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Through games of Feb 13, 2016.


Liberty

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:251.2
Current RPI:249
Expected SOS:239
Current SOS:244
Current Record:9-15
Expected Record:11-17
Current Conf Record:9-5
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-7
Current OOC Record:0-10
Expected OOC Record:0-10
Expected OOC RPI:346
Expected OOC SOS:189



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-15214.01.98%
12-16232.620.01%
11-17249.543.47%
10-18264.129.25%
9-19277.45.28%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Liberty.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17William & Mary (60.6)CAAH59-70L0%0.0
11-26Appalachian St. (266.4)SBN62-73L0%0.0
11-27Western Michigan (204.1)MACN68-58L0%0.0
11-29Tulane (222.1)AmerN51-72L0%0.0
12-3Radford (168.7)BSthA56-52L0%0.0
12-5Charleston Southern (276.1)BSthH61-68L0%0.0
12-8Furman (147.6)SCA79-56L0%0.0
12-12Lamar (335.1)SlndH58-73L0%0.0
12-17Princeton (45.0)IvyA77-72L0%0.0
12-20St. Francis NY (283.8)NECA64-55L0%0.0
12-27VCU (45.5)A10A85-57L0%0.0
12-29Notre Dame (24.7)ACCA73-56L0%0.0
1-2UNC Asheville (150.8)BSthH69-76L0%0.0
1-6Coastal Carolina (162.2)BSthA61-62W100%0.0
1-9Campbell (312.3)BSthH55-52W100%0.0
1-14Charleston Southern (276.1)BSthA64-63L0%0.0
1-16Winthrop (148.5)BSthA74-58L0%0.0
1-19Longwood (324.8)BSthH55-53W100%0.0
1-23High Point (184.9)BSthH69-67W100%0.0
1-27Gardner Webb (223.9)BSthA55-69W100%0.0
1-30Presbyterian (339.9)BSthA61-65W100%0.0
2-2Winthrop (148.5)BSthH88-77W100%0.0
2-6High Point (184.9)BSthA76-80W100%0.0
2-13Longwood (324.8)BSthA68-69W100%0.0
2-18Radford (168.7)BSthH0-043%-1.8
2-20Presbyterian (339.9)BSthH0-077%7.8
2-25UNC Asheville (150.8)BSthA0-013%-12.2
2-27Gardner Webb (223.9)BSthH0-051%0.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Liberty's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Liberty's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Liberty.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LibertyBSth26.4526.4441.2340.29-4.64-5.13
High PointBSth4.944.5765.0065.771.481.44
UNC AshevilleBSth2.984.5460.8761.240.651.02
LongwoodBSth4.904.5422.7324.43-2.67-2.32
Gardner WebbBSth3.004.5443.4846.08-0.39-0.36
RadfordBSth2.954.5447.8349.72-0.13-0.03
PresbyterianBSth2.944.5423.8123.51-1.54-2.40
Charleston SouthernBSth4.994.5119.0520.91-3.09-2.62
WinthropBSth4.934.5070.0067.201.971.55
Coastal CarolinaBSth2.952.8561.9060.970.700.63
CampbellBSth2.942.8536.3636.30-0.80-0.78
FurmanSC2.262.0156.0054.640.270.19
William & MaryCAA2.181.8563.6463.110.590.49
VCUA102.131.8570.8370.530.890.76
Appalachian St.SB2.161.8520.8325.15-1.26-0.92
TulaneAmer2.121.8136.0035.23-0.60-0.54
LamarSlnd2.081.7926.3226.42-0.99-0.84
Notre DameACC2.081.7970.8369.150.870.68
PrincetonIvy2.081.7973.6876.400.990.94
St. Francis NYNEC2.081.7937.5041.57-0.52-0.30
Western MichiganMAC2.081.7931.8232.56-0.76-0.62
VMISC0.220.2319.0519.66-0.13-0.14
North Carolina St.ACC0.230.2052.0049.600.01-0.00
DrexelCAA0.180.2012.5015.98-0.14-0.14
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.180.2078.2675.550.100.10
East Tennessee St.SC0.170.1958.3358.870.030.03
Western CarolinaSC0.180.1934.7836.09-0.05-0.05
RichmondA100.180.1958.3356.260.030.02
WoffordSC0.130.1748.0048.31-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.170.1629.1729.25-0.07-0.07
HamptonMEAC0.230.1659.0961.340.040.04
James MadisonCAA0.130.1669.2369.940.050.06
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.180.1673.6876.550.080.08
MercerSC0.210.1564.0065.380.060.05
GeorgiaSEC0.190.1460.8757.660.040.02
USC UpstateASun0.140.1425.0024.15-0.07-0.07
College of CharlestonCAA0.180.1462.5060.760.050.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.170.1326.0928.44-0.08-0.06
ColumbiaIvy0.140.1365.2264.150.040.04
DartmouthIvy0.140.1333.3332.89-0.05-0.04
ElonCAA0.090.1348.0048.33-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.090.1348.0045.69-0.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.140.1352.0048.970.01-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.090.1353.8551.690.010.00
Florida St.ACC0.130.1366.6763.280.040.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.140.1340.9139.87-0.02-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.180.1362.5059.920.040.02
ChattanoogaSC0.120.1384.0085.050.080.09
George WashingtonA100.090.1272.0070.430.040.05
George MasonA100.130.1236.0035.97-0.04-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.130.1213.0418.03-0.09-0.08
Georgia TechACC0.120.1252.0050.510.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.140.1031.8236.20-0.05-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.140.1018.1825.29-0.09-0.05
RiderMAAC0.140.1038.4641.33-0.03-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.1018.1825.82-0.06-0.05
AkronMAC0.140.1079.1779.050.080.06
AlabamaSEC0.140.1062.5059.270.030.02
ClemsonACC0.090.1060.0059.840.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.140.1050.0049.050.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.090.1060.0060.860.020.02
HowardMEAC0.090.1034.7836.55-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.090.1079.1778.810.050.06
Wake ForestACC0.090.1040.0039.15-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.130.0968.0067.350.050.03
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0945.4545.84-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.130.0940.0043.15-0.03-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.0945.8343.81-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.090.0987.5083.680.060.06
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.140.0950.0050.880.000.00
Miami FLACC0.090.0982.6177.560.060.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0969.5769.090.030.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0944.4447.27-0.01-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.120.0929.1726.62-0.05-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0950.0050.520.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.120.0972.0070.630.050.04
North CarolinaACC0.120.0983.3378.350.080.05
Saint LouisA100.120.0933.3331.88-0.04-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.0735.0034.88-0.03-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.090.0748.0050.99-0.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0747.6248.51-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0755.5652.580.010.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0723.0823.73-0.05-0.04
MarquetteBE0.050.0761.5456.600.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0721.0529.38-0.00-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0747.6250.56-0.000.00
StanfordP120.090.0750.0046.650.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.090.0762.5058.360.020.01
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0770.8373.510.040.03
Wright St.Horz0.090.0756.0057.240.010.01
ArmyPat0.040.0756.0055.430.010.01
BrownIvy0.050.0728.5728.84-0.02-0.03
CornellIvy0.050.0738.1036.77-0.01-0.02
DelawareCAA0.090.0724.0024.18-0.05-0.03
HarvardIvy0.050.0736.3638.01-0.01-0.02
LSUSEC0.040.0764.0061.350.010.02
PennIvy0.050.0740.0039.62-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.090.0764.0060.170.030.01
YaleIvy0.050.0776.1976.290.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0772.7371.580.040.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0648.1547.52-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.090.0632.0031.16-0.03-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0648.0043.71-0.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.040.0648.0045.86-0.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.040.0666.6766.950.010.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0650.0051.120.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.040.0672.0072.950.020.03
UMBCAE0.090.0623.0825.88-0.05-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0626.3232.38-0.04-0.02
LafayettePat0.090.0620.0020.81-0.06-0.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.0643.4844.13-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.090.0682.6183.030.060.04
VirginiaACC0.090.0680.0077.220.050.03
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0656.0059.610.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0684.0081.460.060.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0647.8343.64-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0642.8643.95-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0662.5059.800.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0661.9060.140.010.01
SamfordSC0.080.0638.4640.25-0.02-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0662.5063.370.010.02
BuffaloMAC0.090.0654.1754.540.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0645.8346.51-0.01-0.00
BryantNEC0.040.0623.0823.72-0.02-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0612.0012.46-0.06-0.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.040.0650.0051.400.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.080.0676.0073.910.040.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.040.0629.6330.87-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0636.0037.33-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.080.0662.5063.810.020.02
DukeACC0.080.0676.0073.090.040.03
North FloridaASun0.080.0660.0061.790.020.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.040.0686.9686.020.030.04
Arkansas St.SB0.040.0639.1338.12-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0673.0871.580.040.02
DavidsonA100.040.0659.0955.710.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.040.0640.0039.42-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.040.0652.3851.410.000.00
HoustonAmer0.040.0672.0068.870.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0657.1460.240.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0647.8349.74-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.080.0656.0056.660.010.01
SMUAmer0.040.0687.5084.290.030.04
South AlabamaSB0.040.0639.1337.90-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.080.0620.0019.75-0.05-0.03
Texas St.SB0.080.0640.0038.79-0.02-0.01
TroySB0.040.0626.0926.58-0.02-0.03
TulsaAmer0.080.0664.0064.280.020.02
UCFAmer0.040.0647.8343.65-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0669.5771.830.030.03
AuburnSEC0.050.0437.5034.54-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0485.7183.660.030.02
NevadaMWC0.050.0459.0956.770.010.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0323.8129.48-0.03-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0313.0414.58-0.04-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0360.8760.120.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0350.0049.580.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0317.3920.09-0.03-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0322.2228.35-0.03-0.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0330.4332.18-0.02-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0340.9141.22-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0320.0022.33-0.03-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.050.0344.0039.90-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0313.6414.93-0.04-0.02
BucknellPat0.050.0350.0052.720.000.00
LipscombASun0.050.0330.7732.74-0.02-0.01
MarylandB100.050.0384.0080.600.040.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0345.8351.18-0.000.00
DePaulBE0.050.0333.3333.86-0.02-0.01
IPFWSum0.050.0372.0069.300.020.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0333.3331.74-0.02-0.01
NavyPat0.040.0365.3865.340.010.01
OhioMAC0.050.0365.2264.670.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0329.1727.08-0.02-0.01
AlbanyAE0.040.0373.0873.780.020.01
HartfordAE0.040.0324.0024.54-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.040.0344.0043.45-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.040.0380.0075.820.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.040.0347.8345.05-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.040.0358.3360.350.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.040.0380.7781.920.030.02
NJITASun0.040.0357.6957.310.010.00
PittsburghACC0.040.0372.7367.670.020.01
St. John'sBE0.040.0324.0023.69-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.040.0368.0064.130.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.040.0337.5037.69-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.040.0329.1730.14-0.02-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.040.0335.0039.98-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.040.0328.0030.05-0.02-0.01
DrakeMVC0.040.0320.0022.69-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.040.0360.8756.210.010.00
FordhamA100.040.0350.0050.420.000.00
La SalleA100.040.0318.1820.09-0.03-0.02
MassachusettsA100.040.0343.4842.31-0.01-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0341.6741.41-0.01-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0356.0055.660.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.040.0363.6465.350.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.040.0328.5730.34-0.02-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.040.0373.9172.090.020.01
TempleAmer0.000.0365.2262.390.000.01
TexasB120.040.0364.0061.080.010.01
WisconsinB100.040.0364.0060.000.010.01