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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Iowa

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:81.0
Current RPI:81
Expected SOS:54
Current SOS:54
Current Record:18-14
Expected Record:18-14
Current Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:160
Expected OOC SOS:135



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1481.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Iowa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Kennesaw St. (259.0)ASunH91-74W100%0.0
11-13Savannah St. (279.0)MEACH116-84W100%0.0
11-17Seton Hall (43.0)BEH83-91L0%0.0
11-20UT Rio Grande Valley (319.0)WACH95-67W100%0.0
11-25Virginia (18.0)ACCN41-74L0%0.0
11-26Memphis (120.0)AmerN100-92L0%0.0
11-29Notre Dame (23.0)ACCA92-78L0%0.0
12-3Nebraska Omaha (132.0)SumH89-98L0%0.0
12-5Stetson (328.0)ASunH95-68W100%0.0
12-8Iowa St. (21.0)B12H78-64W100%0.0
12-17Northern Iowa (163.0)MVCN69-46W100%0.0
12-20North Dakota (144.0)BSkyH84-73W100%0.0
12-22Delaware St. (332.0)MEACH89-57W100%0.0
12-28Purdue (19.0)B10A89-67L0%0.0
1-1Michigan (25.0)B10H86-83W100%0.0
1-5Nebraska (107.0)B10A93-90L0%0.0
1-8Rutgers (177.0)B10H68-62W100%0.0
1-12Purdue (19.0)B10H83-78W100%0.0
1-15Northwestern (50.0)B10A89-54L0%0.0
1-19Maryland (36.0)B10H76-84L0%0.0
1-25Illinois (62.0)B10A76-64L0%0.0
1-28Ohio St. (90.0)B10H85-72W100%0.0
1-31Rutgers (177.0)B10A63-83W100%0.0
2-5Nebraska (107.0)B10H81-70W100%0.0
2-8Minnesota (20.0)B10A101-89L0%0.0
2-11Michigan St. (51.0)B10A77-66L0%0.0
2-18Illinois (62.0)B10H66-70L0%0.0
2-21Indiana (79.0)B10H96-90W100%0.0
2-25Maryland (36.0)B10A69-83W100%0.0
3-2Wisconsin (35.0)B10A57-59W100%0.0
3-5Penn St. (101.0)B10H90-79W100%0.0
3-9Indiana (79.0)B10N73-95L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Iowa's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Iowa's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Iowa.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IowaB1026.0926.0951.5251.520.790.79
RutgersB103.733.7346.6746.67-0.25-0.25
IndianaB103.733.7354.8454.840.360.36
MarylandB103.713.7175.8675.861.921.92
PurdueB103.703.7080.0080.002.222.22
IllinoisB103.683.6851.7251.720.130.13
NebraskaB103.653.6535.7135.71-1.04-1.04
NorthwesternB102.392.3966.6766.670.800.80
MichiganB102.372.3770.5970.590.980.98
Penn St.B102.302.3046.8846.88-0.14-0.14
WisconsinB102.262.2675.7675.761.161.16
Ohio St.B102.252.2554.8454.840.220.22
Michigan St.B102.222.2256.2556.250.280.28
MinnesotaB102.192.1971.8871.880.960.96
Notre DameACC1.681.6872.7372.730.770.77
Delaware St.MEAC1.641.6427.5927.59-0.73-0.73
Kennesaw St.ASun1.641.6441.3841.38-0.28-0.28
Savannah St.MEAC1.641.6442.3142.31-0.25-0.25
VirginiaACC1.631.6367.7467.740.580.58
MemphisAmer1.621.6258.0658.060.260.26
Iowa St.B121.621.6271.8871.880.710.71
StetsonASun1.611.6128.5728.57-0.69-0.69
Seton HallBE1.611.6164.5264.520.470.47
Northern IowaMVC1.591.5946.4346.43-0.11-0.11
North DakotaBSky1.591.5970.3770.370.650.65
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC1.591.5925.0025.00-0.79-0.79
Nebraska OmahaSum1.591.5953.3353.330.110.11
PittsburghACC0.200.2048.4848.48-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.190.1975.0075.000.100.10
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.180.1876.6776.670.100.10
Morgan St.MEAC0.180.1844.8344.83-0.02-0.02
NJITASun0.180.1831.0331.03-0.07-0.07
Fort WayneSum0.170.1757.1457.140.020.02
IUPUISum0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.170.1791.1891.180.140.14
North CarolinaACC0.170.1778.7978.790.100.10
Florida St.ACC0.170.1775.7675.760.090.09
North FloridaASun0.160.1636.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.160.1617.8617.86-0.10-0.10
KansasB120.150.1587.5087.500.110.11
Virginia TechACC0.150.1568.7568.750.050.05
St. John'sBE0.150.1542.4242.42-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.130.1346.4346.43-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.130.133.333.33-0.12-0.12
HowardMEAC0.130.1325.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.120.1272.7372.730.060.06
Kansas St.B120.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.120.1210.3410.34-0.10-0.10
GeorgetownBE0.120.1243.7543.75-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
OklahomaB120.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
DePaulBE0.120.1228.1228.12-0.05-0.05
Miami FLACC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
ButlerBE0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
MarquetteBE0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
DukeACC0.120.1277.1477.140.060.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.120.1221.8821.88-0.07-0.07
Portland St.BSky0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.110.1160.7160.710.020.02
UMKCWAC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.1173.3373.330.050.05
XavierBE0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
South DakotaSum0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
UCFAmer0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
ClemsonACC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.100.1023.0823.08-0.05-0.05
UCLAP120.100.1087.8887.880.070.07
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.100.1088.2488.240.070.07
Georgia TechACC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
TexasB120.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0810.0010.00-0.06-0.06
Montana St.BSky0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
DrakeMVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.080.0837.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
DaytonA100.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
North TexasCUSA0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0719.2319.23-0.05-0.05
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
BaylorB120.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
TCUB120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
SyracuseACC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
IdahoBSky0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0612.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.040.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
RichmondA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
WinthropBSth0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
HartfordAE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
Texas TechB120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
ColgatePat0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
OregonP120.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Oregon St.P120.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
CampbellBSth0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0318.5218.52-0.02-0.02
USCP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0232.0032.00-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0229.4129.41-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
NavyPat0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
ArizonaP120.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
DuquesneA100.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0296.9796.970.020.02
KentuckySEC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
ColoradoP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Green BayHorz0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0260.7160.710.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01