Liberty

Conference:	BSth
Expected RPI:	288.0
Current RPI:	288
Expected SOS:	308
Current SOS:	308
Current Record:	12-20
Expected Record:	12-20
Current Conf Record:	10-10
Expected Conf Record:	10-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-13
Current OOC Record:	2-10
Expected OOC Record:	2-10
Expected OOC RPI:	310
Expected OOC SOS:	225

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-20	288.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Liberty.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Richmond (92.0)	A10	A	84-42	L	0%
11-12	William & Mary (271.0)	CAA	H	59-71	L	0%
11-14	Georgetown (11.0)	BE	A	68-59	L	0%
11-19	UC Irvine (125.0)	BW	N	64-46	L	0%
11-20	Sam Houston St. (224.0)	Slnd	A	64-50	L	0%
11-21	Southern Mississippi (31.0)	CUSA	N	56-74	L	0%
11-29	Morgan St. (236.0)	MEAC	H	62-67	L	0%
12-2	Georgia St. (209.0)	CAA	H	66-67	L	0%
12-15	Howard (334.0)	MEAC	A	60-53	L	0%
12-18	Iona (98.0)	MAAC	A	87-69	L	0%
12-31	Western Carolina (243.0)	SC	A	62-63	W	100%
1-5	NC Asheville (217.0)	BSth	H	69-83	L	0%
1-9	Virginia Military Inst (302.0)	BSth	A	82-69	L	0%
1-12	Coastal Carolina (259.0)	BSth	H	64-56	W	100%
1-16	High Point (249.0)	BSth	A	77-72	L	0%
1-19	Presbyterian (340.0)	BSth	A	68-60	L	0%
1-22	Longwood (332.0)	BSth	H	74-47	W	100%
1-26	Charleston Southern (189.0)	BSth	H	75-79	L	0%
1-29	Campbell (289.0)	BSth	H	89-72	W	100%
2-2	Winthrop (269.0)	BSth	A	66-56	L	0%
2-5	Radford (316.0)	BSth	H	75-70	W	100%
2-9	Gardner Webb (194.0)	BSth	A	71-68	L	0%
2-13	Campbell (289.0)	BSth	A	80-82	W	100%
2-16	High Point (249.0)	BSth	H	68-73	L	0%
2-19	Longwood (332.0)	BSth	A	102-101	L	0%
2-23	Austin Peay (319.0)	OVC	H	79-73	W	100%
2-26	Virginia Military Inst (302.0)	BSth	H	66-83	L	0%
3-2	Radford (316.0)	BSth	A	56-73	W	100%
3-5	Coastal Carolina (259.0)	BSth	A	61-78	W	100%
3-7	High Point (249.0)	BSth	N	60-61	W	100%
3-9	Gardner Webb (194.0)	BSth	N	62-65	W	100%
3-10	Charleston Southern (189.0)	BSth	N	76-87	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Liberty's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Liberty's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Liberty.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Liberty	BSth	26.40	26.40	38.67	38.67	-5.98	-5.98
High Point	BSth	5.44	5.44	52.00	52.00	0.22	0.22
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	3.99	3.99	34.62	34.62	-1.23	-1.23
Longwood	BSth	3.97	3.97	17.24	17.24	-2.60	-2.60
Campbell	BSth	3.94	3.94	39.29	39.29	-0.84	-0.84
Gardner Webb	BSth	3.92	3.92	60.71	60.71	0.84	0.84
Radford	BSth	3.91	3.91	37.04	37.04	-1.01	-1.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	3.89	3.89	57.69	57.69	0.60	0.60
Coastal Carolina	BSth	3.83	3.83	45.83	45.83	-0.32	-0.32
Winthrop	BSth	2.41	2.41	37.04	37.04	-0.63	-0.63
NC Asheville	BSth	2.38	2.38	42.86	42.86	-0.34	-0.34
Presbyterian	BSth	2.36	2.36	14.29	14.29	-1.68	-1.68
William & Mary	CAA	1.80	1.80	39.29	39.29	-0.39	-0.39
Morgan St.	MEAC	1.73	1.73	51.61	51.61	0.06	0.06
Western Carolina	SC	1.73	1.73	40.00	40.00	-0.35	-0.35
Austin Peay	OVC	1.72	1.72	21.43	21.43	-0.98	-0.98
Howard	MEAC	1.69	1.69	17.86	17.86	-1.09	-1.09
Georgia St.	CAA	1.64	1.64	44.83	44.83	-0.17	-0.17
Georgetown	BE	1.64	1.64	80.00	80.00	0.98	0.98
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	1.64	1.64	70.97	70.97	0.69	0.69
UC Irvine	BW	1.61	1.61	53.12	53.12	0.10	0.10
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	1.61	1.61	43.33	43.33	-0.21	-0.21
Richmond	A10	1.59	1.59	54.84	54.84	0.15	0.15
Iona	MAAC	1.56	1.56	59.38	59.38	0.29	0.29
The Citadel	SC	0.29	0.29	21.43	21.43	-0.17	-0.17
Hampton	MEAC	0.24	0.24	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.22	0.22	72.73	72.73	0.10	0.10
Appalachian St.	SC	0.21	0.21	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.21	0.21	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Old Dominion	CAA	0.21	0.21	16.67	16.67	-0.14	-0.14
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.21	0.21	31.03	31.03	-0.08	-0.08
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.19	0.19	70.97	70.97	0.08	0.08
Charlotte	A10	0.19	0.19	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
James Madison	CAA	0.19	0.19	58.82	58.82	0.03	0.03
Towson	CAA	0.19	0.19	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.18	0.18	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.18	0.18	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.17	0.17	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Boston University	AE	0.15	0.15	58.62	58.62	0.03	0.03
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.14	0.14	37.04	37.04	-0.04	-0.04
Indiana St.	MVC	0.14	0.14	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.13	0.13	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
NC Greensboro	SC	0.13	0.13	24.14	24.14	-0.07	-0.07
Northeastern	CAA	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Wichita St.	MVC	0.13	0.13	76.47	76.47	0.07	0.07
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Wofford	SC	0.13	0.13	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.13	0.13	20.69	20.69	-0.08	-0.08
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.13	0.13	70.37	70.37	0.05	0.05
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.13	0.13	76.47	76.47	0.07	0.07
Canisius	MAAC	0.12	0.12	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.11	0.11	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
West Virginia	B12	0.11	0.11	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Elon	SC	0.11	0.11	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.11	0.11	19.35	19.35	-0.06	-0.06
George Mason	CAA	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.10	0.10	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
DePaul	BE	0.10	0.10	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Rider	MAAC	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	22.58	22.58	-0.06	-0.06
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.10	0.10	7.14	7.14	-0.09	-0.09
Samford	SC	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Cincinnati	BE	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Siena	MAAC	0.10	0.10	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Rutgers	BE	0.10	0.10	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Memphis	CUSA	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Marshall	CUSA	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Akron	MAC	0.09	0.09	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Clemson	ACC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
George Washington	A10	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.08	0.08	67.86	67.86	0.03	0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
St. John's	BE	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.08	0.08	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.08	0.08	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.08	0.08	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	14.29	14.29	-0.05	-0.05
Arkansas	SEC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.08	0.08	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
Davidson	SC	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Fairfield	MAAC	0.07	0.07	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.07	0.07	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Pacific	BW	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Florida International	SB	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Army	Pat	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	10.00	10.00	-0.04	-0.04
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	28.00	28.00	-0.02	-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
American	Pat	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	93.75	93.75	0.05	0.05
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.05	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.05	85.19	85.19	0.04	0.04
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Denver	WAC	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.05	55.17	55.17	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.03	-0.03
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.03	0.03	35.71	35.71	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Monmouth	NEC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.02	0.02	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Butler	A10	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	-0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.02	0.02	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.02	0.02	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.02	0.02	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.02	0.02	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Temple	A10	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.02	0.02	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Fresno St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.02	0.02	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Southern California	P12	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	80.00	80.00	0.01	0.01