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Through games of Feb 10, 2016.


Utah

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:26.8
Current RPI:15
Expected SOS:21
Current SOS:11
Current Record:17-7
Expected Record:21-9
Current Conf Record:7-5
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:9-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:21
Expected OOC SOS:56



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-711.62.86%
22-816.216.20%
21-921.732.21%
20-1029.331.00%
19-1141.814.86%
18-1255.12.66%
17-1366.20.20%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Utah.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Southern Utah (334.5)BSkyH82-71W100%0.0
11-16San Diego St. (54.0)MWCH81-76W100%0.0
11-19Texas Tech (57.6)B12N63-73W100%0.0
11-20Miami FL (11.0)ACCN66-90L0%0.0
11-22Temple (84.7)AmerN74-68W100%0.0
11-27Idaho St. (271.4)BSkyH102-72W100%0.0
12-2BYU (72.5)WCCH83-75W100%0.0
12-5IPFW (81.4)SumH96-79W100%0.0
12-12Wichita St. (35.6)MVCA67-50L0%0.0
12-16Savannah St. (328.2)MEACH99-53W100%0.0
12-19Duke (17.5)ACCN75-77W100%0.0
12-22Delaware St. (349.1)MEACH105-58W100%0.0
1-1Stanford (87.7)P12A70-68L0%0.0
1-3California (43.8)P12A71-58L0%0.0
1-8Colorado (44.8)P12A54-56W100%0.0
1-14Oregon (4.9)P12H59-77L0%0.0
1-17Oregon St. (57.0)P12H59-53W100%0.0
1-21Washington St. (184.5)P12A71-92W100%0.0
1-24Washington (65.9)P12A75-80W100%0.0
1-27California (43.8)P12H73-64W100%0.0
1-30Stanford (87.7)P12H96-74W100%0.0
2-4Oregon St. (57.0)P12A71-69L0%0.0
2-7Oregon (4.9)P12A76-66L0%0.0
2-10Washington (65.9)P12H90-82W100%0.0
2-14Washington St. (184.5)P12H0-090%14.2
2-18UCLA (70.2)P12A0-048%-0.7
2-21USC (21.0)P12A0-033%-4.9
2-25Arizona St. (79.5)P12H0-072%6.5
2-27Arizona (26.8)P12H0-044%-1.6
3-5Colorado (44.8)P12H0-068%5.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Utah's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Utah's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Utah.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UtahP1226.6026.2571.8867.8011.649.34
ColoradoP123.034.1572.7368.831.381.56
CaliforniaP124.704.1066.6763.711.571.12
OregonP124.604.1080.9577.772.852.28
Oregon St.P124.544.0663.1656.951.200.56
StanfordP124.634.0650.0046.260.00-0.30
Washington St.P122.274.0338.1033.99-0.54-1.29
WashingtonP124.264.0068.1864.401.551.15
USCP120.502.4878.2673.250.281.15
UCLAP120.462.4556.5253.300.060.16
ArizonaP120.652.4579.1779.080.381.43
Arizona St.P120.652.4554.1752.470.050.12
Idaho St.BSky2.181.7947.3747.82-0.11-0.08
Savannah St.MEAC2.221.7540.0039.21-0.44-0.38
Delaware St.MEAC2.181.739.5212.68-1.76-1.29
Southern UtahBSky2.141.7315.7915.91-1.46-1.18
BYUWCC2.131.7269.5771.880.830.75
San Diego St.MWC2.171.7272.7372.570.990.78
TempleAmer2.131.7066.6761.770.710.40
DukeACC2.131.6978.2674.191.200.82
Miami FLACC2.131.6981.8276.751.350.91
Wichita St.MVC2.081.6972.7375.880.950.88
IPFWSum2.081.6773.9171.041.000.70
Texas TechB122.081.6763.6457.210.570.24
UNLVMWC0.230.2552.1755.090.010.03
TexasB120.370.2366.6762.210.120.06
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.280.2242.8650.41-0.040.00
GonzagaWCC0.180.2278.2676.880.100.12
Northern ArizonaBSky0.150.2110.0013.14-0.12-0.15
Saint Mary'sWCC0.330.2085.7185.380.240.14
Long Beach St.BW0.220.1945.4551.39-0.020.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.160.1842.1145.67-0.02-0.02
IdahoBSky0.150.1854.5554.970.010.02
KansasB120.190.1782.6179.190.120.10
New MexicoMWC0.140.1758.3360.690.020.04
Fresno St.MWC0.230.1763.6461.640.060.04
Boise St.MWC0.140.1760.8760.530.030.04
Weber St.BSky0.200.1565.0069.230.060.06
Portland St.BSky0.100.1531.5837.72-0.04-0.04
MontanaBSky0.140.1557.8962.320.020.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.240.1533.3330.60-0.08-0.06
Northern ColoradoBSky0.200.1528.5727.00-0.09-0.07
HamptonMEAC0.090.1559.0961.310.020.03
TulsaAmer0.190.1466.6764.730.060.04
Northern IowaMVC0.140.1456.0055.420.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.230.1481.8283.030.150.10
Coppin St.MEAC0.140.1414.2920.65-0.10-0.08
BaylorB120.190.1473.9168.480.090.05
SMUAmer0.200.1486.9682.900.150.09
Utah St.MWC0.230.1447.6249.26-0.01-0.00
PortlandWCC0.140.1440.0038.51-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.180.1445.8339.35-0.01-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.230.1441.6739.46-0.04-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.050.1483.3378.400.030.08
VirginiaACC0.140.1483.3378.470.090.08
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.1252.1754.140.000.01
NevadaMWC0.190.1257.1455.290.030.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.190.1239.1338.56-0.04-0.03
RiceCUSA0.190.1128.5729.66-0.08-0.05
Colorado St.MWC0.140.1154.5552.540.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.1158.3358.480.010.02
OklahomaB120.090.1186.9682.580.070.07
PennIvy0.180.1138.8937.69-0.04-0.03
WyomingMWC0.140.1143.4842.47-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.1131.8229.13-0.02-0.05
Iowa St.B120.140.1170.8368.000.060.04
SeattleWAC0.180.1147.6245.00-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.1150.0049.050.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.090.1141.6739.91-0.01-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.0925.0025.09-0.05-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.150.0929.1733.11-0.06-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.0925.0033.20-0.05-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.100.0952.3854.070.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0940.9143.75-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.160.0947.3749.90-0.01-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0929.1733.74-0.02-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.150.0923.8126.56-0.08-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.150.0933.3334.95-0.05-0.03
IUPUISum0.100.0940.0039.76-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0954.1750.990.010.00
Arkansas St.SB0.140.0942.8639.23-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.140.0950.0054.190.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.100.0920.0019.76-0.06-0.05
ArkansasSEC0.150.0950.0053.000.000.01
VillanovaBE0.100.0987.5086.870.080.06
DenverSum0.100.0954.1751.780.010.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.140.0963.6462.150.040.02
ButlerBE0.140.0970.8368.990.060.03
BradleyMVC0.090.0912.0011.96-0.07-0.07
AlabamaSEC0.140.0960.8755.970.030.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0973.9174.700.040.04
Air ForceMWC0.050.0843.4837.81-0.01-0.02
NavyPat0.130.0864.0064.480.040.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0818.1821.12-0.06-0.05
San FranciscoWCC0.090.0854.5550.110.010.00
West VirginiaB120.090.0879.1778.060.050.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0831.8230.15-0.02-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.130.0834.7840.89-0.04-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.040.0830.0034.55-0.02-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.050.0869.5764.900.020.02
Notre DameACC0.090.0870.8367.820.040.03
PacificWCC0.090.0825.0028.89-0.04-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.090.0856.5257.280.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.040.0830.4331.21-0.02-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.040.0852.0048.860.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.040.0879.1776.070.030.04
RichmondA100.140.0856.5255.730.020.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.140.0845.0049.23-0.01-0.00
KentuckySEC0.040.0875.0072.630.020.04
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0880.0081.160.000.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.0652.0050.230.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.0631.8236.14-0.04-0.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0636.3638.93-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.0619.0525.90-0.06-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0643.4850.66-0.010.00
DartmouthIvy0.100.0631.5831.74-0.04-0.02
DePaulBE0.100.0633.3334.01-0.03-0.02
DrakeMVC0.090.0620.8323.19-0.05-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0675.0076.190.050.03
Green BayHorz0.100.0654.5556.010.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0650.0049.600.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.100.0660.8760.750.020.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0637.5037.41-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.100.0636.3636.20-0.03-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0673.0872.640.040.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0645.8343.68-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.090.0640.0038.97-0.02-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0633.3330.27-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.100.0630.0029.28-0.04-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.100.0614.2915.45-0.07-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0640.0042.85-0.02-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0682.6181.130.060.04
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0639.1341.11-0.02-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0623.8122.82-0.02-0.03
South DakotaSum0.090.0641.6741.24-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0645.4554.16-0.000.00
Texas St.SB0.050.0636.8437.57-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0652.1751.940.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.040.0627.7829.16-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.090.0690.4886.910.070.04
DelawareCAA0.090.0621.7423.32-0.05-0.03
NebraskaB100.090.0652.0050.780.000.00
IndianaB100.090.0679.1774.060.050.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.040.0617.3920.66-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.050.0639.1335.44-0.01-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0672.0071.540.040.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0673.9172.580.020.03
HoustonAmer0.050.0670.8367.980.020.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0658.3356.290.010.01
La SalleA100.090.0619.0520.33-0.06-0.03
MemphisAmer0.050.0658.3359.360.010.01
MinnesotaB100.090.0625.0027.23-0.05-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0643.4843.76-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0640.0045.48-0.02-0.01
OaklandHorz0.090.0668.0067.990.030.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0645.8342.32-0.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0650.0046.760.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.090.0672.7371.660.040.02
UCFAmer0.050.0650.0044.680.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.040.0568.0066.660.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0529.1726.73-0.04-0.03
ClemsonACC0.090.0558.3358.370.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.090.0554.1751.980.010.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0557.8961.760.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0572.7367.630.020.02
SyracuseACC0.090.0566.6762.560.030.01
DavidsonA100.090.0561.9058.060.020.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.090.0552.9452.060.010.00
YaleIvy0.040.0573.6874.680.020.03
CampbellBSth0.050.0328.5729.64-0.02-0.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0313.6413.63-0.04-0.02
IowaB100.050.0382.6180.520.030.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0334.7832.42-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0370.8368.100.020.01
JacksonvilleASun0.040.0350.0049.850.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.040.0334.7833.05-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.050.0370.8366.720.020.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0356.5262.820.010.01
StetsonASun0.040.0323.8127.73-0.02-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0345.8341.65-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.040.0327.2731.06-0.02-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.040.0331.8232.69-0.02-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0324.0025.67-0.02-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.040.0347.6249.35-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0363.6460.930.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0350.0051.910.000.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0366.6766.330.020.01
HarvardIvy0.040.0335.0038.52-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0384.2181.660.030.02
High PointBSth0.050.0355.0057.460.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.040.0320.0022.26-0.03-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0345.8346.63-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.050.0372.2274.680.020.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0383.3381.320.030.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0347.8350.01-0.000.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0336.0034.92-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.050.0362.5056.960.010.00
BryantNEC0.040.0325.0026.40-0.02-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.040.0356.5257.000.010.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0366.6767.710.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.0364.0062.040.000.01
ElonCAA0.040.0352.1750.420.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.040.0356.0052.840.010.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0350.0049.770.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0321.7423.40-0.00-0.01
LafayettePat0.000.0320.8321.68-0.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0364.0057.920.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0317.6529.03-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0317.6526.58-0.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0372.0069.150.000.01
SienaMAAC0.040.0364.0064.110.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0372.2275.620.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0075.330.000.01
VCUA100.040.0373.9174.060.020.01
XavierBE0.000.0387.5081.860.000.02