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Through games of Feb 27, 2015.


Iowa

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:50.4
Current RPI:54
Expected SOS:37
Current SOS:30
Current Record:18-10
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:9-6
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Probability of Auto Bid:5.60%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:120
Expected OOC SOS:134



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1038.228.03%
20-1151.247.45%
19-1261.722.29%
18-1372.82.22%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Iowa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Hampton (289.8)MEACH90-56W100%0.0
11-17North Dakota St. (124.4)SumH87-56W100%0.0
11-20Texas (43.8)B12N57-71L0%0.0
11-21Syracuse (61.5)ACCN66-63L0%0.0
11-24Pepperdine (149.9)WCCH72-61W100%0.0
11-26Northern Illinois (214.7)MACH70-49W100%0.0
11-29Longwood (330.2)BSthH77-44W100%0.0
12-3North Carolina (16.7)ACCA55-60W100%0.0
12-6UMBC (341.7)AEH77-47W100%0.0
12-9Alcorn St. (347.8)SWACH67-44W100%0.0
12-12Iowa St. (15.6)B12H75-90L0%0.0
12-20Northern Iowa (13.8)MVCN44-56L0%0.0
12-22North Florida (168.9)ASunH80-70W100%0.0
12-30Ohio St. (35.3)B10A65-71W100%0.0
1-5Nebraska (126.4)B10H70-59W100%0.0
1-8Michigan St. (32.0)B10H61-75L0%0.0
1-13Minnesota (83.8)B10A75-77W100%0.0
1-17Ohio St. (35.3)B10H76-67W100%0.0
1-20Wisconsin (5.7)B10A82-50L0%0.0
1-24Purdue (59.8)B10A67-63L0%0.0
1-31Wisconsin (5.7)B10H63-74L0%0.0
2-5Michigan (87.2)B10A54-72W100%0.0
2-8Maryland (12.6)B10H71-55W100%0.0
2-12Minnesota (83.8)B10H59-64L0%0.0
2-15Northwestern (118.0)B10A66-61L0%0.0
2-19Rutgers (166.9)B10H81-47W100%0.0
2-22Nebraska (126.4)B10A46-74W100%0.0
2-25Illinois (64.6)B10H68-60W100%0.0
2-28Penn St. (124.1)B10A0-068%4.8
3-3Indiana (46.8)B10A0-047%-0.8
3-7Northwestern (118.0)B10H0-086%11.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Iowa's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Iowa's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Iowa.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IowaB1026.1626.1058.7360.364.575.41
NorthwesternB102.393.8348.1547.52-0.09-0.19
WisconsinB103.993.8388.4686.563.072.80
MinnesotaB104.113.8357.6957.210.630.55
NebraskaB104.113.8050.0048.270.00-0.13
Ohio St.B103.993.7876.9276.472.152.00
IllinoisB102.332.2762.9663.290.610.60
PurdueB102.332.2766.6763.540.780.62
Penn St.B100.612.2753.5751.260.040.06
MichiganB102.362.2752.0051.780.090.08
MarylandB102.262.2585.1984.201.591.54
Michigan St.B102.272.2266.6764.750.760.65
IndianaB100.642.2265.5264.920.200.66
RutgersB102.272.1935.7134.40-0.65-0.68
HamptonMEAC1.951.7544.0043.10-0.23-0.24
TexasB121.921.7359.2659.100.360.31
North FloridaASun1.881.7261.5462.820.430.44
Alcorn St.SWAC1.891.7016.6715.70-1.26-1.16
North Dakota St.Sum1.891.7069.2369.230.730.65
SyracuseACC1.891.6962.9658.810.490.30
UMBCAE1.881.6914.8115.46-1.32-1.17
Northern IowaMVC1.851.6992.8690.621.591.38
Iowa St.B121.881.6973.0872.130.870.75
North CarolinaACC1.881.6970.3769.860.770.67
LongwoodBSth1.821.6422.2223.27-1.01-0.88
Northern IllinoisMAC1.821.6441.6741.78-0.30-0.27
PepperdineWCC1.791.6157.6958.710.270.28
Northern KentuckyASun0.230.2238.4638.56-0.05-0.05
LouisvilleACC0.220.2178.5776.950.130.11
Kennesaw St.ASun0.230.2028.5728.28-0.10-0.09
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.170.1917.8620.58-0.11-0.11
Miami OHMAC0.200.1940.7440.55-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.160.1889.2988.120.130.14
OklahomaB120.160.1670.3769.820.070.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.170.1454.1753.530.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.130.1442.3143.33-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.160.1351.7250.700.010.00
CaliforniaP120.160.1357.1454.100.020.01
Notre DameACC0.160.1382.7681.310.110.08
BaylorB120.130.1374.0773.880.060.06
KansasB120.130.1378.5776.450.070.07
Kansas St.B120.100.1348.2846.44-0.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.160.1361.5461.360.040.03
Virginia TechACC0.130.1335.7134.80-0.04-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.100.1342.8642.05-0.01-0.02
MarquetteBE0.160.1340.7441.17-0.03-0.02
IUPUISum0.130.1134.4835.30-0.04-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.130.1134.6235.45-0.04-0.03
AkronMAC0.100.1160.7160.850.020.02
HowardMEAC0.100.1148.0048.61-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.130.1165.3865.140.040.03
OhioMAC0.140.1133.3332.58-0.05-0.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.1125.0024.65-0.05-0.06
North DakotaBSky0.130.1124.0026.17-0.07-0.05
Central MichiganMAC0.070.1178.2676.740.040.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.1155.5657.590.010.02
Western MichiganMAC0.070.1157.6956.860.010.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1125.0025.95-0.05-0.05
George WashingtonA100.090.1164.2963.500.030.03
UMass LowellAE0.130.1139.2939.29-0.03-0.02
TCUB120.100.1160.7157.540.020.02
Texas TechB120.130.1141.3839.54-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.130.1142.8641.83-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.130.1178.5775.030.070.05
ButlerBE0.060.1071.4370.890.030.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1060.7161.360.020.02
PittsburghACC0.100.1064.2962.960.030.03
VirginiaACC0.090.1096.3094.650.090.09
DenverSum0.100.0942.8642.65-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.0970.3770.390.040.04
IPFWSum0.100.0948.0049.57-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.070.0924.0025.19-0.04-0.04
LibertyBSth0.100.0815.3815.97-0.07-0.06
MaineAE0.100.0810.7110.50-0.08-0.07
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.0831.0334.48-0.04-0.03
BYUWCC0.100.0871.4369.460.040.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.080.001.32-0.10-0.08
LipscombASun0.100.0836.0037.68-0.03-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.0837.0436.49-0.03-0.02
NJITind0.100.0854.1754.130.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.070.0844.0044.61-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.0819.2320.46-0.06-0.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.0853.8553.120.010.01
New HampshireAE0.090.0857.6959.090.010.01
WinthropBSth0.100.0852.0053.550.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.0861.5460.520.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.100.0866.6767.410.030.03
ElonCAA0.060.0839.2939.48-0.01-0.02
DrakeMVC0.090.0828.5728.58-0.04-0.03
CampbellBSth0.060.0825.9326.73-0.03-0.04
High PointBSth0.100.0873.0872.070.040.04
James MadisonCAA0.100.0860.0059.190.020.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.0819.0521.40-0.06-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.0819.2322.27-0.06-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.0875.0077.310.050.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0825.9326.41-0.03-0.04
VillanovaBE0.100.0892.8691.370.080.07
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0846.4346.69-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.0855.5656.450.010.01
St. John'sBE0.100.0866.6763.990.030.02
OaklandHorz0.100.0850.0048.920.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.100.0833.3334.43-0.03-0.02
BrownIvy0.060.0842.3140.79-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.090.0855.5653.670.010.01
ColgatePat0.100.0844.8345.47-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.060.0869.2367.760.020.03
Miami FLACC0.060.0864.2963.100.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.090.0844.8345.59-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.100.0851.8553.170.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0651.8552.250.000.00
South DakotaSum0.070.0646.4345.83-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0625.0024.45-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.070.0666.6764.480.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0630.4332.31-0.03-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0666.6766.670.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0672.0070.100.030.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0669.2369.920.030.02
GonzagaWCC0.070.0696.5596.180.060.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0633.3337.78-0.02-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0622.2221.87-0.04-0.03
PacificWCC0.070.0634.6234.05-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.070.0651.8552.050.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.040.0638.4641.61-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0674.0774.230.030.03
San DiegoWCC0.070.0646.4346.30-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0639.2940.71-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0623.0822.37-0.02-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0637.0436.29-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.070.0664.2963.780.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0630.7731.61-0.03-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.063.705.03-0.06-0.05
AlabamaSEC0.070.0659.2657.470.010.01
RichmondA100.060.0657.1458.580.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0646.1547.78-0.01-0.00
AlbanyAE0.060.0671.4370.870.030.02
BinghamtonAE0.030.0614.2916.11-0.02-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0660.0059.770.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0665.3865.380.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0642.3143.94-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.060.0648.1547.54-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0655.1756.100.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0659.2659.110.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0623.0822.51-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.060.0662.9663.070.020.01
Stony BrookAE0.060.0664.2964.450.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0610.7110.56-0.05-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0640.0041.11-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.060.0659.2658.740.010.01
Arizona St.P120.060.0553.5754.190.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0522.2222.17-0.04-0.03
AmericanPat0.070.0551.7252.130.000.00
BucknellPat0.030.0555.1754.540.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0516.6716.92-0.04-0.04
Loyola MDPat0.060.0539.2939.90-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.070.0571.4369.280.030.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0524.0025.09-0.02-0.03
SMUAmer0.030.0581.4880.510.020.03
BradleyMVC0.060.0524.1424.87-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.054.004.82-0.06-0.05
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0567.8667.390.020.02
CreightonBE0.060.0546.4344.29-0.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0564.2963.560.020.01
FurmanSC0.060.0523.0822.71-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0566.6765.760.020.02
HawaiiBW0.060.0560.7160.790.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0560.7160.580.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0565.0063.560.020.01
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0533.3332.83-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.060.0572.0070.730.030.02
SeattleWAC0.060.0545.8346.11-0.01-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0531.0332.37-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0559.2659.110.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0540.7441.43-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0560.0058.420.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0589.2988.690.020.04
LamarSlnd0.030.0543.4842.11-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.060.0573.0873.180.030.02
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0567.8667.600.020.02
CornellIvy0.030.0546.1546.98-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.030.0532.0032.35-0.01-0.02
Green BayHorz0.060.0574.0774.330.030.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0535.0034.28-0.01-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0517.8618.91-0.02-0.03
KentuckySEC0.060.05100.0099.450.060.05
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0540.7444.50-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0540.7440.86-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.060.0525.9326.67-0.03-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0553.3354.170.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0542.8644.45-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0551.8551.130.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0555.5656.260.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.0533.3333.99-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.030.0356.0055.800.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0322.2221.97-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0324.0022.68-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0326.9225.82-0.02-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0321.4322.23-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.040.0341.3840.25-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.040.0351.8551.850.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0342.3141.78-0.01-0.00
IdahoBSky0.040.0341.6744.39-0.01-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.040.0385.1984.500.030.02
San Jose St.MWC0.030.030.000.45-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.030.0325.9327.35-0.02-0.01
TroySB0.040.0332.0031.79-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.040.0348.0046.53-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.040.0370.3772.260.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0334.6234.47-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0389.2987.910.030.02
DetroitHorz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.00
LehighPat0.030.0355.5654.850.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0355.5656.230.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0329.6331.09-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0337.9338.96-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0329.6330.57-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0382.1478.230.020.02
George MasonA100.030.0326.9226.87-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0366.6767.490.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0383.3383.780.020.02
UMKCWAC0.030.0337.0438.77-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.030.0375.0074.480.020.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0340.0040.10-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0342.8645.65-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0359.2658.310.010.00
DavidsonA100.030.0376.0075.770.020.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0337.0436.03-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.0336.0034.75-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0338.4638.59-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0372.0072.050.000.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0322.2224.13-0.02-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0346.4346.89-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0373.9170.390.020.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0351.8551.670.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0342.3141.81-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0375.0076.180.020.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0353.5753.780.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0330.7730.30-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.030.0335.7135.96-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0325.0030.34-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0333.3332.59-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0366.6767.380.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0351.7252.280.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0343.3343.00-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.030.0337.9337.78-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0355.5654.640.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0368.9768.490.010.01
StanfordP120.030.0366.6764.450.010.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0339.1340.63-0.01-0.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0332.0032.30-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.030.0358.6260.540.010.01
USCP120.000.0335.7135.30-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0353.8554.220.000.00
VMISC0.030.0334.6235.81-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0333.3332.94-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0361.5462.630.010.01