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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Creighton

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:10.0
Current RPI:10
Expected SOS:22
Current SOS:22
Current Record:26-7
Expected Record:26-7
Current Conf Record:16-5
Expected Conf Record:16-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:17
Expected OOC SOS:43



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-710.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Creighton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Alcorn St. (314.0)SWACH107-61W100%0.0
11-11UMKC (248.0)WACH96-70W100%0.0
11-16Saint Joseph's (32.0)A10A79-83W100%0.0
11-23Tulsa (73.0)CUSAH82-72W100%0.0
11-28Arizona St. (44.0)P12N60-88W100%0.0
11-29San Diego St. (15.0)MWCN80-86L0%0.0
12-1George Washington (29.0)A10N53-60L0%0.0
12-3Long Beach St. (166.0)BWA61-78W100%0.0
12-8Nebraska (48.0)B10H82-67W100%0.0
12-17Arkansas Pine Bluff (264.0)SWACH88-51W100%0.0
12-22California (63.0)P12H68-54W100%0.0
12-29Chicago St. (259.0)WACH90-58W100%0.0
12-31Marquette (92.0)BEH67-49W100%0.0
1-4Seton Hall (128.0)BEA66-79W100%0.0
1-7DePaul (154.0)BEA62-81W100%0.0
1-12Xavier (47.0)BEH95-89W100%0.0
1-14Butler (150.0)BEH88-60W100%0.0
1-18Providence (40.0)BEA81-68L0%0.0
1-20Villanova (5.0)BEA68-96W100%0.0
1-25Georgetown (69.0)BEH76-63W100%0.0
1-28St. John's (67.0)BEH63-60W100%0.0
2-7DePaul (154.0)BEH78-66W100%0.0
2-9St. John's (67.0)BEA70-65L0%0.0
2-13Butler (150.0)BEA63-68W100%0.0
2-16Villanova (5.0)BEH101-80W100%0.0
2-19Marquette (92.0)BEA70-85W100%0.0
2-23Seton Hall (128.0)BEH72-71W100%0.0
3-1Xavier (47.0)BEA75-69L0%0.0
3-4Georgetown (69.0)BEA75-63L0%0.0
3-8Providence (40.0)BEH88-73W100%0.0
3-13DePaul (154.0)BEN84-62W100%0.0
3-14Xavier (47.0)BEN86-78W100%0.0
3-15Providence (40.0)BEN58-65L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Creighton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Creighton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Creighton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CreightonBE26.4926.4980.5880.5816.2016.20
DePaulBE5.495.4940.0040.00-1.10-1.10
ProvidenceBE5.495.4967.7467.741.951.95
XavierBE5.445.4465.5265.521.691.69
Seton HallBE4.094.0953.1253.120.260.26
MarquetteBE4.064.0656.6756.670.540.54
VillanovaBE3.993.9993.3393.333.463.46
St. John'sBE3.993.9963.3363.331.061.06
GeorgetownBE3.993.9955.1755.170.410.41
ButlerBE3.963.9646.4346.43-0.28-0.28
Arizona St.P121.681.6867.7467.740.600.60
Chicago St.WAC1.641.6437.9337.93-0.39-0.39
Saint Joseph'sA101.591.5975.0075.000.790.79
George WashingtonA101.591.5974.1974.190.770.77
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.571.5739.2939.29-0.34-0.34
Alcorn St.SWAC1.571.5733.3333.33-0.52-0.52
UMKCWAC1.571.5735.7135.71-0.45-0.45
CaliforniaP121.561.5661.2961.290.350.35
San Diego St.MWC1.561.5686.6786.671.151.15
Long Beach St.BW1.521.5244.8344.83-0.16-0.16
NebraskaB101.521.5263.3363.330.400.40
TulsaCUSA1.521.5265.6265.620.470.47
Grambling St.SWAC0.250.2514.8114.81-0.17-0.17
USCP120.210.2132.2632.26-0.08-0.08
La SalleA100.210.2148.3948.39-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.190.1976.4776.470.100.10
MassachusettsA100.180.1875.0075.000.090.09
Wright St.Horz0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
IowaB100.170.1761.2961.290.040.04
Oregon St.P120.170.1751.6151.610.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.160.1657.1457.140.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.150.1555.1755.170.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Washington St.P120.140.1430.0030.00-0.06-0.06
ArizonaP120.140.1488.2488.240.110.11
TennesseeSEC0.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
IdahoWAC0.130.1345.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.130.1346.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.120.1281.8281.820.080.08
WashingtonP120.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
KansasB120.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
New MexicoMWC0.120.1281.8281.820.080.08
Ohio St.B100.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
OregonP120.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
WisconsinB100.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
StanfordP120.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
SyracuseACC0.120.1284.3884.380.080.08
NorthwesternB100.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
MarylandACC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.1130.3030.30-0.04-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
SeattleWAC0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
PurdueB100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.100.1010.7110.71-0.08-0.08
UC IrvineBW0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
UNLVMWC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Penn St.B100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.100.1036.0036.00-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
ColoradoP120.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
LafayettePat0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.090.0980.6580.650.060.06
Wichita St.MVC0.090.09100.00100.000.090.09
MaineAE0.090.0917.8617.86-0.06-0.06
MaristMAAC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0767.8667.860.030.03
IllinoisB100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
IndianaB100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
MichiganB100.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
DenverSum0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
NevadaMWC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Utah St.MWC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
MercerASun0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
UCLAP120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
UtahP120.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
George MasonA100.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0714.8114.81-0.05-0.05
TexasB120.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
RutgersAmer0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
BrownIvy0.070.0751.8551.850.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
KentuckySEC0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
YaleIvy0.070.0751.8551.850.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.050.0570.3770.370.020.02
UC DavisBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ColgatePat0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ElonSC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
High PointBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
LipscombASun0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.053.573.57-0.04-0.04
UABCUSA0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
BucknellPat0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
New HampshireAE0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
UMBCAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
DuquesneA100.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.040.0444.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.040.0431.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.040.0448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.040.0431.0331.03-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.040.0421.2121.21-0.03-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.040.0445.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.040.0429.0329.03-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
TroySB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
LouisvilleAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
SMUAmer0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Texas TechB120.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
DrexelCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.020.0217.8617.86-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01