live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


Liberty

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:311.7
Current RPI:321
Expected SOS:331
Current SOS:318
Current Record:1-2
Expected Record:9-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-9
Current OOC Record:1-2
Expected OOC Record:3-5
Expected OOC RPI:346
Expected OOC SOS:348



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-9167.00.07%
16-10181.90.20%
15-11205.60.55%
14-12228.11.67%
13-13249.33.98%
12-14271.27.66%
11-15289.912.28%
10-16306.916.69%
9-17320.518.72%
8-18331.116.49%
7-19338.811.70%
6-20344.16.55%
5-21347.62.61%
4-22348.90.64%
3-23350.30.15%
2-24350.30.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Liberty.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Delaware (278.2)CAAH61-55W100%0.0
11-19Virginia Tech (232.6)ACCA73-63L0%0.0
11-22Miami OH (237.8)MACA63-52L0%0.0
11-25North Florida (220.5)ASunN0-029%-6.6
12-1Furman (317.4)SCH0-071%6.5
12-6St. Francis NY (200.9)NECH0-036%-4.4
12-17UNC Wilmington (163.9)CAAA0-015%-12.3
12-22Princeton (253.8)IvyA0-022%-9.4
12-31Campbell (292.6)BSthA0-037%-4.0
1-3Presbyterian (312.5)BSthH0-069%6.0
1-8UNC Asheville (217.5)BSthA0-022%-9.1
1-10Coastal Carolina (149.0)BSthH0-027%-7.3
1-14Charleston Southern (168.3)BSthA0-016%-12.0
1-17Longwood (328.3)BSthA0-052%0.6
1-22Winthrop (166.8)BSthH0-033%-5.4
1-24Radford (217.3)BSthA0-021%-9.7
1-29High Point (153.5)BSthH0-036%-4.2
1-31Charleston Southern (168.3)BSthH0-035%-4.8
2-4Winthrop (166.8)BSthA0-015%-12.6
2-6Presbyterian (312.5)BSthA0-046%-1.2
2-10Campbell (292.6)BSthH0-061%3.2
2-14Coastal Carolina (149.0)BSthA0-011%-14.4
2-17Longwood (328.3)BSthH0-074%7.8
2-21Gardner Webb (88.9)BSthA0-08%-16.6
2-26Radford (217.3)BSthH0-042%-2.5
2-28UNC Asheville (217.5)BSthH0-044%-2.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Liberty's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Liberty's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Liberty.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LibertyBSth34.7226.5033.3334.19-11.57-8.38
LongwoodBSth0.004.9433.3321.69-0.00-2.80
PresbyterianBSth0.004.920.0023.36-0.00-2.62
CampbellBSth0.004.910.0028.57-0.00-2.10
RadfordBSth0.004.8933.3347.13-0.00-0.28
UNC AshevilleBSth0.004.8533.3343.85-0.00-0.60
Charleston SouthernBSth0.004.8550.0053.320.000.32
WinthropBSth0.004.8550.0059.030.000.88
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.004.850.0062.07-0.001.17
Gardner WebbBSth0.003.1166.6768.040.001.12
High PointBSth0.003.0975.0055.480.000.34
Virginia TechACC16.672.0750.0030.870.00-0.79
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.002.0666.6747.460.00-0.10
DelawareCAA16.671.990.0030.60-16.67-0.77
Miami OHMAC16.671.9950.0031.750.00-0.73
FurmanSC0.001.9633.3325.02-0.00-0.98
North FloridaASun0.001.920.0046.22-0.00-0.15
PrincetonIvy0.001.9225.0039.47-0.00-0.41
St. Francis NYNEC0.001.920.0055.95-0.000.23
James MadisonCAA0.000.3866.6746.540.00-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.280.0032.70-0.00-0.10
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.2825.0056.39-0.000.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.2250.0052.290.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.220.0049.23-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.000.2275.0075.140.000.11
SamfordSC0.000.2125.0031.88-0.00-0.08
ClemsonACC0.000.1850.0051.120.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.1733.3346.79-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.1766.6744.970.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.1733.3341.21-0.00-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.150.0032.69-0.00-0.05
AuburnSEC0.000.1566.6740.400.00-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.150.0019.92-0.00-0.09
MississippiSEC0.000.1566.6755.980.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.150.0031.61-0.00-0.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1550.0041.720.00-0.02
CornellIvy0.000.1440.0040.58-0.00-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.1450.0041.630.00-0.02
DukeACC0.000.14100.0086.130.000.10
VMISC0.000.1433.3339.27-0.00-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.000.140.0035.64-0.00-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1450.0033.700.00-0.04
Ohio St.B100.000.14100.0071.340.000.06
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1450.0038.370.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1333.3344.56-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.130.0032.23-0.00-0.05
HofstraCAA0.000.1366.6762.810.000.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.13100.0071.440.000.06
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1350.0037.890.00-0.03
TowsonCAA0.000.1375.0053.860.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.13100.0049.250.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.110.0025.03-0.00-0.05
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1150.0054.290.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.110.0033.55-0.00-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.000.1166.6758.650.000.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.11100.0072.860.000.05
LipscombASun0.000.110.0042.80-0.00-0.02
RichmondA100.000.1166.6767.450.000.04
TCUB120.000.11100.0054.550.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.11100.0059.190.000.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1050.0062.620.000.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.10100.0062.070.000.03
The CitadelSC0.000.100.0028.08-0.00-0.05
DavidsonA100.000.1050.0053.040.000.01
IowaB100.000.1050.0065.570.000.03
OhioMAC0.000.1050.0056.270.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.100.0036.36-0.00-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1025.0041.91-0.00-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0850.0062.580.000.02
UCLAP120.000.08100.0062.510.000.02
PurdueB100.000.07100.0060.550.000.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.07100.0070.030.000.03
Colorado St.MWC0.000.07100.0062.400.000.02
MarylandB100.000.07100.0064.500.000.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.070.0034.07-0.00-0.02
UABCUSA0.000.070.0043.18-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0750.0054.620.000.01
BrownIvy0.000.0725.0037.31-0.00-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.070.0046.61-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0750.0067.960.000.03
HowardMEAC0.000.070.0035.51-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0720.0026.89-0.00-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0775.0071.100.000.03
MercerSC0.000.0750.0052.260.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0725.0059.16-0.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.070.0024.17-0.00-0.04
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0733.3340.99-0.00-0.01
PennIvy0.000.070.0025.60-0.00-0.03
SienaMAAC0.000.0733.3359.64-0.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.070.0032.07-0.00-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0750.0037.760.00-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.07100.0051.050.000.00
YaleIvy0.000.0766.6762.540.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0766.6761.350.000.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.070.0031.63-0.00-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0733.3345.85-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.07100.0042.120.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.0733.3341.16-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.070.0033.98-0.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB2.780.0733.3321.74-0.93-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.000.07100.0072.420.000.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.07100.0078.630.000.04
AkronMAC0.000.0766.6763.730.000.02
ArmyPat0.000.07100.0066.100.000.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.07100.0061.500.000.02
BryantNEC0.000.0750.0054.900.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0766.6760.610.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.070.0035.36-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0766.6776.510.000.04
Kent St.MAC0.000.07100.0070.980.000.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.070.0043.84-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0733.3336.55-0.00-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.07100.0045.990.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0733.3343.68-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.070.0036.19-0.00-0.02
WagnerNEC0.000.070.0045.12-0.00-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0725.0035.61-0.00-0.02
Miami FLACC0.000.06100.0073.530.000.03
SyracuseACC0.000.0675.0068.160.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0075.720.000.03
ArizonaP120.000.04100.0069.320.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0475.0060.550.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.04100.0058.780.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0425.0033.97-0.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.040.0031.23-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.040.0037.13-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0475.0069.830.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.040.0018.27-0.00-0.02
George MasonA100.000.0425.0019.94-0.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0475.0054.790.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.04100.0052.260.000.00
LafayettePat0.000.0475.0064.270.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0466.6751.290.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.040.0028.32-0.00-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0433.3364.76-0.000.01
UC DavisBW0.000.04100.0042.650.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.04100.0069.180.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.03100.0080.090.000.02
Cal PolyBW4.170.0350.0037.760.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0046.020.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0366.6769.640.000.01
EvansvilleMVC2.780.03100.0063.552.780.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0034.98-0.00-0.01
IPFWSum0.000.0350.0063.720.000.01
La SalleA100.000.03100.0053.840.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0366.6758.230.000.01
NJITind0.000.0325.0025.21-0.00-0.02
RutgersB100.000.0350.0037.560.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky2.780.030.0019.17-2.78-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6752.550.000.00
StanfordP120.000.0375.0071.090.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0350.0053.100.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0333.3364.19-0.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0333.3355.40-0.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0065.270.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0054.710.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0041.59-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0041.480.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.03100.0053.080.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.780.0320.0027.80-1.67-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.030.0040.40-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0073.290.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0074.620.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0375.0047.170.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6750.790.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.03100.0067.570.000.01