Utah

Conference:	P12
Expected RPI:	272.4
Current RPI:	263
Expected SOS:	62
Current SOS:	64
Current Record:	4-18
Expected Record:	4-25
Current Conf Record:	2-9
Expected Conf Record:	2-16
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-11
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	3-3
Current OOC Record:	2-9
Expected OOC Record:	2-9
Expected OOC RPI:	280
Expected OOC SOS:	79

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
8-21	214.0	0.01%
7-22	230.7	0.27%
6-23	247.9	3.71%
5-24	263.8	26.48%
4-25	277.2	69.53%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Utah.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-16	Boise St. (176.5)	MWC	A	80-59	L	0%	0.0
11-19	Montana St. (261.8)	BSky	H	64-70	L	0%	0.0
11-24	Harvard (36.7)	Ivy	N	47-75	L	0%	0.0
11-25	Massachusetts (76.4)	A10	N	89-75	L	0%	0.0
11-26	NC Asheville (115.4)	BSth	N	87-65	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Fresno St. (183.3)	WAC	A	82-52	L	0%	0.0
12-7	Cal St. Fullerton (167.7)	BW	H	50-81	L	0%	0.0
12-10	Brigham Young (44.9)	WCC	H	42-61	L	0%	0.0
12-16	Idaho St. (259.8)	BSky	H	71-59	W	100%	0.0
12-19	Portland (215.5)	WCC	H	72-67	W	100%	0.0
12-22	Weber St. (84.1)	BSky	A	80-51	L	0%	0.0
12-31	Colorado (75.2)	P12	A	73-33	L	0%	0.0
1-5	Washington St. (164.6)	P12	H	62-60	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Washington (69.1)	P12	H	53-57	L	0%	0.0
1-12	Stanford (89.9)	P12	A	68-65	L	0%	0.0
1-14	California (42.4)	P12	A	81-45	L	0%	0.0
1-19	Arizona (75.8)	P12	H	51-77	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Arizona St. (241.2)	P12	H	64-43	W	100%	0.0
1-26	UCLA (109.2)	P12	A	76-49	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Southern California (232.8)	P12	A	62-45	L	0%	0.0
2-2	Oregon (86.8)	P12	H	68-79	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Oregon St. (114.4)	P12	H	58-76	L	0%	0.0
2-9	Arizona St. (241.2)	P12	A	0-0		13%	-12.3
2-11	Arizona (75.8)	P12	A	0-0		1%	-25.6
2-18	Colorado (75.2)	P12	H	0-0		9%	-14.9
2-23	California (42.4)	P12	H	0-0		2%	-21.4
2-25	Stanford (89.9)	P12	H	0-0		5%	-17.7
3-1	Oregon St. (114.4)	P12	A	0-0		2%	-23.1
3-3	Oregon (86.8)	P12	A	0-0		3%	-20.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Utah's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Utah's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Utah.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Utah	P12	26.13	26.26	12.00	10.38	-19.86	-20.81
Colorado	P12	2.82	4.28	65.00	60.11	0.85	0.86
Oregon	P12	2.87	4.26	68.18	62.12	1.04	1.03
California	P12	2.83	4.24	73.91	72.94	1.35	1.94
Stanford	P12	2.82	4.23	68.18	66.22	1.03	1.37
Arizona St.	P12	2.88	4.20	31.82	30.57	-1.05	-1.63
Oregon St.	P12	2.77	4.20	61.90	60.49	0.66	0.88
Arizona	P12	2.77	4.15	65.22	66.42	0.84	1.36
Washington	P12	2.82	2.56	68.18	65.38	1.03	0.79
Washington St.	P12	2.82	2.56	52.38	49.89	0.13	-0.01
Southern California	P12	2.77	2.53	21.74	22.64	-1.57	-1.38
UCLA	P12	2.77	2.53	52.38	55.30	0.13	0.27
Fresno St.	WAC	2.58	2.02	36.36	42.61	-0.70	-0.30
Montana St.	BSky	2.49	1.94	42.11	39.43	-0.39	-0.41
Weber St.	BSky	2.53	1.94	78.95	75.92	1.47	1.00
Idaho St.	BSky	2.55	1.89	35.00	35.14	-0.77	-0.56
Brigham Young	WCC	2.43	1.88	73.91	75.15	1.16	0.94
Portland	WCC	2.48	1.87	22.73	22.51	-1.35	-1.03
Boise St.	MWC	2.48	1.84	40.00	38.95	-0.50	-0.41
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	2.27	1.76	63.16	65.42	0.60	0.54
Harvard	Ivy	2.27	1.72	90.00	87.47	1.82	1.29
Massachusetts	A10	2.27	1.72	72.73	67.50	1.03	0.60
NC Asheville	BSth	2.27	1.72	66.67	66.39	0.76	0.57
Portland St.	BSky	0.44	0.34	42.86	45.80	-0.06	-0.03
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.38	0.34	40.91	44.03	-0.07	-0.04
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.31	0.34	13.64	16.14	-0.23	-0.23
Montana	BSky	0.27	0.28	70.00	73.28	0.11	0.13
Pepperdine	WCC	0.31	0.27	31.82	33.83	-0.11	-0.09
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.36	0.24	59.09	57.76	0.07	0.04
New Mexico	MWC	0.31	0.24	81.82	81.03	0.20	0.15
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.28	0.22	30.00	33.20	-0.11	-0.08
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.28	0.22	47.83	47.87	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.31	0.21	47.62	51.08	-0.01	0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.31	0.21	55.56	58.01	0.03	0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.25	0.21	81.82	81.49	0.16	0.13
Nevada	WAC	0.24	0.20	80.95	76.42	0.15	0.11
San Diego St.	MWC	0.20	0.20	85.71	78.05	0.14	0.11
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.22	0.19	30.00	31.54	-0.09	-0.07
Wyoming	MWC	0.22	0.18	76.19	70.73	0.11	0.08
UC Irvine	BW	0.21	0.18	35.00	35.26	-0.06	-0.05
Pacific	BW	0.16	0.18	35.00	37.47	-0.05	-0.05
Colorado St.	MWC	0.16	0.18	66.67	60.80	0.05	0.04
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.21	0.18	21.05	22.46	-0.12	-0.10
San Jose St.	WAC	0.21	0.18	27.27	26.95	-0.10	-0.08
San Diego	WCC	0.19	0.18	33.33	33.82	-0.06	-0.06
Seattle	ind	0.21	0.18	23.53	33.28	-0.11	-0.06
UC Riverside	BW	0.21	0.15	42.86	39.66	-0.03	-0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.20	0.15	90.91	87.74	0.16	0.12
Utah St.	WAC	0.26	0.15	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.20	0.15	28.57	26.30	-0.08	-0.07
UC Davis	BW	0.16	0.15	0.00	5.37	-0.16	-0.13
Georgia	SEC	0.15	0.15	45.45	41.20	-0.01	-0.03
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.15	0.15	82.61	81.44	0.10	0.09
Air Force	MWC	0.11	0.12	47.37	42.16	-0.01	-0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.15	0.12	56.52	53.77	0.02	0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.21	0.12	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.10	0.12	69.57	65.87	0.04	0.04
George Washington	A10	0.15	0.11	34.78	32.08	-0.05	-0.04
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.10	0.11	69.57	68.90	0.04	0.04
Long Beach St.	BW	0.11	0.09	71.43	73.35	0.05	0.04
Wichita St.	MVC	0.11	0.09	82.61	80.42	0.07	0.06
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.10	0.09	70.83	64.42	0.04	0.03
Texas Christian	MWC	0.10	0.09	57.14	49.54	0.01	-0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.15	0.09	36.36	39.72	-0.04	-0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.15	0.09	77.27	77.67	0.08	0.05
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.09	54.55	56.84	0.00	0.01
Texas	B12	0.10	0.09	60.87	61.37	0.02	0.02
Towson	CAA	0.10	0.09	4.00	5.26	-0.09	-0.08
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.09	35.00	40.78	-0.03	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.10	0.09	62.50	62.49	0.03	0.02
Denver	SB	0.10	0.09	70.83	72.23	0.04	0.04
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.09	61.90	63.52	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.10	0.09	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.10	0.08	59.09	56.35	0.02	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.08	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.10	0.06	56.00	55.65	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.05	0.06	72.22	71.97	0.02	0.03
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.06	34.78	38.77	-0.02	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.10	0.06	31.82	32.75	-0.04	-0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.10	0.06	27.27	27.21	-0.05	-0.03
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.06	8.70	13.10	-0.04	-0.05
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.10	0.06	45.00	44.15	-0.01	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.06	34.78	34.61	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.06	81.82	77.20	0.03	0.03
Connecticut	BE	0.11	0.06	68.18	63.99	0.04	0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.06	59.09	50.82	0.01	0.00
North Dakota	GWC	0.11	0.06	33.33	41.31	-0.04	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.06	31.82	42.13	-0.02	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.06	40.91	42.96	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.10	0.06	58.33	59.98	0.02	0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.11	0.06	25.00	28.52	-0.05	-0.03
Oklahoma	B12	0.11	0.06	59.09	54.70	0.02	0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.10	0.06	66.67	69.69	0.03	0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.06	27.27	23.80	-0.02	-0.03
Chicago St.	GWC	0.05	0.06	4.76	9.95	-0.05	-0.05
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.06	55.00	54.80	0.01	0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.06	36.84	41.45	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.11	0.06	14.29	17.17	-0.08	-0.04
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.06	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.06	18.18	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.06	30.00	30.06	-0.02	-0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.00	0.06	47.37	52.87	-0.00	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.06	72.22	63.19	0.02	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.10	0.06	30.43	26.44	-0.04	-0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.10	0.06	72.73	71.71	0.05	0.03
Fordham	A10	0.10	0.06	40.91	34.50	-0.02	-0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.06	38.10	42.78	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.06	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.06	27.78	29.87	-0.02	-0.02
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.06	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.06	54.55	54.30	0.00	0.00
Hawaii	WAC	0.05	0.06	57.14	53.12	0.01	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.06	70.83	68.82	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.06	42.86	43.45	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.06	38.89	43.93	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.06	45.45	40.70	-0.00	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.06	20.83	20.60	-0.03	-0.03
Richmond	A10	0.10	0.06	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.06	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.06	85.71	82.18	0.04	0.04
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.06	47.06	50.75	-0.00	0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.06	95.83	92.01	0.05	0.05
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.06	43.48	43.31	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.06	60.87	59.05	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.06	81.82	76.80	0.03	0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.06	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.10	0.06	78.26	78.39	0.06	0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.06	33.33	35.97	-0.02	-0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.06	55.00	57.41	0.00	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.06	8.33	10.86	-0.04	-0.04
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.06	82.61	77.63	0.03	0.03
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.06	19.05	25.52	-0.03	-0.03
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.06	41.18	42.61	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.06	78.26	72.34	0.03	0.02
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.06	91.30	87.18	0.04	0.04
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.06	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.06	65.22	63.61	0.01	0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.03	34.78	38.42	-0.02	-0.01
Southern Utah	Sum	0.06	0.03	45.45	44.30	-0.01	-0.00
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.00	0.03	76.19	75.94	0.00	0.02
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.03	55.00	60.33	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.03	54.17	54.75	0.00	0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.03	25.00	23.75	-0.03	-0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.96	83.16	0.04	0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.03	40.91	43.66	-0.01	-0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.03	26.32	29.71	-0.03	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.09	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	44.66	-0.00	-0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.03	34.78	37.24	-0.02	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.03	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	56.52	54.22	0.01	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.03	54.17	49.44	0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.57	0.05	0.03
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	59.09	57.28	0.01	0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.03	5.26	7.30	-0.05	-0.03
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.03	90.91	83.85	0.04	0.02
Boston University	AE	0.05	0.03	48.00	51.88	-0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.03	68.42	66.45	0.02	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.03	71.43	66.60	0.02	0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.03	15.00	15.73	-0.04	-0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.03	40.91	42.05	-0.01	-0.00
Longwood	ind	0.05	0.03	30.00	27.84	-0.02	-0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.05	0.03	28.00	28.91	-0.02	-0.01
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.03	60.00	62.49	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.03	75.00	73.97	0.02	0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	45.70	-0.00	-0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.03	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.03	76.19	76.76	0.03	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.00	0.03	60.87	60.96	0.00	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.36	83.09	0.04	0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.03	44.44	41.71	-0.01	-0.00
Elon	SC	0.05	0.03	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	62.50	62.06	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.03	68.00	69.07	0.02	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.03	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.03	65.00	60.02	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.03	72.73	66.81	0.02	0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.03	83.33	84.76	0.03	0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.03	33.33	38.38	-0.02	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.03	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	57.15	0.01	0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.03	45.45	45.55	-0.00	-0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.03	73.91	75.49	0.02	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.03	38.10	37.86	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.00	0.03	60.00	59.06	0.00	0.01
Temple	A10	0.00	0.03	77.27	75.06	0.00	0.01
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.05	0.03	57.14	60.75	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.00	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.00	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.03	69.57	61.31	0.02	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	25.00	37.58	-0.02	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.03	40.91	39.56	-0.01	-0.01