live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Auburn

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:113.0
Current RPI:113
Expected SOS:107
Current SOS:107
Current Record:18-14
Expected Record:18-14
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-2
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:40
Expected OOC SOS:174



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-14113.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Auburn.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11North Florida (217.0)ASunH83-66W100%0.0
11-14Georgia St. (104.0)SBH83-65W100%0.0
11-17Eastern Kentucky (247.0)OVCH85-64W100%0.0
11-22Texas Tech (124.0)B12N67-65W100%0.0
11-23Purdue (19.0)B10N96-71L0%0.0
11-29USC Upstate (229.0)ASunH90-83W100%0.0
12-3UAB (201.0)CUSAA70-74W100%0.0
12-12Boston College (219.0)ACCN72-71L0%0.0
12-15Coastal Carolina (183.0)SBH117-72W100%0.0
12-18Mercer (192.0)SCH76-74W100%0.0
12-21Oklahoma (168.0)B12N70-74W100%0.0
12-23Connecticut (118.0)AmerA67-70W100%0.0
12-29Georgia (52.0)SECH84-96L0%0.0
1-4Vanderbilt (44.0)SECA80-61L0%0.0
1-7Mississippi (77.0)SECH85-88L0%0.0
1-10Missouri (257.0)SECA72-77W100%0.0
1-14Kentucky (3.0)SECA92-72L0%0.0
1-18LSU (193.0)SECH78-74W100%0.0
1-21Alabama (78.0)SECH84-64W100%0.0
1-24South Carolina (42.0)SECA98-69L0%0.0
1-28TCU (67.0)B12A80-88W100%0.0
1-31Tennessee (82.0)SECH77-87L0%0.0
2-4Alabama (78.0)SECA77-82W100%0.0
2-7Mississippi St. (150.0)SECH98-92W100%0.0
2-11Mississippi (77.0)SECA90-84L0%0.0
2-14Florida (10.0)SECH95-114L0%0.0
2-18Texas A&M (92.0)SECA81-62L0%0.0
2-21LSU (193.0)SECA75-98W100%0.0
2-25Arkansas (28.0)SECH68-79L0%0.0
3-1Georgia (52.0)SECA79-78L0%0.0
3-4Missouri (257.0)SECH89-78W100%0.0
3-8Missouri (257.0)SECN83-86L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Auburn's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Auburn's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Auburn.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AuburnSEC26.1326.1354.6754.672.442.44
MissouriSEC5.275.2724.1424.14-2.72-2.72
AlabamaSEC3.863.8661.2961.290.870.87
MississippiSEC3.783.7858.0658.060.610.61
LSUSEC3.733.7334.4834.48-1.16-1.16
GeorgiaSEC3.703.7053.3353.330.250.25
Mississippi St.SEC2.322.3251.6151.610.070.07
ArkansasSEC2.322.3272.7372.731.051.05
KentuckySEC2.272.2784.8584.851.581.58
FloridaSEC2.242.2474.1974.191.081.08
South CarolinaSEC2.222.2266.6766.670.740.74
Texas A&MSEC2.212.2150.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC2.192.1954.5554.550.200.20
TennesseeSEC2.192.1946.6746.67-0.15-0.15
North FloridaASun1.741.7437.9337.93-0.42-0.42
Texas TechB121.741.7458.0658.060.280.28
OklahomaB121.711.7136.6736.67-0.46-0.46
Georgia St.SB1.691.6962.0762.070.410.41
TCUB121.691.6956.2556.250.210.21
Coastal CarolinaSB1.661.6646.6746.67-0.11-0.11
USC UpstateASun1.661.6648.1548.15-0.06-0.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.611.6135.7135.71-0.46-0.46
ConnecticutAmer1.591.5948.3948.39-0.05-0.05
PurdueB101.591.5977.4277.420.870.87
MercerSC1.591.5944.8344.83-0.16-0.16
Boston CollegeACC1.561.5625.8125.81-0.76-0.76
UABCUSA1.561.5651.6151.610.050.05
TexasB120.310.3133.3333.33-0.10-0.10
KansasB120.270.2787.5087.500.200.20
LipscombASun0.230.2356.6756.670.030.03
ClemsonACC0.200.2053.1253.120.010.01
Kansas St.B120.200.2060.6160.610.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.190.1961.2961.290.040.04
BaylorB120.190.1977.4277.420.110.11
Iowa St.B120.190.1969.7069.700.080.08
West VirginiaB120.170.1776.4776.470.090.09
MemphisAmer0.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.160.1646.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.160.1676.6776.670.080.08
NJITASun0.160.1631.0331.03-0.06-0.06
StetsonASun0.160.1627.5927.59-0.07-0.07
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
WoffordSC0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.150.1573.3373.330.070.07
Wake ForestACC0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.150.1536.0036.00-0.04-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
HoustonAmer0.150.1567.7467.740.050.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.150.1587.8887.880.110.11
Georgia SouthernSB0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
TroySB0.130.1358.8258.820.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.130.1325.0025.00-0.06-0.06
ChattanoogaSC0.130.1358.6258.620.020.02
FurmanSC0.130.1363.3363.330.030.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
SyracuseACC0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.126.906.90-0.11-0.11
TulaneAmer0.120.1219.3519.35-0.08-0.08
Virginia TechACC0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.1070.0070.000.040.04
BelmontOVC0.100.1077.7877.780.060.06
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Little RockSB0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.1044.4444.44-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.100.1017.2417.24-0.07-0.07
DavidsonA100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
LouisvilleACC0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.100.1088.2488.240.080.08
Georgia TechACC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
IllinoisB100.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
OregonP120.100.1084.8584.850.070.07
The CitadelSC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
Texas St.SB0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
WisconsinB100.070.0773.5373.530.040.04
Murray St.OVC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
MichiganB100.070.0768.5768.570.030.03
MassachusettsA100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
George WashingtonA100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
UCFAmer0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
XavierBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
SMUAmer0.070.0788.2488.240.060.06
MarquetteBE0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Michigan St.B100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
BradleyMVC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
DaytonA100.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
VMISC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0596.9796.970.050.05
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
DukeACC0.050.0577.1477.140.030.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
IndianaB100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
IowaB100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
TempleAmer0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Arizona St.P120.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
George MasonA100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
La SalleA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
USCP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
VermontAE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
HartfordAE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.020.0261.5461.540.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0232.0032.00-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0219.2319.23-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
RutgersB100.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0287.5087.500.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
TowsonCAA0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
TulsaAmer0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.020.0291.1891.180.020.02
VirginiaACC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
WagnerNEC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
ButlerBE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
DuquesneA100.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
High PointBSth0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0260.7160.710.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00