Auburn

Conference:	SEC
Expected RPI:	145.0
Current RPI:	145
Expected SOS:	71
Current SOS:	71
Current Record:	15-16
Expected Record:	15-16
Current Conf Record:	5-12
Expected Conf Record:	5-12
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-0
Current OOC Record:	10-4
Expected OOC Record:	10-4
Expected OOC RPI:	113
Expected OOC SOS:	231

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
15-16	145.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Auburn.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	McNeese St. (174.0)	Slnd	H	84-62	W	100%
11-14	Kennesaw St. (331.0)	ASun	H	68-55	W	100%
11-25	Nicholls St. (298.0)	Slnd	H	78-57	W	100%
11-28	Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)	SWAC	H	72-59	W	100%
12-2	Seton Hall (68.0)	BE	A	81-59	L	0%
12-14	South Florida (52.0)	BE	H	52-40	W	100%
12-17	North Florida (180.0)	ASun	H	84-71	W	100%
12-19	Florida A&M (316.0)	MEAC	H	76-69	W	100%
12-22	Hawaii (204.0)	WAC	A	62-65	W	100%
12-23	Long Beach St. (34.0)	BW	N	43-64	L	0%
12-25	Texas El Paso (147.0)	CUSA	N	83-76	L	0%
12-30	Georgia Southern (203.0)	SC	H	78-75	W	100%
1-2	Bethune Cookman (239.0)	MEAC	H	67-41	W	100%
1-4	Florida St. (11.0)	ACC	A	85-56	L	0%
1-7	Vanderbilt (18.0)	SEC	A	65-35	L	0%
1-11	Kentucky (2.0)	SEC	H	53-68	L	0%
1-14	Mississippi (61.0)	SEC	H	69-68	W	100%
1-17	Louisiana St. (84.0)	SEC	A	65-58	L	0%
1-21	South Carolina (194.0)	SEC	H	63-52	W	100%
1-25	Arkansas (110.0)	SEC	A	56-53	L	0%
1-28	Tennessee (86.0)	SEC	A	64-49	L	0%
2-1	Georgia (101.0)	SEC	H	59-51	W	100%
2-4	Mississippi St. (75.0)	SEC	A	91-88	L	0%
2-7	Alabama (36.0)	SEC	H	50-68	L	0%
2-11	Mississippi (61.0)	SEC	A	61-54	L	0%
2-18	Mississippi St. (75.0)	SEC	H	65-55	W	100%
2-21	Florida (30.0)	SEC	A	63-47	L	0%
2-25	Arkansas (110.0)	SEC	H	71-77	L	0%
2-29	Alabama (36.0)	SEC	A	55-49	L	0%
3-3	Louisiana St. (84.0)	SEC	H	67-52	W	100%
3-8	Mississippi (61.0)	SEC	N	68-54	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Auburn's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Auburn's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Auburn.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Auburn	SEC	26.14	26.14	42.61	42.61	-3.86	-3.86
Mississippi	SEC	5.44	5.44	60.00	60.00	1.09	1.09
Louisiana St.	SEC	3.93	3.93	56.67	56.67	0.52	0.52
Alabama	SEC	3.90	3.90	63.33	63.33	1.04	1.04
Arkansas	SEC	3.87	3.87	53.33	53.33	0.26	0.26
Mississippi St.	SEC	3.85	3.85	66.67	66.67	1.28	1.28
Florida	SEC	2.26	2.26	68.75	68.75	0.85	0.85
Vanderbilt	SEC	2.26	2.26	69.70	69.70	0.89	0.89
Kentucky	SEC	2.24	2.24	93.94	93.94	1.97	1.97
Georgia	SEC	2.21	2.21	48.39	48.39	-0.07	-0.07
Tennessee	SEC	2.21	2.21	53.33	53.33	0.15	0.15
South Carolina	SEC	2.18	2.18	33.33	33.33	-0.73	-0.73
North Florida	ASun	1.79	1.79	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	1.72	1.72	29.63	29.63	-0.70	-0.70
Florida A&M	MEAC	1.71	1.71	26.67	26.67	-0.80	-0.80
McNeese St.	Slnd	1.70	1.70	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Florida	BE	1.69	1.69	61.29	61.29	0.38	0.38
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	1.69	1.69	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	1.67	1.67	45.16	45.16	-0.16	-0.16
Kennesaw St.	ASun	1.66	1.66	6.90	6.90	-1.44	-1.44
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	1.64	1.64	34.38	34.38	-0.51	-0.51
Georgia Southern	SC	1.64	1.64	48.15	48.15	-0.06	-0.06
Seton Hall	BE	1.64	1.64	61.29	61.29	0.37	0.37
Florida St.	ACC	1.64	1.64	71.88	71.88	0.72	0.72
Hawaii	WAC	1.61	1.61	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
Long Beach St.	BW	1.61	1.61	73.33	73.33	0.75	0.75
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.25	0.25	63.64	63.64	0.07	0.07
Jacksonville	ASun	0.23	0.23	26.67	26.67	-0.11	-0.11
Grambling	SWAC	0.22	0.22	14.29	14.29	-0.16	-0.16
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.21	0.21	10.71	10.71	-0.16	-0.16
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.21	0.21	10.34	10.34	-0.16	-0.16
Stetson	ASun	0.21	0.21	28.57	28.57	-0.09	-0.09
Marquette	BE	0.20	0.20	78.12	78.12	0.11	0.11
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.19	0.19	34.62	34.62	-0.06	-0.06
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.18	0.18	72.73	72.73	0.08	0.08
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.18	0.18	60.00	60.00	0.04	0.04
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.18	0.18	63.33	63.33	0.05	0.05
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.18	0.18	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
Connecticut	BE	0.18	0.18	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.18	0.18	35.48	35.48	-0.05	-0.05
Houston	CUSA	0.18	0.18	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.17	0.17	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Miami FL	ACC	0.17	0.17	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Lamar	Slnd	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.16	0.16	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.16	0.16	27.59	27.59	-0.07	-0.07
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.16	0.16	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
South Alabama	SB	0.15	0.15	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.15	0.15	85.29	85.29	0.11	0.11
Providence	BE	0.15	0.15	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.15	0.15	74.19	74.19	0.07	0.07
Rutgers	BE	0.15	0.15	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Louisville	BE	0.15	0.15	74.29	74.29	0.07	0.07
Dayton	A10	0.15	0.15	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.13	0.13	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.13	0.13	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.13	0.13	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
Kansas St.	B12	0.13	0.13	67.74	67.74	0.05	0.05
Pittsburgh	BE	0.13	0.13	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Oakland	Sum	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.13	0.13	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.12	0.12	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.11	0.11	23.08	23.08	-0.06	-0.06
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.11	0.11	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.11	0.11	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.11	0.11	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
Idaho	WAC	0.11	0.11	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Belmont	ASun	0.11	0.11	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Pacific	BW	0.11	0.11	32.14	32.14	-0.04	-0.04
UC Davis	BW	0.10	0.10	13.33	13.33	-0.08	-0.08
Utah St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Memphis	CUSA	0.10	0.10	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
Xavier	A10	0.10	0.10	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Akron	MAC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Detroit	Horz	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.10	0.10	73.33	73.33	0.05	0.05
North Texas	SB	0.10	0.10	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Villanova	BE	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.10	0.10	82.35	82.35	0.07	0.07
West Virginia	BE	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Duke	ACC	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.10	19.23	19.23	-0.06	-0.06
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.10	0.10	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.10	0.10	80.00	80.00	0.06	0.06
College of Charleston	SC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Elon	SC	0.08	0.08	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.08	0.08	14.29	14.29	-0.06	-0.06
Furman	SC	0.08	0.08	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.08	0.08	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Samford	SC	0.08	0.08	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.08	0.08	67.86	67.86	0.03	0.03
Western Carolina	SC	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.08	0.08	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.08	0.08	19.23	19.23	-0.05	-0.05
Wake Forest	ACC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.08	0.08	64.29	64.29	0.02	0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.08	0.08	25.93	25.93	-0.04	-0.04
Charlotte	A10	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.08	0.08	6.90	6.90	-0.07	-0.07
UC Riverside	BW	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Boise St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.07	0.07	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Hampton	MEAC	0.07	0.07	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona	P12	0.07	0.07	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Baylor	B12	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Maryland	ACC	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.07	0.07	93.94	93.94	0.07	0.07
Texas A&M	B12	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Drake	MVC	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Texas Christian	MWC	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Texas St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	34.62	34.62	-0.02	-0.02
Fresno St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada	WAC	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
California	P12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Montana	BSky	0.05	0.05	79.31	79.31	0.03	0.03
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.05	83.33	83.33	0.03	0.03
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.05	18.75	18.75	-0.03	-0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	83.87	83.87	0.03	0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.05	65.38	65.38	0.02	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Longwood	ind	0.05	0.05	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Missouri	B12	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	16.13	16.13	-0.02	-0.02
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.02	0.02	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Florida International	SB	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.02	0.02	86.21	86.21	0.02	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.02	0.02	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.02	0.02	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Stanford	P12	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Portland	WCC	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.02	0.02	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02