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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Creighton

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:25.4
Current RPI:1
Expected SOS:56
Current SOS:3
Current Record:7-0
Expected Record:23-7
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:7-0
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:19
Expected OOC SOS:200



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
30-01.00.01%
29-13.90.12%
28-24.90.57%
27-37.62.37%
26-410.66.53%
25-514.113.08%
24-618.018.23%
23-722.919.66%
22-828.716.69%
21-936.312.20%
20-1046.66.37%
19-1157.02.61%
18-1269.81.13%
17-1384.80.34%
16-1495.20.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Creighton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11UMKC (146.9)WACH89-82W100%0.0
11-15Wisconsin (29.2)B10H79-67W100%0.0
11-18Washington St. (196.7)P12N103-77W100%0.0
11-20North Carolina St. (109.3)ACCN112-94W100%0.0
11-21Mississippi (134.5)SECN86-77W100%0.0
11-26Loyola MD (218.3)PatH82-52W100%0.0
11-29Buffalo (138.0)MACH93-72W100%0.0
12-3Akron (74.5)MACH0-087%13.3
12-7Nebraska (94.1)B10A0-070%6.5
12-9Longwood (325.2)BSthH0-0100%33.4
12-17Oral Roberts (305.9)SumH0-099%28.6
12-20Arizona St. (165.8)P12A0-085%12.3
12-28Seton Hall (76.8)BEH0-079%9.6
12-31Villanova (7.4)BEH0-045%-1.4
1-4St. John's (167.9)BEA0-078%9.3
1-7Providence (75.1)BEA0-063%4.1
1-11Butler (14.7)BEH0-058%2.5
1-16Xavier (11.9)BEA0-037%-4.0
1-21Marquette (60.1)BEH0-069%5.9
1-25Georgetown (104.0)BEA0-064%4.3
1-28DePaul (206.1)BEH0-095%20.0
1-31Butler (14.7)BEA0-038%-3.7
2-4Xavier (11.9)BEH0-057%2.1
2-11DePaul (206.1)BEA0-088%13.8
2-15Seton Hall (76.8)BEA0-061%3.4
2-19Georgetown (104.0)BEH0-081%10.4
2-22Providence (75.1)BEH0-080%10.3
2-25Villanova (7.4)BEA0-026%-7.6
2-28St. John's (167.9)BEH0-090%15.5
3-4Marquette (60.1)BEA0-049%-0.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Creighton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Creighton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Creighton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CreightonBE28.8826.32100.0076.3528.8813.87
XavierBE0.714.24100.0076.300.712.23
GeorgetownBE0.454.2350.0048.930.00-0.09
MarquetteBE0.004.2371.4364.660.001.24
ProvidenceBE0.004.2171.4358.220.000.69
St. John'sBE0.004.2128.5735.16-0.00-1.25
VillanovaBE0.004.21100.0084.430.002.90
ButlerBE0.004.20100.0077.390.002.30
DePaulBE0.004.2080.0037.910.00-1.02
Seton HallBE0.004.2071.4356.270.000.53
WisconsinB107.141.8085.7176.305.100.95
BuffaloMAC7.141.7850.0052.730.000.10
AkronMAC0.001.7283.3371.860.000.75
Arizona St.P120.001.7257.1436.750.00-0.46
Washington St.P127.141.7260.0038.141.43-0.41
MississippiSEC7.141.7083.3347.544.76-0.08
NebraskaB100.001.6950.0044.110.00-0.20
Oral RobertsSum0.511.690.0019.98-0.51-1.02
LongwoodBSth0.001.6725.0025.60-0.00-0.81
Loyola MDPat7.141.6740.0041.99-1.43-0.27
North Carolina St.ACC7.141.6783.3352.254.760.08
UMKCWAC7.141.6783.3358.124.760.27
NorthwesternB100.000.2071.4366.220.000.06
UtahP120.000.1975.0061.040.000.04
RutgersB100.000.1983.3344.770.00-0.02
Michigan St.B100.000.1750.0061.590.000.04
ArizonaP120.000.1785.7170.990.000.07
MichiganB100.000.1771.4366.530.000.06
Ohio St.B100.000.1685.7172.660.000.07
SyracuseACC0.450.1666.6770.140.150.06
Wake ForestACC0.000.1671.4352.370.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.510.1433.3343.64-0.17-0.02
AmericanPat0.000.1416.6735.65-0.00-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.450.140.0017.30-0.45-0.09
UCLAP120.000.14100.0083.550.000.09
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1416.6736.45-0.00-0.04
IowaB100.000.1442.8644.33-0.00-0.02
ColoradoP120.000.1471.4359.850.000.03
CaliforniaP120.000.1483.3363.610.000.04
IndianaB100.000.1483.3375.060.000.07
StanfordP120.000.1475.0059.100.000.03
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1457.1448.860.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.000.1485.7165.670.000.04
PurdueB100.000.1471.4374.450.000.07
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1340.0057.49-0.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.13100.0082.550.000.09
South DakotaSum0.510.1257.1447.220.07-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.1250.0052.330.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.1275.0067.660.000.04
IUPUISum0.000.1228.5747.72-0.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.1150.0051.820.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.1150.0033.010.00-0.04
OhioMAC0.000.1180.0068.320.000.04
MaineAE0.000.1116.6725.61-0.00-0.06
LafayettePat0.000.1133.3331.87-0.00-0.04
LehighPat0.000.1133.3367.01-0.000.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1150.0061.810.000.03
MontanaBSky1.620.1114.2947.44-1.15-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.110.0018.22-0.00-0.07
USCP120.000.11100.0075.380.000.06
WashingtonP120.000.1157.1452.630.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.1185.7155.550.000.01
BaylorB120.000.11100.0074.460.000.05
Notre DameACC0.600.11100.0075.010.600.06
ClemsonACC0.000.1166.6753.460.000.01
MarylandB100.000.1185.7156.490.000.01
OregonP120.000.1171.4366.730.000.04
Penn St.B100.000.1162.5043.960.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.450.1114.2929.15-0.32-0.05
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1185.7180.960.000.07
HowardMEAC0.000.110.0038.26-0.00-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.000.11100.0080.780.000.07
TempleAmer0.000.1171.4363.570.000.03
VermontAE0.000.1162.5071.630.000.05
La SalleA100.000.1160.0051.780.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.1150.0045.920.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA101.020.1150.0046.780.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0920.0048.38-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0933.3336.31-0.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0933.3348.73-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0914.2937.52-0.00-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.600.0960.0058.950.120.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0940.0043.86-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0950.0053.530.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0971.4368.100.000.03
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0966.6756.360.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0950.0055.850.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.110.0966.6754.420.370.01
DrakeMVC0.510.090.0021.30-0.51-0.05
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0975.0064.960.000.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.510.0950.0038.430.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0825.0039.28-0.00-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.0842.8640.94-0.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.600.0883.3357.990.400.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0871.4343.020.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0833.3338.20-0.00-0.02
IllinoisB100.510.0857.1442.660.07-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0885.7162.920.000.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0887.5075.320.000.04
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0866.6754.380.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0850.0027.250.00-0.04
MassachusettsA100.510.0883.3358.080.340.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0885.7159.740.000.02
North CarolinaACC0.450.0885.7180.010.320.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.510.0816.6729.36-0.34-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.450.0825.0034.47-0.22-0.03
TulaneAmer0.000.0814.2926.81-0.00-0.04
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0033.54-0.00-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0625.0038.72-0.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.0650.0051.260.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0640.0050.71-0.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0633.3327.13-0.00-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0650.0064.840.000.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0660.0070.500.000.03
ArmyPat0.000.0633.3345.58-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0650.0059.670.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.0620.0041.31-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0633.3341.11-0.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0666.6770.930.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0650.0056.260.000.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.0642.8647.69-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.000.0628.5743.62-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0620.0042.63-0.00-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0625.0024.28-0.00-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0022.69-0.00-0.03
KansasB120.000.0685.7176.170.000.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0642.8645.30-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.060.0021.30-0.00-0.03
ToledoMAC0.000.0642.8650.36-0.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.600.0683.3362.080.400.01
Green BayHorz0.510.0633.3348.71-0.17-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.510.0642.8661.90-0.070.01
OklahomaB120.000.0683.3351.920.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.510.0675.0054.320.260.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.510.0650.0045.410.00-0.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0628.5723.76-0.00-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0640.0037.65-0.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0642.8642.47-0.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0640.0040.65-0.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0620.0034.22-0.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0660.0039.610.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0650.0050.940.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0038.51-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0650.0050.290.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0633.3346.81-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0660.0043.970.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3333.15-0.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0038.35-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0616.6740.71-0.00-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0616.6734.31-0.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0657.1440.590.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0616.6718.96-0.00-0.03
WyomingMWC0.000.0660.0048.590.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0585.7168.390.000.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0583.3355.200.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0516.6731.91-0.00-0.02
BrownIvy0.000.0550.0042.420.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0516.6743.29-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0562.5056.500.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0533.3338.76-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0516.6736.35-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0566.6751.460.000.00
ElonCAA0.000.0583.3358.030.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0557.1443.680.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0566.6739.720.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0528.5734.18-0.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.05100.0086.250.000.04
Miami FLACC0.000.0571.4365.740.000.02
New HampshireAE0.000.0550.0057.480.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0583.3356.560.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0566.6765.810.000.02
PennIvy0.000.0540.0057.97-0.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0571.4370.330.000.02
UCFAmer0.000.0583.3374.620.000.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0566.6758.420.000.01
VCUA100.000.0585.7178.150.000.03
WagnerNEC0.000.0533.3353.85-0.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0023.47-0.00-0.02
George MasonA100.000.0357.1442.940.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.030.0028.15-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0056.71-0.000.00
Texas TechB120.000.0385.7163.780.000.01
DuquesneA100.600.0337.5034.65-0.15-0.01
Little RockSB0.000.0360.0057.900.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0312.5048.98-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0383.3378.430.000.02
RichmondA100.000.0357.1448.600.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.600.0316.6733.82-0.40-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0350.0054.490.000.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0360.0039.200.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0325.0040.81-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0383.3380.550.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0042.710.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0333.3341.52-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0366.6772.440.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0091.060.000.02
IdahoBSky0.000.0340.0050.88-0.000.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0385.7155.890.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0340.0067.95-0.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0383.3359.600.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0350.0053.050.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.600.0350.0062.460.000.01
NevadaMWC0.710.0375.0070.470.360.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0325.0030.93-0.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.710.0316.6727.03-0.48-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.600.0340.0037.44-0.12-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0337.5036.24-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0325.0056.92-0.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6770.740.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0350.0054.690.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.710.0320.0054.94-0.430.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0342.8637.60-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0366.6756.020.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0320.0036.00-0.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0383.3362.840.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0350.0029.280.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0333.3335.92-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0383.3368.880.000.01
DukeACC0.000.0387.5078.680.000.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0023.46-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0385.7162.410.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0314.2929.81-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0385.7175.950.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0371.4349.770.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0020.01-0.00-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.510.0385.7173.010.360.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0325.0040.37-0.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.450.0316.6732.62-0.30-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0047.990.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0375.0074.990.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0383.3361.150.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0383.3370.360.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.100.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0340.0027.05-0.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0371.4349.590.00-0.00