live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Delaware

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:235.0
Current RPI:235
Expected SOS:169
Current SOS:169
Current Record:11-20
Expected Record:11-20
Current Conf Record:6-14
Expected Conf Record:6-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-3
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:214
Expected OOC SOS:296



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-20235.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Delaware.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Bradley (220.0)MVCA49-63W100%0.0
11-15La Salle (133.0)A10A74-68L0%0.0
11-18Miami OH (302.0)MACA66-68W100%0.0
11-19Northern Kentucky (87.0)HorzN53-74L0%0.0
11-20Austin Peay (261.0)OVCN76-75L0%0.0
12-2Delaware St. (332.0)MEACH64-49W100%0.0
12-11Yale (128.0)IvyA81-63L0%0.0
12-17Seton Hall (43.0)BEA81-68L0%0.0
12-20Marist (276.0)MAACH59-56W100%0.0
12-22South Florida (316.0)AmerA81-53L0%0.0
12-28Iona (89.0)MAACH63-54W100%0.0
12-31Hofstra (196.0)CAAH56-58L0%0.0
1-2College of Charleston (64.0)CAAH56-65L0%0.0
1-5Northeastern (136.0)CAAA90-54L0%0.0
1-7UNC Wilmington (27.0)CAAH81-91L0%0.0
1-12Towson (88.0)CAAA83-56L0%0.0
1-14Drexel (308.0)CAAA76-60L0%0.0
1-19Northeastern (136.0)CAAH69-62W100%0.0
1-21Towson (88.0)CAAH58-75L0%0.0
1-26William & Mary (110.0)CAAA82-58L0%0.0
1-28James Madison (255.0)CAAH66-61W100%0.0
2-2Hofstra (196.0)CAAA73-65L0%0.0
2-4UNC Wilmington (27.0)CAAA108-80L0%0.0
2-9Elon (161.0)CAAH76-74W100%0.0
2-11James Madison (255.0)CAAA57-58W100%0.0
2-16Drexel (308.0)CAAH68-67W100%0.0
2-18William & Mary (110.0)CAAH64-85L0%0.0
2-23College of Charleston (64.0)CAAA78-65L0%0.0
2-25Elon (161.0)CAAA81-59L0%0.0
3-3Hofstra (196.0)CAAN76-81W100%0.0
3-4UNC Wilmington (27.0)CAAN91-82L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Delaware's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Delaware's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Delaware.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DelawareCAA26.4826.4835.3435.34-7.76-7.76
UNC WilmingtonCAA5.835.8382.7682.763.823.82
HofstraCAA5.745.7442.8642.86-0.82-0.82
College of CharlestonCAA4.344.3470.9770.971.821.82
TowsonCAA4.284.2856.6756.670.570.57
William & MaryCAA4.284.2848.1548.15-0.16-0.16
James MadisonCAA4.264.2630.0030.00-1.70-1.70
ElonCAA4.234.2353.5753.570.300.30
DrexelCAA4.234.2324.1424.14-2.19-2.19
NortheasternCAA4.214.2148.2848.28-0.15-0.15
IonaMAAC1.711.7166.6766.670.570.57
BradleyMVC1.691.6938.7138.71-0.38-0.38
Northern KentuckyHorz1.671.6767.7467.740.590.59
Miami OHMAC1.671.6731.0331.03-0.63-0.63
South FloridaAmer1.671.6720.6920.69-0.98-0.98
Austin PeayOVC1.661.6629.6329.63-0.68-0.68
La SalleA101.661.6648.2848.28-0.06-0.06
MaristMAAC1.661.6625.8125.81-0.80-0.80
Delaware St.MEAC1.611.6127.5927.59-0.72-0.72
Seton HallBE1.611.6164.5264.520.470.47
YaleIvy1.611.6159.2659.260.300.30
RiderMAAC0.200.2054.5554.550.020.02
SienaMAAC0.200.2050.0050.000.000.00
VermontAE0.180.1884.8584.850.130.13
St. BonaventureA100.180.1862.5062.500.050.05
Stony BrookAE0.180.1858.0658.060.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.180.1848.3948.39-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.180.1845.4545.45-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.180.1831.2531.25-0.07-0.07
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.180.1859.3859.380.030.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.180.1832.2632.26-0.06-0.06
ColumbiaIvy0.160.1638.4638.46-0.04-0.04
Old DominionCUSA0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
EvansvilleMVC0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
VillanovaBE0.150.1591.1891.180.120.12
MonmouthMAAC0.150.1581.8281.820.100.10
NiagaraMAAC0.150.1530.3030.30-0.06-0.06
HarvardIvy0.140.1461.5461.540.030.03
PennIvy0.140.1446.4346.43-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.130.1377.1477.140.070.07
Rhode IslandA100.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
Northern IllinoisMAC0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
RadfordBSth0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
UMBCAE0.130.1357.1457.140.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
NevadaMWC0.120.1282.3582.350.080.08
CornellIvy0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
TempleAmer0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1144.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.110.1161.7661.760.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
Boston UniversityPat0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
DavidsonA100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
ToledoMAC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
OaklandHorz0.100.1073.3373.330.050.05
DrakeMVC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.090.0978.5778.570.050.05
Fort WayneSum0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
BrownIvy0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0840.7440.74-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.080.0828.1228.12-0.04-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
North TexasCUSA0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
KentuckySEC0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
South DakotaSum0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
OhioMAC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
RichmondA100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
St. John'sBE0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
MarquetteBE0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0829.4129.41-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
DaytonA100.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
IndianaB100.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
LehighPat0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
AlbanyAE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
FIUCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.04-0.04
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.053.333.33-0.05-0.05
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
High PointBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MaineAE0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
DePaulBE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0377.7877.780.020.02
BryantNEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
LipscombASun0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
WashingtonP120.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
StanfordP120.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
NJITASun0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0218.5218.52-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00