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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Utah

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:83.0
Current RPI:83
Expected SOS:100
Current SOS:100
Current Record:18-11
Expected Record:18-11
Current Conf Record:11-8
Expected Conf Record:11-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-1
Current OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC RPI:144
Expected OOC SOS:250



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1183.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Utah.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-18Coppin St. (336.0)MEACH94-51W100%0.0
11-25UC Riverside (330.0)BWH85-67W100%0.0
11-28Butler (15.0)BEH59-68L0%0.0
12-1Montana St. (253.0)BSkyH92-84W100%0.0
12-6Utah Valley (206.0)WACH87-80W100%0.0
12-10Xavier (37.0)BEA77-69L0%0.0
12-17Prairie View A&M (307.0)SWACH92-60W100%0.0
12-22San Francisco (94.0)WCCN86-89L0%0.0
12-23Hawaii (300.0)BWA52-66W100%0.0
12-25Stephen F. Austin (202.0)SlndN74-66W100%0.0
1-1Colorado (99.0)P12H76-60W100%0.0
1-5Arizona (2.0)P12A66-56L0%0.0
1-7Arizona St. (125.0)P12A82-88W100%0.0
1-12USC (40.0)P12H86-64W100%0.0
1-14UCLA (16.0)P12H82-83L0%0.0
1-18Washington St. (159.0)P12A47-88W100%0.0
1-21Washington (211.0)P12A72-94W100%0.0
1-26Oregon (9.0)P12H67-73L0%0.0
1-28Oregon St. (280.0)P12H86-78W100%0.0
2-2California (53.0)P12A77-75L0%0.0
2-4Stanford (100.0)P12A81-75L0%0.0
2-9Washington St. (159.0)P12H74-70W100%0.0
2-11Washington (211.0)P12H85-61W100%0.0
2-16Oregon (9.0)P12A79-61L0%0.0
2-19Oregon St. (280.0)P12A68-67L0%0.0
2-23Colorado (99.0)P12A81-86W100%0.0
3-2California (53.0)P12H74-44W100%0.0
3-4Stanford (100.0)P12H67-59W100%0.0
3-9California (53.0)P12N75-78L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Utah's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Utah's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Utah.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UtahP1226.2926.2960.8060.805.685.68
CaliforniaP125.995.9963.3363.331.601.60
ColoradoP124.374.3760.0060.000.870.87
OregonP124.344.3483.8783.872.942.94
Oregon St.P124.314.3110.3410.34-3.42-3.42
Washington St.P124.234.2342.8642.86-0.60-0.60
StanfordP124.224.2242.8642.86-0.60-0.60
WashingtonP124.154.1531.0331.03-1.57-1.57
ArizonaP122.702.7087.8887.882.052.05
Arizona St.P122.652.6546.8846.88-0.17-0.17
UCLAP122.592.5987.5087.501.951.95
USCP122.592.5975.0075.001.301.30
XavierBE1.861.8660.6160.610.390.39
UC RiversideBW1.841.8423.0823.08-0.99-0.99
ButlerBE1.831.8373.3373.330.850.85
Utah ValleyWAC1.811.8144.4444.44-0.20-0.20
HawaiiBW1.791.7946.4346.43-0.13-0.13
Montana St.BSky1.781.7848.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.781.7836.6736.67-0.47-0.47
Coppin St.MEAC1.721.7224.1424.14-0.89-0.89
San FranciscoWCC1.721.7260.0060.000.340.34
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.721.7253.5753.570.120.12
Long Beach St.BW0.290.2940.6240.62-0.05-0.05
Cal PolyBW0.280.2831.0331.03-0.11-0.11
Seton HallBE0.270.2765.6265.620.080.08
UC IrvineBW0.260.2657.5857.580.040.04
UC DavisBW0.230.2362.5062.500.060.06
MontanaBSky0.230.2350.0050.000.000.00
PortlandWCC0.220.2229.0329.03-0.09-0.09
CreightonBE0.220.2272.7372.730.100.10
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.210.2135.7135.71-0.06-0.06
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.200.2018.5218.52-0.13-0.13
SeattleWAC0.200.2037.0437.04-0.05-0.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.200.2050.0050.000.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.200.2037.9337.93-0.05-0.05
BYUWCC0.200.2066.6766.670.070.07
GeorgetownBE0.190.1943.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.180.1851.7251.720.010.01
IdahoBSky0.170.1755.1755.170.020.02
LamarSlnd0.170.1751.7251.720.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.170.1796.9796.970.160.16
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.160.1664.5264.520.050.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.160.1651.7251.720.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.150.1568.9768.970.060.06
Weber St.BSky0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
UTSACUSA0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.140.1460.7160.710.030.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.140.1487.5087.500.110.11
Savannah St.MEAC0.140.1440.7440.74-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
DePaulBE0.130.1328.1228.12-0.06-0.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.120.1267.8667.860.040.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Louisiana MonroeSB0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Portland St.BSky0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
NevadaMWC0.110.1182.3582.350.070.07
TCUB120.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
UNLVMWC0.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.110.1178.5778.570.060.06
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
St. John'sBE0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.110.1191.1891.180.090.09
Louisiana TechCUSA0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
WyomingMWC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.090.0913.3313.33-0.06-0.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0983.3383.330.060.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0920.0020.00-0.05-0.05
TulsaAmer0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
TroySB0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
SMUAmer0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
PacificWCC0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
VirginiaACC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
BaylorB120.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
UMKCWAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0632.0032.00-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0636.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
RiceCUSA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0636.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
Texas St.SB0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.060.0661.5461.540.010.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.060.0687.5087.500.040.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Miami FLACC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0612.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ClemsonACC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
AlabamaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
ArmyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0329.4129.41-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
BucknellPat0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
George MasonA100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
CornellIvy0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
MichiganB100.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00