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Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


Iowa

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:8.5
Current RPI:7
Expected SOS:20
Current SOS:13
Current Record:19-5
Expected Record:24-6
Current Conf Record:10-2
Expected Conf Record:15-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:51
Expected OOC SOS:86



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-54.619.64%
24-67.240.79%
23-710.428.25%
22-814.59.73%
21-919.41.47%
20-1024.60.11%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Iowa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Gardner Webb (221.5)BSthH76-59W100%0.0
11-15Coppin St. (327.4)MEACH103-68W100%0.0
11-19Marquette (118.1)BEA61-89W100%0.0
11-26Dayton (13.7)A10N82-77L0%0.0
11-27Notre Dame (31.3)ACCN62-68L0%0.0
11-29Wichita St. (35.2)MVCN84-61W100%0.0
12-2Florida St. (50.6)ACCH78-75W100%0.0
12-5UMKC (273.6)WACH95-75W100%0.0
12-7Western Illinois (243.2)SumH90-56W100%0.0
12-10Iowa St. (20.7)B12A83-82L0%0.0
12-19Drake (302.9)MVCN70-64W100%0.0
12-22Tennessee Tech (109.5)OVCH85-63W100%0.0
12-29Michigan St. (18.7)B10H83-70W100%0.0
1-2Purdue (14.5)B10A63-70W100%0.0
1-5Nebraska (149.2)B10H77-66W100%0.0
1-14Michigan St. (18.7)B10A59-76W100%0.0
1-17Michigan (47.5)B10H82-71W100%0.0
1-21Rutgers (280.8)B10A76-90W100%0.0
1-24Purdue (14.5)B10H83-71W100%0.0
1-28Maryland (5.3)B10A74-68L0%0.0
1-31Northwestern (120.7)B10H85-71W100%0.0
2-3Penn St. (131.5)B10H73-49W100%0.0
2-7Illinois (156.9)B10A65-77W100%0.0
2-11Indiana (31.4)B10A85-78L0%0.0
2-14Minnesota (243.7)B10H0-097%21.2
2-17Penn St. (131.5)B10A0-088%12.6
2-24Wisconsin (56.6)B10H0-085%11.2
2-28Ohio St. (90.5)B10A0-074%6.9
3-1Indiana (31.4)B10H0-067%4.9
3-5Michigan (47.5)B10A0-055%1.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Iowa's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Iowa's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Iowa.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IowaB1026.2326.1281.0080.5616.2615.96
Penn St.B102.463.9352.1749.570.11-0.03
MichiganB102.553.9373.9169.921.221.57
PurdueB104.513.9186.9683.283.332.60
IndianaB102.393.9079.1776.341.392.06
Michigan St.B104.553.9086.9687.183.362.90
WisconsinB100.612.4162.5058.390.150.40
MinnesotaB100.602.3525.0028.11-0.30-1.03
IllinoisB102.512.3547.8345.54-0.11-0.21
NebraskaB102.552.3454.1752.450.210.12
MarylandB102.512.3286.9683.101.851.53
NorthwesternB102.382.2966.6764.160.790.65
Ohio St.B100.472.2960.0056.540.090.30
RutgersB102.512.2922.7321.04-1.37-1.33
Notre DameACC2.171.7869.5766.820.850.60
DrakeMVC2.221.7621.7424.11-1.26-0.91
Iowa St.B122.181.7369.5766.900.850.58
Wichita St.MVC2.171.7277.2779.541.181.02
UMKCWAC2.131.7230.0034.06-0.85-0.55
Florida St.ACC2.081.6969.5765.480.820.52
Coppin St.MEAC2.131.6915.0021.47-1.49-0.97
MarquetteBE2.081.6966.6759.820.690.33
Western IllinoisSum2.081.6933.3333.43-0.69-0.56
DaytonA102.081.6786.3681.551.521.05
Gardner WebbBSth2.081.6745.4546.95-0.19-0.10
Tennessee TechOVC2.081.6768.1866.810.760.56
Chicago St.WAC0.270.234.357.72-0.25-0.20
CreightonBE0.230.2364.0062.070.070.06
DePaulBE0.210.1933.3334.02-0.07-0.06
Boston CollegeACC0.260.1929.1726.69-0.11-0.09
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.190.1845.8343.78-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.170.1641.6739.90-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.150.1644.0043.56-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.200.1539.1341.05-0.04-0.03
IUPUISum0.230.1538.4638.50-0.05-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.159.0912.26-0.07-0.11
HowardMEAC0.180.1536.3638.97-0.05-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.180.1456.0054.080.020.01
Missouri St.MVC0.090.1437.5037.41-0.02-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.180.1456.0055.450.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.180.1479.1775.990.100.07
George WashingtonA100.180.1475.0071.960.090.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.180.1440.0043.39-0.04-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.1450.0048.950.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.180.1458.3358.400.030.02
Miami FLACC0.130.1482.6177.580.080.08
XavierBE0.170.1487.5081.850.130.09
Youngstown St.Horz0.170.1430.4332.26-0.07-0.05
FloridaSEC0.210.1466.6766.320.070.04
St. John'sBE0.170.1425.0023.45-0.09-0.07
ProvidenceBE0.210.1372.0069.130.090.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.160.1358.3358.580.030.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1373.9174.640.050.06
IPFWSum0.100.1270.8368.660.040.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.140.1260.8759.830.030.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.130.1227.2727.80-0.06-0.05
BradleyMVC0.130.1212.0011.95-0.10-0.09
EvansvilleMVC0.130.1272.0073.080.060.05
Indiana St.MVC0.130.1250.0049.480.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.130.1273.0872.610.060.05
Morehead St.OVC0.090.1252.1753.440.000.01
RadfordBSth0.130.1252.1754.100.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.180.1129.1733.75-0.07-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.090.1145.8342.30-0.01-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.180.1183.3383.710.120.08
VanderbiltSEC0.170.1158.3359.970.030.02
VMISC0.090.1119.0519.67-0.05-0.07
Seton HallBE0.170.1170.8368.080.070.04
ConnecticutAmer0.090.1170.8370.130.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.170.1183.3378.380.110.06
Rhode IslandA100.090.1158.3357.250.010.02
SyracuseACC0.090.1168.0064.090.030.03
DukeACC0.090.1175.0071.840.040.05
PittsburghACC0.170.1172.7367.600.080.04
DuquesneA100.130.1160.8756.270.030.01
TexasB120.090.1166.6762.200.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.130.1152.0048.920.01-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.090.1156.0052.870.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.170.1124.0025.68-0.09-0.05
ButlerBE0.120.1170.8369.000.050.04
KansasB120.130.1182.6179.200.080.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0965.2268.600.030.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0950.0049.320.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.140.099.5210.67-0.11-0.07
LibertyBSth0.090.0934.7836.53-0.03-0.02
BelmontOVC0.090.0968.0066.640.030.03
PresbyterianBSth0.130.0923.8125.49-0.07-0.04
Kansas St.B120.090.0958.3356.290.020.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.130.0929.1733.11-0.06-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.130.0914.2924.90-0.09-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.130.0960.8755.980.030.01
Saint LouisA100.090.0934.7832.39-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0840.0042.85-0.02-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.130.0820.0022.25-0.08-0.05
UNLVMWC0.090.0852.1755.070.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.040.0854.1752.000.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.130.0880.0081.160.080.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.040.0860.8762.470.010.02
UMass LowellAE0.130.0837.5037.69-0.03-0.02
VCUA100.040.0870.8371.050.020.03
VirginiaACC0.090.0883.3378.460.060.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.130.0826.0927.89-0.06-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.040.0845.4549.05-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.090.0860.8755.310.020.01
ColoradoP120.090.0870.8365.580.040.03
OklahomaB120.090.0886.9682.620.060.05
VillanovaBE0.080.0887.5086.850.060.06
DenverSum0.110.0752.0049.300.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0741.6742.39-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.100.0666.6767.670.030.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0682.6181.130.030.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0619.0525.90-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0643.4850.64-0.010.00
SeattleWAC0.100.0647.6245.02-0.00-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0614.2915.44-0.04-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0633.3334.95-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0650.0050.500.000.00
CampbellBSth0.090.0631.8232.08-0.03-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0657.1457.670.010.01
High PointBSth0.090.0657.1459.870.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0624.0024.16-0.02-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.050.0621.7424.60-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0668.1865.170.030.02
FordhamA100.090.0652.3850.690.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0643.4843.77-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0652.1754.130.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.090.0650.0052.940.000.00
FurmanSC0.090.0656.0054.430.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.090.0634.7833.02-0.03-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0613.0415.26-0.07-0.04
NevadaMWC0.090.0657.1455.360.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0643.4837.80-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0650.0054.180.000.00
LSUSEC0.090.0662.5059.080.020.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0616.6719.49-0.06-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.090.0650.0048.130.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.0635.0034.83-0.03-0.02
BryantNEC0.040.0624.0024.92-0.02-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.040.0637.5042.32-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.040.0650.0050.070.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.040.0650.0049.760.00-0.00
La SalleA100.090.0619.0520.30-0.06-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.040.0631.8235.12-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.040.0686.9682.920.030.04
St. BonaventureA100.050.0672.7370.410.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0652.1751.830.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.040.0542.3146.12-0.01-0.00
North FloridaASun0.090.0562.5064.120.020.02
TempleAmer0.000.0565.2262.370.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.040.0540.0040.34-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.040.0573.9168.450.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.080.0524.0026.44-0.04-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.080.0560.8760.440.020.01
BucknellPat0.040.0552.1754.940.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.040.0542.3144.53-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0572.0071.570.040.02
DrexelCAA0.040.0513.0416.42-0.03-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.040.0515.0018.13-0.03-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.0552.9452.100.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.040.0525.0026.38-0.02-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.040.0565.2260.600.010.01
LehighPat0.080.0539.1342.83-0.02-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.040.0522.2231.22-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.090.0533.3330.28-0.03-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.080.0558.3360.710.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.080.0548.0048.60-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.080.0565.3865.510.030.02
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0558.3363.180.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.040.059.0917.14-0.03-0.04
TCUB120.040.0545.8339.36-0.00-0.01
VermontAE0.080.0552.0054.860.000.01
West VirginiaB120.040.0579.1778.100.030.03
AkronMAC0.050.0382.6181.140.030.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0331.8236.11-0.02-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0366.6764.780.020.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0325.0025.08-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0359.0961.280.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0352.1749.150.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0338.1037.67-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0362.5057.730.010.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0377.2773.930.030.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0321.7422.42-0.03-0.02
ArmyPat0.050.0354.1754.290.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0360.8760.240.010.01
LipscombASun0.050.0328.0030.49-0.02-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0347.8350.89-0.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0326.9228.60-0.02-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0362.5063.450.010.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0366.6763.780.020.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0366.6764.700.020.01
USCP120.050.0378.2673.130.030.01
UtahP120.050.0370.8368.520.020.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.040.0350.0045.770.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.040.0358.3360.900.010.01
TulaneAmer0.040.0336.0034.84-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.040.0366.6769.750.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.040.0345.4546.08-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0325.0029.89-0.02-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0312.5013.27-0.03-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.040.0321.7422.75-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.050.0361.9058.170.010.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0352.1753.720.000.00
George MasonA100.050.0333.3333.63-0.02-0.01
HofstraCAA0.040.0366.6766.770.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.040.0347.8348.57-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.040.0350.0051.110.000.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0343.4842.40-0.01-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.040.0318.1821.11-0.03-0.02
OhioMAC0.040.0363.6461.470.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.040.0372.2274.700.020.01
RichmondA100.000.0356.5255.820.000.00
RiderMAAC0.040.0340.0042.04-0.01-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0383.3381.280.000.02
Stony BrookAE0.040.0382.6183.010.030.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0368.1867.110.020.01
Arizona St.P120.040.0354.1751.700.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.040.0356.5257.060.010.00
ColumbiaIvy0.040.0366.6765.240.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.040.0354.1754.090.000.00
Green BayHorz0.000.0356.5257.700.000.00
KentuckySEC0.000.0375.0072.610.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0372.7370.520.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.040.0333.3335.18-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.040.0332.0031.16-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0358.3359.310.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0366.6767.110.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.040.0326.3232.40-0.02-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0345.0048.13-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0360.0057.650.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.040.0333.3336.31-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.040.0340.0041.68-0.01-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.040.0323.8122.86-0.02-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0365.3864.970.000.01
StetsonASun0.040.0322.7327.39-0.02-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.040.0375.0075.340.020.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0376.1972.370.000.01
UABCUSA0.040.0383.3379.820.030.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0368.1871.350.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.040.0331.8234.54-0.02-0.01
YaleIvy0.040.0373.6874.620.020.01