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Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


Iowa

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:38.6
Current RPI:120
Expected SOS:10
Current SOS:89
Current Record:2-2
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:2-2
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:67
Expected OOC SOS:87



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-32.50.02%
27-42.80.06%
26-55.40.37%
25-67.81.63%
24-711.54.24%
23-816.28.72%
22-921.614.25%
21-1029.117.84%
20-1138.118.39%
19-1249.015.65%
18-1361.89.78%
17-1474.75.69%
16-1591.42.32%
15-16107.20.78%
14-17121.70.17%
13-18144.80.05%
12-19161.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Iowa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Hampton (241.8)MEACH90-56W100%0.0
11-17North Dakota St. (210.6)SumH87-56W100%0.0
11-20Texas (6.6)B12N57-71L0%0.0
11-21Syracuse (34.2)ACCN66-63L0%0.0
11-24Pepperdine (152.9)WCCH0-090%15.2
11-26Northern Illinois (211.6)MACH0-096%20.4
11-29Longwood (328.3)BSthH0-0100%31.3
12-3North Carolina (11.8)ACCA0-028%-7.1
12-6UMBC (303.6)AEH0-099%26.6
12-9Alcorn St. (312.5)SWACH0-099%28.6
12-12Iowa St. (60.5)B12H0-072%7.0
12-20Northern Iowa (55.9)MVCN0-067%5.4
12-22North Florida (220.5)ASunH0-096%20.5
12-30Ohio St. (38.8)B10A0-039%-3.3
1-5Nebraska (84.0)B10H0-077%9.1
1-8Michigan St. (30.7)B10H0-059%2.7
1-13Minnesota (62.9)B10A0-049%-0.4
1-17Ohio St. (38.8)B10H0-063%3.9
1-20Wisconsin (6.2)B10A0-019%-10.5
1-24Purdue (64.5)B10A0-051%0.3
1-31Wisconsin (6.2)B10H0-039%-3.3
2-5Michigan (46.1)B10A0-044%-1.7
2-8Maryland (57.7)B10H0-072%6.9
2-12Minnesota (62.9)B10H0-071%6.8
2-15Northwestern (169.8)B10A0-079%9.6
2-19Rutgers (170.5)B10H0-091%15.8
2-22Nebraska (84.0)B10A0-056%1.9
2-25Illinois (42.0)B10H0-066%5.0
2-28Penn St. (122.0)B10A0-068%5.5
3-3Indiana (67.9)B10A0-052%0.7
3-7Northwestern (169.8)B10H0-092%16.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Iowa's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Iowa's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Iowa.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IowaB1031.2526.1337.5062.30-7.816.43
MinnesotaB100.003.8666.6762.930.001.00
WisconsinB100.003.86100.0085.930.002.77
NorthwesternB100.003.83100.0044.080.00-0.45
NebraskaB100.003.8366.6753.790.000.29
Ohio St.B100.003.80100.0072.880.001.74
IllinoisB100.002.30100.0068.250.000.84
Penn St.B100.002.3075.0047.690.00-0.11
PurdueB100.002.29100.0060.960.000.50
MichiganB100.002.29100.0064.690.000.67
MarylandB100.002.24100.0065.750.000.71
IndianaB100.002.24100.0062.510.000.56
Michigan St.B100.002.2466.6772.680.001.02
RutgersB100.002.2250.0038.530.00-0.51
HamptonMEAC15.621.7633.3353.40-5.210.12
TexasB1214.061.73100.0081.1414.061.08
North FloridaASun0.001.720.0048.78-0.00-0.04
SyracuseACC14.061.7066.6767.104.690.58
UMBCAE0.001.700.0037.43-0.00-0.43
North CarolinaACC0.001.69100.0073.330.000.79
Alcorn St.SWAC3.121.670.0033.12-3.12-0.56
North Dakota St.Sum15.621.6766.6746.615.21-0.11
Iowa St.B120.001.66100.0063.040.000.43
Northern IowaMVC0.001.64100.0073.840.000.78
LongwoodBSth0.001.6433.3323.54-0.00-0.87
Northern IllinoisMAC0.001.64100.0047.530.00-0.08
PepperdineWCC0.001.61100.0052.330.000.08
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.2333.3340.99-0.00-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.000.22100.0078.630.000.12
Kennesaw St.ASun3.120.2020.0026.89-1.88-0.09
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.200.0018.48-0.00-0.12
Miami OHMAC0.000.1966.6734.100.00-0.06
DukeACC0.000.19100.0086.130.000.14
SouthernSWAC0.000.140.0038.72-0.00-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.14100.0049.250.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.1433.3346.79-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.14100.0074.620.000.07
CaliforniaP123.120.1475.0069.831.560.05
Kansas St.B120.000.1466.6754.240.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.14100.0053.080.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.13100.0052.590.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.1366.6733.180.00-0.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1266.6746.620.00-0.01
IUPUISum0.000.1250.0031.810.00-0.04
AkronMAC0.000.1166.6763.730.000.03
North DakotaBSky0.000.110.0044.01-0.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.11100.0051.050.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.110.0037.22-0.00-0.03
HowardMEAC0.000.110.0035.51-0.00-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.000.11100.0046.020.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.11100.0054.710.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.110.0040.40-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.11100.0059.190.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.1150.0041.630.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.1166.6776.510.000.06
BaylorB120.000.11100.0069.300.000.04
KansasB120.000.1150.0061.790.000.03
MarquetteBE0.000.1133.3340.91-0.00-0.02
OklahomaB120.000.1150.0058.120.000.02
TCUB120.000.11100.0054.550.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.1166.6746.900.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.1150.0034.510.00-0.03
West VirginiaB120.000.11100.0067.570.000.04
ButlerBE0.000.11100.0061.850.000.03
PittsburghACC0.000.1166.6750.790.000.00
DenverSum0.000.0950.0061.440.000.02
IPFWSum0.000.0950.0063.720.000.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0933.3349.33-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0925.0033.97-0.00-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.090.0025.50-0.00-0.04
LipscombASun0.000.090.0042.80-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0933.3335.41-0.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.090.0036.36-0.00-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0950.0044.850.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0950.0033.700.00-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.0866.6760.610.000.02
MaineAE0.000.080.0018.23-0.00-0.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.080.0034.81-0.00-0.03
NJITind0.000.0825.0025.21-0.00-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.080.0033.68-0.00-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.000.080.0035.64-0.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.000.080.0025.08-0.00-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0866.6768.980.000.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.080.0038.59-0.00-0.02
UABCUSA0.000.080.0043.18-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0866.6752.030.000.00
New HampshireAE0.000.080.0041.97-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.080.0072.02-0.000.04
OaklandHorz0.000.080.0032.48-0.00-0.03
WinthropBSth0.000.0850.0060.360.000.02
St. John'sBE0.000.08100.0052.540.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.080.0032.70-0.00-0.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0850.0051.120.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.08100.0073.530.000.04
VirginiaACC0.000.08100.0075.720.000.04
BrownIvy0.000.0825.0037.31-0.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0850.0041.480.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.080.0030.19-0.00-0.03
High PointBSth0.000.0875.0055.790.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0866.6746.540.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.080.0024.17-0.00-0.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0850.0037.890.00-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.0833.3341.16-0.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0633.3349.42-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.000.060.0042.57-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0633.3332.78-0.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.06100.0070.980.000.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0041.59-0.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.060.0063.44-0.000.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.06100.0072.860.000.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0633.3336.99-0.00-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0025.03-0.00-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0039.15-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.060.0032.07-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0650.0037.760.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0650.0056.270.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.06100.0058.780.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.060.0037.13-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0018.27-0.00-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0650.0054.290.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0061.500.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.06100.0070.030.000.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0019.92-0.00-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0063.820.000.02
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0055.850.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0087.190.000.04
HawaiiBW0.000.0675.0054.790.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.06100.0052.260.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0633.3327.10-0.00-0.03
PacificWCC0.000.0650.0029.910.00-0.02
PortlandWCC0.000.06100.0051.660.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.06100.0056.240.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0071.830.000.03
San DiegoWCC0.000.0666.6748.330.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.06100.0062.040.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0633.3364.19-0.000.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.060.0031.23-0.00-0.02
RichmondA100.000.0666.6767.450.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.06100.0056.330.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.0625.0035.71-0.00-0.02
OregonP120.000.06100.0071.440.000.02
AlbanyAE0.000.0633.3362.56-0.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.060.0034.71-0.00-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.0675.0063.040.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.060.0027.82-0.00-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0650.0054.970.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.060.0046.61-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.060.0063.56-0.000.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0633.3344.56-0.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.06100.0063.550.000.02
FurmanSC0.000.0633.3325.18-0.00-0.03
Green BayHorz0.000.060.0067.49-0.000.02
HartfordAE0.000.0675.0042.500.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0650.0052.920.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0620.0027.80-0.00-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.060.0033.14-0.00-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0650.0051.860.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0633.3345.85-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.0024.77-0.00-0.03
RadfordBSth0.000.0633.3348.73-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0633.3349.04-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0625.0049.94-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0633.3364.76-0.000.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0028.50-0.00-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0633.3345.63-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0666.6748.790.00-0.00
VermontAE0.000.0633.3358.93-0.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.060.0049.23-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0633.3341.77-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.06100.0085.100.000.04
SMUAmer0.000.0550.0068.880.000.02
AmericanPat0.000.0550.0054.620.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.050.0035.36-0.00-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.05100.0047.840.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.05100.0085.630.000.04
LamarSlnd0.000.050.0034.03-0.00-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0550.0031.980.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0550.0041.720.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0533.3341.21-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.050.0035.11-0.00-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.050.0025.73-0.00-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0525.0035.65-0.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0566.6758.230.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0540.0040.58-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0533.3343.68-0.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.05100.0065.270.000.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0533.3353.79-0.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0525.0059.16-0.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0566.6758.650.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.030.0048.00-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.030.0023.51-0.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0350.0053.430.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0071.840.000.01
TroySB0.000.030.0045.18-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0069.180.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0069.320.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0333.3335.92-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0350.0044.170.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.000.03100.0037.850.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0333.3354.50-0.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.030.0033.25-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.030.0033.08-0.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0350.0047.120.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.030.0017.53-0.00-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0039.36-0.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0028.19-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0333.3321.74-0.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0073.660.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0042.47-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.000.0350.0053.040.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.030.0033.55-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0325.0019.94-0.00-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.030.0057.63-0.000.00
LehighPat0.000.030.0036.87-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.030.0032.62-0.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0333.3354.70-0.000.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0366.6751.290.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0325.0041.91-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.000.0325.0031.88-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0032.69-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.030.0067.09-0.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.030.0028.08-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0375.0053.860.000.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0333.3355.40-0.000.00
VCUA100.000.03100.0073.570.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0366.6744.970.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0325.0035.61-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.03100.0070.030.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.030.0032.23-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.03100.0052.610.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0350.0038.370.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.030.0046.56-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0333.3357.45-0.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0366.6751.200.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0366.6749.590.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.030.0028.32-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.03100.0056.980.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.030.0056.24-0.000.00
VMISC0.000.0333.3339.27-0.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.030.0045.12-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.03100.0076.190.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6768.230.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0062.070.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0350.0049.760.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.03100.0063.360.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0375.0071.100.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0033.75-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0333.3327.11-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0375.0071.090.000.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0366.6748.850.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0375.0057.060.000.00