live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Iowa

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:56.0
Current RPI:56
Expected SOS:37
Current SOS:37
Current Record:19-12
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:55
Expected OOC SOS:185



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1256.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Iowa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8UNC Wilmington (281.0)CAAH82-39W100%0.0
11-10Nebraska Omaha (219.0)SumH83-75W100%0.0
11-14Maryland Eastern Shore (347.0)MEACH109-63W100%0.0
11-22Penn (284.0)IvyH86-55W100%0.0
11-28Xavier (47.0)BEN77-74W100%0.0
11-29UTEP (103.0)CUSAN89-53W100%0.0
11-30Villanova (5.0)BEN88-83L0%0.0
12-3Notre Dame (136.0)ACCH98-93W100%0.0
12-7Drake (174.0)MVCN83-66W100%0.0
12-9Fairleigh Dickinson (269.0)NECH92-59W100%0.0
12-13Iowa St. (7.0)B12A85-82L0%0.0
12-22Arkansas Pine Bluff (264.0)SWACH86-61W100%0.0
12-31Nebraska (48.0)B10H67-57W100%0.0
1-5Wisconsin (6.0)B10A75-71L0%0.0
1-9Northwestern (123.0)B10H93-67W100%0.0
1-12Ohio St. (24.0)B10A74-84W100%0.0
1-19Minnesota (50.0)B10H94-73W100%0.0
1-22Michigan (11.0)B10A75-67L0%0.0
1-25Northwestern (123.0)B10A50-76W100%0.0
1-28Michigan St. (18.0)B10H69-71L0%0.0
2-1Illinois (70.0)B10A74-81W100%0.0
2-4Ohio St. (24.0)B10H69-76L0%0.0
2-8Michigan (11.0)B10H85-67W100%0.0
2-15Penn St. (114.0)B10A70-82W100%0.0
2-22Wisconsin (6.0)B10H74-79L0%0.0
2-25Minnesota (50.0)B10A95-89L0%0.0
2-27Indiana (102.0)B10A93-86L0%0.0
3-2Purdue (145.0)B10H83-76W100%0.0
3-6Michigan St. (18.0)B10A86-76L0%0.0
3-8Illinois (70.0)B10H63-66L0%0.0
3-13Northwestern (123.0)B10N62-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Iowa's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Iowa's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Iowa.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IowaB1026.2326.2358.5258.524.474.47
NorthwesternB105.505.5043.3343.33-0.73-0.73
Michigan St.B104.094.0975.0075.002.042.04
MichiganB104.044.0477.4277.422.212.21
MinnesotaB104.024.0260.0060.000.800.80
WisconsinB104.014.0177.4277.422.202.20
Ohio St.B103.993.9975.0075.002.002.00
IllinoisB103.943.9458.0658.060.640.64
PurdueB102.452.4548.3948.39-0.08-0.08
IndianaB102.452.4551.6151.610.080.08
Penn St.B102.402.4048.3948.39-0.08-0.08
NebraskaB102.402.4063.3363.330.640.64
VillanovaBE1.691.6987.1087.101.261.26
Nebraska OmahaSum1.691.6950.0050.000.000.00
Iowa St.B121.691.6978.1278.120.950.95
Notre DameACC1.691.6948.3948.39-0.05-0.05
PennIvy1.661.6629.6329.63-0.68-0.68
XavierBE1.661.6664.5264.520.480.48
DrakeMVC1.641.6448.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.641.6418.5218.52-1.03-1.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.641.6424.1424.14-0.85-0.85
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.611.6139.2939.29-0.35-0.35
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.611.6132.1432.14-0.58-0.58
UTEPCUSA1.611.6170.0070.000.650.65
MarquetteBE0.220.2253.1253.120.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
CreightonBE0.180.1878.7978.790.100.10
St. John'sBE0.170.1762.5062.500.040.04
DePaulBE0.170.1736.3636.36-0.05-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.160.1625.0025.00-0.08-0.08
ColumbiaIvy0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
IUPUISum0.160.1610.3410.34-0.13-0.13
Seton HallBE0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
DelawareCAA0.150.1573.5373.530.070.07
UICHorz0.150.1513.7913.79-0.11-0.11
GeorgetownBE0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
HofstraCAA0.140.1430.3030.30-0.05-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1378.5778.570.080.08
EvansvilleMVC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
BrownIvy0.130.1351.8551.850.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.130.1320.6920.69-0.08-0.08
BryantNEC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
ButlerBE0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.130.1384.3884.380.090.09
North CarolinaACC0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
KansasB120.120.1272.7372.730.060.06
Florida St.ACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.120.1236.3636.36-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
MissouriSEC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
StanfordP120.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
North FloridaASun0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.110.1125.9325.93-0.05-0.05
PrincetonIvy0.110.1170.3770.370.050.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
WagnerNEC0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
IPFWSum0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.110.1138.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1030.3030.30-0.04-0.04
BradleyMVC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
AuburnSEC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.100.1082.3582.350.060.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
OklahomaB120.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
TexasB120.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
DenverSum0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.080.083.703.70-0.08-0.08
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
TowsonCAA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
East CarolinaCUSA0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
UNLVMWC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
TennesseeSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
AmericanPat0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0753.5753.570.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
BaylorB120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
UCLAP120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
MarylandACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
OaklandHorz0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.060.0686.2186.210.040.04
HowardMEAC0.060.0619.3519.35-0.04-0.04
NJITind0.060.0636.0036.00-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.060.0651.8551.850.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0614.8114.81-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0616.1316.13-0.04-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
William & MaryCAA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
UABCUSA0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Miami FLACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Washington St.P120.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
LehighPat0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
USCP120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0594.1294.120.040.04
Green BayHorz0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
Holy CrossPat0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0514.8114.81-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0534.6234.62-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.2121.21-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
RutgersAmer0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
SMUAmer0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
AlbanyAE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
CampbellBSth0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0393.1093.100.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckySB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
AkronMAC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01