Utah

Conference:	P12
Expected RPI:	161.0
Current RPI:	161
Expected SOS:	67
Current SOS:	67
Current Record:	13-18
Expected Record:	13-18
Current Conf Record:	7-14
Expected Conf Record:	7-14
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-3
Current OOC Record:	6-4
Expected OOC Record:	6-4
Expected OOC RPI:	216
Expected OOC SOS:	272

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-18	161.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Utah.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-16	Sacramento St. (283.0)	BSky	H	71-74	L	0%
11-21	Idaho St. (337.0)	BSky	H	57-46	W	100%
11-23	Central Michigan (268.0)	MAC	H	67-51	W	100%
11-24	Wright St. (129.0)	Horz	H	66-54	W	100%
11-28	Southern Methodist (219.0)	CUSA	A	62-55	L	0%
11-30	Texas St. (272.0)	WAC	A	69-74	W	100%
12-5	Boise St. (45.0)	MWC	H	76-55	W	100%
12-8	Brigham Young (69.0)	WCC	A	61-58	L	0%
12-18	Southern Methodist (219.0)	CUSA	H	62-53	W	100%
12-21	Cal St. Northridge (254.0)	BW	H	71-76	L	0%
1-2	Arizona St. (90.0)	P12	A	55-54	L	0%
1-5	Arizona (16.0)	P12	A	60-57	L	0%
1-10	UCLA (26.0)	P12	H	53-57	L	0%
1-12	Southern California (118.0)	P12	H	59-76	L	0%
1-16	Washington St. (196.0)	P12	A	75-65	L	0%
1-19	Washington (88.0)	P12	A	65-74	W	100%
1-24	California (54.0)	P12	H	57-62	L	0%
1-27	Stanford (77.0)	P12	H	56-87	L	0%
2-2	Colorado (38.0)	P12	H	58-55	W	100%
2-6	Oregon St. (181.0)	P12	A	82-64	L	0%
2-9	Oregon (48.0)	P12	A	73-64	L	0%
2-13	Arizona St. (90.0)	P12	H	60-55	W	100%
2-17	Arizona (16.0)	P12	H	64-68	L	0%
2-21	Colorado (38.0)	P12	A	60-50	L	0%
2-28	California (54.0)	P12	A	64-46	L	0%
3-3	Stanford (77.0)	P12	A	84-66	L	0%
3-7	Oregon St. (181.0)	P12	H	72-61	W	100%
3-9	Oregon (48.0)	P12	H	72-62	W	100%
3-13	Southern California (118.0)	P12	N	66-69	W	100%
3-14	California (54.0)	P12	N	69-79	W	100%
3-15	Oregon (48.0)	P12	N	64-45	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Utah's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Utah's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Utah.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Utah	P12	26.44	26.44	37.78	37.78	-6.46	-6.46
Oregon	P12	5.65	5.65	77.42	77.42	3.10	3.10
California	P12	5.58	5.58	64.29	64.29	1.59	1.59
Colorado	P12	4.15	4.15	66.67	66.67	1.38	1.38
Stanford	P12	4.07	4.07	53.33	53.33	0.27	0.27
Arizona St.	P12	4.06	4.06	64.52	64.52	1.18	1.18
Oregon St.	P12	4.05	4.05	43.33	43.33	-0.54	-0.54
Southern California	P12	4.00	4.00	43.33	43.33	-0.53	-0.53
Arizona	P12	4.00	4.00	76.67	76.67	2.13	2.13
Southern Methodist	CUSA	3.25	3.25	44.83	44.83	-0.34	-0.34
UCLA	P12	2.64	2.64	72.73	72.73	1.20	1.20
Washington	P12	2.53	2.53	56.25	56.25	0.32	0.32
Washington St.	P12	2.48	2.48	38.71	38.71	-0.56	-0.56
Idaho St.	BSky	1.82	1.82	17.86	17.86	-1.17	-1.17
Sacramento St.	BSky	1.72	1.72	42.31	42.31	-0.26	-0.26
Cal St. Northridge	BW	1.71	1.71	39.29	39.29	-0.37	-0.37
Texas St.	WAC	1.69	1.69	34.38	34.38	-0.53	-0.53
Central Michigan	MAC	1.69	1.69	34.48	34.48	-0.52	-0.52
Wright St.	Horz	1.67	1.67	64.52	64.52	0.48	0.48
Brigham Young	WCC	1.64	1.64	63.33	63.33	0.44	0.44
Boise St.	MWC	1.61	1.61	67.86	67.86	0.58	0.58
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.31	0.31	34.38	34.38	-0.10	-0.10
Portland St.	BSky	0.24	0.24	23.08	23.08	-0.13	-0.13
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.23	0.23	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Pepperdine	WCC	0.21	0.21	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
San Diego St.	MWC	0.21	0.21	66.67	66.67	0.07	0.07
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.20	0.20	72.73	72.73	0.09	0.09
Denver	WAC	0.20	0.20	70.00	70.00	0.08	0.08
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.19	0.19	31.03	31.03	-0.07	-0.07
Long Beach St.	BW	0.18	0.18	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.18	0.18	24.14	24.14	-0.09	-0.09
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.17	0.17	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.17	0.17	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
Montana St.	BSky	0.17	0.17	39.29	39.29	-0.04	-0.04
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.16	0.16	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Wyoming	MWC	0.16	0.16	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.16	0.16	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Fresno St.	MWC	0.15	0.15	32.14	32.14	-0.06	-0.06
Idaho	WAC	0.15	0.15	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Creighton	MVC	0.15	0.15	79.41	79.41	0.09	0.09
Nevada	MWC	0.15	0.15	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Nebraska	B10	0.15	0.15	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.15	0.15	31.25	31.25	-0.05	-0.05
Southern Utah	BSky	0.14	0.14	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
Montana	BSky	0.14	0.14	79.31	79.31	0.08	0.08
Weber St.	BSky	0.14	0.14	80.00	80.00	0.08	0.08
UC Davis	BW	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Pacific	BW	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Tulsa	CUSA	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.13	0.13	74.19	74.19	0.06	0.06
UC Riverside	BW	0.13	0.13	14.29	14.29	-0.09	-0.09
UC Irvine	BW	0.13	0.13	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.13	0.13	31.25	31.25	-0.05	-0.05
Kansas	B12	0.13	0.13	85.29	85.29	0.09	0.09
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.12	0.12	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
North Dakota	BSky	0.12	0.12	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.12	0.12	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.11	0.11	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.11	0.11	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.11	0.11	85.29	85.29	0.07	0.07
Portland	WCC	0.11	0.11	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Houston	CUSA	0.10	0.10	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.10	0.10	13.79	13.79	-0.08	-0.08
Tulane	CUSA	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.10	0.10	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.10	0.10	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.10	0.10	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	28.12	28.12	-0.04	-0.04
San Francisco	WCC	0.10	0.10	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	22.58	22.58	-0.05	-0.05
Hartford	AE	0.10	0.10	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.10	0.10	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Texas	B12	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Buffalo	MAC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
San Jose St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.08	0.08	13.79	13.79	-0.06	-0.06
Drake	MVC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.08	0.08	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.08	0.08	93.75	93.75	0.07	0.07
Hofstra	CAA	0.08	0.08	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Valparaiso	Horz	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Northwestern	B10	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.07	0.07	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri	SEC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.07	0.07	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Hawaii	BW	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.05	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.05	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.05	81.25	81.25	0.03	0.03
Texas Christian	B12	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	-0.05	-0.05
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.05	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
New Orleans	ind	0.03	0.03	18.18	18.18	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.03	0.03	35.71	35.71	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Albany	AE	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.02	0.02	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.02	0.02	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.02	0.02	58.82	58.82	0.00	0.00