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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Iowa

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:79.0
Current RPI:79
Expected SOS:103
Current SOS:103
Current Record:21-12
Expected Record:21-12
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:98
Expected OOC SOS:311



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1279.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Iowa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Texas Pan American (306.0)GWCH86-55W100%0.0
11-12Central Michigan (268.0)MACH73-61W100%0.0
11-15Howard (334.0)MEACH66-36W100%0.0
11-17Gardner Webb (194.0)BSthH65-56W100%0.0
11-20Western Kentucky (150.0)SBN55-63W100%0.0
11-21Wichita St. (37.0)MVCN63-75L0%0.0
11-27Virginia Tech (177.0)ACCA95-79L0%0.0
12-1Texas A&M Corpus Chris (323.0)SlndH88-59W100%0.0
12-4South Dakota (240.0)SumH87-63W100%0.0
12-7Iowa St. (41.0)B12H80-71W100%0.0
12-15Northern Iowa (83.0)MVCN73-80W100%0.0
12-19South Carolina St. (342.0)MEACH90-46W100%0.0
12-22Coppin St. (313.0)MEACH80-50W100%0.0
12-31Indiana (8.0)B10H65-69L0%0.0
1-6Michigan (20.0)B10A95-67L0%0.0
1-10Michigan St. (9.0)B10H59-62L0%0.0
1-13Northwestern (168.0)B10A50-70W100%0.0
1-19Wisconsin (32.0)B10H70-66W100%0.0
1-22Ohio St. (10.0)B10A72-63L0%0.0
1-27Purdue (136.0)B10A65-62L0%0.0
1-31Penn St. (186.0)B10H76-67W100%0.0
2-3Minnesota (34.0)B10A62-59L0%0.0
2-6Wisconsin (32.0)B10A74-70L0%0.0
2-9Northwestern (168.0)B10H71-57W100%0.0
2-14Penn St. (186.0)B10A72-74W100%0.0
2-17Minnesota (34.0)B10H72-51W100%0.0
2-23Nebraska (104.0)B10A64-60L0%0.0
2-27Purdue (136.0)B10H58-48W100%0.0
3-2Indiana (8.0)B10A73-60L0%0.0
3-5Illinois (40.0)B10H63-55W100%0.0
3-9Nebraska (104.0)B10H74-60W100%0.0
3-14Northwestern (168.0)B10A59-73W100%0.0
3-15Michigan St. (9.0)B10N59-56L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Iowa's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Iowa's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Iowa.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IowaB1026.2626.2662.2062.206.416.41
NorthwesternB105.165.1644.8344.83-0.53-0.53
NebraskaB103.783.7845.1645.16-0.37-0.37
IndianaB103.783.7880.6580.652.322.32
WisconsinB103.783.7868.7568.751.421.42
PurdueB103.763.7646.6746.67-0.25-0.25
Michigan St.B103.753.7573.3373.331.751.75
MinnesotaB103.753.7563.3363.331.001.00
Penn St.B103.753.7534.4834.48-1.16-1.16
Ohio St.B102.402.4078.1278.121.351.35
MichiganB102.382.3877.4277.421.311.31
IllinoisB102.382.3865.6265.620.740.74
Coppin St.MEAC1.641.6423.3323.33-0.87-0.87
HowardMEAC1.641.6421.4321.43-0.94-0.94
Wichita St.MVC1.591.5975.7675.760.820.82
Central MichiganMAC1.581.5834.4834.48-0.49-0.49
South Carolina St.MEAC1.571.5714.8114.81-1.10-1.10
Gardner WebbBSth1.561.5662.0762.070.380.38
Northern IowaMVC1.561.5656.6756.670.210.21
Iowa St.B121.521.5268.7568.750.570.57
South DakotaSum1.521.5229.6329.63-0.62-0.62
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.521.5218.5218.52-0.95-0.95
Texas Pan AmericanGWC1.521.5244.4444.44-0.17-0.17
Virginia TechACC1.521.5238.7138.71-0.34-0.34
Western KentuckySB1.521.5257.5857.580.230.23
Delaware St.MEAC0.250.2541.9441.94-0.04-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.210.2154.5554.550.020.02
CreightonMVC0.210.2179.4179.410.120.12
Ball St.MAC0.200.2048.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.190.1934.4834.48-0.06-0.06
BradleyMVC0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.150.1567.8667.860.060.06
ToledoMAC0.150.1553.5753.570.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.150.1541.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.150.1530.0030.00-0.06-0.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.150.1570.9770.970.060.06
MarylandACC0.150.1564.7164.710.040.04
StanfordP120.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
Southern CaliforniaP120.140.1443.7543.75-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
ButlerA100.140.1475.7675.760.070.07
KansasB120.140.1485.2985.290.100.10
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
LamarSlnd0.130.139.689.68-0.10-0.10
HamptonMEAC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.130.1352.9452.940.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Texas St.WAC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
ClemsonACC0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
TexasB120.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
DukeACC0.120.1284.3884.380.080.08
BaylorB120.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
Texas ChristianB120.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
DrakeMVC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticSB0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.110.1148.0048.00-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.GWC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
OaklandSum0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.107.147.14-0.09-0.09
Oregon St.P120.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.100.1013.3313.33-0.07-0.07
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
Kansas St.B120.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
BucknellPat0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
SouthernSWAC0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
OklahomaB120.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
PresbyterianBSth0.100.1017.2417.24-0.06-0.06
North CarolinaACC0.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
Miami FLACC0.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0917.8617.86-0.06-0.06
South AlabamaSB0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.090.0941.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0871.4371.430.030.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
AlbanyAE0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
LibertyBSth0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
AmericanPat0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
NC AshevilleBSth0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MemphisCUSA0.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
BrownIvy0.070.0744.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
DePaulBE0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0775.0075.000.030.03
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Florida InternationalSB0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0714.8114.81-0.05-0.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
HoustonCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
New Orleansind0.050.0518.1818.18-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0570.3770.370.020.02
Oral RobertsSlnd0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0585.1985.190.040.04
Texas ArlingtonWAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Utah ValleyGWC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
DenverWAC0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0542.3142.31-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.050.0593.7593.750.040.04
MissouriSEC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
PittsburghBE0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Virginia Military InstBSth0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DuquesneA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
PennsylvaniaIvy0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
ColgatePat0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.050.0565.5265.520.010.01
ConnecticutBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
LafayettePat0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Notre DameBE0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
RichmondA100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
XavierA100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
LouisvilleBE0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Brigham YoungWCC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
OregonP120.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
Texas El PasoCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.040.0451.6151.610.000.00
CaliforniaP120.040.0464.5264.520.010.01
CornellIvy0.040.0440.0040.00-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.040.0478.7978.790.030.03
MarquetteBE0.040.0474.1974.190.020.02
Middle TennesseeSB0.040.0484.8584.850.030.03
North TexasSB0.040.0436.6736.67-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.040.0432.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Southern MississippiCUSA0.040.0471.8871.880.020.02
TroySB0.040.0436.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Virginia CommonwealthA100.040.0476.4776.470.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0328.0028.00-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Texas San AntonioWAC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Utah St.WAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Boston UniversityAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Central FloridaCUSA0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
RutgersBE0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CharlotteA100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
College of CharlestonSC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0353.8553.850.000.00
High PointBSth0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
OhioMAC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
George MasonCAA0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Loyola MDMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
St. Mary'sWCC0.020.0281.2581.250.020.02
TowsonCAA0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
WagnerNEC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Appalachian St.SC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.020.026.906.90-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NC GreensboroSC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiBE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
YaleIvy0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
DetroitHorz0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00