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Through games of Feb 7, 2016.


Auburn

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:159.0
Current RPI:118
Expected SOS:39
Current SOS:20
Current Record:9-13
Expected Record:11-19
Current Conf Record:3-7
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-2
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:102
Expected OOC SOS:22



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-1472.50.02%
15-1591.60.16%
14-16108.41.98%
13-17125.48.36%
12-18143.320.06%
11-19159.333.09%
10-20174.527.43%
9-21189.38.89%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Auburn.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13UAB (87.4)CUSAH75-74W100%0.0
11-17Colorado (45.3)P12H84-91L0%0.0
11-20Georgia Southern (250.4)SBH92-62W100%0.0
11-27Northwestern St. (332.5)SlndH119-81W100%0.0
12-2Coastal Carolina (155.9)BSthA78-81W100%0.0
12-12Middle Tennessee (78.9)CUSAA88-81L0%0.0
12-15Mercer (120.4)SCH78-71W100%0.0
12-19Xavier (7.9)BEA85-61L0%0.0
12-22New Mexico (95.5)MWCN78-83W100%0.0
12-23Harvard (212.3)IvyN69-51L0%0.0
12-25Hawaii (91.4)BWA79-67L0%0.0
1-2Tennessee (119.1)SECH83-77W100%0.0
1-5South Carolina (46.8)SECH69-81L0%0.0
1-9Missouri (218.4)SECA76-61L0%0.0
1-12Vanderbilt (53.3)SECA75-57L0%0.0
1-16Kentucky (20.0)SECH75-70W100%0.0
1-19Alabama (82.0)SECH83-77W100%0.0
1-23Florida (23.8)SECA95-63L0%0.0
1-27Mississippi (111.4)SECA80-63L0%0.0
1-30Oklahoma St. (139.1)B12H63-74L0%0.0
2-2LSU (82.0)SECH68-80L0%0.0
2-6Georgia (78.3)SECA65-55L0%0.0
2-9Tennessee (119.1)SECA0-022%-8.5
2-13Vanderbilt (53.3)SECH0-016%-10.7
2-17Arkansas (88.5)SECA0-012%-12.8
2-20Mississippi (111.4)SECH0-046%-1.1
2-24Georgia (78.3)SECH0-039%-3.2
2-27Alabama (82.0)SECA0-024%-7.7
3-1Texas A&M (21.6)SECH0-014%-11.5
3-5Mississippi St. (177.2)SECA0-025%-7.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Auburn's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Auburn's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Auburn.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AuburnSEC26.1626.1236.6732.84-6.98-8.97
MississippiSEC2.813.9763.6457.780.770.62
AlabamaSEC2.723.9161.9054.100.650.32
TennesseeSEC2.583.9150.0047.410.00-0.20
VanderbiltSEC2.623.9154.5557.800.240.61
GeorgiaSEC2.623.9060.0054.910.520.38
FloridaSEC2.622.3863.6464.960.720.71
ArkansasSEC0.472.3652.1754.860.020.23
MissouriSEC2.632.3531.8228.04-0.96-1.03
South CarolinaSEC2.632.3585.7178.431.881.34
KentuckySEC2.622.3577.2773.941.431.12
Mississippi St.SEC0.402.3240.9139.48-0.07-0.49
LSUSEC2.582.2963.6458.950.700.41
Texas A&MSEC0.352.2978.2677.800.201.27
XavierBE2.371.7590.9183.841.941.18
Northwestern St.Slnd2.321.7520.0027.60-1.39-0.78
UABCUSA2.331.7386.3682.161.691.11
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.321.7270.0068.290.930.63
Georgia SouthernSB2.321.7242.1140.44-0.37-0.33
HawaiiBW2.331.7083.3380.971.551.05
Coastal CarolinaBSth2.331.7063.1662.590.610.43
MercerSC2.271.6976.1973.281.190.79
Oklahoma St.B122.321.6945.4542.52-0.21-0.25
ColoradoP122.271.6768.1864.140.830.47
HarvardIvy2.271.6731.5836.24-0.84-0.46
New MexicoMWC2.271.6763.6465.100.620.50
BaylorB120.270.2372.7366.500.120.07
Kansas St.B120.200.2260.8758.470.040.04
WinthropBSth0.220.2165.0063.440.070.06
WoffordSC0.260.2040.9145.38-0.05-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.210.2045.4547.57-0.02-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.160.1865.2266.160.050.06
Georgia St.SB0.210.1757.8956.100.030.02
MarshallCUSA0.150.1750.0051.170.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.150.1722.7327.19-0.08-0.08
Wake ForestACC0.210.1743.4840.61-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.150.1773.9169.830.070.07
KansasB120.210.1681.8277.570.130.09
DaytonA100.150.1686.3682.380.110.11
Nicholls St.Slnd0.230.1514.2917.92-0.16-0.10
Western KentuckyCUSA0.150.1445.4546.30-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.220.1486.3682.100.160.09
TroySB0.160.1423.8126.67-0.08-0.07
ClemsonACC0.160.1460.8760.240.030.03
Texas TechB120.110.1459.0953.120.020.01
Georgia TechACC0.100.1452.1751.590.000.00
St. John'sBE0.200.1426.0923.72-0.10-0.07
TexasB120.100.1369.5762.630.040.03
High PointBSth0.110.1255.0057.480.010.02
NevadaMWC0.170.1255.0054.530.020.01
South AlabamaSB0.160.1233.3334.19-0.05-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.160.1245.4551.35-0.010.00
FIUCUSA0.100.1240.9145.30-0.02-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.1257.8961.750.020.03
ChattanoogaSC0.110.1186.3685.030.080.08
Southern MissCUSA0.050.1131.5831.98-0.02-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.1171.4368.710.020.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.1159.0959.440.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.150.1121.7423.40-0.09-0.06
OregonP120.150.1182.6179.210.100.06
George MasonA100.150.1134.7834.15-0.05-0.03
ButlerBE0.100.1169.5767.230.040.04
Iowa St.B120.100.1173.9170.060.050.04
PurdueB100.150.1179.1776.550.090.06
TCUB120.100.1143.4837.22-0.01-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.1070.5975.550.020.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.120.1017.6529.24-0.08-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.1015.0027.26-0.05-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.130.0942.8646.34-0.02-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0923.8126.56-0.03-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.160.0930.0035.77-0.06-0.03
ArizonaP120.120.0979.1778.330.070.05
Cal PolyBW0.120.0930.0034.56-0.05-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.110.0926.0929.20-0.05-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.110.0945.4549.70-0.01-0.00
The CitadelSC0.160.0933.3331.31-0.05-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.110.0942.8639.19-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.110.0975.0070.940.050.04
Western CarolinaSC0.100.0928.5731.36-0.04-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.160.0820.8323.63-0.09-0.04
BYUWCC0.160.0866.6769.500.050.03
RiceCUSA0.150.0828.5729.72-0.07-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.110.0822.7323.25-0.06-0.05
MassachusettsA100.110.0840.9139.36-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.0866.6762.620.030.02
DePaulBE0.150.0834.7834.45-0.05-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.0825.0024.36-0.05-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.0840.9149.27-0.02-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.100.0833.3335.48-0.03-0.02
MarquetteBE0.150.0862.5056.260.040.01
South FloridaAmer0.150.0820.0019.66-0.09-0.05
StanfordP120.100.0850.0046.610.00-0.01
USCP120.100.0878.2673.060.060.04
Washington St.P120.100.0836.3632.00-0.03-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.100.0845.4538.47-0.01-0.02
MemphisAmer0.100.0860.8760.770.020.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0854.1751.660.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.150.0839.1341.12-0.03-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0878.2676.810.030.04
TowsonCAA0.100.0865.2259.750.030.02
West VirginiaB120.100.0882.6179.550.060.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0721.0527.82-0.04-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0727.7834.50-0.00-0.02
CampbellBSth0.110.0728.5729.65-0.05-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.110.0725.0026.87-0.06-0.03
RadfordBSth0.110.0750.0051.270.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0635.0032.27-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0628.5728.54-0.00-0.03
UC DavisBW0.060.0640.0036.77-0.01-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0672.7371.620.000.03
UC RiversideBW0.060.0645.8341.65-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.120.0642.8650.41-0.020.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0675.0071.500.040.03
HowardMEAC0.120.0638.1040.73-0.03-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.110.0663.6460.940.030.01
LongwoodBSth0.110.0622.7324.97-0.06-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0690.4886.880.050.04
BrownIvy0.000.0631.5831.05-0.00-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0666.6765.210.020.02
CornellIvy0.060.0642.1140.16-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.110.0631.5831.79-0.04-0.02
PennIvy0.060.0638.8937.66-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0672.2274.710.030.03
Texas St.SB0.110.0638.8938.51-0.03-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.110.0666.6770.540.040.02
YaleIvy0.000.0673.6874.650.000.03
Northern IowaMVC0.110.0654.1755.080.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.100.0634.7840.92-0.03-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.100.0633.3332.99-0.03-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.100.0656.5262.780.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.100.0652.1751.940.000.00
UTSACUSA0.100.0613.6413.62-0.08-0.04
FurmanSC0.050.0652.1753.310.000.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0668.0067.970.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0628.0030.73-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.100.0639.1341.32-0.02-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0628.5731.89-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.050.0615.7917.42-0.04-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.110.0654.1755.570.010.01
DukeACC0.110.0673.9170.040.050.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.0635.0035.98-0.03-0.02
VermontAE0.110.0654.1757.520.010.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0633.3332.34-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.100.0658.3354.160.020.00
CaliforniaP120.100.0665.2262.880.030.01
CreightonBE0.000.0662.5059.780.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0654.1752.340.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0628.5726.96-0.02-0.03
Notre DameACC0.050.0669.5765.850.020.02
Oregon St.P120.100.0661.9056.420.020.01
UtahP120.050.0669.5767.480.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0686.9686.370.040.04
WashingtonP120.050.0665.2261.070.020.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0672.7376.360.020.03
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0552.3850.410.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0569.5764.890.020.02
IllinoisB100.100.0545.8344.11-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.100.0554.1750.930.010.00
Miami FLACC0.050.0581.8276.740.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0539.1337.74-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.0556.5256.310.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0565.0066.790.000.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0547.8350.15-0.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0545.4554.11-0.000.00
TulsaAmer0.100.0565.2261.450.030.01
UCLAP120.050.0556.5253.240.010.00
UMKCWAC0.050.0528.5732.71-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.100.0556.5257.000.010.01
ArmyPat0.050.0552.1753.380.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0537.5040.52-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0563.6462.530.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.5012.85-0.04-0.04
DetroitHorz0.050.0547.6245.85-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0547.6252.07-0.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0561.9059.660.010.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0578.2674.420.030.03
NebraskaB100.050.0554.1751.810.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.0565.2268.610.030.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.0550.0049.090.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.050.0565.2267.140.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0572.7372.030.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0525.0022.76-0.02-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0513.6415.80-0.04-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.050.0580.9582.700.030.04
UNLVMWC0.100.0550.0055.200.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0545.0046.77-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0331.5831.80-0.03-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0352.6350.220.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0356.2556.100.010.00
LamarSlnd0.070.0331.5831.96-0.03-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0345.0049.39-0.01-0.00
LibertyBSth0.060.0334.7836.50-0.02-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0316.6720.13-0.04-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.060.0340.9143.71-0.01-0.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0366.6766.540.020.01
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0330.4326.50-0.02-0.01
BryantNEC0.060.0325.0026.37-0.03-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.060.0339.1338.34-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.060.0345.8346.66-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0377.2776.860.030.02
StetsonASun0.060.0323.8127.69-0.03-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0359.0960.070.010.01
VCUA100.050.0373.9173.900.030.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0336.8438.39-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.050.0360.0057.960.010.00
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0370.8370.840.020.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0313.6418.14-0.04-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0352.3854.010.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0357.1459.470.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0365.2264.220.020.01
LipscombASun0.050.0325.0029.27-0.03-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0331.8230.48-0.02-0.01
MichiganB100.050.0369.5766.220.020.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0325.0033.21-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0333.3335.09-0.02-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0350.0046.740.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.050.0340.0038.50-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0347.6244.99-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.050.0390.9186.130.040.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0354.1749.270.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0381.8280.030.000.02
AlbanyAE0.050.0375.0075.850.020.01
AmericanPat0.050.0330.4331.89-0.02-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0352.0050.250.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0375.0076.240.000.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0369.5766.510.020.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0350.0049.860.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0382.6177.740.030.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0343.4842.62-0.01-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0330.4335.11-0.02-0.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0383.3383.020.030.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0326.0927.82-0.02-0.01
NavyPat0.050.0362.5062.450.010.01
NJITASun0.050.0354.1755.250.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0329.1733.15-0.02-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0363.1658.790.010.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0366.6763.420.020.01
RichmondA100.050.0354.5554.490.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0382.6178.890.030.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6762.560.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0368.1866.670.000.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0343.4842.50-0.01-0.00