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Through games of Dec 17, 2014.


Auburn

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:192.5
Current RPI:153
Expected SOS:63
Current SOS:70
Current Record:4-5
Expected Record:11-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-1
Current OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:192
Expected OOC SOS:124



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1266.00.02%
17-1384.70.10%
16-1496.20.39%
15-15114.31.71%
14-16132.14.70%
13-17149.69.82%
12-18168.115.15%
11-19186.720.37%
10-20205.220.20%
9-21223.415.65%
8-22240.57.91%
7-23254.93.14%
6-24271.70.72%
5-25279.70.11%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Auburn.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Milwaukee (259.4)HorzH83-73W100%0.0
11-17Colorado (69.0)P12A90-59L0%0.0
11-21Louisiana Lafayette (184.9)SBH105-80W100%0.0
11-24Tulsa (100.4)AmerN53-35L0%0.0
11-26Oregon St. (162.8)P12N71-69W100%0.0
12-3Texas Tech (89.8)B12A46-44L0%0.0
12-5Coastal Carolina (137.4)BSthH54-58L0%0.0
12-14Clemson (162.8)ACCA72-61L0%0.0
12-17Winthrop (252.4)BSthH80-62W100%0.0
12-20Xavier (21.6)BEH0-019%-10.3
12-23Texas Southern (226.1)SWACH0-078%9.2
12-29Middle Tennessee (203.4)CUSAH0-071%6.6
1-6Vanderbilt (87.7)SECA0-014%-12.8
1-10Missouri (179.3)SECH0-067%5.2
1-15Florida (39.8)SECA0-06%-18.8
1-17South Carolina (43.3)SECH0-022%-9.2
1-21Mississippi St. (216.0)SECH0-064%4.4
1-24Alabama (75.6)SECA0-015%-12.2
1-27Texas A&M (58.9)SECH0-032%-5.5
1-31Tennessee (131.7)SECA0-024%-8.2
2-5LSU (73.0)SECA0-015%-12.1
2-7Mississippi (99.2)SECH0-046%-1.2
2-10Arkansas (42.8)SECH0-027%-7.3
2-14Georgia (55.7)SECA0-011%-14.8
2-17Alabama (75.6)SECH0-039%-3.4
2-21Kentucky (1.7)SECA0-00%-32.5
2-24LSU (73.0)SECH0-039%-3.4
2-28Texas A&M (58.9)SECA0-011%-14.2
3-3Missouri (179.3)SECA0-038%-3.6
3-7Georgia (55.7)SECH0-031%-6.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Auburn's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Auburn's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Auburn.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AuburnSEC28.1226.1240.0030.32-5.62-10.28
LSUSEC0.623.9777.7861.650.340.92
Texas A&MSEC0.003.9777.7864.430.001.14
AlabamaSEC0.003.9466.6754.410.000.35
MissouriSEC0.003.9444.4430.52-0.00-1.53
GeorgiaSEC0.313.9162.5058.030.080.63
ArkansasSEC0.312.3677.7871.790.171.03
MississippiSEC0.002.3666.6752.450.000.12
KentuckySEC0.002.36100.0094.500.002.10
South CarolinaSEC0.002.3562.5063.860.000.65
FloridaSEC0.002.3560.0063.880.000.65
Mississippi St.SEC0.352.3350.0039.450.00-0.49
VanderbiltSEC0.002.3375.0059.720.000.45
TennesseeSEC0.002.3350.0045.140.00-0.23
ClemsonACC5.951.8162.5043.511.49-0.23
XavierBE0.001.7880.0070.690.000.74
ColoradoP125.561.7562.5056.011.390.21
WinthropBSth5.861.7333.3349.07-1.95-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth5.561.7360.0069.441.110.67
Louisiana LafayetteSB6.141.7350.0054.000.000.14
Oregon St.P125.561.7285.7151.493.970.05
MilwaukeeHorz5.951.7237.5035.83-1.49-0.49
Texas SouthernSWAC0.001.7211.1145.73-0.00-0.15
Texas TechB125.561.7287.5054.214.170.14
TulsaAmer5.951.7055.5655.140.660.17
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.001.6744.4445.56-0.00-0.15
Oklahoma St.B120.930.2588.8963.230.730.07
UCLAP120.460.2372.7357.410.210.03
Arizona St.P120.000.2360.0054.270.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.2260.0037.340.00-0.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.310.2137.5050.07-0.080.00
BaylorB120.000.1990.0073.960.000.09
ArizonaP120.000.17100.0080.830.000.11
Oral RobertsSum1.330.1744.4444.76-0.15-0.02
Iowa St.B120.000.1788.8964.130.000.05
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1650.0032.540.00-0.06
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1614.2945.52-0.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.310.1662.5056.250.080.02
DePaulBE0.310.1466.6738.970.10-0.03
TroySB0.000.1433.3340.58-0.00-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.310.140.0037.61-0.31-0.03
OklahomaB120.280.1477.7867.330.150.05
Georgia TechACC0.000.1477.7851.090.000.00
MercerSC0.000.1437.5041.84-0.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.280.1472.7351.600.130.00
KansasB120.000.1488.8969.540.000.05
UABCUSA0.000.1433.3338.24-0.00-0.03
CampbellBSth0.000.1325.0044.80-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.1325.0035.05-0.00-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.000.1320.0026.68-0.00-0.06
PresbyterianBSth0.000.130.008.71-0.00-0.11
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1242.8650.31-0.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.460.1233.3345.26-0.15-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.790.1218.1827.98-0.51-0.05
USCP120.000.1260.0037.230.00-0.03
WashingtonP120.000.12100.0072.030.000.05
Washington St.P120.000.1240.0029.07-0.00-0.05
ChattanoogaSC0.460.1244.4451.18-0.050.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1242.8632.44-0.00-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1280.0069.840.000.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1245.4544.47-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.1166.6759.200.000.02
LipscombASun0.310.1125.0042.50-0.15-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.1150.0048.630.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.400.1125.0048.84-0.20-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.1170.0071.340.000.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1150.0052.290.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1122.2245.85-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.350.1110.0018.04-0.28-0.07
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1177.7869.420.000.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.1150.0037.400.00-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.1150.0056.370.000.01
TCUB120.000.11100.0066.280.000.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1150.0044.640.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.1177.7869.890.000.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1150.0074.090.000.05
Seton HallBE0.000.1188.8963.530.000.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1144.4447.39-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.1190.0066.760.000.04
SouthernSWAC0.000.110.0034.38-0.00-0.03
RadfordBSth0.000.1050.0055.940.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC1.230.0920.0029.28-0.74-0.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.280.0942.8638.50-0.04-0.02
UtahP120.000.0977.7879.670.000.05
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0933.3345.72-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0930.0032.16-0.00-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.090.0037.67-0.00-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0955.5654.760.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.400.0970.0066.610.160.03
UMKCWAC0.310.0922.2242.15-0.17-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0987.5054.920.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0857.1456.210.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0844.4456.92-0.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.280.0887.5085.210.210.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.400.0810.0041.11-0.32-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0881.8264.060.000.02
PurdueB100.000.0872.7363.690.000.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.080.0016.94-0.00-0.06
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0850.0049.770.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.350.080.008.81-0.35-0.07
GonzagaWCC0.000.0890.0091.070.000.07
North TexasCUSA0.000.0842.8636.42-0.00-0.02
TexasB120.000.0890.0081.760.000.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0820.0038.33-0.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.000.0880.0072.470.000.04
MarquetteBE0.000.0855.5647.640.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0888.8981.120.000.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.310.080.0039.62-0.31-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.0870.0071.470.000.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0840.0050.48-0.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0850.0038.030.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0833.3363.36-0.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0866.6759.320.000.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.0872.7352.880.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.400.0671.4364.070.170.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0637.5048.87-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.000.0644.4449.46-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0660.0061.810.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0662.5071.700.000.03
Green BayHorz0.000.0675.0078.710.000.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0618.1821.69-0.00-0.03
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0050.360.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0655.5653.800.000.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0690.0066.470.000.02
StanfordP120.000.0675.0058.750.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.620.0657.1461.280.090.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0637.5038.59-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0671.4348.780.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0655.5660.050.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0660.0053.790.000.00
IUPUISum0.310.0620.0026.18-0.19-0.03
AkronMAC0.000.0660.0056.780.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0655.5665.660.000.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0625.0038.24-0.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.590.0637.5040.12-0.15-0.01
RiceCUSA0.350.0616.6725.04-0.23-0.03
ElonCAA0.000.0637.5048.14-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0650.0054.660.000.01
HartfordAE0.000.0650.0050.820.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.0672.7365.950.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0677.7864.890.000.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0670.0058.440.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0038.50-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0690.9171.750.000.02
RutgersB100.310.0660.0034.930.06-0.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0660.0034.010.00-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0637.5055.05-0.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0666.6751.310.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0510.0018.36-0.00-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.05100.0085.210.000.04
Miami FLACC0.000.0590.0075.760.000.03
Murray St.OVC0.000.0555.5661.640.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0566.6772.280.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0555.5648.830.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.000.0570.0064.820.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.050.0032.05-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.050.0028.64-0.00-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0540.0049.99-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0560.0055.530.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0587.5064.520.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.05100.0082.310.000.03
Weber St.BSky0.000.0528.5742.24-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0017.71-0.00-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.400.0355.5638.460.04-0.01
MarylandB100.400.0390.9167.700.320.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0311.1143.93-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.310.03100.0077.970.310.02
DrexelCAA0.310.0325.0037.61-0.15-0.01
MontanaBSky0.310.0325.0051.40-0.150.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.310.0328.5756.75-0.130.00
San FranciscoWCC0.310.0344.4449.01-0.03-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0024.33-0.00-0.02
South DakotaSum0.000.0320.0039.57-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.310.0390.9188.430.250.02
WyomingMWC0.310.0377.7873.090.170.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.280.0316.6719.82-0.19-0.02
CornellIvy0.000.0355.5648.590.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0375.0074.350.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0023.23-0.00-0.02
PortlandWCC0.350.0366.6748.960.12-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0337.5045.89-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0337.5064.54-0.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.0355.5635.040.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0360.0062.430.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0366.6741.940.00-0.00
DukeACC0.000.03100.0087.440.000.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.310.030.0012.28-0.31-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.310.0330.0029.48-0.12-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0350.0049.770.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0371.4359.600.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.310.0333.3327.49-0.10-0.01
NevadaMWC0.310.0312.5024.75-0.23-0.01
PennIvy0.000.0337.5032.89-0.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6752.270.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0330.0039.75-0.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0350.0041.530.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6757.600.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0360.0064.580.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0350.0053.110.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0342.8637.04-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0370.0071.520.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0085.770.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0355.5638.100.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0322.2230.96-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0333.3341.58-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0375.0069.340.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0362.5065.190.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0340.0046.88-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0342.8655.67-0.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6776.500.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0375.0071.470.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0336.3644.37-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.000.0380.0057.470.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0366.6772.380.000.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0314.2934.33-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0372.7373.120.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0325.0027.83-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0336.3664.92-0.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0354.5557.610.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0366.6777.710.000.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0333.3340.60-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0357.1456.560.000.00