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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Creighton

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:100.0
Current RPI:100
Expected SOS:84
Current SOS:84
Current Record:18-14
Expected Record:18-14
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:162
Expected OOC SOS:300



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-14100.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Creighton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Texas Southern (190.0)SWACH93-70W100%0.0
11-17UTSA (347.0)CUSAH103-78W100%0.0
11-19Indiana (24.0)B10A86-65L0%0.0
11-23Rutgers (294.0)B10N75-85W100%0.0
11-25Massachusetts (171.0)A10N97-76W100%0.0
11-28Western Illinois (262.0)SumH97-67W100%0.0
12-2Arizona St. (99.0)P12H77-79L0%0.0
12-5Loyola Chicago (239.0)MVCA68-65L0%0.0
12-9Nebraska (165.0)B10H83-67W100%0.0
12-12IUPUI (189.0)SumH90-65W100%0.0
12-19Oklahoma (6.0)B12A87-74L0%0.0
12-21North Texas (295.0)CUSAH105-82W100%0.0
12-28Coppin St. (326.0)MEACH102-77W100%0.0
12-31St. John's (246.0)BEA70-80W100%0.0
1-2Villanova (4.0)BEH71-85L0%0.0
1-5Georgetown (106.0)BEH79-66W100%0.0
1-9Seton Hall (19.0)BEA67-82W100%0.0
1-12Providence (40.0)BEH48-50L0%0.0
1-17DePaul (198.0)BEA80-91W100%0.0
1-23Butler (57.0)BEH72-64W100%0.0
1-26Georgetown (106.0)BEA74-73L0%0.0
1-30Seton Hall (19.0)BEH65-75L0%0.0
2-3Villanova (4.0)BEA83-58L0%0.0
2-6DePaul (198.0)BEH88-66W100%0.0
2-9Xavier (7.0)BEH70-56W100%0.0
2-13Marquette (110.0)BEA62-65W100%0.0
2-16Butler (57.0)BEA88-75L0%0.0
2-24Marquette (110.0)BEH61-66L0%0.0
2-28St. John's (246.0)BEH100-59W100%0.0
3-2Providence (40.0)BEA70-66L0%0.0
3-5Xavier (7.0)BEA98-93L0%0.0
3-10Seton Hall (19.0)BEN81-73L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Creighton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Creighton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Creighton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CreightonBE26.3226.3253.6253.621.911.91
Seton HallBE5.585.5876.6776.672.982.98
VillanovaBE4.164.1684.3884.382.862.86
MarquetteBE4.104.1061.2961.290.930.93
ProvidenceBE4.074.0767.7467.741.441.44
XavierBE4.064.0686.6786.672.982.98
GeorgetownBE4.044.0445.1645.16-0.39-0.39
St. John'sBE4.044.0424.1424.14-2.09-2.09
ButlerBE4.014.0168.9768.971.521.52
DePaulBE3.993.9931.0331.03-1.51-1.51
RutgersB101.781.7820.0020.00-1.07-1.07
NebraskaB101.731.7348.4848.48-0.05-0.05
IUPUISum1.731.7340.0040.00-0.35-0.35
IndianaB101.681.6877.4277.420.920.92
UTSACUSA1.641.6413.7913.79-1.19-1.19
Western IllinoisSum1.641.6430.4330.43-0.64-0.64
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.621.6243.3343.33-0.22-0.22
Arizona St.P121.611.6145.1645.16-0.16-0.16
MassachusettsA101.611.6145.1645.16-0.16-0.16
OklahomaB121.611.6177.4277.420.880.88
North TexasCUSA1.591.5934.4834.48-0.49-0.49
Texas SouthernSWAC1.591.5958.0658.060.260.26
Coppin St.MEAC1.561.5625.0025.00-0.78-0.78
WisconsinB100.270.2762.5062.500.070.07
IowaB100.200.2067.7467.740.070.07
PurdueB100.170.1776.4776.470.090.09
George WashingtonA100.170.1769.7069.700.070.07
IllinoisB100.170.1744.1244.12-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.150.1512.9012.90-0.11-0.11
Wichita St.MVC0.150.1574.1974.190.070.07
NorthwesternB100.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
Penn St.B100.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
MichiganB100.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
StanfordP120.150.1548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.150.1585.2985.290.100.10
Rhode IslandA100.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
MarylandB100.140.1475.0075.000.070.07
North Dakota St.Sum0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
IPFWSum0.140.1470.9770.970.060.06
Oral RobertsSum0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.130.133.453.45-0.12-0.12
HowardMEAC0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
FordhamA100.130.1355.1755.170.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.130.1342.4242.42-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
MinnesotaB100.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
SyracuseACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
WagnerNEC0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
DenverSum0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
South DakotaSum0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.120.1277.4277.420.060.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.110.1110.7110.71-0.08-0.08
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1022.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.1070.0070.000.040.04
Southern MissCUSA0.100.1025.9325.93-0.05-0.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
Southern UtahBSky0.100.1014.2914.29-0.07-0.07
DrakeMVC0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Iowa St.B120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
ClemsonACC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1022.8622.86-0.05-0.05
Ohio St.B100.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
NJITASun0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
USCP120.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Washington St.P120.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
TroySB0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
TempleAmer0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
ArizonaP120.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.1014.2914.29-0.07-0.07
HarvardIvy0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
MississippiSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
La SalleA100.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0979.4179.410.060.06
BrownIvy0.090.0925.9325.93-0.05-0.05
BryantNEC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0862.8662.860.020.02
RiceCUSA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
CaliforniaP120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Kansas St.B120.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
TexasB120.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0756.0056.000.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
TennesseeSEC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
DaytonA100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
SouthernSWAC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
West VirginiaB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
AkronMAC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0724.2424.24-0.04-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
BelmontOVC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
DukeACC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
LSUSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.070.0724.2424.24-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
UABCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
UMBCAE0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
VMISC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0582.1482.140.030.03
TCUB120.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
VCUA100.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
HartfordAE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
PennIvy0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0272.4172.410.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
DavidsonA100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
DuquesneA100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
George MasonA100.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
KentuckySEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
RichmondA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
UCFAmer0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01