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Through games of Nov 21, 2014.


Delaware

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:269.3
Current RPI:340
Expected SOS:203
Current SOS:332
Current Record:0-2
Expected Record:10-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-8
Current OOC Record:0-2
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:295
Expected OOC SOS:232



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-11118.50.06%
17-12133.70.19%
16-13153.10.55%
15-14172.61.48%
14-15190.93.07%
13-16211.26.08%
12-17231.111.00%
11-18250.914.65%
10-19268.517.01%
9-20286.016.05%
8-21301.013.50%
7-22313.38.20%
6-23323.44.87%
5-24332.92.20%
4-25337.50.75%
3-26341.80.28%
2-27346.00.04%
1-28351.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Delaware.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Liberty (279.6)BSthA61-55L0%0.0
11-21Cal Poly (200.5)BWA78-60L0%0.0
11-23Cal St. Bakersfield (298.9)WACA0-045%-1.5
11-25Stanford (36.8)P12A0-04%-21.2
11-30Villanova (53.5)BEA0-05%-20.1
12-3Army (157.6)PatH0-044%-1.9
12-7Delaware St. (249.0)MEACH0-063%4.0
12-18Temple (84.0)AmerH0-025%-8.1
12-20Fairleigh Dickinson (290.8)NECA0-048%-0.6
12-22Robert Morris (278.5)NECA0-044%-1.7
12-30St. Bonaventure (157.3)A10H0-035%-4.5
1-3Northeastern (71.6)CAAH0-026%-7.8
1-5Hofstra (145.0)CAAA0-018%-11.0
1-8UNC Wilmington (220.1)CAAA0-034%-5.1
1-10College of Charleston (135.0)CAAA0-015%-12.6
1-14Towson (216.7)CAAH0-055%1.6
1-17Drexel (256.6)CAAH0-056%1.8
1-21William & Mary (181.5)CAAH0-049%-0.4
1-24Elon (244.0)CAAA0-035%-4.7
1-28James Madison (240.3)CAAA0-032%-5.6
1-31College of Charleston (135.0)CAAH0-033%-5.4
2-4Hofstra (145.0)CAAH0-037%-3.8
2-7Northeastern (71.6)CAAA0-011%-15.0
2-11James Madison (240.3)CAAH0-055%1.6
2-14William & Mary (181.5)CAAA0-026%-7.5
2-19UNC Wilmington (220.1)CAAH0-057%2.1
2-21Elon (244.0)CAAH0-058%2.5
2-25Drexel (256.6)CAAA0-033%-5.4
2-28Towson (216.7)CAAA0-032%-5.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Delaware's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Delaware's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Delaware.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DelawareCAA37.5026.400.0034.08-37.50-8.41
TowsonCAA0.004.4666.6745.110.00-0.44
NortheasternCAA0.004.44100.0068.850.001.67
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.004.4350.0039.060.00-0.97
HofstraCAA0.004.4166.6763.210.001.16
James MadisonCAA0.004.4166.6746.610.00-0.30
College of CharlestonCAA0.004.4025.0055.84-0.000.51
ElonCAA0.004.3950.0039.280.00-0.94
DrexelCAA0.004.390.0032.56-0.00-1.53
William & MaryCAA0.004.3950.0044.270.00-0.50
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.001.8450.0036.240.00-0.51
TempleAmer0.001.8466.6760.240.000.38
LibertyBSth25.001.790.0038.68-25.00-0.40
Robert MorrisNEC0.001.7933.3337.82-0.00-0.43
Cal PolyBW25.001.780.0035.77-25.00-0.51
Delaware St.MEAC0.001.7533.3343.74-0.00-0.22
VillanovaBE0.001.75100.0066.400.000.58
ArmyPat0.001.72100.0057.870.000.27
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.001.720.0032.80-0.00-0.59
St. BonaventureA100.001.7250.0049.880.00-0.00
StanfordP120.001.72100.0067.300.000.60
CampbellBSth0.000.270.0030.14-0.00-0.11
La SalleA100.000.26100.0055.910.000.03
RichmondA100.000.2450.0062.660.000.06
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.230.0035.33-0.00-0.07
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.210.0054.88-0.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.2133.3333.43-0.00-0.07
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.210.0043.82-0.00-0.03
High PointBSth0.000.18100.0058.330.000.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1850.0036.850.00-0.05
WagnerNEC0.000.180.0043.90-0.00-0.02
NavyPat0.000.180.0032.22-0.00-0.06
East CarolinaAmer0.000.170.0034.69-0.00-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.170.0031.68-0.00-0.06
USCP120.000.1550.0026.710.00-0.07
BryantNEC0.000.1550.0054.540.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.15100.0048.380.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.150.0037.45-0.00-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.000.14100.0075.400.000.07
GeorgetownBE0.000.14100.0064.920.000.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.140.0048.22-0.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.1375.0054.690.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.13100.0077.160.000.07
CaliforniaP120.000.1275.0073.240.000.06
BuffaloMAC0.000.1266.6759.850.000.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.120.0028.95-0.00-0.05
LafayettePat0.000.1266.6762.890.000.03
LongwoodBSth0.000.1250.0021.230.00-0.07
RadfordBSth0.000.1233.3344.86-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.12100.0073.200.000.06
DukeACC0.000.12100.0086.380.000.09
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.120.0032.86-0.00-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.000.120.0051.62-0.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1233.3357.87-0.000.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.12100.0070.040.000.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1225.0029.11-0.00-0.05
ColgatePat0.000.120.0036.43-0.00-0.03
MassachusettsA100.000.12100.0063.880.000.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.120.0031.91-0.00-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.000.11100.0044.620.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.100.0027.23-0.00-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.000.0950.0033.640.00-0.03
ColoradoP120.000.09100.0068.420.000.03
HowardMEAC0.000.090.0034.15-0.00-0.03
IonaMAAC0.000.0966.6766.940.000.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.09100.0066.050.000.03
WoffordSC0.000.0966.6774.980.000.05
MaristMAAC0.000.090.0043.44-0.00-0.01
VMISC0.000.0950.0043.730.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0950.0054.660.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0950.0025.820.00-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0966.6766.420.000.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.09100.0070.600.000.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0950.0047.150.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0966.6764.270.000.03
BucknellPat0.000.0933.3346.82-0.00-0.01
LehighPat0.000.090.0035.69-0.00-0.03
DuquesneA100.000.090.0051.78-0.000.00
St. John'sBE0.000.09100.0052.280.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.090.0046.41-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.09100.0037.800.00-0.02
PennIvy0.000.090.0025.28-0.00-0.04
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0950.0060.970.000.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0933.3335.37-0.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.070.0038.57-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0733.3344.98-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.07100.0058.280.000.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.070.0062.16-0.000.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0733.3352.91-0.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.070.0033.43-0.00-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.07100.0043.140.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0750.0062.910.000.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.070.0054.32-0.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0750.0049.490.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0750.0056.600.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.060.0032.99-0.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0633.3349.73-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0666.6766.600.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0675.0045.210.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0650.0031.730.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0650.0052.770.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0034.57-0.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0027.18-0.00-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.060.0034.26-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0650.0049.560.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.06100.0060.630.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.060.0027.11-0.00-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0079.370.000.04
Loyola MDPat0.000.0666.6738.520.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0650.0063.730.000.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0666.6750.370.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0633.3365.68-0.000.02
NorthwesternB100.000.06100.0043.710.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0633.3347.72-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.06100.0029.380.00-0.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0650.0059.030.000.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0650.0044.430.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0625.0033.23-0.00-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.060.0039.15-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0023.20-0.00-0.03
South DakotaSum0.000.060.0036.84-0.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0068.970.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.06100.0058.420.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0666.6769.310.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0633.3359.35-0.000.01
OregonP120.000.06100.0070.690.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.06100.0053.060.000.00
UCLAP120.000.06100.0061.850.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.06100.0056.460.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0633.3327.05-0.00-0.03
NJITind0.000.0633.3328.81-0.00-0.02
VCUA100.000.06100.0074.770.000.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.06100.0055.900.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0054.180.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0064.850.000.02
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0055.810.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0055.45-0.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0633.3334.47-0.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0650.0056.300.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0650.0066.890.000.02
LSUSEC0.000.0666.6756.820.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0650.0054.250.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0650.0059.350.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0062.680.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0057.560.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0633.3367.72-0.000.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0666.6764.990.000.02
The CitadelSC0.000.060.0027.74-0.00-0.03
TulaneAmer0.000.0650.0033.930.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0666.6752.000.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.06100.0045.610.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.060.0035.60-0.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0068.580.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0055.380.000.01
XavierBE0.000.06100.0076.430.000.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.060.0015.68-0.00-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.000.060.0038.12-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0024.25-0.00-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0059.140.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.06100.0073.590.000.03
Stony BrookAE0.000.0633.3363.09-0.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0666.6752.470.000.00
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0076.260.000.03
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0086.950.000.02
IPFWSum0.000.0350.0065.390.000.01
NevadaMWC6.250.0350.0052.120.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.030.0049.10-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.03100.0061.810.000.01
Virginia TechACC6.250.03100.0041.376.25-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0045.330.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.030.0028.50-0.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.030.0016.80-0.00-0.02
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0069.430.000.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.03100.0051.300.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0350.0036.270.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.030.0026.04-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.03100.0082.150.000.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0333.3349.18-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.03100.0064.330.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0074.210.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.030.0025.34-0.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.03100.0069.310.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.03100.0057.010.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.030.0054.47-0.000.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0333.3344.93-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0033.39-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0350.0062.440.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0016.72-0.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.030.0034.73-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0325.0022.09-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6777.370.000.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3328.03-0.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0350.0028.860.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0069.29-0.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.03100.0046.320.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.03100.0050.080.000.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6751.250.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.03100.0066.070.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0333.3336.04-0.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0333.3358.87-0.000.01
TexasB120.000.03100.0084.130.000.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0333.3363.82-0.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0366.6746.160.00-0.00
UtahP120.000.0366.6770.360.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0350.0041.490.00-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.030.0036.14-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.03100.0065.750.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0065.630.000.01
KansasB120.000.0350.0060.200.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0366.6768.330.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.030.0065.36-0.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0375.0070.210.000.01