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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Utah

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:70.5
Current RPI:64
Expected SOS:56
Current SOS:55
Current Record:11-7
Expected Record:17-12
Current Conf Record:3-4
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:86
Expected OOC SOS:187



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-723.00.03%
21-828.40.65%
20-937.84.34%
19-1047.211.71%
18-1157.222.41%
17-1269.126.47%
16-1383.620.10%
15-14100.410.24%
14-15118.73.44%
13-16138.90.49%
12-17152.70.10%
11-18181.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Utah.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Prairie View A&M (267.9)SWACH83-62W100%0.0
11-13Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)SWACH91-51W100%0.0
11-16Missouri (44.8)SECH77-59W100%0.0
11-20Mississippi (116.1)SECN83-74W100%0.0
11-22UNLV (123.3)MWCN85-58L0%0.0
11-24Eastern Washington (192.1)BSkyH85-69W100%0.0
12-2Hawaii (162.9)BWH80-60W100%0.0
12-5Butler (37.3)BEA81-69L0%0.0
12-9Utah St. (167.7)MWCN77-67W100%0.0
12-16BYU (62.6)WCCA77-65L0%0.0
12-20Northwestern St. (337.9)SlndH84-62W100%0.0
12-29Oregon (67.0)P12A56-66W100%0.0
12-31Oregon St. (145.3)P12A64-66W100%0.0
1-4Arizona (15.5)P12H82-94L0%0.0
1-7Arizona St. (31.9)P12H77-80L0%0.0
1-11UCLA (63.0)P12A83-64L0%0.0
1-14USC (34.7)P12A84-67L0%0.0
1-18Washington (77.2)P12H70-62W100%0.0
1-21Washington St. (167.1)P12H0-081%9.9
1-25Arizona St. (31.9)P12A0-023%-8.2
1-27Arizona (15.5)P12A0-016%-10.8
2-2Colorado (85.4)P12A0-050%-0.1
2-8Stanford (89.4)P12H0-069%5.4
2-10California (190.5)P12H0-088%13.1
2-15Washington (77.2)P12A0-050%-0.0
2-17Washington St. (167.1)P12A0-062%3.5
2-22UCLA (63.0)P12H0-052%0.6
2-24USC (34.7)P12H0-046%-1.0
3-3Colorado (85.4)P12H0-071%6.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Utah's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Utah's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Utah.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UtahP1226.3226.2359.2157.204.853.77
ColoradoP120.494.2460.0054.750.100.40
WashingtonP122.994.1673.6863.951.421.16
ArizonaP123.074.1678.9578.101.782.34
USCP122.994.1370.0067.711.201.46
Arizona St.P122.994.1377.7875.251.662.08
UCLAP122.994.1363.1661.180.790.92
Washington St.P120.214.1350.0043.190.00-0.56
StanfordP120.422.6055.0051.010.040.05
OregonP123.202.6068.4265.951.180.83
CaliforniaP120.352.5736.8431.78-0.09-0.94
Oregon St.P123.132.5761.1152.560.690.13
UNLVMWC3.141.9272.2264.121.400.54
Prairie View A&MSWAC3.011.8722.2240.78-1.67-0.34
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.991.860.0011.01-2.99-1.45
Eastern WashingtonBSky2.921.8441.1847.68-0.52-0.09
Utah St.MWC2.991.8447.3747.07-0.16-0.11
MississippiSEC2.781.7855.5647.390.31-0.09
BYUWCC2.921.7880.0075.441.750.91
MissouriSEC2.781.7870.5965.381.140.55
HawaiiBW2.851.7573.3366.421.330.58
ButlerBE2.781.7265.0061.840.830.41
Northwestern St.Slnd2.781.727.6915.43-2.35-1.19
New MexicoMWC0.220.2545.0048.56-0.02-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.380.2340.0043.34-0.08-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.140.2358.8262.830.030.06
Texas A&MSEC0.360.2268.4263.980.130.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.280.2221.0544.26-0.16-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.210.2130.0039.93-0.08-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.280.2058.8263.210.050.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.140.1845.0049.27-0.01-0.00
UC DavisBW0.160.1858.8262.450.030.04
Colorado St.MWC0.310.1845.0041.34-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.220.1711.1115.30-0.17-0.12
Idaho St.BSky0.140.1743.7540.93-0.02-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.310.1730.0036.48-0.12-0.05
SeattleWAC0.150.1757.8954.500.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.220.1750.0048.740.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.070.1737.5031.76-0.02-0.06
St. John'sBE0.220.1747.3742.18-0.01-0.03
XavierBE0.140.1785.7180.080.100.10
VanderbiltSEC0.140.1736.8435.55-0.04-0.05
PacificWCC0.210.1745.0044.46-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.1556.2556.810.010.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.230.1570.5969.610.090.06
SMUAmer0.230.1570.0070.630.090.06
NevadaMWC0.160.1585.7182.070.110.09
Northern ColoradoBSky0.150.1458.8257.140.030.02
WyomingMWC0.220.1461.1156.830.050.02
PrincetonIvy0.290.1452.9460.270.020.03
KentuckySEC0.070.1473.6867.950.030.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.1490.4888.940.050.11
Boise St.MWC0.210.1478.9576.970.120.08
Fresno St.MWC0.140.1466.6763.420.050.04
KansasB120.140.1484.2179.740.100.08
AlabamaSEC0.140.1468.4258.990.050.03
GonzagaWCC0.140.1480.9583.260.090.09
Loyola MarymountWCC0.210.1427.7829.11-0.09-0.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.140.1416.6724.29-0.10-0.07
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.160.1217.6519.33-0.11-0.08
Cal PolyBW0.090.1223.5328.21-0.05-0.05
OklahomaB120.230.1277.7867.900.130.04
IdahoBSky0.080.1264.7166.850.020.04
Southern UtahBSky0.220.1237.5033.78-0.06-0.04
Kansas St.B120.070.1173.6862.720.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.300.1131.5832.72-0.11-0.04
MontanaBSky0.070.1170.5973.140.030.05
ArkansasSEC0.150.1168.4264.200.060.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.1150.0052.440.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.140.1129.4133.22-0.06-0.04
CreightonBE0.140.1175.0070.690.070.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.1172.2258.940.030.02
San DiegoWCC0.070.1163.1657.540.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.140.1111.7612.81-0.11-0.08
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.1110.5316.75-0.06-0.07
Alcorn St.SWAC0.150.1112.5025.47-0.11-0.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.1136.8444.12-0.02-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.1138.8943.43-0.02-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.140.1144.4450.31-0.020.00
ProvidenceBE0.140.1170.0060.460.050.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.130.1133.3332.96-0.04-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.150.1127.7840.97-0.06-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.180.1080.0078.860.110.06
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.170.1052.9455.040.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0917.6523.890.00-0.05
North DakotaBSky0.160.0929.4134.76-0.07-0.03
RiceCUSA0.250.0911.1117.69-0.19-0.06
TexasB120.170.0963.1657.620.040.01
South DakotaSum0.150.0973.6872.360.070.04
Weber St.BSky0.140.0956.2557.400.020.01
Georgia St.SB0.220.0966.6765.530.070.03
DenverSum0.000.0933.3336.470.00-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0972.2272.970.030.04
FloridaSEC0.150.0873.6871.550.070.04
AuburnSEC0.070.0889.4777.030.060.05
TennesseeSEC0.080.0872.2268.920.030.03
AkronMAC0.140.0847.0644.91-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.140.0852.6347.390.01-0.00
DePaulBE0.140.0842.1134.32-0.02-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.140.0816.6724.91-0.09-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.140.0872.2274.700.060.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.140.0883.3384.230.090.06
PurdueB100.140.0890.4888.380.110.06
Virginia TechACC0.140.0868.4257.780.050.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.100.0728.5731.27-0.04-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0737.5045.220.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.0750.0051.480.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.170.0643.7549.10-0.02-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.170.067.6923.28-0.15-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.150.0666.6766.010.050.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0616.6724.46-0.05-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.070.0650.0047.670.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0689.4785.520.050.04
DetroitHorz0.070.0621.0525.98-0.04-0.03
DrakeMVC0.000.0655.0049.070.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.070.0652.6343.120.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0647.6244.030.00-0.01
IUPUIHorz0.000.0627.7829.840.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.070.0617.6517.23-0.05-0.04
MercerSC0.000.0644.4454.890.000.01
MichiganB100.070.0675.0070.270.030.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0631.5830.000.00-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0650.0051.650.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0627.7831.67-0.03-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0633.3334.110.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.070.0650.0046.260.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.150.0666.6755.930.050.01
IllinoisB100.150.0647.3744.27-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.150.0644.4444.86-0.02-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0661.1153.160.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.070.0663.1663.180.020.01
Saint LouisA100.140.0647.3746.91-0.01-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.150.0661.1151.900.030.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.140.0621.0523.50-0.08-0.03
BelmontOVC0.070.0671.4374.650.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.070.0668.4254.090.020.00
Illinois St.MVC0.140.0647.3745.87-0.01-0.00
LehighPat0.070.0638.8944.75-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.070.0668.4260.530.020.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0625.0028.02-0.03-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0668.4257.770.030.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0680.9576.520.040.03
PepperdineWCC0.070.0610.5318.34-0.05-0.04
PortlandWCC0.070.0627.7827.30-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.070.0675.0067.890.030.02
UMBCAE0.070.0658.8258.360.010.01
VillanovaBE0.070.0694.7490.310.060.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.0352.9452.620.010.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.035.8819.370.00-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.037.6920.090.00-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0350.0054.850.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.0326.6729.04-0.05-0.01
DavidsonA100.090.0358.8261.440.020.01
HowardMEAC0.090.0310.5327.31-0.07-0.01
Miami FLACC0.090.0376.4769.020.050.01
TroySB0.090.0335.2942.76-0.03-0.00
Green BayHorz0.080.0325.0027.94-0.04-0.01
Iowa St.B120.080.0361.1147.260.02-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0370.0068.220.030.01
MaristMAAC0.070.0321.0521.99-0.04-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.080.0347.0641.45-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.070.0329.4138.15-0.03-0.01
North FloridaASun0.080.0331.5835.15-0.03-0.01
UCFAmer0.080.0368.4260.880.030.01
ValparaisoMVC0.070.0350.0051.360.000.00
VCUA100.000.0360.0059.690.000.01
WagnerNEC0.080.0364.7164.540.020.01
West VirginiaB120.080.0384.2178.170.050.02
Wichita St.Amer0.000.0378.9577.360.000.02
WoffordSC0.000.0368.7563.620.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.070.0361.1158.750.020.00
BradleyMVC0.070.0365.0057.870.020.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.039.5217.94-0.06-0.02
DuquesneA100.070.0370.0058.100.030.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0310.0019.62-0.06-0.02
FurmanSC0.070.0366.6768.500.020.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0370.0071.230.030.01
HoustonAmer0.070.0378.9572.990.040.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0383.3381.350.050.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0377.7871.650.040.01
MarylandB100.070.0370.0065.320.030.01
MassachusettsA100.070.0350.0046.780.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0323.5328.70-0.04-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0357.1453.220.010.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0380.0075.050.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0347.0652.51-0.000.00
OhioMAC0.070.0347.0648.44-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0368.4254.090.030.00
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0330.0032.53-0.03-0.01
SamfordSC0.070.0327.7832.66-0.03-0.01
TulsaAmer0.070.0355.0053.290.010.00
UABCUSA0.070.0361.1164.130.020.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0360.0062.030.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0342.8635.25-0.01-0.01