Creighton

Conference:	MVC
Expected RPI:	25.0
Current RPI:	25
Expected SOS:	82
Current SOS:	82
Current Record:	27-7
Expected Record:	27-7
Current Conf Record:	16-5
Expected Conf Record:	16-5
Probability of Auto Bid:	100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	12-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-0
Current OOC Record:	11-2
Expected OOC Record:	11-2
Expected OOC RPI:	22
Expected OOC SOS:	51

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
27-7	25.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Creighton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	North Texas (247.0)	SB	H	71-51	W	100%
11-14	UAB (144.0)	CUSA	H	77-60	W	100%
11-18	Presbyterian (340.0)	BSth	H	87-58	W	100%
11-20	Longwood (332.0)	BSth	H	105-57	W	100%
11-23	Wisconsin (32.0)	B10	N	84-74	W	100%
11-24	Arizona St. (90.0)	P12	N	87-73	W	100%
11-28	Boise St. (45.0)	MWC	H	70-83	L	0%
12-1	Saint Joseph's (82.0)	A10	H	80-51	W	100%
12-6	Nebraska (104.0)	B10	A	42-64	W	100%
12-9	Akron (43.0)	MAC	H	77-61	W	100%
12-15	California (54.0)	P12	A	64-74	W	100%
12-19	Tulsa (127.0)	CUSA	H	71-54	W	100%
12-29	Evansville (106.0)	MVC	H	87-70	W	100%
1-2	Illinois St. (117.0)	MVC	A	72-79	W	100%
1-5	Indiana St. (74.0)	MVC	H	79-66	W	100%
1-8	Drake (143.0)	MVC	H	91-61	W	100%
1-11	Missouri St. (203.0)	MVC	A	52-74	W	100%
1-15	Northern Iowa (83.0)	MVC	H	79-68	W	100%
1-19	Wichita St. (37.0)	MVC	A	67-64	L	0%
1-23	Drake (143.0)	MVC	A	74-69	L	0%
1-27	Southern Illinois (192.0)	MVC	A	51-81	W	100%
1-30	Missouri St. (203.0)	MVC	H	91-77	W	100%
2-2	Bradley (190.0)	MVC	H	75-58	W	100%
2-6	Indiana St. (74.0)	MVC	A	76-57	L	0%
2-9	Illinois St. (117.0)	MVC	H	72-75	L	0%
2-13	Northern Iowa (83.0)	MVC	A	61-54	L	0%
2-16	Evansville (106.0)	MVC	A	68-71	W	100%
2-19	Southern Illinois (192.0)	MVC	H	59-45	W	100%
2-23	St. Mary's (29.0)	WCC	A	74-66	L	0%
2-27	Bradley (190.0)	MVC	A	62-80	W	100%
3-2	Wichita St. (37.0)	MVC	H	91-79	W	100%
3-8	Drake (143.0)	MVC	N	65-53	W	100%
3-9	Indiana St. (74.0)	MVC	N	64-43	W	100%
3-10	Wichita St. (37.0)	MVC	N	68-65	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Creighton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Creighton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Creighton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Creighton	MVC	26.49	26.49	80.41	80.41	16.11	16.11
Wichita St.	MVC	5.38	5.38	80.65	80.65	3.29	3.29
Drake	MVC	5.34	5.34	46.43	46.43	-0.38	-0.38
Indiana St.	MVC	5.29	5.29	57.14	57.14	0.76	0.76
Illinois St.	MVC	3.97	3.97	54.84	54.84	0.38	0.38
Missouri St.	MVC	3.96	3.96	31.03	31.03	-1.50	-1.50
Bradley	MVC	3.90	3.90	53.33	53.33	0.26	0.26
Evansville	MVC	3.90	3.90	58.62	58.62	0.67	0.67
Northern Iowa	MVC	3.89	3.89	55.17	55.17	0.40	0.40
Southern Illinois	MVC	3.87	3.87	46.43	46.43	-0.28	-0.28
Tulsa	CUSA	1.61	1.61	53.33	53.33	0.11	0.11
St. Mary's	WCC	1.59	1.59	80.65	80.65	0.97	0.97
California	P12	1.59	1.59	66.67	66.67	0.53	0.53
Wisconsin	B10	1.56	1.56	69.70	69.70	0.62	0.62
UAB	CUSA	1.54	1.54	48.39	48.39	-0.05	-0.05
Presbyterian	BSth	1.52	1.52	17.86	17.86	-0.97	-0.97
Nebraska	B10	1.51	1.51	46.88	46.88	-0.09	-0.09
Longwood	BSth	1.50	1.50	20.00	20.00	-0.90	-0.90
Arizona St.	P12	1.49	1.49	65.62	65.62	0.47	0.47
Akron	MAC	1.47	1.47	83.33	83.33	0.98	0.98
Boise St.	MWC	1.47	1.47	64.29	64.29	0.42	0.42
North Texas	SB	1.47	1.47	37.93	37.93	-0.35	-0.35
Saint Joseph's	A10	1.47	1.47	60.00	60.00	0.29	0.29
Iowa	B10	0.20	0.20	63.64	63.64	0.05	0.05
San Diego St.	MWC	0.19	0.19	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
UCLA	P12	0.19	0.19	73.53	73.53	0.09	0.09
Detroit	Horz	0.16	0.16	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.16	0.16	71.88	71.88	0.07	0.07
Winthrop	BSth	0.15	0.15	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
High Point	BSth	0.14	0.14	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.14	0.14	26.67	26.67	-0.07	-0.07
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.14	0.14	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.14	0.14	13.33	13.33	-0.10	-0.10
Rice	CUSA	0.14	0.14	13.79	13.79	-0.10	-0.10
Utah	P12	0.14	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.14	0.14	88.24	88.24	0.11	0.11
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.14	0.14	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.14	0.14	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.14	0.14	76.47	76.47	0.07	0.07
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.14	0.14	67.86	67.86	0.05	0.05
Ohio St.	B10	0.13	0.13	78.79	78.79	0.08	0.08
New Orleans	ind	0.12	0.12	18.18	18.18	-0.08	-0.08
NC Asheville	BSth	0.12	0.12	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.12	0.12	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.12	0.12	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
New Mexico	MWC	0.12	0.12	85.29	85.29	0.09	0.09
Buffalo	MAC	0.12	0.12	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Xavier	A10	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.12	0.12	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Utah St.	WAC	0.12	0.12	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Air Force	MWC	0.12	0.12	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Southern California	P12	0.11	0.11	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.11	0.11	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.11	0.11	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Michigan	B10	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Fresno St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	32.14	32.14	-0.04	-0.04
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.10	0.10	42.31	42.31	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
Western Kentucky	SB	0.10	0.10	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.10	0.10	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.10	0.10	84.85	84.85	0.07	0.07
Wyoming	MWC	0.10	0.10	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.09	0.09	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Ball St.	MAC	0.09	0.09	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.09	0.09	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.09	0.09	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Kent St.	MAC	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.09	0.09	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.09	0.09	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.09	0.09	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.09	0.09	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Louisville	BE	0.09	0.09	85.29	85.29	0.06	0.06
Oregon	P12	0.09	0.09	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
Central Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Portland	WCC	0.09	0.09	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Dayton	A10	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.09	0.09	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.09	0.09	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.09	0.09	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.07	0.07	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Radford	BSth	0.07	0.07	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.07	0.07	14.81	14.81	-0.05	-0.05
South Alabama	SB	0.07	0.07	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.07	0.07	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.07	0.07	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.07	0.07	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Butler	A10	0.07	0.07	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Denver	WAC	0.07	0.07	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.07	0.07	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Mississippi	SEC	0.07	0.07	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Morehead St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.07	0.07	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.07	0.07	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.07	0.07	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Oregon St.	P12	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Central Florida	CUSA	0.07	0.07	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
George Washington	A10	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Pacific	BW	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.07	0.07	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Georgia Southern	SC	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.07	0.07	93.75	93.75	0.06	0.06
Arizona	P12	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.07	0.07	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Washington	P12	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana	B10	0.07	0.07	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
Western Carolina	SC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	28.00	28.00	-0.02	-0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
North Dakota	BSky	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Christian	B12	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.05	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.04	0.04	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.04	0.04	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.04	0.04	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Idaho	WAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.02	0.02	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
American	Pat	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.02	0.02	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.02	0.02	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.02	0.02	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.02	0.02	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.02	0.02	59.26	59.26	0.00	0.00
Richmond	A10	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.02	0.02	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.02	0.02	85.19	85.19	0.02	0.02
Temple	A10	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.02	0.02	55.17	55.17	0.00	0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.02	0.02	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.02	0.02	39.29	39.29	-0.00	-0.00
Hartford	AE	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Florida	SEC	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.02	0.02	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Samford	SC	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01