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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Iowa

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:43.0
Current RPI:43
Expected SOS:34
Current SOS:34
Current Record:21-11
Expected Record:21-11
Current Conf Record:12-7
Expected Conf Record:12-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:94
Expected OOC SOS:83



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1143.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Iowa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Hampton (251.0)MEACH90-56W100%0.0
11-17North Dakota St. (92.0)SumH87-56W100%0.0
11-20Texas (42.0)B12N57-71L0%0.0
11-21Syracuse (69.0)ACCN66-63L0%0.0
11-24Pepperdine (134.0)WCCH72-61W100%0.0
11-26Northern Illinois (185.0)MACH70-49W100%0.0
11-29Longwood (316.0)BSthH77-44W100%0.0
12-3North Carolina (11.0)ACCA55-60W100%0.0
12-6UMBC (346.0)AEH77-47W100%0.0
12-9Alcorn St. (348.0)SWACH67-44W100%0.0
12-12Iowa St. (9.0)B12H75-90L0%0.0
12-20Northern Iowa (14.0)MVCN44-56L0%0.0
12-22North Florida (162.0)ASunH80-70W100%0.0
12-30Ohio St. (41.0)B10A65-71W100%0.0
1-5Nebraska (158.0)B10H70-59W100%0.0
1-8Michigan St. (23.0)B10H61-75L0%0.0
1-13Minnesota (98.0)B10A75-77W100%0.0
1-17Ohio St. (41.0)B10H76-67W100%0.0
1-20Wisconsin (4.0)B10A82-50L0%0.0
1-24Purdue (55.0)B10A67-63L0%0.0
1-31Wisconsin (4.0)B10H63-74L0%0.0
2-5Michigan (81.0)B10A54-72W100%0.0
2-8Maryland (13.0)B10H71-55W100%0.0
2-12Minnesota (98.0)B10H59-64L0%0.0
2-15Northwestern (125.0)B10A66-61L0%0.0
2-19Rutgers (178.0)B10H81-47W100%0.0
2-22Nebraska (158.0)B10A46-74W100%0.0
2-25Illinois (73.0)B10H68-60W100%0.0
2-28Penn St. (108.0)B10A77-81W100%0.0
3-3Indiana (61.0)B10A63-77W100%0.0
3-7Northwestern (125.0)B10H69-52W100%0.0
3-12Penn St. (108.0)B10N58-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Iowa's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Iowa's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Iowa.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IowaB1026.0726.0761.4961.495.995.99
WisconsinB103.803.8090.6290.623.093.09
Penn St.B103.803.8053.1253.120.240.24
MinnesotaB103.803.8053.3353.330.250.25
Ohio St.B103.753.7574.1974.191.811.81
NorthwesternB103.723.7246.6746.67-0.25-0.25
NebraskaB103.723.7244.8344.83-0.38-0.38
PurdueB102.282.2862.5062.500.570.57
Michigan St.B102.262.2666.6766.670.750.75
MichiganB102.262.2650.0050.000.000.00
MarylandB102.232.2384.3884.381.531.53
IllinoisB102.212.2161.2961.290.500.50
IndianaB102.212.2162.5062.500.550.55
RutgersB102.182.1832.2632.26-0.78-0.78
HamptonMEAC1.691.6950.0050.000.000.00
TexasB121.691.6959.3859.380.320.32
North FloridaASun1.661.6666.6766.670.550.55
Iowa St.B121.661.6675.0075.000.830.83
Northern IowaMVC1.641.6490.6290.621.331.33
Alcorn St.SWAC1.641.6417.2417.24-1.07-1.07
North Dakota St.Sum1.641.6472.4172.410.730.73
UMBCAE1.641.6413.7913.79-1.18-1.18
North CarolinaACC1.641.6470.5970.590.670.67
SyracuseACC1.631.6356.6756.670.220.22
LongwoodBSth1.591.5929.0329.03-0.67-0.67
Northern IllinoisMAC1.591.5946.4346.43-0.11-0.11
PepperdineWCC1.561.5658.6258.620.270.27
LouisvilleACC0.210.2175.0075.000.110.11
Northern KentuckyASun0.200.2039.2939.29-0.04-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.180.1826.6726.67-0.08-0.08
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.180.1818.7518.75-0.11-0.11
Miami OHMAC0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
OklahomaB120.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
DukeACC0.160.1687.8887.880.120.12
AkronMAC0.150.1558.8258.820.030.03
Notre DameACC0.140.1485.2985.290.100.10
Virginia TechACC0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
KansasB120.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
Morgan St.MEAC0.140.1422.5822.58-0.08-0.08
Eastern MichiganMAC0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.120.1264.7164.710.040.04
SouthernSWAC0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.120.1263.3363.330.030.03
CaliforniaP120.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
George WashingtonA100.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
BaylorB120.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
Georgia TechACC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
Texas TechB120.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.120.1290.6290.620.100.10
MarquetteBE0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.100.1071.4371.430.040.04
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.100.000.00-0.10-0.10
IUPUISum0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
HowardMEAC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
DartmouthIvy0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
WinthropBSth0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
PittsburghACC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.090.0968.7568.750.040.04
TCUB120.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
West VirginiaB120.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
MaineAE0.080.0810.0010.00-0.06-0.06
Ball St.MAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
GonzagaWCC0.080.0893.9493.940.070.07
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
New HampshireAE0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
BYUWCC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
IPFWSum0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.080.0821.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
NJITind0.070.0756.0056.000.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
VillanovaBE0.070.0794.1294.120.070.07
ElonCAA0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
St. John'sBE0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
BrownIvy0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0759.2659.260.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
ColgatePat0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
ClemsonACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Miami FLACC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
CampbellBSth0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
High PointBSth0.070.0767.8667.860.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
CornellIvy0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0726.9226.92-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0775.8675.860.040.04
FordhamA100.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
UABCUSA0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0562.9662.960.010.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
BinghamtonAE0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
HawaiiBW0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0558.3358.330.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
RichmondA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
FurmanSC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
AmericanPat0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0542.3142.31-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
Boise St.MWC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
USCP120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
IdahoBSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
DetroitHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.020.0247.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
George MasonA100.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0230.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
RiceCUSA0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0286.6786.670.020.02
Texas St.SB0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
VCUA100.020.0274.2974.290.010.01
VMISC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
The CitadelSC0.020.0229.6329.63-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
UCLAP120.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00