.23	0.00	0.02
Maine	AE	0.04	0.06	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.04	0.06	62.50	61.50	0.01	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.00	0.06	45.45	45.55	-0.00	-0.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.09	0.06	34.78	34.48	-0.03	-0.02
Belmont	ASun	0.04	0.06	69.57	73.28	0.02	0.03
Michigan	B10	0.04	0.06	72.73	66.81	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.06	0.03	45.45	41.20	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.03	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.03	72.73	64.43	0.03	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.03	75.00	75.78	0.02	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.03	72.73	68.28	0.02	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.05	0.03	72.22	71.97	0.02	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.03	8.70	12.13	-0.04	-0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.03	33.33	38.38	-0.02	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.87	0.02	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	28.57	34.20	-0.02	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.00	0.03	68.18	63.99	0.00	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.00
Longwood	ind	0.00	0.03	30.00	27.84	-0.00	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.03	78.26	72.66	0.03	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.03	30.00	34.15	-0.02	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.00	0.03	56.52	50.27	0.00	0.00
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.03	65.22	60.58	0.02	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.03	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.03	28.57	26.30	-0.02	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.00	0.03	26.32	29.71	-0.00	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.01	0.05	0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.03	42.86	39.66	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	65.17	0.02	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	40.91	42.96	-0.01	-0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	82.61	80.42	0.03	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.04	0.03	68.18	67.91	0.02	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.04	0.03	68.18	69.10	0.02	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.04	0.03	30.43	26.44	-0.02	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.04	0.03	17.39	19.81	-0.03	-0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	45.70	-0.00	-0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.04	0.03	71.43	66.60	0.02	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.00	0.03	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
East Carolina	CUSA	0.04	0.03	44.44	41.71	-0.00	-0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.04	0.03	52.38	52.86	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.04	0.03	71.43	69.05	0.02	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.00	0.03	77.27	73.45	0.00	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.00	0.03	54.17	57.20	0.00	0.00
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.04	0.03	56.52	57.15	0.01	0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.04	0.03	31.82	31.31	-0.02	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.04	0.03	9.52	11.44	-0.04	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.04	0.03	40.91	39.82	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.79	0.00	0.00