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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Iowa

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:28.0
Current RPI:28
Expected SOS:34
Current SOS:34
Current Record:21-10
Expected Record:21-10
Current Conf Record:12-7
Expected Conf Record:12-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:62
Expected OOC SOS:118



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1028.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Iowa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Gardner Webb (210.0)BSthH76-59W100%0.0
11-15Coppin St. (326.0)MEACH103-68W100%0.0
11-19Marquette (110.0)BEA61-89W100%0.0
11-26Dayton (21.0)A10N82-77L0%0.0
11-27Notre Dame (31.0)ACCN62-68L0%0.0
11-29Wichita St. (47.0)MVCN84-61W100%0.0
12-2Florida St. (82.0)ACCH78-75W100%0.0
12-5UMKC (286.0)WACH95-75W100%0.0
12-7Western Illinois (262.0)SumH90-56W100%0.0
12-10Iowa St. (23.0)B12A83-82L0%0.0
12-19Drake (325.0)MVCN70-64W100%0.0
12-22Tennessee Tech (134.0)OVCH85-63W100%0.0
12-29Michigan St. (12.0)B10H83-70W100%0.0
1-2Purdue (15.0)B10A63-70W100%0.0
1-5Nebraska (165.0)B10H77-66W100%0.0
1-14Michigan St. (12.0)B10A59-76W100%0.0
1-17Michigan (56.0)B10H82-71W100%0.0
1-21Rutgers (294.0)B10A76-90W100%0.0
1-24Purdue (15.0)B10H83-71W100%0.0
1-28Maryland (14.0)B10A74-68L0%0.0
1-31Northwestern (115.0)B10H85-71W100%0.0
2-3Penn St. (125.0)B10H73-49W100%0.0
2-7Illinois (149.0)B10A65-77W100%0.0
2-11Indiana (24.0)B10A85-78L0%0.0
2-14Minnesota (257.0)B10H75-71W100%0.0
2-17Penn St. (125.0)B10A79-75L0%0.0
2-24Wisconsin (43.0)B10H59-67L0%0.0
2-28Ohio St. (74.0)B10A68-64L0%0.0
3-1Indiana (24.0)B10H78-81L0%0.0
3-5Michigan (56.0)B10A61-71W100%0.0
3-10Illinois (149.0)B10N66-68L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Iowa's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Iowa's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Iowa.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IowaB1026.0826.0867.4167.419.089.08
IllinoisB103.923.9243.7543.75-0.49-0.49
MichiganB103.923.9267.7467.741.391.39
PurdueB103.913.9181.2581.252.452.45
Michigan St.B103.873.8790.6290.623.143.14
IndianaB103.843.8476.6776.672.052.05
Penn St.B103.813.8150.0050.000.000.00
WisconsinB102.362.3661.2961.290.530.53
NebraskaB102.332.3348.4848.48-0.07-0.07
MinnesotaB102.332.3326.6726.67-1.09-1.09
Ohio St.B102.332.3359.3859.380.440.44
MarylandB102.302.3074.1974.191.111.11
NorthwesternB102.252.2564.5264.520.650.65
RutgersB102.252.2520.0020.00-1.35-1.35
Notre DameACC1.741.7464.5264.520.500.50
DrakeMVC1.691.6920.6920.69-0.99-0.99
Iowa St.B121.691.6964.5264.520.490.49
Wichita St.MVC1.671.6776.6776.670.890.89
UMKCWAC1.671.6733.3333.33-0.56-0.56
Coppin St.MEAC1.641.6425.0025.00-0.82-0.82
Florida St.ACC1.641.6461.2961.290.370.37
MarquetteBE1.641.6462.5062.500.410.41
Western IllinoisSum1.641.6430.4330.43-0.64-0.64
DaytonA101.611.6177.4277.420.880.88
Gardner WebbBSth1.611.6148.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Tennessee TechOVC1.611.6162.9662.960.420.42
Chicago St.WAC0.240.243.453.45-0.22-0.22
CreightonBE0.210.2156.2556.250.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.200.2021.8821.88-0.11-0.11
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.190.1945.1645.16-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.180.1829.0329.03-0.07-0.07
South DakotaSum0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.160.1663.6463.640.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
St. John'sBE0.150.1522.5822.58-0.08-0.08
XavierBE0.150.1584.3884.380.100.10
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.150.1539.2939.29-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.140.1469.7069.700.060.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
IUPUISum0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
HowardMEAC0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
George WashingtonA100.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.130.1316.6716.67-0.09-0.09
ClemsonACC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.130.1384.3884.380.090.09
LouisvilleACC0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
DukeACC0.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
North CarolinaACC0.130.1382.3582.350.080.08
Virginia TechACC0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.120.1277.4277.420.070.07
Youngstown St.Horz0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
FloridaSEC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
IPFWSum0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.110.1110.7110.71-0.08-0.08
BradleyMVC0.110.1112.9012.90-0.08-0.08
EvansvilleMVC0.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1022.2222.22-0.06-0.06
RadfordBSth0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
VMISC0.100.1022.2222.22-0.06-0.06
Seton HallBE0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
DuquesneA100.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
SyracuseACC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
KansasB120.100.1087.8887.880.070.07
PittsburghACC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1024.2424.24-0.05-0.05
ButlerBE0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
CampbellBSth0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0857.6957.690.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
LibertyBSth0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0822.8622.86-0.04-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0879.4179.410.040.04
Saint LouisA100.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
ColoradoP120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
VCUA100.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
VirginiaACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
MissouriSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
VillanovaBE0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
DenverSum0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0672.4172.410.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0679.3179.310.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
SeattleWAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0618.5218.52-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0511.1111.11-0.04-0.04
High PointBSth0.050.0564.2964.290.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
WinthropBSth0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
FordhamA100.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
FurmanSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
LSUSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
TempleAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
BucknellPat0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
BryantNEC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
BinghamtonAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0556.0056.000.010.01
LehighPat0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0562.8662.860.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
VermontAE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
LipscombASun0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0335.2935.29-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
TulsaAmer0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
USCP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
UtahP120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
DavidsonA100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
George MasonA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Arizona St.P120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
MaineAE0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
MercerSC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
SamfordSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01