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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Iowa

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:139.5
Current RPI:122
Expected SOS:72
Current SOS:68
Current Record:13-11
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:5-6
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.08%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:238
Expected OOC SOS:293



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1177.50.02%
19-1290.40.38%
18-13102.92.89%
17-14115.312.46%
16-15128.425.95%
15-16143.033.34%
14-17159.719.62%
13-18177.85.33%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Iowa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Chicago St. (335.8)GWCH96-53W100%0.0
11-14North Carolina A&T (266.3)MEACH95-79W100%0.0
11-17Northern Illinois (337.4)MACH88-55W100%0.0
11-20Creighton (21.0)MVCN82-59L0%0.0
11-23Campbell (174.5)BSthH61-77L0%0.0
11-26IUPU Fort Wayne (255.0)SumH82-72W100%0.0
11-29Clemson (148.3)ACCH55-71L0%0.0
12-3Brown (305.2)IvyH75-54W100%0.0
12-6Northern Iowa (60.5)MVCA80-60L0%0.0
12-9Iowa St. (39.6)B12A86-76L0%0.0
12-17Drake (135.2)MVCH82-68W100%0.0
12-19Central Arkansas (299.5)SlndH105-64W100%0.0
12-22Boise St. (176.5)MWCH81-72W100%0.0
12-28Purdue (65.0)B10H76-79L0%0.0
12-31Wisconsin (21.8)B10A65-72W100%0.0
1-4Minnesota (68.5)B10A62-64W100%0.0
1-7Ohio St. (3.4)B10H47-76L0%0.0
1-10Michigan St. (8.2)B10A95-61L0%0.0
1-14Michigan (25.3)B10H75-59W100%0.0
1-17Purdue (65.0)B10A75-68L0%0.0
1-26Nebraska (117.6)B10H73-79L0%0.0
1-29Indiana (20.6)B10A103-89L0%0.0
2-1Minnesota (68.5)B10H63-59W100%0.0
2-4Penn St. (163.2)B10H77-64W100%0.0
2-9Northwestern (66.2)B10A0-030%-5.8
2-16Penn St. (163.2)B10A0-048%-0.5
2-19Indiana (20.6)B10H0-021%-8.7
2-23Wisconsin (21.8)B10H0-016%-11.0
2-26Illinois (39.4)B10A0-022%-8.6
2-29Nebraska (117.6)B10A0-043%-2.0
3-3Northwestern (66.2)B10H0-053%0.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Iowa's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Iowa's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Iowa.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IowaB1026.3126.2146.0843.54-2.06-3.39
PurdueB104.593.9561.9057.861.090.62
Penn St.B102.543.9443.4839.55-0.33-0.82
MinnesotaB104.443.9276.1965.532.331.22
NorthwesternB100.503.9161.9054.910.120.38
NebraskaB102.443.9150.0044.320.00-0.44
WisconsinB102.503.8978.2676.171.412.03
IndianaB102.683.8873.9174.841.281.93
IllinoisB100.552.4172.7363.960.250.67
Michigan St.B102.452.3875.0071.981.221.05
MichiganB102.582.3876.1969.111.350.91
Ohio St.B102.402.3686.3684.971.751.65
CreightonMVC2.451.9286.9684.901.811.34
DrakeMVC2.411.8154.5551.880.220.07
Chicago St.GWC2.221.755.0010.31-2.00-1.39
Northern IowaMVC2.311.7560.8760.170.500.36
CampbellBSth2.231.7054.1754.120.190.14
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.221.7035.0038.63-0.67-0.39
Iowa St.B122.221.6972.7367.381.010.59
IUPU Fort WayneSum2.171.6936.8436.72-0.57-0.45
Northern IllinoisMAC2.221.695.567.58-1.98-1.44
Boise St.MWC2.181.6745.0042.65-0.22-0.25
Central ArkansasSlnd2.131.6429.4131.07-0.88-0.62
BrownIvy2.081.6128.5724.62-0.89-0.82
ClemsonACC2.081.6147.6246.58-0.10-0.11
Southern IllinoisMVC0.280.2534.7832.06-0.09-0.09
EvansvilleMVC0.180.2445.4544.02-0.02-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.360.2456.5254.220.050.02
BradleyMVC0.270.2424.0024.86-0.14-0.12
Illinois St.MVC0.230.2262.5062.060.060.05
Central MichiganMAC0.240.1928.5734.20-0.10-0.06
Wichita St.MVC0.180.1982.6180.420.120.12
South Dakota St.Sum0.240.1773.9175.490.120.09
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.150.1782.6181.440.100.10
Eastern MichiganMAC0.240.1740.9138.38-0.04-0.04
Missouri St.MVC0.260.1654.1757.200.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.1652.3857.860.000.03
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.150.1434.7835.20-0.04-0.04
Houston BaptistGWC0.180.1425.0028.52-0.09-0.06
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.090.1419.0524.61-0.06-0.07
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.190.1456.5257.720.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.170.1334.7838.77-0.05-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.180.1356.5255.200.020.01
CornellIvy0.040.1336.8441.45-0.01-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.1350.0058.160.000.02
South DakotaSum0.100.1226.3228.83-0.05-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1133.3334.47-0.04-0.04
Air ForceMWC0.140.1147.3742.16-0.01-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.190.1161.9063.520.050.03
San Diego St.MWC0.140.1185.7178.050.100.06
Texas ChristianMWC0.100.1157.1449.540.01-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.150.1140.9142.96-0.03-0.02
DePaulBE0.200.1150.0042.830.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.1138.8943.93-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.100.1147.8343.66-0.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.140.1181.8276.800.090.06
WinthropBSth0.130.1134.7834.61-0.04-0.03
Southern CaliforniaP120.140.1125.0025.13-0.07-0.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.1145.4545.70-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.1139.1342.12-0.01-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.140.1142.1149.81-0.02-0.00
DukeACC0.190.1186.3683.090.140.07
BaylorB120.000.1190.9183.850.000.07
High PointBSth0.130.1131.8232.75-0.05-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.090.1186.9683.160.070.07
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.1170.8364.420.040.03
Stony BrookAE0.040.1166.6768.050.010.04
Western CarolinaSC0.180.1034.7837.24-0.05-0.03
ButlerHorz0.130.1050.0050.800.000.00
KentuckySEC0.090.1095.8392.570.080.09
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.130.1026.0928.60-0.06-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.120.0955.0054.480.010.01
OaklandSum0.100.0948.0050.21-0.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.150.0952.6348.410.01-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.100.0955.0057.410.010.01
ToledoMAC0.100.0938.1040.81-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.160.0961.9067.230.040.03
Utah ValleyGWC0.100.0954.5557.690.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.150.0965.2263.610.050.02
OhioMAC0.150.0981.8277.200.090.05
DartmouthIvy0.100.0814.2917.17-0.07-0.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0826.3229.71-0.00-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0866.6760.800.030.02
XavierA100.140.0865.2263.740.040.02
Louisiana St.SEC0.050.0859.0957.280.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.100.0820.8320.60-0.06-0.05
HowardMEAC0.090.0818.1822.22-0.06-0.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.090.0872.2271.970.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.100.0872.7371.710.040.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0831.8242.13-0.02-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.040.0860.8759.050.010.01
MississippiSEC0.090.0863.6456.710.020.01
ProvidenceBE0.140.0856.5250.270.020.00
Appalachian St.SC0.130.0835.0039.29-0.04-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0830.4326.44-0.04-0.04
HartfordAE0.090.0817.3920.97-0.06-0.05
Miami FLACC0.140.0865.0060.020.040.02
RadfordBSth0.090.088.7013.10-0.07-0.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0862.5062.490.020.02
KansasB120.140.0878.2678.390.080.04
MissouriB120.050.0891.3087.180.040.06
IUPUISum0.100.0634.7835.50-0.03-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0641.1842.61-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0625.0023.75-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0680.7780.750.030.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0627.7829.58-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahSum0.100.0645.4544.30-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.110.064.359.66-0.10-0.05
AkronMAC0.050.0668.1867.910.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.0638.1042.78-0.02-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0619.0522.37-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.WAC0.100.0639.1344.52-0.02-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0681.8281.030.030.04
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.050.0633.3338.38-0.02-0.01
North DakotaGWC0.050.0633.3341.31-0.02-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0610.0014.93-0.00-0.04
WyomingMWC0.050.0676.1970.730.030.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.0647.6248.82-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.090.0621.0522.46-0.05-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.050.0630.0034.15-0.02-0.02
HawaiiWAC0.100.0657.1453.120.010.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0671.4373.350.020.03
St. Mary'sWCC0.090.0690.9187.740.080.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0616.6723.02-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0650.0048.900.00-0.00
OregonP120.050.0669.5764.530.020.02
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.050.0519.0521.29-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0555.0060.330.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0555.0054.800.000.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0590.4887.910.040.04
LibertyBSth0.040.0527.2727.21-0.02-0.02
NC AshevilleBSth0.080.0568.1867.640.030.02
PennsylvaniaIvy0.050.0554.5556.840.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0540.9143.66-0.02-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0547.3752.87-0.000.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0565.2263.740.000.01
YaleIvy0.090.0572.2263.190.040.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0581.8281.490.030.03
LehighPat0.090.0573.9174.910.050.03
MarylandACC0.000.0559.0950.820.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.0530.0031.54-0.04-0.02
RiceCUSA0.090.0547.6246.46-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0540.9139.56-0.02-0.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.090.0545.0044.15-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.090.0568.1869.100.030.02
Brigham YoungWCC0.040.0575.0076.000.020.03
BucknellPat0.090.0573.9175.000.040.03
ChattanoogaSC0.040.0527.2735.02-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.040.0530.4329.50-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.090.0560.8760.960.020.01
DuquesneA100.040.0559.0956.350.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0554.5554.300.010.00
IonaMAAC0.090.0579.1780.100.050.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0572.7368.280.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.040.058.7011.67-0.04-0.04
LafayettePat0.040.0543.4842.95-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.050.0543.4843.82-0.01-0.01
Long IslandNEC0.040.0570.8371.050.020.02
MarquetteBE0.040.0579.1775.980.030.03
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.040.0513.6416.35-0.03-0.04
Notre DameBE0.040.0565.2262.650.010.01
OklahomaB120.050.0559.0954.700.010.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0545.4540.70-0.00-0.01
South FloridaBE0.040.0554.5548.600.00-0.00
St. Peter'sMAAC0.090.0521.7424.58-0.05-0.03
StetsonASun0.040.0531.8231.31-0.02-0.02
TempleA100.090.0577.2775.060.050.03
TexasB120.090.0560.8761.370.020.01
Texas A&MB120.050.0552.3846.150.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.050.0531.8225.98-0.02-0.02
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.040.0535.0039.38-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.040.0559.0957.930.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.040.0550.0051.530.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0337.5038.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0051.730.000.00
Louisiana TechWAC0.000.0342.8643.45-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0330.0033.20-0.02-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0326.3229.79-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0347.6247.18-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.060.0369.5768.290.020.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0347.0650.75-0.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0318.1821.13-0.00-0.02
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.060.0376.1975.940.030.02
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.000.0357.1460.750.000.01
Texas St.Slnd0.000.0322.2227.62-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0368.4266.450.020.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0330.0030.06-0.02-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0371.4369.050.020.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0371.4366.600.020.01
CincinnatiBE0.050.0369.5765.470.020.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0335.2939.85-0.01-0.01
DenverSB0.050.0370.8372.230.020.01
HoustonCUSA0.050.0347.6244.63-0.00-0.00
IdahoWAC0.050.0347.6251.08-0.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0333.3333.88-0.02-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0320.0019.96-0.03-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0325.0037.58-0.02-0.01
NC GreensboroSC0.050.0334.7833.46-0.02-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0368.1869.680.000.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0363.6463.160.010.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0321.7421.70-0.03-0.02
UtahP120.050.0318.1815.01-0.03-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0369.5768.900.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0317.6527.10-0.03-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0330.0037.30-0.02-0.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0360.0060.420.010.01
AmericanPat0.050.0365.2263.790.010.01
ArizonaP120.050.0366.6768.550.020.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0369.5765.150.020.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0343.4844.25-0.01-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0317.3924.41-0.03-0.01
BryantNEC0.050.038.3310.86-0.04-0.02
College of CharlestonSC0.050.0358.3359.980.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.040.0344.4441.71-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0352.3852.860.000.00
FurmanSC0.050.0347.6248.83-0.00-0.00
George MasonCAA0.050.0376.0072.500.020.01
Longwoodind0.050.0330.0027.84-0.02-0.01
MaineAE0.050.0350.0049.730.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0368.0069.070.020.01
MemphisCUSA0.050.0369.5771.510.020.01
MonmouthNEC0.050.0328.0028.91-0.02-0.01
NC WilmingtonCAA0.040.0339.1336.10-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0335.0038.58-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCAA0.040.0360.0058.290.010.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0344.0045.89-0.01-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0356.5255.950.010.00
Texas El PasoCUSA0.050.0343.4843.31-0.01-0.00
The CitadelSC0.050.039.5211.44-0.04-0.02
TowsonCAA0.050.034.005.26-0.04-0.02
UABCUSA0.040.0340.9139.82-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.050.0354.5556.790.000.00
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.000.0380.0078.060.000.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0382.6177.630.030.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0319.0525.52-0.03-0.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0345.8346.68-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0335.0040.78-0.01-0.00
RichmondA100.000.0350.0048.490.00-0.00
South Carolina UpstateASun0.050.0354.5556.090.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0360.0059.060.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.050.0341.6740.61-0.01-0.00