Creighton

Conference:	BE
Expected RPI:	44.0
Current RPI:	44
Expected SOS:	52
Current SOS:	52
Current Record:	20-11
Expected Record:	20-11
Current Conf Record:	10-9
Expected Conf Record:	10-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-0
Current OOC Record:	10-2
Expected OOC Record:	10-2
Expected OOC RPI:	64
Expected OOC SOS:	237

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
20-11	44.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Creighton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Yale (183.0)	Ivy	H	92-76	W	100%
11-12	Alcorn St. (348.0)	SWAC	H	109-72	W	100%
11-15	Northwestern (168.0)	B10	A	88-92	W	100%
11-20	UCLA (36.0)	P12	N	100-89	W	100%
11-21	Baylor (68.0)	B12	N	65-59	L	0%
11-25	SIU Edwardsville (287.0)	OVC	H	103-66	W	100%
12-1	Gonzaga (21.0)	WCC	A	91-74	L	0%
12-5	North Dakota (221.0)	BSky	H	111-68	W	100%
12-9	Nebraska (56.0)	B10	H	75-65	W	100%
12-15	Maryland Eastern Shore (346.0)	MEAC	H	87-36	W	100%
12-18	UT Arlington (108.0)	SB	H	90-81	W	100%
12-20	USC Upstate (344.0)	ASun	H	116-62	W	100%
12-28	Seton Hall (31.0)	BE	A	90-84	L	0%
12-31	Providence (32.0)	BE	H	83-64	W	100%
1-3	St. John's (92.0)	BE	H	78-71	W	100%
1-6	Georgetown (169.0)	BE	A	66-90	W	100%
1-9	Butler (41.0)	BE	H	85-74	W	100%
1-13	Xavier (3.0)	BE	A	92-70	L	0%
1-17	Seton Hall (31.0)	BE	H	80-63	W	100%
1-20	Providence (32.0)	BE	A	85-71	L	0%
1-23	St. John's (92.0)	BE	A	63-68	W	100%
1-27	Georgetown (169.0)	BE	H	85-77	W	100%
2-1	Villanova (2.0)	BE	A	98-78	L	0%
2-7	DePaul (186.0)	BE	A	75-76	W	100%
2-10	Xavier (3.0)	BE	H	71-72	L	0%
2-17	Marquette (58.0)	BE	H	86-90	L	0%
2-20	Butler (41.0)	BE	A	93-70	L	0%
2-24	Villanova (2.0)	BE	H	89-83	W	100%
2-27	DePaul (186.0)	BE	H	82-57	W	100%
3-3	Marquette (58.0)	BE	A	85-81	L	0%
3-8	Providence (32.0)	BE	N	68-72	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Creighton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Creighton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Creighton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Creighton	BE	26.33	26.33	63.41	63.41	7.07	7.07
Providence	BE	5.74	5.74	61.29	61.29	1.30	1.30
Villanova	BE	4.27	4.27	90.62	90.62	3.47	3.47
Xavier	BE	4.22	4.22	83.87	83.87	2.86	2.86
St. John's	BE	4.20	4.20	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Butler	BE	4.17	4.17	61.29	61.29	0.94	0.94
Marquette	BE	4.17	4.17	56.67	56.67	0.56	0.56
DePaul	BE	4.14	4.14	37.93	37.93	-1.00	-1.00
Georgetown	BE	4.14	4.14	53.57	53.57	0.30	0.30
Seton Hall	BE	4.12	4.12	66.67	66.67	1.37	1.37
Nebraska	B10	1.72	1.72	70.97	70.97	0.72	0.72
Baylor	B12	1.69	1.69	53.33	53.33	0.11	0.11
Northwestern	B10	1.69	1.69	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
Gonzaga	WCC	1.69	1.69	87.88	87.88	1.28	1.28
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	1.67	1.67	17.24	17.24	-1.09	-1.09
Alcorn St.	SWAC	1.67	1.67	25.93	25.93	-0.80	-0.80
North Dakota	BSky	1.66	1.66	34.48	34.48	-0.52	-0.52
Yale	Ivy	1.64	1.64	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	1.61	1.61	31.03	31.03	-0.61	-0.61
UCLA	P12	1.61	1.61	67.74	67.74	0.57	0.57
USC Upstate	ASun	1.61	1.61	11.11	11.11	-1.25	-1.25
UT Arlington	SB	1.61	1.61	62.50	62.50	0.40	0.40
Wisconsin	B10	0.28	0.28	45.45	45.45	-0.03	-0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.20	0.20	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.18	0.18	82.35	82.35	0.11	0.11
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.16	0.16	9.68	9.68	-0.13	-0.13
Maryland	B10	0.15	0.15	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.15	0.15	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.15	0.15	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.15	0.15	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.13	0.13	28.57	28.57	-0.06	-0.06
Howard	MEAC	0.13	0.13	25.81	25.81	-0.06	-0.06
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.13	0.13	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Illinois	B10	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.13	0.13	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Texas Tech	B12	0.13	0.13	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
Penn	Ivy	0.13	0.13	74.19	74.19	0.06	0.06
Michigan	B10	0.13	0.13	79.41	79.41	0.08	0.08
Rutgers	B10	0.13	0.13	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
Belmont	OVC	0.12	0.12	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
Morehead St.	OVC	0.12	0.12	22.22	22.22	-0.07	-0.07
Texas	B12	0.12	0.12	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.12	0.12	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Ohio St.	B10	0.12	0.12	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
Rhode Island	A10	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Washington	P12	0.12	0.12	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Rider	MAAC	0.12	0.12	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Saint Louis	A10	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Stetson	ASun	0.11	0.11	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
NJIT	ASun	0.11	0.11	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.11	0.11	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	6.67	6.67	-0.09	-0.09
North Texas	CUSA	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	3.33	3.33	-0.10	-0.10
Michigan St.	B10	0.10	0.10	87.88	87.88	0.08	0.08
Princeton	Ivy	0.10	0.10	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.10	0.10	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
Indiana	B10	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Columbia	Ivy	0.10	0.10	26.92	26.92	-0.05	-0.05
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.10	0.10	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
Oregon St.	P12	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
VCU	A10	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.10	0.10	24.14	24.14	-0.05	-0.05
Colorado	P12	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.10	0.10	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.10	0.10	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
BYU	WCC	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.09	0.09	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	15.62	15.62	-0.06	-0.06
Montana	BSky	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Montana St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
LSU	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
TCU	B12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
American	Pat	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Iona	MAAC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Monmouth	MAAC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Vermont	AE	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Kansas	B12	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Hampton	MEAC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Portland St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Stanford	P12	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
UCF	Amer	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
La Salle	A10	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.07	0.07	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.07	0.07	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
Houston	Amer	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.07	0.07	10.71	10.71	-0.06	-0.06
Massachusetts	A10	0.07	0.07	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.05	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Idaho	BSky	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Idaho St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	82.76	82.76	0.04	0.04
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Syracuse	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
California	P12	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Louisville	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
New Orleans	Slnd	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
USC	P12	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Southern	SB	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Texas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	Amer	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Pacific	WCC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.03	-0.03
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.03	0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	Amer	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.02	0.02
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Denver	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Albany	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	24.24	24.24	-0.01	-0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	Pat	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UTSA	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.02	0.02	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.02	0.02	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.02	0.02	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00