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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


BYU

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:62.6
Current RPI:70
Expected SOS:147
Current SOS:182
Current Record:17-4
Expected Record:24-7
Current Conf Record:6-2
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-1
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:37
Expected OOC SOS:149



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-435.30.31%
26-542.63.80%
25-650.117.74%
24-758.434.09%
23-867.528.13%
22-979.012.67%
21-1093.02.73%
20-11106.00.49%
19-12118.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for BYU.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)SWACH91-61W100%0.0
11-15Princeton (141.3)IvyA56-65W100%0.0
11-18UT Arlington (120.5)SBH75-89L0%0.0
11-21Niagara (187.6)MAACH95-88W100%0.0
11-24Alabama (40.0)SECN59-71L0%0.0
11-25Massachusetts (201.1)A10N68-66W100%0.0
11-29Utah Valley (84.7)WACA58-85W100%0.0
12-2Utah St. (167.7)MWCA66-75W100%0.0
12-6Illinois St. (120.8)MVCH80-68W100%0.0
12-9Weber St. (183.0)BSkyN74-68W100%0.0
12-16Utah (70.5)P12H77-65W100%0.0
12-21Idaho St. (263.3)BSkyH85-71W100%0.0
12-23Texas Southern (208.4)SWACH73-52W100%0.0
12-28Portland (257.0)WCCH69-45W100%0.0
12-30Saint Mary's (35.0)WCCH64-74L0%0.0
1-4San Francisco (171.2)WCCA59-69W100%0.0
1-6Pacific (176.2)WCCA67-66L0%0.0
1-11Pepperdine (307.4)WCCH83-63W100%0.0
1-13Santa Clara (258.5)WCCA50-84W100%0.0
1-18Loyola Marymount (263.0)WCCH82-67W100%0.0
1-20San Diego (141.9)WCCH74-58W100%0.0
1-25Saint Mary's (35.0)WCCA0-024%-8.0
1-27Pacific (176.2)WCCH0-090%14.3
2-1Loyola Marymount (263.0)WCCA0-085%11.8
2-3Gonzaga (33.1)WCCA0-014%-12.2
2-8Santa Clara (258.5)WCCH0-095%18.0
2-10San Francisco (171.2)WCCH0-084%11.0
2-15Pepperdine (307.4)WCCA0-088%13.3
2-17San Diego (141.9)WCCA0-065%4.2
2-22Portland (257.0)WCCA0-089%13.5
2-24Gonzaga (33.1)WCCH0-030%-5.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

BYU's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


BYU's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  BYU.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BYUWCC26.3426.3577.3275.1714.3913.26
GonzagaWCC0.634.1780.9583.610.392.80
PepperdineWCC2.824.1411.1119.26-2.19-2.54
Loyola MarymountWCC2.814.1329.4130.79-1.16-1.59
Saint Mary'sWCC2.764.1190.0088.992.213.21
PacificWCC2.754.1142.1143.71-0.43-0.52
San FranciscoWCC2.774.1152.6351.650.150.14
San DiegoWCC2.824.1166.6760.490.940.86
PortlandWCC2.764.1029.4128.96-1.14-1.73
Santa ClaraWCC2.694.1035.2935.30-0.79-1.21
Weber St.BSky2.641.7960.0059.600.530.34
Utah St.MWC2.581.7547.3747.07-0.14-0.10
UT ArlingtonSB2.571.7257.8960.720.410.37
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.571.720.0011.01-2.57-1.34
Texas SouthernSWAC2.441.7222.2245.73-1.36-0.15
Idaho St.BSky2.521.7046.6742.51-0.17-0.26
Utah ValleyWAC2.531.6770.5968.551.040.62
NiagaraMAAC2.501.6760.0055.000.500.17
UtahP122.501.6764.7161.060.740.37
AlabamaSEC2.441.6466.6757.620.810.25
MassachusettsA102.441.6452.6348.340.13-0.05
Illinois St.MVC2.381.6150.0047.510.00-0.08
PrincetonIvy2.381.6156.2562.510.300.40
Portland St.BSky0.410.3258.8263.210.070.08
San Jose St.MWC0.390.3111.7612.81-0.29-0.23
Sacramento St.BSky0.330.2816.6724.46-0.22-0.14
NevadaMWC0.310.2585.7182.070.220.16
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.260.2530.0036.48-0.11-0.07
Northern ArizonaBSky0.280.2311.1115.30-0.22-0.16
Cal St. FullertonBW0.320.2356.2556.810.040.03
North DakotaBSky0.210.2029.4134.76-0.09-0.06
SeattleWAC0.200.2057.8954.500.030.02
UC RiversideBW0.250.2017.6523.89-0.16-0.10
Boise St.MWC0.250.2078.9576.970.150.11
Arizona St.P120.260.1978.9576.130.150.10
UC DavisBW0.240.1958.8262.450.040.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.210.1858.8257.140.040.02
Southern UtahBSky0.210.1837.5033.78-0.05-0.06
Cal PolyBW0.260.1723.5328.21-0.14-0.07
New Mexico St.WAC0.190.1783.3384.230.120.11
WashingtonP120.130.1770.0061.440.050.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.180.1670.5969.610.080.06
Washington St.P120.190.1650.0042.180.00-0.03
UNLVMWC0.250.1673.6865.280.120.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.180.1610.5316.75-0.14-0.10
USCP120.200.1471.4368.300.090.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.130.1470.0071.230.050.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.130.1438.8946.03-0.03-0.01
ValparaisoMVC0.130.1450.0051.360.000.00
HarvardIvy0.120.1437.5046.63-0.03-0.01
StanfordP120.120.1455.0050.370.010.00
San Diego St.MWC0.120.1358.8262.830.020.03
WyomingMWC0.180.1361.1156.830.040.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.130.1321.0539.47-0.07-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.170.1352.9459.250.010.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.210.1217.6519.33-0.14-0.07
IdahoBSky0.070.1264.7166.850.020.04
ColoradoP120.060.1160.0053.730.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.117.6920.09-0.06-0.07
Long Beach St.BW0.120.1140.0043.34-0.02-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.130.1168.4263.980.050.03
Air ForceMWC0.060.1137.5031.76-0.01-0.04
Texas St.SB0.060.1157.8950.210.010.00
CanisiusMAAC0.060.1160.0060.340.010.02
DuquesneA100.120.1170.0058.100.050.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.1016.6724.29-0.04-0.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.130.1012.5025.47-0.09-0.05
DaytonA100.120.1047.3750.95-0.010.00
FloridaSEC0.000.1073.6871.550.000.04
GeorgiaSEC0.180.1066.6755.930.060.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.1036.8444.12-0.02-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.1038.8943.43-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.130.1027.7840.97-0.06-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.130.0943.7549.10-0.02-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.060.0950.0047.670.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.130.0945.0045.02-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.200.0968.7563.960.080.02
BradleyMVC0.140.0965.0057.870.040.01
Oregon St.P120.130.0957.8950.810.020.00
Fresno St.MWC0.130.0866.6763.420.040.02
CornellIvy0.130.0833.3333.36-0.04-0.03
OklahomaB120.070.0877.7867.900.040.03
Little RockSB0.120.0822.2225.26-0.07-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.120.0844.4446.64-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0847.0652.51-0.000.00
IonaMAAC0.130.0863.1666.880.030.03
ArizonaP120.130.0880.0078.980.080.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.130.0877.7871.650.070.04
MississippiSEC0.130.0852.6345.860.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.120.0818.7536.76-0.07-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.130.0868.4254.090.050.01
MonmouthMAAC0.130.0827.7840.88-0.06-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.130.0850.0051.650.000.00
CaliforniaP120.060.0836.8431.12-0.01-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.180.0861.1151.900.040.00
Georgia St.SB0.060.0866.6765.530.020.02
CreightonBE0.060.0875.0070.690.030.03
UC IrvineBW0.120.0830.0039.93-0.05-0.02
MinnesotaB100.180.0863.6457.640.050.01
Ohio St.B100.060.0880.9576.520.040.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.120.0831.5830.00-0.04-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.120.0883.3381.410.080.05
TexasB120.060.0863.1657.620.020.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0629.4133.22-0.03-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.070.060.003.12-0.07-0.06
MontanaBSky0.000.0670.5973.140.000.03
UMKCWAC0.070.0621.0524.71-0.04-0.03
BrownIvy0.000.0650.0045.130.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0620.0032.26-0.04-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.0621.4326.210.00-0.03
DePaulBE0.070.0642.1134.32-0.01-0.02
HartfordAE0.070.0652.6346.880.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0628.5731.27-0.03-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.070.0680.0075.050.040.03
PennIvy0.070.0664.7162.780.020.01
YaleIvy0.000.0641.1847.510.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.130.0621.0523.50-0.08-0.03
ButlerBE0.140.0666.6763.070.050.01
KentuckySEC0.070.0673.6867.950.030.02
BelmontOVC0.060.0671.4374.650.030.03
DrakeMVC0.060.0655.0049.070.01-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0652.6347.360.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.130.0644.4446.10-0.01-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0670.0068.420.030.02
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0630.0032.53-0.03-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0657.1460.400.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0652.6350.250.000.00
TulsaAmer0.130.0655.0053.290.010.00
UCLAP120.070.0665.0062.040.020.01
AkronMAC0.130.0547.0644.91-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.070.0545.0043.49-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.120.0557.8966.250.020.02
MissouriSEC0.070.0566.6763.200.020.01
OregonP120.130.0565.0063.830.040.01
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0533.3337.22-0.02-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0545.0049.27-0.01-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.060.0527.7838.13-0.03-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0566.6765.360.000.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0583.3381.350.040.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0526.6729.04-0.03-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0545.0048.560.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.060.0561.1160.790.010.01
New HampshireAE0.120.0529.4138.15-0.05-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.120.0538.8935.35-0.03-0.02
AuburnSEC0.060.0589.4777.030.050.03
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0538.8944.14-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.060.0545.0041.35-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0510.5327.310.00-0.02
IUPUIHorz0.000.0527.7829.840.00-0.02
La SalleA100.060.0540.0042.72-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.060.0561.1153.160.010.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0547.3748.170.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.060.0521.0521.99-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0572.2258.940.030.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0544.4448.91-0.01-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.120.0566.6768.700.040.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0550.0055.650.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.0594.7490.310.000.04
DukeACC0.070.0389.4785.190.050.02
James MadisonCAA0.070.0325.0028.25-0.04-0.01
UTSACUSA0.070.0341.1839.65-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0323.5332.62-0.04-0.01
LafayettePat0.070.0322.2227.51-0.04-0.01
LehighPat0.070.0338.8944.75-0.02-0.00
Miami FLACC0.070.0376.4769.020.040.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0372.2274.700.030.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0320.0028.72-0.04-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0342.1145.97-0.01-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.060.0370.5975.930.030.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.037.1414.82-0.06-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0327.7831.12-0.03-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0345.0041.34-0.01-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.060.0363.1663.180.020.01
RiceCUSA0.060.0311.1117.69-0.05-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.060.0350.0045.900.00-0.00
TroySB0.060.0335.2942.76-0.02-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0368.4264.200.000.01
ArmyPat0.060.0361.1160.530.010.01
BaylorB120.060.0361.1156.090.010.00
BuffaloMAC0.060.0372.2274.900.030.01
ClemsonACC0.060.0384.2173.210.040.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0320.0023.36-0.03-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0358.8261.440.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0331.5829.060.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.060.0326.3230.43-0.03-0.01
KansasB120.060.0384.2179.740.040.02
Kent St.MAC0.060.0344.4444.86-0.01-0.00
LipscombASun0.060.0352.9459.360.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0352.6355.290.000.00
MaineAE0.060.0310.5314.86-0.05-0.02
MemphisAmer0.060.0365.0058.490.020.00
MercerSC0.060.0344.4454.89-0.010.00
OaklandHorz0.060.0361.9065.160.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.060.0370.0060.460.020.01
RichmondA100.000.0331.5834.350.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.060.0365.0065.370.020.01
Saint LouisA100.060.0347.3746.91-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.060.0327.7832.66-0.03-0.01
SienaMAAC0.060.0330.0031.69-0.02-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0352.9455.040.000.00
SyracuseACC0.060.0368.4261.270.020.01
TCUB120.060.0373.6865.590.030.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0372.2268.920.000.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0366.6767.690.020.01
UABCUSA0.060.0361.1164.130.010.01
UCFAmer0.060.0368.4260.880.020.01
UMass LowellAE0.060.0329.4130.67-0.02-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0336.8435.55-0.02-0.01
VCUA100.000.0360.0059.690.000.01