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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Auburn

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:129.0
Current RPI:129
Expected SOS:26
Current SOS:26
Current Record:14-20
Expected Record:14-20
Current Conf Record:7-15
Expected Conf Record:7-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-2
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:105
Expected OOC SOS:51



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-20129.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Auburn.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Milwaukee (206.0)HorzH83-73W100%0.0
11-17Colorado (116.0)P12A90-59L0%0.0
11-21Louisiana Lafayette (142.0)SBH105-80W100%0.0
11-24Tulsa (45.0)AmerN53-35L0%0.0
11-26Oregon St. (133.0)P12N71-69W100%0.0
12-3Texas Tech (183.0)B12A46-44L0%0.0
12-5Coastal Carolina (124.0)BSthH54-58L0%0.0
12-14Clemson (106.0)ACCA72-61L0%0.0
12-17Winthrop (210.0)BSthH80-62W100%0.0
12-20Xavier (30.0)BEH89-88W100%0.0
12-23Texas Southern (120.0)SWACH61-60W100%0.0
12-29Middle Tennessee (138.0)CUSAH64-48W100%0.0
1-6Vanderbilt (104.0)SECA64-52L0%0.0
1-10Missouri (218.0)SECH85-79W100%0.0
1-15Florida (72.0)SECA75-55L0%0.0
1-17South Carolina (91.0)SECH71-68W100%0.0
1-21Mississippi St. (216.0)SECH71-78L0%0.0
1-24Alabama (85.0)SECA57-55L0%0.0
1-27Texas A&M (67.0)SECH61-71L0%0.0
1-31Tennessee (96.0)SECA71-63L0%0.0
2-5LSU (57.0)SECA77-81W100%0.0
2-7Mississippi (60.0)SECH79-86L0%0.0
2-10Arkansas (19.0)SECH87-101L0%0.0
2-14Georgia (38.0)SECA68-69W100%0.0
2-17Alabama (85.0)SECH68-79L0%0.0
2-21Kentucky (1.0)SECA110-75L0%0.0
2-24LSU (57.0)SECH61-84L0%0.0
2-28Texas A&M (67.0)SECA80-55L0%0.0
3-3Missouri (218.0)SECA63-61L0%0.0
3-7Georgia (38.0)SECH61-64L0%0.0
3-11Mississippi St. (216.0)SECN68-74W100%0.0
3-12Texas A&M (67.0)SECN59-66W100%0.0
3-13LSU (57.0)SECN70-73W100%0.0
3-14Kentucky (1.0)SECN91-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Auburn's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Auburn's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Auburn.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AuburnSEC26.3026.3037.6637.66-6.49-6.49
LSUSEC5.045.0472.4172.412.262.26
Texas A&MSEC5.035.0364.2964.291.441.44
KentuckySEC3.643.64100.00100.003.643.64
MissouriSEC3.633.6324.1424.14-1.88-1.88
AlabamaSEC3.613.6151.7251.720.120.12
GeorgiaSEC3.583.5866.6766.671.191.19
Mississippi St.SEC3.573.5737.9337.93-0.86-0.86
FloridaSEC2.302.3046.8846.88-0.14-0.14
ArkansasSEC2.282.2875.7675.761.181.18
South CarolinaSEC2.282.2851.6151.610.070.07
MississippiSEC2.212.2161.2961.290.500.50
TennesseeSEC2.212.2148.3948.39-0.07-0.07
VanderbiltSEC2.162.1656.6756.670.290.29
ClemsonACC1.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
ColoradoP121.571.5745.1645.16-0.15-0.15
XavierBE1.571.5763.6463.640.430.43
Oregon St.P121.561.5655.1755.170.160.16
WinthropBSth1.551.5557.1457.140.220.22
Coastal CarolinaBSth1.541.5467.8667.860.550.55
Texas TechB121.541.5438.7138.71-0.35-0.35
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.521.5258.6258.620.260.26
MilwaukeeHorz1.521.5244.4444.44-0.17-0.17
Texas SouthernSWAC1.521.5266.6766.670.510.51
TulsaAmer1.501.5070.0070.000.600.60
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.471.4754.5554.550.130.13
Gardner WebbBSth0.220.2253.3353.330.010.01
Arizona St.P120.210.2153.1253.120.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.210.2156.6756.670.030.03
UCLAP120.210.2160.6160.610.040.04
Kansas St.B120.210.2146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.190.1971.8871.880.080.08
Southern MissCUSA0.160.1625.9325.93-0.08-0.08
UABCUSA0.160.1654.5554.550.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
ArizonaP120.140.1491.1891.180.120.12
McNeese St.Slnd0.140.1440.7440.74-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.140.1451.5251.520.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.140.1455.5655.560.020.02
MercerSC0.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.140.1427.2727.27-0.06-0.06
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.140.1472.4172.410.060.06
Iowa St.B120.140.1475.7675.760.070.07
KansasB120.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
LongwoodBSth0.130.1328.1228.12-0.06-0.06
High PointBSth0.130.1367.8667.860.040.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.120.1227.5927.59-0.06-0.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Western CarolinaSC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
TroySB0.120.1229.6329.63-0.05-0.05
Georgia TechACC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
DePaulBE0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
DaytonA100.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.120.1218.7518.75-0.07-0.07
West VirginiaB120.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
Old DominionCUSA0.110.1177.4277.420.060.06
TexasB120.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
CreightonBE0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
LibertyBSth0.100.1014.2914.29-0.07-0.07
PresbyterianBSth0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
RadfordBSth0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.100.1083.3383.330.070.07
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1059.2659.260.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
USCP120.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
Washington St.P120.090.0941.9441.94-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.090.0925.8125.81-0.05-0.05
TulaneAmer0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0958.8258.820.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
SMUAmer0.090.0981.2581.250.060.06
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.090.0968.5768.570.030.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Seton HallBE0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
ButlerBE0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
OaklandHorz0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Texas St.SB0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0730.7730.77-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Saint LouisA100.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0787.1087.100.050.05
South AlabamaSB0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
UtahP120.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
North FloridaASun0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
MassachusettsA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.070.0739.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0710.3410.34-0.05-0.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.070.000.00-0.07-0.07
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0775.0075.000.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.070.0793.9493.940.060.06
LouisvilleACC0.070.0775.0075.000.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0662.9662.960.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
VillanovaBE0.060.0694.1294.120.060.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
DetroitHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
StanfordP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
RutgersB100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
YaleIvy0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
AkronMAC0.040.0458.8258.820.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.040.0430.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.040.0460.0060.000.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.040.0428.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.040.0441.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.040.0471.8871.880.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.040.0444.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.040.0460.7160.710.010.01
FIUCUSA0.040.0445.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.040.0451.7251.720.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.040.0445.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.040.0420.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.040.0483.3383.330.030.03
St. John'sBE0.040.0464.5264.520.010.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.026.906.90-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0258.3358.330.000.00
La SalleA100.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
NevadaMWC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
SyracuseACC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
UCFAmer0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.020.0290.6290.620.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01
CornellIvy0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.020.0274.2974.290.010.01
WyomingMWC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
BelmontOVC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
IndianaB100.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
IonaMAAC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
LamarSlnd0.020.0242.3142.31-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0286.6786.670.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00