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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Creighton

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:26.0
Current RPI:26
Expected SOS:36
Current SOS:36
Current Record:24-9
Expected Record:24-9
Current Conf Record:12-9
Expected Conf Record:12-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:12-0
Expected OOC Record:12-0
Expected OOC RPI:17
Expected OOC SOS:180



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-926.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Creighton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11UMKC (184.0)WACH89-82W100%0.0
11-15Wisconsin (35.0)B10H79-67W100%0.0
11-18Washington St. (159.0)P12N103-77W100%0.0
11-20North Carolina St. (141.0)ACCN112-94W100%0.0
11-21Mississippi (77.0)SECN86-77W100%0.0
11-26Loyola MD (212.0)PatH82-52W100%0.0
11-29Buffalo (146.0)MACH93-72W100%0.0
12-3Akron (58.0)MACH82-70W100%0.0
12-7Nebraska (107.0)B10A62-77W100%0.0
12-9Longwood (343.0)BSthH113-58W100%0.0
12-17Oral Roberts (292.0)SumH66-65W100%0.0
12-20Arizona St. (125.0)P12A85-96W100%0.0
12-28Seton Hall (43.0)BEH89-75W100%0.0
12-31Villanova (1.0)BEH70-80L0%0.0
1-4St. John's (140.0)BEA72-85W100%0.0
1-7Providence (56.0)BEA64-78W100%0.0
1-11Butler (15.0)BEH75-64W100%0.0
1-16Xavier (37.0)BEA67-72W100%0.0
1-21Marquette (60.0)BEH94-102L0%0.0
1-25Georgetown (106.0)BEA71-51L0%0.0
1-28DePaul (239.0)BEH83-66W100%0.0
1-31Butler (15.0)BEA67-76W100%0.0
2-4Xavier (37.0)BEH80-82L0%0.0
2-11DePaul (239.0)BEA58-93W100%0.0
2-15Seton Hall (43.0)BEA87-81L0%0.0
2-19Georgetown (106.0)BEH87-70W100%0.0
2-22Providence (56.0)BEH66-68L0%0.0
2-25Villanova (1.0)BEA79-63L0%0.0
2-28St. John's (140.0)BEH82-68W100%0.0
3-4Marquette (60.0)BEA91-83L0%0.0
3-9Providence (56.0)BEN58-70W100%0.0
3-10Xavier (37.0)BEN75-72W100%0.0
3-11Villanova (1.0)BEN74-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Creighton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Creighton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Creighton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CreightonBE26.4826.4870.9770.9711.1011.10
XavierBE5.515.5164.5264.521.601.60
VillanovaBE5.495.4990.3290.324.424.42
ProvidenceBE5.385.3865.5265.521.671.67
St. John'sBE4.034.0345.1645.16-0.39-0.39
Seton HallBE4.034.0366.6766.671.341.34
GeorgetownBE3.983.9843.3343.33-0.53-0.53
DePaulBE3.983.9830.0030.00-1.59-1.59
MarquetteBE3.983.9858.6258.620.690.69
ButlerBE3.983.9879.3179.312.332.33
WisconsinB101.641.6475.7675.760.840.84
BuffaloMAC1.631.6351.7251.720.060.06
AkronMAC1.571.5778.1278.120.880.88
Arizona St.P121.571.5746.8846.88-0.10-0.10
Washington St.P121.561.5641.3841.38-0.27-0.27
MississippiSEC1.541.5462.5062.500.390.39
Oral RobertsSum1.541.5422.2222.22-0.85-0.85
NebraskaB101.541.5437.9337.93-0.37-0.37
LongwoodBSth1.521.5214.8114.81-1.07-1.07
Loyola MDPat1.521.5248.2848.28-0.05-0.05
North Carolina St.ACC1.521.5248.3948.39-0.05-0.05
UMKCWAC1.521.5248.2848.28-0.05-0.05
NorthwesternB100.190.1967.6567.650.070.07
UtahP120.190.1962.0762.070.050.05
Wake ForestACC0.180.1859.3859.380.030.03
MichiganB100.170.1768.5768.570.060.06
Ohio St.B100.170.1753.1253.120.010.01
ColoradoP120.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
RutgersB100.160.1643.7543.75-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
Northern IowaMVC0.160.1644.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
ArizonaP120.150.1588.2488.240.110.11
Kent St.MAC0.140.1461.7661.760.030.03
LafayettePat0.140.1427.5927.59-0.06-0.06
StanfordP120.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
AmericanPat0.140.1426.6726.67-0.07-0.07
ClemsonACC0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
SyracuseACC0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
MissouriSEC0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Ball St.MAC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
MaineAE0.120.1219.3519.35-0.08-0.08
Missouri St.MVC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.120.1287.8887.880.090.09
North Dakota St.Sum0.120.1260.7160.710.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1255.8855.880.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.120.1210.3410.34-0.10-0.10
IowaB100.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
VermontAE0.120.1284.8584.850.080.08
Penn St.B100.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
OregonP120.120.1284.8584.850.080.08
LehighPat0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
BaylorB120.120.1277.4277.420.060.06
Notre DameACC0.120.1273.5373.530.050.05
MinnesotaB100.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
CincinnatiAmer0.120.1285.2985.290.080.08
La SalleA100.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
TempleAmer0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
IUPUISum0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
BucknellPat0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
MontanaBSky0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.1083.3383.330.070.07
PittsburghACC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
OhioMAC0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
USCP120.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
WashingtonP120.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
HowardMEAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
MarylandB100.090.0974.1974.190.050.05
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0928.1228.12-0.04-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.0910.0010.00-0.08-0.08
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
MassachusettsA100.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
RadfordBSth0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
IllinoisB100.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
BrownIvy0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
WagnerNEC0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
FloridaSEC0.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
TulaneAmer0.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
PennIvy0.070.0746.4346.43-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
CampbellBSth0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
High PointBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
WinthropBSth0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
ArmyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
ColgatePat0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
NavyPat0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Green BayHorz0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Miami FLACC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0529.4129.41-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Texas TechB120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
TulsaAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
DaytonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.020.0277.1477.140.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0219.2319.23-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
BradleyMVC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0296.9796.970.020.02
LSUSEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
Portland St.BSky0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
The CitadelSC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
UNLVMWC0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01