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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


BYU

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:65.0
Current RPI:65
Expected SOS:83
Current SOS:83
Current Record:22-11
Expected Record:22-11
Current Conf Record:13-7
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-3
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:121
Expected OOC SOS:122



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-1165.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for BYU.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Princeton (47.0)IvyH82-73W100%0.0
11-17Coppin St. (336.0)MEACH96-59W100%0.0
11-19Coastal Carolina (183.0)SBH81-65W100%0.0
11-21Saint Louis (238.0)A10N92-62W100%0.0
11-23Valparaiso (71.0)HorzN92-89L0%0.0
11-26Utah Valley (206.0)WACH101-114L0%0.0
11-30Utah St. (181.0)MWCN77-63W100%0.0
12-3USC (40.0)P12N91-84L0%0.0
12-7Weber St. (185.0)BSkyH77-66W100%0.0
12-10Colorado (99.0)P12H79-71W100%0.0
12-17Illinois (62.0)B10N75-73L0%0.0
12-20Idaho St. (340.0)BSkyH84-58W100%0.0
12-22Cal St. Bakersfield (75.0)WACH81-71W100%0.0
12-29Santa Clara (126.0)WCCH89-59W100%0.0
12-31Loyola Marymount (153.0)WCCA76-81W100%0.0
1-5Saint Mary's (17.0)WCCA81-68L0%0.0
1-7Pacific (223.0)WCCH91-62W100%0.0
1-12San Francisco (94.0)WCCH85-75W100%0.0
1-14San Diego (205.0)WCCA88-75L0%0.0
1-19Pepperdine (245.0)WCCH99-70W100%0.0
1-21Pacific (223.0)WCCA47-62W100%0.0
1-26Santa Clara (126.0)WCCA76-68L0%0.0
1-28Loyola Marymount (153.0)WCCH85-77W100%0.0
2-2Gonzaga (8.0)WCCH75-85L0%0.0
2-4Portland (233.0)WCCH73-62W100%0.0
2-9Pepperdine (245.0)WCCA99-83L0%0.0
2-11San Francisco (94.0)WCCA52-68W100%0.0
2-16San Diego (205.0)WCCH82-70W100%0.0
2-18Saint Mary's (17.0)WCCH57-70L0%0.0
2-23Portland (233.0)WCCA78-97W100%0.0
2-25Gonzaga (8.0)WCCA71-79W100%0.0
3-4Loyola Marymount (153.0)WCCN89-81W100%0.0
3-6Saint Mary's (17.0)WCCN81-50L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

BYU's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


BYU's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  BYU.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BYUWCC26.4526.4563.4563.457.117.11
Saint Mary'sWCC5.485.4886.2186.213.973.97
Loyola MarymountWCC5.375.3753.8553.850.410.41
GonzagaWCC4.114.11100.00100.004.114.11
PortlandWCC4.064.0631.0331.03-1.54-1.54
Santa ClaraWCC4.034.0350.0050.000.000.00
PacificWCC4.014.0133.3333.33-1.34-1.34
PepperdineWCC4.004.0025.0025.00-2.00-2.00
San DiegoWCC3.983.9839.2939.29-0.85-0.85
San FranciscoWCC3.963.9665.5265.521.231.23
Utah ValleyWAC1.721.7240.7440.74-0.32-0.32
Weber St.BSky1.671.6758.6258.620.290.29
USCP121.641.6471.8871.880.720.72
Idaho St.BSky1.621.6213.7913.79-1.17-1.17
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.601.6070.3770.370.650.65
Utah St.MWC1.591.5944.8344.83-0.16-0.16
ValparaisoHorz1.591.5973.3373.330.740.74
ColoradoP121.591.5958.0658.060.260.26
Coppin St.MEAC1.561.5624.1424.14-0.81-0.81
Coastal CarolinaSB1.541.5446.6746.67-0.10-0.10
IllinoisB101.521.5253.3353.330.100.10
PrincetonIvy1.521.5281.4881.480.950.95
Saint LouisA101.521.5237.5037.50-0.38-0.38
Portland St.BSky0.300.3042.8642.86-0.04-0.04
NevadaMWC0.270.2782.3582.350.180.18
UCLAP120.240.2487.8887.880.180.18
Southern UtahBSky0.230.2312.9012.90-0.17-0.17
UT ArlingtonSB0.220.2274.1974.190.110.11
San Jose St.MWC0.220.2242.8642.86-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.210.2188.2488.240.160.16
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.200.2064.5264.520.060.06
San Diego St.MWC0.200.2056.2556.250.020.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.200.2037.9337.93-0.05-0.05
Washington St.P120.190.1940.0040.00-0.04-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.190.1957.5857.580.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.190.1983.3383.330.120.12
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.180.1818.5218.52-0.11-0.11
Northern ArizonaBSky0.180.1825.8125.81-0.08-0.08
MontanaBSky0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
UtahP120.170.1762.0762.070.040.04
StanfordP120.170.1743.3343.33-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.170.1776.6776.670.090.09
WashingtonP120.160.1629.0329.03-0.07-0.07
SeattleWAC0.160.1637.0437.04-0.04-0.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.160.1624.1424.14-0.08-0.08
Chicago St.WAC0.160.1610.3410.34-0.12-0.12
Boise St.MWC0.150.1562.0762.070.040.04
North DakotaBSky0.150.1567.8667.860.050.05
Colorado St.MWC0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.150.1535.7135.71-0.04-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
Oregon St.P120.140.1412.9012.90-0.11-0.11
Grand CanyonWAC0.130.1368.9768.970.050.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.120.1222.2222.22-0.07-0.07
South Carolina St.MEAC0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
WyomingMWC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
OregonP120.120.1284.8584.850.080.08
UMKCWAC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
IdahoBSky0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
UC DavisBW0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
Little RockSB0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
TroySB0.100.1058.8258.820.020.02
Green BayHorz0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.103.333.33-0.09-0.09
South DakotaSum0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
DartmouthIvy0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
PennIvy0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.0832.0032.00-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
VCUA100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Air ForceMWC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
LamarSlnd0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
SamfordSC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
DetroitHorz0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
MichiganB100.070.0768.5768.570.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0729.4129.41-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
AkronMAC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0760.7160.710.020.02
UABCUSA0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
BrownIvy0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0561.5461.540.010.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
PurdueB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
WisconsinB100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
IowaB100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
BryantNEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
La SalleA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
IndianaB100.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
IUPUISum0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Michigan St.B100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
MinnesotaB100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
MissouriSEC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
RutgersB100.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
West VirginiaB120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Notre DameACC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
TexasB120.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
DavidsonA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0244.4444.44-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
RichmondA100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02