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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Liberty

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:191.4
Current RPI:244
Expected SOS:220
Current SOS:210
Current Record:2-3
Expected Record:14-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-4
Current OOC Record:2-3
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:183
Expected OOC SOS:50



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-668.00.01%
21-772.20.13%
20-889.10.50%
19-9102.61.53%
18-10119.44.07%
17-11137.28.71%
16-12155.813.20%
15-13175.917.51%
14-14196.418.49%
13-15217.115.67%
12-16236.710.08%
11-17256.86.08%
10-18273.72.78%
9-19291.40.89%
8-20304.10.27%
7-21316.00.07%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Liberty.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15VCU (31.1)A10H59-64L0%0.0
11-19Indiana (20.3)B10A87-48L0%0.0
11-21UMass Lowell (255.3)AEH84-77W100%0.0
11-23Mississippi Valley St. (315.8)SWACH70-55W100%0.0
11-26William & Mary (121.0)CAAA79-70L0%0.0
12-3UNC Greensboro (159.8)SCA0-026%-7.6
12-6Furman (185.5)SCH0-050%0.0
12-10Princeton (95.0)IvyH0-028%-7.0
12-19Lamar (290.4)SlndA0-057%2.0
12-21Houston (42.7)AmerA0-04%-20.5
12-29Presbyterian (321.5)BSthA0-071%6.7
12-31Charleston Southern (257.4)BSthA0-054%1.1
1-3UNC Asheville (105.8)BSthH0-044%-1.9
1-7Campbell (309.0)BSthH0-081%10.5
1-11High Point (211.4)BSthA0-044%-1.9
1-14Radford (250.4)BSthA0-055%1.6
1-19Gardner Webb (214.7)BSthH0-061%3.3
1-21Winthrop (119.7)BSthH0-041%-2.8
1-26Longwood (325.2)BSthA0-070%6.4
1-28Campbell (309.0)BSthA0-064%4.3
1-31Presbyterian (321.5)BSthH0-086%12.9
2-4Radford (250.4)BSthH0-074%7.7
2-9Gardner Webb (214.7)BSthA0-040%-2.9
2-11Charleston Southern (257.4)BSthH0-073%7.3
2-14High Point (211.4)BSthH0-064%4.3
2-18Winthrop (119.7)BSthA0-023%-9.0
2-23Longwood (325.2)BSthH0-085%12.6
2-25UNC Asheville (105.8)BSthA0-025%-8.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Liberty's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Liberty's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Liberty.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LibertyBSth28.7326.4831.5850.79-10.580.42
UNC AshevilleBSth0.714.7150.0064.780.001.39
PresbyterianBSth1.004.7133.3327.59-0.33-2.11
High PointBSth0.004.6550.0051.650.000.15
Gardner WebbBSth0.004.6520.0048.30-0.00-0.16
WinthropBSth0.004.6460.0070.670.001.92
RadfordBSth0.004.6233.3336.38-0.00-1.26
CampbellBSth0.004.6125.0034.03-0.00-1.47
LongwoodBSth0.004.6125.0024.86-0.00-2.32
Charleston SouthernBSth0.004.6125.0038.88-0.00-1.02
FurmanSC0.002.1120.0049.36-0.00-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.002.0466.6757.860.000.32
VCUA1010.001.8883.3377.426.671.03
William & MaryCAA10.001.8525.0053.73-5.000.14
IndianaB1011.181.8480.0074.236.710.89
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC11.461.840.0025.60-11.46-0.90
UMass LowellAE11.391.8428.5742.21-4.88-0.29
PrincetonIvy0.711.8125.0063.63-0.360.49
HoustonAmer0.001.7983.3375.710.000.92
LamarSlnd0.001.7960.0044.000.00-0.21
VMISC0.000.450.0021.15-0.00-0.26
USC UpstateASun0.000.2633.3338.20-0.00-0.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.2683.3377.170.000.14
The CitadelSC0.000.2640.0027.05-0.00-0.12
Western CarolinaSC0.000.2516.6718.96-0.00-0.16
GeorgiaSEC0.000.2266.6754.380.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.200.0034.18-0.00-0.06
ElonCAA0.000.1983.3358.030.000.03
SamfordSC0.000.1957.1455.810.000.02
MercerSC0.000.1950.0053.050.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.1725.0053.29-0.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1616.6737.09-0.00-0.04
George MasonA100.000.1557.1442.940.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.1385.7162.410.000.03
DartmouthIvy0.000.130.0023.47-0.00-0.07
Virginia TechACC0.000.1385.7162.920.000.03
James MadisonCAA0.000.130.0028.15-0.00-0.06
DrexelCAA0.000.1342.8636.82-0.00-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1350.0045.410.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.1328.5728.26-0.00-0.06
CornellIvy0.000.1328.5730.63-0.00-0.05
NavyPat0.000.1328.5743.62-0.00-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1375.0047.510.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.1316.6725.61-0.00-0.06
New HampshireAE0.000.1350.0057.480.000.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.1366.6769.810.000.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1383.3380.700.000.08
WoffordSC0.000.130.0033.58-0.00-0.04
DaytonA100.000.1266.6772.440.000.06
IllinoisB100.000.1257.1442.660.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.1257.1469.300.000.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.1216.6732.62-0.00-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.1025.0056.71-0.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.100.0043.04-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1050.0061.810.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.1071.4352.370.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.090.0038.51-0.00-0.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0933.3326.75-0.00-0.04
HowardMEAC0.000.090.0038.26-0.00-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.0950.0043.610.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.830.0985.7180.010.600.06
West VirginiaB120.560.0983.3380.550.370.06
Rhode IslandA100.000.0971.4370.330.000.04
KansasB120.830.0985.7176.170.600.05
Ohio St.B100.000.0985.7172.660.000.04
VermontAE0.000.0962.5071.630.000.04
MichiganB100.000.0971.4366.530.000.03
BinghamtonAE0.710.0942.8640.94-0.10-0.02
Fort WayneSum2.010.0966.6770.930.670.04
NorthwesternB100.560.0971.4366.220.240.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.0766.6756.020.000.01
BrownIvy0.000.0750.0042.420.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0742.8642.47-0.00-0.01
PennIvy0.000.0740.0057.97-0.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.0733.3364.14-0.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0750.0052.330.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.0750.0058.980.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.0720.0041.31-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0762.5056.500.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.07100.0076.650.000.04
DelawareCAA0.000.0740.0040.65-0.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0757.1440.550.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0733.3338.19-0.00-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.070.0020.01-0.00-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0742.8637.25-0.00-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0757.1448.240.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.070.0034.01-0.00-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0783.3356.560.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0750.0058.600.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0740.0043.86-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0725.0034.47-0.00-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.07100.0069.770.000.03
Texas TechB120.000.0785.7163.780.000.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0750.0054.490.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.0683.3369.840.000.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0666.6753.460.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0650.0055.850.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0685.7155.890.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0685.7155.550.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0657.1448.860.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0650.0046.780.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0625.0024.28-0.00-0.03
LouisvilleACC1.000.0685.7175.950.710.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0666.6765.810.000.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0628.5739.44-0.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0628.5750.51-0.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0650.0060.380.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0685.7180.960.000.04
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0633.3338.76-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0612.5022.55-0.00-0.03
MemphisAmer0.000.0685.7159.740.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0616.6733.82-0.00-0.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0614.2926.81-0.00-0.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0039.200.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0683.3374.620.000.03
UMBCAE0.000.0680.0055.340.000.01
LSUSEC0.710.0671.4349.770.31-0.00
MassachusettsA100.620.0683.3358.080.420.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0013.30-0.00-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0614.2934.56-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.39-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0024.25-0.00-0.03
DavidsonA100.000.0683.3368.880.000.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0628.5734.18-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.060.0042.55-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.560.0650.0061.590.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0662.5043.960.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0671.4374.450.000.03
RichmondA100.000.0657.1448.600.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.0625.0056.92-0.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0657.1467.020.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.0675.0073.840.000.03
George WashingtonA100.000.0657.1444.160.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0375.0067.660.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.0371.4368.660.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0333.3335.92-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0383.3363.610.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0350.0050.940.000.00
LafayettePat0.000.0333.3331.87-0.00-0.01
LehighPat0.000.0333.3367.01-0.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0371.4371.570.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0314.2929.15-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC1.000.0366.6756.360.330.00
DePaulBE0.000.0380.0035.960.00-0.01
DukeACC1.000.0387.5078.680.750.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0360.0039.610.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0314.2929.81-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.030.0037.92-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0325.0030.93-0.00-0.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0328.5723.76-0.00-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0383.3350.740.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0024.19-0.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0350.0056.430.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0328.5728.46-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0350.0047.560.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.32-0.00-0.02
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0082.550.000.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.77-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0314.2928.66-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0357.1461.940.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0383.3362.840.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0350.0053.530.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0340.0037.65-0.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.620.0383.3357.990.420.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.0333.3340.49-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.620.0342.8635.68-0.09-0.01
NJITASun0.000.0342.8650.32-0.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0342.8638.05-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0357.1447.220.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0366.6732.240.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0371.4363.570.000.01
WagnerNEC0.620.0333.3353.85-0.210.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0340.0041.65-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.710.03100.0074.460.710.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0075.690.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0316.6736.35-0.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.030.0021.30-0.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.0337.5034.65-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0357.1443.680.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0366.6739.720.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.560.03100.0091.060.560.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0350.0056.260.000.00
IowaB100.000.0342.8644.33-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0371.4368.970.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.560.0350.0051.820.000.00
La SalleA100.000.0360.0051.780.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0320.0032.60-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0385.7156.490.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0385.7173.010.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0385.7165.670.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0383.3344.770.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0320.0042.63-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0357.1440.590.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0350.0038.430.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6770.740.000.01
St. John'sBE0.710.0328.5733.92-0.31-0.01