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Through games of Nov 23, 2014.


Creighton

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:65.7
Current RPI:111
Expected SOS:74
Current SOS:256
Current Record:4-0
Expected Record:19-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:4-0
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:56
Expected OOC SOS:207



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-34.00.02%
26-49.10.11%
25-512.10.39%
24-616.31.59%
23-722.43.77%
22-829.57.97%
21-937.412.03%
20-1048.815.20%
19-1161.417.29%
18-1274.715.44%
17-1390.812.23%
16-14108.67.61%
15-15125.63.46%
14-16143.31.99%
13-17160.10.67%
12-18176.40.10%
11-19205.70.11%
10-20215.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Creighton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Central Arkansas (332.2)SlndH104-77W100%0.0
11-16Chicago St. (279.4)WACH84-66W100%0.0
11-19Oklahoma (43.2)B12H65-63W100%0.0
11-23North Carolina Central (167.0)MEACH65-45W100%0.0
11-25Eastern Illinois (272.7)OVCH0-093%17.9
11-28Mississippi (84.9)SECN0-055%1.6
12-3Tulsa (110.4)AmerA0-053%0.8
12-7Nebraska (79.5)B10A0-039%-3.2
12-9South Dakota (260.5)SumH0-091%16.3
12-13Saint Mary's (37.5)WCCH0-057%2.2
12-19Texas Pan American (266.8)WACH0-096%21.2
12-21North Texas (220.9)CUSAA0-077%8.9
12-31Providence (21.2)BEA0-026%-7.7
1-3Georgetown (44.3)BEA0-035%-4.7
1-7DePaul (183.4)BEH0-085%12.2
1-10Seton Hall (49.9)BEH0-059%2.6
1-14Marquette (158.8)BEA0-056%1.9
1-17Providence (21.2)BEH0-048%-0.5
1-21Butler (80.7)BEA0-039%-3.2
1-25Villanova (75.9)BEA0-037%-3.9
1-28St. John's (116.5)BEH0-071%6.7
1-31Georgetown (44.3)BEH0-058%2.5
2-4Xavier (16.3)BEA0-023%-9.1
2-7St. John's (116.5)BEA0-048%-0.5
2-14Marquette (158.8)BEH0-078%9.1
2-16Butler (80.7)BEH0-063%4.0
2-24DePaul (183.4)BEA0-066%5.0
2-28Seton Hall (49.9)BEA0-035%-4.5
3-3Villanova (75.9)BEH0-061%3.3
3-7Xavier (16.3)BEH0-044%-1.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Creighton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Creighton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Creighton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CreightonBE34.9026.40100.0061.3934.906.01
DePaulBE0.004.28100.0037.000.00-1.11
St. John'sBE0.004.28100.0052.420.000.21
ProvidenceBE0.004.26100.0072.290.001.90
VillanovaBE0.004.26100.0063.770.001.17
ButlerBE0.004.25100.0061.010.000.94
Seton HallBE0.004.25100.0064.470.001.23
XavierBE0.004.25100.0076.150.002.23
MarquetteBE0.004.2533.3341.91-0.00-0.69
GeorgetownBE0.004.25100.0063.500.001.15
Chicago St.WAC12.501.790.0029.32-12.50-0.74
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.001.73100.0032.490.00-0.60
Saint Mary'sWCC0.001.72100.0073.240.000.80
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.001.700.0038.48-0.00-0.39
North Carolina CentralMEAC12.501.700.0072.09-12.500.75
Central ArkansasSlnd12.501.700.0022.17-12.50-0.94
OklahomaB1212.501.70100.0064.6912.500.50
TulsaAmer0.001.7066.6752.680.000.09
NebraskaB101.561.7066.6753.500.520.12
MississippiSEC0.001.6775.0055.290.000.18
North TexasCUSA0.001.6766.6740.460.00-0.32
South DakotaSum0.001.670.0037.07-0.00-0.43
Nebraska OmahaSum1.560.2466.6747.490.52-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.2150.0034.180.00-0.07
CincinnatiAmer0.000.18100.0058.720.000.03
NJITind0.000.1725.0025.81-0.00-0.08
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1525.0066.60-0.000.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1520.0035.47-0.00-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1566.6748.230.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.15100.0062.410.000.04
IUPUISum0.000.1550.0031.800.00-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.120.0040.51-0.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.1250.0070.910.000.05
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1275.0065.560.000.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1250.0050.460.000.00
KansasB120.000.1250.0062.480.000.03
SeattleWAC0.000.1225.0045.26-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.1225.0044.56-0.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.1250.0037.730.00-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC1.560.1233.3342.08-0.52-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.12100.0085.040.000.08
FloridaSEC0.000.1266.6768.430.000.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1250.0064.030.000.03
MinnesotaB100.000.1266.6762.360.000.03
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1233.3348.17-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.1266.6748.260.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.1266.6752.020.000.00
TulaneAmer0.000.1250.0035.380.00-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.120.0066.50-0.000.04
IllinoisB100.000.12100.0065.770.000.04
TempleAmer0.000.1250.0053.140.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.1266.6740.980.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.1266.6746.610.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1225.0056.01-0.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.1166.6776.480.000.06
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1125.0050.35-0.000.00
MaineAE0.000.110.0017.44-0.00-0.07
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1175.0056.300.000.01
LehighPat0.000.110.0032.42-0.00-0.04
SyracuseACC0.000.1175.0068.410.000.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.090.0033.03-0.00-0.03
MarylandB100.000.09100.0060.180.000.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.090.0031.79-0.00-0.03
North CarolinaACC3.120.09100.0071.353.120.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0950.0063.270.000.02
HoustonAmer0.000.09100.0065.000.000.03
North DakotaBSky0.000.090.0043.50-0.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0966.6774.140.000.04
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0966.6749.820.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.09100.0044.560.00-0.01
Arizona St.P123.120.09100.0056.763.120.01
Ohio St.B100.000.09100.0075.950.000.05
Oklahoma St.B120.000.09100.0053.290.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0966.6746.580.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0920.0028.32-0.00-0.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.09100.0051.850.000.00
TCUB120.000.09100.0054.380.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0933.3343.32-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0966.6763.860.000.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.090.0033.26-0.00-0.03
NorthwesternB100.000.09100.0041.850.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd2.080.090.0053.62-2.080.01
RutgersB100.000.0966.6737.040.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.080.090.0035.17-2.08-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.000.09100.0084.310.000.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.090.0033.50-0.00-0.03
StanfordP120.000.0975.0070.150.000.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.09100.0073.710.000.04
AlabamaSEC0.000.09100.0059.020.000.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0950.0042.760.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0825.0043.02-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0880.0073.060.000.04
Rhode IslandA100.000.08100.0058.810.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.08100.0088.080.000.06
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.070.0019.35-0.00-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.070.0021.84-0.00-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0750.0042.910.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0725.0038.29-0.00-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.06100.0043.690.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0633.3344.23-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0019.05-0.00-0.04
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0650.0052.770.000.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0633.3349.44-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0625.0043.58-0.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.060.0056.76-0.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0680.0059.220.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0620.0053.22-0.000.00
LamarSlnd0.000.060.0033.64-0.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0041.94-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.06100.0067.490.000.02
BYUWCC0.000.06100.0067.070.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0675.0070.770.000.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.060.0034.13-0.00-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.06100.0052.480.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0086.980.000.04
IowaB100.000.0650.0065.830.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.06100.0062.120.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0666.6750.120.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0633.3326.52-0.00-0.03
MemphisAmer0.000.060.0066.86-0.000.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0675.0070.900.000.02
PacificWCC0.000.0633.3333.24-0.00-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.06100.0050.740.000.00
PortlandWCC0.000.06100.0051.410.000.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0633.3328.24-0.00-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.000.06100.0061.520.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0650.0045.730.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0650.0069.230.000.02
TexasB120.000.06100.0081.510.000.04
UTEPCUSA0.000.06100.0070.060.000.02
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0071.890.000.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.060.0028.04-0.00-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0666.6749.380.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.060.0046.47-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.000.0666.6760.880.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.060.0024.98-0.00-0.03
DukeACC0.000.06100.0085.260.000.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0650.0039.620.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.06100.0072.270.000.03
FordhamA100.000.060.0023.10-0.00-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0650.0063.170.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0620.0034.58-0.00-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0666.6766.540.000.02
IPFWSum0.000.0650.0063.140.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0620.0026.97-0.00-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.060.0045.86-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.0650.0032.360.00-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.060.0043.51-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0633.3353.66-0.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0633.3338.76-0.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0633.3347.23-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0032.53-0.00-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0633.3323.98-0.00-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0650.0045.000.00-0.01
Oregon St.P120.000.06100.0048.750.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.060.0028.09-0.00-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0633.3349.87-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0633.3334.41-0.00-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0650.0055.730.000.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.060.0065.55-0.000.02
TroySB0.000.060.0044.81-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0625.0036.00-0.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.060.0020.55-0.00-0.03
La SalleA100.000.06100.0054.720.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0675.0058.200.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.06100.0046.960.00-0.00
PennIvy0.000.060.0025.85-0.00-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0650.0038.210.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.06100.0074.410.000.03
AlbanyAE0.000.0533.3363.61-0.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.050.0028.81-0.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0540.0038.78-0.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0525.0036.88-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0580.0061.870.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.05100.0079.170.000.03
NavyPat0.000.0520.0032.30-0.00-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0533.3365.28-0.000.02
YaleIvy0.000.0575.0069.430.000.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.48-0.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0350.0051.920.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0325.0052.16-0.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0038.12-0.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0325.0040.26-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0333.3346.72-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0033.67-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.030.0035.32-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0333.3348.37-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0064.500.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.030.0032.23-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0026.81-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0039.080.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.030.0063.27-0.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.03100.0053.680.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0375.0067.590.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0366.6757.190.000.00
UtahP120.000.0366.6769.560.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0375.0063.000.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.03100.0060.050.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0350.0035.550.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.03100.0043.590.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0035.81-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0320.0021.84-0.00-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.030.0058.69-0.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.030.0067.33-0.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0375.0054.060.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0375.0073.840.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.030.0048.44-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0380.0071.590.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0366.6752.830.000.00
MichiganB100.000.03100.0064.520.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0366.6771.100.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0350.0046.140.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.03100.0075.190.000.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0333.3340.10-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.030.0033.64-0.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0380.0044.310.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.030.0039.35-0.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.03100.0062.070.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0340.0050.84-0.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0350.0054.200.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0333.3362.70-0.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0333.3343.07-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0333.3367.24-0.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.03100.0047.030.00-0.00
UCLAP120.000.03100.0065.190.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0056.730.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.030.0051.68-0.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.030.0049.00-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0043.24-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0340.0042.16-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0340.0032.83-0.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0024.68-0.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0333.3351.73-0.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.030.0020.99-0.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0360.0056.390.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0051.200.000.00
WoffordSC0.000.0380.0077.570.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0340.0038.14-0.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0375.0072.870.000.01
OregonP120.000.03100.0069.430.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0340.0049.19-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0038.43-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0069.220.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0050.370.000.00