live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Auburn

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:175.0
Current RPI:175
Expected SOS:56
Current SOS:56
Current Record:11-20
Expected Record:11-20
Current Conf Record:5-14
Expected Conf Record:5-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-11
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-1
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:118
Expected OOC SOS:40



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-20175.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Auburn.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13UAB (88.0)CUSAH75-74W100%0.0
11-17Colorado (35.0)P12H84-91L0%0.0
11-20Georgia Southern (243.0)SBH92-62W100%0.0
11-27Northwestern St. (344.0)SlndH119-81W100%0.0
12-2Coastal Carolina (164.0)BSthA78-81W100%0.0
12-12Middle Tennessee (78.0)CUSAA88-81L0%0.0
12-15Mercer (194.0)SCH78-71W100%0.0
12-19Xavier (7.0)BEA85-61L0%0.0
12-22New Mexico (141.0)MWCN78-83W100%0.0
12-23Harvard (193.0)IvyN69-51L0%0.0
12-25Hawaii (80.0)BWA79-67L0%0.0
1-2Tennessee (143.0)SECH83-77W100%0.0
1-5South Carolina (65.0)SECH69-81L0%0.0
1-9Missouri (222.0)SECA76-61L0%0.0
1-12Vanderbilt (63.0)SECA75-57L0%0.0
1-16Kentucky (11.0)SECH75-70W100%0.0
1-19Alabama (73.0)SECH83-77W100%0.0
1-23Florida (55.0)SECA95-63L0%0.0
1-27Mississippi (96.0)SECA80-63L0%0.0
1-30Oklahoma St. (170.0)B12H63-74L0%0.0
2-2LSU (94.0)SECH68-80L0%0.0
2-6Georgia (62.0)SECA65-55L0%0.0
2-9Tennessee (143.0)SECA71-45L0%0.0
2-13Vanderbilt (63.0)SECH57-86L0%0.0
2-17Arkansas (133.0)SECA86-90W100%0.0
2-20Mississippi (96.0)SECH59-69L0%0.0
2-24Georgia (62.0)SECH84-81W100%0.0
2-27Alabama (73.0)SECA65-57L0%0.0
3-1Texas A&M (18.0)SECH63-81L0%0.0
3-5Mississippi St. (154.0)SECA79-66L0%0.0
3-9Tennessee (143.0)SECN97-59L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Auburn's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Auburn's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Auburn.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AuburnSEC26.1426.1431.8531.85-9.49-9.49
TennesseeSEC5.445.4441.9441.94-0.88-0.88
MississippiSEC3.893.8960.0060.000.780.78
VanderbiltSEC3.863.8656.6756.670.510.51
GeorgiaSEC3.853.8560.0060.000.770.77
AlabamaSEC3.853.8556.6756.670.510.51
KentuckySEC2.412.4178.7978.791.391.39
FloridaSEC2.332.3356.2556.250.290.29
South CarolinaSEC2.332.3373.3373.331.091.09
ArkansasSEC2.322.3251.6151.610.070.07
LSUSEC2.302.3056.2556.250.290.29
Texas A&MSEC2.292.2975.7675.761.181.18
Mississippi St.SEC2.292.2943.3343.33-0.30-0.30
MissouriSEC2.262.2630.0030.00-0.90-0.90
XavierBE1.691.6983.8783.871.141.14
Northwestern St.Slnd1.691.6921.7421.74-0.95-0.95
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.661.6670.0070.000.670.67
UABCUSA1.661.6683.3383.331.111.11
Georgia SouthernSB1.661.6642.8642.86-0.24-0.24
HawaiiBW1.641.6482.7682.761.081.08
Coastal CarolinaBSth1.641.6460.0060.000.330.33
MercerSC1.641.6456.6756.670.220.22
Oklahoma St.B121.641.6435.4835.48-0.48-0.48
ColoradoP121.611.6164.5264.520.470.47
HarvardIvy1.611.6140.7440.74-0.30-0.30
New MexicoMWC1.611.6154.8454.840.160.16
Gardner WebbBSth0.240.2446.6746.67-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.230.2351.5251.520.010.01
BaylorB120.210.2165.6265.620.070.07
MarshallCUSA0.200.2051.5251.520.010.01
WinthropBSth0.190.1968.9768.970.070.07
WoffordSC0.190.1943.3343.33-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.180.1864.5264.520.050.05
Seton HallBE0.180.1875.7675.760.090.09
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.180.1822.5822.58-0.10-0.10
Georgia St.SB0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
KansasB120.150.1587.8887.880.120.12
DaytonA100.150.1578.1278.120.090.09
East Tennessee St.SC0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
Georgia TechACC0.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.140.1425.8125.81-0.07-0.07
South AlabamaSB0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
NevadaMWC0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
TroySB0.130.1324.1424.14-0.07-0.07
Long Beach St.BW0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
OklahomaB120.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
Texas TechB120.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
ClemsonACC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
St. John'sBE0.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
TexasB120.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
ButlerBE0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
TCUB120.120.1236.3636.36-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.110.1164.2964.290.030.03
ArizonaP120.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
The CitadelSC0.110.1124.1424.14-0.05-0.05
FIUCUSA0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.1070.0070.000.040.04
Southern MissCUSA0.100.1025.9325.93-0.05-0.05
George MasonA100.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
OregonP120.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
Washington St.P120.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
MarquetteBE0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
PurdueB100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Iowa St.B120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.1064.2964.290.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0982.1482.140.060.06
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0926.9226.92-0.04-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0922.2222.22-0.05-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
BYUWCC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
MassachusettsA100.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0862.8662.860.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
RiceCUSA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.04-0.04
MemphisAmer0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
USCP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
West VirginiaB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Arizona St.P120.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
George WashingtonA100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
NebraskaB100.070.0747.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
CornellIvy0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.060.0637.0437.04-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
YaleIvy0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0687.1087.100.040.04
Texas St.SB0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
FurmanSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
IllinoisB100.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0535.2935.29-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
VMISC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
CaliforniaP120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
CreightonBE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0511.1111.11-0.04-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
UNLVMWC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
UtahP120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
StetsonASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0322.8622.86-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
DavidsonA100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
LipscombASun0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
VCUA100.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
NavyPat0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
NJITASun0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
SyracuseACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00