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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Auburn

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:169.0
Current RPI:169
Expected SOS:101
Current SOS:101
Current Record:14-16
Expected Record:14-16
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:154
Expected OOC SOS:258



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-16169.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Auburn.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Nicholls St. (262.0)SlndH76-54W100%0.0
11-15Northwestern St. (158.0)SlndH92-111L0%0.0
11-19Jacksonville St. (317.0)OVCH78-54W100%0.0
11-23Murray St. (142.0)OVCH75-67W100%0.0
11-26Tennessee St. (300.0)OVCH78-73W100%0.0
12-2Iowa St. (7.0)B12A99-70L0%0.0
12-8Illinois (70.0)B10N62-81L0%0.0
12-19Clemson (79.0)ACCH66-64W100%0.0
12-22Boston College (207.0)ACCH77-67W100%0.0
12-30Arkansas Pine Bluff (264.0)SWACH91-59W100%0.0
1-4Florida A&M (295.0)MEACH81-50W100%0.0
1-9Mississippi (94.0)SECA65-62L0%0.0
1-11Missouri (49.0)SECH68-70L0%0.0
1-15Tennessee (42.0)SECA78-67L0%0.0
1-18Florida (1.0)SECH61-68L0%0.0
1-22Mississippi St. (245.0)SECA82-74L0%0.0
1-25Arkansas (77.0)SECA86-67L0%0.0
1-30Alabama (124.0)SECH74-55W100%0.0
2-1Georgia (74.0)SECH74-67W100%0.0
2-5South Carolina (140.0)SECA74-79W100%0.0
2-8LSU (83.0)SECA87-80L0%0.0
2-12Kentucky (17.0)SECH56-64L0%0.0
2-15Mississippi St. (245.0)SECH92-82W100%0.0
2-19Florida (1.0)SECA71-66L0%0.0
2-22Vanderbilt (120.0)SECH59-67L0%0.0
2-26South Carolina (140.0)SECH83-67W100%0.0
3-1Alabama (124.0)SECA73-57L0%0.0
3-5Tennessee (42.0)SECH54-82L0%0.0
3-8Texas A&M (148.0)SECA64-69W100%0.0
3-12South Carolina (140.0)SECN56-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Auburn's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Auburn's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Auburn.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AuburnSEC26.1526.1539.6839.68-5.40-5.40
South CarolinaSEC5.645.6441.9441.94-0.91-0.91
FloridaSEC4.084.0893.7593.753.573.57
TennesseeSEC4.044.0460.0060.000.810.81
Mississippi St.SEC3.953.9541.9441.94-0.64-0.64
AlabamaSEC3.923.9237.9337.93-0.95-0.95
MississippiSEC2.432.4356.2556.250.300.30
MissouriSEC2.412.4165.6265.620.750.75
Texas A&MSEC2.412.4154.8454.840.230.23
KentuckySEC2.412.4169.7069.700.950.95
ArkansasSEC2.382.3864.5264.520.690.69
GeorgiaSEC2.382.3861.2961.290.540.54
LSUSEC2.362.3658.0658.060.380.38
VanderbiltSEC2.332.3346.6746.67-0.16-0.16
Tennessee St.OVC1.811.8114.2914.29-1.29-1.29
ClemsonACC1.791.7964.5264.520.520.52
Jacksonville St.OVC1.781.7828.5728.57-0.76-0.76
Northwestern St.Slnd1.761.7646.1546.15-0.14-0.14
Nicholls St.Slnd1.731.7348.0048.00-0.07-0.07
Murray St.OVC1.721.7261.5461.540.400.40
IllinoisB101.721.7256.2556.250.220.22
Florida A&MMEAC1.721.7241.3841.38-0.30-0.30
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.691.6939.2939.29-0.36-0.36
Boston CollegeACC1.691.6923.3323.33-0.90-0.90
Iowa St.B121.671.6778.1278.120.940.94
Georgia TechACC0.260.2648.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.250.2530.7730.77-0.10-0.10
BaylorB120.200.2066.6766.670.070.07
Morehead St.OVC0.200.2058.0658.060.030.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.200.2048.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.180.1870.9770.970.070.07
AkronMAC0.170.1763.6463.640.050.05
BelmontOVC0.170.1771.8871.880.070.07
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.160.1620.6920.69-0.09-0.09
XavierBE0.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.160.1625.0025.00-0.08-0.08
USC UpstateASun0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.150.1568.9768.970.060.06
McNeese St.Slnd0.150.1525.9325.93-0.07-0.07
Austin PeayOVC0.150.1535.7135.71-0.04-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.150.1531.0331.03-0.06-0.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.150.1520.6920.69-0.09-0.09
Alabama A&MSWAC0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.140.1470.9770.970.060.06
Wichita St.MVC0.130.13100.00100.000.130.13
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.130.1330.3030.30-0.05-0.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.130.1370.9770.970.060.06
DukeACC0.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
South FloridaAmer0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.130.1351.5251.520.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.130.1336.6736.67-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
Texas TechB120.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.1361.7661.760.030.03
KansasB120.120.1272.7372.730.060.06
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.120.1293.1093.100.110.11
Boise St.MWC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.120.1236.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.120.1253.5753.570.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
LipscombASun0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
VirginiaACC0.110.1182.3582.350.070.07
IowaB100.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
North FloridaASun0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
TCUB120.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
MarshallCUSA0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
WisconsinB100.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Houston BaptistSlnd0.090.0914.8114.81-0.07-0.07
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0924.0024.00-0.05-0.05
LamarSlnd0.090.0910.7110.71-0.07-0.07
Oral RobertsSlnd0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
DrexelCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0834.6234.62-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
SMUAmer0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Notre DameACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
Virginia TechACC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
MassachusettsA100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
PittsburghACC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
TexasB120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
MichiganB100.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Penn St.B100.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
West VirginiaB120.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Michigan St.B100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
LongwoodBSth0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
North TexasCUSA0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0614.8114.81-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
IUPUISum0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
TroySB0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
DaytonA100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Western KentuckySB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0683.8783.870.040.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.04-0.04
ToledoMAC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
StetsonASun0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Miami FLACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DavidsonSC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
OregonP120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.2121.21-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
RutgersAmer0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0386.2186.210.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
USCP120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
WashingtonP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Appalachian St.SC0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
High PointBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
VMIBSth0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
WoffordSC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
George MasonA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MercerASun0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
LouisvilleAmer0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00