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Through games of Feb 6, 2016.


Creighton

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:90.0
Current RPI:99
Expected SOS:83
Current SOS:109
Current Record:15-9
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:6-5
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:165
Expected OOC SOS:294



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-950.20.41%
21-1060.23.80%
20-1170.915.46%
19-1282.730.78%
18-1396.331.35%
17-14111.715.31%
16-15129.12.74%
15-16145.40.14%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Creighton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Texas Southern (193.2)SWACH93-70W100%0.0
11-17UTSA (341.8)CUSAH103-78W100%0.0
11-19Indiana (39.6)B10A86-65L0%0.0
11-23Rutgers (281.5)B10N75-85W100%0.0
11-25Massachusetts (194.9)A10N97-76W100%0.0
11-28Western Illinois (259.5)SumH97-67W100%0.0
12-2Arizona St. (79.7)P12H77-79L0%0.0
12-5Loyola Chicago (239.1)MVCA68-65L0%0.0
12-9Nebraska (148.3)B10H83-67W100%0.0
12-12IUPUI (179.8)SumH90-65W100%0.0
12-19Oklahoma (3.7)B12A87-74L0%0.0
12-21North Texas (300.6)CUSAH105-82W100%0.0
12-28Coppin St. (321.0)MEACH102-77W100%0.0
12-31St. John's (227.9)BEA70-80W100%0.0
1-2Villanova (3.7)BEH71-85L0%0.0
1-5Georgetown (72.4)BEH79-66W100%0.0
1-9Seton Hall (47.1)BEA67-82W100%0.0
1-12Providence (44.6)BEH48-50L0%0.0
1-17DePaul (163.9)BEA80-91W100%0.0
1-23Butler (54.4)BEH72-64W100%0.0
1-26Georgetown (72.4)BEA74-73L0%0.0
1-30Seton Hall (47.1)BEH65-75L0%0.0
2-3Villanova (3.7)BEA83-58L0%0.0
2-6DePaul (163.9)BEH88-66W100%0.0
2-9Xavier (7.8)BEH0-041%-2.5
2-13Marquette (123.7)BEA0-056%1.5
2-16Butler (54.4)BEA0-025%-7.3
2-24Marquette (123.7)BEH0-077%8.2
2-28St. John's (227.9)BEH0-094%17.2
3-2Providence (44.6)BEA0-040%-2.9
3-5Xavier (7.8)BEA0-020%-9.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Creighton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Creighton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Creighton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CreightonBE26.4626.3158.6557.574.583.99
MarquetteBE0.714.1362.5057.820.180.65
VillanovaBE4.704.1385.7185.433.362.93
St. John'sBE2.574.1327.2725.22-1.17-2.04
ProvidenceBE2.724.1073.9170.301.301.67
ButlerBE2.664.1072.7369.351.211.59
Seton HallBE4.664.1076.1971.262.441.74
GeorgetownBE4.664.0854.5552.500.420.20
DePaulBE4.564.0738.1036.91-1.09-1.07
XavierBE0.634.0791.3085.450.522.89
RutgersB102.351.8022.7321.05-1.28-1.04
IUPUISum2.241.7941.6741.17-0.37-0.32
NebraskaB102.311.7756.5253.540.300.13
IndianaB102.221.7578.2673.161.250.81
UTSACUSA2.231.7014.2914.11-1.59-1.22
Western IllinoisSum2.211.6929.4130.41-0.91-0.66
Loyola ChicagoMVC2.191.6740.9140.58-0.40-0.32
Arizona St.P122.081.6652.1750.040.090.00
MassachusettsA102.131.6642.8640.67-0.30-0.31
OklahomaB122.171.6685.7181.481.551.05
North TexasCUSA2.131.6435.0034.17-0.64-0.52
Texas SouthernSWAC2.131.6447.6255.97-0.100.20
Coppin St.MEAC2.081.6115.7923.25-1.43-0.86
WisconsinB100.320.2760.8755.860.070.03
IowaB100.200.2281.8280.120.130.13
PurdueB100.180.1979.1776.550.100.10
IllinoisB100.180.1847.8344.55-0.01-0.02
George WashingtonA100.270.1678.2674.360.150.08
NorthwesternB100.180.1666.6763.430.060.04
Penn St.B100.130.1650.0046.740.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.130.1683.3383.010.090.10
StanfordP120.220.1650.0046.610.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.150.1539.1341.12-0.03-0.03
IPFWSum0.140.1570.8368.570.060.05
HowardMEAC0.190.1438.1040.73-0.05-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.150.144.357.73-0.14-0.12
FordhamA100.140.1455.0052.290.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.180.1452.1751.940.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.130.1439.1337.74-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.090.1434.7840.92-0.03-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.090.1370.8370.930.040.06
MichiganB100.130.1369.5766.200.050.04
SyracuseACC0.180.1366.6762.570.060.03
MinnesotaB100.130.1326.0927.82-0.06-0.06
Rhode IslandA100.130.1356.5256.620.020.02
MarylandB100.180.1387.5083.690.130.09
DenverSum0.140.1254.1751.800.010.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.160.1256.5256.310.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.1263.6462.150.030.03
South DakotaSum0.100.1241.6741.24-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.1277.2776.850.080.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.140.1240.9149.26-0.03-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.190.125.007.24-0.17-0.10
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.1171.4368.720.040.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.190.1172.0070.500.080.05
Southern MissCUSA0.100.1131.5831.99-0.04-0.04
BradleyMVC0.140.1112.5012.85-0.10-0.08
DrakeMVC0.140.1121.7423.66-0.08-0.06
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.1145.4546.29-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.140.1172.7376.350.060.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.190.1121.0527.81-0.11-0.05
ClemsonACC0.190.1160.8760.210.040.02
Southern UtahBSky0.130.1115.0015.36-0.09-0.08
EvansvilleMVC0.090.1175.0076.230.040.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.1116.6720.14-0.09-0.06
South CarolinaSEC0.140.1186.3679.150.100.06
WagnerNEC0.140.1163.6465.020.040.03
Wake ForestACC0.090.1143.4840.60-0.01-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.1115.7920.03-0.03-0.06
HarvardIvy0.140.1135.0038.53-0.04-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.1147.6252.67-0.000.01
La SalleA100.140.1120.0020.47-0.08-0.06
NJITASun0.090.1154.1755.260.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.140.1182.6178.860.090.06
TempleAmer0.050.1163.6459.810.010.02
USCP120.040.1178.2673.060.020.05
Washington St.P120.180.1136.3632.01-0.05-0.04
Ohio St.B100.090.1158.3354.170.010.01
ArizonaP120.090.1079.1778.310.050.06
BrownIvy0.130.1031.5831.01-0.05-0.04
BryantNEC0.130.1025.0026.38-0.07-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.160.0940.9143.55-0.03-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.040.099.5213.53-0.04-0.06
Iowa St.B120.150.0873.9170.070.070.03
Kansas St.B120.150.0860.8758.450.030.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0840.9145.30-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0822.7327.18-0.03-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0854.1755.090.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0856.5262.780.000.02
RiceCUSA0.150.0828.5729.71-0.06-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.100.0852.1751.930.000.00
AkronMAC0.140.0881.8280.040.090.05
CaliforniaP120.100.0865.2262.900.030.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.140.0830.4335.11-0.05-0.02
TexasB120.050.0869.5762.640.020.02
TroySB0.140.0823.8126.69-0.07-0.04
BaylorB120.090.0872.7366.500.040.03
DaytonA100.050.0886.3682.350.030.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.090.0856.2556.100.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.040.0831.8230.48-0.02-0.03
MississippiSEC0.140.0865.2259.020.040.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.130.0865.2266.160.040.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0836.8438.40-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0820.8323.63-0.05-0.04
Miami FLACC0.090.0880.9575.490.050.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.140.089.0917.11-0.11-0.05
TennesseeSEC0.090.0847.8346.87-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.140.0850.0051.910.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.130.0821.7423.40-0.07-0.04
LSUSEC0.050.0865.2260.280.010.02
MonmouthMAAC0.130.0879.1780.780.080.05
BelmontOVC0.040.0866.6766.540.010.03
DukeACC0.130.0873.9170.060.060.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0620.0026.76-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0654.1750.940.010.00
MarshallCUSA0.100.0650.0051.170.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.0671.4369.410.040.02
ToledoMAC0.090.0659.0960.070.020.01
UABCUSA0.100.0682.6179.430.060.03
New MexicoMWC0.090.0560.8762.990.020.01
Notre DameACC0.090.0569.5765.850.030.02
SamfordSC0.090.0539.1341.32-0.02-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0559.0953.030.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0538.8945.64-0.01-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0530.0035.78-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.090.0590.4886.860.070.04
AuburnSEC0.000.0540.9136.61-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.090.0531.5831.77-0.03-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.090.0569.5764.880.040.02
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0561.9056.690.020.01
KansasB120.050.0581.8277.570.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0545.4551.34-0.010.00
MemphisAmer0.090.0560.8760.800.020.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0534.7830.36-0.00-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0525.0025.47-0.02-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0533.3335.08-0.00-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0547.8344.37-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.0538.1041.91-0.02-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0517.3920.65-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.090.0520.8320.12-0.05-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.050.0565.0066.790.010.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0570.0069.100.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0537.5043.36-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.050.0543.4837.22-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0533.3331.30-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.050.0524.0026.41-0.02-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0556.5260.000.010.01
VMISC0.050.0515.7917.42-0.03-0.04
West VirginiaB120.050.0582.6179.550.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0533.3335.50-0.03-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0556.5257.000.000.01
Texas TechB120.050.0559.0953.130.010.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0517.6529.25-0.06-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0550.0049.100.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0570.5975.550.040.03
Boston CollegeACC0.040.0530.4326.49-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0572.7372.450.040.02
DelawareCAA0.090.0521.7423.31-0.05-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.090.0559.0959.440.020.01
Georgia TechACC0.090.0554.5552.810.010.00
HartfordAE0.040.0526.0926.50-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.000.0534.7834.00-0.00-0.02
PennIvy0.090.0538.8937.66-0.02-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0525.0026.87-0.00-0.02
RadfordBSth0.090.0550.0051.290.000.00
RiderMAAC0.040.0541.6743.53-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0525.0022.77-0.00-0.03
StetsonASun0.000.0523.8127.69-0.00-0.02
UCLAP120.040.0556.5253.250.010.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.090.0576.1973.380.050.02
UNLVMWC0.090.0550.0055.190.000.01
VirginiaACC0.090.0582.6178.050.060.03
WashingtonP120.090.0565.2261.080.030.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0331.8236.12-0.02-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0352.0050.260.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0336.8441.46-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0321.0523.59-0.03-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0357.1459.450.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0329.1733.14-0.02-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0354.5550.110.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0335.0035.99-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0350.0053.300.000.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0365.2259.750.020.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0330.0034.56-0.02-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0321.7422.74-0.03-0.02
IdahoBSky0.050.0354.5554.930.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0314.2917.91-0.04-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0345.0049.37-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.050.0331.8229.14-0.02-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0375.0071.510.020.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0338.8938.51-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0366.6770.540.020.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0333.3334.94-0.02-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.040.0363.6459.230.010.00
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0354.1755.580.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0313.0413.54-0.03-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0350.0051.170.000.00
DavidsonA100.050.0360.0057.950.010.00
DuquesneA100.000.0363.6456.370.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0347.6252.06-0.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0334.7834.21-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.040.0357.8956.090.010.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0384.2181.680.030.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0359.0959.660.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0347.8348.91-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0340.9140.64-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0327.7834.49-0.02-0.01
RichmondA100.050.0354.5554.550.000.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0338.1033.40-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.040.0333.3334.19-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.050.0352.3845.670.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.050.0331.8232.67-0.02-0.01
VCUA100.000.0373.9173.910.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.040.0331.5831.81-0.02-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.040.0337.5040.51-0.01-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.040.0366.6767.680.010.01
ColoradoP120.000.0369.5765.300.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.040.0352.6350.230.000.00
KentuckySEC0.040.0373.9171.570.020.01
Morehead St.OVC0.040.0350.0052.340.000.00
OregonP120.040.0381.8278.150.030.01
Oregon St.P120.040.0361.9056.430.010.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.040.0342.1145.73-0.01-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.040.0315.0027.27-0.03-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.040.0378.2678.040.020.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.040.0342.8650.39-0.010.00
UtahP120.000.0372.7368.540.000.01