live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Auburn

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:15.0
Current RPI:15
Expected SOS:47
Current SOS:47
Current Record:25-7
Expected Record:25-7
Current Conf Record:13-6
Expected Conf Record:13-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:13
Expected OOC SOS:75



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-715.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Auburn.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Norfolk St. (266.0)MEACH102-74W100%0.0
11-16Indiana St. (184.0)MVCN64-83W100%0.0
11-17Temple (52.0)AmerN88-74L0%0.0
11-19Hofstra (121.0)CAAN78-89W100%0.0
11-24Winthrop (173.0)BSthH119-85W100%0.0
11-29Dayton (146.0)A10A60-73W100%0.0
12-3George Mason (201.0)A10H79-63W100%0.0
12-6Gardner Webb (244.0)BSthH80-55W100%0.0
12-9UAB (155.0)CUSAH85-80W100%0.0
12-16Middle Tennessee (33.0)CUSAN76-70W100%0.0
12-19Murray St. (48.0)OVCA77-81W100%0.0
12-23Connecticut (123.0)AmerH89-64W100%0.0
12-30Cornell (248.0)IvyH98-77W100%0.0
1-2Tennessee (8.0)SECA84-94W100%0.0
1-6Arkansas (30.0)SECH88-77W100%0.0
1-9Mississippi (141.0)SECH85-70W100%0.0
1-13Mississippi St. (73.0)SECA68-76W100%0.0
1-17Alabama (42.0)SECA76-71L0%0.0
1-20Georgia (79.0)SECH79-65W100%0.0
1-24Missouri (43.0)SECA73-91W100%0.0
1-27LSU (95.0)SECH95-70W100%0.0
1-30Mississippi (141.0)SECA70-79W100%0.0
2-3Vanderbilt (132.0)SECH93-81W100%0.0
2-7Texas A&M (29.0)SECH80-81L0%0.0
2-10Georgia (79.0)SECA61-78W100%0.0
2-14Kentucky (10.0)SECH76-66W100%0.0
2-17South Carolina (90.0)SECA84-75L0%0.0
2-21Alabama (42.0)SECH90-71W100%0.0
2-24Florida (46.0)SECA72-66L0%0.0
2-27Arkansas (30.0)SECA91-82L0%0.0
3-3South Carolina (90.0)SECH79-70W100%0.0
3-9Alabama (42.0)SECN63-81L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Auburn's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Auburn's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Auburn.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AuburnSEC26.1226.1278.9978.9915.1415.14
AlabamaSEC5.225.2254.8454.840.510.51
GeorgiaSEC3.783.7858.0658.060.610.61
ArkansasSEC3.783.7868.7568.751.421.42
South CarolinaSEC3.773.7750.0050.000.000.00
MississippiSEC3.723.7240.0040.00-0.74-0.74
Mississippi St.SEC2.282.2867.7467.740.810.81
TennesseeSEC2.282.2878.1278.121.281.28
FloridaSEC2.282.2861.2961.290.510.51
KentuckySEC2.262.2672.7372.731.031.03
Texas A&MSEC2.252.2561.2961.290.510.51
LSUSEC2.232.2356.6756.670.300.30
MissouriSEC2.212.2163.3363.330.590.59
VanderbiltSEC2.192.1938.7138.71-0.49-0.49
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.711.7179.3179.311.001.00
TempleAmer1.711.7151.6151.610.060.06
WinthropBSth1.691.6959.2659.260.310.31
Gardner WebbBSth1.671.6739.2939.29-0.36-0.36
ConnecticutAmer1.661.6645.1645.16-0.16-0.16
DaytonA101.641.6446.6746.67-0.11-0.11
UABCUSA1.611.6160.0060.000.320.32
Murray St.OVC1.591.5985.7185.711.131.13
George MasonA101.591.5950.0050.000.000.00
HofstraCAA1.591.5962.0762.070.380.38
CornellIvy1.561.5642.3142.31-0.24-0.24
Indiana St.MVC1.561.5639.2939.29-0.33-0.33
Norfolk St.MEAC1.561.5644.8344.83-0.16-0.16
UCFAmer0.220.2259.3859.380.040.04
MassachusettsA100.220.2239.3939.39-0.05-0.05
Illinois St.MVC0.210.2153.1253.120.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.200.2048.3948.39-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.190.1961.7661.760.050.05
RadfordBSth0.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.150.1569.7069.700.060.06
Old DominionCUSA0.150.1578.1278.120.090.09
Southern MissCUSA0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
VCUA100.150.1554.5554.550.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.150.1588.2488.240.110.11
HoustonAmer0.140.1478.7978.790.080.08
Rhode IslandA100.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
LongwoodBSth0.140.1413.3313.33-0.10-0.10
UNC AshevilleBSth0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
High PointBSth0.130.1340.7440.74-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
ClemsonACC0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
Wichita St.Amer0.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
ArizonaP120.120.1279.4179.410.070.07
TexasB120.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
MinnesotaB100.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
HarvardIvy0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
CampbellBSth0.110.1146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
PennIvy0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
BelmontOVC0.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
DuquesneA100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
BradleyMVC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Saint LouisA100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
FIUCUSA0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.100.1017.2417.24-0.07-0.07
UTEPCUSA0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.100.1088.2488.240.080.08
RichmondA100.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
George WashingtonA100.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.1030.7730.77-0.04-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.099.689.68-0.08-0.08
TroySB0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.090.0968.9768.970.040.04
MercerSC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0826.9226.92-0.04-0.04
DelawareCAA0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
ElonCAA0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
Green BayHorz0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
USCP120.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0780.0080.000.040.04
USC UpstateASun0.070.0710.7110.71-0.06-0.06
Georgia St.SB0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
UtahP120.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
West VirginiaB120.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
MarquetteBE0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0784.8584.850.050.05
Virginia TechACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
SamfordSC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.070.0771.4371.430.030.03
BYUWCC0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
BrownIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
YaleIvy0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoMVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
ColgatePat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
FurmanSC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0515.6215.62-0.03-0.03
Little RockSB0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
WagnerNEC0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
DavidsonA100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
FordhamA100.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
WoffordSC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Penn St.B100.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
KansasB120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
BryantNEC0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.036.676.67-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
SienaMAAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.030.0379.4179.410.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0312.5012.50-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
BaylorB120.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0212.5012.50-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
New HampshireAE0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
OregonP120.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.020.0216.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
StanfordP120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
TCUB120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.020.0293.9493.940.020.02
WisconsinB100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
PurdueB100.020.0282.3582.350.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Fort WayneSum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UCLAP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
VermontAE0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01