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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


BYU

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:67.0
Current RPI:67
Expected SOS:117
Current SOS:117
Current Record:24-10
Expected Record:24-10
Current Conf Record:13-8
Expected Conf Record:13-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-1
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:38
Expected OOC SOS:148



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-1067.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for BYU.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)SWACH91-61W100%0.0
11-15Princeton (226.0)IvyA56-65W100%0.0
11-18UT Arlington (108.0)SBH75-89L0%0.0
11-21Niagara (163.0)MAACH95-88W100%0.0
11-24Alabama (42.0)SECN59-71L0%0.0
11-25Massachusetts (240.0)A10N68-66W100%0.0
11-29Utah Valley (83.0)WACA58-85W100%0.0
12-2Utah St. (152.0)MWCA66-75W100%0.0
12-6Illinois St. (85.0)MVCH80-68W100%0.0
12-9Weber St. (162.0)BSkyN74-68W100%0.0
12-16Utah (59.0)P12H77-65W100%0.0
12-21Idaho St. (268.0)BSkyH85-71W100%0.0
12-23Texas Southern (222.0)SWACH73-52W100%0.0
12-28Portland (285.0)WCCH69-45W100%0.0
12-30Saint Mary's (40.0)WCCH64-74L0%0.0
1-4San Francisco (139.0)WCCA59-69W100%0.0
1-6Pacific (190.0)WCCA67-66L0%0.0
1-11Pepperdine (317.0)WCCH83-63W100%0.0
1-13Santa Clara (264.0)WCCA50-84W100%0.0
1-18Loyola Marymount (258.0)WCCH82-67W100%0.0
1-20San Diego (143.0)WCCH74-58W100%0.0
1-25Saint Mary's (40.0)WCCA75-62L0%0.0
1-27Pacific (190.0)WCCH80-65W100%0.0
2-1Loyola Marymount (258.0)WCCA76-69L0%0.0
2-3Gonzaga (21.0)WCCA68-60L0%0.0
2-8Santa Clara (264.0)WCCH80-58W100%0.0
2-10San Francisco (139.0)WCCH75-73W100%0.0
2-15Pepperdine (317.0)WCCA70-75W100%0.0
2-17San Diego (143.0)WCCA75-62L0%0.0
2-22Portland (285.0)WCCA60-72W100%0.0
2-24Gonzaga (21.0)WCCH65-79L0%0.0
3-3San Diego (143.0)WCCN85-79W100%0.0
3-5Saint Mary's (40.0)WCCN72-85W100%0.0
3-6Gonzaga (21.0)WCCN74-54L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

BYU's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


BYU's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  BYU.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BYUWCC26.5126.5170.1370.1310.6710.67
GonzagaWCC5.415.4187.1087.104.024.02
Saint Mary'sWCC5.325.3286.6786.673.903.90
San DiegoWCC5.265.2659.2659.260.970.97
PepperdineWCC3.983.9817.2417.24-2.61-2.61
Loyola MarymountWCC3.973.9732.1432.14-1.42-1.42
San FranciscoWCC3.953.9556.6756.670.530.53
PacificWCC3.893.8941.3841.38-0.67-0.67
PortlandWCC3.883.8825.9325.93-1.87-1.87
Santa ClaraWCC3.883.8837.0437.04-1.01-1.01
Weber St.BSky1.621.6262.9662.960.420.42
Utah St.MWC1.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC1.581.5845.4545.45-0.14-0.14
UT ArlingtonSB1.561.5659.3859.380.290.29
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.561.5612.9012.90-1.16-1.16
Idaho St.BSky1.551.5544.4444.44-0.17-0.17
Utah ValleyWAC1.521.5267.8667.860.540.54
UtahP121.521.5265.5265.520.470.47
NiagaraMAAC1.521.5261.2961.290.340.34
MassachusettsA101.491.4940.6240.62-0.28-0.28
AlabamaSEC1.491.4954.5554.550.140.14
Illinois St.MVC1.471.4754.8454.840.140.14
PrincetonIvy1.471.4744.4444.44-0.16-0.16
San Jose St.MWC0.310.3110.3410.34-0.25-0.25
Portland St.BSky0.280.2856.6756.670.040.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.270.2716.6716.67-0.18-0.18
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.260.2640.0040.00-0.05-0.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.230.2313.3313.33-0.17-0.17
Cal St. FullertonBW0.220.2262.0762.070.050.05
NevadaMWC0.210.2179.4179.410.120.12
North DakotaBSky0.200.2033.3333.33-0.07-0.07
SeattleWAC0.190.1956.6756.670.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.190.1983.3383.330.130.13
Boise St.MWC0.190.1973.3373.330.090.09
Northern ColoradoBSky0.180.1861.2961.290.040.04
Southern UtahBSky0.180.1836.6736.67-0.05-0.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
UC RiversideBW0.170.1724.1424.14-0.09-0.09
Arizona St.P120.170.1764.5264.520.050.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.170.1770.0070.000.070.07
UC DavisBW0.170.1766.6766.670.060.06
Washington St.P120.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
WashingtonP120.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
San Diego St.MWC0.160.1667.7467.740.060.06
Cal PolyBW0.150.1524.1424.14-0.08-0.08
HarvardIvy0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
UNLVMWC0.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
St. Francis PANEC0.140.1457.1457.140.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.130.139.689.68-0.11-0.11
USCP120.130.1367.6567.650.040.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
ColoradoP120.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
ValparaisoMVC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.110.1112.5012.50-0.09-0.09
WyomingMWC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
DaytonA100.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
GeorgiaSEC0.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
FloridaSEC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
IdahoBSky0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.100.1014.2914.29-0.07-0.07
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
North TexasCUSA0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0941.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.0984.3884.380.060.06
CaliforniaP120.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
DuquesneA100.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
UC IrvineBW0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
Ohio St.B100.090.0975.0075.000.040.04
TexasB120.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
HawaiiBW0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
CornellIvy0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
BradleyMVC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
IonaMAAC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
ArizonaP120.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
OregonP120.070.0764.7164.710.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
KentuckySEC0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
New MexicoMWC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
AuburnSEC0.060.0678.1278.120.040.04
HowardMEAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
IUPUIHorz0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.060.0688.2488.240.050.05
BrownIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
MontanaBSky0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
PennIvy0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
YaleIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ButlerBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.053.333.33-0.05-0.05
DePaulBE0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0532.0032.00-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.040.0437.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.040.0432.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.040.0446.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.040.0436.6736.67-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
DukeACC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.028.008.00-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0232.3532.35-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.020.0282.7682.760.020.02
RiderMAAC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
SamfordSC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
UABCUSA0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
FordhamA100.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
RiceCUSA0.020.0217.2417.24-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
BaylorB120.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
ClemsonACC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
KansasB120.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
LipscombASun0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
MercerSC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
OaklandHorz0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
SyracuseACC0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
TCUB120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
ToledoMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
UCFAmer0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01