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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Utah

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:8.0
Current RPI:8
Expected SOS:7
Current SOS:7
Current Record:25-8
Expected Record:25-8
Current Conf Record:15-6
Expected Conf Record:15-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:9-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:10
Expected OOC SOS:22



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-88.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Utah.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Southern Utah (336.0)BSkyH82-71W100%0.0
11-16San Diego St. (41.0)MWCH81-76W100%0.0
11-19Texas Tech (36.0)B12N63-73W100%0.0
11-20Miami FL (9.0)ACCN66-90L0%0.0
11-22Temple (60.0)AmerN74-68W100%0.0
11-27Idaho St. (256.0)BSkyH102-72W100%0.0
12-2BYU (76.0)WCCH83-75W100%0.0
12-5IPFW (71.0)SumH96-79W100%0.0
12-12Wichita St. (47.0)MVCA67-50L0%0.0
12-16Savannah St. (277.0)MEACH99-53W100%0.0
12-19Duke (20.0)ACCN75-77W100%0.0
12-22Delaware St. (345.0)MEACH105-58W100%0.0
1-1Stanford (86.0)P12A70-68L0%0.0
1-3California (16.0)P12A71-58L0%0.0
1-8Colorado (35.0)P12A54-56W100%0.0
1-14Oregon (2.0)P12H59-77L0%0.0
1-17Oregon St. (33.0)P12H59-53W100%0.0
1-21Washington St. (212.0)P12A71-92W100%0.0
1-24Washington (83.0)P12A75-80W100%0.0
1-27California (16.0)P12H73-64W100%0.0
1-30Stanford (86.0)P12H96-74W100%0.0
2-4Oregon St. (33.0)P12A71-69L0%0.0
2-7Oregon (2.0)P12A76-66L0%0.0
2-10Washington (83.0)P12H90-82W100%0.0
2-14Washington St. (212.0)P12H88-47W100%0.0
2-18UCLA (102.0)P12A73-75W100%0.0
2-21USC (51.0)P12A69-80W100%0.0
2-25Arizona St. (99.0)P12H81-46W100%0.0
2-27Arizona (26.0)P12H70-64W100%0.0
3-5Colorado (35.0)P12H57-55W100%0.0
3-10USC (51.0)P12N80-72W100%0.0
3-11California (16.0)P12N82-78W100%0.0
3-12Oregon (2.0)P12N88-57L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Utah's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Utah's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Utah.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UtahP1226.3726.3776.6476.6414.0514.05
OregonP125.365.3680.0080.003.223.22
CaliforniaP125.325.3273.3373.332.482.48
ColoradoP123.923.9270.0070.001.571.57
Oregon St.P123.883.8860.7160.710.830.83
USCP123.823.8267.7467.741.361.36
WashingtonP123.823.8260.0060.000.760.76
StanfordP123.813.8148.1548.15-0.14-0.14
Washington St.P123.773.7728.5728.57-1.61-1.61
ArizonaP122.422.4278.1278.121.361.36
Arizona St.P122.362.3648.3948.39-0.08-0.08
UCLAP122.352.3548.3948.39-0.08-0.08
Savannah St.MEAC1.631.6350.0050.000.000.00
Idaho St.BSky1.621.6250.0050.000.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC1.591.5917.2417.24-1.04-1.04
San Diego St.MWC1.581.5874.1974.190.770.77
Southern UtahBSky1.571.5714.8114.81-1.10-1.10
BYUWCC1.561.5670.9770.970.660.66
Wichita St.MVC1.561.5673.3373.330.730.73
TempleAmer1.541.5467.7467.740.550.55
DukeACC1.541.5471.8871.880.670.67
Miami FLACC1.541.5477.4277.420.840.84
IPFWSum1.521.5273.3373.330.710.71
Texas TechB121.521.5263.3363.330.400.40
UNLVMWC0.240.2451.6151.610.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.240.2456.6756.670.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.220.2278.1278.120.120.12
TexasB120.200.2062.5062.500.050.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.200.2083.8783.870.130.13
Fresno St.MWC0.190.1971.8871.880.080.08
Long Beach St.BW0.190.1956.2556.250.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.180.1810.7110.71-0.14-0.14
IdahoBSky0.180.1861.2961.290.040.04
New MexicoMWC0.170.1753.1253.120.010.01
VirginiaACC0.160.1678.7978.790.090.09
Boise St.MWC0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.160.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.150.1566.6766.670.050.05
Northern IowaMVC0.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
KansasB120.150.1587.8887.880.110.11
TCUB120.150.1536.3636.36-0.04-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.150.1524.1424.14-0.08-0.08
BaylorB120.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
ValparaisoHorz0.140.1480.0080.000.090.09
Utah St.MWC0.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.140.1437.5037.50-0.03-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
Portland St.BSky0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
MontanaBSky0.130.1362.0762.070.030.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
Cal St. FullertonBW0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
SMUAmer0.120.1283.3383.330.080.08
NevadaMWC0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
TulsaAmer0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
PortlandWCC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
RiceCUSA0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.120.1282.3582.350.080.08
San DiegoWCC0.120.1227.5927.59-0.05-0.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.120.1279.4179.410.070.07
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
OklahomaB120.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.100.1024.2424.24-0.05-0.05
PennIvy0.100.1037.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0931.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
NavyPat0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
RichmondA100.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
Notre DameACC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
IUPUISum0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
DenverSum0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
ButlerBE0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
West VirginiaB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
BradleyMVC0.070.0712.9012.90-0.05-0.05
Air ForceMWC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
KentuckySEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
PacificWCC0.070.0723.0823.08-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
DavidsonA100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0756.0056.000.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
YaleIvy0.070.0777.7877.780.040.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0529.1729.17-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
MinnesotaB100.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
La SalleA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Penn St.B100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
LafayettePat0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
XavierBE0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
UTSACUSA0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0362.8662.860.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
High PointBSth0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01
IowaB100.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Saint LouisA100.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
StetsonASun0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0272.4172.410.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
CreightonBE0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
HarvardIvy0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0222.8622.86-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0282.1482.140.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
TulaneAmer0.020.0235.2935.29-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
BryantNEC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
ElonCAA0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0220.8320.83-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
SienaMAAC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
VCUA100.020.0270.5970.590.010.01