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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Liberty

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:347.0
Current RPI:347
Expected SOS:321
Current SOS:321
Current Record:4-24
Expected Record:4-24
Current Conf Record:2-17
Expected Conf Record:2-17
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-13
Current OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:340
Expected OOC SOS:311



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
4-24347.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Liberty.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Delaware (253.0)CAAH61-55W100%0.0
11-19Virginia Tech (228.0)ACCA73-63L0%0.0
11-22Miami OH (229.0)MACA63-52L0%0.0
11-25North Florida (162.0)ASunN77-57L0%0.0
11-26Morgan St. (337.0)MEACN50-51L0%0.0
12-1Furman (293.0)SCH66-52W100%0.0
12-6St. Francis NY (170.0)NECH54-65L0%0.0
12-17UNC Wilmington (145.0)CAAA73-70L0%0.0
12-22Princeton (191.0)IvyA65-47L0%0.0
12-31Campbell (323.0)BSthA53-46L0%0.0
1-3Presbyterian (315.0)BSthH58-62L0%0.0
1-8UNC Asheville (249.0)BSthA71-54L0%0.0
1-10Coastal Carolina (124.0)BSthH54-69L0%0.0
1-14Charleston Southern (164.0)BSthA80-58L0%0.0
1-17Longwood (316.0)BSthA85-71L0%0.0
1-22Winthrop (210.0)BSthH56-71L0%0.0
1-24Radford (154.0)BSthA84-76L0%0.0
1-29High Point (89.0)BSthH53-72L0%0.0
1-31Charleston Southern (164.0)BSthH62-74L0%0.0
2-4Winthrop (210.0)BSthA74-61L0%0.0
2-6Presbyterian (315.0)BSthA69-61L0%0.0
2-10Campbell (323.0)BSthH73-60W100%0.0
2-14Coastal Carolina (124.0)BSthA96-56L0%0.0
2-17Longwood (316.0)BSthH72-78L0%0.0
2-21Gardner Webb (146.0)BSthA77-67L0%0.0
2-26Radford (154.0)BSthH80-69W100%0.0
2-28UNC Asheville (249.0)BSthH77-95L0%0.0
3-4UNC Asheville (249.0)BSthN80-70L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Liberty's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Liberty's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Liberty.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LibertyBSth26.4726.479.849.84-21.26-21.26
UNC AshevilleBSth6.286.2836.0036.00-1.76-1.76
LongwoodBSth4.774.7723.3323.33-2.54-2.54
Coastal CarolinaBSth4.694.6966.6766.671.561.56
WinthropBSth4.684.6851.8551.850.170.17
RadfordBSth4.594.5962.9662.961.191.19
PresbyterianBSth4.584.5815.3815.38-3.17-3.17
CampbellBSth4.574.5722.2222.22-2.54-2.54
Charleston SouthernBSth4.524.5256.0056.000.540.54
Gardner WebbBSth3.023.0251.7251.720.100.10
High PointBSth2.872.8766.6766.670.960.96
Virginia TechACC1.971.9731.2531.25-0.74-0.74
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.911.9155.1755.170.200.20
Miami OHMAC1.871.8736.6736.67-0.50-0.50
DelawareCAA1.851.8534.4834.48-0.57-0.57
FurmanSC1.821.8230.0030.00-0.73-0.73
Morgan St.MEAC1.811.8120.0020.00-1.09-1.09
North FloridaASun1.791.7963.3363.330.480.48
PrincetonIvy1.791.7950.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC1.791.7965.6265.620.560.56
James MadisonCAA0.330.3359.3859.380.060.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.270.2727.2727.27-0.12-0.12
UNC GreensboroSC0.240.2426.6726.67-0.11-0.11
Western CarolinaSC0.220.2243.3343.33-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.220.2281.2581.250.140.14
East Tennessee St.SC0.210.2150.0050.000.000.00
ElonCAA0.210.2141.9441.94-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.180.1840.6240.62-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.180.1867.6567.650.060.06
Jacksonville St.OVC0.160.1634.4834.48-0.05-0.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.150.1524.1424.14-0.08-0.08
South Carolina St.MEAC0.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
William & MaryCAA0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
ClemsonACC0.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.150.1551.5251.520.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.150.1566.6766.670.050.05
TowsonCAA0.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.150.1548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.130.136.906.90-0.11-0.11
MississippiSEC0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
AuburnSEC0.120.1241.1841.18-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
DukeACC0.120.1287.8887.880.090.09
Tennessee MartinOVC0.120.1257.1457.140.020.02
DrexelCAA0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
DartmouthIvy0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
LipscombASun0.120.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
VMISC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
The CitadelSC0.110.1129.6329.63-0.05-0.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.090.0931.0331.03-0.04-0.04
RichmondA100.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
DavidsonA100.090.0976.6776.670.050.05
HowardMEAC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
TCUB120.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.090.0944.4444.44-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
OhioMAC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0965.5265.520.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
StetsonASun0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0890.9190.910.070.07
Ball St.MAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
IowaB100.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0781.2581.250.040.04
AmericanPat0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.060.0674.0774.070.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
MarylandB100.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
PennIvy0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
UCLAP120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
YaleIvy0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
RiderMAAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
MinnesotaB100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
PurdueB100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
AkronMAC0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.060.0652.9452.940.000.00
George WashingtonA100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
UMBCAE0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
BryantNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.04-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
SyracuseACC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0590.6290.620.040.04
WagnerNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
George MasonA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.010.01
LafayettePat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
StanfordP120.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
TempleAmer0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0394.1294.120.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0375.8675.860.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
NJITind0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
PittsburghACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
RutgersB100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01