Liberty

Conference:	BSth
Expected RPI:	211.0
Current RPI:	211
Expected SOS:	286
Current SOS:	286
Current Record:	17-14
Expected Record:	17-14
Current Conf Record:	11-10
Expected Conf Record:	11-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-7
Current OOC Record:	6-4
Expected OOC Record:	6-4
Expected OOC RPI:	205
Expected OOC SOS:	261

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-14	211.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Liberty.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-14	Wake Forest (160.0)	ACC	A	66-79	W	100%
11-17	Mercer (174.0)	SC	H	48-63	L	0%
11-18	Houston (18.0)	Amer	H	66-68	L	0%
11-19	Quinnipiac (277.0)	MAAC	H	84-72	W	100%
11-27	Howard (339.0)	MEAC	H	75-55	W	100%
12-2	UNC Greensboro (65.0)	SC	H	75-76	L	0%
12-4	Georgia St. (120.0)	SB	A	74-77	W	100%
12-8	Maryland Eastern Shore (346.0)	MEAC	H	71-49	W	100%
12-21	Fort Wayne (209.0)	Sum	N	75-64	L	0%
12-22	Alabama St. (333.0)	SWAC	N	70-87	W	100%
12-30	Gardner Webb (244.0)	BSth	A	58-55	L	0%
1-2	Charleston Southern (261.0)	BSth	H	70-53	W	100%
1-6	Presbyterian (319.0)	BSth	H	60-48	W	100%
1-9	Winthrop (173.0)	BSth	A	70-73	W	100%
1-12	Longwood (337.0)	BSth	H	51-58	L	0%
1-15	Radford (128.0)	BSth	A	59-57	L	0%
1-18	High Point (273.0)	BSth	A	71-60	L	0%
1-21	UNC Asheville (130.0)	BSth	H	68-84	L	0%
1-23	Campbell (267.0)	BSth	H	85-94	L	0%
1-27	Presbyterian (319.0)	BSth	A	66-81	W	100%
2-1	Winthrop (173.0)	BSth	H	77-61	W	100%
2-3	Longwood (337.0)	BSth	A	55-67	W	100%
2-7	Charleston Southern (261.0)	BSth	A	87-75	L	0%
2-10	Gardner Webb (244.0)	BSth	H	77-65	W	100%
2-15	UNC Asheville (130.0)	BSth	A	69-82	W	100%
2-18	Campbell (267.0)	BSth	A	79-69	L	0%
2-22	Radford (128.0)	BSth	H	50-63	L	0%
2-24	High Point (273.0)	BSth	H	65-45	W	100%
3-1	Campbell (267.0)	BSth	N	59-73	W	100%
3-2	UNC Asheville (130.0)	BSth	A	64-69	W	100%
3-4	Radford (128.0)	BSth	A	55-52	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Liberty's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Liberty's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Liberty.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Liberty	BSth	26.66	26.66	53.55	53.55	1.89	1.89
Radford	BSth	5.96	5.96	58.62	58.62	1.03	1.03
UNC Asheville	BSth	5.93	5.93	64.29	64.29	1.69	1.69
Campbell	BSth	5.83	5.83	44.00	44.00	-0.70	-0.70
Longwood	BSth	4.44	4.44	10.71	10.71	-3.49	-3.49
Winthrop	BSth	4.43	4.43	61.54	61.54	1.02	1.02
Charleston Southern	BSth	4.40	4.40	42.31	42.31	-0.68	-0.68
Presbyterian	BSth	4.36	4.36	29.63	29.63	-1.78	-1.78
Gardner Webb	BSth	4.33	4.33	37.04	37.04	-1.12	-1.12
High Point	BSth	4.32	4.32	40.00	40.00	-0.86	-0.86
UNC Greensboro	SC	1.88	1.88	76.67	76.67	1.00	1.00
Wake Forest	ACC	1.69	1.69	36.67	36.67	-0.45	-0.45
Alabama St.	SWAC	1.67	1.67	26.67	26.67	-0.78	-0.78
Howard	MEAC	1.67	1.67	26.67	26.67	-0.78	-0.78
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	1.66	1.66	17.24	17.24	-1.09	-1.09
Mercer	SC	1.66	1.66	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Houston	Amer	1.64	1.64	78.12	78.12	0.92	0.92
Quinnipiac	MAAC	1.64	1.64	37.50	37.50	-0.41	-0.41
Fort Wayne	Sum	1.61	1.61	48.15	48.15	-0.06	-0.06
Georgia St.	SB	1.61	1.61	70.97	70.97	0.68	0.68
VMI	SC	0.35	0.35	25.00	25.00	-0.17	-0.17
Wofford	SC	0.30	0.30	60.00	60.00	0.06	0.06
The Citadel	SC	0.28	0.28	27.59	27.59	-0.12	-0.12
USC Upstate	ASun	0.28	0.28	10.71	10.71	-0.22	-0.22
Western Carolina	SC	0.24	0.24	36.67	36.67	-0.06	-0.06
Furman	SC	0.24	0.24	67.74	67.74	0.09	0.09
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.24	0.24	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.22	0.22	26.67	26.67	-0.10	-0.10
East Carolina	Amer	0.21	0.21	33.33	33.33	-0.07	-0.07
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.19	0.19	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.18	0.18	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Tennessee	SEC	0.17	0.17	75.76	75.76	0.09	0.09
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.16	0.16	71.88	71.88	0.07	0.07
Chattanooga	SC	0.16	0.16	25.81	25.81	-0.08	-0.08
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.15	0.15	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Fairfield	MAAC	0.15	0.15	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	CUSA	0.14	0.14	17.86	17.86	-0.09	-0.09
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.14	0.14	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.13	0.13	24.24	24.24	-0.07	-0.07
UCF	Amer	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.12	0.12	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Auburn	SEC	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Saint Louis	A10	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Samford	SC	0.11	0.11	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Clemson	ACC	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Monmouth	MAAC	0.10	0.10	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	CAA	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Southern	SB	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Cincinnati	Amer	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.09	0.09	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.09	0.09	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.09	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.09	0.09	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.09	0.09	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Florida St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Maryland	B10	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	6.67	6.67	-0.07	-0.07
Miami FL	ACC	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.08	0.08	26.92	26.92	-0.04	-0.04
Austin Peay	OVC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.08	0.08	84.85	84.85	0.05	0.05
Syracuse	ACC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.08	0.08	9.68	9.68	-0.06	-0.06
Arkansas St.	SB	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Nevada	MWC	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Ohio St.	B10	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
San Francisco	WCC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
UT Arlington	SB	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
South Florida	Amer	0.07	0.07	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Tulane	Amer	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Wichita St.	Amer	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
College of Charleston	CAA	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
William & Mary	CAA	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Davidson	A10	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Denver	Sum	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
VCU	A10	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Chicago St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	3.33	3.33	-0.05	-0.05
Florida	SEC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
American	Pat	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	15.62	15.62	-0.04	-0.04
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	93.94	93.94	0.05	0.05
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Memphis	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
SMU	Amer	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Temple	Amer	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Oakland	Horz	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Creighton	BE	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Penn	Ivy	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
UTEP	CUSA	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.02	0.02	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.02	0.02	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	Amer	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.02	0.02	23.08	23.08	-0.01	-0.01
Hartford	AE	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.02	0.02	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
LSU	SEC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Maine	AE	0.02	0.02	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	Slnd	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Providence	BE	0.02	0.02	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Vermont	AE	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01