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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Auburn

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:252.0
Current RPI:252
Expected SOS:125
Current SOS:125
Current Record:9-23
Expected Record:9-23
Current Conf Record:3-16
Expected Conf Record:3-16
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-4
Current OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:280
Expected OOC SOS:293



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-23252.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Auburn.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9IUPU Fort Wayne (245.0)SumH61-50W100%0.0
11-15Murray St. (110.0)OVCN59-79L0%0.0
11-16College of Charleston (133.0)SCA51-55W100%0.0
11-18Dayton (114.0)A10N63-73L0%0.0
11-21Boston College (113.0)ACCA50-49L0%0.0
11-25Rhode Island (201.0)A10H72-78L0%0.0
11-30DePaul (204.0)BEH76-80L0%0.0
12-11Grambling (347.0)SWACH92-42W100%0.0
12-15Furman (343.0)SCH64-50W100%0.0
12-18Tennessee Tech (242.0)OVCH81-62W100%0.0
12-22Winthrop (269.0)BSthH67-74L0%0.0
12-29Illinois (40.0)B10A81-79L0%0.0
1-2Florida St. (85.0)ACCH78-72W100%0.0
1-9Louisiana St. (86.0)SECH68-63W100%0.0
1-12South Carolina (222.0)SECA71-74W100%0.0
1-16Arkansas (89.0)SECA88-80L0%0.0
1-19Kentucky (56.0)SECH53-75L0%0.0
1-23Vanderbilt (120.0)SECA73-61L0%0.0
1-26Mississippi (47.0)SECH61-63L0%0.0
1-30Georgia (140.0)SECA57-49L0%0.0
2-2Missouri (36.0)SECA91-77L0%0.0
2-6Alabama (60.0)SECH49-37W100%0.0
2-9Kentucky (56.0)SECA72-62L0%0.0
2-13Arkansas (89.0)SECH75-83L0%0.0
2-16Florida (7.0)SECH52-83L0%0.0
2-20Texas A&M (102.0)SECH56-65L0%0.0
2-23Mississippi (47.0)SECA88-55L0%0.0
2-26Alabama (60.0)SECA61-43L0%0.0
3-2Vanderbilt (120.0)SECH55-62L0%0.0
3-6Tennessee (59.0)SECH75-82L0%0.0
3-9Mississippi St. (232.0)SECA74-71L0%0.0
3-13Texas A&M (102.0)SECN71-62L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Auburn's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Auburn's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Auburn.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AuburnSEC26.0826.0823.3323.33-13.91-13.91
VanderbiltSEC3.833.8345.1645.16-0.37-0.37
Texas A&MSEC3.753.7551.6151.610.120.12
MississippiSEC3.753.7575.0075.001.881.88
KentuckySEC3.723.7263.3363.330.990.99
ArkansasSEC3.723.7256.6756.670.500.50
AlabamaSEC3.713.7163.3363.330.990.99
FloridaSEC2.312.3178.1278.121.301.30
TennesseeSEC2.282.2861.2961.290.520.52
MissouriSEC2.282.2868.7568.750.860.86
Mississippi St.SEC2.212.2129.0329.03-0.93-0.93
Louisiana St.SEC2.212.2163.3363.330.590.59
GeorgiaSEC2.192.1945.1645.16-0.21-0.21
South CarolinaSEC2.162.1645.1645.16-0.21-0.21
DaytonA101.691.6953.3353.330.110.11
College of CharlestonSC1.641.6475.0075.000.820.82
Boston CollegeACC1.641.6446.8846.88-0.10-0.10
Murray St.OVC1.621.6264.2964.290.460.46
Florida St.ACC1.611.6156.2556.250.200.20
FurmanSC1.611.6117.8617.86-1.03-1.03
Tennessee TechOVC1.591.5938.4638.46-0.37-0.37
Rhode IslandA101.591.5925.0025.00-0.79-0.79
IllinoisB101.591.5962.5062.500.400.40
DePaulBE1.561.5632.2632.26-0.55-0.55
GramblingSWAC1.561.560.000.00-1.56-1.56
IUPU Fort WayneSum1.561.5646.6746.67-0.10-0.10
WinthropBSth1.561.5637.0437.04-0.41-0.41
Alabama A&MSWAC0.200.2031.0331.03-0.08-0.08
DavidsonSC0.170.1778.1278.120.100.10
ClemsonACC0.170.1741.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.160.1657.1457.140.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.150.1542.3142.31-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.150.1528.1228.12-0.07-0.07
Virginia CommonwealthA100.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
South Dakota St.Sum0.150.1570.9770.970.060.06
LipscombASun0.150.1537.9337.93-0.04-0.04
SamfordSC0.150.1532.2632.26-0.05-0.05
XavierA100.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
OaklandSum0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ButlerA100.150.1575.7675.760.080.08
MarylandACC0.140.1464.7164.710.040.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.1470.9770.970.060.06
Morehead St.OVC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.130.1317.2417.24-0.09-0.09
WoffordSC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.130.1317.8617.86-0.08-0.08
Appalachian St.SC0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
ElonSC0.130.1363.3363.330.030.03
MercerASun0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
St. John'sBE0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
Notre DameBE0.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
Western CarolinaSC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.120.1270.3770.370.050.05
LouisvilleBE0.120.1285.2985.290.090.09
VillanovaBE0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
DukeACC0.120.1284.3884.380.080.08
WisconsinB100.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
VirginiaACC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Miami FLACC0.120.1281.8281.820.080.08
Middle TennesseeSB0.120.1284.8584.850.080.08
BelmontOVC0.110.1180.0080.000.070.07
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.06-0.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.1128.0028.00-0.05-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
Ohio St.B100.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Georgia SouthernSC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
ChattanoogaSC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
St. LouisA100.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
ProvidenceBE0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
FordhamA100.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
MarquetteBE0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
BaylorB120.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
MichiganB100.100.1078.1278.120.050.05
OklahomaB120.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
RutgersBE0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0857.6957.690.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
NC AshevilleBSth0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
NC GreensboroSC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
Oregon St.P120.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
CharlotteA100.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
HoustonCUSA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0885.1985.190.050.05
Virginia TechACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
CincinnatiBE0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
SyracuseBE0.070.0774.2974.290.040.04
Houston BaptistGWC0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
TroySB0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
HawaiiBW0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Southern MississippiCUSA0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
DuquesneA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
RichmondA100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TempleA100.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Old DominionCAA0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
VermontAE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
IUPUISum0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
NavyPat0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
Florida AtlanticSB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
LafayettePat0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
LamarSlnd0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
Long IslandNEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
PittsburghBE0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
South FloridaBE0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
ArmyPat0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
CornellIvy0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
NebraskaB100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Penn St.B100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Texas El PasoCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
George MasonCAA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Georgia St.CAA0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
St. Mary'sWCC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.GWC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
IonaMAAC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
MemphisCUSA0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
New Orleansind0.020.0218.1818.18-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
TexasB120.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Texas San AntonioWAC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
ArizonaP120.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Brigham YoungWCC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
BryantNEC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
BucknellPat0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
ColgatePat0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Florida InternationalSB0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0293.7593.750.020.02
HarvardIvy0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Kansas St.B120.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0214.8114.81-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
New HampshireAE0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
StanfordP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
TowsonCAA0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
YaleIvy0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00