live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Liberty

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:172.0
Current RPI:172
Expected SOS:218
Current SOS:218
Current Record:16-13
Expected Record:16-13
Current Conf Record:14-5
Expected Conf Record:14-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-2
Current OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC RPI:271
Expected OOC SOS:64



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-13172.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Liberty.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15VCU (22.0)A10H59-64L0%0.0
11-19Indiana (79.0)B10A87-48L0%0.0
11-21UMass Lowell (309.0)AEH84-77W100%0.0
11-23Mississippi Valley St. (334.0)SWACH70-55W100%0.0
11-26William & Mary (110.0)CAAA79-70L0%0.0
12-3UNC Greensboro (95.0)SCA72-65L0%0.0
12-6Furman (96.0)SCH58-61L0%0.0
12-10Princeton (47.0)IvyH64-67L0%0.0
12-19Lamar (232.0)SlndA82-65L0%0.0
12-21Houston (54.0)AmerA77-54L0%0.0
12-29Presbyterian (347.0)BSthA61-77W100%0.0
12-31Charleston Southern (295.0)BSthA70-81W100%0.0
1-3UNC Asheville (73.0)BSthH57-70L0%0.0
1-7Campbell (246.0)BSthH61-54W100%0.0
1-11High Point (236.0)BSthA58-62W100%0.0
1-14Radford (227.0)BSthA64-71W100%0.0
1-19Gardner Webb (186.0)BSthH65-62W100%0.0
1-21Winthrop (70.0)BSthH48-61L0%0.0
1-26Longwood (343.0)BSthA62-93W100%0.0
1-28Campbell (246.0)BSthA40-72W100%0.0
1-31Presbyterian (347.0)BSthH71-51W100%0.0
2-4Radford (227.0)BSthH57-54W100%0.0
2-9Gardner Webb (186.0)BSthA87-92W100%0.0
2-11Charleston Southern (295.0)BSthH76-69W100%0.0
2-14High Point (236.0)BSthH55-52W100%0.0
2-18Winthrop (70.0)BSthA84-67L0%0.0
2-23Longwood (343.0)BSthH61-45W100%0.0
2-25UNC Asheville (73.0)BSthA63-45L0%0.0
3-2Radford (227.0)BSthN52-56L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Liberty's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Liberty's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Liberty.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LibertyBSth26.4926.4955.4755.472.902.90
RadfordBSth6.186.1840.7440.74-1.14-1.14
CampbellBSth4.724.7248.2848.28-0.16-0.16
WinthropBSth4.664.6678.5778.572.662.66
Gardner WebbBSth4.604.6057.1457.140.660.66
UNC AshevilleBSth4.594.5967.8667.861.641.64
PresbyterianBSth4.594.5911.5411.54-3.53-3.53
Charleston SouthernBSth4.574.5734.6234.62-1.40-1.40
High PointBSth4.534.5346.1546.15-0.35-0.35
LongwoodBSth4.514.5115.3815.38-3.12-3.12
FurmanSC2.012.0162.0762.070.490.49
UNC GreensboroSC1.961.9670.0070.000.780.78
VCUA101.811.8175.7675.760.930.93
William & MaryCAA1.791.7950.0050.000.000.00
IndianaB101.781.7853.1253.120.110.11
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.781.7822.5822.58-0.98-0.98
UMass LowellAE1.781.7834.4834.48-0.55-0.55
PrincetonIvy1.751.7577.7877.780.970.97
HoustonAmer1.721.7266.6766.670.570.57
LamarSlnd1.721.7250.0050.000.000.00
VMISC0.440.4414.2914.29-0.31-0.31
The CitadelSC0.260.2630.0030.00-0.10-0.10
USC UpstateASun0.240.2446.4346.43-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.230.2353.3353.330.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.230.2323.3323.33-0.12-0.12
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.230.2384.3884.380.160.16
GeorgiaSEC0.210.2156.2556.250.030.03
MercerSC0.200.2043.3343.33-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.200.2053.1253.120.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.180.1842.8642.86-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.150.1536.0036.00-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.150.1544.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
StetsonASun0.140.1427.5927.59-0.06-0.06
East Tennessee St.SC0.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
WoffordSC0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.120.1225.9325.93-0.06-0.06
Virginia TechACC0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
DrexelCAA0.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
James MadisonCAA0.120.1228.1228.12-0.05-0.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
MaineAE0.120.1219.3519.35-0.07-0.07
CornellIvy0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
NavyPat0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
West VirginiaB120.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
ChattanoogaSC0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
SMUAmer0.110.1188.2488.240.090.09
North CarolinaACC0.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
DaytonA100.110.1176.6776.670.060.06
PennIvy0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
HarvardIvy0.090.0961.5461.540.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
AkronMAC0.090.0975.7675.760.040.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
VermontAE0.090.0984.8584.850.060.06
KansasB120.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
NebraskaB100.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Saint LouisA100.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
MichiganB100.080.0868.5768.570.030.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
NorthwesternB100.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
WisconsinB100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
RichmondA100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
BrownIvy0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0655.8855.880.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
DelawareCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0619.2319.23-0.04-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0637.0437.04-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0636.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
TowsonCAA0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
AlbanyAE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
UMBCAE0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
ColgatePat0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
TulaneAmer0.060.0619.3519.35-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.056.906.90-0.05-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
LSUSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
IowaB100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
DavidsonA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
BucknellPat0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0377.1477.140.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
WagnerNEC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.030.0396.9796.970.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
La SalleA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00