Liberty

Conference:	BSth
Expected RPI:	309.6
Current RPI:	319
Expected SOS:	298
Current SOS:	323
Current Record:	6-16
Expected Record:	8-20
Current Conf Record:	4-9
Expected Conf Record:	5-13
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.12%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-9
Current OOC Record:	2-7
Expected OOC Record:	2-8
Expected OOC RPI:	330
Expected OOC SOS:	316

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-17	277.1	0.42%
10-18	289.0	3.34%
9-19	298.1	15.13%
8-20	306.6	32.71%
7-21	314.9	34.69%
6-22	322.2	13.70%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Liberty.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-9	Texas A&M (154.9)	B12	A	81-59	L	0%	0.0
11-14	William & Mary (304.7)	CAA	A	72-75	W	100%	0.0
11-18	Eastern Kentucky (207.4)	OVC	H	65-73	L	0%	0.0
11-19	Lehigh (109.7)	Pat	H	80-90	L	0%	0.0
11-20	William & Mary (304.7)	CAA	H	64-65	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Georgia St. (125.1)	CAA	A	72-50	L	0%	0.0
12-1	Campbell (174.5)	BSth	A	96-82	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Coastal Carolina (116.0)	BSth	A	78-68	L	0%	0.0
12-6	NC Wilmington (207.8)	CAA	H	68-77	L	0%	0.0
12-17	Hampton (307.2)	MEAC	H	74-65	W	100%	0.0
12-28	Richmond (135.3)	A10	A	77-61	L	0%	0.0
12-31	Charleston Southern (151.0)	BSth	H	76-81	L	0%	0.0
1-2	Presbyterian (253.5)	BSth	H	56-63	L	0%	0.0
1-7	NC Asheville (115.4)	BSth	A	98-75	L	0%	0.0
1-10	Virginia Military Inst (264.1)	BSth	A	71-57	L	0%	0.0
1-12	Radford (335.2)	BSth	H	69-64	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Winthrop (269.0)	BSth	H	61-64	L	0%	0.0
1-21	High Point (283.4)	BSth	A	78-84	W	100%	0.0
1-26	Winthrop (269.0)	BSth	A	65-63	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Radford (335.2)	BSth	A	65-67	W	100%	0.0
2-2	Gardner Webb (270.8)	BSth	H	63-58	W	100%	0.0
2-4	NC Asheville (115.4)	BSth	H	51-65	L	0%	0.0
2-9	Charleston Southern (151.0)	BSth	A	0-0		10%	-14.2
2-11	Presbyterian (253.5)	BSth	A	0-0		23%	-8.0
2-14	Virginia Military Inst (264.1)	BSth	H	0-0		53%	0.7
2-18	Morgan St. (264.2)	MEAC	A	0-0		21%	-8.7
2-23	Coastal Carolina (116.0)	BSth	H	0-0		22%	-8.3
2-25	Campbell (174.5)	BSth	H	0-0		32%	-5.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Liberty's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Liberty's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Liberty.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Liberty	BSth	26.51	26.47	27.27	26.85	-12.05	-12.26
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	3.19	4.58	42.11	41.69	-0.50	-0.76
Presbyterian	BSth	3.11	4.55	38.10	40.21	-0.74	-0.89
Campbell	BSth	3.21	4.53	54.17	53.64	0.27	0.33
Winthrop	BSth	5.36	4.51	28.57	29.57	-2.30	-1.84
Radford	BSth	5.28	4.49	9.52	14.07	-4.27	-3.23
NC Asheville	BSth	5.27	4.48	65.00	65.05	1.58	1.35
Charleston Southern	BSth	3.05	4.48	52.63	57.43	0.16	0.67
Coastal Carolina	BSth	2.94	4.48	70.59	70.51	1.21	1.84
William & Mary	CAA	4.89	3.88	9.09	10.83	-4.00	-3.04
High Point	BSth	3.25	2.86	33.33	34.01	-1.08	-0.91
Gardner Webb	BSth	3.11	2.84	36.36	40.16	-0.85	-0.56
NC Wilmington	CAA	2.60	2.02	36.36	33.82	-0.71	-0.65
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	2.57	2.00	47.83	50.01	-0.11	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	2.47	1.97	38.10	39.81	-0.59	-0.40
Georgia St.	CAA	2.47	1.97	65.22	68.65	0.75	0.73
Lehigh	Pat	2.41	1.88	72.73	74.02	1.10	0.90
Richmond	A10	2.42	1.88	47.83	46.77	-0.11	-0.12
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.10	1.85	25.00	36.05	-0.05	-0.51
Texas A&M	B12	2.27	1.79	50.00	44.22	0.00	-0.21
Old Dominion	CAA	0.25	0.31	60.00	58.29	0.05	0.05
Drexel	CAA	0.34	0.27	79.17	78.10	0.20	0.15
Delaware	CAA	0.29	0.27	47.83	50.65	-0.01	0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.38	0.27	80.00	78.06	0.23	0.15
The Citadel	SC	0.23	0.24	9.52	11.44	-0.18	-0.19
James Madison	CAA	0.34	0.24	40.00	40.18	-0.07	-0.05
George Mason	CAA	0.29	0.21	76.00	72.50	0.15	0.10
Northeastern	CAA	0.19	0.21	47.83	48.56	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.22	0.21	58.33	59.98	0.04	0.04
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.18	35.29	39.85	-0.01	-0.04
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.10	0.17	60.87	59.76	0.02	0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.21	0.17	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.16	0.16	44.44	41.71	-0.02	-0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.10	0.15	68.18	69.68	0.04	0.06
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.20	0.15	10.00	14.93	-0.16	-0.11
Howard	MEAC	0.20	0.15	18.18	22.22	-0.13	-0.08
Hofstra	CAA	0.10	0.15	32.00	35.39	-0.03	-0.04
Stetson	ASun	0.11	0.14	31.82	31.31	-0.04	-0.05
Kansas St.	B12	0.11	0.13	72.73	68.28	0.05	0.05
Western Carolina	SC	0.15	0.13	34.78	37.24	-0.05	-0.03
Longwood	ind	0.16	0.13	30.00	27.84	-0.06	-0.06
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.15	0.13	70.83	64.42	0.06	0.04
Army	Pat	0.10	0.13	40.91	41.72	-0.02	-0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.15	0.13	69.57	65.47	0.06	0.04
Navy	Pat	0.10	0.13	9.52	13.19	-0.08	-0.09
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.12	20.00	19.96	-0.03	-0.07
Wake Forest	ACC	0.20	0.12	47.83	43.66	-0.01	-0.02
Davidson	SC	0.15	0.12	76.19	76.76	0.08	0.07
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.12	35.00	39.29	-0.01	-0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.10	0.12	42.11	49.81	-0.02	-0.00
Missouri	B12	0.15	0.12	91.30	87.18	0.12	0.09
St. John's	BE	0.20	0.12	43.48	40.28	-0.03	-0.02
American	Pat	0.15	0.12	65.22	63.79	0.05	0.03
Towson	CAA	0.19	0.12	4.00	5.26	-0.18	-0.11
Charlotte	A10	0.15	0.12	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.09	0.12	25.00	28.52	-0.05	-0.05
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.10	59.09	57.93	0.01	0.02
Florida International	SB	0.11	0.10	33.33	37.16	-0.04	-0.03
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.06	0.10	13.64	16.35	-0.04	-0.07
Ohio	MAC	0.00	0.10	81.82	77.20	0.00	0.05
Furman	SC	0.10	0.09	47.62	48.83	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.09	34.78	38.42	-0.01	-0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.09	38.89	43.93	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.10	0.09	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.10	0.09	73.91	68.43	0.05	0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.15	0.09	59.09	50.82	0.03	0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.09	33.33	37.25	-0.02	-0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.10	0.09	26.32	29.71	-0.05	-0.04
Bucknell	Pat	0.10	0.09	73.91	75.00	0.05	0.05
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.09	62.50	62.49	0.01	0.02
Fordham	A10	0.15	0.09	40.91	34.50	-0.03	-0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.14	0.09	79.17	80.10	0.08	0.05
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.06	0.07	59.09	57.28	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.07	47.37	42.16	-0.00	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.07	72.73	71.71	0.03	0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.07	86.96	85.46	0.04	0.05
Pittsburgh	BE	0.06	0.07	60.87	58.16	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.06	0.07	82.61	80.42	0.04	0.04
Connecticut	BE	0.10	0.07	68.18	63.99	0.04	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.10	0.07	86.96	83.16	0.08	0.04
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.10	0.07	54.55	56.09	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.10	0.07	45.45	44.66	-0.01	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.10	0.07	18.18	15.01	-0.07	-0.05
Marshall	CUSA	0.10	0.06	59.09	59.72	0.02	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.06	47.06	50.75	-0.00	0.00
Drake	MVC	0.10	0.06	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.06	86.36	83.09	0.04	0.04
Georgia	SEC	0.10	0.06	45.45	41.20	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.10	0.06	17.39	22.00	-0.06	-0.04
Marquette	BE	0.10	0.06	79.17	75.98	0.06	0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.06	40.91	39.56	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.10	0.06	81.82	76.80	0.06	0.03
Western Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.06	40.91	42.96	-0.02	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.06	100.00	94.55	0.05	0.06
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.00	0.06	19.05	22.37	-0.00	-0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.09	0.06	33.33	35.97	-0.03	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.11	0.06	90.91	83.85	0.09	0.04
Binghamton	AE	0.00	0.06	0.00	4.02	-0.00	-0.06
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.06	30.43	29.50	-0.02	-0.03
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.06	33.33	34.47	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.06	40.91	38.38	-0.02	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.10	0.06	40.91	42.05	-0.02	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.06	78.26	78.39	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.10	0.06	95.83	92.57	0.09	0.05
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.06	43.48	42.95	-0.01	-0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.10	0.06	70.83	71.05	0.04	0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.10	0.06	34.78	33.43	-0.03	-0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.10	0.06	78.26	72.34	0.06	0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.06	45.45	46.99	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.06	59.09	54.70	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.06	45.45	40.70	-0.00	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.10	0.06	41.67	38.67	-0.02	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.06	60.87	61.37	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.06	31.82	25.98	-0.02	-0.03
Xavier	A10	0.00	0.06	65.22	63.74	0.00	0.02
Georgia Southern	SC	0.09	0.06	40.00	41.30	-0.02	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.06	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.05	0.06	4.76	9.95	-0.04	-0.05
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.06	87.50	85.41	0.03	0.04
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.06	54.17	49.44	0.00	-0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.09	0.06	30.00	34.15	-0.04	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.00	0.06	55.00	54.48	0.00	0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.10	0.06	54.55	57.69	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.06	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.09	0.06	20.83	20.60	-0.06	-0.03
Rutgers	BE	0.10	0.06	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.10	0.06	44.00	45.89	-0.01	-0.00
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.06	34.78	32.08	-0.01	-0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.03	71.43	66.60	0.02	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.03	65.22	60.58	0.02	0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.00	0.03	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.00	0.03	59.09	57.76	0.00	0.00
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.00	0.03	82.61	81.44	0.00	0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.00	0.03	56.52	53.77	0.00	0.00
Southern California	P12	0.00	0.03	25.00	25.13	-0.00	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	16.67	23.02	-0.04	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.15	0.02	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.03	8.33	10.86	-0.04	-0.02
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.03	27.27	35.02	-0.02	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.03	36.84	41.45	-0.01	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.03	8.70	12.13	-0.04	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.03	82.61	77.63	0.04	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	62.50	62.06	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.03	75.00	75.78	0.02	0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.00	0.03	35.00	35.31	-0.00	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.03	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.03	8.70	8.99	-0.04	-0.03
Manhattan	MAAC	0.00	0.03	68.00	69.07	0.00	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.03	76.19	72.91	0.03	0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	57.15	0.01	0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.03	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	26.32	29.79	-0.03	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.03	45.00	46.13	-0.01	-0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.03	21.74	22.76	-0.03	-0.02
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.03	21.74	24.58	-0.03	-0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.03	4.35	9.66	-0.04	-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.03	18.18	21.13	-0.03	-0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.03	38.10	40.81	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.03	82.61	84.57	0.03	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.00	0.03	38.10	42.78	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.03	36.36	39.72	-0.01	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	41.18	42.61	-0.01	-0.00
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.03	21.74	21.70	-0.03	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.03	68.00	70.03	0.02	0.01
Samford	SC	0.05	0.03	33.33	35.26	-0.02	-0.01
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.00	0.03	57.14	60.75	0.00	0.01
Washington	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	66.54	0.02	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.03	59.09	56.35	0.01	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.03	72.73	64.43	0.02	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.00	0.03	70.83	68.82	0.00	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.58	0.02	0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.03	34.78	33.46	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.03	60.00	59.06	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.00	0.03	77.27	77.67	0.00	0.02
Temple	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	75.06	0.03	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.79	0.00	0.00