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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Creighton

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:151.0
Current RPI:151
Expected SOS:61
Current SOS:61
Current Record:14-19
Expected Record:14-19
Current Conf Record:5-15
Expected Conf Record:5-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-1
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:117
Expected OOC SOS:190



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-19151.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Creighton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Central Arkansas (349.0)SlndH104-77W100%0.0
11-16Chicago St. (333.0)WACH84-66W100%0.0
11-19Oklahoma (18.0)B12H65-63W100%0.0
11-23North Carolina Central (128.0)MEACH65-45W100%0.0
11-25Eastern Illinois (173.0)OVCH75-53W100%0.0
11-28Mississippi (60.0)SECN75-68L0%0.0
11-29Middle Tennessee (138.0)CUSAN57-47W100%0.0
12-3Tulsa (45.0)AmerA77-64L0%0.0
12-7Nebraska (158.0)B10A55-65W100%0.0
12-9South Dakota (213.0)SumH91-88W100%0.0
12-13Saint Mary's (68.0)WCCH67-71L0%0.0
12-19Texas Pan American (334.0)WACH75-60W100%0.0
12-21North Texas (224.0)CUSAA62-58L0%0.0
12-31Providence (22.0)BEA65-53L0%0.0
1-3Georgetown (25.0)BEA76-61L0%0.0
1-7DePaul (197.0)BEH60-70L0%0.0
1-10Seton Hall (97.0)BEH67-68L0%0.0
1-14Marquette (147.0)BEA53-52L0%0.0
1-17Providence (22.0)BEH65-74L0%0.0
1-21Butler (31.0)BEA64-61L0%0.0
1-25Villanova (3.0)BEA71-50L0%0.0
1-28St. John's (44.0)BEH77-74W100%0.0
1-31Georgetown (25.0)BEH40-67L0%0.0
2-4Xavier (30.0)BEA72-79W100%0.0
2-7St. John's (44.0)BEA84-66L0%0.0
2-14Marquette (147.0)BEH77-70W100%0.0
2-16Butler (31.0)BEH56-58L0%0.0
2-24DePaul (197.0)BEA62-75W100%0.0
2-28Seton Hall (97.0)BEA67-66L0%0.0
3-3Villanova (3.0)BEH72-76L0%0.0
3-7Xavier (30.0)BEH73-74L0%0.0
3-11DePaul (197.0)BEN63-78W100%0.0
3-12Georgetown (25.0)BEN60-55L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Creighton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Creighton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Creighton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CreightonBE26.4126.4138.4138.41-6.12-6.12
GeorgetownBE5.435.4364.2964.291.551.55
DePaulBE5.375.3737.9337.93-1.30-1.30
XavierBE4.054.0562.5062.501.011.01
VillanovaBE4.024.0293.7593.753.523.52
ButlerBE4.024.0266.6766.671.341.34
ProvidenceBE3.983.9864.5264.521.151.15
MarquetteBE3.973.9740.0040.00-0.79-0.79
St. John'sBE3.953.9565.5265.521.231.23
Seton HallBE3.923.9248.2848.28-0.14-0.14
Chicago St.WAC1.641.6417.8617.86-1.05-1.05
OklahomaB121.591.5970.9770.970.670.67
Texas Pan AmericanWAC1.571.5725.9325.93-0.75-0.75
Saint Mary'sWCC1.561.5667.8667.860.560.56
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.541.5453.5753.570.110.11
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.541.5454.5554.550.140.14
NebraskaB101.541.5443.3343.33-0.21-0.21
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.541.5478.5778.570.880.88
Central ArkansasSlnd1.541.547.147.14-1.32-1.32
TulsaAmer1.541.5470.0070.000.620.62
North TexasCUSA1.541.5439.2939.29-0.33-0.33
MississippiSEC1.521.5261.2961.290.340.34
South DakotaSum1.521.5250.0050.000.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.200.2039.2939.29-0.04-0.04
WisconsinB100.190.1991.1891.180.160.16
CincinnatiAmer0.190.1968.7568.750.070.07
Tennessee MartinOVC0.170.1757.1457.140.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.170.1743.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.150.1523.3323.33-0.08-0.08
IndianaB100.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
NJITind0.140.1456.0056.000.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
SeattleWAC0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.130.1336.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.130.1332.1432.14-0.05-0.05
UTSACUSA0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
FloridaSEC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
George WashingtonA100.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
Illinois St.MVC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
IUPUISum0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.120.1283.3383.330.080.08
TennesseeSEC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
LehighPat0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
AuburnSEC0.110.1141.1841.18-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.1038.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.1072.4172.410.050.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.100.1093.9493.940.090.09
RiceCUSA0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
MinnesotaB100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
TulaneAmer0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.1086.6786.670.070.07
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1077.4277.420.050.05
San DiegoWCC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
MaineAE0.100.1010.0010.00-0.08-0.08
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
StanfordP120.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
IllinoisB100.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
SyracuseACC0.090.0958.0658.060.020.02
TempleAmer0.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
UABCUSA0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
MissouriSEC0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0826.9226.92-0.04-0.04
PortlandWCC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0821.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0855.5655.560.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
DenverSum0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0758.3358.330.010.01
MarylandB100.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
MemphisAmer0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Arizona St.P120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.070.0768.5768.570.030.03
Texas TechB120.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0758.8258.820.010.01
IPFWSum0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
RutgersB100.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
TowsonCAA0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0787.1087.100.050.05
SouthernSWAC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
Michigan St.B100.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
NorthwesternB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
ColoradoP120.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Iowa St.B120.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Oregon St.P120.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
TCUB120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
FIUCUSA0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
KentuckySEC0.070.07100.00100.000.070.07
MichiganB100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0542.3142.31-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.056.906.90-0.05-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0518.7518.75-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
PacificWCC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
TroySB0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
NevadaMWC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
AlbanyAE0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Miami FLACC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
NavyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
YaleIvy0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
BucknellPat0.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
DelawareCAA0.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.040.0465.5265.520.010.01
La SalleA100.040.0451.5251.520.000.00
PennIvy0.040.0432.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.040.0474.2974.290.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0362.9662.960.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
MontanaBSky0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
UCFAmer0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
WoffordSC0.020.0281.2581.250.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
George MasonA100.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
UCLAP120.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
WashingtonP120.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01