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Through games of Dec 17, 2014.


Liberty

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:321.1
Current RPI:351
Expected SOS:340
Current SOS:351
Current Record:2-6
Expected Record:9-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-10
Current OOC Record:2-6
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:351
Expected OOC SOS:348



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-10194.30.06%
16-11217.90.09%
15-12236.20.36%
14-13258.41.49%
13-14278.24.18%
12-15295.68.46%
11-16309.614.42%
10-17320.219.60%
9-18328.720.14%
8-19335.515.86%
7-20341.09.44%
6-21344.94.36%
5-22347.91.31%
4-23348.90.20%
3-24350.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Liberty.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Delaware (331.4)CAAH61-55W100%0.0
11-19Virginia Tech (213.3)ACCA73-63L0%0.0
11-22Miami OH (277.2)MACA63-52L0%0.0
11-25North Florida (157.2)ASunN77-57L0%0.0
11-26Morgan St. (298.8)MEACN50-51L0%0.0
12-1Furman (290.9)SCH66-52W100%0.0
12-6St. Francis NY (269.4)NECH54-65L0%0.0
12-17UNC Wilmington (118.0)CAAA73-70L0%0.0
12-22Princeton (239.3)IvyA0-019%-10.4
12-31Campbell (222.4)BSthA0-023%-8.7
1-3Presbyterian (340.8)BSthH0-090%15.0
1-8UNC Asheville (219.5)BSthA0-019%-10.4
1-10Coastal Carolina (137.4)BSthH0-029%-6.4
1-14Charleston Southern (203.9)BSthA0-022%-9.2
1-17Longwood (316.7)BSthA0-045%-1.4
1-22Winthrop (252.4)BSthH0-050%-0.0
1-24Radford (196.0)BSthA0-020%-9.9
1-29High Point (156.9)BSthH0-046%-1.1
1-31Charleston Southern (203.9)BSthH0-048%-0.5
2-4Winthrop (252.4)BSthA0-023%-8.8
2-6Presbyterian (340.8)BSthA0-070%6.2
2-10Campbell (222.4)BSthH0-050%0.0
2-14Coastal Carolina (137.4)BSthA0-010%-15.2
2-17Longwood (316.7)BSthH0-073%7.3
2-21Gardner Webb (168.8)BSthA0-018%-10.8
2-26Radford (196.0)BSthH0-046%-1.1
2-28UNC Asheville (219.5)BSthH0-045%-1.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Liberty's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Liberty's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Liberty.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LibertyBSth28.0226.4518.7533.55-17.52-8.70
LongwoodBSth0.314.7420.0025.65-0.19-2.31
PresbyterianBSth0.004.730.007.81-0.00-3.99
CampbellBSth0.004.7125.0043.36-0.00-0.63
RadfordBSth0.354.7050.0055.090.000.48
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.004.6666.6769.790.001.84
UNC AshevilleBSth0.004.6614.2943.63-0.00-0.59
Charleston SouthernBSth0.004.6642.8649.10-0.00-0.08
WinthropBSth0.004.6628.5745.81-0.00-0.39
Gardner WebbBSth0.392.9937.5048.84-0.10-0.07
High PointBSth0.002.9662.5056.350.000.38
Virginia TechACC6.882.0550.0036.030.00-0.57
UNC WilmingtonCAA6.251.9840.0051.99-1.250.08
Miami OHMAC6.601.9522.2225.88-3.67-0.94
DelawareCAA6.251.920.009.06-6.25-1.57
FurmanSC6.251.8928.5730.38-2.68-0.74
Morgan St.MEAC6.601.8811.1135.03-5.13-0.56
North FloridaASun6.251.8537.5055.32-1.560.20
PrincetonIvy0.001.8527.2736.22-0.00-0.51
St. Francis NYNEC6.251.8512.5038.72-4.69-0.42
James MadisonCAA0.000.3670.0060.810.000.08
UNC GreensboroSC0.520.2722.2237.53-0.29-0.07
College of CharlestonCAA0.390.2650.0044.640.00-0.03
ElonCAA0.970.2237.5048.14-0.24-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.2171.4364.070.000.06
Western CarolinaSC0.000.2122.2245.85-0.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.2177.7876.160.000.11
SamfordSC0.390.2033.3331.37-0.13-0.08
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1718.1827.98-0.00-0.08
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.1720.0029.28-0.00-0.07
ClemsonACC0.000.1766.6745.400.00-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.1657.1456.560.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.350.1650.0037.400.00-0.04
TowsonCAA0.310.1666.6751.310.100.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.790.1640.0046.88-0.16-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.1444.4435.62-0.00-0.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.140.0017.71-0.00-0.09
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1455.5638.460.00-0.03
MississippiSEC0.000.1466.6752.510.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.1444.4451.18-0.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.1350.0038.030.00-0.03
DukeACC0.390.13100.0087.440.390.10
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1362.5066.710.000.04
VMISC0.520.1333.3338.88-0.17-0.03
Ohio St.B100.000.1390.0084.620.000.09
CornellIvy0.000.1355.5648.590.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.1325.0037.61-0.00-0.03
HofstraCAA0.000.1377.7878.200.000.07
NortheasternCAA0.000.1366.6757.570.000.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1350.0058.660.000.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.1344.4447.44-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.1371.4363.540.000.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1328.5741.30-0.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.660.1250.0056.370.000.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1037.5038.59-0.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.350.1062.5064.360.090.03
Wright St.Horz0.310.1055.5653.800.030.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1081.8264.060.000.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1075.0071.470.000.04
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1010.0018.36-0.00-0.06
RichmondA100.000.1050.0057.040.000.01
TCUB120.390.10100.0066.280.390.03
DavidsonA100.520.1087.5077.040.390.05
The CitadelSC0.000.1016.6730.49-0.00-0.04
LipscombASun0.000.1025.0042.50-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.350.1066.6759.320.120.02
HowardMEAC0.000.1030.0044.01-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.100.0023.23-0.00-0.05
IowaB100.000.1072.7362.590.000.02
OhioMAC0.000.0950.0037.520.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0928.5736.94-0.00-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0962.5065.190.000.03
Northern IowaMVC1.010.0990.0078.120.810.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0930.0039.75-0.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.350.0941.6744.37-0.06-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0755.5665.660.000.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.07100.0077.970.000.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0733.3345.26-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0790.9167.700.000.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0711.1143.93-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0733.3338.24-0.00-0.02
UCLAP120.000.0772.7357.410.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0760.0065.060.000.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0770.0066.610.000.02
MercerSC0.000.0737.5041.84-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0718.1846.19-0.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0777.7864.890.000.02
Old DominionCUSA0.520.0788.8981.120.410.04
PurdueB100.350.0772.7363.690.160.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.450.0711.1129.64-0.35-0.03
ColgatePat0.000.0720.0042.80-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0736.3633.75-0.00-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0725.0033.13-0.00-0.02
SienaMAAC0.000.0737.5051.47-0.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.070.0024.33-0.00-0.03
StetsonASun0.000.0711.1128.93-0.00-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.350.0750.0049.770.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0725.0028.71-0.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.0760.0064.580.000.02
Appalachian St.SB0.740.0642.8632.44-0.11-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.350.0620.0034.02-0.21-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0012.28-0.00-0.05
NorthwesternB100.660.0660.0040.460.13-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0640.0033.85-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6766.690.000.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0685.7172.940.000.03
PennIvy0.000.0637.5032.89-0.00-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.0610.0021.05-0.00-0.04
YaleIvy0.000.0670.0064.820.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0645.4544.47-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.520.06100.0085.210.520.04
ArmyPat0.790.0677.7868.810.440.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0645.4552.00-0.000.00
AkronMAC0.000.0660.0056.780.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0675.0067.080.000.02
BryantNEC0.000.0628.5747.24-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0675.0069.340.000.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0622.2231.12-0.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0014.70-0.00-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.310.0640.0050.16-0.060.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0671.4361.390.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0625.0040.49-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0637.5038.03-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0650.0033.280.00-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0650.0062.870.000.02
WagnerNEC0.000.0614.2933.80-0.00-0.02
Penn St.B100.660.0690.9154.060.540.00
Miami FLACC0.000.0690.0075.760.000.03
SyracuseACC0.000.0666.6757.600.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0085.770.000.04
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0080.830.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0320.0038.33-0.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0366.6754.090.000.00
LSUSEC0.000.0377.7862.380.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0388.8963.530.000.01
UC DavisBW0.390.0385.7161.530.280.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0366.6755.660.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0322.2230.96-0.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.450.0342.8638.02-0.06-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0390.0066.470.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0325.0025.95-0.00-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0375.0074.350.000.02
LafayettePat0.000.0375.0069.390.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0336.3647.27-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0354.5557.610.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.030.007.87-0.00-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0064.990.000.01
StanfordP120.450.0375.0058.750.220.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0337.5055.05-0.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.0360.0053.790.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0366.6772.280.000.01
VillanovaBE0.450.03100.0082.310.450.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0320.0028.69-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0385.7170.330.000.01
DaytonA100.310.0377.7869.890.170.01
EvansvilleMVC0.310.0375.0070.220.160.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0350.0052.290.000.00
HoustonAmer0.310.0371.4348.780.13-0.00
IPFWSum0.310.0357.1456.730.040.00
La SalleA100.350.0350.0049.770.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0322.2237.72-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0355.5647.640.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0344.4456.70-0.000.00
NJITind0.350.0336.3640.81-0.09-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0344.4470.22-0.000.01
RutgersB100.350.0360.0034.930.07-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0371.4357.420.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.310.0316.6727.11-0.21-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.350.030.0016.94-0.35-0.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0360.0059.520.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.310.0337.5046.91-0.08-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.0342.8643.73-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0322.2242.15-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0362.5055.120.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.350.030.0032.05-0.35-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0366.6741.940.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0377.7851.090.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0370.0071.470.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0390.9171.750.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6752.270.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0390.0066.760.000.01