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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Utah

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:13.1
Current RPI:28
Expected SOS:31
Current SOS:46
Current Record:7-2
Expected Record:23-6
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:7-2
Expected OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC RPI:15
Expected OOC SOS:27



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-23.70.87%
26-35.25.29%
25-46.813.41%
24-59.321.52%
23-612.323.87%
22-715.918.69%
21-820.39.82%
20-925.84.39%
19-1034.21.60%
18-1143.60.46%
17-1262.20.04%
16-1374.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Utah.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Ball St. (228.5)MACH90-72W100%0.0
11-18San Diego St. (35.0)MWCA53-49L0%0.0
11-21UC Riverside (250.7)BWH88-42W100%0.0
11-26Texas Pan American (264.5)WACH85-48W100%0.0
11-28North Dakota (272.7)BSkyH90-53W100%0.0
11-29Alabama St. (228.8)SWACH93-62W100%0.0
12-3Wichita St. (17.4)MVCH69-68W100%0.0
12-10BYU (56.2)WCCA61-65W100%0.0
12-13Kansas (7.5)B12N63-60L0%0.0
12-20UNLV (134.4)MWCA0-086%12.9
12-23South Dakota St. (155.8)SumH0-097%22.5
1-2USC (189.1)P12H0-098%23.4
1-4UCLA (69.3)P12H0-088%13.6
1-7Colorado (66.2)P12H0-087%13.2
1-15Arizona St. (98.6)P12A0-069%5.7
1-17Arizona (16.5)P12A0-045%-1.6
1-21Washington St. (210.3)P12H0-098%24.9
1-25Washington (39.9)P12H0-084%11.7
1-29UCLA (69.3)P12A0-066%4.9
2-1USC (189.1)P12A0-089%14.7
2-7Colorado (66.2)P12A0-065%4.5
2-12Stanford (74.0)P12H0-089%14.2
2-15California (56.7)P12H0-087%13.2
2-19Oregon St. (131.4)P12A0-075%7.8
2-22Oregon (102.2)P12A0-069%6.0
2-26Arizona St. (98.6)P12H0-089%14.4
2-28Arizona (16.5)P12H0-073%7.1
3-5Washington St. (210.3)P12A0-092%16.2
3-7Washington (39.9)P12A0-060%3.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Utah's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Utah's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Utah.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UtahP1228.1926.2575.7680.7414.5216.14
ColoradoP120.004.2466.6760.870.000.92
ArizonaP120.284.20100.0083.300.282.80
UCLAP120.404.1772.7359.640.180.80
Arizona St.P120.004.1760.0056.070.000.51
WashingtonP120.284.17100.0074.950.282.08
Washington St.P120.004.1440.0030.56-0.00-1.61
USCP120.004.1460.0038.250.00-0.97
StanfordP120.002.6475.0059.170.000.48
OregonP120.002.5866.6759.000.000.46
CaliforniaP120.002.5890.0068.470.000.95
Oregon St.P120.002.5877.7856.530.000.34
San Diego St.MWC5.861.9966.6771.891.950.87
UNLVMWC0.001.9575.0052.030.000.08
North DakotaBSky6.371.8228.5733.98-2.73-0.58
UC RiversideBW5.561.8150.0044.700.00-0.19
Texas Pan AmericanWAC6.371.7942.8642.78-0.91-0.26
Alabama St.SWAC6.251.7940.0065.54-1.250.56
BYUWCC5.831.7875.0069.712.920.70
South Dakota St.Sum0.351.7562.5056.900.090.24
Ball St.MAC5.561.7533.3338.32-1.85-0.41
KansasB125.561.7587.5068.374.170.64
Wichita St.MVC5.561.72100.0088.605.561.33
Loyola MarymountWCC0.400.2625.0023.43-0.20-0.14
Long Beach St.BW0.590.2340.0050.07-0.120.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.2390.0090.940.000.19
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.310.2137.5064.43-0.080.06
WyomingMWC0.000.2077.7873.370.000.10
Utah St.MWC0.310.2055.5650.970.030.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.200.007.84-0.00-0.17
Grambling St.SWAC0.400.190.008.88-0.40-0.15
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.670.1810.0030.45-0.54-0.07
Portland St.BSky0.400.1850.0041.830.00-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.1857.1461.670.000.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.280.1720.0028.20-0.17-0.08
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1736.3638.88-0.00-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.000.1770.0058.600.000.03
UTEPCUSA0.000.1766.6772.670.000.08
OklahomaB120.000.1777.7867.290.000.06
IdahoBSky0.000.1537.5049.83-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.15100.0078.050.000.08
UC IrvineBW0.000.1537.5046.78-0.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.280.1454.5557.300.030.02
AlabamaSEC0.350.1466.6754.660.120.01
NevadaMWC0.000.1411.1125.02-0.00-0.07
Northern IowaMVC0.350.1390.0078.050.280.07
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1244.4455.75-0.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.1228.5757.26-0.000.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1237.5040.20-0.00-0.02
SeattleWAC0.000.1237.5046.50-0.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.350.1242.8637.65-0.05-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.1271.4361.370.000.03
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1250.0053.850.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.1260.0034.110.00-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.000.120.0011.40-0.00-0.09
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1233.3340.31-0.00-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.000.1214.2933.32-0.00-0.04
South DakotaSum0.000.1227.2738.97-0.00-0.03
UC DavisBW0.000.1285.7161.020.000.03
DrexelCAA0.000.1225.0037.13-0.00-0.03
PortlandWCC0.000.1266.6748.410.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.1222.2228.69-0.00-0.05
PacificWCC0.000.1250.0038.180.00-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1250.0040.880.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.350.1244.4448.88-0.04-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1266.6777.030.000.06
PepperdineWCC0.000.1275.0058.430.000.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.1175.0068.680.000.04
Fresno St.MWC0.000.1130.0029.80-0.00-0.05
TCUB120.000.11100.0066.180.000.04
TexasB120.000.1190.0081.860.000.07
Kansas St.B120.000.1160.0037.220.00-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.1010.0018.01-0.00-0.06
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1077.7871.110.000.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1020.0038.24-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.100.0028.26-0.00-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.460.1037.5031.95-0.12-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.350.1036.3664.92-0.090.03
DrakeMVC0.350.0920.0019.99-0.21-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0936.3644.53-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.400.0933.3332.85-0.13-0.03
Saint LouisA100.690.0960.0033.870.14-0.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0922.2241.92-0.00-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.350.0955.5656.400.040.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0950.0032.620.00-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.400.0942.8642.32-0.06-0.01
IUPUISum0.400.0920.0026.33-0.24-0.04
HawaiiBW0.310.0966.6754.830.100.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0944.4445.59-0.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0944.4436.35-0.00-0.02
DenverSum0.000.0950.0054.230.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0916.6727.56-0.00-0.04
ToledoMAC0.000.0960.0059.420.000.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0942.8638.75-0.00-0.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0925.0052.09-0.000.00
AkronMAC0.000.0960.0056.560.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0916.6726.28-0.00-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0920.0034.08-0.00-0.03
MarquetteBE0.000.0955.5647.870.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0988.8963.660.000.02
MichiganB100.000.0855.5642.550.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.310.08100.0094.790.310.07
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.070.0031.74-0.00-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0718.1844.62-0.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.070.0039.41-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.070.0033.84-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0711.1144.62-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0633.3332.09-0.00-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0666.6764.310.000.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0671.4359.920.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0660.0049.500.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0675.0067.580.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0675.0069.120.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0685.7170.350.000.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0671.4363.410.000.02
IPFWSum0.000.0657.1456.900.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0640.0050.78-0.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0662.5054.980.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0662.5059.510.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.0625.0042.64-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.350.0650.0074.000.000.03
Weber St.BSky0.310.0628.5742.17-0.13-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0671.4357.100.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.0677.7868.780.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0666.6742.100.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0690.9153.850.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0620.0029.81-0.00-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0633.3354.74-0.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0650.0049.620.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0687.5054.790.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0644.4457.85-0.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0663.6455.600.000.01
BaylorB120.000.0690.0073.870.000.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0657.1470.590.000.02
ColgatePat0.000.0620.0043.08-0.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0637.5050.40-0.000.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0685.7172.940.000.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0688.8963.800.000.02
LehighPat0.000.0637.5047.71-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.000.0690.9167.660.000.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0644.4431.58-0.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0637.5037.96-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.060.0018.94-0.00-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.0670.0071.630.000.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0630.0031.57-0.00-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0677.7865.390.000.02
Texas TechB120.000.0688.8955.910.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0630.0037.28-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0690.0066.940.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.460.0377.7871.960.260.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.460.0355.5638.600.05-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.0372.7351.560.000.00
DuquesneA100.000.0328.5731.23-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.350.0371.4348.860.15-0.00
LamarSlnd0.350.0314.2934.12-0.25-0.01
MemphisAmer0.350.0355.5659.990.040.01
Seton HallBE0.350.0390.0067.260.280.01
TulsaAmer0.350.0360.0056.800.070.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.400.0316.6719.68-0.26-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.400.0333.3338.99-0.13-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0375.0071.730.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0320.0039.70-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.400.0370.0060.790.160.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0320.0026.57-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0330.0028.50-0.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.350.0377.7864.730.190.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0318.1835.99-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0342.8638.11-0.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.400.0380.0069.620.240.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.310.0342.8638.26-0.04-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.310.0342.8655.64-0.040.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0360.0055.630.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0350.0039.340.00-0.01
PurdueB100.310.0372.7363.730.140.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0344.4449.65-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0333.3348.89-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.280.0377.7869.190.150.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0350.0057.510.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0014.79-0.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.030.007.39-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0340.0046.73-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.000.03100.0087.140.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.0372.7365.930.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0370.0052.610.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0318.1846.16-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.280.0366.6752.340.090.00
VCUA100.000.0370.0071.420.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.0377.7876.240.000.02
FloridaSEC0.310.0360.0064.930.060.01
GeorgetownBE0.310.0366.6759.460.100.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0336.3633.67-0.00-0.01
LafayettePat0.000.0375.0069.820.000.01
Michigan St.B100.310.0372.7373.150.140.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0327.2737.85-0.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.310.0362.5073.190.080.01
RiderMAAC0.310.0350.0052.800.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6757.800.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.310.0350.0046.150.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.0390.9188.390.000.02