live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Utah

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:94.3
Current RPI:143
Expected SOS:77
Current SOS:220
Current Record:4-1
Expected Record:15-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:4-1
Expected OOC Record:6-2
Expected OOC RPI:104
Expected OOC SOS:176



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-318.00.01%
22-419.50.04%
21-523.40.19%
20-629.91.18%
19-738.43.12%
18-849.27.23%
17-961.513.47%
16-1076.717.57%
15-1193.519.61%
14-12111.216.50%
13-13130.711.18%
12-14152.06.24%
11-15172.42.63%
10-16194.30.78%
9-17215.90.22%
8-18242.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Utah.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-18Coppin St. (342.9)MEACH94-51W100%0.0
11-25UC Riverside (301.7)BWH85-67W100%0.0
11-28Butler (14.3)BEH59-68L0%0.0
12-1Montana St. (212.6)BSkyH92-84W100%0.0
12-6Utah Valley (141.7)WACH87-80W100%0.0
12-10Xavier (15.9)BEA0-018%-10.9
12-17Prairie View A&M (307.2)SWACH0-098%25.3
12-22San Francisco (160.4)WCCN0-077%8.8
1-1Colorado (75.1)P12H0-054%1.3
1-5Arizona (29.2)P12A0-024%-8.5
1-7Arizona St. (161.2)P12A0-063%4.0
1-12USC (38.7)P12H0-046%-1.1
1-14UCLA (16.9)P12H0-027%-7.5
1-18Washington St. (227.6)P12A0-075%8.0
1-21Washington (106.9)P12A0-042%-2.5
1-26Oregon (31.0)P12H0-038%-3.6
1-28Oregon St. (264.9)P12H0-089%14.8
2-2California (61.1)P12A0-035%-4.8
2-4Stanford (52.1)P12A0-035%-4.5
2-9Washington St. (227.6)P12H0-088%14.2
2-11Washington (106.9)P12H0-062%3.8
2-16Oregon (31.0)P12A0-021%-9.8
2-19Oregon St. (264.9)P12A0-076%8.6
2-23Colorado (75.1)P12A0-034%-5.0
3-2California (61.1)P12H0-055%1.5
3-4Stanford (52.1)P12H0-056%1.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Utah's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Utah's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Utah.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UtahP1228.8626.3063.1654.887.592.57
ColoradoP120.004.7875.0062.920.001.23
Oregon St.P120.004.7125.0024.07-0.00-2.44
OregonP120.004.6875.0072.960.002.15
Washington St.P121.434.6842.8629.99-0.20-1.87
CaliforniaP120.004.6887.5065.450.001.45
StanfordP120.004.6866.6758.910.000.83
WashingtonP120.004.6257.1452.440.000.23
UCLAP121.252.86100.0087.091.252.12
ArizonaP120.622.8677.7870.100.351.15
Arizona St.P120.002.8355.5637.900.00-0.68
USCP120.002.82100.0077.180.001.53
XavierBE0.002.0587.5070.520.000.84
Utah ValleyWAC10.002.0366.6760.093.330.41
ButlerBE10.002.02100.0073.9610.000.97
UC RiversideBW10.001.990.0032.56-10.00-0.69
Montana St.BSky10.001.9950.0058.490.000.34
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.001.9912.5034.26-0.00-0.63
Coppin St.MEAC10.001.920.0017.77-10.00-1.24
San FranciscoWCC0.001.9285.7154.900.000.19
MontanaBSky0.000.2725.0048.70-0.00-0.01
PortlandWCC1.250.2657.1450.730.180.00
Seton HallBE0.000.2675.0054.480.000.02
BYUWCC1.270.2362.5067.080.320.08
Cal PolyBW0.000.2342.8641.13-0.00-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.000.230.0038.43-0.00-0.05
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.230.0022.30-0.00-0.13
CreightonBE0.000.22100.0076.540.000.12
GeorgetownBE0.560.2255.5647.600.06-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.2033.3332.79-0.00-0.07
SeattleWAC0.000.2016.6738.83-0.00-0.05
GonzagaWCC0.710.20100.0092.200.710.17
IdahoBSky0.000.2050.0053.130.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.2071.4355.680.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.560.1842.8658.24-0.080.03
UC DavisBW0.000.1850.0045.660.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.170.0033.71-0.00-0.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1725.0043.29-0.00-0.02
UTSACUSA0.710.1725.0029.90-0.36-0.07
Weber St.BSky0.000.1716.6749.78-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.1744.4453.29-0.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.17100.0089.590.000.13
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.160.0032.29-0.00-0.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.160.0019.08-0.00-0.10
Fresno St.MWC0.000.1657.1443.930.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1428.5733.56-0.00-0.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.620.1316.6740.32-0.42-0.03
UNLVMWC1.250.1362.5042.780.31-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.1337.5031.15-0.00-0.05
Portland St.BSky0.000.1340.0043.88-0.00-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.1342.8640.38-0.00-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1371.4360.090.000.03
NevadaMWC0.000.1377.7871.770.000.06
TCUB120.000.13100.0060.950.000.03
DePaulBE0.000.1371.4337.680.00-0.03
MarquetteBE0.000.1377.7864.250.000.04
VillanovaBE0.000.13100.0084.740.000.09
ProvidenceBE0.000.1377.7859.940.000.03
St. John'sBE0.000.1344.4436.20-0.00-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1050.0064.910.000.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1075.0069.680.000.04
Idaho St.BSky0.710.1012.5029.77-0.54-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.000.1042.8633.51-0.00-0.03
PacificWCC0.000.1042.8645.98-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1042.8650.98-0.000.00
Kansas St.B120.000.1088.8956.710.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.1040.0041.72-0.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.1066.6766.650.000.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1016.6729.83-0.00-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1011.1120.27-0.00-0.06
ValparaisoHorz0.560.1085.7175.250.400.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1057.1472.530.000.04
BaylorB120.000.10100.0076.070.000.05
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1060.0069.260.000.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1050.0066.380.000.03
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1016.6735.90-0.00-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0971.4365.470.000.03
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0933.3352.49-0.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0720.0022.08-0.00-0.04
DenverSum0.710.0742.8645.65-0.10-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0742.8650.82-0.000.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0755.5649.660.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0720.0022.88-0.00-0.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0725.0045.82-0.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.0742.8636.07-0.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0712.5031.01-0.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.710.0712.5037.11-0.54-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0714.2942.77-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0733.3349.39-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.000.0788.8977.470.000.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0771.4358.830.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0777.7866.740.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0725.0041.19-0.00-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0750.0040.690.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.070.0026.22-0.00-0.03
South DakotaSum0.000.0750.0046.820.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0737.5050.92-0.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.620.070.0036.38-0.62-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0633.3352.03-0.000.00
ClemsonACC0.560.0671.4354.560.240.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0657.1448.110.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0657.1451.740.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0013.32-0.00-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0612.5033.31-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0023.90-0.00-0.03
ArmyPat0.000.0642.8650.29-0.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.0650.0056.890.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0662.5050.630.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0642.8644.90-0.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0625.0031.76-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0614.2943.08-0.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0657.1454.200.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0675.0047.520.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0025.17-0.00-0.03
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0076.970.000.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.0620.0060.00-0.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0625.0040.17-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0642.8650.33-0.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.0640.0058.88-0.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0044.700.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.0650.0038.730.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0650.0037.700.00-0.02
VirginiaACC0.000.0688.8978.430.000.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0637.5035.03-0.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.060.0034.69-0.00-0.02
WyomingMWC0.000.0666.6753.730.000.00
YaleIvy0.000.0642.8663.63-0.000.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.620.0612.5030.51-0.47-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0687.5082.440.000.04
KentuckySEC0.000.0687.5082.220.000.04
MissouriSEC0.000.0662.5044.840.00-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0442.8650.57-0.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0340.0054.81-0.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0342.8644.89-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0371.4368.930.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.560.0350.0050.170.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0375.0058.720.000.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.560.0325.0038.98-0.28-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0022.47-0.00-0.02
HofstraCAA0.560.0355.5643.870.06-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0316.6743.53-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.710.0312.5030.17-0.54-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.710.0371.4363.080.310.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.54-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.710.0337.5037.96-0.18-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0311.1149.12-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0020.63-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0362.5074.160.000.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.0333.3355.64-0.000.00
RiceCUSA0.710.0375.0070.570.360.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0025.31-0.00-0.02
BucknellPat0.620.0370.0070.530.250.01
CornellIvy0.000.0328.5730.43-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0362.5046.490.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0375.0075.180.000.02
IndianaB100.000.0387.5074.510.000.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0360.0058.900.000.01
NorthwesternB100.620.0375.0066.090.310.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0350.0044.180.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.620.0355.5646.770.07-0.00
VermontAE0.000.0362.5071.400.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.0377.7876.550.000.02
DavidsonA100.000.0371.4362.990.000.01
LehighPat0.000.0337.5061.81-0.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0377.7865.840.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0360.0058.780.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0357.1444.830.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0362.5058.130.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0357.1459.020.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0377.7862.010.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0377.7877.640.000.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0344.4438.15-0.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0350.0030.320.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0312.5023.82-0.00-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0377.7855.180.000.00