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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Utah

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:20.0
Current RPI:20
Expected SOS:36
Current SOS:36
Current Record:23-8
Expected Record:23-8
Current Conf Record:14-6
Expected Conf Record:14-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC RPI:22
Expected OOC SOS:54



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-820.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Utah.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Ball St. (284.0)MACH90-72W100%0.0
11-18San Diego St. (26.0)MWCA53-49L0%0.0
11-21UC Riverside (234.0)BWH88-42W100%0.0
11-26Texas Pan American (334.0)WACH85-48W100%0.0
11-28North Dakota (310.0)BSkyH90-53W100%0.0
11-29Alabama St. (258.0)SWACH93-62W100%0.0
12-3Wichita St. (17.0)MVCH69-68W100%0.0
12-10BYU (36.0)WCCA61-65W100%0.0
12-13Kansas (2.0)B12N63-60L0%0.0
12-20UNLV (114.0)MWCN46-59W100%0.0
12-23South Dakota St. (90.0)SumH80-66W100%0.0
1-2USC (207.0)P12H79-55W100%0.0
1-4UCLA (48.0)P12H71-39W100%0.0
1-7Colorado (116.0)P12H74-49W100%0.0
1-15Arizona St. (102.0)P12A59-76W100%0.0
1-17Arizona (5.0)P12A69-51L0%0.0
1-21Washington St. (169.0)P12H86-64W100%0.0
1-25Washington (126.0)P12H77-56W100%0.0
1-29UCLA (48.0)P12A69-59L0%0.0
2-1USC (207.0)P12A39-67W100%0.0
2-7Colorado (116.0)P12A51-79W100%0.0
2-12Stanford (59.0)P12H75-59W100%0.0
2-15California (95.0)P12H76-61W100%0.0
2-19Oregon St. (133.0)P12A37-47W100%0.0
2-22Oregon (27.0)P12A69-58L0%0.0
2-26Arizona St. (102.0)P12H83-41W100%0.0
2-28Arizona (5.0)P12H57-63L0%0.0
3-5Washington St. (169.0)P12A59-67W100%0.0
3-7Washington (126.0)P12A77-68L0%0.0
3-12Stanford (59.0)P12N80-56W100%0.0
3-13Oregon (27.0)P12N64-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Utah's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Utah's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Utah.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UtahP1226.2526.2575.1975.1913.2313.23
StanfordP124.114.1163.3363.331.091.09
OregonP124.114.1170.9770.971.721.72
ArizonaP124.104.1090.6290.623.333.33
UCLAP124.064.0661.2961.290.920.92
ColoradoP124.054.0550.0050.000.000.00
USCP124.034.0340.0040.00-0.81-0.81
WashingtonP124.004.0051.7251.720.140.14
Arizona St.P124.004.0056.6756.670.530.53
Washington St.P123.953.9544.8344.83-0.41-0.41
CaliforniaP122.542.5456.2556.250.320.32
Oregon St.P122.492.4955.1755.170.260.26
San Diego St.MWC1.871.8775.0075.000.930.93
UNLVMWC1.861.8654.8454.840.180.18
North DakotaBSky1.701.7022.2222.22-0.94-0.94
BYUWCC1.691.6974.1974.190.820.82
UC RiversideBW1.691.6942.8642.86-0.24-0.24
Texas Pan AmericanWAC1.671.6725.9325.93-0.80-0.80
Alabama St.SWAC1.671.6765.3865.380.510.51
South Dakota St.Sum1.641.6470.0070.000.660.66
KansasB121.641.6475.7675.760.840.84
Ball St.MAC1.641.6421.4321.43-0.94-0.94
Wichita St.MVC1.611.6190.0090.001.291.29
Loyola MarymountWCC0.260.2623.3323.33-0.14-0.14
GonzagaWCC0.220.2293.9493.940.200.20
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.210.2156.6756.670.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.210.2145.1645.16-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.200.2071.8871.880.090.09
Portland St.BSky0.180.1848.1548.15-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.180.1861.2961.290.040.04
San Jose St.MWC0.180.180.000.00-0.18-0.18
Utah St.MWC0.180.1856.6756.670.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.180.1822.5822.58-0.10-0.10
Grambling St.SWAC0.170.170.000.00-0.17-0.17
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.160.1636.6736.67-0.04-0.04
HawaiiBW0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.150.1524.1424.14-0.08-0.08
South DakotaSum0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.150.1568.7568.750.060.06
Air ForceMWC0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.150.1581.2581.250.090.09
NevadaMWC0.150.1524.1424.14-0.08-0.08
OklahomaB120.150.1568.7568.750.060.06
IdahoBSky0.130.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
DetroitHorz0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
TexasB120.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.120.1218.7518.75-0.07-0.07
UMKCWAC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.110.1117.2417.24-0.07-0.07
Northern ColoradoBSky0.110.1146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.110.1123.0823.08-0.06-0.06
UC DavisBW0.110.1179.3179.310.060.06
Idaho St.BSky0.110.1117.8617.86-0.07-0.07
North Dakota St.Sum0.110.1170.0070.000.040.04
Northern IowaMVC0.110.1190.9190.910.090.09
Montana St.BSky0.110.1120.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
ToledoMAC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
DenverSum0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
DrexelCAA0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Fresno St.MWC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.06-0.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
MontanaBSky0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
DrakeMVC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Saint LouisA100.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
RiceCUSA0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.080.0841.1841.18-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
KentuckySEC0.070.07100.00100.000.070.07
BaylorB120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Iowa St.B120.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0664.7164.710.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0671.4371.430.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0572.4172.410.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
IPFWSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0574.0774.070.020.02
LehighPat0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
LipscombASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Penn St.B100.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
VermontAE0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
WoffordSC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
TempleAmer0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
UABCUSA0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
VCUA100.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
TulsaAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
SyracuseACC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
WisconsinB100.020.0291.1891.180.020.02
FloridaSEC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
LafayettePat0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00