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Through games of Nov 21, 2014.


Auburn

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:151.6
Current RPI:190
Expected SOS:63
Current SOS:235
Current Record:2-1
Expected Record:12-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-1
Current OOC Record:2-1
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:133
Expected OOC SOS:113



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-823.70.03%
20-932.00.05%
19-1044.00.25%
18-1154.40.82%
17-1267.12.38%
16-1384.05.12%
15-14101.28.36%
14-15119.413.45%
13-16138.316.31%
12-17157.716.90%
11-18177.615.58%
10-19197.110.49%
9-20214.46.08%
8-21232.42.78%
7-22254.30.98%
6-23263.80.36%
5-24277.40.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Auburn.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Milwaukee (265.7)HorzH83-73W100%0.0
11-17Colorado (47.7)P12A90-59L0%0.0
11-21Louisiana Lafayette (204.2)SBH105-80W100%0.0
11-24Tulsa (112.6)AmerN0-044%-1.7
12-3Texas Tech (173.3)B12A0-040%-3.2
12-5Coastal Carolina (139.1)BSthH0-067%5.3
12-14Clemson (139.2)ACCA0-028%-7.2
12-17Winthrop (180.6)BSthH0-075%8.1
12-20Xavier (14.9)BEH0-025%-8.1
12-23Texas Southern (251.9)SWACH0-087%13.4
12-29Middle Tennessee (167.7)CUSAH0-069%6.1
1-6Vanderbilt (149.5)SECA0-035%-4.7
1-10Missouri (99.0)SECH0-048%-0.6
1-15Florida (33.8)SECA0-012%-14.4
1-17South Carolina (81.1)SECH0-041%-2.8
1-21Mississippi St. (223.8)SECH0-075%8.0
1-24Alabama (87.6)SECA0-025%-8.1
1-27Texas A&M (54.1)SECH0-035%-4.6
1-31Tennessee (165.0)SECA0-038%-3.8
2-5LSU (78.9)SECA0-024%-8.5
2-7Mississippi (66.9)SECH0-040%-3.0
2-10Arkansas (32.7)SECH0-028%-7.0
2-14Georgia (65.0)SECA0-020%-9.9
2-17Alabama (87.6)SECH0-047%-0.9
2-21Kentucky (4.2)SECA0-03%-21.8
2-24LSU (78.9)SECH0-046%-1.3
2-28Texas A&M (54.1)SECA0-016%-11.8
3-3Missouri (99.0)SECA0-026%-7.8
3-7Georgia (65.0)SECH0-041%-2.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Auburn's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Auburn's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Auburn.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AuburnSEC36.1126.1766.6738.3312.04-6.11
Texas A&MSEC0.004.1366.6764.300.001.18
AlabamaSEC0.004.10100.0055.300.000.43
LSUSEC0.004.1066.6756.200.000.51
MissouriSEC0.004.1066.6749.420.00-0.05
GeorgiaSEC0.004.0766.6756.730.000.55
ArkansasSEC0.002.47100.0074.280.001.20
MississippiSEC0.002.4766.6760.240.000.51
KentuckySEC0.002.47100.0085.730.001.76
South CarolinaSEC0.002.4650.0055.070.000.25
FloridaSEC0.002.4666.6765.820.000.78
VanderbiltSEC0.002.44100.0047.790.00-0.11
TennesseeSEC0.002.4350.0043.320.00-0.32
Mississippi St.SEC0.002.40100.0036.960.00-0.63
XavierBE0.001.84100.0076.470.000.98
ClemsonACC0.001.8233.3343.91-0.00-0.22
WinthropBSth0.001.7950.0057.870.000.28
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.001.790.0063.38-0.000.48
Texas SouthernSWAC0.001.780.0039.10-0.00-0.39
ColoradoP1216.671.78100.0067.2516.670.62
Texas TechB120.001.7850.0042.980.00-0.25
TulsaAmer4.171.7666.6751.871.390.07
Louisiana LafayetteSB16.671.750.0050.44-16.670.02
MilwaukeeHorz16.671.750.0034.98-16.67-0.53
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.001.720.0048.65-0.00-0.05
Kansas St.B120.000.2366.6755.230.000.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.2366.6766.420.000.07
Oklahoma St.B122.780.21100.0053.872.780.02
BaylorB120.000.21100.0068.940.000.08
UCLAP120.000.18100.0061.850.000.04
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1850.0052.770.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.18100.0061.270.000.04
High PointBSth0.000.17100.0058.330.000.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1750.0049.490.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.150.0046.30-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.15100.0052.690.000.01
MercerSC0.000.1550.0052.770.000.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.150.0053.20-0.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.1550.0059.230.000.03
CampbellBSth0.000.140.0030.14-0.00-0.05
LibertyBSth0.000.1450.0041.040.00-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.140.0033.43-0.00-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.000.1450.0021.230.00-0.08
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.13100.0058.280.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1350.0062.510.000.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1333.3336.04-0.00-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1366.6752.470.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.130.0036.14-0.00-0.03
DePaulBE0.000.12100.0037.800.00-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.120.0015.68-0.00-0.08
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1233.3349.79-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.120.0045.64-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.12100.0068.970.000.05
Arizona St.P120.000.12100.0058.420.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.1250.0056.300.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.12100.0044.620.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.000.120.0041.45-0.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.12100.0055.810.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1225.0057.21-0.000.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.120.0034.26-0.00-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1250.0061.070.000.03
Seton HallBE0.000.12100.0057.560.000.02
UABCUSA0.000.120.0043.40-0.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.120.0045.03-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.1233.3367.72-0.000.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.120.0048.22-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.000.12100.0068.580.000.04
DaytonA100.000.1266.6769.310.000.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.120.0041.63-0.00-0.02
KansasB120.000.1250.0060.200.000.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.110.0045.55-0.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.1033.3344.86-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.100.0031.91-0.00-0.04
OaklandHorz0.000.100.0033.70-0.00-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.090.0051.04-0.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.090.0044.57-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.090.0038.65-0.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0950.0059.030.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.09100.0059.140.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0966.6754.260.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0966.6768.330.000.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.09100.0075.400.000.05
TulaneAmer0.000.0950.0033.930.00-0.03
ButlerBE0.000.09100.0054.180.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.09100.0064.850.000.03
North FloridaASun0.000.090.0049.10-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.090.0027.72-0.00-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.090.0037.20-0.00-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.09100.0084.100.000.06
ChattanoogaSC0.000.090.0054.47-0.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.09100.0064.920.000.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.09100.0077.160.000.05
Wake ForestACC0.000.0950.0041.490.00-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0933.3354.24-0.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0933.3335.37-0.00-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.000.09100.0086.950.000.06
ProvidenceBE0.000.09100.0062.680.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.09100.0046.320.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.09100.0054.240.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.090.0015.85-0.00-0.06
TexasB120.000.09100.0084.130.000.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0825.0033.23-0.00-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.080.0038.83-0.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.080.0062.15-0.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0750.0054.170.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.070.0055.45-0.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.070.0065.86-0.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0733.3336.31-0.00-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0750.0052.540.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.060.0048.48-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.060.0046.93-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.060.0058.17-0.000.01
Texas St.SB0.000.06100.0052.850.000.00
IUPUISum2.780.0633.3330.78-0.93-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.060.0034.69-0.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.06100.0065.750.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.060.0065.36-0.000.02
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0069.430.000.02
TempleAmer0.000.0666.6760.730.000.01
USCP120.000.0650.0026.710.00-0.03
UtahP120.000.0666.6770.360.000.03
Washington St.P120.000.0633.3327.05-0.00-0.03
WashingtonP120.000.06100.0056.460.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.06100.0070.040.000.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0666.6751.090.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.06100.0073.200.000.03
Oregon St.P120.000.06100.0050.080.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0650.0036.270.00-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0650.0045.330.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.06100.0057.620.000.01
OregonP120.000.06100.0070.690.000.02
ElonCAA0.000.0650.0040.300.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.06100.0043.610.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0666.6738.630.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0065.630.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0024.25-0.00-0.03
MassachusettsA100.000.06100.0063.880.000.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0650.0072.260.000.03
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0034.37-0.00-0.02
Saint LouisA100.000.06100.0066.070.000.02
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0052.280.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0633.3363.09-0.000.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0666.6745.850.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0067.360.000.02
YaleIvy0.000.0650.0057.440.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0650.0054.250.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0079.370.000.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.06100.0066.050.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0650.0043.330.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0038.98-0.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0040.22-0.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0023.71-0.00-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0020.87-0.00-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.030.0032.47-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.03100.0063.680.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.030.0049.81-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0035.17-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.030.0036.84-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.030.0041.45-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0081.110.000.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.030.0029.61-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0041.690.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0375.0073.240.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0062.840.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0340.0041.64-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA4.170.030.0034.27-4.17-0.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0086.380.000.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0016.72-0.00-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.030.0041.53-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0023.20-0.00-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.030.0047.54-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6751.250.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0333.3338.44-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.03100.0061.810.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0350.0047.150.00-0.00
StanfordP120.000.03100.0068.290.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0375.0070.210.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.03100.0045.610.00-0.00
VCUA100.000.03100.0074.770.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0076.260.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.03100.0041.370.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0056.150.000.00
AkronMAC0.000.0366.6763.580.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0350.0072.160.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.03100.0071.730.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0333.3352.91-0.000.00
PennIvy0.000.030.0025.28-0.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.03100.0060.570.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0350.0031.730.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0366.6748.270.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.030.0067.54-0.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.03100.0050.220.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.03100.0064.330.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0069.630.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.030.0028.13-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0350.0045.610.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0029.88-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.030.0032.99-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.030.0038.29-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0366.6738.520.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0333.3357.87-0.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0366.6759.850.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0350.0060.970.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0333.3343.51-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0063.380.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.03100.0061.420.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0350.0049.560.00-0.00
IndianaB100.000.03100.0063.850.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0366.6766.940.000.01
LamarSlnd0.000.030.0033.17-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0366.6771.300.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.030.0024.76-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0333.3365.68-0.000.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0350.0044.430.00-0.00