live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Feb 26, 2017.


Utah

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:82.8
Current RPI:82
Expected SOS:92
Current SOS:100
Current Record:16-10
Expected Record:17-11
Current Conf Record:9-7
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC RPI:134
Expected OOC SOS:223



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1072.644.93%
17-1187.945.34%
16-12106.19.72%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Utah.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-18Coppin St. (329.3)MEACH94-51W100%0.0
11-25UC Riverside (329.2)BWH85-67W100%0.0
11-28Butler (9.0)BEH59-68L0%0.0
12-1Montana St. (238.7)BSkyH92-84W100%0.0
12-6Utah Valley (211.7)WACH87-80W100%0.0
12-10Xavier (30.9)BEA77-69L0%0.0
12-17Prairie View A&M (314.6)SWACH92-60W100%0.0
12-22San Francisco (86.3)WCCN86-89L0%0.0
12-23Hawaii (277.6)BWA52-66W100%0.0
12-25Stephen F. Austin (197.8)SlndN74-66W100%0.0
1-1Colorado (119.7)P12H76-60W100%0.0
1-5Arizona (8.0)P12A66-56L0%0.0
1-7Arizona St. (131.8)P12A82-88W100%0.0
1-12USC (41.8)P12H86-64W100%0.0
1-14UCLA (15.9)P12H82-83L0%0.0
1-18Washington St. (150.1)P12A47-88W100%0.0
1-21Washington (205.8)P12A72-94W100%0.0
1-26Oregon (7.5)P12H67-73L0%0.0
1-28Oregon St. (283.9)P12H86-78W100%0.0
2-2California (48.9)P12A77-75L0%0.0
2-4Stanford (77.8)P12A81-75L0%0.0
2-9Washington St. (150.1)P12H74-70W100%0.0
2-11Washington (205.8)P12H85-61W100%0.0
2-16Oregon (7.5)P12A79-61L0%0.0
2-19Oregon St. (283.9)P12A68-67L0%0.0
2-23Colorado (119.7)P12A81-86W100%0.0
3-2California (48.9)P12H0-058%2.2
3-4Stanford (77.8)P12H0-076%7.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Utah's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Utah's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Utah.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UtahP1226.2426.2761.4060.395.985.46
ColoradoP124.624.4457.6957.650.710.68
Oregon St.P124.564.3811.1110.82-3.55-3.43
CaliforniaP122.664.3566.6766.170.891.41
OregonP124.534.3585.1985.613.193.09
Washington St.P124.594.3548.0044.90-0.18-0.44
StanfordP122.664.3446.1545.67-0.20-0.38
WashingtonP124.524.2834.6232.91-1.39-1.46
UCLAP122.702.6589.2989.832.122.11
ArizonaP122.742.6586.2186.101.991.91
Arizona St.P122.712.6248.2847.24-0.09-0.14
USCP122.662.6275.0075.711.331.35
UC RiversideBW2.071.9125.0024.94-1.03-0.96
XavierBE2.061.9060.7161.380.440.43
Utah ValleyWAC2.031.8841.6743.16-0.34-0.26
ButlerBE2.021.8778.5778.641.161.07
HawaiiBW2.001.8552.0050.550.080.02
Montana St.BSky1.991.8550.0049.620.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.991.8530.7732.95-0.77-0.63
Coppin St.MEAC1.921.7926.9226.97-0.89-0.82
San FranciscoWCC1.921.7962.0762.070.460.43
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.921.7954.1755.540.160.20
Cal PolyBW0.290.2830.7732.97-0.11-0.10
Long Beach St.BW0.280.2837.9338.88-0.07-0.06
Seton HallBE0.210.2764.2962.630.060.07
MontanaBSky0.280.2548.2848.65-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.270.2427.5927.59-0.12-0.11
UC DavisBW0.190.2359.2658.390.030.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.220.2240.0041.36-0.04-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.180.2253.5755.070.010.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.250.2216.0016.70-0.17-0.15
BYUWCC0.240.2167.7467.740.090.08
Sacramento St.BSky0.240.2136.0035.08-0.07-0.06
CreightonBE0.240.2175.0074.570.120.10
GeorgetownBE0.230.2148.2847.22-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.220.1948.0048.50-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.180.1940.0039.27-0.04-0.04
IdahoBSky0.180.1852.0053.420.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.210.1850.0050.000.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.200.1896.6796.670.190.17
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.210.1866.6767.530.070.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.180.1667.8666.440.070.05
UTSACUSA0.180.1637.0436.94-0.05-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.110.1656.0057.060.010.02
New OrleansSlnd0.180.1658.3359.230.030.03
LamarSlnd0.170.1548.0049.70-0.01-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.140.1589.6689.660.110.12
Savannah St.MEAC0.170.1536.0035.98-0.05-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.1554.1752.440.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.170.1557.6957.830.030.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.140.1226.6727.00-0.07-0.06
Northern ColoradoBSky0.140.1228.0030.25-0.06-0.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.140.1223.0824.04-0.08-0.06
UNLVMWC0.140.1234.4833.87-0.04-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.100.1266.6765.560.030.04
Portland St.BSky0.140.1245.8345.20-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.130.1279.3179.090.080.07
TCUB120.140.1257.1456.900.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.100.1255.5656.670.010.02
DePaulBE0.100.1231.0330.04-0.04-0.05
MarquetteBE0.100.1260.7159.700.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.130.1262.0762.540.030.03
San DiegoWCC0.130.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.130.1244.8343.89-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.130.1290.0089.570.110.09
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.110.1072.0072.040.050.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1080.7781.310.070.06
Idaho St.BSky0.070.1014.8115.93-0.05-0.07
Delaware St.MEAC0.110.0925.0026.00-0.05-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0946.4345.93-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.100.0950.0049.050.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.0921.4322.28-0.06-0.05
PrincetonIvy0.070.0975.0075.780.040.05
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0934.4834.48-0.02-0.03
Kansas St.B120.110.0958.6257.980.020.01
KentuckySEC0.100.0982.7682.930.070.06
TroySB0.100.0951.8551.300.000.00
SMUAmer0.070.0986.2186.520.050.07
Northern ArizonaBSky0.100.0925.0025.07-0.05-0.05
ValparaisoHorz0.100.0976.6776.670.050.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0967.8668.870.020.03
BaylorB120.100.0978.5777.150.060.05
PacificWCC0.100.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.100.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.0960.7163.340.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.100.0944.4445.39-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.070.0955.5655.160.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.100.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.100.0953.5752.890.010.00
Chicago St.WAC0.080.0711.1111.53-0.06-0.05
DenverSum0.080.0755.1755.170.010.01
UMKCWAC0.080.0744.4445.62-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0725.9325.17-0.04-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.0730.4330.00-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.040.0730.4331.29-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.040.0756.0056.310.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0762.5062.610.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0625.9325.10-0.04-0.03
RiceCUSA0.070.0666.6765.550.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0639.1339.73-0.02-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0682.7682.760.050.04
Texas St.SB0.070.0656.0054.920.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0619.2322.18-0.04-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.040.0640.0041.67-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.040.0669.5767.060.010.02
KansasB120.040.0689.6688.490.030.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0655.1755.170.010.01
Miami FLACC0.040.0671.4369.290.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.040.0646.1546.81-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0648.0046.19-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0630.7730.93-0.03-0.02
South DakotaSum0.070.0665.5265.520.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0648.1547.90-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.070.0648.1548.55-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.070.0650.0052.370.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0653.5753.570.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.070.0633.3332.49-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.070.0657.1456.750.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.067.698.10-0.06-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.040.0626.9228.27-0.02-0.03
ArmyPat0.070.0637.9337.93-0.02-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.070.0665.3865.550.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0642.3142.27-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0648.1548.26-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0640.0042.28-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0636.0040.25-0.02-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.070.0657.1456.880.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0650.0049.680.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0617.2420.08-0.05-0.04
Notre DameACC0.070.0675.8674.710.040.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0644.8344.83-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.040.0646.1545.04-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.070.0650.0051.170.000.00
TexasB120.070.0634.4834.12-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.030.0667.8668.150.010.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0644.8345.81-0.01-0.00
WoffordSC0.070.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.070.0658.3360.030.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0686.2185.440.050.04
MissouriSEC0.070.0625.0025.17-0.03-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.040.0344.4445.15-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.040.0375.8673.450.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.040.0347.8349.16-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.040.0314.8114.81-0.03-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.040.0320.8321.37-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.040.0340.0038.77-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.040.0350.0052.300.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0332.0030.44-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.040.0382.7681.210.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.040.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.040.0378.5778.180.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.040.0360.7159.770.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.040.0351.8550.780.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.040.0344.4445.74-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.040.0319.2319.72-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.040.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.040.0318.5220.52-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.040.0326.6726.67-0.02-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.040.0357.6957.810.010.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.040.0333.3335.14-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.040.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.040.0351.6151.610.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.040.030.001.83-0.04-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.040.0376.0077.290.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.040.0365.2266.440.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.040.0311.1111.98-0.03-0.02
BucknellPat0.030.0374.1974.190.020.01
George MasonA100.040.0360.7159.910.010.01
HoustonAmer0.040.0371.4370.580.020.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.030.0355.1753.960.000.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0368.9767.270.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0355.1752.800.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
WisconsinB100.040.0375.8676.270.020.02
CornellIvy0.030.0323.0823.48-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.030.0351.8551.280.000.00
LehighPat0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0365.5265.140.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0362.0761.020.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0340.7439.61-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0355.1754.850.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0362.9662.960.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0355.1754.740.000.00
PurdueB100.030.0379.3178.860.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.01-0.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0325.9325.45-0.02-0.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0317.8618.08-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.030.0357.1455.730.000.00