live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


BYU

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:78.8
Current RPI:184
Expected SOS:122
Current SOS:205
Current Record:2-1
Expected Record:21-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-2
Current OOC Record:2-1
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:82
Expected OOC SOS:122



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-313.50.04%
27-421.20.23%
26-527.60.86%
25-635.43.14%
24-742.46.89%
23-852.512.38%
22-962.316.35%
21-1074.619.07%
20-1187.816.02%
19-12102.711.94%
18-13118.67.00%
17-14136.63.61%
16-15153.61.59%
15-16168.30.63%
14-17184.80.16%
13-18203.60.05%
12-19221.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for BYU.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Mississippi Valley St. (338.1)SWACH91-61W100%0.0
11-15Princeton (162.6)IvyA56-65W100%0.0
11-18UT Arlington (69.5)SBH75-89L0%0.0
11-21Niagara (180.5)MAACH0-086%12.9
11-24Alabama (33.7)SECN0-033%-5.3
11-25Massachusetts (194.1)A10N0-074%7.7
11-29Utah Valley (141.8)WACA0-065%4.6
12-2Utah St. (127.2)MWCA0-056%1.9
12-6Illinois St. (95.4)MVCH0-071%6.6
12-9Weber St. (168.8)BSkyN0-074%7.7
12-16Utah (45.4)P12H0-046%-1.2
12-21Idaho St. (322.1)BSkyH0-097%21.9
12-23Texas Southern (177.8)SWACH0-088%14.1
12-28Portland (268.0)WCCH0-092%17.0
12-30Saint Mary's (24.7)WCCH0-033%-5.2
1-4San Francisco (133.9)WCCA0-055%1.6
1-6Pacific (229.0)WCCA0-075%8.1
1-11Pepperdine (239.9)WCCH0-090%15.1
1-13Santa Clara (219.0)WCCA0-069%6.1
1-18Loyola Marymount (246.0)WCCH0-091%16.0
1-20San Diego (158.1)WCCH0-080%10.2
1-25Saint Mary's (24.7)WCCA0-018%-11.2
1-27Pacific (229.0)WCCH0-088%14.1
2-1Loyola Marymount (246.0)WCCA0-080%10.0
2-3Gonzaga (23.2)WCCA0-015%-12.3
2-8Santa Clara (219.0)WCCH0-084%12.1
2-10San Francisco (133.9)WCCH0-074%7.6
2-15Pepperdine (239.9)WCCA0-078%9.1
2-17San Diego (158.1)WCCA0-064%4.2
2-22Portland (268.0)WCCA0-082%11.0
2-24Gonzaga (23.2)WCCH0-030%-6.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

BYU's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


BYU's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  BYU.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BYUWCC34.7226.3958.8265.516.138.19
GonzagaWCC0.004.19100.0086.830.003.09
PepperdineWCC0.004.160.0033.110.00-1.41
Loyola MarymountWCC4.174.1650.0036.280.00-1.14
PacificWCC0.004.140.0034.590.00-1.28
San FranciscoWCC0.004.1466.6757.900.000.65
Saint Mary'sWCC0.004.14100.0089.380.003.26
San DiegoWCC0.004.14100.0054.800.000.40
Santa ClaraWCC0.004.130.0043.870.00-0.51
PortlandWCC0.004.120.0031.110.00-1.56
Weber St.BSky0.001.7966.6767.620.000.63
Utah St.MWC2.781.7550.0050.410.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC16.671.720.0019.60-16.67-1.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.001.720.0051.640.000.06
Idaho St.BSky0.001.700.0029.130.00-0.71
UT ArlingtonSB16.671.70100.0070.5516.670.70
Utah ValleyWAC0.001.6750.0061.410.000.38
UtahP122.781.67100.0067.652.780.59
AlabamaSEC0.001.64100.0061.130.000.37
MassachusettsA100.001.6450.0042.690.00-0.24
NiagaraMAAC0.001.6450.0053.140.000.10
Illinois St.MVC0.001.6133.3352.850.000.09
PrincetonIvy16.671.610.0053.05-16.670.10
Portland St.BSky0.000.33100.0048.130.00-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.320.0021.010.00-0.18
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.290.0033.930.00-0.09
NevadaMWC0.000.25100.0078.910.000.14
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.250.0023.910.00-0.13
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.240.0024.440.00-0.12
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.230.0035.130.00-0.07
North DakotaBSky0.000.2166.6746.830.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.2133.3350.150.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.20100.0066.490.000.07
UC RiversideBW0.000.2033.3331.840.00-0.07
Arizona St.P120.000.19100.0062.760.000.05
UC DavisBW0.000.1966.6757.400.000.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.1833.3338.880.00-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.000.1833.3327.100.00-0.08
Cal PolyBW0.000.1833.3338.050.00-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1750.0069.320.000.07
WashingtonP120.000.1750.0046.810.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.1733.3350.220.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.160.0022.610.00-0.09
USCP120.000.15100.0073.190.000.07
ValparaisoMVC0.000.14100.0059.760.000.03
HarvardIvy0.000.1433.3354.200.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1433.3351.560.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.14100.0075.130.000.07
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1450.0062.630.000.03
StanfordP120.000.1475.0049.860.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1433.3359.680.000.03
UNLVMWC0.000.13100.0064.720.000.04
WyomingMWC0.000.13100.0057.360.000.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.130.0033.850.00-0.04
IdahoBSky0.000.1250.0060.380.000.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.120.0040.830.00-0.02
Washington St.P120.000.11100.0041.780.00-0.02
ColoradoP120.000.11100.0052.860.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.110.0029.630.00-0.05
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1150.0051.070.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.11100.0071.010.000.05
Texas St.SB0.000.1133.3346.090.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.1166.6762.150.000.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.11100.0044.740.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1133.3346.330.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.11100.0047.670.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.100.0026.180.00-0.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.100.0037.120.00-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.100.0032.770.00-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.100.0044.500.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.100.0044.630.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0933.3334.680.00-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.000.0933.3350.350.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0950.0035.330.00-0.03
Oregon St.P120.000.0966.6742.260.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0966.6763.220.000.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0850.0060.060.000.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0825.0059.770.000.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0866.6759.740.000.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0866.6740.170.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.08100.0083.700.000.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.08100.0057.270.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.08100.0053.790.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.08100.0059.540.000.02
CreightonBE0.000.08100.0067.460.000.03
Little RockSB0.000.080.0037.050.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0850.0036.640.00-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA102.780.0866.6759.540.930.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.080.0042.850.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0833.3353.300.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0850.0065.140.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.08100.0059.870.000.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0875.0058.930.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0825.0032.490.00-0.03
MinnesotaB100.000.08100.0071.700.000.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.0850.0073.230.000.04
BrownIvy0.000.06100.0039.270.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0633.3350.350.000.00
HartfordAE0.000.0633.3326.430.00-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.06100.0078.160.000.03
PennIvy0.000.0633.3349.350.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.000.0625.0054.930.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0033.700.00-0.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0650.0060.130.000.01
ButlerBE2.780.0675.0052.361.390.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.060.0042.670.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.007.670.00-0.05
UMKCWAC0.000.060.0026.150.00-0.03
HawaiiBW0.000.06100.0053.460.000.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0675.0071.560.000.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0675.0048.770.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.000.0650.0035.740.00-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.06100.0051.900.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.060.0023.170.00-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0666.6763.230.000.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.06100.0059.250.000.01
UCLAP120.000.06100.0064.910.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0633.3343.810.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6745.880.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.060.0027.250.00-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0666.6773.200.000.03
KentuckySEC0.000.0675.0071.830.000.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.060.0028.720.00-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0633.3347.670.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.06100.0064.470.000.02
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0046.080.00-0.00
IUPUIHorz0.000.060.0032.200.00-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0650.0059.190.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.060.0036.070.00-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.060.0064.600.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0082.960.000.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3346.880.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0566.6757.890.000.01
OregonP120.000.05100.0076.200.000.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.050.0021.380.00-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.050.0035.610.00-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0566.6754.900.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.05100.0055.280.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.050.0023.830.00-0.03
New HampshireAE0.000.050.0048.110.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0550.0050.570.000.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0550.0046.150.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0533.3348.640.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0550.0054.450.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0566.6750.670.000.00
FloridaSEC0.000.05100.0080.230.000.03
George MasonA100.000.0575.0048.930.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.05100.0053.240.000.00
La SalleA100.000.0575.0051.210.000.00
LSUSEC0.000.05100.0046.080.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.05100.0051.080.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.030.0044.950.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.030.0031.810.00-0.01
LafayettePat0.000.030.0021.970.00-0.02
LehighPat0.000.0366.6751.580.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0074.500.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0366.6768.320.000.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0083.580.000.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.030.0047.180.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0333.3338.350.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0333.3335.310.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0350.0048.410.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0066.530.000.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0022.920.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0350.0048.690.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0333.3342.010.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0333.3336.410.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0333.3345.780.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.0333.3346.410.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.000.0350.0053.620.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.03100.0061.010.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0333.3333.580.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0366.6742.170.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0350.0049.480.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0366.6755.210.000.00
SienaMAAC0.000.030.0037.060.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.03100.0060.370.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0071.180.000.01
BaylorB120.000.03100.0061.110.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.03100.0054.960.000.00
DavidsonA100.000.03100.0070.080.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0333.3336.170.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.03100.0048.790.00-0.00
KansasB120.000.03100.0082.910.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.03100.0066.010.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.0333.3349.220.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.03100.0063.590.000.01
MaineAE0.000.030.0013.450.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0350.0050.670.000.00
MercerSC0.000.0375.0076.250.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0366.6765.630.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.03100.0060.070.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0375.0064.570.000.01
RichmondA100.000.030.0030.280.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0366.6753.390.000.00
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3347.970.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.030.0044.130.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.000.03100.0062.240.000.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0061.150.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.03100.0048.350.00-0.00
TexasB120.000.03100.0063.830.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.03100.0064.120.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.03100.0078.750.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.03100.0061.780.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0350.0042.730.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0366.6749.990.00-0.00
VCUA100.000.0366.6766.590.000.01