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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Iowa

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:195.6
Current RPI:259
Expected SOS:70
Current SOS:192
Current Record:3-5
Expected Record:12-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:3-5
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:263
Expected OOC SOS:216



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1258.00.01%
18-1390.80.27%
17-14105.70.67%
16-15121.22.09%
15-16137.95.11%
14-17155.610.09%
13-18173.015.11%
12-19189.919.16%
11-20207.818.78%
10-21225.014.89%
9-22241.48.85%
8-23256.53.61%
7-24271.11.08%
6-25281.90.24%
5-26296.30.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Iowa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Kennesaw St. (309.0)ASunH91-74W100%0.0
11-13Savannah St. (346.4)MEACH116-84W100%0.0
11-17Seton Hall (75.4)BEH83-91L0%0.0
11-20UT Rio Grande Valley (318.0)WACH95-67W100%0.0
11-25Virginia (8.6)ACCN41-74L0%0.0
11-26Memphis (147.9)AmerN100-92L0%0.0
11-29Notre Dame (23.3)ACCA92-78L0%0.0
12-3Nebraska Omaha (145.1)SumH89-98L0%0.0
12-5Stetson (319.1)ASunH0-094%18.2
12-8Iowa St. (32.0)B12H0-016%-11.9
12-17Northern Iowa (117.4)MVCN0-041%-2.6
12-20North Dakota (236.5)BSkyH0-078%9.4
12-22Delaware St. (285.3)MEACH0-092%17.1
12-28Purdue (28.0)B10A0-07%-17.8
1-1Michigan (38.7)B10H0-026%-7.6
1-5Nebraska (86.3)B10A0-029%-6.8
1-8Rutgers (168.4)B10H0-067%5.1
1-12Purdue (28.0)B10H0-017%-11.6
1-15Northwestern (51.2)B10A0-015%-12.5
1-19Maryland (85.4)B10H0-049%-0.4
1-25Illinois (93.1)B10A0-028%-7.1
1-28Ohio St. (39.3)B10H0-029%-6.6
1-31Rutgers (168.4)B10A0-046%-1.2
2-5Nebraska (86.3)B10H0-048%-0.5
2-8Minnesota (36.2)B10A0-017%-11.5
2-11Michigan St. (48.5)B10A0-016%-12.0
2-18Illinois (93.1)B10H0-047%-0.9
2-21Indiana (20.4)B10H0-018%-10.9
2-25Maryland (85.4)B10A0-029%-6.7
3-2Wisconsin (22.2)B10A0-06%-18.4
3-5Penn St. (121.4)B10H0-055%1.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Iowa's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Iowa's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Iowa.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IowaB1028.1926.1125.0030.88-14.10-9.99
MarylandB100.003.8187.5059.190.000.70
RutgersB100.003.8185.7145.490.00-0.34
IllinoisB100.003.7862.5049.850.00-0.01
PurdueB100.003.7875.0074.450.001.85
NebraskaB100.003.7557.1443.660.00-0.48
NorthwesternB100.392.3375.0065.540.200.72
MichiganB100.392.2875.0066.210.200.74
Ohio St.B100.392.2887.5068.540.290.84
Penn St.B100.002.2866.6746.480.00-0.16
Michigan St.B100.002.2555.5657.760.000.35
IndianaB100.002.2587.5074.250.001.09
MinnesotaB100.002.2287.5067.520.000.78
WisconsinB100.002.2277.7875.450.001.13
Notre DameACC6.251.72100.0076.626.250.91
Kennesaw St.ASun6.251.7028.5731.35-2.68-0.63
Savannah St.MEAC6.641.690.0019.36-6.64-1.04
Iowa St.B120.391.6771.4367.520.170.59
MemphisAmer6.991.6771.4354.012.990.13
StetsonASun0.001.6728.5729.04-0.00-0.70
Delaware St.MEAC0.001.6712.5039.08-0.00-0.36
Seton HallBE6.251.6766.6752.992.080.10
VirginiaACC6.251.6685.7177.774.460.92
Northern IowaMVC0.001.6533.3352.63-0.000.09
North DakotaBSky0.001.6433.3355.68-0.000.19
Nebraska OmahaSum6.251.6433.3353.43-2.080.11
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC6.641.6425.0022.02-3.32-0.92
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.2014.2938.26-0.00-0.05
NJITASun0.000.1950.0049.780.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.1975.0049.180.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.1887.5075.590.000.09
North FloridaASun0.000.1812.5034.79-0.00-0.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.390.170.0022.58-0.39-0.09
IUPUISum0.000.1637.5051.64-0.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.1685.7162.990.000.04
North CarolinaACC0.000.1687.5081.960.000.10
St. John'sBE0.000.1637.5037.03-0.00-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.1687.5065.250.000.05
VillanovaBE0.000.16100.0084.840.000.11
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1457.1471.940.000.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.390.140.0020.75-0.39-0.08
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.140.0035.95-0.00-0.04
Fort WayneSum0.000.1471.4370.210.000.06
HowardMEAC0.000.1416.6744.34-0.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.450.1487.5059.310.330.03
Chicago St.WAC0.390.1420.0022.75-0.23-0.07
KansasB120.000.1487.5075.860.000.07
CreightonBE0.000.14100.0076.630.000.07
OklahomaB120.000.1371.4348.350.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.390.1385.7183.660.280.09
Miami FLACC0.000.1375.0066.100.000.04
DePaulBE0.000.1366.6735.430.00-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.000.1355.5647.890.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.780.1375.0056.590.390.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1257.1458.940.000.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.120.0022.01-0.00-0.07
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.390.1214.2932.19-0.28-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1257.1459.280.000.02
LipscombASun0.000.1212.5033.04-0.00-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.000.1244.4441.30-0.00-0.02
South DakotaSum0.000.1150.0046.020.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.1157.1471.520.000.05
XavierBE0.000.1187.5070.890.000.05
Western IllinoisSum0.000.110.0016.68-0.00-0.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.350.1142.8638.63-0.05-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.1171.4354.860.000.01
UCLAP120.000.11100.0086.690.000.08
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1171.4354.310.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.1128.5738.15-0.00-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.450.1116.6739.78-0.30-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1175.0051.040.000.00
SMUAmer0.000.1166.6766.860.000.04
ButlerBE0.000.11100.0074.440.000.05
MarquetteBE0.000.1175.0066.410.000.03
TexasB120.000.1157.1438.680.00-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.1057.1436.010.00-0.03
DukeACC0.000.1088.8978.400.000.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.100.0025.23-0.00-0.05
Portland St.BSky0.350.0940.0043.41-0.07-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0912.5029.15-0.00-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0942.8660.54-0.000.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.0950.0062.380.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0914.2942.67-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.090.0027.12-0.00-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0925.0039.59-0.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0962.5052.330.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC1.130.0925.0031.41-0.56-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC1.130.0914.2926.74-0.81-0.04
DrakeMVC0.000.080.0019.67-0.00-0.05
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0842.8650.11-0.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.080.0034.47-0.00-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0842.8658.58-0.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.080.0022.31-0.00-0.05
SeattleWAC0.390.0816.6739.49-0.26-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0857.1449.130.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0875.0086.710.000.06
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0877.7849.900.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0871.4373.490.000.04
North TexasCUSA0.000.0833.3330.44-0.00-0.03
Arizona St.P120.000.0862.5040.460.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0885.7178.280.000.05
South FloridaAmer0.390.0857.1433.230.06-0.03
UCFAmer0.000.0885.7176.240.000.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.450.0833.3332.92-0.15-0.03
BaylorB120.000.08100.0076.590.000.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0857.1450.420.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0857.1429.790.00-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0887.5082.360.000.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0811.1148.19-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.08100.0078.850.000.05
SyracuseACC0.000.0871.4366.700.000.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.0875.0054.490.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0833.3339.61-0.00-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.390.080.0017.61-0.39-0.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0612.5023.75-0.00-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0024.64-0.00-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.000.0616.6749.65-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0616.6739.20-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0671.4355.160.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0662.5051.790.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0017.13-0.00-0.04
BradleyMVC0.000.0642.8627.96-0.00-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.450.0628.5733.77-0.19-0.02
DenverSum0.000.0642.8645.01-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0660.0067.760.000.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0671.4358.920.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0660.0058.590.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0675.0070.180.000.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.690.0675.0061.490.350.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0666.6757.300.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0642.8644.71-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.450.0675.0071.470.220.02
UMBCAE0.390.0680.0054.540.230.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.390.0642.8643.60-0.06-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0650.0030.350.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0633.3352.11-0.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0650.0071.020.000.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.0640.0058.82-0.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0562.5046.900.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0550.0041.990.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0550.0041.990.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0550.0050.450.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0571.4363.930.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0514.2931.35-0.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.0562.5066.900.000.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0585.7162.220.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0571.4356.250.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0571.4351.460.000.00
DetroitHorz0.000.050.0021.22-0.00-0.03
DrexelCAA0.000.0550.0040.600.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0550.0041.310.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0522.2226.33-0.00-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0550.0046.410.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0557.1442.530.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0525.0035.09-0.00-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0557.1453.990.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0550.0048.210.00-0.00
TCUB120.000.05100.0061.680.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0587.5062.040.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0542.8653.19-0.000.00
VCUA100.000.0575.0073.060.000.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0550.0071.070.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0550.0046.240.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0585.7157.450.000.01
BryantNEC0.390.0525.0047.82-0.20-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0512.5030.39-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0528.5731.44-0.00-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.0512.5029.71-0.00-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0550.0060.620.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.050.0039.53-0.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.390.0514.2943.58-0.28-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0516.6738.58-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0575.0064.920.000.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0512.5023.93-0.00-0.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0550.0038.050.00-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0542.8650.06-0.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0542.8638.17-0.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0350.0052.760.000.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0325.0048.10-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0383.3379.850.000.02
OregonP120.390.0375.0072.250.200.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0325.0022.93-0.00-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.390.0360.0069.120.080.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0333.3346.01-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0357.1448.500.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0357.1451.790.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.390.0312.5033.65-0.29-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0342.8639.20-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.390.0371.4373.040.170.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.450.0350.0056.740.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0314.2936.02-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0350.0041.540.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0371.4358.600.000.00
MercerSC0.000.0342.8647.76-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.000.0342.8646.14-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.000.0350.0054.070.000.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0328.5734.28-0.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0048.810.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.0371.4357.970.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.350.0375.0054.670.170.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0385.7170.060.000.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0350.0043.390.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.450.030.0033.85-0.45-0.01
USCP120.450.03100.0076.680.450.02
WyomingMWC0.000.0366.6754.050.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.0350.0043.560.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0350.0066.300.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.450.0342.8642.62-0.06-0.00
FloridaSEC0.450.0387.5075.240.330.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0091.920.000.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.450.0328.5736.95-0.19-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0322.2241.71-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.450.0366.6758.060.150.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.390.0371.4356.260.170.00
YaleIvy0.390.0342.8663.41-0.060.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0342.8661.11-0.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.0375.0068.370.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0385.7166.190.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0375.0066.370.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0333.3336.74-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.390.0375.0062.620.200.01
DuquesneA100.000.0344.4442.03-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0316.6730.34-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0333.3356.24-0.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0355.5641.690.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.000.0342.8651.95-0.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0325.0043.41-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.0387.5082.800.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0333.3348.07-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0371.4355.820.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.390.0342.8645.94-0.06-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0371.4354.860.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.390.0328.5732.62-0.17-0.01
MississippiSEC0.390.0375.0048.500.20-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0375.0070.620.000.01
NavyPat0.000.0325.0037.38-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0340.0041.93-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0350.0044.400.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.56-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0385.7177.150.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0314.2931.28-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0340.0041.12-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0325.0027.53-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0350.0059.920.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0322.2238.49-0.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0357.1467.260.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0362.5067.390.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0328.5723.12-0.00-0.01