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Through games of Feb 22, 2017.


BYU

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:81.5
Current RPI:90
Expected SOS:90
Current SOS:101
Current Record:19-10
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:10-6
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-3
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:116
Expected OOC SOS:113



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1067.93.86%
20-1179.881.05%
19-1293.915.09%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for BYU.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Princeton (56.6)IvyH82-73W100%0.0
11-17Coppin St. (329.4)MEACH96-59W100%0.0
11-19Coastal Carolina (160.9)SBH81-65W100%0.0
11-21Saint Louis (256.8)A10N92-62W100%0.0
11-23Valparaiso (62.5)HorzN92-89L0%0.0
11-26Utah Valley (231.1)WACH101-114L0%0.0
11-30Utah St. (180.8)MWCN77-63W100%0.0
12-3USC (35.1)P12N91-84L0%0.0
12-7Weber St. (167.2)BSkyH77-66W100%0.0
12-10Colorado (109.9)P12H79-71W100%0.0
12-17Illinois (66.4)B10N75-73L0%0.0
12-20Idaho St. (333.7)BSkyH84-58W100%0.0
12-22Cal St. Bakersfield (77.9)WACH81-71W100%0.0
12-29Santa Clara (145.0)WCCH89-59W100%0.0
12-31Loyola Marymount (161.3)WCCA76-81W100%0.0
1-5Saint Mary's (16.1)WCCA81-68L0%0.0
1-7Pacific (224.7)WCCH91-62W100%0.0
1-12San Francisco (84.9)WCCH85-75W100%0.0
1-14San Diego (197.7)WCCA88-75L0%0.0
1-19Pepperdine (228.0)WCCH99-70W100%0.0
1-21Pacific (224.7)WCCA47-62W100%0.0
1-26Santa Clara (145.0)WCCA76-68L0%0.0
1-28Loyola Marymount (161.3)WCCH85-77W100%0.0
2-2Gonzaga (5.0)WCCH75-85L0%0.0
2-4Portland (231.7)WCCH73-62W100%0.0
2-9Pepperdine (228.0)WCCA99-83L0%0.0
2-11San Francisco (84.9)WCCA52-68W100%0.0
2-16San Diego (197.7)WCCH82-70W100%0.0
2-18Saint Mary's (16.1)WCCH57-70L0%0.0
2-23Portland (231.7)WCCA0-084%10.6
2-25Gonzaga (5.0)WCCA0-05%-18.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

BYU's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


BYU's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  BYU.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BYUWCC26.3926.3660.3360.665.455.62
PepperdineWCC4.284.1628.0026.82-1.88-1.93
GonzagaWCC2.654.14100.0099.972.654.14
Santa ClaraWCC4.244.1450.0049.530.00-0.04
PortlandWCC2.644.1330.7731.01-1.02-1.57
San DiegoWCC4.304.1340.0039.39-0.86-0.88
PacificWCC4.214.1134.6234.51-1.29-1.27
San FranciscoWCC4.214.1169.2369.061.621.57
Saint Mary'sWCC4.214.1088.0088.563.203.17
Loyola MarymountWCC4.204.1050.0049.920.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC1.941.8231.8234.09-0.70-0.58
Weber St.BSky1.931.7863.6463.110.530.47
USCP121.881.7576.9275.061.010.88
Idaho St.BSky1.871.7316.6717.47-1.25-1.13
Utah St.MWC1.831.7044.0045.61-0.22-0.15
ColoradoP121.791.6957.6957.580.280.26
ValparaisoHorz1.821.6977.7876.601.010.90
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.801.6772.7374.260.820.81
Coppin St.MEAC1.791.6726.9226.98-0.83-0.77
Coastal CarolinaSB1.761.6448.0049.20-0.07-0.03
IllinoisB101.721.6153.8553.470.130.11
PrincetonIvy1.721.6176.1977.000.900.87
Saint LouisA101.721.6133.3332.06-0.57-0.58
Portland St.BSky0.330.3140.9144.15-0.06-0.04
UCLAP120.250.2488.8988.050.200.19
NevadaMWC0.260.2278.5778.260.150.13
San Diego St.MWC0.220.2257.6958.100.030.04
ArizonaP120.190.2289.2987.680.150.16
Northern ArizonaBSky0.230.2023.0823.14-0.13-0.11
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.230.2012.5014.87-0.17-0.14
MontanaBSky0.170.2050.0050.340.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.170.2064.0065.600.050.06
Southern UtahBSky0.230.2012.0013.36-0.18-0.14
San Jose St.MWC0.190.1950.0046.860.00-0.01
UtahP120.190.1960.0060.170.040.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.230.1934.7836.95-0.07-0.05
UC IrvineBW0.220.1951.8554.430.010.02
Washington St.P120.190.1942.3139.94-0.03-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.180.1883.3384.080.120.12
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.140.1828.0028.37-0.06-0.08
Chicago St.WAC0.170.1812.0011.80-0.13-0.14
Northern ColoradoBSky0.210.1729.1731.48-0.09-0.06
UT ArlingtonSB0.200.1776.0076.570.100.09
StanfordP120.170.1750.0047.370.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.160.1650.0049.820.00-0.00
DaytonA100.160.1680.7779.440.100.10
Oregon St.P120.160.1614.2913.58-0.11-0.12
WashingtonP120.130.1633.3332.52-0.04-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.140.1565.3865.420.040.05
SeattleWAC0.140.1539.1337.81-0.03-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.180.1563.6464.970.050.04
Boise St.MWC0.170.1464.0064.920.050.04
Colorado St.MWC0.160.1465.3864.150.050.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.130.1443.4843.27-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.130.1426.0928.38-0.06-0.06
WyomingMWC0.160.1453.8553.510.010.01
OregonP120.160.1385.7185.930.110.10
UMKCWAC0.110.1248.0046.99-0.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.070.1247.8350.77-0.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.070.1246.1546.03-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.140.1156.0055.930.020.01
Fresno St.MWC0.130.1157.6957.750.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1144.0045.06-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.130.1120.0022.21-0.08-0.06
Little RockSB0.130.1144.0043.41-0.02-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.130.1128.0029.86-0.06-0.04
CaliforniaP120.100.1166.6766.210.030.04
South DakotaSum0.060.1162.9662.810.020.03
St. BonaventureA100.130.1162.9663.390.030.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.110.003.38-0.12-0.10
TroySB0.130.1153.8552.820.010.01
Green BayHorz0.120.1157.6958.300.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.120.1144.4443.17-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.080.0926.0925.97-0.04-0.04
CornellIvy0.070.0925.0025.31-0.04-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.100.0925.0027.75-0.05-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.070.0941.6743.49-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.100.0957.1456.440.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.070.0862.9662.450.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.070.0834.6233.56-0.02-0.03
VCUA100.100.0882.1479.370.070.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0856.0055.900.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.100.0853.8551.910.010.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0820.0021.74-0.04-0.05
SamfordSC0.090.0855.5656.300.010.01
AkronMAC0.060.0877.7876.390.030.04
LamarSlnd0.100.0850.0052.050.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.090.0861.5459.750.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.090.0862.9661.340.020.02
DetroitHorz0.090.0822.2222.38-0.05-0.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.060.0862.9662.600.020.02
MassachusettsA100.090.0848.1547.57-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.060.0846.4344.09-0.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.080.0637.5037.60-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.040.0640.9140.59-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.040.0666.6765.300.010.02
PennIvy0.080.0647.8350.32-0.000.00
UTSACUSA0.070.0636.0035.97-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.080.0659.0960.220.010.01
DenverSum0.070.0657.1456.680.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.070.0650.0050.440.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0650.0049.270.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0631.8233.09-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.030.0635.7134.80-0.01-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.040.0637.0438.57-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.070.0685.7185.540.050.04
NJITASun0.070.0629.6330.60-0.03-0.02
Texas TechB120.070.0660.7159.310.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0635.7135.66-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.070.0682.1480.780.040.03
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0625.0027.77-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0669.2368.600.030.02
BelmontOVC0.060.0680.0079.920.040.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0657.6955.370.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.070.0660.0059.400.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0640.7442.89-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0634.7833.41-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0675.0077.120.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.060.0625.0025.84-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0630.7734.71-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0660.8762.050.010.01
Texas St.SB0.070.0654.1753.210.010.00
UABCUSA0.060.0651.8553.220.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0648.1547.60-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0559.0960.070.010.01
WisconsinB100.070.0581.4880.840.040.03
WoffordSC0.070.0544.4443.90-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0536.3636.47-0.02-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0552.1749.960.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.030.0535.7137.15-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0525.0026.71-0.03-0.03
FloridaSEC0.030.0582.1480.600.020.03
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0582.1481.630.040.03
IowaB100.060.0553.5751.590.000.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0566.6764.750.010.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0540.7440.75-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.060.0577.7876.990.040.03
MichiganB100.060.0564.2963.090.020.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0525.0026.25-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0514.2918.10-0.02-0.03
NorthwesternB100.060.0571.4368.340.030.02
OaklandHorz0.060.0574.0773.500.030.03
Penn St.B100.060.0550.0048.740.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0535.7136.66-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.060.0553.3353.310.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0544.8343.96-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0551.8552.250.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0557.6956.380.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0553.5751.920.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0532.1431.91-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0551.7250.330.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.060.0566.6766.780.020.02
WinthropBSth0.060.0576.0077.350.030.03
DuquesneA100.060.0535.7134.58-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.060.0562.9661.470.020.01
La SalleA100.030.0553.8554.810.000.01
BucknellPat0.040.0373.3373.730.020.01
HawaiiBW0.040.0348.0047.45-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.040.0325.9325.63-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.040.0359.2660.160.010.01
LibertyBSth0.040.0357.6957.630.010.00
MonmouthMAAC0.040.0382.7681.880.030.02
North FloridaASun0.040.0330.7732.11-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.040.0362.0762.320.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0360.7159.670.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0365.3866.650.010.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0351.8553.680.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0371.4372.700.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.9327.44-0.02-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0329.6331.16-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0320.0020.88-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.030.0350.0049.130.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0342.8642.57-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.2321.44-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0330.7733.71-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0351.7253.710.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0346.1546.92-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0333.3334.37-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0344.0042.77-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0374.0773.870.020.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0357.1455.800.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0378.5776.210.020.01
IndianaB100.030.0353.5752.940.000.00
IUPUISum0.030.0338.4639.08-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0382.1481.760.020.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0359.2657.930.000.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0375.0073.470.020.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.9325.77-0.02-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0344.0042.70-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0351.7249.530.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0375.0074.370.020.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.5752.340.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0342.8642.33-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0340.7442.17-0.01-0.00
TexasB120.030.0335.7134.84-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0378.5777.800.020.01
XavierBE0.030.0364.2964.300.010.01
DavidsonA100.030.0353.8552.600.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0346.1546.96-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.030.0344.4444.02-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0351.8551.210.000.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0360.7159.890.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0351.8551.810.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0359.2659.930.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0314.8115.43-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0348.2848.17-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.8551.660.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0386.2186.330.020.02