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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Auburn

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:96.0
Current RPI:36
Expected SOS:74
Current SOS:61
Current Record:5-1
Expected Record:17-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:5-1
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:70
Expected OOC SOS:120



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-518.00.01%
24-722.90.18%
23-829.30.59%
22-936.81.63%
21-1045.13.89%
20-1154.88.18%
19-1267.412.41%
18-1380.115.79%
17-1494.917.85%
16-15110.215.21%
15-16126.011.87%
14-17143.76.98%
13-18162.53.59%
12-19179.81.23%
11-20204.90.44%
10-21208.90.11%
9-22230.30.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Auburn.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11North Florida (270.2)ASunH83-66W100%0.0
11-14Georgia St. (75.2)SBH83-65W100%0.0
11-17Eastern Kentucky (174.6)OVCH85-64W100%0.0
11-22Texas Tech (68.9)B12N67-65W100%0.0
11-23Purdue (28.6)B10N96-71L0%0.0
11-29USC Upstate (277.8)ASunH90-83W100%0.0
12-3UAB (128.6)CUSAA0-050%0.0
12-12Boston College (245.5)ACCN0-080%9.9
12-15Coastal Carolina (213.3)SBH0-085%12.4
12-18Mercer (163.6)SCH0-080%10.3
12-21Oklahoma (70.0)B12N0-033%-5.3
12-23Connecticut (143.2)AmerA0-051%0.2
12-29Georgia (65.1)SECH0-051%0.3
1-4Vanderbilt (72.4)SECA0-034%-5.1
1-7Mississippi (134.5)SECH0-070%6.4
1-10Missouri (167.3)SECA0-047%-1.0
1-14Kentucky (7.3)SECA0-05%-19.4
1-18LSU (94.2)SECH0-063%4.0
1-21Alabama (102.9)SECH0-055%1.5
1-24South Carolina (17.4)SECA0-014%-12.9
1-28TCU (53.5)B12A0-025%-8.2
1-31Tennessee (165.2)SECH0-073%7.3
2-4Alabama (102.9)SECA0-035%-4.7
2-7Mississippi St. (171.1)SECH0-077%8.8
2-11Mississippi (134.5)SECA0-051%0.2
2-14Florida (9.6)SECH0-025%-8.2
2-18Texas A&M (42.0)SECA0-020%-10.2
2-21LSU (94.2)SECA0-043%-2.1
2-25Arkansas (54.3)SECH0-048%-0.5
3-1Georgia (65.1)SECA0-031%-5.8
3-4Missouri (167.3)SECH0-067%5.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Auburn's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Auburn's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Auburn.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AuburnSEC28.9126.1077.2753.7915.771.98
AlabamaSEC0.003.9066.6756.090.000.47
LSUSEC0.603.8471.4349.970.26-0.00
MissouriSEC0.003.8150.0046.120.00-0.30
MississippiSEC0.003.7971.4346.460.00-0.27
GeorgiaSEC0.003.7866.6754.070.000.31
FloridaSEC0.602.3187.5075.320.451.17
Mississippi St.SEC0.002.3171.4343.700.00-0.29
ArkansasSEC0.002.2883.3363.210.000.60
South CarolinaSEC0.002.25100.0080.600.001.38
Texas A&MSEC0.002.2566.6765.600.000.70
KentuckySEC0.002.23100.0085.960.001.60
TennesseeSEC0.002.2225.0034.72-0.00-0.68
VanderbiltSEC0.002.2057.1448.280.00-0.08
North FloridaASun8.331.8116.6732.93-5.56-0.62
Texas TechB128.931.80100.0065.918.930.57
Georgia St.SB9.521.7575.0069.914.760.70
OklahomaB120.001.7483.3351.400.000.05
USC UpstateASun8.331.7340.0039.67-1.67-0.36
Coastal CarolinaSB0.001.7228.5740.31-0.00-0.33
TCUB120.001.72100.0058.930.000.31
Eastern KentuckyOVC9.761.6750.0048.450.00-0.05
ConnecticutAmer0.001.6433.3338.38-0.00-0.38
PurdueB109.171.6466.6773.603.060.77
MercerSC0.001.6450.0054.240.000.14
Boston CollegeACC0.001.6150.0027.470.00-0.73
UABCUSA0.001.6157.1462.350.000.40
TexasB120.000.3250.0036.240.00-0.09
KansasB120.000.2785.7176.170.000.14
ClemsonACC0.000.2266.6753.460.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.2183.3356.560.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.2185.7155.890.000.03
BaylorB120.000.21100.0074.460.000.10
LipscombASun0.000.2014.2933.07-0.00-0.07
MemphisAmer0.000.1985.7159.740.000.04
West VirginiaB120.000.1983.3380.550.000.11
Iowa St.B120.000.1971.4368.970.000.07
NJITASun1.430.1742.8650.32-0.200.00
StetsonASun0.000.1728.5728.26-0.00-0.08
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1785.7168.390.000.06
WoffordSC0.000.160.0033.58-0.00-0.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1685.7173.010.000.07
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1557.1459.480.000.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1528.5730.29-0.00-0.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1550.0071.330.000.06
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1450.0045.410.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1420.0036.00-0.00-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1466.6761.340.000.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.1483.3361.150.000.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.690.1425.0038.72-0.35-0.03
SyracuseACC0.000.1466.6770.140.000.06
ChattanoogaSC0.000.1466.6769.810.000.05
FurmanSC0.000.1420.0049.38-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.1483.3376.370.000.07
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.1466.6775.370.000.07
Western KentuckyCUSA0.600.1442.8634.17-0.09-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.130.0034.01-0.00-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.000.1371.4352.370.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.1385.7162.920.000.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1157.1447.320.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.1133.3332.23-0.00-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.000.1150.0052.330.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.690.1162.5056.500.170.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.690.1150.0064.840.000.03
FIUCUSA0.000.1116.6733.69-0.00-0.04
Little RockSB0.000.1160.0057.900.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1157.1464.940.000.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.110.0013.30-0.00-0.08
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1166.6765.810.000.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1183.3380.700.000.07
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1120.0041.93-0.00-0.02
OregonP120.000.1171.4366.730.000.04
TulaneAmer0.000.1114.2926.81-0.00-0.05
BelmontOVC0.000.1140.0061.37-0.000.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1133.3323.33-0.00-0.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.110.0038.35-0.00-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.1166.6739.720.00-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1175.0054.320.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.600.1185.7175.950.430.05
The CitadelSC0.000.0940.0027.05-0.00-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0920.0032.60-0.00-0.03
Texas St.SB0.000.0850.0043.310.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0875.0047.510.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.690.0866.6751.090.230.00
SMUAmer0.000.0857.1469.300.000.03
South FloridaAmer0.000.0866.6732.240.00-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0814.2928.66-0.00-0.04
UCFAmer0.000.0883.3374.620.000.04
Miami FLACC0.600.0871.4365.740.260.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0883.3370.360.000.03
DavidsonA100.000.0883.3368.880.000.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0850.0043.490.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0883.3359.600.000.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0883.3358.080.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.0885.7170.990.000.03
George WashingtonA100.000.0857.1444.160.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0857.1467.020.000.03
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0871.4386.030.000.06
Murray St.OVC0.000.0842.8661.90-0.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0866.6772.440.000.04
IllinoisB100.000.0857.1442.660.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0871.4363.090.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0885.7174.430.000.04
WisconsinB100.000.0875.0073.840.000.04
BradleyMVC0.000.0850.0029.280.00-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.0885.7180.010.000.05
Oral RobertsSum0.000.080.0019.30-0.00-0.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0825.0056.71-0.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0850.0061.590.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0885.7165.670.000.02
Notre DameACC0.000.08100.0075.010.000.04
Wright St.Horz1.430.0671.4355.750.610.01
GeorgetownBE0.690.0650.0047.560.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0633.3327.13-0.00-0.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0671.4356.050.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0685.7180.960.000.03
SamfordSC0.000.0657.1455.810.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0671.4363.570.000.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0666.6758.420.000.01
VMISC0.000.060.0021.15-0.00-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0616.6718.96-0.00-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0540.0041.65-0.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky1.190.0514.2929.81-0.85-0.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0585.7172.660.000.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0520.0034.39-0.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0520.0048.38-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0540.0067.95-0.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0550.0033.010.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0583.3378.430.000.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0533.3326.75-0.00-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.050.0027.77-0.00-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0525.0043.26-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0585.7178.150.000.03
WashingtonP120.000.0557.1452.630.000.00
XavierBE0.000.05100.0074.800.000.03
GonzagaWCC0.000.05100.0091.060.000.04
MichiganB100.000.0571.4366.530.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.600.0540.0030.80-0.12-0.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0585.7169.010.000.02
Seton HallBE0.000.0571.4354.520.000.00
UCLAP120.000.05100.0083.550.000.04
UTSACUSA0.000.0528.5728.46-0.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0557.1436.050.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0516.6730.27-0.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.05100.0076.650.000.03
DukeACC0.000.0587.5078.680.000.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.0585.7162.410.000.01
IndianaB100.000.0583.3375.060.000.03
IowaB100.000.0542.8644.33-0.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0514.2947.44-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0542.8637.25-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0571.4366.220.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0562.5043.960.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0557.1448.600.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0550.0046.780.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC1.190.0550.0053.560.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.600.0350.0059.670.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0325.0033.54-0.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.0320.0041.31-0.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.600.0333.3353.29-0.200.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0325.0024.28-0.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0383.3369.840.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0350.0053.530.000.00
BYUWCC0.000.0371.4368.660.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0018.22-0.00-0.02
George MasonA100.000.0357.1442.940.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.600.0328.5747.72-0.26-0.00
La SalleA100.000.0360.0051.780.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3345.60-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0333.3338.19-0.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0357.1448.240.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0333.3336.31-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0357.1440.590.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0350.0038.430.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0023.26-0.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0360.0039.200.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.600.0383.3377.170.400.02
WagnerNEC0.000.0333.3353.85-0.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0325.0053.29-0.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0314.2934.56-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0316.6735.65-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0024.25-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0350.0058.980.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0316.6743.29-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.000.0333.3341.11-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0342.8647.69-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0066.170.000.01
LehighPat0.000.0333.3367.01-0.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0371.4371.570.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0316.6740.71-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0340.0057.49-0.000.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0328.5723.76-0.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0089.040.000.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.0325.0056.92-0.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0340.0043.86-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.03100.0069.770.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0371.4349.590.00-0.00
USCP120.000.03100.0075.380.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0362.5071.630.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.0375.0067.660.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0075.690.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0333.3341.52-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0023.47-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.0337.5034.65-0.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0383.3362.080.000.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0366.6770.930.000.01
HartfordAE0.000.0312.5022.55-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.030.0043.04-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.000.0350.0051.260.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0357.1440.550.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.600.030.0038.51-0.60-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.600.030.0037.92-0.60-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0325.0024.66-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0385.7156.490.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.23-0.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.600.030.0020.01-0.60-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0312.5048.98-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.0350.0043.610.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0371.4350.570.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0061.810.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0385.7155.550.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0371.4356.280.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0383.3344.770.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0342.8638.05-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0058.600.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0337.5036.24-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0350.0046.670.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6770.740.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0316.6733.82-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0350.0054.490.000.00
VillanovaBE0.600.03100.0083.120.600.02
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0082.550.000.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.030.0022.69-0.00-0.01