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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Utah

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:80.0
Current RPI:80
Expected SOS:95
Current SOS:95
Current Record:19-11
Expected Record:19-11
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:9-1
Expected OOC Record:9-1
Expected OOC RPI:113
Expected OOC SOS:341



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1180.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Utah.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15UC Davis (326.0)BWH94-60W100%0.0
11-21Grand Canyon (203.0)WACH79-54W100%0.0
11-22Lamar (344.0)SlndH84-57W100%0.0
11-23Savannah St. (273.0)MEACH71-57W100%0.0
11-27Ball St. (309.0)MACH88-69W100%0.0
12-3Boise St. (82.0)MWCA69-67L0%0.0
12-7Fresno St. (117.0)MWCH90-77W100%0.0
12-10Idaho St. (287.0)BSkyH74-66W100%0.0
12-14BYU (31.0)WCCH81-64W100%0.0
12-19Texas St. (307.0)SBH69-50W100%0.0
1-2Oregon (28.0)P12H68-70L0%0.0
1-4Oregon St. (100.0)P12H80-69W100%0.0
1-8Washington (104.0)P12A59-57L0%0.0
1-12Washington St. (224.0)P12A49-46L0%0.0
1-16USC (176.0)P12H84-66W100%0.0
1-18UCLA (14.0)P12H74-69W100%0.0
1-23Arizona St. (44.0)P12A79-75L0%0.0
1-26Arizona (2.0)P12A65-56L0%0.0
2-1Colorado (34.0)P12A79-75L0%0.0
2-6Washington (104.0)P12H78-69W100%0.0
2-8Washington St. (224.0)P12H81-63W100%0.0
2-13USC (176.0)P12A71-79W100%0.0
2-15UCLA (14.0)P12A80-66L0%0.0
2-19Arizona (2.0)P12H63-67L0%0.0
2-23Arizona St. (44.0)P12H86-63W100%0.0
3-1Colorado (34.0)P12H75-64W100%0.0
3-5California (63.0)P12A59-63W100%0.0
3-8Stanford (41.0)P12A61-60L0%0.0
3-12Washington (104.0)P12N67-61W100%0.0
3-13Arizona (2.0)P12N71-39L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Utah's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Utah's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Utah.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UtahP1226.3626.3660.9160.915.755.75
ArizonaP125.755.7587.1087.104.264.26
WashingtonP125.685.6855.1755.170.590.59
ColoradoP124.324.3268.7568.751.621.62
UCLAP124.134.1378.1278.122.322.32
Washington St.P124.084.0828.5728.57-1.75-1.75
Arizona St.P124.084.0866.6766.671.361.36
USCP124.054.0534.4834.48-1.26-1.26
StanfordP122.762.7662.5062.500.690.69
OregonP122.652.6570.9770.971.111.11
CaliforniaP122.622.6261.2961.290.590.59
Oregon St.P122.572.5753.3353.330.170.17
Idaho St.BSky1.801.8034.6234.62-0.55-0.55
LamarSlnd1.781.7811.1111.11-1.39-1.39
Fresno St.MWC1.741.7450.0050.000.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC1.731.7337.9337.93-0.42-0.42
Grand CanyonWAC1.721.7248.0048.00-0.07-0.07
Boise St.MWC1.721.7258.0658.060.280.28
BYUWCC1.721.7268.7568.750.640.64
UC DavisBW1.691.6925.0025.00-0.85-0.85
Ball St.MAC1.671.6711.1111.11-1.30-1.30
Texas St.SB1.671.6721.4321.43-0.95-0.95
UC IrvineBW0.270.2765.6265.620.080.08
Long Beach St.BW0.260.2643.3343.33-0.04-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.260.2638.7138.71-0.06-0.06
San Diego St.MWC0.260.2687.1087.100.190.19
Northern ArizonaBSky0.250.2545.1645.16-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.240.2446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.230.2360.6160.610.050.05
Air ForceMWC0.210.2135.7135.71-0.06-0.06
Cal PolyBW0.210.2136.6736.67-0.06-0.06
IdahoWAC0.210.2145.4545.45-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.200.2039.2939.29-0.04-0.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.180.1867.8667.860.060.06
New MexicoMWC0.160.1681.8281.820.100.10
Colorado St.MWC0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
WyomingMWC0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.140.1444.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.140.1453.5753.570.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.140.1473.5373.530.060.06
Arkansas St.SB0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.140.1460.7160.710.030.03
San Jose St.MWC0.130.1317.2417.24-0.09-0.09
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.130.1320.6920.69-0.08-0.08
San FranciscoWCC0.130.1363.3363.330.040.04
Boston CollegeACC0.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
GonzagaWCC0.130.1381.8281.820.080.08
Texas TechB120.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
DukeACC0.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
Portland St.BSky0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
ButlerBE0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
HawaiiBW0.110.1162.0762.070.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
PortlandWCC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
MichiganB100.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.090.0925.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0993.1093.100.080.08
North DakotaBSky0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.090.093.573.57-0.08-0.08
AkronMAC0.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0936.3636.36-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Miami FLACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
DaytonA100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
DePaulBE0.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
HartfordAE0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
IndianaB100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
BaylorB120.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
OaklandHorz0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0730.3030.30-0.03-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSlnd0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0634.6234.62-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckySB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
George MasonA100.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0683.8783.870.040.04
North FloridaASun0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
TCUB120.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
FurmanSC0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
FloridaSEC0.050.0594.1294.120.050.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.04-0.04
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
TexasB120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
XavierBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.8114.81-0.04-0.04
UMBCAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ElonSC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0586.2186.210.040.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MarylandACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
IllinoisB100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
BucknellPat0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03