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Through games of Jan 25, 2015.


Creighton

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:165.8
Current RPI:138
Expected SOS:51
Current SOS:58
Current Record:9-12
Expected Record:12-19
Current Conf Record:0-8
Expected Conf Record:3-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-1
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:117
Expected OOC SOS:187



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1370.00.01%
17-1483.00.12%
16-1599.60.67%
15-16114.73.08%
14-17130.69.96%
13-18147.920.86%
12-19166.228.01%
11-20184.023.98%
10-21200.511.14%
9-22214.42.16%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Creighton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Central Arkansas (349.2)SlndH104-77W100%0.0
11-16Chicago St. (340.0)WACH84-66W100%0.0
11-19Oklahoma (26.6)B12H65-63W100%0.0
11-23North Carolina Central (111.9)MEACH65-45W100%0.0
11-25Eastern Illinois (151.2)OVCH75-53W100%0.0
11-28Mississippi (52.3)SECN75-68L0%0.0
11-29Middle Tennessee (147.8)CUSAN57-47W100%0.0
12-3Tulsa (43.7)AmerA77-64L0%0.0
12-7Nebraska (97.1)B10A55-65W100%0.0
12-9South Dakota (218.8)SumH91-88W100%0.0
12-13Saint Mary's (50.7)WCCH67-71L0%0.0
12-19Texas Pan American (319.9)WACH75-60W100%0.0
12-21North Texas (269.3)CUSAA62-58L0%0.0
12-31Providence (30.7)BEA65-53L0%0.0
1-3Georgetown (21.7)BEA76-61L0%0.0
1-7DePaul (158.4)BEH60-70L0%0.0
1-10Seton Hall (51.8)BEH67-68L0%0.0
1-14Marquette (119.8)BEA53-52L0%0.0
1-17Providence (30.7)BEH65-74L0%0.0
1-21Butler (25.9)BEA64-61L0%0.0
1-25Villanova (9.0)BEA71-50L0%0.0
1-28St. John's (56.9)BEH0-040%-2.9
1-31Georgetown (21.7)BEH0-032%-5.0
2-4Xavier (31.2)BEA0-013%-12.6
2-7St. John's (56.9)BEA0-019%-9.7
2-14Marquette (119.8)BEH0-053%0.9
2-16Butler (25.9)BEH0-026%-7.0
2-24DePaul (158.4)BEA0-044%-1.6
2-28Seton Hall (51.8)BEA0-022%-8.6
3-3Villanova (9.0)BEH0-019%-9.7
3-7Xavier (31.2)BEH0-030%-5.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Creighton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Creighton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Creighton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CreightonBE26.4426.3237.9333.51-6.38-8.68
ButlerBE2.874.1670.0069.361.151.61
GeorgetownBE2.854.1272.2266.961.271.40
DePaulBE2.694.1050.0040.660.00-0.77
St. John'sBE0.484.1066.6759.760.160.80
ProvidenceBE4.944.0872.2263.392.201.09
VillanovaBE2.624.0889.4783.972.072.77
XavierBE0.544.0865.0062.050.160.98
MarquetteBE2.684.0750.0044.760.00-0.43
Seton HallBE2.614.0766.6758.940.870.73
Chicago St.WAC2.501.725.8811.98-2.21-1.31
OklahomaB122.501.6966.6766.620.830.56
Texas Pan AmericanWAC2.451.6729.4129.22-1.01-0.69
Saint Mary'sWCC2.381.6777.7873.051.320.77
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.451.6461.1158.360.540.27
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.441.6475.0080.541.221.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.381.6461.1158.070.530.26
NebraskaB102.451.6466.6753.210.820.11
Central ArkansasSlnd2.441.640.004.01-2.44-1.51
North TexasCUSA2.381.6431.2530.82-0.89-0.63
TulsaAmer2.441.6476.4771.301.290.70
MississippiSEC2.381.6161.1162.380.530.40
South DakotaSum2.381.6147.3749.46-0.13-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.390.2238.8940.92-0.09-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.320.2273.6872.910.150.10
Tennessee MartinOVC0.180.1958.8257.920.030.03
WisconsinB100.250.1990.0087.200.200.14
Northern ArizonaBSky0.260.1642.1147.25-0.04-0.01
NJITind0.120.1652.3854.500.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1642.1151.87-0.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.1550.0062.020.000.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.190.1526.3236.35-0.09-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.130.1535.2938.26-0.04-0.03
UTSACUSA0.200.1443.7543.05-0.03-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.200.1442.1151.50-0.030.00
Murray St.OVC0.130.1478.9580.740.070.09
IUPUISum0.130.1438.1040.92-0.03-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.260.1466.6758.660.090.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.180.1425.0025.42-0.09-0.07
UTEPCUSA0.070.1463.1668.480.020.05
IndianaB100.180.1375.0068.440.090.05
AuburnSEC0.130.1350.0040.140.00-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.120.1366.6754.680.040.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.1247.3750.46-0.000.00
SeattleWAC0.130.1247.0649.60-0.01-0.00
UMKCWAC0.070.1231.5838.42-0.02-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.130.1138.8940.51-0.03-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.130.1168.7575.250.050.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.130.1120.0027.23-0.08-0.05
GonzagaWCC0.060.1195.0094.590.060.10
Western KentuckyCUSA0.130.1170.5967.500.050.04
Oral RobertsSum0.130.1147.3749.59-0.01-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.060.1145.0045.95-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.130.1184.2175.980.090.06
South FloridaAmer0.130.1131.5832.27-0.05-0.04
TulaneAmer0.000.1163.1653.860.000.01
BelmontOVC0.180.1163.1662.990.050.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.140.1181.2584.490.090.07
FloridaSEC0.130.1152.6353.800.010.01
TempleAmer0.130.1165.0062.180.040.03
MinnesotaB100.060.1160.0056.590.010.01
George WashingtonA100.120.1180.0071.470.070.05
GeorgiaSEC0.130.1172.2265.270.060.03
IllinoisB100.120.1161.9060.540.030.02
Illinois St.MVC0.120.1157.8959.510.020.02
MaineAE0.120.1110.0012.92-0.10-0.08
SyracuseACC0.060.1170.0058.860.020.02
MissouriSEC0.060.1033.3330.05-0.02-0.04
LehighPat0.120.1050.0052.040.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0935.2934.92-0.02-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.130.0927.7828.21-0.06-0.04
HoustonAmer0.130.0936.8435.27-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.140.0963.1661.650.040.02
Old DominionCUSA0.130.0878.9579.450.080.05
RiceCUSA0.070.0826.6730.46-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.120.0845.0047.58-0.01-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.140.0815.3818.24-0.10-0.05
MarylandB100.070.0885.7177.390.050.05
North DakotaBSky0.130.0825.0032.98-0.06-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.130.0850.0043.330.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.190.0833.3345.66-0.06-0.01
Arizona St.P120.130.0850.0052.260.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0842.8642.64-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.130.0873.6872.640.060.04
Southern MissCUSA0.130.0825.0022.90-0.07-0.04
Texas TechB120.070.0855.0041.150.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.060.0847.3749.78-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.060.0843.7540.69-0.01-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.130.0854.5565.340.010.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0835.7146.79-0.02-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0823.5344.31-0.03-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.120.0847.3744.59-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.0852.3857.310.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.130.0880.0076.050.080.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.120.0843.7538.89-0.01-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.130.0889.4787.900.100.06
ArkansasSEC0.130.0878.9572.070.080.04
Notre DameACC0.190.0890.4884.070.150.06
Michigan St.B100.130.0865.0063.900.040.02
Ohio St.B100.060.0876.1976.740.030.04
RutgersB100.130.0847.6237.42-0.01-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.120.0827.7829.90-0.05-0.03
StanfordP120.120.0873.6869.350.060.03
TCUB120.060.0873.6861.610.030.02
ChattanoogaSC0.120.0863.1662.140.030.02
Florida St.ACC0.180.0850.0044.180.00-0.01
MichiganB100.060.0857.8950.450.010.00
NorthwesternB100.060.0850.0043.390.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.120.0841.1838.63-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.180.0870.5968.890.070.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.0866.6760.600.000.02
KentuckySEC0.180.08100.0098.450.180.08
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0622.2232.05-0.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.004.38-0.00-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0615.7926.56-0.00-0.03
UC DavisBW0.130.0675.0066.550.060.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0617.6526.25-0.05-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0647.0649.55-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.0610.5315.27-0.11-0.04
LamarSlnd0.140.0640.0038.36-0.03-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.130.0633.3334.72-0.04-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.130.0635.0043.96-0.04-0.01
BYUWCC0.060.0665.0067.600.020.02
PacificWCC0.060.0638.8934.79-0.01-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.060.0657.8956.240.010.01
PortlandWCC0.060.0652.6349.030.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0640.0041.97-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0647.3741.08-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.130.065.2610.60-0.11-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.000.0616.6723.19-0.00-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.140.0637.5032.89-0.03-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.140.0633.3335.62-0.05-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0661.1160.380.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0635.2931.60-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.060.0635.2937.84-0.02-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0623.0839.13-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0616.6735.39-0.00-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0661.1160.510.010.01
RadfordBSth0.060.0661.1161.380.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0650.0054.930.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0678.9577.550.000.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0665.0068.140.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0655.0060.900.010.01
TowsonCAA0.060.0640.0037.70-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0631.2527.91-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.130.0556.2555.420.020.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.130.0568.7569.130.050.02
TroySB0.130.0531.2531.62-0.05-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0520.0029.58-0.04-0.02
BaylorB120.130.0577.7871.550.070.02
DukeACC0.000.0589.4783.700.000.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0533.3334.34-0.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.0525.0024.54-0.00-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0552.9455.320.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.060.0547.3742.83-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.060.0565.0063.290.020.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0577.7868.060.000.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0536.8438.57-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.060.0547.3751.57-0.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0547.3749.77-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.060.0525.0026.11-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0515.7923.13-0.00-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0547.6250.23-0.000.00
TexasB120.060.0573.6868.850.030.02
West VirginiaB120.060.0584.2174.910.040.03
Kansas St.B120.060.0560.0047.770.01-0.00
AlbanyAE0.120.0563.1665.030.030.02
BinghamtonAE0.120.055.0012.05-0.11-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.120.0550.0042.920.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.120.0541.1838.10-0.02-0.01
BucknellPat0.060.0550.0050.950.000.00
ColoradoP120.060.0552.6351.170.000.00
DelawareCAA0.060.0521.0522.39-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.060.0515.7917.73-0.04-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0561.1166.570.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0515.7918.67-0.04-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0525.0025.65-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.060.0552.6352.940.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.060.0536.8433.28-0.01-0.02
LSUSEC0.060.0578.9569.090.040.02
MassachusettsA100.120.0552.6353.060.010.00
Miami FLACC0.120.0573.6870.360.060.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0544.4434.87-0.00-0.02
NavyPat0.120.0531.5832.85-0.04-0.02
Oregon St.P120.060.0572.2262.200.030.01
PennIvy0.060.0533.3333.96-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0544.4439.84-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.120.0560.0065.770.020.02
VCUA100.060.0584.2180.700.040.03
YaleIvy0.120.0564.7164.090.040.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0361.5465.650.020.01
Ball St.MAC0.060.0337.5037.44-0.02-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0352.6355.500.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.035.5616.70-0.06-0.02
DuquesneA100.070.0329.4127.44-0.03-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0358.8258.900.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0352.9458.930.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.070.0342.1141.46-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.070.0337.5042.49-0.02-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0325.0038.10-0.04-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0335.0031.73-0.02-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.070.0372.2264.370.030.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0355.0061.950.010.01
Saint LouisA100.070.0344.4437.38-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0325.0029.95-0.04-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0342.1145.74-0.01-0.00
UtahP120.070.0383.3383.660.040.02
Boise St.MWC0.060.0366.6767.920.020.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0375.0070.930.030.01
Cal PolyBW0.060.0350.0050.370.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.070.0363.1666.540.020.01
Green BayHorz0.070.0378.9577.950.040.02
IonaMAAC0.070.0371.4374.800.030.01
NortheasternCAA0.060.0366.6767.030.020.01
OaklandHorz0.070.0333.3340.21-0.02-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0322.2237.82-0.04-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0340.0037.58-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.070.0357.8959.400.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.060.0352.9457.380.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0336.8441.41-0.02-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0344.4443.29-0.01-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0325.0028.09-0.03-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0330.0029.56-0.02-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0338.4633.68-0.02-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0347.0654.41-0.000.00
MontanaBSky0.060.0350.0053.220.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.060.0316.6720.01-0.04-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.070.0365.0063.000.020.01
UCFAmer0.070.0344.4441.15-0.01-0.00
UNLVMWC0.060.0352.6354.330.000.00
WoffordSC0.060.0373.6873.960.030.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0335.0034.24-0.02-0.01
AkronMAC0.060.0366.6762.700.020.01
George MasonA100.060.0329.4131.67-0.03-0.01
HawaiiBW0.060.0363.1657.380.020.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0338.8943.49-0.01-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.0365.0051.820.000.00
PurdueB100.000.0360.0056.840.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.060.0322.2226.65-0.03-0.01
UCLAP120.060.0355.0052.160.010.00
WashingtonP120.060.0373.6865.200.030.01
Weber St.BSky0.060.0335.2941.30-0.02-0.00
DaytonA100.060.0384.2179.090.040.02
OregonP120.060.0368.4259.840.020.01
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0352.9453.150.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0372.2263.460.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0355.5653.980.000.00