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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Liberty

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:264.0
Current RPI:264
Expected SOS:237
Current SOS:237
Current Record:10-19
Expected Record:10-19
Current Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-8
Current OOC Record:0-10
Expected OOC Record:0-10
Expected OOC RPI:347
Expected OOC SOS:203



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-19264.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Liberty.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17William & Mary (67.0)CAAH59-70L0%0.0
11-26Appalachian St. (259.0)SBN62-73L0%0.0
11-27Western Michigan (202.0)MACN68-58L0%0.0
11-29Tulane (227.0)AmerN51-72L0%0.0
12-3Radford (192.0)BSthA56-52L0%0.0
12-5Charleston Southern (298.0)BSthH61-68L0%0.0
12-8Furman (167.0)SCA79-56L0%0.0
12-12Lamar (337.0)SlndH58-73L0%0.0
12-17Princeton (39.0)IvyA77-72L0%0.0
12-20St. Francis NY (276.0)NECA64-55L0%0.0
12-27VCU (37.0)A10A85-57L0%0.0
12-29Notre Dame (31.0)ACCA73-56L0%0.0
1-2UNC Asheville (137.0)BSthH69-76L0%0.0
1-6Coastal Carolina (164.0)BSthA61-62W100%0.0
1-9Campbell (308.0)BSthH55-52W100%0.0
1-14Charleston Southern (298.0)BSthA64-63L0%0.0
1-16Winthrop (130.0)BSthA74-58L0%0.0
1-19Longwood (323.0)BSthH55-53W100%0.0
1-23High Point (158.0)BSthH69-67W100%0.0
1-27Gardner Webb (210.0)BSthA55-69W100%0.0
1-30Presbyterian (319.0)BSthA61-65W100%0.0
2-2Winthrop (130.0)BSthH88-77W100%0.0
2-6High Point (158.0)BSthA76-80W100%0.0
2-13Longwood (323.0)BSthA68-69W100%0.0
2-18Radford (192.0)BSthH67-69L0%0.0
2-20Presbyterian (319.0)BSthH73-79L0%0.0
2-25UNC Asheville (137.0)BSthA73-56L0%0.0
2-27Gardner Webb (210.0)BSthH86-81W100%0.0
3-4UNC Asheville (137.0)BSthN80-49L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Liberty's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Liberty's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Liberty.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LibertyBSth26.4426.4435.9735.97-7.42-7.42
UNC AshevilleBSth6.176.1760.7160.711.321.32
WinthropBSth4.554.5570.3770.371.851.85
High PointBSth4.524.5269.2369.231.741.74
LongwoodBSth4.504.5025.0025.00-2.25-2.25
PresbyterianBSth4.494.4926.9226.92-2.07-2.07
Gardner WebbBSth4.484.4850.0050.000.000.00
RadfordBSth4.434.4344.4444.44-0.49-0.49
Charleston SouthernBSth4.404.4016.0016.00-2.99-2.99
Coastal CarolinaBSth2.802.8060.0060.000.560.56
CampbellBSth2.792.7934.6234.62-0.86-0.86
FurmanSC1.951.9550.0050.000.000.00
William & MaryCAA1.791.7960.7160.710.380.38
VCUA101.781.7869.7069.700.700.70
Appalachian St.SB1.781.7826.6726.67-0.83-0.83
TulaneAmer1.751.7533.3333.33-0.58-0.58
LamarSlnd1.721.7224.0024.00-0.90-0.90
Notre DameACC1.721.7264.5264.520.500.50
PrincetonIvy1.721.7276.9276.920.930.93
St. Francis NYNEC1.721.7243.3343.33-0.23-0.23
Western MichiganMAC1.721.7234.4834.48-0.54-0.54
East Tennessee St.SC0.230.2365.6265.620.070.07
VMISC0.210.2122.2222.22-0.11-0.11
DrexelCAA0.200.2020.0020.00-0.12-0.12
Western CarolinaSC0.200.2043.3343.33-0.03-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.180.1876.6776.670.100.10
North Carolina St.ACC0.180.1848.4848.48-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.180.1864.5264.520.050.05
RichmondA100.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
WoffordSC0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.150.1524.1424.14-0.08-0.08
HamptonMEAC0.150.1566.6766.670.050.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.150.1582.1482.140.100.10
UNC GreensboroSC0.150.1537.9337.93-0.04-0.04
ElonCAA0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.140.1444.1244.12-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.120.1265.5265.520.040.04
DartmouthIvy0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Virginia TechACC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
HofstraCAA0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
Florida St.ACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.120.1284.3884.380.080.08
Georgia SouthernSB0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
George MasonA100.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.110.1182.3582.350.070.07
Georgia TechACC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
RiderMAAC0.100.1039.3939.39-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0958.6258.620.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Miami FLACC0.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
IowaB100.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
DaytonA100.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0879.4179.410.050.05
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.05-0.05
DukeACC0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
Saint LouisA100.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
HoustonAmer0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
MemphisAmer0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
UCFAmer0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0756.0056.000.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0726.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
BrownIvy0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.060.0637.0437.04-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
YaleIvy0.060.0677.7877.780.040.04
MarquetteBE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Texas TechB120.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
LafayettePat0.060.0620.0020.00-0.04-0.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Penn St.B100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
SienaMAAC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
TowsonCAA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.060.0680.0080.000.040.04
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
ArmyPat0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
LSUSEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
MaineAE0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
UMBCAE0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0687.1087.100.040.04
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
WagnerNEC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0662.8662.860.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0320.8320.83-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0318.5218.52-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
LipscombASun0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.030.0375.0075.000.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
NJITASun0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
IllinoisB100.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
La SalleA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
TempleAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01