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Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


Iowa

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:156.4
Current RPI:150
Expected SOS:77
Current SOS:90
Current Record:10-11
Expected Record:14-17
Current Conf Record:1-7
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:130
Expected OOC SOS:237



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1272.60.07%
18-1384.00.30%
17-1498.11.84%
16-15114.37.59%
15-16132.817.13%
14-17151.225.84%
13-18168.225.94%
12-19184.015.18%
11-20198.75.34%
10-21212.50.76%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Iowa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Chicago St. (336.6)WACH95-62W100%0.0
11-12Alabama St. (343.4)SWACH92-58W100%0.0
11-16Grambling St. (287.3)SWACH85-74W100%0.0
11-20Louisiana Lafayette (61.4)SBN71-80L0%0.0
11-21South Dakota St. (65.8)SumN80-72L0%0.0
11-22UAB (126.7)CUSAN85-95W100%0.0
11-28Virginia Tech (71.4)ACCA79-55L0%0.0
12-2Penn St. (115.5)B10H73-77L0%0.0
12-4Indiana (105.2)B10A77-64L0%0.0
12-7Iowa St. (112.4)B12A84-78L0%0.0
12-10Southern (304.4)SWACH91-60W100%0.0
12-16Drake (161.0)MVCN90-64W100%0.0
12-19Southern Utah (264.7)BSkyH92-64W100%0.0
12-22Colorado (84.5)P12N80-73W100%0.0
12-29Northern Illinois (225.4)MACH98-75W100%0.0
1-2Michigan (37.9)B10H68-75L0%0.0
1-4Ohio St. (20.7)B10H81-92L0%0.0
1-7Maryland (50.9)B10A91-73L0%0.0
1-11Illinois (163.9)B10A97-104W100%0.0
1-17Rutgers (188.3)B10A80-64L0%0.0
1-20Purdue (6.4)B10H64-87L0%0.0
1-23Wisconsin (130.4)B10H0-054%1.0
1-27Nebraska (102.7)B10A0-037%-3.6
1-30Minnesota (98.1)B10H0-052%0.6
2-3Penn St. (115.5)B10A0-029%-6.2
2-6Michigan St. (20.7)B10H0-016%-10.9
2-10Ohio St. (20.7)B10A0-017%-10.7
2-14Michigan (37.9)B10A0-017%-10.7
2-17Indiana (105.2)B10H0-058%2.3
2-21Minnesota (98.1)B10A0-030%-5.8
2-25Northwestern (129.0)B10H0-052%0.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Iowa's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Iowa's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Iowa.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IowaB1026.2926.1043.0140.36-3.68-5.03
Ohio St.B102.553.8480.9575.851.581.98
MinnesotaB100.463.8163.6457.520.130.57
IndianaB102.553.8057.8951.590.400.12
Penn St.B102.503.7860.0053.760.500.28
MichiganB102.733.7875.0069.321.361.46
NorthwesternB100.402.3055.0050.470.040.02
PurdueB102.612.2890.0088.002.091.73
Michigan St.B100.482.2585.7183.760.341.52
IllinoisB102.562.2547.3745.12-0.13-0.22
MarylandB102.722.2565.0061.860.820.53
NebraskaB100.282.2563.6459.370.080.42
WisconsinB100.412.2250.0046.270.00-0.17
RutgersB102.552.2252.6344.810.13-0.23
Alabama St.SWAC2.571.7516.6723.42-1.71-0.93
DrakeMVC2.571.7557.8950.670.410.02
SouthernSWAC2.571.7533.3342.28-0.86-0.27
Chicago St.WAC2.571.750.003.17-2.57-1.64
Grambling St.SWAC2.511.7238.8945.55-0.56-0.15
South Dakota St.Sum2.561.6970.5971.931.060.74
ColoradoP122.511.6763.1655.570.660.19
Northern IllinoisMAC2.501.6743.7540.54-0.31-0.32
Iowa St.B122.451.6455.5644.370.27-0.18
Southern UtahBSky2.381.6440.0035.06-0.48-0.49
Louisiana LafayetteSB2.381.6182.3580.761.540.99
UABCUSA2.381.6164.7166.440.700.53
Virginia TechACC2.381.6168.4259.080.880.29
Alabama A&MSWAC0.310.3010.0016.77-0.25-0.20
Texas SouthernSWAC0.180.2220.0040.93-0.11-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.190.190.0010.26-0.19-0.15
Alcorn St.SWAC0.190.1917.6527.34-0.12-0.09
Jackson St.SWAC0.240.1938.8943.36-0.05-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.120.1630.0032.54-0.05-0.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.1633.3339.89-0.04-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.130.1625.0039.91-0.06-0.03
DukeACC0.120.1689.4785.240.100.11
North CarolinaACC0.170.1676.1972.570.090.07
Central MichiganMAC0.130.1462.5058.710.030.02
Notre DameACC0.120.1363.1661.000.030.03
UCLAP120.120.1365.0062.050.030.03
LouisvilleACC0.180.1378.9569.820.100.05
Fort WayneSum0.060.1152.6351.680.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.190.1125.0028.02-0.09-0.05
South DakotaSum0.120.1173.6872.400.060.05
BuffaloMAC0.200.1172.2274.940.090.06
MontanaBSky0.130.1170.5973.150.050.05
Missouri St.MVC0.190.1170.0068.290.080.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.190.1152.6355.280.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.190.1168.4263.610.070.03
KansasB120.130.1184.2179.760.090.07
Arkansas St.SB0.130.1127.7831.08-0.06-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.130.1146.6747.00-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.180.1170.0071.220.070.05
Southern MissCUSA0.120.1141.1838.47-0.02-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.180.1144.4450.08-0.020.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.140.1137.5037.67-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.190.1168.4260.530.070.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.120.1168.4270.820.050.04
BaylorB120.130.1157.8953.280.020.01
Indiana St.MVC0.120.1144.4446.03-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.180.1165.0058.600.050.02
Appalachian St.SB0.180.1131.5836.23-0.07-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.240.1115.0020.28-0.17-0.06
ValparaisoMVC0.120.1147.3748.77-0.01-0.00
ClemsonACC0.120.1184.2173.180.080.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.170.1123.5332.57-0.09-0.04
ButlerBE0.170.1066.6763.070.060.03
Miami FLACC0.000.1077.7870.410.000.04
DenverSum0.130.0933.3336.47-0.04-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.130.0942.8635.22-0.02-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.070.0929.4134.78-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.070.0921.0524.76-0.04-0.04
WyomingMWC0.190.0861.1156.790.040.01
MississippiSEC0.190.0852.6345.860.01-0.01
TroySB0.070.0838.8944.43-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0852.9452.250.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.130.0826.6729.12-0.06-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.120.0883.3384.250.080.06
SeattleWAC0.120.0857.8954.500.020.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0845.0045.03-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0840.0043.34-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.120.0865.0057.890.040.01
JacksonvilleASun0.120.0833.3333.76-0.04-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.130.0845.0047.06-0.01-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.060.0844.4446.66-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.130.0831.5836.43-0.05-0.02
OklahomaB120.000.0877.7868.030.000.03
Seton HallBE0.120.0875.0067.910.060.03
Texas TechB120.060.0878.9571.750.040.04
VCUA100.120.0860.0059.710.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0847.0641.38-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.120.0880.0078.940.070.05
DePaulBE0.060.0842.1134.30-0.01-0.03
DetroitHorz0.120.0821.0525.99-0.07-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.060.0852.6343.040.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.060.0831.5835.15-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.120.0836.8445.19-0.03-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.180.0842.1140.46-0.03-0.02
WashingtonP120.120.0870.0061.460.050.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.120.089.5217.86-0.09-0.05
StanfordP120.050.0855.0050.330.010.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0865.0056.350.020.01
PittsburghACC0.120.0840.0030.88-0.02-0.03
RadfordBSth0.110.0857.8958.880.020.01
The CitadelSC0.110.0818.7518.37-0.07-0.05
VirginiaACC0.060.0894.7486.110.050.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0638.8946.05-0.02-0.00
IdahoBSky0.070.0664.7166.850.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0643.7540.91-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.070.0650.0047.650.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0644.4450.31-0.010.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0611.1115.30-0.06-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.070.0656.2557.430.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.140.0678.9576.980.080.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0658.8257.130.010.01
Oregon St.P120.130.0657.8950.860.020.00
UNLVMWC0.130.0673.6865.250.060.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0661.1158.710.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0658.8249.740.01-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0629.4133.20-0.02-0.02
Little RockSB0.070.0622.2225.19-0.04-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0672.2274.730.030.03
New OrleansSlnd0.130.0637.5045.24-0.03-0.01
RichmondA100.130.0631.5834.35-0.05-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.0650.0045.850.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.070.0657.8950.210.010.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0666.6767.670.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0660.0062.010.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0666.6766.030.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.130.0552.3848.530.01-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.130.0522.2228.57-0.07-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.120.0547.0654.68-0.010.01
OhioMAC0.130.0547.0648.43-0.01-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.130.0552.9455.030.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.120.0526.3231.48-0.06-0.02
UMBCAE0.120.0555.5655.550.010.01
Green BayHorz0.070.0525.0027.93-0.04-0.02
OaklandHorz0.060.0561.9065.150.010.02
PresbyterianBSth0.120.0527.7827.11-0.05-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.120.0536.8432.75-0.03-0.02
UCFAmer0.060.0568.4260.830.020.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0541.1839.660.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.060.0578.9576.160.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.120.0542.1132.46-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0552.6347.500.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.060.0510.5326.29-0.05-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0547.3746.09-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.060.0575.0065.320.030.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0578.9574.200.000.03
LSUSEC0.060.0561.1153.190.010.00
MissouriSEC0.120.0566.6763.150.040.01
New MexicoMWC0.120.0545.0048.57-0.01-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0568.4254.040.020.00
OregonP120.120.0565.0063.810.040.01
South FloridaAmer0.060.0535.0026.13-0.02-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0555.0052.480.010.00
TCUB120.060.0575.0067.830.030.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0557.8953.220.010.00
UC RiversideBW0.060.0517.6523.84-0.04-0.03
USCP120.060.0571.4368.300.030.02
UtahP120.000.0563.1659.720.000.01
Washington St.P120.060.0547.3741.43-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0580.0076.040.000.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0521.0523.52-0.03-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0520.0023.33-0.04-0.03
CreightonBE0.000.0575.0070.720.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.120.0573.6869.660.060.02
SyracuseACC0.120.0568.4261.280.040.01
TennesseeSEC0.060.0572.2268.930.030.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.120.0535.2940.46-0.04-0.01
XavierBE0.060.0585.7180.060.040.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.0568.4259.020.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0568.4264.160.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.060.0542.1139.93-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0565.0054.600.000.00
CampbellBSth0.060.0547.0647.41-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0520.0032.24-0.03-0.02
George MasonA100.060.0545.0041.29-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.060.0545.0043.49-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0580.9583.260.030.03
HarvardIvy0.000.0537.5046.700.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.055.8819.39-0.05-0.03
MassachusettsA100.000.0550.0046.810.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0557.1453.040.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0563.1663.210.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0570.0060.470.000.01
RiderMAAC0.060.0565.0065.330.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0557.1460.410.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0568.4263.970.020.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0511.1118.000.00-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0538.8935.380.00-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0564.7160.010.020.01
PepperdineWCC0.070.0310.5318.34-0.06-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.000.0358.8263.210.000.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0316.6724.440.00-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0311.7612.80-0.06-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.070.0330.0039.95-0.03-0.01
Wichita St.Amer0.070.0378.9577.380.040.02
AkronMAC0.070.0347.0644.92-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.070.0389.4776.990.050.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0323.5325.630.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.070.0327.7838.12-0.03-0.01
FIUCUSA0.070.0335.2935.54-0.02-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0310.0019.62-0.05-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0366.6765.390.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0366.6765.550.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0342.1145.98-0.01-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.070.0344.4444.91-0.01-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0350.0050.860.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0328.5731.24-0.03-0.01
MemphisAmer0.070.0365.0058.540.020.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0350.0051.390.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0378.9576.770.000.01
PennIvy0.070.0364.7162.690.020.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0311.1117.680.00-0.02
TulaneAmer0.060.0363.1657.870.020.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0333.3334.100.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.060.0337.5031.78-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0344.4446.01-0.01-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0350.0052.500.000.00
BrownIvy0.000.0350.0045.130.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.060.039.5217.12-0.05-0.02
BucknellPat0.060.0361.9068.000.010.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0336.8431.110.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0389.4785.550.050.02
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0345.0041.31-0.01-0.00
DrexelCAA0.060.0330.0030.97-0.02-0.01
FordhamA100.060.0331.5829.03-0.02-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0338.8940.78-0.01-0.00
HartfordAE0.060.0350.0045.930.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0370.0068.210.030.01
La SalleA100.000.0340.0042.690.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.060.0350.0054.180.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.060.0316.6716.15-0.04-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0322.2228.660.00-0.01
MercerSC0.060.0344.4454.87-0.010.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0372.2258.880.030.00
NJITASun0.060.0338.8942.58-0.01-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0335.0031.82-0.02-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0330.0033.480.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0342.1146.090.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.060.0363.1657.530.020.00
St. BonaventureA100.060.0366.6768.750.020.01
TulsaAmer0.060.0355.0053.330.010.00
WinthropBSth0.060.0350.0059.430.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0352.6347.380.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.030.008.420.00-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0329.4133.930.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0338.8944.07-0.01-0.00
IUPUIHorz0.060.0327.7829.82-0.03-0.01
KentuckySEC0.060.0373.6868.040.030.01
LipscombASun0.060.0352.9459.380.000.00
MaristMAAC0.000.0321.0521.990.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0323.5328.71-0.03-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0355.5657.250.010.00
Saint LouisA100.060.0347.3746.93-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0326.3230.450.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0347.3742.160.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.000.0333.3336.930.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0352.6351.740.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0333.3333.870.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0341.1847.610.00-0.00