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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Liberty

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:311.0
Current RPI:311
Expected SOS:270
Current SOS:270
Current Record:8-21
Expected Record:8-21
Current Conf Record:5-12
Expected Conf Record:5-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-11
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:265
Expected OOC SOS:159



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-21311.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Liberty.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12William & Mary (119.0)CAAA84-72L0%0.0
11-16Western Carolina (221.0)SCH63-68L0%0.0
11-18UNC Wilmington (281.0)CAAH76-87L0%0.0
11-23Virginia (8.0)ACCA75-53L0%0.0
11-26Missouri St. (85.0)MVCA54-52L0%0.0
11-29Hampton (204.0)MEACN70-53W100%0.0
11-30Sam Houston St. (112.0)SlndN62-58W100%0.0
12-14Austin Peay (305.0)OVCA77-71L0%0.0
12-17Howard (323.0)MEACH77-59W100%0.0
12-20Furman (339.0)SCA86-83L0%0.0
1-1Delaware (65.0)CAAA77-64L0%0.0
1-4Princeton (122.0)IvyH74-80L0%0.0
1-8Radford (240.0)BSthA72-63L0%0.0
1-11VMI (211.0)BSthA80-85W100%0.0
1-14Campbell (316.0)BSthH71-68W100%0.0
1-18High Point (172.0)BSthH70-76L0%0.0
1-22Longwood (337.0)BSthA69-66L0%0.0
1-25Presbyterian (349.0)BSthH65-53W100%0.0
1-29Coastal Carolina (196.0)BSthA66-64L0%0.0
2-1Charleston Southern (268.0)BSthA80-66L0%0.0
2-4Winthrop (168.0)BSthH62-73L0%0.0
2-8UNC Asheville (201.0)BSthA75-72L0%0.0
2-11Gardner Webb (241.0)BSthH52-68L0%0.0
2-15VMI (211.0)BSthH70-77L0%0.0
2-19High Point (172.0)BSthA67-60L0%0.0
2-22Campbell (316.0)BSthA59-79W100%0.0
2-25Longwood (337.0)BSthH90-76W100%0.0
3-1Radford (240.0)BSthH83-87L0%0.0
3-5Winthrop (168.0)BSthN77-65L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Liberty's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Liberty's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Liberty.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LibertyBSth26.2226.2227.0727.07-12.03-12.03
RadfordBSth4.244.2457.1457.140.610.61
High PointBSth4.234.2346.1546.15-0.33-0.33
VMIBSth4.224.2256.0056.000.510.51
CampbellBSth4.204.2034.6234.62-1.29-1.29
WinthropBSth4.204.2053.5753.570.300.30
LongwoodBSth4.174.1711.5411.54-3.21-3.21
Charleston SouthernBSth2.572.5730.7730.77-0.99-0.99
Coastal CarolinaBSth2.562.5658.6258.620.440.44
UNC AshevilleBSth2.552.5546.4346.43-0.18-0.18
Gardner WebbBSth2.542.5448.2848.28-0.09-0.09
PresbyterianBSth2.472.4713.7913.79-1.79-1.79
William & MaryCAA2.042.0460.0060.000.410.41
HamptonMEAC2.002.0062.0762.070.480.48
DelawareCAA1.961.9672.7372.730.890.89
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.951.9520.6920.69-1.15-1.15
Western CarolinaSC1.851.8550.0050.000.000.00
FurmanSC1.811.8123.0823.08-0.97-0.97
HowardMEAC1.811.8120.0020.00-1.09-1.09
VirginiaACC1.781.7881.8281.821.131.13
Missouri St.MVC1.781.7860.0060.000.360.36
Austin PeayOVC1.721.7233.3333.33-0.57-0.57
PrincetonIvy1.721.7269.2369.230.660.66
Sam Houston St.Slnd1.721.7271.4371.430.740.74
James MadisonCAA0.370.3735.4835.48-0.11-0.11
WoffordSC0.360.3658.6258.620.060.06
The CitadelSC0.300.3013.7913.79-0.22-0.22
Virginia TechACC0.290.2929.0329.03-0.12-0.12
College of CharlestonCAA0.280.2841.9441.94-0.05-0.05
Georgia SouthernSC0.280.2838.7138.71-0.06-0.06
Appalachian St.SC0.240.2419.2319.23-0.14-0.14
TowsonCAA0.220.2267.7467.740.080.08
HofstraCAA0.220.2230.3030.30-0.09-0.09
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.200.2025.8125.81-0.10-0.10
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.200.2083.8783.870.140.14
Delaware St.MEAC0.200.2025.0025.00-0.10-0.10
NortheasternCAA0.190.1934.3834.38-0.06-0.06
East CarolinaCUSA0.180.1844.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.180.1893.1093.100.150.15
ElonSC0.180.1855.1755.170.020.02
SamfordSC0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
UNC GreensboroSC0.180.1837.9337.93-0.04-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.180.1851.7251.720.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.170.1748.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
DrexelCAA0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.150.1570.9770.970.060.06
ClemsonACC0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
DavidsonSC0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.140.1448.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.130.1351.8551.850.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.130.1338.4638.46-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.120.123.703.70-0.11-0.11
East Tennessee St.ASun0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.1117.8617.86-0.07-0.07
Wichita St.MVC0.110.11100.00100.000.110.11
DukeACC0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
Florida St.ACC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Penn St.B100.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.090.0986.2186.210.070.07
Wright St.Horz0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
OhioMAC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSlnd0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
SyracuseACC0.090.0984.3884.380.060.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
VCUA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
PittsburghACC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Notre DameACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
PennIvy0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
YaleIvy0.060.0651.8551.850.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0624.0024.00-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0678.7978.790.040.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0641.1841.18-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
TCUB120.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RutgersAmer0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
George WashingtonA100.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0616.1316.13-0.04-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
BradleyMVC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
SMUAmer0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MarylandACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
BucknellPat0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
PacificWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
IUPUISum0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
MinnesotaB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Western KentuckySB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
LouisvilleAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.2121.21-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
USCP120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
NavyPat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
WisconsinB100.030.0378.7978.790.010.01